袭击伊朗给美国和世界带来的风险

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袭击伊朗给美国和世界带来的风险

纪思道2025年6月23日President Trump has claimed a “spectacular military success” in destroying three sites in Iran; we’ll see if that’s true. What is clear is that he has pushed America into a war with Iran that he acknowledges may escalate.特朗普总统宣称摧毁伊朗三处目标，取得“辉煌的军事胜利”——此说法是否属实仍有待验证。可以确定的是，他已将美国推入与伊朗的战争中，而且他也承认局势可能升级。Beyond doubts about the legal basis for bombing Iran, I see risks for America and the world ahead revolving around three fundamental unknowns.除了对轰炸伊朗的合法性存疑外，我认为美国和世界未来面临的风险围绕着三个根本性的未知因素展开。The first uncertainty is how Iran will strike back at the United States. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, previously promised, “The harm the U.S. will suffer will definitely be irreparable if they enter this conflict militarily.”第一个不确定性是伊朗将如何反击美国。伊朗最高领袖大阿亚图拉阿里·哈梅内伊此前曾经放话：“如果美国军事介入这场冲突，将遭受无法挽回的后果。”Iran has many options, including attacks on U.S. bases in Iraq, Bahrain and elsewhere in the region. It could also mount cyberattacks, strike American embassies or support terrorist attacks.伊朗手里的选项有不少，包括袭击美军在伊拉克、巴林及中东其他地区的基地。可能还有发动网络攻击、袭击美国大使馆，或者支持恐怖袭击。Another option would be to seek to close the Strait of Hormuz, fully or partly, by attacking shipping or by laying mines. That could be a blow to the world economy, for one-quarter of the world’s oil passes through the strait. Experts have told me that they believe the United States could, over time, reopen the strait, but there might be economic and other costs. When Iran mined the strait in 1988, a mine crippled a U.S. Navy frigate, the Samuel B. Roberts.另一个选择是通过攻击船只或布设水雷完全或部分关闭霍尔木兹海峡。这将重创世界经济，因为全球四分之一的石油输运要经过这里。多位专家告诉我，他们相信美国最终可以重新开放海峡，但需要付出经济和其他代价。1988年伊朗在该海峡布雷时，一颗水雷曾使美国海军护卫舰“塞缪尔·B·罗伯茨”号遭受重创。When the United States assassinated Qassim Suleimani, a top Iranian general, in 2020, Iran launched a missile barrage at American bases in Iraq. A Ukrainian passenger jet was hit by accident, killing all 176 people aboard.2020年，美国暗杀伊朗高级将领卡西姆·苏莱曼尼后，伊朗向伊拉克的美军基地发射了导弹。一架乌克兰客机被意外击中，机上176人全部遇难。My guess is that Iran may want to strike back harder this time, partly to try to re-establish deterrence, but its capacity to do so may be more limited. Israeli strikes might have impaired its ability to mine the strait, for example, and doing so would also impede Iran’s oil shipments to China, annoying its friends in Beijing.我推测，伊朗此次可能想进行更猛烈的报复，一定程度上是为了重树威慑力，但它可能力不从心。例如，以色列的打击可能已经削弱了它在该海峡的布雷能力，而且这样做也会阻碍它自己对中国的石油运输，从而触怒在北京的盟友。But it’s worth remembering something James Mattis, a defense secretary in Trump’s first term, once said: “No war is over until the enemy says it’s over. We may think it over, but in fact, the enemy gets a vote.”但需谨记特朗普第一任期的国防部长的詹姆斯·马蒂斯曾说过的话：“战争终局，不由己定。纵自认胜券在握，敌方仍有终局发言权。”The second uncertainty is whether the Israeli and American strikes have ended Iran’s nuclear efforts or perhaps even accelerated them. That depends, in part, on whether the bombing of Fordo and other sites was as successful as Trump claimed, and that may take time to figure out.第二未知数是以色列与美国的打击究竟终结还是加速了伊朗的核计划。这部分取决于福尔多以及其他地点的轰炸是否如特朗普声称的那样取得成功，而这可能需要时间才能查明真相。It was not clear beforehand that even 30,000-pound American bunker busters would be sufficient to destroy the Fordo enrichment site, which is buried deep in a rock mountain. We also don’t know if Iran has other centrifuges in another, unknown site.即使15吨的美国地堡炸弹，事前也无法确定是否足以摧毁福尔多山体中的铀浓缩设施。我们也不知道伊朗是否在其他未知地点还藏有离心机。There’s broad agreement that a nuclear-armed Iran would be a disaster and would lead other countries in the region to develop their own weapon programs. But Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s director of national intelligence, publicly said this spring that Iran was not building a nuclear weapon; he was dismissive of that.外界普遍认为，一个拥有核武器的伊朗将是一场灾难，并将导致该地区其他国家竞相发展自己的核武器项目。但特朗普的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德今年春天公开表示，伊朗并未制造核武器，他认为该说法不足采信。The risk is that Israeli and American attacks on Iran lead that country to decide it does need nuclear weapons. After all, if it had nuclear weapons, Israel would have been far less likely to bomb it.风险在于，以色列和美国对伊朗的袭击可能导致该国决意发展核武器。毕竟，如果拥有核武器，以色列必不敢轻易轰炸。Iran has already enriched enough fissile material to a high level for as many as 10 nuclear weapons, according to experts; that material was believed to be in the city of Isfahan. Trump said the U.S. struck Isfahan, but it’s not clear whether the site was destroyed.专家指出，伊朗已浓缩足够多的高丰度裂变材料，可制造多达10枚核弹，据信这些材料存于伊斯法罕。特朗普称美军打击了该地，但摧毁与否不明。The third and final question is the largest: Is this the end of the conflict or the beginning?第三个未知数，也是最关键的一个问题：这究竟是冲突的结束还是开始？Optimists such as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel seem to believe that he and the United States can end both Iran’s nuclear program and the Iranian regime. Then again, Netanyahu was a strong supporter of the Iraq war and thought that would bring change to Iran as well; instead, the Iraq war benefited Iran.以色列总理内塔尼亚胡等乐观派认为，美以可终结伊朗的核计划及政权。但需注意，内塔尼亚胡曾是伊拉克战争的坚定支持者，曾希望其改变伊朗，结果伊拉克战争反使伊朗受益。Even if Iran’s enrichment capacity is gone, the expertise to enrich uranium is probably not possible to extinguish. So if the regime remains, this may be more of a setback than an end to the nuclear program.即使伊朗浓缩能力被毁，铀浓缩技术恐难消除。只要政权仍在，这可能只是核计划的一个挫折，而不是终结。As for the idea that bombing will destroy the regime, there’s not much sign of that. Iranian dissidents, like the Nobel Peace Prize winner Narges Mohammadi, decried the bombing last week and called on Trump to stop the bombing, not join it.至于轰炸能否摧毁政权，目前没有什么迹象能证明这一点。伊朗的一些异议人士，如诺贝尔和平奖得主纳尔吉斯·穆罕默迪，上周谴责了以色列的轰炸行为，并呼吁特朗普止战而非参战。In my travels in Iran, I’ve seen how unpopular the regime is. Iran — at the popular level — has always struck me as one of the most pro-American countries in the region, precisely because the government is so resented for corruption, hypocrisy and economic incompetence.我在伊朗旅行时看到了这个政权多么不受欢迎。在民众层面，伊朗一直是我眼中该地区最亲美的国家之一，正是因为政府因腐败、虚伪和经济无能而引起民众的极大厌恶。That pro-Americanism seemed to bode well for the future, after the death of the supreme leader. But a pro-American government seems less likely if we have waged war on Iran. Indeed, regime change might look more like a hard-line coup than anything else. Once again, the range of possibilities is immense, with some quite alarming.在最高领袖去世后，这种亲美倾向本预示着美好的未来。但若美国对伊开战，亲美政府恐难以出现。事实上，政权更迭更有可能是一场强硬派发起的政变。可以预见的是，未来存在各种可能性，其中一些相当令人担忧。Senator Chris Van Hollen, Democrat of Maryland, framed the risks this way: “While we all agree that Iran must not have a nuclear weapon, Trump abandoned diplomatic efforts to achieve that goal and instead chose to unnecessarily endanger American lives, further threaten our armed forces in the region and risk pulling America into another long conflict in the Middle East. The U.S. intelligence community has repeatedly assessed that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon. There was more time for diplomacy to work.”马里兰州民主党参议员克里斯·范霍伦是这样阐述这些风险的：“尽管伊朗不能拥有核武器是大家的共识，但特朗普放弃了实现这一目标的外交努力，反而选择了不必要地危及美国人的生命，进一步威胁我们在该地区的武装力量，并冒着将美国拖入另一场中东长期冲突的风险。美国情报界多次评估认为，伊朗没有在制造核武器，本有更多时间通过外交手段解决。”That seems right to me. Trump’s speech was triumphant, but it’s much too early to be celebrating, and far too much uncertainty remains.在我看来，此言甚为中肯。特朗普发表了胜利的演说，但庆祝为时过早，不确定性依然巨大。纪思道(Nicholas Kristof) 2001起成为时报专栏作家，曾两次获得普利策奖。他最新出版的回忆录名为《追逐希望：一名记者的报道生涯》(“Chasing Hope: A Reporter’s Life”)。欢迎在Twitter上关注他。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。  https://feedx.site

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