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Author Topic: 增长与风险:瑞士钟表制造商深耕中国市场  (Read 349 times)

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增长与风险:瑞士钟表制造商深耕中国市场

VICTORIA GOMELSKY2021年12月15日制表商必须适应不断变化的市场环境才能接触到中国消费者,自疫情以来,他们转而在国内消费。比如今年早些时候,在上海长泰广场逛街的顾客。 Qilai Shen/Bloomberg, via Getty ImagesFor Swiss watchmakers preoccupied with growth — and let’s be honest, that is virtually all of them — China is the relationship they cannot live without.坦白讲,对全力追求增长的瑞士制表商来说(说实话,几乎无一例外),与中国的关系是它们赖以生存的基础。“It’s going to be the growth market with the biggest opportunities in years to come,” said Jean-Philippe Bertschy, a luxury goods analyst at Vontobel, a private banking and investment management group based in Zurich. “We can talk about the U.S. and Asian markets, but in terms of volume and size, of course it will be China for the foreseeable future.”“未来几年,这都会是机遇最大的增长市场,”苏黎世的私人银行兼投资管理集团冯托贝尔的奢侈品分析师让-菲利普·贝尔奇说道。“我们可以谈论美国和亚洲市场,但就体量与规模而言,在可预见的未来,当然是中国市场。”By all accounts, the scenario that Mr. Bertschy described is already here. After besting the United States and Hong Kong to become Switzerland’s No. 1 export market for watches in 2020, China is neck and neck with the booming U.S. market to retain that position for at least another year.从各个层面上看,贝尔奇所说的情况已经出现了。2020年,中国已经超越了美国和香港,成为瑞士表的第一大出口市场,至少到明年,中国都能与蓬勃发展的美国市场保持并驾齐驱的地位。This year, the value of exports to China from January to October totaled 2.5 billion Swiss francs (almost $2.7 billion), a 39.8 percent increase over the same period in 2020, and a 55.5 percent increase over the same period in 2019.今年1月到10月,瑞士手表对中国的出口总额达到25亿瑞士法郎(约27亿美元,172亿人民币),比去年同期增长39.8%,比2019年同期增长55.5%。Call it the pandemic effect. When the Chinese government clamped down on travel in 2020, Chinese consumers who had become accustomed to buying luxury goods on Europe’s high streets redirected their spending domestically.这可以说是疫情效应。中国政府在2020年限制了旅行,习惯于在欧洲商业街购买奢侈品的中国消费者就转而在国内消费了。As a result, European luxury brands were forced to adapt by expanding their retail operations in China — both within the mainland and Hainan Province, an island in the South China Sea that authorities in Beijing hope will soon rival Hong Kong as a free-trade port, a domestic vacation destination and an international commercial hub.因此,欧洲奢侈品牌不得不适应形势,在中国扩大业务,这既包括大陆,也包括海南省,北京当局希望这个位于南海的岛屿作为自由贸易港、国内度假胜地和国际商业中心的地位能尽快与香港匹敌。No wonder a Swiss watch industry study published by Deloitte in October found that 57 percent of the executives surveyed forecast strong growth in China, and 37 percent of the brands were investing heavily in the Chinese market.难怪德勤10月发布的一份瑞士制表行业研究报告显示,57%的受访高管预计中国市场将出现强劲增长,其中37%的品牌正在向中国市场大举投资。Focus on Growth专注增长While the prospect of future sales in China is catnip to Swiss watch executives, few would deny the difficulties associated with doing business there.尽管瑞士钟表企业高管对未来在华销售的前景十分看好,但很少有人会否认在那里开展业务的困难。These include retail and supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the country’s “zero Covid” strategy; the effects of President Xi Jinping’s “common prosperity” campaign, aimed at discouraging public displays of wealth; and the biggest challenge of all: Many Swiss companies — by virtue of their distance from China, both geographically and culturally — simply cannot keep up with its rapidly changing consumer culture.这包括被中国“新冠清零”策略加剧的零售和供应链中断问题;国家主席习近平的“共同富裕”运动并不鼓励公开炫富;而最大的挑战在于,由于地理和文化上与中国的疏离,许多瑞士企业根本跟不上中国快速变换的消费文化。“There is extraordinary dynamism in terms of the appetite for new things,” Antoine Pin, managing director of Bulgari’s watch division, said on a recent phone call. “The fact that we are far away, and we cannot physically experience what’s new in the market — sometimes we feel we are behind because it requires constant attention and curiosity.”“在对新事物的好奇上,(中国)的市场活力非同一般,”宝格丽腕表事业部总经理安托万·平最近在接受电话采访时表示。“我们地处千里之外,无法亲身体验市场中新事物的现实,有时会让我们觉得落后于人,因为这需要持续的关注和探索。”Almost no watchmaker can afford to be lax about its strategy in China. Take it from Julien Tornare, chief executive of Zenith. Over the summer, he got a taste of the power that celebrities wield in the Chinese market when the brand announced its newest ambassador, the actor and singer Xiao Zhan.基本上,没有哪家制表商敢在中国战略上有所松懈。就拿真力时的首席执行官朱利安·托内尔举例。今年夏天,当该品牌宣布演员兼歌手肖战担任其最新代言人,托内尔感受到了名人效应在中国市场的力量。在宣布演员兼歌手肖战成为代言人时,腕表品牌真力时感受到了与明星合作的力量:其首席执行官表示,宣布代言的消息在微博上获得了3.42亿浏览量,24小时内的销售额比一个月还要多。 VCG, via Getty Images“When we announced him at the beginning of July, we got 342 million views on Weibo,” one of China’s most popular social media platforms, said Mr. Tornare on a recent phone call. “Then, within a few hours, we got nine million views of our video on the announcement. And we sold more watches in 24 hours than in a whole month.”“我们在7月初公布他代言的消息时,在微博上得到了3.42亿的浏览量,”托内尔在最近的电话采访中表示,微博是中国人气最高的社交媒体平台之一。“然后,在几个小时内,我们的官宣视频就得到了900万观看量。我们在24小时内卖出的腕表比一整个月的销量还多。”Zenith operates 15 boutiques across China, has 20 additional points of sale through partner retailers and has, since January, offered e-commerce through JD.com and Tmall. Across all those channels combined, “our retail did 450 percent growth over the prior year, which is basically showing us that people heard the announcement, literally stepped out of their house and went and bought watches,” Mr. Tornare said. “All sorts of watches. Not only the Defy Extreme that Xiao had on his wrist.”真力时在中国拥有15家精品店,算上合作零售商还有另外20个销售点,而且自今年1月以来开始在京东和天猫商城进行电商销售。算上所有这些渠道,“我们的零售额比上一年增长了450%,这基本说明,大家在听到代言的消息后,真的走出家门去买表了,”托内尔说。“他们什么表款都买。不光是肖战戴的那款Defy Extreme。”And despite the Chinese government’s recent pledge to more tightly regulate celebrities’ online information, as part of a wider campaign to tame what it calls “chaotic” fan culture, the prospects for luxury brands that rely on celebrity endorsements in China remain promising.尽管近来中国政府承诺要对名人相关的互联网信息进行更严格的监管,作为对遏制所谓饭圈“乱象”的更广泛行动的一部分,但在中国依靠明星代言的奢侈品牌仍有很大的发展空间。Christopher A. McNally, a professor of political economy at Chaminade University in Honolulu, and an adjunct senior fellow at the East-West Center, said that while the government’s efforts may affect some aspects of marketing, the new regulations don’t pose a big threat to the luxury business.檀香山查明纳德大学政治经济学教授、东西方研究中心兼职高级研究麦智滔(Christopher A. McNally)表示,虽然政府行为可能影响到市场营销的某些方面,但这些新规定不会给奢饰品行业带来太大威胁。“There might be a few upheavals (and the celebrities themselves are really affected and will continue to face further scrutiny),” Mr. McNally wrote in an email. “But for the luxury brands it means continue to adapt, while most likely still facing a very dynamic market.”“可能会有一些动荡(名人本身确实受到影响,并将继续面临进一步审视),”麦智滔在电子邮件中写道。“但对于奢侈品牌来说,还要继续适应,同时很可能仍然面对一个非常活跃的市场。”Covid’s Long Tail新冠的长尾效应Though the pandemic supercharged consumers’ appetites for luxury goods, it also introduced a host of uncertainties.虽然大流行增进了消费者对奢侈品的胃口,但也带来了许多不确定性。A lingering question for watchmakers is how the Chinese government’s “zero Covid” policy will affect the supply chains that keep the industry humming, and to what degree future lockdowns would threaten brick-and-mortar retail.对于制表商来说,一个持续存在的问题是,中国政府的“清零”政策将如何影响维持该行业运转的供应链,以及未来的封锁将在多大程度上威胁实体零售业。为了接触到中国消费者,手表和其他奢侈品牌公司提供了各种购物机会。 上个月在上海举行的中国国际进口博览会上,参观者在观看手表。“If you look at the reality of the numbers, Covid is anecdotal in China, but because of the dimension of the response every isolated case generates, it still has a major impact,” said Pablo Mauron, the Shanghai-based managing director of the China division of the Digital Luxury Group, a Geneva-based consultancy.“如果看一下现实的数字,新冠病毒在中国只是零星出现,但由于每个孤立个案带来的反应是广泛的,它的影响仍然很大,”日内瓦咨询公司数字奢侈品集团的中国分部董事总经理、驻上海的巴勃罗·莫伦说。He referred to an incident at Shanghai Disneyland in late October, when the park was locked down so tens of thousands of park visitors could be tested for Covid-19 because a woman who visited a day earlier tested positive for the virus.他指的是10月下旬在上海迪士尼乐园发生的事件,当时为了对数万名游客进行新冠检测,乐园遭到封锁,因为前一天到访的一名女子被检测出新冠阳性。And while many of the watch industry’s components travel by airfreight, citywide or provincewide lockdowns still have the potential to hamper supply chains and to slow factory production.虽然腕表行业的许多零部件通过空运运输,但全市或全省范围内的封锁仍有可能阻碍供应链,减缓工厂生产。“It’s all a sum of negative factors adding up and making the situation complicated,” said Oliver R. Müller, founder of LuxeConsult, a watch consultancy based near Lausanne, Switzerland.瑞士洛桑附近的钟表咨询公司Luxe Consult的创始人奥利弗·R·穆勒说:“各种负面因素的总和使情况变得复杂。”Digital Luxury数字奢侈品业Navigating the complexities of China’s digital landscape is arguably even more difficult than managing pandemic-era safety controls.应对中国数字环境的复杂性可能比管理大流行时代的安全控制更困难。In a market where KOLs (key opinion leaders) and KOCs (key opinion consumers) increasingly have more sway, luxury labels have had to embrace, or at least tolerate, the explosion of user-generated content on social media, setting up a power struggle with consumers that threatens to unravel their carefully constructed brand narratives.在KOL(关键意见领袖)和KOC(关键意见消费者)影响力越来越大的市场中,奢侈品牌不得不接受或至少忍耐社交媒体上用户生成内容的爆炸式增长,从而引发与消费者的权力斗争,这些消费者可能会瓦解他们精心构建的品牌叙事。奢侈品牌了解到,远离网络销售的旧训在中国行不通,手机是中国的常见配备。Consider the rise of Xiaohongshu, a social shopping platform, also known as Red or Little Red Book, that places user reviews front and center.可以参考社交购物平台小红书的兴起。它将用户评价置于首位与核心。“At some point, consumers in China were looking for content that was more genuine and relatable than the polished content of brands,” Mr. Mauron said. “Red is built to empower word of mouth. And as a result, it evolved both as a place to discover new trends and brands, but also to seek reassurance.“中国的消费者一度在寻找比经品牌润色的故事更真实、更能产生共鸣的内容,”莫伦说。“小红书旨在增强口碑。因此,它不仅演化为发现新趋势和品牌的地方,也成了消除疑虑的地方。“Before an act of purchase, I know I can turn to Red to find genuine content from users,” he added. “People are doing detailed reviews of purchases, and also showcasing purchases they’re not happy about it.”“在购买之前,我知道我可以从小红书用户那里找到真实的内容,”他还说。“人们现在会对购买的商品进行详细测评,并且还会展示让他们不满意的购买。”For Swiss watch executives, the grassroots marketing effort required to manage their reputations on such platforms contradicts everything they thought they knew about luxury.对于瑞士腕表业高管来说,管理他们在此类平台上的声誉所需的草根营销工作与他们心目中的奢侈品知识相矛盾。“What we have been taught with the old Kapferer bible of luxury strategy — ‘Stay away from digital, and don’t sell there’ — is the complete opposite in China,” said Felicitas Morhart, a professor of marketing at the University of Lausanne. In 2020, she founded the Swiss Center for Luxury Research, a think tank that addresses issues about the future of luxury management.“我们从老的凯费洛奢侈品战略圣经中学到的东西——‘远离数字化,不要在那里销售’——在中国完全相反,”洛桑大学市场营销学教授费利西塔斯·莫哈特说。2020年,她创立了瑞士奢侈品研究中心,这是一个解决未来奢侈品管理问题的智库。“The overflow of luxury e-commerce on Tmall, WeChat, the livestreaming of runway shows — luxury is everywhere,” Ms. Morhart said. “It’s not exclusive anymore, it’s something for everyone. And at a fingertip, you can spend money on the next luxury item, which counters the traditional way of presenting luxury in Europe. However, China is so powerful now that they are changing the game.”“奢侈品电商在天猫、微信、时装秀直播中泛滥——奢侈品无处不在,”莫哈特说。“它不再具专属性,每个人都可以拥有。动动手指,你可以花钱购买最新的奢侈品,这与欧洲展示奢侈品的传统方式背道而驰。然而,中国现在如此强大,他们正在改变游戏规则。”On a recent episode of her “Luxury On Air” podcast, Ms. Morhart discussed the philosophical differences between the East and West over the definition of luxury with Yajin Wang, an associate professor of marketing at the China Europe International Business School in Shanghai.在她的“Luxury On Air”播客节目的最新一集中,莫哈特与上海中欧国际工商学院营销学副教授王雅瑾讨论了东西方在奢侈品定义上的哲学差异。“Think about how people experience brands now,” Ms. Wang said on the podcast. “They have all the information available on hand and can make a decision on the spot. They are influenced by KOLs and KOCs, who are so used to buying and receiving things the next day.”“想想人们现在是怎么体验品牌,”王雅瑾在播客中说。“他们随时拥有所有的信息,可以当场做出决定。他们受到KOL和KOC的影响,他们习惯于购买第二天就收到货。”Ms. Wang noted that, even as traditional luxury brands continue to fret about what selling online says about them, failing to adapt to digital opportunities, such as livestreaming, is a surefire way to lose touch with the market in China.王雅瑾指出,尽管传统奢侈品牌仍然担心网上销售对它们的影响,但如果不能适应直播等数字机会,它们必定会与中国市场失之交臂。“The fact is, livestreaming selling is so prevalent here, that’s the way you have to engage with consumers,” Ms. Wang said. “So now major brands all have their livestreaming platforms, have their own KOLs and can sell hundreds of handbags within seconds. That is something luxury stores with the best salesperson could not achieve.”“事实上,直播卖货在这里太盛行了,你必须和消费者这样互动,”王雅瑾说。“所以现在各大品牌都有自己的直播平台,有自己的KOL,可以在几秒钟里卖出几百个手袋。奢侈品商店就算有最好的销售人员也做不到。”‘Common Prosperity’“共同富裕”Of course, the wisdom of buying all those luxury goods is also being called into question, as the government strives to mitigate income inequality by discouraging people from accumulating, and flaunting, their wealth.当然,购买这些奢侈品是否明智也受到质疑,因为政府试图阻止人们积累和炫耀财富,从而缓解收入不平等。奢侈品牌发现网络互动很重要,但实体零售机会也很重要。Mr. McNally of the East-West Center said that luxury consumption is so ingrained among Chinese consumers as a way to convey status that even though “very lavish spending is certainly being frowned upon,” the government’s efforts are not likely to put a big dent in luxury sales.东西方研究中心的麦智滔说,将奢侈品消费作为身份地位的表达,这是中国消费者根深蒂固的观念,即使“非常奢侈的消费肯定会遭到质疑”,但政府的努力也不可能对奢侈品销售产生很大的影响。“The ‘common prosperity’ theme has a long history in China that goes back to Mao and, basically, socialism,” said Mr. McNally, an expert on China’s transition to capitalism. “It’s been used again and again, on and off, but it’s really come to the fore in the last half a year. This is part of Xi Jinping’s mantra to rejuvenate the Chinese nation.麦智滔专门研究中国向资本主义的转型。“‘共同富裕’的主题在中国由来已久,可以追溯到毛泽东时代,以及,简而言之,社会主义,”他说。“这个主题被反复使用,时断时续,但在最近半年中才真正凸显出来。这是习近平中华民族伟大复兴口号的一部分。“What the party would like is a much more socialist ideal, where everybody works for common prosperity, where you do not ostentatiously show off your wealth; indeed you give to charity, you build schools, endow fellowships, build hospitals,” he said. “But for the big chunk of consumers of luxury goods, it might be difficult to change this.”“党想要的是一个更加社会主义的理想社会,每个人都为共同富裕而努力,不炫耀自己的财富;实际上,你可以捐钱给慈善机构,建造学校,捐赠奖学金,建造医院,”他说。“但对于大部分奢侈品消费者来说,改变这一点可能很困难。”Unless a luxury company falls into the cross hairs of Chinese consumers — as famously happened with Dolce & Gabbana in 2018 — the growth that so many brands are banking on in China is, according to many Swiss watchmakers, a sure thing.据许多瑞士钟表制造商的说法,那么多品牌都期望在中国取得的增长肯定是能够实现的——除非这个奢侈品公司引起中国消费者的愤怒,正如2018年杜嘉班纳所发生的著名事件那样。“There is a whole generation of people who are single children,” said Edouard Meylan, chief executive of H. Moser & Cie, an independent Swiss brand that has spent the past two years establishing a foothold in mainland China.“一整代人都是独生子女,”瑞士独立品牌亨利慕时的首席执行官爱德华·梅兰说,该品牌花了两年时间在中国大陆站稳脚跟。“They have two parents, four grandparents and there’s money. That’s why this market is growing. There’s a need — and a huge hunger.”“他们有父母,还有祖父母和外祖父母,而且有钱。所以这个市场正在增长。这里有需求——以及巨大的渴望。”翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.top

Source: 增长与风险:瑞士钟表制造商深耕中国市场



 

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