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Author Topic: “一个中华”能解决台湾的困境吗?  (Read 125 times)

SuHaiJack

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“一个中华”能解决台湾的困境吗?

FARAH STOCKMAN2023年3月13日台湾前副总统吕秀莲(中)在台北举行的和平集会上。 Chiang Ying-Ying/Associated PressTAIPEI, Taiwan — Three months after Russia invaded Ukraine, Annette Lu, a former vice president of Taiwan, stood before reporters to promote a  Earnings-price ratioly unpopular idea. China and Taiwan, she said, should form a commonwealth that would be integrated economically, like the European Union, but remain separate politically. She called it One Zhonghua — a word that means “Chinese” in a cultural, ethnic or literary sense but is distinct from the word that refers to China in a political sense. It was a wink at the Chinese Communist Party’s insistence that there is only one China and that Taiwan is an inextricable part of it.台湾台北——俄罗斯入侵乌克兰三个月后,台湾前副总统吕秀莲向记者提了一个极不受欢迎的想法。她说,中国大陆和台湾应该形成一个经济融合的共同体,就像欧盟一样,但在政治上保持独立。她称之为“一个中华”(One Zhonghua)——“中华”一词意指文化、民族或文学意义上的“中国”,但有别于政治意义上的“中国”。这种说法是对中共主张的一种视而不见,即只有一个中国,台湾是其不可分割的一部分。One Zhonghua is not a new idea. The notion of a commonwealth or federation of independent Chinese states has been touted as a solution to Taiwan’s dilemma for decades by academics, editorials and minor officials on both sides of the strait. But when Russian troops invaded Ukraine, it surfaced again.“一个中华”并不是一个新概念。几十年来,海峡两岸的学者、社论和低级别官员一直鼓吹,建立共同体或由独立的中华诸国建立联邦是解决台湾困境的方法。但当俄罗斯军队入侵乌克兰时,这一说法再次浮现。“For the first time, Taiwanese people realized that war is real,” Andrew Hsia, vice chair of the K.M.T. opposition party in Taiwan, told me last month. He had just returned from a rare and controversial visit to mainland China — an attempt to improve the quality of life for Taiwanese people working in China and get to know the new Chinese leaders responsible for policy toward the island. He was dubious of the idea of a commonwealth but said that “any idea that can maintain the existing way of life and avoid conflict is worthy of discussion.”台湾在野党国民党副主席夏立言上个月告诉我:“台湾人民第一次意识到战争是真实存在的。”他刚刚结束对中国大陆的一次罕见且有争议的访问——这次访问旨在改善在大陆工作的台湾人的生活境况,并结识中国负责台湾政策的新领导。他对共同体的想法持怀疑态度,但表示“任何能够维持现有生活方式并避免冲突的提议都值得探讨”。One Zhonghua is a fantasy, of course. President Xi Jinping of China, who considers Taiwan a rebellious province, has shown no appetite for anything that would leave Taiwan’s sovereignty intact. In fact, China is expected to announce a sped-up timeline for reunifying with the island by force if necessary. Across the water, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan stands firm on the island’s right to determine its own fate and rejects anything that smacks of a union with China.当然,一个中华是个幻想。中国国家主席习近平认为台湾是一个反叛的省份,他不愿意做任何让台湾保持完好主权的事情。事实上,如果有必要,预计中国将宣布加快在必要时武力统一台湾的时间表。在海峡另一端的台湾总统蔡英文坚定地主张台湾拥有决定自己命运的权利,并拒绝任何带有与中国联合意味的做法。Yet the quixotic One Zhonghua campaign gets at the heart of the unsolved riddle of what Taiwan’s relationship to China should be. The vast majority of Taiwanese people want to keep the status quo of undeclared, de facto independence, according to polls. Yet roughly 40 percent also said in a recent survey that they want better economic relations with China while a smaller percentage said economic ties should be reduced. Some one million to two million Taiwanese — nearly 10 percent of the island’s total population — are estimated to live and work on the mainland.然而,“一个中华“宣传运动却触及了台湾与中国应该保持怎样的关系这一未解之谜的核心。民意调查显示,绝大多数台湾人希望保持未声明但事实上的独立现状。但在最近的一项调查中,大约40%的人也表示他们希望与中国建立更好的经济关系,相对较少的人表示应该减少经济关系。据估计,大约有100万至200万台湾人——占该岛总人口的近10%——在大陆生活和工作。As the rivalry between the United States and China heats up, many Taiwanese people are asking themselves how to preserve their incredibly innovative and prosperous open society. Should they prepare to fight like Ukraine or try to hammer out a deal to avoid conflict? How Taiwanese voters answer that question will determine who wins Taiwan’s presidential election in January — and the fate of the island’s fledgling democracy.随着美国和中国之间的竞争升温,许多台湾人都在问自己,怎样才能保住他们极具创新和繁荣的开放社会。他们是应该准备像乌克兰那样开战,还是应该努力敲定协议以避免冲突?台湾选民如何回答这个问题,将决定谁能赢得明年1月的台湾总统选举——以及岛上羽翼渐丰的民主会走向何方。For the Democratic Progressive Party, the party currently in power, the best way to avoid a war is to bolster ties with the United States and buy enough weapons to make China think twice about launching an invasion. These days, Joseph Wu, the foreign minister, keeps a Ukrainian flag signed by Ukrainian soldiers in a prominent place in his office, next to two pairs of boxing gloves that were given to him by the mayor of Kyiv. In December, the administration announced that it was extending the length of compulsory military service from four months to one year.对于目前执政的民进党来说,避免战争的最好办法是加强与美国的关系,购买足够的武器,让中国不敢贸然入侵。这些天,外交部长吴钊燮在他办公室的显眼位置放着一面乌克兰士兵签名的乌克兰国旗,旁边是基辅市长送给他的两副拳击手套。去年12月,政府宣布将义务兵役期从四个月延长至一年。Yet Taiwan is not Ukraine. In political terms, it is not recognized by the United Nations as an independent country. In practical terms, it’s an island that would run out of natural gas in roughly eight days if it were ever blockaded. The Chinese economy, despite significant challenges, is vastly larger, more diverse and more attractive than the Russian economy. On the eve of the invasion, the Russian military was roughly four times larger than that of Ukraine. Today, the Chinese military is nearly 12 times larger than that of Taiwan.然而,台湾不是乌克兰。在政治上,它不被联合国承认为一个独立的国家。实际上,如果台湾被封锁,这个岛屿将在大约八天内耗尽天然气。中国经济虽然面临着重大挑战,但仍比俄罗斯经济规模更大、更多样化、更具吸引力。在入侵前夕,俄罗斯军队的规模大约是乌克兰的四倍。今天,中国军队的规模是台湾的近12倍。Regardless of whether Taiwanese people admit it, part of the country’s prosperity comes from the fact that it has been a gateway to the biggest market in the world. At a nightclub in Taipei, I hung out with a concert promoter who couldn’t wait to put on another event in Shanghai, where he earns more money, and a Nigerian British female rapper named Brazy who came to Taiwan to learn to rap in Mandarin, hoping that her songs would go viral in China.不管台湾人是否承认,台湾的繁荣一定程度上是因为它是通往世界最大市场的门户。在台北的一家夜店,我结识了一位迫不及待想在上海再次举办活动的演唱会主办商,他在那里赚得更多,还有一位名叫Brazy的尼日利亚裔英国女说唱歌手,她来台湾学习用普通话说唱,希望她的歌曲能在中国走红。These days, a feeling of uncertainty hangs over Taipei. Almost nobody I spoke with had confidence that Taiwan could withstand an attack without the direct involvement of American soldiers. Bill Stanton, a retired American diplomat who once headed the equivalent of the U.S. embassy in Taipei and also served in Beijing during the Tiananmen Square massacre, told me he’d faced bullies as a kid and that he sticks up for Taiwan for that reason: “They are small, they are easy to pick on,” he said. “I think we all need to stand up for the little guy.”这些天来,一种不确定的感觉笼罩着台北。与我交谈过的人几乎都不相信台湾能够在没有美国军队直接介入的情况下经受住打击。比尔·斯坦顿是一位退休的美国外交官,他曾领导相当于美国驻台北大使馆的机构,还在天安门广场大屠杀期间在北京任职,他告诉我,他小时候曾被欺负过,因此他会为台湾挺身而出:“他们块头小,容易被欺负,”他说。“我认为我们都需要为这个小家伙挺身而出。”President Biden has vowed four times over the past year or so to do just that, partly because defending Taiwan is seen as integral to defending Japan, South Korea and international shipping. But American policy has been deliberately ambiguous about exactly what support the United States would provide Taiwan in the event of a crisis. Social media accounts have flooded the island with warnings that Americans will ultimately abandon them to their fate.在过去一年左右的时间里,拜登总统曾四次发誓要这样做,部分原因是保卫台湾被视为保卫日本、韩国和国际航运的重要组成部分。但美国的政策一直故意含糊其辞,不明确在台湾发生危机时美国将提供什么支持。台湾社交媒体上充斥着美国人最终会抛弃他们的警告。There’s also been a flurry of arrests of alleged spies, including a Taiwanese military official who was reportedly paid to surrender on command.还有一连串涉嫌间谍的逮捕行动,其中包括一名台湾军官,据报道,他接受了贿赂,让他在收到命令后投降。Recently, Matt Pottinger, who was a National Security Council staff member in the Trump administration, gave a pep talk in Taipei. “A fiery resolve to defend one’s homeland, family and way of life can compensate for inferior equipment, inferior numbers and inferior odds,” he advised in a speech he gave in Mandarin, which cited the lessons from Ukraine. “But will must be cultivated.”近日,曾是特朗普政府国家安全委员会幕僚的马特·波廷格在台北发表了鼓舞人心的讲话。“高昂的保家卫国的战斗意志可以成为保卫和平的一种威慑力量,”他在用普通话发表的演讲中建议道,他在演讲中引用了乌克兰的教训。“高昂意志是需要培养的。”For the D.P.P., part of that fiery resolve involves reorienting trade away from China and toward Japan, Australia, New Zealand and the United States, a project known as the “Southbound” policy.对民进党来说,这种高昂意志包括将贸易从中国转向日本、澳大利亚、新西兰和美国,这是一个称为“南向”的政策。That might work when it comes to computer chips, Taiwan’s most lucrative industry. But fish farmers and orchard owners are skeptical that the Chinese market, which buys about 42 percent of the island’s exports, can be replaced. Last summer, China banned Taiwanese grouper and wax apples, leading some farmers to change their stance. “Of course we want to have an independent Taiwan,” one orchard owner told Lung Ying-tai, a former minister of culture. “But at what cost?” Taiwanese officials vowed to find new markets for the fish or consume them domestically. During a fancy lunch in Taipei, the deputy foreign minister removed the lid on a succulent dish and declared, “This is our freedom fish!”在台湾利润最丰厚的电脑芯片行业,这种做法可能会奏效。但养鱼户和果园主怀疑购买该岛约42%出口产品的中国市场能否被取代。去年夏天,中国禁止进口台湾石斑鱼和苹果,导致一些农民改变了立场。“我们当然希望台湾独立,”一位果园主对前文化部长龙应台说。“但代价是什么?”台湾官员誓言要为这些鱼找到新的市场,或者在国内消费。在台北,副外长在一场精致的午餐宴席上掀开一盘鲜美的菜,宣布:“这是我们的自由鱼!”Mr. Hsia, the vice chair of the K.M.T., told me that he asked for the ban on grouper to be lifted during his recent trip to China. He described the response of Chinese officials as cooperative and said they welcomed a delegation from Taiwan’s fish farming association days later. If China ends up lifting the ban, it would bolster the K.M.T.’s claim that it is the party that knows how to handle China.国民党副主席夏立言告诉我,他在最近访问中国时曾要求取消对石斑鱼的禁令。他说,中国官员表现出愿意合作的姿态,并说他们欢迎台湾渔业协会代表团几天后到访。如果中国最终解除禁令,这将支持国民党的说法——该党知道如何与中国打交道。The K.M.T. has a long history of arguing for economic integration with China. The party’s roots date back to the nationalist army that lost a civil war against Chinese Communists in 1949 and escaped to Taiwan to regroup. K.M.T. officials, who initially ruled as a military dictatorship, were so committed to the dream of returning to the mainland for a rematch that, a Ming Chuan University professor told me, they routinely barred active-duty soldiers from getting married, out of fear soldiers would be diverted from their cause. The closest that Taiwan has ever come to One Zhonghua occurred between 2008 and 2016, under the administration of President Ying-jeou of the K.M.T. He signed a raft of agreements with China, including a sweetheart trade deal that allowed many Taiwanese goods to be sold in China with reduced tariffs, without giving China the same access in return. That deal remains in place, and it’s seen as vital to Taiwan’s economy today.国民党一直主张与中国进行经济融合。该党的根源可以追溯到1949年与中国共产党的内战中失利、逃到台湾重整旗鼓的国民革命军。国民党官员最初以军事独裁的方式统治台湾,铭传大学一位教授告诉我,他们非常执着于反攻大陆的梦想,以至于往往禁止现役士兵结婚,因为担心他们会分心。台湾最接近“一个中华”的时候,是在2008年至2016年国民党总统马英九执政期间。当时他与中国大陆签署了大量协议,包括一项亲密友好的贸易协议,允许许多台湾商品以低关税在中国大陆销售,而中国大陆却没有对等的准入待遇。这项协议目前仍然有效,而且被视为对今天的台湾经济至关重要。But a second trade deal, which focused on services, was a bridge too far. Spooked that Taiwan was growing too close to China, protesters took over the legislature building in 2014 and helped push the K.M.T. out of power two years later in what was called the Sunflower Movement.但第二项侧重于服务业的贸易协定有些过分了。由于担心台湾与中国大陆走得太近,“太阳花运动”的抗议者在2014年占领了立法院大楼,并推动了两年后国民党被赶下台。Since the D.P.P. won the 2016 election, it has announced changes that underscored the separateness of the Taiwanese identity, shrinking the size of the words “Republic of China” on passports while making the word “Taiwan” much more prominent. The number of people who consider themselves Taiwanese has grown from 17.6 percent in 1992 to 60.8 percent in 2022, according to Ching-hsin Yu, director of the Election Study Center at National Chengchi University in Taipei.民进党在2016年大选中获胜后宣布了一些改变,强调了台湾人身份的独立性,缩小了护照上“中华民国”字样的大小,同时让“台湾”更加突出。台北国立政治大学选举研究中心主任游清鑫说,认为自己是台湾人的人数从1992年的17.6%增长到2022年的60.8%。Newbie trader activists are dismayed that Ms. Lu, who once served five years in prison under the dictatorship for trying to bring democracy to Taiwan, is peddling One Zhonghua.年轻的活动人士对吕秀莲兜售“一个中华”感到失望。她曾因试图将民主带到台湾在独裁统治下入狱五年。“Lu’s proposal is actually very outdated,” said Fei-fan Lin, a former protest leader who became deputy secretary general of the D.P.P. and is now a board member of the New Frontier Foundation, a D.P.P. think tank. China’s crackdown on Hong Kong starting in 2019 removed any doubt that China would dismantle Taiwan’s political system if it got the chance.“吕秀莲的提议实际上已经非常过时了,”曾是抗议活动领导人的民进党副秘书长林飞帆说,他现在是民进党智库新境界文教基金会董事。从2019年开始,中国对香港的镇压打消了一切疑虑,人们认为中国肯定一有机会就会废除台湾的政治制度。“Can Chinese Nationalists (or Their Apologists) Please Shut Up About Zhonghua?” ran the headline of an article by Brian Hioe, a chronicler of progressive activism in Taipei, in New Bloom magazine last August. On Twitter, he has suggested that figures like Ms. Lu, who is now 78 years old, need to be “put out to pasture.”“中国民族主义者(或他们的辩护者)能别再说什么中华吗?”台北进步主义活动的记录者丘琦欣去年8月在《破土》杂志上发表的一篇文章以此为题。他在Twitter上表示,像吕秀莲这样现年78岁的人“该退休了”。Yet for the older generation in Taiwan, the idea of being Chinese still holds deep cultural power. Lung Ying-tai, the former culture minister, told me that since China was unified in the year 221 B.C.E., many in China have harbored the notion that Chinese people should all live in unity under the same ruler.然而,对于台湾的老一辈人来说,身为中国人的观念仍然拥有深厚的文化力量。前文化部长龙应台告诉我,自从中国在公元前221年统一以来,许多中国人都抱有这样的想法,即中国人应该在同一个统治者治下团结共处。Those who tried to break away from the emperor never lasted long. “In thousands of years of recorded history, Taiwan is the first open society of Chinese people,” she told me. “It is a miracle. How we survive will be another miracle.”那些试图脱离皇帝的人从来不能长久。“在有记载的几千年历史中,台湾是中国人的第一个开放社会,”她告诉我。“这是个奇迹。我们如何生存下去,这将是另一个奇迹。”Farah Stockman 2020年加入时报编委会。她曾在时报担任记者四年,负责报道政治、社会运动以及种族议题。她此前供职于《波士顿环球报》,2016年曾获得普利策评论奖。欢迎在Twitter上关注她:@fstockman。翻译:纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。

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