中菲海上冲突频繁，马科斯与西方国家加强外交威慑中国

[SuHaiJack]

中菲海上冲突频繁，马科斯与西方国家加强外交威慑中国

黄瑞黎, CAMILLE ELEMIA2024年3月19日菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯和德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨上周在柏林的总理府。 Markus Schreiber/Associated PressWith China aggressively asserting its claims on the South China Sea, President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines spent his first year on the job beefing up Manila’s alliance with its oldest ally, the United States. Now he is shoring up support from a wider and new network of partners.由于中国好斗地坚持对南中国海的主权主张，菲律宾总统小费迪南德·马科斯把上任后的第一年花在了加强与本国最古老的盟友美国的联盟上。现在，他正在用一个更广泛的合作伙伴新网络来稳固支持。Mr. Marcos is adding a new intensity to his muscular foreign policy at a critical moment in his country’s territorial dispute with Beijing. Maritime clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels have become more frequent in recent months.在菲律宾与中国领土争端的关键时刻，马科斯正在加大自己强硬外交政策的强度。近几个月来，中国船只与菲律宾船只的海上冲突变得更加频繁。In January, Mr. Marcos and the leaders of Vietnam, another country fighting off Chinese claims to the crucial waterway, pledged closer cooperation between their coast guards. This month, Mr. Marcos clinched a maritime cooperation deal with Australia. And this past week, he took his pitch to Europe.今年1月，马科斯和越南领导人承诺让两国的海岸警卫队更密切地合作。越南是抗争中国对这个重要航道水域主权主张的又一个国家。本月，马科斯与澳大利亚成功地签署了一项海事合作协议。上周，他把宣传做到了欧洲。“It has to be recognized that the South China Sea handles 60 percent of the trade of the entire world. So, it’s not solely the interest of the Philippines, or of ASEAN, or of the Indo-Pacific region, but the entire world,” Mr. Marcos said on Tuesday in Berlin, referring to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.“必须承认，全世界60%的贸易经过南中国海。因此，这不仅是菲律宾一国的利益，或是东南亚国家联盟或印太地区的利益，而且是整个世界的利益，”马科斯上周二在柏林说。Standing alongside Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Mr. Marcos, the first Philippine president to visit Germany in a decade, added, “That is why it’s in all our interest to keep it as a safe passage for all international commerce that goes on in the South China Sea.”马科斯是十年来第一位访问德国的菲律宾总统，站在德国总理奥拉夫·肖尔茨旁边的马科斯还表示：“为了我们所有人的利益，必须确保南中国海作为所有国际贸易的安全通道。”This flurry of diplomacy, analysts said, might ultimately help to deter China. But they also acknowledged that Beijing was going to continue doubling down on its territorial claims, increasing the risks of a conflict that could ultimately draw in the United States, the Philippines’ oldest treaty ally. Washington has repeatedly condemned Beijing’s actions and has vowed to come to the aid of Manila in the event of an armed conflict.分析人士说，这些接二连三的外交活动也许最终会有助于威慑中国。但他们也承认，中国政府会继续对自己的领土主张变本加厉，导致发生冲突的风险增加，最终可能把菲律宾最古老的条约盟友美国卷进来。华盛顿已多次谴责北京的行动，并誓言一旦发生武装冲突，将帮助马尼拉。中国海警船向第二托马斯沙洲附近的一艘菲律宾海军包租的船只发射高压水枪，摄于上月。The foreign policy strategy adopted by Mr. Marcos, who took office in June 2022, is almost the opposite of the approach of his predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte. While Mr. Duterte spurned the West and courted China, Mr. Marcos has revived and cemented ties with traditional security partners like the United States and Japan. He has also cultivated new relations with the likes of Sweden and France, and his government has pushed for arms deals and military drills.马科斯2022年6月上任后采取的外交政策战略与其前任罗德里戈·杜特地的几乎完全相反。杜特地一脚踢开了西方，去讨好中国，马科斯不仅恢复并巩固了与美国和日本等传统安全伙伴的关系，还与瑞典、法国等国家发展出新关系，他的政府还推进了军火交易和军事演习。Tensions flared again this month when Chinese boats blocked the Philippine vessels off the Second Thomas Shoal, a contested reef 120 miles off the coast of the western province of Palawan. The confrontation culminated in Chinese and Philippine coast guard vessels colliding.紧张局势本月再度升级，中国船只在距离菲律宾西部省份巴拉望海岸200公里的第二托马斯沙洲（Second Thomas Shoal，中国称之为仁爱礁——译注）附近拦截了菲律宾船只。这次冲突最终导致了中国海警船与菲律宾海警船相撞。Mr. Marcos told reporters then there was no reason yet to invoke the mutual defense treaty with the United States.马科斯当时对记者说，还没有理由启动与美国的共同防御条约。China claims 90 percent of the South China Sea, some of it hundreds of miles from the mainland and in waters surrounding Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia and the Philippines. In the past decade or so, China has asserted ever greater control over these waters, using two island chains called the Paracels and the Spratlys to expand its military footprint by building and fortifying outposts and airstrips.中国声称对南中国海90%的水域拥有主权，包括一些距离中国大陆好几百公里，位于越南、马来西亚、文莱、印度尼西亚和菲律宾周边的水域。在过去十年左右，中国加强了对这些水域的控制，通过在帕拉塞尔群岛（中国称之为西沙群岛——译注）和斯普拉特利群岛（中国称之为南沙群岛——译注）这两个岛链上建设和增强前哨基地和机场，扩大了它的军事足迹。The militarization of the Spratly Islands allowed China to maintain a round-the-clock presence in waters about 500 miles from the coast of China. Chinese boats stationed there then repeatedly harassed Filipino fishing boats in an area that an international tribunal in The Hague had ruled was a traditional fishing ground of the Philippines, Vietnam and other nations. The Chinese presence also prevented Manila from fully exploring oil and gas deposits in the surrounding water.斯普拉特利群岛的军事化让中国能在距离本国海岸800公里的水域保持全天候存在。驻扎在那里的中国船只一再骚扰附近水域的菲律宾渔船，海牙的国际法庭已将该水域裁定为菲律宾、越南和其他国家的传统渔场。中国在该水域的军事存在也阻碍了菲律宾在其周边水域充分勘探石油和天然气储量。China has blamed the Philippines for the frequent clashes in the South China Sea.中国将南中国海的频繁冲突归咎于菲律宾。中国在距离菲律宾巴拉望岛不远的美济礁上修造的建筑。Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, in December admonished the Philippines for “changing its policy stance, reneging on its commitments and continuing to provoke and cause trouble at sea.”中国外交部长王毅曾在去年12月指责菲律宾“改变了迄今的政策立场，背弃了自己作出的承诺，不断在海上挑衅滋事”。Mr. Wang also issued a warning: “If the Philippines misjudges the situation, insists on going its own way, or even colludes with malicious external forces to continue causing trouble and chaos, China will definitely safeguard its rights in accordance with the law and respond resolutely.”王毅还警告说，“如果菲方误判形势，一意孤行，甚至与不怀好意的外部势力相互勾联，继续生事生乱，中方必将依法维权，坚决回应。”Two weeks later, the Philippines announced that it had signed agreements with Britain and Canada to increase defense cooperation. They were part of 10 security agreements that Mr. Marcos has signed with seven countries since last year, according to a tally of public statements.两周后，菲律宾宣布与英国和加拿大签署了加强防务合作的协议。据对公开声明的统计，马科斯去年与七个国家签署了十项安全协议，与英国和加拿大的协议是其中的一部分。“China is basically pushing us closer to the United States and to the other countries that have already indicated their support, as far as Germany and as far as the Czech Republic,” said Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor of international studies at De La Salle University in Manila.“中国基本上是在把我们推向美国以其他已示支持的国家，包括远在欧洲的德国和捷克共和国，”位于马尼拉的德拉萨勒大学国际研究教授雷纳托·克鲁兹·德卡斯特罗说。On Thursday, Petr Pavel, the president of the Czech Republic, said he was willing to cooperate with the Philippines in defense and cybersecurity, adding that his country “fully” supports Manila in the South China Sea.上周四，捷克共和国总统彼得·帕维尔表示，他愿意在国防和网络安全方面与菲律宾合作，还说，他的国家在南中国海问题上“完全”支持菲律宾政府。“To us, South China Sea may seem to be far, far away, but if you take into account the percentage of share of world or global trade that passes through this area, any disruption of theses routes would have an adverse impact on Europe, not only in the form of shortage of goods but also soaring prices,” Mr. Pavel told reporters at a joint news conference with Mr. Marcos. “Which is why we have to pay attention to this topic.”“南中国海对我们来说似乎很远很远，但如果考虑到经过该水域的世界或全球贸易的百分比份额，这些航线受到任何干扰都会对欧洲产生不利影响，不仅会导致商品短缺，而且会导致价格飞涨，”帕维尔在与马科斯举行的联合新闻发布会上对记者们说。“这就是我们为什么必须关注这个主题的原因。”美国总统拜登与马科斯去年5月在椭圆形办公室。New allies, Mr. De Castro said, are welcome because the Philippines cannot rely on the United States alone, especially if former President Donald J. Trump returns to power next year.德卡斯特罗说，菲律宾欢迎新盟友，因为菲律宾不能只靠美国，尤其是如果前总统特朗普明年重新掌权的话。“The U.S. is simply — even Americans would say — so unstable right now, the political system is so volatile, look at what’s happening with the U.S. military assistance to Ukraine,” he said. “And I’m not saying that Trump would win, but there’s always uncertainty because of how unstable American domestic politics is.”“美国现在非常不稳定（就连美国人也会这么说），美国的政治体制非常无定性，看看美国对乌克兰的军事援助正在发生的情况就知道了，”德卡斯特罗说。“我并不是说特朗普会赢，但总有不确定性，因为美国的国内政治如此之不稳定。”Another important calculus for Mr. Marcos, analysts said, is securing investments for the Philippines.分析人士说，马科斯的另一个重要考量是确保对菲律宾的投资。“That means that we can really be assertive, we can really protect the South China Sea interests without thinking of the economic backlash that China might impose on us,” said Aries A. AruSame Currency Pair, the chairman of the political science department of the University of the Philippines Diliman.“这意味着我们能真正坚定信心，我们能真正保护我们在南中国海的利益，而不必考虑中国可能对我们施加的经济报复，”菲律宾迪利曼大学政治学系主任阿里斯·阿鲁盖说。Even India, which has been silent on the South China Sea dispute for years, announced last June that it would provide loans with preferential rates to the Philippines for its military modernization. In August, both countries signed agreements to cooperate in the coast guard sectors.就连多年来对南中国海争端持沉默态度的印度也在去年6月宣布，将向菲律宾提供用于军事现代化的优惠利率贷款。两国已在去年8月签署了海岸警卫队领域的合作协议。Last week, when he was in Australia, Mr. Marcos warned that the constant clashes between Filipino and Chinese vessels have increased the risks of miscalculation.上周，马科斯在澳大利亚时警告称，菲律宾船只与中国船只不断发生冲突，已增加了发生误判的风险。“The potential for outright conflict is much higher now than it was before,” he said. “We worry in the Philippines because it could come from not a strategic decision by anyone saying, ‘OK, we’re going to war,’ but just by some servicemen making a mistake, or some action that’s misunderstood.”“现在发生直接冲突的可能性比以前大多了，”他说。“我们菲律宾人对此感到担忧，因为导致冲突的可能不是某个人做出的‘好，我们要开战’的战略决定，而只是某些军人犯下错误，或采取了某些被误解的行动。”黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》东南亚分社社长。她是因报道新冠大流行获得2021年普利策公共服务奖的团队成员之一。点击此处查看更多关于她的信息。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

Source: 中菲海上冲突频繁，马科斯与西方国家加强外交威慑中国