EUR/USD: The Dollar Soars


Last week saw two significant events: the first shocked market participants, while the second passed without surprises. Let's examine the details in order.

Since mid-2022, consumer prices in the US have been declining. In July 2022, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was at 9.1%, but by July 2023, it had fallen to 3.0%. However, in October, the CPI rose to 3.7%, then decreased again, and by February 2024, it had dropped to 3.2%. As a result, there was a general perception that inflation had finally been brought under control. The market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would soon begin to ease its monetary policy and start reducing interest rates in June. Two weeks ago, the likelihood of this move was estimated at 70%. The DXY index began to fall, reaching a local low of 103.94 on 9 April. However, the dollar bears' joy was short-lived, as fresh US inflation data released on Wednesday, 10 April, quickly changed the sentiment.

In annual terms, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.5%, marking the highest level in six months. The main drivers of this inflation increase were the rises in rental costs (5.7%) and transportation expenses (10.7%), which clearly caught the markets by surprise. The chances of a rate cut in June plummeted to zero, and the DXY dollar index soared, reaching a peak of 105.23 on the evening of 10 April. Alongside this, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds grew to 4.5%. As is typical in such scenarios, stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq declined, and the EUR/USD pair, after dropping over 150 points, fell to 1.0728.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank, stated that although the regulator is confidently moving towards its 2.0% inflation target, the Federal Reserve leadership still has much work to do to reduce inflation. His colleague, John Williams, President of the New York Fed, noted that the latest inflation data were disappointing and added that economic prospects remain uncertain.

As a result of these and other statements, it is now forecasted that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates only in September. Moreover, investors expect there will be only two rate cuts this year, not three. Some believe that there may not be any rate cuts at all in 2024. However, according to US President Joe Biden, the Fed should still lower the rate in the second half of this year. His insistent request is quite understandable on the eve of the presidential elections. Firstly, it would reduce the cost of servicing the country's enormous national debt, and secondly, it would symbolize a victory over inflation, giving Biden several additional points in the battle for the White House.

After the American inflation reaction, markets took a brief pause, awaiting the European Central Bank (ECB) governing council meeting on 11 April. The ECB has held rates steady at 4.50% since September 2023, which was in line with market expectations as forecasted by all 77 economists surveyed by Reuters. Thus, after some fluctuation, EUR/USD returned to its pre-ECB meeting level.

The ECB press release affirmed the council's firm intention to return inflation to a medium-term target of 2.0% and believed that the key rates contribute significantly to the ongoing disinflation process. Future decisions will ensure that the key rates remain at sufficiently restrictive levels as long as necessary.

It's worth noting that inflation in the 20 Eurozone countries was at 2.4% in March, slightly above the target of 2.0%. In February, the rate was 2.6%, and in January it was 2.8%. Economists surveyed by Reuters believe that inflation will continue to decrease in the coming quarters, but it will not reach 2.0% before the second quarter of 2025.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB), expressed a similar view during a press conference. However, she mentioned that since the Eurozone economy remains weak, to support it, the ECB will not wait for inflation to return to the 2.0% level at every point. Thus, Ms. Lagarde did not rule out that the regulator might start easing its monetary policy significantly before 2025. Strategists from the Italian bank UniCredit forecast that the ECB will cut rates three times this year, by 25 basis points each quarter. The pace of reduction could remain the same next year. Economists from Deutsche Bank also expect that the pan-European regulator will start cutting rates before the Federal Reserve and will do so at a faster pace. Consequently, the widening interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone will contribute to the weakening of the euro.

This medium-term forecast was confirmed last Friday: EUR/USD continued its decline, reaching a local minimum of 1.0622 and closing the five-day period at 1.0640. The DXY index peaked at 106.04. As for the near-term outlook, as of the evening of 12 April, 40% of experts anticipate an upward correction of the pair, while the majority (60%) hold a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, and 85% are red, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone. Trend indicators are 100% bearish. The nearest support levels for the pair are located in the zones 1.0600-1.0620, followed by 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance zones are situated at levels 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0725, 1.0795-1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140.

Next week, on Monday, 15 April, US retail sales data will be released. On Wednesday, it will become clear what is happening with consumer inflation in the Eurozone. It is likely that the refined data will confirm the preliminary results, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March will be reported at 2.4% year-on-year. On Thursday, we traditionally expect data on the number of initial jobless claims from US residents and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

GBP/USD: The Pound Plummets

On Friday, 12 February, the UK's GDP data indicated that the economy is on the path to recovery. Although production has declined compared to last year, the latest data suggests that exiting the shallow recession is quite likely. GDP has grown for the second consecutive month, with the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reporting a 0.1% increase in February on a monthly basis, with January's figures revised upwards to show a 0.3% growth from an earlier 0.2%.

Despite these figures, GBP/USD fell below the key 1.2500 mark due to crumbling hopes for an imminent Fed rate cut. Not even a statement from Bank of England (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene, which highlighted that inflation risks in the UK remain significantly higher than in the US and that markets are mistaken in their rate cut forecasts, could change the situation. "Markets have leaned towards the Fed not cutting rates so soon. In my view, the UK will also not see rate cuts anytime soon," she wrote in her Financial Times column.

Following Greene's remarks, traders now expect no more than two rate cuts from the Bank of England this year, each by 25 basis points. However, this revised forecast did little to support the pound against the dollar, with GBP/USD ending the week at 1.2448.

Analysts are split on the short-term behaviour of GBP/USD: 50% voted for a rebound to the north, and 50% abstained from forecasting. Indicator readings on D1 suggest the following: among oscillators, 10% recommend buying, another 10% are neutral, and 80% indicate selling, with 20% of these signalling oversold conditions. All trend indicators are pointing downwards. If the pair continues south, it will encounter support levels at 1.2425, 1.2375-1.2390, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2110, and 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an increase, resistance will be found at levels 1.2515, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

The most significant days for the British currency next week will be Tuesday and Wednesday. Extensive labor market data from the United Kingdom will be released on Tuesday, 16 April, along with a speech from the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. Wednesday, 17 April, could be even more turbulent and volatile as consumer inflation (CPI) data for the country will be published.

USD/JPY: Is 300.00 Just a Matter of Time?

Bears on USD/JPY continue to hope for its reversal southwards, yet the pair does not stop climbing. Our previous review titled "A Break Above 152.00 – A Matter of Time?" proved true within a very short period. Last week, the pair reached a 34-year high of 153.37, propelled by US inflation reports and increases in the DXY index and yields on 10-year US treasuries. (Considering that it traded above 300.00 in 1974, this is still not the limit).

This surge occurred despite another round of verbal interventions from high-ranking Japanese officials. Finance Minister Suzuki Shunichi reiterated his concern over excessive currency movements and did not rule out any options to combat them. Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi echoed these sentiments almost verbatim. However, the national currency no longer pays any attention to such statements. Only real currency interventions and significant steps towards tightening monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could help, but these have yet to occur.

Analysts at Dutch Rabobank believe the Japanese Ministry of Finance will eventually be forced to act to prevent the price from reaching 155.00. "While a breakthrough of the 152.00 level by USD/JPY might not immediately trigger currency interventions, we see a significant likelihood of such a step," they write. "Assuming that the Bank of Japan may announce a second rate hike later this year and considering expectations that the Fed will indeed cut rates in 2024, Rabobank expects USD/JPY to trade around 150.00 on a monthly horizon and 148.00 on a 3-month horizon.".

Last week, the pair closed at 152.26. Regarding its near future, 25% of experts sided with the bears, another 25% remained neutral, and the remaining 50% voted for further strengthening of the US currency and a rise in the pair. Technical analysis tools are apparently unaware of the fears regarding possible currency interventions, so all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing north, with a quarter of them now in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is around 152.75, followed by 151.55-151.75, 150.80-151.15, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, and 146.50. Defining resistance levels after the pair updated 34-year highs is challenging. The nearest resistance lies in the zone 153.40-153.50, followed by levels 154.40 and 156.25. According to some analysts, the monthly high of June 1990 at around 155.80 and then the reversal high of April 1990 at 160.30 can also serve as references.

No significant events or publications regarding the state of the Japanese economy are planned for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: On the Eve of Hour X

The next halving, when the reward for mining a BTC block will again be halved, is scheduled for Saturday, 20 April. Although this date is approximate and may shift a day or two either way, the closer the Hour X, the hotter the discussions about how the price of the main cryptocurrency will behave before and after this event.

Historically, the value of bitcoin has risen after halvings: it surged by nearly 9000% to $1162 in 2012, by about 4200% to $19800 in 2016, and by 683% to $69000 following the previous halving in May 2020. However, it then crashed to nearly $16,000.

Lucas Kiely, CIO of the financial platform Yield App, believes that we should not expect a seven-fold increase in the price of bitcoin after the upcoming halving. According to Kiely, during the three previous cycles, the halving of miners' rewards heralded a massive increase in volatility levels. After the halving, BTC fell by 30-40% but then soared to unprecedented heights within 480 days. However, this year, he suspects, the cryptocurrency's flight to the Moon will not occur.

Kiely predicts that bitcoin will update its historical maximum reached this March at $73,743. However, the new peak will not exceed the previous one by as much as before, due to the low level of volatility. The specialist attributes the drop in volatility to two factors: 1. an increase in the number of bitcoins in the wallets of hodlers, who own more than 70% of the issued coins, and 2. the creation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, which remove a huge amount of coins from circulation. (In the three months since their inception, the capitalization of 10 such ETFs (excluding the Grayscale fund) has exceeded $12 billion). As a result, bitcoin is becoming a more traditional asset that is less risky but also less likely to yield massive profits. Kiely believes that this factor makes the coin more attractive to institutional investors and older people who prefer to invest in reliable assets and are not interested in gambling.

Ex-CEO of the BitMEX exchange, Arthur Hayes, expects a price drop. In his view, the halving is certainly a bullish catalyst for the crypto market in the medium term. However, prices might fall immediately before and after the event. "The narrative that the halving of block rewards will positively affect cryptocurrency prices has firmly taken root," says the expert. "However, when most market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite usually happens."

Hayes noted that the market would face a reduction in US dollar liquidity in the second half of April, driven by tax season, Fed policies, and the strengthening of the US Treasury's balance sheet. This reduction in liquidity will provide additional stimulus for a "furious sell-off of cryptocurrencies," he believes. "Can the market defy my bearish forecasts and continue to grow? I hope so. I have been involved with cryptocurrency for a long time, so I welcome being proven wrong."

The situation before this halving is indeed very different from before. This change is linked to the large influx of institutional investors through the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs in early January. The influence of ETFs on spot trading is clearly reflected in the reduced market activity on weekends and US public holidays when the exchange funds do not operate. The tax season has also significantly impacted the market for risky assets. Over the last two weeks, inflows into these funds have been significantly below the average mark of $203 million, with recent days seeing an outflow of funds from Grayscale and Ark Invest. Other ETFs are also reporting reduced inflows. All this suggests that Arthur Hayes' concerns are well-founded, and a 30% drop from the current price could send bitcoin down to around $50,000.

Miners, who will lose half their income after the halving, while the costs of obtaining the same amount of coins will increase, could also contribute to a market crash. After the halving in May 2020, the costs of mining rose to $30,000. Currently, the average cost of mining one BTC is $49,900, but after 20 April, according to Ki Newbie trader Ju, CEO of the analytical platform CryptoQuant, it will exceed $80,000. Therefore, the asset must trade above this level for miners to continue making any profit. However, as previously mentioned, a rapid price surge may not occur. This means that small mining companies and individual miners are facing a wave of bankruptcies and acquisitions.

According to Arthur Hayes, the situation might improve in May-June: the US Treasury will "most likely release an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will pump the markets," he says. Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of Skybridge, also holds that spot Bitcoin ETFs, acting as "selling machines," will continue to stimulate demand for the first cryptocurrency from both retail customers and institutional investors. Scaramucci believes that in this cycle, bitcoin's value could increase by 2.5 times, and then continue to rise. "I'm just saying that the capitalization of bitcoin could reach half that of gold, i.e., increase six or even eight times from its current levels," the businessman declared. It's noteworthy that the current capitalization of bitcoin stands at $1.35 trillion, while gold's is at $15.8 trillion. Thus, if BTC reaches half the capitalization of the precious metal, its price would be around $400,000 per coin.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, also places his hopes on spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to him, BTC-ETFs have attracted real institutional investments into the industry for the first time, so he is "very optimistic" about the macroeconomic trends in the crypto industry. In this context, Garlinghouse allowed that the market capitalization of digital assets could double by the end of the year, exceeding $5.0 trillion.

As of the evening of Friday, 12 April, BTC/USD is trading at around $66,900. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.44 trillion ($2.53 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the Extreme Greed zone at 79 points.

In conclusion, a bit of curious statistics: In anticipation of the halving, Deutsche Bank conducted a survey regarding the future price of bitcoin. 15% of respondents stated that within this year, BTC would trade in the range above $40,000 but below $75,000. A third of respondents were confident that the value of the main cryptocurrency would fall below $20,000 early in the next year. Meanwhile, 38% of those surveyed believed that BTC would cease to exist in the market altogether. And finally, about 1% of respondents called bitcoin a complete misunderstanding and speculation.


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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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EUR/USD: The Dollar Weakness Puzzle

What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let's delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity in the US industrial sector from the ISM for March showed the economy is on the rise: PMI increased from 47.8 to 50.3 points, crossing the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. This marked the end of a downward trend lasting over 15 months. With this sector accounting for over 10% of the US GDP, the PMI growth is a vital indicator of an economy that easily withstands high interest rates. Thus, logically, this data benefited the dollar, pushing the pair to 1.0730 - its lowest since 15 February. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East also supported the strengthening of the American currency as a safe haven.

On the following day, Tuesday, preliminary data on inflation in Germany was released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in this powerhouse of the European economy showed a monthly increase of 0.4%, below the forecast of 0.6%. Year-on-year inflation slowed from 2.5% in February to 2.2% in March – the lowest since May 2021. The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell from 2.7% to 2.3%. Such a slowdown in inflation should have fuelled hopes for the ECB to soon start cutting rates, thereby weakening the euro further. However, instead of continuing its downward movement, EUR/USD reversed and moved north. 

Wednesday revealed that inflation is declining not just in Germany but across the Eurozone as a whole. Year-on-year, the preliminary Core Consumer Price Index dropped from 3.1% to 2.9%, surpassing the expectations of 3.0%, and the CPI fell from 2.6% to 2.4% (y/y). Despite this, EUR/USD continued its stubborn climb.

The dollar was not aided by another batch of strong data from the US either. Published macroeconomic figures showed that the number of JOLTS job openings rose to 8.756 million in February compared to 8.748 million the previous month, better than the market forecast. Moreover, the volume of manufacturing orders in February increased by 1.4% after a decrease of 3.8% at the beginning of the year.

A trend reversal began to emerge following speeches by US Federal Reserve officials. For instance, Loretta Mester, President of the Cleveland Fed, stated that the central bank sees a significant risk in easing national monetary policy too soon, especially in the context of a strong labour market and steady economic growth. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve, echoed this sentiment in a speech at the Stanford Graduate School of Business, reiterating that there is no rush to cut rates as inflationary risks persist.

The situation returned to a logical path with a new batch of data from the US labour market released on 04 and 05 April. According to the ADP report on employment levels in the private sector, employers hired 184K new workers in March, exceeding the forecast of 148K and the previous figure of 155K. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) added to the picture with information that non-farm employment (NFP) in the US rose by 303K. This significantly surpassed market expectations of 200K. The BLS report also showed that the unemployment rate in the country dropped to 3.8% from 3.9%.

Given all of the above, it can be expected that the Fed will not rush to ease its monetary policy. The likelihood of a rate cut in June dropped to 61% from 70% a week ago, and according to economists at Commerzbank, it is virtually nil. Naturally, such a shift in expectations should support the strengthening of the national currency. Yet, this has not occurred. EUR/USD has not managed to consolidate below 1.0800, and its last chord was played at 1.0836.

As for the short-term forecast, as of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, 05 April, 50% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further decline of the pair. 10% sided with the euro, and 40% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, 35% red, with the majority in a state of indecision, coloured neutral grey. The trend indicators have a 60:40 ratio in favour of the greens. The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0795-1.0800 zone, followed by 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are at 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

This upcoming week, on Wednesday, 10 April, a whole set of data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the United States will be released. That same day, the Minutes of the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve will be published. The key day of the week will undoubtedly be Thursday, 11 April, when the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting is scheduled. Market participants' attention will be focused not only on the regulator's decisions on the interest rate but also on subsequent comments by its leadership. That day, the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the number of initial jobless claims from US residents will also be published. The working week will conclude with the publication on 12 April of the revised German CPI and the University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index.

GBP/USD: A Result Close to Zero

Last week, final data on the Business Activity Index in the UK for March were revised downwards. The Services PMI was reduced from 53.8 to 53.1, the lowest figure since November of the previous year. A survey of financiers who make decisions at the Bank of England (BoE) showed a slight decrease in inflation expectations to 3.2% (y/y) and an anticipated reduction in wage sizes over the next year. It is noteworthy that these forecast indicators have decreased for the first time in seven months. However, this did not significantly affect GBP/USD dynamics; the tone of its quotes was set by the Dollar Index (DXY).

Starting the past week at 1.2635, the pair finished it at 1.2637. Thus, the result of the week can be considered zero. Analysts' opinions on the behaviour of GBP/USD in the near future are divided as follows: the majority (60%) voted for the pair's fall, 40% remained neutral, and no one wished to side with the bulls. The indicators on D1 are as follows: among the oscillators, 50% recommend selling, 10% suggest buying, and the remaining 40% are in the neutral zone. Trend indicators point south by 60%, north by 40%. If the pair moves south, it will encounter levels and support zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, and 1.2035-1.2070. In case of an increase, it will face resistance at levels 1.2695, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

The calendar for the upcoming week highlights Friday, 12 April, when GDP statistics for the United Kingdom will be released. No other significant events affecting the country's economy are scheduled for the coming days.

USD/JPY: A Break Above 152.00 – A Matter of Time?


For two and a half weeks, USD/JPY has been moving in a sideways channel, unsuccessfully attempting to rise above 152.00. Fear of possible currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance prevents the bulls from breaking this resistance. While actual interventions have not yet occurred, there has been plenty of verbal intervention from high-ranking Japanese officials. For example, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki once again stated that the authorities are closely monitoring the situation and do not exclude any options to combat excessive currency movements.

Despite such statements, the yen remains under pressure, increasing the likelihood of the pair's bullish trend continuing. According to strategists at the American bank Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), the continuation of the upward rally is just a matter of time. They write that a very gradual tightening of the Bank of Japan's policy, coupled with a softer than previously anticipated Federal Reserve easing cycle, serves as a fundamental catalyst.

The market sentiment, according to several analysts, does not contradict BBH's forecast. Currently, according to statistics, most traders (up to 80%) are in sell positions for USD/JPY, which increases the chances of the market moving against the crowd.

The pair finished last week at 151.61. As for its near future, 80% of experts (i.e., the same percentage as the traders) sided with the bears for the pair, voting for further strengthening of the American currency, while the remaining 20% voted otherwise. Technical analysis tools are clearly unaware of fears regarding possible currency interventions. Therefore, all 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 point north, with only 15% of the latter looking south. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 150.85, 149.70-150.00, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistances are placed at the following levels and zones – 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.

No significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Week of Unexpected Announcements

After bitcoin reached a new historical high of $73,743 on 14 March, BTC/USD sharply pulled back, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778. This moment marked a record outflow of funds from exchange-traded funds, with bitcoin accounting for 96%. The departure of institutional capital from the crypto sphere overlapped with many investors and miners' desire to secure profits after updating the price record. At the peak, the realized profit exceeded $2 billion per day, with a third attributable to investors in Grayscale. Analysts at JPMorgan, in a note to investors dated 21 March, mentioned the overbought condition of the cryptocurrency and the risk of a continued correction.

However, a further downfall did not occur; the market sentiment changed. While crypto funds continued to lose assets, crypto exchanges registered an increase in the withdrawal of coins to cold wallets. Whales and sharks returned to accumulating the main cryptocurrency, expecting new BTC records in anticipation of or following the halving. If the net outflow amounted to $888 million in the week of 18-24 March, it changed to an inflow of $860 million in the week of 25-31 March. The record for coin accumulation by hodlers was 25,300 BTC per day. Bitcoin reached a high of $71,675 on 27 March.

The first half of the past week brought a new wave of sales; however, analysts at Coinshares believe that the absolute majority of investment companies and hedge funds are not interested in lowering BTC quotes, and whales will try to prevent a collapse below $60,000. The absence of new price records in those days was compensated by a series of if not sensational, then at least unexpected announcements made by crypto influencers.

For instance, CoinChapter reported that the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, declared meme coins Dogecoin (DOGE) the official currency of the colony to be built on Mars. "The brave colonists heading to the Red Planet will be rough and ruthless people. They won't drag gold bars with them. They will need a fast and fun currency that embodies the spirit of space travel. Dogecoin meets all these criteria," Musk said. One might expect such inspiring words to propel the token's price to cosmic heights, but this did not happen. Instead, it slightly declined. This may be related to the fact that the aforementioned information appeared on 1 April – April Fool's Day or All Fools' Day. Thus, it's possible that Musk was merely joking with his fans by assigning DOGE the status of Martian currency.

Attention was also drawn to a statement by the founder of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), who was sentenced to 25 years in prison. Arrest did not prevent him from giving an interview to ABC News. In it, SBF stated that if he or another FTX employee had remained as CEO, the clients of the bankrupt exchange "would have long returned their money" at the current rate. Hence, the question arises: why not give Sam such an opportunity? Let him first compensate the clients for their losses and then go to jail.

Sam Bankman-Fried is far from the only notable crypto figure of interest to US law enforcement agencies. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder and former CEO of the Binance exchange, also faced court proceedings. However, last week, he made headlines not in the criminal chronicle but in Forbes' new billionaire ranking, where he placed 50th with a net worth of $33 billion. (Bloomberg's own index attributes Zhao with assets amounting to an even larger sum – $45.1 billion). Note that the Forbes list also includes other representatives of the crypto industry. For example, Brian Armstrong, co-founder and CEO of Coinbase, was ranked 180th with $11.2 billion. In total, the publication counted 17 entrepreneurs associated with cryptocurrencies with a net worth of over a billion dollars.

Another unexpected statement came from the pen of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. He is widely known for his numerous constant calls not to save "fake dollars" that will soon turn into worthless paper but to buy gold, silver, and bitcoin. Kiyosaki repeated this mantra again this time, not ruling out that bitcoin could ... crash to zero! According to him, it's possible that the first cryptocurrency is as much a fraud or a Ponzi scheme as the US dollar, euro, yen, or any other "fake" fiat currency.

As of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, 05 April, bitcoin quotes are far from zero; the BTC/USD pair is trading around $67,680. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased and stands at $2.53 trillion ($2.68 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 80 to 79 points, remaining in the Extreme Greed zone.

We have already detailed the history and meaning of halvings in a previous review. Now, we remind you that the upcoming fourth halving is expected to take place soon, most likely on 20 April. After this event, according to Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, "interest in the asset will increase – many will enter FOMO mode. We should see a twofold increase in fair value. In the current cycle, it stands at ~$75,000 with downward adjustments. [...] Thus, [by the end of the year] we get $150,000," he shared his calculations on CNBC. Yusko also believes that "historically, about nine months after the event, a price peak will be formed before the next bear market."

The senior manager called the first cryptocurrency the "dominant token" and the "best form of gold". Regarding long-term prospects, the expert stated that bitcoin "can easily" increase tenfold over the next decade. Separately, the head of Morgan Creek Capital mentioned that his hedge fund likes Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, although they fall short of the "king-bitcoin". Mark Yusko did not mention Elon Musk's "Martian" Dogecoin at all...

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Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– FTX exchange founder Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) regrets the actions that led him to a 25-year prison sentence. He revealed this in an interview with ABC News. "It's a major part of what I think about every day," added the former businessman, now inmate. According to him, FTX's insolvency was the result of several "bad decisions" he made in 2022.
SBF noted that he "heard and saw the desperation and disappointment from thousands of clients" who "deserve full compensation at current prices." In Bankman-Fried's view, had he or another FTX employee remained as CEO, clients would "have long been refunded." SBF also criticized the decision not to relaunch the exchange.
FTX's former CEO's lawyers plan to appeal based on some testimonies at the trial that "significantly distorted what actually happened."

– The rise in bitcoin's value after the halving will become "parabolic" and allow its price to reach $150,000 by year's end. Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, gave this forecast on CNBC. "Interest in the asset will increase after the halving – many will enter into FOMO mode. We should see a doubling of the fair value. In the current cycle, it's ~$75,000, with adjustments downwards. […] Thus, we get $150,000," Yusko shared his calculations. He also believes that "historically, about nine months after the event, a price peak will form before the next bear market."
The top manager called the first cryptocurrency a "dominant token" and the "best form of gold." Regarding long-term prospects, the expert stated that bitcoin "could easily" increase tenfold over the next decade. Separately, Yusko noted that his hedge fund likes Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche, though they fall short of the "king bitcoin."

– "Rich Dad Poor Dad" best-selling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki once again advised not to save "fake fiat dollars" but to buy gold, silver, or bitcoin. He believes the US has gone bankrupt by printing $1 trillion every 90 days just to pay bills. "The entire US dollar is American debt. [I am concerned about] our political, banking, and financial leaders. They are either incompetent, corrupt, or both. Our leaders have no idea how to control the growing national debt and the US bond market, as well as the excessively inflated stock market," Kiyosaki stated.
However, the entrepreneur made an unexpected statement. According to him, bitcoin could crash to zero as it's not excluded that the first cryptocurrency is the same kind of fraud or Ponzi scheme as the US dollar, euro, yen, or any other "fake" fiat currency.

– "Gold bug" and staunch bitcoin opponent Peter Schiff suggested that bitcoin's popularity among Newbie trader people is mainly due to "ignorance and lack of experience." The third factor is that during the short lifespan of Newbie trader people, bitcoin has increased in price much more than gold. But by the time they gain the wisdom that comes with age, bitcoin will collapse. According to the economist, bitcoin's success depends exclusively on the activity of its buyers, making it a significantly riskier investment compared to tangible assets such as real estate or gold.

– CoinChapter reported that Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk declared meme coins Dogecoin (DOGE) the official currency of the colony to be established on Mars. "The brave colonists who will head to the Red Planet will be rough and merciless people. They will not carry gold bars with them. They will need a fast and fun currency that embodies the spirit of space travel. Dogecoin meets all these criteria," Musk stated.
It's important to note that the information above was released on April 1st – April Fool's Day or All Fools' Day. Therefore, it's possible that the entrepreneur was just joking with his fans by assigning DOGE the status of Martian currency.

– Bitcoin Depot CEO Brandon Mintz lamented that in 2023, for the first time in a decade, the number of crypto ATMs installed worldwide significantly decreased. In his opinion, this was related to the bearish trend in the crypto market, which was exacerbated by the collapse of the FTX exchange and the bankruptcy of several other companies. However, in 2024, the situation began to improve: according to CoinATMRadar, 1,469 new crypto ATMs were installed in just the first three months of 2024. In contrast, about 3,000 devices were closed during the same period in 2023.

– Researchers at PeckShield published a new report on hacks in the cryptocurrency space. They noted that in March 2024, there were numerous incidents, with at least one hacking attack occurring every day. As a result, cybercriminals stole more than $187 million this month, of which about $100 million was recovered.

– We have previously told the story of one of the first crypto investors, an IT specialist named James Howells from Newport (Wales, UK). Back in 2013, James's girlfriend decided to clean the house. Into the trash went all the items she deemed unnecessary. Among the trash that was sent to the dump was a hard drive containing the data for a crypto wallet with 8000 BTC.
Since then, Howells has not lost hope of retrieving what was lost. He narrowed his search to a section of the city dump where, under grassy hills, about 100,000 tonnes of trash lie. Howells was ready to dig through this entire mountain of waste to find the disk. However, local authorities rejected his request due to environmental preservation concerns. Now, to deter numerous "treasure hunters," a fence has been erected around the dump, and round-the-clock security with video cameras has been organized, because at the current rate, this small hard drive is worth about $520 million.

– Binance co-founder and former CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) ranked 50th in Forbes' new billionaire ranking, with a net worth of $33 billion. Bloomberg's own index attributes Zhao with assets amounting to even more – $45.1 billion. The Forbes list also includes other representatives of the crypto industry. Thus, Coinbase co-founder and CEO Brian Armstrong found himself in 180th place with $11.2 billion. In total, the publication counted 17 entrepreneurs connected with cryptocurrencies with a net worth of over one billion dollars.

– The outflow of institutional capital from the crypto sphere in mid-March triggered a drop in bitcoin and other digital currencies. However, Coinshares believes that the vast majority of investment companies and hedge funds are not interested in a decline in BTC quotes. The whales will try not to allow a collapse below $60,000. As a result, just last week, large investors directed $862 million into digital asset-oriented instruments.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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USD/JPY: How the BoJ Sank the Yen

In theory, if the interest rate rises, the currency strengthens. But that's just in theory. Reality can differ significantly, as demonstrated by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday, March 19.

Until that point, the BoJ had been the only central bank in the world to maintain a negative interest rate level of -0.1% since February 2016. Now, for the first time in 17 years, the regulator raised it to a range of 0.0-0.1% per annum. It also abandoned control over the yield of ten-year government bonds (YCC). As media reports, this move "represents a departure from the most aggressive and unconventional monetary easing policy we have seen in modern history." Yet, following this momentous decision, instead of appreciating, the yen ... plummeted, and USD/JPY reached a high of 151.85. Analysts believe this happened because each of these central bank actions met market expectations and had already been priced in.

Data on inflation in Japan for February, published towards the end of the workweek, offered some support to the Japanese currency. The country's Statistical Bureau reported that the annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8%, up from 2.2% previously. As a result, investors concluded that the persistence of price pressure above the target level of 2.0% would allow the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at a positive level.

However, maintaining rates does not mean increasing them. And as economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, wrote, the yen's position depends more on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts than on a rate hike by the BoJ. They stated: "It will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond volatility around the rate hike until rates in the US are lowered."

The yen received another, but very weak, support from growing speculations about possible intervention by the Japanese government in the currency sphere, in simpler terms, about currency interventions. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, did declare that currency movements should be stable and that he is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations. However, these were merely words, not concrete actions, thus they didn't significantly aid the national currency. As a result, the week concluded with the pair marking the final note at 151.43.

Regarding the near future of USD/JPY, the bearish camp for the pair comprises 50% of experts, 40% remain undecided, and 10% voted for further strengthening of the US currency. Technical analysis tools seem to be unaware of rumours about possible currency interventions. Consequently, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing upwards, with 20% of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels are found at 150.85, 149.70, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.

On Friday, March 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. Besides this, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin – The Calm Before the Halving


After bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14, a wave of selloffs and profit-taking by short-term speculators followed. BTC/USD sharply retreated, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778, after which the leading cryptocurrency, in anticipation of the halving, began to gain momentum again.

It's worth recalling that a halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, after another 210,000 blocks have been mined, and results in the mining reward for a new block in the bitcoin blockchain being cut in half. This naturally raises the question: why is this done? The halving is designed as a mechanism to combat inflation. As miners' rewards decrease, fewer new coins are produced with each round. This is intended to maintain a scarcity of bitcoin in the market and positively impact the token's price from a supply and demand perspective.

The total issuance of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins. As of December 2023, miners have already extracted 19.5 million coins, which is nearly 93% of the total volume. Halvings will continue until the last bitcoin is mined, which is forecasted to occur sometime between 2040 and 2048. In 2040 (the 8th halving), miners' rewards will be 0.1953125 BTC, and in 2048 (the 10th halving) – 0.048828125 BTC. After this, miners will earn income solely from transaction fees. The upcoming, fourth halving is most likely to take place on April 20 this year, with the reward for mined blocks decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Thanks to the hype surrounding spot bitcoin ETFs and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in anticipation of the halving, a certain scarcity of the main cryptocurrency is already observable. According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of BTC is owned by state and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. In total, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. About 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years. Adding to these figures the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined coins are already unavailable to other private investors.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead in terms of bitcoin ownership volumes with 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively. MicroStrategy has become the largest holder of bitcoins among public companies with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, while Tesla and Coinbase Global share the third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively. Among other, non-public, private companies, Block.one leads in ownership level with 164,000 BTC, according to available information. It is followed by the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is taken by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.

In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among countries, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same period. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively. The specialists justify their forecast by the dynamics of gold following the approval of bitcoin ETFs and the optimization of the precious metal to its digital counterpart in an 80% to 20% ratio.

According to Standard Chartered experts, bitcoin could appreciate further – up to $250,000 – if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion. Sovereign investment funds' actions could also accelerate growth rates. "We see an increasing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," say the bank's analysts.

Dan Tapiero, CEO of investment firm 10T Holdings, mentioned a similar figure – $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential to triple from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Furthermore, from the bear market lows to the 2021 peak, digital gold increased in value 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 target as a positive scenario.

"It's hard to pinpoint exact markers and timing in these matters. I think we will reach that [zone] within the next 18-24 months, perhaps even sooner," Tapiero believes. "The supply cut during the rapid increase in demand for ETFs along with the halving indicate a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull the rest along with it." The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" for the approval of ETFs based on Ethereum. However, he hesitated to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach the $100,000 mark before the halving, deemed this target plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the recent correction does not affect growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the likelihood of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, March 22, BTC/USD is trading around $63,000. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased to $2.39 trillion (from $2.58 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 83 to 75 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.

Despite the recent halt in bitcoin's decline, some experts do not rule out the possibility that BTC/USD could take another dip southward. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is still low compared to previous cycles. This implies that with an increase in volatility, not only new highs but also new lows could be set.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that bitcoin could fall by 33% after the halving. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the floor is at $50,000, and the price of the coin will never fall below that level unless some dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is primarily driven by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policy of the US Federal Reserve. This was evidenced by the fact that the price of bitcoin hardly noticed the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 20.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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CryptoNews of the Week


– Roger Ver, introducing his new book "The Hijacking of Bitcoin: The Hidden Story of BTC," announced that bitcoin has been captured by a group of insiders. According to this experienced investor, this development has altered the project's philosophy. Jeffrey Tucker, an economist, and the founder of the Brownstone Institute, who contributed to the book, lamented that the story it tells is tragic because the opportunity to change the world with bitcoin was stolen. Bitcoin could have liberated society, but it failed to do so.
Previously, Roger Ver had stated that he considers Ethereum more valuable, despite its lower market capitalisation, because the ETH project does much more for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies than bitcoin.

– According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of the first cryptocurrency is owned by various organisations, including government and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. Together, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. Around 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead the cryptocurrency market in terms of bitcoin volume, holding 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively.
Among public companies, MicroStrategy has emerged as the largest holder of bitcoins, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, followed by Tesla and Coinbase Global in third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively.
In the realm of private companies, according to available information, Block.one leads in ownership levels with 164,000 BTC. Following it is the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is occupied by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.
In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among states, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.
Adding these figures to the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined BTC is unavailable to other private investors. This, to some extent, confirms the conclusion made by Roger Ver.

– Around 48% of voters who own digital assets plan to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, according to a survey by Paradigm. Another 38% prefer the current President, Joe Biden, while 13% are undecided about their candidate choice. Additionally, 69% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current state of the country's financial system. 49% of those surveyed stated they do not trust either of the U.S. parties regarding digital asset issues.
The survey data indicates that 19% of registered American voters own digital assets, 7% of respondents own cryptocurrencies valued at over $1,000, and 1% own more than $10,000 worth of cryptocurrencies.

– A British court has ruled that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto. The legal proceedings initiated by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA) against Wright began in 2021. The organisation filed a lawsuit against the businessman to prevent him from claiming intellectual property rights to bitcoin technology. The court has now delivered its verdict: "Firstly, Dr. Wright is not the author of the bitcoin white paper. Secondly, Wright is not the individual who acted under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto from 2008 to 2011. Thirdly, he is not the person who created the bitcoin system. And fourthly, Wright is not the author of the original versions of the first cryptocurrency's software."
Furthermore, the court has suspended two other cases involving Wright – lawsuits against Coinbase and Block. It is possible that a restraining order will be issued to prevent Wright from ever claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, though a final decision on this matter has yet to be made.

– India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, has taken a firm stance on bitcoin and other crypto-assets, stating that they cannot be considered real money. According to her, cryptocurrencies are primarily used for trading, speculation, and profit-making. They do not function as traditional currencies issued by central banks and thus thrive solely due to market manipulations.
Ms. Sitharaman highlighted that cryptocurrencies are still unregulated in India, and this issue has been raised at the G20 forum. The minister believes it is crucial for G20 member countries to establish a unified international regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which would help manage their risks.

– The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, with assets of approximately $1.5 trillion, will consider portfolio diversification options, including the inclusion of the leading cryptocurrency. This initiative is part of an exploration of innovative investment strategies and is a response to economic and social changes as well as rapid technological developments.
Currently, the GPIF invests in traditional assets such as domestic and foreign stocks and bonds, as well as alternative instruments like real estate.

– Analysts at Standard Chartered have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with Ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same date. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively.
The change in expectations is driven by the excitement around spot bitcoin ETFs and the sharp increase in the asset's price since January. The analysts justified their forecast based on the dynamics of gold following the approval of ETFs and the optimization of the ratio of the precious metal to its digital counterpart at 80% to 20%.
According to Standard Chartered experts, if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion, bitcoin could increase in value even more – up to $250,000. Actions by sovereign wealth funds could also accelerate growth rates. "We see a growing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," the analysts say.

– Dan Tapiero, CEO of the investment company 10T Holdings, has also mentioned a figure of $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential for a threefold increase from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Moreover, from the lows of the bear market to the peak of 2021, digital gold increased in value by 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 benchmark as a positive scenario.
"It's hard to set specific points and times in such matters. I think we will reach this [zone] within the next 18-24 months, maybe even sooner," Tapiero believes. "A reduction in supply during a rapid increase in demand for ETFs, along with the halving, indicates a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull everything else up with it."
The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" of approval for exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. However, he found it difficult to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

– After reaching a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14th, bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, losing about 13%. Some experts do not rule out further temporary decreases. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is actually low compared to previous cycles, mainly due to the options market. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the bottom line is at $50,000, and the coin's price will never fall below it unless a dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is mainly supported by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policies of the US Federal Reserve. JPMorgan analysts have more cautious feelings towards BTC, stating that the halving is unlikely to be a bullish catalyst for the coin. According to their forecast, bitcoin could fall by 33% after this event.

– The artificial intelligence of OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach $100,000 on the eve of the halving, acknowledged this target as plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the current correction in no way affects the growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the probability of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

– BeInCrypto's editorial team discovered the origin of rumours claiming Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto. It appears that Daniel Peña, also known as the "Trillion Dollar Man," an American businessman and founder of Quantum Leap Advantage, initiated them. His first statements linking the Russian President to cryptocurrency date back to 2019. Since then, the entrepreneur has repeatedly supported his theory. Peña believes that Putin benefits from the creation of bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency could undermine the position of the US dollar in the financial market and destabilize the American economy. Despite the lack of evidence for these claims, this theory has taken root and has become a meme over the years.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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EUR/USD: Stubborn Inflation Refuses to Back Down

Market participants last week were keenly focused on inflation data from the US. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 20 March, and these figures will undoubtedly influence the Committee's decision on interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that more evidence of a sustainable slowdown in inflation would be necessary to start cutting rates. However, it appears that such evidence is lacking. Data released on Tuesday, 12 March, showed that prices, instead of decreasing, have been on the rise.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, was expected to increase by 0.3% but actually rose by 0.4% month-on-month. Year-on-year, inflation in February increased by 3.8%, slightly above the forecast of 3.7%. The overall CPI showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual rise of 3.2%. Thus, the overall CPI has increased by 4.2% on an annual basis over the last three months, marking the highest level since June of the previous year. Certainly, this surge in inflation is not a cause for panic, but it is too early to declare a complete victory over it, for which the Fed raised rates to the highest level in 40 years.

Additional arguments for the Federal Reserve to refrain from hastily cutting rates emerged on Thursday, 14 March. It was found that industrial inflation, measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), increased from 0.3% to 0.6% month-on-month, against market expectations of 0.3%. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds sharply increased, providing support to the dollar.

Beyond CPI and PPI, there's a third argument in favour of maintaining the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy: the labour market, which remains relatively robust. Despite the highest unemployment rate increase in two years (from 3.7% to 3.9%), the number of new jobs created outside of the agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls) reached 275K, significantly exceeding both the previous figure of 229K and the forecast of 198K. Additionally, real wages continued to grow year-on-year in February.

Against the backdrop mentioned above, the euro faced pressure last week. Moderately dovish statements from officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) did not provide any relief. On Thursday, the bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, in an interview with CNBC, stated that wages are moving in the right direction. However, he added, the EU's monetary authorities avoid giving clear forecasts regarding further steps and must make decisions at each specific meeting.

According to Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and head of the National Bank of Slovakia, it would be wise to wait until June for the first rate cut. "Rushing this step is unwise and disadvantageous," he said. "Upside risks to inflation are alive and well. More convincing data on inflation prospects are needed. [And] only in June will we reach the threshold of confidence in this matter." "But the discussion on easing should start now," added the head of the National Bank of Slovakia.

Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and head of the Bank of Finland, spoke similarly. He confirmed the start of discussions on reducing the restrictive aspect of the bank's monetary policy. When asked about the appropriate time to begin rate cuts, he carefully replied, "If inflation continues to decline, it would be possible to gradually start lifting the foot off the monetary policy brake pedal."

The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, published on 15 March, showed a slight decrease to 76.5 from the previous value and forecast of 76.9. Following this, EUR/USD ended the working week at 1.0886. As for the near-term outlook, as of the evening of Friday, 15 March, 75% of experts voted for a strengthening dollar and a decline in the pair, with 15% siding with the euro and 10% taking a neutral stance. Oscillator readings on the D1 are evenly distributed: one-third are coloured green, one-third red, and one-third neutral grey. Trend indicators' force ratio is such: 35% recommend selling the pair, while 65% recommend buying it. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0845-1.0865, followed by 1.0800, then 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are found at 1.0920, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140, and 1.1230-1.1275.

In the coming week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for the Eurozone will be released on Monday, 18 March. However, as the ECB meeting has already taken place, this indicator is unlikely to provoke a strong market reaction. The main event of the week, as mentioned, will be the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 20 March. It is expected to be the fifth consecutive meeting where the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 5.50%. The greatest interest for economists and investors will likely lie in the subsequent Federal Reserve leadership press conference, where they hope to hear hints about the start date for monetary policy easing. Currently, according to CME FedWatch, there is a 40% chance that the reduction will begin in June.

Apart from these events, a comprehensive package of data on business activity (PMI) across various sectors of the economy in the US, Germany, and the Eurozone, set to be released on Thursday, 21 March, also presents interest. On the same day, traditional data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US will be published.

GBP/USD: More Negatives than Positives for the Pound

Last week, the dollar was recovering from the losses it suffered in the first ten days of March. On one hand, GBP/USD was pressured by rising inflation in the US, and on the other hand, by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom. Data published on Tuesday, 12 March, confirmed the cooling of the country's labour market. In January, employment decreased by 21K (against a forecasted increase of 10K), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% (forecasted at 3.8%). Additionally, the number of claims for unemployment benefits sharply increased from 3.1K in January to 16.8K in February. Meanwhile, the wage growth of UK workers slowed down, marking the slowest pace since 2022.

Market participants' pessimism increased on Wednesday, 13 March. It was revealed that although the country's GDP grew by 0.2% in January, industrial production fell from +0.6% to -0.2% month-on-month and from +0.6% to +0.5% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector saw an even sharper decline, from +0.8% to 0.0% month-on-month and from +2.3% to +2.0% year-on-year.

All these data strengthen the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) soon shifting to a more dovish monetary policy. Some estimates suggest this could happen as early as May. If data from the United Kingdom continue to worsen, the probability of a pound interest rate cut in the coming months will only increase, pushing GBP/USD further down.

"GBP/USD could fall as the UK continues to stagnate and the Bank of England finally begins to cut rates," analysts at the French bank Societe Generale believe. Economists at the Dutch Rabobank also see potential for significant strengthening of the dollar against the British currency over a 1 to 3-month horizon. However, Rabobank forecasts that the interest rate differential, signs of improvement in the UK's economic outlook, combined with the prospect of uneventful elections in the country and a relatively stable political backdrop, should provide moderate support to the pound. "We believe," the bank's economists write, "that over a 12-month perspective, GBP/USD will recover to the 1.3000 area.".

The pair closed the week at 1.2734. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were divided as follows: a majority (65%) voted for a decline, 20% for an increase, and 15% remained neutral. Among the D1 oscillators, 40% point north, only 10% south, and 50% east. Trend indicators have 65% looking upwards and 35% in the opposite direction. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, and 1.2330. In the event of an upward move, resistance will be met at levels 1.2755, 1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

In addition to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the upcoming week will also feature a meeting of the Bank of England, scheduled for Thursday, 21 March. The day before, we will learn about the inflation situation (CPI) in the United Kingdom, and just before the BoE meeting, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in the country will be released. The workweek will conclude with the publication of retail sales data in the United Kingdom.

continued below...

USD/JPY: A Great Week for the Yen

If the past week was very good for the pound, it was simply great for the Japanese yen. USD/JPY reached a local minimum of 146.47 on the evening of Friday, 8 March, meaning the yen reclaimed more than 360 points from the dollar.

In addition to the weakening of the dollar, the yen was bolstered by rumours that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may soon decide to normalize its monetary policy. Citing informed sources, Reuters reported that "if the results of the spring wage negotiations [on 13 March] are strong, the Bank of Japan may not have to wait until April" to exit its negative interest rate policy, and that the BoJ "is leaning towards ending negative rates as early as March."

Another report by Jiji News mentioned that "the Bank of Japan is considering a new quantitative framework for its monetary policy, which will outline the prospects for future government bond purchases." "The Bank of Japan," Jiji continues, "will review its Yield Curve Control (YCC) as part of considering a new quantitative policy.".

Thus, Wednesday, 13 March, could become a significant day for the Japanese currency, as could 19 March, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled. It's possible the regulator might increase the interest rate on this day for the first time since 2016. However, analysts at the French Natixis Bank believe that if there is an increase, it would be very slight. "In reality, the depreciation of the yen is beneficial for the Japanese economy," the bank's analysts write. "It helps to bring inflation back to the 2% target and stimulates exports. Since Japan has very significant net foreign assets, primarily in dollars and euros, a depreciation of the yen leads to a capital gain in yen value of these external assets." "As a result," Natixis concludes, "one should not expect Japan to move to a tighter monetary policy. At most, a symbolic increase in the base rate can be expected."

Commerzbank holds a similar position, believing that the yen's potential is limited, and a strong appreciation, especially in the medium and long term, should not be expected. According to Commerzbank economists, this is due to the Bank of Japan's lack of capacity for a pronounced normalization of interest rates.

USD/JPY concluded last week at 147.06. As for the near future, it's impossible to come to a consensus: 20% sided with the bears, an equal 20% with the bulls, and 60% remained undecided. Among the oscillators on the D1 chart, only 15% are coloured in green, while the remaining 85% are in red, with 40% indicating an oversold condition. The distribution of strength among trend indicators is exactly the same: 85% to 15% in favour of the reds. The nearest support levels are found at 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 147.65, 148.25-148.40, 149.20, 150.00, 150.85, 151.55-152.00, and 153.15.

In the upcoming week's calendar, noteworthy events include the announcement of Japan's Q4 2023 GDP volume on Monday, 11 March. Additionally, as previously mentioned, the wage negotiations on 13 March are of significant interest. No other major events related to the Japanese economy are planned for the near future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Two Historic Records in One Week

In less than 24 hours on 4 March, bitcoin appreciated by approximately 10% and reached the mark of $69,016. This was a new (but not the last) historical record, surpassing the previous one of $68,917 set on 10 November 2021. Most top-10 crypto assets also saw a 10-30% increase in value over the week.

This surge in bitcoin is attributed to purchases by a supposed billionaire from Qatar, who flew in on his private jet to Madeira for the three-day Bitcoin Atlantis conference. Keychainx CEO Robert Rodin wrote that he saw something at Madeira airport that "could forever change bitcoin." BTC maximalist Max Keiser, in turn, shared a video in which the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, greets the Emir of Qatar with the words "It's happening!"

What exactly Rodin and Bukele meant is unknown. However, this was enough to fuel discussions about Qatar adding bitcoins to its balance sheet. The accuracy of such claims is unproven, but social networks are abuzz with speculation on this matter. It's worth noting that rumours about one or two sovereign wealth funds or investment companies from the Middle East secretly buying up bitcoins have been circulating for several months.

Following the update of its historical high, bitcoin then plunged, dropping to $59,107 on 5 March, with forced liquidations on the futures market reaching $1 billion. However, this dip was short-lived as whales bought up much of the supply, not only returning the market to its previous dynamics but also setting a new record: on 8 March, the leading cryptocurrency reached $69,972. This is largely because most market participants anticipate its continued growth, surpassing at least the $100,000 mark.

According to trader Gareth Soloway, the upcoming bitcoin halving in April does not guarantee by itself that the digital gold will reach the mentioned size. Soloway identifies the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve as the deciding factor. The Fed's reluctance to aggressively cut interest rates could support high inflation, potentially contributing to bitcoin's upward trend. "If we see an increase in liquidity (which will definitely happen), then bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in 2024," writes Soloway. However, on its way to this round figure, the trader does not rule out a short-term bearish correction.

Experts at JPMorgan also discuss the possibility that the halving could trigger a sharp decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The algorithmic reduction of the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC will decrease mining profitability. Based on this, economists at JPMorgan, led by senior analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the price will fall to $42,000 after the halving. "The cost of mining bitcoin empirically acts as a floor for its price," their report states. "After the halving, this metric will be $42,000." "This is also the level towards which, in our view, the price will gravitate once the post-halving euphoria subsides in April," note JPMorgan's experts.

According to the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, the primary cryptocurrency has transitioned from the accumulation phase to the growth phase. The accumulation phase is characterized by a relatively smooth price increase, low volatility, and moderate corrections, with the maximum drawdown in the concluded cycle not exceeding 22%. The growth phase presents a different picture. Historical data shows that during movements towards new highs, drawdowns ranged from 36% to 71%. JPMorgan has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $42,000. At the current price, this correction would be approximately 36-40%, aligning with the lower end of the specified range. A 70% correction, however, could lead to a significantly deeper fall.

How could this happen? Initially, to stay afloat, miners, whose incomes will be halved, will begin to sell off their stocks. Then, institutional and short-term speculators, looking to lock in profits, will join in. Concurrently, stop orders will start to trigger, leading to an avalanche-like plunge in quotations. And if investors who have put their money into spot BTC-ETFs also join this "crypto-fall", the depth of the drop could be hard to imagine. It's worth noting that in January-February, BTC-ETFs attracted 75% of all investments in the main cryptocurrency, and there are no guarantees that panic sentiment won't affect the depositors of these funds.

However deep the correction might be, bitcoin, in the opinion of many experts, will still remain within the long-term upward trend. "We have entered the era of the bitcoin gold rush. It started in January 2024 and will last approximately until November 2034," believes MicroStrategy's founder Michael Saylor. According to his calculations, by that time, miners will have extracted 99% of all coins, marking the beginning of the "growth phase." (According to BitcoinTreasuries, 93.5% has already been mined as of now).

Saylor believes that currently, only 10-20% of asset managers are interested in spot BTC-ETFs. In the future, as existing barriers are removed, this figure will approach 100%. "When they [managers] can buy BTC through a bank, platform, or prime broker, they'll spend $50 million in an hour," he stated. The founder of MicroStrategy also expressed confidence that "there will come a day when bitcoin will surpass gold and will be traded more than the S&P 500 ETFs."

In the next 15 years, bitcoin could appreciate 64 times to reach $10.63 million. This forecast was made by Professor Giovanni Santostasi based on a power-law model. According to the scientist, this model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price change of the first cryptocurrency over long periods. However, over shorter spans, which the media primarily focus on, the quotations behave chaotically. Unlike the S2F model by the analyst known as PlanB, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential. In other words, the price of bitcoin is not expected to constantly increase over time. According to Santostasi's calculations, digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026, then drop to $60,000, and after that, it will continue its wave-like growth to $10.63 million.

(For reference: A power-law relationship is a mathematical relationship between two quantities where a relative change in one quantity leads to a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the initial values of those quantities. The manifestation of this law can be found across a wide range of natural phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of stock market changes.).

As of the evening of Friday, 8 March, BTC/USD is trading at around $68,100. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly risen from 80 to 81 points, entering the Extreme Greed zone. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.60 trillion (up from $2.34 trillion a week ago), with the main cryptocurrency's dominance index at nearly 52%, and its capitalization exceeding $1.35 trillion. This surpasses the fiat currency market capitalizations of Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the UAE, Mexico, and many other countries. A few days ago, BTC surpassed the Russian ruble in capitalization, taking the 14th spot in the overall ranking of the largest currencies, with the Swiss franc as its nearest competitor. Amid news that bitcoin exceeded the rouble, jokes flooded the internet suggesting Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto. Ethereum ranked 28th, performing better than the Chilean peso but not as well as the Turkish lira.

In the overall ranking of the most capitalized assets, which includes precious metals and companies, bitcoin secured the 10th place. It surpassed Berkshire Hathaway, the company of well-known cryptocurrency critic billionaire Warren Buffett, but did not reach Meta. The top 3 are currently occupied by gold, Microsoft, and Apple.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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The new mega super lottery by brokerage firm NordFX kicked off on 8 March this year, featuring a multitude of cash prizes ranging from $250 to $5,000, amounting to a total of $100,000.

The Super Lottery with a prize pool of $100,000 has become a tradition, as NordFX has been hosting it for the fourth consecutive year. Over this time, more than 500 clients of this broker have emerged as winners. Unlike traders' contests, the lottery's undeniable advantage is that both experienced professionals and newcomers have completely equal chances of winning. Another benefit is that lottery winners receive their prizes in real money, not bonuses, which they can either use for further trading or withdraw without any restrictions.

There's also a third advantage: becoming a lottery participant and getting a chance to win one or even several prizes is very straightforward. You just need to have a Pro account with NordFX (or register and open a new one), fund it with $200, and simply trade. By making a trade turnover of just 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), a trader automatically receives a virtual lottery ticket. The number of tickets per participant is unlimited. The more deposits and the higher the turnover, the more lottery tickets a participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming one of the winners. The Super Lottery from NordFX is an excellent opportunity for traders not only to try their luck in winning cash prizes but also to increase their trading activity and possibly discover new trading strategies.

The slogan of this year's lottery, "Your 202+4 Chances to Win in 2024," makes it clear there will be plenty of prizes. This year, winners will receive 202 prizes (140 of $250, 30 of $500, 20 of $750, and 12 of $1,250) plus an additional 4 super prizes of $5,000 each. The total prize pool of $100,000 is divided into three parts: $20,000 will be played out in both the summer and autumn draws, and the third, New Year's, and most significant draw will have $60,000 in prizes.

For more details, visit NordFX's website. You can become a participant of the Mega Super Lottery 2024 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market