Forex or The foreign exchange market is very very large financial market in the world, with a daily turnover of over $5 trillion. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. Forex trading refer to the art of buying or selling currency for profit.

Author Topic: Liefert Backtesting wirklich ein genaues Bild zukünftiger Renditen?  (Read 174 times)

Felicitas Heckelei

  • Guest
Liefert Backtesting wirklich ein genaues Bild zukünftiger Renditen?

Also wird uns in jedem Buch, jeder Website und jedem Forum gesagt, dass vergangene Leistungen nicht gleich zukünftigen Leistungen sind, aber die Vergangenheit ist alles, was wir weitermachen müssen. Nachdem ich Dutzende von Kombinationen aus Indikator und Zeitrahmen untersucht habe, habe ich endlich ein Paar gefunden, das in 66 % der Fälle zu gewinnen scheint, zumindest beim Backtesting.

Ich habe 100 Trades im 1-Minuten-Zeitrahmen (ungefähr 2 Monate Daten) rückgetestet und mein Gewinn-Verlust-Verhältnis war 2:1.

Allerdings habe ich dieses seltsame Gefühl, wenn ich es auf einem Live-Konto ausprobieren gehe, plötzlich wird es nicht mehr funktionieren ... Funktionieren also bewährte backgetestete Strategien in der Regel auch in Zukunft für euch? Oder haben Sie festgestellt, dass mit echtem Geld und einem Live-Konto plötzlich die Strategie in die Hose gegangen ist?



Carola Stahl

  • Guest
Wenn Ihre Strategie überoptimiert ist, nein. Aus diesem Grund ist auch das Vorwärtstesten sehr wichtig. Backetesting ist wirklich nützlich. Aber Sie müssen trotzdem in der Lage sein, die Ergebnisse Ihres Backtestings zu analysieren und zu verstehen. Sie müssen verstehen, warum Sie diese Ergebnisse überhaupt erhalten haben. Die Gefahr beim Backtesting besteht darin, zu viel Kurvenanpassung zu versuchen. Wenn Sie keinen Expert Advisor verwenden, führen Sie außerdem Backtests immer während der Tageszeit durch, in der Sie tatsächlich handeln würden. Es sei denn, Sie handeln täglich und höher.



 

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