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Author Topic: Covid-19测试“世界经济”  (Read 637 times)

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on: March 15, 2020, 05:07:04 AM
Covid-19测试“世界经济”

持续超过两个月的日冕病毒爆发预计将持续一段时间。这是对世界经济的考验。对于投资者,必须有适当的投资分配。目前可能不仅仅是现金为王,现金流为王

今年,不会有任何热点影响股票市场和经济。等于Covid-19病毒的问题最初,它似乎只在中国和亚洲传播。但是,当前的情况遍布全球,难以控制感染者。目前,在82个国家中有93,129名感染者,其中50,681名已治愈,其中一半以上(截至2020年3月3日)。

分析师和各个部门曾经评估过对经济的影响不大。并与2003年SARS流行一样快完成,因此需要重新评估情况由于长期情况超出预期还影响全球产品和服务的供求关系尽管公共卫生系统和医疗技术比以前更加发达。但是医疗设备和人员,例如医疗床和医院设备可能不足以支持迅速增加的患者数量

影响这种情况的两个重要因素是“资源”和“现金流”,因为当经济活动由于供应链而减少而导致生产停止时。导致收入下降但是人员和公司的支出仍然像往常一样流动

显而易见的第一件事是资源。流行期间,例如口罩和酒精凝胶世界各地的商店供不应求不仅在泰国,原因还在于病毒和供应的大量需求已从市场上消失。由于中国有些工厂已经关闭

另一面是经济中断所缺少的现金流量。担心关闭工厂以防止在中国扩散除了影响全球生产链中断也使员工的收入增加包括较低的工资,间接费用导致的消费支出减少购物和旅游

“对感染的恐惧”和“对收入下降的恐惧”导致了一个连续的链条,导致全球旅游业遭受重创。包括航空公司,酒店,出租车,大型购物中心和商店开始宣布停止员工的要求不领取工资或解雇工人具有持久效果收入下降的公司和人口或消失了,但仍需偿还同样的债务默认会造成问题该信号将从信用卡,现金卡,租车购买贷款或摩托车开始。按揭和企业贷款需要政府措施的协助为了不产生广泛影响

这次发生的事情看起来像是一种经济考验。由于过去的时期虽然我们看到全球经济放缓但这并不坏,直到导致衰退鉴于公众和公司,财务状况不被认为是高风险点。但是仅仅两个月前才开始爆发的病毒已经导致经济增长放缓,以至于美联储已经降低利率0.5%,以防止经济提前收缩。我们希望看到其他中央银行世界各地的利益也逐渐减少。为了预防和帮助将受到严重影响的经济

在投资方面,因为我们的世界长期处于低利率状态可能会因分配适当的投资而导致无法分散风险,因为它们需要寻求收益并投资过多的风险资产投资者不仅应该为了资本收益而投资资产。但应投资产生现金流量的资产,例如信用评级良好的房地产公司债券或房地产投资信托基金,将其持有在投资组合中,并使用具有足够现金支出能力的适当杠杆。为了在市场低迷期间不必出售资产并获得低价,目前,不仅仅是现金为王但是也许不得不说现金流是国王



 

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