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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Stan NordFX on October 26, 2020, 10:23:18 AM

Title: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 26, 2020, 10:23:18 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 26 - 30, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR / USD. 40% of analysts predicted the growth of this pair to the 1.1900 zone and were right: the local weekly high was recorded at 1.1880, and the five-day period ended at 1.1860.
Strong macro statistics from the United States, as well as a record increase in the number of COVID-19 infected in the Old World, seemed to reverse the pair's trend south on October 21. But then Europe, together with Germany, showed an increase in business activity. This reduced the chances of a build-up of the European quantitative easing (QE) program and further growth in bond prices, which allowed the pair to return to its weekly highs;

- GBP/USD. The hope of a third of analysts that the uptrend was over and the pair shifted to a sideways movement did not come true: it moved north again, turning the upper border of the sideways channel 1.2845-1.3035 from resistance to support.
The UK and the EU continued negotiations, breaking the deadlock in which they stood since the end of last week. But then... they hit it again. As a result, the pair rushed upwards, but having reached a height of 1.3175, it turned in the opposite direction. Contributing to the decline was the Markit PMI in the UK services sector, which fell from 56.1 to 52.3.
The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3045. This means that the pound still gained 130 points in 5 days, and investors still hope that the UK and the EU can come to an agreement on Brexit. Although the main reason, of course, is not the strengthening of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar; 

- USD/JPY. Recall that 30% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, expected the pair to rebound from the horizon at 105.00 and rise to the resistance of 106.00. And they turned out to be right: the pair reached a height of 105.75 by Tuesday October 20.
The remaining 70% of experts, supported by 75% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1, claimed that the USD/JPY pair will be able to approach the September 21 low of 104.00 at least for a while. And they were not mistaken either: - on Wednesday, October 21, the pair recorded a local low at 104.33, followed by a rebound and a finish at 104.70.
According to experts, such a sharp reversal and a fall from a height of 105.75 to 104.33 were a reaction to the general weakening of the dollar and, first of all, its depreciation against the Chinese yuan. The massive triggering of Stop-Loss orders when the support broke out in the 105.00 zone added fuel to the fire;

- cryptocurrencies. Finally! Bitcoin broke the $12,000 level and even hit the $13,200 high. And, as the CEO of analyst firm CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, predicted, this growth has not led to a massive sell-off of the coin. This gives reason to hope that the main cryptocurrency will be able to gain a foothold in this zone.
Bitcoin has grown by almost 80% since the beginning of 2020. According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses that store more than 100 BTC has grown to 16,159, reaching the maximum value in six months. The total number of addresses with a non-zero balance is approaching 32 million.
According to another analytical agency, The Block, in addition to the growth in the number of wallets, the number of transactions and the volume of commissions in the BTC blockchain are also growing. Over the past quarter, transactions worth $225 billion were made on this network. That is, on average, users were conducting transactions for $2.4 billion per day. Four months ago, the average transaction was about $25,000, but it jumped 6 times by October 20, reaching $150,000.
Over the past week, bitcoin's gains have been driven by a very positive news background. Large institutional investors such as Square, MicroStrategy, Stoneridge and Mode Global Holdings have turned to Bitcoin. And the news that the payment giant PayPal is adding to its line of services the ability to buy and sell cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash, came as a "cherry on the cake".
As a result, the benchmark coin rose 13.5% in seven days, pulling the entire crypto market with it, the total capitalization of which increased from $357 to $390 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from the neutral yellow zone to the border of the last quarter of the scale reaching the value of 74. Recall that the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If you follow the textbooks on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic statistics is of basic, fundamental importance. However, there was no coronavirus pandemic when these books were written. And now it's here. And it is capable of destroying any predictions.
On the one hand, the incidence schedule in Europe is bursting upward, Germany and France set a new "anti-record" for the number of infected people on Thursday, October 22. Spain has become the first European country to see the number of people falling ill above 1m, putting pressure on the euro. But COVID-19 has hit supply as well as demand. 
The situation is similar in the US. The number of coronavirus patients is approaching record levels. But at the same time, the country's authorities do not want to introduce new quarantine restrictions in order to support economic activity. Much, including the mood of the markets, depends on the outcome of the US presidential election on November 3.   
According to Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan, Democrat Joe Biden's victory will reduce the likelihood of a new wave of protectionist US policies and allow the pair to reach the 1.2000 mark. If Donald Trump wins again, the dollar, in anticipation of a new round of trade war, is likely to go into growth, and the EUR/USD pair will fall to the lows of September in the 1.1600 zone.
In the meantime, despite the fact that Biden's ratings are higher, investors are in no hurry to get rid of the dollar, because they remember how, unexpectedly for many, Donald Trump became the resident of the White House in 2016. And this can happen again.
The intrigue with the election results will continue after November 3, because they may be challenged, especially those of voting by mail, and the electoral college will meet only on December 14.
Now about the forecast for the coming week. The listed uncertainties prevent analysts from unambiguously pointing in one direction or another. However, 75% of them do not exclude a slight rise in the EUR/USD pair at least to the level of 1.1900. Also, 100% of indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green.
The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Its fall is also supported by 25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1800, 1.1760 and 1.1700. The ultimate goal, as already stated, is 1.1600.
As for the events of the coming week, special attention should be paid to the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 29, and especially to the final press conference of its lmanagement, which will be held in the afternoon of the same day. The data on US GDP, which will be released on October 29, and the Eurozone GDP, which will be released a day later, on Friday, October 30, can also influence the formation of local trends;

- GBP/USD. The overwhelming majority (90%) of experts, supported by graphical analysis and trend indicators on D1, believe that the pair changed the echelon 1.2845-1.3035 to a higher one - 1.3000-1.3175. However, this forecast is very short-term, and its further behavior will be determined by the result of the presidential election in the United States, the epidemiological situation on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean and the course of negotiations between the EU and the UK on the terms of Brexit. If the parties show that there will be no withdrawal from the Agreement, this will have a beneficial effect on the pound rate. The situation on this issue should be clarified by mid-November. In the meantime, COVID-19 will continue to play the main role, having the most serious impact on the British economy and especially on finances.
It should be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the picture changes radically, and here already the majority of experts (60%) and  graphical analysis on D1 expect the pair to fall rather than rise: first to the level of 1.2860, and then by another 100 points below;
(https://i.imgur.com/zS7KN5X.jpg)

- USD/JPY. We are waiting for the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and its management's comment on monetary policy next week, on October 29. But, as usual, we do not expect any surprises from them, and the rate is highly likely to remain at the same negative level, minus 0.1%.
More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, given the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts prefer the Japanese currency as more stable. This scenario is supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1.
Note that, starting in 2016, the USD/JPY pair has fallen below 105.00 for the seventh time. However, it usually lingers there only for a very short time, after which it returns above this mark. The question is still open as to what will happen this time. However, in the medium term, 60% of experts do not exclude that the pair may break through the support of 104.00 and even go down to the zone 102.00-103.00.
As for the graphical analysis, on D1 it draws a sideways movement in the 104.00-105.55 channel within the next three weeks;

- cryptocurrencies. On Friday evening, October 23, the BTC/USD pair is in the $12.860 zone - a new local support/resistance level. If bitcoin holds above $12,800, it promises to be the highest weekly rise in 2.5 years and offers hope for growth to historic highs around $20,000. The immediate challenge is testing the July 2019 high of $13,760.
Bitcoin's rise right now is driven by the pandemic, the monetary printing press that trillions of fiats are coming out of, and the growing popularity of cryptocurrency with large institutional investors. Thus, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital investment firm Anthony Pompliano increased accumulations in the main cryptocurrency from 50% to 80%.
The number of contracts to buy BTC accumulated in the hands of institutional investors has reached an all-time high, according to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). However, according to the Commitment of traders (COT) reports, hedge funds hold no fewer contracts to sell bitcoin. A number of experts believe that hedge funds do this in order to provide sufficient liquidity for institutional investors.
Popular TV host and long-time bitcoin supporter Max Kaiser agrees with this version. He believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are slowing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity by around $400,000.”
Turning to the forecast for the coming months, we will cite the opinion of Anton Kravchenko, CEO of the investment company Xena Financial Systems, according to which the rate of the BTC/USD pair may reach $14,000 by the end of the year. 65% of experts agree with this forecast. The fact that the pair could fall to $9,000 was mentioned by 25% of analysts a week ago, now their number has fallen to 15%. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 28, 2020, 04:17:58 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/bCXNCSz.jpg)

- The number of cryptocurrency whales has started to increase amid the recent rally in bitcoin. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. According to the company's specialists, the number of wallets containing more than 1000 coins reached 2.2 thousand on October 25. There were less than 2 thousand of them at the beginning of the year, and their number began to decline at a rapid pace before the May halving.
Based on the current rate, each of the cryptocurrency “whales” is the owner of a fortune of at least 13 million dollars. It is noteworthy that many of them invested in bitcoin during periods when it was very cheap, which speaks of the record profitability of the main coin for its "early" owners.

- One of the leading bitcoin ATM operators LibertyX has added the option to sell bitcoin for cash to 5000 devices located in the United States. This function avoids delays associated with bank transfers. Anyone who wants to sell bitcoins just needs to use an application or a website to enter the number of coins they want to sell and choose a convenient ATM that will give them cash in dollars after specifying the order number. The commission for such an operation is quite large: 8%.

- Bitcoin outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a significantly better chance of continued growth, according to a new report by the US investment bank JPMorgan. At the same time, the bank's analysts draw attention to the low capitalization of bitcoin, which, in their opinion, is explained by the fact that mainly millennials choose the cryptocurrency. The older generation prefers to keep assets in tangible form, in particular, in gold. Despite this, however, bitcoin has significant potential for long-term growth as millennials will become "an increasingly important component of the investment space" over time.
JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to raise its current value of around $13,000 10 times to equal the precious metal in this respect.

- Hackers broke into the database of the Vastaamo Psychotherapy Centre in Finland. After gaining access to information on thousands of patients at the centre, they demanded a ransom in the amount of 450 thousand euros in bitcoins. The cybercriminals threatened to publish the stolen data and have already begun to implement the threat by uploading the personal data of at least 300 people to the web. The information included the patient's name, telephone number, email address, residential address, diagnosis, and the content of the therapy sessions.
The hackers also offered individual patients to delete their data for a ransom of up to 540 euros in bitcoins.

- After the payment giant PayPal announced the start of support for bitcoin and a number of other cryptocurrencies, Visa, Mastercard and American Express will follow its example. This opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by the CEO of the Galaxy Investment cryptocurrency fund Mike Novogratz.
However, speaking of bitcoin, Novogratz sees in it only a way to preserve capital and doubts that the first cryptocurrency will become widespread as a means of payment. “I don't think this will happen within the next five years. Bitcoin is used as a means of accumulation. Therefore, as digital gold, it will simply continue to rise in value, and more and more people will include it in their portfolios,” explained Novogratz.
As a reminder, PayPal announced the launch of the function of buying, selling and storing bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin on Wednesday, October 21. The company expects that the new feature will stimulate the global use of cryptocurrencies and prepare the web for digital currencies of central banks.

- According to analysts at Glassnode, the rate of bitcoin has not increased much so far. They conclude from this that the asset will have every chance to take on new barriers in the future. Investors are still only trying to figure out the new policy of bitcoin, since it is more focused on the internal environment now. Stock markets and other external factors have practically ceased to influence it.

- American programmer, US presidential candidate, "crypto baron" John McAfee, arrested in Spain at the request of the US and accused of tax evasion, gave an interview to Cointelegraph right from his prison cell.
The eccentric millionaire shared his thoughts on the latest developments in the cryptocurrency industry, praised the news of the addition of cryptocurrencies to PayPal's arsenal, and could not resist advertising his own cryptocurrency. “Very soon, we will be faced with a new direction in using cryptocurrencies to execute transactions, rather than as a quick get-rich scheme. That's why I developed the privacy-focused stablecoin Ghost,” McAfee said.

- The founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange, the Winklevoss brothers, confirmed their previous prediction, saying that bitcoin will be worth $500,000 sooner or later.
'The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started, "- said Cameron Winklevoss.
Tyler Winklevoss added that he and his brother started buying cryptocurrency back in 2012 and expressed confidence that bitcoin outperforms gold, oil and the US dollar as a store of value and is the only long-term inflation hedge.

- The CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who was prophesying the imminent decline of cryptocurrency in the past, claims that he is ready to hold bitcoin for 100 years and does not plan to sell it. Led by Saylor, the company has invested $425 million in bitcoin over the past months. “And this is not speculation or hedge. This is a targeted corporate strategy for the adoption of the bitcoin standard,” Saylor explained. According to him, having considered the available options for preserving capital amid the economic uncertainty in the world, MicroStrategy has come to the conclusion that bitcoin is the best long-term store of value. Taxes and commissions make investments in other assets meaningless, and if not, then they are flawed, because they are controlled by a company management or the state. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is evolving and only gets harder and stronger over time.
Sailor believes that gold cannot be compared to bitcoin. In his opinion, people who hold $100 million in fiat will lose 99% of the value of their assets in 100 years, and investments in gold will, at best, bring 85% of the loss.

- On Wednesday October 28, Donald Trump's campaign website was hacked. As a result, the content of the "About Us" page was changed to accommodate the addresses of the Monero cryptocurrency and the accompanying text. Cybercriminals claim in it to have hacked many devices and gained full access to information about Trump and his relatives. They also claim that they had information at their disposal, allegedly indicating the involvement of the Trump administration in the emergence of the coronavirus, as well as his personal involvement in criminal activity and cooperation with foreigners to manipulate the upcoming election.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 31, 2020, 01:17:00 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 02 - 06, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. It seems that the market has decided not to pay much attention to the US presidential election. Investors are much more concerned about what is happening with the second wave of the pandemic COVID-19 in the Old and New Worlds, and what steps will be taken by regulators on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
In the United States - a record increase in the number of infected, which could lead to a collapse of stock markets, akin to March. However, in an effort to support the economy, the current White House administration is not yet going to introduce a lockdown, hoping for an early vaccination of the population. This decision was also influenced by the strong statistics of US GDP growth in the III quarter: plus 33.1% instead of minus 31.4% three months earlier.
As for Europe, many countries, including Germany and France, have already begun to implement stricter quarantine measures. Moreover, although at the last meeting on Thursday, October 29, the ECB did not lower the already low interest rate, the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, made it very clear that very serious steps could be expected from the regulator in a month and a half, aimed at easing the monetary politics and stimulating the economy of the Old World.
Apparently, the European regulator decided to spend this time to determine the necessary amount of support for the economy, see how the situation with the coronavirus will develop and analyze the results of the US presidential election.
The data released on Friday, October 30, showed the growth of GDP in the Eurozone in the III quarter from minus 11.8% to plus 12.7%. But this, firstly, is significantly lower than in the United States, and secondly, according to Lagarde, the prospects with the onset of COVID-19 are so gloomy that the ECB does not rule out a recession in the Eurozone in the IV quarter. As a result, the ECB will have to expand its QE program by another €500 billion in December, and, and maybe lower the interest rate on the euro.
In general, the prospects for easing monetary policy in Europe seemed to investors much more real and large-scale than in the United States for now, which entailed a strengthening of the dollar by 220 points this week, a fall in EUR/USD to the level of 1.1640 and the pair's finish at 1.1645;

- GBP/USD. Most experts (60%), together with graphical analysis on D1, had expected the pair to fall to 1.2860 within two to three weeks. However, it happened much faster: it found a local bottom at 1.2880 as early as on Thursday, October 29. And the reason for the fall of the pound is not so much in the increased risks of a second wave of coronavirus in the UK, but in Brexit, which remains the main topic in this case. And the situation in this case is not in favour of the British currency.
Market hopes that the deal with Europe will be reached by the X hour in December this year are dimming like morning fog over London. And as former Bank of England governor Mark Carney used to say, a no-deal Brexit would come as a shock to the country's economy. And in anticipation of this shock, the pair set the last chord at 1.2950 after a week's hike to the south and a correction to the upper border of the descending channel;

- USD/JPY. As we expected, the meeting of the Bank of Japan on October 29 went without the slightest surprises. In a country whose currency is a safe haven and protection from financial storms, everything must remain calm and quiet.
More interesting is the tug of war between the dollar and the yen as safe haven currencies. And here, taking into account the pre-election and pandemic chaos in the US, 75% of experts, supported by 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1, preferred the Japanese currency as more stable. And they turned out to be right. As expected, having bounced off one significant level - 105.00, the pair made an attempt, the third one since July 31, to break through another significant level - support at 104.00. And again, it was unsuccessful. As a result, after the rebound, it returned to where it started from at the beginning of the five-day period, and completed the trading session at 104.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The market is filled with optimism after payment giant PayPal announced the launch of features to buy, sell and store Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin.  Visa, Mastercard and American Express should follow his example in the next few months, such opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by CEO of cryptocurrency fund Galaxy Investment Mike Novogratz.
Against the backdrop of the bitcoin rally in the second half of October, the number of cryptocurrency "whales" began to increase. This is evidenced by the CoinMetrics data service. According to experts, the number of wallets containing more than 1000 coins has reached 2.2 thousand. Based on the current rate, it turns out that each of their owners now has a fortune of at least 13 million dollars!
On this positive wave, the bulls tried to break to a height of $14,000 on Wednesday October 28, however they were stopped at $13,830. The next attempt followed on Thursday night, but was even less successful ¬: the maximum was fixed at $13,615. The bulls gave up after the third unsuccessful attempt, the BTC/USD pair rolled back down, and it is consolidating in the $13,300 zone by the evening of Friday October 30.
Following the growth of quotations on October 28, the total capitalization of the crypto market began to grow, rising from $390 billion to $410 billion. However, a rollback in the value of the main coin by the end of the week caused the closure of short-term positions and its sale, as a result of which the market returned to its starting point in the area of $388 billion.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also returned to its original position: to around 74, at the very border of the last quarter of the scale. Recall that level 74 corresponds to the average indicator of greed, when opening short positions is still dangerous. But the range from 75 to 100 is designated by the developers of the index as “Extreme Greed”, which corresponds to the pair BTC/USD being strongly overbought and foreshadows its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde made it clear that her bank is ready to ease its monetary policy from next month. On the other hand, Donald Trump also speaks of possible support for the US economy. But the latter has elections on Tuesday, November 03, and all his rhetoric, as well as the rhetoric of his rival Joe Biden, can still be attributed to pre-election communications. it is hard to predict now what will happen in the US in reality, unlike in the Old World.
It is just as difficult to predict what will happen with the pandemic. It was said at the beginning of the review that the current White House administration is very much counting on vaccinations and a medical solution to the problem. However, the situation may deteriorate sharply until this happens and the stock indices will go down, as it happened last spring.
Then, against the backdrop of falling stock markets, the Fed began to flood the fire with cheap money, cut the interest rate, which led to the weakening of the American currency and the growth of the EUR/USD pair by more than 1300 points. Now, the EU is ahead of the United States in its measures of quantitative easing and the introduction of quarantine restrictions, which launched a sale in the euro last week and allowed the dollar to grow. However, it is clear that the weekly increase in USD by 220 points and the fall of 1300 points since March are two incomparable things.
The main US elections are scheduled for next week. And, in case of Joe Biden's victory, and thanks to rising stocks of American companies and encouraging vaults from the front of the fight against COVID-19, the euro can very quickly regain its lost ground. We should also pay attention to the meeting of the US Fed on Friday, November 06. And even not so much to its decision on the interest rate, which will hughly likely remain unchanged, as to the Fed's comment on monetary policy, which, it is possible, will already take into account the results of the presidential election.
Of course, as usual, data on the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) will be released on the first Friday of the month. But, against the background of the above-mentioned events, it is unlikely they will have any serious impact on quotes.
In the meantime, giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of experts (65%) are looking south. The nearest support is the September 25 low 1.1610, the next target is zone 1.1500. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1. But the remaining 25% of oscillators are already giving strong signals about the pair being oversold and the upcoming correction. The most likely rebound zone is 1.1600, the targets are 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1830 and 1.1880;
 
- GBP/USD. A number of experts do not exclude that the Bank of England may announce the next measures aimed at supporting the country's economy at the nearest meeting on Thursday, November 05. The list of possible steps includes an increase in bond purchases to ?850 billion, and a decrease in the interest rate, which is 0.1% today. The last step is unlikely, though.
The British currency is likely to remain under pressure until the meeting of the Bank of England. But we should not forget about the unresolved issue on the terms of Brexit, which will also push the GBP/USD pair down. That is why, giving the forecast for November, the majority of analysts (60%) sided with bears, heralding the pair a further decline first to support 1.2860 and then 100 points lower. The final goal is the September 23 low at 1.2675. Exactly the same picture is drawn by graphical analysis on D1. 70% of technical indicators on both timeframes, H4 and D1, are also colored red. 
A diametrically opposite position is now taken by 40% of experts. And here it should be noted that when switching to forecasting until the end of the year, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 70%. Apparently, the market still hopes that at the most critical moment the Brexit deal with the EU will be agreed and signed. The nearest resistance is zone 1.3000. It is followed by levels 1.3080, 1.3175 and 1.3265;
(https://i.imgur.com/QKYbvOA.jpg)

- USD/JPY. Now this pair is sandwiched between two very strong levels - 104.00 and 105.00, and its further movement depends on the risk sentiment of investors. And those, in turn, depend on what will happen in the United States in the coming week.
65% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will make another attempt to break through 104.00 support. But only 30 per cent are confident that it will be able to reach the 103.00 zone.
The same graphical analysis for the first half of November draws the lateral movement in the corridor 104.00-105.00. In case of breaking through its upper boundary, the pair has a chance to gain a foothold in the next echelon, 105.00-105.80, and possibly reach the height of 106.10. However, the chances of doing so are currently estimated at only 15%;

- cryptocurrencies. It has been repeatedly discussed how the change in ownership of the White House could affect the cryptocurrency market. The election of the President of the United States is pretty soon. And here it is impossible not to mention the fact¬ that on Wednesday, October 28, Donald Trump's campaign website was attacked by hackers - followers of the Monero cryptocurrency. As a result, an advertisement for this altcoin and a statement by attackers that the Trump administration was allegedly involved in the emergence of the coronavirus, and that Trump himself was involved in criminal activity and cooperation with foreigners to manipulate the upcoming elections, appeared in the About Us section of the website.
In addition to the election results, other factors contribute to the uncertainty in the prospects for bitcoin. So, according to analysts at Glassnode, stock markets and other external factors have practically ceased to affect the BTC rate, which is now more focused on the internal environment, and investors are still trying to figure out its new policy. At the same time, Glassnode believes that the asset has every chance to take new barriers in the future.
Having prophesied the imminent decline of cryptocurrency in the past, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor now claims to be ready to hold bitcoin for at least 100 years. The company led by Saylor has invested $425 million in bitcoin over the past months. According to him, having considered the available options for preserving capital amid the economic uncertainty in the world, MicroStrategy has concluded that bitcoin is the best long-term store of value. Saylor is sure that even gold does not compare with this cryptocurrency. In his opinion, people who hold $100 million in fiat will lose 99% of the value of their assets in 100 years, and investments in gold will, at best, bring 85% of the loss.
Specialists from the American investment bank JPMorgan have also preferred bitcoin. In their view, BTC outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a substantially better chance of continued growth. According to their new report, the capitalization of the crypto market is not large enough yet as digital currencies are chosen mainly by millennials. The older generation prefers more tangible assets, particularly gold. Despite this, however, bitcoin has significant potential for long-term growth as millennials will become "an increasingly important component of the investment space" over time.
JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to raise its current value of around $13,000 10 times to equal the precious metal in this respect.
The previous positive outlook was confirmed by the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini brothers, saying that the BTC/USD pair will reach $500,000 sooner or later. "The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started," said Cameron Winklevoss.
If we turn to the forecast for the near future, the majority of analysts (60%) believes that the BTC/USD pair will continue to attack the resistance of $14,000. But it is only 25% of analysts that say that this assault will end in luck and the pair will be able to gain a foothold in the $15,000 zone by the end of the year. The probability of reaching a height of $16,000 is estimated today at only 10%. But the possibility of quotes returning to $12,000 increases to 40%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 04, 2020, 03:49:00 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/tsUa07Y.jpg)

- According to the founder of the investment fund Off The Chain Capital Brian Estes, the attitude towards cryptocurrencies will change dramatically over the next ten years. This is especially true of the American market, which is still showing loyalty to digital assets. Roughly 90 percent of U.S. households will use bitcoin by 2030. Asia will be ahead in this industry, but China and other countries will focus on sovereign coins.

- Well-known analyst Willie Wu believes that bitcoin has entered the "safe haven" stage. He already predicted a similar development of events In early autumn. According to the cryptocurrency expert, the main coin is now showing relative stability, which is why it is not worth waiting for a repeat of the 2017 rally. In addition, even if Bitcoin does go into aggressive growth, it will be in for constant corrections.
“Correlation of the main cryptocurrency by other market industries is gradually decreasing. This ensures the stability of the asset but prevents it from moving to growth. It is because of stability that there is a certain stagnation now,” said Wu. Judging by the trend of recent days, the main coin may be between $13,000 and $14,000 for a long time to come.
 
- An unknown user withdrew 69,370 BTC (approximately $960 million) from a wallet that hackers have been trying to hack for several years. At the time of the transfer, this address was the world fourth largest holder of bitcoin. And, perhaps, the owner of the wallet simply transferred the coins to a new, more secure address. As noted by the Telegram channel Goldfoundinshit, the forums claimed that the wallet is associated with the founder of the anonymous trading platform Silk Road Ross Ulbricht, who is serving a life sentence in an American prison.
 
- Known as the "king of bonds," Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, recommended the first cryptocurrency and gold as insurance against the dollar's depreciation. Interestingly, Gundlach was saying until recently that he was not ready to participate in the hype around bitcoin. In an interview with Business Insider, he had called the first cryptocurrency a "lie", doubting it was impossible to hack it. “I don't believe in bitcoin. I think it's well tracked. I don’t think it is anonymous,” he had said then. And now the businessman, who manages $141bn in assets, has offered his listeners to hedge the risks of inflation by adding gold and bitcoin to the investment portfolio.

- Residents of Cuba have become much more interested in bitcoin Over the past month. According to Google Trends, in terms of the number of searches related to the first cryptocurrency, the country came in second place, and is now second only to Nigeria. Bitcoin's rise in popularity in the island nation is due to tougher American sanctions, as well as restrictions on the use of PayPal and Stripe payment platforms.
South Africa, Cameroon and Ghana are also among the top five countries with a high interest in bitcoin. Residents of Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Japan turn to the search engine with such a request less often than others.

- Bitcoin showed a negative correlation with the Dow Jones index last week. While stock markets were declining all over the world, the rate of bitcoin rose by 5% and even exceeded the 2019 high. That's not yet the limit, according to some analysts. A new impetus for the growth of BTC may be given by the US presidential election. “Trump's victory should be well received by participants in the financial markets,” experts say, “and the bitcoin rate will grow along with the rates of other assets. If Biden wins, we will see the stock market fall. However, bitcoin is likely to show growth amid expectations of a depreciation of the dollar. "

- A cryptocurrency user in Canada decided to give kids Halloween gift cards, each with $100 in bitcoin, which is roughly 0.007 BTC. Interestingly, some candy hunters, dressed as ghosts, goblins, and witches, were disappointed to receive an inedible piece of cardboard. But there were also those who were delighted to become the owner of a real cryptocurrency. The information that bitcoins were being distributed in this house quickly spread throughout the area, and whole groups of children began to move there on purpose.
The reaction from the crypto community was positive, with many believing that it was a good way to introduce children to the crypto world. "This is a historic moment," said analyst Billy Wu. "When these children come to power, there will be only 0.002 BTC left for each person."

- According to Rai News, a 41-year-old employee of the airport in the Italian city of Lamezia Terme infected the computers of the airport network with a miner virus. He used their computing power to mine ethereum. In addition, the "crypto-enthusiast" has placed several of his own mining farms in the office premises, having powered them from the airport power grid. CCTV cameras managed to capture this, the records of which ended up in the hands of the city prosecutor's office.

- Several US banks have begun negotiations with major crypto custodians such as Anchorage and Coinbase on potential cooperation. This happened after the regulator officially allowed banks to provide such services. This was stated by the head of the United States Currency Exchange Office (OCC) Brian Brooks. He believes that financial conglomerates around the world will not create their own solutions for storing cryptocurrencies from scratch, but rather will buy market leaders or enter into cooperation with them to meet the needs of their customers.

- Hackers have stolen more than $13.6 billion in cryptocurrency since 2012, committing more than 330 hacks. This is stated in the study of the analytical service Atlas VPN.
Most often, hackers attacked decentralized applications running on the basis of the EOS blockchain platform. There were 117 such cases. Next on the list was the ethereum blockchain platform. The services developed on top of it were attacked 33 times.
As for money, most of all hackers stole it from crypto exchanges and crypto wallets. According to Atlas VPN, there were 87 successful hacks of trading platforms, as a result of which the attackers managed to withdraw $4.8 billion. Wallets suffered even more damage, where the total damage amounted to almost $7.2 billion.


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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 08, 2020, 12:03:45 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 09 - 13, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As we expected in the previous forecast, thanks to Joe Biden's victory in the U.S. presidential election, the growth of U.S. stocks and encouraging reports from the front against COVID-19, the euro and other competitors of the dollar can very quickly recover the positions previously lost.
As for the coronavirus, no positive news has yet been received from this front. Moreover, voting in the elections led to a new anti-record in the United States: 100,000 new infection cases in just one day.
Joe Biden, too, is finally yet to win. But the growing likelihood of a change in the owner of the White House has already led to an overflow of investor funds from fiat to the stock market. Investors loved the idea of a Democratic president and the division of Congress into two camps. In this case, there is less risk of tax increases Most likely, due to the relaxation of regulation, life will become easier for technology companies. As a result of such expectations, the dollar went down, while the S& P500, Dow Jones, as well as the euro and other major currencies, went up. So, the Chinese yuan managed to win back more than half of the losses suffered as a result of trade wars unleashed by Donald Trump. The common European currency also showed impressive growth. Starting on November 02 from 1.1645, the EUR/USD pair reached the level of 1.1890 by the evening of Friday 06 November, showing an increase of 245 points. The last chord was placed at 1.1875;

- GBP/USD. The British currency grew not only due to the fall in the dollar, but also thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, which decided to further support the country's economy on Thursday, November 05 by increasing the bond purchase program by ?150 billion and bringing it to ?895 billion. The market had expected increases to just ?845 billion pounds and this additional QE extension pushed the pound up to the October 21 high of 1.3175. The pair ended the week session at 1.3150, showing an increase of 200 points;

- USD/JPY. Recall the forecast that was given last week. We cite:
"Now this pair is sandwiched between two very strong levels - 104.00 and 105.00, and its further movement depends on the risk sentiment of investors. And those, in turn, depend on what will happen in the United States in the coming week. 65% of experts, supported by 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will make another attempt to break through the support of 104.00. But only 30 per cent are confident that it will be able to reach the 103.00 zone".
And now judge for yourself how accurate it was. The pair did go to break the support 104.00, broke it, but managed to go down only to the horizon 103.17. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 103.30;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with statistics. According to Google Trends, according to the number of searches related to the first cryptocurrency, Nigeria, Cuba, South Africa, Cameroon are in the TOP-5 countries with the highest interest in bitcoin, and Ghana closes the top five. Residents of Taiwan, Kazakhstan and Japan turn to the search engine with such a request less often than others.
And, before moving on to the main event of the crypto week, some more statistics, from the world of crime. It has finally become known how many digital assets have been stolen by cybercriminals. According to a study by the analytical service Atlas VPN, since 2012, hackers have stolen more than $13.6 billion in cryptocurrency, making more than 330 hacks. Most often, thefts were carried out from crypto exchanges and crypto wallets. According to Atlas VPN, there were 87 successful hacks of trading platforms, as a result of which the attackers managed to withdraw $4.8 billion. Wallets suffered even more damage, where the total damage amounted to almost $7.2 billion.
And now the main promised news: Bitcoin soared to a height of $15.880 on the night of November 05-6, adding 17.2% over the week. It should be noted that since the last days of October, the main cryptocurrency again correlates with both stock indices Dow Jones, Nasdaq and Standard & Poor's 500 and with gold. Not surprisingly, during the pandemic, the US Federal Reserve printed a huge amount of new money, and many large investors, fearing inflation, included bitcoin in their portfolios as a protective asset. Therefore, a sharp jump in BTC / USD quotes in the second half of the outgoing week was associated with the expectations of Joe Biden's victory in the US presidential election, which caused a sharp weakening of the dollar and a capital flow into risky protective assets.
The total capitalization of the crypto market grew in 7 days by 9%, having risen from $410 billion to $447 billion.The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was at around 90 by the evening of Friday, November 06, in the zone that the developers of the index designated like “Extreme Greed”. This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction. Although, it should be noted, a certain correction has already taken place, and the pair rolled back to the $15.150 zone from the highs of the week and completed the seven-day period at $15.510.
Bitcoin's growth has pulled many top altcoins with it. So, Ethereum (ETH/USD) has grown 15% heavier over the week. Additional support for this coin was provided by the news about the imminent launch of the ETH 2.0 branch. However, for this to happen, the developers must raise funds in the amount of 524,288 ETH (about $230 million). Investments should be frozen for a period of one and a half to two years; the expected return is 8-15% per annum. If the necessary funds are raised in November, the launch of the ETH 2.0 genesis block will take place on December 1 at 12:00 UTC.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Stock markets are growing, investors continue to pour money there, hoping that the wave raised by the hopes for the arrival of a new US President will grow higher and stronger. At the same time, the market forgets that the situation with the coronavirus is only getting worse, that Trump has not gone anywhere yet, and that no one has yet canceled the fiscal burden, and all this remains only at the level of election promises. Trump, if he loses, may well protest the election results. We should also not forget about the weakness of the common European currency.
In general, the flight of investors from the dollar towards stocks, bonds, gold, bitcoin and the euro, while understandable, may be premature. Everything can turn in the opposite direction overnight.
In such a situation, it is quite natural that the opinions of experts are equally divided: one third vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair, one third - for its fall, and one third take a neutral position. As for technical analysis, 100% of the trend indicators on H4 and D1 are still green, but among the oscillators, 25% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates a possible downward trend reversal or a serious correction. The trend reversal is also indicated by graphical analysis on D1.
The pair is in a strong mid-term support/resistance zone 1.1880-1.1900 now. The nearest support levels are 1.1760, 1.1700 and 1.1610. Resistance levels are 1.1965 and the September 01, 2020 high of 1.2010. It should be borne in mind here that this maximum is the highest point at which the pair has been located since May 2018. And if EUR/USD continues its northward movement, its main target is likely to be the zone 1.2200-1.2400;

- GBP/USD. There is a movie, “The King's Speech”, dedicated to George VI, father of Britain's current Queen Elizabeth II. The upcoming week can be called "The Head of the Bank of England' Speech." Moreover, he speaks a lot: Andrew Bailey's speeches are scheduled for November 09, 12 and 13. In addition, the data on the UK labor market will become known on Tuesday, November 10, and the GDP of this country for the III quarter and the consumer price index - on Thursday, November 12. According to forecasts, everything is quite contradictory. On the one hand, GDP can grow from -19.8% to +15.8%. But on the other hand, the growth of applications for unemployment benefits is expected from 28.0K to 78.8K. Now it is worth adding to this the ambiguity with the dollar exchange rate, which now depends on the outcome of the presidential election in the United States, as well as the still unresolved terms of the deal with the EU on Brexit.
As a result, we have rather vague prospects for the GBP/USD pair, although most experts (70%) tend to continue its uptrend - first to 1.3265, and then perhaps to the high of 01 Sept, 1.3480. The nearest resistance is 1.3175. 
As for technical analysis, here the situation is completely identical to the readings for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point to the north, while the graphical analysis looks to the south as well as 25% of the oscillators which are signaling the pair is overbought. Supports are 1.3085, 1.3000, 1.2855. The next target of the bears is 1.2755, but it is unlikely to be reached in the coming week;

- USD/JPY. So, as already mentioned, amid the protracted vote count in the US elections, the dollar dropped to a two-month low against the basket of major currencies last week, and most investors expect it to weaken further. Currency markets are Currency carry trade that Democrat Joe Biden will be the next president, but Republicans will retain control of the Senate. In this situation, 70% of analysts believe that the Japanese currency will continue to strengthen against the dollar, as a result of which the pair will still break through support in the 103.00 zone and approach the level of 102.00. (Taking into account the backlash, slippage up to 101.75 is possible). It should be noted that it has not fallen so low since the beginning of the panic of March 2020, caused by the onset of the coronavirus pandemic.
In the current situation, one should probably not be surprised that the readings of the indicators for the USD/JPY pair coincide completely with the readings of their "colleagues" for the previous two pairs, with the only difference that the weakening of the dollar corresponds to the movement of this pair down, and not up, as in the case of the euro and the pound.   
The remaining 30% of experts side with the bulls and vote for the return of USD first to the resistance of 104.00, and then fixing in the zone 104.00-105.00;

- cryptocurrencies. The COVID-19 pandemic has become a winning card for bitcoin. The more money Central Banks print to support the economies of their countries, the more investors begin to acquire Bitcoin as a protective asset. And not only private but also large institutional investors.   
Cryptocurrency is no longer a pariah for financial giants such as JPMorgan and PayPal. The "king of bonds", the head of the management company DoubleLine Capital ($141 billion) Jeffrey Gundlach, who had recently called the first cryptocurrency "a lie", now recommends it as insurance against dollar depreciation.
According to Brian Brooks, head of the US Currency Exchange Office (OCC), some US banks are already actively negotiating with major cryptocurrency custodians such as Anchorage and Coinbase on potential cooperation. Brooks believes that financial conglomerates around the world will not create their own solutions for storing cryptocurrencies from scratch, but rather will buy market leaders or enter into cooperation with them to meet the needs of their customers. According to Off The Chain Capital investment fund founder Brian Estes, roughly 90% of households in the U.S. will use BTC coins by 2030.
As for the near future, according to a number of experts, after overcoming the critical $12,000 mark, there are no serious obstacles for bitcoin on the way to $20,000. At the moment, 60% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will set off for a new assault on the $16,000 height in the near future.   
Although, there are other opinions. For example, well-known analyst Willie Wu believes that bitcoin has entered the "safe haven" stage. “Correlation of the main cryptocurrency by other market industries is gradually decreasing. This ensures the stability of the asset, which is why it is not worth waiting for a repeat of the 2017 rally. And even if bitcoin goes to aggressive growth, Willy Wu believes, it will face constant corrections and return to the $14,000-15,000 zone. This point of view is now shared by 40% of analysts, while in the medium term their number increases to 60%. However, it is absolutely clear that the determining factor for the BTC/USD quotes in the foreseeable future will be the success of Donald Trump or Joe Biden in the fight for the presidency of the United States.
(https://i.imgur.com/bD1r6kj.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Lyons on November 09, 2020, 03:57:44 AM
good
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 11, 2020, 05:11:57 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/a0K3ZCt.jpg)

- Binance cryptocurrency exchange has started blocking the accounts of users from the United States. There are no official explanations for these actions so far. The emails that users received after being blocked say they need to withdraw all the funds from their accounts within 90 days.
According to The Block, previously blocking was carried out only if the user indicated that he or she was a US citizen during the registration process. Now the exchange finds them by IP addresses. For some clients, the administration offers to switch to the Binance US platform or its analogues, since they are not subject to the prohibitions of American law.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. Currently, there are about 11 thousand such devices in the world. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day.
According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat. The devices are installed in large shopping centers mainly in countries where the circulation of digital assets is allowed at the state level. The CoinATMRadar portal has a map of the location of cryptomats around the world. Judging by it, most of the devices are located in the United States and Canada. You can not only get fiat in them, but also buy the cryptocurrencies themselves, at the exchange value. It is not uncommon for the user to choose a platform with an up-to-date rate.

- Many representatives of the cryptosphere are happy with the fact that Joe Biden has most likely won the US presidential election. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general.
According to Mike Novogratz, CEO of crypto trading bank Galaxy Digital, the new administration will accelerate the launch of the incentive program. In this situation, a further increase in investor interest in bitcoin is inevitable, as the dollar will become less attractive amid inflation.

- Popular blogger PlanB remains true to his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $100 - $288 thousand by December 2021, which is consistent with the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model on which his expectations are based.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults.
According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.

- Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, said in an interview with CNBC that he had invested part of the capital under his management in the first cryptocurrency. He admitted that bitcoin may be a better instrument for preserving value than gold.
Druckenmiller has noted the growing stabilization of the first cryptocurrency since its launch 13 years ago. “I'm partly a dinosaur, but I've become better aware that bitcoin can become an asset class that will be interesting from the standpoint of a capital preservation tool,” the investor has explained.
In the same interview, the billionaire predicted a fall in the US dollar over the next three to four years.
 
- The Taiwanese laptop manufacturer Compal Electronics has fallen victim to the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. For decrypting the files, the hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing), according to Bleeping Computer.
DoppelPaymer is distributed on Windows networks and is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights. According to experts from the information security company Group-IB, this virus entered the top three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
The expert added that the gold will rise in price next year on the same factors as BTC. Its value could rise to $2k an ounce.

- As the publication Unfolded notes, the dependence of Ethereum on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the Ethereum network (ETH 2.0). It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC.
Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If Ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".

- The market has marked consolidation at two addresses of bitcoins, which have not been in motion for 10 years. According to the data from blockchain.com, the aggregation of coins worth more than $15 million originated from 20 different addresses. Each of them transferred 50 BTC. Until the first halving in 2012, this was the amount miners received as a reward for a successfully mined block.
The situation with early bitcoins of the time of Satoshi Nakamoto always attracts increased attention of the crypto community. Everyone is primarily interested in whether they are really part of the legacy of Satoshi himself. So, more recently, the crypto community enthusiastically discussed the movement of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election. The most fantastic versions were put forward, but later it turned out that this US Department of Justice confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the purse associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 15, 2020, 07:42:41 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 16 - 20, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Last week, we started talking about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. Yes, Joe Biden has won the presidential election. It seems to have won. Since Donald Trump's team has already collected a lot of facts about the violations and falsifications and is going to challenge the election results in court. For the time being, a number of state bodies, including even the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), refused to support the change of president. The distribution of seats in the US Senate remains questionable, and the priorities in the country's policy, including fiscal measures and programs to support the economy, depend on this.
It is completely unclear in which direction and at what speed the situation with the coronavirus pandemic will develop as well. Will there be a new lockdown and of what scale? The daily number of new cases of COVID-19 infection has exceeded 100 thousand in the United States for almost a week and a half already, which requires the adoption of new restrictions at least in some states. And this is a reduction in production, a decrease in the number of jobs and, as a result, a fall in stock indices.
In general, there are still much more questions than answers. And that is precisely why the forecast that we gave last week turned out to be absolutely correct. recall that the opinions of experts were equally divided then: one third voted for the growth of the EUR/USD pair, one third - for its fall, and one third took a neutral position. The nearest levels were named: support - 1.1760, resistance - 1.1965. The EUR/USD pair spent the whole week around these boundaries, fluctuating in the range from 1.1745 to 1.1920, and eventually returned to the Pivot Point zone, along which it has been moving for 16 consecutive weeks. The final chord sounded at 1.1830;

- GBP/USD. Let us start right away with the results of the week - the long-awaited breakthrough did not happen in the Brexit negotiations. And the storms, when the pound, following the forecasts of 70% of experts, first rushed to the north, reaching a height of 1.3315, and then turned southward, falling by 210 points to 1.3105, ended in complete calm in the middle of this range - near the horizon 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. We can state looking at the chart of this pair that those 30% of experts who had sided with the bulls and voted for the return of USD to the 104.00-105.00 zone were right. Following the yield on long-term American securities, the pair even tried twice to break through the resistance at 105.65, but failed, and eventually completed the five-day period at 104.60, climbing 130 points;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with the crime news, which did not differ much last week from what had happened before. For example, hackers have reminded of themselves again. This time, Taiwanese laptop maker Compal Electronics fell victim to the ransomware DoppelPaymer. The hackers demanded 1,100 BTC (almost $17 million at the time of writing) for decrypting the files. According to information security experts from Group-IB, DoppelPaymer spreads on Windows networks, is known for attacks on corporate networks by gaining access to administrator rights and was among the three most aggressive and greedy ransomware of 2019.
One more piece of news. The intrigue with the mysterious transfer of bitcoins worth over $1 billion on the night of the US presidential election ended. The most fantastic versions had been put forward, but it turned out later that it was US Department of Justice that had confiscated almost 70,000 BTC from the wallet associated with the Silk Road darkmarket.
Now some statistics. The number of cryptocurrency ATMs has increased by 80% in 2020 compared to their number in 2019. An average of 23 new ATMs are installed every day. Currently, there are about 11 thousand of them in the world, and most of them are located in the United States and Canada. According to experts, most often such ATMs are installed by small startups that are trying to make money on the exchange of cryptocurrency for fiat.
Last week, exchanging bitcoins for dollars became even more profitable, since, as predicted by most experts, the BTC/USD pair crossed the $16,000 mark. The main cryptocurrency rose to a height of $16,460 at its peak, and it happened on Friday 13 - the so-called "day of trouble", which got its name from numerous superstitions and myths and was immortalized in the famous American horror film.   
However, as far as Bitcoin is concerned, this day, on the contrary, has delighted many holders of the reference cryptocurrency. Some began to take profits, hoping then to replenish their BTC wallets on a rollback. And those who were not going to sell their coins just got another dose of optimism in anticipating further growth in their capital.
If you look at the chart of the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market for the last week, you can clearly see that when the BTC/USD quotes fell, active buying of coins began again. This happened both with the price falling to $14,390 on November 07, and the next pullback two days later. As a result, step by step, the pair rose higher and higher, which indicates an overall positive sentiment, and which allowed the total capitalization, as a result, to grow in seven days from $447 billion to $465 billion.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index was in the same place as a week ago by the evening of Friday, November 13 - at 90, in a zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction. Recall that in a similar situation on November 07, the pair lost about 8%. True, it then took less than a day to restore the quotes to the previous values.
As for ethereum, as the Unfolded notes, its dependence on bitcoin has been weakening since the end of October. The correlation of the two largest cryptocurrencies decreases amid preparation for the release of the updated version of the ETH 2.0 network. It is this factor that has accelerated the separation of the main altcoin from BTC. Now the correlation is at its lowest level since early 2018. If ethereum rises in price to $500 in December against the background of weakening bitcoin (now ETH is holding at $460), then it will be able to finally "untie" from its "big brother".


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. According to 90% of 65 Wall Street Journal experts, uncertainty in financial markets should decrease with clarity regarding the outcome of the US presidential election and news about the COVID-19 vaccine. Moreover, the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, believes that much has become clearer to her personally, thanks to Joe Biden's victory, the expected success in the Brexit negotiations and vaccine development. As a result, the more clarity, the less desire to buy up dollars, and the greater the cravings for riskier assets. And this should lead to the growth of the EUR/USD pair.
But Ms. Lagarde's view is not yet the view of the whole market. The second wave of the pandemic is only gaining momentum. How the United States will behave under Biden's presidency is also unknown. So, for example, 58% of Wall Street Journal experts expect that the size of the next economic aid package will be $1-2 trillion, 29% vote for an amount less than $1 trillion, and the remaining 13% call the figure of $2-3 trillion The continuation and scope of the trade and economic war between Washington and Beijing and many other factors remain in question.
Unlike fundamental, technical analysis doesn't know what presidential elections, trade wars or vaccinations are. That is why, despite the uncertainty prevailing in the market, the indicator readings now look much more specific. Thus, 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are painted green. They are opposed by only 25% of the oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought.
But as for analysts, although moods similar to Christine Lagarde's expectations prevail, it is still difficult to call them dominant. The bulls have very little priority: 50% of the experts side with them. Bears have 40% of supporters. The remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.
The narrowest trading range for the pair is limited by the channel 1.1740-1.1845, the next one with the increase in volatility is 1.1700-1.1900, and finally, the maximum swing of fluctuations, since August, is 1.1600-1.2000.
Among the most important economic events of the coming week, the publication of macro-statistics on the US consumer market on Tuesday, November 17 should be noted;

- GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Speaks Marathon continues, albeit with less tension¬ - if last week Andrew Bailey spoke as many as three times, then for the next one only one of his speeches is scheduled, on Tuesday, November 17th. It is possible to predict with a high degree of probability that the purpose of such public activity of the banker is to convince the government and the public that the regulator has its finger on the pulse and that, despite the difficulties, one should look to the future with optimism.
However, the financier's optimism about the prospects of the British currency is shared by only trend indicators on H4 and D1 and oscillators on H4. But on D1, there is already complete turmoil among the oscillators - one third is colored green, one third is red and one third is neutral gray. This color scheme almost coincides with the forecasts of analysts, among whom 30% are in favor of the growth of the pair, 25% are in favor of its fall, and another 45% take a neutral position. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it definitely leans towards the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pound. The supports are 1.3100 and 1.3055, the goal is to return the pair to the echelon 1.2850-1.3000. Resistance levels are 1.3315 and 1.3285.

- USD/JPY. It is well known that the dynamics of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US securities - where they are, there it is. After falling to the horizon 103.15, the reversal of this pair and the rise to the level of 105.65 looks very impressive. But the result of the week turned out to be not so bright at all, because, after the rise, another fall followed, as a result of which the yen managed to win back more than 40% of its losses.
If you look at the D1 chart, the USD/JPY pair is still within the downlink, which began in the last week of March 2020. And whether it can reverse this trend depends largely on what happens to the real, rather than nominal, yield of 10-year US bonds. And it depends on the policy of the Fed, which, in turn, depends on who will soon be in the White House and what kind of strength awaits us in the Senate of this country.
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators on both timeframes, believe that the pair will keep within the descending channel and will try to test support in the 103.00 zone again. Supports are at 104.35 and 104.00 levels.  According to an alternative point of view, the pair is expected to rise first to resistance in the 105.00 zone, and then to a height of 105.65. The next goal is 100 points higher;
(https://i.imgur.com/46o6T7p.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. We have already written that the COVID-19 pandemic has become a winning card for bitcoin. The more money Central Banks print, the more investors begin to acquire bitcoin as a protective asset. But this card is not the only one. Many representatives of the crypto sphere were encouraged by the results of the US presidential election, where Joe Biden may have won. The crypto community believes that, unlike Donald Trump and his Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, Biden will be more liberal about digital currencies and the blockchain industry in general. However, the issue of Biden's reigning in the White House has not yet been resolved, as Trump intends to prove numerous irregularities during the vote in the courts. So this “Big Game” has not yet ruled out big surprises.
Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone believes that the bitcoin rate will rise to at least $20 thousand in 2021 and renew its all-time high. This is not McGlone's first positive prediction. In early October, he suggested that the first cryptocurrency would rise in price to $100,000 by 2025 and gave several reasons for this. These include the monetary policy of the states, which leads to the depreciation of fiat currencies.
Former associate of George Soros in the Quantum fund billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller agrees with McGlone, he also expects the dollar to fall on the horizon of three to four years. He revealed in an interview with CNBC that he invested some of the capital in the first cryptocurrency, while admitting that bitcoin may be a better tool for preserving value than gold.
A sharper growth curve for BTC/USD is predicted by a popular blogger under the nickname PlanB. So, if according to Mike McGlone's forecasts, the first cryptocurrency will reach $100 thousand only by 2025, PlanB expects to see it at this height by December 2021. The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, he observes how the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. According to the S2F model, this move of bitcoins to wallets for long-term storage leads to a reduction in their sales. This is especially true for the period after the halving, which leads to a supply shock and provokes a bull market for the next 18-20 months. This was the case for the first and second halving of miner awards in 2012 and 2016. According to PlanB, the dynamics of bitcoin after the third halving in May 2020 is developing like clockwork, which once again confirms he is right.
At the moment, the BTC/USD pair has reached the highs of January 2018. But mass profit-taking is holding back greed in anticipation of its growth to at least $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way. However, global factors, such as Trump's victory or mass vaccination against COVID-19, as well as Chinese miners who have relaunched their equipment and need cash money to cover capital expenditures and operating expenses, may reverse the trend.
60% of experts expect the BTC/USD pair to be fixed above the $17,000 level by the end of November. 20% give a neutral forecast, and the remaining 20% expect the pair to fall to the $14,000-15,000 zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 18, 2020, 03:25:15 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/M5qdOnJ.jpg)

- Hackers attacked large companies in Israel, traditionally demanding a ransom in bitcoins to regain access to confidential information. The new ransomware virus was named Pay2Key. It affects corporate programs through which reports on financial transactions and other data are transmitted. According to IT company CheckPoint, if the conditions set by the criminals are not met, they usually simply upload the databases to the darknet or to specialized resources on the Web, where anyone can view the materials or buy them.

- Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, in collaboration with investment company CI Global Asset Management, will launch a new bitcoin fund in Canada. The investment company will act as its manager, and the cryptobank will act as co-manager. The latter will carry out all Bitcoin transactions on behalf of the fund. The asset value will be based on the Bloomberg CFIX Bitcoin Index. The partners have already announced preparations for the IPO, as part of the initiative. The offer consists of $10 Class A and F shares.

- Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone is confident that the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency will reach $1 trillion in the second half of next year. However, first the price of bitcoin needs to overcome the main obstacle: the all-time high reached in December 2017 at around $20,089. Almost three years have passed since then, during which time the price managed to drop to $3,126, and then grow fivefold, reaching $18,000 at the moment.
“$20,000 is the main obstacle for bitcoin to capitalize at $1 trillion,” McGlone wrote. - The digital version of gold, but with a more limited supply and a history of adding zeros, appears to be in the early stages of pricing and may simply continue to grow in 2021. Its mass acceptance is growing."

- Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in Bitcoin. At the time of this writing, 650,369 users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative.
Comments from representatives of the cryptocurrency community appeared under the post. For example, the founder of the investment company Grayscale, Barry Silbert, recommended Williams to get acquainted with his firm. In the message, he stressed that "Game of Thrones" featured a "greyscale" in keeping with the name of his company, Greyscale.

- Thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. This forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. He believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.
 
- The founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz admitted that he once bought his first 500,000 ETH at the rate of $0.99 from Vitalik Buterin. According to the billionaire, the Ethereum project team decided that it would be nice for the community to have a buyer from Wall Street.
As for bitcoin, Novogratz learned about it in 2012 and purchased the first 30,001 BTC at $95 per coin. When asked why such a strange amount, the billionaire replied that at that moment the head of the hedge fund Pantera Capital Dan Morehead bought 30,000 coins, and "then we decided that we would buy 30,001 because we could not afford to have more."
Novogratz also admitted that he planned to sell bitcoin at $1,000 to buy a plane, but he was talked out of it by partner Pete Briger.

- New US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring the discussion of the first cryptocurrency to the national level. The politician said this in an interview with ABC News channel. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time,” said Lummis.

- The popular American businessman Robert Kiyosaki agrees with the senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
It is curious that in addition to his bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Kiyosaki wrote two more books in collaboration with US President Donald Trump.

- The price of bitcoin broke through the level of $18,000 with a market capitalization of $338 billion. BTC has grown by more than 50% over the past month as its net purchases on crypto exchanges have far exceeded those of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that 145,000 bitcoins left the exchanges in the last month, and only 27,000 BTC were mined during this time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: jack v544 on November 19, 2020, 05:14:00 PM
Bitcoin have more shiny future than gold.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 22, 2020, 01:26:35 PM
[SIZE="5"]Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 23 - 27, 2020[/SIZE]

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Last week, we talked again about complete uncertainty in the market, when investors just shrug their shoulders, not knowing what to expect in the near future. And then the forecast was appropriate: 50% of the experts sided with the bulls, 40% supported the bears, and the remaining 10% took a neutral position. And it turned out to be the most correct: the pair moved in a very narrow range of 1.1815-1.1890 for the whole week and completed the five-day period in its central part, at the level of 1.1858.
The reason for this is the same uncertainty caused by the unclear balance of power after the US election and, as you might guess, by the situation with the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
In addition to the fact that President Donald Trump has already reached the Supreme Court, where he is going to challenge the election results and where the Republicans have strong enough positions, there is now another conflict in the United States, between Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin and the Federal Reserve System.
Mnuchin has said that emergency lending programs have already achieved their goals and that they should be completed this year. The Fed would like to see all of these programs designed to support the economy during the pandemic continue to work in full. 12 of the 13 credit lines through which the Fed is pumping trillions of cheap dollars into the economy are due to close on December 31, and if that happens, the stock market will be under intense pressure. Which will trigger a sell-off in stocks and a rise in the dollar as a haven currency.
According to the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the time to complete emergency lending programs will not come soon. He is supported in this by the International Monetary Fund, which believes that the real state of the economy leaves much to be desired and the cessation of funding will lead to another collapse of world GDP.
It was reported on Thursday, November 19 that Republican Majority Leader in the US Senate, Mitch McConnell, seemed to be ready to resume negotiations on a new stimulus package. However, no one can say yet how these negotiations will end.
The situation with measures to counter the spread of COVID-19 also remains unclear. State authorities are trying to prevent a new round of the epidemic. New York has already decided to close schools, and the stock market went down on Thursday on the announcement of Mayor Bill de Blasio about the possible introduction of a ban on eating in public catering establishments. And although in Europe the situation with the pandemic is also quite difficult, it is still better than in the United States: thanks to the restrictive measures adopted in the EU, the virus is spreading more slowly here. But making any predictions is a thankless job in this case as well;
 
- GBP/USD. At the end of the week, the pound, albeit slightly, but grew up, having risen at the maximum from 1.3200 to 1.3310. And this despite the fact that negotiations on Brexit conditions between the EU and the UK were suspended on Thursday due to the infection of one of the members of the European delegation with the coronavirus. The pound was supported by the information about the resumption of negotiations between the Democrats and the US Republicans on fiscal stimulus, which we described above. Another support was the published data on retail sales in the UK, which increased by 1.2% in October. As a result, the pair closed the trading session closer to two-week highs, at 1.3290;
 
- USD/JPY. While the economies of the US and the EU are only trying to fight off another coronavirus attack, Japan is showing impressive success. GDP of this country for the third quarter increased to plus 5.0%. And this despite the fact that a quarter earlier it was minus 8.2%. Such indicators allow the yen to maintain its status as a major haven currency, making it more attractive, compared to the US dollar.
As a result, the forecast, which was given by 60% of analysts, supported by 90% of trend indicators and 70% of oscillators, was quite accurate. Recall that they felt that the pair would be kept within the downstream channel and would once again try to test the support in the 103.00 zone. True, the pair did not reach the target horizon and found a local low at 103.65. But its aspiration to the south is beyond doubt: having started the five-day week at 104.60, it finished it at 103.80; 

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast we gave the previous week suggested that the BTC/USD pair should consolidate above the $17,000 level by the end of November. At the same time, it was noted that it is hardly worth waiting for a massive profit-taking in the near future, as it will be restrained by greed in anticipation of the price growth at least to $20,000. Especially since there are no serious levels of resistance along the way. 
The reality has surpassed forecasts: having broken through the $17,000 and $18,000 levels, the pair soared to a height of $18,780, showing a weekly gain of 15%. In total, the first three weeks of November saw, bitcoin grow by 35%, and the total crypto market capitalization increase from $401 billion to $515 billion, and at the time of writing the forecast, on November 20, it continues to grow. Such volumes were only seen during the historic 2017 rally.
Among the main reasons for the growth, experts cite the increasing adoption of bitcoin by both private investors and large institutional investors. Thus, a survey of 700 millionaires conducted by DeVere Group showed that 73% of them either already own this cryptocurrency or are going to invest in it.
Another reason is the monetary policy of the US Fed. Amid the coronavirus pandemic and interest rate cuts, the US money supply has risen by 22% this year. And that is not the limit, as another stimulus package of about $2 trillion is expected under the QE program.
Finally, there is a third serious reason for the growth of the basic cryptocurrency. Recently, net purchases of bitcoin on crypto exchanges have been significantly larger than the sales of miners. Citing data from analyst firm Glassnode, cryptanalyst Will Wu pointed out that hourly purchases of BTC on exchanges are almost 20 times higher than the amounts attributed to miner sales. Another specialist, Lark Davis, also confirmed that only 27,000 BTC were mined in the last month, and as many as 145,000 coins left the exchanges. Moreover, most of them migrated to "cold wallets" as an object of accumulation.
It should be noted here that, according to experts, the imbalance between BTC supply and demand will only increase, stimulating the growth of the coin. The reason is that the Chinese government has started a fight against the largest community of miners¬: Beijing has banned ICOs, cryptocurrencies are classified as unwanted speculation, and miners' bank accounts have begun to be blocked. This is despite the fact that more than half of bitcoins are mined in China at the moment.
Returning to the results of the week, we note that Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index froze at 86 by the evening of Friday, November 20, in the zone that the developers of the index designated as "Extreme Greed". This value corresponds to the BTC/USD pair being strongly overbought and portends its correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The US problems were described in the first part of this review. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current 1.1800-1.1900 to 1.2500.
Looking to the near future, experts also give preference to the European currency. Thus, 65% of them expect that the pair will break the resistance of 1.1900 in the coming weeks and reach the zone of 1.2000-1.2100. Accordingly, 35% of analysts expect a decline to the level of 1.1700-1.1750. The likelihood of a fall to the November 4 low of 1.1600 is estimated so far at only 10%.
On the bulls side, there is a graphical analysis of 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Closest supports are at 1.1740 and 1.1685 levels.
As for the most important economic events of the coming week, one should pay attention to the data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released on Monday 23 November,  to macro statistics from the United States, including GDP for the third quarter and data on orders for durable goods  on Wednesday 25 November, and to the results of the meeting of the Federal Reserve and on Thursday, November 26;

- GBP/USD. The October growth in consumer activity in the UK was most likely caused by the fact that the population was buying goods for future use before the coming lockdown. Therefore, it is possible that in November this figure will go into negative territory. Sales through online stores will not save it either. We should not forget the increasing likelihood of parting with the EU without a trade agreement. The leaders of European Union member states have already begun preparations for a hard Brexit, according to The Times newspaper.
Analysts' opinion has so far been divided equally. But when switching from a weekly forecast to a monthly one, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, and 65% of experts do not bode well for the pound, expecting the GBP/USD pair to fall by 300-400 points.
But the indications of technical analysis still look quite optimistic. 75% of oscillators, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 are colored green. An alternative point of view is represented by 25% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1. Support levels are 1.3200, 1.3165, 1.3100, 1.3035 and 1.2855, resistance - 1.3310, 1.3400 and the August 1 high of 1.3480.
As for macroeconomic indicators, we advise you to pay attention to the November Markit PMI, which will be published on November 23 and, according to forecasts, may fall by more than 15%, from 51.4 to 42.5; 

- USD/JPY. Until there is some clarity regarding the further monetary policy of the United States, the preferences of conservative market representatives will remain on the side of the Japanese currency. This is what at least 45% of analysts think, supported by 80% of indicators on both timeframes. 25% of experts have supported the growth of the dollar and the USD/JPY pair, and the remaining 30%, together with graphical analysis on D1, have taken a neutral position. Supports are located at 103.65, 103.15 and 102.00, resistance levels are 104.50, 105.15 and 105.70.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws a rebound upward from the central line of the descending channel in the 103.40 zone on D1, and the pair's return to its upper border in the 105.40-105.65 area;

- cryptocurrencies. Many investors are wondering if it is too late to buy bitcoins now. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, together with other indicators, have been in the overbought zone for a long time, the pair has almost approached the cherished $20,000, and no serious correction has yet occurred.
Actress Maisie Williams, who portrays Arya Stark in Game of Thrones, asked her Twitter followers if she should invest in bitcoin. More than 650 thousand users expressed their opinion, of which 50.7% answered in the affirmative, 49.3% - in the negative. The result is almost equal, which indicates a possible reversal of the downward trend.
A number of specialists expect the BTC/USD pair to fall to support in the $15,700 zone. But there are also notorious pessimists who recall the catastrophe of 2018, when the price collapsed from an all-time high of $20,000 to $3.125.
However, now the situation is somewhat different than in 2018. Bitcoin has proven not only its survivability during this time, but also its ability to generate colossal profits. Even Jamie Dimon, CEO of banking giant JPMorgan, admitted it. Now his analysts advise investing in this cryptocurrency, which Daimon had called "fraud and stupidity" back in 2017 Another giant is the PayPal payment system, which has only recently introduced a service for investing in cryptocurrencies, due to high demand, it has already doubled the limit, which has now reached $20,000.
A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021. Fitzpatrick believes that the bitcoin market is now reminiscent of the 1970s, when dollar inflation led to increased demand for gold. In 1971, US President Richard Nixon carried out a series of reforms, abandoning the Bretton Woods system and pegging the dollar to gold. As a result, the price of this precious metal showed a steady increase over the next 50 years.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." He notes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic are leading to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s.
It seems that legislators in Washington are also turning to cryptocurrencies. While Beijing is putting pressure on its miners, new US Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to bring discussions on the first cryptocurrency to the national level. “21 million bitcoins will be mined and that's it, this is a limited emission. Therefore, I am confident that it will become an important player as a store of value over time” said Lummis.
Robert Kiyosaki, a popular American entrepreneur and author of the bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad, also agrees with the Senator. “Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”
As for the forecast for the coming days, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) have supported the sideways movement of the BTC/USD pair in the $18,000-19,000 range. And only 20% expect it to fall below $18,000. No one has voted for the breakdown of the $19,000 resistance in the coming week. However, if we talk about the forecast before the end of the year, 70% of analysts agree that bitcoin can update historical highs.
(https://i.imgur.com/QyfNfXS.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 25, 2020, 02:34:20 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/vtEsAMa.jpg)

- Musician Sean Lennon, son of world star John Lennon of The Beatles, has sided with the Bitcoin. “If everyone continued to use gold now, then it would have to be carried in bags. In addition, it is much easier to steal such an asset. Cryptocurrencies are almost completely independent. People need freedom, which the authorities, banks and other departments are trying to take away. Bitcoin allows you to use your funds to the maximum,” says Lennon Jr.

- Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, has wished bitcoin luck. According to him, the entire industry will benefit from the growth of the main cryptocurrency, but a decrease in the correlation between assets can lead to new problems. Because of this, the head of Ripple has urged investors to have both bitcoin and altcoins in their portfolio.
He has also noted that the rally in the basic cryptocurrency that began in November could indeed lead to new all-time highs. According to him, ill-wishers are now talking about a new pyramid, which could collapse at any moment. But according to Garlinghouse, bitcoin now has huge support from large investors, making a major correction almost impossible.

- American rapper Logic bragged about $6 million in bitcoin investments to his fans. According to the artist, the funds were transferred to cryptocurrency last month. He first bought bitcoins worth $2 million then, after which he decided to make two more of the same transactions. Many social media users have agreed that Logic has already made good money, since a month ago the cost of bitcoin was significantly lower.

- For the first time, the Lithuanian State Tax Inspectorate has sold the confiscated cryptocurrency worth 6.4 million euros. the assets include Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Monero. The funds received from their sale are directed to the state budget. Recall that in the United States, the Federal Marshals Service regularly holds auctions for the sale of cryptocurrency confiscated by law enforcement agencies. Also, soon the confiscated cryptocurrency will be put up for auction in Romania.

- PayPal chief executive Dan Shulman believes bitcoin will ultimately be used more for day-to-day payments rather than a store of value. “The use of cryptocurrency in daily purchases will increase its functionality and stabilize it,” Shulman said, noting that during the coronavirus pandemic, the use of cash has dropped significantly. According to him, up to 70% of consumers no longer want to deal with them.
PayPal opened access to Bitcoin and several altcoins for its customers earlier this month and is now working to integrate trading platforms. This will allow sellers of goods and services to accept digital payments as early as next year. Dan Shulman noted that before launching the service, the company held detailed consultations with world regulators.

- The number of Ethereum addresses on which at least one ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million addresses.  Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi sector.
Still, the current growth cannot be compared with the takeoff of the coin, which began at the end of 2017. Note that as of 01/01/2017, there were only about 66 thousand Ethereum wallets, and just a year later, when the price of ETH reached its historical maximum around $1300, there were already 873 thousand of them (an increase of 1223%).

- On November 24, the price of bitcoin surged above $19,000 for the first time since December 2017. At the time of publication, the market capitalization of this coin has reached $357 billion and exceeded the capitalization of such a giant as investment bank JPMorgan (about $349 billion).
Despite its CEO's skepticism about digital currencies, JPMorgan has already started serving cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Gemini, and bank analysts have confirmed that a number of institutional investors are considering bitcoin as an alternative to gold.

- Jaan Tallinn, co-founder of the telecommunications application Skype, has admitted in an interview with Fortune that he keeps a fairly large part of his personal fortune in cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin has also been supported by the chairman of the messenger company Intercom, Eogan McCabe. "I would like to announce that after years of pampering, I jumped firmly on the bitcoin train and now I want everyone else to do the same."

- Unknown people deceived the employees of the hosting provider GoDaddy and gained access to control over the domains of several cryptocurrency platforms. The attacks began on November 13, according to KrebsonSecurity.
The first victim was the Liquid cryptocurrency exchange. The hosting provider handed over control of the account and domain to an attacker. Liquid chief Mike Kayamori said the hacker managed to partially infiltrate the platform system and gain access to the document repository.
The second victim was the NiceHash cloud mining service: on November 18, experts found an unauthorized change of DNS settings in GoDaddy. NiceHash froze withdrawals for 24 hours until they were sure they were back to their original state.
Supposedly, cryptocurrency companies Bibox, Celsius and Wirex were also victims of the attack.

- Analyst Mati Greenspan believes that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is qualitatively different from the situation that was observed three years ago. In 2017, the rise in the price of BTC to $20 thousand was the result of the entry of speculators into the crypto sphere. Now the market is controlled by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive, the analyst quotes the CNBC channel. Greenspan expects a further update of bitcoin highs as early as this year.

- Wall Street veteran Max Kaiser believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day.
This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 29, 2020, 06:48:23 AM
[SIZE="5"]Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 30 - December 04, 2020[/SIZE]

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, most experts (65%) preferred the European currency. Graphical analysis, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on D1 also sided with the bulls. And this forecast turned out to be almost correct. “Almost”, because it was expected that, having broken through the resistance of 1.1900, the EUR/USD pair will reach the zone 1.2000-1.2100. However, it managed to rise only to the height of 1.1960 at the very end of the working week. Perhaps this is due to the weekend in the United States - Thanksgiving on Thursday November 26th and Black Friday on the 27th.
The pair is pushed to growth by the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the European region. For example, France has already passed the peak of the second wave of the pandemic, and on November 28, a phased weakening of the existing restrictions begins. But there are also numerous global factors that make this pair's movement difficult to predict. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the US last week was as much as 778 thousand - the worst figure in five weeks. This indicates a worsening economic situation.  That being said, Republicans and Democrats still have no way to agree on the amount of additional stimulus payments under the QE program. And incumbent President Donald Trump does not want to cooperate with the opposite camp at all.
As for the timing of the appearance of the vaccine against COVID-19 and how vaccination will affect the recovery of the economies of the Old and New Worlds, there is no clarity, only guesses. The assessments of experts are diametrically different about the decision of the US President-elect Joe Biden to appoint the former head of the Fed Janet Yellen to the post of Treasury Secretary, Markets hoped that some guidelines would be suggested by the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee on Open Markets. But there was not much clarity in it either, only an indecisive discussion of the asset purchase program. We quote: “Most of the participants believed that the Committee should update the forecast of actions over time and apply results-oriented guidance of a qualitative nature”. Well, and then everything is in the same style.
So far, the only indisputable thing is that the dollar index dropped from the March highs by more than 10% as a result of the Fed's monetary policy, reaching a two-year low, and the EUR/USD pair returned to the values of mid-August 2020. These facts are beyond doubt;

- GBP/USD. The result, which, due to general uncertainty, including negotiations on Brexit, was shown by this pair, can be called zero. Three weeks of November marked the Pivot Point at 1.3300. But if this line performed the function of resistance for the first two weeks, then it turned into support. The pair spent the entire five-day period in a lateral trend in a fairly narrow range of 1.3300-1.3400, and finished the trading session at its lower border;

- USD/JPY. The yen has made its unconditional contribution to the fall in the DXY dollar index. Its strengthening and the entry of the USD/JPY pair into the downward channel started at the end of March this year, in parallel with the spread of the coronavirus epidemic around the world. And in search of a safe haven currency, investors once again turned to the Japanese currency.
The pair not only kept within this channel last week, but also narrowed its trading range to 100 points in its upper half. As for the final indicators, they turned out to be even less - having started the five-day week at 103.80, it ended it at 104.05, showing an increase of only 25 points;

- cryptocurrencies. This time we will skip the introduction, like crime news, and immediately move on to the most important thing. Bitcoin being overbought is something we've written about on numerous occasions, something that has long been warned about by indicators including the RSI and Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Everything indicated that the market urgently needs a correction. And so it happened: the BTC/USD pair fell down, and now traders and investors are concerned about only two very important issues. 1) If this is a correction, at what level will it end? And 2) Is this a correction, and will the disaster that occurred with bitcoin in December 2017 happen again? Recall that then, getting close to $20,000, the pair turned sharply and found itself in the $3.125 region a year later, shrinking more than 6 times.
The current rally of the main cryptocurrency started in the first decade of September from the $10,000 area and was stopped on November 25 in the area of $19,500. This was followed by a collapse, and the local weekly low was fixed the next day at $16.280. After a slight rebound, BTC was quoted in the $17,000 zone on the evening of Friday 27 November.
At its peak on November 25, the total capitalization of the crypto market was $582 billion, but on Friday 27 November fell to $500 billion, losing 14%. This movement is fully correlated with the BTC/USD quotes. Much more interesting is that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still at 86 as it was seven days ago, and continues to indicate that the pair is strongly overbought. So, it is entirely possible that bitcoin has not yet completed its journey south.
As for altcoins, a number of them have recently shown more positive dynamics than the reference cryptocurrency. So, if the BTC/USD pair lost about 11% over the past seven days, the ripple (XRP/USD), for example, on the contrary, grew heavier by almost 70%, while ethereum (ETH/USD) ended this period with a zero result. Note that the leading altcoin still has good growth prospects. Business for the leading altcoin took off in the summer, thanks to the growth of the decentralized finance sector (most of these projects were created on the basis of Ethereum). To date, investors have already invested $13 billion in the DeFi-sector, and the number of wallets on which at least 1 ETH is stored has reached a historic high of 1.171 million.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We spoke about the fog that has covered financial markets in recent weeks, in the first part of this review. And even the appearance of a vaccine against COVID-19, for all its obvious usefulness, is unclear how it will affect the exchange rate of a particular currency. Indeed, the degree of damage to the economies of different countries by the coronavirus is different, and the speed of their recovery will also differ. Undoubtedly, the policies that the new US administration under the leadership of Joe Biden will carryout will play a huge role, including domestic policy and the end of trade wars with Europe and China. Considering scenarios for next year, Goldman Sachs predicts a 6% drop in the USD weighted rate in 2021, Citibank does not rule out that the dollar index could fall by 20%, and Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to grow from the current levels to 1.2500.
Most experts (60%) expect the pair to grow in the coming week as well. 100% trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on both H4 and D1 side with them. The nearest goal is still the same: to overcome the  September 01 high and consolidate in the zone of 1.2000-1.2100.
The opposite point of view is supported by the remaining 35% of analysts, graphical analysis and a quarter of oscillators that give signals that the euro is overbought on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.1880, 1.1800, 1.1740 and 1.1685.
Among the macro-events of the week, we can note the publication of data on business activity (ISM) on December 01 and 03, as well as data on the US labor market on December 02 and 04. In addition, we will find out the statistics on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Tuesday 01 December and Thursday 03 December. Also, the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on November 30 and December 1, as well as the head of the Fed Jerome Powell on December 1, may also influence the formation of short-term trends;

- GBP/USD. The general tendency towards the weakening of the dollar affects the forecasts for this pair as well. 75% of analysts predict its growth first to the upper border of the channel 1.3300-1.3400. Perhaps it will be able to break through the resistance of 1.3400 and rise another 80-100 points higher, but only 30% of experts vote for this. Graphical analysis on H4 and 90% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 also side with the bulls.
Indicators on H4 give a mixed picture. But graphical analysis on D1 showed that, after several days of movement in the 1.3300-1.3400 corridor, the pair may decline to 1.3200, after which it can return to the upper border of this corridor and even reach the September 1 high at 1.3480.
Support levels 1.3175, 1.3100 and 1.3000;

- USD/JPY. Albeit minimal, but still the growth of this pair last week made analysts think about its transition from a downward movement to a sideways movement. So, 60% of them assumed that it would move east in the range 103.70-105.30 for some time. Such a scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and only 10% of oscillators giving signals that the pair is oversold. In case of a breakout of the upper border of the channel, the pair will meet resistance at 105.70, then at 106.15.
The remaining 40% of experts, along with graphical analysis on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators on both timeframes, side with the bears, indicating the direction to the south for the pair. The first support is 103.70. It is followed by the 09 November low at 103.15, which corresponds to the center line of the descending medium-term channel. The ultimate target of the bears is the 2020 low, which the pair reached on March 09, at 101.17;
(https://i.imgur.com/lZoxeTq.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. If you look at the charts, you can see that the current situation is very similar to what it was in December 2017. At the same time, many experts say that the market is no longer the same, and that the collapse of three years ago is unlikely to repeat. Indeed, there is a growing acceptance of bitcoin by both private depositors and large institutional investors. Indeed, against the background of the coronavirus pandemic, the mass of fiat is growing, which increases the popularity of bitcoin as a protection against inflation. But what if the current fall is caused by the fact that large speculators simply started taking profits ahead of the end of the year? What if the stop orders set near the historic high have already started to work?
According to CoinTelegraph, shortly before the collapse, the All Exchanges Inflow metric showed an increase in BTC placement on exchanges, which clearly indicates the intentions of whales to start selling their crypto assets. But after the whales, looking at the current situation, many retail investors will follow. Moreover, Christmas holidays are not far off, and this is a period of increased need for fiat.
So there are plenty of resons for the further fall of the BTC/USD pair. But no compelling reasons for new growth are foreseen at least until early 2021. Although, of course, the pair's Knock-out options to the north are quite possible. Some of the major speculators may try to play bullish, or, for example, the Chinese government will deal another blow to its miners, creating a supply shortage in the crypto market. All of this could push the quotes back up.
Looking ahead, it is appropriate to quote the opinion of the analyst Mati Greenspan. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive. In connection with the above, Greenspan, like many other experts (there are now 65% of them), expects a further update of the bitcoin highs already this year.
In the meantime, the market is interested in the level at which the current correction will end. In general, is it a correction or a global trend reversal downward? In addition to the $17,000 zone, in which there was a consolidation at the end of the last working week, the next strong support may be the November 26 low in the $16,000-16,300 area, which fits within the Fibonacci correction. However, if the pair overcomes this support confidently, then it will return to the $14,700-15,700 zone, where it stayed in the first decade of November and from which the last stage of the upward rally started.
And at the end of the review, one more, already global, forecast from Max Kaiser. This Wall Street veteran believes the supply shock will drive bitcoin to rise to $1 million. “The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. This is why I think that institutions that buy bitcoins will do it directly from miners, and people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins as the price will skyrocket to $1 million per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 02, 2020, 02:55:56 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/qP4PAw2.jpg)

- Experts agree that Bitcoin will be able to withstand the pressure of banks and reach a new level. According to one of scenarios, the correction of the main cryptocurrency from $19,480 to $16,280, which was fixed last week, is associated with the decision of the US President Donald Trump Administration to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens, but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours. But I do not think this will lead to serious problems, as the market has already managed to recover from the correction,” said Mark Yusko, the head of Morgan Creek investment company. Moreover, according to experts of Stack Funds, this correction is not only “healthy”, but also will allow bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.

- According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely.

- An unknown user received 7 Ethereum coins (about $4,200 at the time of writing) for a solved puzzle that began with a billboard in the Warsaw subway. An ad with an ethereum address and hashtags #0xPOLAND and #0xPOLANDHEIST appeared at one of the metro stations and urged passengers to solve the puzzle hiding the secret phrase for withdrawing funds to ETH. The tips were posted on a Twitter account called 0xPoland. The final clue appeared in the print and electronic editions of Gazeta Wyborcza.
The organizers explained that they wanted to invite people to join their team "to create a decentralized financial infrastructure."

- Authorities in Delaware County (Pennsylvania, USA) paid hackers $500,000 in bitcoins after the county's information systems were attacked by the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The extortionists gained access to police records, payment documents, procurement information and other databases, however, it is argued that the attack did not affect the voting systems. After getting the ransom, the hackers advised authorities to change passwords and gave recommendations for configuring the Windows domain.

- The number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is growing steadily and has exceeded 820 thousand. These wallets hold 95% of the total digital gold market volume. This is evidenced by data from analytics companies Glassnode and BitinfoCharts. Smaller addresses store about $16 billion of digital gold. There are 32.6 million addresses with non-zero balance in the world.

- The value of bitcoin could surpass the $500 thousand mark, the founder of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who was called the first cryptocurrency billionaires, told CNBC. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
It became known in summer 2020 that the Winklevoss brothers are planning to make a film about their history of investing in cryptocurrency. Ben Mezrich's biographical book "Bitcoin Billionaires" will be filmed for this purpose.

- Global Macro Investor CEO Raul Pal has placed an order to sell all of his gold to invest in BTC and ETH at an 80/20 ratio. He announced this on Twitter and clarified that in addition to gold, there are some bonds and US dollars in his portfolio.
The head of Global Macro Investor expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made the bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency cad reach $250,000 in a year.

- A message from South America: the Venezuelan army is mining cryptocurrencies. A Digital Asset Mining Centre for the Armed Forces of the country has opened in Caracas. An area on the territory of the Fort Tiuna headquarters was allocated for the Centre. The military called the creation of a mining center" an unblockable source of income" and an example of cooperation with the civilian sector.
The amount of computing power has not been specified, but it is known that
 the Venezuelan National Guard has previously detained a truck with 315 mining blocks from Bitmain. The equipment was confiscated and has apparently become the basis for a new military crypto facility.

- Joe Biden's administration should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar like China. This is the opinion of Niall Ferguson, a former professor at Harvard and Oxford and now a senior researcher at Stanford.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.

- Payment system Visa has entered into cooperation with crypto startup BlockFi to launch a credit card with cashback in bitcoin in early 2021, writes Bloomberg. Users of the "Bitcoin Rewards Credit Card" product will receive a cashback of 1.5% of the amount spent in BTC and will also receive $250 in cryptocurrency once they spend more than $3,000 in the first three months. The rewards earned will be automatically transferred to the client's account in BlockFi, where they will be available for various transactions or withdrawal to a third-party wallet.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 04, 2020, 01:18:32 PM
[SIZE="5"]NordFX Sums Up November Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders[/SIZE]


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November.

The maximum profit for that month was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx. The client's profit of 40.153 USD was obtained mainly from transactions with the EUR/AUD currency pair and gold (XAU/USD).

Second is the trader from India (account No.1485xxx), whose profit was just under 40 thousand dollars (38.930 USD), and was obtained through trading on many pairs, including GBP/USD, USD/CHF and GBP/NZD.

The third place in the November TOP 3 belongs to the Vietnamese trader (account No. 1511xxx), with a result of 15.925 USD, who traded in the NZD/USD, AUD/USD and XAU/USD pairs.

The passive investment services in November:

- in CopyTrading, the signal provider under the nickname 78XGaming showed the maximum growth with a fantastic result of + 1539% with a drawdown of 79%;

- in the PAMM service, the results are much more modest. Here the manager with the nickname ProCapital became the leader, showing an increase of 15.51%. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 9.8%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 06, 2020, 07:15:03 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 07 - 11, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. The dollar continues to fall, the euro continues to rise. The pair has traveled from 1.1600 to 1.2175 since early November. The main reasons for the weakening of the US currency lie in the growing global risk appetite. Against the background of positive news about vaccines against coronavirus, the market has believed in the imminent recovery of the global economy. Moreover, not the US economy, but the economies of other countries, including developing. The situation in the United States itself is not encouraging: the main indicators, including business activity and employment of the population, turned red here last week. Suffice it to say that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) collapsed from 610K in October to 245K in November, due to new quarantine measures.
Investments in the US economy are becoming unpopular, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices have switched to a sideways trend, treasury (government debt) yields are not growing, but inflationary expectations, on the contrary, have soared to annual highs. Interest rates are minimal, which contributes to the departure of investors to other assets, overseas.
The interesting thing is that Europe has enough problems as well. Based on the dynamics of purchasing managers' indices, it is the EU, not the United States, that is now the main brake on the world economy. Yes, Joe Biden has welcomed the compromise proposal for another $908 billion aid package for the US economy, adding that he would not be limited to it. But the ECB, according to the Bloomberg forecast, will expand the emergency asset purchase program by €500 billion at a meeting on December 10, extending its term from mid to late 2021. In addition, the European regulator will also increase the scale of LTRO, a program for long-term anti-crisis refinancing of banks. Added to this are concerns with the UK over the Brexit agreement, plus disagreements with Poland and Hungary over the COVID-19 Rescue Fund and interest rates in the EU are even lower than in the US.
In general, there are enough problems on both sides of the Atlantic. But, nevertheless, as expected by most experts (60%), the EUR/USD pair continued its growth last week, ending the five-day period at 1.2120. And the point here is not so much in the strength of the euro, but in the weakness of the dollar, the DXY index of which fell to 90.5 for the first time in two years;

- GBP/USD. The British currency has also grown against the dollar, having risen by 670 points since early November. And this despite the fact that London and Brussels cannot come to an agreement on the Brexit terms, and the tough position of France in general makes one doubt that such agreements are possible.
The forecast, which was supported by 75% of analysts last week, was absolutely correct: the pair rose to the upper limit of the 1.3300-1.3400 channel. Then it was broken down and the pair moved further north to 1.3540 and finished the trading session at 1.3435.
The pound, of course, was supported by the weakening dollar. In addition, the bulls were also helped by the announcement of the signing of a contract between the British government and Pfizer for the purchase of 40 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine, 10 million of which the UK will receive next week. The market was also pleased with the removal of a number of quarantine measures in the country, and the decision on partial admission of spectators to the national football league games;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair also turned out to be correct. Supported by graphical analysis on D1, 60% of experts had said that the pair would stop its decline and move east in the 103.70-105.30 range. In reality, this lateral channel turned out to be somewhat narrower, 103.66-104.75. And the reason for the emerging equilibrium between the dollar and the yen was the same rise in risk sentiment and a drop in interest in such protective assets as the Japanese currency. The final chord of the week sounded in the central zone of the specified channel at 104.15;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin has been pounding towards the psychologically important $20,000 level over the past two weeks. And although it updated the historical high, reaching the mark of $19,930 on December 01, all attempts to conquer the height of twenty thousand ended in profit taking and a rollback.
According to a number of experts, in addition to triggering stop orders, there are also political reasons that force investors to go to fiat. So, according to one version, the correction of the main cryptocurrency on November 25-26 from $19,480 to $16,280, which had many chances to develop into a catastrophic collapse, was associatedwith the decision of the administration of American President Donald Trump to tighten control over the circulation of digital assets. Officials chose to change the rules for registering cryptocurrency wallets as one of the ways to manage transactions.
Many crypto companies have already begun developing new versions of wallets, which will receive permits from the US Securities and Exchange Commission before launching. Trump is probably trying to resist China in this way, which is preparing to release its own cryptocurrency. If the digital yuan becomes a cross-border payment instrument, it can be used instead of the dollar. This will make sanctions against China ineffective, and Washington will lose the ability to put pressure on Beijing.
“Bitcoin has an indirect relationship to everything that happens", Mark Usko, head of Morgan Creek investment company, comments, "but even the first statements by representatives of the American government about the desire to start controlling the industry brought it down by several thousand dollars in a matter of hours". 
After this drop, bitcoin returned to the $19,000 zone very quickly. Along with the BTC/USD quotes, the total market capitalization of the crypto market has also recovered. It stood at $582 billion at its peak on November 25, then dipped to $500bn on November 27. And now, seven days later, on December 04, it is at $575 billion.
According to analytical companies Glassnode and BitInfoCharts, the number of addresses containing more than one bitcoin is also steadily growing, exceeding 820 thousand at the moment. These wallets hold 95% of the total BTC market volume. In total, there are 32.6 million addresses with a non-zero balance in the world.
Despite the seemingly positive dynamics, the fall ofbitcoin by 16.4% on November 25-26shows the precariousness of its current state. Both investors and traders understand this, and they are ready to start massively closing long positions at any time. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 86 to 92 in seven days, showing that the overbought coin is only getting worse, which could lead to another strong correction. In the meantime, the pair has chosen the $19,000 horizon as the Pivot Point, along which it has been moving throughout the past week.
As for altcoins, they, rise and fall for the most part, following the reference cryptocurrency. So, despite the increase in the total capitalization of the crypto market, the bitcoin dominance indicator has remained practically unchanged and is 62.44% (62.33% a week ago). Similar indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have hardly changed either. Although, we can highlight the ripple (XRP/USD), whose share in the total market capitalization has grown 1.8 times over the month, from 2.69% to 4.89%. This is because Flare Networks will airdrop spark coins on December 12th based on a snapshot of all XRP Ledger addresses. Thanks to this, each ripple holder will receive free spark in a 1:1 ratio, which is reflected in the popularity of this coin and the growth of its quotes. After a long stagnation in the region of $ 0.24, it rose to $ 0.77 at the high over the past three weeks, and it is quoted in the zone of $ 0.60 at the time of writing.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The higher this pair rises, the more willingness of large speculators to start taking profit on it. Moreover, the end of the financial year is just around the corner, it's time to take stock. In order for the dollar to continue its fall, the risk sentiment needs constant recharging, but the market may lose it. US stock indexes have been holding sideways since November 09. But this stability is very relative and threatens with a sudden collapse, which will entail the withdrawal of investors from the stock market in favor of the dollar.
For example, a reassessment of the optimistic expectations related to vaccination against the COVID-19 may lead them to this. And there are reasons for this. For example, the Pfizer has already reported problems with supplies, due to which the volume of vaccine production in 2020 will be halved, from 100 million to 50 million doses. A sharp rise in the yield of 10-year US government bonds could also strike the stock market. And you never know what else can happen this year rich in surprises!
There will be a meeting of the European Council, the ECB's decision on the interest rate and a subsequent press conference by the bank's management on Thursday, December 10. But the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on December 16 seems to be more interesting.
At the moment, graphical analysis on H4, 90% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already giving active signals that the pair is overbought. The pair is expected to decline to the 1.1850-1.1950 zone by the majority (65%) of experts as well, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Immediate support is at 1.2000. Resistance levels are 1.2175, 1.2200, 1.2260 and 1.2320;
(https://i.imgur.com/xNEJOo3.jpg)

- GBP/USD. Significant for this pair is the level of 1.3500, which it reached at the end of last week. Graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 predict further movement to the north. Resistance levels are 1.3625 and 1.3725. However, only 40% of analysts agree with this scenario. The remaining 60% believe that this pair will also turn down, following the EUR/USD reversal. Moreover, if the negotiations on Brexit do not come out of the impasse, its fall may turn into a collapse. However, even if the agreement is concluded, it is likely to be formal and very limited, and is unlikely to please the fans of the British currency. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3285, 1.3175. The ultimate goal of the bears in December is to return to the 1.3000 horizon;

- USD/JPY. The dollar and the yen have reached a temporary truce due to rising risk sentiment, moving to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it smoothly slides south since the end of March. And the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that this downtrend will continue. More precisely, it will be a lateral movement with a dominance of bearish sentiment. The main resistance will be the level of 104.50, fighting off from which, the pair will fall first by 100 points lower, and then reach the November 09 low in the zone of 103.15.
An alternative point of view is held by 30% of analysts who expect that the pair will first reach the upper border of the two-week sideways channel 104.75, and then try to consolidate above the horizon of 105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The fall of bitcoin on November 25-26 by 16.4% occurred, according to a number of experts, due to the tough decision of the Donald Trump administration regarding digital assets. However, if the team of the current US President is an obstacle to the development of the crypto market, then everything can change with the arrival of Joe Biden in the White House. Former Harvard and Oxford professor and now Stanford senior fellow Niall Ferguson believes that the administration of the new President should focus on integrating bitcoin into the US financial system instead of creating a digital dollar following China's example.
In a new article, the world-renowned economic historian looked at the US dollar, gold and bitcoin as the monetary revolution continued, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Drawing parallels with the plague of the 14th century, the historian noted that the pandemic let digital gold cover a decade-long path in only ten months. And this happened not only because of the closed banks, but also due to the tightening of financial supervision.
According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, bitcoin volatility can be expected in the near future, but it is unlikely to sink below $12,000, and even a correction to such levels is unlikely. The above-mentioned correction on November 25-26, according to experts from Stack Funds, is not only "healthy", but will also allow Bitcoin to prepare for a new high of $86,000.
The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year, and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.
Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500k mark. He called the current price of the main digital coin “an opportunity to buy” as it could rise in price by 25 times in the future. “Bitcoin will surpass gold. If this happens, the capitalization of this cryptocurrency will exceed $9 trillion,” predicted Tyler Winklevoss.
In the meantime, the probability that the BTC/USD pair will be able to gain a foothold above $20,000 by the end of this month is estimated at 30%. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 09, 2020, 03:24:59 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/NYaw77a.jpg)

- Interest in Bitcoin has reached the summer 2019 level. According to Google Trends, the numbers began to increase almost immediately after the reference coin rose in value to $12,000. Comparing the current growth with the growth in December 2017, followed by a collapse, analysts write: “In December 2017, the main cryptocurrency became a real trend, staying in the top for search queries. Now, the dynamics is about the same, but the indicators are still lower than at the end of 2017. Most likely, the peak of interest will be at the moment when the historical high is broken."

- Bloomberg experts believe that the value of bitcoin in 2021 may increase to $50,000. This is evidenced by a partial repetition of a number of factors that were observed in 2017 during the famous rally. However, Bitcoin now has significantly more support, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback.
“There is no reason for a change of Bitcoin's movement direction right now,” Bloomberg writes. - The dollar is gradually losing its position, pulling along other fiat currencies. All this is seen by investors who are forced to switch to alternative asset types.” Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.

- One of the factories of the Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Foxconn has become a victim of the DoppelPaymer ransomware virus. The hackers demanded 1804 BTC (about $33.8 million at the time of writing) from the company. The attackers stole approximately 100 GB of files, encrypted the company's North American segment (1200-1400 servers), deleted 20-30 TB of backups, and made some of the documents publicly available.
In early November, DoppelPaymer attacked another Taiwanese laptop manufacturer, Compal Electronics. Then the attackers demanded 1100 BTC for decryption.

- Bitcoin will rise to $29,569 next year, according to a report from the fintech company Cindicator. This figure was obtained from a survey of over 156,000 users. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
According to the same forecast by Cindicator, the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach $21,000 this year.

- Edward Snowden, former special agent of the CIA and the US National Security Agency (NSA), who fled to Russia, recalled that he had been right about the prospects for bitcoin. During the March crash to $3,820, Snowden announced that it was time to buy bitcoin as there was little reason to panic. Now the ex-spy has become an even more staunch supporter of digital gold. “I found out today that the dollar has depreciated against bitcoin by 99.93% since 2013,” he wrote.

- US Global Advisors investment company CEO Frank Holmes suggested that gold, bitcoin and ethereum could rise next year. At the same time, Holmes believes that the price of bitcoin and gold is influenced by completely different factors. Thus, the increase in the value of the first cryptocurrency was influenced by the May halving of the reward to miners to 6.25 BTC. “If global gold mining companies announce that they will cut gold supplies by 50%, I can assure you that gold will cost $10,000 per troy ounce. It's all about supply and demand,” Holmes explained.
As for Ethereum, its rate is driven by the latest advances in decentralized finance (DeFi). DappRadar researchers have recently reported that 96% of the total DeFi transactions was on ethereum in Q3 2020, which also led the daily number of active wallets.

- American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones announced last May that he was investing in bitcoin to hedge against inflation and now calls bitcoin an undervalued asset. “$500 billion is the wrong market capitalization for bitcoin in a world where there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions there are in fiat currency. I assume it is being misjudged in terms of its inherent capabilities, ”he told Yahoo! Finance. “Cryptocurrencies will have a crazy rocket flight with ups and downs along the way,” he says. - Bitcoin, in particular, will be significantly higher in 20 years than it is now. From here the road for it lies to the north.”
Jones is one of the most recognizable traders in the world today. He rose to fame in the 1980s when he predicted a Black Monday market crash in 1987. He is also associated with the rapid development of the global hedge fund industry. Tudor Investment Corporation manages $10 billion in assets, and the investor's personal fortune is estimated at $5 billion.

- Cuban residents have begun to turn to cryptocurrencies more often after the tightening of US sanctions. On November 23, the Western Union payment system closed 407 offices in Cuba due to restrictions imposed on money transfers to the country, writes Deutsche Welle. Cubans began using bitcoin and some altcoins to circumvent sanctions. At the same time, the volume of many transfers does not exceed $20, and there are about 10 thousand active holders of digital assets in the country.
Recall that Cuba came in second in terms of the number of searches related to bitcoin. In terms of interest in the first cryptocurrency, the country was second only to Nigeria.

- Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year, but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing.”


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Suants on December 12, 2020, 08:57:42 AM
good
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 13, 2020, 01:40:52 PM
Forex Technical Analysis: Basics, Theory, Tools


The Forex market is a place where almost everyone has every chance to make money. But do not confuse luck with a professional approach. Trader is a profession that needs to be learned. Otherwise, intuition will fail sooner or later, and a series of trades will turn into a continuous loss. That is why, as a start to your career, it is better not to waste time, but to start by studying technical market analysis. It will let you trade with awareness.

Technical analysis is a global trend in the study of price behavior, its dynamics and external signs, which is based on statistical historical data. It is important to note this trend includes a huge arsenal of tools and specific movements that allow to analyze the quotes from different angles. Its main feature is its historical recurrence, cyclicality. Thanks to it, you will not only learn how to navigate in the current situation, but also to predict the future.

Whom Technical Analysis of Graphs Suits

There are two main areas that beginners should study at the level of theory ­ - fundamental and technical analysis.

The first is difficult, as it requires an understanding of macroeconomics, world politics and their relationship with each other. Therefore, it is logical that people with the appropriate education are inclined towards the fundamental analysis.

If you adopt technical analysis (TA), you will not need to study complex economic theory and immerse yourself in the monetary policy of each individual state or bloc. You will not need to think about how, for example, the presidential elections of any country might affect the demand for oil on the world market, and that, in turn, the quotes of a particular currency.

Unlike fundamental analysis, technical analysis assumes that the market has already taken into account all these factors in its current quotes. The price dynamics, its movement features demonstrate the psychological portrait of the bidders. Knowing what motivates the participants, the key players, it is possible to build unique trading systems.

Technical analysis is suitable for beginners not because of its simplicity, but because of its versatility. The history of its development gave birth to thousands of instruments and views on price movement. Each trader can choose something of their own, without delving into complex mathematical calculations. Regardless of your background, profession, type of character, Forex technical analysis is an effective solution for making money in the foreign exchange markets for both beginners and experienced professionals.

Trader's Work Environment

One of the main challenges in learning to work with charts can be the choice of the working environment and the object of study. For example, one of the key questions is the choice of the currency pair to be traded, the time frame and, of course, the trading terminal.

The trader adjusts all these parameters personally, depending on their goals. For example, the brokerage company NordFX provides its clients with the opportunity to trade on MetaTrader 4, the world's most popular terminal. It can be both a stationary MT4 terminal and its mobile versions, which allow you to analyze the market, open and close up to 100 trading orders at any time from anywhere in the world where there is Internet access. MetaTrader 4 has a friendly interface, a huge number of built-in useful features and is a powerful weapon in the hands of the trader. You can learn more about how MT4 works in the corresponding section on the official NordFX website.

Time Frame

A time frame is a time interval during which one candle or bar is formed. Using different intervals allows you to cut off market noises and catch global trends, moving from a shorter time frame to a larger one.

In MT4 there are 9 options for presenting quotes charts - М1, М5, М15, М30 (that is, 1 candlestick or bar corresponds to 1, 5, 15 or 30 minutes), H1, H4, D1, W1 and MN (respectively, 1 candlestick is equal to 1 hour, 4 hours, 1 day, 1 week and 1 month). Thus, by choosing the one-minute time frame, you will see on the screen how the price has changed every minute for several hours, and by choosing, for example, the MN time frame, you will see the price change over several years.

Also, you will see the so-called tick charts in MT4 which are formed not by time, but by trades. One deal has passed - one tick has formed. And there can be several such ticks even within one minute.

Each trader selects the necessary interval for themselves, depending on the desired trading activity, their trading strategy and, ultimately, temperament and discipline. The higher the timeframe, the more averaged the picture you get. Some traders , called scalpers, can open and close trades in a very short time, so they use M1, M5 time frames and tick charts. Others are guided by long-term trends, relying on charts not lower than H4 or D1.

Currency Pairs

There are a lot of recommendations as to which specific currency pairs to use when trading. Moreover, in most cases, the emphasis is on the main, so-called "major", currency pairs, consisting of the main and most liquid currencies - USD, EUR, JPY, CHF, GBP. Pairs using AUD, CAD and NZD (Australian, Canadian and New Zealand dollars) as well as CNH (Chinese yuan) are also popular.

Basically, Forex technical analysis is applicable not only to these currency pairs, but also to rarer ones, such as ZAR (South African rand), SGD (Singapore dollar) or NOK (Norwegian krone). It can also be used to forecast many other trading instruments available to clients of the NordFX brokerage company. These are cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, ethereum and many others), gold, silver, oil, shares of various large companies and leading stock indices. That is, technical analysis is a universal method that can be used to make money not only in Forex , but also in other markets - stock, commodity, cryptocurrency.  However, the technical analysis tools used each time require individual settings depending on the currency pairs and time frames used in trading.

So, for example, exotic currencies and cryptocurrencies are more difficult for technical analysis, since interest in them is weaker, there are fewer transactions, and trading volumes are lower. As a result, any news or manipulation, even by a not very large speculator, can lead to sharp unpredictable jumps in quotations.

Technical Analysis Tools

Do not confuse trading tools and technical analysis tools. The first is what you trade (currencies, cryptocurrencies, stocks, etc.), while the second is what you use to analyze the market and make decisions about a particular transaction. The diversity of this area has no boundaries. Every year, many new and unique tools are invented that allow you to make more and more accurate trading decisions. At the same time, the vast majority of them can be divided into the following groups.

Graphic Tools

Using graphic tools, the trader sets out patterns on the price chart and simplifies the forecasting process. They can be based on both a complex mathematical model and ordinary geometric shapes, the main task of which is to simplify the work with chart markings. These include: lines, channels, shapes, icons. As a simple example, the graph shows a down-to-date price channel that has changed to an uptrend.

All graphical instruments, based on the Fibonacci numerical sequence (levels, arcs, extension, time zones) are commonly called the mathematical model in this analysis. This also includes developments using the methods of William Gunn (grid, line, fan, pitchfork), pitchforks of Andrews and Schiff, Eliott waves and the methods of a number of other well-known scientists and practicing traders.

With their help, you can determine the direction of the trend, possible pivot points, the depth of the rollback (correction), and form the current trading range.

Indicators

This is a separate area, the essence of which is a mathematical way of averaging and converting the price into different graphs (rarely tables), allowing to cut off the superfluous and highlight the most important characteristics, and therefore more convenient for analysis and forecasting. This can be work according to given formulas with trading volumes, volatility, speed and acceleration of price changes and, of course, trends.

There are a lot of variations of indicators, and there are both basic, time-tested and custom ones. Basic or standard indicators are usually called those that are included in the trading terminal toolkit by default. There are more than 50 of them in MetaTrader 4. A number of them are based on the aforementioned mathematical models of graphic analysis. Custom indicators can be either completely original developments or a modification of standard ones. There are thousands of them at the moment, and many new ones appear every day, which can be purchased or downloaded for free online and integrated into your personal MT4 terminal.

They are divided by their function and purpose:
- Trending (Moving Average, ADX, Bollindger Bands);
- Oscillators (Stochastic, RSI, RVI, MACD);
- Volumes.

The first huge category serves the trader in order to highlight the trend, its strength and direction, predict changes, cut off noise. The second group shows the overbought and oversold market, giving entry and exit points (for opening and closing trades). Volumes demonstrate the involvement of players and their money supply in the market. This is a kind of way to see what capital is behind the selected movement of an asset. All trading add-ons underlying the indicators are the transformation of mathematical formulas.

Patterns

Patterns are graphic patterns that are often repeated in the market, the appearance of which, according to long-term observations, can lead to one or another price movement. These are patterns of formation of bars or candles , their combinations, which are cyclical and in most cases lead to a pre-known scenario. The concepts of "Japanese candle" and "candle models" on Forex are discussed in a separate article in more detail. Here we note that in practice all models are divided into:
- Reversal Pattern;
- Uncertainty Pattern;
- Trend Continuation Pattern.

Each of them can lead to a specific scenario. However, one should not take any of them as an axiom. The efficiency changes in the conditions of the selected time frame, currency pair and type of trading asset. This is why each pattern is tested before being used in real trading conditions. Popular candlestick patterns: hammer, hanging man, harami, doji, falling star, absorption. Graphic shapes: wedge, rectangle, double top, head and shoulders, cup, flag, pennant.

The Main Purpose of the Study and Use

The mistake of beginners is that they try to absorb as much knowledge, and then use all of it in practice. In fact, it is impossible to do that, because it can lead to a “brain explosion”. Mutually exclusive conditions constantly arise in the market. For example, the trend line indicates a dominant up market, and the candlestick formation indicates an imminent reversal. We see a downward trend on the M30 timeframe, while on H4, it, on the contrary, is pointing upwards, and the oscillator is in a neutral position at the same time. What is the priority?

The main task of technical analysis is to give the conditions on the basis of which you will create a trading strategy.

A trading strategy is a set of rules and conditions that can include the readings of one or several indicators, analysis of patterns, and the construction of your own chart patterns on different time frames. A fundamental analysis of macroeconomic statistics and political events can be added there. And the more of these rules you put into your strategy, the worse it will be... the harder it will be for you to analyze the situation and make trading decisions.

There is this proverb — “All in good fun.” The complication of a trading strategy makes it impossible to apply it, even if you create a trading robot instead of your own brain and use all the capabilities of your computer.

A trading robot or a trading advisor is a computer program that will automatically implement the trading strategy embedded in it according to a given algorithm. The advantages are obvious: the program trades 24 hours a day, seven days a week, does not give in to panic or the excitement inherent in humans, and operates within a strictly specified algorithm. There are tens of thousands of trading advisors for MT4 . And now it is easier to buy a ready-made or even download one for free on the Internet than to invent your own with the help of a programmer. Most of the ideas that come to mind for a novice trader have long been implemented. However, keep in mind that an expensive advisor is not necessarily a good one, and a free one is not necessarily a bad one. Quite often the opposite is true.

How to Learn to Make money

The best way to learn is to use good literature. The main condition ­is to read the books of real traders. We can recommend the following fundamental textbooks among the huge number of repetitive editions:
- Jack Schwager “Technical Analysis. Full course”;
- Thomas DeMark "Technical Analysis - The New Science";
- Steve Nison “Japanese Candles: A Graphic Analysis of Financial Markets.”

Also note that the broker NordFX has created a special section "Education" on its website, where you can gather a lot of information necessary for both beginners and experienced traders. All this useful knowledge is presented not only in the form of dozens of books and articles, but also in the video format.

To consolidate your knowledge, you should definitely go from a theoretical plane to a practical one. The demo account NordFX will help you with this, on which you can, absolutely risk-free, gain real experience trading virtual money.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 14, 2020, 08:00:29 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 14 - 18, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged, at the same level of 0%. The euro had a chance to somewhat weaken its position against the dollar. However, it missed it due to the ECB's decision to ramp up the volume of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) by another €500bn and a subsequent comment from the head of that bank Christine Lagarde. Actually, there was nothing unexpected in this decision, we predicted such an outcome a week ago. In addition, it definitely fell into the middle of the market participants' forecast of €400-600 billion. But it was precisely this predictability that prevented the EUR/USD pair from turning south.
The hawkish sentiment of Christine Lagarde's statements also supported the European currency. It appears she tried to lower the euro rate by announcing that the ECB is closely monitoring the euro. However, the decision of the regulator not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets influenced investors much more than a simple statement about “monitoring the exchange rate”. And the unexpectedly hawkish remark of Ms. Lagarde that if the situation with the Eurozone economy improves enough, it may not be necessary to use all these €500 billion, put the final end to the efforts of the bears to move the pair south.
As a result, having dropped to the level of 1.2060, the pair rushed to the north again, rising to the height of 1.2165, and completed the five-day period in the middle of this range, in the 1.2113 zone, practically in the same place where it started on Monday;

- GBP/USD. The weakening pound has outpaced the weak dollar. The British currency slid down as the threat of a "hard" Brexit becomes more evident. The latest statements by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen suggest that there will be no real agreement on the terms of Britain's separation from the EU. Johnson advised his citizens to prepare for a "tough" exit, von der Leyen said about the same.
It is worth emphasizing the word "real" here, since some agreement may still be reached, and we will not see the "iron curtain" blocking the tunnel under the Channel. Neither side needs it, much less at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Most likely, the document that will be called the "Agreement", will have many blank spots left, which the parties will start filling in as early as 2021. But such an inferior contract will definitely not benefit the pound. The proof of this is what happened to the GBP/USD pair last week.
From the high of Friday 04 December to the low of Friday 11 December, the pound lost more than 400 points! And this despite the fact that the pair did not follow the EUR/USD in the wake, as it was until recently, but began to live a completely independent life. Having reached the local bottom at 1.3135 on Friday December 11 afternoon, it managed to win back about 90 points by the evening, putting the final chord at the level of 1.3225. However, this bounce may well turn out to be just a small correction in the pair's tendency to the south;

- USD/JPY. Due to the rise in risk sentiment, investors have lost interest in such protective assets as the dollar and the yen. As a result, these currencies reached a temporary truce and moved to a sideways trend. However, the pair never went beyond the medium-term channel, along which it has been smoothly sliding south since the end of March. And, giving a forecast for last week, the vast majority of experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, suggested that the lateral movement with bearish sentiment dominance would be continued.
In general, everything happened like that. The pair continued to move eastward, gradually reducing the amplitude of oscillations to the range of 103.85-104.55 and forming a medium-term “pennant” figure with the main support around 103.65. As for the end of the trading session, the finish was set at 104.00 this time;

- cryptocurrencies. Financial conglomerate Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" US banks, has published a new investment report, in which a separate page under the heading "Bitcoin - 2020's best performing and most volatile asset" is devoted to the cryptocurrency market. The authors do not directly encourage clients to invest in digital assets, but generally maintain an optimistic tone regarding their prospects. “Over the past 12 years, they have grown from literally nothing to a $560 billion market cap,” writes Wells Fargo. "Hobbies don't usually last 12 years."
The bank notes that bitcoin is up 170% over the year but warns about its high volatility. “Investing in cryptocurrencies today is akin to living in the early days of the 1850s gold rush, which involved more speculation than investing”, the bank's analysts think. And yet they add that cryptocurrencies attract a lot of attention, but not necessarily a lot of investment. (Here the title of William Shakespeare's play immediately comes to mind: "Much Ado About Nothing").
It is difficult to disagree with this: the total cryptocurrency market capitalization now is far from even its own high at the beginning of January 2018, $830 billion. And this is in a world where, according to billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, "there is a $90 trillion stock market, and God knows how many trillions are in fiat currency."
The crypto market went down another $50 billion last week: starting from $575 billion, it dropped to $525 billion. Optimists call the clear bearish trend a seasonal correction and associate it with the end of the year and the desire of investors to fix profits after such an impressive leap up. Recall that the BTC/USD pair was never able to overcome the $20,000 mark. And analysts estimated that it will be able to gain a foothold above this iconic level by the end of December, as 30% probability. The likelihood of its fall to the $15,000-15,700 zone is estimated at the same 30%.
In the meantime, the bears were able to lower quotations to $17,600, and they did it twice: on December 09 and 11. And also twice, at the time of these failures, buyers came to the rescue of bitcoin. However, they did not manage to radically reverse the trend, and as of Friday evening, December 11, bitcoin is trading in the zone of a strong support/resistance level of $18,000.
It should be noted that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index declined very slightly in seven days, from 92 to 89, still signaling the pair BTC/USD is strongly overbought, which could portend an even deeper correction.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The dollar is weakening. It has conceded more than 550 points to the European currency in the last month and a half alone. Finally, the pair moved to a sideways movement in the range of 1.2060-1.2165 last week. And although most oscillators (75%) and trend indicators (95%) are still green on D1, the market is waiting for a downward correction.
If you look at the statistics of a number of leading UK brokers, about 65% of their traders hold short positions. 55% of analysts agree with them as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1, predicting a decline of the pair to the zone 1.1965-1.2010. Both a sharp drop in demand for risky assets and a "hard" Brexit can push it south.
However, given the cautious optimism of the ECB regarding the recovery of the European economy, the improvement of the epidemiological situation in the EU countries and the general weakness of the dollar, many experts believe that the pair will again move north after the correction, to the highs of the 1st quarter of 2018 in the zone of 1.2400-1.2565. Apart from analysts, the possibility of such a scenario is also confirmed by the readings of graphical analysis. And the resistance here is likely to be the round levels 1.2200 and 1.2300.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth paying attention to the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as well as on the US consumer market on Wednesday 16 December. But the most interesting events await us on Thursday 17 December, when, in addition to the US Fed's interest rate decision, the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Markets Committee of the Fed will be published and a press conference of the leadership of this organization will take place.

- GBP/USD. We will have a lot of macro-statistics regarding the UK in the coming week. Data on the labor market of this country will be released on Tuesday, December 15, consumer prices and business activity in the services sector (Markit) will be published the next day, and a meeting of the Bank of England will be held on Thursday, December 17, where decisions will be taken both on the interest rate and on the planned volume of asset purchases. However, all these events pale in front of the threat of a "hard" Brexit. It is precisely what happens at the negotiating table between the UK and the EU that will decide the fate of the pound.
A message should be issued on the state of the negotiation process, either its termination or continuation, on Sunday, December 13. The softest (and most realistic) option would be to extend the current conditions of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, although the downward trend of the pair would have continued, it would have been possible to avoid a catastrophic collapse of the British currency. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3100, then 1.3000 and 1.2850.
The second option is the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements and prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall to the values of mid-May 2020 in the area of 1.2075 or even to the March low at 1.1420.
There is, of course, a third, most improbable, option in which the EU suddenly gives up its positions and completely yields to the British demands. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350. Although, we repeat, this outcome is rather from the field of fiction;

- USD/JPY. The yen expects that the market's appetite for risk investments will finally recoil, and it will again turn its attention to the haven currencies. But that's what the dollar awaits too. The chance for the Japanese currency may be a "hard" Brexit, as a result of which investors will start fleeing from the euro and the pound. But what "safe haven" they will give preference to, the dollar or the yen, is another question.
85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators are still painted red, waiting for a further fall of the pair within the downward medium-term channel, the beginning of which was at the end of March. Supports are 103.65 and 103.15.
But the average forecast of experts is very different from the indicators. 90% of them, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, prefer the dollar and expect that the pair will first rise to the upper boundary of this channel in the area of 104.60, and then, breaking through it, the resistance of 105.00 will be tested. Although, it is entirely possible that before the onset of the new year, 2021, neither bulls nor bears will make sharp movements, and the pair will continue its sideways movement, consolidating in the 104.00 zone;
(https://i.imgur.com/isFrGgJ.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. So, a correction or a repeat of the collapse of the late 2017-2018? The question is still open.
Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021.  “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.
But Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz is less optimistic. In his opinion, bitcoin will certainly not return to zero, but may fall to the $14,000 mark. Therefore, although the losses of investors will not reach 80-90%, they may well be about 30-40%.
The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", on average expect even greater growth, to $32,056. As for the lower bar, according to the average forecast, it is at $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decline to $12,000.
Cindicator's “hybrid intelligence”, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, predicts similar values, only in a narrower range. According to its calculations, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222 and will not fall below $16,000. At the same time, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market in 2021 with a probability of 80% will surpass the 2018 record of $828 billion.
In addition to institutional investors, additional serious support for the crypto market in 2021 should be provided by countries with troubled economies and those under sanctions. As of now, the SWIFT International Banking System, together with the Financial Crimes Agency (FinCEN) and the Financial Anti-Money Laundering Development Group (FATF), control each international transaction in dollars. Because of this, the countries that have come under the sanctions are deprived of the opportunity for international trade and are literally forced to turn to cryptocurrencies. So, for example, Venezuela, which at first paid in gold, has now switched to settlements for imports with Turkey and Iran in bitcoins. At least this is evidenced by anonymous sources from the Central Bank of this country.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 16, 2020, 04:50:33 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/yhdfLUg.jpg)

- The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September. According to analysts, such an increase in the number of retail cryptocurrency users clearly indicates the massive adoption of bitcoin.

- Also, the “population” of bitcoin whales grew significantly in 2020 and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month. These data were shared by Philip Gradwell, a senior economist at Chainalysis analytics company. Since the beginning of the year, the category “1000 BTC and more” has grown by 302 new wallets. The balances at the respective addresses have increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.

- Millennials, Newbie trader people who were born at the turn of the millennium, believe in bitcoin and see it as an asset preparing to replace fiat money. According to Zach Prince, CEO of cryptocurrency startup BlockFi, they will be the ones who will change the industry and popularize cryptocurrencies. “However, I do not think that the dollar or the euro will completely disappear, but cryptocurrencies have every chance to become their full replacement,” he said.
Speaking at the BlockShow conference, Prince also called promising ways to develop the cryptocurrency industry. According to him, decentralized finance should try to establish communication with regulators, but not make full concessions. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.

- Despite the rise in the price and popularity of bitcoin over the past few months, it is still far from widespread attention.  A poll conducted by Opinium and AltFi asked 2,000 UK adults how the COVID-19 pandemic has affected their financial situation. The majority said they turned to digital investment having refrained from investing in physical assets. However, only 10% of this sample (or 200 people) specified that they bought cryptocurrencies.
Despite the fact that this percentage is relatively small, the results of 2020 can be regarded as an undeniable improvement: the figure was half as low, 5.3%, a year ago.

- US billionaire Ray Dalio admitted that the criticism of cryptocurrencies that had been heard from him earlier was unfounded. "Bitcoin is well suited for portfolio diversification," said the billionaire. “I would advise having cryptocurrencies among the assets, at least as an experiment. When it comes to comparing bitcoin to gold, I prefer to keep those assets that are important to the global economic system." Earlier, Dalio said that bitcoin can complement gold thanks to an expanded list of options that are available to cryptocurrency investors. A coin backed by the precious metal could be the best investment on the market, he said.

- European electricity supplier CEZ Group has uncovered the largest theft in its history. Together with the police, the company's specialists discovered equipment for the extraction of cryptocurrencies illegally connected to the power grids in one of the outbuildings in the Bulgarian village of Kherakovo. The inspection began due to the abnormal high consumption of electricity in the area. As a result of searches, law enforcement officers seized more than 1,000 mining units. Preliminary estimates suggest the stolen electricity was equivalent to a monthly consumption of 4,250 families.

- Bestselling Rich Dad Poor Dad author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has reiterated his call to buy bitcoin before it surpasses $20,000. He is convinced that the cryptocurrency will continue to grow to $50,000 next year amid the influx of money from institutions. The entrepreneur says that “America is in trouble” and preclude the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin and entrepreneurs.

- The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin says that he sold part of the reserves of the first cryptocurrency back in 2013. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes. This admission was accompanied by Buterin's call not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets.

- According to analysts of financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In early December, JPMorgan Payments Manager Takis Georgakopoulos said the bank has become more loyal to bitcoin and is ready to contribute to the development of the cryptocurrency industry.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 18, 2020, 01:19:28 PM
Stock Trading Is Now Available on Fix, Pro and Zero Accounts


The line of  the brokerage company NordFX trading accounts was supplemented by the new Stocks account last December, intended for transactions involving the shares of the world's largest companies. Due to favorable trading conditions, this account has gained considerable popularity over the past time, and therefore it has been decided to include CFD trading of shares in the list of trading instruments on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts.

(https://i.imgur.com/BVYpdKb.jpg)

Now the company's clients do not need to open a separate account for these operations, since the trading terms and contract specifications on the Fix, Pro and Zero accounts will be exactly the same as they were on the Stocks account.

Trading on the Stocks account will be discontinued. At the same time, previously opened trade orders remain in effect until the client decides to complete these transactions.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 20, 2020, 07:50:18 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 21 - 25, 2020

 
First, a review of last week’s events:
 
- EUR/USD. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, the most popular strategy in the market after “buy shares” is “sell the dollar”. Speculative short positions in this currency have risen to a two-year high. The USD index (DXY) has fallen below 90, while it was at 102.82 on March 15, 2020. As for the retreat of the dollar in recent days, it is taking place against the background of the discussion in the US Congress of an additional package of fiscal stimuli. After all, every new dollar poured into the country's economy will lead to a decrease in its purchasing power.
The Federal Reserve meeting held on Thursday, December 17 had virtually no effect on market sentiment. The interest rate remained at the same level, and, one might say, a blissful pre-Christmas mood prevailed at the press conference: nothing new was said about the prospects for further quantitative easing and no worries about the current state of the economy were voiced. Although, perhaps, such passivity was caused not only by Christmas, but also by the change of the US President. The new owner has not yet settled in the White House. And the old one is already a duck lame on both legs.
True, thanks to the hopes of investors for the future growth of the S&P500 and for a positive outcome of the Brexit negotiations, the EUR/USD pair still continued its movement northward, adding about 140 points in a week. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2250;

- GBP/USD. With the weakening USD and hopes that the Brexit talks will succeed at the last moment, the pair continues to push higher. At the week's high, December 17, it reached 1.3625, showing a gain of as much as 400 points. However, then a correction followed, and it completed the five-day period just below the level of 1.3500.
Belief in the deal is fueled by media reports that the fishing problem in British waters remains the last hurdle. The markets were encouraged by the statements of the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, who said that there is a "narrow path" to the agreement, as well as European Commissioner for Internal Trade Michel Barnier, who confirmed that "the possibility of a trade agreement remains."
Britain also seems to agree to the deal, but, as it was stated, "not at the cost of sovereignty, and control should include the sea as well." Prime Minister Boris Johnson has threatened to keep European fishermen out of British waters for at least eight years if his three years quota fishing proposal is not accepted.
In general, Hamlet's question “To be or not to be?”, which has been sounding for 420 years, as applied to Brexit, is still open;

- USD/JPY. The yen is stable, US Treasuries remain in the same trading range, the dollar is weakening, the USD (DXY) index is falling. All this allows the USD/JPY pair to continue its smooth descent within the downstream medium-term channel, which began at the end of last March. On Thursday December 17, it reached the midline of this channel, fixing a weekly low at 102.85. The last point in the five-day period was set at 103.30;

- cryptocurrencies. What has been expected from bitcoin for three whole years has come true. It not only renewed the all-time high, not only broke through the $20,000 level, but also soared in a short period from December 12 to 17 from $18,000 to $23,620, adding more than 30%.
If we compare the rallies in December 2017 and December 2020, the main difference between them, according to many experts, is that in the first case, the main driving force was retail investors, but now it is institutional. According to the analytical company Chainalysis, the "population" of bitcoin whales (1000 BTC and more) has been expanded with 302 new wallets since the beginning of the year and peaked at 2274 at the end of last month, and balances at the corresponding addresses increased by 1.4 million BTC during this time.
To be fair, it should be noted that the number of retail users is also growing. The number of bitcoin addresses with a non-zero balance has approached the mark of 33 million, updating the historical maximum, according to the data of the analytical service Glassnode. The number of wallets with a balance of more than 1 BTC is also steadily growing. The indicator has set a new record at 827,105 recently, recovering from a slight recession at the end of September.   
Of course, we have written about this many times, the coronavirus pandemic contributed to the popularization of bitcoin. However, it is probably early to talk about the mass acceptance of cryptocurrencies by the population. So, in a survey conducted by Opinium and AltFi among UK residents, only 10% said they bought a cryptocurrency. And although the results of 2020 can be viewed as an undoubted improvement - a year ago the figure was half as much, 5.3% - it is still a very small percentage, which leaves significant potential for growth in the crypto market, the total capitalization of which reached $670 billion on December 17.
It should be noted that despite the fact that BTC/USD quotes have already by far exceeded the high of 2017, the capitalization has not reached its record value of $830 billion, recorded on 07 January 2018. That is, the rise in the value of bitcoin is fueled by significantly smaller amounts of fiat than before, which may indicate the pair is strongly overbought. This is evidenced by the values of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which rose again in seven days from 89 to 95 and is very close to the maximum value of 100 points. But while waiting for a correction, one should take into account that the end of the year is now, the Christmas holidays are coming, and the most unexpected things can happen on the thin market - from zero volatility to new spikes to the north;


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Next week on Thursday, December 24, Forex trading will end at 17:00 CET, and there will be no trading at all on December 25, Christmas. (please visit the NordFX website, the Company News section for details on the trading schedule during the Christmas and New Year holidays in the currency and cryptocurrency markets, as well as on CFD contracts).
The end of the year is a period when big players close their positions, sum up and go on vacation. But it is at this point of low liquidity in the market, as already mentioned above, that traders need to be prepared for sudden surprises. And it is not necessary that they will be as pleasant as gifts from Santa Claus. The main surprise may be the agreement between the EU and the UK on the Brexit terms (or lack thereof). 
At the time of this writing, 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are green. Also, 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look up. However, the remaining 25% signals that the pair is overbought, and a correction is possible.
Graphical analysis on H4 predicts the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.2175-1.2300, and D1 indicates the possibility of its growth to the height of 1.2355. 80% of experts support this development. The remaining 20% expect the pair to decline to support 1.2100, and in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 65%. Closest supports are at 1.2055 and 1.1900 levels.
(https://i.imgur.com/FI1whWx.jpg)

- GBP/USD. As we wrote last week, there are three possible options regarding Brexit.
1 - neutral soft. It is a decision to extend the current terms of the transition period for another six months or a year in order to gradually move to rules similar to the basic rules of the World Trade Organization. In this case, a catastrophic collapse of the pound would be avoided, although the pair would go south. The nearest support level in this case is 1.3275, then 1.3100, 1.3000 and 1.2850.
2 - the “hardest” Brexit, without any agreements or prolongations, which will lead the pair to fall first to the 1.2700 horizon, and over time, possibly to the lows of May 2020. in the area of 1.2075-1.2160.
3 - the conclusion of a full-scale deal between the EU and the UK. In this case, we will see a rise of the pound first to the height of 1.3500, and then perhaps to the highs of 2018 in the area of 1.4350.
We will know soon which of these options will be chosen;

- USD/JPY. 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red, expecting further decline in the pair within the descending medium-term channel. As for analysts, they, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, they consider most likely the pair to move in the trading range 102.70-104.00, that is, between the central and upper boundaries of the designated channel;

- cryptocurrencies. So, is it worth waiting for a repeat of the "crypto winter" of late 2017 - 2018? Or, after a slight correction, the BTC/USD pair will again rush to new heights?
Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits that his outlook sounds extremely optimistic and even somewhat amusing for some investors. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
According to analysts from the financial conglomerate JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires that American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin.
As JPMorgan lead strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou noted, the recent $100 million investment by Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Company marks another milestone in the adoption of the first cryptocurrency by such organizations. At the same time, the analyst admits that it is quite difficult for such traditional investors to invest in cryptocurrency, since there are still regulatory requirements for the choice of investment assets in terms of risks and fulfillment of obligations. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.
In general, the topic of the attitude of government regulators to cryptocurrencies is one of the key factors for the development of this market. This issue has been actively discussed at the recent BlockShow conference. The speakers said that although decentralized finance needs to communicate with regulators, it cannot be full concessions to them. If we introduce complete regulation of the market, then it will hardly differ from fiat.
Now about the prospects of the BTC/USD pair for the next few weeks. According to the average forecast, the probability of its rise to $25,000-26,000 is estimated at 30%, above $30,000 - 10%. As for the fall, the probability that the pair will decrease to the $18.500-20,000 zone is 20%.
As for altcoins, those who at this stage are wary of investing in bitcoin may pay attention to ethereum. If BTC has already exceeded its 2017 high by 16%, then ETH is still to grow from its current values in the region of $670 to its all-time high of $1,420. And this despite the fact that this main altcoin showed better dynamics than bitcoin this year: it has added 640% from the March low against 465% for BTC.       
In addition, altcoin blockchain No.1 has recently been updated. Ethereum 2.0 has made the cryptocurrency safer, more efficient, scalable and, hopefully, potentially more profitable.
And here it is necessary to recall the recent warning of the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin, who urged not to get into debt or take out loans to buy any digital assets, be it bitcoin, ethereum or any other coins. He said he had “only a few thousand dollars of net equity” before Ethereum was created. “However, I sold half of my bitcoins to be sure I would not break up if the rate fell to zero,” he writes.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 23, 2020, 04:23:25 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/RPk195Z.jpg)

- Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021
Bitcoin's capitalization currently stands at approximately $441 billion. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm next year.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.

- Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, expressed an opposite view. In his opinion, the December rise does not mean that the market is "overheated", and a large-scale collapse awaits us. “We are at the very beginning of the period of massive entry of investors into the crypto sphere. This phase of the industry's development is qualitatively different from the rise and fall phases of 2017 and 2018. If demand continues to rise from current levels, and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more."
At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst summed up.

- 190 computers were stolen from the NATO military airbase in Emari (Estonia), which were illegally used to extract cryptocurrency. The Estonian Ministry of Defense reported that mining on the territory of the base was carried out by a certain employee who had access to classified documents. He worked for NATO for 14 years, after which he quit and decided to take the equipment with him. He took out the first computers from the base back in 2015, providing documents on their write-off. The remaining several dozen devices on the territory of Emari were networked and used for mining. In total, this "specialist" was able to mine cryptocurrencies worth 30,000 euros. The Ministry of Defense clarified that about 60% of these earnings would have gone to pay for electricity, but the attacker was using state resources.

- According to the analytical service Glassnode, the number of addresses with cryptocurrency worth more than $1,000,000 has reached 66,500. The increase in the second decade of December alone was about 150%. Analysts noted that some miners have not withdrawn funds from their wallets since the time when one pizza cost several hundred bitcoins. Now they have become dollar millionaires.

- Tesla and SpaceX founder Elon Musk once again spoke on Twitter regarding cryptocurrencies. There, he again confessed his love for Dogecoin and posted a frivolous picture, comparing bitcoin to fiat money and considering it "the same crap."
Recall that in 2019, Musk became the winner of a comic April Fools' poll, in which users were asked to vote for the most suitable candidate for the position of Dogecoin CEO. And last July, Musk spoke on Twitter about the prospect of using Dogecoin technology as a global financial system. After his tweet, the price of the token went up 17%.

- The legendary bitcoin meme HODL is seven years old. It was first used by a user under the nickname GameKyuubi in his post on the BitcoinTalk forum, who later became known as Mr.HODL. On December 18, 2013, being a little drunk by his own admission, he wrote that as a bad trader he prefers to “hodl” so as not to incur financial losses.
“I typed the title twice because I made a mistake the first time. Still a mistake. A girlfriend is stuck in a OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) bar, bitcoin is falling, so why do I hold? I'll tell you why. Because I'm a bad trader and I know it. Yes, of course, you good traders can see the highs and lows and playfully make a million dollars,” GameKyuubi wrote at the time.
On that day Bitcoin fell in price by almost 40%, GameKyuubi tried to simultaneously talk to his girlfriend and trade bitcoin through a heavily lagging app. After several failed attempts, he went to his room and started drinking.
Hodl, Hodler, is an Internet meme, a slang name for those who buy cryptocurrencies and hold them (do not sell) regardless of the market situation. For the first time, this variant of the spelling appeared as a typo in the word holding.
 
- MicroStrategy, a mobile software company, announced the completion of the last stage of the allocation of reserve assets, during which it invested $650 million raised from investors into 29.646 BTC at an average of $21.925 per coin.
It now owns almost 70,470 bitcoins in total, having spent $1.125 billion at an average price of $15.964 per bitcoin.
The $650 million raised in December was raised through the sale of convertible bonds with a maturity of five years. “The purchase of additional coins confirms our confidence in bitcoin as the most widely used cryptocurrency and a reliable store of value,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.

- Mill Hill Books has released a 340-page book, Kicking the Hornet's Nest, containing all emails, forum posts, and other entries by the anonymous bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. All entries are collected in chronological order and, according to the publishers, have been published "with almost no editorial comment." The printed version of the edition sells for $29, and it can also be purchased on Amazon.

- Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."
At the same time, Minerd noted that buying bitcoin above $20,000 seems to him "a little more problematic." His company began investing in bitcoin at a rate of about $10,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 25, 2020, 08:15:38 AM
]Happy New Year, 2021!

(https://i.imgur.com/c54hO8T.jpg)

Dear clients and partners! We extend our warmest congratulations on the upcoming holidays.

The outgoing 2020 turned out to be not the easiest one for most of us, requiring resilience, a lot of effort and energy. It has been a difficult time, but we are confident that together we can overcome any difficulties.

Let the coming year be the year of new joint victories and achievements. Let all adversity and troubles remain behind us, and only prosperity and success lie ahead.

Let all your hopes and dreams come true in the new year. We wish you and all your loved ones good health, prosperity, endless joyful smiles, and optimism!

Happy New Year!
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 27, 2020, 11:44:06 AM
Forecast 2021: Is Bitcoin Worth Investing In?

 
Is it the "gold of the XXI century" or a soap bubble about to burst? We have repeatedly discussed the advantages and disadvantages of bitcoin over the past year,  and analyzed the reasons for its ups and downs. Therefore, we decided to cite only the opinions of experts regarding the prospects for the main cryptocurrency in this review.
You may decide to be patient and invest in bitcoin for a long-term profitability. Or, on the contrary, you do not want to take risks and prefer to forget this word altogether. In general, the decision to buy, sell bitcoin or simply do nothing is always yours.
(https://i.imgur.com/nezixWX.jpg)


Optimists' predictions: Only to the North!

1. Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki is convinced that cryptocurrency will continue to rise to $50,000 next year amid further influx of institutional money. The entrepreneur, having said that “America is in trouble”, precludes the “death” of the US dollar and a “bright future” for gold, silver, bitcoin.
“Bitcoin's rise has outpaced gold and silver,” he wrote. - What does it mean? This means that you need to buy as much bitcoin and precious metal as you can and don't put it off. The train is already leaving. The dollar is dying. When the dollar falls, the price doesn't matter anymore. What matters is how much gold, silver and bitcoins you have.”

2. According to analysts at the JPMorgan Chase banking holding, bitcoin outperforms gold as an alternative currency and has a significantly better chance of continued growth. According to their report, the capitalization of the crypto market is not large enough yet. JPMorgan estimates that the physical gold market, including ETF backed by it, is $2.6 trillion. Bitcoin needs to hit the $130,000 mark to catch up with the precious metal in this respect.
According to JPMorgan Chase, institutional investors can invest up to $600 billion in the first cryptocurrency in the coming years. This requires American, European and Japanese insurance companies and pension funds to invest only 1% of their assets in bitcoin. However, at the moment there are still regulatory requirements for the selection of investment assets in terms of risks and performance of obligations for such traditional investors. This can limit the amount of funds available for buying BTC.

3. The well-known Dutch cryptanalyst PlanB, who developed the popular BTC stock-to-flow valuation model, believes that the price of the reference cryptocurrency may rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021, and maybe up to $300,000. PlanB admits his forecast sounds extremely optimistic. However, the rise in the price of bitcoin in the past allows him to make such predictions.
The expert notes that during periods of market corrections, the algorithms of bitcoin whales pick up hundreds of portions of 0.01 BTC from "weak hands". Later these coins “disappear” in “deep” cold vaults. This leads to a supply shock and triggers a bull market.

4. Scott Minerd, investment director of Guggenheim Investments, considers bitcoin to be a grossly undervalued asset, even at current price levels of around $23,000. “Our fundamental work shows that bitcoin should be worth about $400,000,” he said in a conversation with Bloomberg TV.
Analysts at Guggenheim Investments came to this conclusion based on two factors: the limited emission of bitcoin and its value relative to gold. There are many common characteristics that cryptocurrency shares with the precious metal, Minerd said, but bitcoin, unlike gold, "has extraordinary value in the context of transactions."

5. Popular analyst and founder of Quantum Economics Mati Greenspan believes that “we are at the very beginning of a period of mass investor entry into the cryptosphere. If demand continues to rise and supply is constrained, then there is a possibility that we will see growth of 250% or more." At the same time, Mati Greenspan excludes a scenario in which BTC will soar to $400,000. “The rally will certainly continue, but there is no need to talk about any astronomical figures yet,” the analyst sums up. He believes that, unlike in 2017, the market is now controlled not by speculators but by corporations and large investors interested in its stability. The entry of these large players leads to the fact that volatility will weaken, and this area will become more attractive.

6. Bloomberg experts believe that there is no reason for a change in the direction of bitcoin's movement now, and its cost may increase to $50,000 in 2021.  “The dollar is gradually losing its position, ducking other fiat currencies,” writes this authoritative agency, “All this is noticed by investors who are forced to switch to alternative assets.” Bitcoin has significantly more support now, which minimizes the likelihood of a pullback. Open interest in the CME bitcoin futures market has exceeded $1 billion for the first time in history, which also speaks of growing support from investors.
Looking into the longer term, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone has suggested that within 5 years the price of the main cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000.

7. A similar point of view is followed by the American billionaire Paul Tudor Jones, head of Tudor Investment Corporation, who said that “cryptocurrencies are facing a crazy flight on a rocket with ascents and descents along the way.” “In 20 years, bitcoin will be significantly higher than the point where it is now. From here, the road for it lies north,” Yahoo! Finance quoted him.

8. The report of the fintech company Cindicator is of great interest. This is due to the fact that the figures presented in it are not the opinion of individual specialists, but the average results of the survey of more than 156,000 participants of the crypto market, according to which bitcoin next year will rise to $29,569. The respondents with the most accurate forecasts, the so-called "superforcasters", expect even greater growth on average, to $32,056.
According to the calculations of the “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, which uses machine learning algorithms to process data from a team of analysts, the BTC rate next year will not exceed $25,222.

9. According to Mike Novogratz, head of the Galaxy Digital crypto trading bank, everyone should invest 2-3% of their funds in bitcoin. “After that, it is enough to wait a little time, and you will be surprised, but cryptocurrencies will cost significantly more. If you wait for five years, the assets will multiply several times,” he wrote.

10. According to experts of Stack Funds, bitcoin is ready to rise to a new high of $86,000.

11. The Director General of Global Macro Investor Raoul Pal expects that even conservative institutional investors, who usually prefer precious metals, will start investing in bitcoin next year. Therefore, Pal made a bold assumption that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could reach $250,000 in a year and placed an order for the sale of all the gold he had in order to invest in BTC and ETH in the ratio 80 to 20.

12. Even more inspiring forecast was given by Gemini crypto exchange founder Tyler Winklevoss, one of the twin brothers who are called the first cryptocurrency billionaires. He said on CNBC that the value of bitcoin could exceed the $500,000 mark.
"The question isn't whether bitcoin will cost $500,000 or not, the question is how quickly it will happen. In fact, even this assessment seems to me very conservative - the game has not really even started," said Tyler's brother Cameron Winklevoss.

13. A similar figure is also called by a member of the Board of Directors of the Bitcoin Foundation Bobby Lee, according to whom the price of the main coin can reach $500,000 by the year 2028.

14. According to experts from one of the shareholders of Tesla, the ARK Invest fund, the capitalization of bitcoin may exceed $5 trillion. This will take the coin up to 10 years, but massive investments can start earlier. This figure could reach $1 trillion in the next 5 years, after which growth will occur at a faster rate.

15. A forecast was presented by Tom Fitzpatrick, Managing Director of one of the largest banks in the world, Citibank. According to him, thanks to consolidation in the status of digital gold, the rate of the first cryptocurrency can reach $318,000 by the end of 2021.
In his new report, Bitcoin: Gold for the 21st Century, Fitzpatrick writes: "Bitcoin moved in the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis of 2008, when new changes in the monetary regime took place and we dropped to zero interest rates." And further he concludes that currently, financial stimulus measures against the background of the coronavirus pandemic have led to the formation of conditions similar to the 1970s, when the dollar inflation led to the increased demand for gold.

16. Popular TV presenter and Wall-Street veteran Max Kaiser believes that at current levels, bitcoin futures traders are suppressing the price of BTC to give institutional players a chance to "load the boat." However, once the asset reaches the $28,000 mark (the intermediate benchmark set by Kaiser), the number of coins for sale will go zero, and thanks to the deficit, their price will burst up to the cosmic heights.
“For the poor of this world, the current price and availability of BTC,” says Kaiser, “is the only opportunity in life to purchase non-forfeitable hard money before the price of it rises to 40-80 times, and prices will soar to the level of golden parity at around $400,000.”
“The demand for bitcoin is growing almost exponentially,” he says, “while its supply is mathematically fixed at 900 coins per day. And in 2024, the supply will be halved to 450 BTC per day. That's why I think people simply won't have the opportunity to buy coins, since the price can soar even to $1,000,000 per BTC. Meanwhile, Gen Z, who bought a lot of bitcoins when they were under $100, will become the new global power elite. The world order is about to change...”


Pessimists' Predictions: A Fly in the Ointment

1. Despite the optimism in general, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that bitcoin instability can be expected in the near future. Its price in 2021 will certainly not return to zero, but could fall to the $14,000mark, or even $12,000. Although a correction to such levels is unlikely, investors need to be prepared for losses of 30-40%.

2. According to the average forecast of fintech company Cindicator, the lower bar of the trading range for the BTC/USD pair in 2021 will be at the level of $15,000. “Superforcasters” are less optimistic and expect a decrease to $12,000, and according to the calculations of “Hybrid Intelligence” Cindicator, the bitcoin rate will not go down next year below $16,000.

3. Matt Maley, strategist at financial services firm Miller Tabak, believes the cryptocurrency market will face a major setback next year. According to him, the main coin may fall in price by about 25-30 percent in the first months of 2021. According to Maley, the market is overheated due to large-scale investments, which is why corrections by one or several thousand dollars may become a norm.
“I consider cryptocurrencies to be a promising asset, but the minimum correction size next year will be 10%. At the same time, the fall may be at the level of 30% or even more. Therefore, it is worth being prudent before large-scale investments,” the specialist warns.



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 29, 2020, 02:48:38 PM
Support and Resistance Levels: Types, Methods of Construction, Usage Cases


Technical analysis in the Forex market provides a wide range of opportunities to study and predict prices. The number of instruments that are capable of solving the tasks set by the trader is hundreds. If the indicators are justifiably amenable to criticism for signal lagging, the levels of support and resistance find their admirers even among  people most skeptical towards technical analysis. This is not surprising. Forex levels are a benchmark that all traders, without exception, pay attention to.

Levels are abnormal zones on the price chart, near which there are sharp changes in the dynamics of quotations. Thus, when the price approaches the levels, there is a noticeable response: bounces, reversals, breakouts, acceleration or deceleration of quotes . Since this happens with enviable consistency, the trader has the opportunity to create trading strategies based on such levels. Trading with their help becomes active, impulsive and allows you to fix a good profit in a short time frame.

The Reason Why Markup is Effective

Trading in the financial markets is carried out using a huge number of instruments. However, there are only two key areas in the analysis - technical and fundamental. Textbooks on them are written and regularly published in all languages of the world. This creates a unified learning base for all traders and investors. Therefore, guided by a similar algorithm of actions, the vast majority of traders will, like you, see Forex levels and push quotes in their direction.

In addition to the same algorithm of actions, do not forget about the convenience of calculations. For example, when a trader chooses a place to place Stop Loss , it is easier for them to focus on round levels. This is convenient, because in the heat of active trading there is no time for the perfect calculation of points - everything is rounded one way or another.

The third argument is monetary policy. Each head of the Central Bank and the government sets a price corridor, which is the basis of the budget. Out-of-bounds always result in the intervention of the regulator.

Types of Levels and Their Differences

There are many ways to calculate levels, and as a result, their types. If we generalize them conditionally, we can distinguish the following main groups: horizontal, sloping, dynamic. The key difference between them is in the way they are built, and the number of elements required for this.

Ways to Build Horizontal Levels

To do the markup, your trading platform must have drawing tools. Broker NordFX offers its clients to use the world's most popular platform - MetaTrader 4 (MT4). Its graphical toolkit, among other things, includes horizontal lines.

Resistance and support are built on historical points where rebounds have occurred more than once in the past. The support level is drawn through local lows, and the resistance level is drawn through local highs.

For many, the debatable question is at what prices to draw the line. There is no basic difference. The level is marked both by the body of the candle and by its shadow. There is a concept of a zone, so a deviation of several points is the norm. Moreover, the higher the timeframe, the wider this zone will be.

An example of how horizontal Forex levels are marked in Fig. 1:
(https://i.imgur.com/KN1Rw8K.jpg)

Sloping levels

These levels are no different from the previous ones, as far as their impact on price is concerned. The main difference is the angle of the lines. They are drawn at local lows/highs and completely depend on the direction of the trend. The main rule when applying is that the price should bounce. Two points are enough to draw this level. This is a simple geometric rule for drawing line segments.

In literature, they are also called the trend line. If you draw such lines parallel to each other, you can identify price channels. An example of one of them can be seen below in Fig. 2:
(https://i.imgur.com/zwpvssd.jpg)

They are used for only one purpose - to find the entry point. It is difficult to set price targets according to them. By the way, when working with sloping levels, the extremes should be consistent, namely, above each other (for an upward market) or below (for a downward one).

Dynamic

In the classical understanding, levels are manual markup. However, progress has gone far from the textbooks of the 80s and 90s of the last century. In addition to markup, indicator techniques are gaining popularity: Moving Average, Envelopes, Donchian Channel, Bollinger Bands.

Their main feature is that they are volatile and are rearranged following the price. This is both their strength and weakness.

The principles of building the horizontal and dynamic level are different, but the properties and principles of use are the same. As an example (Fig. 3), we propose to study the most famous of them, Moving Average, and working it out as a level:
(https://i.imgur.com/yNnVl8I.jpg)

The Difference Between Support and Resistance

Beginners sometimes find it difficult to clearly define what support is, and mistakenly call it resistance, and vice versa. They have the same properties in terms of trade practice. Quotes bounce off them, and accelerate sharply after the breakout. However, the difference still exists: it is the position of the price relative to the level.

Support is the level that the price relies on during its movement. It connects important lows and occurs when traders can no longer, or do not want to sell this financial instrument at lower prices. Resistance, on the other hand, is a level that connects important highs (tops) of the market and stands in the way of growth, preventing the price from going up.

In both cases, it is important in what trend the markup is considered. They can change places during a breakout. An example of how support turns into resistance is shown below (Figure 4):
(https://i.imgur.com/7lRMYdD.jpg)

How to Build Forex Support and Resistance Levels

You can build levels on charts of any timeframe in different ways. Professionals often and quickly do this manually using the auxiliary charting tools built into the MT4 terminal. However, it is difficult for beginners to find extremes. To simplify their detection, auxiliary indicators such as, for example, Fractals or ZigZag are used, which automatically highlight local lows/highs.

Pivot, Murray, Fibonacci formulas are also used to calculate support and resistance levels. They are implemented as separate user indicators. It should be noted that there are many other indicators that apply all types of markup without your involvement. Many of them are already integrated into MetaTrader 4, making market analysis much easier.

How Levels Are Used in a Trading Strategy

Patterns in price movements near support or resistance make it possible to use them for different purposes. One of the most important purposes in developing a trading strategy is the signal function. Trading in this case occurs both on a rebound from the level, and on its breakdown. There is also a mixed type of trading, which includes other signals for opening or closing positions as well.

The ways of trading at levels can be very different. Conservative trading , advocated by many textbook authors, involves working in the direction of the trend, while aggressive trading involves opening positions in both directions or against the trend. Each technique has a right to exist, but one should consider how strong the level is. The probability of a breakout of a strong level is extremely low, so rebounds are practiced in this case. Weak levels , which have only a couple of touches, are overcome by the price like a knife in butter. Therefore, the probability of a breakdown of a weak level is quite high. Although false breakouts often occur on Forex - cases when the price seems to have already overcome the support or resistance zone, but instead of going further, it turns back and returns to its previous positions.

At moments when the strength of traders playing to raise and lower the price is roughly equal, there can be price consolidation. If you see that the price is being squeezed like a spring - consolidation is there for you. And we can expect that at some point this spring will be open, which will lead to the appearance of a sharp impulse in the change in quotes and an increase in volatility.

Setting Stop Loss and Take Profit

According to many traders, a trading strategy without using Stop Loss is a time bomb. Beginners find it difficult to choose where to place it on the chart, because there is a possibility that the price will accidentally hook it. And it is very disappointing to see how your order closes with a loss by Stop Loss, after which the price will reverse and go in a direction that is profitable for you. That is why it is customary to place Stop Loss beyond the nearest level at a distance of several points from it. Recall that this distance depends on the timeframe you are working on. The higher the timeframe, the greater that distance must be. Thus, on the H4 time frame and above it is measured by dozens of points, forming not a line, but a support/resistance zone. It may also depend on the selected Forex currency pair, as well as the current volatility of the market.

Also, in addition to Stop Loss, levels are used to solve one more task - to determine a price target for profit fixing. Take Profit at the opened trade is placed on a similar principle, which is described above. However, it is put on the open order direction, rather than against it. And here, again, the concept of a zone must be taken into account, because just as the price can slip several points beyond the level (false breakout), the same few points will not reach it.

A huge number of trading strategies have been created at the support and resistance levels of Forex, the effectiveness of which is also influenced by a number of other factors. This is the accuracy of quotes, the size of spreads, the speed of execution of trades, etc. And here NordFX clients have an obvious advantage, since the trading conditions provided by this broker are among the best on the market.

Strengths and Weaknesses

Working on Forex support and resistance levels has a number of advantages and disadvantages. The cons of their use are as follows:
- The presence of false breakdowns;
- The presence of slippage (backlash), which turns a thin line into a support/resistance zone, the width of which depends on many factors: the currency pair being traded, the time frame and the current market situation. All this makes it difficult to set orders and to open and close a trading position.

The strengths of the levels are as follows:
- They have a lot of information about the dynamics of the market;
- They allow you to define the price corridor, the market entry and exit points;
- They are applicable on any timeframe and for any trading instrument;
- There are many charting tools and indicators that automatically determine these levels. Many of them are already integrated into the MT4 terminal;
- A huge number of ready-made solutions -­ scripts and robot advisors that allow you to conduct semi-automatic and fully automatic trading using data levels;
- Ability to include in any trading strategy;
- A large number of signals are generated on each timeframe.

Only practice can teach you how to use support and resistance levels effectively. And in order for you to gain the necessary experience without any financial costs, we recommend using a demo account of the NordFX brokerage company. It can be opened for free, and registration will take no more than a couple of minutes of your time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 30, 2020, 04:20:50 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/x1fuywL.jpg)

- Many experts agree that the value of bitcoin may reach $30,000 in the very near future. According to experts, the reason for this is the increased activity of "whales", who continue to make impressive investments in the cryptocurrency industry.
Experts from the analytical company CryptoQuant say that large investors are trying to keep funds in hardware wallets or distribute them between different platforms. The head of CryptoQuant, Ki-Newbie trader Joo, noted that this practice is being applied in the stock markets in anticipation of a major breakthrough. “I think that after the spurt [up to $ 30,000] there will be a pullback, the scale of which is very difficult to predict,” says Ki-Newbie trader Joo.
According to Vijay Ayyar, one of the top managers of the Luno crypto exchange, such a correction will be no more than 15%, after which bitcoin will face another growth.

- Investor Dennis Hartman, also known as the "king of assets", said in an interview with Bloomberg that bitcoin could become the so-called "millennial gold." According to the specialist, he does not support cryptocurrency assets, however, he considers them to be the main prospect for the future.
According to the financier, central banks around the world will increase their control over digital currencies. Therefore, even if bitcoin remains a fully decentralized unit, it will only be allowed to circulate locally when centralized.
Also, according to Hartmann, despite the prospects for the main cryptocurrency, it may even collapse to zero. This will happen against the background of the introduction of industry regulation in the world community. Due to a number of restrictions, investors will simply stop investing in bitcoin, which will first affect its capitalization, and later on the value.

- The founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC the strong position of bitcoin in the face of pressure from the current Trump team, which has not been able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency.
In addition, the head of Galaxy Digital expressed the hope that financial regulators under the leadership of President-elect Joe Biden will take a more loyal stance towards cryptocurrencies. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.

- The most secure strategy for investing in cryptocurrencies in 2021 will be the purchase and storage of a small portfolio of bitcoins and etheriums. This was stated by the head of the digital assets department of the Swiss online bank Swissquote Chris Thomas. In his opinion, these coins have long-term development potential.
In addition, a new form of digital money will appear in 2021, CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency). According to the expert, one of the first countries to introduce such a state digital currency will be China. In Europe, Sweden can become such a country due to the high acceptance rate of such assets.

- Bitcoin miners' income has increased by 185% since the May halving. And now, according to the estimates of the analytical service Glassnode, the total earnings of all miners in the world is about $1 million per hour.
The experts noted that the last time miners earned so much from mining bitcoin was in July 2019. Then the coin traded in the range from $9k to $11k. But at that point, the BTC mining award was twice the current one.

Almost 20% of Australians own digital currencies at the moment, according to a survey conducted by the Independent Reserve crypto exchange. At the same time, more than 90% of respondents said that they knew about the existence of bitcoin and other virtual coins. Bitcoin turned out to be much more popular than any of the altcoins, among which respondents noted ETH, EOS, XRP and LTС.
As in the past year, the largest share of cryptocurrency holders is among people aged 25 to 34.
 
- Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, speaking on CNBC, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine. “When we see that there are large institutional investors, each of whom buys more than 100% of the current issue of such assets, it pushes the price up,” explained Dan Morehead.
The market is nine weeks away from seeing bitcoin at $115,000, according to an estimate in December investment analytics from Pantera Capital.

- The world's largest crypto fund Grayscale published a report last Friday, which shows that the total amount of funds in the cryptocurrency under its control has reached $16.3 billion.
Analyst Kevin Rooke noted that this giant continued to buy up bitcoins even amid the recent consolidation of the crypto market. This clearly indicates that Grayscale is set for a long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez has attracted the attention of the community with his stance towards the first cryptocurrency. He called bitcoin the most stable investment in the outgoing, “volatile year” 2020. According to Suarez, Miami and South Florida should be “at the forefront of legislation” promoting digital assets and supported by innovation.
In his address, Suarez has also noted Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano saying Miami “is on track to become a bitcoin city.”

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin will rise from its current level to at least $40,000.  And although the expert does not rule out the likelihood of downward corrections, he is confident that "the bull market for bitcoin will continue for a long time."
In addition, Michael van de Poppe is convinced that a strong rally will be observed in the altcoin market sooner or later, in particular on Ethereum. According to the expert, the rise in prices in the altcoin market will begin after the first quarter of next year.
 
- Ethereum capitalization has exceeded $79 billion. The CEO of the crypto exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao drew attention to the fact that ETH had already surpassed such auto giants as General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion) in terms of capitalization.
In 2021, capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on Ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of Ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME).


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 04, 2021, 10:10:12 AM
Forecast 2021: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar

 
(https://i.imgur.com/xyldsBd.jpg)

If someone asks which currency pair is the most important and most liquid on Forex, the answer will follow immediately. Even a beginner will say: “Of course, EUR/USD”. There is even nothing to doubt about this: the trading volume for this pair reaches $1.1 trillion per day. These currencies represent two of the world's most powerful economies, and the US dollar is the first most important reserve currency. Most central banks continue to store large volumes of their gold and foreign exchange reserves (over 60%) in US dollars. The euro comes in second with over 22%.

It should be noted that the dollar is gradually losing its positions, according to Bloomberg, its peak (45.3%) in global payments was in April 2015. Now, following the SWIFT statistics, the euro has managed, although not by much, to bypass the dollar. In October 2020, 37.8% of money transfers served by this system were in the euro, while the share of the dollar was 37.64%. (The British pound took the third place with a huge margin with 6.92%).

Despite the weakening US currency, it is certainly too early to bury the dollar. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) announced in the summer of 2020 that about 50% of cross-border loans and international bonds are denominated in USD. Finally, about half of all trade invoices in the world are issued in dollars, even for non-US trade.

And let's not forget that market analysts evaluate the strength of different currencies by looking at the US Dollar Index (DXY). In fact, this is a basket of monetary units of six countries, the value of which is compared with USD. And the euro takes the lion's share of 57.6% in it (the remaining 5 account for only 42.4%).

All the above statistics indicate unambiguously that EUR/USD is number 1 among the major pairs on Forex. It is this pair that sets the main trends for other currencies. And that is why it is necessary for every trader to know and understand whatever happened to it, is happening and will happen.

 
A Bit of History

Surprisingly, despite its importance, the EUR/USD pair is quite Newbie trader. The euro appeared thanks to the creation of the European Union in 1992, first in non-cash form, and it was only on January 1, 1999 that it officially replaced the rest of the European currencies. A few more years passed and in June 2002 the EUR became the sole means of payment in the Eurozone, displacing the then favorite, the German mark (USD/DEM) from the pedestal.

This event was preceded by two others, which had an important influence on the formation of the subsequent EUR/USD exchange rate. The first is a cut in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve in late 2000, and the second is a series of four coordinated terrorist attacks, the largest in the history of mankind, committed in the United States on September 11, 2001, including the destruction of the twin skyscrapers of the World Trade Center in New York. As a result, having started from the rate of 0.93 dollars per euro, by the middle of 2008 the pair rose to the level of 1.60. In other words, the dollar has lost more than 70% against the euro.

However, the European Central Bank (ECB) did not want to see the euro so strong, as it posed serious problems for European exports and dealt a blow to the trade balance. Therefore, verbal intervention began in the market. In addition, positive news constantly came from the United States regarding the state of the economy of this country, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair began to slide southward and recorded the low of the second decade of the 21st century near the 1.032 mark by the end of December 2016.

Many analysts then predicted a quick parity for the pair at the level of 1: 1, but this did not happen. And now the European currency is quoted in the area of 1.22 dollars per 1 euro. 

What Happened: Year 2020

Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR / USD rate for 2020, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent.

Thus, back in December 2019 analysts at Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon and a number of other banks reached consensus, predicting a fall in the US dollar in 2020. The main reason was the slowdown in global economic growth. In addition, it was predicted that on the eve of the presidential elections, the US Federal Reserve under pressure from Donald Trump will continue to reduce interest rates, or at least keep them at the current level.

Both of these forecasts proved to be absolutely correct. If at the end of 2019. the DXY dollar index fluctuated around 97, then after 12 months it fell below 90 points. The interest rate also went down: in December 2019 - January 2020 it was 1.75%, in early March it was lowered to 1.25%, and then completely dropped to 0.25%.

Recall that in December 2019, only the first outbreak of COVID-19 in Chinese Wuhan was recorded, and there was no idea of a global pandemic. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock. And this scenario also came true 100%, and the coronavirus pandemic only played the role of a catalyst for this process: almost a quarter of all existing dollars were released in just one past year.

Some conspiracy theorists argue that the coronavirus was deliberately invented to implement the plan of a secret world government and help the financial elite buy up the bulk of dollar liquidity on the cheap. But exposing all sorts of conspiracies is not the purpose of this review. Therefore, let us turn to specific figures and see whose forecast turned out to be the most accurate.

According to Bloomberg, the consensus forecast of the largest market operators suggested that by the end of 2020, the US dollar wouldl "lose weight" by another 400-500 points, and the EUR/USD pair would rise to the 1.16 zone.

JPMorgan Chase specialists predicted the level of 1.14 for this pair for the end of 2020. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Merrill Lynch called 1.15. And the German Deutsche Bank and the French Societe Generale pointed to the level of $1.20 per euro. The last two forecasts turned out to be the most accurate: the pair reached a high of 1.225 at the end of 2020. (Recall that all these scenarios did not take into account the consequences of the blow that COVID-19has inflicted on the economy).

 
What Will Happen: Year 2021

Some experts believe that for the United States, the onset of COVID-19 can be compared with the Third World War: more than 300,000 dead, a third of the working population is left without a constant source of income. The pandemic hit the country at the end of the 10-year economic growth cycle and in a presidential election year. Additional pressure on the economy was exerted by the trade wars that Donald Trump unleashed with China and Europe, as well as the growth of the dollar supply.

Most likely, in 2021, money will actively flow to Europe, and the dollar will face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assess the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

So, for example, Goldman Sachs predicts a fall in the weighted USD rate in 2021 by only 6%, while Morgan Stanley expects the EUR/USD pair to rise from current levels to 1.25. (By the way, the figure 1.25 also sounds in many other moderate forecasts).

But there are also those who predict a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimate the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believes that the devaluation of the dollar can reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% is forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, we can see the EUR/USD pair in the 1.40-1.44 zone by the end of next year.

What can stop the dollar from falling?

Naturally, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy tightening. As of today, long-term inflation expectations have already jumped to 1.85%, which is not far from the regulator's target threshold of 2.0-2.5%. This inflation leads to the depreciation of the dollar. And at some point, lest the US currency collapse definitively, the Fed will be forced, albeit with great reluctance, to stop pumping the economy with cheap money and start a cycle of raising basic interest rates.

By the way, Europe, perhaps even more than the USA, is interested in stopping the growth of the EUR/USD pair.

Since mid-March 2020, the euro has strengthened against the dollar almost continuously. This is despite the fact that the ECB has printed over €2.2 trillion in a year and set negative interest rates.

There are calculations showing that a 10% strengthening of the euro is reducing Eurozone GDP by about 1%. And imagine that the EUR/USD pair will rise, as predicted in Citigroup, to the level of 1.40. Such growth would put all European exports at a blow. Who will then buy goods from the EU at rapidly rising prices?

The ECB already had a chance to weaken the euro against the dollar. However, this did not happen: the European regulator has decided not to interfere in the affairs of the foreign exchange markets and simply limit itself to "monitoring the exchange rate." But, according to many analysts, with the growth of the pair to levels around 1.25, the ECB will be forced to take very serious steps to limit the further growth of its currency. And it is quite possible that the next program of assistance to the EU economy in the amount of €2 or €3 trillion will be adopted in the near future. And in the wake of Europe, similar steps will be taken by the central banks of Great Britain, Canada, China and many other countries. And if 2019-2020 can be called the time of the World Trade Wars, then 2021 will be the time of the World Currency War.

Although ... most likely we will see both wars at the same time.   

Happy New Year, 2021! It promises to be very interesting!



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 06, 2021, 03:56:06 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/1PQM6ra.jpg)

- The rise in the bitcoin price in recent months has shown that the first cryptocurrency can rise in price to $100,000 per coin, said the head of the American division of Binance Catherine Coley. In her opinion, this growth can be “accelerated” compared to what happened after the second halving in 2016. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be slightly higher. I think that by the end of 2021 we will reach $75,000 - $100,000 per bitcoin,” the CEO of Binance.US believes.
More daring predictions for the BTC rate were made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.

- Investment bank JPMorgan has named a theoretical long-term target for the bitcoin price of $146,000. The millennial generation will drive adoption, JPMorgan says.
Experts believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make the first cryptocurrency even more popular. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
JPMorgan's forecast is based on calculating the possible capitalization of bitcoin in the event of an inflow of funds, which are now in ETFs based on gold and in bullions. At the same time, analysts noted that already in October 2020, some outflow of funds from such ETFs and an inflow into Grayscale funds were recorded.

- Popular analyst Willie Woo believes that bitcoin is firmly entrenched above $20,000. In his opinion, we will no longer see the pullback of the cryptocurrency below this psychological mark.
Of particular importance is also the level of $24,000. After bitcoin crossed this milestone, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of investors who are inclined to long-term storage of cryptocurrency. If the coin keeps above $24,000, the number of its buyers will continue to grow.

- Analytics of Twitter posts show that as bitcoin sets new highs, social media interest in the digital currency is also setting new records. So, the number of unique messages about Bitcoin has reached 66,832, exceeding the previous high of 64,652 set during the 2017 bull run.

- The rise of bitcoin to $35,000 in recent days has led to the re-formation of the so-called "kimchi premium", which consists in the excess of the price of cryptocurrencies over the world ones on Korean exchanges. The overpayment rate on January 4 reached 5.5%.
Such an excess of prices on some exchanges over others was especially typical for the first half of 2018, when the difference reached 54%.
According to a number of analysts, the current price dynamics indicates an increased interest in cryptocurrency among South Koreans. This is due not only to expectations of further growth in BTC, but also to the fact that the Korean won is a restricted currency that is difficult to convert and move across the border.

- Luxurious and exclusive sports cars are increasingly being bought for bitcoins, which indicates an increase in the number of crypto millionaires. For example, the Vegas Auto Gallery in Nevada, whose sells aming other makes Aston Martin, Bentley, Ferrari and Lamborghini brands, has recently sold two first-class sport cars to customers, at over $6 million worth in BTC.

- December 2020 has proven to be the most successful for bitcoin miners in the past three years. They earned $ 692 million last month, according to a report from analytical service Block Research. Of this amount, about $63 million were transaction fees. But many miners are willing to pay so much high fees, if only their operations were processed as a priority.

- Chinese online game operator The9 announced its intention to join the cryptocurrency mining industry. To this end, it entered into agreements with several investors, including former executives of the Chinese mining company Canaan Inc.
The9 is listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange and expects to raise new capital by issuing and selling common Class A shares to investors, as well as coupons for their purchase. “Our goal is to collect enough mining devices to provide 8-10% of the global bitcoin hash rate, 10% of the global Ethereum hash rate and 10% of the global Grin hash rate,” said Jun Zhu, CEO of The9. - We intend to become one of the largest companies in the world in terms of hash rate. This will accelerate the development of other areas of our business related to cryptocurrencies.”

- On January 3, 2009, a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main Bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Shortly before that, on October 31, 2008, the white paper of the first cryptocurrency was published. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto then sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. A version of Bitcoin_0.1 software was published three days earlier.
Satoshi Nakamoto's identity and the motives for creating bitcoin still remain a mystery. It is possible that one of the incentives for this was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008.
In July 2020, the Whale Alert Twitter account showed information that well before Nakamoto left the crypto community more than ten years ago, he managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now the cost of these coins would be about $40 billion.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 08, 2021, 07:32:13 AM
December 2020 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Trader's Profit Exceeds $100,000


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in December, last month of the past year 2020.

The highest profit in December was received by a client from China, account number 1345xxx. His profit exceeded the milestone of 100,000 and amounted to 107.654 USD. This impressive result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/USD, GBP/USD currency pairs and gold (XAU/USD).

In second place is a trader from India (account number 1518xxx), whose profit amounted to just under 40 thousand dollars (39.506 USD), and was obtained through trading in many pairs, primarily GBP/USD and GBP/JPY, as well as operations with altcoin No.1, Ethereum (ETH/USD).

The third place in the December TOP-3 belongs to another Chinese trader (account No.1465xxx), with a result of 38.409 USD, who also made transactions with the British pound and gold, GBP/USD and XAU/USD.

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading in December, the Mak jemah signal (increase of 111.06% with a fairly serious maximum drawdown of 37.12%) attracted attention, as well as KennyFXPRO (an increase of 27.61% with a moderate drawdown of 6.65%);
- in the PAMM service, the results are more modest. Here the leader was the manager with the nickname The Owl Midnight Scalper, who showed an increase of 18.43% over the month. However, the drawdown here was significantly lower, only 2,39%, which can be attractive for investors who prefer stable income with a moderate degree of risk.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 8.425, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account number 1491xxx, who received 5.991 USD;
- and finally, the top three in December 2020 is closed by another Indian partner, account No.1328ххх, who received $5.704 as a reward.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 11, 2021, 07:17:54 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 11 - 15, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar has been falling, and the EUR/USD pair has been rising accordingly since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic last March. And now it is no longer far from its Q1 2018 highs. True, the result of the last three weeks can be considered zero. And the blame is not only the Christmas and New Year holidays, but also the growth in the yield of US Treasury bonds, coupled with the hawkish statements of the Fed representatives.
After the certification of President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year-old American Treasuries skyrocketed, pulling the dollar with it. The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, said that the growth in Treasury yields confirms the desire of investors to see higher interest rates on USD, and the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, predicted that the curtailment of the QE program could begin in the second half of 2021. All this sharply reduced the appetite of the bulls, who began to close long positions in EUR/USD, as a result of which the pair ended the week at 1.2225;

- GBP/USD. The storms associated with the signing of the Brexit agreement subsided, and, following the EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair took a breather. Having reached a high of 1.3705 on January 04, by the end of the week it returned to where it had already visited in mid-late December, and finished at 1.3560;

- USD/JPY. Three weeks ago, we predicted the movement of the pair from the central line to the upper border of the medium-term channel, along which it has been sliding smoothly south from the end of March 2020. This is exactly what happened. Twice, on January 4 and 5, after bouncing off the central line, the pair went up sharply, approaching the upper border of the channel at 104.10 on January 8. A small pullback followed, and it froze at 103.95. Note that the 104.00 zone has been a strong support/resistance level for the last four months, from which the pair has repeatedly bounced off in one direction or another;

- Cryptocurrencies. it was 12 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or group of people under the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. A few days later, on January 12, the first bitcoin transaction took place: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. And more recently, in July 2020, information appeared on the Whale Alert Twitter account that before his mysterious disappearance more than ten years ago, Nakamoto managed to mine 1,125,150 BTC. Now, when bitcoin has reached the mark of $41,000, the value of these coins would exceed $45 billion, and Nakamoto would have taken the 25th place among the richest people on the planet.
Here, in fact, we have already announced the most important news of the past week: the quotes of the main cryptocurrency exceeded $41,000 on Friday, January 8. Thus, starting in December 2020, in just five weeks, each BTC coin grew 115% heavier.
Which pleases not only investors, but also miners. December turned out to be their most successful month in the last three years. According to the analytical service Block Research, in December the total revenue of miners reached $692 million, which is almost $1 million per hour.
At the moment, the cryptocurrency mining market is dominated by China, which, according to some estimates, accounts for more than 50% of the global hash rate. The head of Ripple even called Bitcoin and Ethereum cryptocurrencies controlled by China.
By the way, about Ripple. The last week and a half have given some hope to the owners of this altcoin. Recall that while the rest of the top coins were growing in price, the XRP/USD pair, starting from November 24, was steadily going down. Starting at $0.77, it fell to $0.17 by the end of 2020, shrinking 78%.
But this is not all either. The biggest disaster awaited Ripple in the futures market. On December 23, the price of the March futures for this token fell to $0.00023 on the BitMEX derivative platform. Investors sold 80 million coins in one minute - this is how the market reacted to the lawsuit of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which accused this startup of illegally selling securities under the guise of XRP for $1.3 billion.
Now the situation has stabilized somewhat, and XRP/USD is quoted at $0.31 on January 8. And if a trader placed orders in advance to buy Ripple at the minimum price, then they made a profit of 1350% in just the last two weeks.
Returning to the main cryptocurrency, we note that its volatility, of course, is not as cosmic as that of Ripple, but it still remains more than impressive, reaching 10% per hour. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in a very overbought zone: at 95 out of 100. But, despite this, following the BTC/USD quotes, the total crypto market capitalization continues to grow steadily, having reached $1.1 trillion. At the same time, the bitcoin dominance index came close to 70%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We described in detail a week ago how analysts from the world's leading banks and financial agencies see the rate of this pair in 2021. The median forecast is 1.2500, which corresponds to the January-February highs of three years ago.
As for the near future, 60% of experts hope that this January will become, if not a month of trend reversal, then at least a sufficiently deep correction of the pair to the south, which will return it to the level of 1.2050, or even 1.1900. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone. However, as for the indicators, this development was supported by only 80% of indicators on H4. On D1, both oscillators and trend indicators have taken a neutral position.
40% of analysts side with the bulls, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to them, the pair, having pushed back from 1.2200, should return to the uptrend, and we will soon see it at 1.2350. And then 1.2500 is not far off.
As for the events of the coming week, of interest are the data on the US consumer market, which will be published on Wednesday January 13 and Friday January 15. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is also scheduled to make a speech at the end of the working week, and the market will wait whether he confirms the words of his colleagues Thomas Barkin and Patrick Harker regarding a possible increase in interest rates and curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program;

- GBP/USD. In general, the forecast for the next week or two here is very similar to the forecast for the euro/dollar. Technical indicators on D1 provide either neutral or multi-directional signals. 60% of experts, 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair. 40% of analysts are for its growth, as well as the remaining indicators on H4 and graphical analysis on both timeframes. Support levels are 1.3525, 1.3485 and 1.3285. The next strong support is in the 1.3185 zone. Resistance levels are 1.3620 and 1.3725.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, which will take place on Monday, January 11;

- USD/JPY. How the yen will behave largely depends on both the risk sentiment of investors and the behavior of US Treasury securities. For now, most analysts (55%) are confident that the pair will stay within the downward medium-term channel and, having fought off its upper border around 104.00, will return to its central zone. This possibility is confirmed by 25% of oscillators giving signals on the pair being overbought on H4 and D1. The nearest support is 103.65, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.
35% of experts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for the fact that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the zone 104.70-105.00. The next target of the bulls is 105.70; And finally, the remaining 10% of analysts are neutral, suggesting that the pair will fluctuate around Pivot Point 104.00;
(https://i.imgur.com/cKlMPwt.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. Investors' optimism was added by the imminent coming to power in the United States of the Joe Biden administration. The founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, Mike Novogratz, noted on CNBC that Trump's team was never able to stop the record growth of the main cryptocurrency, and expressed hope that financial regulators under the leadership of the new president would take a more loyal position. “I hope that after the inauguration [January 20, 2021] we will get more progressive regulators. I will be happy to wait for the new administration and get a regulatory framework that supports rather than fights cryptocurrencies,” said Novogratz.
As for the entry into the market of large institutional investors, in addition to regulatory restrictions, they are hampered by extremely high volatility of major cryptocurrencies. Thus, experts at the investment bank JPMorgan believe that the image of an alternative to gold will make bitcoin even more popular and predict its growth to $146,000. But this requires convergence of the volatility indicators of bitcoin and gold, and this is a "multi-year process."
Looking at what's been happening with bitcoin lately, JPMorgan's estimate may seem too conservative to many. According to investment analytics from Pantera Capital, the market is just weeks away from seeing Bitcoin price at $115,000. Speaking on CNBC, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital investment company, called the limited supply of bitcoin as a key driver of growth in the value of this cryptocurrency. Currently, giants like PayPal and Grayscale are buying more BTC than bitcoin miners can mine, he explained.
At the moment, Bitcoin and Ethereum Grayscale trusts have accumulated digital assets of $14.075 billion and $1.808 billion, respectively. And, according to analyst Kevin Rooke, this giant continues to buy bitcoins, which suggests that Grayscale is set for long-term growth in the value of the largest digital currency.
Another popular analyst, Willie Woo, agrees with this. In his opinion, after bitcoin crossed the border of $24.000, it became clear that the market finally came under the control of long-term investors.
Binance, one of the largest crypto exchanges, also raised its forecast. “We thought the $50,000 price was reasonable, but that number will definitely be higher. I think that we will reach $75.000 - $100.000 for 1 BTC, by the end of 2021” says the CEO of its US unit Catherine Coley.
And finally, the most daring predictions for the BTC/USD pair, made by Insider co-founder Henry Blodget and the CEO of the Kraken bitcoin exchange Jesse Powell: both named $1 million per coin. However, the former believes that this will happen thanks to speculators, while the latter relies on the growth of institutional investments in cryptocurrency.
As for altcoin No.1, the capitalization of ethereum has exceeded $140 billion, which is many times more than that of such auto giants as, for example, General Motors ($59.5 billion), BMW ($47.1 billion) and Ferrari ($36.2 billion). Capital inflows into ETH will be even more significant in 2021, according to Messari analyst Ryan Watkins. Some investors are already concentrating exclusively on ethereum. And the key event for this altcoin will be the launch of ethereum futures on the Chicago Exchange (CME). In general, according to the estimates of the trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, Michael van de Poppe, a strong rally in the altcoin market should start after the first quarter of this year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 13, 2021, 03:48:36 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/mUiDYfv.jpg)

- Mike McGlone, crypto analyst at Bloomberg, believes that bitcoin could hit the $50,000 mark in the near future. He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen.
“The main cryptocurrency already hit the $40,000 mark in early January but pulled back slightly due to a number of external factors,” Mike McGlone commented on his forecast. - There is an opinion that the general situation in the financial market affected the value of the main coin. The United States is currently not in the best position due to fluctuations in the dollar, which is why investors are switching to cryptocurrency from fiat. The capitalization of the main coin is tending to record values. I think the asset will take the 50k barrier soon.” Moreover, according to еру Bloomberg specialist, the chances for growth are much greater than for further weakening of the exchange rate. According to him, a rollback to $20,000 is now practically impossible.

- According to Bitcoin Treasures, large public companies acquired more than 1 million BTC (5.57% of the cryptocurrency market supply) last year, with a current value of about $40 billion. One of the most active institutional investors in 2020 is the world's largest crypto fund, Grayscale Investments, which manages about 600 thousand BTC, and the total value of its crypto assets is estimated at $24.5 billion (as of January 11, 2021).
Another major institutional investor is Nasdaq-listed mobile software company MicroStrategy. It has invested $1.12 billion in bitcoin over the past six months as a risk hedge and now it owns more than 70 thousand BTC.

- We wrote in the previous CryptoNews that it was 12 years ago, on January 12, 2009, that the creator of Bitcoin, known by the nickname Satoshi Nakamoto, sent the first transaction on the bitcoin network to the developer Hal Finney. Unlike Satoshi, much more is known about this recipient of the cryptocurrency.
Hal Finney partnered with PGP Corporation for many years, developing encryption products. Six months before his death in August 2014, Finney described his first experience with bitcoin:
“When Satoshi released the software, I immediately connected. I think I was the first person besides Satoshi to launch bitcoin. In total, I mined 70-odd blocks and became the recipient of the first bitcoin transaction. " At that time, Satoshi sent ten coins for the test. Over the next few days, Finney corresponded with the creator of bitcoin by email, helping to troubleshoot errors.
Describing his experience, the developer regretted his initially low interest in bitcoin. After helping with network testing and his first mining experience, Finney simply turned off the computer "because it was warming up and ha was annoyed by the fan noise."
The next time the developer returned to Bitcoin was in 2010, when Laszlo Heinitz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC and the cryptocurrency was first exchanged for dollars. 'I blew the dust off my old wallet and was relieved to find that my bitcoins were still in place. My children are technically savvy enough for me to leave cryptocurrency to them inherit,” the developer wrote.
According to Finney, the identity of Satoshi remained a mystery to him, although he assumed that he was dealing with "a Newbie trader man of Japanese descent, very intelligent and sincere."

- Forbes magazine has compiled a list of people whose fortunes have grown significantly due to the rise in the price of cryptocurrencies. In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each.
Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million.
The last on the list is the co-founder of Ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.

- A discussion broke out online between billionaire Mark Cuban and the president of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff. The former expressed confidence in the ability of bitcoin and some altcoins to pass the “market bubble” similar to the way Amazon, eBay and Priceline experienced the dotcom boom.
Gold supporter Peter Schiff replied to this that “internet companies had real value, while no cryptocurrency has it.”
Cuban countered that the price of cryptocurrency, like gold, is determined only by supply and demand. “This is a means of saving value. There is no real use in bitcoin. All the talk of fiat and depreciation is advertising fiction. Bitcoin is not meant for transactions,” added the billionaire.

- Bitcoin trading on the PayPal platform is gaining popularity: trade volumes have increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. According to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for just $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, and their volume amounted to $242 million on January 11, which indicates an increase in interest from retail investors.
While many praise PayPal for providing access to cryptocurrencies, others criticize the platform for not supporting cryptocurrency withdrawal functionality. That is, PayPal users who buy bitcoin on the platform can only sell it there.
As a reminder, the ability to trade cryptocurrencies on PayPal appeared in November 2020. While the function is only available to users from the United States, in the future the company plans to provide access to it to residents of other countries.

- Ethereum is poised for further growth, said Dan Tapiero, founder of the DTAP Capital investment fund. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. In partnership with Standard Chartered bank, the holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.

- Changpeng Zhao, CEO and founder of the largest crypto exchange by trading volume, Binance, said that at one time he had sold his apartment to buy the first bitcoins. “It was 2013. I sold my apartment to buy bitcoins. The price of BTC at that point was something around $200,” he recalls. “Now I do not use fiat money at all and do not transfer cryptocurrency to fiat. For me personally, fiat is no longer relevant. I pay for food, taxi, and in general I pay for everything exclusively with cryptocurrency, "added the head of Binance.

- Seventy-year-old investor Bill Miller expressed the opinion that the first cryptocurrency has far from exhausted its growth potential. Firms like Square and PayPal buy freshly mined bitcoins every day, he said. Demand from retail investors is also growing. At the same time, in contrast to demand, the supply of digital gold increases slowly. This situation creates the prerequisites for the increase in the price of bitcoin to new heights.
Miller added that while people speculate about where the price peak is, the Fed's zero interest rate policy puts cash in a "guaranteed losing position." This means that holding 1–2% of a portfolio in bitcoin is a good hedge against risk, even if the cryptocurrency eventually crashes. “I think that owning a small number of bitcoins is more of a risk management strategy than anything else,” the American investor emphasized.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 17, 2021, 12:54:49 PM
NordFX Receives Three Prestigious Awards at the End of 2020


The winners of the awards of the International Academy of Trading Masterforex-V and the International Association of Forex Traders IAFT became known at the very beginning of the new year, 2021. Among the winners is the brokerage company NordFX, which has won three prestigious professional awards.

(https://i.imgur.com/Z91udZD.jpg)

Founded in 2005, Masterforex-V International Academy is one of the leading and most ambitious online projects in the field of foreign exchange trading. Today traders from more than 50 countries of the world are trained at the Academy. The rectorate and the students of the Academy evaluate the performance of financial organizations throughout the year, forming ratings, at the top of which NordFX has repeatedly found itself. And now, at the end of 2020, the MasterForex-V Academy community has once again expressed its trust and recognition to the company, having honoured it with the title of "World Most Reliable Broker."

The company received two more awards based on the results of the annual voting on the IAFT Awards website. It is organized by the International Association of Forex Traders (IAFT), in which more than 200,000 traders from various countries take part. Each of them can vote on the award website, which makes it possible to assess the activities of a broker as objectively as possible.

For the third year in a row, NordFX won the Best Broker in Asia nomination by a wide margin, which is an unconditional recognition of the company's active work and success in this most important region of the planet.

And another award from the International Association of Forex Traders, the title of the Best Cryptocurrency Broker of 2020, was a testament to the high quality of services that the company provides for operations in the digital asset market.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 18, 2021, 06:30:04 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 18 - 22, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (60%) were in favor of reducing the pair first to support 1.2100, and then, possibly, another 50 points lower. Almost everything happened as forecasted: the EUR/USD pair was at the level of 1.2075 at the end of the trading week.
It should be noted that a somewhat atypical situation has developed on the market since the start of 2021. Usually, the rise in the stock market puts downward pressure on the dollar. This is exactly what happened in the previous month: fueled by risk appetites, the S&P500 grew steadily, while the dollar index, which plays the role of a defensive asset, was steadily falling. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch, in December, large investors hoped for a quick victory over COVID-19, a surge in GDP, they were actively buyingt shares of technology companies and were also actively getting rid of the dollar. And now the situation has changed dramatically: the USD DXY index began to grow in parallel with the S&P500.
What is the reason for this? First, US stocks look overvalued at the moment. At least from the point of view of American investors. In addition, we wrote in the previous review that after the certification of the US President-elect Biden and the majority of Democrats in the Senate, the yield of 10-year American Treasuries went up sharply, pulling the dollar with it. The leaders of the Federal Reserve Banks (FRB) of Richmond and Philadelphia added fuel to the fire, hinting at a possible curtailment of the QE program and an increase in interest rates on the dollar; bulls began to close long positions in EUR/USD;

- GBP/USD. Over the past five days, this pair has drawn a clear sinusoid, moving in the 1.3450-1.3700 channel along the 1.3575 Pivot Point. At the beginning, it dropped to the lower border of this trading range, and then turned around and sharply went up, reaching the values of 2.5 years ago on Wednesday.
The pound was supported last week by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, who not only rejected the possibility of introducing a negative interest rate, but also expressed the opinion that the coronavirus pandemic is not capable of causing any structural changes in the UK economy. As a result, the pound showed the biggest gains in the past two months. However, then, following the general trend of strengthening dollar, the pair returned to the Pivot Point and finished the week at 1.3580;

- USD/JPY. The forecast, which was voted for by the majority of analysts (55%), turned out to be absolutely correct: the pair kept within the descending medium-term channel and, having bounced off its upper border, moved to its center.
Recall that another 10% of analysts assumed that the pair would move sideways, making fluctuations around Pivot Point 104.00. And they also turned out to be right: having started the five-day week at 103.95, it completed it also within this zone, at 103.85;

- cryptocurrencies. By the evening of Friday January 15, the bitcoin chart can equally likely speak of both a return to an uptrend or a continuation of a downward correction. Reaching a historic high of $41.435 on January 08, the BTC/USD pair turned south and dropped to $30.600 by January 11. All major indicators have long been giving signals of bitcoin being overbought, and only an excuse was needed for such a deep correction. And it was found in the form of an increase in the yield on US government bonds, which caused the dollar to strengthen. As a result, the main cryptocurrency lost more than 25% in price in just three days.
Then, to the delight of investors, the pair again approached the $40,000 mark, and the USA again became the formal reason for this. More precisely, President-elect Joe Biden, who announced a new $1.9 trillion economic aid package that includes $2,000 in direct payments to Americans. Such massive fiscal and monetary stimulus is likely to drive inflation and, as a result, increase demand for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.
All good things are known to end someday. So bitcoin stopped its growth on January 14, and failed to set a new height record. And then the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde called for global regulation of the digital currency market. Referring to the speculative nature of bitcoin, she stated that such regulation could be initiated within the G7 countries, then carried over to the G20, and eventually expanded to a global level.
Taking advantage of the situation, the bears regained control of the situation and the BTC/USD pair dropped below the $ 35,000 level again in the second half of Friday, January 15.
It should be noted that the activity of investors has significantly decreased at the start of 2021. According to CoinShares, only $29 million was invested in crypto funds in the first week of January. This is despite the fact that similar investments amounted to more than $ 1 billion the week before Christmas. Of course, such a lull can be explained by a respite for the holidays. Moreover, crypto whales also reacted sluggishly to the correction on January 8-11: withdrawal operations were recorded only on a very small number of their BTC wallets.
PayPal data show that at least the retail market is gradually waking up after the Christmas and New Year hibernation, the volume of bitcoin trading on this platform has increased by 950% since the beginning of January, that is, almost 10 times. If, according to the analytical service Nomics, platform users made transactions with BTC for only $22.8 million on January 01, 2021, their volume amounted to $242 million ten days later.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was $1 trillion by January 15 (it was $1.13 trillion at the high of January 10). The BTC dominance index is in the region of 68%, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 95 to 88 points over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell denied the statements of his colleagues from the regional Federal Reserve Banks, saying that one should not count on raising interest rates and curtailing soft monetary policy in the near future. These words, coupled with Joe Biden's new $1.9 trillion fiscal stimulus package, are likely to halt the rise in US Treasury yields and support the bulls on S&P500. Moreover, the hopes for vaccination, which will lead to a rapid growth in GDP, have not disappeared. Thus, Wall Street Journal experts predict an increase in American GDP by 4.3% in 2021.
But will this break the current correlation between the dollar and the stock market? Will the dollar stop rising? It is not excluded that the growth of the S&P500 will be supported not only by American, but also by major investors from other countries. And such an infusion of foreign capital into the US economy will lead to the strengthening of the US currency.
Now, specifically about the EUR/USD pair. It is clear that at the time of writing the forecast (January 15), most indicators are painted red. 100% of trend indicators on H4, 75% on D1, as well as 75% of oscillators on both timeframes look to the south. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is oversold.
As for the experts, their opinions are divided equally at the moment. But when moving from a weekly to a mid-term forecast, the scales are tilted towards the bulls. 65% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expect the dollar to weaken and the pair to rise to at least 1.2500-1.2550 over the next one and a half to two months. The nearest resistances are 1.2175, 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The main support area is 1.1800-1.1900.
As for the important events of the coming week, attention should be paid to the ECB's interest rate decision and the subsequent press conference of the management of this regulator on Thursday 21 January. And data on business activity of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be published the next day, on January 22;
(https://i.imgur.com/DHXAi3U.jpg)

- GBP/USD. Not only Germany and the EU, but also the UK will release statistics on business activity (Markit in the services sector) on Friday 22 January. This data could send a signal to investors about how the attack of a new coronavirus strain has affected the country's economy. Recall that earlier Britain reported record levels of deaths and new cases over the past few weeks in London and the south-east of England.
However, problems associated with COVID-19 are intensifying in other countries as well, including the United States. Therefore, 60% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, believe that the pair will be able to return to the level of 1.3700, and perhaps rise another 100 points higher. An additional argument for its growth is the new fiscal stimulus in the US, which has been discussed above.
Support levels 1.3540 and 1.3450;

- USD/JPY. The rise of the pair from the lower to the upper border of the descending medium-term channel, which took place in the first two weeks of January, is associated by a number of experts with an increase in risk sentiment and a decrease in interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency. Based on this, they believe that the pair will still be able to break through the upper border of the designated channel and rise to the 105.00 zone. 35% of analysts and graphical analysis on D1 vote for this scenario. The next target of the bulls is 105.70, the nearest resistance is the zone 104.00-104.35.
The majority of experts (65%) are confident that the pair will stay within the designated channel. The nearest support is 103.60, the next one is 103.00. The target is located in the 102.50 area.

- cryptocurrencies. So, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is now at the level of $1 trillion. This is an important psychological level, especially for retail investors. Further growth of this indicator will be a clear confirmation of forecasts about the rise of the BTC/USD pair at least to a height of $50.000. If the capitalization goes down, then this can cause a landslide sale of coins: the example of the 2018 crypto winter is alive in the market memory.
In the meantime, the market is still dominated by an optimistic mood. So, for example, Bloomberg crypto analyst Mike McGlone believes that $50.000 is a real target for bitcoin.  He gave a forecast a few months ago, according to which BTC was supposed to grow to a new historical high in December 2020, which eventually did happen. “I think that the asset will take the barrier of 50 thousand in the near future,” said this expert and added that the chances of BTC growth are much greater than its further weakening, and a pullback to $20,000 is now practically excluded.
Dan Morehead, CEO of investment company Pantera Capital, predicts that bitcoin's price will hit $115,000 by August 2021 and events such as the launch of the digital yuan will help further the LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)ion of cryptocurrencies into the global economy.
If this happens, there will be even more crypto millionaires and billionaires in the world. For now, according to Forbes, the list of the richest of them looks like this:
In first place are the founders of the bitcoin exchange Gemini, the Winklevoss brothers. The estimated value of their cryptocurrency assets, according to Forbes, is about $1.4 billion each. Bloq co-founder Matthew Roszak with $1.2 billion in digital assets ranks second, followed by venture capitalist Tim Draper. According to Forbes, the value of his assets is estimated at $1.1 billion.
In fourth place is the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Sailor, with assets worth $600 million, in fifthis the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz. Forbes valued his cryptocurrency assets at $478 million. The last on the list is the co-founder of ethereum Vitalik Buterin with assets worth $360 million.
Speaking of ethereum. According to the founder of the investment fund DTAP Capital Dan Tapiero, this coin is ready for further growth. This is evidenced by the interest on the part of institutional clients of the American financial holding Northern Trust. The holding company launches a service for storing cryptocurrencies, in partnership with Standard Chartered bank. And "if Northern Trust stores bitcoin and ethereum, then they have buyers for both assets," Tapiero substantiated his point of view.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 20, 2021, 04:25:04 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/ESNWnzU.jpg)

- Bitcoin has proven to be the most profitable asset in the past nine years due to constant fluctuations in value. According to experts, in this case it is not only about a direct increase in the price of cryptocurrency. Even when the coin sinks, it benefits traders who buy it at the price lowest for a certain period.
“Currently, the base coin is trading at $35,000. If everything develops in about the same direction, then in February it will be possible to see bitcoin for $45,000 or even more,” predicted the head of Pantera Capital investment company Dan Morehead, and at the same time he advised traders and other industry participants to be reasonable, since bitcoin has always been unstable. Even against the backdrop of the rally that began in December last year, the asset continues to remain risky, which is well understood by all experienced coin holders.

- JPMorgan Chase strategists, led by Nicholas Panigirtzoglou, believe that bitcoin could lose ground in the short term if it fails to break above $40,000. This month, the flagship cryptocurrency has twice broken through this key level, and then rolled back.
The key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion, analysts say. "For such a breakthrough to occur, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust will likely need to maintain an inflow rate of $100 million per day over the coming days and weeks." However, if BTC still fails to hit the $40,000 mark, a deep correction can be expected.

- After a deal to sell cryptocurrency, a Hong Kong resident was robbed of $448,700. This is reported by news agency South China Morning Post. The buyer of the digital currency invited the trader to the office of ashopping center to carry out the transaction. She transferred USDT tokens and received HK $3.5 million in cash. After the transaction, three men ran out of a nearby room and, threatening with a knife, took away the victim's money and the smartphone. The woman was locked up, and all four "buyers" fled.
Interestingly, the victim had already conducted several successful transactions with this buyer. According to police, in this way the criminals won the trust of the victim.

- Billionaire Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Group, has significantly changed his attitude towards bitcoin. Earlier, Marks stated that investing in cryptocurrency is a very dangerous operation that can cause huge losses for large investors. In 2017, during the bitcoin rally, he advised to refrain from buying coins. In addition, he called cryptocurrencies "fake" and said they had no real value.
And now the billionaire says that his "skeptical views on cryptocurrency assets have not been confirmed." “Let's hope,” Marx wrote, “that events will continue to develop as actively as they are now. The cryptocurrency market is gradually emerging from the shadow sector, as evidenced by a large number of major investors. I think it still has real value. My family owns an impressive number of bitcoins, which I support at this stage.”

- According to the online edition Forklog, a "biblical message" was found in the bitcoin block No.666666. “Do not be overcome by evil, but overcome evil with good,” says the Epistle to the Romans of the Apostle Paul, chapter 12, verse 21. An unknown person added this quote from the sixth book of the New Testament to block # 666666 of the bitcoin network and sent two equal amounts in the first cryptocurrency to two addresses, the first characters of which contain the words "God" and "Bible" in English.

- The former CEO of the now defunct South Korean cryptocurrency exchange Coinnest was sentenced to 18 months in prison. It is reported by Bitcoin.com with reference to local media.
According to the case file, ex-director Kim Ik Hwang received a bribe of 110 BTC ($770 thousand at that time) in February 2018 for listing the S-coin, which was issued by K Group. Subsequently, 2 million S-coins with a total value of $125,500 were also credited to his account.
Although the defendant pleaded not guilty, the Supreme Court sentenced Kim to one and a half years in prison for commercial bribery and fined him over $61,000. “Hwang manipulated market prices and gained unreasonable profit for it. Such actions undermine confidence in the crypto industry, which means they are unacceptable," the prosecutor said.

- 2020 has turned out much better for long-term investors than the previous year. The market capitalization of 30 key assets of the cryptocurrency market grew by 308% (versus 62% in 2019), according to a report from CoinGecko. Among the five largest coins, bitcoin has shown the best results, having risen in price by about four times (in 2019 - by 95%). Ethereum looked even better, its price rose by 472% after near-zero dynamics over the previous 365 days. Portfolios with DeFi protocol tokens gained 718% on average.

- Scott Meinerd, investment director at Guggenheim Partners, compared the current situation with what happened to the economy after the Spanish flu epidemic in 1918. At the same time, he confirmed his forecast for the bitcoin rate at $400,000 but warned of a possible correction.
According to the specialist, the latest rise in the BTC rate could have been caused by retail investors. “I think it's about them. There is some speculative frenzy in the market. It may be worth withdrawing some of the funds from cryptocurrencies,” Minerd said.

- A startup in the field of cybersecurity Red Balloon Security from New York (USA) as a test task sends applicants to vacant places a hard drive with locked bitcoins worth about $5 thousand and several boxes of chocolates.
In a week, the applicant needs to get access to the cryptocurrency wallet. If successful, part of the funds must be spent on buying a ticket to New York in order to meet with a representative of Red Balloon Security. Anyway, one can keep the chocolates.
The company sends such packages to almost everyone, but at the same time it regularly changes the content of the test so that applicants cannot share their results on the Internet. Statistics show that for 150-200 people there is only one applicant who has successfully completed the task.

- One of the world's largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, is exploring the possibility of launching a custodian service for digital assets. This is reported by CoinDesk with reference to its own source within the bank. “Like JPMorgan,” the source said, “we have released an RFI for digital storage. We are studying the issue extensively and deciding what to do next. " Regarding the timing of the launch of services related to cryptocurrencies, the source replied that the bank's plans "will become apparent in the near future."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 22, 2021, 09:38:48 AM
How to Start Trading on Forex. Rapid Growth Plan


The Forex currency market is one of the few places where everyone can try to realize themselves. The absence of superiors, the non-existent ceiling on earnings, the work schedule for which you are responsible — all this is in the trader's profession.  But becoming one is not an easy task.

Newcomers who come here face a number of difficulties. Many do not understand how to start trading Forex and what is needed for this. Therefore, they make mistakes at the beginning, which can discourage the desire to trade on Forex forever after the first attempt.

Since the path of novice traders and investors cannot be called an easy walk, we have prepared our own action plan. By following it, you will quickly find the key to understanding the market, and Forex trading will begin to generate income, for which, in fact, you came here.

Where to Start Trading on Forex

Forex market is a decentralized interbank exchange where currency is traded between its participants. In simple words, Forex is the global market for currency trading . The main source of a trader's earnings is the exchange rate difference between the price of buying and selling one currency in exchange for another. For example, you can buy and then sell back dollars for euros, or Japanese yen for Chinese yuan. But before you start predicting the benefit of a particular deal and making money from it, you should go through the following main stages. There are seven of them, and these are:
1. Choosing a broker ;
2. Opening of a trading account;
3. Downloading the platform (for broker NordFX, this is MT4);
4. Acquaintance with the theoretical part;
5. Choosing a currency pair and trading strategy;
6. Testing theory on a demo account and obtaining the necessary skills;
7. Smooth transition to real trading with real money.

How to Choose a Forex Broker

The foreign exchange market is arranged in such a way that only large capital can access it directly. We are talking about millions of dollars, because the main participants in trading are banking institutions and institutional investors, such as hedge funds. To start trading on Forex , a private trader needs to use the services of an intermediary - a broker . The latter accumulates all orders of traders into a single powerful pool and enters the market with it. Thanks to this, Forex trading has become available to everyone, even those who have very little capital.

It is important to choose a decent brokerage company. When you open a trading account , the next step is to fund it. Your money is a tidbit for scammers. There are cases when fake companies simply imitated real trading. There are also those that are doing their best to under various pretexts not to return customers profit earned by them. To do this, they use non-market quotes or fictitious server crashes. There are those who deliberately insert sticks into the wheels, juggling spreads, requotes, slippage. Therefore, choosing a broker can be compared to laying the foundation for building a house.

Regulation and Reputation

One of the basic criteria for choosing a broker is their regulation and reputation.

A law-abiding company must be legally registered to allow the appropriate type of business. Despite the fact that the conditions for each country are different, the company's activity in the financial markets is always closely monitored. These are the issuance of a license, verification of reports, payment of insurance premiums, consideration of complaints and monitoring. As soon as a broker begins to go beyond the law, at best it is fined for a very large sum, or even deprived of its license, forbidding it to work.

In addition to the license, you should carefully study the company's reputation and history. Brokers who once took the path of deception cannot exist for a long time. First, the regulator's response is imminent. Secondly, there is a wave of negative reviews.

The longer the broker stays in the market, the clearer its reputation becomes. From the position of a trader, choosing a company without history and reputation is not justified.

The brokerage company NordFX has been operating in the financial markets since 2008 and is included in the TOP-10 and TOP-20 of many international ratings. It has received more than 50 honorary awards, including those as an exceptionally reliable highly professional broker. During this time, clients from more than 190 countries of the world have opened more than one and a half million accounts in it. Agree, that says a lot!

NordFX works not only in the foreign exchange, but also in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. And during this time, unlike many cryptocurrency exchanges, there was not a single hacker hacking in the company, not a single foreign exchange transaction settles of customer funds was stolen. And all this thanks to the combination of many years of experience of NordFX specialists and the advanced technologies and equipment they use.   

Trading Terms

The beginner may have the impression that the terms of the trading account are identical regardless of the broker. In fact, this is not the case. The size of the spread, commission or swap, the speed of order execution, the minimum deposit size, the variety of trading instruments, leverage - all these factors uniquely affect the final profitability of a trader's work.

The difference becomes noticeable when studying the details. For example, some have huge spreads for the currency pair you are interested in, while others, on the contrary, have low spreads. The broker that you choose should have the trading conditions that are right for you. Trading in poor trading conditions will do no good. For example, if you trade inside the day on short time frames, the size of the swap doesn't make any difference to you. But if you keep your position open for several weeks or months, then a negative swap can “eat up” all your profits and bring only losses.

The size of the leverage is also important. Under normal conditions in the market, you may not use it, but under extraordinary conditions it can be your lifeline that will keep you from falling victim to financial storms and hurricanes. At NordFX, for example, the maximum leverage for currency pairs reaches 1: 1000, which significantly expands your opportunities for using a variety of trading strategies and hedging risks.

Speed and Withdrawal Methods, Support

It is important to check the future partner (and the broker is your partner) for the ability to solve current problems. To do this, ask Support a few questions  and assess how quickly you got the answer to your question. If the problem is not solved, ­you should think about the quality of service.

Many do not attach importance to this, but at times of real problems only effective support can minimize damage.

Pay attention to the methods of depositing and withdrawing money, their variety, the size of the commission and the speed of order execution. It is counterproductive to cooperate with a brokerage company, which has a term of withdrawal of money as one month in the regulations.

Opening a Trading Account

When you have laid the foundation, that is, decided on a reliable brokerage company, the next step is to open a trading account. Forex trading is carried out through it. One company may have several types of accounts. You should choose a specific one, focusing on your tasks, the amount of capital, and expediency.

Broker NordFX offers its clients four types of accounts. Each of them is unique in its own way and endowed with advantages that, in total, cover all the requirements that a trader can impose on them, and allow you to effectively use a wide variety of trading strategies, conducting transactions with currencies, cryptocurrencies, precious metals, oil, stock indices and shares of leading world companies.

Downloading the Platform

Trading on financial markets is carried out using special software. Depending on which terminal is selected, the number of tools for price analysis and your capabilities will depend. Indicators, advisors, scripts make trading more comfortable and efficient.

Today, in Forex, the majority of traders in the world choose the MetaTrader 4 (MT4) platform. Its interface is intuitive, which allows, just a few minutes after meeting, to make the first transaction. As for the tools and opportunities, they are huge. Study the functional features of MT4 in detail, and you will understand how much it can do for you.

Acquaintance with the Theoretical Part

A trader is a profession that, in principle, anyone can comprehend. But, like in any occupation, there are a number of secrets here, without which you cannot rise from a beginner to the level of a high-class professional. In order to become one, you need to study the theory that is dedicated to the foreign exchange market. This applies not only to methods of technical analysis of charts, but also to understanding the basics of pricing and the functioning of world markets. The following tutorials and tutorials will help you with this:
1. “How to Make a Living Trading Foreign Exchange” - Courtney Smith;
2. “A Man for All Markets: From Las Vegas to Wall Street” - Edward O. Thorpe;
3. “The Psychology of Trading: Tools and Techniques for Minding the Markets” - B.  Steenbadger;
4. " Beyond Candlesticks " - Steve Nison;
5. "How to Play and Win at a Stock Exchange" - Alexander Elder.

You can find useful content on exchange topics on thematic sites and, of course, in the NordFX educational section. There's just a huge amount of it. And when you become grounded in theory, you will naturally be able to make significantly more informed decisions when opening and closing trades.

However, the theoretical base may not be enough. The psychology of a trader has a huge impact on the financial result. And if you are still not confident in your abilities, such areas of social trading as PAMM accounts and CopyTrading can come to the rescue.

Choosing a Currency Pair and Trading Strategy

It is enough to read one book about currency, commodity, or world stock exchanges to understand the importance of system trading. In this case, you can do the following:
1. Create your own strategy based on the obtained theoretical data;
2. Take someone else's, adjusting it for yourself.

The currency pair will play an important role. We recommend that beginners pay attention to assets where the spread value is minimal. These are currency pairs such as: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, and a number of others.

If you wish to work with CFDs on stocks, NordFX has allocated a separate Stocks trading account to do so. Many tens of shares of the world's largest companies are available for trading on it.

Testing Theory on a Demo Account and Gaining Skills

The major advancement in the exchange business, made possible in recent decades by computers and the Internet, is electronic trading. Modern platforms store a huge historical array of quotes, on the basis of which you can automatically conduct a thorough analysis, form a trading strategy and test your ideas. It is worth learning the strategy tester built into MetaTrader-4 here.

Of course, the demo account should also be borne in mind. Thanks to it, you can trade in real time with virtual money. But the demo account has one huge drawback. The trader here does not risk losing real capital, therefore, they act much more recklessly than when trading in the real market.

To understand psychology and how important it is in this profession, you can test ideas on a Fix account. The minimum deposit is only $10 here, so it's a great way to feel all on yourself: the grief of defeat, excitement, fear and, of course, the joy of victory.

Smooth Transition to Real Trading

The preliminary experience gained on a demo account allows you to proceed to the final stage - to start using a real trading account. It is important to be aware that there is a huge difference between the real and the demo accounts.  As mentioned above, it lies in the perception of loss. In the case of real money, losses are always taken to heart. And it is critical at this stage not to do the following stupid things:
1. Try to deviate from the terms of your trading strategy;
2. Start to recoup;
3. Forget about cutting losses;
4. Start waiting through drawdown;
5. Succumb to the excitement.

When you start trading real money, learn to stop on time, work on your mistakes. A couple of hours spent analyzing the transaction report can reveal the strengths and weaknesses not only of your trading strategy, but also of your own character. And this is often more important than knowledge in technical or fundamental analysis of Forex.

With What Amount You Can Start Trading on Forex

Among beginners, there is an opinion that a small amount of capital is enough to start making serious money. For example, a Fix account allows you to make a trade with a “capital” of just one dollar. Is that enough to begin with? From our point of view, it is. But only for a start, and not to buy a villa, a yacht and a personal plane.

Examples are often advertised on the Internet in which traders manage to get astronomical profits of hundreds, thousands, and even tens of thousands of percent. And the most interesting thing is that this is not a lie, it really happens. But this is a very risky game, which then, most often, leads to the collapse and loss of all funds.

Imagine that, having accelerated your car on the Formula 1 track to 300 km/h, you then jump out into a city intersection. How will this end? Everyone has a chance of staying alive, but it is small and has nothing to do with a professional approach. Any rider will say the speed must meet road conditions. Likewise in Forex, you need to learn to hurry slowly, give up crazy ideas and set realistic goals for yourself. Everyone has a chance of success. However, you should not treat trading in financial markets as a stabilizing speculation where luck decides everything.  Knowledge and experience decide everything here.

Though, some luck won't hurt either...


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 23, 2021, 12:19:59 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 25 – 29, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. We published a chart seven days ago that clearly showed how the correlation between the S&P500 index and EUR/USD was broken in early January. But now everything is back to normal: the S&P500 continued its growth, reaching a historic maximum of 3859.84 on January 21, and the EUR/USD pair went up with it, fully justifying the forecast of the majority (65%) of experts. Groping on Monday the local bottom at 1.2053, the euro then rose to 1.2190, the final chord sounded slightly lower, at 1.2170.
The end of the week was quite calm, thanks to the head of the European Central Bank. Christine Lagarde was never able to weaken the European currency, but also did not allow it to seriously overtake the dollar. And this can be considered a certain success. 
In her speech following the ECB meeting on Thursday 21 January, Madame Lagarde explained what is good and what is bad. The "Good" section includes the start of vaccinations, the success of the EU economic recovery and the reduction of political uncertainty in the US. The "Bad" section includes the worsening epidemiological situation, increased lockdowns, the likelihood of a double recession in the eurozone and low inflation, which is reluctant to grow because of the strong euro. At the same time, the ECB refused again at its meeting last Thursday to adjust monetary policy, only stating that “the package of the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme may not be used in full.” That news pushed the euro up. However, not by much since no specifics followed. And what criteria will be used to determine the scale of PEPP has remained a mystery to investors;

- GBP/USD. The pound grew along with the euro for the first half of the week. And it even broke through the upper boundary of the channel 1.3450-1.3700, reaching the height of 1.3745. However, the ending of the five-day period turned out to be blurry. The rally in the pound was not supported either by retail sales (an increase of 0.3% instead of the forecasted 1.2%), or business activity indicators: in the service sector, the Markit index fell from 49.4 to 38.8. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson added pessimism, saying that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. As a result, the pound made a reversal, returned within the designated channel, and finished at 1.3680;

- USD/JPY. Recall that the main forecast, supported by 65% of analysts, said that this pair would hold within the downward medium-term channel, which began in the last days of March 2020 of the year. Levels 103.60 and 103.00 were called as supports.
That scenario turned out to be perfectly correct. The pair moves for the second week in a row unsuccessfully trying to break the upper bound of this channel. The first attempt last week was made on Tuesday January 19, when it bounced off the support at 103.60 and reached 104.07. The next rebound, on Thursday January 22, from the level of 103.30, was stopped at 103.90, after which the pair ended the working week where it had already visited repeatedly in January, in the 103.80 zone;

- cryptocurrencies. Is this atemporary correction or the beginning of a new crypto winter? This question became dominant last week. Bitcoin dipped below $29.000 on Friday December 22, which, of course, scared many investors. Guggenheim investment director Scott Minerd predicts a further decline down to $20,000 - the zone from which the explosive rally started in the second half of December 2020, which raised the BTC quotes by 100%.
Optimists reassure: over the year, bitcoin has risen in price by 5.75 times, from $7,300 on January 01, 2020 to $41.900 on January 08, 2021, so a correction by "some" 30% is, they say, not a reason for panic. In addition, a number of analysts note that this time the fall of bitcoin is not accompanied by an exit to fiat. Investors, fixing profits on the main cryptocurrency, do not leave the digital market, but open positions on more promising, in their opinion, altcoins. For example, on ethereum, the price of which has increased more than 11 times over the year. And if by the evening of January 22, the BTC/USD pair lost 22% relative to the maximum, then the decline in ETH/USD was less than 10%.
This version is also supported by data on the crypto market capitalization. In seven days, total capitalization, including bitcoin, decreased by 9.5% (from $1.028 trillion to $0.933 trillion). At the same time, the capitalization of altcoins remained at the same level of $300 billion. It was mainly bitcoin that was losing, the dominance index of which decreased from 67.48% to 64.31%. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, increased from 13.52% to 15.01%.
As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally came out of the overbought zone and fell from 88 to 40 points in a week. This value corresponds to a neutral state, when it is too late to open short positions on the BTC/USD pair, and too early to open long positions. Although, according to analysts, it is during such price rollbacks that "whales" begin to actively replenish their bitcoin wallets, buying up coins of small alarmist investors.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Analyzing the results of the last ECB meeting, we can conclude that, despite the not very clear comments of Ms. Lagarde, the mood of the European regulator is still hawkish. The bank's Governing Council noted that EU debt markets had shown a rise in yields and concerns about a rapid strengthening of the euro had eased. Now we must wait for the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on January 28. The interest rate on the dollar is likely to remain at the same level of 0.25%, so the main interest will be the comments of the regulator's management regarding the monetary policy in the near future. Special attention will be drawn to them also because this will be the first Fed meeting since the inauguration of the new US President Joe Biden.
Of course, we will also see the release of a fairly large volume of macro statistics next week, including the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the United States (to be announced on Wednesday January 27), as well as data on the GDP of the United States and Germany, which will be released, respectively, on Thursday January 28 and Friday January 29.
In the meantime, the opinions of experts have been distributed as follows. 45% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on D1, 75% of oscillators on ?4, 90% of trend indicators on H4 and 75% on D1, side with the bulls. The nearest resistances are 1.2275, 1.2300 and 1.2350. The medium-term target is the same - rise to a height of 1.2500-1.2550.
The opposite view is held by 55% of experts. 25% oscillators on H4 signal that the pair is overbought. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. The main objective is the zone 1.1800-1.1900;

- GBP/USD. At the time of writing the review, oscillator readings on H4 look pretty chaotic. As for the remaining indicators, most of them are still painted green. Thus, 75% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1, as well as 75% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 look to the north.
But as for analysts, they, for the most part (65%), do not share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason, as mentioned above, is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates.
The support levels are zone 1.3615-1.3635, then 1.3525 and finally the lower limit of the three-week side channel 1.3450. Resistance levels ¬- the upper limit of the channel 1.3700, 1.3745 and 1.3800;
(https://i.imgur.com/n7MpHIq.jpg)

- USD/JPY. At its meeting on Thursday January 21, the Bank of Japan, as well as the ECB, did not adjust the parameters of its monetary policy. The expectations for GDP were slightly lowered over the past, 2020, but the regulator raised its forecasts for 2021, considering that despite everything, the country's economy will continue to grow.
Based on this, 70% of experts favored further smooth strengthening of the yen and the descent of the pair to support 103.00, and in case of increased volatility - another 50 points lower. The nearest support is 103.30.
An alternative scenario, for which 30% of experts voted, assumes a breakdown of the upper border of the descending channel, and the rise of the pair first to the resistance of 104.00, then 104.40. The next goal of the bulls is zone 104.70-105.00;

- cryptocurrencies. It is no secret how highly volatile and risky bitcoin is. Its explosive growth was driven by large institutional investors who began to enter the crypto market in the second half of 2020, fueled by the COVID-19 pandemic and fiscal stimulus from the US Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates and flooded the market with cheap dollars.
And now analysts are talking about the fact that cryptocurrencies could only be a temporary measure to preserve capital, and that now institutions are phasing out purchases of digital assets.
According to JPMorgan Chase strategists, the key to the short-term outlook for bitcoin's price is the world's largest digital asset management company Grayscale Investments, with a crypto portfolio currently valued at $23 billion. According to the calculations of bank analysts, for the BTC/USD pair to break through the resistance of $40,000, it is necessary that Grayscale Bitcoin Trust maintain the pace of inflow funds of $100 million per day in the coming days and weeks. Otherwise, a deep correction can be expected.
At the time of writing the forecast, the pair's quotes are in the region of $32,500. This is a fairly strong support/resistance level for the past three weeks. And if capitalization does not go up, and the price again manages to fall below $30,000, one can expect increased pressure from the bears and a new wave of active sales. 65% of experts agree with this.
But there are also professional market participants who maintain a moderately bullish mood, which is confirmed by positive premiums for March futures, + 3.5-5.0%. And the head of investment company Pantera Capital Dan Morehead expects to see "bitcoin for $45,000 or even more" in February. However, he advises traders and other industry participants to be as prudent as possible.
The statements of the new US administration also inspire some optimism. So the candidate for the US Treasury and former Fed Chairman Janet Yellen, speaking about possible improvements to the traditional financial system, called for encouraging the use of cryptocurrencies, if it, of course, occurs within the framework of the law. But time will tell what these laws will be. Although ... already now those who wish can use the services of ... a fortune teller.
As Reuters reported, fortune teller Maren Altman from New York makes her predictions of the bitcoin rate based on the movement of the stars. She predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin absolutely accurately, since on that day the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) should have been crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator). Looking ahead, Ms. Altman sees “some favorable signals at the end of the month and especially in February and early March.” “However, a big correction will begin in mid-March,” the fortune teller says. “Mid-April also looks pessimistic. May is bullish.”
By the way, Ms. Altman already has more than a million followers on social networks, among whom there may be large institutional investors. So, it is possible that it is she, together with the stars, and not Grayscale Investments, who runs the crypto market ?.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 27, 2021, 03:21:28 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/5MAJAdH.jpg)

- Bank of Singapore, one of the largest Asian financial institutions, has once again called bitcoin a promising instrument. According to experts, the main cryptocurrency has proven that it can remain a profitable asset even in times of crisis. A new report by the Bank of Singapore says that bitcoin has lost its status as a “risky” financial instrument over the years, becoming “relatively stable”, and may not only compete with gold, but also displace it from the first place in terms of investment safety.
At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions will be performed."

- The majority of cryptocurrency investors are currently people aged 45+, we are talking about residents of almost 80 countries. The research was carried out by experts of the Wirex platform in conjunction with the Stellar Development Foundation, who studied the income in the cryptocurrency industry in 24 months. As a result, it turned out that only 22% of investors are between 25 and 45 years old. Back in 2018, the situation was fundamentally the opposite. Then, many experts noted that cryptocurrencies are assets of the so-called millennials who are ready to invest in new instruments. However, over the past two years, many middle-aged people have joined the industry, deciding to convert some of their assets to bitcoin or other coins.

- Experts from the Weiss rating agency believe that bitcoin could reach the $50,000 level in 2021. “The entry of institutional capital into the cryptocurrency industry has become one of the fundamental events. Grayscale and MicroStrategy have already invested in digital assets. Other large companies and funds are thinking about investing in bitcoin. If the inflow of investments continues to increase, then we will see the main coin at 50 thousand dollars and even more expensive very soon, " according to Weiss.

- The head of the ARK Investment Management investment company, Katie Wood, believes that more and more companies will store part of their reserves in bitcoin in the future, hedging their risks in this way. She stated this in an interview with Yahoo Finance. “This is especially true of technology companies that understand this and are comfortable with cryptocurrencies,” added the head of ARK Investment.

- Former head of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) Janet Yellen became the first woman in history to serve as US Treasury Secretary. When heading the Fed from 2014-2018, Yellen called the first cryptocurrency a speculative asset. However, following her nomination as finance minister in November 2020, she changed her rhetoric, promising to closely monitor the industry and consider ways to encourage the legitimate use of digital assets. According to her, regulators can use the advantages of cryptocurrencies to improve the efficiency of the financial system.
 
- US resident Simon Berne created a mining farm of six Nvidia RTX 3080 video cards and placed it in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. (The price of such a car is about $147,500). According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling. He made the assembly of the farm himself to annoy gamers. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W.

- Crypto bank Galaxy Digital by Mike Novogratz will launch new funds based on Ethereum in February. We are talking about the Galaxy Ethereum Fund targeted at institutional investors and two funds for retail clients. As for the Galaxy Ethereum Fund, 1% will be charged for management there on investments from 100 thousand dollars and 1.25% for smaller investments. The threshold for participation will be $25,000. In the other two funds, the fee would be 0.75% for Class A shares and 1% for Class B shares. The launch of Galaxy Digital funds coincides with the start of Ethereum futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

- Most of the cryptocurrency supporters are familiar with the idiom "to the moon". And now, 22-year-old American Jimmy Donaldson known for his crazy antics, such as giving away $1 million and building the world's largest Lego tower, decided to turn that expression into reality. (Donaldson is also known as YouTuber MrBeast with over 50 million subscribers.) 
“Astrobotics and NASA are sending a lander to the moon at the end of this year, we were able to find a place on it to install a hard drive. And I thought it would be great to let you guys put whatever you want there,” wrote MrBeast. He announced that for $10, anyone could send him a photo, which he would save on this hard drive. With the money received, Donaldson plans to purchase about 30 bitcoins (about $1 million), which will also be sent to the moon. The Youtuber called this project "The first digital time capsule in the Universe."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 29, 2021, 07:10:33 AM
What is Forex Market


What is Forex? This is a huge over-the-counter marketplace where various currencies are exchanged. Its turnover exceeds 5 trillion dollars a day! (For comparison: the turnover of all world stock markets is "just" about 85 billion dollars, that is, almost 60 times less).

Forex was created for international commercial activity, but today there are not only companies conducting such work, but also private traders who have received access to trade, as well as investors whose main purpose is to profit from fluctuating quotations.

In this article, we will look at the history of the emergence and formation of the international currency exchange market, the main participants in this market, as well as the principles of trading.

Is Forex an Exchange or Not?

You can often find on the internet the opinions of traders who say that Forex is an exchange. In fact, this is not the case. An exchange is a separate platform for trading. Forex is an over-the-counter market, that is, there is no common platform for currency exchange transactions.

At its core, the Forex market is a set of market makers (banks) that offer their services to everyone who wants to exchange certain currencies. Some banks are merging into larger aggregators to increase liquidity. Subsequently, all those who want to participate in trades connect to market makers and gain access to their Depth of Market (table of orders for buying and selling currencies).

Forex Market History

We owe the emergence of the modern international currency market to the 37th President of the United States, Richard Nixon. It was he who abolished the gold standard and the possibility of converting American currency into gold.

The Bretton Woods Agreement was signed In 1944, which set the dollar standard. The American currency, in turn, turned out to be pegged to gold. However, this system lasted less than 30 years.

The Smithsonian Accord was signed In 1971 in response to the economic crisis of the time. In fact, it was this document that caused the subsequent devaluation of the American currency. The agreement was signed by 10 states at the Smithsonian Institution.

The agreement resulted in three key decisions that the American president described as historic. First and foremost, the criteria for revising the exchange rates were agreed. This led to the subsequent decline of the US dollar. At the same time, the value of other currencies of countries from the so-called “Group of Ten” rose against the dollar.

Another important result is the setting of a limit for exchange rate fluctuations. This made it possible to temporarily exclude floating exchange rates and their sharp fall.

Finally, the United States agreed to remove the 10% foreign duty surcharge. As a result of this agreement, the price of gold rose to $ 38 per ounce, exchange rate fluctuations increased to 2.25% in relation to par, and, finally, the value of many currencies changed.

Despite the fact that the Smithsonian Agreement played an important role, it was the Kingston Meeting of the IMF member countries that laid the foundation for the modern Forex market. Let's look at the main changes in the world monetary system:
- Cancellation of the exchange of dollars for gold. From this point on, no other currency is tied to the gold standard. Gold has become a commodity market instrument.
- IMF member countries have been able to choose their own exchange rate regime. In total, there are three main types: a free floating rate, limited (a corridor to some currencies and floating to others) and fixed.
- There is a new type of international means of payment: SDR (Special Drawing Rights).
- Countries have received more opportunities to conduct independent financial policies.

Forex Market Key Participants

Forex market participants include banks, various funds and financial organizations, brokers, dealing centers , private traders and investors. Let's take a closer look at each of the groups.

Central banks are among the key players in the currency market. Their main task is to maintain the stability of the national currency exchange rate and fulfill certain economic and financial goals.

In modern realities, Central Banks have several mandates, among them, for example, achieving certain inflation or labour market targets. The Central Banks achieve their goals, among other things, by targeting (controlling) the exchange rate levels in the international arena.

Central banks can influence the currency market through direct interventions, as well as through interest rate changes or verbal influence (when executives make comments in which they can point out too overvalued or, conversely, undervalued national currency).

Commercial banks are the main players in the international currency market. The vast majority of operations go through them. They are intermediaries between companies engaged in foreign economic activity. Commercial banks are also aggregators and providers of liquidity, that is, market makers.

Various financial organizations and funds can also be noted here. Their main goal is to increase clients' capital and work with assets. The best known is George Soros's Quantum. Also, notable organizations include “Omaha Oracle” Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway. Although the latter is unlikely to resort to investment strategies aimed at dealing with currencies. They definitely use Forex services to buy securities on local stock exchanges.

Dealers and brokers are another group of Forex market participants. These are companies providing services to private traders and investors. Here, clients can open trading accounts, make transactions using a variety of trading platforms, undergo training, work with analytics and much more.

What is the difference between a broker and a dealing center? The key is that the broker acts as an intermediary between the trader and the market. The dealing center is also a market maker, that is, it itself acts as a market for its clients.

However, at present there are almost no purely dealing centers. All companies, basically, work on a mixed principle. For clients with small trading accounts and turnovers, they act as a counterparty, and for larger traders and investors - as a broker, that is, an intermediary connecting traders with liquidity providers such as large international banks.

Traders and Basic Principles of Work in Financial Markets

As mentioned above, traders are also participants in the Forex market. They, among other things, maintain the level of liquidity, which is a positive point for currency trading. These market participants perform their trading operations through the trading terminal offered by the broker.

Before starting trading, a trader needs to complete some preparatory activities. First of all, you need to learn how to open a trading account and where to do so. To do this, you can familiarize yourself with the trading conditions of the broker NordFX and open your account with this company.

The Forex trading scheme is quite simple - you open a trading account, download the trader's terminal and start making trades. However, in order to trade Forex profitably, this is clearly not enough. You need to gain some knowledge, develop your own trading system, fund your trading account and carefully monitor your risks. At NordFX, transfers to a trading account can be made from bank cards and accounts, as well as through electronic payment systems and even cryptocurrencies.

As for the trading platform, NordFX experts have selected the most popular software in the professional community - MetaTrader (MT4). Moreover, such a platform is available both for desktop solutions (PCs and laptops) and for the most popular mobile operating systems (Android and iOS).

The MetaTrader terminal is one of the most functional solutions on the Forex market. It offers a rich toolkit not only for opening positions and tracking quotes, but also for analytical work, using trading robot advisors and even testing strategies.

Moreover, MetaTrader is written in an open source language, which allows you to create your own indicators, scripts and algorithmic programs (advisors) that will trade for you in a fully automatic mode.

To work successfully on Forex, a trader must be familiar with the following aspects:
- Types of market analysis.
- Work with analytical tools (graphics, indicators, news).
- Creation of one's own trading strategy and system.
- Learning the basics of money and risk management.
- The psychology of trading.

Trading is carried out with real money. But before you start, you can try your hand at a demo account . This is a special training account that allows a trader not only to study the trading terminal without any financial risk, but also to work out their own strategies.

You can open a demo account at the brokerage company NordFX. All quotes that come to the terminal on such a training account are real. That is, you will be able to try your hand at real market conditions.

Once you have completed your training, you need to top up your trading account and then you can get to work. As noted above, trading strategies are fundamental. They allow the trader to predict future asset fluctuations in the Forex market.

Such strategies can be both borrowed and created by the broker'sclient itself, if they have enough knowledge to do so. The most popular among traders are indicator trading tactics, based on indicators of technical analysis.

They are easy to find in the MT4 terminal. But you need to carefully study how each indicator works before using it. Today, four main groups of such instruments are distinguished:
- Trending.
- Oscillators.
- Indicators that reflect the volatility and strength of the trend.

Working with the MetaTrader trading platform, you can simultaneously use one or more indicators already built into it and add to it your own ones created by you or other traders.

Some Forex Trading Recommendations

It is not enough to have a good trading strategy for successful trading. It is very important to follow certain rules and recommendations that we give below.

Study the asset carefully.

Before you start working with a particular currency, you need to carefully study it. It is important to pay attention not only to the chart, but also to the schedule of important economic events and publications. Among them, for example, meetings of Central Banks, business activity indices, data on the labor market, statistics on inflation.

Even if you do not plan to engage in news trading in the future, you will need to know the exact time of the news release, since these are periods of sharp jumps in rates and increased volatility in the financial markets.

Work systematically.

The biggest problem for many novice traders is that they do not know how to work systematically. Even with a rather interesting and profitable strategy behind them, such market participants, under the influence of emotions, often deviate from its main provisions and open trades at random, intuitively. As a result, they lose their money easily and quickly.

In trading, discipline is one of the key factors. Traders who do not have it do not succeed. Those who strictly follow their trading system are much more likely to increase their deposit.

Controlling emotions.

Emotions and psychological state play a very important role in trading. You need to learn to rule out negative thoughts from your work. The mistake of most traders is that, having made one or several unsuccessful trades, they start trading in order to win back. It happens the other way around ­— under the influence of greed, a person opens one trade after another instead of stopping in time.

A professional trader makes decisions based solely on the situation on the chart, their own analysis and trading system. Emotions are completely excluded from their work. If you cannot cope with them, it is better to use the opportunities for automatic or social trading that the broker NordFX provides to its clients - this is the use of robot advisors in MT4 and PAMM accounts, and the automatic copying of trades of experienced traders in the Copy Trading system.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 31, 2021, 01:12:25 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 01-05, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The trade wars unleashed by the previous US President Trump have just seemingly subsided, but now we can "congratulate" everyone on the start of a new - currency - war. And it could prove equally exciting and unpredictable. This time, it was the European Central Bank, headed by Christine Lagarde, that declared hostilities. The adversary was, as you might guess, the US Federal Reserve System.
We have repeatedly written that the growth of the euro was caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The European currency rose against the dollar by more than 1700 points from March 20, 2020 to January 15, 2021. For the time being, the ECB leadership pretended that the problem lies not in the current level of the EUR/USD rate, but in the rate of its growth. But it turns out now that the current quotes are also of great importance for the EU economy, and that it would not be bad for them to go down.
The heads of the Banks of Finland and the Netherlands have started to speak actively about the fact that the ECB is very concerned about the euro exchange rate and should take decisive steps to stimulate inflation, hinting at a further decrease in interest rates. And Janet Yelen will definitely not like it. Recall that the former head of the Federal Reserve, and now the new US Treasury Secretary, Janet Yelen promised in every possible way to stop other countries' attempts to artificially reduce the rates of their currencies.
So, we can assume that the challenge has been posed and accepted, and the duel has begun. And right from the start, the EU has been let down... by its main support, Germany. It turns out that inflation in this country in January jumped from -0.7% to + 1.6%, which will certainly affect the growth of the total indicator of the Eurozone. Whether this will entail an accelerated curtailment of the ECB's quantitative stimulus (QE) program remains in question. The market is at a crossroads, which can be clearly seen from the EUR/USD quotes: the pair has been moving in a rather narrow sideways channel 1.2055-1.2185 for the last two and a half weeks. And even the fall of US stock indices on January 27-29 could not push it out of this corridor. As for the end of the week, the pair put the final point at 1.2135;

- GBP/USD. Last week, most analysts (65%) refused to share the bullish optimism of technical analysis. The reason is the poor performance of the British economy and the statement of the country's Prime Minister Boris Johnson warning that the third round of the lockdown could last well into the summer. This is forcing investors to not just revise their forecasts for the pound, but also to re-start discussing a scenario with negative Bank of England interest rates.
Looking at the chart of the pair, we can state that the bullish momentum has exhausted itself for the time being. Even fresh positive data on the UK labor market, published on January 26, did not help the pound. The pair cannot break above resistance 1.3750 for the second week in a row. Its volatility has also plummeted. If it exceeded 400 points a week at the end of December, the figure has now fallen to 150 points. As for the end of the five-day period, the final chord sounded in the zone of another strong resistance level, at 1.3700;

- USD/JPY. The medium-term trend for this pair was laid back at the end of March 2020, when it began to slide smoothly along the descending channel. There have been many discussions among experts, whether the pair will be able to reverse this trend and break through the upper limit of this channel.
It was only 30% of analysts who voted for such a development a week ago, but they were the ones who were right. The zone 104.70-105.00 was indicated as the target of the bulls, which was reached by the pair USD/JPY on Friday, January 29. Unlike the euro and the pound, it reacted quite actively to both positive reports on the labor market and the US trade balance. But the main impetus was given by the redistribution of financial flows caused by the fall of the American stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. As a result, the pair reached the 10-week high at 104.95, and ended the trading session slightly lower at 104.70;

- cryptocurrencies. We were certainly joking, but it seems the forecast of a fortune teller from New York is starting to come true. Last week we talked about Maren Altman, who determines the trends of the BTC/USD pair based on the stars movement. So, she absolutely accurately predicted the beginning of the January correction of bitcoin, since the trajectory of Mercury (the price of BTC) was to be crossed by Saturn (the limiting indicator) on that day. Her latest forecast spoke of "some favorable signals at the end of January."
For the past three weeks, the main cryptocurrency has been clinging to support in the $30,000 zone, trying to break even lower and thereby instilling pessimism in many experts and investors. For example, Scott Minerd, the director of investments at Guggenheim Partners, said that the bitcoin rate would not stay above $35 thousand or even above $30 thousand, since there is no institutional demand now that can support the quotes at these levels.
However, the end of the month showed that the fortune teller could win in a duel between a fortune teller and an expert, . Having found the local bottom at $29,200 on Wednesday January 27, the pair turned around and reached $38,100 on Friday January 29. But then another sharp reversal followed, and it dropped to the level of $33,500. So, the outcome of the fight at the time of writing the review remains in question.
Scott Minerd is certainly right that big professional investors are not digital currency fans at all. And what happened in the second half of 2020 can rather be considered an experiment on their part, which they went to, constantly looking back at the reaction of regulators. But the director of Guggenheim Partners may not have taken into account that, in the absence of institutions, retail investors can also move bitcoin up, as was the case in 2017. Moreover, if then they were Newbie trader enthusiasts, now the middle generation has joined them.
A study conducted by specialists of the Wirex platform together with the company Stellar Development Foundation showed that most of cryptocurrency investors are not at all Newbie trader millennials, as the case was recently, but people over 45 years old. Investors aged 25 to 45 are only 22%.
The active buyback of bitcoin after the drawdown below $30,000 and the absence of panic sell-off showed that many investors still believe in the growth of bitcoin to new heights. The total capitalization of the crypto market once again broke the psychological mark of $1 trillion over the past seven days, rising from $0.933 trillion to $1.08. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it also began to grow along with the growth of quotations. If at the end of last week the index was at around 40 points, it climbed to 77  on Friday, January 29. This is already close to the overbought zone, but the maximum values are still far away. Recall that the index values were constantly in the zone 95-98 out of 100 possible during the rally in December - the first week of January.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The currency war referred to in the first part of the review is not a matter of one week and not one month, it can stretch for years. The US economy “shrank” by 3.5% in 2020. And this is not only the first negative indicator since 2009, but also the largest drop since the end of World War II. However, investors expect a low interest rate and huge cash injections into the US economy ($900 billion from Donald Trump and $1,900 billion from Joe Biden), together with successful vaccination against COVID-19, will help it return to growth in 2021. Although, this will happen gradually, incrementally.
In contrast to the United States, support for the Eurozone economy was much more modest - €750 billion, therefore, the Eurozone GDP growth will be more moderate (according to forecasts + 1.5%). And the rate of vaccination is lower here than overseas. If we add to this the efforts of the ECB to weaken the common European currency, we can expect that the EUR/USD pair will be under certain pressure. But, as already mentioned, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yelen will make every effort to prevent this from happening.
After two and a half weeks of sideways movement of the EUR/USD pair in the channel 1.2055-1.2185, technical indicators are in confusion, giving no clear signals in either direction. As for the experts, most of them (65%) expect that in February, despite all, the dollar will continue to lose its positions and the pair will return to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone. The target is the January high of 1.2350, the nearest resistance is 1.2185. The nearest support is 1.2055, the main goal of the bears is the zone 1.1800-1.1900.
As for important economic events, there will be a lot of them in the coming week. Data on business activity and the labor market in the US will be published on Monday February 01 and Wednesday February 03. We will find out preliminary data on GDP On Tuesday February 02, and on the Eurozone consumer market on the next day. Finally, on February 05, on the first Friday of the month, data on the number of new jobs created in the United States outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will traditionally be released. This indicator is predicted to show an increase from -140K to +85K, which may lead to a short-term strengthening of the dollar, although this is often taken into account in advance by the market;

- GBP/USD. We will be waiting for a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday February 04, where questions will be resolved about the planned volume of asset purchases under the programme to support the economy, as well as the interest rate reduction. Will Britain's regulator surprise investors? According to our forecasts, it is unlikely. It is likely that the volume of purchases of bonds on the open market will remain the same - ? 895 billion, and the rate will remain at 0.1%. Therefore, the market will wait for any signals, explicit or implicit, from the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, whose speeches are scheduled for February 04 and 05.
As for analysts, 70% of them believe that the GBP/USD pair will still manage to break through the resistance at 1.3750 and rise to the height of 1.3800 for at least a short time. Graphical analysis and 85% of oscillators on D1, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this. At the same time, 60% of experts, along with graphical analysis, believe that after a dash to the north, the pair will return to the zone 1.3615-1.3700. The next support level is around 1.3500;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (70%), supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair's movement to the south will continue. However, now it has changed echelon, and the upper border of the medium-term descending channel will now become a support line for it. The main resistance level is 105.00, support is at 104.00, 103.55 and 103.00 levels.
The remaining 30% of analysts expect that the pair will be able to rise even higher and reach the zone of 105.70-106.10.
Among the trend indicators, 100% look up at ?4 and 85% at D1. As for the oscillators, 75% on H4 and 60% on D1 are colored green, the rest give signals that the pair is overbought;
(https://i.imgur.com/AkXJt3g.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the January drawdown is now fully redeemed, and the BTC/USD pair is ready to grow to $50,000. Those who wanted to take profits and transfer their crypto assets to fiat have already done so. And now the bulls are regaining strength, forming another upward momentum. Central bank interest rates, which are close to zero, the huge scale of fiscal stimulus, putting pressure on the dollar in the first place, and stock market fluctuations, drawing attention to Bitcoin as a hedge asset, can still act as arguments for the rally to continue.
It is likely that 2021 will be the scene of a struggle between the crypto market and regulators. And if we set aside the optimism of crypto fans, it remains questionable whether digital assets can seriously strengthen their positions.
So, for example, Bank of Singapore, which is one of the largest Asian financial organizations, called bitcoin a promising instrument that can not only compete with gold, but also shift it from the first place on investments security. At the same time, the bank's experts believe that "we are unlikely to see widespread adoption of bitcoin soon, since regulators simply will not allow users to independently decide how transactions with millions or even billions of dollars will be performed." Governments are making it increasingly clear that they will not allow attacks on their main instrument of power - national currencies.
As for the second most important cryptocurrency, the market is waiting for the launch of futures on Ethereum. It is this factor that allowed the ETH/USD pair to hold its positions even in the days of January, when bitcoin sought to break through support in the $30,000 zone.
Recall that one of the factors that allowed bitcoin to surpass the $20,000 mark at the end of 2017 was the launch of futures for this cryptocurrency by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). And now, on February 8, 2021, the same exchange is awaiting regulatory approval of the application for listing Ethereum futures, which may lead to a further increase in its quotations.
And in conclusion, another funny life hack from the life of cryptocurrencies. Last time we talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin prices by observing the movement of the planets. Now we are talking about another resident of the United States, Simon Berne, who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW i8 sports car. The farm receives energy from the car battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter. The battery power of the BMW i8 is 3500W, while the mining plant only consumes 1500W. According to Berne, this is a great way for him to make money even while traveling.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 03, 2021, 03:16:39 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/ZpRl8ra.jpg)

- Bitcoin price could drop again ahead of Chinese New Year. According to a number of experts, this time the price of the main coin will be affected by the actions of small investors who will begin to transfer crypto assets to fiat to buy New Year's gifts.
Currently, it is in China that the bulk of the owners of bitcoin wallets with savings of up to 10 thousand dollars are concentrated. “Even if institutional investors do not react to the possible strengthening of the dollar and stock markets, small investors will definitely start withdrawing funds before the holidays. The New Year is usually celebrated very lavishly in China. In addition, the charts for the past few years show that exactly on the eve of the holidays, the capitalization of bitcoin is greatly decreasing, the specialists of the investment company Stack Funds explain the situation.

- According to Cryptofeed.news, a bug was found in Apple devices, due to which attackers can gain access to cryptocurrency wallets. Pete Kim, chief engineer of the Coinbase trading platform, noted that the bug represents the ability to activate remote access mode from other devices. This means that criminals who can enable this option will be able to get to banking apps or wallets.
“So far there is no evidence that the bug could have been used to steal digital assets, but it’s better just not to bring it up,” explained Kim. Apple has not yet commented on this software flaw.

- The first cryptocurrency is on the cusp of widespread adoption by the traditional market. This was stated by the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk during a conversation on the Clubhouse media platform. According to him, many friends urged him to buy bitcoin. And today he has to admit that he was "late to appear at the party."
“I'm a bitcoin supporter. I believe the financial world is close to its wide acceptance. But I have no opinion about other cryptocurrencies, "- Forbes quotes the words of the billionaire.
Elon Musk also promised that he would be more careful with his comments because of the great impact they have on the market. Recall that he has recently changed his Twitter profile description to "#bitcoin" with the cryptocurrency logo, after which the coin's price jumped sharply, exceeding $37,000.

- On February 2, MicroStrategy, an analytical software company, bought an additional 295 BTC for a total of $10 million. The average purchase price was $33,808. In total, the company acquired 71,079 BTC starting from August 2020, spending $1.145 billion on it. At the time of writing, the total value of bitcoins in MicroStrategy's reserves is $ 2.55 billion, that is, its return on investment (ROI) in six months was about 120%.

- The US authorities have accused a California resident of running an illegal cryptocurrency exchange and money laundering. Hugo Mejia, 49, from Ontario reportedly launched his service in May 2018. He advertised the platform on the Internet and met with clients in person in a cafe and corresponded with them using encrypted messages. During this period, Mejia's clients exchanged more than $13m worth of assets with his help.
From May 2019 to March 2020, the manager communicated several times with a front buyer who informed him he was an Australian drug dealer. In total, the front client conducted five transactions worth more than $250,000, after which Mejia was arrested. He will appear in the U.S. District Court in March and faces up to 25 years in prison.

- The number of unique active BTC addresses reached 22.3 million in January amid growth in network activity and the rate of the first cryptocurrency, which rose to $42,000 on January 8. “This is the highest rate in the history of bitcoin to date,” say analysts at Glassnode. The January surge in activity surpasses the previous record of 21 million active addresses in December 2017, their number has not fallen below 10 million per month since then.

- Specialists of the analytical platform CryptoQuant noted in recent days the movement of large volumes of bitcoins. 15,200 BTC was withdrawn from the Coinbase exchange alone at a cost of about $500 million. Coins were withdrawn in batches from 1,100 BTC to 4,400 BTC, which is a rare occurrence. Usually, crypto exchanges do not split transfers in this way when moving coins between their own wallets, as this leads to an increase in overhead costs.
According to the founder of CryptoQuant, Ki Yong Joo, bitcoins went to custodian wallets, on which only incoming transactions were noticed. “These are probably over-the-counter deals of institutional investors. And I consider this to be the strongest bullish signal,” he wrote.

- Visa CEO Alfred Kelly spoke about plans for cryptocurrency payments during a teleconference on the company's financial activities. He noted that the company is ready to make such payments more secure. Visa plans to work with wallets and exchanges so that users can not only buy crypto assets, but also cash them in and make purchases in fiat currency without prior conversions.
Visa currently distinguishes between two classes of cryptoassets: assets like bitcoin - digital gold, and assets backed by fiat currencies, including stablecoins and central bank digital currencies. “It goes without saying that if a particular digital currency becomes a recognized means of exchange, there is no reason why we cannot add it to our network, which already supports over 160 currencies today,” concluded Kelly.

- According to a report from research firm Binance Research, bitcoin remains the leading cryptocurrency as 65% of users have it in their investment portfolio. This figure was obtained by a survey of 61,000 users from 178 countries. The document, called the 2021 Global Cryptocurrency User Index, says that 52% of users consider cryptocurrency to be a source of current income, while the rest own digital assets, considering them part of a long-term investment strategy.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 04, 2021, 03:56:35 PM
January 2021 Results: NordFX's Most Successful Traders Helped by Bitcoin and Gold


NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2021.

The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, whose profit amounted to 83.598 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD) trades.

The second place in the rating of the most successful traders of the month is taken by a client from China, account No.1416xxx. Their profit was 40.902 USD, and was received on transactions with the same gold and bitcoin, as well as with a currency that is quite exotic for Chinese traders, the South African rand (USD/ZAR).     

The third place on the January podium went to the representative of India (account No. 1518xxx) whose result of 40.217 USD was achieved mainly due to transactions with two cryptocurrency pairs, BTC/USD and ETH/USD. It should be noted that this trader occupied the third place in the previous, December TOP-3 as well, and their total profit for two months has amounted to almost 80 thousand USD.

As for traders focusing exclusively on Forex currency pairs, here the leader was a resident of Sri Lanka (account number 1528xxx), who earned 33.684 USD on transactions with the British pound - GBP/AUD, GBP/CAD and GBP/USD. 

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading in January the largest increase of 382% was shown by the sab aq4x signal, however, its maximum drawdown was more than impressive, 74.15%. But KennyFXPRO  demonstrates a small, but stable growth with a very moderate drawdown (growth in January 34.57% with a maximum drawdown of 12.30%). We can also note another non-aggressive signal - NordFX Pro (increase 24.08%, drawdown 11.31%);
- in the PAMM service, the manager Nacarino achieved the maximum profit for the month (increase 82.82%, drawdown 77.42%). The minimum drawdown of only 1% with a gain of 12.53% was shown by a trader with the nickname COPY CAT 01.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 9.461, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx;
- next is also a partner from China, account number 1175xxx, who received 6.124 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from Sri Lanka, account No. 1483xxx, who received 6.123 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 06, 2021, 01:42:27 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 08 - 12, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar has been growing throughout the week, fueled by optimism about the imminent recovery of the US economy. The incidence of coronavirus is down sharply: in just three weeks since the peak, the 7-day moving average has dropped by almost 50%. And a successful vaccination, complete with a new economic aid package, can generally lead to an economic boom in the country.
And that is where the confusion begins, which has puzzled many economists. With the outbreak of the pandemic at the end of last February, an inverse correlation has clearly emerged between the dollar and stock indices. After an initial sharp collapse, thanks to fiscal incentives (QE), lower interest rates and pumping the US economy with cheap money, stock indices, S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, went up, and the DXY dollar index went down.
And here came 2021, and everything turned upside down. Against the backdrop of good economic data and expectations of a new injection of financial "vaccine" for almost $2 trillion, the growth of risk sentiment and stock indices continued. But in parallel, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds and the dollar grew.
“But it shouldn't be that way,” many experts exclaim. A soft monetary policy and pumping liquidity into the market should lead to a weakening of the currency, but not vice versa. Or maybe it's not the dollar's strength at all, but the weakness of its competitors? First of all, the euro?
Starting on Monday at 1.2135, the EUR/USD pair groped the local bottom at 1.1950 on the morning of Friday 05 February, breaking through 1.2000 support for the first time in 10 weeks. After that, the correlation between the stock market and the dollar once again changed its sign, from plus to minus this time: the S&P500 continued to grow, while the DXY began to fall. As a result, the EUR/USD pair went up again and finished the five-day period at 1.2050;

- GBP/USD. We predicted that at its meeting on Thursday 04 February, the Bank of England would leave both the volume of bond purchases of ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1% unchanged. And so it happened, no changes in monetary policy took place. But at the same time, in just a couple of hours the pound has strengthened sharply against the dollar, jumping up 135 points, from 1.3565 to 1.3700.
The whole point was not in the results of the meeting of the Bank, but in market expectations. The Bank's committee unanimously decided to leave key parameters of its policy unchanged. Some investors expected that a split in the ranks of the Committee would happen, and that a number of its members would support the introduction of negative rates. The split did not occur, the result of the vote was 9:0.
A negative rate, no doubt, would have led to a collapse of the pound, but the situation was saved by the optimism of officials regarding the growth of the UK economy. In their opinion, thanks to vaccination, the country's GDP will reach pre-COVID indicators during the current year, and the consumer price index will rise to 2% at the beginning of 2022.
The Bank of England's unanimous decision to abandon negative rates for the near future should encourage capital inflows into the country. And this was clearly demonstrated by the GBP/USD pair, which continued its growth on Friday February 05, and ended the weekly session at 1.3735;   

- USD/JPY. The movement of this pair in most cases depends on what is happening not in Japan, but in the United States, on where the DXY dollar index, stock indices, as well as the yield of American state bonds are moving. This happened last week as well.
Back on January 27, the pair broke through the upper border of the medium-term descending channel, along which it had been descending since the end of last March and went up sharply. And although the overwhelming majority of oscillators and trend indicators on both ?4 and D1 indicated an uptrend, only 30% of experts voted for further growth among analysts. But it was their forecast that turned out to be absolutely accurate: at the high on Friday, February 05, the pair reached a height of 105.75, after which a correction followed and then a finish at 105.35;

- cryptocurrencies. We noted in our last review that the bulls are gaining strength again, forming another upward momentum in bitcoin. It also said that the main problem of the crypto market in 2021 will be regulators, whose goal is to take this segment under their maximum control.
Starting from the second half of 2020. institutional investors have become the main drivers of growth. In addition to specialized funds like Grayscale Investments and technology companies such as MicroStrategy, Harvard, Yale and Michigan universities have begun to acquire cryptocurrencies, using their endowment funds for this. Even conservative giants such as US government pension funds like CalPERS have been seen buying digital assets. However, due to regulatory issues, these institutions are acting very cautiously, investing in bitcoin, for now, very small amounts in their scale.
Recall that as soon as the BTC/USD pair renewed its all-time high on January 8, rising above $42,000, and the crypto market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion, the head of the European regulator Christine Lagarde immediately stated that this was a very speculative asset, which is used to conduct a rather "strange business" and money laundering activities. The new US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also joined her from across the ocean, according to her, "cryptocurrencies are of particular concern, and many of them are used to finance illegal activities." Both Lagarde and Yelen indicated that there is a need for serious regulation of this market. However, both kept silent about the main reason for such concern. Although, it is clear that governments are most concerned about the loss of their control over monetary resources.
Be that as it may, but after the statements of the President of the ECB and the US Treasury Secretary, the price of bitcoin fell below $30,000. However, by the end of January, the market came to its senses, and the main coin rate went up again.
On Friday evening, February 05, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $38,000 zone, and the total capitalization of the crypto market hits highs, rising to the level of $1.16 trillion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it reached 81, and although it is in the overbought zone, it is still far from the maximum values.
According to Glassnode specialists, the number of unique active BTC addresses reached 22.3 million in January. “This is the highest rate in the history of bitcoin to date,” analysts say. The January surge in activity beats the previous record of 21 million active addresses in December 2017.
BTC miners also showed indicators close to the record ones. Despite a 30% drop in the price of bitcoin, January was a very good month for this "strange business". Mining the main cryptocurrency brought them $1.1 billion (the maximum of $1.2 billion was recorded in December 2017). The production of Ethereum showed a record result of $0.83 billion, exceeding the figure of December 2020 by 120%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So far, the situation seems to be still in favor of the dollar. In anticipation of the explosive growth of the US economy, investors are ready to turn a blind eye to another increase in the country's national debt, which will follow the next package of economic stimuli. The yields on long-term treasuries are growing, and the spread between US and European bonds is growing, strengthening the dollar, and putting pressure on the European currency. Thus, the yield of 10-year American state bonds has already reached about 1.15%, and the growth potential has not yet been exhausted. Here you can also recall the statements of Christine Lagarde that the ECB is not at all against the weakening of the euro.
The above has led to the fact that 70% of experts, supported by 85% of oscillators, 70% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1, agreed that the dollar will continue to grow in the coming days, and the EUR/USD pair to fall. Support levels are 1.1950, 1.1885, 1.1800 and 1.1750. However, the situation is changing with the transition from weekly to monthly forecast and here it is already 60% of experts together with graphical analysis who are waiting for the pair to return to the zone 1.2200-1.2300. The target is the January high of 1.2350, the nearest resistance is 1.2175.
As for important economic events in the coming week, we can note data on consumer markets in Germany and the United States, which will be released on Wednesday February 10;
(https://i.imgur.com/G1eVMNX.jpg)

- GBP/USD. Will the market still be able to maintain its bullish optimism about the British currency for some time? 65% of analysts believe that at least briefly the pair will still succeed, breaking through the resistance of 1.3750, to rise to the height of 1.3800, and possibly 25-50 points higher. Graphical analysis, 85% of oscillators as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this. However, 15% of oscillators are already giving clear signals about the pair being overbought.
The remaining 35% of experts consider the 1.3700-1.3750 zone as an insurmountable obstacle, according to them, having broken through the support at 1.3700, the pair will first go down 100 points and then reach the 1.3485-1.3500 zone.
Among the events to which attention should be paid, of interest are the speech of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey on Wednesday, February 10, and the publication of GDP data for the IV quarter of 2020 on Friday, February 12;   

- USD/JPY. Most experts (70%) supported by graphical analysis on D1, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators, expect the pair to continue to grow at least up to 106.00-106.25 zone. The next goal is 107.00. The nearest resistance is 105.75.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the level of 104.00, and graphical analysis on H4 predicts an even greater drop, to the low of January 21, 103.30. Supports are at 104.75, 104.00 and 103.50 levels.

 - cryptocurrencies. What is good, and what is bad.
The support of cryptocurrencies from large institutional investors is, of course, good. It can provide further growth for bitcoin. However, the fact that the crypto market now largely depends on the sentiments of this rather small group, and that, in turn, on the sentiments of government officials, is bad, and can lead to a collapse of the quotes. A clear example is the January drop in the BTC/USD pair by 30%.
However, government actions can not only put pressure on the crypto market, but also push it up. Thus, US President Joe Biden has confirmed his readiness for a new stimulus package for almost $2 trillion. And this is good, since with an almost 100% probability, some of these funds will flow to the digital asset market.
But, for example, is Chinese New Year good or bad? It is definitely good for people, a fun holiday, gifts, fireworks... But, according to a number of experts, on the eve of this joyful event, the value of bitcoin may fall again. Moreover, in this case, the price of the main coin is threatened not by the central banks, but small investors, who will begin to transfer their crypto assets to fiat for the purchase of New Year's gifts.
Currently, it is in China that the bulk of the owners of bitcoin wallets with savings of up to 10 thousand dollars are concentrated. And, according to the specialists of the investment company Stack Funds, “since it is customary to celebrate the New Year in China very splendidly, small investors will definitely begin to withdraw funds before the holidays. In addition, - they explain, “charts over the past few years show that it is in the run-up to the holidays that the capitalization of bitcoin is greatly reduced.” We do not have long to wait for either a confirmation or a refutation of this prediction: the New Year in China is this Friday, February 12, and the holidays will last from February 11 to 17.
Now about Ethereum. This leading altcoin continues to deliver impressive results. It has increased in price by 130% since the beginning of the year, and its increase was 448% in 2020. The main impact on such dynamics is the expectation of the launch of futures on it on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is scheduled for Monday, February 8.
The forecasts for this event are mixed. Optimists (and they are the majority) recall that the launch of bitcoin futures on the CME allowed this cryptocurrency to break the $20,000 mark at the end of 2017. Pessimists say that it was this event that marked the beginning of the crypto winter of 2018. So, the question of whether futures is good or bad remains open.
In December 2020, when the BTC/USD pair reached its previous high of $20,000 and ETH/USD was still very far from its similar mark, we noted a significant potential for the Ethereum growth. Now a similar situation is observed with another token, Litecoin, which we have not thought about for a long time.   
This coin appeared in October 2011, becoming an early fork of bitcoin, from a technical point of view is almost identical to it. Litecoin's all-time high of $370 was recorded on December 19, 2017. Then crypto winter came and, a year later, the price of the coin dropped to $20, having lost almost 95% of its value. At the moment, the quotes of the LTC/USD pair are at the level of $155, which is more than twice below its historical maximum, which can lead to its growth. Moreover, Litecoin even surpasses the main cryptocurrency in some important parameters. So, for example, the transaction speed with it is four times higher than with bitcoin.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 10, 2021, 03:28:44 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/nUDzG2D.jpg)

- Forbes compiled a list of the wealthiest representatives of business in the field of cryptocurrency, following the results of 2020. It is headed by the CEO of the Coinbase crypto-exchange Brian Armstrong with $6.5 billion, followed by the head of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange Sam Bankman-Freed with $4.5 billion and the co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen - $2.9 billion.
The ranking  also includes: the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor - $ 2 billion, CEO of the Binance exchange Changpeng "CZ" Zhao - $1.9 billion, the founders of the Gemini exchange, the Winklevoss brothers - $1.6 billion each, founder of the venture capital company Digital Currency Group Barry Silbert - $1.5 billion , co-founder and former CTO of Ripple Jed McCaleb - $1.4 billion, venture capitalist Tim Draper - $1.1 billion and co-founder of blockchain startup Bloq Matthew Roszak - $1 billion.
When preparing the rating, the Forbes magazine took into account not only the value of the digital assets of the persons involved, but also their traditional assets, including the shares of various companies.

- According to Reuters, the German prosecutor's office is unable to access a wallet with more than 1,700 bitcoins with a total value of about $75 million. The account holder, who was found to be a fraud, refuses to testify against himself and provide access keys. Currently, law enforcement officers are looking for ways to "get close" to these assets through exchanges and wallet operators in order to return them to the victims of the criminal.
The fraudster was sentenced to two years in prison for installing phishing software on third-party computers, with which he deducted funds from the victims' accounts and transferred them to his own wallet. The prosecutor explained that the offender was offered mitigation of punishment if he provided data on the whereabouts of the coins, but he refused. The size of the criminal's assets has significantly increased against the background of the latest bitcoin rally, and it is possible that he is going to use them after his release.

- American children's charity Songs of Love created Superhero Billy Bitcoin to boost interest in their work. Crypto donations to such non-profit organizations in the United States are tax-free. “Donating in a cryptocurrency like bitcoin is even more efficient than cash. You don't have to pay capital gains tax and can deduct that amount from your taxes,” said Songs of Love. The fund accepts donations in 22 digital assets, and the Superhero Billy Bitcoin is dedicated to supporting children with serious illnesses.

- The price of bitcoin could rise to $100,000 as early as the end of 2021 if other companies follow Tesla's lead, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview to Bloomberg . Elon Musk's company announced the investment of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin on Monday, February 8. Tesla admitted that in the future they will integrate the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment for their products.
Novogratz called Elon Musk a genius in his decision to listen to people and evaluate the interests of Newbie trader people. According to the billionaire, other companies will invest in the first cryptocurrency to hedge inflation risks. “You'll see that every company in America will soon start doing the same,” stated Mike Novogratz.

- Due to the shortage of discrete graphics cards in the market, gaming laptops have become popular among Chinese Ethereum miners. As calculated by the Techarp portal, the payback period for such a computer costing from $1000 is approximately three and a half months.
One laptop with a RTX 3060 video card is able to get 0.00053 ETH ($0.92 at the moment) within two hours. That is, the mining will amount to 2.3 ETH (over $4000) for the year, and a farm of 20 laptops at current prices and taking into account the cost of electricity in China will bring more than $76,800 in profit.

- North Korea has been able to upgrade its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by using funds stolen in cyberattacks, to finance. According to the Associated Press citing UN experts, these attacks mainly targeted financial institutions and cryptocurrency platforms, and the total amount of the digital assets stolen in the period from 2019 to November 2020 is more than $316 million. Experts say North Korea continues to launder cryptocurrencies stolen by its hackers mostly through Chinese over-the-counter platforms.

- The authorities arrested a 37-year-old Wisconsin resident on charges of attempting to arrange a bespoke homicide. This is stated in the message of the US Department of Justice. The woman found the killer on the darknet, offering to pay for his "work" in cryptocurrency, and provided him with a phone number, place of work and a description of the alleged victim.
Journalists of one of the media learned about the upcoming crime while working on material about transactions in the darknet. They found evidence of a Bitcoin transaction, as well as a screenshot of a wallet with $5,633 in cryptocurrency, after which the reporters contacted the law enforcement. Now the alleged customer faces up to 10 years in prison.

- One of Mexico's richest people (the fortune of $11.7 billion) and founder of Grupo Salinas group of companies Ricardo Salinas Pliego added a Bitcoin hashtag to his Twitter account description. Recall that the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk did the same in January, after which the asset rose to $38,000.
Earlier Pliego admitted in a Cointelegraph commentary that he first bought digital gold in 2013. He sold the asset at $17,000 during a bull rally in 2017 and called the bitcoin “the best investment of all time.”

- Specialists of financial and investment company Guggenheim Partners said that the value of bitcoin could reach $600,000. According to the company's investment director, Scott Minerd, everything will depend on the number of coins in the public domain. “Cryptocurrency can rise to very high values. It is possible that we are talking about 400 or even $600,000 per coin. We have been studying the asset for almost ten years, so we understand how it will behave. Bitcoin used to be unjustified for institutional investors, but now everything has changed,” Minerd said.
According to the specialist, the concern is caused by the rapid growth of the asset in the past few weeks. It is possible that we are talking about speculation, in which institutional investors capable of large investments to manage the value of the coin are involved. At present, bitcoin is in a difficult situation, as the departure of large investors will lead to a return of the negative trend. According to Minerd, such a development is unlikely, but it should definitely be taken into account.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Scoll on February 13, 2021, 01:32:00 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/nUDzG2D.jpg)

- Forbes compiled a list of the wealthiest representatives of business in the field of cryptocurrency, following the results of 2020. It is headed by the CEO of the Coinbase crypto-exchange Brian Armstrong with $6.5 billion, followed by the head of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange Sam Bankman-Freed with $4.5 billion and the co-founder of Ripple Chris Larsen - $2.9 billion.
The ranking  also includes: the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor - $ 2 billion, CEO of the Binance exchange Changpeng "CZ" Zhao - $1.9 billion, the founders of the Gemini exchange, the Winklevoss brothers - $1.6 billion each, founder of the venture capital company Digital Currency Group Barry Silbert - $1.5 billion , co-founder and former CTO of Ripple Jed McCaleb - $1.4 billion, venture capitalist Tim Draper - $1.1 billion and co-founder of blockchain startup Bloq Matthew Roszak - $1 billion.
When preparing the rating, the Forbes magazine took into account not only the value of the digital assets of the persons involved, but also their traditional assets, including the shares of various companies.

- According to Reuters, the German prosecutor's office is unable to access a wallet with more than 1,700 bitcoins with a total value of about $75 million. The account holder, who was found to be a fraud, refuses to testify against himself and provide access keys. Currently, law enforcement officers are looking for ways to "get close" to these assets through exchanges and wallet operators in order to return them to the victims of the criminal.
The fraudster was sentenced to two years in prison for installing phishing software on third-party computers, with which he deducted funds from the victims' accounts and transferred them to his own wallet. The prosecutor explained that the offender was offered mitigation of punishment if he provided data on the whereabouts of the coins, but he refused. The size of the criminal's assets has significantly increased against the background of the latest bitcoin rally, and it is possible that he is going to use them after his release.

- American children's charity Songs of Love created Superhero Billy Bitcoin to boost interest in their work. Crypto donations to such non-profit organizations in the United States are tax-free. “Donating in a cryptocurrency like bitcoin is even more efficient than cash. You don't have to pay capital gains tax and can deduct that amount from your taxes,” said Songs of Love. The fund accepts donations in 22 digital assets, and the Superhero Billy Bitcoin is dedicated to supporting children with serious illnesses.

- The price of bitcoin could rise to $100,000 as early as the end of 2021 if other companies follow Tesla's lead, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz said in an interview to Bloomberg . Elon Musk's company announced the investment of $1.5 billion in Bitcoin on Monday, February 8. Tesla admitted that in the future they will integrate the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment for their products.
Novogratz called Elon Musk a genius in his decision to listen to people and evaluate the interests of Newbie trader people. According to the billionaire, other companies will invest in the first cryptocurrency to hedge inflation risks. “You'll see that every company in America will soon start doing the same,” stated Mike Novogratz.

- Due to the shortage of discrete graphics cards in the market, gaming laptops have become popular among Chinese Ethereum miners. As calculated by the Techarp portal, the payback period for such a computer costing from $1000 is approximately three and a half months.
One laptop with a RTX 3060 video card is able to get 0.00053 ETH ($0.92 at the moment) within two hours. That is, the mining will amount to 2.3 ETH (over $4000) for the year, and a farm of 20 laptops at current prices and taking into account the cost of electricity in China will bring more than $76,800 in profit.

- North Korea has been able to upgrade its nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles by using funds stolen in cyberattacks, to finance. According to the Associated Press citing UN experts, these attacks mainly targeted financial institutions and cryptocurrency platforms, and the total amount of the digital assets stolen in the period from 2019 to November 2020 is more than $316 million. Experts say North Korea continues to launder cryptocurrencies stolen by its hackers mostly through Chinese over-the-counter platforms.

- The authorities arrested a 37-year-old Wisconsin resident on charges of attempting to arrange a bespoke homicide. This is stated in the message of the US Department of Justice. The woman found the killer on the darknet, offering to pay for his "work" in cryptocurrency, and provided him with a phone number, place of work and a description of the alleged victim.
Journalists of one of the media learned about the upcoming crime while working on material about transactions in the darknet. They found evidence of a Bitcoin transaction, as well as a screenshot of a wallet with $5,633 in cryptocurrency, after which the reporters contacted the law enforcement. Now the alleged customer faces up to 10 years in prison.

- One of Mexico's richest people (the fortune of $11.7 billion) and founder of Grupo Salinas group of companies Ricardo Salinas Pliego added a Bitcoin hashtag to his Twitter account description. Recall that the founder of Tesla and SpaceX Elon Musk did the same in January, after which the asset rose to $38,000.
Earlier Pliego admitted in a Cointelegraph commentary that he first bought digital gold in 2013. He sold the asset at $17,000 during a bull rally in 2017 and called the bitcoin “the best investment of all time.”

- Specialists of financial and investment company Guggenheim Partners said that the value of bitcoin could reach $600,000. According to the company's investment director, Scott Minerd, everything will depend on the number of coins in the public domain. “Cryptocurrency can rise to very high values. It is possible that we are talking about 400 or even $600,000 per coin. We have been studying the asset for almost ten years, so we understand how it will behave. Bitcoin used to be unjustified for institutional investors, but now everything has changed,” Minerd said.
According to the specialist, the concern is caused by the rapid growth of the asset in the past few weeks. It is possible that we are talking about speculation, in which institutional investors capable of large investments to manage the value of the coin are involved. At present, bitcoin is in a difficult situation, as the departure of large investors will lead to a return of the negative trend. According to Minerd, such a development is unlikely, but it should definitely be taken into account.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Long time no see Little Kim.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 14, 2021, 03:02:00 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 15 - 19, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. It often happens that monthly forecasts come true faster than weekly ones. That was what happened this time as well. Recall that only 30% of experts expected the EUR/USD pair to grow in the weekly perspective. In the transition to the monthly forecast, those were in majority already, 60%.
We started talking about the paradoxes of the relationship between stock indices and the dollar seven days ago. With the outbreak of the pandemic at the end of last February, an inverse correlation was clearly visible between them: thanks to fiscal stimulus (QE), lower interest rates and pumping the US economy with cheap money, the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices went up, and the DXY dollar index - way down. And that was logical.
And here came 2021, and everything turned upside down. Against the backdrop of good economic data and expectations of a new injection of financial "vaccine" for almost $2 trillion, the growth of risk sentiment and stock indices continued. But in parallel, the yield of long-term US Treasury bonds and the dollar grew.
But the surprises with overturns did not end there. Based on the same fiscal incentives and rapid vaccination in the United States, Wall Street Journal experts are raising their forecasts for US GDP for 2021 from 4.3% to 4.9%. In Europe, the opposite is true: there are a lot of delays with vaccination, the EU countries, one after another, are tightening anti-covid measures once again, there is no end in sight to lockdowns. As a result, the European Commission lowers its forecast for the Eurozone economy to 3.9%. But at the same time, the euro is growing, and the American currency is falling.
According to a number of experts, it's all about the long-term policy of the US Fed, which is not going to wind down the QE program until the end of 2021 and will not raise interest rates on the dollar earlier than 2023. This should lead to the recovery of not only the American but also the global economy, including the EU, making the euro a reasonably attractive currency for some, primarily Chinese, investors. China's interests in Europe are great, and appetites are constantly growing, which supports the demand for a pan-European currency.   
As a result, having started at 1.2050, the EUR/USD pair rose by 100 pips and reached a weekly high at 1.2150 on Thursday, February 11. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 1.2120;

- GBP/USD. The released macro statistics looks quite contradictory. Due to the coronavirus pandemic, investment cuts and Brexit problems, UK GDP contracted 9.9% which is a record drop in more than 300 years. At the same time, monthly and quarterly GDP were better than expectations. GDP growth in Q4 2020 amounted to +1%. Industrial production figures were lower than forecasted, but the trade balance report pleased investors.
Solid monetary policy of the Bank of England, positive interest rate, and the first in Europe and third in the world (after Israel and the UAE) in terms of vaccination rates also played on the side of the pound. At the time of writing this review, 20.67% of the country's population was already vaccinated (the figure in the USA is 14.02%).
Recall that the majority of analysts (65%) also sided with the British currency. The main forecast assumed that the pair would succeed, having broken through the resistance at 1.3750, to rise to the height of 1.3800, and possibly 25-50 points higher. And so it all happened: the high of the week was fixed at 1.3865, and the last chord of the GBP/USD pair set at 1.3850.
 
- USD/JPY. The movement of this pair in most cases depends on what is happening not in Japan, but in the United States, on where stock indices, as well as the yield of American state bonds and the DXY dollar index are moving. This happened last week as well.
DXY climbed to 91.21, USD/JPY grew to 105.66 on February 8. On February 10, the dollar index dropped to 90.26, followed by a bottom at 104.40. On February 12, we see an increase in the DXY to 90.71 and an increase in USD/JPY to 105.17, then a slight drop: in the index to 90.39, in the pair to 104.95. So, if anyone wants to try the DXY as a leading indicator for this pair, they can try it;

- cryptocurrencies. At the end of 2020, Forbes compiled a list of the wealthiest representatives of the cryptocurrency business with capitals of over $1 billion. The top three included Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong with $6.5 billion, FTX head Sam Bankman-Fried with $4.5 billion and Ripple co-founder Chris Larsen with $2.9 billion. In total, Forbes counted 11 billionaires, although, given the rise in the price of digital assets in January-February, there may have already been more of them. Suffice it to say that the total cryptocurrency market capitalization increased by 87% in less than a month and a half in 2021, from $776 billion to $1,452 billion.
The past week was one of the most successful this year. The rally began with the news that Tesla bought $1.5 billion of bitcoins. At the same time, its head, Elon Musk, said that he plans to sell cars of this brand for cryptocurrency in the near future. Bitcoin went up in price by 23% on this news, on February 8.
But this did not end there. Global payments giant MasterCard has announced that it plans to provide merchants with the ability to receive payments in cryptocurrency starting later this year. As a result, bitcoin once again renewed all-time highs, reaching $48,930 in the afternoon of Friday, February 12. The capitalization of BTC has risen to $885 billion at the moment and exceeded the volume of the money supply of such a large country as Russia, for the first time.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has reached 92 (it was 81 a week ago) and is in the overbought zone. At the same time, the BTC Dominance Index has decreased from 70.36% to 61.06% since the year started. But, according to many experts, this does not indicate a deterioration in investor attitudes towards bitcoin, but an improvement in their attitude towards altcoins.
So, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) launched trading in Ethereum futures on Monday, February 08. The turnover reached $30 million on the very first day, and the open interest - $ 20 million, which indicates the stable interest of investors in this token. The capitalization of ETH has increased by 32% since the year started and amounts to more than $203 billion as of February 12.
Another top coin that we have already paid attention to in the previous review is Litecoin. Over the past three months, aggregate open interest in LTC futures has grown by 285% to $584 million. And, although the share of Litecoin in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is quite small (8th place with 0.85%), it now occupies an honorable 3rd place among derivatives after bitcoin and Ethereum.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Throughout the coming week, China is celebrating the New Year, which will cause a significant portion of trade volumes to leave the global markets. However, this does not at all promise a calm or a decrease in volatility. Although right now, investors are at a crossroads. US stock indices, after a powerful upward leap in January, have gradually moved to consolidation and look overbought. No surprises are expected from the Fed any time soon, and the report of the Open Market Committee meeting on Thursday February 18 is likely to be boring enough. On the same day, the report on the ECB meeting on monetary policy will be released, but it will be highly likely filled mostly with general streamlined phrases. Therefore, the main drivers for the EUR/USD pair will again be news about the successes in the fight against the Covid-19 pandemic on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.
As for experts, 60% of them, together with graphical analysis for H4 and D1, expect the pair to decline, at least, to support 1.2050. In case of a breakout, the next target for the bears will be the February 05 low at 1.1950. The nearest support is in the 1.2100 zone.
40% of analysts adhere to the opposite scenario. However, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 60%. 85% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 are also painted green. But the readings of the oscillators on both timeframes cannot be analyzed: there is complete chaos of red, green and neutral gray colors there. The nearest resistance level is 1.2150. The bulls' targets are first a return of the pair to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone, and then the January high at 1.2350.
As for the economic calendar of the week, in addition to the already mentioned meetings of the Fed and the ECB, we are waiting for: on Tuesday, February 16 - data on GDP of the Eurozone, on Wednesday, February 17 - data on retail sales in the United States (a noticeable increase from -0.7% to + 0.7% is expected), and at the end of the working week, on Friday, February 19, statistics on business activity of Markit in Germany and the EU will be published (here, although not so noticeable, but still growth is predicted);
(https://i.imgur.com/Z4k5Y1e.jpg)

- GBP/USD. A quarterly GDP growth of 1% means that the country has every chance of getting out of the recession. The high rates of vaccination will also contribute to this (although there are concerns about new strains of coronavirus). Prime Minister Boris Johnson plans to unveil a plan to exit the quarantine towards the end of the month, or rather February 22, which should clarify the prospects for the recovery of the UK economy.
In the meantime, analysts' votes have been distributed as follows: the pound has reached 34-month highs, and 45% of experts believe that it would be time for it to stop and play back a little down. 20% vote for the continued growth of the pair, while the remaining 35% take a neutral position. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1, together with graphical analysis on H4, point north, targets are 1.3900 and 1.3950. The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
As for the graphical analysis on D1, it shows a rebound from the resistance of 1.3865 and the decline first to support in the zone 1.3700, then 1.3630 and 1.3575.
As for economic statistics, one should pay attention to data on the UK consumer market, which will be released on Wednesday February 17, and business activity in the service sector on Friday February 19;

- USD/JPY. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts the movement of the pair in the channel along the Pivot Point 104.85 during the month. Moreover, it will first rise to the upper border of the channel at 105.75, and then descend to its lower border at 104.40. On H4, the oscillation amplitude is naturally less, from 104.85 to 105.30.
Apart from the green colored 75% of the trend indicators on D1, the readings of the other indicators and oscillators look quite confusing. It is also difficult to draw any conclusions from the opinions of experts, who are divided almost equally: 40% for the growth of the pair, 30% for its fall and the same amount for the sideways movement.
The GDP data for the IV quarter of 2020, which the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers will publish on Monday February 15, may somehow influence the formation of the short-term trend of the USD/JPY pair, especially if this indicator differs greatly from the forecasted +2.3%;

 - cryptocurrencies. We wrote about bitcoin's readiness to storm the $50,000 high two weeks ago. And its rise to $48,930 on February 12 is a clear confirmation of the correctness of this forecast, which is supported by 80% of experts in a monthly perspective.
The growth of bitcoin and other top coins pulls up the entire crypto market. Its members look forward to following the example of Tesla and MasterCard and other S& P500 companies listed on the NYSE to announce their readiness to work with digital assets. As, for example, did the Bank of New York Mellon, which said it would allow digital currencies to pass through the same financial network that it uses for traditional financial assets.
The fact that every company in America will soon follow the example of Tesla, was mentioned by the founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz in an interview with Bloomberg. According to the billionaire, this will help bitcoin grow to $100,000 by the end of this year.
In the longer term, the BTC/USD pair may rise even to $600,000. At least, this is the opinion of specialists of the financial and investment company Guggenheim Partners. According to the company's investment director, Scott Minerd, everything will depend on the number of coins in the public domain. “Cryptocurrency can rise to very high values. It is possible that we are talking about 400 or even $600,000 per coin... Bitcoin used to be unjustified for institutional investors, but now everything has changed,” Minerd said.
According to the specialist, the concern is caused by the rapid growth of the asset in the past few weeks. It is possible that we are talking about speculation in which institutional investors are involved, capable to manage the value of the coin with the help of large investments. So far, bitcoin is in a difficult situation, as the departure of large depositors will lead to a return of the negative trend. This development of events is unlikely, says the director of Guggenheim Partners, but it should definitely be taken into account.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 17, 2021, 02:32:15 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/GuBQNMX.jpg)

- Kiss bassist Gene Simmons invested a seven-figure sum in bitcoin. According to him, he bought the cryptocurrency several months ago at a time when it was almost twice as cheap as it is now. Simmons did not name the exact amount of the investment but noted that he had already managed to seriously increase his capital.
“Many people wonder if I believe in a further growth in the value of bitcoin. Of course, I do. Otherwise, I would not have spent money on a dubious asset. The future has already arrived, and new tools for earning and storing savings are appearing in our lives,” Simmons explained.

- Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023. After that, according to Edwards, the cryptocurrency market expects a bearish trend.
“Satoshi Nakamoto did not consider supply and demand. In a closed market with high demand and limited supply, the price can increase in large leaps, leading to significant increases in short periods,” she wrote.

- As the CoinDesk publication reports, the income of bitcoin miners over the past week reached a new maximum of $354 million against the background of the movement of the first cryptocurrency to the $50,000 mark. The previous record figure in seven days was $340 million and was recorded in December 2017.

- BNY Mellon, the oldest bank in the United States, announced the start of work with bitcoin and other digital assets through the launch of a new cryptocurrency storage service. According to CNBC, the bank will allow cryptocurrencies to pass through the same financial network that it currently uses for traditional assets like treasuries and stocks.
Roman Regelman, head of digital at BNY Mellon, said the financial institution is proud to be the first global bank to announce plans to provide integrated services for crypto assets. He noted that the bank will be able to start offering these services to clients this year.

- Another major US bank, JPMorgan Chase is ready to support bitcoin trading if clients are interested in it, announced the bank's co-president and chief operating officer Daniel Pinto. “If, over time, an asset class develops that will be used by various managers and investors, we will have to get involved,” he told CNBC. "There is no demand yet, but I'm sure it will appear at some point."
It became known that JPMorgan Chase organized a virtual meeting in January with the participation of thousands of traders and sales professionals from different parts of the world, during which it inquired about their interest in trading BTC.
Last week, according to CNBC, another bank, Goldman Sachs, convened a closed forum for employees and clients with the participation of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where he spoke about bitcoin, Ethereum and other digital assets.

- The owner of the Vietnamese Internet cafe Star Computer has redesigned the business to mine Ethereum. The idea came to the entrepreneur after the number of visitors to the computer club dropped markedly due to restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. “I am changing the business model: the profit is higher than from the main activity,” he announced.

- Bloomberg said that the founder of Telegram Pavel Durov bought $750 worth of bitcoins about four years ago. According to the publication, after the sale of a stake in the social network VKontakte he founded, the entrepreneur left Russia, owning $300 million and 2,000 BTC. At the moment, the cost of his initial investment in the leading cryptocurrency has reached $100 million.

- Another piece of news regarding Telegram. Telecommunications company T-Mobile has become a defendant in the lawsuit. California resident Calvin Cheng has filed a lawsuit in New York City after losing $450,000 as a result of SIM swapping - an account hack through SIM swapping.
According to Cheng, he acquired the cryptocurrency by negotiating via the Telegram messenger and using a crypto exchange operated by Iterative Capital. A few months later, in May 2020, he received a message, also via Telegram, from the phone number of Iterative Capital co-founder Brandon Buchanan. He offered a higher price for 15 bitcoins. Cheng transferred the cryptocurrency to the specified wallet, but the money for bitcoins never arrived. A few days later, Buchanan notified customers that his accounts had been hacked using SIM swapping.
The co-founder of Iterative Capital used the services of T-Mobile, and Cheng believes that the company violated obligations to protect the personal and financial information of customers, and, in addition, was negligent in hiring and training support staff, and therefore it is obliged to reimburse him for the losses incurred.

- UK police, with the support of Europol, have arrested eight suspects in SIM card fraud. According to law enforcement officers, fraudsters have stolen money and crypto assets worth $100 million. The attacks were carried out throughout 2020 from the UK, and the victims of the scammers living in the United States were "famous influencers, sports stars, musicians and their families."
Fraudsters uploaded identification information from SIM cards of victims' phones to their cards, thus gaining control over their crypto wallets and bank accounts.

- It became known that the Mayor of Miami (USA) Francis Suarez has already taken a number of steps to legalize cryptocurrency as an investment and payment instrument. “We have made bitcoin an available currency for potential investors. In addition, employees can receive salaries in cryptocurrency, which is a huge step forward,” he wrote on Twitter.
New York Mayor and former presidential candidate Andrew Newbie trader and Reno, Nevada Mayor Hillary SRisk aversion supported Suarez's decision.  And Andrew Newbie trader said that he would try to make the financial centre of the world become a centre for cryptocurrencies.
According to a number of experts, such steps and statements by US politicians and officials have a positive impact on the price of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 19, 2021, 08:32:54 AM
Forex Trend Indicators: Destination, Features, Varieties


Finding patterns, repeatability and historical cyclicality is one of the main tasks of a trader. Some use graphic patterns to look for the silhouettes of geometric shapes. Some study the characteristic price movements: acceleration, braking, and interaction with graphic objects. However, there is a huge category of traders who are engaged in technical analysis of Forex using indicators. They allow you to predict the market, study its various characteristics and use these patterns in your own trading. Even beginners who have just heard about the existence of technical analysis will be able to analyze the market with their help.

One of the largest categories of the entire variety of instruments is Forex trend indicators. They are based on a simple pattern of price movement, namely, the tendency to trend movements.  A trend is a forward movement of the price up or down, in which the rewriting of extremes is characteristic. It is formed under the influence of majority positions in the market when there is a prolonged imbalance between buyers and sellers.

By identifying a trend, you shift the likelihood of success of the trade to your own direction. We will tell you in this article what Forex trend indicators are used for, what you should pay attention to when working with them, and what place they can take in the trading system.

Purpose and Methods of Using Trend Indicators

The overwhelming majority of books on technical analysis are based on the fact that the trend is the basis around which strategies are built. You should always stick to its direction and open trades in its direction. A trader must be able to identify it and build trading in its direction. However, it is difficult to determine it in a timely manner and without errors.

This is due to market noise, which blur the overall picture of what is happening. Trend indicators were created to combat it, that, depending on the formula embedded in them, average the price or in other ways indicate the global price movement, helping to determine the direction of future transactions.

Most often, their use is reduced to the filter function in the strategy, when the signals from the oscillator are matched with a global trend. For example, it can be a bundle of EMA and Stochastic, RSI, any other indicators of building channels and levels can be used. If they match in their readings, a trade is opened, and in case of a discrepancy, a trade should not be opened.

In addition to the filter, they can give signals to enter the market. This could be both a change in global and short-term trends. One way or another, indicators of this type can be a source of data for opening future positions by a trader.

In some cases, trend indicators can also be used to set Stop Loss. A prime example is setting a stop order under EMA, where the indicator line is the main pointer to limit risk.

Three Main Trend Indicators

Technical Analysis is world famous for its range of instruments around the world. A huge number of custom developments allows you to create a wide variety of trading systems. As mentioned above, a trader can take any trend-type instrument as a basis and attach an RSI indicator or any other oscillator to it. As a result, you get a balanced basis for developing a trading strategy.

The following TOP-3 trend indicators on Forex can be distinguished among all the tools that the MetaTrader terminal allows you to use. This is Moving Average, MACD, Bollinger Bands. They are present by default in all existing terminals and are considered standard. By the way, NordFX broker allows you to work with them through the MT4 terminal, which can be installed not only on a computer, but even on your mobile phone.

Moving Average Review

The Moving Average indicator is a classic trend indicator that draws a price line on a chart by averaging its value over a specified number of candles. SMA is considered a basic tool for technical analysis. First, it is a medium-arithmetic value, easy to calculate, and therefore was created one of the first. Secondly, many modifications and other indicators have been created on its basis. Thirdly, a trader can implement absolutely any strategy on its basis (Fig. 1).

(https://i.imgur.com/kMJmkeD.jpg)

There are several types of moving averages:

1. Simple moving average (SMA);
2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA);
3. Weighted moving average (WMA).

It is difficult to see the difference between them  at a first glance. The fact is that they differ in the type of price averaging, which entails some differences in sensitivity and lag. The last one on the list is the slowest and roughest of market noise. EMA is on the contrary the fastest and is more commonly used in practice.

The line you see on your chart can generate the following signals:

1. Crossing of the line and the price;
2. Crossing of the moving average lines between each other;
3. Average with a large period as a line of support and resistance.

We also want to pay attention to the angles of inclination and the position of price relative to the line. If it is above the line, the current trend is upward, if it is below the line, it is downward. It is worth reminding once again that in strategies Moving Average is almost always used in tandem with oscillators: Stochastic, RSI and others, which help to determine the beginning, continuation or end of the current trend.

A simple example of how the Stochastic indicator exits the overbought zone confirms a downtrend in the SMA and gives a command to open a sell trade is shown in Figure 2 below:

(https://i.imgur.com/chg0Sk1.jpg)

MACD Overview

This indicator is sometimes mistakenly considered an oscillator. This is not the case, because it is based on price averaging. The MACD algorithm is based on the convergence and divergence of two Moving Averages, and the histogram shows the distance between them. So MACD, unlike Stochastic or RSI, is not a stochastic oscillator, but a classic trend indicator (Fig. 3).

(https://i.imgur.com/vTSzU7F.jpg)

It is a huge source of signals, as it is able to find short-term and medium-term changes of the trend, generate signals to change the global trend. Its most formidable weapon is divergence. It has become a common signal for a huge number of Forex indicators.

Divergence is a reversal type of signal that is formed due to the mismatch of the extremes of the instrument with the real price. Simply put, if the price curve is still going down, and the indicator curve has already turned upstairs, this is a strong signal that the trend reversal should soon be expected. Thus, MACD, like other reversal indicators, is able not to post facto, but to warn in advance about fractures in price movements. The example is given in Figure 4:

(https://i.imgur.com/Nl7ScVq.jpg)

You can see divisions above and below the 0.00 mark on the histogram. At moments when the graph crosses this zero line, a global trend change is fixed. It is clear that if the intersection occurs from bottom up, then the trend has changed from downward to rising. Accordingly, at the reverse level crossing, the trend changes from ascending to descending.

Also note how the MACD histogram interacts with the signal red dotted line. Their intersection generates a signal of a short-term change in the price movement and helps to determine the moment for opening orders either for buy or sell (Fig. 5).

(https://i.imgur.com/FmLN3ut.jpg)

Some Forex traders use this indicator not only together with other technical analysis tools, but also on their own. This is explained by the strength and accuracy of the MACD signals, especially if divergence occurs on the chart.

Bollinger Bands Review

Bollinger Bands round out the top three Forex trend indicators. They are an ordinary moving average, at a distance from which a trading range is built. It is interesting that this indicator is able to find and give the trader information not only about the direction of the trend, but also about the market volatility, as well as give signals to pull back from the boundaries of the range (Fig. 6).

(https://i.imgur.com/A3d9emu.jpg)

Bollinger Bands demonstrate the strength and potential of the trend with its range. When the channel narrows, a transition from trend to flat or accumulation stage should be expected. Expansion, on the other hand, indicates an increase in volatility and trend activity. Trading can be based on the interaction of the indicator lines and the price, which can bounce back from them, break them or test them. This allows you to trade either on the break, or on the breakdown of the range. Both options will be correct. An example of how the Relative Strength Index indicator works in tandem with Bollinger Bands to rebound from the range boundaries can be seen in Fig. 7:

(https://i.imgur.com/888hNrG.jpg)

Strengths and Weaknesses

The strong point of trend indicators is the ability to cut off minor price fluctuations and identify the main trend of its movement. Фlmost all trend instruments use the averaging algorithm to combat market noise. On the one hand, it frees you from noise, makes the market picture clearer and more understandable. On the other side of the scale is the signal delay. Moreover, the more noise the indicator cuts off, the more delayed its signals.

It should also be borne in mind that signals such as, for example, divergence, can occur quite rarely. Therefore, having missed one such signal, you can wait a long time for the next one to appear. Especially if you trade on large time frames.

However, the usefulness and effectiveness of Forex trend indicators is beyond doubt. They allow not to be mistaken with the global direction of the price, due to which they are able to become the basis of a high-quality trading strategy and bring stable profits both in manual trading and in automatic trading with the help of robot advisors.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 21, 2021, 02:20:36 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 22 - 26, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The sharp rise in bond yields in the US and Europe has hit not only the stock market, but also the “carry trade”, providing support to funding currencies, primarily the euro and the US dollar. Recall that the funding currency is usually a currency with a low interest rate. Implementing the carry trade strategy, traders borrow it and then deposit it in another currency, such as developing countries, with a higher rate. And now the fall in risk sentiment has led to an exit from such deals, and the strengthening of both EUR and USD. Apparently, this can explain the consolidation of this pair. And if the preponderance was on the side of the dollar in the first half of the week, then, investors began to buy up the cheaper euro starting from Wednesday, February 17. As a result, having started the week at the level of 1.2120, the EUR/USD pair ended it almost there, at the level of 1.2115;

- GBP/USD. The pound continues to push north, approaching the 2018 highs. The pair broke through the psychologically important level of 1.4000 on Friday, February 19, recording a weekly high at the height of 1.4035. It completed the trading session at the same level 1.4000, after a slight rebound.
The American currency lost to the British one amid weak data from the US labor market. Investors expected a decrease in the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits from 848 thousand to 765 thousand, while, on the contrary, it rose to 861 thousand over the week. The number of secondary applications was not encouraging either, it decreased from 4.558 million to 4.494 million, instead of the forecasted 4.413 million. Investors were fast to recall the statements of the FRS officials that it would take more than one year to return the labor market to the previous levels, and that it was necessary to take new measures to support the US economy.
But the data on the consumer market and business activity, released in the UK last week, looked pretty good. The Markit index in February was at 49.7 against 39.5, only slightly short of 50, the threshold that separates growth in economic activity from its fall. These figures have once again strengthened the confidence of buyers of the British currency that the Bank of England will refrain from allocating new funds under QE and from cutting the interest rate. As a result, the GBP/USD pair went further up, taking the next important milestone - 1.4000;

- USD/JPY. The main trends of this pair, as well as EUR/USD, were determined last week by disappointing data from the US labor market and a sharp rise in government bond yields. The Japanese GDP data released on Monday 15 February, although was significantly better than the forecast (3.0% versus 2.3%), had no effect on market sentiment, once again showing that the rate of this pair is being formed in the USA.
Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost equally: 40% supported the growth of the pair, 30% were for its fall and as much for lateral movement. And, in general, everyone turned out to be right. The pair grew for the first half of the week, reaching a height of 106.20, then it fell, and the finish of the five-day period took place near the place where it had already started on February 08 - at 105.40;

- cryptocurrencies. As we predicted, bitcoin has hit the $50,000 bar and is quoted at $55,000 at the time of writing. Starting from February 01, the main cryptocurrency added about 60% in weight, the growth of Ethereum (ETH/USD) amounted to a little less than 50%, the leader in this three was Litecoin (LTC/USD) with 80%.
In general, the situation for the digital market is quite positive. Even conservative structures such as American banks have turned their views in its direction. The oldest US bank, BNY Mellon, has announced the start of work with bitcoin and other digital assets. Another major US bank, JPMorgan Chase, is also ready to support bitcoin trading. It became known that JPMorgan Chase organized a virtual meeting in January with the participation of thousands of traders and sales professionals from different parts of the world, during which it inquired about their interest in trading BTC. And last week, another bank, Goldman Sachs, held a closed forum for employees and customers on the topic of cryptocurrencies, at which the speaker was Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital.
The statements of a number of US politicians and officials also have a positive impact on the price of digital assets. For example, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez announced that he had already taken a number of steps to legalize cryptocurrency. “We have made bitcoin an available currency for potential investors. In addition, employees can receive salaries in cryptocurrency, which is a huge step forward,” he wrote on Twitter. Candidate for mayor of New York and former candidate for US President Andrew Newbie trader supported his colleague, saying that he will try to make the financial center of the world become a center for cryptocurrencies as well. And St. Louis Fed chief James Bullard called bitcoin a rival for gold.
Institutional investors continue to buy both cryptocurrencies and shares of miners and crypto funds. So, the Grayscale Investments fund added 20,000 ETH to its Ethereum portfolio last week, bringing its volume to $6 billion. Another impetus for the growth of the BTC/USD pair was MicroStrategy's decision to raise another $900 million to buy bitcoins.
Overall, the supply / demand ratio remains in favor of bitcoin: 150,000 BTC coins were mined and almost 360,000 were bought back over the last five months of 2020, and investors hope that this balance will continue in the future.
At the same time, buyers look at the head of Tesla Elon Musk, whose tweets alone push the quotes sharply upward. However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is now interested in his "creativity" on Twitter, considering that the billionaire's calls to buy digital assets fall under the law on the offer and advertising of securities and can be regarded as unregistered brokerage activities and attempts to manipulate the market. If proven, Elon Musk could face huge fines. In the meantime, the entrepreneur said that he was taking a break and would no longer post tweets, at least in the near future.
As for the total cryptocurrency market capitalization, even without Musk's tweets, it grew over the week from $1,458 billion to $1,625 billion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is slowly but inexorably approaching its maximum value of 100 points. It has now reached 93, which indicates a strong overheating of the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The European Union is still under blockade of restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But in the United States, not everything is as rosy as expected. Weak data on the labor market, the growth of initial applications for unemployment benefits put pressure on the dollar.
It can be understood from the statements of ECB executives that even if bond yields in Europe continue to rise, the bank is unlikely to increase the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme. Officials from the Governing Council of the ECB believe that the measures they have taken are quite sufficient, it just takes some time for them to have the maximum positive effect.
The situation is exactly the opposite on the other side of the Atlantic Ocean. Judging by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's appeals to the US Congress and the Federal Reserve minutes published on February 18, QE volumes will continue to increase. The soft monetary policy will continue until the economy of this country shows steady growth. The next measure will be the adoption of another stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion.
In such a situation it is logical to expect a weakening of the dollar in the medium term, and the rise of the EUR/USD pair first to the zone of 1.2200-1.2300, and then return to the January high of 1.2350. 65% of analysts agree with this scenario. But as for the weekly forecast, the picture is different.
The majority (70%) of experts believe that the pair should retest the support in the 1.2020 zone in the near future and try to reach the February 05 low of 1.1955. This bearish development is supported by 15% of the oscillators on H4 and D1, which give signals that the pair is overbought.
The rest of the oscillators, as well as 75% of the trend indicators, are colored green. But graphical analysis on both time frames draws consolidation in the range 1.2020-1.2155.
As for the events of the week, here the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday 22 February and the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell in the US Congress on Wednesday 24 February are of interest, as well as annual data on GDP and the volume of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States to be published on Thursday 25 February;
 
- GBP/USD. It is clear that 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. The overwhelming majority of analysts (75%) are also awaiting a correction to the south. True, in their opinion, this may not happen in the coming week, but in the first half of March. Support levels are 1.3950, 1.3850, 1.3775, 1.3600.
The potential for British currency growth has not yet been exhausted so far. And everything will depend on whose structural problems, the US or the UK, will put more pressure on their national currencies. This refers not only to quantitative easing and interest rates, but also the issue and yield of government securities, as well as the risk of high inflation due to excessively high budget spending.
We outlined in the first part of the review how the data from the US labor market affected the pair's behavior. Similar macro statistics on the UK labour market are expected to be released in the coming week, on Tuesday 23 February. And if it looks quite optimistic, you can expect the continuation of the uptrend of the GBP/USD pair. Other events include a speech by the British Prime Minister the day before. Although, most likely, Boris Johnson will do without much specifics, and will enthusiastically talk about the successes of his Cabinet in the fight against the pandemic, the record pace of vaccinations, and how relations with the EU are developing after Brexit;

- USD/JPY ... 104.40-105.40 is the zone that the pair has visited many times over the past 30 weeks. This allows us to speak of it as the Pivot Point of the medium-term sideways channel 102.60-107.00. By the way, the maximum trading range of 440 points on the semi-annual segment is actually not so great. In October, for example, the pair made 240-point throws in just one day.
At the moment, only 35% of experts believe that the pair has not yet completed its movement to the upper border of this trading range. True, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1 are on their side, which gives additional weight to this forecast. Resistance levels are 105.70, 106.20, the target is 107.00.
The opposite view is held by 65% of analysts, with the number rising to 80% when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast. They have a similar number of indicators on their side, on H4 this time. Support levels are 105.00, 104.40, 103.60, the target is 102.60.
Graphical analysis shows fluctuations of the pair in the trading range 104.40-106.20 with a predominance of bearish sentiment.
(https://i.imgur.com/KTUijMy.jpg)

 - cryptocurrencies. As bitcoin prices grow, there are fewer buyers in the market. The most cautious ones left back in December, when the coin reached its previous all-time high of $20,000. The next phase of closing long positions followed after bitcoin's rise to $40,000. Only the most die-hard investors and crypto fans have made it to the $50,000 level.
Bitcoin is overbought. But after the price stepped over $55,000 on Friday evening February 19, there was no active sale. The market froze in anticipation. Alarming signals are already coming, though.
First, the share of sellers is growing, which has increased from 18% to 35% over the past two weeks. Second, about 2/3 of traders buy perpetual futures contracts using leverage, resulting in higher funding rates and commission costs while maintaining long positions. And third, the shares of miners went down.
According to CoinDesk, weekly earnings of bitcoin miners reached a new high of $354 million from February 08 to 14. The previous record figure in seven days was $340 million and was recorded in December 2017. But despite this positive, for example, Riot Blockchain Inc shares lost 20% in price only on February 18.
However, according to a number of experts, it is not worth waiting for the onset of a new crypto winter. Though it may be a deep one, it is just a correction. Moreover, at small volumes there is a probability of growth of bitcoin up to $60,000-65,000 even by inertia. And there, a new wave of purchases can be triggered by FOMO - Lost Profit Syndrome (Fear Of Missing Out). After all, fear and greed are known to drive the market.
Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, has predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023. After that, according to Edwards, the cryptocurrency market expects a bearish trend.
But even though the growth of the BTC/USD pair may continue in the near future, you need to be very cautious about purchases at current levels. Most analysts consider them to be quite risky and suggest waiting for a rollback, and only then open new long positions.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 24, 2021, 02:32:24 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/UixiF3k.jpg)

- After bitcoin hit an all-time high of $58,275 on February 21, investors were looking forward to taking the $60,000 high. However, there was a sudden reversal and a sharp drop of 23% to $44,985. According to many experts, the trigger of the massive profit fixation by "whales" was the statement of the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the possibility of using it for money laundering. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the Ministry of Finance has actually declared war on bitcoin.
“Digital currencies can provide faster and cheaper payments. But there are many issues to be explored, including consumer protection and money laundering,” Janet Yelen said, also mentioning the possibility of launching the Central Bank's own digital currency (CBDC).
The fall in bitcoin could also have been facilitated by the fall in global indices of technology companies, as well as the beginning of a large-scale vaccination against coronavirus.

- According to Bloomberg, against the background of the decline in the bitcoin rate, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, lost the first place in the ranking of the richest people on the planet. Tesla shares fell 8.6%, causing Musk to lose $15.2 billion. Shortly before the decline, the company announced that it had added $1.5 billion in bitcoin to its balance sheet. At the same time, the fall in bitcoin, according to Bloomberg, may be partly related to the statement of Musk himself, who called the prices of cryptocurrencies too high.

- Due to technical failures, some customers of the Philippine crypto exchange PDAX were able to buy bitcoin almost 10 times cheaper than the market price, Bitpinas reports. One of the users admitted that he bought bitcoins for 300,000 pesos ($6,150), while the average market price of BTC was about $50,000, after which he transferred the cryptocurrency to his wallet.
A day later, PDAX sent him a letter demanding the return of the bitcoins, but the buyer's lawyer claims that "the transaction was legitimate, in accordance with applicable laws, and PDAX cannot withdraw transactions unilaterally."
Another client of this crypto exchange unexpectedly found 40 billion Philippine pesos or about 820 million dollars in his account. It is not reported whether he was able to withdraw this "gift" from PDAX.

- Three platforms - Binance, Huobi and OKEx - account for 75% of the total trading volume on crypto exchanges, according to BDCenter Digital. The safest exchanges were Kraken, Coinbase and Binance.
The study showed that the number of cryptocurrency users has almost tripled since 2018 and reached 191 million users from over 150 countries in the third quarter of 2020. At the same time, the researchers emphasize that the availability of an exchange in a country does not mean the actual availability of all its products and functionality. So the purchase of cryptocurrencies using a credit card is supported only by 65% of sites.

- One of the world's largest money transfer services, MoneyGram, refused to use the product based on the XRP token due to the claims of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. This is stated in a report by the company.
Against the backdrop of SEC claims, in addition to MoneyGram, Coinbase and OKCoin, Galaxy Digital, Bitstamp, B2C2, eToro and Kraken have already refused to support the XRP token. Asset management company Grayscale Investments announced the liquidation of an XRP-based investment trust, and 21Shares has excluded the Ripple token from its traded exchange products.

- Australian authorities have charged a Sydney resident suspected of drug trafficking, money laundering and bitcoin money laundering for a total of $4.3 million. The police found two bags with $1 million in cash in his car, and seized mobile phones, a laptop and a batch of illegal substances from his home.
Recall that in January 2021, the owner of the RG Coins cryptocurrency exchange Rossen Iosifov already received 121 months in prison for laundering about $5 million using digital assets.

- Analysts reviewed publications about cryptocurrency exchanges in various media. Cointelegraph was the leading media outlet by the number of articles. The first place in popularity was taken by English, the second - Russian.
According to BDCenter Digital, 12 out of 100 Twitter posts are about cryptocurrency. In just the week of February 7-14, Twitter users mentioned bitcoin over 675,000 times. The last record was set on January 10, when the weekly number of posts mentioning bitcoin reached 576,000.

- According to a responsible representative of the Russian Orthodox Church, it does not plan to create its own cryptocurrency to accept donations. The church has also refused to accept bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies. At the same time, according to Metropolitan Hilarion, believers may well make donations to the church using the phone.

- According to the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets Anthony Pompliano, the main cryptocurrency may reach $500 thousand by the end of this decade, and even $1 million in the long term.
However, the growth of cryptocurrency quotes may stop due to the rapid recovery of the global economy after the recession caused by the coronavirus epidemic. In this case, central banks will begin to roll back their quantitative easing programs, raise interest rates, stop buying assets and printing cheap money. As a result, investment flows into bitcoin, as one of the most attractive safe havens, can dry up very quickly.

- The largest developer of graphics processors, the American technology company Nvidia has announced plans to release a series of video cards specifically for mining the Ethereum cryptocurrency, which is the second after bitcoin. According to CNBC, the new type of GPU is called CMP (Crypto Mining Processor) and can appear in the market already in March 2021.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 27, 2021, 07:09:19 AM
Two More Awards for NordFX: Best Affiliate Program & Best Forex Broker Middle East 2020


At the end of 2020, the Forex-Awards.com expert council named NordFX Best Forex Broker Middle East. The two-tier NordFX affiliate program was also awarded a prestigious award.

(https://nordfx.com/data/posts/2021/02/24/1614178318_Best_Forex_Broker_Middle_East.png)

Forex-Awards.com is a team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong, which specializes in the analysis and evaluation of brokerage companies since 2010, aiming to identify the real market leaders. Based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trader community, Forex-Awards.com employees compile regular ratings of brokers, identifying their strongest and most attractive sides. The winners in each of the 30 nominations are then determined based on the results obtained. A convincing victory was won by the brokerage company NordFX in two of them in 2020.

More than one and a half million accounts have been opened by clients from almost 190 countries during 13 years of NordFX work, among them many traders from the Middle East. Back in 2013, at the 12th MENA Forex Show, the company won the prize as Best Forex Arabic Platform. And now the new award confirms the high level of services that NordFX provides to clients from this region: the first place in the Best Forex Broker Middle East nomination.

Another victory at the Forex Awards was won in the Best Affiliate Program category. Since 2016, thanks to its effectiveness and popularity, NordFX's two-tier affiliate program has been receiving the highest marks. It has been recognized as the best by expert committees of not only Forex-Awards.com, but also by Academy Masterforex-V and Saigon Financial Education Summit. More than 25,000 of the company's partners have already been paid more than $30,000,000 as commission until now, and these figures continue to grow steadily.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 28, 2021, 08:14:41 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 01-05, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As we expected, the speech by the head of the Fed turned out to be quite interesting. Jerome Powell presented to Congress a semi-annual report on monetary policy, from which it followed that not everything is as good as we would like as far as the recovery of the US economy is concerned. The surge in economic activity in the summer of 2020 was followed by the slowsown of the growth rate. The decline in unemployment has slowed down, and household expenditures are not growing either.
After the unrest and turmoil of 2020, a lot of attention is paid to socio-demographic differentiation, but the picture is not the rosiest either. Unemployment among "white" Americans, according to the Fed, is 5.7%, while among Hispanics - 8.6%, and among African Americans it is even higher - 9.2%. There is also discrimination based on gender: for the last month of 2020, men gained 16,000 new jobs, while women, on the contrary, lost 140,000.
All of the above raises certain doubts about the early recovery of the American economy, leads to a decrease in risk sentiment, and strikes a blow on the stock market and the US dollar. Investors are shifting attention to long-term government bonds. Since the beginning of 2021, the yield on 10-year treasuries has jumped from 0.91% to 1.56%, and their growth has become especially noticeable recently. As for stock indices (especially stocks of technology companies), they, accordingly, go down sharply. For example, the S&P500 was losing up to 3.8% in just two days - February 25-26, while the Nasdaq Composite was sinking by more than 3%. The DXY dollar index is also gradually approaching 2018 lows, losing about 9% this year.
In such a situation, most analysts (65%) expected the dollar to weaken and rise to the 1.2200-1.2300 zone, which happened: at the week's high, February 25, the EUR/USD pair was approaching 1.2245. However, then it seems that investors changed their minds and began to realize that the growing yield of long-term Treasury securities directly affects the growth of rates on current consumer lending. And that immediately brings to mind the 2008 mortgage crisis, which marked the beginning of a series of major bankruptcies. As a result, the dollar strengthened a little and the EUR/USD pair dropped to the zone 1.2070-1.2100 - the place where it has already been several times since last December. This can only say about one thing: the confusion of the market and the lack of clarity about the prospects of the European and American economies;

- GBP/USD. As predicted, Prime Minister Boris Johnson's speech on Monday 22 February, as well as the expectation of positive data from the UK labour market on Tuesday 23 February, continued to push the pair GBP/USD to the highs of 2018, raising it to the height of 1.4240.
And of course, the dynamics of the pair could not but be affected by what was happening in the United States. Therefore, repeating the EUR/USD parabola, the GBP/USD pair went south on Thursday February 25, especially since it was overbought, and some reason was simply needed to take profit on the pound.
On Friday, having lost 355 points, the pair found a local bottom at 1.3885. This was followed by a rebound and a finish at 1.3930;

- USD/JPY. It was said last week that this pair was moving within the medium-term side channel 102.60-107.00. Only 35% of experts believed then that the pair had not yet completed its movement to the upper border of this trading range. True, 75% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1 were on their side, which gave additional weight to this forecast, which turned out to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded a 26-week high at 106.70 on the second half of Friday, February 26. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 106.55;

- cryptocurrencies. We have repeatedly written that the presence of large institutional investors in the crypto market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, they can strongly push the market up, and on the other hand, they can crash the quotes if they fix profits. In addition, the actions and sentiments of such institutions are highly dependent on the actions and sentiments of regulators and other government agencies. We felt all this in full last week.
After bitcoin hit an all-time high of $58,275 on February 21, investors were looking forward to taking the $60,000 high. However, there was a sudden reversal and a sharp drop of 23% to $44,985. Then the rebound to $50,000, and a fall again - to $44,000.
According to many experts, the trigger of the massive profit fixation by "whales" was the statement of the former head of the Fed and now the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on the speculative nature of cryptocurrency and the possibility of using it for money laundering. According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the Ministry of Finance has actually declared war on bitcoin.
“Digital currencies can provide faster and cheaper payments. But there are many issues to be explored, including consumer protection and money laundering,” Janet Yelen said, also mentioning the possibility of launching the Central Bank's own digital currency (CBDC).
The fall in bitcoin could also have been facilitated by the fall in global indexes of technology companies and the beginning of large-scale vaccinations against coronavirus, but the main thing is the position of the US Government.
According to Bloomberg, against the background of the decline in the bitcoin rate, the head of Tesla and SpaceX, Elon Musk, lost the first place in the ranking of the richest people on the planet. Tesla shares fell by 8.6%, as a result of which Musk lost $15.2 billion. At the same time, the fall in bitcoin, according to Bloomberg, may be partly due to the statement of Musk himself, who called the prices of cryptocurrencies too high. It is not for nothing that they say that a word is silver, and silence is gold. Musk would be better off keeping his mouth shut ?.
Of course, someone loses, and someone finds. Thus, for example, due to technical failures, some customers of the Philippine crypto exchange PDAX were able to buy bitcoin almost 10 times cheaper than the market price, Bitpinas reports. One of the users admitted that he bought bitcoins for 300,000 pesos ($6,150), while the average market price of BTC was about $50,000, after which he transferred the cryptocurrency to his wallet. A day later, PDAX sent him a letter demanding the return of the bitcoins, but the buyer's lawyer claims that "the transaction was legitimate, in accordance with applicable laws, and PDAX cannot withdraw transactions unilaterally."
Another client of this crypto exchange unexpectedly found 40 billion Philippine pesos or about 820 million dollars in his account. It is not reported whether he was able to withdraw this "gift" from PDAX.
In general, the reliability of crypto exchanges is still a rather painful topic. According to BDCenter Digital agency, Kraken, Coinbase and Binance are the safest exchanges. The brokerage company NordFX can also be noted here, whose clients can also make transactions and store deposits in cryptocurrencies. In the 13 years of this broker, it has not had a single hack and not a single foreign exchange transaction settles of client funds has been lost.
On Friday evening, February 26, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $46,000 zone. The total market capitalization fell over the week from $1,625 billion to $1,410 billion. AND The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally come out of strong overbought zone to neutral levels, dropping from 93 to 55.
When it comes to altcoins, there is both good news and bad news. For example, the largest developer of GPUs - American technology company Nvidia announced plans to release a series of graphics cards specifically for mining Ethereum. According to CNBC, they can be expected to appear on sale this March.
But it looks like the hard times will not end for Ripple. One of the world's largest money transfer services, MoneyGram, refused to use the product based on the XRP token due to the claims of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against Ripple. Against the backdrop of SEC claims, in addition to MoneyGram, Coinbase and OKCoin, Galaxy Digital, Bitstamp, B2C2, eToro and Kraken have already refused to support the XRP token. Asset management company Grayscale Investments announced the liquidation of an XRP-based investment trust, and 21Shares has removed the Ripple token from its exchange-traded products. As a result, the Ripple lost up to 45% of its value last week, and the XRP/USD pair was trading at $0.42 on the evening of February 26.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The figures given in the first part of the review confirm the opinion of the US Federal Reserve management that it is still very, very early to talk about any curtailment of the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as about raising interest rates. Therefore, the Fed will continue its soft monetary policy, even as inflation expectations rise caused by a doubling of the Fed's balance sheet over the past year.
However, not only the US has the problem of increasing national debt. Europe is experiencing similar problems, and the interest rate there is even lower than on the other side of the Atlantic. The profitability of European government securities is also growing. Thus, the rate on 10-year bonds in Germany has already reached an 11-month high.
In general, we can say that the balance between the problems and achievements of the Old and New Worlds remains on average at the same level, experiencing minor temporary fluctuations, which is reflected in the three-month sideways trend of the EUR/USD pair. If you look at its chart, it can be seen that, since December 2020, most of the time it moves in a fairly narrow trading range of 1.2050-1.2185, with emissions up to 1.1950 and 1.2350.
If we talk about the short term, 70% of analysts believe that the pair will continue to decline to the 1.1950-1.2000 zone. They are supported in this by 75% of oscillators on H4, the remaining 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. As for the oscillators on D1, there are approximately equal shares of red, green and gray-neutral colors. 95% of the trend indicators on H4 and 65% on D1 are painted red.
But graphical analysis on both timeframes gives preference to the upward movement of the pair. Resistance levels are 1.2170 1.2240 and 1.2270. However, after this push to the north, graphical analysis on D1 draws a decline in the pair during March to support at 1.1950.
And now about the events of the coming week, of which there will be quite a few. Firstly, we are waiting for the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday March 01 and the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Thursday March 4. Statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the EU will be released on March 01, 02 and 04. As for the US macro statistics, the indicators of ISM business activity in the manufacturing and private sectors will be known on Monday and Wednesday. And in addition, data on the labor market will be published on Wednesday and Friday. Moreover, according to forecasts, a significant increase in new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) is possible - from 49K to 148K;

- GBP/USD. First, the readings of technical indicators. Oscillators: 90% on H4 are looking south, 10% are in the oversold zone; only 15% are looking to the south on D1, 50% to the north, and 35% are neutral. Trend indicators: 80% look south on H4, 20% look north, 25% look south on D1, 75% look north.
Graphic analysis on D1 draws a side trend in the range 1.3860-1.4240. And it is clear that since the pair finished the previous week closer to the lower border of this channel, it will move upward. 60% of experts agree with this forecast. Resistance levels are 1.3960, 1.4055, 1.4085 and 1.4175.
The remaining 30% believe that the pair will break the lower border of the channel 1.3860, then support around 1.3800 and will go to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the bears increases to 65%.

- USD/JPY.  The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 06, and it turned north, moving to the upward channel. According to the graphical analysis on D1, the USD/JPY pair has almost reached its upper border now, which is in the zone 106.70-107.00, and should soon bounce back to the south. Such a scenario is supported by 25% of the oscillators giving signals about the pair being overbought. It is clear that the remaining 75% of oscillators and 100% of the indicators on both time frames are colored green so far.
As for experts, a third of them sides with the bulls, a third votes for the bears, and a third takes a neutral stance. However, in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, 75% of analysts vote for the pair to stay within the medium-term trading range of 102.60-107.00 (it was mentioned in the first part of the review), and therefore await its return to its central zone at 105.00. Support levels are 106.10 and 105.70; The remaining 25% of experts believe that the pair will be able to reach the zone of 108.00-108.50;
(https://i.imgur.com/zRoqkTI.jpg)

 - cryptocurrencies. The popularity and prominence of cryptocurrencies continues to grow. According to BDCenter Digital, 12 out of 100 Twitter posts are about cryptocurrency. In just the week of February 7-14, Twitter users mentioned bitcoin over 675,000 times. The last record was set on January 10, when the weekly number of posts mentioning bitcoin reached 576,000. In total, the number of cryptocurrency users has stepped over 200 million people from more than 150 countries.
Despite the drop last week, 2021 started off well for bitcoin overall. The pair started at $28,800 on January 1 and is trading at $46,000 at the time of writing, having gained almost 60%. And now, importantly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has finally emerged from a strong overbought state, dropping from 93 to neutral 55.
Of course, this does not mean that the quotes of the BTC/USD pair will immediately fly up. However, what is happening gives investors hope for the fulfillment of the positive predictions of many experts and crypto gurus. recall that Lisa Edwards, sister of self-proclaimed bitcoin creator Craig Wright, has predicted that the first cryptocurrency would rise to $142,000. Based on Elliott Wave Theory, she suggested that digital gold would rise to $90,000 by May 2021, decline to $55,000 by January 2022, and skyrocketing to $142,000 in March 2023.
According to the co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets Anthony Pompliano, the main cryptocurrency may reach $500 thousand by the end of this decade, and even $1 million in the long term.
However, the growth of cryptocurrency quotes may stop due to the rapid recovery of the global economy after the recession caused by the coronavirus epidemic. In this case, central banks will begin to roll back their quantitative easing programs, raise interest rates, stop buying assets and printing cheap money. As a result, investment flows into bitcoin, as one of the most attractive safe havens, can dry up very quickly.
So, what did we observe last week - a temporary correction or the beginning of a new "crypto winter"? The question is still open. However, the overwhelming majority of experts (70%) believe that the BTC/USD pair will reach the $ 60,000-75,000 zone in spring. The pessimism of the remaining 30% of analysts is expressed in the figures of $30,000-35,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 03, 2021, 03:30:40 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/Krh1i8i.jpg)

- The trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges in February exceeded $1 trillion. Such numbers were achieved for the first time in history, according to experts. Even during the first bitcoin rally, the trading volume reached only $650 billion. According to experts of the analytical platform Block Research, large investors prefer to carry out transactions from one account to another through third-party services in order to maintain complete anonymity. Therefore, the real number of transactions can even be twice the official amount.

- Users of the Opera browser will be able to carry out transactions with many popular cryptocurrencies directly in the browser. “We have added fundamentally new algorithms. We are talking about the Simplex payment processor, which is used in many reliable and reputable cryptocurrency wallets. We are ready to provide services on competitive terms. This is especially true of transaction fees, which we will have as low as possible,” Opera says in a press release. Another benefit would be creating a digital wallet without going to third-party sites.

- A proponent of gold, President of Euro Pacific Capital Peter Schiff congratulated those who managed to buy the first cryptocurrency before take-off and made Wall Street succumb to "this mania." It was just recently, that this bitcoin sceptic called bitcoin the largest bubble in history and unflatteringly spoke about the mental abilities of cryptocurrency investors. And now he has admitted his mistake. “When I first heard about bitcoin, I didn't think that smart investors would be stupid enough to buy bitcoin. I was wrong," Schiff wrote.

- The Google Finance platform has added a tab for monitoring digital asset prices. The new section provides real-time information on Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash prices. This block has been added to the sections on the markets of the US, Asia, Europe and "Currencies", and makes it possible to compare the performance of cryptocurrencies with other financial instruments.

- The amount of damage from fraud with digital currencies could double in 2021 and reach $4.5 billion. This This assumption was made by specialists of Kaspersky Lab. Other popular fraudulent schemes include the closure of bitcoin exchanges under the pretext of technical problems or hacker attacks, gaining access to user data using fake applications or websites, and sending out fraudulent emails.

- The head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, has dramatically changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021 upwards. “We are watching one group of investors after another,” he writes. “They were Square, MicroStrategy and Tesla corporations. These were insurance companies Mass Financial and others. These are wealthy people. This is ETF. Suddenly, buying bitcoin is no longer insignificant or risky. On the contrary, it has become risky not to have BTC in the portfolio when central banks continue to print money. Our business at Galaxy is booming. We don't have enough time to hire sales managers to reach all the institutional clients who want to understand and participate in the market."
“It feels like,” says Novogratz, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then the next big jump to $100,000. I will not be surprised if we reach this mark by the end of this year."

- MicroStrategy bought another 328 BTC for $15 million. It is the first purchase of crypto assets in March, following its February acquisitions worth billions of dollars. And now MicroStrategy has about 90,859 BTC purchased for $2.186 billion at an average price of $24,063 per coin.
Earlier, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor said the company will continue to buy digital currency: "We are focusing on two corporate strategies: expanding the enterprise analytics software business and buying and storing bitcoin." Saylor predicts that 7-8 billion people on the planet will have a “bullion of digital gold” in the phone in the long run, which they will use as family savings.

- The Visa payment system is interested in changing the views of bank card holders due to the coronavirus pandemic. For example, a survey it conducted showed that 25% of all credit card holders in South America would like their banks to add the ability of settlements in cryptocurrency. One in four Hispanics expressed a desire to experiment with digital assets and try them out in everyday life.

- Despite the technical limitations for cryptocurrency mining, set in the Sony PlayStation 5 game console, it is quite suitable for this process at the hardware level. This was taken advantage of by a gamer and crypto enthusiast from China named Yifan Gu, who managed to bypass the restrictions and adapted the console for Ethereum mining, gaining a profit of about $50 per week. This is reported by the Gizchina edition.
Earlier, Yifan Gu adapted MacBook Air with Apple M1 chip for mining Ethereum. However, at the current rate of this altcoin, you can earn only $0.14 in one day on the MacBook Air.

- One of the experts in the field of competitive intelligence has suggested that creating and maintaining the long-term hype around bitcoin is not accidental. According to him, in case the American financial elite manages to convince its creditors that having bitcoins is better than dollars, it can transfer all external debt of the US to this cryptocurrency over time. "As soon as this happens, the cryptocurrency will only have to collapse, and America's gigantic debt will actually be zeroed," the expert reflects.

- Cryptocurrency mining requires more and more electricity, which poses a threat to humanity's path to “zero emissions.” This is reported by the Guardian, citing alarming research findings by American scientists. Thus, the amount of energy used to extract bitcoins exceeds the annual energy consumption of entire countries. “We're talking about a few terawatts, tens of terawatts of electricity per year that are used for bitcoin alone,” notes University of New Mexico economics professor Benjamin Jones, calling for measures to regulate cryptocurrency mining to reduce the carbon footprint.

- Financial industry veteran and Fidelity Investments director of macro markets Jurrien Timmer believes that bitcoin has reached the point where it can be considered for investment and hedging inflation risks. “I think gold and bitcoin are great for replacing some of the bonds,” Timmer writes in a paper titled Understanding Bitcoin.
In his opinion, the limit on the maximum number of bitcoins makes this asset very similar to gold. Moreover, the appearance of new bitcoins on the market is constantly slowing down, but the volume of gold production has remained at the same level for half a century.
Timmer's views are in line with those of SkyBridge Capital founders Anthony Scaramucci and Brett Messing. They released an article in January in which they described bitcoin as a mature investment asset, comparable in reliability to gold and bonds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 07, 2021, 03:07:44 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 08 - 12, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. There is a saying, “a new broom sweeps clean”. If the previous US President Donald Trump were in the shoes of Joe Biden now, he would probably call the head of the Fed Jerome Powell a "traitor" for the fact that his speech on Thursday February 04 literally brought down the stock markets of America. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy.
And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the 10-year Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points.
The decline in stock prices is forcing investors to seek refuge in the dollar. As a result, the DXY dollar index reached a three-month high of 91.83 on Thursday, its growth continued Friday, March 05, and the DXY exceeded 92.00 at the time of this writing.
The data from the US labor market added optimism to investors. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) increased from 166K to 379K, with the forecast of 182K. As a result, the forecast, for which the majority (70%) of analysts voted last week, turned out to be absolutely correct: the EUR/USD pair continued its movement to the south, reaching a local bottom at 1.1895 and ending the week slightly higher, at 1.1915;

- GBP/USD. Graphical analysis on D1 suggested last week a sideways movement of the pair within 1.3860-1.4240. However, the channel turned out to be narrower: it was trading in the range of 1.3860-1.4000 until Thursday. And then, thanks to the statement of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell, the dollar began to grow stronger, and the GBP/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to the horizon of 1.3775. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 1.3840;

- USD/JPY. The multi-month downtrend of this pair was stopped on January 6, it reversed and moved north for almost all of 2021. When making a forecast for the last week, a third of the experts sided with the bears, a third took a neutral position, and a third voted for the growth of the pair. And even fewer experts agreed that it would be able to reach the zone 108.00-108.50, they were only 25%. And they were right: the week's high was recorded at 108.60, followed by a slight bounce down and a finish at 108.35.
The reason for the rise of the pair is still the same: against the background of the growth in the yield of American bonds, which outstrips the yield on Japanese securities, investors get rid of such a protective asset with a negative interest rate as the yen. Along with the Japanese currency, gold and the Swiss franc are also particularly affected. In addition, the mentioned statement by Jerome Powell added fuel to the fire, after which the USD/JPY pair reached an eight-month high;

- cryptocurrencies. There is good news for the bulls: Bitcoin hasn't dropped below $43,000. But there is good news for the bears too: Bitcoin has not gone above $52,000. Having drawn a sinusoid, the BTC/USD chart returned on the afternoon of Friday, March 05 to where it started seven days ago. The question of whether this is a correction or the beginning of a new "crypto-winter" remains open.
The news background looks quite controversial as well. Leading payment systems such as Mastercard, Visa and PayPal are playing on the side of the bulls, seeking to attract the "crypto generation". Skrill and Neteller are doing the same. The Opera browser has been enriched with new algorithms that will allow users to perform transactions with many popular cryptocurrencies. Another Opera feature would be creating a digital wallet without going to third-party sites. Such a giant as Google also turned to cryptocurrencies: the Google Finance platform added a tab for monitoring the prices of digital assets.   
User activity is growing. The trading volume on cryptocurrency exchanges in February exceeded $1 trillion. Such numbers were achieved for the first time in history, according to experts. Even during the first bitcoin rally, the trading volume reached only $650 billion. According to experts of the analytical platform Block Research, large investors prefer to carry out transactions from one account to another through third-party services in order to maintain complete anonymity. Therefore, the real number of transactions can even be twice the official amount.
However, not everything is as rosy as it seems at first glance. We already wrote that regulators can (and most likely will) become the main problem for digital assets in 2021.
According to analyst Sven Henrich, the head of the USA Ministry of Finance janet Yellen has actually declared war on bitcoin. Her announcement led to a massive profit taking by the whales on February 21-23, and a sharp 23% drop in bitcoin quotes. And now the North American Association of Securities Administrators (NASAA) has published an annual list of the most dangerous financial products, calling cryptocurrencies the top investment risk this year.
In the framework of the struggle of states for control over financial flows, one should not forget about the imminent appearance of the digital yuan, which can deal a serious blow to bitcoin. The United States and a number of other countries do not exclude the possibility of launching their own digital currencies (CBDC) as well.
In the meantime, as we wrote above, the market is at a crossroads. The total market capitalization for the week grew very slightly: from $1,410 billion to $1,444 billion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index left the neutral zone (55) again and headed towards the overbought zone, reaching 77 points out of 100 possible.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Judging by the latest indicators, the US economy is doing much better. Vaccinations are in full swing, the labor market is recovering, and GDP in the first quarter is ready to grow by almost 10%. According to Jerome Powell, consumer prices may even slightly exceed the target level of 2% as early as this summer.
However, there is still a long way to a complete recovery. It is this weekend, March 06-07, that the Senate will begin voting on amendments to the budget. And if legislators approve them, US citizens will receive a new gratuitous aid of $1,400 per person, and the overall stimulus package (QE) will amount to $1.9 trillion.
This injection of almost 2 trillion new dollars into the market could cause a serious weakening of the US currency and a return of risk appetite for investors. In this case, the sell-off of shares will stop and stock indices will go up again.
When making a forecast for the coming days, most experts (60%) do not exclude the continuation of the downtrend and the fall of the EUR/USD pair to the zone 1.1800. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are looking down. But the remaining 25% is already signaling that the pair is oversold.
The picture changes radically with the transition to monthly and quarterly forecasts. Here 70% of analysts expect that the scales will tilt towards the euro after the $1.9 trillion in aid appears on the US market, and the pair will go up. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270.
As for the events of the coming week, the publication of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday March 09, statistics on the US consumer market on Wednesday March 10, and Germany on Friday March 12, as well as the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate on Thursday March 11should be considered. According to forecasts, the rate is likely to remain unchanged, at zero. Therefore, the press conference of the ECB leadership, which will be held on the same day, will be of greater interest;

- GBP/USD. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey is scheduled to speak on Monday, March 8, where he intends to outline the main parameters of the country's monetary policy while it tries to cope with the financial damage caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to ING analysts, “overall, fiscal support should highlight the constructive prospects for the pound sterling in the second quarter of 2021. Further fiscal assistance will contribute to economic recovery and make the pound sterling a leader in the currency market of the G10 countries."
But until this happens, 50% of analysts expect that the GBP/USD pair will break through the support in the 1.3775-1.3800 area and rush to the 1.3600-1.3760 zone. This forecast is supported by 85% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4, but only 65% of their “colleagues” on D1.
25% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on both timeframes, expect the pair to grow, and another 25% have taken a neutral position. At the same time, as in the case of EUR/USD and for the same reasons, the number of bulls' supporters increases to 60% when switching to the monthly forecast. The resistance levels are 1.3900, 1.3950, 1.4000, 1.4085 and 1.4185, the target is the February 24 high of 1.4240;
(https://i.imgur.com/LLhqUHy.jpg)

- USD/JPY. After the pair literally soared by 215 points last week and reached eight-month highs, it is clear that 100% of the trend indicators are colored green. But as for the oscillators, 35% are already signaling fully that it is overbought. Graphical analysis also points to the south. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation.
As for the experts, the scales have already begun to tilt in favor of a downward correction: there are 50% of bears' supporters now. 25% expect the USD/JPY pair to continue to rise, and another 25% remain neutral. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone. Support levels are 108.00, 106.70, 106.10 and 105.70; Resistance - 109.80;

 - cryptocurrencies. A Glassnode study found that only 4 million bitcoins are in free float on the market. The third halving in May 2020 halved the miners' reward for the mined block from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC. It further enhances the shortage of coins in the market. And as you know, it is the limited emission of bitcoin that is one of its main advantages over gold and fiat currencies.
“Suddenly, buying bitcoin is no longer insignificant or risky,” wrote Mike Novogratz, head of Galaxy Digital crypto bank. On the contrary, it has become risky not to have BTC in the portfolio when central banks continue to print money. We don't have enough time to hire sales managers to reach all the institutional clients who want to understand and participate in the market."
Even such a supporter of gold as Euro Pacific Capital president Peter Schiff has supported Novogratz. It was just recently, that this bitcoin skeptic called bitcoin the largest bubble in history and unflatteringly spoke about the mental abilities of cryptocurrency investors. And now he has admitted his mistake. “When I first heard about bitcoin, I didn't think that smart investors would be stupid enough to buy bitcoin. I was wrong," Schiff wrote.
Going back tothe head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, we should note that he has dramatically changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021 upwards.  “It feels like,” says the banker, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000. I will not be surprised if we reach this mark by the end of this year."
An unexpected conspiracy forecast was given by an expert in the field of competitive intelligence. He believes the creation and support of the Bitcoin hype for years is no coincidence. In case the American financial elite manages to convince its creditors that having bitcoins is better than dollars, it can transfer all external debt of the US to this cryptocurrency over time. "As soon as this happens, the cryptocurrency will only have to collapse, and America's gigantic debt will actually be zeroed," the expert reflects.
Time will tell whether it is true or not. In the meantime, events in the US stock market play one of the leading roles in influencing bitcoin. Recall that about a year ago, the fall in the stock market due to the panic around the COVID-19 pandemic provoked a collapse of the cryptocurrency market.
And in conclusion, another funny crypto life hack. We have already talked about an American fortune teller who predicts bitcoin rates by observing the movement of the planets. There was also a story about another resident of the United States who placed a mining farm in the trunk of his BMW. The farm receives energy from the car's battery, to which it is connected using a DC inverter, which allows the owner to mine cryptocurrency while the car is moving.
And now a gamer and crypto enthusiast from China named Yifan Gu has become known. He managed to bypass the technical limitations for cryptocurrency mining, set in the Sony PlayStation 5, and adapted this game console for Ethereum mining, gaining a profitability of about $50 per week. Earlier, Yifan Gu adapted his MacBook Air with Apple M1 chip for mining this leading altcoin. However, at the ETH current rate, you can earn only $0.14 in one day on the MacBook Air.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Online forex on March 07, 2021, 07:53:06 PM
Nice
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 10, 2021, 03:43:03 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/bReeqGD.jpg)

- The price of bitcoin at the moment is most correlated with real estate prices, and in the future, bitcoin will become similar to low-risk instruments like bonds and will enter the recommended portfolio of investors. This was announced by the head of ARK Investment Cathie Wood on CNBC. “I think the first cryptocurrency will behave like fixed income markets,” Wood said. “We have survived a 40-year bond bull market. And we won't be surprised if this new asset class becomes part of the investment portfolio. Perhaps it will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20% cryptocurrency.” Renowned bitcoin critic Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, called Wood's predictions "outrageous."

- The US Internal Revenue Service (IRS) sent out letters to cryptocurrency holders demanding to pay off large debts to the state. And now, according to Forbes, this agency has launched Hidden Treasure operation to search for residents who hide their income from transactions with digital assets. According to IRS legal counsel Carolyn Shank, the agency is working with private contractors to identify clear signs of violations. "We see you," Shank added menacingly.

- One of the oldest private banks in Germany, Donner & Reuschel, headquartered in Hamburg, is going to add services for the purchase and storage of crypto assets for its clients. Due to high demand, it is planned to launch these services “as soon as possible,” the bank said in a statement.
Donner & Reuschel was founded in 1798 and manages assets worth about $10.7 billion. The bank plans to "intensively engage" in asset tokenization in the future in order to keep up with changes in the financial industry. “We are observing the digital asset market and are convinced of the potential of blockchain, including in relation to traditional securities transactions,” said Marcus Vitt, spokesman for the bank's board.

- The entrepreneur and creator of the famous antivirus, John McAfee, has been charged with fraud and money laundering, and now faces up to 100 years in prison. The case will be considered by the Court of the Southern District of New York. Recall that McAfee was arrested in Spain in October 2020, and now he is awaiting extradition to the United States. Another person involved in the process will be the executive advisor of the cryptocurrency team of the entrepreneur Jimmy Gail Watson Jr., who has been recently taken into custody.
The first charge concerns the manipulative appreciation of altcoins using the Pump&Dump scheme on Twitter. McAfee posted tweets advertising certain coins, leading to an active increase in their price. When quotes peaked, members of McAfee's team sold these altcoins and took profits. Another issue concerns undisclosed fees for participating in the ICO promotion.
“McAfee and Watson made nearly $2 million by using social media to perform Pump&Dump schemes. They also used the same platform to promote tokens without disclosing information about the reward received from the ICO organizers. This brought them another $11 million,” the prosecutor's office said in a statement.

- Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly popular asset among a wide variety of categories of investors and is gradually replacing gold in their portfolios. This is stated in the February report of analysts from Bloomberg.
“The process of replacing gold in [investors'] portfolios with bitcoin is accelerating and we are seeing the risks decrease. In 2020, the cryptocurrency became attractive because of the decrease in its volatility compared to the previous year,” the authors of the report emphasize. The shrinking range of price fluctuations signals that bitcoin has actually become an alternative to traditional investment assets.
Bloomberg team is also positive about the further rate of the main cryptocurrency. After the coin broke above $50,000, it got the opportunity to test higher values. Demand for this asset is increasing, and its macroeconomic indicators are improving. According to Bloomberg analysts' forecasts, bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year. In the long term, the growth of its value will also continue, according to the authors of the study.

- According to venture capital pioneer Tim Draper, Netflix could be the next big company to invest in bitcoin. Since bitcoin can provide a hedge against the inflationary risks associated with dollar, Draper doesn't rule out cryptocurrencies as the perfect solution for someone like Netflix founder Reed Hastings.
Hastings is a great innovator with a lot of creative ideas, and since he has power in the company, he may decide to invest some of his funds in bitcoin. According to Draper, Google may follow suit, but it is more likely that companies like Google, Facebook or Apple will want to issue their own cryptocurrencies without being tied to bitcoin.

- The forecast, according to which the bitcoin rate may reach $1 million or more in the next 10 years, was announced by the CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange Jesse Powell. In a dialogue with Bloomberg reporters, he also said that bitcoin could eventually replace all major fiat currencies that are not backed by gold and other precious metals.
“Right now we are only guessing, but if you value bitcoin in dollars, then you must understand that its value tends to infinity. True "believers" will tell you that it will reach the Moon, Mars and eventually become the world's currency," said the head of Kraken. However, he agreed that there is a risk of sharp market fluctuations, and that prices could "rise or fall by 50% any day." Therefore, the term of an investment in bitcoin, according to Powell, should be at least five years.

- According to a number of futuristic experts, bitcoin will continue to grow, but due to its architecture, it will eventually burst and depreciate.
The rise in the cost of bitcoin is hardwired into its mathematics, according to Singularity University expert Evgeny Kuznetsov, and the cost of electricity required for mining is constantly growing. Already, this process consumes energy comparable to that of the Netherlands. At some point, it will require the energy of the whole world to generate just one unit. That is, there is a limitation for the growth of bitcoin: it is blocked by the amount of energy consumption. But this will not happen soon, not in a year or two, and until that moment it will be possible to make huge capital on it, the futurologist believes.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 12, 2021, 07:39:55 AM
February 2021 Results: NordFX Traders Name Gold and Bitcoin as Leaders Again


NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in February. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The first line in the rating of the most successful traders has been taken once again by a client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, who received a profit of USD 29,880 on trades, most of which were carried out in pairs with gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD). The same trader was in the lead a month ago with an income of 83.598 USD obtained on transactions with the same two trading instruments.

The second place has been taken by a client from China, account No. 1536XXX. The client earned 23,640 USD in February, and their earnings were also based on operations with gold.

But the trader who took the third step of the podium (account No. 1503XXX) used a variety of trading instruments (GBP/AUD, AUD/NZD, EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, CAD/CHF and AUD/USD), and achieved no less impressive success. Their profit for February was USD 20,716.

According to the results of the shortest month of the year, a competition unfolded among signal providers in the CopyTrading service. Let's list the TOP-3 of February: RichieFX-EA (profit 188%, maximum drawdown 49%), GOLD RUSH Inc. (profit 129%, drawdown 51%) and VN.NO1 (profit 110%, drawdown 31%).

As for PAMM, the past month was not as successful, but if you look at the entire investment period, then, for example, the manager under the nickname WyseTrader9711 showed a profit of 61.45% with a maximum drawdown of 15.7%, and the results of the ProCapital manager were 24.9% with a drawdown of only 9.8%, which is several times higher than the income on bank deposits in USD.

Commission fees of NordFX IB-partners almost doubled in February compared to January, which indicates a serious growth in trading activity. The TOP 3 of the month is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 17282, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1527xxx;
- next is a partner from Sri lanka, account number 1483xxx, who received 11.749 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx, who received 11.233 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 14, 2021, 12:50:00 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 15-19, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Recall that   the head of the Fed Jerome Powell literally brought down the American stock markets with his speech on February 4. Powell stayed indifferent to the surge in US Treasury yields, which closed at an annual high. At the same time, he hinted at the possibility of premature tightening of monetary policy.
And although the head of the Fed stressed that the economy is far from overheating, and he does not yet see the need to raise the interest rate, the market has had a hint of a possible change in monetary policy. In response, the Treasury yields rushed up with the dollar, and the stock market rolled down. The S&P500 lost over 120 points and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost over 300 points.
And then, everything changed on Tuesday March 09. Strong growth in technology stocks, positive statistics from the labor market, growth in household assets and a bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new stimulus package for $1.9 trillion pushed the American stock market up. The S&P500 index not only fully recovered from losses, but also updated its historical high, reaching the mark of 3.960. As for long-term treasuries, their profitability, on the contrary, has stabilized. And this despite the fact that the volume of submitted applications exceeded the volume of the issue by 2.38 times, and foreign investors purchased about 20% of securities of the total volume of $38 billion.
The EUR/USD pair reached a height of 1.1990 on Thursday March 11 due to these factors. However, it failed to reach the 1.2000 level. The fall of the pair and the weakening of the euro was facilitated by the statement of the ECB management on the increase in the rate of buying bonds under the PEPP (Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program). But it turned out to be not convincing enough, and nothing was said about scaling up the PEPP. As a result, the fall of the pair was insignificant, and it ended the week at the level of 1.1950;   

- GBP/USD. More and more experts are wondering if the pound has passed its high on February 24. Is it time to consolidate with the dollar? The British currency has shown an impressive growth of 2830 points against its American “colleague” (from 1.1410 to 1.4240) starting from the third decade of March 2020. And we have been observing the sideways movement of the GBP/USD pair along the Pivot Point of 1.3900 for the last two weeks. The upper border of the trading range is drawn quite clearly: this is the resistance at 1.4000. Two support levels can be considered as the lower one: the nearest one - 1.3850 and the next one - 1.3775.
The GBP/USD chart of the last week is very similar to the EUR/USD chart. This suggests that both the pound and the euro are not so much independent players in the market now as hostages of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and rates on US government bonds. Having started the five-day week at 1.3840, the pair was moving within the above range for the whole week, and set the last chord at 1.3925;
 
- USD/JPY. The yen has passed one milestone after another in recent weeks, and the USD/JPY pair reached the eight-month highs. Many traders are afraid to open both long and short positions in such a situation. On the one hand, the pair was already overbought, and on the other, it could still fly further upward by inertia. This is what happened in fact: it first rose to the level of 109.25, then a correction to 108.35 followed, and a new rise to the horizon of 109.00, where the pair ended the working week; 

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin peaked at $58,340 on February 21, after which it pulled back to $43,160, shrinking by 26%. According to Material Indicators, this decline was used by whales and institutions to buy assets from small investors. For example, the number of orders for the purchase of BTC in the amount from $0.1 million to $1 million reached record values on the Binance crypto exchange. And now, twenty days later, on March 12, Bitcoin broke the $58,000 bar again. However, at the time of writing the review, It could not update the historical high, stopping at $58,240
The BTC/USD pair rose last week amid the rise in the US stock market. Although, most likely, this is only a formal reason, and not a real reason for the activation of the bulls. It was clear that they would definitely make an attempt to rise above $60,000. And the only question was when it would happen.
According to CryptoQuant, the demand for bitcoins continues to grow, and their number on exchanges has fallen to a two-year low. As Bloomberg experts point out in their February report, bitcoin is becoming an increasingly popular asset among a wide variety of investors and is gradually replacing gold from their portfolios. According to the authors of the report, the reduction in the range of price fluctuations signals that the main cryptocurrency has actually become an alternative to traditional investment assets.
The overall capitalization of the crypto market is also committed to new heights, along with bitcoin. It grew from $1444 billion to $1756 billion over the week. And now the volume of $2 trillion will become an important psychological level for it.
Interestingly, despite the weekly growth of the BTC/USD pair by 20%, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, on the contrary, fell from 77 to 70, which may indicate the general bullish mood of the market.
And another interesting observation. Bitcoin's market dominance has declined from 70.4% to 61.4% since early 2021. The indicators of altcoins from the TOP-10 have also gone down or remained at the same levels. But the total capitalization of smaller tokens has risen from 10.3% to 14.4%. It is unlikely that these coins can arouse the interest of large investors. Therefore, such statistics can only indicate that players have begun to use them more actively for short-term speculation.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR / USD A meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on March 16-17. We are waiting for the Summary of Economic Forecasts from the Open Market Committee (FOMC), the decision on the interest rate, commentary on monetary policy and a press conference by the Fed management following the meeting. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, the regulator's forecasts will be of particular interest. High expectations will once again highlight the gap between the pace of economic recovery in the US and the Eurozone. Investors will also be concerned about the possibility of tightening monetary policy and the attitude of the Fed management to changes in government bond yields. Consolidation of 10-year yields in the 1.5-1.6% range will help the stock market and push the EUR/USD pair above 1.2000.
So far, the advantage is on the side of the dollar. 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 85% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators on D1, expect the pair to drop to the 1.1800-1.1850 zone. Support here is still the 200-day SMA at 1.1826. The nearest support is 1.1900.
An alternative view is held by 30% of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on H4. As for the technical indicators on this time frame, their readings are still confusing. Note that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of experts supporting bulls increases to 60%. Resistance levels are 1.2025, 1.2060, 1.2170, 1.2200 and 1.2270;
(https://i.imgur.com/UyfUqrU.jpg)

- GBP/USD. In addition to the meeting of the US Fed, a meeting of the Bank of England will take place on Thursday March 18. It is likely that its results will not affect investors as much as those of their peers on the other side of the Atlantic. However, information on the course of the British economic recovery and its prospects will certainly be given. The market will also be concerned about what is going on in relations with the European Union after Brexit.
The opinions of experts are divided equally at the moment. A third of them, together with graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair will hold within the 1.3775-1.4000 trading range. Another third, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expects a rise to the February 24 high of 1.4240. And finally, the remaining third is waiting for the pair to fall to the 1.3600 zone;

- USD/JPY. It should become clear in the coming week whether the Japanese currency will stop its decline, and the USD/JPY pair - its rapid rise. There are three determinant factors: the yield of American bonds, the US Federal Reserve meeting and the meeting of the Bank of Japan on Friday, March 19, at which it should determine its policy for the near future.
The rise in US bond yields is pushing the yen down, and the Japanese regulator is expected to react to this catastrophic collapse. Whether the BOJ will insist on controlling the yield curve is open for now.
It should be noted that the last fall in the yen and the growth of USD/JPY on March 12 took place at increased volumes. This indicates that the interest of major players in the continuation of the uptrend of the pair has still not dried up. The trend can be reversed down by either the consolidation of the yield on US securities, or an active sale of risky assets.
But at the time of this writing, 55% of experts expect that the pair will still be able to rise to the 109.50-110.00 zone. 20% are in favor of sideways movement and 25% are for the fall of the pair. Almost 100% of the trend indicators on both H4 and D1 are painted red. Among the oscillators on H4, there are 80% of those, but on D1, 35% are already giving signals that the pair is overbought, which indicates an imminent possible downward correction. In the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, 80% of analysts are already expecting the pair to decline and return to the 105.00 zone,. Support levels are 108.35, 106.65, 106.10 and 105.70;

 - cryptocurrencies. Recall that in early March, the head of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz sharply changed the forecast for the BTC rate for the end of 2021.  “It feels like,” said the banker, “we’ll stay for a bit between $42,000 and $60,000, and then see the next big jump to $100,000.
The Bloomberg team is also positive about the further rate of the main cryptocurrency. "After the coin broke above $50,000, it got the opportunity to test higher values. Demand for this asset is increasing, and its macroeconomic indicators are improving,” they say in their February report. According to Bloomberg analysts, bitcoin will be able to reach $100,000 this year, and its value will also continue to rise in the long term.
So how long will bitcoin hang out, in Mike Novogratz's words, between $42,000 and $60,000? Or are we on the eve of the big jump?
A number of experts are pessimistic. As the reason, they point to miners who are buying more and more video cards on new chips, which leads to higher prices and a shortage of such cards on the market. This situation is somewhat reminiscent of the end of December 2017 - January 2018, when the mining boom ended with a market collapse, the destruction of many miners and the onset of a crypto winter. There may not be a new winter this time, experts say, but strong frosts are not entirely out of the question.
In the longer term, electricity costs for mining will also hinder the growth of digital assets. They are constantly growing, and this process consumes energy comparable to that of a country like the Netherlands already. At some point, it will require the energy of the whole world to generate just one unit. And this, according to futurologists from Singularity University, will become an insurmountable obstacle for the crypto market.
However, if there are bear pessimists, then there will certainly be bull optimists. So, according to the head of ARK Investment Cathie Wood, the price of bitcoin is most correlated with real estate prices  at the moment. But in the future, she believes, bitcoin will become similar to low-risk instruments like bonds and will enter the recommended portfolio of investors. “I think the first cryptocurrency will behave like fixed income markets,” Wood said to CNBC. “We have survived a 40-year bond bull market. And we won't be surprised if this new asset class becomes part of the investment portfolio. Perhaps it will be 60% stocks, 20% bonds and 20% cryptocurrency.”
The forecast, according to which the bitcoin rate may reach $1 million or more in the next 10 years, was announced by the CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange Jesse Powell. “Right now we are only guessing, but if you value bitcoin in dollars, then you must understand that its value tends to infinity", he said. In a dialogue with Bloomberg reporters, the head of Kraken also said that bitcoin could eventually replace all major fiat currencies that are not backed by gold and other precious metals. However, he agreed that there is a risk of sharp market fluctuations, and that prices could "rise or fall by 50% any day." Therefore, according to Powell, when investing in bitcoin, it is necessary to be ready to keep it in your portfolio for at least five years.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 17, 2021, 04:38:02 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/GUYmQ9l.jpg)

- Co-founder of Oaktree Capital investment company Howard Marks, with a fortune of $2.1 billion, has dramatically changed his attitude towards bitcoin. Marks called crypto currencies "unfounded fads" in 2017 The investor said that there are many things in the world that have no intrinsic value, but people want to possess them. And bitcoin is one of those things. Now the billionaire has admitted that those words were an “knee-Knock-out option reaction” to innovation about which he had not yet had a clear idea.
Now the head of Oaktree Capital realized that bitcoin really has a lot of potential and even described the advantages of the first cryptocurrency. The most important advantage of Bitcoin according to Marks is the ability to trade it 24 hours a day while maintaining confidentiality. In addition, bitcoin has a limited supply of 21 million coins, which increases demand for them and contributes to a rise in prices. The same cannot be said for the US dollar and other fiat currencies, which are printed in huge quantities by central banks, Marks noted.

- A 38-year-old hairdresser was arrested in Romania on suspicion of stealing about $620,000 in cryptocurrency. Law enforcers found out that the detainee not only worked as a hairdresser, but also was engaged in the creation of malicious software. He hacked a large money transfer operator with its help and transferred $620 thousand to his own account in several dozen transactions.

- "Hyperinflationary collapse" of national currencies will lead to the growth of bitcoin to $220,000 this year. This is the opinion of Max Kaiser, a former trader, TV presenter and founder of the investment company Heisenberg Capital. Among other things, Kaiser is a longtime supporter of bitcoin and is known for his criticism of American economic and political models. Last summer, when the cryptocurrency was trading for about $10 thousand, he predicted its growth to $100 thousand. And, as it turned out, this was not the most daring prediction of the TV presenter.
Kaiser believes that the advantages of bitcoin in global payments make banks useless. “$5 trillion a day in the foreign exchange market can be completely replaced by bitcoin. We have realized that now it is possible to send currency from country to country instantly and practically free of charge," Kaiser said.

- Digital currencies have reached the world of sports. US fans of the Oakland Athletics California baseball team can now pay for private lodges in bitcoin. The 2021 Home Team Six-Seater Lodge Pass can be purchased for $64,800 or 1 BTC. Given the fact that at the time of writing the review, bitcoin is trading at around $55,000, it is more profitable to pay for a ticket in cryptocurrency.
The president of the club said in a comment to Sportico that the management of Oakland Athletics took such a step due to the growing popularity of cryptocurrency in California. “It is also a kind of check to see if we want to do this in other areas of our business,” he said.

- The Indian authorities will consider a bill prohibiting operations with cryptocurrencies and introducing criminal and administrative liability for miners and traders. This is reported by Reuters with reference to an unnamed high-ranking official.
The document instructs citizens to liquidate their digital assets within six months. After this period, it is proposed to levy fines from the owners. In the future, prison terms are provided for the possession, release, production, trading and transfer of crypto assets. The official refused to disclose the amount of the fines and the terms of imprisonment. However, according to him, the discussion of the document is at the final stage.
There is no official data, but according to industry estimates, about 8 million investors in India own digital assets totaling $1.4 billion at the moment.

- The author of the famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad Robert Kiyosaki has called to buy gold and bitcoin. He made this statement after the decision of the US government to allocate another $1.9 trillion to support the economy.  The economist does not exclude that the dollar will be in a state of devaluation after such large-scale injections, as a result of which many investors will begin to switch to digital assets.
At the end of last year, the author of the bestselling book stated that the cost of bitcoin would soon reach $50 thousand. And it happened about a month later. A year earlier, Kiyosaki predicted that the US currency would face serious problems amid the pandemic. As a result, the dollar did accelerate the drawdown, and many stock market indices fell to lows.

- According to JPMorgan, the volume of retail investment in bitcoin in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded the investment of institutional investors, who reduced the volume of cryptocurrency purchases. Thus, retail investors purchased over 187,000 BTC tokens, while institutional purchases amounted to approximately 172,684 BTC.
According to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the decline in institutional investment may be one of the reasons bitcoin has not been able to gain a foothold above $60,000 so far. All the attention is focused on the growth of retail investment now, especially given the new round of direct payments to US citizens as part of the economic stimulus program.

- According to a study by Mizuho Securities, of the $380 billion that US citizens will receive in the form of economic assistance, about 10% can be spent on the purchase of two types of assets: bitcoin and stocks. The study found that two out of five Americans who expect to receive checks in the coming days intend to use some of these funds for investment. According to Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, bitcoin is expected to account for 60% of the total investment, which could add about 3% to the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency.

- Bitcoin has become the most profitable investment in the last 10 years and surpassed all asset classes by at least 10 times, providing an average annual return of 230%. Charlie Bilello, founder and CEO of Compound Capital Advisors wrote about this achievement.
The Nasdaq 100 came in second with an annualized return of 20%, followed by US stocks with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion with an annualized return of 14%.
Also, studies have shown that gold has shown a meager return of 1.5% per annum since 2011, and five of the last 11 years have brought losses to this asset. The precious metal has dropped 8.5% since early 2021, according to Gold Price, much to the chagrin of an implacable bitcoin critic and gold investor, President of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff.
Since 2011, BTC's combined profit has been a whopping 20 million percent. 2013 was the most successful year for bitcoin as it grew by 5507%. In addition, it is important to note that BTC has shown an annualized loss in just two years of its history: it fell 58% in 2014 and 73% in 2018.

- Spencer Schiff has decided to move his entire portfolio to bitcoin. His father, the aforementioned Peter Schiff, shared this with his Twitter readers. He expressed concern about the manipulation of fragile minds during a bull rally in the cryptocurrency market.
The famous bitcoin critic clarified that his son sold the remaining silver to buy the first cryptocurrency. “My son went for broke the last time bitcoin dropped below $50,000. 100% of his portfolio is now in Bitcoin. If my son has been so brainwashed, imagine how vulnerable most children are. He will "hodl" bitcoin indefinitely or go broke. "
The crypto community has responded positively to the complaints of the "golden beetle", expressing confidence that investing in bitcoin will make Schiff's son richer than his father. “At least someone in your family will increase their wealth this year,” wrote Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 22, 2021, 06:34:16 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 22 - 26, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. It has become clear following the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) that the US Federal Reserve does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either, as long as inflation in the United States is growing, the manufacturing sector is recovering, and is pulling up the service sector. The bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new $1.9 trillion package, according to the Fed, is quite a sufficient measure to stimulate the economy at this stage.
This position of the American regulator satisfied (or upset) both bulls and bears on the EUR/USD pair to the same extent, and as a result the pair spent the whole week in a narrow sideways channel with an amplitude of only 110 points, 1.1875-1.1985, and ended the trading session near the 1.1900 level;

- GBP/USD. As mentioned above, the US Fed refused to adjust its monetary policy. But the management of the Bank of England refused to do the same unanimously at its meeting on Thursday March 18. According to their statement, the bank "does not intend to tighten monetary policy at least until there is clear evidence of the use of untapped potential and the achievement of the 2 percent inflation target." So, one should not expect a rise in interest rates on the pound.
As a result of the identical decisions of both regulators, the GBP/USD pair continued to move sideways. Recall that last week, a third of experts voted for the growth of the pair, a third - for its fall, and the remaining third made a Solomon decision, announcing that the pair would move eastward, limiting the growth by the resistance at 1.4000, and the fall by the support at 1.3775. And this forecast turned out to be almost perfect. The fluctuations of the pair were limited to the range of 1.3800-1.4000. The last chord sounded at 1.3865;

- USD/JPY. The Japanese regulator also performed in a chorus with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. The Bank of Japan left the interest rate at the same negative level, minus 0.1%, on Friday, March 19. At the same time, it will continue to buy back long-term bonds in order to maintain the yield on its 10-year securities at near zero. The statements of the Bank's management regarding the prospects for monetary policy were also consonant vague with the statements of their colleagues from the USA and Great Britain: “we are ready for changes as needed”. It is not specified what the criteria for such "necessity" are.
The result of such a “sluggish” week was the consolidation of the USD/JPY pair in an even narrower range than EUR/USD and GBP/USD. After holding in the channel 108.60-109.35 for all the five days, it finished at 108.87;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin renewed its all-time high once again over the past week, reaching $61,670. This was followed by a quick rollback. However, the main currency managed to stay within the upward channel, having received support at its lower border, in the $53,300-53,900 zone. This correction attracted buyers waiting for a new opportunity for their purchases, and the BTC/USD pair is trading around $58,500 on the evening of Friday March 19.
One of the reasons that bitcoin has not yet been able to gain a foothold above $60,000, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, was a decrease in institutional investment. Thus, the volume of retail investment in bitcoin in the first quarter of 2021 exceeded the investment of institutional investors, who reduced the volume of cryptocurrency purchases. Retail investors purchased over 187,000 BTC tokens, while institutional purchases amounted to approximately 172,684 BTC.
According to Compound Capital Advisors investment company calculations, bitcoin has become the most profitable investment in the last 10 years and has surpassed all asset classes by at least 10 times, providing an average annual return of 230%. The Nasdaq 100 came in second with an annualized return of 20%, followed by US stocks with a market capitalization of more than $10 billion with an annualized return of 14%. Also, studies have shown that gold has shown a meager return of 1.5% per annum since 2011, and five of the last 11 years have brought losses to this asset.
Since 2011, BTC's combined profit has been a whopping 20 million percent. 2013 was the most successful year for bitcoin as it grew by 5507%. In addition, it is important to note that BTC has shown an annualized loss in just two years of its history: it fell 58% in 2014 and 73% in 2018.
All these figures are impressive for some, and they are intimidating for others. For example, the head of the Visa payment giant agreed that cryptocurrencies could become widespread over the next 5 years. In addition to JPMorgan, the largest American bank Morgan Stanley has shown loyalty to digital assets, promising to provide its large clients with the opportunity to own bitcoin.
But Bank of America published the report "Little Dirty Secrets of Bitcoin" on March 17, in which it announced that this token is an exclusively speculative instrument. "Without rising prices, there is no reason to own this cryptocurrency," the report says. "The asset is impractical either as a store of value, or as a method of payment, and 95% of Bitcoin belongs to the owners of 2.4% of wallets." The bankers recalled the negative impact of BTC on the environment due to high energy costs for mining as well as the low transaction speed. Although, one can guess that it is not this that worries them most of all, but the prospect of losing a significant share of income due to the development of the crypto market.
Note that the total capitalization of the crypto market over the last week increased from $1756 billion to $1805 billion. However, it could not break through the important psychological level of $2 trillion: the maximum value of $1851 billion was reached on March 14, after which the indicators fell slightly. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it practically did not change over the week: 71 now versus 70 seven days ago.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. In general, both experts and indicators have a bearish mood. Despite the US Federal Reserve's refusal to raise interest rates until 2023, investors are still guided by a favorable economic scenario. Mass vaccinations and direct payments to US citizens should support the dollar, even though some of that $380 bn will be invested in riskier assets. 
Most analysts (65%) expect the dollar to strengthen in the coming week. In their opinion, the EUR/USD pair should retest the support of 1.1835. The bearish forecast is also supported by 65% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on time frames H4 and D1. Recall that, from the point of view of technical analysis, the support level here is still the 200-day SMA at 1.1825. In case of its breakthrough, the next targets will be 1.1800 and 1.1745. The ultimate target is the lows of September-November 2020 around 1.1600.
As for the bulls, the resistance levels here are 1.1980, 1.2025, 1.2060 and 1.2100. And if the bullish forecast is supported by only 35% of experts now, the balance of forces changes in a mirror-like manner when switching to the forecast for April: it is already 65% who support the growth of the pair and only 35% are for its fall.
Graphic analysis also points to the pair falling. And also, not immediately. At first, according to its readings, having fought off the zone 1.1880-1.1900, the pair should rise to the level of 1.1980, and only then go south.
As for the events of the coming week, Jerome Powell's numerous speeches on March 22, 23 and 24 could be noted. However, the head of the FRS is unlikely to say anything new: everything important was already said last week. Therefore, we advise you to pay attention to the data on business activity of Markit of Germany and the Eurozone, which will be announced on Wednesday March 24. As for the American statistics, data on orders for durable goods will be published on the same day, and annual data on GDP of the United States the next day.

- GBP/USD. The head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is also scheduled to speak on March 23 and 25. And just like in the case of his colleague from overseas, Jerome Powell, no surprises from his speeches should be expected. Of interest may be: data on the UK labour market March 23, and data on business activity and consumer market of this country on March 25.
It is clear that the technical indicators on the GBP/USD pair on H4 are looking to the south. However, they reflect the trend of only the last two days of the past week. As for the indicators on D1, there is complete discord: the two-week sideways trend is getting visible. Graphical analysis on both time frames also indicates a sideways trend in the trading range of a week ago - 1.3775-1.4000. There is no serious preponderance in the forecasts of experts: 45% side with the bulls, 55% side with the bears. The targets are 1.4240 and 1.3600, respectively;

- USD/JPY. The further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair is indicated by graphical analysis at both time intervals, H4 and D1. 85% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1 agree with it. The rest of the oscillators are either in the overbought zone or are already colored red.
As for the experts, 55% of them expect a correction to the south, although they agree that it may be short-term. However, with the transition to monthly and quarterly forecasts, the number of supporters of the fall of the pair increases to 75%.
The nearest target of the bulls is 109.50-110.00. Support levels in case the pair falls are 108.35, 106.65, 106.10 and 105.70;

 - cryptocurrencies. The struggle between those who believe in the bright future of cryptocurrency and those who predict its destruction continues. This is especially noticeable among large institutional investors. And their opinion depends largely on the opinion of regulators.
The position of regulators in different countries is very different. For example, the Indian authorities have a bill nearly ready which prohibits operations with cryptocurrencies and introduces criminal and administrative liability for miners and traders. And the US head of the Fed Jerome Powell, on the contrary, does not deny the combination of traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. Although, of course, most likely he is pinning his hopes on the digital currency of the American Central Bank (CDBC).
Note that the governments of many large countries are considering the possibility of issuing digital counterparts of their own fiat currencies. And, most likely, they do not need competitors in the form of bitcoin and top altcoins at all. So, it is possible that we will see real battles between the public and private sectors in the near future, not only at national, but also at international platforms.
In the meantime, central banks continue to print unsecured money to support their economies in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. And according to the TV presenter and founder of the investment company Heisenberg Capital Max Kaiser, this will lead to a "hyperinflationary collapse" of national currencies and the growth of bitcoin to $220,000 already this year. Moreover, Kaiser believes that the advantages of bitcoin in global payments will render banks useless. As he stated, “$5 trillion a day in the foreign exchange market could be completely replaced by bitcoin.”
At the moment, according to analysts at JPMorgan, the main focus is on the growth of retail investment associated with the next portion of payments to US citizens as part of the economic stimulus program. According to a study by Mizuho Securities, of the $380 billion that US citizens will receive in the form of economic assistance, about 10% can be spent on the purchase of two types of assets: bitcoin and stocks. The study found that two out of five Americans who expect to receive checks in the coming days intend to use some of these funds for investment. According to Dan Dolev, Managing Director of Mizuho Securities, bitcoin is expected to account for 60% of the total investment, which could add about 3% to the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency.
Of course, 3% is a small figure. Perhaps that is why only 35% of experts believe that the main cryptocurrency will be able to steadily gain a foothold above $60,000 by the end of spring and even rise to $75,000. The majority of analysts (65%) predict bitcoin a sideways movement in the $50,000-60,000 channel.
(https://i.imgur.com/2hglsKQ.png)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 24, 2021, 05:40:55 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/sikyGee.jpg)

- The head of the now defunct brokerage firm Stratton Oakmont, Jordan Belfort, who was a prototype for the protagonist of the movie "The Wolf of Wall Street", admitted that he held the wrong position in relation to the bitcoin. This is reported by the Fortune magazine. Digital gold seemed to be the perfect tool for money laundering, and the former broker was sure that regulators would destroy it.
Belfort remembered predicting the fall of the first cryptocurrency on a TV show in 2017. At that time, the asset was rising to the $ 19,000 mark. “I turned out to be right then,” he recalls. “But I also thought bitcoin would go away forever. It was difficult to sell and easy to buy: these are all signs of manipulation." Now, according to Jordan Belfort, the coin could rise to $100,000.

- An anonymous user fell for a trick of scammers and sent 10 bitcoins to "Elon Musk". According to the BBC, the victim saw a link to Musk's alleged resource in the comments under one of his Twitter posts. After clicking on the link, he began a dialogue with the "manager." And the latter offered to invest a certain amount in "Musk's new project", which guaranteed huge profits.
The “manager” promised that funds would double and return to the owner about 20 minutes after the investment. But even such a short period did not embarrass the victim, and he transferred 10 bitcoins to the scammers (more than half a million dollars at the current exchange rate). And only after the “manager” stopped communicating and the funds were never returned, the “investor” realized that he had become a victim of criminals.

- The price of bitcoin can rise to $300,000, after which the growth will be replaced by a long-term decline. Bobby Lee, co-founder and former CEO of BTCC cryptocurrency exchange, said this in an interview with CNBC.
“Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and the current one is a big cycle. I think that bitcoin may rise to $100,000 this summer,” he said. However, after reaching an all-time high of $300,000, even a small price decrease will cause the bubble to collapse. Lee suggested that the new crypto winter will last between two and three years. “Investors should be prepared for the fact that the value of bitcoin could fall 80-90% from its historical peak,” the entrepreneur added.

- Entrepreneur John McAfee said that the US authorities are using the case against him to crack down on cryptocurrencies. “The charges against me are absolutely ridiculous. The US is using me as a scapegoat to crack down on all cryptocurrencies. This is a simple and understandable truth,” he wrote from prison.
McAfee's lawyer Andrew Gordon noted that the digital asset regulation is still an emerging area for the IRS and the US Department of Justice, and McAfee's criminal tax evasion case is one of the first to involve cryptocurrencies. "It marks a turning point in the enforcement of cryptocurrency reporting," Gordon said, adding that "Mr. McAfee is firm in his innocence and we stand ready to convince the US federal courts."

- The head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell questioned the qualities of the first cryptocurrency as a tool for savings and payments. During his speech at the virtual summit of the Bank for International Settlements, Powell noted the high volatility of digital assets, because of which, in his opinion, they are useless as a means of accumulation. “They are not backed by anything and are used more for speculation, so they are not particularly popular as a means of payment. Crypto assets are more likely to replace gold rather than the dollar,” Powell said.

- According to a new study by analytical company Elliptic, the largest darknet market, Hydra, has a new way of exchanging cryptocurrency for fiat money. The vacuum-packed treasure with money is buried "5-20 cm underground", and the exact GPS coordinates are communicated to the buyer. The service fee is high - about 7% of the exchanged amount.
“This is an interesting way to cash out, but it requires you to be in Russia. This is where many Hydra users are based,” said Elliptic CEO Tom Robinson.
This same method has long been used to sell illegal substances such as drugs. And, as analysts point out, this is a rather risky way, since bandits sometimes pursue customers who are digging up the treasure and take away the "parcels".

- Bitcoin has proven itself once again to be the best rescuer from the ineffective state financial system. The Turkish lira has fallen in relation to the US dollar by another 14% over the past week, as a result of which the residents of Turkey have begun to actively buy bitcoins. This is confirmed by the number of relevant requests in the Turkish segment of Google: it has almost doubled over the last weekend.

- WiseMining introduced the Sato boiler based on ASIC miners, which allows you to mine bitcoins and heat water. The intermediate coolant of the boiler is a special dielectric coolant. The liquid boils and evaporates in the ASIC cooling unit, the vapor rises into the tank coil and condenses, giving off heat to the water. Condensation flows back into the cooling unit of the miner.
The developers provided the possibility of connecting this water heater to the main heating system of the room. The Sato will go on sale in April 2021 and will cost $ 8,990.

- Skybridge Capital CEO and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci claims Elon Musk owns more than $5 billion in bitcoin through Tesla, SpaceX and personally.
Scaramucci gave his comment in the context of discussing the negative impact of mining on the environment. “No other living person has done more to protect the planet from climate change than Elon Musk. And the idea that he would invest in a “dirty asset” is absurd. The future of bitcoin mining is renewable energy sources,” he wrote.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 25, 2021, 03:57:02 PM
Forex PAMM Service


It is possible to make money on currency fluctuations not only by trading. Forex PAMM services allow even those who have no previous trading experience to profit from changes in prices of foreign currency assets. On the other hand, for a professional trader, the Forex PAMM service is an opportunity to increase the size of their trading capital.

What is a PAMM account

PAMM account (from English PAMM - Percent Allocation Management Module) is a special investment account connected to the account of the managing trader. The essence of its work is simple. The trader makes an offer (offer of cooperation with clearly defined conditions), and investors contribute their funds to such an account. As a result of the trading conducted by the managing trader, the profits obtained are distributed among these parties in the proportion specified in the offer.

Key participants in PAMM services

There are three main parties involved in investing in PAMM services:
1. Managing trader. This is a broker's client who has a certain trading experience, confirmed by statistics.
2. Investor. A person who invests their funds into the account of a managing trader. Profits from the results of managing trader's work.
3. PAMM service. This is a broker, for example, NordFX, where trading and financial settlements between the manager and the investor are carried out.

It should be noted that one investor can simultaneously distribute their funds among several managers, forming an optimal investment portfolio, and one manager can accept funds from several investors at the same time.

PAMM services from a manager's point of view

Any trader can become a manager. To do this, you need to register with a broker, for example, NordFX, open a PAMM account, create an offer that will reflect the trader's commission, top up the account and start trading.

By and large, the activities of a manager are not much different from standard trading, but there is one exception. All trader's results will be recorded and displayed for all to see in the form of detailed statistics. It is necessary so that investors can assess the potential of the manager and decide how well the manager's trading strategies are suitable for the investment.

In the NordFX brokerage company, investors can evaluate a manager's trading by almost 50 different parameters that allow them to predict not only potential profit, but also possible risks. 

The managing trader will receive their share of the profit based on the results of their work. The rest will be distributed among all investors in the proportion specified in the offer. Moreover, all this is closely watched by the broker who provided the platform for the PAMM service, so that the trader does not have to calculate anything manually. There are no risks of conflict between the manager and investors due to miscalculations either.

What is the main advantage of a PAMM account from the manager's point of view? First of all, this is an opportunity to significantly increase your income from trading on the international Forex market. In addition to their own funds, the manager will work with investors' money and receive a percentage of the profit for this. The better the trading results, the higher the profit, the more investors will invest their funds in this manager.

As for the flaws, there are none. The manager conducts their usual trading, risks their own funds as usual  and does not bear any additional responsibility to investors for the results of trading. If successful, the number of investors who want to join the trader will grow. However, if the manager is trading at a loss, there will be no people willing to join their account.

PAMM accounts from an investor's point of view

Not only those who trade on their own, but also those who, for some reason, cannot engage in trading, can make money on the international Forex market. For example, you can't make money, you don't have talent, you don't want to study, you don't have time, and so on. But even in these cases, not all is lost.

The fact is that Forex offers almost limitless opportunities for earning money. It is one of the most liquid markets, with a daily turnover of trillions of US dollars, and many traders are keen to work in it. There is no supply of real assets here, and a trader can conclude a sell transaction with numerous financial instruments, even without possessing them.

For an investor, the Forex market is an opportunity to generate passive income by investing their funds in successful managers. Although this type of work cannot be called completely passive. The fact is that the investor will have to perform a certain amount of analytical work. But it will be connected not with how to predict market fluctuations in currencies, but with how to correctly choose a trader who will be entrusted with managing investor's funds.

What are the main advantages of investing in PAMM?

There are several of them:
1. Investing in Forex through PAMM is very convenient. You, as an investor, only need to choose a suitable manager and connect to their account.
2. Full automation. You don't have to deal with any calculations and settlements. The whole process is fully automated on the broker platform.
3. Control by the broker. The risks of cheating on the part of the trader are excluded. Everything is controlled by the service that provides PAMM investment services. For example, the manager does not have access to the funds that are on the investment accounts connected to him. He or she does not have the slightest opportunity to steal investors' funds and disappear with them in an unknown direction.
4. Investors are offered a convenient investment format. The trading history and comprehensive multifactorial statistics for all managing traders are available, which allows you to evaluate their trading strategies and make competent and weighted decisions.
5. Investing in Forex using PAMM is possible without knowledge of this market. As a depositor, you do not need to dive into the intricacies of trading. All this knowledge is necessary only for the manager.
6. Possibility to create your own investment portfolio. Forex PAMM accounts make it possible for you to diversify your investments by choosing several traders with different trading styles and ratios of profit and risk.

Choosing a manager or how to create your portfolio

Investing through PAMM can be quite profitable. However, there are moments that require effort from those who are going to engage in such activities. The fact is that Forex PAMM accounts, including those at the NordF X broker, are a variety of managers. And the choice is not only about finding the most acceptable conditions in terms of the offer. As mentioned above, investing in the Forex market requires a thorough analysis of the trader’s statistics.

There are three main types of trading strategies that managers use: aggressive, balanced, conservative.

Aggressive managers usually perform well in terms of profit, which can reach hundreds or thousands of percent. But, accordingly, they have quite high risks and large drawdowns. Such accounts are more likely than others to suffer serious losses and can even lead to a complete loss of capital.

Balanced managers show average income. But the risks are also relatively low. Such PAMM Forex accounts suffer losses much less often than aggressive ones.

Finally, conservative accounts show low income. At the same time, investments in Forex with such managers pose the lowest risks. Such traders usually conduct their trading activities the longest, which is reflected in their history on the “showcase” of the PAMM service.

Which option should one choose?

This is where we come to the need to create an investment portfolio. If you plan to invest using PAMM technologies, investments are not much different from buying stocks or other instruments. Classic portfolios usually include different asset categories, both low and high-risk.

When working with PAMM brokers, such as NordFX, your task is to assemble approximately the same portfolio where risks and potential returns are balanced. That is, you can invest in all the categories of managers described above, from aggressive to conservative. As a result, you will be able to get a fairly high profit with limited risks.

In terms of percentage, there are many guidelines. Some experts believe that it would be ideal to allocate only 20% of the total account to aggressive accounts, and divide the rest between balanced and conservative. However, this ratio is not a must. You can determine how aggressive your portfolio will be and make calculations based on it.

Some recommendations for choosing PAMM accounts

And now back to the question of how to choose the most suitable Forex PAMM account. There are several important criteria to pay attention to:
1. Age of the PAMM account. This indicator is particularly important for those investors who plan to invest in aggressive strategies. The longer such managers show positive results, the more reliable they are.
2. Average monthly expected return. This indicator is made up of average monthly profits for previous periods. This way you can see how effective the trader's strategy is and what style of trading they use.
3. Maximum drawdown. This is an equally important indicator that reflects the investor's risks. The higher the maximum drawdown, the more aggressive the trader's style is, and the higher the probability of losing your funds.

Important criteria for evaluation are:
1. The used leverage. Naturally, the higher it is, the greater the load on the deposit, the greater the risks.
2. Limiting risks by the managing trader. If they make up more than 30% of the deposit, the manager either does not use stop orders, or shifts or deletes them in the expectation of a price reversal.
3. The use of various aggressive wealth management systems. The most famous in this case is the Martingale, which is described in numerous textbooks and articles on Forex. Some managers indicate the use of this approach in their offers. But even if this is not the case, it is possible to understand that the manager applies a similar method by loading the deposit and increasing losses during periods of long recoilless trends in traded currency pairs.

When planning to invest in a PAMM service, it is necessary to take into account the ratio of risk and return. This applies to a greater extent to those who will compose their own investment portfolios of managers. Many experts say that the profitability should always be 2-3 times higher than the risk. If the profitability is equal to the risk, you may face such a situation when after a certain period of time, your total profit will be equal to ... 0.

When working with PAMM services, it is very important to establish in advance the conditions for exit, that is, the completion of work with one or another manager (at least temporarily). Various criteria can be used for this, including:
1. Exceeding the maximum drawdown. This is one of the important indicators of risk that you should focus on. It says that the trader has started to work even more aggressively and there are chances of receiving serious losses.
2. Change of the manager's trading system. This is not exactly a reason to part with the manager. Rather, it is a reason for analyzing and re-evaluating the terms of this cooperation and the volume of investments. Perhaps the trader's trading system has become more flexible and efficient than in the original version. In this case, the manager can not only remain in the portfolio, but also get a larger share of investments. However, if irrational, from your point of view, changes have been made to the system, it's time to think about stopping such cooperation.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 28, 2021, 04:50:16 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 29-April 02, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The dollar has periodically changed its status since the COVID-19 pandemic started, becoming either a safe haven currency or a risky asset for investors. For example, the US currency declined amid rising stock markets in November-December 2020. And since January, the dollar began to rise along with the S&P500. Now this index is in the area of its all-time high¬: 3.795. The DXY dollar index is also quoted in the area of annual highs: 92.72.   
The main reason for this volatility in the USD is the coronavirus situation and the US government's response to it. And the Fed threw in yet another riddle last week. Recall that it has become clear following the meeting of the Open Market Committee (FOMC) that the US Federal Reserve does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either. The bill signed by US President Joe Biden on a new $1.9 trillion package, according to the Fed, is quite a sufficient measure to stimulate the economy.
Just a few days later, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that the regulator would gradually phase out $120 billion in monthly asset purchases from the moment the US economy almost fully recovers. And this, according to forecasts of the Fed itself could happen this summer.   
So, it turns out that the Government and the Senate may start a debate on winding down QE in the near future. But what about the information that the Biden Administration is now discussing another new package of fiscal stimulus for another $3.0 trillion?
The market "sided" with Jerome Powell this time, and the dollar continued to strengthen its positions. As predicted by the main forecast, which was voted for by the majority of analysts (65%), the EUR/USD pair went down, broke through the support at the 200-day SMA at 1.1825, and dropped to the 1.1760 horizon. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.1790;
   
- GBP/USD. After a two-week stay in the sideways channel 1.3775-1.4000, the widespread strengthening dollar pulled the pair down. 55% of the experts were on the side of the bears, and they were right. The GBP/USD pair reached the local bottom at 1.3670 on Thursday, March 25, after which it returned to the lower border of the side channel, which turned from support to resistance. The last chord of the week sounded near it, at the level of 1.3790;   

- USD/JPY. The large-scale correction of the pair to the south never happened. Just 50 points were enough for the pair: having dropped to the level of 108.40, it turned around and went north again, following the strengthening dollar. The nearest target of the bulls was designated the height of 110.00, and the pair almost reached it: the week's high was fixed at 109.85. After that, it declined slightly and completed the working five days at 109.67;

- cryptocurrencies. The forecast for the past week, which was supported by the majority of experts, was not most optimistic for the bulls. It assumed the cessation of growth, the breakdown of bitcoin's lower boundary of the upward channel and its lateral movement in the range of $50,000-60,000. Unfortunately for investors, this is exactly what happened. The BTC/USD pair was at a height of $60,000 on March 20, but it found a local bottom at around $50,290 on Thursday March 25. And if the fall in bitcoin was 16%, then some of the top altcoins lost about 25% in price.
One of the few that won was ripple. Starting at $0.4652 seven days before, it peaked at $0.5955 on March 22, and was trading at $0.5450 by the evening of Friday March 26.
In general, as we predicted, the crypto market turned out to be overheated. Elon Musk's statement that bitcoins accepted as payment for Tesla cars would no longer be converted into dollars did not help it either. such information could have pushed the market high up not so long ago, but now it has given only a small short-term impulse.
According to Skybridge Capital CEO and former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, Tesla has about $1.5 billion in BTC at the moment. In total, Elon Musk owns little more than $5 billion in bitcoins through Tesla, SpaceX and personally. Perhaps this is no longer enough, and bitcoin needs more powerful locomotives than Tesla or MicroStrategy to move the market up.
But just a few words from regulators such as the US Fed are enough to push it down. The head of the US Federal Reserve System Jerome Powell questioned the qualities of the first cryptocurrency as a tool for savings and payments. During his speech at the virtual summit of the Bank for International Settlements, he noted the high volatility of digital assets, because of which, in his opinion, they are useless as a means of accumulation. “They are not backed by anything and are used more for speculation, so they are not particularly popular as a means of payment. Crypto assets are more likely to replace gold rather than the dollar,” Powell said.
The fall of BTC/USD was evidently affected by the fall of the S&P500, with which such a risk asset as “digital gold” correlates more and more. Traders have closed about 240,000 positions over the past few days, and the total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1805 billion to $1,680 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index moved from 71 to the central zone during the week and is at 54, which is flat. However, it is possible that this is only a lull before the storm.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. There are three main factors on the side of the American currency. The first is the successful vaccination of the population, including not only the results already achieved, but also the promise of President Biden to vaccinate 200 million US residents in the first 100 days of his stay in the White House. The second factor is the growing attractiveness of government bonds for foreign investors. And the third factor is the strength of the US economy, which is capable of lifting the economies of many other countries along with itself.
Europe has none of these factors. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos did say that if vaccination in the Eurozone increases sharply by the summer, then Europe will face a sharp economic rise in Q3 and Q4. But these are just words.
At the moment, 70% of experts expect the dollar to continue strengthening and the EUR/USD pair to decline to the 1.1640-1.1700 zone. The ultimate target is the lows of September-November 2020 around 1.1600. This forecast is supported by 85% of trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1, as well as 75% of oscillators on D1. The remaining 25% give signals that the pair is oversold.
Note that graphical analysis indicates that the euro may strengthen to 1.1880 in the coming days on both time frames, and the pair will go south only after that.
It should also be noted that when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, it is already 60% of analysts who vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair. The targets are 1.2000 and 1.2200.
As for the events of the coming week, the release of data on the consumer markets in Germany on March 30 and the Eurozone on March 31 should be considered, as well as data on the US labor market on Wednesday March 31 (ADP report) and Friday April 02 (NFP). The speech of U.S. President Joe Biden on March 31 is also of interest. Markets will wait for signals from him regarding the steps that his administration will take to speed up the recovery of the country's economy;
(https://i.imgur.com/StWXp51.jpg)

- GBP/USD. We will receive UK GDP data for Q4 2020 on Wednesday, the last day of March. According to forecasts, the indicator will remain at the previous level of 1%. This is unlikely to add optimism to investors, but it will not upset them either. Therefore, 50% of them vote for the sideways trend, 40% for the strengthening of the dollar and only 10% for the strengthening of the British pound.
The technical analysis readings are as follows. On H4: 50% of the oscillators point to the north, 50% to the south. The trend indicators have a similar pattern. D1 is dominated by red. 65% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators are colored red.
The nearest support levels are 1.3760, 1.3700, 1.3670, resistance levels are 1.3820, 1.3900, 1.3960. The targets are 1.4000 and 1.3600, respectively;

- USD/JPY. The pair reached a nine-month high at 109.85 last week, showing an impressive increase of almost 730 points over the past three months. This suggests that such traditional safe havens, which is the yen, are now of little interest to investors.
It is unlikely that the Tankan index will greatly affect the market sentiment. Published by the Bank of Japan, this index reflects general business conditions for large manufacturing companies. Tankan is an economic indicator of Japan, which is heavily dependent on export-oriented industry. The index value above 0 is positive for the yen, the value below 0, respectively, is a negative factor. However, according to forecasts, the value of the index, which will be published on Thursday April 01, will not be higher or lower, but equal to 0. This is a neutral value. Although, it is possible that it will support the Japanese currency somewhat, since Tankan was at minus 10 a quarter earlier. But it is likely to be only a small correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south.
Overall, most analysts (60%) remain bullish, expecting it to consolidate above the 110.00 horizon. The targets are 111.70 and 112.20. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators agree with this scenario. The remaining 25% give signals that the pair is overbought.   
The remaining 40% of experts, supported by graphic analysis, still hope for a long-awaited correction to the south. At the same time, when moving to monthly and quarterly forecasts, their number increases to 75%. Support levels in case the pair falls are 109.00, 108.60, 108.40, 106.65. The target is zone 106.00;

 - cryptocurrencies. It was noticed that not only plants start growing in the spring, but also bitcoin quotes. So, the BTC/USD pair rose in April by an average of 40% for the past three years. That is, this time it should be somewhere in the area of $70,000-75,000 by the end of April. Call options with expiration on April 30 show similar expectations. Those are now open at a price of $80,000 on derivative exchanges for a total of $240,000,000. Its active withdrawal to cold wallets continues in anticipation of a new growth cycle for the main cryptocurrency.
We have already talked more than once about the support package for the US economy in the amount of $1.9 trillion, of which, according to a study by Mizuho Securities, US citizens can spend $20-25 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrency. Following this anti-Covid package, another one is possible, in the amount of $3.0 trillion. And if adopted, it would also benefit the crypto market.
But all this is in the future. In the meantime, 60% of analysts believe that the BTC/USD pair will move along the Pivot Point of $50,000 for the next one or two weeks, fluctuating in the $46,500-56,000 range.
If we talk about a long-term forecast, according to the co-founder and former CEO of the BTCC cryptocurrency exchange Bobby Lee, the price of bitcoin can rise to $300,000, after which the growth will be replaced by a long-term decline. “Bitcoin bull market cycles occur every four years, and the current one is a big cycle. I think that bitcoin may rise to $100,000 this summer,” he said. However, after reaching an all-time high of $300,000, even a small price decrease will cause the bubble to collapse. Lee suggested that the new crypto winter will last between two and three years, and "investors should be prepared for the fact that the value of bitcoin could fall 80-90% from the historical peak."
And in conclusion of the review, we present you the next "miracle device" in our micro-heading "Crypto Life Hacks". WiseMining has recently introduced the Sato ASIC miner boiler that allows you to heat water by mining bitcoin. The intermediate coolant of the boiler is a special dielectric coolant. The liquid boils and evaporates in the ASIC cooling unit, the vapor rises into the tank coil and condenses, giving off heat to the water. Condensation flows back into the cooling unit of the miner. The developers provided the possibility of connecting this water heater to the main heating system of the room. Sato sales will begin as early as this April.
And one more "life hack", from the criminal world. According to a new study by analytical company Elliptic, the largest darknet market, Hydra, has a new way of exchanging cryptocurrency for fiat money. The vacuum-packed treasure with money is buried "5-20 cm underground", and the exact GPS coordinates are communicated to the buyer. This same method has long been used to sell illegal substances such as drugs. However, it is quite risky, as bandits sometimes track down customers and take away "the parcels". The consequences in this case are unpredictable.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 31, 2021, 05:33:09 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/lvglBGq.jpg)

- The capitalization of bitcoin for the first time exceeded $1 trillion in mid-February. And, although many analysts doubt the continued growth, ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood believes that the first trillion in the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is only the first step.
“If we calculate the potential demand for bitcoin, given the limited supply of coins, we get huge numbers in the long run. Now is just the beginning, and the capitalization of $1 trillion is nothing compared to the indicators of the future, "- said the CEO of ARK Invest at a conference held by the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
The demand for bitcoin from institutional investors who are trying to hedge inflation risks with cryptocurrencies has become one of the most important things. At the same time, they buy bitcoin for a very long time and increase the number of coins withdrawn from circulation.
“We see Square, Tesla, MicroStrategy and others buying bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies dominate the business of these companies now. And the announcement of the sale of Tesla for BTC will allow you to do business in any region without wasting time and money on exchanging fiat currencies." So, the current position is only the beginning of a bullish cycle, Catherine Wood emphasized.

- The PayPal payment system is going to provide its customers with the opportunity to pay in bitcoins in all stores that are partners of the company in the near future. We are talking about approximately 29 million retail outlets around the world. According to Reuters, in addition to the main cryptocurrency, PayPal also plans to introduce support for payments in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin. Reuters noted that it is not about direct payment of goods and services with the help of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. All assets will be automatically converted to fiat in real time. This will make the option available in all countries where PayPal operates.
It will also be possible to transfer funds in real time to debit or credit cards. PayPal CEO Dan Shulman noted that there will be no fees for cryptocurrency transactions.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez wants to make the city the hub of bitcoin mining. According to him, 90% of miners extract the first cryptocurrency using "dirty energy" outside the United States. “This is the reason why bitcoin mining is considered a dirty business,” said Suarez.
According to him, the United States is ready to provide large bitcoin miners with access to renewable energy sources. He is confident that America should mine more digital gold, including for reasons of national security and environmental protection. “We have nuclear, which means clean energy, which is practically unlimited,” added Suarez.
According to the bitcoin energy consumption index Digiconomist, the indicator renewed its all-time high on March 28: the annual consumption reached 89.9 TWh.

- Enthusiasts used the Game Boy handheld gaming system to mine cryptocurrency. A video about this was released on a YouTube channel. Only the 4 MHz Sharp processor installed in this game console was used directly for mining. The system issued a 0.8 H/s hashrate. However, the result is not very encouraging: with a bitcoin rate of about $55,000, it will take 50 thousand years to mine $1.

- Latvian airBaltic was the first airline in the world to add bitcoin as a way to pay for its flights. According to the company, about 1000 customers have used this option since its integration. And now airBaltic has added the ability to buy tickets with Ethereum, Dogecoin, Bitcoin Cash, USD Coin, Binance Dollar, Gemini Dollar and Paxos. Airline prices are denominated in euros. The BitPay payment service automatically converts cryptocurrencies into fiat upon purchase.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo said that we will see the final stage of the explosive growth of the first cryptocurrency this year, which will be the last for a three-year "bullish cycle". Now the bitcoin rate is at a local bottom and there is no point in selling your BTC reserves. On the contrary, this is a good time to develop the position.
“You have to be crazy to sell right now. At the bottom, bitcoin is now being bought up in huge volumes,” the analyst noted. In support of his statement that bitcoin is unlikely to decline anytime soon, Woo recalled large-scale transfers of BTC from the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange to cold wallets - this suggests that the "whales" are buying and are waiting for the growth of the first cryptocurrency.

- Canadian mortgage broker Mogo with a capitalization of $435 million has launched a new program: the users will be able to receive cashback up to $2,460 when applying for a mortgage and use it to buy bitcoins. The program works both when applying for a new mortgage, and when refinancing an existing one.
“Given the volatility and speculative nature of bitcoin, more Canadians are looking for an opportunity to participate in BTC trading without investing their own money. Our program is designed for just such customers,” explained David Feller, CEO of Mogo.

- During the current cycle, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by almost 500% since October and has updated highs above $60,000. Bitcoin rallied during the first two months of 2021 but ran into a hurdle in March. Historical data shows that bitcoin may continue to rise in April after the March rollback.
“The season may be the determining factor. - Danny Scott, head of CoinCorner exchange, said in a conversation with Forbes. - April always stands out because it marks the end of the UK and US tax period. If we start from historical information, April may well end with an upswing."
So, the data shows that bitcoin has risen by an average of 51% in April over the past 10 years. If this scenario is repeated, its price may be around of $80,000 by the end of the month.
There were only two negative months of April: in 2014 (minus 6%) and in 2015 (minus 4%). But both of these times happened on bearish cycles, and therefore it is worth taking into account the "current sentiment in the industry." “Now we are, by and large, experiencing a bullish period, and momentum is consistently forming every week,” said Scott.

- Norwegian billionaire and investor Oystein Stray Spetalen was actively criticizing bitcoin on March 18. “The only conclusion I came to in the course of my analysis is that bitcoin consumes as much electricity today as the whole of Norway. This is extremely harmful to the environment. - he was indignant at the DNB conference. - The authorities and the EU should immediately ban it. This is just nonsense. The existing payment systems are doing an excellent job with their tasks."
And now, just a few days later, Spetalen unexpectedly announced during an interview with Finansavisen that he had become an investor in the Norwegian crypto exchange Miraiex. “When facts change, so do I. I met with the founders of Miraiex and realized I was wrong. And when I read that Kjell Inge Rokke also joined bitcoin, the choice became obvious. I can’t allow him to make money, but me not,” Spetalen said.
For reference: Norwegian industrial tycoon and billionaire Kjell Inge Rokke opened a 500 million kroner ($ 58.6 million) Seetee company to invest in bitcoin in early March.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 04, 2021, 12:50:57 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 05 - 09, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. This is evidenced by the impressive data from the labor market. Thus, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) has almost doubled compared to the previous period (growth from 468K to 916K) and, moreover, has exceeded the forecast (647K) by almost a third. The ISM Manufacturing PMI has risen from 60.8 to 64.7. Also, according to the ADP report, the employment rate in the private sector has increased from 176K to 517K. All this suggests that fiscal stimulation of the economy and the injection of money into it is working. But is it good for the dollar?
Of course, this scheme also includes yields on long-term US government bonds, as well as the prospects for monetary policy for the next few years. Investors are sensitive to statements by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program and raising the interest rate.
On the one hand, according to the statements of the management, the Federal Reserve System does not intend to raise interest rates until at least 2023. The Fed is not going to change other parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program either, believing that injecting $1.9 trillion into the economy will be quite enough. But on the other hand, US President Joe Biden presented a massive $2.25 trillion infrastructure spending plan on Wednesday March 31, along with a financing scheme through tax increases. If, indeed, these funds arise not at the expense of the printing press, but at the expense of an increase in the tax load, this will mean the curtailment of QE, and will entail the flow of capital from the stock market to the government bond market.
But while this is all just planning, the market has frozen in anticipation, and the EUR/USD pair has moved into a sideways trend. As predicted by the majority of experts (70%), the dollar continued to strengthen at the beginning of last week, and the pair came close to 1.1700. But then, largely thanks to Biden's new plan, it turned around and went up. However, this rebound can hardly be called a trend change. The pair just returned to where it had been on March 25-30. It completed the trading week in the same zone, at the level of 1.1760;

- GBP/USD. In general, the chart of this pair was similar to the chart of EUR/USD, with only one fundamental difference. If the euro continues to retreat against the dollar, the British pound, albeit with difficulty, is trying to hold the defense. This time, the UK GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2020 to 1.3%, as well as the revised upward index of business activity came to help it.
Let us remind that, when making a forecast for the previous week, 40% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 10% for the strengthening of the pound and 50% for the sideways trend. And in general, everyone was right. The pair both fell to 1.3705, and grew to 1.3850, and eventually finished only 40 points above the start. Having started the five-day week at 1.3790, it completed it at 1.3830;

- USD/JPY. Most analysts (60%) had expected this pair to consolidate above the 110.00 horizon. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators had agreed with this scenario. And it turned out to be absolutely true. The pair has been relentlessly moving north since January 6 and it renewed this year's high on Wednesday March 31, reaching 110.95.  The long-awaited correction to the south did not happen again, and the pair ended the trading session at 110.65;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is storming the $60,000 threshold again. At the time of writing, the maximum it has reached so far is $60,170. However, as soon as the benchmark cryptocurrency approaches this milestone, another wave of sales follows, causing a pullback. However, these ebbs are not large enough. And this suggests that there are fewer and fewer people willing to part with bitcoin at this level. Investors are waiting for a leap up. And these small corrections just give them the opportunity to replenish their stock of tokens on the pullback.
A huge number of bitcoins are flowing into cold wallets, which indicates that the "whales" institutions are set for the further growth of BTC and see it as an asset for long-term investments. The news background also contributes to this. “We see Square, Tesla, MicroStrategy and others buying bitcoin,” says ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood. - Now cryptocurrencies determine part of the business of these companies. And the announcement of the sale of Tesla for BTC will allow you to do business in any region without wasting time and money on exchanging fiat currencies." The major payment system, PayPal, has also joined the crypto race. it intends to provide its customers with the opportunity to pay in bitcoins in all stores that are partners of the company, and there are approximately 29 million of them around the world. According to Reuters, in addition to the main cryptocurrency, PayPal also plans to introduce support for payments in Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum and Litecoin.
We can talk about the gradual adoption of cryptocurrencies in various sectors of the economy at the moment. However, large investors are still very worried about the attitude of regulators to this type of assets. And, first and foremost, the US authorities. According to a number of analysts, while bitcoin and the main altcoins act as a store of value and speculation, the American regulator turns a blind eye to it. But as soon as bitcoin begins to compete with the dollar as a means of payment and international payments even a little, the attitude of the authorities can change dramatically. And it is not at all excluded that the initiatives of PayPal and other payment systems will cause a negative reaction from them. An example of this is Facebook's Libra, which was strangled in the bud.
In the meantime, as mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is trying to gain a foothold above $60,000, and the total market capitalization is trying to exceed the most important psychological level of $2.0 trillion. It reached a volume of $1.993 billion on the first day of April, but it rolled back to the level of $1.936 billion on Friday. It is noteworthy that the dominance of bitcoin in the market has slightly decreased over the past 7 days: from 59.56% to 57.88%. Moreover, its share in the crypto market literally fell to 55.50% on April 1. The reason for this is the closure of long positions when the BTC/USD pair reached the horizon of $60,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has started to rise again. It rose by 20 points over the week, from 54 to 74, and came close to the strongly overbought zone.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Europe is preparing for a new wave of coronavirus. The rate of vaccination, although growing, is slow. Only 16.5% of the EU population has received at least one injection so far, compared to 45.6% in the USA. The situation could be aggravated by another month of lockdowns. Coupled with the absence in the EU of a plan to stimulate an economy similar to the American one, it could provide additional support to the dollar and put pressure on the euro.
Analysts from Japanese bank Daiwa Securities note that dollars are now being bought not only by speculators but also by asset managers. And in their opinion, the USD DXY index will go up while the American economy improves and Treasury yields rise. This scenario is also supported by experts from Nordea Markets, according to whom the EUR/USD pair is expected to decline to the level of 1.1500.
On the other hand, excessive US stimulus measures could overheat the US economy. In addition, according to the WTO estimates, the surplus of dollars in the country will lead to an increase in demand for imports by 11.4%. Most of this demand will be met by exports from Asia and Europe. And if the countries of the Eurozone radically accelerate the rate of vaccination, then the preponderance will be on the side of the European currency.
It is clear that graphical analysis, 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are still colored red at the moment. However, the remaining 25% of the oscillators are already signaling that the pair is oversold. The picture is completely different On H4: about half of the indicators have switched to green.
As for the opinion of experts, the pair is expected to grow next week by 55% of them, however, when switching to the monthly forecast, their number grows to 65%. The bears' goals are 1.1700 and the low of November 2020 at 1.1600. The goals of the bulls are 1.1885 and 1.2000.
As for the events of the coming week, we can mention the publication of the ISM index of business activity in the services sector on Monday 05 April, the publication of the minutes of the US Fed's FOMS meeting on Wednesday 07 April and a speech of the head of the organization, Jerome Powell, on Thursday 08 April;

- GBP/USD. The British currency may continue to grow, as it did in the first two months of 2021. Especially so if there is a return to the country of major capital that fled from it due to Brexit. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. However, this may not be enough due to the problems after the UK exit from the EU, the impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit.
However, the majority of experts (65%) are quite optimistic about the future of the British currency at the moment. 15% predict its weakening, and the remaining 20% insist on a sideways trend.
The 1.3850 level can be designated as the support/resistance zone of the last eight weeks. It is the lateral movement along it that graphical analysis draws. On H4, the borders of the trading range look like 1.3755-1.3850. On D1, they are naturally much wider, 1.3670–1.4000.
85% of oscillators and 70% of trend indicators on D1 look north. Also, the green has an advantage among trend indicators on H4: those are 75%. But as for the oscillators, here 60% are painted in neutral gray, and 20% - in red and green;

- USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly written that the rate of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US Treasuries. However, the Bank of Japan has not been able to decide how to respond to rising yields on US securities and what to do with its own. If the yield on 10-year US bonds and commodity prices continue to rise, and the Japanese regulator does not respond to this, it could hit the yen hard. And it has already suffered quite tangible losses, having lost more than 800 points to the dollar over the past three months.
Currently 85% of the trend indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are facing north. 60% of the oscillators on H4 and 65% on D1 are looking in the same direction, the rest signal that the pair is overbought.
And a very interesting and unexpected picture emerged during a survey of analysts. Giving a weekly forecast, 70% of them were in favor of a correction to the south and 30% - for a sideways trend. The number of votes cast for the growth of the pair is 0. Moreover, when switching to a monthly forecast, the number of bears' supporters grows to 90%. The graphical forecast on both timeframes also supports the bearish scenario. Support levels are 110.35, 109.85, 109.00 and 108.50. The nearest resistance level is 111.00, the targets of the bulls are 111.70 and 112.20;

- cryptocurrencies. As has been noted many times, the "whales" store large stocks of bitcoins in cold wallets. According to Glassnode, not only the volume of frozen crypto assets is growing, but also the number of such long-term investors. For example, the Norwegian billionaire Oystein Stray Spetalen changed his attitude towards bitcoin in just one day! Back on March 18, he actively demanded that the EU authorities ban the cryptocurrency. And a day later ... he became an investor in the Norwegian crypto-exchange Miraiex, stating that "when the facts change, I also change." Another Norwegian billionaire, Kjell Inge Rokke, who opened a special company to invest in bitcoin, may have caused this turnaround. "I can’t let him make money, but me not," Spetalen said.
So, will there be an opportunity to make money on bitcoin anytime soon? During the current cycle, the price of the cryptocurrency has risen by almost 500% since October 2020 and has updated highs above $60,000. Bitcoin rallied during the first two months of 2021 but ran into a hurdle in March. However, according to a number of experts, historical data indicate that after the March rollback bitcoin's growth may continue in April. “The season may be the determining factor. - Danny Scott, head of CoinCorner exchange, said in a conversation with Forbes. - April always stands out because it marks the end of the UK and US tax period. If we start from historical information, April may well end with an upswing."
So, the data shows that bitcoin has risen by an average of 51% in April over the past 10 years. If this scenario is repeated, its price may be around of $80,000 by the end of the month. There were only two negative months of April: in 2014 (minus 6%) and in 2015 (minus 4%). But both of these times happened on bearish cycles, and therefore it is worth taking into account the "current sentiment in the industry." “Now we are, by and large, experiencing a bullish period, and momentum is consistently forming every week,” said Scott. If we apply Fibonacci levels to the charts of the BTC/USD pair, then the next targets for it may be the levels of $73,000 and $92,000.
It is appropriate to quote here the opinion of the popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo, who said that we will see the final stage of the explosive growth of the first cryptocurrency rate this year. But it will also be the last one for a three-year bull cycle. Now the bitcoin rate is at a local bottom and there is no point in selling your BTC reserves, Woo thinks. “You have to be crazy to sell right now. At the bottom, bitcoin is now being bought up in huge volumes,” the analyst noted, citing the statistics of the Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange as an example. It is surprising that with such optimism of individual crypto enthusiasts, 70% of analysts expect not growth, but, on the contrary, a fall in the BTC/USD pair to the $50,000 mark during April.
And in conclusion of the review, we present you the next "miracle device" in our traditional micro-heading "Crypto Life Hacks". A group of enthusiasts adapted the Game Boy portable game console for cryptocurrency mining. A video about this was released on a YouTube channel. Only its 4 MHz Sharp processor was used directly for mining. However, this invention is unlikely to make the craftsmen millionaires: tests have shown that with a bitcoin rate of about $55,000, they will need 50 thousand years to mine $1.
(https://i.imgur.com/Ugp3AXK.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 06, 2021, 05:05:42 PM
March 2021 Results: Three Most Successful NordFX Traders Earned Over $100,000

(https://i.imgur.com/M2h3JHc.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in March. If earlier traders from China, India, Sri Lanka and Vietnam waged an active struggle for leadership, all three steps of the podium were occupied by representatives of China last month.

The highest monthly profit, $66.377, was received by a client, account No. 1179XXX, mainly on transactions with gold (XAU/USD) and bitcoin (BTC/USD).

The second place in the rating of the most successful traders was taken by the owner of account No.1545XXX, who earned $26,142 on transactions with the main cryptocurrency.

And, finally, in third place is a trader, account No.1530XXX, with a profit of $16.977, among whose main trading instruments are the pairs XAU/USD and GBP/USD.

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading, the largest increase of 507% in March was shown by the VN.NO1 signal, however, its maximum drawdown was quite impressive, 63.65%. In the “middle” category, we can note the RED DOG signal: a profit of 34.86% with a drawdown of 23.25%. And, finally, among the most non-aggressive signals, Follow Trend attracts attention, it showed quite a good growth of 15.25% in March with a drawdown of only 4.18%.
- in the PAMM service, one should note the manager under the nickname GoodCandles5000: the growth for the month on his account was 26.77%, the maximum drawdown was 9.88%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, $12,878, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account No.1527xxx, who received $6,593;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.1491xxx, who received $4,855 as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 07, 2021, 02:30:51 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/Ew2LUFE.jpg)

- Attackers demanded 5 BTC (about $275,000), threatening to detonate bombs in two business centers of St. Petersburg, the second largest city in Russia. According to local media reports, the Fort Tower and Renaissance Park business centers received ransom threats by e-mail. However, no explosive devices were found after people were evacuated and buildings were inspected. The police are looking for extortionists.

- Investor and TV star Kevin O'Leary said in a comment to CNBC that he would only buy eco-friendly digital gold. According to him, within a year or two, the crypto community will divide bitcoin into two types: "clean", that is, mined using renewable energy, and "dirty" or "bloody" - mined using "dirty energy."
O'Leary added that environmental concerns were coming to the fore with regard to digital gold. “I don’t buy coins if I don’t know where and when they were mined. Not from China. No “bloody” coins,” the investor said. However, he did not specify where he buys "clean" bitcoin and how he determines its origin.
According to analysts' calculations, the annual emissions into the atmosphere from cryptocurrency mining are about 60 million tons of carbon dioxide. In other words, $1 billion worth of bitcoin mining is equivalent to annual carbon emissions from 1.2 million cars.

- According to CoinDesk, the Sacramento Kings NBA basketball club will provide an opportunity for the team and support staff to get paid in the first cryptocurrency. This was stated by its owner. The club plans to give official confirmation this week. The publication believes that such a move will secure the Kings a status as the most crypto-friendly professional sports team in the United States.

- Experts of the JPMorgan bank called the rate of $130,000 as the long-term goal for the first cryptocurrency, having lowered the bar from $146,000 due to the fall in gold quotes, Business Insider reports.
The bank's analysts made such a forecast based on the calculation of the theoretical capitalization of the first cryptocurrency in the event of an inflow of funds from the gold market, for which the cryptocurrency is becoming a digital alternative. According to JPMorgan, the precious metal has outflowed $20 billion since mid-October, while companies have poured $7 billion in bitcoin.
The long-term target for the cryptocurrency rate is based on the idea that its volatility and the volatility of gold will converge. But the bank recalled that this is a long-term process: the realized three-month asset volatility is 86% and 16%, respectively so far.

- The famous American rapper Snoop Dogg said that he is a big bitcoin supporter. “I believe in bitcoin and the technology that makes global interaction possible,” he said.
The rapper has already become familiar with the volatility of the crypto market and understands that the fall in price does not reflect the initial value of the asset. Price is not the main determinant of the reliability of the leading cryptocurrency for him. “I don't follow the coin rate too much, because I've been on the market for a long time and got used to rate jumps. I am sure that bitcoin is for a long time, ”says Snoop Dogg. “The future is happening right before our eyes. I don't think bitcoin is just a consequence of the pandemic. It only adds fuel to the fire. "

- Many "bitcoin bulls" in the expert environment say that the largest digital currency will be able to bypass gold in terms of capitalization in the future. In this case, the value of all bitcoins should grow 10 times and exceed the $11 trillion mark. The authors of the study conducted by Ark Invest, stress that this could happen over the next few years. "We believe that bitcoin is better than gold and it's safe to say that it will capture gold market share or even more."
Commenting on a recent speech by the US Treasury Secretary in which she criticized bitcoin, Ark Invest experts say Janet Yellen used outdated arguments when she said that criminals were using cryptocurrency for money laundering.

- Billionaire and founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz agrees with the forecast of Ark Invest. He stated In a comment for CNBC that he was shocked by the pace of digital asset adoption. The investor also admitted his previous forecast of the price of the first cryptocurrency of $60,000 too conservative. “Bitcoin is on the inevitable path to reaching and exceeding the capitalization of gold,” said Novogratz.
According to CompaniesMarketCap, the total market value of gold at the time of writing is $10.8 trillion. According to CoinGecko, the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is around $1.1 trillion.

- Domain name registrar GoDaddy put up Roger Ver's Bitcoin.com domain for sale for $100 million earlier this week. Upon discovering the ad, the owner said it was “100% fake” and contacted GoDaddy with a demand to remove the domain from sale. And that was done. At the same time, there were no official comments and explanations from GoDaddy representatives.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad author, investor and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has suggested in a recent interview that bitcoin could reach a value of $1.2 million over the next five years. Kiyosaki first bought the cryptocurrency last year when it was trading at $9,000 after the pandemic actually shackled the global economy. “I wish I could buy it for 10 cents, like many people did, but I still look like a genius because today it costs about $55,000. I think that in another five years it will grow to $1.2 million,” the entrepreneur announced.
At the same time, even though Kiyosaki has turned into a defender of bitcoin, he still prefers gold and silver for main investments, explaining this by the fact that the cryptocurrency is outside the regulatory field.

- Large investment bank Morgan Stanley has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to which 12 funds of the bank will be able to invest in BTC. Each of the funds indicated in the application will be able to place up to 25% of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. “Certain funds can indirectly invest in bitcoin through fiat-settled bitcoin futures or through investments in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The investments will go through a subsidiary registered in the Cayman Islands. At the same time, the fund may not have investments in bitcoin at a certain point,” the application says.

- Billionaire Mark Cuban revealed that he has concentrated 60% of his cryptocurrency investment portfolio in bitcoin, 30% in Ethereum, and 10% in other digital assets. Cuban called bitcoin the best alternative to gold, and Ethereum - the most similar to a real currency. “I wish I had bought Ethereum earlier. I started doing this only four years ago,” added Cuban, and compared the growth of Ethereum to the development of the Internet in the late 90s.
According to him, it is this altcoin that matches his ideas about the correct form of money due to its decentralized economy based on smart contracts.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 09, 2021, 04:45:18 PM
Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders


(https://i.imgur.com/nh8ETDy.jpg)

The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on July 1, October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022. For more details, visit the NordFX website.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 11, 2021, 04:36:32 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 12 - 16, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The U.S. economy continues to recover vigorously. The S&P500 index renews another high, the value of American Treasuries is growing and, accordingly, their yield is falling. And the dollar is falling along with it.
However, the market, for the most part, is reacting not to real numbers for the last week and a half, but to forecasts and promises. As already mentioned, the US economy is growing. But the head of the US Federal Reserve said that although the March statistics on the labor market is impressive, it is not enough to even start discussions on the curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs. According to Jerome Powell, this requires several more months of such positive results.
His colleagues agree with him. So, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daly noted that the US economy is still very far from the recovery, and the Fed will wait until this happens. And the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, said that one should not even think about changes in the US monetary policy until the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.
But as for the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, there are more and more vigorous statements of EU officials about the imminent termination of lockdowns and the unprecedented growth of the Eurozone economy. And in spite of the calls of German Chancellor Angela Merkel for tighter isolation, optimistic data on industrial production in this country are cited.
As a result of all these verbal battles, the scales tipped to the side of the euro. As predicted by most experts, the EUR/USD pair went up, rising to the height of 1.1930 on Thursday, April 08. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 1.1900;

- GBP/USD. Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which has weakened against other currencies, does not allow the GBP/USD pair to return to growth. We see how the British currency, step by step, is losing ground starting from February 24. Last week the pair was able to grow only to 1.3920. This was followed by a reversal and, as predicted by graphical analysis, it dropped to the level of 1.3670. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.3710;

- USD/JPY. It has been repeatedly written that the rate of this pair is greatly influenced by the yield of US Treasuries. Fluctuations in the yield of these securities allowed the yen to straighten its shoulders a little and win back 165 points from the dollar in the first four days of the week, dropping to 109.00. However, then the strength of the bears dried up, and the pair ended the five-day period at the level of 109.65;

- cryptocurrencies. The overwhelming majority of analysts (70%) gave a negative forecast for the BTC/USD pair last week, expecting it to move towards $50,000. This is exactly what happened, and the fall of bitcoin on Wednesday to $55,540 made many talk about the beginning of new "crypto freezes". Fortunately for investors, the panic was premature and the pair returned to the $58,000 zone on Friday. However, the question of why the main cryptocurrency failed to gain a foothold above $60,000 remains open.
One of the versions is a drop in demand from large institutional investors. But, as is clear from the statistics of crypto exchanges, "whales" continue to withdraw cryptocurrency to cold wallets. And therefore, they expect its growth to continue.
The miners' actions are also indicative of their bullish sentiment. They switched to hoarding coins in April, creating a shortage in the market. The movement of cryptocurrency from miners to crypto exchanges has decreased by almost 40%: from 450 bitcoins per day in March to 275 in the first decade of April. Naturally, such a shortage of supply should push the price up. Suffice it to recall that the BTC/USD pair rose from $19,000 to $30,000 in a similar situation the previous time.
In the meantime, just as bitcoin cannot take the $60,000 height by storm, the total market capitalization cannot step over the $2.0 trillion bar either, once approaching it, once moving away. At the time of writing this review, on Friday April 09, it has once again come close to this important psychological level, reaching a volume of $1.990 billion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has changed only by 4 points during the week, having fallen from 74 to 70.
It should be noted that the share of bitcoin in the total crypto market capitalization is continuously decreasing: if it was 62% on March 14, then it was only 55% on April 09. This is undoubtedly due to the lack of positive price dynamics for BTC/USD. Speculators are switching to other instruments, which allow making serious profits at the moment. And here the ripple should be noted.
When the ripple fell to $0.170 at the very end of December 2020 due to the claims of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), many gave up on it. However, on April 7, at the high, the price of this altcoin reached $1.108, showing a 550% gain since the the year started. Its capitalization also grew during this time, rising from 1.40% to 2.42%. The reason for this rally, especially in the last week, was the news that ripple's lawyers have gained access to the SEC documents and are making serious progress in litigation with this powerful regulator.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As is said in the first part of the review, the statements of the US Federal Reserve leaders, the growth of the stock market and the fall in the yield of US Treasury bonds are important factors. But they are limited in time. So is the falling dollar. And at some point, everything can turn 180 degrees. The higher the US stock indices soar - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S&P500, the more frequent talk about “soap bubbles” that are about to burst. Investors borrowed a record $814 billion secured by their own portfolios by the end of February 2021. And this is 49% more than a year ago. A similar situation resulted in the collapse of the stock market and in the economic crisis in 2008.
But until this happens, the attractiveness of the dollar continues to decline, which plays into the hands of low-income currencies and, first of all, the euro. The dollar is not facilitated by the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans in the US Senate over the scale of further fiscal stimulus either.
Of course, a way out of this political stalemate will be found, and there will be more clarity about the results of vaccinations and the speed of recovery of the US and Eurozone economies. But according to forecasts of 65% of experts, the EUR/USD pair will continue its growth in the coming week. This scenario is supported by 75% of oscillators and 85% of trend indicators on H4. The advantage of the “greens” is much weaker on D1, here it is only 65% of technical indicators that point to the growth of the pair. At the same time, 15% of oscillators are painted neutral gray, and 20% already give signals about the pair being overbought.
As for the graphical analysis, it shows movement in the 1.1835-1.1950 trading range on H4, the range is, of course, wider on D1: first, the pair goes down to the lower border in the 1.1700 zone, and then rises to the 1.2000 height. It should be noted that in the transition from weekly to monthly forecast, 55% of analysts vote for the decline of the pair to the horizon of 1.1700.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to inflation indicators and data on the US consumer market (due out on April 13, 15 and 16), Eurozone (April 12) and Germany (April 15) . Also of interest is the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell on Wednesday April 14;
(https://i.imgur.com/JoIvBgm.jpg)

- GBP/USD. At the moment, the absolute advantage for this pair is on the side of the bears. 85% of oscillators and 100% trend indicators on H4 are painted red. On D1 it is 85% and 80%, respectively. 65% of analysts also vote for the further fall of the pair. The nearest support is 1.3670, the target is a transition to the zone 1.3575-1.3610. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws the continuation of the downward trend. However, according to its forecast, the pair may rise to the resistance level of 1.3900 before heading south.
Even though the sell-off of the pound continues, many analysts note that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, has not been affected. And the fall of the last 6 weeks can be considered as a correction, after which the British currency may continue its growth. The pound will regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of the early stages of vaccination against COVID-19. In this case, according to 70% of experts, the GBP/USD pair has many chances to regain its lost positions and return first to the 1.4000 zone, and then retest the February 24 high at 1.4240 before the end of spring;

- USD/JPY. Back in early March, the volumes of purchases of futures contracts for the yen exceeded sales. But the fast pace of the US economic recovery has changed everything. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the number of short contracts on Japanese currency began to grow since mid-March, reaching record values since January 2019. 
At the moment, despite the confusion in the indicators' readings, the majority of experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis on H4, expect further weakening of the yen and the return of the USD/JPY pair, first to the level of 111.00, and then its rise another 100 points higher, to the level of 112.00.
The remaining 35% of analysts are looking south, expecting to see how the pair will test 108.40 support. Moreover, when moving to the monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 60%, and the target shifts to the zone 105.00-106.20.
As for the events of the coming week, one can note the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday April 14, from which the market will wait for signals regarding the monetary policy of the regulator for the near future.  Recall that the Bank of Japan has not been able to decide how to respond to rising yields on US securities and what to do with its own. If the yield on 10-year US bonds and commodity prices continue to rise, and the regulator does not respond to this, it could hit the yen even harder. And it has already suffered quite tangible losses, having lost more about 700 points to the dollar over the past three months.

- cryptocurrencies. The news background of the past week was quite versatile. Thus, the investment bank Morgan Stanley has filed an application with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to which 12 funds of the bank will be able to invest in BTC. Each of the funds indicated in the application will be able to place up to 25% of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. And that's good for investors.
On the other hand, the billionaire and founder of PayPal, Peter Thiel, declared out of the sudden that bitcoin has become an instrument of China's policy and is increasingly hitting the dollar. That is why, according to Peter Thiel, the US government should attend to the regulation of this benchmark cryptocurrency. It should be noted that this businessman previously supported bitcoin, and now one needs to understand who or what made him change his mind. And if the wind blows from the White House, this is a very negative signal for the cryptocurrency market.
As for the forecasts, experts of another large world bank, JPMorgan, called the long-term target for the bitcoin rate of $130,000, having lowered the bar from $146,000 due to the fall in gold quotes. Analysts made such a forecast based on the calculation of the theoretical capitalization of the first cryptocurrency in case of an influx of funds from the market of precious metals.
In general, the topic of comparing bitcoin with gold, for which cryptocurrency is becoming a digital alternative, sounds more and more often. Many bitcoin bulls in the expert environment say that BTC will be able to bypass gold in terms of capitalization in the future. In this case, the value of all bitcoins should grow 10 times and exceed the $11 trillion mark. And according to analysts at Ark Invest, that could happen within the next few years. "We believe that bitcoin is better than gold and it's safe to say that it will capture a gold market share or even more."
Billionaire and founder of the crypto bank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz agrees with the forecast of Ark Invest. He stated In a comment for CNBC that he was shocked by the pace of digital asset adoption. The investor also admitted his previous forecast of the price of the first cryptocurrency of $60,000 too conservative. “Bitcoin is on the inevitable path to reaching and exceeding the capitalization of gold,” said Novogratz.
Quite an astronomical forecast was given by the author of the book “Rich Dad, Poor Dad”, investor and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. He suggested in a recent interview that the first cryptocurrency could reach a value of $1.2 million in the next five years. Kiyosaki first bought bitcoin last year after the pandemic effectively shackled the global economy. It was then trading at $9,000. “I wish I could buy it for 10 cents, like many people did, but I still look like a genius because today it costs about $55,000. I think that in another five years it will grow to $1.2 million,” the entrepreneur announced.
At the same time, even though Kiyosaki, opposite to Peter Thiel, has turned into a defender of bitcoin, he still prefers gold and silver for main investments, explaining this by the fact that the cryptocurrency is outside the regulatory field.
And finally, at the end of the review, another crypto life hack. This time, it's about how to make money without "mining", without buying or selling cryptocurrency. After all, it turns out that it is enough just to look into the future and register a promising Internet address in time in order to become a millionaire. So, domain name registrar GoDaddy put up Roger Ver's Bitcoin.com domain for sale for $100 million earlier last week. However, this time the deal fell through: upon discovering the ad, the owner declared that it was “100% fake" and demanded to remove the domain from sale. But this does not mean that you will not be able to earn a tidy sum at other addresses. After all, there are still so many promising cryptocurrencies in the world besides bitcoin.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 13, 2021, 05:25:05 PM
New Mobile App from NordFX


(https://i.imgur.com/IAyWoHa.jpg)

The specialists of the NordFX brokerage company have developed a new convenient mobile app that allows you to conduct full-fledged trading in the financial markets without having to switch to other platforms.

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The line of trading instruments includes 33 Forex currency pairs, gold, silver, Crude and Brent oil, as well as the main cryptocurrency pairs: Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Ethereum (ETH/USD), Ripple (XRP/USD) and Litecoin (LTC/USD).

For all the inquiries, please contact Support support@nordfx.com

You can download the NordFX mobile app from Google Play

as well as from the App Store


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 14, 2021, 03:44:18 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/v94VWyS.jpg)

- The new episode of the cult animated series "The Simpsons" broadcast on of April 11 predicted an increase in the value of the first cryptocurrency to infinity. This was noticed by Reddit users. A running line with quotes of financial assets appears on the TV screen in the 18th episode of season 32. The bitcoin exchange rate is marked with a green sign of infinity.
Recall that in February 2020, the creators of "The Simpsons" released an episode called Frinkcoin, dedicated to cryptocurrencies and how blockchain technology works. They also mentioned bitcoin in a joint episode with The Griffins and in the mobile game The Simpsons: Tapped Out.

- The emulator of a vintage computer Commodore-64 produced in 1982 was used to mine cryptocurrency. The developer Maciej Vitkoviak has created the C64 Bitcoin Miner software specifically for this PC. He demonstrated a 0.2 H/s hashrate on the VICE emulator. “It will take 337 years and 10 months for the C64 to mine a block,” the developer said.

- Ethereum may surpass Bitcoin in terms of profitability in 2021, and the price of the coin may rise to $10,000. Such a forecast was given by the famous crypto trader and host of the podcast The Wolf of All Streets Scott Melker.
He revealed In an interview with Cointelegraph that he has largely switched his strategy from the first cryptocurrency to this leading altcoin in recent months. “It reminds me of investing in the Internet in the early 1990s,” Melker said. “I don’t understand why this is crazy. In fact, this is just an increase of less than five times the current price. Bitcoin almost tripled last year."

- Analysts of the Kraken exchange admitted the possibility of growth of bitcoin to $90,000. This is stated in the company's latest monthly state-of-the-industry report. Experts noted that March was one of the most successful months for the largest cryptocurrencies in terms of capitalization.
Based on historical data, analysts allowed Bitcoin to rise by 50% in April. Considering that the month began at $59,000, the target of the movement could be the $90,000 mark. However, before the rally resumes, the first cryptocurrency can expect a correction of at least $10,000.
As for Ethereum, Kraken predicts it could rise to $15,000. Exchange analysts noted the important, in their opinion, support and resistance levels for this altcoin: $1,462 and $2,695. Plotting historical patterns of ETH price movement on logarithmic curves, they concluded that the peak of the bullish cycle is still far away. The experts are confident that the price of Ethereum could rise by 700% from the levels of the end of March and reach a high at $15,238.

- The fortune of the bitcoin creator under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, who, according to various estimates, owns from 750 thousand to 1.1 million BTC coins, has exceeded $60 billion. Thanks to this, according to the Forbes rating, Nakamoto got into the top 20 richest people in the world.
Nakamoto's fortune assessment does not include bitcoin forks belonging to him. For example, the creator of the first cryptocurrency could have over $650 million in Bitcoin Cash, $250 million in Bitcoin SV, $1.1 million in Bitcoin Gold, and a host of other forks.

- According to the analytical service Santiment, large investors, or the so-called "whales", continue to accumulate bitcoins. Analysts found that they have accumulated up to 2.2% of the total cryptocurrency market supply so far, reaching an 11-month high. A similar situation was observed at the beginning of May last year.
These are investors who control 100,000 or more BTC, according to the Santiment report. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on addresses containing from 1,000 to 100,000 coins, on the contrary, decreased from 42.5% to 39.5%.

- An Italian citizen was arrested on suspicion of trying to pay with cryptocurrency for the murder of his ex-girlfriend. According to Europol, the suspect found a website on the darknet that offers such services. After there appeared a contractor ready to fulfill the order, the suspect transferred about 10 thousand euros in bitcoins to him. However, Europol and the Italian police uncovered the criminal plan in time.
Europol also tracked the cryptocurrency transfer. To this end, law enforcement agencies turned to the crypto exchange, where the suspect's virtual currency was originally purchased, and it provided the authorities with the requested information. The name of the exchange is not disclosed.

- Los Angeles-based real estate agency Caruso has partnered with the Gemini cryptocurrency exchange to accept bitcoins in residential and commercial transactions. This fact is interesting because Caruso's long list of tenants includes Tesla CEO Elon Musk. He sells his cars at the large Americana at Brand shopping and entertainment center in Glendale.
Even though Caruso has never discussed bitcoin payments with the well-known entrepreneur, it is believed that Musk may be the very first tenant to pay rent in cryptocurrency. “I didn't tell Elon about this, but he might be a trailblazer who pays rent in bitcoin,” said the company's founder and CEO Rick Caruso.

- Bitcoin miners are accumulating coins for the first time since December 2020, thus containing the downward pressure on the market. The number of bitcoins in miners' wallets has increased to 1.806 million BTC over the past two weeks.
“Miners have switched to accumulating liquid assets, because they have enough cash reserves to support their activities, which they raised during the rise of bitcoin from $20,000 to $40,000. Or, most of them are holding coins in anticipation of further appreciation,” Flex Newbie trader, CEO of Hong Kong-based Babel Finance, told CoinDesk.
Miners receive income in cryptocurrency, but they pay fiat to service providers, so they are forced to sell part of the mined coins. The volumes of such sales depend on current market conditions and expectations of the bitcoin price behavior.
Starting from March 31, miners started accumulating BTC reserves again. Whereas for four months before that, they reduced their positions, converting bitcoins to fiat. The largest volumes of cryptocurrency, from 17,000 to 24,000 BTC per day, were sold by them in January 2021.

- CNBC TV presenter Jim Kramer would switch entirely to cryptocurrency, and it would take him several years. He has already reached the point of demanding that his salary be paid in bitcoins. Apparently, he was influenced by the news that the MicroStrategy company began to pay remuneration in bitcoins to its members of the Board of Directors. Kramer named MicroStrategy a leader in Bitcoin adoption in his Mad Money program, predicting that other companies would follow suit.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 18, 2021, 03:50:42 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 19 - 23, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The past week was marked by two important economic events: impressively strong macro-statistics from the USA and a collapse in the yield of 10-year US government bonds.
According to the data published on Thursday April 15, US retail sales jumped by +9.8% in March (against the forecast +5.9% and a fall of -2.7% in February), which is the best indicator for the last 10 months. What is happening on the labor market also shows an active recovery of the country's economy. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell from 769 thousand to 576 thousand. And this is not just better than the predicted 700 thousand, this is the lowest level since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. Industrial production grew by 2.7%.
All these figures clearly indicate the rapid growth of US GDP in the first quarter of 2021. and allow us to speak with confidence about its continuation in the coming months.  Against this background, the collapse in the yield of American Treasuries, the strongest since the beginning of last November, looks surprising. If at the end of March, the yield on 10-year bonds reached a local multi-month maximum of 1.775%, now it has fallen to 1.583%.
Along with bonds, the dollar is weakening. The USD DXY index is trading in the 91.5 zone on Friday, April 16, which is 180 points below this year's high of 93.3. As a result, as predicted by most experts (65%), the EUR/USD pair continued its growth last week, coming close to the important support/resistance level of 1.2000 and ending the five-day period at 1.1980.   
This situation suggests that strong economic statistics from the United States can no longer provide serious support to the US currency. And the latter is now more correlated with the yield on Treasury bonds. Apparently, the rate of vaccination against coronavirus has already been taken into account in the USD quotes. And new fiscal stimulus programs and endless printing of new money by the Federal Reserve started working against the dollar. Its weakening has already gone beyond the usual correction, heating up the risk sentiments of investors: in addition to the euro, the currencies of commodity and developing countries are also growing, and the S&P500 index renews its all-time high for the 22nd time this year;

- GBP/USD. The weakening dollar supported the British currency, the fall of the GBP/USD pair stopped, and it even managed to climb 120 points. Thus, its movement over the past four weeks can be defined as lateralin channel 1.3670-1.3920. As for the last chord, the pair placed it in the central zone of this channel, ending the trading session at 1.3840;

- USD/JPY. It was said above about a sharp drop in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. Experts call the coverage of short positions by hedge funds, as well as the return of Japanese buyers to the market, among the possible reasons for this collapse. They were actively getting rid of American bonds at the end of the financial year, but they began to replenish their investment portfolios with them now. This led to an increase in demand for the yen, which, thanks to the negative interest rate, they use to finance such operations.
One of the scenarios pronounced a week ago suggested that the weakening of the dollar and the strengthening of the yen would push the pair USD/JPY towards the support of 108.40. This is exactly what happened: starting from the level of 109.65, the pair dropped to the horizon 108.60 by Thursday, April 15, followed by a small rebound and a finish at 108.80;     

- cryptocurrencies. What has been so much anticipated over the past eight weeks has come true: Bitcoin has finally broken through the $60,000 horizon and is now trying to gain a foothold above this important psychological level. The new historical high was the height of $64,800, which the BTC/USD pair reached on Wednesday April 14. However, a correction followed, and the bulls were struggling to prevent the main cryptocurrency from falling below $60,000 for the whole of Friday, April 16.
According to the Forbes rating, thanks to the growth of bitcoin, its creator under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto got into the top 20 richest people in the world. According to various estimates, he owns between 750k and 1.1 million BTC coins, and his fortune has exceeded $60 billion now.
But if Nakamoto became the owner of countless crypto-treasures a long time ago, then the current large investors are only at the beginning of their journey. According to the analytical service Santiment, the so-called "whales" continue to accumulate bitcoins. Analysts found that they have accumulated up to 2.2% of the total cryptocurrency market supply so far, reaching an 11-month high. A similar situation was observed at the beginning of May last year. As the Santiment report says, we are talking about investors controlling 100,000 or more BTC.
Along with the "whales", for the first time since December 2020, miners have also started to accumulate savings, which creates a shortage of supply and contributes to an increase in the price of the main digital asset.
Miners receive income in cryptocurrency, but they pay fiat to service and equipment providers, so they are forced to sell part of the mined coins. The volumes of such sales depend on current market conditions and expectations of the bitcoin price. Starting from March 31, miners started accumulating BTC reserves again. Whereas for four months before that, they reduced their positions, converting bitcoins to fiat. The largest volumes of cryptocurrency, from 17,000 to 24,000 BTC per day, were sold by them in January 2021.
“Miners have switched to accumulating digital assets, because they have enough cash reserves to support their activities, which they raised during the rise of bitcoin from $20,000 to $40,000. Or, most of them are holding coins in anticipation of further appreciation,” Flex Newbie trader, CEO of Hong Kong-based Babel Finance, told CoinDesk. The number of bitcoins in miners' wallets has increased to 1.806 million BTC over the past two weeks.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is facilitated by a weak dollar and a decrease in the yield of long-term US government bonds as well. This increases the attractiveness of cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation.
The total crypto market capitalization on April 10 finally crossed the $ 2.0 trillion bar, and never fell below it. At the time of this writing, on April 16, it is at $ 2.2 trillion.
At the same time, the share of bitcoin in the total crypto market capitalization continues to decline continuously: if it was 72.65% on January 2, then it was only 52.10% on April 16. As already mentioned, this is most likely due to the fact that speculators are switching to other, more profitable, assets.
As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it rose from 70 to 78 points in a week. Both values are in the overbought zone, but they are still far from critical, and therefore cannot become a serious obstacle to the growth of the BTC/USD pair.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned in the first part of the review, trillions of dollars of economic support programs not only increase the US national debt, but also begin to put serious pressure on the American currency. Low, close to zero interest rates do not help it either. But at the same time, the head of the FRS says that although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, it is not enough to even begin to discuss the curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs. According to Jerome Powell, this requires several more months of such positive results. The economy must “make even more significant progress” towards target levels of employment and inflation.
Of course, such statements are not good for the dollar and contribute to the growth of risk sentiment. But as for the other side of the Atlantic Ocean, there are more and more vigorous statements of EU officials about the imminent termination of lockdowns and the unprecedented growth of the Eurozone economy. According to the consensus forecast of Bloomberg experts, the ECB will slow down the emergency asset purchase (QE) program by July, and at the end of this year will announce its termination in March 2022.
All of the above could lead to the EUR/USD breakout of the 1.2000 resistance and its rise to the January highs in the 1.2300 area. Resistances on this path will be the levels 1.2125 and 1.2185.
However, at the moment such a bullish forecast is supported by only 25% of experts. True, graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators on H4 and 90% on D1 are on their side. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Only 65% of oscillators on both time frames are colored green, while the rest are already giving signals that the pair is overbought.
The majority of analysts (50%) have now taken a neutral position, believing that the bulls and the bears will be engaged in “tug-of-war” across the 1.2000 line in the near future. But the victory will still be with the dollar in the future. And, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of bears increases from 25% to 70%. In their opinion, the EUR / USD pair will test the support in the 1.1700 zone once again and, if successful, will drop another 100 points lower.
As for the events of the coming week, we should pay attention to Thursday April 22. The next ECB meeting will be held on that day. Any special changes in its monetary policy are not likely to be foreseen. However, the press conference of the management of the European Central Bank is of interest, during which investors can receive positive signals about the intentions of this regulator. If the business activity indicators in Germany and the Eurozone, which will be released the next day, April 23, also turn out to be encouraging, this could support the euro;

- GBP/USD. Problems after the UK's exit from the EU, an impressive trade deficit and the country's budget deficit continue to put pressure on the pound. And even the dollar, which weakened against other currencies, let the GBP/USD pair get just a sideways trend, but never return to sustainable growth.
The British currency may regain its attractiveness, especially if large capital that left it due to Brexit begins to return to the country. The pound is also supported by the successes of vaccination against COVID-19. Therefore, some analysts believe that the long-term uptrend, which began on March 20, 2020, is too early to be buried, and the pair has a chance to continue its movement to the north. 30% of experts vote for the bullish forecast at the moment. However, when switching to forecasting by the end of spring, their number doubles: up to 60%. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3920 and 1.4000.
In the meantime, the overwhelming majority of analysts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, first expect the pair to drop to the lower border of the 1.3670-1.3920 trading channel, and in case of its breakdown, the pair will move to the 1.3600 zone.
Among the events of the coming week that can influence the formation of local trends, we can note the release of statistics on the UK labor market on Tuesday April 20, data on the consumer market on Wednesday April 21, and business activity in the Markit service sector.¬ on Friday April 23. Noteworthy is the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on April 21 as well;

- USD/JPY. The pair starts the next week within the zone 108.60-109.25. Recall that this is the very narrow trading range from which it could not get out for three whole weeks in March. And it is quite possible that now it will become a serious obstacle on the path of the yen to further strengthening. Graphical analysis completely agrees with this version. According to its forecast on the H4 and D1 timeframes, before continuing to move south, the USD/JPY pair will be squeezed within these limits for several days.
And 70% of analysts are sure that the pair will continue to decline. Support levels are 108.35, 107.50 and 106.00; The remaining 30% expect the pair to bounce up. Resistances are at 109.25 and 110.00, the goal is to overcome the March 31 high of 110.95 and take the height of 111.00;

- cryptocurrencies. The most optimistic forecast for the bitcoin price was given by the authors of the cult animated series The Simpsons. A running line with quotes of financial assets appears on the TV screen in the new 18th episode of season 32. The bitcoin exchange rate is marked with a green sign of infinity.
Of course, such dynamics would greatly delight investors. However, the forecasts of specialists still look much more modest. Although they also strive upward. So, according to the latest report of the Kraken exchange, its analysts, relying on historical data, admitted the growth of bitcoin by 50% in April. Taking into account that the month began at $59,000, the target of the movement could be the $90,000 mark. However, before the rally resumes, the first cryptocurrency can expect a correction of at least $10,000.
As for the second major cryptocurrency, Ethereum, Kraken predicts it could rise to $15,000. Exchange analysts noted the important, in their opinion, support and resistance levels for this altcoin: $1,462 and $2,695. Plotting historical patterns of ETH price movement on logarithmic curves, they concluded that the peak of the bullish cycle is still far away. The experts are confident that the price of Ethereum could rise by 700% from the levels of the end of March and reach a high at $15,238.
A slightly more modest forecast for the price of this altcoin was given by the famous crypto trader and host of the podcast The Wolf Of All Streets Scott Melker. According to him, Ethereum may surpass bitcoin in terms of profitability in 2021, and the price of the coin may rise to $10,000.
He revealed In an interview with Cointelegraph that he has largely switched his strategy from the first cryptocurrency to ETH in recent months. “I don’t understand why this is crazy. In fact, this is just an increase of less than five times the current price. Bitcoin almost tripled last year,” Melker told reporters. “It reminds me of investing in the Internet in the early 1990s.”
Maciej Vitkoviak looked even deeper into the history, revealing to the world a crypto-life hack of almost 40 years ago - an emulator of a vintage computer Commodore-64 from 1982, adapted for mining bitcoins. This developer has created the C64 Bitcoin Miner software specifically for this PC. He demonstrated a hashrate of 0.2 H/s on the VICE emulator, which will allow him to get a block of BTC “in just” ... 337 years and 10 months ?.
(https://i.imgur.com/BPVyhwg.jpg)

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 21, 2021, 04:19:00 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/HZlbZTx.jpg)

- PayPal's Venmo mobile payment app now allows users to buy, store and sell Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash. The minimum investment in cryptocurrency is just $1. In addition, you can now share the purchased cryptocurrency with friends through the Venmo social feed.
Thus, PayPal continues to expand the functionality associated with digital assets. As a reminder, more recently, this payment giant has allowed users to buy cryptocurrency through its main platform and use their crypto wallets to pay for purchases in online stores around the world.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Willy Woo said that Bitcoin's drawdown on April 18 below $51,000 was triggered by massive power outages in China. Due to the fact that most of the miners were temporarily out of order, the hash rate of the asset began to decline. According to Woo, the situation should stabilize soon, which will lead to further increases in the value of bitcoin.
“This is a power outage in Xinjiang province. It is one of the largest regions in China where the mining power of bitcoin is concentrated. According to the BTC Cambridge Energy Consumption Index, Xinjiang accounts for about 25% of the coin's total hashrate. It becomes clear straight away that the entire cryptocurrency market has dropped significantly precisely because of the Chinese incident,” Woo said.
According to the expert, if his theory is confirmed, then the situation with the hash rate of the asset should stabilize quickly. When the main network starts processing the same number of transactions, the value of the coin will start to rise again.

- An unknown attacker allegedly stole phone numbers and credit card details of Domino's Pizza India customers and put them up for sale for 10 bitcoins (about $550,000 at the time of writing). In parallel, the hacker demanded 50 BTC ($2.75 million) from Domino's to prevent the information from getting publicly available.
Representatives of the management company confirmed the hack but denied the leak. "In accordance with our policy, we do not store financial information or credit card information of our customers, so such information has not been compromised," said Domino's Pizza.

- Candidate for the post of New York City Treasurer Reshma Patel presented an urban development plan based on investments in blockchain businesses and cryptocurrencies.
According to her plan, this should play an important role in the restoration of the city. “My intention to run for office is due to my concerns about the financial health of New York, especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. It is clear that cryptocurrencies have a future in finance and a future in financial planning in New York,” Patel said. Among other things, she plans to invest in funds focused on blockchain, create a working group to explore options for direct investment in technology, and also transfer part of the city's pension fund reserves to digital assets.

- The world-famous American magazine TIME followed the path of Tesla, and in addition to investing in bitcoin, it also began to accept cryptocurrency for subscription payments. To this end, TIME has started to cooperate with the crypto payment platform Crypto.com, offering an additional reward of 10% for those who pay for the service in native Crypto.com CRO tokens.
The service is currently available in the US and Canada, but a global expansion is planned in the coming months. TIME's rapid digital transformation is the result of our commitment to new technologies and working closely with innovative companies like Crypto.com to bring our vision to life, said TIME CTO Bharat Krish.

- Bitcoin trend remains bullish. This is the conclusion reached by analysts of the Santiment resource, who analyzed the frequency of tweets with the phrase "buy the dip" and "bought the dip". With the bitcoin price dipping below $51,000 on April 18, the number of low buy posts hit a weekly record of 2,108 tweets. This allowed Santiment analysts to conclude that this correction is nothing more than a "bump in the road."
This is not the first time Santiment has used Twitter stats to gauge the market. For example, earlier the analysts used the mention of Binance coin (BNB) to determine the peak price of this cryptocurrency.

- Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin need to be considered as alternative investments. This was stated by the deputy governor of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) Li Bo. “Bitcoin and stablecoins are encrypted assets. It is an investment asset, an alternative investment, not a currency. They should play an important role in the future,” explained Li Bo. However, he stressed the associated regulatory uncertainty. According to the official, "current practices" in the form of banning the operation of bitcoin exchanges and holding ICOs will remain in force until the development of new regulation is completed, which should become similar to the regulation of the banking system.

- Former hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money Jim Cramer called himself a "renegade" and announced the sale of his assets in the first cryptocurrency. “I know people will be mad at me, but I paid off my mortgage with bitcoin yesterday,” Kramer said on TV. The host did not elaborate on how many coins he sold. But, he said, it was half of his digital gold reserves.
Twitter users likened Kramer's move to Laszlo Hanyecz's famous 10,000 BTC purchase of pizza in May 2010.

- The Swiss giant AXA was the first of the insurance companies of this country to start accepting bitcoin for payment. To accept digital payments, the company entered into a partnership agreement with the cryptocurrency broker Bitcoin Suisse. AXA customers will be able to pay with bitcoin for all of the company's products, with the exception of life insurance. This is due to legal restrictions.
AXA has not ruled out that in the future its products can be purchased using other cryptocurrencies, but for now the company will test working with digital assets using BTC only.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 25, 2021, 05:32:12 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 26 - 30, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US economy is showing impressive growth. Europe, on the other hand, is in a widespread lockdown and, apparently, is experiencing a second recession. The share of those who received at least one COVID-19 vaccine in the EU is 25.1%, while in the United States there are 2.5 times more of them, 63.2%. Can the euro grow in such a situation? Only 25% of experts answered positively to this question last week, and they turned out to be right: the pairEUR / USD reached the level of 1.2080 on Tuesday, April 20.
The majority of analysts (50%) believed that the bulls and the bears would be engaged in “tug of war” across the 1.2000 line. And they also turned out to be not far from the truth: the pair fluctuated up/down in the range of 1.1995-1.2080 from Tuesday until the end of the week. Although, of course, the victory remained with the bulls, since the last chord of the trading session sounded near the high of the last seven weeks at 1.2100.
There are two main reasons for these dynamics. The first one is in America, the second one is on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe.
On the one hand, the yield on long-term US Treasury bonds continues to fall, and along with it the US currency continues to weaken. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies (DXY) declined to 91.0, down 230 points from this year's high of 93.3. This fuels the risk sentiment of investors and continues to push the major US stock indexes up. This happens even despite the proposal of US President Joe Biden to almost double (from 20% to 39.6%) the capital gains tax for citizens with income of $1 million or more.
On the other hand, the euro was supported by positive forecasts for the rate of vaccination in Europe, in particular the news that Pfizer will increase the supply of vaccines to the EU by 100 million doses. The yield on German bonds is growing, which are beginning to catch up with their competitors from the United States. Stronger than expected statistics on business activity in the Eurozone helped the bulls on EUR/USD as well. Analysts polled by Reuters expected on average the PMI to decline from 53.2 points to 52.8. However, it rose to 53.7 in April;

- GBP/USD. First, a few words about another pair, GBC/USD, which may appear in the foreseeable future. While in some countries, regulators ban cryptocurrencies (for example, in Turkey), in others they are trying to put them at their service. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has recently conducted a survey and it has turned out that of 66 central banks, 52 are thinking about their own digital currency. And one of these reflective regulators is the Bank of England, backed by one of the country's largest financial conglomerates, Barclays.
The digital pound has already received a playful name "Britcoin", which makes those who know what "Brit Milah" smile. For those who are not in the know, let us explain: this is a rite of circumcision among religious Jews. However, if Brit Milah is rooted in the deep past, then Britcoin is the digital future of the UK that has broken away from the EU. 
But until the GBC/USD pair has appeared in the list of trading instruments, let us return to its “older sister”, the GBP/USD pair. It went up at the beginning of the week, thanks to the weakening dollar, like EUR/USD. The pair reached a height of 1.4010 on Tuesday, having added 170 points. However, it did not manage to fix above the 1.4000 horizon: the pound lost all its advantage two days later, and the pair dropped to the level of 1.3825. At the very end of the trading week, the pound was helped by strong statistics on business activity in the services sector: the Markit index rose from 56.3 to 60.1 (against the forecast of 59.0) over the month, thanks to which the pair grew slightly and completed the five-day period at 1.3885;

- USD/JPY. Recall that we talked in the previous review about the fact that one of the reasons for the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds, and with it the strengthening of the yen against the dollar, may be the return of Japanese buyers to the market. They were actively getting rid of American bonds at the end of the financial year, but they began to replenish their investment portfolios with them now.
The majority of analysts (70%) voted seven days ago for the fact that the growth of the Japanese currency and the decline of the USD/JPY pair will continue, and this forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. The level 107.50 was indicated as a support, which became the local bottom of the week. This was followed by a correction and a finish at 107.85;

- cryptocurrencies. While the task of the bulls on Friday, April 16 was to prevent the BTC/USD pair from falling below $60,000, they are struggling seven days later to gain a foothold in the $50,000 area. After the explosive growth to $64,800, which took place on the eve of the American exchange Coinbase' IPO, we are witnessing an equally rapid collapse now. The price of bitcoin was falling to the level of $47,545 on Friday April 23, showing a 26.6% drop.
It is difficult to single out any one reason for what happened. Prominent analyst Willy Woo said the drawdown was triggered by massive power outages in Xinjiang province, one of the largest regions in China where bitcoin mining is concentrated. According to the BTC Cambridge Energy Consumption Index, Xinjiang accounts for about 25% of the coin's total hashrate. Due to the fact that most of the miners were temporarily out of order, the hash rate of the asset began to decline, and the average transaction fee on the bitcoin network exceeded $50, which has not been the case since 2017.
According to Woo, bitcoin should have returned to growth after the electricity supply situation stabilized. Electricity returned to Xinjiang, but bitcoin continued its decline.
We have repeatedly written that the crypto market is heavily influenced by regulatory risks. And in this case, it is possible that panic has been fueled by the rumors that an investigation may begin in the United States regarding a number of financial institutions on suspicion of money laundering using cryptocurrencies. Additional pressure on the market was made by two news stories. The first is the news that the US Congress has approved the creation of a SEC and CFTC working group to develop cryptocurrency regulation. The second is the plans of US President Joe Biden to raise taxes on capital gains, which could limit investment in digital assets.
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 17% over the week, from $2.2 trillion to $1.825 trillion. Meanwhile, bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization on January 2 was 72.65%, then it is only 50.70% on April 23. This suggests that investors are looking for more profitable assets for their investments among altcoins, of which there are currently more than 8,000. Just look at the Ethereum quotes. Despite the April 18 crash, this leading altcoin managed to renew its all-time high last week, reaching $2,635. Of course, a wave of sales did not pass it, but the fall in the price of ETH over the week was only about 11%. As for the participation of Ethereum in the total capitalization of the crypto market, its share has grown from 10.79% to 14.49% since the year started.
Summing up the past week, we note that the bitcoin price dropped below the 50-day average, which is quite an alarming factor and may provoke further sales. The BTC dominance index, as already mentioned, is also going down. However, it is still far from the lows of early 2018, when it fell to 32%. Another index, Crypto Fear & Greed Index, dropped from 78 to 55 points during the week and approached the neutral zone.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As expected, the European Central Bank
maintained an ultra-soft policy and did not make any adjustments at its meeting on April 22. And its head Christine Lagarde made every effort to limit further growth of the euro. Investors should have concluded from her speech that the ECB will begin to roll back fiscal stimulus (QE) later than the US Federal Reserve, since the EU economy lags behind the American one. (According to JPMorgan forecasts, the GDP of the Eurozone, after a 1% decline in the first quarter of 2021, is expected to grow by 6% in the second quarter. In the US, the same figures are +5% and +10%).
The ECB is not interested in a strong euro, as it interferes with European exports, and considers the current EUR/USD quotes to be quite high. However, Ms. Lagarde was unable to reverse the pair's downward trend. Moreover, it is very likely that the US Federal Reserve Head Jerome Powell will say the same thing at its upcoming meeting on Wednesday, April 28 as she did: that, although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is absolutely not enough to start discussing curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs.
The next meeting of the ECB will be held on June 10, and a lot can happen during this time. The euro will be pushed upwards by the increasing rate of vaccination and the economic recovery of the EU. And the bears are unlikely to be able to turn the pair south until the yield on US Treasuries starts to rise again.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the four largest countries in the Eurozone will vaccinate 37% of their population by the end of May, and this figure will already be 54% by the end of June. As a result, the bank raised its forecast for EUR/USD from $1.2100 by the end of the year to $1.2500.
The latest Bloomberg consensus estimate, on the contrary, decreased. If the figure called in January was 1.2500, now it is 1.2200. Although this value suggests further strengthening of the euro.
The main event of the coming week will be the meeting of the Open Market Committee of the US Federal Reserve System and the commentary of its management on the future monetary policy. Jerome Powell, as already mentioned, is likely to adhere to a rhetoric similar to Christine Lagarde, which may put another pressure on the yield of American bonds and the USD rate.
Growth of the euro in the coming week is expected by 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators onH4 and D1. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought. Resistance levels are 1.2125, 1.2185, the target is the February 25 high at 1.2245.
It should be noted that when switching to the forecast for May, the picture changes sharply, and here it is already 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, who expect the EUR/USD pair to fall below the 1.2000 horizon. Supports are located at 1.1940, 1.1865 and 1.1800 levels. The target of the bears is the low of the end of March around 1.1700.
As for the events of the coming week, apart from the Fed meeting, one should pay attention to the statistics on consumer markets: the USA - on Monday April 26, Germany - on Thursday April 29 and the Eurozone¬ - Friday April 30. In addition, GDP indicators for the first quarter will become known: the USA - April 29, as well as Germany and the Eurozone - April 30;

- GBP/USD. A number of experts believe that successful vaccination of the population will help warm up the UK economy. Quarantine restrictions have been severely relaxed in recent weeks, pubs and restaurants have opened. Macro statistics are encouraging. However, Brexit-related concerns, massive trade deficits and UK budget deficits continue to weigh on the pound. But the dollar is also under pressure. Perhaps that is why the forecast for the GBP/USD pair looks rather contradictory: 45% of experts vote for its movement to the north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east. The technical analysis readings on H4 look contradictory as well.
On D1, thanks to the uptrend that began 13 months ago, most of the oscillators (65%) and trend indicators (85%) look up. Graphical analysis also indicates that the pair will try again to storm the 1.40000 high, but after that it will go down to the support in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone. The nearest resistance level is 1.3920, the nearest support is 1.3800;

- USD/JPY. The key indicator for this pair was and is the yield on US government bonds. If it continues to decline next week, then the pair USD/JPY will go further down. The nearest support is in the 106.80-107.10 zone, the next one is located near the 200-day moving average of 105.80.
The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will continue to fall. The remaining 30% expect the pair to rebound upward (resistance levels 108.35 and 109.00). There is complete discord among the oscillators on H4, on D1 - 75% are colored red, and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Graphical analysis on both time frames shows that at first the pair can rise to the resistance of 108.35, and only then, having bounced off this level, it will sharply go down;
(https://i.imgur.com/RiTAMUQ.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. According to a number of experts, the drop in the share of bitcoin in the total capitalization of the crypto market is a very alarming factor for investors. Recall that the dominance index of the leading cryptocurrency was 85% at the beginning of 2017, and it decreased to 45% before the collapse. Now this figure is just over 50%. Pessimists argue that the rise in BTC/USD quotes before the listing of Coinbase on the NASDAQ exchange was the last stage of the bullish rally, and we need to prepare for a new "crypto winter" now, which could stretch for several years. This is confirmed by the massive liquidation of BTC futures.
However, as is usually the case, in addition to pessimists, there are also optimists. For example, analysts at Santiment believe that bitcoin's trend remains bullish. They have reached this conclusion having analyzed the frequency of tweets with the phrase "buy the dip" and "bought the dip". With the bitcoin price dipping below $51,000, the number of low buy posts hit a weekly record of 2,108 tweets. This allowed Santiment analysts to conclude that this correction is nothing more than a "bump in the road."
However, two thousand Twitter users are unlikely to seriously affect the market. Much more important is the mood of institutional investors who are not crypto enthusiasts at all. And there is a high probability that they will not be active until there is clarity on the attitude of the leading regulators to the sector. Those of the "whales" who purchased the cryptocurrency in the fall of 2020 may well start fixing profits at the current level: the price around $45,000-50,000 is more than acceptable for them. But new large purchases look quite risky.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 28, 2021, 04:31:11 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/71YgbpV.jpg)

- The Cuban authorities have decided that cryptocurrencies are necessary for building socialism and have included them in the program for the country's economic development until 2026. The document is titled "Guiding Principles of the Party's Economic and Socialist Policy."
The idea of introducing cryptocurrencies into the domestic economy of the country was first voiced in 2019. The authorities announced then that they were going to use the assets for external payments, since operations with the dollar became unavailable for them due to the sanctions imposed by the United States against Cuba. The new set of measures includes support for cryptocurrency initiatives. We are also talking about currency liberalization, which should allow citizens and companies to use any type of assets for settlements.
The Cuban authorities want to build on the experience of Venezuela, which was able to introduce its own cryptocurrency called El Petro and made possible the use of bitcoin and other digital assets. Several national payment platforms have appeared in the country, designed to work with cryptocurrencies.

- Bill Miller, legendary investor and founder of hedge fund Miller Value Partners, said it was no longer possible to ignore bitcoin. According to him, cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, which is why they will be fully adopted within a few years. The financier did not rule out that central banks will try to control the situation, but they will still have to give up sooner or later.
“If bitcoin was considered a kind of internal network asset earlier, and the overwhelming majority of citizens were sure that it would soon collapse, everyone is now waiting for a new wave of bullish sentiment to buy as many coins as possible at a bargain price. Investors have everything under control now, because of which exchanges can no longer move the asset to drawdowns or growth so simply,” Miller believes.
The financier recalled that he first invested in BTC in 2014 or 2015 at an average price of $350 per coin. Now such amounts seem so distant past that no investor believes in returning to them.

- Tesla sold part of its bitcoins for $272 million, generating a profit of $101 million from this transaction. This is stated in the report for the first quarter of 2021. According to Elon Musk, the electric car maker sold 10% of its crypto assets solely to test the liquidity of the market.
Recall that the company invested $1.5 billion in BTC just in early February. And according to Tesla's management, the company is satisfied with the liquidity of the market for the first cryptocurrency and will continue to accumulate digital assets, selling part of its electric vehicles for bitcoins.

- The growing interest in cryptocurrencies threatens the South Korean labor market with a shortage of Newbie trader workers. According to a number of employers, their employees aged between 20 and 30 are distracted by tracking bitcoin price fluctuations or quit their jobs to devote themselves entirely to trading. In this regard, some companies are looking for ways to block access to cryptocurrency exchanges during business hours.
The 20-year-old Chosun interviewee left the credit card company after three years as he earned 3 billion wons ($2.7 million) in cryptocurrency revenues. “I loved the job,” he says, “but I realized that financially it would be wiser to focus on investing, taking into account the income from the time I spend.”

- The creator of the sports media platform Barstool Sports Dave Portnoy announced the investment of a "seven-figure" amount in the first cryptocurrency in August 2020. He did this after he met with the founders of the Gemini exchange, the Winklevoss brothers. Later, the investor sold all his bitcoins at a price of about $11,600. He said that he lost a decent amount on the market drawdown and was disappointed in cryptocurrencies.
And now Dave Portnoy has reacquired digital gold in the amount of... 1 bitcoin. “This is all I could afford at $48,000. 50 thousand, and now I have one bitcoin,” stated the creator of Barstool Sports.

- In 1581, the Russian Tsar Ivan the Terrible killed his son, in anger. And now, 440 years later, one of the residents of Moscow filed a complaint with the police against his son, in anger. He did this after he failed to receive over 100 million rubles (approx. $1.35 million) from the family's cryptocurrency mining farm. The Russian created a mining company in 2017 and appointed his 23-year-old son its CEO, while he continued to periodically invest in the business. In April 2021, the company started having problems and the head of the family fired his son. According to his father's calculations, at least 137 million rubles should have been on the company's account, but he found only 18 million, after which he reported to the police.

- New York-based wine distributor Acker, Merrall & Condit has announced that it has begun accepting digital currencies as payment at its auctions and retail stores. Acker, Merrall & Condit is the world's largest fine wine auction house, founded back in 1820. After the pandemic, the company found itself in the same boat as other retailers as most of its offline stores were closed.
To offset the impact of COVID-19, the organization has placed a bid on its own online auction. Prices for some of the best wines it has to offer are around $1000 a bottle. And according to the company's management, it is very fortunate that now they can be paid for with such cryptocurrencies as Bitcoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Dogecoin.

- One of the JPMorgan top managers, Daniel Pinto, announced back in February 2021 that his bank was ready to launch a service for operations with bitcoin if the bank's clients needed it. And this week, the Coin Desk portal reported that the American giant decided to launch a fund focused on BTC. The journalists found out that the JPMorgan bitcoin fund will be available only to private clients and will start operating this summer.
Note that the head of this investment bank, Jamie Dimon, had previously repeatedly criticized BTC, stating that the cryptocurrency is a common fraudulent scheme. Daimon even threatened his traders with firing if they tried to invest in bitcoin. But as you can see, the position of Dimon and the policy of JPMorgan have changed significantly now.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin donated 100 ETH and 100 MKR totaling over $600,000 to a fund to fight the coronavirus pandemic in India. Following Buterin, the former CTO of the Coinbase crypto exchange Balaji Srinivasan joined the campaign, donating 21.7463 ETH (almost $550,000 at the time of payment).

- The creator of the stock-to-flow model, a popular cryptocurrency analyst aka PlanB, believes that the current decline in bitcoin is quite normal and expected, and only confirms the bullish trend. The analyst stressed that one should not expect constant growth, sometimes pullbacks should also occur: “Nothing grows without pullbacks. Bitcoin has already been growing for 6 months in a row. This is similar to the mid-cycle correction we saw in 2013 and 2017.”
At the same time, the expert noted that he even “calmed down to some extent”: the market was too overheated, and now a small “cooling” phase awaits it. In addition, the rate of the first cryptocurrency turned out to be lower currently than the expectations of the S2F model, which means it may well continue to grow.

- The bitcoin rate will reach $200,000 in 2022. This forecast was recently announced by Dan Morehead, CEO of venture capital firm Pantera Capital. According to the businessman, BTC is doomed to further growth, as more and more investors begin to understand that storing capital in cryptocurrency is much more efficient than in traditional instruments.
The value of BTC adds $200 every time 1 million new users register on its network. If such dynamics persist, the price of cryptocurrency in 2022 will approach or even exceed the $200,000 mark.
According to Dan Morehead, the spread of bitcoin is a result of, among other things, the growth in the number of smartphone users. There are now about 3.5 billion people in the world who own such devices, making bitcoin available anywhere and at any time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 30, 2021, 05:18:20 PM
Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders


(https://i.imgur.com/Fac6FKT.jpg)

The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on July 1, October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 02, 2021, 05:16:07 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 03 - 07, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The last week of April was marked by three events¬: the Fed meeting, as well as the publication of data on the US and Eurozone GDP.
As for the US Fed, the results of its meeting were predictable. The interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25%. The volume of the quantitative easing program (QE) remained the same, $120 billion monthly. And the head of the regulator Jerome Powell uttered almost word for word what we wrote in the previous forecast: although the pace of the US economic recovery is impressive, this is completely insufficient to talk about curtailing fiscal stimulus programs. So far, everything is rather fragile, the acceleration of inflation, according to Powell, is a temporary factor, and the number of people employed remains 8.5 million lower than in February 2020.
On the other hand, US GDP growth in the first quarter was higher than forecast and amounted to 6.4% (against 4.3% a quarter earlier), showing the best dynamics since 1984. The country's economy needs to add just 1% to reach the pre-crisis high. And, most likely, it will fully recover even before the beginning of July by to this indicator.
Such strong statistics led to an increase in the yield of US Treasuries. But this did not help the dollar much until the end of the week, since European bonds were also growing. Germany's 10-year debt rates have hit their highest since March 2020.
The gap between the US and the EU in terms of the speed of return to pre-crisis indicators may also soon be narrowed. ECB President Christine Lagarde said on April 28 that "a light is already visible at the end of the tunnel as the pace of vaccination in the EU accelerates" and that economic recovery is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year.
As a result of the above, the fight between the bulls and the bears on EUR/USD has been going on with varying success all week. Strong inflationary expectations continue to weigh on the dollar. President Joe Biden continues to flood the economy with colossal amounts of money. Following the $1.9 trillion stimulus already approved by Congress, $2.25 trillion in infrastructure development and $1.8 trillion in social support are awaiting their turn. As a result of such steps by the US administration, the dollar went down and the EUR/USD pair renewed its two-month high on Thursday, April 29, reaching 1.2150.
However, thanks to not the most impressive macro statistics from the EU, the European currency nevertheless lost ground on Friday. An additional impetus to the dollar was given by the auction for the placement of treasury bonds on Friday evening, April 30. The US Treasury Department sold $130.6 billion worth of debt securities there. This withdrawal of liquidity from the financial system provided additional support to the American currency. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period significantly below the start of the week, at the level of 1.2020;

- GBP/USD. When providing last week's forecast for the pair, 45% of experts voted for its move north, 35% to the south and the remaining 20% to the east.
As expected by most of them (45%), the pound was strengthening its positions the first four days, and investors started to hope that the GBP/USD pair would break through the 1.4000 level again and return to steady growth, as it had been since the end of March 2020 until the end of February 2021 However, having reached 1.3975, its movement stalled, the bearish pressure intensified, and it collapsed downward at the very end of the week, as 35% of analysts had expected. Pushed by the results of the auction held by the US Treasury, the pair reached the local bottom at the 1.3800 horizon. This was followed by a couple of small bounces and a finish at 1.3810, which can be considered the Pivot Point of the last 9 weeks. So, those 20% of experts who voted for the sideways trend of the pair were also satisfied;

- USD/JPY. It has already been said that the yield on US government bonds has been the key indicator for this pair. It was growing over the past week. The dollar grew along with it against the yen. As a result, the USD/JPY pair rose above the level of 109.00 and, having added 145 points, completed the trading session at 109.30; 

- cryptocurrencies. When making a forecast seven days ago, we wrote that the main task of the bulls last week would be to keep the BTC/USD pair in the $ 50,000 area. And, they succeeded, though with difficulty. Despite the fact that the quotes fell to $47,000 on April 25, they managed to rise again to the $50,000-55,000 zone. Investors and speculators began to actively acquire coins at the bottom, counting on further profits. And if the total capitalization of the crypto market was at the level of $1.750 trillion on April 26, it had already reached $2.110 trillion on the last day of the month.
Although not much, the news background helped the bulls. So, the news portal Coin Desk reported that the American financial giant JPMorgan had finally decided to launch a fund focused on BTC. Reporters found out that this bitcoin fund will start operating this summer.
The launch of Bitcoin-ETF could serve as another support factor.  However, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postponed its decision on the VanEck application until June. At the moment, a total of 10 applications for launching ETFs have been submitted, and the regulator decided that it needs more time to study them.
So, the main cryptocurrency stayed in the area around $50,000. But it was never able to rise above the 50-day moving average, which has served as sustained support for the BTC/USD pair since October 2020. As the quotes approach this line, which has now become resistance, the activity of buyers begins to fall sharply. And this is a rather alarming sign for investors: the market is in thought, which is confirmed by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index located in the heart of the neutral zone: at the level of 51 points.
We have repeatedly said that in such a situation of uncertainty with the reference cryptocurrency, many investors are turning their attention to altcoins. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. If its share in the total capitalization was 72.65% on January 2, and 50.70% on April 23, then it fell even lower by the end of the month, reaching the level lowest since July 2018: 47.87%.
On the other hand, the attractiveness of Ethereum is constantly growing. CoinMetrics calculates that the hashrate in the Ethereum network has grown by 89% over the past 100 days. And the ETH/USD pair, unlike Bitcoin, continues to update historical highs over and over again, rising to a height of $2,790 on April 29.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. According to Dow Jones Market Data, the S&P500 rose 11% during Joe Biden's first 100 days as President of the United States. This was the best result since President Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, and on average, since 1929, stock indices grew by 3.2% annually.
On the other hand, being the most powerful in the world, the US economy will pull up with it the economies of other countries, leveling the gap in the speed of their recovery. The dollar should also be helped by an increase in yields on US Treasury bonds.
So far, giving a forecast for the coming week, 60% of experts expect that the EUR/USD pair will try to go up again. The nearest resistance is 1.2055 and 1.2100, the target is to reach the April 29 high of 1.2150. 70% of oscillators and 75% of trend indicators on D1 agree with this forecast. The remaining 30% of the oscillators are colored neutral grey.
When moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the opinion of experts changes radically. Here, 75% of them are waiting for the dollar to strengthen and the pair to drop to the 1.1900 zone, and then another 100 points lower. The target of the bears is to update the March 31 low of 1.1704.
Graphical analysis on D1 indicates the movement of the pair in the trading range of 1.1945-1.2150. At the same time, according to its readings on H4, the pair first faces a decline to the lower border of this channel, and then a rebound upward.
As for the events of the coming week, one should note the publication of ISM business activity data in manufacturing (May 3) and private (May 5) sectors of the United States. We are also waiting for US employment data: the ADP report will be released on Wednesday May 5, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) will be known on Friday May 7.
The European consumer market is likely to delight investors on May 3 and 6. The fall in retail sales in Germany is forecast to narrow from -9.0% to -3.15%. Retail sales in the Eurozone as a whole may, according to forecasts, grow from -2.9% to + 9.4%;

- GBP/USD. The main event for the British currency will be the meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 6, which will be devoted to monetary policy. The interest rate is most likely to remain unchanged at 0.1%. As for QE, the volume of purchases of government bonds may be reduced from ?895 to 875 billion. If this happens, the market will receive a signal about the intention of the British regulator to start tightening its policy.
The bank may also revise its forecasts regarding the speed of economic recovery in the country. There are many reasons for this. Thus, unemployment in Great Britain decreased by 0.1% in the first quarter, from 5.0% to 4.9%. Almost 30 million people have already been vaccinated in the country, of whom more than 2.5 million received two doses of vaccines against COVID-19. Some of the quarantine restrictions have been removed. And all these are positive factors for the pound, which may push the GBP/USD pair up again. This is confirmed by the forecasts of graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
As for the readings of technical indicators, they look rather indistinct on D1 due to the sideways movement of recent weeks. On H4, naturally, most are painted red, although 25% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold. 
As for the experts, 60% expect the pair to grow at least to the level of 1.4000. In case it manages to break through it, the next target is 1.4240. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3860, 1.3925 and 1.3975.
The remaining 40% of analysts side with the bears. The main support is in the zone 1.3670-1.3700, then - 1.3600;

- USD/JPY. The experts' opinion coincides completely with what was expressed a week earlier. 70% of them believe that the pair will go south again, below the horizon at 109.00. The next supports are 108.40 and 107.45. The remaining 30% of analysts expect the pair to continue to rise. Resistance is at 110.00, the target is to rise another 100 pips to 111.00.
As for the indicators, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 70% and 95% on D1 are coloured green. The remaining oscillators signal that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a fall of the pair to the level of 107.45;

- cryptocurrencies. So, as it was said in the first part of the review, the BTC/USD pair did not manage to break above the 50-day moving average on the last day of April. And this looks like a wake-up call for investors. Especially because the fall below this line happened for the first time since the beginning of October last year, when the pair just broke the $10,000 level.
The Bitcoin Dominance Index also fell below 50%, which, attracting institutions, dragged the entire crypto market up with it like a locomotive.
Taken together, both of these factors, according to a number of analysts, strongly resemble the situation in January 2018, which marked the beginning of a protracted crypto winter.
But, along with pessimists, the voices of optimists are usually heard. Thus, the creator of the stock-to-flow model, a popular cryptocurrency analyst known as PlanB, believes that the current decline in bitcoin is quite normal and expected, and only confirms the bullish trend. The analyst stressed that one should not expect constant growth, sometimes pullbacks should also occur: “Nothing grows without pullbacks. Bitcoin has already been growing for 6 months in a row. This is similar to the mid-cycle correction we saw in 2013 and 2017.”
PlanB noted that he even “calmed down to some extent”: the market was too overheated, and now a small “cooling” phase awaits it. In addition, the rate of the first cryptocurrency turned out to be lower currently than the expectations of the S2F model, which means it may well continue to grow.
Dan Morehead, CEO of venture capital firm Pantera Capital, is also positive. According to the businessman, BTC is doomed to further growth, as more and more investors begin to understand that storing capital in cryptocurrency is much more efficient than in traditional instruments.
According to the calculations by the head of Pantera Capital, the value of BTC adds $200 every time 1 million new users register on its network. If such dynamics persist, the price of cryptocurrency in 2022 will approach or even exceed the $200,000 mark.
According to Dan Morehead, the spread of bitcoin is a result of, among other things, the growth in the number of smartphone users. There are now about 3.5 billion people in the world who own such devices, making bitcoin available anywhere and at any time.
(https://i.imgur.com/kOwqs9D.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 04, 2021, 05:23:41 PM
New NordFX Savings Account: Investment Income Plus Trading Income


(https://i.imgur.com/HT2rmAo.jpg)

The new Savings Account from NordFX represents a unique know-how developed by the company's specialists, based on DeFi technology. This account allows you not only to receive passive income up to 30% per annum, but also to increase your profits through operations in the financial markets. It is just enough to take a trade loan at only 3%.

DeFi (from the English "Decentralized financing") is a term for special applications in cryptocurrency or blockchain, aimed at eliminating financial intermediaries. It is these advantages of DeFi that have formed the basis of the innovative new NordFX Savings Account, allowing its owners to generate profits many times higher than interest on bank deposits. Passive income on their investments is currently about 30% per annum and may vary.

The world's most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), the rate of which is secured by real US dollars in a ratio of 1:1, is used as the account currency. The minimum deposit amount for this account is equal to $500. In addition to USDT, deposits are also allowed with USDC and DAI stablecoins, which will be automatically converted to USDT. Withdrawals are also possible in USDT.

The undoubted advantage of this account is the ability to take a trade loan secured by the funds placed in it. The interest on the loan is only 3% per annum and is deducted from the investment income. The loan funds are instantly credited to the balance of the Trader's Cabinet and can be used for trading on terms similar to those of a Zero account.

This feature gives account holders the opportunity to maximize returns on their investments through trading in financial markets.

Investment income is credited to the Savings Account on a daily basis and can be withdrawn at any time without restrictions.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 05, 2021, 06:20:36 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/ssPYuPI.jpg)

- Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. Many DeFi application developers are already using the Ethereum blockchain more than the main net.
Experts note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. Investors in the main cryptocurrency are not very worried about minor jumps, however, with a long negative trend, they start to withdraw assets quickly. During the recent correction, it was Bitcoin that lost most of its capitalization.
“Bitcoin, on the other hand, is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is Most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity, and ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” JPMorgan analysts note.

- Founded in 1744, Sotheby's will auction the work of street art genius Banksy, Love is in the Air. They plan to accept bets in US dollars, bitcoins and ethereums. The work has been initially estimated at $3-5 million. The auction will take place on May 12 and will be the first experience for Sotheby's in selling works of art for cryptocurrency.
 
- S&P Dow Jones Indices, a division of US financial data provider S&P Global, has launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and a basket of these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index - SPCMC.
Indices are calculated in points, not in US dollars. According to a S&P spokesman, instead of the actual cost, they reflect price changes, and should compete with counterparts from Bloomberg and Galaxy.
The data is calculated on weekdays and will be available by subscription for service customers. Rebalancing is carried out on a quarterly basis.

- Back in May 2019, crypto enthusiasts noticed an advertisement for the American online trading giant eBay with the words “Virtual Currency. It's happening on eBay. " Later, representatives of the site denied rumors about adding support for cryptocurrencies. And now, two years later, on CNBC, the head of the company, Jamie Iannone, said that eBay is still considering the possibility of accepting payments in digital assets.

- Renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.”
“But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist.

- Ethereum continues to rise in price amid the growing popularity of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications designed to replace banks and insurance companies. The price of the leading altcoin surpassed $3,000 on May 3, for the first time in history. As a result, the fortune of Ethereum creator Vitaly Buterin, who owns 333,520 coins, reached $1.09 billion.
Thus, 27-year-old Buterin has become the Newbie traderest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. His fortune has grown almost 25 times since the beginning of 2020, according to Forbes.

- A startup employee told a story about how the employer demanded that the salary paid in cryptocurrency be returned after its rate increased by 700%.
According to him, the CEO of the company offered him a settlement in cryptocurrency at the signing of the contract in the spring of 2020. The contract contained a clause that the employer could have him being paid in dollars, but the employee refused to do so.
And just recently, he received a message from his employer demanding the return of all the cryptocurrency. “In return, you can bill the company for hours worked in dollars,” the letter read.
The MarketWatch portal, on which the story was published, advised him not to return the cryptocurrency, since the employer would hardly want to pay extra if the rate collapsed.
Although the author does not specify the name of the cryptocurrency, Ethereum fits the description, the rate of which has grown by 790% since August 1.

- Bitcoin is less volatile than stocks of companies such as Apple and Tesla, said the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Binance Changpeng Zhao in an interview with Bloomberg TV. According to Zhao, significant price fluctuations are observed not only in the cryptocurrency, but also in the stock market. At the same time, Bitcoin is less volatile than shares of companies with comparable market capitalization.
According to him, “profit hunters” are often to blame for this. They do not analyze the market but invest money in assets against the backdrop of positive news. “There are always more people driven by herd instinct than those who really do serious research. When negative news appears, they leave the market, when positive news appears, they try to enter again. This causes a lot of volatility,” explained the CEO of Binance.
Earlier, Zhao advised traders who are stressed by every price drop to change their strategy to buy and hold. In his opinion, this is not the best recommendation for professionals, but good advice for beginners.

- Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization, said fellow Warren Buffett, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate Bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
At the same time, another critic of cryptocurrency, billionaire Warren Buffett, this time declined to comment on Bitcoin. The legendary investor emphasized that digital money is now supported by "hundreds of thousands against two people." “We have a choice: to make 400 thousand people angry and upset, or to make two happy,” he noted ironically.

- American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 07, 2021, 06:19:25 PM
NordFX Summed Up April Results: TOP 3 Most Successful Traders and IB-Partners


(https://i.imgur.com/3Z5agR6.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in April was received by a client from Malaysia, account No. 1208XXX, whose profit amounted to 20,590 USD. Whereas in previous months, when trading cryptocurrencies, NordFX traders profited mainly from bitcoin transactions, now Bitcoin SV, a coin that appeared as a result of the Bitcoin Cash hardfork, has entered the business. In addition to the BSV/USD pair, transactions with the altcoin Dash (DSH/USD) also helped the Malaysian trader to become the leader. This reflects the trends of recent weeks, when transactions with some altcoins have become more profitable than transactions with the main cryptocurrency.

The second place on the podium is taken by a trader from Thailand, account No. 2009XXX, with a result of18,788 USD, obtained for CAD/JPY and EUR/GBP.

Trader from China, No.1286XXX, who is the third place by the month's results, also traded the Canadian dollar and the British pound. Their profit of 16,523 USD was obtained mainly for USD/CAD and GBP/USD pairs.

CopyTrading is the leader in passive investing services, with the NVI Venture Capital signal, which showed a yield of 193% in just one last week of April with the maximum drawdown of 41.5%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a rather aggressive trading style, so subscribers should not forget about risk management.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, USD 11.714, was accrued to a partner from Sri Lanka, account No.1483xxx;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401xxx, who received $6,339;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.1527xxx, who received $5.762 as a reward, closes the top three.

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. In April, the $100,000 superlottery started, in which 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 each and a super prize of $20,000 will be drawn among NordFX clients.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 09, 2021, 08:18:53 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 10 - 14, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. There has been a lot of talk for a long time about how quickly and how well the US economy is recovering. But the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, warned a week ago that everything is still quite fragile, and the acceleration of inflation is a temporary factor. Apparently, he already knew it then, and now everyone else knows it too: not everything is as rosy as it seemed.
The bulk of US macroeconomic indicators released last week are colored red. The ISM business activity index in the manufacturing sector is 60.7 instead of 65.0 as was forecasted. The ADP report on the employment rate in the private sector is 742K instead of the forecasted 800K. The ISM business activity index in the services sector is 62.7 instead of 64.3. And it is a complete disaster with such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP): 770K was created in March, 978K was expected in April, but only 266K were actually created, that is, 3.7 times less than the forecast.
Of course, investors had plenty of time to cash in on the recovery of the U.S. economy. And now it seems that the time has come to switch to other regions and, first of all, to the European Union. Moreover, vaccination against coronavirus in Europe is becoming more widespread, EU member states are gradually lifting quarantine restrictions, and the economy is gaining momentum. Unlike the US, retail sales in the Eurozone showed convincing growth, rising from minus 1.5% in March to plus 12.0% in April. And this is against the forecast of 9.6%.
The above has put strong pressure on the dollar and contributed to the strengthening of the European currency. As a result, the forecast given by the majority of experts (60%) came true 100%: the EUR/USD pair went up again and renewed the six-week high on the evening of Friday, May 07, reaching the height of 1.2170. This was followed by a slight rebound and a finish at 1.2165; 

- GBP/USD. The forecast has turned out to be absolutely correct in this case as well. This pair has been moving in a side channel 1.3670-1.4000 for 10 weeks. And the majority of experts had voted for the fact that, having rebounced off the central zone of this corridor, the pair would go up and reach its upper border. This is what actually happened. Having started on Monday at 1.3810, the pair reached the height of 1.4000 on Friday, not far from where, at 1.3990, it finished the working week;

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, 70% of analysts had pointed to the south. In their opinion, the pair should have dropped below the horizon of 109.00, and the level of 108.40 was called as a support. And that is what happened. True, the bulls made an attempt to repeat the success of a week ago on Monday, but their strength dried up quickly. The pair turned down, reached the local bottom at 108.35 on Friday 07 May, and then put the last chord at 108.60;

- cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin is disgusting and contrary to the interests of civilization", said Warren Buffett's fellow, 97-year-old billionaire Charles Munger. “Of course, I hate bitcoin's success. I do not welcome currency, which is created out of thin air and is so useful for kidnappers and extortionists,” Munger emphasized.
The 97-year-old investor is now likely be attributed not only to the “sharks” of Wall Street, but also to the “dinosaurs.” Virtual assets go beyond their perception of the world: after all, they are accustomed to dealing with currencies and securities, which have a very real, and not fictitious, basis. Nevertheless, the clink of digital gold is already heard in almost every financial centre on the planet. Financial data provider S&P Dow Jones Indices has even launched indices based on Bitcoin, Ethereum and on the basket with these cryptocurrencies. The S&P Bitcoin Index received the ticker SPBTC, the S&P Ethereum Index - SPETH, and the S&P Crypto Mega Cap Index which tracks the dynamics of these two assets, - SPCMC.
The adoption of cryptocurrencies is growing not only among large institutional investors, but also among the general population. The American financial services giant Mastercard has presented the results of its research conducted in 18 countries in various regions of the world. According to its data, 40% of consumers plan to use crypto assets for their payments next year. Among millennials, the figure is even higher, reaching 67%.
It would seem that all of the above should only benefit digital currencies. But it is not so. Bitcoin is beginning to increasingly correlate with traditional markets. And after bitcoin, altcoins also fall into this bundle. Thus, the crypto market, as well as the stock market, is now heavily dependent on the policies pursued by the White House and the U.S. Federal Reserve. And if fiscal stimulus programs (QE) are cut, the money stream fueling the cryptocurrency market could dry up quickly enough.
Until this happens, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization is showing smooth growth. It grew from $2.110 trillion to $2.375 trillion, that is, by 12.56%, over the past week. At the same time, the capitalization of the altcoin market showed an increase of more than 20%. Bitcoin continues to lose ground. Its Dominance Index was 72.65% on January 2; it reached the level lowest since July 2018, 47.87%, on April 30, but now, over the past seven days, it fell even lower, to 44.24%.
These numbers indicate that the interests of many investors are now focused not on the main cryptocurrency, but on altcoins, which bring significantly higher returns.
The BTC/USD pair made unsuccessful attempts to test $60,000 again over the past week. However, each dash to the north is followed by a rollback to the south. The pair even fell to the level of $52,950 on May 05. But Ethereum, is rewriting one historical maximum after another in the wake of the growing popularity of the DeFi sector, as well as on the eve of the transition to ETH 2.0. Thus, this coin has shown an increase of more than 80% over the past three weeks. And it made its creator, 27-year-old Vitaly Buterin, the Newbie traderest billionaire in the world who made his fortune on cryptocurrency. As noted by Forbes, Buterin's fortune has grown by almost 25 times early 2020.
Litecoin keeps pace with Ethereum. We pointed out significant upside potential for this coin back at the beginning of the year. The argument was that, unlike bitcoin, which had already renewed its all-time high, Litecoin was still very far from the $371 high it reached in December 2017. And finally, the LTC/USD pair was again at this top this week, on May 07, showing an increase of 75% just in the last 10 days.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. So, the market is again dominated by buyers of shares and sellers of the dollar. As we already mentioned, the weakening of the dollar, which has become almost the main safe haven asset during the pandemic, is facilitated by the growth of inflation expectations, which exceeded 2.4% and reached a high since 2013. The huge financial injections should lead to a record growth in US GDP, which, accordingly, entails an increase in risk sentiment and investors' attraction to the stock market. S&P500 and Dow Jones indices broke their own records again. The former reached the level of 4,238, the latter - 34,732 points. The euro grew together with them, reaching the height of 1.2170.
However, too fast growth of stock indices and a weakening dollar may induce the US Federal Reserve officials to curtail fiscal stimulus programs quicker. Thus, according to Robert Kaplan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, imbalances in financial markets can lead to the fact that it would be better to raise the issues of folding QE sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the U.S. financial system could be under stress. 
As for the opinion of experts for the near future, 60% of them, together with the graphical analysis on D1, expect the correction of the EUR/USD pair to a strong support in the area of 1.2000, and in the event of its breakout, a fall another 100 points lower. The nearest support is 1.2055.
The remaining 40% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the pair's uptrend will continue. The nearest target is the February high at 1.2245, the next target is to reach the January 06 high at 1.2350.
The technical analysis readings are as follows: 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored green at the time of writing this review (Friday night May 07). The remaining 25% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Among the events of the coming week (and there are not so many of them), the publication of data on the US consumer market on Wednesday May 12 and Friday May 14 should be noted.  Data on the consumer market in Germany is also due out on May 12;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair for the coming week is exactly the opposite of the previous one. If the majority of experts voted for the rise of the pair from the central part of the 1.3670-1.4000 channel to its upper border a week ago, now 70% of analysts, along with graphical analysis, predict it will return back to its center at 1.3800. The decision of the Bank of England, which kept interest rates and the volume of the quantitative easing (QE) programme unchanged at its May 06 meeting, should contribute to this.
True, the regulator has reduced the rate of asset buybacks and is optimistic about the rate of economic recovery. But demand for the pound is being held back by the decision to hold interest rates until there are clear signs of a recovery in output and an inflation rate of 2%. The only one who voted to cut QE volumes was the chief economist of the Bank of England, Andrew Haldane. But his vote doesn't mean much as he retires in a month.
Only 30% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will be able to break out of the 10-week trading range and rise above the level of 1.4000. In this case, it will rush to the February 24 high of 1.4240, and the resistance levels on its way will be the levels of 1.4085 and 1.4180.
As for technical analysis, its readings are very similar to those for the EUR/USD pair: 100% of the trend indicators and 85% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 point north. The remaining 15% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.
Looking at the economic calendar for the coming week, I recall the movie "The King's Speech", dedicated to the British monarch George VI. It is just that it will the speech ofthe head of the Bank of England, and it will be a whole series, since Andrew Bailey will give speeches on May 11, 12, and 13. However, investors are unlikely to hear anything from him that could seriously affect their mood. Of greater interest are the UK GDP and consumer market data, which will be published on Wednesday May 12;
(https://i.imgur.com/ZZKStgc.jpg)

- USD/JPY. The indicator readings on both time frames look quite chaotic. Only the trend indicators on H4 clearly point to the south: 85% is colored red here. Graphical analysis depicts a gradual decrease in volatility and consolidation of the pair in the zone 108.35-108.50. But 70% of analysts side with the bears for the third week in a row. Supports are at levels 108.40 and 107.85, the target is 107.45. ¬
The remaining 30% side with the bulls, they expect that the pair will try again to rise above the resistance of 109.00 and gain a foothold in the zone 109.00-109.65;

- cryptocurrencies.  As mentioned in the first part of the review, many investors have shifted their attention from the main cryptocurrency to the altcoin market. The BTC/USD pair has not yet managed to break above the 50-day moving average and rise above $60,000. But is this a harbinger of a new crypto winter? 
If BTC collapses following the domino effect, other coins may follow. But so far, hopes for the growth of the main cryptocurrency are quite real. Despite the fact that the index of its dominance has decreased from 72.65% to 44.24% since the beginning of the year, its trading volumes are quite high: about $70 billion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, although has reached the level of "greed", 64 points, but is still far from being overbought.
In the medium term, the fact that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) postpones decisions on Bitcoin-ETFs may play against the main cryptocurrency. But many experts are still optimistic. Thus, renowned crypto trader and strategist Mikael van de Poppe has shared a bold prediction for the future of bitcoin. “I am quite confident that we are in a bullish cycle and it is really difficult to rely on a bear market, especially given the inflation of the US dollar,” he said.
“Given the fact that institutional money is flowing in, bitcoin is becoming more widespread. This means that there is now a large demand and a relatively small supply, which will lead to an increase in the price, continues Van de Poppe. - Will Bitcoin get to $300,000 or $500,000? I think so. If we carry out simple calculations, the peak of the BTC rate should be $500,000. Given the data on the top of the cycle, it can be assumed that the average rate will be above $250,000. And it can get to $350,000 - $450,000 within a year.” “But besides, we will have long sideways,” added the specialist cautiously.
Experts at JPMorgan believe that Ethereum may become even more efficient than Bitcoin in the future. They note that this altcoin is more resistant to external factors. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which leads to its correction straight away. With a long negative trend, BTC investors begin to withdraw assets quickly.
According to JPMorgan analysts, “Bitcoin is very narrow in its application, which is evident from a variety of factors. It is most often used as an asset for investment. All new major projects are developed on the basis of Ethereum. It has more liquidity. ETH has recently substantially increased its position in the spot market as well. Another advantage of Ethereum is its rather large and developed ecosystem,” they note.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 12, 2021, 07:17:39 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/OZUgS2v.jpg)

- SpaceX Corporation has entered into a partnership with Dogecoin developers. The launch of the new satellite will be fully paid in this cryptocurrency. The satellite itself in the form of a cube will be delivered to the Moon as part of the Falcon 9 mission in early 2022.
SpaceX Vice President Tom Ochinero said the collaboration "will demonstrate the use of cryptocurrency outside of Earth orbit and lay the foundation for interplanetary commerce." The information was also confirmed by Elon Musk, who has recently received the nickname "dogefather" for his love for this meme cryptocurrency.

- Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. Bitcoin is likely to become the main competitor to gold within a few years, although it is already, says Yusko. - I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to sink sharply in the near future. The market has many investors already who will not leave it until the last minute. "
“However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier continued. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is naturl that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."

- Scammers took advantage of the hype surrounding Elon Musk's performance on Saturday Night Live (SNL) to lure over $100,000 in cryptocurrency from users. According to the MalwareHunterTeam project team, the scammers have created more than 30 fake Tesla, SpaceX and SNL accounts. Some of them received a verification mark. To receive a "reward", the attackers asked users to send a small amount of bitcoins, Ethereum, or Dogecoin to their wallets. MalwareHunterTeam noted that this type of scam has been around for a long time, but Twitter still hasn't solved the problem.

- As for Elon Musk himself, he urged to invest in digital assets with caution. “Digital assets continue to be promising. But it is possible that the market will return to bearish sentiments at any moment. At one time, I thought that investing in cryptocurrencies was a dubious business, but everything has changed over the years,” Musk said. At the same time, the billionaire noted that Tesla bought bitcoins at the beginning of the year for the so-called "free funds", which do not affect the company's activities in any way.

- According to the BBC, the US authorities have arrested a resident of Tennessee, suspected of organizing the contract murder of his wife. According to British media reports, a customer unknown at that time told the killer the make of the car, as well as the date and time when the woman would take the pet to the veterinarian. The payment for the murder was done in bitcoins.
"The FBI headquarters provided blockchain analysis of the transaction and was able to determine that the wallets of the Coinbase crypto exchange were used for payment," the court record says. The exchange, at the request of the authorities, revealed not only the transactions history, but also the name of the owner of the wallets: it was the husband of the alleged victim. He used his home computer and personal bank accounts to buy cryptocurrency. The man was arrested and faces up to 10 years in prison. The identity of the killer has not yet been established.

- Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also continues to influence cryptocurrency quotes; he shared a photo of two goats named Max and Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. Some of the commentators called him Bitcoin MAXimalist. And economist Alex Kruger said that the photo of the goats is a great reason for another pump of the first cryptocurrency. “This is quite in the spirit of 2021. If the market was growing when Elon Musk tweeted about Bitcoin, then surely it should grow when Zuk calls the goats Max and Bitcoin, ”he said and... he was wrong. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published.

- Another interesting event concerning Zukreberg took place in the capital of Russia. The Moscow court officially declared a citizen Mark Elliot Zuckerberg bankrupt. The reason for the litigation was his debt to two Russian banks in the amount of 669 thousand rubles (about $9,000).
This news could become a worldwide sensation. But the fact is that this citizen's name was Yuri Shishlyannikov until December 2018. He was born in Ukraine, and after moving to Russia, he changed his first and last name to Mark Zuckerberg, which is quite easy to do under Russian law.

- The attackers spread an interview allegedly given by Austrian President Alexander Van der Bellen to the Kronen Zeitung. He "talks" about his investments in cryptocurrencies there and allegedly admits that he easily earns tens of thousands of euros a day.
According to the Watchlist Internet Internet fraud tracking service, under the guise of an interview with the Austrian President, scammers are promoting the Bitcoin Era, Bitcoin Prime and Crypto Revolt cryptocurrency trading platforms. To start trading, you need to deposit a minimum amount of €250. Then some consultants contact the investors, and the first profit is displayed on the accounts. This motivates people to invest more. However, neither deposits nor possible profits are paid out to users, Watchlist Internet stresses.

- Analysts of the research service Whalemap presented an analysis of the price dynamics of the main cryptocurrency. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. The largest buying volumes were recorded when the price of the coin was in the range from $54,000 to $58,000.
Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.

- PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, agrees that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776.
Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.

- Miami Mayor Francis Suarez said at the Ethereal virtual summit that he bought Bitcoin and Ethereum in early March. He made the decision after the country's Senate approved the $1.9 trillion economic bailout plan. It is noteworthy that the United States plan to adopt another aid package, due to the high level of unemployment.
According to Suarez, people will not want to store currency in USD, so cryptocurrencies will continue to grow. The official added that bitcoin has reached a level of acceptance too high to fall under a regulatory ban.
Suarez has previously said he is exploring the possibility of transferring some of Miami's city budget reserves into digital gold.

- The police detained two suspects of fraud in a Russian small town under the pretext of selling mining equipment. According to the investigation, the detainees posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of the mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto-miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it, hardly suitable for cryptocurrency mining. It should be noted that this is not the first case of selling counterfeit equipment to those who wish to make money in this way.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 17, 2021, 08:49:03 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 17 - 21, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by most experts (60%), the first half of the week benefited the dollar, strengthening it and dropping the EUR/USD pair to support 1.2050. The US inflation report, released on Wednesday May 12, pointed to an impressive rise in April and hit the stock market hard. The consumer price index climbed 0.8%, the strongest monthly gain since 2009. In annual terms, inflation rose by 4.2% versus 2.6% between March 2020 and March 2021 and showed the strongest acceleration since 2008.
Thanks to this jump, rumors about the possible curtailment of fiscal stimulus programs and an increase in the interest rate on USD began to circulate in the market again.
Risk appetite began to fall, the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices went down, and the yield on 10-year US Treasuries moved up.
However, the Fed knows how to restore order in the markets. The regulator explained that this jump in inflation and consumer prices is a temporary phenomenon and is caused in first place by a surge in prices for transport services and used cars. Therefore, the FRS does not intend to either curtail QE programs or raise the interest rate due to the growth of one specific sector of the economy.
The situation turned 180 degrees after such explanations. Trading volumes in the stock markets rose again, reaching the highest values over the past two and a half months. And the European currency won back about 100 points from the dollar, finishing at 1.2143;

- GBP/USD. 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators were pointing north last week. But only 30% of experts agreed that the pair, having broken through the upper border of the channel 1.3670-1.4000, would be able to reach the resistance of 1.4085. But it is them who turned out to be right: - the week's high was recorded on Tuesday, March 11 at 1.4165. The next day, the US inflation report pushed the pair down to the 1.4000 level, which turned from resistance to support. The fall was facilitated by profit-taking on the pound after reaching two-month highs. Then a rebound followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.4096;

- USD/JPY. The forecast for this pair turned out to be quite accurate. Demonstrating an inverse correlation with the DXY dollar index, the yen strengthened on Tuesday May 11, as predicted by 70% of experts, reaching support at 108.35. Then the pair met the expectations of the remaining 30% of analysts and, breaking through the resistance of 109.00, reached a high at 109.78. The last chord of the week sounded at 109.35.

- cryptocurrencies. It seems that the crypto market influencers are only busy trying to destroy it in recent days.
Crypto billionaire Vitalik Buterin knocked Dogecoin clone quotes by an average of 50%. The creators of the meme currencies Shiba Inu, Akita Inu and Dogelon, currying favor with such an authority as Buterin, sent him their coins as a gift, hoping that he would not spend them and give them flattering reviews. However, the creator of Ethereum sent 50 trillion Shiba Inu ($1.2 billion at the time of the transaction) to a fund to help India fight COVID, and donated half of Akita Inu tokens ($ 431 million) on the Gitcoin platform. As a result, all these meme currencies lost about half of their value in just one day.
Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg also distinguished himself, who shared a photo of two goats, calling one of them Bitcoin. Social media users saw a secret message in this. And some even took offense, deciding that Zuckerberg compared the holders of the main cryptocurrency with these animals. What the billionaire really meant remains a mystery. The price of bitcoin dropped by about $5,000 after the post was published.
However, it was Elon Musk who delivered the biggest blow to the market with his tweet. He expressed concern about "the growing consumption of fossil fuels for mining and transactions on the bitcoin network" on Wednesday and announced that Tesla would no longer accept the cryptocurrency as payment for its cars. The market reacted to this statement with a crushing collapse. In just a few hours, the BTC/USD pair fell by almost 20%, reaching a strong medium-term support level in the $46,600-47,000 zone. Perhaps it would have broken through it too, but the panic was somewhat lowered by Musk's words that Tesla would not sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens.
Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin and was ready to accept this cryptocurrency as a means of payment. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew more than twice from that moment until May 12: from $1.180 trillion to $2.556 trillion. And now it lost about $437 billion on May 12 and 13. True, the situation began to gradually stabilize by Friday evening, the market grew by $210 billion, and the BTC/USD pair rose to $50,000.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 64 to 24 points over the week and is now in the “Fear” zone. According to the index developers, one can think about opening long positions at such a moment. But if you do this, then you should be extremely careful, since, succumbing to panic, investors may continue to sell BTC.
We cited the opinion of JPMorgan Bank experts in our last review that “bitcoin reacts to almost every major fluctuation in the market, which is why its correction begins immediately. Ethereum, on the other hand, has better liquidity and greater resilience to external factors."
The past week has once again confirmed the correctness of this analysis. If bitcoin quotes were at the level of mid-February 2021 on Friday, May 14, Ethereum increased by almost 130% over the same period, having risen from $1,750 to $4,000.
The capitalization of the main altcoin continues to grow as well. The bitcoin dominance index has dropped from 72.65% to 40.55% since the beginning of the year. The share of Ethereum, on the contrary, has increased from 10.79% to 20.52% (maximum of the week). And if the trend continues, then these two cryptocurrencies can take equal positions in the market by the end of July.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Markets have come to their senses again, realizing that there is still a long way to the start of phasing out the US fiscal stimulus programs. Fed officials are constantly reiterating that it will take several more months of steady growth in employment and inflation before discussing a specific time frame for monetary tightening.
Analysts at BofA Merrill Lynch believe that the behavior of the EUR/USD pair is primarily influenced by what is happening in the United States. However, Europe should not be written off. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%.
The loyalty of the US Federal Reserve to a soft monetary policy and calmness about the rise in inflation are putting serious pressure on the dollar. Investors will continue to look for how to protect their capital from depreciation due to inflation. The situation in the US stock markets is on the side of the bulls, which will contribute to the weakening of the American currency. However, at the same time we should not forget about the yield on US Treasury bonds, the growth of which, on the contrary, may provide serious support to the dollar.
If we talk about technical analysis, then here the complete advantage is on the side of the green. The growth of the EUR/USD pair is indicated by 70% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on H4, and, respectively, 85% and 100% on D1.
But the forecasts of experts do not look so unambiguous. 50% of them believe that the pair will hold out for some time in the side channel 1.1985-1.2180. At the same time, graphical analysis on both timeframes indicates that it will first fall to the lower bound of the trading range.
30% of analysts vote for the fact that this support will be broken, and the pair will drop another 100 points lower. The remaining 20% indicate to the north, to the zone 1.2250-1.2270.
As for the events of the coming week, it is worth noting the data on the GDP of the Eurozone for the first quarter of 2021, which will become known on Tuesday, May 18, as well as the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on May 18 and 20. A portion of business activity data in Germany and the Eurozone which will be published on Friday 21 May is also of interest;

- GBP/USD. The oscillator readings on H4 look quite chaotic, but 85% of them point up onD1 as in the case of EUR/USD. The readings of trend indicators are also similar to the previous pair: 90% of trend indicators look north onH4 and 100% on D1.
Most experts expect the pair to start the week in the range of 1.4100-1.4200. However, according to 65% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on D1, it will be expected to return to support 1.4000, and in case of its breakdown, it will move to the central zone of the channel 1.3670-1.4000.
As for graphical analysis, it draws the movement in the lateral channel of 1.4000-1.4165 on H4, followed by a breakthrough to the high of February 24 of 1.4240.
As for the macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, one can single out the publication of data on the labor market on May 18, the consumer market on May 19 and business activity in the services sector of this country on Friday May 20;

- USD/JPY. Most experts (65%) have sided with the bears for the fourth week in a row. Support is at the levels 109.00, 108.35, the target is 107.50. The remaining 35% of analysts expect that the pair will once again try to test the resistance of 111.00. The last time it managed to overcome it more than a year ago, in March 2020.
As for the oscillators on H4, 50% are painted green, 50% are neutral gray. On D1, the neutral position is taken by half as much, 25%. Among the trend indicators, 70% look to the north on H4, and 90% on D1. The graphical analysis readings outline a trading range of 108.85-110.35;

- cryptocurrencies. Let's start with technical analysis. The BTC/USD pair has now broken through the 50-day SMA and found a new pivot in the $50,000 zone, where the strong horizontal support and 100-day SMA intersect. However, according to a number of experts, this is where the formation of the right shoulder of the "head and shoulders" pattern is completed, which increases the chances of a breakdown downward, down to the level of $40,000. The next target for the bears is the lows of January 2021 in the $30,000 zone.
The position of Vitalik Buterin and Elon Musk, who seemed to have conspired to support Dogecoin at the peak of the main cryptocurrency, does not add optimism to BTC investors either. The first one clears a place for Dogecoin by dropping the quotes of its competing clones by 50%. The second - refuses to sell Tesla cars for bitcoin, but Musk's SpaceX enters into a partnership with Dogecoin developers by paying for the launch of a new satellite to the moon in this meme currency. Elon Musk even gets the nickname "dogefather."
However, it is clearly premature to say that all the authorities have turned their backs on the main cryptocurrency.
Thus, PlanB, the author of the famous S2FX prediction model for the price of bitcoin, thinks that the coin will continue to rise in price. That is why he replenished his crypto wallet by purchasing BTC on May 8 at the rate of $58,776. Among the arguments in favor of further growth in the price of bitcoin is the growth of reserves of crypto exchanges in dollar stablecoins, which has now reached an absolute maximum of $11.5 billion. Interest in bitcoin is also observed on the part of miners: the hash rate for this cryptocurrency has once again turned out to be at levels that are close to absolute highs.
Analysts of the Whalemap research service presented an analysis of the BTC price dynamics. According to their findings, large investors, including classic companies from the world of finance, continue to buy bitcoins actively. Basing on that, Whalemap believes that the $52,000 price level represents the point below which it will be difficult for the cryptocurrency to leave for a long time. Moreover, as analysts predict, bitcoin can gain a foothold above $60,000 in the foreseeable future.
As for long-term forecasts, Morgan Creek Capital CEO Mark Yusko believes that bitcoin could reach the value of $250,000 within five years. According to the expert, the rapid adoption of the main cryptocurrency will resemble the popularization of Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Google. Also, the growth in the value of bitcoin may be affected by the situation in the fiat market, which is now going through hard times.
“At one time, many large companies increased their capitalization to a trillion dollars in 10-20 years. The main cryptocurrency managed to do this much faster. I do not think that cryptocurrencies will start to drawdown sharply in the near future,” Yusko believes. “The market already has a lot of investors who will not leave it until the last.”
At the same time, the head of Morgan Creek Capital did not fail to comment on the dogefather favorite. “However, not all assets are useful and promising,” the financier stated. - Dogecoin, for example, is a joke and a marketing thing for me. It is natural that it is rapidly becoming more expensive after references from Elon Musk. I think this can happen with any coin, even if it has no real value."
The name of the head of Tesla and SpaceX has already sounded many times in the current review - after all, it was his concern about the environment with mining bitcoin that collapsed the market. And it is not at all excluded that after some time bitcoin will split into two coins - "green" BTC, mined from renewable energy sources, and "red", the mining of which strikes a blow on the ecosystem of the planet. But, as it turned out, scammers have already invented a "mining farm" that does not consume any electricity at all.
Police detained two suspects in a Russian small town, who posted an advertisement on the Internet about the sale of a mining farm. One of the villagers responded and transferred 1,000 rubles (about $13) as an advance. After the attackers sent a photo of the package, the future crypto miner sent them the remaining amount. However, taking the parcel from the post office, he found two plastic water bottles and an old fire extinguisher in it. Of course, the chances of getting at least something on such a "farm" are below zero. But if suddenly someone succeeds, it will be the most environmentally friendly cryptocurrency in the world).
(https://i.imgur.com/q996nFo.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 19, 2021, 05:08:26 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/y1Kfmhd.jpg)

- The crypto market has already experienced three serious falls the in first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk. Tesla first announced that it would no longer sell its electric cars for Bitcoin. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining,” it said in a press release. - The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we're not going to stand aside from addressing environmental issues. '
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now..

- The third major drop in the crypto market was experienced since Tuesday, May 18, to Wednesday, May 19. This time it comes after Chinese financial organizations were banned from providing services related to digital assets.
According to Reuters, a statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value," their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law.

- Crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Currency Exchanging Swap Elon Tweet (Currency Exchanging SwapELON) token. By doing this, they want to demonstrate contempt for Elon Musk's tweets, which affect the digital asset market. The token is based on the Binance Smart Chain. According to the statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. More than 9,000 addresses became Currency Exchanging SwapELON holders.
The coin has already risen by 2000% and the token is trading at the level of $0.005260 at the time of writing.

¬- LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Another expert and veteran trading veteran, Peter Brandt, said earlier this month that bitcoin would have to "come back to Jesus." And now he confirmed that the current fall fits the description of the moment he had indicated.

- Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. The trader noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then. The analyst is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage, and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year:
“You should look more broadly. The current Bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."

- Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, while long-term investors continued to increase their investments.
For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. To date, MicroStrategy has 92,079 BTC at its disposal, acquired for a total of $2.251 billion at an average price of about $ 24,450 per coin.
Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.

- The oil and petroleum pool, supported by the U.S. military, threatens the environment more than bitcoin mining. This was announced by Alex Gladstein, Strategy Director of the Human Rights Foundation, and James McGinnis, co-founder of David Energy. According to Forbes, the US military used up to 1 million barrels of oil daily in 2017. If the Ministry of Defence were a country, this level of consumption would make it the 55th most carbon dioxide-emitted country in the world.

- The US Federal Trade Commission (FTC) has recorded a tenfold increase in cryptocurrency investment fraud. According to the report, the agency received 6,792 allegations of attackers from October 2020 to March 2021. The total amount of damage from their actions exceeded $80 million. The FTC says this figure was 10 times lower a year earlier: 570 appeals with losses totaling $7.5 million.
Scam organizers usually target investors aged between 20 and 49. Most scams operate on a pyramid basis. The most popular methods of finding victims are advertising "investment advice from experienced traders" and "distribution of cryptocurrency on behalf of celebrities." The attackers earned over $2 million on the name of Elon Musk alone.

- Bitcoin is not as popular among criminal groups as it might seem. This is the conclusion reached by blockchain analysts at CipherTrace in their monthly report, where they found that only 1% of all transactions on the bitcoin network are associated with illegal activities. According to them, in 2020, only 1.2% of transactions on the BTC blockchain were made between crypto exchanges and high-risk organizations.
In their sample, CipherTrace classify the following as a high-risk organization: sites with blockchain games, mixers, darknet, hype scam campaigns, ransomware; malware, high-risk exchanges.
Moreover, analysts have found out the volume of transactions used for money laundering. They concluded that the share of such transactions fell from more than 1% to 0.11% in 2020.

- Founded in 1932, American furniture chain Ethan Allen's is listed on the New York Stock Exchange. Since the beginning of 2021, the company's shares have risen by 50% due to the inattention of some investors who confuse securities under the ticker ETH with the second most capitalized cryptocurrency.
According to The Wall Street Journal, economic recovery was not the only reason for the growth. Some investors hear the call “Buy ETH” and buy Ethan Allen's stock instead of Ethereum. According to the publication, in the last month alone, the turnover of ETH shares increased by 56%.

- The founder of the cryptobank Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in the price of Ethereum to $5000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 24, 2021, 08:56:27 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 24 - 28, 2021

First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. "Some Committee members would consider it appropriate to start discussing the topic of curtailing monetary stimulus if the US economy is moving quickly towards the targets set by the Fed," the minutes of the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which was published on Wednesday, May 19, say. The wording is more than vague. But it was against this background that the bears tried to strengthen the dollar and drop the EUR/USD pair down. As a result, having bounced off the high of the last eight weeks at 1.2245, it dropped by 85 points - to support1.2160.
However, then the markets realized quickly that this phrase, in fact, does not mean anything in reality. And even if the US Federal Reserve starts to discuss in June the possibility of curtailing the QE program and raising interest rates, it is not worth waiting for concrete steps on these issues yet. This "enlightenment" allowed the bulls to return the pair to the 1.2240 high. But they failed to gain a foothold there.
On Friday, May 21, an increase in the yield on 10-year US government bonds from 1.61% to 1.63% and a decline in US stock indices, coupled with weak German business activity, pushed the EUR/USD pair back to support at 1.2160 once again. The last chord of the week sounded not far from there, at the level of 1.2180;

- GBP/USD. The British currency is fluctuating following the risk appetite of investors. And naturally, the dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. At the same time, the pound seeks to renew not only the annual, but also the 36-month high at 1.4241, and has almost reached this target.
Making a forecast for the past week, most experts pointed to the corridor 1.4100-1.4200. And this forecast, with a minimum tolerance, turned out to be almost perfect.
At the beginning of the week, boosted by positive statistics from the UK labor market, the pair climbed from the 1.4075 horizon to 1.4220. Then, after the rebound, trading shifted a few points to the north, to the range of 1.4100-1.4232.
On Friday, during the American session, treasuries growth and impressive data from IHS Markit on the US services sector forced the bulls to retreat again, and the pair ended the five-day period at 1.4153; 

- USD/JPY. Most experts were siding with the bears for four weeks in a row, expecting the pair to drop to support at 109.00 and then at 108.35. And their expectations were justified: breaking through the support at 109.00, the pair went further south. True, it did not reach the second goal, and the local bottom was recorded at 108.56.
The yen was supported by the decline in US bond yields and commodity prices for almost the entire week. Perhaps the pair could go down further, but the rise in oil prices and treasuries yields brought it back to the horizon of 109.00, next to which, at the level of 108.93, it completed the trading session;

- cryptocurrencies. The bullish rally that began in autumn 2020 caused many investors to have a state of euphoria. Having decided that digital assets will grow forever, they forgot that the crypto market is not just volatile, but super-volatile. And that just a small shock is enough to cause its serious fluctuations. And what if there are several such shocks, and they are strong enough? In this case, as with an earthquake, panic immediately arises, and the tsunami wave literally flushes off the market all positions opened using leverage.
The crypto market experienced three such serious earthquakes in the first two decades of May. The first two collapses were associated with Elon Musk.
Tesla first announced the end of the sale of its electric vehicles for bitcoins, explaining this with concern for the environment. “We are concerned about the use of fossil fuels for mining. The future of our planet depends on the amount of gas emissions into the atmosphere. And we are not going to stay away from solving environmental problems, ”- its press release said.
The second blow to the market was struck by a tweet from Elon Musk that, perhaps, Tesla will still sell the previously acquired bitcoin tokens. Recall that BTC quotes jumped 22% just three months ago on the news that Tesla had invested $1.5 billion in bitcoin. It may get rid of them now.
The third panic hit the crypto market after Chinese financial institutions were banned from providing services related to digital assets. A corresponding statement was issued by three financial regulators overseeing online financial transactions, the payments market and clearing.
Financial institutions in China are now unable to provide services for the storage and management of cryptocurrency, as well as release products related to digital assets. It is also forbidden to use them as a payment instrument. The three regulators said in a joint statement that virtual currencies are "not supported by real value, their prices are easy to manipulate, and trade contracts are not protected by Chinese law".
The head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, expressed solidarity with the Chinese authorities, criticizing cryptocurrencies, saying that they pose risks to financial stability, and pointing out that their stricter regulation may be required. In parallel, the US Treasury Department came up with a proposal, according to which information on cryptocurrency transfers worth more than $10,000 should necessarily be reported to the tax service.
As a reminder, bitcoin hit an all-time high at $64,600 on April 14. And now, just five weeks later, on May 19, it fell to $30,225, losing 53%. (For Ethereum, these numbers were, respectively, $4,364, $1,927 and 56%). Then the market seemed to be on the mend, and the BTC/USD pair climbed to $42.285. However, there was another reversal on Friday, May 21, and it dropped to the level of $33,550 by the evening of the same day.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a 12-month low on May 20 at just 11 points. By the very end of the working week, May 21, it also grew slightly, up to 19 points, and is now in the "Extreme Fear" zone. According to the index developers, such values indicate that the market is still in a strong panic, and that, possibly, its growth will begin after some time.
It is clear that the panic sell-off has affected not only bitcoin, but the entire crypto market as a whole. If on May 12 its total volume was $ 2.54 trillion, then after only seven days, on May 19, this figure fell to $1.43 trillion. It was at the same level on the evening of Friday 21 May.
Concluding the review of the past week, it will be useful to add a little optimism to this negativity. After all, in addition to those who lost their money, there are those who made big profits on the collapse of prices. According to the itsblockchain portal, one of the whales sold 3,000 BTC on May 9 at an average price of $58,500 and bought 3,521 BTC at an average price of $44,500 from May 15 to May 19. Thus, the profit of this investor was $18.7 million, and at the same time they increased their holdings by 521 BTC. And it is appropriate to remind here that the NordFX brokerage company offers its clients the opportunity to earn not only on the growth, but also on the fall of the market. At the same time, it is enough to have just $150 on the account to open both a long and a short position with a volume of 1 BTC. (Tthis figure is 10 times lower for 1 ETH and equals $15).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If in the spring of 2020 the determining factor was the fall of the economy under the blows of coronavirus, a year later everything turned 180 degrees. And now the main driver of the markets has become reflation, that is, the recovery of the economy due to its active stimulation.
The S&P500 and Nasdaq indices update historical highs over and over again. And investors, despite the overheating of the stock market, sell dollars over and over again in order to buy back sinking stocks and other risky assets.
Starting March 30, 2021, the DXY dollar index tends to go down, while the EUR/USD pair goes up.  And although Fed officials say that discussions on the possibility of curtailing QE may begin as early as June, this may strengthen the dollar only in the short term. The weakness of recent macro statistics is unlikely to allow the regulator to deprive the US economy of financial support. And if any concrete steps are taken, it is unlikely to happen until the end of this year.
Of course, no one questions the stable recovery of the US economy. However, this process has recently slowed down noticeably. So, perhaps, it will be Europe that will become an example of recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. The Eurozone looks much stronger today than it did a few months ago. Accelerating vaccination rates and reducing quarantine measures in many EU countries suggest an imminent recovery of its economy. The European Commission has already raised its GDP growth forecast for 2021 from 3.8% to 4.3%. And now, an attack by the hawks can be expected at the June meeting of the ECB.
The European economy is export oriented. Therefore, the Joe Biden administration can also seriously help it by lowering import tariffs imposed by the previous US President Donald Trump.
All this suggests that the bullish trend for the EUR/USD pair may continue. 70% of experts agree with this forecast, indicating this year's high of 1.2350 as a target. The nearest resistance levels are 1.2245 and 1.2300. In the longer term, we can talk about the growth of the pair to the height of 1.2550.
The remaining 30% of analysts believe that the overbought US stock market should lead to a large-scale correction, as a result of which the pair will break through the support of 1.2160, first drop to the level of 1.2050, and then reach support in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone.
Graphical analysis indicates that the EUR/USD pair will stay in the 1.2160-1.2245 trading range for some time, after which it will go south. There is some confusion among the technical indicators on H4. But their readings are more definite on D1: 85% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators are colored green.
In terms of macro statistics, Thursday, May 27 seems to be the most interesting. We will find out the volumes of orders for durable goods, as well as data on US GDP on that day;

- GBP/USD. With improved weather conditions, May is likely to have good spending and business performance in the UK. In addition, the country's government is actively lifting the remaining quarantine restrictions, planning to remove all of them on June 21. All this may lead to the fact that the bulls will still achieve their goal, and the GBP/USD pair will renew the 36-month high at 1.4241. 65% of analysts agree with this forecast, supported by 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
True, graphical analysis predicts a fall for the pound in the first ten days of June. The remaining 35% of the experts are also expecting a correction to the south. Support levels 1.4100, 1.4075 and 1.4000

- USD/JPY. Japan's low CPI (consumer price index), which was released on Thursday May 20, showed that real yields there significantly outperform yields elsewhere. And this is despite the serious weakening of the yen during the first quarter of this year.
The strong pressure on the yen as a safe haven currency is exerted by global reflation, as well as by the growth of yields on long-term government securities of other countries, especially the United States. For comparison, the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is 0.25%, while the yield on similar US bonds is 1.63%. 
On the other hand, the yen's purchasing power and the resistance of the Japanese economy to rising prices and inflation speaks in favor of the yen. Published data on the PPI showed that the actual yield on Japanese bonds in April was positive, while their US counterparts, thanks to the Fed's printing press, are sinking deeper below zero. 
Like the four previous weeks, the majority of experts (this time they are 75%) believe that the weakening of the yen has gone too far and it should continue to win back the lost positions from the dollar. Although expectations in this case are quite modest: the targets are the levels 108.55, 108.30 and 108.00. And the support at 107.50 is seen as a very distant target. The remaining 25% of experts expect the pair to return to the 110.00 zone. The nearest resistance is 109.35.
The indicators on H4 look rather mixed, there is a slight advantage (60%) for the bears on D1. Graphical analysis on both time frames indicates a sideways movement of the pair in the 108.30-110.00 channel;
(https://i.imgur.com/CkbOaDD.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. After such a collapse, as one would expect, interested influencers rushed together to calm and convince the crypto community that not everything is so scary, and the best is yet to come.
LMAX institutional platform strategist Joel Kruger considers Elon Musk's statements about high energy consumption of bitcoin as only a catalyst for a long-overdue correction. “There is too much buzz around Tesla and Elon Musk,” he writes. "The pullback is caused by this to a much lesser extent, and by technical overheating after the parabolic movement of the course to a much greater extent."
Popular cryptocurrency analyst Lark Davis believes that bitcoin traders shouldn't worry about Elon Musk's comments or bitcoin's depreciation. Davis advises taking a look at the 2017 bull rally and seeing that bitcoin can survive multiple declines. He noted that there were 4 different corrections in the range of 30-45% then.
Lark Davis is confident that the current growth is only at an early stage and believes that the rates will soar much higher by the end of this year. “You should look broader,” he advises. - The current bitcoin situation is not a cause for concern. This is a fairly common situation that happens in the cryptocurrency market. The situation is likely to become mega-bullish again after a few weeks. Everyone will start to say again that BTC is a new concept of money and stuff like that. Now is not the time to panic and sell cryptocurrency, but it is high time to buy it in panic. We have excellent buying opportunities."
Analysts at Glassnode confirm Davis' words. According to them, when many new investors panicked out of their positions during the rollback, long-term investors continued to increase their investments. For example, business analytics company MicroStrategy took advantage of the decline in bitcoin and bought an additional 229 BTC worth $10 million. The acquisition was made at an average price of $43,663. Investor Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," is planning to buy on the current fall in bitcoin.
Despite the collapse, Ark Invest fund manager Katie Wood reiterated her outlook for bitcoin. In an interview with Bloomberg, she said that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 in the future. Katie Wood believes that the fall in the price of BTC was due to too strong emotions, which, as a rule, are not related to fundamental factors. At the same time, she still sees a certain connection with the fact that the most volatile and innovative part of the stock market has undergone a significant correction.
A fly in the ointment is Katie Wood's statement that, despite a fall of more than 50%, the price of bitcoin has not yet bottomed out.
As for the main altcoin, there are enough bullish forecasts here as well. For example, the founder of cryptobank Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz predicted in an interview with New York Magazine an increase in Ethereum quotes to $5,000. This is facilitated by a combination of three factors: payment apps and stablecoins, decentralized finance, and non-fungible tokens (NFT), he said. “I'm almost 100% sure that the price will rise - it's just mathematics,” Novogratz explained.
And at the end of the review, our mini heading of crypto life hacks. This time, about how you can make money on the negative statements of eminent newsmakers.
Outraged by the mentioned tweets of Elon Musk, crypto enthusiasts have developed a new Currency Exchanging Swap Elon Tweet (Currency Exchanging SwapELON) token. According to their statement, the maximum offer will be 1 billion coins. Currency Exchanging SwapELON is based on the Binance Smart Chain and has over 9,000 wallets already. And most importantly, the coin has already risen in price by 2000% and is trading at $0.005260 at the time of writing.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 26, 2021, 05:55:33 PM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/daAXIwx.jpg)

- A representative of the international environmental organization Greenpeace told the Financial Times about the suspension of accepting donations in bitcoin due to the high energy consumption when mining cryptocurrency. “The amounts of energy required to run bitcoin are becoming more evident over time, so this policy no longer seems reasonable,” he said.
The organization began accepting bitcoin in 2014. Greenpeace then noted the environmental benefits of digital gold in the form of lower transaction processing fees compared to banks.

- Mining companies in North America will form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which aims to reduce the industry's greenhouse gas emissions. This decision was made by leading miners at a meeting with Elon Musk.
The meeting was organized by the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor. Leaders of Argo Blockchain, Blockcap, Core Scientific, Galaxy Digital, Risk aversionE Blockchain, Hut8 Mining, Marathon and Riot Blockchain participated in the conversation with the Tesla founder.
According to Musk, the companies agreed to disclose data on the use of renewable energy in their activities, as well as share their plans in this area. The billionaire added that they agreed to encourage other miners to do the same.
Against this background, according to data from the CoinGecko service, the crypto market capitalization has grown by about 14%, while bitcoin has risen in price by almost 12%, and returned to the $40,000 zone on Wednesday, May 26.

- One of the first bitcoin miners, Marshal Long, said that Musk spoke with representatives of companies that control "a very, very small network hashrate." “Don't expect any changes, that's what I'm saying,” he concluded. According to Long, if the billionaire wants to change the situation, he should negotiate with Coinmint and members of the non-profit Texas Blockchain Association, which control about 15% of the hashrate.

- The investment company Ark Invest General Director of Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.

- Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that Ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions.
“This is the main commercial feature of bitcoin. It is quite difficult to make money on trading with it if you do not catch the moment. The main coin is practically unpredictable, which is why traders often have to rely on good luck. " Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.

- More than 1000 employees of 16 Domino's Pizza restaurants in the Netherlands will be able to choose between salary in euros or in bitcoins. “We are a modern company, and we work with a large number of Newbie trader employees,” said the co-owners of the chain. "We hear them talk about bitcoin and want to offer them the opportunity to own cryptocurrency."
The announcement coincided with the 11th anniversary of the first documented commercial bitcoin transaction in which two pizzas were purchased from Papa John's. At current prices, the then paid 10,000 BTC is worth more than $380 million. Years later, this day was named Bitcoin Pizza Day.

- According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.

- Matthew McDermott, head of the digital assets department of the American bank Goldman Sachs, confirmed the growing demand for cryptocurrencies among institutional investors and asset managers. He also noted in his letter to Global Marco Research that cryptocurrency storage solutions have become safer, however inconsistent actions of regulators can have a negative impact on the development of this market.

- The Development and Reform Commission in China's Inner Mongolia region has published a list of 8 points, in which it describes measures to "combat the mining of virtual currencies" in its territory. The authorities of the region note that they have developed this plan in pursuance of the order of the State Council of China on combating financial risks arising in the process of mining and trading cryptocurrencies.
Industrial parks and data centers are ordered to reduce energy consumption, and telecommunications companies are prohibited from working with miners under the threat of license revocation. The authorities also promise to prosecute illegal miners. The same applies to money laundering attempts and illegal fundraising using cryptocurrencies. In addition, the list mentions Internet cafes that will be closed if mining on their territory is revealed.
Companies whose activities are related to cryptocurrencies mining, and their senior employees are subject to inclusion in the list of unreliable persons, and officials supporting the miners will be subject to disciplinary responsibility.
According to the University of Cambridge, the Inner Mongolia region is currently the third largest bitcoin computing power in China after Xinjiang and Sichuan. They are expected to release similar documents soon.

- According to Reuters, the largest mining companies BTC.TOP and HashCow are winding down their activities in China amid tightening legislation. HashCow, has not yet stopped the current capacity, but has refused to buy new farms.
As for BTC.TOP, this company announced a complete cessation of work in the PRC.

- The Russian authorities may partially reconsider their position on the use of digital currencies. Now bitcoin and the rest of the coins are recognized in fact as property. Such tools are prohibited to use when paying for goods and services. However, there is talk that the State Duma (Parliament) of Russia is already ready to amend the legislation. Cryptocurrency payments can be legalized if they take place under a contractual agreement between the parties.

- The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency has turned out to be more recognizable among US citizens than Ethereum. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2,000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money. Digital assets are seen as a get-rich-quick scheme by 23%. On the other hand, 19% called it a “questionable” technology. Almost half of the survey participants (44%) said they agree to receive cryptocurrency through incentive programs or cashback.


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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 29, 2021, 03:05:14 AM
Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders

Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 30, 2021, 05:19:13 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 31 - June 04, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. If you look at the chart of this pair on D1, it is safe to talk about the uptrend in the last eight weeks. But if you switch to lower timeframes, H4 or H1, it becomes clear that it has been in the "sideways" for the last two weeks, being squeezed in the range1.2125-1.2265. The last chord of the five-day period sounded in the area of the Pivot Point of this channel as well, at the level of 1.2194, without giving any guidance for the future.
The macro statistics of the past week looks diversified, and therefore hasn't managed to become a driver for the movement of the pair either to the north or to the south. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States continues to decline, but the indicator of pending sales in the real estate market is falling. Orders for capital goods (excluding defense and aviation) have risen, while orders for durable goods have fallen. And the annual data on US GDP (Q1) has remained at the same level. So investors don't know what to do.
Last spring, when the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, its policy was perfectly understandable: to pull the economy out of the crisis and support the purchasing power of the population. A year has passed, the recession is over, stock indices are mushrooming, unemployment is declining, inflation is gaining momentum. But the Fed continues to insist that the set targets have not yet been achieved and therefore it is too early to wind down the fiscal stimulus (QE) programs. So what should investors do with their spare money?
Some of these funds have gone to the long-overbought stock market, bringing the S&P500 back above 4200 and the Dow Jones above 3450. And another part, $485.3 billion, sits idle on central bank accounts at zero interest rates. And it should be noted that due to QE programs, this happens not only in the United States, but also in other countries, including Europe. As a result, a huge amount of both dollars and European and other currencies have settled in hands of not only American, but also foreign investors. And the market plunged into doubts, which is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart;

- GBP/USD.  The dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. And just like the euro, the British currency paired with the dollar has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, fluctuating within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. However, unlike the European currency, the activity of the bulls on the pound was significantly higher. This was facilitated by expectations of a faster than forecast increase in interest rates by the Bank of England.
One of the managers of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the official stipulated that this would happen only if the labor market recovers faster than expected.
Investors' optimism was added by the comment of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the latest statistics on COVID-19 does not require adjusting plans to lift quarantine restrictions on June 21. After both of these statements, the pair approached the 36-month high again, where, at 1.4188, it completed the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Only 25% of experts voted for the growth of the dollar in this pair in the past forecast. But in the battle between bulls and bears, they were strongly supported by the growth in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose from 1.57% to 1.62% on Thursday June 27. Given that the yen is a safe haven currency, such changes always put strong pressure on it, especially when you consider that the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is only 0.25%.
The yen was also pressured by fears of a delay in Japan's economic recovery. They were caused by media reports that the country's authorities plan to extend the state of emergency in Tokyo and some other regions for three weeks, until June 20. Additional support to the dollar was provided by the US budget proposed by the administration of President Joe Biden in the amount of $6 trillion. 
As a result, the USD/JPY pair broke out of the range 108.55-109.75 and, having gone up, reached the height of 110.20, updating the high of the last seven weeks. As for the week's finish, it was slightly lower: at the level of 109.83;

- cryptocurrencies. You can currently find a lot of similarities with the beginning of the crypto winter in 2014 and 2018. However, there are also many differences. Therefore, it is not worth yet to firmly assert that we are now witnessing the entry into winter 2021. Rather, the past month can be called late autumn, after which, bypassing winter, spring can start straight away.
The market is under pressure of the ongoing struggle against mining and trading in virtual currencies in China. For example, the 8 paragraphs of the document published by the Inner Mongolia Reform and Development Commission can help understand how this is happening. (According to the University of Cambridge, this region is China's third in terms of computing capacity of bitcoin).
So, Industrial parks and data centers are ordered to reduce energy consumption, and telecommunications companies are prohibited from working with miners under the threat of license revocation. The authorities also promise to prosecute illegal miners. The same applies to money laundering attempts and illegal fundraising using cryptocurrencies. In addition, the list mentions Internet cafes that will be closed if mining on their territory is revealed. Companies whose activities are related to cryptocurrencies mining, and their senior employees are subject to inclusion in the list of unreliable persons, and officials supporting the miners will be subject to disciplinary responsibility.
According to Reuters, the major mining companies BTC.TOP and HashCow are winding down their operations in China amid such tightening legislation. HashCow has not yet stopped the current capacity but has refused to buy new farms.
As for BTC.TOP, this company announced a complete cessation of work in the PRC.
On the other hand, there is good news as well. Elon Musk, because of whom the market experienced two serious falls in May, has now helped it grow again. A number of North American mining companies had a meeting with him,
which was organized by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor and decided to form the Bitcoin Mining Council, which aims to reduce the industry's greenhouse gas emissions.
One of the first bitcoin miners, Marshal Long, criticized the move, saying that Musk was talking to the wrong companies because they control "a very, very small network hashrate." According to Long, if the billionaire wants to change the situation, he should negotiate with Coinmint and members of the non-profit Texas Blockchain Association, which control about 15% of the hashrate.
However, be that as it may, but the decision to create the Bitcoin Mining Council gave its positive result: according to the CoinGecko service, the crypto market capitalization increased by about 14%, and bitcoin rose in price by almost 12% against its background. The BTC/USD pair was trading at $40.865 at the high of the week, on May 26. It did not manage to overcome the $41,000 mark and dropped to the $35,000 area by the end of Friday once again.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to its 12-month low on May 24 at just 10 points, which is in line with the “Extreme Fear” of the market. However, along with the decline in the index, the likelihood of new purchases from investors expecting a large discount is growing as well. That was what happened this time as well. Bouncing off the bottom, the quotes went up. The indicator is in the "Fear" zone at around 21 points on Friday afternoon, May 28. So, the potential for further growth of the main cryptocurrency has not yet been exhausted.
The total crypto market capitalization peaked on May 12, reaching $2.560 trillion. But then a collapse followed, and the market had lost more than 40% by the time of writing this review, on May 28, shrinking to $1.529 trillion. About 1 million leveraged transactions were liquidated during this short period.
The lowest value in May for the bitcoin dominance index was 39.22%. It is slightly higher now at 43.11%. And it is possible that growth will continue further, thanks to the sale of less stable altcoins.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank believe that the current situation resembles 2002-2007, when the USD index was going down. According to their analysts, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
But Morgan Stanley experts have the opposite opinion. They believe that current events are more like the 1980s and 1990s, when the dollar strengthened in the face of a large current account deficit. And now this deficit in relation to GDP is the highest since 2008. This is due to the fact that, due to the QE programs, imports to the United States are growing faster than exports. But the DXY dollar index bulls hope that the outpacing dynamics of the US economy compared to the European and global ones will stir up investor interest in the US currency and other assets.
50% of analysts agree with this point of view in the short term, expecting the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.1985-1.2000 zone. The nearest support is 1.2130 and 1.2060. 30% of experts vote for the continuation of the sideways trend in channel 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% support the breakdown of the upper border of this channel and the growth of the pair to this year's high 1.2350.
It should be noted that when moving from a weekly to medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of strengthening the dollar and the decline of the pair increases from 50% to 70%.
There is a complete discord among the oscillators on H4. D1 is still dominated by green. There are 50% of such oscillators, another 25% are colored red and the remaining 25% are colored neutral gray. Most trend indicators on D1 (75%) point north.
A lot of important economic information is expected in the coming week. We are expecting the publication of data on the consumer market in Germany on Monday, May 31, and there will be similar statistics for the Eurozone as a whole the next day, on Tuesday. Also, there will be information on ISM's business activity in the US manufacturing sector on June 1.
German retail sales data will be released on Wednesday June 2. The report on the level of employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the US service sector will be released on Thursday, June 3. And there will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and, traditionally, on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) at the very end of the working week, on June 4;
(https://i.imgur.com/DMwkzg1.jpg)

- GBP/USD. Some of the experts (60% of them) have considered the statement of Gertjan Vlieghe regarding the increase in interest rates quite specific and, on this basis, expect that the pound will renew its 36-month high at 1.4240 in the near future. In support of their forecast, they remind that the Bank of England improved its forecast regarding the pace of economic recovery in early May, and that the economy should return to pre-crisis levels by the end of the year.
Other analysts (40%), on the contrary, believe that everything looks rather vague, that the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and that a lot can happen during this time. In general, it's too early to rejoice. Especially since they do not sleep overseas either. Therefore, this part of the experts stakes on the dollar and expects the GBP/USD pair to fall. The nearest support levels are 1.4175, 1.4135 and 1.4100. The target is 1.4000.
Technical indicators still side with the bulls. There are 75% of those among the oscillators on D1,  95% among the trend indicators. Graphical analysis shows a downward rebound from resistance 1.4240 and a fall to support 1.4000.
As for the events of the week, two speeches of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on June 1 and 3 can be noted, during which investors will wait for new promises to raise interest rates. Also of interest is the hearing of the UK inflation report, which is scheduled for Thursday June 3;     

- USD/JPY. The technical analysis readings for this pair could be called GreenPeace. 90% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on H4, as well as 75% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1 are colored green. The bullish sentiment is also supported by 60% of the experts. The nearest resistance is at 110.00, target No. 1 is the high of the previous week at 110.20, target No. 2 is the renewal of the 21-week high at 110.95.
40% of analysts side with the bears, who expect the pair to return to the channel 108.55-109.75. In case of a breakdown of its lower border, the next target is 107.50;

- cryptocurrencies. - According to billionaire and Carlyle Group co-founder David Rubinstein, bitcoin has almost no chance of disappearing completely. Even if the asset loses most of its value, it will still be in demand in its own infrastructure. If the coin continues to rise in price, then even the central banks of the states that opposed cryptocurrencies will begin to consider it.
“New asset types are not just a fleeting craze that quickly ceases to be interesting. We are already talking about hundreds of billions of dollars. The coin, which was originally a means for digital payments, has become a full-fledged asset,” the billionaire believes.
Glassnode data, which indicate a build-up of long-term positions in bitcoin by whales, as well as an outflow of large investors from OTC markets, also confirm Rubinstein’s words. This may indicate another phase of asset accumulation after a deep drawdown, which prevented bitcoin, and after it, the entire cryptocurrency market, from going into a real free fall.
Many influencers are also filled with optimism. The investment company Ark Invest general director Katie Wood confirms her forecast once again. She is confident that, no matter what, bitcoin will still reach $500,000.
Wood says the recent correction has raised the chances of SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) approval for bitcoin funds. The point is, a product with a lower price tag is more likely to get the green light.
In addition, Katie Wood spoke about the statements by Elon Musk that caused the collapse of the crypto market. She suggested that he was pressured by shareholders such as BlackRock to drop the BTC price. However, the head of Ark Invest expects Musk to return to the crypto investor community.
The future of ethereum is seen even more rosy, according to some experts, . Professor of NYU Stern Business School Aswath Damodaran believes that ethereum is better suited for trading on exchanges than bitcoin. According to the expert, the ETH ecosystem is more flexible, which makes it easier to work with it in trades, especially in an environment of increased volatility.
Damodaran noted that many small assets on exchanges are trading better than bitcoin, as transactions with them are faster. The BTC network is much more involved, which means that transfers can take a fairly long period of time, even by the standards of fiat transactions. Therefore, bitcoin is more suitable as a global asset for investment, the specialist believes.
And some statistics at the end of the review.  The Dogecoin meme cryptocurrency turns out to be more recognizable than ethereum among US citizens, perhaps thanks to Elon Musk. This is evidenced by the results of a joint survey conducted by Harris Poll and CouponCabin.
The study involved more than 2000 American adults, most of whom (89%) had heard of cryptocurrency at least once. It turned out that 71% of respondents know about bitcoin, 29% about Dogecoin and 21% about Ethereum. The USD Coin stablecoin has the same number, 21%. About 18% of survey participants said they are familiar with Litecoin, 10% have heard about the existence of Stellar.
Digital assets as a get-rich-quick scheme are considered by 23%, and almost a third of respondents (31%) are confident that cryptocurrencies can become the future of money.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 03, 2021, 07:19:10 AM
CryptoNews

(https://i.imgur.com/3xftVVI.jpg)

- The strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou has not ruled out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency, Yahoo Finance writes. “We stated previously that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. This has probably become a significant driver of the current correction," the expert says.
In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000. He has also expressed the opinion that the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels.
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is an obstacle to institutional acceptance of the cryptocurrency markets and, in particular, bitcoin and Ethereum,” the expert explains. - The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors. It makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold. "

- Footage on the 16th film from the black-and-white film "Alien Autopsy", which allegedly depicts the corpse of an alien on the operating table, will be sold at the Rarible online auction. The starting price of the lot is 450 WETH (over $1,215,000 at the time of writing).
The 17-minute film focuses on the Roswell Incident, an alleged UFO crash near the American city of Roswell in New Mexico in July 1947. Conspiracy theorists believe that the US government then captured an alien on board the UFO.
The author of the film, a London entrepreneur Ray Santilli, stated that the film used real footage of an alien autopsy, which was allegedly provided to him by a retired military operator on terms of anonymity. However, there are also those who consider this film to be fake.
For reference: the WETH cryptocurrency is an Ethereum conversion and cannot be mined. The WETH rate is pegged to the ETH rate at a 1 to 1 ratio. 

- Paypal is going to allow its clients to withdraw cryptocurrencies to external wallets. “The stored coins cannot be transferred to other users or withdrawn from Paypal accounts at the moment, but we are working to ensure that the corresponding option appears. The demand for cryptocurrency transactions has shown that the industry has a huge number of adherents who are ready to settle in digital assets or just buy them. Because of this, the appropriate option has become a necessity,” Paypal representatives say.

- The creator of the Cardano cryptocurrency and former Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has named central banks slow, inefficient and thoroughly corrupt. In his opinion, traditional finance is a "frustration industry" and cryptocurrencies are the "antidote" to "this broken financial network."
The specialist emphasized that the growth of the world's population made the markets large and unmanageable, and innovations too difficult to implement. In his opinion, it is only cryptocurrencies that can cope with these problems.

- Max Kaiser, aTV presenter and founder of Heisenberg Capital, expects the bitcoin price to rise 500% in the second half of 2021 to reach $220,000. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said. In his opinion, the policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and the inflation of the US dollar stimulate the strengthening of the first cryptocurrency.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.

- While searching for a marijuana farm, police in the West Midlands County in Western England, discovered another farm, for mining cryptocurrencies, which had stolen electricity "worth thousands of pounds."
With the help of a drone, law enforcement officers noticed increased thermal activity near the local industrial zone. The police also found out that the territory is regularly visited by "suspicious persons". Assuming they had found a marijuana plantation, they received a search warrant, but instead of drugs, they found about a hundred computers. “This is not at all what we expected,” Police Sergeant Jennifer Griffin admitted.

- The founder of the Binance exchange, Changpeng Zhao, believes that no amount of regulatory action can destroy bitcoin and the blockchain. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people," he said.
According to Zhao, the fight against cryptocurrencies is reminiscent of the situation when the trading giant Amazon went online, and many were reluctant to embrace its business model. Cryptocurrencies were not created to "kill" traditional finance and government currencies. This is just a new tool for expanding financial freedom around the world. Therefore, it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them.
This statement, according to a number of observers, is due to the fact that regulators began to pay increased attention to Binance.

- Despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. Analysts of the American company Fundstrat have come to this conclusion, having studied the chart of the first cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern may indicate a further recovery in quotes.
Earlier, Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee said that the rate of the first cryptocurrency could exceed $100,000 this year, and of Ethereum - $10,000.

- The team of analytical company Glassnode has noted that the number of Ethereum wallets containing 0.01 ETH or more reached a record level of 15.71 million addresses. Such a large number is indicative of two things. First, the Ethereum ecosystem is growing and more users are joining the network to operate on various DeFi platforms or using ETH to pay in transactions with ERC-20 tokens. Second, it could mean that more retail investors are hoarding Ethereum on a long-term basis. They have blocked more than $12 billion tokens in the Ethereum 2.0 deposit contract so far.
Experts note that, despite the current price correction, the share of Ethereum in the total crypto market capitalization continues to increase, confidently moving towards 18%.

- A well-known cryptanalyst known as PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, told his 517,300 subscribers that he considers his investment in BTC as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at between $30,000 and $ 35,000, which they bought in April at between $55,000 and $60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. The good news is that this 1 million bitcoin is in strong hands right now."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 07, 2021, 12:22:05 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 07 - 11, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. When giving their forecast for the previous week, 50% of analysts expected the dollar to strengthen and the EUR/USD pair to fall to the 1.2000 area, 30% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend in the channel, 1.2125-1.2265, and another 20% supported the breakdown of the upper boundary of this channel.
The pair did go up at the beginning of the week, and it almost came close to the upper border of the channel on Tuesday June 01, reaching the height of 1.2255. The bulls got strength by the positive data on the Eurozone consumer market. However, this was not enough to continue the momentum, and the ISM PMI in the US manufacturing sector, which also turned out to be "green", turned the pair down. The dollar strengthened even more on Thursday June 03 after the release of strong statistics on the US labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits updated the post-pandemic low for the fifth time in a row, falling to 385 thousand. And the employment rate in the private sector from ADP increased by 978 thousand, which is the highest level in almost a year. As a result, the DXY dollar index jumped 0.66%, adding 60 points and returning to the levels of the middle of last month, while the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the lower border of the channel, dropped to 1.2103.
The market froze in anticipation of data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP), which is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month. But it was this data that disappointed those who were expecting further strengthening of the dollar: the figure was 599K instead of the expected 650K. As a result, the pair returned to the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 almost immediately and completed the five-day period at 1.2165;

-GBP/USD. A manager of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. This statement made the bulls hope that the pound will soon renew its 36-month high at 1.4240. But the bears decided that it was too early to rejoice, the first half of 2022 is still very far away, and a lot can happen during this time. And then, strong data on the US labor market came out on June 03, and disappointing data on June 04.
In general, just like EUR/USD, the GBP/USD pair swayed on the waves of multidirectional news and finished within the three-week sideways corridor 1.4075-1.4220, placing the final chord in the 1.4165 zone;

- USD/JPY. We called the technical analysis readings for this pair Greenpeace In the previous forecast - green dominated there so powerfully. 60% of the experts supported the bullish sentiment then and made no mistake. Along with the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of US Treasuries, the pair renewed the high of the last two months at 110.20 by Thursday June 03 and climbed to a high of 110.32. But then, due to the NFP data, it came under strong bearish pressure and ended the week trading session at 109.50;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin skyrocketed to its highest point of $64,595 per BTC On April 14.  On that day, June futures showed an even higher price, $66,450. And then came May. Thanks to the efforts of Elon Musk and Chinese regulators, bitcoin has lost half of its value, and spent the last two and a half weeks on consolidation in the area of $36,000-37,000.
Usually, such a consolidation is followed by an impressive leap forward. But in which direction: to the north or to the south? Everything that is happening suggests that it makes no sense to make forecasts based on technical analysis here. Even guessing by stars or coffee grounds can lead to more accurate results. The market is ruled by COVID-19, regulators and influencers.
Modern corporate culture, among other things, involves following environmental trends. This is exactly what one of the main influencers, the aforementioned Elon Musk, does. He, by the way, continues to influence investors with his tweets. So last week, he burst into vague speculations about whether Tesla could permanently abandon bitcoin, and thereby put an end to the hopes of bulls to break through the $40,000 level.
It's complicated with regulators, too. We talked in detail in previous reviews about the position of Beijing, which decisively indicated cryptocurrencies to leave. And Pascal Blanc, a top manager at Amundi, one of the largest asset management companies, supported the move, saying that cryptocurrencies are "farce" and "bubbles" and that governments and regulators will eventually "stop this music."
However, the US Federal Reserve and the ECB do not particularly interfere in the game of the "crypto orchestra", do not impose bans and sanctions on market participants, but are limited to observing what is happening. Their calmness serves as an example for other, less significant regulators, who also believe that the there is no sufficient accumulated experience yet to make sudden movements. For example, Norwegian Finance Minister Jan Thor Sanner said that people should have a choice of whether to invest their funds in bitcoins or other assets. Of course, provided that this process is properly regulated.
Changpeng Zhao, the founder of the Binance exchange, agrees with the Norwegian minister. He thinks it is much more effective to work out a clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, rather than trying to "erase" them. No amount of regulatory action will be able to destroy bitcoin and blockchain, Changpeng Zhao said. "You can't destroy bitcoin anyway, because it's in the heads of 500 million people,".
Indeed, the crypto market has become more global, not only small traders and investors are involved in it now, but the world's largest banks, investment funds and payment systems. And bitcoin itself was created in order to bypass various prohibitions and barriers. So, for example, Chinese traders and miners can transfer their activity to another jurisdiction. And it remains to be seen whether China itself will benefit from this.
In general, we will wait and see. In the meantime, as already mentioned, the main cryptocurrency is consolidating in the $36,000-37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index calmed down as well, rising by only 6 points in a week, from 21 to 27. But the Dominance Index went down smoothly again, dropping from 43.11% to 41.7% of the total crypto market capitalization, which was $1.663 trillion as of the evening of June 04.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The EUR/USD pair has been holding in the side channel 1.2125-1.2265 For the third week in a row and attempts to break it to either side do not succeed. Therefore, if we sum up the readings of technical indicators, both trend ones and oscillators, we get a neutral gray color.
As for macroeconomic factors, the data indicate a continuing recovery in the US labor market. And the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of this country (NFP) in May, although less than expected, is still twice higher than in April.
60% of experts believe that strong data on the labor market may persuade the Fed to reduce earlier bond buybacks and curtail QE programs. And this will lead to an increase in the yield of long-term Treasury bonds and strengthen the position of the USD. Warm summer weather, a large number of people vaccinated against COID-19, as well as the lifting of quarantine restrictions are cited as additional arguments.
However, Europe is not standing still either, as the remaining 40% of analysts say, so the strengthening of the dollar - if it happens, of course - may be temporary. According to these experts, the current improvement in the situation on the US labor market fits well into the Fed's plan and is not at all a reason for tightening economic policy and raising interest rates. Without this, investors will start looking for more attractive international assets over time, and the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair will gain new strength.
The nearest target of the bears is the zone 1.1985-1.2000, the support levels on the way to it are 1.2135, 1.2100 and 1.2060. The bulls are still aiming to break the upper border of the 1.2265 channel and the pair to rise to this year's high of 1.2350.
As for the events of the coming week, the following should be noted: the release of data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday June 08, and the decision of the European Central Bank on the interest rate (forecast - unchanged, at 0%) the next day, June 10, as well as the comments of the ECB on monetary policy. Also, the leaders of the G7 countries will meet on Friday 11 June and Saturday 12 June. The event, of course, is important, however, is not worth waiting for an instant reaction to it;   

- GBP/USD. The three-week sideways trend also affected the forecast of experts on the British currency: 35% of them vote for the pair's movement to the north, 35% look to the south, and 30% point to the east. However, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening grows to 55%. 
Graphical analysis draws the following picture until the end of June: first, the pair declines to support 1.4000, then a local low follows in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone and the pair returns to the 1.4200-1.4220 zone. Oscillators give multidirectional signals, while trend indicators are mostly colored green. These are 85% on H4, 95% on D1;

- USD/JPY. Technical indicators give chaotic readings for this pair. Only in trend indicators on D1 do greens still have a clear 75% advantage.
Graphical analysis forecasts are also controversial. It expects first a decline to the level of 109.00, and then a fall to the May lows in the region of 108.35 on H4. On D1, the forecast is the opposite: renewal of the March 31 high, 110.95. Resistances along the way are 109.70, 110.00 and 110.30.
The green summer season continues among analysts. The overwhelming majority (75%) expect the pair to grow, the remaining 25% look down.
Perhaps the yen's positions will be supported by the GDP data for the first quarter of 2021, which will be published by the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers on Tuesday, June 08. According to forecasts, the fall in GDP may slow down from minus 1.3% to minus 1.2%, which will indicate the possibility of the country's economy coming out of the recession;

- cryptocurrencies. Let us start with a pessimistic view of the future. According to Yahoo Finance, the strategist of the JPMorgan financial holding Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou did not rule out a further decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. We stated previously, he says, that the failure of bitcoin to break the $60,000 barrier will automatically lead to bearish momentum and further exits. According to the expert, the market crash in May has greatly weakened institutional demand, which is why the price of BTC cannot recover to its former levels. In the medium-term perspective, Panigirtzoglou is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.
“There is no doubt that the recent boom-and-bust dynamics is a barrier to institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies,” explains the JPMorgan strategist. "The rise in volatility, especially in relation to gold, presents a barrier for large investors, and makes digital gold less attractive than traditional gold."
Unlike Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, TV host and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Kaiser, is optimistic and expects the bitcoin price to hit $220,000 in the second half of 2021. "This is an aggressive price target, which is explained by the serious problems of the US dollar," the TV host said.
Kaiser also stressed that the price of bitcoin is not as important as the hash rate and other fundamental metrics of the network. According to him, the price only reflects the state of the dollar: when the dollar weakens, the rate of the first cryptocurrency rises, and vice versa. “I don't look at the price, I watch the hash rate. And this indicator has been in a very predictable and stable bull market for the last 10 years,” he explains.
The growth of the BTC/USD pair is also predicted by analysts of the American company Fundstrat. They came to this conclusion after studying the patterns on the chart of the first cryptocurrency rate. According to them, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future. At the same time, it should be recalled that the co-founder of Fundstrat Tom Lee said earlier that the BTC rate could exceed the level of $100,000 this year, and the ethereum rate - $10,000.
But the cryptanalyst PlanB, known for applying the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model to bitcoin, turns out to be a fatalist. He informed his 517,300 followers that he considers his BTC investment as a call option. "I will either bring it to zero or to $1 million," - he defined his position, noting that the upside potential of bitcoin exceeds the risks of a move in the opposite direction.
PlanB did not ignore the sale of bitcoins last month. “So, what happened in May? Weak hands sold about 1 million BTC at $30,000-35,000, which they bought in April at $ 55,000-60,000, and suffered a staggering loss of tens of billions of dollars. Good news: these 1 million bitcoins are now in strong hands,” PlanB summed up their assessment of the situation.
(https://i.imgur.com/lZ1iuoA.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 08, 2021, 07:55:59 AM
May Results: NordFX Trader Earns Over $50,000 on Bitcoin Collapse

(https://i.imgur.com/0XkwicG.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in May 2021. The total income of the three most efficient of them exceeded 175 thousand USD.

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from China, account No.1546xxx, whose profit amounted to USD 81,648. This solid result was achieved on transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and euro (EUR/USD).

The second step of the podium with a result of 53,207 USD was taken by a representative of Vietnam, account No.1416xxx, who showed how to make money during market crashes. Their profit was mainly obtained from transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD), the quotes of which fell by about 40% over the month.

The third place is a trader from Indonesia, account No.1506xxx, who earned 41,799 USD in May on gold transactions (XAU/USD).       

The passive investment services:
- in CopyTrading, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal -The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 45,000 USD in it.
- in the PAMM service, the same trader, KennyFXPRO, also shows a good result, which may be interesting for investors who prefer moderate earnings with moderate risks. This manager has seen a 24% capital gain since the end of January with a maximum drawdown of 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission of the month amounting to 6,568 USD was credited to a partner from India, account 1527xxx;
- the second place is a partner from China, account No. 1522xxx, who received 4,146 USD;
- and another Indian partner closes the top three, account No.1229xxx, with earnings of 3.975 USD.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: usz on June 08, 2021, 08:09:30 AM
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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 09, 2021, 02:48:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/W2U9dsZ.jpg)

- Tesla and SpaceX owner Elon Musk received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It says that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, their dreams collapsed due to Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention.
The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".

- Goldman Sachs bank experts have downgraded the "rating" of bitcoin from "gold" to "copper". According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.

- The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars. "

- The MIT students who participated in the bitcoin research spent the cryptocurrency they had been given on textbooks and food. As Bloomberg calculated, they missed ... 13,000% of their profits.
In 2014, Bitcoin Core developer Jeremy Rubin and Nascent co-founder Dan Elitzer, while students at the university, launched the MIT Bitcoin Project. Each project participant received $100 in the first cryptocurrency (0.3 BTC at the exchange rate at that time) in order to create an ecosystem of digital currencies on campus.
More than 3,100 students joined the study. Every tenth student got rid of cryptocurrency in the first two weeks, and by mid-2017, every fourth student had converted it to fiat and used it for purchases and other expenses. The participants in the experiment spent digital gold mainly in the campus bookstore. They also bought beer and ordered food.
The rest kept the coins in their wallets, expecting further growth in their value. One of the project participants said that she wanted to spend bitcoins on a T-shirt that cost $35, but abandoned her idea, and did the right thing: the price of these coins exceeds $4,000 now.

- Billionaire Mark Lasry, founder of Avenue Capital Management, said bitcoin's explosive growth in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. He also expressed regret that he had not invested enough in the first cryptocurrency.
Commenting on his previous forecast regarding the rise in the price of the coin to $40,000, the investor noted that the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere. For this reason, I became interested in bitcoin. I thought that with the arrival of institutional investors, the price would start to rise,” he added.
At the same time, Lasry stressed that any movement of digital gold can be explained: “To be honest, I do not know where bitcoin is going. I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."

- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028. Accredited investors will become buyers of securities. The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth over $3.37 billion so far.

- Against the background of the market correction, bitcoin whales have increased their positions, and large Ethereum wallets continue to hold assets. Analysts of Santiment came to such conclusions.
According to the company, the number of bitcoin addresses with balances from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC has been growing steadily for two and a half weeks. “It seems that whales are buying confidently on the fall,” the experts concluded.
As for the addresses holding 1,000-100,000 ETH, their number practically does not change during the period when the asset fluctuates in the range of $2,000- $2,500. “This group of investors is still holding on to the huge number of tokens that they have been accumulating at a rapid pace since last October,” the experts note.
The NVT indicator (a tool for identifying bubbles in the cryptocurrency market) indicates the continued bearish sentiment for the first cryptocurrency. The NVT confirms investor bearish sentiment for Ethereum as well, for the first time since April 2020.

- The American company Progressive Care began accepting bitcoin as payment for rapid tests for COVID-19. The service is available in PharmcoRx pharmacies, and one can pay for tests through a QR code.
The company stressed that they believe in the future of the blockchain and want to provide an opportunity for testing for coronavirus "to those who have an alternative view of payment systems."

- The Kalashnikov Concern, which produces the well-known AK-47 machine, would like to abandon the international payment system SWIFT and switch to using digital currencies. Such an unexpected statement was made by a rock singer, former Deputy Minister of Transport of Russia, and now the owner of the concern, Alan Lushnikov. “We really need it,” he said at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF)
According to him, this alternative system is not tied to SWIFT and is not controlled by banks. For this reason, the company is less interested in central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 13, 2021, 02:41:25 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 14 - 18, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The key day last week was Thursday, June 10. There were two important events on the day: the European Central Bank meeting and the release of US consumer market data. Now let's talk about everything in order.
The ECB raised its forecasts for Eurozone GDP from 4.0% to 4.6% for 2021 and from 4.1% to 4.7% for 2022. Inflation is expected to rise by 1.9% this year and 1.5% next year (the previous forecast was 1.5% and 1.2% respectively). At the same time, the pace of economic recovery has not particularly impressed Ms. Lagarde, especially as it is lagging seriously behind the US. The ECB chief also considers the jump in inflation a temporary phenomenon. While prices may continue to rise in 2021 Q3 and Q4, they should go down as the “temporary factors disappear.” So, the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone, she believes, will remain below target “throughout the forecast horizon.”
As a result, the result of the ECB meeting was... no result. Despite the debate, the Bank's Governing Board has not made any decisions regarding the winding down of QE, leaving the current stimulus measures in place. The interest rate on the euro was also unchanged, at 0%. But it was because of such passivity that Ms. Lagarde succeeded in achieving what she wanted: keeping the euro from rising.
And now about the second event on Thursday - the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). It was just that, according to the reaction of the market, it resembled the moment when the regulator announced new interest rates. The CPI figures turned out to be much higher than forecasted, showing the fastest rise in consumer prices in the United States in more than 12 years.
Such a rise in inflation could scare investors, however, exactly the opposite happened: the S&P500 index updated another high, reaching 4250 (against 4244 exactly a month ago), and the yield on 10-year Treasuries fell to a 3-month low.
As for the EUR/USD pair, this is where the bears won. Their logic was as follows: the ECB postponed the decision to roll back QE in Europe, but in the US, a jump in inflation could push the Fed to take some real steps in this direction. And some goals are likely to be identified at the next meeting of the regulator next Wednesday, June 16. This expectation of tightening monetary policy has driven the dollar higher. Additional strength for the bears was given by the growth of the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA, which was published on June 11. As a result, the dollar won back about 100 points from the euro, and the EUR/USD pair finished just below the lower border of the four-week side channel 1.2125-1.2265, at around 1.2108;

- GBP/USD. The statistics from the USA pushing the pair down was mentioned above. As for the UK's performance, it's not all that simple. Data released on Thursday June 10 supported the pound, showing a sharp rise in the Manufacturing PMI, which indicated a strengthening of industrial production and trade in the UK. However, another package of macro-statistics, published the next day, aroused caution among investors.
The center of the British economic recovery has shifted from manufacturing and the housing market to the service sector. Here, thanks to vaccinations and the easing of quarantine measures, activity has increased and even exceeded forecasts. But the figures were not so rosy in other sectors of the economy.
Construction volumes declined by 2%, while industrial production for April fell 1.3%. When compared to the same period in 2020, it added 27.5% during that time. It would seem that the growth is evident. But, according to a number of experts, there is nothing much to be happy about. If we compare the absolute values, they are 3% lower than the levels of February 2020 and 6.5% below the local peak in March 2019. And this speaks of the stagnation of the sector, which, apparently, was provoked not only by the COVID-19 pandemic, but also by Brexit.
These multidirectional statistics resulted in the GBP/USD pair failing to reach beyond the 1.4075-1.4220 side channel, along which it was drifting for the fourth week, and put the last point at 1.4115;

- USD/JPY. Having started the five-day period at 109.50, the pair completed it at 109.70. At the same time, it was below these levels almost all the time, bouncing over and over again from the support in the area of 109.18-109.30. However, thanks to strong statistics from the US, the pair managed to climb to the height of 109.85 at the end of the week. But even taking into account this spurt, the weekly fluctuation range of 45 points looks more than modest;

- cryptocurrencies. The crypto market is calm. Bitcoin has been consolidating around $36,000-37,000 for the third week in a row. An attempt by the bears on to turn quotes downward June 8 ended in failure: the lowest point they managed to reach was $31.065. Having stayed there for only a few minutes, the BTC/USD pair turned around, climbed to $38.325, and then went back to the consolidation area.
Elon Musk is back in the news of the week, which could somehow influence the market sentiment. The owner of Tesla and SpaceX received a video allegedly from the Anonymous hacker group. It states that his tweets regarding cryptocurrency ruined the lives of ordinary working people, and their dreams were shattered by Musk's public tantrums.
The man in the video, in the group's familiar Guy Fawkes mask, changed his voice and called the billionaire a Bond villain who pretends to be a visionary, but in fact is a narcissistic rich man desperately in need of attention. The video indicates that Musk abandoned bitcoin only because he feared Tesla would lose subsidies from the state. And the hackers called Musk's recent initiative to create a Council of Bitcoin Miners an attempt to take control of the industry.
The video, which has already garnered about 2 million views, ends with a challenge: “You consider yourself the smartest, but this time you will play against an equal opponent. We are Anonymous! We are legion! Wait for us".
Another newsmaker, analytical software provider MicroStrategy Inc. announced a $400 million convertible bond offering maturing in 2028.  The company will use the funds raised from the placement to buy bitcoins.
According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy currently owns 92,079 BTC worth more than $3.37 billion.. And if you study the history of its crypto assets’ replenishment, it becomes obvious that the company is moving towards averaging its position in the market. And this happens due to borrowed funds.
Averaging is considered a rather risky investment method. For those who don't know, we'll explain in a simple example. Averaging is when you buy 3 BTC: the first one for $5,000, then you buy the second one for $20,000, and the third one for $35,000. The average price of 1 coin in this case will be equal to $20,000 ($ 60,000/3). And if quotes fall below this level, you will be at a loss. This is why some experts believe MicroStrategy has embarked on a "journey on thin ice."
At the time of writing the forecast, the BTC/USD pair is in the $37,000 zone. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, as well as the coin itself, demonstrates "consolidation": it was equal to 21 points on May 28, 27 on June 04, and again 21 points on June 11, which corresponds to the average Fear indicator.
Among the 10,332 existing cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, despite its decline in its share in the total crypto market capitalization, still leads by a huge margin. Its dominance index is 44.03% at the moment. The capitalization of the entire digital currency market fell from $1.663 trillion to $1.585 trillion over the week.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. As mentioned above, the Governing Council of the ECB has not made any decision regarding the winding down of the quantitative (QE) program. But the Fed can discuss this issue at its meeting on Wednesday, June 16, and, as a result, publish a "road map". If not publish a detailed road map, then at least indicate its certain stages. And if this happens, we can expect a rapid rise in the dollar and a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the level of 1.2000. The next support is 1.1945, then the zone 1.1880-1.1900.
If the Fed gets off with general phrases that the rise in inflation and the current improvement in the US labor market are not at all a reason for tightening economic policy again, then the pair may return to the upper border of the 1.2125-1.2265 channel. The next target for the bulls is the growth of the pair to this year's high of 1.2350.
So, all the market's attention is now focused on this event. And analysts avoid any predictions until it's over. Graphical analysis is in disarray as well. Among the trend indicators, 55% are colored red on D1, and 100% on H4. The picture is slightly different among oscillators. Here, 60% of them are looking down on both time frames, 20% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 20% are signaling that the pair is oversold.
In addition to the Fed meeting and comments on June 16, other events of the week include the release of statistics on the German consumer market and on retail sales in the United States. Both numbers will be released on Tuesday June 15;

- GBP/USD. The Bank of England now faces a difficult choice of which way to go further: to support economic growth by continuing fiscal stimulus programs, or to start fighting inflation and prices that have already exceeded pre-Covid levels.
If you look at the ECB and the Fed, they have preferred the first option so far, postponing the second one for later. The renewed trend towards the stagnation of the UK manufacturing sector indicates that the Bank of England should follow the example of its colleagues.  Especially since the country's coronavirus curve has moved up sharply again, and there is increasing discussion about moving the full abolition of the quarantine restrictions scheduled for June 21.
If this happens, the pound will be under strong pressure. However, there will be June 16 before June 21, when the Fed meeting will take place - the key event of the week for almost all dollar pairs. As in the case of EUR/USD, expert opinions are now almost impossible to be brought to any common denominator. Graphical analysis also indicates the continuation of the pair's sideways movement in the coming days within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. Oscillators on both timeframes give multidirectional signals, although the red ones have a slight advantage here. The trend indicators on D1 are split evenly: 50% pointing north, 50% pointing south. And it is only among the trend indicators on H4 that there is an overwhelming majority: 85% of them are colored red.
The targets of the bears: 1.4075, 1.4000, then the low in the 1.3900-1.3925 zone. The bulls' targets: 1.4185-1.4225 and 1.4250, having reached which, they will then try to break through the resistance of 1.4300 and refresh the 2018 highs.
Among the important events of the coming week: the release of UK labour market statistics and Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey's speech on Tuesday June 15, as well as data on the country's consumer market on Wednesday June 16;

- USD/JPY. Giving a weekly forecast, the majority of experts (60%) vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. Graphical analysis and 65% of oscillators on H4, as well as 100% of trend indicators on H4 and D1 agree with them.

The remaining 40% of analysts, along with graphical analysis on D1, expect the pair to decline to support at 108.00-108.35. The next strong support is at 107.50.
When switching to the monthly forecast, the picture changes in a mirror-like manner: here it is already 60% that side with the bears. 40% remain on the side of the bulls, with only half of them believing that the pair will be able to rise above 111.00 and renew the March 31 high.
As for the events of the next week, one could note the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate and the subsequent press conference. However, the likelihood that the bank's monetary policy will undergo changes that could seriously affect market sentiment is close to zero;
(https://i.imgur.com/qVAQDwg.jpg)

- cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs experts have downgraded bitcoin's rating from gold to copper. According to them, it is still difficult to put the main coin on a par with gold, since it does not have such a powerful support as this precious metal. Commodities expert Jeff Curry explained that the volatility of the main coin is very similar in nature to the price swings of copper in the global market.
Previously, a similar point of view was voiced by JPMorgan experts. According to them, the main cryptocurrency is a cyclical commodity, and therefore cannot compete with precious metals or fiat. Investment companies are well aware of this, which is why they have portfolios that only consist of a few percent of bitcoin and other digital assets.
The opposite point of view to bankers was expressed by the CEO of the crypto exchange Gemini and bitcoin billionaire Tyler Winklevoss. He believes that bitcoin is still in its early stages of development. “Bitcoin is Gold 2.0,” Winklevoss said, “and its market cap should be over $10 trillion, just like gold. It is currently at the level of $1 trillion, that is, growth may be at least 10 times more. "
In his opinion, even a rate of about $35,000 is an excellent opportunity to enter a long-term investment. With a capitalization of $10 trillion, 1 BTC will be worth $500,000, and this may happen within the current decade, or maybe within the next 5 years.
“We will hodl to at least $500,000, and even then, we will not have to sell the asset, because it can be lent, used as collateral, etc.,” the billionaire added. And then he flew into space in his fantasies, claiming that bitcoin could be used for transactions between planets in the future: “Bitcoin is a project that continues to evolve and can achieve much more. It could become the global reserve digital currency of the world or even several planets when we get to Mars."
The forecast (or rather, its absence) by another billionaire, the founder of Avenue Capital Management Mark Lasry, seems to be much more mundane. According to him, the cryptocurrency market has already formed, and nothing threatens it, and the rapid growth of bitcoin in 2021 has exceeded his expectations. That being said, “to be honest, I don't know where bitcoin is heading,” Larsy admitted. "I can justify why it will rise to $100,000, but I can also justify why it will fall to $20,000."
And it is difficult to argue with him about this. At least in the current situation, any movement of digital gold can be justified. Suffice it to recall two authoritative predictions:
: of the American company Fundstrat analysts, according to which, despite the fall in May, the bitcoin rate may return to the $50,000 mark in the near future,
 - and of the JPMorgan financial holding strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, who is confident that the fundamentally justified value of bitcoin is in the range of $24,000- $36,000.

***
 And in conclusion, our traditional, albeit irregular, section of crypto life hacks. True, it applies not only to cryptocurrencies, but also to fiat this week. We are talking about the opportunity to top up your budget with a fairly round amount by taking part in the lottery held by the NordFX broker. There are a total of 100 prizes to be won for a total of $100,000. And the first draft will take place in two weeks, on July 1, so you may well have time to become a participant. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 16, 2021, 04:28:50 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/C1P4hhS.jpg)

- According to Coingecko, bitcoin is up 12% on the back of another tweet by Elon Musk. Tesla's owner said the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy.
The tweet was a response to criticism from Magda Wierzycka, the head of Sygnia finance company. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Musk called the words of the head of Sygnia inaccurate and recalled that the electric car manufacturer sold only 10% of its bitcoins to test the liquidity of the market.

- Venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper predicted in 2018 the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022 and called the blockchain one of the most outstanding inventions in human history. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations.
The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold. “Give it [bitcoin] about a year and a half and all retailers will use OpenNode,” the investor said. As a reminder, OpenNode is a bitcoin payment processor created by a group of enthusiasts, in the development of which Tim Draper invested $1.25 mln.

- Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. He said the occasion was reports of the arrest of a 17-year-old for using digital assets.
Local media reported in May that Tunisian law enforcement had allegedly accused the Newbie trader man of money laundering. The incident sparked outrage in the cryptocurrency community: some of its participants expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of clarity in the regulation of the industry.

- Tudor Investment hedge fund trader and founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that he would channel 5% of his capital into bitcoin. He is convinced that the first cryptocurrency contributes to the diversification of the investment portfolio through “embedded mathematics.”
The billionaire currently reserves 5% each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. It will determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent surge in consumer prices. In his view, it was of a “very significant” character.
“For me, the first cryptocurrency is just a way to look fundamentally at how I protect my wealth over time. This is a great opportunity for diversification, for preserving capital, the billionaire explained. "If they [the Fed] say, "We are on the trajectory [of a temporary increase in inflation], everything is fine," then I’ll go all-in.”

- El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele proposed a "bitcoin law" to parliament last week. Cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment, unless they are located in rural areas with no internet access. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
And now Bukele has come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine Bitcoin using volcanic energy. “Very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable energy with zero emissions. We will try to get things done quickly,” the head of state wrote on Twitter.
There are over 20 volcanoes in El Salvador, some of which are active. LaGeo is now using volcanoes to generate geothermal energy. And, for example, Genesis Mining in Iceland uses underground heat to generate electricity.

- According to the regular Millionaire Survey, 47% of wealthy millennials in the USA buy crypto assets. At the same time, 35% of them hold more than half of their investment portfolio in digital assets.
Millennials have shown greater interest in cryptocurrencies than owners of large fortunes overall. Those were only about 17%. Moreover, only every tenth of them invested more than 10% of their capital in digital assets.

- Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. Lending organizations also received the rights from the state authorities to collaborate with startups developing various services for digital assets.
It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.

- The Netherlands should immediately impose a blanket ban on mining and bitcoin operations, Pieter Hasekamp, director of the Economic Analysis Bureau at the country's Ministry of Economy, said.
The official listed a number of reasons why the authorities need to recognize the first cryptocurrency as illegal. In his view, digital gold has no intrinsic value, and the coin itself does not perform any of the three functions of money: the unit of accounting, the means of payment and the means of accumulation.
Hasekamp mentioned security issues, fraud risks and added that digital assets are used in criminal activities. At the same time, he considers the collapse of the crypto market inevitable.

- According to the New Indian Express, India's hostile stance on bitcoin is changing to a more loyal one. The authorities now intend not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. India wants to create an alternative asset class that will include digital currencies. The regulatory framework will be created by the Securities and Exchange Council in partnership with the Ministry of Finance.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 20, 2021, 10:17:46 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 21 - 25, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The US Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday June 16 was the key event of the week. No particularly significant decisions were made there: the interest rate remained unchanged at 0.25%. The Federal Reserve will also continue to print money and buy back assets in the previous volume of $120 billion. But, as expected, following the meeting, the regulator's roadmap was unveiled, as a result of which the dollar bulls got what they had been waiting for.
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and his colleagues raised the forecast for US GDP for 2021 to 7%, and also recognized the need to discuss the process of curtailing fiscal stimulus programs (QE). The Fed has no intention of turning a blind eye to accelerating inflation to the highest marks since the 1990s. However, according to Powell, the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore it is advisable to maintain soft financial conditions for now. At each subsequent meeting, the regulator will consider reducing QE volumes. And he will set out the level of employment after which incentives can be reduced, at the next meeting on July 28.
Investors also received a signal of intent to raise interest rates earlier than expected. An averaged forecast by Fed executives showed that the rate could be gradually raised to 0.5-0.6 percent by the end of 2023. At the same time, Jerome Powell noted that vaccination has a positive effect on the labor market, and we will soon see strong employment reports. Inflation may also be stronger and more stable than central bank officials had expected. And it will require a quicker response to what is happening.
Such "hawkish" forecasts of the Federal Reserve System instantly revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Investors continued to buy USD despite weak macro statistics, thinking that the indicators will improve as the US economy recovers.
One of the major currencies that suffered last week was the euro. Europe's economy has not kept pace with America's in any way. And according to Philip Laine, the ECB's chief economist, it will be too early even in September for the regulator to begin discussing the programme of winding down QE in the Eurozone.
As a result, starting from a height of 1.2125 on June 16 and flying 280 points, EUR/USD reached the local bottom at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. The finish took place at 1.1865, in the zone where the pair returned after a 10-week absence;

- GBP/USD. If the euro fell against the dollar by 280 points, the pound ceded as much as 340 to the US currency. Positive sentiment about the UK currency is melting like fog over London after the country's prime minister, Boris Johnson, delayed the full opening of the country's businesses by a month. This is due to an increase in cases of the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. And this despite the fact that about 80% of the country's adult population has already been vaccinated with one dose of the vaccine, and 30% have been vaccinated with two doses.
The pound is also under pressure from the increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit. This is particularly true of trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
Against this unjoyful backdrop, another “blow” is being struck on 16 June by the U.S. Federal Reserve management. The result is a fall of the pound to the level of 1.3790, not far from which it ends the trading session;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the past five days, the majority of experts (60%) voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair to the zone of 110.00-110.30. And, looking at the results of the week, they were right: starting at 109.70, the pair finished at 110.20.
It is clear that the statements of Jerome Powell and other executives of the US Federal Reserve could not but affect the behavior of the USD/JPY pair: it reached 110.80 at the high. In addition to the dollar's strengthening, weak macroeconomic statisticians from Japan have added pressure on the yen. Thus, the growth of orders for engineering products in April slowed down from + 3.7% to + 0.6%, against the forecast of 2.7%. Of course, the rate grew by 6.5% in annual terms, but still turned out to be lower than the expected 8%.
Despite this, amid the subsidence of the remaining major currencies, the Japanese currency has shown maximum resilience against the dollar. At the time when the euro, pound and other currencies continued their decline, it was, on the contrary, able to win back about 60% of the losses. The reason for this, according to a number of analysts, lies in the lower risk appetite of the market and increased investor appetite for safer assets;   

- cryptocurrencies. It has long been clear that news has a fairly strong impact on cryptocurrency rates. However, much more powerful fluctuations in this market are caused by large investments. There were none of those last week. On the contrary, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization even decreased slightly, from $1.585 trillion to $1.560 trillion. So there remains news, whose source is influencers and regulators.
In terms of the former, Elon Musk was once again there with his tweets. This time, the owner of Tesla said that the company will resume selling electric cars for BTC when at least half of the miners switch to renewable energy. Bitcoin is up 12% amid this tweet, according to CoinGecko.
It is worth noting that the tweet was a response to criticism from the head of the financial company Sygnia Magda Wierzycki. She said in the podcast The Money Show the Tesla founder was manipulating the price of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, the billionaire raised the price of digital gold deliberately and eliminated much of his position at highs. Sygnia's CEO emphasized that if Musk's tweets were about any public company, he would have already been targeted by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Now about the regulators, news from which comes from all over the planet. Thus, Tunisian Finance Minister Ali Kuli announced the need to change the country's legislation to “decriminalize” ownership of the first cryptocurrency. The government of India has also changed its anger to the mercy for bitcoin. Now, as in Tunisia, it intends not to ban but regulate the crypto sphere. Banks in Texas (USA) have been authorized to accept and store customers' bitcoins, as well as handle their cryptocurrency transactions. It should be noted that of all American states, Texas was one of the first, as early as 2019, to move on the path to legislate this market.
Similar events are taking place in El Salvador. The president of this country, Nayib Bukele, has proposed a "bitcoin law" for parliamentary consideration. Under the bill, cryptocurrency is recognized as legal tender and companies are required to accept BTC as payment. In addition, bitcoin trading is exempt from capital gains taxes.
Some important European officials, however, have fallen out of favor with digital assets. Thus, Peter Hasekamp, director of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the Dutch Ministry of Economy, said that a complete ban on mining and bitcoin transactions should be immediately imposed. In his opinion, digital gold has no intrinsic value, it is used in a criminal environment, and the collapse of the crypto market is inevitable.
But, judging by the emerging trend, Mr. Hasekamp will remain in the minority. Most regulators will try to take control of digital assets. As the great German chancellor Otto von Bismarck liked to repeat back in the 19th century, "If you cannot defeat the enemy, lead it."
Spurred on by the news and the bulls' desire to take revenge, the BTC/USD pair rallied earlier in the week, reaching $41,260 on Tuesday June 15. However, the sharp strengthening of the dollar after the US Federal Reserve meeting reversed the uptrend, bringing the pair back below the $36,000 level at the end of the working week.
The Bitcoin dominance index added slightly, rising from 44.03% to 45.33%. The same thing happened with Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which went up from 21 to 25 points. Note that since the BTC/USD pair went sideways at the end of May, its values have never gone beyond the 20-40-point range.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Does the EUR/USD fall mean a trend reversal? Or will everything be back to normal soon and the dollar will continue to retreat? (Recall that at the turn of 2016-17, these two currencies almost reached parity. Then 1 euro was only $1.034, and after only a year the European currency was worth $1.2565).
In the wake of the Fed's comments, some banks began to abandon their bullish forecasts for the euro. Others took a break. Still others, such as Societe Generale, expect the pair to return to 1.2000. Opinions among experts are almost equally divided: 55% of them vote for a further fall, and 45%, supported by graphical analysis on H4, support its growth. According to the latter, it is too early to talk about a trend reversal, additional confirmation is needed, and the collapse that occurred is the result of speculation on the Fed's statements, which led to panic closing of long positions.
Technical analysis readings look like this: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on H4 and D1 are colored red. But at the same time, 35% of oscillators on both time frames are already in the oversold zone, which may indicate an approaching correction to the north.
The pair ended the previous week in a strong support-resistance zone, which it has been storming from time to time since 2017. The nearest target of the bears is the low of March 31, 2021, 1.1700, the next one - April 04, 2020 low, 1.1600. Bulls will try to regain their lost positions. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to refresh the May high of 1.2265. However, it will obviously take more than one week to reach it. And here it should be noted that in the transition to the medium-term forecast, the advantage goes to the bulls, the number of which increases from 45% to 60%.
From the strategically important events of the coming week, it is worth highlighting the speeches of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde on Monday June 21 and Wednesday June 23, the meetings of the European Council on June 24-25, as well as the speech of the head of the Fed Jerome Powell in Congress on June 22. In addition, Germany's Markit business activity will be released on June 23, followed by capital and durable orders and annual US GDP data the following day;

- GBP/USD. On Thursday, June 24, a meeting of the Bank of England is due. In the run-up to this event, experts continue to analyze incoming economic data in an attempt to forecast possible moves by the regulator.
As mentioned in the first part of the review, the negative factors include the risk of labor shortages arising from Brexit, the controversy in Northern Ireland and the problems associated with the new strain of coronavirus.
Against the backdrop of generally encouraging macro statistics, retail sales in the UK have unexpectedly dropped, especially food. This makes one think that the growth of the country's GDP in May and in the II quarter of 2021. will not be as strong as predicted.
The report released last Wednesday showed that overall inflation in the country is rising, and the CPI's annual rate rose by 2.1%, surpassing the 2% target for the first time in two years.
Adding to this the positive UK labour market data released on June 15, the Bank of England can be expected to start discussing moves to wind down programmes quantitative easing (QE) in the foreseeable future. As for the regulator's specific momentary steps, it is very likely that, like its counterparts in Europe and the United States, it will not move sharply and leave the parameters of its credit - monetary policy without change. Although, again, the Bank of England's management does not rule out hawkish statements similar to those of US Federal Reserve management. And they might, just as well, push the British currency back up.
55% of analysts expect the pound to rise, supported by graphical analysis on D1. Moreover, with the transition to forecasts for July-August, their number increases to 70%. The readings of the technical indicators are very similar to their readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% on both time frames are facing south. True, there are 25% oscillators in the oversold area here, not 35%. The nearest strong support is located in the 1.3670-1.3700 zone, followed by 1.3600. Resistances - 1.3920, 1.4000, 1.4150 and 1.4250;

- USD/JPY. Making a forecast for the near future, the majority of experts (65%) vote for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. Graphical analysis on H4 is also in agreement with this forecast, however, it does not exclude that the pair will make a spurt to the north, relying on support at 109.70-109.80.
The remaining 35% of analysts, together with the graphical analysis on D1, believe that this support will not become a serious obstacle to the strengthening of the yen, and the pair USD/JPY will be able to fall to the area of 108.00-108.55;

- cryptocurrencies. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not gone out of the fear zone for almost a month. Frightened by the collapse of quotes in April-May, many, especially retail, investors and traders take profits at the slightest sign of danger, which prevents the BTC/USD pair from gaining a foothold above the psychologically important level of $40,000.
And there's also the US Fed, fueling interest in the dollar and reversing stock indices. Suffice to compare the S&P500 and BTC charts to see their correlation, which, according to a number of experts, will now only grow stronger.
In the event of an active sale of shares, most likely, bitcoin will not feel good either, which is an even more risky asset for institutional investors. (Not to mention altcoins).
Yes, hedge funds understand not only the risks, but also the benefits of investing in digital assets. And, according to the Financial Times, they intend to "substantially" increase their shares in cryptocurrencies by 2026. But, first of all, 2026 will not come soon. And secondly, this "substantially" is not so "substantial". According to a survey of 100 hedge funds conducted by Intertrust, on average, they intend to allocate up to 7.2% of their investment portfolios to cryptocurrencies, which will amount to about $312 billion, that is, about 20% of the current volume of the crypto market. Agree that this kind of growth over 5-6 years looks modest enough.
Earlier, Tudor Investment hedge fund founder Paul Tudor Jones said in an interview with CNBC that hereserves 5% of his capital each for gold, bitcoin, exchange contracts and cash. The billionaire was going to determine the scenario for placing the remaining 80% funds after analyzing the outcome of the June 16 meeting of the US Fed. The investor hinted that he could increase the share of "inflationary" instruments if the monetary authorities ignore the recent "very significant" jump in consumer prices. The meeting has passed and, perhaps, we will soon know the final content of the Tudor Investment portfolio.
The above leads to the conclusion that, despite caution in approaches, institutional investors continue to believe in the prospects of the crypto market. As another billionaire, Avenue Capital Management founder Mark Lasry, observed, the cryptocurrency market has already formed and is not threatened by anything. “If a market is created, it does not disappear anywhere,” the financier believes.
It is also encouraging that hodlers holding bitcoins for more than six months have, for the first time since October 2020, started buying more than selling. And whales (wallets from 100 BTC to 10,000 BTC) have purchased about 90,000 coins in the last month for about $3.4 billion.
Such optimists include venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper. Back in 2018, he predicted the growth of the first cryptocurrency to $250,000 by 2022. And he has confirmed his forecast now, albeit with some timing prolongation. Bitcoin will hit the $250,000 mark by the end of 2022 or early 2023, according to his latest statement, despite the sharp price fluctuations. The reasons for the growth, which the billionaire named, are still the same: the limited emission of coins and the growing demand for digital gold as protection from inflation.
And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time, the President of Salvador Nayyib Bukele is its hero, who has recently come up with another initiative. He instructed the head of state-owned electricity company LaGeo to develop a plan to mine bitcoin with "very cheap, 100% clean, 100% renewable, zero emissions" energy... of more than 20 volcanoes in the country. So, if you happen to have an active volcano in your possession, you may well follow the example of the head of El Salvador. Elon Musk will be pleased.
(https://i.imgur.com/BXzQKZs.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 24, 2021, 07:28:05 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/7c1cYD6.jpg)

- Sotheby's auction house, founded in 1744, will auction a rare diamond in Hong Kong. The lot has been estimated at $10-$15 million. The bets are planned to be accepted in the traditional currency, bitcoins or Ethereum. Bidding will start on July 9. Before that, the 101.38-carat pear-shaped diamond will be exhibited at Sotheby's Gallery in Hong Kong.
“This is truly a symbolic moment,” the auction house said in a statement. “The most ancient and symbolic value denominator can be purchased for the first time with the latest universal currency of humanity.”

- According to Reuters, China's authorities have once again caused panic in the cryptocurrency market. The People's Bank of China has reportedly urged banks to immediately close payment gateways for customers who trade in digital assets. The crypto market reacted immediately to this news with a drop to $1.164 trillion. Thus, in just seven days, from June 15 to 22, the market has shrunk by more than 33%.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the bitcoin network also falls. At the time of writing, it has shrunk to 91 exahash per sec. Note that the last time the network recorded such values was back in November 2020. However, according to a number of experts, this reduction in the hash rate may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.

- Amid the Chinese government's crackdown on the crypto industry, a logistics company in Guangzhou announced it was transporting a large batch of bitcoin mining equipment to the United States. According to CNBC, the cargo weighing 3,000 kg will be delivered to Maryland by air.
Earlier, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez talked about plans to attract Chinese miners to the city, giving them access to nuclear energy. He stressed that he had not received specific proposals, but he was sure that cheap electricity would be of interest to industry representatives.

- Michael Burry, an investor and founder of hedge fund Scion Capital, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. However, then this tweet was deleted. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote.
The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."

- Bestselling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki has also predicted the collapse of the crypto market. “The biggest bubble in world history is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote.
Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000.

- Business intelligence and software provider MicroStrategy has done it again: it has bought over 13,000 bitcoins. Michael Saylor's firm is now the largest corporate investor in digital assets. It owns 105,085 BTC, which is 0.5% of all bitcoins that ever existed and 0.56% of all tokens currently in circulation.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Saylor wrote on Twitter, 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman has invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
Note that on the back of the latest drop in the crypto market, MicroStrategy shares are down 7.8%.

- Popular analyst PlanB has described a potentially bearish scenario for bitcoin this year. As usual, he relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” he tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.

- Russian billionaire co-owner of the aluminum giant En+ Group Oleg Deripaska accused the Bank of Russia of tight regulation of digital assets. In his opinion, the central bank discourages citizens from getting involved in cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. He suggested that the country should add the main cryptocurrency as a means of payment.
In addition, the oligarch pointed to the need for Russia to effectively conclude business deals with the rest of the world and called on the central bank to adopt "a real financial instrument that ensures independence in foreign trade settlements." “Even poor El Salvador realized the need for digital currencies and took the simple path of accepting bitcoin as a means of payment,” Deripaska said.

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. Cramer said there were structural problems in digital gold and predicted a further decline in its price. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. This is not a democracy. This is a dictatorship. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control.”
Cramer also said that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place,” he explained.
The Mad Money presenter added that the drop in Bitcoin to $30,000 could be an entry point for new investors. However, the presenter himself does not intend to buy cryptocurrency.

- The founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor:
“Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.

- IOHK CEO, Cardano founder and Ethereum co-founder Charles Hoskinson has no doubts that ETH will beat BTC.
“The problem with bitcoin is that it's too slow - it's like programming for mainframes of the past, compared to building applications now. The only reason bitcoin still exists is because there is a huge amount of money invested in its support. " “Bitcoin is our worst enemy. It has a huge network, a well-known name and the support of regulators. But you cannot change its system, even if you fix the most problematic places, ” - said Hoskinson. He also commented on the bitcoin community, calling it "too ossified" and reluctant to innovate.

- Tesla founder Elon Musk should better study the mining of the first cryptocurrency, since in reality it is much more environmentally friendly than is commonly thought. “I don’t know how long Elon has been studying mining, but I hope he does a little more research on this topic,” said Kraken CEO Jesse Powell in an interview with Bloomberg. He acknowledged that there may be greener alternatives to bitcoin. But, in his opinion, people overestimate the harm of cryptocurrency to the environment.
Mining digital gold allows a lot of excess and wasted energy to be utilized, and also contributes to the development of the renewable energy sector, Powell said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 27, 2021, 04:04:40 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 28 - July 02, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. The data on the labor market and the US economy released last week did not have much positive to please. Q1 GDP growth (6.4%) coincided with forecast data, which is no better but also no worse than market expectations. And then there were some disappointments. Initial jobless claims were 411K with a forecast of 380K. The increase in durable goods orders for May was lower than expected at 2.3% instead of 2.7%. And capital goods orders fell into the negative zone, minus 0.1%. And all this is against the back of Markit's business growth in Germany (60.4 in June versus 56.2 in May) and in the Eurozone as a whole (59.2 vs. 57.1).
Despite the slowing American economy, the risk appetite of those willing to invest in it has not subsided, but, on the contrary, even grew. They were backed by President Joe Biden's Senate-approved infrastructure plan. This plan includes the construction of new roads and bridges, ports, investments in water supply, clean energy and broadband internet. The total investment will amount to $1.2 trillion. Such an infusion will create thousands of new jobs and add points to the United States in the economic confrontation with China.
The rise in related investor optimism has already led the Dow Jones to gain more than 1,400 points over the week, the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite once again updating historic highs, and The VIX Fear and Volatility Index fell to a one-year low.
The outflow of funds to the stock markets weakened the dollar. The DXY dollar index fell from 92.32 to 91.80, while the euro was winning back 110 points from the American currency at the week's high. Starting from 1.1865, the EUR/USD pair reached 1.1975 on Friday June 25, after which the bulls dried up, followed by a fightback and finish at 1.1940;

- GBP/USD. A meeting of the Bank of England took place on Thursday, June 24. As for the specific momentary steps of the regulator, no one expected any surprises from it. It was clear to everyone that the Bank of England would not make drastic moves and would leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. So it happened: the asset buyback program was maintained at ?895bn and the interest rate at 0.1%.
However, investors had hoped that positive UK labor market data would prompt the Bank's management to start discussing moves to wind down programs for quantitative easing (QE) soon. Just as their colleagues from the other side of the Atlantic intend to do.
On these expectations, as most analysts predicted (55 per cent), the GBP/USD pair moved north, reaching the key 1.4000. However, then the degree of optimism went down. The first tub of cold water was poured on Wednesday June 23 following the publication of the June Markit PMI for the UK services sector. It turned out to be lower than in May: 61.7 compared to 62.9. And then a whole chilling waterfall followed: the Bank of England not only did not change the parameters of the quantitative easing (QE) program but did not give a hint that these parameters could be changed in the foreseeable future.
Carried away by a stream of sobering water, the GBP/USD pair groped the local bottom only at 1.3870. And barely pushing off from it, it was able to complete the week 20 points higher, at the level of 1.3885;   

- USD/JPY. When making a forecast for the past week, the majority of experts (65%) voted for further strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair above the 111.00 horizon. They were supported by graphical analysis on H4, as well as 85% of oscillators and 95% of trend indicators on D1. And they were all right: despite the fact that the dollar was falling against the euro and the pound in the first half of the five-day period, it was growing against the Japanese yen, reaching the height of 111.10 on June 24. True, the Japanese currency failed to gain a foothold there, and it placed the last chord at 110.75;

- cryptocurrencies. Although these currencies are virtual, the news regarding them is quite real. Let's start with a brief overview.
The developer of the well-known anti-virus of the same name, “crypto-baron” John McAfee has been found dead in a cell at a prison in Barcelona. The cause of death, Forbes reports citing the Spanish Ministry of Justice, is believed to have been suicide after a Spanish court decided to extradite McAfee to the United States. There, among other things, he was accused of money laundering, tax evasion and orchestrating altcoin fraud. The US DOJ claimed McAfee and his partner earned more than $2 million on cryptocurrencies.
However, this 2 million seems a ridiculous figure compared to the $3.6 billion that Africypt's creators, brothers Raees and Ameer Cajee, from South Africa, stole from investors. And if John McAfee was already 75, then these scammers were barely 17 and 20 years old, respectively.
According to Bloomberg, the Cajee brothers' scam could become the largest in the history of the cryptocurrency market. So far, the top line has been held by Canadian QuadrigACX project creator Gerald Cotten, emptying the pockets of $162 million worth of customers.
These amounts are large, of course. But the main losses for investors do not come from the actions of fraudsters, but because of the regulators. The total crypto market capitalization decreased by almost $400 billion in just 10 days, from June 15 to June 25, - from $1.734 trillion to $1.336 trillion. It even fell to $1.164 trillion at the low, returning to the values of February 2021. In addition, almost $900 million of futures positions were liquidated in just one day, June 23.
Along with the fall of the crypto market, the hash rate of the BTC network also decreased. However, according to a number of experts, this may be due to the relocation of miners from China to other countries.
The negative news background led to a drop in bitcoin quotes below the dangerous psychological level of $30,000. As a result, the BTC/USD pair returned to where it was five months ago, on January 27, 2021. The local bottom was reached at $29,240 (a loss of about 55% from the April 14 high).
According to a number of experts, the benchmark currency could have fallen down to $25,000, but buyers came to its rescue, who were waiting for the moment to buy an asset at a large discount. As a result, the pair grew slightly, and on the evening of Friday June 25, BTC traded in the region of $32,000-33,000 per coin.
It would seem that in such a situation, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index would have to fall deep into the Extreme Fear zone, to zero. However, having shown a minimal drawdown of up to 22 points, it quickly returned to where it was a week ago, to the 25-point mark.
According to some experts, the fact that bitcoin has held up in the $30,000 area proves its exclusivity. Without it, altcoins would most likely just go into free fall.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Recall that after the June 16 meeting, the hawkish forecasts of Federal Reserve executives have dramatically revived the market's appetite for the dollar. Inspired by their rhetoric, investors rushed to buy USD even despite weak US macro statistics.
As a result, having started on June 16 from a height of 1.2125 and flying down 280 points, the EUR/USD pair completed the five-day period at 1.1845 on Friday June 18. And it turned around again and went up on Monday, June 21.
What is that? Have investors changed their minds? Or is it just a correction on the downtrend path?
On the one hand, representatives of the FRS continue to insist that the US labor market is still far from the pre-crisis level, and therefore, for now, it is necessary to maintain soft financial conditions. Such statements, coupled with improved global risk appetite and positive economic data from the Eurozone, should push the EUR/USD pair higher.     
But on the other hand, Jerome Powell and his colleagues recognized the need to discuss the process of winding up stimulus programs (QE). There was also a signal of their intention to raise interest rates earlier than expected. The ECB, on the contrary, declares that they are not going to rush to reduce QE volumes, and that the current inflation rate in the Eurozone does not cause concern. And these factors are already not playing on the side of the dollar.
The macroeconomic indicators published next week may tip the scales in one direction or another. Data on the German consumer market will be released on Tuesday June 29 and Thursday July 1, and a preliminary consumer price index will be released on Wednesday, showing the level of inflation in the Eurozone as a whole. As for the statistics from the United States, we will find out the change in the ISM business activity index in the country's manufacturing sector on July 1. And data on the US labor market will come out on June 30 and July 02, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).
In the meantime, 60% of analysts, supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1, expect the dollar to strengthen and the pair to decline to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The next target for the bears is the March 31, 2021 low. 1.1700. The nearest support is 1.1915 and 1.1880.
The remaining 40% of the experts side with the bulls, which will try to regain the positions lost over the last month. The first serious resistance is in the 1.1985-1.2000 zone, the next one is 100 pips higher. The goal is to update the May 25 high at 1.2265;

- GBP/USD. As a reminder, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has postponed the full opening of the country's businesses for a month. This is due to an increase in cases of infection with the Delta coronavirus strain, first discovered in India, which doubles the risk of hospitalization. The number of infections has approached 20,000 a day, and this is putting pressure on the pound. (Although only 18 people died from COVID-19 during the same period. The ratio is less than 0.001, which is a very optimistic indicator).
The increasingly unstable relations between London and Brussels after Brexit continue to put pressure on the pound. This is especially true for trade between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.
However, at the same time, 50% of experts hope that the British currency will find the strength to retest the level of 1.4000 and rise another 100 points higher. The nearest resistance is 1.3940. More distant targets are 1.4150 and 1.4250.
20% of analysts are Currency carry trade on the victory of the dollar and the fall of the pair to the zone 1.3670-1.3700. The remaining 30% believe that the pair will remain in the sideways channel 1.3800-1.4000.   
The indicator readings look like this: 85% of the oscillators are colored red, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are also overwhelmingly in the red zone. Those are 100% on H4 and 85% on D1. Graphical analysis draws the following trading ranges: 1.3850-1.4050 for H4, 1.3770-1.4000 for D1.
As for the events of the coming week, we can note the publication of UK GDP data on Wednesday June 30, as well as the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Thursday July 1;
(https://i.imgur.com/P6zcDvP.jpg)

- USD/JPY. Who will win: USD haven currency or JPY's safe haven?  Or, if you like, you can ask the question the other way around: a safe haven currency JPY or a safe haven USD? 80% of oscillators and 90% of trend indicators on D1 bet on the dollar to win. However, the remaining 20% of the oscillators are signaling that the pair is overbought.
Graphical analysis believes that having pushed off the support in the 109.75-110.100 zone, the pair will go up, break through the resistance at 111.00 and try to first update the high of last year March 24 at 111.70, and then the high of February 20, 2020, of 112.25.
Experts’ opinions on the pair's movement in the coming week were divided equally, 50 by 50. However, in the transition to the forecast for July, 75% side with the bears, believing that the USD/JPY pair will be able to drop to the area of 108.00-108.55.
In terms of macro statistics, the Bank of Japan will release the Tankan Index for Q2 of this year on July 01. This Large Producers Index reflects the general business environment for the country's large, mostly export-oriented companies. A reading above 0 is positive for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is negative. The index is projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. 

- cryptocurrencies. It is highly likely that the bull and bear fight in the area of $30,000 will continue. The medium-term goal of the latter is to bring the BTC/USD pair back to the $20,000 mark, the December 2017 high, after reaching which the market was pinned down by ice frosts. Now the pair has lost about 55% in just two months. So, the current crypto winter could turn out to be much harsher than in 2018. As mentioned above, investors are actively closing long positions and liquidating futures transactions. And the heads of financial giants JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have again declared bitcoin an unwanted investment.
Investor and founder of the hedge fund Scion Capital, Michael Burry who had predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, warned his subscribers about the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. "All the hype and speculation is just attracting retail traders before the mother of all the crashes. Parabolic [uptrends] will not pass. [...] History has not changed,” Burry wrote. The investor also noted that the problem of the digital asset market lies in too much leverage. “If you don’t know how much leverage is in cryptocurrencies, you don’t know anything about cryptocurrencies,” he stressed.
Burry had earlier warned that the market had inflated "the biggest bubble in history." In his post, he used the hashtag FlyingPigs360, which, according to Business Insider, may be a reference to the adage about investment: "Bulls make money, bears make money, but pigs get slaughtered."
The author of the bestselling "Rich Dad Poor Dad" entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined Michael Burrie. He also expects the crypto market to collapse. “The biggest bubble is getting bigger. The biggest crash in world history is approaching. Buy more gold and silver. Expect bitcoin to drop to $24,000,” he wrote. (Recall that in 2020, Kiyosaki advised buying the first cryptocurrency until its price exceeded $20,000 and predicted the growth of the asset to $50,000).
Jim Kramer, former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of CNBC's Mad Money show, sold most of his bitcoins following news of China's mining restrictions. "When China pursues something, they tend to bring the matter to an end. I think they see bitcoin as a direct threat to the regime because of what it is - the system is beyond their control,” he said and he added that a decrease in the rate of mined coins could have a positive effect on the rate of the first cryptocurrency, but this did not happen. “When mining is limited, bitcoin obviously has to go up, unless holders are going out all over the place.”
However, as usual, there are not only those who sell in the market, but also those who buy. Thus, for example, the founder of the Point72 Asset Management Fund Steve Cohen, unlike Jim Cramer, on the contrary, reformatted completely to cryptocurrency. Cohen, whose net worth is estimated at $14 billion, said that he does not care about the current price of bitcoin, as he is still an early investor: “Now I definitely won't miss anything. I missed the first part, but I still feel that I got involved quite early,” says the billionaire.
The MicroStrategy company also replenished its reserves of the main cryptocurrency, having bought another 13,005 coins. This Michael Saylor firm now owns 105,085 BTC, making it the largest corporate investor in digital assets.
The company made the purchase after it raised $500 million through the placement of high-priority securities. As Sailor wrote on Twitter, the 13,005 coins were bought for just under $500 million at an average price of $37,617. In total, the businessman invested over $2.7 billion in bitcoins, and the average purchase price was $26,080, which allows the company to remain in the black for now.
In terms of forecasts, the scenario described by the popular PlanB analyst is interesting. As usual, the specialist relies on a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model. PlanB emphasizes that the current price pattern is consistent with a bearish scenario, however he is confident that bitcoin will hit its all-time high by October. And the price will reach $135,000 by the end of the year.
“Bitcoin fell below $34,000 due to Elon Musk's tweet about the unsustainability of bitcoin, as well as due to the panic caused by the Chinese repression against miners,” PlanB tweeted. “However, there are more fundamental reasons for the June decline. Perhaps they will spread to July. My worst-case scenario for 2021 (based on on-chain analysis): August> $47,000, September> $43,000, October> $63,000, November> $98,000, December> $135,000." The most optimistic scenario assumes an increase in BTC to $450,000.
The weighted average forecast of experts for the coming week looks like this: 70% of them expect the BTC/USD pair to return to the $36,000 zone, the remaining 30% see it at $28,000-29,000.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 30, 2021, 05:07:15 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/B45AlY3.jpg)

- "The cryptocurrency market is not yet completely healthy, however, the healing process has already begun." This conclusion was reached by JPMorgan analysts in their new report, Bloomberg writes. Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse.
For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market was described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult." Analysts also believe that there are still "submarine positions" in the market, that the market should get rid of. However, it is unclear from the report what level bitcoin should reach for full “healing.”

- Former CEO of Gyft and co-founder of the Civic project, Vinnie Lingham, was once nicknamed the "oracle" because he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.

- Owners of small hydropower plants in China are forced to sell equipment due to government restrictive measures against bitcoin miners. These are small hydroelectric power plants generating about 50 MW, some of which are located in the Sichuan province. Local authorities demanded a halt to the activities of “key” miners until June 20 and banned energy companies from supplying power to them.

- The President of Kazakhstan Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a law providing for the introduction of additional mining fees. The National Association of Blockchain and Data Center Industry of Kazakhstan said the decision will “very negatively affect the investment attractiveness of the industry.” According to the president of the association, miners from China, who see Kazakhstan as a possible jurisdiction for migration, are also “embarrassed by this initiative.”
As for the authorities, they see no “critical consequences” from the adoption of the law. In their view, the introduction of an additional electricity charge when mining cryptocurrencies will allow "to bring out of the shadow those miners who are now in the grey zone."

- Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of the Mad Money show on CNBC Jim Cramer cut his positions at Ethereum in May, after the coin hit the historic high at $4,350. And now he has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he added, "I love Ethereum because people are really using it a lot more."

- Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin.
“Fiat is a fraud,” Pliego stated. “See: I started my career in 1981. The Mexican peso was then quoted against the dollar at a rate of 20 to 1. But after 10 years, the rate became 20,000 to 1. And that's just in Mexico. But look at Venezuela, Argentina or Zimbabwe. The numbers have grown so much that this has led to a violation of all proportions. Therefore, no pesos, no paper money!"
Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. 'It's an asset that has international value and is trading with incredible liquidity globally. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.

- One of the markets where the competition between bitcoin and gold is most pronounced is India - a country where people used to traditionally invest in the precious metal. It is believed that Indian households own more than 25,000 tons of gold, although bitcoin has recently entered the country as well. According to the analytical service Chainalysis, investments in cryptocurrency in the country have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion in the last year alone, which means an increase of 20,000%. This is despite numerous efforts by the country's government and central bank to prevent, if not totally ban, investment in cryptocurrencies.
There are now more than 15 million crypto investors in the country, which is less than 23 million in the US, but more than 2.3 million in the UK. However, for a country with a population of over 1.3 billion people, the share of those involved in cryptocurrency transactions is still very low: 1.15%.
Of the 15 million named, the largest proportion are millennials under 35, who are less attracted to gold than previous generations, according to the World Gold Council.

- Veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest BTC holders, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu died in Costa Rica. He was also known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world."
According to local media reports, Popescu was carried off by a current near the Tramonto Hotel when he went to swim in a prohibited place. His body was found on the beach on the morning of June 23. A medical team arrived at the scene, but resuscitation measures did not bring results.
Remembering Popescu, members of the crypto community call him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and "sleeping giant". He was one of bitcoin's most conservative supporters and objected to any changes to the cryptocurrency protocol. “The guy had enough bitcoins to do whatever he wanted in life. Popescu could drop bitcoin almost to zero at one moment and hold the price for some time. He aroused little sympathy but laid the foundations for what we have today."
Some believe that by naming 1 million coins, Popescu exaggerated the number of bitcoins at his disposal. The real figure could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC. However, it made him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now this huge number of bitcoins has disappeared, apparently forever.

- Paraguay could become the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. The corresponding bill will be presented in the country's parliament on July 14. According to a representative of the Congress, the initiative has already found support among "a number of very important enterprises in Paraguay."
On June 22, Paraguay's Universidad Americana University announced that it will accept Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple as tuition fees from August 2021.

- Jason Urban, Co-Head of Trading at Galaxy Digital, noted that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. He believes quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year. “We will soon see an update to the historical high,” he declared.
Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC.

- Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a few negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said.
Trabucco also added that it was all exacerbated by a bloated derivatives market and massive liquidations of positions. “No one wanted to sell at $30,000, however many were forced to do so. This means that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal,” he said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 02, 2021, 06:16:09 PM
NordFX Lottery: First $20,000 Found Their Owners

(https://i.imgur.com/EHha8WR.jpg)

The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 1, 2021. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

The first $20,000 of the total prize pool of $100,000 were raffled off among NordFX clients. The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

Prize amount $2500
No. of the winning ticket: 2595, 1183
Prize amount $1000
No. of the winning ticket: 0455, 3243, 2611, 3282, 4826
Prize amount $500
No. of the winning ticket: 3142, 1763, 4176, 3784, 2302, 3465, 5793, 2150, 4434, 2656, 1322, 4204, 3436, 4681, 2296, 1443, 4172, 3834, 1362, 4574.

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The next draws will take place on October 01, 2021 (prize fund $20,000) and January 03, 2022 (prize fund $60,000).

Everyone can take part in the lottery and get chances of winning one or even more cash prizes, including the $20,000 super prize. Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: dunko on July 03, 2021, 03:57:23 PM
Great!
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 05, 2021, 08:35:51 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 05 - 09, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Making a forecast for the previous week, the majority of analysts (60%), supported by 85% of oscillators and trend indicators, voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the decline of the EUR/USD pair to the June 18 low of 1.1845. The forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and the pair reached the set goal as early as Wednesday, June 30. But the dollar did not stop there and its DXY index renewed a three-month high on Friday, July 02, peaking at 92.699. 
The growth of the American currency was due to the expectation that the pace of the US economic recovery will force the Fed to accelerate plans to reduce the programs of financial and credit stimulus (QE). And the market expected the strong labor market data, which was due out in mid-Friday, to push the dollar even higher.
According to the Department of Labor, the number of new jobs created in the non-agricultural sectors in the United States (Nonfarm Payrolls) actually turned out to be higher than the forecast by 150 thousand: 850 thousand instead of the estimated 700 thousand. The EUR/USD pair fell further downward, however, having reached the level of 1.1805, it unexpectedly turned around and soared to the north no less rapidly. The reason was the second published indicator: according to forecasts, the unemployment rate should have decreased from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
This result showed a weak recovery in the US labor market, investors' expectations regarding the imminent tightening of the Fed's monetary policy weakened, and this supported the risk sentiment. The Dow Jones index went up, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite renewed all-time highs once again. The DXY fell to 92.24 and EUR/USD closed the weekly session at 1.1863;

- GBP/USD. Concerns about the Delta COVID-19 strain are putting a lot of pressure on the pound sterling. Investors were not pleased with the data on the UK GDP for Q1, which turned out to be worse than the forecast (minus 1.6% versus minus 1.5%).
With regard to inflation, in his speech on Thursday July 1, the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey stressed that its high rates are temporary, as the British economy returns to the average and slows down the growth rate. This announcement pushed the pound further down. And if not for the disappointing US unemployment data, the GBP/USD pair would probably have tested the 1.3670 support. In reality, its fall was stopped at the 1.3730 horizon, and the last chord of the week sounded 100 points higher, at 1.3830;

- USD / JPY. the Bank of Japan published the value of the Tankan index for Q2 of this year on July 1. This index reflects the general business conditions for large companies in the country. A reading above 0 is considered to be a positive factor for the JPY, while a reading below 0 is considered negative. The index was projected to rise to 15, up from 5 in Q1 2021. Tankan did grow, though not to 15, but to 14. But neither its growth nor its value have had virtually any impact on the USD/JPY pair. As it was not strongly influenced by the decline in the yield of US Treasury bonds. The pair basically just copied what was happening with the DXY index. The dollar grew, and the pair also grew, breaking through the important resistance of 111.00 and finding itself at a height of 111.65 - very close with the high of March 24, 2020 - 111.70. Then the dollar collapsed, and so did the pair. True, it was able to stay above the horizon at 111.00 and finished at 111.05;

- cryptocurrencies.  The forecast, which was given seven days ago, said that "with a high degree of probability, the fight between bulls and bears in the $30,000 area will continue." This is exactly what happened. The local bottom was reached at $30,200. Then the bulls managed to raise the BTC/USD pair to $36,590, but they could not keep it above the psychologically important level of $36,000, and the price of bitcoin dropped to $32,700 on Friday, July 02.
The lack of significant victories on both sides was facilitated by a fairly calm news background. We list just a few, more or less noticeable, of these news stories:
- There was a rumor that Paraguay could be the next country after El Salvador to recognize bitcoin as legal tender. However, then it was clarified that the purpose of the bill, which will be presented to Parliament on July 14, is completely different and is to regulate digital assets, and not to turn bitcoin into a national currency.
- The panic after the mining ban in China is gradually subsiding. In China itself, authorities have banned energy companies from supplying electricity to miners. In theory, this should have brought the hash rate down to zero in the country. However, some enterprising crypto miners are trying to continue their business using small private hydroelectric power plants. Another part of mining companies migrates - some to the USA, and some, for example, to Kazakhstan. Against this background, the President of Kazakhstan signed a law on the introduction of additional payments for electricity when mining cryptocurrencies, which may negatively affect the country's attractiveness for this industry.
- Ark Invest, managed by Katie Wood, is the ninth company to apply to the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF).
- According to the analytical service Chainalysis, the number of crypto investors in India has exceeded 15 million, and investments in cryptocurrency over the past year have grown from about $200 million to almost $40 billion, which means an increase of 20,000%.
- A veteran of the crypto market and one of the largest holders of BTC, 41-year-old Mircea Popescu, drowned in Costa Rica. He was known as a blogger and self-proclaimed "greatest erotic writer in the world." The crypto community called him "the evil genius of bitcoin maximalism", "the father of toxicity around bitcoin" and the "sleeping giant" who "could at one moment bring bitcoin to virtually zero and hold the price for some time." The actual number of coins owned by Popescu could be between 50,000 and 300,000 BTC, making him one of the largest cryptocurrency holders in the world. Now, this huge number of bitcoins seems to have disappeared forever.
And a few words about Elon Musk (we can't do without him!). Perhaps the billionaire has already played enough with bitcoin and Dogecoin, and now he has a new hobby - BabyDoge. After his tweet with three repeated unpretentious text "Baby Doge, doo, doo, doo, doo, doo, ...", the value of this coin has increased by 500% in two weeks, and the trading volume has tripled. It is still unknown whether Musk himself made money on such a "pump".
As for the crypto market as a whole, unlike BabyDoge, its capitalization increased very slightly over the week: from $1.336 trillion to $1.381 trillion. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell from 47.05% to 45.52%, and the BTC Crypto Fear & Greed Index found itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again, at around 21 points.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The data on inflation and consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone are not the most encouraging. Tourism revenues are falling, due to the Delta strain of the coronavirus and the divorce from the UK. In general, optimism about the recovery of the European economy is declining.
As for the United States, Congress has raised its forecasts for 2021 both on the growth of inflation - from 1.7% to 2.8%, and on the growth of the country's economy - from 3.7% to 7.4%. The IMF expects US GDP to grow by 7%, the fastest pace since 1984. As for the interest rate, according to the IMF experts, the Fed will raise it either at the end of 2022 or at the beginning of 2023. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker suggests starting to wind down the Asset Purchase Program (QE) as early as this year. And the faster that happens, the sooner the interest rate will be raised in 2022.
The Fed is constantly saying that it will raise the interest rate in full employment only. And if the labour market data released on July 02 were positive, it would have sent EUR/USD to the March 31 lows of 1.1700. However, instead of falling, the unemployment rate rose from 5.8% to 5.9% in June, casting doubt on the continuation of the pair's downtrend.
Before the release of unemployment data, 70% of experts sided with the bears. Now the situation has changed, and 65% expect the pair to grow during July. The same applies to indicators: 100% of oscillators and trend indicators on H4 and D1 were colored red until mid-Friday July 02. But by the time the markets closed, the color scheme on H4 had changed: some of the indicators turned into neutral grey, and some even turned green.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1975, then 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1765.
The economic calendar for the coming week looks rather modest. It highlights Tuesday, July 06, when the Eurozone retail sales data and the ISM business activity index for the US services sector will be released;
(https://i.imgur.com/EdsOR8X.jpg)

- GBP/USD. There is no unity in inflation estimates in the ranks of the Bank of England's senior management. Suffice to listen to the soothing statements of the head of the Bank, Andrew Bailey, and the exact opposite - of the chief economist Andy Haldane, who is greatly alarmed by inflationary risks. We have already said in the first part of the review that thanks to Bailey's position, the pound came under pressure, and its quotes were “saved” from a further fall by the increased unemployment in the US. Otherwise, the pound would have continued its decline as a pair with the euro.
The GBP/USD forecast, as with EUR/USD, changed the vector dramatically at the very end of the past week as well. If before the US unemployment data was published, 60% of analysts had expected the UK currency to weaken further, 75% vote for the growth of the pair during the month. Technical analysis readings on H4 have also mixed, although 90% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 are still facing south. Graphic analysis on H4 indicates the pair's growth to 1.3900, and D1 shows its movement during the week in the range 1.3730-1.3870.
Support levels are 1.3800, 1.3730 and 1.3670, resistance - 1.3900, 1.4000, then the zone 1.4100-1.4165;

- USD/JPY. The indicators for this pair are almost no different from those of their EUR/USD and GBP/USD counterparts. (Only in this case, their color changes from red to green). But the opinion of experts here turned out to be more constant, it just changed quantitatively: if 55% had voted for the strengthening of the yen and the decrease in the pair, then their number increased to 75%. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways movement of the pair along the support/resistance line of 111.00, on D1 it forecasts first a decline to 110.40, and then an increase above the high of March 24, 2020, at 111.70.
The targets of the bears are the zones 109.75-110.100 and 108.00-108.55. The bulls, subject to taking the height of 111.70, will seek to raise the pair to the high of February 20, 2020, 112.25;

- cryptocurrencies. According to a report by cryptanalytics company Glassnode, institutional demand for bitcoin is declining. One of the main factors supporting the upward trend in BTC was the influx of institutional investments into the GBTC Grayscale trust fund. Glassnode analysts note that declining GBTC premiums, net outflows from ETFs, and stagnating Coinbase balance sheets indicate that demand for the main cryptocurrency from institutions remains weak.
Despite this, many of the experts are optimistic about the current situation. According to JPMorgan analysts, "the cryptocurrency market is not yet quite healthy; however, the healing process has already begun." Although bitcoin is still far from highs, cryptocurrencies are gradually recovering from the collapse. For example, the lack of activity in the bitcoin futures market is described by JPMorgan strategists as a “positive factor.” However, the short-term outlook, in their opinion, is "extremely difficult."
Sam Trabucco, a trader at Alameda Research, also believes that the bitcoin market is already preparing for an upswing. In his opinion, a number of negative news that have been released recently have no fundamental value and is only aimed at creating short-term negative sentiments.
Trabucco writes that negative news from China, Elon Musk's concerns about the environmental friendliness of bitcoin and the likely insolvency of MicroStrategy associated with the fall in BTC are causing an overly negative reaction. Previously, the price reacted in the same way to the Tesla purchase for BTC and Musk's optimistic messages. “But none of this news in any way affects the value of bitcoin and how people should evaluate it in the medium term,” the expert said. And he adds that the $30,000 price should be taken as a buy signal.
Jason Urban, co-head of trading at Galaxy Digital, is waiting for the market to turn north as well. He notes that negative news should exhaust itself by autumn, and bitcoin will continue its upward movement. Urban believes that many institutional investors have not yet entered the crypto market due to regulatory uncertainty, however, they will sooner or later, creating an increased demand for BTC. According to the specialist, “we will soon see an update to the historical high,” and the quotes could reach $70,000 by the end of this year.
Former Gyft CEO and Civic project co-founder Vinny Lingham also spoke out. He was once nicknamed "the oracle" for the fact that he was able to predict the future value of the oldest cryptocurrency.
Lingham's predictions for BTC are not always optimistic, and his calls are traditionally more conservative than those of people with fantastic ideas. However, like many others, he believes there is a possibility that BTC could hit six figures as early as this year. Oracle wrote in his Twitter account that if the price continues to hold at $30,000, then we will probably see bitcoin at $100,000 by the end of the year.
Billionaire Ricardo Salinas Pliego, who is one of the top three richest people in Mexico according to Forbes, said that when choosing an asset for the next 30 years, “would I never choose the stinking fiat”, and preferred bitcoin. Salinas believes that bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. “This is an asset that has international value and is traded globally with incredible liquidity. That's enough for it to be part of every portfolio, period."
The key advantage of bitcoin, according to the billionaire, is its limited emission. For the same reason, he does not believe in Ethereum, explaining that unlimited emission leads to the depreciation of existing assets.
Former Cramer & Co hedge fund manager and host of NBC's Mad Money show Jim Kramer is of the opposite opinion. He has again increased his savings in the second most capitalized cryptocurrency. Surprisingly, it was the positive dynamics of... bitcoin that pushed him to buy Ethereum. “I went back to Ethereum because bitcoin held above $30,000,” he claimed. And he explained that he gave preference to this altcoin, since Ethereum is much more useful for people than the main cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 08, 2021, 07:41:17 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/5CxqHSs.jpg)

- CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.

- More than a thousand companies were affected by the cyberattack on the American software developer Kaseya. The operators of the REvil ransomware virus, who are being linked to Russia, are allegedly behind the hack. The company initially said that only a small group of its customers were affected by the hackers' actions, but the scale of those affected by the attack was increasing as the investigation progressed.
Cybersecurity experts assumed immediately that the hacker group REvil was behind the attack. Huntress Labs later discovered a $70 million ransom demand in bitcoin on a darknet hacker site for decrypting the files of all victims.
REvil (also known as Sodinokibi) is often associated with Russia due to the fact that they do not attack Russian organizations or enterprises in the countries of the former USSR and often publish messages in Russian.

- JP Morgan Bank analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou said in an interview with CNBC that investors have begun to shift funds from other digital assets to bitcoin over the past few weeks. This reversed the trend that began in April, when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins. "The flow of funds, even to Ethereum, has noticeably decreased over the past two to three weeks, while the outflow of funds from bitcoins has slowed down." This could mean that the bear market for bitcoin is likely coming to an end.
JP Morgan believes that the value of bitcoin itself is more important for institutional investors than its volatility. And further integration of the world of institutional companies into bitcoin will lead to a “normalization” of cryptocurrency No.1 volatility, according to Panigirtsoglou.

- The Crypto Head cryptocurrency platform rated the United States as the country most prepared for the massive introduction of digital assets. When compiling a ranking of 76 countries, the platform's specialists took into account: number of thematic Google searches, number of cryptocurrency ATMs installed, the level of legalization of cryptocurrencies by tax and financial laws.
The USA received a score of 7.13 points out of possible 10. Cyprus and Singapore are next in the ranking with 6.47 and 6.3 respectively. Rounding out the top five are Hong Kong and the United Kingdom.

- Brazil's Federal Police liquidated Bitcoin Banco Group, whose damage for 7,000 citizens exceeded $300 million. Its leader, Claudio Oliveira, known as the "King of Bitcoin", has been arrested.
During the 2017 bull market, the Bitcoin Banco Group promised clients “incredible profits”. In late 2019, the firm reported the disappearance of 7000 BTC and filed for court recovery. This document involves signing an agreement with the authorities to reorganize activities to avoid bankruptcy. However, the investigation, which lasted three years, revealed that employees of the organization had been systematically transferring client funds into Oliveira's personal accounts.

- Bitcoin.org, a popular information resource, allegedly created by Satoshi Nakamoto himself, underwent an "absolutely massive DDoS attack." The hackers who attacked the site are known to have demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Now Bitcoin.org is already operating normally. However, it is not known how the site operator reacted to the blackmail, or whether it paid the ransom to cyber criminals.

- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. Using a stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, he concluded that the next six months would either prove that the model worked for bitcoin, or it would prove it useless.
S2F has traditionally been applied to commodities such as gold and silver. PlanB used it to predict if bitcoin could surpass the $288,000 level. And now he has reported that BTC's bearish price move defies his calculations. According to PlanB, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether or not BTC will actually hit the six-digit range by the end of the bull race.

- Morning Brew invited subscribers to share professional fears via Twitter. The answers had to be only four words. "Elon Musk tweeted something," - this is the fear of crypto investors, described by manager Devin Marty, hinting that the statements of the billionaire have a strong impact on the quotes of digital assets. These four words have received the most likes. At the same time, some users felt that if messages on Twitter increase the volatility of an asset, then this asset cannot be considered "serious".
The fact that Elon Musk's remarks can move the market is confirmed by a survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis wants Americans to use cryptocurrency to diversify their retirement savings. Ms. Legislator is concerned about 100%-dollar retirement plans and encourages people to use bitcoins to avoid "keeping all their eggs in one basket." Cynthia Lummis herself now has about 5 BTC and when she bought the cryptocurrency for the first time, the price was $330.
The senator suggested that US pension funds also diversify their long-term portfolios with bitcoin, calling it a "good store of value." Although she personally prefers BTC, she believes that Ethereum is also a promising project.

- A number of analysts have interpreted the current situation in the bitcoin market as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method, which means that the current low of $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise increase should be expected in the future.
Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance. In addition, some experts attach particular importance to overcoming the downtrend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart.
Michael van de Poppe, trader of the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, also praised the developments in the crypto market. He noted that the consolidation continues and urged traders to be patient and wait for a breakout from the current price range. It is quite obvious that the famous trader expects a break up.

- Michael Novogratz, founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank, believes in the potential of Ethereum. He stated in a recent interview that this altcoin is capable of overshadowing bitcoin. Although BTC has become popular as a store of value, the ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
As for the clients of his own bank, Novogratz sees that there is no real worries about the collapse of the crypto industry, as investors understand that changes in the financial world are just beginning.

- Insiders are reporting that the George Soros Foundation, formerly known as the adversary of cryptocurrencies, will enter this market. New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG), the billionaire-sponsored institutional investor platform, has previously announced it is opening up access to cryptocurrency to clients of hundreds of US banks. And now the media, citing two insider sources, are spreading information that Dawn Fitzpatrick, the investment director of Soros Fund Management, after studying the market, allowed managers to trade cryptocurrency. Fitzpatrick's team also intends to invest in companies working with blockchain technology. However, there has been no official statement on this matter yet.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 09, 2021, 09:17:35 AM
June 2021 Results: Three NordFX Traders' Profits Exceed $445,000

(https://i.imgur.com/mp1EfYi.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2021. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

By a huge margin, the best result of the month was shown by a client from India, account No. 1566XXX, with a profit of 329,320 USD, which was obtained thanks to numerous transactions in a variety of pairs: GBP/USD, EUR/AUD, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, GBP/CHF, etc.

The second ranking of most successful traders was a NordFX client from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who used some of the most popular instruments, bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD) and generated revenue of 74,865 USD. It should be noted that the profit of this trader looked very impressive in May as well, 53,207 USD.

The TOP-3 of June is closed by a trader from China (account No.1397XXX) with a result of 41,862 USD, obtained through operations with the British pound (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs).

In the CopyTrading service, a Newbie trader account Fire_1 can be noted among signal providers. It has existed for only a month, and the profit on it has been 414% during this time with a maximum drawdown of 55%.

Those investors who prefer less aggressive, but also less risky trading can pay attention to the PAMM account KennyFXPRO-The­ _Multi_3000_EA. It has been working for 160 days, and it has shown an increase of 28% during this period with a drawdown of less than 15%. The profit is certainly not that great, but it is still many times higher than the interest on bank deposits.

Commissions of NordFX IB partners in June were as follows:
- the largest commission, 32,079 USD, was credited to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Vietnam, account No.1401ХХХ, who received 7,959 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No. 1522ХХХ, who received 5,899 USD as a reward, closes the top three.
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 11, 2021, 01:46:52 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 12 - 16, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. As predicted by the majority (65%) of experts, the dollar continued to weaken at the beginning of the week, and the EUR/USD pair went up. Disappointing data from the US labour market, released on July 02, affected the dollar. According to forecasts, the unemployment rate was supposed to fall from 5.8% to 5.7%, however, contrary to expectations, it rose to 5.9%.
The US business activity indicators released on Tuesday July 6 saved the American currency from further falling. And although the ISM index in the services sector fell to 60.1 in June (from a record 64 in May), this did not frighten investors, as a result above 50 is seen as positive and is in favor of the dollar. This is exactly what happened: having reached the height of 1.1895, the EUR/USD pair reversed and went down, reaching the local level at 1.1780 on Wednesday, July 07.
The minutes of the June meeting of the FRS, published at the end of the same day, showed that although curtailing financial and credit stimulation (QE) programs was discussed at it, it did not come to specific decisions. The regulator will still not rush to tighten monetary policy, relying only on inflation indicators, and will wait for the full recovery of the labor market. And on that end, as mentioned above, the indicators are not particularly optimistic at the moment, indicating a slowdown in the American economy.
The next day, Thursday, July 8, was the day when the euro was able to win back losses, not only because of the dovish position of the Fed, but also thanks to the publication of a new inflation target by the European Central Bank. Previously, the goal was to keep inflation “below but near 2%.” Now, the official target level allows for exceeding or lagging the indicator at certain points in time. At the same time, the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde stressed that her bank will not copy the new strategy of the Fed and will not specifically stimulate the growth of consumer prices in order to reach the average.
The growth of the European currency and a decrease in global risk appetite caused by the spread of the delta strains of coronavirus helped. Carry traders began to close positions open on high-interest currencies in developing countries and return to fund currencies such as EUR and JPY.       
As a result of all the fluctuations and changes in trends, the five-day total can be considered close to zero, the EUR/USD pair ended the weekly session almost the same as it started ¬at 1.1877;

- GBP/USD. The dynamics of the British pound against the dollar last week followed the movements of its European counterpart. The prediction given by the graphical analysis proved to be the most accurate, it indicated first the GBP/USD growth to 1.3870-1.3900 and then its lateral movement in 1.3730-1.3870 channel. In reality, adjusted for a few points, that's what happened. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded near the upper boundary of the channel, at 1.3890;

- USD/JPY. The competition over which currency is the best refuge from financial storms continues. And the yen won it with a clear advantage last week, having outperformed the dollar by 100 points. As predicted by the vast majority of experts (75%), the pair moved purposefully south for the entire first half of the week, recording a local low on the horizon of 109.50 on July 07. At one point, thanks to flight from stock market of investors and falling US government bond yields, its superiority was as much as 150 points.
Then, against the backdrop of the recovery in the yield of US Treasuries to 1.3433%, the dollar was able to win back some losses, and the pair finished at 110.10;

- cryptocurrencies. A poll by Morning Brew found that what retail crypto investors fear most is... Elon Musk's tweets. This was confirmed by another survey conducted by Investing.com. According to its results, one in five respondents who sold bitcoin in May 2021 associated this decision with Musk's criticism of the cryptocurrency.
To be sure, his tweets, like bans on cryptocurrency transactions in China, triggered the collapse, which saw bitcoin collapse from a height of $64,600 to $30,000. However, many experts believe that the main reason for what happened is the use of leverage in the crypto market, otherwise margin trading, which allows traders to open large positions with little funds. And it was the avalanche-like closing of such positions that led to a drop in quotations and a decrease of more than 45% in the total capitalization of the crypto market.
As for the Chinese authorities, they continue to squeeze virtual currencies out of the country. The People's Bank of China said bitcoin and stablecoins pose a threat to financial security and social stability and has banned the provision of a range of services to companies associated with the market, including software development, rental of premises and marketing services.
At the moment, large capital is watching the migration process of miners from the PRC. And the country in which they will resume their work is of particular interest. If it's going to be the US, it's likely to bolster the industry's image in the eyes of institutionals. Especially since Crypto Head estimates that of 76 countries, the United States is the best prepared for mass adoption of digital assets. However, it is believed that miners fear the US authorities no less than the Chinese. And therefore, they can choose the countries of Central Asia - Kazakhstan, Mongolia, etc., where there are territories with a cold climate and access to relatively cheap energy resources. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, as we wrote, Kazakhstan had already passed a law on additional energy charges for cryptocurrencies in anticipation of miners.
Note that due to the bans introduced in China, the hash rate in the blockchain fell by almost 50%. This led to major changes in the complexity of the algorithm, and an equally serious increase in the profits of the remaining miners. They are now earning income, about the same as at BTC's $60,000 cost.
As for investors, they have been watching the main cryptocurrency trying to rise above the resistance of $ 36,000 for the third week. Another attempt by the bulls last week was unsuccessful again, and the BTC/USD pair was trading in the $32,500-33,500 zone by Friday night July 09.
The total crypto market capitalization has changed insignificantly over the week: from $1.358 trillion to $1.370 trillion. That being said, there has been a small flow of funds from altcoins (including ethereum) to bitcoin over the past few days. JP Morgan’s analyst Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou also noted this in an interview with CNBC. This move has reversed a trend that began in April when there was a large inflow of funds into altcoins and could mean that the bear market for BTC is coming to an end. But it is clearly premature to talk about any serious progress. This is confirmed by quotes, capitalization volumes, and readings of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is still in the Extreme Fear zone, having dropped by 1 point over the week, from 21 to 20.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. It seems that the epidemiological situation associated with the spread of new strains of COVID-19 is coming to the fore again. Risk cravings are falling and investors, fearing a repeat of last year's situation, are once again beginning to gravitate towards protective assets. Stock indices - Nasdaq, Dow Jones, S & P500 - stopped growing, going into a sideways trend. And impressive black candles appeared on their daily charts. In parallel, demand for U.S. Treasury liabilities rose: the yield on Treasuries fell to a new multi-month low, to 1.25%.
Despite the worsening epidemiological situation, the European Commission has raised its forecast for GDP growth in the Eurozone from 4.3% to 4.8% in 2021. The growth of economic activity should be influenced by the softening of quarantine measures (if it continues, of course) and the mass vaccination of the population. GDP is expected to return to pre-crisis levels as early as Q4 of this year, a quarter earlier than forecast, and this could prompt the ECB to start winding down QE programmes more quickly.
But if European inflation and GDP are growing by 2% and 4.8%, then the growth of similar American indicators is 5% and 7%, respectively. And who will start tightening monetary policy earlier, we wonder? Yes, the Fed has taken a wait-and-see, almost dovish position. But there are not so many hawks among the ECB's leadership, and its current position is more like a compromise between supporters of monetary expansion and their opponents.
Experts’ opinion on the EUR/USD pair's immediate future can also be considered a compromise, with 40% in favour of growth, 45% in favour of falling, and 15% for continuing the side trend. At the same time, the number of supporters of a weaker dollar and a stronger euro rises to 60% when you move to the forecast by the end of summer.
Among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, 70% are colored green, 30% - red. On D1, the situation is different: 70% of trend indicators look down, and the oscillator readings are a mixture of red, green and neutral gray. Graphical analysis on H4 indicates a sideways trend within the 1.1780-1.1900 channel.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1900, then 1.1975, 1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge for July is to update the May 25 high of 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The supports on the way to this target are 1.1845, 1.1800 and 1.1780.
The following events can be noted in the economic calendar for the coming week. German and US consumer market data will be released on Tuesday July 13. US Federal Reserve Chief Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak in Congress on Wednesday and Thursday, and another set of US consumer data, including retail sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will close the working week on Friday July 16;

- GBP/USD. The UK's GDP, trade and industrial production figures did not reach forecast values. And this will put some pressure on the pound. But despite this, 60% of analysts vote on the GBP/USD pair's move north.
It finished the last week, rising to the 1.3900 zone. The mid-term chart clearly shows that this level is in the central part of the 1.3700-1.4000 channel. Therefore, the pair has many chances to continue the upward movement to its upper border.
The remaining 40% of experts, in agreement with the graphical analysis on H4, believe that the British currency will not be able to break through the resistance of 1.3900 so far, including due to a new wave of COVID-19 spread in the country.
The indicators' readings are almost completely consistent with their readings for EUR/USD. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, the June Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be known on Wednesday 14 July, which is projected to rise from 2.1% to 2.2 per cent. And the next day, a portion of data on the state of the UK labour market, including claims for unemployment benefits and the country's unemployment rate, awaits us. Recall that a rise in the same indicator in the US hit the dollar on the first Friday in July. For the United Kingdom, it is expected to remain flat at 4.7%;
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- USD/JPY. It is almost impossible to bring the indicator readings for this pair to any denominator, neither on H4, nor on D1. Will it continue its upward trend, which began in early January? Will it be able to gain a foothold above 111.00? A new impetus to this movement was given after the correction on April 26, and only now the first hint of a trend breakdown and a breakout of the lower border of this channel has appeared.
We spoke above about the reasons for the strengthening of the yen last week. However, it is not possible to catch investor sentiment, as well as indicators, for the week ahead. The experts' voices are almost equally divided: 30% side with the bulls, 40% side with the bears, and 40% just shrug their shoulders.
Graphical analysis on D1 first indicates a sideways movement of the USD/JPY pair in the 109.50-111.00 trading range, and only then does it rule out the continuation of the uptrend and its breakout to 112.00.
The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision and the traditional subsequent press conference of its management may be of some interest the week ahead. Both of these events are scheduled for Friday July 16. And most likely, there will be no surprises for us, and Japan will once again reaffirm its title as an ultra-quiet haven for investors;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin's daily trading volume has dropped to its lowest level since early 2021, according to analyst firm Arcane Research. The BTC/USD pair is trying unsuccessfully to climb above the $36,000 horizon for the third week in a row. The fact that it has been trading near local lows since the end of May, of course, scares investors. A dip below the current low of $28,800 could lead to another massive sell-off and a new crypto winter.
At the same time, a number of experts interpret the current situation as a phase of accumulation according to the Wyckoff method. This means that $28,800 is the minimum of the correction (“Spring”), and a stepwise growth should be expected in the future. Wyckoff's scheme will be confirmed if bitcoin fixes above the $36,000 resistance.
- Popular cryptanalyst PlanB (609,000 subscribers) outlined the worst scenario of the main cryptocurrency movement. This expert is known for applying to bitcoin the stock-to-flow ratio (S2F) model, previously traditionally applied to commodities such as gold and silver. According to PlanB's calculations, the worst-case scenario for bitcoin in July is closing the month at $28,000. In August, this is where the worst-case closing scenario could be $47,000. According to him, the next six months will determine whether, by the end of the bull race, BTC will actually be able to reach the six-digit range and, as a result, reach the $288,000 mark.
It should be noted that the forecasts of the institutions look much more modest. For example, CNBC conducted a Wall Street survey of nearly 100 investment directors, financial strategists and portfolio managers. 44% of them believe that bitcoin will close 2021 with a price below $30,000. 25% of respondents believe that the rate of the first cryptocurrency at that time will reach $40,000. A similar proportion of respondents chose the $50,000 level, with only 6% predicting a rise to $60,000.
Discussing the results, the channel's hosts agreed with the short-term outlook in general, noting that even $30,000 for the end of the year would alleviate many of the concerns of market participants by setting a long-term bottom.
While assessing altcoin prospects, many experts, including Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency bank founder Michael Novogratz, say that Ethereum may well weaken bitcoin in the future and become the foundation for pricing in the market. BTC became popular as a means of saving. But if you sum up the number of projects and directions working on the ETH blockchain, the advantage of Ethereum becomes obvious. Stablecoins, De-Fi, and NFT tokens work on its blockchain. The ETH platform has the potential to become the foundation for the upcoming Web 3.0. However, there is one issue: Ethereum is facing stiff competition from Solana, Terra and other ecosystems in this direction.
Experts from Goldman Sachs, one of the largest investment banks, also believe that today ethereum is the cryptocurrency with the highest real use potential that can overtake bitcoin. But at the same time, the bank's experts are also confident that neither bitcoin, nor ethereum, nor any other cryptocurrency will overtake gold in popularity in the near future. Because of its high volatility, digital assets cannot be accepted as a safe haven by investors, and therefore lose out in direct competition with this precious metal.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 14, 2021, 06:19:13 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Increased regulatory oversight could benefit the cryptocurrency industry, said Jihan Wu, billionaire and co-founder of Bitmain. In his view, regulation “cuts out attackers” and improves the industry's reputation in a rapid growth environment.
He also suggested that more active interaction of representatives of the cryptocurrency industry with the authorities could bring positive results as well. The billionaire cited Singapore, where one of his companies is based, as an example. According to Wu, the government of this country is taking a “reasonable” stance on digital assets, allowing Singapore to become a “hub for crypto innovation”.

- Bitcoin ransomware received more than $33 million in cryptocurrency in 2021, according to Ransomwhere data. 2This cybersecurity-focused service collects ransomware attacks and tracks payments from affected users to ransomware.
According to Ransomwhere, REvil (Sodinokibi) from the eponymous hacker group has become the largest ransomware in 2021. Its victims paid the extortionists over $11.3 million. In second place is Netwalker (Mailto), whose developers have received more than $5.7 million. The amount of cumulative damage could grow significantly if the REvil group receives the $70 million they demanded from victims in early July.

- Galaxy Digital cryptobank founder Mike Novogratz said in a commentary on CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken a leading position in the bear market, whose origins lie in Asia. “We see Asia selling it [bitcoin] and the US buying it back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War we are getting into."
Earlier, Novogratz called the exodus of miners from China a “big plus,” and said that the PRC's repressive policies would not prevent the development of the crypto industry.

- Albany Engineering Corp's hydroelectric plant, located in New York, USA, provides a profit margin on bitcoin mining three times higher than on the sale of energy. The hydroelectric power station was built in 1897, almost 125 years ago, and it is one of the oldest operating renewable energy facilities.
According to the top managers of the plant, a years-long litigation with the distribution network regarding tariffs has forced the company to consider alternative sources of revenue. True, the management doubts the long-term potential of the cryptocurrency, so translates coins into dollars immediately as they come in.

- As a result of an operation carried out by the New Zealand police, attackers... stole $45,000 worth of cryptocurrency from its bitcoin wallet. According to the New Zealand Herald, law enforcement officers conducted an online investigation into money laundering but fell victim to cyber scams themselves as a result.
The cryptocurrency was acquired in 2020 and was intended for “controlled purchasing”. But something went wrong, and the police lost control over the course of this special operation. Two internal investigations have been conducted into the theft, but no breaches of standard procedures have been identified.

- Legendary investor Bill Miller, in an interview with Market Insider, called bitcoin the best asset for protecting against inflation. The main cryptocurrency emerged in response to the 2008 crisis to be free from government control and manipulation, Miller explained. Also, the investor agrees with the view that bitcoin is digital gold because it is more convenient to use than any precious metal. As for the high volatility of digital assets, Miller believes this is the price that needs to be paid for the benefits.
Bill Miller's Miller Value Partners fund became one of the best in hedge fund history in 2019, with a return of 119%. The investor started purchasing bitcoins a few years ago, when they cost $300 per coin. Much of the fund's capital was earned from the growth in the value of the first cryptocurrency.

- On July 12, two transactions were recorded to transfer 740 bitcoins, which were motionless on the wallet of a certain holder since May 2012. It was reported by analytical service Whale Alert. Nine years ago, the value of these coins was $3.7k. (at $5 per BTC), and $26.1 million at the time of the transaction. That is, the value of digital coins has increased 7000 times over 9 years.
A similar move was recorded in February 2021. Then a large bitcoin holder transferred 100 coins to other addresses, which had been in his wallet without moving since June 2010. Their total cost was only about $8, and it reached $5 million at the time of the transaction: the price increased 622,000 times over 11 years.

- Bitcoin is ready for a major price movement, says analyst Will Clemente. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from a narrow range.
As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to the analyst, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
Clemente also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. And this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.

- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak called bitcoin "the most amazing mathematical miracle," according to El Sol de Mexico. He also believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is more expensive than gold, since its emission is limited.
Wozniak has been a staunch supporter of bitcoin for years. He even stated in June 2018 that he sees BTC as the single world currency and believes in its longevity. However, the 70-year-old tech entrepreneur himself does not personally invest in bitcoin, and launched his own crypto project called Efforce a few months ago.

- Bitcoin has reached a level where it can resume the rally. This opinion is shared by Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone. According to him, the cryptocurrency is ready to resume growth towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter.
The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."

- According to Reuters, the Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) uses... faeces to generate electricity. Students are paid Ggool digital currency for each toilet visit.
One of the professors of the institute developed an environmentally friendly toilet BeeVi. It is connected to a laboratory that uses excreta to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute, including a boiler.

- British IT engineer James Howells threw a 7.5K BTC hard drive into the trash eight years ago, messing it up with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property, but was refused. Now Howells came up with a new search plan.
According to his calculations, he will need at least 12 months for the operation. This will be a "large-scale search," the engineer claims, which will not use "buckets and shovels" but the most modern technology. “We have a system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence that is trained to recognize objects that are similar in size and density to a hard drive,” Howells explained.
All of this will require a lot of financial investment, but one of the hedge funds has promised to cover all equipment costs in exchange for a share of bitcoins that can be found in the landfill. It is expected that the researchers will have to sort through 300-400 thousand tons of waste. The cost of 7,500 BTC is about $246,000,000 at the time of this writing.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Tontatta on July 15, 2021, 02:23:28 PM
Great news.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 18, 2021, 02:04:08 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 19 - 23, 2021


First, a review of last week’s events:

- EUR/USD. Macroeconomic data continued to arrive last week, indicating a recovery in the US economy and labor market. Inflation figures released on Tuesday July 13 were well above forecasts. ?he consumer price index increased by 0.9% ?n June, and by 5.4% and on an annualized basis, which is the highest growth rate since 2008. The core index, which excludes energy and food prices, has posted record growth since 1991, at 4.5% year on year.
The number of primary claims for jobless benefits dropped by 26,000 to 360,000 from July 04 to 10. This is the lowest since March 20, when the coronavirus pandemic struck the economy first. Earlier this month, the US Department of Labor released data showing that the number of jobs in the country increased over the past month by 850,000 (up 583,000 in May).
The US import price index rose 1% in June, while import prices excluding oil rose 0.7% in June. The Fed-New York manufacturing index rose from 17.4 to 43.0 for the month, also well above the forecast. According to the Federal Reserve data released on Thursday July 15, industrial production in the US as a whole increased by 0.4% in June compared to May, which also indicates a good pace of recovery in the US economy.
By “pre-covid” logic, all this data would have strengthened the dollar seriously. However, it has risen against the euro by just about 50 points in the past four weeks. And the pair has generally been in a sideways corridor with a minimal dominance of bears for the last two weeks: it traded in the range of 1.1780-1.1895 from July 05 to 09, and in the 1.1770-1.1880 range from July 12 to 16.
These figures fully confirmed the compromise scenario presented by the experts. As for the forecast of graphical analysis, it turned out to be almost perfect. Recall that it indicated a sideways trend within 1.1780-1.1900 on H4.
So why isn't the American currency growing? The reason lies in the hesitancy and doubts that still bedevil the US Fed. The head of this regulator Jerome Powell said speaking on July 14 at the Financial Services Committee of the US Congress that his department would not rush to tighten credit and financial policy and reduce the purchase of assets within the framework of QE. He repeated roughly the same thing the next day, in front of the Senate Banking Committee.
Powell acknowledged that inflation is growing faster than expected, and if it goes beyond acceptable limits, monetary policy will have to be tightened ahead of schedule. But for now, the economy is “still far” from set goals. The rise in inflation, like many other factors, can be temporary. But after they disappear, they can be replaced by others. Now, the spread of the new COVID-19 strain supports the dollar against commodity currencies, but there is no telling how the markets will behave in the future. It is unclear how the early curtailment of the fiscal stimulus program will affect their mood as well. 
As a result, having given all this portion of doubts to the congressmen, Powell assured them that the Fed was certainly monitoring the situation closely and would respond promptly to its changes. However, the head of the central bank was unable to influence investor sentiment in any way (or perhaps did not want to), as a result of which the EUR/USD pair remained within a narrow trading range and completed the five-day period at 1.1805;

- GBP/USD. The pair failed to gain a foothold above the resistance of 1.3900 over the past week. As with EUR/USD, bears had a slight advantage, helped by positive economic statistics from the USA. Great Britain could not please with anything like that. And although the number of applications for unemployment benefits for the month decreased by 24% - from 151,400 to 114,800, the unemployment rate remained at the same level of 4.8% (instead of the forecast drop to 4.7%). Investors are also worried about the onset of a new wave of COVID-19, due to which the number of new infections here has exceeded 50,000 per day. As a result, despite the fact that the bulls managed to keep the pair in the 1.3800-1.3900 channel all week, its lower border was broken on Friday, July 16 and the pair finished at 1.3760;

- USD/JPY. It was not possible to understand the sentiment of investors, as well as indicators, last week. The experts' voices were almost equally divided: 30% sided with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 40% just shrugged their shoulders. The inconsistency in the indicators' readings did not allow bringing their readings to any common denominator either. And, as the past five days have shown, it was this lack of forecast that proved to be the most accurate prediction: the USD/JPY pair drew a virtually perfect sinusoid.
As expected, the Bank of Japan did not present any surprises on Friday, July 16, and did not surprise anyone with its inaction, once again confirming the country's reputation as a super-safe haven for investors. Bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda did not utter a single new intriguing word during the press conference once again. Investors knew very well without him that the Japanese economy remains in a difficult situation, but the level of activity will increase as the population is vaccinated.
The balance of power between the dollar and the yen was not affected by the discrepancy in the macroeconomic indicators of the United States and Japan. As a result, the pair ended the week almost where it started, at 110.05;

- cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was ripping up in late June to early July, wishing to break through the $36,000 resistance. However, none of the attempts made by the bulls were successful. Now the initiative has passed to the bears, and we saw the opposite picture last week: the desire to drop the BTC/USD pair below the psychologically important level of $30,000, after which another wave of mass sales may follow.
Trading volumes on major crypto exchanges including Coinbase, Kraken, Binance, and Bitstamp fell more than 40% in June, according to CryptoCompare. The decline in volumes was due to falling prices and lower volatility. But not only. The absence of large investors, most of whom are now engaged in traditional markets, trying to understand the situation with the coronavirus and the accompanying steps of regulators, is also affecting.
At the time of this writing, the flagship currency is held in the $31,000-32,000 region. And according to Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz, this is because of the USA. He stated in a comment to CNBC that the US cryptocurrency community has taken an important defensive line in a market that has its bearish origins in Asia. “We see Asia selling bitcoin and the US buying back. China has declared war on the crypto industry as part of the broader Cold War that we are getting into."
To be honest, it is not yet clear whether it is good or bad that the crypto industry has grown to become a prominent part of the economic policies of the world's leading powers. Time will tell. Of course, Mike Novogratz can consider the exodus of miners from China to be a "big plus" and say that Beijing's repressive policies will not hinder the development of the industry. But judging by the charts, so far the advantage is on China's side. Many investors and traders prefer to stay out of the market for fear of further falls in quotes. Average daily trading turnover is now 76% below peak levels when the price was above $60,000. The total capitalization of the crypto market declined by nearly $100 billion in seven days, from $1.370 trillion to $1.275 trillion. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index cannot get out of the Extreme Fear zone for several weeks now, fluctuating in the range from 20 to 22 points. (Recall that the market sentiment looked more optimistic a month ago, and the average value of the Index was 33 points).


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the views of a number of experts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. We talked about the doubts prevailing at the Fed in the first part of the review. In such a situation, the rare unity of analysts looks all the more surprising. Thus, 75% of them were voted for a stronger dollar and a decrease in EUR/USD, 25% for the side trend, and, respectively, 0% for the euro to rise. Perhaps the principle "if you are not sure, buy dollar" worked.
According to 39 out of 41 Reuters experts, the Fed will curtail its monthly asset purchase program by $120 billion before the end of 2022. Three of them believe that this will happen very soon, this year already. The number of those who expect an interest rate increase in 2022, and not in 2023, is also growing. Therefore, the consensus forecast for QE completion is in the next year, which supports the US dollar. The new wave of COVID-19 is also playing on the side of the American currency, recalling that it was during the pandemic that the dollar gained great importance as a reserve currency.
It should be noted that with the transition to the forecast by the end of summer, the number of supporters of a weakening dollar and a strengthening of the euro among experts increases from 0% to 50%.
Graphical analysis on H4 still indicates a sideways trend within the channel 1.1780-1.1900. There is a mixture of red, green and neutral gray colors among the trend indicators and oscillators on H4, but the situation is different on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators look down.
The nearest target of the bulls is 1.1880-1.1900, then 1.1975-1.2000, 1.2050 and 1.2150. The challenge before the end of summer is to update the high of May 25 1.2265. The bears' task is to test the March low of 1.1700. The nearest support on the way to this target is 1.1780.
The economic calendar for the coming week can note the ECB's interest rate decision on Thursday July 22. The rate is highly likely to remain unchanged, at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the bank's management and its commentary on monetary policy is of much greater interest. According to Reuters, the ECB will have to decide at its meeting on Thursday what the new inflation target will mean for its future course. If the regulator is serious about raising inflation to 2% (compared to the previous target - close, but below 2%), then the large-scale purchase of assets is likely to continue. But the "hawks" insist on curtailing incentives, and therefore investors will be interested in whether the head of the Bank, Christine Lagarde, will be able to achieve a certain compromise.
The Markit PMI values in Germany and the Eurozone will become known the day after the ECB meeting, on July 23, on the basis of which it will be possible to get an impression of the pace of the European economic recovery;

- GBP/USD. Experts are a little more optimistic about the future of the British currency than the future of the euro. So, 25% of specialists vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair in the near future (as opposed to 0% for EUR/USD). The same is higher at the month and a half interval as well: 65% are bull supporters (the euro has 50%).
As for the technical analysis, there are only faint hints of a possible rise in the pair. 100% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators are colored red on H4 (the remaining 25% are in the oversold zone). 85% of trend indicators and 75% of oscillators look south on D1.
Support levels are 1.3740, 1.3700, 1.3670 and 1.3600, resistance levels are 1.3800, 1.3840 and 1.3900. The further target of the bulls is the upper border of the medium-term channel 1.3700-1.4000;


- USD/JPY. As in the case with the previous two pairs, in this case, the majority of experts (70%) expect the dollar to strengthen and a new attempt by the pair to gain a foothold above the level of 111.00. Such a forecast comes into a certain contradiction with the indications of technical analysis on D1. Here 65% of oscillators and 80% of trend indicators are colored red.
As for the graphical analysis, it draws the movement of the pair in the range of 109.70-110.40 on H4, with a subsequent fall to support at 109.30. The range of fluctuations is somewhat wider on D1: first, the fall to the zone 108.65-109.30, and then the rise to the resistance 111.00 and further growth to the July 02 high, 111.65;   

- cryptocurrencies. We provided the key estimates of the digital market over the last period in the first part of the review. And they don't look rosy at all. It may be too early to talk about the onset of "crypto winter", but it is quite possible to call the current situation "crypto freezes". The BTC/USD chart continues to form a triangle with downward resistance and horizontal support around $31,000. 65% of analysts vote for its breakthrough during the coming month. That being said, according to some experts, if the bulls fail to hold that front line, we stand a lot of chances to see the pair in the region of $10,000 by the end of the year.
But, as usual, there is an opposite point of view as well. So, for example, analyst Will Clemente believes that bitcoin is already ready for a major price movement. He published a chart in his Twitter (136 thousand subscribers) with an indicator, which speaks of a possible imminent exit of the price of the first cryptocurrency from the narrow range. As to the direction of the bitcoin rate, Clemente wrote that he was optimistic. According to him, the market is now in the accumulation stage, and large players continue to actively buy the first cryptocurrency. "Whale" stocks increased by 65,429 BTC just last week. According to Clemente, there may be a shortage of supply of the main cryptocurrency in the near future, since large players often acquire assets for long-term purposes.
The expert also stressed that the growth in the number of cryptocurrency users continues. Whereas their number usually decreases after the peak in prices. But now there is no fall, and this is also an argument in favor of the upcoming growth of BTC.
Another specialist, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, agrees with Clemente's opinion. According to him, the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a level where it can resume its rally towards $100,000. "Bitcoin is poised to return to a bullish trend in the second half of the year, and crude oil is ready to resume a bearish trend," McGlone wrote on Twitter. The expert is confident that the growth of the cryptocurrency will "have serious macroeconomic consequences" this time. It is worth noting, however, that this is not the first time McGlone predicts a sharp rise in digital assets. For example, he announced in early February that the volatility of bitcoin can increase the gap between its price and gold "hundreds of times."
No one knows yet which of the predictions will turn out to be correct. But there are a couple of ways to make money on cryptocurrency without spending a dime to buy it. However, both of these methods can be classified as "dirty" business. And this in our traditional heading crypto-life hacks.
First, you can help British IT engineer James Howells sort through rubbish. The fact is that this wonderful person threw a hard drive with 7,500 BTC into rubbish eight years ago, confusing it with another device. He then asked local authorities for permission to excavate a local dump to find his property but was refused. And now Howells has developed a new search plan using a super system with multiple conveyor belts, X-ray scanners and artificial intelligence. However, the implementation of this project requires significant financial costs. And if suddenly someone helps an engineer find the disk in a simple way, with the help of a shovel, he will surely share his new-found wealth. Today, his bitcoins are worth more than $230 million, and it is necessary to sort out "only" 300-400 thousand tons of waste.
Another way of “dirty” earnings was told by Reuters. According to this agency, students at Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology (South Korea) make money from... going to the toilet. For each visit, they are paid a certain amount in digital currency Ggool.
One of the institute's professors has developed a plant that uses student waste to produce biogas. According to the scientist's calculations, a person produces about 500 grams of feces every day, which can be converted into 50 liters of methane. This amount of gas generates 0.5 kW of electricity, which is equal to the cost of a car to cover a distance of 1.2 km.
The science Initiative brings students up to 10 Ggool per day. The coin is accepted as payment in shops on campus. And the energy produced with the help of students powers a number of devices on the territory of the institute.
(https://i.imgur.com/RLu3NxW.jpg)


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 21, 2021, 03:44:06 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/quaDZfa.jpg)

- Mastercard, in collaboration with financial platforms Evolve Bank & Trust, Paxos and Circle, is launching a new program that will allow more banks and cryptocurrency companies to offer plastic and virtual cards to those wishing to “spend their digital assets wherever Mastercard is accepted”. This is stated in a press release by the company. It also noted that cryptocurrency providers are now having difficulty converting cryptocurrency into fiat. The new initiative will address this problem.

- Half of the fintech and cryptocurrency experts expect bitcoin to surpass fiat and national digital currencies by 2040. Finder.com reached such conclusions in their survey. Moreover, a third of them believe that the so-called "hyperbitcoinization" will come by 2035 or earlier.
Optimists have not lost faith in the favorable prospects of the first cryptocurrency. They believe that El Salvador's acceptance of bitcoin as a means of payment will set an example for other emerging economies. However, the second half of those surveyed questioned bitcoin's ability to become the dominant asset in global finance.

 - Professional boxing legend Mike Tyson invited Twitter followers to choose between bitcoin and Ethereum. The discussion was joined by the head of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, who said that he spent over a thousand hours thinking about this issue. He ended up choosing the first cryptocurrency. “I bought $2.9 billion worth of bitcoin because I consider it the future of digital ownership,” said the head of MicroStrategy.
Other representatives of the crypto industry joined the discussion. For example, OkeX Bitcoin exchange head Jay Hao responded with a meme with the text “You don't have to choose if you have both.”

- The Chinese cryptocurrency community has been recently actively discussing a video in which a roller is crushing a large number of ASIC miners. Some members of the community associated what was happening with the recent bans by the PRC authorities. Others have suggested that the action takes place in Latin America. However, it was later revealed that Malaysia's law enforcement agents destroyed the equipment. A local portal cited a statement from the Miri County Police Chief, according to whom 1,069 bitcoin miners worth $1.25 million were destroyed. The equipment was seized in six rCorporate debt between February and April.

- Major bitcoin investor Tim Draper hasn't changed his optimism about cryptocurrency No.1, despite the sharp drop in its price. According to the billionaire, BTC's price will reach $250,000 by early 2023 at the latest. It is worth noting that Draper has previously managed to make accurate predictions. So, in 2014, he predicted that bitcoin would break the $10,000 level within three years.
Draper sees a whole set of financial functions in bitcoin, so he believes that this cryptocurrency will spread in countries with both developed and emerging economies.

- Data obtained by news site Finbold shows that the popularity of cryptocurrency applications for iOS and Android has grown 2.6 times over the year. They now dominate the top 50 asset management apps, surpassing similar stock trading programs in the USA. The number of downloads of applications for transactions with cryptocurrencies in the AppStore has already exceeded 18 million in 2021, in Google Play - 15 million.

- David Tice, co-founder of hedge fund Morand-Tice Capital Management, is confident that this is a "very dangerous period" for owning bitcoin and other financial assets. “The market is very overvalued in terms of future profits. Debt is growing at an unprecedented rate. The government bond market, where rates are falling sharply, is behaving very strangely,” he said in an interview with CNBC.
Tice has earned the reputation of being a bearish investor on bullish cycles. Thus, he sold his "bear" fund Prudent Bear Fund during the 2008 crisis. Now the financier is confident of the inevitability of a collapse in markets, although he acknowledges that accurately predicting the moment of the next major pullback is very difficult. He urges investors to weigh the risks as, in an attempt to earn 3-5% in the short term, they are threatening themselves with a 40% pullback. Especially, he believes, this is true for stocks of big tech companies such as Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet.
The cryptocurrency investment is described by Tice as “very dangerous.” “We had a position on bitcoin when it was worth $10,000,” the investor admitted. - Nevertheless, when it went up to $60,000, we decided that this rate has outlived itself. Concerns from central banks and the Bank for International Settlements have grown strongly lately, with all of them giving strong negative comments. I think it's very dangerous to hold bitcoin today."
Tice himself is now Currency carry trade on the rise in the price of precious metals and shares of companies from the mining sector.

- A crowdfunding campaign for a documentary about cryptocurrency Ethereum and its co-founder Vitalik Buterin raised $1,900,000 on the Mirror platform in just three days. The goal was to raise an amount of 750 ETH (about $1.37 million at the time of writing). However, 662 users donated 1,036 coins. The most generous of them will be credited. The film titled “Ethereum: The Infinite Garden,” is scheduled to premiere in winter 2023. Optimist studio is working on it.

- More than 200 people from about 20 countries have lost about $70 million due to scams related to the OEN cryptocurrency. According to The Standard, the scammers, posing as attractive Chinese women on dating sites, urged their fans to invest in this cryptocurrency through the Bitfex.pro and Bitfex.vip exchanges, which are currently no longer working.
The "girls", who were very difficult to refuse, deprived some especially gullible clients of almost all their funds. So, one client in love lost $100,900, and after he ran out of money, the "beauty" broke off relations with him.
Given that the IP addresses of the sites changed each time, the Hong Kong police admitted that the investigation was at an impasse, as the cybercriminals left no leads.

- According to data from BitinFoCharts, one of the bitcoin megakits controls about 144,000 coins in 18 wallets, each containing exactly 8,000 BTC. The total value of the coins is currently more than $4.3 billion. It bought a further 29,880 BTC for about $950 million last weekend of July 16-18, making it clear that big players continue to accumulate during the fall in the price of the main cryptocurrency.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 28, 2021, 05:43:14 PM
Super Lottery: NordFX Gives Away 100,000 USD to Traders

(https://i.imgur.com/VaWb2XX.jpg)

The $100,000 Super Lottery was launched by the brokerage company NordFX among its clients on April 1. The name speaks for itself: 100 cash prizes of $500, $1,000, $2,500 and a super prize of $ 20,000 will be drawn by the year end.

It is quite easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner of the prize money.

Unlike trader contests, there is no need for a lottery participant to show exceptional trading results. In this case, both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning. And they can either use the received prize money in further trading, or take it out without any restrictions.

70 prizes of $500 each, 20 prizes of $1,000 each, 10 prizes of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000 will be drawn. The draws will be held on October 1, 2021 and January 3, 2022. The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 1, 2021. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

For more details, visit the NordFX website
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 30, 2021, 05:03:33 PM
Forex Trading Robots: What and How Effective They Are


Traders can use not only their knowledge in their work, but also various computer programs: auxiliary scripts, as well as algorithms that can give recommendations and even open and close transactions on their own. These automated trading systems are called Forex robots. This article will discuss them in detail, as well as talk about the types and how to use them.

What is a Forex Robot?

This is a program code that operates according to the algorithm installed in it. There are several types of Forex robots from the point of view of the trading system embedded in them. They can work on the basis of indicators or a specific money and risk management strategy. A very large number of free Forex trading robots operate on the basis of the well-known Martingale strategy.

How does a Forex Trading Robot work? It is pretty simple. In fact, it is an automated strategy that does all the same things that the trader would do, but only without the participation of the latter.

Suppose the robot is based on the Relative Strength Index RSI indicator and operates on the principle of getting out of the overbought and oversold areas (70% and 30% of the indicator scale, respectively). As soon as such a situation occurs on the chart, the robot opens a transaction on its own (Fig.1). A trader would do the same if they worked with such an indicator.
(https://i.imgur.com/yL1PwG9.png)

Such a computer assistant program can include either one single indicator or several similar algorithms. For example, the MACD indicator or the famous Stochastic Oscillator can be used in addition to the moving average. In this case, the robot's algorithm will be configured to receive signals based on two indicators, and trades will be opened only when these two indicators give the same commands, for example, to open a long position.

Main Types of Trading Robots

There are two main types of trading systems. The first one is semi-automatic, which only gives recommendations. That is, the trader needs to make their own decisions. The second one works completely autonomously. A trader launches it on their trading platform, and such a system analyzes the market and makes decisions by itself.

It's hard to say which approach is better. Each of these types has both advantages and disadvantages. For example, semi-automatic advisors (with manual opening of transactions) do not provide the trader with complete freedom and require the presence of the terminal at the moment the signal appears.

Fully automated trading bots work on the "plug and forget" principle, but there are also drawbacks here. Given that such robots are programmed to work with a certain set of tools, they cannot take into account, for example, the influence of fundamental factors on the market. And this can lead to losses from the work of such an advisor.

Some Recommendations for Working with Automated Trading Strategies

We have already noted above that robots that work completely autonomously have both their pros and cons. At least, it is not recommended to leave such algorithms unattended for a long time. Below we will give some useful tips for those planning to work with such bots.

1. Take a closer look at the trading system underlying the robot.

If you purchase an expert advisor or download it for free on the Internet, you need to carefully study what lies at the heart of such a trading bot. The fact is that the overwhelming majority of Forex robots are based on the so-called "martingale". What is that? This is a money management method that came to trading from stabilizing speculation.

It is based on the fact that every time you close a losing trade, you need to double the size of the next position. For example, if you opened a trade with 0.1 lot, then in case of a loss, the next trade would open with 0.2 lots. Further, if this trade has not made a profit, the next one will open in the size of 0.4 lots, and so on until you close the transaction at a profit.

As a result of this approach, the very first profitable trade will allow you to cover all losses and make a profit. But the risks of such a strategy are great. The fact is that the trader's deposit is always limited. If there is not enough money to open the next position, the trader will lose all the money that they invested in the formation of martingale steps earlier.

It should be noted here that the settings of the absolute majority of Forex trading robots using this trading strategy allow the trader to change the lot increase coefficient. And it can be set as more than 2.0 or less, for example, 1.5. That is, if you opened the first trade with 0.1 lots, then in case of a loss, the next trade will be opened with 0.15 lots, and so on.

2. Pre-settings.

Before giving the robot the opportunity to trade independently on the financial market, it is necessary to configure its main parameters. This applies to both functionality in terms of strategy, and in terms of capital and risk management. (One example of such settings was given above).

The strategy settings can be identical to the indicator settings. Some expert advisors have the option to regulate the algorithms they use. For example, you can set what period of the Moving Average will be used in the robot for trend trading.

As for money and risk management, most automated trading systems have such settings. For example, you will be able to set the robot software at which distance to put stop loss or take profit. And whether to place them at all. Also, the size of the lot with which the bot will work in the financial markets is determined. Some expert advisors set additional parameters, such as maximum deviation or spread when opening positions in order to avoid sending an order to a broker at a disadvantageous price. You can also limit the maximum number of simultaneously opened positions to reduce the risk of losing capital.

The number of settings in Forex trading robots can vary significantly: one computer program can have two or three of them, another - several dozens. The strategy tester, which is built into the MetaTrader-4 (MT4) trading platform, which NordFX brokerage company offers to its clients, will help to deal with them.

3. Paid VS Free Trading Robots.

Today, you can find both paid and free advisors on the Internet. Many traders prefer the second option, since in this case there are no additional financial costs associated with their purchase.

The advantage of free Forex trading robots is that they really do not require any investment from the trader. However, there is one important nuance here that must be considered. When choosing a free Forex trading robot, you most often do not know the developer and the trading system that underlies such an algorithm. Therefore, in order to understand how it works, calculate its pros and cons, determine the presence or absence of errors in a computer program, you will need to test the work of such an assistant trader in the MT4 strategy tester, and then trade with it on a free demo account.

Paid trading robots are distinguished by a number of advantages, including full technical support from developers, a flexible system of settings and a history of their work with various parameters and trading instruments. In some cases, developers will be ready to make adjustments to the operation of this trading bot, recommended by the Forex trader.

How Forex Trading Robots Are Created

The first thing to know is that a trading robot may not work on all trading platforms. The most popular in the world, as already mentioned, is the MetaTrader-4 platform (or trading terminal), which uses a special programming language MQL4, with which thousands of programs for automatic Forex trading have already been created.

On the MetaTrader-4 platform, a trader will find special tabs with which they will get access to a huge number of special scripts, indicators and robots. One can buy them, rent them or just take them to test. You will also have hundreds of experienced programmers at your service, ready to create an automated trading system according to the algorithm specified by the trader. At the same time, it is very important to correctly draw up a technical task so that programmers do exactly what you expect to receive from them.

Myths about trading robots

There are several myths that are actively spreading on the Internet. We decided to dispel them and give objective information to those who want to try using trading robots in their trading. Here are the most interesting points:

1. Brokers are against the use of trading robots.

That's not true. For example, broker NordFX does not in any way prevent its clients from using such automated solutions. Moreover, robots have absolutely no effect on the relationship between the client and the company. The use of Forex trading robots is completely legal and does not constitute a violation of the Client Agreement.

2. Only paid robots give results.

It's not true either. And very often a free program can turn out to be no worse, if not better, than the one for which the owner asks hundreds or thousands of dollars. Moreover, it is not at all excluded that this "super-expensive", "super-professional" and "super-profitable" robot was stolen from real developers by hacking, or is simply an exact copy of a well-known, outdated model.

Therefore, once again, before using or acquiring any robot, it is necessary to carefully examine its “stuffing” and understand how it works.

3. Robots free the trader completely from having to make any decisions.

This is a false statement. A Forex trader tests and sets up the robot before launch anyway. Moreover, it is recommended to carefully monitor how the bot is trading and in case of a change in the market situation, either temporarily suspend the work or make the appropriate changes to the settings.

So, is it worth using trading robots in trading? This question is completely individual and depends on your preferences, experience, knowledge, availability of free time and the characteristics of your psyche. Definitely, the use of robots does not guarantee success, but the fact is that they can provide serious help in the work of the trader.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 03, 2021, 05:47:25 PM
NordFX Trader Earned Over USD 5.5 Million in July


(https://i.imgur.com/930rPxY.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in July.

The most impressive result was a trader from India, account No.1566XXX, with a profit of USD 5,114,045. But he did not stop there, adding to this multimillion-dollar profit another half a million dollars, or rather USD 463,953, which he earned on his second account opened with NordFX. Thus, the total income of this client amounted to USD 5,577,998 in just one month and was obtained thanks to transactions in pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF), Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD) and a number of other currencies.

The pound helped another Indian trader as well (account No.1569XXX), who came in second with a result of USD 318,398 and used practically the same Forex pairs as trading instruments.

The British currency may well be called the hit of the month, since a client from China (account No.1397XXX), who was third with a profit of USD 179,327, rose to the podium thanks to transactions in GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading in July, the largest increase of 164% was shown by the signal with the name claiming to be the top: BangBigBossTop1. If you look at the history of this signal, you can see that May, the first month of its life, was unprofitable, and then the signal went into plus and showed an increase of 398% for two summer months. At the same time, the highest drawdown on the account reached 55%, which would attribute it to high-income and high-risk signals.

The EAs for Life signal also attracts attention, showing a yield of 1207% since November 2020. The signal was generating stable profits for eight out of nine months of its life. However, May turned out to be extremely unsuccessful for it, the drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk.

Those investors who prefer small stable profits with minimal risk can pay attention to the COEX.Investments-Treis3 signal: about 5.5% gain in July with a maximum drawdown of only 1%. This signal has only one drawback so far: it is still very Newbie trader and has existed since June 05, 2021.

- the PAMM service also has a lot of offers for investors who prefer low or moderate risk. For example, the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA increased his capital by 34% since January 2021 (5.3% in July) with a drawdown of less than 15%. And the capital gain under the management of TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 in four months was 18.4% with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the NordFX IB-partners, the TOP-3 was headed by a representative from India (account No.1504XXX), who received USD 58,960 as a commission.

His colleague from the Middle East (account No.1569XXX) came in second, earning USD 10,405.

The third place went to a partner from Vietnam (account No. 1551XXX) with a result of USD 8,053


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 04, 2021, 05:16:21 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/5aPCxDx.jpg)

- Bitcoin has the potential to become the "property of the future" that everyone, starting from small investors to big tech companies and governments, will be able to possess. This opinion was expressed by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor in an interview with Bloomberg TV.
The top manager noted that his company's bet on the first cryptocurrency was the embodiment of "a strategy with the greatest growth potential and the least risk." "For some, diversification is the purchase of other cryptocurrencies or shares. For us, bitcoin is the same diversification. We see a future in which digital gold will become the basis of technological innovation in Apple, Amazon and Facebook and will take place on the balance sheets of corporations, cities, states and countriess," the billionaire explained.

- The Legislative Assembly of El Salvador adopted a law in June recognizing bitcoin as an official means of payment in the country. It will come into force on September 7, 2021. Analysts at Bank of America, one of the largest financial institutions in the United States, believe that such a step can give this country a number of serious advantages.
The bank's experts noted that the country's decision to recognize cryptocurrency as legal tender could potentially reduce the cost of remittances from abroad, which account for almost a quarter of El Salvador's GDP. This can positively affect the incomes of the country's citizens.
The analysts have called the democratization of financial services another advantage of the introduction of bitcoin, since approximately 70% of the adult population of the country does not have bank accounts. El Salvador can also attract direct foreign investment flows, becoming a major cryptocurrency mining center similar to Iceland.

- The animated show Stoner Cats, launched by Hollywood actress of Ukrainian origin Mila Kunis, attracted 3647 ETH (more than $9 million at the time of writing) in 35 minutes of the token sale. A collection of digital cats was put up for sale at a price of 0.35 ETH per "animal". The proceeds from the sale will be used to finance the new series.
Due to the hype, the cost of commissions in the Ethereum network has increased. And the crypto community joked that "cats have once again "clogged" the network, hinting at the situation with the game CryptoKitties.

- According to the latest data of the analytical resource Glassnode, more and more investors have been recently investing in the world's main cryptocurrency. In particular, a sharp jump in the total number of active bitcoin addresses was registered at the end of July. The increase in the indicator was about 30% in just a week. And the purses of "whales" accumulated 9.23 million BTC for the first time in history.
Glassnode experts focused on such an indicator as "Entities" for higher reliability of data. It does not take into account each bitcoin wallet separately but considers users (individuals and institutionals) controlling clusters of network addresses.
Glassnode explains these positive dynamics by the recent growth of the bitcoin rate. Its price has been consistently strengthening since July 21, and it managed again to reach a height of $42,500 on August 1. (However, at the time of writing, BTC has already rolled back below $38,000).

- A trader from South Korea lost more than $500,000 when trying to buy BTC, AsiaOne reports. According to the publication, he arranged a personal meeting with a bitcoin seller in a southern district of Hong Kong. However, four criminalss were waiting for him at the meeting place. Threatening with a knife, they took away from the trader a bag in which there were 3 million Hong Kong dollars (about $523,000). The man was injured In the attack and was taken to a local hospital. Law enforcement officers have not yet been able to find the criminals.
According to AsiaOne, this is the second robbery in Hong Kong this year when trying to buy cryptocurrency. A 22-year-old local resident was robbed of 2 million Hong Kong dollars in June. And it is quite likely that this is the work of the same gang.

- A popular cryptocurrency analyst under the nickname Jack Sparrow believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new wave of growth. This will be the fifth and final bullish season in the current market cycle.
The analyst builds on previous cycles of 2013 and 2017 and also uses Elliot's wave theory. This method of technical analysis is based on the psychology of the masses and the cyclicality of the market. According to the theory, the fifth wave of growth is usually the largest. Then the trend changes for the opposite.
Jack Sparrow believes that the bitcoin rate can grow tenfold in the long run. As for Ethereum, it is now in the accumulation phase and is also preparing for growth. The rate of the second cryptocurrency may exceed $3,050 soon.

- Cryptocurrency was mined on the equipment of the Main Directorate of the Police of Poland (KGP), Gazeta Wyborcza reports. The mining was organized by an IT specialist of the department, who has already been fired. According to the newspaper, he will be followed by another employee.
Fears were caused by a possible leak of official data from police computers caused by illegal mining. However, the department denied this possibility: "The device used was not connected to any database, and the case is largely related to the theft of electricity."
Recall that this is not the only case of such use of service equipment. Mining was also done on hospital computers in Estonia, on the equipment of an airport in Italy. And engineers in the city of Sarov in Russia mined bitcoins on a supercomputer of a classified nuclear center. All of them were fined, and one of the ex-employees of the center was imprisoned.

- State Street, the second oldest U.S. bank with an investment portfolio of $3.1 trillion, plans to begin providing cryptocurrency-related services. It is about helping private funds to carry out transactions with digital assets, as well as to provide services for keeping records of such transactions. To this end, State Street has agreed to cooperate with Lukka, which has experience in assessing the value of digital assets based on the state of supply and demand. Such information will be useful for those private funds of the bank that are looking for optimal price levels to enter the cryptocurrency market.

- There is a theory that the movement of the price of bitcoin is based on changes in spot trading, and that the derivatives market also has a huge impact on the quotes of the main cryptocurrency.
Call contracts in the bitcoin derivatives market are associated with the demand for price increases, put contracts insure against falling prices. As of Aug. 1, the put/call ratio had fallen to an 8-month low. This ratio was so low for the last time in December 2020. Low put/call ratios indicate that bitcoin investors are supporting price increases. That need is now higher than what we saw in April, right before BTC soared to $60,000.
The probability index shows that there is a 30% chance that BTC will reach $46,000 soon. Moreover, according to the indicator readings, the overall probability that bitcoin will be worth between $50,000 and $55,000 is 28.3%.

- Michael Miebach, CEO of payment giant Mastercard said that cryptocurrencies must enter the banking sector. Moreover, he has publicly stated that his company will do everything possible to become an integral part of the crypto space. "Mastercard is ready to become an assistant for the authorities in this task. We are ready for experiments and testing of digital currencies, so that in the end banks begin to work with them," Miebach said.
The top manager added that Mastercard will allow 1 billion of its users to pay with digital assets in more than 30 countries around the world in 2021.
Recall that another payment giant, Visa, is already working on the integration of stablecoins into the global economy.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 08, 2021, 03:23:47 PM
Forex Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 09 - 13, 2021


EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The EUR/USD pair drew another wave of sine waves on the chart: it fell by the same amount in the first week of August as it rose in the last week of July.

Statistics from the US labor market set the tone for the week's trends. In anticipation, the pair was moving in the sideways range of 1.1850-1.1900 throughout the first half of the week. The bears tried to break through its lower border on Wednesday, August 04. However, amid disappointing private sector employment statistics from the ADP, the pair reversed and, conversely, aimed at a breakout of the channel's upper border. But this attempt, now by the bulls, failed. The reason was the record growth of business activity in the US services sector from ISM: it rose to 64.1 in July.

After pulling back to support 1.1830, the pair froze in anticipation of the release of non-farm payrolls (NFP), data on the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector. This data is traditionally published every first Friday of the month. And the report released on August 6 did not disappoint investors. Moreover, some analysts called it "stellar" as it showed employment growth of 943 thousand against the forecast of 870 thousand. In addition, the unemployment rate fell from 5.9% to 5.4%.
The market responded immediately with a surge in the US currency, as according to Fed statements, the timing of the monetary stimulus program (QE) and interest rate hikes are directly dependent from a crackdown on inflation and a full-fledged recovery in the US labor market.

After the release of the report, the yield on 10-year US bonds went up in the direction of 1.30%, which supported the rally in the dollar. The DXY rose 0.60% to 92.80, while EUR/USD plunged to 1.1755. The last chord of the week sounded very close, at the level of 1.1760.

Impressive labor market data allowed President Joe Biden to say his approach to economics is working. True, the White House host urged not to relax and stated that there was still a lot of hard work to do. Moreover, the country has to extinguish a new wave of coronavirus associated with the Delta strain. The president believes that the number of new cases of Covid will initially rise, but then decline, thanks to the current scale of vaccinations. And therefore, the US economy will not suffer as much damage as it did before.

Biden's words also went into the piggy bank of those waiting for the Fed's policy tightening soon. For example, analysts at Canadian investment bank TD Securities forecast that the dollar will perform better against currencies whose national central banks retain a dovish mood.

The overall picture for the pair looks bearish, something 70% of experts agree on. They believe that the EUR/USD pair intends to test the end-March low of 1.1700 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. This forecast is supported by 100% of trend indicators on both H4 and D1. But the oscillators note the weakening of the bearish onslaught. 10% of them have taken a neutral position on H4, and 15% are giving signals that the pair is oversold. There are even more of them on D1, 35%, which indicates a possible quick correction to the north. The remaining 30% of the experts are also expecting it. Moreover, in their opinion, the pair may not just limit itself to correction, but return first to the channel 1.1850-1.1900, and then rise to 1.2000. Although, of course, this is not a matter of the next few days.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, here we can note the release of data on the consumer market in Germany and the United States on Wednesday, August 11. In addition, the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will also be released at the end of the five-day period, on Friday, August 13. It is predicted that it may show a slight increase, which will slightly strengthen the US currency.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

The Bank of England held a meeting on Thursday August 05, which, as expected, offered no surprises. Even with the good pace of recovery from the pandemic and rising inflation, all basic monetary policy parameters remained unchanged. The regulator kept the interest rate at a historically low level of 0.1%, and the quantitative easing (QE) program at ?895 billion.

The GBP/USD pair was never able to break the record of 30 July and was held in 1.3870-1.3935 for the whole week. An attempt made, in parallel with the euro, to break through its upper border on August 4, ended in nothing. As a result of the week's session, thanks to strong US statistics, the pair returned to the bottom of the channel, where it placed the final point at 1.3875.

The main interest for investors was not the predictable decision of the Bank of England, but the subsequent comments of its management regarding the future monetary policy. As mentioned above, the country's economy is confidently moving along the path of recovery. According to the data released earlier, inflation in June rose to 2.5%, exceeding the target level of 2%. The government is managing to cope with the next wave of COVID-19, so no new restrictions or lockdowns are yet to be seen. And although the Deputy Chairman of the Bank of England Benjamin Broadbent uttered a mysteriously ornate phrase that “moderate (!) tightening is likely (!), maybe (!) will be needed”, it did not impress investors. Especially as Broadbent said inflation in the country will rise 4% in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022.

Therefore, according to 75% of experts, any signal about a possible transition from QE to a tighter policy, will be enough to lift the GBP/USD pair to 1.4000. 60% of oscillators agree with this position, but only 40% of trend indicators on D1. There is even greater discord in the readings of the indicators on H4. Graphical analysis on this timeframe first draws a fall of the pair to the 1.3800 horizon, and then a return to the highs of the end of July in the 1.3980 zone. It is clear that the support/resistance levels along the way will be the 1.3870-1.3935 channel boundaries.

As for the events of the coming week, we can single out the publication of preliminary data on UK GDP for tQ2 2021 on Thursday August 12. This figure is projected to show a very significant increase, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. And if the forecast is met, it will give the pound strong support, thus becoming a signal to the possible start of the QE program cuts.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

Starting on Wednesday August 04, the yen surrendered one frontier of defense after another, losing 150 points. The USD/JPY pair jumped from 108.71 to 110.21 in just three days. And, of course, it's all again to blame the same growing US labor market, pulling the yield of American treasuries. As mentioned above, this indicator approached 1.30%, which hit the Japanese currency hard.

Most experts (55%) expect the pair to return to support at 109.00. However, according to 45% of analysts, the pair has not yet exhausted its upside potential, especially if the yield on 10-year US Treasuries continues to rise. This forecast is actively supported by 100% of trend indicators on both timeframes, 65% of oscillators on H4 and 50% on D1. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts that the pair will finally be able to reach the coveted 112.00 level. The resistances on the way to this target are 110.65, 111.10 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

(https://i.imgur.com/ENhJyuW.jpg)

The digital currency market is optimistic. Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of a crypto winter, a crypto spring has immediately arrived. Indeed, over the past two weeks, a lot of green leaves have appeared on the "tree" of bitcoin quotes, of which there are much more than yellow-red dull autumn ones.

Bouncing off the low of $29,300 on July 20, the BTC/USD pair added about 40% and is trading in the $41,000-42,500 zone at the time of writing the forecast. The total capitalization of the crypto market grew by the same 40% over this period: from $1.19 trillion to $1.67 trillion. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it has finally moved from the Extreme Fear zone to the center of the scale, rising from 10 points to 52.

In addition to the quotes, major influencers statements and macro statistics support the market optimism. Recall that it was these factors that served as the main drivers of the bitcoin rally last fall.

For example, MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor, said in an interview with Bloomberg TV that bitcoin has “the greatest growth potential and the lowest risk” and could therefore become “the property of the future” which will be possessed by everyone from small investors to big tech companies and governments. We see a future in which digital gold will become the basis of technological innovation in Apple, Amazon and Facebook and will take place on the balance sheets of corporations, cities, states and countries," the billionaire explained.

Analysts at one of the largest U.S. financial institutions, Bank of America, confirmed Saylor indirectly. They believe that the recognition of bitcoin as an official means of payment in El Salvador can give this country a number of serious advantages. This could potentially reduce the cost of remittances from abroad, which account for almost a quarter of El Salvador's GDP, and positively affect the incomes of the country's citizens. The analysts have called the democratization of financial services another advantage of the introduction of bitcoin, since approximately 70% of the adult population of the country does not have bank accounts. El Salvador can also attract direct foreign investment flows, becoming a major cryptocurrency mining center.

State Street, the second oldest bank in the United States with an investment portfolio of $3.1 trillion, plans to begin providing cryptocurrency related services. It is about helping private foundations to carry out transactions with digital assets and provide them with information on the optimal price levels for entering the crypto market.

But of course, things are not limited to State Street alone. Michael Miebach, CEO of payment giant Mastercard, said that cryptocurrencies must enter the banking sector on a large scale. Moreover, his company will do everything possible to become an integral part of the crypto space. "Mastercard is ready to become an assistant for the authorities in this task. We are ready for experiments and testing of digital currencies, so that in the end banks begin to work with them," said Miebach. And he added that Mastercard will allow 1 billion of its users to pay with digital assets in more than 30 countries around the world in 2021.
Recall that another payment giant, Visa, is already working on the integration of stablecoins into the global economy.

In terms of statistics, according to the research resource Glassnode, there was a sharp jump in the total number of active bitcoin addresses at the end of July. The increase in the indicator was about 30% in just a week. And the purses of "whales" accumulated 9.23 million BTC for the first time in history.

A further rise in prices is predicted by such an indicator as the ratio of put and call contracts in the bitcoin derivatives market. Low values of this indicator indicate that investors are supporting the rise in prices. And it fell to an 8-month low on August 01, that is, it is below the April value: the very one after which BTC surged above $60,000.

The likelihood index shows that there is a 30% chance that BTC will reach $46,000 in the near future. Moreover, according to the indicator, the overall probability that bitcoin will be worth between $50,000 and $55,000 is 28.3%.

The mood of analysts is even more elated. 60% of them vote for growth above $46,000. On the contrary, 20% are expecting a fall to the $30,000 area, and the remaining 20% vote for a sideways trend in the $35,000-42,000 range.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 11, 2021, 03:47:13 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/48AUNA4.jpg)

- “Outlaw” and “The Siege” star Steven Seagal found himself implicated in advertising a cryptocurrency scam organized by a group of Serbian nationalists. According to the investigation, fraudsters deceived almost 500 people and lured away from them a total of $11 million in cryptocurrencies and fiat money.
Steven Seagal featured in promos for the new B2G coin as brand ambassador. The actor urged his followers in social media, 7 million people on Facebook and 100 thousand on Twitter, not to miss the chance with B2G.
Investors thought they were investing in mining and would earn up to 200% in 60-90 days. However, their money went into accounts controlled by a certain person of Serbian-Australian descent living in the Philippines.
Steven Seagal received $250,000 plus 750,000 B2G tokens for advertising. However, according to him, he broke the agreement when he had doubts about the "honesty of the project." According to Segal's manager, “the star fell victim to deception like everyone else.”
The charges were brought against 16 participants in the scheme, most of them of Serbian origin. They are accused of bank fraud and money laundering. This group performed about 20 cryptocurrency scams and defrauded investors for a total of $70 million. As for Segal, he agreed to pay a $300,000 fine for illegally advertising securities.

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone predicted bitcoin to rise to $100,000 in a new report. He noted the strong support for digital gold and Ethereum in recent months and the start of the growth phase of these assets. “Bitcoin seems to have found support around the $30,000 mark, just as it did at $4,000 in early 2019. We see parallels with those events and, apparently, bitcoin may well reach $100,000. "
The analyst added that the bulls are preparing for the next step in the cryptocurrency market. He also stressed that the BTC rate was below the 20-week moving average for a long time, which indicates a sell-off of this cryptocurrency among "weak" buyers.
"Bitcoin is becoming digital gold in the world going in this direction, and Ethereum is evolving as a platform for digitalizing finance," said senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.

- AMC Theatres, a major cinema chain which owns 593 theaters in the United States and 335 abroad, will introduce the first cryptocurrency as a method to pay for tickets. The system for accepting cryptocurrency payments will be ready by the end of the year and is designed to increase sales amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to The Wrap.

- A well-known crypto strategist and trader nicknamed Crypto Dog predicts a serious bullish growth in BTC and ETH. "Bitcoin will get to $50,000 very soon." With regard to Ethereum, the analyst believes that with a new 30-day high of $3,182, ETH's all-time high is just around the corner.
As for the ETH/BTC pair, the strategist believes that it has upside potential of at least 40% from the current level of 0.07 BTC: "After crossing the 0.068 BTC level, I expect a strong rally to the level above 0.1 BTC."

- The Italian authorities have closed 32 Telegram groups in which thousands of people were offered to buy fake Green Pass.  This document allows Italians who have already received at least one COVID-19 vaccine, recently recovered from the virus or tested negative, to visit cinemas, gyms, museums, restaurants, etc. Criminals preferred payments in cryptocurrency. There was no fixed price; on average, a fake document could be purchased for 500 euros or 588 dollars.

- Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willy Wu believes that the bitcoin rate should rise in order to correct the supply/demand imbalance in the market. Based on fundamentals, Bitcoin's fair rate is $53,200, Wu said. However, he warned that fundamental factors do not allow forecasting for a short period, but with sufficient time, they will fully justify themselves.
Another analyst, Will Clemente, agreed with Wu's opinion and noted that, based on the bitcoin liquidity data from the Glassnode analytical platform, he predicted its growth to about $53,000 back on July 31.

- Israel's National Intelligence Agency Mossad has posted a job list on its website that features a tech expert on cryptocurrencies. The intelligence service did not specify what tasks the specialist would have to meet. However, the Ynet news outlet suggested that Mossad is interested in using the cryptocurrency, including for organizing payments to its agents.

- Bridgewater Associates billionaire founder Ray Dalio does not rule out bitcoin growth, but still prefers gold. Dalio has stated that he holds a "very small volume" of bitcoin. “If you put a gun to my head and let me choose only one of the two, I’ll choose gold,” he said.
At the same time, the billionaire admitted that bitcoin is still an important tool for diversifying portfolios: "There are certain assets that are worth holding to diversify a portfolio, and bitcoin is a kind of digital gold."

- The US Senate sent a bill to the House of Representatives on Tuesday, August 10, according to which miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi protocols, etc. can be required to report to the IRS on the activities of their users. However, as it stands, the bill's requirements are not technically feasible, for which the document has been repeatedly criticized by the most prominent representatives of the crypto industry, including Elon Musk.

- Due to a hacker attack, the protocol for communication of various blockchains Poly Network lost $611 million. This is the largest damage in the entire history of the space of decentralized finance and cryptocurrencies as such. The previous anti-record was held by the Japanese exchange Coincheck, which lost over $500 million in NEM tokens in 2018.
The current attack stole $273 million in Ethereum blockchain tokens, $253 million in Binance Smart Chain blockchain tokens and $85 million in USDC stablecoin.

- Tom Lee, head of the analytical company Fundstrat, recalled the "golden rule" for crypto investors on CNBC. He has always encouraged to buy bitcoin every time once the quotes cross the 200-day moving average (MA 200) from the bottom up. Starting in 2017, in three out of five cases, the closing of the daily candle above this line was the beginning of a gradual increase in trading volumes and the development of long-term upward trends that lasted from 4 months to a year.
Two failures, according to Tom Lee, do not in any way cancel his "golden rule", since in these cases the BTC rate managed to rise enough for traders to protect their positions from any loss.
Tom Lee also reiterated his prediction that he sees bitcoin in the region of $100-120k in 2022. The new wave of demand will be driven by rising global inflation and technological changes in cryptocurrency.
Note that Tom Lee is the brother of the creator of Litecoin, but this time he did not discuss the future of this coin.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 15, 2021, 03:35:42 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 16 - 20, 2021


EUR / USD: it's All About the Labor Market

The forecast given last week has come true 100%. Recall that 70% of experts suggested that EUR/USD will test the late March low at 1.1700 once again. And it did drop to the level of 1.1705 as early as Wednesday. However, the drivers for further strengthening the US currency were not enough, and the pair was moving in reverse, north, for the second half of the week.

It reached weekly highs on Friday, August 13, climbing to the 1.1800 horizon, and completed the five-day period at 1.1795, the best gain in recent months. This happened during the American session due to a sharp drop in the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, the value of which dropped to the December 2011 low: from 80.2 to 70.2 points. This indicator is based on a survey of consumers and measures their confidence in US economic growth. Simply put, it evaluates their willingness to spend money. Other indicators presented by the university also fell short of expectations.

The Federal Reserve has repeatedly stressed that the timing of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program and raising interest rates directly depends on the acceleration of inflation and a full recovery of the US labor market. But it turns out that Americans' desire to shop is on the wane, which does nothing to boost inflation and meet the Fed's goals.

On the back of disappointing data from the University of Michigan, the DXY dollar index dipped to 92.50, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 have once again renewed their highs, reaching 35612.25 and 4467.13, respectively.

Interestingly, US stock indices have been growing recently both when economic releases delight investors and when they upset them. This is apparently due to the pumping of the market with a huge amount of dollars under the QE program. Investors simply have nowhere to put it, especially since the Fed's interest rates are extremely low now. So you have to invest it in stocks.

But the voices of the “hawks” that it is time to end with QE can be heard more and more clearly inside the US Central Bank itself. According to 28 out of 43 Reuters experts, the Fed will announce the start of the program's curtailment in September. More than a third of respondents believe that this will happen in November-December. The decline in asset purchases, according to 60% of the experts surveyed, will start in Q1 2022, almost everyone else believes it will happen even earlier, in Q4 this year.

Starting to wind down fiscal stimulus is extremely likely to lead to outflows from the stock market and strengthen the dollar. But so far, there is no clarity on the timing, and there is no certainty in the opinions of experts. Assessing the prospects of the EUR/USD pair for the near future, 30% vote for its growth and 35% for the fall and for the sideways trend along the horizon of 1.1800.

There is no unity among indicators either. It is clear that after the jump on Friday the 13th, most of them, including graphical analysis, are colored green. Although here, too, 25% of oscillators are already giving signals that the pair is overbought. As for D1, it is simply impossible to give preference to any of the colors: one third of the oscillators are colored green, one third - red, and one third - neutral gray. As for the trend indicators on D1, the majority (65%) indicate the continuation of the medium-term downtrend, and the pair's desire to test the support of 1.1705 once again. If it succeeds, it will encounter a strong support in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If the bulls win, then the resistances are located at levels 1.1840, 1.1910 and 1.1975.

Of the events of the coming week, which may affect trends, it is worth noting the release of Eurozone GDP data for Q2, as well as US retail sales and inflation data. These releases will be out on Tuesday August 17. And the next day, August 18, the minutes of the FOMC meeting of the US Fed will be published, from which experts will try to understand whose side, pigeons or hawks, is advantageous now relative to the timing of the QE folding.

GBP/USD: Waiting for the Start of QE

As expected, data released on Thursday August 12 showed strong UK GDP growth in Q2 2021, from minus 1.6% to plus 4.8%. However, this coincided with the forecast completely and therefore did not make a special impression on the market. But the University of Michigan data caused GBP/USD to soar 85 points, from 1.3790 to 1.3875, and end the trading session almost where it started, in 1.3868.

Prior to the release of this data, many experts expected the pair's downtrend which started in late July to continue. Commerzbank specialists called the June 21 low of 1.3786 as initial support, after breaking which the pair will consistently drop to the lows on July 02 (1.3735) and April 12 (1.3669). The target is the July 20 low at 1.3571.

A similar scenario was suggested by the analysts of the Singapore-based OCBC Bank, who named the levels 1.3779 and 1.3732. The economists of the French Societe Generale agreed with this, believing that the combination of a strong dollar and a weak pound would lead the GBP/USD pair to fall below 1.3750.

However, none of that has happened yet. And it is appropriate to cite here the opinion of Credit Suisse experts, according to which the pair has completed the formation of a bullish reversal pattern. But to continue its growth, it needs to rise above 1.3895. Then the next targets will be closing above 55-DMA at 1.3920, and then zone 1.3978-1.4010.

As for the readings of the indicators, they are similar to the readings of their "colleagues" for the previous pair, EUR/USD. Although there is some advantage of greens on H4, it is not possible to be guided by their signals now.

Among the important macro statistics for the pound next week is the release of UK labour market data on Tuesday August 17 and on the consumer market on Wednesday August 18. However, even if both turn out to be positive, it is still not worth waiting for clear signals from the Bank of England about the timing of its QE curtailment.

USD/JPY: North Following Treasury Yields

(https://i.imgur.com/9yooPfk.jpg)

Last week we named our forecast for this pair “North Following Treasury Yields”. In the current one, only one word has been replaced, "North" for "South".

The previous title has fully justified itself. As anticipated, USD/JPY grew in the first half of the week, reaching the height of 110.80 on August 11. However, then “something went wrong”, the pair turned around and flew down, putting the last chord at 109.55. The first reason is repeated many times above. An additional advantage to the Japanese safe-haven currency was given by the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This indicator dropped sharply by 4.5%, reaching a weekly low of 1.3%.

The USD/JPY pair finished five days substantially below the key 110.00 horizon, and experts say this does not bode well for the dollar. (Of course it's about the near term). Thus, 45% of analysts vote for the continuation of the downtrend, another 45% prefer a sideways trend, and only 10% believe that the bulls will be able to turn the pair northward again.

As for the trend indicators, there is also a clear advantage on the side of the reds: 100% side with them on H4, 75% on D1. There is not a single one among the oscillators on H4 that would point to the north. True, 25% have taken a neutral position, and out of 75% of those looking down, almost half are in the oversold zone. On D1, 65% point south, 20% point west, and 15% point north.

Support levels are 109.35, 109.05 and 108.70, the target of the bears is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the zone 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

Among the week's events would be the release of preliminary Japanese GDP figures for Q2 2021 (forecast: growth from minus 1.0% to plus 0.2%). However, as the practice shows, this will have little effect on the pair's behavior. The main focus should be on US macro statistics. And it could quite break the current trend and re-send the pair north.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is Crypto Winter Canceled?

“Investors hope that the crypto freeze has passed, and instead of the crypto winter, the crypto spring came straight away,” - this is how we described the situation in this market in the previous review. The past week did not spoil the spring mood. Bitcoin has heaped by about 12% in seven days and is approaching $47,800 at the time of writing. The total capitalization of the crypto market increased over the same period from $1.67 trillion to $1.957 trillion, and the day it will once again cross the bar of $2.0 tn seems not far off. As for the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, it finally moved from the central zone to the green part of the scale, rising from 52 points to 70. At the same time, it is still far away to a state of severe overbought, which foreshadow a strong correction. And it gives investors hope that the day will come when the BTC/USD pair updates its historic high.

In addition to optimists, of course there are enough pessimists in the market. Including those among recognized professionals. For example,  Bridgewater Associates billionaire founder Ray Dalio does not rule out bitcoin growth, but still prefers gold. Dalio has stated that he holds a "very small volume" of bitcoin. “If you put a gun to my head and let me choose only one of the two, I’ll choose gold,” he said.

Reputable bankers like Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and fellow JPMorgan Chase Jamie Dimon continue to criticize cryptocurrency. But at the same time, they and many other banks continue to actively implement services related to digital assets. And analysts at JPMorgan predicted BTC's rise to $146,000 earlier in the year.

Disputes about where it is better to invest money, in precious metal or in cryptocurrencies, do not subside. At the same time, simple calculations show the obvious superiority of bitcoin. The price of gold has fallen by about 5.5% over the past 10 years. As for the core cryptocurrency, it grew 571,000% during the same time. That is, having invested only two dollars in bitcoin then, you would be a millionaire by now. In the last five years alone, gold has fallen in price against bitcoin by 25 times.

The numbers speak for themselves. But the reliability of investments cannot be forgotten. Between 2010 and 2015, the price of gold experienced a maximum drop, losing approximately 40% in five years. But if you look at the April-May chart this year, you'll see that bitcoin lost the same 40% in just four weeks!

Investing in cryptocurrencies requires significantly stronger nerves and a safety margin. During the rapid collapse of the crypto market, some get rid of their coins, succumbing to panic. Others, on the other hand, see such corrections as an excellent buying opportunity.

According to Tom Lee, head of research firm Fundstrat, the “golden rule” for crypto investors is to buy bitcoin every time the quotes cross the 200-day moving average (MA 200) from the bottom up. Starting in 2017, in three out of five cases, the closing of the daily candle above this line was the beginning of a gradual increase in trading volumes and the development of long-term upward trends that lasted from 4 months to a year. Two failures, according to Tom Lee, do not in any way cancel his "golden rule", since in these cases the BTC rate managed to rise enough for traders to protect their positions from any loss.

Tom Lee also reiterated his prediction that he sees bitcoin in the region of $100,000-120,000 in 2022. Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone pointed to the same level of $100,000 in his latest report. “Bitcoin seems to have found support around the $30,000 mark, just as it did at $4,000 in early 2019. We see parallels with those events and, apparently, bitcoin may well reach $100,000," he wrote.

More modest predictions were given by three other crypto experts. Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Willie Wu believes that, based on fundamentals, the fair price for bitcoin is $53,200. However, he warned that fundamental factors do not allow forecasting for a short period, but with sufficient time, they will fully justify themselves.

Another analyst, Will Clemente, agreed with Wu's opinion and noted that, based on the bitcoin liquidity data from the Glassnode analytical platform, he predicted its growth to about $53,000 back on July 31. The well-known crypto strategist with the nickname Crypto Dog confirmed these predictions. In his opinion, "bitcoin will get to $50,000 very soon."

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 18, 2021, 05:20:32 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/CzwJmi0.jpg)

- Journalists of the world media drew attention to the online speech of Jerome Powell to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”.
While Powell just theorizes about supporting cryptocurrencies, the US Congress may well arrange a mini "To the Moon" in the near future. First, the congressmen forced the US Treasury to prepare an explanatory guide that exempts all participants in the crypto market from submitting tax reports, except for brokers.
And two senators decided to go even further and introduced a bill simplifying the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) guidelines for miners, wallet operators, and others. FATF is now trying to achieve complete deanonymization of all blockchain transactions by forcing crypto industry members to implement the “travel rules” option. It applies to fiat transfers, where the bank will not accept payment without verified data.

- An unknown hacker has hacked a major Legalizer forum on drug trafficking in the former USSR countries. He posted some of the information in public access, the rest is sold by the hacker for at least 1 BTC. The information in the database includes among other passport data of the alleged owners of the forum, customer contacts and their correspondence.
The owner and developer of Legalizer is listed as a Latvian citizen, one of the ex-developers is a resident of the Moscow region of Russia, and the current administrator is a Ukrainian citizen. According to the Blockchair service, 20.57 BTC (about $935,000 at the time of writing) went through the drug forum's cryptocurrency wallet.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. According to him, bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst said.
The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move. “The prospects are quite good, and if we manage to stay at this level as support, then we will have pleasant surprises,” he said.

- The largest American retailer Walmart (more than 11,700 hypermarkets in 28 countries) has opened a vacancy for the head of the cryptocurrency business. The new position provides for the creation and management of the digital asset development strategy. Recall that back in 2019, The Block, citing a patent application from Walmart, announced the company's plans to launch its own stablecoin.

- A popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named four altcoins that are ready for a rally and can surpass BTC in profitability.
The first pair on the list is XRP/BTC. According to the trader, it is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DoAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.
Next on the list is the popular Bitcoin Cash (BCH) altcoin. According to the trader, the BCH/BTC pair managed to stay above the key support level and is now ready to reach 0.02 BTC, as the next resistance level is about 50 per cent higher. The third asset is VeChain (VET), and at the bottom of the list is Tron (TRX).

- Bloomberg chief analyst Eric Balchunas suggested that a programmer from California Hal Finney was hiding behind the alias of the bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. He is known in the crypto community as one of the early supporters of bitcoin, who participated in the development of the cryptocurrency, and also conducted the first bitcoin transaction with Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. The programmer died in 2014 at the age of 58 due to a serious illness.
The chief analyst at Bloomberg gained confidence that Finney was the creator of bitcoin after reading a message on the forum that the programmer sent back in 1993. Finney described there the idea of cryptocurrency trading cards, the principle of which is similar to the technology of non-fungible tokens (NFT).
It became known this spring that the fortune of the creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto, who, according to various estimates, owns from 750 thousand to 1.1 million BTC, exceeded $61 billion.

- Residents of India, the second most populous country in the world, can now receive cashback in bitcoins. The card, issued by GoSats and available online, allows users to earn BTC when shopping at major stores such as Amazon, Starbucks and Flipkart.
The new product is being rolled out by GoSats in partnership with the non-profit National Payment Corporation of India, which promotes digital services across the country. This corporation was founded in December 2008 and is directly owned by the Reserve Bank of India, which should help avoid any regulatory hurdles from the authorities.

- As it turns out, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model developed by popular cryptanalyst PlanB so far. Plan B gave his forecast for the coming months in June 2021, when BTC was trading below $35,000. According to him, the price of BTC should reach $135,000 by the end of this December.

- Along with the current spike in prices, bitcoin has also shown significant improvement in network metrics. In particular, bitcoin miners have continued to accumulate, their balance has grown steadily over the past month. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin, so they do not want to take profits now.
Santiment, a web data analysis firm, also reported encouraging data for investors. It reports that the supply of bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

- Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone speaks once again in favor of the first cryptocurrency. In his opinion, BTC is capable of replacing gold as an asset for hedging risks and accumulating wealth, "and the efforts of American regulators are unlikely to be able to prevent this."
Michael McGlone stressed that “digitizing money and the financial industry” is giving bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time, gold does not have any strong drivers for growth, according to the analyst.
According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term.

- According to a study conducted in the United States, LGBTQ representatives were among the most active crypto investors. One in four Americans in this category has invested in digital currency.
The surge in such interest is due to both positive and negative factors. Yosef Bonaparte, a professor at the University of Colorado, explains that gender discrimination, on average, reduces a person's chances of trading the stock market by 40%. Many members of the community have low incomes and are embarrassed to apply to traditional investment funds due to the huge amounts that the latter demand as payment for services. The key factor behind the growth in the number of crypto investors in the LGBTQ camp is the near-zero threshold for entering this market.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 20, 2021, 05:06:36 PM
NordFX Broker Becomes the Most Transparent Broker-2021


(https://i.imgur.com/lGpwf73.jpg)

In mid-August, NordFX brokerage company received its first award this year. Experts from one of the major financial portals and business award organizations, World Forex Award (WFA), named NordFX the Most Transparent Broker-2021.

This award is important primarily because transparency is one of the most important factors, the same as financial performance, technology, risk, etc., that allows traders, investors and partners to assess the reliability of a company.

Before reaching their verdict, WFA experts assessed whether the information the company provides to stakeholders is open, complete and timely, and expressed in an understandable form required for objective decisions. An important role was played by the fact that NordFX had practically no claims from the state bodies of its regulation for 13 years of its work in the financial markets, and controversial issues that sometimes arose with clients were resolved openly and, if necessary, with the involvement of independent experts.

It should be noted that NordFX business policy focuses on all three main areas of transparency: openness, clarity and accuracy of information. This applies both to the documents governing client and partner relationships, as well as the description of trading terms, including speed of order execution, spreads and commissions during transactions and when depositing/withdrawing funds.

Promotions run by NordFX are no exception. A fresh example here is the super lottery, where 100,000 USD is drawn among traders this year. Any client of the company can take part in this lottery, who can check the correctness of the accrual of lottery tickets in real time on the company's website, and the draws are held online, making it possible for anyone to follow the prize draw on the Internet.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 22, 2021, 05:43:55 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 23 - 27, 2021


EUR/USD: Fed Needs Strong Dollar, ECB Needs Weak Euro

(https://i.imgur.com/OOH4Dj4.png)

A previous review named the publication of the US Fed's FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday 18 August as the most important event of the past week.  This document was supposed to clarify the situation regarding the timing of the curtailment of the monetary stimulus (QE) program. Of course, 100% clarity never came out. Some Fed executives still believe that it is necessary to start winding down stimulus at the earliest in spring 2022. However, there is also the opposite view that a parting with QE should happen before the end of this year. And it was this view that led to another decline in investor risk appetites and a further strengthening of the dollar.

Stock indexes - the Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq Composite, have been falling since the start of the week, with the release of the minutes pushing them further down. And while a certain wave of purchases could be observed after each pullback, the trend still remains downward: the market gets rid of stocks, preferring dollars. The DXY index, which tracks the USD against a basket of 6 major currencies, heaped nearly 1.3 per cent over the week, rising from 92.500 to 93.700.

In addition to anticipating the early start of QE, the new strain of Delta coronavirus is also pressing the stock and commodity markets. In anticipation of new lockdowns, investors fear for the fate of both the global economy as a whole and its locomotive, the US economy. According to the Ministry of Health, the number of new infections totaled more than 268,000 in one day on August 17 alone, which compares with the peaks of the beginning of the year.

That being said, the US job market feels pretty good at all. At least for now. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 377 thousand to 348 thousand for the week, which is much better than the forecast of 363 thousand. This has been the best indicator since the beginning and has benefited the dollar.

Another source of support for the USD was the widening spreads between the yields of US and foreign bonds. Foreign investors support and will support the demand for dollars in order to then purchase American Treasuries.

Because of the above factors, the result of the past week was the strengthening of the dollar against the euro by 130 points. having started Monday from 1.1795, EUR/USD groped the local bottom at 1.1665 by the end of the week and finished five days in 1.1700.

A strong dollar is needed by the Fed to reassure investors about unmanageable inflation. Therefore, new, clearer signals regarding the folding of QE can be expected from this regulator. But the ECB is not at all opposed to further weakening of the euro, which has been repeatedly stated by the head of the bank Christine Lagarde. So, according to many experts, the downtrend of the EUR/USD pair will continue in the medium term.

The pair has now fallen below the low of April 01, 2021, 1.1704, and if this breakdown is confirmed, the next targets will be the lows of last autumn in the 1.1600-1.1610 zone. If it is able to overcome this barrier, it will open a road to targets in zones 1.1450 and 1.1240. A 300-400 point path is likely to take a month or two to overcome. But if the Fed announces the completion of QE, the pair will fly that distance in a matter of days. This development is supported by 65% of experts.

The remaining 35% believe that the dollar may take a pause in its growth and the EUR/USD pair will return to the 1.1700-1.1900 range for a while. The nearest targets here are 1.1750 and 1.1830.

In terms of technical analysis, D1 has 100% of the trend indicators and 75% of the oscillators painted red. The remaining 25% oscillators give signals that the pair is oversold.

In the coming week, we should note the publication of Markit's German and Eurozone PMI on Monday 23 August, as well as of capital orders goods and durable goods in the US on Wednesday 25 August. On Thursday, we'll find out preliminary US GDP figures. In addition, the annual symposium will be held in Jackson Hole from August 26 to 28, where Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday.

GBP/USD: Escape from the Pound

If the pound could still struggle with the dollar two weeks ago, it surrendered all its positions last week. Investors rushed to secure assets due to the rapid spread of the Delta strain and its impact on the global economic recovery. Plus, the possible winding down of QE in the USA. And then the Gfk UK Consumer Confidence Index fell from minus 7 in July to minus 8 in August, the worst performance since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, GBP/USD falls almost 270 points to mid-term support in the 1.3600 zone and finishes at 1.3622.

We would like to remind that in the previous forecast, the specialists of the German Commerzbank designated the July 20 low at 1.3571 as the target for the pair. Given the slight backlash, this forecast proved correct. And now they say that in its fall, the pair may test the 200-week moving average at 1.3146. The strongest support along the way is located in the 1.3480 and 1.3200 zones.

South is also indicated by 100% of trend indicators and 65% of oscillators on D1. However, only 30 per cent of experts agree with them among analysts. The remaining 70% believe that the British currency's potential for resistance is far from exhausted, especially if the Bank of England takes a more active position. 35% of oscillators in the oversold zone talk of a possible reversal to the north as well. The nearest resistance is at 1.3725, the nearest target is the return of GBP/USD to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

Of the most significant macro statistics to be released next week, the publication of Markit's UK services business index on Monday 23 August can be singled out.

USD/JPY: Yen Is Not Afraid of Dollar

Against the backdrop of investors” defection from risk, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, successfully resists the dollar's gaining strength. Since past March, USD/JPY has been moving along the 110.00 horizon, making rare attempts to get outside the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.55 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.80, and the range of fluctuations barely exceeded 110 points: from 109.10 at the low to 110.22 at the high.

 This behavior of the pair forces both experts and indicators to make very contradictory forecasts. Among the first, 45% side with the bulls, 35% side with the bears and 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 35% are colored red, 15% - green, 50% - neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of green.

 Support levels are 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.00, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Lull Before the Storm?

Bitcoin has slowly and uncertainly creeped up all week, trying to overcome a strong level of resistance around $48,000. Two attempts, on August 14 and 16, ended in failure, after which BTC/USD rolled back to the support of $44,000. At the time of writing this review, towards the end of Friday, August 20, it went to the assault again, broke through the resistance and reached the level of $49,000 in the thin market.

The total crypto market capitalization increased over the week from $1.957 trillion to $2.043 trillion, that is, by just 4.4%. And, although it has overcome the $2.0 trillion bar, it is not at all a fact that it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also remained still at 70 points.

This sluggishness and uncertainty may be due to the fact that large institutional investors are currently focusing on the traditional market. But we must not forget that mid-August is the height of the holiday period, and many traders will not step up until the end of the month.

Very strong drivers are needed to dramatically push the market up or down. World media reporters drew attention to Jerome Powell's online speech to students at the Town Hall conference. The Fed chief noted the ever-increasing importance of cryptocurrencies, outlining the phrase about the U.S. Treasury's examination of holding a portion of the country's reserves in digital assets. Making such a decision would literally blow up the cryptocurrency market, repeating the situation of 2017. The price of bitcoin soared then from $750 to $19,270, which is 25 times, getting the slang name “To the Moon”. But for now, the head of the Federal Reserve's reasoning about supporting cryptocurrencies is only theoretical.

Bloomberg analyst Michael McGlone also spoke in favor of the first cryptocurrency, who emphasized that “digitalizing money and the financial industry” gives bitcoin a huge boost to growth. Once upon a time, similar factors allowed the US dollar to dominate the global financial arena. At the same time gold, according to the analyst, has no strong drivers for growth, and BTC is therefore quite capable of replacing this metal as an asset for risk hedging and wealth accumulation.

According to McGlone's forecast, bitcoin could well reach $100,000 in the medium term. The well-known cryptanalyst PlanB calls a slightly bigger figure. In his opinion, bitcoin follows the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model he developed very closely, so the BTC/USD pair should reach $135,000 by the end of December.

Of course, all these figures are only the assumptions of specialists. Another cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes bitcoin is facing a crucial test this September, which will determine the future direction of the entire market. Bitcoin has tested the 20-week moving average every September since 2017 and either bounced or broke through it. And if another test happens this September, it will be possible to make a forecast basing on it until April 2022. “We will find out if the market will be bullish or if growth will stall for several months,” the analyst says.

The 20-week MA is currently around $43,500 and if BTC can hold that level as support, according to Benjamin Cowen, we will see an upward move.

Santiment, a web data analysis firm, reported encouraging data for investors. Bitcoin supply on exchanges fell to a two-week low. This suggests that a large amount of BTC will go to cold wallets. Analyst firm Glassnode has made a similar observation: “Bitcoin continued to leave exchanges in August at rates ranging from 75,000 to 100,000 coins per month. This outflow is similar to the period between 2020 and the Q1 21, when large accumulations prevailed.”

Bitcoin miners are also in no hurry to part with their coins, over the past month, their balance has grown steadily. This means that they expect further growth in the price of the coin as well, so they do not want to take profits now.

Despite the fact that the dominance of bitcoin has decreased from 69.7% to 43.8% since the beginning of the year, this coin is without a doubt still the main engine of the digital market. It is clear that the main competitor for BTC at the moment is ethereum. On some exchanges, it overtakes the reference cryptocurrency in terms of trading volumes already. And according to some experts, such as the head of the deVere Group Nigel Green, ETH may push bitcoin to second place in a few years.

As for the closer prospects, the popular cryptocurrency analyst and trader with the nickname DonAlt named several altcoins that are ready for a rally and may surpass BTC in profitability in the near future. The first on the list is ripple. According to the trader, the XRP/BTC pair is already "up 50 per cent but is still far from the level of resistance." DonAlt believes this pair could yet show 185% growth from current levels.

NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 25, 2021, 04:48:11 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/wSwQnyI.jpg)

- MicroStrategy acquired additional 3,907 BTC worth about $177 million on August 24. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin, including commissions and other expenses.
In total, this analytics provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet. At the time of writing, the value of this cryptocurrency is estimated at $5.25 billion.

- El Salvador has begun preparing infrastructure related to the entry into force of the law to recognize bitcoin as an official means of payment. Operations with this cryptocurrency will be available at 200 ATMs and 50 bank branches by September 7. Residents will be able to withdraw cash 24 hours a day without any commission.
Head of State Nayib Bukele assured that ATMs will appear in all parts of El Salvador in the future. “What if someone is not interested in bitcoin? Keep living your ordinary life. Nobody is going to take your dollars. You can always queue up at Western Union and pay a commission,” Bukele stated. The President of El Salvador estimates that citizens lose about $400 million on remittances fees each year.

- Trend Micro experts found over 120 fake applications for cloud mining of cryptocurrencies in the Google Play Store. Some of them have been downloaded over 100,000 times. Malware does not have a mining feature, according to the study. However, they charge users a monthly fee of about $15 and additional payments allegedly for “enhanced mining opportunities.” Some apps require a prepayment.
Following Trend Micro's appeal to Google, eight fraudulent apps were removed. These include BitFunds, Bitcoin Miner, Daily Bitcoin Rewards, Crypto Holic, MineBit Pro, Bitcoin 2021, Ethereum - Pool Mining Cloud and Bitcoin (BTC) crypto wallet - Pool Mining Cloud Wallet. However, according to Trend Micro, about 120 malware is still available for download.

- A 24-year-old electronic engineer from Pretoria (South Africa) could now be richer by about $1 million but lost the wallet data with 20 BTC mined 10 years ago. He mined the cryptocurrency at school age. To do this, he used a computer with 512 GB of RAM. “I don’t remember exactly how much time I was mining, but it lasted about a couple of months continuously,” the failed millionaire recalls. Eventually he got fed up with it, as the computer could not be used for other tasks, and the cryptocurrency cost virtually nothing. During that year, the price of the first cryptocurrency rose from $0.0008 to $0.08.
Then he lost the paper with the key and password from the bitcoin wallet, and at some point, while cleaning the computer, he also deleted the data file. Some seven years later, with the price of the cryptocurrency already reaching $1,000, the engineer made an attempt to gain access to the mined coins. “I remember collecting all the HDDs, memory cards, CDs and DVDs in the house and carefully reviewing each one. It took about a week." However, there was no happy end.
Chainanalysis estimates that about 20% of mined bitcoins are in lost or forgotten cryptocurrency wallets at the moment.

- American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities
The bank is also reported to be actively picking up staff for its cryptocurrency team in London.

- A constant critic of bitcoin, president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc., Peter Schiff admitted that the price of BTC could still show impressive growth, reaching $100,000.
Schiff is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. And now, in an interview with Coin Stories, this "golden beetle" expressed regret for not making investments in bitcoin on time. Despite all the negative things said about the first cryptocurrency, Schiff still did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade.
“I wish I had bought bitcoin when I first heard about it - it was a serious mistake,” the financier admitted. "I could invest $100,000 in it, yes, I could. Instead, I invested that $100,000 in other things that failed. Now I could become a bitcoin billionaire because I knew about it early on. If I could go back in time, I would have acted differently,” Schiff lamented.
At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

- Earlier, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone repeatedly predicted the growth of BTC to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.
The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.
In doing so, McGlone called former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of Ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But also, the price will not fall below $2,000, rather the rate will exceed $4,000, according to the analyst.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin is much more optimistic about the future of this altcoin. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world.

— An Australian entrepreneur promised to pay BTC worth $5 to everyone who gets a coronavirus vaccination.
The Mayor of Cool Valley, Missouri (USA) is planning a much more generous reward. He announced his intention to donate $500 to $1000 in BTC to each of the 1,500 Cool Valley residents, as he believes this cryptocurrency has the potential to make them rich. “I have friends whose lives have completely changed: from ordinary workers with a working schedule from nine to five, they have become owners of a fortune of more than $80 million in a few years,” the mayor explained his initiative. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.
Residents of the city reacted to this initiative very positively, so the mayor has a lot of chances to be re-elected for a new term.

- With the start of another bitcoin rally, some major players predict that cryptocurrency will reach new record levels by the end of the year. The survey was conducted by Elwood Asset Management, with 55 out of an estimated 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds.
According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.
63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 29, 2021, 03:39:26 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 30 - September 03, 2021


EUR/USD: Three Hawks and a Dove in Jackson Hole

The return of the EUR/USD pair to 1.1700-1.1900 was predicted by 35% of experts supported by 25% of oscillators that showed it was oversold. After renewing the annual low of 1.1665 on August 20, the pair did go into a correction, reaching 1.1775 on Thursday.

The week's economic statistics proved weak enough for both the US and Eurozone, and all market attention has been shifted to the annual Jackson Hole symposium, running from 26 to 28 August. There were speeches by three representatives of the US Fed leadership, which turned out to be even more hawkish than investors had expected.

So the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard said that the asset purchase program is doing the US economy more harm than good at the moment by inflating another soap bubble in the real estate market. According to Esther George, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the current outbreak of the pandemic caused by the Delta strain will not have a significant impact on the economic situation in the country, and it would be better if the process of winding down QE starts earlier than later.

Robert Kaplan from Dallas joined his fellow hawks. Thus, the overall sentiment of these three high Federal Reserve officials can be reduced to the desire to start reducing asset purchases as early as the first and early second quarter of 2022, in the amount of $15 billion per month. Such a pace will allow the US central bank to raise its interest rate by the end of next year.

Fed chief Jerome Powell spoke at the Jackson Hole symposium at the very end of the working week, on the evening of Friday August 27. Some investors hoped that his position would be significantly softer than that of the Bullard-George-Kaplan trio. Otherwise, it could have dealt a major blow to the stock market, knocking down major indices including the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite. The bulls on the DXY dollar index, on the contrary, would be fazed by Jerome Powell's hawkish speeches. And although the consensus is gradually shifting to the fact that the regulator will announce the start of reducing monetary stimulus in November and will start implementing its plans in December-January, there was no need to wait for exact dates from the head of the Federal Reserve. That's exactly what happened: the high official said discussions about timing were still under way, that the issue would depend on economic and health risks, and that the central bank would continue to take a patient approach to their policies. The dollar weakened sharply after these words, and stock indices, on the contrary, updated historical highs once again.

Experts and investors have yet to analyze the likelihood of monetary restriction beginning in a period or another. So far, after some hesitation following Mr Powell's vaguely dovish position, the EUR/USD pair flew north, recorded a local high at 1.1802 and ended the five-day level at 1.1795.

Talking about the future, only 30% of the experts surveyed voted for the further growth of the pair, with the next targets of 1.1830 and 1.1900. The remaining 70% of analysts have taken the opposite view. They believe that the pair should retest the 1.1665 level. The nearest support is 1.1750 and 1.1700. The position of the indicators in total can be described as neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% indicate a rise in the pair, 25% indicate a fall, and another 25% are colored neutral gray. As for trend indicators, 80% look south and 20% look north.

The coming week's events include the release of German consumer market statistics on August 30 and September 01. Similar statistics for the Eurozone will be released on August 31 and September 03. As for the US, the ADP report on the employment in the private sector and the ISM index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the country will be published on September 1. And on the first Friday of the month, September 03, we will traditionally learn the most important indicators from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Overall, GBP/USD dynamics was reminiscent of the previous pair's movements. After reaching a low of 1.3600 on August 20, a rebound followed as a result of which the British pound rose to the mark 1.3767 on Thursday, August 26, as predicted by most (70%) experts.

Then came the meeting of American bankers in Jackson Hole and the hawkish speech of the aforementioned leaders of the Federal Reserve Bank, which led to some strengthening of the dollar and a decline in the pair to 1.3680. And then, thanks to the Fed chairman, the American currency began to fall in price again. As already mentioned, the market's hopes that Powell would announce a specific and early date for winding down the asset repurchase program did not come to fruition. As a result, the pair went up sharply, reaching a height of 1.3780, and completed the trading session at 1.3760.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, the majority of analysts (75%) expect the US currency to strengthen and a new storm of the 1.3600 level. If successful, the next target will be the horizon 1.3480. The nearest support is the zone 1.3680-1.3700.

The remaining 25% believe that the growth opportunities for the British currency have not yet been exhausted. The nearest resistance is at 1.3780, the nearest target is the return of the GBP/USD pair to the 1.3800-1.3875 zone. The nearest resistance levels are 1.3910 and 1.3960.

As for the oscillators on D1, 40% look south, 50% look east, and only 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds.

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

Amid market unrest caused by statements from Fed executives, unlike the rest of the currencies, the yen, as a quiet haven, is successfully countering any storms. The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time, starting the week from 109.80 mark, it finished it almost there, at 109.82, and the range of fluctuations narrows even more: from 109.40 at the low to 110.25 at the high.

This behavior of the pair leads experts to give very versatile predictions. 40% of them have sided with bulls this time, 30% side with bears, and 30% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, one cannot give priority to any of the directions here either.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are the 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65 zones.  The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: at the Crossroads

(https://i.imgur.com/I8BhJc3.jpg)

We put a question in the heading of the previous review. "The Lull Before the Storm?" - that is what it was. We also noted that powerful drivers will be needed to push bitcoin quotes above the current levels. But there were no drivers, so the storm hasn't happened yet. Although the news background is generally quite positive.

Thus, one of the digital market locomotives, MicroStrategy, purchased an additional 3,907 BTC on August 24 for about $177 million. The average purchase price was $45,294 per coin. And this suggests that the company does not expect any serious drawdown of the BTC/USD pair, and, on the contrary, expects its further growth.

In total, this analytics software provider has invested more than $2.9 billion in digital gold. Now there is a total of 108,992 BTC on MicroStrategy's balance sheet worth over $5 billion.

American banking giant Citigroup is awaiting regulatory approval to begin trading bitcoin futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Citigroup will therefore become another megabank after Goldman Sachs offering similar opportunities.

Bloomberg experts suggest that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve not one, but several applications for the launch of ETFs on bitcoin futures. The goal is to maintain competition and not give anyone any advantage. The SEC may make its decision by the end of October. And the first European bitcoin futures could be launched as early as mid-September. This was announced by Europe's largest derivatives exchange Eurex.

Having reached the medium-term target, the BTC/USD pair is "stuck" in the $47,000-50,000 range. This zone is a kind of intersection of two roads: horizontal and ascending channels. And the mood of the market for the coming weeks depends on whether the pair will be able to break through the support at the level of $47,000.

In terms of medium- to long-term forecasts, they remain positive overall. This was shown by a survey conducted by Elwood Asset Management with 55 out of approximately 175 cryptocurrency hedge funds. According to the data, 65% of these hedge funds predict that bitcoin will be trading in the $50,000 to $100,000 range by the end of 2021. 21% of those surveyed named a price between $100,000 and $150,000. And only 1% of hedge funds predicts that the asset's value will be below $50,000.

63% of hedge funds believe that the cryptocurrency market capitalization will be in the range of $2 trillion to $5 trillion, with another 11% estimating a market capitalization of between $5 trillion and $10 trillion.

The fact that the price of BTC can show impressive growth, reaching $100,000, was admitted even by the constant critic of bitcoin, the president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff.

This "golden beetle" is known as the man who takes every opportunity to strike at cryptocurrency and call for the purchase of gold. However, this time, he did not undertake to dispute the fact that BTC is a great store of value. In fact, the ROI on bitcoin has been 8,900,000% over the past decade. At the same time, he remains bearish and excludes the possibility that the asset will ever be massively used as a means of payment. According to the financier, the only merit of bitcoin is that people speculate on it.

Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has also repeatedly predicted BTC's growth to $100,000. But, according to the expert, the mainstream of the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization can become an obstacle to growth. People are beginning to realize that ethereum is “the building block for all financial technology, DeFi and infrastructure in a world that is going digital,” McGlone said.

The expert named non-fungible tokens (NFT) as another powerful support for the price of the main altcoin. Such assets are becoming extremely popular and are mostly issued on the ETH blockchain.

At the same time, McGlone considers the former Goldman Sachs hedge fund manager Raoul Pal's forecast of ethereum growth to $20,000 as overstated. But, according to the analyst, the price will not fall below $2,000 either, rather the rate will exceed $4,000.

The creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, is much more optimistic about the future of ethereum. He expects that after the recent London hardfork and implementation of EIP-1559, the ETH price will be 10 times higher than current levels and reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of this altcoin would reach $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all the major technology companies in the world. In the meantime, this figure is about $380 billion.

As far as the total capitalization of the crypto market is concerned, as we suggested in the previous review, there is now a struggle in the area of the psychologically important $2.0tn level. Starting at $2.043 trillion, this figure rose to $2.162 trillion on August 23, it fell to $1.973 trillion by August 27, and it rose again to $2.021 trillion by Friday evening.

Trading volumes on the BTC network remain low. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index froze practically, having risen by only 1 point in a week, from 70 to 71.

And in conclusion, our not-so-serious life hacks column has another tip on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that for this you just need to move to live in Cool Valley in Missouri (USA). The mayor of this town decided to seriously raise the welfare of its 1,500 residents, and to that end promised to transfer $500 to $1,000 to each of them in BTC. At the same time, he put forward one condition: recipients will not be able to sell their bitcoins for five years, which, according to the mayor, will allow them to wait for the price of BTC to rise to half a million dollars.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 01, 2021, 05:31:33 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/LOD9GOW.jpg)

- Hundreds of residents rallied in the capital of El Salvador against the legalization of the first cryptocurrency, Euronews reports. Citizens are concerned about possible increases in corruption due to the replacement of the US dollar with bitcoin
The Salvadoran Association of International Freight Carriers has demanded an amendment to the bill, removing the obligation to accept digital gold as payment. Otherwise, industry officials said they would suspend services. But this initiative of the country's President Nayib Bukele, in addition to opponents, has many supporters. In contrast to transport workers, for example, the legalization of bitcoin was supported by the Salvadoran branch of fast-food restaurant chain KFC.

- Another piece of news is from the field of transport. Backed by Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for owners of upcoming IM electric vehicles. With its help, drivers will be able to earn digital currency for the mileage covered.
Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.
The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.
The IM electric car will go on sale in 2022. According to the manufacturers, the novelty should become a worthy competitor to Tesla: its range on one charge is 1,000 km.

- Venezuelan law enforcers are looking for a 23-year-old man who organized his own kidnapping in order to steal $1.15 million worth of bitcoins from gullible citizens. The attackers allegedly forced him to withdraw the cryptocurrency from the Binance exchange and transfer it to various wallets. The man is accused of fraud and money laundering and is currently on the wanted list.

- Investor John Paulson, whose fortune is estimated by Forbes at $3.5 billion, called the cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.
For the record: John Paulson was named the best private asset manager by Alpha magazine 15 years ago, in 2007. Paulson's fund managed to earn $3.7 billion then at the end of the year, despite the mortgage crisis and the collapse of the American market.

- Analyst Aaron Arnold in his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. He considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 134,800 coins worth over $427 million have already been burned on the ethereum network since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.
The analyst considers lower Ethereum net inflation as a second driver of growth. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.
Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

- Billionaire investor Bill Miller purchased bitcoin through the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). Such information is contained in the reporting, which has been filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), according to The Block. As of June 30, Miller Opportunity Trust owns 1.5 million GBTC shares worth $44.7 million. The size of this position increased to $59 million by September 1 and is 1.55% in the fund's portfolio. 
The second big player whose investment came to light this week is banking giant Morgan Stanley. It has been actively increasing the size of its position in GBTC in recent months. And this is also reflected in the reporting to the SEC. GBTC shares turned out to be included in several of the bank's funds. The largest investment came from Morgan Stanley Insight Fund, which acquired 928.051 GBTC shares for $27.665 million.

- As in other countries around the world, the number of citizens buying digital currencies continues to grow in the USA. And the highest proportion of crypto investors are Newbie trader people under the age of 35. CNBC revealed that 11% of Newbie trader US residents invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the coronavirus pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. (By comparison, stocks were picked by 15%).
60% of those who preferred cryptocurrency stated that they are set for long-term storage of this asset. On the contrary, 21% are just waiting for a convenient moment to profitably sell the previously purchased coins.

- The number of vacancies related to cryptocurrency has grown by 118% over the year. Software development was the most sought-after position in this field, with 29.7% of vacancies. In second place are managerial positions with 10%.

- Experts at Kaspersky Lab discovered the Swarez Trojan, which, among other things, stole cryptocurrency wallet data. This was reported by the press service of the company. The peak of activity of the malware occurred in the spring of 2021. The attackers used the games Among Us, Battlefield 4, Battlefield V, Control, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, FIFA 21, Fortnite, GTA V, Minecraft, NBA 2K21, Need for Speed Heat, PUBG, Rust, The Sims 4 and Titanfall 2. Attempts to download such files were recorded in 45 countries.

- Northstar & Badcharts British analyst and co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes BTC will rise to $100,000 by the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage will be completed for the cryptocurrency.
Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

- PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break through the $100K level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.
Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

-¬Spencer Schiff, son of the famous bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff, wrote that there were big changes in his life in the last year: he went all-in, preferring bitcoin to gold. Back in August 2020, he kept most of his savings in the most popular precious metal but has now decided to transfer all the assets to the main cryptocurrency.
His father Peter Schiff, CEO and global strategist at Euro Pacific Capital, has recently tweeted that he considers those who do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots." He also expressed the opinion that this coin will never reach $100 thousand and compared the hype around the cryptocurrency with tulip mania. However, he also publicly regretted on several occasions that he had not bought bitcoin in the early days of the asset's appearance.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 05, 2021, 09:46:09 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 06 - 10, 2021


EUR/USD: Falling Dollar and Rising Risk Appetite

(https://i.imgur.com/EXLCcxU.jpg)

The majority is not always right. Thus, only 30% of the experts voted for EUR/USD to grow to 1.1900 last week. But they were the ones who proved right. After the release of data from the US labour market on Friday 03 September, the pair soared to a height of 1.1908, and finished five days at 1.1880. The weakening of the US currency continues after Fed chief Jerome Powell's dovish statements in Jackson Hole and amid uncertainty with the timing of the beginning to wind down the fiscal stimulation program (QE).

Fed management cites sustained improvement in the employment situation as a major condition for reducing stimulus. However, ADP data on changes in the number of US private sector employment released on Wednesday was significantly worse than expected, with 374K instead of the projected 613K. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created in August outside the agricultural sector (NFP) added pessimism: the real figure was 3.2 times lower than the forecast (235K instead of 750K). And this despite the fact that the NFP was 1053K in July. All this suggests strongly that the pace of recovery in the US economy is falling, and it is too early to talk of the start of QE reduction and, even more so, of an interest rate rise on the dollar.

As a result, the DXY dollar index (the ratio of USD to a basket of six major foreign currencies) has dropped from 93.63 to 92.07 since August 20, while risk sentiment in the market, on the contrary, has increased. The S&P500 stock index continues to update historic highs, and its chart resembles a north-easterly straight now. It is very similar to the one drawn by the martingale-based expert advisor until... a collapse occurs. A number of experts predict the fate of a bursting bubble in the future for the stock market as well.

As for the EUR/USD pair's future, only 35% of the experts surveyed vote for its continued growth, 20% vote for the pair's fall. The remaining 45% have taken a neutral position in anticipation of clearer signals from the US Federal Reserve regarding the start of QE curtailment.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 85% point north, the remaining 15% give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 75% are directed upward (note that there were only 20% of those a week earlier). Support levels are 1.1845, 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. Resistance levels are 1.1910, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

As for the events of the coming week, the release on September 7 of the data on GDP of the Eurozone for Q2 should be noted. The forecast here is disappointing: it is expected to fall 0.6% compared to a 2.0% increase in the previous period. The ECB's interest rate decision will be known on Thursday September 09, but it is very likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, a subsequent press conference by the European regulator's leadership will be of much greater interest. Finally, Germany's HICP, the Consumer Price Index, which estimates the inflation rate of the country that is the locomotive of the European economy, will be unveiled on Friday, September 10.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

We called this part of the review “Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes” last time and we left the title unchanged this week. Because nothing that would initiate an independent movement of the GBP/USD pair has happened. Just like the European currency, and for the same reasons, the British one has been growing against the dollar since August 20. The two-week high was reached on September 03 at 1.3890, and the last chord of the trading session sounded at 1.3865.

The pair is currently in the central part of the 1.3800-1.4000 channel, where it appears periodically since February 2021. If it goes north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at the level of 1.3960, then 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (20% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 20% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are colored green, 20% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, greens win with a score of 9:1.

As we know, the main indicators of economic recovery and the signal for the start of contraction of monetary stimulus programs are two factors: labour market health and inflation. That is why it is worth paying attention this week to the hearing of the UK Inflation Report, which will take place on Friday September 10.

USD/JPY: Most Unflappable Pair

As a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.80, it first dropped by 20 points, then rose by 80, then dropped again and ended the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.70.

Even the statement of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga about his intention to resign could not influence the yen rate. His popularity was hit by the Tokyo Olympics this summer. Many considered their hosting not a celebration of sport but a fueling of another wave of coronovirus, leaving COVID-19 incidence in the country now three times higher than during the previous waves.

A number of experts consider the departure of Yoshihide Suga a harbinger of possible changes in the economic policy of the Japanese government, in connection with which the Nikkei index rose by 2%, but the yen rate decided not to react to this, showing a truly icy calm.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 35% of them side with the bulls, 45% - with the bears, and 20% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, here it is still impossible to give priority to any of the directions.

Support levels are 109.40, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 109.85, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to get to the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum vs Bitcoin

Amid the continued weakening of the dollar and rising risk appetite, the BTC/USD pair is trying to gain a foothold above the important psychological level of $50,000 for the second week. It broke through this resistance for the third time and reached $51.085 at the time of this writing, on Friday September 03.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index added just 1 point for the week, rising from 71 to 74. But the total crypto market capitalization has grown from $2.021 trillion to $2.275 trillion. And the core cryptocurrency accounts for only about $58bn: bitcoin's dominance continues to decline. It fell from 43.77% to 41.41% in seven days, while ethereum is improving its position step by step. So, if the share of ETH was 18.07% of the total market capitalization on August 28, it was already 20.45% on September 03.

Many analysts and influencers continue to sing difirambs to ethereum, preening that it will push bitcoin back to the second line at some point. A week ago, we cited the opinion of the creator of this altcoin, Vitalik Buterin, who expects the price of ETH to reach $30,000. In this case, the capitalization of the coin will rise to $3 trillion, and exceed the capitalization of all major technology companies in the world.

Analyst Aaron Arnold agrees with Buterin. In his YouTube channel (952 thousand subscribers) he named the fundamental factors that, in his opinion, will provoke the "explosive" growth of ethereum. The expert considers a key feature the recent change in the altcoin blockchain, which introduced a digital coin burning mechanism. The London update was released on ethereum network on August 05, which completely changed the transaction fee mechanism. A portion of the commission that miners previously received as a reward is now burned. According to the Ultrasound.Money service, more than 174,000 coins worth more than $565 million have been burned since the activation of this update. The average burning rate is 3.77 coins per minute.

The analyst named the decrease in net inflation in Ethereum as the second growth factor. According to Arnold's calculations, it is only 1.1% in annual terms at the moment, while the same indicator for bitcoin is at the level of 1.75%.

Arnold also recalled the multiple growth of funds blocked in the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. In his view, this is the third factor that contributes to ethereum's price hike. According to DeFi Pulse, if the volume of blocked funds was $16 billion on January 1 of this year, this figure had already reached $82 billion by August 30 (an increase of 412% since the beginning of the year).

It should be noted that the dynamics of recent months confirms the rosy forecasts for ethereum in full. If BTC has risen in price by about 72% since July 20, ETH has grown by 130%. In the last week alone, this altcoin is up 22%, while bitcoin is up just 2.5%. The advantage of ethereum is also obvious at a distance of 12 months: plus 820% for ETH, plus 350% for BTC.

If Vitalik Buterin predicts the growth of his brainchild to $30,000, you can still hear the figure of $100,000 in the forecasts for the BTC/USD pair. It is exactly the height that British analyst and Northstar & Badcharts co-founder Kevin Wadsworth believes the pair will reach before the end of 2021. After that, the current bullish stage for the cryptocurrency will be completed.

Speaking of the first cryptocurrency, Wadsworth believes that its value will increase "in September, October and, presumably, in November." Some of the leading altcoins (such as ethereum), he said, could also rise significantly, since a rise in prices by 3-4 times is quite likely.

PlanB analyst is also confident that BTC will break the $100,000 level by Christmas. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model.

Bitcoin's prospects for further growth are also indicated by year analysis of cryptocurrency behavior. Analysts at Twitter Root channel are confident that the main driver of BTC is halvings (a 2-time reduction in mining awards). They form a shortage of coins in the market, which positively affects the value of a digital asset. As for bitcoin, it has yet to fulfil the growth potential that halving put into it in May 2020.

Another growth driver, besides halving, is the US Federal Reserve's full-fledged printing press. Moreover, both corporations and individuals get substantial chunks of this dollar "pie". CNBC revealed that 11 per cent of Newbie trader US residents have invested some of the capital they received in the form of assistance from the state during the COVID-19 pandemic in bitcoin and other coins. And 60 per cent of them are set to hold the asset long-term.

On the other hand, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and the "golden beetle" Peter Schiff, said that he considers those who hold and do not sell bitcoins to be "real idiots". Investor John Paulson expressed a similar opinion. This billionaire called cryptocurrency a "bubble" in an interview with Bloomberg. In his view, the digital asset market will “ultimately prove worthless,” so it is not worth investing in it. “Cryptocurrencies are a bubble. I would describe them as a limited supply of nothing. If the demand is greater than the limited supply, the price will rise. But, if demand falls, the price will also fall. None of the cryptocurrencies have intrinsic value,” Paulson explained his point.

And in conclusion, as usual, our not very serious section of life hacks with another piece of advice on how to get rich on cryptocurrency. It turns out that you just need to purchase an electric car of the IM brand for this. Backed by the Internet giant Alibaba, electric car maker Zhiji Auto has developed an app for car owners to earn digital currency per mileage traveled.

Motorists will have to enter information about each kilometer they run in order to enter the mining pool. They will receive the Stone digital currency as a reward. The company plans to issue 500 coins 144 times a day for a start. The issue will be halved every four years to maintain liquidity.

The asset can be exchanged for various services of the company. When the car's mileage reaches 5,000 km, its owner will be able to purchase a next-generation smart driving system for coins or increase the battery capacity to 120 kWh.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 06, 2021, 02:00:21 PM
NordFX Sums up August: British Pound Back at Peak Popularity


(https://i.imgur.com/B5ImXUB.jpg)

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last summer month of 2021.

The leader was once again a trader from India, account No.1584XXX, earning a profit of 326,278 USD. This impressive amount was earned through numerous trades on the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/CHF) and Euro (EUR/USD, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD) pairs.

The representative of China (account No.1397XXX) moved from third to second place with a profit of 210,308 USD, also obtained through trading operations with the British currency (GBP/USD and GBP/JPY pairs). Recall that their result was 179,327 USD in July.

This time the third step of the podium was taken by a NordFX client from Vietnam (account No.1416XXX) who earned 85,467 USD using XAU/USD, AUD/ JPY and... of course still the same pair GBP/USD as trading instruments.

The passive investment services:

- BangBigBossTop1 and EAs for Life signals remain among the leaders in CopyTrading for the second month in a row.

BangBigBossTop1 almost doubled its result over the past month, raising the signal yield from 398% to 729%. At the same time, the maximum drawdown remained the same at 55%. This failure occurred on the first day of summer, June 01, after which the yield curve is creeping upward. However, 55% is a quite serious drawdown, so the signal is still in the high-risk group.

The EAs for Life signal has shown a return of 1602% from November 2020 up to now. However, at the very start, on November 19, the maximum drawdown reached 75%, which is why it can also be classified as high-risk. Interestingly, almost 70% of trades on this signal are all on the same GBP/USD pair.

- Those investors who prefer minimal or moderate risk may find the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA in the NordFX PAMM service, interesting. This manager has increased their capital by 37% at a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other low-risk offers in the PAMM-service as well. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 were 21% over five months with a maximum drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 23,498 USD, was credited in August to a partner from India, account No.1504ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received 6,608 USD;
- and, finally, their colleague from the Middle East (account no. 1569XXX), who earned 3,688 USD in commissions, closes the top three.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 08, 2021, 02:33:15 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. President Nayib Bukele tweeted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes, we will go down in history,” wrote Bukele.
Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. The purchase is part of a new $150m fund approved by the authorities to secure the exchange of bitcoin and dollars.

- Bitcoin has been growing since July 20. And so, on the news that BTC became the official currency of El Salvador, its quotes fell 18% on Tuesday September 7, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.
The World Bank refused to support El Salvador in accepting bitcoin as a legal tender, and leading rating agencies such as Fitch were quick to point out the weaknesses of the country's government's move. In particular, El Salvador's insurance industry will be hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.
At the time of writing this review, the leading cryptocurrency has managed to win back some of its losses, and it is trading at around $46,500 per coin.

- Standard Chartered Global Banking Group analysts have been positive about the prospects for bitcoin and ethereum. The team of researchers compared ethereum to the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Bitcoin, in their opinion, is more like a currency. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach the first cryptocurrency.
Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks are also higher,” the bank said.

- Three-time National Basketball Association of North America (NBA) champion Stephen Curry asked Twitter users for advice on cryptocurrencies. “Just starting to play the crypto game... Do you have any advice? ', wrote the athlete. Several prominent crypto industry participants reacted to the tweet. MicroStrategy chief Michael Saylor said he spent a lot of time thinking about the issue, “and chose bitcoin.” “I bought over $3 billion worth of bitcoin as I consider it the future of digital property,” Saylor wrote.

- Senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets are entering a renewed second-half bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted.
He also characterized investment portfolios that do not have any of these cryptocurrencies as vulnerable. “We envision the future of bitcoin as a digital reserve asset that complements the dollar,” McGlone concluded.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood suggested that the cryptocurrency market is far from ending its rally. Despite the recent rally, the markets show no signs of a price bubble, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims".
The top executive added that cryptocurrencies have become a generational phenomenon that evolves as technology advances. “The average investor does not understand how provocative the next five to fifteen years will be, as these S-curves feed off each other and enter exponential growth trajectories that we have not seen before,” says Wood.
At the same time, the expert believes that regulation is necessary for the maturity of the sector, which will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

- US-based Crypto Asset Recovery company specializes in guessing “hundreds of millions or billions” of passwords. Its experts have concluded that bitcoin wallets whose passwords have been lost by their owners currently store billions of dollars’ worth of coins. At the same time, access to approximately 68-90 thousand BTC can be restored. This is about $4 billion at current prices.
According to a report from another company, Chainalsis, up to 20% of the existing 18.5 million bitcoins have been lost.

- According to the latest research, 17% of Australians own cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin is the most popular digital asset, with Ethereum, Dogecoin and Bitcoin Cash taking the second, third and fourth places.
The majority of holders (30%) reported that they purchased crypto assets in order to diversify their portfolio. Second on the list of reasons (24%) was the rise in the price of bitcoins and altcoins. There are twice as many men as women among cryptocurrency holders. This is while the number of women holding crypto wallets has doubled since the beginning of the year.

- The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust believes that bitcoin has significant growth potential, as this asset can act as a digital analogue of gold.
Miller Opportunity Trust has recently announced the purchase of 1.5 million shares of the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust fund for $44.7 million. The report to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) notes that the investment was made in anticipation of the asset's growth. Fund strategists and analysts have been monitoring bitcoin performance for a long time and chose the best time to buy.
“Bitcoin has been falling this quarter and the trust's shares have been traded at a significant discount to the value of the underlying asset, providing additional upside potential. While gold has a capitalization of $11 trillion, bitcoin only reaches $900 billion, a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk-to-reward ratio is attractive,” Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 12, 2021, 09:38:01 AM
Forex Traders Association Recognizes NordFX Customer Support as Best Service of 2021


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What is the most important thing for a broker? Is it money? No, it isn't. Is it computers and software? It is not either. The most important thing is the clients, their trust, and their satisfaction with the level of services received. Therefore, the awards that the broker receives from traders' associations are of particular value. This is exactly the award from the Forex Traders Association, which has recognized NordFX Customer Support as the best in 2021.

Forex Traders Association (FTA) is a grassroots organization of 89 affiliates in America, Europe and Asia. FTA members represent individuals employed in the financial services industry across varying business models. FTA educates its members on market structure issues while representing their interests with legislators, regulators, and other industry associations. FTA events keep attendees informed on industry trends and provide unique networking opportunities, which contribute to career development and productivity. FTA is committed to promoting goodwill and fostering high standards of integrity in accord with its founding principle, dictum meum pactum, my word is my bond.

Since 2017, the members of this association have been evaluating various financial institutions in a wide variety of categories. And this year, 2021, NordFX has won in such an important category as Customer Support.

Customer Support can be called the face of the company, since it is this service that traders have to contact most often, addressing the most pressing issues related to opening an account, specifics of trading and investing, payments and partnerships. It is very important that this support is prompt and skilled. And in such a large international company as NordFX, it is also multilingual.

Over the years, traders from almost 190 countries have opened their accounts with NordFX, and it is very important that they communicate with the company representatives in a language they understand. You can currently ask your questions and get answers in 12 most popular and widespread languages. This can be done in a variety of ways: by phone, email, online chat, on forums and on social media, choosing the most convenient one. According to the assurances of the Customer Support experts, they will be glad not only to answer your questions, but also to hear criticisms and wishes. After all, it is so important not to rest on what you have achieved, but to constantly move forward.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 12, 2021, 12:21:43 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 13 - 17, 2021


EUR/USD: Eurozone QE Recalibration

The ECB meeting on Thursday 09 September went off as expected with no surprises. The interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. The European regulator has proposed a “dovish” reduction in the monetary stimulus program (QE). More precisely, according to Christine Lagarde, the bank's governor, it is not even about “tapering” but “recalibrating” the program. And the decline in asset purchases in Q4 is just a reversal of the decision made in March to increase them. In doing so, the ECB remains flexible, and may change the pace of purchases early next year if necessary.

It is likely that the regulator does not want to take any sharp moves until its meeting in December, when it will have to present a clearer plan to wind down QE. In the meantime, it will monitor the development of the situation. The results of the parliamentary election in Germany, which will be held on September 26, will be of great importance. Especially since this will be the first election since 2005 in which the Christian Democratic Union will not be led by Angela Merkel.

 In addition to the “recalibration” decision, the ECB raised its 2021 forecast for Eurozone GDP from 4.6% to 5.0% and for inflation from 1.9% to 2.2%. At the same time, the bank expects consumer price growth to fall to 1.7% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. This suggests that its ultra soft monetary policy will last for a very long time. And there is no need to talk about raising interest rates earlier than the end of 2023 - early 2024.

Economic growth sides with the bulls on the EUR/USD pair, while the monetary policy sides with the bears. There have been no clear signals from the ECB, and they are unlikely to arrive until December. Therefore, the market will still be waiting for them from the US Fed to decide which currency to prefer.

The long life of the European QE program has been mentioned above. The Federal Reserve may begin to cut its QE already this year and complete it by the end of 2022. This view is held by the hawkish lobby in the leadership of the US Central Bank. FOMC member Michelle Bowman has even specifically stressed that disappointing employment statistics for August would not get the Fed out of the way.

This balance of strength plays on the dollar side and should send the EUR/USD pair south. At the moment, 50% of experts agree with this, supported by graphical analysis. The pair finished last week at 1.1810, and now it is expected to be supported at levels 1.1800, 1.1750, 1.1705 and 1.1665. 15% of analysts expect the pair to consolidate in the 1.1800 zone, while the remaining 35% are looking north. Resistance levels are 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

The indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 50% point north, 10% south, and the remaining 40% are neutral. Among trend indicators, 35% are colored green, 65% are colored red.

The US economic calendar next week looks quite busy, and all the important statistics will be focused on the country's consumer market. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Tuesday, September 14, retail sales on Thursday, September 16, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will be released the following day.

GBP/USD: Movement with Almost Zero Result

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Having drawn a parabola with a low of 1.3725, the GBP/USD pair returned on Friday September 10 to almost the same place it started on Monday (1.3865) and ended the five-day run at 1.3830. It never managed to break beyond the central part of channel 1.3700-1.4000, where it has been intermittently since February 2021.

If it continues to move north (this scenario is now supported by 60% of analysts), then the nearest strong resistance will be met at 1.3909, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. In case of the opposite development (30% of experts' votes), it will be supported in zones 1.3730, 1.3665 and 1.3600. The remaining 10% of analysts vote for a sideways trend.

As for the oscillators on D1, 70% are colored green, 15% have taken a neutral position, and another 20% indicate that the pair is overbought. In trend indicators, like a week ago, the greens win 9-1.

Events in the coming week include the release of unemployment data in the UK on Tuesday, September 14, and statistics on the country's consumer market on Wednesday, September 15.

USD/JPY: Another Zero Result Pair

Being a safe haven, the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time again, having started the five-day week at 109.70, it ended the week almost at the same place where it began, at the level of 109.85. Moreover, the trading range has become even narrower, keeping within 85 points: from 109.60 to 110.45. Those who are actively trading are hardly happy with such volatility. Although, on the other hand, it allows you to quite accurately place Stop Loss and Take Profit orders and taking into account the minimum spreads and leverage up to 1: 1000, you can make significant profits with the NordFX broker even in such a narrow corridor.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears, 15% - with the bulls, and 35% have taken a neutral position. As for the indicators on D1, the red ones have 60% advantage among oscillators, the green ones have 10%, and those that have taken a neutral, grey position - 30%. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

Support levels are 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The bears' dream is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.00, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: September 07: Rainy Day

The past week on the crypto market can be reduced to one day, Tuesday September 07. A law came into force in El Salvador on that day recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of settlement on par with the dollar. The country's Newbie trader president, Nayib Bukele,  twitted about this three minutes before midnight local time. “In three minutes we will go down in history,” he wrote. Earlier, the head of state confirmed that the government of El Salvador acquired the first 200 BTC. Bitcoin has been rallying since July 20 and has jumped above $52,000 since this announcement.

Roughly 20% of the country's GDP comes from remittances that Salvadorans working abroad send to their relatives. The huge commissions in USD that have to be paid are extremely unprofitable and enrich the US financial structures. This is what has been one of the main reasons for bitcoin adoption. However, for most Salvadorans, a third of whom do not even use the internet, digital assets still remain a mystery behind seven seals. According to surveys, about 70% of the population fear the innovations, and pensioners believe that the government wants to take away their USD pensions in this way. The result of these concerns and misunderstandings were protests and demonstrations that swept across the country.

The World Bank refused to support the initiative of Nayib Bukele, which jeopardizes the receipt of tranches from the IMF. According to analysts, El Salvador does not have specific laws to address the many nuances of bitcoin use, increasing the risks associated with money laundering and terrorist financing . And leading rating agencies such as Fitch believe El Salvador's insurance industry will be particularly hit. Bonds rated B- are already circulating in it, and now the situation will be aggravated by the presence of an unstable cryptocurrency.

September 7 clearly showed how unstable it is. In a matter of hours, bitcoin prices fell 18%, from $52,870 to $43,205, dragging down the entire crypto market.

Then the leading cryptocurrency managed to win back some of the losses, and it is trading in the range of $45,000-46,000 per coin at the time of writing the review, on Friday September 10.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted into the fear zone, dropping from 74 to 46 points. The total crypto market capitalization fell below the important psychological level of $2 trillion to $1.975 trillion by September 08, but then rose to $2.100 trillion by the end of the working week.

Despite what has happened, many experts are still positive about the prospects for both bitcoin and ethereum. For example, senior strategist Mike McGlone called the $100,000 mark for bitcoin and the $5,000 mark for ethereum as "the path of least resistance" in the September Bloomberg Crypto Outlook report. “Crypto assets enter a renewed second-half year bull market after a serious drop from previous highs,” the Bloomberg expert noted, adding that he sees “bitcoin's future as a digital reserve asset to complement the dollar.”

The management of the billionaire Bill Miller's Miller Opportunity Trust also speaks about the significant growth potential of the BTC/USD pair, calling bitcoin a digital analogue of gold. “Gold capitalization is $11 trillion, bitcoin is only $900 billion, which is a significant lag. We are in the early days of bitcoin adoption and the asset will be very volatile, but we believe the risk to reward ratio is attractive," the Miller Opportunity Trust said in a statement filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood also believes that the cryptocurrency market is far from the end of the rally. There are no signs of a price bubble in the markets, she said. “We think bitcoin is much more than a store of value or digital gold. This is a new global monetary system that is completely decentralized and not subject to politicians' whims". That being said, Cathy Wood thinks the next five to fifteen years will be very provocative, causing the quotes to draw S-shaped curves. And therefore, for the sector to mature, regulation is needed that will affect bitcoin in the most positive way.

Analysts at the international banking group Standard Chartered have also given a positive assessment of the outlook for bitcoin and ethereum. They compared the first with currency, and the second with the financial market, where lending, insurance and exchange transactions take place. Therefore, given the wider range of ETH use cases, its capitalization may eventually reach that of the first cryptocurrency.

Standard Chartered predicts bitcoin prices in the $50,000-$175,000 range and ethereum in the $26,000-$35,000 range. Thus, these cryptocurrencies should grow threefold and tenfold, respectively. “While the return on ETH may outperform BTC in the future, the risks associated with it are also higher,” the bank representatives said.

On average, 20% of analysts agree that the BTC/USD pair will cross over $50,000 in the coming week, their number increases to 40% onthe monthly forecast, and 80% agree that it will happen before the New Year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 15, 2021, 02:24:18 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Analytics software provider MicroStrategy has purchased an additional 5,050 BTC at $48,099 for approximately $243 million. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.
MicroStrategy was the first public company to invest a portion of its equity capital ($ 250 million) in bitcoin in August 2020. Later, the company's board of directors approved a policy to increase investment in digital gold at the expense of cash reserves. Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

- US citizen of Canadian origin Galeb Alaumari was found guilty of helping North Korean military intelligence officers launder funds obtained as a result of hacking of cryptocurrency exchanges and hacker attacks on various companies and financial institutions. The WannaCry ransomware stole more than $1.3 billion in total. This includes the cyberattack on Sony Pictures Entertainment, the attempted hacking of banks in Vietnam, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Mexico, Malta, and the theft of various personal data.
Galeb Alaumari said he was responsible for cashing out funds through fake bank accounts and cryptocurrency. The defendant also confessed to sending out phishing emails. One of the victims of the scheme was a university in Canada, which transferred $9.4 million to fraudsters, believing it was communicating with a major construction company. The US Federal court sentenced Alaumari to 11 years in prison and a $30 million fine.

- Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.
The head of Ark Invest noted that if she had to choose one cryptocurrency, she wouldn't hesitate to prefer bitcoin “because states now consider it a means of payment.”
Wood also highlighted the potential of ethereum. “Ethereum is experiencing an explosion of developer activity thanks to NFT and DeFi. I am fascinated by what is happening in DeFi, which is dramatically reducing the cost of infrastructure for financial services. Although I know that the financial industry does not welcome this right now. We are nevertheless likely to continue with the 60% bitcoin and 40% ethereum strategy,” she added.
Earlier, analysts at Standard Chartered bank predicted bitcoin to rise to $175,000 and ethereum to $35,000.

- After El Salvador recognized bitcoin as legal tender, Panama decided to follow suit. A cryptocurrency bill has been submitted to the Panamanian Congress. Panama does not have either a central bank currently or its own official currency, and the US dollar is used as a means of payment.
If the law is passed, legal entities and individuals of Panama will be able to freely use BTC and ETH as a means of payment for any government or commercial transactions. In addition, it is proposed to transfer public records to the blockchain and digitize legislative and administrative acts. “Such a move will help create a lot of jobs, attract investment and make the government more transparent,” the bill's initiators said.
Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

- A recent survey by Sherlock Communications found that almost half of Brazilians agree that bitcoin should be accepted as the country's official currency, as El Salvador did. 48% of respondents voted for this (17% support without any doubt, 31% with some conditions). Only 21% rejected this idea (9% categorically, 12% moderately). The remaining respondents (31 percent) maintain a neutral stance.

- Artist Monica Rizzolli earned 1623 ETH (about $5.4 million at the time of the transaction) for the sale of the NFT series "Fragments of an Infinite Field" on the Art Blocks marketplace. The collection, consisting of 1,024 generative images, sold out on September 13 in less than an hour. The price for individual copies started from 10 ETH. Well-known NFT collectors Cozomo de' Medici and JDH spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to buy individual paintings.
The main parameter for creating the composition was the seasons, which set the colors and the phenomena depicted in the picture. Subsequently, some of the collection's items were resold on the OpenSea marketplace for 69 ETH (about $229,000).

- The State Bureau of Investigation of Ukraine has established the involvement of three employees of the cyber department of the Security Service of this country (SBU) in the kidnapping of a cryptocurrency trader.
According to the investigation, SBU agents received information about the trader having a large amount in cryptocurrency in autumn 2020. They organized his abduction, took him to the forest and beat him for an hour and a half, demanding that $200,000 be handed over to them. After being refused, the agents moved the abductee to police headquarters. They continued to extort funds There, lowering the amount to $80,000. The trader was forced to agree, and called his wife, who transferred 7 BTC (at the time of the transaction, the equivalent of the ransom amount) to the cryptocurrency wallet specified by the extortionists.
All three face charges of robbery with violence, kidnapping and abuse of authority. The investigation also examines the involvement of eight other SBU officers in the crime.

- Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stöferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

- Crypto trading veteran Ton Weiss predicts that bitcoin (BTC) will complete the current correction relatively soon and then rise sharply to six-digit levels.
Weiss explained during the new strategy session that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.
According to Weiss, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After which it will bounce back sharply from that support and go up.
“The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 18, 2021, 01:58:21 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 20 - 24, 2021


EUR/USD: Awaiting US Fed Decision

The dollar continues to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair moves south. Starting on Monday September 13 at 1.1810, it ends the five-day run at 1.1730. The movement is certainly not very strong, only 80 points. But it must be taken into account that it was 1.1908 two weeks ago, on September 03.

 US retail sales statistics were much better than expected. Sales showed a 0.7% increase in August, although according to the forecast, should have decreased by 0.8%. The number of repeat applications for unemployment benefits, which was supposed to decrease by 72K, fell by 187K.

Such strong statistics raised the likelihood that the Fed will announce the curtailment of $ 120 billion of the quantitative easing (QE) program to 55% at its next meeting on September 21-22.

As a result of the dollar emission, carried out by the FRS for the last year and a half, the US national debt has grown to 130% of GDP, and the budget deficit exceeds a trillion dollars. As a result, it is not just about winding down the fiscal and credit stimulus, but also a shift to a tight fiscal policy. The Democratic Party and President Biden's Administration have introduced a draft tax reform to the U.S. Congress, which includes a sharp increase in federal income taxes. If passed, the tax rate in such states as New York or California could exceed 60%. In addition, a three per cent wealth tax is proposed for the first time in US history.

The stock market responded to all this news with active sales. The S&P500 index fell 4,550 to 4435, the Dow Jones dropped 35517 to 34510 in two weeks. The gold price also fell 4.5%.

As for Europe, it was gripped by the real panic associated with the record rise in gas prices, which at one point reached $970 per 1,000 cubic metres. (It was 2.8 times lower a year ago). In anticipation of the autumn-winter heating season, the necessary energy reserves are only 75% (according to other estimates, only 50%). Such energy shortages could not only drive up prices but also reduce production. And this is fraught with a new recession and will definitely not benefit the common European currency.

By far the most important event of the coming week will be the Federal Reserve meeting on September 21-22. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0.25%. Therefore, first of all, investors are waiting for signals or even a concrete decision about the beginning of the QE curtailment. As we have written before, more members of the Fed's leadership are taking a hawkish stance and supporting a reduction in the asset purchase program as early as this year. And if the hawks win at this meeting, we can expect a sharp strengthening of the dollar, and a further fall in stock indices and gold prices.

At the moment, 60% of experts vote for the rise of the US currency and the decline of the EUR/USD pair, while 30%, on the contrary, believe that nothing  will happen at the Federal Reserve meeting and the pair will win back north. The remaining 10% of analysts abstain from forecasts.

The indicator readings on D1 are as follows. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored red and 25% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among the trend indicators, 100% point to the south.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1665, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1770, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

In addition to the Fed meeting, events in the coming week include the release of German and Eurozone PMI statistics on Thursday September 23.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The British pound, although down against the dollar, is generally holding up better than the common European currency. As expected by most analysts (60%), the GBP/USD pair went north on Monday and tested the 1.3900 high the next day, helped by good statistics from the UK labor market. This was followed by a reversal, a gradual decline and the pair's finish at 1.3730. As a result, it failed to update the two-week low of 1.3725, although it was very keen to do so.

The GBP/USD pair hardly reacted to the above forecast inflation data in Britain (CPI rose 3.2% in August vs. 2.0% in July vs. 2.9% forecast). However, such indicators reinforce the hawks' position at the Bank of England. So far, the forces of "hawks" and "doves" are equal there. According to Bank Governor Andrew Bailey, four members supported raising the key interest rate and four opposed at the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Analysts believe that the likely rate hike in February 2022 will support the pound and further declines in the GBP/USD pair will be limited. If that expectation grows into confidence, the UK currency could move up strongly.

We will not only have an important meeting of the US Federal Reserve this week, but also a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, September 23, from which investors also want to receive signals on the timing of tightening monetary policy. And here, in contrast to the EUR/USD forecast, most experts side with the pound. 65% of analysts vote for the growth of the GBP/USD pair, and 35% for its further decline. But the technical indicators' readings are 100% in line with the previous pair.

Resistances are at levels 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3700-1.3725, 1.3665 and 1.3600.

USD/JPY: Zero Again

(https://i.imgur.com/sMHxrJp.jpg)

The coming week can be safely called the week of the central banks. In addition to the US Federal Reserve and Bank of England meetings, investors will learn the views of the People's Bank of China and the Bank of Japan on the economic situation in their countries on Wednesday September 22, as well as decisions on interest rates of their national currencies. With a probability close to 100%, the yen rate will remain the same, at minus 0.1%. But BOJ leaders have a lot more to think about: they need to fill the economy's 22 trillion yen (approx. $200 billion) deficit.

However, the USD/JPY pair reacts to such figures and the news quite calmly. Unnecessary excitement is not needed in a quiet Japanese harbor.

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. So this time, having started the five-day week at 109.85, it finished the week almost at the same place where it started, at the level of 109.95. At the same time, the experts' forecast can be considered to have come true: most of them (50%) sided with the bears last week and 35% took a neutral stance. Everything went exactly according to this scenario: at first the pair went down sharply, and then, having reached a strong medium-term support at 109.10, it failed to break it, turned around and went back.

The pair was supported by positive US retail sales statistics. In addition, according to a number of experts, the outflow of Japanese capital into foreign bonds did not allow it to go far down. Japanese investors hardly bought any bonds from other countries in 2021. But the sharp rise in US Treasuries yields pushed them to buy more than 1.76 billion yen worth of securities this Thursday. That has become a record since last November.

The experts' forecast for the near future looks like this: 50% of them side with the bears once again, 35% with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral stance. As for the indicators on D1, there is a complete diversity among the oscillators after such week results, while the green ones have a convincing advantage for the trend indicators.

Support levels are unchanged: 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems already unrealizable) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.15, 110.25, 110.55, 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Black to Slightly Greenish

El Salvador entered into force a law recognizing bitcoin as a legal means of payment on Tuesday, September 7. And the quotes of the flagship cryptocurrency fell by 18%  in a matter of hours: from $52,870 to $43,205. The market is slowly trying to recover after this "black" day. At the time of writing this review, the BTC/USD pair had risen to the $47,300-48,000 zone. Of course, it's not much, which is why the past week can only be described as “slightly greenish.”

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by only 2 points, from 46 to 48, and is in the central neutral zone. The total crypto market capitalization remained virtually unchanged, at $2.120 trillion compared to $2.100 trillion a week ago.

The news background looks “slightly greenish” too. The most interesting news is that Panama has decided to follow El Salvador's example. A draft law on cryptocurrencies was presented to the Congress of this country. Panama currently uses the US dollar as a means of payment. If the law is passed, it will also be possible to use BTC and ETH. Unlike El Salvador, the Panamanian option does not provide for the mandatory use of cryptocurrencies, that is, citizens and companies will be able to freely decide whether they want to accept cryptocurrencies or be limited to just the dollar.

The law has not yet been passed, but analysts are already wondering how the market will react to its entry into force. Should we wait for another "black" day of the calendar, as in the case of El Salvador?

One more piece of news. Analytics software provider MicroStrategy additionally purchased 5,050 BTC at $48,099. This was announced by the head of the company Michael Saylor. As of September 12, MicroStrategy owns 114,042 BTC. A total of $3.16 billion was spent on their purchase, thus the average cost was $27,713 per coin.

Other US companies that have made similar large investments in cryptocurrency include Jack Dorsey's Square and Elon Musk's Tesla. Now they are set to be joined by billionaire Alan Howard's Brevan Howard Asset Management hedge fund, which opened a dedicated BH Digital division for these purposes.

Influencers continue to predict a great future for major cryptocurrencies. So, Austrian economist Ronald-Peter Stoferle, managing partner of investment company Incrementum AG, said that "in five to ten years, bitcoin will rise to heights that we cannot currently imagine." At the same time, the top manager noted that the next phase of bitcoin's growth has not yet begun. According to him, the rise in price of bitcoin will occur when the asset becomes "a means of inflation protection during the ongoing large monetary experiments."

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood expects bitcoin to rise to $500,000 within five years. In a conversation with CNBC, Wood explained that the validity of her forecast will depend on whether companies continue to diversify their bitcoin reserves and whether institutional investors decide to place 5% of assets in it.

The head of Ark Invest also highlighted the potential of Ethereum, saying that her company will likely continue to adhere to a 60% Bitcoin and 40% Ethereum strategy.

In terms of shorter-term forecasts, crypto trading veteran Ton Vays believes that the BTC/USD pair will complete the current correction relatively soon, and then rise sharply to six-digit levels. Vays explained that the recent move in the BTC price is reminiscent of July, when the flagship cryptocurrency fell to a one-year low below $29,000 and then aggressively rose to $52,000 in less than six weeks.

According to Ton Vays, bitcoin is likely to fall short and give traders an opportunity to buy near the $40,000 level. After that, it will sharply bounce off this support and rush upward. “The $40,000 low will come either next week or may be delayed until early October, and then we will cross that area with a rise to $50,000 in mid to late October. We will be over $65,000 by early November, and probably $100,000 by the end of December,” he said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 22, 2021, 02:33:21 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/rxkaRQx.jpg)

- The risk of default by Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies, which has accumulated 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) in debt, triggered panic in financial markets on September 20. Investors began to get rid of risk assets, tumbling stock markets. The cryptocurrency market did not escape the sell-off either. While bitcoin was at $52,870 on Monday, it fell short term to $39,666 on Wednesday, losing up to 25% of its value.
Evergrande's structure includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in multiple countries, according to Bloomberg. The 2 trillion-yuan liability is the world largest debt and is equivalent to 2% of China's GDP. Evergrande's net worth is about $3.9 billion, nearly 80 times less than its $309 billion debt.

- The US Treasury has included the Suex cryptocurrency exchanger in the sanctions list, as well as 25 addresses in the bitcoin, ethereum and tether networks. According to the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), at least eight ransomware, scam projects and darknet marketplaces passed through Suex.
Chainalysis, an analytics company involved in the investigation, found that Suex had received more than $480 million in bitcoin since February 2018. At least $160 million of that amount is related to illegal activities.

- The president of Euro Pacific Capital, a well-known supporter of gold Peter Schiff once again criticized bitcoin and allowed the imminent end of the "cryptocurrency bubble". “There are now more than 12,000 tokens, 84 of which currently have a market cap above $1 billion. There's nothing special about bitcoin. Altcoin supply will continue to grow until the cryptocurrency bubble bursts. Supply will exceed demand and prices will collapse almost overnight," Schiff wrote. In his view, the first cryptocurrency would “only take money from the pockets of people stupid enough to buy it.”
In the comments, the financier reaffirmed his commitment to the precious metal and pointed out that the value of gold is "in its usefulness." “You can do more with gold than with any other metal, and it does not lose its unique properties over time,” said Schiff.

- Bitcoin is a monetary standard that will become a global reserve currency one day. This opinion was expressed by the head of SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. He urged people to learn more about the crypto industry, even if they are skeptical about the digital asset market. According to him, it is important to understand “why you don’t want to own digital gold”.
“Bitcoin is volatile because it is at an early stage of adoption. Amazon had the same volatile curve 24 years ago. But if you invested $10,000 in Amazon shares at the IPO, you would receive $21 million today,” explained Scaramucci. He advised newcomers to the crypto industry to allocate up to 5% of their investment portfolio to digital assets, explaining the recommendation as high profits if the market grows and low losses if it collapses.

- An anonymous bitcoin wallet owner who bought $8.1k worth of cryptocurrency in 2012 has come forward almost 10 years later. According to the profile publication Decrypt, their account held more than 616 bitcoins. During its storage, each coin has increased in value nearly 3,500 times, with the total value of its assets approaching $28 million.

- The fair price of Ethereum based on network activity is $1,500, JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou said in a Markets Insider commentary. “We're looking at hashrate and unique address counts to try to understand the value of ethereum,” added the JPMorgan strategist. According to him, the second-most capitalized cryptocurrency network is less attractive than its price suggests. Panigirtzoglou noted the growing competition from Solana, Cardano and other blockchains.
For reference, the ETH price has dropped 40% from $4,020 to $2,650 this week from September 20-22.

- The opposite point of view is held by cryptocurrency trader and analyst Lark Davis. He believes that the ETH rate will reach $10,000 in the coming weeks. The analyst notes that large investors, banks and corporations continue to invest in the ethereum ecosystem.
Davis cited its limited supply in the market as another factor in favor of the growth of this altcoin. Currently, the reserves of the second cryptocurrency on cryptocurrency wallets are at record lows. This shows the reluctance of investors to sell their holdings in ETH. “87 per cent of coins have not moved for more than three months. 87 per cent! That's crazy, “ the analyst exclaimed.
In addition, a significant shortage of ethereum is created by burning of underlying transaction fees as well as by an increase in ethereum 2.0 staking deposits.

- While the price of bitcoin has climbed from $31,000 to $52,000 since the end of July, long-term holders have sold the coins they purchased between the $18,000 and $31,000 levels, consistently making a profit of about $1 billion per day. This data is provided in the latest report by Glassnode. Long-term in this classification refers to holders who received their coins more than 155 days ago.
“Note that these prices formed in the 2020-2021 bull market and suggest that long-term bitcoin investors may be becoming more active traders, record profits, use derivatives to hedge risks, or speculate more than in Q2,” Glassnode experts write. “This may also suggest uncertainty in the current market structure, as coins that have been purchased at close to current prices are being spent.”
At the same time, the authors note that despite the increased sales from this group, there was also a strong demand. As confirmation, they point to the fact that the aggregate balance of bitcoin on the exchanges continued to decline and hit a new multi-year low of 13% of turnover before the collapse on September 20.

- The FBI received over 1,800 complaints related to cryptocurrency fraud on dating sites between January 1, 2021, and July 31, 2021. Victims' losses are estimated at $133.4 million.
People are more likely to suffer from depression and loneliness during the pandemic, so dating and socializing apps have become very popular. First, the scammers establish "contact" with the potential victim. After getting the victim's trust, the attacker claims to be versed in cryptocurrency investments and trading and directs the person to a fraudulent site. Once a user has invested a certain amount, the scammer allows them to withdraw the “first profit”: a small amount of money, thus gaining the trust of the victim. The scammer then advises the user to deposit a larger sum. If the “client” stops receiving funds, then communication with the client ends as well.

- Financial market experts have recently conducted a study, the subject of which was the proposal of the famous car manufacturer Henry Ford to replace gold with the so-called "energy currency". The issue was raised by him in the New York Tribune as early as 1921. The study culminated in the fact that Ford's proposed project to launch a new currency is strikingly similar to the description of BTC, which was presented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The front page of the newspaper featured an article detailing the "energy currency" that Ford believed could end wars and become the backbone of a new era's monetary system.
The auto industrialist proposed replacing gold with a currency that would fully function on the basis of "units of force", for which he could build a huge hydroelectric power station. Thus, the potentially created currency would have been able to become the most stable and secured monetary unit of the time and would prevent a massive increase in the rich profiting from speculation with gold.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 25, 2021, 12:22:53 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for September 27 - October 01, 2021


EUR/USD: Close Start of QE End

The Fed did not make any changes to its monetary policy at its meeting on September 21-22. However, the regulator made it clear in its commentary that it was possibly ready to start a gentle tapering of the monetary stimulus (QE) program as early as November.

More than half of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members believe that interest rate hikes will begin a few months after the end of QE, that is, even before the end of 2022. In total, in the period 2022-2024 the Fed plans to raise rates at least 6 times. (For comparison, the ECB will only start doing this in three years).

Such prospects were in favor of the dollar, the DXY index rose to 93.498, and the EUR/USD pair renewed its monthly minimum, falling to 1.1683.

There was a slim chance that the start of QE tapering would be announced now. But that hasn't happened, and the Fed will continue to print new dollars for now in a volume of at least $120bn a month. The amount of money on US household balance sheets increased to $16.5 trillion in Q2 and will continue to grow in the near future (it was $12.7 trillion at the end of 2019). But there is bound to come a time when the population starts spending that money supporting the American economy after QE winds down.

Such statistics have given investors confidence in a bright future and revived their risk appetites, pushing the S&P500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones stock indexes up again. By the end of the week, the stock market had virtually compensated for the losses suffered on Monday due to information about the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande, one of China's largest construction companies. Its debt of 2 trillion yuan ($309 billion) is the world largest  and is nearly 80 times its net worth (about $3.9 billion). According to Bloomberg, Evergrande includes 200 offshore and 2,000 Chinese companies operating in many countries, so the bankruptcy of such a giant would deal a powerful blow to the global economy.

The recovery of investors' interests in risky assets and the outflow of money to the stock market reversed the trend of the EUR/USD pair to the north on Thursday. The weakening of the dollar accelerated after the publication of weak data from the US labor market.

Initial jobless claims rose to 351,000 in the week, against the forecast of 320,000. The number of repeated applications for state benefits increased to 2.8 million. This is certainly not a disaster, but a wake-up call for the Fed. And if the NFP and other indicators, which will be published on October 8, turn out to be disappointing as well, the regulator may consider delaying QE tapering for a more distant period.

Both of these factors helped EUR/USD bulls raise the pair to 1.1750 on September 23. As for the end of the working week, the pair struck a final chord at around 1.1715 after the speech of FRS Chairman Jerome Powell on Friday evening.

The fact that the US Central Bank can start winding down QE in 1-2 months and complete the process by mid-2022, after which it will proceed with an interest rate hike, allows forecast a stronger dollar in the medium term. Most experts (65%) expect a rise in the US currency and a further decline in the EUR/USD pair in the coming week. They are supported by 85% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1. The remaining 35% of analysts vote in favor of the pair's growth, and 15% of oscillators also indicate that it is oversold.

Support levels are 1.1705, 1.1685, 1.1600 and 1525. Resistance levels are 1.1750, 1.1800, 1.1845, 1.1908, 1.1975, 1.2025 and 1.2100.

Of the events to come, Germany's federal elections, which will be held on Sunday 26 September and after which Chancellor Angela Merkel will leave office, should be noted. US capital and durable goods orders will be released on Monday September 27. There will be statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone on the last day of the month, as well as data on the US GDP. And finally, the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released on Friday October 01.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Hawks Win

The past week can be safely called the week of Central banks. Not only the US Federal Reserve, but also the Banks of England, Japan and Switzerland flourished it with their meetings. And while the latter two are not ready to sweep course just yet, the UK regulator has erupted with hawkish rhetoric all of a sudden.

The Bank of England has been extremely passive over the past few years, following in the wake of the ECB and the Fed. And it lasted until the middle of last week. But, apparently, leaving the EU made such behavior impossible. At its meeting on Thursday, September 23, the bank made decisions that made the market literally flinch, and the GBP/USD pair soar by 140 points, from 1.3608 to 1.3748. The regulator not only announced its plans to tighten monetary policy, but also outlined the timing of the refinancing rate increase. The first increase to 0.25% is due in May 2022 and it will rise to 0.50% in December.

In contrast to the Fed's vague timetable, the Bank of England's plan outlined fairly clear milestones, which, as already stated, the market received with enthusiasm. But the GBP/USD pair did not go above 1.3748, because despite the lack of concrete figures at the moment, the Fed's massive plan to end QE will be implemented, and in a short enough time frame. This cooled the fervor of the pound supporters, and as a result, the week-long bout of bulls and bears on the GBP/USD pair ended with a victory for the latter: starting the five-day run at 1.3730, it ended it at 1.3670.

Technical analysis is also ­on the bear side: both oscillators and trend indicators are red on D1. It is not only the trend of the last two weeks that affects, but also the dynamics of the three months of the past summer. But as for the experts who forecast the week ahead, the vote is 50 to 50.

Resistances are at levels 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810, 1.3910, then 1.3960, 1.4000 and 1.4100. The bulls aim to refresh the June 01 high at 1.4250. Supports are in zones 1.3640, 1.3600, 1.3570 and 1.3520.

In terms of macro statistics, the UK GDP for Q2 2021 will be released on Thursday 30 September. And, while the previous value was positive (+4.8%), it is now forecast to go negative, minus 1.5%.

USD/JPY: Japanese Doves Lose

The USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. This time too, having started the five-day period at 109.95, it reached a height of 110.78 by the end of the week, and ended the trading session at 110.75.

Unlike other central banks in advanced economies, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. That is why the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

The start of the week was good for it: the risk aversion triggered by the possible bankruptcy of Evergrande pushed the pair USD/JPY down to the horizon of 109.10. However, things went wrong later. Investors wanted profit again, turning to risky assets. After the Fed meeting, the 10-year US treasuries yield soared above 1.44%. In fact, the yield spread on Japan's 10-year bonds and similar US bonds has gone beyond the recent consolidation in favor of US bonds. And such a balance of strength played into the hands of USD/JPY bulls, weakening the yen's position.

If the Bank of Japan continues to maintain dovish policy and the US Fed actively winds down its fiscal stimulus program, the yen will not feel good. And the USD/JPY pair will still take the 112.00 high by storm. The Japanese currency can be saved by either another drop in demand for risk assets or simply market reluctance to move the pair above the established medium-term corridor.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the USD/JPY pair can get close to 112.00. But only half of the analysts vote for it to move above that level. The second half believes that the pair will return to the above-mentioned corridor again.

As for the indicators on D1, 65% of the oscillators look north, the rest are either colored neutral gray or signal the pair is overbought. But the trend indicators unanimously vote for the continuation of the hike to the north.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 110.80, 111.00 and 111.65. The ultimate goal of the bulls is still the same: to reach the cherished height of 112.00. And maybe even overcome it.

As for the events that will take place in Japan in the coming week, we note the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday September 28 and the publication of the Tankan Index of Large Producers of the country for the Q3 on Friday October 01. But will they be able to seriously affect the USD/JPY quotes? In our view, not likely.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Whales prepare for Bear Attack

(https://i.imgur.com/jTcB8B4.jpg)

This week's BTC/USD and ETH/USD charts are very similar to those of the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices. The reason is fluctuating investor sentiment.

The risk of default on obligations of one of the largest construction companies in China, Evergrande, which has accumulated debt in the amount of 2 trillion yuan ($ 309 billion), provoked panic in the financial markets on September 20. Investors began to get rid of risky assets, crashing stock markets. The cryptocurrency market did not escape the sell-off either. If bitcoin was at $52,870 on Monday, it fell to $39,666 for a short time on Tuesday, losing up to 25% of its value.

The panic caused by Evergrande subsided on September 22, followed by a correction, and moderate risk appetite returned to investors after the Fed meeting, and the charts crept further north. However, it was too early to think that the sell-off was over. After rising to $45,150, bitcoin flew down again on Friday, September 24, then fought back and is trading at $43,000 at the time of writing.

The reason for another fall was China again, with the People's Bank of China declaring all cryptocurrency related activities illegal, promising to take tough action against violators. The ban includes the services of foreign crypto exchanges provided in the country, among other things.

In addition to pressure from regulators, whale behavior is another warning sign. On the one hand, the number of coins they own is growing. If in February there were an average of 3236 BTC per whale,  this figure increased to 3722 BTC in September. But the number of whales themselves has decreased by 15% and now stands at 2,125. This is thelowest for the last 15 months. In addition, significant amounts of their coins have flowed from their wallets to exchange accounts. This suggests that the whales are preparing for a possible continuation of the bear market.

Of course, whales are not a single entity. And despite the general desire to make a profit, they can be divided into short-term and long-term investors. The former are prone to speculation and quick fixation of small profits. The second, such as MicroStrategy, prefer to restock on price downturns. And it is thanks to them that the market is kept from a complete collapse.

As for investor sentiment, the data provided by Glassnode in the latest report is interesting. Since late July, while the price of bitcoin has been climbing from $31,000 to $52,000, long-term holders have sold coins they purchased between the $18,000 and $31,000 levels. According to analysts, this suggests that some of the passive investors have moved into the category of active traders selling coins that were purchased at close to current prices.

The total crypto market capitalization has again dropped below the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion and is at $1.84 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved from the neutral zone (48 points) to the Fear zone. It was 27 on Thursday, September 23, at the low of the week, and it grew slightly on Friday September 24 - up to 33 points.

In general, the crypto market is now in a state of uncertainty, some influencers predict unprecedented growth for it, while others, like the president of Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, believe that this “bubble” will burst soon. Of course, this discord applies not only to bitcoin, but also to ethereum.

The ETH price dropped 40%, from $4,020 to $2,650 in just three days last week, from September 20 to September 22. At the same time, JPMorgan bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes that it should be even lower. In his opinion, the fair price for this altcoin is $1,500, based on the metrics of network activity.

The opposite view is taken by cryptocurrency trader and analyst Lark Davis, who said that ETH will reach $10,000 in the coming weeks. He noted that large investors, banks and corporations continue to invest in the ethereum ecosystem. Davis cited its limited supply in the market as another factor in favor of altcoin growth. 87% of Ethereum coins have not moved for more than three months, indicating investor reluctance to sell their savings. In addition, a significant shortage is created by burning of underlying transaction fees as well as by an increase in ethereum 2.0 staking deposits.

And in conclusion, one discovery that could be called a sensation. It turns out that exactly 100 years ago, the famous auto industrialist Henry Ford was already putting forward the idea of replacing gold with a so-called “energy currency.” The issue was raised by him in the New York Tribune as early as 1921. It is striking that Ford's proposed project to launch a new currency is strikingly similar to the description of BTC, which was presented in 2008 by Satoshi Nakamoto.

The front page of the newspaper featured an article detailing the "energy currency" that Ford believed could replace gold and become the backbone of a new era's monetary system. This currency would be fully functioning on the basis of "units of force", and it was proposed to build a huge hydroelectric power station to issue it. Thus, it could become the most stable and secured monetary unit and would prevent the growth of the rich who profit from speculating in gold.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 01, 2021, 02:46:09 PM
NordFX Lottery: Another $20,000 Has Found Its Owners


The second draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on October 1, 2021. Like the first time, it was held online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

Another $20,000 of the total prize pool of $100,000 was raffled off among NordFX clients. The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

(https://i.imgur.com/vrtGShM.jpg)

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The third, final draw will take place immediately after the New Year holidays, on January 03, of already the new year, 2022. A substantial amount of $60,000 will be drawn, which is divided into:
- 30 prizes of $500
- 10 prizes of $1000
- 6 prizes of $2,500 each
- and 1 super prize of $20,000.

Everyone can take part in the lottery and get chances of winning one or even more cash prizes, including the $20,000 super prize. Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 02, 2021, 09:55:04 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 04 - 08, 2021


EUR/USD: Bears' New Win

(https://i.imgur.com/ubRql8J.jpg)

EUR/USD fell to 1.1562 last week, breaking through the key support level of 1.1630, which separated the bullish trend that began in March 2020 from the bearish trend.

September turned out to be the worst month for the US stock market, allowing the dollar to strengthen its position as a safe-haven asset. In addition, the Fed made it clear at its last meeting that it may be ready to begin a soft rollback of the monetary stimulus (QE) program in November. After that, the DXY dollar index posted its best monthly gain this year.

Things could have changed last Thursday. The US ended its fiscal year on September 30, and as of October 01, the country must live under a new budget, which is still not there. If President Biden had not signed legislation before midnight to increase the national debt limit, it would have threatened not only with the suspension of U.S. government, but also with a potential default. However, Biden approved lifting the limit at the very last moment, but only until December 3.

Amid the intrigue with government debt, the market hardly reacted to the contradictory US macro statistics, although the news from the labour market was not the most gratifying. For example, initial applications for unemployment benefits rose from 351,000 to 362,000, against the forecast decline to 335,000. The PMI index of Chicago in September fell from 66.8 to 64.7 points (against the forecast of 65 points). But the US GDP for the Q2 grew by 6.7% and turned out to be better than the forecast by 0.1%.

Governors of Central banks on both sides of the Atlantic remained cautious last week, leaving their escape routes. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking to members of the Senate, said once again that the acceleration of inflation should be replaced by its slowdown. The strong rise in prices, he said, is “driven by supply chain problems” that his department cannot control.

Almost the same statement was made by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde on Tuesday 28 September. She warned market participants against overreacting to the acceleration of inflation in the Eurozone, considering the phenomenon a temporary factor.

Consumer inflation rose 3.4% in September, the highest level in 13 years, according to Eurostat data. As for inflation in Germany, the main locomotive of the EU, it peaked in 29 years at 4.1%. According to preliminary forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone will approach 4% in Q4 and remain above 2% in the first half of 2022. According to analysts, such an increase is most likely caused by a sharp jump in energy prices.

These statistics and the fact that some market participants decided to close short EUR/USD positions at the end of the US fiscal year, recording gains, helped the common European currency a little, and the pair, having fought back from the local bottom, ended the five-day run at 1.1595.

As for the long-term forecast, many experts believe that the euro has no particular prospects. Some even believe that the pair will return to the spring 2020 lows by the end of next year. As for the near future forecast, 50% of analysts are in favor of a further decline in the pair. They are supported by 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 (15% give signals that the pair is oversold). 20% vote for the sideways trend, and the remaining 30% of experts vote for the growth of the pair.

Support levels are 1.1560, 1.1500 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

Of the events to come, note the release of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday October 05. Eurozone retail sales will be available on the following day, October 06. The ADP U.S. private employment report will also be released on that day, and another piece of data from the American labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs US Fed

Last week ended with a bearish win for the GBP/USD pair as well. After starting at 1.3670 and losing 260 points, it bottomed at 1.3410 on Wednesday September 29. This was followed by a fairly powerful rebound and a finish at 1.3545.

Due to the US government debt situation, the market hardly paid attention to the encouraging macro statistics from the UK. But it turned out to be significantly better than forecast. Not only has the GDP drop in the Q1 2021 been revised down from minus 6.1% to 4.8%, but, with a forecast of minus 1.5%, it was 5.5% in Q2.

However, according to a number of experts, the growth of the pound at the end of the week is only indirectly related to these impressive positive statistics. The main reason is that the British currency has been strongly oversold: it has lost about 500 pips to the dollar since mid-September.

At the moment, 70% of experts predict that the pair will go south again to test support in the 1.3400 zone. The remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, it still sides with the bears as well¬: 85% of oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are colored red.

It should be noted that when we move to the forecast before the year end, the picture abruptly changes to the opposite: 70% of analysts already say that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 1.3900- 1.4000 zone. Moreover, a third of these 70% does not rule out that it can even reach the May-June highs of 1.4200-1.4250.

The nearest resistances along the way are 1.3600, 1.3690, 1.3765, 1.3810. Supports are in zones 1.3400, 1.3350 and 1.3185.

According to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First, there is a decrease in the number of hospitalizations in the UK due to COVID-19. UK assets are attractive both in terms of valuation and in terms of economic normalization after the pandemic. Secondly, it is a decrease in political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on Scottish independence. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to analysts at Citibank, are “well placed to confront Fed policy.”

USD/JPY: 112.00 Again

As predicted by most experts (60%), the USD/JPY pair managed to climb to 112.00 after the Fed's QE cut announcement, and even slightly higher, recording a high at 112.07. The forecast went on to say that it was unlikely to gain a foothold above this horizon. This is exactly what happened. Amid a drop in US government bond yields from 1.567% to 1.474% and a weaker dollar, the yen managed to recoup much of the losses at the end of the week and ended the trading session at 111.02.

Recall that unlike other central banks in developed countries, the Bank of Japan remains committed to ultra-soft monetary policy and negative interest rates. Therefore, the yen is still of interest not as a tool for making money, but as a safe haven currency.

At the moment, 50% of experts expect the pair to make another attempt to consolidate above the 112.00 horizon. 25% of analysts are neutral, and another 25% expect the pair to fall.

Support levels are unchanged: 110.45, 110.15, 109.60, 109.10, 108.70 and 108.30. The dream of the bears (it seems to be already impossible) is to retest the April low of 107.45. The nearest resistance levels are 111.00 and 111.65.

It should be noted that the USD/JPY pair has been moving along the 110.00 horizon since last March, making rare attempts to get out of the 108.30-111.00 trading channel. On this basis, the absolute majority of analysts believe that after the failed storm of 112.00, the pair will return to this trading range, where it will continue to move.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Goodbye Bears"

According to statistics from the 99Bitcoins website, digital gold was predicted to die 37 times in 2021. Interestingly, this amount is 2.65 times higher than in 2020, during which BTC “passed away” only 14 times.

99Bitcoins has acted as the official repository for all bitcoin obituaries since 2010, with precise criteria for selecting such publications. The last registered obituary dates from September 21, 2021 and was written by renowned economist Steve Hanke of Johns Hopkins University, who stated that bitcoin is a highly speculative zero-value asset.

Another obituary may soon be registered, this one authored by entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki. The other day, this best-selling author of “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” projected a “giant stock market collapse” due in October. The same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin, he said. The main reason for Kiyosaki's upcoming collapse is the Fed, which has started to sell too many Treasury bonds.

Another unhappy forecast was given by an analyst under the nickname PlanB, the author of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model predicts the value of bitcoin based on the ratio of the asset's total available supply and its annual increase. Calculations by PlanB have recently showed that the bitcoin rate will exceed $100,000 at the end of this year. And now things have changed for the worse: according to the analyst, the price of the flagship coin could drop to $30,000 instead of rising.

Indeed, bitcoin dynamics did not bode well for the crypto market in September, with the BTC/USD pair falling to $39,666. However, the first day of October changed everything¬: bitcoin flew up, rising to $48,250. We have repeatedly noted the correlation between the stock and crypto markets, which is based on the risk appetite of investors. This time, too, the rise in the price of digital assets occurred in parallel with the rise of stock indices such as the S&P500 and Dow Jones.

An additional impetus for bitcoin could have been given by a surge in the volume of cryptocurrency derivatives exchanges. According to analyst Joseph Edwards of London-based firm Enigma Securities, derivatives trading often affects BTC spot prices. Another impetus may have been the decision by Iranian authorities to lift the ban on cryptocurrency mining.

Famous trader hailed the rise of the major cryptocurrency, exclaiming: “Goodbye bears “, and pointed to the move of leading altcoins into the green zone.

Another trader, billionaire Steven A. Cohen, owner of hedge fund SAC Capital Advisors, saw a perfect scenario for bitcoin that could steer it into future rallies. Cohen believes that BTC may still decline, while it is important its price doesn't fall below the 20-week simple moving average (SMA). This will be the key to creating bullish momentum that will push the the coin up to $64,000.

The 20-week SMA, coupled with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), is what Cowen calls the "bull market support band." In his view, it is crucial for bitcoin to stay above this band, as history shows that BTC tends to break through the first time it is retested.

The total crypto market capitalization rose again above the psychologically important threshold of $2.0 trillion on October 01 and stands at $2.06 trillion ($1.84 trillion a week ago). But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 27 points.

And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. So what does it take to make money on cryptocurrencies? It turns out it's all about getting a hamster and giving it a chance to... trade. Over the past three months, the value of the portfolio of Mr. Goxx - a crypto trader hamster on the Twitch platform - has increased by 30%. Over the same time, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway fund assets fell 2%.

The hamster's owner built a special cage for it in June 2021, equipped with optical sensors that are connected to the Arduino Nano controller. Turning the running wheel, Mr. Goxx "selects" a specific cryptocurrency for trading. The program will sell the coin when the rodent runs through the left tunnel and will buy it if it passes through the right one.

The talented hamster managed to outperform not only Berkshire Hathaway, but also the S&P 500 (+6% over the same period) and NASDAQ 100 (+12%), as well as bitcoin itself (+23%).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 03, 2021, 01:44:56 PM
September Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders Profit Neared 550,000 USD

(https://i.imgur.com/Gwi3TfF.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from India, account No.1584XXX, earning almost USD 300,000, or USD 291,944 to be exact. As the analysis shows, the main trading instruments of the leaders are still the pairs with the British pound (GBP/USD, GBP/CHF, GBP/AUD). The winner of the September rating used a number of other pairs as well, such as EUR/NZD, for example.

The second place on the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No. 1397XXX. Their result was almost half that of the leader, but still amounted to an impressive USD 159,241, and was obtained for the same volatile pairs including the British currency: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY.

A trader from Vietnam, account No.1499XXX, who ranked third, used the GBP/JPY pair heavily as well. Their profit at the end of the month amounted to USD 93.610.

The passive investment services:
- CopyTrading has changed its leader. It is the aggressive SHASK VN signal broadcast from Vietnam now. It showed a yield of 435%  on deals with oil (72% of the total) and with gold (21%), in the last three days of September alone. At the same time, the maximum drawdown during the lifetime of the signal was close to 63% of the deposit, making subscribing to it a high-risk event.

As for the leader of July-August, BangBigBosStop1, the first autumn month was not very successful for it. It suffered a loss of 6% in September. There is nothing critical about it, though, as the total profit for the five months is 668%. However, despite the advantages of this signal, the maximum drawdown of 58% also makes it a high-risk group.
As for less risky but also less profitable signals, one might look at KennyFXpro-The Compass, for example. This signal has shown a gain of 135% with a drawdown of around 29% since last November.

- Judging by the title, the same author acts as a manager for NordFX PAMM service as well. Using the nickname KennyFXpro-The Multi 3000 EA, they have increased their capital there by 42% with a drawdown of less than 15% since January 2021.

There are other, even less risky offers in the PAMM service. For example, capital gains under TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 exceeded 26% over six months with a maximum drawdown of about 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, USD 8,710, was credited in September to a partner from India, account No.1258ХXХ;
- next is a partner from the Philippines, account No.1352ХХХ, who received USD 6,384;
- and, finally, their colleague from China (account No.1336XXX) closes the top three, earning USD 5,992 in commission.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 05, 2021, 02:22:37 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/5WN9mQ4.jpg)

- The United States will hold a meeting with representatives from 30 countries to jointly fight cybercrime and the illegal use of cryptocurrencies, US President Joe Biden said. It is not specified which specific states are in question.
The Biden administration has identified tracking cryptocurrency transactions as a possible option to combat ransomware. This happened after several cyberattacks on major US companies.

- ESET has released a list of countries with the highest rate of cryptocurrency related cyber threats. Russia comes first, accounting for 10% of all cases detected. Peru comes second with 6.8% of threats, third is the United States responsible for 5.3% of threats.
At the same time, the total number of cryptocurrency threats detected by ESET has decreased by 23.6%. Experts have noticed that this dynamic is directly linked to cryptocurrency prices: the threats have decreased significantly since the collapse of the quotes last May. 
In addition to mining malware, cryptocurrency investment fraud schemes are gaining popularity, where scammers lure their victims to fake investment sites or impersonate governmental bodies or celebrities.
Victims of such schemes lost at least $80 million from October 2020 to May 2021, according to the Federal Trade Commission of the United States. Meanwhile, according to Chainalysis, the financial pyramid Finiko with Russian roots alone collected $800 million worth of cryptocurrency from Eastern Europeans.

- Well-known Canadian entrepreneur, investor and TV show host Kevin O'Leary said that he now has more cryptocurrency in his portfolio than gold. “Gold takes 5% in my portfolio and cryptocurrency has bypassed it for the first time. But this does not mean that I will sell all the gold, since I do not see the point in this yet. The crypto sector offers not only speculation on the BTC rate now, but there are many other ways to invest as well. And I plan to become an investor in this field.”
Cryptocurrencies currently account for 7% of his portfolio, O'Leary said. At the same time, he said that while gold and bitcoin are often opposed, having both assets in your portfolio is a good idea.

- CRisk aversiono public cryptocurrency wallet users in El Salvador will receive a discount on their car fuel if they pay in bitcoin. The announcement was made by the country's president, Nayib Bukele.
“State-owned CRisk aversiono negotiated with major fuel companies to sell every gallon of gasoline through a crypto wallet for $0.20 cheaper from October 1," he wrote. According to Bukele, the measure “reverses several increases in global fuel prices.”
Users expressed their doubts about the usefulness of such a step in their comments: “These 20 cents will come from all of us, right? The filling stations will not lose, they will be reimbursed from the taxes we paid, including the taxes of those who walk. "

- Former CIA and US National Security Agency official Edward Snowden, who escaped to Russia, said the Chinese government's crackdown on the cryptocurrency industry “has only strengthened bitcoin."
Snowden recalled his own entry from March 2020 about the desire to buy the first cryptocurrency and noted the tenfold growth of the asset since then. “It [bitcoin] has grown about tenfold since then, despite a coordinated global campaign by governments to undermine public understanding and support of cryptocurrencies,” wrote the former special agent.

- Chief strategist at CoinShares Meltem Demirors investment company said in a comment to CNBC that the rate of the first cryptocurrency will soar to $100,000 by the end of 2021. A lot of cash remains untapped, she said, so investors plan to include digital gold in their portfolio.
She also named the buy-on-rumor, sell-on-fact model as one of the catalysts for price changes in the first cryptocurrency. “We are now seeing a lot of hype around the potential approval of the Bitcoin ETF,” explained Demirors. She said “certain movements” on long-term options with six-digit figures will begin at the end of Q4 2021 and early Q1 2022.

- Anthony Pompliano, an avid bitcoin supporter and co-founder of the Morgan Creek Digital venture capital firm, has identified the most serious risks to the coin's growth. “Unlike the sentiments of bitcoin supporters, it will not turn into a currency, which means its market will be quite limited. The maximum for bitcoin is the capitalization of gold, which is essentially a store of value. Bitcoin is not used for day-to-day shopping, and while its upside potential may be slightly higher, it is still limited. "
Pompliano also highlighted several factors that may have undesirable consequences for the main cryptocurrency: “It may be revealed who Satoshi is and if it turns out he is not a very good person, this could have a negative impact on bitcoin itself. In addition, no one uses it for specific purposes, such as making international payments, as it is slow and expensive. There is also an option that governments will decide to tighten measures against bitcoin in the future, for example, they will begin to regulate it, impose heavy taxes or even ban and outlaw it. "
A particular risk, according to Pompliano, is that “bitcoin is still in development. It is still being updated, and although the process includes many filters, security checks and more, there may be a bug in the code that is introduced that will cost a lot.”

- Most of the surveyed cryptocurrency investors from Africa stated that their main motivation is to ensure their family well-being. According to Luno's research, almost half (48%) of respondents are willing to save and invest their salary in cryptocurrencies to pay for their children's education, while 43% are willing to create a starter capital for children and grandchildren, 39% for saving.

- Galaxy Digital crypto bank founder Mike Novogratz told CNN that bitcoin will make fundamental changes to the financial system. He has also urged investors not to pay attention to the volatility of digital gold, but to look at the big picture of the market. “Bubbles and manias are happening around things that change our thinking fundamentally,” Novogratz stressed.
According to the banker, cryptocurrency investors are not just interested in profit, they believe in fundamental changes in the financial system, and the growing interest in bitcoin is associated with the underlying technology.
The head of Galaxy Digital predicted the price of bitcoin to rise to $500,000 in ten years. He believes that 75% of altcoins will disappear from the market over the same period.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 10, 2021, 12:39:32 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for 2022


EUR/USD: First Down, Then Up

(https://i.imgur.com/pAT2f5o.jpg)

The global economy is recovering from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, and this process will continue in 2022. At least. The forecast for global GDP growth of 6% is maintained this year. Growth will continue (unless there are new “surprises”) to roughly 5% next year, according to preliminary forecasts. However, this is an average indicator, and it is the difference in the rates of recovery of the economies of different countries that will affect the rates of their national currencies.

You can see quite different vector behavior of the EUR/USD pair since the beginning of the pandemic. Having started at 1.0635 in March 2020, the pair was already at 1.2350 in early January 2021. The weakening of the dollar has been affected by the intense pumping of the US economy with a huge dollar mass as part of the monetary stimulus (QE) policy implemented by the US Federal Reserve.

With the start of a new 2021 and the arrival of the administration of a new President Joe Biden in the White House, the market has a feeling of greater stability and the imminent winding down of QE. All the more so because macroeconomic indicators, particularly inflation and the labor market recovery, were encouraging. The dollar gained muscle and the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1700 by the end of March.

But dovish sentiment prevailed among the Fed's leadership, the pumping of the economy with money continued, the beginning of the curtailment of the quantitative easing program was postponed indefinitely, and one could not even think about raising the base interest rate. And the pair rose above the important psychological level 1.2000 again, reaching the height of 1.2265.

The competition between the central banks of Europe and the United States certainly did not end there. But while the ECB's rhetoric continued to be dovish, the statements of some Fed leaders already sounded a harsh hawkish note. Investors started to expect that the Fed would begin to roll back QE at the end of this year and will complete it in 2022, in order to start raising the discount rate in early 2023. And the dollar gained ground again, dropping the pair back into the 1.1700 zone. 

At its September meeting, the American regulator did not announce any specific plans regarding the curtailment of the monetary stimulus program. But, if decision-making dynamics remain the same, the Fed will be ahead of the ECB by about six months.

On this basis, many experts predict the dollar will continue to strengthen in late 2021 and in the first half of 2022. In this case, the pair will continue to move south, first to support 1.1500 and then to 1.1200. Some particularly zeal bears predict the pair will even drop to the lows of March 2020.

As for the second half of 2022, according to a number of forecasts, the US economic situation will stabilize, while the “slow” Eurozone, on the contrary, will begin to gain momentum. A reduction in the European QE program and a rise in the euro interest rate could reverse the trend and return the pair to the 1.1700-1.2000 zone.   

It is clear that the dynamics of the pair depends on many factors on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean: political, economic, and in recent years, epidemiological. One other major player is China, which also has a strong influence on the economies of both the Old World and the New World. Therefore, it should be understood that everything said is based on a vision of the situation at the moment, and can be (and should be) subject to adjustment many times over the coming months.
 

Cryptocurrencies: Virtual and Real Gold

While there is a rough understanding and political and economic justification of forecasts with the major currency pair EUR/USD, things look much more complicated as far as cryptocurrency is concerned. Despite the assurances of influencers, this market looks more like the epicenter of mass speculation over the past 1-1.5 years, rather than a reliable investment platform. The year is not over yet, but bitcoin has already managed to soar from $28,550 in January to $64,800 in April, then collapsed to $29,300 in July, and then repeat this rally, only on a slightly smaller scale.

The rate of the BTC/USD pair can be influenced not only by the decisions of US regulators and the Chinese government, but even the mood Elon Musk has woken up in. One of his tweets can make you a millionaire or rip you to the bone. That's why NordFX brokerage gives its clients the opportunity to make money not only on the growth, but also on the fall of cryptocurrency rates, even without having a single token in stock. Why take the risk and buy bitcoin and then sell it? After all, you can just open a sell trade right away.

Nobody knows exactly how much the reference cryptocurrency will cost. Expert opinions vary widely. Some, like Standart Chartered, see $100,000 by the end of this year, and some predict a rise to the same $100,000, but only by the end of 2022. And some, like the Nobel laureate Robert Schiller, are sure that this bubble will burst soon, burying the two trillion USD plus that the investors have invested in this market.

Much will depend on the recovery of the US economy, the pace of the winding down the monetary stimulus (QE) programme, the prospects for the Fed raising interest rates and the dynamics of treasury yields. These are factors that can severely reduce the risk appetite of institutional investors and return them to more familiar financial instruments.

For ethereum, the forecast of Standard Chartered experts is as favorable as for bitcoin and looks very optimistic. A range of $26,000-35,000 per coin was announced in an interview for Reuters. But that's not the limit either, especially if the bitcoin rate approaches $175,000 by the end of 2022.

According to a report by the major investment bank Goldman Sachs published in Forbes, the base cryptocurrency has the chance to lose its leading position, giving way to ethereum. Goldman Sachs believes that the main reason for the popularity of the main altcoin is the ability to create new applications. And also the fact that many financial instruments can be replaced on the basis of its platform. This includes, among other things, loans and other banking operations.

As for real, not digital, gold, a number of experts believe that this precious metal has yet to run out of growth potential in 2022. They do not rule out that the XAU/USD pair could break the August 2020 record and rise to $2,200-2,300 per ounce. However, the price performance of this reserve asset will also depend on investors' willingness or reluctance to take risks, as mentioned above.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 13, 2021, 03:45:48 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/zQ5lP8Z.jpg)

- Financial giant JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has previously repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, promised to fire employees trading digital assets, and called bitcoin holders fools. And now, according to Bloomberg, he smothered the first cryptocurrency to smithereens once again, but admitted that the customers of his holding believe otherwise.
“I personally think bitcoin is worth nothing,” Dimon said at the Institute of International Finance's annual meeting. “But our clients are adults and they don't agree. This is what creates markets. Therefore, if they want to be able to buy BTC, we can provide them with legal and transparent access.”
At the same time, he added that cryptocurrencies will be subject to regulation as concerns grow in Washington regarding stablecoins and the new asset class in general.

- Co-founder of venture capital firm Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, revealed that YouTube removed his channel on the evening of October 11 while on air with popular blogger PlanB. According to Pompliano, this came after discussions about a bullish scenario for bitcoin for the next five years. He later published screenshots of emails from the service, which described the content about the first cryptocurrency as “dangerous and harmful.” Video hosting representatives felt that the channel's creators were allegedly “encouraging illegal activities.”
Pompliano said about two hours later that the YouTube channel had been restored, though "without any explanation from the company."

- 26 Israelis were detained in Tel Aviv on October 5, during a joint operation by the US Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Israeli Police on suspicion of involvement in organized financial fraud in the field of Forex and crypto. And just a week later, all 26 were released, without any special conditions of release.
As previously stated in an official statement by the Israeli police, the detainees provided false brokerage services to clients around the world, thus embezzling $7 million. Users were promised access to forex or cryptocurrency trading, which in reality did not take place, and funds were simply appropriated by the scheme organizers.
And now all the detainees, without exception, were released after a court hearing. Moreover, lawyers for earlier suspects are preparing countersuits against the nation's law enforcement agencies. However, there are reports that two more new crypto-fraud cases involving Israeli citizens are being investigated in the neighboring country of Cyprus.

- Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin criticized El Salvador's decision to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. He stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked. "
“Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit.

- Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller, called bitcoin digital gold and compared his bet on it to buying Amazon stock during the dot-com bubble crash. According to the billionaire, he acquired shares of the tech giant Amazon at an average price of $17 more than 20 years ago. The first cryptocurrency cost him an average of $500 per coin.
“Bitcoin is much less risky at $43,000 than at $300. Now it is recognized, a huge amount of venture capital has gone into it, all the big banks are involved,” Miller said. However, the billionaire advised investors who are not too deeply versed in cryptocurrency to invest no more than 1% of funds in digital assets. Regarding altcoins, Miller noted that the chances of succeeding with more than “10,000 existing tokens and other” are extremely small,” although “Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some other coins will probably exist for a while.”

- Research Institute Capgemini conducted a survey around the world to analyze the current payment situation. In addition, the statistics of the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks were studied.
Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the research institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees. Cryptocurrency credit cards will become more widespread. At the same time, the researchers concluded that the prospects for cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are vague, due to the ambiguous position of governments around the world.

- According to Coinmarketcap data, Apple Corporation currently has the largest capitalization ($2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and bitcoin is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has exceeded $2 trillion, and the capitalization of BTC is already $1 trillion.
What can the above statistics indicate? According to the authors of the publication in Freedman Club Crypto News, only that the flagship cryptocurrency has the potential to not only bypass corporations in terms of capitalization, but also entire sectors of the world economy.

- The Swiss non-profit think tank 2B4CH has proposed making bitcoin one of the reserve assets of the Bank of Switzerland and reflecting this in the country's Constitution.
2B4CH was founded in Geneva in 2017. It conducts research on how cryptocurrencies and blockchain can affect society, and what changes they can bring to the financial sector. And now 2B4CH has announced on Twitter the launch of a “popular initiative” aimed at collecting 100,000 signatures to amend Article 99, paragraph 3, of the Swiss Constitution. In particular, 2B4CH proposes that the Central Bank of that country should be able to store bitcoin as a reserve asset alongside gold. And in case of successful implementation of the initiative, Switzerland, according to the organizers of the plebiscite, will become a good example for other countries.

- An employee of the US Navy and his wife were arrested on suspicion of selling classified data for cryptocurrency. This is reported on the website of the American Ministry of Justice. According to authorities, nuclear engineer Jonathan Toebbe sold information about the design of American nuclear submarines with the help of his wife, allegedly to a representative of a foreign country. The latter turned out to be an undercover FBI agent.
The agent sent Toebbe $10,000 in cryptocurrency in June (according to CoinDesk, Monero). After receiving the payment, the couple hid the secret SD card inside the peanut butter sandwich in a pre-arranged location. The agent then sent them another $20,000.
Toebbe hid another SD card in a gum box in August, receiving $70,000 for the decryption key. And more recently, in October, the engineer made another cache with another map containing data on submarines, after which he and his wife were arrested.

- American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 17, 2021, 03:29:19 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 18 - 22, 2021


EUR/USD: Correction or Trend Change?

Having reached a local low of 1.1523 on Tuesday October 12, EUR/USD ended a five-week downward marathon, turned, and moved up. Since autumn started, the dollar has won back 385 points from the euro. And is the pan-European currency going to regain losses now?

The situation is actually ambiguous. Some experts expected a much more powerful correction further north. But it didn't happen: the pair managed to rise only to 1.1624 and ended the five-day run at 1.1600.

The week's data show that the US economy continues to recover fairly quickly, increasing to almost 100% the chance that the Fed will start tapering monetary stimulus (QE) program next month.

Initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US fell to 293,000 for the first time since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (down 36K against 14,000 forecast). And the number of those already receiving benefits, with the forecast of 78 thousand, decreased by 134 thousand: from 2.72 to 2.59 million. Producer prices also showed an increase, from 8.3% to 8.6% (with a forecast of 8.5%). Year-on-year, therefore, inflation of these prices showed the most powerful uptick in history.

It should be noted that the Producer Price Index serves as a leading indicator for consumer prices. And consequently, inflation can be expected to continue rising, bringing the beginning of the end of QE closer. Especially as retail sales released on Friday 15th October were also in the green zone: ­plus 0.7% versus the forecast minus 0.2%.

 And here the question arises: if everything is so good in the US economy, why hasn't the pair continued its precipitous decline? Grasping at straws, euro-bulls are likely still hoping that the winding down of the fiscal stimulus program will be delayed at least until December. This is supported by the jump in stock indices: the S&P500 rose 3 per cent in the second half of the week (its highest gain in seven months) and the Dow Jones rose 3.4 per cent. This index has not seen such a big break in almost three months.

So what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Continuation of the downtrend after the correction? A stronger euro and an upward trend reversal? Or respite in the side channel?

The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among oscillators, 55% are red, 15% green, and the remaining 30% are neutral grey. There is a lack of unity among trend indicators as well: 65% of them point south and 35% are looking north. The graphical analysis draws the pair's rise to 1.1725, then a fall back and move in the range of 1.1585-1.1725.

As for analysts, 20% favour further decline of the pair, 50% are for its growth, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Support levels are 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1625, 1.1685 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

For next week's events, the European Council meeting on Thursday October 21 and the Markit Manufacturing PMI in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole on October 22 can be noted. The decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate, which will be made public on Wednesday, October 20, may also rock the pair.

GBP/USD: The Victory Is with the Pound So Far

Unlike its European neighbour, the British pound continues to strengthen actively against the dollar: the GBP/USD pair showed a 360-point gain (from 1.3412 to 1.3772) since September 29 and finished at 1.3744. The reason for this dynamic is understandable and lies in the Bank of England's intention to start tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates considerably in the foreseeable future.

As we have already written, according to Citibank experts, the pound is currently supported by the following factors. First is the UK's success in the fight against COVID-19. Secondly, the reduction of political risks associated with the negotiations between the EU and the UK on the Northern Ireland Protocol and the rejection of the referendum on the independence of Scotland. And of course, this is the decision of the Bank of England on a possible increase in the key interest rate to 0.25% in May 2022 and to 0.50% in December. Such prospects for UK monetary policy, according to Citibank analysts, are “well placed to confront Fed policy”, which is what we have seen during October.

However, once the Fed moves to wind down its QE programme, things could change dramatically in favour of the dollar. 60% of experts predict at the moment that the pair will head south again to test the supports at 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. 20% of analysts vote for the continuation of the upward trend (resistance levels and targets of bulls 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3900 and 1.4000). And 20% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, predict a sideways trend.

Among the indicators, a significant advantage is still on the side of the green. 60% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators indicate the continuation of the uptrend on the daily timeframe. 25% of oscillators signal that the pair is overbought, and 15% are in a neutral position.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, attention should be paid to such an important measure of inflation as the UK CPI (due on Wednesday October 20), as well as Markit's UK services PMI to be released on Friday October 22.

USD/JPY: Per Aspera Ad Astra

(https://i.imgur.com/LdhKvlo.jpg)

There is such an expression in Latin, Per aspera ad astra, the authorship is attributed to the ancient Roman philosopher Lucius Anna Seneca. It literally translates as "Through hardships to the stars” and means "Through difficulties to victory." This is exactly what the USD/JPY bulls won.

Most experts expected that they would not calm down until they took the 112.00 height by storm. And now, finally, their months-long efforts have succeeded. And in a great way. After jumping 222 points over the week, the pair reached a height of 114.45 on Friday October 15, and the last chord was slightly lower at 114.21, near the upper limit of the trade range since the beginning of 2017.

Such a fiasco of the Japanese currency is fully consistent with its role as a haven currency and reflects a stable inverse relationship between its rate and the demand for risks. The growing interest of investors in the American and Japanese stock markets (the Japanese stock index Nikkei 225 grew in parallel with the S&P 500) dealt a strong blow to the yen. A pullback in energy prices, which the country mostly imports, supported the market's appetite for Japanese stocks as well.

According to Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, the weak yen supports exporters, but inflates import costs for a number of companies and consumers. At the same time, he said that the stability in the Forex market is important for the government, and it closely monitors the impact of exchange rates on the Japanese economy. But the minister refused to comment directly on the current situation.

However, the yen's fall in two weeks of October looks too fast against the background of the dynamics of the last five months. And this could be the reason for a strong correction of the USD/JPY pair to the south. So 70% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the 111.00-112.00 zone within the next three to five weeks. However, the bulls will have the advantage in the short term. According to 55% of experts, the continued interest of investors in the stock market could lead to further weakening of the Japanese currency.

At the time of writing this review, 75% of oscillators and 100% of trend indicators on D1 indicate further growth in the pair. 25% of oscillators signal that it is overbought and a possible correction. The resistance levels are 114.55 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.80, 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC's New Target Is $68,000

China-related news almost reversed the bitcoin trend south again on Wednesday, October 13. Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has announced, following other exchanges, that it will stop serving Chinese clients and remove the yuan from the list of supported currencies as of December 31.

Prior to Beijing's repressions, residents of this country formed one of the major parts of the crypto community, with the country leading bitcoin mining. Back in 2020, its share was 50-60% of the global hash rate. The situation has changed dramatically since then and, according to Cambridge University, the top three in crypto mining are now the United States (35.4%), Kazakhstan (18.1%) and Russia (11.2%).

If you look at the map, you can see that the last two of these countries have a land border with China, which made it possible to move numerous mining equipment there. As a result, illegal miners in some Russian border regions have increased annual electricity consumption by 160%.

Time will tell whether China will win or lose from the imposed bans. This applies to other countries as well, some of which seek to tighten legislation in this area as much as possible, while others are very loyal to digital assets. For example, Director of US National Intelligence John Ratcliffe sent a letter to the SEC chairman last year asking him not to restrict the activities of US miners. There is no need to talk about El Salvador, which recognized bitcoin as the official currency.

Interestingly, this decision was heavily criticized by ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin. “Shame on everyone (okay, I'll name the main culprits: shame on bitcoin maximalists) who praise him [El Salvador President Nayib Bukele] without any criticism,” Buterin wrote on Reddit. And he stressed that the process of forcibly integrating digital assets into the financial system “runs counter to the ideals of freedom that should be appreciated by members of the cryptocurrency community. In addition, the tactic of simultaneously distributing BTC to millions of El Salvadorians with little or no prior training is reckless and fraught with the risk of large numbers of innocent people being hacked or tricked."

The Capgemini Research Institute is also concerned with the question of how widely cryptocurrencies have entered the life of ordinary people. In addition to surveys conducted in many countries, it examined statistics from the Bank for International Settlements, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and other central banks.

Capgemini noted that less than 10% of consumers currently use cryptocurrency for payments. However, the institute predicts that nearly 45% of customers will use this new payment method in one to two years. This trend will be supported by the growing demand for international payments and the reluctance to pay high transaction fees.

If the world's leading powers don't start chasing bitcoin after China, the flagship cryptocurrency has a lot of chances to to bypass leading corporations and even entire sectors of the world economy in terms of capitalization.

According to Coinmarketcap, the largest capitalization currently belongs to Apple ($ 2.34 trillion), followed by Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and BTC is in fifth place. If you look at the statistics, the total capitalization of the stock market is currently about $100 trillion, the capitalization of the gold market is around $12 trillion, the total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market at the time of writing the review is $2.42 trillion, and the capitalization of BTChas already reached $1.12 trillion (dominance index 46.24%).

Bitcoin continued to delight investors over the past week. Over the seven days, the BTC/USD pair rose 16% to reach a local high of $62,880. Projections supported by many experts suggest that it will soon test the historic high of $64,810 on April 14. If successful, taking into account the statistical volatility, the pair will reach the $68,000, followed by a serious correction associated with massive profit taking.

However, despite a possible pullback, the mid-term outlook for this pair remains positive. The next major resistance level is located in the $80,000-81,000 area. American Crypto Exchange Kraken experts believe that the price of the flagship asset could reach $100,000 by the end of 2021. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of previous years, a calculation was made, according to which, the price of bitcoin tends to grow during the fourth quarter of any year. During this period, "the average and median returns reached +119% and +58%, respectively." If the average return of the previous 2020 year recurs, BTC could end the year close to $100,000. More precisely, around $96,000. However, if we see not the average, but the median profitability, Kraken experts write, then the price of bitcoin will rise to about $70,000.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from the Fear Zone to the Greed Zone in the two weeks of October to reach 71 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 20, 2021, 03:00:05 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Wfssejz.jpg)

- Scammers launched a series of fake broadcasts on YouTube on the evening of October 18, a few hours before the official start of the Apple Unleashed press conference, in which they invited users to take part in the distribution of cryptocurrencies. Viewers were encouraged to send 0.1 BTC to 5 BTC or 3 ETH to 500 ETH to the specified wallet and allegedly get back the double amount of the cryptocurrencies. The fake stream was carried out on a channel that completely copied the Apple's account, which resulted in one of the fake presentations gathering about 30,000 participants.
Scammers often use YouTube to promote fake cryptocurrency giveaways. As a reminder, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak already joined a class action against YouTube and Google in July 2020 over malicious actions, but the court found that the platform did not carry liability for materials posted by third parties.

- The founder of the Brazilian crypto exchange Foxbit, Joao Canhada, acquired 1 BTC for his daughter on the day of her birth, Cointelegraph tells the family story. “I bought bitcoin for her not just as a gift, but as a way to invest in the new economy. At that time, it was estimated at 5,000 Brazilian reais (about $915),” admits the perspicacious father. After just four years, bitcoin has climbed to $63,000 and the investment has generated a 6,800% return. Now we can only guess what the profit will be when the girl comes of age.

- American software architect and entrepreneur Jack Dorsey revealed that payment giant Square is considering creating a device to mine the first open-source cryptocurrency.
In Dorsey's view, mining should be easier and more accessible to everyone in order to improve the resilience of the bitcoin network. The equipment supply is currently concentrated in just a few companies. For this reason, the creator of Square and Twitter is thinking about removing barriers for miners.

- The city of North Vancouver in the Canadian province of British Columbia expects to provide heat to the city's residential and industrial buildings by mining bitcoin from 2022.
Municipal energy company Lonsdale Energy Corporation has entered into an agreement with mining firm MintGreen to provide a new carbon-free source of energy for the district heating system instead of burning natural gas. According to the press release, the immersion-cooled cryptocurrency mining rigs convert over 95% of the electricity consumed into heat, which can be used for heating and industrial processes.
“Cryptocurrency miners operate at full capacity 365 days a year, creating a unique opportunity to provide a reliable and sustainable base load for the North Vancouver district heating system,” the statement said. Per 1 MW, the use of mining will prevent up to 20,000 tons of greenhouse gases from entering the atmosphere.

- Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has repeatedly criticized cryptocurrencies, calling the digital asset market an economic bubble. And now he is exploring the possibility of opening a short position in cryptocurrency. This short-run specialist asked his Twitter followers how to do this.
“Okay, I haven't done this before, how can you short on cryptocurrency? Do you need to secure a loan? Is there a short rebate? Can there be a margin call? “, Michael Berry wondered.

- A favorable macroeconomic environment, good network performance and the approval of bitcoin ETFs in the US will help BTC hit new all-time highs this quarter, according to a Finder poll of 50 fintech industry experts.
The survey was attended by representatives of Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors from universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. According to them, the BTC exchange rate will peak at slightly above $80,000 over the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will finish the year around $71,400.
The levels indicated by these experts were well below the forecasts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg analysts, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

- The pace of institutional participation in BTC has accelerated over the past 5 weeks, which is an important sign of the bull market return. According to popular crypto analyst Willy Woo, the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle.
This analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

- Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers like Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.
Yusko repeated his prediction In another interview with CNBC. He also praised the main crypto asset as superior to gold due to its fixed supply of 21 million coins. “This is a classic supply and demand option. One of the nice things about bitcoin as an asset is that it has a limited supply. We know how many bitcoins will be mined every day for the next 140 years."
By the time BTC reaches the $250,000 mark, Jusko says, its market cap will be equal to that of gold.

- One of the first bitcoin investors, billionaire and CEO of venture capital firm Social Capital, Chamat Palihapitiya, believes that the United States will no longer be able to ban bitcoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency. In his view, the cryptocurrency market has become too big for US authorities to stifle the emerging industry:
“You can't just take the $2 trillion capitalization off the face of the earth,” Palihapitiya wrote. “Bitcoin is not going anywhere and is currently too institutionalized. There are already quite a few organized pools of capital within this ecosystem.
I can give an example of a simple high-frequency trading by Jump Trading. They posted several photos of a group of hired newbies and a tutorial on programming in Solana. It was an example of bringing people on their part. Therefore, when there are people with big finance and they are ready to invest money in it, the capitalization of the crypto market will grow to $6 trillion, and then to $10 trillion. This is why Powell and Gensler had to voice that they are not going to ban cryptocurrencies. In fact, they know it is impossible. "
As a reminder, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in early October that he had no plans to ban cryptocurrencies. A few days later, SEC chief Gary Gensler practically repeated those words. And it was last Thursday that Senator Cynthia Lammis spoke in the Senate, saying that digital currencies could help countries like the United States cope with an impending crisis when the state runs out of cash. “Thank God for bitcoin, another non-fiat currency that surpasses the irresponsibility of governments, including our own,” exclaimed Ms Senator from a high rostrum.

- Over 99% of bitcoins in circulation bring profit to their holders. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. According to the published chart, only 0.98% of the coins (about 186.000 BTC) were bought at a price above $59.000. At the same time, open interest in bitcoin options has risen sharply to the levels of last May-April. The increase from September was +107% (from $6.3 billion to $12.2 billion). Glassnode experts also revealed that nearly $325 million is put on bitcoin's growth to $200,000 by the end of the year.
As for the leading altcoin, according to Glassnode, the number of Ethereum investors holding at least 1 ETH in their crypto wallets has renewed its all-time high, reaching 1.34 million addresses. There were just over 1 million of them at the beginning of the year. In total, the Ethereum network has processed transactions worth more than $6.2 trillion over the past 12 months, 369% more than in 2020.

- The mysterious creator of the bitcoin network, Satoshi Nakamoto, was included In mid-April in the list of the 20 richest people on the planet, but his fortune decreased dramatically after the fall in the price of BTC. However, Nakamoto regained the lost ground this week after the price of the first cryptocurrency topped $60,000.
It is generally believed among crypto experts that Nakamoto has about 1 million bitcoins, some call a smaller figure, some larger. The Whale Alert report calls the figure of 1.125 million BTC. Thus, as of october 17, 2021, Nakamoto owns approximately $60.7 billion in Bitcoin (BTC), $625 million in Bitcoin cash (BCH), $169 million in Bitcoinsv (BSV), and $191 million in Ecash (formerly known as BCHA or Bitcoin ABC). In total, this amounts to $60.9 billion.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 24, 2021, 12:02:53 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 25 - 29, 2021


EUR/USD: In a State of Uncertainty

When giving their forecast a week ago, 20% of analysts were in favour of a decline in EUR/USD, 50% voted for it to rise, and 30% were neutral. As a result, 80% of those who pointed north and east were right. After starting at 1.1600, the pair first rose to 1.1668, then fell to 1.1616, and then moved sideways in this channel. After Friday's speech by the Fed Governor, the pair dropped to the bottom of this trading range but finished almost in its middle at 1.1643.

According to Reuters, Jerome Powell said it was time to start reducing asset purchases but added that it was not yet time to raise rates. In his view, high inflation is likely to continue into next year, but the central bank expects it to return to the 2% target.

The figures coming in the week from the US labour market could be considered positive. This was due to a larger revision of the previous data on repeated claims for unemployment benefits, from 2.593K to 2.603K. Thus, the current number of 2.481K showed a decrease of 122K instead of the forecast 118K.

Such "tricky" mathematics improved data on primary benefit claims as well. As a result of revising previous results, they decreased by 6K instead of increasing by 2K.

However, all this positive has not helped the dollar much, as US Treasury yields remain around 2.15%, while the probability of its growth towards 3.0% remains.

Weaker Markit PMI in German and Eurozone manufacturing sectors could push the EUR/USD pair down on Friday 22 October. But they turned out to be multi-colored. The European index turned into the red, dropping from 56.2 to 54.3 against a forecast of 55.2. But the index of the main locomotive of the European housekeeper, Germany, on the contrary, is green at 58.2 against the forecast 56.5.

The fact that the US labour market continues to improve should, in the end, provide more support to the dollar. Fed Governor Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the monetary stimulus (QE) program is aimed at stabilizing the labor market, among other things. This task, although not fully accomplished, is very close to the goal. Consequently, there is nothing preventing the Fed from starting to reduce monetary stimulus in the near future.

So, what to expect from EUR/USD in the near future? Whereas 55% of the oscillators on D1 were painted red, 15% green and 30% neutral grey a week ago, the picture has changed now. 50% of the indicators are pointing up, 20% have taken a neutral position, 15% are looking down, and the remaining 15% are signaling that the pair is overbought. As for trend indicators, their readings have also been affected by the sideways movement of recent days, resulting in a draw of 50% by 50%.

The overwhelming majority of analysts expect the dollar to strengthen by the end of the year. But their opinions are almost equally divided about the forecast for the coming week. 45% of experts vote for the bullish scenario, as much as bearish, and 10% have taken a neutral stance.

Support levels are 1.1615, 1.1585, 1.1560, 1.1520, 1.1485 and 1.1450. Resistance levels are 1.1670 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for next week's events, the Eurozone Bank Lending Report which will be published on Tuesday 26 October should be noted. Capital and durable goods orders are due from the US on Wednesday October 27. We are expecting quite a lot of macro statistics on Thursday and Friday, including consumer markets and GDP data from the Eurozone, Germany and the United States. In addition, the European Central Bank will meet on October 28. The interest rate is likely to remain unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the subsequent press conference and commentary by the ECB management on monetary policy is of much greater interest.

GBP/USD: Wherever the Euro Goes, the Pound Goes

Last week's GBP/USD chart is very similar to the EUR/USD chart: sideways movement with some advantage to bulls and finish just above the start level, at 1.3758. This stems from the absence of many serious drivers from the other side of the Atlantic, as well as from the statistics from the UK itself.

UK consumer price growth slowed from 3.2 per cent to 3.1 per cent, which is a good signal for investors fearing global inflation. However, the market has hardly reacted to these figures, keeping a close eye on gas prices, as the energy crisis is now a major threat not only for the United Europe but also for the UK that separated from it. Inflation is certainly very important, but the country is repeating the path already taken by the Eurozone and the United States, where it was followed by strong growth following a slight decline.

The Markit Business Activity Index (PMI) in the British services sector published on Friday, October 22, rose from 55.4 to 58.0 instead of the expected decline. This didn't help the pound. The dollar, with the help of Jerome Powell, who made a speech shortly before the markets closed, strengthened not only against the euro, but also against the British currency.

Unlike its European counterpart, the pound had been growing since September 29. And this could not but affect the readings of the indicators on D1, among which the advantage is still on the side of the green. Among the oscillators, these are 55%, 25% are grey and 20% signal that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, 60% are looking north, 40% have already turned south.

As far as experts are concerned, there is no discernible advantage: 35% vote for the pair's growth, 25% for its decline, and 40% for movement in the side channel.

The supports are located at levels 1.3740, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and bull targets are 1.3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000

USD/JPY: Return to 2017

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair returned to the values of a week ago.

While the dollar has strengthened against the euro and the British pound since Fed Governor Jerome Powell's speech on October 22, it has weakened a bit against the yen as a safe haven currency. As a result, the final chord sounded at around 113.42.

As we know, the pair's performance is strongly influenced by the yield of US government bonds, which hovers around 2.15% so far. However, if it rises, USD/JPY will see a new rise in volatility.

At this stage, 65% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 35% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.45, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Support levels are 113.25, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, one could note the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which will be held on the same day as the meeting of the ECB, on Thursday October 28. However, it is highly likely to bring no surprises, and the interest rate will remain negative at minus 0.1% as before.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: $66,925: Bitcoin's New High

(https://i.imgur.com/iyQLKrp.jpg)

Bitcoin hit $64,850 on April 14, followed by a 55% pullback to $29,230. And now what crypto investors have been waiting for has finally happened. After months of anxiety and anticipation, the BTC/USD pair not only regained what it had lost, but also upgraded its historic high, peaking at $66,925 on October 20. Ethereum also reached its all-time high: the ETH/USD pair was noted at a height of $4,363.

Analysts say the reasons for the current rise are two. The first is the launch of Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded investment funds). First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a Bitcoin futures ETF from ProShares, followed by approval of VanEck's application to launch a similar ETF.

The second and main reason for the bullish trend was investors' concerns about inflation. Experts at JPMorgan Chase, the largest banking conglomerate, pointed out that real gold, unlike digital gold, has hardly responded to inflationary concerns. This suggests bitcoin's renewed role as the best capital protection tool for investors and supports the bullish outlook for BTC until the end of the year.

Many other analysts agree with JPMorgan Chase, who are optimistic about the performance of the main cryptocurrency until the end of December. But at the same time, they urge investors to be extremely cautious in early 2020 as the big four-year BTC cycle is about to end. So Scion Capital hedge fund founder Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has already thought about opening a short bitcoin position.

Finder conducted a survey of 50 fintech industry experts with representatives from Cypherpunk Holdings, Bitcoin Reserve, Kraken, Arcane and CryptoQuant, as well as 7 professors, representing universities in Asia, Europe and Australia. In their opinion, the BTC rate will peak at a level slightly above $80,000 within the next two months, and the flagship cryptocurrency will end the year around $71,400.

The levels indicated by these experts turned out to be significantly lower than the forecasts of analysts of Standard Chartered and Bloomberg, who believe bitcoin could exceed $100,000 this year.

Popular crypto analyst Willy Woo believes that the next phase of the bitcoin market will be more volatile than previous bullish periods, implying a longer time frame for the current cycle. recall that this analyst wrote in a series of Twitter posts a year ago that, according to his model, $200,000 per bitcoin by the end of 2021 is a conservative forecast. However, he did not exclude the likelihood that BTC will soar up to $300,000.

Morgan Creek Capital Management CEO Mark Jusko calls the numbers similar to Willie Woo's predictions. He suggests that the price of the oldest cryptocurrency could soar to the level of $250,000, only to happen not in 2021, but in the next 5 years. In doing so, he acknowledged that the path to such a peak may not be easy.

In the meantime, there is a rollback in the crypto market. The most cautious investors close long positions. Bitcoins are also sold by those who bought them at the spring highs. They have earned a little and do not want to risk again.  A glitch in the algorithm on the Binance.US exchange added fears as well, when the price immediately collapsed by 87%. However, the performance of other exchanges and brokers was not affected by this, and the BTC/USD pair was trading at $61,000 at the time of writing. The total crypto market capitalization is $2.6 trillion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index is 45.94%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone at 75 points. However, this does not mean that the market is strongly overbought, and, in the opinion of the index developers, it can still be dangerous to open short positions in this situation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 27, 2021, 04:45:20 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/iczB6t8.jpg)

- Investors committed a record $1.47 billion to crypto funds during the week of October 16-22, and $8 billion since the beginning of the year. Such data is contained in the CoinShares report. The previous record of $670 million was set in February. Amid the digital gold's historical high above $67,000, the total amount of funds in cryptocurrency based financial products reached $79.2 billion during the week. Analysts attributed this dynamic to the successful launch in the US of two Bitcoin ETFs from ProShares and Valkyrie Investments.
As a result, inflows to bitcoin-based funds totaled $1.45 billion, Solana, Cardano, Binance Coin totaled $8.1 million, $5.3 million and $1.8 million, respectively. At the same time, the outflow of funds from ethereum products has continued for the third week, totaling $1.4 million.

- US Senator Rand Paul called fiat money "unreliable" and expressed optimism about the prospects for cryptocurrencies in the global financial system. “Public money is so unreliable! I began to wonder if cryptocurrency could serve as the world's money as more people lose confidence in the government,” he said.
Reporters note that this kind of message made Rand Paul "a rock star in the eyes of Newbie trader people" during the 2016 presidential campaign. It was notable for the fact that the Kentucky senator accepted bitcoin donates.

- Several email providers were subjected to DDoS attacks, for the termination of which unknown persons demanded a ransom in bitcoins. Representatives of the Posteo email service confirmed the information. “But we will not pay the specified amount,” Posteo said in a statement. “Companies should not allow criminals to blackmail them under any circumstances. Otherwise, they will be even more attractive to them.”
The RunBox service also announced the attack later. And they also clarified that "they have never paid the criminals" and do not plan to start." In addition to email providers, UK VoIP telephony provider Voipfone and game server provider Sparked were also targeted by DDoS attacks.

- Payment giant Mastercard will soon announce support for cryptocurrencies in its network. CNBC reports. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets. According to Mastercard Executive Vice President of Digital Partnerships Sherry Haymond, the initiative will allow banks to compete with cryptocurrency exchanges.

- Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin should bounce off the $54,000-58,000 zone where strong support is located, and renew its all-time high, exceeding $80,000, in November.
Another well-known analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic rise in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this pattern, “we'll be out $98,000 as early as November and $135,000 in December,” PlanB said. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year.” At the same time, the analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

- 150 people have been arrested worldwide as a result of a global special operation against illegal trading on the DarkMarket Internet platform. Law enforcement agencies from nine countries participated in Operation Dark HunTOR. It is one of the most large-scale investigations in Europol's history, assisted by U.S. authorities. Some $31 million in cash and bitcoins, 234 kilograms of drugs and 45 weapons were seized. Moreover, 67 people have been arrested in the US, 47 in Germany, 24 in the UK. Many of the detainees, Europol said, were targets of particular importance.
Europol says the investigation was a follow-up to a raid by German police against the DarkMarket platform, which was operated by an Australian citizen. Moreover, as part of the same operation, several other illegal trading platforms have been shut down in Italy, four administrators have been arrested and €3.6 million in cryptocurrency seized.

- The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins. Bloomberg reports that the pilot project includes 200 Coinstar ATMs at Walmart stores in the United States. Cryptocurrency will be available in more than 8,000 of these bitcoin ATMs in future. The commission will be 4% when buying BTC and 7% when cashing out.

- Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet.
Special smart contracts will enable the client to transfer the disposal of their digital assets to the beneficiary in the event of their death.
The service is expected to have at least 500,000 users in the coming year.

- Popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis believes that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.
Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.
In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

- Former Facebook manager Frances Hogan, who made accusations against this corporation, said that investing in cryptocurrencies allows her not to worry about her financial situation. 'As for the foreseeable future, I'm fine. I bought cryptocurrencies at the right time,” she told The New York Times, noting that she moved to Puerto Rico not only to improve her own health, but also to join her “crypto friends”.
Recall that Hogan turned over tens of thousands of internal Facebook documents to journalists and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among other things, she accused the company of inciting hatred and ignoring teen safety issues. “I have come across a lot of social networks, but Facebook was doing much worse than the rest,” she said. - On Facebook, I have seen conflicts of interest between the public and the corporation over and over again. And Facebook has repeatedly chosen its interests, including to increase earnings."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 31, 2021, 12:32:02 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 01-05, 2021


EUR/USD: After ECB Meeting, Ahead of Fed Meeting

Last time the EUR/USD review was titled “In a state of uncertainty”, as confirmed by the previous week. Starting at 1.1643, the pair dipped to 1.1581, then rose to 1.1691, and ended the session with a new drop, this time to the 1.1560 level.

The main event last week was the European Central Bank meeting. As expected, the interest rate remained unchanged at 0%. Therefore, the commentary of the ECB management on monetary policy was of much greater interest. After the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England outlined the timing of the start of curtailing their monetary stimulus (QE) programs, investors wanted to hear similar statements from the ECB. But… they didn’t hear them: the regulator’s press release practically repeated the previous one of September.

According to Bloomberg insider information, there is currently a split among ECB Governing Council members. First and foremost, this concerns estimating the extent of the upcoming inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde's assurances that the recent rise in inflation to 3.4% is temporary does not suit all. Even more so, they look doubtful against Germany's 28-year inflation peak (4.6%) and Spain's 37-year peak (5.5%). The statement of the bank's management that the analysis does not confirm the need to raise the interest rate in 2022 also looks dubious.

All of the above has led investors to feel that the withdrawal of monetary stimulus in the Eurozone will not begin until late 2022 and early 2023. Against this backdrop, the European currency should have to weaken sharply. But if we look at the chart, we will see a sharp increase of the EUR/USD pair: the EUR/USD pair rose 110 points on October 28. Surprising but true!

The main reason lies in the macro statistics from the US, which came out at the same time as the ECB chief's press conference began. According to preliminary estimates, US GDP in Q3 will be 2.0%, well below not only the previous 6.7% but also the 2.7% forecast. The growth rate of the US economy fell from 12.2% to 4.9%. The figures tempered investor optimism and caused the dollar to weaken, with the USD index (DXY) falling from 93.86 to 93.33, and the Dow Jones and S&P500 stock indices almost returning to their historic highs. Falling gas and coal prices also played against the dollar, reducing the likelihood of an energy collapse in Europe.

At the end of the week, on Friday October 29, the dollar was able not only to win back losses, but also pushed the EUR/USD pair down to three-week lows. Investor positioning was key to this after the release of the US Fed's report on economic conditions, known as the Beige Book, ahead of the regulator's meeting next week. “With the Fed set to move to reduce asset purchases and flexibility, which is likely to be a key feature of future policy, the risk/return ratio becomes more positive for the dollar,” TD Securities analysts explained.

The dollar was also supported by a monthly gain on risk assets, a rise in bond yields to 1.672% (the highest since May) and good macro statistics from the US: the rise in the underlying PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure) remained at 3.6% in September, in line with August. However, the European statistics caused another anxiety attack at investors, showing an acceleration in inflation and a sharp slowdown in GDP growth.

Despite the fluctuations of EUR/USD over the past few weeks, 100% of the trend indicators on D1 are looking south. But among oscillators, these fluctuations caused a certain amount of confusion: only 40% of them point south, 30% look north and 30% east. There is no unity among experts either. 30% vote for the growth of the pair, 55% for its fall, and 15% for lateral movement. Support levels are 1.1520, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1580, 1.1625, 1.1670, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for important events and the release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be a lot of both in the coming week. German retail sales volumes and the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector will be released on Monday November 01. The value of ISM in the service sector, as well as the ADP report on the level of employment in the US, will become public on Wednesday November 03. We will have such a key event as the Fed meeting on the same day, including the interest rate decision, as well as comments from its management on the US Central bank monetary policy. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, is scheduled to speak on Wednesday and Thursday.

As usual, the first Friday of the month, November 05, will see data from the US labour market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agriculture sector. Eurozone retail sales statistics will be released the same day.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), which reflects the retail price performance of goods and services that make up the consumer basket of United Kingdom residents, and is a key inflation indicator, was +0.3% in September (vs. +0.4% and +0.7% in August). On a year-on-year basis, the UK CPI grew by +3.1% (vs. +3.2% forecast and +3.2% in August). Although indicators showed inflation slowing in September, analysts expect it to accelerate sharply in October due to high energy prices, utility tariffs and a partial increase in VAT.

The coming week is not only the week of the Fed meeting, but also of the Bank of England, which will take place on Thursday November 04. According to a number of experts, the slowdown in inflation in September is unlikely to force the UK regulator to stop raising its key interest rate in the coming months (now at 0.1%).

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is highly dangerous for the British economy, which is still being pressured by the effects of Brexit. According to the Bank of England experts, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to around 5% by April 2022 and fall to the 2% target as late as by the end of 2022. This is a very fast pace, and the head of the central bank, Andrew Bailey, has recently said that at such rates, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates faster than originally planned.

Many investors now believe that the interest rate on the pound could reach 0.45% by the end of 2021 and 0.95% by June 2022, which is supposed to lead to a stronger pound. However, in the current substandard situation, things are not so simple, and the curtailment of monetary stimulus could lead to a deterioration in the British economy, deepening crisis and a drop in living standards of the UK residents. Retail sales volumes (excluding fuel), as determined by the Office for National Statistics, have shown a year-on-year decline of -0.9% to -2.5% for three consecutive months, suggesting that people have started saving.

The last week and a half shows that the bullish momentum on the GBP/USD pair that started on September 30 has dried up and, thanks to the same factors listed for EUR/USD, the pound ended the trading session at 1.3685 a month later.

Intrigue as to how the market will react to plans by the US Fed and Bank of England to wind down QE remains for now. But it's safe to say that coming Wednesday and Thursday, when these regulators meet, promise to be very interesting, high volatility is guaranteed. At the same time, 40% of experts are Currency carry trade on the bears winning, 30% along with the graphical analysis on D1 support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As many as 50% of the oscillators are neutral grey. The readings of the rest oscillators are divided equally: 25% for the red and 25% for the green. As for trend indicators on D1, reds win with a clear advantage, they are 80%. Support levels are 1.3765, 1.3675, 1.3600, 1.3575, 1.3525 and 1.3400. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3725, 3770, 1.3810, 1.3835, 1.3900 and 1.4000.

USD/JPY: The Yen Has Its Own Path

(https://i.imgur.com/INT3gTc.jpg)

Charts from the past two and a half weeks show that the upward momentum has dried up for USD/JPY as well. Only if, in the case of GBP/USD, the dollar has been weakening against the pound since the end of September, on the contrary, it has been strengthening against the yen.

The Japanese currency is a safe haven currency for investors. And its recent weakening fits logically into a stable inverse relationship between the yen rate and the growing risk appetite of the market. It should also be added that another trigger for the yen's weakening was the shift in Japan's trade balance towards imports, due to a spike in energy and metal prices. And, of course, one cannot ignore such an important factor influencing the USD/JPY quotes as the yield of US Treasury bonds. However, it is also directly related to the market's risk-aversion.

USD/JPY upgraded its four-year high on October 20 to reach 114.70 high, the very point where it was in November 2017. After that, the enthusiasm of the bulls subsided, and the pair went down, ending last week at 113.95.

At this stage, 70% of analysts expect the pair to first return to the 113.00 horizon, and then drop to the 111.00-112.00 zone by the end of November. The remaining 30% of experts adhere to the opposite point of view, expecting the next update of multi-year highs and the rise of the pair to the range 115.00-116.00.

The resistance levels are 114.35, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support levels are 113.85, 113.40 and 113.25, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for the events of the coming week, the release of the report of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Tuesday November 02 could be noted. However, it is likely the market will react to it fairly calmly. Especially since this event will take place just one day before the US Fed meeting, which will be the focus of all investors and speculators.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

The historical record of $66,925 set by bitcoin on October 20 has not yet been broken. The imminent correction that followed taking that height brought forward a fierce bull and bear fight. The forces proved to be about equal. As a result, after swaying in the $57,590—63,645 range, the pair returned on Friday October 29 to roughly where it had been seven days earlier, to the $62,000 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is also unchanged at $2.6 trillion, but bitcoin's share has decreased somewhat: its dominance index has dropped from 45.94% to 44.15%. This was due to capital flows into altcoins, primarily ethereum, which rose from 18.72% to 19.61% over the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 70 points (75 weeks ago).

Most analysts believe that the upward trend of the BTC/USD pair will continue. This is supported by statistics. Coin outflows from the exchanges have resumed, according to Glassnode. Bitcoin network hash rate has almost recovered after China's mining ban, which caused it to drop by 50%. At the same time, bitcoin supply is quite low: miners and investors are holding their reserves in the expectation of further price growth.

The macroeconomic background is also favourable. The New York Stock Exchange continues to list bitcoin-related ETFs. True, there is information that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is likely to reject Valkyrie's application to launch a leveraged ETF. Other of the 40 filings currently under consideration by the SEC, apart from applications to launch ETFs on bitcoin futures, will not receive the green light either. But those that will be approved are quite enough to ensure a solid inflow of funds into this sector from investors saving their capital from inflation.

The good news for BTC is that payments giant Mastercard will soon announce cryptocurrency support on its network. This includes bitcoin wallets, credit and debit cards, and loyalty programs where points can be converted into digital assets.

The American company Walmart Inc., which operates the world's largest wholesale and retail chain, has also turned to the main cryptocurrency and launched a pilot program to sell bitcoins in its stores.

Crypto trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that bitcoin will not fall below the $54,000 zone where the strong support is located and, pushed back from it, will update its historic high in November, exceeding $80,000.

Another prominent analyst, PlanB, also expects a parabolic increase in the price of bitcoin. As a reminder, PlanB is the creator of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which predicts the price of the flagship cryptocurrency, and which allowed it to accurately predict BTC prices in August and September. And if bitcoin continues to follow this model, it will reach $98,000 in November and $135,000 in December. “So, it's going to be a really good Christmas this year,” declared PlanB.  At the same time, the expert believes that the flagship cryptocurrency is unlikely to be able to avoid another major correction that historically follows each major bull cycle.

Another popular cryptanalyst and trader Lark Davis expects that “the next six months are likely to be mega-crazy for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies! Many of you will get the chance to completely change your financial destiny,” he tweeted.

Davis does not advise investors to get carried away with speculative altcoins and NFTs in the current situation, but to bet on time-tested coins. “Let the winners win, double and even triple your positions and cut the losers. Do it mercilessly, there is no point in keeping dubious assets,” writes Lark Davis.

In his view, BTC could increase investor savings by 20 times over the next 10 years, but individual altcoins could generate comparable returns much sooner. “Altcoins are for making money, BTC is for storage,” the expert explains.

The leading altcoin seemed to have heard Lark Davis's words. While bitcoin was hovering around $60,000-61,000, ethereum renewed its all-time high, peaking at $4,447 on October 29. The previous record of $4,360 was set back in May.

The ETH/USD pair is bursting up for the fifth week in a row, having added more than 65% since September 21. The reason for this growth is the coin-burning process that takes ETH tokens out of circulation. Another factor that pushed this altcoin up was the news of the successful start of the Ethereum 2.0 Altair update for the Beacon Chain, which brought the moment of the full launch of ETH 2.0 even closer.

And another piece of news that will be of interest for those who think not only about their future, but also the future of their children and loved ones. Russian insurance company Renaissance Life and InDeFi SmartBank have started jointly developing smart contracts to help inherit digital assets. With the growth of the cryptocurrency market, the problem of inheriting such property has become quite acute. Since cryptocurrencies are decentralized, in the event of the death of the owner, the heirs simply cannot dispose of the property of the deceased without access to the cryptocurrency wallet. Smart contracts under development should solve this problem by enabling the client to transfer the disposal of digital assets to their designated heir in the event of their death.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 03, 2021, 10:47:32 AM
October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer

(https://i.imgur.com/W8LaElp.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

October Results: Pound, Gold and Bitcoin Prioritized Again, NASDAQ 100 Is the Newcomer1

The undisputed leader at the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1556XXX, whose profit amounted to 169,533 USD. This solid result was achieved in the British Pound (GBP/USD) trades.

The second step of the podium was taken by a representative of China, account No.1593XXX, with a result of 38,124 USD.Their profits were mainly derived from operations with gold(XAU/USD), bitcoin ( BTC/USD), as well as withNASDAQ 100 (USTEC.C). By the way, this is the first time since the beginning of the year when a person who makes trades in stock indices is included in the top three.

The third place is taken by a trader from Vietnam, account No.1416XXX, who earned 37,116 USD in October on transactions on the XAU/USD and EUR/AUD pairs.

The passive investment services:

- in CopyTrading, as before, one can mark the KennyFXPRO signal, The Compass. It has shown an increase of 108% since November 2020. At first glance, this is not such an impressive result (although it is ten times higher than the interest on bank deposits). But combined with a moderate maximum drawdown of 22%, this signal becomes quite attractive for subscribers who have invested over 75,000 USD in it.

TheSkyAngle signal can also be noted. It showed a profit of 76.64% in just the last two weeks of October with a maximum drawdown of 10.47%. This very good result was obtained mainly in transactions with the EUR/JPY and GBP/USD pairs. However, the signal has one serious drawback: it has a very short lifespan. Therefore, those wishing to subscribe to it should be extremely careful.

Of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, the signal MF989923, which is based on one of the Academy's MasterforeX-V trading systems. It has a lifespan of almost 2,500 days and has generated 510% profit (an average gain of 0.2% per day). However, it must be borne in mind that it has had serious drawdowns reaching 66% on several occasions in almost 7 years of the signal's life.

- In the NordFX PAMM service, as well as in CopyTrading, you can mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They have increased their capital by 53% on their account KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA since january 2021, with a drawdown of less than 16%.

Investors who prefer moderate returns with moderate risk may also pay attention to TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which has gained 34.5% since April 03 with a drawdown of 16.7%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 8,841 USD, was credited in October to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1258ХXХ;
- the next is a partner from India, account No.1504XXX, who earned 4,132 USD in a month;
- and, finally, a partner from China, account No.1336ХХХ, who received 4,087 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

And summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000 will soon be drawn.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 03, 2021, 02:37:18 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Lx1a81H.jpg)

- Film director Quentin Tarantino will present a collection of seven NFTs (non-fungible token) based on the 1994 film Pulp Fiction. Each NFT contains an uncut movie scene and bonus content available only to the owner, including original handwritten pages of the script, Tarantino audio commentary and other details about the movie and the director. The auction will be held on the OpenSea trading platform and will be announced later.
NFT is a non-fungible unique token. NFTs work on the blockchain, they first appeared back in 2017 in the Ethereum system. Secret NFT technology allows content creators to decide which collectibles are public and which are private to owners.

- Burger King fast food chain will give away cryptocurrency prizes to visitors in the United States. The prize pool contains 20 BTC, 200 ETH and 2 million DOGE. it is required to spend more than $5 at Burger King to participate in the draw.

- As bitcoin's math and logic do not allow copying or forgery of the first cryptocurrency, it surpasses the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. He also noted the decentralized nature of digital gold, which allows it to maintain a level of predictability that is difficult to achieve with the US dollar. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation.
“Look at the US dollar, the government can create new banknotes and borrow, it's like it will never be corrected. Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity. Another bitcoin can never be created,” said Steve Wozniak.

- The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it.
“Inflation undermines the income of the poor. Inflation makes the rich richer. Biden and the feds are corrupt. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” said Kiyosaki, who has always been very enthusiastic about bitcoin. “I love bitcoin because I don’t trust the Fed, the Treasury or Wall Street,” this investor said.

- The development team does not stop working on improving the Ethereum network, which inspires experts to make the most daring price predictions. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that now is almost the last opportunity to purchase ETH at a price below this mark.
Among the reasons for the increase in the price of this altcoin, we can consider the recent activation of the London hard fork. In addition, thanks to the latest Ethereum Altair update, a new all-time high of almost $4,500 was set on October 29. However, after this update, network fees have almost doubled, which cannot be considered a factor accompanying the growth of ETH.

- Cryptotrader hamster Mr. Goxx has its own collection of non-fungible tokens (NFT) called Goxx Capital. The tokens are made in the form of animated insert cards.
With NFT sales, the “business partner” (aka owner) of the hamster plans to assemble a new “trade office” for his pet. According to him, the updated workspace will expand the functionality for the hamster's activities, as well as provide more interactive elements for the so-called "wheel of intentions" and "decision tunnels".
Recall that the trading process boils down to the following: Mr. Goxx spins the wheel of intentions, on the basis of which one of 30 tokens is selected. Then the hamster must run through one of two decision-making tunnels: to buy or to sell a token. Mr.Goxx showed a profit of almost 50% in early September. Bitcoin, for example, was only 41% higher, the S&P 500 brought 6-7% to investors, and the Katie Wood ARK Innovation fund was 5%.

- The high price of bitcoin indicates that the economy is facing real inflation, and the rise in prices is not a temporary phenomenon. This opinion was expressed by PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel, Bloomberg writes. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment," Thiel said and expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency.

- It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page whitepaper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. Nakamoto summarized the main characteristics of the first cryptocurrency in the foreword to this document: “A fully peer-to-peer version of electronic money would allow sending online payments directly from one side to the other, bypassing financial institutions.”
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry.

- Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will continue for another six months to a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000, Woo predicts.

- TV presenter, best-selling author and former hedge fund manager Jim Cramer said during the Mad Money program on CNBC that he supports investors buying cryptocurrencies if they are aware of the risks associated with this asset class.
According to him, all the arguments in favour of cryptocurrencies are based on the “theory of a greater fool”, according to which there is always someone who is ready to buy an asset for a higher price, expecting to quickly resell it at a profit to someone else. However, when the "fools" are no longer found, the value of assets drops sharply. If people understand this, why not speculate in cryptocurrencies, Kramer said.
“I bought bitcoin and ethereum not for protection from inflation,” the TV presenter admitted. - To be honest, it was a kind of gambling for me. I was just playing on the psychology of the crowd, and I have no idea why the rate of these crypto assets went up. Most likely, there are a lot of overly enthusiastic people who want to sell them for a higher price. I have no attachment to ethereum, but I keep it, because millions of even bigger fools can buy it,” Kramer said.
Previously, he preferred to invest in gold and stocks, but now he believes that it is important to diversify the investment portfolio, 5% of which can be bitcoin or ethereum.

- Investors should invest in hedge funds and real estate, as traditional assets, including stocks and bonds, will lag behind them in the next year and will show a return of only 5%, according to analysts at JPMorgan Chase.
Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. At the same time, the growth of cryptocurrencies is projected at 15% per annum, which is twice the expectations from hedge funds and exceeds the real estate sector with 12.5%.
As for bitcoin, analysts estimate its fair value at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. If the BTC volatility drops by half, the $73,000 target will “look reasonable”.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 07, 2021, 04:20:48 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 08 - 12, 2021


EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The central events last week were the meetings of two regulators, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England. Traders were also certainly interested in data from the US labor market, including such an important indicator as the NFP, the number of jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

As expected, the Fed announced the curtailment of $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program starting this month. The purchases of treasuries will decrease by $10 billion to $70 billion in November, mortgage bonds - by $5 billion, to $35 billion. The total reduction in the volume of asset repurchase will remain at the same level of $15 billion In December.

Commenting on the results of the last meeting, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell said that the time for raising interest rates has not yet come, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then. At the same time, Powell noted that the pace of reduction of incentives can be adjusted at the beginning of next year both towards acceleration and towards deceleration, depending on economic conditions.

It can be understood from this statement of the head of the FRS that the regulator keeps a path to retreat, and one should not expect an early cut in the ultra-soft monetary policy at the moment. This interpretation pushed the stock indices up again, and Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq updated their historical highs once again.

(It is worth noting that for the first time, transactions with NASDAQ 100 (Ustec.c) helped one of the traders to become one of the most productive NordFX clients, earning a profit of $38.124 in October).

So, the US Central Bank is ready to make and adjust its decisions depending on the market situation. As for the European Central Bank, unlike the Fed, it believes the markets are wrong. ECB President Christine Lagarde said Oo Wednesday November 03 that the bank's Governing Council has clearly formulated three conditions for raising interest rates, and that these conditions will not yet be met in 2022.

Investors were not pleased with the macro statistics of the Eurozone either. Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) declined for the third month in a row, and the volume of industrial orders in Germany in September rose by only 1.3%, despite the fact that in August it fell by 8.8%. The growth in the yield of government bonds of the Eurozone countries, caused by their active sale, which reminds the markets of the prospects of the debt crisis, looks alarming as well.

All these factors put significant pressure on the common European currency and led to its fall, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair renewed its October lows.

Focusing on the recovery of the labor market, the head of the FRS outlined the priorities for his organization. Against this background, the dynamics of NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) becomes even more important. This US non-farm employment report is traditionally released on the first Friday of the month, this time November 05. According to its data, the number of new jobs in October was 531K (with the forecast of 425K and the previous value of 312K). In addition, the unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8% in September. Stock indices soared even higher against this background. As for the EUR/USD pair, after a correction, it completed the weekly session at 1.1567.

Naturally, most indicators on D1 face south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same could be said about oscillators. However, 10% of them have taken a neutral position, 10% are in the oversold zone and another 10% turned to the north at the very end of the week.

As for the experts, 25% vote for the growth of the pair, the same number is for its fall, and 50% is for the sideways movement. Support levels are 1.1535, 1.1500, 1.1485, 1.1425 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1910.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, data on the state of the consumer markets in Germany and the United States will be released on Wednesday, November 10, and the preliminary consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan will be announced on Friday, November 12. This index is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Shock from the Bank of England

The threat of stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, is very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022. These are very high rates, and a few days before the meeting of the Bank of England, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to act and raise interest rates more quickly than originally planned. As a result, the markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November and... were deceived in their expectations.

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England voted at its meeting on Thursday November 04 by seven votes to two to keep the interest rate at the previous level of 0.1%, and by six votes to three to keep the volume of asset purchases at £ 895 billion. Disappointed investors responded to the regulator with the collapse of the pound. The GBP/USD pair reached a local low, falling 270 points to 1.3425. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3490.

Andrew Bailey stated in response to criticism that he misled investors, that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it is not my job to manage the markets." Sylvana Tenreiro, an external member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, who believes that the Central Bank should not react to short-term shock situations and the problem of supply of goods will become less acute next year, spoke soothingly. The opposite position was taken by Deputy Head of the Bank Dave Ramsden, who said that he voted for a rate increase, as the shortage of labor is becoming more and more noticeable.

As some analysts note, there are currently growing expectations that London will decide to apply Article 16 of the EU Leaving Agreement. It is possible within the framework of this article for one of the parties to suspend part of the Brexit transaction if its further execution creates serious economic or other difficulties. That said, the EU's response could be more radical than the UK government expects. And this situation has and will continue to exert additional pressure on the pound.

The preliminary data on the UK GDP for the Q3 will be released on Thursday, November 11. They may affect market sentiment along with macro statistics from the US. In the meantime, analysts' opinion is as follows: 55% of experts bet on bears to win, 35%, along with graphical analysis on D1, support bulls, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

Among the oscillators on D1, 75% is colored red, 25% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3470, 1.3420, 1.3380, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Sideways Trend Again

The charts of the last three weeks showed that the upward momentum of the USD/JPY pair has dried up, and it has moved to its favorite activity: the sideways trend, limited by the range of 113.40-114.40. The yen rose on the back of the 10-year Treasury yield decline to 1.53% and continued to strengthen at the end of the working week, finishing at the lower boundary of this channel.

The current situation is clearly confirmed by the spread of expert opinions and indicator readings. Among analysts, 50% expect the pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel, 25% to move along the 113.00 Pivot Point, and 25% to fall to the 112.00 area. It should be noted that, when moving from weekly to monthly forecast, the number of supporters of the latter increases to 50%.

There is a complete discordance among the oscillators on D1: 35% look north, 40% south, 15% give oversold signals and the remaining 10% turn neutral grey. There is a neutrality among the trend indicators: 50% side with the green ones, the other 50% side with the red ones. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.25, further targets are 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Ethereum Renews Its High

(https://i.imgur.com/XCf6XzV.jpg)

It was 13 years ago, on October 31, 2008, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The nine-page technical document described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared in April 2011, and the public was never able to find out who wrote these 9 pages, which marked the beginning of a multi-billion-dollar industry. More precisely, multi-trillion, since the total crypto market capitalization reached a new all-time high last week, exceeding $2.7 trillion.

But the share of bitcoin has decreased again: its dominance index fell over the week from 44.15% to 42.84%. The historical record of $ 66,925, set by bitcoin on October 20, has not yet been broken. The bulls did try to update this result on Tuesday November 02, but having reached the $64,260 high, the BTC/USD pair reversed and rolled back to $60,000. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Greed zone at 73 points (70 weeks ago).

While the main cryptocurrency is marking time, the attention of many investors has turned to altcoins. Ripple rose in price (XRP/USD), and the ETH/USD pair updated its all-time high once again, reaching $4.657 on Wednesday November 03.

Among the top altcoins, Ethereum attracts with its long history and use in many projects. The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. However, after the activation of the London hard fork and the latest Ethereum 2.0 Altair update, commissions on the network have almost doubled, but the developers promise to solve this problem.

The past week is the sixth in a row since the beginning of the rise in the rate of Ethereum, which has added 75% since September 21. This token appears now to be targeting the $5,000 level. And this is not a limit. So a reputable cryptanalyst known as CryptosRUs predicts that ETH will soon reach $10,000. Moreover, he is confident that it is almost the last opportunity now to purchase this altcoin at a price below this mark. The forecast of Goldman Sachs specialists, who do not exclude that the ETH/USD pair may rise to $8,000 by the end of the year, is somewhere in the middle.

Of course, it would be unfair to say that the market has completely forgotten about bitcoin. Many investors and experts still single out this cryptocurrency. Whales added 142,000 BTC to their wallets in the last week of October alone, according to Chainalysis.

“Bitcoin is mathematics, mathematical purity” that allows it to maintain a level of predictability. Therefore, it outperforms the US dollar. This was stated by Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak in a recent interview with Yahoo Finance. In his opinion, regulators can create new paper notes on their whim, and therefore it is difficult to predict inflation of fiat money.

The author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki, like Steve Wozniak, has criticized the administration of President Joe Biden and has declared his distrust the US federal government. He believes that the authorities "rip off people", promote inflation and do not try to reduce it. Get ready for an economic collapse and a new depression. Be smart. Buy gold, silver and bitcoin,” Kiyosaki urged. “I love bitcoin because I don't trust the Fed, Treasury, and Wall Street.”

Chinese crypto analyst Willie Woo said in an interview with Bitcoin Fundamentals that the current “bullish” growth cycle for bitcoin is very different from previous similar periods. Woo noted that the latest wave of BTC accumulation began at the end of last year, when institutional investors began to enter the crypto market, aiming at the long-term accumulation of digital assets. This factor, in his opinion, indicates that the current growth cycle will be longer, will last another six months or a year, and the price of bitcoin during this period will exceed $100,000.

The forecast of analysts at JPMorgan Chase looks much more modest. Cryptocurrencies can continue to grow, but are unlikely to be stable, so they cannot be recommended as a key asset, JPMorgan says. As for bitcoin, its fair value is estimated by JPMorgan Chase analysts at $35,000. They came to such an assessment based on a comparison with gold, noting that the volatility of the cryptocurrency is about 4 times higher than that of the precious metal. However, if BTC's volatility is halved, the $73,000 target will "look reasonable."

PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel doubts as well that now is the right time to buy BTC. “You know, bitcoin is already worth $60,000 and I'm not sure it should be bought aggressively. But, of course, this tells us that we are in a crisis moment,” Bloomberg quoted him as saying. At the same time, Thiel expressed regret once again that he had not invested more money in the first cryptocurrency when its price was significantly lower.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 10, 2021, 03:10:48 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/dPKQMDQ.png)

- Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,420 on Tuesday, November 9. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.947 trillion. Analysts attribute the current rally to the lack of supply amid increasing global interest in digital assets.

- The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, so it is not only cryptocurrencies that are in the bubble. This opinion was expressed at the Boston conference by billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller. “Cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities [...] This bubble is in everything, every asset on the planet,” he said. At the same time, Druckenmiller noted that the current situation in the cryptocurrency market is not like the dot-com bubble, which, according to him, had covered significantly fewer people than the digital asset industry today.
Earlier, the famous American investor Bill Miller said that bitcoin is not a bubble, but the asset's volatility is a payment for its advantages.

- Newly elected Mayor of New York Eric Adams called in a CNN commentary on local schools to prepare students for a “new way of thinking” related to blockchain technology and digital assets. The politician noted the low awareness of Newbie trader voters on this subject: “When I talked about blockchain and bitcoin, Newbie trader people stopped me and asked me, 'What is this?” Adams called digital assets being "a new way of paying for goods and services around the world" as an argument for including this topic in curricula.
New York must remain a hub for innovation, he said. To this end, the newly elected mayor also plans to oblige local businesses to accept BTC and other cryptocurrencies as a payment method. In addition, he promised to receive his first three paychecks in bitcoin.

- Rahul Rai, manager of the BlockTower Capital cryptocurrency fund, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that, ETH is likely to become the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization which could reach several trillion dollars, as early as in mid-2022.
Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

- Apple CEO Tim Cook said he owns cryptocurrencies, using them to diversify his investment portfolio. According to him, he was interested in digital assets "for a while" and researched this topic. At the same time, the CEO of Apple emphasized that the corporation he heads is not going to invest in these financial instruments and does not plan to launch related services or integrate them as an option for paying for its goods or services.
Tim Cook noted that "there are other things that Apple is definitely looking at." It is still unknown what these words can mean. However, it was in May that the corporation opened a vacancy for a business development manager with five years of experience in the cryptocurrency industry, who is to lead the affiliate program in the segment of "alternative payments".

- Swedish regulators believe that mining bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies using the Prоf-оf-Wоrk algorithm will prevent the country and the European Union from complying with the Paris Agreement on climate change. Officials noted that this process leads to the emission of up to 120 million tons of CO2 into the atmosphere per year. This is equivalent to the carbon footprint of 100 million round-trip flights between Sweden and Thailand.
Regulators have called for a ban on the mining of digital assets in such an energy-intensive manner. At the same time, they believe that the use of renewable energy for mining is unreasonable, since "this energy is urgently needed for [...] large-scale production of batteries and the electrification of the transport sector." According to the University of Cambridge, the electricity used to mine 1 bitcoin is enough to drive 1.8 million kilometers in a medium-sized electric vehicle.

- “Purely bullish” sentiment reigns among retail investors regarding bitcoin. This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. This rarely plays into the hands of cryptocurrencies, analysts say.
The market, according to Santiment, has formed an “irrational trust” in bitcoin, which can lead to a price correction.
Retail traders are excited about the potential of bitcoin. As for the "bitcoin whales", the situation here is not so straightforward. On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones.

- Investment banking giant Morgan Stanley created a cryptocurrency analytics division in September. And now it has published a guide to the cryptocurrency market for its wealthiest clients. The bank's strategists conducted a detailed analysis of the various activities, sectors and trends that currently make up the highly speculative crypto industry.
Given that the total market capitalization has exceeded $2.8 trillion, and investors are increasingly interested in DеFi, NFT and stablecoins, Morgan Stanley is convinced that this will accelerate the introduction of state regulation in this area.
Morgan Stanley launched three bitcoin funds earlier this year. The minimum deposit required to participate in them is $5 million for institutional investors and $2 million for individuals.

- The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.
The review published by Kraken also notes that November has historically been volatile, which brings the highest monthly returns. If bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction can be expected. However, the drop will be no more than 20%.

- Assessing the price of the main cryptocurrency, analyst Willie Woo came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, the expert commented, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

- According to a cryptocurrency analyst known as Altcoin Shеrpa, altcoins will not show the expected high results in the near future due to the bullish exchange rate movement of BTC. “Pay attention to the drop in altcoin/BTC pairs if bitcoin starts moving,” he writes. "I believe that the altcoin season has not yet arrived. They will have time to prove themselves, but after the bitcoin rally cools down."
The analyst noted that bitcoin has formed a higher low of around $60,000, and while there is a possibility of a short-term decline, he expects the asset to grow significantly from current levels: “There is possibility of a short trip to $55,000. But I don't care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTС, and when it starts moving, it will be fast. "

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen, on the other hand, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,¬” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be possible to show better results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."
While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." "We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation."

- A well-known cryptanalyst under the nickname PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."
In the long term, PlanB sees BTC experiencing a hyperbolic surge.
“The old people have the money now. Real estate and gold are physical, not digital. Digital scarcity is a next generation phenomenon, so I'm sure it will happen. I see in my model (S2FX) that there is a linear relationship between scarcity and cost. Scarcity, in my opinion, is the most important factor causing this linear relationship and forcing people to invest more money."


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 14, 2021, 08:34:40 AM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 15 - 19, 2021


EUR/USD: Rising Inflation Equals to Rising USD

All US macroeconomic statistics turned out to be worse than forecast. But despite this, the American currency continues to grow. The DXY dollar index, which measures it against a basket of six other major currencies, hit 95.26 on Friday, November 12, gaining about 2% over the past two weeks. It would seem that everything should be the other way around. So, what is the reason for this strange situation? It turned out to be the rapid growth of inflation.

According to the Labor Department, the US CPI rose 6.2% in October, a record in more than 30 years. Inflation was higher only in November 1990. Compared to September, the price growth rate has accelerated by 0.8%, while core inflation (excluding energy and food prices) has accelerated to 4.6%, which is also the highest in three decades. And, apparently, this is not the limit. Inflation in the US is forecast to continue to rise in the coming months on the back of housing, utilities, energy and car prices. The CPI, which reflects the change in the cost of living in the country, has surpassed the 5% mark for the fifth month in a row. And this makes us doubt the assurances of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell that high inflation is temporary. However, not only investors are in doubt, but also the Fed itself.

According to classical economic theory, the dollar should have weakened significantly in such a situation. However, the COVID-19 pandemic has turned everything upside down, forcing regulators to implement monetary stimulus (QE) programs in the spring of 2020, flooding markets with cheap money and lowering interest rates.

Finally, the Fed reported that it is gradually beginning to curtail $120 billion of the asset purchase program starting this month. As for the rate hike, according to Jerome Powell, the time has not yet come for this, since the labor market has not fully recovered and, according to forecasts, this will happen by mid-2022. The Fed will be patient until then.

However, many investors felt that with such a galloping inflation, the Fed's patience could quickly run out and the regulator would be forced to raise rates before the summer of 2022.

An analysis of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) derivatives shows that there is a 64% chance that rates may rise even before June. Previously, the market was confident that the regulator would raise interest rates at least once next year. Now the likelihood that it will happen twice has increased from 63% to 80%, three times - from 29% to 49%. And some hotheads believe that the US Central Bank will take the first step in this direction this year.

All these expectations made the dollar continue to grow. It was further supported by the soaring yields on US government bonds. Growing inflation reduces the purchasing power of the coupons paid on them, and there are few people willing to invest in securities, the yield on which covers inflation by only a third.

As for the data on the US labor market published on November 9, the inflation-shocked market practically ignored them. But they also turned out to be much worse than forecasts. The number of repeated claims for unemployment benefits was expected to decrease by 50K, and it rose by 59K instead.

The growing dollar pushed the EUR/USD pair to the lows of July 2020. It dropped to 1.1432 on Friday, November 12 and ended the week at 1.1446. The American currency has gained almost 900 points against the euro since the beginning of this year. And if the situation continues to develop as it is now, it will not stop there.

Indicators on D1 confirm this forecast, pointing to the south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone.

In anticipation of a correction, 40% of experts vote for the growth of the pair. 60% vote for its further fall. The nearest support level is 1.1435, then 1.1350 and 1.1250. Resistance levels are 1.1525, 1.1575, 1.1615, 1.1665, 1.1715.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, there will be preliminary data on the Eurozone GDP for the Q3 on Tuesday, November 16. Data on retail sales in the United States will be released on the same day, they are very important for assessing the impact of inflation on the country's consumer market. The working week will end with a speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Friday, November 19.

GBP/USD: Another Victory for the Dollar

(https://i.imgur.com/BtWavJ7.jpg)

The dollar, pushed by inflation in the US, continues to put pressure on the British currency, as a result, the GBP/USD pair has been falling for the sixth month. It updated another low last week and settled in the zone of long-term support/resistance, where it has been periodically since 2016. The local minimum of the week was fixed at 1.3352 this time, and the last chord sounded at 1.3421.

The macro statistics released on Thursday; November 11 did not help the pound either. And it seems that GDP for the Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, but the growth rates of the UK economy slowed down by more than 3.5 times, from 23.6% to 6.6%, and the industrial production growth rate fell from 4.0% to 2.9% (against the forecast of 3.4% ).  Such a sharp slowdown, especially noticeable against the background of smoother similar indicators of the Eurozone and the United States, disappointed greatly, and even scared investors.

The threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy, which is still under pressure from the Brexit effects. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

This is a very high rate, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates earlier than planned. The market reaction was similar to the one that strengthened the dollar last week. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down.

UK unemployment data are due out on Tuesday November 16, followed by October CPI data the next day. Naturally, the state of the labor market and inflation will have an impact on market sentiment and the dynamics of the pound. In the meantime, analysts' opinions are almost equally divided: 35% of experts bet bears on the victory, 35% support the bulls, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position.

As for the oscillators on D1, 85% is colored red, 15% indicates that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators are 100% red. Support levels are 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3510, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

USD/JPY: Treasuries Strike

Giving a forecast for the previous week, most analysts expected the USD/JPY pair to return to the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. At first, it seemed that this forecast would not come true: the pair continued its corrective movement to the south, reaching the level of 112.70. However, it then turned and soared to 114.30, confirming the expectations of experts. The week finished at 113.90.

The reason for this reversal was the “inflationary” strengthening of the dollar and, of course, a sharp increase in the yield of US Treasury bonds, with which the USD/JPY pair has a long-standing friendship. In other words, there is a direct correlation dependence.

Given the soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates will also affect the dynamics.

A number of experts consider the rise of the USD/JPY pair to 114.00 as a return to the bullish trend that began back in January 2021. Although, the charts in the interval between March 10 and September 27 show that in the absence of strong drivers, the sideways movement can drag on for several months. Unlike the euro and the pound, the yen is a safe haven currency, and therefore is able to withstand storms in financial markets for a long time.

55% of analysts currently expect the pair to continue to rise, break through the upper boundary of the 114.40 channel, rise to a range of 115.00-116.00 and renew its multi-year highs. The opposite point of view is held by 35% of experts, and the remaining 10% expect the USD/JPY pair to stay in the 113.40-114.40 side channel for some time.

As for oscillators on D1, 80% face north, 10% face south, and 10% turn gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 100% are on the green side. The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.80, then 113.40, 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

Monday, November 15, can be noted in the calendar for the coming week. Data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 will be published on this day, and, according to forecasts, this important indicator will decrease from + 0.5% to -0.2%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $668,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, climbing to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index climbed from 73 to 84, entering the Extreme Greed zone, indicating that the main cryptocurrency was heavily overbought, and a correction was needed. Which then followed: setting a record, the BTC/USD pair turned around and rolled back into the $63,000-64,000 zone.

With regard to bitcoin, the sentiment among retail investors is "extremely bullish". This is reported by the analytical resource Santiment with reference to the off-chain BTC indicators. But the situation is not so clear-cut among the "bitcoin whales". On the one hand, the total volume of coins on addresses with balances of 100-10,000 BTC has decreased by almost 60,000 BTC over the past 10 days. On the other hand, it has grown significantly on addresses with balances of more than 10,000 BTС. According to experts, this may indicate that large whales are buying coins from smaller ones, protecting bitcoin from a sharp drop.

The correction that took place on November 10 was only about 8.5%. "Only", because with the typical volatility of bitcoin, this is not much. The current situation can be defined as "irrational confidence" in this coin on the part of investors, which can lead to a much stronger price correction.

The specialists of the Kraken crypto exchange agree with this. The review they published notes that November has historically been volatile, resulting in the highest monthly returns. But if bitcoin's current rally stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected, meaning the BTC/USD pair could drop to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa calls the same figure. “There is the possibility of a short-term hike to $ 55,000,” he writes. “But I don’t care about these minor movements. I continue to accumulate BTC, and when it starts to move up, it will be rapid."

Another well-known expert, Willie Woo, came to the conclusion that the zone from $50,000 to $60,000 is more than reliable as a support. Bitcoin has secured a capitalization of $1 trillion, and it is difficult to imagine that it will fall below this zone, he said, referring to data from the analytical company Glassnode.

Bitcoin is a hedge against inflation, and the US has currently seen a record rise in consumer prices, which is a strong argument in favor of the flagship cryptocurrency. Despite the curtailment of the QE program and the expectation of an increase in interest rates, signs of a possible sharp devaluation of the dollar frighten investors, forcing them to invest in alternative assets in the stock and cryptocurrency markets. As a result, both BTC and stock indices update their historical highs over and over again. And forecasts for bitcoin will be in the green zone until the US Federal Reserve moves on to a broader tightening of its monetary policy.

The top of bitcoin's current bull cycle may be the price of $96,000. This conclusion was reached by analysts of the Kraken crypto exchange. According to their research, the current Q4 has dynamics most similar to the Q4 of 2017 (correlation 0.88), which showed a yield of +220%. In general, cryptocurrency exchange experts predict that BTC will reach heights around $300,000.

A respected cryptanalyst known as PlanB said that bitcoin could rise by 700% in early 2022. “If you look at the signals along the chain right now, I dare say that the price will reach the top in almost 6 months, this will be the end of Q1 of next year. - he thinks. - I believe that we will have a BTC rate of $100,000 at the end of the year, and then, perhaps, the currency will continue to grow up to model X (S2FX) and reach the level of $288,000, and possibly more. I would not be surprised if I saw the price rise to $400,000 - 500,000 in Q1 and Q2 of next year."

Unlike many optimists, crypto strategists Benjamin Cowen, on the contrary, believes that bitcoin will not please its supporters with explosive growth. “We started with about $28,000 to $29,000 and this was the start of 2021,­” writes Cowen. “What have we seen so far? Not much, right? Will it be able to show more significant results by the end of the year? Maybe, but I'm not sure that 2021 will be the year of a parabolic rally for bitcoin."

While the distance between the low and high of the annual range may seem significant, Cowen noted that bitcoin holders are unlikely to be thrilled with such profits: “Look what happened to bitcoin in 2021: nothing special. The profitability was about 130%, and I am sure that most holders will not even get up from the couch for 130%." “We have returned to the top of the range, so there may be some euphoria, as it was from January to March 2021,” the expert continues to reason. - There are chances of a sharp leap, but the data shows that the cycle should last at least through 2022. Looking back to 2021, I think it was, for the most part, a year of long-term re-accumulation.”

Ethereum, the main competitor of bitcoin, showed significantly higher profitability, it grew 6.7 times in 2021.  And the year is not over yet. Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization, which could reach several trillion dollars.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

And at the end of the review a warning from the billionaire, founder of Duquesne Capital and one of the most successful managers on Wall Street, Stanley Druckenmiller. The value of any asset can collapse at any moment, he warns. According to the financier, "cryptocurrencies, meme stocks, art, wine, securities ... There is a bubble in everything, in every asset on the planet." And bubbles, as you know, often burst.

“Every event in the world affects a certain amount of security,” explains Druckenmiller. "I try to imagine the world as it is today, and then I try to see if there are any seismic changes and what the world might look like in 18 months. And if this is true, then what securities will be worth very differently than now? I think that many investors live only in the present. It might work in the short term, but it's a disaster in the long term.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 17, 2021, 04:58:18 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/s6WzMty.jpg)

- US President Joe Biden signed a bill to raise $1.2 trillion to upgrade infrastructure without amendments in favor of representatives of the crypto industry. The document contains an extended definition of the concept of “broker”. Depending on the interpretation, miners, wallet developers, DeFi protocol liquidity providers and other digital market players may be required to report the activities of their users to the tax authorities. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.
The document has been repeatedly criticized by representatives of the crypto industry, including the head of Tesla Elon Musk and the founder of the payment company Square Jack Dorsey. Some senators believe that participants in the crypto industry should be excluded from this law. According to others, only miners and sellers of hardware and software should be exempt from reporting to the tax authorities.

- Investing Twitter's cash reserves in cryptocurrencies “does not make sense right now”. This was stated by the financial director of the company Ned Segal. According to him, the social network prefers to invest in less volatile instruments, for example, securities. Earlier, Ned Segal reported that Twitter is exploring the possibility of using bitcoin, but this will require the company to make additional decisions.
As of the end of September, Twitter had $3.47 billion in cash and cash equivalents, as well as $3.94 billion in short-term investments.
Meanwhile, the payment company Square, founded by Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, continues to hold the main cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. “We have purchased bitcoin, and it seems to us that this not only demonstrates our interest but can also bring benefits from a financial point of view in the long term,” the Square said.

- Bitcoin will “easily” reach a price of $500,000. This forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, referring to the limited issue of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of rich investors in it. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.
In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

- The US authorities will sell the confiscated cryptocurrency for $56 million to pay the victims of the BitConnect pyramid. The Justice Department notes that this is “the largest case of one-time recovery of losses from cryptocurrency fraud in the United States.”
The US Securities and Exchange Commission said in a statement that “BitConnect Director Glenn Arcaro and his promoters, none of whom were registered with the Commission as a broker-dealer and were not affiliated with a registered broker-dealer, promoted a potentially high-yielding investment into a lending program for retail investors using recommendation-style videos they posted on YouTube. "
Glenn Arcaro pleaded guilty to deceiving investors in the US and abroad, with the participation of whom the scheme managed to attract more than $2 billion. The verdict will be delivered on January 7, 2022, Arcaro faces up to 20 years in prison.

- Apple will inevitably allow payments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies in the future. This opinion was expressed by Anthony Pompliano, co-founder of the investment company Morgan Creek Digital, commenting on Apple CEO Tim Cook's recognition of investments in digital assets.
Pompliano believes that cryptocurrency will not be a separate industry, and all tech giants will sooner or later "infiltrate it into all existing assets and industries." In his opinion, technology companies will more actively enter the cryptocurrency industry in the next 10-20 years, inviting experts and leaders from it.
“It has become normal to discuss cryptocurrencies in any society without risking being branded as 'crazy or lost.' Such conversations do not carry career risks anymore,” he added.

- European electronics and home appliance retailer MediaMarkt has been hit by the Risk aversione ransomware virus. According to Retail Detail, the incident affected many of the chain's stores, mostly in the Netherlands and Germany, and the retailer's 3,100 servers were affected. Initially, hackers demanded a ransom of $240 million in bitcoin. But after the company entered into negotiations, the amount was reduced to $50 million.
For reference: MediaMarkt owns more than 1000 retail facilities in 13 countries. The company employs about 53,000 people and has an annual turnover of over €20 billion.

- Chinese crypto journalist and analyst Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the first cryptocurrency.
The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.
Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.
Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.
The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

- An undisclosed crypto investor bought 2.2 thousand BTC coins in October 2013, spending about $330 thousand. And so, he withdrew cryptocurrency from his wallet, which had been inactive for eight years, on this November 10. The investments of the crypto investor have increased 455 times during this time, and the value of the asset has been almost $150 million.

- it was a few months ago that there started to sound predictions that the price of bitcoin could soar to $100,000 by December. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone was an active supporter of this scenario. This analyst is known for having previously accurately predicted a repeat of the BTC run three years ago and a rise in quotes to $20,000 by the end of 2020.
However, there are skeptics among the experts. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” says popular crypto analyst Nicholas Merten. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

- The authorities of Miami (USA) have decided to distribute $21 million in cryptocurrency to residents of the city. Thus, each of the 442,000 Miami residents will receive approximately 0.0007 BTC, which is about $47.
Miami Mayor Francis Suarez explained that he decided to take such a step in order to familiarize citizens with the concept of bitcoin. According to him, creating digital wallets for every resident is a rather laborious technical task, but he hopes for the help of cryptocurrency exchanges. After that, a digital registration system will be created to reduce the likelihood of fraud.
In addition, Francis Suarez stated in an interview with Bloomberg that one of the priorities for the city is the ability to pay civil servants their salaries in bitcoin. 


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 21, 2021, 04:24:21 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 22 - 26, 2021


EUR/USD: Closer to Parity

(https://i.imgur.com/DJ1O6eH.jpg)

We made a short equation in the title of the previous review on the EUR/USD pair: “Inflation growth = USD growth”, and last week's events confirmed its fairness. Strong data on retail sales in the US, released on Tuesday, November 16, allowed the dollar to rally again, and the USD DXY index to return to the values of one and a half years ago and renew the highs of 2021. With the forecast of 1.4%, retail sales in October increased by 1.7% (the growth was twice less in September, 0.8%). The retail control group indicator went up as well, showing an increase in October by 1.6% (forecast 0.9%, growth a month earlier - 0.5%). Recall that this indicator represents the volume of retail trade in the entire industry and is used to calculate the chain price index for most goods.

Investors were also pleased with the data on industrial production and the housing market in the United States. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.1263 on Wednesday, November 17.

 It is clear that in the current situation the market is most interested in how this or that macro statistics will affect the rate of curtailing monetary stimulus (QE) and the rise in interest rates by central banks.

Thus, the data published last week gave investors another argument in favor of an earlier rate increase by the US Federal Reserve. According to John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the country's economy is recovering at a steady pace, the US has a huge growth in employment, and unemployment is falling very quickly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard also added fuel to the fire when he said that the Fed should become more aggressive. If it accelerates the pace of QE reduction to $30 billion a month, this could provide an opportunity for raising rates in Q1 2022. Another "hawk", the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Rafael Bostic, believes that the Fed may start increasing rates in the middle of next year. And even such a famous “dove” as Chicago Fed President Charles Evans agreed that “raising rates in 2022 may be appropriate.”

As for analysts, Bank of America believes that rising prices and wages will push the US central bank to raise the federal funds rate in the summer of 2022, and maybe even earlier. The most conservative aggregate forecast is given by Reuters experts. According to them, the rate will rise for the first time in the Q4 2022, followed by two more increases, in Q1 and Q2 2023, as a result of which it will reach 1.25-1.5% by the end of the year.

Unlike the United States with its economic growth, things are not at all so rosy in the Eurozone with its energy crisis and the impending economic war with Great Britain. The preliminary data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 published on Tuesday, November 16, showed the absence of even minimal growth. Well, at least there's no fall.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said speaking to the European Parliament that the increase in interest rates in 2022 does not correspond to the plans of her bank, since the conditions for monetary restriction will not be implemented in the coming year. According to the regulator, tightening monetary policy in such a situation will do more harm than good.

The euro weakened not only against the dollar, but also against other currencies after such statements by the head of the ECB. Great Britain helped the European currency a little. A record rise in inflation in this country pushed the GBP/USD pair up, and it pulled EUR/USD along with it. Two more factors also played into the hands of the euro. The first is the 66th update by the S&P 500 of its all-time high for this year. The second one is the possible resignation of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and the appointment of Lael Brainard, who is considered to support a softer monetary policy, in his place.

A number of investors, influenced by the above factors, decided to take profit on short positions. But this only briefly helped the European currency. Having risen to 1.1373, the EUR/USD pair turned around and continued its southward movement, updated the local low at 1.1250 and closed the trading session at 1.1288.

If we translate what is happening on both sides of the Atlantic into the language of the military, then things have not yet come to real military clashes: neither side has yet raised the interest rate. The matter is limited to the maneuvers and statements of the chiefs of the "general staffs", that is, of the Central Banks. Although, of course, divergences in economic growth, as well as in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB, are likely to push the EUR/USD pair further down. Moreover, there is still room for it to fall. Recall that the quotes were at the level of 1.0635 in March 2020, 1.0352 in December 2016, and the pair was even below the parity line at 0.8225 in October 2000.

Indicators at D1 confirm the bearish forecast, pointing south. These are 100% among the trend indicators. The same can be said about oscillators, although 15% of them are in the oversold zone.

35% of experts vote for the correction and growth of the pair in the short term, 50% vote for its further fall, and 15% expect a sideways movement. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1250, then 1.1175 and 1.1075-1.1100, then 100 points lower.

As for the upcoming release of macroeconomic statistics, preliminary data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released on Tuesday, November 23. And the volumes of orders for capital and durable goods in the United States, as well as preliminary data on US GDP for the third quarter, will become known the next day. And finally, the minutes of the meeting of the US Federal Reserve Committee (FOMC) will be published on Thursday, November 25, from which investors will try to understand how strong the "hawkish" attitude among the leadership of this regulator is.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Rate Hike on the Pound

As mentioned above, inflation in Britain hit 4.2%: the highest level since 2011 (it was 3.1% in September). The jump came amid rising energy prices and worsening supply problems. However, the core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed an increase of 3.4% (2.9% a month earlier). According to many economists, consumer prices will continue to rise further in the coming months.

The released statistics increased the likelihood that the Bank of England will decide to raise the interest rate on the pound this December. This contributed to the rebound of the GBP/USD pair from November 12 low of 1.3352, to which it fell after the US recorded its highest growth in 30 years inflationary pressure.

In general, the macroeconomic statistics of the United Kingdom looked quite optimistic last week, supporting the pound.

It became known last Tuesday that the number of jobs in the country increased by 160K in October. This figure is especially important against the background of the fact that the state program for subsidizing wages, which was in force during the COVID-19 pandemic, was completely phased out in September. Many experts expected employers to start cutting jobs after the end of support. However, this did not happen and the labor market, on the contrary, continues to recover. The UK unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the Q3.

Recall that the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, speaking of curbing inflation on November 4, did not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates more quickly than planned. And now the published indicators allowed the bulls to seize the initiative and raise the pair to a height of 1.3513 on Thursday, November 18. However, this was followed by a rebound, and it completed the five-day period at 1.3444.

If the key rate for the pound increases in December, we can expect the GBP/USD pair to grow to the 1.3800-1.3900 zone. However, while this has not happened, most analysts (75%) expect the pair to fall further. Only 25% bet on a quick victory for the bulls.

As for the oscillators on D1, 80% are red, 10% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are still 100% red. Support levels are 1.3400, 1.3350, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

As for the macro statistics for the coming week, it is worth noting the publication of the UK Services Business Activity Index (PMI) on Tuesday November 23. This indicator, published by the Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply in conjunction with Markit Economics, is an indicator of the economic situation in the field of sales and employment in this sector. However, it is not as important as the country's manufacturing PMI

USD/JPY: Still East

While the US Federal Reserve cuts monetary stimulus, the ECB has frozen QE at the previous level, the Japanese government announced an unprecedented program of economic stimulus for the total 55.7 trillion yen ($487 billion) on Friday November 19. Tokyo hopes that this measure will increase the country's GDP by 5.6%. As stated, the Bank of Japan will pursue an appropriate monetary policy, closely monitoring market movements and the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the economy.

“We hope that the Bank of Japan is clearly aware of the urgency of the measures and continues to coordinate closely with the government to achieve a proper mix of fiscal and monetary policy,” the Cabinet of Ministers of Japan said in a statement.

In what way did the USD/JPY pair react to this event? well, actually... in no way. A safe harbor should remain calm no matter what.

In general, the dynamics of the pair fully followed the forecast given the previous week. Most analysts expected the pair to rise, break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel and try to update multi-year highs. This is exactly what happened: the pair was noted at a height of 114.96 on November 17. However, then the strength of the bulls dried up, and the pair returned to the mid-term trading range, putting the last chord in its central part, at the level of 114.00.

Given the ultra-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan and the expansion of control over the yield curve, it is highly likely that the weakening of the yen and the growth of the pair will continue. And that USD/JPY will not only reach the 115.00-116.00 range, but will also consolidate there, updating the 2017 highs. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve regarding interest rates as well as the yield of American treasuries will also affect the dynamics.

As a result of the backward movement that the pair demonstrated last week, the oscillators on D1 are completely confused: 20% of them point north, 40% - south and 40% - east. There is no unity among trend indicators either: 60% look up, 40% - on the contrary, down.

The picture is similar among analysts. 40% of them expect the growth of the pair, the same amount expect its fall, and the remaining 20% just shrug their shoulders.  The resistance levels are 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.40, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fall and Rise?

Bitcoin updated its all-time high, reaching $68,917 on Wednesday, November 10. Ethereum also set a record, rising to $4,856. The total capitalization of the crypto market at the maximum reached $2.972 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose to 84, being in the Extreme Greed zone, which indicated that the main cryptocurrency was strongly overbought and the need for a correction that was not long in coming.

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange in the previous review, according to which if the current growth of bitcoin stops at strong resistance around $70,000, a correction of up to 20% can be expected. That is, the BTC/USD pair may fall to $55,000.

The cryptocurrency analyst Altcoin Sherpa called the same figure. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range ­from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support.

In addition, Willie Woo argues that bitcoin is not ready for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs at the moment. Woo identified three factors that hinder the rise in price of the main cryptocurrency.

The first factor is bitcoin's high speculative activity. Woo argues that while long-term investors continue to accumulate cryptocurrency, a large number of positions are being opened for short-term speculative purposes.

Another factor that can hold bitcoin back is the launch of the first US exchange-traded fund (ETF) based on bitcoin futures. According to Woo, most institutional investors prefer to buy fund stocks and futures at the moment instead of buying the coin itself.

Recall that the first US exchange-traded fund based on bitcoin futures began trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 19. Its assets exceeded $1 billion two days after the start of trading. Thus, the fund broke the record growth rate to $1 billion, which was held for 18 years.

The third factor is the overly optimistic sentiment of investors who are confident in the further growth of bitcoin and the entire cryptocurrency market. “Whenever most investors are bullish, it is very difficult for the price to go up because there are a lot of speculative longs in the markets,” Woo explains.

Analyst Nicholas Merten is also skeptical about the near future of the flagship cryptocurrency. “We won't get $100,000 or $150,000 in this Q4 or next Q1,” he says. “I'm sorry, but I'll have to say that. I think that many experts are mistaken. Bitcoin is aiming for growth, but we will only see around $100,000 or $150,000 by the fall of next year.”

At the time of writing the review, the BTC/USD pair is around $58,000, the local minimum was recorded on November 19 at $55,638. The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.590 trillion. At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell by as much as 50 points, to 34, being in the zone of Fear.

The news background is neutral. More precisely, it is ambiguous. On the one hand, for example, the Bitcoin Taproot network was updated on November 14 - the first major change in functionality since 2017. The main cryptocurrency needs to become more efficient, scalable and confidential. On the other hand, US President Joe Biden signed a bill to upgrade the infrastructure. Depending on the interpretation of this document, it may turn out that miners, wallet developers, liquidity providers in DeFi-protocols and other players in the digital market may be required to report to the tax office. The crypto community is also concerned about another amendment to the infrastructure plan, which will oblige recipients of digital assets worth more than $10,000 to verify the sender's personal information.

No confidentiality!

A very good reason is needed for bitcoin to rise sharply again. And if it does not appear, the BTC/USD pair has many chances to stay stuck for a long time in the zone ­$50,000 to $60,000, sagging from the maximum by 15-30%. However, the current drawdown does not prevent many crypto enthusiasts from maintaining remarkable optimism.

Thus, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment company, is confident that bitcoin will “easily” reach the price of $500,000. He gave such a forecast, referring to the limited emission of the first cryptocurrency and the potential number of wealthy investors. He noted that according to JPMorgan, there are at least 49 million dollar millionaires, but the supply of digital gold is limited to 21 million coins. “You don’t have enough bitcoins for every millionaire in our society to have at least one coin,” Scaramucci said.

In his opinion, the current price level is still an early opportunity to enter the asset, and the price of the first cryptocurrency will reach the specified $500,000 mark by the end of 2024 or mid-2025. However, this requires that Ark Invest's forecast come true, according to which the number of bitcoin wallets should reach 1 billion by this time.

***

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NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 24, 2021, 03:36:06 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/W7D2YrD.jpg)

- Latvian law enforcement officers detained a suspect in creating a fraudulent cryptocurrency project, who disappeared with €500,000 stolen from deceived customers. According to the police, the detainee is the creator of the Hodlife project and the token of the same name and operated from Spain. He promoted the fraudulent platform on social media, promising quick profits, and he made an exit scam last June and disappeared with investors' money. According to preliminary estimates, more than a thousand investors have suffered.
The stolen funds were laundered through mixing services, but Interpol employees were able to establish a link between different wallets and tracked the attacker.

- US Senator Cynthia Lummis criticized Hillary Clinton for concerns about cryptocurrencies. Earlier, during the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, former First Lady, Secretary of State in the Obama administration and participant of the presidential race in 2016, Mrs. Clinton said that cryptocurrencies can undermine the dollar's status as a reserve currency. Digital assets can also destabilize entire countries, she added.
“Great leaders are not afraid of the future. America could be a winner by adopting bitcoin as a hard currency that can be used to stabilize the dollar and reverse the tailspin that began in 1971,” Lammis wrote in response. She did not elaborate on how the first cryptocurrency should stabilize the dollar, but she did mention 1971. US President Richard Nixon completely abolished the gold standard then, transferring control of the money supply to the Fed. It is believed that this has made the economy more prone to inflation, allowing the printing of unsecured money.

- According to research by The Advisor Coach, Dogecoin is the most searched cryptocurrency in 23 US states. Bitcoin and ethereum are on the second (10 states) and third (eight) lines. The fourth place is a clone of Dogecoin, Shiba Inu.
Analysts explained Dogecoin's leadership by Elon Musk's attention to this asset. Tesla CEO invited users to vote for the option of accepting payments in Dogecoin back in May. Prior to this, the billionaire reported that SpaceX will launch the Doge-1 satellite to the moon in 2022. According to him, the mission is fully paid for with this meme cryptocurrency.
Dogecoin was worth $0.001353 on October 1, 2020. The price rose to $0.6311 per coin In May 2021, or 465 times. However, by the time of this writing on November 24, 2021, it has lost more than 65% in price, falling to $0.2172.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and CIA officer who asked for asylum in Russia, said that he treats dog-like tokens like Dogecoin or Shiba Inu badly. According to him, many take meme coins seriously and may suffer losses because of this.
Against the background of the growing popularity of such assets, fraudsters have become more active. The team behind Shiba Inu warned users about the spread of fake project groups on social networks.

- Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for inventing the first cryptocurrency. This initiative was made by Daniel Leon, co-founder and COO of the Celsius Network crypto platform. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," Daniel Leon argued for his position.
He explained that before the advent of cryptocurrencies, people were forced to trust intermediaries, which are centralized institutions like banks and governments. With digital assets, this is no longer necessary. According to Daniel Leon, trusting the "code" rather than the middleman is easier and safer.
“When you lend money to your bank, it pays you 0.1%, but when you borrow, you pay 7.73%. Where is justice? To make matters worse, if a credit institution fails, the government bails it out. In the event of a failure of the government itself, it simply prints money: 30% of all dollars in circulation have been issued in the last 18 months,” COO Celsius Network said indignantly.

- Over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.
31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. At the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the assets of billionaire families as a whole is still only 1%. Most of the respondents said that they plan to keep the volume of such investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

- A new report from analyst firm Glassnode showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts pointed out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC, which in turn means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are only building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.
The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Newbie trader Ju also expressed a similar opinion to Glassnode. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.
Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Newbie trader Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

- The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has once again criticized the decision of the El Salvadorian authorities to recognize bitcoin as the official currency. “Given the high volatility of the bitcoin price,” the Fund said in a statement, “its use as legal tender carries risks for consumers and also threatens financial integrity and stability. Its use also gives rise to contingent fiscal liabilities,” the review says.
The IMF came to this opinion following the visit of its staff to El Salvador. Experts who visited the country recommended that the government of El Salvador "narrow the scope of the bitcoin law and strengthen the regulation and supervision of the new payment system."

- A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.
The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the “bottom” of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

- Chief commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone believes that, despite the temporary correction in prices, BTC will grow in 2022. He said on his Twitter account that the asset is likely to face resistance at $100,000 and the $50,000 mark will act as a support level. “The level of adoption of this Newbie trader technology/asset is increasing, and the supply volume is less and less, which indicates signs of maturation,” the expert explained his forecast.

- The CEO of the American investment management company ARK Invest Katie Wood confirmed her previous forecast for the price of bitcoin at $500,000, saying that this will be facilitated by the growth of institutional investments. Such a price will be achieved if institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, said last week that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin." “I think gold was probably the best asset to own,” he added. "But bitcoin is simply the best version of storing value..."
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of another investment firm, Skybridge Capital, also expects bitcoin to "ultimately outshine gold." The price of this cryptocurrency, in his opinion, will easily reach $500,000, so one should invest in BTC right now. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.
Paul Tudor Jones, a legendary trader with a personal fortune of $4.6 billion and fund manager of the Tudor Investment Corporation, has also admitted recently that he prefers bitcoin over gold. In his opinion, BTC is an excellent alternative as a hedge against inflation in the current economic situation. “It is obvious that there is room for cryptocurrency,” the billionaire said. “At the moment, it is winning the race against gold... And I would prefer it.”


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Borja Mouna on November 26, 2021, 02:01:30 AM
Nice.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 28, 2021, 11:55:22 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 29 - December 03, 2021


EUR/USD: Panic Named B.1.1.159

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after Thanksgiving. Let us remind you that the day Thursday, November 25 was a day off in the United States. And since the lion's share of capital is controlled by banks and funds located in this country, the lull comes in financial markets around the world on this day.

So, what happened before November 25? And there was everything, as predicted by most experts. Divergence in the economic growth of the US and the EU, as well as in the monetary policy of the FRS and the ECB, the energy crisis in Europe continued to push the EUR/USD pair further down. The reanimation of the Brexit theme contributed to its fall. As a result, the pair reached a local bottom at 1.1185 on the evening of November 24. This was followed by holiday Thursday and… the markets woke up on Friday.

And they not just woke up but woke up panicked by the news that a new dangerous strain of coronavirus has been discovered in South Africa that may be insensitive to existing vaccines. WHO convened an urgent meeting, noting that almost 100 cases of infection with the new strain B.1.1.159, which has a "large number of mutations", have already been recorded.

Against the backdrop of this alarming news, investors' expectations for an early increase in the Fed's interest rate went down, and pessimism, on the contrary, rose. According to experts from CME Group, if the likelihood that the rate will remain unchanged until June 2022 was 18% on Thursday, it rose to 34% on Friday.

Compared to November 24, the yield on 10-year Treasuries dipped by almost 10%. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes flew down. The markets began to run away from risks. Investor panic and falling US Treasury yields helped EUR/USD bulls to raise the pair to 1.1321, where it ended the working week.

In fact, it is difficult to predict to which of the American or European economies the new wave of coronavirus may do more harm. According to ING Group analysts, it is now important to understand whether the new COVID strain has already reached Europe (which is geographically closer to Africa). This could further worsen sentiment in the Eurozone and put pressure on the euro.

The difference in the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB will undoubtedly continue to influence the behavior of the EUR/USD pair. Several representatives of the European regulator have recently made it clear that the central bank intends to complete the Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program (PEPP) in March 2022. The pair barely reacted to these comments. But the meeting of the ECB Governing Council on December 2, dedicated to monetary policy, may become the main event of the coming week. Markets expect not just words and hints, but specific decisions on the timing of the completion of the emergency PEPP program and adjusting the volumes of the main Asset Purchase Program (APP), QE analogue. Moreover, the volume of APP can be increased to compensate for the folding of PEPP. It is also possible that the regulator will raise inflation forecasts for 2021-2023.

It is logical to assume that the Fed's hawkish policy and the dovish policy of the ECB will continue to push the EUR/USD pair south in the coming months. Goldman Sachs experts predict that the key USD rate will rise in June, September and December 2022, and the Fed will increase the volume of QE reduction to $30 billion per month starting from January. The rate may be raised twice more in 2023 and will reach 1.5%. The ECB, on the other hand, plans for 2023 to take only the first step. Until then, it will be easy to watch record price growth in the Eurozone countries.

However, it is possible that the December 02 meeting of the Governing Council of the European regulator will bring investors some hawkish surprises. Therefore, the most cautious of them will begin to close short positions in advance, fixing profits, which in the short term will lead to further growth in EUR/USD.

35% of experts who vote for the growth of this pair in the coming week agree with this development. The opposite position is taken by 55% of analysts who believe that the ECB will not make any significant changes to its monetary policy now. The remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend.

Indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color. There are 75% of them both among oscillators and among trend indicators. As for the oscillators, 15% give signals that the pair is oversold, and another 10% have taken a neutral-gray position. As for trend indicators, 25% changed from red to green by the end of the week.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1300-1.1315, 1.1360, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1230, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, apart from the ECB meeting, the publication of numerous statistics on the consumer markets of Germany and the Eurozone should be noted. These data will be released on November 29 and 30, December 01 and 03. As for the US, we are expecting a speech by the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who held this post for a second term, on Tuesday, November 30, the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private sector and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be published on Wednesday December 01. And investors traditionally wait for data from the American labor market on the first Friday of the month, including such an important indicator as the NFP: the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: Pound Rescue Is in the Rate Growth

The GBP/USD pair also followed the forecast of the overwhelming majority (75%) of experts until Friday, November 26, falling to 1.3275, the lowest point for the last 5 months. The last chord of the week sounded at 1.3350.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Lord David Frost, the UK minister responsible for implementing the EU deal, said that while there was a desire to find a negotiated solution to the Northern Ireland problem, the gap between the positions of the UK and the EU was very large. The British Government is therefore prepared to use article 16.

As a reminder, the Northern Ireland Protocol was signed two years ago as part of the treaty on the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union. According to London's statements, it was precisely because of the shortcomings in this document that the country faced supply disruptions and a shortage of goods. For this reason, the British government offered Brussels a new version of the protocol, which European officials saw with hostility.

As for article 16 of the current document, it allows either party to unilaterally take "protective measures" in the event that the protocol leads to "serious economic, social or environmental problems" that persist for a long time.

Fears about a new strain of COVID, which caused investors to flee from risks, are also unlikely to help the British currency. Yes, the GBP/USD pair grew slightly on Friday due to the general weakening of the dollar (the USD DXY index fell to 96.037). But the pound has long been considered a riskier asset than the dollar. And expectations about the increase in interest rates were revised by the market not only in relation to the American, but also the British currency.

Threats of recession and stagflation, combining weak GDP growth and high inflation, are very dangerous for the British economy. According to forecasts of experts from the Bank of England, the annual inflation rate will accelerate to about 5% by April 2022 and will decrease to the target level of 2% as late as by the end of 2022.

These are very high rates, and shortly before the meeting of the Bank of England on November 4, its head Andrew Bailey said that with such indicators, it may be necessary to raise interest rates more quickly than planned. The markets believed that the regulator would raise the key rate in November, and... they were deceived. The Bank of England did not raise the rate, and the GBP/USD pair went further down. And Andrew Bailey told disappointed investors that "we never promised a November rate hike" and that "it's not my job to rule the markets."

Now, in addition to all other worries, there are also concerns about a new wave of the pandemic and the impact of the B.1.1.159 strain on the country's economy. And we are talking about raising the Bank of England rate not in November, but in December. And this is not at all great: while the probability of a rate hike by 15 basis points was estimated at 75% on Wednesday, November 24, then it fell to 55% two days later.

If, following the results of the December meeting, the British regulator still raises the rate, this will push the GBP/USD pair up. 70% of analysts hope so. As for the next week, their opinions are divided equally: 50% expect growth from the pair, 50% expect a fall.

But the indicators on D1 clearly support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about the oscillators, but 15% of them have reached the oversold zone.

Support levels are 1.3300, 1.3275, 1.3200, the target of the bears is 1.3135. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls are 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

The head of the Bank of England will make a speech on Wednesday, December 01. Investors hope that Andrew Bailey will clarify the situation with what the future monetary policy of this regulator will be.

USD/JPY: Who Benefits from COVID: Yen Takes Revenge

(https://i.imgur.com/RvPycb6.jpg)

What is bad for risky assets, is good for the yen. This immutable rule worked this time too. The Japanese currency gained 230 pips in just one day, dropping the USD/JPY pair to 113.043. True, it once again renewed its multi-year highs  two days earlier, on November 24, reaching a height of 15.514. The pair bulls were hoping this stellar rally would continue. But this didn't happen. We can only guess how many Stop-loss orders were knocked out after such a rapid reversal.

“This is a typical scenario: the flight of investors to the quality of the yen and the Swiss franc due to a new strain of the virus,” analysts from Societe Generale explained the incident.

The USD/JPY pair completed the trading session at 113.112. And now there is an intrigue: whether it will return to the trading range 113.40-114.40 or continue falling.

There are slightly more supporters of further movement to the south among experts, 55%. The remaining 45% expect at least a correction in this direction if not returning to a full-fledged upward trend. The indicators do not have even the slightest hint of unity either. As for the oscillators, 25% are colored green, 40% are red, 20% give signals that the pair is oversold, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The trend indicators have the same discord: 50% of them point to the north, the same amount - to the south.

Resistance levels are 113.40, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 113.00, then 112.70, 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macroeconomic statistics, retail sales data are due Monday November 29, followed by labor market and industrial production data in Japan the next day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Nobel Prize for Satoshi Nakamoto

We cited the opinion of specialists from the Kraken crypto exchange two weeks ago, according to which the BTC/USD pair could fall to $55,000. The cryptocurrency analyst Altsoin Sherpa called the same figure, $55,000. Another well-known journalist and expert, Willy Woo, cited a wider range ­from $50,000 to $60,000 as a reliable support. In addition, according to Willie Woo, bitcoin is not yet ripe for impulse growth and renewal of all-time highs.

Now, after a while, we can say that all these experts were generally right: the main cryptocurrency was moving, relying on support in around $55,500 and fixing the local maximum at $60.030 for all the following days, until Friday, November 26. And there was a panic in the markets on Friday. Frightened by the new strain of COVID, investors began to get rid of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The total capitalization of the crypto market fell to $2.460 trillion ($2.590 trillion a week ago). And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from the fear zone to the center of the scale, up to 47 points. The BTC/USD pair was trading in the $54,350 zone at the time of this writing, on the evening of November 26, having found a local bottom at $53,600 before that.

A report by analyst firm Glassnode (which was released before November 26) showed that the market is not showing massive profit-taking. Analysts point out that the total supply of short-term bitcoin holders is at a multi-year low below 3 million BTC. This, in turn, means that the amount held by long-term holders is at a multi-year high. At the same time, they are constantly building up their positions. The total number of wallets with a non-zero BTC balance in the second half of November also reached an all-time high of 38.76 million.

The data obtained by Glassnode indicates that there are no signs of serious surrender, and that the flagship cryptocurrency may still have a rather long upward rally.

A similar opinion to Glassnode was expressed by the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Newbie trader Ju. Despite the fact that bitcoin has been getting cheaper since the middle of last week, holders are in no rush to sell it. In parallel, there is a steady trend towards the withdrawal of cryptocurrency for autonomous storage. According to CryptoQuant, trading floors currently have the lowest amount of bitcoins since mid-2018.

Moreover, investors are withdrawing not only BTC, but also ethereum, which reduces the supply of the asset and eases the pressure on the market. In the long term, according to Ki Newbie trader Ju, this trend will drive the value of leading digital currencies upward.

A well-known trader and analyst known as Credible argues that the current correction of bitcoin is a necessity to continue the bullish trend and rise above $70,000. According to the expert, the first cryptocurrency is in the phase of a healthy correction at the moment.

The bitcoin price may fall to $52,000-53,000 in the near future, where the bottom of the current correction is located, Credible predicts. According to him, the $69,000 mark that bitcoin reached on November 10 cannot be the top of the current bull market, as historically each subsequent cycle of growth has lasted longer than the previous one.

Chief commodity strategist of Bloomberg Intelligence Mike McGlone, as well as Willy Woo, believes that the main support is slightly lower, at $50,000. At the same time, according to the expert, bitcoin will continue to grow in 2022, where it will face strong resistance around $100,000.

Founder of Skybridge Capital investment company Anthony Scaramucci expects that the flagship cryptocurrency “will eventually eclipse gold”, and its price will easily reach $500,000. “I think bitcoin is likely to be ten times better than gold... I would not be surprised if bitcoin grows exponentially and gold grows in line," said Anthony Scaramucci.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment firm Galaxy Digital Holdings, echoed him saying that gold "was just crushed by bitcoin."

The same target level for BTC, $500,000 was named by the CEO of ARK Invest Katie Wood, confirming her previous forecast. True, at the same time, she made a reservation that such a price could be achieved provided that institutional investors allocate 5% of their portfolios for bitcoin.

So far, 5% is out of the question. Indeed, the interest in digital assets among big business representatives is growing. So, over a quarter of super-wealthy families around the world have already invested in cryptocurrencies. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the British consulting company Campden Wealth, conducted among representatives of 385 family offices. The average capital managed by such offices is estimated at $1.6 billion.

31% of wealthy households in North America and 28% in Europe invest in cryptocurrencies, while this share is lower in the Asia-Pacific region, 19%. But at the same time, the share of cryptocurrencies in the portfolios of billionaire families is on average only 1%. The majority of those surveyed (68%) said they plan to keep the volume of crypto investments at the current level next year, 28% are going to increase them, and only 4% are going to reduce them.

And at the end of the review, news for Satoshi Nakamoto fans. According to Daniel Leon, COO of the crypto platform Celsius Network, the creator of bitcoin should receive the Nobel Prize in Economics for this invention. "This guy [Nakamoto] has brought hundreds of thousands of people more financial benefits than the bulk of economists in academia," said Daniel Leon.

Now the little thing to do is to find out if Nakamoto really existed. After all, the Nobel Committee is unlikely to decide to reward a person who has never existed...

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

This money will be useful to you, won't it?

It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 01, 2021, 04:46:15 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/LKoXYBq.jpg)

- Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers in stores. The undisclosed criminals have infected at least 16 devices in electronics retailers Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores.
According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.
The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

- Investors should take advantage of the latest correction in the digital asset market to build up their positions. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. He noted that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate the further growth of cryptocurrency quotes.
“If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. I just think that the risk is decreasing in the current situation. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also washes away some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good first quarter,” the financier explained. Scaramucci stressed that he considers the market reaction "healthy". He called what happened “healing bloodletting”.

- The bitcoin network has processed more US dollar transactions than PayPal since the beginning of 2021. This is stated in a report by Blockdata. The average quarterly for the decentralized network was $489 billion, while PayPal had $302 billion. However, both of these figures are inferior to the average quarterly volumes of such giants as Mastercard and Visa ($1.8 trillion and $3.2 trillion, respectively).
“It is impressive how bitcoin, being a 12-year-old P2P network, has 27% compared to Mastercard, a company founded in 1966,” Blockdata experts noted. At the same time, in their opinion, the bitcoin network is "fundamentally" different from Mastercard and Visa. It is more of a "saving technology" than a "spending" and has more options for use.
Experts believe it is realistic that the cryptocurrency will surpass financial giants as for the volume of transferable value at some point. But to do that, it needs to bridge the bandwidth gap, which they called "staggering."

- Option traders are Currency carry trade on bitcoin decline for six months for the first time since May. As noted by the CoinDesk portal, this situation does not necessarily imply a long-term market decline. The six-month expected volatility is now at historical averages, so options with more distant expiration are relatively inexpensive. Traders can buy put options in the hope of large profits for a small investment if the decline does occur. There is one more explanation for what is happening. It lies in the fact that traders are trying to protect their long positions in the spot market.
The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month. “Demand is particularly strong for puts with a strike price of $50,000,” the trading firm Paradigm noted.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett believes December could be the month of a rally in the cryptocurrency market, with Ethereum (ETH) and Dogecoin (DOGE) potentially leading it.
According to the expert, the dollar index (DXY), which compares the dollar to a basket of other fiat currencies, could face a downward momentum and give a bullish signal for the crypto market. In addition, Bennett uses a chart of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization (TOTAL). According to him, TOTAL is approaching the completion of the big bullish falling wedge. He also noted the discrepancy between the growing Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the downward exchange rate movement. A rising RSI during a downtrend is often interpreted as a hint of a bullish reversal.

- Imperial Arts French Art Gallery organizes the first ever auction of non-fungible tokens (NFTs) related to personal property owned by Napoleon Bonaparte. The unique auction is held to commemorate the bicentennial of the death of Napoleon I.
The auction will feature: Napoleon's cane from St. Helena, a golden snuffbox, a handwritten letter from Napoleon I to General Bertrand, an official imperial bust of the Empire, a miniature Bonaparte portrait and ivory painting in bronze case depicting Napoleon in the form of Colonel Garde chasseurs a cheval.

- Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, believes that owning bitcoin and other crypto assets is a way to avoid rampant inflation. In a new interview with CNBC, the head of the investment firm called BTC an "ideal" savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.
According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko.
In his opinion, investors should not be fooled by day-to-day fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, which do not necessarily reflect its true value. In the next few months, Yusko said, macroeconomic conditions could become "unstable" and owning BTC would be an advantage.

- 86% of hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform are their further use for mining, Cybersecurity Action Team experts said. The software needed to do this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack. In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection from the users themselves, analysts noted.

- Bitcoin was down $53,360 this week in response to declines in stock indices and commodity futures. The situation is caused by the emergence of a new strain of the Omicron coronavirus. Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, believes that investors should buy bitcoin right now, during the correction, as its rate will double in a year.
“Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” says Green. He also suggested that concerns about the spread of Omicron will be short-lived, and investors will again focus on rising inflation.

- According to cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen, the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. That is, within the framework of the current correction, the fall of the first cryptocurrency will not exceed 25% of the historical maximum set on November 10. A similar situation occurred in September, when bitcoin was correcting after reaching $52,000. Then the value of the asset dropped by 23%, after which the coin returned to growth.
Cowen added that the support line for the current bullish trend passes at the $51,000 level. Even if it falls to this level, it is highly likely that the price of the cryptocurrency will push off from this level and begin to rise. At the same time, the specialist admitted that false breakouts of this level could occur.

- Crypto strategist known as Smart Contracter believes that bitcoin is almost ready for a recovery. Smart Contracter uses the Elliott Wave Theory, which predicts the future movement of the rate based on the psychology of market participants, which is manifested in the form of waves. According to his calculations, BTC has completed a 5-wave correction movement and is now ready for a new round of growth.
“There are no signs of an immediate reversal yet, but I believe we have seen the final volumes of surrender. In my opinion, in the case of a worst-case scenario, the BTC rate should rebound sharply to $63,000. The most positive scenario is a new historical maximum,” the expert said.

- The subscribers of the well-known analyst known as PlanB, the creator of the S2F forecasting model, agreed with the opinion that the main cryptocurrency will be able to continue to grow. About 80% of survey participants believe that the maximum recorded on November 10, 2021, around $69,000 is not the limit. According to PlanB, the coin is expected to break through the $100,000 level by the end of the year. However, most of the community members name the $75,000 mark. Ethereum, they believe, is able to rise in price to $7,500 over the same period of time.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2021, 10:39:16 AM
Results of November 2021: British Pound is "Favorite" Again

(https://i.imgur.com/veiOMtD.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The leader by the end of the month was a trader from India, account No. 1596XXX, who earned USD 207,329 during the month. Such a solid profit was made on transactions with a variety of currency pairs, primarily with the British pound: GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. Other trading instruments of the leader include EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, and AUD/JPY.

- A client from Vietnam, account No. 1416XXX, occupied the bottom line with a result of 37,116 USD in the October TOP-3. A month later, in November, they improved their result more than four times, and climbed to the second step of the podium with a profit of 153,572 USD.

- The third place is taken by a trader from India, account No. 1560XXX, whose profit was obtained from transactions with GBP/USD and amounted to 56,254 USD.

The passive investment services:

- Two signals are currently highlighted in CopyTrading: USD Trading and GFS_FX. The first of them showed an increase of 408% in 43 days of life. 100% of transactions were conducted with the GBP/USD pair, which is favorite of many traders. Such a high result achieved in such a short period can attract many investors. However, the maximum drawdown of 47% indicates the need to be as careful as possible.

As for the second signal, GFS_FX, it looks less aggressive. It exists for a little more than six months (196 days) and brought a profit of 135% during this period. The bulk of transactions (more than 70%) is also related to the British pound: these are the GBP/USD, GBP/AUD, and GBP/JPY pairs. The maximum drawdown was 34%, so those wishing to subscribe to it should also be very careful.

The lifespan of these signals is rather short and is calculated in months. But, of course, there are long livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for about 7 years, and as a result, it showed an increase of 515%. The signal had serious drawdowns several times during this time, reaching 66%. However, this happened a long time ago for the last time, in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 10 months with a fairly moderate drawdown, less than 16%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the first position is still held by a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1258XXX, whose commission in November amounted to USD 8,447;
- the next, with a slight lag, is also a representative of Vietnam, account No. 1371XXX, with a result of 7, 225 USD;
- and, finally, the third step of the podium is taken by a partner from India, account No. 1504XXX, who received 6,523 USD as a commission.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 05, 2021, 04:46:25 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 06 - 10, 2021


EUR/USD: Employment and Inflation Decide Everything

Markets are now ruled by two factors: fear of the new COVID strain and monetary tightening by central banks. It is not yet very clear how dangerous the Omicron strain is and how it will affect the economy. Therefore, the main focus is shifting towards central banks and, first of all, the US Federal Reserve. Thus, 19 Reuters experts have named the difference in interest rates as the main market driver, while 15 have pointed to Omicron.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in the US Senate on November 30 had a bombshell effect on the markets. And all because analysts and commentators saw a harsh hawkish attitude in his words. As a result, stock indices, Dow Jones, S&P500, Nasdaq, flew further down, while the DXY dollar index rushed up.

The dollar played back 147 points against the euro in less than an hour, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.1382 to 1.1235. However, then the markets calmed down as quickly and, in anticipation of data from the US labor market, the pair went up.

Inflation and employment: these two indicators are defining in the current policy of central banks.

The ECB continues to insist that the increase in inflation is temporary, so it makes no sense to take measures to contain it now. Although some people believe that the Bank's Governor Christine Lagarde's speech on December 02 hinted at an imminent tightening of monetary policy, however, nothing was said about specific steps. Although it would be possible to tackle this problem already. The data on producer prices released last week look frightening: their growth rates accelerated from 16.1% to 21.9% (against the forecast of 18.3%). These figures indicate that inflation in the Eurozone, which has already reached 4.9%, will not stop there and will continue to grow. As for the European labor market, the progress here ­is more than modest: unemployment fell by only 0.1%, from 7.4% to 7.3%.

Statistics from the US labor market look much better. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits rose less than expected: to 222 thousand against the forecast of 245 thousand, and the four-week moving average of the indicator fell to the lows of March 2020. At the same time, the number of people receiving benefits for the first time since the beginning of the pandemic fell below 2 million, to 1,956 thousand.

But the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was only 210 thousand, which is significantly less than both the forecast (550 thousand) and the previous value (546 thousand). However, this fall does not look so dramatic against the background of the country's labor shortage. Suffice it to say that, due to a shortage of personnel, the number of laid-off people in the United States dropped to a 28-year low.

The unexpectedly low NFP data is unlikely to have a strong impact on the Fed's decisions. There are many reasons to believe that the Federal Reserve may accelerate the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus (QE) program at its meeting on December 14-15. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and her colleagues Mary Daley of San Francisco and Rafael Bostic of Atlanta actively support the idea of accelerating this process. And Randal Quarles, outgoing vice chairman of the Fed, considers such fiscal and monetary incentives harmful to the economy. In his opinion, they have inflated demand so much that it has exceeded the pre-pandemic level, and the high inflation is no longer temporary, but permanent.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen also believe that the time has come to drop the word "temporary". This means that the inflation forecast will be revised upwards, and the schedule for raising interest rates will become more intense.

Most likely, the difference in monetary policy between the Fed and the ECB will continue to put pressure on the EUR/USD pair, pushing it further down. 50% of experts agree with this forecast, while 35% of analysts have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% vote for the sideways trend.

The trend indicators on D1 have a predominantly red color, these are 65%. But there is confusion and disparity among the oscillators: 40% of them point to the south, 35% to the north and another 25% have taken a neutral position.

Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1260, then 1.1235, 1.1185-1.1200, then 1.1075-1.1100.

As for the events of the coming week, it should be noted that the data on GDP of the Eurozone for the Q3 will be issued. Increased volatility can be expected on Friday, December 10, when the German and US CPIs, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will become known. This indicator is an indicator of the US consumers’ confidence in economic growth and assesses their willingness to spend money.

GBP/USD: Back on the Bear Trail?

The behavior of the GBP/USD pair last week was similar to that of EUR/USD. It reacted similarly to Jerome Powell's speech in the Senate and to data from the US labor market, and as a result it ended the five-day week at 1.3225.

Concerns about Brexit remain the main factor of pressure on the pound. Irish Foreign Minister Simon Coveney said on December 03 that there are still significant differences between the EU and the UK on the application of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The politician added that there was no breakthrough in the negotiations, and that these differences are unlikely to be overcome before the end of this year.

The GBP/USD pair failed to gain a foothold above the 1.3300 horizon. According to analysts at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB), the British currency may continue to decline in December, although it will be difficult for it to overcome strong support at 1.3195 (November 30 low). If successful, the pair will open the way to support at 1.3135. For the bulls, task No.1 is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3300 zone. And if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16, this will not be a problem.  Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

30% of analysts hope for the pair's growth in the near future, 45% expect it to fall further, and 25% have taken a neutral position. But the indicators on D1 definitely support the bears. 100% of trend indicators point to the south. The same could be said about oscillators, but 15% of them give signals that the pair is oversold.

USD/JPY: Yen Won't Retreat

The USD/JPY pair went beyond the trading range 113.40-114.40 at the end of November, and, as most experts expected (55%), continued to move south, reaching the local bottom at the level of 112.52 and having updated the seven-week low. This was followed by a trend reversal, several unsuccessful attempts to return the pair to the 113.40-114.40 channel and a finish at 112.80.

The yen is supported as a safe haven currency by investor fears regarding the spread of the Omicron coronavirus strain. However, now that the initial wave of panic has passed, this advantage over the dollar is gradually fading away.

It should also be borne in mind that Japan is in a difficult position because the country's debt to GDP ratio is too high. And according to a number of experts, it is necessary to adopt a new package of monetary stimuli, which will put additional pressure on the yen, in order to increase the pace of economic recovery.

Until that happens, UOB analysts believe the pair may retest the 1.1250 support, but the chances of breaking below are slim. If it does manage to do so, it will face the next obstacle in the 111.85-112.00 area. According to experts at Credit Suisse, the pair needs to rise above the 113.70-114.00 zone to implement the bullish scenario, and then overcome the resistance at 114.80. This will be a good start for a move to the five-year high of 115.52, which was recorded on November 24.

Most of the experts (55%) are currently on the side of the bulls, 25% side with the bears and 20% expect a sideways movement of the pair. 90% of the oscillators are still facing south, but a quarter of them are in the oversold zone, the remaining 10% have turned north. The ratio is 65% to 35% among trend indicators in favor of the reds.

The resistance levels are 113.40, 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. The nearest support level is 112.50, then 112.00 and 111.65.

As for macro-economic statistics, data on GDP of Japan for Q3 will be released on Wednesday December 08. This indicator is expected to move from a decline (minus 0.8% in Q2) to a modest growth of 0.4%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

(https://i.imgur.com/maISfRf.jpg)

There were no significant changes on the crypto front throughout the working week. Bitcoin and ethereum, along with stock indices and investor risk appetites, even went up at the beginning of the week. But it was only a temporary respite. The cryptocurrency market went down during the night from Friday to Saturday, dipping by about 20%. The BTC/USD pair returned to levels ten weeks ago, falling to $41,620, while ETH/USD fell to $3,510. And this despite the fact that ethereum tried to renew its all-time high just three days before that, rising to the height of $4.771.

The true reasons for what happened are not yet clear at the time of writing the review, but it all looks like someone's speculative combination on a thin night market, when major investors are asleep ahead of the weekend days. This version is also supported by the fact that the quotes of the main cryptocurrencies jumped up within a few minutes after the fall. Bitcoin went up 15%, rising to $48,000. It is possible that it was those who were behind this drop that who replenished their stocks of coins very quickly at a "discount" price. Although, this is only a guess.

The President of El Salvador managed to take advantage of the drawdown of the flagship cryptocurrency. Nayib Bukele acquired another 150 BTC, increasing his wallet to 1,370 coins. True, at the same time he complained that he slept through the moment of the collapse for only 7 minutes, so he had to pay about $48,000 per coin.

At the time of this writing, on the afternoon of December 4, the total crypto market capitalization is at $2.2 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has shifted from the neutral center of the scale to the Extreme Fear zone, to 25 points mark (47 weeks ago).

According to Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, investors should buy this cryptocurrency right now, as its rate will double in a year. “Panic is the right time to buy BTC,” Green said.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital Management, who believes that investors should not be fooled by the daily fluctuations in the price of bitcoin, agrees with him. According to the financier, it's not that bitcoin is getting better over fiat currencies. They are getting worse than bitcoin. “There is a global race to the bottom,” says Martin Yusko. Therefore, BTC is an ideal savings asset in a world where governments are in a race to devalue their currency.

Much the same thought was expressed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former director of communications in the Donald Trump administration. “If you believe in long-term fundamentals like we do, then now is the time to buy. The volatility of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is knocking people out of the game. It also flushes out some of the leverage, which, in my opinion, creates a springboard for a good Q1," the financier explained, adding that not only fundamental factors, but also the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, indicate further growth in cryptocurrency quotes.

Time will tell whether these optimistic influencers are right or wrong. For example, cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen has recently argued that the value of bitcoin will not fall below $50,000. But it did. At the same time, we cannot but mention another negative signal for investors: option traders are Currency carry trade on bitcoin's decline for six months for the first time since May. The price ratio for weekly, monthly and three-month contracts also shifted to the “bears” earlier this month.

And in conclusion of the review, a traditional and not very serious rubric of crypto-life hacks. We will tell you how some are trying to make money on cryptocurrencies. But at the same time, we strongly advise you NOT to follow their example.

Police in the Spanish city of Tarragona arrested a 33-year-old man and a woman who installed hidden miners on computers... in stores. The criminals infected at least 16 devices in electronics stores Mediamarkt and El Corte Ingles department stores. According to available information, the woman distracted employees and asked for help to start the laptop, which she allegedly bought in their store. Meanwhile, her companion was installing the Nicehash miner and the Anydesk program for remote access to computers on display sample laptops.

The new laptops running at full capacity have raised suspicion among consultants. Mediamarkt's CCTV cameras filmed the accomplices visiting the store three times, and the police were able to identify them from the video.

It is probably appropriate to cite here one more figure concerning the criminal mining of cryptocurrencies. According to the Cybersecurity Action Team experts, 86% of the hacked accounts on the Google Cloud platform were subsequently used for mining, and the software required for this was loaded on average 22 seconds after the hack.

In many cases, attackers gained access to accounts due to poor protection on the part of the users themselves. Therefore, dear readers, be as vigilant as possible.

***

Clients of the brokerage company NordFX continue to accumulate lottery tickets: the New Year's draw of this Super Lottery will take place soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

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Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 08, 2021, 05:00:23 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/JCvzeos.jpg)

- The collapse of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on December 04 occurred against the background of investors' flight from risky assets and the fall of the stock market. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital Research called general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain "Omicron" and because of the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible acceleration in the pace of curtailing the monetary stimulus program, as the reason for the fall in the crypto market.

- Bitcoin is unlikely to have time to renew the highs before the end of 2021 and reach the $100,000 mark after the recent crash. This opinion was expressed by the chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan in an interview with Bloomberg. “I think this level can be the goal for 2022,” the top manager said. In his opinion, the growing support from institutions will be the driver, and there are “fundamental driving forces” for this.
Also, giving a forecast for 2022, Hougan predicted an “explosion of activity based on ethereum”. A Bitwise spokesperson highlighted the DeFi, NFT, Web 3.0 and metaverse sectors, as well as the growing potential of altcoins. “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

- President Joe Biden's administration has published the United States Anti-Corruption Strategy. This is the first time that such a document mentions cryptocurrencies. “The Ministry of Justice will use the established National Cryptocurrency Law Enforcement Group to focus on comprehensive investigations and prosecutions of the criminal use of digital assets,” the Strategy says. This group will focus on "crimes committed by exchanges, mixing services and money laundering infrastructure entities."

- A poll by Grayscale Investments showed that more than a quarter of US investors (26%) already own bitcoin, more than half of them (55%) have acquired an asset in the last 12 months. 77% of respondents view digital gold as an investment asset and only 20% see bitcoin as a means of payment.
Despite the popularity of the retention strategy, one in six investors sold at least part of their digital assets, 91% of them did so at a profit.

- Back in early June, El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele announced that his country was going to mine BTC using energy from the region's volcanoes. He distributed a video at the end of September talking about the start of construction of the corresponding facility.
However, one of El Salvador's leading ecologists, Ricardo Navarro, believes that BTC mining using geothermal volcanic energy will eventually lead to an environmental disaster. Such energy is quite expensive, and its price is even higher than that of oil. As a result, in his opinion, the country will simply have to purchase more oil. Navarro also insists that "Bukele is not really aware of what is happening with the energy situation."

- The higher the bitcoin rate, the more often it is buried. It is paradoxical, but true: as the quotes grow, skeptics who write obituaries for cryptocurrency become more active. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.
The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation.
Unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain has doubts about blockchain technology as well: “From time to time I dig into the myriad of junk that masquerades as the genius of blockchain, mathematics and computational logic that underlies cryptography. Read it yourself: it's 10% fun and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

- Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss believes that bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year after the collapse to $42,000. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

- The USA called "Moscow City" a hub for illegal cryptocurrency transactions. Experts of the Recorded Future company, which specializes in cybersecurity, claim that there are about 50 crypto exchanges that are engaged in illegal activities in this business center of the Russian capital. Recorded Future concluded that part of the payments to the ransomware went through "Moscow City", reports The New York Times.
The US authorities announced In September the imposition of sanctions against the Russian crypto exchange Suex, which has offices in Moscow and St. Petersburg. US officials claim Suex facilitated the withdrawal of ransomware and scammers' funds. This is the first time in US history that the authorities have imposed sanctions on a crypto exchange.

— According to Finbold, Americans suffered about $3.94 billion in losses from various cybercrimes in the first three quarters of 2021, which was the highest in history. Thus, cybercriminals stole at least $12.78 million daily. Compared to three quarters of 2020, losses increased by 83% ($1.9 billion). They amounted to about $1.2 billion In the same period of 2019, and $818 million in 2018.

- A well-known investor and economist Louis Navellier believes that a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which may lead to a strong correction of risky assets. As a result, bitcoin could drop to $10,000.
Navellier recalled that a serious fall in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction of risky assets in February-March 2020.
This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. This may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.
“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 12, 2021, 01:50:09 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 13 - 17, 2021


EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

We titled this section of the review “Employment and Inflation Decide Everything” last week. It is these two parameters that determine the monetary policy of central banks in the current situation. The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place on Thursday, December 16, and the markets expect the regulator to speed up the procedure for curtailing incentives, and, perhaps, even increase the interest rate. Undoubtedly, these decisions will be influenced by the macro statistics released in recent days.

The report from the US labor market published on December 09, looks pretty good overall. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits was expected to grow by 3,000, but it fell by 43,000 to 185,000 instead. This is the minimum in more than half a century, since 1969. On the other hand, the situation with repeated applications turned out to be worse than forecasted: their number increased by 38 thousand  instead of falling by 72 thousand. But if we sum up both indicators, we get a reduction in applications by 5,000, which confirms the trend towards the recovery of the labor market. Moreover, the number of open vacancies has grown by 431 thousand: there is already a shortage of labor in the United States.

As for inflation, the higher it is, the greater the chances that the Fed will begin to tighten its monetary policy even faster. And we are talking not only about reducing the repurchase of assets, but also about raising the key rate, which can lead to a further strengthening of the dollar.

Inflation in the United States has currently reached record levels in more than forty years and, judging by the data released on December 10, continues to grow. The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 6.8% on an annualized basis in November from 6.2% in October. As for the core index (Core CPI), it was 4.9% YOY, which is also higher than the previous value (4.6% in October). And the market will be now waiting to see how the Fed will react to these numbers at the upcoming meeting. The head of this organization Jerome Powell and his colleagues convinced investors earlier of their readiness for aggressive monetary restrictions.

About 70% of Financial Times experts believe that the return of monetary policy to the pre-Covid level will proceed quite smoothly, and the interest rate will reach 1.5% by the end of 2023 (it is 0.25% now). At the same time, only 10% of the surveyed analysts expect that the first stage of the rate hike will occur in the Q1 of 2022, 50% are Currency carry trade on the Q2. As for the complete curtailment of the $120 billion quantitative easing (QE) program, more than half of the respondents believe that this will happen by the end of March of the coming year.

The next meeting of the European Central Bank will be held on the same day as the Fed meeting on Thursday, December 16. We have already written that, unlike the Fed, the ECB plans to take its first step in this direction only in 2023. It will calmly watch the record price increases in the Eurozone countries until then. But there are chances that the European regulator will nevertheless decide to accelerate, following the example of its overseas colleague, and turn from a dove into a hawk. This will be a pleasant surprise for the EUR/USD bulls. And this cannot be ruled out, especially since the hawkish statements of such authoritative officials as Isabel Schnabel are beginning to sound from the depths of the ECB.

This member of the Bank's Governing Council said the other day that asset purchases were an important tool during market shocks and recessions, but the balance of QE advantages and disadvantages deteriorates during the period of economic growth, increasing the risks of financial instability. And the market reacted by albeit short-term, growth of the European currency even to this, in general not binding statement of Mrs. Schnabel.

In anticipation of the Fed and ECB meetings, the EUR/USD pair revolves around Pivot Point 1.1300 for the second consecutive week. This time, it completed the five-day period near this line at 1.1316. Among experts, 75% expect further strengthening of the US currency, 20% are Currency carry trade on the growth of the euro. The remaining 5% have taken a neutral position.

But the two-week sideways trend causes confusion and discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 60% are colored red, 40% are green. As for oscillators, 40% point to the south, 30% to the north and another 30% to the east. Resistance levels are located in the zones and at levels 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1300, then 1.1265, 1.1225, 1.1185, then 1.1075-1.1100

As for the events of the coming week, in addition to the meetings of the Central Banks and subsequent comments of their management, the release of statistics on retail sales in the US on Wednesday December 15, as well as the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone on December 16 should be noted. In addition, a meeting of the European Council will take place on Thursday and Friday.

GBP/USD: Ahead of Fed and Bank of England Meetings

December 16 will bring a lot of excitement to traders: in addition to the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England will also make a decision on further monetary policy and interest rates on this day. The value of the business activity index in the UK services sector Markit will become known the same day. In addition, data on unemployment will be released on Tuesday December 14 and inflation in the UK consumer market on Wednesday 15 December.

The pound weakened last week after the UK government introduced new quarantine measures due to a new strain of COVID-19. According to statistics, the number of infections with the Omicron strain doubles every two to three days. Simple calculations show that with such dynamics, the number of infections may exceed 1 million by the end of the month (10.6 million cases have been recorded in the country since the beginning of the pandemic). The situation is of concern for investors, and therefore they do want to receive information from the Bank of England whether the Omicron coronavirus strain has influenced the plans to curtail the stimulus program.

The bulls for the GBP/USD pair were not pleased with weak macro-economic statistics, which turned out to be worse than forecasted. Also, the pound continues to be under pressure from the consequences of Brexit and significant disagreements between the EU and the UK over the Northern Ireland Protocol, due to which, according to British officials, the country is faced with a shortage of goods and supply disruptions.

At the same time, 40% of analysts still hope for the pair to grow. But if the Bank of England does not raise rates again, their hopes will melt like the morning fog over London. And given the government's position on quarantine, the regulator is highly likely to leave the rate unchanged at least until February 2022. The majority (60%) of the experts vote for this outcome of the meeting.

Pending regulatory decisions, the GBP/USD pair completed the session in the same way it traded a week ago: in the 1.3265 zone. However, despite this, 75% of the trend indicators on D1 still support the bears. Among the oscillators there are 80% of them, the remaining 20% turned upward.

Task No.1 for the bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And this will not be a problem if the Bank of England does raise the interest rate on December 16.  Subsequent resistances are located at levels 1.3360, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835. The nearest support is located in the 1.3210-1.3220 zone, followed by the levels 1.3195, 1.3160, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960.

USD/JPY: The Yen Holds Defense. It holds it so far

(https://i.imgur.com/odOiOoC.jpg)

If the EUR/USD pair revolves around 1.1300 for the second week, USD/JPY does the same, only around 113.30.  The risk appetites that returned to the market and pushed up the stock indices, could not have any significant effect on the Japanese currency, which was supported by the statement of the member of the Board of the Bank of Japan Hitoshi Suzuki. He said commenting on the COVID-19 situation that if the US Federal Reserve starts to cut QE and raises interest rates faster than expected, the Bank of Japan could also raise long-term rates. According to Hitoshi Suzuki, rates may rise as soon as the coronavirus uncertainty disappears, which will help the Japanese economy continue to recover. It is certainly not worth expecting that the increase will take place at the next meeting of the regulator on Friday, December 17. The rate is most likely to remain at the previous negative level of -0.1%.

The deputy head of the Bank Masayoshi Amamiya tried to add optimism to investors. The country's economy was in stagnation, but, according to the regulator's calculations, it should recover during 2022, even despite the Omicron strain. The official’s comments came after the very weak data on Japan's GDP for the Q3 were released on Wednesday, December 8. They showed a drop of 0.9% against the previous value of minus 0.8% and a positive forecast of +0.4%.

Giving the previous forecast, most experts expected the USD/JPY pair to make another attempt to return to the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and it rose to the height of 113.95 on December 8, although then there followed a trend reversal a finish at the lower border of the channel, at 113.40.

As for the forecast for the coming week, 80% of experts believe that the pair will go up again with the help of the US Federal Reserve and, possibly, even break through the upper border of the 113.40-114.40 channel. The resistance levels are 113.70, 114.00, 114.40, 114.70, 115.00 and 115.50, the long-term target of the bulls is the December 2016 high of 118.65. Only 20% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario. The nearest support level is 112.55, then 112.00 and 111.65.

Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are still facing south, 30% remain neutral, and the remaining 10% have turned north. Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Overnight Crash in the Thin Market

There is still no definite explanation why bitcoin fell below $42,000 on the night of December 04. However, it is worth paying attention to the fact that the fall of the crypto market took place together with the fall of the stock market and the flight of investors from risky assets. The reason for this was the news about the largest real estate developer in China Evergrande. The media reported that its founder was summoned to the government because of the possible bankruptcy of the company, which could create serious problems for the entire world economy.

Galaxy Digital Research analysts believe that is not the case. The triggers for the collapse, in their opinion, were the general nervousness due to the new COVID-19 strain Omicron and the statement by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell about a possible faster curtailment of the QE program.

Be that as it may but having set a record on November 10 at the height of $68,780, the flagship cryptocurrency is rolling down for the fifth week in a row. And the optimism of experts and investors also decreases along with its value.

Bitwise Asset Management Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes that bitcoin is now unlikely to have time to update the highs and reach $100,000 before the end of 2021. “I think this level could be the goal for 2022,” said the top manager in an interview with Bloomberg. Growth should be driven by growing support from institutions, and for this, in his opinion, there are “fundamental driving forces”.

Louis Navellier, a famous investor and economist, believes that the “driving forces”, on the contrary, are directed downwards. A large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000.

Navellier recalled that a serious drop in the rate of the main cryptocurrency also followed during a similar correction in February-March 2020. This time, in his opinion, the situation could be even worse, and bitcoin could lose up to 80% of its capitalization. And this may be facilitated by the actions of the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy.

“A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) would be a bearish signal. Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top pattern, and such a decline could indicate a drop below $10,000. This is an 80% decline and bitcoin has already shown similar behavior,” the investor said, referring to the end of 2017.

Recall that then, a prolonged fall followed after a dizzying rise to $19,270. It lasted about a year and was called the crypto winter, during which the BTC/USD pair lost almost 85%.

A sharp turn to the south occurred not only in 2017, but also in the second half of 2019. And, of course, one cannot but recall a very recent example: April-July of this year, when bitcoin quotes sank 55% in three months.

These bearish waves hit the pockets and wallets of speculators hard and made us talk about a possible complete and final collapse of the crypto market once again. 99bitcoins calculated: the year is not over yet, and BTC has already been predicted death 41 times. The opponents of the coin were even more active only in 2017 and 2018: the premature death of the asset was reported 124 and 93 times then.

The latter of the current obituaries is by economist Bill Blain. Blain calls bitcoin a Ponzi scheme incapable of fulfilling the function of money, and argues that cryptocurrency accelerates inflation. Moreover, unlike a number of other crypto critics, Blain also doubts the blockchain technology: “From time to time, I dig through the myriad of garbage that disguises itself as the genius of the blockchain, mathematics and computational logic underlying cryptography... This is 10% fascinating and 90% complete nonsense,” he writes.

Well-known analyst and trader Ton Weiss, unlike Bill Blain and Louis Navellier, believes that it is too early to bury cryptocurrency. In his opinion, bitcoin has a better chance of reaching a new all-time high this year  after the current collapse. The coin needs to gain a foothold above $53,500 for the bulls to seize the initiative. “I think it will be like a V-turn. We will not have another chance to buy bitcoin below $50,000,” Weiss believes.

If, under negative circumstances, the decline still continues, it will certainly attract the interest of long-term holders. Every time a pullback occurs, investors begin to buy out the fall in anticipation of a new rise in price, and do not allow the crypto market to fall into an uncontrolled collapse.

So large bitcoin holders (from 100 to 10 thousand BTC) have already bought 67,000 coins last week. Of course, this is not a lot. Therefore, there is no need to talk about a return to the bullish trend yet. On the contrary, the advantage is still in the hands (or rather, in their paws) of the bears who are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000-48,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing the review (on the night of December 10 to December 11), the total capitalization of the crypto market is $2.215 trillion (minus 25% compared to the historical maximum of November 10). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Extreme Fear zone at 24 points. But the bitcoin dominance index dropped to 39.88%, yielding more and more "territory" to its main competitor, ethereum, whose market share reached 22%. (For comparison, 71.86% for BTC and 10.63% for ETH at the very beginning of the year).

The ETH/USD chart shows clearly that ethereum is recovering significantly better than bitcoin after falling on December 04. And if the BTC/USD pair has grown by a little more than 55% over the past five months, the increase in ETH/USD was more than 130%.

The main driver of its growth in recent months has been the burning of coins for transactions on the network and the fact that the rate of their burning outstrips the rate of their production. The ethereum network has already burned more than 1 million coins since the activation of the London hard fork.

Rahul Rai, the manager of the cryptocurrency fund BlockTower Capital, believes that the versatility of the ethereum blockchain will be the main factor that will attract both developers and investors. He is confident that if ethereum manages to restart the global financial system, its market will be much larger than that of bitcoin in the future. The crypto millionaire predicts that it may be as early as mid-2022. ETH will be the first cryptocurrency in terms of capitalization.

Analysts of the American investment bank JPMorgan made a similar statement in April. In their opinion, bitcoin is a consumer commodity. It can compete with precious metals and be seen as a store of value, but it will give way to ethereum in the long run, which is the pillar of the cryptocurrency economy.

Director of Bitwise Asset Management Matt Hougan predicted an "explosion of activity based on ethereum" in his forecast for 2022 as well.  “Investors will look at Ethereum, Solana or Polygon. They are beginning to understand that cryptocurrency is more than just bitcoin,” says Hougan.

***

We are witnessing an explosion in the activity of NordFX clients, who continue to accumulate lottery tickets, because the New Year's draw of its Super Lottery will take place very soon. And the more tickets, the more chances you have to win one or more prizes ranging from $500 to $20,000.

There is very little time left, but you can still make it. It is very easy to participate. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

(https://i.imgur.com/GbK5BMk.jpg)

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 15, 2021, 04:47:03 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/9lKjvxU.jpg)

- Miners have already mined 90% of the coins from the total bitcoin emission. The bitcoin network has reached the point at block No. 714000 where it remains to mine 2.1 million BTC, or 10% of the available emission volume. However, the total cryptocurrency supply will not be equal to 21 million coins, as provided by the algorithm. Chainalysis has calculated that 3.79 million BTC could be lost forever. In theory, these coins do exist, but they do not circulate.
Also, about 1 million BTC is stored at addresses that are associated with the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto. These bitcoins were mined early in the development of the network and have not moved since then. Nakamoto left his last public message 11 years ago.
Digital gold is expected to reach its emission limit around 2140 as regular halvings gradually lead to a zero-emission rate.

- According to the Bitstamp cryptocurrency exchange, the number of women investing in cryptocurrency increased by 198% in the first three quarters of 2021compared to the same period in 2020. The highest percentage of new investors are women between the ages of 30 and 35. It is curious that the most successful female investors and traders are the age group from 55 to 60 years old. They tend to invest larger amounts and earn higher returns.
The main reason for this influx is likely the proliferation of information about cryptocurrencies during the coronavirus pandemic. COVID-19 forced many countries to enter lockdowns, which made citizens stay at home for a long time. It is natural that when left without work, people were forced to look for new opportunities to generate income. In addition, fiat currencies are depreciating catastrophically in many countries.
However, despite the influx of women into what was previously considered predominantly male, gender balance will still take time. According to a report called Financial Tribes You Need to Know, 66% of investors in the cryptocurrency industry are still male.

- The new German government has included cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology in the list of the country's main development directions for the next four years. And now German savings banks have started working on a cryptocurrency wallet project. According to media reports, the plan provides for the possibility of buying and selling digital assets directly through accounts, and customers will not have to undergo additional verification procedures.
For reference: there are about 370 savings banks in Germany. Their aggregate database has about 50 million customers, and assets under management are estimated at €1.4 trillion.

- According to IntoTheBlock experts, if BTC does not hold above $48,000, the risks of its fall to $43,000 will increase, and it is only at this level that the coin will be able to find a local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

- Attackers hacked the personal Twitter of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. They wrote on his behalf about the recognition of the first cryptocurrency as a legal means of payment in the country. The publication also said that India bought 500 BTC and plans to distribute it to citizens. Attackers also attached a link to a fraudulent site allegedly for citizens to receive their share of coins. As of now, the fake tweet has been deleted.

- When the news feed is calm enough, traders begin to pay more attention to technical analysis. And now the legendary trader and techno analyst Peter Brandt warned investors that there is a dangerous double top pattern on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. However, according to a number of experts, this does not mean that the pattern will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.
The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.
According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of any bitcoin at $5,000 or even $15,000. You can simply forget about such prices for cryptocurrency. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000, but going below this mark is unlikely,” the expert predicted.

- Elon Musk was named TIME's Person of the Year. The publication noted the impact of the founder of Tesla and SpaceX on life on Earth and “possibly beyond”. "This is a man who seeks to save our planet and help us populate a new one: a jester, a genius, a provocateur, a seer, an industrialist, a showman, a boor, a crazy hybrid of Edison, Barnum, Andrew Carnegie and Dr. Manhattan from The Watchmen," - this is how TIME characterizes the richest person on the planet with a fortune of $265 billion.
When asked by a TIME reporter regarding cryptocurrencies, Musk replied that he is “not such a big opponent of fiat. But the cryptocurrency has advantages, since any government, whatever it may be, has a desire to issue." “I was instrumental in the creation of PayPal. And there are few who understand [the monetary system] better than I do,” multi-billionaire said. However, he doubted that digital assets can replace fiat. “Bitcoin can serve as a store of value, but it cannot be a good substitute for currencies for payments. In this regard, even Dogecoin created as a joke is better suited.”
Among other things, Musk said in the interview with TIME that he would not be held responsible for how the markets react to his tweets: “Markets are in motion all the time on their own for no reason. Is the reaction to my statements significantly different from the random wanderings that they already have? I do not think so. As you can see from my tweets, this is humor, which I find funny, but not everyone agrees. "

- The Weiss Crypto rating agency still adheres to an optimistic scenario despite the protracted correction of the flagship cryptocurrency. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.
The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.
The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.

- According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. “They have not bought a single drawdown since the beginning of October and have only been selling lately,” he explained.
However, following the results of the US Federal Reserve meeting this week, the BTC rate may complete the correction and move to growth on the triggering of the “sell on rumors, buy on the news” rule. A similar scenario emerges based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Traders started placing buy orders in the range of $44,500-$46,000, while at the time of writing, the first cryptocurrency is trading above $47,000.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 19, 2021, 12:22:53 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for December 20 - 24, 2021


EUR/USD: Old News from the Fed And the ECB

The past week was the week of the Central Banks. The US Federal Reserve met on Wednesday, December 15, for the last time this year, the ECB and the Bank of England on December 16, and the Bank of Japan at the end of the working week, on Friday, December 17.

There is a trading model, FIFO: short for “first in, first out”. So, we will follow it, and we will begin to consider the results of the meetings in order in which they took place.

The first, as already mentioned, was the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve. Some investors expected any radical decisions from it, and the rhetoric of representatives of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday was more hawkish than expected. This pushed the EUR/USD pair towards the lower limit of the three-week side channel. However, having reached the level of 1.1220, it turned around and the dollar began to lose ground.

The market realized that, in fact, almost all parameters of the monetary policy remained unchanged. Only the quantitative easing (QE) program was revised: the rate of reduction in asset purchases increased from $15 billion to $30 billion per month. The program can be completely closed in March-April 2022.

The outlook for the labor market was slightly improved but was accompanied by concerns about the possible emergence of "new virus variants". Core inflation in 2022 may also be slightly higher: not 2.3%, as previously expected, but 2.7%. Inflation for 2023 is projected to grow by only 0.1%, and it will remain unchanged in 2024.

According to the Financial Times, despite aggressive statements, the Fed still considers inflation a temporary phenomenon, and expects to return it to the target range within two years, gradually raising federal funds rates.

The key interest rate was left unchanged at 0.25% at the last meeting. As for the regulator's plans for next year, if it was about two or three rate hikes earlier, the Fed's dot chart showed that there should be three of them now. But this is just a declaration of intentions that can be realized if the macroeconomic situation develops as expected by the regulator.

In general, all statements of the American central bank were devoid of any specifics this time. Markets learned what they already knew before. Therefore, their reaction was appropriate: the EUR/USD pair turned around and went north. Having passed 140 points on Thursday, December 16, it was already at the upper border of the side channel, at the level of 1.1360.

(Of course, this was not without the help of the pound, which, thanks to the decision of the Bank of England, put a lot of pressure on the dollar. We will talk about this in more detail below).

The results of the meeting of the European Central Bank did not surprise investors either. Like the Fed, the European regulator also raised its inflation forecast for next year. And it also considers it a temporary phenomenon. It declares this openly though and does not consider it necessary to fight it now. It was announced Once again that the refinancing rate will remain at the current level until inflation reaches the target level of 2.0%, at which it will remain for a long time. As a result, the “main” result of the meeting was the statement of the head of the bank, Christine Lagarde, that “it is very unlikely that we will raise rates in 2022”. And this was already known to everyone.

The dovish position of the ECB did not allow the EUR/USD pair to rise above the borders of the side channel, and anxiety about the Omicron strain pushed it sharply down, and it ended week trading session at the level of 1.1238.

As for the coming week, it is pre-Christmas. And seven days after Christmas, it's New Year's Eve. In the absence of large players, the market these days is quite thin, liquidity is low, which can be fraught with all sorts of surprises. This is increased volatility, gaps with serious gaps in quotations, and what traders call the “Santa Claus Rally”. Although, of course, the opposite option is also possible: with "lazy" movement of pairs in a narrow range.

As for the experts, 50% expect further strengthening of the US currency and the fall of the EUR/USD pair, 30% are Currency carry trade on the growth of the euro. The remaining 20% have taken a neutral position.  Among the oscillators on D1, 80% point to the south (although 15% of them are in the oversold zone), 10% point north, and 10% point east. 100% of the trend indicators side with the bears.

Resistance levels are in the zones and at the levels 1.1265, 1.1300, 1.1355, 1.1380, 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is 1.1225, then 1.1185 and 1.1075-1.1100

The economic agenda of the year is practically exhausted, and no extra-important news is expected in the coming week. As for the reasons for breaking the trend or increased volatility, we can note the publication of annual data on US GDP on Wednesday December 22, and data on orders on capital goods and durable goods published by the U.S. Census Bureau the next day, December 23.

GBP/USD: The Bank of England's First Step

(https://i.imgur.com/iUXfvKo.jpg)

We noted in the previous review that the No.1 task for the GBP/USD bulls is to overcome the key resistance in the 1.3285-1.3300 zone. And we predicted that if the Bank of England did raise the interest rate on December 16, it would not be a problem. This is exactly what happened.

While the Fed and the ECB are only swinging, the Bank of England has moved to attack rising prices. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to the new Omicron coronavirus strain. However, according to the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, it is more important to curb the price pressure on the economy and society.

Of course, the rate hike by 15 basis points cannot be called significant, but, most importantly, the first step has already been taken, and the market expects the second rate hike in February.

It is difficult to say why many financial publications write that the current decision of the Bank of England came as a complete surprise. If you look at our previous forecast, 40% of experts predicted a rate hike and, as a result, the subsequent strengthening of the pound.

But the British currency failed to consolidate the victory. Having risen on Thursday December 16 to the high of 1.3373, the GBP/USD pair turned sharply and went down. Investors began to sell off the pound due to growing concerns about Omicron. Risk aversion contributed to the strengthening of the safer dollar and, accordingly, dealt a blow to the stock indices and quotes of the euro and the British pound, which ended the five-day period at 1.3235.

The experts' forecast for the coming week looks rather pre-holiday, that is, uncertain. 35% of them side with the bulls, the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 30% prefer not to take sides. Among the oscillators on D1, the situation is similar: 30% of them indicate buying, 45% are selling, and the remaining 25% advise to take a break and do nothing for now. The trend indicators have a fundamentally different mood: 100% are colored red.

The supports are located at 1.3210-1.3220, then 1.3170-1.3190, 1.3135, 1.3075. In case of a breakout of the latter, the pair may fall down to the horizon of 1.2960. Zones and resistance levels - 1.3285-1.3300, 1.3340, 1.3370, 1.3410, 1.3475, 1.3515, 1.3570, 1.3610, 1.3735, 1.3835.

There will also be little macro-statistics important for the pound next week. Of particular interest are the UK GDP data for the Q3, which will be released on Wednesday, December 22. But the markets will focus on the situation with the spread of the new COVID-19 wave.

USD/JPY: The Sideways Trend Continues

The one that is not afraid of risk aversion is the yen. On the contrary, it is only happy with this. Giving the previous forecast, the overwhelming majority of experts (80%) expected that with the help of the US Federal Reserve, the USD/JPY pair would go up and, perhaps, break the upper boundary of the 113.40-114.40 channel. This is exactly what happened: the dollar began to advance, and the pair was noted at the height of 114.25 on December 15. Then, due to the panic of investors, it managed to win back losses and found a local bottom, dropping to 113.13, and the final chord sounded in the center of the weekly trading range: at the level of 113.70.

It is difficult to predict what will happen with Omicron and how the situation will affect the panic in the markets. So far, the US currency is leading with a slight margin in the struggle between the yen and the dollar: 55% of analysts have voted for the growth of the USD/JPY pair, 45% for its fall.

The readings of technical indicators just confirm the sideways movement of the pair along the horizon 113.50 for almost 10 last weeks. Among the oscillators, 30% look south on D1, 35% remain neutral, and the remaining 35% look north. Among trend indicators, green has a slight advantage, 60% to 40%.

Support levels are 113.20, 112.70, 112.00, 111.60 and 111.20. Resistance levels are 114.00, 114.25, 115.00 and 115.50.

And now the promised information about the meeting of the Bank of Japan, which, it seems, is not at all interested in strengthening its currency. And although the regulator reduced the volume of emergency financing related to the pandemic on Friday, December 17, it, as expected, left the interest rate unchanged, at the previous negative level, minus 0.1%.

The bank retained its ultra-soft policies and measures to support small businesses, and its head Haruhiko Kuroda said at the press conference that a weak yen would rather support the Japanese economy than harm it. According to the official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits. So we can confidently say that the monetary policy of this regulator will remain one of the most dovish in the foreseeable future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Everything Is Complicated: It will be Either Winter, Or Spring Straight Away

Things are ambiguous in the crypto market. The total capitalization has remained almost unchanged over the past 7 days and amounts to $2.270 trillion ($2.215 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index made only a small step up from 24 points and shifted from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone, up to 29 points.

In this situation, some experts hope for the recovery of the upward trend of major coins, while others, on the contrary, predict a further fall. And then the end of 2017 comes to mind. Then, having conquered the $19,270 high in December, bitcoin collapsed instead of breaking above the iconic $20,000. It was already at $5,900 at the beginning of February 2018, losing 70% of its value and plunging investors and crypto enthusiasts into a state of deepest depression. And then long months of expectations and hopes followed, dubbed "crypto winter". The first hints of warming appeared only in March 2019, and the real crypto spring came a year later, in March 2020.

It isprecisely the possible onset of a new "ice age" that pessimists are talking about. We have already quoted renowned investor and economist Louis Navellier. According to him, a large bubble has been inflated in the stock market, which could lead to a strong correction of risky assets, as a result of which bitcoin could fall to $10,000. Navellier, as well as another specialist, legendary trader and techno-analyst Peter Brandt, warned investors that a dangerous “double top” pattern is observed on the chart of the first cryptocurrency. “A fall below $46,000 (200-day moving average) will be a bearish signal,” he writes. “Bitcoin must fall to $28,500 to complete the double top figure, and such a decline may indicate a fall below $10,000.”

According to Nikita Soshnikov, director of Alfacash crypto service, the market will face a long period of depressed sentiment if the double top pattern is confirmed. However, “there is no question of bitcoin for $5,000 or even $15,000,” the expert reassures. “You can simply forget about such cryptocurrency prices. But it may well fall below $40,000 and stay at this level for several weeks. I even admit a decline in the rate to $35,000 but going below this mark is unlikely”.

According to Michael van de Poppe, creator of the Material Indicators analytical resource, bearish sentiment still prevails among whales. "They haven't bought a single drawdown since early October," he says, "and have only been selling lately." And if you look at the chart of the past two weeks, you can clearly see how the bears are trying to push the BTC/USD pair below the $46,000 zone, where the 200-day moving average passes.

At the time of writing, the struggle continues. It seems that the initiative returned to the bears at the end of the working week. The markets were hit by another wave of panic caused by the Omicron coronavirus strain, and the sale of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, began. The pair dipped to $45,525 late on Friday, December 17 but then rallied back to $46,500. According to IntoTheBlock specialists, BTC has a lot of chances to fall to the $43,000 zone in such a situation. It is only at this level that the coin will be able to find the local bottom. About 344,000 wallets purchased 395,000 coins at prices in the area of this support. It is these investors who must prevent further pullback so as not to go into the red.

A slightly different support zone is emerging based on the analysis of the order book of the Bitfinex exchange. Its data indicate that a significant amount of orders to buy bitcoin was placed in the range of $44,500-$46,000.

Christmas and New Year are still kind and happy holidays. Therefore, on their eve, we would like to complete the forecast on a more or less positive note. The appearance of a “double top” pattern on the chart, according to a number of experts, does not at all mean that it will eventually be fully formed and that the market will go into a deeper correction.

The analytical department of Bestchange believes that despite the high risks of continuing the local fall, the main cryptocurrency is able to go up powerfully in the medium term. “The situation is extremely ambiguous today, but mid-term forecasts until mid-2022 are still positive. Bitcoin needs to lose at least half of its capitalization and securely gain a foothold at levels below $28,000-30,000 in order to abandon most positive scenarios. Until this happens, the hope for $100,000 continues to be relevant,” Bestchange believes.

Weiss Crypto rating agency also points to this magic figure. Despite the protracted correction, it still adheres to the optimistic scenario. Agency analysts support the forecast of colleagues from Bloomberg, who previously announced a high probability of a coin breakthrough to $100,000 in 2022.

The chances of reaching this psychological mark exceed the risks of a further fall, according to the Weiss Crypto review. Against the backdrop of the confrontation with China, the United States will accelerate the legalization of the crypto sphere, which will positively affect the value of digital currencies.

The authors of the study emphasize that cryptocurrency will be the main beneficiary of the fall of the stock market in the context of tightening the monetary policy by the Fed. Investors can abandon stocks in favor of digital currency as a hedging tool. In addition, the decline in the yield on US Treasury bonds may also have a positive effect on the quotes of BTC and ETH.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 22, 2021, 05:46:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/vCpphTh.jpg)

- After the mining ban in China, local bitcoin miners still generate up to 20% of the total hashrate of the cryptocurrency network, CNBC reports with reference to experts.
One of the miners, who identified himself as Ben, told the TV channel how local industry players work illegally. He has been mining since 2015 and has 6,000 devices. After the repressions started, Ben distributed equipment across multiple sites so as not to show too high power consumption. Ben installed 1000 units throughout the country, wherever he could get the capacity. And 5,000 miners are connected directly to two small hydroelectric power plants in Sichuan province.
He explained that mining is being monitored for suspicious traffic by one of the largest telecommunications companies, China Telecom, which transmits information to the government.
 
- Regulatory clarity and an influx of institutional capital are needed to continue the growth of the cryptocurrency market, and 2022 "promises to be interesting for the industry." This opinion was expressed by one of the partners of the investment company The Spartan Group known as SpartanBlack.
“Investors have asked me repeatedly in the past few weeks when the crypto winter is coming,” he writes. "The last three crypto winters have traumatized the collective psyche of investors so much that everyone has become cautious after the powerful year 2021." According to the observations of the financier, many cryptocurrency holders took profits after each strong upward price movement. Therefore, there was no FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) and no parabolic movement of quotes, as in the previous three phases of the bull market.
The expert expressed the opinion that a powerful catalyst is needed for a parabolic price movement: for example, the introduction of crypto-friendly rules by American regulators. This will open up access to digital currencies for large financial institutions.
 
- Investor interest in existing crypto projects will continue in 2022, and exchange operators and data providers will benefit the most. This forecast was given by Larry Cermak, an analyst and vice president of The Block.
In his opinion, the market will continue to grow, but it will become more thoughtful. And the focus will be on Layer 2 protocols enabling faster and cheaper transactions on top of blockchains. The key to this will be the existence of decentralized applications.
 
- Co-founder and CEO of Kraken exchange Jesse Powell had previously predicted bitcoin would rise above $100,000 by the end of the year. Now he does not exclude a further decline in the cryptocurrency market. Powell said in a conversation with Bloomberg that he believes the onset of a new crypto winter is possible and that the bitcoin market has historically been characterized by cyclical behaviour, with halving as its starting point.
That being said, Powell believes that if bitcoin falls below $40,000, investors will seize the opportunity to buy. “I think a lot of people see values below $40,000 as a buying opportunity. Personally, I was buying when the market approached $30,000 a few months ago. I think many are just waiting for a reliable minimum," the Kraken CEO said.
 
- Founder of the investment company Bridgewater Associates, billionaire Ray Dalio, called traditional currencies a problem asset in a comment to Yahoo Finance. “Most investors consider fiat money to be the safest investment. And I think this is the worst investment,” he said. According to Dalio, you should not judge the profitability of your assets in nominal terms, but you need to make an adjustment for inflation. So, investors lost 4-5% due to the inflation of the US dollar in 2021.
Dalio also admitted that he invested in ethereum, but did not give an exact figure, he only said that he holds part of the portfolio in cryptocurrencies in order to diversify. “I see them as alternative money. It is impressive that digital currencies have lasted 10-11 years: they have not been hacked and they have a level of acceptance. "
 
- An American private National Bureau of Economic Research published a study that claims that 10,000 accounts, or 0.01% of all bitcoin holders, own 5 million BTC, or 27% of all coins in circulation (18.9 million). This suggests that bitcoin is not as decentralized as people think. “Despite 14 years of existence and the buzz it has made, it is still a very concentrated ecosystem,” said Professor Antoinette Shoar of the MIT Sloan School of Management.
According to the founder of Quantum Economics, Mati Greenspan, a significant part of the BTC turnover is still controlled by the anonymous creator of bitcoin Satoshi Nakamoto. “Satoshi's own coins alone account for more than 5%,” Greenspan told Cointelegraph.
 
- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett spoke about the possible exit of bitcoin from the correction phase and the return of the bullish trend. After retesting the Dec 4 lows close to $40,000, he said, bitcoin could form a double bottom structure and then rally to above $60,000.
Bennett continues to give bitcoin a bullish outlook, even if it plunges below the important psychological level of $40,000. “I’m not against BTC falling below $40,000,” he says, “although many believe that in this case, we may face a bearish market. Yes, we will lose support for the December 4 low, but everyone wants to see higher highs. Even if the retesting of the $35,000 level happens, you need to understand that you could already see a similar situation at the beginning of 2021."

- Cryptanalyst and trader Benjamin Cowen told his 663,000 YouTube subscribers what he thinks ethereum will have in 2022. To do this, he looked at the consolidation phases in 2016 and 2017, which preceded massive upward breakouts. Cowen noted that the leading altcoin is likely to have a combination of the two phases in the near future.
The analyst believes that the ethereum consolidation could last until mid-2022, but the likely end result will be a breakout. “I believe ethereum will hit record highs in 2022 and may continue to grow in 2023, but it’s hard to count on at the moment,” he says. “I imagine the sideways movement will continue for a while, especially with bitcoin looking somewhat weak at the moment,” continues Cowen. “I don’t know how high ETH can go up afterwards. I think $10,000 is a reasonable goal, we could even reach $20,000. "
 
- Michael van de Poppe, trader at the Amsterdam Stock Exchange, has released another review in which he talks about what will happen in the cryptocurrency market in the coming months and years.
The analyst believes that bitcoin will still bottom in the $40,000 area in the winter, after which it will go up again. From Van de Poppe's point of view, the main sign that the bullish cycle has not yet reached its top is the fact that we have not yet seen a phase of euphoria in the market, and we are not currently seeing massive selling from long-term coin holders. This means that we are in the middle of a bullish cycle.
“I think bitcoin will copy the rally that was seen in 2020 and 2021,” said the famous trader. According to this scenario, the vertical take-off of 2020 and 2021 will repeat in the Q1-2 of 2022, ending at around $530,000. After that, there will be a long bearish market until a new bullish phase in 2024. This bearish market may coincide with the global economic crisis.
But there is another scenario as well. It suggests that bitcoin remains “relatively calm” with ethereum as the key trigger. In this case, periods of bitcoin growth will be interrupted by periods of consolidation. The growth of the main cryptocurrency will not be as pronounced as in the first case, and it will reach "only" the height of $100,000-120,000 in 2022.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 26, 2021, 05:04:49 PM
Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and the Dollar in 2022


It is always interesting to know whose predictions came true and whose predictions did not. Exactly a year ago, we published forecasts given by experts from leading world banks regarding the EUR/USD rate for 2021, and now we can decide which of them was right and to what extent. Or, on the contrary, which one was wrong.

(https://i.imgur.com/HZBU2ix.jpg)


Last Year's Forecast: They Were Wrong after All

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall. Colleagues from Citigroup were supported then by analysts at the Swiss bank Lombard Odier, as well as one of the world's largest investment companies, BlackRock.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. Since the last decade of March, the dollar began to lose ground, and the EUR/USD pair crawled up. Starting on March 22, 2020, from 1.0630, it met the new 2021 at 1.2300.

The Fed was in full swing implementing its monetary stimulus program on the eve of 2021, and the printing press was working at full capacity, filling the American market with new, unsecured dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate.

Based on this and looking back at the dynamics of the dollar over the last three quarters of 2020, experts were making their forecasts for the coming months. Most of them were inclined to believe that money would actively flow to Europe in 2021, and the dollar would face a deep devaluation. True, different analysts assessed the depth of a possible fall in the USD differently.

 For example, one of the largest investment banks, Goldman Sachs, predicted a drop in the weighted USD rate by only 6%, and Morgan Stanley expected the EUR/USD pair to rise to 1.2500. (By the way, the figure of 1.2500 was also sounded in many other moderate forecasts).

But there were also those who predicted a catastrophic fall in the American currency. Prominent economists, Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff and former Morgan Stanley Asia head and Fed Board member Stephen Roach estimated the likelihood of a dollar collapse in 2021 at 50%. At the same time, Roach believed that the devaluation of the dollar could reach 35%. A slightly smaller but also impressive devaluation of 20% was forecast by analysts at Citigroup. That is, in their opinion, now that you are reading this review, the EUR/USD pair should have been in the 1.4000-1.4400 zone.

The pair did start to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted ... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before the onset of summer, the country's economy was recovering, and confidence in the imminent tightening of the FRS monetary policy began to grow among investors. And this means a reduction in asset repurchases and an increase in the interest rate on federal funds in the long term. Investors began to recall the "bread" times of the summer of 2019, when the rate was equal to 2.25%, and not the current "beggarly" 0.25%.

The American currency went into steady growth (minor corrections do not count) after that, and is now completing 2021in the 1.1200-1.1300 zone. That is, it is very far from 1.2500, as had been predicted by respected experts. It's not even worth talking about 1.4000-1.4400.

 
What Experts Expect in the New Year

If the forecasts for the dollar for the past 2021 were more like obituaries, the prospects for the USD in the eyes of some experts look much more optimistic now. And all due to the fact that the US Federal Reserve, unlike the central banks of many other G20 countries, has actively embarked on curtailing its QE program, the US economy, including the labor market, is recovering well, GDP growth is projected at 5%, and now, according to the Federal Reserve, it is time to curb inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 is now almost beyond doubt.

 In this situation, according to experts of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), the dovish position of the Central Banks of the EU, Japan and Switzerland, more tolerant of price increases, will cause their national currencies to fall significantly behind the dollar in 2022. ING strategists believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of next year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.

 Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast says, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike. These two forces are likely to remain decisive and should support the gradual appreciation of the dollar in 2022.” HSBC analysts also believe that the trend of the EUR/USD pair will be downward, as the ECB does not plan to raise the key rate until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also side with the US dollar, marking the following route for the EUR/USD pair for the coming year: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200. That is, in this case, we can already talk about a sideways trend.

 It should be noted that not all the authorities in the financial world are Currency carry trade on the strength of the dollar. Many analysts have taken the opposite position and, on the contrary, expect a weakening of the US currency “In 2022, - writes FXStreet, - the Federal Reserve System may return to dovish positions that will put pressure on the dollar.”

 Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overestimated. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.   

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal of 1.1800. Although, in this case, this can be considered a success for the US currency. The fact is that an earlier forecast of this investment bank pointed to a much higher mark of 1.2500.

Amundi believes that the Fed “has little to do to surprise market expectations” and, although a moderate normalization of monetary policy “will remain generally positive for the dollar” by the end of the year, the pair will reach 1.1400.

The most unexpected forecast was given by the strategists of the Wells Fargo investment institute. They just named a wide range from 1.1000 to 1.1800. And it is quite possible that this prediction will prove to be the most correct one.

 There is such a proverb, “Man believes, and Life has”. Its meaning is that human plans, even the most thoughtful ones, are imperfect and changeable. Life, however, puts everything in its place over time. So we will only be able to understand at the end of next year who of the influencers was right. In the meantime, on the eve of the new year, we wish you success in your work, financial well-being, good health and excellent mood. Happy New Year!

***

In the next review, in a week, we will tell you what experts think about the future of the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the British pound (GBP/USD), the Canadian (USD/CAD) and the Australian (AUD/ USD) dollars, Swedish kronor (USD/SEK), Swiss franc (USD/CHF) and Chinese yuan (USD/CNH).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 29, 2021, 03:38:31 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/1XqYv16.jpg)

- Elon Musk is Satoshi Nakamoto. Such a sensational statement was made by a SpaceX and Tesla ex-software developper Sahil Gupta. He revealed details that, in his opinion, prove that Musk is the creator of bitcoin, since he had the necessary resources, knowledge and motivation to do so.
In addition, Sahil Gupta claims that he had once directly asked the billionaire representative Sam Teller if Musk was the creator of bitcoin, he was silent for about 15 seconds, and then said: "Well, what can I say...".

- Philip Hammond, former British Chancellor of the Exchequer, who also served as Foreign Secretary, Secretary of Defense and Minister of Transport, called on retail investors to be “extremely cautious” when investing in cryptocurrencies.
“If a member of my family asked me [whether to invest in cryptocurrency], I would draw their attention to the fact that large and reputable asset managers are now more likely to test the waters [...] It is almost certainly not suitable for retail investors as the main investment grade ", - said Baron Hammond. In his opinion, buying a cryptocurrency is more of a gamble than a serious investment.

- Unlike Baron Hammond, Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, called on subscribers to actively buy the first cryptocurrency in his New Year's address.
“Stay away from fiat money. The dollar, the euro, the yen, the peso are all the same. It is fake money made of paper and lies. Central banks print more money than ever. Invest in bitcoin,” he said. The billionaire reported that he invested 10% of his liquid portfolio in bitcoin back in November 2020.

“The cryptocurrency market will grow to tens of trillions of dollars,” said Jihan Wu, co-founder of Bitmain and head of Matrixport and Bitdeer, in an interview with Forbes. In his opinion, "even if 95% of existing coins are depreciated or disappear, the growth rate of the remaining 5% will be enormous."
“Innovations like DeFi are breathtaking. Cryptocurrencies and blockchain have created a new world, enabling fintech entrepreneurs to achieve great success. Traditional financial institutions and regulators will also adopt blockchain technology over time,” the billionaire believes.

- The frequency of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter increased by 350% in 2021 compared to 2020. 101 million tweets with the word “bitcoin” were published in just 12 months, according to data from the analytical company Visibrain.
The number of mentions of bitcoin on Twitter jumped sharply against the backdrop of various events. So, there was a surge in the popularity of the asset in February against the background of the flash mob "laser eyes", the participants of which put photos with laser eyes on their Twitter avatars and promised not to change them until bitcoin rose in price to $100,000. An increase in mentions also occurred when Tesla suspended the sale of its cars for bitcoins, and El Salvador recognized the cryptocurrency as an official means of payment.

- Joseph Tsai, Vice Chairman of the Chinese Internet Company Alibaba, announced his commitment to cryptocurrencies. He tweeted a simple and short phrase, "I like cryptocurrencies," to which a lot of users responded. Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao did not ignore Tsai's tweet either and replied, "I like Joe."
Recall that the Chinese authorities are taking serious measures against the cryptocurrency industry. And this was the reason that, despite the loyalty of its vice president, the e-commerce giant has already begun to implement an anti-cryptocurrency policy. Alibaba announced last autumn that it will be forbidden to sell mining equipment on the platform. The company has also pledged to stop selling books and tutorials related to the digital asset industry.

- A well-known trader and analyst Tone Weiss predicts a powerful surge of bitcoin. He believes that the current market situation does not reflect the potential of the first cryptocurrency, and the current situation is just a “speed bump in the bull market”. The specialist recalled that similar phenomena have already happened in the past, and each time bitcoin, having overcome the section that slowed it down, picked up speed again. At the same time, Weiss noted that he does not know exactly to what minimum BTC may fall before its value begins to increase.
The trader also noted that bitcoin is currently trading within a large ascending triangle on the monthly chart. This is a bullish pattern suggesting a continuation of the uptrend. The analyst believes that the asset's overcoming the $60,000 level will open the way for a large-scale rally to $100,000 and above.

- Analyst PlanB also believes that the digital asset is bound to grow. This is indicated by the signals of his S2F forecasting model. PlanB has previously claimed that the main cryptocurrency will be able to break through the $100,000 level before the end of this year. Despite the fact that his forecast did not come true, the analyst continues to believe the S2F signals.

- Lukas Lagoudis, CEO of ARK36 cryptocurrency hedge fund, believes in maintaining the upward trend in the crypto market next year. According to him, the value of coins will increase due to the inflow of capital from institutional investors and the integration of digital assets into traditional financial systems. Lagoudis suggests that the popularity of virtual currencies should increase due to rising inflation and declining bond yields.

- Documentaries that talk about bitcoin and the cryptocurrency industry appear on the film market from time to time. Some of them have earned rave reviews from critics and users interested in the industry.
The first place in the TOP-3 is taken by the documentary "This Machine Greens", which tells about the mining process. "Man B" is in the second place, in which the authors examine the attitude of the citizens of Germany and Austria towards bitcoin. The third line is taken by the documentary film "Hard Money". This short film explains why bitcoin is so important for the entire planet. It can also be used to find out why gold was chosen as the main asset for civilization at one time, and what its drawbacks are.

- The US Congress approved an increase in the national debt limit by another $2.5 trillion. According to experts, this decision will once again postpone the threat of federal default until at least the beginning of 2023, accelerate inflation in the United States and lead to an increase in investment in gold and bitcoin.
Max Keiser, a well-known crypto investor and founder of Heisenberg Capital, said the bill created “ideal conditions for bitcoin to grow as the US government capitulated to hyperinflation”. “I don’t want to see America collapse, but I don’t have that many dollars, so I don’t care,” Kaiser announced.
Gemini co-founder Tyler Winklevoss (Tyler Winklevoss) wrote on Twitter that the approval by the US Senate of the debt ceiling “will actually work as advertising for bitcoin at $2.5 trillion.” Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, shares a similar view. “It looks like bitcoin is enjoying government support,” he writes.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 02, 2022, 10:45:12 AM
Leading Banks Forecast for 2022: JPY, GBP, CAD, AUD, CHF, SEK, CNH


(https://i.imgur.com/zdbAqTE.jpg)

We talked a week ago about what experts from the world's leading banks and agencies think about the behavior of the EUR/USD pair in the coming 2022. And the fact that we paid attention to it in the first place is quite logical: after all, this pair is the most traded on the Forex market, and the European currency itself leads by a huge margin in the formation of the US Dollar Index DXY, with 57.6%.

Recall that DXY was developed by the US Federal Reserve in 1973 and shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of 6 major world currencies. This basket includes euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%).

In our opinion, the economic situation in the world has changed quite a lot over the past almost half a century since the inception of DXY. And at least the Chinese yuan should have appeared in the basket. Therefore, below we will look at the prospects for both the currency pairs that form the dollar index: USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/SEK, USD/CHF, and some other, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, EUR/GBP and USD/CNH.


USD/JPY: Japan Needs a Weak Yen

It is known that inflation, along with the recovery of the labor market, is one of the two main factors that central banks focus on in their monetary policy.

The positive GDP gap is also called the inflation gap, because it indicates that the growth of aggregate demand outstrips the growth of aggregate supply and accelerates inflation. This, according to the IMF, will be observed in the United States (+ 3.3%) and Canada (+ 0.8%) in 2022. And regulators will have to take active steps to tighten their monetary policy in order to contain inflation. And this, according to experts from the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), will give the currencies of these countries, primarily the USD, an advantage over the currencies of those countries where GDP has negative gap. It is also called recessionary, since the excess of supply over demand is the path to deflation.

The recession gap has been observed since 2008 in Japan and is likely to repeat in 2022. That is why the policy of the Bank of Japan is one of the most dovish among the central banks of other countries, and the interest rate on the yen has been held at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%.

The head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits.

ING Group believes that such a differentiation between the approaches of the US Federal Reserve and the Japanese regulator will strengthen the dollar's position against the yen. Their quarterly forecast for USD/JPY for this year is as follows: Q1 - 114.00, Q2 - 115.00, Q3 - 118.00 and Q4 - 120.00.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale estimates the probability that the pair will rise to 116.00 in the Q2 at 50%, and up to 118.00 - 25%. Experts bet the remaining 25% on a bearish scenario and the fall of the pair to 110.00.

Analysts from other leading global banks also prefer the dollar. However, unlike their colleagues from ING, a number of forecasts has the peak not at the end, but in the middle of the year. Barclays Bank's forecast looks like this: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 116.00 and Q4 - 115.00. The CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) forecast paints a similar picture: Q1 - 115.00, Q2 - 116.00, Q3 - 115.00, Q4 - 114.00.

Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published the opinion of their experts regarding the values of the USD/JPY pair in the second half - late 2022. For the most part, forecasts point to a strengthening dollar: JP Morgan Q3 - 114.00, Amundi Q4 - 116.00, Morgan Stanley Q4 - 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 in 2023.

 
GBP/USD: At the Crossroads of Three Roads

Regarding the future of the British currency, British investment Barclays Bank has taken a very patriotic stance. His strategists consider the pound to be highly undervalued and predict that the GBP/USD pair will return to the 2021 highs and rise to 1.4200 by the end of the year.

Unlike most investment banks, Barclays believes that the policy of the US Federal Reserve does not provide strong support for the US currency at all, and this will lead to its moderate depreciation. The Bank expects other central banks to take a more aggressive stance than the Fed, with higher interest rates, thereby limiting the attractiveness of the dollar. First of all, of course, we are talking here about the Bank of England.

As for the short-term outlook for the pound, Barclays’ analysts are more cautious here, as the impact of high inflation will neutralize the potential support from a slight increase in interest rates. In addition, concerns about the new wave of COVID-19 and the difficulties with the EU due to Brexit need to be considered. As a result, Barclays' quarterly forecast is as follows: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000 and Q4 - 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, took the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors may lead to the fact that the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the rate to only 0.5% in the coming months instead of 1.0%, and thus disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move in a sideways trend: Q1-1.3300, Q2-1.3400, Q3-1.3400 and Q4-1.3400.


Other Currency Pairs

- If Barclays Bank believes in its national currency, CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists are quite pessimistic about the future. In their opinion, the Canadian dollar may become weaker this year. “Markets overestimated the possible actions of the Bank of Canada in 2022,” says CIBC, “and underestimated the Fed in 2022. Recalibration will leave CAD out of favor with investors.” The bank's forecast for the USD/CAD pair is as follows: Q1-1.2800, Q2-1.2900, Q3-1.3000 and Q4-1.3000.

- Experts at HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) believe that some currencies will still be able to hold their ground against the stronger US dollar, including the Australian dollar. HSBC believes that the Reserve Bank of Australia may take a more hawkish position, given the rather strong macroeconomic data.

- ING strategists do not exclude that the Australian dollar may benefit from undervaluation and being oversold either. However, taking long positions on the AUD/USD pair, in their opinion, still carries a high risk.

-In addition, according to ING experts, together with the euro (EUR/USD) and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), the Swiss franc will also lag significantly behind the dollar (USD/CHF) in 2022 as well as Swedish Krona (USD/SEK).

- Barclays Bank's forecast for other currency pairs included in the palette of trading instruments of the brokerage company NordFX is as follows: EUR/GBP : Q1 - 0.87, Q2 - 0.86, Q3 - 0.85, Q4 - 0.84 | USD/CHF : Q1 - 0.91, Q2 - 0.90, Q3 - 0.90, Q4 - 0.90 | AUD/USD : Q1 - 0.75, Q2 - 0.76, Q3 - 0.77, Q4 - 0.78 | NZD/USD : Q1 - 0.73, Q2 - 0.73, Q3 - 0.73, Q4 - 0.73 | USD/CAD : Q1 - 1.23, Q2 - 1.22, Q3 - 1.21, Q4 - 1.21 | USD/CNH : Q1 - 6.35, Q2 - 6.30, Q3 - 6.40, Q4 - 6.50.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 03, 2022, 04:35:46 PM
December 2021: XAU/USD, GBP/USD and BTC/USD Are Among the Favorites

(https://i.imgur.com/StgmiiX.jpg)

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the last month of 2021. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Among traders, the best result of the month was shown by the holder of account No. 1045XXX from China, whose profit amounted to 33,105 USD and was received due to bitcoin transactions (BTC/USD). It is worth noting that the flagship cryptocurrency either fell or was in a flat for most of December, so it seems that it took a lot of effort to get such a significant profit.

The second place in the top three most productive NordFX clients belongs to a trader from India (account No. 1583XXX), who earned 25,413 USD on gold transactions (XAU/USD) and British Pound (GBP/USD).

And finally, the third step of the podium is taken by another representative of China (account No. 1549XXX) with a profit of 22,256 USD, who traded the major forex pair, EUR/USD.

The NordFX passive investment services:

- while analyzing the CopyTrading showcase during 2021, we paid maximum attention to long-lived signals. And now we have decided to change “traditions” and pay attention to “startups”. These signals have appeared quite recently, which is why they can be classified as risky. However, the current profit/drawdown ratio makes them quite interesting: if not for short-term investments, then at least for careful monitoring. Since there are many such signals, we will form not TOP-3, but TOP-5 of them.

AURISTELA - the signal has existed since October 25, 2021. It brought a profit of 93.23% during these 65 days (in December - 39.53%) with a maximum drawdown of just over 35%. Almost all (99%) transactions have been made with gold (XAU/USD).

The next signal is called Hada. It started on November 20, 2021, a little more than a month ago. The total yield for this period was 27.74%, for December it was 14.72%, the drawdown was only 4.39%, the traded pairs were USD/JPY, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, EUR/USD.

Number 3 on the list is the Darto Capital signal, it is only 10 days old, while the capital gain due to transactions on the GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, XAU/USD pairs amounted to 32.79% with a drawdown of 4.80%.

And the TOP-5 startups are closed by two signals, which, judging by the life expectancy, set of tools and volume of transactions, belong to the same author. These signals are Sriniwas (lifetime 45 days, profitability during this time 23.22%, for December - 14.38%, drawdown 8.38%) and Rekha Dubey (lifetime - the same 45 days, profitability during this time 30.05%, for December - 21.16% , drawdown 8.80%). The traded pairs are XAU/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, EUR/USD, BTC/USD, US500. Gold is the leader in both cases (more than 70% of the total trading volume), which is not uncommon. But the transactions with the stock index Standard & Poor's 500 (US500) can be seen as exotic. However, this tool took a little more than 4% in the basket of this trader.

- As for the PAMM service, we have repeatedly noted the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. This manager increased their capital by 65% on their KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account in 11 months, with a fairly moderate drawdown - less than 16%. The arsenal of their trading instruments is quite diverse and includes such not very popular pairs as, for example, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

The account TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 also attracts attention among the PAMM accounts. It has existed for 272 days and has brought a profit of 45% with a drawdown of 16% during this time. The set of traded currency pairs on this account is similar to that of KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA, which suggests that the same trader is managing both accounts.

NKFX - Ninja 136 is very similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is 172 days, the gain is 34%, the maximum drawdown is about 15%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:

- the largest commission, 5,236 USD, was credited in December to a partner from Vietnam, account No.1371ХXХ;
- the next is a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx, who received 4,578 USD for the month;
- and, finally, a partner from India, account No.11570ХХХ, who received 2,904 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 03, 2022, 05:09:26 PM
NordFX Super Lottery 2021 Final Draw: Another $60,000 Drawn

(https://i.imgur.com/XrnBT34.jpg)

The third and final draw of the Super Lottery by the brokerage company NordFX took place on January 3. The lottery was launched nine months ago, in April 2021, and anyone could participate in it, it was enough to fulfill just a few simple conditions.

Interim draws were held every three months. Like the final one, they were held online, and all interested persons could follow them on the Internet. The videos of all the draws runs are available now on the company's official YouTube channel.

The final draw took place immediately after the New Year holidays, on January 03, 2022. And it drew a substantial amount of $60,000 divided by 30 prizes of $500, 10 of $1,000, 6 of $2,500 and 1 super prize of $20,000.

The winners are the holders of the following lottery tickets:

(https://i.imgur.com/Wcszcvg.png)

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

Summing up the results of our super lottery, we would like to wish all its participants and all NordFX clients a Happy New Year. May luck always be with you in 2022. We wish happiness, health and prosperity to you and your loved ones!


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 05, 2022, 03:15:07 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/9xFnF0m.jpg)

- It was 13 years ago, on January 3, 2009, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Its hash contains the title of the article "Chancellor on Brink of Second Bailout for Banks" by the British edition of The Times. The launch of the network was preceded by the publication of the bitcoin white paper on October 31, 2008. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney.
It is possible that one of the incentives for the bitcoin creation was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008, accompanied by the collapse of the largest investment banks, a widespread decline in production, falling demand and prices for raw materials, rising unemployment and active government intervention in the economy.

- According to the CoinatMrRadar analytical service, against the backdrop of growing demand for cryptocurrencies, about 20,000 new bitcoin ATMs appeared in the world in 2021. Their number has grown by about 2.4 times over the year and is very close to 34,000. The vast majority of these are still in the United States. Genesis Coin is the leader among ATM manufacturers, having installed 13,996 ATMs. It is followed by General Bytes with 7,514. The top three is closed by BitAccess with 4,875 ATMs.

- MicroStrategy increased investments in bitcoin by $94 million. The company's CEO Michael Saylor announced the purchase of 1.9 thousand BTC at an average price of $49,200 per coin. The software developer currently owns 124,391 BTC, which is valued at $6.1 billion. In total, the company spent about $3.7 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrency, so the average price of 1 BTC in its ownership is $30,100.
The head of MicroStrategy is a strong proponent of digital assets and believes bitcoin will become the 21st century's premier store of value. As for China's anti-cryptocurrency measures, Michael Saylor called them a “trillion-dollar mistake”.

- The head of the investment company Ava Labs, John Wu, expressed the opinion in an interview with CNBC that the capitalization of the crypto market will exceed $5 trillion in 2022. According to Wu's forecast, digital assets have the potential to double their market value in the coming year. (The capitalization is $2.25 trillion at the time of writing this review).
According to the head of Ava Labs, cryptocurrencies will be the only asset class that can withstand both the actions of the Fed and the record increase in inflation, which reached its maximum values in the US in almost 40 years in early December 2021. Wu also claims that the share of bitcoin will fall below 30% with the growth of the crypto market, although the price may exceed $75,000 per coin.

- According to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen, bitcoin has already bottomed out, although many traders believe the bearish trend will continue. According to Cowen, it can be more revealing sometimes to value bitcoin not in the BTC/USD pair, but in comparison with other assets. As an example, the expert suggests looking at BTC paired with the S&P500 index. Bitcoin has already reached critical support here, Cowen believes. “If you look at bitcoin in the mirror of the stock market, it is testing levels that were tested back in September.”
However, the analyst does not rule out that the main cryptocurrency may return to the level of $40,000 or $42,000. “Anything is possible in the case of investment,” he writes. “All models can be wrong, although some can be useful.”

- Another fraudulent account of Vitalik Buterin has been found on Instagram. According to users, the owner of this account is “pulling followers into classic cryptocurrency fraud schemes.” He encourages subscribers to send him direct messages which contain passphrases for crypto wallets, or persuades them to send him cryptocurrency, promising to return three times as much.
It turns out that the real Vitalik Buterin does not have an official Instagram account, which is what the scammer decided to take advantage of, gaining 643,000 subscribers. The fake account was registered in Israel more than two years ago. However, it is not the only one. If you search Instagram for the name of the Ethereum creator, you will see more than a dozen accounts, many of which are called “Vitalik Biterin_official”.

- Notorious entrepreneur, co-founder of Block.One, former actor and former US presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that bitcoin can reach $200,000 this year. Governments are printing excessive amounts of money, thereby fueling inflation, and this will be the main reason for BTC to take off. “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin trades for $100,000. It is quite possible that it can jump over $200,000 for a moment,” Pierce said optimistically.

- Anthony Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, a major cryptocurrency lender (over $ 6 billion), exudes optimism like Brock Pierce. “I think bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, perhaps by the middle of this year,” Trenchev said.

- Economist Alex Kruger expects the main cryptocurrency to grow in early January, but then bears may enter the scene and the reason for this is the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve. “If the report on inflation on January 12 shows an excess of its level,” the specialist explains, “then investors should expect an exit from risky assets on the eve of the FRS meeting on January 26.”

- American billionaire and founder of Bridgewater Associates Ray Dalio said he is impressed by the fact that bitcoin has managed to stand the test of time and agreed with his fellow billionaire Bill Miller is that one should allocate 1-2% of one's net profit for this cryptocurrency. He talks about this in his new book, which is a macroeconomic explanation of why bitcoin will become a $10 trillion asset.
Many members of the crypto community have perceived this billionaire's work as a 550-page advertisement for bitcoin. However, Dalio also warns about the risks for this cryptocurrency in this book. The financier believes that a new alternative may appear in the market due to the nature of the evolutionary process. The billionaire predicts that capital will flow into non-fungible tokens and other coins in the future, for diversification purposes. At the same time, he did not purchase NFTs himself, but the mania accompanying this innovation causes him some interest.
The head of the world's largest hedge fund still does not rule out that governments can outlaw bitcoin, as they once outlawed gold and silver. “Alternative currency is a threat to any government. Each of them wants a monopoly on their currency," Dalio writes.

- Kevin O'Leary, an American entrepreneur and star of the popular business and finance show Shark Tank, said that he is ready to increase the share of cryptocurrencies in his investment portfolio to 20%. However, he is waiting for clearer regulation of the industry to do this.
O'Leary had previously been a crypto sceptic, but these assets already occupy about 10% of his portfolio now, a significant part of them are stablecoins pegged to the US dollar. This is how he is trying to protect himself from inflation of the world reserve currency. According to the entrepreneur, his optimism towards stablecoins is shared by many institutional investors. At the same time, O'Leary has a different attitude to bitcoin due to its significant volatility: “You will not invest 20% or 30% of your portfolio in bitcoin if you are an institutional investor, you simply will not. And stablecoins may well get such an allocation,” he said.

- Bitcoin markets have been consolidating since the start of the year, but chain metrics paint a more positive picture as more and more assets become illiquid. Glassnode examined the supply performance of bitcoin in its report dated January 03, 2022. The results showed that while the asset has been trading sideways so far this year, the illiquid supply has accelerated and now accounts for 76% of the total.
Glassnode defines illiquidity as moving BTC to a wallet with no history of spending. The liquid stock of BTC, which is 24%, is in wallets that regularly spend or trade coins.
The figures indicate that more and more bitcoin is being transferred to storage, which indicates an increase in accumulation. The reduction in highly liquid supply also hints that there is no need to expect a major sell-off or surrender to the bears in the near future.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 08, 2022, 01:12:58 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 10 - 14, 2022


EUR/USD: Awaiting the January FOMC Meeting

The EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend for seven weeks in a row, moving along the horizon 1.1300 in the 1.1220-1.1385 channel. Even the publication of the protocols could not get it out of this state of the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which confirmed the seriousness of this central bank's intentions to tighten monetary policy and strengthen dollars. Apparently, the regulator is frightened by the rate of inflation in the country. In addition, it did not expect the Omicron coronavirus strain to have a significant negative impact on economic activity in the United States.

To normalize the situation, the Fed decided to finally stop the printing press and move on to raise interest rates. The roadmap for the near future includes three main points: 1) the curtailment of the emergency stimulus program in March; 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance.

These intentions of the Fed led to a sharp outflow of funds from risky assets. Stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes collapsed, while US Treasury yields and the DXY dollar index went up. Although, it should be noted that the strengthening of the US currency was insignificant: the dollar won back only 45 points against the euro, dropping the EUR/USD pair from 1.1345 to the Pivot Point 1.1300.

The release of data from the US labor market on Friday, January 7th could be another important event of the week. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP) was expected to grow from 249K to 400K. However, it fell to 199K instead. On the other hand, the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 3.9% against the forecast of 4.1%. Thus, investors did not receive any clear signals, and the pair completed the weekly session near the upper border of the side corridor, at 1.1360.

According to some experts, the difference in the hawkish attitude of the Fed and the dovish attitude of the ECB should eventually lead to a further strengthening of the dollar and the movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south.

Recall that the European regulator, although it raised the inflation forecast for 2022 at its last meeting in 2021, still considers it a temporary phenomenon, which is why it is not worth it yet to worry. It was announced once again that the refinancing rate will remain at the current level until inflation reaches the target level of 2.0% and will remain there for a long time. Eventually, the “main” result of the December meeting of the ECB was the head of the bank Christine Lagarde's statement that the rate hike in 2022 was “very unlikely”.

Strategists of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) have voted for the strengthening of the US currency. They believe that the EUR/USD pair will fall to the 1.1100 zone in Q2 and Q4 of this year, and it will be even lower at 1.1000 in Q4.  Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) are in solidarity with ING, predicting a downward trend of this pair as well.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) designated the following route for EUR/USD: Q2 - 1.1100, Q3 - 1.1000, Q4 - 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200.

 However, there is an opposite opinion among experts. For example, Barclays Bank already considers the dollar to be highly overvalued. Therefore, it is expected to depreciate moderately against the backdrop of rising risk appetites and commodity prices, caused by the recovery of the global world economy and cooling inflation. The Barclays scenario written for EUR/USD looks like this: Q1 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.

Morgan Stanley believes that the Fed's rate hike will proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks will move from dovish to hawkish politics. This will lead to a convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise the EUR/USD pair to 1.1800. The Goldman Sachs strategists call the same goal.

As for the near term, despite the poor NFP indicators, we can expect that the pair will continue to move along the level of 1.1300 until the January Fed meeting, fluctuating in in the range of 1.1220-1.1385 with the predominance of bearish sentiment. 70% of analysts agree with this forecast. 15% have taken a neutral position and another 15% side with the bulls.

The readings of the indicators on D1 are inconsistent as they are under the influence of a multi-week sideways trend. Among the oscillators, 60% point to the north, but 20% are already signaling that the pair is overbought, 20% point south, and 20% point east. Trend indicators have 55% green and 45% red.

The nearest resistance level is 1.1385, then 1.1435-1.1465 and 1525. The nearest support level is at 1.1275, followed by 1.1220. This is followed by the last November 24 low of 1.1185 and the zone 1.1075-1.1100.

The economic calendar of the coming week is highlighted by the publication on January 12, 13 and 14 of a whole pool of macro-statistics from the USA. It will include consumer price indices and retail sales indices, producer price indices, and retail sales volumes in December 2021.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks vs Fed Hawks

The fact that, unlike the Fed and the ECB, the Bank of England launched an attack on rising prices in December made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the regulator raised the rate for the first time in three years from 0.1% to 0.25%. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to the new coronavirus strain. According to the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, the number one task is to curb price pressure on the economy and society.

Of course, the rate hike by 15 basis points cannot be called significant, but, most importantly, the first step has already been taken, and the market expects the second rate hike in February.

Such expectations continue to support the British currency, and the GBP/USD pair updated its eight-week high on January 05, reaching 1.3598. The finish of the five-day period took place slightly lower, at 1.3590.

Strategists at the British investment Barclays Bank believe that the pound is still very undervalued, and that the policy of the US Federal Reserve will eventually lead to a moderate depreciation of the dollar. They do not exclude that due to the new wave of COVID-19 and difficulties in relations with the EU due to Brexit, the pair may drop to 1.3300 in Q1. However, then it will go up again (Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000) and will return to the 2021 highs by the end of the year (Q4), rising to the level of 1.4200.

Capital Economics, one of the leading independent research centers in the UK, has taken the opposite position. Its specialists, on the contrary, expect the pound to weaken, and refer to a combination of 1) weak economic growth, 2) slowdown in inflation and 3) slowness of the Bank of England. These three factors, in their opinion, may lead to the fact that the UK regulator decides to raise the rate only to 0.5% in the coming months, instead of 1.0%, which will greatly disappoint the markets.

But, in addition to the growth and fall of the British currency, there is a third scenario. ING Group analysts predict that the pound will be somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, the GBP/USD pair will move sideways along the horizon of 1.3400.

If we talk about the near future of the pair, 40% of analysts vote for its growth above the level of 1.3600, 50% vote for a fall below 1.3400 and 10% for a sideways trend.

The indicators on D1 have a pretty summery mood. Among the oscillators, 100% is colored green, although 25% of them are already in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, 90% are green and only 10% are red.

The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. Resistance levels are 1.3600, 1.3735, 1.3835.

Important macro-statistics from the UK will be scarce next week. We can only note the data on the volume of production in the manufacturing industry, which will become known on Tuesday January 11 and Friday January 14.
 
USD/JPY: Pair at 5-Year High

The color of the indicators for this pair is also predominantly green. However, unlike GBP/USD, this does not indicate a weakening of the dollar, but, on the contrary, its strengthening.

We wrote a week ago that Japan needs a weak national currency. Thus, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has recently said that a weak yen would rather help the country's economy than harm it. According to the senior official, if the yen falls, it will support exports and corporate profits. And if you look at the USD/JPY chart, his words do not differ from the deeds: the pair updated its high on January 04 and rose to the point where it has not been seen since January 2017, to the height of 116.35.

According to ING Group experts, the growth will not stop there, and we will see the pair at a height of 120.00 by the end of the year. Morgan Stanley also prefers the dollar, expecting growth to 118.00. On the contrary, Goldman Sachs believes that the pair will fall to 111.00 by 2023.

The pair finished last week at 115.55. As already mentioned, despite the slight correction, most of the indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators there are 90% of those (10% of them are signaling the pair being overbought), the remaining 10% are colored neutral gray. Among trend indicators, 85% recommend buying, 15% - selling. Experts also agree with the indicators: 80% of them side with the bulls, 0% for the bears, 20% choose neutrality. Support levels are 115.50, 115.00, 114.25, 113.75, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance level is 116.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Full Crypto Winter? Or Temporary Freezes?

(https://i.imgur.com/eytS5OH.jpg)

it is the middle of winter in the northern hemisphere of the planet Earth. And the weather on the crypto market is corresponding, below zero. Quotes are falling, and there is not even a hint of warming so far. Another cold wave arose after the news appeared on the night of January 06 that the US Federal Reserve is ready to raise the key interest rate earlier and at a faster pace than was expected. This became clear from the published minutes of the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Inspired by this news, the bears went on the attack again. Anti-government unrest in Kazakhstan added anxiety to investors. Recall that a part of the miners immigrated there after the ban on mining in China, as a result of which Kazakhstan took the 2nd place in the world in BTC production (TOP-3: USA - 35.4%, Kazakhstan - 18.1%, Russia - 11.23%). The Internet was cut off due to the unrest in Kazakhstan, which led to a significant decrease in the hash rate on the BTC network.

These two events caused the BTC/USD pair to break through support around $46,000, where the 200-day moving average was passing, and fell below $42,000. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to the Extreme Fear zone, hitting 15 points out of 100, indicating panic reigning in the market. The Bitcoin Dominance Index fell to 39.65%, hitting the May 2021 lows. (Recall that it was 95.88% at the maximum in 2013). Naturally, the collapsed bitcoin pulled the entire crypto market along with it. If its total capitalization was $2.439 trillion on December 27, it lost almost 19% by January 7 and fell to $1.980 trillion, breaking through an important psychological level of $2 trillion.

It should be noted that the attack of bears on the eve of the next meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26 was predictable. Our weekly crypto news review quoted economist Alex Kruger as saying that “investors should be expected to exit risky assets ahead of the Fed meeting.” Which is exactly what happened.

The next line of active defense of the bulls, according to a number of experts, awaits bears in the $39,500- $41,900 zone. It is there, near the low of last April 12, is the range of high liquidity, according to the TradingView publication. It was not withdrawn even before the last wave of the asset's rally, when the price of bitcoin hit an all-time high.

Despite the fact that the crypto market is falling for the eighth week in a row, many experts and investors are hoping for the imminent arrival of the crypto spring. For example, Block.One co-founder, former actor and former US presidential candidate Brock Pierce is confident that bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year. Governments are printing excessive amounts of money, thereby fueling inflation, and this will be the main reason for BTC to take off. “I wouldn't be surprised if bitcoin trades for $100,000. It is quite possible that it can jump over $200,000 for a moment,” this influencer said optimistically.

Antoni Trenchev, co-founder and managing partner of Nexo, a major cryptocurrency lender (more than $6 billion), heralds a stellar future for the main digital asset. “I think bitcoin will reach $100,000 this year, perhaps by the middle of this year,” he predicts.

The head of the investment company Ava Labs, John Wu, expressed the opinion in an interview with CNBC that the capitalization of the crypto market will exceed $5 trillion in 2022. According to Wu's forecast, digital assets have the potential to at least double their market value in the next year.

According to the head of Ava Labs, cryptocurrencies will be the only asset class that can withstand both the actions of the Fed and the record increase in inflation, which reached its maximum values in the US in almost 40 years in early December 2021. Wu also claims that the share of bitcoin will fall below 30% with the growth of the crypto market, although the price may exceed $75,000 per coin.

An interesting way to assess the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency was proposed by analyst Benjamin Cowen. In his opinion, bitcoin has already bottomed out, although its decline may continue, somewhere up to $40,000. According to Cowen, it can be more revealing sometimes to value bitcoin not in the BTC/USD pair, but in comparison with other assets. As an example, he suggests looking at BTC paired with the S&P500 index. According to the expert, bitcoin has already reached critical support here, as “it is testing levels that were tested back in September”.

The experts of Glassnode are in solidarity with Benjamin Cowen, although they use completely different methods of market analysis. According to their estimates, the BTC market indicators paint a fairly positive picture, since an increasing amount of this asset is becoming illiquid. Glassnode examined the dynamics and the supply performance of bitcoin in its report dated January 03, 2022. The results showed that the growth of illiquid asset supply accelerated last year, which now accounts for 76% of the total. Glassnode defines illiquidity as moving BTC to a wallet with no history of spending. The liquid stock of BTC, which is 24%, is in wallets that regularly spend or trade coins.

The figures indicate that more and more bitcoin is being transferred to storage, which indicates an increase in accumulation. The reduction in highly liquid supply also hints that there is no need to expect a major sell-off or surrender to the bears in the near future.

It will not be long to wait until the Fed meeting on January 26. We will see then whether such estimates are right. In conclusion, we just recall the words of the aforementioned Benjamin Cowen.  “Anything is possible in the case of investment,” he writes. “All models can be wrong, although some can be useful...”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 12, 2022, 04:53:31 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ZNHd1aM.jpg)

- China's Supreme Economic Planning Authority has officially declared crypto mining "obsolete", backing up the government's efforts to eradicate the industry entirely. The National Development and Reform Commission made the announcement on Monday, January 10, explaining along the way that the country's economy is moving towards a model that favors cleaner, less resource-intensive industries. According to business consultancy Dezan Shira & Associate, the “obsolete” label refers not only to mining, but also to other technologies that will be banned from investment and should be phased out.
As a reminder, China had been the world leader in this industry until last year, when government bans drove most of the crypto miners out of the country,

- The global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. This forecast was given by the CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao in an article for the Indian version of Fortune. The main drivers, in his opinion, will be the SocialFi, GameFi and NFT sectors.
Regarding India, Zhao noted the importance of government support for blockchain and cryptocurrency innovation, regardless of asset classification. According to the NASSCOM report, it is expected that the crypto market in the country will reach $241 million by 2030 and potentially create 877 thousand jobs. The organization also predicts an increase in the inflow of funds from retail investors in digital assets to $15.6 billion from $6.6 billion currently.
The head of Binance stressed that India is poised to “become a leader in blockchain and cryptocurrencies.” “In addition to banking and financial services, DLT technology can improve the efficiency of land transactions, supply chains, agriculture and corporate sustainability,” Zhao added.

- According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. “I'm not surprised by the bearish sentiment on bitcoin. Our futures-based indicator looks oversold", said the bank's strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. According to him, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

- Jack Dorsey's Block (formerly Square) payment company has opened a recruitment process to develop a next-generation bitcoin miner and a hardware wallet “for the next 100 million bitcoin users.” This is stated in the corresponding section on the company's website. “Our goal is to expand economic opportunities, starting with providing easy-to-use and reliable self-service to a global audience,” the announcement says.

- Bitcoin continues to fall in price after it reached an all-time high of $69,000 last November. Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz called this a healthy pullback in a recent interview with CNBC. He believes that the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth, thanks to purchases by institutional investors.
Nigel Green, CEO of the consulting company deVere Group, has also stated that this is the best time in the current cycle to buy bitcoin.

- However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists believe.
The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.
“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

- Bitcoin is classified as a risky asset, and it moves mainly in the same direction as technology stocks. Sometimes the correlation of BTC with such assets weakens, but the overall dependence remains high.
Analysts associate the January fall in cryptocurrency with the retreat of stock indices, which is taking place against the background of the US Federal Reserve's readiness to raise the discount rate this quarter. Correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 has increased to its highest level since July 2020, according to Kaiko platform. A similar situation is observed between BTC and the Nasdaq index.

- Up to 50% of all transactions in one form or another will be made through Ethereum in 10-20 years. This was stated by Joey Krug, co-director of investments at Pantera Capital in an interview with Bloomberg.
The top manager is convinced that the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization will play an important role in global finance, and that the explosive growth of Ethereum killers will not be able to undermine its dominance. “There are many compromises in other blockchains, while Ethereum is in the best position in terms of decentralization, which is extremely important,” explained the Pantera Capital Co-Chief Investment Officer.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett said what, in his opinion, awaits Ethereum against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. “One needs to be careful as long as ETH is below $4,000. If ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021. ”Bennett himself does not mind replenishing his leading altcoin stocks at around $3,000.
The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 Ethereum, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support.

- A resident of San Francisco (USA) Siraj Raval uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 to mine Ethereum. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery.
According to Raval, he was mining for about 20 hours a day on the Tesla battery and was earning from $400 to $800 per month throughout 2021, which made such mining profitable even during the bear market. (The monthly cost of recharging the car was only $30 to $60, despite the fact that he was driving it as well.)
However, another miner who used Tesla, Thomas Somers, doubted that much profit. “The best estimate I would give for a GPU hashrate in Model 3 would be around 7-10 MH/s. Currently, this will generate revenue of about $13 at a rate of 10 MH/s without taking into account any costs,“ Somers said.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 16, 2022, 03:29:12 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 17 - 21, 2022

EUR/USD: Rumors That Drive the Markets

(https://i.imgur.com/Ar3hKKX.jpg)

The weather on the market is quite often determined by rumors which have very little to do with reality. Or nothing at all. But those who spread them can earn good money by speculating on them. Something similar seems to have happened last week.

Recall that the EUR/USD pair has been in a sideways trend since November, fluctuating in the range of 1.1220-1.1385. And most analysts voted for the continuation of such a movement a week ago, with a predominance of bearish sentiment. The US Fed's hawkish intentions to end the emergency stimulus program, raise interest rates, and start normalizing the balance sheet were an argument in favor of the dollar's strength.

Note that neither the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, nor other officials of the American central bank have ever said or even hinted that the rate could be raised four times during 2022. It is unclear where this figure came from, but rumors about such an opportunity began to be actively exaggerated and, as a result, many investors believed in it.

Speaking in the US Congress on Tuesday, January 11, Jerome Powell just repeated what he had already voiced earlier. He said once again that the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year in order to combat a record inflation in forty years, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But the market was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound.

As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, closing below the 50-day moving average, and the EUR/USD pair, instead of moving south, went north.

Thanks to US inflation data, the euro further strengthened its position the next day, on Wednesday, January 12, and the pair EUR/USD, having broken through the border of the medium-term sideways channel, went further up. The breakdown of resistance in the 1.1385 zone served as a trigger for a correction after the strengthening of the dollar that began in May 2021 and the subsequent month-and-a-half sideways trend. The weekly high was reached on the morning of Friday, January 14 at the height of 1.1482.

US retail sales and consumer confidence data released at the end of the week were much worse than previous figures, confirming the negative impact of the Omicron coronavirus strain on the US economy. It is not yet possible to predict exactly how much they will affect the next steps of the Fed. But, judging by the reaction of the market, investors decided that such statistics would push the regulator to take more decisive action. As a result, the EUR/USD pair finished at 1.1415.

Of course, the dollar may retreat a little more in the short term. However, the difference between the hawkish policy of the Fed and the dovish policy of the ECB should still support the USD. Moreover, the head of the Fed once again stressed in recent comments that the fight against inflation is a top priority for the US regulator, and expressed confidence that the US economy will cope with the rate increase.

Also, according to a number of experts, the increase in rates may occur more often than once a quarter, as was the case in the previous cycle of monetary tightening. However, this is just an opinion so far that can give rise to another wave of rumors and expectations. Investors expect to find out what will happen in reality following the results of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on January 26-27.

At the time of writing, 75% of D1 oscillators are green and 25% are giving signals EUR/USD is overbought. Trend indicators have 65% green and 35% red. Among the experts, the majority (75%) does not exclude the growth of the pair in the coming week. However, the weather vane of opinions turns 180 degrees in the forecast for February, and here it is already 75% of analysts who are in favor of the dollar strengthening. Resistances are located at the levels of 1.1450, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels and zones are 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Monday January 17 and Thursday January 20. The ECB's statement on monetary policy and the issue of statistics on the US labor market are also expected on Thursday. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is to speak on Friday, January 21.

GBP/USD: Bank of England vs Fed: a Game to Stay Ahead

Naturally, in addition to the meetings of the FRS and the ECB, the meeting of the Bank of England will also take place in January. It should be borne in mind that, unlike its peers, this regulator started attacking rising prices back in December, and this made a strong impression on the market. After inflation in the UK rose to 5.1%, reaching a 10-year peak, the Central bank of the kingdom raised the rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years. The decision was made despite the worsening epidemiological situation due to a new coronavirus strain. And here the opinion of the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, coincided with that of Jerome Powell: for both, the No. 1 task was to reduce price pressure on the economy and society. But the position of the former looks more hawkish, although the rate increase by 15 basis points is not significant. But the first step has been taken, and the market expects a second rate hike in February.

Such expectations continue to support the British currency, thanks to which the GBP/USD pair was able to update the high of the last eleven weeks, reaching the height of 1.3748. However, it failed to break above the 200-day SMA, and the last chord of the five-day week, after the strengthening of the dollar in the second half of Friday, January 14, sounded at 1.3678.

According to 60% of analysts, the GBP/USD pair may make another attempt to rise above the 1.3800 horizon in the coming days. This scenario is supported by 90% of trend indicators on D1 and 80% of oscillators. The remaining 20% signal that the pair is overbought. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, the scales tilt in favor of the bears, when moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, and here it is already 55% that are waiting for the pair to move down.

Supports are located at 1.3659, 1.3600, 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

Important macro data from the UK will suffice next week. There will be data on unemployment and the average wages in the country on Tuesday, January 18. Then, the consumer price index will be known the next day. In addition, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak on Wednesday, January 19, and retail sales for December 2021 will be published on Friday, January 19. This is an important indicator of consumer spending, which also correlates with consumer confidence and is considered as an indicator of the UK economy development pace. According to forecasts, it is expected to fall from 1.4% to minus 0.6%.

USD/JPY: The Yen Strength Is the Weak Dollar

USD/JPY dropped from 116.35 high (high since January 2017) to 113.47 last week on the back of Jerome Powell's speech and lower US Treasury yields. However, the ultra-dove position of the Japanese regulator is unlikely to further strengthen the yen. The dollar seems to be gaining strength again, and the pair went up again at the end of the weekly session, rising to the level of 114.18.

With USD/JPY moving south for the last week and a half, most of the indicators on D1 turned red. Among the oscillators, these are 80% of them, 10% give signals of the pair being oversold, and 10% have already changed their color to green. Among trend indicators, 60% recommend selling, 40% recommend buying. Among experts, 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 40% for its fall, and 10% have taken a neutral position.

Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

The decision of the Bank of Japan on the key interest rate will be announced on Tuesday, January 18. And it will highly likely remain at the same negative level as before, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the country's economy, as it supports exports and corporate profits.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: And Here Too, Thank You Jerome Powell

Satoshi Nakamoto launched the bitcoin mainnet by mining the genesis block with 50 BTC in January 2009. Only some 13 years have passed since then,  and The National Development and Reform Commission of China declares crypto mining “obsolete” in January 2022. It follows from the official statement of this top economic planning body that preference will now be given to cleaner and less resource-intensive industries, and mining is on the list of "obsolete" technologies that will be banned from investment and must be eliminated.

William Shakespeare was right; nothing lasts forever under the moon. And after digital currencies were declared “persona non grata” in China, the center of influence on the crypto market shifted completely to the United States. Another proof of this was last week, when a few words from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell were enough to stop the fall of bitcoin and turn the trend of the crypto market upwards.

Speaking at the US Senate Banking Committee, Powell said that stablecoins can be used with the Central Bank official digital currencies CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency is fiat money in digital form, which are issued and provided by the Central Bank). But this is not what allowed crypto quotes to move north, but the general weakening of the dollar and the return of investors' risk appetites.

As mentioned above, Jerome Powell made it clear that the Federal Reserve has not yet decided to reduce its balance sheet by almost $9 trillion, and that there will be no four rate hikes in 2022, but no more than three. As a result, the DXY dollar index went down, while stock indices and cryptocurrency quotes went up.

BTC/USD dropped to $39,660 on January 10. It has not fallen this low since September 2021. However, then, following the growth of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, it rose to $44,300  on January 12, and the total capitalization of the crypto market  exceeded the psychologically important level of $2 trillion once again, reaching $2.091 trillion. But the Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not get out of the Extreme Fear zone, although it rose from 15 to 21 points.

It is clear that it is too early to talk about the beginning of a new rally in the crypto market. The BTC/USD pair is 35% below its all-time high, and the total capitalization is still very far from the almost $3 trillion that it reached on November 10, 2021. And, if the dollar starts to gain strength again, we can expect digital assets to return to a downward trend.

Of course, crypto enthusiasts predict as usual that top coins will soon rise to new heights. Changpeng Zhao, CEO of the Binance crypto exchange, claims in an article for Fortune that global adoption of cryptocurrencies will jump from the current 5% to 20% in 2022. And Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz sees the 35% drop as just a “healthy pullback.” In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency will find support around $38,000-40,000, after which it will return to growth. Nigel Green, CEO of consulting company DeVere Group, also states that now is the most convenient time to buy bitcoin in the current cycle.

However, some experts consider such sentiments to be too optimistic. Thus, the ENCRY Foundation predicts that bitcoin may return to growth only after its price drops to $28,000-30,000. “The flows of liquidity to the markets will decrease in the second half of 2022, after the completion of the asset repurchase program in the United States. Then bitcoin may fall to $30,000,” the company's specialists explain.

The current levels cannot yet be described as a market bottom. This is indicated by another expert, Viktor Pershikov, a leading analyst at 8848 Invest. According to him, conditions that have not yet been observed must be fulfilled for the formation of the bottom. This is a long flat (at least two months in the current circumstances) with the accumulation of long positions and an increase in open interest, a decrease in BTC sales by market participants as well as clarification of the speed and degree of tightening of monetary policy by world central banks.

“The current state of the crypto market is characterized by emotional selling to a large extent, including at a loss, which is typical for situations when retail participants are shaken out of the market. The current decline does not pose a threat for large BTC holders and is a normal market correction before further growth," Pershikov says. In his opinion, bitcoin will spend most of the year in the price range of $30,000-70,000.

It is clear that a serious growth of BTC is possible only with the same growth of interest in it from institutional investors. But they seem to be a problem for now. According to Bloomberg, only 5% of customers surveyed by JPMorgan believe that the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 by the end of 2022. More than 40% believe that it will only return to the $60,000 level. According to bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, the fair value of the cryptocurrency ranges from $35,000 to $73,000.

As for bitcoin's main competitor, ethereum, crypto analyst Justin Bennett believes that “as long as ETH is below $4,000, you need to be careful” against the backdrop of a downtrend in the entire market. If only ETH returns to this area in the coming weeks and months and can gain a foothold there, then we can talk about the continuation of the strong bullish trend observed in 2021."

The analyst also looks at ETH against BTC and believes that the ETH/BTC pair could start a long-term rally to 0.18 BTC ($7.388) for 1 ETH, but this would require holding the 0.075 BTC ($3.077) level as support.

All of the above shows that the situation is currently ambiguous. And then how do you make money on virtual currencies? The answer to this question is given in our humorous crypto life hacks column by San Francisco (USA) resident Siraj Raval, who uses his 2018 Tesla Model 3 car for ethereum mining. To do this, he launched the corresponding free software on the Apple Mac mini M1, connecting it to the car's center console. Five graphics cards are powered by the Tesla battery. According to Raval, he mined for about 20 hours a day this way and earned from $400 to $800 a month during 2021.

The numbers do look attractive. It only remains to find about $50,000 to buy such a car and find out if the Chinese authorities will not consider this method of mining harmful and obsolete.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 19, 2022, 04:28:23 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/G8oYunA.jpg)

- Canadian entrepreneur and Shark Tank TV star Kevin O'Leary spoke to Anthony Pompliano about how sovereign wealth funds in the Middle East are considering mining possibilities. In his opinion, they can enter this space within the next two to three years focusing on the shares of "environmentally friendly" companies.
The businessman did not rule out the creation of his own mining company. In addition to the approval of his initiative by the authorities, O'Leary would like to enlist the support of the inhabitants of the territory associated with its deployment. The entrepreneur called the creation of opportunities for mining companies to reflect income from cryptocurrency mining in financial statements as another condition. He believes this will create an incentive to invest for O'Leary and other financiers.

- The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco in their list of “incredible but possible” results for 2022. “Bitcoin’s mass marketing reminds us of stockbrokers' activity leading up to the 1929 crash,” they write.
According to the experts, the drop in quotes from highs around $69,000 to $42,000 in early January is exactly in line with the bubble pattern. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.
At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by the fact that bitcoin seems to pass not through one, but through a series of bubbles.

- Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA licensed cryptocurrency bank, gave an opposite forecast. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022, according to CNBC. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

- TV presenter, filmmaker and former trader Max Kaiser still believes that bitcoin will hit $220,000 this year. He explained in another interview why his forecast was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."
“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

- Another cryptocurrency analyst, Justin Bennett, believes that bitcoin is in for a decent rally in the near future. He reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “You can see since the beginning of 2021 that when bitcoin finds a low below the liquidation level, it makes a move up. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. – says the expert. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance. But bitcoin first needs to break the $45,600 mark to start the rally.”

- The number of vacancies related to the cryptocurrency industry in the US increased by 395% in 2021. Such data is provided by the LinkedIn social network. The sample has included ads containing the words "bitcoin", "ethereum", "blockchain" and "cryptocurrency". At the same time, the number of vacancies in the technology sector increased by 98% over the year.
LinkedIn noted that while most jobs were posted by companies specializing in software and finance, interest in crypto-related candidates was also shown in other areas. We are talking about consulting, accounting, hardware and recruiting.

- The owners of the fake YouTube channel of the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor lured 26 BTC (about $1.1 million) from one of the users. The scheme of fraud was common and widespread: they promised on behalf of Saylor to “double” any amount sent to the specified address in cryptocurrency. No matter how much is written about this type of scam, there are still those who fall for this bait, driven by greed.
“489 of these scam channels were launched on YouTube last week. We complain about them every 15 minutes, they are blocked after a few hours, but scammers launch new ones,” the real Saylor wrote in his verified Twitter account.

- According to Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, he expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. To date, this altcoin has already fallen in price by 36% from its all-time high of $4,878 recorded on November 10, 2021. Brandt is pessimistic as he believes that from a technological standpoint, ethereum is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

- Data from the Glassnode platform shows that investors are buying up ethereum, despite the fall in its value. As mentioned above, this digital currency has lost 36% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.
According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

- Popular analyst PlanB is considered one of the main supporters of the theory that BTC will grow to $100,000 in 2021. He developed a forecasting model for the behavior of the bitcoin price (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for such a rise.
Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.
Analysts of the Twitter channel Root largely agreed with PlanB's opinion. They also believe that bitcoin's growth cycle is not yet complete and is ready to resume growth.

- Umar Farooq, Head of the Cryptocurrency Division at JPMorgan Onyx, compared the current level of development of the cryptocurrency market with the music streaming industry in the 90s. “There was a thing called Napster in the 90s. It was clumsy. Not everyone could use it. And 20 years later, you have Apple Music and Spotify. We live in the era of Napster. We just don't know what Spotify looks like. So I think cryptocurrencies will remain. I just don't know in what form," Umar Farooq said. According to him, the industry has already survived the era of the " Earnings-price ratio West" and has now become an established industry, attracting more and more users.
Earlier, the JPMorgan analyst opined that reduced volatility would enable bitcoin to reach $73,000 in 2022, and the “promised” $146,000 in the long term.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 23, 2022, 11:34:20 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 24 - 28, 2022


EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting: the Day the Markets Are Waiting For

The main event not only of the next week, but of the whole month will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on January 26. Will the regulator raise interest rates now? Or in March? Or will it postpone the curtailment of incentives indefinitely? These questions remain unanswered.

Recall that the roadmap includes three main points at the moment: 1) curtailing the emergency stimulus program in March, 2) three increases in the key rate in 2022, the first of which may also occur in March, after which 3) the regulator will begin to normalize the balance. However, nothing lasts forever under the moon, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve either. So, these points are not constant at all and can be changed.

Even ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the European Central bank has already begun to react and is ready to adjust its policy if facts and figures require it. Although it is not yet very clear what “it has already begun to react” is. And “ready” is a very loose concept.

According to the same Ms. Lagarde, a too rapid rate increase could slow down the growth of the Eurozone's GDP. So why then reduce monetary stimulus and raise the key rate, especially since, according to the bank's management, the surge in inflation is a temporary phenomenon? And inflation in the US is growing faster than in the Eurozone. So let the Fed have a headache about how to stop it. And the ECB can wait until 2023 to raise rates, and at the same time see how things go overseas.

A clear difference between the US Central Bank's hawkish stance and its European counterpart's dovish stance is a strong support for the dollar, pushing the EUR/USD down. However, there are times when the actions of investors are determined not by real economic and political factors, but by rumors spread by speculators.

Something similar seems to have happened on January 11th. Speaking in the US Congress that day, Jerome Powell stated once again that in order to combat the record for forty years inflation, the Fed is going to raise the refinancing rate at least twice this year, and that if necessary, it can be raised three times. That is, nothing new was actually said. But, thanks to rumors, the market for some reason was waiting for the number "four” and was disappointed because it did not sound. As a result, the DXY dollar index went into a deep peak, and the EUR/USD pair went north instead of moving south.

Due to inflation data in the US, the euro strengthened its positions even more the next day, January 12, and the EUR/USD pair went further up having broken through the border of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. A nine-week high was reached on the morning of January 14 at 1.1482. After that, everything went back to normal. The market realized that there were no real reasons for the euro to strengthen, and the pair found itself within the 1.1220-1.1385 channel once again on Tuesday, January 18, reaching the local bottom at 1.1300 on January 21. The final chord was played at 1.1343.

At the time of writing, most (55%) of the D1 oscillators are red, 20% are green and 25% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 90% red and only 10% green. Among experts, the majority (55%) support the strengthening of the dollar, 45% are for its fall. The nearest resistance zone is 1.1370-1.1385, then 1.1400-1.1435, 1.1480 and 1525. The nearest support zone is 1.1300-1.1315, then 1.1275 and 1.1220. This is followed by the November 24 low of last year at 1.1185 and the 1.1075-1.1100 zone.

As for the economic calendar for the upcoming week, besides the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the subsequent press conference of its management, we can note the release of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone (Markit index) on Monday, January 24. Preliminary data on US GDP will be released on Thursday, January 27, as well as the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. (Since the purchase of such goods usually involves large investments, these data reflect the economic situation in the United States, including the inflationary component.) And, finally, data on German GDP will be published at the end of the working week, on January 28.

GBP/USD: Rate Up Bet

The dollar strengthened its position against the pound slightly over the past week. If the GBP/USD pair was at the height of 1.3748 on January 13, it fell to 1.3545 on the evening of January 21. According to some experts, it's all about he British currency being generally overbought. After the December decision of the Bank of England to raise the interest rate from 0.1% to 0.25% for the first time in three years, the pair showed an increase of about 575 points. So the current fall of 200 points may not mean a medium-term trend reversal, but only a temporary correction.

The pound has a lot of chances to return to growth, even despite the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve. The CPI published on January 19 showed that inflation in the UK rose to its highs in more than 15 years, reaching 5.4% (previous reading 5.1%, forecast 5.2%). The continuing growth of inflationary pressure may force the regulator to raise the key rate as early as at the next meeting on February 03. It is possible that at the same time, against the backdrop of a moderate impact of the omicron strain on the economy of the United Kingdom, plans to reduce monetary stimulus (QE) introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic may also be revised.

A survey conducted by Reuters among 45 experts showed that most of them (65%) expect the Bank of England to raise rates again on February 03, to 0.5% this time. If this happens, then, according to Scotiabank strategists, the GBP/USD pair may return to levels around 1.3800.

More than 75% of analysts expect the rate to be raised to 0.5% by the end of March. Also, according to the median forecast, the British regulator will raise the rate by another 25 basis points in the Q3 (up to a quarter earlier than expected). After that, another increase will follow, up to 1.0%, approximately at the beginning of 2023.

However, as for the forecast for the next few days, 60% of experts side with the bears, expecting the pair to fall at least to the 1.3450-1.3500 zone. Most of the indicators on D1 agree with this forecast: 60% of oscillators point to sell (although 10% are already in the oversold zone), 20% recommend buying and 20% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down.

The supports are located at 1.3525, 1.3480, 1.3430, 1.3375, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The levels and resistance zones are 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

The Bank of England meeting will only take place in early February, and there won't be much important macro data from the UK next week. The publication of the Markit business activity index may cause increased volatility on Tuesday, January 24. Although, most likely, investors will not pay much attention to it on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting.

USD/JPY: Yen as a Safe Haven

The meeting of another central bank, Japan, took place last week, on January 18. As expected, the key rate remained at the same negative level, minus 0.1%. As we wrote earlier, according to this regulator, the country does not need a strong currency, and a weak yen is more likely to help the economy, as it supports Japanese exports and corporate profits.

In general, last week's results for the USD/JPY pair can be assessed as neutral. First, it went up and rose to the height of 115.05 on Tuesday, January 18. Then the trend changed to a downtrend, and the pair dropped to where it was trading a week ago, to the zone of 113.60-114.00 by the end of the five-day period.

The Japanese currency was supported by the weakening of the risk appetite of the market. Investors began to abandon risky assets once again in favor of the yen, which plays the role of a "safe haven". The reasons for this change in sentiment were forecasts for rising inflation, uncertainty about the monetary policy of world central banks and the growth of geopolitical tensions.

The USD/JPY pair finished last week at 113.66, that is, within the trading range 113.40-114.40, where it has regularly been in the last three months. And although 60% of analysts vote for its growth, 25% for a fall and 15% for a sideways trend, the median forecast suggests that it will stay within this channel. Of course, provided that the US Federal Reserve does not present any surprises at its meeting. And you should not forget about the international political situation, there are also possible surprises, and very unpleasant ones at that.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are facing south, although 25% of them are already giving signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, 35% recommend buying. Support levels are 113.50, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 114.00-114.25, 114.40-114.65, then there are levels 115.00, 115.45, 116.00 and 116.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It Is Not Just Winter in the Crypto Market, It Is Polar Cold

(https://i.imgur.com/lemprC0.jpg)

Quotes of risky assets remain under strong pressure in anticipation of the US Federal Reserve meeting. The Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq stock indices have been losing their positions for almost the entire month of January. But as for the top cryptocurrencies, they have been quite successful in repulsing bear attacks for the last two weeks. If we talk about bitcoin, buyers did their best to keep the BTC/USD pair quotes from reaching the psychologically important horizon of $40,000. However, the bears managed to break through the defense on Friday, January 21 and lower the pair to $36,160. The total capitalization of the crypto market flew down as well, falling to $1.72 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index was firmly stuck in the Extreme Fear zone, dropping to 19 points.

The situation, according to a number of experts, does not bode well for cryptocurrencies at the moment. The bubble is deflating, so the bitcoin price may fall to $30,000. This opinion was expressed by specialists from the investment company Invesco, drawing an analogy with the crash of 1929.

The decline from the $69,000 highs is exactly in line with the bubble pattern, analysts say. This trajectory assumes that the asset will lose 45% of its value within 12 months after the peak. That is, according to their calculations, the price will fall to $34,000-$37,000 by the end of October and to $30,000 by the end of 2022.

At the same time, Invesco admitted that they made a mistake with the forecast for 2021, when they predicted a fall in the BTC price below $10,000. Analysts explained their mistake by saying that bitcoin seems to be going through not one, but a series of bubbles. (Although, perhaps, Invesco experts were just in a hurry, and this forecast will come true this year).

Popular analyst PlanB had made a mistake with his forecast for the past year as well. Recall that he developed a model for predicting the behavior of the bitcoin rate (S2F), the signals of which indicated the prospects for BTC to rise to $100,000 in 2021. Despite the fact that the S2F forecast did not come true, PlanB continues to stick to his theory. He is confident that bitcoin has not yet realized the potential laid in it by the 2020 halving. According to the analyst, the coin is now near local lows and is preparing to renew all-time highs in March. According to the analyst, the peak value of bitcoin within the current cycle can be recorded in July-August 2022.

Another unsuccessful predictor was TV presenter and former trader Max Kaiser. He explained In another interview why his forecast of $220,000 for bitcoin was not realized last year. “As for 2021, I said we would get to $220,000 per coin, which is a typical four-year cycle. What we had in 2021 was a massive mining collapse in China, the hash rate fell by 50%. We have recovered since then and are about to reach a new all-time record hash rate. That's why I'm moving my goal from 2021 to 2022."

“There is a price, there is a hash rate and there is a complexity setting: these are three things you need to keep in mind,” Max Keiser explains. “I have always said that the price lags behind the hash rate, so once we see its new all-time highs, new all-time highs of the bitcoin price will follow.”

Guido Buehler, CEO of SEBA cryptocurrency bank, calls a three times more modest goal. He believes that digital gold could rise to $75,000 by the end of 2022. “Our internal valuation models point to a price between $50,000 and $75,000. I am quite sure that we will see this level,” he said, adding that the volatility of bitcoin will remain high, but the asset will be able to test new record levels, the only question is the timing.

Cryptocurrency analyst Justin Bennett's forecast can also be classified as optimistic, although the numbers here are even smaller. Bennett reviewed BTC historical price movement models that show that the asset is expected to rise by 20-30%. “It can be seen that starting from early 2021, bitcoin, finding the minimum below the liquidation level, then makes an upward movement. The average rate of such movement is about 63%, and the lowest was in April, about 27%. - the expert says. “If you take this data and look at the low around $40,000, then a minimum move of around 27% would take the market to around $50,000. This is highly likely given that the $50,000-53,000 range is very important, and sellers will defend this range as resistance.

There is no clear opinion on the future of ethereum either. Some still hope that the ETH/USD pair will meet 2023 around $7,000-10,000, while others expect the coin to crash after bitcoin. For example, Peter Brandt, a Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, expects a further decline in the price of ethereum. In his opinion, from a technological point of view, this altcoin is “a very complex, costly, and user-inconvenient platform in terms of its use for NFTs, special tokens, and its involvement in the metaverse.” Based on this, Brandt concludes that ETH will lose points in the eyes of investors, giving way to competitors.

Peter Brandt's forecast is quite controversial. Indeed, the slow protocol has led to delays in transactions and a significant increase in fees. Sometimes a transaction costs more than $50, which is very expensive compared to the competition. For example, the commission is less than a cent in Solana. However, due to its high decentralization, ethereum is still the first in terms of the use of smart contracts. At the moment, this altcoin dominates the rest of the blockchains in the DeFi sector with $157 billion of blocked funds or 66% of the total market. Its lead is even greater in the NFT sector: here ETH is almost a monopoly as its share exceeds 90%.

It is possible that its share will decrease over time due to competition, but many experts still promise a bright future for this altcoin. The transition to the proof-of-stake protocol and the subsequent network scaling should help it maintain its leading position. The “X hour” for these steps is scheduled for the Q2 2022 at the moment. However, there is a certain risk that the date will be postponed again. This does not seem to scare investors much though. According to the Glassnode platform, they are buying up coins despite the drop in their value.

Ethereum has already lost about 50% of its value in two months. At the same time, the number of ETH wallets with a non-zero balance has reached a new high of 73,025,019. Network activity is also increasing, which indicates the desire of investors to take advantage of the correction and buy as many tokens as possible. The average daily number of transactions on the blockchain exceeds 1.2 million at the moment.

According to Glassnode analysts, ETH will trade in a narrow range until a clear vector of movement for the US stock market is formed. If the capital goes into risky assets again, then the ethereum will resume the rise along with bitcoin.

But when will this happen?

And will it happen at all?



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 26, 2022, 03:34:11 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- McDonald's fast-food chain has trolled crypto investors amid the fall of the crypto market. McDonald's joked that the owners of digital assets have to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. The post was liked by the community and gained almost 100,000 likes.
In response to the fast-food joke, the CEO of the technology company MicroStrategy Michael Saylor posted his photo wearing a cap with the McDonald's logo and the caption: “Doing my best to buy more bitcoins”.
Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele also reacted to the joke about bankrupt crypto investors who are forced to cook burgers. Like Michael Saylor, he tweeted a photo of himself wearing a McDonald's cap. This tweet was immediately commented on by a Shibetoshi Nakamoto, who wrote: "Welcome to the McDonald's family, sir."

- But the well-known economist and critic of bitcoin, Nouriel Roubini called on the government of El Salvador in all seriousness to impeach President Nayib Bukele because of his investments in the first cryptocurrency. According to Roubini, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy. “El Salvador’s bitcoin experiment is a real disaster: BTC holders have lost 50% [of the portfolio],” he wrote, calling Bukele a “clown” and a “criminal president” along the way.

- McDonald's trolling has not been ignored by other influencers either. So, the director of the Gemini crypto exchange Tyler Winklevoss wrote that he considers the current fall as an excellent opportunity to buy coins on the Big McBottom. And Elon Musk promised to eat the Happy Meal during the TV broadcast "if McDonald's starts accepting Dogecoin."

- The collapse of bitcoin creates an opportunity to become richer, says Robert Kiyosaki. Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur said he would buy more digital gold if its price dropped to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is coming."
Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now.

- Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. In response, Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz offered Schiff a $1 million bet. He promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year. At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained.

- Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it.

- Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months.
The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says.

- According to many market participants, bitcoin can go to the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation.
Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold.

- Scott Melker, a trader, analyst, and podcast host, reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote.

- The flagship cryptocurrency has captured the mind of Eric Adams, who is now the mayor of New York. It was last Friday, during an epic price drop, that he received his first paycheck in bitcoin and ethereum, which cut his US dollar pay by 15%. However, Adams did not express any regret about this, apparently believing that he would win in the end anyway. "My goal is to send a message that New York is open to technology and encourage our Newbie trader people to participate in new emerging markets," says the 110th mayor of the US's largest city.

- Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second problem is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.”
According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators, and congressmen, as well as large public companies.
As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin.


#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 30, 2022, 12:20:50 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 31 - February 04, 2022


EUR/USD: Surprises from the US Federal Reserve

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The meeting of the US Federal Reserve FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and the subsequent press conference of its management was certainly the main event of the last week. JP Morgan analysts called the speech of Jerome Powell, the head of the US central bank, the most “hawkish” of all during his tenure.

As for the first increase in the federal funds rate this year, there were no surprises: it is likely to take place in March, as planned. True, Jerome Powell did not answer the question of how much it will be increased, 25 or 50 basis points (bp). But at the same time, he made it clear that the Fed will be quite “agile” and “intractable” from now on. Apparently, the regulator will no longer pay attention to either the coronavirus omicron strain or the stock indices collapse and will focus on controlling inflation.

The number of possible increases in the refinancing rate in 2022 was a real surprise for the markets. Powell's speech led to the market upgrading the probability of three increases by June from 45% to 60%. In total, there can be five or six of them this year. For example, Deutsche Bank experts forecast a 25 bp rate hike in March, May, and June, and two more acts of monetary restriction before the end of the year. And their colleagues from BNP Paribas have set their sights on six raises. There may even be seven of them If inflation continues to be at a high level in the second half of the year. After all, the head of the Fed has made it clear that the main tool to fight inflation will be the federal funds rate.

In addition, the US Central bank has decided to double the pace of rolling back its quantitative easing (QE) program. The volume of government bonds repurchases will decrease by $20 billion per month from next month (now $10 billion), and of mortgages by $10 billion (now $5 billion).

All of these hawkish signals have shown that the regulator's stance has become much tighter and have made a huge impression on the derivatives market. The direct correlation between government bond yields and the DXY dollar index was restored, and the index jumped above 97.35.

Recall that the euro is the basis of the basket of 6 world currencies that form the DXY, with a share of 57.6%. Therefore, the European currency played a leading role in the growth of the index and the strengthening of the dollar in the current situation. The difference between the Fed's hawkish stance and the ECB's dovish stance has been repeatedly spoken about. The European Central Bank intends to only start raising the rate in 2023, while its counterpart overseas will already be completing this program. And such a divergence does not bode well for the Old World currency.

The EUR/USD pair lost more than 220 points at its high in the past week alone, which was a record for the last seven months. The local bottom was found on Friday, January 28 at the level of 1.1121, followed by a slight correction and a finish at 1.1148.

Of course, if the US Federal Reserve conducts an ultra-aggressive tightening of its monetary policy, it can lead to a sharp reduction in consumer demand, with all the ensuing problems. But this is not happening so far. And it will always be possible to soften the position even if it ever happens. Therefore, the probability of the pair falling towards 1.1000 is very high. This is the figure that sounds both in the forecasts of strategists and the Internationale Nederlanden Groep, as well as the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce.

At the time of writing, 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators on D1 are red, though 30% of the latter are in the oversold zone. Among experts, the majority (60%) are in favor of further strengthening of the dollar, 40% believe that everything is not lost for the euro yet, and the pair will be able to temporarily return to the boundaries of the medium-term side channel 1.1220-1.1385. The nearest resistance zone is located at 1.1185, followed by 1.1220, 1.1275, 1.1355-1.1385 and 1.1485. The nearest support zone is 1.1075-1.1100 and then 1.0980-1.1025.

As for the calendar of the upcoming week, the attention of the market will be mainly focused on the ECB meeting on Thursday, February 03. It is not likely to present any special surprises, and the interest rate will remain the same, at the level of 0%. However, certain changes in the monetary policy of the European regulator are still possible. And investors expect to learn about them at the final press conference.

In general, the week will be full of macro-economic statistics. There will be data on the GDP of the Eurozone and the consumer market in Germany on Monday, January 31. The volumes of retail sales in Germany, the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector, as well as the results of a study of the European banking sector will be announced on Tuesday. There will be statistics on the Eurozone consumer market and the level of employment in the private sector in the US on Wednesday. The value of the ISM business activity index in the US services sector will become known on Thursday. And in addition to data on retail sales in the Eurozone, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) on the first Friday of the month, February 04.

GBP/USD: How Will the Bank of England Respond?

The Markit Services PMI for the UK released on January 24 came in below the forecast at 53.3 versus the expected 55.0. Further, the expected active increase in rates by the Fed, and then preliminary data on US GDP for the fourth quarter of 2021, played on the side of the dollar. They showed an increase that no one expected: 6.9% against the forecast of 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. Apparently, the US economy has not only recovered from the COVID-19 attack but has recovered so much that economic growth has even surpassed the 2019 figures.

All this has not benefited the British currency of course. And then there are the demands for the resignation of British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, which the market regarded as another bearish factor. As a result, the GBP/USD pair fixed a low at 1.3357, falling by almost 400 points in two weeks.

Can the pound return to growth even despite the US Fed's hawkish stance? We are likely to get an answer to this question soon enough.­ After all, in addition to the ECB meeting, there will also be a meeting of the Bank of England on Thursday, February 03. How can it respond to the Americans? Of course, by a faster rate increase: according to a number of forecasts, the pound rate may be increased by another 0.25 bp, up to 0.50%.

For how long will the British currency have such support? Many analysts doubt that the actions of the Bank of England will meet market expectations, and that the regulator will act as aggressively as the Fed this year. Based on this, economists at Rabobank, the second largest bank in the Netherlands, do not exclude that the GBP/USD pair may fall below 1.3000 by the middle of the year.

As for the current situation, the level 1.3400 (range 1.3360-1.3415 to be exact) is a very strong support/resistance zone and can serve as a springboard for the pair to bounce up. This development is supported by 30% of experts. The next resistances are waiting for the pair at levels 1.3440, 1.3500-1.3525, 1.3575, 1.3650, 1.3700 and 1.3750.

70% of analysts vote for the further fall of the pair. Supports are located at 1.3360, then 1.3275, 1.3200, followed by a strong December trend reversal zone 1.3160-1.3185.

The indicators on D1 look like this: only 10% of the oscillators point to the north, the remaining 90% point to the south, of which 20% give signals that the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, all 100% look down.

In addition to the Bank of England meeting, we should pay attention to data on business activity (PMI) next week: in the manufacturing sector on Feb. 01, in the services sector on Feb. 03 and in the UK construction sector on Feb. 04.

USD/JPY: Yen Has Nothing to Answer

If the Bank of England has something to respond to the US Federal Reserve, nothing like this can be expected from the Bank of Japan with its forever negative (minus 0.1%) rate. The yen, as a safe-haven currency, is usually supported by investors running away from risky assets. But now the rising dollar and US Treasury bonds are a powerful obstacle in their way. And the Bank of Japan does not really need a strong national currency.

As a result, as most experts (60%) expected, the USD/JPY pair rushed north again. True, it failed to reach the high on January 04 at 116.35, but the rise still looks very impressive. If the pair was at the level of 113.46 on Monday, January 24, it reached the height of 115.68 by the end of the working week. The last chord of the five-day period was set at the level of 115.22.

At the time of writing, most indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, there are 90% of them (10% of them give signals that the pair is overbought), the remaining 10% are colored red. Among the trend indicators, 100% recommend buying. Experts agree with the indicators: 70% of them side with the bulls, 20% with the bears, 10% are neutral. Support levels are 115.00, 114.45, 114.00, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35.

Any serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan is not expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Calm After the Storm

If we talk about cryptocurrencies, nothing terrible happened for them at the January meeting of the Fed. It had long been known that the regulator would tighten monetary policy and reduce monetary injections into the economy. As well as the fact that it will raise interest rates. Yes, this will hit risky assets, but it will draw money from the stock market in the first place. It is possible that things will not reach cryptocurrencies, as a super-speculative asset at all: the volumes are too small.

The crypto market grew by leaps and bounds as the Fed flooded the fires of the pandemic with trillions of brand new freshly minted dollars. There will be no more inflow of this money, and it is probably not worth counting on a new crypto boom. Institutional investors will behave much more calmly, but they will not be in a hurry to part with their bitcoins and ethereums either. Everyone who wanted to sell them has already sold. Those who wanted to keep them, kept them as a long-term investment.

Of course, any surprises are possible in this industry: both pleasant and not so much so. In the meantime, the crypto market is recovering from the panic that arose before the Fed meeting. Having fallen on Monday, January 24 to $32.945, the BTC/USD pair grew a little and it is trading in the $37,000 zone on the evening of Friday, January 28 at the moment of writing this. The total market capitalization has risen from $1.51 trillion to $1.70 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown to only 24 points (11 points at the low of January 23), being stuck firmly in the Extreme Fear zone. So it is clearly premature to talk confidently even about the beginning of a recovery and a trend reversal. Moreover, the BTC/USD chart shows that the strong support that the pair relied on both in 2020 and 2021 is located in the $29,000-30,000 zone. So there is room to fall.

Goldbug and bitcoin skeptic Peter Schiff allowed the collapse of bitcoin below $10,000. But Mike Novogratz, the founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank, stood up for the flagship currency immediately, offering Schiff a $1 million bet. The banker promised to send these funds to charity or another purpose of the opponent's choice if BTC trades below $35,000 in a year.

At the same time, Novogratz believes that the bear market will be long enough, and therefore does not advise buying on drawdowns now. “It will be difficult for cryptocurrencies to start a rally until the stock market bottoms out. Nevertheless, digital assets have already experienced a significant sell-off and are beginning to receive support from buyers,” he explained.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book "Rich Dad Poor Dad", also recommends waiting with purchases, saying that he will buy more digital gold only if its price drops to $20,000. "Profits are made when you buy, not when you sell. Bitcoin is crashing. Great news. I bought BTC for $6,000 and $9,000. I will buy more if the price tests $20,000. The time to get rich is approaching,” he wrote.

Recall that Kiyosaki predicted a “giant stock market crash” last October and warned that the same fate awaits gold, silver, and bitcoin. This is exactly what we are seeing now.

Ton Weiss, a well-known trader, analyst and former vice president of JP Morgan Chase, does not rule out the completion of the bitcoin correction in the near future. According to him, the cryptocurrency has reached the 20-month moving average (MA), which is at the level of $34,000. Weiss claims that this is a "perfect opportunity" for a trend reversal and the asset's return to growth. According to the specialist, in the event of a rebound, the price of bitcoin will quickly return to the $40,000 level and consolidate above it.

Another cryptocurrency analyst, Nicholas Merten predicts that despite the current market conditions, bitcoin could rise almost 7 times to $200,000 by the end of the year. Merten stated on his DataDash YouTube channel (502,000 subscribers) that if bitcoin's capitalization stays above $600 billion, it will set the stage for the coin's bull run in the coming months.

The expert recalled that all rallies occur after corrections and are often spurred on by BTC purchases at heavily discounted prices. Understanding how big players buy is the key to navigating the highly volatile cryptocurrency markets, Merten says.

According to other market participants, bitcoin can visit the $30,000 area, and then it is likely to turn around. Charles Edwards, the founder of the crypto investment company Capriole, wrote that the signal of the NVT (Network Value to Transaction ratio) indicator shows that BTC is oversold: this situation is rare in the market. “We have entered an open buying zone,” Edwards commented on the current situation.

Recall that this indicator was proposed and is actively used by the well-known analyst Willy Woo. NVT is calculated by dividing bitcoin's market capitalization by its transaction volume (in USD) and is a popular metric to assess whether the coin is overbought or oversold.

Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, named two reasons for the current correction in the cryptocurrency market. The first of these is the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. The second is the imperfection and immaturity of the crypto industry. At the same time, the businessman believes that the current market conditions provide “an excellent entry point for institutional investors interested in cryptocurrencies, who have been on the sidelines so far.”

According to Saylor, a lot of institutional investors are now watching bitcoin and see that it is 40% below the all-time high and that it is consolidating. At the same time, they understand that bitcoin is supported by such serious investors as Bill Miller, regulators, senators and congressmen, as well as large public companies.

As for MicroStrategy itself, this software developer owns 124,391 BTC. The company has spent about $3.7 billion on the acquisition of cryptocurrency. Thus, the average purchase price is $30,100 per 1 coin. And if it falls below this level, it will result in multi-million or even billions in losses for the owners of MicroStrategy.

And now, a couple of soothing statements to conclude the review. The first is from Scott Melker, a trader, analyst and podcast host, who reminded his subscribers that there is nothing unusual about what is happening in the market now. “People have short memories. Bitcoin fell from $60,000 to $30,000 in 10 days in May. 10 DAYS!!! All this has already happened. And that was only 8 months ago. So why be so scared?" he wrote.

The second is from McDonald's fast-food chain, which offered owners of digital assets to get a job in the catering industry during the bearish trend. This is a joke of course. But, as they say, there is some truth in every joke. The McDonald's tweet was liked by the community and quickly gained almost 100,000 likes.



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 02, 2022, 01:31:43 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- According to Bloomberg, the residents of Russia possess a huge amount of digital assets worth about $214 billion. This estimate was obtained by analysing the IP addresses of users of the largest crypto exchanges. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China.
The Central Bank of Russia took the initiative to impose a total ban on everything related to this area on January 20, including the circulation and mining of cryptocurrencies, as well as organizing these operations in the country.
However, President Vladimir Putin, instead of a complete ban, supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance, which provides not for a ban on cryptocurrencies, but for the regulation of their circulation. The President expressed the opinion that the Central Bank should not stand in the way of technological progress. Moreover, Russia has certain competitive advantages, especially in mining, which include a surplus of electricity and well-trained personnel.

- Bitcoin is perceived as a “monetary good” and no altcoin can challenge that status for the foreseeable future. Fidelity Digital Assets analysts came to these conclusions. Experts called the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money in their study “Bitcoin First”. It is the most “secure, decentralized form of assets. Bitcoin has the scarcity and longevity of gold combined with the ease of use, storage and transportation of fiat,” they explained.

- The persistence of high volatility limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions. This is how JPMorgan analysts justified the decline in the fair, in their opinion, valuation of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000. The specialists noted that the current 50% pullback from the all-time high has highlighted the nature of the boom-bust cycle, which is an obstacle to adding BTC to the portfolios of large investors.
The JPMorgan model assumed that the volatility of bitcoin would converge with the volatility of gold and the alignment of their shares in investment portfolios. And now, bank analysts have admitted that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 was unrealistic. Therefore, they lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency to $38,000, writes Business Insider.
JPMorgan did not rule out a further decline in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of buyer surrender. “Open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicates less panic or liquidation of positions than last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors,” the specialists concluded in their report.

- Arizona (USA) Senate Member Wendy Rogers introduced a bill that would approve bitcoin as a transactional currency or a means of payment. According to the bill, the first cryptocurrency will be accepted to pay debts, taxes and government fees as well as other obligations. Rogers has also been noted for other initiatives. One of them suggests the possibility of the authorities paying salaries to their employees in cryptocurrency. The senator has also proposed not to levy taxes or fees for “the use of blockchain technology.”
All of these bills must be approved by the Arizona House of Representatives and Senate to be adopted.

- Bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025. This is the average forecast made by industry representatives during a roundtable discussion organized by the analytical website Finder.
The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating.

- Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino believes that despite a solid rebound from its 90-day low of $32,950, the first cryptocurrency is facing a strong resistance. When the price approaches $38,000, it stops because the resistance becomes too strong.
At the same time, according to Pizzino, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents.

- American Express, one of the most recognizable credit card operators, has lost ground in processed transaction volumes to the bitcoin network. This is evidenced by the data of the latest NYDIG report.
While the BTC network processed transactions for $3.0 trillion in 2021, for American Express the figure was $1.28 trillion, and this is the best figure in the history of the American corporation. Discover, the 4th largest card operator, posted a result of $0.504 billion, which is also an absolute maximum for the company.
Only two famous brands are ahead of bitcoin: Mastercard and VISA. Their result is $7.72 trillion and $13.5 trillion, respectively. However, the gap between them and the bitcoin is steadily shrinking.

- Global adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of bitcoin to $1 million. This opinion was expressed by the head of Circle, Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. He admits that he himself is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, the businessman prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society.

- But analysts at Goldman Sachs, one of the world's largest investment banks, do not share Aller's scenario. In their opinion, the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may, on the contrary, worsen the chances of its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will increase their correlation with traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies, as well as reduce their advantage as a diversifying asset in an investor's portfolio.
Moreover, according to Goldman Sachs, cryptocurrencies are unlikely to be able to avoid the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.

- Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls become bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks.
Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob.
However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, the current remark of Peter Brand is clearly not devoid of logic.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 03, 2022, 03:57:23 PM
January 2022 Results: Leaders Ignore Trading on EUR/USD

(https://i.imgur.com/aoTLj6g.jpg)

NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in the first month of 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in January was received by a client from Vietnam, account No.1467xxx, whose profit amounted to 49.180 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

The second place in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was taken by a client from China, account No. 1589XXX, who earned 39.151 USD on transactions primarily with the British pound (GBP/AUD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY), as well as with such pairs as EUR /NZD, EUR/AUD, AUD/JPY.

The third place on the January podium went to another representative of Vietnam (account No. 1605XXX), whose result 36.880 USD was also achieved through operations with gold (XAU/USD).

The NordFX passive investment services:

- CopyTrading still has an active supplier under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 138% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. Their second signal, KennyFXPRO Prismo 2K, started two months later, while its profitability has been 55% with a drawdown of 37%. All trades in both cases were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs.

We can also note the Hada signal this time, which has shown a profit of 53% in just 70 days of life with a drawdown of 21%.

The lifetime of the above-named signals is short, less than a year. In combination with a fairly serious maximum drawdown, this allows them to be classified as a group with a high degree of risk. But, of course, there are long-livers in the CopyTrading service. For example, signal MF989923. It has existed for almost 7 years, and it has shown an increase of 517% during this time. Note that this signal had serious drawdowns several times as well, reaching 66%. True, the last time this happened a long time ago, almost two years ago: in March 2020. But trading has since become much less aggressive and less profitable.

- As for the PAMM service, we have to mention the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO again. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 67% in exactly 1 year with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 16%.

Among PAMM accounts, the TranquilityFX - The Genesis v3 account attracts attention as well. It exists for 303 days and has brought a profit of 47% during this time with a drawdown of 16%. NKFX - Ninja 136 is similar to the two previous accounts as well. Its lifespan is just over 200 days, growth is 36%, maximum drawdown is less than 15%.

It should be noted that in most cases, both traders and signal providers and PAMM managers ignored such a popular pair as EUR/USD in their work, making transactions either with gold (XAU/USD), or with pairs GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY, NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest amount of commission, 7.716 USD, was accrued in January to a partner from China, account No. 1336xxx;
- next is a partner from India, account No.1593xxx, who received 5.256 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from Vietnam, account No. 1371ХХХ, who received 3.913 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 05, 2022, 12:39:20 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 07 - 11, 2022


EUR/USD: Another Surprise, from the ECB This Time

(https://i.imgur.com/FEatTU5.jpg)

It's hard to resist when you're attacked from both sides. The dollar received two powerful blows last week: one from the Bank of England, the second from the ECB, and could not resist them. The USD DXY index flew down. While it was at the level of 97.36 on January 28, it dropped to 95.14 on February 04. This is not a knockout of course, but a knockdown from which it will be difficult for the US currency to recover quickly.

So, the Bank of England raised the interest rate by another 25 basis points (bp) to 0.50%, which was expected. But what shocked the markets was a shift in the direction of the ECB's monetary policy. The market was waiting for the regulator to start discussing such changes towards the end of the year. But it turned out that this could happen much earlier. Maybe already in the spring.

The data on unemployment in the Eurozone exceeded all  Earnings-price ratioest expectations: its level fell to 7.0%. But this is not all either. The growth of consumer prices in January accelerated from 5% to 5.1% and renewed its historical high. This is despite the fact that many expected the opposite. For example, Bloomberg experts predicted a slowdown in inflation to 4.4%.

It is known that unemployment and inflation are the main factors that determine the monetary policy of regulators in the current environment. And if the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, stated until recently that her bank would not copy the actions of the Fed, she was forced to admit at a press conference on Thursday, February 03 that "the situation has really changed."

“Inflation is likely to remain high longer than initially expected,” said Ms Lagarde. “Compared to our December estimates, current inflation risks are biased upwards. especially in the short term”.

The head of the ECB did not repeat the mantra about the “extremely low probability” of a rate hike in 2022. And, although the key rate remained unchanged at 0% at the last meeting, it became known from informed sources that the bank's officials are already discussing the possibility of raising it at the end of this year. According to some experts, it could rise by as much as 40 or even 50 bp.

So, apparently, the European regulator is abandoning the policy of patience and, together with the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, joins the "hawk" race to tighten monetary policy. It is appropriate to draw an analogy between Christine Lagarde's current statement and what her American colleague Jerome Powell said in June 2021. The head of the Fed said something similar then, after which the dollar began to sharply gain strength and won 1135 points  back from the euro, lowering the EUR/USD pair from 1.2255 to 1.1120. Now it seems that it is time for the euro to recoup its losses.

In addition to the frontal blows from the Bank of England and the ECB, the US currency also received backstabs from the “native” Fed. At least six representatives of the US Central bank made comments last week, and none of them mentioned that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) could immediately raise rates by 50 bp at its meeting in March (although the market was waiting for this).

The result of all the events of the week, so painful for the dollar, was an impressive strengthening of the European currency. The EUR/USD pair has shown an active growth, which has not been seen since the beginning of the pandemic: it rose by 343 points in a week, from 1.1140 to 1.1483.

True, the dollar was slightly supported by statistics from the US at the very end of the working week, on Friday, February 04. Such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside agriculture (non-farm payrolls) was fixed at 467K, while the market expected it to fall to 150K. As a result, the dollar strengthened slightly, and the pair set the last chord at 1.1453.

Most of the indicators on D1 turned up by the end of the five-day period. Among the trend ones, there were 85% of them (15% are still colored red), among the oscillators - 80%, the remaining 20% took a neutral position. Among the experts, opinions are divided almost evenly, although the bulls have still got a slight advantage: 45% are in favor of continuing the uptrend, 35% are for moving down and 20% are for the sideways trend.

The nearest resistance is the highs of January 13 and February 04 in the zone of 1.1480, followed by 1.1525, 1.1560 and 1.1625. Supports are in zones and at levels 1.1365-1.1385, 1.1275, 1.1220, 1.1185 and Jan 28 low 1.1120.

As for the events of the upcoming week, the most important of them are related to inflation and will concern the consumer market. So, the values of the US Consumer Price Index (excluding food products and energy carriers) will become known on Thursday, February 10, and the values of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index of Germany and the Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan USA will be published on Friday, February 11.

GBP/USD: The Bank of England: Not a Dove Yet, No Longer a Hawk

Of course, the general weakening of the dollar affected the GBP/USD pair as well, which recorded the weekly high at 1.3627. However, as mentioned above, the increase in the interest rate by the Bank of England did not come as a surprise to anyone and had already taken into account by the market in quotations. In contrast to the statement of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, which produced the effect of a bombshell. As a result, the European currency gained a significant advantage over the British one, and the EUR/GBP pair rose by more than 2.2%, from 0.82843 to 0.84650. As for GBP/USD, it finished well below the local high, at 1.3528 for the same reason.

The bulls on the pound were also disappointed by disagreements among members of the Bank of England committee. Only 4 out of 9 voted to raise the rate by 50 bps. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, decided to raise rates by only 25 basis points, citing a slowdown in economic growth.

This regulator will apparently continue to act in an extremely balanced manner, which was confirmed by the chief economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill. He said in an interview with Reuters that the bank expects "further moderate tightening in the coming months if everything goes as planned" and that "you need to be careful in setting the rate level."

Strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank say this sneaky stance limits the prospects for a stronger British currency. MUFG does not expect a steady growth of the pound and believes that if the movement of GBP/USD to 1.4000 continues, the pair will encounter many pits and bumps along the way. And their colleagues from Scotiabank look in the opposite direction at all. In their opinion, due to the inability to gain a foothold above 1.3600, the British currency is now at risk of falling to 1.3400 initially and possibly to 1.3200 in a relatively short term.

The majority of experts (55%) are still set for further growth of the GBP/USD pair at the moment, the remaining 45% have taken the opposite position. The indicators on D1 look like this: 45% of oscillators point north, 10% point south, the remaining 45% remain neutral. Among trend indicators, 40% look up, 60% look down. Supports are located at 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3365, next strong support is 100 pips lower. Levels and resistance zones: 1.3570-1.3600, 1.3640, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

Highlights of the coming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Thursday, February 10, and the release of UK GDP and industrial production data on Friday, February 11.

USD/JPY: Calm, and Calm Again

While most G10 Central banks are either raising rates or becoming more aggressive (like the ECB), the BOJ's slogan is still "calm and calm again". Safe haven should remain as quiet as possible with its perpetually negative (minus 0.1%) interest rate.

It is already clear that, since inflation in Japan does not show signs of approaching the target level of 2% set by the Japanese regulator, its actions will lag behind the actions of other Central banks. And this, according to analysts at CIBC Capital Markets, will continue to put pressure on the yen.

At some point, rumors began circulating in the market that the Bank of Japan could move to normalize its monetary policy this year. However, the Bank's statement released after the January meeting made it clear that this is nothing more than speculation. Since central bank Governor Haruhiko Kuroda keeps saying that it is far from reaching the inflation target of 2.0%, his organization is quite comfortable with the weak yen.

What has been happening to the USD/JPY pair over the past four months can be considered a sideways trend with a predominance of bullish sentiment. So the general weakening of the dollar practically did not help the Japanese currency last week: having fallen on February 02 to the level of 114.14, the pair returned to the same place where it started, to the zone of 115.20, by the end of the week.

At the time of writing, the majority of experts (55%) expect the USD/JPY pair to continue moving towards a multi-year high of 116.35, recorded on January 04. The remaining 45% believe that the weakened dollar will still put downward pressure on it. All 100% of the indicators are green, although 15% of the oscillators give signals of the pair being overbought.

Support levels and zones are 115.00, 114.55-114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70. The nearest resistance zone is 115.50-115.70, the nearest serious target of the bulls is a new five-year high at 116.35.

No serious macroeconomic statistics from Japan are  expected either last or next week. We only note that Friday, February 11 is a day off in Japan. The country celebrates Kenko Kinen No Hi, the National Foundation Day. It is believed that the first emperor of Japan, Jimmu, ascended the throne on this day in 660 BC and founded the Imperial Dynasty of Japan and the State of Japan.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Who Is in Charge in the BTC/USD Pair? Answer: US Federal Reserve

Whatever crypto enthusiasts say, bitcoin has long ceased to be an independent asset. And  the decisive factor intheBTC/USD pair is the dollar. And the strength or weakness of the US currency depends, in turn, on the policy of the US Federal Reserve (and partly on the actions of other Central banks).

The same crypto enthusiasts crave an inflow of funds from institutional investors like manna from heaven. And the latter are waiting for the regulators to establish clear rules governing the work with digital assets. Therefore, the movement of quotes of leading cryptocurrencies will depend (and already depends) not on the mood of millions of small players, but on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. Just look at the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. This link is becoming more and more rigid and is determined by the risk sentiment of large investors.

Of course, short-term fluctuations in BTC/USD can be affected by events such as bad weather that has suspended miners in Texas. But the main trends are set not by them, but by the actions of regulators.

Bitcoin is now perceived as a "money commodity". Analysts of Fidelity Digital Assets came to this conclusion, calling the first cryptocurrency not only a technology, but also a perfect form of money. And what kind of government will allow the flow of "perfect" money to pass it by? And there may be two solutions: either to ban them completely, as in China, or to take them under strict control.

The Central Bank of Russia wanted to follow the Chinese version. But Russia's President Vladimir Putin supported the proposal of the Ministry of Finance not to ban, but to regulate the cryptocurrency market, including their circulation and mining. This is a very serious decision, because, according to Bloomberg, residents of Russia possess a huge number of digital assets worth about $214 billion. In addition, according to the University of Cambridge, Russia became the third country in the world in bitcoin mining (11.23%) in the summer of 2021, after the USA (35.4%) and Kazakhstan (18.1%), where many miners migrated after the ban in China.

MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor also believes that the current problems in the cryptocurrency market are caused, first of all, by the non-transparent regulation and regulatory uncertainty of the crypto industry. According to Saylor, many institutional investors are now tracking bitcoin, however, they are in no hurry to invest in it.

According to JPMorgan analysts, the persistence of high volatility, which limits the adoption of bitcoin by institutions, is also an obstacle.

Interestingly, analysts at another major investment bank, Goldman Sachs, agree that cryptocurrencies are unlikely to escape the influence of macroeconomic forces, such as the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. However, they believe that the mass adoption of cryptocurrency may not improve, but, on the contrary, worsen the chances for its long-term growth. Experts argue that the global popularity of digital assets will further increase their correlation with the traditional ones. This, in turn, will reduce the volatility of cryptocurrencies and reduce both their speculative attractiveness and their advantages as a diversifying asset in investor portfolios.

As for the current situation, despite a solid bounce off its 90-day low of $32,950, the main cryptocurrency has been unable to overcome the strong resistance in the $38,000-39,000 zone for a long time. However, the BTC/USD pair went on a breakthrough and reached $40,880 at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, February 04.

The total market capitalization for the week has grown slightly: $1.85 trillion compared to $1.70 trillion seven days ago, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has deepened even more into the zone of Extreme Fear, falling from 24 to 20 points.

The latest JPMorgan report notes that “open interest in futures and the volume of exchange balances indicate less panic or liquidation of positions than in last May, especially in relation to large crypto investors”. At the same time, the bank’s specialists do not exclude a further decrease in bitcoin quotes, even in the absence of signs of capitulation of buyers. They seriously lowered the fair value of the first cryptocurrency from $150,000 to $38,000.

According to Business Insider, JPMorgan's model assumed that bitcoin's volatility would converge with gold's volatility and equalize their shares in investment portfolios. Now, the bank’s analysts have acknowledged that their previous forecast that the bitcoin-to-gold volatility ratio would drop to around 2/1 by the end of 2022 proved to be unrealistic, leading to the downgrade.

Peter Brandt, a well-known Wall Street trader with 45 years of experience, notes that most crypto enthusiasts are now in an extremely bearish mood. Most of the participants in the Laser Eyes flash mob are confident that the price of bitcoin will fall below $30,000 in the near future. According to the expert, this may be a signal to buy the first cryptocurrency. “When the bulls wear laser eyes, it’s time to sell. When bulls turn bears, is it time to buy?” Brandt asks.

Recall that the “Laser Eyes” flash mob started on Twitter in February 2021, when bitcoin reached a local high of $58,300. After that, many supporters of the first cryptocurrency, in anticipation of its growth to $100,000, posted photos with “laser eyes” as their profile avatar. Co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano, TV presenter Max Kaiser, CEO of Binance crypto exchange Changpeng Zhao, Tesla CEO Elon Musk and other influencers were among the participants in the flash mob.

However, instead of rising to $100,000, the flagship cryptocurrency collapsed to $29,000 by June. So, Peter Brand's current remark about "laser eyes" in bears clearly deserves attention.

It is also worth paying close attention to the results of the round table organized by the Finder analytical website. The discussion was attended by 33 fintech experts, half of whom do not expect the cryptocurrency price to fall even against the backdrop of the upcoming increase in US interest rates. The average forecast given by the participants of the table says that bitcoin could soar to a high of $93,717 this year and is expected to be worth $76,360 by the end of 2022 and close to $193,000 by the end of 2025.

Vanessa Harris, director of the cryptocurrency startup Permission, was among the most optimistic participants in the discussion. She predicts that BTC will peak at $220,000 this year. A much more modest figure was voiced by the founder of the CoinFlip bitcoin ATM network, Daniel Polotsky. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency is unlikely to exceed $60,000 in 2022 as the bubbles created by the US Federal Reserve during the pandemic are now deflating.

Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino predicts BTC growth as well. According to his forecast, bitcoin will still enter an accumulation period in the medium term, when whales and investors with smart money will begin to invest in cryptocurrency, waiting for its next bullish trend. This may take a whole year, during which the BTC rate will rise. According to Pizzino's forecast, bitcoin is able to reach a new price high in the second half of 2022, but this will not be a sharp upward movement but a series of ascents.

Finally, the most cosmic forecast was given by Circle CEO Jeremy Aller in an interview with Business Insider. In his opinion, the worldwide adoption of bitcoin will certainly contribute to the growth of this coin to $1 million. The businessman admitted that he is not a "bitcoin maximalist", but he still believes in new cryptocurrency highs. At the same time, he prefers not to compare bitcoin with gold, believing that the digital asset is much more efficient than precious metals. According to the head of Circle, gold as money is simply useless in modern society.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 09, 2022, 04:51:19 PM
NordFX Affiliate Program and Social Trading Network Recognized as the Best in 2021

(https://i.imgur.com/ylS7bHQ.jpg)

The Expert Council of the Forex-Awards.com named the Affiliate Program of the brokerage company NordFX and its Social Trading Network as the best at the end of 2021.

The Forex-Awards.com Expert Council is a unique team of professionals headquartered in Hong Kong. Based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trading community, the Expert Council honors the most remarkable solutions and innovations in almost 30 nominations and rewards market participants featuring breakthrough initiatives and excellent results in the Forex industry. A convincing victory was won by the brokerage company NordFX in two of them in 2021.

The victory in the Best Affiliate Program nomination was won thanks to NordFX's multi-level Flexible Partnership Program, which offers its IB partners payments up to 70% of the spread and most advanced CPA up to $700. Monthly monitoring showed that the total earnings of TOP-3 IB partners amounted to $351.853 in 2021. That is, the average earnings of each of them was $9.773 per month.

In total, over $30,000,000 has been paid to all IB partners of the brokerage company during the program's operation. At the same time, it must be taken into account that ΙΒ earnings are withdrawn instantly and without any restrictions.

NordFX Social Trading Network offers unique advantages to both novice traders and passive investors. Using Copy Trading and PAMM services, they get the opportunity to make a profit even with no independent trading experience and without any serious time spent. Experienced traders get additional earning opportunities by offering their services as signal providers and account managers.

In addition, the victory in the Best Social Trading Network nomination was facilitated by the wide information and educational work carried out by NordFX in various languages in all major social networks and hundreds of specialized Internet resources, forums and blogs.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 09, 2022, 05:07:11 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The US authorities announced the detention of persons they consider involved in the hacking of the Bitfinex exchange in 2016, and the confiscation of $3.6 billion worth of bitcoins stolen from it. According to a press release from the US Department of Justice, the accused are the spouses: a 34-year-old Russian and US citizen Ilya Lichtenstein and a 31-year-old Heather Morgan. “According to court documents, Liechtenstein and Morgan allegedly colluded to launder proceeds of 119,754 BTC stolen from Bitfinex after the platform’s systems were hacked and more than 2,000 unauthorized transactions were performed,” the agency’s website says.
Approximately 25,000 of these stolen bitcoins have been withdrawn from a Liechtenstein-controlled wallet through a complex money laundering process over the past five years, according to investigators. The rest of the stolen coins, more than 94,000 BTC, remained in the wallet, which allowed special agents to seize them legally. Representatives of the Ministry of Justice stressed that this is the largest case of cryptocurrency confiscation in the history of the department.
According to the latest information, the court of the Southern District of New York released the spouses on bail of $8 million, and the seized bitcoins were returned to the Bitfinex exchange.

- A trader nicknamed macromule shared a trading algorithm that could bring about 1000% per annum. The signal to open a position is the tweets of the Bitcoin skeptic and gold supporter Peter Schiff about the first cryptocurrency. The user recommended buying BTC every time after the next such tweet and closing the position after 72 hours. According to macromule, this strategy could have made 203 trades since last May, of which 65% would bring an average profit of 3%.

- Sean Farrell, an analyst at the financial research company FSINsight, believes that the
price of the first cryptocurrency is likely to reach $200,000 in the second half of 2022. According to his observations, the correlation of bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole with the shares of technology companies increased in the last quarter of last year. At the same time, according to Farrell, bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins remains unshakable and its price, despite a “shaky start” in early 2022, could eventually reach $200,000.
The FSInsight report also states that the ethereum platform is undervalued and the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization may reach $12,000 this year. The analyst is optimistic about the transition of ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. And if the process goes smoothly, capital inflows into the ecosystem will increase, “regardless of bitcoin’s performance.”

- The CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, Johnny Liu, shared his vision of the trends in the digital asset industry and focused on the decrease in the share of BTC relative to the entire crypto market. “Bitcoin dominance index is now 42%. Most innovative projects are launched on ethereum, and I believe that it will pull ahead in the long term,” Liu said.
As for regulatory issues, the head of KuCoin recommends patience. The authorities will gradually deal with the benefits and risks of cryptocurrencies. According to him, there is a trend in the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies at the state level, governments are exchanging experience in their legalization, so any restrictions are only a temporary measure.

- Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, expressed the opposite point of view. He believes that cryptocurrencies are too vulnerable, they are easy to trace, and it is likely that this asset class will be banned by the governments of a number of countries. Given the small size of the cryptocurrency market, Dalio said, “it gets too much attention.” He confirmed that he invested in ethereum in December 2021, but digital assets make up a "negligible percentage" of his personal investment portfolio.
The head of Bridgewater Associates also advised to create an investment portfolio that is diversified across asset classes and markets. At the same time, the billionaire noted that "cash is garbage."

— Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and the founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, said in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine that the first cryptocurrency was superior to fiat. “Anything we have in fiat can be completely seized by the authorities,” he noted and explained that the decentralized nature of the first cryptocurrency makes it much more difficult to ban or control it. Therefore, “the government is not interested in facilitating the use of bitcoin.”
He called the limited emission of 21 million BTC an additional advantage of the first cryptocurrency, which allows using this cryptocurrency as a store of value in the long term. “But don’t expect to easily make money on it in 30 days,” the billionaire warned.

- Cryptocurrency trader Dave the Wave believes that BTC could break the $100,000 mark at the end of this year or early 2023, while his scenario assumes a “decent correction”. The trader notes that the cyclical curve pointing to $100,000 should not be interpreted as a support level, but as an average exchange rate trajectory that bitcoin can follow roughly.
In regard to the near future, Dave the Wave noted that while bitcoin's monthly chart may still look bearish, certain bullish signals are emerging on the weekly chart. In addition, bitcoin managed to break out of the narrow downward channel.

- North Korea continues to develop its nuclear programs, and funds received from attacks on cryptocurrency exchanges have become an important source of their financing. This is reported by Reuters with reference to a UN report.
The authors of the report refer to Chainalysis data, according to which cybercriminals from the DPRK carried out at least seven attacks on cryptocurrency platforms last year, stealing assets worth about $400 million. Most of the funds were stolen in hacks that targeted at least three crypto exchanges in North America, Europe and Africa. According to Chainalysis, North Korea controls $170 million in the current balances of exchanges, but these amounts have not yet been laundered.
Recall that Pentagon officials previously claimed that more than 6,000 hackers around the world are working for North Korea.

- The author of the book The Ascent of Money, historian and economist Niall Ferguson said that if the historical dynamics of BTC fluctuations repeat, the price of the first cryptocurrency will fall by November 2022 to a low of $11,515. This is 83% below the historic peak in bitcoin value reached in November 2021.
At the same time, Ferguson disagrees categorically with the opinion of the Nobel Prize winner in economics Paul Krugman, who draws a parallel between the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the US real estate market in 2007-2008. Which, as you know, was followed by the global economic crisis.
Niall Ferguson believes that “it is not worth waiting for a polar vortex or a giant ice cyclone. However, this does not mean that crypto winter will bring less cold.” The crypto skeptic clarified that a fall in the value of bitcoin to the lows of the 2010s is unlikely, since BTC has become a larger asset than it was ten years ago, and its market capitalization has grown to almost $1.0 trillion in 2021.

- According to Robert Breedlove, CEO of Parallax Digital, the price of bitcoin will increase over the next few years, and its market capitalization will exceed $5.0 trillion.
Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high at the moment. And according to the businessman, the same thing can happen with the dollar as with the currency of Venezuela. The US dollar will hyperinflate by 2035. At this point, the price of bitcoin in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, 10 million USD per coin.
In terms of downside risks to BTC, the world's largest cryptocurrency faces few existential threats, and only finite probability or black swan events can significantly hurt its price. It could be a cryptographic hack, it could be some kind of cosmological event, an electromagnetic pulse could destroy all the electronic equipment in the world. However, the biggest threat to bitcoin comes from regulators, according to Robert Breedlove.
The authorities will try to make life as difficult as possible for cryptocurrencies, as a class that poses a threat to their financial systems, which are already under heavy debt pressure. Therefore, it is highly likely that the authorities will use all their tools to regulate digital assets as much as possible.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 12, 2022, 12:04:43 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 14 - 18, 2022


EUR/USD: Tsunami Due to US Inflation

Ancient Greeks began to declare a truce during the Olympic Games more than 2,800 years ago. It seems that the EUR/USD bulls and bears have decided to adopt this tradition during the current Winter Olympics in Beijing. We observed a complete lull for at least the first half of the week, and the pair moved eastward under slight pressure in a narrow channel not exceeding 60 points, 1.1400-1.1460.

This calm was interrupted by a small tsunami that swept on Thursday, February 10 after the latest US inflation data was published. Consumer prices grew by 7.5%, while core inflation reached 6.0% (against 5.5% a month earlier). Both values are the highest for the last 40 years, and this has not been observed since 1982. And it scared the markets.

To be completely accurate, it was not the numbers themselves that frightened them, but the possible reaction of the US Federal Reserve to them. Investors were concerned that the US Central bank would act even more aggressively than expected in order to curb inflation. The probability that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will raise interest rates by 50 basis points (bp) in March has jumped to 80%. There have also been rumors that the rate could be raised as many as seven times in 2022. Analysts at Goldman Sachs predict that federal borrowing costs could rise to 2.0% by early 2023.

As a result of the panic, the dollar began to rise, while stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) and the EUR/USD pair rolled down. However, the situation changed very quickly: the markets were afraid of the general economic risks caused by such a strong increase in consumer prices. And, having bounced off the level of 1.1374, the pair soared up by almost 120 points, to a height of 1.1494. After that, it changed the course again by 180 degrees.

There were two reasons for this reversal, the third in a row. The first was those overall economic risks, on the contrary, could push the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more vigorously. The second reason was Christine Lagarde. The head of the ECB said last week that a sharp tightening of monetary policy will have a negative effect on the Eurozone economy. This suggests the conclusion that this regulator is still not ready to raise rates, even despite high inflation rates. And according to forecasts, the first rate increase by 25 bp. can only be expected in December 2022.

Divergence in the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed and the ECB has always been good for the dollar. The same happened this time: the EUR/USD pair flew down again without reaching the height of 1.1500, reaching the local bottom at the level of 1.1329. As for the final chord of the week, it sounded at the height of 1.1340.

Taking into account the dynamics of the last two weeks, the readings of indicators on D1 are as follows at the time of writing the forecast on the evening of Friday, February 11: 65% of oscillators are colored green, the remaining 35% are neutral. As for trend indicators, only 25% are colored green, the remaining 75% are red. As for the experts, of course, all of them will pick up signals from the US Federal Reserve, primarily regarding how much the rate will be raised at the FOMC meeting in March. But it is already now that 55% of them are voting for the strengthening of the US currency and the movement of the EUR/USD pair to the south. 30% vote for an uptrend, and 15% of analysts predict a sideways movement of the pair.

The nearest resistance is 1.1370, followed by 1.1415, 1.1480-1.1525, 1.1560 and 1.1625. Supports in zones and at levels 1.1275-1.1315, 1.1220, 1.1185 and January 28 low 1.1120.

As for the upcoming week, Eurozone GDP data will be published on Tuesday, February 15. High volatility can be expected due to the release of the next portion of data on the US consumer market the next day, on Wednesday, February 16. The publication of the February FOMC meeting minutes will also cause unconditional interest on this day.

GBP/USD: The Trend Is Rising. Still Rising.

While the ECB is lagging behind the Fed, the Bank of England is so far ahead, raising interest rates faster than its peers across the Atlantic. Therefore, unlike the euro, the British pound managed to hold its ground so far last week, finishing the five-day period at 1.3551. The key word here is "so far": "so far ahead" and "managed so far." The superiority of the pound over the dollar is very shaky and it can quickly start retreating.

The main factors that could force the Bank of England to stop raising the rate, leaving it at a low level, are weak GDP and labor market growth, as well as low levels of consumer spending. According to the data published on Friday, February 11, the UK's GDP, instead of the expected 1.1%, grew by only 1.0% in the Q4 2021. And the situation in the labor market and the consumer marke will become known next week: statistics on the unemployment rate will be released on February 15, and that on the level of prices in the United Kingdom - on February 16.

When predicting the upcoming steps of the British regulator, it is appropriate to recall that only 4 out of 9 members of the Bank of England committee voted for a rate increase by 50 bps at the last meeting. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, citing a slowdown in economic growth, decided to raise the rate by only 25 basis points.

The fact that this regulator will continue to act very carefully, which was confirmed by the Bank of England chief economist Hugh Pill. He said in an interview with Reuters that the bank expects "further moderate tightening in the coming months if everything goes as planned" and that "one needs to be careful in setting the rate level."

At the moment, most experts (60%) are Currency carry trade on the strengthening of the dollar, believing that the GBP/USD pair will go down in the near future. The opposite position is taken by 30% of analysts, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Indicators on D1 look as follows: 90% of oscillators point to the north (10% of them are in the overbought zone), 10% look to the south. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces is almost the same, 85/15%. Supports are located at 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3365, the next strong support is 100 points lower. The resistance levels are 1.3585, 1.3600-1.3625, 1.3700, 1.3750, 1.3835 and 1.3900.

USD/JPY: The Pair Storms a Five-Year High Again

The correlation between US Treasuries and USD/JPY is not a secret to anyone. If the yield on US bills grows, so does the dollar against the yen. And the Japanese currency received a double blow last week: both the yield on 10-year treasury bonds, which reached peak levels since August 2019, and the USD DXY index, which soared sharply after the events described above on February 10, rose. As a result, the pair retested the multi-year high of 116.35, recorded on January 04, 2022. However, it failed to break this record, and completed the working week at 115.30.

Currently, most experts (60%) expect the USD/JPY pair to try again to update this high and rise to the point where it has not been seen since January 2017. All 100% of oscillators on D1 and 80% of trend indicators support this development. The nearest resistance zone is 115.70. The remaining 40% of experts and 20% of trend indicators side with the bears. Support levels are at 115.00 followed by 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70.

Japan's GDP (Q4) data, which will be made public on Tuesday, February 15, may be able to provide some assistance to the yen. According to forecasts, the country's Gross Domestic Product may grow from minus 0.9% to plus 1.4% during the quarter. Although, in the current post-COVID situation, such economic growth may, on the contrary, play against its national currency, confirming the correctness of the super-dove policy of the Bank of Japan, which has frozen the interest rate at minus 0.1% for a long time.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Correction or Reversal?

(https://i.imgur.com/6eOKn8m.jpg)

The question of what we have seen the last three weeks, just a correction to a downtrend or the beginning of a new rise, remains open. Cryptocurrency quotes are going up along with the S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices, and even slightly ahead of them.

Something similar could be observed a few months ago. But then, digital currencies outperformed stocks by almost two months with the transition from growth to collapse. The BTC/USD pair reached a high on November 10, 2021, after which it turned south. As for the S&P500, its high was on January 04, 2022. And this is logical: despite the correlation, the stock market is still much more stable than the cryptocurrency market. But both of them are very dependent on the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (and, in part, on the actions of other Central banks).

The stimulus program that kicked off the printing press flooded the US economy with cheap dollars and boosted risky assets. The Fed is currently tightening its policy. Based on this logic, we can predict a further decline in investors' interest primarily in cryptocurrencies.

We have already said that the movement of crypto quotes will depend in the near future (and already depends) on the mood of just a few governments and Central banks. But the expert community has not yet come to a consensus as to what their attitude will be.

For example, Johnny Liu, CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, has taken the “bright side”, believing that the authorities will gradually understand the advantages of cryptocurrencies. According to him, there is a trend in the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies at the state level, governments are exchanging experience in their legalization, so any restrictions are only a temporary measure.

The opposite view was expressed by the billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio, who believes that this asset class is likely to be banned by the governments of a number of countries.

Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest people in Mexico and founder of the Grupo Salinas group of companies, also believes that governments are not interested in facilitating the use of bitcoin, since the decentralized nature of the first cryptocurrency makes it much more difficult to control its turnover.

The same opinion is shared by Parallax Digital CEO Robert Breedlove, who said that the authorities will try to make life as difficult as possible for cryptocurrencies, as a class that poses a threat to their financial systems. To do this, they will use all their tools, aiming to regulate digital assets as much as possible. This is what we have seen lately in countries such as China or Russia.

Some optimism is caused by the fact that quite a lot of representatives of large businesses already side with digital assets, recognizing the merits of cryptocurrencies to one degree or another. Of course, not all of them are ready to invest serious capital in this market right now. The aforementioned billionaire Ray Dalio, while stating that “cash is trash,” admitted that digital assets make up a “tiny percentage” of his personal investment portfolio. And that in general, given the small size of the cryptocurrency market, it "is given too much attention."

In terms of market size, Robert Breedlove believes that the market capitalization of bitcoin will increase dramatically over the next few years and exceed $5.0 trillion. Inflation in the US is at a 40-year high at the moment. And according to the head of Parallax Digital, the same thing can happen with the dollar as with the currency of Venezuela. The US currency will hyperinflate by 2035, at which point the price of BTC in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, or 10 million USD per coin. That is, the Fed's printing press can provide tremendous support to bitcoin. But the biggest threat to it, according to Robert Breedlove, comes from the same regulator.

All indicators of the crypto market look much more modest at the time of writing the review on the evening of Friday, February 04.  The total market capitalization is still slightly closer to $2.0 trillion and is at the level of $1.90 trillion ($1.85 trillion a week ago), the Bitcoin Dominance Index is 42.46%. The BTC/USD pair is trading in the $42,500 zone, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has left the Extreme Fear zone and, having gone up sharply, reached 50 points, which corresponds to the neutral state of the market.

A number of experts monitoring the dynamics of supply and demand for bitcoin are alarmed by the weak base for the current growth of the coin. As a result, in their opinion, the BTC/USD pair may return to the $40,000 zone within a month, and then fall even lower, to $29,000, in the medium term.

An even more pessimistic forecast was given by the author of the book "The Ascent of Money", historian of economics Niall Ferguson. He believes that if the historical dynamics of BTC fluctuations is repeated, the price of the first cryptocurrency will fall to a low of $11,515 by November 2022. This is 83% below the historic peak in bitcoin value reached in November 2021.

At the same time, Ferguson disagrees categorically with the opinion of the Nobel Prize winner in economics Paul Krugman, who draws a parallel between the volatility of the cryptocurrency market and the collapse of the US real estate market in 2007-2008. Which, as you know, was followed by the global economic crisis.

Niall Ferguson believes that “it is not worth waiting for a polar vortex or a giant ice cyclone. And a drop in the value of bitcoin to the lows of the 2010s is unlikely. However, this does not mean that crypto winter will bring less cold.”

Of course, there are much more optimistic forecasts. According to Sean Farrell, an analyst at financial research firm FSInsight, bitcoin’s dominance over altcoins will remain unshakable and its price, despite a “shaky start” in January, could reach $200,000 in the second half of 2022.

The FSInsight report also states that the ethereum platform is undervalued and the second largest cryptocurrency by capitalization may reach $12,000 this year. Sean Farrell is optimistic about the transition of ethereum to the Proof-of-Stake algorithm. And if the process goes smoothly, capital inflows into the ecosystem will increase, “regardless of bitcoin’s performance.” And the CEO of the KuCoin crypto exchange, Johnny Liu, believes that since most innovative projects are launched on the ethereum, it will break ahead of BTC in the long run.

The fact that the BTC/USD pair could overcome the $100,000 mark at the end of this year or at the beginning of 2023 is also indicated by the forecast of a crypto trader nicknamed Dave the Wave. However, this scenario also implies a “decent correction”. The trader notes that the $100,000 cyclical curve should be interpreted not as a support level, but as an average price trajectory that bitcoin can roughly follow.

In regard to the near future, Dave the Wave noted that while bitcoin's monthly chart may still look bearish, certain bullish signals are emerging on the weekly chart. In addition, bitcoin managed to break out of the narrow downward channel, which also indicates an upcoming increase.

And at the end of the review, our traditional heading of crypto life hacks. This time we will mention a trader nicknamed macromule who shared a very interesting trading algorithm. According to this trader, the signal to open a position is the tweets of the bitcoin skeptic and gold supporter Peter Schiff about the first cryptocurrency. The user recommended buying BTC every time after the next such tweet and closing the position after 72 hours. According to macromule, this strategy could have made 203 trades since last May, of which 65% 65% would have been in positive territory and brought about 1,000% per annum income.

Of course, we cannot recommend using this "strategy". But if someone still wants to test it, they can do it on a demo account without risking real money.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 16, 2022, 03:29:05 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/CpJFCmp.jpg)

- Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, called $200,000 a target mark for bitcoin in an interview with CNBC and explained what facilitates its achievement. According to the analyst, the total net worth of US households exceeds $141 trillion. The Fed's monetary policy leads to the fact that people are guaranteed to lose money on investing in bonds over the next decade. Lee expects an influx of speculative capital into cryptocurrency that could be “huge”, in this regard.
The high price of this asset is an obstacle to the mass adoption of bitcoin, in his opinion. Therefore, Tom Lee has supported the idea of switching to Satoshi, a millionth of BTC.

- The name of Satoshi Nakamoto also made it onto The Guardian pages. British crypto investor Anthony Welch bought Lataro Island in the Pacific Ocean (Vanuatu) with an area of 300 hectares and renamed it Satoshi. According to the newspaper, he plans to build a smart city there for supporters of digital assets.
According to the publication, Welch has been living on the island for the past 12 years with his partner Teresa. They expect 21,000 crypto investors from all over the world to join them soon. “Yes, we already have an island. Yes, we can develop as advertised. Yes, the government supports our plan. Yes, our team has relevant experience,” the project description says.
Candidates wishing to live on the island will receive an NFT token that will grant them Satoshi Island citizenship. In addition, all applicants will also have to obtain Vanuatu citizenship, which will cost them $130,000.

- According to the analytical company ESET, NFTs have become one of the main mechanisms for the distribution of malware for hidden mining or theft of cryptocurrency wallets in 2021. Most often, hackers put viruses into gaming NFTs that allegedly contain superpowers or rare weapons. Tools for crypto jacking, which allows for hidden mining, are implemented by attackers using various applications. Previously, the main sources of such viruses were torrent resources and Growth stock and Currency Trading Technique sites.

- Legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners Bill Miller, speaking to CNBC, called bitcoin insurance against financial disasters and said that he still holds a significant part of the capital in the first cryptocurrency. He explained that he invested only a few percent of his fortune in digital assets, which then, as the cryptocurrency market grew, turned into half of his personal funds.
According to Miller, the thesis about the lack of intrinsic value of bitcoin is erroneous. “It's like an insurance policy. You don't want your house to burn down, and you don't want to get into a terrible accident, but you pay for insurance every year in case it happens,” explained the billionaire. He also likened the digital asset to collectibles like baseball cards and Picasso paintings.

- The Russian authorities unanimously refused bitcoin as a means of payment. The Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance of the country have brought together their positions on the development of cryptocurrencies. The parties agreed that cryptocurrencies will not receive the status of a means of payment in Russia. However, their purchase, exchange and sale are subject to regulation.

- Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson believes that BTC will not be able to become a global reserve currency due to the energy costs of mining, various ecosystem flaws, and inconsistency with current industry standards. But his ADA cryptocurrency is quite suitable for this role. “Imagine that you are selling paintings, one of which you have to draw by hand and another with a machine. Both of them look the same and are in the same demand. So, you're just spending a thousand times more effort.

- Analyst Willy Woo believes that bitcoin will rise over the next five years. In his opinion, the future of the US dollar in terms of inflation has not yet been determined, and the capitalization of bitcoin is consolidating now in the $1 trillion zone. Overcoming this mark will give the coin greater stability. Further growth to the gold capitalization of almost $11 trillion will be relatively smooth, after which it will slow down. As for the final figure, Willy Woo believes that the capitalization of bitcoin could eventually grow to $40 trillion.
The deviation of the BTC price from the trend line occurred, according to Woo, due to the fact that the market was diluted due to the presence of other digital assets. Ethereum was launched in 2015, and as a result, there was a significant deviation in the direct trend line of bitcoin. And the line deviated even more in 2021 due to several thousand “shitcoins”.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten believes that bitcoin is showing signs of an upcoming rally, and the bulls have a chance to beat the bears. According to him, bitcoin has not gone into a bear market, and the recent stagnation should not be confusing. “This is a really great signal,” says Merten, “Bitcoin doesn’t create lower highs, they are relatively constant, but the lows are getting higher. The previous resistance level becomes an upward support. Investors are ready to overpay, which indicates the market is ready to return to the formation of another uptrend.”
According to the analyst’s forecasts, “Bitcoin’s capitalization could potentially reach $4 trillion in October-December 2022, that is, the asset will show a 220% increase compared to the previous record high. The previous rally was up 392% and it was up 359% earlier.

- Jurrien Timmer, Global Macroeconomics Director at one of the largest asset management companies, Fidelity Investments, is confident that the value of the first cryptocurrency will repeat the growth of the Apple's market value. “I compared the network effect of bitcoin to the network effect of Apple computers. As Apple's earnings increase, its share price rises exponentially. I have reason to believe that bitcoin is following the same path. The price of this cryptocurrency will only increase as demand increases.”
BTC benefits from its strong difference from all other crypto assets, the expert believes. “Perhaps other digital currencies will look better against the background of bitcoin due to better scalability, but at the same time, they are likely to be less decentralized. For me, bitcoin is like gold, and other cryptocurrencies are more like venture capital.”
Recall that Timmer said last October that the value of BTC will reach $100,000 by 2023.

- A few days after the United Nations said that North Korea hacked cryptocurrency exchanges on several continents last year, Pyongyang hit back. The DPRK Ministry of Foreign Affairs has accused the United States of being a wiretapping empire, a hacker king and a [expert] country when it comes to covert thefts.
The Foreign Ministry statement also claimed that the accusations of stealing the cryptocurrency were a kind of “fabrication that only the United States could invent, with their rejection of North Korea.”
Pyongyang added that all this was evidenced by revelations made by former US intelligence agent Edward Snowden, who said that US intelligence agencies were spying on their own citizens, as well as reports that the United States tapped the phones of European leaders.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 19, 2022, 01:05:52 PM
Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 21 - 25, 2022


EUR/USD: Waiting for War and Rate Hike

The period from February 10 to 14 was unexpectedly stormy. Panic moods were diligently warmed up by the leading media, actively discussing the statements of world leaders, primarily the President of the United States, regarding a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine. The White House even decided to relocate its diplomatic mission from Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, to Lviv, away from the zone of possible military operations and closer to the EU borders.

All this happened against the background of the US Federal Reserve's decision to convene an emergency meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). Rumors immediately spread that the refinancing rate would be increased by 50 basis points (bp) right now.

As a result, investors began to panic to get rid of risky assets, and the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq flew down.

The EUR/USD went down as well. The markets feared that the "hot" phase of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would lead to further growth in energy prices and slow down the recovery of the European economy. According to JP Morgan strategists, if the price of oil rises to $150 per barrel, the global consumer price index (CPI) could soar to 7.0%. And according to Capital Economics, inflation in advanced economies could rise to 4.5%.

As a result, having started on February 10 at 1.1494, the war-terrified EUR/USD pair ended up at 1.1279 on February 14. That is, the euro returned to where it started north during Christine Lagarde's hawkish press conference, which she gave after the last meeting of the European Central Bank.

The results of the emergency FOMC meeting left many experts be Earnings-price ratioered. There was no increase in interest rates. Perhaps the members of the Committee did not want to provoke further mass sales of shares and decided to wait for the outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, there are signs of its peaceful resolution.

Investors began to calm down little by little. However, it was not possible to avoid a new wave of sales in the stock markets. And it followed on February 17 after another "apocalyptic" speech by US President Joe Biden.

Unlike equities, EUR/USD managed to stay neutral and ended the five-day trading session at 1.1324, within the 1.1260-1.1400 range it traded throughout December and the first ten days of January.

The European currency was kept from further falling, among other things, by multidirectional macroeconomic statistics from the USA. Thus, the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits there amounted to 248K, that is, it increased by 23K instead of the expected fall by 5K. But repeated requests, instead of decreasing by 2K, fell immediately by 26 K.

The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the coming days will certainly be influenced by how far the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will go, as well as how deeply European countries and the United States will be involved into it and what the rhetoric of their leaders will be. If there is no war, the topic of the energy crisis in Europe will fade into the background, which will support the European currency.

Support for the dollar is now largely dependent on the Fed. Yes, there are disagreements among FOMC members. But they are not about whether or not to tighten monetary policy, but how quickly to do it and to what extent. The hawkish statements of some members of the Committee give rise to forecasts of 6 or even 7 acts of monetary restriction in 2022. However, a number of leaders of the Federal Reserve Banks believe that it is necessary to act slowly and more carefully, since too aggressive steps could hit the US economy.

At the time of writing, the trend indicators on D1 are 90% red and only 10% green. Among the oscillators, 20% are green, 50% are red, and 30% are neutral.

Experts' forecast for the next week also looks very uncertain: 40% do not exclude the growth of the pair, 50% adhere to the opposite point of view, and 10% remain neutral. However, 65% of analysts support the strengthening of the dollar in a forecast for March.

Resistances are located at levels 1.1385-1.1400, 1.1480, 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support levels are 1.1300, 1.1275, 1.1220. This is followed by 1.1185 and the Jan 28 low at 1.1120.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, we can note the release of data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone on Monday, February 21. Preliminary annual data on US GDP will become known on Thursday, February 24, and US statistics on orders for capital goods and durable goods will arrive at the end of the week, on Friday.

GBP/USD: Consolidation of the Pair, Consolidation of Experts

(https://i.imgur.com/g6UOuBN.jpg)

The macro data released last week supported the British currency. This applies to both the labor market and the consumer market. The unemployment rate in the United Kingdom remained unchanged at 4.1%, which was exactly in line with the forecast. At the same time, the number of applications for unemployment benefits decreased from 51.6K to 31.9K in January. Retail sales added 1.9% after a 4.0% dip in December and are above the long-term trend level. All this is a positive signal about the recovery of the country's economy.

Looking back a few years, we can see that the 2007-2008 financial crisis was followed by an eight-year period during which retail sales remained below the trend line. This was one of the reasons that prevented the Bank of England from raising rates. But now both inflation indicators and the state of the labor market can give it a free hand in tightening monetary policy. Moreover, the British regulator is still in the lead, raising interest rates faster than its counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic do.

However, this superiority is very shaky. The growth in sales may not be due to an improvement in the economic situation, but due to pent-up demand for goods and services, access to which was limited due to quarantine measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. So, the upcoming steps of the British regulator are likely to be very balanced. So as not to repeat the mistakes of the ECB, which rushed to raise the rate in May 2009, undermining the economic recovery.

In support of the forecast, it is enough to recall that only 4 out of 9 members of the BoE committee voted for a 50 bps rate increase at the last meeting. The majority, including the head of the bank, Andrew Bailey, decided to raise the rate by only 25 basis points, citing a slowdown in economic growth.

Economic indicators allow the pound to successfully repel the attacks of the US currency at the moment, and we can see the GBP/USD pair consolidating around 1.3600. We can say that experts' forecasts for the coming week are also consolidating: 25% of them vote for a sideways trend. 40% vote for moving north and 35% for moving south. (When moving to a monthly forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 70%).

The overwhelming majority of indicators are aimed upwards D1. Among the oscillators, there are 70% of those. 20% have taken a neutral position, the remaining 10% side with the dollar. Among trend indicators, 90% are for the growth of the pair, 10% are for its fall.

Supports are located at 1.3570, 1.3500, 1.3425, 1.3355, the next strong support is 100 points lower. Resistance levels are 1.3600, 1.3650, 1.3700-1.3740, 1.3830 and 1.3900.

Of the events of the coming week, data on business activity in the services sector (Markit), which will be published on Monday, February 21, as well as the hearing of the UK Inflation Report on Wednesday, February 23, are of interest.

USD/JPY: Investors at a Crossroads

The USD/JPY was trading in a fairly narrow range throughout the past week, less than 110 pips (114.78-115.86). As already mentioned, investors are now most concerned about two issues: the expected Russian invasion of Ukraine and the increase in the refinancing rate by the US Central Bank. And, apparently, they have not yet decided what to do with such a safe-haven currency as the yen at this stage.

On the one hand, the increase in USD rates should push the pair up, strengthening the position of the US currency.

On the other hand, the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine may remind the markets of economic crises and a spike in inflation. In this case, one can expect a complete loss of risk appetite among investors and an influx of their capital into such a safe haven as the Japanese currency. Actually, this is happening now, although not on a very large scale: it is enough to compare the charts of stock indices and USD/JPY. This relationship is even clearer when compared to the EUR/JPY chart, since, unlike the US, the Eurozone is located in close proximity to the potential war zone.

Analysts' forecasts for the coming week are as follows: 25% of them are in favor of a sideways trend, 50% are in favor of the pair's growth and 25% are in favor of its fall.

Among the oscillators on D1, 30% are neutral gray, 10% are green, 60% are red (with a quarter of them in the oversold zone). Trend indicators have a 50-50 draw. The nearest resistance zone is 115.30, then 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels are at 115.00, 114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70.

No significant economic events are expected in Japan next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Crypto Market Black Friday

BTC/USD is back where it was a month ago. The chart of the last two weeks resembled the chart of mid-January. The front line then lay at the $42,000 level, along which the bulls and bears fought with varying degrees of success. Last time, they ended with the pair falling to $32.945, and, according to a number of analysts, a similar outcome is possible this time as well. It depends not so much on the sales caused by a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine, but on the US Federal Reserve. Tightening monetary policy and rising interest rates could hurt all risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin has acted as an inflation protector throughout the pandemic. This was one of the main drivers of its growth. But if inflation returns to normal, who needs such a protector?

There is no doubt that the US Central bank will try to curb inflation, which has already reached a 40-year high. But how successful its efforts will be is a question to which different experts give different answers. Bitcoin supporters continue to convince everyone (and themselves in the first place) that we are ahead of an endless rise in prices and serious financial turmoil.

According to Parallax Digital CEO Robert Breedlove, the same thing could happen to the dollar as to the currency of Venezuela. The US currency will hyperinflate by 2035, at which point the price of BTC in dollar terms will become astronomical: 1, 5, or 10 million USD per coin.

The legendary investor, founder of Miller Value Partners, Bill Miller almost half of whose fortune is now made up of cryptocurrency, also stood up to the defense of bitcoin. “It's like an insurance policy. You don't want your house to burn down, and you don't want to get into a terrible accident, but you pay for insurance every year in case it happens,” explained the billionaire.

Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, called $200,000 a target mark for bitcoin in an interview with CNBC and explained who will facilitate its achievement. And these are not institutional investors at all, but small investors. According to the analyst, the total net worth of US households exceeds $141 trillion. People will look for ways to protect them over the next decade in order not to lose their savings due to inflation, . Therefore, Lee says, the inflow of capital into cryptocurrency can be “huge”.

The high price of this asset is an obstacle to the mass adoption of bitcoin, in his opinion. Therefore, Tom Lee has supported the idea of switching to Satoshi, a millionth of BTC.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macroeconomics at Fidelity Investments, one of the largest asset management companies, is also optimistic. He is confident that the value of the first cryptocurrency will repeat the growth of Apple's market value. “I compared the network effect of bitcoin to the network effect of Apple computers. As Apple's earnings increase, its share price rises exponentially. I have reason to believe that bitcoin is following the same path. The price of this cryptocurrency will only increase as demand increases.” And according to Trimmer, it will reach $100,000 by 2023.

This expert believes that BTC benefits from its strong difference from all other crypto assets. “Perhaps other digital currencies will look more profitable against the background of bitcoin because of the better scalability, but at the same time they are likely to be less decentralized. For me, bitcoin is like gold, and other cryptocurrencies are more like venture capital.”

Analyst Willy Woo believes that the future of the US dollar in terms of inflation has not yet been determined. Bitcoin's capitalization is currently below $1 trillion, and breaking this mark will give the coin more resilience, and it will grow over the next five years. Further growth to the gold capitalization of almost $11 trillion will be relatively smooth, after which it will slow down. As for the final figure, Willy Woo believes that the capitalization of bitcoin could eventually grow to $40 trillion.

As for the immediate prospects, according to analyst Nicholas Merten, bitcoin is now giving signals of future growth and “its capitalization could reach $4 trillion potentially in October-December 2022.” That is, the asset will show a 220% increase in relation to the previous record high. The previous rally was 392% up and it was 359% up earlier.

“This is a really great signal,” says Merten. “The past resistance level is becoming an upward support. Investors are ready to pay more and more, which indicates the market is ready to return to the formation of another uptrend.”

The fact that BTC/USD was above the 50-day moving average for 10 days really looked like a trend reversal. A breakdown of the 200-day MA at $48,000 could be the next confirmation. Investors were also encouraged by the growth of the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. If at the same BTC price, it was in the zone of Extreme Fear at the level of 20 points a month ago, it reached 52 points on Thursday, February 17.

However, another wave of active sales on Black Friday, February 18 brought another portion of doubts about the bulls' near victory. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell into the Fear zone to the 30 mark. The 50-day MA has again turned from support to resistance, and the total crypto market capitalization has not managed to gain a foothold above the psychologically important level of $2.0 trillion, and it is $1.815 trillion at the time of writing.

In conclusion, it remains only to quote the words of Tom Lee from Fundstrat. “If there is no crystal ball, it is very difficult to be accurate in cryptocurrency,” he joked about the forecasts. According to a proverb, there is some truth in every joke. In this case, this proportion clearly exceeds 50%.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 23, 2022, 03:39:17 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/WVoJOiO.jpg)

- Expectations of a key rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions are fueling the pessimism of bitcoin investors and increasing the likelihood of selling unprofitable coins. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. The bearish trend is confirmed by on-chain indicators: the number of active bitcoin addresses has dropped to the lower boundary of the corridor. This indicates a decrease in demand for the asset. The percentage of profitable bitcoin investors ranges between 65.8% and 76.7%.
Short-term speculators (coin holding period less than 155 days) have purchased 2.56 million BTC. The average acquisition cost is $47,200. Their unrealized loss is about 20%, with the price around $38.000. They are currently a source of sales pressure in the absence of an equivalent increase in demand. Glassnode believes that if the price rises, the pressure of sellers may increase, who will try to leave the market without losses or with a minimum profit.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the new “crypto winter” can help the industry become stronger. However, he is not yet sure that this period has really come, Bloomberg writes.
Buterin emphasized in an interview with the agency that in fact, people “deeply immersed in the cryptocurrency industry” welcome periods of the bear market. This allows you to get rid of weak projects, and also reduces the level of "hype". It is in the “winter” that many weak and harmful projects disappear, and only reliable, important projects remain, with well-thought-out business models and a close-knit team, the developer believes.

- The law legalizing and accepting bitcoin as a means of payment came into force in El Salvador on September 7, 2021.  According to the Minister of Tourism Morena Valdes, the tourist flow to the country increased by 30% after that. She said that the recovery in the segment has exceeded expectations, as the country received 1.4 million visitors in November-December, against the forecast of 1.1 million. She also drew attention to the growth in tourism revenues: "We planned $0.8 billion in foreign currencies but received $1.4 billion."
The introduction of cryptocurrency had an impact on the structure of the tourist flow as well. If the bulk of tourists had before been from neighboring Central American countries, up to 60% currently come from the United States, the minister said.

- Indian police have detained suspects in a Rs 400 million (about $5.34 million) cryptocurrency scam, according to the Times of India. Authorities arrested four people in the city of Lanowala during the raid, and seven more in Nagpur a day later.
According to police, the attackers urged potential investors to buy ethereum on the ZebPay platform and then send the cryptocurrency to their Ether Trade Asia platform. Manipulating the data, they demonstrated to investors the imaginary profitability of the project and spent the raised funds on themselves.
Participants in the scheme are also suspected of killing one of the accomplices for refusing to disclose "passwords for important transactions."

- Past price cycles indicate that a new bull market for bitcoin may not occur until late 2024 or early 2025. Du Jun, CEO of Huobi crypto exchange, expressed this opinion in an interview with CNBC. According to him, bitcoin's price cycles are closely related to halvings: periodic block reward halvings embedded in the algorithm, which occur approximately every four years.
The last halving took place in May 2020, and the quotes of the first cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $68,000 a year later. A similar price movement was observed after the 2016 halving: bitcoin reached record levels in December 2017.
Then deep drops in the price of digital gold followed in both cases, Du Jun recalled.
Based on the trend, Huobi CEO believes that “we are now in the early stages of a bear market” and expects a bullish trend for bitcoin to come only after the next halving in 2024. However, he added that “it is difficult to predict accurately in reality, since there are many other factors that can affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the recent COVID.”

- Ricardo Salinas Pliego, one of the richest Mexicans, has spoken out in favor of the oldest crypto asset not for the first time. This time, the billionaire recommended strongly to continue buying BTC while the price is low enough, and to hold this asset without even thinking about a possible sale. He is convinced that those who listen to his advice will thank him later.
The first cryptocurrency is separated from its November high by about 45% now, and a number of investors and large companies have taken advantage of the fall to replenish their BTC reserves. For example, this is the step taken by Microstrategy software developer, US Senator Ted Cruz, and El Salvador that made a splash last year.

- David Schwartz, Ripple's CTO and one of the creators of XRP Ledger, continues to be one of the most mysterious characters in the cryptosphere. So much so that many people suspect that he may be the creator of bitcoin under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, or at least be associated with the Satoshi group.
Although Schwartz has repeatedly denied this, he has admitted to "having optimized" the bitcoin code and working on it very early on, back in 2011. Here is what he had to say about it: “I have almost the entire skill set needed to be Satoshi. It is likely that I was part of a group. But, nevertheless, this is not true. I didn't know about bitcoin until 2011." And to the question: "If you really were Satoshi, would you tell us?", Schwartz replied: "Honestly, I would not speak."
Schwartz's speech at the recent presentation of the XRP Ledger Foundation gave another reason for speculation. Attentive listeners noticed that he spoke about “When I Found Bitcoin…” at the beginning of his speech. The fact is that if the word “Found” had the ending -ed at the end, then it would already sound like “founded” or “created”.

- The Coinbase cryptocurrency exchange will pay a premium of $250,000 to a Twitter user nicknamed Tree of Alpha, who discovered a “market nuclear bomb”. Tree of Alpha found a bug in the Coinbase trading platform, with which he managed to deceive the system and sell ethereum under the guise of bitcoins. He transferred 0.0243 ETH from his account, which he sold as 0.0243 BTC, and earned about $1000 instead of $70.
After that, the trader contacted Coinbase management, reporting the vulnerability of the platform. The exchange staff, having checked for the error, eliminated it promptly, and the honest trader who prevented the "bomb explosion" was promised a reward of $250,000.

- While the US federal authorities are thinking about how to conduct financial policy in relation to cryptocurrencies, local authorities are already trying to get ahead of them. It is possible that the state of California will recognize BTC as legal tender, following El Salvador. An expert group is working on the relevant bill at the moment. We should expect an influx of not only new investments in the state economy after its adoption, but also an increase in the number of companies and digital nomads working with cryptocurrencies.
If California recognizes bitcoin, it is likely that other states will begin to consider similar initiatives, which can seriously improve the position of the cryptocurrency.

- The aggravation of geopolitical tensions has led to an increase in the correlation between the first cryptocurrency and the US stock index S&P 500. This is stated in the analytical report of Arcane Research. According to the researchers, the 90-day correlation between BTC and the “barometer of the American economy” reached the highest level since October 2020. On the contrary, the statistical relationship between bitcoin and gold has become negative, as gold acts as a low-risk asset. Arcane Research has also noted that bitcoin spot trading volume on centralized exchanges has fallen to early December 2020 levels.
Analysts are confident that the strongest support range is $28,000-$30,000, as it represents the “bottom of the bear market in the summer of 2021.” They have named $40,000 as an important resistance level.

- Shark Tank business reality show star Kevin O'Leary has recently made his bitcoin prediction. He notes that many institutional investors cannot yet invest in the leading cryptocurrency, as this issue has not yet been resolved at the level of regulators.
O'Leary has noted that anyone who wants to speculate about the cost of BTC at $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 should understand that all this will become possible when institutionalists finally have the opportunity to purchase a crypto asset in accordance with regulatory standards. He notes that he can say this with confidence, as he works with "sovereign wealth funds and pension plans." And although there is a lot of buzz around BTC right now, none of them have a single token. Moreover, they do not even plan investments in this asset yet.
According to O'Leary, it is much better to think of BTC not as a coin, but as software. He has noted that the above institutions have shares in Microsoft and Google, so it will be easier for them to understand if they regard cryptocurrencies as software. At a time when the crypto sector begins to meet all the requirements, these financial institutions will be able to invest 1% to 3% of their capital in bitcoin, and this can happen within the next 2-3 years.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 26, 2022, 03:53:16 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 28 - March 04, 2022


EUR/USD: War Is Not Only Blood, But Also Business

The dynamics of European currencies is now determined by what is happening in Ukraine. You can forget about all kinds of macro-economic indicators for a while. Who and how much earned on Russia's invasion of a neighboring country, and who lost and how much, will become clear only when the situation stabilizes finally. And this may not happen soon.

Russia's possible hostilities against Ukraine had been discussed for several weeks. However, the world had expected that they would be limited to two regions in the east of the country, Donetsk and Luhansk. However, Russia launched missile and bomb attacks on all major cities of the country on Thursday, February 24, early in the morning, including the capital city of Kyiv, followed by an offensive by ground forces.

Nobody had expected anything like this (except for Russian President Putin and his inner circle). The markets experienced a real shock, and a stampede began not only from risky assets, but also from European currencies.

A number of European countries, primarily the Baltic ones, are afraid that Russia may invade their territory, following Ukraine. But even if these fears are discarded, Europe's economy has already suffered serious damage.

Due to its proximity, the Eurozone is much more dependent on Russian energy than the United States. Russia accounts for about 40% of gas supplies and 30% of oil supplies to the EU. Moreover, one of the main gas pipelines passes through the territory of Ukraine, where the fighting is going on. This situation instantly raised the prices for blue fuel to cosmic heights and they were eight times higher than similar prices in the United States.

It is clear that for Western Europe this does not portend anything else but falling into a deep recession, or even into stagflation Stagflation is an extremely weak GDP growth coupled with extremely high inflation, which has already reached a record level of 5.1%.

The negative outlook is reinforced by the economic sanctions that the EU imposed against Russia to support Ukraine. They limit the current industrial turnover seriously, and also tighten the banking sector. It is difficult to imagine how the ECB will be able to wind down monetary stimulus and raise interest rates in this situation. As for the US Federal Reserve, this regulator is unlikely to abandon its plans. Although, it is possible that their implementation will be somewhat slowed down for the sake of supporting the stock market. At least in the near future.

The EUR/USD pair was trading at 1.1494 back on February 10. The war in Eastern Europe led to the fact that it found the bottom at the level of 1.1106 just two weeks later, losing 388 points.

The markets recovered somewhat from a powerful shock at the end of the week on Friday, February 25. The old principle, known since Napoleon Bonaparte, “Buy while the blood is shed,” worked. Stock indices went up, supporting the European currency. After the correction, it completed the week at 1.1270.

At the time of writing the review, on February 25, it is unknown how the operation of Russian troops in Ukraine will end. It is unknown either what new sanctions the EU and the US will take against Russia if hostilities do not stop. Therefore, it is President Putin alone who could give the most accurate forecast for the coming week. We can only record the opinions of experts and the readings of indicators at the moment.

The forecast of analysts for the next week looks very uncertain: 65% of them point to the 1.1300 zone, which has been the Pivot Point since mid-November 2021. The remaining 35% vote for the bears and do not rule out that the pair will test the support of 1.1100 again. Trend indicators on D1 are 90% red and 10% green. Among the oscillators, 80% are colored red, 20% are green.

Given the current increased volatility, the nearest resistance is located in a wide area of 1.1285-1.1390. If the bulls do not stop there, their next target will be the highs of January 13 and February 10 at 1.1485, then 1.1525, 1.1570 and 1.1615. Support zones are 1.1185-1.1200 and 1.1085-1.1120. They are followed by the levels of summer 2020, which are hardly worth focusing on in the current unstable geopolitical situation. Although, it can be assumed that the bears will try to at least reach the symbolic horizon of 1.1000.

As for the upcoming week's calendar, it will be quite busy. It is clear that the main focus will be on the events in Ukraine and the new sanctions associated with them from the EU and the US.

In addition, there will be data on the consumer market in Germany and business activity (ISM) in the US manufacturing sector on Tuesday, March 01. There will be statistics on the consumer market of the Eurozone on Wednesday, March 02, and a report from ADP on employment in the private sector will be published in the USA. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address Congress on the same day. The value of the ISM business activity index in the US services sector will become known on Thursday. And in addition to data on retail sales in the Eurozone, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) on the first Friday of the month, March 04.

GBP/USD: Great Britain Is Europe as Well

Although the United Kingdom has left the European Union, it has not ceased to be part of Europe. Therefore, everything that has been said about the EU and the Eurozone is also relevant for the UK. The only difference is the numbers. Thus, the maximum volatility of the week for the GBP/USD pair was 366 points (falling from 1.3638 to 1.3272), and the finish, after the correction, fell at 1.3410. We can now forget about consolidation around 1.3600.

Just like the EU, the UK was very quick to impose sanctions on Russia and the Prime Minister issued an extremely tough and angry statement condemning the military operation in Ukraine. The consequences of such a step will be quite serious not only for the Russian, but also for the British economy. Suffice it to say that British Petroleum is one of the largest foreign investors in Russia and a shareholder of Rosneft. And the British banks have very close contacts with the largest Russian corporations and individuals. In addition, both countries have banned flights of national airlines over each other's territories.

Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 40% of them vote for the movement to the north and 40% for the movement to the south, the remaining 20% vote for the sideways trend. Almost all indicators on D1 are colored red. Among trend indicators, these are 100%, among oscillators these are 85%. Only 15% of them have reacted to the upward correction of the pair. Supports are located at 1.3400, 1.3365 and 1.3275-1.3315, then 1.3200 and the low of 08 December 2021, 1.3160. Resistance levels are 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3645, 1.3700-1.3740, 1.3830 and 1.3900.

Following the results of February, we will have a fairly large package of macroeconomic statistics related to the British economy this week. The manufacturing business activity index (PMI) will be published on Tuesday, March 01, the composite index and the index of business activity in the services sector on Thursday, and a similar index in the construction sector - on Friday. The annual budget of the United Kingdom, which will be made public on Wednesday 02 March, is of interest as well.

USD/JPY: Japan Is Not Europe

Japan is the one who practically did not react to the war in Ukraine. This is understandable: Kyiv and Tokyo are separated by 8205 kilometers. Japan, of course, joined the sanctions against Russia, but this made almost no impression on the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. Rather, it was influenced by the rise in prices for energy resources, on which the economy of this country is quite dependent. As a result, having bounced off the level of 114.40 on Thursday, February 24, the pair rose to a height of 115.75, and put the last chord a little lower, at the level of 115.52. Summing up the results of the week, it can be noted that the fluctuation of the pair's quotes was quite insignificant: only 57 points (115.03-115.60).

Analysts' forecasts for the coming week look like this: 55% are in favor of the pair's growth, 35% are in favor of its fall, and 10% are in favor of a sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, 65% are green, 20% are red, and 15% are neutral grey. For trend indicators, 65% look up, 35% take the opposite position. The nearest resistance zone is 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels are at 115.00, 114.80, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70.

No significant economic events are expected in Japan next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin and Ethereum Prove to Be More Reliable Than Stocks

(https://i.imgur.com/gpvkyPd.jpg)

The main factor putting pressure on the crypto market was the expectation of an increase in interest rates by the US central bank a week ago. Russia's possible invasion of Ukraine was number two. It has now moved to the forefront, from assumption to fact.

The aggravation of the geopolitical situation associated with this increased the flight of investors from risky assets and led to a further fall in both stock indices and digital currency quotes. The 90-day correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 reached its highest level since October 2020. This is stated in the analytical report of Arcane Research. The statistical relationship between virtual gold and real gold, on the contrary, has become negative, since gold, unlike BTC, is a low-risk asset. Arcane Research has also noted that bitcoin spot trading volume on centralized exchanges has fallen to early December 2020 levels.

Bitcoin is commonly opposed to the dollar, being called insurance against inflation. But if you look at the charts of the last week, BTC is more likely an insurance within the market for risky assets: stock prices have fallen much faster since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine than the quotes of leading cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and ethereum. The S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq stock indices fell below the lows of a month ago in a few hours on the very first day of the bombing and rocket attacks, February 24. There is no need to talk about the Russian IMOEX index: it lost almost 50% in just a few hours, after which trading was stopped. Unlike all of them, the BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs held their positions courageously above the January 24 low.

Of course, this is not a reason to rejoice. Expectations of a key rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions will continue to feed the pessimism of bitcoin investors, and therefore the likelihood of selling unprofitable coins will continue to grow. This is the conclusion reached by Glassnode analysts. The bearish trend is confirmed by on-chain indicators: the number of active bitcoin addresses has dropped to the lower boundary of the corridor. This indicates a decrease in demand for the asset. The share of bitcoin investors in profit is currently in the range between 65.8% and 76.7%.

Short-term speculators (coin holding period less than 155 days) have purchased 2.56 million BTC. The average acquisition cost is $47,200. Their unrealized loss is about 17%, with the price around $39.000. They are currently a source of sales pressure in the absence of an equivalent increase in demand. Glassnode believes that if the price rises, the pressure of sellers may increase, who will try to leave the market without losses or with a minimum profit.

According to Du Jun, CEO of Huobi crypto exchange, past price cycles indicate that a new bull market for bitcoin may not occur until late 2024 or early 2025. According to him, bitcoin's price cycles are closely related to halvings: periodic block reward halvings embedded in the algorithm, which occur approximately every four years.

The last halving took place in May 2020, and the quotes of the first cryptocurrency reached an all-time high above $68,000 a year later. A similar price movement was observed after the 2016 halving: bitcoin reached record levels in December 2017.

Then deep drops in the price of digital gold followed in both cases.

Based on the trend, Huobi CEO believes that “we are now in the early stages of a bear market” and expects a bullish trend for bitcoin to come only after the next halving in 2024. At the same time, he added that “it is difficult to predict accurately in reality, since there are many other factors that can affect the market, such as geopolitical issues, including war, or the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Kevin O'Leary, the star of the Shark Tank business reality show, also announced his forecast. He notes that many institutional investors cannot yet invest in the leading cryptocurrency, as this issue has not yet been resolved at the level of regulators.

O'Leary has noted that anyone who wants to speculate about the cost of BTC at $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 should understand that all this will become possible when institutionalists finally have the opportunity to purchase a crypto asset in accordance with regulatory standards. He notes that he can say this with confidence, as he works with "sovereign wealth funds and pension plans." And although there is a lot of buzz around BTC right now, none of them have a single token. Moreover, they do not even plan investments in this asset yet.

According to O'Leary, it is much better to think of BTC not as a coin, but as software. He has noted that the above institutions have shares in Microsoft and Google, so it will be easier for them to understand if they regard cryptocurrencies as software. At a time when the crypto sector begins to meet all the requirements, these financial institutions will be able to invest 1% to 3% of their capital in bitcoin, and this can happen within the next 2-3 years.

Against this not very joyful background, the interview given by Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, to Bloomberg, can be considered the height of optimism. First, he is not yet sure that the “crypto winter” has really arrived. And secondly, he believes that such a “winter” can help the industry become stronger.

Buterin emphasized in the interview with the agency that in fact, people “deeply immersed in the cryptocurrency industry” welcome periods of the bear market. This allows to get rid of weak projects, and also reduces the level of "hype". It is in the “winter” that many weak and harmful projects disappear, and only reliable, important projects remain, that have well-thought-out business models and a close-knit team, the developer believes.

Looking to the near term, Arcane Research analysts believe that the strongest support range lies in the $28,000-$30,000 zone, as the "summer 2021 bear market bottom" is located there. They have named $40,000 as an important resistance level.

At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, February 25), the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,000. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dipped a little into the Fear zone, falling from 30 to 27 points in a week, while the total crypto market capitalization has fallen from $1.815 trillion seven days ago to $1.755 trillion.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 02, 2022, 05:57:35 PM
Results of February 2022: Bitcoin and Gold Are Leading Again Among NordFX Traders

(https://i.imgur.com/dQzpWXg.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in February 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The first place in the ranking of the most successful traders was taken by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1416XXX, who received a profit of 82,636 USD on transactions, most of which were carried out in pairs with bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P500 and Dow Jones stock indices, and with oil.
The second place belongs to the owner of account No. 1602XXX. This trader earned 22,046 USD during the month, and their earnings were based on operations with bitcoin (BTC/USD), gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD).

Another trader from Asia, who took the third step of the podium (account No. 1617XXX), also used the XAU/USD pair as a trading instrument. Their profit for February was USD 18,059.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 149% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD got only 0.27% in their arsenal.
Startup signals include NVT Capital (388% income with 41% drawdown) and Thuytien1707 (25% with less than 10% drawdown). Both signals exist for only 14 days. And such a short life span is an additional risk factor for subscribers.

- In the PAMM service, we once again mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 73% in 400 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 16%. In addition, investors can pay attention to the TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a profit of 52% in 330 days with a drawdown of 16%, and NKFX-Ninja 136 , which has brought income of 40% since June 11, 2021 with a drawdown of about 15%. Interestingly, the EUR/USD pair is also missing among the trading instruments here. The vast majority of transactions were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD.

Among the IB partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 also includes representatives of Central and Southeast Asia:
- the largest commission, 10.498 USD, was credited to a partner with account No.1593ХXХ;
- the next is the partner (account No. 1371ХХХ), who received 9.410 USD;
- and, finally, the partner with account No. 1336xxx, who received 5.789 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 02, 2022, 06:18:07 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/L4ZVAuQ.jpg)

- According to Bloomberg, the National Security Council of the White House and the US Treasury Department appealed to the operators of the world's largest centralized exchanges with a request to stop any attempts to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The White House spokesman said that cryptocurrencies are not a replacement for the US dollar, which is widely used in the Russian Federation. However, the US authorities intend to combat their misuse. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also called for increased regulation of digital assets in the euro area.
At least four cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have said they will take steps to tighten controls. At the same time, experts interviewed by The New York Times noted that Russian companies have many other tools at their disposal to circumvent the imposed restrictions, including the digital ruble and ransomware.

- The number of bitcoin addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC increased by more than 6% to 2,226 on Monday, February 28. The indicator has not reached this level since March 2021. The number of addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC also increased on February 28, although not as noticeably. The indicator increased by 1.3% during the day, to 15,929. This is evidenced by the data of the Glassnode service.
Some analysts suggest that such a rapid increase in the number of bitcoin whales is due to the attempts of the Russian elites to withdraw their assets to circumvent the sanctions.

- The dynamics of the cryptocurrencies’ movement between private and exchange wallets indicates the lack of certainty among investors regarding the further developments in the digital asset market. This is written by CoinDesk with reference to the report of Bank of America (BofA).
According to analysts, the tightening of the Fed's policy and macroeconomic factors will limit the growth of cryptocurrencies in the next six months. However, BofA emphasized that this will not be the beginning of a new "crypto winter", as the level of adoption of digital assets by users and the activity of developers has increased significantly.
BofA specialists noted that the observed outflow of bitcoin from exchanges indicates the exhaustion of the sellers' momentum. At the same time, the influx of ethereum to the addresses of these platforms may indicate potential pressure on the price of the cryptocurrency which is second in terms of capitalization.
The bank also added that it will be difficult for the digital asset market to move out of the current price range until fears of a possible recession are discarded.

- Tesla board member Kimbal Musk, brother of the company founder Elon Musk, told TechCrunch that they had no idea about its environmental impact when they made the decision to buy $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin.
“We were very clueless when we invested in bitcoin. We had no idea about the impact on the environment, it seemed to us a good store of value and a way to diversify assets. And it certainly didn't take long to get a million - I'm not kidding, probably no less - messages about what we're doing to the environment." “I don’t really agree with the environmental impact of cryptocurrencies, but I love what it does,” Kimbal Musk added, expressing his hope that, broadly speaking, the blockchain industry will move towards a greener infrastructure.

- According to Voyager Digital CEO Stephen Ehrlich, cryptocurrencies are becoming stronger in the global financial system and will become a haven for future generations. He noted that the overall growth of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is manifested in increasing programs that allow employees of various organizations to receive part of their salaries in bitcoins. According to Erlich, the fact that people are ready not only to trade in cryptocurrency, but also to work for it, is a clear sign of the growth of the industry.

- A study by recruitment company Deel says that more and more employees of companies are willing to receive part of their salaries in cryptocurrency. Analysts studied more than 100,000 contracts offered to workers living in 150 countries. 52% of respondents in Latin America receive full or partial salary in cryptocurrency, 34% in Africa and the Middle East, and 7% in North America and the Asia-Pacific region. Bitcoin is followed by Ethereum (ETH), Dash (DASH), Solana (SOL) and USD Coin (USDC).
The number of vacancies representing the blockchain industry is also growing rapidly around the world. LinkedIn published a study in January that said that the number of such vacancies soared by almost 400% last year.

- A group of hackers claim to have hacked Nvidia servers. It is currently trying to sell miners data that can be used to easily unlock the “Lite Hash Rate” limiter from RTX 3000 video cards and use them for mining ethereum. The LAPSUS$ hacker group claimed responsibility for the hack, adding that they managed to steal 1 terabyte of data from the company's servers. This is reported by the industry publication PCmag.

- Not only popular bloggers and bank analysts are leaning towards the Hodl strategy at present, but also robots. “Hodling” is a way to accumulate bitcoins and the most correct trading strategy, this is the conclusion of an AI trading robot created by Portuguese software developer Tiago Vasconcelos. The coder "trained the bot, explained the rules, candles, principles when you can either buy or sell, or do nothing." The bot receives one point for each profitable trade and loses it as a "punishment" for unprofitable trades. The robot advisor makes thousands/millions of attempts with this data set, making moves to maximize the trading account balance.
Recall that Hodl is a popular meme in the bitcoin space that originated from a post on the Bitcointalk forum in 2013 with a typo in the word “hold”.

- According to well-known economist and analyst Alex Kruger, “Everyone is investing in precious metals now. This is what the market situation tells us. It could be even worse: China invades Taiwan, Russia takes over even more countries. Then the market will fall further.” “Russia using cryptocurrency to circumvent the sanctions would lead the digital asset market to a bearish scenario. Don't expect this to happen. But be careful what you do,” he wrote.
Kruger suggests that the sanctions circumvention will be enough for U.S. regulators to ban digital assets in order to protect national security. However, if the geopolitical situation does not worsen, investors will soon see their growth.

- Popular Hollywood actor and film producer Ryan Reynolds has joined the list of celebrities who support the crypto industry. he has recently given an interview to the Bloomberg Markets business publication, in which he stated that the sphere of virtual money is doomed to gain a foothold in the global financial market as a serious player and competitor. “I am absolutely not surprised that cryptocurrency has become a major player in the global financial market, it has been going to this for a very long time. Of course, people's fears about some flaws in its security slow down this process significantly. However, in the context of this issue, one cannot underestimate the efforts of companies whose activities are aimed at making the trading of digital assets safer and, more importantly, accessible,” said Reynolds.
It is worth adding that a large number of Ryan Reynolds' colleagues have recently joined the crypto community. For example, Reese Witherspoon invested in ethereum a few months ago, Paris Hilton does not hide her love for bitcoin, Matt Damon, in turn, is the face of the CryptoCom marketing campaign. But there is no information about whether Reynolds himself is a holder of cryptocurrencies. As part of the interview, he answered this question with only a mysterious smile.

- Legendary trader Henrik Zeberg, author of The Zeberg Report and expert on macroeconomic cycles, presented three charts to show that major stocks and cryptocurrencies are poised to rise in Elliot Wave 5. According to Zeberg, the most important stock market indices S&P500 and Nasdaq are approaching bullish reversals on the weekly charts. If his prediction comes true, bitcoin could once again increase its correlation with stocks and indices.

- Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Strategist Mike McGlone gave another forecast for the future value of bitcoin. He assured that the BTC rate will reach $100,000 in 2022. The analyst also emphasized that the price of the flagship digital currency will not drop to $30,000 despite the bearish sentiment in the market.
The expert once again noted that bitcoin is confidently moving towards becoming an international reserve asset. Against the background of the policy of the US Federal Reserve and the war between Russia and Ukraine, this main cryptocurrency is getting closer to the full status of digital gold. The strategist also believes that such coins as Dogecoin must lose their influence in order for bitcoin to finally establish itself as a reliable tool for protecting money savings.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 04, 2022, 04:57:27 PM
New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022

(https://i.imgur.com/zQ2SMLl.jpg)

The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery on March 1, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD.

Unlike traders' competitions, the undoubted advantage of this NordFX lottery is that its participants do not have to show exceptional results in trading in the financial markets. Both experienced professionals and beginners have equal chances of winning in this case.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

The first lottery was held in 2021 and was a great success: more than 20 thousand tickets participated in it. The draws were held online using an electronic lottery drum, and everyone could follow them. And now, a year later, the NordFX brokerage company has decided to hold a new lottery. Its slogan is More Prizes, More Winners. 202 prizes will be drawn in 2022 in three stages: 140 prizes of $250, 40 prizes of $500, 20 prizes of $1,250 and 2 super prizes of $10,000. Draws will take place on July 04, October 04, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner. (If you look at the statistics of the last lottery, you will see that some of its most active participants were able to win two, and even three prizes).

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 06, 2022, 01:04:24 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 07 - 11, 2022


EUR/USD: The Fate of the Euro Is Decided in Ukraine

(https://i.imgur.com/kXTaon5.jpg)

Macro statistics were mixed last week. But few people pay attention to it at the moment. The dynamics of European currencies is determined by what is happening in Ukraine for the second week now. The escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict is intensifying, increasing the demand for risk-free assets. And it is the dollar that acts as such, not the pan-European currency.

The difference in the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB pushed the EUR/USD pair down both in 2021 and in January-February 2022. The tragic events of recent days have only given it an additional downward impetus. How else can the market react, say, to a rocket attack in the area of Europe's largest Zaporozhye nuclear power plant, located in southern Ukraine? The fire that arose not far from its power units was extinguished, but this did not make it any easier: Chernobyl has not been forgotten in Europe yet, and no one wants a new nuclear catastrophe that could claim millions of lives.

The negative outlook is reinforced by the extraordinarily tough economic sanctions that the EU has imposed against Russia to support Ukraine. They create huge problems in the supply of Russian energy resources to the EU, seriously limit industrial trade, and tighten the banking sector in a grip. It is difficult to imagine how, in such a situation, the ECB will be able to curtail monetary stimulus and raise interest rates. As for the US Federal Reserve, this regulator is unlikely to abandon its plans.

Speaking in Congress on Wednesday, March 02, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell named a number of advantages of the US currency. The first is the flight of investors from risk to such safe-haven assets as the dollar due to the events in Ukraine. Other trump cards include divergence in monetary policy with European countries and the growth of the US economy. By the way, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) has confirmed Powell's words, showing real growth to 678K against a forecast of 400K (481K a month ago).

Also, the US Central Bank believes that due to the events in Ukraine and the influence of Russia on commodity markets, inflation will be higher than previously predicted. And this, as Jerome Powell said, will require a more vigorous increase in interest rates. That is, they may be even higher by the end of 2022 than the market expects.

The previous week's forecast suggested that the EUR/USD pair would retest support at 1.1100, after which the bears would try to reach the landmark horizon of 1.1000. Such a scenario seemed very bold and almost unbelievable on February 25. But the events described above led to the fact that the pair easily broke through the seemingly "impenetrable" support of 1.1000 and collapsed to 1.0885, having lost 385 points in a week. The last chord, after a small correction, sounded at the level of 1.0932.

Amid mounting geopolitical tensions, the euro has lost more than 600 points to the dollar since February 10 and is now rapidly approaching the 2020 lows. And it is not far to parity 1:1. It is extremely difficult to predict where the bottom will be in the current situation. It was at around 1.0635 in 2020, the pair was falling to 1.0325 in 2016. Perhaps these values will become support levels.

As for the bulls, taking into account the increased volatility, their immediate goal is a return to the 1.1000 zone, followed by resistance in the 1.1100-1.1125 area, then a wide zone of 1.1280-1.1390, then - the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the 1.1485 area. However, the pair will be able to achieve them only if hostilities cease or, at least, when a stable truce is concluded. Most analysts hope for the best: 65% of them vote for the fact that EUR/USD will be able to return to at least 1.1200 within March. But trend indicators and oscillators on D1 have a completely different opinion: they are all colored red, although 25% of the latter are in the oversold zone.

As for economic statistics, data on retail sales in Germany will be published on Monday, March 07, then the data on GDP in the Eurozone on Tuesday. The event of the week can be Thursday, March 10, when the ECB meeting will take place. The interest rate is likely to remain the same at 0%, so the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management will be of more interest. Data on the US consumer market will come out on the same day, and we will find out the values of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany and the US University of Michigan consumer confidence index at the very end of the week, on Friday, March 11.

GBP/USD: Great Britain Is Europe as Well

The EU's dependence on Russian gas was about 45-50% before the introduction of sanctions. Unlike the countries of the European Union, the UK is practically independent of Russian gas supplies: this figure is less than 3%. Its trade turnover with the Russian Federation is much lower as well. And geographically, it is separated from the zone of the armed Russian-Ukrainian conflict by about 2,000 kilometers.

All these factors helped the GBP/USD pair to stay in a sideways trend for several days. But against the backdrop of events around the Zaporizhzhya NPP, it still could not resist and updated the February 24 low, dropping to the level of 1.3201. The week finished at 1.3246.

The experts' forecast for the pair for the next week is as follows: 50% of them vote for moving north and 25% for further movement to the south, the remaining 25% vote for a sideways trend. The indicator readings on D1 fully coincide with the readings for the EUR/USD pair. Strong support lies at 1.3170 (December 2021 lows), followed by 2020 supports. Resistance levels are 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

Highlights of the upcoming week include the release of retail sales data for the UK on Tuesday March 08, and the release of UK output and GDP on Friday March 11.

USD/JPY: Yen or Dollar: Which Safe Haven Is Better?

Japan is even further from Ukraine than the UK, as much as 8,000 kilometers. Although it has joined the sanctions against Russia, this has not ceased to be a safe haven for investors. Therefore, everything that literally makes Europe feverish does not affect the dynamics of the USD/JPY pair. It continued to move along the 115.00 horizon last week, fluctuating in the range of 114.65-115.77. And it completed the five-day working week not far from its lower border, at 114.81. This decrease occurred on Friday, March 04, not because of the shelling of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, but because of the fall in the yield of US Treasury bonds.

That is, when the dollar rose against the euro and the pound, it fell against the yen. Competition between these two safe-haven assets will undoubtedly continue next week. 75% of analysts believe that the pair will return to the upper limit of the channel, while 25% believe that it may fall further down. As is usually the case in such situations, disagreements immediately arise among the indicators. Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are for selling, 35% for buying. Among the oscillators, 20% vote for the purchase, 25% vote for the neutral status and 55% are for the sale, but at the same time, a quarter of them have signaled that the pair is oversold. The nearest resistance zone is 115.00-115.25, then 115.70. The main goal of the bulls is to renew the high of 116.34 and rise to where the pair has not been seen since January 2017. Support levels and zones: 114.40-114.65, 114.15, 113.75, 113.45, 113.20, 112.55 and 112.70.

The release of any significant macro statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, with the exception of data on GDP on Wednesday, March 09, is not expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Sanctions, Bitcoin and What Robots Choose

Immediately after the Bank of Russia asset freeze due to hostilities in Ukraine, bitcoin trading volumes increased sharply on Monday, February 28, and the coin itself jumped in price by almost 17% (from $37,840 to $44,220). The number of bitcoin addresses with balances over 1,000 BTC increased by more than 6% to 2,226. The indicator had not reached this level since March 2021. The number of addresses with a balance of 100 to 1000 BTC  also increased on February 28, although not as noticeably. The indicator increased by 1.3%, to 15,929 over the day. This is evidenced by the data of the Glassnode service.

Some analysts suggest that such a rapid increase in the number of bitcoin whales is due to the attempts of the Russian elites to withdraw their assets to circumvent the sanctions and convert the depreciating rubles into cryptocurrency.

According to Bloomberg, the National Security Council of the White House and the US Treasury Department appealed to the operators of the world's largest centralized exchanges with a request to stop any attempts to circumvent the sanctions imposed on Russia. The White House spokesman said that cryptocurrencies are not a replacement for the US dollar, which is widely used in the Russian Federation. However, the US authorities intend to combat their misuse. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also called for increased regulation of digital assets in the euro area.

At least four cryptocurrency exchanges, including Coinbase and Gemini, have said they will take steps to tighten controls.

According to well-known economist and analyst Alex Kruger, if Russia uses cryptocurrencies to circumvent sanctions, this will be enough for US regulators to ban digital assets altogether. "Don't expect this to happen. But be careful in your actions,” he warned, adding that if the geopolitical situation does not worsen, investors will soon see the growth of the crypto market.

The dynamics of the cryptocurrencies’ movement between private and exchange wallets indicates the lack of certainty among investors regarding the further developments in the digital asset market. This is written by CoinDesk with reference to the report of Bank of America (BofA).

According to analysts, the tightening of the Fed's policy and macroeconomic factors will limit the growth of cryptocurrencies in the next six months. However, BofA emphasized that this will not be the beginning of a new "crypto winter", as the level of adoption of digital assets by users and the activity of developers has increased significantly.

The bank also added that it will be difficult for the digital asset market to move out of the current price range until fears of a possible recession are discarded.

After the jump on February 28, the upward movement of the BTC/USD pair slowed down on March 01-02, when approaching the strong $45,000 resistance zone. And then, after an unsuccessful attempt to break further up, it turned back to the south. (Recall that this resistance had already sent the pair down several times in January-February).

If the flagship currency still manages to rise above $45,700 at some point, we can expect its further growth to $47,000-50,000 due to the triggering of a large number of buy orders.

Legendary trader Henrik Zeberg, author of The Zeberg Report and expert on macroeconomic cycles, presented three charts to show that major stocks and cryptocurrencies are poised to rise in Elliot Wave 5. According to Zeberg, the most important stock market indices S&P500 and Nasdaq are approaching bullish reversals on the weekly charts. If his prediction comes true, bitcoin could once again increase its correlation with stocks and indices.

At the time of writing (the evening of March 04), the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,300, the total market capitalization, after rising to $1.963 trillion, returned to the values of a week ago at $1.755 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index grew by only 6 points (from 27 to 33 points), having firmly stuck in the zone of Fear.

Bloomberg Intelligence Chief Strategist Mike McGlone reiterated that bitcoin is well on its way to becoming an international reserve asset. He assured that the BTC rate will reach $100,000 in 2022. The analyst also emphasized that the price of the flagship digital currency will not drop to $30,000 despite the bearish sentiment in the market.

McGlone also believes that such coins as Dogecoin must lose their influence in order for bitcoin to finally establish itself as a reliable tool for protecting money savings.

An AI robot advisor created by Portuguese software developer Tiago Vasconcelos has supported Bloomberg Intelligence's chief strategist's point of view. The coder "trained the bot, explained the rules, candles, principles when you can either buy or sell, or do nothing." The bot receives one point for each profitable trade and loses it as a "punishment" for unprofitable trades. having talen thousands/millions of steps to increase the balance of the trading account, the robot advisor eventually opted for a “hodling” strategy, that is, accumulating bitcoin. (Recall that Hodl is a popular meme in the bitcoin space that arose from a message on the Bitcointalk forum in 2013 with a misprint in the word “hold”).



NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 09, 2022, 04:58:08 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/yNYj7BV.jpg)

- US President Joe Biden will sign a decree regulating the digital assets. Bloomberg writes about this citing informed sources. The document will instruct federal agencies to study potential changes in legislation, as well as the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and economy. Analysts believe that the decree was the result of fears that organizations and individuals could use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia due to military actions in Ukraine.

- The sanctions imposed by the world community against Russia can cause a rapid increase in the price of bitcoin. This was stated by legendary billionaire investor and founder of Miller Value Partners Bill Miller in an interview with CNBC.
“Russia keeps 16% of its reserves, which are estimated at $640 billion, in dollars, and 32% in euros. Almost 50% of its reserves are held in currencies controlled by people who want to harm it. This is not the best situation, from Russia's point of view," Miller said.
The billionaire called the current geopolitical situation “unique” and emphasized that this is an “extremely bullish signal” for bitcoin. He also believes that the Russian government may try to use digital gold as a reserve currency.

- Well-known businessman and writer, author of the book “Rich Dad Poor Dad”, Robert Kiyosaki accused Joe Biden of “destroying the dollar” and gave people advice on how to fend off inflation.
“Biden likes inflation,” he said. “In response to his criminal actions, I am investing in oil companies from Texas and North Dakota. I have just purchased a gold mine in Utah. I buy apartments and houses in Texas. I am saving gold, silver and bitcoins...” “Invest like a capitalist,” Kiyosaki summed up.

- The world of digital assets has been recently stirred up by the news that the journalist of the authoritative American magazine Forbes, Laura Shin, released the book “The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze”. The author shows the cryptocurrency market as it really is in this book. The writer focuses on the large-scale struggle of the rich for influence and leadership in the coming revolution in the “new money” industry.
Shin introduces readers to prominent figures in the digital space, such as Vitalik Buterin, Web3 prodigy, Charles Hoskinson, and Joe Labin (a former Goldman Sachs vice president who became one of the most famous cryptocurrency billionaires). “Sparks fly as these prominent personalities fight for their place in what seems to be a limitless new business world,” the author writes, describing the “crypto clans” confrontation.

- According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the correlation between bitcoin and precious metals has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021. Thus, it has reached a 7-month low in relation to gold and silver. Experts believe that these changes have occurred against the backdrop of a military operation that Russia is conducting on the territory of Ukraine. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the traditional stock market while commodity prices continue to rise.
According to experts, indicators that assess the return on an asset and the degree of risk demonstrate how much better precious metals have reacted to the resulting volatility compared to the flagship cryptocurrency.
The experts have also noted that the majority of bitcoin holders (57%) have not been affected by the recent price fluctuations of the coin. Many holders keep their virtual assets for more than a year, which means they still have positive returns.

- A cryptanalyst known as Dave the Wave stated In May 2021 that bitcoin will not be able to rise to the level of $100,000 before the end of the year.  He turned out to be right. His forecast looks somewhat more optimistic now. According to it, the price of the main cryptocurrency should update its historical maximum in 2022.
Dave the Wave has published the BTC price chart and explained that despite bitcoin falling below $40,000, it is still on its way to $100,000. Against the background of the collapse of the global market, the coin has a chance for a steady rebound from the $36,000 mark. However, the analyst does not rule out that the bitcoin rate may fall to $25,000 before it goes up.

- Well-known crypto analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin may continue its fall to $30,000 against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe. "Why?" he asks. And he answers: “Because of a short-term panic. You should understand that traders are people who are focused on the short term, are very impulsive, emotional, and this is what the markets reflect.” At the same time, Michael van de Popp notes that the current recession is a good opportunity for those who are still optimistic about the first cryptocurrency to replenish its reserves.
As for the altcoins led by ethereum, according to the trader, they are under strong selling pressure in the current situation, which could push them further down until the ethereum reaches the $2,000 mark.

- Kimbal Musk, Newbie traderer brother of billionaire Elon Musk, said in a recent interview that the main problem with digital currencies is their impact on the environment. Therefore, they are doomed to failure in the form in which crypto assets currently exist. The planet will face an ecological crisis if humanity does not figure out how to make them safer for nature.
Kimbal Musk not only sits on the board of directors of Tesla and SpaceX, but also runs The Kitchen, a chain of “green” restaurants, and is the founder of Big Green DAO, a “decentralized charity” project. The businessman's net worth exceeds $700 million.

- Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, believes that any investor should invest at least a little of their capital in bitcoin. The businessman stated in an interview with Magnifi that investors should buy BTC even if they have never worked with cryptocurrencies before. According to Scaramucci, cold-blooded holders who know how to wait will benefit in the future. He is confident that bitcoin is guaranteed to reach $100,000 in a couple of years. The entrepreneur stores about $1 billion in bitcoins at the moment.
The former White House communications director is confident that the United States will not seek to tighten regulation of cryptocurrencies: “I don’t think the US wants to lose leadership in financial services. If they decide to ban or over-regulate digital currencies, we will see capital flight and brain flight out of the country.”

- “The scaling up of bitcoin is accelerating the process of building a new financial system. We have witnessed a global evolution of the payment infrastructure,” said Zoltan Pozar, strategist at Credit Suisse. In his opinion, the structure that was formed after the Second World War is gradually being destroyed, and geopolitical tensions have only accelerated this process. While it is difficult to say in what direction the global economy will develop, however, according to the Credit Suisse strategist, bitcoin has a very good chance of becoming the main payment instrument.

- A similar point of view is shared by billionaire and CEO of Galaxy Digital Mike Novogratz, according to whom bitcoin and gold will become the safest assets in the near future. “You can put an equal sign between these two instruments and stop the discussion about what is more important, BTC or precious metals,” Novogratz said.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 13, 2022, 02:12:15 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 14 - 18, 2022


EUR/USD: Mega Event of the Week: US Federal Reserve Meeting

As expected, the main event of the past week was Thursday, March 10th, thanks to the meeting of the European Central Bank. The interest rate was left at the same level of 0%, and this was no surprise to anyone. But despite the absolute predictability of this decision, the EUR/USD pair first soared to 1.1120 after the statement of the regulator, and then fell below 1.1000. It's all about the failed attempt to "feed" both hawks and doves.

On the one hand, the ECB surprised everyone with its hawkish decision to roll back QE more quickly. Asset buyback volumes under QE will be reduced from €40bn in April to €30bn in May and to €20bn in June, which is significantly ahead of the previous forecast. It had been Previously assumed that the reduction to €20 billion could occur only by October.

However, the position of the ECB on the issue of raising the interest rate has become even more dovish than it was. The regulator stated Earlier that a very small time gap is planned between the QE curtailment and the subsequent rate hike. Now, according to the head of the Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, "any adjustment of the ECB key rate will occur only some time after the end of bond purchases and will be gradual." Such a dovish statement disappointed investors and pushed the EUR/USD pair down.

An additional impetus to the sell-off of the euro came from the inflation report in the US, where consumer price growth reached a 40-year high. Thus, in monthly terms, the consumer price index increased from 0.6% to 0.8%, and in annual terms, inflation accelerated from 7.5% to 7.9%. These data further confirmed the markets in confidence that the increase in the US federal funds rate will take place already at the next Fed meeting, which is to be held next Wednesday, on March 16. Moreover, Jerome Powell, the head of the US Central Bank, said that he plans to propose a 0.25% rate increase at this meeting.

Naturally, inflation is growing not only in the US, but also in Europe. The ECB raised its growth estimates in 2022 from 3.2% to 5.1%. And according to experts at Goldman Sachs, this figure could rise to 8%.  But the divergence in monetary policy and economic prospects is clearly not on the EU's side. The geographical factor should also be taken into account: proximity to the zone of armed conflict in Ukraine, as well as Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers.

At present, Europe bears the main losses from the sanctions imposed against Russia. Analysts believe that it is facing a steady stagflation. The US is not immune from slowing economic growth either. But it is one of the world's leading oil suppliers and have significant shale gas reserves, so it will be much less affected by skyrocketing energy prices. In addition, savings accumulated by American households during the COVID-19 pandemic are now at an all-time high. This financial cushion dampens inflationary pressures, allowing the Fed to pursue a tighter monetary policy.

The EUR/USD pair slightly won back the losses of February over the past week and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.0911. However, in the event of an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine and an increase in mineral fuel prices, the nearest strategic target for the bears will no doubt be a retest of the March 07 low of 1.0805. This will be followed by the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. In the previous review, we already expressed the idea that the quotes may be at the level of 1.0000 at some point. This forecast was supported by ABN Amro bank strategists, who consider the fall of the pair to parity as the baseline scenario.

On the other hand, even a slight hint of a diplomatic settlement of the situation in Ukraine, not to mention the complete cessation of hostilities, can provide serious support to the common European currency and lead to its growth. Given the increased volatility, the nearest target for the bulls is a breakdown of the resistance zone around 1.1000. Then there are zones 1.1100-1.1125, 1.1280-1.1390 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485.

Analysts' opinions are distributed as follows. 50% of them vote for the fact that EUR/USD will be able to return to at least 1.1200 within March. 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 25% have taken a neutral position. Oscillators on D1 are 90% red, 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators are 100% on the side of the bears.

As for the calendar for the upcoming week, as already mentioned, the US Fed meeting on Wednesday, March 16 will be a mega event. And statistics on retail sales in the United States will be released a few hours before the release of the final commentary and the press conference of the regulator's leadership. Attention should be paid to the speech of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde the next day, on Thursday, March 17, as well as to data from the consumer market of the Eurozone and from the US labor market.

GBP/USD: What to Expect from the Bank of England?

The EU's dependence on Russian gas was about 45-50% before the imposition of sanctions. Unlike the countries of the European Union, the UK is practically independent of Russian gas supplies: this figure is less than 3%. Its trade turnover with the Russian Federation is also much lower. And geographically, it is separated from the zone of the armed Russian-Ukrainian conflict by about 2,000 kilometers. All these factors enable the Bank of England, in contrast to its colleagues from the ECB, to act more decisively in the normalization of its monetary policy.

There will also be a meeting of the Bank of England on March 17, the day after the Fed meeting. And it is quite possible that the decision of the UK regulator on the interest rate will depend on how much the US Central Bank will raise (or not raise) its rate on the eve. This is an additional factor of uncertainty when predicting the exchange rate of the British currency.

Recall that the Bank of England was the first to raise the rate, raising it to 0.5%. But it is still unclear how long its hawkish fuse will last.

Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 35% vote for the movement to the north, 35% - for further movement to the south, the remaining 20% vote for the sideways trend. However, when moving to a monthly forecast, bull supporters get a clear advantage: those are 65%, with 15% of the votes cast for bears and 20% of abstentions. All 100% of the indicators on D1 are facing south at the time of writing the review, however, 30% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold.

The pound finished the weekly trading session at 1.3035. The nearest support is located in the zone 1.2985-1.3025, followed by the 2020 supports. Resistance levels are 1.3080, 1.3145, 1.3200, 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

Aside from the Bank of England meeting, next week's events include the publication of data from the UK labor market on Tuesday, March 15, including the average wage level in the country, as well as changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits.

USD/JPY: Markets Have Chosen the Dollar

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We put the question: “Yen or Dollar: Which Safe Haven Is Better?” in the title of the previous USD/JPY review, implying that when the market is in a panic, investors start looking for the safest place to store their capital.

The dollar won this dispute last week. It not only won, but by a wide margin. Having started at 114.81, on Friday March 11, the USD/JPY pair peaked at 117.35, and the last chord of the week sounded a little lower at 117.25. Recall that the vast majority of experts (75%) predicted the growth of the pair, but almost no one expected the breakthrough to be so powerful and all-destroying. As a result of this blitzkrieg, the pair not only renewed the January-February high of 116.35 but reached the zone where it had been traded for a very, very long time, at the turn of 2016/2017.

Experts cite the fact that the Bank of Japan still prefers to refrain from cutting economic stimulus, as the reason for such weak demand for the yen. As we have already written, the regulator believes that tightening monetary policy in the current conditions can bring more harm than good to the economy. Moreover, the country has also joined the sanctions against Russia, which deprives its export-oriented companies of a serious share of income.

Against the backdrop of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, it is also noteworthy that a peace treaty between Russia and Japan was never concluded at the end of World War II, and the countries are still formally at war. The reason is the disagreement regarding the ownership of South Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands. And this issue has been raised again in recent days.

Weak statistics played against the yen last week as well. Japan's GDP fell from 1.3% to 1.1% in the Q4 2021 instead of growing to 1.4%. In annual terms, this figure fell from 5.4% to 4.6%, which disappointed investors.

As for the forecast, 80% of analysts believe that the pair's growth potential has already been exhausted, 20% adhere to the opposite point of view. There is almost complete unanimity among the indicators on D1, after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators, as well as 90% of oscillators are looking up, although a third of them are already in the overbought zone. The remaining 10% of oscillators have taken a neutral position.

Experts name 117.35, 117.70, 118.00 and 118.60 as resistance levels. Supports are located at levels and zones 117.00, 116.75, 116.35, 115.75, 115.00, 114.40-114.65, 114.15, 113.75.

A regular meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Friday, March 18. But if the Bank of England has something to answer the US Federal Reserve, nothing of the kind can be expected from the Japanese regulator with its always negative (minus 0.1%) rate. The yen, as a safe-haven currency, is usually supported by investors running away from risky assets. However, judging by the events of the past week, they may give preference to the dollar.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: March 09 Mystery and the Secret Struggle of Crypto Clans

Many were probably surprised by the unexpected jump in bitcoin on Wednesday March 09. The beginning of the week passed quite calmly: the bulls tried to break above $40,000, the bears tried to lower the quotes below $37,000. And then all of a sudden, in just a few hours, the BTC/USD pair soared by 10%, reaching a high of $42,520.

Why did it happen?

We have repeatedly said that the present and future of the crypto market is largely in the hands of the White House and the US central bank, and the jump on March 09 is an obvious proof of this.

Bitcoin and other digital assets surged after the details of President Joe Biden's executive order were revealed. The document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce.

According to a number of analysts, the events in Ukraine prompted the preparation of this document by the White House. More precisely, the fear that some organizations and individuals may use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia. But, whatever the reason, it doesn't change the point. Unlike, for example, China, which seeks to completely destroy this market, the United States, on the contrary, seems to want to develop this industry. And this was positively received by crypto investors.

Such Washington's intentions were confirmed by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director. He is confident that the United States will not tighten the noose around the neck of the crypto market: “I don’t think the US wants to lose its leadership in financial services. If they decide to ban or over-regulate digital currencies, we will see capital flight and brain flight out of the country.”|

This businessman also stated in an interview with Magnifi that investors should buy BTC even if they have never worked with cryptocurrencies before. According to Scaramucci, cold-blooded holders who know how to wait will benefit in the future. He is confident that bitcoin is guaranteed to reach $100,000 in a couple of years. Note that the entrepreneur stores about $1 billion in bitcoins at the moment.

Returning to the sanctions against Russia, they can cause the price of bitcoin to skyrocket, according to another billionaire, the legendary investor Bill Miller. “Almost 50% of its reserves are held by Russia in currencies controlled by people who want to harm it,” Miller said. In this regard, the Russian government may try to use digital gold as a reserve currency. And this, according to Miller, is a “very bullish signal” for bitcoin.

The bullish sentiment was also supported by an authoritative cryptanalyst known as Dave the Wave. According to his forecast, the price of the main cryptocurrency should update its historical maximum in 2022. Dave the Wave has published the BTC price chart and explained that despite bitcoin falling below $40,000, it is still on its way to $100,000. Against the background of the collapse of the global market, the coin has a chance for a steady rebound from the $36,000 mark.

The well-known crypto-analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe looks at the current situation quite differently. He believes that against the background of geopolitical tensions in the east of Europe, bitcoin can continue its fall to $30,000. "Why?" asks the specialist. And he answers: “Because of a short-term panic. You should understand that traders are people who are focused on the short term, are very impulsive, emotional, and this is what the markets reflect.” At the same time, Michael van de Popp notes that the current recession is a good opportunity for those who are still optimistic about the first cryptocurrency to replenish its reserves.

As for the altcoins led by ethereum, according to the trader, they are under strong selling pressure in the current situation, which could push them further down until the ethereum reaches the $2,000 mark.

According to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, bitcoin and gold will become the safest assets in the near future. “You can put an equal sign between these two instruments and stop the discussion about what is more important, BTC or precious metals,” this billionaire said.

However, there is no equality at the moment. On the contrary, according to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the correlation between bitcoin and precious metals has fallen to its lowest level since August 2021. Thus, it has reached a 7-month low in relation to gold and silver. Experts believe that these changes have occurred against the backdrop of a military operation that Russia is conducting on the territory of Ukraine. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the traditional stock market while commodity prices continue to rise.

According to experts, indicators that assess the return on an asset and the degree of risk demonstrate how much better precious metals have reacted to the resulting volatility compared to the flagship cryptocurrency.

The experts have also noted that the majority of bitcoin holders (57%) have not been affected by the recent price fluctuations of the coin. Many holders keep their virtual assets for more than a year, which means they still have positive returns.

At the time of writing this review (the evening of March 11), after the jump on March 09, everything is back to normal: the BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,000, the total market capitalization, after rising to $1.854 trillion, returned to the values of a week ago at $1.740 trillion, and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 27 to 22 points, finding itself in the Extreme Fear zone once again.

And in conclusion, another tip in our joke crypto life hacks column. Recall that we talk in it about alternative ways to make money in this market. This time our advice is: “Try writing a crypto thriller.” An example is a bestseller that recently came out from the pen of Forbes journalist Laura Shin. Its title is very telling: The Cryptopians: Idealism, Greed, Lies, and the Making of the First Big Cryptocurrency Craze. The writer talks in this book about the large-scale struggle of the rich for influence and leadership in the “new money” industry.

Shin introduces readers to prominent figures in the digital space, such as Vitalik Buterin, Web3 prodigy, Charles Hoskinson, and Joe Labin (a former Goldman Sachs vice president who became one of the most famous cryptocurrency billionaires). “Sparks fly as these prominent personalities fight for their place in what seems to be a limitless new business world,” the author writes, describing the “crypto clans” confrontation.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 16, 2022, 04:30:27 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) adopted a bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies by a majority of votes. “It is a good day for the crypto sector," said one of the drafters of the law. “The EU Parliament has paved the way for innovative regulation of cryptocurrencies that could set standards for the world.” It is also positive that the document has not included an amendment to ban mining on the Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm, which would de facto mean a ban on bitcoin.

- Analytical company Elliptic said that it transferred to the US authorities some information about digital wallets allegedly associated with sanctioned Russian officials and oligarchs, Bloomberg reports.
To support the sanctions regime against Russia, Elliptic employees have identified more than 400 virtual asset service providers (mostly exchanges) where cryptocurrencies can be purchased for rubles (according to analysts, turnover on these platforms tripled in a week). In addition, the company's specialists have identified several hundred thousand crypto wallets associated with sanctioned individuals and legal entities.

- According to the latest data, large investors from Russia kept their cryptocurrency holdings on exchanges located in Switzerland. They expected that Switzerland, being a neutral country, would not be involved in any conflicts, so their digital assets were safe. However, Switzerland announced unexpectedly that it was joining the European sanctions. And now the Russian oligarchs are trying to save their assets. For example, Reuters reports that a cryptocurrency company (the name is not published) received orders from Swiss brokers to sell 125,000 bitcoins, which are worth about $5 billion, and convert them into cash.

- MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor is known to be an ardent supporter of bitcoin. His company owns several billion dollars’ worth of cryptocurrencies. Sailor himself is confident that BTC will grow in price, as this asset forms a new financial system. During his recent speech at the Economic Club of New York, he compared cryptocurrencies to real estate that an investor purchases in an American metropolis. In the context of rising inflation, real estate retains the status of a reliable and profitable asset. In this regard, bitcoin can also be considered a safe-haven asset that is not subject to inflation risks.

– Elon Musk agreed with Michael Saylor. His tweet referred to an article in the Financial Times about the rise in prices in commodity markets to highs since 2008 amid fears of cutting off the supply of raw materials from Russia and concluded that it is better to invest in physical assets and cryptocurrencies. “Buy a house or shares of a company that makes good products. By the way, I personally still hold bitcoin, ethereum and Dogecoin,” wrote the head of Tesla and SpaceX.

- Peter Brandt, a well-known trader and analyst, a Wall Street legend, recommended almost the same thing to his more than 600,000 subscribers. According to news.bitcoin, he advised Newbie trader people to "get a degree in their field, avoid student debt if possible, get a decent job, and think of the markets as a hobby." In addition, in his opinion, Newbie trader people should be frugal, buy a house and start a family, and also invest part of their savings every month in bitcoin and in stocks of serious companies, while remaining hodlers.

– According to Bill Barhydt, CEO of Abra crypto-bank, a steady decline in fees within the Ethereum network can serve as a driver for the growth of the asset to the $30,000-40,000 zone. Today, the Ethereum network is one of the most sought after in the industry, as it is used in the field of non-fungible tokens (NFT), DeFi decentralized finance, games, etc. The number of ethereum holders will only grow with the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and the launch of staking approaching.
However, Bill Barhydt has not ruled out the possibility of selling small amounts of ETH in June or July. According to him, this will be a completely predictable correction against the backdrop of the growth of cryptocurrency.

- According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, despite the fact that the price of bitcoin is far from the historical high, the number of holders of the flagship cryptocurrency has reached a record value. 39.79 million unique addresses keep these digital coins on their balances at the moment. This suggests that about 888 thousand new BTC holders have joined the network since the beginning of this year.
According to experts from Finbold, the number of holders holding less than 1 BTC on their balance sheet has increased significantly since October 2020. At the same time, whales (from 1000 to 10,000 BTC) have not increased their holdings much. According to the analysts, this suggests that bitcoin is unlikely to show serious growth in the medium term.
Representatives of the CoinMarketCap service do not agree with them. The portal's SMM service has conducted a survey among subscribers, as a result of which 4 out of 5 users expressed confidence that the price of BTC will rise to almost $50,000 by the end of March.

- Citizenship of Saint Kitts and Nevis can now be purchased with cryptocurrency. It is a small island nation in the Caribbean. The country is part of the British Commonwealth, and Queen Elizabeth II of Great Britain is recognized as its head. The program for obtaining citizenship in exchange for investments has been operating in the country for a long time, since the 1980s. The current amount of investment, which allows you to get the coveted passport, is $150,000. But if earlier the country accepted only the traditional currency, now the list has expanded: investors can transfer about 4 BTC at the exchange rate to Saint Kitts and Nevis.
By the way, some well-known supporters of digital assets already have the citizenship of this country. One of the most recognizable is Roger Ver, the developer of Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

- Cryptocurrencies have proven to be an effective weapon against Russia, ConsenSys founder and ethereum co-creator Joseph Lubi said in an interview with Decrypt. The international crypto community has donated more than $100 million to Ukrainian charitable foundations since the beginning of the Russian military invasion of Ukraine.
According to Joseph Lubi, the war in Ukraine predetermined the further integration of digital assets into the global economy: “This is another moment for our industry that will allow for mass adoption [of cryptocurrencies]. This will be a matter of national security now,” he said. “Our country and many others will have to learn how to use this powerful tool, this weapon. Nobody likes guns, but you need to be able to handle them like your neighbors do."

- Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak believes bitcoin will be worth $100,000. According to him, BTC is “the most incredible mathematical miracle” that surpasses gold due to the confirmed digital scarcity.
Other influencers in the crypto world believe that the coin can reach this milestone as well. Bitbull CEO Joe DiPasquale is one of the biggest proponents of cryptocurrency. Even though bitcoin has been falling since November, he believes that the digital asset is still on track to reach the long-awaited $100,000 mark.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named five times the figure during his speech at Bloomberg TV. He once again confirmed his forecast, according to which the largest cryptocurrency could rise to $500,000 in five years. And it will be a smooth, not aggressive growth.
The billionaire had accurately predicted that the cryptocurrency market would stall at the beginning of 2022. Bitcoin’s upward rally in 2021 was fueled by fears that the Federal Reserve would “print money forever,” he said. Now that the Fed is winding down its stimulus program, the largest cryptocurrency is in the middle of a bearish trend.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 20, 2022, 05:11:00 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 21 - 25, 2022


EUR/USD: Has the Market Gone Crazy?

What happened in the market after the US Federal Reserve meeting can be called "the theater of the absurd". As expected, the regulator raised the key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5% on Wednesday, March 16, for the first time since 2018. As expected, the dollar began to strengthen after that. But what no one expected was that the strengthening will last only about an hour and will amount to some 50 points. After that, it will be not the American, but the European currency that will begin to grow. As a result, the EUR/USD pair will fix a weekly high at 1.1137 the next day.

Everything that happened was completely contrary to logic. The forecasts for US GDP were revised. And they showed that the Fed expects economic growth to slow down in 2022 from 4% to 2.8% due to the sanctions war with Russia. In addition, the forecasts for the interest rate have also changed. It was earlier said that it will reach 0.75-1.00% by the end of the year. This figure has now risen to 1.75-2.00%. Given that there are only six meetings left this year, it turns out that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to raise the rate by 0.25% at each of them.

But this is not all either. The forecast for the end of 2023 was also raised from 1.50-1.75% to 2.75-3.00%. Moreover, it seems that we will face several more acts of monetary restriction in 2024. That is, this is not just a revision of forecasts, but a sharp tightening of the US monetary policy, which could deal a serious blow to the labor market and lead to a large-scale recession.

In such a situation, the dollar would have to grow steadily, and the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices would fall drastically. But everything went the opposite way: the DXY Dollar Index fell drastically, and stock indices quickly flew up.

As already mentioned, there is no logical explanation for this. Some believe that the reason for this is the rate increase not by 0.5%, but only by 0.25%. According to another version, the reason is that the regulator has not clarified plans to reduce the Fed's balance sheet. And someone thinks that it is the greed factor that worked. Speculators remembered how quickly stock indices recovered after the shock at the beginning of the pandemic and decided that something similar would happen again soon. So now is the time to buy US stocks while they are still relatively cheap after a 10-week drop.

Logic began to return to the markets at the very end of the working week. The dollar began to rise again, and the EUR/USD turned south, finishing at 1.1050. As for its future, experts' opinions are divided as follows: 45% have supported the growth of the pair, 35% support the fall, and 20% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 30% of them are colored red, 30% are green and the remaining 40% are neutral gray. The trend indicators have an advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 65% against 35% of the green ones.

The nearest target for the bears will be to break through support at 1.1000, then 1.0900. If successful, we can expect a retest of the March 07 low at 1.0805. This will be followed by the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. The strategic goal is parity at the level of 1.0000.

The bulls' immediate goal is to break through the resistance zone in the 1.1100-1.1135 area. Then there are zones 1.1280-1.1390 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 at 1.1485.

As for the upcoming week, there are few important macro data expected. Thursday, March 24, can be singled out in the economic calendar, when data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone will arrive. The volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known on this day as well.

GBP/USD: Bank of England Is One Step Ahead of the Fed

Strange market reaction to the Fed meeting helped the pound as well. Positive statistics on the national labor market also sided with the British currency. The unemployment rate, with the forecast of 4.0%, actually fell from 4.1% to 3.9% in January, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits in February decreased by 48.1K (31.9K in the previous month). The average wage increased from 3.7% to 3.8%. Taking into account bonus payments, its growth amounted to 4.8%, which is also better than the forecast of 4.6%. All this allowed the Bank of England to once again be one step ahead of the US Federal Reserve and to raise the interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday, March 17.

It is highly likely that the regulator of the United Kingdom will continue to tighten monetary policy and raise the refinancing rate again at its next meeting, in a month and a half. The new inflation forecast will also push it to this. Unlike its US and European counterparts, the Bank of England expects it to reach 7.25% in April. It will take at least two years to bring it down to the target level of 2.0% in such a situation.

The results of the meeting of the Bank of England initially caused the same paradoxical reaction of investors as in the case of the US Federal Reserve. The GBP/USD pair, instead of growing, fell from 1.3210 to 1.3087 on expectations of an active rate hike. However, then, as in the case of the euro, the market changed its mind, and the pair completed the five-day period at 1.3175.

Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the next week is as follows: 50% vote for the movement to the north, 40% are for further movement to the south, the remaining 10% vote for the sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, 70% are looking down, 30% have taken a neutral position at the time of writing the review. For trend indicators, 65% side with the bears, 35% side with the bulls.

The nearest support is located in the zone 1.3080-1.3100, then comes the low of the past week (and at the same time of 2021-2022) - 1.3000, followed by the 2020 support. Resistance levels are 1.3185-1.3210, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

As for the events of the upcoming week, one can pay attention to the data from the UK consumer market, which will arrive on Wednesday March 23. The country's services PMI (Markit) will be released on the next day, Thursday, March 24, which is expected to rise from 60.5 to 60.7 over the month.

USD/JPY: Yen Falls to Six-Year Low

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The headline of the previous USD/JPY review stated that “the markets chose the dollar”. The past week has only confirmed this conclusion. Despite the fact that the US currency fell against the euro and the pound, it continued to grow steadily against the yen. The high of the week was fixed at 119.40, while the finish was slightly lower­, at the level of 119.15.  The last time the USD/JPY pair traded so high was a very, very long time ago, at the turn of 2016/2017.

The reason for this is the Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its ultra-soft monetary policy. The position of the Japanese regulator differs sharply from the position of the Fed, the Bank of England, and even the ECB. Although, admittedly, there are certain reasons for this. Inflation in the country amounted to only 0.9% in February in annual terms against 0.5% in January. This indicator, although it was the highest since April 2019, is simply insignificant compared to the inflation rate in the UK or in the US, where it reached 7.9%, the highest in the last 39 years.

And although, following the results of the last meeting on Friday, March 18, the Central Bank of Japan announced that it expected inflationary pressure to increase due to rising energy and commodity prices, it still kept the interest rate at a negative level, minus 0.1%, and the target yield of ten-year government bonds are close to zero.

As for the forecast, 70% of analysts believe that it is time for the pair to turn down, 20% hold the opposite view, and 10% have just shrugged. Among the indicators on D1, there is almost complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking up, although 35% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone.

The pair easily broke through all the resistance levels indicated a week ago, and one can most likely focus on the next round values with a backlash of plus/minus 15-20 points now. The nearest zone is 119.80-120.20. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 119.00, 118.00-118.35, 117.70, 116.75, 115.80-116.15.

Of the week's macro statistics, inflation data in Tokyo, which will be released on Friday, March 25, is of interest. According to forecasts, the core consumer price index in the country's capital may fall from 0.5% to 0.4%. A report on the latest meeting of the Japanese regulator's Monetary Policy Committee will be published a day earlier. However, all its main decisions are already known, so one should hardly expect any surprises from this document.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Salvation of Bitcoin Is in Small Holders

So, Jerome Powell's speech at the end of the Fed meeting has returned investor interest to the stock market, becoming the driver of the best two-day increase in the S&P500 index since April 2020. Both Dow Jones and Nasdaq went up. This is not to say that the increase in such risk appetites has helped cryptocurrencies a lot, but at least it has kept them from falling further. The BTC/USD bulls tried to gain a foothold above $40,000 once again, while their ETH/USD counterparts tried to push the pair closer to $3,000.

Bitcoin is trading in the $41,650 zone at the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday March 18. The total market capitalization increased from $1.740 trillion to $1.880 trillion over the week. And the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in the Extreme Fear zone, having hardly risen from 22 to 25 points.

Probably, the growth of US stock indices can be considered good news for the digital market as well. Another piece of good news came from the other side of the Atlantic, from Europe. The Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament (ECON) has adopted a bill to regulate cryptocurrencies. “It is a good day for the crypto sector! The EU Parliament has paved the way for innovative regulation of cryptocurrencies that can set standards for the whole world,” said one of the drafters of the law. It is also positive that the document has not included an amendment to ban mining on the Proof-of-Work consensus algorithm, which would de facto mean a ban on bitcoin.

The European Parliament's decision came just days after US President Joe Biden signed an executive order on the same subject. Recall that this document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce.

According to some analysts, the events in Ukraine prompted both the White House and the EU Parliament to take these steps. More precisely, the fear that some organizations and individuals may use digital assets to circumvent sanctions against Russia. And there is no doubt that such attempts are being made.

So, it became known last week that some large investors from Russia had been keeping their cryptocurrency reserves on Swiss exchanges, counting on the neutrality of this country. However, Switzerland announced unexpectedly that it was joining the European sanctions. And now the Russian oligarchs are trying to save their assets. For example, Reuters reports that a cryptocurrency company (the name is not published) received orders from Swiss brokers to sell 125,000 bitcoins, which are worth about $5 billion, and to convert them into cash.

Analytical company Elliptic said that it transfered to the US authorities information about digital wallets allegedly associated with sanctioned Russian officials and oligarchs, Bloomberg reports. To support the sanctions regime against Russia, Elliptic employees have identified more than 400 virtual asset service providers (mostly exchanges) where cryptocurrencies can be purchased for rubles (according to analysts, turnover on these platforms tripled in a week). In addition, the company's specialists have identified several hundred thousand crypto wallets associated with sanctioned individuals and legal entities.

According to some experts, it is possible that bitcoin will return to a bearish trend, against the backdrop of a tense geopolitical situation and the upcoming tightening of the Fed's monetary policy. AcheronInsights editor Christopher Yates expects BTC/USD to drop to $30,000. Well-known analyst Willy Woo shares similar fears. His calculations indicate that there is no necessary dip in the relative cost measurement. This, in his opinion, suggests that "there is room for another fall."

In addition to the growth of investors' risk appetite, bitcoin keeps the activity of small buyers with wallets up to 10 BTC from a collapse: they increase their purchases in the hope of a local bottom being formed. So, CoinMarketCap's SMM service has conducted a survey among subscribers, as a result of which 4 out of 5 users expressed confidence that the price of BTC will rise to almost $50,000 by the end of March.

According to analysts from IntoTheBlock, the number of holders of the flagship cryptocurrency has now reached a record high: 39.79 million unique addresses. About 888 thousand new BTC holders have joined the network since the beginning of this year. At the same time, according to Finbold, a serious growth is observed among small holders holding less than 1 BTC on their balance. As for the whales (from 1000 to 10,000 BTC), they have not increased their holdings much. According to the analysts, this suggests that bitcoin is unlikely to show serious growth in the medium term.

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak is more optimistic about the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency; he believes that bitcoin will still rise to $100,000. According to him, BTC is “the most incredible mathematical miracle” that surpasses gold due to the confirmed digital scarcity.

Other influencers in the crypto world believe that the coin can reach this milestone as well. Bitbull CEO Joe DiPasquale is one of the biggest proponents of cryptocurrency. Even though bitcoin has been falling since November, he believes that the digital asset is still on track to reach the long-awaited $100,000 mark.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named five times the figure during his speech at Bloomberg TV. He once again confirmed his forecast, according to which the largest cryptocurrency could rise to $500,000 in five years. And it will be a smooth, not aggressive growth.

The billionaire had accurately predicted that the cryptocurrency market would stall at the beginning of 2022. According to him, bitcoin’s upward rally in 2021 was fueled by fears that the Federal Reserve would “print money forever. Now that the Fed is winding down its stimulus program, the largest cryptocurrency is in the middle of a bearish trend.

The CEO of the crypto-bank Abra Bill Barhydt draws no less brilliant prospects for the ethereum. He believes that a steady decrease in fees within the ethereum network can serve as a driver for the growth of the asset to the $30,000-40,000 zone. Today, the ethereum network is one of the most sought after in the industry, as it is used in the field of non-fungible tokens (NFT), DeFi decentralized finance, games, etc. The number of ethereum holders will only grow with the launch of Ethereum 2.0 and the launch of staking approaching.

However, Bill Barhydt has not ruled out the possibility of selling small amounts of ETH in June or July. According to him, this will be a completely predictable correction against the backdrop of the growth of cryptocurrency.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 27, 2022, 12:45:15 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 28 - April 01, 2022


EUR/USD: A Tangle of Chaos and Paradoxes

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The title of the previous EUR/USD review had a question of whether the market has gone crazy. Many analysts agreed that financial markets behaved at least illogically following the March Fed meeting. And at most, it's just absurd.

Despite aggressive tightening of monetary policy by the US regulator, despite a possible slowdown in economic growth in the US due to the actions of the Fed and anti-Russian sanctions, despite the worsening epidemiological situation in China, stock indices are going up. This is especially noticeable in the S&P500, which has added almost 10% since March 15, and it has more than doubled in the two years since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (more precisely, it has gone up by 108%).

It is difficult to explain what is happening. The classic explanation that sounds most logical is that markets rise on expectations. Investors remembered how quickly stock indices recovered after the shock at the beginning of the pandemic and decided that something similar would happen again soon. That is, now is the time to buy shares before their price has flown to new heights.

As for EUR/USD, this pair behaved illogically as well. Markets were waiting for the difference in the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB to push it sharply down. However, instead, the pair consolidated in the 1.1000 area, which fully confirmed the neutral forecast of experts and indicators given a week ago.

Apparently, investors believe that a sharp increase in interest rates by the Fed, although it will stop inflation, could create serious problems for the US industry. But Europe may expect good economic growth in Q3 and Q4.

US President Joe Biden said before his visit to the EU last week that he wanted to achieve new sanctions against Russia, including a complete embargo on Russian energy supplies. However, this did not happen, which supported the common European currency. The end of the armed conflict in Ukraine, or at least its transition from a hot phase to a frozen state, can further strengthen the euro. The situation on the debt market, which is much better in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, than in the United States, also keeps the EUR/USD pair from falling.

At the same time, macro statistics look quite contradictory, introducing additional confusion into the assessment of the current situation. Thus, business activity in the eurozone slowed down from 55.5 to 54.5 this month. But it is still better than the forecast of 53.7 points. And in the US, the composite index of business activity jumped from 55.9 to 58.5 against the forecast of 55.4 points. And this is another paradox: how can this happen when anti-Russian sanctions are putting pressure on the economy on both sides of the Atlantic, and fuel prices are skyrocketing?

Even more confusion and chaos was added by President Putin's decision to sell energy resources for rubles. True, this only applies to countries that are unfriendly to him, but this list includes the United States and all EU countries, as well as Great Britain, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and Switzerland.

The UN Conference on Trade and Development has already lowered its forecast for US GDP for 2022 from 3.0% to 2.4%. There was also an adjustment for the GDP of the Eurozone, and it turned out to be more significant: the figure was halved, to 1.7%. This seems to be due to the EU's geographic proximity to war-torn Ukraine, as well as Europe's much greater dependence on Russian oil and gas. And now nobody knows how to buy them for rubles. There has never been anything like it in world practice. Therefore, most likely, purchases will take place through intermediary countries, for example, from North Africa or the Middle East, which will lead to another increase in prices.

The EUR/USD pair relied on support at 1.0960-1.0965 throughout the past week and ended the trading session at 1.0982. Most analysts (60%) believe that the pair will try to break through the support in the 1.0900 zone and retest the March 07 low at 1.0805. Then, with luck, the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325 will follow. The strategic goal is parity at the level of 1.0000. The remaining 40% of experts have opposed such a scenario and vote for a bullish forecast. The nearest target for them is a breakdown of the resistance zone around 1.1050. Then there are zones 1.1100-1.1135, 1.1280-1.1350 and the highs of January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. At the same time, if we switch from the weekly to the median forecast for the whole of April, then the Pivot Point of the month is in the region of 1.1000, as it is now.

Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 35% of them are colored red, 30% are green and the remaining 35% are gray neutral. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side.

The coming week will bring many important economic statistics. The value of the harmonized consumer price index in Germany will become known on Wednesday, March 30, and the volume of retail sales in this country on the next day. Statistics on consumer prices in general for the Eurozone will be published on Friday, April 01. In addition to European statistics, data on employment in the private sector and US GDP will be released on Wednesday, March 30, and in addition to data on business activity (ISM), we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market on Friday, including the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Narrow Channel Amid Uncertainty

As with the euro, GBP/USD bulls and bears are at a complete loss. The reasons are the same: a strange increase in the global risk appetite of investors and the unpredictable situation with energy resources. As a result, the pair has been moving east all week, trapped in a narrow corridor 1.3120-1.3220. The attempt of the bulls to break through in the middle of the five-day period above the horizon of 1.3300 ended in a fiasco, and the pair finished in the center of the named corridor, at the level of 1.3180.

Experts' forecast for the GBP/USD pair for the coming week is as follows: 50% vote for moving north, 25% vote for moving south, the remaining 25% vote for a sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1 at the time of writing, 70% are looking up, 30% are looking down. For trend indicators, the opposite is true: 80% side with the bears, 20% - with the bulls.

The nearest support is located in the area of 1.3150, then there is a zone of 1.3080-1.3100 and the March 15 (and at the same time 2021-2022) low of 1.3000, followed by the support of 2020. Resistance levels are 1.329-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

From the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Monday, March 28, as well as the publication of UK GDP data for the Q4 2022 on Thursday March 31.

USD/JPY: New Anti-Record of the Japanese Currency

The yen fell to a six-year low last week, reaching 119.15 JPY per 1 USD. The record was updated this week: the pair was marked at the level of 122.43 on Friday, March 25.

The Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its ultra-soft monetary policy, is to blame for such a sharp weakening of the yen. The position of the Japanese regulator contrasts sharply with the plans and actions of the Fed, the Bank of England and even the ECB. It still believes that a premature withdrawal of stimulus policies could do more harm than good. Admittedly, there are certain reasons for this. Inflation in the country amounted to only 0.9% in February in annual terms against 0.5% in January. This indicator, although it was the highest since April 2019, is simply insignificant compared to the inflation rate in the UK or in the US, where it reached 7.9%, the highest in the last 39 years.

This dovish position was once again confirmed during the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on March 22, who said that it was too early to discuss the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as raising the interest rate. Recall that it has been at a negative level for a long time - minus 0.1%.

Three other factors also pushed the yen down and USD/JPY up. The first one is the departure of investors from quiet currency havens to risky assets. The second factor is the Fed Chairman's rhetoric that has become even more hawkish. Speaking on March 21 at the US National Association of Economics and Business, Jerome Powell said that the US Central bank is ready to act even more aggressively if necessary. These words led the markets to think that the Fed could raise interest rates 10-11 times by the end of 2023. Based on such expectations, the yield on 10-year US government bonds rose from 2.146% to 2.282%, reaching a maximum since May 2019. And as we know, the exchange rate of the Japanese currency traditionally correlates with these securities. If the yield on ten-year Treasury bills grows, so does the USD/JPY pair. Which is what we saw last week.

And finally, the third factor is the decision of the Russian leadership to introduce payments for gas in rubles. “We do not quite understand what Russia's intentions are and how it will do it,” Finance Minister Shun'ichi Suzuki said at a meeting of the Japanese Parliament on March 23.

Most analysts have been waiting for the end of the bullish rally for the past two weeks, but it still has not happened. On the contrary, the pair USD/JPY has added about 700 points. And now this "majority" of 70-80% has "shrunken" to 50%. Moving from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of those voting for the pair's reversal to the south and its fall at least to 117.00-118.00 is still large and amounts to 85%.

Among the indicators on D1, there is complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking up, although 35% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone.

The previous bullish forecast called the 119.80-120.20 zone as the target, which is now far below. It is difficult to point to any new targets in the current situation. Most likely, it is worth focusing on subsequent round levels with a backlash of plus/minus 15-20 points. This approach was confirmed last week, when the pair finished at 122.08. The range of support zones has also become wider due to very strong volatility. These are the zones 120.60-121.40, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35.

The economic calendar of the week can mark Friday, April 1, when the Bank of Japan publishes the Tankan Large Producers Index. This is quite an important indicator that reflects the general business conditions for export-oriented large industrial companies in the country.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: In Anticipation of a Bull Rally

Investors' risk appetites, which caused the growth of stock indices, have dragged the crypto market along with them. Bitcoin reached the powerful resistance level of $45,000 on the evening of Friday, March 25, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year. it is still an open question whether it will be able to gain a foothold above this level. The previous four attempts failed; the BTC/USD pair rolled back down. However, the rising wedge is clearly visible on its chart, in which each next drawdown becomes smaller and smaller. So the main cryptocurrency fell to $32.945 on January 24, to $34.415 a month later, and it hit the bottom at $37.170 on March 7.

The total market capitalization rose to $2.280 trillion at the peak on March 25, but it also failed to gain a foothold above this significant mark, and at the time of writing the review it is trading at $1.995 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index finally moved out of the Extreme Fear zone to the middle of the scale, rising from 25 to 47 points.

Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine in an interview with Time. At the same time, in his opinion, this event reminded the crypto community that the purpose of digital assets is to bring real benefits to people, and cryptocurrencies can become a counterbalance to authoritarian governments and undermine the “suffocating control” of technology giants.

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, agrees with Buterin, he believes that due to anti-Russian sanctions, bitcoin will gain an advantage over the US dollar, and possibly gold. In his opinion, sanctions against Russia and other countries only encourage their citizens to invest in gold and bitcoin, and not to keep money in dollars. Hayes explained that in a difficult economic situation, citizens have more confidence in assets with a limited supply or offer, considering them a more reliable way to save money.

The BitMEX co-founder believes that Russia's disconnection from the SWIFT international payment system, that is, the isolation of one of the energy leaders, may have long-term negative consequences for the global financial system. Gold will become the dominant asset for some time, as it will be used for international trade in energy and food products. After some time, Central banks will begin to save this precious metal, it will become increasingly difficult for them to make such payments. And this will contribute to the widespread introduction of digital currencies.

Cryptocurrencies need a clear regulation to become really popular. This is the opinion of Matt Hougan, investment director at Bitwise Asset Management. He believes that the current stage in the history of the digital industry is paving the way for growth that will occur this year and will continue next year.

One of the important regulatory steps, according to the top manager of Bitwise, is the recent decree of US President Joe Biden, which could lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin. Recall that this document instructs federal agencies to study the impact of cryptocurrencies on national security and the economy by the end of the year, as well as outline the necessary changes in legislation. In particular, it is supposed to coordinate the work of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission), as well as the definition of roles for government agencies - from the State Department to the Department of Commerce.

Bank of America crypto strategist Alkesh Shah also believes regulation of the crypto market will increase confidence and capitalization to a record high. “Ultimately we need some governance and some level of trust, but regulators want to ban when something goes wrong,” the expert explained. Therefore, in his opinion, a semi-decentralized system is optimal: blockchains, which are secretly managed by centralized organizations. “I think that $30 trillion for the semi-decentralized part of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is quite real capital,” Shah concluded.

If we talk about the foreseeable future, the analytical company Glassnode expects a repeat of the bitcoin high of $69,000. The coin has been trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) For the past 9 weeks but continues to rise. A similar situation was observed during the accumulation period of 2021, which paved the way for a rally in the fourth quarter, when an all-time high was reached. Glassnode data also shows that long-term holders are still hoarding bitcoin and the number of bitcoins on exchanges is declining. The company's specialists interpret this data as the end of the downward correction period.

According to some experts, ethereum is now even slightly better off than bitcoin, as many investors are now buying ETH for BTC. In addition, the community is waiting for the long-awaited update to the ethereum mainnet. The Merge update is approaching rollout following successful testing on the testnet. Before its launch, more than $5.0 billion in ETH tokens had already been withdrawn from circulation as a result of burning. As burning reduces the total supply of ethereum, this can positively affect its price, contributing to the rally of the altcoin.

Analysts at FXStreet suggest that its price could rise by 20% in the current uptrend. But for this to happen, the ETH/USD pair needs to gain a firm foothold above $3,033, which could lead to a perfect bullish breakout for the first time since October 2021.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 30, 2022, 04:23:42 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Zw6iKMP.jpg)

- US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke about the importance of digital assets in an interview with CNBC. “Cryptocurrency has grown by leaps and bounds, and now it plays a significant role not only in transactions, but in the investment decisions of many Americans,” she said.
At the same time, Ms. Minister confirmed her concerns regarding digital assets due to threats to financial stability, the need to protect private investors and the use of cryptocurrencies in illegal activities. “On the other hand, cryptocurrencies have advantages, and we recognize the benefits of innovation in the payment system. We want to issue recommendations to create a regulatory field in the long run,” she concluded, referring to the March executive order of US President Joe Biden. Recall that this decree requires federal agencies to coordinate their efforts in regulating the cryptocurrency industry.

- Kevin O’Leary, an American entrepreneur and star of the popular business and finance show “Shark Tank” stated that “there is no chance that bitcoin or anything else that has economic prospects in terms of developing new technologies for financial services will be banned and payment systems.
Roy Niederhoffer, the founder of RGNiederhoffer Capital Management, disagreed with his opinion, and he sees the possibility of a ban. He recalled that there was a time when private ownership of gold was banned in many countries, including the United States.
In the end, both panellists agreed that regulation of the cryptocurrency space is inevitable, and it will lead to a massive rally. “As soon as we see regulation, organizations will start investing trillions of dollars in cryptocurrencies,” O’Leary is sure.

- Peter Brandt, a legendary trader and the Factor Trading CEO, tweeted to his 629,400 followers that BTC’s recent move reminded him of April 2019, when the top cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,500 and began the first phase of its bull cycle. However, the expert emphasizes that even a technical breakthrough does not guarantee that the coin will repeat the 2019 rally.
“Charts DO NOT predict the future. The charts DO NOT even offer probabilities. Charts offer opportunities and are useful for risk management in a trading program. Chart patterns can either work, fail, or transform. If laser eyes reappear and BTC stops, be careful,” Brandt warns.
Crypto analyst Dave the Wave posted a comment saying that bitcoin is forming a larger ascending triangle on the weekly timeframe and could rise to its all-time high of $69,000. Note that this forecast met with no objections from Brandt.

- DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence bitcoin volatility, and “whales” influence the growth. He clarified that “whales” and other institutional investors accumulating cryptocurrency, despite macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty, are the catalyst for the rise in the price of BTC.
“There has been a lot of panic around the macro environment over the past couple of months. The Fed raises interest rates... The war between Ukraine and Russia, the potential next wave of COVID-19: all these issues have caused investors to be pessimistic and make them think that investors and companies are going to sell bitcoins. At the same time, the “whales”, on the contrary, did not sell cryptocurrency in large volumes. In fact, we saw how long-term investors continued to either buy more or hold bitcoin,” Merten shared his observation.
As for volatility, “all the up and down price movements that we see in the market are most likely due to the liquidation of the positions of short-term traders and leveraged traders,” said the CEO of DataDash. In his opinion, despite a 50% drop in quotes from a record high of $69,000 in November, bitcoin has remained in a bull market all along.

- The conflict, during which American actor Will Smith hit comedian Chris Rock during the live broadcast of the Oscars, opened up a good opportunity for entrepreneurial members of the crypto community to make money.
Almost immediately after the end of the Oscars, there were reports on the network about the launch of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) named after this slap in the face: Will Smith Slap DAO. The project has its own website and pages in social networks. The organizers of Will Smith Slap DAO also launched the sale of non-fungible tokens (NFT) based on the slap, which have already been bought by over 500 people.

- Despite numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, bitcoin is highly likely to move into the second half of the bear market. This opinion is shared by Glassnode analysts.
The price of the first cryptocurrency broke through the upper limit of the three-month range at $47,000 last week. Active accumulation of coins in the $35,000-$42,000 range and the lack of significant spending of bitcoins purchased in the first quarter of 2021 increased the selling pressure.
The share of BTC “aged” over a year has grown by 9.4% over the past eight months to close to a record 62.9%. The holders of these coins did not get rid of the asset in the face of two corrections of more than 50% over the past year. The growth rate of this indicator is comparable to the market recovery in 2018-2019. And this may reflect increased investor confidence in bitcoin.
At the same time, analysts at Glassnode warned that the process of bottoming and investor capitulation in a bear market is often lengthy and painful. They urged not to rush into stating the end of the bear market.

- Citizens School in Dubai (UAE), which is scheduled to open in September, will offer parents of students the opportunity to pay for their studies in bitcoins and ethereum. Payments will be accepted through a processing service that converts crypto assets into the local currency dirham.
“By introducing a new payment method, we expect the Newbie traderer generation to play a stronger role in the development of the digital economy in the UAE. While many people are already enjoying the fruits of the new era, today's children will become the entrepreneurs and investors of the future,” says Citizens School management.

- Well-known software developer MicroStrategy received a $205 million loan secured by its own crypto assets. The loan was issued by the American bank Silvergate. The purpose of the loan is to buy bitcoins.
According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, MicroStrategy already owns 125,051 BTC worth nearly $6 billion. “This loan provides an opportunity to strengthen our position as a leader among public companies investing in bitcoin,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy.
Note that MicroStrategy is not the only company that provides crypto assets as collateral. For this type of loans, Silvergate Bank has a special SEN Leverage program, the total amount of obligations for which has already exceeded $570 million.

- Glassnode analysts have found that the volume of ethereum on exchanges has been declining in recent days. The inflow of this altcoin to the trading floors is 20% lower than its outflow, which creates conditions for the formation of an ETH deficit.
The growth in the value of the coin is observed against the backdrop of the activation of the ten largest ETH addresses. This is confirmed by a new report from the analytical company Santiment. It states that whales have accumulated up to 23.7% of the total ethereum supply. They are not going to dump their reserves and prefer to send ETH to offline storage. A similar trend was observed in the first half of 2017. As a result, we saw the famous altcoin run during the hype five years ago.

- The next time someone tries to downplay Bitcoin (BTC) mining’s environmental achievements, feel free to cite the AmityAge mining farm as an example. Founded in Slovakia by Gabriel Kozak and Dušan Matuska, the company generates electricity for mining by using human and animal waste.,
One of its leaders, Dušan Matushka, said that "their devices run on methane, which is produced during the biodegradation process." Since there is no shortage of human and animal waste in the foreseeable future, we can say that BTC mining here is carried out in an environmentally friendly manner and using renewable energy sources.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 03, 2022, 08:47:06 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 04 - 08, 2022


EUR/USD: Too Much Uncertainty

The movement of major currencies was determined throughout March by reports from the Russian-Ukrainian front, the sanctions-energy war with Russia, and the pace of monetary tightening. The US dollar has strengthened significantly in recent months thanks to a sharp increase in the yield of US government bonds and signals about an increase in the Fed's interest rate. The EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0805 on March 07, its lowest level since mid-May 2020. However, then the growth of the dollar stopped, and the pair moved to a sideways movement along the Pivot Point 1.1000. The hawkish statements of the Fed management pushed the pair down, the hopes for resolving the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine sent it above this line.

The same factors determined the dynamics of EUR/USD last week as well. The pair rose by 240 points from Monday, March 28 to Thursday, March 31: from 1.0944 to 1.1184. First, the strengthening of the euro was caused by reports in the US media that the ECB may start actively raising the refinancing rate this year. Allegedly, a number of large market participants require the European regulator to raise the rate four times by the end of 2022. As a result, investors began to include in quotes the probability of such a move by the ECB, and the yield on government bonds in Europe went up.

The next day, March 29, hopes dawned for the success of the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, which took place in Istanbul (Turkey). The success of the EU's energy war with Russia also helped the European currency. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the sale of energy carriers to Europe exclusively for rubles a week ago. The goal was clear: to support the ruble exchange rate under the sanctions. However, the main European consumers refused to do so categorically, and the head of Russia was forced to note his decision.

Everything would have been good for the euro, but it turned out in the second half of the week that the rumors about the increase in the EUR rate in 2022 are nothing more than a speculation, and that there was no serious shift in the negotiations in Istanbul. Macroeconomic statistics also helped the dollar a little. As a result, the growth of the EUR/USD pair stopped, it turned south and ended the five-day period not far from Pivot Point 1.1000, at the level of 1.1045.

The outcome of the hostilities in Ukraine is still unclear. The situation with the supply and payment of hydrocarbon raw materials to Europe remains confusing as well. Oil has fallen in price by about 14% since March 24. This is how the market reacted to the plans of President Joe Biden to sell additional volumes of oil from national reserves. The White House intends to sell up to 1 million barrels of oil per day over the next six months. And this could be the biggest sell-off in the nearly 50-year history of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. It should be noted here that, despite the smaller volumes, the sale of oil brings Russia more profit than gas currently. And such a decision by the United States should reduce Europe's dependence on Russian energy carriers, causing additional damage to the Russian economy.

Another uncertainty is introduced by the Fed. Recall that forecasts for US GDP have been recently revised. And they have shown that the regulator expects economic growth to slow down in 2022 from 4% to 2.8% due to the sanctions war with Russia. In addition, the forecasts for the interest rate have also changed. It was earlier said that it will reach 0.75-1.00% by the end of the year. This figure has now risen to 1.75-2.00%. Given that there are only six meetings left this year, it turns out that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will have to raise the rate by 0.25% at each of them.

But this is not all either. The forecast on the rate for the end of 2023 has also been raised from 1.50-1.75% to 2.75-3.00%. Moreover, it seems that we will face several more acts of monetary restriction in 2024. That is, this is not just a revision of forecasts, but a sharp tightening of the US monetary policy, which could deal a serious blow to the labor market and lead to a large-scale recession. The market may receive important signals about the future movement of the dollar on Wednesday, April 6. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will be published on this day.

At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the dollar. 40% vote for the growth of the EUR/USD pair and 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, the picture is mixed: 30% of them are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 35% are gray neutral. The trend indicators have an advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 85% against 15% of the green ones.

The nearest target for the bulls is a breakdown of the resistance zone in the area of 1.1100-1.1135, followed by the zones of 1.1185-1.1200, 1.1280-1.1350 and highs on January 13 and February 10 in the area of 1.1485. As for the bears, they will certainly try to break through the support of 1.0950-1.1000 and drop 100 points lower. If successful, the next targets will be the March 07 low at 1.0805 and the 2020 low at 1.0635 and the 2016 low at 1.0325.

Apart from the publication of the minutes of the March FOMC meeting, there will be relatively few events in the coming week. We can highlight the publication of the ISM PMI in the US services sector on Tuesday, April 05, as well as data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Thursday, April 07.

GBP/USD: Trend east, along 1.3100

Statistics from the United Kingdom last week turned out to be rather contradictory. According to the data published on Thursday, March 31, the British economy for the Q4 21 grew by 1.3%, which was higher than both the previous 1.0% and the forecast of 1.0%.  The economy grew by 7.5% over the past year, which was the highest since 1941. But it is necessary to take into account  here that  GDP fell by 9.4% in 2020. So, there has not yet been a final recovery to the pre-pandemic level. In addition, data on the country's current account for the Q4 21 amounted to 7.3 billion pounds against the forecast of 17.6 billion and the previous value of 28.9 billion.

The activity of the manufacturing sector in the UK was also less than expected, which was confirmed by a IHS Markit report on Friday, April 01. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 55.2 in March against the forecast of 55.5.

As with the euro and for the same reasons, GBP/USD investors and traders are at a loss. As a result, the pair was moving east along the 1.3100 level in a narrow corridor throughout the week. The low of the week was fixed at 1.3050, the high was 1.3182, the last chord sounded at 1.3112.

Giving a forecast for the coming week, 55% of experts side with the bulls, 35% support the bears and 10% remain neutral. The median forecast still points to the 1.3100 horizon. True, when moving to the forecast for the whole of April, its value rises to the zone of 1.3235. Most trend indicators on D1 point north. Among the oscillators, 55% are colored red, 20% are green and the remaining 25% are gray neutral. Trend indicators, as in the case of EUR/USD, have an overwhelming advantage on the side of the red ones: those are 90%.

The nearest support is located in the area of 1.3080-1.3100, then 1.3050 and the low of March 15 (and at the same time of 2021-2022) - 1.3000, followed by the support of 2020. Resistance levels are 1.3160, 1.3190-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325, 1.3400, 1.3485, 1.3600, 1.3640.

Among the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on Monday, April 4, as well as the publication of the Composite PMI and the Business Index UK services activity on Tuesday, April 05, and the Construction PMI on Wednesday, April 06.

USD/JPY: 125.09: No More Anti-Records?

The yen breaks an anti-record after an anti-record. The USD/JPY hit 122.43 on Friday, March 25, and it was already 263 points higher at 125.09 on Monday, March 28. The reason for the continued weakening of the Japanese currency is the same: the Bank of Japan, which does not want to change its super-soft monetary policy. Its head, Haruhiko Kuroda, once again stated on March 22 that it was too early to discuss the possibility of curtailing the quantitative easing (QE) program, as well as raising the interest rate. Recall that it has been at a negative level for a long time, minus 0.1%. In addition, the regulator was actively buying Japanese government bonds (JGB) throughout the past week in a desperate attempt to prevent their yield from breaking through the target level of 0.25%.

Last week's high of 125.09 is already close to the 2015 high of 125.86. And if the pair manages to break higher, then, according to strategists at Credit Suisse, this will open the way for it to 135.20 in the long term, and then even higher, to the zone of 147.00-153.00. However, in their opinion, the correction that has begun now can be continued during the Q2, first to 119.79, then to 119.09, after which the pair will move to trading in the range of 119.00-125.00. Credit Suisse also believes that if the pair breaks through support at 119.09, then the pullback may become deeper, to the zone of 116.35-116.50.

The same high for the Q2 is called by Rabobank specialists, who predict the pair's rise above 125.00 only in the second half of this year. They believe that the tightening of the Fed's policy is already built into the current dollar quotes, and this will hold back the growth of the pair in the coming months. However, the difference in interest rates and Japan's position as an importer of raw materials will play their role in Q3 and Q4, and the yen will continue to gradually weaken. A quick jump in USD/JPY above 125.00 will seriously increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program.

As for the past week, after the pair rose to 125.09, a correction began. The low was recorded on Thursday, March 31 at 121.27, after which the pair went up again and finished at 122.54.

With 50% of experts giving a bullish outlook for the coming week, it looks very moderate and sees the pair rising to the 124.00-124.50 zone as a target. 25% of analysts, on the contrary, vote for a further decline in the pair, and 25% have taken a neutral position. It should be noted that when switching to a monthly forecast, the vast majority (85%) of experts predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency and expect to see the pair in the 115.00-117.00 zone.

Among the indicators on D1, there is almost complete unanimity after such a powerful breakthrough to the north. 90% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators are looking up, although 25% of the oscillators are already in the overbought zone. The nearest resistance levels are 123.20, 124.20 and the March 28 high at 125.09. After that, as already mentioned, the bulls may try to reach the 2015 high at 125.86. The nearest support is 122.00, then 121.30. It is followed by zones 120.60-121.40, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35.

There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Whales and Short-Term Speculators Do

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Investors' risk appetite, which caused the growth of stock indices, continued to pull the crypto market with it at the beginning of last week. Bitcoin gained 28% and ethereum gained nearly 40% in just the second half of March.

The main cryptocurrency reached the powerful resistance level of $45,000 on the evening of Friday, March 25, for the fifth time since the beginning of the year. It failed to gain a foothold above it the previous four times, the BTC/USD pair rolled back down. This time it seemed that the bulls finally achieved the long-awaited victory: the quotes recorded a local high at a height of $48.156 on March 28. However, after that, the pair hit the 200-day SMA and stopped rising. The most logical explanation for this stop is the strengthening of the dollar at the end of the past week.

At the time of writing, April 01, the flagship cryptocurrency first returned to the $45,000 zone, which turned from resistance to support, and then rebounded to $46,500. The total market capitalization rose to $2.140 trillion ($1.995 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also grown slightly: from 47 to 50 points.

DataDash CEO Nicholas Merten believes that short-term investors and traders with leverage influence bitcoin volatility, and “whales” influence the growth. “There has been a lot of panic around the macro environment over the past couple of months,” Merten writes. The Fed is raising interest rates... The war between Ukraine and Russia, the potential next wave of COVID-19 - all these problems caused pessimism among small investors. At the same time, the “whales”, on the contrary, did not sell cryptocurrency... In fact, we saw how long-term investors continued to either buy more or hold bitcoin.

One such investor was the well-known software developer MicroStrategy. The company has recently received a $205 million loan secured by its own crypto assets. The loan was issued by the American bank Silvergate. The purpose of the loan is to buy bitcoins. According to the Bitcoin Treasuries website, MicroStrategy already owns 125,051 BTC worth nearly $6 billion. And “this loan,” said Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, “is an opportunity to strengthen our position as a leader among public companies investing in bitcoin.”

Note that MicroStrategy is not the only company that provides crypto assets as collateral. For this type of loans, Silvergate Bank has a special SEN Leverage program, the total amount of obligations for which has already exceeded $570 million.

Despite numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, bitcoin is highly likely to enter the second half of a bear market, according to analysts at Glassnode. This is evidenced by the active accumulation of coins in the range of $35,000-42,000 and the absence of significant spending of bitcoins purchased in the Q1 2021. The share of BTC “aged” over a year has grown by 9.4% over the past eight months to close to a record 62.9%. The holders of these coins did not get rid of the asset in the face of two corrections of more than 50% in the last 12 months. The growth rate of this indicator is comparable to the market recovery in 2018-2019. And this may reflect increased investor confidence in bitcoin.

At the same time, analysts at Glassnode warn that the process of bottoming and investor capitulation in a bear market is often lengthy and painful. Therefore, they urge not to rush into ascertaining the end of the bear market.

A number of experts believe that a new strong correction to the south is only a matter of time. There are still no drivers for the rapid growth of quotations, and everything depends on the severity of the geopolitical situation and the dynamics of the global economic recovery. The $30,000 level may become the bearish target for the BTC/USD pair.

Peter Brandt, CEO of Factor Trading, calls for caution in optimistic forecasts. This legendary trader tweeted to his 629,400 followers that BTC’s recent move reminded him of April 2019 when the top cryptocurrency bottomed at $3,500, starting the first phase of its bull cycle. However, the expert emphasizes that even a technical breakthrough does not guarantee that the coin will repeat the 2019 rally.

“Charts DO NOT predict the future. The charts DO NOT even offer probabilities. Charts offer opportunities and are useful for risk management in a trading program. Chart patterns can either work, fail, or transform. If laser eyes reappear and BTC stops, be careful,” Brandt warns.

Crypto analyst alias Dave the Wave posted a comment saying that bitcoin is forming a larger ascending triangle on the weekly timeframe and could rise to its all-time high of $69,000.

We noted in the forecast for the last week of March that the position of ethereum is currently slightly better than that of bitcoin. The above growth figures are clear proof of this. Many investors are now buying ETH with BTC. In addition, the community is waiting for the long-awaited update to the ethereum mainnet. The Merge update is approaching rollout following successful testing on the testnet. Before its launch, more than $5.0 billion in ETH tokens had already been withdrawn from circulation as a result of burning. Since the burning reduces the overall supply of ethereum, this positively affects its price, contributing to the altcoin’s rally. Glassnode analysts have found that the volume of ethereum on exchanges has been declining in recent days. The inflow of this altcoin to the trading floors is 20% lower than its outflow, which creates the conditions for the formation of an ETH deficit.

The growth in the value of the coin is observed against the backdrop of the activation of the ten largest ETH addresses. Whales have accumulated up to 23.7% of the total ethereum supply, according to a new report from analytics firm Santiment. And they are not going to dump their assets, preferring to send ETH to offline storage. A similar trend was observed in the first half of 2017, after which we saw the famous altcoin run during the hype five years ago.

And at the end of the review, another piece of advice in our crypto life hacks section. Recall that we talk in it about the most interesting and unexpected ways to make money in this market.

Have you ever wondered what the toilet is for? We will tell you: to mine cryptocurrency! This is exactly what Gabriel Kozak and Dušan Matuska from Slovakia decided. As a result, they created the AmityAge mining farm, which runs on electricity obtained from human and animal waste. Dušan Matushka, said that "their devices run on methane, which is produced during the biodegradation process." Since there is no shortage of such waste in the foreseeable future, BTC mining on their farm is not dependent on rising global energy prices. Moreover, it takes place in an environmentally friendly way using renewable energy sources, which completely removes all claims against this industry.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 04, 2022, 10:17:29 AM
March 2022 Results: Three Most Successful NordFX Traders Earned Over 215,000 USD

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in March 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Representatives of Central and South-East Asia took all three steps of the podium in March.
 - The highest monthly profit, 128,026 USD, was received by a client, account No.1620XXX, mainly on transactions with gold (XAU/USD). It should be noted that this trader is not new to our rating. So, they occupied second place with a score of 22.046 USD in February.
 - This time, the second step has been taken by the owner of account No.1403XXX, who earned 70,910 USD on transactions on BTC/USD, XAU/USD and USD/CAD pairs.
 - And, finally, the third place is occupied by a trader, account No.1594XXX, with a profit of 17,791 USD, whose main trading instrument is gold (XAU/USD).

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:
 - CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 225% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. They increased their capital by almost 31% in March alone. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD took only 0.21% in their arsenal. Another signal from the same supplier, KennyFXPRO-Prismo 2K, is two months Newbie traderer than the first one, the profit on it is less - 112%, but the drawdown has also been lower - about 45%.
 - The leaders in the PAMM service have not changed over the past month either. Here we mark the manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO once again. True, the aggressiveness of their trading on the PAMM account is much lower than in CopyTrading. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 92% in 432 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 67% profit in 330 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 54% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also among the leaders. The EUR/USD pair is still invisible among trading instruments. The vast majority of transactions were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD. It should also be noted that the maximum drawdown showed a slight increase in March: it increased by about 5% for all three listed accounts.

Among the IB partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 also includes representatives of Central and Southeast Asia:
 - the largest commission, 8.952 USD, was accrued to the partner with account No.1336XXX, who moved from third place to first in a month and now leads the rating;
 - the next is the partner (account No.1229ХХХ), who received 3,881 USD;
 - and, finally, the partner with account No. 1336xxx, who received 5,789 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 06, 2022, 04:31:29 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Miners mined the anniversary 19 millionth bitcoin On Friday, April 01. This event took place at block 730.002. At the time of writing, 90.48% of the total digital gold issue has been mined, which is limited to 21 million BTC.
According to the algorithm laid down by Satoshi Nakamoto, the reward is reduced by 50% every 210,000 blocks. The next halving is expected in 2024. (For reference: the 18 millionth coin was mined on October 19, 2019).

- The trend towards the accumulation of bitcoins among various market participants continued last week. Such well-known companies as Luna Foundation Guard and MicroStrategy are among them. Analysts from the Glassnode company noticed that, in addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. Since the January 22 low, they have accumulated 0.58% of the market supply, bringing their share to 14.26%.
At the moment, miners have already mined 19 million coins out of the 21 million provided by the algorithm, and the accumulation has become many times higher than the emission. Thanks to this, bitcoin may soon become a scarce asset. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. Exchange balances fell to the levels of August 2018, breaking through the plateau observed since September 2021. The number of coins in bitcoin addresses that tend to accumulate rose by 217,000 BTC since December 04, 2021, to a record 2,854,000 BTC.
Based on the figures presented, it is possible to obtain a daily accumulation rate of 1800 BTC, which is twice the emission rate. And this is despite the fact that the market has been under the pressure of the bears for most of this period.

- The German Federal Criminal Police confiscated the German servers of the Hydra darknet marketplace. 543 BTC were also seized as part of the international operation with a total value of about 23 million euros. The investigation into the case has been ongoing since August 2021 with the participation of the US authorities. Hydra operators and administrators are suspected of providing opportunities for drug trafficking, fraudulent documents and money laundering.
According to the police, the users of the darknet marketplace included about 17 million customers and more than 19 thousand sellers. Hydra accounted for 75% of all dark web revenue in 2020, at least 1.23 billion euros. The platform entered the top 10 platforms in terms of cryptocurrency turnover, beating the Kraken, OKX and Poloniex exchanges.

- 21% of US residents have traded or invested in cryptocurrencies at least once, according to a survey conducted by NBC News. Only 19% of those surveyed expressed their positive attitude towards digital assets, 56% are neutral or cautious position, and 25% view them in a negative way. The agency explained this distrust by the lack of clear legislative regulation of this industry.

- US Senate Banking Committee member Elizabeth Warren compared the digital asset market to the 2008 economic crisis in an interview with NBC. “The whole digital world is like a bubble. What is the basis for its growth? People tell each other that everything will be fine, as it was with the real estate market before it fell,” Warren explained. The senator added that bitcoin will be regulated by the authorities sooner or later. However, she did not specify how the government plans to achieve such control.

- According to analysts at the investment company VanEck, the price of bitcoin could reach $4.8 million if the cryptocurrency becomes a global reserve asset. Such a forecast was obtained taking into account the M2 money supply, that is, the amount of cash in circulation and all kinds of non-cash funds. There is also a lower range - $1.3 million per 1 BTC, calculated based on the M0 money supply, which does not include non-cash funds.
VanEck analysts warn that their forecast is only intended to serve as a starting point for investors who want to estimate the possible value of bitcoin in one of the unlikely scenarios. At the same time, according to the authors of the forecast, it is not bitcoin at all, but the Chinese yuan that is the primary contender for the status of world reserve currency.

- A report from analytics firm IntoTheBlock says that long-term investors continue to hoard bitcoin. According to the results of Q1 22, the total amount of coins in the wallets of these market participants reached 12 million BTC, worth about $551.37 billion. “Long-term investors now own a record amount. This indicates an accumulation phase, helps ease selling pressure, and may help reinforce faith in bitcoin as a store of value,” IntoTheBlock said.
Bitcoin is now showing an almost complete cyclical correlation with the S&P500, which recently hit 0.9. At the same time, the cryptocurrency with its inherent volatility rises faster and falls just as faster than the stock market. The company's analysts note that "bitcoin has now recovered most of its quarterly losses, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ended the first quarter with returns of -3.4% and -7.65%, respectively."

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz has revised his bitcoin outlook. He believes that the arrival of new investors and innovations, developments in politics and the economy, and the acceptance of bitcoin by the authorities improve the forecasts for BTC for 2022. “Initially, I said that bitcoin would have an unstable year, that the price would fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $50,000. But given how the markets are trading, new investors and innovation, the development of the Web3 and the metaverse, I'm more optimistic. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if cryptocurrencies grow significantly by the end of 2022,” the billionaire said.
In his opinion, the adoption of bitcoin will continue, as everyone understands what an unstable world we live in. “Bitcoin began to write a new history at a time when Europe and the United States blocked Russia's financial flows. The military action in Ukraine creates a lot of inflationary pressure, generates a lot of risks and worries, but adds confidence to crypto investors and accelerates the adoption of digital assets,” the CEO of Galaxy Digital said.

- Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs employee and current Real Vision CEO, shares a similar opinion. He said in the MetaLearn podcast that the world is ready for a new wave of bitcoin adoption, and a further fall in the market will have a beneficial effect on its growth. “Sovereign states, especially wealth funds, will start looking for a long-term asset that will provide some security. Therefore, bitcoin will be studied by them and we will see its further adoption - not necessarily as a currency, but as an asset. I think this is a very interesting solution: the global use of bitcoin as a protective collateral reserve asset."
According to Raul Pal, the macroeconomic situation suggests that the chances of another bitcoin sell-off are slim. Therefore, most market participants are likely to stick to a long-term strategy and not actively trade cryptocurrencies.

- Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Cheds believes that a breakout of the ascending triangle pattern will take bitcoin to $58,000. “We have $46,000... and an ascending triangle,” Chads writes. - It is most logical to consider it as a bullish sign, since such a triangle is usually a bullish continuation pattern. The measured move will be the height of the triangle, which will bring us from $56,000 to $58,000.”
At the same time, the expert advises traders to keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average as this technical indicator is currently acting as resistance. Chads believes that if the bulls manage to keep BTC above $45,000, the cryptocurrency will be ready to storm the SMA-200 resistance for a further 26% gain. Otherwise, the bulls face the risk of a sell-off.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 09, 2022, 04:48:09 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 11 - 15, 2022


EUR/USD: Three reasons for the Strengthening of the Dollar

The proponents of a stronger dollar won by a very small margin in the previous forecast. 50% of analysts voted for its growth, 40% were against and 10% took a neutral position. The reason for such uncertainty and disagreement was that the market seemed to have already taken into account the increase in the dollar interest rate in 2022 for the quotes. However, despite this, the US currency has continued its growth. The DXY index has gained about 2% over the last week, and the EUR/USD pair, as predicted by bearish supporters, has broken through the support in the 1.0950-1.1000 zone and is aiming at the March 07 low of 1.0805. True, it has not yet managed to reach it, and the pair finished at 1.0874.

So why is the dollar continuing to gain strength? There are three reasons for this. The first is the Fed's monetary policy, which is becoming increasingly tight. We are now talking about reducing the balance sheet, which the US regulator intends to reduce by more than $1 trillion a year. And this is equivalent to an additional 3-4 increases in the refinancing rate in 2022-23, 25 basis points each. US Treasury yields will also rise, making the dollar more attractive.

The second and third causes are located on the other side of the Atlantic, in Europe. These are the presidential elections in France and new sanctions against Russia because of the armed conflict in Ukraine.

The first round of elections will be held on Sunday 10 April. French opposition leader Marine Le Pen is Eurosceptic. Please note that she almost called for the exit of the country from the Eurozone in 2017. And even if the opposition loses the election, it will still put a spoke in the wheels of European integration. But if Marine Le Pen comes to power, the pan-European currency will certainly not do well. According to some analysts, the EUR/USD pair may fall to the level of 1.0500 or even lower.

As for sanctions, we have repeatedly said that they negatively affect not only the Russian economy, but also the EU. First of all, because of the strong dependence of the European Union on Russian energy resources. In addition, one can add here the risks of Russia using nuclear weapons and the fact that military operations could turn into a catastrophe many times greater than Chernobyl.

The most important event of the coming week will be the ECB meeting and the subsequent press conference of its leadership on Thursday April 14. The probability that the interest rate will remain at the previous zero level is very high. However, investors hope to receive signals on how the European regulator plans to respond to internal and external challenges.

In the meantime, 45% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the dollar. The opposite opinion is shared by 35% and the remaining 20% of experts have taken a neutral position. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 25% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold.

The nearest target for EUR/USD bears will be March 7 low 1.0805. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325.

The bulls will try to lift the pair above the level of 1.1000, to overcome the resistance at 1.1050 and, if possible, to reach the zone of 1.1120-1.1137. Their next target is the March 31 high of 1.1184.

In addition to the European Central Bank meeting, next week's economic calendar includes the release of German consumer data on Tuesday, April 12 and US consumer data on April 12 and 14. April 15 in the United States and most European countries is a day off, Good Friday.

GBP/USD: Fed Hawks and Bank of England Doves

The key and very strong support for the pair is the low of March 15 (and at the same time of 2021-2022), 1.3000. The GBP/USD bears went to break through it, reaching 1.2981 on April 08 during the US session. It seems that European traders, including British ones, are hesitant. But the Americans treat European currencies with disdain, to put it mildly, and continue to put pressure on them against the backdrop of the hawkish minutes of the Fed meeting and the comments of the top leaders of this regulator. As for their colleagues from the Bank of England, the latest comments of these officials were very soft, and raised doubts in the market as to whether the Bank will be able to justify the expectations of tightening monetary policy.

The last chord of the week after the rebound sounded at 1.3031. If the GBP/USD pair still manages to consolidate below 1.3000, this will open the way for it to the November 2020 lows around 1.2850, and then to the lows of September 2020 in the 1.2700 zone. This development is supported by only 35% of analysts. The remaining 65% are waiting for a correction to the north, and here the levels 1.3050, 1.3100 and the zone 1.3185-1.3215 will act as resistance, then 1.3270-1.3325 and 1.3400. All indicators on D1, as in the case of EUR/USD, point south, 15% of oscillators signal the pair is oversold.

As for the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of data on the country's GDP and industrial production on Monday April 11, as well as on retail sales on Tuesday April 12. We will receive a package of information from the UK labor market on the same day, and we will get information from its consumer market on Wednesday, April 13.

USD/JPY: Japanese Are Against A Weak Yen

We titled our previous review as “125.09: No More Anti-Records?”. After a week, we can say that not yet, there will not be. And although the USD/JPY pair was moving north for a while, it fixed a local maximum at 124.67 this time, and ended the trading session at 124.36.

Recall that due to the super-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, the yen continued to weaken, and the USD/JPY pair reached a record multi-year level of 125.09 on March 28, which is not far from the 2015 high of 125.86.

There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week. The only thing that can be noted is the speech of the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, on Wednesday, April 13. But it is unlikely to pull on a sensation. Although here one should take into account the statement of Hideo Hayakawa, the former chief economist of this organization, that against the background of the weakening yen, the Japanese Central Bank may adjust the parameters of monetary policy in July. “While the Bank of Japan has repeatedly said that the weak yen is positive for the economy as a whole, in reality this impact is close to 50/50, and household discomfort will increase further as inflation in Japan rises as well. The vast majority of Japanese do not welcome the weak yen,” Hideo Hayakawa said on April 8. In his opinion, "it is too naive for the Bank of Japan to say that a weak yen is good when the government takes measures to solve the problem of rising prices and limiting gasoline prices."

Strategists at Rabobank also believe that a quick USD/JPY jump above 125.00 increases seriously the likelihood that the Japanese regulator will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program.

At the moment, the probability that the pair will try a second test of resistance in the 125.00-125.09 area is estimated as 50/50. However, when moving from a weekly forecast to a forecast for the second half of April and May, the vast majority (85%) of experts predict the strengthening of the Japanese currency and expect to see the pair in the 115.00-117.00 zone.

Among the indicators on D1, as in the previous two cases, there is complete unanimity: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators look up, although 25% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Given the high volatility of the pair, the zones 123.65-124.05, 122.35-123.00 and 121.30 can be identified as supports. Then follow the zones 120.60-121.30, 119.00-119.40, 118.00-118.35.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Correction or the Beginning of a New Collapse

(https://i.imgur.com/IaZIAZ4.jpg)

Miners mined the anniversary 19 millionth bitcoin On Friday, April 01, out of the 21 million provided by the algorithm. That is, less than 10% is left to be mined. And this is it. Thanks to this, bitcoin, as conceived by its creator (or creators), will become a super-scarce asset, which will push its value further and further up. This is what many market participants are counting on.

The trend towards the accumulation of digital gold has continued lately. Analysts from the Glassnode company noticed that, in addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. Since the January 22 low, they have accumulated 0.58% of the market supply, bringing their share to 14.26%.

The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. Exchange balances fell to the levels of August 2018, breaking through the plateau observed since September 2021. The number of coins in bitcoin addresses that tend to accumulate rose by 217,000 BTC since December 04, 2021 to a record 2,854,000 BTC. Based on the figures presented, it is possible to obtain a daily accumulation rate of 1800 BTC, which is twice the emission rate.

This trend is confirmed by the report of the analytical company IntoTheBlock. According to it, the total amount of coins in the wallets of long-term investors reached a record 12 million BTC in Q1 2022 worth more than $551 billion. “This indicates a phase of accumulation, which can help strengthen faith in bitcoin as a store of value,” IntoTheBlock believes.

The most fantastic forecast regarding the future of the main cryptocurrency has been given by analysts from the investment company VanEck. According to their calculations, the price of bitcoin could reach $4.8 million if the cryptocurrency becomes a global reserve asset. Such a forecast was obtained taking into account the M2 money supply, that is, the amount of cash in circulation and all kinds of non-cash funds. There is also a lower range - $1.3 million per 1 BTC, calculated based on the M0 money supply, which does not include non-cash funds.

VanEck analysts warn that their forecast is only intended to serve as a starting point for investors who want to estimate the possible value of bitcoin in one of the unlikely scenarios. At the same time, according to the authors of the forecast, it is not bitcoin at all, but the Chinese yuan that is the primary contender for the status of world reserve currency.

Even the most notorious crypto fans understand that millions of dollars per coin are still infinitely far away. However, as for the foreseeable future, a number of scenarios look quite optimistic here. Thus, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that the arrival of new investors and innovations, developments in politics and the economy, and the acceptance of bitcoin by the authorities improve the forecasts for BTC for 2022. “Initially, I said that bitcoin would have an unstable year, that the price would fluctuate in the range of $30,000 to $50,000. But given how the markets are trading, new investors and innovation, the development of the Web3 and the metaverse, I'm more optimistic. Therefore, I won’t be surprised if cryptocurrencies grow significantly by the end of 2022,” the billionaire said.

In his opinion, the adoption of bitcoin will continue as everyone understands what an unstable world we live in. “Bitcoin began to write a new history at a time when Europe and the United States blocked Russia's financial flows. The military action in Ukraine creates a lot of inflationary pressure, generates a lot of risks and worries, but adds confidence to crypto investors and accelerates the adoption of digital assets,” the CEO of Galaxy Digital said.

Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs employee and current Real Vision CEO, shares a similar opinion. He said in the MetaLearn podcast that the world is ready for a new wave of bitcoin adoption, and a further fall in the market will have a beneficial effect on its growth. “Sovereign states, especially wealth funds, will start looking for a long-term asset that will provide some security. Therefore, bitcoin will be studied by them and we will see its further adoption - not necessarily as a currency, but as an asset. I think this is a very interesting solution: the global use of bitcoin as a protective collateral reserve asset."

According to Raul Pal, the macroeconomic situation suggests that the chances of another bitcoin sell-off are slim. Therefore, most market participants are likely to stick to a long-term strategy and not actively trade cryptocurrencies.

However, digital gold stopped rising after reaching a high of $48,156 on March 28. The bulls have not been able to push the BTC/USD pair above the 200-day moving average, and at the time of writing, on the evening of April 08, it is trading around $43,000. The total market capitalization is below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, having fallen from $2.140 trillion to $1.985 trillion during the week. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also began to feel worse, falling from neutral 50 to 37 points, which are already in the Fear zone.

Renowned analyst and trader Cheds views the ascending triangle that has been forming since January 24 as a bullish sign. Such a triangle, he says, is usually a bullish continuation pattern. And in the event of an upside breakout, “the measurable move will be the height of the triangle, which will bring from $56,000 to $58,000.”

At the same time, the expert advises traders to keep a close eye on the 200-day moving average as this technical indicator is currently acting as resistance. Chads believes that if the bulls manage to keep BTC above $45,000, the cryptocurrency will be ready to storm the SMA-200 resistance for a further 26% gain. Otherwise, the bulls face the risk of a sell-off.

As mentioned, BTC/USD is currently trading at $43,000, below Cheds' support. However, given the volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency, the victory of the bears cannot yet be considered complete. A breakthrough to the south may be false. Moreover, bitcoin has ceased to be independent. It was in 2010, when 10,000 BTC could buy two pizzas, when it lived its own life. Now it has matured and become part of the global economy. Bitcoin is now showing an almost complete cyclical correlation with the S&P 500, which has recently hit 0.9. And it falls after the US stock market. And the latter, in turn, depends on the risk appetites of global investors.

If the craving for risky assets recovers, the crypto market will also go up. Otherwise, according to some experts, we can expect the BTC/USD pair to decline to March lows near $37,000 per coin. The probability of quotes falling even lower, to $30,000, is also quite high.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 13, 2022, 02:57:22 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/br4qZaq.jpg)

- Bitcoin remains hyper volatile, but its turnover is inferior to other assets, which does not allow us to talk about the high “speculativeness” of the first cryptocurrency. This, according to Financial News, was stated by Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat. According to Lee's calculations, the turnover of bitcoins is 2:1, while that of the US dollar is 96:1, and that of a barrel of oil is 31:1. “Today, with […] LIBOR (London Interbank Offered Rate)ion rates so low, one would expect bitcoin to be hyper volatile. But as 9 out of 10 households invest in the first cryptocurrency, its price fluctuations will weaken,” the specialist explained.

- David Rubenstein, co-founder of the investment fund Carlyle Group, admitted that he had been skeptical about cryptocurrencies, but his opinion changed over time. He emphasized that he did not buy cryptocurrencies, but “invested in companies that serve the industry.” "The genie is out of the bottle, and I don't think the industry is going to disappear anytime soon," the billionaire said.
He also pointed to the crisis in Ukraine as an additional reason for his current optimism. “If you are in Ukraine or Russia and the country is in a lot of trouble, having some crypto will probably make you feel better as you have something out of government control,” Rubenstein noted.

- The cryptocurrency industry will become the twelfth sector of the S&P 500 index in the next decade. This was stated by investor and star of the television show Shark Tank Kevin O'Leary.
Currently, the S&P 500 benchmark includes 11 sectors of the economy, and most experts advise investing no more than 20% of the portfolio in any of them. According to O'Leary, he adheres to this strategy when investing in cryptocurrencies. The millionaire said that he holds 32 positions in the digital asset sector, and none of them takes more than 5% of the prescribed 20%.
O'Leary stressed that investment diversification is one of the founding principles because "you have no idea what might work." In his opinion, even two successful bets out of ten can recoup unprofitable investments.

- According to Bloomberg analysts, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency may soon fall to $26,000. The experts emphasized that if the technical analysis pattern called “bear flag” works, then such a scenario will be inevitable.
In their opinion, the BTC rate is now on its way to testing a key support level around $37,500. If it does not hold above this mark, the market is in for a disaster.
Bloomberg specialists also noted that they took into account the Coinglass report. According to this company, about $439 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated on April 12. At the same time, more than 88% of closed orders accounted for long positions. Bitcoin futures contracts for $160 million were also closed.

- Philosopher and professor of psychology at the University of Toronto Jordan Peterson spoke at at the Bitcoin-2022 conference in Miami and called the first cryptocurrency revolutionary but causing concern. As a sociologist, Peterson worries about getting money out of the control of the political system. According to him, new ideas can bring unforeseen consequences, and not only positive ones.
“I am not suggesting that you do anything as a result of this warning. I'm just saying that the unbridled enthusiasm is based on the assumption that the new system will only do good. It's unreasonable," Peterson said.

- Group-IB specialists identified 36 fraudulent YouTube streams dedicated to investing in cryptocurrencies in the period from February 16 to February 18. They brought the scammers about $1.7 million during these three days.
The attackers edited videos from old speeches by famous representatives of the crypto community and entrepreneurs. More often than others, the images of Vitalik Buterin, Elon Musk, Michael Saylor, Changpeng Zhao and Cathy Wood were used. On average, the audience of one such stream ranged from 3,000 to 18,000 people. And the fake stream with Buterin gathered more than 165,000 viewers. During the broadcast, users were offered to transfer cryptocurrencies to the specified wallet and allegedly receive them back in double. To receive an “additional bonus”, the attackers offered the investor to provide the seed phrase of their crypto wallet. If the victim agreed, the scammers withdrew all the funds on it.
In total, the deceived viewers made 281 transactions. Ethereum turned out to be the most popular among scammers. Most of the domains involved in the broadcasts appeared through the Russian registrar Reg.ru.

- Geoffrey Halley of Oanda stated that the flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within the established range, the lower limit of which is at $36,500. If BTC falls even more, it can lead to serious losses for traders and investors. However, if the price of bitcoin soars in the near future above the upper limit of the range of $47,500, this will be a prerequisite for reaching a new record high.

- Crypto trader known as Cheds told their 45,100 YouTube followers that the bears are now in control and any bounce is an opportunity to go short on BTC. Cheds also believes that the next rally is likely to be a bear trap rather than a trend reversal.

- One of the by-products of bitcoin mining is the excess heat from the operation of crypto farms, which Jonathan Yuan took advantage of. He has kids who love swimming in the pool. However, they almost did not do this because the water was too cold. Yuan himself is actively involved in mining, and drew attention to the fact that his equipment generates too much heat. He purchased a heat exchanger and used it to install a system for heating water. According to him, thanks to this invention, the temperature in the pool can be maintained at approximately 32° C.
At the same time, the Yuan crypto farm thus received a water-cooling system. However, when the inventor pushed his ASIC miners to the limit, the temperature in the pool rose above 43°C, which also did not please his children.
Jonathan Yuan notes that almost everything can be heated according to this principle: living premises, garages and so on. It is assumed that the heating temperature can reach a maximum threshold of 60°C.

- Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki fully agrees with the opinion of analysts who believe that the US dollar and other markets are on the verge of collapse due to rising food, oil and energy prices, as well as widespread inflation. The author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad assured that what is happening in the world of finance is a sign of a coming crisis, and this process will simply destroy half the US population. He noted that cryptocurrencies in this situation are a good tool to reduce risks, but not all people resort to using this asset class.
Kiyosaki emphasized that now 40% of Americans do not even have $1,000 in their savings. The inflation rate is rising, and this figure will soon exceed 50%. Then, according to the investor, a revolution will begin.

- Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, a company known for investing in bitcoin, and Cathie Wood, CEO of investment firm Arch Invest, contacted at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami. Both participants of the panel discussion still believe in bitcoin and are waiting for its growth, and the current situation in the market does not upset them at all. In their opinion, the Fed's monetary policy will continue to be inflationary, pushing prices up. In such a situation, according to Cathie Wood, bitcoin, as a means of hedging, has great potential for growth and its price could reach a record $1 million per coin. “It takes quite a bit of effort to do this,” the head of Arch Invest said. "We don't need much. All we need is for 2.5% of all assets to be converted to bitcoin.”
Both panellists believe that regulators are getting better at the flagship cryptocurrency. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spoke mostly negatively about bitcoin a year ago, referring to “money laundering, criminals, environmental damage” and so on. However, a lot has changed since then. “Someone whispered in her ear: if you want to lose, and if you want the US to lose, keep saying that. And she changed the record,” Wood shared an "inside info".

- As part of the Bitcoin-2022 conference, Miami Mayor Francis Suarez presented a statue of a “crypto bull”. According to him, the installation symbolizes the transformation of the city into the “world capital of the crypto industry”.
In contrast to its Wall Street's famous Charging Bull sibling, the Miami bull is cybernetically inspired and has the now-famous "laser eyes." The crypto community seems to like the new statue. Morgan Creek Digital co-founder Anthony Pompliano wrote that “the bulls are in control,” while Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao called the installation “pretty cool.”

- Morningstar analysts posted a report claiming that cryptocurrencies are no match for the stock and bond markets in terms of returns. At the same time, they note that bitcoin “is still too risky to be compared to gold.” The authors of the report argue that, despite the prospect of significant profits that the cryptocurrency market can offer its participants, one must be very careful with it.
“Every breathtaking rally has led to an equally brutal crash at the end. Cryptocurrencies lack a fundamental anchor, such as the face value of bonds or the discounted cash flows of stocks,” Morningstar notes.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 17, 2022, 06:35:41 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 18 - 22, 2022


EUR/USD: Fed's Apples and ECB's Oranges

The dollar continues to strengthen, while the EUR/USD pair moves down. A week's low was recorded at 1.0757 after the ECB meeting on Thursday, April 14. After correction, the final chord, sounded at around 1.0808.

We named three reasons for the growth of the US currency in the previous forecast. The first is the difference between the monetary policies of the Fed and the ECB. Now, the probability of further tightening the position of the US Central bank has increased even more against the background of the latest data on inflation in the United States: the consumer price index has exceeded the forty-year high and reached 8.5%. Such an acceleration of inflation may force the regulator to act more vigorously and to revise its plans to raise the key rate and reduce the balance sheet in May.

New York Fed President John Williams, who is also vice chairman of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), said in an interview with Bloomberg that it makes sense for the Fed to bring interest rates to a neutral level as soon as possible, which, not stimulating, it does not hinder economic growth, and is in the range from 2% to 2.5%. Therefore, a 0.5% increase in federal borrowing costs at the May FOMC meeting looks quite realistic.

In contrast to the Fed's hawks, their European counterparts remain extremely dovish. The ECB left the interest rate unchanged at 0% at its meeting on April 14, which, in fact, was expected. Moreover, the Bank's representatives have already said earlier that the growth in the cost of lending in the context of continuing economic uncertainty could do more harm than good.

The head of the regulator, Christine Lagarde, confirmed at a press conference that followed the meeting that the ECB is moving more slowly than the Fed, and that the Eurozone will be hit harder by the military actions in Ukraine. The American and European economies, according to Ms. Lagarde, are as incomparable as apples and oranges. Such a fruity allegory made a strong impression on the market, as a result of which the EUR/USD pair collapsed to the zone of two-year lows.

Indeed, the current economic situation in the euro area does not inspire optimism and, according to many experts, will continue to worsen in the future. The German economic sentiment index published last week fell to a new multi-month low: minus 41.0 (minus 39.3 a month earlier). The index of current economic conditions of this locomotive of the European economy also fell to minus 30.8 in April (minus 21.4 in March). Against this background, the German GDP growth forecast for 2022 was lowered from 4.5% to 2.7%.

The situation may become even more complicated, as the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen and the head of EU diplomacy Josep Borrell announced their intention to include restrictions on the export of hydrocarbons from Russia in the next package of anti-Russian sanctions. Thus, the risk of stagflation in Europe remains at a fairly high level.

We mentioned another reason for the pressure on the euro - the presidential elections in France in the previous review. Their first round took place on Sunday April 10. So far, the incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is leading with 27.84% of the vote. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally Party, gained 23.15%. The gap is not very large and there is still a possibility that the opposition may win in the second round on April 24. Its leader Marine Le Pen is a Eurosceptic. Please note that she called for almost the exit of the country from the Eurozone back in 2017. And if this lady comes to power, the EUR/USD pair, according to a number of analysts, may fall to the level of 1.0500, or even lower.

There is another factor pushing the pair south, which is the deterioration of global risk appetite. The S&P500 stock index has been falling for the third week in a row, while demand for safe-haven assets such as the dollar and US Treasuries, on the contrary, is growing.

At the moment, 50% of analysts vote for further strengthening of the dollar. The opposite opinion is shared by 40% and the remaining 10% of experts have taken a neutral position. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 15% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold.

The nearest support is located at the level of 1.0800. The nearest target for EUR/USD  bears will be April 14 low at 1.0757. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. The bulls will try to lift the pair above the 1.1000 level and, if possible, reach the 1.1050 zone. But to do this, they first need to overcome the 1.0840 and 1.0900-1.0930 resistances.

The upcoming week's calendar includes speeches by Fed and ECB heads Jerome Powell and Christine Lagarde on Thursday April 21. Data on unemployment and manufacturing activity in the US will also be published on this day. As for the indicators of business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, they will become known on Friday, April 22.

GBP/USD: Battle for 1.3000

In the previous forecast, most experts (65%) supported the correction of the GBP/USD pair to the north and were absolutely right. It seemed at the beginning of the week that the victory was on the side of the bears: they managed to overcome the support in the 1.3000 zone and lower the pair to 1.2972.

Recall that 1.3000 is a key support/resistance level as it is not only the March 15 low, but also the 2021-2022 low. The bulls managed to seize the initiative on Wednesday, April 13, break through this resistance, reach the height of 1.3147 and complete the week also above it, at around 1.3060.

The pound was supported by a possible tactical victory of the Bank of England over the FRS in the fight for raising interest rates. Inflation in the UK increased from 6.2% to 7.0%. The Bank of England predicted that it would peak in April, accelerating to 7.2%. However, a number of banks did not agree with the regulator's opinion, believing that inflation will not stop at this point, reaching 9.0% in April, and then its growth will continue. Therefore, the Bank of England will have to do something about it. And this “something” is, of course, another increase in interest rates. It was this prospect that pushed the British currency to growth.

We can expect the battle for 1.3000 to continue next week. If the victory is on the side of the bears, they will try to update the April 13 low of 1.2972 and open the way to the November 2020 lows around 1.2850, and then to the September 2020 lows in the zone 1.2700. The nearest support is 1.3050. 30% of analysts vote for the victory of the bears, while the majority (70%) side with the bulls. The resistance levels are 1.3100, 1.3150 and the zone 1.3190-1.3215, then 1.3270-1.3325 and 1.3400. Among the indicators on D1, the advantage of the reds is evident. Among the oscillators, 75% are colored in this color, another 15% are green and 10% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side.

Among the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the speeches of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey on April 21 and 22. Data on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the UK will also be published on Friday, April 22.

USD/JPY: Do We Expect New Anti-records from the Yen?

(https://i.imgur.com/O0hDlYr.jpg)

It seems that nothing can stop the fall of the yen and the growth of the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese currency sets an anti-record after an anti-record, and the pair recorded another high at 126.67. The last time it climbed so high was on May 01, 2002, that is, 20 years ago.

We noted in the last review that the majority of Japanese people are against the weak yen. However, despite this, the Bank of Japan still refuses to raise the key rate and reduce monetary easing. The regulator believes that maintaining economic activity is much more important than fighting inflation. And this divergence with the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy is pushing the USD/JPY further north.

The pair closed the week's trading session at 126.37. 45% of analysts vote for maintaining the uptrend next week. A little more, 55%, remembering a powerful correction to the south after a similar rally in the last week of March, expect something similar now. It should be noted here that when switching to the forecast for may-June, the number of supporters of the dollar strengthening increases to 80%. We have already cited Rabobank strategists who believe that a quick USD/JPY jump above 125.00 will seriously increase the likelihood that the Japanese regulator will revise its quantitative easing (QE) program. And this jump took place last week.

There is complete unanimity among the indicators on D1: 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators look up, although 35% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Without a doubt, the main support in the coming days will be the levels of 126.00 and 125.00. Then, taking into account the high volatility of the pair, we can single out the zones 123.65-124.05, 122.35-123.00 and 120.60-121.30. As for the plans of the bulls, they will try to update the high of April 15, and rise above 127.00. An attempt to designate their subsequent goals, focusing on the levels of 20 years ago, will rather look like fortune telling.

There are no expected releases of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: April 12: Space Flight Day. But not for bitcoin.

It is impossible to call the first half of April successful for the crypto market. And if bitcoin was still trying to jump over the 200-day SMA two weeks ago, on April 04, then the bulls completely capitulated and a local low was recorded at $39.210 on April 12. It is noteworthy that Cosmonautics Day is celebrated on this day: Yuri Gagarin went into space and circled the planet Earth on April 12, 1961, for the first time in the world. The BTC/USD pair did not make a breakthrough to the stars. Rather, we observed a fall from orbit.

As of this writing, on the evening of Friday, April 15, the pair is trading around $40,440. The total market capitalization has slightly decreased and is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at the level of $1.880 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index did not stay in the previous orbit either: it fell from 37 to 22 points and returned to the Extreme Fear zone.

We wrote earlier that bitcoin has become a part of the global economy and now demonstrates a strong correlation with stock indices. Therefore, its quotes chart is largely congruent, first of all, with the S&P500 chart. So, as of March 2022, according to Arcana Research, the correlation coefficient between BTC and S&P500 was 0.497. The main cryptocurrency falls and rises after the stock market. And that, in turn, falls or rises depending on the actions of the US Federal Reserve. There is no longer any question of bitcoin's independence.

As we have already mentioned, there has recently been a clear trend towards the accumulation of digital gold. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimps” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation. So why doesn't hodle sentiment lead to higher prices?

The answer is simple: no new investors. The old ones either go into the state of long-term holders of coins, or get rid of them. Approximately $439 million worth of crypto positions were liquidated on April 12 alone, according to Coinglass. At the same time, more than 88% of closed orders accounted for long positions. Bitcoin futures contracts for $160 million were also closed. But there is no strong inflow of new investments into the crypto sector.

Investors have lost their appetite for risk since the end of March, the DXY dollar index and US 10-year bond yields reach new highs on a regular basis. Due to rising inflation, which reached 8.5% in the US in March, the markets are waiting for the US Central Bank to raise interest rates again at the May meeting, and not by 0.25%, but immediately by 0.5%. This is the reason why interest from high-risk assets flows to more conservative instruments.

According to Bloomberg analysts, the value of the flagship cryptocurrency may soon fall to $26,000. The experts emphasized that if the technical analysis pattern called “bear flag” works, then such a scenario will be inevitable. In their opinion, the BTC rate is now on its way to testing a key support level around $37,500. If it does not hold above this mark, the market is in for a disaster.

Analyst Jeffrey Halley's forecast sounds slightly more optimistic. He believes that the flagship cryptocurrency continues to trade within the established range, the lower limit of which is at $36,500. If BTC falls even more, it can lead to serious losses for traders and investors. However, if the price of bitcoin soars in the near future above the upper limit of the range of $47,500, this will be a prerequisite for reaching a new record high.

There are also influencers who are not worried or upset by the current market situation at all. These include Michael Saylor, CEO of Microstrategy, a company known for its investments in bitcoin, and Cathie Wood, head of investment company Arch Invest, who still believe in bitcoin and look forward to its growth.

Saylor and Wood spoke at the Bitcoin 2022 conference in Miami and concluded that the Fed's monetary policy will continue to be inflationary, pushing prices up. In such a situation, according to Cathie Wood, bitcoin, as a means of hedging, has great potential for growth and its price could reach a record $1 million per coin. “It takes quite a bit of effort to do this,” the head of Arch Invest said. "We don't need much. All we need is for 2.5% of all assets to be converted to bitcoin.”

Well-known writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki has a similar opinion, he believes that the US dollar and other markets are on the verge of collapse due to rising food, oil and energy prices, as well as widespread inflation. The author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad assured that what is happening in the world of finance is a sign of a coming crisis, and this process will simply destroy half the US population. He noted that cryptocurrencies in this situation are a good tool to reduce risks, but not all people resort to using this asset class. Kiyosaki emphasized that now 40% of Americans do not even have $1,000 in their savings. The inflation rate is rising, and this figure will soon exceed 50%. Then, according to the investor, a revolution will begin.

Morningstar analysts posted a report claiming that cryptocurrencies are no match for the stock and bond markets in terms of returns. At the same time, they note that bitcoin “is still too risky to be compared to gold.” The authors of the report argue that, despite the prospect of significant profits that the cryptocurrency market can offer its participants, one must be very careful with it. “Every breathtaking rally has led to an equally brutal crash at the end,” Morningstar notes.

It is difficult to argue that speculation or investment in digital assets is quite risky. But there are certain things in this business, as in any other, that allow you to get additional benefits. It is about them that we regularly talk about in our crypto life hacks section. This time it's about heat energy and a man named Jonathan Yuan who has kids who love to swim in the pool. However, they almost did not do this because the water was too cold.

Yuan himself is actively involved in mining and drew attention to the fact that his equipment generates too much heat. He purchased a heat exchanger and used it to install a system for heating water. According to him, thanks to this invention, the temperature in the pool can be maintained at about 32° C, and the crypto farm receives a water cooling system. Jonathan Yuan notes that almost everything can be heated according to this principle: living premises, garages and so on. It is assumed that the heating temperature can reach a maximum threshold of 60°C.

There are nuances here, however. When the inventor pushed his ASIC miners to the limit, the temperature in the pool rose above 43°C. His children did not like it either and they stopped swimming again. So, the ancient Greek “father” of medicine, Hippocrates, was right, saying “good things in small doses”.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 20, 2022, 04:13:44 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/5NzycOg.jpg)

- According to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite Index has reached its highest since July 2020. The similar indicator (30-day moving average) between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historical low, the one between the first cryptocurrency and the dollar - to a minimum since March 2020.
Experts have explained such dynamics by tightening the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. An increase in interest rates leads to a strengthening dollar and a fall in high-tech stocks. Accordingly, the growth in the price relationship between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reflects that digital gold belongs to the category of risky assets.
Physical gold is currently acting as a hedge against inflation, while bitcoin ETPs are recording an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC will be updated by the end of the month. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index.

- The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Protection Agency (CISA), the FBI and the US Treasury have issued a joint warning regarding North Korean hackers. The authorities have said they are seeing attacks targeting the cryptocurrency and blockchain sectors, including exchanges, DeFi protocols, venture capital funds, individual large crypto asset holders and NFTs.
According to a report by Chainalysis, North Korean hackers carried out at least seven cyberattacks on cryptocurrency platforms last year, stealing about $400 million worth of digital assets.

- Analyst software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up bitcoin reserves. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
MicroStrategy is the first public company to invest part of its own capital in digital gold. According to the entrepreneur, this decision increased the value of the company for customers and shareholders. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, the software provider holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. MacroStrategy made its last $190.5 million purchase in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

- The price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. This forecast was given by Antoni Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, in an interview with CNBC. At the same time, he noted that he was “concerned” about the short-term prospects for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.
Trenchev stated in January 2020 that the cryptocurrency would “easily reach” $50,000 by the end of the year. He recalled that everyone laughed at him then. However, the forecast came true, albeit with some delay: the price of digital gold reached the designated mark in February 2021.

- Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Nicholas Merten believes that BTC could set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”
According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.

- A well-known analyst aka PlanB has identified two catalysts that could cause the next bitcoin rally. “It is definitely difficult to say what will help move to the qualitatively next level of implementation. But if we draw logical conclusions, then the second or the third El Salvador can really change the situation. If little El Salvador were not alone in introducing bitcoin in Latin America, and Mexico, Brazil or Argentina joined it, then the situation would be different, and it would be much more difficult for the IMF to put pressure on countries.”
The second catalyst is the everyday adoption of cryptocurrencies by ordinary people, especially if the process is supported by institutional market participants.

- “The NFT bubble is starting to burst,” said Nassim Nicholas Taleb, best-selling author of the "Black Swan", who predicted the approach of the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Speaking to Fortune, Taleb cited the recent NFT (non-fungible token) sale of Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey as an example. His first online tweet was sold as an NFT last year for nearly $3 million. Today, it costs only a few thousand, more precisely, a little over $18,000.
Taleb's theory of "black swans" is associated with the appearance of ultra-rare events (like a black swan in nature), for which the market is not ready. In 2007, such an event was a sharp drop in house prices, and in 2022, the end of the era of low interest rates and “easy” money that had formed the basis of monetary policy during the pandemic.

- According to a new survey by Engine Insights, children aged 13 to 17 will spend their money differently than their parents. If they had money to invest, their first choice would be stocks (39%) followed by cryptocurrencies (29%) and real estate (29%).
At the same time, more than half of teenagers (51%) admitted that they do not understand the cryptocurrency industry as well as they would like to. The main source of information for 51% of respondents is online video. This is followed by relatives (32%) and websites of investment companies (32%). Parents are only in fourth place: they act as a source of information for 30% of adolescents. However, the school's position is even worse: only 21% of teenagers have learned about investments from their teachers.

- Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and stated that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one. A lot depends on the geopolitical situation in the world currently, so it is very difficult to give accurate price forecasts.
Cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin could drop to a record low below $30,000 amid geopolitical tensions in eastern Europe before starting to rise again.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin is approaching “the point of choosing the direction of the trend.” Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”
According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, bitcoin needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which at the time of writing is at about $47,500. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

- According to Coincub specialists, Germany has displaced Singapore from the position of the most crypto-friendly country. Authors of the report for the Q1 2022 have ranked 46 countries based on a range of factors, including new categories such as the number of initial coin offerings (ICOs) in each country, the prevalence of fraud and the availability of cryptocurrency education courses, etc. Germany's rise in the rankings comes after crypto exchange KuCoin released a report showing that 16% of the country's population aged 18 to 60 own or have traded crypto in the past six months. 41% of these investors intend to increase their investments in the crypto industry in the next six months. Interestingly, Germany was only in fourth place on the Coincub list last year.

- Strike payment service CEO Jack Mallers believes that payment services must constantly improve, and bitcoin does it best. In his opinion, the use of bitcoins as a payment network "is superior to the systems of traditional payment services and banks." In addition, the head of Strike compared the first cryptocurrency with the Internet, saying that they provide freedom: anyone can use both. Jack Mallers also advises cryptocurrency holders not to spend bitcoin as the asset is meant to be a long-term investment.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 24, 2022, 03:38:56 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 25 - 29, 2022


EUR/USD: Words Drive Trends

The main drivers of the past week were statements by important ECB and FRS officials. However, the beginning of the five-day period was relatively calm: the Easter weekend had its effect. Unlike the United States, Europe rested not only on Friday April 15, but also on Monday 18. The dollar was slightly supported on Monday by the comments from the representatives of the American regulator. According to Rafael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, the base interest rate may be about 1.75% by the end of 2022, and Chicago Fed President Charles Evans believes that it will reach 2.25-2.50%. And the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, James Bullard, announced a possible rise in the key rate by 0.75% immediately at the May meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee).

The situation changed dramatically on Tuesday: the EUR/USD pair reversed and, having soared by 175 points, reached the height of 1.0935 on Thursday, April 21. It was not the dollar but the euro that was supported this time by hawkish comments from the members of the European Central Bank Governing Council. Thus, the head of the Central Bank of Latvia, Martins Kazaks, said on Wednesday that an increase in the ECB rate is possible as early as July. His colleague, the head of the National Bank of Belgium, Pierre Wunsch, gave an interview to Bloomberg the next day, in which he noted that interest rates could become positive this year. ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos confirmed this possibility, according to him the quantitative easing (QE) program may be completed in July, after which the path to raising rates will be open.

An additional impetus to the pair was given by the improvement in risk sentiment and the decline in the yield of American Treasuries. This sent the DXY dollar index down 1% after hitting a two-year high on Tuesday.

The situation changed for the third time on Thursday afternoon. The dollar went on a new offensive, assisted by a rise in the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose to 2.974%, the highest level since December 2018. This happened thanks to Jerome Powell. Speaking at a meeting within the framework of the International Monetary Fund spring session, the head of the Fed confirmed the high probability of raising the interest rate by 0.5% at the next FOMC meeting on May 3-4. Such a move is under consideration, Powell said, as the U.S. job market is already "overheated." He did not rule out either that the rate could be increased by another 0.5% in June.

As for the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, speaking at the same IMF event, she refused to comment on the likelihood of an increase in the euro rate in July. “This will depend on the economic performance,” Ms. Lagarde said vaguely, after which the EUR/USD pair flew down.

The head of the ECB decided to slightly tighten her position on the last day of the working session, April 22. Ыhe did not deny at this point that the European Central Bank's purchase program could end at the beginning of Q3 and added that interest rates could rise as early as 2022. Her words sounded more hawkish compared to Thursday's, but that didn't help the euro. The pair found its bottom only at 1.0770, after which there was a slight correction to the north and a finish at 1.0800.

The euro was slightly supported by the results of the televised debate between French President Emmanuel Macron and opposition leader Marine Le Pen. As the poll data showed, 56% of respondents considered that the incumbent president was more convincing in the debate than his rival.

The second round of the presidential elections in France will be held on Sunday 24 April. Emmanuel Macron won 27.84% of the vote in the first round. Marine Le Pen, head of the far-right National Rally Party, received 23.15%. Recall that she belongs to the Eurosceptics, and had called for almost the exit of the country from the Eurozone back in 2017. And if this lady comes to power, the EUR/USD pair, according to a number of analysts, may fall to the level of 1.0500, or even lower.

At the time of writing the review, the results of the election are still unknown, so the majority of analysts (50%) did not make any forecasts. 35% believe that the dollar will continue to strengthen. The opposite opinion is shared by only 15%. All trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 15% of the latter give signals that the pair is oversold. The nearest support is located at the level of 1.0770. The next EUR/USD bear target will be the April 14 low at 1.0757. And if they manage to break through this support, they will then aim for the 2020 low of 1.0635 and the 2016 low of 1.0325. Immediate resistance zone is 1.0830-1.0860, followed by 1.0900, the April 21  high of 1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the release of macro data, the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known on Tuesday, April 26.  Data on GDP and the state of consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone will be received on Thursday, April 28 and Friday, April 29. In addition, preliminary annual data on US GDP will be released on Thursday.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.3000 Is Lost. Will there be a counterattack?

We assumed in the previous review that we are in for the continuation of the battle of bulls and bears, and the front line will pass in the zone of 1.3000. Recall that 1.3000 is a key support/resistance level as it is not only the March 15 low, but also the 2021-2022 low.

And now we must say that the bulls have lost this battle. Having raised the GBP/USD pair to the height of 1.3090, they finally weakened, and it flew down. The local bottom was fixed at 1.2822 on Friday, and the final chord sounded a little higher, in the zone of 1.2830.

The reasons for this collapse of the pound lie on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. On the one hand, this is the hawkish position of the US Federal Reserve and the growth of US Treasury yields. On the other hand, there are cautious comments from the Bank of England (BoE) and weak macro statistics from the UK.

Commenting on the state of the economy on Thursday, the head of the British regulator, Andrew Bailey, said that the inflationary shock in the United Kingdom has more in common with the Eurozone than with the US. "We shouldn't be complacent about inflation expectations," Bailey added, reiterating that they were dealing with "a very tight line between fighting inflation and the impact of a shock on real incomes."

The day after the speech of the head of the Bank of England, the UK Office for National Statistics dealt another blow to the pound. It reported that retail sales fell 1.4% in March. This indicator followed the February decline of 0.5% and turned out to be much worse than the forecast, according to which the fall should have been only 0.3%.

Such a massive failure will most likely send investors into a shock and it will take time to restore their appetite for British currency purchases. The bears will try to build on their success and push the GBP/USD pair further down. 65% of analysts vote for this development, the remaining 35% expect the pair to correct to the north.

There is a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% both among trend indicators and oscillators. True, as for the latter, a third is in the oversold zone. The immediate goal of the bears is to overcome the support of 1.2800, update the October 2020 lows around 1.2760 and open their way to the September 2020 lows in the zone 1.2685-1.2700. More distant targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2085 and 1.2000. As for the bears, they will try to regain the initiative and fight again for 1.3000. However, they will need to overcome the resistances of 1.2860 and 1.2915 on this way. In case of a successful assault on 1.3000, resistance levels 1.3100, 1.3150 and the zone 1.3190-1.3215 will follow.

There are no significant data releases on the UK economy for the coming week. The only thing that can be noted is the release of data on the housing market of this country on Friday, April 29.

USD/JPY: Will the Bank of Japan Stand Its Ground?

The Japanese currency is hitting one anti-record after another, and the expectation that the past week would bring another one proved to be absolutely correct. The USD/JPY pair recorded another high at 129.39 on Wednesday, April 20. The last time it climbed this high was in May 2002, that is, 20 years ago.

The reasons for the fall of the yen are the same: divergence from the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. Despite the fact that the majority of the Japanese are against the weak yen, the Bank of Japan still refuses to raise the key rate even to zero and does not want to cut monetary stimulus. The regulator believes that maintaining economic activity is much more important than fighting inflation.

The regular meeting of the Japanese Central Bank will take place next week, on Thursday, April 28. According to strategists of Singapore's UOB Group (United Overseas Bank), the regulator will once again leave the parameters of its monetary policy unchanged. “We are confident,” write UOB economists, “that the BOJ will maintain its current loose monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive stimulus, possibly until fiscal year 2023 at least.”

The yen received some support from reports that Treasury Secretary Shunichi Suzuki discussed the idea of coordinated foreign exchange intervention with his counterpart, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. And it seems that "the American side sounded as if it would positively consider this idea." However, a source from the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampened hopes for a joint effort between the two countries, refusing to comment on the details of the conversation between Suzuki and Yellen.

Having renewed a multi-year high, the pair USD/JPY bounced back a little in the second half of the five-day period and ended it at the level of 128.53. 40% of experts vote for the bulls to storm new heights, 30% have taken the opposite position and 30% adhere to neutrality. Among indicators on D1, 100% of trend indicators look north, among oscillators, these are 90% of them (a third are in the overbought zone), the remaining 10% point south. The nearest support is located at 127.80-128.00, followed by 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. The resistances are located at levels 128.70, 129.10 and 129.39. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing we can assume is that they will set a high of January 01, 2002, 135.19, as a distant target. Taking into account the fact that the pair has risen by 1400 points over the past 7 weeks, it can reach this height in a month and a half if this pace is maintained.

Aside from the BOJ meeting and its monetary policy report, there is no other important information on the state of the Japanese economy expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC from $30,000 to $200,000

(https://i.imgur.com/bS5wKqr.jpg)

Throughout 2022, bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The reason for such fluctuations, of course, is the US Federal Reserve. Investors cannot finally decide how to behave in the face of tightening monetary policy and rising dollar interest rates. As a result, their appetite for risk falls and flares up again. First of all, this applies to the stock market, along with which digital gold fluctuates as well.

We have repeatedly considered the correlation of the BTC/USD pair with the shares of technology companies. So, according to Arcane Research, the correlation between bitcoin and the Nasdaq Composite index reached its high since July 2020. The same indicator between the first cryptocurrency and gold has fallen to a historic low. It is physical gold that has recently been acting as a hedge against inflation, and its price came close to its historical maximum, reaching $2.070 per ounce on March 08 (the maximum price of $2.075 was recorded on August 2, 2020).

Bitcoin-ETP (Exchange Traded Product) shows an outflow of funds. If the current pace is maintained, the historical anti-record of July 2021 will be updated by the end of the month, when investors withdrew 13,849 BTC. The number of active addresses on the bitcoin network has dropped to 15.6 million, about 30% less than the January 2021 high. Many short-term (less than 155 days) holders and speculators have already parted with their BTC holdings, according to Glassnode data.

The market is currently supported by long-term holders (LTH). As we already wrote, there has recently been a trend towards the accumulation of digital gold among them. The volumes of accumulation began to exceed emission many times over. According to Glassnode, the rate of outflow of coins from centralized platforms has increased to 96,200 BTC per month, which is extremely rare in historical retrospect. In addition to the “whales”, the so-called “shrimp” (addresses with a balance of less than 1 BTC) also contributed to the accumulation, bringing their share to 14.26% of the market supply.

At the moment, about 15% of long-term holders are losing, but they not only continue to store coins, but also acquire new ones, counting on their growth in the future. For example, analytics software provider MicroStrategy intends to “strongly pursue” its strategy and continue to build up reserves in bitcoin. This was stated by CEO Michael Saylor in a letter to the US Securities and Exchange Commission. According to Bitcoin Treasuries, MicroStrategy holds 129,218 BTC worth $5.17 billion in reserves. The company's division made its last purchase of $190.5 million in early April. For comparison, Tesla, which is in second place after MicroStrategy, owns 43,200 BTC worth about $1.7 billion.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, April 22, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion, at $1.850 trillion ($1.880 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index slightly improved its readings: it rose from 22 to 26 points and returned from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone.

The BTC/USD pair is trading around $39,700. The chart of the past four months, with its rising highs and lows, gives investors hope for a further rise in price. However, everything will depend on the May Fed meeting and investor risk sentiment. Recall that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $30,000 by the end of the second quarter due to the decline in the Nasdaq index. The same figure of $30,000 is also mentioned by cryptocurrency analyst and trader Michael van de Poppe, although he points to another reason: geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe due to Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine.

Many other experts do not expect anything good from the BTC/USD pair in the near future either, although they build optimistic forecasts for the medium and long term.   So, according to Anthony Trenchev, CEO of the Nexo crypto-landing platform, the price of the first cryptocurrency may rise above $100,000 over the next 12 months. However, he is "worried" about the short-term outlook for bitcoin. In his opinion, the rate may fall along with traditional stock markets as a result of the US Central Bank curtailing the monetary stimulus program.

Paolo Ardoino, CTO of Bitfinex, predicts similar dynamics of the flagship cryptocurrency. This specialist believes that bitcoin will be “much higher” than $50,000 by the end of 2022. However, he admits a sharp drop in prices in the near future. “At the moment, we are living in conditions of, I would say, global uncertainty in the markets, not only cryptocurrencies, but also stock markets,” Ardoino said.

Cryptocurrency market expert Ali Martinez analyzed the price chart of bitcoin and said that its value could fall to $27,000. It is important for the bulls to stay above the critical support level in order to prevent this from happening. According to the Fibonacci levels, this support is in the $38,530 area. If a breakdown occurs, then the rate of digital gold will fall to $32,853 or even $26,820. Like most analysts, Martinez also believes that one should not focus only on technical analysis and discard the fundamental one, since much depends on the geopolitical situation in the world now.

Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen is confident that bitcoin is approaching "the point of choosing the direction of the trend." Cowen elaborates that this has happened before: “In 2013, bitcoin made a low, then a second, then a third, and eventually began to rise. And then in 2018, when there were higher lows, we thought that the same thing would happen as in 2013, but in the end, bitcoin fell to a new low.”

According to the analyst, in order to restore the bullish trend and reduce the likelihood of a bearish one, the BTC/USD pair needs to rise above the 200-day SMA, which is at around $47,440 at the time of writing. “If bitcoin can muster the courage to rise above its 200-day SMA and move to the $50,000 level, then that would look pretty optimistic. But what happens if the market drops to $30,000 and then bitcoin goes up again? There's a good chance we'll get back to $40,000 or maybe $43,000,” said Benjamin Cowen.

Most likely, the prospect of the return of the flagship cryptocurrency from $30,000 back to $40,000 in the current situation will not please investors very much, since the coin is currently trading in the region of $40,000. Therefore, to cheer them up, we will quote another specialist, Nicholas Merten from DataDash, who believes that BTC can set new record highs as early as next year. According to him, the bulls still have not lost control despite the current market fluctuations: “The market is currently far from impressing investors, but this situation is always observed during the beginning of accumulation. This is how the structure of the trend begins to form.”

According to Merten, the fact that bitcoin has begun to make higher lows and higher highs confirms that the bulls are at the helm, no matter how things look at the moment. The analyst believes that since this situation persists, then the BTC rate has every chance of reaching $150,000 and even $200,000 within the next year.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 27, 2022, 03:27:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/nGSjTpW.jpg)

- The financial company Fidelity Investments plans to provide customers with the opportunity to accumulate bitcoins on pension savings. The Wall Street Journal writes about it. The option will become available this summer to employees of the 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans. The addition of other cryptocurrencies is not ruled out in the future, but the share of digital assets in the portfolio should not exceed 20%.

- The innovative strategy of using bitcoin as the main reserve asset will bring a “bright future” to the software provider MicroStrategy for the coming years. Michael Saylor, CEO of the company, said this in a letter to shareholders. “As of April 14, 2022, MicroStrategy remains the largest bitcoin holder among publicly traded companies. Together with affiliates, it owns 129,218 BTC, purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of about $30,700,” the head of the firm said. According to him, the company's cryptocurrency strategy not only increased its value, but also led to greater recognition, helping to attract customers.

- The price of bitcoin will be $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.
Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain. 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.
Experts were asked to name the top five most effective cryptocurrencies. 87% of respondents included ethereum in it. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%, and Solana was third with 55%. Avalanche and Terra close the top 5 with 31% and 30%, respectively.

¬- Businesses will turn to cryptocurrencies as a neutral financial instrument due to rising geopolitical tensions. This opinion was expressed by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He noted that the world is becoming more and more fragmented, and the US is using the dollar for sanctions pressure. "The dollar is one of the strongest instruments the US has," Zhao said.
According to him, the resulting geopolitical situation will lead to greater acceptance of cryptocurrencies. Companies and even countries will start using them because of the risk of freezing accounts and other obstacles due to sanctions. As a result, this will reduce the dollar's global influence, as the rest of the world is likely to switch to cryptocurrency, albeit in the long run.

- Hollywood film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The book was published in 2020 and tells how the 19-year-old Buterin rallied a group of developers around the idea of creating a “world computer”. The book tells the story of the team's challenges, from increased regulatory scrutiny to the rise of Wall Street interest.
Ridley Scott who is known for his blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian will co-produce the movie. Camilla Russo and Francisco Gordillo, co-founder of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Avenue Investment, will help him with this.

- Cryptocurrency trader and analyst Tony Weiss has updated his forecast. According to him, bitcoin has broken support levels, so the risks of another strong fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen. “If bitcoin closes below $39,500, I will be extremely bearish for the next week and month. This is a very bad signal because the 4-day and the week charts will be completely bearish,” Weiss said.

- Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the main cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. bitcoin is currently inside the “big wedge” pattern, and it will be broken in the coming weeks, the asset itself is expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, Kaleo warned that a break of the $38,500 level could trigger another round of bitcoin's decline and a bounce above $41,000 would not change the situation much.

- Kevin O'Leary, entrepreneur and star of the reality show Shark Tank, believes that the global tightening of mining regulation will force companies to switch to green energy. “The old ways of mining, the era of ignoring politicians, governments, the Securities and Exchange Commission, is over,” O'Leary said. He stated in an interview with First Mover that nuclear and hydropower could take an important place in the crypto mining industry in the future.

- According to analyst Kevin Swenson, one should follow the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange in order to accurately predict trend reversals. This indicator has correctly pointed him to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. “Weekly volumes on Coinbase are my favourite, and this indicator has almost never let me down before.” says the specialist.
Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

- Another analyst, Jason Pizzino, explained under what conditions the bitcoin rate will reach $1 million. At the same time, the expert expressed confidence that this will happen sooner or later. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.
The specialist said that he fully agrees with the opinion of the head of ARK Invest Catherine Wood and CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who believe that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the $1 million price mark. According to their forecasts, this will happen closer to 2030. Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

- According to Chainalysis, crypto investors worldwide earned $162.7 billion in 2021, up 400% from the previous year ($32.5 billion), as the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. In terms of profitability, ethereum is ahead of bitcoin with $76.3 billion, which brought investors $74.7 billion. At the same time, American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. For comparison, British investors earned "only" $8.2 billion.

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort has reconsidered his attitude to the cryptocurrency market. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013.
Now Belfort has said he is a firm believer in cryptocurrencies and blockchain, despite once making a YouTube video in which he called bitcoin a collective delusion. He changed his attitude towards cryptocurrency because he learned how it works. However, he is somewhat distressed by the problem of fraud in this industry. The financier admitted that he himself was robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction, which was very frustrating. And that's why he now actively advocates for tighter regulation of the crypto industry.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 28, 2022, 04:38:14 PM
New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022

(https://i.imgur.com/OcBnpqn.jpg)

The NordFX brokerage company started a new super lottery, which will give away 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 two super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize fund will be 100,000 USD.  Draws will take place on July 04, October 04, 2022, and January 04, 2023.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. It is enough to have a Pro account in NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming a winner.

Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 01, 2022, 01:51:44 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 02 - 06, 2022


EUR/USD: Euro Updates Five-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Fed (FOMC) Meeting

(https://i.imgur.com/ojGSy2o.jpg)

The DXY index that measures the US dollar against a basket of six other major currencies updated its 20-year high on Thursday, April 28. The reason for this growth is still the same, and we have repeatedly written about it: the Fed began to tighten its monetary policy earlier than other major central banks. It is expected that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) may raise the key interest rate by 0.5% at the next meeting on May 4. This is the minimum. For example, James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, did not rule out that the rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away.

Other national regulators are moving much more slowly (or not at all) amid the US Fed's hawkish activity. Their economies are showing weaker recovery from the crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, and this does not allow central banks to quickly curtail monetary programs incentives (QE) and increase borrowing costs.

Of course, this applies to the European Union as well, which also suffers additional economic losses caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia due to the military invasion of Ukraine. Recall that the dependence of the EU countries on Russian energy resources is very high.

Against this background, the dollar continued to push the European currency, and the EUR/USD pair rewrote the five-year low, falling to 1.0470 on April 28. Thus, the losses of the European currency has exceeded 700 points in April alone. There was a slight rebound at the very end of the five-day period and a finish at the level of 1.0545.

The level of 1.0500 plays the role of a support, which may lead to a reduction in the volume of short positions and, as a result, to a fairly strong correction to the north. If this does not happen, then the next target for the bears will be the 2016 low of 1.0325. It is possible that we will see the parity of the euro and the dollar 1:1 soon. However, much depends on what happens to the interest rate at the US Federal Reserve meeting on May 4, and what will be said by the management of this regulator at the subsequent press conference.

At the time of writing, analysts' votes are almost evenly divided. 35% are confident that the dollar will continue to strengthen, 30% have the opposite opinion, the remaining 35% have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Not surprisingly, with the current dynamics of the pair, 100% of the trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are colored red, although 25% of the latter give signals of the pair being oversold. The nearest support is located at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low of 1.0470, and the bears' further goals for EUR/USD are described above. The nearest resistance zone is 1.0550-1.0600, 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

As for the coming week, in addition to event No. 1, the Fed meeting, the calendar includes the release of data on retail sales in Germany and business activity in US manufacturing sector (ISM) on Monday, May 02. ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to speak the next day. We will find out the volume of retail sales in the European Union as a whole on Wednesday, May 04. The ADP report on US private sector employment will be published on this day as well. Another portion of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, May 06, including such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: The Pound Updates its Two-Year Low, We Are Waiting for the Meeting of the Bank of England

We stated in the previous review that the bulls' battle for 1.3000 is lost. Answering the question whether there will be a counteroffensive, the majority of experts (65%) answered that no, there won't be, and the pound will continue to fall. This forecast turned out to be absolutely correct, and despite the oversold signals, the GBP/USD pair reached a local bottom at 1.2410 on Thursday, April 28. The last time it was at this level was in June 2020. As for the last chord of the week, it sounded in the 1.2575 zone.

Next week will see not only the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, but also that of the Bank of England. According to forecasts, the regulator of the United Kingdom may raise the interest rate from 0.75% to 1.0%. However, since its meeting will be held on May 5, that is, a day later than the Fed, the nine members of the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) of the Bank will have time to adjust their position depending on the decision of their overseas colleagues.

In the meantime, the vast majority of experts (70%) remain neutral ahead of both meetings. 15% of them have taken the liberty of predicting a further weakening of the British pound, the same amount expects the pair to correct to the north. There is still a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% among both trend indicators and oscillators. The immediate target of the bears is to overcome the support at 1.2500, further targets for the pair's decline are located at the levels of 1.2400, 1.2250, 1.2075 and 1.2000. As for the bulls, if they manage to seize the initiative, they will face resistance in the zones of 1.2600, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Regarding the release of statistics on the economy of the United Kingdom, the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in the manufacturing sector will be published on Tuesday, May 3. The Composite PMI and the PMI in the services sector will be announced the next day, a little ahead of the Bank of England meeting. The publication of PMI in the UK construction sector on Friday 06 May will complete the picture of business activity.

USD/JPY: The Yen Updates a 20-Year low. What else to expect?

A new anti-record for the Japanese currency was fixed at 131.25 yen per dollar. The USD/JPY pair made a correction to the south in the first half of the week­: up to the level of 126.92. But then, following the meeting of the Bank of Japan, we witnessed a new rally of 433 points. This was followed by a rather powerful bounce by 190 points and a finish at 129.75.

Some experts expected that the Japanese regulator might step back a bit from its ultra-soft monetary policy. Moreover, before that, various government officials had talked a lot about the fact that Japanese households are unhappy with the surge in inflation, and that, given the actions of the US Federal Reserve, it would be time to adjust their monetary policy. But the Bank of Japan remained true to itself, leaving the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged and declaring its readiness to buy an unlimited number of bonds each session as needed.

According to many analysts, the Central Bank will maintain its soft monetary policy unchanged throughout 2022, and will also maintain massive incentives, perhaps at least until fiscal year 2023.

The yen was further hit by rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which rose 48 bp to 2.83% in April alone, widening the gap with similar Japanese securities. And here is the result: if the pound fell to a two-year low, the euro - to a five-year low, the yen fell to the lowest values in the last twenty years!

35% of experts vote for the fact that the bulls will storm new heights, 50% have taken the opposite position. The remaining 15% are neutral, waiting for the May meeting of the Fed. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are looking north, but among oscillators, 15% signal that the pair is overbought.

The nearest support is located at 129.00-129.40, followed by 127.80-128.00, 127.45, 126.30-126.75 zone and levels 126.00 and 125.00. Resistances are located at the levels of 130.00-130.35 and 131.00-131.25. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing that can be assumed is that they will set the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 as their goal.  If the pair's growth rate is maintained, it can reach this height as early as in June.

No important information regarding the state of the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders also need to keep in mind the two upcoming holidays: Japan celebrates Constitution Day on Tuesday, May 03, and the Greenery Day on Wednesday May 04.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Trends, Forecasts and Hollywood

Bitcoin has been moving along the Pivot Point around $40,000 throughout 2022, trying to either reach $50,000 or fall to $30,000. The fight between bulls and bears continued last week as well. Looking at the chart of the BTC/USD pair, it is clear that the bears have had a clear advantage over the past five weeks. Bulls, of course, are making attempts to turn the tide, but no success is yet to be seen.

At the time of writing, Friday evening, April 29, the total crypto market capitalization is still below the important psychological level of $2 trillion: at $1.752 trillion ($1.850 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly worsened its readings: it has dropped from 26 to 23 points and has returned from the Fear zone to the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair is trading around $38,700.

The correlation of the flagship cryptocurrency with stock indices such as the S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite is still very strong. The correction in US tech companies began late last year, and many of the industry's stocks are currently trading 50-70% below their highs. Investors, anticipating a sharp rise in interest rates by the Fed, switched to the US dollar, losing their appetite for risk assets, which hit the stock and cryptocurrency markets. The high risk of stagflation in many developed countries, the new coronavirus outbreak in China, the escalation of the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and other processes affecting the global economy do not add optimism. So, there are many chances for bitcoin to go down to $30,000 per coin.

According to trader and analyst Tony Weiss, the main cryptocurrency has broken support levels, so the risks of another big fall are high. The coin needs to hold around $39,500 for this not to happen.

Cryptocurrency trader nicknamed Kaleo also believes that bitcoin has not yet reached the level that can be considered a bottom with confidence. According to him, the cryptocurrency is preparing to retest the lows last seen in mid-2021. (Recall that the BTC/USD pair found a bottom at $29.066 on June 22, 2021). Bitcoin is currently inside a big wedge pattern and according to Kaleo, it will be broken in the coming weeks, with the asset itself expected to fall by about 28%. In addition, the expert warned that even if we see a bounce above $41,000, it will not change the situation much.

Analyst Kevin Swenson has suggested a way to accurately predict trend reversals. According to him, it is necessary to monitor the weekly volume of bitcoins on the Coinbase crypto exchange. This indicator has correctly pointed for Swenson to the price peaks and bottom of bitcoin since 2017. Swenson noted that investors need to see a significant increase in volume after the correction to be completely sure of a bottom: “There is a small chance that large volumes will be observed when the rate bounces. It takes time to form a bullish trend. The bulls work together to raise the price, while the bear is usually alone.”

But, despite the current bearish trend, not everything is so sad. The price of bitcoin may reach $65,185 by the end of 2022. This forecast was given by financial experts interviewed by Finder. According to them, bitcoin will cost $179,280 on December 31, 2025, and $420,240 at the end of 2030. More than two-thirds of those surveyed believe that now is the time to buy the first cryptocurrency. Only 9% were in favor of exiting the asset.

87% of respondents included ethereum in the list of the most effective cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin was in second place with 71%. Half of the experts believe that bitcoin will be eventually displaced from the position of the most popular cryptocurrency by a more advanced blockchain, 38% are sure that digital gold will stay on the throne.

Recall that giving a long-term forecast, the head of ARK Invest, Katherine Wood, and CEO of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, expressed the opinion that the flagship cryptocurrency will definitely reach the price mark of $1 million. According to them, this will happen closer to 2030.

The same figure of $1 million was voiced by another specialist, Jason Pizzino last week, who explained under what conditions the coin will reach this mark. To do this, firstly, the flagship cryptocurrency needs to get rid from the dependence on the Nasdaq index. If this dependence continues, bitcoin and ethereum will lose value. In addition, it is important for bitcoin to stop associating itself with the blockchain. This cryptocurrency must be more like gold than part of the technology sector in order to become a global reserve asset.

Pizzino emphasized that the growth in the value of the flagship cryptocurrency by 25 times looks fantastic at the moment. However, the asset price increased 22 times between December 2018 and November 2021, so nothing is impossible in such a rally.

Chainalysis experts indirectly confirmed Jason Pizzino's bullish sentiment. According to them, crypto investors earned $162.7 billion in 2021, which is 400% more than in the previous year, 2020 ($32.5 billion). This happened because the prices of the two main cryptocurrencies, bitcoin and ethereum, rose to record levels. At $76.3 billion, ethereum outperformed bitcoin, which brought in $74.7 billion to investors. American investors earned the most, making a profit of $47 billion, which is more than their colleagues from the UK, Germany, Japan and China. By comparison, British savers earned "only" $8.2 billion.

And at the end of the review, some news from the world ... of books and movies. Firstly, the film company Scott Free Productions intends to film the book The Infinite Machine, dedicated to ethereum and Vitalik Buterin. It was written by Camilla Russo, a well-known journalist in the crypto industry. The movie will be co-produced by such a Hollywood luminary as Ridley Scott, known for his work on the blockbusters Alien, Gladiator, Blade Runner and The Martian.

Another newsmaker of the week was former stockbroker Jordan Belfort. Recall that this American entrepreneur pleaded guilty to stock market fraud and stock scams in 1999, for which he served 22 months in prison. He published a memoir in 2007, The Wolf of Wall Street, which was adapted into a film of the same name in 2013. And now this financial “wolf” admitted that he himself was recently robbed of about $300,000 worth of crypto assets. He saw the transfer of funds, but could not cancel the transaction. The irony of fate...


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 04, 2022, 03:14:25 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ZyJPkw2.jpg)

- Kenneth Griffin, CEO of Citadel hedge fund, said his company will enter the digital asset market as a liquidity provider. According to Griffin, despite his skepticism about cryptocurrencies, he is forced to recognize their value. The billionaire compared these digital assets to his collection of American abstract paintings, noting that bitcoin is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. “Why is a painting worth $10 million? This is oil on canvas. So, the value is in the eye of the beholder,” he explained.

- Another billionaire, Warren Buffett, said he sees no value in bitcoins, CNBC reports. “What would I do with them? One way or another, I would have to sell them back to you. It won't do anything. Apartments will bring rent, and farms will produce food. Assets must produce something, bring real benefits,” the legendary investor explained.
Buffett is known for his negative attitude towards bitcoin. In February 2020, he called the first cryptocurrency "complete zero" with no value. The billionaire had earlier predicted the collapse of the crypto industry. When talking about bitcoin, he used terms like “rat poison squared” and “illusion without unique value.”

- One of the largest banks in Argentina, Banco Galicia, has opened access to cryptocurrencies for its clients. Users can purchase bitcoin, ethereum, ripple and USDC stablecoin on its platform. The organization explained this initiative by demand from the clients. Another Argentine bank, Brubank, also announced the launch of a cryptocurrency service.

- Bitcoin will test the $28,000 level, according to Peter Brandt, trader and head of Factor LLC. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented. At the same time, he stressed that the negative outlook does not make him a “bitcoin hater”.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq-100 index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.
However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

- Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before the bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally.
As the BTC price dropped below the $40,000 level again, Cowen outlined a scenario for a possible fall. The trader noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year uptrend: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”
Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020. Cowen doesn't expect a repeat, but notes that its mark is currently around $21,400.

- Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”
According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior analyst Mike McGlone believes that a sharp correction in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the Fed to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."
“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.

- Brian Armstrong, speaking at the Milken Institute conference, stated that despite the rather unstable state of the crypto market since the beginning of 2022, he remains optimistic about the future of the industry. Armstrong added that the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.
Armstrong noted a significant increase in the adoption of cryptocurrencies in the United States. According to him, “it is increasingly difficult to meet a real crypto-skeptic in the District of Columbia” and added that more than 50% of the population of Washington support cryptocurrency currently.

- A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies.
According to the results of the study, a record number of new companies related to the blockchain, metaverse, NFT and digital assets was recorded in the United States only in the first quarter of this year. The document says that even the fall of bitcoin does not affect the overall mood in the market.
DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, but it has also happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively.

- The identity and whereabouts of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the first digital currency, is considered one of the greatest mysteries of the cryptocurrency community. Eleven years after Nakamoto last reported to colleagues, the circumstances and reasons for his disappearance continue to concern the community. Another version is that the CIA is behind this.
The editor of Bitcoin magazine Pete Rizzo has recently said that he had established a possible link between Nakamoto's disappearance and former lead crypto developer and current Bitcoin Foundation chief scientist Gavin Andresen's visit to a CIA meeting in June 2011. Andersen was concerned about the attention of the secret service, which has the ability to influence the development of the project and force the developers to do what they do not want. And now Rizzo claims that it was after this visit that Nakamoto was “never seen again.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 06, 2022, 05:22:13 PM
April Results: NordFX TOP-3 Traders' Earnings Exceed 230,000 USD

(https://i.imgur.com/mUSqpAj.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit this month was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No.1620XXX, who earned 146,396 USD on gold (XAU/USD) trades.

The second place on the podium was taken by a trader from South Asia, account No.1621XXX, with a result of 64,004 USD, which was achieved thanks to transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD).

The third place belongs to the owner of account No. 1619XXX. Having chosen gold (XAU/USD), silver (XAG/USD) and euro (EUR/USD) as trading instruments, they made a profit of 21,184 USD.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- CopyTrading still has an active provider under the nickname KennyFxPro. Signal with the complex name KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 has shown a profit of 225% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of 67%. As before, almost all trades were made with NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs. Such a famous pair as EUR/USD got only 0.19% in their arsenal. Another signal from the same supplier, KennyFXPRO-Prismo 2K is two months Newbie traderer than the first one. The profit on it is less, 128%, but the drawdown was also lower, about 45%.

Among the newcomers, we can note the Darto Capital signal, which showed a yield of 197% in just 17 days with a maximum drawdown of 25%. This result is, of course, impressive. However, this is a fairly aggressive trading style, so subscribers should be as careful as possible and not forget about risk management.

- The TOP-3 in the PAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 100% in 462 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 72% profit in 393 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 60% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also among the leaders. As in CopyTrading, the vast majority of trades here were made with the NZD/CAD, AUD/CAD and AUD/NZD pairs.

The Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven account, which started relatively recently, at the end of February, attracted attention. During this time, it brought not the biggest profit of 17%, but the maximum drawdown on it did not exceed 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 4,683 USD, was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1582ХXХ;
- the next is their compatriot, account No.1565XXX, who received 4,529 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from East Asia, account No.1336XXX, who received $4,031 as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. Another super-lottery for NordFX clients has started this year. There will be 200 cash prizes of 250, 500 and 1,250 USD, as well as 2 super prizes of 10,000 USD each. The total prize pool is exactly 100,000 USD.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 08, 2022, 05:08:29 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 09 - 13, 2022


EUR/USD: A week of Many Multi-Year Records

Although some hotheads, such as James Bullard, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, believed that the interest rate could be raised by 0.75% straight away, everything happened as the market expected. Following the May 4 meeting, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raised the federal funds rate by 0.5% to 1.0%. This increase was the largest since May 2000, as the US Central Bank has been changing the rate in steps of 0.25% for the last 22 years.

According to the US Federal Reserve, the key interest rate will continue to rise, as the labor market remains quite strong, and inflation is high, reaching its highest levels in 40 years. The regulator also decided to start a “quantitative tightening” from June 1. The pace of the Fed's balance sheet drawdown could rise from $35 billion in June to $65 billion in July, and then to a maximum of $95 billion per month starting in August.

At the same time, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his comments that the Central Bank is not considering an active increase in interest rates by 0.75% at the upcoming meetings. These words eased concerns about the accelerated pace of monetary tightening, which pushed Treasury yields off their highs. The market felt that the Fed was not aggressive enough, and trading on US stock exchanges on Thursday, May 05 ended with a rise, pulling cryptocurrency quotes along with it.

However, the jubilation of risk asset advocates was short-lived. The very next day, on the morning of May 06, the DXY dollar index reached a multi-year high, rising above 104.00. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago.

A massive, wide-ranging sell-off began in the stock and treasury bond markets. Technology stocks were particularly hard hit. The S&P 500 fell 4% to its lowest level since May 2021, while the NASDAQ Composite lost over 5%. At the same time, 10-year Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2018, rising above 3%.

Some experts called the event "a tug of war between the bond market, which wants more aggressive action by the Fed, and the stock market, which wants the Fed to act more moderately."

Despite the growth of the DXY Index, the EUR/USD pair behaved quite calmly. It has been moving in the side channel 1.0470-1.0640 since April 27, which periodically narrowed to 1.0500-1.0580. In addition to the expected results of the Fed meeting, which had already been included in the quotes, and Jerome Powell's comments, data from the US labor market, received on Friday, May 06, could have brought some revival. However, such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) remained unchanged at the level of the previous month, 428K. As a result, the pair hesitated a bit and ended the five-day period in the central zone of the named channel: at the level of 1.0540.

A former senior US Central Bank official suggested earlier that the federal funds cost rate could eventually reach 5.0% after a series of increases. If the market decides it will, the dollar's bullish rally will continue and it could reach 1:1 parity with the euro. In the meantime, analysts' voices are divided as follows: 75% are sure that the dollar will continue to strengthen, while only 25% have the opposite opinion. 90% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators on D1 which are colored red side with the dollar, respectively, 10% and 15% are colored green. Immediate support is at 1.0500, followed by the April 28 low at 1.0470, the next bearish target for EUR/USD could be the 2016 low of 1.0325.  The nearest resistance zone is 1.0570-1.0600, then there are zones 1.0750-1.0800, 1.0830-1.0860, 1.0900-1.0935 and 1.1000.

There will be few significant economic events next week. The calendar could mark Wednesday May 11 and Friday May 13 when the data for the German and US consumer markets come in. Also, changes in the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will become known at the very end of the working week. And we should not forget about the active hostilities that are taking place in Ukraine, in the immediate vicinity of the EU borders, and the “surprises” that the Kremlin may present in response to sanctions imposed on by the European Union.

GBP/USD: Score 1.0-1.0 What's Next?

It was not only the Fed, but also the Bank of England that set a record last week. It raised the interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.0% at its meeting on Thursday, May 04, which is the highest level since 2009. Moreover, 3 out of 9 MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) members of the Bank voted for raising the rate to 1.25% straight away. The number of votes against the rate hike is 0. In addition, it became known that the regulator of the United Kingdom is working on a plan to sell government bonds purchased after the crisis, which currently stand at just under £850 billion.

The Bank of England also sharply raised its inflation forecast for 2022, from 5.75% to 10.25%. (Recall that in March, inflation peaked since 1992 and amounted to 7% (y/y) with a target level of 2%). The main reason is the rise in fuel and transport prices. In April alone, fuel bills in the UK skyrocketed by 54%, and this is not the limit. In addition to the consequences of Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, the situation is aggravated by sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine, and new coronavirus lockdowns in China. Inflation forecast for 2023 was also changed for the worse: from 2.5% to 3.5%.

Economic forecasts did not please investors either. And although the Bank of England left its forecast for GDP growth for the current year (+3.75%) unchanged, a recession is expected starting from the Q4. British Central Bank expects GDP contraction by 0.25% In 2023 instead of the previously planned growth of 1.25%. According to the new forecast, GDP will grow not by 1.0%, but by only 0.25% in 2024.

The interest rates of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England have reached the same level of 1.0% at the moment. However, if the dollar rate may reach 3.0-3.5% at the beginning of next year, or even higher, the British regulator suggests an increase in the pound rate to 2.5% by mid-2023. and its decline to 2.0% by the end of the forecast 3-year period. Such a difference in the pace of monetary tightening is likely to continue to put pressure on the British pound. However, the Fed should also update its inflation forecasts in June, and things could change.

In the meantime, the GBP/USD pair continued to fall, returning to June 2020 levels and reaching a local bottom at 1.2275. As for the final chord, it sounded at the height of 1.2340;

55% vote for further weakening of the British currency, 30% expect the pair to correct to the north and 15% - to move to the east. As for the indicators on D1, there is still a total advantage of the red ones: 100% both among the trend indicators and among the oscillators look down, although 10% of the latter are in the oversold zone. The nearest targets of the bears are to overcome the support at 1.2250, then at 1.2075, a strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. As for the bulls, if they manage to seize the initiative, they will face resistance in the zones of 1.2400, 1.2470-1.2570, 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Among the statistics related to the economy of the United Kingdom, the most interesting are the data on the country's GDP, which will be released on Thursday May 12.

USD/JPY: Bulls' Target Is 135.00

The correlation between 10-year US Treasury bills and the USD/JPY currency pair has not been canceled. If the yield of these securities grows, the dollar rises against the Japanese yen. We have seen confirmation of this in the past week. The pair reached a high of 130.80 on May 06 and is now aiming for a new 20-year high of 1.3125. Strategists of the international financial group Nordea expect that it may reach 135.00 by the end of the year. The strengthening of the yen and the fall of the pair, in their opinion, can only be expected in the second half of 2023.

Japanese consumer prices excluding fresh food, a key indicator monitored by the Bank of Japan, rose 2.1% in April, surpassing the 2.0% target for the first time in many years. And if the yen breaks through the level of 140 per $1, inflation in Japan may reach 3.0%, according to BNP Paribas experts. However, the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, has repeatedly stated that the Japanese regulator, despite the dissatisfaction of the population with rising prices, will remain faithful to the soft monetary policy.

If the Central Bank does decide to tighten it, this will make it difficult for the country to stabilize and reduce the ratio of public debt to GDP, according to Fitch Ratings. According to Fitch Ratings, this ratio reached 248% in fiscal year 2021, which is the highest among all investment-grade states and is the main credit weakness Japan. (For comparison, Italy, which is in second place, has a figure of about 150%).

The report on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Japanese regulator will be published next week, more precisely on Monday May 09. However, it is unlikely to affect the balance of power between the dollar and the yen. The scenario in which the USD/JPY pair will continue its movement to the north is supported by 65% of experts, 35% are waiting for movement to the south. 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1are looking north, but 15% oscillators signal that the pair is overbought. The nearest support is located at 129.70-130.15, followed by zones and levels 128.60-129.30, 127.80-128.00, 127.00, zone 126.30-126.75 and levels 126.00 and 125.00. The bulls' target is to renew the April 28 high at 131.25. An attempt to designate the subsequent targets of the bulls will rather be like fortune telling. The only thing that can be assumed is that they will set the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 as their goal.  If the pair's growth rate is maintained, it can reach this height as early as in June.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It All Depends on the Fed

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A recently published report by the analytical company DappRadar demonstrates the growth of crypto activity in the US, Russia and Ukraine. And if the increase in demand for digital assets is due to sanctions and a humanitarian catastrophe in the last two states, respectively, the global acceptance of virtual money in the United States is the result of an increase in the number of traders and crypto companies. At the same time, DappRadar analysts note that the popularity of cryptocurrencies has increased not only in the above countries, it has happened all over the world. For example, against the background of the threat of global inflation, the demand for virtual money in Brazil and India has increased by 40% and 45%, respectively. According to some experts, the number of cryptocurrency users will increase 5 times over the next 10-20 years and reach more than 1 billion people.

The specialists note that it is the activity of small investors who continue to believe in the future rise of bitcoin that saves it from a deep drawdown at the moment. Thus, the owners of wallets from 0.1 BTC to 10 BTC doubled their positions in April alone, bringing the total stock to 2.5 million BTC.

As for institutional investors (with investments of more than $1 million), the dynamics here are the opposite and it is primarily due to the actions of the US Federal Reserve. The Central bank has printed more than a third of the new dollars since spring 2020, and its balance sheet has doubled to $9 trillion. While the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, a huge amount of it was invested by investors in risky assets, supporting the stock and cryptocurrency markets. the time has come now to tighten monetary policy, which could not but affect these assets. As a result, the net outflow of investments from crypto funds has reached an all-time high of 14,327 BTC. Moreover, American investors are most active in getting rid of bitcoins, having reduced the volume of investments by 11% in a month. (And this despite the fact that the number of traders and crypto companies in the US is growing).

At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 06, the total crypto market capitalization is at $1.657 trillion ($1.752 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly worsened its readings: it dropped by 1 point, from 23 to 22 points, gaining a foothold in the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair is trading around $36.100, the week low was fixed at $35.280.

A further rise in interest rates, along with unloading the Fed's balance sheet, the growth of the DXY dollar index and the yield of treasuries, continue to put pressure on the quotes of risky assets. If about 50% of all BTC coins in circulation were profitable for their owners in the middle of the week, this figure will become smaller as quotes continue to fall. So, only 40% of the coins will remain profitable at the level of $33,000, which can cause an avalanche increase in panic.

Trader and Factor LLC CEO Peter Brandt predicts that bitcoin will test the $28,000 level. The expert drew attention to the pattern that the price of the first cryptocurrency has formed since the beginning of the year, and the breakdown of its lower border. “The completion of a bearish channel usually results in a decline equal to its width. In this case, in a hard test of $32,000 or so, but I think $28,000,” Brandt commented.

Another reputable cryptocurrency trader, Benjamin Cowen, also believes that there should be a major capitulation of bitcoin before a bullish reversal begins. According to him, it will spur another round of a bullish rally. Drawing a possible downside scenario, Cowen noted the three most important long-term moving averages that keep BTC at the level of support for a multi-year growth trajectory: 300-, 200- and 100-week SMA. A drop below the 100-week SMA has historically been a great opportunity for bulls: “The 100-week SMA is around $36,000 now, and there is an optimal time to buy BTC every time it goes below it,” Cowen said. But if the fall gains strength, the BTC rate, in his opinion, may collapse even more and test the level of the 200-week moving average, $21,600. “Many people do not believe that this can happen,” the trader says, “but it is possible. I used to buy BTC at $6,000 and then the rate fell to $3,000. Then I bought BTC at $7,000 and $10,000 and the rate fell again to $3,800. So this has happened before and can happen now.”

Bitcoin’s 300-week moving average was briefly touched only once during the COVID-19-driven market crash in March 2020, and Cowen doesn’t expect a repeat of the same.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of BitMEX, predicted in April that bitcoin would fall to $30,000 at the end of the first half of the year. He attributed this to a possible decline in the Nasdaq index, with which digital gold is highly correlated. Analysts at Arcane Research confirmed that this statistical relationship is at its highest since July 2020.

However, fintech experts who took part in the Finder survey expect quotes of the leading cryptocurrency to be above $65,000 at the end of the year with subsequent growth. Hayes himself does not doubt the prospects of bitcoin, predicting a rise in the price of the coin to $1 million by the end of the decade.

Unlike Arthur Hayes and Benjamin Cowen, analyst Michael van de Poppe thinks the network data hints at a possible bullish reversal in bitcoin. According to him, “BTC hash rate has reached another all-time high, although there is a tightening in the cryptocurrency space. Thus, the demand for BTC mining is growing, the network is becoming safer, and the asset price should respond to this.”

According to van de Poppe, a serious impulsive wave can be expected due to a possible correction in the US dollar index (DXY). “In my opinion, a serious move up is quite possible, especially if the US dollar shows weakness,” the analyst said. “In the event that the Fed abandons a strong tightening of monetary policy, the dollar will weaken, and this will become the impetus for the upward movement of bitcoin.”

Mike McGlone, Senior Analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, has similar hopes. He hopes that a sharp fall in the stock market will force the US Federal Reserve to change its position on tightening monetary policy, which will provoke bullish runs in high-risk assets. “The Fed will continue its policy until the stock market drops enough to force the regulator to pause. That's when I think we'll see the rise of bitcoin, ethereum and maybe Solana."

“If you want a good downside indicator for bitcoin and altcoins, these are Fed Funds futures. This is what the market expects from the Fed in a year. They are valued at 3% right now, maybe more, and the actual rate is 1%. As soon as this forward expectation starts to decrease, I think that bitcoin will hit the bottom,” the analyst said.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 11, 2022, 02:37:51 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The number of “whales” among bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds 1000 BTC, is rapidly declining. This figure has already reached its lows since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, on the contrary, is at its maximum over the past three months. According to Glassnode analysts, the average volume of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering around 1755 BTC.
All this is happening against the backdrop of a rapid fall in the price of the coin: BTC set a new local low at $29,730 on May 10. This is the lowest result in 2022 and is more than 54% below the all-time high. The pressure on the market is exerted by the coin holders themselves, who, due to panic, are ready to get rid of them even at a loss. Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 10 points out of 100 possible, firmly entrenching itself in the Extreme Fear zone.

- The next few quarters will be volatile for the market due to the negative situation on Wall Street, which will jeopardize the support levels of $30,000 for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. This point of view was expressed by Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz.
As of March 31, Galaxy Digital had $2.7 billion in assets under management, down 5% from its December 31 estimate. Galaxy Digital's net cumulative loss was $111.7 million for January-March, compared with a profit of $858.2 million for the same period last year. This is largely due to losses on digital assets.
“Until we reach a new equilibrium, digital assets will continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq. My intuition tells me that there will still be a drawdown ahead, and this will occur in a very unstable, volatile and complex market,” Mike Novogratz explained. He warned that the negative scenario could be realized if the Nasdaq index fell below 11,000 (12,500 at the time of writing).

- ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood believes that the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets indicates that the bearish trend will end soon. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin along with the traditional market is a temporary phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a new asset class that should not follow the Nasdaq, but that is what is happening. We are currently in a bearish trend where all assets are moving in the same way and we are seeing one market after another capitulate, but cryptocurrencies may be close to completing it.”
The head of ARK Invest believes that the cryptocurrency market will grow exponentially as traditional assets collapse. “The current recession in the stock and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is causing negative sentiment among investors. But look at our research… I can’t even tell you how confident we are that our products will change the world and are already on an exponential growth trajectory.” According to Wood, blockchain is in a technology sector that will grow more than 20 times in the next seven to eight years.

- The first cryptocurrency can be very successful, but it can also fail, so Currency carry trade solely on it is risky. This opinion was expressed by a veteran of the bitcoin industry, a 2020 US presidential candidate, billionaire Brock Pierce in an interview with Fox Business. “Bitcoin could drop to zero. This is a binary result. Either there will be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he said.
Pierce believes that the current “cryptocurrency landscape” is very similar to the history of the tech companies' bubble. “The situation is very similar to 1999. The market is now in the same phase. So what happened then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and other interesting companies appeared, but a lot of businesses went bankrupt. But this does not mean that digital assets are unrealistic and will not play an important role in our collective future,” the billionaire said.
Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily through ethereum. He also placed a “nine zeros” bet on EOS, converting all of his Block.one shares into cryptocurrency.

- Self-proclaimed creator of the main cryptocurrency, Australian computer scientist Craig Wright has sued cryptocurrency exchanges Coinbase and Kraken. This was reported by the law firm Ontier. He claims that these platforms misrepresent information by offering Bitcoin Core asset to customers under the guise of Bitcoin. According to Wright, the only digital asset “that remains true to the original bitcoin protocol” is Bitcoin Satoshi Vision.
“These and other exchanges have encouraged investors and consumers to trade and invest in Bitcoin Core, passing off this asset as bitcoin, despite it being created in 2017 as a software implementation that is different from the bitcoin protocol established by Dr. Wright when creating the electronic money system more than 13 years ago,” Ontier said in a statement.
Recall that Craig Wright himself claims that he is Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious inventor of bitcoin. According to Wright, he helped create the first cryptocurrency with his friend, the late computer security expert Dave Kleiman.

- BTC is a good insurance against inflation, but not a full-fledged alternative to gold. This position was expressed by the founder of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, Ray Dalio. The billionaire pointed to the obstacles to making bitcoin a reserve asset: “Transactions can be traced. They can be controlled, canceled and made illegal.” At the same time, the businessman expressed optimism about the prospects for the digital industry in the next ten years.

- Bank Of America, on the contrary, questioned bitcoin as a means of escape from inflation. The first cryptocurrency correlates well in its price behavior with the dynamics of the stock market since July 2021. Bitcoin's correlation with the S&P 500 hit an all-time high on January 31. The new all-time high was also close in correlation with the Nasdaq 100. In contrast, the price relationship between bitcoin and gold has been gradually weakening since 2021 and has turned negative in the last two months. The bank’s specialists emphasized that this trend “became obvious”, so bitcoin is not a full-fledged replacement for gold.

- The crypto community celebrated another mini-anniversary on May 5: bitcoin has overcome exactly half of the way to its next halving. It happened on block 735,000. Halving is reducing mining rewards by half. The event takes place every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. At the same time, the rules of this procedure are written in the cryptocurrency code, which means that it is impossible to influence it without the consent of the majority of blockchain users. There are a little less than 105 thousand blocks left until the next such event.
Halving cycles are one of the main mechanisms of the bitcoin network, which involves halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the issue of bitcoins is also halved since miners' rewards are the only source of issuing new coins.
From the inception of bitcoin to the first halving, miners were rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the amount in bitcoins was reduced to 25 BTC, and in the next cycle to 12.5 BTC. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC for mining a block.
The halving date can be predicted to within a couple of days, because the block production time fluctuates around 10 minutes. The previous halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next one will take place approximately in April 2024.
Halvings are considered very important events for another reason: as observations show, the explosive growth in the price of BTC is associated with them. So, before the first halving, BTC cost about $127, before the second, its price rose to $758, and before the third, to $10,943.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 15, 2022, 07:34:49 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 16 - 20, 2022


EUR/USD: On the Way to 1.0000

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The dollar continues to rise, while the EUR/USD pair continues to fall. The DXY dollar index crept close to 104.9 on Thursday, May 12. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago. The pair found the bottom at the level of 1.0349, in the area of the lows of December 2016 - January 2017. A little more, and following DXY, it will get to where it traded 20 years ago. And there, parity 1:1 is just a stone's throw away.

The reason for the next strengthening of the US currency was, as usual, two factors: the recovery of the labor market and the growth of inflation. It is these factors that determine the pace of tightening monetary policy by the Fed.

According to the forecast, US jobless claims should have shown a slight increase. But the actual data, released on Thursday May 12, showed that the situation in the labor market is much better than expected. The number of initial requests has grown, but not by 3K, as predicted, but only by 1K. The number of repeated requests, instead of increasing by 3K, decreased by as much as 44K.

A day earlier, on May 11, inflation data appeared. The core consumer price index in the US increased by 0.3% in April and amounted to 0.6%. This growth is much less than the 1.2% increase in March. But this does not mean at all that inflation in the country has reached a peak and will only decrease further. Not at all. Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel, pushing up the cost of goods, transportation costs and household spending. New cars increased in price by 1.1% in April (only by 0.2% in March), while airfare prices rose by 18.6% over the month, showing the largest increase in 60 years. In addition, with a high degree of probability, a series of lockdowns in China due to a new wave of coronavirus will lead to problems with logistics and commodity exchange, which will not help reduce inflation either.

The combination of these factors suggests that the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to change its plans to tighten monetary policy: to reduce the balance sheet and raise rates. Following the head of the regulator Jerome Powell, his colleagues in the FOMC - the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Loretta Mester and the head of the New York Fed John Williams supported the intention to raise the federal funds rate by 0.5% at each of the two upcoming meetings, bringing it to 2.0%.

As for their counterparts on the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB's key figures advocating a start to raise interest rates are still in the minority. Most members of the Board of Governors of the Bank are still convinced that the increase in inflation in the Eurozone is a temporary phenomenon, caused primarily by rising energy prices due to sanctions against Russia, which invaded Ukraine.

As a result, a powerful divergence between the clearly hawkish position of the US Fed and the indistinctly dovish position of the ECB continues to push the EUR/USD pair down, forcing new multi-year lows.

At the moment, analysts' voices are divided as follows: 70% of analysts are confident that the dollar will continue to strengthen, the remaining 30% are waiting for the pair's correction to the north. At the same time, when switching from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of those voting for the growth of the pair increases to 80%.  All 100% of the indicators on D1 side with the dollar, after another fall of the pair. However, 20% of oscillators are in the oversold zone. The nearest resistance is located in the zone of 1.0420, the next target of the bulls on EUR/USD is a return to the zone of 1.0480-1.0580. If successful, they will then try to break through the resistance at 1.0640 and rise to the zone of 1.0750-1.0800. For the bears, the number 1 task is to update the May 13 low of 1.0350, after which they will storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, below are only the support of 20 years ago.

As for the calendar for the coming week, we recommend paying attention to the publication of data on prices and volumes of retail sales in the US on Tuesday, May 17. The speeches of the heads of the ECB Christine Lagarde and of the Fed Jerome Powell are expected on the same day. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index will be known on Wednesday, May 18, and data on manufacturing activity and the state of the labor market in the United States will be received on Thursday, May 19.

GBP/USD: GBP Rate Hike Is Possible, But Not Obvious

As mentioned above, the DXY dollar index has reached 20-year highs. According to experts, it has risen by 5.1% over the past 4 weeks. At the same time, the GBP/USD pair fell 7.4%, outperforming the average by 2.3%. However, not everything is so bad for the British currency.

The Bank of England predicted a rise in inflation from the current 7.0% (30-year high) to 10.25% at its meeting on May 05. And although the regulator left the forecast for GDP growth for the current year unchanged (+3.75%), it expects a recession starting from the Q4. The British Central Bank expects a 0.25% reduction in GDP in 2023 instead of the previously planned growth of 1.25%. According to the new forecast, GDP will grow not by 1.0%, but by only 0.25% in 2024.

This scenario, of course, cannot be called optimistic. However, a week later, on May 12, statistics showed that the country's GDP in the Q1 rose by 8.7% year-on-year, seriously exceeding the previous figure of 6.6%. This dynamics gives investors hope that the regulator will not stop at the current interest rate of 1.0%, and like the Fed, it will go on further raising it in order to fight inflation. And this, in turn, will support the British currency. Or at least keep it from sliding further down.

GBP/USD hit a weekly low at 1.2154, with the last chord at 1.2240. In case of further correction to the north, the pair will have to overcome the resistance in the zone 1.2300-1.2330, then there are zones 1.2400, 1.2470-1.2570, 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000. When moving south, the first support will be the level of 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. 85% of experts vote for further weakening of the British currency, 15% expect a rebound upwards. And here it should be noted that when switching to forecasting until the end of the June, the number of the pair's growth supporters increases to 75%. There is still a total advantage of the red ones among the indicators on D1: 100% among trend indicators and 90% among oscillators look down. The remaining 10% among the latter have turned north.

As for the events of the upcoming week concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of data on unemployment and wages in the country on Tuesday May 17. The new value of the Consumer Price Index will become known on Wednesday, May 18, and retail sales in the UK for April at the end of the working week, on Friday, May 20.

USD/JPY: From Return on Capital to Its Safety

The Japanese yen performed better last week than its "colleagues", the euro and the British pound. As most experts expected, the bulls tried to renew the April 28 high at 131.24. However, having risen only 10 pips higher to 131.34, they gave up, and the USD/JPY pair flew down, finding support only at 127.51. Undoubtedly, the current volatility of the pair is impressive: the weekly trading range was 383 points. This is despite the fact that it hovered around 150 points on average  in the Q4 2021 - the Q1 2022. The finish of the last week took place in the central zone of the indicated range, at the level of 129.30.

Barring volatility during the coronavirus pandemic, the USD/JPY drop on Thursday May 12 was the biggest one-day swing since 2010.  The strengthening of the Japanese currency, according to a number of experts, was due to the increased craving of investors for the most risk-free assets. Up to this point, the dollar has risen on the back of rising interest rates and higher yields on 10-year US Treasury bills.  However, if investors continue to prefer capital preservation over returns, USD/JPY will continue to fall.

The yen was also strengthened by the expectation of changes in the policy of the Bank of Japan. Many investors, especially foreign ones, are expecting that, despite the regulator's assurances of commitment to an ultra-soft monetary policy, it may still go for an increase in interest rates. Moreover, there have already been such precedents, albeit in the opposite direction. Markets remember 2016, when the head of the Central Bank, Haruhiko Kuroda, first denied the possibility of introducing negative rates categorically, and then suddenly decided to take such a step.

At the moment, experts' forecasts look as uncertain as the pair's quotes. 40% vote for its growth, 50% are in favor of the fall of the pair and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. There is a similar discord among the indicators on D1. As for trend indicators, 65% are green, 35% are red.  The oscillators have 40% on the green side, 25% on the red side, and 35% hve turned neutral gray. The nearest support is located at 128.60, followed by zones and levels at 128.00, 127.50, 127.00, 126.30-126.75, 126.00 and 125.00. The goal of the bulls is to rise above the 130.00 horizon and renew the May 05 high at 131.34. The January 1, 2002 high of 135.19 is seen as the final goal.

Data on Japan's GDP for the Q1 of this year will be published next week, on Wednesday, May 18. It is expected that this indicator will decrease by 0.4% from the previous value of 1.1%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "$1 Million per BTC, or Zero"

If you read the headlines of the last week, you get the strong impression that the cryptocurrencies have only a few months left to live, if not days. “Crypto Market Massacre”, “Bitcoin Requiem”, “Crypto Bubble Burst” are just some of them. But is it all that scary?

Indeed, the market suffers very serious losses. Bitcoin has lost about 45% of its value since the end of March, hitting $26,580 on May 12. Most other coins feel even worse. As has been said many times, the cause of panic is the global drop in investor risk appetite. The crypto market only follows in the wake of the stock market: the correlation between digital asset quotes and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq is at its maximum.

The tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, new outbreaks of coronavirus in China, fears about the future of the EU economy: all this has led investors to prefer the dollar over risky assets. An additional driver is rising yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds. This figure has almost doubled since March and rose over 3%: to the highest level since 2018, exceeding the returns of most sectors of the US stock market.

In addition to global factors, the collapse of the third largest stablecoin in terms of capitalization, UST, put additional pressure on the crypto market. It is believed that stablecoins serve to facilitate investment transactions and should be pegged to the real dollar in a ratio of 1:1. The price of UST immediately collapsed to $0.64, casting doubt on the ability of the Terra team to maintain its rate. Against the backdrop of problems with UST, the native Terra LUNA token also went down, losing more than 90% of its price. It cost about $120 back in April, but you can buy it for $5 now. And here it must be borne in mind that the Terra blockchain protocol is a fairly large project that was in the TOP-10 in terms of market capitalization.

The fate of the centralized stablecoin Tether with a capitalization of $82 billion causes some concern as well. An audit of this project conducted in 2021 showed that instead of dollars, which should provide a reserve for the project, there are a lot of securities in the accounts. Against this background, the sale of USDT has intensified: its capitalization has decreased by $1.4 billion in recent days.

The total capitalization of the crypto market continues to fall. At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 13, it is at $1.290 trillion ($1.657 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen from 22 to 10 points out of 100, firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone. The BTC/USD pair, after a slight upward rebound, is trading around $30.150. The low of the week, as already mentioned, was fixed at $26.580. The last time the pair was so low was in December 2020.

The number of "whales" among bitcoin holders, whose capital exceeds the bar of 1000 BTC, is rapidly declining. This figure has already reached its lows since the beginning of the year. At the same time, the volume of cryptocurrency on the exchanges, on the contrary, is at its maximum over the past three months. According to Glassnode analysts, the average volume of coin inflows to centralized exchanges is now hovering around 1755 BTC.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz expressed doubt that the bulls will be able to defend the $30,000 support levels for bitcoin and $2,000 for ethereum. “Until we reach a new equilibrium,” he wrote, “digital assets will continue to trade in close correlation with the Nasdaq. Intuition tells us that there will still be a drawdown ahead, and this will occur in a very unstable, volatile and complex market.” Mike Novogratz warned that the negative scenario could materialize if the Nasdaq index falls below 11,000 (it hit 11,688 on May 12).

Gold apologist, billionaire Peter Schiff, predicted the main cryptocurrency to collapse below $10,000. And another billionaire veteran of the bitcoin industry, 2020 US presidential candidate Brock Pierce said in an interview with Fox Business that it can be very successful, but it can also fail. “Bitcoin could drop to zero. Here is the binary result. Either there will be $1 million per BTC, or zero,” he said.

Pierce believes that the current “cryptocurrency landscape” is very similar to the history of the tech companies' bubble. “The situation is very similar to 1999. The market is now in the same phase. So what happened then? After the dot-com bubble, eBay, Amazon and other interesting companies appeared, but a lot of businesses went bankrupt. But this does not mean that digital assets are unrealistic and will not play an important role in our collective future,” the billionaire said. Pierce admitted that he diversified his portfolio, primarily through Ethereum. He also placed a “nine zeros” bet on EOS, converting all of his Block.one shares into cryptocurrency.

Unlike other influencers, ARK Invest CEO Katherine Wood continues to express sustained optimism and believes that the growing correlation between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets indicates that the bearish trend will end soon. The businesswoman opined that the depreciation of bitcoin along with the traditional market is a temporary phenomenon: “Cryptocurrency is a new asset class that should not follow the Nasdaq, but that is what is happening. We are currently in a bearish trend where all assets are moving in the same way and we are seeing one market after another capitulate, but cryptocurrencies may be close to completing it.”

The head of ARK Invest believes that the cryptocurrency market will grow exponentially as traditional assets collapse. “The current recession in the stock and bond markets, commodities and cryptocurrency markets is causing negative sentiment among investors. But look at our research… I can’t even tell you how confident we are that our products will change the world and are already on an exponential growth trajectory.” According to Wood, blockchain is in a technology sector that will grow more than 20 times in the next seven to eight years.

Another hope for investors is that bitcoin is already halfway to its next halving. It happened at block number 735,000 on May 05. This event occurs every 210 thousand blocks, or approximately once every four years, with a little less than 105 thousand blocks left until the next one. The halving date can be predicted to within a couple of days, because the block production time fluctuates around 10 minutes. The previous halving took place on May 11, 2020, and the next one will take place approximately in April 2024.

Halving cycles are one of the main mechanisms of the bitcoin network, which involves halving the BTC reward for miners. Accordingly, the issue of bitcoins is also halved, since miners' rewards are the only source of issuing new coins. From the inception of bitcoin to the first halving, miners were rewarded with 50 BTC per block. Then the amount in bitcoins was reduced to 25 BTC, and in the next cycle to 12.5 BTC. Currently, miners receive 6.25 BTC for mining a block.

And if miners suffer losses due to halving, investors, on the contrary, earn. As observations show, before the first halving, BTC cost about $127, before the second, its price rose to $758, and before the third, to $10,943. It remains to wait for not so long, less than two years, to find out whether there will be a similar explosive rise in the price of BTC in 2024.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 18, 2022, 04:02:34 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/aDuK4ob.jpg)

- Due to the speculative nature of cryptocurrencies, investors need more protection, otherwise they may lose confidence in the markets. This was stated by the head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler. As a rule, buyers of cryptocurrencies do not receive the amount of information that is typical for other asset classes, the official said. For example, this applies to the trading platforms they use or whether users actually own funds in their digital wallets.
According to him, cryptocurrency markets are considered decentralized, but in reality, most of the activity takes place on a few large trading platforms. Regarding crypto platforms, he recalled the need to comply with the basic principles of the market, such as “fighting fraud, countering manipulation and insider practices, ensuring a real, not fictitious, order book.” Gensler noted that the SEC will continue to work to cover all types of cryptocurrencies with supervision. “There is a lot to be done here, and investors are not so well protected so far,” he concluded.

- FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried questioned bitcoin's ability to become a popular payment system due to the inefficiency and high environmental costs of its blockchain. This is reported by the Financial Times. The top manager pointed out that it is not possible to scale the network “to millions of transactions” [per second]. “Blockchain must be extremely efficient, lightweight and have low energy costs. We should not scale bitcoin to such an extent that the consumption of electricity by miners has increased a hundred times,” he explained. The CEO of FTX, who is already being called the “new Zuckerberg”, stressed that the first cryptocurrency can remain in the status of an asset, a commodity and a store of value.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki called the bitcoin crash “great news” and predicted a test of the $17,000 level. “As I said earlier, I expect bitcoin to fall to $20,000. Then we will wait for the bottom test, which may be $17,000. Once that happens, I'll go big. Crises are the best time to get rich,” he said.
Earlier, Robert Kiyosaki explained sarcastically why he is confident in the long-term success of digital gold: “Bitcoin will win because America is led by three puppets.” He ranked US President Joe Biden, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell among them.

- Crypto strategist known as DonAlt believes that after breaking the key psychological support area of $30,000, Bitcoin is ready to show a serious move. “Over the next 3 months, we will either see the capitulation that everyone is waiting for, or bitcoin will close the range and start moving up to $58,000,” the expert writes. – In my opinion, the probability of going down is higher. According to my calculations, the next support is at $14,000, after which a recovery of more than 2 times to the high of the range is possible.”
DonAlt noted that the current structure of the bitcoin market may hint that the bottom has already been reached. However, he fears the strong correlation of BTC with the stock market and the possibility of a collapse in the S&P 500 index.
The trader known as Rekt Capital agreed with the opinion that bitcoin is expected to fall further. The specialist believes that the coin needs to lose another 25% of its value before the expected local minimum.

- One of the main critics of bitcoin, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff believes that the cryptocurrency has an opportunity for a further strong fall. The businessman drew attention to the fact that bitcoin has lost an important support level near $33,000. And the cryptocurrency will have to fall to $8,000 to touch the next level. “The support line has been broken. There is a high probability of movement to the lower support line. The chart shows two patterns at once: a double top and a head-shoulders pattern. This is an ominous combination. We have a long way down,” Peter Schiff wrote on his blog.

- But an analyst nicknamed Pentoshi expects a bitcoin rally soon, as the situation, in his opinion, is in favor of the bulls. According to Pentoshi, the bears are making serious efforts to lower the price of bitcoin, but they are not succeeding in achieving the desired result. “A lot of coins change hands with a lot of effort. But do the sellers receive appropriate remuneration? It doesn't look like it.
As an example, he looked at an inverted chart of bitcoin, which shows extremely high trading volume, coupled with a small exchange rate movement. As Pentoshi believes, the failure of the bears to depreciate BTC despite strong selling pressure suggests that the momentum is about to turn in favor of the bulls.

- During a discussion of the impact of cryptocurrencies on the country's economy, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said that they could lead to dollarization, as well as have a negative impact on the banking system. Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das stated that "this seriously undermines the RBI's ability to control the country's monetary policy."
The official fears that cryptocurrencies can become a medium of exchange and replace the national currency in financial transactions both domestically and abroad. “Almost all cryptocurrencies are denominated in dollars and are issued by foreign individuals. This, in the end, can lead to the dollarization of part of our economy, which is contrary to the sovereign interests of the country,” Shaktikanta Das said.
According to various estimates, there are from 15 to 20 million cryptocurrency investors in India with a total volume of crypto assets of about $5.34 billion.

- The cryptocurrency market has recently been actively selling coins, as investors get rid of risky assets amid global economic turmoil. Cryptocurrency billionaires have suffered the most.
According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's net worth has decreased from $13.7 billion to $2.2 billion. This was not only due to the fall in digital asset prices, but also due to the fall in Coinbase shares, the price of which fell by more than 80%.¬ The capital of the CEO of the FTX crypto exchange Sam Bankman-Fried has halved and now stands at $11.3 billion. The well-known founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency trading platform, the brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have individually lost more than $2 billion, which is equivalent to almost 40% of their total fortune.

- American billionaire investor Bill Miller announced in January that half of his capital was invested in the largest cryptocurrency by capitalization. And now some of his coins were sold on a margin call.
In an interview with CNBC, the head of Miller Value Partners said he still remains bullish for the long term. According to him, for the first time he bought an asset in the range of $200-300 and during this time he went through at least three drops in BTC by more than 80%. Despite this, he still views bitcoin as an insurance policy against financial disaster.

- The US Department of State, the Treasury Department and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have issued a joint warning stating that North Korean IT professionals are trying to get jobs in cryptocurrency projects by posing as citizens of other countries. The authorities have noticed that coders from the DPRK pretend to be citizens of the United States very often.
The statement emphasizes that many of them receive income that contributes to the creation of weapons of mass destruction and the military buildup of North Korea in circumvention of the sanctions imposed on it. In addition, the document says that for the same purpose, some IT professionals from the DPRK have developed virtual currency exchangers or have created analytical tools and applications for cryptocurrency traders.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 22, 2022, 03:38:35 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 23 - 27, 2022


EUR/USD: Growth of the Pair as a Result of DXY Correction

The DXY dollar index hit a multi-year high of 105.05 on Friday, May 13 after a six-week rise. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago. However, a reversal followed, and the DXY was below the 103.00 horizon on May 19-20. According to a number of analysts, such a drop is more likely the result of a technical correction, and not a consequence of changes in fundamental factors. The latter still remain on the side of the American currency. However, there are already some alarming signals here, as the sharp tightening of the Fed's monetary policy increases concerns about the growth of the US economy and increases the likelihood of a recession.

But, once again, the fundamental factors are still on the side of the dollar. Thus, data on retail sales in the US released on May 17 showed an increase in consumer activity in April by 0.9%, which is higher than the forecast of 0.7%. Industrial production exceeded the forecast as well: it grew by 1.1% instead of the expected 0.5%.

Last week, the head of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell once again confirmed his intention to raise the key rate by 0.5% at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meetings in June and July. Recall that the US regulator has already raised the rate twice this year. This, of course, led to an increase in costs for various types of loans not only for industry, but also for the population, including mortgage lending, consumer loans, interest on credit cards etc.

However, on Tuesday May 17, Jerome Powell stated unequivocally that the Fed would continue to tighten and back off from aggressive rate hikes only when it received "clear and compelling evidence" of a slowdown in inflation. And if the rate of inflation decline does not suit the Central Bank, it may not limit itself to a rate of 3.0%, but increase it to 4.0% within 12-15 months. That will give the dollar additional advantages over other currencies in the DXY basket, including the euro.

Unlike the US economy, investors are much more concerned about the prospects for the European economy. This concern is primarily due to the strong dependence of the European Union on Russian energy resources. On Monday, May 16, EU countries started negotiations on the sixth package of sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine. It is known that we are talking, among other things, about the introduction of an embargo on the purchase of Russian oil and gas. It is not yet clear whether such an embargo will be total or partial, when it will be introduced and what exceptions there will be, but it is already clear that it will create serious problems not only for the Russian, but also for the European economy. And this cannot but cause concern for investors.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen added additional uncertainty to this complex situation. She stated that the G7 countries are discussing the idea of establishing the maximum possible duties on energy from Russia. On the one hand, it makes no sense to impose an embargo on their supplies in this case. But on the other hand, this will hit hard on the pockets of European consumers who want to avoid energy hunger.

The situation with inflation in the Eurozone remains unclear. According to data published on Wednesday May 18, it remains at a record level of 7.4%, that is, 3.7 times the ECB's target level of 2.0%. The head of the Central Bank of Finland, Olli Rehn, said that in such a situation, members of the ECB Governing Council agree on the need for a “fairly quick” move away from negative interest rates. Recall that the deposit rate in the euro area is now minus 0.5%, and has been negative for 8 years, since 2014. However, "fairly quick" exit is a very vague wording, in contrast to the specific decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the dollar rate by another 1.0% in the next two months.

This divergence between the specifically hawkish monetary policy of the Fed and the vaguely dovish ECB suggests that the US currency will continue to strengthen its position. Although the opposite happened last week: the dollar lost about 150 points to the euro from May 16 to May 20 and the EUR/USD pair ended the trading session at 1.0557.  However, according to some experts, what happened is a consequence of the general correction of the DXY index and fits into the medium-term downtrend of the pair.

At the time of writing, on the evening of May 20, the opinions of experts are divided as follows: 45% of analysts are sure that the EUR/USD pair will return to the movement to the south, the same number is waiting for the continuation of the correction to the north, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. There is a certain discrepancy in the readings of indicators on D1 caused by a correction. Among the trend indicators, 40% side with the reds, 60% side with the greens.  The oscillators have a clearer picture: 70% are colored green, 20% red and 10% neutral gray. The nearest resistance is located in the zone 1.0600, if successful, they will try to break through the resistance 1.0640 and rise to the zone 1.0750-1.0800. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support in the 1.0500 area, then 1.0460-1.0480, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, there is only support from 20 years ago below.

As for the calendar for the coming week, it will be useful to pay attention to the publication of data on business activity (Markit) in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole on Tuesday, May 24. US orders for capital and durable goods will be released on Wednesday. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting of the Fed will be published on the same day, and preliminary US GDP indicators for the Q1 2022 will be known on Thursday, May 26.

GBP/USD: Inflation Continues to Rise

Of course, the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair was dominated by what happened to the DXY dollar index last week. However, certain adjustments were also made by specific factors related to the economy of the United Kingdom.

The Bank of England published a forecast about two months ago that inflation should have peaked in April. The data published on Wednesday, May 18, confirmed this forecast, with the exception of one very big “but”. The regulator predicted that the peak would be reached at 7.2%, but it turned out to be 9.0%, which is the highest over the past 40 years. And in this case, to paraphrase the great English playwright William Shakespeare, it is time to exclaim: “Is this a peak or not a peak? That's the question!". Apparently, there is no talk of any slowdown in inflation yet, and it is precisely this that is the main “toothache” of the UK economy.

GBP/USD hit 1.2524 at a weekly high. Two pieces of news kept the pound from weakening. First, according to the UK Office for National Statistics, retail sales in the country unexpectedly rose by 1.4% in April, while the market expected a fall of 0.2%. And in addition, the British currency was supported by the chief economist of the Bank of England Hugh Pill, who said that the regulator has yet to continue tightening monetary policy, as bullish risks for inflation still prevail, and it is projected to rise to double digits in 2022.

As a result, the pair ended the five-day period at 1.2490 where it traded in late April - early May, and where it has already been in 2016, 2019, and 2020. Will it continue to fall? 20% of experts answered this question positively, 25% answered negatively. The majority (55%), not knowing how to react to the words of the chief economist of the Central Bank, shrugged their shoulders. As for the indicators on D1, then, as in the case of EUR/USD , their opinions are divided. Among the trend indicators, 50% point to the growth of the pair, exactly the same number points to the fall, among the oscillators the balance of forces is somewhat different: only 20% are looking south, 80% are looking north, although a quarter of them are already in the overbought zone. Supports are located at 1.2435, 1.2400, 1.2370, 1.2300, 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. In case of further correction to the north, the pair will have to overcome the resistance in the zone 1.2500-1.2525, then there are zones 1.2600-1.2635, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

UK economic developments in the coming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday May 23 and the release of the PMI Composite and Markit Manufacturing and Services PMIs on Tuesday May 24.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 22, 2022, 03:40:51 PM
USD/JPY: Why the Yen Is Strengthening

(https://i.imgur.com/1Q3iNh9.jpg)

According to officials from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), "in general, the depreciation of the yen is helping Japan." The same could be repeatedly heard from the leaders of the Bank of Japan. The IMF also believes that the control over the yield curve applied by the Japanese regulator is quite effective, and the dynamics of the yen "are in line with medium-term fundamentals."

However, contrary to the statements of high officials, we have seen not weakening, but strengthening of the Japanese currency over the past two weeks. And on May 20, it is exactly where it was on April 20: at the level of 127.85, without having updated the maximum of May 09 at 131.34. According to a number of experts, the strengthening of the Japanese currency was due to the increased craving of investors for the most risk-free assets. However, this is not the only reason.

Inflation in the country continues to grow, which causes discontent among the population. The rise in consumer prices is recorded for the eighth month in a row. In April, they increased by 2.5% compared to the same month a year earlier, showing the highest growth rate since October 2014. As noted by Dow Jones, inflation has exceeded the 2.0% mark for the first time since September 2008, and this is without taking into account the effect of the consumption tax increase. It was 1.2% in March. Naturally, all this causes discontent among the citizens of the country, to which politicians are already actively reacting. But at some point, there should be a reaction from the Central Bank of Japan. Many investors, especially foreign ones, expect that, despite the regulator's assurances of its commitment to an ultra-soft monetary policy, it will still be forced to increase the interest rate. And, apparently, it is this expectation that provides the yen with additional support.

At the moment, 55% of analysts vote for the yen to continue to strengthen and USD/JPY to continue moving south, 40% vote for the resumption of the uptrend to the north, and 5% expect movement in the sideways. At the same time, supporters of technical analysis pay attention to the fact that a classic figure has formed on the chart: a "double top" (or "head - shoulders"). Among the indicators on D1, the alignment of forces is as follows. Oscillators have 80% red, 10% green, and 10% neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the parity is 50% to 50%. The nearest support is located at 127.50, followed by zones and levels at 127.00, 126.30-126.75, 126.00 and 125.00. The goal of the bulls is to rise above the horizon of 128.00, then overcome the resistances of 129.00, 129.60, 130.00, 130.50 and renew the high of May 09 at 131.34. The high of January 01, 2002, 135.19, is seen as the ultimate goal.

Of the upcoming week's events, one can pay attention to the speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda on Wednesday, May 25, although it is unlikely to bring any surprises and at least somehow affect market sentiment. But what if something does happen? Markets remember 2016, when Haruhiko Kuroda first categorically denied the possibility of changing rates, and then suddenly decided to take such a step…

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: End of the Digital Gold Rush?

The BTC/USD bulls have been desperately trying to hold the line in the $30,000 zone since May 11. The struggle took place in the $28,650-31,000 zone all last week. And even though the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq stock indices rebounded on May 18, putting additional pressure on bitcoin, it continued to resist.

In general, decoupling bitcoin from stock indices, primarily from the S&P500, is the dream of many supporters of the first cryptocurrency. On the other hand, these same people dream that as many institutions as possible will come to the crypto market, and that bitcoin, along with stocks, will take its rightful place in their investment portfolios. But in order to become a full-fledged participant in financial markets, a cryptocurrency must obey the rules and laws established on it. And if large investors get rid of risky assets, one should not expect that, by dumping shares of Microsoft, Apple or Amazon, they will invest the dollars received not in treasuries, but in bitcoin or ethereum.

Another dream is for bitcoin to establish itself as a store of value on par with physical gold. However, the concept of "digital gold" at the moment is nothing more than a compliment towards the first cryptocurrency. Or a marketing ploy to increase its value in the eyes of small investors. But the importance of the precious metal for humanity has been confirmed for thousands of years, while the history of bitcoin is not even 15 years old. And its value lies only in its limited emission and thirst for profit.

Back in 2010, BTC was worth 5 cents, and its price reached $69,000 at its peak in November 2021. It is clear that the prospect of quickly and easily turning $100 dollars into $138,000,000 attracted a huge mass of people willing to get rich quickly. So what happened in the last 10-12 years can be called the “Digital Gold Rush”, by analogy with the Gold Rush in the USA in the second half of the 19th century. But then many, instead of getting rich, on the contrary, lost their money. The same can be observed now: bitcoin, having fallen to $26.579 on May 12, updated the low of the current year and returned to the values of December 2020, having lost about 60% of its value in just 6 months.

According to the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong's net worth has decreased from $13.7 billion to $2.2 billion. This was not only due to the fall in digital asset prices, but also due to the fall in Coinbase shares, the price of which fell by more than 80%. ­The capital of the CEO of the FTX crypto exchange Sam Bankman-Fried has halved and now stands at $11.3 billion. The well-known founders of the Gemini cryptocurrency trading platform, the brothers Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, have individually lost more than $2 billion, which is equivalent to almost 40% of their total fortune. Well, what means of "savings and hedging" can we talk about in such a situation?

Another advantage of bitcoin that its proponents like to talk about is its decentralized nature and the anonymity of its holders. However, it seems that this is just a fake. The head of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, explained that although cryptocurrency markets are considered decentralized, in reality, most of the activity takes place on a few large trading floors. Regulators and law enforcement officers are closely watching them. And the fact that the wallets belonging to the Russians were blocked after the imposition of sanctions against Russia, says a lot.

Finally, the fourth opportunity to raise the value of BTC is its widespread use as a means of payment. Although not everything is so smooth here. For example, Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, has recently expressed doubts about the ability of bitcoin to become a popular payment system. The top manager pointed to the lack of the ability to scale the network "to millions of transactions" per second due to the inefficiency and high environmental costs of his blockchain.

Returning from wishful thinking to reality, we must state that the total capitalization of the crypto market continues to fall. At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, May 20, it is at $1.248 trillion ($1.290 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 13 points. Moreover, it fell to 8 points on Tuesday, May 17, the lowest level since March 28, 2020. The BTC/USD pair is hardly kept in the "war zone", at the level of $29.325.

Gold advocate, president of Euro Pacific Capital Inc. Peter Schiff believes that bitcoin has already lost an important support level near $33,000. And the cryptocurrency will have to fall to $8,000 to touch the next level. “The support line has been broken. There is a high probability of movement to the lower support line. The chart shows two patterns at once: a double top and a head-shoulders pattern. This is an ominous combination. We have a long way down,” this “gold bug” wrote in his blog.

Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki called the bitcoin crash “great news” and predicted a test of the $17,000 level. “As I said earlier, I expect bitcoin to fall to $20,000. Then we will wait for the bottom test, which may be $17,000. Once that happens, I'll go big. Crises are the best time to get rich,” he said.

But according to the crypto strategist nicknamed DonAlt, the question of where bitcoin will move after breaking the key support area of $30,000, has not yet been resolved. “Over the next 3 months, we will either see the capitulation that everyone is waiting for, or bitcoin will close the range and start moving up to $58,000,” the expert writes. In his opinion, the probability of going down is higher, and the next support is at $14,000. DonAlt notes that the current structure of the bitcoin market may hint that the bottom has already been reached. However, he fears the strong correlation of BTC with the stock market and the possibility of a further collapse of the S&P500 index.

The trader known as Rekt Capital agreed with the opinion that bitcoin is expected to fall further. The specialist believes that the coin needs to lose another 25% of its value before the expected local minimum.

Analyst nicknamed Pentoshi, on the other hand, expects a bitcoin rally soon, as the situation, in his opinion, is in favour of the bulls. According to Pentoshi, the bears are making serious efforts to lower the price of bitcoin, but they are not succeeding in achieving the desired result. “A lot of coins change hands with a lot of effort. But do the sellers receive appropriate remuneration? It doesn't look like it.

As an example, he looked at an inverted chart of bitcoin, which shows extremely high trading volume, coupled with a small exchange rate movement. As Pentoshi believes, the failure of the bears to depreciate BTC despite strong selling pressure suggests that the momentum is about to turn in favor of the bulls.

American billionaire investor Bill Miller also looks optimistic. According to him, he survived at least three bitcoin drops by more than 80%. And despite the fact that some of his coins have been currently sold on a margin call, he remains bullish in the long term.

As follows from the above, there is no consensus among influencers and experts at the moment. What to do in such a situation? Of course, you can sit and wait with your hands down. Or you can, for example, engage in active trading. Moreover, trading on the CFD principle, you can earn both on the growth and fall of the crypto market. Moreover, you do not need to have a real cryptocurrency for this: in the NordFX brokerage company, in order to open a transaction of 1 bitcoin, you will only need $150, and $15 for a transaction of 1 ethereum. Why is this not a crypto life hack?


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 23, 2022, 02:43:05 PM
World Confederation of Businesses Presents NordFX with Business Excellence Award for the Second Time

(https://i.imgur.com/JyRVZFw.jpg)

For the second time, NordFX has received the BIZZ AWARDS, an award that the World Confederation of Businesses annually awards to companies that have achieved outstanding business success.

The World Confederation of Businesses (WORLDCOB) has been playing a leading role as an international business organization for over 15 years, promoting business development in over 130 countries and encouraging the growth of companies and entrepreneurs through THE BIZZ AWARDS. NordFX received its first such award in 2020, and now there is a new success.

“On behalf of the World Confederation of Businesses,” the organization's president, Jesus Moran, wrote in their letter, “we extend our most sincere congratulations to you and your team NORDFX, for being selected as a winner of of this important business excellence award.

Your company has been selected for consistently exceeding the evaluation criteria noted in our Business Excellence Questionnaires: Business Leadership, Quality of Products and Services, Management Systems, Innovation and Creativity, Corporate Social Responsibility, and Results Achieved.  For this reason, we would like to extend our congratulations once more in recognition of this outstanding achievement. WORLDCOB wishes you to continue the excellent work your team is doing."


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 25, 2022, 03:53:35 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/yw7q5e3.jpg)

- The collapse of LUNA and the general weakening of the market affected the expectations of crypto derivatives market participants. According to Glassnode, the ratio of open puts and calls in bitcoin has increased from 50% to 70%, indicating an increased desire of investors to secure positions from continued negative dynamics.
The largest open interest (OI) in call contracts with expiration at the end of July this year is concentrated around the $40,000 mark. However, participants give the greatest preference to put options, which will bring profit in case of price reduction to $25,000, $20,000 and $15,000. In other words, until the middle of the year, the market focuses on hedging risks and/or speculating on a further price reduction.
Optimists predominate over the longer distance. Contracts maturing at the end of the year have the most open positions in the range of $70,000 to $100,000. In the put option, the largest OI is concentrated between $25,000 and $30,000, that is, it is in the zone of current values.

- The rate of burning ethereum through EIP-1559 fell to a record low. 2,370 ETH was withdrawn from circulation Last week, which is 50% less than in early May. The share of coins not subjected to this procedure reached a record 81.6%, which has also put pressure on the price.

- Most Americans consider digital assets as an investment tool, not a means of payment. This is stated in the annual Fed report on the state of US households. According to the document, 12% of adult citizens of the country have owned or interacted with cryptocurrencies. But only 2% have used them for purchases, and only 1% have used them to send funds.

- Against the background of the increase in the key interest rate and the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, the price of bitcoin may fall below $8,000. Guggenheim Partners investment director Scott Minerd said this in an interview with CNBC. “When you “break through the $30,000 level, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom. So, I think we still have a lot of room to decline, especially with the Fed acting tough,” he said.
The investment director of the Guggenheim compared the situation in the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. According to him, most digital assets are “junk”, but bitcoin and ethereum will survive the crypto winter.
Minerd emphasized that the digital asset industry has not yet come to the right design for cryptocurrencies. In his opinion, the currency should store value, be a means of exchange and a unit of account. “There is nothing like that, they [cryptocurrencies] have not even come to a single basis,” he concluded.

- The PayPal payment company is making every effort to implement “all possible” integrations with blockchain and cryptocurrencies into its services. This was stated by PayPal's Vice President Richard Nash during the World Economic Forum in Davos. “We are looking to work with other [projects] to cover everything we can, whether it be the coins we have today in PayPal digital wallets, private digital currencies or CBDCs in the future,” Nash said.
The payments giant’s VP also hinted that he has also invested in crypto assets: “I have a lot of things that I work on at PayPal and I enjoy using the services myself, so I think it’s natural.”

- Unidentified people hacked into the Twitter account of Mike Winkelman, an artist known under the pseudonym Beeple, posting phishing links on it. Users were invited to a website purporting to be Beeple's partnership with Louis Vuitton fashion house.
Clicking on this link resulted in an unauthorized withdrawal of funds from the user's wallet. The cybercriminals got 135 ETH and 45 NFTs worth about $438,000. The hackers retained control of the artist's account for approximately five hours before he managed to get it back.

- The crypto strategist aka Credible believes that, despite the general bearish mood in the markets, BTC is ready to take off. According to him, bitcoin has been in a bull market for the last decade, and the bear markets of 2014 and 2018 became periods of correction: “After the peaks of 2013 and 2017, there were major bear markets and it took 3 years to return to the highs. The current corrections are somewhat smaller, and this will be proven when BTC soars to new all-time highs in a few months.”
Credible uses the Elliott wave theory for technical analysis, which predicts the behavior of the rate based on the psychology of the crowd, which manifests itself in the form of waves. This theory assumes that a bull market cycle goes through 5 impulse waves, with the asset correcting during the 2nd and 4th waves and rallying during the 1st, 3rd and 5th waves. In addition, each major wave consists of 5 smaller sub-waves.
According to the analyst, bitcoin is now in the middle of the main 5th wave that began at the start of 2019. In addition, BTC is currently still in the 5th sub-wave, which can push the asset to a new all-time high above $100,000. “I understand that my approach is controversial,” says Credible. “Most do not expect a new record high until the next halving in 2024, and I expect it sooner.”

- According to another crypto analyst nicknamed Rager, given the length of BTC’s bearish cycles in 2014 and 2018, the asset has a long way to go to the bottom, from 6 to 8 months. “If BTC is declining and rebounding from the 200-week moving average, as in past bearish cycles, then this is a good sign. There will be a decline of only 68% from the maximum, although it had reached 84% in the past. If we take the current realities, a pullback of 84% will lead to the rate of $11,000.”
Rager believes that the price of bitcoin will depend on the strength or weakness of the US stock market in the short term: “You should not look at the bitcoin chart, it is better to watch the chart of the S&P 500 index. There is limited upside potential for BTC right now, but it won’t get stronger until the stock markets turn around.”

- Rekt Capital, one of the most followed analysts on Twitter with over 300,000 followers, has warned that bitcoin could briefly drop 28% below its 200-week moving average. He explained that this SMA is playing the role of an ever-growing latest support. Bitcoin has fallen below this line in the past, but these periods of capitulation were very short-lived. The weekly candlestick has never closed below this SMA yet, but its shadows were as high as 28%. If this happens again now, the cryptocurrency rate will be at the level of $15,500. The 200-week moving average is currently in the $22,000 zone.

- Galaxy Digital CEO and bitcoin proponent Mike Novogratz believes that even despite a significant drop from their all-time highs, altcoins risk losing more than half of their value.
Novogratz defines the outlook for the entire financial market as bleak, which means that a further decline in crypto assets should be expected. However, despite the bearish macroeconomic background, the head of Galaxy Digital remains optimistic and believes in the recovery of the crypto market in the future: “Cryptocurrency is not going away. The number of new users is not decreasing, the pace of creating decentralized infrastructure is not slowing down, the GDP of projects in the metaverse is growing. The crypto community is resilient, it believes in innovation and believes that the markets still provide early entry opportunities.”

- The analytical company Santiment has published the data of its Weighted indicator, which calculates negative and positive comments on an asset in social networks. Based on this information, a kind of mood of the crypto community is determined. According to the readings of this instrument, bitcoin has already reached the global bottom and can be expected to rise in the coming weeks.
“History shows that prices most often rise when investor sentiment is low. Now is the moment when bitcoin has every chance of a limited strengthening,” analysts at Santiment believe.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 28, 2022, 03:49:26 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 30 - June 03, 2022


EUR/USD: Fed's "Boring" FOMC Protocol

The DXY dollar index hit a multi-year high of 105.05 on Friday, May 13, after a six-week rise. The last time it climbed this high was 20 years ago. However, a reversal followed, and it was already at the level of 101.50 exactly two weeks later. Following the general trend, the EUR/USD pair has also been growing since May 13, reaching the height of 1.0764 on May 27. The euro has pushed the dollar by 415 points during this time. And this is not at all the European currency that did it, but the American one. More specifically, the US Federal Reserve.

The minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released on Wednesday May 25 did not bring any surprises. It had only what everyone already knew about. The content of the document simply confirmed the intention of the regulator to raise the refinancing rate by 0.5% at each of the next two meetings. Fed officials also unanimously approved a plan to start reducing the asset portfolio, which currently stands at $9 trillion, from June 1. The absence of any surprises in the FOMC protocol hurt the dollar, but it helped the shares: the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq went straight up.

The Eurozone macroeconomic calendar remained almost empty last week. As for the statistics from the US, it came out rather multidirectional. Initial jobless claims for the week fell to 210K, which is less than the expected 215K. Orders for durable goods rose by 0.4%, indicating further growth in consumer activity, which is the main driver of economic growth. However, on the other hand, US GDP for the Q1 was revised down to negative -1.5%, which is worse than both the previous estimate of -1.3% and the forecast of -1.4%.

Among medium-term factors, the aggressive policy of the US Central Bank continues to play on the side of the dollar. Its head, Jerome Powell, has repeatedly confirmed his intention to raise interest rates in order to curb inflation and prevent the economy from overheating. US annual inflation (CPI) hit 8.3% in April, more than four times the target of 2%. At the same time, according to analysts, a record rise in energy prices will continue to push inflation further upward in the coming months. And this, in turn, may push the Fed to further tighten monetary policy.

The US currency also continues to be supported by its status as a protective asset. As the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to escalate, demand for it will continue to grow, as investors are concerned about the threat of stagflation in Europe. Rising tensions between China and Taiwan have increased craving for safe haven assets as well.

EUR/USD completed the past week at 1.0701. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of May 27, the voices of experts were divided as follows: 30% of analysts are sure that the pair will return to the movement to the south, 50% of analysts are waiting for the continuation of the ascent to the north, and the remaining 20% have taken a neutral position. There is no unity in the readings of the indicators on D1. Oscillators are 80% green, 10% red, and 10% neutral gray. At the same time, a quarter of the "green" is already in the overbought zone. There is parity among the trend indicators: 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 50%­ vote for its fall. The nearest resistance is located in zone 1.0750-1.0800. If successful, the bulls will try to break through the resistance of 1.0900-1.0945, then 1.1000 and 1.1050, after which they will meet resistance in the 1.1120-1.1137 zone. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support at 1.0640, then 1.0480-1.0500, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, there is only support from 20 years ago below.

A lot of statistics on consumer markets in Germany (May 30 and June 01) and the EU (May 31 and June 03) will be released this week. The publication on Wednesday, June 01 of the ISM business activity index in the US manufacturing sector is also noteworthy. On the same day, the ADP report on US non-farm employment will be published, and another piece of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such important indicators as the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm payrolls (NFP).

GBP/USD: "Not Boring" Decision of the UK Government

The main factor behind the strengthening of the pound and the growth of the GBP/USD pair, as in the case of the euro, was the general weakening of the US currency. The two-week drop in the DXY dollar index was its worst losing streak since December 2021. However, unlike the euro, the British currency was helped by two more factors. The first is strong labor market data. The second is inflation in April, which peaked in four decades and gave investors hope for further tightening of monetary policy and higher interest rates by the Bank of England.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed his concern about the country's economic prospects last week. He said in an interview with Bloomberg TV on May 27 that he "expects a difficult period ahead" and "doesn't want to see a return to the 1970s-style wage-price spiral."

A day earlier, the decision of the government of the United Kingdom, in contrast to the "boring" of the Fed's protocol, greatly surprised the markets. UK Finance Minister Rishi Sunak announced a one-off payment of £650 to the lowest income households to help them with rising prices. The total amount of this fiscal bailout will be £15bn. And although Sunak argued that the support package would have a “minimal impact” on inflation, many analysts thought that this injection could prompt the Bank of England to revise its economic forecasts for this and next year. It is possible that the regulator will decide to take a more hawkish stance in order to limit inflationary pressure on the country's economy.

At the same time, for now, growth prospects for the UK economy remain significantly lower than on the other side of the Atlantic. And this causes many experts to doubt that the pound, together with the GBP/USD pair, can continue to grow steadily in the medium term. Especially if the tension around the Northern Ireland Protocol increases. Recall that this document is an addition to the Brexit Agreement, which regulates special trade, customs and immigration issues between the UK, Northern Ireland and the European Union.

The last chord of the past week sounded at 1.2628. 55% of experts vote for further growth of the pair, 35% for its fall, and the remaining 10% are for a sideways trend.

The situation with indicators on D1 is similar to their readings for EUR/USD. Among the trend indicators, 50% indicate the growth of the pair, and the same number indicate the fall. Among the oscillators, the balance of power is somewhat different: only 10% are looking south, another 10% are neutral, 80% are pointing north, although a quarter of them are already in the overbought zone. Supports are located at 1.2600-1.2620, 1.2475-1.2500, 1.2400, 1.2370, 1.2300, 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong pivot point for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. In case of further movement to the north, the pair will have to overcome the resistance 1.2675, then there are zones 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

Among the events of the upcoming week concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, we can note Wednesday, June 01, when the May value of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector (PMI) will be published. Thursday 02 June and Friday 03 June are bank holidays in the UK.

USD/JPY: Japan Has Its Own Way. But which one?

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has recently said that "the recent movements of the yen are driven by various factors" and has added that the government's priority is to help ease the pressure on households and businesses through various policy measures.

It is interesting to know what lies behind the wording "the recent movements of the yen". Is it the fact that USD/JPY has soared from 102.58 to 131.34 since January 2021, and the Japanese currency has weakened by 2,876 points? So this is not just some kind of “movement”, but a real collapse, about which the country's households are moaning.

Inflation in the country continues to grow, which eventually causes dissatisfaction among the population. The rise in consumer prices is recorded for the eighth month in a row. They increased by 2.5% in April compared to the same month a year earlier, showing the highest growth rate since October 2014. As noted by Dow Jones, inflation has exceeded the 2.0% mark for the first time since September 2008, and this is without taking into account the effect of the consumption tax increase. But how do the leaders of the country react to this?

Whereas US and UK regulators fight inflation by tightening monetary policy, the opposite is true in Japan. According to the aforementioned Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, the authorities are aiming to meet the inflation target through the government's structural reforms, fiscal policy, and easing of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy. (Recall that the interest rate on the yen has been at a negative level of -0.1% for a long time).

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, in turn, explained that if energy prices do not show a sharp drop, Japan's core consumer price index (CPI) is likely to remain near the 2% mark for about the next 12 months.

At the same time, if we analyze the statements of both officials, certain discrepancies in their assessment of the economic situation become noticeable. On the one hand, Fumio Kishida says that the government's priority is to alleviate inflationary pressure, including by raising the wages of citizens. On the other hand, Haruhiko Kuroda says that against the background of such wage increases, a steady increase in inflation is possible. As a result, it is not yet clear at what point a compromise will be reached between the Government and the Central Bank of Japan, and what the country's economic policy will look like in the coming months.

Many investors, especially foreign ones, expect that, despite the regulator's assurances of its commitment to an ultra-soft monetary policy, it will still be forced to increase the interest rate. And, apparently, this expectation, along with the fall of DXY, provides support to the yen: the USD/JPY pair ended the last week at 127.11.

At the moment, 60% of analysts side with the bears, expecting further movement of the pair to the south, 15% vote for the resumption of the medium-term uptrend, and 25% expect movement in the sideways.

Among the indicators on D1, the alignment of forces is as follows. For oscillators, 60% are colored red, among which a third gives signals that the pair is oversold, 10% are colored green, and 30% are neutral gray. Among trend indicators, the parity is 50% to 50%. The nearest support is located at 126.35, followed by zones and levels 126.00 and 125.00 and 123.65-124.05. The goal of the bulls is to rise above the horizon of 127.55, then overcome the resistances of 128.00, 128.60 129.40-129.60, 130.00, 130.50 and renew the high of May 09 at 131.34. As the ultimate goal, the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 is seen.

No important information regarding the state of the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Background Is Negative, but There Is Still Hope

(https://i.imgur.com/bpsWOd2.jpg)

We have two pieces of news for you: good and bad. Let's start with the good one. Many experts, such as ARK Invest CEO Katherine Wood, literally dreamed that bitcoin would “get rid” of the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices, stop following them in the tail and take on a life of its own. And finally, we have seen something similar over the past two weeks. Despite the volatility in the stock markets, the bulls are desperately trying to keep the defense in the $30,000 zone from May 13 to May 27, preventing the BTC/USD pair from falling below the $28,620 support. This is where the good news ends. Let's move on to the bad one. More precisely, to the bad ones, because there are quite a lot of them.

Cryptocurrency No. 1 is trading in the negative zone for the first time in its history for the eighth week in a row. An important role in these dynamics was played by the direct correlation of BTC with stock indices, which was broken only in the last two decades of May.

Experts from Goldman Sachs noted in April that the Fed's aggressive policy could provoke recessionary phenomena in the US economy. Such expectations led to the flight of institutional investors from risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

The overall trading activity is declining. The outflow of funds from cryptocurrency investment funds in the past two weeks has reached its highest levels since July 2021. The total amount in fund management has fallen to $38 billion. The number of transactions is also falling. The total volume of coins on crypto exchanges has decreased to 2.5 million BTC, bitcoin flows to cold wallets.

Against this background, negative statements about the main cryptocurrency are heard more and more often. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, said on May 22 that the cryptocurrency does not have any security that could serve as stability. The next day, she was joined by the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, according to whom bitcoin has no intrinsic value and is not suitable as a means of payment.

Scott Minerd, Investment Director of Guggenheim Partners, agrees with the heads of the Central Banks. “Currency should store value, be a means of exchange and a unit of account. There is nothing like it, they [cryptocurrencies] have not even come to a single basis,” he concluded and compared the situation on the crypto market with the dot-com bubble. According to him, most digital assets are “junk”, but bitcoin and ethereum will survive the crypto winter, which will be long. “When you break $30,000, $8,000 is the ultimate bottom. Therefore, I think we still have a lot of room to decline, especially with the Fed acting tough,” Scott Minerd predicted.

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz also sees the outlook for the entire financial market as grim. He believes that even despite a significant drop from their all-time highs, altcoins risk losing more than half of their value. However, despite the bearish macroeconomic background, the head of Galaxy Digital remains optimistic and believes in the recovery of the crypto market in the future. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, “The crypto community is resilient and believes that the markets still provide early entry opportunities.”

Indeed, if you analyze social networks, you can see that their users, unlike institutional ones, have much more faith in a better future. Thus, the analytical company Santiment published the data of its Weighted indicator, which calculates negative and positive comments on an asset in social networks. Based on this information, a kind of mood of the crypto community is determined. According to the readings of this instrument, bitcoin has already reached the global bottom and can be expected to rise in the coming weeks. "Now is the moment when bitcoin has every chance of a limited strengthening,” analysts at Santiment believe.

One of the most respected social media analysts aka Credible also believes that, despite the general bearish mood in the markets, BTC is ready to take off. Credible uses the Elliott wave theory for technical analysis, which predicts the behavior of the rate based on the psychology of the crowd, which manifests itself in the form of waves. This theory assumes that a bull market cycle goes through 5 impulse waves, with the asset correcting during the 2nd and 4th waves and rallying during the 1st, 3rd and 5th waves. In addition, each major wave consists of 5 smaller sub-waves.

According to the analyst, bitcoin is now in the middle of the main 5th wave that began at the start of 2019. In addition, BTC is currently still in the 5th sub-wave, which can push the asset to a new all-time high above $100,000. “I understand that my approach is controversial," writes Credible. “Most do not expect a new all-time high until the next halving in 2024, but I expect it sooner, in a few months.”

Rekt Capital, which has over 300,000 Twitter followers, has warned that bitcoin could briefly drop 28% below its 200-week moving average. He explained that this SMA is playing the role of an ever-growing latest support. Bitcoin has fallen below this line in the past, but these periods of capitulation were very short-lived. The weekly candlestick has never closed below this SMA yet, but its shadows were as high as 28%. If this happens again now, the cryptocurrency rate will be at the level of $15,500. The 200-week moving average is currently in the $22,000 zone.

According to another cryptanalyst named Rager, “If the price of BTC declines and bounces off the 200-week moving average, as in past bearish cycles, this is a good sign. There will be a decline of only 68% of the maximum.” However, according to his calculations, such declines were as high as 84% in the past, and "in the current realities, an 84% pullback would lead to $11,000." That being said, given the length of BTC’s bearish cycles in 2014 and 2018, it could take 6 to 8 months before bottoming out.

Rager believes that in the short term, the price of bitcoin will continue to depend on the strength or weakness of the US stock market: “BTC has limited upside right now, but it will not strengthen until the stock markets turn around.”

According to Glassnode, the ratio of open put- and call-options for BTC has increased from 50% to 70%, which indicates an increased desire of investors to secure positions from continued negative dynamics.

The open interest (OI) in call contracts with expiration at the end of July this year is concentrated around the $40,000 mark. However, participants give the greatest preference to put options, which will bring profit in case of price reduction to $25,000, $20,000 and $15,000. In other words, until the middle of the year, the market focuses on hedging risks and/or speculating on a further price reduction.

Optimists predominate over the longer distance. Contracts maturing at the end of the year have the most open positions in the range of $70,000 to $100,000. In the put option, the largest OI is concentrated between $25,000 and $30,000, that is, it is in the zone of current values.

We complete the review of good and bad news for today on this note. We only note that at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday May 27, the total capitalization of the crypto market is at the level of $1.194 trillion ($1.248 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 12 points. (Recall that it fell to 8 points on May 17, the lowest level since March 28, 2020). The BTC/USD pair is struggling to stay in the war zone, trading at $28,800.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 31, 2022, 08:14:16 AM
NordFX Is Recognized "Best Execution Broker LATAM 2022"

(https://i.imgur.com/89CWbky.jpg)

NordFX has received more than 60 professional prizes and awards during 14 years of its work in the financial markets. However, it is only now, for the first time in years, that the high quality of customer service from Latin American countries has been recognized: according to the independent expert and analytical group International Business Magazine, NordFX has been named "Best Execution Broker LATAM 2022".

International Business Magazine is an online publishing company with a subscriber base of more than 50,000 that includes investors, C-suite employees, key stakeholders, policymakers, and government bureaucrats. The publication's website gets 4.2 million views annually and an average of 350k unique visitors every month.  International Business Magazine covers various important and relevant topics from around the world in the sections "Business and Emerging Markets", "Banking", "Finance", "Technology", reports the latest news and actively promotes innovative solutions in the industry.

The International Business Magazine awards are designed to highlight top talent across industries and regions. “It is a symbol of appreciation for the best-in-class achievements and class-leading innovations,” the magazine's executives said in the congratulatory letter. “It is a mark of inspiration for the upcoming players to surpass the benchmarks set by the award winners. The presented award has become reminiscent of International Quality's hallmark and further validates the company and its leaders as verified service providers or solution developers.  We believe a top-performing brokerage firm like Nord FX deserves the award title 'Best Execution Broker Latin America 2022.”

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 01, 2022, 04:01:53 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Bitcoin remains an asset free from interference from governments and corporations, inspiring confidence “in this uncertain world.” The head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor stated this in an interview with Fox News. In his opinion, the markets have entered bearish territory: bonds act as derivatives of currency, losing their value along with shares in conditions of high inflation.
The top manager noted that in such an extremely emotional market, the investor needs the protection that the first cryptocurrency can provide. “Two years after the crisis began, the money supply in the United States has increased by 36%. Gold has risen in price by 7%. The S&P index has risen by 29%, the Nasdaq index - by 19%. Bitcoin has added 229% in price,” he explained.
Saylor noted that as soon as he or the company has extra money, he will continue to invest in this cryptocurrency. MicroStrategy currently holds 129,218 BTC worth about $4 billion.

- An analyst at crypto channel InvestAnswers has looked at 3 likely price points for bitcoin that it could reach by 2030. He considered the market capitalization of gold and believes that in the end, bitcoin will be able to reach 40%, 60% or 100% of the capitalization of the precious metal. In this case, the price of BTC could be around $515,000, $786,000 or $1,300,000, respectively, by 2030. If we take a combination of all 3 aforementioned rate benchmarks, the average expected target is around $867,000.
And the analyst determined another target level by choosing the average value of a selection of forecasts from Fidelity, ARK Invest and other companies. By combining some of the well-known crypto models, he came to the BTC rate around $1,555,000 per 1 coin.

- According to a report by analyst firm Glassnode, long-term BTC holders are the only ones who didn’t lose their heads in the bear market and continue to buy the asset around the $30,000 mark. The current accumulation process mainly involves wallet owners with balances of less than 100 BTC and more than 10,000 BTC. The volumes of the former have increased by 80,724 BTC, the latter - by 46.269 BTC. The BTC accumulation trend indicator has returned over the past few weeks to a near-perfect value of above 0.9. And, despite the sale of some long-term BTC holders, the total volumes held in their wallets have returned to an all-time high of 13.048 million BTC.
At the same time, the total number of wallets with non-zero balances indicates the absence of new buyers. A similar situation was observed after the May 2021 sale. Unlike the sales of March 2020 and November 2018, followed by a surge in online activity and new bullruns, the latest sale does not yet boast an influx of new users.

- Crypto analyst under the nickname Capo, who had previously predicted the fall of bitcoin below $30,000, considers the current small rally to be a typical bull trap. Capo himself still expects a significant decline in altcoins and BTC in the near future: “My opinion has not changed, and I expect altcoins to fall by 40-60%, and bitcoin by 25-30%. Then it will take 1 to 3 months to recover.”
The analyst noted that the S&P 500 index is now in the region of a strong resistance level. And this could be the reason for the resumption of the bearish trend for both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

- Another crypto strategist and trader, Kevin Swanson, predicts bitcoin will continue to rise to $37,000 in the coming weeks, which will alternate with sharp declines.
Swanson's take on bitcoin's upward bounce is based on his thesis that BTC made a temporary bottom around $26,700 earlier this month. “Looking at this 2021 low [$29,000], one would think that bitcoin is unlikely to go lower. This makes me think that this bottom [$26,700] could act as a long-term support zone.”

- Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius crypto company, believes that the fall in the market has been too long and cryptocurrencies are waiting for a bullish trend with an eight-fold increase in bitcoin. In an interview with Kitco News, he stated that the cryptocurrency markets will recover and even inflation will not be a long-term problem for them. "You can push the spring as hard as you want, but the harder you push, the more it bounces."
The head of Celsius recalled that “when bitcoin recovers, it usually rises five to eight times compared to where it was. Or even more. At the same time, the stock market will only grow by 30-50-70%. Thus, the rebound of cryptocurrencies is always stronger, forward to new higher highs.”
Mashinsky noted that even large investment bankers are increasingly involved in cryptocurrency. “Even JPMorgan, which usually doesn't talk about cryptocurrency, released a report the other day claiming that panic may be exaggerated and is expected to rebound to $38,000 from where we we are today.”

- According to a study by the largest US bank JPMorgan, the dynamics of the volatility of gold and bitcoin caught up and they began to move in unison. This can be seen both in the charts of the last three months and half a year. Moreover, experts do not exclude the possibility that in the future, the capitalization of the two investment assets will be equal, since in the eyes of investors, bitcoin is more in line with the role of a hedge asset.
At the same time, despite the fact that the general dynamics of volatilities for bitcoin and gold is almost identical, the number 1 cryptocurrency still has a larger range of price fluctuations. Therefore, JPMorgan believes that reducing the volatility of bitcoin is an important condition for bringing its capitalization closer to the total capitalization of gold.

- Scott Minerd, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim, commented on the JPMorgan study at the Davos Forum. According to his analysis, the “fundamental price of bitcoin” is in the region of $400,000. Such a high estimate is due to the effect of the "unrestrained printing of US dollars" by the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, he believes that the market may see a bottom for bitcoin in the $8,000 area.
According to Minerd, institutional investors have not yet fully appreciated the potential of bitcoin. The image of the flagship is a bit obscured by the fact that "we see that there are 19 thousand types of digital assets, but most of them do not really represent any real value."

- Ki Newbie trader Ju, head of market data platform CryptoQuant, believes BTC will not fall below $20,000. This statement was supported by the expert with the remark that "support by institutional investors is at an unprecedented high level."
Ju provided data on the operation of the custodial service for storing digital assets of the Coinbase Custody exchange. According to the charts, the volume of bitcoins under management has continuously increased for 5 quarters, from October 2020 to December 2021. The increase was 296% at the end of the period, reaching 2.2 million BTC.
The analyst also demonstrated a decrease in digital storage stocks in the first quarter of this year, for the first time since the end of 2020. This, according to the head of CryptoQuant, was a reaction to the weakening of the market ability to support the price of the leading asset. However, 1.4 million BTC remains in general storage at the moment.
Based on the data obtained, Ju concluded that in order to reduce the cost of BTC to the level of $20,000, it is necessary to sell off all the capital accumulated during the period of consolidation to the level of 500 thousand dollars. BTC.   According to the crypto analyst, institutions are not yet ready for this step. The expert added that the value of the coin is likely to have already reached the bottom of this decline cycle.

- “I want cryptocurrencies to disappear,” these are the words of Dogecoin co-founder Jackson Palmer, who is famous for his scandalous statements, who believes that digital currencies are a technology for tax evasion and government oversight.
Palmer would like the Terra crash to end cryptography, “but it didn't happen.” According to him, “more and more people do nothing, earning money on doing nothing”. “Honestly, I thought the crypto market would explode a lot faster and people would learn their lesson. But in the past six months, I have noticed a continued insistence on investing in cryptocurrencies from companies with big money, which means that the process is not slowing down. We have stopped developing.”
However, Palmer now sees that "there is a revival coming because people are losing money." “I think that there will be a catastrophe in the cryptocurrency market that will be much more painful than before, and unfortunately, most of those who are at the bottom of the socio-economic hierarchy will suffer.”
Despite Dogecoin's successes, Palmer does not have the best opinion of Tesla CEO Elon Musk: “He's a scam, he's selling his vision in the hope that one day he can deliver what he promises. But he doesn't know for sure. He's just really good at pretending to know."

- Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, amid the recent fall of altcoins, continues to believe that cryptocurrencies like Ethereum will deprive bitcoin of leadership in the future. The macroeconomist agrees that BTC is the best crypto asset and outperforms ETH in terms of market cap, trading volume, and number of active wallets. “However, if you look at the development of Ethereum, the rate of growth in the number of wallets and transactions in the last couple of years has far outstripped bitcoin, and this is really beneficial for the development of the industry.”

- Venture capitalist Tim Draper confirmed his prediction that the price of bitcoin will exceed six figures in the coming months. In a new interview, he reiterated that the coin will reach a price of $250,000 "by the end of this year or the beginning of next". Tim Draper believes that women will drive the adoption and growth of bitcoin, and the fact that they will increasingly use this cryptocurrency for purchases will be a catalyst.
“Recently we had 1 woman for 14 bitcoin holders, now it's something like 1 to 6. And I think there will be more eventually. What I mean is that women control about 80% of retail spending. If suddenly all women have crypto wallets and they buy things with bitcoins, everything will change. And you will see the price of the coin, which will surpass my estimate of $250,000,” the investor said.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 02, 2022, 01:53:17 PM
May Results: Bitcoin and Gold Fall, NordFX Traders Earn

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in May 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

According to the results of the month, the leader is a trader from Southeast Asia, account No. 1467XXX, whose profit amounted to 29,196 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD) and euro (EUR/USD) trades.

The second step of the podium with a result of 20,946 USD is taken by their countryman, account No. 1570XXX, who showed how to make money on a market collapse. Their profit came from bitcoin (BTC/USD), which fell by 30% in May, and gold (XAU/USD), which also went down in the first half of the month.
In third place is a trader from South Asia, account No. 1621XXX, who earned 18,355 USD in May on transactions with the British pound (GBP/USD). It should be noted that this trader was one step higher in the TOP-3 in April. At that time, the trader was able to earn 3.5 times more on the same currency pair: 64,004 USD.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- “startups” were noted in CopyTrading in May. We talked about the first of them last month, this is the Darto Capital signal. It showed a yield of 1,596% In just 48 days of its existence, this figure was 461% in May alone with a maximum drawdown of 25%. The main trading instruments here were the classic Forex pairs EUR/USD (87% of transactions) and GBP/USD (11%).

PPFx13k is on the second position among startups. The signal has been operating since April 21, 2022, and it has made a profit of 607% during these 40 days, although with a rather serious drawdown of 65%. Trading was conducted mostly in pairs GBP/USD (46%) and GBP/JPY (38%). And finally, the third signal from this group is JumboTPC$$. It showed an increase of 107% in just 15 days of life, with a maximum drawdown of 31%. The trading instruments used and their volumes, GBP/USD (36%) and GBP/JPY (40%), suggest that this signal comes from the same source as ppfx13K.

The results of this Newbie trader trio are certainly impressive. However, it should be understood that they were achieved through very aggressive trading. Therefore, subscribers should be as careful as possible and not forget about risk management.

As for the veteran signal, KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000, it showed a profit of 308% since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of about 67%. At the same time, it turned out that the supplier of this and a number of other signals under the KennyFxPro “brand” is no stranger to “startups” either. KennyFxPro - The Cannon Ball signal appeared on the CopyTrading showcase 61 days ago. The trading style is non-aggressive, the profit is moderate: about 16%, but the drawdown is less than 6%. The favorite pairs are still the same: AUD/NZD (38%), NZD/CAD (32%) and AUD/CAD (30%).

- In the PAMM service, the TOP-3, or rather TOP-4, has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. They increased their capital on the KennyFXPro-the Multi 3000 EA account by 105% in 492 days with a fairly moderate drawdown of less than 21%. TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a 78% profit in 424 days with a similar maximum drawdown of less than 21%, and NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated 66% income since June 11, 2021, with the same drawdown of about 21%, are also in the first three.

Another account that we paid attention to a month ago, Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven, started relatively recently: at the end of February. It has brought not the biggest profit during this time: about 19%, but the maximum drawdown on it has not exceeded 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission of the month amounting to 7,011 USD was accrued to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No.1371XXX;
- in second place is a partner from East Asia, account No. 1336XXX, who received 6,827 USD;
- and a partner from South Asia, account No. 1565XXX, who earned 6,612 USD in May, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 05, 2022, 06:25:20 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 06 - 10, 2022


EUR/USD: Inflation and Labor Market Decide It All

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The total result of the week can be considered close to zero. If the EUR/USD pair completed the previous five-day period at 1.0730, the final chord sounded at 1.0720 this time. At the same time, we cannot say that the past week was very boring: the maximum volatility was 160 points, 1.0786 at the high and 1.0626 at the low.

The DXY dollar index fell to a 5-week low of 101.29 on Monday, May 30. The reason was the expectation that the Fed may suspend the cycle of raising interest rates after raising it in June and July. Of course, provided that inflation in the US goes down.

However, the trend reversed on Tuesday. There was data from the Eurozone, according to which inflation there soared to a record level. Bloomberg's consensus forecast assumed a 7.8% increase in consumer prices in May. However, according to the European Union Statistics Office, they rose by 8.1% in annual terms after rising by 7.4% in April, which was the highest figure in the history of calculations. Oil prices have also risen to their highs since the beginning of March. As a result, the yield on US 10-year bonds began to rise again, reaching its highest level since May 19, at 2.88%. Along with treasuries, the dollar began to strengthen, and the EUR/USD pair went south, reaching the local weekly bottom on June 01.

The trend changed once again on Thursday, June 02 after the release of data from the US labor market. Employment in the country was expected to grow by 300K. However, in reality, the growth was only 128K, which is clearly not enough to maintain stability in the labor market and threatens unemployment. The negative picture was somewhat corrected by the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP). This indicator was published at the very end of the working week and amounted to 390K with the forecast of 325K and the previous value of 436K. A little more than 200K new jobs need to be created each month to keep the US job market stable. So the NFP of 390K looks pretty positive. As for unemployment, it did not change over the month and remained at the level of 3.6% in May, which is lower than the forecast of 3.5%.

The EUR/USD pair is now trading close to the 2015-2016 lows, while the DXY index has caught up with the December 2016 high, which is the highest point in the last 20 years.

Some currency strategists, such as, for example, analysts at the Swiss holding UBS Wealth Management, believe that the growth of the dollar may stop. The market has already taken into account in quotations both the tightening of monetary policy by the US Central Bank and the rise in interest rates, and no new triggers for the next rally are expected. So, in their opinion, the rise of the EUR/USD pair in the last three weeks may turn out to be not just a technical correction, but a change in the medium-term trend.

65% of analysts agree that the pair will try to break through the 1.0800 resistance next week, 35% expect the pair to return to May lows and the remaining 10% are neutral. It should be noted that with the transition from a weekly to a monthly forecast, the number of bull supporters decreases to 50%, and their maximum target is the zone 1.0900-1.1000. As for oscillators on D1, 80% are colored green (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone), and 20% are neutral gray. There is parity among the trend indicators: 50% vote for the growth of the pair, 50%­ for its fall. The nearest resistance is located in zone 1.0750-1.0800. If successful, the bulls will try to break through the resistance of 1.0900-1.0945, then 1.1000 and 1.1050, after which they will meet resistance in the 1.1120-1.1137 zone. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support of 1.0625-1.0640, then 1.0480-1.0500, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to assault the low of January 01, 2017, at 1.0340, below there are only the goals of 20 years ago.

Eurozone GDP data will be released on Wednesday, June 08. However, the key event of the upcoming week will certainly be the ECB meeting on Thursday June 09. Markets are waiting for the decision of the European regulator on the interest rate, which is currently 0%, as well as for the comments on further monetary policy. In addition, the number of initial jobless claims in the US will also become known on Thursday, and a whole package of data on the US consumer market will be published on Friday, June 10.

GBP/USD: In Anticipation of Inflation Forecast

Great Britain celebrated the "platinum" anniversary of Elizabeth II on Thursday, June 02: the 70th anniversary of her accession to the throne of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (it happened in 1952). Bank holidays were announced in the country on this occasion, on June 02 and 03.

Other economic events of the week include the publication of the UK Manufacturing PMI, which was slightly lower in May than the April value: 54.6 against 55.8, but it exactly corresponded to the forecast, so the market reacted sluggishly to it. In general, the dynamics of the pair resembled the dynamics of EUR/USD, although the downward pressure in this case was stronger. Like a week earlier, the GBP/USD pair remained in the side corridor of 1.2460-1.2665 and ended the trading session at 1.2497.

Data on business activity in the UK construction and services sectors, as well as the Composite Business Activity Index (PMI), will be published on Tuesday, June 7 and Wednesday June 8. In addition, the Bank of England will publish its latest review of inflation expectations at the end of next week. According to forecasts, they will be significantly higher than the historical maximum (4.4% in 2008), and a jump to 5.0% and above will increase the likelihood of a further increase in the key interest rate on the British pound. A by-election should also take place at the end of June, which will be seen as a test of support for the policies of Prime Minister Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party.

In anticipation of these events, forecasts for the pound look very uncertain. At the moment, 40% have voted for its strengthening, 40% - for weakening and 20% - for the continuation of the sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, only 10% indicate the growth of the pair, 90% indicate a fall. Among the oscillators, the ratio of forces is slightly different: 25% look to the south, 35% is neutral, 40% point to the north. Supports are located at 1.2460, 1.2400, 1.2370, 1.2300, 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. In case of growth, the pair will have to overcome the resistance of 1.2600, and then 1.2665, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

USD/JPY: The Pair Is On the Way to 20-Year Highs

The rising dollar is also pushing the USD/JPY pair to update its 20-year highs. It reached a height of 130.97 last week, coming close to the May 09 high of 131.34.

Listing above the reasons for the strengthening of the American currency, we did not mention another one: the meeting of US President Joe Biden with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday, May 31. The central topic of discussion was inflationary pressure, causing discontent among all segments of the country's population. As a result, Joe Biden gave the head of the US Central Bank full independence in the fight against inflation and allowed the use of all the tools available to the regulator, including an aggressive increase in interest rates and a $9 trillion reduction in the balance sheet.

As for the Bank of Japan, it is still not ready to curtail its ultra-soft policy. According to this regulator, monetary stimulus should help the country's economy recover from the doldrums caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Weak economic statistics played against the yen as well. The volume of industrial production in Japan in April fell by 1.3%, instead of the expected reduction by 0.2%. A new round of the coronavirus pandemic in China was named as the reason.

At the moment, only 25% of experts vote for a new assault on the height of 131.34, 65% expect a rollback to the south, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. Indicators have a completely different picture. Both for trend indicators on D1 and for oscillators, all 100% are colored green. True, as for the latter, 20% is in the overbought zone.

The nearest support is located at 129.70-130.20, followed by zones and levels 128.60, 128.00, 127.50, 127.00, 126.00-126.35 and 125.00. The target of the bulls is to renew the May 09 high at 131.34. As the ultimate goal, the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19 is seen.

Data on Japan's GDP for the Q1 of this year will be published next week, on Wednesday, June 08. This indicator is expected to be minus 0.3% (previous value was minus 0.2%). Such a fall will be another argument for the Bank of Japan in favor of maintaining monetary stimulus and negative interest rate.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: From $8,000 to $1,555,000 per 1 BTC

Bitcoin's current small rally has been labeled by some analysts as a "typical bull trap". And if you look at the chart, we can only admit that they are right: a sharp rise to $32,490 at the beginning of the week and then an equally sharp fall and return to the Pivot Point of the last three weeks, the level of $30,000.

Also, if we compare the charts of BTC / USD and the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices, it becomes clear that the attempt of the main cryptocurrency to start living its own life has failed. And bitcoin is once again following the stock market, albeit with some delay.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday 03 June, the total capitalization of the crypto market is at the level of $1.225 trillion ($1.194 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 10 points (12 a week ago). The BTC/USD pair is trading at $29.770.

According to a report by analyst firm Glassnode, long-term BTC holders are the only ones who didn’t lose their heads in the bear market and continue to buy the asset around the $30,000 mark. The current accumulation process mainly involves wallet owners with balances of less than 100 BTC and more than 10,000 BTC. The volumes of the former have increased by 80,724 BTC, the latter - by 46.269 BTC. At the same time, the total number of wallets with non-zero balances indicates the absence of new buyers. A similar situation was observed after the May 2021 sale. Unlike the sales of March 2020 and November 2018, followed by a surge in online activity and new bull runs, the latest sale does not yet boast an influx of new users.

Moreover, leading mining companies are gradually leaving the ranks of holders. An analytical report by Compass Mining notes that the influx of coins from miners has reached its highest level since January. The fact is that the profitability of mining is falling due to halvings and increasing computational complexity. And it is necessary to pay off loans and other obligations and support operational activities. So mining companies have to part with their own BTC reserves.

As an example, let's take such a long-term holder as Marathon Digital. This company, like a number of others, has long been unprofitable, while it needs to raise about half a billion dollars until the end of 2022. Therefore, it is possible that Marathon Digital will be soon forced to sell some of its 10,000 BTC coins.

Analyst Capo, who previously predicted bitcoin to fall below $30,000, expects altcoins and bitcoin to fall further: “My opinion has not changed, and I expect altcoins to fall by 40-60%, and bitcoin by 25-30%. Then it will take 1 to 3 months to recover.” The analyst noted that the S&P500 index is now in the region of a strong resistance level (4,150-4,200), and this may cause a resumption of the bearish trend for both the stock and cryptocurrency markets.

Another crypto strategist and trader, Kevin Swanson, disagrees with Capo, he predicts bitcoin will rise to $37,000 in the coming weeks. True, this movement will alternate with sharp declines, such as on June 01. Swanson's take on bitcoin's upward bounce is based on his thesis that BTC made a temporary bottom around $26,700 on May 12. “Looking at the 2021 low [$29,000],” he writes, “one would think that bitcoin is unlikely to go lower. This makes me think that this bottom [$26,700] could act as a long-term support zone.”

Alex Mashinsky, CEO of Celsius crypto company, believes that the fall in the market has been too long and cryptocurrencies are waiting for a bullish trend with an eight-fold increase in bitcoin. In an interview with Kitco News, he stated that the cryptocurrency markets will recover and even inflation will not be a long-term problem for them. "You can push the spring as hard as you want, but the harder you push, the more it bounces."

The head of Celsius noted that even large investment bankers are increasingly involved in cryptocurrency. “Even JPMorgan, which usually doesn't talk about cryptocurrency, released a report the other day claiming that panic may be exaggerated and is expected to rebound to $38,000 from where we we are today.”

Scott Maynard, Chief Investment Officer at Guggenheim, opined at the Davos Forum that the "fundamental price of bitcoin" is in the $400,000 region. Such a high estimate is due to the effect of the "unrestrained printing of US dollars" by the US Federal Reserve. At the same time, he believes that the market may see a bottom for bitcoin in the $8,000 area.

Ki Newbie trader Ju, head of market data platform CryptoQuant, believes BTC will not fall below $20,000. This statement was supported by the expert with the remark that "support by institutional investors is at an unprecedented high level." Ju cited data on the work of the Coinbase Custody exchange. According to the charts, the volume of bitcoins under management has continuously increased for 5 quarters, from October 2020 to December 2021. The increase was 296% at the end of the period, reaching 2.2 million BTC.

Based on the data obtained, Ju concluded that in order to reduce the cost of BTC to the level of $20,000, it is necessary to sell off all the capital accumulated during the period of consolidation to the level of 500 thousand dollars. BTC.   According to the crypto analyst, institutions are not yet ready for this step. The expert added that the value of the coin is likely to have already reached the bottom of this decline cycle.

Venture capitalist Tim Draper confirmed his prediction that the price of bitcoin will exceed six figures in the coming months. He reiterated in a new interview that the coin will reach a price of $250,000 "by the end of this year or the beginning of next". Tim Draper believes that women will drive the adoption and growth of bitcoin, and the fact that they will increasingly use this cryptocurrency for purchases will be a catalyst.

“Recently we had 1 woman for 14 bitcoin holders, now it's something like 1 to 6. And I think there will be more eventually. What I mean is that women control about 80% of retail spending. If suddenly all women have crypto wallets and they buy things with bitcoins, everything will change. And you will see the price of the coin, which will surpass my estimate of $250,000,” the investor said.

According to a study by the largest US bank JPMorgan, the dynamics of the volatility of gold and bitcoin caught up and they began to move in unison. Moreover, the bank's experts do not exclude that in the future the capitalization of the two investment assets will be equal, since in the eyes of investors, bitcoin is more in line with the role of a hedge asset.

Analysts at the crypto channel InvestAnswers considered three options, according to which the capitalization of bitcoin can reach 40%, 60% or 100% of the capitalization of gold. In this case, the price of BTC could be around $515,000, $786,000 or $1,300,000, respectively, by 2030. If we take a combination of all 3 aforementioned rate benchmarks, the average expected target is around $867,000.

And another target level was determined by InvestAnswers experts by choosing the average value of a selection of forecasts from Fidelity, ARK Invest and other companies. By combining some of the well-known crypto models, they came to the BTC rate around $1,555,000 for 1 coin.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 08, 2022, 03:09:44 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Mh0Qkji.jpg)

- The PayPal payment company has opened the option of transferring bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies (Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash and Litecoin) between client accounts, as well as their withdrawal to third-party wallets. This option will be supported for all US customers in the coming weeks. PayPal Vice President Richard Nash said earlier that the company is making every effort to integrate blockchain and cryptocurrencies into its services.

- 202 new Bitcoin ATMs were installed globally in May according to Coin ATM Radar. The last time the indicator was at such low values was in 2019. The slowdown in device installations began in January 2022. However, in June, the trend changed to positive: 863 crypto-ATMs were already available in the first days of the month. Currently, there are 37,836 such devices in the world. The United States holds the leading position: 87.9% of the total number of cryptocurrency ATMs are concentrated there.

- Bitcoin’s short-term volatility doesn’t matter as long as there is an understanding of the fundamentals of the leading cryptocurrency and how difficult it is to create something better. This opinion was expressed by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor in an interview with The Block. “Bitcoin is the most reliable thing in a very volatile world. It is more reliable than other 19,000 cryptocurrencies, than any shares, than owning property anywhere in the world,” the top manager emphasized.
Commenting on the collapse of Terra and the subsequent market correction, the head of MicroStrategy doubted that what was happening was evidence of a bearish phase. “I don’t know if this is a bear market or not, but if it is, we have had three of them in the last 24 months,” he stressed.
Saylor added that he prefers not to get carried away by short-term prices. According to him, people who pay too much attention to the charts, "guess on coffee grounds." “If you don’t plan to hold it [bitcoin] for four years, you are not an investor at all, you are a trader, and my advice to traders is: don’t trade it, invest in it,” the businessman concluded.

- Consumers lost more than $1 billion in digital asset fraud from January 2021 to March 2022. This is stated in the report of the US Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The agency cited 46,000 people who reported the hoax. “Nearly half of the consumers who reported cryptocurrency fraud said it started with an ad, a post, or a social media message,” the FTC said.
According to the press release, victims of fictitious investment schemes have lost more than others: $ 575 million since January last year. Scams related to dating and Put option relationships are in the second place. The third are fake representatives of companies or of the government. The average amount lost was $2,600. Most often, victims transferred bitcoins (70%), USDT (10%) and Ethereum (9%) to scammers.

- Katie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest with assets of $60 billion, predicts a significant growth in bitcoin. According to her, network indicators hint that BTC is forming a bottom. “According to our data, short-term holders have capitulated, and this is great news in terms of hitting the bottom. The share of long-term holders is at an all-time high: 65.7% (they hold BTC for at least a year). Although there is still a possibility of capitulation of some of them to mark the bottom.
In addition to network indicators, Wood is watching the bitcoin futures market, hinting at a period of increased volatility for the asset. “It is still difficult to say exactly which direction it will go, but we believe that there is a high probability of the next burst of volatility in the upward direction.”
Despite some optimism, one has to exercise caution after the collapse of Terra (LUNA). “At the same time, we are on the alert,” says the CEO of ARK Invest. “Terra’s collapse was a fiasco for cryptocurrencies, and regulators have more reason to impose tighter restrictions than anticipated.”

- Crypto analyst Justin Bennett, giving a forecast for the coming weeks, hinted at a repetition of the June 2021 chart. According to him, the immediate line of defense for the bulls is $28,600. If the asset goes below this level, it risks revisiting the May lows at $26,580-26,910.
According to the analyst, if bitcoin follows the June 2021 scenario, it will form new lows for the current year: “In the event of a sell-off, the downward movement could go to the $24,000-25,000 range. But I do not think that this will be the minimum of the current cycle.”
After the formation of a new annual low, Bennett predicts some growth for bitcoin. “Most likely it will be a short-term rally to a lower macro high.” According to his calculations, the BTC price in July could rise to $35,000 during this short-term growth.

- Jurrien Timmer, macro analyst and director of investment company Fidelity, has updated his long-term forecast for the BTC rate. He refers to the once popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model of an analyst with the nickname PlanB, according to which the price of BTC was predicted based on supply shocks caused by asset halvings. However, he added to the S2F model two more models that track the rate of adoption of the Internet and mobile phones.
According to Timmer, based on the mobile phone adoption model, the price of bitcoin could rise sharply to $144,753 by 2025 (about a year after the next halving). But if BTC follows the pace of Internet adoption, then it turns out that the asset has already peaked and can trade at only $47,702 in 3 years. The average value derived from Timmer's modified supply model was $63,778.

- American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called cryptocurrencies a scam, comparing them to the real estate crisis in 2008. In an interview with Fox News, he mentioned the movie The Big Short, which tells the story of the financial crisis of the 2000s, which resulted from the collapse of the real estate market. Real estate prices were extremely high, but this did not stop people. The same situation is happening in the cryptocurrency market, Krugman explained.
The economist criticized people who claim that crypto assets are the future of finance. According to Krugman, bitcoin, which appeared in 2009, has not yet found significant practical use over the years, except for use in illegal activities.
“Cryptocurrencies have become a large asset class, and their supporters are increasing their political influence. Therefore, it sounds implausible to many that cryptocurrencies have no real value. But this is only a house built on sand. I remember the housing bubble and the mortgage crisis, so I can say that we have gone from a big short game to a big scam,” said the Nobel laureate.

- According to Reuters, Binance, the world's largest cryptocurrency exchange, has laundered $2.35 billion of illegal funds in 5 years. The transactions involved hacks, investment fraud, and illegal drug sales. So, the crypto exchange has been processing transactions of the world's largest drug market, the Hydra darknet website, during all these years. Reuters relied on court records, law enforcement statements and blockchain data in its statement.

- American investment strategist Lyn Alden said that bitcoin is now one of the most reliable assets, along with gold and real estate. The macroeconomist added that she does not expect inflation to fall anytime soon as the US continues to print money to meet its financial obligations.
“Most of my holdings are in long-term hard assets such as shares of pipeline energy companies, profitable producers of real products, bitcoin, some gold, various types of exchange-traded instruments and real estate,” explained Lynn Alden and added that such a diversified set of real assets not only has the necessary liquidity, but also allows her to rebalance the portfolio at any time if there are problems in the global market.

- Bloomberg expert Mike McGlone believes that the highest in the last 40 years inflation is starting, which will cause the largest economic crisis, after which assets such as cryptocurrencies, US bonds and gold will show unprecedented growth. He stated in an interview to Kitco News that "this may be reminiscent of the consequences of 1929. Although I am more inclined to the version that it will be more like the consequences of the 2008 crisis or maybe the consequences of the 1987 crash.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 13, 2022, 07:55:25 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 13 - 17, 2022


EUR/USD: We Are Waiting for the Fed Meeting

The movement of the EUR/USD pair from May 23 to June 09 can be considered as sideways in the range of 1.0640-1.0760 (several false breakdowns in both directions do not count). However, this relative calm ended after the meeting of the Board of the European Central Bank on Thursday June 09. The markets woke up, the pair flew down, and having dropped by more than 200 points by mid-Friday, it froze in anticipation of US inflation data.

The ECB meeting was, without a doubt, the main event not only of the last, but also of the previous few weeks. Investors had assumed that the key interest rate would remain unchanged in June at 0% (which happened). But they had hoped that the head of the Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, would announce a 0.50% rate hike in July, especially since inflation reached a record 8.1% in May, and forecasts for its growth for the next three years were greatly increased. But it turned out that the regulator is not ready for such a decisive step, and the rate will be raised by only 0.25%. As for another increase of 0.25%, the ECB will consider such a possibility as early as in September.

The regulator fears that a sharp increase in rates could adversely affect the state of the Eurozone economy, which is already having a hard time due to rising energy prices, supply disruptions and other problems caused by Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine.

The results of Thursday, June 09, showed that the ECB's position now seems to be no longer dovish, but still far from being hawkish like that of the Fed. And that inflation will be higher than expected, while rates, on the contrary, will be lower. This situation had a negative impact on market sentiment and led to the fall of the common European currency.

Another important event of the week was the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI). Inflation, together with the state of the labor market, are now the most significant indicators that determine the policy of the Fed. Therefore, what happens to consumer prices matters a lot. If prices stop rising and inflation remains at the same level of 8.3%, this is a confirmation of the correctness of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank, especially against the background of a sharp increase in the inflation forecast in the Eurozone.

So, according to the data released on June 10, the Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy prices (CPI m/m), remained unchanged at 0.6% in May (although this is higher than the forecast of 0.5%), and CPI (g /d) decreased from 6.2% to 6.0% with the forecast of 5.9%. The market considered this a good signal for the dollar, and the EUR/USD pair went further down, ending the week at 1.0520.

Next week, on Wednesday June 15, we are expecting an event, perhaps even more important than the ECB meeting. This is a meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve, at which a decision will be made on the next increase in the federal funds rate. We have already written that the regulator intends to raise the rate by another 0.5%, and this is most likely already included in the dollar quotes by the market. However, following the meeting, we are waiting for a comment and a press conference by the Fed management, during which investors can learn something new regarding the future plans of the US Central Bank. In general, the intrigue remains.

In the meantime, the voices of experts are divided equally on the evening of June 10: 50% side with the bulls, 50% - with the bears. In the readings of indicators on D1, the red ones dominate completely. These are 100% among the trend indicators. There are the same number of oscillators, but 25% of them are already giving oversold signals. The nearest strong resistance is located in the 1.0600 zone, if successful, the bulls will try to break through the 1.0640 resistance and rise to the 1.0750-1.0760 zone, the next target is 1.0800. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support in the 1.0500 area, then 1.0460-1.0480, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to assault the low of, 2017 at 1.0340, below there are only the goals of 20 years ago.

As for economic developments in the coming week, in addition to the Fed's FOMC meeting, we recommend paying attention to the publication of the CPI and the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany on Tuesday, June 14, as well as the Producer Price Index in the US. Data on retail sales will be released on Wednesday, June 15, and on manufacturing activity in the United States the next day. And finally, the value of the Consumer Price Index in the Eurozone will become known at the end of the working week, on Friday, June 17.

GBP/USD: We Are Waiting for the Meeting of the Bank of England

The past week confirmed the positive correlation of the pound against the euro against the dollar. The European currency, which fell on Thursday, June 09, pulled the British currency with it. Both pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD, went south. And data on consumer prices in the US gave an additional impetus to their fall on Friday. As a result, the last chord for the pair sounded at around 1.2311.

There will also be a meeting of the Bank of England the day after the Fed meeting, on Thursday June 16. It is possible that their decision on the interest rate will be made with an eye to what their colleagues will decide the day before. In addition, the growth of inflationary expectations may push the regulator to tighten monetary policy (QT, as opposed to quantitative easing QE). The Bank of England/Ipsos inflation forecast for the next 12 months was 4.6% against 4.3% previously.

In anticipation of the meetings of the two Central Banks, the US and England, the forecasts for the pound look very uncertain. Will it continue to fall? 40% of experts have answered this question positively, 50% have answered negatively, and another 10% have simply shrugged. As for the indicators on D1, the absolute majority is on the side of the bears as in the case of EUR/USD. Among trend indicators, 100% indicate a fall, among oscillators a little less: only 90% look south, although a quarter of them are in the oversold zone, the remaining 10% are painted in neutral gray. Supports are located at levels 1.2290-1.2300, 1.2200, then 1.2154-1.2164 and 1.2075. A strong point of support for the pair is at the psychologically important level of 1.2000. In case of growth, the pair will have to overcome the resistance 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, 1.2500, 1.2600, and then 1.2640-1.2665, 1.2700-1.2750, 1.2800-1.2835 and 1.2975-1.3000.

In addition to the Bank of England meeting, next week's events for the UK economy include the release of GDP data on Monday June 13 and UK wage and unemployment data on Tuesday June 14.

USD/JPY: Looking Forward to the Bank of Japan Meeting

(https://i.imgur.com/viCab6x.jpg)

Although one probably doesn't have to wait for it. It is highly likely that the Bank of Japan will once again leave its ultra-soft monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting on Friday, June 17, and the interest rate at the negative level of minus 0.1%. But if, at a subsequent press conference, the regulator at least hints at its possible tightening in the foreseeable future, this could have the effect of a bombshell and seriously strengthen the yen.

But, as already mentioned, the chances of this are few. And the rising dollar is again pushing the USD/JPY pair to the next update of 20-year highs. The peak was recorded at a height of 134.55 last week, and the pair finished a little lower, at around 134.37.

At the moment, only 15% of analysts have voted for the pair to rise above 135.00, 35% have accepted neutrality, while the majority (50%) expect the pair to correct south. (However, given the strength of the upward momentum of the pair, the moment of such a correction may be postponed indefinitely). For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For both trend indicators and oscillators, all 100% are colored green. True, among the latter, quite a lot, 40%, are in the overbought zone. The nearest support is located at 134.00, followed by zones and levels 133.00-133.35, 132.25-132.50, 130.45-131.00, 129.70-130.20, 128.60, 128.00, 127.50, 127.00, 126.00-126.35 and 125.00. The target of the bulls is to renew the June 09 high at 134.55. The next target is the January 01, 2002 high of 135.19, to which there is very little left. (Back at the end of April, focusing on the growth rate of the pair, we wrote that the assault on this height could take place in a month and a half. Now we see that this calculation turned out to be 100% correct).

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin in Search of a Bottom

Bulls on the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq successfully repelled the attacks of the bears for two weeks, until June 09. However, the strengthening dollar and the flight of investors from inflationary risks became the reason for active profit-taking on speculative long positions in stocks. And the quotes fell down.

Fights between bulls and bears on the BTC/USD front line, which runs along the $30,000 horizon, have not ceased for almost five weeks. And to the credit of the bitcoin defenders, despite the stock market crash, they still (Friday evening, June 10) continue to hold the line, only retreating slightly to the south. In such a flat situation, long-term investors can only wait and hope for the pair to grow. As for Intraday traders, transactions during a side trend in a narrow corridor can bring good profits to them. This will require certain skills though.

In our opinion, everyone is free to use the trading strategy that suits them best. Different people have different experiences, different psychological states, different financial possibilities, different time frames that they can devote to trading. In general, everything is individual. For example, MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes that you should not get carried away with short-term goals. According to him, people who pay too much attention to the charts, "guess on coffee grounds." “If you don’t plan to hold it [Bitcoin] for four years, you are not an investor at all, you are a trader, and my advice to traders is: don’t trade it, invest in it,” Saylor told The Block.

Recall that as of April 14, 2022, MicroStrategy remains the largest bitcoin holder among public companies. Together with its affiliates, it owns 129,218 BTC purchased for $3.97 billion at an average price of around $30,700. So the current situation for MicroStrategy and personally for Michael Saylor is critical. The company will be at a fairly disadvantageous position if the price of the main cryptocurrency does not go up. And according to a number of experts, it may well go the other way.

So, cryptanalyst Justin Bennett, giving a forecast for the coming weeks, hinted at a repetition of the June 2021 chart. According to him, the nearest line of defense for the bulls is at $28,600. If the asset goes below this level, it risks revisiting the May lows at $26,580-26,910.

According to the analyst, if bitcoin follows the June 2021 scenario, it will form new lows for the current year: “In the event of a sell-off, the downward movement could go to the $24,000-25,000 range. But I do not think that this will be the minimum of the current cycle.”

After the formation of a new annual low, Bennett predicts some growth for bitcoin. “Most likely it will be a short-term rally to a lower macro high.” According to his calculations, the BTC price in July could rise to $35,000 during this short-term growth.

But Katie Wood, the founder and CEO of the investment company ARK Invest with assets of $60 billion, believes that BTC is already forming a bottom based on the network's performance. According to her, “short-term holders have capitulated, and this is great news in terms of hitting the bottom. The share of long-term holders is at an all-time high: 65.7% (they hold BTC for at least a year). Although there is still a possibility of capitulation of some of them to mark the bottom.

In addition to network indicators, Wood is watching the bitcoin futures market, hinting at a period of increased volatility for the asset. “It is still difficult to say exactly which direction it will go, but we believe that there is a high probability of the next burst of volatility in the upward direction.”

Despite some optimism, one has to exercise caution after the collapse of Terra (LUNA). “At the same time, we are on the alert,” says the CEO of ARK Invest. “Terra’s collapse was a fiasco for cryptocurrencies, and regulators have more reason to impose tighter restrictions than anticipated.”

By the way, commenting on the collapse of Terra and the subsequent market correction, the aforementioned head of MicroStrategy doubted that what was happening was evidence of a bearish phase. “I don’t know if this is a bear market or not, but if it is, we have had three of them in the last 24 months,” Michael Saylor stressed.

As for long-term forecasts, they, as usual, look in different directions. American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called cryptocurrencies a scam, comparing them to the real estate crisis in 2008. In an interview with Fox News, he mentioned the movie The Big Short, which tells the story of the financial crisis of the 2000s, which resulted from the collapse of the real estate market. Real estate prices were extremely high, but this did not stop people. The same situation is happening in the cryptocurrency market, Krugman explained.

The economist criticized people who claim that crypto assets are the future of finance. According to Krugman, bitcoin, which appeared in 2009, has not yet found significant practical use over the years, except for use in illegal activities.

“Cryptocurrencies have become a large asset class, and their supporters are increasing their political influence. Therefore, it sounds implausible to many that cryptocurrencies have no real value. But this is only a house built on sand. I remember the housing bubble and the mortgage crisis, so I can say that we have gone from a big short game to a big scam,” said the Nobel laureate.

Unlike Paul Krugman, Bloomberg expert Mike McGlone believes that we, on the contrary, are in for a big game, but not going down, but going up. According to his forecast,  the highest in the last 40 years inflation is starting, which will cause the largest economic crisis, after which assets such as cryptocurrencies, US bonds and gold will show unprecedented growth. McGlone stated in an interview to Kitco News that "this may be reminiscent of the consequences of 1929. Although rather, it will be more like the aftermath of the 2008 crisis, or maybe the aftermath of the 1987 crash.”

Along with Mike McGlone, Katie Wood and Michael Saylor, American investment strategist Lyn Alden has also sided with the bulls. She does not expect inflation to ease any time soon as the US continues to print money to meet its financial obligations. That is why, in her opinion, bitcoin is now one of the most reliable assets, along with gold and real estate.

Our previous review named the target level for bitcoin, which InvestAnswers experts set by choosing the average value of a selection of forecasts from Fidelity, ARK Invest and other companies. Having combined some of the well-known crypto models, they came to the BTC rate by 2030 iaround $1,555,000 per 1 coin.

However, macro analyst and director of investment company Fidelity Jurrien Timmer has updated his long-term forecast, and it looks much more modest now. Jurrien Timmer refers to the once popular Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model of an analyst with the nickname PlanB, according to which the price of BTC was predicted based on supply shocks caused by asset halvings. However, the expert added to the S2F model two more models that track the rate of adoption of the Internet and mobile phones.

According to Timmer, based on the mobile phone adoption model, the price of bitcoin could rise sharply to $144,753 by 2025 (about a year after the next halving). But if BTC follows the pace of Internet adoption, then it turns out that the asset has already peaked and can trade at only $47,702 in 3 years. The average value obtained by Timmer based on his modified supply model is $63,778.

Time will tell which of the experts is right. In the meantime, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday June 10, the total capitalization of the crypto market is at the level of $1.192 trillion ($1.225 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 13 points (10 a week ago). The BTC/USD pair is trading at $29.340.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 15, 2022, 05:33:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/JewGCGg.jpg)

- The collapse of the cryptocurrency market on June 13 and 14 was not caused by the announcement of the Celsius Network crypto-lending platform to suspend the withdrawal of funds, but by the general negative macroeconomic background. This opinion was expressed by industry participants in a survey conducted by The Block.
Celsius suspended withdrawals, exchanges, and transfers between accounts on June 13 “due to extreme market conditions.” As of May, the platform managed $11 billion in user assets.
However, many experts believe that the crypto markets “would have fallen regardless of Celsius.” Bloomberg notes that the market has entered "a period of selling everything except the dollar." Traders are leaving for a "safe harbor", fearing that due to rising inflation, the US Federal Reserve may start raising interest rates more aggressively than was previously expected. Wall Street analysts believe that the rate will rise in June by 1.0% straight away, and not by 0.5%. Such a result could have negative implications for risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Against this background, the price of bitcoin fell to $20,000 on June 15, ethereum fell to $1,000, and the crypto market capitalization fell to $0.86 trillion. Recall that it reached $2.97 7 months ago, in November 2021.

- The widespread adoption of the first cryptocurrency may occur faster than previous innovative technologies and reach 10% by 2030. This is stated in the Blockware Intelligence study.
Analysts studied the historical curves of adoption of cars, electricity, the Internet and social networks, as well as the pace of bitcoin adoption since 2009. “All disruptive technologies follow a similar exponential S-curve […] but new network technologies continue to be introduced much faster than the market expects,” the report says. However, Blockware Intelligence emphasizes that the model used at this stage is just a concept and is not an investment recommendation.

- Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal also compared the rate of adoption of cryptocurrencies by society with the development of the Internet. The macroeconomist concluded that the slowdown in the development of the industry will begin in four years. He stated that “if the pace of development of the industry remains at the same level, we will have five or four billion people using cryptocurrency by 2030.”

- Well-known trader and analyst Tony Weiss believes that the real capitulation for bitcoin will take place soon. Weiss reviewed the Bitcoin Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI), which predicts trend lifecycles based on an asset's momentum. According to him, MRI points to a few more days (4-5) of falling, after which a market reversal may occur.
According to Weiss, most likely, the BTC rate will not fall below $19,000. But a further fall is not ruled out: “Is it possible to reach $17,180? I think so. But if the downward movement continues, the next level could be around $14,000. In my opinion, bitcoin will not fall so much, and the lowest level will be $19,000,” the expert believes.

- Bank of America analyst Jason Kupferberg told CNBC in an interview that the bank conducted a large survey among Americans in June 2022. The expert noted that about 90% of respondents answered unequivocally that they plan to buy a certain amount of cryptocurrency over the next few months. It is noteworthy that Bank of America itself does not yet plan to provide digital currency trading services.
The survey also showed that the majority of respondents had previously acted as short-term investors. About 77% of them held digital coins in their portfolio for less than one year. Almost a third spoke in favor of the fact that they are not going to sell their assets for the next six months.
According to Jasonf Kupferberg, this user interest is due to the increase in the number of crypto-fiat products. For example, the appearance of the Coinbase Visa card has significantly simplified the process of exchanging digital assets for fiat money. He also confirmed that cryptocurrencies are closely correlated with high-risk assets like stocks of fast-growing technology corporations.

- The American Express international payment service, together with the Abra crypto company, will offer its customers a Crypto Rewards credit card with cryptocurrency bonuses. According to public information, cardholders will be rewarded for purchases of any amount in more than 100 different cryptocurrencies supported by Abra, with no fees for transactions.

- The bear market upsets all investors. But the two largest institutional bitcoin holders have been particularly distinguished. They lost a total of about $1.4 billion on this asset. According to the analytical resource Bitcointreasuries.net, almost 130,000 bitcoins owned by Microstrategy and 43,200 bitcoins owned by Tesla made their owners significantly poorer (we are talking about an unrealized loss yet).
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor spent almost $4 billion ($3,965,863,658) on 129,218 BTC, which is approximately 0.615% of the total issuance of the first cryptocurrency. The fall in the price of bitcoin depreciated the company's investment to $3.1 billion, thus the loss amounted to $900 million. Apart from this, Microstrategy shares also fell to their lowest levels in recent months.
The investment of Elon Mask, whose car company Tesla bought more than 40,000 bitcoins during the 2021 bull market, has also taken a big hit. He lost about $500 million on his investments.

- Anthony Scaramucci, founder of $3.5 billion investment fund SkyBridge Capital, shared his thoughts on the current bear market. In an interview with CNBC, he called what was happening "a bloodbath", adding that he managed to survive seven "bear" markets. The former politician and White House communications director hopes he will be able to "get out" of the eighth one as well.
“I am encouraged by the fact that bitcoin exceeds currently 50% of the total market capitalization of the crypto market. This is another sign that proves its value,” said Scaramucci, recommending that investors keep buying bitcoin and stay calm. The financier believes that it is better to stick to a long-term investment strategy, but at the same time do without borrowed funds.
“All cryptoassets have a long-term perspective as long as they don’t face short-term losses. Then investors begin to tear their hair out and bang against the wall. It is better to buy a quality crypto asset (BTC or ETH) without being distracted by others, and maintain discipline without looking back at the bear markets that sometimes happen. If you remain calm during these periods, you will get rich,” says SkyBridge Capital's managing partner.

- The collapse of the bitcoin rate did not lead to a quick recovery. However, bulls have managed to protect an important level so far. We are talking about the 200-week moving average (200WMA), which served as a strong support in all previous bear market phases. Bitcoin has never managed to gain a foothold below this line so far. (By "gaining a foothold" traders mean the closing of the candle below a certain level). After dropping to almost $20,000, there was a quick rebound that took the price above the critical $20,400 mark.
Big buying saved the day, according to Material Indicators analysts, but “it's still too early to tell if support can be sustained. The eyes of the entire market are focused on the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on June 15 at 22:00 CET, at which a decision will be made to increase the key interest rate.

- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index BTC fell to 7 points out of 100 ahead of the FOMC meeting, which is comparable to March 2020 values. Then the price of bitcoin bottomed out at $3,800. According to Arcane Research analysts, the index has been in the Fear zone for 56 days, which is a record. “Market participants are undoubtedly tired of this, many capitulate. Historically, buying has been a profitable strategy in times of fear. However, it is not easy to catch a falling knife,” the researchers shared their thoughts.
The company noted that $20,000 is a critical level for bitcoin in the context of technical analysis. “Therefore, a possible visit below this level could lead to the capitulation of many hodlers and deleverages.” There is also significant open interest in bitcoin options around the $20,000 mark. This is a factor of additional pressure on the spot market if the above level does not withstand the onslaught of bears.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 19, 2022, 10:38:34 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 20 - 24, 2022


EUR/USD: Fed FOMC Meeting Results

(https://i.imgur.com/r9IhW1n.jpg)

Last week's events were based on Friday, June 10, when US inflation statistics were released, which amounted to 8.6% against the expected 8.3%. Having learned these disturbing data, market participants began to include in dollar quotes the possibility of raising the interest rate by 0.75% instead of the previously predicted 0.5%. Some hotheads even talked about its increase by 1.0% straight away. As a result, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) at its meeting on Wednesday, June 15, raised the key rate to 1.75%, that is, by 0.75%.

According to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, this was the most aggressive round of monetary tightening since 1994. Moreover, the US Central Bank, despite the threat of a recession, intends to follow the chosen course further, raising the rate by another 50 or 75 basis points at the next meeting.

Following the FOMC meeting, the inflation estimates for 2022 were revised from 3.4% to 5.2%, and the forecast for the key rate was raised from 1.9% to 3.4%. At the same time, Jerome Powell hopes that this will not be a shock to the economy, given the strength of the consumer sector and the US labor market. True, despite the optimism of the head of the Fed, the expected rate of economic growth for 2022 was reduced from 2.8% to 1.7%, and the forecast for the unemployment rate, on the contrary, was raised from 3.5% to 3.7%.

In general, Jerome Powell's comments on the regulator's plans turned out to be rather vague, and the market did not understand how strong quantitative tightening (QT) would be and what the prospect of raising the federal funds rate to 4.0% was. As the head of the Fed said, "a rate hike of 75 basis points is unusually large," so he does not think "such hikes will happen often."

As a result, the DXY dollar index reached its maximum (105.47), and the EUR/USD pair reached its minimum (1.0358) not following the FOMC meeting, but directly during it. The reason for the rapid strengthening of the dollar at the beginning of the week was not only the expectations of an unprecedented rate hike, but also poor macroeconomic statistics from Europe. The rate of decline in industrial production in the Eurozone accelerated from -0.5% to -2.0%, although it had been expected that they would slow down on the contrary. The main reason is still the energy crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions due to Russia's military invasion of Ukraine.

The dollar seemed to have exhausted its upside potential on the evening of June 15, resulting in a rapid bounce on June 16, sending EUR/USD soaring to 1.0600. As for the last day of the working week, the trend changed again after the ECB promised new support to contain the cost of borrowing among the southern countries of the Eurozone. The pair placed the final chord of the five-day period in the zone of 1.0500, at the level of 1.0495.

Many analysts believe that the US and European currencies will reach 1:1 parity by the end of the year (or maybe even earlier). In the meantime, the votes of experts are divided as follows on the evening of June 17: 30% side with the bulls, 20% - with the bears, and 50% cannot decide on the forecast. The indicators on D1 give quite unambiguous signals. Among oscillators, 100% are colored red, among trend indicators, 90% are red and 10% are green. Except for 1.0500, the nearest strong resistance is located in the 1.0600 zone, if successful, the bulls will try to break through the 1.0640 resistance and rise to the 1.0750-1.0760 zone, the next target is 1.0800. For the bears, task number 1 is to break through the support in the 1.0460-1.0480 area, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, there is only support from 20 years ago below.

As for the events of the upcoming week, Monday, June 20 is a public holiday in the US, the country celebrates Juneteenth. Data from the housing market will come on Tuesday, June 21 and Friday, June 24, and from the US labor market on Thursday. In addition, we will have two speeches by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in Congress on June 22 and 23. Also we recommend paying attention to the publication of data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole on June 23.

GBP/USD: A Pleasant Surprise from BoE

Ahead of the US Fed meeting, the dollar appreciated against the pound by 585 points in just 3 business days, from June 10 to 14, and the GBP/USD pair fell to 1.1932, the lowest level since March 2020. But then the regulator of the United Kingdom stepped in.

At its meeting on Thursday, June 16, the Bank of England (BoE) raised its key rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. It would seem that 25 basis points is only a third of the 75 bp that the Fed raised the rate the day before, but the pound flew up and the pair fixed a local high at 1.2405. The British currency strengthened by 365 points in just a few hours.

The reason for this rally, as often happens, is expectations. First, 3 out of 9 members of the Bank's Management Board supported an increase in the refinancing rate not by 25, but by 50 basis points at once. And secondly, the comments published after the meeting clearly indicated the possibility of accelerating the pace of tightening of monetary policy, starting from the next meeting of the regulator. That is, the rate may reach 1.75%, as early as August 4, which is significantly higher than market forecasts. In addition, the Bank of England intends not to stop there and raise interest rates further.

In contrast to the Fed's vague comments, the BoE was clear enough about its monetary policy that made a positive impression on investors. Analysts also noted that, unlike their colleagues on the other side of the Atlantic, the Bank of England leaders did not shift all the blame for rising inflation to China and Russia.

The pound retreated from the gained positions at the end of the week, and the pair ended the trading session at the level of 1.2215. At the moment, 50% of experts believe that in the near future the pair will try to test the resistance at 1.2400 again, 10%, on the contrary, are waiting for a test of support around 1.2040, the remaining 40% of analysts have taken a neutral position.

Both among trend indicators and among oscillators, 90% indicate a fall, while the remaining 10% look in the opposite direction. Supports are located at the levels 1.2155-1.2170, then 1.2075 and 1.2040. The pair's strong foothold lies at the psychologically important 1.2000 level, followed by the June 14 low at 1.1932. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2255, 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

Among the macroeconomic events of the upcoming week concerning the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of the May value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, June 22, and of a whole package of PMI Indices, reflecting business activity in individual sectors and in the economy of the country generally the next day, on June 23. Retail sales in the UK for May will be announced on Friday, June 24.

USD/JPY: No Surprises from the Bank of Japan

Rising dollar pushes USD/JPY again and again to fresh 20-year highs. Last week, having reached the height of 135.58, it broke the January 01, 2002 record of 135.19. This was followed by a powerful pullback to the level of 131.48 and a no less powerful new upswing, after which the pair finished near the level of 135.00, at around 134.95.

A weak yen, especially in the face of high inflation, is a big problem not only for households, but for the entire Japanese economy, as it increases the cost of raw materials and natural energy imported into the country. However, the Bank of Japan is stubborn to maintain its ultra-soft monetary policy, in contrast to the sharp tightening by the Central banks of other countries. After the US Federal Reserve, the Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England raised interest rates last week, the Japanese Central Bank left its rate at the previous negative level - minus 0.1% at its meeting on Friday June 17, while promising to maintain the yield of 10-year government bonds at around 0%. There have been several attempts to test the 0.25% yield on government debt over the past weeks, but aggressive buybacks of these securities immediately followed in response.

Japanese officials tried to give some support to the yen on the morning of June 17. The government and the Bank of Japan issued a joint (rarely seen) statement that they were concerned about the sharp fall in the national currency. These words were supposed to indicate to investors that the possibility of adjusting monetary policy is not ruled out at some point. But there was not a word in the statement about when and how this could happen, so the market reaction to it was close to zero.

A number of specialists, such as, for example, strategists at the largest banking group in the Netherlands ING, believe that there is still “an increased risk that USD/JPY will significantly exceed 135.00 in the coming days if the Japanese authorities do not step up and carry out currency intervention”.

Most analysts (55%) have long been waiting for the intervention of the authorities, or at least a revival of interest in the yen as a safe-haven currency. However, this forecast has not come true for several weeks. Although it is possible that a strong correction will be repeated, as happened on June 15-16, when the pair fell by 410 points. 35% of experts are counting on updating the high at 135.58, and 10% believe that the pair will take a breather, moving in a sideways trend. For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For trend indicators, all 100% are colored green, for oscillators, 90% of them are, 10% of which are in the overbought zone, and another 10% vote for the red. The nearest support is located at 134.50, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. It is difficult to determine the further targets of the bulls after the new update of the January 01, 2002 high. Most often, such round levels as 136.00, 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

With the exception of the release of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee meeting report on Wednesday, June 22, no other major events are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bloodbath or the Battle for $20,000

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of $3.5 billion investment fund SkyBridge Capital, called it a "bloodbath." And it's hard to disagree with him.

In total, bitcoin lost 70% between November 11, 2021 and June 15, 2022. It has lost about a third of its value in the past week alone. According to some experts, the trigger this time was the announcement of the crypto-lending platform Celsius Network to suspend the withdrawal of funds, their exchange and transfer between accounts “due to extreme market conditions.” (As of May, the platform managed $11 billion in user assets.)

However, the general negative macroeconomic background is most likely to blame. This opinion was expressed by industry participants in a survey conducted by The Block. Many experts believe that the crypto markets “would have fallen regardless of Celsius.” Bloomberg notes that the market has entered "a period of selling everything except the dollar." Traders are leaving for a "safe harbor" due to more aggressive tightening of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (QT), caused by rising inflation. The market is actively getting rid of risky assets, the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices are falling, and bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies along with them.

The price of BTC fell to almost $20,000 on Wednesday June 15, ethereum quotes fell to $1,000, and the capitalization of the crypto market fell to $0.86 trillion. Recall that it had reached $2.97 trillion 7 months ago, in November 2021.

The bear market upsets all investors. But the two largest institutional bitcoin holders have been particularly distinguished. They lost a total of about $1.4 billion on this asset. According to the analytical resource Bitcointreasuries.net, almost 130,000 bitcoins owned by Microstrategy and 43,200 bitcoins owned by Tesla made their owners significantly poorer (we are talking about an unrealized loss yet).

MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor spent almost $4 billion ($3,965,863,658) on 129,218 BTC, which is approximately 0.615% of the total issuance of the first cryptocurrency. The fall in the price of bitcoin depreciated the company's investment to $3.1 billion, thus the loss amounted to $900 million. Apart from this, Microstrategy shares also fell to their lowest levels in recent months.

The investment of Elon Mask, whose car company Tesla bought more than 40,000 bitcoins during the 2021 bull market, has also taken a big hit. He lost about $500 million on his investments.

Of course, Michael Saylor and Elon Musk aren't the only ones struggling. The fall of the crypto market hit the largest US crypto exchange as well. Coinbase Global announced the layoff of 1,100 employees (approximately 18% of the entire staff). Shares of Coinbase itself fell in price by 26% over the past week, and its capitalization decreased to $11.5 billion. Director and co-founder of the company Brian Armstrong said that “a recession can cause a new crypto winter that will last for a long time.”

Stablecoins also add cold to investors' hearts. The passions for UST (Terra) have not subsided yet, as the USDD of the Tron network has faced a systemic crisis. USDD lost touch with the dollar on June 13, and TRX fell by 22%.

As of this writing, the BTC/USD bull/bear fight is for the 200-week moving average (200WMA). This WMA used to serve as strong support in all previous bear market phases. Until now, bitcoin has never managed to gain a foothold below this line, and we will find out on Monday June 20 if it managed to do so this time. (By "gaining a foothold" traders mean the closing of a candle below a certain level).

Arcane Research believes that the $20,000 level is critical for bitcoin in the context of technical analysis. “Therefore, a possible visit below this level could lead to the capitulation of many hodlers and deleverages.” There is also significant open interest in bitcoin options around the $20,000 mark. This is a factor of additional pressure on the spot market if the above level does not withstand the onslaught of bears.

Renowned trader and analyst Tone Vays cites the Bitcoin Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI), which predicts the life cycles of a trend. At the moment, MRI points to a few more days (4-5) of falling, after which a market reversal may occur.

According to Vays, most likely, the BTC rate will not fall below $19,000. But a further fall is not ruled out: “Is it possible to reach $17,180? I think so. But if the downward movement continues, the next level could be around $14,000. However, in my opinion, bitcoin will not fall so much, and the level of $19,000 will be the lowest mark,” the expert said.

This forecast can be considered optimistic. For example, the president of the brokerage company Euro Pacific Capital, Peter Schiff, predicted a fall to $8,000 a month ago. And the American economist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman called cryptocurrencies a fraud and a bubble that will soon burst.

As of Friday evening, June 17, the total crypto market capitalization is at $0.895 trillion ($1.192 trillion a week ago). The BTC/USD pair is trading at $20,500. Bitcoin's Crypto Fear & Greed Index is firmly entrenched in the Extreme Fear zone and was falling to 7 points out of 100 possible (13 weeks ago). This value is comparable to March 2020 values. Then the price of bitcoin bottomed out at $3,800. According to Arcane Research analysts, the index has been in the Fear zone since April 12, which is a duration record. “Market participants are undoubtedly tired of this, many capitulate. Historically, buying has been a profitable strategy in times of fear. However, it is not easy to catch a falling knife,” the researchers shared their thoughts.

And finally, a bit of optimism from the founder of SkyBridge Capital, Anthony Scaramucci, with whose words we began this review. In an interview with CNBC, the former politician and White House director of communications not only called what was happening a “bloodbath,” but also added that he had survived seven bear markets and he hopes that he will be able to “crawl out” of the eighth.

“All crypto assets have a long-term perspective, as long as they do not face short-term losses,” the financier said. “Then investors start tearing their hair out and hitting the wall. It is better to buy a quality crypto asset without being distracted by others and maintain discipline without looking back at the bear markets that sometimes happen. If you remain calm during these periods, you will get rich,” Scaramucci encouraged investors.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 22, 2022, 04:51:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin supported The Daily Gwei creator Anthony Sassano, who called on the popular PlanB analyst to delete his account. The reason is the failure of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, which PlanB has been actively promoting in recent years.
“It's rude to gloat, but I think financial models that give people a false sense of confidence about asset growth are harmful and deserve ridicule,” Buterin wrote. The Ethereum co-founder added a chart to his post that shows a significant divergence between the real price of bitcoin and its S2F forecast.
PlanB reacted to Buterin's criticism with restraint. He said that in the aftermath of the crash, many are looking for scapegoats, including leaders. PlanB then presented a chart of five different bitcoin rate prediction models. According to the illustration, the most accurate picture is given by estimates based on the complexity and cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. The S2F model, in turn, offers an overly optimistic view.

- The internet is talking again about the death of bitcoin. The number of search queries on this topic has returned to its highest levels against the backdrop of the collapse in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The bitcoin dead request scored 93 points on Google Trends in the week ending June 18. This is just one point less than the maximum recorded in December 2017. Canada, Singapore and Australia are among the leaders among the “pessimists”. The United States and Nigeria follow them, even though the population there is much larger.

- Bitcoin's return to levels above $20,000 does not mean that it has bounced off the bottom. This was stated by Peter Schiff, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, President of Euro Pacific Capital. According to this gold supporter, the $20,000 mark will be the same “bull trap” as the $30,000 level was before. “Nothing falls in a straight line. In fact, it's a very orderly crash in slow motion. There is no sign of capitulation so far, which usually forms the bottom of a bear market,” Schiff said.
The head of Euro Pacific Capital had said Earlier that the collapse of the cryptocurrency market is good for the economy. He also added that even if digital assets have a future, bitcoin will never be part of it. Recall that Peter Schiff predicted back in May that bitcoin would test $8,000. And the investor suggested in mid-June that the minimum could be even lower, around $5,000.

- El Salvador President Nayib Bukele advised bitcoin investors not to worry about the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” he wrote.
In response, the aforementioned Peter Schiff stated that Bukele's advice was as bad as his "buy the top" recommendation. The latter is likely a reference to the "buy the dip" stock exchange slogan that Bukele often mentioned.
For reference, there are 2,301 BTC in El Salvador's public bitcoin fund, purchased at an average price of $43,900. Thus, at the moment, the loss on them has amounted to about 55%.

- An analyst aka Capo, who had correctly predicted the collapse of the cryptocurrency market this year, updated his forecast for top crypto assets. According to him, investors are fooling themselves into believing that a short-term rally means bitcoin has reached the bottom of the cycle. According to Capo, bitcoin is only rising because investors are liquidating their holdings of altcoins and investing in BTC in order to exit it: “Bull trap. Funds from altcoins flow into BTC, which will also be sold, but a little later. There is no bottom yet." The analyst shared his updated forecast regarding the fall levels of these assets: BTC is expected to decline to $16,200, and ETH to $750.

- According to crypto strategist Kevin Svenson, bitcoin has a chance to bottom in the $17,000-18,000 range, after which a short-term rally to above $30,000 could occur. At the same time, although Svenson expects this short-term growth, he does not see the prerequisites for launching a new bull market in the near future: “Overcoming the main downward resistance is the main obstacle and the process may last until the end of the year.”
According to the strategist, after the breakthrough of the diagonal resistance, bitcoin can trade in a narrow range for several months and start a new uptrend only by 2024 year.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen proposed his bottom search model for bitcoin. He believes that the bottom can be predicted based on the correlation of inflation, the S&P 500 stock index and the BTC price. The analyst argues that the S&P 500 index does not historically sink to the very bottom until inflation peaks and reverses. Accordingly, BTC cannot reach the bottom for the same reason. “Macroeconomic indicators look incredibly bleak at the moment. If you go back to the 1970s, you'll see a very similar type of move where the S&P bottomed just as inflation hit its first peak. By this point, the S&P was down about 50%,” writes Cowen.

- Shark Tank business TV show co-host Kevin O'Leary says big companies shouldn't be afraid of bankruptcy during the crypto winter, as their departure forms a promising market bottom. “This is good for all other companies as they will learn from this. I think we will soon see a wave of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency market. I don't know who it will be, but I assure you that I have seen it before. Later you will recognize those who have taken a high-risk position. They have been destroyed, and that's good,” said the millionaire.
Crypto channel InvestAnswers, in turn, named 3 possible catalysts for the market collapse. The BTC price may fall even more if MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor decides to sell the bitcoins in the company's reserves. In addition, the potential collapse of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and the problems of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital may also contribute to further capitulation of BTC. According to InvestAnswers, we should not forget about the possible sale of crypto assets by Tesla.
MicroStrategy reported a $1.2 billion loss last week due to the fall of bitcoin. As for the Three Arrows Capital fund, it now has about $2.4 billion left in assets out of $18 billion.

- Despite the low current rate of bitcoin, many participants in the crypto industry believe in its future growth. For example, there is a belief that BTC could reach $100,000 by 2025. Bloomberg Senior Strategist Mike McGlone is one of them. He has no doubt that the widespread use of cryptocurrencies and, in particular, bitcoin, can lead to a rise in the price of BTC to six figures.
Cryptocurrency is about 1% of the total market capitalization of all stocks on the planet. It was only 0.01% just a few years ago. According to Mike McGlone, this indicates a growing adoption of the new asset class. In addition, investors tend to buy gold during inflation, but now they have a digital alternative to it. Another reason is that the adoption of the asset occurs against the background of a reduction in its emission. This allowed the expert to conclude that prices could skyrocket in the coming years.

- The fall of bitcoin was one of the factors stimulating the growth in the number of addresses in the network with a balance of more than one coin. Glassnode estimates that investors stepped up in May and June during each pullback. In the last week alone, the number of such holders increased by 13,091. There are currently 865,254 addresses holding more than 1 BTC.
The number of small bitcoin holders has also grown significantly. The number of wallets holding at least 0.1 BTC has come close to 3.06 million since the beginning of last week. However, the number of "whales" with a balance of more than 100 coins has on the contrary decreased by 136 addresses.

- The Bangkok police arrested a suspect in a jewellery store robbery. According to Thai PBS, the man stole gold jewellery worth about 1.8 million baht (over $50,000) at gunpoint. After his arrest, he told the police that he was under great stress and was in dire need of money since he had recently suffered large losses from investing in bitcoin.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 25, 2022, 11:36:45 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for June 27 - July 1, 2022


EUR/USD: Just a Calm Week

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The last week was quite calm for the EUR/USD pair. It moved along the Pivot Point 1.0500, and the maximum range of fluctuations was less than 140 points (1.0468-1.0605), which is quite small for today.

President Joe Biden's appeal to the US Congress, with the exception of a proposal to introduce a tax holiday on fuel for 3 months, was, in fact, about nothing. And the federal tax on gasoline is only 18 cents per gallon, which is less than 4%. So, in such a short period of time, this measure will not have any effect on the economy, much less tame inflation.

As for the Fed, its head Jerome Powell, speaking in Congress, did not say anything new either. He only confirmed that, despite the threat of a recession, his organization will continue to fight inflation by tightening monetary policy. These intentions were also confirmed by Powell's colleague Michelle Bowman, a member of the Fed's Board of Governors, who stated that raising the key rate by 0.75% in July and by at least 0.50% at the next few meetings of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is not only appropriate, but also necessary.

There were no surprises in the words of both officials, and the markets, apparently, have already included this increase in their quotes for a long time. However, the yield on 10-year US bonds corrected against this backdrop to the lowest level in the last two weeks, falling from 3.5% to 3%. Stock Markets (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), as well as other risky assets, on the contrary, grew slightly. This was facilitated by the absence of any significant events on the Ukrainian-Russian front and the associated decline in prices for natural energy resources. So, for example, the cost of oil has decreased by about 10-13% over the past 10 days.

The macro statistics released on Thursday, June 23, although caused an increase in volatility initially, eventually returned the EUR/USD pair to the equilibrium point like a swing. The reason is that business activity in both the EU and the US turned out to be noticeably worse than expected. In the Eurozone, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector, according to the forecast, should have decreased from 54.6 to 54.0, but actually fell to 52.0 points. The index of business activity in the services sector has similar indicators: it fell from 56.1 to 52.8 instead of the expected 55.8 points. Thus, the composite index Markit lost 2.9 points instead of 0.6, falling from 54.8 to 51.9 (forecast 54.2).

Following the European one, the similar American statistics came out, which turned out to be no less disappointing. Thus, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell by as much as 4.6 points to 52.4 (previous value 57.0, forecast 56.0). A similar indicator in the service sector turned out to be slightly better: a drop from 53.4 to 51.6 points (forecast 53.0). As a result, the composite index of business activity decreased from 53.6 to 51.2 points, instead of the forecasted 52.8 points.

EUR/USD ended the trading session at 1.0555. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of June 24, the votes of experts are divided as follows: 35% side with the bulls, 55% - with the bears, and 10% cannot decide on the forecast. The readings of the indicators on D1 look quite chaotic. Among the oscillators, 35% are colored red, 25% are green and 40% are neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, 60% are red and 40% are green. The nearest strong resistance is located in the 1.0600 zone, if successful, the bulls will try to break through the 1.0640 resistance and rise to the 1.0750-1.0770 zone, the next target is 1.0800. Apart from 1.0500, the number 1 task for the bears is to break through the support around 1.0470, and then update the May 13 low at 1.0350. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, there is only support from 20 years ago below.

As for the upcoming week, data on the US consumer market will be released on Monday June 27, the German consumer market data on June 29 and 30, and Eurozone consumer prices (CPI) on Friday July 01. The value of the US Manufacturing PMI will be published on July 01 as well. In addition, it is worth paying attention to the data on US GDP (Q1), which will become known on June 29. In addition, a whole series of speeches by the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, is scheduled for the week: she will speak on June 27, 28 and 29. There will also be a performance by her overseas colleague Jerome Powell, but only one, on Wednesday, June 29.

GBP/USD: Looking for Drivers

Having started the five-day period at 1.2216, the GBP/USD pair ends it at 1.2280. And if in the period from June 13 to June 17, the maximum range of fluctuations exceeded 470 points, it was 3 times less last week, keeping within just 160 points. This lull was caused largely by the absence of high-profile macroeconomic events. However, it also suggests that the market cannot decide what to do with the pound, and is looking for drivers that can move the pair in one direction or another.

According to some analysts, the strengthening of the British currency is hindered by political instability. Prime Minister Boris Johnson already survived a vote of no confidence in June, with several lawmakers from his own Conservative Party voting against him. In addition, after the by-elections, the party lost two seats in the UK Parliament.

In terms of the national economy, retail sales fell 0.5% m/m in May according to the Office for National Statistics. This turned out to be slightly better than market expectations, which predicted a decline of 0.7%. But it did not help the British currency much, as the annual figure reached 9.1%, updating the 40-year high. The main contribution to the growth of inflation was made by the increase in prices for fuel and food products.

According to some experts, inflation in the United Kingdom will continue to grow and may exceed 11% by November. It is clear that this causes discontent among the population, as it reduces the level of income, depreciates savings, and also undermines the current purchasing power. To combat this evil, the Bank of England (BOE) raised its key rate from 1.00% to 1.25% on June 16. As a result, the British currency gained 365 points in just a few hours. But can the regulator, just like the US Federal Reserve, not be afraid of the economy slipping into recession and continue to regularly increase the cost of borrowing? Many traders and investors doubt this.

At the moment, 40% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will try to test the resistance of 1.2400 again in the near future, 25%, on the contrary, are waiting for a support test in the 1.2170-1.2200 area, the remaining 35% of analysts have taken a neutral position.

Among the trend indicators on D1, the balance of power is 75-25% in favor of the reds. There is no such clear advantage among oscillators: only 45% are pointing to a fall, 25% are looking in the opposite direction, and the remaining 30% are looking east. Supports are located at levels 1.2170-1.2200, then 1.2075 and 1.2040. The pair's strong foothold lies at the psychologically important 1.2000 level, followed by the June 14 low at 1.1932. In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

As for the macroeconomic events of the coming week regarding the United Kingdom, we can highlight the publication of data on the country's GDP for the Q1 2022 on Thursday, June 30. The speech of the Governor of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, which will take place the day before, on Wednesday, June 29, may also be of interest. And the business activity index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector will be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, July 01.

USD/JPY: "Head" and "Shoulders" Are Visible. What's next?

The USD/JPY formed a classic technical analysis head and shoulders pattern over the past week. Starting from 134.95, it rose to the height of 136.70, then rolled back to the local low of 134.25, and finished at 135.20.

The divergence between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve helped to update the 24-year high once again, having risen to 136.70 on Wednesday, June 22. We have already written about this many times. As for the subsequent rollback down, the reason is most likely the June decline in world prices for mineral fuels, on which the country's economy is highly dependent, as well as the fall in the yield of 10-year US Treasuries.

It is common knowledge that there is a direct correlation between 10-year US Treasury bills and the USD/JPY currency pair. And if the yield of these securities falls, the yen shows growth against the dollar, and the USD/JPY pair forms a downtrend. This is what we observed in the second half of the week, when the yield on government bonds fell to 3%.

Reuters reported that Japan's annual core consumer inflation in May exceeded the central bank's target of 2% in May for the second consecutive month. Which is a signal of increasing pressure on the fragile Japanese economy due to rising world prices for raw materials.

A number of experts believe that the forecast of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) about the temporary nature of price growth is incorrect. Hence, the “super-dove” monetary policy of the regulator is wrong. Rising fuel and food prices driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and a weak yen that pushes up the cost of imports could keep inflation above the Bank of Japan's target for much of 2022, these analysts said.

Japanese officials do not deny this problem. Thus, the Government and the Bank of Japan issued a joint statement on June 17 stating that they are concerned about the sharp fall in the national currency. Seiji Kihara, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, also said that the impact of inflation on consumer sentiment will be closely monitored. However, according to Masayoshi Amamiya, Deputy Governor of the Japanese Central Bank, the country's economy is gaining momentum, so the BOJ will continue to adhere to a relaxed monetary credit policy.

Considering the above, the general fundamental background remains on the side of the USD/JPY bulls, and its current decline can be regarded as a correction from the previous multi-year highs, which was caused by lower fuel prices and a drop in Treasury yields.

Most analysts (50%) expect the correction to continue at least to the level of 133.00-133.50. 30% of experts have voted for the fact that the pair will once again try to renew the high and rise above 137.00, and 20% believe that the pair will take a breather, moving in a sideways trend. For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. 85% of the oscillators are colored green (of which 10% are in the overbought zone), the remaining 15% have taken a neutral position. For trend indicators, 85% point north and only 15% look south. The nearest support is located at 134.40, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. Apart from breaking the immediate resistance at 135.40 and the June 22 high at 136.70, further targets for the bulls are difficult to determine. Most often, such round levels as 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

As for the calendar for the coming week, we can mark Friday, July 01, when Tankan (Q2) sentiment indexes of large manufacturers and large non-manufacturing companies in Japan will be published.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC Forecast from the President of El Salvador

We called the last review "Bloodbath or $20,000 Battle". As for the past week, there was not much blood this time, but the battle for $20,000, as predicted, did not subside. The week's low was fixed at $17,597, the maximum at $21,667, and the BTC/USD pair met Saturday, June 25, at $21,350. At this point, the total crypto market capitalization was $0.960 trillion ($0.895 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still not going to leave the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 11 points out of 100 possible (7 points a week ago).

The general mood of the market is fully consistent with this Extreme Fear. The Internet is talking again about the death of bitcoin. According to Google Trends, the number of search queries on this topic has returned to its maximum levels, close to December 2017. Recall that at that moment, approaching the coveted $20,000, the main cryptocurrency turned around and flew down, losing more than 40% of its value in a few days. The only difference with that long-standing situation is that bitcoin was approaching the $20,000 level from below then, and it is from above now. And the market was looking for a top then, and for a bottom now. Moreover, according to a number of influencers, it is not at all necessary that the bottom is at this particular mark.

So, according to Peter Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital President, a well-known cryptocurrency critic, “so far, there are no signs of surrender, which usually forms the bottom of the bearish market”. According to this gold supporter, the $20,000 mark will be the same “bull trap” as the $30,000 level was before. “Nothing falls in a straight line. It's actually a very ordered crash in slow motion," Schiff said. Recall that he predicted back in May that bitcoin would test $8,000. And he suggested in mid-June that the minimum could be even lower, around $5,000.

According to the president of Euro Pacific Capital, the collapse of the cryptocurrency market will be good for the economy. Kevin O'Leary, co-host of the business TV show Shark Tank, made a similar point. He believes that one should not be afraid of the bankruptcy of large companies during the crypto winter. “This is good for all other companies as they will learn from this. I think we will soon see a wave of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency market. I don't know who it will be. Later you will recognize those who have taken a high-risk position. But I assure you I have seen this before. They have been destroyed, and that's good,” said the millionaire.

The InvestAnswers crypto channel, in turn, named 3 possible catalysts for a further market collapse. The BTC price may fall even more if MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor decides to sell the bitcoins in the company's reserves. In addition, the potential collapse of the stablecoin Tether (USDT) and the problems of the cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital may also contribute to further capitulation of BTC. According to InvestAnswers, we should not forget about the possible sale of crypto assets by Tesla.

MicroStrategy reported a $1.2 billion loss last week due to the fall of bitcoin. As for the Three Arrows Capital fund, it now has about $2.4 billion left in assets out of $18 billion.

Big problems are experienced not only by investors, but also by miners. Due to the fall in the price of BTC and the increase in computational complexity, the total return from mining is now 65% lower than the average for the year. At the same time, the efficiency of the Antminer S19 ASIC from Bitmain is 80% worse than the level of November 2021, and the popular S9 model has lost profitability altogether. This situation has led to the fact that mining companies are forced to sell their BTC holdings in order to pay off loans and cover current operating costs, which puts pressure on the market. Their remaining reserves are estimated at 46,000 coins (about $920 million). In the event that these bitcoins are also thrown into sale, quotes will certainly fall further down.

An analyst aka Capo, who had correctly predicted the collapse of the cryptocurrency market this year, updated his forecast. In his opinion, BTC expects a decline to $16,200, and ETH to $750. According to Capo, investors are fooling themselves into believing that a short-term rally means bitcoin is bottoming the cycle: “Bull trap. Funds from altcoins flow into BTC, which will also be sold, but a little later. There is no bottom yet,” he said.

According to another specialist, crypto strategist Kevin Svenson, bitcoin has a chance to bottom in the $17,000-18,000 range, after which a short-term rally to above $30,000 may occur. At the same time, although Svenson expects this short-term growth, he does not see the prerequisites for launching a new bull market in the near future: “Overcoming the main downward resistance is the main obstacle and the process may last until the end of the year.” According to the strategist, after the breakthrough of the diagonal resistance, bitcoin can trade in a narrow range for several months and start a new uptrend only by 2024 year.

Despite the low current rate of bitcoin, many participants in the crypto industry believe in its future growth. For example, there is a belief that BTC could reach $100,000 by 2025. One of those who supported such optimism was an analyst called PlanB, who built his forecasts based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. This model worked well for three years until March 2022, after which it failed.

The Daily Gwei creator Anthony Sassano and Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin have recently criticized S2F, advising PlanB to delete their account.

The analyst reacted to criticism with restraint. He said that in the aftermath of the crash, many are looking for scapegoats, including leaders. PlanB then presented a graph of five different BTC price prediction models. According to the illustration, the most accurate picture is given by estimates based on the complexity and cost of mining the first cryptocurrency. The S2F model, in turn, offers an overly optimistic view.

Another expert, Benjamin Cowen, proposed his bitcoin bottoming model. He believes that the bottom can be predicted based on the correlation of inflation, the S&P 500 stock index and the BTC price. The analyst argues that the S&P 500 index does not historically sink to the very bottom until inflation peaks and reverses. Accordingly, BTC cannot reach the bottom for the same reason. “Macroeconomic indicators look incredibly bleak at the moment. If you go back to the 1970s, you'll see a very similar type of move where the S&P bottomed just as inflation hit its first peak. By this point, the S&P was down about 50%,” writes Cowen.

And to conclude the review, one more “prediction model”, which we put in our humorous crypto life hacks section. It was presented by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” he wrote. For reference, there are 2,301 BTC in El Salvador's public bitcoin fund, purchased at an average price of $43,900. Thus, at the moment, the loss on them is about 55%. But, according to the "model" of Nayiba Bukele, this "trifle" should not be paid attention to. The main thing is to get the most out of life!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 29, 2022, 01:52:40 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Concerns about the crypto winter have not dampened investor interest in the industry. This is stated in the analytical report of Bank of America (BofA). “Customer engagement continues to grow. The focus continues to be on the rapid development of blockchain technology.” BofA believes regulatory clarity is critical to corporate and institutional outreach. Many are currently refraining from taking action until a comprehensive legal framework is in place.
Some participants in the BofA survey recalled that the most innovative projects came from previous market downturns. The low points of the cycle are "likely beneficial for the development of the ecosystem in the long run," they added.

- Cryptocurrency payments will become a reality in the future, but they are currently not economically efficient. This was stated in an interview with Cointelegraph by one of the directors of American Express, Gonzalo Pérez del Arco. According to him, crypto payments are not relevant for a number of reasons at the moment, including high transaction costs and the unwillingness of merchants to accept digital assets.

- The recession in the cryptocurrency market will last for about 18 more months, and the industry will see the first signs of recovery after the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. This was stated by the head and founder of the Galaxy Digital cryptobank Mike Novogratz in an interview with New York Magazine. “I hope we have already seen the worst. I would be more confident about this if I knew what inflation would be like in the next two quarters. [...] I think the Fed will have to abandon the rate hike by the fall, and I believe that will make people calm down and start building again,” said the head of Galaxy Digital.
According to Novogratz, the crisis has changed people's attitudes towards high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted that the past few months have shown the industry's dependence on leverage, which no one knew about. And it will take time now for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, the situation is similar to the global financial crisis of 2008, followed by a wave of consolidation in the investment and banking industries.

- Mining companies in need of liquidity in Q3 are able to continue to exert downward pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency. This is the conclusion reached by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou, Bloomberg writes. According to the expert's calculations, public mining companies account for about 20% of the hash rate. Many of them sold bitcoins to cover operating expenses and service loans. Due to the more limited access to capital, private miners took similar steps as well. “Unloading will continue in Q3, if the profitability of production does not improve. This was already evident in May and June. There is a risk that the process will continue,” the strategist believes.
According to Panigirtzoglou, the cost of mining 1 BTC dropped from $18,000-$20,000 at the beginning of the year to about $15,000 in June due to the introduction of more energy-efficient equipment.

- The first cryptocurrency is “technically oversold”, if you look at the current price in the context of the exponential growth in wallet activity and an increase in the number of use cases. This was stated by Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of the SkyBridge Capital investment fund. The hedge fund manager advised investors to evaluate bitcoin in retrospect. With this approach, the asset will turn out to be "very cheap due to excess leverage, which is worth taking advantage of."
Scaramucci was philosophical about the collapse of Terra, which he had supported, as well as Three Arrows Capital's liquidity problems. “I have seen such mistakes made several times,” he explained. According to the financier, during periods of "easy money", when new industries or technologies are being formed, Newbie trader representatives of the sector "tend to lose relevance."

- Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen doubts that the forecasts for a high BTC rate for 2023 can come true. In particular, he spoke about the forecast of venture capital investor Tim Draper, according to which the price of bitcoin could grow by more than 1000% from current levels and reach $250,000.
“I used to believe that BTC would be above $100,000 by 2023, but now I am skeptical about this idea. Especially after the Fed's policy has changed so much over the past six months,” Cowen wrote. "I also look at other things, like social media statistics, and I see that the number of people interested in cryptocurrencies is in a downtrend. If it is difficult for people to buy gasoline, it will be even more difficult to buy bitcoin.”
Instead of a huge rally, Cowen predicts an uninteresting BTC market over the next two years: “I think the bear market will end this year, and then the accumulation phase will begin, as in 2015 and 2019. Then there will be slow preparations for the next bitcoin halving, and the Fed may lower interest rates due to the victory over inflation during this period.”

- According to the cryptanalytic platform CryptoQuant, most cyclical indicators (Bitcoin Puell Multiple, MVRV, SOPR and the MPI BTC Miner Position Index) indicate that bitcoin is close to the bottom. The readings of these indicators are based on a historical pattern that has preceded an uptrend several times. Indicators also suggest that bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. A significant amount of unrealized losses confirms this forecast.

- A crypto strategist with aka Dave the Wave, who had previously predicted the May collapse of bitcoin in 2021, expects to see a rapid increase in the BTC rate in the coming years. He uses a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model and believes that BTC can grow by 1100% within 4 years and reach $260,000. In the short term, Dave the Wave predicts the possibility of bitcoin rising to $25,000.

- Robert Kiyosaki predicted the collapse of the financial markets in autumn 2021. In his opinion, due to the actions of the US financial regulators, the value of all assets, including bitcoin, gold and securities, should have collapsed. Now, the author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad predicts another 95% drop in bitcoin and is waiting for bitcoin to drop to $1,100. And when “the losers capitulate and leave the market,” according to the economist, he will replenish his stocks of the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that Kiyosaki has previously repeatedly stated that the US dollar is dying, and called for buying more BTC, gold and silver, because, according to him, these assets help to ride out hard times.

- It is possible that the long-standing dispute over whether cryptocurrencies are securities or commodities will be put to an end. In an interview with CNBC, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chairman Gary Gensler stated that, according to his ideas, bitcoin meets all the characteristics of a commodity. The head of the SEC noted that his opinion concerns only bitcoin, and he is not going to discuss other cryptocurrencies.
A similar view was expressed a month earlier by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chairman Rostin Behnam, who also said that bitcoin and ethereum are commodities.
The cryptocurrency community enthusiastically supported the position: “This makes it almost impossible to change this classification in the future,” digital asset manager Eric Weiss tweeted.

- Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain company Red Date Technology, published an article comparing cryptocurrencies to pyramid schemes. He mentioned the May collapse of the Terra project, when the LUNA crypto asset fell to almost zero in just a few days, and the UST token lost its peg to the dollar.
In his opinion, all crypto assets are similar to a Ponzi scheme, it’s just that each has its own level of risk, depending on the market capitalization and the number of users. He added that he has never had a cryptocurrency wallet, has not bought cryptocurrencies and does not intend to buy them in the future. Even if digital assets become regulated by governments, this is unlikely to increase their value, He said.
The businessman believes that the authorities of El Salvador and the Central African Republic (CAR), who decided to legalize bitcoin, are in serious need of basic financial education. According to He, the leaders of these states put entire countries at risk, unless their original intention was to fraud their own citizens.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 01, 2022, 03:21:44 PM
June Results: NordFX's Most Prolific Trader and Partner Earned 24,000 USD Each

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in June 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The highest profit in June was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1620XXX, whose profit amounted to 24,665 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to trades in gold (XAU/USD).

The second place in the rating of the most successful traders of the month was occupied by their compatriot, account No. 1552XXX, who earned 11,405 USD on transactions in the USD/JPY currency pair.

The third place on the June podium went to the representative of East Asia (account No. 1440XXX), whose result of 10,904 USD was also achieved through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- in CopyTrading, the “veteran” KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 signal is again noticeable, which has shown a profit of 345% over the period since March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of about 67%. At the same time, it should be noted that this drawdown occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021. Other signals from this provider include KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K (for 422 days of its life, the profit on it was 157% with a drawdown of just over 45%) and KennyFXPRO - The Cannon Ball. This signal appeared on the CopyTrading showcase 90 days ago, the trading style is non-aggressive, the profit is moderate, about 25%, but the drawdown is less than 7%. Favorite pairs are still the same: AUD/NZD (58%), NZD/CAD (36%) and AUD/CAD (16%).
Quite a few interesting signals have recently appeared among startups. Here are just a few of them: TraderViet9999 (profit 39% / max drawdown 7% / life days15), Ăn ít no lâu dài (34%/11%/49), BSTAR (46%/14%/132), Tịnh Tâm -CN88 (65%/20%/10). JFX TRADING - GOLD SIGNAL (76%/23%/16), Tịnh Tâm- CN88 (64%/20%/10). These signals have quite impressive results. However, it should be understood that they have been achieved thanks to very aggressive trading. Therefore, if someone decides to subscribe, be sure to take the risk factors into account. One of the main factors in this case is a very short lifetime of these signals.

- The TOP-3 in the PAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. In 521 days on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account, they increased their capital by 118%. Also, in the top three remain: the account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3, which has shown a profit of 89% in 453 days, and the account NKFX-Ninja 136, which has generated a 76% return since June 11, 2021.
There are two more accounts that we have paid attention to. The first one, COEX.Investment – Treis, has shown a profit of 39% from October 31, 2021. The second one, Ultimate.Duo-Safe Haven, has started relatively recently, at the end of February. It has made a profit of about 29% during this time. The maximum drawdown on all five listed accounts is quite moderate, about 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission amount, 24,700 USD, was credited in June to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No. 1371XXX;
- next is a partner from South Asia, account No.1259XXX, who received 4,981 USD;
- and, finally, a partner from South Asia, account No. 1565ХХХ, who received 4,930 USD as a reward, closes the top three.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 03, 2022, 04:52:51 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 04 - 08, 2022


EUR/USD: The Dollar Is Gaining Strength Again

The EUR/USD pair moved in a sideways channel of 1.0500-1.0600 for a week and a half. However, it is clear that neither investors nor speculators are interested in such stagnation. But some kind of trigger is needed to break out of it.

The last meeting of the G7 leaders and the NATO summit did not have any particularly loud statements. At both events, a desire was expressed to continue helping Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia, and the NATO bloc was replenished with two new members, Sweden and Finland. But these results were not enough to somehow influence the quotes of the dollar and the euro.

The trigger for the strengthening of the dollar, which forced the EUR/USD pair to go south on Tuesday, June 28 and break through the lower limit of the channel the next day, was the growth in demand for protective assets amid concerns about the prospects for the world economy. And taking into account the fact that the American currency has recently acted as a protective asset, the scales have tilted in its direction.

Speaking at the annual forum of the European Central Bank in Sintra, Portugal, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that “inflation expectations in the Eurozone are much higher than before”, that “we are unlikely to return to conditions of low inflation soon”, and that the regulator “will go as far as necessary to reduce inflation to the target of 2%”. Christine Lagarde confirmed that the ECB intends to raise its key interest rate by 0.25% at its meeting on July 21 in order to achieve this goal. However, according to market participants, such a modest step is unlikely to have any serious effect. And the next meeting of the Bank will take place only in autumn, on September 08. So, most likely, inflation will continue to grow during this period.

The speech of US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who participated in the ECB forum as a colleague and guest of honor, was quite different in tone from the words of Christine Lagarde. The American assured the audience that the US economy is in a good position to cope with the active tightening of monetary policy, which is being implemented by his department.

The divergence between the ECB's careful monetary policy and the hawkish Fed has always been interpreted by the market in favor of the dollar. The same happened this time as well, and the EUR/USD pair continued its fall.

The European currency was slightly helped by weak macro data from the US in the second half of June 30. The impetus for a temporary rise in the pair was the release of data on GDP, which turned out to be less than expected, falling by 1.6% instead of the expected 1.5%. In addition, statistics showed a slowdown in economic growth rates from 5.5% to 3.5%. Data on basic spending on personal consumption in the United States did not live up to expectations either. Data on applications for unemployment benefits in the United States turned out to be noticeably worse than expected. Thus, the number of initial requests should have been reduced from 233K to 218K. However, their number decreased to only 231 thousand. The situation is similar with repeated requests, which decreased from 1.331K to just 1.328K.

However, all of the above negative factors provided only temporary support to the European currency. Fixing quarterly profit on the dollar did not help it much, and it went on the offensive again on Friday. The publication of data on inflation in the Eurozone, which accelerated from 8.1% to 8.6%, only speeded up the flight of investors to safe assets. As a result, the pair fixed a local bottom at 1.0364 and ended the five-day period at 1.0425.

The votes of experts at the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 01, are divided as follows: 35% side with the bulls, 50% - with the bears, and 15% are neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 75% are red, 10% are green, and 15% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side. The nearest resistance is located in the zone 1.0470-1.0500, then the zone 1.0600-1.0615 follows, in case of success the bulls will try to rise to the zone 1.0750-1.0770, the next target is 1.0800. Except for 1.0400, the bears' task number 1 is to break through the support zone 1.0350-1.0364, formed by the lows of May 13 and July 01. If successful, they will move on to storm the 2017 low of 1.0340, below is only 20-year-old support and the cherished goal, 1:1 parity.

This coming week, July 04 is a public holiday in the USA: the country celebrates Independence Day.  Statistics on retail sales in the Eurozone will be released on Wednesday, July 06. The publication on the same day of the ISM index of business activity in the US services sector and the minutes of the June meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) are also noteworthy. A similar minute of the ECB meeting and the ADP report on the level of employment in the US private and non-farm sectors and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits will be published on Thursday, July 07. And another portion of data from the US labor market will arrive on Friday, October 08, including such important indicators as the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Similarities and Differences with EUR/USD

GBP /USD showed similar dynamics to EUR/USD last week. The reasons for the ups and downs of quotes are also similar. Therefore, it makes no sense to list them again. The pair moved clamped in the side channel 1.2165-1.2325 for a week and a half, and then flew down on June 28. A breakdown of support at 1.2100 increased bearish pressure, and it recorded a two-week low at 1.1975. This was followed by a correction to the north, and the pair finished at 1.2095;

Despite the fact that the euro and the pound behaved similarly against the dollar, there are still differences between them. The position of the Eurozone economy is complicated by a heavy dependence on Russian natural energy, the supply of which is limited due to sanctions imposed on Russia after its invasion of Ukraine. The situation is gradually improving: it became known that the United States bypassed Russia in gas supplies to Europe in June, for the first time. However, the final solution of the energy problem is still far away.

Unlike the EU, the UK's dependence on Russian energy is minimal. However, the strengthening of the British currency is hampered by political instability. Prime Minister Boris Johnson already survived a vote of no confidence in June, with several lawmakers from his own Conservative Party voting against him. In addition, after the by-elections, the party lost two seats in the UK Parliament. Problems associated with Brexit also add nervousness.  The British pound came under additional pressure after MPs approved a bill allowing ministers to cancel part of the Northern Ireland protocol.

As for the country's economy, according to some experts, inflation in the United Kingdom will continue to grow and may exceed 11% by November.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the pair GBP/USD will try to consistently test the support of 1.1975 and 1.1932 in the near future. 40%, on the contrary, are waiting for a breakdown of the resistance at 1.2100 and further to the north. Among the trend indicators on D1, the power ratio is 100:0% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 75% indicate a fall, the remaining 25% have turned their eyes to the east. Strong support lies at 1.2000, followed by lows of July 01 at 1.1975 and of June 14 at 1.1932. The bears' medium-term target may be the March 2020 low of 1.1409.  In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the UK, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday, July 05, when the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is expected. The composite PMI index and the index of business activity in the UK services sector will be published on the same day, and the index of business activity in the construction sector of this country a day later.

USD/JPY: Just a Breather or a Change in Trend?

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USD/JPY hit a new 24-year high last week once again, climbing to a high of 136.99 on Wednesday June 29. However, the difference from the previous high of June 22 is less than 30 points, and the two-week chart already looks more like a sideways channel than an uptrend. Perhaps the strength of the bulls has dried up and they, at least, need a break.

And perhaps, finally, the long-awaited dream of Japanese importers and housewives will come true, and the yen will go on the offensive, regaining the status of a popular safe-haven currency? It's possible. But not guaranteed. The difference between the super-dove monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan and the distinctly hawkish monetary policy of the US Central Bank is too great.

Most analysts (50%) still expect the pair to move down at least to the 129.50-131.00 zone. 30% of experts vote for the fact that the pair will once again try to renew the maximum and rise above 137.00, and 20% believe that the pair will take a breather, moving in the side channel 134.50-137.00.  For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For oscillators, 65% are colored green (of which 10% are in the overbought zone), the remaining 35% have taken a neutral position. For trend indicators, 65% point north as well, and only 35% point south. The nearest support is located at 134.50-134.75, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. Apart from overcoming the immediate resistance at 136.00-136.35 and taking the height of 137.00, it is difficult to determine further targets for the bulls. Most often, such round levels as 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

No important events, be it the release of macroeconomic statistics or political factors, are expected in Japan this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will Bitcoin Drop to $1,100? We look at the US Federal Reserve.

The battle for $20,000 continued throughout the second half of June. The BTC/USD pair fell to $17,940, then rose to $21,940. It should be noted that $20,000 is historically the most important level for the main cryptocurrency. Suffice it to recall the catastrophic crash of December 2017, when bitcoin approached this mark, reaching a height of $19,270, and then collapsed by 84%. Many experts expect something similar now, predicting a further fall of another 50-80% for the BTC/USD pair. And Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicts an even more powerful collapse of bitcoin, by 95%, to $1,100.

In the meantime (Friday evening, July 01), the coin is trading in the $19,440 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market at this moment is $0.876 trillion ($0.960 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, like a week ago, is in the Extreme Fear zone at around 11 points out of 100 possible.

If you look at the charts, you can see that the bears had a clear advantage over the past week. And, in fairness, we note that bitcoin itself is not really to blame for this. It's all about the strengthening of the dollar, which is growing due to the rise in rates and the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. In such a situation, investors prefer to get rid of risky assets by purchasing US currency. Global stock markets are under pressure from sellers, the MSCI World and MSCI EM indices are going down, showing the situation in developed and emerging markets, respectively. Among the developed markets, the main pressure fell on the European sites, but did not bypass he US either: the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite, with which BTC is in direct correlation, are also moving south.

Additional downward pressure on the quotes of the first cryptocurrency is exerted by mining companies in need of liquidity. According to JPMorgan bank strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, this situation will continue in Q3 of 2022. According to the expert's calculations, public mining companies account for about 20% of the hash rate. Many of them sold bitcoins to cover operating expenses and service loans. Due to the more limited access to capital, private miners took similar steps as well. “Unloading will continue in Q3, if the profitability of production does not improve. This was already evident in May and June. There is a risk that the process will continue,” the JPMorgan strategist believes.

According to Bloomberg, the cost of mining 1 BTC from $18,000-$20,000 at the beginning of the year dropped to about $15,000 in June due to the introduction of more energy-efficient equipment. However, it is not yet clear whether this will be enough for the stable functioning of the miners.

The recession in the cryptocurrency market will last for about 18 more months, and the industry will see the first signs of recovery after the easing of the Fed’s monetary policy. This was stated by the head and founder of the Galaxy Digital crypto bank Mike Novogratz in an interview with New York Magazine. “I hope we have already seen the worst. I would be more confident about this if I knew what inflation would be like in the next two quarters. [...] I think the Fed will have to abandon the rate hike by the fall, and I believe that will make people calm down and start building again,” said the head of Galaxy Digital.

According to Novogratz, the crisis has changed people's attitudes towards high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. He noted that the past few months have shown the industry's dependence on leverage, which no one knew about. And it will take time now for the bankruptcy of weak players and the sale of collapsed assets. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, the situation is similar to the global financial crisis of 2008, followed by a wave of consolidation in the investment and banking industries.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen doubts that the forecasts for a high BTC rate for 2023 can come true. In particular, he spoke about the forecast of venture capital investor Tim Draper, according to which the price of bitcoin could grow by more than 1000% from current levels and reach $250,000.

“I used to believe that BTC would be above $100,000 by 2023, but now I am skeptical about this idea. Especially after the Fed's policy has changed so much over the past six months,” Cowen wrote. "I also look at other things, like social media statistics, and I see that the number of people interested in cryptocurrencies is in a downtrend. If it is difficult for people to buy gasoline, it will be even more difficult to buy bitcoin.”

Instead of a huge rally, Cowen predicts an uninteresting BTC market over the next two years: “I think the bear market will end this year, and then the accumulation phase will begin, as in 2015 and 2019. Then there will be slow preparations for the next bitcoin halving, and the Fed may lower interest rates due to the victory over inflation during this period.”

It is clear that many forecasts depend on the models, indicators and other analysis tools used. For example, we wrote a week ago how the creator of The Daily Gwei, Anthony Sassano, and the co-founder of Ethereum, Vitalik Buterin, criticized the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, on the basis of which a popular analyst aka PlanB issued his forecasts. Following criticism, PlanB has unveiled a chart of not one, but five different forecasting models. Indeed, S2F showed an overly optimistic view. The most accurate picture was given by estimates based on the complexity and costs of mining the first cryptocurrency.

Another analyst named Dave the Wave uses a logarithmic growth curve (LGC) model and believes that BTC can grow by 1100% within 4 years and reach $260,000. In the short term, Dave the Wave predicts the possibility of bitcoin rising to $25,000.

According to the cryptanalytic platform CryptoQuant, most cyclical indicators (Bitcoin Puell Multiple, MVRV, SOPR and the MPI BTC Miner Position Index) indicate that bitcoin is close to the bottom. The readings of these indicators are based on a historical pattern that has preceded an uptrend several times. Indicators also suggest that bitcoin is currently undervalued, signaling an imminent rally. A significant amount of unrealized losses confirms this forecast.

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital investment fund, also said that the first cryptocurrency is “technically oversold”. He made this conclusion by analyzing the current BTC price in the context of an exponential growth in wallet activity and an increase in the number of use cases. At the same time, the hedge fund manager advised investors to evaluate bitcoin in retrospect. With this approach, the asset will turn out to be "very cheap due to excess leverage, which is worth taking advantage of."

We talked at the end of the previous review about another “forecasting model” presented by the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. “My advice is to stop looking at charts and enjoy your life. If you have invested in BTC, your investment is safe, its value will rise immeasurably after the end of the bear market. The main thing is patience,” the head of state wrote.

And now Yifan He, CEO of Chinese blockchain company Red Date Technology, has responded to this advice. He compared cryptocurrencies to financial pyramids and stated that the authorities of El Salvador and the Central African Republic (CAR), who decided to legalize bitcoin, are in serious need of basic education in finance. According to He, the leaders of these states put entire countries at risk, unless their original intention was to fraud their own citizens. It is not yet known whether Naib Bukele was offended by such words. We will follow the news.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 04, 2022, 03:53:57 PM
NordFX Super Lottery: First 54 Prizes Worth $20,000 Drawn

(https://i.imgur.com/nydquRL.jpg)

The first draw of the Super Lottery by brokerage NordFX took place on July 4, 2022. It was online, and anyone could follow the prize draw on the Internet. The video of the draw has been posted on the company's official YouTube channel.

Draw No. 1 included tickets credited to NordFX clients from March 01 to June 30, 2022. There were 54 prizes for a total of $20,000.

According to the rules, the prize funds can be used by the lottery winner in trading or withdrawn from the account at any time by any of the available methods and without any restrictions.

The next draws will take place on October 06, 2022 (tickets accrued from March 01 to September 30, 2022, prize fund $20,000), and on January 04, 2023 (tickets accrued from March 01 to December 31, 2022, the prize fund $60,000).

You can enter the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several cash prizes, including two super prizes of $10,000 each, at any time. It is enough to have a Pro account at NordFX (and for those who do not have it - register and open a new one), top it up with $200 and... just trade.

Having made a trading turnover of only 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), the trader will automatically receive a virtual lottery ticket. The number of such lottery tickets for one participant is not limited. The more deposits and the greater the turnover, the more lottery tickets the participant will have, and the greater the chances of becoming a winner.  Terms of participation are available on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 06, 2022, 02:00:27 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The record decline in the price of bitcoin in June practically took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. These are the conclusions made by Glassnode analysts. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The number of daily active addresses has dropped from over 1 million in November to the current 870,000.
The outflow of bitcoin from centralized exchanges has emptied reserves to levels last seen in July 2018. Monthly rates reached 150,000 BTC (5-6% of the total) in June. The decline in exchange reserves is complemented by the indicator of “illiquid supply”. In June, it rose to a record 223,000 BTC since July 2017.
Aggressive accumulation of coins is observed among so-called shrimps (balances less than 1 BTC) and whales (over 10,000 BTC). The monthly coin accumulation rate was the first to reach 60,460 BTC (0.32% of the market supply), which is higher than the previous record of 52,100 BTC in December 2017. As for whales, they withdrew 8.99 million BTC from exchanges. In June, the rate reached 140,000 BTC, the second result in five years.

- Deutsche Bank strategists believe that the arguments for bitcoin as “digital gold” have fallen apart. Cryptocurrency has not become a safe haven amid falling stock markets, physical gold “has behaved better” in this regard.
In their opinion, bitcoin is more like diamonds, a “high-market asset” that relies mainly on marketing. They recalled that the largest player in the market, De Beers, managed to change consumer attitudes towards precious stones with an advertising campaign in the 1950s. “By selling an idea rather than a product, they have created a solid foundation for the $72 billion a year industry that has dominated for the past 80 years. What is true for diamonds is true for many goods and services, including bitcoin,” the experts said.
Deutsche Bank specialists believe that the price of bitcoin can recover to the level of $28,000 by the end of 2022. This rise will be associated with a rally in the US stock market as cryptocurrencies correlate increasingly with the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices. These benchmarks will recover to their January levels by the end of the year, holding bitcoin in their wake.

- Former hedge fund manager Cramer & Co and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer believes the US Fed has won a "remarkable victory" in the fight against cryptocurrencies. “There is a front in the war against inflation with the Fed's outstanding victory: it's a battle against financial speculation. [...] The work on destroying cryptocurrencies is almost complete, but they don't seem to know about it yet,” he said.
According to Cramer, digital assets do not protect investors from anything, and the Fed needs to continue to fight inflation, especially in the issue of wages.

- The financier Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, has admitted that the current market situation is just the middle of a bear cycle for bitcoin. The investor, who became the prototype of the hero of the movie "The Big Short", believes that the first cryptocurrency can continue to fall. «Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P 500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there,” wrote Burry.
Recall that, according to Arcane Research researchers, the potential for a decrease in the price of bitcoin remains until the level of $10,350.

- The worst of the bear market may be behind us as the strong players in the crypto industry “rescue” the weak ones to contain the “infection”. This was stated by JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. The specialist could have in mind the interest of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in buying the BlockFi landing platform. The media also mentioned the online broker Robinhood as a target for the takeover. Previously, the FTX exchange supported the cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital. The expert mentioned the high rates of venture financing in May-June as an additional factor for optimism.
Panigirtzoglou also added that "the echoes of the deleveraging process will continue for some time yet," citing the default of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

- Crypto trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that the market will face an exhaustion of sellers, and long-term investors will have the opportunity to purchase BTC in a price range that offers the maximum reward. “Historically, the 200-week moving average has been considered a bottom indicator for BTC. Things may be a little different in the current cycle. Instead of bottoming out at the SMA200, bitcoin could form a macro range below it. In fact, anything below will represent a peak buying opportunity,” wrote Rekt Capital.
The trader noted that while bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, the prerequisites for a new bull cycle will eventually open up: “Bitcoin may still be in the acceleration phase downtrend, and it will precede the stage of multi-month consolidation, followed by the stage of a new upward macro trend.”

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort believes that investing in bitcoin can protect investors' funds from inflation in the long run. “If you look beyond the 24-month horizon, you can definitely make money if you're lucky. If you take a three- or five-year period, I will be shocked if you do not make money, because the basic principles of bitcoin are unshakable,” he said, explaining that the supply of the first cryptocurrency is limited to 21 million digital coins, and inflation in the world continues to grow.
Belfort believes that bitcoin is now behaving like a tech stock, correlating with the Nasdaq index. However, investments by institutional investors in the first cryptocurrency cannot yet be called large-scale, since bitcoin is still in its infancy. For an extensive influx of institutional money into the crypto-currency sector, well-designed regulation of crypto-assets is necessary.
Recall that earlier Jordan Belfort was convicted of fraud related to the securities market. His memoir inspired director Martin Scorsese to create the famous film The Wolf of Wall Street.

- Charles Erith, CEO of ByteTree investment company, believes that bitcoin and gold will be important components of investment portfolios for many years to come. Not because they are guaranteed to increase in price, but because they work as insurance against mistakes in an era of inflation. However, according to the financier, a lot depends on the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.

- The cost of bitcoin will fall under the pressure of the American factor in the coming months. The US economy is entering a recession, so capital will leave risky assets. This is the opinion of Timothy Peterson, investment manager from Cane Island Alternative Advisors. According to his calculations, the probability of a recession in the US has risen to 70% and the BTC price may collapse by 20% or even 40% by the end of summer.
The expert recalled that he had already predicted the continuation of the negative trend in the crypto market, and in the end he was right. The quarter turned out to be the worst for bitcoin in the last ten years.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 09, 2022, 05:46:22 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 11 - 15, 2022


EUR/USD: One Step to 1.0000

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We have repeatedly written about the dollar's desire to achieve parity with the euro 1:1. But we did not expect that this could happen so quickly: the EUR/USD pair found a local bottom at the level of 1.0071 on Friday, July 08. Only 71 points remained until 1.0000. The last time it was so low was in December 2002.

The week's high was recorded at 1.0462. Thus, the US currency squeezed out the European currency by almost 400 points from July 04 to July 8. And there are two reasons for this.

The first is the general strengthening of the dollar, whose DXY index has renewed 20-year highs and reached a height of 107.77 on July 08. As before, the main reason for such dynamics lies in the tightening of the monetary policy (QT) of the US Central Bank. The minutes of the June meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) published on Wednesday, July 06 confirmed once again the regulator's desire to curb inflation at any cost. The main tool here should be a sharp increase in the refinancing rate for federal funds. Recall that the rate was raised immediately by 0.75% in June, for the first time since 1994. As follows from the FOMC minutes, the members of the Committee believe that the rate will be increased by another 50-75 basis points at the next meeting on July 27.

Recall that the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who participated in the ECB forum in the Portuguese city of Sintra, assured the audience that the US economy is well positioned to cope with the active tightening of monetary policy, which is being implemented by his department.

It should be noted here that there is a rather rare situation in the markets when US stock indices also grow along with the growth of the dollar. Thus, the S&P500 grew by 7.5% (from 3635.60 to 3910.60) since June 17, and the Dow Jones - by 6.1% (29646.60 to 31463.00). The reason for this, most likely, is that investors invest part of the dollars received from the sale of the euro, other currencies, as well as risky assets of other countries, in shares of American companies. And this is despite the fact that Jerome Powell made it clear at the press conference in Sintra that a recession in the US economy is inevitable, and the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta announced that US GDP could decline by 2.1% in the current quarter. But, apparently, the situation in other countries is even worse, so investors have very limited choice.

The second factor putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair is the problems of the European economy related to the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its armed invasion of Ukraine, which threaten the EU with a protracted energy crisis.

ECB President Christine Lagarde said a week ago that “inflation expectations in the Eurozone are much higher than before”, that “we are unlikely to return to conditions of low inflation soon”, and that the regulator “will go as far as necessary to reduce inflation to the target of 2%”. But less than a few days later, Bundesbank chief Joachim Nagel urged the ECB to be extremely cautious in terms of tightening monetary policy, as raising interest rates would push the eurozone's weakest economies to the brink of bankruptcy. As a result, the market decided that the regulator would raise the key rate very slowly and responded to the words of Joachim Nagel with an even more active sale of the euro.

It should be noted that the release of macro statistics has recently become just an excuse for a correction or, conversely, for a return to the general bearish trend: in total, the pair has lost about 2,200 points since January 2021, and the fall has been more than 5,800 points since July 2008. After a small correction, the last chord sounded at the level of 1.0177 last week. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 08, the voices of experts are divided as follows: 65% of experts expect the resumption of movement to the south, 15% side with the bulls and 20% cannot decide on the forecast. The indicator readings on D1 give a completely unambiguous signal: all 100% of oscillators and trend indicators are colored red. The only thing worth noting is that 15% of the oscillators are in the oversold zone.

With the exception of support at 1.0160 and last week's low at 1.0071, bears' task No.1 is to celebrate the victory by hitting 1.0000. With a certain degree of probability, due to inertia, the pair may fall even lower, to a strong support/resistance zone of 200, 0.9900-0.9930. In this case, the level of 1.0000 will have to be attacked not by bears, but by bulls. Although this may not happen. Suffice it to recall 2017, when, having fallen to 1.0340, the EUR/USD pair reversed and soared to 1.2555. The immediate target of the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0350-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0450-1.0600 and 1.0625-1.0760. If successful, the bulls will try to rise to the 1.0750-1.0770 zone, the next target is 1.0800.

As for the economic calendar for the coming week, Wednesday 13 July can be highlighted, when data from the consumer markets in Germany and the US will arrive. Another portion of macro statistics can be expected on Friday, July 15, when retail sales and the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index become known.

GBP/USD: Battle for 1.2000

Unlike the collapsed euro, the GBP/USD managed to cling to the 1.2000 level. Having started the week at 1.2095, it first rose to 1.2164, then fell to 1.1875, but eventually managed to complete the five-day period at 1.2030. This is despite the political crisis in the UK and the statement of a number of ministers, including Prime Minister Boris Johnson himself, about their resignation.

Other factors, including economic ones, logically, should also put downward pressure on the pound. Problems related to Brexit are among them.  Recall that there is a bill in the country's Parliament that allows to unilaterally change the customs procedures between Britain and Northern Ireland, which had been agreed as part of the deal to exit the EU. In response, the outraged foreign ministers of Germany and Ireland have already accused the United Kingdom of violating international agreements and predicted the severing of most trade ties between the countries.

The highest inflation in 40 years is also depressing. And although the UK is much less dependent on Russian energy supplies than the EU, this does not exclude the possibility that inflation in the country by November could exceed 11%, pushing the economy into a deep recession.

However, this threat may have served as support for the pound, as it pushes the Bank of England (BOE) to tighten monetary policy more quickly. Thus, the hawkish statements of the leadership of the British regulator, made on Thursday, July 07, stopped the fall of the GBP/USD pair and even managed to reverse it to the north.

First, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Katherine Mann said that the uncertainty about the inflationary process strengthens the arguments in favor of an outstripping increase in interest rates. And soon the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Hugh Pill, announced that, if necessary, he was ready to accept a faster pace of tightening the policy of the Central Bank.

At the moment, 60% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue to decline in the near future, 15%, on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards, and 25% have taken a neutral position.

The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators on D1, the ratio of forces is 85:15% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 75% indicate a fall, the remaining 25% have turned their eyes to the north. The nearest support is at 1.2000, followed by the 1.1875-1.1930 zone. The mid-term target for the bears could be the March 2020 low of 1.1409.  In case of growth, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325, 1.2400-1.2430, 1.2460, then the targets in the area of 1.2500 and 1.2600 follow.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the UK, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday, July 12, when the speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is expected. Data on manufacturing production and GDP of the UK will be published the next day, Wednesday, on July 13.

USD/JPY: The Calm Before the Storm?

USD/JPY did not renew its 24-year high for the first time in five weeks. As we predicted, it took a breather, spent five days in the trading range 134.77-136.55 and ended it at 136.06.

Recall that the bulls failed to take the height of 137.00 on June 29, stopping just one step away from it: at the level of 136.99. Will they go on a new assault? The number of supporters of such a scenario among the surveyed experts turned out to be... 5%. 35% are waiting for the side trend to continue. The majority of analysts (60%) are still counting on a decisive downward movement of the pair: what if, finally, the long-awaited dream of Japanese importers and housewives finally comes true, and the yen goes on the offensive, regaining the status of a sought-after safe-haven currency?

For indicators on D1, the picture is very different from the opinion of experts. For oscillators, 65% are green, 10% are red, and the remaining 25% are neutral. For trend indicators, 100% point north.

The nearest support is at 135.50, the next one is at 134.75, followed by zones and levels at 134.00, 133.50, 133.00, 132.30, 131.50, 129.70-130.30, 128.60 and 128.00. Apart from overcoming the immediate resistance at 136.35 and taking the height of 137.00, it is difficult to determine further targets for the bulls. Most often, such round levels as 137.00, 140.00 and 150.00 appear in the forecasts. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in the last 3 months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August or early September.

No important events, be it the release of macroeconomic statistics or political factors, are expected in Japan this week. The only thing to note is the speech by the head of the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, on Monday, July 11. However, one should not expect any sensational statements from him.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Run or Wait?

Fight for $20,000 does not subside for more than three weeks. At times, it seemed that a catastrophe was imminent, and the BTC/USD pair would fly further into the abyss in a moment. Moreover, some analysts predicted that it would lose another 50-80% of the current value. And Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, predicted an even more powerful collapse, by 95%, to $1,100. But the bulls have managed to hold this front line so far.

We already wrote that $20,000 is historically the most important level for the main cryptocurrency. Suffice it to recall the disaster of December 2017, when bitcoin approached this mark, reaching a height of $19,270, and then collapsed by 84%. True, the attack on $20,000 came from the south then, and it is from the north now.

Some crypto enthusiasts are still trying to insist on the independence of the digital asset market. They believe that the reason for the large-scale sale of coins and the collapse of the market three times was the collapse of a number of projects. But, in our opinion, the causal relationship is violated in this statement. In fact, global risk aversion is at the heart of all the problems. Frightened by the expectation of a global recession and a sharp tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy, they are actively getting rid of all risky assets. Global stock markets are under pressure from sellers, which is clearly seen on the charts of such stock indices as S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq Composite, with which BTC is in direct correlation. Where they go, bitcoin goes, and there has long been no talk of any independence of it. It was these global problems of the world economy that led to the collapse of a number of important crypto projects, which, in turn, only increased panic among digital asset holders.

Analyzing the situation, Former hedge fund manager Cramer & Co and host of CNBC's Mad Money show Jim Cramer announced the US Fed has won a "remarkable victory" in the fight against cryptocurrencies. “There is a front in the war against inflation with the Fed's outstanding victory: it's a battle against financial speculation. [...] The work on destroying cryptocurrencies is almost complete, but they don't seem to know about it yet,” he said.

According to Glassnode, bitcoin's record price decline in June almost took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The number of daily active addresses has dropped from over 1 million in November to the current 870,000. The growth rate of the number of participants decreased to the anti-records of 2018-19. and do not currently exceed 7,000 new users per day.

The largest outflow is recorded among institutional investors (companies with investments from $1 million), public miners (expanding production on credit), as well as speculators and casual players. Institutions withdrew a record $188 million from crypto funds in June, and the volume of “illiquid supply” rose to the highest level since July 2017 at 223,000 BTC.

Thanks to a correction in the US stock market, bitcoin managed to rise above $20,000 last week. At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, July 08), the coin is trading in the $21,800 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.966 trillion ($0.876 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly improved over the week, rising from 11 to 20 points, but is still in the Extreme Fear zone.

What is the future of the main cryptocurrency? According to Timothy Peterson, investment manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, the price of bitcoin will continue to fall in the coming months under the pressure of the American factor. According to the expert’s calculations, the probability of a recession in the United States has increased to 70%, respectively, capital will continue to leave risky assets, and the BTC price may collapse by 20% or even 40% by the end of summer. Recall that, according to Arcane Research researchers, the potential for a decrease in the price of bitcoin remains until the level of $10,350.

The financier Michael Burry, who predicted the 2007 mortgage crisis, also admits that the current market situation is only the middle of a bearish cycle. This investor, who became the prototype of the hero of the movie "The Big Short", believes that the first cryptocurrency can continue to fall. «Adjusted for inflation, 2022 first half S&P500 down 25-26%, and Nasdaq down 34-35%, Bitcoin down 64-65%. That was multiple compression. Next up, earnings compression. So, maybe halfway there,” wrote Burry.

Deutsche Bank specialists believe that the price of bitcoin may rise to the level of $28,000 only by the end of 2022. And they also attribute this growth with the growth of the US stock market. In their opinion, the Nasdaq-100 and S&P500 indices will be able to recover to January levels by the end of the year and pull bitcoin with them.

The forecast of Nikolaos Panigirtsoglou, a representative of another bank, JPMorgan strategist, looks quite accurate. He admits that the worst of the bear market may be over now, as the strong players in the crypto industry “rescue” the weak ones to contain the “infection”. The specialist could have in mind the interest of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange in buying the BlockFi landing platform. The media also mentioned the online broker Robinhood as a target for the takeover. Previously, the FTX exchange supported the cryptocurrency broker Voyager Digital. Panigirtzoglou also added that "the echoes of the deleveraging process will continue for some time yet," citing the default of hedge fund Three Arrows Capital.

Crypto trader Rekt Capital is waiting for the market to run out of sellers at some point, and long-term investors will be able to buy BTC in a price range that offers the maximum reward. “Historically, the 200-week moving average has been considered a bottom indicator for BTC. Things may be a little different in the current cycle. Instead of bottoming out at the SMA200, bitcoin could form a macro range below it. In fact, anything below will represent a peak buying opportunity,” wrote Rekt Capital.

The trader noted that while bitcoin remains in a strong downtrend, the prerequisites for a new bull cycle will eventually open up: “Bitcoin may still be in the acceleration phase downtrend, and it will precede the stage of multi-month consolidation, followed by the stage of a new upward macro trend.”

All of the above forecasts indicate that it will take at least several months to wait for a new bullish rally. But former stockbroker Jordan Belfort advises to be patient not for months, but for years. “If you look beyond the 24-month horizon, you can definitely make money if you're lucky. If you take a three- or five-year period, I will be shocked if you do not make money, because the basic principles of bitcoin are unshakable,” he said, explaining that the supply of the first cryptocurrency is limited to 21 million digital coins, and inflation in the world continues to grow.

Recall that earlier Jordan Belfort was convicted of fraud related to the securities market. His memoir inspired director Martin Scorsese to create the famous film The Wolf of Wall Street. But if earlier this broker violated the law, now he actively advocates for a clear regulation of crypto assets.

Charlie Erith, CEO of investment firm ByteTree, shared a view similar to Belfort’s. Like The Wolf of Wall Street, he looked far into the future, identifying bitcoin and gold as important components of long-term investment portfolios. Not because they are guaranteed to increase in price, but because they work as insurance against mistakes in an era of inflation. However, according to the financier, much will depend on the policy of the US Federal Reserve and other central banks.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 13, 2022, 04:58:39 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/uJzDpQp.jpg)

- 60% of investors surveyed by Bloomberg believe that a decline in the price of bitcoin to $10,000 is more likely. The remaining 40% are waiting for a recovery to $30,000. The study involved 950 respondents. Compared to institutions, there were more skeptics among retail investors. Almost every fourth called the first cryptocurrency “garbage” (18% of professional market participants).
Respondents expressed confidence that recent developments in the crypto market will prompt regulators to tighten their supervision of the industry. This can increase trust and lead to further popularization of digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents expressed confidence in the strong positions of bitcoin and Ethereum in the next five years, despite the active preparation by Central banks to launch their own digital currencies (CBDC).
As for NFTs, only 9% of the study participants see them as an investment opportunity. For the rest, non-fungible tokens are art projects and status symbols, which will no longer return to the previous hype.

- The inflow of funds into cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $15 million in the first week of July. The rate of inflows into bear funds, which allow bitcoin shorts, has slowed from $51 million a week earlier to $6.3 million, according to data from investment firm CoinShares. There was an inflow to Ethereum-based products for the third week in a row. Analysts have linked this to Ethereum's upcoming transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. Investors remain interested in products based on several assets. Investments in them have amounted to $217.3 million since the beginning of the year.

- Gold advocate and critic of the first cryptocurrency, Peter Schiff, said he was ready to sell his Euro Pacific bank for bitcoins or for any other digital asset. “Actually, yes, I would sell the bank for anything if the regulators let me do it. My main goal is to protect clients,” he wrote.
Recall that regulators in Puerto Rico closed Euro Pacific in early July due to allegations of insolvency and non-compliance. Schiff said that government authorities are taking revenge on him for criticizing excessive taxation and control by the authorities. According to him, the regulators have no evidence of violations, the bank has no loans or debts, but there are enough funds to fully pay all depositors.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that he does not believe in the possibility of reducing the price of the first cryptocurrency to $13,000. “There is a feeling that we are 90% over this deleveraging. […] The problem is that further growth requires more faith and new capital,” he said. According to Novogratz, companies in the cryptocurrency market had too many leveraged positions. This led to the bankruptcy of some of them. He also predicted a sideways trend in the digital asset industry until the US Federal Reserve stops raising the base rate. According to the head of Galaxy Digital, it will take about 18 months.
Rockefeller International CEO Ruchir Sharma also noted that bitcoin needs to get rid of excess leverage in order to become sustainable again.

- Ethereum should be classified as a security, since the asset was originally distributed to investors as part of an ICO. This was stated by the head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, who added that the periodic software updates of the Ethereum network, behind which the development team stands, are another argument in favor of such a classification. In his opinion, for a cryptocurrency to be considered a commodity, it should not have an issuer or someone who would “make decisions”.
Saylor also stated that the tokens of all networks based on Proof-of-Stake are securities. According to him, investing in these assets is “extremely risky” due to potential problems with regulators. According to the top manager, this is one of the key reasons why MicroStrategy only invests in bitcoin.

- Soo Kim, a former CIA analyst, said that North Korea will continue to focus on cyberattacks on cryptocurrency and technology companies as the DPRK regime faces severe shortages of food and other resources.
These attacks will become more sophisticated over time as the country struggles with lingering economic sanctions and profiting from cyberattacks has become a "way of life" for North Korea. According to the analyst, the country takes this job very seriously: it's not just some person sitting in the basement and trying to steal cryptocurrency. Pyongyang provides its hackers with the best equipment and education as they bring it a critical income stream. First of all, according to Kim, hackers pay attention to unsuspecting employees of technology companies and try to find vulnerabilities through them, and often get a job in one of the Western or Asian companies themselves.
Earlier, Reuters experts estimated that due to the downturn in the market, the cryptocurrency stolen by North Korea over the past year has fallen in price by $400 million.

- Miners in the US began to move to new states in order not to burn out on rising electricity prices. According to the US government, electricity costs in the country will grow by an average of 5% this summer. But it all depends on each individual state. For example, according to the forecast of the US Chamber of Commerce, electricity growth in New England will be 16.4%, while in the Southwest it will be only 2.4%.
However, moving is far from the only way to save your mining investment. There are many incentives for renewable energy in the US. For example, when installing large solar panels, miners can receive incentives from the government, sometimes reaching 50% of the electricity bill.

- Macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden believes that although there are no clear bullish signals in the crypto market, the time for global capitulation has already passed. In her opinion, the worst part of the bearish trend ended along with the volatile first half of 2022, when BTC lost over 56% of its value. The macro strategist believes that bitcoin can recover as the massive BTC sell-off has stopped.
However, Alden warns that bitcoin could still go down one step. “Macroeconomically, there are still not many bullish catalysts at the moment, and I would not rule out further price movement down.” “We have seen that, for the most part, bitcoin is very strongly correlated with the growth of the money supply, especially in dollars. So, when we have had a huge increase in the money supply around the world over the past couple of years, bitcoin has also done very well,” explained Alden. Now the reverse is happening as the US Federal Reserve and other Central banks try to tamp down inflation. And this, accordingly, affects the price of the cryptocurrency.

- CEO of Rockefeller International, formerly chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma believes that bitcoin will soon return to growth and reach new heights. The financier recalled the situation with Amazon in the early 2000s, during the dot-com bubble, when the retailer's share price collapsed by 90%. However, stocks then bounced back, and rose another 300 times over the next 20 years. The top manager of Rockfeller International believes that a similar situation could happen with the first cryptocurrency.
Sharma noted that bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become victims of a “global speculative mania.” At the same time, the deleveraging process is not over yet, and the bitcoin rate may further decline in the next six months against the backdrop of a fall in the stock market. Sharma recalled that a bearish trend usually lasts about a year in the stock market, and stock indices fall by 35%. At the moment, the market has decreased by only 20%. “I would not say that we are already at the bottom. The bearish trend in the US, which is the driver of demand for risky assets around the world, is still ongoing,” Sharma said.
According to the head of Rockfeller International, the position of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is currently under threat. At the same time, he does not see competitors from other fiat currencies, but a “window of opportunity” has opened for cryptocurrencies. Sharma believes that top cryptocurrencies will become much more stable within three to five years, which will allow them to displace the US dollar.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 15, 2022, 09:42:06 AM
NordFX Copy Trading



Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 16, 2022, 12:53:45 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 18 - 22, 2022


EUR/USD: Parity 1:1 Achieved

What we've been talking about over the last few months has come true: the EUR/USD hit 1.0000 on Tuesday, July 12. The local bottom was fixed on Thursday July 14 at 0.9951. The last time the pair was so low was in December 2002. Note that the dollar strengthened not only against the euro, but also against other leading world currencies. The DXY index is also in the zone of 20-year highs, having approached the height of 108.99 on July 14.

The greenback's rally was spurred on by recent US inflation data. The consumer price index (CPI) reached 9.1% in June, exceeding the forecast of 8.8%. Note that this was observed only 12 times in 110 years, and the last time inflation rose above 9% was in 1981. This record (rather an anti-record) strengthened market expectations regarding the pace of tightening monetary policy (QT) by the US Central Bank. If earlier it was assumed that the rate would be increased by 50-75 basis points at the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on July 27, there is talk now that federal funds costs may increase immediately by 100 bp. The probability of such a move is estimated by analysts at 82%, and the probability that the rate will be raised by a total of 175 basis points at the two upcoming meetings is 75%, according to CME Group FedWatch.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) President Rafael Bostic dismissed the possibility, adding that inflation could rise even further by the end of the year, requiring the Fed to act even more decisively. According to experts, the desire of the US Central Bank to stop inflation at any cost may lead to the fact that the rate will eventually reach 4.00% (it is 1.75% at the moment). And this will be done even though the country's economy may fall into the deepest recession.

What is good for the dollar is bad for the stock market. Flight from risky assets intensified amid market fears about a prolonged economic downturn. S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell down, while DXY flew up. Data on retail sales in the US, which were released on Friday evening, July 15, slowed down the flight. With a previous reading of -0.1% and a forecast of 0.8%, this figure reached 1.0% in June, which pushed the EUR/USD pair up and finished at 1.0082.

It should be noted that the tightening of the Fed's monetary policy creates problems not only for the US economy, but also for the entire global economy. The share of the US dollar in international reserves was 59% at the end of 2020, and the share in international settlements as of February 2022 reached 39%. Thus, the dollar is both the main reserve currency and the main means of payment in the world. With its strengthening, the burden increases primarily on emerging market economies that have received large loans from the IMF. Debt service difficulties have already led to a default in Sri Lanka, problems await El Salvador, Tunisia, Egypt, Pakistan, and Ghana.

The popularity of the dollar as a defensive asset will continue to grow with the approach of a recession and thanks to the policy of the US Federal Reserve. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 15, this forecast is supported by 60% of experts. Further correction to the north is expected by 30%, and 10% of analysts have given a neutral forecast. The oscillator readings on D1 give a completely unambiguous signal: all 100% are colored red. There are 85% of those among the trend indicators, the remaining 15% have taken the opposite position.

The closest strong support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0040-1.0050 zone, followed by the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The nearest serious target of the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0350-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0450-1.0600 and 1.0625-1.0770. There are several levels on the way to 1.0350, which the pair broke very easily during the fall, so it is still difficult to determine which of them can become a serious obstacle when moving up.

The highlight of the coming week will undoubtedly be the ECB meeting on Thursday July 21. It is expected that the regulator will raise the interest rate from 0.0% to 0.25%. Such a move could support the euro a little, although it looks rather timid against the backdrop of the Fed's hawkish policy. Of undoubted interest are the subsequent press conference and comments of the ECB management, which should give the market an idea about the future plans of this regulator.

Other events include the publication on Tuesday, July 19 of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the report on bank lending in the Eurozone. Data on the labor market and manufacturing activity in the US will be released on Thursday, July 21, and the value of the PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) in the manufacturing sector in Germany will become known the next day. In addition, we advise you to pay attention to the decision of the People's Bank of China on the interest rate on July 20. This decision is especially interesting, since China's GDP in the Q2 2022. decreased by 2.6% against the forecast of a decrease by 1.5%, which indicates the approach of the country's economy to a recession.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.2000 Is Lost, But It's Not Over Yet

The GBP/USD pair, unlike the EUR/USD, has not yet broken a multi-year record, but is already close to it. The local bottom was fixed at 1.1759 last week, and the last chord of the five-day period was set at 1.1865. Below are two serious targets: 1.1409, the collapse point caused by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020, and the December 1984 low of 1.0757. We think it's too early to talk about the parity of the pound with the dollar 1:1.

The macro data released on Wednesday July 13 turned out to be unexpectedly green. Thus, the UK GDP (yoy) with a forecast of 2.7% in reality amounted to 3.5%, while the June GDP, with the previous value of -0.2% and the forecast of 0.1%, rose to 0.5%. Despite this positive, the factors of pressure on the country's economy have not gone away. Among them are problems related to Brexit and the customs conflict between Britain and Northern Ireland. Inflation remains the highest in 40 years, and it is possible that it could exceed 11% by November, pushing the economy into a deep recession. We must add the government crisis that caused the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson to all this, as well as the difficulties associated with sanctions against Russia due to its armed invasion of Ukraine.

Despite statements from BoE officials that they are ready to accept a faster pace of monetary tightening, in reality the regulator is acting more cautiously than the market expected. The current interest rate is 1.25%, which is lower than the corresponding Fed rate (1.75%), and the next BOE meeting will take place only on August 04, 2022. And this cannot but exert downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.

At the moment, 50% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 25% on the contrary expect a rebound upwards, and 25% have taken a neutral position. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators on D1, the power ratio is 100:0% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is slightly less: 90% indicate a fall, the remaining 10% have turned their eyes to the north.

The nearest support is at 1.1800, followed by the July 14 low of 1.1759. Further, 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the 1.1400-1.1450 zone. The immediate task of the bulls is to rise to the 1.1875-1.1915 zone, and then a new stage of the battle for 1.2000, which they ingloriously lost last week. In case of victory, the pair will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

As for the macroeconomic calendar for the United Kingdom, we advise you to pay attention to Tuesday July 19, when data from the UK labor market arrives. The speech of the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey is scheduled on the same day. The value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, July 20, and a whole package of data regarding the state of the British economy will be received on Friday. It will include retail sales data for June, as well as data on business activity (PMI) both in individual sectors and in the country as a whole.

USD/JPY: The Storm After the Calm

We called the previous review “The Calm Before the Storm” as USD/JPY did not renew its 24-year high for the first time in five weeks and took a breather. But since a storm was promised, it must break out. A new high at 139.38 was recorded on July 14, and the pair met the end of the trading session at 138.50.

The reason for the new weakening of the yen is the same: the difference between the hawkish monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve and the ultra-dove one of the Bank of Japan (BOJ). By the way, the next meeting of the Japanese Central Bank is to be held next week, on Thursday, July 21, at which it is likely to once again leave the interest rate unchanged at the negative level of -0.1%.

If we usually talk about the fight between bulls and bears, then regarding the future of the yen, the fight is between… analysts and BOJ. The former, for the most part, are waiting for the Central Bank to finally change its policy, and therefore stubbornly vote for the strengthening of the yen. The latter, no less stubbornly, leaves this policy unchanged, and the USD/JPY pair stubbornly moves up.

This time, only 40% of experts speak about the pair's movement to the height of 142.00. The remaining 60% hope for a downward trend reversal. There are no such disagreements in the readings of indicators on D1: all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are looking north, although 20% of the latter are in the overbought zone. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 137.65, 137.00, 136.60 135.50-135.70, 134.00, 133.50 and 133.00. The bulls' targets ¬are 140.00 and 142.00. And if the pair's growth rates remain the same as in recent months, it will be able to reach the 150.00 zone in late August - early September

Apart from the meeting of the Japanese Central Bank and the subsequent press conference of its management, there are no other significant events expected in Japan this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Beginning of the End of the Bear Phase

(https://i.imgur.com/9X6Tn36.jpg)

The previous review drew attention to an anomaly when both the dollar and the US stock indices - S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq were growing at the same time. Things fell into place last week: the US currency continued to grow, and the indices fell down. It should be noted to bitcoin's credit that, despite another wave of investor flight from risks, it managed to stay in the $20,000 zone. Now, how long will it last? 

CEO of Rockefeller International, who previously held the post of chief strategist at Morgan Stanley, Ruchir Sharma, recalled that a bearish trend usually lasts about a year in the stock market, and stock exchanges indices are falling by 35%. At the moment, the market has decreased by only 20%. So we can expect a further drop in demand for risky assets including bitcoin in the next six months.

“I would not say that we are already at the bottom,” Sharma said, adding that bitcoin will return to growth and reach new highs after the end of the bear cycle. The financier recalled the situation with Amazon in the early 2000s, during the dot-com bubble, when the retailer's share price collapsed by 90%. However, stocks then bounced back, and rose another 300 times over the next 20 years.

If you look at the BTC/USD chart, it's easy to see that the flagship currency has been clinging to round levels lately. So, bulls and bears fought for $40,000 from April 11 to May 5. The front line was at $30,000 from May 10 to June 10. The battle has been taking place in the $20,000 zone since mid-June. At the moment, 60% of investors surveyed by Bloomberg consider another decline in the price of bitcoin more likely, this time to $10,000. The remaining 40% are waiting for a recovery to $30,000. The study involved 950 respondents. Compared to institutions, there were more skeptics among retail investors. Almost every fourth called the first cryptocurrency “garbage” (18% of professional market participants).

Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in an interview with CNBC that he does not believe in the possibility of reducing the price of the first cryptocurrency to $13,000. “There is a feeling that we are 90% over this deleveraging. […] The problem is that further growth requires more faith and new capital,” he said. According to Novogratz, the sideways trend of digital assets will last until the US Federal Reserve stops raising the base rate, which will take about 18 months.

Macroeconomics expert Lyn Alden made a similar point. She believes that although there are no clear bullish signals in the crypto market, the time for global capitulation has already passed. In her opinion, the worst part of the bearish trend ended along with the unstable first half of 2022. The macro strategist believes that bitcoin can recover as the massive BTC sell-off has stopped.

However, Alden warns that bitcoin could still go down one step. “Macroeconomically, there are still not many bullish catalysts at the moment, and I would not rule out further price movement down.” “We have seen that, for the most part, bitcoin is very strongly correlated with the growth of the money supply, especially in dollars. So, when we have had a huge increase in the money supply around the world over the past couple of years, bitcoin has also done very well,” explained Alden. 1Now the reverse is happening as the US Federal Reserve and other central banks try to tamp down inflation. This, accordingly, affects the price of the cryptocurrency. In other words, now that the flow of cheap liquidity has dried up and interest rates are rising, investors prefer not to get involved in risky assets.

Some experts prefer to call what is happening in the crypto market not a collapse, but simply another deep correction. In addition, referring to historical data, they declare entering the final phase of a bear market. So, at the end of 2018, the total drop was 84% from the previous historical maximum. The BTC/USD pair has currently fallen from the November 11, 2021 high by only 71%. Thus, if we follow this model, we can expect the completion of the correction in the region of $10,000-11,000, and the subsequent consolidation may last about a year or more.

According to Glassnode, market shrinkage has virtually eliminated the rest of the "market tourists" from the game, leaving only hodlers "at the front". On average, unrealized losses of each of them are now 33%. This is not the worst indicator in history, which also suggests that the final bearish phase has just begun.

The start of the final phase is also signaled by the capitulation of the miners, which has a high correlation with the bottoming of bitcoin. Most of the public mining companies used to expand their production with loans. Now their earnings have dropped to 50%, forcing them to sell off their coin holdings to cover operating and borrowing costs. Glassnode estimates that miner inventories are now around 70,000 BTC worth about $1.3 billion. And in the event of a prolonged consolidation, they will also be forced to put them on sale, which will put additional pressure on the market.

Please note that in this case, we are talking only about the beginning, and not about the end of the final phase of the bearish trend. Thus, the surrender of miners in 2018-19 lasted four months, while the current cycle lasts a little more than a month.

As for Ethereum, the dynamics of the ETH/USD pair quotes almost repeats the dynamics of BTC/USD. Some experts do not exclude its temporary rise to $1,280, however, they believe that this will be another trap for the bulls. And the pair will return to the $1,000 zone after its triggering. The next target of the bears is $500.

Returning to the Bloomberg survey, most of the 950 investors surveyed expressed confidence in the strong position of bitcoin and ethereum over the next five years. In their opinion, developments in the crypto market will prompt regulators to tighten supervision over the industry. This can increase trust and lead to further popularization of digital assets. Ruchir Sharma of Rockefeller International also believes that  top cryptocurrencies will become much more stable within three to five years, which will allow them to seriously push the US dollar.

As of this writing (Friday evening, July 15), bitcoin is trading in the $20,900 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.945 trillion ($0.966 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped 5 points over the week from 20 to 15 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 20, 2022, 04:04:03 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Aqhykxu.jpg)

- Congress and the SEC should take a tougher stance on the cryptocurrency industry. This was stated by a member of the US Senate Banking Committee Elizabeth Warren. “I am sounding the alarm about cryptocurrencies and the need for stricter regulations for consumer protection and financial stability. Too many companies have managed to deceive customers and rub ordinary investors in their face,” said the senator.
Warren's words came against the background of ongoing problems in the crypto industry. For example, Celsius Network suspended the withdrawal of funds “due to extreme market conditions” in June, after which it filed for bankruptcy. It became known about the introduction of limits on the withdrawal of funds by the CoinLoan platform on July 5, and the Vauld platform announced a possible restructuring.

- Assuming the market cycle repeats, the bearish phase of bitcoin will end in the first half of autumn. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the historical data provided by the analysts at Grayscale Investments. It took bitcoin 1,290 and 1,257 days to form a full cycle in 2012 and 2016, respectively. It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016. The duration of the current cycle, which began in 2020, has reached 1206 days (as of July 20, 2022). In other words, it may take another two or three months before the bottom is reached.

- A crypto strategist with the nickname Rekt Capital came to similar conclusions. In his opinion, despite the oversold signals, the downward exchange rate movement may continue for quite a long time. The analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC monthly timeframe is now below the lowest levels of the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, which could become new resistance levels for bitcoin.
According to Rekt Capital, the short-term prospects of the coin do not look very good, and the bottom can be reached only in a few months: “Bitcoin has about 650 days before the next halving (April 2024). Historically, it bottomed around 517-547 days before its halving. In the event of a repeat of history, bitcoin will need another 100-150 days before reaching the bottom, which will form in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

- Analysts at the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange use the 200-week moving average on the bitcoin chart as their main indicator. In particular, they drew attention to the multipliers with which BTC traded in the past relative to its 200-week SMA. Thus, having rebounded from the SMA200, bitcoin grew 15.2 times in December 2017. The growth was 13.2 times in November 2013. At the moment, BTC is trading close to its 200-week moving average. Its current value is about $22,485. If the coin shows a multiplier in the range of 13x - 15x again, it may rise to about $300,000.
Of course, the multiplier for BTC was not always 10x when touching the SMA200. Growth peaked at 5.8x in March 2021 before the crypto market began to decline noticeably. However, even with this value of the multiplier, bitcoin can rise to $130,000.

- The US Federal Bureau of Investigation has warned of a rise in fake applications for investing in cryptocurrencies. It is common for attackers to impersonate legitimate financial institutions in order to gain the trust of potential victims. They then persuade people to install fraudulent mobile apps and deposit money, which they then steal. According to FBI estimates, cybercriminals have recently managed to steal about $43 million in this way.
The Bureau recommended that cryptocurrency owners enable multi-factor authentication for all their accounts, reject requests to install suspicious applications, and verify phone numbers and email addresses on the official websites of companies allegedly acting on behalf of scammers.

- Edward Dowd, a former top manager at Blackrock investment firm, believes that despite the recent turmoil, bitcoin will become an integral part of any investment portfolio. The specialist believes that gold will remain a viable investment, but BTC is more likely to become a store of value. “At least BTC can be sold or exchanged digitally, but it is much more difficult with gold. Although I am not against gold, having a small amount of it is also a good idea,” says Dowd.
As the cryptocurrency industry matures, bitcoin will stand out from the rest of the market, the ex-CEO of Blackrock believes. He compared the cryptocurrency market to the era of the dot-com crisis, when the vast majority of Internet companies closed down, and only stronger competitors managed to survive. Dowd cited the example of Amazon, which is still considered one of the largest technology giants. Last month, Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe also compared the current bearish trend in the cryptocurrency market to the dot-com crisis.

- American businessman Thomas Peterffy, whose capital is estimated at $18.4 billion, is ready to buy bitcoins when the value of the cryptocurrency drops to $12,000. This chairman of Interactive Brokers admitted in a recent interview with Forbes that he already owns digital assets and plans to acquire a few more coins if BTC drops in price. The billionaire does not intend to buy cryptocurrency at the current, high in his opinion, price, as he believes that in the future bitcoin is likely to depreciate or be banned in the United States. Despite the high financial risks associated with buying cryptocurrencies, Peterffy advised investors in January to invest 2-3% of assets in bitcoin in case “money goes to hell.”
Last week, Finder portal experts made a forecast for a decline in the value of bitcoin to $13,676. Analysts doubt that the price will fall below this value, and then Thomas' plan will not come true.

- Despite the fall of the cryptocurrency market, a poll on the social network Weibo with the participation of more than 2,200 people showed that Chinese traders are waiting for further decline in the price of bitcoin. 8% of respondents said they would buy BTC at $18,000 per coin. 26% of respondents will start purchases at $15,000. But if the bitcoin rate falls to $10,000, 40% of respondents will buy the first cryptocurrency.
Recall that trading in cryptocurrencies is prohibited in China. The People's Bank of China reported in March that the volume of BTC transactions in the country decreased by 80%, which indicates the effectiveness of the ban.

- Bitcoin rose above $23,000 as the US dollar weakened. The DXY index, which determines the strength of the USD, finally broke the rally that began on February 24 and rebounded from its twenty-year high at around 109.294 points, registered on July 14. At the time of publication, this drop has reached almost 2.5%.
The maximum price of BTC at the time of publication on 07/20/2022 was $23,911. Thus, bitcoin has grown by 26.6% compared to the low of July 13 ($18.886). This movement could be regarded as a technical rebound; however, the main cryptocurrency has overcome an important psychological level in the form of a 200-week moving average. According to analysts at the Binance crypto exchange, if the bulls manage to close the week above this level, it will be possible to ascertain the restoration of strong support characteristic of bitcoin bearish cycles.

- Bitcoin's break above the 200-week SMA caused a surge of enthusiasm among investors. Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe first tweeted out a graphical forecast anticipating a cryptocurrency rally to $28,000 and then compared the current market situation to the recovery from the memorable collapse triggered by the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. At that time, bitcoin collapsed to $3,782, but then rose by 1.600% over the next 13 months (to $64,853 in April 2021).


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 23, 2022, 11:14:53 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 25 - 29, 2022


EUR/USD: The ECB's Monetary Experiment: Crossing a Hawk with a Dove

(https://i.imgur.com/k0CKxDm.jpg)

The single European currency showed slight growth at the beginning of last week, fixing a local high at 1.0272. There are three reasons for this. The first and most banal one is a corrective rebound after the EUR/USD pair, having broken through the parity level of 1.0000, found the bottom at 0.9951 on July 14. The second one is the resumption of Russian gas supplies to the EU via the Nord Stream pipeline. And finally, the third and most important one is the expectation of a rise in the euro interest rate. Moreover, the market expected that the rate would be raised by 50 basis points (bp) at once, and not by 25, as announced by the ECB itself at its previous meeting. This is what happened in reality. For the first time in 13 years, the European regulator raised the lending rate from 0 to 0.5% on Thursday, July 21, and brought the deposit rate out of the negative zone, raising it from -0.5% to 0%.

The ECB explained in its press release that it felt appropriate to take a larger first step towards rate normalization for two reasons. The first is obvious and consists of an updated assessment of inflation growth. As a second reason, the ECB announced the launch of a new instrument, the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI), which should allow, despite the increase in the rate, not to increase the cost of borrowing too aggressively in the vulnerable economies of the Eurozone. The TPI description explains that this tool was introduced to counter the unreasonable erratic market movements that took place in mid-June.

In short, the essence of TPI is that the ECB will be able to buy back securities issued in those EU countries where there is a destabilization of financial conditions unjustified by fundamental factors, on the secondary market. The volume of purchases is not limited by anything and will depend on the severity of the risks. In other words, the regulator will try to cross a hawk with a dove­: on the one hand, by raising the rate (QT), and on the other hand, by continuing potentially unlimited quantitative easing (QE). The market reaction to this monetary experiment turned out to be appropriate and predictable: the EUR/USD pair fell to 1.0152. After that, it went up again and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.0210.

There will be a meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve next week, on Wednesday, July 27. Almost no one doubts that the key interest rate will be raised there. But how much? By 100 bp, which hasn't happened since 1981, or by 75 bp? If the FOMC chooses the first option, the rate will reach 2.75%. It is this growth that the markets put into their quotes, expecting a new assault on the 1.0000 horizon by the EUR/USD pair. However, if the Fed abandons this idea and the rise is more modest, then a further rebound of the pair to the north is not ruled out.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of July 22, 25% of experts supported the growth of the pair. The remaining 75% showed it the way to the south. The oscillator readings on D1 give a slightly different signal: 60% are colored red, 25% are green and 15% are neutral grey.  As for the trend indicators, 65% look south, the remaining 35% have taken the opposite position. The immediate support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0150-1.0200 zone, then, of course, comes the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the resistance at 1.0270 and return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

As already mentioned, the most important event of the upcoming week will be the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve and its decision on the interest rate. The volume of US orders for capital goods and durable goods will become known on the same day, Wednesday, July 27. Data (CPI) on consumer markets in Germany and the Eurozone will arrive on Thursday, July 28 and Friday, July 29, respectively. The preliminary size of the US GDP (Q2) will be known on July 28, and the GDP of Germany and the Eurozone on July 29.

GBP/USD: The Battle for 1.2000 Continues

Last week was quite busy for the pound as for the publication of important macro-statistics on the UK. And although it turned out to be rather ambiguous, there were distinct positive notes in it, especially where it concerned the labor market. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the country for the month decreased from 34.7K to 20.0K, and this is against the forecast of 41.2K.

Unlike EUR/USD, thanks to such statistics, the GBP/USD pair showed more confident growth and managed to return to where it was trading two and five weeks ago, putting the final chord at around 1.2000. And now the question arises: will this level turn into strong resistance or support?

At the moment, 75% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 25%, on the contrary, expect a rebound upwards. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators, the balance of power is 65-35% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the advantage of the bears is much less: 35% indicate a fall, 25% indicate an increase, the remaining 40% remain neutral. The closest support is located in the 1.1875-1.1915 zone. Below is the level of 1.1800, the low of July 14 of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020 in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100, 1.2160-1.2175, 1.2200-1.2235, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

The macroeconomic calendar does not include major news from the United Kingdom itself. The determining factor for the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair, of course, will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, July 27. Recall that the interest rate on the pound is 1.25% at the moment , and the next meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) is scheduled for August 04, 2022.

USD/JPY: Correction or Trend Change?

What most experts dreamed about for so long has come true. The USD/JPY pair did not renew the 24-year high again, and did not even take a break, but literally collapsed down. And this despite the fact that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) once again left the interest rate unchanged at a negative level of -0.1% on Thursday, July 21. The management of the regulator did not even hint of tightening monetary policy. On the contrary, it was stated that the Japanese Central Bank will not hesitate to take additional easing measures (QE) if necessary, and also expects short-term and long-term interest rates to remain at the current or even lower (!) levels.

Although inflation in Japan tends to rise, it is still below 2%, which is many times lower than in the US and Europe. Thus, given the dynamics of domestic demand and weak wage growth, there is still little incentive for the BOJ to change its ultra-dove tack. So the current strengthening of the yen and the fall of the pair USD/JPY from 139.38 to 135.56 is due, with a high degree of probability, to its being strong overbought.

This time, 70% of experts are waiting for a new push of the pair to the height of 142.00. 15% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 15% speak of a side corridor. The picture is vaguer in the readings of indicators on D1: trend indicators have a parity of 50% to 50%, 25% of oscillators look to the north, 40% to the south and 35% to the east. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 135.55, 134.75, 134.00, 133.50, 133.00 and 131.40. Resistances are 136.35-137.00, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-1.139.00, followed by the July 14 high at 139.38 and round bull targets­ of 140.00 and 142.00.

No major events are expected in Japan this week. Of course, we can note the publication on Monday, July 26 of the report on the latest meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan, however, it is unlikely that it will cause not only a tsunami, but even a small wave in the market. So the focus of attention, as for other currency pairs, will be on the meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, July 27.   

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Little Patience, Ladies and Gentlemen!

For the first time since June 13, BTC/USD rose above $23,000 and even hit $24,263 last week. What is this, a long-awaited change in trend? Or a brief thaw in the middle of a crypto winter? Or maybe another insidious trap arranged by bears for gullible investors? Let's figure it out.

We have repeatedly written that a popular marker among crypto-analysts is the 200-week moving average (SMA200), which has been referred to more and more often lately. The reason is that it used to be the main support for the BTC/USD pair. But it is not at all certain that what happened before will be repeated in the future. And the proof of this is the recent breakdown of this very SMA200. However, this technical analysis indicator is still one of the most used in making forecasts.

So, bitcoin managed to rise above the 200-week moving average last week. The reason for this, of course, is not that the flagship cryptocurrency has become stronger, but that the US dollar has weakened a little. Against this background, the US stock indices, S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq went up, and after them the quotes of such risky assets as cryptocurrencies followed.

At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, July 22), bitcoin is trading around $22,670. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.026 trillion ($0.945 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 15 to 33 points in a week, and finally got out of the Extreme Fear zone into the Fear zone.

Thus, bitcoin is up about 20% from the July 13 low ($18.886) and is just above the 200-week moving average ($22.565). According to analysts at the Binance crypto exchange, such a close of the week gives hope for the restoration of strong support in the form of SMA200, which is typical for bitcoin bear cycles.

Bitcoin’s break above the 200-week SMA caused a surge of enthusiasm among investors. Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe first tweeted out a graphical forecast anticipating a cryptocurrency rally to $28,000 and then compared the current market situation to the recovery from the memorable collapse triggered by the announcement of the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020. At that time, bitcoin collapsed to $3,782, but then rose by 1.600% over the next 13 months (to $64,853 in April 2021).

Analysts of the Kraken cryptocurrency exchange are equally optimistic, who also use the 200-week moving average as the main indicator. In particular, they drew attention to the multipliers with which BTC traded in the past relative to its 200-week SMA. Thus, having rebounded from the SMA200, bitcoin grew 15.2 times in December 2017. The growth was 13.2 times in November 2013. At the moment, BTC is trading close to its 200-week moving average. If the coin shows a multiplier in the range of 13x - 15x again, it may rise to about $300,000.

Of course, the multiplier for BTC was not always 10x when touching the SMA200. Growth peaked at 5.8x in March 2021 before the crypto market began to decline noticeably. However, even with this value of the multiplier, bitcoin can rise to $130,000. But when will this happen? The patience of many market participants has already run out.

We have already written that, according to Glassnode data, bitcoin's record price decline in June almost took the rest of the “market tourists” out of the game, leaving only hodlers “at the front”. In the context of monthly dynamics, the situation was worse only in 2011. The largest outflow was recorded among institutional investors (companies with investments from $1 million), public miners (expanding production on credit), as well as speculators and casual players.

Assuming the market cycle repeats, the bearish phase of bitcoin will end in the first half of autumn. Such a conclusion can be drawn from the historical data provided by the analysts at Grayscale Investments. It took bitcoin 1,290 and 1,257 days to form a full cycle in 2012 and 2016, respectively. It took 391 and 364 days to fall from the peak by 73% in 2012 and by 84% in 2016. The duration of the current cycle, which began in 2020, has reached 1206 days (as of July 20, 2022). In other words, it may take another two to three months before reaching the bottom.

A crypto strategist with the nickname Rekt Capital came to similar conclusions. In his opinion, despite the oversold signals, the downward exchange rate movement may continue for quite a long time. The analyst noted that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the BTC monthly timeframe is now below the lowest levels of the bear markets of 2015 and 2018, which could become new resistance levels for bitcoin.

According to Rekt Capital, the short-term prospects of the coin do not look very good, and the bottom can be reached only in a few months: “Bitcoin has about 650 days before the next halving (April 2024). Historically, it bottomed around 517-547 days before its halving. In the event of a repeat of history, bitcoin will need another 100-150 days before reaching the bottom, which will form in the fourth quarter of 2022.”

American businessman Thomas Peterffy, whose capital is estimated at $18.4 billion, is ready to buy bitcoins when the value of the cryptocurrency drops to $12,000. This chairman of Interactive Brokers admitted in a recent interview with Forbes that he does not intend to buy cryptocurrency at the current, in his opinion, high price, as he believes that in the future, bitcoin is very likely to depreciate or be banned in the United States.

Most traders from China are in solidarity with Thomas Peterffi. A poll on the social network Weibo with the participation of more than 2,200 people showed that Chinese traders are waiting for further decline in the price of bitcoin. 8% of respondents said they would buy BTC at $18,000 per coin. 26% of respondents will start purchases at $15,000. But if the bitcoin rate falls to $10,000, 40% of respondents will buy the first cryptocurrency.

It can be seen from all of the above that, despite the prospects for BTC to rise to the cosmic $300,000, there are no clear signals for investing in this coin yet. The US Federal Reserve will make a decision on the interest rate on Wednesday, July 27. And, most likely, the prospects for the BTC/USD pair will become more distinct after that. A sharp increase in the rate will lead to an increase in the DXY dollar index and a further drop in investor risk appetite. And then the chances of seeing bitcoin at $10,000 will increase dramatically. Otherwise, we'll see it aim for $30,000. It won't take long to find out which of these scenarios will come true. So, dear traders and investors, let's be patient.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 27, 2022, 04:49:13 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/T0rDtjz.jpg)

- The number of attacks using ransomware has significantly decreased against the backdrop of the fall in the price of bitcoin, experts from the American company SonicWall noted. Researchers counted 236 million ransomware infection attempts in the first half of 2022. This is 23% less compared to the same period last year. According to the report, the number of ransomware incidents peaked in 2021. The targets of the attackers then were large companies that were forced to pay large amounts of cryptocurrency to hackers.

- The price of bitcoin bounced up from the $20,000 level, which concentrated the greatest attraction of speculators. This happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to "new" optimistic buyers. Glassnode experts emphasize that there was also demand from speculators earlier at the $30,000 and $40,000 levels.
Glassnode warns that it may take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by such long-term indicators as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- Peter Brandt, the head of Factor LLC, trader with 45 years of experience, criticized MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor, who called bitcoin an ensured digital commodity. “It is ensured with energy only because of its excessive consumption, without ensuring an economic function. It's a huge myth that bitcoin is somehow more than just a consumer of energy,” Brandt wrote.
In response, Saylor emphasized that "all products consume energy." According to him, the economic function of bitcoin is to create a free global settlement network. "Since bitcoin is a commodity, it can fulfill the role of global digital money. The economic function is to grant property rights to 8 billion people, as well as to create a global settlement network that has already transferred $17 trillion of value in 2022,” he wrote.
Note that despite the criticisms of bitcoin, this cryptocurrency is one of the largest assets in the portfolio of Peter Brandt.

- Bitcoin continues to resist selling pressure and managed to stabilize above the $20,000 level on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting. According to a number of analysts, the main role in this was played by the whales (investors with a balance of 1000+ and 10000+ BTC), who maintain hodle sentiment and continue to buy bitcoin on exchange rate drawdowns.
It is worth noting the activity of the owners of small BTC balances. For example, the number of addresses with a balance of 0.01+ BTC has reached an all-time high of 10,543,548.

- A well-known analyst named PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, predicted the day when both US stocks and bitcoin reach new all-time highs. “Some people are afraid of macroeconomics, bitcoin's relationship with the stock market, etc.,” he tweeted. “My opinion is that the S&P 500 will be in the range of $5,000-$6,000 over the next 5 years, and bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $1 million.

- Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, said that the adoption of cryptocurrencies is currently best in Latin America, and has huge prospects. The potential is estimated at $128 billion. Digital currencies will be used in various areas of life, primarily as a means of payment.

- Analysts from Forex Suggest analyzed different countries and regions in terms of parameters characterizing the availability of cryptocurrencies for citizens. Several parameters were evaluated: the number and availability of crypto ATMs, regulation of cryptocurrencies at the state level, startup culture, and taxation.
Hong Kong came in first with 8.6 points, ahead of the US and Switzerland with 7.7 and 7.5 points respectively. These two countries have a better cryptocurrency infrastructure and more ATMs per 100,000 people (in the US - 10, Switzerland - 6.5, in Hong Kong - only 2), but Hong Kong won in the availability of these devices for the population due to its compactness.
Low taxes on cryptocurrency income are also important. Hong Kong, Switzerland, Panama, Portugal, Germany, Malaysia and Turkey win here. But the number of requests for cryptocurrencies in search engines is the highest in Australia (4,579 requests per 100,000 population). Ireland and the UK are in second and third place.

- Jim Rogers, a major American investor, co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management, said that it will be necessary to enlist government support for this sector before considering cryptocurrency a reliable investment. BTC is only a gambling tool, not real money. Bitcoin is well suited for speculation but will eventually fail as a currency.
The specialist stressed that he will consider buying BTC if the European Union accepts it as an official currency and introduces it into the region's payment system. However, he will not buy cryptocurrencies at the moment, regardless of the prices at which they can be traded. Recall that Jim Rogers predicted in 2020 that the price of the main cryptocurrency will eventually fall to zero.

- Hollywood producer Ryan Felton pleaded guilty to receiving $2.4 million through a cryptocurrency scam. This is stated in the US Department of Justice press release. He raised the money through an initial coin offering for a streaming platform FLiK. The producer said that the company has the potential to bypass Netflix. In addition, the team behind the platform which was introduced to the market at the height of the 2017 ICO boom, claimed to be entering into licensing agreements with major film and television studios. In addition, Felton promoted another ICO in 2018: the CoinSpark crypto exchange, promising investors a 25% profit in the form of dividends.
As a result, the investors' funds were transferred to Felton's accounts and cashed out. he used them to buy a house for $1.5 million, a Ferrari for $180,000, a Chevrolet Tahoe SUV for $58,250, and jewelry for $30,000.

- British IT engineer James Howells became famous all over the world for admitting that he lost his hard drive in 2013, which contained a wallet with 7,500 BTC. This loser threw a disk from an old computer that he used for mining back in 2009 in a landfill. The poor man did not follow the news and did not know that these bitcoins were worth about a million dollars even at that time.
Almost 10 years have passed since then, but he is still trying to find the loss. James Howels has repeatedly requested the Newport City Administration to organize a massive search for the HDD over the past few years. Officials refused him time after time, citing inevitable environmental problems and a trivial stench throughout the city when digging up the entire territory of the landfill. In 2021, the treasure hunter offered the city authorities 25% of the value of his BTC (about $72 million at that time), but this did not help either.
Now, disillusioned with people, Howels decided to bet on robots. He will order two search robots-dogs of the Spot type worth $75,000 each from the American Boston Dynamics. Iron friends will be nicknamed Satoshi and Hal in honor of the creator of bitcoin and the cryptographer who received the first transaction. It remains a mystery how robot dogs with cameras or even metal detectors will be able to find a laptop HDD in a giant garbage field, already deep under the surface. And what happened to the disc after nine years of lying in a landfill? The magnetic recording is most likely damaged, although there is still a chance to recover information on specialized equipment.

- Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that an unexpected rise in the market is likely, which will be a big surprise for the bears. “Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 to $53,000 last July, up 80% within a month. I suppose that the market can grow up again now and retest the previous consolidation area around $30,000. There are no major resistance zones ahead and the moving averages are leading right into this point, giving bitcoin a great upside opportunity. Most people do not believe in this possibility, but the rally can surprise you with its scale in a market with excessive volumes of derivatives.”
Note that although Merten does not exclude BTC growth in the short term, he doubts that the asset will reach the bottom: “Many believe that the bottom was reached on June 18. Yes, we saw a huge sell-off and a good rebound. The market also got rid of significant amounts of borrowed funds used for crypto speculation. But one cannot discount the reality of the continued impact of the macro market, which will continue to limit long-term investment in cryptocurrencies.”

- The next big rise in cryptocurrency prices will occur before the next halving in the bitcoin network, which is scheduled for May 2024. This is the opinion of financial analyst Florian Grummes, Managing Director of the investment company Midas Touch Consulting. In his opinion, despite the recent minor recovery, the cryptocurrency winter is far from over. The rise to $35,000 will occur in 6-12 months. This will be a so-called "auxiliary rally" that may precede a larger rally.
In the long term, Grummes is confidently optimistic, but warns that since the crypto market is directly correlated with the stock market, one must be prepared for deviations not only upwards, but also downwards at the current stage.
This expert predicted BTC to rise to $100,000 in the 1st quarter of 2022 in the past, which did not happen. Therefore, his forecasts, as well as all other ones, should be treated with sufficient caution now as well.

- Raoul Pal, co-founder of Real Vision Group and former CEO of Goldman Sachs, believes that cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a serious positive trend reversal. The markets are mainly driven by liquidity, which comes from the M2 money supply, he said. This money supply correlates with the total amount of currency in circulation, plus it is highly liquid non-cash assets that can be easily converted into cash.
Most crypto investors believe that miner rewards at the next halving will drive up the price. However, Pal argues that the role of M2 is greater than that of halving: “Cryptocurrency is not driven by the business cycle, but by global liquidity. So the main indicator of the growth of bitcoin is the rate of change of M2. Every time there was an increase in the money supply, there was always a reversal, the specialist says.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 31, 2022, 03:10:07 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 01-05, 2022


EUR/USD: FOMC Meeting Results: Why the Dollar Is Falling and Stocks Are Rising

So, the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve took place on Wednesday, July 27. There were no doubts that the key interest rate would be raised. But how much? By 100 basis points (bp), which has not happened since 1981, or by 75? It seems that the markets were counting on the first option, but the Fed went for the second, softer one. As a result, instead of a new assault on the 1.0000 horizon by the EUR/USD pair, it went up and returned to the 1.0150-1.0270 channel, where it had been moving since July 19. This was followed by an unsuccessful attempt by the bears to break through the lower border of the channel (the reasons are explained below, in the review for the GBP/USD pair) and the finish, which took place at the level of 1.0221.

Speaking at the end of the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to convince everyone that the regulator is still hawkish. He stated that he does not believe in a recession as the labor market and some sectors are still strong. And that the risk of continued high inflation is more significant than the risk of a recession. And that, if necessary, the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes.

However, the markets did not believe Powell and reacted to the results of the FOMC meeting with a turn towards the stock market. The DXY dollar index fell by 0.7%, but stock indices went up: S&P500 rose by 2.6%, Dow Jones - by 1.4%, NASDAQ - by 4.1%. Oil futures also increased by 3.4%.

It was previously predicted that as a result of monetary restriction, the key rate could reach 3.4% by the end of this year, and it could rise even higher to 3.8% by the end of 2023. Rumors have spread around the market now that the US Central Bank may completely stop raising rates in November, and it will return to the quantitative easing (QE) program in 2023. The main reason is that fighting inflation by raising rates and reducing the budget deficit, despite Powell's soothing assurances, has a negative impact on GDP. And this, in turn, can lead to a deterioration in the situation on the labor market.

What has just been said was confirmed by the macro statistics released on Thursday, July 28. The preliminary estimate of US GDP for the Q2 2022 was minus 0.9% against forecasts from +0.3% to +0.5%.

Thus, the decline in GDP plays against the dollar, as it may push the Fed to a more careful rate hike, much less than its 75 bp increase. at every meeting. According to the FedWatch tool from CME Group, the probability that the regulator will raise the discount rate by only 50 bp in September is almost 80%. The steady decline in the yield of ten-year US government bonds is also playing against the American currency: it fell from 3.4% to 2.68% in just a month. This gives market participants reason to think that inflation is under control and the program of quantitative tightening (QT) can be completed ahead of schedule.

On the other hand, things are not going smoothly in Europe either. Ongoing problems and interruptions in the supply of natural energy resources from Russia are playing against the euro. In response to energy blackmail from the Kremlin, the head of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen called on the EU countries to prepare for a complete cessation of Russian gas supplies. In her opinion, it is necessary to save resources even in those countries where dependence on Russian energy carriers is small in order to avoid a full-scale collapse.

Klaus Müller, head of Germany's energy regulator (Bundesnetzagentur), believes that the threat of gas shortages will hang over the country for the next two winters, and electricity prices will rise again in August.

Speaking of the Eurozone, it should be noted that the economic data published on Friday, July 29, do not look so intimidating. On the one hand, inflation continues to grow: the consumer price index (CPI), with the previous value of 8.6% and the same forecast, rose actually to 8.9% in July. On the other hand, GDP (y/y, Q2) of the Eurozone, fell to 4.0% instead of the expected fall from 5.4% to 3.4%. The situation with the labor market in Germany also looks good, the number of unemployed fell from 132K to 48K over the month.

As for the near future of the EUR/USD pair, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of July 29, 45% of experts supported its growth, 45% showed it the way to the south and 10% to the east. Indicator readings on D1 do not give definite signals either. As for trend indicators, 50% look south, 50% look north. Oscillators have 35% on the side of the bears, 65% side with the bulls, of which 25% signal the pair is overbought.

With the exception of 1.0200, the closest support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.0150-1.0180 zone, then 1.0100 and, of course, the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone of 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the resistance at 1.0250-1.0270 and return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

Upcoming events include the publication of business activity indices (ISM) in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the United States on Monday, August 01. The volume of retail sales in Germany will become known the same day. Data on retail sales in the Eurozone, as well as on business activity (ISM) in the US services sector, will be published on Wednesday, August 3. Ф portion of data from the US labor market will arrive at the very end of the working week, on Friday, August 05, including the unemployment rate and such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector.

GBP/USD: BOE Decision Threatens to Become a Sensation

Cautious decisions by the Fed, careful comments by Jerome Powell and disappointing Q2 US economic growth data fueled the GBP/USD rally last week. As a result, the bulls managed to raise the pair to a monthly high of 1.2245 on July 29. The pair briefly went south to 1.2062 in the afternoon of the same day. The dollar was strengthened by the data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index in the USA. The growth of this inflation indicator in monthly terms amounted to 0.6% (twice higher than the previous value of 0.3% and higher than the forecast of 0.5%). This influenced market sentiment and helped the US currency to start recovering. In addition, July 29 is the last working day of the month, and many investors decided to take profits after the growth of the pound. However, the growth of the dollar did not last long and the last chord of the week sounded at 1.2176.

As for macroeconomic news coming from the United Kingdom next week, we can note the publication of the composite PMI index and the index of business activity in the UK services sector on Wednesday August 3. But the main event of the week will certainly be the meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday August 4.

This regulator raised the interest rate from 1.00% to 1.25% at its previous meeting on June 16. It would seem that 25 basis points is only a third of the 75 bps by which the Fed raises the rate, but the pound then flew up sharply. The British currency strengthened by 365 points in just a few hours and the GBP/USD pair fixed a local high at 1.2405.

Let's see what happens this time and if it can return to this height. Or is it likely to exceed it? After all, according to forecasts, the BOE may decide to take a desperate step, raising the rate by 150 bps at once, in which case it will be 2.75% and will be higher than the current dollar rate of 2.50%, which will be a significant argument in favor of strengthening the British currency.

At the moment, 35% of experts believe that the British currency will continue to lose ground, 35% on the contrary expect a rebound upwards, and 30% remain neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among trend indicators, the parity is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, only 10% side with the bears, 90% indicate growth, of which 15% are in the overbought zone.

Immediate support is at 1.2045, followed by 1.2000 and 1.1875-1.1915 zone. Below is the level of 1.1800, the July 14 low of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020 in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2200-1.2245, 1.2300-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

USD/JPY: Record 500 Pips Down

(https://i.imgur.com/EgAMgUe.jpg)

All the same reasons mentioned above contributed to the strengthening of the Japanese currency. On the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on July 27, the USD/JPY pair was at a height of 137.45, and having flown by almost 500 points, it already fixed a six-week low at around 132.49 less than two days later. It is possible that such a sharp drop was facilitated by the oversold yen, which updated a 24-year low on July 14.

The publication of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures followed at the very end of the week, on Friday, July 29, causing a temporary rebound of the USD/JPY pair to the height of 134.58, after which the downtrend resumed, and the pair completed the five-day working period at 133.31.

As for the prospects of the Japanese currency, the experts' forecast looks quite neutral, as in the cases of previous pairs. 45% of them are waiting for a new breakthrough of the pair to the north, another 45% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 10% talk about a side corridor. The picture is somewhat different in the readings of indicators on D1: trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of red ones, 25% of oscillators look north, 75% look south, but a third of them give signals that the pair is oversold.

The values of possible slippage and ranges of support/resistance zones have sharply increased due to the ultra-high volatility of the pair. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 132.50-133.00, 131.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 134.20-134.60, 135.00-135.55, 136.30-137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, followed by July 14 high 139.38 and round bull targets­ of 140.00 and 142.00.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin May Rise. But not soon.

The fact that the US Federal Reserve raised the rate not by 1.0%, but by 0.75% at its meeting on July 27 provided strong support for risky assets, primarily the stock market. Some of the most radical analysts said that the regulator might stop raising rates as early as November, and it would return to the quantitative easing (QE) program in 2023 and start buying assets and building up the balance sheet again, flooding the market with new flows of cheap dollars. The S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices went further up on such joyful expectations for investors, and the quotes of such risky assets as bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies followed them.

The price of bitcoin has been holding above the $20,000 level for two weeks now, which has concentrated the greatest attraction of speculators. According to Glassnode experts, this happened as a result of the transfer of coins from surrendered hodlers to "new" optimistic buyers. The specialists emphasize that there was also demand from speculators earlier at the levels of $30,000 and $40,000.

According to a number of analysts, those whales (investors with a balance of 1000+ and 10000+ BTC) who maintain hodle moods and continue to buy bitcoins on exchange rate drawdowns, also contributed to this. The activity of owners of small BTC balances is also noted. For example, the number of addresses with a balance of 0.01+ BTC reached an all-time high of 10,543,548.

Glassnode warns that it may take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by such long-term indicators as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten believes that an unexpected market jump is possible in the current situation, which will be a big surprise for the bears. “Bitcoin skyrocketed from $29,000 to $53,000 last July, up 80% within a month. I suppose that the market can grow up again now and retest the previous consolidation area around $30,000. There are no major resistance zones ahead and the moving averages are leading right into this point, giving bitcoin a great upside opportunity. Most people do not believe in this possibility, but the rally can surprise you with its scale in a market with excessive volumes of derivatives.”

Note that although Merten does not rule out BTC rising in the short term, he doubts that the asset has already hit the bottom: “Many people believe that the bottom was reached on June 18. Yes, we saw a huge sell-off and a good rebound. The market also got rid of significant amounts of borrowed funds used for crypto speculation. But one cannot discount the reality of the continued impact of the macro market, which will continue to limit long-term investment in cryptocurrencies.”

A similar thought was expressed by analyst Aaron Chomsky. He believes that the exit of the BTC/USD pair from the side channel through the upper border can only become a trigger for a further fall in prices. He expects a reversal and a breakdown of the lower border of the channel with the target of $17,500. At the same time, Aaron Chomsky believes that the goal of $10,000 is also quite realistic. “Apparently, we are in for a long period of crypto winter,” the expert writes. “Bitcoin is targeting $5-7k, while any delay, like what we are seeing now, forces us to revise the final targets down.”

And the “lower side,” according to Jim Rogers, co-founder of Quantum Fund and Soros Fund Management, could be a drop in the price of bitcoin to zero. This major American investor said that you need to get the support of governments regarding this sector before considering cryptocurrency as a safe investment. BTC is only a gambling tool, not real money. Bitcoin is well suited for speculation but will eventually fail as a currency.

Jim Rogers emphasized that he would consider buying BTC if the European Union accepted it as the official currency and introduced it into the region's payment system. However, his statement can only be taken as a sarcastic joke, since the EU is unlikely to take such a step in the next decade.

Of course, in contrast to the skeptics who are ready to bury the crypto market, there are always optimists who predict a bright future for bitcoin. For example, Real Vision Group co-founder and former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal believes that the cryptocurrency markets are preparing for a major positive trend reversal. The markets are mainly driven by liquidity, which comes from the M2 money supply, he said. This money supply correlates with the total amount of currency in circulation, plus it is highly liquid non-cash assets that can be easily converted into cash.

Most crypto investors believe that miner reward cuts at the next halving, which is scheduled for May 2024, will drive the price up. However, Pal argues that the role of M2 is greater than that of halving: “Cryptocurrency is not driven by the business cycle, but by global liquidity. So the main indicator of the growth of bitcoin is the rate of change of M2. Every time there was an increase in the money supply, there was always a reversal, the specialist says.

It is appropriate to recall what we talked about at the very beginning of the review. If the Fed actually returns from quantitative tightening (QT) to quantitative easing (QE), and there is extra money in the market, investor appetite for risky assets will definitely go up.

Raoul Pal is also right that many investors expect the next big rise in cryptocurrency prices to occur before the next halving. Moreover, such expectations are based on quite convincing historical data. One of the proponents of this scenario is financial analyst Florian Grummes, managing director of investment firm Midas Touch Consulting. In his opinion, despite the current rise, the cryptocurrency winter is far from over. The rise to $35,000, in his opinion, will occur only in 6-12 months. And this will be a so-called "auxiliary rally" that may precede larger rally in the future.

In the long term, Grummes is confidently optimistic, but warns that since the crypto market is directly correlated with the stock market, one must be prepared for deviations not only upwards, but also downwards at the current stage.

The biggest optimist last week was the well- known analyst under the nickname PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model. He predicted the day when both US stocks and bitcoin would reach new all-time highs. “Some people are afraid of macroeconomics, bitcoin's relationship with the stock market, etc.,” he tweeted. “My opinion is that the S&P 500 will be in the range of $5,000-$6,000 over the next 5 years, and bitcoin will be between $100,000 and $1 million.

The prospects are wonderful of course. But both PlanB and Florian Grummes have already been wrong in their predictions. Therefore, their forecasts, as well as all other ones, should be treated with sufficient caution now as well. The only thing that persists is that at the time of writing this review (Friday evening July 28), bitcoin is trading around $23,900. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.098 trillion ($1.026 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the Fear zone at 39 points (33 points a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 03, 2022, 07:39:58 AM
July 2022: TOP 3 NordFX Traders Earn Over $105,000

(https://i.imgur.com/ObD51zR.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in July 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

The maximum profit in July was received by a client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1627XXX. This trader managed to earn 47,976 USD on transactions on the GBP/JPY currency pair.

The second line in the rating of the most successful traders was taken by his compatriot, account No. 1633XXX, who earned 31,652 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to trades in gold (XAU/USD).

The third step on the July podium also went to the representative of Southeast Asia (Account No. 1397XXX), whose result was 25,652 USD. In addition to transactions with bitcoin (BTC/USD) and gold (XAU/USD), transactions with ethereum (ETH/USD) appeared in the TOP-3 for the first time.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

In CopyTrading, the “veteran” signal KennyFXPRO once again attracts attention: Journey of $205 to $5,000, which has shown a profit of 374% for the period from March 2021 with a maximum drawdown of about 67%. At the same time, it should be noted that this drawdown occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021, and the trader had to raise the leverage to 1:337 to get out of it. After that, nothing similar was observed, and the leverage has not exceeded 1:40.

If you decide to subscribe to this signal, we strongly advise you to read the recommendations given in the description by its author. It contains a lot of interesting information and gives an explanation of the name of the signal "of $205 to $5,000".

Other signals from this provider include KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K (the profit on it has been 178% for 453 days of its life with a drawdown of a little more than 45%, which happened at the same time, in October 2021). And the third signal of the same author, KennyFXPRO - The Cannon Ball appeared on the CopyTrading showcase 121 days ago, the profit on it is moderate, about 33%, but the drawdown is less than 7%.

It is for the second month in a row that we also mark the BSTAR signal in the CopyTrading service (profit 48% / max. drawdown 14% / days of life 163). As for startups, there have been quite a few of them lately. We note only one: PT_Bot Scalping (26%/3%/29).

The TOP-3 in thePAMM service has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO . The capital on on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 127% in 552 days. The top three also includes: the account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3, which showed a profit of 96% in 483 days, and the account NKFX-Ninja 136 , which has brought in an income of 82% since June 11, 2021. All these three signals have a very moderate maximum drawdown of about 21%. There is another interesting account, COEX.Investment - Treis, with a profit of 47% for 272 days with a drawdown of less than 20%.

The commissions of TOP 3 NordFX IB Partners in July were as follows:
- the largest commission, 10,388 USD, was credited to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No.1371ХXХ;
- next is the partner from South Asia, account No. 1507XXX, who received 8,953 USD;
- and, finally, another partner from Southeast Asia closes the TOP-3, account No. 1630ХХХ, which received 4,057 USD as a reward.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 03, 2022, 11:03:54 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/LRP8fOL.jpg)

- The increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth of net inflow to stablecoins signal a bullish momentum in the market. This conclusion was made by analysts of Bank of America. They noted the “easing of pressure from sellers” with the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. The experts pointed to the stability of the trend despite the Fed's increase in the key rate by 0.75% at once.
Bank of America estimated the amount of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%.

- If bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. This is stated in the latest report from Arcane Research. A series of rising local lows has been forming on the chart since July. But “if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.”
The company emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. “Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,” the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue.

- On the contrary, Glassnode has doubted the continuation of bitcoin's recovery rally. The rise in prices of BTC and ethereum in recent days is not accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.
The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.
There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

- North Korean hackers plagiarize online resumes from legitimate LinkedIn and Indeed profiles to get remote jobs at US cryptocurrency companies. This is reported by Bloomberg with reference to security specialists from Mandiant Inc. As a rule, North Koreans communicate actively on the profile site GitHub, pretending to be from other countries, ascribe to themselves specialization in the technology industry and extensive experience in software development. After getting a job, they are engaged in theft and laundering of illegally obtained digital assets. Naturally, the DPRK government denies any involvement in such crimes.

- The crypto analyst aka Dave the Wave, who correctly predicted the collapse of the crypto market in May 2021, is now talking about the approach of a bullish rally. The basis for this, according to him, are the signals of the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicator, which was accurate to indicate the 300% BTC rally in 2019.
Dave the Wave noted that many traders are currently concerned about the uncertainty that is caused by macro-economic factors. However, in his opinion, these factors may not have such a strong impact on bitcoin as the market thinks. “Despite macro factors, BTC is doing its job,” the analyst said optimistically.

- According to Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, the current structure of the bitcoin market indicates a bottoming out process. “I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,” the investor said. “But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. […] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.”
Yusko agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is in the “spring” part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next “summer” bull run, which should occur shortly before the next halving (2024): “In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun. If we look at the last two cycles, we see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.”
The head of Morgan Creek also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000.
Recall that Yusko said last year that the price of the asset could soar to $250,000 by 2026. He also suggested that the market cap of BTC will be equal to the market cap of gold, as this digital asset has become a “perfect store of value” and is on its way to replacing the precious metal.

- Crypto trader and investor Bob Loukas agrees that halvings are driving market trends. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, in his opinion, could plunge into a “true crypto winter” in 2026.
According to the Bob Lucas model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. “In theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows. Although, it’s hard to believe,” the investor said.
Recall that halving is a two-fold reduction in the reward to miners for a mined block in the blockchain embedded in the bitcoin code. Initially, miners received 50 BTC, this amount decreased to 25 BTC on November 28, 2012, to 12.5 BTC on July 9, 2016, to 6.25 BTC on May 11, 2020. The next reward cut to 3.125 BTC is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000.

- According to the results of July, receipts in cryptocurrency investment products amounted to $474 million (the maximum since the beginning of the year), $81 million for the week from July 23 to July 29. The influx continued for the fifth week in a row. Such data is provided by CoinShares experts. On the other hand, trading activity remains low. The volume of transactions with crypto products at the end of the last reporting week amounted to $1.3 billion, which is almost half the average since the beginning of the year ($2.4 billion).

- Jurrien Timmer, a macroeconomist at one of the largest American holding companies Fidelity, said that bitcoin and ethereum are comparable in terms of their market share and level of dominance in crypto industry with such a tech giant as Apple. “According to Metcalfe's law, the larger an ecosystem becomes, the more its value grows exponentially. Apple is an example. [...] The more iPhones and other devices it sells, the more exponentially it grows. And it grows until it becomes so powerful that a giant abyss forms around it, which cannot be overcome even if something much better than the iPhone is invented tomorrow,” the expert is sure.
Trimmer believes that other crypto projects will continue to compete with the two leading digital assets, but will not be able to win against the giant ecosystems of BTC and ETH.

- Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead believes the digital asset market has nearly bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. “I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,” said the CEO of Pantera Capital.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 07, 2022, 05:58:54 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 08 - 12, 2022


EUR/USD: Unexpected Positive News from the US

EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for almost three weeks. Timid attempts to break through the upper or lower border of the channel have ended in failure each time. Could it be the summer holiday season to blame? Most likely, the reason is the unexpected economic statistics from the US and the vague prospects that have caused the market confusion.

The US Manufacturing Business Activity Index (ISM) published on Monday, August 01 turned out unexpectedly to be higher than the forecast, 52.8 against 52.0. The index of business activity in the services sector from Markit, which became known on Wednesday, August 03, showed an increase to 47.3 against 47.0 points. The same indicator, but from the US official departments (ISM) also showed an increase to 56.7 points (55.3 a month ago, forecast 53.5). Does it turn out that not everything is so bad in the US economy, it has a serious margin of safety, even despite high energy prices and an aggressive rate hike by the Fed?

Recall that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve took place on July 27, at which the key interest rate was raised by another 75 basis points (bp). Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking at the end of the meeting, tried to convince everyone that the regulator still retains a hawkish attitude. And that the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of interest rate hikes if necessary. However, the markets did not believe Powell and reacted to the results of the FOMC meeting with a turn towards the stock market.

Some experts do not rule out that the peak of inflation in the US has already passed. The main driver of its growth was high energy prices as noted above. However, the Core Consumer Price Index, although it is at high levels, has already decreased by 0.6% since March.

The labor market is also doing well. Unemployment in the US has been holding at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even less in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs outside the US agricultural sector, which was published on Friday, August 5, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier.

Jerome Powell said that he did not believe in a recession, as the labor market and a number of sectors of the economy are quite strong. And that the risk of continued high inflation is more significant than the risk of a recession. However, if inflation goes down, and the country's GDP does not show convincing positive dynamics, the scale may tilt towards easing the Fed's monetary policy. It was previously predicted that the key rate could reach 3.4% as a result of monetary restriction, by the end of this year, and rise even higher, up to 3.8% by the end of 2023. The market is currently preparing for the fact that the FOMC may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by only 0.50% in September, it will stop raising rates altogether in November, and it will return to the quantitative easing (QE) program altogether in 2023.

While the economic situation in the US looks better than expected, according to the latest data, it has definitely worsened in Europe. Retail sales in Germany fell to minus 8.8% on an annualized basis, while they showed an increase to +1.1% a month ago. On the whole, the picture in the Eurozone is just as gloomy: the same indicator fell from +0.4% to -3.7% (against the forecast of -1.7%). This is due to the fact that the population lacks an understanding of what awaits them in the near future. People are afraid of further price increases, primarily because of problems with the supply of energy from Russia. And the possibility of an escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict into the EU does not inspire optimism. There is no need to talk about the fear of Russia's use of nuclear weapons.

After the publication of positive data from the US labor market on Friday, August 05, the dollar strengthened somewhat, and the EUR/USD pair closed the five-day period at 1.0180.  Like a week ago, 45% of experts vote for the fact that it will still break through the lower border of the channel 1.0100-1.0270, 45% show it the way to the north and 10% - further to the east. As for the oscillators on D1, 25% side with the bears, 60% side with the bulls, and 15% have taken a neutral position. The signals are clearer among trend indicators: 90% look south and only 10% look north.

The nearest support for the EUR/USD pair is the 1.01500 zone, then 1.0100-1.0120, then, of course, there is the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone. 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task for the bulls will be to break through the 1.0200 resistance, after which they need to rise to the 1.0250-1.0270 zone. The next target is a return to the 1.0400-1.0450 zone, followed by the 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750 zones.

As for the forthcoming events, the publication of data on the US consumer market (CPI) on Wednesday, August 10 should be noted. This package will be supplemented on Thursday and Friday: August 11 - Producer Price Index (PPI) and August 12 - Consumer Confidence Index of the University of Michigan in the USA. As for the news from Europe, the value of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index in Germany will become known on August 10.

GBP/USD: Bank of England: No Sensation Happened

The main event of the week could have certainly been the meeting of the Bank of England (BOE) on Thursday August 04. It could have been, but it wasn't. Some investors had hoped that the regulator would take a desperate step and raise the rate by 150 bp at once. In this case, it would overtake the current dollar rate (2.50%), which would be a weighty argument in favor of strengthening the British currency. However, the sensation did not happen. The Bank of England raised the rate by 50 bp, bringing it to 1.75%, which had been previously taken into account by the market in quotes.

The minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Bank of England turned out to be quite boring as well. If any of its 9 members wanted to raise the rate by 75 bp, it would be taken as a positive development for the pound. And vice versa: the desire to raise the rate by only 25 bp. would put additional pressure on the British currency. But, as is clear from the minutes, all 9 members of the Committee voted unanimously for raising the rate exactly by 50 bp.

The revised economic forecasts turned out to be quite gloomy, and BOE management's post-meeting statements were hazy dovish. According to the head of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey, the current rate hike by 50 bp does not mean that the bank will do the same at each subsequent meeting. “Interest rates will not go back to where they were before the financial crisis,” said Andrew Bailey vaguely. “And we don’t know what normal interest rates will be in the future.” BOE chief economist Hugh Pill added to the haze saying that "the equilibrium level of interest rates is very uncertain."

As a result of the absence of any benchmarks, the GBP/USD pair, having fluctuated between the levels of 1.2064 and 1.2214, returned to the center of this range on Thursday, August 04. On Friday, on the news from the US labor market, it fell to a strong support of 1.2000, and finished at 1.2070.

According to a third of analysts, the past week did not bring anything good to the pound, and therefore the pair will continue its fall. The opposite point of view is also held by a third of the experts, another third remains neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 90% to 10% in favor of the red ones. Among the oscillators, only 35% side with the bears, 25% indicate growth, 40% have taken a neutral position.

The nearest support is located at the level of 1.2000-1.2025, followed by the zone 1.1875-1.1925. Below is the level of 1.1800, the low of July 14 is 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and the lows of March 2020. in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.2100-1.2130, 1.2170-1.2215, 1.2245, 1.2280-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

In terms of macro news coming out of the UK, Friday 12 August could be marked next week. Data on the country's GDP and production in the UK manufacturing industry will be published on this day.

USD/JPY: High Volatility, Neutral Outlook

Looking at the chart, the 134.60-137.00 range is quite attractive for both bulls and bears on the USD/JPY pair. It traded in it from mid-June to early July, and it returned to it at the end of last week. Having started on Monday August 01 from the level of 133.31, the pair reached the local bottom at the level of 130.37 the next day. This was followed by a reversal and the dollar began to actively win back losses. As a result, the last chord sounded at a height of 135.00.

As for the prospects of the Japanese currency, the experts' forecast looks quite neutral, as in the cases of previous pairs. 45% of them are waiting for a new breakthrough of the pair to the north, another 45% hope for a continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 10% talk about a side corridor. The picture is somewhat different in the readings of indicators on D1 and is rather multidirectional. Trend indicators have a ratio of 85% to 15% in favor of green ones. Oscillators have the opposite: 60% look to the north, 40% to the east, while the number of supporters of the downtrend is 0%.

The values of possible slippage and ranges of support/resistance zones have sharply increased due to the ultra-high volatility of the pair. Supports are located at the levels and in the zones 134.75, 134.25, 132.60-133.15, 131.50, 130.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 136.35-137.00, 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, followed by the July 14 high of 139.38 and round bull targets¬ of 140.00 and 142.00.

No major events regarding the Japanese economy are expected this week. The only thing to keep in mind is the public holiday on Thursday August 11, when Japan celebrates Mountain Day. This is the Newbie traderest public holiday; it was established in 2014 at the initiative of environmental and tourism organizations in order to support the citizens' love for the nature of their country and give the Japanese "the opportunity to get to know the mountains and feel the grace emanating from them."
 
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Influencers Talk about a Very Long Crypto Spring

(https://i.imgur.com/AgtZwmf.jpg)

The price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, in line with December 2020 levels and almost 75% below its all-time high of $68,918. The BTC/USD pair slowly crept up from that moment on, demonstrating a series of rising lows and highs over 7 weeks. Moreover, the volatility of the pair gradually increased: if it was about $3,150 at the beginning, it exceeded $4,000 by the end of July.

Disputes have not subsided about what happened on June 18 over the past month and a half: did bitcoin find the bottom? Or is it just the middle of the crypto-winter, and the real frosts are yet to come?

At the time of writing, Friday evening, August 05, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.089 trillion ($1.098 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear zone, at a level of 31 points (39 a week ago). The BTC/USD pair is trading in the $22,900 zone.

According to Arcane Research analysts, if bitcoin holds the $20,700 level, the price will soon be in the $27,000-$28,000 range. But “if bitcoin falls below $20,700, it will mark a falling low. This is a bearish signal in the context of technical analysis.” Arcane Research emphasized that much depends on the dynamics of the US stock market, with which the price of bitcoin is closely correlated. The dynamics of the Fed's key rate also plays an important role. “Rising interest rates increase the cost of capital and thus cause stock prices to fall. Tech stocks are declining the most. As the degree of institutionalization has increased, bitcoin has become closely associated with traditional financial markets,” the researchers explained. According to them, if the stock market continues to fall, the downtrend of digital gold will continue. (Note that the S&P500 is currently trading around the important support/resistance zone of 4.100-4.150. But according to Goldman Sachs, the US stock market is headed for another big sell-off.)

Glassnode is also unsure about the continuation of bitcoin's recovery momentum. The rise in prices of BTC and Ethereum in recent days has not been accompanied by a fundamental improvement in the readings of on-chain indicators. And this does not give confidence in a fundamental change in the market situation, the company's analysts believe.

The number of active bitcoin addresses remains within the downtrend channel. With the exception of brief bursts during periods of capitulation, network activity remains subdued. This indicates a small influx of new demand. Similar trends are observed in the Ethereum blockchain. Despite the recent powerful price movement, the network load in terms of the number of transactions has been systematically decreasing since May 2021 to the lowest levels since the summer of 2020.

There has been a surge in activity in recent weeks, which analysts have associated with the consolidation of coins in wallets. They explained that they would change their mind if this trend proved sustainable. Glassnode experts had previously warned that it might take additional time to form a solid foundation. This is evidenced by long-term indicators such as URPD. To increase the chances of a market reversal, it is important to see the transition of speculative coins into the category of “held by long-term investors” (in other words, the “age” of coins from the moment of purchase must exceed 155 days).

Bank of America estimated the volume of withdrawn bitcoins from cryptocurrency platforms to cold wallets at ~$508 million, Ethereum at ~$381 million (data from July 2 to August 1). The first asset has risen in price by 19% over this period, the latter - by 56%. However, the conclusions of the bank's specialists look more optimistic than those of their colleagues from Glassnode. So, in their opinion, the increase in the outflow of cryptocurrencies from exchanges and the growth in net inflows into stablecoins signal a bullish market momentum. At the same time, Bank of America noted the “easing of pressure from sellers” and the transition of the initiative to buyers of digital assets. Experts also pointed to the sustainability of the trend, even despite the fact that the Fed raised key rates by 0.75% on July 27.

Trader and investor Bob Loukas, like many other members of the crypto community, agrees that halvings are driving market trends. The next one is expected in 2024 at block number 840,000. And after bitcoin hits a new all-time high, the digital asset market, according to Bob Lucas, may plunge into a “real crypto winter” in 2026.

According to his model, bitcoin market movements can be measured in cycles of 16 years, consisting of four micro cycles of 4 years each. In this case, the cycles must be counted from one local low to another. “Although it’s hard to believe, in theory, bitcoin’s 2026 lows could form below the 2022 lows,” the investor said.

Mark Yusko, managing partner at Morgan Creek Digital, agrees with the narrative that the main cryptocurrency goes through speculative cycles. In his opinion, BTC is now in the "spring" part of the cycle and forms the basis for the next "summer" bull run, which should occur shortly before the 2024 halving. “In my opinion, the crypto spring has begun,” Yusko writes. "If we look at the last two cycles, we will see the same number of days in the cycle where spring began, and winter ended. The crypto spring can last for months, and we don't need a bull market right now. When we get to the crypto summer, we will see the next bull run and it should happen in anticipation of the next halving in 2024.”

According to Morgan Creek Digital CEO, the current structure of the bitcoin market points to the process of reaching the bottom. “I am not ready to say unequivocally so far whether the bottom has been reached,” the investor said. “But if you look back, you can see that bitcoin has made several higher lows and highs. […] This is a pretty good bullish trend, and a crypto spring is possible.”

Mark Yusko also believes that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair. In his opinion, despite the forecasts of experts about a possible fall below $18,000, the "fair value" of the coin should be about $30,000 at the moment, and it could soar to $250,000 by 2026.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of SkyBridge Capital, like Mark Yusko, thinks that after the collapse caused by the bankruptcy of Three Arrows, Celsius and Voyager, the worst of the “bearish” moments for the crypto sector is over. And he also points to 2026, warning that the term of investments in digital assets should be at least 4 or 5 years. As for the “fair value” of bitcoin, it, in his opinion, should now be in the region of $40,000.

Another top manager, Pantera Capital's CEO, Dan Morehead, shares a similar opinion. Like his colleagues, he believes that the digital asset market has almost bottomed out. There are still companies that are in the process of liquidation in bankruptcy court. However, the largest defaults have already occurred in May and June, when the pressure on the industry reached its peak. “I think we are really close to the end of the market crisis. The market has been falling for eight months now. We observed the most severe manifestations of the crisis in November, May and June. It seems that we have seen everything that we should have,” said the CEO of Pantera Capital.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 10, 2022, 04:26:13 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/cvn6nni.jpg)

- Bitcoin Core team member Matt Corallo called the maximalists of the first cryptocurrency an “endangered species” and urged them to stop attacking other projects. According to him, the “most vocal proponents” are attacking other communities counterproductively instead of promoting the “greatness and uniqueness” of digital gold. In his opinion, in the context of the current policy of confronting projects in the crypto community, many of the Ethereum community (as with Ripple before) will begin to set regulators against bitcoin, relying on ecology.

- Law enforcement agencies of the Republic of Kazakhstan conducted a special operation, as a result of which the gang that controlled cryptominers was neutralized. 23 people were detained during several rCorporate debt.  Weapons, black bookkeeping, as well as more than 6,000 items of mining equipment worth about $7 million were seized during the searches. It is reported that the criminals made a profit of $300-500 thousand per month due to the activities of the mining farms under their control.

- The number of cryptocurrency ATMs worldwide has increased to 39,015, according to the Coin ATM Radar service. The figure was 25,154 a year ago. The United States holds the leading position by a wide margin: 87.9% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs are concentrated there. Canada ranks second with 6.3%.

– Bitcoin is trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. This was stated by Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence. “The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,” he explained.
The analyst emphasized the high importance of the stock market, with which bitcoin shows a noticeable correlation, and mentioned the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urged not to try to fight the Fed.

- Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

- An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). “PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."
The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: “Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.”
And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium at Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities, prominent figures from Central banks and a number of other sectors discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.
These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. “If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.”

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of investment company Galaxy Digital, said that bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $30,000 anytime soon. He noted in an interview with Bloomberg that he does not observe an influx of institutional investors into the first cryptocurrency at the moment. The billionaire himself “would be happy” if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.
(Note that a recent survey of institutional investors by Cumberland showed that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year.)
As for ethereum, Mike Novogratz believes that this altcoin could reach the $2,200 mark, given the momentum leading up to the upgrade to change the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected in end of September.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin believes that the market has not yet taken into account the upcoming transition of the network to Proof-of-Stake, which should take place in September. “Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,” he said. “In my opinion, […] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.”

- The World Tourism Organization at the UN has included El Salvador in its list. According to the President of the country Nayib Bukele, it was bitcoin that helped the significant growth of the tourism industry. The head of state stressed that only a few countries managed to return tourism indicators to pre-pandemic levels. The adoption of bitcoin as legal tender, as well as the creation of a "bitcoin beach", has attracted tourists from all over the world to El Salvador. The President also noted the growth of domestic tourism due to the decrease in crime. Nayib Bukele presented statistics from the search giant Google: El Salvador is marked on the map as a country with "higher than expected" tourist activity.
Morena Valdez, Minister of Tourism of El Salvador, said earlier that tourism in the country has grown by 30% thanks to bitcoin. At the same time, cryptocurrency enthusiasts stay in El Salvador for a longer period and spend more money. If the daily expenses of a tourist in the country ranged from $113 to $150 earlier, they exceed $200 now.

- The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, a popular crypto analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds into cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC rate to $773,000.
“If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,” the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

- According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. “I think we've already seen the worst. There's still a little more to go, but it's not that bad,” said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. “Some bitcoin miners might have some problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.”
However, the SBF’s spring forecast was not without a “but”: “If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in a recession for two and a half years […], bitcoin could drop to $15,000 or $10,000,” said the CEO of FTX.
The crypto winter froze a number of once-thriving companies such as Three Arrows Capital, Terraform Labs and Voyager Digital, but FTX survived the cold. Commenting on the incident, its head said that the recession "became a healthy weed" for the industry.

- Despite the decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency in 2022, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC and more is growing steadily (+9.4% since the beginning of the year). The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with balances of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months.
This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. Analytical resource The Balance posted a report stating that 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies. According to the author of the report, these Americans are looking for new areas of investment to maintain their savings amid economic uncertainty. Among millennials and Gen Z investors (aged 41 and Newbie traderer), almost 50% prefer cryptocurrencies. Among investors of generation X and older, they are just under a third.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 13, 2022, 12:52:00 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 15 - 19, 2022


EUR/USD: Weak Inflation Weakens Dollar

(https://i.imgur.com/sA1MZlf.jpg)

EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for more than three weeks. Attempts to break through its upper or lower border ended in failure each time. Even very strong data on the US labor market, which came out in the first week of August, did not help the dollar. Recall that unemployment in the US has remained at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even lower in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier.

The sideways movement continued until Wednesday, August 10, when the pair moved sharply higher, turning the 1.0270 level from resistance to support. And the point here is not the strengthening of the euro, but the weakening of the dollar. The position of the American currency deteriorated after the release of the US inflation report. The consumer price index (CPI) with a forecast of 0.2% in July turned out to be at the level of 0.0% (1.3% a month earlier). It decreased from 9.1% to 8.5% (forecast 8.7%) on an annualized basis. Instead of the expected 0.5%, the base CPI grew by only 0.3% in July (0.7% a month earlier).

All these figures indicate clearly that inflation, the war against which the Fed launched, is declining. Of course, this is not a final victory, but the success of the American Central Bank is obvious. Therefore, it may soften its monetary policy somewhat and not raise interest rates as aggressively as it has done in the past two months.

Speaking at the end of the July meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Fed Chairman Jerome Powell tried to convince everyone that the regulator is still hawkish. And that, if necessary, the Fed is ready to accelerate the pace of rate hikes. However, even then the markets did not believe Powell and reacted by turning towards the stock market. And now the inflation data has become another argument in favor of the fact that the FOMC may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but only by 0.50% in September, stop raising rates altogether in November, and return to the quantitative easing program altogether in 2023.

Of course, this is just a forecast so far. More precisely, not even a forecast, but just expectations. But it was them that continued to push stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq up, and did not allow the EUR/USD pair to fall again to the parity of 1.0000. Not yet.

EUR/USD ended the past week at 1.0260, returning to the medium-term sideways channel of 1.0100-1.0270. 45% of experts vote for the fact that it will go further down, and maybe even break through the lower border of the channel. 35% show it the way to the north and 20% - to the east. As for the oscillators on D1, 40% are colored red, 40% are green, and 20% are neutral gray. There is complete balance among the trend indicators: 50% look south and 50% look north.

The nearest support for the pair is the level 1.0220, then there are zones 1.01500-1.0200 and 1.0095-1.0120. The bears' main target is, of course, 1.0000. If this key level is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone of 0.9900-0.9930. The next serious task of the bulls will be a breakout of the upper border of the channel 1.0270, then there is a high of the past week in the area of 1.0364-1.0368, the next target is a return to the zone 1.0400-1.0450, then there are zones 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750.

The coming week will be full of all sorts of economic statistics. Thus, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany will be published on Tuesday, August 16. there will be preliminary data on Eurozone GDP (Q2) on Wednesday, August 17, as well as data on retail sales in the US. The minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be published on the same day. We are waiting for data on European inflation (CPI) on Thursday, August 18, as well as on the labor market, home sales and manufacturing activity in the United States.

GBP/USD: GDP Falls, Forecasts Remain Gloomy

GBP/USD reacted to the US inflation data released on Wednesday, August 10, with a jump north by almost 200 points to the height of 1.2276. True, it failed to stay there, and the last chord sounded at around 1.2135. Even the global rise in risk sentiment did not help the pound. The main reason is the gloomy economic prospects for the UK economy and no less gloomy forecasts of the Bank of England.

UK GDP data for both June and Q2 were released on Friday, August 12. The June contraction turned out to be less than expected: -0.6%, while the forecast was -1.2%. The fall in GDP in April-June amounted to -0.1% against the expected -0.2% and +0.8% in Q1. Accordingly, the annual figure was 2.9% against the forecasted 2.8% and 8.7% in Q1. All these data turned out to be slightly better than expected. But, despite this, the slide of the economy into recession is an obvious fact, and the only question that remains is the depth and duration of such a fall.

According to 55% of analysts, the last week did not bring anything good to the pound, and therefore the pair will continue its fall. The opposite point of view is also held by only 15% of experts, the remaining 30% remain neutral. The readings of the indicators on D1 are as follows. As for the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones. Only 25% of the oscillators side with the bears, 35% indicate growth, 40% have taken a neutral position.

The nearest support is located at 1.2100, followed by zones and levels 1.2045-1.2065, 1.2000, 1.1875-1.1925 and 1.1800. Below is July 14 low of 1.1759, then 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

The main event of the coming week is likely to be the release of UK inflation data (CPI) on Wednesday August 17. Also noteworthy on the calendar is Tuesday August 16, when UK labor market data comes in, and Friday August 19, when July retail sales in the country become known.

USD/JPY: Yen: Hope for Better but a Very Distant Future

The dynamics of USD/JPY last week was similar to the dynamics of EUR/USD reversed. (This is logical, since here the dollar moves from the position of the base currency to the position of the quote currency). Having started on Monday, August 8 from 135.00, the pair went down sharply on Wednesday, August 10 on the basis of US inflation data, reached the local bottom at 131.72 on August 11, then reversed and finished at 133.45.

Those who are ready to open long-term positions will probably be interested in the forecast of analysts from Westpac, one of the largest banks in Australia, one of the Big Four, and the second largest bank in New Zealand. They believe that the current level of USD/JPY can be justified. Japan is favored by economic growth in Asia and the continuing downward trend in energy prices. And given the possible easing of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, according to Westpac strategists, the pair may fall to 123.00 by the end of 2023.

The end of 2023 is quite far away, more than 16 months. As for the forecast for the near future, the opinions of experts are divided as follows. 45% of analysts expect the pair to rise, another 25% hope for the strengthening of the yen and the continuation of the downtrend, the remaining 30% speak of a side corridor. The readings of indicators on D1 give a bit different picture. Trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of the red ones. Oscillators are 15% north, 40% south, and the remaining 45% east.

Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 133.00, 132.50-132.85, 131.75-132.00, 131.00, 130.40, 128.60 and 126.35-127.00. Resistances are 134.00, 134.40-134.60, 135.30-135.60, 136.35-137.00, 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38.

As for the events of the upcoming week, it is worth paying attention to Monday, August 15, when the preliminary volume of Japan's GDP for Q2 2022 will be known. According to forecasts, it may grow from negative -0.1% to +0.6%. This is the main macroeconomic indicator of market activity, which assesses the rate of growth or decline of the country's economy. Its growth is usually a positive, bullish, factor for the national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: August 26: a Terrible Day on the Calendar

The crypto community continues to wonder if the crypto market has bottomed out or if a new price collapse awaits us. Before moving on to the next batch of forecasts, let's start with some statistics.

So, the price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, which is in line with the level of December 2020 and almost 75% below the all-time high of $68,918. If we measure from the beginning of 2022, the main cryptocurrency started at $47,572 on January 01, and its fall was 63% by June 18. After that, BTC/USD crept up slowly, demonstrating a series of rising lows and highs over 8 weeks. However, as the chart shows, bearish resistance sharply increased above $24,000 and the upward momentum began to fade rapidly. So, the weekly maximum was at a height of $24.264 on July 20, $24.435 on July 29, and, finally, $24.891 on August 11. That is, growth was only about 2.5% over the past 3 weeks. 

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, August 12, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.155 trillion ($1.089 trillion a week ago), and the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is still in the fear zone, at a level of 42 points (31 weeks ago).  BTC/USD is trading at $24,100, about 50% lower than at the beginning of the year.

Despite this price reduction, the number of addresses with a balance of 1 BTC has grown by 9.4% since the beginning of 2022. The indicator reached a historical high of 891.009 at the end of July. The situation is even more pronounced with addresses with a balance of more than 1 ETH, the number of which has grown by 15.7% over seven months. This trend indicates the desire of investors to accumulate. For example, according to the analytical resource The Balance, 39% of US investors began to invest more in cryptocurrencies, wanting to keep their savings.

Is it worth buying the flagship cryptocurrency now? Bloomberg Intelligence Senior Strategist Mike McGlone believes bitcoin is currently trading at a significant discount in a sustained bull market. “The first cryptocurrency hit an all-time low in July compared to its 100-week moving average,” the expert explained.

Mark Yusko, managing partner of Morgan Creek Digital, also says that the current price of the first cryptocurrency is unfair, and should be around $30,000. And according to Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, the “fair value” of BTC should now be around $40,000. PlanB, the creator of the once-popular Stock-to-Flow model, has the bar even higher at $55,000.

All these influencers have their own models and their own justifications. However, one must keep in mind that “fair price” is a rather relative concept. And perhaps the fairest is the current market value. That is, how much sellers are ready to sell now, and buyers are ready to buy a particular asset for.

Some on-chain indicators signaled the passing of the capitulation period and an improvement in investor sentiment in July. This is stated in an analytical report by ForkLog. Against the background of consolidation and the subsequent smooth recovery of the price of bitcoin, the Puell Multiple indicator began to exit the deep oversold zone. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric has moved into the hope/fear zone and is heading towards optimism. The MVRV Z-Score crossed the upper boundary of the deep oversold zone at 0.1 on July 28. This is another signal about the passage of the "bottom" of the market cycle.

According to Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO of the FTX crypto exchange, crypto winter is probably coming to an end, and spring is just around the corner. “I think we've seen the worst already,” said the multi-billionaire, better known as SBF. “Some bitcoin miners might have some more problems, but I think we are talking about a few hundred million dollars in total pain, not billions.”

However, SBF’s crypto spring forecast was not without a “but”: “If Nasdaq is left to fall another 25%, and if Fed interest rates do rise to 7%, and if we are in recession for two and a half years […] , bitcoin could fall to $15,000 or $10,000,” said the CEO of FTX.

Mike McGlone of Bloomberg Intelligence also looks cautiously towards the US Central Bank. The analyst emphasizes the key role of the US Federal Reserve, which is pursuing aggressive rate hikes in 2022. This could potentially create barriers to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies and stocks. At the same time, Mike McGlone urges not to try to fight the Fed.

Risky assets will have to pass the next serious test at the end of August. An analyst with the nickname Guy noted that the release of economic data expected this month could have a significant impact on the crypto markets. According to him, 3 important factors can interrupt the current uptrend. The first is the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE). “PCE data for July will be released on August 26. Given that PCE is the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, a high value could lead to markets collapse in anticipation of an aggressive rate hike."

The second factor is the US gross domestic product for the second quarter: “Revised GDP data for the second quarter will also be published on August 26. Pay attention to them. If these figures are revised upwards, that is, in fact, the US will no longer be in a technical recession, this may push the Fed to raise interest rates even more.”

And finally, the third factor is the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where US financial authorities discuss global economic problems. The symposium will take place from August 25 to 27, which coincides with the release dates of the two above-mentioned statistics.

These factors could influence the decisions of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, which will have a cascading effect on the crypto market. “If the statistics turn out to be unimportant, and Powell is not in the best mood, then the crypto market will have a bad time. Although there are chances that he will keep his thoughts to himself long enough for the cryptocurrency market to continue its recovery rally.”

A recent Cumberland Institutional Investor Survey found that the majority of respondents expect bitcoin to rise to $32,000 by the end of the year. Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital investment company, named a slightly smaller figure. In his opinion, the coin is unlikely to rise above the $30,000 level in the near future. The billionaire himself “would be happy” if BTC stopped for a while in the range of $20,000 to $30,000.

The most optimistic forecast this time was given by a popular analyst under the nickname InvestAnswers. The American cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase and the largest investment company BlackRock entered into a partnership agreement last week. BlackRock manages over $10 trillion in assets at the moment. Based on this, InvestAnswers believes that the influx of funds in cryptocurrencies from BlackRock clients could push the BTC price to $773,000.

“If BlackRock places 0.5% of its assets in BTC, then, taking into account the leverage, the capitalization of bitcoin will increase by $1.05 trillion, which means the price will rise to $75,000. And this, I think, is very likely. If BlackRock clients stake 1% of their holdings, then the capitalization will increase by $2.1 trillion, and bitcoin will reach $173,000. And if BlackRock places 5% of its assets, the bitcoin rate will reach $773,000. Although I think this is too aggressive, it may be possible within 3-5 years,” the analyst wrote. (It should be noted here that InvestAnswers calculations are correct only for investments with a leverage of 1:21 or more).

And in conclusion of the review, a few words about the main altcoin, ethereum, which is recovering much faster than bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair has risen by about 40% over the past eight weeks, while ETH/ USD has grown by almost 120%. Most experts attribute this bull rally to the upcoming change in the consensus algorithm from Proof-of-Work (PoW) to Proof-of-Stake (PoS), which is expected at the end of September. The head of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, believes that the altcoin can reach the $2,200 mark even before this event. But according to ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, the best is yet to come, after the network transitions to Proof-of-Stake. “Once the merger actually happens, I expect investor sentiment to improve,” he said. “In my opinion, […] the main impact on the ETH rate will be provided after the completion of the merger process.”


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 21, 2022, 09:09:47 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 22 - 26, 2022


EUR/USD: Back to 1:1 Parity

EUR/USD has been moving sideways in the 1.0100-1.0270 channel for more than three weeks. All attempts to break through its upper or lower border ended in failure. This movement continued until August 10, when, after the publication of data on inflation in the US, the pair went up sharply, turning the level of 1.0270 from resistance into support. However, the bulls' joy was short-lived. Just two days later, the pair returned to the channel, broke through its lower border on Thursday, August 18, and ended the week at 1.0039.

So, as most experts expected, the dollar and the euro approached the parity of 1.0000 again. There are two main reasons explaining the next reversal of the pair to the south. The first is the drop in the market's risk appetites. Inflation and the energy crisis in Europe are on the rise. The consumer price index (CPI) rose there in annual terms from 8.6% to 8.9% in July. So far, there is no way out of the energy crisis caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its invasion of Ukraine. The Chinese economy is not encouraging either: the volume of industrial production (y/y) fell from 3.9% to 3.8% over the month, which is much lower than the forecasted 4.6%. The volume of retail sales fell from 3.1% to 2.7% as well (against the forecast of 5.0%). Against this background, the People's Bank of China lowered the base lending rate on the yuan sharply, from 3.70% to 2.75%.

The second reason lies in the positive macroeconomic statistics from the US and investors' confidence in the strength of the country's economy. It is known that the main "whales" that now determine the Fed's monetary policy are the state of the labor market and inflation. Unemployment in the US has been holding at 3.6% since March, which is a very good indicator. And it became even lower in July, 3.5%. And such an important indicator as NFP, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a forecast of 250K, actually reached 528K. And this despite the fact that it was 372K a month earlier. As for inflation, the figures look quite good here as well. The consumer price index (CPI) with a forecast of 0.2% in July turned out to be at the level of 0.0% (1.3% a month earlier). It decreased from 9.1% to 8.5% (forecast 8.7%) on an annualized basis. Instead of the expected 0.5%, the base CPI grew by only 0.3% in July (0.7% a month earlier).

All these figures indicate clearly that inflation, the war against which the Fed launched, is declining. Of course, this is not a final victory, but the success of the American Central Bank is obvious. Therefore, it may soften its monetary policy somewhat and not raise interest rates as aggressively as it has done in the past two months. It was this logic that played against the dollar, pushing EUR/USD up to 1.0368 on August 10. However, everything returned to normal soon. Fed chief Jerome Powell assured everyone that the regulator remains hawkish. The markets made the same conclusion from the minutes of the July meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) published on Wednesday, August 17.

It is expected that the American Central Bank may raise the rate from the current 2.5% to 4.0% by the end of 2022 - the beginning of 2023, and possibly to 5.0%, after which it will hold it in order to bring inflation down to the target level of 2%. This means that the dollar will be strong enough for a long time to come. This forecast pushed up the USD DXY Index again. Following this, the yield of US government bonds and securities of other developed countries began to grow, and stock indices (S & P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), cryptocurrencies and other risky assets rushed south. Having believed in the rate hike and the prospects for the dollar, investors even began to get rid of such a protective asset as gold: the quotes of XAU/USD were falling throughout the past week.

As for the near future of the EUR/USD pair, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of August 19, only 15% of experts speak in favor of its growth, a little more indicate the way for it to the south - 25%, the remaining 60% refrain from forecasts. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. 100% side with the bears both among trend indicators and among oscillators. However, a third gives signals of it being oversold among the latter.

Apart from the support at 1.0030, the immediate target for the EUR/USD pair is, of course, the 1.0000 level. After it is broken, the bears will target the July 14 low at 0.9950, even lower is the strong 2002 support/resistance zone 0.9900-0.9930. The immediate target for the bulls is a return to the zone 1.0070-1.0100, then resistance and zones 1.0120, 1.0150-1.0180, 1.0200 and 1.0250-1.0270 follow. More distant targets are located in the zones 1.0400-1.0450, 1.0520-1.0600 and 1.0650-1.0750.

Upcoming events include the release of the German and Eurozone Manufacturing PMIs on Tuesday, August 23. The volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US will be known the next day. There will be a whole series of events on Thursday, August 25. Firstly, this is the publication of data on German GDP for Q2. Then, the publication of the minutes of the ECB meeting on monetary policy. And finally, four important events in the US that could seriously affect the current trend of the dollar. Data on GDP for Q2 and on unemployment will be published on August 25, and the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which is called "the Fed's favorite inflation indicator," will become known on August 26. The release of all these statistics will coincide with the annual economics symposium in Jackson Hole on August 25-27. The US financial authorities discuss the most important economic issues there, and these indicators are sure to influence their decisions.

GBP/USD: Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True

GBP/USD rushed down again after US Federal Reserve officials pointed to a further sharp increase in interest rates. It was further accelerated by speeches by a number of Fed officials, including the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis James Bullard and his colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Mary Daley. One can conclude from their hawkish attitude that the dollar interest rate will probably be increased by 75 basis points (bp) in September for the third time in a row. At the same time, the head of the Kansas City Fed, Esther George, said that the regulator would tighten monetary policy until it was completely sure that inflation was on the decline.

Statements by US officials caused GBP/USD to drop 344 points in five days from 1.2135 to 1.1791 from 1.2135 and end the week slightly higher at 1.1830. The pound was not helped even by the unexpected growth of retail sales in the UK in July by 0.3%. UK shoppers spent more than expected thanks to online sales promotions. The rest of the macro statistics came out ambiguous. The average wage rate, with a forecast of 4.5%, was 5.1%, and the number of applications for unemployment benefits fell from 28.8K to 10.5K over the month. However, despite some improvements in the labor market, inflation in the UK exceeded the expected 9.8% and reached 10.1% (against 9.4% a month earlier). According to the forecast of the Bank of England, the recession in the country will probably begin in Q4 and may last more than a year.

GBP/USD fell to its lowest level in the last 5 weeks and, according to 30% of analysts, may continue to fall. Corrections to the north are also expected by 30%, the remaining 40% of experts remain neutral. The indicator readings on D1 look exactly the same as those of the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red, while 30% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support is at 1.1800, followed by July 14 low at 1.1759, followed by 1.1650, 1.1535 and March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1875-1.1925, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, there will be data on business activity in various sectors of the country's economy on Tuesday, August 23. The values of the Business Activity Index in the manufacturing sector, the service sector, as well as the Composite Index (PMI), which reflects the level of activity of purchasing managers in both sectors of the UK economy, will become known.

USD/JPY: Japan's GDP Grows, Yen Rate Falls

The growth of the DXY Index, which shows the ratio of the US dollar to a basket of six other major foreign currencies, as well as the growth of US Treasury yields, has evidently affected the dynamics of USD/JPY. The pair, starting from 133.45, rose to the height of 137.22 during the weekly trading session, and set the last chord at 136.81.

The data released on Monday, August 15, made the prospects for monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan even more uncertain. If this world's third largest economy fell by 0.1% in Q1, it showed a steady growth of 0.5% in Q2 (slightly less than the expected 0.6%). On an annualized basis, the Japanese economy, with a forecast of +2.5%, actually grew by 2.2% (there was a contraction of -0.5% in the previous quarter).

GDP is the main macroeconomic indicator of market activity that assesses the rate of growth or decline of a country's economy. Usually its growth is positive bullish, factor for the national currency. Usually, but not in these times, when the attractiveness of a particular currency is determined by the size of interest rates. And according to this parameter, the yen is far behind the US dollar.

According to economists from the international financial group Nordea, “The continuation of the Fed's policy of tightening monetary policy, along with most other G10 central banks, will keep pressure on the Japanese yen. […] Without any change in monetary policy from the BOJ, which we do not expect for the foreseeable future, the door will be open for the Japanese yen to hit 140 against the dollar again.” At the same time, according to the strategists of another bank, the Australian Westpac, the pair may drop to 123.00 in the longer term, by the end of 2023.

If we move on to the median forecast for the near term, it looks like this: 20% of analysts expect the pair to rise, 35% hope for the yen to strengthen and return to the downtrend, the remaining 45% talk about a side corridor. Trend indicators on D1 have 100% pointing north. As for oscillators, 90% are looking in the same direction, while 25% are in the overbought zone. The remaining 10% of the oscillators point east. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 135.55-136.00, 134.00-134.25, 132.85-133.00, 131.75-132.00, 131.00. Resistances are 137.45, 137.90-138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38. Bulls' next targets­ are 140.00 and 142.00.

No significant statistics on the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bugatti Sports Car for 1 BTC: a Pipe Dream or Reality?

(https://i.imgur.com/EgFXc57.jpg)

Among the many questions that concern the crypto community, two main ones can probably be distinguished: 1) Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? and 2) How much will bitcoin be worth? The first of them will be answered by White Paper Films, which announced the start of work on a documentary film dedicated to the personality and mysterious disappearance of the creator of the first cryptocurrency. (By the way, you can find a lot of interesting information on this subject on the NordFX broker website). As for the second question, as usual, we will look for answers to it in this weekly review.

First, there is good news for those who are waiting for the major cryptocurrency to surge upwards. A new study by Glassnode has shown that despite the fall in the crypto market, the use of the bitcoin network continues to grow: the number of unique addresses has now peaked at over 1 billion. (For comparison: the main competitor of BTC, ethereum with 158 million addresses is far behind on this indicator).

Good news No.2. According to Arcane Research, miners sold 6,500 BTC in July. This is 60% less than in June, when 14,600 coins were sold. The fall of the crypto market has created a lot of serious problems for public mining companies that have increased their production capacity with borrowed funds. Faced with the crisis, they are forced to dump the mined coins at low prices in order to pay off their debt obligations. Some, in the end, had enough margin of safety and managed to survive, while others turned out to be bankrupt.

The July data gives a timid hope that the industry is recovering, the pressure of miners is weakening. They hold onto their coins in the hope that they will rise. However, Arcane Research notes that 6,500 bitcoins is still more than in May, when miners shocked the market by selling more coins than they mined.

Good news No.3. A number of technical indicators signal the increasing likelihood of bitcoin reversing towards sustainable growth. Thus, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator recorded a minimum on June 18, 2022. This indicator had lower values only in December 2018 and March 2020. Another indicator, RHODL indicates a significant predominance of long-term investors on the market over short-term ones. This means that the holders do not plan to sell their coins and are guided by the growth of the market in the future.

This is the end of the good news this week. Recall that the price of bitcoin fell to $17,597 on June 18, in line with December 2020 levels and almost 75% below its all-time high of $68,918. If we measure from the beginning of 2022, the main cryptocurrency started at $47,572 on January 01, and its fall was 63% by June 18. However, as the chart shows, bearish resistance sharply increased above $24,000 and the upward momentum began to fade rapidly. So, the weekly high was at a height of $24,264 on July 20, $24,435 on July 29, $24,891 on August 11, and, finally,  $25,195 on August 15. That is, the uptrend seems to have continued, but the increase in highs was less than 4% over the past 4 weeks. And the past week has generally brought investors a complete disappointment.

As of this writing, Friday evening, August 19, the total crypto market capitalization is $1.028 trillion ($1.155 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 9 points in seven days from 42 to 33 and came close to the Extreme Fear zone. BTC/USD has gone down sharply again and is trading at $21.095. There are several reasons for this fall. First, the intention of the Fed to continue raising rates, which became clear from the minutes of its last meeting. Secondly, there is strong downward pressure from the fever in the stablecoin market. First, aUSD was compromised, and HUSD, the token of the Huobi crypto exchange, lost its peg to the dollar last week. If we add to this the bankruptcy of a number of cryptocurrency funds, the pessimism that reigns in the market becomes clear.

Well-known analyst and DataDash founder Nicholas Merten noted that bitcoin and ethereum are showing signs of weakness despite their rising prices in recent weeks. According to Merten, the fact that the recovery of the stock market is ahead of the recovery of crypto assets suggests that the latter may not have much strength left to continue the rally. If cryptocurrencies sell out faster than stocks during a downtrend, then they should have recovered faster. But there is no such recovery at the moment.

Another crypto strategist, nicknamed Capo, believes that “there is a chance to see another attempt by the main cryptocurrency to storm the $25,400-$25,500 range.” However, according to his colleagues at Norhstar & Badcharts, there is a possibility that bitcoin could start to drop sharply to $10,000-$12,000. They explained their assumption in an interview with Kitco News as follows: “According to the chart, the price of bitcoin is in an inverted arc, opposite to the Cup pattern… There are a number of technical analysis methods that increase to 70-80% the probability that the price of bitcoin will make new lows of $10,000 -$12,000 and there's about a 20% to 30% chance it will go up." In the event that the bitcoin rate goes up, according to Norhstar & Badcharts, it could reach $29,000-$30,000. According to them, this is the maximum level that the value of BTC can rise to before it starts to fall. “We are either already at local peaks or very close to them,” Norhstar & Badcharts says.

As usual, influencers who have invested heavily in bitcoin are trying to knock down the wave of pessimism. They continue to convince everyone and everywhere of the fantastic prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, former director of communications at the White House and now head of the investment company SkyBridge Capital, recalled in an interview with CNBC the limited issue of bitcoin of 21 million coins, which will lead to “shock demand with little supply.” Scaramucci believes that the first cryptocurrency can show unprecedented growth within six years. “If we're right, if bitcoin goes to $300,000 it won't matter if you bought it at $20,000 or $60,000. The future is ours. And it will happen sooner than I thought,” he says.

The former director of the White House is echoed by the former head of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor. Recall that this company acquired 129,698 BTC under his management. Despite the current unrealized huge losses on these trades, Michael Saylor is confident that the purchase of bitcoin as a reserve asset was justified, and the asset will prove to be reliable in the future. “We […] got into the lifeboat of the first cryptocurrency with the understanding that we would be tossed in the ocean, but we would not drown and would appreciate this step over time,” said Saylor. According to him, the volatility of cryptocurrencies will only affect short-term investors and public companies, so bitcoin is not for everyone. “The investment should be for a period of at least four years. Ideally, this is the transfer of wealth from generation to generation. The metric that confirms this is the four-year moving average,” he explains.

And at the end of the review, here is the statement of another bitcoin maximalist. “I still hope to buy a Bugatti for 1 BTC,” said Jesse Powell, CEO of the Kraken crypto exchange. Given that the cost of one Bugatti sports car can exceed $5 million, it takes very little to fulfill this dream: “just” to wait for bitcoin to rise in price by 250 times.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 24, 2022, 05:03:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/clf847z.jpg)

- Charles Edwards, the founder of the Capriole Investments crypto fund, came to the conclusion based on the data of the Difficulty Feed indicator that the surrender period of bitcoin miners has passed. This, he said, is "a great signal to buy." According to his observations, the last phase of surrender is the third longest in history (71 days). It is longer than in 2021, but two days shorter than in 2018. “Historically, the surrender of bitcoin miners recorded major price lows and served as excellent buy signals,” Edwards said.

- Meltem Demirs, Strategy Director at CoinShares, spoke of what awaits the two top coins at the end of Q3. According to her, now there is a summer lull in the crypto market, as a significant part of people do not trade actively during the holidays. But despite this, “we have seen a lot of buying on drawdowns with regard to BTC. There is capital willing to accumulate bitcoin.”
Demirors does not expect a significant increase in the price of bitcoin until the end of September: “Until the end of the 3rd quarter, BTC does not have catalysts that could contribute to growth. It is highly dependent now on macroeconomics, which was observed in the example of a significant correlation with the shares of companies in the technology sector.”
As for ethereum, the CoinShares strategist believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely it will be on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.” (Recall that the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20.”

- For the first time since summer 2020, the average cost of a transaction in the BTC network has become less than $1, thus expanding the possibilities of using the asset as a means of payment. The need to pay significant fees when transferring small funds caused inconvenience and dissatisfaction among users. Previously, BTC transactions were slow and expensive, but improvements like the Lightning Network and Taproot give hope that this situation will never happen again. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions has decreased to $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020.

- Analyst Justin Bennett warned that BTC could face another sell-off. According to him, bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support level, which has kept the bullish sentiment over the past few months, and now the situation resembles a correction in May-June this year. “Bitcoin is currently looking almost identical to what we have seen a couple of times over the past few months, and it is moving below the bear flag.” According to Bennett, the BTC rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.
Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bennett believes that bitcoin’s reaction at $19,000 should determine its behavior for the rest of the year: “The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or if we get lower lows for the rest of the year.”
Crypto analyst and trader Neko believes the $21,700 level is key for bitcoin as it is the combined average breakeven of all bitcoin holders.

- Bitcoin on-chain activity has reached the same levels as at the end of the 2018-2019 bear market. This opinion was expressed by Glassnode analysts. However, despite the signs of the end of the “crypto winter”, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. “Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,” Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its average size has fallen below $1.
Despite this, the current consolidation phase of the bottom of the cycle is “most likely,” according to Glassnode. According to experts, it is at the current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth. However, the coin is still trading in the middle of the corrective pattern that has been present since June 18, and the further direction of the trend remains unclear.

- The cryptocurrency market has been under pressure in recent months, however, according to Bakkt CEO Gavin Michael, bitcoin is entrenched in the financial system forever. The specialist is sure that the first cryptocurrency will show significant growth in the coming years. Cryptocurrency platform Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors, and their interest in the market is only growing, according to Michael.

- JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of "something worse than a recession" in the US economy, with a 20-30% chance of this happening, which is a lot. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of a worsening recession, with which World Bank President David Malpass agrees. “The global economy is in danger again,” the financier says. “It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.”
Members of the crypto community tend to interpret these statements as a growth factor for the crypto market. For example, Anthony Scaramucci, founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, believes that the price of bitcoin could rise to $300,000 over the next 12-24 months. At the same time, the same Anthony Scaramucci said that bitcoin is still “not mature enough” to be considered a full-fledged hedging asset. The capitalization of the first cryptocurrency is now at around $410 billion, which, of course, is not enough to hedge the inflation of the world's major economies.

- Entrepreneur Kim Dotcom believes that a strong drop would be good for the cryptocurrency market, as it would lead to the exit of most speculators who are focused only on making money on short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate. In his opinion, the crypto sphere will get a “second wind” when digital assets will be perceived by participants precisely as financial instruments with great potential. Dotcom also spoke about the future of the global economy. In his opinion, the US will not cope with the burden of its financial problems, and the US dollar will depreciate greatly.
For reference: Kim Dotcom is a German-Finnish entrepreneur, the former owner of the largest file hosting service Megaupload, the owner of the new file sharing service Mega from January to September 2013. Kim Dotcom was sentenced in Germany for using insider information. He was arrested on January 19, 2012 in New Zealand at the request of the FBI, but was released on bail on February 22.

- Crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen expressed his opinion on what could be the most negative scenario for ethereum. “In my opinion,” the expert says, “this is the logarithmic regression band, which signals a possible area of ¬$400-$800. I think it is worth considering this opportunity as a great option for savings.”
At the same time, Cowen also noted the possibility of ETH moving in the other direction: “At the same time, ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary politics."

- Unknown hackers broke into the settings of General Bytes bitcoin ATMs on August 18, with the help of which they were able to transfer cryptocurrencies deposited through devices to their wallet. The incident was confirmed by company representatives. According to experts, the hackers "scanned open servers, including those hosted in the General Bytes cloud service." They added themselves as administrator from there. The hackers then proceeded to change the “buy” and “sell” settings so that any cryptocurrencies received by the bitcoin ATM would go to their wallet. General Bytes added that previous security checks had not revealed this vulnerability.
For reference: General Bytes owns and operates 8,827 Bitcoin ATMs in over 120 countries. The company headquarters is in Prague, Czech Republic. ATM customers can buy or sell over 40 different cryptocurrencies.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 29, 2022, 06:35:55 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for August 29 - September 02, 2022


EUR/USD: The Global Economy Is in Danger Again

So, EUR/USD broke through the key support level formed in 2016. It fixed a low at 0.9899 on Tuesday, August 23, the low the pair traded 20 years ago, in November-December 2002. The euro lost about 485 points to the dollar lover the past year alone.

Although not officially recognized, in fact the US economy has already plunged into recession, GDP continues to fall, although this movement has slowed down a bit: -0.9% in Q1 2022 and -0.6% in Q2. Quantitative tightening (QT) by the Fed and macroeconomic factors increase the chances of strengthening this process. Thus, JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon has warned that the country's economy could expect "something worse than a recession", and the probability of this event occurring is 20-30%.

The situation in the Eurozone is even worse, and macroeconomic conditions still do not bode well. According to forecasts, due to the energy crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions, Europe, and especially Germany, will face a very difficult winter.

“The world economy is in danger again,” said World Bank President David Malpass. “It is facing high inflation and slow growth at the same time. Even if a global recession is averted, the pain of stagflation could linger for several years.” This situation fuels the demand for safe-haven assets, and the US currency is traditionally one of them. The dollar index (DXY) is holding positions near multi-year highs around 108 points and, according to experts, may rise to 110 points.

The key event of the past week was the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole on August 25-27, which brought together almost the entire US financial elite. The key event at the symposium was to be the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, from whom market participants hoped to receive signals regarding the regulator's future plans. But he did not say anything new and significant, Powell's statements were a little more "hawkish" than before, but generally coincided with market expectations. Perhaps the head of the US Central Bank did not want to shock the markets in any of the directions. He did not name a specific figure by which the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) can raise the interest rate on September 21. Moreover, this decision may still be influenced by the forthcoming September reports on the labor market and consumer price dynamics.

The likelihood of a 50 basis point (bp) or 75 bp rate hike in September is about the same. Recall that the rate is at the level of 2.5% at the moment and the next increase will send it to the maximum level since 2008. And there is no doubt that it will happen, even though the CPI showed signs of slowing in July, falling to 8.5%, and inflation, as measured by the Core Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), fell from 0.6% to 0.1% in a month.

At the same time, the ECB may also raise borrowing costs by 50 bp at its meeting on September 8. The minutes of the last, July, meeting of the regulator showed that a very large number of members of the Board of Governors agreed on the advisability of raising the key rate from 0.5% to 1.0%. Moreover, according to Reuters, some ECB leaders, due to the deterioration of the inflation forecast, want to discuss the issue of raising the rate immediately by 0.75%. However, the decrease in the difference between the rates of the Fed and the ECB, although it may slightly support the euro, will not change the situation fundamentally, since the difference between the rates will still remain in favor of the dollar. As a result, the US currency will continue to strengthen, and, according to Wells Fargo analysts, it may peak in Q4 2022. Economists from Nordea expect that EUR/USD may fall to 0.9700 by the end of the year, a number of experts call 0.9600 as well.

Jerome Powell's speech took place on the evening of Friday, August 26, in the middle of the US trading session, when the Asian and European currency markets had already closed. Therefore, the final reaction to the words of the head of the Fed will become clear only on Monday, August 29. As for the last week, although its performance caused some volatility, the pair placed the last chord within the weekly range, slightly below its center at 0.9966.

60% of experts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 40% indicate the opposite direction to it. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. 100% side with the bears both among trend indicators and among oscillators. However, a quarter gives signals of it being oversold among the latter. The nearest bearish targets for EUR/USD are the July 14 low at 0.9950 and August 23 low at 0.9899. Note that the 0.9900-0.9930 area is also a strong 2002 support/resistance zone. For the bulls, the first priority is to rise above the 1.0000 parity level, after which it will be necessary to overcome the resistance of 1.0030, then 1.0090-1.0100, followed by the levels and zones of 1.0120, 1.0150-1.0180, 1.0200 and 1.0250-1.0270.

Statistics on the US consumer market will be released on Tuesday, August 30. We will have a whole series of data from the US labor market on the same day, as well as on Wednesday, August 31, Thursday, September 01 and Friday, September 02, including such important indicators as the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP). As for the European economy, data on unemployment in Germany and the consumer market of the Eurozone (CPI) will be received on Wednesday, August 31, and the value of the Business Activity Index in the manufacturing sector (PMI) and retail sales in Germany will become known on September 01.

GBP/USD: Very "Terrible Long-Term Outlook"

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We titled the review for GBP/USD “Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True” a week ago. But it turns out that the situation does not just look gloomy but inspires real horror for some experts. “The long-term chart of the pair,” economists at Citi Bank believe, “is looking really terrible right now. It can be viewed as a large double top forming as a continuation pattern, which promises a price drawdown to parity and possibly below it. […] There is no significant support now (beyond the March 2020 peak low just above 1.14) until the major lows set in 1985 at 1.0520. […] This month's close below 1.1760, if any, would be a bearish external month.”

GBP/USD closed last week at 1.1736. The pound continues to be pressured by the resignation of Prime Minister Boris Johnson, accompanied by a Forex and Stock Speculating scandal, and rising inflation. British energy regulator Ofgem has announced that average annual household electricity bills will rise by 80% from October and that the new Prime minister will need to take urgent action to deal with such skyrocketing prices.

The median forecast for the coming week looks fairly neutral. 45% of analysts side with the bulls, and 55% support the bearish scenario. The indicator readings on D1 look exactly the same as those of the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red, while 25% of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support is the August 23 low at 1.1716, followed by 1.1650, 1.1535 and the March 2020 lows in the zone 1.1400-1.1450. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1755, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200, 1.2275-1.2325 and 1.2400-1.2430.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, traders should take into account that there is a bank holiday in the country on Monday, August 29. Among the important events, we can note Thursday, September 01, when the August value of the UK Manufacturing PMI will be known.

USD/JPY: BOJ Policy Will Remain the Same

The USD/JPY pair has been moving in the sideways corridor 135.80-137.70 throughout the week. And if we talk about the results of the five-day period, the bulls won with a slight advantage: having started the week at 136.81, the pair ended it at 137.45. So, the neutral forecast was fully justified. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the movement of the pair to the east last time.

The latest survey of economists conducted by Bloomberg showed that inflation, which reached 3%, is unlikely to force the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) Haruhiko Kuroda to tighten monetary policy. While 3% is the highest level since 1991 (excluding years of tax hikes), it is still well below the 8.5% inflation rate in the US. Moreover, according to forecasts, inflation may reach 2.5% in the last three months of 2022, and be at the level of 1% at the end of next year.

As for a possible change in the monetary policy of the BOJ after the expiration of the term of Haruhiko Kuroda in April 2023, one cannot really count on this. And even more so, one should not expect an increase in interest rates at the next meeting of the Japanese regulator on September 22.

Based on the above, the majority of analysts (60%) believe that USD/JPY will again aim to test the July 14 high and take the height of 139.40. 30% of experts expect the yen to strengthen and a downtrend, and 10% give a neutral forecast. The indicators on D1 mirror the readings of the previous pairs: 100% of them point north, while 25% of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 137.00, 136.70, 136.15-136.30, 135.50, 134.70, 134.00-134.25, 132.85-133.00, 131.75-132.00, 131.00. Resistances are 137.70, 138.40, 138.50-139.00, and finally the July 14 high at 139.38. Bulls' next targets­ are 140.00 and 142.00.

No significant statistics on the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Dark Gray is the Colour

As of last week, BTC/USD was trading in a tight $20,900-$21,800 range most of the time ahead of Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole. It is in this zone that the cumulative average break-even of all bitcoin holders is located. But risky assets: stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) and quotes of digital currencies flew down on the evening of August 26. At the time of writing, the main cryptocurrency has already begun to react to the hawkish mood of the head of the Fed and recorded a weekly low at $20,534. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and stands at $0.991 trillion ($1.028 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped 6 points in seven days from 33 to 27 and is in the Extreme Fear zone. It is possible that these figures will become even worse on Saturday and Sunday, August 27-28.

The overall picture at the end of summer looks like this. In July, whales (with assets of over 10,000 BTC) and shrimps (less than 1 BTC) have been the main investment force driving bitcoin up. It is known that institutional investors play a leading role in the whale population, highly dependent on what is happening on Wall Street. Institutional operations with digital assets are carried out through cryptocurrency funds. And, judging by the statistics, the inflow of investments into these funds stopped at the beginning of August, and the whales returned to selling their BTC coins in the second week of the month: the outflow amounted to about $21 million.

However, according to Bakkt crypto platform CEO Gavin Michael, despite what is happening, bitcoin will show significant growth in the coming years. Bakkt provides digital assets and futures trading services for institutional investors and, according to Michael, they are closely watching what is happening and their interest in the market is constantly growing.

One of the key signs of future price growth is the increase in network activity and the emergence of new addresses. Bitcoin activity is now at the same level as it was at the end of the 2018-2019 bearish market, according to analytics firm Glassnode. However, despite the signs of the end of the “crypto winter”, network indicators still do not signal a reversal of the macroeconomic trend. The researchers note that the bitcoin network still does not record the presence of demand for cryptocurrency from investors, which is essential for a sustainable uptrend. “Recent price increases failed to attract a significant wave of new active users, which is especially noticeable among retail investors and speculators,” Glassnode notes. The lack of hype is also indicated by the falling fees in the bitcoin network. As noted, its size has fallen below $1. Currently, the average cost of BTC transactions is around $0.825, which is the lowest level since June 13, 2020. Despite this, Glassnode believes that it is at current price levels that bitcoin can try to form a solid foundation for future growth.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors believes that “BTC does not see catalysts that could contribute to growth until the end of Q3.” But despite this, “we saw a lot of buying on drawdowns in relation to BTC” in summer, which, in her opinion, indicates the presence of capital willing to accumulate this asset.

If Meltem Demirors is cautiously optimistic, analyst Justin Bennett is quite pessimistic and believes that BTC may face another sell-off. Bitcoin has gone below the diagonal support that has kept the bullish vibe for the past few months. According to Bennett, the coin's rate fell by more than 30% the last two times in such situations.

Although the analyst is bearish, he predicts a small short-term rise in BTC to $23,000, which should be retested as resistance. Then a decline to $19,000 is expected. Bitcoin’s reaction at this level should, according to Bennett, determine its behavior until the end of the year: “The question will be whether we see a rebound and higher lows, or get lower lows for the rest of the year.”

As for ethereum, Meltem Demirors believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.”

Another well-known strategist, Benjamin Cowen, spoke out about the ethereum. In his opinion, if the most negative scenario is implemented, the logarithmic regression band indicates a possible fall in the ETH/USD pair to the ­$400-$800 area. Cowen calls such a drop an excellent opportunity to replenish Ethereum reserves. At the same time, he does not exclude the possibility of the altcoin moving up: “ETH can demonstrate a rally if the transition to PoS goes without significant problems (you need to be aware that some software updates do not always go smoothly) and the Fed changes its monetary policy.” (As a reminder, the ethereum network upgrade is scheduled for September 15-20. So, it won't take long to wait.).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 31, 2022, 03:16:11 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- A covert mining campaign has allegedly infected thousands of computers in 11 countries around the world with malware. The company is associated with Turkish software developer Nitrokod, which has been active since 2019. The company offers supposedly free programs, the official desktop versions of which do not exist. This was reported by experts at Check Point Research (CPR).
The attackers installed covert mining utilities into free apps based on popular services like Google Translate or YouTube Music. The popularity of the underlying source ensured high positions in the search results. The software is distributed through well-known free software platforms like Softpedia or uptodown.
Attackers managed to go unnoticed for a long time due to the complex and multi-stage infection. The hidden module for installing the mining utility was activated only a few weeks after installing the program on the computer.
The malware injection process was divided into six time-separated stages, disguised as updates. At all stages, the installer removed traces in the logs, making it difficult to detect.

- With the exception of a few dozen tokens, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the real options for using digital currencies are underdeveloped. This opinion was expressed by Umar Farooq, the head of the Onyx blockchain division of the financial conglomerate JPMorgan. He noted that regulation has lagged behind the growth of the industry. This deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market.
The CEO of Onyx also believes that the technologies of the crypto industry are not mature enough to be used, for example, to conduct high-value transactions between institutions or to place such products as tokenized bank deposits.

- The turnover of cryptocurrency investment products ($901 million) fell to the lowest level since October 2020 from August 20 to 26, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. Such estimates were given by CoinShares analysts. “While […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects, we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. It seems to us that caution is associated with the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed,” the experts explained.

- Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.
“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

- Analyst Justin Bennett decided to warn crypto investors of a possible sharp correction. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”
“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.
Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

- A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.
Ethereum has been largely outperforming bitcoin lately as sentiment in the ETH community remains optimistic due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the recent unfavorable macroeconomic conditions.
Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

- CryptoQuant experts note that the fall in the price of bitcoin below the $20,000 threshold woke up the “ancient” bitcoin wallets that were active 7-10 years ago. Historically, a surge in the activity of such wallets happens when the first cryptocurrency makes unprotected movements or reaches long-awaited targets or support levels. Amid the panic in the cryptocurrency market, long-term holders can join the sellers and start dumping their holdings to avoid further losses. This trend is usually one of the first signs of capitulation among investors.
It is reported that 5,000 bitcoins are currently in motion from 10-year-old addresses. Despite the significance of the transaction, this is a relatively small volume. Similar wallets have Previously activated up to 100,000 BTC in a short period, creating huge pressure on the market. But even with a larger amount, there is no reason to panic, since the transfer can only be a redistribution of funds. During periods of high volatility, whales tend to spread their assets across different wallets in order to manage them more efficiently.

- According to Steve Huffman, CEO of Reddit, there are a lot of incomprehensible and useless terms in the cryptocurrency market. Because of this, it becomes increasingly difficult to understand for both experienced and novice traders and investors.
As Steve Huffman pointed out, almost no one in his company uses specific cryptocurrency terminology. It is incomprehensible to customers, completely confusing them. In his opinion, all this hype with complex terms that developers use only hides their illiteracy and misunderstanding of the cryptocurrencies basics.
The reason is probably that the crypto market is becoming more and more like a classic stock market. As a result, bureaucratization, expressed in incomprehensible terms, begins to dominate more and more. Many regulators from different countries introduce their own rules, developers try to show that they are smarter than competitors, startups write white papers so that investors can see that they understand all the intricacies. And it is almost impossible to read the laws dedicated to cryptocurrencies, they are so overloaded with mysterious terminology.

- Jordan Belfort, former stockbroker, commonly known as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, has admitted that his initial bitcoin zero prediction was wrong. “At the time, I really hated cryptocurrencies and I confirm everything I said about them in 2017, except for one thing: I was wrong about bitcoin zeroing out. Here I lacked attention, because it seemed to me that all digital assets are a scam,” Belfort said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
The crypto winter of 2018 changed his mind. Moreover, the former stockbroker said that he came to understand that bitcoin harbors the qualities of digital gold. In his opinion, if cryptocurrencies are regulated, it is likely that BTC will start trading as a store of value, and not as growth stocks.

- John Wu, the head of the Avalanche (AVAX) platform, believes that despite the fall in the cryptocurrency market due to the correlation with stock assets, crypto investors expect “cosmic profits”. “The market needs to understand that in the crypto-asset space, investors will receive more than the average return on the market, the so-called alpha. There are very good reasons for this. The market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has fallen, but stablecoins have not. This suggests that many investors hold them and are ready to deploy stablecoins in the market.”

- Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary questions bitcoin's ability to rise above the $25,000 price level under the current conditions. O'Leary has drawn attention to the fact that the price of bitcoin is stagnating, as there is no regulation that allows institutional investors to invest in this sector. And without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class.
“You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it. But I believe that we will get the regulation within the next two or three years. And then, finally, we will be able to achieve institutional participation.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 02, 2022, 02:28:33 PM
August 2022 Results: Gold Trading Brings Gold Medal to NordFX Trader

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in August 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

A client from Southeast Asia, account No. 1634XXX, rose to the top, “gold” step of the podium in August, earning 32,118 USD on transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
The second place was taken by their compatriot, account No. 1623XXX, who made transactions on a variety of pairs, including EUR/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/USD, and earned 24,858 USD.

A trader from East Asia closes the TOP-3 with a result of 16,257 USD. This solid result was achieved thanks to operations with the XAU/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

In CopyTrading, the “veteran” signals KennyFXPRO - Journey of $205 to $5,000 and KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K continue to move profits up, slowly, but confidently. The first of them brought the profit to 401% in 545 days (374% a month ago), the second one reached 192% profit in 485 days (178% a month ago). Recall that the maximum drawdown for these signals was 67% and 45%, respectively, and occurred quite a long time ago, in mid-October 2021. After that, such unpleasant "surprises" were not observed. But the third signal from the same family, KennyFxPro - The Cannon Ball increased its drawdown from 7% to 30%, its profit for the month rose from 33% to 38%.

As for the BSTAR signal (profit 48%/max drawdown 14%/195 days of life), which we also mentioned in the previous review, there were no trades on it in August. Perhaps its author took a break during the summer holidays.

As for startups, as usual, there are quite a lot of them. Of these, we note the signals JANUNGFX (98%/29%/37), Andy EU250 (54%/25%/38), NORD GOLDEN_DUCK (50%/30%/48) and PT_Bot Scalping (48%/30%/61). Once again, we would like to remind you that rather aggressive trading and a short lifespan of signals are additional risk factors and require special caution when subscribing.

In the PAMM service, the TOP-3, or rather TOP-4, has not changed over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. The capital on on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 134% in 584 days. Also among the leaders were: TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account, which showed a profit of 97% in 515 days, NKFX-Ninja 136 account, which since June 11, 2021. brought a return of 88%, and COEX.Investment - Treis with a profit of 45% in 304 days. 
All these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%. Another account attracted attention, KennyFxPro - The Multi 3000 v2, which showed a yield of 16% in 66 days of life with a drawdown of less than 5%.

TOP 3 IB partners of NordFX received the following rewards in August:
- the largest commission, 11,265 USD, was accrued to a partner from East Asia, account No. 1259XXX;
- the second, as in July, is a partner from South Asia, account No. 1507ХХХ, who received 7,248 USD;
- and finally, a partner from South America, account No. 1274XXX, closes the TOP-3, who received 6,313 USD as a reward.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 04, 2022, 11:49:16 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 05 - 09, 2022


EUR/USD: Rather Boring Week

The past week was, boring, so to say. The macro statistics released from August 30 to September 2, although versatile, turned out to be quite close to market expectations. For example, the harmonized consumer price index in Germany, was 8.8%, with the forecast of 8.8%. The consumer price index in the Eurozone amounted to 9.1% instead of the expected 9.0%. The index of business activity in the US manufacturing sector (PMI) did not change at all over the month and amounted to 52.8 (forecast 52.0), and the number of new jobs created outside the American agricultural sector (NFP) did not go far from the expected either, 315K against 300K. As a result, EUR/USD was moving along the parity line of 1.0000 all five days, fluctuating in the range of 0.9910-1.0078, and completed the five-day period at the level of 0.9955.

Market participants are likely to be much more active next week. The key day will certainly be Thursday September 08, when the ECB will decide on the deposit rate and make a statement and comments on its monetary policy. Inflation in the Eurozone rose even more in August: from 8.9% to 9.1%. Therefore, many experts, such as the strategists of the international financial group Nordea, believe that the European regulator will raise the rate by 75 basis points at once.

“Considering that the rate increase by 75 b.p. is not fully priced in financial markets and that the tone of the press conference is likely to be hawkish,” Nordea economists write, “we expect the first reaction from markets to be higher yields, wider bond spreads and a stronger euro.”

If we talk about the average forecast, it looks as follows at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, September 02. 50% of experts vote for the fact that EUR/USDwill move south in the near future, 35% vote for its growth, the remaining 15% are waiting for the side trend to continue. The readings of the indicators on D1 give much more definite signals. Both among trend indicators and among oscillators, all 100% side with the bears. However, 10% among the latter give signals that the pair is oversold.

The nearest bearish target for EUR/USD is the 0.9900-0.9910 zone. Note that the 0.9900-0.9930 area is also a strong 2002 support/resistance zone. Apart from the parity level of 1.0000, if the euro strengthens, the first priority for the bulls will be to rise above the resistance of 1.0030. After that, it will be necessary to overcome the level of 1.0080 and consolidate in the zone of 1.0100-1.0280, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

Among the upcoming week's events, apart from the ECB meeting, we can single out the publication of data on retail sales in the Eurozone on Monday, September 05. Monday is a holiday in the United States, the country celebrates Labor Day. We are waiting for data on business activity (ISM) in the US services sector on Tuesday, September 06, and GDP indicators in Germany and the Eurozone will be published on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak and data on unemployment in the United States will be published on the same day.

GBP/USD: On the Way to a 37-Year Low

We titled our review of the GBP/USD pair "Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound Continue to Come True" two weeks ago. The past headline sounded like "Very Terrible Long-Term Outlook" We can not say anything cheerful this week either: the pound is still one of the weakest G10 currencies, which is affected by the worsening prospects for the UK economy.

The British Chamber of Commerce (BCC) estimates that the UK is already in the midst of a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023. According to the Financial Times, the number of British households living in fuel poverty will more than double in January to reach 12 million people. And the new prime minister will have to take urgent action to avoid an economic disaster. Just what action? It seems that no one knows yet.

In such a situation, the anxiety of market participants about the candidacy of the next prime minister, whose name will be announced on Monday, September 05, is quite understandable. Recall that the current Prime Minister Boris Johnson has resigned after a Forex and Stock Speculating scandal involving one of his cabinet members.

Against this gloomy background, the pound has been falling since August 01. Having broken through support at 1.1500, it set two-year lows (1.1495) last week. As for the final chord of the five-day period, it sounded a little higher, at around 1.1510. Most experts (55%) believe that GBP/USD will continue to fall in the coming weeks. And it will not stop even if the Bank of England raises interest rates by 75 bp on September 15. 30% hope for a correction and 15% have taken a neutral position.

According to currency strategists at UOB Group, the next significant support level after 1.1500 is in the March 2020 lows. “However,” the specialists note, “short-term conditions are deeply oversold, and it is not yet clear if this major support will be within reach this time.” As for a possible correction to the north, the UOB believes that only a break above 1.1635 will indicate that the British currency is not ready to fall further.

Note that the March 2020 lows (1.1409-1.1415) are at the same time the lows for the last 37 (!) years. The GBP/USD pair fell lower to 1.0800, only in 1985. As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1585-1.1625, 1.1700, 1.1750, 1.1800-1.1825, 1.1900 and 1.2000. The readings of the indicators on D1 are similar to the readings for the EUR/USD pair: all 100% are colored red. However, here a third of the oscillators signal that the pair is oversold, which often indicates a possible correction.

The United Kingdom's economic calendar can mark Monday 05 and Tuesday 06 September when the UK Services and Manufacturing PMIs and the Composite Index (PMI) will be released. A hearing on the inflation report will take place on Wednesday, September 07, but it will be more informative, and no important decisions will be made that day.

USD/JPY: Higher, Higher and Higher

Most analysts (60%) had been expecting a new test of the July 14 high and taking the 139.40 high last week. This is exactly what happened. USD/JPY rose to the height of 140.79, thus reaching a 24-year high. The weekly trading session finished at 140.20.

The reason for another record is still the same: the divergence between the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major central banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY.

Bank of America Global Research economists expect USD/JPY to remain at high levels until a major correction in Q4 2022. Moreover, such a correction is possible only if inflation in the US shows a steady slowdown. “We expect USD/JPY to end 2022 at 127,” these analysts say. "However, the structural weakness of the Japanese yen should resurface in the longer term."

At the moment, the majority of analysts (50%) believe that USD/JPY will continue its movement to the north. Fortunately, it still has room to grow: it was worth more than 350 yen for 1 dollar back in 1971. 30% of experts expect the bulls to take a break in the area of the highs reached, and another 20% are counting on a corrective moving to the south.

For indicators on D1, the readings mirror the readings for the previous pair: 100% of them point north, while a third of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. The primary task of the bulls is to update the high of September 02 and rise above 140.80. The next goal is 142.00. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.70, 136.70-137.00, 136.15-136.30, 135.50, 134.70, 134.00-134.25.

As for the economic events of the coming week, we can highlight the release of data on Japan's GDP on Thursday, September 08.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: All Hope for Ethereum

(https://i.imgur.com/f5GTjOQ.jpg)

The BTC/USD pair was moving in a narrow range along the $21.330 horizon for a week before Jerome Powell's speech on August 26. The speech of the head of the Fed collapsed risky assets, the stock and crypto markets flew down. However, if the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices continued to fall throughout the past week, bitcoin was able to stay in the $20,000 ($19,518-20,550) region, and ethereum even grew in anticipation of the transition to the PoS mechanism.

As a result, instead of the usual correlation of BTC/USDwith technology stocks, we could observe its correlation with the main major forex pair, EUR/USD these days, which moved sideways along the parity line of 1.0000. A slight recovery on Friday, September 2 was caused by the publication of data on unemployment in the US. But the pair did not go beyond the weekly trading range and bitcoin is trading at $19,930 at the time of writing the review. The total capitalization of the crypto market has fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and stands at $0.976 trillion ($0.991 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 2 points in seven days, from 27 to 25, and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

Over the past 10 years, it was only in 2018 that investors suffered more serious losses. And the pressure on the crypto market continues to persist, primarily due to the tightening of the monetary policy of the US Central Bank. According to CoinShares, the turnover of cryptocurrency investment products fell in the last decade of August to the lowest level since October 2020, and the outflow of funds continued for the third week in a row. “Although […] part of this dynamic is due to seasonal effects,” the specialists explain, “we also see continued apathy after the recent price decline. We think the caution is due to the Fed's hawkish rhetoric." In addition to speculators and casual "tourists", medium-term BTC holders (with a coin history of more than 5 months) began to leave the market.

The ranks of crypto enthusiasts are rapidly thinning out. Bitcoin is “a purely speculative asset with no utility,” due to the lack of technological progress. This was stated by Justin Bons, the founder and chief investment officer of the Cyber Capital fund. He used to be a vigorous advocate for bitcoin, but changed his point of view, calling it “one of the worst cryptocurrencies”. “The world has moved forward. It used to be said that digital gold would simply embrace the best technology. This thesis, obviously, has not been fully confirmed. Bitcoin doesn’t have smart contracts, privacy technologies, or scaling breakthroughs,” Bons explained.

“The economic properties of bitcoin are incredibly weak as well. It competes with cryptocurrencies that can achieve negative inflation, high storage capacity and utility, such as post-merger ETH.” “People, for the most part, invest in the first cryptocurrency only because they believe in the price increase. They act on the same principle as participants in Ponzi schemes,” the founder of Cyber Capital believes.

Umar Farooq, the head of Onyx's blockchain division, which is part of the JPMorgan conglomerate, also voiced a lot of criticism against the crypto market. In his opinion, most of the crypto assets on the market are “junk”, and the lack of full regulation of the industry deters many traditional financial institutions from participating in the market. In addition, the technologies and practical applications of digital currencies are not well developed. Because of this, for example, they cannot be used as products such as tokenized bank deposits.

Investor and broadcaster Kevin O'Leary also believes that the price of bitcoin is stagnating due to lack of regulation. As a result, institutionalists cannot invest in this sector. “You need to use the trillions of dollars that sovereign wealth manages, but they are not going to buy bitcoin because there is no regulation,” says O'Leary. “People forget that 70% of the world's wealth is in pension and sovereign wealth funds. Accordingly, if they are not allowed to buy this asset class, they do not bet on it.”

However, the investor believes that regulation will still appear within the next two to three years. In the meantime, without a regulatory framework, cryptocurrency cannot be considered a full-fledged asset class, and bitcoin is unlikely to rise above $25,000.

Analyst Justin Bennett's forecast looks much bleaker. According to him, the recent sell-off in the stock market will inevitably lead to a fall in the bitcoin rate: “The stock sale that has taken place confirms a major bull trap and is likely to cause prolonged decline. That is, the S&P500 will fall by about 16%, and BTC by 30%-40%, to the level of $12,000.”

“BTC is testing the 2015 trend line again,” the analyst writes. -"Do not believe those who consider it a healthy phenomenon. The two long bottom wicks of 2015 and 2020 indicating strong demand are worth looking out for. This time we are seeing exactly the opposite.” According to Bennett, the main target for the bears is the pre-COVID-19 high of $3,400.

Regarding ethereum, Bennett believes that the asset is forming the top of the “head and shoulders” pattern on the chart with a downward target near $1,000: “The right shoulder of this pattern is starting to form and ETH’s drop below $1,500 is the confirmation.”

A similar scenario is given by Bloomberg analysts. They are also predicting ETH to fall below $1,000 despite its recent comeback from the August 29 lows. This is largely due to the volatility of the ethereum price in bearish market conditions. “Technical indicators of momentum and price trends show that the token’s decline from a peak near $2,000 in mid-August to the current zone near $1,500 is likely to continue,” Bloomberg said in their report.

Sentiment in the ETH community has remained optimistic lately due to the upcoming merger. However, this has not provided the asset with any immunity to the latest unfavorable macroeconomic conditions, Bloomberg analysts write. Ethereum has established promising support on its 50-day moving average. However, after the market fell on August 25-26, the asset has been below this support, which indicates the risks of a further collapse and a retest of support around $1,000.

And some optimism at the end of the review. According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 15 to 20. So we will find out soon which of the predictions will be correct.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 07, 2022, 04:02:26 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/NAoKYqt.jpg)

- The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,500 on September 7. Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.
In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom. The long-term prospects of the first cryptocurrency, according to Glassnode analysts, remain constructive. This is confirmed by the increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers.

- Analyst Kevin Swanson agrees with Glassnode's alarming prediction. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.
Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

- Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black, if below 0, then more investors are in losses).
At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable, since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

- A popular Twitter expert known as FatManTerra came up with a fake investment scheme as part of an experiment and raised more than $100,000 in bitcoins. On September 5, he tweeted about allegedly gaining access to a “highly profitable bitcoin farm” from an unnamed fund, and invited subscribers to join the farming. FatManTerra did not deliberately disclose additional details of the investment scheme, however, even without this information, he managed to collect this substantial amount in just a couple of hours.
“I want to send a clear message to everyone in the crypto world,” he wrote after the experiment, “anyone who offers you easy money is lying. Influencers who sell fast trading training or offer great investment opportunities are cheating on you.”
FatManTerra announced that he had returned all the money to users, and added that he had been inspired for the experiment by the Lady of Crypto account, which was accused of promoting dubious investment schemes among 257,500 subscribers.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin was sure that the previous cryptocurrency bull market would end sooner or later. “I'm actually surprised that the collapse didn't happen sooner. Crypto bubbles usually last about 6-9 months after breaking the previous peak. This is followed by a rapid fall quite quickly. This time, the bull market lasted almost a year and a half,” Buterin said.
According to him, this is a reflection of the “cyclical dynamics” inherent in cryptocurrencies. “When prices go up, a lot of people say that this is the new paradigm and the future, and when they go down, people start saying it’s doomed, and they are fundamentally wrong.” According to Buterin, periodic price downturns help to “identify clearly” the problems in the industry and as well as unstable business models. The latter thrive during the boom in the market due to the influx of new money, but their model stops working during the downturn. He cited the recent collapse of the Terra project and the BitConnect investment scam that collapsed in 2017 as examples.
Buterin acknowledged that bearish phases have a negative impact on the design and development of protocols, as it is difficult to support sprawling teams financially. “But I don’t claim to [have invented] a cure for these dynamics,” he concluded.

- Hackers stole 119.2 ETH (about $185,000) from the crypto wallet of famous actor Bill Murray. The funds had been received for the sale at a charity auction of the NFT “Beer with Bill Murray”, which gives the right to drink beer with the actor. The proceeds were to be donated to a non-profit organization helping veterans and rescuers.
Murray's team was partially successful in thwarting the break-in and protecting about 800 NFTs in the actor's collection and is now working with police and analytics firm Chainalysis to track down the intruders.

- According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.
The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that  a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. The Merge procedure is scheduled for the period between September 13 and 15, 2022, however, the preparatory part of the event will take place on September 07.
This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

- Experts of the u.today portal noted that September 13, 2022 will be a key date for the cryptocurrency market, not only due to the merge of Ethereum (ETH) networks. There is one more factor. Fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency.
U.today suggested that if the Merge update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 08, 2022, 02:22:09 PM
New NordFX Super Lottery: 202 Prizes in 2022 The Next Draw Is on October 6. Grab Your Chance!

(https://i.imgur.com/Rlz3n3I.jpg)

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Another advantage is that lottery winners receive their winnings not as bonuses, but as real money, which, if they wish, can be either used in further trading or withdrawn without any restrictions.

Visit the NordFX website for more details. You can become a participant of the Super Lottery 2022 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 11, 2022, 02:50:28 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 12 - 16, 2022


EUR/USD: Two Events of the Week

The past week was marked by two significant events. First, the EUR/USD pair updated its 20-year low on Tuesday, September 06 once again, falling to 0.9863. And then the European Central Bank raised its key interest rate for the first time in its history by 75 basis points (bp) to 1.25% on Thursday, September 08, accompanying this act with very hawkish comments.

We must say that both events did not come as a surprise to the market and, on the whole, were in line with the forecasts that we voiced in the previous review. The pair's rebound to the upside following the ECB's decision was not surprising either. Having risen by about 250 points, it peaked at 1.0113 on September 9. This was followed by a correction to the north, and the pair finished at 1.0045

Despite such a hawkish move, the ECB is still far from the US Fed: the current rate on the dollar is 2.50%, which is exactly twice as high as on the euro. But this is not all. If the September meeting of the European regulator has already passed, its American counterpart still has it ahead. And if the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) raises the rate on September 21 once again, the dollar will go even further into the lead. And the probability of such a step is close to 100%.

It is still difficult to predict what both Central Banks will do next month, October. But there is a feeling that the ECB may, at least for a while, lower its hawkish attitude to understand how the rate hike has affected inflation and the state of the economy. The factor of the energy crisis in Europe, caused by anti-Russian sanctions, is still playing against the euro. However, the leadership of the European Union is taking active steps to reduce energy dependence on Russia on the eve of winter. And judging by the fact that the Eurozone GDP growth published on September 7 turned out to be higher than both the previous value and the forecast (4.1% versus 3.9%), stagflation may be avoided.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 09, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts stand for the fact that EUR/USD will continue to move south in the near future, 30% vote for its growth and the strengthening of the euro, the remaining 15% predict a side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. The readings of indicators on D1 do not give any certainty. Among trend indicators, the ratio of forces is 50% to 50%. Among the oscillators, there is a slight advantage on the green side, 50%, 35% are on the red side, and 15% are colored in neutral gray.

The main trading range of the last three weeks was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider, 0.9863-1.0113. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0130, then 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

There will be quite a lot of important events in the coming week. Consumer Price Indices (CPI) in Germany and the US will be published on Tuesday, September 13. CPI is an indicator of consumer inflation and reflects changes in the level of prices for groups of goods and services in August. The September ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany will be released the same day. Another batch of economic statistics will arrive on Wednesday, September 14 and Thursday, September 15 in the form of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and data on retail sales and unemployment in the US. We are waiting for the publication of the Eurozone CPI, as well as the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 16.

GBP/USD: British Pound's Anti Record

(https://i.imgur.com/E17NoOL.jpg)

We titled our previous review of GBP/USD "On the Way to a 37-Year Low". Recall that the lows of March 2020 (1.1409-1.1415) were at the same time the lows for the last 37 years. And now, this offensive forecast for the British currency came true: the pair reached a local bottom at around 1.1404 on September 07, breaking the 2020 anti-record. Then the euro, strengthening against the dollar, pulled up other currencies, including the pound. As a result, GBP/USD rose to 1.1647, and the five-day period closed at 1.1585.

An important event on August 7 was the hearing of the UK Inflation Report and the speeches by members of the Monetary Policy Committee, headed by the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey. As predicted, officials reaffirmed their commitment to tightening monetary policy (QT). Their statements strengthened the market's expectations that the regulator could raise the rate from 1.75% to 2.50% at its September meeting. This meeting was originally scheduled for next Thursday. However, due to mourning for Queen Elizabeth II, it was postponed for a week and will take place on September 22, after the US Federal Reserve makes its decision on the rate.

If the forecast for a growth in the interest rate on the pound comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the UK economy, which already causes serious concerns. The UK is already amid a recession and inflation will hit 14% this year, according to the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC). And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Of course, investors are very worried about whether the new prime minister, Liz Truss, will be able to cope with the deplorable situation in which the country's economy has found itself. Having failed to fully recover from Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom has faced unprecedented inflation, a decline in the population's ability to pay and a catastrophic collapse of the national currency.

The median forecast for the coming week looks fairly neutral. A third of analysts side with the bulls, another third side with the bears, and another third have taken a neutral position. The indicator readings on D1 are mostly colored red. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 70% to 30% in favor of the red ones. For oscillators, 65% point south and 35% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1720, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2050-1.2075, 1.2160-1.2200. The nearest support, apart from the 1.1475-1.1510 zone, is the September 07 low 1.1404. One can only guess to what levels the pair can fall further. Given the increased volatility, it is probably not worth focusing on either round values, or Fibonacci levels, or any figures of graphical analysis.

With regard to the economic statistics of the United Kingdom, data on GDP and output should arrive on Monday, September 12, that on the level of wages and unemployment in the country will be published on Tuesday, September 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Wednesday, September 14, and retail sales in the UK will be known on Friday, September 16. The source of all this data is the Office for National Statistics, so the schedule for their publication is subject to change due to mourning for Elizabeth II.

USD/JPY: Astronaut Pair

USD/JPY rose to a high of 140.79 on September 2, thus reaching a 24-year high. Most analysts were waiting for another rise and taking new heights from the past week. This is exactly what happened: the pair soared to the level of 144.985 on Wednesday, September 07. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 142.65.

Describing the cause of what happened is quite simple using Copy Paste on the keyboard, it is enough to take any of our reviews over the past couple of years. That's what we're doing right now. So, the reason is the same: the divergence between the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and other major Central Banks, primarily the US Federal Reserve. Unlike the American hawks, the Japanese regulator still intends to pursue an ultra-soft policy, which is aimed at stimulating the national economy through quantitative easing (QE) and a negative interest rate (-0.1%). This divergence is a key factor for the further weakening of the yen and the growth of USD/JPY. And the situation will not change until BOJ raises the rate.

And why should the Japanese Central Bank raise it? The published data on the country's GDP (Q2) look quite good: the indicator rose from 0.5% to 0.9%, while the forecast was 0.7%. Of course, inflation in Japan has exceeded the 2% target, which is bad. But this is almost nothing compared to inflation in the US, the Eurozone or the UK. So there is no need to worry too much here. So Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that price increases will be extinguished not by tightening monetary policy, but, on the contrary, by injecting 5.5 billion yen from the budget reserve. In addition, the minister said that he is "closely monitoring the movement of the exchange rate", that "it is important that it moves steadily" and that "abrupt movements of the currency are undesirable."

Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan, said almost the same thing, word for word, on Friday, September 09, after his meeting with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. His main theses are as follows: "I discussed the foreign exchange market with Kishida", "Fast movements in the exchange rate are undesirable", "We will closely monitor the movement of exchange rates."

We do not know what is so positive in the words of these high officials, but, as the media write, thanks to them the yen received support, and now 45% of experts vote for its further strengthening. Another 45% remain neutral, and only 10% are waiting for further growth of USD/JPY. The indicators on D1 have an absolute advantage on the side of the greens. Among oscillators there are 100% of them, among trend indicators - 90%, and only 10%­ on the side of the reds.

The nearest resistance is 143.75. The bulls' task No.1 is to renew the high of September 07 and gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it looks like it's starting to come true. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important events in the economic life of Japan are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Main Week of the Calendar

Last week was marked by another wave of sales. The bitcoin rate approached the June 19 low ($17,600), falling to $18,543 on September 7. At the same time, Ethereum fell below $1,500, an important support/resistance level, and recorded a local bottom at $1,488. This dynamic is primarily due to the hawkish rhetoric of the Fed and, as a result, the strengthening of the US currency. However, later, against the background of the ECB meeting, both coins won back their losses in full, and even seriously increased in quotes. At the time of writing this review, on Friday evening, September 9, they are trading as follows: BTC/USD at $21.275, ETH/USD at $1,715. The total capitalization of the crypto market has risen slightly above the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $1.042 trillion ($0.976 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen by another 3 points in seven days from 25 to 22 and is in the Extreme Fear zone.

According to the TradingView service, the ratio of ethereum to bitcoin has grown to its highest values for 2022. It was fixed at 0.0843 in the afternoon of September 06. The last time such a level was noted was in December 2021. 1 BTC is worth about 12.4 ETH at current values.

The ETH community has linked the growth of this indicator to the upcoming network merger. Many users have been talking for almost a year now that a revolution will happen in this tandem sooner or later. Then ethereum will overtake bitcoin in terms of capitalization and value. Recall that the update of the ethereum network is scheduled for the period from September 13 to 20. This merge is likely to be the most important event of 2022 in the cryptocurrency industry. This is because it will bring several key changes to how the network works. The main ones are a 99.99% reduction in energy consumption and a decrease in the emission of the ETH coin.

According to a number of experts, if the transition to the Ethereum 2.0 network and the implementation of the Proof-of-Stake mechanism go as planned, this altcoin can rise sharply in price and pull the entire market up with it, primarily its main competitor, bitcoin. But that's if everything goes smoothly and according to plan. Or maybe not. So, it became known on Wednesday, September 07 that the ethereum network encountered a problem after the Bellatrix update. The blockchain is seeing a noticeable spike in “number of missed blocks,” the frequency with which the network fails to process blocks of transactions scheduled for validation. This figure has increased by about 1700%. Before the update, it was about 0.5%, and after the Bellatrix it rose to 9%.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors believes that investors are ignoring the general situation in the market, amid the hype around the transition of ETH to the PoS mechanism. And that, despite the benefits of the merger for the ethereum network itself, it is not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “While there is significant enthusiasm in the crypto community for a merger that can rapidly reduce supply and increase demand, the reality is more prosaic: investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. I believe that significant amounts of new capital are unlikely to enter ETH. There are certain risks that need to be played out in the market because the merger has been used as an excuse to buy on the rumor and sell on the news. How will these risks be played out? Most likely on the institutional side or through trading, but through options rather than outright purchases of the asset.”

Experts of u.today portal also remind about macro statistics. They note that September 13 could be an important date, not only because of the merger of the ethereum networks. There is one more factor. As we wrote above, fresh data from the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on the same day. According to analysts, this information will help investors understand what is happening with the inflation rate in the country and will directly affect the financial markets, including cryptocurrency. If the network update does not cause problems with volatility, liquidity and security, and the CPI shows a decrease in inflation, then a bullish momentum can be predicted, otherwise the crypto market will continue to fall.

Glassnode allowed BTC to fall further to support around $17,000. The specialists do not rule out such a wave of capitulation due to an increase in the proportion of "unprofitable" coins at the disposal of speculators (who traded in the previous 155 days). It rose to 96% (3.11 million BTC out of 3.24 million BTC). The situation was aggravated by the suspension of the bearish rally from June 19 to August 15. The rise in the price to $25,000 and its subsequent fall in just a few days transferred half of the speculators' coin reserves to the category of “unprofitable”.

In the short term, it is the stress testing of speculators that will determine the disposition in the market, since most of the on-chain activity was carried out by them. Three such episodes in the current downtrend had led earlier to sales with a short planning horizon and the subsequent formation of a local bottom.

Analyst Kevin Swenson agrees with Glassnode's alarming outlook. He issued a warning about a possible downward movement of bitcoin as well. The US dollar soared to its highest level in 20 years, while bitcoin fell below the diagonal support that kept the asset afloat from its June lows of $17,600, Swanson said. Swanson admits further bearish scenario for bitcoin as the DXY dollar index is still in a strong uptrend.

Another expert, Naeem Aslam, believes that the fall will not be to the level of $18,000 or $15,000, but much lower, to about $12,000.

Cryptoanalyst Nicholas Merten does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon collapse to a strong support level in the range of $12,000-14,000. He made this forecast based on the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL), which shows the state of the positions of BTC holders. (When NUPL is above 0, most investors are in the black. If below 0, then more investors suffer losses).

At the same time, Merten believes that the BTC movement can be unpredictable since the asset has never been traded during a period of tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. He also doubts the imminent return to quantitative easing (QE) by the US Federal Reserve, as it was in the past. “I would like to note,” the expert writes, “that there has never been a 50% recession, almost depressive correction or a bearish stock market in all 10 years during which BTC has been liquidly traded on exchanges, . There were typical bear markets around 20%, and then the Fed came to the rescue and saved the day. But the Fed cannot do the same now. If you print money and try to save the day, you can seriously exacerbate the problem of inflation.”

And some positive at the end of the review. Despite the fall in the capitalization of the crypto market and the bankruptcy of a number of large projects, the bitcoin hash rate is close to its historical maximum. The situation seems inconsistent with the fall of the main cryptocurrency by more than 70% from the maximum, and the collapse of the shares of public mining companies. However, miners continue to introduce new capacities. Analysts attribute this to the optimism of some companies and the readiness for market turbulence of others. If we add to this the Glassnode data, which observes an increase in the number of coins at the disposal of hodlers, then we can hope that the crypto winter will still be followed by spring.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 14, 2022, 02:26:54 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/JVNJpEp.jpg)

- Inflation in the US in August that was published on September 13, has amounted to 8.3%. Although this is less than the previous indicator of 8.5%, the figures have not lived up to market expectations. The forecast had assumed a decline to 8.1%. Market participants decided that the US Federal Reserve will tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates in such a situation. It is expected that the rate will rise by at least another 0.75% next week. As a result, against this background, the dollar began to rise sharply, and risky assets, including bitcoin and ethereum, started to fall. BTC fell below $20,000, ETH fell below $1,550.

- Analysts recorded the largest outflow of funds from crypto funds since June. According to CoinShares, it amounted to $63 million from September 03 to September 09 against $8.7 million a week earlier. Over the past five weeks, the cumulative withdrawal of funds from cryptocurrency products amounted to $99 million. Trade turnover (~$1 billion) was 46% below the average for this year.
The outflow from Ethereum funds continued for the third week in a row at even higher rates ($61.6 million vs. $2.1 million a week earlier). Analysts attributed this to investors' fears about possible problems of The Merge scheduled for September 15.

- The transition of the Ethereum network from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake (PoS) will not solve the problems of scalability or high fees, but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. This opinion was expressed by analysts of Bank of America (BofA).
“The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking […] could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

- A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.
The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future, which will also affect the positions of cryptocurrencies. The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be, filbfilb emphasized.
The expert called the rally of bitcoin in the Q1 2023 "obvious". He sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.
The specialist also commented on the upcoming Merge on the ethereum network. He noted that the reduction in the issue of the asset could spur the growth of the coin. At the same time, filbfilb has not ruled out a dump after the event itself, citing the reaction of bitcoin after the halving, which is similar in effect to the merge.

- Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”
The trader noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

- Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He noted that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin, but it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. “A significant part of investors are wondering if the current levels are the low of the cycle. It is likely, but it is also worth noting that these levels are a good option for accumulating BTC for the long term. Everyone has seen bitcoin bounce around $19,000 several times, Rager writes. In addition, the analyst believes that the coin is still highly correlated with the S&P 500 index. And therefore, we will not see new cycle lows as long as it is above 3,896 points.

- The dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

- Despite the depreciation of BTC, MicroStrategy intends to continue the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks.
Earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor stepped down as CEO to focus on the company's plans to acquire BTC. MicroStrategy has grown its holdings of bitcoin under his leadership, making it the largest corporate holder of the asset. It currently owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

- Eugene Fama, American economist, and Nobel Prize winner in 2013, believes that the first cryptocurrency will only have value if it is used as money. However, according to the scientist, the viability of bitcoin as a means of payment is greatly reduced due to its high volatility. “Monetary theory says that a unit of account will not survive unless it has a sufficiently stable real value. Its real price should not rise and fall sharply,” the Nobel laureate believes.
Fama disagrees with the claim that BTC is a store of value. According to him, the idea that bitcoin has value should be considered a temporary phenomenon. “There has to be something really useful in the product so that people want to keep it for a very long time. But bitcoin has nothing that gives it value other than the investors who hold it. […] So bitcoin will collapse at some point,” the economist says.

- Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, does not agree with Eugene Fama. He noted during his interview at the SALT conference that he is optimistic about the immediate prospects for the crypto-currency industry. In his opinion, many digital currencies can demonstrate their practical value in the foreseeable future. Novogratz also focused on the fact that the actions of market participants are formed taking into account the general rhetoric regarding a particular crypto project, and not its real functionality.
The expert added that BlackRock's entry into the crypto industry can be considered a monumental event that can have a significant impact on the entire segment in the future. Recall that BlackRock, Inc. is one of the world largest investment companies and the largest in the world in terms of assets.

- According to a survey conducted by Harris Poll, 70% of US crypto investors hope to become billionaires. Harris Poll interviewed 1,900 Americans from all age groups. Those who claim that cryptocurrencies can bring them billions are mostly millennials or generation Z. Analysts emphasized that American youth do not trust traditional financial instruments, while digital currencies, on the contrary, are becoming more and more attractive to them.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 17, 2022, 03:19:19 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 19 - 23, 2022


EUR/USD: Ahead of the US Federal Reserve FOMC Meeting

The World Bank said last week that risks of a recession in 2023 are growing amid simultaneous tightening of monetary policy by the world's leading Central banks and the energy crisis in Europe. According to Citigroup strategists, the dollar remains the only safe haven for investors to hedge against the risk of drawdown in investment portfolios.

Global stock markets have lost $23 trillion since the early 2022, and bond prices have also declined. As for the US currency, it continues to grow, unlike stocks and other risky assets. According to experts' forecasts, the DXY Dollar Index may come close to 112.00 points over the next three months, renewing a 20-year high. Investors' belief that the US economy will cope better with the impending global recession than the economies of other countries and regions strengthens the dollar as well.

Markets are now focused on the next FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, September 21. The key parameters that determine the monetary policy of the Central Bank at the present stage are inflation and the state of the labor market. Important statistics were released last week, including retail sales and unemployment claims in the US. This data strengthened investors in the opinion that the Fed will continue the policy of quantitative tightening (QT). According to the CME Group, the probability of another rate increase by 75 basis points (bp) is estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. In addition, Wells Fargo analysts believe that the rate hike will be supplemented by an acceleration in the rate of balance sheet reduction.

The Fed's forecast for a neutral level of interest rates will be updated at this meeting as well. The median forecast for the federal funds rate in 2022 is expected to be revised to 3.875%, up from 3.375% in the June forecast.

All of the above steps may lead to further strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the stock market. The reverse scenario will be possible only if the announced plans are suddenly abandoned. However, this can only happen with a sharp decline in GDP, rising unemployment and a convincing victory over inflation. Neither one, nor the other, nor the third has yet been observed in the United States.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published on September 13, fell from 8.5% to 8.3% over the month. However, the forecast assumed a stronger fall, to 8.1%. An additional negative was the rise in core inflation to 6.3% y/y, which is the highest since March and more than three times higher than the Central Bank's target of 2%. But the labor market, on the contrary, is doing quite well, which supports forecasts for a rise in interest rates. Employment growth over the past two months has been robust, averaging 421K new jobs.

As for the Eurozone, inflation accelerated to 9.1% in August. Based on this, some analysts believe that the ECB may also continue to raise the rate in 0.75% increments. However, the next meeting of this regulator is not yet soon, on October 27. So it lags far behind in tightening (QT) from its overseas counterpart. At the same time, according to Rabobank strategists, the unstable situation in the region may mean that “raising rates will not significantly strengthen the euro.” Given the strength of the US dollar, experts believe that the EUR/USD pair may fall to 0.9500 in the coming weeks.

The EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0013. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 16, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 75% of analysts say that the pair will continue moving south in the near future, another 25% vote for the continuation of the side trend along Pivot Point 1.0000. There is not a single vote on the side of the bulls.

Among the trend indicators on D1, 65% are red, 35% are green. Among the oscillators, 25% are on the green side, the same 25% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray.

The pair has been moving along the parity line for the past four weeks. The main trading range was within 0.9900-1.0050. Taking into account breakdowns in both directions, it is somewhat wider: 0.9863-1.0197. The next strong support after the 0.9860 zone is located around 0.9685, the bears' target, as mentioned above, is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 1.0050, 1.0080, 1.0130, then 1.0200 and 1.0254, the next target area is 1.0370-1.0470.

In addition to the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting and subsequent forecasts and comments, we expect fresh data on unemployment in the US next week. It will be published on Thursday September 23. And business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and in the Eurozone as a whole will become known at the end of the working week, on Friday, September 23.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

The British currency has set another anti-record. Having risen to 1.1737 at the beginning of the week, GBP/USD then turned around and flew down rapidly. Wednesday brought a little respite, and then the flight continued. The landing occurred on Friday 16 September at 1.1350. The pair was this low 37 years ago, in 1985. The last chord of the week sounded 75 points higher, at 1.1425.

Apart from the strengthening of the dollar on expectations of a rate hike by the Fed, additional pressure on the British currency was exerted by a drop in retail sales in the United Kingdom. They fell 1.6% m/m in August, more than three times the 0.5% forecast.

According to analysts, a strong technical correction can stop the collapse. And that's only for a while. Strategists from MUFG Bank believe that the downtrend of GBP/USD may continue to a historic low of 1.0520. “With the UK budget and current account deficits combined to reach an impressive 15% of GDP, downward pressure on the GBP will continue,” they write.

The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision the next day after the FOMC meeting, on Thursday, September 22. The main forecast suggests that it may rise by 50 bp, from 1.75% to 2.25%. However, it is possible that the regulator will immediately raise the rate to 2.50%, which will support the British currency for some time.

However, this is a double-edged sword. If the rate increase forecast comes true, this will create an even greater burden on the country's economy, whose health is already causing serious concern. We previously wrote that, according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the UK is already in the midst of a recession, and inflation will reach 14% this year. And according to Goldman Sachs, it could reach 22% by the end of 2023, which will provoke a protracted economic downturn and a contraction of the economy by more than 3.5%. British energy regulator Ofgem has already announced that average annual electricity bills for UK households will rise by 80% from October. And according to the Financial Times, the number of fuel-poor households will more than double in January to 12 million.

Ahead of the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the median outlook for next week looks neutral. A third of the analysts side with the dollar, another third - with the pound, and another third have taken a neutral position. The readings of the indicators on D1 are almost all red again. These are 100% among the trend indicators. For oscillators, 85% point south and 15% point east. No oscillators are pointing north.

As for the bulls, they will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740, 1.1800, 1.1865-1.1900, 1.2000. The nearest support is in the 1.1400-1.1415 zone, followed by the September 16 low at 1.1350. One can only guess to what levels, given the increased volatility, the pair may fall further. Let us only repeat that the 1985 historical low is at 1.0520.

Among the events of the coming week, except for the Bank of England meeting, the calendar includes Friday, September 23, when data on business activity (PMI) in the UK will be published. It should also be noted that the country has a bank holiday on Monday, September 19.

USD/JPY: Ahead of the Bank of Japan Meeting

In addition to the Fed and Bank of England meetings, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will also meet next week. According to forecasts, the Japanese regulator will continue to adhere to the ultra-soft monetary policy and keep the negative interest rate (-0.1%) unchanged.

A miracle can happen of course, but its probability is close to 0. At the same time, the BOJ's unilateral actions, according to economists from Societe Generale, will only be enough to stop the weakening of the yen. But they will not be enough to reverse the USD/JPY downtrend. Societe Generale calls a recession in the US, which will lead to a drop in the yield of US Treasury obligations, as another prerequisite.

USD/JPY ended the trading session last week at 142.90, failing to reach the 145.00 high. However, according to Bank of America analysts, the pair's bullish sentiment remains, and it is still aimed at moving towards 150.00. At the same time, bank specialists note the following three levels: Fibo 38.2% correction (head and shoulders) at 145.18, the peak of 1999 at 147.00, and the target A=C at 149.53.

The closest resistance for the pair, just like a week ago, is 143.75. The bulls' task No. 1 is to gain a foothold above 145.00. Back in the spring, when analyzing the rate of the pair's rise, we made a forecast according to which it could reach a peak of 150.00 in September. And it may come true against the background of a rise in the Fed's interest rate. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

The opinion of Bank of America analysts is supported by 65% of experts, 25% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 are 100% on the green side, although 10% of them signal being overbought. Among trend indicators, 75% are green and ­25% are red.

With the exception of the BOJ meeting, no important macro data on the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. Traders should also note that Monday, September 19 and Friday, September 23 are non-working days in Japan.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: ETH After the Merge: Fall Instead of Growth

(https://i.imgur.com/CIsSYfA.jpg)

We usually start our review with the main cryptocurrency, bitcoin. But this time, let's deviate from the rules and give the palm to the main altcoin, Ethereum. This is due to an event that may become the most important for the crypto industry in 2022. On September 15, the ETH network hosted the global update The Merge, which involves the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). This means that now the security of the blockchain will be ensured not by miners, but by validators: users who have deposited and blocked their share of coins (staking).

Now, instead of running large networks of computers, validators will use their Ethereum cache as a means of validating transactions and mining new tokens. This should improve the speed and efficiency of the network so that it can process more transactions and solve the problem of user growth. The developers claim that the update will make the network that hosts the ecosystem of cryptocurrency exchanges, lending companies, non-playable token (NFT) markets and other applications more secure and scalable. In addition, cryptocurrencies have been constantly criticized for their huge energy consumption. Ethereum will now consume 99.9% less of it.

Enthusiasts believe that this merge will revolutionize the industry and allow Ethereum to overtake bitcoin in capitalization and value. However, many authoritative voices sound much calmer. For example, Bank of America (BofA) believes that this hard fork will not solve the problem of scalability or high fees but may lead to wider institutional adoption. The notable decrease in power consumption after The Merge will allow some investors to purchase this altcoin for the first time. “The ability to place ETH and generate higher quality returns (lower credit and liquidity risk) as a validator or through staking could also drive institutional adoption,” BofA admitted.

CoinShares Chief Strategy Officer Meltem Demirors looks more pessimistic. He believes that investors are ignoring the overall market situation in the hype around the Merge. And it’s not certain that this event will attract significant investment capital: “The reality is more prosaic,” says the CoinShares strategist. “At the global level, investors are concerned about rates and macro indicators. And I don't believe that significant amounts of new capital are likely to enter ETH.”

Time will tell how the market will eventually react to the Merge. In the meantime, instead of growth, there has been a fall. The trigger was the collapse of stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq), which was provoked by US inflation data for August. Market participants decided that in such a situation the Fed would tighten its monetary policy more actively and raise interest rates. It is expected that the rate will rise by another 0.75% or even 1.0% next week. As a result, the dollar began to rise sharply, while risky assets, including bitcoin and Ethereum, fell. BTC fell to $19,341 by Friday evening, having lost 15% of its value over the week, ETH fell to $1,403, “shrinking” by 20%.

According to many experts, due to the hawkish position of the Fed and the ECB, the dynamics of the crypto market will remain negative at least until the end of the year. Against the backdrop of a reduction in market risk appetite, it will be difficult for bitcoin to stay above not only the psychologically important level of $20,000, but also above the June 18 low of $17,600. The latter threatens a further collapse.

A trader and analyst under the nickname filbfilb allowed in an interview with Cointelegraph the bitcoin to fall from current levels to $10,000-11,000. According to the specialist, bitcoin has become highly correlated with the US stock market, which is under enormous pressure due to the Fed's policies. The first cryptocurrency behaves as a risky asset, not as inflation insurance.

The expert noted that the upcoming winter will be a serious test for residents and politicians of the European Union, the consequences of which will have a negative impact on hodlers. The important thing will be how the countries of the Old World will cope with the energy crisis. According to him, everything is in the hands of diplomats who are able to prevent an emergency. Otherwise, risky assets will face a difficult future. "The dialogue between Russia and NATO is important: the sooner it starts, the higher the bitcoin low will be", filbfilb emphasized.

It should be noted here that the dependence of BTC on the US stock market weakened sharply in August and was at the annual low. However, it has begun to grow again and, according to the TradingView service, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.59. The situation is similar with the Nasdaq. The correlation with it fell to 0.31 in August, and it rose to 0.62 in September. Analysts remind that the dependence of the crypto sphere on the stock market becomes strong after the correlation index rises above 0.5. When 0.7 is reached, the dependence becomes ideal.

However, despite the negative sentiments, there is still hope to see light at the end of the tunnel. The aforementioned filbfilb called bitcoin's Q1 2023 rally "obvious". The expert sees two reasons for this. The first is the seasonal factor. Downtrends end 1000 days after the halving (which will be early next year. The second is a change in sentiments to positive ones, based on game theory. With a probability of 2/3, the expert suggested that Europe will survive the coming winter. But if things go badly, it will increase the likelihood of a dialogue with Russia that will bring stability in the short term.

Cryptocurrency analyst with the nickname Rager does not believe in the decline of BTC to $12,000. He agreed that there are no guarantees when dealing with bitcoin. But, in his opinion, it is very likely that the asset is forming a bear market bottom above $19,000. Another analyst and trader with the nickname Rekt Capital believes that everything is moving towards the final phase of bitcoin's decline. “A significant part of the BTC bear market is behind us, and the entire bull market is ahead. The bottom of the bear market will be in November, December or the beginning of the Q1 2023.”

Rekt Capital noted that the data signal a possible rise in BTC by 200%, but there is one caveat: Bitcoin could fall even more before it goes up. “Of course, in the short term, the BTC price could fall by 5%-10%,” Rekt Capital writes. “But in the long term, a rally of more than 200% is very likely.”

Despite the depreciation of BTC, Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, hopes for the best. His company intends to proceed with the acquisition of this asset. It will reportedly sell $500 million worth of its own shares. The proceeds from these sales will be used, among other things, to replenish the cryptocurrency stocks. Note that MicroStrategy is the largest corporate bitcoin holder. It owns 129,699 coins purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,664. The last purchase (480 BTC) was made in June.

At the time of writing (Friday evening, September 16), this MicroStrategy investment is deeply unprofitable, as BTC/USD is trading at $19,730 (ETH/USD - $1,435). The total capitalization of the crypto market has again fallen below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $0.959 trillion ($1.042 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell 2 points in seven days from 22 to 20 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 21, 2022, 03:16:42 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/4zNaP6a.jpg)

- Analytical software provider MicroStrategy purchased an additional 301 BTC for $6 million. This is stated in the report submitted to the SEC. Michael Saylor, founder and ex-CEO of the company, said that purchases were made between August 2 and September 19 at an average price of $19,851 per BTC. MicroStrategy's previous investment in the first cryptocurrency took place in June: the firm purchased 480 BTC worth about $10 million.
MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries currently own 130,000 BTC, purchased at an average exchange rate of $30,638 per coin. Thus, unrealized losses on this investment exceed $1.5 billion.

- The monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve has led to the emergence of "tumors" like bitcoin. This was stated by the philosopher and author of the cult work “Black Swan” Nassim Taleb. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

- Willy Woo, a well-known bitcoin investor and analyst, believes that the BTC rate is being held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin stabilizing speculation where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”
Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now.”

- Nicholas Merten, an analyst and founder of DataDash, believes that after BTC's unsuccessful attempt to stay above $19,000, it will fall to $14,000. In his opinion, this is influenced by both technical and macroeconomic factors.
Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is struggling to rise above this level.
Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”
As for ethereum, Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.
The decline is facilitated by the actions of the Fed, whose hawkish monetary policy caused the collapse of the cryptocurrency and stock markets in 2022. Despite the potential dangers to the economy, Merten does not expect the US Central Bank to stop raising rates until a confident victory over inflation.

- An analyst with the nickname DonAlt believes that BTC will update the lows of 2022 against the backdrop of weak stock market performance. He predicts a fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a serious drop and a return to support at 3680.”

- The ongoing cryptocurrency bear market is unlike any before it as the Fed is running the ship this time around. Ethereum has fallen by about 15% since September 15, the completion date for The Merge update. Bitcoin has fallen by about 3% over the same period.
Ethereum’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation.
Traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

- Investors are wondering if ethereum’s regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case, the coin will attract close attention of the SEC.

- Takis Georgakopoulos, head of the payments division at JPMorgan investment bank, said that customer demand for cryptocurrencies has plummeted over the past six months. Most likely, the situation is related to the fall of the crypto market, which dragged on for several months. More than $2 trillion has disappeared from the market. Well-known companies working with digital assets are on the verge of bankruptcy. For example, Celsius and Voyager Digital filed for bankruptcy in July due to lack of liquidity.
Recall that JPMorgan strategists recommended at the end of August that investors focus not on cryptocurrencies, but on stocks and long-term bonds until the economic situation stabilizes.

- Bloomberg Senior Analyst Mike McGlone is convinced that market signals indicate that the value of bitcoin is growing. The expert compared the current fall in cryptocurrency quotes with the fall of the NASDAQ index in 2002 and subsequent stable growth over a long period of time. Mike McGlone argues that bitcoin will benefit from a "new chapter in the economy" in which speculation is driven by more than just how much money the Fed is printing. “The days when unsustainable companies could exist are over. Now, if a business doesn't work, it's sinking. And this is good, because now that the market has cleared after a wave of bankruptcies, it is open to solid business,” he said.

- Central Bank Governor Patrick Njoroge complained at a meeting of the Kenyan Parliament that even in his inner circle there are many people who are trying to convince him to convert reserves countries into bitcoins. The official called the idea insane. And he added that if the country takes the path of legalizing bitcoin, he will oppose it, even under the threat of going to jail. “Can cryptocurrencies be called the best means for making settlements and payments? Are cryptocurrencies safer than a bank account? The answer is no," the governor of the Kenyan Central Bank said.
It is worth noting here that many Central Banks like to keep their reserves in gold bars. And according to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. So the idea under discussion might not be that crazy.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 25, 2022, 07:48:46 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 26 - 30, 2022


EUR/USD: In Search of a New Bottom

Last week, all the attention of the markets was focused on the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which took place on September 21. The probability of another rate hike by 75 basis points (bp) had been estimated at 74%, and by 100 bps at 26%. The first forecast turned out to be correct: the rate was increased from 2.50% to 3.25%. But this was enough for the DXY dollar index to fly up and exceed 113.00 points, updating another 20-year high. Accordingly, as expected by the majority (75%) of experts, EUR/USD has renewed another 20-year low, reaching the bottom at 0.9667.

Russian President Vladimir Putin contributed to the weakening of the euro and the fall of the pair, announcing the mobilization of part of the military reserve to reinforce the Russian troops that invaded Ukraine. Mr. Putin also repeated the threat to use nuclear weapons, which further increased tension in the region. In addition, the heating season begins in Europe, and Russia continues to put pressure on it, using problems with energy supplies as a "weapon".

At the last meeting, the Fed gave the markets a clear hawkish signal about its next steps. It will continue its quantitative tightening (QT) policy, including reducing its balance sheet, and the interest rate will remain high in 2023. As for the current year, 2022, according to CME Group estimates, the probability that it will exceed 4.00% by the end of Q4 is almost 60%.

According to US Central bank officials, defeating inflation is now a priority. To implement it, the regulator is ready to accept the threat of a recession, including a drop in production and consumption, as well as problems in the labor market.

Investors fleeing risks on side with the dollar as a safe haven. US stock indices have been going down for the second week in a row. The S&P500 fell below its July lows, and the Dow Jones reached its June lowest values.

The last chord of the week for EUR/USD sounded at 0.9693. At the time of writing the review, Friday evening, September 23, the votes of the experts are distributed as follows. 55% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, while the remaining 45% expect a correction to the north. As for the trend indicators on D1, 100% is colored red, the picture is the same among the oscillators, while 25% signal that the pair is oversold.

The pair's immediate support is the September 23 low at 0.9667, with bears targeting 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9700-0.9735, 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

We are in for a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. The week will be opened by data on GDP (Q3) and IFO business climate in Germany, which will be released on Monday September 26. Data from the US consumer market will be received the next day, and the US GDP (Q2) will become known on Thursday, September 29. Statistics on sales and the labor market in Germany, as well as on the consumer markets of the Eurozone (CPI) and the United States, will be published in turn on the last day of the five-day period and the month, September 30. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech this week on September 26, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak on September 27.

GBP/USD: Back to the Past: Return to 1985

The Bank of England raised the pound rate by 50 bp up to 2.25% the day after the Fed meeting, on Thursday September 22. However, as expected, this did not help the British currency much. More precisely, given the current macroeconomic situation, it did not help at all. In just 10 days, from September 13 to 23, GBP/USD flew about 900 points, falling to its lowest level in 37 years. The bottom was found on Friday at 1.0838, which was in line with 1985 levels.

Disappointing economic data from the United Kingdom continues to weigh heavily on the pound. Business activity in the private sector continued to fall. The Preliminary Composite PMI, with a forecast of 49.0 points, actually fell from 49.6 to 48.4 over the month. In addition, a survey by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), which speaks on behalf of 190,000 businesses, showed that the balance of retail sales fell to -20 in September from +37 in August.

According to the Bank of England's own forecasts, the country is close to a deep recession. And according to the estimates of the British Chamber of Commerce (BCC), the recession is already in full swing, and inflation will reach 14% by the end of the year. Next year also does not bode well: according to strategists at Goldman Sachs, inflation could reach 22% by the end of 2023.

To combat it, the Bank of England has moved to more aggressive rate hikes. But the tightening of monetary policy takes place simultaneously with an increase in budget spending. Moreover, the government will most likely not have enough of its own funds to pay businesses and households the announced partial compensation of electricity bills. Therefore, it will have to take large loans, which will not benefit the national currency either. (We have already reported that British energy regulator Ofgem announced that average annual bills will rise by 80% from October, and the number of households in fuel poverty could reach 12 million people in January).

The pair closed last week at 1.0867. But the range 1.0800-1.0838 is unlikely to become a strong enough support. Having broken it, the bears will rush to the historical low of 1985 of 1.0520, to which there are only about 300 points left. Given the pace of the fall of the pair, it can reach this goal in one to two weeks. Of course, a correction is not ruled out due to the oversold pound. If the pair turns north, it will meet resistance in the zones and at the levels of 1.1000-1.1020, 1.1100, 1.1215, 1.1350, 1.1475, 1.1535, 1.1600, 1.1650, 1.1710-1.1740. The return of the pair to the heights around 1.1800-1.2000 seems unlikely in the coming weeks.

Experts' forecast for the coming week looks quite unique: all 100% side with the British currency. As for the indicators on D1, all 100% point exactly in the opposite direction. However, 50% of the oscillators are in the deep oversold zone, which confirms experts' expectations regarding a correction to the north.

The event calendar can mark Friday, September 30, when UK GDP (Q2) data will be released.

USD/JPY: Miracle from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan

(https://i.imgur.com/s6hj4PK.jpg)

As we predicted, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) remained true to itself at its meeting on September 22 and kept its interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. However, we still have to admit our mistake. We wrote last week that the Japanese financial authorities should not expect a miracle. But a miracle did happen. As USD/JPY crept up to 146.00, the Treasury's seemingly steely nerves snapped and it ordered the BOJ to intervene in support of the yen.

As a result, the pair avalanched 550 pips, showing the most volatility since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Then the shock passed, the situation calmed down a bit, and the pair returned to the values of the beginning of the working week, ending it at the level of 143.30.

This pullback confirms some analysts' view that the yen's strength is unlikely to be long-term and that USD/JPY will return to storm the 146.00 high again. “In the absence of major changes in fundamentals or (unlikely) concerted action against the US dollar, the chances of a sustained rebound in the Japanese yen are limited,” Scotiabank macro strategists say. “The key issue here, of course, is the divergence in monetary policy settings between the US and Japan, which has caused the Japanese yen to plummet since the Fed first began raising interest rates in earnest in the spring.”

Scotiabank believes that markets are likely to retest the 146.00 level to test the resolve of the Bank of Japan. And the Japanese Central Bank will have to spend billions of USD to protect this level. Moreover, it may even ask the ECB, the Bank of England and the Fed to act as their agent outside of business hours in Tokyo. However, it is likely that the Bank of Japan will try to fight off the strong dollar alone.

Experts' median forecast for the near future is as follows. 45% of experts side with the bulls, 45% have taken the opposite position, the remaining 10% remain neutral. Oscillators on D1 have 40% on the green side, 10% on the red side, and 50% are colored neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 9 to 1 in favor of the green ones.

The nearest resistance for the pair, as in the last two weeks, is 143.75. The objectives of bulls No. 1 and No. 2 are to gain a foothold above 145.00 and then storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Supports for the pair are located at the levels and in the zones 143.00, 142.60, 142.00-142.20, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05, 137.50, 135.60-136.00, 134.40, 132.80, 131.70.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. However, there are two events that are of particular interest in the light of the decision to intervene. A press conference by BOJ Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda is scheduled for Monday, September 26, and the report on the last meeting of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will be published on Wednesday, September 28. In both cases, the market will try to understand how serious the regulator is about supporting its national currency.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bearish Sentiment Persists

So is bitcoin digital gold after all? According to a survey conducted by Paxos among regular buyers of physical gold, almost a third of respondents consider BTC as the best alternative to the precious metal. However, judging by how both of these assets have been behaving lately, the best alternative for both of them is the US dollar. Physical gold peaked at $2,070 on March 08, 2022, after which it went down, having lost about 20% of its value so far. As for its digital counterpart, the all-time high of $67,273 occurred on November 10, 2021, and the loss is now approximately 71%. If we compare these figures, it turns out that XAU/USD was falling by 0.10% daily, while BTC/USD was falling twice as fast, by 0.22% per day. Draw your own conclusions. We only note that it is not gold and bitcoin that are to blame for what is happening, but the gaining strength of the dollar, which is growing along with the increase in the interest rate of the US Federal Reserve. So, another rate hike led to a fall in cryptocurrency quotes last week. Gold, on the other hand, although made a couple of jumps, returned to its previous price this time. After all, unlike BTC, it is a protective asset, not a risky one. Although, it is also receding step by step under the pressure of the American currency.

When it comes to precious metals, few people use derogatory epithets. Even though their price is falling as well. But in relation to cryptocurrencies, as much as you like. So, for example, the philosopher and author of the cult work "The Black Swan" Nassim Taleb called bitcoin a "tumor" that appeared due to the wrong policy of the Fed. “I believe we had 15 years […] of Disneyland which basically destroyed the economic structure. The Fed missed the mark by cutting interest rates too much. Zero interest for a long period of time damages the economy, bubbles are created, tumors like bitcoin are created,” he said, calling for a return to “normal economic life.”

Well-known bitcoin investor and analyst Willy Woo agrees that it is the US government that is now running the “ship”. True, on the contrary, he would like this “tumor” to be larger, but its growth is held back for political reasons. As he noted, it is currently theoretically possible to sell unlimited amounts of BTC due to futures contracts, although in reality the offer is limited to 21 million coins. “Futures markets can control the BTC rate,” the investor says. “CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) has set up a kind of bitcoin stabilizing speculation where you can play in US dollars. Wall Street hedge funds loved it. What are the current restrictions on the sale of bitcoin? None, because fiat has no restrictions.”

Willy Woo believes that due to the structure of the futures market, major players can suppress BTC by exerting pressure in the form of selling an asset: “Bitcoin should not be killed. Just the ability to short BTC is enough to suppress the exchange rate. Bitcoin will not be able to make a global impact without a high price. The SEC's policy is now aimed at increasing liquidity and the predominance of futures by approving futures ETFs, while spot ETFs are being rejected. Everything has turned into a political game now,” the investor sighs sadly.

DataDash analyst and founder Nicholas Merten expects the US Central bank to continue raising interest rates until it achieves a solid victory over inflation. And this, in turn, will push the quotes of digital assets further down. According to Merten, this is influenced not only by macroeconomic, but also by technical factors.

Thus, BTC's 200-week moving average (WMA) has become a resistance level, not a support level. Bitcoin has almost always remained above this indicator throughout its existence, with rare breakdowns to the downside, marking the bottom of the cycle. Currently, the 200-week WMA is around $23,250, and bitcoin is failing to rise above this level.

Merten concluded that BTC's recent exchange rate movement could signal the end of a 10-year bull market, and it can no longer be a leading asset compared to other commodities and stocks. According to the analyst, the next bottom of BTC could be around $14,000, which would mean an 80% correction from the all-time high, as in the case of previous bear markets. “$14,000 is a potential low at the moment. However, investors should consider an even sharper fall to $10,000.”

An analyst with the nickname DonAlt agrees with Merten, he believes that BTC will update the 2022 lows amid weak stock market performance. DonAlt predicts the coin will fall below the $18,000-20,000 range and form a new cycle low. “It often happens with such ranges that after it is broken, an increase occurs. And now there is a good chance to break through the $18,000-20,000 range and then form a bullish momentum. The only question is how low bitcoin can go because it can easily go all the way to $15,000.” “My forecast is based on the S&P 500 and looks terrible,” DonAlt writes. “It looks like this index is in for a big drop.”

We paid a lot of attention to the main competitor of bitcoin, ethereum, in the previous review. This was due to a very important event: the global update The Merge took place in the ETH network on September 15, including the transition of the altcoin from the Proof-of-Work protocol to Proof-of-Stake (PoS). Ethereum has fallen by about 20% since then. And we have repeatedly warned about this possibility, citing the opinions of various experts.

The coin’s price had roughly doubled from its yearly lows in June, by far outpacing bitcoin’s rise, ahead of the network upgrade. And Vijay Ayyar, vice president of the Luno crypto exchange, believes that the Merger had already been “factored into the price” of ETH, and “the actual event has become a “news selling” situation. According to Ayyar, traders are now moving investments from ethereum and other altcoins back to bitcoin, Ayyar said, “as bitcoin is expected to do better in a few months.” At the same time, the specialist believes that any “change in the macroeconomic environment in terms of inflation or unexpected interest rates” could lead BTC to fall below $18,000, and the coin will test levels up to $14,000.

However, inflation and rising rates are not the only factors that may affect the quotes of digital assets. So now investors are wondering if ethereum's regulatory status could change after the Merge. The reason for concern was the words of Gary Gensler, Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This official said last week that cryptocurrencies operating under the Proof-of-Stake model that applies to ETH can be classified as securities. Thus, these assets fall under the competence of the regulatory authorities. Gensler did not specifically name ethereum, but it is clear that in this case the coin will attract the close attention of the SEC, and it is unknown how this may end. For example, DataDash's Nicholas Merten expects the asset to retest the $800-$1,000 range, although he doesn't rule out a move lower.

At the time of this writing (Friday evening, September 23), bitcoin and ethereum have partially recouped the fall caused by the Fed's decision. BTC/USDis trading at $18,900 ( ETH/USD is $1,320). The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.929 trillion ($0.959 trillion a week ago). Like seven days ago, Crypto Fear & Greed Index is 20 points and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 05, 2022, 04:40:43 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/J8etpkk.jpg)

- Analysts have estimated the “painful” breakeven threshold for miners at $18,300. According to Glassnode's calculations, 78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if the price of bitcoin goes below this price, which follows from the mining difficulty regression model. This value is slightly higher than the June low of $17,840.
Against the background of price stability, mining metrics are improving, which is a signal that the situation will improve in the coming months. In particular, the hash rate reached a record 242 EH/s. The growth of computing power is due to the introduction of the most efficient ASIC devices. This confirms the dynamics of revenue per EH/s (4.06 BTC). In dollar terms, it ranges from $78,000-$88,000. The last time such values were observed was after the halving in October 2020, when bitcoin was worth half what it is now (~$10,000).
The balances of miners, which account for 96% of the current hash rate, have 78,400 BTC, the maximum number of coins that can increase sales in case of stress for this category of market participants. At the moment, most of the sales are carried out by miners associated with the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company admitted that there were problems with liquidity.
Glassnode experts also noted a growing likelihood of increased volatility after a long period of consolidation in the $18,000-20,000 range.

- McDonald's restaurant chain has started accepting BTC payments in Lugano, Switzerland. Back in March, Lugano authorities announced that they would make digital gold, USDT, and the city's LVGA token "de facto" legal tender. The decision was the development of an initiative to turn the city into the “Bitcoin Capital of Europe”.

- Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestseller Rich Dad, Poor Dad, called the strengthening of the US dollar an excellent opportunity to buy the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets. “Buy more. When the Fed turns around and cuts interest rates, you will smile while others cry,” he said.

- George Soros' former Quantum associate, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, predicted a revival of digital assets amid the collapse of the fiat-based economy. He said this at the CNBC conference. The financier expects a "hard landing" of the economy in 2023 against the backdrop of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.
In his opinion, quantitative easing and low rates led to bubbles in financial markets. These factors have not only been stopped now, but reversed. The Fed has begun cutting its $9 trillion balance and has already managed to raise the key rate five times to 3.25%, expecting its peak at 4.60%. “You don’t even need to talk about black swans to start worrying,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, if confidence in the actions of central banks is lost, cryptocurrencies “will play a big role in the revival”.

- Unlike global investors, ordinary people look at what is happening a little differently. The collapse in the crypto assets market forced not only the older generation, but also Newbie trader people to reconsider their attitude towards them. The financial company Bankrate conducted a survey, according to which, the number of Americans who were comfortable investing in digital money has dropped sharply.
Millennials, who had previously been considered most open to new technologies, have lost confidence in cryptocurrencies more than others. The percentage of Newbie trader people for whom cryptocurrencies were a convenient investment method fell from 49% in 2021 to 29% in 2022. People between the ages of 40 and 55 are losing trust in digital assets as well. Over the year, this figure fell from 37% to 21%. Among the older generation, the figure fell from 21% to 11%.
“It's much easier to invest enthusiastically in something when you see its value constantly increasing,” says Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate. “A real test of the faith happens when the market falls, and what you fervently believed until recently ceases to be profitable. Recent movements have forced many to reconsider their attitude towards the digital asset market radically.”

- Some different data was provided by The Block. According to their calculations, despite the global bearish trend, the number of active investors in the bitcoin network continues to grow. This trend is due to the serious economic crisis in Europe, against the background of which retailers are increasingly investing in the main cryptocurrency in order to diversify risks. According to The Block, the number of investors in the bitcoin ecosystem has grown by 4.5 million since January 1, 2022.
It is noteworthy that the number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC reached an all-time high of 10.7 million this month. About 47% of holders remain in profit, despite the flagship cryptocurrency's prolonged drawdown relative to its historical maximum.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz suggested that a reversal could form in the stock market in October. The expert also stressed that the Fed's policy is likely to remain aggressive. And there are no clear signs so far that the US department is ready to cut interest rates, as such a drastic move would harm efforts to combat inflation. However, the expert did not rule out that the regulator may re-initiate the quantitative easing procedure at some point in order to stabilize the market situation.
The head of Galaxy Digital believes that bitcoin looks quite stable in the current macroeconomic conditions, and that BTC will still be able to reach $500,000 within a few years.

- Unlike many optimists, cryptocurrency strategist and trader Cantering Clarke expects BTC to crash to five-year lows amid stock market weakness. According to his calculations, bitcoin could fall by almost 40% from current levels if the S&P 500 stock index resumes its bearish trend. “If the S&P 500 drops to the next major area between 3,200-3,400 [pips], I think the correct assumption is that the crypto crash will be 2-3 times greater. This means at least that BTC will re-test the largest protrusion in five years: about $12,000-13,000,” the trader warns.
However, in the short term, he believes bitcoin bulls could bring back some confidence to the market if they manage to gain a foothold above $20,000. “If we can break these local highs, I think BTC will see some momentum,” Cantering Clark predicts.

- Social media users are vigorously discussing the fact that October 7 will be a key day for the cryptocurrency market this week. The fact is that the US authorities will announce updated data on unemployment and wages in the non-agricultural sector of the country this Friday. Employment and CPI data will signal how much the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in November.
Experts are clearly divided on the future of the industry. Some of them predict a rapid growth in the exchange rate of the flagship cryptocurrency and altcoins due to the geopolitical situation in the world. Others, on the contrary, predict a protracted crisis. In their opinion, the industry will face a crypto winter in the next few years, so there is no point in waiting for prices to rise.

- According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, failure to regulate cryptocurrencies could harm the entire US financial system. According to her, this industry, left without regulation, is fraught with risks, although they do not pose a “real threat” to financial stability so far.
A true cascade of defaults and bankruptcies in the crypto industry has led firms like Celsius, Voyager, and Three Arrows to file for bankruptcy and prevent clients from withdrawing funds. We can recall the fall of the Luna token and the Terra stablecoin associated with it. All this led to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) deciding to increase its focus on the digital asset market by doubling its crypto division staff in May. And SEC chief Gary Gensler even called this entire industry the “ Earnings-price ratio West”.

- Increased regulation of cryptocurrencies is often frowned upon by crypto investors, and the threat of such increased regulation has often been a bearish factor for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the US futures market, believes that proper regulation could have a powerful bullish effect on the price of BTC.
CFTC chief Rostin Behnam explained that a clear regulatory framework could help increase the number of institutional investors. According to him, “these incumbent institutions in the crypto space see a huge opportunity for an institutional influx that will only happen if a regulatory structure is put in place around this market.” Behnam also noted that the bill submitted to the US Senate would make the CFTC the main regulator of the crypto industry, expanding the commission's powers and requiring crypto firms to register with the CFTC.

- The founder and CEO of The Birb Nest brand Ardian Zdunczyk shared his thoughts on bitcoin and what cryptocurrency can expect in the last quarter of the year. He noted that historically the fourth quarter was successful for BTC, and it would be interesting to see if the leader of the crypto market can repeat the previous successes. Zdunczyk cited historical data, proving that investors can expect good returns over the next two months. True, he made a reservation that no one would give guarantees.
Another argument in favor of the pre-New Year rally is the fact that the coins have risen slightly compared to their 200-day trends. Unlike fiat currencies that show roller coasters, bitcoin is stable in the range of $19,000 to $20,000. And now all markets are waiting for stability. They are already tired of the recession, the fall in company shares, the IMF's gloomy forecasts, and the ill-conceived policies of the Central Banks. Therefore, against such a background, bitcoin is becoming more and more attractive.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 09, 2022, 03:19:11 PM
Results of September 2022: Gold Is Still Valuable at NordFX

(https://i.imgur.com/64o32rV.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in September 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

Gold, or rather the XAU/USD pair, remains one of the most popular instruments among traders of the NordFX brokerage company. So, it was this precious metal that helped them take all three steps of the podium in September.

- The highest profit in the first month of autumn was received by a client from West Asia, account No. 1634XXX. Trading on the XAU/USD pair, this trader managed to earn 34,551 USD.
- The second step on the September podium went to the representative of East Asia (account No.1646XXX), whose result of 24,154 USD was also achieved thanks to transactions with gold.
- This precious metal helped another trader from West Asia as well (account No.1632XXX) enter the September TOP-3 with a profit of 22,735 USD.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

- At CopyTrading, we highlighted a number of startups a month ago. That's what we call them because of their short lifespan, which is an additional risk factor. Three such signals continued to work in September, still attracting attention. These are Andy EU250 (profit 372%/maximum drawdown 26%/75 days of life), JANUNGFX (261%/48%/75) and PT_bot Scalping (51%/8%/99) signals. Here, as usual, we recall that, in addition to a short lifespan, aggressive trading is a serious risk factor. Therefore, we urge you to be extremely cautious when working on financial markets.

- As for “veteran” signals, the first of them, KennyFXPro, Prismo 2K, has increased profits to 208% in 522 days with a maximum drawdown of about 45%. The readings of the second, KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, are slightly lower in all respects: a lifespan of 190 days, a profit of 61%, a drawdown of slightly less than 13%.
   
- The TOP-3 in thePAMM service has undergone certain changes over the past month. The leader is still the same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO. The capital on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 155% in 621 days. The account TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 also remained among the leaders, showing a profit of 117% in 553 days. Both of these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%. KennyFXPro - The Multi 3000 v2, closes the top three, which showed a return of 32% in 103 days of life with a drawdown of less than 14%.

TOP 3 NordFX IB Partners in September are as follows:
- the largest commission amount, 15,684 USD was accrued to the partner with account No.1645ХXХ;
- the second place went to the owner of account No.1507ХХХ, who received 8,394 USD;
- and, finally, the partner with account No.1633XXX, who received 7,178 USD as a reward, closes the top three.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 09, 2022, 03:42:50 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 10 - 14, 2022


EUR/USD: It's Getting Worse in the EU, It's Getting Better in the US

EUR/USD updated another 20-year low on September 28, bottoming at 0.9535. This was followed by a correction, and the pair came close to the parity level on Tuesday, October 04, rising to 0.9999. However, the happiness of the bulls was short-lived, followed by another reversal to the south and the finish line at 0.9737.

Judging by the economic macro statistics, the advantage will remain on the side of the bears for a long time to come. According to the latest data, the index of business activity in the services sector (ISM) of the Eurozone fell from 49.8 to 48.8 points. A similar indicator in the US decreased as well, but much less: from 56.9 to 56.7, and at the same time it turned out to be higher than the forecast of 56.0 points.

Things are even worse in Germany: this locomotive of the region's economy, instead of pushing the pan-European train forward, began to pull it back. The service sector activity index sank from 47.7 to 45.0 points, while the Composite Index fell from 46.9 to 45.7 points.

The August data on trade in Germany also indicate serious problems. Imports increased by 3.4%, more than three times the forecast of 1.1%. As a result, the country's trade surplus fell from €3.4 billion to €1.2 billion.

This depressed state of the economy against the background of continuing inflation suggests the threat of stagflation in the Eurozone. The increase in energy prices adds to the negative. And it is likely to continue, as the OPEC + countries decided to seriously reduce oil production. Recall that these prices were one of the most powerful triggers for the global wave of inflation. Another negative factor is the proximity of the EU countries to the theater of Russian-Ukrainian military operations, especially since Russian President V. Putin constantly threatens to use nuclear weapons.

The situation in the US is much better, which contributes to the strengthening of the US currency across the board. The country is far from the Russian-Ukrainian front, and the oil and gas crisis does not threaten it. According to ADP, private sector employment rose by 208K in September, above market expectations of 200K. The number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector of the country (NFP) also turned out to be higher than expected: 263K against 250K, and unemployment in the US decreased from 3.7% to 3.5% over the month.

This situation in the labor market allows the Fed to continue to fight inflation, using the policy of quantitative tightening (QT) and raising the interest rate on the dollar. Atlanta Fed chief Rafael Bostic said the tightening cycle is "still at the very beginning" and warned against Currency carry trade on a "reversal" soon. Similar statements were made by his colleague Mary Daly from San Francisco. What will actually happen to the rate will be known on November 2, when the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Central Bank will take place.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday October 07, the votes of the experts were distributed as follows. 50% of analysts say that the pair will continue to move south in the near future, another 30% expect it to move north, and the remaining 20% vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, 40% are red, 25% are green and 35% are neutral gray. The picture is completely different among the oscillators: all 100% advise to sell the pair.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9700-0.9725, followed by 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

As for the upcoming week, the publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting, as well as the speech of the head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, will give food for forecasts on Wednesday, October 12. The following day, Thursday 13 October, will see data from the consumer market (CPI) in Germany, as well as from the consumer market and the US labour market. US retail sales, as well as the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index, will become known at the very end of the working week, on Friday, October 14.

GBP/USD: A Disservice for the British Pound

As a result of the shock collapse on September 23-26, the British pound almost reached parity with the dollar. After flying 860 pips, the pair landed at 1.0350, below the 1985 low.

Such a record head-down throw was provoked by British Finance Minister Kwasi Kwarteng, who, instead of the planned increase, announced a program to reduce the tax burden for citizens and legal entities of the country. That is, in the context of inflation, which exceeded 10% in July, and could rise to 14% by the end of the year, in the face of growing public debt and the problems that have accumulated since Brexit, the government decided to turn around and return to quantitative easing (QE) . Alas for a while, this was enough to knock down the national currency.

The Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimates that this decision, along with previous support programs for the population and continued high energy prices, will lead to an increase in public debt from the current 96% to 320% of GDP over the next 50 years. The Parliament of the United Kingdom immediately talked about a vote of no confidence in the government of the country. Even the IMF flinched in surprise and lashed out at the British Cabinet. There is no need to talk about citizens: in anticipation of a further fall in the pound, they began to actively buy up gold and cryptocurrencies. New account openings have more than doubled, according to Bullion Vault, the London Bullion Market Association. A twofold increase in trading volumes for the BTC/GBP pair was also registered on crypto exchanges. In other words, what has been called a “disservice” since ancient times has happened.

The final chord of the week was set at 1.1079. According to strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, the current levels of the pound are unstable, given the instability of the bond market, the deterioration of the fiscal situation and the state of the UK current operations account. Therefore, they predict a return of GBP/USD below 1.1000. Their colleagues from MUFG Bank expect it to fall again to the lows of the last ten days of September. As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (55%) side with the bears as well. 15% expect the pound to strengthen, and 30% have taken a neutral position. All 100% of the oscillators on D1 point exactly south. But the picture is mixed among the trend indicators: 35% are colored red, the same amount is green, and the remaining 30% are gray. The nearest levels and support zones are 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. In case the pair reverses to the north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1230, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1720, 1.1800 1.1960.

The event calendar can mark Tuesday, October 11, when UK unemployment data will be released. The head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will make a speech by the end of the same day.

USD/JPY: “Sharp Yen Movements Are Undesirable”

(https://i.imgur.com/9LXzslX.jpg)

Recall that the experts' median forecast for USD/JPY looked more than uncertain two weeks ago. Then 45% of the experts sided with the bulls, 45% took the opposite position, the remaining 10% remained neutral. And this uncertainty has been fully confirmed: the pair has been moving in the side channel 143.50-145.30 since September 26, spending most of the time in an even narrower trading range of 144.00-144.85. The assault on the height of 146.00 has not happened. The strengthening of the yen, which bears hoped for after the Japanese Ministry of Finance ordered the Central Bank (BOJ), for the first time in 24 years, to intervene in support national currency, has not happened either.

A record amount of 2.8 trillion yen ($19.3 billion) was allocated for this purpose last month. As a result of this move, Japan's foreign exchange reserves fell by 4.2% to $1.238 trillion. The country's total foreign exchange reserves were $1.409 trillion a year ago. Japan's deposits in other countries' Central Banks, the volume of foreign securities, and gold reserves have also decreased.

It looks like the country's leadership is quite satisfied with the lull in USD/JPY quotes. Thus, the Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, commenting on the last intervention on October 7, stated that "the recent sharp, one-sided movements of the yen are undesirable." And this raises the question: did the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank take such a step contrary to the Prime Minister's position? Or did they not expect such an increase in volatility?

At the same time, the fact remains that, as we predicted, there was no long-term strengthening of the Japanese currency, and USD/JPY finished last week at 145.30 Supports are located in zones and at levels 144.85, 144.20, 143.50, 142.60, 141.80-142.20 and 140.25-140.60. The bulls' task No. 1 is to prevent the pair from falling below 145.00, and task No. 2 is to storm the height of 146.00. This is followed by 146.78, the level reached before the joint actions of Japan and the US to support the yen in 1998. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are 100% on the green side, although among the latter, one third signal that the pair is overbought.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. In addition, traders should keep in mind that Monday, October 10, is a day off in the country, National Sports Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Is Still Gold. Although Digital One.

According to The Block, despite the global bearish trend, the number of active investors in the bitcoin network has increased by 4.5 million since January 01, 2022. The number of bitcoin addresses with a balance of at least 0.01 BTC has reached an all-time high of 10.7 million in the last few weeks alone (At the same time, about 47% of holders remain in profit, despite the flagship cryptocurrency’s long drawdown relative to the all-time high).

This dynamic is due to a serious economic crisis in Europe, against which retail holders are increasingly investing in the main cryptocurrency in order to diversify risks. It suffices to cite the UK as an example, where, due to the loss of confidence in the government's fiscal policy, the pound went into a peak on September 23-26. As a result, panic-stricken investors began to convert the British currency into physical gold and crypto-assets. We wondered in the last forecast if BTC is digital gold. In the case of the UK, the answer is yes.

What happened suggests that the destabilization of traditional financial markets can benefit the crypto market. And this is not just our opinion. Billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, a former associate of George Soros at Quantum, predicted a resurgence of digital assets amid the collapse of the fiat-based economy. He stated this at the CNBC conference. The financier expects a "hard landing" of the economy in 2023 against the backdrop of an aggressive tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

In his opinion, quantitative easing and low rates led to bubbles in financial markets. These factors have not only been stopped now, but reversed. The Fed has begun cutting its $9 trillion balance and has already managed to raise the key rate five times to 3.25%, expecting its peak at 4.60%. “You don’t even need to talk about black swans to start worrying,” the billionaire said. In his opinion, if confidence in the actions of central banks is lost, cryptocurrencies “will play a big role in the revival”.

Not only Stanley Druckenmiller, but the market as a whole fear that the economy will not be able to withstand such monetary tightening. In addition to the rate hike, the monthly rate of contraction in the global money supply, according to Morgan Stanley, has reached $750 billion in dollar terms. This is leading to a deepening recession. it is only the Fed that can change the situation if it retreats from its plans to combat inflation. Looking to the future, Rich Dad Poor Dad bestselling author Robert Kiyosaki called the current situation a great opportunity to buy the first cryptocurrency and other digital assets. “Buy more. When the Fed turns around and cuts interest rates, you will smile while others cry,” he said.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, gave a similar forecast. This expert did not rule out that the regulator may re-initiate the quantitative easing procedure at some point in order to stabilize the market situation. In his opinion, bitcoin looks quite stable even in the current macroeconomic conditions. And in the event of a change in the policy of the Fed, BTC will still be able to reach $500,000 within a few years.

As for the near future, Ardian Zdunczyk, founder and CEO of The Birb Nest, shared his forecast here. He referred to historical data, according to which the fourth quarter has always been successful for BTC. Based on this, investors can expect good returns over the next two months. True, Zdunczyk made a reservation straight away that no one would give guarantees on this score.

Another argument in favor of the pre-New Year rally, according to the specialist, is the fact that the coins rose slightly compared to their 200-day trends. Unlike fiat currencies that are on a rollercoaster ride, bitcoin is holding steady around $20,000. And now all markets are waiting for stability. They are already tired of the recession, the fall in company stocks, the gloomy forecasts of the IMF and the ill-conceived policies of the Central Banks, says Ardian Zdunczyk. Therefore, against such a background, bitcoin is becoming more and more attractive.

Against the backdrop of BTC price stability, mining-related metrics are also improving. In particular, the hash rate reached a record 242 EH/s. Analysts have estimated the “painful” breakeven threshold for miners at $18,300. According to Glassnode's calculations, 78,400 BTC could be at risk of liquidation if bitcoin goes below this price, which is derived from a mining difficulty regression model. This value is slightly higher than the June low of $17,840.

The balances of miners have 78,400 BTC, the maximum number of coins that can increase sales in case of stress for this category of market participants. At the moment, most of the sales are carried out by miners associated with the Poolin pool. In September, representatives of this company admitted that there were problems with liquidity.

Cryptocurrency strategist and trader Cantering Clark also warns that BTC could plunge to five-year lows amid weak stock markets. According to his calculations, bitcoin could fall by almost 40% from current levels if the S&P 500 stock index resumes its bearish trend. “If the S&P 500 drops to the next major area between 3,200-3,400 [pips], I think the correct assumption is that the crypto crash will be 2-3 times greater. This means at least that BTC will re-test the largest protrusion in five years: about $12,000-13,000,” the trader predicts.

However, in the short term, he believes bitcoin bulls could bring back some confidence to the market if they manage to gain a foothold above $20,000. “If we can break these local highs, I think BTC will see some momentum,” Cantering Clark thinks.

Social media users had been recently discussing vigorously the fact that October 07 will be a key day for the cryptocurrency market last week. The reason for this is the release of data on the US labor market that day. Together with CPI, these statistics allow us to predict how much the Fed can raise interest rates at its next meeting in November. And this, in turn, will certainly affect the value of risky assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The market reacted to the release of these data by lowering the quotations of risky assets: at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, October 07), BTC/USD went below $20,000 and is trading at $19,610. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.946 trillion ($0.935 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen only 1 point in seven days, from 22 to 23, and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.

And at the end of the review, as usual, we will try to give everyone a boost of optimism. According to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, the crypto industry, left unregulated, is fraught with risks and could harm the entire US financial system. Usually, such statements were perceived by the market as a threat, and became a bearish factor for bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. However, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which oversees the US futures market, believes that proper regulation could have a powerful bullish effect on the price of BTC. CFTC chief Rostin Behnam explained that a clear regulatory framework would help boost the number of institutional investors.

There is no doubt that the US government agencies will soon squeeze the crypto industry into their regulatory “embrace”. But what if that's when Mike Novogratz's predictions come true, and we see bitcoin at around $500,000?


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 12, 2022, 06:58:04 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/9XdBc8B.jpg)

- Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. “I still have a small bitcoin investment,” Jones noted. According to this Wall Street King, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable “at some point” because of too much money.
Jones pointed to the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. It was quite simple until 2018, but the regulator “went too far with quantitative easing” two years later to support the economy, and then changed its strategy drastically. “Inflation is a bit like toothpaste,” the famous trader explained. "Once you squeeze it out of the tube, it will be difficult to put it back. The Fed is furiously trying to wash that taste out of their mouths. […] If we go into a recession, it will have a really negative impact on a range of assets.”

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks “a strong tailwind.”
He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

- A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.
Dave the Wave also notes that the MACD momentum indicator may indicate soon if BTC has hit the market bottom. “The recent local downtrend is now equal to the previous uptrend. A monthly closure with a strength/contraction histogram will contribute to a significant assumption [if not confirmation] of the bottom.”

- Google has announced that it will soon start accepting payments for subscriptions to its own cloud services in cryptocurrency. This was reported by the CNBC news agency. The partner of the IT giant is the Coinbase crypto exchange. It is noted that Google will accept 10 types of cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash and even Dogecoin. The feature will become available in early 2023. At the first stages, only “a few corporate clients in the world” will be able to pay Google with cryptocurrency. However, a much larger number of Google users will later access it.
According to CNBC, Coinbase will receive a commission on each transaction, the amount of which has not yet been disclosed. However, it is noted that as part of the partnership, Coinbase will abandon Amazon's cloud infrastructure in favor of a similar solution from Google.

- Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe believes that bitcoin's current low price volatility will begin to increase in the second half of October, after US inflation data is released. Together with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, it will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market.
The next important point is early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. The probability of this is estimated above 90% at the Chicago CME Group. If so, according to JP Morgan, the S&P 500 index, which has lost 24.21% since the start of the year, faces a new collapse of about 20%. Thus, investors will be able to receive less than $56 out of the $100 dollars that they invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies.
Bitcoin's price is sure to react to such a move in the US stock market, but how? Opinions differ here. Wall Street stock prices, like any other risky asset measured in USD, are under pressure that the dollar DXY index is rising and is now reaching its highest level since May 2002 (113 points). However, the correlation of cryptocurrencies with the stock market is not stable: it either rises or falls. And it will become clear in the foreseeable future whether bitcoin can become a hedge asset against the risk of unwinding global inflation at this stage.

- Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.
According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.
“There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,” said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. “This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,” says the financier. “You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.”

- An experienced cryptocurrency market expert Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins, shared a model that reflects the dynamics of bitcoin (BTC) prices in previous bear cycles. He studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.
The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower.
He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.
Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability over the past months. In addition to BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3.

- According to the analytical cryptocurrency platform Santiment, large bitcoin holders have increased their BTC savings by 46.173 coins (about $929 million) since September 27.
The list of so-called whales includes owners of addresses that store between 100 and 10,000 bitcoins. Analysts stressed that such activity by large coin holders is very rare this year. Apparently, bitcoins were bought with USDT stablecoins: the the latter's stocks in whales' wallets have fallen significantly.
It is quite possible that large holders expect the crypto market to grow. Indeed, bitcoin has been trading along the Power Point $20,000 for several weeks now, and this is an accumulation phase that should give way to an up phase. At the same time, 45.72% of all available bitcoins were stored on whale wallets at the end of September: this is the lowest figure in the last 29 months.
It has been repeatedly said that the fall in digital and other risky assets is associated with an increase in base rates by regulators in the United States and other world leading economies. However, financial analysts expect the Central banks of these countries to start cutting rates to combat the economic recession. This should push the price of bitcoin up.

- The bitcoin consolidation near the $20,000 level continues, and one of the tools used to determine the possible movement of the price of BTC is the Blockchain Center’s rainbow price chart. It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset.
In the long term, the chart indicates that bitcoin could hit six figures at $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the “maximum bubble territory” then, marked in dark red.
Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price of about $19,500 is estimated to be in the “Main Sale” zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin’s “HODL” status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.
The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 16, 2022, 02:14:08 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 17 - 21, 2022


EUR/USD: Market, Are You Crazy?

Throughout the first half of the week, EUR/USD moved sideways along the 0.9700 horizon as markets waited for the release of US inflation data. And it was on Thursday, October 14 that the Department of Labor Statistics of the country published fresh values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which exceeded the forecast values. In monthly terms, the September CPI reached 0.6% against the forecast of 0.5%, in annual terms - 6.6% against the forecast of 6.5% and the previous value of 6.3%.

The first reaction of the markets was quite expected. The DXY dollar index soared to 113.94 points (the highest value since September 28, when a 20-year high of 114.79 points was reached), the yield of 10-year treasuries updated a 14-year high, reaching 4.08%, and EUR/USD reached the level 0.9630. Risky asset quotes associated with the dollar by reverse correlation went down. The S&P500 index fell by 2.4% and updated its 2-year low. Dow Jones, Nasdaq and crypto assets behaved in a similar way.

But something extraordinary happened in less than one hour: all the markets, as if going crazy, turned 180 degrees all of a sudden. Moreover, for no apparent reason.

The dollar began to lose its positions rapidly: DXY fell to 112.46, and EUR/USD broke through 0.9800. On the contrary, the S&P500 was positive by the end of Thursday and grew by 2.6%. Analysts cite the strong oversold stock market as the main reason for this change in sentiment and the sharp increase in risk appetites. It is believed that stocks lose about 30% during recessions. At this stage, the S&P500 is down 27.5% during 2022. Therefore, some investors have decided that the bottom has already been reached or will be reached soon, and it is time to start buying. A large number of put options have recently been bought in the US market, on which profit-taking took place, and the freed fiat was used to purchase risky assets.

Despite the events of the past week, market opinion regarding the further increase in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve has not changed. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio has warned that the US will face a "perfect storm" of problems: a combination of debt, political infighting, and conflict abroad. But at the same time, despite the threat of a recession, the Fed will have no other choice to beat inflation.

The market has no doubts that the key rate will be increased by 75 basis points (bp) at the next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) on November 2. The largest North American financial derivatives market, CME Group, estimates the probability of this at over 90%. Moreover, it is possible that the rate will also increase to 75 bp in December (or, alternatively, by 50 bp in December and another 50 bp in Q1 2023). The peak of the rise is predicted at the level of 4.93-5.00% per annum, and this rate may remain until 2024.

As for Europe, the ECB representative and head of the Slovak Central Bank, Peter Kazimir, recently said that “raising the rate by 75 bps in October is appropriate”. However, this had almost no impression on the market. Economists at Commerzbank still expect the European regulator to raise the rate to only 3.0% by March next year. Thus, it will still be far behind the USD rate.

In addition, the energy crisis and the problems associated with sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine will also continue to put pressure on the common European currency. According to analysts at Commerzbank, the euro will start to recover only when investors bet more and more on the end of the crisis next year. In the meantime, they write, “a decisive tightening of monetary policy and a remarkably strong US economy make the US dollar the favorite currency of international investors.”

Thus, EUR/USD in the short term is still aimed south. And according to the forecasts of DBS Bank strategists, if it breaks through the important support level just below 0.9600, it may fall into the range of 0.8270-0.9500, which was observed in 2000-2002.

Following the release of September US Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the EUR/USD pair was trading in the 0.9750 zone at the time of writing the forecast on Friday evening, October 14. 55% of analysts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, another 35% expect it to move north, and the remaining 10% vote for a sideways trend. Among the trend indicators on D1, 90% are red and 10% are green. The picture is quite different among the oscillators: only 40% of them advise selling the pair, 15% are in favor of buying, and 55% have taken a neutral position.

The immediate support for the EUR/USD is at 0.9700, followed by 0.9670, 0.9630, 0.9580 and finally the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. The resistance levels and targets of the bulls look like this: 0.9800-0.9825, 0.9900, the immediate task is to return to the range of 0.9950-1.0020, the next target area is 1.0130-1.0200.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Tuesday October 18, when the German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is released. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) of the Eurozone will be known. And there will be data on manufacturing activity and the housing market in the US on Thursday, October 20.

GBP/USD: UK Changes Course

In general, the GBP/USD chart was similar to the EUR/USD chart last week, except for the volatility. The local minimum was fixed at the level of 1.0922, the maximum - 1.1380, thus the range of fluctuations for the five-day period amounted to more than 450 points.

The statistics on the UK economy released this week looked mixed. Friday, October 14, was the key day, when Prime Minister Liz Truss fired Treasury Secretary Quasi Kwarteng. Now, after this event, the markets are awaiting details about the country's upcoming mini budget. Former British Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt has been appointed as the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, and Liz Truss has announced a dramatic change in fiscal policy. However, this has not helped the British currency much so far: it was in the 1.1200 area at the end of the working week.

As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (75%) side with the bears, 25% have taken a neutral position, while the number of supporters of the strengthening of the pound is 0. Among the oscillators on D1, the ratio is 60% to 40% in favor of the reds. Among the trend indicators, only 15% are colored red, 40% are green, and the remaining 45% are neutral gray.

The nearest levels and support zones are 1.1100, 1.1055, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0925. This is followed by 1.0500-1.0740 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1300, 1.1350, 1.1400, 1.1470, 1.1500, 1.1610, 1.1720, 1.1800 and 1.1960.

Regarding the release of UK macro statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday, October 19, as in the Eurozone, and UK retail sales for September will be announced on Friday, October 21.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: How Much Will BTC Be Worth on October 9, 2024?

(https://i.imgur.com/kuxyz8n.jpg)

The crypto market was relatively quiet until Thursday October 13. The BTC/USD pair, despite the downward pressure, looked quite stable, holding positions around $19,000. However, it flew down  after the values of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) became known, following the stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. However, it never reached the June 19 low of $17,940, and having found a local bottom at $18,155, it then went up sharply, following the stock indices. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 14, the pair is trading in the $19.375 zone.

According to Amsterdam Stock Exchange trader Michael van de Poppe, bitcoin price volatility will increase in the second half of October. The US inflation data, along with the latest data on retail sales and labor market dynamics, will have a strong impact on both Wall Street and the cryptocurrency market. The next important point will be early November, when the Fed is likely to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.75%. Based on this, JP Morgan strategists predict a new collapse of the S&P500 index, by about another 20%. Thus, the unrealized loss of those who invested in the shares of the 500 largest US companies at the beginning of 2022 could exceed 44%. However, many crypto investors hope that, as in the case of the recent crisis in the UK, bitcoin will play the role of digital gold this time and will not collapse after other assets. It will become clear in the foreseeable future whether these hopes will come true.

If we look at the latest analysts' forecasts by color, the palette is as follows: short-term forecasts are dark black, medium-term forecasts are gray, and long-term forecasts are sky blue.

Among the dark blacks, this time, let's highlight the scenario of Zack Voell, who is a mining analyst at Braiins. He has recently shared a model that reflects BTC's price performance in previous bearish cycles. Zach Voell studied the behavior of quotes in all past periods between highs and lows, on the basis of which he predicted a fall in the BTC rate to $13,800.

The analyst emphasized that he studied the behavior of the bitcoin price in 2011, then in 2013-2015 and 2017-2018, as well as during the current cycle, which began in November 2021. According to him, the value of the cryptocurrency lost more than 80% of its peak values the last two times. If history repeats, the rate will fall to at least this mark and may even go lower. He noted among other things that the bearish cycle of 2011 led to a drop in the value of BTC by as much as 95%. However, this happened when the cryptocurrency was practically unknown to anyone and was not on the way to mass adoption.

Voell also noted that despite the negative sentiment, bitcoin was the most profitable asset in Q3 2022. Digital gold has shown extreme stability in the past months. (Apart from BTC, according to statistics published by NYDIG, only precious metals and fiat USD turned out to be profitable in Q3).

Now let's talk about what may happen in the last, Q4 2022. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, predicted a rise in the bitcoin price by the end of 2022. Digital gold and ethereum tend to outperform most major assets during economic downturns. Therefore, McGlone called the increase in interest rates by Central banks “a strong tailwind.” He noted that October has been the best month for bitcoin since 2014. At the same time, the analyst believes that ethereum's transition to the Proof-of-Stake consensus algorithm can help ETH and BTC gain a foothold above the $1,000 and $20,000 levels, respectively.

Such levels for ethereum and bitcoin will certainly not impress investors. Therefore, this forecast of the Bloomberg Intelligence strategist can be classified as neutral gray. Then move on to sky blue scenarios.

Paul Tudor Jones, a trader and founder of the Tudor Investment Hedge Fund, said in an interview with CNBC that he continues to hold a position in the first cryptocurrency. According to the influencer, the first and second most capitalized cryptocurrencies will be valuable “at some point” because of too much money.

That moment, according to Raoul Pal, could come when the Fed retreats from its plans to fight inflation by tightening monetary policy. This Real Vision founder and former Goldman Sachs chief executive said that the macroeconomic background is beginning to look attractive for investing in cryptocurrencies. Many investors are now in a state of extreme fear, fearing that the global financial system will soon collapse. And this could be a growth catalyst for risky assets like bitcoin and altcoins.

According to the businessman, investors are very negative and are playing it safe. Previously, the market had incredibly high amounts of investments, but the market does not work now, as sellers predominate over buyers. This situation may encourage the Fed to relax its monetary policy.

“There is currently no liquidity on the market, as only sellers are left there. I think this will cause huge problems in the future. Ultimately, businesses will demand more money to be issued and the situation on the market to be changed,” said Raul Pal. So once Central banks start printing money again, assets like bitcoin and altcoins will rise. “This is a sad state of affairs, but this is the real situation,” says the financier. “You will be able to see when the shift comes and use it to your advantage by investing in cryptocurrencies.”

A popular crypto analyst known as Dave the Wave accurately predicted the bitcoin crash in May 2021. He believes now that if bitcoin equals gold in the long term in market capitalization, this will be equal to an increase in its price by about 40 times. According to the expert, this global goal can be achieved within two decades.

The rainbow price chart of the Blockchain Center looks no less optimistic. (It differs somewhat from our forecast). It shows how past price statistics can help predict the future behavior of an asset. In the long term, the graph indicates that bitcoin could reach a six-figure value of $626,383 by October 9, 2024. The flagship cryptocurrency will reach the “maximum bubble territory” then, marked in dark red.

Additionally, the chart indicates that the current crypto winter may have bottomed out. It is noteworthy that bitcoin's current price is estimated to be in the “Main Sale” zone (marked in blue). Ahead of another bull run, the rainbow chart also shows that bitcoin’s “HODL” status will take effect at the end of the year when the asset trades at $86,151.

The color bars follow a purely logarithmic regression, which has no scientific basis. In addition, the bands have been adjusted to match past periods in the better way. However, the chart creators note that this is at least an interesting way to look at the potential future profitability of the main cryptocurrency.

At the time of writing, the total crypto market capitalization is $0.927 trillion ($0.946 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has climbed 1 point in seven days from 23 to 24 and is still in the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 26, 2022, 02:30:36 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/dH8s0hr.jpg)

- Most of the 564 crypto investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse think that bitcoin will continue to trade in the $17,600-25,000 price range until the end of 2022. Almost two-thirds (65%) of retail investors said that the regulation of the crypto industry was more attractive than a repulsive factor for buying digital assets. The figure was 56% among professionals.
Only a third of respondents admitted the possibility of flipping: the superiority of ethereum over bitcoin in terms of market capitalization in the next two years. After being asked to choose one word to describe the crypto industry, investors were almost evenly divided between opposite options: “Ponzi” and “future.”

- Katie Wood, the head of ARK Invest management company, shared her opinion on the capitalization of the first cryptocurrency. She predicted a rise to $4.5 trillion even when bitcoin was trading at $250. It was then that Wood asked Arthur Laffer, a well-known economist, and member of the US President Reagan's Advisory Board, to study the digital gold white paper. ARK Invest CEO was interested in the prospects of bitcoin as a unit of account, a means of preserving value and circulation. Laffer spoke positively about the first cryptocurrency. “I've been looking for this ever since we dropped the gold standard. Bitcoin is a rules-based monetary system,” he said. Laffer also compared the prospects for capitalization of digital gold with the size of the US monetary base.
Wood added that it was this conversation that prompted her to immediately invest more than $100,000 in bitcoin, which was 400 BTC at that time (about $8.0 million at the time of writing).

- The quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 next year, against the background of the approaching halving. This was stated by well-known trader Ton Weiss in an interview with Kitco. He also warned that the price of digital gold could fall to $14.000 before the bull market sets in.
According to Weiss, capital flows from Europe to the United States and the syndrome of lost profits can become the engine of growth. “They missed their chance to catch the low in 2018. This is another possibility. If bitcoin ever drops below $10,000, investors will immediately take advantage of this,” the trader explained.
He also noted the decentralization and resistance to censorship of the first cryptocurrency. According to Weiss, these characteristics will provide the asset with mass adoption. “We are seeing how governments, the Central Bank and ordinary banks freeze accounts. This year alone, we have seen how the West and the US confiscate funds from people because of their Russian passports,” he said.

- One of the events that could significantly push the price of BTC up is the halving, which is due to take place in 2024. This opinion is also shared by a well-known crypto trading specialist under the nickname PlanB. He provided an analysis of previous bitcoin price movements and made predictions for the future using a Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. His colleague was supported by another trader and analyst, Josh Rager, who also expects bitcoin to grow significantly after the halving in 2024. At the same time, in his opinion, growth should not be expected before this event.
As we know, the last bitcoin halving took place on May 11, 2020, when the reward for each created block was halved to 6.25 BTC. This reward will again be halved to 3.125 BTC per block during the fourth halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024.

- The legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has a slightly different opinion. He said that bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in about 32 months, but it would first fall to $13,000. The expert believes that the first cryptocurrency will find this bottom at the beginning of 2023 and will not show “impressive” performance over the next year and a half.
According to Brandt, the US Federal Reserve is not going to ease monetary policy. He assumes that the regulator will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at least twice more by the end of 2022 in order to combat inflation.
However, the analyst expects that the value of the first cryptocurrency will no longer depend on other markets at some point. “Bitcoin will eventually correlate with bitcoin,” Brandt explained. The expert also noted that the cryptocurrency will become the “main store of value” in the next 10 years.
Recall that Peter Brandt has been working in the financial markets for more than 40 years, he is the creator of the Factor Trading service, which provides expert reports and analysis of asset value charts. Brandt has repeatedly noted that bitcoin is one of the largest parts of his investment portfolio.

- According to an October survey conducted by the financial company Finder, the median forecast of analysts is that the price of BTC will reach $270,722 by 2030. They also think that the first cryptocurrency will be traded at $21,344 by the end of this year.

- His Majesty's former Treasury Chief, Rishi Sunak, became the new British Prime Minister on October 25. He was remembered for his benevolent attitude towards cryptocurrencies in his previous position. In his opinion, innovations can make payments cheaper and faster.
His department began developing regulation for stablecoins in 2020 and announced research on Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs).  The future Prime Minister stated in April 2022 that he aimed to turn the UK into a "global hub for crypto-assets technologies." Sunak instructed the Royal Mint then to issue NFTs, and the Treasury announced plans to legalize stablecoins.
However, the agency ruled out the use of algorithmic stablecoins as payment mechanisms in May, amid the collapse of Terra. The Treasury has also considered additional measures to protect against “stable coin” disasters like UST.
Twitter users recalled that Sunak is easy to navigate popular NFT collections, and when taken a blitz survey, he chose both bitcoin and ethereum from the two leading cryptocurrencies.

- The bitcoin community is divided over whether BTC will rise or fall next year. There is reason to believe that BTC is likely to collapse sharply in the coming months but will then rise in middle to late 2023. Most analysts and technical indicators suggest that it could drop to $12,000-$16,000 in the coming months. This correlates with a volatile macro environment, stock prices, inflation, Fed data, and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.
On the other hand, influencers, BTC maximalists and a number of other fanatical barkers claim that the price of the first cryptocurrency can soar to $80,000 and more. According to trader and analyst Kevin Swenson, we may see an 80-week bear market turn into a bull market around April. The deflationary nature of BTC, thanks to the halving, will contribute to this price increase.
Michael van de Poppe, CEO of trading firm Eight, has joined the cohort of analysts anticipating the rise of the first cryptocurrency. He believes that bitcoin has been consolidating around $20,000 for too long and should soon get out of the corridor to shake things up. “Bitcoin will break through all levels within two to three weeks. And I think it will be up. I think we'll get to $30,000."
The outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges also speaks in favor of a possible growth: this indicates that investors are withdrawing funds to cold wallets in anticipation of the growth of the first cryptocurrency.

- Other experts, on the contrary, believe that we will not see a surge either in the near future or in 2023. Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks has pointed out that there is a small chance that the coin could even crash to $3,500. “I think we will see a small bounce in the near future, then a wave down to $12,000-13,000, and then, I am afraid, we will move to $8,000-10,000, maybe even see a drop to $3,500,” he says. At the same time, Gareth Soloway warns that if BTC falls to $12,000 or below, it may not be profitable for miners to manage the ecosystem. This would mean that transactions are no longer being processed. And this, in turn, can not only damage the industry, but also destroy the bitcoin market.

- Frank Giustra, a billionaire who built his fortune on investments in the mining industry, believes that the US authorities will destroy cryptocurrencies sooner or later. He suggested that the US government plans to develop a jurisdiction for its own blockchain. “I think the US authorities really want to be ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of blockchain, not in bitcoin, but in a state-owned digital currency that they can fully control. Like all other countries, they don't need bitcoin competition. Therefore, I see BTC as a game against sovereign fiat money.” Giustra added that bitcoin has no chance of standing up to world governments.
The billionaire tried to convince crypto investors to invest in real gold. “If you invest in precious metals, the government will not be able to take them away from you when it destroys all assets not controlled by them in the digital world.”

- The correlation between the prices of bitcoin and gold over the past 40 days has reached a significant value of 0.5, which is a strong increase after it was almost zero in mid-August. At the same time, the volatility of bitcoin turned out to be less than that of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones. Accordingly, the price of the coin began to fluctuate less following the change in these two main indicators of the world's largest capital market.
Bank of America, in a letter to investors, expressed the opinion that “the decrease in bitcoin's positive correlation with the S&P 500 and the rapidly growing relationship with gold indicate that investors may be considering bitcoins as a relatively “safe haven” in a situation where there remains macroeconomic uncertainty in the world, and the “bottom” of the market may eventually be fixed.”

- As the most frightening holiday of the year approaches, there is another factor to consider when investing during this period: the “Halloween effect”. This is a popular sign among traders, which suggests that bitcoin and the stock market tend to perform well from the end of October to the end of May.
According to Finbold, BTC's price has only increased year-on-year over the past three Halloweens. However, it would be too reckless currently to assume that a digital asset could show growth for the fourth year in a row. But even stranger things happen in the world. According to estimates by 28,488 members of the CoinMarketCap community, the average implied BTC price on Halloween, October 31, 2022, will be $21,248, which is 65.17% lower than on the same day last year. Bitcoin was trading at $61,300 on October 31, 2021, with a market capitalization of $1.156 trillion, up 344.39% from BTC’s Halloween 2020 price of $13,794.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 30, 2022, 03:45:25 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for October 31 - November 04, 2022


EUR/USD: Is the Interest Rate Race Close to Its End?

EUR/USD grew until Thursday, October 27, and even rose above the landmark level of 1.0000, reaching 1.0092. The reason for this, most likely, was the hope of a number of investors that the ECB would raise the rate not by 0.75, but by 1.0 or even more basis points (bp) at its meeting. However, their dreams remained dreams. There happened exactly what most market participants expected: the European regulator raised the rate by 0.75 bp, from 1.25% to 2.0%. (Although this figure is the highest over the past 10 years).

The final statement of the Central Bank says that the ECB Governing Council has already made significant progress in abandoning the stimulating monetary policy (QE). There is not a single word in the text either that the interest rate will be raised regularly at the next meetings. The head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, also noted at a press conference that economic activity in the Eurozone is likely to slow down significantly in Q3 2022. Based on all this, market participants concluded that the ECB is counting on the recession in Europe to help it cope with inflation without a further sharp increase in rates. If the regulator acts as aggressively as the US Federal Reserve, such steps, along with rising energy prices, could simply plunge the European economy into the abyss.

Many analysts believe that the ECB will raise the rate not by 75 bp, but by only 50 bp at its next meeting on December 15. There is no January meeting in the calendar, and the rate will be increased by some "pathetic" 25 bp in February, reaching 2.75%. where it all will end.

Against this backdrop, EUR/USD went below the 1.0000 horizon once again. The growth of US GDP helped strengthen the dollar. With a forecast of +2.4%, this indicator increased by +2.6% q/q in Q3 2022, breaking a series of falls: -1.6% in Q1 and -0.6% in Q2.

On the one hand, this economic growth shows that it is able to withstand even greater monetary tightening by the Fed. On the other hand, it turned out that such an important component as the real estate market is actively shrinking. Investments here have fallen by more than 26%, and rates on 30-year mortgages have reached 7% per annum, which has sharply reduced demand for housing.

Of course, this is unlikely to stop the Fed from fighting inflation. But it may force it to act more cautiously. As for the next meeting of the regulator on November 02, the market is still confident that the rate will be increased by 0.75 bp, from 3.25% to 4.0%. However, regarding the Fed's next move in December, the federal funds futures market is inclined to a more moderate rise by 50 bps. But even if this forecast turns out to be correct, the difference between rates on the euro and the dollar will remain, which will support the US currency.

EUR/USD closed last week at 0.9964. 50% of analysts support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, another 20% expect a correction to the north, and the remaining 30% vote for a sideways trend. It should be noted here that when moving to the forecast by the end of the year, 80% of experts vote for the bearish scenario. Among the trend indicators on D1, only 40% are red, 60% are green. Among the oscillators, all 100% advise to buy the pair.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9900, followed by 0.9765, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. For the bulls, the first priority will be to break the 1.0000 barrier. Then they will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0100, 1.0250, 1.030 and 1.0370.

The most important event of the upcoming week will certainly be the meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, November 02, and the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management. In addition, the economic calendar can mark Monday October 31, when the data on GDP and the consumer market (CPI) of the Eurozone, as well as on the volume of retail sales in Germany, will be released. The value of the ISM Business Activity Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector will become known the next day, on Tuesday, November 01, and that of the US services sector on Thursday, November 03. In addition, we are traditionally waiting for a portion of statistics from the US labor market on November 02 and 04, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) of the country.

GBP/USD: Stake Larger Than Life

In general, the dynamics of GBP/USD followed the dynamics of the EUR/USD last week. The five-day low was recorded at 1.1257, the high was 1.1645, and the finish was at 1.1615. The coming week, or rather its second half, is expected to be much more turbulent, since in addition to the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, a meeting of the Bank of England is also due on Thursday, November 03.

There was such an old Polish adventure series called Stake Larger Than Life. In our case, the decision of the British Central Bank on the interest rate will determine how the pound will continue to live. And the fact that it will face numerous “adventures” is for sure.

At the height of the fiscal policy fiasco, the market briefly predicted that the pound rate would reach 3.90% after the November meeting. However, investors' appetites have subsided considerably, and they would like it to rise from the current 2.25% to at least 3.0%, that is, by 75 bp. However, strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that the chances of a 50 bp rate hike are now higher, and this is a negative factor for the pound. Therefore, its further growth will be difficult. “The GBP/USD correction may continue to the 1.1750 area, but we doubt that this increase will last long,” ING says.

The opposite view is shared by their colleagues at Scotiabank. In their opinion, although the pound failed to break above 1.1650 on October 27, the pair will maintain a positive trend in the next few weeks. And the main support for it will be the level of 1.1400.

As for the median forecast, here the majority of analysts (50%) side with the bears, 15% have taken a neutral position, while the number of supporters of the strengthening of the pound is 35%. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, but a quarter of them are in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, only 35% are red, 65% are green. The levels and zones of support for the British currency are 1.1550, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1400, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1100, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low at 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1645, 1.1720, 1.1830, 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135 and 1.2200.

Of the events of the upcoming week, in addition to the mentioned meeting of the Bank of England, we can note the publication of the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the construction sector of the United Kingdom on Friday, November 04.

USD/JPY: The Mystery of the Pair's Collapse Is Revealed

(https://i.imgur.com/pEYfa0t.jpg)

As we predicted back in May, USD/JPY reached 115.00 in autumn, and it reached 151.94 on Friday, October 21, hitting a 32-year high this time. However, everything was clear in advance as for the growth of the pair. But what came as a shock was its subsequent massive collapse. The pair collapsed by more than 500 points within a few minutes: from 151.63 to 146.24. According to the Financial Times, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) sold at least $30 billion at that moment, in an attempt to support the yen. The pair turned around and soared again after this intervention: apparently, $30 billion was not enough. Another intervention followed on Monday, October 24, causing the pair to fall to 145.48. And then, a bounce up again. Last week's low was fixed at 145.10, while the last chord sounded much higher at 147.40. It is curious that all these jumps in the Japanese currency occurred against the backdrop of recent statements by Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida that "sharp, one-sided movements of the yen are undesirable."

Such over-volatility in USD/JPY suggests that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan will have to work hard to stop demand for the dollar against the troubled yen. “The Japanese authorities are really in a quandary,” ING analysts comment. “We can easily understand their interest in not drawing the 150.00 line, given the market is very volatile, but by allowing the yen to break higher, they risk causing a sharp sell-off of the currency that Tokyo would like to contain in the first place.”

"Unless the BoJ moves to a less dovish stance, foreign exchange intervention remains the most viable option," ING adds. But, apparently, BoJ is not going to tighten its monetary policy. The regulator remained true to itself at its last meeting last Friday, October 28 and kept the interest rate at a negative, ultra-dove level of -0.1%. So now the pair's dynamics depends on whether the BoJ has enough money to intervene to withstand a rise in rates by the US Federal Reserve.

At the moment, half of the analysts believe that there will be enough money. And therefore, they vote for the downtrend of the pair. 30% have taken a neutral position and 20% are waiting for another victory for the dollar. The oscillators on D1 have a mixed picture: 50% are looking north, 30% are looking south, and 20% are gray neutral. Among the trend indicators, 85% are on the green side and 15% are on the red side. The nearest support level is 146.90, then 145.30, 143.75, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05 and 137.40. Resistance levels are 148.45, 149.45, 150.00, 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above 152.00. Next are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week. The only interest is the publication of the report on the meeting of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Committee on Wednesday, November 02, in which market participants will try to catch at least hints of a possible change in the regulator's position.  In addition, traders should keep in mind that the country has a day off on Thursday, November 03, the National Day of Culture. And of course, one should not forget about possible “surprises” in the form of BoJ interventions in support of the yen.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Just a Rise? Or a Rise Before a Fall?

Following the growth of US stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) last week, bitcoin and ethereum went up, bringing joy to investors. Against the background of the fact that BTC/USD has not been able to gain a foothold above the $20,400 mark since September 13, the bulls can consider what is happening to be their success. However, it should be noted that the pair has been migrating along the $20,000 Pivot Point in the medium-term $18,100-25,000 side corridor for 19 weeks, since mid-June. So, the rise to the last seven-day high of $21.015 can only be considered a local micro-success, but not a reversal of the bearish trend.

Intense tightening of the Fed's monetary policy has already put the US economy on the brink of a recession. One more step, and recession will become inevitable. Some experts believe that the economic downturn could force the US Central Bank to abandon quantitative tightening (QT), at least for a while, without curbing inflation to the end. Against this background, the correlation between the prices of bitcoin and gold over the past 40 days has reached a significant value of 0.5, which is a strong increase after this indicator was almost zero in mid-August. Bank of America opined that "the rapidly growing relationship with gold indicates that investors may view bitcoin as a relatively safe haven in a situation where there remains macroeconomic uncertainty in the world, and the market bottom may eventually be fixed".

The bitcoin community is divided over whether BTC will rise or fall next year. There is reason to believe that BTC is likely to collapse sharply in the coming months but will then rise in middle to late 2023. Most analysts and technical indicators suggest that bitcoin could drop to $12,000-$16,000 in the coming months. This correlates with a volatile macro environment, stock prices, inflation, Fed data, and (at least according to Elon Musk) a possible recession that could last until 2024.

For example, the well-known trader Ton Weiss believes that against the backdrop of the upcoming halving-2024, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will reach $100,000 next year. But at the same time, he does not exclude the possibility of a fall in the price of digital gold to the level of $10,000-14,000 before the onset of the bull market. According to Weiss, capital flows from Europe to the United States and the syndrome of lost profits can become the engine of growth. “They missed their chance to catch the low in 2018. This is another possibility. If bitcoin ever drops below $10,000, investors will immediately take advantage of this,” the trader explained.

Many experts say that the upcoming halving could significantly push the BTC price up. This opinion is also shared by a well-known specialist aka PlanB, who predicts the price movement of the main cryptocurrency based on the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. He is supported by fellow trader and analyst Josh Rager, who also expects a significant increase in bitcoin, but only after halving in 2024. In his opinion, growth should not be expected before this event.

As you know, the last bitcoin halving occurred on May 11, 2020, when the reward for each created block was halved to 6.25 BTC. This reward will again be halved to 3.125 BTC per block during the fourth halving, which is expected to take place in May 2024.

The legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt is of the same opinion. He said that bitcoin would reach a new all-time high in about 32 months, but it would first fall to $13,000. The expert believes that the first cryptocurrency will find this bottom at the beginning of 2023 and will not show “impressive” performance over the next year and a half.

According to Brandt, the US Federal Reserve is not going to ease monetary policy. He assumes that the regulator will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points at least twice more by the end of 2022 in order to combat inflation. However, the analyst expects that the value of the first cryptocurrency will no longer depend on other markets at some point. “Bitcoin will eventually correlate with bitcoin,” Brandt explained. The expert also noted that the cryptocurrency will become the “main store of value” in the next 10 years.

Recall that Peter Brandt has been working in the financial markets for more than 40 years, he is the creator of the Factor Trading service, which provides expert reports and analysis of asset value charts. Brandt has repeatedly noted that bitcoin is one of the largest parts of his investment portfolio.

Now more details about the forecast for the next 2 months. Most of the 564 crypto investors surveyed by MLIV Pulse think that bitcoin will continue to trade in the $17,600-25,000 price range. According to an October survey conducted by financial company Finder, the first cryptocurrency will be trading at $21,344 by the end of this year.

The forecast of Eight trading firm CEO Michael van de Poppe is a little more optimistic. He believes that bitcoin has been consolidating around $20,000 for too long and should soon get out of the corridor to shake things up. “Bitcoin will break through all levels within two to three weeks. And I think it will be up. I think we'll get to $30,000." This growth is evidenced by the outflow of BTC from centralized exchanges: investors withdraw funds to cold wallets in anticipation of the strengthening of the first cryptocurrency.

Other experts, on the contrary, believe that we will not see a surge either in the near future or in 2023. Gareth Soloway of InTheMoneyStocks has pointed out that there is a small chance that the coin could even crash to $3,500. “I think we will see a small bounce in the near future, then a wave down to $12,000-13,000, and then, I am afraid, we will move to $8,000-10,000, maybe even see a drop to $3,500,” he says. At the same time, Gareth Soloway warns that if BTC falls to $12,000 or below, it may not be profitable for miners to manage the ecosystem. This would mean that transactions are no longer being processed. And this, in turn, can not only damage the industry, but also destroy the bitcoin market.

According to billionaire Frank Giustra, the end of the bitcoin era will be actively promoted by the US authorities, who will destroy cryptocurrencies sooner or later. “I think the US authorities really want to be ahead of the rest of the planet in terms of blockchain, not in bitcoin, but in a state-owned digital currency that they can fully control. Like all other countries, they don't need bitcoin competition. Therefore, I see BTC as a game against sovereign fiat money,” Giustra said, adding that bitcoin has no chance of standing up to world governments.

Of course, such statements are alarming. But we wouldn't be us if we hadn't finished our review on an optimistic note. According to the mentioned survey conducted by the financial company Finder, the median forecast of analysts is that the price of BTC will reach $270,722 by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday October 28, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $20,600 zone, the total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.005 trillion ($0.913 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose 7 points in seven days from 23 to 30 and moved from the Extreme Fear zone to the Fear zone. According to the creators of the Index, it is worth thinking about opening long positions at this point. Although, in our opinion, the situation is very shaky, and traders need to act as carefully and cautiously as possible.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 01, 2022, 03:42:50 PM
AllForexRating Portal Visitors Name NordFX Best Crypto Broker 2022

(https://i.imgur.com/YbB57PQ.jpg)

The NordFX brokerage company has received numerous professional awards for achievements and innovations in the field of crypto trading starting from 2017. The title of Best Cryptocurrency Broker 2019 according to the authoritative international online portal FxDailyinfo is among them. NordFX was again named the Best Crypto Broker of this year already, 2022, at the very end of October. This award is the result of a vote on the AllForexRating.com portal, which forms a single conglomerate together with FxDailyinfo and ForexAllnews.

The winners in the AllForexRating Awards nominations were determined by an open vote of the online portal visitors, which makes this award especially valuable, as it reflects the opinion of the professional community most objectively. And we are sincerely grateful to all those who have voted for NordFX, for such a high appreciation of our work.

The possibilities of margin trading in cryptocurrencies were especially noted during the voting. Thus, for example, traders only need $150 to open a trade with a volume of 1 bitcoin, only $15 for a transaction in 1 Ethereum, $0.02 for a trade of 1 Ripple and $0.001 for a trade of 1 Doge. Thus, even with limited funds (the minimum deposit is only $10 on the Fix account), a trader can use various trading strategies or form their own investment crypto portfolio.

Traders and investors also pointed out the benefits of the new Savings Account from NordFX, which represents a unique know-how developed by the company's specialists, based on DeFi technology. The world's most popular stablecoin, Tether (USDT), the rate of which is secured by real US dollars in a ratio of 1:1, is used as the account currency. DeFi benefits allow account holders not only receive passive income up to 30% per annum, but also increase their profits by trading independently in the financial markets. It is just enough to take an instant trade loan at only 3% secured by the funds placed on the Savings Account.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 02, 2022, 03:35:47 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/3AxP5j6.jpg)

- October 31, 2022, marks 14 years since Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper. The white paper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world.
The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared two years later, and the public has never been able to find out who wrote the document that underpins the multibillion-dollar industry. It is unknown as well whether it was one person or a group of people.

- UN Secretary-General António Guterres has noted that new technologies have “unsurpassed potential to improve the lives of people” but are also used to finance terrorism. “Terrorists are abusing new technologies to spread disinformation, foment discord, recruit and radicalize, mobilize resources and carry out attacks,” he said.
The UN plans to involve states in regulating the industry, to combat abuse of digital assets. Few countries, however, have begun work on regulation, and even fewer have “successfully applied it” to curb illicit activity. At the same time, cash and hawala, an informal financial settlement system used mainly in the Middle East, remain the predominant methods of financing terrorism.

- According to the Coin ATM Radar center, after the failure in September (minus 459 devices), the number of bitcoin ATMs in the world increased in October by more than 200 units and reached 38,823.
Robocoin installed the world's first such ATM in a coffee shop in Vancouver (Canada) on October 29, 2013. 348 transactions worth more than $100,000 were made through the device during the first week. This operator no longer exists, and the focus of distribution has shifted to the United States: the country accounts for 88% of the total number of bitcoin ATMs. Canada retains the second line of the world ranking with a share of 6.6%. Spain came in third on October 22, 2022, with 215 bitcoin ATMs, or 0.6% of the total. Recall that analysts at Grand View Research predict that the bitcoin ATM market will reach $1.88 billion by 2028.

- Former Goldman Sachs CEO and macro investor Raoul Pal has allowed the digital asset market capitalization to rise to $300 trillion in the next 10-15 years. According to him, the capitalization of almost all financial markets ranges from $200 trillion to $300 trillion. Pal believes that cryptocurrencies will also reach this level in the future as part of the “fastest and most massive growth” in history.
The expert's forecast is based on the amount of activity around the digital asset industry and Web3. Pal also noted an influx of $60 billion in venture capital investments over the past 18 months. He is confident that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will soar immediately after the end of the macroeconomic turmoil.

- The author of popular comics and books, American cartoonist Zach Weinersmith said that the only meaningful argument he heard from cryptocurrency supporters is that they do not want centralized power over money.” According to Weinersmith, gold can be used in this paradigm. Vitalik Buterin joined the discussion of his tweet and gave three arguments in favor of cryptocurrencies as money: 1. Gold is incredibly inconvenient and difficult to use, especially when dealing with unreliable parties. 2. It does not support secure storage options such as multi-signature. 3. Today, gold is less common than digital assets.
“So, cryptocurrencies are the best choice,” concluded the ethereum co-founder.

- Blockchain security firm Peckshield shared some horrifying statistics on digital asset theft on Halloween night. As of October 31, 2022, $2.98 billion worth of digital assets have been stolen, according to published data, nearly double the $1.55 billion lost in all of 2021.
October has broken all records, fitting its new nickname "Haktober". During this month alone, the attackers stole assets worth a whopping $760 million (although $100 million was recovered). After October, the second largest amount of stolen funds was in March, during which just under $710 million was stolen. Most of the losses were related to the hacking of the Ronin bridge used in the Axie Infinity sidechain, as a result of which $625 million worth of crypto assets were stolen.

- BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors would increase investment in crypto, albeit under certain conditions, such as "custody and execution that would be available in recognized, reliable institutions."
The BNY Mellon report notes that "nearly all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products." But at the same time, they are looking for ways to enter the cryptocurrency market safely, and not invest recklessly in the hope of high profits.

- Grayscale Investment has released the results of its survey. Experts planned to find out how ordinary Americans feel about the cryptocurrency industry. Only 52% of those surveyed agreed that cryptocurrencies are the financial future. And only 44% of respondents said they were considering investing in digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents (81%) agreed that cryptocurrencies need clear regulation rules.

- Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicts that bitcoin will become a reliable asset over the next 5-10 years that can provide investors with security in difficult times. The billionaire believes that the market capitalization of BTC is not yet large enough for the first cryptocurrency to act as a serious hedge asset. However, according to the businessman, everything can change around 2030, when the crypto market will grow and “take a large share of the global economy.” Bitcoin can be then treated as digital gold, investments in which can protect during a crisis.
The head of Coinbase admitted that he has now overestimated the chances of bitcoin to act as insurance against inflation. “I thought that the situation in the economy could draw more attention to BTC, but it looks like it’s too early,” the billionaire said.
Cathie Wood, manager of ARK Invest, shares a similar opinion. In her opinion, the capitalization of bitcoin will grow to $4.5 trillion, and it can become more valuable than most fiat currencies, including the US dollar.

- The cryptocurrency market flagship continues to trade above the $20,000 key level. Kitco News analyst Jim Wyckoff noted that bulls are technically dominating bears. The specialist does not rule out that consolidation may form on the market in the near future before the quotes move into a phase of stable growth. Wyckoff has not ruled out either that bitcoin could experience increased volatility in the coming weeks.

- An analyst aka Plan B believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new cycle. The expert predicts an uptrend for two reasons. First, thanks to the recent rise in the value of bitcoin, investors who collectively own more than 60% of the available coins have made profits. According to Plan B, this factor indicates the upcoming BTC price pump. Secondly, the RSI index speaks in favor of the increase in the value of bitcoin. The value of this technical indicator has recently dropped to its all-time low, that is, the market has fallen into an extreme oversold zone, so a reversal is inevitable.
Researchers at Glassnode agree with Plan B. Their latest report says that the bitcoin market is currently in an accumulation phase, leading up to a massive bull run. There is a trend at the moment, similar to what happened at the beginning of 2019 before the rapid increase in bitcoin's value more than threefold.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 03, 2022, 10:47:19 AM
October Results: NordFX Traders Prioritize Gold and Pound Once Again, NASDAQ 100 Among Newcomers

(https://i.imgur.com/156l51t.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in October 2022. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The absolute leader at the end of the month was a trader from Western Asia, account No. 1659XXX, whose profit amounted to 45,518 USD. This impressive result was achieved in trades with gold (XAU/USD), the British pound (GBP/USD) and with a fairly rare tool in the arsenal of traders: the NASDAQ 100 stock index (USTEC.C).

- The second step of the podium was taken by the representative of South Asia, account No. 1615XXX, with the result of 34,621 USD.Their profit was also received mainly through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

- The same gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD) as well as euro (EUR/USD) allowed another trader from Western Asia, account No. 1652XXX, to earn 30,501 USD and enter the top three.

The passive investment services:

- The long dormant signal of the MasterForex-V Trading Academy MF989923 became active in CopyTrading this month. This signal is a real long-liver, and has brought subscribers a profit of 546% in almost 8 years of its existence. Another "veteran", KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K, continues to increase its pace, it has brought profit to 239% in 546 days with a maximum drawdown of about 45%. The second signal from the same provider, ­­KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, looks like this: a lifespan of 214 days, a profit of 73%, a drawdown of just under 13%.

Among startups, we note the auto 250 signal (47% profit/18% max drawdown/20 days of lifespan). Here, as usual, we recall that, in addition to a short lifespan, aggressive trading is a serious risk factor. Therefore, we urge you to exercise maximum caution when choosing signals for a subscription.

- In the PAMM service, the situation with the leaders remained the same over the past month. The same manager under the nickname KennyFXPRO is on the first line. The capital on his KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been increased by 170% in 645 days. The TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account was also among the leaders, showing a 130% profit in 576 days. Both of these accounts have a very moderate maximum drawdown, about 20%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 10,261USD, was credited in October to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645ХXХ;
- next is a partner from Southeast Asia, account No. 1654XXX, who earned 5,202 USD during the month;
- and, finally, a partner from Southern Asia, account No.1660ХХХ, who received 3,932 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Summing up the results of the month, it should be reminded that traders have received another great opportunity to earn money. NordFX has a Super Lottery for NordFX clients this year, where many cash prizes ranging from 250 USD to 10,000 USD will soon be drawn.

It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 06, 2022, 09:57:24 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 07 - 11, 2022


EUR/USD: Slower, Longer, Higher

Overall, last week passed, as predicted, without any majorsurprises. The main event was the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, November 2, at which it was unanimously decided to raise the key rate by 75 basis points (bp) to 4.00%. This is the highest level since 2008. Such a move was quite expected. Therefore, the subsequent press conference of the regulator's management was of greater interest to market participants. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the meeting that although inflation must be reduced "drastically", monetary policy parameters can be changed as needed. The hint was that the pace of rate hikes could slow down from December, but the final rate level would likely be higher than previously thought.

The market received this message from the head of the Federal Reserve in different ways. Some decided that the US Central Bank kept the opportunity for further tightening of its monetary policy. Some believed that we in for the next, fifth in a row, rate hike by 75 bp in December. And some, on the contrary, took Powell's words as a signal that the basic step will no longer be 75, but 50 bp. That is, the vector of fighting inflation will change direction from “raising rates faster” to “raising rates more slowly, but longer.” Although, in this case, this is just a change of route, and the ultimate goal in both cases is the same.

Moreover, the market decided that the keywords here are not only “slower” and “longer”, but “higher” as well. Back in late October, the futures market predicted that the highest rate would reach 4.85% in March 2023. Now the peak of expectations has shifted to June, having risen to 5.1%. And the median rate forecast for the end of next year rose from 4.46% to 4.8%.

Many analysts believe that a slowdown in the Fed's monetary tightening (QT) will allow rival currencies to counter the oncoming dollar more effectively. Now the central banks of other countries are catching up, not having time to raise their rates at the same pace as in the US. If the Fed moves more slowly, they will be able, if not to overtake their American counterpart, at least to close the gap or catch up with it.

Following the FOMC meeting, the DXY Dollar Index moved up, hitting 113.00. The US currency strengthened against all G10 currencies, except for the Japanese yen. Then a reversal followed, and before the release of the data on unemployment in the US on Friday, November 04, it fell to 112.35, and EUR/USD consolidated around 0.9800.

Labor market data showed that non-farm payrolls in the US (NFP) stood at 261K in October, up from the 200K forecast but below September's 361K. The unemployment rate in the country rose from 3.5% to 3.7% over the month, while the forecast was 3.6%. The market took this as a negative signal for the dollar, DXY fell to 110.80, and EUR/USD went up and ended the week at 0.9958.

Overwhelming majority of analysts, 90%, support the fact that it will continue to move south in the near future, and only 10% expect a correction to the north. Among the oscillators on D1, 40% are green, the same number are red, and 20% are neutral. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is on the side of the green ones. 65% advise buying the pair and 35% selling.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 0.9865-0.9885, followed by 0.9825, 0.9765, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. For the bulls, the first priority will be to break the 1.0000 barrier. Then they will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0100, 1.0250, 1.030 and 1.0370.

Of the notable events of the upcoming week, first of all, we should note the data on retail sales in the Eurozone, which will be published on Tuesday November 08. There will be data on the consumer market (CPI) and the US labor market on Thursday, November 10. And on Friday, November 11, we will find out the value of the German CPI and the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index.

GBP/USD: BoE Failed to Help the Pound

If a slowdown in US QT is going to help certain currencies, the pound doesn't seem to be one of them. The Bank of England (BoE), as well as the Fed, raised the key rate by 0.75% at its meeting on Thursday, November 03, from 2.25% to 3.00%. This move was the strongest one-time rate hike since the late 1980s. However, this did not help the British currency, and it continued to fall, fixing the weekly low at around 1.1144.

It would seem that the new Prime Minister has been elected, tax cuts have been abandoned, and the rate has been raised. What else do investors need? First of all, they need confidence that the rate will continue to grow at the same pace. But there is no such certainty.

Following Jerome Powell, BoE chief Andrew Bailey hinted that the pace of rate hikes could be slowed down in the future. That is, the dollar will remain in the lead in this parameter. Although, according to Mr. Bailey, a repeat of the 1970s crisis is unlikely, the threat of a prolonged recession forces the regulator to act very carefully. It is important not to strangle the economy in the rush to defeat inflation and not to bring down the labor market. According to the forecasts of the Bank's economists, the country's GDP will decrease by about 0.75% in the second half of this year. At the same time, the decline will last until mid-2024.

Investors were also disappointed by the Retail Price Index published last week by the British Retail Consortium (BRC). Thus, the average prices in stores in October, with a forecast of 5.5%, in reality grew by 6.6%. Most of all, prices for food products rose, by 11.6%, and the “food basket” rose by 9.4%. According to the BRC, the reasons for the next jump in inflation are still the same as before: the energy supply crisis caused by anti-Russian sanctions and the lack of skilled labor, in the struggle for which employers are forced to constantly raise wages.

In such a difficult environment, the Bank of England will most likely not be able to stick to a certain line and will toss between tightening (QT) and easing (QE) its monetary policy, trying to find a balance. However, there is no guarantee that it will be able to do this, and such throws will cause increased volatility in the British currency quotes.

Against the backdrop of weak data from the US labor market, GBP/USD corrected to the north at the very end of last week and set the last chord at 1.1373. However, strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that it may soon retest the 1.1000 level. At the same time, when moving to a long-term forecast, one can hope for some positive things. For example, economists at the Australian bank Westpac predict that the pound will trade at 1.2000 by the end of 2023, and it will reach 1.2700 by the end of 2024.

As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, the advantage of bears over bulls is insignificant here: 55% to 45%. Among the D1 oscillators, 25% are on the green side, 40% are on the red side, and 35% are comfortably settled in the neutral gray zone. Among trend indicators, 65% are red, 35% are green. The levels and zones of support for the British currency are 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low at 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.1435, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1560, 1.1600-1.1625 1.1645, 1.1720, 1.1830, 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135 and 1.2200.

Of the events of the upcoming  week, attention is drawn to the data on the GDP of the United Kingdom, which will be published on Friday November 11. The forecast looks disappointing and foreshadows a fall in Q3 2022. by -0.1% (+0.2% in Q2).

USD/JPY: Intervention from BoJ: Yes or No

FX interventions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at the end of October helped stabilize the yen, and USD/JPY ended the five-day period at 146.64, in the middle of the 145.30-148.85 channel. At the same time, the country's finance minister, Shunichi Suzuki, said on Friday, November 04 that the government has no intention of directing the currency to certain levels through interventions. And that the exchange rate should move steadily, reflecting fundamental indicators, and monetary policy is up to BoJ.

Such a statement may put downward pressure on the Japanese currency, as there may not be new interventions, and the Bank of Japan is not going to leave the ultra-dove rate and will keep the rate at the negative level of -0.1%.

Recall that USD/JPY reached the height of 151.94 on October 21, having renewed its 32-year high. But then, within just a few minutes, it collapsed by more than 500 points, from 151.63 to 146.24. According to the Financial Times, at that moment, the Bank of Japan sold at least $30 billion in an attempt to support the yen. After this intervention, the pair turned around and soared again: apparently, $30 billion was not enough. And another intervention followed on Monday, October 24, causing the pair to fall to 145.48. The last chord sounded at 147.40 on October 28. A week later, on November 4, the pair finished less than 100 points from this zone, at 146.64.

65% of analysts do not exclude that USD/JPY will try to test the 150.00 level again, and if successful, to rise above 152.00. 25% believe that the Japanese Central Bank will decide on one or more interventions, and therefore vote for the pair's downtrend. 10% expect further movement in the side channel. The oscillators on D1 have a mixed picture: 20% are looking north, 40% are looking south, and 40% are gray neutral. Among trend indicators, the ratio of green and red is 50% to 50%.

The nearest support level is 146.40, then 145.30, 143.75, 140.60, 140.00, 138.35-139.05 and 137.40. Resistance levels are 146.85, 147.50, 147.90-148.00, 148.45-148.85, 149.45, 150.00, 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy are expected to be released this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC/ETH – Who Wins?

(https://i.imgur.com/yRb8z9Y.jpg)

Let's start with the birthday. Monday, October 31, 2022 marks the 14th anniversary of the birth of the flagship cryptocurrency. Satoshi Nakamoto published the bitcoin white paper on this day in 2008. The white paper described how the peer-to-peer payment system worked that would revolutionize the financial technology world. The bitcoin network was launched in January 2009. Satoshi Nakamoto disappeared two years later, and the public has never been able to find out who wrote the document that underpins the huge industry. It is unknown as well whether it was one person or a group of people.

Bitcoin has lived a very turbulent life during these 14 years. It rose and fell, then got back on its feet and fell again. It climbed onto the crest of the wave and fell into the abyss. Starting from scratch, it came close to $70,000 on November 07, 2021. And now it is trading in the $20,000 zone, having fallen in price by 70% in a year.

Of course, it is important to know what happened before. But we are much more concerned about what the future holds for us. And here the forecasts of experts are volatile as well as the quotes of bitcoin itself are volatile. Some predict the inevitable death of the crypto market for the umpteenth time, while others expect a take off to unprecedented heights. For example, ARK Invest fund manager Cathie Wood believes that the capitalization of bitcoin will grow to $4.5 trillion (currently about $0.39 billion), and it will be able to become more valuable than most fiat currencies, including the US dollar.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong shares this opinion, predicting that bitcoin will become a reliable asset over the next 5-10 years that can provide investors with security in difficult times. The billionaire believes that the market capitalization of BTC is not yet large enough for the first cryptocurrency to act as a serious hedge asset. However, according to the businessman, everything can change around 2030, when the crypto market will grow and “take a large share of the global economy.” Bitcoin can be then treated as digital gold, investments in which can protect during a crisis.

Former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal is also looking ahead, allowing the digital asset market capitalization to rise to $300 trillion in the next 10-15 years. According to him, the capitalization of almost all financial markets ranges from $200 trillion to $300 trillion. Pal believes that cryptocurrencies will also reach this level in the future as part of the “fastest and most massive growth” in history. He is confident that the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies will soar immediately after the end of the macroeconomic turmoil.

After the Fed's decision to raise interest rates again, risky assets sank down. However, poor data from the US labor market came to their aid. As a result, at the time of writing the forecast, on the evening of Friday, November 04, BTC/USD, together with the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices, turned north and is trading at $21,180, trying to gain a foothold above $21,000. However, it is not at all certain that it will succeed. And if the main risky assets start to fall again, the main cryptocurrencies may follow them.

Kitco News analyst Jim Wyckoff believes that the crypto market's flagship will succeed. In his opinion, in technical terms, the bulls now dominate the bears. The specialist does not rule out that consolidation may form on the market in the near future before the quotes move into a phase of stable growth. Wyckoff has not ruled out either that bitcoin could experience increased volatility in the coming weeks.

A well-known analyst aka Plan B also believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a new upward cycle. The expert predicts the growth of the coin for two reasons. First, thanks to the recent rise in the value of bitcoin, investors who collectively own more than 60% of the available coins have made profits. According to Plan B, this factor indicates the upcoming BTC price pump. Secondly, the RSI index speaks in favor of the increase in the value of bitcoin. The value of this technical indicator has recently dropped to its all-time low, that is, the market has fallen into an extreme oversold zone, so a reversal is inevitable.

Researchers at Glassnode agree with Plan B. Their latest report says that the bitcoin market is currently in an accumulation phase, leading up to a massive bull run. There is a trend At the moment, similar to what happened at the beginning of 2019 before the rapid increase in bitcoin's value more than threefold.

However, for the crypto market to go up, institutional investors must move from sell-off or hibernation to accumulation. The mood of the general public (the so-called shrimps) is of course important, but the mood of the whales is much more important.

BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors would increase investment in crypto, albeit under certain conditions, such as "custody and execution that would be available in recognized, reliable institutions." The BNY Mellon report notes that "nearly all institutional investors (91%) are interested in investing in tokenized products." But at the same time, they are looking for ways to enter the cryptocurrency market safely, and not invest recklessly in the hope of high profits.

As for ordinary people, we can cite the results of another survey conducted by Grayscale Investment. Only 52% of ordinary Americans surveyed agreed that cryptocurrencies are the financial future. And only 44% of respondents said they were considering investing in digital assets. At the same time, the majority of respondents (81%) agreed that cryptocurrencies need clear regulation rules.

The question of whether the regulation of the crypto market is good or bad is still open. For example, many experts consider the threat of increased attention to Ethereum from the SEC (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission) as negative factors.

It has been a month and a half since the leading altcoin moved from the PoW algorithm to PoS, after which the responsibility for building blocks has passed from miners to validators. The developers consider the main advantage of this change in the algorithm to be the reduction in network energy consumption from peak 112 TWh/year to 0.01 TWh/year. With regard to ETH, this practically nullified all the claims of environmentalists related to environmental pollution by miners. However, as a result of this step, the coin is increasingly moving away from what Satoshi Nakamoto introduced to the concept of cryptocurrency: the network has become more centralized and the SEC's desire to deprive ethereum of its cryptocurrency status has increased, replacing it with the status of a security and subjecting it to stricter regulation. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler hinted at this on the day of the transition to PoS.

At the same time, it would be naive to think that only ethereum will be in the clutches of financial regulators. Certainly, bitcoin will also be subject to sanctions. So both cryptocurrencies are on an equal footing in this regard. But in terms of network development and its prospects, ethereum has clearly overtaken its older colleague in the past few months. This is clearly seen on the chart of BTC/ETH. Since mid-June, it fell from a high of 20.3 to 13.0 and returned to the values of the beginning of the year.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday November 04, BTC/USD is trading in the $21,180 area, ETH/USD - $1,650. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.055 trillion ($1.005 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has not changed in seven days and is in the Fear zone, at the level of 30 points. According to the index developers, one can think about opening long positions at such a moment. Although, in our opinion, the situation is very shaky, and traders need to act as carefully and cautiously as possible.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 09, 2022, 02:26:58 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/LgrgLhl.jpg)

- The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange collapsed the crypto market. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. The relationship between Binance and FTX is a complex and long story, starting with Binance receiving $2.1 billion for withdrawing from FTX investments.
Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao’s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. During the day, all BTC (about 20,000 units) were withdrawn from the exchange, and the exchange's balance is currently negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well. Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline.
Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao announced on Tuesday, November 08 that his exchange is going to buy FTX, which is facing a liquidity crisis. However, this is currently just an intention that is not binding.
Against the background of all these events, bitcoin fell significantly in price, falling by 14.2% on November 8: from $20,701 to $17,756. Ethereum “shrunk” by 28%, it fell from $1,577 to $1,135. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.853 trillion. As experts explained, “investors don't like to see any disruptions in any risky asset.”

- Nigerian presidential candidate Adewole Adebayo said that the introduction of the latest technology will help reduce unemployment in the country and promised to use blockchain and digital currencies to create 30 million jobs. His future administration intends to join forces with 2,000 local cryptocurrency companies to do this.
Residents of another country, Lebanon, whose national currency has fallen by 96% against the US dollar, see salvation in cryptocurrencies as well. Inflation has hit triple digits since August 2019, and the minimum wage has been cut from $450 to $17, according to CNBC. As a result, mining has replaced full-time jobs for some of the country's citizens.

- The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.
Cumberland, the cryptocurrency arm of venture capital firm DRW, also believes that a “promising uptrend” is forming in the volatile digital asset market. “The dollar's seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,” the firm said. “This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.” Another tailwind for digital assets, according to Cumberland, is the easing of geopolitical turmoil, namely the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the resolution of problems in supply chains.

- Many on-chain metrics, including Pewell's multiplier, RHODL Ratio, and Reserve Risk, signal that bitcoin is deeply oversold and is likely to reach the bottom of the bearish market. This is stated in October analytical report by ForkLog. At the same time, some indicators point to the risk of a new wave of redistribution and price consolidation in the range of $16,500-21,100.

- Having analyzed bitcoin’s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a “bullish megaphone pattern.” In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.
As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

- Speaking at Web Summit 2022, billionaire Tim Draper predicted that the price of the first cryptocurrency would rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. However, this prediction is not new at all. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.
Draper is confident that women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. “You can’t buy food, clothing, and housing with bitcoin just yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,” the billionaire added.
He also called digital gold an insurance against mismanagement and noted that cryptocurrencies prevent the government from controlling the population. “You saw speculators get out of bitcoin. Only hodlers remain, they're into it. They say it creates a freer and more trusting world. [Bitcoin] is an honest currency, not tied to banks and governments. It is decentralized,” Tim Draper explained.

- Mastercard Chief product officer Michael Miebach believes that it will take longer than expected for cryptocurrency to become mainstream. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.
Like Tim Draper, Miebach sees a future world where the majority of consumers around the world use bitcoin in their daily transactions and settlements. However, he believes that this will not happen in the coming months: “I think there is a long way to go before cryptocurrency becomes mainstream.”

- The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has determined that cryptocurrency fraud falls into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.
ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include “getting an offer out of the blue,” “fake celebrity ads,” and asking a “Put option partner you only know online” to send money in crypto.
Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits "for tax purposes" or offering "free money" or "guaranteed" investment income.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 11, 2022, 02:26:00 PM
NordFX Is Named Most Reliable Forex Broker Asia 2022 by Finance Derivative Awards

(https://i.imgur.com/F1bgB8u.jpg)

Finance Derivative magazine announced the Awards 2022. The overall winners for Sustainable Banks, Internet, Retail, SME, Innovative Banks and Forex Broker and Asset Management Company were announced. NordFX brokerage company is among the winners.

This year, nearly 500 individual companies & banks from around the world entered the competition. The Awards judging panel was comprised of representatives from global leaders in consulting, technology, and outsourcing solutions. Based on the judge’s panel evaluations, Finance Derivative’s Editor made the final selections.

“We would like to congratulate you and offer special recognition and appreciation for your outstanding performance and dedication to excellence, honoring your outstanding performance", the editorial letter reads. “We are delighted to announce that NordFX is the Winner for the Category Most Reliable Forex Broker Asia 2022”.

Finance Derivative is a global finance and business analysis magazine, published by FM. Publishing, Netherlands. Being one of prime print and online magazines providing broad coverage and analysis of the Finance industry, International Business and the global economy empowering the businesses and Corporate Companies around the world. The leadership articles are read by industry professionals at all levels of banking, financial services, payment solutions and insurance as well as technology and consulting executives.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 13, 2022, 03:27:01 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for November 14 - 18, 2022


EUR/USD: Is the Dollar's Growth Over?

(https://i.imgur.com/6d1xriG.jpg)

Has the dollar rally come to an end? The answer to this question sounds more and more affirmative day by day. The reason for the weakening of the US currency lies in the interest rate of the Fed. This, in turn, depends on the state of the labor market and inflation in the US, which determine the regulator's monetary policy.

Recent data have shown that the labor market is doing well at least. The number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) was 261K in October, which is higher than the forecast of 200K. Although the number of initial jobless claims increased, the growth was insignificant and, with the forecast of 220K, it actually amounted to 225K (218K a month ago).

As for inflation, the data published on Thursday, November 10, turned out to be much better than both previous values and forecasts. Core consumer inflation (CPI) increased by 0.3% in October, which is lower than both the forecast of 0.5% and the previous September value of 0.6%. The annual growth rate of core inflation slowed down to 6.3% (against the forecast of 6.5%, and 6.6% a month ago).

This rate of change in CPI is the slowest in the last 9 months and suggests that a series of sharp interest rate increases have finally had the desired effect. Market participants have immediately decided that the Fed is now likely to slow down the pace of interest rate increases. As a result, the DXY Dollar Index went into a steep peak, losing 2.1%, which was a record drop since December 2015.

The probability that the US Federal Reserve will increase the rate by 75 basis points (bp) at the next December meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) is now close to zero. The futures market expects it to rise by only 50 bp. The maximum value of the rate in 2023 is now predicted at 4.9%, and it can be reached in May (a forecast a week ago predicted a peak of 5.14% in June).

All this does not exclude a new wave of dollar strengthening in the coming months of course. But much will depend on the geopolitical situation and the actions of other regulators. Many analysts believe that a slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening by the Fed (QT) will allow rival currencies to counter the dollar more effectively. The Central Banks of other countries are currently playing the role of catching up, not having time to raise their rates at the same pace as in the United States. If the Fed moves more slowly (and at some point, slows down altogether), they will be able, if not to overtake their American counterpart, at least to close the gap or catch up with it.

Here we can cite the Eurozone as an example. According to preliminary Eurostat data for October, inflation here reached a record 10.7%. And this despite the fact that the target level of the ECB is only 2.0%. So, as stated by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, the regulator has no choice but to continue to raise rates, even despite the slowdown in economic growth.

The change in market sentiment resulted in a northward reversal of the EUR/USD pair. It was trading in the 0.9750 zone just a week ago, on November 04, and it fixed a local maximum at the height of 1.0363 on Friday, November 11. The last chord of the five-day period sounded almost nearby, at the level of 1.0357.

Most analysts expect the pair to return to the south in the near future, 60%, and only 10% expect further movement to the north. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east.  The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while a third of them are in the overbought zone. Among trend indicators, the green ones also have an advantage: 85% advise buying the pair and 15% advise selling. The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 1.0315, followed by the levels and zones at 1.0254, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580, and finally the September 28 low of 0.95. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0375, 1.0470, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

Highlights of the upcoming week include the release of preliminary Eurozone GDP data on Tuesday November 15. The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US will be announced on the same day. Data on retail sales in the US will arrive on Wednesday, October 16, and the market will be waiting for the publication of such an important inflation indicator as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone on Thursday, October 17. In addition, ECB President Christine Lagarde is scheduled to speak on November 16 and 18.

GBP/USD: UK Economy Plunged into Recession

Recall that the Bank of England (BoE), raised the key rate by 0.75%, from 2.25% to 3.00%, at its meeting on November 3, as well as the Fed. This move was the strongest one-time rate hike since the late 1980s. At the same time, the head of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, said on Friday November 11 that "more interest rate hikes are likely in the coming months" and that "efforts to curb inflation are likely to take from 18 months to two years." Silvana Tenreiro, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the British Central Bank, announced approximately the same dates. According to her, monetary policy will have to be loosened, possibly in 2024.

However, it is not yet clear when and how much the BoE will raise the pound rate. The United Kingdom's GDP data released last week, although below the forecast of -0.5%, still moved into the negative zone, showing a drop in the economy in Q3 by -0.2%. This was the first fall in 6 quarters, and it looks like it started the country's plunge into a long recession, which, if quantitative tightening (QT) continues, according to the Bank of England, could last about 2 years.

Economists at Bank of America Global Research analyzed how energy prices and the pace of Central bank policy normalization will affect G10 currencies. As a result, they concluded that the dynamics of the balance of payments will be a deterrent for currencies such as the euro, the New Zealand dollar and the British pound in 2023.

In the meantime, against the backdrop of data on slowing inflation in the US, GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, went up, adding almost 555 points over the week and reaching the weekly high at 1.1854. The final point of the trading session was set at 1.1843. And, according to the strategists at the American investment bank Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH), the pound may soon test the August 26 high at 1.1900.

As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here the bulls have received 25% of the vote, the bears 35%, and the remaining 40% of experts prefer to remain neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, of which 25% signal that the pair is overbought. Among trend indicators, the situation is exactly the same as in the case of EUR/USD: 85% to 15% in favor of the greens. Levels and zones of support for the British currency: 1.1800-1.1830, 1.1700-1.1715, 1.1645, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the bulls will meet resistance at the levels 1.1900, 1.1960, 1.2135, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Of the events of the upcoming week, data on unemployment and wages in the UK, which will be released on Tuesday 15 November attract attention. The value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known the next day, on Wednesday, November 16, and the UK Inflation Report will also be heard. And data on retail sales in the United Kingdom will be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, November 18.

USD/JPY: The Yen's Strength Is the Weak Dollar

it is evident that the fall of the dollar has not bypassed USD/JPY which, as a result, returned to the values of late August - early September 2022. The low of the week was recorded on Friday, November 11 at 138.46, and the finish was at 138.65. It is clear that the reason for such dynamics was not the strengthening of the yen and not the currency interventions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), but the general weakening of the dollar.

Recall that after USD/JPY reached 151.94 on October 21, hitting a 32-year high, the BoJ sold at least $30bn to support its national currency. And then it continued to intervene.

Finance Minister Shinichi Suzuki said on November 4 that the government has no intention to send the currency to certain levels through intervention. And that the exchange rate should move steadily, reflecting fundamental indicators. But the dollar has now retreated by almost 800 points in just a few days without any financial costs from the Bank of Japan, without any fundamental changes in the Japanese economy. And this happened solely because of expectations that the Fed could reduce the rate of interest rate hikes.

What if it doesn't reduce it? Will the Japanese Central Bank decide on one or more interventions? And will it have enough money for this? The second tool for supporting the yen, the interest rate, can probably be forgotten, since the Bank of Japan is not going to depart from the ultra-dove exchange rate and will keep it at a negative level -0.1%.

The fact that the dollar will soon try to win back at least part of the losses and USD/JPY will turn to the north is expected by 65% of analysts. The remaining 35% vote for the continuation of the downtrend. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 80% are looking south, a third of them are in the oversold zone, 20% have turned their eyes to the north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of green and red is 15% to 85% in favor of the latter. The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.45, followed by the levels 137.50, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones: 139.05, 140.20, 143.75, 145.25, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

As for the release of macro statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, we can mark Tuesday, November 15 next week, when the data on the country's GDP for Q3 2022 will become known. According to forecasts, GDP will decrease from 0.9% to 0.3%. And if the forecast comes true, it will become another argument in favor of keeping the interest rate by the Bank of Japan at the same negative level.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Two Events That Made the Week

The past week was marked by two events. The first plunged investors into incredible melancholy, the second gave hope that not everything is so bad. So, one at a time.

Event No. 1 was the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange. After it became known about the liquidity crisis of Alameda Research, a crypto trading company owned by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried, Binance CEO Chang Peng Zhao published a message about selling FTT tokens. Recall that FTT is a token created by the FTX team, and Chang Peng Zhao’s actions immediately led to a rapid drop in its value. FTX users began to massively try to withdraw their savings. About a billion dollars in cryptocurrency and stablecoins were withdrawn from the exchange, and its balance became negative. In addition to FTT, the price of Sol and other tokens of the Solana project, which is linked to both FTX and Alameda, fell sharply as well.

Other cryptocurrencies have also been affected by the decline. Investors do not like to see any failure in any risky asset, and they fear the domino effect when the collapse of one company threatens the existence of others.

Encouraging information came from the head of Binance: Chang Peng Zhao announced on November 08 that his exchange was going to buy the bankrupt FTX. (According to some estimates, the "hole" in its budget is about $8 billion). However, it turned out later that the deal would not take place. Quotes fell further down. As a result, bitcoin sank in price seriously, falling by almost 25% by November 10: from $20,701 to $15,583. Ethereum "shrunk" by 32%, from $1,577 to $1,072. The total capitalization of the crypto market has decreased from $1.040 trillion to $0.792 trillion.

There is no doubt that the collapse of FTX will increase the regulatory pressure on the entire industry. In the previous review, we started to discuss the question of whether the regulation of the crypto market is a good thing or a bad thing. It should be noted that the majority of institutions vote for regulation. For example, BNY Mellon, America's oldest bank, said that 70% of institutional investors can increase their investment in cryptocurrency, but at the same time they are looking for ways to safely enter the crypto market, and not mindlessly invest money in the hope of high profits.

Approximately the same has recently been stated by Mastercard Chief Product Officer Michael Miebach. In his opinion, this asset class will become much more attractive to people as soon as the supervisory authorities introduce the appropriate rules. Many people want but do not know how to enter the crypto industry and how to get the maximum protection for their assets.

As for the event No. 2 mentioned at the beginning of the review, it was the publication of inflation data in the US on Thursday, November 10. As it turned out, it is declining, from which the market concluded that the Fed may reduce the pace of raising interest rates. The DXY dollar index went down immediately, while risky assets went up. Correlation between cryptocurrencies and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq, lost at the time of the FTX crash, has almost (but not completely) recovered, and the quotes of BTC, ETH and other digital assets also began to grow.

At the time of writing this review, Friday evening, November 11, BTC/USD is trading in the $17,030 area, ETH/USD is $1,280. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.860 trillion ($1.055 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell back into the Extreme Fear zone to 21 points in seven days.

Cumberland, the crypto arm of venture capital firm DRW, believes a "promising uptrend" is emerging in the volatile digital asset market. “The dollar's seemingly inexorable rally ended up killing sentiment in all major risk asset classes earlier this year,” the firm said. “This rally seems to have peaked, probably as a result of expectations that the Fed will change course by mid-2023.”

Having analyzed bitcoin’s previous price action, including its upper highs and lower lows since November 2021, crypto analyst Moustache concluded that the cryptocurrency has displayed a “bullish megaphone pattern.” In his opinion, the expanding model, which looks like a megaphone or an inverted symmetric triangle, indicates that bitcoin could reach $80,000 around the summer of 2023.

As for the shorter-term outlook, some analysts believe that bitcoin could regain a critical support level by the end of 2022 and possibly even regain its $25,000 high.

The total volume of lost bitcoins, as well as digital gold in the wallets of long-term crypto investors, has reached a five-year high. This means that the active market supply of cryptocurrency is decreasing, promising optimistic prospects for prices, provided that demand increases or remains constant.

According to billionaire Tim Draper, women will be the main driver of the next bull market, as they control about 80% of retail spending. “You can’t buy food, clothes and housing with bitcoin yet, but once you can, there will be no reason to hold on to fiat currency,” he said, predicting the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $250,000 by mid-2023. It should be noted that this prediction is by no means new. Back in 2018, Draper predicted bitcoin at $250,000 by 2022, moved the forecast to early 2023 in the summer of 2021, and extended it now for another six months.

And finally, some information from the criminal world. Moreover, it concerns not only the future, but also the past and present, and is important for each of us. The Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) has studied cases of cryptocurrency fraud and has divided them into three categories. The first relates to fraud, where the victim believes they are investing in a legitimate asset. However, the crypto app, exchange, or website turns out to be fake. The second category of scams involves fake crypto tokens used to facilitate money laundering activities. The third type of fraud involves the use of cryptocurrencies to make fraudulent payments.

ASIC says the top signs of a crypto scam include “getting an offer out of the blue,” “fake celebrity ads,” and asking a “Put option partner you only know online” to send money in crypto. Other red flags include asking to pay for financial services in crypto, asking to pay more money to access funds, withholding investment profits "for tax purposes" or offering "free money" or "guaranteed" investment income.

In general, as Adventus Caesennius, legate of the Imperial Legion from the computer game The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim, said: “Keep your vigilance. It will pay off sooner or later."


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 16, 2022, 02:24:10 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/LwwoXrO.jpg)

- Cryptocurrency funds may lose up to $5 billion due to the bankruptcy of FTX. This is evidenced by a study by the analytical agency Crypto Fund Research. According to the experts, the crisis has affected 25-40% of industry investment structures that invested in FTX or its utility token FTT. Joshua Gnaizda, CEO of Crypto Fund Research, clarified that we are talking about 7-12% of assets under fund management.
Paradigm and Sequoia Capital reported that their potential losses due to the FTX crisis could be $278 million and $213 million, respectively. About $175 million has been blocked at the Genesis Trading brokerage company. As of November 8, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital investment firm had $76.8 million in FTX-related positions. Multicoin Capital invested $25 million in the US division of FTX, and also held $2 million in USDC on the exchange itself. Investments in FTX US through the Venture Fund II, created in July, amounted to $430 million. Crypto Fund Research experts have estimated the value of Pantera Capital's FTX-related assets at approximately $100 million.
Industry participants admitted on condition of anonymity that the losses of asset managers could be even greater. “The number of funds absolutely destroyed by this bankruptcy is just beginning to be revealed,” one of the sources said. Researchers expect a record number of investor requests for refunds from crypto funds in November, up to $2 billion. The previous high of $1.3 billion was recorded in June after the Terra crash.

- The FTX incident has shown that the cryptocurrency industry needs “very careful regulation.” This opinion was expressed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, writes Bloomberg. The The Treasury Secretary added that the consequences of the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried's empire could be even worse if the cryptocurrency market was more closely intertwined with the traditional financial system. “At least it's not as deeply integrated with our banking sector, and it doesn't pose more serious threats to financial stability at the moment,” Yellen said.

- While many investors around the world are panicking, experts at JPMorgan investment bank consider current events to be a positive catalyst. They said that the FTX crisis would benefit the industry and help it move several steps forward. The sudden collapse of one of the largest crypto companies will encourage regulators to speed up the process of forming regulations that allow effective control of the sector. And the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory framework will facilitate the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.
JPMorgan analysts had warned earlier that the fall of major cryptocurrencies is not over, and the crisis related to the bankruptcy of FTX could lead to “cascading liquidations”. The market decline will continue for some time, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. However, the JPMorgan team believes that the blow to total capitalization is likely to be less this time, as the TerraUSD episode has already caused a pullback in risk taking and a more wary attitude towards investing in dubious projects.

- MicroStrategy is not abandoning its strategy of buying and accumulating bitcoin, despite the continued market decline. This was stated by the executive chairman of the company Michael Saylor. He acknowledged that the situation looks like a "roller coaster" for digital gold. But at the same time, he recalled that bitcoin sank to levels that are still 33% higher than the levels when MicroStrategy first bought BTC in 2020. The company's shares have risen 38% over the period, outperforming tech giants like Apple or Amazon.
After acquiring 301 BTC worth $6 million in September 2022, MicroStrategy's reserves reached 130,000 BTC. The company has invested about $3.98 billion in cryptocurrency. The current value of the assets is approximately $2.25 billion.

- The People's Court of Shangrao (China) jailed a hacker for 10.5 years who, in the spring of 2018, used a Trojan to gain access to the imToken wallet on the victim's phone. During March-April, he made over 520 withdrawals for a total of 383.6 ETH. Subsequently, the attacker exchanged these coins for 109,458 USDT. After the hacker was arrested, the police returned all the stolen assets to the victim. In addition to imprisonment, the court fined him 200,000 yuan (about $28,000).

- A popular analyst named Dave the Wave told his 130,200 Twitter followers that cryptocurrency markets faced a huge loss of public trust after FTX filed for bankruptcy. However, Dave the Wave also reminded that bitcoin had previously remained in a long-term uptrend even when many announced its actual death. “Do not underestimate the speculative beast underlying the BTC market, as reflected in the LGC (logarithmic growth curve), which has demonstrated the ability to absorb the most terrible news and events,” the expert believes.

- Edward Snowden, a former CIA and US National Security Agency employee who once fled to Russia, shared his views on the crypto market. Snowden believes that after the collapse of FTX, the industry should switch to secure DEXs. Decentralized exchanges are an alternative to centralized exchanges and are managed solely by smart contracts without the participation of a third party. Thanks to full decentralization, DEXs in their original state should never face problems similar to FTX, as their reserves never fall below users' deposits.

- About three-quarters of bitcoin investors lost money due to the continued decline in the crypto market. This was stated in the Bank for International Settlements. BIS analysts analyzed data on cryptocurrency investors in 95 countries from 2015 to 2022. During the study period, the price of bitcoin rose from $250 in August 2015 to a peak of almost $69,000 in November 2021. The number of people using apps to buy cryptocurrency has grown from 119,000 to 32.5 million over the same period. In addition, the experts found that as the price of bitcoin rose, smaller users bought it, while the largest holders, on the contrary, sold it, receiving income from smaller users.
The study also found that the majority of new cryptocurrency investors (around 40%) are males under the age of 35, commonly referred to as the most “risk seeking” segment of the population.

- Bitcoin has stopped the fall caused by the collapse of FTX, and its supporters believe with a vengeance in its bullish future. Thus, experts from the cryptanalytical firm TradingShot conducted an “interesting fractal analysis at different time intervals”, which showed that if bitcoin stays above $16,628, its powerful rally is not ruled out in 2023. The results of the analysis suggest an increase in bullish potential, perhaps even up to $95,000 by 2024.

- Tesla CEO and new Twitter owner Elon Musk is confident that BTC will survive the bear market, although it will take a long time before its full potential is realized. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, also expressed optimism, who said that he is not concerned about the current price movement of the main cryptocurrency.
Elon GOAT Token (EGT) issuing company has created a monument to Tesla CEO Elon Musk “in honor of his many achievements and commitment to cryptocurrency.” The nine-meter aluminum monument, which depicts Elon Musk as a goat on a rocket, cost the company $600,000.  The company drew attention to the fact that the image of the goat is not accidental. The name of the animal in English is goat, and in the case of the sculpture, the authors encrypted the phrase “Greatest Of All Time” in this way. “We thought it was a fun and creative way to get the attention of Elon and the world,” the company said. We will deliver it to Elon Musk on November 26. The donation will take place at Tesla's headquarters in Austin."

- Former stockbroker Jordan Belfort, who served time for securities fraud and is known as the “Wolf of Wall Street,” shared tips for managing finances during times of high volatility.
Tip No.1: Invest in bitcoin for 3-4 years. “If you take a three-, four- or five-year horizon, I would be shocked if you didn’t make money,” the expert says.
Tip No.2: Don't look at anything other than bitcoin and Ethereum. Belfort believes that despite the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies, the attention of investors should be focused only on these two assets, as they have a solid foundation. In the case of bitcoin, limited supply and a rising adoption curve are key catalysts for an upward rally. As for Ethereum, it has become the first cryptocurrency to have really wide use cases in terms of decentralized finance (DeFi).
Tip No.3: Don't panic. “The whole crypto world is paralyzed by fear. [...] I'll say that if you get back into the game, this is the moment when the market is making the most money,” says The Wolf of Wall Street.
Belfort called the current market downturn a "cleansing." He also believes that the potential of bitcoin will be realized when the crypto sector becomes fully regulated.

- After cryptocurrency began to fall in price due to the bankruptcy of FTX, a video of Warren Buffet and Charlie Munger smashing cryptocurrency began to circulate on social networks. In a 2018 video, this legendary investor stated that the crypto industry is attracting a large number of charlatans who use people “who are trying to get rich because their neighbor is rich.” Then he said that cryptocurrencies are “rat poison squared” and a bad outcome awaits them. Buffett's right-hand man Munger, in turn, called cryptocurrencies "disgusting" and said that their price will fall to zero eventually.
“It turns out that old people really know what they are talking about,” economist Steven Geiger commented on the words of Buffett and Munger.

- Analyst Jason Pizzino opined that bitcoin bulls would not allow BTC to fall to $10,000. “We have a figure of $14,900 in the spot market as a cycle low and around $15,500 depending on which exchange you use.” According to Pizzino, “If we get above $18,500 or $18,600, that would be a strong indication that the whole thing was just a shake-up, and perhaps the losses will be offset during November and there will be a return to $20,000.”
“However, that doesn't mean that once we close above that $18,500, we can't go back down,” the trader added. “If the decline continues throughout November, then we will get a price of about $13,500, which is relatively well in line with the previous highs of the old 2019 cycle.”

- According to Morgan Stanley analysts, another sale may take place in the coming days. Traders will turn to selling due to the fact that BTC was unable to gain a foothold above $17,000. The result, most likely, will be a fall in the BTC rate below $15,000. In the event of such a rollback, the cryptocurrency can only qualify for immediate support in the $14,000 region. Moreover, Morgan Stanley does not exclude that bitcoin will find the bottom at $13,500 or even $12,500. But it will be the worst of scenarios.
Delphi Digital also came to a similar conclusion. Its report says that market consolidation has been delayed and that technical indicators hint at a new reset by the end of November. At best, bitcoin will be able to stay in the range of $14,000 to $16,000.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 21, 2022, 08:54:39 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 21 - 25, 2022


EUR/USD: The Pair Is at a Crossroads

We wondered at the beginning of the last review if the dollar rally had come to an end. Let us recall that the US inflation data published on November 10 turned out to be significantly better than both previous values and forecasts. Core consumer inflation (CPI) rose by 0.3% in October, which was lower than both the forecast of 0.5% and the previous September value of 0.6%. The annual growth rate of core inflation slowed down as well to 6.3% (against the forecast of 6.5%, and 6.6% a month ago).

This pace of change in CPI was the slowest in the last 9 months, confirming that a series of sharp interest rate hikes has finally had the desired effect. Market participants have immediately decided that the Fed is now likely to slow down the pace of tightening its monetary policy (QT). As a result, the DXY Dollar Index went into a steep peak, losing 2.1%, which was a record drop since December 2015. The American currency weakened against the euro as well: EUR/USD rose from 0.9935 to 1.0363 in two days, from November 10 to 11, breaking through the parity level.

The pair continued to grow at the beginning of last week:  it fixed a local maximum at 1.0480 on Tuesday, November 15, but then went down sharply to 1.0279, and ended the five-day period in the 1.3210 zone.

The main reasons for this behavior are the ambiguous macro statistics from the US, the hawkish forecasts of the Fed leaders and the vague statements by the head of the ECB. Let's start in order, with statistics. Data on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a reduction in inflationary pressure: the growth slowed down from 8.4% to 8.0%. US construction volumes rose to 1.425 million new homes in October, which was higher than expected. But at the same time, the September figure had been revised up to 1.488 million homes. As a result, the dynamics turned out to be negative. Statistics on building permits issued in October was also above the forecast of 1.526 against 1.512 million houses, but lower than the previous month­, 1.564 million. The manufacturing activity index of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia generally fell sharply to -19.4 points against -8.7 points in September, although the forecast for October was -6.2.

Things are quite multidirectional in Europe as well. Thus, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany turned out to be significantly better than both the forecast and the previous value (-36.7/-50.0/-59.2). But the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone pointed to an increase in inflation from 9.9% to 10.6%.

The second factor that determined the dynamics of the dollar was the statements by the leaders of the US Federal Reserve. Thus, if the Fed's chief hawk, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of St. Louis James Bullard, had earlier predicted a peak in the key interest rate in the range of 4.75-5.00%, he has now raised the bar by another 25 basis points to 5.00 - 5.25%. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daley shares a similar opinion, pointing to the target range of 4.75-5.25%. Atlanta Fed chief Rafael Bostic also said that monetary tightening and interest rate hikes would continue.

Note that, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will raise the base rate by 50 bps in December is 85%, while the probability of a rise by 75 bps is only 15%. Such assessments of the market can be considered quite neutral, since the American Central Bank is still ahead of its counterparts from other G10 countries in terms of monetary policy tightening. Thus, speaking at the Financial Conference in Frankfurt (Germany) this week, the head of the European regulator Christine Lagarde said that the ECB certainly “expects a further increase in rates to the levels necessary to ensure that inflation returns to the medium-term target of 2%.” But at the same time, she did not outline any specific steps. Moreover, Madame Lagarde emphasized that "it is necessary that the normalization of the balance occurs in a measured and predictable way." After such words, investors experienced a certain disappointment, which did not allow EUR/USD to continue its growth.

According to strategists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, the pair will fall again below the 1.0000 parity line in the medium term. "If the Fed remains a key driver for the dollar,  the ECB will continue to play a fairly minor role for the euro, which instead remains largely pegged to global risk sentiment and geopolitical/energy dynamics." At the same time, ING does not rule out a new mini rally for the pair in the short term.

Only 15% of analysts expect the pair to rise even higher to the north in the near future, 55% expect a turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 15% are in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is also on the side of the greens: 75% advise buying the pair, 25% selling. The immediate support for EUR/USD is at 1.0270, followed by the levels and zones at 1.0254, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580, and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0390-1.0400, 1.0422-1.0438, 1.0480, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

The calendar includes Wednesday, November 23, among the events of the upcoming week. A lot of macroeconomic statistics on the US economy will be released on this day. This includes data on unemployment, the state of the housing market, and the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods. In addition, the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve will be published.  Information on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be received on the same day. The United States has a holiday on Thursday, November 24, and an early closing of trading on Friday, November 25: the country celebrates Thanksgiving. But the value of the IFO Business Climate Index and the volume of German GDP will become known on the same days.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 21, 2022, 08:55:29 AM
GBP/USD: Gloomy Forecasts for the Pound

As in the case of the euro, GBP/USD rose not because of the gains in the pound, but because of the weakening of the dollar, caused by the latest US inflation data. As for the British currency, the fundamental background of the United Kingdom gives signals about the deterioration of the economic situation in the country over and over again. Thus, according to data published last week, the unemployment rate increased from 3.5% to 3.6%. The average salary level increased from 5.5% to 5.7%. Inflation, such as the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose in the UK in October to its highest level since 1982 and reached 11.1% (with a forecast of 10.7% and the September value of 10.1%). Retail sales (y/y) fell by -6.1% in October against the forecast -6.5% and the previous result -6.8%. It seems that the fall has slowed down here, but it is still a very strong fall.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt presented a new plan from the government of new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak on Thursday November 17, according to which budget spending should be reduced by up to 60 billion pounds. Given that this plan also included tax increases, GBP/USD could go down sharply again. However, as ING analysts commented sarcastically, "the pound has survived the long-awaited autumn announcement by the Treasury Secretary." The impact of tax increases on the economy may not be huge and should only affect high incomes and the energy industry. However, ING believes that it is still too early to talk about stabilization and believes as before that downside risks remain for the pair, as the dollar may start to recover towards the end of the year. As a result, the target for GBP/USD will be below 1.1500.

While ING thinks that the pound has survived Jeremy Hunt's speech in the short term, the economic situation in the UK still looks rather bleak in the long term according to experts from Commerzbank. The head of the Ministry of Finance turned out to be much more pessimistic than the average opinion of analysts. He believes that the country's economy is already in recession and expects a 1.4% decline in GDP (analysts' median forecast is -0.5%).

Of course, rising inflationary pressures in the UK could lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many experts, the regulator will still avoid drastic steps, since excessive tightening of monetary policy can generally knock out the economy for a long two years. According to forecasts, the UK's current account deficit will remain at more than 5% of GDP in 2023-24. The result may be a resumption of the downward trend of the British currency

The last chord of the week for GBP/USD sounded around 1.1880. The median forecast for the near future looks rather mixed: 40% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 35% prefer to remain neutral.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, of which, as in the case of the previous pair, 15% give overbought signals. As for the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the green ones. The levels and support zones for the pair are 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1715, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, the pair is for resistance at the levels of 1.1960, 1.2045-1.2085, 1.2135, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Statistics on the United Kingdom economy include the publication of the S&P Global Business Activity Index in the country's manufacturing sector on Wednesday, November 23. The values of a whole group of business activity indices will become known a day later, on Thursday, November 24: in the services sector, in the manufacturing sector and the UK composite PMI.

USD/JPY: What Awaits the Yen after April 08?

Well, what can we say about this pair? Actually, nothing new. “Uncertainty about the Japanese economy is extremely high,” said Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), speaking to the country's Parliament. And he added that his organization "will continue to ease monetary policy to support the economy and achieve a target inflation rate of 2% on a sustainable, stable basis, backed by wage growth."

The Japanese Central bank governor's comments come amid reports that the country's consumer inflation rate has hit a 40-year high. And, according to many experts, BoJ's super-pigeon position will not change until April 08, 2023. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda's powers in this post will end, where he can be replaced by a new candidate with a less dovish position. Before that, in Q1of the new year, an important factor determining the future monetary policy of the Central Bank will be the growth of wages in the country, which can lead to a revolutionary reversal of USD/JPY down to the south. After that, according to the forecasts of a number of experts, it may end 2023 near the level of 130.00.

As for closer prospects, the forecast of specialists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale will be interesting here. “USD/JPY has experienced a deep pullback after breaking below chart levels at 145.00. A break of 137.80 could extend the downtrend,” they write. “An initial rebound is not ruled out, but 143.50 and the lower end of the previous range at 145 are likely to be short-term resistance levels. Holding below 143.50 risks another leg of decline. The break of 137.80 could see further downside to 200-DMA near 134 and 132.50.”

The pair ended the last trading session in the 140.35 zone. The fact that the dollar will try to win back at least part of the losses in the near future, and USD/JPY will turn to the north, is expected by 40% of analysts. 15% vote for a breakthrough to the south and a new fall. The remaining 45% have found it difficult to make a forecast. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are looking south, 10% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones. The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.85-139.05, followed by the levels 138.45, 137.50, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones are142.20, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

No important events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected this week. It should also be borne in mind that Wednesday, November 23 is a holiday in the country, Labor Day.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 21, 2022, 08:57:04 AM
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Is There Life after Bankruptcy?

(https://i.imgur.com/JP3yZhT.jpg)

The bankruptcy of the FTX exchange remains the most discussed event. But if the main topic was the event itself last week, the focus of the discussion has now shifted to the question of what will happen to the crypto industry as a whole. Will it be able to avoid collapse and recover from its wounds? And what can be done to prevent similar upheavals in the future?

The FTX incident has shown that the cryptocurrency industry needs “very careful regulation.” This opinion was expressed by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, and she added that the consequences of the collapse of the Sam Bankman-Freed empire could be even worse if the cryptocurrency market had been more closely intertwined with the traditional financial system.

The head of the Ministry of Finance was supported by experts from the investment bank JPMorgan, who consider current events a positive catalyst. They stated that the FTX crisis would benefit the industry and help it move a few steps forward. The collapse of one of the largest crypto companies will push regulators to accelerate the process of forming regulatory rules that allow effective control of the sector. And the introduction of a comprehensive regulatory framework will facilitate the institutional acceptance of cryptocurrencies.

Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker who served time in prison for securities fraud and known as the “Wolf of Wall Street”, has also sided with law enforcement. He believes that the potential of bitcoin will be realized when the crypto sector becomes fully regulated. And this “Wolf” called the current market downturn “cleansing”.

As a result of this “cleansing” and a prolonged decline in the crypto market, according to the Bank for International Settlements, approximately three-quarters of bitcoin investors lost money. And according to a study by the analytical agency Crypto Fund Research, losses of cryptocurrency funds can reach up to $5 billion. According to experts, the crisis affected 25-40% of industry investment structures that invested in FTX or its utility token FTT. Joshua Gnaizda, CEO of Crypto Fund Research, clarified that we are talking about 7-12% of assets under fund management.

Paradigm and Sequoia Capital reported that their potential losses due to the FTX crisis could be $278 million and $213 million, respectively. About $175 million has been blocked at the Genesis Trading brokerage company. As of November 8, Mike Novogratz's Galaxy Digital investment firm had $76.8 million in FTX-related positions. Multicoin Capital invested $25 million in the US division of FTX, and also held $2 million in USDC on the exchange itself. Investments in FTX US through the Venture Fund II, created in July, amounted to $430 million. Crypto Fund Research experts have estimated the value of Pantera Capital's FTX-related assets at approximately $100 million.

Industry participants admitted on condition of anonymity that the losses of asset managers could be even greater. “The number of funds absolutely destroyed by this bankruptcy is just beginning to be revealed,” one of the sources said. Researchers expect a record number of investor requests for refunds from crypto funds in November, up to $2 billion. The previous high of $1.3 billion was recorded in June after the Terra crash.

JPMorgan analysts also believe that the fall of major cryptocurrencies is not over, and the FTX bankruptcy crisis could lead to “cascading liquidations”. The market decline will continue for some time, reminiscent of the 2008 financial crisis. That being said, the JPMorgan team believes that the blow to total capitalization is likely to be less this time, as the TerraUSD episode has already caused a pullback in risk taking and a more wary attitude towards investing in dubious projects.

Edward Snowden, a former CIA and National Security Agency officer who had fled to Russia, said that after the collapse of FTX, the industry should switch to secure DEXs. Decentralized exchanges are an alternative to centralized exchanges and are managed solely by smart contracts without the participation of a third party. Thanks to full decentralization, DEXs in their original state should never face problems similar to FTX, as their reserves never fall below users' deposits.

At the time of writing, Friday evening November 18, bitcoin has stopped the fall caused by the collapse of FTX and is consolidating in the $ 16,550-16,650 area. Such a lull after the tsunami gave BTC supporters a vengeance to demonstrate their faith in its bullish future. Thus, MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor announced that he is not going to abandon his strategy of buying and accumulating digital gold. Tesla CEO and new Twitter owner Elon Musk is confident that BTC will survive the bear market, although it will take a long time before its full potential is realized. Robert Kiyosaki, author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, also expressed optimism, who said that he is not concerned about the current price movement of the main cryptocurrency.

A popular analyst named Dave the Wave joined the chorus of optimists. He acknowledged that the cryptocurrency markets are facing a huge loss of public confidence. But at the same time, he recalled that bitcoin had earlier remained in a long-term uptrend even when many announced its actual death. “Do not underestimate the speculative beast underlying the BTC market, as reflected in the LGC (logarithmic growth curve), which has demonstrated the ability to absorb the most terrible news and events,” Dave the Wave believes.

BTC/USD has already lost long-standing support in the form of the MA200 weekly moving average. However, experts from the analytical firm TradingShot conducted a fractal analysis, which did not rule out a powerful rally in the main cryptocurrency in 2023. In addition, its results suggest an increase in the bullish potential of the coin by 2024 and, possibly, its growth to $95,000.

Analyst Jason Pizzino opined that bitcoin bulls would not allow BTC to fall to $10,000. “We have a figure of $14,900 in the spot market as a cycle low and around $15,500 depending on which exchange you use.” According to Pizzino, “If we go above $18,500 or $18,600, that would be a strong indication that the whole thing was just a shake-up.” “However,” the trader added, “that doesn't mean that once we close above that $18,500, we can't go back down. We would then have a price of around $13,500, which is relatively well in line with the previous highs of the old 2019 cycle.”

Morgan Stanley bank experts do not exclude a new fall. In their opinion, if BTC fails to gain a foothold above $17,000, traders will soon switch to sales. The result, most likely, will be a fall in the BTC rate below $15,000. In the event of such a rollback, the cryptocurrency can only qualify for immediate support in the $14,000 region. Moreover, Morgan Stanley does not exclude that bitcoin will find the bottom at $13,500 or even $12,500. But that would be the worst of the scenarios.

Delphi Digital came to a similar conclusion. Its report says that market consolidation has been delayed and that technical indicators hint at a new reset by the end of November. At best, bitcoin will be able to stay in the range of $14,000 to $16,000.

At the time of writing, BTC/USD is trading in the $16,600 area, ETH/USD - $1,200. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.832 trillion ($0.860 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for seven days has not been able to get out of the Extreme Fear zone and is at around 23 points.

Finally, a few tips from Jordan Belfort. Tip No.1: Invest in bitcoin for 3-4 years. “If you take a three-, four-, or five-year horizon, I would be shocked if you didn’t make money,” says this Wolf of Wall Street. Tip No.2: Don't look at anything other than bitcoin and Ethereum. Finally, Tip No.3: Don't panic. “The entire crypto world is paralyzed with fear. I will say that if you return to the game, now is the very moment when the most money is being made in the market.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 23, 2022, 02:35:22 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/geA96xE.jpg)

- A deepfake of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried was spread on Twitter, where he offered to take part in a cryptocurrency draw as compensation for the collapse of his exchange. The deepfake video directed people to a website hosting the “largest $100 million cryptocurrency giveaway.” To participate in the “draw”, the scammers offered users to send any number of coins to a specific address.
The fake account was quickly banned. Apparently, the scammers used an $8 Twitter Blue subscription to pass off a fake Sam Bankman-Freed profile as a real one. For reference: Deepfake is a technology for creating and replacing elements on existing videos using artificial intelligence and neural networks.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has recently shared a mysterious tweet that puzzled the cryptocurrency community. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Dumbfounded by the strange text, readers are now trying to figure out if Buterin is trolling or is really trying to say something to the community.
This veiled warning comes after a dark tweet by renowned venture capitalist Paul Graham. He stated there that the crypto economy was about to experience “systemic risk” and referred to information he heard from a trustworthy person. At the same time, he added that he "does not know anything specific." So, it's possible that Buterin was simply making fun of Graham's vague doom warning.

- In addition, rumors have spread that Vitalik Buterin is getting rid of his Ethereum holdings. The wallet he allegedly owns has sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million through Uniswap decentralized exchange. The question of whether this wallet really belongs to the Ethereum co-founder is debatable, but transactions were made with his other known addresses as well. These steps were taken in the middle of the night on Saturday, November 12, less than 24 hours after news of FTX's possible bankruptcy broke.

- Billionaire investor and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Bill Ackman is optimistic about the prospects for cryptocurrencies, despite recent industry events, including the FTX crash. “Cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and with proper oversight, they can benefit society and develop the global economy. All bona fide ecosystem participants should be highly motivated to expose and eliminate fraudulent projects, as they increase the risk of regulatory intervention,” Ackman said.
According to him, he was initially skeptical because he saw that the phone, the Internet and cryptocurrencies have “one thing in common”: “Each of these technologies helps the other in terms of improving fraud opportunities.” The billionaire also assumed that tokens have no intrinsic value and are simply a “modern version of tulip mania” but has now changed his point of view. The billionaire admitted that he has invested in several crypto projects. However, the share of such investments does not exceed 2% of his total portfolio.

- According to Happycoin.news, Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes. Belfort called FTX's business model a "fraternity house," which is more like a hostel than an actual business. In addition, in his opinion, all Bankman-Fried decisions can be equated to madness, and regulators need to focus on clients who lost money as a result of the exchange crash.

- A number of US senators have sent a letter to the management of the holding company Fidelity Investments, calling for a reconsideration of the option to include bitcoin in retirement savings accounts. It was supposed to be available to employees of 23,000 companies that use Fidelity to manage their $2.7 trillion retirement plans.
“The recent FTX crash has made it clear that the digital asset industry is in serious trouble. It's full of charismatic geeks, opportunistic scammers and self-proclaimed investment advisors who promote products without a proper level of transparency,” the legislators explained their move.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

- Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has “shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders” and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.
At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 to $3,200 in November 2018. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.
In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players “is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,” the report notes.

- The November fall in the cryptocurrency market resulted in a sharp increase in the number of unprofitable bitcoin addresses. According to the IntoTheBlock platform, the proportion of wallets that bought BTC at prices higher than today is now just over 51%. The total number of BTC holders is now 47.85 million, of which 24.56 million addresses are suffering losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone.
The last time a similar situation was observed was after the March market crash, IntoTheBlock analysts say. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in January 2019, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

- Dave the Wave, a well-known crypto analyst with over 130,000 Twitter followers, has published an updated Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support.
BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a drop did not last long in past cycles, and the cryptocurrency regained its long-term support quickly. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.
The analyst noted in a comment to his tweet that special attention should be paid to the closing of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to stay on the lower logarithmic curve and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

- American economist Benjamin Cowen is one of the best-known proponents of bitcoin’s cyclical nature and the cycle lengthening hypothesis. He has recently published a chart comparing the current bear market with the previous three. We see here the return on investment (ROI) of BTC of those who bought it at its absolute peak. The chart shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today.
On the one hand, 376 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI is 0.247. In previous bearish markets, it always fell below 0.2. If this happens now, bitcoin will face another fall.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. The cryptocurrency has fallen below $16,000, but Hayes believes that the story will continue to develop. The market is again on alert, as reports are received about the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a branch of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. The Genesis Credit Branch stopped the withdrawal of funds by customers on November 16. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding.
Binance was expected to join the deal. But the trading platform refused to participate in financing, fearing a conflict of interest. However, Genesis is not officially preparing for bankruptcy, and the funding target has been lowered to $500 million.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 27, 2022, 03:24:46 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 28 - December 02, 2022


EUR/USD: FOMC Protocol Dropped the Dollar

(https://i.imgur.com/UG4anxm.jpg)

Last week ended quietly: the US celebrated Thanksgiving. But its first part was marked by the weakening of the dollar, as a result of which EUR/USD rose by more than 200 points, from 1.0222 to 1.0448. It has risen above its 200-day moving average (SMA) for the first time in 17 months, since June 16, 2021.

The reason for this behavior of the US currency was the forecasts regarding the future policy of the US Federal Reserve. Market participants expect the regulator to slow down the rate of interest rate hikes significantly. And the minutes of the November meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), published on November 23, confirmed the validity of such expectations.

They state that “Some of the Fed's leaders have observed that monetary policy has reached a point where it is sufficiently restrictive to meet FOMC targets and it would be appropriate to slow down the rate hike. The vast majority of participants in the meeting considered that a slowdown in the pace of recovery is likely to be appropriate in the near future.”

At the same time, some of the FOMC members believe that the rate "should reach a slightly higher level than previously expected," since both inflation and the imbalance of supply and demand in the US economy remain at a fairly high level. Combining these two points of view, we can conclude that the peak of monetary tightening (QT) may be higher than previously planned, but the rise to it will be longer and smoother.

Recall that the Fed has raised rates by 75 basis points (bp) four times in a row, and the market is now expecting a 50 bp rise in December, with the prospect of moving to a step of 25 b.p. in 2023. The key rate for the dollar is 4.00% at the moment.

As for actions on the other side of the Atlantic, the ECB raised the euro rate by 50 bps in July and then twice by 75 bps, and it is at 2.00% now. The swap market estimates it will rise by 50 b.p. in December, with a probability of 62%, and by 75 b.p. with a probability of 38%. The European regulator may also move to a step of 25 b.p. next year. In this case, the gap between the rates on the dollar and the euro will remain, which will give EUR/USD an incentive to fall below the parity line of 1.0000 again.

It should be noted that the ECB's monetary tightening has not had a suffocating effect on the European economy so far. Moreover, there is a way out of the energy crisis caused by the sanctions imposed on Russia because of its armed invasion of Ukraine. The EU countries have decided to exclude Russian gas from joint purchases. European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson said that the EU managed to replace the Russian fuel completely with the help of energy resources from other sources. Gas storages, primarily in Germany, are already filled to the very neck. And the risks of Europe experiencing rolling blackouts or freezing this winter have been drastically reduced.

Against this background, the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the German manufacturing sector rose from 45.1 to 46.7 instead of the expected fall, while it rose from 47.3 to 47.8 in the Eurozone as a whole. The IFO business climate index in Germany has also started to improve: with the forecast of 85.0, it rose from 84.5 to 86.3 in reality. These macro statistics, along with Germany's GDP growth of 0.4% in Q3 (0.1% in Q2, the forecast is 0.3%), give the ECB the green light for further rate hikes. And this, in turn, according to a number of analysts, may push EUR/USD further up, to the zone of 1.0500-1.0600.

The week closed at 1.0400, above the 200-day SMA. Scotiabank experts believe that this could strengthen the bullish momentum. And their colleagues from Commerzbank say that the comfort level for the pair is likely to be between 1.0400 and 1.0500. In general, among the analysts surveyed, 30% of analysts expect the pair to continue to grow, and 40% expect it to turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 15% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is at the 1.0380 horizon, then there are levels and zones 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.9645, 0.9580 and finally, the September 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0430-1.0450, 1.0480, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

The coming week will be full of macroeconomic statistics. Preliminary data on such an important indicator as the level of consumer prices (CPI) in Germany and the Eurozone, respectively, will be released on Tuesday, November 29 and Wednesday, November 30. Data on unemployment in Germany and on GDP and the US labor market will also become known on Wednesday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on the same day. Thursday will bring information on retail sales in Germany and business activity (PMI) in the US manufacturing sector. We are traditionally waiting for another portion of statistics from the US labor market on the first Friday of the month, December 02, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the country's agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: How Long Will the Pound Continue to Grow?

Despite the gloomy global outlook for the pound, a bullish scenario worked in the short term, voted by most experts, 85% of trend indicators and 100% of D1 oscillators. GBP/USD hit its highest level in three months at 1.2153 on Thursday, November 24. As in the case of the euro and other G10 currencies, the reason for its growth was not the achievement of the pound, but the weakening of the dollar.

The final chord for the pair sounded slightly below the maximum, at around 1.2095. According to Scotiabank strategists, the British currency rebounded strongly enough from the all-time low of September 26 (1.0350) to hold on to current levels. Fiscal policy in the UK has stabilized, market confidence has strengthened, and the pair's uptrend has been fairly stable. These factors, according to Scotiabank, should help the GBP/USD quotes stabilize in the 1.2000 area for the foreseeable future, and possibly even rise a little higher.

Analysts at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, point to an even higher target. “We believe positioning has played a major role in the recovery of the pound, and GBP/USD could see further temporary gains towards the 1.22/23 area, which we see once again as the best level for the rest of the year,” they write.

At the same time, experts do not rule out a new bearish impulse and draw attention to the risks of the end of this year and the beginning of 2023, when the Central Banks of leading countries will raise rates during the recession. As we wrote earlier, rising inflationary pressures in the UK could lead to more aggressive rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many economists, the regulator is likely to avoid drastic steps, since excessive tightening of monetary policy could knock out the UK economy for two long years. According to forecasts, the UK's current account deficit will remain at more than 5% of GDP in 2023-24. The result of such careful actions of the BoE may be the resumption of the downtrend of the British currency

The median forecast for the near term does not give any clear guidance: 45% of experts side with the bulls, exactly the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 10% prefer to remain neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are on the green side, however, 25% of them give signals that the pair is overbought. Among the trend indicators, the ratio of 85% to 15% is in favor of the greens, like a week ago. The levels and support zones for the pair are 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100, 1.1060, 1.0985-1.1000, 1.0750, 1.0500 and the September 26 low of 1.0350. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2150, 1.2210, 1.2290-1.2330, 1.2425 and 1.2575-1.2610.

Among the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom, Thursday 01 December attracts attention this week, when the value of November's Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector will be known.

USD/JPY: The Yen Thanks the Fed

As an analyst wrote, "The whole world (except the US) thanks the Fed for the minutes of its meeting, which reinforced the dovish reversal, crashing the dollar and US bond yields, and gave respite to the fallen currencies around the world." Indeed, the DXY Dollar Index went down and 10-year Treasury yields hit a 7-week low.

As the yields on these US Treasuries declined, the Japanese currency was among the leaders of growth, and USD/JPY rushed to November lows once again, finding a bottom at 138.04 this time.

(Recall that there is a fairly stable correlation between US government bond rates and USD/JPY. And if the yield on securities increases, so does the dollar against the yen. If the 10-year Treasury bill yield falls, the yen rises, and the pair forms a downtrend).

Strategists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) say that if the dollar continues to weaken, the pair might retest the 137.70 area. ING strategists look even further here. According to their forecasts, if the yield on 10-year treasuries ends 2023 at around 2.75%, USD/JPY may end up in the 125.00-130.00 zone at that moment, that is, where it was traded in May-August 2022. As for the possible upward dollar rally this December, according to ING, it will not be able to lift the pair above the 142.00-145.00 zone. There is no question of updating the maximum of October 21 and a new assault on the height of 152.00.

In addition, we must not forget about Day X, which is scheduled for April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a less dovish position. Such a change could lead to a revolutionary push for USD/JPY to the south. After that, it could end 2023 exactly where ING strategists expect it to be.

As for the current situation, the pair closed last week at 139.05. Only 10% of analysts are counting on the fact that the dollar will try to win back at least part of the losses in the near future, and USD/JPY will turn to the north. 45% vote for a breakthrough to the south and a new fall. And another 45% find it difficult to make a forecast. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are looking south, 10% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% to 15% in favor of the red ones.

The nearest strong support level is located in the zone 138.00-138.30, followed by the levels and zones 137.50-137.70, 136.00, 135.55, 134.55 and the zone 131.35-131.75. Levels and resistance zones are 139.85, 140.60, 142.20, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs. around 158.00.

No important events regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Market of Rumors and Fears

BTC/USD fell to its lowest level in two years on Monday, November 21. It was also trading in the $15,500 area on November 21, 2020. The local bottom was found at $15,482 this time. The main cryptocurrency was kept from falling further by the growth of risk sentiment, which is pushing up the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices. Additional support was provided by the minutes of the last Fed meeting published on November 23, in which the market saw dovish sentiment. But despite this, cryptocurrencies are still under strong bearish pressure, and many experts believe that a new collapse is inevitable.

JPMorgan analysts have warned that the collapse of major digital assets is not over, and the FTX crash crisis could act like a domino and lead to “cascading liquidations”. And now the market is gripped by anxiety related to the possible bankruptcy of Genesis, a subsidiary of the Digital Currency Group (DCG) fund. This happened after the company failed to raise $1 billion in funding. Citing the difficulties of Genesis, the lending arm of the Gemini crypto exchange has already frozen the withdrawal of client assets. Bloomberg estimates their volume at $700 million.

Investors are already afraid of their own shadow. And then Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin added fear by posting a mysterious tweet. Without going into details, he wrote that "the rumor is that something important is about to happen." Almost at the same time, information appeared from somewhere that he was getting rid of his Ethereum reserves, and this alerted the crypto community furthermore. A wallet allegedly owned by Vitalik Buterin sold 3,000 ETH worth $3.75 million in the middle of the night, just hours after FTX crashed.

Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker convicted of fraud and commonly known as The Wolf of Wall Street, believes that the FTX trading platform's bankruptcy was intentional, and Sam Bankman-Fried is a sociopath who implemented FTX pump and dump schemes.

The author of the world-famous book Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, tried to soften the intensity of passions, saying that he still believes in the bright future of the two flagship digital assets bitcoin and Ethereum. According to him, bitcoin is not the same as Sam Bankman-Freed. The situation around FTX must be considered as a special case, and conclusions about the entire industry cannot be drawn only on its basis.

But it seems that investors are in no hurry to listen to Mr. Kiyosaki. Analytics firm Glassnode said in their November 21 report that recent market weakness has “shattered the confidence of bitcoin holders” and the looming crypto winter is following in the footsteps of its 2018-19 predecessor. According to Glassnode, most of the whales (wallets with more than 1,000 BTC) are now lying on the bottom, waiting for better times.

At the height of the previous bear market, bitcoin fell by 84% from its maximum. It took just under a year for the asset to fall from $20,000 in November 2018 to $3,200. It took about the same time this time to drop 77.3% and crash from $69,000 on November 21 to a new cycle low of $15,482. At the same time, some analysts believe that BTC should not be expected to recover soon, because several months had passed after the collapse of 2018 before the first noticeable upward impulse appeared.

In addition, last week saw the fourth-largest spike in realized losses with a daily volume of $1.45 billion. This dumping of crypto assets by long-term players “is often a sign of fear and capitulation among this more experienced cohort,” the Glassnode report notes.

According to the IntoTheBlock platform, out of 47.85 million BTC holders, 24.56 million addresses (51%) suffer losses. About 45% of wallets are still in the black, and the remaining addresses are in the break-even zone. According to IntoTheBlock analysts, the last time a similar situation was observed after the March market crash. At the same time, one of them added that the share of unprofitable addresses usually exceeds 50% at the moment when the market is at the bottom. Thus, he hinted that a more significant fall in the cryptocurrency should not be expected. However, statistics show the opposite: the share of addresses that suffered losses reached 55% in December 2018, and this figure exceeded 62% during the dominance of the bearish trend in 2015.

Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, has increased the negative outlook for bitcoin to $10,000. American economist Benjamin Cowen does not rule out another decline in quotations either. He has recently published a comparison chart of the current bear market with the previous three, which shows that bitcoin is at a very interesting point today. On the one hand, 379 days have passed since ATH (the all-time high). In the previous two bearish markets, this period was 363 days in 2018 and 410 days in 2015. On the other hand, the current ROI (return on investment) is 0.247. In previous times, it has always fallen below the value of 0.2, which indicates a possible further fall of the market.

Another chart was published by a well-known cryptanalyst named Dave the Wave. According to his charts, bitcoin is now right at the lower end of the long-term LGC, which has historically acted as support. BTC's history has already seen price actions below this curve: for example, in the 2015 bear market or during the crash at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. However, such a fall did not last long then, and the cryptocurrency quickly restored its long-term support. This usually signaled the end of the bear market and the start of a new bull market.

Dave the Wave noted in a comment on his chart that special attention should be paid to the end of the month. According to him, there is technically nothing catastrophic in the price action yet, but the lower border of the model is hardly holding. If bitcoin closes the month below $16,000, LGC support is highly likely to collapse, and the fall will continue. And vice versa: if it manages to hold on and bounce up, this may be a signal for the beginning of a new bull market.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, November 25), BTC/USD is trading in the $16,520 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $0.833 trillion ($0.832 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 23 to 20 points in seven days and could not get out of the Extreme Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 30, 2022, 05:08:36 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/G7ND4pm.jpg)

- A bull market will soon begin for bitcoin and other digital assets, but this will happen after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. This opinion was expressed by cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen.
The expert expects the 2018 crypto winter scenario to repeat. At that time, digital gold demonstrated several stages of gradual recovery. But growth became stable after quotes fell to the minimum of the bearish cycle. “When the market is bearish, we see the following stages constantly: a fall, a consolidation, a small increase, and a failure again. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst said. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. This is when we can expect the price to reach a real bottom and move to sustainable growth.
Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.
According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also referred to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

- Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. He added that he would not invest his own money or his clients' money in digital assets as "it's too risky." “But cryptocurrency is here to stay because there are some investors who still believe in it,” the famous investor “reassured” crypto enthusiasts.
Mark Mobius is not alone in his predictions. Deribit options data shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December.

- Analysts at IntoTheBlock note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.
At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now. A similar trend can be seen with extremely negative funding rates.

- Unlike Mark Mobius, Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, remains a bitcoin supporter and believes that this asset can still serve as an investment tool.
Lee agrees that the passing year has been a terrible year for the entire crypto industry. The macroeconomic events of early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two TOP-10 cryptocurrencies, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock came in November when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange, and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors questioning the fortunes of Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale. However, despite all the tragedy of the current situation, Tom Lee believes that the above events are a "cleansing" moment for the industry, and next year should be better than this one.

- Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, said that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.
Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It won't be easy to restore trust. Centralized companies will have to act differently,” the businessman said.
Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

- Analysts at investment bank JPMorgan believe that the cryptocurrency industry will change significantly after the collapse of FTX. Primarily due to stricter regulations. They cite the bill on the regulation of cryptocurrencies in the European Union (MiCA) as an example.
JPMorgan expects regulators to pay close attention to the issues of storing crypto assets and protecting consumers. These areas should lead to the same level of security as in the traditional financial system. Another way to protect consumers could be the separation of roles for cryptocurrency companies. When, for example, a cryptocurrency broker cannot be a credit service or provide custodial services at the same time. It is also important to ensure the transparency of the crypto business and oblige companies to provide periodic reporting on their status.
JPMorgan researchers do not expect a significant increase in the role of decentralized exchanges due to numerous restrictions for such sites. “We believe,” they write, “that centralized exchanges will continue to play a huge role in the cryptocurrency ecosystem for the foreseeable future. Especially for large institutional investors, even despite the FTX crash.”

- Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun.”
The crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

- Small retail investors (up to 10 BTC) are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis, according to a report by the Glassnode analytics platform.
It is reported that “shrimp” investors (less than 1 BTC) added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios after the FTX crash in early November, which is a “record high balance increase”. And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”
While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well.

- Texas Governor Greg Abbott sees bitcoin's value to the world, adding that his state “wants to be at the center of it all.” Abbott urged bitcoin companies to set up operations in Texas, promising that anyone who does so will be rewarded with ease of doing business and a lack of regulatory controversy.
According to a recent SmartAsset study on cryptocurrency-friendly states in the US, Texas ranked fourth along with New Jersey, behind Nevada, followed by Florida and California.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2022, 12:01:58 PM
November 2022 Results: A Difficult Month for Forex Traders

(https://i.imgur.com/rU8a4hy.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in November 2022. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed. The results show that November was not the best month for Forex traders.

- The maximum profit was received this month by a client from Western Asia, account No. 1652XXX, whose profit amounted to 24,789 USD. This solid result was achieved mainly in gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD), and euro (EUR/USD) trades.
- Gold helped their compatriot, account No. 1638XXX, to take the second step of the podium with the result of 19,260 USD.
- The third place belongs to the owner of account No. 1664XXX from Southeast Asia. Using various trading instruments (GBP/NZD, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, etc.), this trader made a profit of 15,597 USD.

The passive investment services:

- “Veteran” signal, KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K, continues to grow in CopyTrading. Ie brought the profit to 277% in 576 days, but its maximum drawdown approached 67% in November. The signal provider had to increase the leverage to 1:200 for the first time to get out of it. The indicators of the second signal from the same provider, ­­KennyFXPro - The Cannon Ball, look like this: 244 days of lifespan, 79% profit. At the same time, its subscribers avoided stress: the leverage did not exceed 1:43, and the maximum drawdown remained at the same level, a little less than 13%.

Startups include the Jhunjhunu signal (profit 547%/max drawdown 61%/lifespan 55 days). Here, as usual, we recall that such profitability certainly looks very attractive, but the subscriber should definitely take into account risk factors such as drawdown and signal life.
   
- However, as practice shows, a long lifespan and good trading performance in the past do not guarantee against future losses. Thus, two leading accounts in the PAMM service suffered significant losses in November.

The KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has been in existence since January 2021, and the maximum drawdown on it had not exceeded 20% until recently. However, the situation became more complicated last month, the drawdown exceeded 42%, and the account manager decided to close unprofitable positions. As a result, profits fell from 170% to 70% and returned to early 2022 levels. The TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account found itself in a similar situation: its maximum drawdown doubled as well, while profits fell from 130% to 44%.

It is clear that closing losing orders was a very difficult decision for these PAMM managers, and they made it in order to save at least part of the money. Perhaps, if they had acted the same as with the KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K account in CopyTrading, the losses would have been avoided, but the risk of a complete zeroing of deposits would have increased many times over. At the same time, it should be noted that the profit in both these accounts exceeds the interest on bank deposits many times even after the November losses.

Among the NordFX IB partners, TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission was accrued to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX, for the second month in a row. It was 4,924 USD this time;
- the next is their colleague from Southeast Asia, account No. 1660XXX, who earned 4,173 USD in November;
- and, finally, a partner from Southern Asia, account No.1618ХХХ, who received 3,742 USD as a reward, closes the top three.

***

Attention! The NordFX Super Lottery New Year's Draw will take place in just a month, on January 04, 2023, where numerous cash prizes from 250 to 10,000 USD will be drawn among the company's clients.

You still have time to join it and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2022, 12:24:42 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 05 - 09, 2022


EUR/USD: Focus on the US Labor Market

The DXY dollar index is down 5% over the past month. This is the largest monthly decline since September 2010. And the American currency lost more than 10% against the euro over the same period. EUR/USD was trading at 0.9541 back on October 28, and it reached the high of 1.0544 on December 2. There are several reasons for this, and the main one, of course, lies in the US Federal Reserve's interest rate forecasts.

The head of this organization, Jerome Powell, speaking on Wednesday, November 30, confirmed once again that the rate of rate growth in December may slow down. Market participants were finally convinced after these words that the rate would be increased not by 75 basis points (bp), but by only 50 bps in December. Thus, the futures market for the federal funds rate expects that there will be no increase at all in January, and the rate will be increased one or two times by 25 bps in February and March, as a result, its peak value will be 4.75-5.00%, and not 5.25%, as previously predicted. Then there will be a gradual decline and it will drop to 4.45% by December 2023.

Of course, this is only a forecast, but the market reacted to it with a sharp drop in US Treasuries. Thus, 10-year securities fell in yield to 3.5%, the lowest value since September 20, and two-year securities fell to 4.23%, which put strong pressure on the dollar. Moreover, the statement by the head of the Fed was made against the background of the publication of statistical data on the US economy. And it pointed, on the one hand, to a slowdown in inflation, and on the other hand, to the fact that the country's economy is quite successfully coping with rising interest rates and is not in danger of sliding into a deep recession. As a result, the risk appetite of the market began to grow, stock indices ( S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq ) went up, pulling cryptocurrencies with them, and the dollar continued to fall.

China also intervened in the dollar exchange rate. Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China Sun Chunlang said that the omicron strain of coronavirus is becoming less pathogenic due to the increase in vaccinated people. Therefore, the strategy to combat the pandemic is entering a new stage. The authorities will even allow some infected people to spend a period of isolation at home rather than in the hospital. This shift towards less stringent anti-COVID measures also had a positive effect on investors' appetite for investments in Asia, and the dollar received another blow, losing its attractiveness as a defensive asset.

The Fed chief's speech about avoiding a “collapse of the economy” suggests that the regulator wants to bring inflation down to its target level, while minimizing the rise in unemployment. Based on this, reports on the US labor market will soon be even more important than before. And this was clearly shown by the market's reaction to the macro statistics released on Friday, December 2. The unemployment rate in the US remained at the same level and was fully in line with the forecast of 3.7%. But as for the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector of the country (NFP), on the one hand, it turned out to be less than the October value (284K), but higher than the forecast of 200K, and amounted to 263K. The American currency reacted to this with a sharp increase, EUR/USD dropped to 1.0427. However, then the situation calmed down, everything returned to normal, and it finished at 1.0535.

Among the analysts surveyed, 50% of analysts expect the pair to continue growing to 1.0600, and 20% expect it to turn to the south. The remaining 30% of experts point to the east. It should be noted here that when moving to the medium-term forecast, the number of bearish supporters who expect the pair to drop below the parity level of 1.0000 increases sharply, up to 75%. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 25% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The immediate support for EUR/USD is located on horizon 1.0500, then there are levels and zones 1.0450-1.0467, 1.0380-1.0405, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, 0.9950-1.0010, 0.9885, 0.9825, 0.9750, 0.9700, 0.964, 0.9580 and finally the Sep 28 low at 0.9535. The next target of the bears is 0.9500. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0545, 1.0620, 1.0750, 1.0865, 1.0935.

We are in for quite a lot of macro-economic statistics this week. There will be data on retail sales in the Eurozone and ISM business activity in the US services sector on Monday, December 05. Data on Eurozone GDP in Q3 will be released on Wednesday, December 07. The number of applications for unemployment benefits will become known the next day, December 08, and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) - on December 09. In addition, market participants will be waiting for the speeches by the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde, which are scheduled for December 05 and 08.

GBP/USD: If the Dollar Falls, the Pound Rises

(https://i.imgur.com/cWzJVIe.jpg)

Business activity in the manufacturing sector of the UK increased slightly in November compared to September: the PMI rose from 46.2 to 46.5 points (against the forecast of 46.2). However, this did not have any noticeable effect on the quotes of GBP/USD: it moved almost in unison with EUR/USD, reacting to events in the US. The week resulted in the continuation of its growth from 1.2153 to 1.2310, the highest value since early August. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 1.2280.

Thus, the dollar weakened by about 1.2% against the pound over the week. And now GBP/USD is only a short distance away from the important level of 1.2450, which is the lower limit of the multi-year range from which it left at the beginning of this year. According to the strategists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, this is where a strong resistance zone is located. “A retreat from this barrier could lead to a pullback phase,” they write. “The October high at 1.1500, which is also a 50DMA, is expected to be the first level of support if the decline continues.” If the pair fixes above 1.2450, Societe Generale predicts that the upward movement may last to 1.2750 and even higher, to the 1.3250-1.3300 zone.

Of course, as we have repeatedly written, the actions of the Central Banks of the leading countries and how quickly and how much they will raise key interest rates in a recession will be decisive for exchange rates. It is possible that the growth of inflationary pressure in the UK may cause a more active rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE). However, according to many economists, the regulator is likely to avoid drastic steps since excessive tightening of monetary policy could knock out the UK economy for a long time. Recall that the main events of the end of this year are expected on December 14 and 15, when the Fed, ECB and BoE meetings will be held almost at the same time.

The median forecast so far is similar to that for EUR/USD: 50% of experts are bullish, 30% are bearish, and the remaining 20% remain neutral. At the same time, when moving to a medium-term forecast, the number of bear supporters increases to 80%. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% side with the greens, however, among the latter, 15% of them give signals that the pair is overbought. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2085, 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1600, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2290-1.2310, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2750.

Among the events concerning the UK economy, Monday 05 December will attract attention this week, when the November Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) and the UK Services PMI will be released. The change in the same indicator in the country's construction sector will be published the next day, on Wednesday, December 06.

USD/JPY: The Yen Thanks the Fed Once Again

The main trading range for USD/JPY for the last three weeks has been 137.50-140.60. It tried to move to a higher echelon on November 21, however, the published minutes of the Fed's last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting returned it to the set limits. As an analyst wrote at the time, “the whole world (except the US) thanks the Fed for the minutes of its meeting, which strengthened the dovish reversal, bringing down the dollar and US bond yields.”

Last week, the world thanked once again the Fed represented by its head, Jerome Powell whose speech knocked over the dollar on Wednesday, November 30 and the yield on US securities is even lower. USD/JPY broke through the lower border of the channel after the speech of this important official and rushed down, finding the local bottom at the level of 133.61.

The American currency could get a chance to win back losses as a result of the release of the official report on employment in the US on Friday, December 02. As mentioned above, the NFP value of 263K was higher than the 200K forecast, and USD/JPY jumped more than 230 pips to 135.98. However, then the market realized that unemployment remained at the same level, and these 263 thousand new jobs are the lowest since April 2021. The pair turned south again and finished at 134.33.   

Recall that 10-year US Treasuries fell to 3.5% after Jerome Powell's “epic” speech, the lowest level since September 20. And according to the forecasts of ING strategists, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, if their yield ends 2023 at about 2.75%, USD/JPY may end up in the 125.00-130.00 zone at that moment, that is, where it was traded in May-August 2022.

In the meantime, the forecast for the near future looks rather vague. 45% of analysts vote for the bearish scenario, 35% for the bullish one, and 20% prefer to remain silent. Although, in this case, most experts (70%) expect a serious strengthening of the dollar in the medium term. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 100% are facing south, 25% of them are in the oversold zone. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 100:0 in favor of the red ones.

The nearest support level is located at 133.60 zone, followed by levels and zones 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and zones of resistance are 135.20, 136.00, 136.65, 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.85, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00. Then there are the 1990 highs around 158.00.

Thursday, December 08 can be marked in the macroeconomic calendar, when the data on Japan's GDP for Q3 will be released. According to forecasts, this indicator will remain at the same negative level: a drop of 0.3%, which will serve as another argument in favor of the super-soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The next meeting of this Central Bank is scheduled for December 20, and it is likely to leave the interest rate on the yen unchanged at minus 0.1%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Cryptogeddon Instead of Crypto Winter

If the most frightening word for investors was "crypto winter" earlier, a new, much more terrible term has appeared in the current situation: "cryptogeddon" (similar to Armageddon, the place of the last and decisive battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil).

Everyone will probably agree that the outgoing year was terrible for the entire crypto industry. Macroeconomic events in early 2022, the collapse of Terra, which not only buried two cryptocurrencies from the TOP-10, but also caused a domino effect that destroyed many industry participants. A new shock in November, when one of the market giants, the FTX crypto exchange and related companies, collapsed. There are now rumors that cast doubt on the fortunes of the Digital Currency Group and its subsidiaries, two of which are Genesis and Grayscale.

The next victim of "cryptogeddon" was the BlockFi platform. It filed for bankruptcy last Monday. Creditors that will suffer the most from this will include Ankura Trust Company ($729 million), West Realm Shires Inc ($275 million), and even the SEC itself, the great and all-powerful US Securities and Exchange Commission ($30 million).

Miners are in huge trouble as the cost of mining bitcoin has fallen deep below the market price. Thus, according to MacroMicro estimates, it was $19,400 on November 29 at the price of $16.500 per BTC. This situation led to the fact that the losses of such an industry leader as Core Scientific Inc reached $1.7 billion, and it was also on the verge of bankruptcy.

(By the way, on December 6, Bitcoin will face the largest reduction in computation complexity this year. It takes more than 10 minutes now to find a block, and the expected correction will be from 6% to 9%).

Despite all the losses, the industry continues to hope for the best. The main forecasts are divided into 1) BTC/USD will fall again, but then it will turn up, and 2) the pair has already found the bottom and there is only a bright future ahead. Let's start with the first scenario.

So, Mark Mobius, co-founder of Mobius Capital Partners LLP investment company, shared his prediction that bitcoin will continue to fall, and its immediate goal is $10,000. This target is in line with options data from Deribit, which shows a large number of outstanding bitcoin put contracts, so called open interest, with an exercise price of $10,000 at the end of December.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen is waiting for the bull market to start soon. But this will happen, in his opinion, after a noticeable fall and reaching a real bottom. We are following a simple signal: the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the bitcoin price chart,” the analyst advises. According to him, such an intersection will take place on December 25-27. It is then that we can expect the price to reach the bottom and the transition of BTC/USDto a steady growth. According to the expert's forecast, the bottom has not yet been reached so far. In addition to not crossing the BTC price with the 200-day SMA, Cowen also refers to the Puell Multiple indicator. The metric value at the minimum was about 0.3 in previous cycles. The indicator has so far dropped only to 0.375 this year.

Cowen pointed to the duration of bearish markets, which has historically been about a year, as an additional argument for the future turn. The 2014 cycle lasted 14 months, and the 2018 cycle lasted 12 months.

Renowned crypto trader Ton Vays has described how bulls can end a year-long bearish market. According to him, they should push the price of the main cryptocurrency to the November high, and this will start an upward rally. “I want to see a move to $23,000. If there's a rebound, we'll need to hold on to $19,000 and then come back for a further $23,000. This is 95% to 98% likely to show that a bull market has begun,” he writes.

However, the crypto trader who predicted the collapse of bitcoin in 2018 accurately does not rule out either that bitcoin will soon face a new sale. “Another scenario is we will fall to $11,000. I believe the bull market will start right after that because I just don't believe bitcoin could fall even lower.” In any case, under any of these scenarios, Vays expects bitcoin to reach $23,000 later this year or early 2023.

The second scenario, the beginning of a bearish trend, is hinted at by IntoTheBlock data. Analysts of this company note that bitcoin is currently experiencing a sharp backwardance: a situation where BTC futures are priced much lower compared to the current price of the asset in the regular (spot) market. This suggests that the market is under strong pressure from sellers. Traders are actively opening short positions, hoping that the price of bitcoin will continue to go down.

At the same time, IntoTheBlock points out that the times when futures contracts are backward tend to coincide with market lows, as was the case in March 2020 and May 2021. And it can also be a signal that the cryptocurrency has found a bottom now.

This version is supported by small (up to 10 BTC) retail investors. According to a report from analytics platform Glassnode, they are becoming increasingly optimistic about bitcoin and have accumulated a record number of coins despite the FTX crash and the ongoing crisis.

Since the FTX crash in early November, shrimp investors (less than 1 BTC) have reportedly added 96,200 coins worth $1.6 billion to their portfolios, a “record high balance increase.” And now they own 1.21 million BTC in total, which is equivalent to 6.3% of the current turnover of 19.2 million coins. Meanwhile, “crabs” (up to 10 BTC) have bought about 191,600 coins worth about $3.1 billion over the past 30 days, which is also a “convincing all-time high.”

While crabs and shrimps were accumulating a record number of bitcoins, large investors were selling them. According to Glassnode, bitcoin whales have released about 6,500 BTC ($107 million) to exchanges over the past month. However, this is a very small fraction of their total holdings of 6.3 million BTC ($104 billion), which suggests that the whales remain somewhat optimistic as well.

Many influencers are also optimistic about the future. Tom Lee, head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and well-known analyst, said that the tragic events of 2022 mentioned above are a “cleansing” moment for the industry, the next year should be better than this one, and bitcoin can still serve as an investment tool.

Michael Novogratz, CEO of the crypto investment company Galaxy Digital, also thinks that digital assets will not leave the market, even though the industry is experiencing a crisis of confidence. “There are 150 million people who have chosen to store part of their wealth in bitcoin. […] Therefore, bitcoin, ethereum will not disappear. Other cryptocurrencies will not either,” he said.

Novogratz expects the recovery of the crypto industry and its slow growth. “You will see how people like ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood will soon enter the crypto market and invest. I don't think this will be a quick recovery. It will most likely take a long time. It will not be easy to restore trust,” the businessman said. Cathy Wood herself, according to Yahoo, answered “yes” when asked whether she still sticks to her forecast of the BTC price of $1 million by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, December 02), BTC/USD is trading well below the coveted $1 million, in the $17,040 zone. Its correlation with stock market indices (S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq) has almost recovered. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 20 to 27 points in seven days and finally got out of the Extreme Fear zone into the Fear zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market has also grown slightly and stands at $0.859 trillion ($0.833 trillion a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 07, 2022, 02:21:13 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ulk1SP7.jpg)

- According to a Bloomberg poll, about 94% of respondents believe that the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment.

- The FTX collapse will continue to affect cryptocurrency market sentiment, leading to a drop in bitcoin's price to $5,000 in 2023. This is the conclusion reached by Standard Chartered. Eric Robertsen, chief strategist at this multinational bank, allowed interest to shift from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart. The conclusion about the fall of bitcoin follows from his forecast for the growth of the precious metal by 30%, to $2,250 per troy ounce. Robertsen stressed that the proposed version of the development of events is not a forecast, but it only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.
The described scenario is possible due to the suspension by the world's leading central banks of raising interest rates in 2023 after they have risen in recent months. An additional factor will be the expected continuation of a series of bankruptcies among major participants in the crypto industry with a loss of confidence in digital assets. “Gold will benefit from problems in the crypto industry in the future,” Nicholas Frappell, Global General Manager at ABC Refinery, agreed with Eric Robertsen.

- Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz maintained his forecast for the price of the first cryptocurrency to rise to $500,000 in a comment to Bloomberg Television. However, due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation, it will now take bitcoin more than five years to achieve this goal. “The reason bitcoin dropped from $69,000 to $20,000 is [Fed Chairman] Jerome Powell’s decision to start fighting inflation with a series of rate hikes from 0% to 4%,” he explained. “For this reason, all assets that are considered inflation hedges have fallen in value.”
The founder of Galaxy Digital said in early October that bitcoin would resume growth after the Fed backed away from aggressively raising rates to fight inflation.

- According to a report by CertiK, a blockchain security company, fraudulent bots are rapidly gaining popularity on YouTube: the number of dubious videos increased sixfold in 2022. CertiK describes a wave of fraud through bots that promise instant profits and up to 10 times a day in its report dated December 1. The scam itself usually involves victims being asked to download virus software that is designed to steal their assets the moment they attempt to initiate a pre-transaction.
North Korean hackers of the Lazarus group, which spread the AppleJeus virus under the guise of a bot for cryptocurrency trading BloxHolder are among the attackers, according to IT analysts from Volexity. The extent of the cryptocurrency they stole is still unclear. However, it is already known that the AppleJeus virus is actively updated and encrypted using a special algorithm, which complicates its tracking by antivirus programs.

- Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November as a result of the collapse of the second-largest crypto exchange in terms of capitalization, FTX. According to the figurative expression of analysts, this was not a “crypto winter”, but a “crypto massacre”. The FTX crisis was like a domino that led to the collapse of many other companies.
To complicate matters, between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). According to many experts, regulators will no longer be able to ignore the complaints of those who have lost their savings in such a situation and will have to move to proactive action.

- Peter Schiff, a well-known financier and investor, is widely known as a supporter of gold and an opponent of cryptocurrencies. He expressed confidence in his latest interview that the global inflation rate will rise significantly in 2023, and what is happening now is just the beginning. In his opinion, the cryptocurrency market should fall even more, unable to withstand such strong pressure.
Schiff called the rising inflation rate a certain tax on the population. He noted that every US dollar that the government spends must be paid by citizens in one way or another. The authorities are using a dishonest path. They simply print new money and then put it into circulation. When this happens, the price of everything people buy is constantly increasing. So instead of taking money through taxes, they're stealing purchasing power.

- Texas Senator Ted Cruz said that cryptocurrency mining is essential to the US energy system. First of all, miners can use energy which is excess in the extraction of oil and gas. When it comes to extreme weather conditions in the state, whether it's severe frost or drought, miners can also benefit the Texas power grid. The senator explained that the energy generated by mining can be used to heat households and businesses.
Cruz stressed that Texas creates favorable opportunities for the development of the cryptocurrency industry thanks to an abundance of cheap electricity. In addition, the state government supports free enterprise, and this attracts companies working with blockchain and digital assets. According to the politician, he likes bitcoin, and this is the only crypto asset in which he invests and buys it on a weekly basis.

- Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warned that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: “Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors.”
Bloomberg analyst noted that there is good news as well. Thus, ethereum has grown 12 times compared to 2019 and is still growing. McGlone claims that ETH has strong support close to the current price level. According to his forecast, this coin will outperform all cryptocurrencies, thanks to growing demand and shrinking supply.

- According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the market situation has stabilized slightly, and BTC bulls need now to break through an important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range. In this case, the price will continue moving towards $19,000 quite quickly. He noted that one of the first goals was to reach the $18,285 horizon. As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200.

- JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon has once again criticized cryptocurrency and digital assets. He stressed that some people can be fooled into buying anything. The head of the bank has previously called cryptocurrencies “decentralized Ponzi schemes” and urged to stay away from bitcoin. However, he wrote in his annual letter to shareholders that “decentralized finance and blockchain are real new technologies” and went on to promote the bank’s efforts to implement them. In addition, JPMorgan registered a trademark for its own crypto wallet at the end of November. the bank will provide services related to digital assets under the new brand, including the transfer and exchange of cryptocurrencies, as well as the processing of cross-border payments.

- According to PricePredictions machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), the price of bitcoin may rise in the near future. According to this forecast, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022. It should be noted that this forecast is lower than the expectations of members of the CoinMarketCap crypto community, who believe that BTC will be trading at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 11, 2022, 05:20:27 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 12 - 16, 2022


EUR/USD: Ahead of the Fed and ECB Meetings

(https://i.imgur.com/JIelyFS.jpg)

Two key events await us next week. The first is the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which will be held on Wednesday, December 14. Recall that the key interest rate on the dollar is 4.00% at the moment, and that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed on November 30 that the pace of rate growth may slow down in December. These words of his convinced market participants that the rate would be increased in December not by 75 basis points (bp), but by only 50 bp. The actual developments on December 14 will set the mood of the regulator for 2023. Naturally, an important role here will be played not only by the decision on the interest rate itself, but also by the economic forecasts of the FOMC and the press conference of the management of this organization following the meeting.

It is highly likely that the decision of the Committee members will be influenced by data on inflation in the US: the November values of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced on the eve of the meeting, on Tuesday, December 13.

The second event is the ECB meeting on Thursday, December 15. The interest rate on the euro is 2.00% at the moment, and according to forecasts, the European regulator will also raise it by 50 bp, which will keep the advantage in favor of the US currency: 4.50% against 2.50%. As in the case of the Fed, the comments and forecasts of the ECB leaders, which will be made after this meeting, will also be important for market participants.

As for the past week, the DXY Dollar Index did not manage to win back at least some of the losses it has suffered since the end of September. This time it was hampered by statistics from China. On the one hand, China's manufacturing sector continues to deflate: the Producer Price Index (PPI) has been falling by 1.3% for the second month in a row. On the other hand, inflation is slowing down: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in November was 1.6% against 2.1% a month ago. In this situation, the Chinese government has taken a course of easing monetary policy (QE) to support the country's economy. A survey conducted by Bloomberg showed that the market expects the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates on the yuan as early as Q1 2023. Against this background, stock indices, primarily Asian ones, went up, and the dollar went down. Optimism over the easing of strict COVID-19 restrictions in China also supported the positive tone in equity markets.

Additional pressure on the US currency was exerted by statistics on the US labor market. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits became known on Thursday, December 08. This figure showed a slight increase from 226K to 230K, which was fully in line with the forecast. But repeated applications have reached a maximum over the past ten months: 1671K, which is also a signal for the Fed, pointing to problems in the economy.

On the contrary, European macro statistics looked good. Thus, the GDP of the Eurozone in Q3 turned out to be higher than the forecast, 0.3% vs. 0.2% (q/q) and 2.3% vs. 2.1% (y/y).

As a result, EUR/USD abandoned a deep correction and, having reached a local low of 1.0442 on December 07, reversed and rose to the level of 1.0587 on December 09. The Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan made modest adjustments to the prices at the very end of the working week, after which the pair finished at 1.0531.

50% of analysts count on its further growth, 25% expect the pair to turn south. The remaining 25% of experts point to the east. It should be noted here that when moving to a medium-term forecast, the number of bearish supporters who expect the pair to drop below the parity level of 1.0000 increases sharply, up to 75%.

The picture is different from the oscillators on D1. All 100% of the oscillators are colored green, while 10% is in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators, the 100% advantage is on the green side.

The nearest support for EUR/USD is located at the 1.0500 horizon, then there are levels and zones 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, followed by the parity zone 0.9950-1.0010. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0545-1.0560, 1.0595-1.0620, 1.0745-1.0775, 1.0865, 1.0935.

We will see other important macro statistics next week in addition to the above. Thus, data on consumer inflation (CPI) and economic sentiment (ZEW) in Germany will be released on Tuesday, December 13. And business activity indicators in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone (PMI), as well as the November value of the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Friday, December 16.

GBP/USD: Ahead of the Bank of England Meeting

Not only the ECB, but also the Bank of England (BoE) will decide on the interest rate on Thursday, December 15. It should be noted that the regulator of the United Kingdom was one of the first among the G10 Central Banks, following the Fed, to curtail the policy of quantitative easing (QE). It raised the pound interest rate by 75 bps in November. However, it is expected that like the ECB and the Fed, it will raise it by only 50 bp in December, after which it will reach 3.50%. According to a survey conducted by Reuters, 96% of economists have voted for this step. And only 4% of them insist on 75 bp.

Most respondents believe that the recession will be long and shallow. According to forecasts, the economy contracted by 0.2% in Q3 2022 (exact data will be known on December 12) and will decrease by another 0.4% in Q4. The fall in the first three quarters of 2023 may be 0.4%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

As for inflation, the survey conducted by the BoE showed that the fears of the UK population about it have slightly decreased. If we talk about economists' forecasts, it is expected that in it will reach a peak of 10.9% in Q4, and then it will decline. The current value is more than five times higher than the target level of 2.0%. And the Bank of England will be forced to continue to raise the rate to fight inflation, despite the threat of a deepening recession. It is predicted that BoE will raise it in Q1 and Q2 2023, another 50 bp and 25 bp, respectively, to 4.25%.

GBP/USD, as well as EUR/USD, has been developing an upward trend since the end of September taking advantage of the weakness of the dollar. In addition, it is being pushed up by the end of the fiscal micro-crisis and the Bank of England's actions to tighten monetary policy and support the British government bond market. GBP/USD reached its maximum value on December 05 at the height of 1.2344, however, it did not go further north and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2260 in anticipation of the decisions of the coming week.

Strategists at the German Commerzbank consider the current situation only a temporary respite and expect increased pressure on the British currency. “At present,” they write, “the relief that the fiscal crisis has been brought under control prevails, and there are no signs of a further worsening of the energy crisis. In our opinion, this is only a temporary respite for the pound. The deteriorating economic outlook, relatively prudent monetary policy […] and continued high inflation continue to put major pressure on the pound.”

The median forecast for the near term copies the forecast for EUR/USD in full: 50% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the remaining 25% prefer to remain neutral. At the same time, there is a slight difference when moving to the medium-term forecast: the number of bear supporters here is 10% higher, 85%.

The readings of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 also copy the readings of their counterparts for EUR/USD: all 100% are on the green side, and 10% of the oscillators give signals that the pair is overbought.

Levels and support zones for the pair are 1.2210-1.2235, 1.2150, 1.2085-1.2105, 1.2030, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720, 1.1475-1.1500, 1.1350, 1.1230, 1.1150, 1.1100. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2290-1.2310, 1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2750.

As already mentioned, Monday, December 12, when the country's GDP data will be published, attracts attention this week, as for the events concerning the economy of the United Kingdom. Data on unemployment and wages will arrive the following day, that on consumer prices (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, December 14, and on retail sales and business activity in the UK - on Friday, December 16. And of course, a special emphasis is on December 15, when the Bank of England will issue its verdict on the interest rate.

USD/JPY: What Can Help the Yen

USD/JPY rose from the Dec 02 low of 133.61 to 137.85 last week, slightly above the strong 137.50 support/resistance zone. The last chord of the week sounded at 136.60.

The future of the pair will continue to depend on the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan. If the Fed remains at least moderately hawkish and the BoJ remains ultra-dovey, the dollar will continue to dominate the yen. The threat of new foreign exchange intervention by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the same as it was on November 10, seems unlikely at current levels. Raising the key rate could help, but it is very likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave it unchanged at its meeting on December 20: at the negative level of -0.1%. A radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Although this is not a fact.

Another hope is for renewed concerns about China's economic prospects. “Weak growth rates and a clear decline in bond yields,” economists from the ING banking group believe, “should lead to the fact that safe currencies, such as the yen, will begin to show superiority,” and this will support the Japanese currency.

Analysts' forecast for the near future is bearish: 50% of them vote for the pair to fall, the remaining 50% have taken a neutral position. However, in the medium term, most experts (60%) are shifting their gaze from south to north, expecting a serious strengthening of the dollar and the return of the pair to the 145.00-150.00 zone.  For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 90% look south, 10% look north. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 85% versus 15% in favor of the red ones.

The nearest support level is located at 136.00 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.10-134.35, 133.60, 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.00, 139.50-139.75, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75, 145.30, 146.85-147.00, 148.45, 149.45, 150.00 and 151.55. The purpose of the bulls is to rise and gain a foothold above the height of 152.00.

The calendar could mark Wednesday December 14, when the values of the Sentiment Indices of Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturing Tankan Companies for Q4 2022 will be announced. The publication of other macro indicators of the Japanese economy is not expected next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Christmas Rally After Crypto Massacre

We titled the last review “Cryptogeddon Instead of Crypto Winter” (by analogy with Armageddon, the place of the last and decisive battle between the forces of good and the forces of evil). There is another “bloody” term now: “crypto massacre”, which characterizes what happened as a result of the collapse of the second most capitalized crypto exchange, FTX. Investors lost $10.16 billion in just one week in November. This crisis was like a domino, which led to the collapse of many other companies. About 94% of respondents believe the FTX bankruptcy will be followed by further turmoil as years of easy lending give way to a tougher business and market environment, according to a Bloomberg survey. To complicate matters , between 73% and 81% of investors lost money due to investing in cryptocurrencies between 2015 and 2022. This is evidenced by data from a study conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

The price of bitcoin is consolidating around $17,000 at the moment, and the readings of the SMA100 and SMA200 indicators on the four-hour chart have converged almost at one point. BTC/USD is kept from falling by the dollar that has sagged in recent weeks. Markets froze in anticipation of December 14, when the Fed will make a decision on the interest rate. And it, in turn, depends on the data on inflation in the US, which will arrive the day before. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) Economic Forecasts will also play a significant role in the dollar dynamics.

Optimists, including crypto communities such as Credible Crypto, Moustache and Dave the Wave, expect this data to positively influence the market's risk appetite, and the Christmas rally will push bitcoin to $20,000. According to the expectations of members of the crypto community CoinMarketCap, BTC will trade at an average price of $19,788 by the end of the year.

PricePredictions' machine learning algorithms, which include a number of technical indicators (MA, RSI, MACD, BB, etc.), indicate a price of $1,000 lower. According to their metrics, the main cryptocurrency will reach $18,797 on December 31, 2022.

However, not everything is so rosy and unambiguous. For example, Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone believes that cryptocurrencies are now going through the last stage before reaching the bottom. However, he warns that it will be very difficult to survive this phase: “Normally, markets do not just form a V-bottom. They make it as hard as possible with a lot of volatility, taking money from all investors.”

According to Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known trader and analyst, the pair will face many difficulties on the way to $19,000. The bulls will need to break through the important resistance level in the $17,400-17,600 range and then try to reach the $18,285 horizon.

As for the price of ethereum, Van de Poppe believes that the key support level for this cryptocurrency is the price of $1,200. Mike McGlone is of the same opinion. According to his calculations, ETH has strong support close to the current price level.

There is very little time left until the end of the year, and then we will find out who was more accurate in their forecasts. In the meantime, at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, December 09), ETH/USDis trading around $1,260, and BTC/USD - $17,100. The total capitalization of the crypto market has not changed much over the week and is $0.852 trillion ($0.859 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen only 1 point in seven days, from 27 to 26 and still remains in the Fear zone.

And to conclude the review, a few words about longer-term forecasts. Such popular Twitter analysts as Bluntz and Korinek_Trades do not rule out BTC/USD falling to $15,000 or even $12,000 in Q1 2023.

The picture drawn by Standard Chartered economists is even bleaker. They expect that the collapse of FTX will continue to affect the mood of the crypto market, the series of bankruptcies of large industry participants will continue, which will lead to a further loss of confidence in digital assets. As a result, bitcoin's price could fall to $5,000 during 2023. Standard Chartered Chief Strategist Eric Robertsen allowed investor interest to switch from the digital version of gold to its physical counterpart and the price of the precious metal to rise to $2,250 per troy ounce. At the same time, Robertsen emphasized that the proposed scenario is not a forecast, but only suggests a possible deviation from the current market consensus.

Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz looked farthest into the future and saw a light at the end of the tunnel. In a comment to Bloomberg Television, he maintained his forecast that the price of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000. However, it will now take more than five years for bitcoin, in his opinion, to achieve this goal due to significant changes in the macroeconomic situation and the aggressive actions of the Fed.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 14, 2022, 02:48:35 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ZJVF2Ce.jpg)

- Following the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, the US Federal Reserve will decide on the interest rate on December 14. Although its current level is still far from the expected peak of 5-5.25%, the US Central Bank may raise the rate not by 0.75%, but by 0.5% this time. Such a decision will signal the easing of monetary policy and that additional volumes of dollar liquidity may appear on the market. According to experts, this will have a positive impact on the prices of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. If bitcoin settles above the $18,000 area in the near future, some experts estimate that it is likely to reach an extreme of $20,000 by the end of December.
In such a situation, the bitcoin price will again be on a growth parabola, according to an analyst known as Plan B. According to their latest forecast, BTC could reach $100,000 in 2023. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco News, also believes BTC is close to developing a sustained bullish rally in the current environment as strong buyers have stepped in.

- Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF), the 30-year-old founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. prosecutors filed eight felony charges against him. According to law enforcement officers, SBF colluded with partners to deceive, misappropriate funds from clients of the trading platform and use them to pay the expenses and debts of their companies. As a result of the leak of deposits, an $8 billion hole was created on the exchange's accounts. The charges also include money laundering and violations of US political campaign finance laws. Earlier, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) also accused SBF in defrauding FTX investors.  According to the representative of the prosecutor's office, Bankman-Fried faces up to 115 years in prison in the aggregate of all criminal cases.

- ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood said that Sam Bankman-Fried has always disliked bitcoin because it is transparent and decentralized, and he could not control it, including during the crisis caused by opaque centralized players.
Despite the difficult situation caused by the bankruptcy of FTX, the head of ARK Invest remains optimistic. In her opinion, DeFi will be further developed, as investors have learned how important fully transparent decentralized networks are thanks to the crisis. “When centralized crypto companies went bankrupt, investors who invested in transparent distributed networks saw what was happening. They were able to withdraw their assets on time. Even those who used high margin leverage were able to survive,” Catherine Wood said.
Recall that, in addition to the FTX bankruptcy in November, the crypto industry has experienced a number of major shocks this year. First of all, this is the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May. Compute North, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, and Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy. According to some estimates, approximately several million customers lost billions of dollars as a result of all these events.

- Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of the BitMEX crypto exchange, said that the first cryptocurrency reached the lowest level of the current cycle, as almost all “irresponsible organizations” ran out of coins to sell. Hayes explained that when facing financial difficulties, centralized credit companies often borrow first and then sell off their BTC holdings, followed by a collapse. “When you look at the balance of any of these ‘heroes’, you won’t see bitcoin there. They sold it before they went bankrupt."
This is how Hayes explains the reasons for the fall of the first cryptocurrency even before the bankruptcy of centralized credit companies. At the same time, the expert believes that the period of large-scale liquidations is over. In his opinion, the digital asset market expects a partial recovery in 2023 amid the next launch of the “printing press” by the US Federal Reserve.

- According to Bloomberg's leading strategist Mike McGlone, bitcoin is likely to outshine gold. The popular analyst added that the flagship cryptocurrency is currently only four times more volatile than the precious metal, which is negligible compared to what it was in 2018.
McGlone called next year the bitcoin market and a time of shine after a year and a half of direct downtrends. This will happen due to the fact that the Central Banks, primarily the Fed, will move from an aggressive tightening of monetary policy to its easing. If this does not happen, Bloomberg strategist says, the world could plunge even deeper into a recession with negative consequences for all risky assets.
Max Keiser, a former trader and now TV host and filmmaker, also believes that BTC will certainly catch up in 2023 and may stage an epic rally before the 2024 halving. In his opinion, the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency will continue over the next decades.

- The FTX crash gave additional arguments to those US officials who are skeptical about cryptocurrencies. For example, Senator Jon Tester, a member of the Senate Banking Committee, has recently said that digital assets failed the “tightness” test. “I haven't found anyone who could explain to me what their value is,” the senator says. “The problem is that if we regulate them, people will start to think that crypto assets are really legal.”
The decision of the US authorities to regulate cryptocurrencies will determine the further behavior of institutional players and large owners of bitcoins, which are often the same persons. So far, 80% of the losses that occur in the market of the main cryptocurrency are caused by the sale of BTC by “whales”, most wallets with a balance of more than 10 thousand BTC continue to sell more than buy digital gold since mid-July.

- The proportion of US adults who have ever invested in cryptocurrencies increased from 3% in 2020 up to 13% in June 2022. This is evidenced by a study conducted by JPMorgan analysts. The specialists of the financial conglomerate analyzed a sample of 5 million accounts and found that the majority of retail users invested in digital assets for the first time close to the price peak. The average purchase price for their first cryptocurrency is $42,400-$45,500. At the same time, most low-income investors bought at a higher price.
Retail investors' inflows of money into crypto accounts have far exceeded outflows from them over the past few years. The cash flow has become more balanced against the background of the market decline in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the researchers found that the average investment is relatively small: about $620, which is approximately equal to a weekly salary. Only 15% of investors have invested more than their monthly earnings in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts also noted that Asians with high incomes are most likely to invest in cryptocurrencies.

- Twitter's new CEO Elon Musk managed to silence cryptocurrency spam bots. The businessman had promised to solve the problem with a huge number of advertising messages before buying the social network and has already started working in this direction. The volume of mailings has decreased significantly, but Elon is not going to stop there.
“My guess is that there are a small number of people running a huge army of bots and trolls. Today [December 11] we will block IP addresses of known violators. Although this should have been done much earlier,” Musk said. Twitter will now immediately blacklist the IP addresses of spammers, so they won't be able to use the social network for a long time using the VPN service or the Tor browser. In addition, Elon Musk promised to punish all scammers, but has not yet said exactly how.
Dogecoin creator Billy Markus, known under the pseudonym Shibetoshi Nakamoto, has confirmed the effectiveness of anti-spam measures. After Musk announced the blocking of IP addresses, only one bot responded to Marcus' post instead of the usual 50. Thus, the social network has neutralized almost all spammers.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 19, 2022, 08:55:54 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 19 - 23, 2022


EUR/USD: The Fed Doesn't Want to be Dovish. The ECB Either.

The past week can be divided into two parts: before and after the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve. The US inflation data produced a bombshell effect on the eve of this event, on Tuesday, December 13. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), with the forecast at 7.3%, fell in November from 7.7% to 7.1% (y/y), reaching its lowest level in almost a year, while core inflation fell from 6.3% to 6.0%. As a result, the market decided that since things were going so well, it was time for the Fed to turn from hawk to dove. Or at least ease their monetary policy significantly. Based on these expectations, the 10-year Treasury bond yield fell from 3.60% to 3.43%, and the DXY Dollar Index peaked and fell to its lowest levels over the past six months, from 105.07 to 103.60 points. Accordingly, stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) flew up, and EUR/USD jumped to 1.0672.

The feast of risk appetites and the glee of opponents of the dollar did not last long. The FOMC raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 4.5% at its meeting. That is, exactly as market participants expected. Surprises were expected at the subsequent press conference, which showed that the US Central Bank is still hawkish. Fed chief Jerome Powell noted that the regulator will keep rates at their peak until they are sure that the decline in inflation has become a sustainable trend.  The base rate could be raised to 5.1% in 2023 and remain so high until 2024. (Recall that 4.6% was mentioned as the peak rate in the September statement). According to Jerome Powell, the Fed understands that this will trigger a recession, but is willing to pay that price to control inflation. The situation turned around 180 degrees after such statements: DXY went up, stock indices flew down, and EUR/USD fell by more than 140 points.

The last meeting of the European Central Bank this year was also held last week, on Thursday, December 15. The ECB, as well as the Fed, raised the interest rate by 50 bp: up to 2.5%, which fully met the forecasts. ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as her overseas counterpart, showed a hawkish attitude at the press conference and made it clear that quantitative tightening (QT) in the Eurozone will not end there: the euro interest rate will face several more increases in 2023. The ECB also plans to start reducing its balance sheet from March. At the moment, the gap between the dollar and euro rates is 200 bp (4.5% and 2.5%, respectively). The swap market expects that the European regulator may raise its rate by another 100 bp in the coming year, which will provide some support for EUR/USD. Read our upcoming reviews to find out what forecasts leading financial institutions give regarding its quotes.

The data on business activity in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone (PMI), as well as the November value of the European Consumer Price Index (CPI) were published at the very end of the last week, on Friday, December 16. Data on consumer inflation did not have a significant impact on market sentiment: on the one hand, CPI in annual terms fell from 10.6% to 10.1%, and on the other hand, it turned out to be higher than the forecast of 10.0%. After the release of these macro statistics, the pair placed the last chord at 1.0590.

40% of analysts expect the euro to strengthen in the coming days and EUR/USD to grow, 50% expect Santa Claus to help the US currency. The remaining 10% of experts do not expect either the first or the second from the pair. The picture is different among the oscillators on D1. As for the oscillators, 75% are colored green, 10% are set to neutral gray and 15% stand out against this background with a bright red color. Trend indicators also have an advantage on the green side, these are 80%, and 20% are on the red side. The nearest support for EUR/USD is at the 1.0560 horizon, followed by levels and zones at 1.0500, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0280-1.0315, 1.0220-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0070, followed by the parity zone 0.9950-1.0010. Bulls will meet resistance at levels 1.0620, 1.0675-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0775, 1.0865, 1.0935.

Next week's calendar includes Thursday December 22 for the release of 3Q US GDP data, and Friday December 23 for the release of orders for capital goods and durables, as well as the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index. .

Attention! Christmas and New Year holidays fall on weekends this year; however, we strongly advise you read the trading schedule for this period, it is published on the NordFX website in the Company News section.

GBP/USD: The Market No Longer Trusts the Bank of England

Even more disappointment than EUR/USD awaited the bulls on the British pound. Having reached a six-month high of 1.2450 on December 14, GBP/USD then fell to 1.2119 and ended the weekly session at 1.2160.

There were quite a lot of statistics on the economy of the United Kingdom Last week, and they looked diverse: sometimes green, sometimes red. The country's GDP grew by 0.5% and was higher than the forecast of 0.4%. The manufacturing sector also rose to 0.7% after the zero dynamics in September. Such an important indicator of inflation as CPI was 10.7% in November (it was at the highest level since November 1981 - 11.1% a month ago). But retail sales fell to 0.4% in November against 0.9% in October. The unemployment rate rose from 3.6% to 3.7%. The business activity index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of the UK fell to 44.7 in December against 46.5 in November. And in the services sector, on the contrary, it rose to 50.0 compared to the November value of 48.8 and the forecast of 48.5.

It seems that such multi-vector statistics have greatly confused market participants, and they focused not on the pound, but on the US dollar. Although the Bank of England (BoE) also issued its verdict on the interest rate last week. Like the Fed and the ECB, the regulator raised it by 50 bp up to 3.5% per annum (14-year maximum). However, BoE's statements turned out to be more dovish than those of their colleagues. According to the regulator, inflation may have already reached its peak. And two out of nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee considered that interest rates are already high enough and it is time to ease price pressures.

Prior to this meeting, quotes expected a maximum rate increase of up to 4.6%. After the meeting, the swap market lowered its forecast to 4.5% by August (that is, a total increase of another 100 bp). As for the survey of market participants conducted recently by the Bank of England, the median expectations are even lower here: only 4.25% with a peak in March 2023.

These forecasts put strong pressure on the British currency. Therefore, according to Commerzbank economists, the pound does not have much potential for recovery. “After the Bank of England hesitated for several months, the market now believes that it is the least trustworthy thing to suddenly become a mega hawk,” they write. “So, the pound has no chance against either the euro or the dollar.”

As for the short term, the median forecast for GBP/USD looks quite neutral here: 45% of experts side with the bulls, the same number side with the bears, and the remaining 10% prefer to decline to comment.

The readings of the indicators on D1 look mixed as well. Among the oscillators, 30% are colored green, 25% are red and 45% are neutral gray. Trend indicators have a ratio of 65% to 35% in favor of the green ones. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2085-1.2115, 1.2030, 1.1940, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1700-1.1720. When the pair moves north, the pair will face resistance at the levels of 1.2200-1.2225, 1.2270, 1.2330-1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700 and 1.2750.

Among the events related to the United Kingdom economy this week, we can highlight Thursday, December 22, when we will find out what happened to the country's GDP in Q3 2022. We also pay attention to the early closing of trading in the UK on Friday, December 23, which, of course, is associated with the upcoming Christmas.

USD/JPY: What to Expect from the Bank of Japan

Like previous pairs, USD/JPY reacted to both US inflation data and statements by the Fed Chairman. But, unlike EUR/USD and GBP/USD, this pair has not gone beyond the side corridor for the last two weeks. Its boundaries can be designated as 134.25-137.85, and timid attempts to break through in one direction or another can be ignored. This balance is most likely due to the fact that both the dollar and the yen are safe-haven currencies. Of course, the global advantage, thanks to the difference in interest rates, is on the side of the dollar. But, having carried out a number of foreign exchange interventions, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has managed in recent months not only to stop the advance of the American currency, but also to significantly push it back.

As we have already mentioned, the future of the pair will continue to depend on the difference in interest rates between the US and Japan. If the Fed remains at least moderately hawkish and the BOJ remains ultra-dovish, the dollar will continue to dominate the yen. The threat of new foreign exchange intervention by the Ministry of Finance of Japan, the same as it was on November 10, seems unlikely at current levels. Raising the key rate could help, but it is very likely that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave it unchanged at its meeting on December 20: at the negative level of -0.1%. A radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8 next year. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end his term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Although this is not a fact.

Another hope is for renewed concerns about China's economic prospects. By the way, the People's Bank of China will also make its decision on the interest rate on the yuan on Tuesday, December 20.

USD/JPY finished at 136.70 on Friday, December 16. Analysts' forecast for the near future is exactly the same as the forecast for GBP/USD: 45%/45%/10%. For oscillators on D1, the picture looks like this: 25% look south, 40% look north, and 35% look east. Among the trend indicators, the ratio is 60% versus 40% in favor of the red ones. The nearest support level is located at 136.00 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.40, 133.60, 131.25-131.70, 129.60-130.00, 128.10-128.25, 126.35 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 137.50-137.70, 138.00-138.30, 139.00, 139.50-139.75, 140.60, 142.25, 143.75. The goal of the bulls to renew the October 21, 2022 high, and to gain a foothold above the height of 152.00 seems realistic only in a very distant future.

In addition to the mentioned interest rate decision by the Bank of Japan, the calendar also includes Friday, December 23, when the Report from the BoJ Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published. Market participants will try to catch at least small hints of changes in this policy. However, the chances of this happening are close to zero.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Santa Claus Is the Only Hope

(https://i.imgur.com/UAUolQs.jpg)

The results of the Fed meeting seem to have greatly tempered investors' risk appetites. If stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq) were growing throughout the first half of the week, and after the publication of inflation data in the US, they just soared up, dragging crypto asset prices, they all went into the red after the Fed meeting, on Wednesday evening, November 14. Amid fears of a global recession, the decline continued on Thursday and Friday. The local maximum for BTC/USD was fixed at $18.381, but it met the end of the working week much lower, in the $16.830 zone.

The general situation in the crypto industry does not help the growth of prices either. Recall that, in addition to the bankruptcy of FTX in November, it has experienced a number of major shocks this year. First of all, this is the collapse of the Terra ecosystem in May. Compute North, Voyager Digital, Celsius Network, Three Arrows Capital, and Blockfi also filed for bankruptcy. According to some estimates, approximately several million customers lost billions of dollars as a result of all these events.

The events of recent days are not encouraging either. Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of crypto exchange FTX, has been arrested in the Bahamas after U.S. Attorney's Office filed eight felony charges against him. According to the representative of the prosecutor's office, Bankman-Fried faces up to 115 years in prison in the aggregate of all criminal cases. Market participants were also alarmed by the strange, to put it mildly, financial report by FTX's main competitor, the Binance exchange. It contained only three indicators, which caused be Earnings-price ratioerment and criticism from representatives of the accounting community.

There is very little time left until the end of this year, and it is only Santa Claus Rally, a phenomenon when stock indices suddenly begin to go up at the very end of December, that can help the growth of bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. This Rally usually starts on the last Monday of the month and lasts for seven trading days. However, sometimes Santa Claus decides to help not risky assets at all, but the dollar. And then, instead of the North Pole, they head south. (You can read more about Santa Claus Rally on NordFX's Useful Articles section).

Some experts hope that bitcoin will still be able to gain a foothold above the $18,000 area in the coming days. Then, in their opinion, it will most likely reach an extreme of $20,000 by the end of the year.

In such a situation, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will again be on a growth parabola, according to a well-known analyst under the nickname Plan B. According to their latest forecast, BTC could reach $100,000 in 2023. Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst at Kitco News, also believes BTC is close to developing a sustained bullish rally in the current environment as strong buyers have stepped in.

Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, expressed a similar point of view, although his arguments differ from those of Jim Wyckoff. Hayes believes that the first cryptocurrency has reached the low of the current cycle, as almost all “irresponsible organizations” have run out of coins to sell. He explained that when facing financial difficulties, centralized credit companies often borrow first and then sell off their BTC holdings, followed by a collapse. “When you look at the balance of any of these ‘heroes’, you won’t see bitcoin there. They sold it before they went bankrupt." That is why, according to Hayes, the fall in the quotes of the first cryptocurrency precedes such bankruptcies. At the same time, the expert believes that the period of large-scale liquidations is over.

ARK Invest CEO Catherine Wood also spoke negatively about centralized companies and positively about DeFi. In her opinion, DeFi will be further developed, as investors have learned how important fully transparent decentralized networks are thanks to the crisis. “When centralized crypto companies went bankrupt, investors who invested in transparent distributed networks saw what was happening. They were able to withdraw their assets on time. Even those who used a large margin leverage were able to survive,” said Catherine Wood. And she added that Sam Bankman-Fried has always disliked bitcoin because it is transparent and decentralized, and he could not control it, including during the crisis provoked by opaque centralized players.

According to former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, the digital asset market expects a partial recovery in 2023 amid another launch of the US Federal Reserve's printing press. Mike McGlone, senior strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, also expects new flows of cash liquidity from the Central Bank, he called next year the bitcoin market and a time of shine after a year and a half of direct downward trends. However, at the same time, the analyst added that if the easing of monetary policy does not happen, the world may plunge even deeper into a recession with negative consequences for all risky assets.

Max Keiser, a former trader and now TV host and filmmaker, also believes that BTC will certainly catch up in 2023 and may stage an epic rally before the 2024 halving. In his opinion, the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency will continue over the next decade. And, as Cathie Wood stated, it will reach a price of $1 million per coin by 2030.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, December 16), ETH/USD is trading around $1,200, while BTC/USD is trading at $16,830. The total capitalization of the crypto market for the week decreased by almost 4.0% and amounted to $0.818 trillion ($0.852 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown by only 3 points in seven days, from 26 to 29, and still remains in the Fear zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 21, 2022, 02:21:32 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The SEC and CFTC may need to consider banning cryptocurrencies. Sherrod Brown, Chairman of the US Senate Banking Committee, said this on NBC. “We [legislators] want them [regulators] to do what they need […] perhaps by banning them [cryptocurrencies]. Although this scenario is extremely difficult, since they [digital assets] will go offshore, and few people can predict what this measure will lead to,” the senator explained.
Sherrod Brown backed Jon Tester, who also sits on the banking committee. The legislator stated on December 12 that cryptocurrencies have not passed the “gut check”, and therefore there is no reason for them to exist.
Brown admitted that he has been “educating” senators and the public on the “dangers of cryptocurrencies” over the past 18 months, calling for immediate and aggressive action. “I've already reached out to the Treasury and Secretary [Janet Yellen] and asked for a nationwide assessment through all the various regulatory agencies [...] The SEC has been particularly aggressive,” he explained. Brown cited the collapse of FTX as justification for the position, adding that this is only part of a huge problem.

- According to the chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Gary Gensler, digital assets are too volatile and speculative, which puts investors at great risk. “It is important that cryptocurrency issuers, as well as other intermediaries, operate in accordance with clear rules,” he said. “Although the industry usually does not pose a threat to the traditional financial sector, we must be vigilant to prevent such a situation from developing.”
Gensler noted that the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) was able to effectively identify gaps in the regulation of the crypto industry. The FSOC has recommended passing bills that would empower federal financial regulators to control the spot market for crypto assets, similar to stock markets.

- Michael Burry, the hero of The Big Short, who predicted the 2007-8 mortgage crisis, called audits of the balances of cryptocurrency exchanges FTX, Binance and others pointless. This is how the investor commented on the news about the termination of services for crypto companies by the French auditor Mazars.
Mazars's audit of Binance's bitcoin balances was actively criticized by experts who said that it was not a full audit and that its results did not convince users of the safety of users' assets. Following the criticism, Binance faced a significant outflow of funds. The exchange also had problems withdrawing the USD Coin (USDC) stablecoin on some networks. Against this background, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao was forced to refute rumors about a lack of liquidity on the platform.

- Edward Snowden, a former NSA and US CIA officer who now lives in Russia, proposed his candidacy for the post in response to Twitter owner Elon Musk's post about the search for the social network's CEO. “I accept payment in bitcoin,” Snowden wrote.
Elon Musk posted that he needed a CEO who could "keep Twitter alive." Earlier, the billionaire conducted a survey in his profile about the need for him to resign from the post of head of the social network. 17.5 million users participated in it, the majority of them (57.5%) voted for Musk's resignation, and he promised to follow the results of the poll.

- Elon Musk had admitted back in August that a recession could trigger a number of bankruptcies, and the period itself could continue until the end of 2023. Although the billionaire admitted that “making macroeconomic forecasts ¬is a lost cause,” he still assumed that the upcoming crisis will be “relatively mild”. In particular, he referred to the "relatively low debt levels for most companies." This allows us to hope that the recession will remain in the range of "mild to moderate, lasting about eighteen months," Musk said at the time.
Mike Novogratz, the head of the venture capital company Galaxy Digital, adheres to similar deadlines. In his opinion, bitcoin will continue to remain in the zone of uncertainty as long as the US Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflationary risks. He also suggested that it is high time for the crypto market to pause due to excessive activity.
Novogratz called the takeover of the American crypto exchange Coinbase “by some big traditional financier” one of the worst recession scenarios. Coinbase has long been cutting operating expenses in anticipation of worsening business in 2023.

- According to a number of analysts, there are currently no significant prerequisites for the growth of the bitcoin rate in the global cryptocurrency market. On the contrary, the anxiety of traders against the background of the bankruptcy of the FTX exchange may lead to a collapse in its value. According to RBC, “investors are now actively withdrawing funds from the Binance exchange, and in record volumes. The US intends to strictly regulate the crypto market and citizens' transactions.  So we should expect that bitcoin will not grow, but will come to its lows soon. It is possible that its value will be at the level of $10,000 in the first half of 2023, or even in Q1.”
The tightening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy may also put pressure on the bitcoin rate. Its plans to raise the interest rate above 5.00% next year may limit the potential for BTC to rise in value. And as analysts at the British investment company AJ Bell predict, the main cryptocurrency rate will be very volatile in 2023.

- Given the deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, the crypto market is likely to face another collapse in quotes in the near future. This conclusion was reached by analysts at the Nansen research portal, considering the correlation between the S&P500 index and cryptocurrencies. Experts expect that the US recession will affect not only stocks, but also digital assets. At the same time, it is possible that this fall will be the last in the current cycle (until 2024). However, Nansen experts did not specify how soon it will happen and how long the market will be at the bottom.

- Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone shares the opposite point of view. According to him, despite the fact that “the global benchmark digital asset was defeated in 2022”, it is ready to once again lean towards faster growth. The expert believes that the global economy may continue to fall in 2023, but BTC is likely to grow and become more actively used as digital security. The correlation of the digital asset with the Nasdaq index can be a supporting factor in this matter.
Mike McGlone had earlier predicted that the "macroeconomic global winter" could last up to three years. At the same time, he expects that the crypto industry will become stronger than ever in the next few years, and the bitcoin exchange rate will reach $100,000, and Ethereum at $6,000 by 2025.

- To circumvent sanctions imposed due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Russian Parliament is studying the possibility of issuing a gold-backed cryptocurrency that is stored in the country's Far East. This is not the first initiative on the topic of gold backing of digital assets. Economists at Vnesheconombank of the Russian Federation proposed issuing a gold-backed stablecoin called the “golden ruble” last June. In their opinion, it will be impossible to block transactions with the crypto-gold ruble, since the exchange rate will be tied to the gold rate on the world market.

- The research company Solidus Labs has published a report on fraudulent schemes in the crypto industry. According to the firm, scammers released over 100,000 new "cryptocurrencies" (117,629 to be exact) from January 1 to December 1, 2022. This figure is 41% higher than the figure recorded in 2021. The BNB Smart Chain blockchain, developed by the Binance exchange, took the first place in terms of the number of coins issued by fraudsters. 12% of the tokens created on this network were issued by scammers. In second place is the Ethereum cryptocurrency blockchain, in which 8% of new coins were associated with scam projects.
The most profitable scam was the so-called honeypot, which is a trap for greedy people. To pull off this scam, attackers develop a smart contract with a vulnerability that supposedly allows you to withdraw cryptocurrency after making a deposit. In practice, those who fall for the bait of the scammers cannot take the coins from the "pot" and lose their assets. The authors of one of these virtual traps, based on Squid Game (SQUID) tokens, earned $3.3 million in just a few days.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 25, 2022, 11:49:52 AM
Dollar and Euro 2020-2022: Forecasts and Realities


Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from the world's leading financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and coming years. We did this two years, and a year ago. Therefore, we can not only look into the future now, but also analyze whether experts were right in the past.

(https://i.imgur.com/l4Q358r.jpg)


2020-2021: EUR/USD in Times of COVID

December 2019 There was no talk of a global pandemic that month, when the first outbreak of COVID-19 was recorded in Wuhan, China. But even then, the Financial Times published a forecast of Citigroup experts that the quantitative easing (QE) policy pursued by the US Federal Reserve and pumping the market with cheap dollar liquidity could cause the dollar to fall.

As the pandemic raged on, this scenario began to prove its case. The dollar began to lose ground starting from the last decade of March 2020. The Fed's printing press was running at full capacity, flooding the US market with new cheap dollars. There were no plans to curtail monetary stimulus and, moreover, to raise the interest rate. Starting from 1.0630 on March 22, 2020, EUR/USD met the new 2021 at 1.2300.   

The pair continued to grow with the onset of 2021. But this trend lasted... less than one week. It reached the level of 1.2350 on January 6, and this was the year's high. Everything changed starting from January 7, and the dollar began to win back losses.

The US currency moved in a sinusoidal manner until the end of May, fluctuating along with the waves of the coronavirus and statements by the Fed leaders. But the mood of the US Central Bank began to clearly change from dovish to hawkish just before summer, the country's economy was recovering, and investors began to grow confident in the imminent rise in the key interest rate from the current "miserable" level of 0.25%. As a result, the dollar went into steady growth, and EUR/USD ended 2021 in the 1.1350 zone, having lost 1,000 points in a year.


2022: EUR/USD During the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict

The prospect of a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy (QT) and a further rate hike inspired investors to be optimistic about the future of the US currency. Experts' forecasts also looked optimistic. The US economy, including the labor market, was recovering at a good pace, and GDP growth was forecast at 5%, which gave the Federal Reserve the opportunity to actively combat inflation. The fact that the interest rate will rise to at least 1.5% by the end of 2023 was almost beyond doubt. Confidence in the further strengthening of the dollar was added by the dovish position of the Central Banks of the G7 countries, which are more tolerant of rising prices.

 Strategists at the Dutch banking Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) predicted that EUR/USD would trade at 1.1000 in Q4 2022. Analysts of one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, HSBC (Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation) were in solidarity with ING. “Our main argument,” their forecast said, “is based on two factors supporting the dollar: 1. a slowdown in global economic growth, and 2. the Federal Reserve’s gradual transition to a possible rate hike." In addition, HSBC considered that the ECB would not raise the interest rate on the euro until the end of 2022.

CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) specialists also sided with the US dollar, setting the same goal for EUR/USD for the last two quarters of 2022: 1.1000. The JP Morgan financial holding assessed the pair's prospects more modestly, pointing to the level of 1.1200.

However, not all financial authorities relied on the growth of the dollar. Thus, Barclays Bank considered the dollar to be highly overvalued. The bank's economists predicted its modest depreciation as risk appetite and commodities surged on the back of the global economic recovery and cooling inflation. The scenario written for EUR/USD in Barclays looked like this: Q1 2022 - growth to 1.1600, Q2 - 1.1800, Q3 and Q4 - movement in the 1.1900 zone.   

 Reuters interviewed the largest banks represented on Wall Street and published their scenarios of the dynamics of the foreign exchange market for the next 12 months. In addition to the aforementioned JP Morgan and Barclays, the respondents were banking conglomerates Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, as well as Europe's largest asset management company Amundi.

Morgan Stanley believed that the Fed's rate hike would proceed fairly smoothly, while other central banks would move from dovish to hawkish politics. This should lead to convergence in the actions of regulators, put pressure on the dollar and raise EUR/USD to 1.1800.

Goldman Sachs strategists called the same target of 1.1800. And Amundi said the Fed "can do little to surprise market expectations," although it agreed that the momentum "would remain broadly positive for the dollar." According to the company's strategists, EUR/USD should have ended 2022 around 1.1400.

It's safe to say now that analysts from ING, HSBC, CIBC gave the closest forecast. And it is possible that this forecast could come true by 100%. Or maybe their opponents from Barclays, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs would be right. But if the whole world was turned upside down by the coronavirus pandemic in 2020, a war entered the life of the planet in 2022. Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent anti-Russian sanctions have caused an economic crisis, energy starvation and increased inflation in many countries, even very far from this region. 

The proximity of the EU countries to the conflict zone, their heavy dependence on Russian natural energy resources, the nuclear threat and the risk of the transfer of hostilities to their territory all dealt a serious blow to the Eurozone economy and forced the ECB to act as carefully as possible so as not to bring it down completely. The USA found itself in much more favorable conditions, which allowed the Fed not only to continue, but also to accelerate the pace of QT and rate hikes. EUR/USD fell below the 1.0000 parity line for the first time in 20 years on July 14, and it hit a low at 0.9535 on September 28.

The main driver for the strengthening of the dollar was the expectation of a sharp rise in the refinancing rate, supported by the statements and actions of the Fed leaders. The rate was at the level of 0.25% between March 15, 2020 (beginning of the pandemic) to March 16, 2022. It was then raised by 25 basis points (bp), then by another 50 bps, followed by four more 75 bps increases. Then the US Central Bank slightly slowed down the pace of tightening and raised the rate by only 50 bps at its last meeting in 2022, after which it reached 4.50%.

The ECB kept the euro rate at 0.00% for a long time. However, it was forced to start tightening his monetary policy following the Fed. The regulator raised the rate to 0.50% at its meeting on July 21, to 1.25% on September 08, to 2.00% on October 27, and, finally, to 2.50% on December 15.

The fact that the ECB did start tightening its monetary policy has benefited the euro. The fact that Europe filled its oil and gas storage facilities to capacity before the winter cold and also found ways to replace Russian energy resources helped the pan-European currency as well. As a result, EUR/USD rose again above the 1.0000 level and reached a high of 1.0735 on December 15.

***

So, the common European currency lost 2,815 points to the American one from January 06, 2021, to September 28, 2022. Then the euro launched a counterattack, and it managed to win back 1,200 points by the end of the year, or more than 40% of losses. We will tell you what leading experts expect from these two currencies in the coming year, 2023, in a week, in our next review.

In the meantime, let us wish you and your loved ones success in your work, financial well-being, good health and the fulfillment of all your desires, even your most daring ones. And let's hope that unlike the past three years, the coming year will be filled with only positive events. Happy New Year!


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 28, 2022, 03:36:41 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/xS3rXjW.jpg)

- Billionaire Mark Cuban had an argument with Club Random podcast host Bill Maher regarding investments in bitcoin and gold. Maher noted that he is an opponent of the first cryptocurrency and believes in the value of the precious metal. In response, Cuban called those who invest in gold dumb. “I want bitcoin to drop lower so I can buy some more,” the billionaire said.
Cuban also criticized Maher's claim that gold is a hedge against inflation and other risks. According to him, buying the precious metal does not mean owning a physical ingot. “This is a digital transaction that proves ownership […]. Do you know what would happen if you had a gold bar in your hands? Someone would beat you to a pulp or kill you to take it,” Cuban added.

- The mining company BIT Mining Limited reported a hacker attack on the BTC.com pool under its control. “As a result of the cyber attack, certain cryptocurrencies were stolen, including assets of BTC.com customers worth about $700,000 and approximately $2.3 million owned by the company,” BIT Mining Limited said. According to Immunefi, the crypto industry's total losses from hacks and scams in Q3 22 amounted to $428.7 million.

- According to South Korea’s National Intelligence Agency, North Korean hackers have stolen $1.2 billion worth of cryptocurrencies and other digital assets over the past five years. More than half of this amount ($626 million) was stolen over the past year.
North Korea's hackers are considered among the best, as Kim Jong-un's regime is investing heavily in cybercrime. CNN has published a major investigation into how the North Korean regime is financing its nuclear program by creating a network of agents and hackers embedded in various crypto exchanges and crypto companies, mainly from the United States.

- Large institutional investors are still “staying away” from digital assets due to high volatility. This was stated by Jared Gross, Managing Director of JPMorgan Asset Management. In his opinion, bitcoin has not become an alternative to gold and a hedge against inflation, as many hoped, and for most large institutions, cryptocurrencies “actually do not exist” as an asset class. “[A lot of big investors] breathed a sigh of relief that they haven't entered this market and probably won't do so anytime soon,” added Jared Gross.

- Bobby Lee, co-founder and former head of the BTCC exchange, allowed the cryptocurrency bull market to return by early 2025, in an interview with CNBC. “It is difficult to determine exactly when this bear market will bottom out. I expect the bull market to return in two years,” he said.
The expert also believes that it is necessary to strengthen regulation, especially for companies providing custody services, to restore confidence in the digital asset industry. “I have always been a supporter of more regulation in the cryptocurrency market. To understand, I'm talking about regulating companies, not the asset itself, because it's inert. It is a commodity like gold and silver. No regulation can change the chemical composition of gold or silver. It’s the same with bitcoin,” Lee explained.

- Bitcoin has been recognized as a means of payment in Brazil. The law that has secured this status for it has been passed by Congress and signed by the president of the country. The Bank of Brazil is expected to be in charge of using the first cryptocurrency as a means of payment, while the Securities and Exchange Commission is expected to take responsibility for overseeing digital gold as an investment asset.
At the same time, the Chairman of the Bank of Brazil has repeatedly stated that he does not consider cryptocurrencies as an alternative to fiat. Based on this, according to a number of experts, the Central Bank will not help create favorable conditions for the use of bitcoin in mutual settlements.

- Ethereum's fundamentals are strong, but analysts expect ETH to further depreciate. The Ethereum blockchain is at its best since its launch. 100 days have passed since the transition from Proof-of-Work to Proof-of-Stake. The chain is now protected by almost half a million validators, and energy consumption has decreased by 99%.
In addition, Ethereum remains the best ecosystem of non-fungible tokens, or NFTs. According to Nansen, almost $24 billion worth of NFTs were minted and sold in 2022. However, these positive factors have not increased ETH quotes. The price of the coin is still close to $1,200, and some analysts predict a further drop in the rate to the $1,000 zone.

- Crypto trader Dan Gambardella, who runs a YouTube channel called Crypto Capital Venture, released a video on whether the crypto industry can reach a capitalization of $100 trillion by 2030. Gambardella quoted Raoul Pal, former Goldman Sachs chief executive and CEO of RealVision, who compared the cryptocurrency industry to the stocks, bonds and real estate industries, whose market capitalization ranges from $250-350 trillion. Based on this analysis, the top manager believes that a $100 trillion crypto market capitalization could become a reality.

- Popular analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin’s current percentage drawdown from its all-time high is approaching the level that signaled the bottom of the 2018 and 2014 bear markets. According to Cowen's chart, bitcoin then fell by more than 80%, today its fall is 75.6% from the high set in November 2021. This figure indicates the approaching end of the bear market. But it is too early to say that the bottom has already been reached.
Cowen is also keeping a close eye on the percentage drawdown of total market capitalization from all-time highs. According to him, it is now down by 72%, which is also still less than the drawdowns observed during the previous two bear markets.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 30, 2022, 05:17:32 PM
What to Expect from the Dollar and the Euro in 2023


We analyzed last week what happened to the two most popular currencies in 2020-2022, what forecasts were given then by the strategists of leading financial institutions for EUR/USD, and how accurate they turned out to be. Now it's time to tell what experts expect from 2023.

(https://i.imgur.com/samuQNz.jpg)

It should be noted right away that these forecasts differ greatly: life has brought too many “surprises” in recent years and has left too many unresolved problems for the future.

What will be the geopolitical situation, in what direction and at what pace will the monetary policy of the Fed and the ECB go, what will happen to the recession and labor markets, will it be possible to defeat inflation and curb energy prices? We have yet to find out the answers to these and many other questions. There are a lot of uncertainties, which do not allow experts to come to a common opinion.

Some believe that EUR/USD will approach the 2000-2002 lows around 0.8500, while others believe that it will rush to 1.6000, as it was in 2008. Of course, these are extreme values. It is highly likely that the pair will not reach either the first or the second of these extremes, and the range of oscillations will be much narrower.  At least, this is what most reputable experts point out, and we will introduce you to their forecasts.


What the Bulls Say for EUR/USD

Deutsche Bank strategists assume that the pair may return to the February-March 2022 figures in 2023 (a two-month fluctuation range of 1.0800-1.1500). In their opinion, this may happen even if the geopolitical situation does not improve and remains at the level of the second half of 2022. However, in their opinion, such a weakening of the dollar is possible only if the Federal Reserve begins to ease its monetary policy in the second half of 2023.

And that is what might not happen. Recall that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said at the press conference following the December FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting that the regulator will keep interest rates at their peak until it is sure that the decline in inflation has become a stable trend. The base rate can be raised to 5.1% in 2023 and remain so high until 2024. (Recall that 4.6% was mentioned as the peak rate in the September statement). According to Jerome Powell, the Fed understands that this will trigger a recession, but is willing to pay that price to control inflation.

It should be noted that the position of the US Central Bank runs counter to the position of the United Nations, which called for a suspension of rate hikes. The UN believes that further tightening of monetary policy could cause serious damage to developing countries, which have already suffered greatly from the increase in the cost of goods in the United States.

In addition to putting pressure on the Fed, there is another way to balance and even weaken the dollar's position. This is what the ECB and several other Central Banks have demonstrated in recent months by raising their own interest rates. As we wrote in the previous review, the common European currency managed to seriously push the dollar over the last three months of 2022 and lift EUR/USD by about 1,200 points.

ECB President Christine Lagarde, as well as her overseas counterpart, showed a hawkish attitude at the press conference on December 15 and made it clear that quantitative tightening (QT) in the Eurozone will not end there: the euro interest rate will face several more increases in 2023. The ECB also plans to start reducing its balance sheet from March.

At the beginning of 2023, the gap between the dollar and euro rates is 200 basis points (4.5% and 2.5%, respectively). The swap market expects that the European regulator may raise its rate by another 100 bp in the coming year, which will provide some support for EUR/USD.

Economists at Bank of America Global Research agree with this development. “According to our baseline scenario,” they write, “the US dollar will remain strong in early 2023 and will switch to a more stable downward trajectory after the Fed's pause.” Starting from Q2, according to BofA, the dollar will gradually weaken, and EUR/USD will rise to 1.1000.

German Commerzbank supports this scenario. “Given the expected change in the interest rate of the Fed and provided that the ECB refrains from cutting interest rates […], our target price for EUR/USD for 2023 is 1.1000,” economists of this banking group predict.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale also votes for the weakening of the dollar and the growth of the pair. “We expect,” says Kit Juckes, Chief Global FX Strategist at SocGen, “that the yield difference between 10-year US and German bonds will fall from 180 basis points to 115 basis points by the end of Q1, and the difference between 2-year interest rates will fall from 190 bps to less than 1%. The last time we saw such a difference between rate and return, EUR/USD was above 1.1500 and this is where it will be by the end of Q1 if it continues to rise at the same rate as it reached 0.9500 at the end of September ".


What the Bears Say For EUR/USD

Analysts at the Economic Forecasting Agency expect the pair to grow to 1.1160 in the coming year, but then, in their opinion, it will fall smoothly but steadily and reach 1.0430 at the end of Q2, 1.0050 at the end of Q3, and end the year at 0.9790.

Economists at Internationale Nederlanden Groep have taken a much more radical stance. ING is confident that all the pressures of 2022 will continue into 2023. High energy prices will continue to put pressure on the European economy. Additional pressure will be exerted if the US Federal Reserve suspends the printing press before the ECB does. Analysts of this largest banking group in the Netherlands believe that the exchange rate of 0.9500 euros per dollar will be adequate in Q1 2023, which, however, may grow to parity of 1.0000 in Q4.

Many other authoritative experts also support the US currency. Thus, Dave Schabes at the University of Chicago's Harris School of Public Policy believes that Russia's war with Ukraine threatens to slow economic growth across Europe and prolong the continent's energy crisis until 2023 and possibly 2024. According to the scientist, this is a specific factor contributing to the strength of the dollar. “The US has always been considered the world's number one safe haven in times of political or military uncertainty,” he says.

Eric Donovan, head of Institutional FX at StoneX, a financial services company, shares the same point of view. “The main reason the dollar has become so strong is because it is still considered a safe-haven currency and it will strengthen during periods when the markets are in a state of fear,” he explains. Therefore, the dollar will remain strong against European currencies as long as this war continues.

***

The past year, 2022, was not an easy one: the problems created by the coronavirus pandemic were superimposed by the tragic events in Ukraine, which have hit the entire global economy. However, as the legendary King Solomon said to the king of Ethiopia: "This too shall pass." We really want to believe this.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 03, 2023, 08:42:59 AM
Traders from NordFX TOP-3 Earned Almost 1.5 Million USD in 2022

(https://i.imgur.com/Mqgmfif.jpg)

NordFX publishes regular statistics on the performance of its clients' trading transactions, as well as the profits received by the company's IB partners. The results of not only the last month, but the whole of 2022 have been summed up this time.

- The best result among traders was shown in December by a client from West Asia (account No. 1657XXX), whose profit amounted to 115,335 USD and was received mainly due to transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
- The second place in NordFX's top three highest-performing clients belongs to the holder of account No. 1637XXX, who earned 46,115 USD from transactions with Brent crude oil (Ukoil.c).
- And, finally, the third step of the December podium was occupied by another representative of the West Asian region (account No. 1644XXX) with a profit of 22,256 USD, who also traded gold (XAU/USD).

Now about the results of the entire 2022. The composition of the top three changed from month to month, with representatives from various countries and regions taking places on the trading podium. In total, the TOP-3 participants earned an impressive amount of 1,441,457 USD last year. Thus, the average income of a trader who was in the TOP-3 was 40,040 USD per month. The client from Southeast Asia (account No. 1620XXX) managed to get the maximum profit, having earned 146,396 USD on transactions with gold (XAU/USD) in April.

Note that gold occupies the top, golden step in the TOP-3 of the most profitable trading instruments. It was transactions with this noble metal that brought NordFX traders to the podium most often. The British pound is on the silver step. As for the most famous pair, EUR/USD, it managed to take only third place in this ranking, having hardly overtaken pairs with the Japanese yen, Canadian and Australian dollars.

Among the NordFX IB partners, December TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 5,830 USD, was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1562ХXХ;
- the next is their compatriot (account No. 1618XXX), who received 5,692 USD in a month;
- and, finally, their colleague from Western Asia (account No. 1621XXX) closes the top three, having earned 3,525 USD in commissions in December.

Like traders, the composition of the top three was constantly updated. In total, its participants were paid 243,344 USD in 2022. The largest commission, 24,700 USD, was credited to a partner from Southeast Asia, account No.1371ХXХ in June.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 04, 2023, 03:15:03 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/xwryzJy.jpg)

- It was on January 3, 2009, that a person or a group of people known as Satoshi Nakamoto launched the main bitcoin network, mining a genesis block with 50 BTC. Shortly before the network was launched, on October 31, 2008, the white paper of the first cryptocurrency was published. The first bitcoin transaction took place on January 12, 2009: Satoshi Nakamoto sent 10 BTC to Hal Finney. A version of Bitcoin_0.1 software was published three days earlier.
Nakamoto's identity and motives for creating bitcoin are still a mystery that the crypto community and beyond are trying to unravel. One of the probable reasons for the creation of bitcoin was the global financial crisis that broke out in 2007-2008, accompanied by the collapse of the largest investment banks, a widespread decline in production, falling demand and prices for raw materials, rising unemployment and active state intervention in the economy.

- The Italian Parliament approved amendments to the 2023 budget, which involve the introduction of a 26% tax on capital gains received from the trading of digital assets. The tax will be levied if there is a profit of more than €2,000 ($2,145), and citizens will be obliged to inform tax authorities about such investments.
The UK, by contrast, has offered tax breaks for non-residents and foreign investors when buying digital assets through local investment managers or brokers. The new rule came into effect on January 1, 2023 and is part of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's plans to make the UK the world's crypto powerhouse.

- Sam Bankman-Fried, 30, founder of cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which collapsed in November, causing billions of dollars in losses to investors, pleads not guilty. He faces eight criminal charges, including electronic fraud, conspiracy to launder money, and campaign finance violations, for which he could spend decades in prison.
According to Reuters, the court has set the first date for the Bankman-Fried trial on October 2, 2023. In the meantime, the defendant has been released to his parents' home in California on $250 million bail. Parents are two of the four people who have paid bail. Lawyers said they were threatened with harm, so two more names have not yet been disclosed.

- The past 12 months have been particularly difficult for the cryptocurrency market, which has lost more than 70% of its total capitalization. However, many analysts seem to be quite optimistic about the short-term outlook for BTC.
Tim Draper, third-generation venture capitalist and co-founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, believes bitcoin will be worth $250,000.
It will take a rally of about 1,400% upside to reach this cosmic mark. Draper is also positive about the halving, which should take place in 2024, believing that this event will have a big impact on the price of the main cryptocurrency.
Another expert with a positive outlook is Carol Alexander, professor of finance at the University of SusForex and Stock Speculating. She had been prone to BTC falling to $10,000 in 2022 in her previous forecast. This did not happen, although the forecast almost came true.
However, the financier predicts now that the first cryptocurrency can reach $50,000 in 2023. The professor believes that the catalyst will be the influx of more “dominoes” that fell apart after the collapse of the FTX exchange. “2023 will be a managed bull market, not a bubble,” she writes. - We will not see a jump in the rate, as before. But we will see a month or two of stable trending prices interspersed with periods of limited range, and perhaps a couple of short-term crashes.”
Alistair Milne, IT Director of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, is also among those who gave several high-profile forecasts about the bitcoin rate. In his opinion, “We should see bitcoin at least $45,000 by the end of 2023.” That being said, Milne warns that “if central banks decide to allow a higher inflation target […] to avoid a recession, hard assets could become fashionable again.” He also tweeted that BTC should reach $150,000-300,000 by the end of 2024, “and this is probably the peak of opportunity for the bulls.”
Another expert joining the bull train is Eric Wall, Chief Investment Officer at cryptocurrency hedge fund Arcane Assets. It is also called the "altcoin killer". However, his forecast for 2023 looks much more modest: the expert believes that the bitcoin rate may exceed $30,000. Eric Wall often bases his comments on the BTC Rainbow Price Chart, an analytical tool created by BlockchainCenter. And this time he said that the $15,400 exchange rate was the bottom for bitcoin.
Unlike previous forecasts, strategists at the British international financial conglomerate Standard Chartered believe that the BTC rate may, on the contrary, fall to $5,000. In their opinion, “more and more crypto companies and exchanges are facing insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and the collapse of investor confidence in digital assets.”

- Luke Dashjr (alias Luke-Jr), one of the main developers of the first cryptocurrency core, who has made more than 200 proposals to the bitcoin code since 2011, is now the victim of hackers. Luke-Jr claims to have lost "virtually" all of his BTC in a brazen hack that took place on New Year's Eve. The programmer said in a January 1 message that hackers gained access to his Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) key, a common security method. As a result, more than 215 BTC ($3.6 million) were stolen.
Dashjr said he had "no idea" how the attackers got access to his key. He only noticed the recent hack after receiving emails from Coinbase and Kraken about login attempts, he said.

- Dante Disparte, Head of Strategic Development at Circle, shared his opinion on the developments in the cryptocurrency sector over the past year and the prospects for the industry in 2023. According to the specialist, digital assets and blockchain will still remain indispensable tools of the economy, despite the terrible events in 2022, which indicate not a crypto winter, but a whole “ice age” for the industry. However, despite these setbacks, many major banks and financial institutions will continue to introduce cryptocurrencies into their product lines. As for the bankruptcy of several crypto-lenders and the collapse of the FTX exchange, these events, according to Dispart, can be a boon for the industry, as they lay the foundation for more responsible and affordable investments.

- Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki revealed that he is buying more bitcoin (BTC) at current prices. Kiyosaki explained that, unlike altcoins, bitcoin is likely to be able to dodge the hammer of regulators: “Why? Because bitcoin is classified as a commodity much like gold, silver and oil. Most crypto tokens are classified as securities, and the US SEC will crush most of them.”

- As it turns out, Darren Nguyen, a 25-year-old crypto trader who traded nearly $2 billion worth of crypto in 2021, was running his crypto empire from the comfort of his parents' home in Sydney. This is evidenced by an article published on January 2 in The Australian. Until now, the family has kept quiet about the crypto business Nguyen runs, and his mother refused to answer the question of whether she knew about what the child was doing under her roof.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 07, 2023, 12:43:08 PM
USDJPY and GBPUSD: What Happened in 2022, What Will Happen in 2023


We talked a week ago about how economists from the world's leading financial institutions see the future of EUR/USD in 2023. However, our reviews have included two more major pairs for many years, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. And it would be unfair to ignore them this time. Moreover, after the euro, the Japanese yen and the British pound are the most significant components in the formation of the US Dollar Index DXY (13.6% and 11.9%, respectively).

But in addition to forecasts for the future, we will traditionally tell you what the experts' expectations were regarding the past, 2022, and how close they turned out to be.

(https://i.imgur.com/7wJhrzR.jpg)


USD/JPY: First North, Then South

We titled the forecast for this pair a year ago as “Japan Needs a Weak Yen”. And this was absolutely true: starting at 115.00 on January 1, thanks to ultra-soft monetary policy and a negative interest rate (minus 0.1%), the pair came close to 152.00 on October 21. The last time it was this high was 32 years ago. Even the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) were afraid of such a weakening of their national currency, and currency interventions were urgently launched to save it. The yen was also assisted by the expectations of the US Federal Reserve's transition from an extremely tough, hawkish policy to a softer one. As a result, the annual dynamics of USD/JPY took the following form (data are as of the end of each quarter): Q1 - 121.00, Q2 - 135.00, Q3 - 144.00 and Q4 - 131.00.

 Almost none of the experts doubted a year ago that the differentiation between the approaches of the US and Japanese regulators would strengthen the dollar's position. But almost no one expected that the jump would be so powerful. The closest to reality (but still far enough) was the forecast of the Dutch banking ING Group (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), which looked like this: Q1 - 114.00, Q2 - 115.00, Q3 - 118.00 and Q4 - 120.00. Morgan Stanley (Q4 - 118.00) and Amundi (Q4 - 116.00) are next in descending order.

The French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, the British Barclays Bank and CIBC (Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce) also indicated a maximum of 116.00, but not at the end of the year, but in the Q2. Further, according to analysts of these financial institutions, the yen had to move the dollar to the zone of 114.00-115.00. Goldman Sachs missed the most, they believed that the pair would meet 2023 with a fall to 111.00.

The final statistics for the past year are not yet known. But it is expected that the final consumer inflation in 2022 will be 2.9%. This is slightly above the target, but well below the performance of other major countries whose regulators have been aggressively raising rates over the past year in an effort to curb price increases. Moreover, according to BoJ forecasts, this figure may fall to 1.6% by the end of 2023. And this raises a logical question: if everything is so good, why tighten the current monetary policy, raise the base rate and create problems for producers?

The Central Bank of Japan did just that at its last meeting last year, on December 20, leaving the rate unchanged. However, it still managed to surprise the market by expanding the range of fluctuations in government bond yields to 0.5%. This decision led to the growth of the national currency against the dollar by more than 3%.

Further, a period of calm is likely to come, and there will be no major changes in the monetary policy of the Central Bank of Japan during the Q1. Certain steps can be expected only after April 08. It is on this day that the term of office of BoJ head Haruhiko Kuroda ends, and a new candidate with a tougher position may take his place. However, despite the fact that there are candidates with more hawkish views among the candidates, we can hardly expect radical changes.

We described what the US Federal Reserve, counterpart for USD/JPY, plans for 2023 in the previous review. And if the Japanese regulator remains in its current positions, the interest rate gap will increase, but not by much. And then it stabilizes completely.  Some experts suggest that the state of affairs in China may have a serious impact on the yen. If China's economic indicators continue to sag, the Japanese currency may become a "safe haven" for Asian investors, which will help strengthen it.

Perhaps it was the above factors that influenced the opinion of the strategists at the world's leading banks. Thus, ING assumes that USD/JPY may approach 125.00 at the end of 2023. Societe Generale gives a similar quarterly forecast: Q1 - 135.00, Q2 - 135.00, Q3 - 130.00 and Q4 - 125.00. HSBC also estimated that it will meet 2024 almost where it is now, around 130.00.

There are still 12 months to go until the end of December, and a lot of unexpected things can happen during this time. The previous three years have been clear evidence of this: the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine have shattered many forecasts and calculations. That is why it is interesting to see what experts say in a shorter time period.

The range of opinions regarding the dynamics of the pair in Q1 is unusually wide. Some analysts (not many of them) expect the pair to further decline, now to the 124.00-125.00 zone. Goldman Sachs and Brown Brothers Harriman, on the contrary, expect the pair to test the 150.00 height again. Barclays Bank and Bank of America are also looking north at 146.00-147.00. And although the forecasts of ING, BNP Paribas and CIBC look somewhat more modest (136.00-138.00), it is obvious that most influencers expect the dollar to strengthen against the yen in January-March.


GBP/USD: Still at the Сrossroads

Last year's forecast for this pair was headlined "At the Crossroads of Three Roads." And this was due to the fact that the position of the Bank of England (BoE), unlike its counterpart from Japan, was much less predictable. There were three options: north, south, or east.

Although the UK's dependence on energy was incomparably lower than in the European Union, the global crisis associated with anti-Russian sanctions did not bypass it.  Starting at 1.3500 on January 1, 2022, the pair moved as follows (the data are as of the end of each quarter): Q1 - 1.3100, Q2 - 1.2100, Q3 - 1.1100 and Q4 - 1.2000. GBP/USD reached a 37-year low on September 26, 2022, finding a bottom around 1.0350.

Analysts at ING had forecast that the pound would fall somewhere in the middle of a triangle of a stronger US dollar, stable commodity currencies and weaker low-yielding currencies. Therefore, according to their scenario, GBP/USD  should have moved sideways: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3400, Q3 - 1.3400 and Q4 - 1.3400. However, they were wrong. But this mistake is nothing compared to the patriotic scenario of the British bank Barclays: Q1 - 1.3300, Q2 - 1.3700, Q3 - 1.4000 and Q4 - 1.4200. That is, instead of 1.4000, the pair was at 1.0350 at the end of Q3. An error of 3,850 points! 

Thanks to the tightening of the BoE position and expectations of a softening of the Fed's position, the pound managed to win back part of the losses and rise to the 1.2000 zone in October-December 2022. However, specialists of the German Commerzbank consider the current situation only a temporary respite and expect increased pressure on the pound.

With the economic recovery from the crisis, the US is doing much better than the UK. Representatives of the Central Bank of the United Kingdom spoke openly about the difficult times. A recession began last year, which, according to the forecasts of the Central Bank, will last until mid-2024, while the economy will shrink by 2.9%. At the moment, the pound's vulnerability is also associated with a large current account deficit and galloping inflation, which shows multi-year highs. First of all, this situation has arisen due to the sharp increase in the cost of importing oil and gas.

It is likely that the Bank of England will continue to raise rates in 2023 in an attempt to bring price growth under control. At the moment, the Fed and BoE interest rates are 4.50% and 3.50%, respectively. The gap is not as big as it used to be, only 100 bp. This advantage of the dollar may continue, and rates may reach parity if the British regulator becomes even more hawkish.  In the meantime, economists are talking about raising rates in Q1 and Q2 by 50 bps (basis points) and 25 bps, respectively, to 4.25%.

In such a situation, according to HSBC, one of the largest financial conglomerates in the UK, events in GBP/USD will develop as follows: Q1 - 1.2200, Q2 - 1.2300, Q3 - 1.2400 and Q4 - 1.2500. The French Societe Generale Group sees quotes as follows: Q1 - 1.2000, Q4 - 1.2400.

As in the case of USD/JPY, the forecast for GBP/USD for the next quarter looks more specific and varied: from 1.0700 at TD Securities Research to 1.2600 at Citi Bank. In the middle of this range are forecasts: BNP Paribas (1.0800), Barclays (1.1300), CIBC (1.1500), Scotiabank (1.2000) and Westpac Institutional Bank (1.2200).

***

We will traditionally switch from annual and quarterly forecasts to weekly ones starting next week. We think the guidelines will be much clearer there.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 11, 2023, 02:47:31 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/CNNKHo6.jpg)

- Nine months before the collapse of the FTX bitcoin exchange, its top management spent $40 million on luxury hotels, flights and food. Business Insider writes about this with reference to court documents. Thus, the founder of the stock exchange, Sam Bankman-Fried, lived in a $30 million penthouse in the prestigious resort of Albany (New Providence, Bahamas) before his arrest. In addition, Bankman-Fried's parents, himself, and FTX executives have owned at least 19 luxury properties worth $121 million.

- The Hong Kong Financial Secretary announced that the jurisdiction is ready to accept cryptocurrency companies from around the world. The official noted that the authorities of this administrative region of China have recently completed work on a licensing regime for the industry. In accordance with the adopted rules, crypto companies are subject to the requirements that apply to the traditional financial sector. Earlier, the Hong Kong Financial Services and Treasury Bureau announced the introduction of regulatory mechanisms to protect investors.
Analysts expect that regulatory pressure on the crypto industry will increase in many countries in the coming year. The long-awaited law MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation) will come into force. Most likely, the SEC will also do something important in terms of regulating cryptocurrencies. And it is possible that such steps will help restore investors' interest and confidence in the industry, lost after the turmoil of 2022.

- Despite the recovery of cryptocurrency markets after the collapse of the FTX exchange, the situation with Binance has not yet returned to normal. According to a recent Forbes report, the exchange lost $12 billion in assets due to users continuing to withdraw money from the exchange. Despite statements from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao that the situation has calmed down, the outflow of funds is now only increasing.
According to a Forbes study, Binance lost about 15% of its assets. According to analytical company Defillama, customers of this largest crypto exchange withdrew approximately $360 million last Friday alone.
The performance of Binance Coin (BNB) and Binance USD (BUSD), the exchange's own tokens, is the best indicator of investor mistrust. According to Forbes, BNB has lost 29% of its value in the last two months and more than 37% compared to last year. In addition, the exchange was losing about $3 billion a year as a result of the cessation of bitcoin spot trading fees.

- Bill Miller, an American investor and fund manager, has confirmed his belief in bitcoin and called it a completely different asset. According to him, the Fed intervened actively in the situation in order to save the markets during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the BTC network, without any support, worked continuously and without interruptions. Miller also noted that the global market has risen by only 70% since the crash in March 2020, while the price of bitcoin has risen by 190% over the same period. Thus, BTC is a more efficient asset.
The expert also believes that it is wrong to link BTC to the bankruptcy of crypto companies such as FTX and Celsius. He emphasized that these are all centralized organizations, which should not be confused with the decentralized bitcoin network. In addition, Miller advised the public not to confuse volatility with value, stating that the price of the main cryptocurrency will rise by the end of the year.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Dave the Wave, known for predicting the collapse of bitcoin in 2021, believes that the coin is now on track to break its “long-term resistance diagonal”. In his opinion, "a technical movement within the next month or two" may be enough to break this resistance. Dave the Wave has previously said that its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model indicates that bitcoin could rise to $160,000 by January 2025.

- Ukrainian startup Global Ledger has become a partner of the United Nations Department on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in launching a new educational course on cryptocurrencies. This will be the third such virtual resource program for UNODC.
Participants will be able to conduct real cybercrime investigations during the course, gain experience both on the basis of historical data and on "live" cases. In the context of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the program is designed to train representatives of the Ukrainian Cyber Police and other services to identify and prevent the use of cryptocurrencies in criminal and terrorist activities and circumvent international sanctions.

- The German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) has issued an official warning about the new Godfather malware that collects user data in banking and cryptocurrency apps. Experts discovered the Trojan back in 2021, but the program was underdeveloped then. The improved and finished build of The Godfather was discovered on Android devices in December 2022 for the first time.
BaFin said that the program targets more than 400 apps operating not only in Germany but throughout the world. The principle of operation of The Godfather is simple: the program simulates banking and cryptocurrency application websites, stealing user data at the time of entry. Moreover, the software can send push notifications to receive two-factor authentication codes. BaFin experts are trying to figure out how the malware gets on users' devices.

- Blockchain security company CertiK reported earlier that the level of fraud and hacking in the cryptocurrency industry will increase significantly this year as the industry becomes more popular. Another computer security company, Kaspersky Lab, believes that “a major cyber epidemic of unprecedented proportions may occur in 2023”, as the BlueNoroff cybergroup has again intensified its attacks on organizations working with cryptocurrencies, such as venture funds, banks and startups.
Kaspersky Lab experts discovered new BlueNoroff traps for startup employees in autumn 2022: 70 fake domains masquerading as well-known venture funds and banks from Japan, the USA, Vietnam, and the UAE. In addition, hackers are now experimenting with new file types to inject malware. For example, it can be an email with an allegedly important document in the “doc” format attached. If you open this file, the device will be immediately infected with malware, and attackers can monitor all daily operations and plan to steal funds.

– Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said in a recent interview with CNBC that the prospects for cryptocurrencies are not so good, but everything is not so bad either. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have remained stable lately despite the bad news. Leveraged traders closed out their positions in December 2022, creating what the entrepreneur called a “clean market.” In addition, market participants have significantly reduced their spending and will continue to do so in order to get through the transition period.
 Novogratz also stressed that 2023 will be a defining year for the future development of the industry. At the same time, he pointed to the problems that exist between Gemini and Genesis, which could create an unpleasant situation for the entire digital asset market.

- The founder and CEO of BTC.TOP & B.TOP crypto projects, Jiang Zhuoer, studied the historical charts of the bitcoin and ethereum rates. All three previous bear markets took the same amount of time to go from the previous high to the bottom. Thus, the expert concludes that the four-year cycle is still working.
Based on this, Zhiang Zhuoer believes that we are now in the last sideways period of the bear market bottom. Events such as bankruptcies of crypto companies will no longer have a significant impact on prices. The optimistic estimate suggests that if the 2018 scenario repeats, BTC price could stay flat for another two months before the next bullish rally begins.
The analyst emphasized that Ethereum now looks much stronger than bitcoin. Currency freedom and increased opportunities for smart contracts have attracted new users and encouraged the creation of innovative apps. Zhiang Zhuoer noted that the decline in ETH was no more than that of BTC, and the ETH/BTC ratio was kept at a high level. Bitcoin's inflation rate was 1.72%, while after switching to the PoS algorithm, the same rate for ETH was only 0.01%. According to the expert, ETH deflation will have a very positive effect on its future price, and Ethereum will begin to grow in value earlier than bitcoin and will become the leader of the next bullish market. This should happen between March and May 2023.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 15, 2023, 08:24:12 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 16 - 20, 2023


EUR/USD: Low Inflation Has Dropped the Dollar

The main event of the past week, which dealt another blow to the dollar, was the publication on Thursday, January 12, of data on consumer inflation in the US. The actual figures were fully in line with market expectations. The consumer price index (CPI) in annual terms fell to its lowest level since October 2021 in December: from 7.1% to 6.5%, and excluding food products and energy, from 6.0% to 5.7%. Thus, the US inflation rate has been slowing down for 6 months in a row, and core inflation has been slowing down for 3 consecutive months, which is a strong catalyst for easing the Fed's current monetary policy.

Market participants are firmly convinced that the interest rate will be increased by no more than 25 basis points (bp) at the February meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee). In particular, Michelle Bowman, a member of the Board of Governors, and Mary Deli, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, spoke about this. The head of the Philadelphia Fed, Patrick Harker, left the camp of the hawks as well, also saying that the rate should be raised only by 25 bp.

Fed chief Jerome Powell noted a month ago that the regulator would keep rates at their peak until they were sure that the decline in inflation has become a sustainable trend.  According to him, the base rate may be increased to 5.1% in 2023 and stay that high until 2024. However, the latest macro statistics, including data on inflation, business activity and the labor market, suggests that the peak value of the rate will be 4.75%. Moreover, it can even be lowered to 4.50% by the end of 2023.

As a result of these forecasts, the US currency depreciated against all G10 currencies. The DXY dollar index updated the June 2022 low, falling to 102.08 (it climbed above 114.00 at the end of September). The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to a monthly low of 3.42%, while EUR/USD jumped to 1.0867, the highest since last April.

The yield spread between 10-year US and German bonds is at its lowest level since April 2020, with smaller European countries narrowing their spreads. This dynamic indicates a decrease in the likelihood of the EU economy falling into a deep recession. Moreover, the winter in Europe turned out to be quite warm and energy prices went down, despite problems with their supply from Russia. And this put pressure on the US currency as well.

China could help the dollar. According to various estimates, China's GDP growth may reach 4.8-5.0%, or even higher in 2023. Such economic activity will add 1.0-1.2% to global inflation, which will give Fed hawks certain advantages in maintaining tight monetary policy. But all this is in the future. The market is currently waiting for the next meeting of the FOMC on February 01 and for the statements that will be made by the US Federal Reserve officials on its results.

EUR/USD closed last week at 1.0833. 20% of analysts expect further strengthening of the euro and the growth of the pair in the coming days, 50% expect that the US currency will be able to win back part of the losses. The remaining 30% of experts do not expect either the first or the second from the pair. The picture among the indicators on D1 is different: all 100% are colored green, but 25% of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. The nearest support for the pair is at 1.0800, then there are levels and zones 1.0740-1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0620-1.0680, 1.0560 and 1.0480-1.0500. The bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0865, 1.0935, 1.0985-1.1010, 1.1130, after which they will try to gain a foothold in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

Next week, traders should take into account that Monday is a holiday in the US, Martin Luther King Day. The calendar can highlight Tuesday, January 17, when the values of the Consumer Price Indices (CPI) and Economic Sentiment (ZEW) in Germany will become known. Data on Eurozone consumer prices and US retail sales will be released on Wednesday, January 18. The December value of the American Producer Price Index (PPI) will also become known the same day.

GBP/USD: Surprise from UK GDP

GBP/USD took advantage of broad pressure on the dollar on Thursday, January 12 to rise to its highest level since December 15, reaching 1.2246. The UK GDP gave the pound bulls a pleasant surprise the next day, on Friday, December 13: it suddenly turned out that the country's economy expanded by 0.1% over the month against expectations of its fall by 0.3%. However, in annual terms, GDP was significantly lower than the previous value: 0.2% against 1.5% a month earlier. As a result, the pair ended the five-day period a little lower than the local high, at the level of 1.2234.

An important day for the pound may be February 02, when the next meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) will take place. And while investors expect the Fed to slow down the rate of interest rate hikes, the Bank of England, on the contrary, will further tighten monetary policy. It is predicted that the rate may rise from the current 3.50% to the level of 4.50% by the summer, which will serve as a certain support for the British currency.

As for the short term, here the median forecast for GBP/USD looks as uncertain as possible: 10% of experts side with the bulls, 25% side with the bears, and the vast majority (65%) have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 90% are colored green, of which a third gives signals that the pair is overbought, the color of the remaining 10% is neutral gray. Trend indicators are 100% on the green side. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2200-1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2085-1.2115, 1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2250-1.2270, 1.2330-1.2345, 1.2425-1.2450 and 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700 and 1.2750.

As for the developments regarding the UK economy in the coming week, we can highlight Tuesday January 17, when we find out what is happening in the country's labor market. The value of such an important inflation indicator as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published the same day, which will certainly have an impact on the BoE's decision on the interest rate. Data on December retail sales in the UK will also be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, January 20. It is expected that they will rise by 0.4% compared to the fall of 0.4% in November thanks to the pre-Christmas hype.

USD/JPY: Should We Expect Surprises from the Bank of Japan

The yen turned out to be the favorite of the week, and even on Friday, January 13, it continued to put pressure on the dollar, fixing a local low at 127.45. It put the last chord of the week a little higher, at the level of 127.85.

Why did this happen? First, the yen strengthened against the background of a falling dollar and a decrease in US bond yields (the US/Japan spread fell to its lowest level since August 2022). Being the most sensitive to the dynamics of treasuries, it managed to win back 2.5% from the dollar. And second, the press seriously helped it. Japanese newspaper Yomiuri Shimbun, citing confidential sources, reported that Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials plan to discuss the implications of their ultra-dove approach to monetary policy and consider adjusting their bond-buying program to "reduce its negative effects" on January 17-18. Other adjustments in the actions of the regulator are not ruled out.

The Bank of Japan is the latest major central bank to keep interest rates at a negative level of -0.1%. We wrote Earlier that a radical change in monetary policy can be expected only after April 8. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end hs term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. And now, almost all experts interviewed by Bloomberg believe that the Japanese Central Bank will not change the main parameters of its policy next week but will limit itself to discussing them. At the same time, 38% of respondents expect real changes either in April or June.

Of course, it will be possible to give more accurate forecasts after the January meeting of the Bank of Japan. So far, the opinion of analysts regarding the near future is distributed as follows: 50% of analysts vote for the correction of the pair to the north, and 50% simply decline to comment. The number of votes cast for the continuation of the downtrend turns out to be 0 this time. For indicators on D1, the picture mirrors the readings for GBP/USD. Among the oscillators, 90% are colored red, of which a third gives signals that the pair is oversold, the color of the remaining 10% is neutral gray. Trend indicators have 100% on the red side. The nearest support level is located in the zone 127.00-127.45, followed by the levels and zones 126.35-126.55, 125.00, 121.65-121.85. Levels and resistance zones are 128.00-128.25, 129.60-130.00, 131.25-131.70, 132.85, 133.60, 134.40 and then 137.50.

From the events of the coming week, in addition to the mentioned meeting of the Bank of Japan and its interest rate decision, the market's attention will be drawn to the subsequent press conferences and comments from the regulator's officials regarding its monetary policy.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Thaw or Crypto Spring?

(https://i.imgur.com/JuLVNw5.jpg)

BTC/USD has once again returned to the $18,500-20,000 area. This zone acted as support since last June, and it turned into resistance in November. The pair traded there in December 2017 as well, after which a protracted crypto winter followed. Bitcoin was able to return to these values only three years later, at the end of November-December 2020. This rise marked the beginning of a powerful bullish rally then: the coin rose in price by 3.5 times in less than six months, reaching $64,750 in April 2021. This was followed by another collapse.

How will bitcoin behave this time: will it collapse like in 2017, or will it take off like in 2020? Is this the onset of crypto spring or just a small thaw? There is no consensus on this matter. It is possible that the pair's current rise is due not to the growing strength of digital gold, but to the dollar, which has been weakening for 16 consecutive weeks. Bitcoin received a powerful boost after the publication of the US CPI. Against this background, the voices of bitcoin optimists sound more confident and louder. Moreover, the liquidators of the FTX exchange found liquid assets worth $5 billion, which will be used to pay off part of the debts to creditors. According to some analysts, along with the decline in CPI, this makes it possible for crypto markets not to worry too much about the macroeconomic picture, which is still bearish.

Dante Disparte, Head of Strategic Development at Circle, believes that despite the 2022 Ice Age, digital assets and blockchain will continue to be integral tools of the economy. Major banks and financial institutions will continue to introduce cryptocurrencies into their product lines. As for the bankruptcy of several crypto-lenders and the collapse of the FTX exchange, these events, according to Dispart, can be a boon for the industry, as they lay the foundation for more responsible and affordable investments.

Increasing regulatory pressure can help restore investor interest and confidence in the industry. The long-awaited MiCA (Markets in Crypto Assets Regulation) is expected to come into force this year. The SEC is highly likely to take a number of important steps in this direction as well.

Another expert with a positive outlook is University of SusForex and Stock Speculating finance professor Carol Alexander. She had been prone to BTC falling to $10,000 in 2022 in her previous forecast. This did not happen, although the forecast almost came true. However, the financier predicts now that the first cryptocurrency can reach $50,000 in 2023. The professor believes that the catalyst will be the influx of more “dominoes” that fell apart after the collapse of the FTX exchange. “2023 will be a managed bull market, not a bubble,” she writes. - We will not see a jump in the rate, as before. But we will see a month or two of stable trending prices interspersed with periods of limited range, and perhaps a couple of short-term crashes.”

Bill Miller, an American investor, and fund manager, also defended bitcoin. He believes it is wrong to link BTC to the bankruptcy of crypto companies such as FTX and Celsius, since these are centralized entities that should not be confused with the decentralized bitcoin network. Miller has once again confirmed his belief in the main cryptocurrency and said that its price will definitely increase by the end of the year.

According to Alistair Milne, Chief Information Officer of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, “we should see bitcoin at least at $45,000 by the end of 2023.” However, the specialist warns that “if central banks decide to allow a higher inflation target […] to avoid a recession, hard assets could become fashionable again.” As for the longer-term outlook, Milne believes that BTC should reach $150,000-300,000 by the end of 2024, “and this is probably the peak of opportunities for the bulls.”

Tim Draper, a third-generation venture capitalist and co-founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, is also hoping for 2024. He believes that the halving planned for this year will have a big impact on the price of the main cryptocurrency, which will eventually reach $250,000.

Another expert who joined the bull train was analyst Dave the Wave, known for predicting the 2021 bitcoin crash. He believes that the coin is now on its way to breaking through its “long-term resistance diagonal.” In his opinion, "a technical movement over the next month or two may be enough to break this resistance." Dave the Wave has previously said that its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC) model indicates that bitcoin could rise to $160,000 by January 2025.

Eric Wall, Chief Investment Officer at crypto-currency hedge fund Arcane Assets, gives a much more modest forecast: the expert believes that the price of bitcoin may exceed $30,000 in the coming year. Eric Wall often bases his comments on the BTC Rainbow Price Chart, an analytical tool created by BlockchainCenter. And this time he said that the $15,400 exchange rate was the bottom for bitcoin.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder and CEO of a number of crypto projects, agrees with Eric Wall. By his calculations, all three previous bear markets took the same amount of time to go from the previous high to the bottom. Based on this, Jiang Zhuoer concludes that we are now in the last sideways period of the bear market bottom. His optimistic estimate suggests that if the 2018 scenario repeats, BTC price could be flat for another two months before the next bull run begins. At the same time, events such as bankruptcies of crypto companies will no longer have a significant impact on the prices of major digital assets.

The strategists of the British international financial conglomerate Standard Chartered strongly disagree with this statement. According to them, “more and more crypto companies and exchanges are facing insufficient liquidity, leading to further bankruptcies and the collapse of investor confidence,” which could lead to BTC falling to $5,000 this year.

It is said that the truth lies in the middle. This is exactly the “optimistic-pessimistic” position taken by Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz. He said in a recent interview with CNBC that the prospects for cryptocurrencies are not so good, but everything is not so bad either. Leveraged traders closed out their positions in December 2022, creating what the entrepreneur called a “clean market.” In addition, market participants have significantly reduced their spending and will continue to do so in order to get through the transition period. Novogratz also stressed that 2023 will be a defining year for the future development of the industry. At the same time, he pointed to the problems that exist between Gemini and Genesis, which could create an unpleasant situation for the entire digital asset market.

Another source of nervousness is the Binance situation. According to a recent Forbes report, the exchange lost $12 billion in assets due to users continuing to withdraw money from the exchange. And despite statements from Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao that the situation has calmed down, the outflow of funds is now only increasing.

The new year 2023 has just come. There are still eleven and a half months ahead, which will show which of the forecasts will turn out to be closer to reality. In the meantime, at the time of writing the review (Saturday January 13), BTC/USD has broken through the $20,000 horizon and is trading in the $20,500 zone. The total crypto market capitalization is $0.968 trillion ($0.790 trillion at the low of December 30). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 25 to 46 points in a week, but still remains in the Fear zone, although it is already close to the Neutral state.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 18, 2023, 01:21:07 PM
NordFX Efforts in the Middle East Are Recognized by Forexing Award

(https://i.imgur.com/RRPacTN.jpg)

10 years ago, back in 2013, NordFX won the Best Forex Arabic Platform award at the MENA 12th Forex Show. In 2020, the Forex Awards Ratings Expert Committee also recognized the company's efforts in this region. And now, following a vote by traders and visitors to Forexing site, NordFX has been named “Best Broker Middle East 2022”.

Forexing is a popular global financial news portal delivering up-to-date Forex & Other Financial market news and analysis to Newbie and Professional Traders. In addition, the portal pages contain educational and other useful materials, the purpose of which is to help visitors improve the efficiency of their trading.

Forexing presents Forex Awards to Brokers across the Globe for their best approach to clients for the particular year. The portal team reviews, evaluates and nominates the best companies in the industry. Throughout the voting time, all the retail traders are welcome to vote for their favorite company for a particular service. The awards are given to the retail international and regional Forex brokers that receive the most votes. One of the winners in 2022 was NordFX, which confidently outperformed its competitors in the Best Broker Middle East nomination.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 18, 2023, 01:39:08 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- Texas A&M University (USA) will launch an educational program dedicated to bitcoin in spring 2023. The Bitcoin Protocol course will be included in the educational program of students at such university schools as as May Business School and College Engineering. The initiative is based on the book Programming Bitcoin by Bitcoin Core developer Jimmy Song.

- Shaktikanta Das, Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), said during a speech at the BT Banking & Economy summit that digital assets should be completely banned in the country. “The position of the RBI is extremely clear: all cryptocurrencies should be banned. However, blockchain technology needs to be supported as it has many other uses,” he explained.
Das emphasized the unreliability of cryptocurrency due to constant price changes and the “ambiguity” of the definition. According to him, some consider it an asset, others consider it a financial product. However, according to the manager, “disguising a cryptocurrency as a financial product or asset” is inappropriate. As for changing the price of coins, this is 100% speculation and gambling, which, by the way, are prohibited in India.

- Unlike India, the US has a more loyal attitude towards cryptocurrencies and other digital assets. Thus, the country's Congress has created a new subcommittee that will deal with new rules for regulators regarding digital currencies, as well as develop policies to further promote digital financial technologies.
The new organization will be led by Republican Congressman French Hill, who previously led the Fintech and Artificial Intelligence Task Forces. Hill noted in his statement that at a time of significant technological advancement and change in the financial sector, the subcommittee's job is to promote responsible innovation by encouraging the development of FinTech in the country.

- Bank of America (BAC) researchers believe that digital currencies, CBDCs and stablecoins are a natural evolution of money and payments. Central bank digital currencies can “revolutionize global financial systems and may become the most significant technological achievement in the history of money.”
BAC researchers believe that monetary regulators in developed and developing countries will focus on the efficiency of payments and their availability. However, some countries will not issue such means of payment even in the next ten years. But their central banks will have to “either innovate technologically or become irrelevant in the long term.”

- Kevin O'Leary, head of O'Leary Ventures and host of the TV show Shark Tank, expects even more crypto exchanges to crash in the industry. The reason for this, in his opinion, is people's ignorance. “If you ask me if there's going to be another crash to zero, 100% that's going to happen. And this is going to happen again and again... I don't think it's about regulation. It will not change the scale of fraud,” the investor said. Legislators are likely to put in place a solid regulatory framework soon, O'Leary said, but that won't do the industry any good.

- The value of bitcoin could increase to $50,000-100,000 over the next two to three years. This opinion was expressed in an interview with CNBC by the founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. The businessman called 2023 a “recovery year” for the main cryptocurrency.
Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve will influence the digital gold rate. And if the financial regulator takes measures to stimulate the economy in the middle of the year, this will be a good impetus for the rise in the bitcoin price. This is evidenced by the January price jump caused by US inflation data for December. The market decided based on this data that the Fed could significantly ease its monetary policy, as a result, BTC quotes went up sharply.

- Positive sentiment dominates the cryptocurrency market, and its total capitalization reached $1 trillion on January 16, for the first time in a long time. In turn, bitcoin is firmly held above $20,000. Analyst Craig Erlam noted that digital assets have become the main beneficiary during the current increase in risk appetite.
In his opinion, it is also possible to say that the industry has recovered from the recent FTX collapse. On the other hand, there are no specific fundamental grounds for the development of a bullish trend at the moment. In the current conditions, it is necessary to monitor the macroeconomic situation, as it will have a strong impact on the dynamics of digital assets. At the moment, the consensus forecast of market participants is based on the fact that following the results of the February meeting, the Fed will raise the refinancing rate by only 0.25%. In this case, the bullish mood in the cryptocurrency market is likely to receive serious support.

- Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone believes that the bottom in the cryptocurrency market has already been passed. But his opinion on the Fed's monetary policy differs from that of other analysts.
McGlone has noted that the charts are reminiscent of the 2018 dynamics, when the price of the first cryptocurrency rebounded from $5,000. However, the macroeconomic situation is now completely different, which is why the bitcoin growth may stop at current values. Thus, the NASDAQ index may continue to fall, and the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been quite significant in recent years. “We are still pulling liquidity from global markets, and there are reasons for this. And even if equities and other risky assets rise, liquidity will remain limited by central banks. The big difference from 2018 is that the Fed had already begun to ease its policy then, and we do not see any easing today,” the Bloomberg strategist explained.
“Look at the NASDAQ, the chart is breaking through the 200-week SMA. This has only happened 3 times in history, and the Fed has always eased its monetary policy. But the US Central Bank is aggressively tightening it now. The overall picture is optimistic for bitcoin, but the situation is unprecedented now, so anything can happen,” McGlone said.

- Legendary stock trader and analyst Peter Brandt, who, among other things, predicted the 2018 BTC correction accurately, gave a fresh forecast for the bitcoin movement in the short and long term.
According to the specialist, BTC will be able to realize growth to levels near $25,000 in the near future. After that, a correction is not ruled out by the end of spring, that will give the cryptocurrency strength for a new rally. As a result, the coin will reach its previous highs near $68,000 in the second half of 2023. After that, another correction and a subsequent update of the absolute high are possible.
Peter Brandt does not rule out bitcoin rising to $150,000 by early 2025. However, he warns that this is nothing more than his guess. Nobody knows how the main cryptocurrency will actually behave, according to the eminent trader.

- Peter Brandt was supported in this opinion by artificial intelligence (AI) of the ChatGPT test platform. This platform has become popular due to its ability to solve a wide range of tasks with high accuracy, including asset trading.
Experts from Finbold asked the artificial intelligence what the bitcoin price will be in 2030. Finbold suggested that ChatGPT would be able to provide a fairly accurate forecast based on historical BTC price data, market data, technical and fundamental analysis, and other indicators. But the AI didn't live up to expectations. It was never able to predict the exact rate and admitted that it is hard to name the price of the coin in the long term. The AI cited high market volatility and unclear regulatory rules as the reasons. However, the AI, like Peter Brandt, believes that the flagship cryptocurrency has potential for growth in the coming years. This will be possible due to the development of technology, the maturation of the cryptocurrency market and their massive
distribution.

- Ben Armstrong, a popular cryptocurrency YouTuber, believes that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will jump to $30,000 by the end of February 2023. However, analyst and investor Ali Martinez disagrees. According to him, miners have recently been actively selling their assets to lock in profits. In addition, according to the expert, traders trading on the world's largest crypto exchange, Binance, massively opened short positions on BTC. According to analytical resources, as of the morning of January 17, 51% of the users of the trading platform had bitcoin shorts. This number then increased to 57%.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 22, 2023, 12:11:46 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 23 - 27, 2023


EUR/USD: The Calm Before the Storm

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The DXY Dollar Index (the ratio of the USD to a basket of six other major foreign currencies) has been moving in a fairly narrow sideways channel since January 12. A small surge in volatility was caused by the publication of data on retail sales in the US on Wednesday, January 18. However, everything returned to normal quickly, and DXY continued its eastward journey, sandwiched in the 102.00-102.50 range. EUR/USD behaved similarly, which, having started on Monday at 1.0833, completed the five-day period at 1.0855.

This behavior suggests that the market has already taken into account everything that is possible in quotes. This includes a slowdown in inflation, a possible recession, and prospects for changes in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy. A trigger is needed In order for a jump to occur, which, most likely, will be the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting on February 01 and the comments of the Fed management following it. Only US GDP data will be released until then as for important macro statistics. This indicator will be announced on February 26, and it is very likely to show a slowdown in the country's economic growth (the forecast is 2.6-2.8% against 3.2% a quarter earlier).

Market participants continue to wonder how much the interest rate will be raised at the February FOMC meeting. There are two options: either by 25 or 50 basis points (bp). Michelle Bowman, member of the Board of Governors, Mary Dehli, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of San Francisco, and Patrick Harker, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, spoke about 25 bp. Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard did not express a clear preference for either of these options on Thursday, January 19. She did not say what peak rate she expects to see in 2023 either. However, she said the regulator's policy should remain restrictive to ensure a return to the 2.0% inflation target.

Her words coincide with the opinion of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, who said a month ago that the regulator will keep rates at their peak until they are sure that the decline in inflation has become a sustainable trend. In his opinion, the base rate can be increased in 2023 to 5.1% and stay that high until 2024.

The market consensus forecast in December indicated the same value, 5.10%. However, the market has now stopped trusting the Federal Reserve, and expectations have fallen to 4.90%. And some analysts believe that the peak value of the rate will not rise above 4.75% at all. Moreover, it can even be lowered to 4.50% by the end of 2023. Given that the rate has already reached 4.50% at the moment, such a slight increase will clearly not benefit the dollar, but it will push up the competing currencies from the DXY basket and risky assets.

As for the common European currency, the swap market believes at the moment that with a probability close to 100%, the ECB rate will be increased by 50 bp on February 02, and the probability of the same rise in March is estimated at 70%.

Christine Lagarde, the head of the European regulator, speaking on Thursday, January 19 at the World Economic Forum in Davos (Switzerland), stressed that inflation remains too high, so the ECB will not relax its efforts to bring inflation under control. Ms Lagarde's colleague, ECB Governing Board member and Dutch Central Bank Governor Klaas Knot said on Thursday that the inflation situation remains unsatisfactory and that the market is wrong to expect only one 50bp rate hike in the future. There will be several such increases, according to Klaas Knot.

Such statements give euro bulls some hope. However, there are also those among European officials who take a more cautious position. Thus, Francois Villeroy, the head of the Bank of France, said in Davos that it is too early to talk about raising rates in March. And his words fell into rumors that the ECB is ready to move to 25 bps.

It is clear that the future of EUR/USD will be decided on February 01-02. In the meantime, 40% of analysts are counting on further strengthening of the euro, and the growth of the pair in the coming days. 50% expect that the US currency will be able to win back part of the losses. The remaining 10% of experts take a break in anticipation of the meetings of the Fed and the ECB. Among the indicators on D1, the picture is different: all 100% of the trend indicators are colored green. Among the oscillators, those are 65% of them, 20% signal that the pair is overbought, and the remaining 15% are painted in neutral gray. The nearest support for the pair is at 1.0800, then there are levels and zones 1.0740-1.0775, 1.0700, 1.0620-1.0680, 1.0560 and 1.0480-1.0500. The bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0865, 1.0935, 1.0985-1.1010, 1.1130, after which they will try to gain a foothold in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

China is celebrating the New Year next week, so we are happy to congratulate Chinese traders. As for the US and the Eurozone, the following events can be noted on the calendar. The ECB President Christine Lagarde will deliver a speech on Monday, January 23. Business activity indices (PMI and S&P Global) in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be published the next day. We will find out the value of the Business Climate Index (IFO) in Germany on Wednesday, January 25. As already mentioned, the value of the US GDP will become known on Thursday, in addition, a number of data from the consumer market and the labor market of this country will also come the same day. And the value of the Basic index of US household spending on personal consumption will be published at the very end of the working week, on Friday, January 27.

GBP/USD: Pound Counts on the Best

As in the US, retail sales in the UK also went down. They fell­ -1.0% (mom) in December, which is significantly lower than the forecast +0.5%. Analysts note that real spending in the country was significantly ahead of GDP in 2020-2022, but the rise in inflation led to a sharp halt in this process. And it is predicted that 2023 will be a period of retribution for this waste.

However, according to economists at HSBC, one of the world's largest financial conglomerates, things are not so bad. “With UK inflation likely to have peaked and could potentially slow more than the consensus forecast,” they write, “a less aggressive tone of tightening from the BoE now could mean a less dramatic reversal later in the year. And this may eventually become a minor positive factor for the British pound in the coming months. The shift towards better-than-expected domestic data should also be positive for the British pound." Economic performance is improving rapidly, experts say, thanks to a combination of a cheaper currency and higher interest rates. Suffice it to say that the UK trade balance for Q3 of last year showed the lowest deficit since December 2021. HSBC also believes that the growth of global market risk appetite will benefit the British currency as well.

In contrast to the EUR/USD flat trend, the British currency showed growth last week: GBP/USD approached the local December highs on January 18, reaching a height of 1.2435. Pound bulls are inspired by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE), in contrast to the fading activity of the Fed, on the contrary, will continue to vigorously tighten its monetary policy. It is predicted that from the current 3.50%, the rate may rise to 4.50 by summer. And an important day on this path may be February 02, when the next meeting of the BoE will take place.

The last chord of the week sounded at 1.2395. The median forecast for GBP/USD in the near future looks like this: 50% of experts believe that it is time for the pound to slow down its growth and are waiting for a correction to the south. Only 15% of experts side with the bulls, and 35% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 85% are colored green, 15% signal that the pair is overbought. Trend indicators have 100% on the green side. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2330, 1.2250-1.2270, 1.2200-1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2085-1.2115, 1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

Highlights for the UK economy in the coming week include Tuesday January 24, when a pool of UK business activity (PMI) data will be released.

USD/JPY: Yen Outlook Is Positive as Well

Despite the fact that the Bank of Japan left its key rate unchanged at a negative level of -0.1% at its meeting on January 18, the yen is still among the favorites among the DXY currencies. USD/JPY fixed a low at 127.21 on Monday. It hasn't dropped this low since last May. Recall that this happened against the backdrop of a fall in the dollar and a decrease in the yield of US bonds (the US/Japan spread is at the lows of August-September 2022).

However, the pair corrected to the north and finished at 129.57 at the end of the week. However, according to many experts, data on the acceleration of inflation in the country will still force the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to tighten its monetary policy.

In general, inflation in the country in December amounted to 4.0% (y/y), accelerating from 3.8% in November. These rates are the highest since January 1991. Consumer prices in Japan excluding fresh food (a key indicator monitored by the country's central bank) rose 4.0% last month compared to the same month of the previous year. And this is the highest rate since December 1981. The indicator has remained above the BoJ's 2% target for 9 consecutive months.

Markets expect serious changes in monetary policy after April 08. It is on this day that Haruhiko Kuroda, the head of the Bank of Japan, will end his term, and he may be replaced by a new candidate with a tougher position. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is likely to nominate this candidate in February. Kuroda will hold his last meeting on March 10, and the next BoJ meeting on April 28 will be held by the new head of the Central Bank.

Factors that could lead to further appreciation of the yen, in addition to a change in the BoJ, include improving Japan's balance of payments due to the devaluation of the yen and the resumption of tourism, as well as the revival of the safe-haven status of the yen and currency hedging by resident investors of their foreign investments. Economists at Danske Bank expect USD/JPY to fall towards 125.00 in the coming months. And according to the strategists of the international financial group Nordea, it may fall below 120.00 by the end of 2023.

Analysts' median forecast is also in line with Danske Bank and Nordea's forecasts. Their opinion on the near future of USD/JPY is distributed as follows: 75% of them vote for the pair to fall further. The remaining 25% have taken a neutral position. Not a single vote was given for the pair's growth this time. Among the oscillators on D1, 10% point north, 75% look south, and 15% point east. For trend indicators, 15% look north, 85% look in the opposite direction. The nearest support level is located at 129.30 zone, followed by levels and zones 128.90, 127.75-128.00, 127.00-127.25, 126.35-126.55, 125.00, 121.65-121.85. Levels and resistance zones are 130.45, 131.25, 132.00, 132.80, 133.60, 134.40 and then 137.50.

Among the events of the coming week, the report on the Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan, which will be published on Monday, January 23, is of interest.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Victory Over Artificial Intelligence

If you look at last week's chart, you can clearly see that the explosive growth of bullish optimism has almost come to naught. Recall that bitcoin received a powerful boost from January 09 to January 14 amid the publication of data on lower US inflation (CPI). Another contribution to the bulls' piggy bank was the news that FTX liquidators found liquid assets worth $5 billion. According to a number of bitcoin enthusiasts, this should allow crypto markets not to worry too much about the macroeconomic picture, which is still bearish.

But most likely, the last statement is wrong, and we should still worry. The growth of digital assets has been the result of an increase in the general global appetite of investors for risky assets. This can be seen if we compare the quotes of BTC/USD and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq. And while bitcoin has become the main beneficiary in this case, it was due of its increased volatility. And as we have repeatedly noted, the main factor determining the dynamics of both the stock and crypto markets in this situation is the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, including the change in the dollar interest rate.

Bitcoin has risen in price by more than 37% from January 01 to 18 2023, reaching a high of $22,715. The total market capitalization has exceeded $1 trillion for the first time in a long time. The enthusiasm of market participants has led to an increase in BTC trading volume twice in a week: the figure rose to $11 billion in the spot market. But, according to analyst Craig Erlam, there are no specific fundamental reasons for the further development of the bullish trend now.

Market growth in the first half of January came as a surprise to the bears. According to the statistics, they have lost about $1.2 billion in the last week alone. And this is only in BTC. The volume of liquidated short positions exceeded long positions by six times at some points. But all this happened at the expense of small and medium-sized investors. The number of bitcoin addresses that hold up to 1,000 BTC has increased dramatically. But institutional whales (more than 1000 BTC) practically did not react to what was happening and watched the bustle of shrimp with their characteristic grandeur and calmness. Suffice it to say that the inflow into bitcoin funds has been only about $10 million since January 10, and the number of wallets owned by whales continues to fall.

We have already written that many institutional investors are deterred from the crypto market by the lack of sufficient regulation. And now the US Congress has even created a new special subcommittee to solve this problem. However, Kevin O'Leary, CEO of venture capital firm O'Leary and host of the Shark Tank TV show, believes that adopting a strong regulatory framework will not solve the industry's problems or change the scale of fraud. The expert believes that even more crypto companies and exchanges will collapse this year. The reason for this, in his opinion, is people's ignorance.

Now let's talk about forecasts expressed in numbers. Ben Armstrong, a popular cryptocurrency YouTuber, believes that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency will jump to $30,000 by the end of February. And this will happen despite the fact that miners have been actively selling their assets lately in order to fix profits.

Legendary stock trader and analyst Peter Brandt, who, among other things, predicted the 2018 BTC correction accurately, also gave a fresh forecast for bitcoin’s movement. According to the specialist, BTC will be able to realize growth to levels near $25,000 in the near future. After that, a correction is not ruled out by the end of spring, that will give the cryptocurrency strength for a new rally. As a result, the coin will reach its previous highs near $68,000 in the second half of 2023. After that, another correction and a subsequent update of the absolute high are possible. In the longer term, Peter Brandt does not rule out bitcoin rising to $150,000 by early 2025. However, he warns that this is nothing more than his guess. Nobody knows how the main cryptocurrency will actually behave, according to the eminent trader.

The value of bitcoin could increase to $50,000-100,000 over the next two to three years. This opinion was expressed in an interview with CNBC by the founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital Anthony Scaramucci. The businessman called 2023 a “recovery year” for the main cryptocurrency. Of course, the decisions of the US Federal Reserve will influence the digital gold rate. And if the financial regulator takes measures to stimulate the economy in the middle of the year, this will be a good impetus for the rise in the bitcoin price. Will it take the measures?

Bloomberg Intelligence senior strategist Mike McGlone agrees that the bottom in the cryptocurrency market has already been passed. But his opinion on the Fed's monetary policy is very different. McGlone has noted that the charts are reminiscent of the 2018 dynamics, when the price of the first cryptocurrency rebounded from $5,000. However, the macroeconomic situation is now completely different, which is why the bitcoin growth may stop at current values. Thus, the NASDAQ index may continue to fall, and the correlation between bitcoin and the stock market has been quite significant in recent years. “We are still pulling liquidity from global markets, and there are reasons for this. And even if equities and other risky assets rise, liquidity will remain limited by central banks. The big difference from 2018 is that the Fed had already begun to ease its policy then, and we do not see any easing today,” the Bloomberg strategist explained.

“Look at the NASDAQ, the chart breaks through the 200-week SMA. This has only happened 3 times in history, and the Fed has always eased its monetary policy. But the US Central Bank is tightening it now. The overall picture is optimistic for bitcoin, but the situation is unprecedented now, so anything can happen,” McGlone said.

Peter Brand admitted Above that it is almost impossible to accurately predict the behavior of bitcoin. The artificial intelligence (AI) of the ChatGPT test platform supported him in this opinion. This platform has become popular due to its ability to solve a wide range of tasks with high accuracy, including asset trading.

Experts from Finbold asked the artificial intelligence what the bitcoin price will be in 2030. Finbold suggested that ChatGPT would be able to provide a fairly accurate forecast based on historical BTC price data, market data, technical and fundamental analysis, and other indicators. But the AI didn't live up to expectations. It was never able to predict the exact rate and admitted that it is hard to name the price of the coin in the long term. The AI cited high market volatility and unclear regulatory rules as the reasons. However, the AI, like Peter Brandt, believes that the flagship cryptocurrency has potential for growth in the coming years. This will be possible due to the development of technology, the maturation of the cryptocurrency market and their mass distribution.

The future of the digital market is indeed vague. However, we can tell exactly what is happening in the present. So, at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, January 20), BTC/USD is trading in the $22,700 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.038 trillion ($0.968 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has left the Fear Zone and is now in a Neutral state at 51 points (46 a week ago).


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 25, 2023, 03:49:06 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/0jr3VC8.jpg)

- Jamie Dimon, the head of JPMorgan said on CNBC that he was not sure that the bitcoin issuance is really limited to 21 million coins. "How do you know? Maybe it will go up to 21 million, and Satoshi's photo will pop up and laugh at all of you,” he suggested. The top manager already publicly expressed skepticism in October 2022 regarding the code embedded in the algorithm of the first cryptocurrency. “Have you all read the algorithms? Guys, do you believe in all this?” Damon grinned at the time.
Given the programmed halvings, reaching the bar of 21 million should occur by 2141. At the same time, experts say that the limit on bitcoin emissions is provided by only five lines of the code. It is open for study, and anyone can verify this.

- According to Cathy Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, the cryptocurrency market will enter a new phase in 2023. The growth of bitcoin and other virtual currencies will be the result of the US Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy in the second half of this year. It is this move that will become a trigger for investors testing stock markets and digital currencies. Earlier, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone expressed a similar point of view, pointing to the possibility of BTC rising to $30,000.

- Adam Farthing, Chief Risk Officer at crypto company B2C2, noted that the first cryptocurrency needs to overcome the key level at around $25,000 in order to continue the rally. “It will be a tough nut to crack,” the expert shared his opinion. According to him, after passing the designated milestone, interest will resume from outsiders who want to return to the market.
Analysts at the brokerage company Bernstein are convinced that such a rally is unlikely to continue at the moment, as there are no signs of “any new injections” into the industry. However, in their opinion, institutional capital will still begin to show more interest in cryptocurrency this year, as it becomes an increasingly regulated asset class.

- Brian Armstrong, head of crypto exchange Coinbase, called bitcoin “the right long-term bet” for Brazil and Argentina. According to the Financial Times, the two countries intend to create a single currency to reduce dependence on the US dollar and stimulate regional trade. The Argentine Minister of Economy spoke about plans to offer participation in the bloc to other Latin American countries. The FT estimates that the new union will cover approximately 5% of global GDP and will be the second largest in the world after the EU (14%). “I wonder if they would consider switching to bitcoin. That would probably be the right long-term bet,” Armstrong said.
Former Goldman Sachs executive and macro investor Raoul Pal criticized Armstrong's idea because of the volatility of the first cryptocurrency. “No one can currently afford a national currency with 100% volatility, which falls by 65% and rises tenfold. Businesses are fighting to plan and hedge this,” he wrote.

- The Binance exchange press service said that an unknown artist under the nickname Sabunir tried to sell his digital image for bitcoins for the first time in the world. This happened 13 years ago, on January 24, 2010. The picture was a desktop wallpaper for a personal computer and was designed in a resolution of 1280x960 pixels. Sabunir tweeted at the time that he wanted to try to earn some bitcoins. He priced his picture at $1 and stressed that he plans to get 500 BTC for it. It is not known whether this deal took place, but if it did, Sabunir would now be a wealthy man, as these coins are worth more than $11 million.

- Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist & broker at DeCarley Trading, recommended staying away from virtual currencies and choosing gold instead as a hedge against rising inflation and economic chaos. Garner studied the daily chart of BTC and Nasdaq 100 futures since March 2021 carefully, and noted that the picture was almost identical, and the price movements were in sync. According to her, this indicated that bitcoin is more of a risky asset than a means of saving capital.
Garner's opinion was referred to by Jim Cramer of CNBC. “Mad Money” TV presenter also highlighted the risks associated with the flagship cryptocurrency in light of the collapse of the FTX marketplace. He noted that a similar situation could happen at any time with any other large crypto company. In his opinion, no one knows what the big players in the industry are really hiding. And there are no guarantees that they are actually honest with their customers. Any new scandal will cause a sharp drop in bitcoin quotes, which means that investors' assets are at risk.

- The first nuclear-powered bitcoin mining center will open in Pennsylvania (USA). Cumulus Data has completed construction of the country's first zero-carbon data center. The new data center will have a capacity of more than 40 MW, achieved through a direct connection to the Susquehanna nuclear power plant in northeast Pennsylvania. In addition to server equipment for cloud computing, the data center will house equipment for mining the main cryptocurrency.
Cumulus Susquehanna is the first in Cumulus Data's future network of 18 combined data centers with a combined capacity of more than 470 MW. They will be used to deploy the first Nautilus Cryptomine mining complex in the United States, which operates exclusively on nuclear energy and produces “carbon-free crypto assets”.

- “Buying bitcoin at the end of the first day of the Chinese New Year and selling it ten trading days later guarantees an average profit of more than 9%,” Markus Thielen, director of research and strategy at Matrixport, found out. The scheme has been profitable in 100% of cases for the last eight years, from 2015 to 2022. Such an operation would bring the greatest profit in 2017: 15%. Even in 2018, against the backdrop of the previous crypto winter, the investor received income, although only 1%.
To implement the scheme In 2023, it was necessary to buy digital gold on January 22, and sell the assets 10 days later, on February 1. Bitcoin was trading near the $22,900 mark on the day of the proposed purchase, January 22. Thielen believes its price should approach $25,000 by the beginning of February.
We will soon find out whether the phenomenon will be justified this time. And if anyone decides to follow Thielen's recommendations in the future, we would like to inform you that the next Chinese New Year begins on Saturday, February 10, 2024.

- Nicholas Merten, a cryptocurrency analyst and creator of the DataDash channel, noted that cryptocurrencies have a bright future, but many people underestimate the global situation. The damage done by FTX, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Terraform Labs has left an indelible mark on the industry. In addition, the macroeconomic component should also be taken into account, since many countries are struggling with rapid inflation, and supply chains have not fully recovered after the coronavirus pandemic. According to the expert, investors need to understand that the long-term bullish trend is over. Unfortunately, the digital asset industry needs to prepare for new challenges, and the current bullish trend in the market is only a local correction within the overall bearish trend.

- Thanks to the recent bullish rally, the capitalization of the flagship cryptocurrency has exceeded $443 billion, and has surpassed all key traditional financial institutions, including global world banks, in this indicator. For example, the capitalization of the American banking giant JPMorgan Chase is $406.42 billion, while Bank of America has a capitalization of $277.56 billion. In addition, BTC is ahead of companies such as Alibaba ($317.01 billion), Samsung ($335.37 billion), Mastercard ($365.09 billion) and Walmart ($385.15 billion). However, it has slightly lost to Tesla ($454.72 billion).
According to CompaniesMarketCap, bitcoin is the 16th most valuable asset in the world. The leaders of the rating are gold ($12.77 trillion), Apple ($2.25 trillion) and Saudi Aramco ($1.94 trillion).


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 29, 2023, 08:51:51 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for January 30 - February 03, 2023


EUR/USD: Next week: Five Days of Storms and Tsunamis

(https://i.imgur.com/ivFwSFz.jpg)

It seems that the whole world celebrated the Chinese New Year last week. There was some volatility in all major currency pairs of course, but we got an almost perfect sideways trend in the end. We will not deny the importance of the New Year holidays, but the reason for the lull, of course, is not in this, but in the key events that are coming next week.

On February 1, when it will be late at night in Europe and dawn in Asia, the US Federal Reserve will announce its key interest rate decision, and the regulator's management will tell (or at least give a hint) about its future monetary policy. The European Central Bank will make its decision on the rate a few hours later, on Thursday, February 02.

But, before giving forecasts, let's turn to the events of the past five days. Data released on Thursday, January 26 showed that the US economy is doing better than expected. The country's GDP, according to preliminary estimates, grew by 2.9% y/y in Q4 against the forecast of 2.6%. At the same time, initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week to January 21 fell to 186K (forecast 205K, the previous value of 192K). This is the lowest weekly figure since April 2022. Underlying durable goods orders also beat estimates, dropping by -0.1% instead of the expected -0.2%. New home sales are also doing well, with sales up to 616K in December from 602K in November.

Looking at these figures, we can conclude that not everything is so bad and there is no recession in the United States. And that the Fed's 2022 aggressive monetary policy (QT) has not had a suffocating effect on the economy. Therefore, it is possible to move on to its easing (QE). However, some economists point out that consumer demand is losing its momentum (2.1% in Q4 against the forecast of 2.9% and 2.3% a quarter earlier). Based on this, they conclude that the chances of a mild recession remain.

For now, the market believes the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its February meeting. It is currently 4.50%, and the market consensus indicates its peak value at the level of 4.90-5.00% in 2023. The probability that the rate will be raised by another 25 bp in March is estimated at 85%. Although some analysts believe that the peak value will stop at around 4.75%. Moreover, the rate may even be lowered to 4.25-4.50% by the end of 2023. Such dynamics will obviously not benefit the dollar, but it will push up the competing currencies from the DXY basket and risky assets.

As for the common European currency, the market is sure that the ECB will raise the rate by 50 bp on February 02. But, according to analysts, the difference in the rises in USD and EUR rates has already been taken into account by the market in the pair's quotes, which is why it keeps in the range of 1.0845-1.0925. And its foreseeable future will depend on the comments and signals that the leaders of the Fed and the ECB will give at the end of their meetings.

Starting at 1.0855 on Monday, January 23, the pair ended last week at 1.0875. At the time of writing the forecast (Friday evening, January 27), the votes of supporters of bulls and bears are divided almost equally. 50% of analysts expect further strengthening of the euro and the growth of the pair. 45% expect that the US currency will be able to win back part of the losses. The remaining 5% of experts, in anticipation of the meetings of the Central Banks, prefer not to make forecasts at all. Among the indicators on D1, the picture is different: 90% of the oscillators are colored green, 5% indicate that the pair is overbought, and 5% are colored gray neutral. Among trend indicators, 80% recommend buying, 20% recommend selling. The nearest support for the pair is in the zone 1.0835-1.0845, then there are levels and zones 1.0800, 1.0740-1.0775, 1.0700-1.0710, 1.0620-1.0680, 1.0560 and 1.0480-1.0500. The bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0895-1.0935, 1.0985-1.1010, 1.1130, after which they will try to gain a foothold in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

The coming week will undoubtedly be stormy and filled with events. In addition to these Fed and ECB meetings, it should be noted that data on GDP were published on January 30, on the unemployment rate and inflation rate (CPI) on January 31, and on business activity (PMI) in the German manufacturing sector on February 01. We will find out what is the situation with consumer prices ( CPI ) in the Eurozone and what is happening with business activity (PMI) in the USA also on Wednesday, February 01. In addition, we are traditionally waiting for an impressive portion of statistics from the US labor market on February 01, 02 and 03, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: The Future of the Pound Is in a Thick Fog

The Bank of England (BoE) will also make its decision on the interest rate on Thursday, February 02. And if the probability that the Fed and the ECB will raise their rates is close to 100%, everything is not so simple with the pound. According to some analysts, the BoE may surprise the markets by pausing and slowing down the tightening of its monetary policy.

Although there may not be a pause, we will see a new round of QT instead of QE. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt said on Friday, February 27 that “the weak recovery in the public sector after the pandemic reinforces the need for reforms” and that “the best tax cut right now is lower inflation.” And the best (if not the only) cure for inflation, as the experience of overseas colleagues shows, is to raise interest rates.

Pound bulls hope that the Bank of England will raise the pound rate by 50 bp, and it will rise to at least 4.50% from the current 3.50% by the summer. As for the bears, they believe that the threat of an economic downturn and recession will prevent the Central Bank from raising it by more than 25 bps now, and it will do so for the last time, and then be forced to ease monetary policy despite high inflation.

In general, the future is shrouded in fog. But the fact that the country's economy has big problems is very clear. This is evidenced by the fall in the Composite Business Activity Index (PMI) from 49.0 to 47.8 points, instead of the expected increase to 49.3.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has recently said that the British economy after Brexit has faced a shortage of more than 300,000 workers due to the cessation of the free movement of labor from the EU. Such a deficit has become an obstacle to the fight against inflation, as it entails an increase in wages. In addition, the country's economy continues to be pressured by high energy prices and supply disruptions, as well as other problems related to sanctions against Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

The quotes of GBP/USD have not changed much over the past five days: starting from 1.2395, it set the final chord there. The median forecast for the near future also looks vague: 35% of experts believe that it is time for the pair to turn south, just as many point to the north, and the remaining 30% look east. Among the oscillators on D1, 85% are colored green, 15% signal that the pair is overbought. Trend indicators are 100% on the green side. Support levels and zones for the pair are1.2360, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2250-1.2270, 1.2200-1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2085-1.2115, 1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

Among the events related to the economy of the United Kingdom in the coming week, apart from the meeting of the Bank of England, one can note February 01 and 03, when fresh January data on business activity (PMI) in the country will be published.

USD/JPY: The Future of the Pair Depends on the Fed

Unlike its counterparts, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left its key rate unchanged at a negative level of -0.1% at its meeting on January 18. The next meeting is not soon, on March 10. The current head of BoJ chapter Haruhiko Kuroda will preside over it for the last time. His powers will end on April 08, and the meeting of the BoJ on April 28 will be held by the new head of the Central Bank. It is with this event that markets associate a possible change in monetary policy in the country. In the meantime, the views of market participants are focused on the US Federal Reserve.

As with the previous pairs, USD/JPY was not much active last week, starting at 129.57 and finishing at 129.85. Analysts' forecasts do not give any guidance until the next Fed meeting: 50% of them side with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 10% have decided not to make predictions at all. Among the oscillators on D1, 10% point north, 35% look south, and 55% point east. For trend indicators, 15% look north, 85% look in the opposite direction. The nearest support level is located at 129.50 zone, followed by levels and zones 128.90-129.00, 127.75-128.10, 127.00-127.25, 126.35-126.55, 125.00, 121.65-121.85. Levels and resistance zones are 130.50, 131.25, 132.00, 132.80, 133.60, 134.40 and then 137.50.

No important events regarding the Japanese economy are expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: New Trading Strategy: Chinese New Year

Bitcoin behaves even more calmly than the S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq stock indices on the eve of the Fed meeting on February 01. Of course, a certain correlation between them remains, but the volatility of the main cryptocurrency has become noticeably less. Although, it is quite possible that this is just the calm before the storm. Which, as usual, will be arranged by the American regulator with its monetary policy and the key rate for USD.

According to Ark Invest CEO Cathy Wood, the cryptocurrency market will enter a new phase in 2023. The rise in bitcoin and other virtual currencies will be the result of the Fed's monetary easing in the second half of this year. It is this move that will become a trigger for investors testing stock markets and digital currencies. (Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone expressed a similar point of view earlier, pointing out the possibility of BTC rising to $30,000).

Adam Farthing, Chief Risk Officer at crypto company B2C2, noted that the first cryptocurrency needs to overcome the key level at around $25,000 in order to continue the rally. “It will be a tough nut to crack,” the expert shared his opinion. According to him, after passing the designated milestone, interest will resume from outsiders who want to return to the market.

However, analysts at the brokerage company Bernstein are convinced that such a rally is unlikely to continue at the moment, as there are no signs of “any new injections” into the industry. However, in their opinion, institutional capital will still begin to show more interest in cryptocurrency this year, as it becomes an increasingly regulated asset class. (We have also repeatedly raised the topic of regulation and its conflict with the main idea of cryptocurrencies in our reviews).

And DataDash analyst and channel creator Nicholas Merten also believes that while cryptocurrencies have a bright future, many underestimate the current global environment. In his opinion, the damage caused by FTX, Celsius, Three Arrows Capital and Terraform Labs has left an indelible mark on the industry. In addition, it is necessary to take into account the macroeconomic component, since many countries are struggling with rapid inflation, and supply chains have not fully recovered after the coronavirus pandemic. According to the expert, investors need to understand that the long-term bullish trend is over. Unfortunately, the digital asset industry needs to prepare for new challenges, and the current bullish trend in the market is only a local correction within the overall bearish trend.

Jim Cramer of CNBC agrees with Nicholas Merten. The “Mad Money” TV presenter has also focused on the risks in light of the FTX crash. He noted that a similar situation could happen at any time with any other large crypto company. In his opinion, no one knows what the big players in the industry are really hiding. And there are no guarantees that they are actually honest with their customers. Any new scandal, according to him, will cause a sharp drop in bitcoin quotes, which means that investors' assets are at risk. Citing Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist & broker at DeCarley Trading, he recommended staying away from virtual currencies and opting for physical gold instead as a hedge against rising inflation and economic chaos.

Such an authority as Jamie Dimon, the head of the American banking giant JPMorgan, has also gone with a heavy roller on digital gold. He doubted on the air of CNBC that the supply of bitcoin is really limited to 21 million coins. "How do you know? Maybe it will go up to 21 million, and Satoshi's photo will pop up and laugh at all of you,” he suggested. This top manager already publicly expressed skepticism in October 2022 regarding the code embedded in the algorithm of the first cryptocurrency. “Have you all read the algorithms? Guys, do you believe in all this? ”Dimon grinned at the time.

For your information. Given the programmed halvings, the bar of 21 million should be reached by 2141. At the same time, experts say that the limit on bitcoin emissions is provided by only five lines of the code. It is open for study, and anyone can verify this.

And here the question arises: what if Jamie Dimon's rCorporate debt on bitcoin are connected with the desire to eliminate this successful competitor? After all, thanks to the recent bullish rally, the capitalization of the flagship cryptocurrency has exceeded $443 billion, and has surpassed all key traditional financial institutions, including global world banks, in this indicator. For example, the capitalization of the American banking giant JPMorgan Chase is $406.42 billion, while Bank of America has a capitalization of $277.56 billion. In addition, BTC is ahead of companies such as Alibaba ($317.01 billion), Samsung ($335.37 billion), Mastercard ($365.09 billion) and Walmart ($385.15 billion). However, it has slightly lost to Tesla ($454.72 billion).

According to CompaniesMarketCap, bitcoin is the 16th most valuable asset in the world. The leaders of the rating are gold ($12.77 trillion), Apple ($2.25 trillion) and Saudi Aramco ($1.94 trillion).

At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, January 27th), BTC/USD is trading in the $23,070 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.060 trillion ($1.038 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has grown from 51 to 55 points over the week and has moved from the Neutral zone to the Greed zone, where, according to the creators of the index, it is already dangerous to open short positions.

And at the end of the review, our half-forgotten half-joking column of crypto life hacks. This time we will talk about one interesting observation. Of course, if you decide to adopt it, the whole responsibility will fall on you. But if you can earn money thanks to it, be sure to tell us about it. And don't forget to say thank you.

So, it turns out that buying bitcoin at the end of the first day of the Chinese New Year and selling it after ten trading days guarantees an average profit of more than 9%. This was found out by Matrixport Research and Strategy Director Markus Thielen. According to his observations, the scheme has generated income in 100% of cases for the last eight years, from 2015 to 2022. Such an operation would bring the greatest profit in 2017: 15%. Even in 2018, against the backdrop of the previous crypto winter, the investor received income, although only 1%.

To implement the scheme In 2023, it was necessary to buy digital gold on January 22, and sell the assets 10 days later, on February 1. Bitcoin was trading near the $22,900 mark on the day of the proposed purchase. Thielen believes its price should approach $25,000 by the beginning of February. We will soon find out whether the phenomenon will be justified this time. And if anyone decides to follow Thielen's recommendations in the future, we would like to inform you that the next Chinese New Year begins on Saturday, February 10, 2024.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 01, 2023, 03:06:05 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/Ll0y7SD.jpg)

- Bitcoin has had its best start to the year since January 2013. The rate rose by 51% then, the growth was 40% last month. It happened against the backdrop of the weakness of the US dollar. “At the same time, 85% of the contribution to the rally is associated with investors from the United States,” says Markus Thielen, head of research at crypto services provider Matrixport. The bullish stance of US companies is also confirmed by the renewed premium in bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “We interpret this as a sign that faster institutional traders and hedge funds are actively buying back the recent fall in the cryptocurrency markets,” Thielen said.
Deutsche Digital Assets made a similar observation earlier, on January 20, drawing attention to the increase in Coinbase's premium as evidence of increased buying interest from sophisticated US investors. An institutional-led bullish reversal in bitcoin could be a good sign for the US stock market, given that the cryptocurrency bottomed a few weeks before the S&P 500.

- Binance Bitcoin Exchange reported that user interest in digital assets remains high. According to the survey, more than 88% of Binance customers plan to continue investing in cryptocurrencies, and only 3.3% do not consider this possibility. Bitcoin is still the dominant asset, owned by 21.7% of those surveyed. The top three also include Tether (17.8%) and BUSD (10.3%).
Over 40% of respondents bought digital assets last year for investment purposes. Other motives were the decline in the value of bitcoin and the general bearish trend. Almost 8% cited the geopolitical situation in the world as a reason for the purchase, and 11.5% expressed distrust of the traditional financial system. 40.8% do not use traditional investment opportunities (buying shares, investing in real estate, mutual funds), while 32.4% do use them. At the same time, 79.7% are sure that cryptocurrencies are necessary for the development of the global economy, and 59.4% of respondents believe that deposits in cryptocurrencies will be able to replace bank deposits over time.
According to statistics, the total number of digital wallets with a balance of $1,000 or more in bitcoin or ethereum has increased by 27% in 2022.

- Despite the fact that 2022 was a challenging year for the crypto industry, 82% of millionaires considered investing in digital assets like bitcoin. This follows from a survey conducted by financial consulting company deVere Group. The results of the survey, published on January 30, show that 8 out of 10 surveyed clients of the company, with assets to invest from $1.2 to $6.1 million, turned to financial advisers for cryptocurrency advice.
Nigel Green, CEO and Founder of the deVere Group, believes that while the group surveyed is “generally more conservative,” its interest stems from the core values of bitcoin: “digital, global, borderless, decentralized, and secure from unauthorized access". Green also notes a growing interest in crypto services from older financial institutions such as Fidelity, BlackRock and JPMorgan, and considers this a good sign for the industry. He predicts that the momentum of interest will build as the “crypto winter” of 2022 thaws due to changing conditions in the traditional financial system.
For the record: A June 2022 report by Pricewaterhouse-Coopers found that roughly a third of 89 traditional hedge funds surveyed had already invested in digital assets like bitcoin.

- The Fear and Greed Index, a metric showing the community's general attitude towards bitcoin, entered the “Greed” zone for the first time since March 30, 2022. This is due to the increase in the bitcoin rate in the first month of the year and the general revival of the entire market. It is worth noting, however, that the increased confidence among crypto investors should not be directly viewed as a catalyst for the resumption of bullish growth in the bitcoin price. In fact, a Fear or Extreme Fear metric could indicate a good buying opportunity, and too high a Greed reading could mean the market is headed for a downward correction.

- Tron founder Justin Sun said that the legalization of cryptocurrency will not only make it easier to buy and sell goods and services but will also give the public more control over their financial future. “Cryptocurrency can become a powerful tool for financial inclusion and improving the lives of people in all corners of the world. […] Let's work together to create a more inclusive and equal future for all,” wrote Justin Sun.
For the record: TRON is a decentralized entertainment content platform based on blockchain and using the TRX token. The platform also offers tools that allow developers to build and launch their own dApps.

- Jordan Belfort, a former stockbroker widely known as “The Wolf of Wall Street”, also believes that regulation of the digital asset segment may be a bullish catalyst for bitcoin in the future. According to the entrepreneur, the flagship cryptocurrency will only benefit from this. He also emphasized that if world governments continue to print money uncontrollably, more and more users will see bitcoin as a reliable tool to protect against inflation.

- The price of bitcoin on Nigeria's popular NairaEx exchange jumped in terms of local currency to almost $40,000, which is about 70% higher than the global market. The discrepancy is due to the limit imposed by the country's Central Bank on withdrawing funds from ATMs. The regulator took this step in order to reduce the share of cash in cash turnover.

- Arizona Senate Member Wendy Rogers has once again proposed approving bitcoin as legal tender in the state. In a tweet, Rogers quoted Goldman Sachs data that the first cryptocurrency is “the world's most profitable asset this year.” If the law is passed, the cryptocurrency will receive the same status as the US dollar.

- Billionaire founder of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd Mike Novogratz, having endured a challenging 2022, is now determined to increase investment in bitcoin mining. His focus is Texas, where Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd is buying the Helios mining operation from Argo Blockchain for $65 million.
There are currently almost 30 mining companies in Texas. In total, they have already created about 2,000 new jobs directly, and indirectly, about 20,000 more. The Governor's Blockchain Working Group believes that Texas, which leads in oil production, is able to maintain leadership in the US in bitcoin mining as well.

- According to Matrixport experts, the flagship cryptocurrency rate may reach $45,000 by Christmas 2023. Researchers released a report in which they shared a historical observation: when January's bitcoin quotes on the chart were in the “green” zone, the price rally usually continued in the following months of the year.

- A popular analyst Plan B has outlined a scenario that, in his opinion, could raise the bitcoin price to $1 million by 2025. As for this year, he predicts the price will rise above $100,000. The analyst also said that the January bitcoin pump confirms that the asset's 4-year cyclical price bottom is over.
Plan B is known for the "Stock-to-Flow" model, which attempts to model the price of bitcoin based on its scarcity. His concept involves a parabolic jump in the price of an asset every 4 years due to halving. That being said, the analyst was heavily criticized in 2022 due to an unfortunate prediction that BTC would rise well above $100,000 at the end of 2021. After that, he adjusted his model based on 18-month statistics, as a result of which a smoother growth of the main cryptocurrency was incorporated into it.

- Cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen said that bitcoin has a “long year” to look forward to. According to the expert, it may appear that BTC has significant strength, while in fact the asset is likely to be in the process of forming a wide sideways range as a base. Cowen explained that sideways movement is not always an indicator of the growth of the first cryptocurrency and may also signal a fall in quotes.
The analyst reminded traders that a bearish cycle is usually followed by a year of sideways movement. Thus, there were three upward impulses in 2015, and only the last one turned into a real rally. There were also periods of growth in quotes in 2019, then their active fall followed, and a cycle that brought the crypto market to new highs started only after that.
The analyst noted that 2023 can be seen as a year of accumulation and that investors can take advantage of this period to increase their holdings of BTC. In addition, Cowan believes that the US Federal Reserve should ease monetary policy in order to increase cryptocurrency prices.

- Peter Brand, a well-known cryptocurrency trader, has a bearish forecast for the near future, as BTC has not been able to gain a foothold above $23,500 for a long time and is in consolidation. As the expert noted, many traders and investors are now waiting for a certain pullback in order to enter the market at better prices. The specialist believes that the flagship of the crypto market may reach the level of $25,000 in the near future, after which there will be a correction closer to $19,000. Brand remains optimistic from a medium-term perspective, predicting bitcoin to rise to $65,000 in the middle of this year.

- This release of CryptoNews was prepared a few hours before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, following which the decision on the key rate will be announced. If the rate, according to forecasts, increases by 0.25%, and at the same time the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, clearly hints at the dovish attitude of the regulator, this will most likely weaken the dollar and push the quotes of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, up. On the other hand, if, contrary to the expectations of investors, the refinancing rate rises by 0.50%, a wave of panic sales in the crypto market cannot be ruled out. You can find out what will actually happen in NordFX's regular analytical review, which, as usual, will be published at the end of the week.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 02, 2023, 11:10:47 AM
Gold and Yen Became Most Profitable Instruments for NordFX Top Traders in January

(https://i.imgur.com/VBfoQeI.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in January 2023. The services of social trading, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The best result among traders was shown in January by a client from West Asia (account #1644XXX), whose profit amounted to 71,280 USD and was received mainly due to transactions with gold (XAU/USD) and Japanese yen (USD/JPY).
- The second place in the top three NordFX top performing clients belongs to the holder of account No.1543XXX from East Asia, who earned 19,983 USD. In addition to gold (XAU/USD) and yen (USD/JPY), this trader's arsenal has been supplemented with such an exotic pair as USD/ZAR (American dollar/South African rand),
- Finally, another representative of the West Asian region (account No. 1672XXX) took the third place on the January podium with a profit of 17,059 USD, whose trading instruments, in addition to gold (XAU/USD) and the Japanese yen (USD/JPY), also included the European currency (EUR/USD).

The passive investment services:

- In CopyTrading, the "veteran" signal - KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K continues to increase profits. It increased its profit to 307% in 637 days. But given the relative stability, it should be borne in mind that this supplier's trade failed seriously last November, when the maximum drawdown on this signal was close to 67%. Bull trader is another interesting signal. True, it is much Newbie traderer, it is only 183 days old. It has increased the deposit by 183% during this time, since July 25, 2022, while the maximum drawdown has not exceeded 23%.

Fans of algorithmic trading can look out for a startup called ATFOREXACADEMY ALGO 1. This signal has shown a profitability of 93% in just 41 days, although its drawdown was not small, 38%. Here, as usual, it is appropriate to recall that, in addition to a short life span, aggressive trading is a serious risk factor, which carries increased risks. Therefore, we urge you to be extremely cautious when working on financial markets.

- However, as practice shows, a long lifespan and good trading performance in the past do not guarantee against future losses. Thus, two leading accounts in the PAMM service suffered significant losses last November.

The KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA account has existed since January 2021, and the maximum drawdown on it did not exceed 20% for a long time. However, the situation became more complicated in mid-November 2022, the drawdown exceeded 42%, and the account manager decided to close unprofitable positions. As a result, profits fell from 170% to 70%. The TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 account found itself in a similar situation: its maximum drawdown doubled as well, while profits fell from 130% to 44%. It should be noted to the credit of both managers that they did not allow a complete zeroing of deposits, and now they are moving forward again, although very cautiously. The yield on the first signal rose to 80% by January 31, 2023, and to 50% on the second one.

Among the NordFX IB partners, December TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 8,141 USD, was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1618ХXХ;
- the next is their colleague from Southeast Asia (account No. 1656XXX), who received 6,196 USD during the month;
- and, finally, their colleague from Western Asia (account No. 1645XXX) closes the top three, earning 4,526 USD in commissions in January.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 05, 2023, 09:21:40 AM
NordFX Was Recognized Not Only as Most Reliable Forex Broker, But Also as Best CFD Broker Asia in 2022

(https://i.imgur.com/xeFzNUR.jpg)

According to Forex-Awards expert council, NordFX won a convincing victory in the Best CFD Broker Asia 2022 nomination.

The past year was very fruitful for NordFX, as a result of which the company was awarded several prestigious professional awards recognizing its achievements both in specific regions and its success in general. THE BIZZ Business Excellence Award from the World Confederation of Businesses, Best Execution Broker LATAM from International Business Magazine Awards, Best Crypto Broker from AllForexRating Awards, Most Reliable Forex Broker Asia from Finance Derivative Awards, Best Broker Middle East from Forexing Awards were added to NordFX titles in 2022. NordFX is now also named Best CFD Broker Asia by Forex-Awards.

This honorary title was awarded to the company by the Forex-Awards Expert Council based on the opinions of both independent experts and the trading community. A unique team of expert professionals headquartered in Hong Kong honor the most remarkable solution and innovation in almost 30 nominations since 2010, reward market participants featuring breakthrough initiatives and excellent results in the Forex industry.

The Forex-Awards Expert Council has previously noted the merits of NordFX. This time, the Best CFD Broker Asia award is due to the company's achievements in online CFD trading, including an impressive range of trading instruments, instant order execution, as well as the lowest spreads and commissions, which have allowed clients from the Asian region to achieve outstanding success. Suffice it to say that the total earnings of traders from the TOP-3 NordFX in 2022 amounted to almost $1,500,000, and most of these traders are from Asia.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 05, 2023, 10:18:26 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 06 - 10, 2023


EUR/USD: Three Weeks of Uncertainty

The meetings of the Central Banks were held strictly according to plan last week. As expected, the key rate was raised by 25 bps (basis points) at the US Federal Reserve meeting and reached 4.75%, and by 50 bps at the European Central Bank meeting, up to 3.00%. Since the decisions themselves did not bring surprises, market participants focused on the regulators' plans for the future.

The next meeting of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) of the US Federal Reserve will not be held soon: on March 22, that is, in almost two months. Markets are likely to expect that it will announce another rate hike by 25 bps to 5.00%, after which it will hold it at this level.

The DXY Dollar Index fell to a new 9-month low of 100.80 on Thursday, February 02. This happened after the Federal Reserve made it clear that the end of the wave of rate hikes was near. Statistics show that the regulator's efforts to solve economic problems are yielding results: the inflation rate was 9.1% (the highest figure in 40 years) in June, and it fell to 6.5% in December. This makes it possible to put the brake on quantitative tightening (QT). Investors understood the dovish hints of the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, who, during the press conference following the meeting, admitted for the first time that "the deflationary process has begun." He also assumed that the peak rate would not exceed 5.00% and reiterated that the US Central Bank can achieve a slowdown in inflation without causing significant damage to the economy.

As for the Eurozone, inflation, as shown by data for January, has been falling for the third month in a row. But the basic price increase remains at the same level, despite the fall in energy prices. According to forecasts, inflation in the Eurozone is expected to reach 5.9% in 2023, to fall to 2.7% in 2024, and to fall even lower to 2.1% in 2025. Unemployment growth is also projected to decline further, while GDP growth expectations remain at the same level. According to preliminary data published on Wednesday, February 01, the growth of the European economy will be 1.9% in 2022, which is lower than the previous value (2.3%), but higher than the forecast (1.8%).

Following the last meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the risks to both economic growth and inflation in the Eurozone have become more balanced. And that the ECB will assess economic development after the next rate hike in March. (It is also expected to be 50 bps). When asked about the possibility of further rate hikes after March 16, Ms Lagarde refrained from making any commitments. This put downward pressure on the euro, and EUR/USD turned around and went down without rising above 1.1031.

The dollar received an additional boost of strength after the publication of impressive data from the US labor market on Friday, February 03. Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that the country's unemployment rate, instead of the expected increase to 3.6%, fell from 3.5% to 3.4%, and the number of jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in January increased by 517K, which is 2.8 times higher than the 185K forecast, and almost twice higher than December's 260K growth.

As a result, EUR/USD finished at 1.0794. Recall that it ended the week at 1.0833 on Friday, January 13, at 1.0855 on January 20, and at 1.0875 on January 27. This proximity of all these values (within 100 points) suggests that the market has not received clear signals about where it should aim in the foreseeable future. Although, at the time of writing the review (Friday evening, February 03), the US currency has a certain advantage.

Economists at Singapore's financial UOB Group suggest that the euro is not yet ready to move towards the resistance of 1.1120, and the pair may trade in the range of 1.0820-1.1020 for the next 1-3 weeks. As for the median forecast, 45% of analysts expect further strengthening of the euro, the same number (45%) expect the dollar to strengthen, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. The picture is different among the indicators on D1. 35% of the oscillators are colored red (one third of them are in the oversold zone), 25% are looking up and 40% are colored gray neutral. As for trend indicators, 50% recommend buying, 50% selling. The nearest support for the pair is in the zone 1.0740-1.0775, then there are levels and zones, 1.0700-1.0710, 1.0620-1.0680, 1.0560 and 1.0480-1.0500. The bulls will meet resistance at the levels of 1.0800, 1.0835-1.0850, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1030, 1.1120, after which they will try to gain a foothold in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

Next week's calendar may mark Monday February 06, when preliminary data on consumer prices in Germany and final data on January retail sales in the Eurozone will be published. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak on Tuesday. The final data on inflation (CPI) in Germany and unemployment in the US will arrive on Thursday, February 09.  And the value of the Consumer Confidence Index from the University of Michigan USA will be known on Friday, February 10.

GBP/USD: Riddles from BoE

The famous London fog continues to haze the monetary policy of the Bank of England (BoE). Like the ECB, this regulator raised the key rate by 50 bp. to 4.00% on Thursday, February 02, but at the same time it softened its message noticeably. This pushed the British currency back from its highs since mid-June 2022. values (1.2450) down, to the level of 1.2100. At the week's low, after the publication of the US NFP, the GBP/USD pair traded even lower at 1.2046, and ended the five-day period almost there, at 1.2050.

As already mentioned, the future of the UK's finances is vague and uncertain. We have tried to make sense of what the chief economist said BoE Hugh Pill, giving an interview for Times Radio on Friday February 03. Here are just a few quotes. “We must admit that we have already achieved a lot” - “There are many more steps in the pipeline.” “A number of news stories have improved recently” - “We must be prepared for shocks.” "We have a fairly high degree of confidence that inflation will fall this year" - "The focus is on whether inflation will fall further." And like the icing on the cake, Hugh Pill's remark that it's important for the Bank of England not to do "too much" in monetary policy.

To be honest, we were unable to determine from this statement where the line between "little", "much" and "too much" is drawn. Therefore, here is the opinion of Commerzbank strategists. “It has become clear that the Bank of England is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle,” they conclude. And they continue: “While the Bank of England has left the door open for further rate hikes, a more assertive approach would be desirable from a currency market perspective due to high uncertainty. Against this background, it is not surprising that the sterling has weakened, and its further decline seems likely to us.”

This point of view of Commerzbank economists has been supported by 55% of analysts, who also "thought probable" a further fall in GBP/USD. The opposite view is held by 45% of experts. Among the trend indicators on D1, the balance of power is 75% to 25% in favor of the reds. Among the oscillators, the reds win as well: their advantage is 85% versus 15%. However, among the reds, 20% signals that the pair is oversold. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at the levels 1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

Among the developments regarding the UK economy in the coming week, Friday 10 February will attract attention with the release of UK GDP data for the past 2022. It is expected that, despite some growth in Q4 (from -0.3% to 0.0%), the annual rate will show a drop from 1.9% to 0.4%.

USD/JPY: Non-Farm Payrolls Knocks the Yen Down

(https://i.imgur.com/NaMFWWD.png)

In general, the Japanese yen moved in the same way as its counterparts against the dollar last week, the euro and the British pound. However, its volatility was practically not affected by the decisions of the ECB and the Bank of England. In this case, the determining factor was the difference between interest rates on the dollar (+4.75%) and the yen (-0.1%). As a result, having found a local bottom at 128.08, USD/JPY moved sideways after the Fed meeting, and data from the US labor market (NFP) sent it on a space flight on Friday, with a length of almost 300 points, to the height of 131.18. The flight of investors from the dollar to the safe haven of Japan has stopped, and they have again decided to choose the American currency as a safe haven. USD/JPY set the last chord of the week at the level of 131.12.

Markets will now wait for March 10 for the current Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda to hold his last meeting. His powers will end on April 8, and the meeting of the BoJ on April 28 will be held by the new head of the Central Bank. It is with this event that the markets associate a possible change in the monetary policy of the regulator. Although, until that moment, interventions from the BoJ, similar to those that the regulator undertook in October-November 2022, cannot be ruled out to stop the fall of the national currency.

So far, analysts' forecasts do not provide any clear guidelines: 40% of them side with the bulls, 40% with the bears, and 20% have decided not to make predictions at all.

Among the oscillators on D1, 75% point north (15% are in the oversold zone), 15% look south and 10% look east. For trend indicators, 50% look north, exactly the same number in the opposite direction. The nearest support level is located at -130.85 zone, followed by the levels and zones of 130.50, 129.70-130.00, 128.90-129.00, 128.50, 127.75-128.10, 127.00-127.25 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 131.25, 131.65, 132.00, 132.80, 133.60, 134.40 and then 137.50.

No important events regarding the Japanese economy are expected this week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 05, 2023, 10:19:05 AM
CRYPTOCURRENCIES: BTC Has Become a Risk Protective Asset

The past week proved once again that the top cryptocurrencies, and primarily bitcoin, have long ceased to be independent. Their quotes, as well as risky assets in general, are firmly tied to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve: the US dollar is on the opposite side of the scale in BTC/USD. If it weakens, bitcoin gets heavier, and vice versa. Of course, decisions by other regulators, such as the ECB or the People's Bank of China, also influence the price of virtual assets, and internal crises such as the FTX collapse may also shake it up. But the Fed is still the main trend creator of BTC/USD.

Bitcoin is still an amazing asset. It managed, as they say, to sit on two chairs last year. On the one hand, its correlation with the stock market and stock indices S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq allows it to be classified as a risky asset. But on the other hand, analysts at the crypto media site CryptoSlate draw attention to the correlation of cryptocurrency with... gold, which has been considered insurance against inflation and other financial risks since ancient times. The coincidence in movement between the two assets has reached, according to CryptoSlate, an absolute maximum,­ 83% since February 2022. It turns out that bitcoin is both a risky and protective asset at the same time. As they say, a friend among strangers and a stranger among friends.

According to Goldman Sachs economists, even after adjusting for risk, bitcoin has already significantly outperformed gold, stock markets and the real estate sector in terms of profitability and continues to do so. The main cryptocurrency is now showing its best start to the year since January 2013. Its rate rose by 51% then, the growth was 40% last month. It happened against the backdrop of the weakness of the US dollar. “At the same time, 85% of the contribution to the rally is associated with investors from the United States,” says Markus Thielen, head of research at crypto services provider Matrixport. The bullish stance of US companies is also confirmed by the renewed premium in bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.  Open interest in BTC futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is significantly outperforming the price, with a 77% month-on-month rise to $2.3 billion. “We interpret this as a sign that faster institutional traders and hedge funds are actively buying back the recent fall in the cryptocurrency markets,” Thielen said.

Deutsche Digital Assets made a similar observation earlier, on January 20, drawing attention to the increase in Coinbase's premium as evidence of increased buying interest from sophisticated US institutional­ investors.

A survey by financial advisory firm deVere Group showed that despite the challenges of 2022, 82% of millionaires were considering investing in digital assets. 8 out of 10 surveyed clients of the company, with assets to invest from $1.2 to $6.1 million, turned to financial advisers for cryptocurrency advice.

Nigel Green, CEO and Founder of the deVere Group, believes that while the group surveyed is “generally more conservative,” its interest stems from the core values of bitcoin: “digital, global, borderless, decentralized, and secure from unauthorized access". Green also notes a growing interest in crypto services from older financial institutions such as Fidelity, BlackRock and JPMorgan, and considers this a good sign for the industry. He predicts that the momentum of interest will build as the “crypto winter” of 2022 thaws due to changing conditions in the traditional financial system. (For reference, a June 2022 Pricewaterhouse-Coopers report showed that roughly a third of the 89 traditional hedge funds surveyed had already invested in digital assets.)

Similar results were obtained by analysts from Pureprofile. Their study involved 200 institutional investors and asset managers from the US, the EU, Singapore, the UAE and Brazil. The total amount of funds managed by respondents was $2.85 trillion. Nine out of ten investors in the survey were in favor of the growth of the flagship cryptocurrency in 2023, and 23% believe that the value of BTC will exceed $30,000 by the end of the year.  In the longer term, 65% of respondents agree that the coin will break the $100,000 mark.

Not only whales, but also smaller investors remain optimistic, despite the dramatic events of the last year. According to statistics, the total number of digital wallets with a balance of $1,000 or more in bitcoin or ethereum increased by 27% in 2022. According to the survey, more than 88% of Binance crypto exchange customers plan to continue investing in cryptocurrencies, and only 3.3% do not consider this possibility. Bitcoin is still the dominant asset, owned by 21.7% of those surveyed.

Over 40% of respondents bought digital assets last year for investment purposes. Other motives were the decline in the value of bitcoin and the general bearish trend. Almost 8% cited the geopolitical situation in the world as a reason for the purchase, and 11.5% expressed distrust of the traditional financial system. 40.8% do not use traditional investment opportunities (buying shares, investing in real estate, mutual funds), while 32.4% do use them. At the same time, 79.7% are sure that cryptocurrencies are necessary for the development of the global economy, and 59.4% of respondents believe that deposits in cryptocurrencies will be able to replace bank deposits over time.

Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd founder billionaire Mike Novogratz, having weathered a challenging 2022, is now committed to long-term investment in bitcoin mining with a $65 million acquisition of a Helios mining facility in Texas, USA. And according to estimates by a popular analyst aka Plan B, known for his “Stock-to-Flow” model, the price of bitcoin will reach $1 million by 2025, which will more than recoup Mike Novogratz's costs. As for this year, Plan B expects it to rise above $100,000. The analyst also said that the January bitcoin pump confirms that the asset's 4-year cyclical price bottom is over.

According to historical observations by Matrixport experts, while January bitcoin quotes were in the “green” zone on the chart (and they were there), the price rally usually continued in the following months of the year. Based on this, they predict that the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $45,000 by Christmas 2023.

And the well-known cryptocurrency trader Peter Brand considers the bulls' joy a little premature and sticks to the bearish forecast for the near future. As the expert noted, many traders and investors are now waiting for a certain pullback in order to enter the market at better prices. The specialist believes that the flagship of the crypto market may reach the level of $25,000 in the near future, after which there will be a correction closer to $19,000. However, in the medium term, Brand is still optimistic and predicts bitcoin to rise to $65,000 in the middle of this year.

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, who said that bitcoin has a “long year” ahead of time, also warns against premature glee. According to the expert, it may appear that BTC has significant strength, while in fact the asset is likely to be in the process of forming a wide sideways range as a base. Cowen explained that sideways movement is not always an indicator of the growth of the first cryptocurrency and may also signal a fall in quotes.

The analyst reminded traders that a bearish cycle is usually followed by a year of sideways movement. Thus, there were three upward impulses in 2015, and only the last one turned into a real rally. There were also periods of growth in quotes in 2019, then their active fall followed, and a cycle that brought the crypto market to new highs started only after that. Cowen noted that 2023 can be seen as a year of accumulation and that investors can take advantage of this period to increase their holdings of BTC. In addition, he believes that the US Federal Reserve should ease monetary policy for cryptocurrency prices to grow. (The last meeting of the regulator gives hope for this).

At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, February 03), BTC/USD is trading in the $23,400 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.082 trillion ($1.060 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a metric showing the general attitude of the community towards bitcoin, entered the Greed zone for the first time since March 30, 2022, reaching 60 points (55 a week ago). It is clear that this is due to the growth of the coin rate in the first month of the year and the general revival of the market. It is worth noting, however, that the increased confidence among crypto investors should not be directly viewed as a catalyst for the resumption of bullish growth in the bitcoin price. In fact, a Fear or Extreme Fear metric could indicate a good buying opportunity, and too high a Greed reading could mean the market is headed for a downward correction.

And at the end of the review, our half-joking column of crypto life hacks. This time we want to draw the attention of BTC holders to Nigeria. It turns out that this is where you could earn. News releases say that the price of bitcoin on the popular NairaEX exchange in this country, in terms of local currency, jumped to almost $40,000, which is about 70% higher than the global market quotes. As it turned out, the discrepancy is due to the limit imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria on withdrawing funds from ATMs. So, ladies and gentlemen, do not forget about arbitrage deals, they can also bring good profits. The main thing is to know what, where, when and at what price to buy and then sell.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 08, 2023, 05:45:16 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/EuX7A0M.jpg)

- North Korean hackers stole a record amount in cryptocurrencies in 2022 and targeted the networks of foreign aerospace and defense companies. This is reported by Reuters with reference to a UN report. Cybersecurity specialists estimate the damage at more than $1 billion. At the same time, Chainalysis analysts believe that the attacks have brought the DPRK about $1.7 billion in cryptocurrencies over the past year.
Most of the attacks were carried out by cybercriminals controlled by North Korea's Main Intelligence Bureau. These include Kimsuky, Lazarus Group and Andariel. They distributed malware in various ways, including phishing. “Initial contacts with individuals were made through LinkedIn, and once a level of trust with the targets was established, the malware was delivered via WhatsApp,” the UN notes, adding that the methods of hackers have become more sophisticated, making it more difficult to trace the stolen assets.

- Morgan Creek investment company CEO Mark W. Yusko, said in an interview with Cointelegraph that the next bull market could start as early as Q2 2023. This will be facilitated by favorable macroeconomic conditions and expectations of bitcoin halving.
According to the top manager, the US Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut the key rate in the near future. However, even a slowdown or pause in this process will be perceived as a positive signal for risky assets, which include cryptocurrencies.
The CEO of Morgan Creek indicated the expectations of the next bitcoin halving, which is expected to take place around April 19-21, 2024, as an additional reason for the bull market He believes that the recovery of the digital asset market usually begins nine months before this event, that is, it is the end of summer 2023 this time.

- Cathy Wood, the head of ARK Invest, still considers the first cryptocurrency the best form of protection against financial losses and an insurance policy for developing countries. “We're seeing hyperinflation around the world as fiat currencies crash. All segments of the population need a fallback, an insurance policy like bitcoin,” she said in an interview with Yahoo Finance.
According to Cathy Wood, all segments of the population, both the poor and the wealthy, will benefit from the use of digital gold. As for the latter, she pointed to bitcoin as a hedge against capital forfeiture in countries like China or Russia.

- MicroStrategy, a developer of analytical software and one of the largest crypto investors, recorded a balance sheet loss for 2022 in the amount of $1.3 billion. This is due to its long-term investment in bitcoin. (As of December 31, 2022, MicroStrategy held a total of 132,500 BTC worth $1.84 billion).
At the same time, the company's management states that it does not plan to stop trading the digital asset. According to Michael Saylor, MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor, it has “managed to surpass bitcoin as an index” since the company first announced its purchase of BTC in August 2020: its shares have risen by 117% during this time, while the value of bitcoin has increased by 98%.

- Commenting on the collapse of Alameda and FTX, Michael Saylor said that he sees this as a kind of manifestation of Darwin's theory: weak and bad players left the market, and this pushed the industry forward in the long run. At the same time, according to the co-founder of MicroStrategy, cryptocurrencies need a clear regulatory framework for companies to comply with certain standards and protect customers. “What is really needed is supervision. Clear guidance from Congress is needed for the industry to have its own Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and BlackRock. We need clear rules of conduct from the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) of the United States.”

- David Marcus, former head of Meta's blockchain division and former PayPal president, suggested that crypto winter will only end by 2025, when the market recovers from last year's turmoil. He believes that the time will soon pass when you can create a token out of thin air and earn millions of dollars from it. Much more value will be given to decentralized applications that have practical value for the real world. Marcus expects big breakthroughs in payments, asset tokenization, and decentralized finance (DeFi). However, the specialist doubts that the legislature will be able to develop rules for regulating cryptocurrencies in the near future, therefore, crypto companies will continue to operate in a "vacuum" in 2023, at their own peril and risk.

- Charlie Munger, an associate of Warren Buffett, vice president of the Berkshire Hathaway holding company, called on the US authorities to destroy bitcoin, which the billionaire compares investing in to gambling. He said in an interview with the Wall Street Journal that the cryptocurrency industry is undermining the stability of the global financial sector. And that BTC cannot be considered an asset class as it has no value.
Munger has been expressing this point of view over the past few years. And now he calls on the US authorities to deal a devastating blow to the crypto market. In his opinion, it is necessary to push it into the strictest regulatory framework, as a result of which the industry will simply not withstand the pressure and die.

- Crypto trader and investor Tone Vays stated that bitcoin “has risen very fast and very high.” BTC rose from a low of $16,272 in November 2022 to $24,229 in early February 2023 and is now facing major resistance as it approaches the $25,000 level. The specialist believes that BTC will eventually break through the resistance zone, but the asset probably “should take a break” at the moment. Weiss clarified that he expects either consolidation of the rate in a narrow range, or a small pullback.
Many experts are also keeping a close eye on the $25,000 level. For example, analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that bitcoin is on the verge of a potential trend change that could lead to a rise in quotes, as it did in 2019. The legendary trader Peter Brandt predicted earlier that the exit from the “double bottom support” technical analysis pattern would lead the coin to rise above $25,000.

- According to statistics, the media forecast of crypto community members accurately predicted the value of bitcoin by the end of each month, over the past six months with a probability of up to 75%. Finbold experts note that the forecasts obtained from a survey of more than 15 thousand traders, and the predictions of machine learning algorithms, are seriously different at the moment. Real people expect BTC quotes to fall to $20,250 by February 28, 2023, while artificial intelligence points to $24,342.

- Swiss Rehabilitation Center The Balance has offered a course of treatment for addiction to crypto trading. According to some reports, about 1% of crypto traders have such a serious pathological addiction. The course is designed for a four-week stay in the center itself or in its branches in Mallorca, London or Zurich. The cost of treatment exceeds $75,000. Anna Lembke, professor of psychiatry at Stanford University, said the course is similar to treating a gambling addiction. At the same time, she called such a high cost of treatment unjustified.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 15, 2023, 03:28:38 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/HdRmAyE.jpg)

- Cryptocurrency entrepreneurs should consider moving to a country with favorable regulation of the bitcoin industry. This was stated by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. He considers Dubai (UAE), Bahrain and France to be such jurisdictions. Zhao added that newcomers to the industry will definitely need legal advice in order to "not cross any of the red lines" set by regulators.
This advice came against the background of tightening regulation of the industry by the US authorities. In particular, we are talking about an investigation launched by the New York State Department of Financial Services against infrastructure company Paxos. The regulator later ordered the firm to stop issuing the Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin. The SEC (US Securities and Exchange Commission) also announced its readiness to sue Paxos.
The CEO of Binance was supported by Uniswap founder Hayden Adams. “It is a shame to watch the US efforts in the cryptosphere. Innovative companies get an additional incentive to go abroad. It's like if the government banned the development of the Internet 30 years ago,” he wrote.

- According to Politico, Senator Elizabeth Warren has begun building a coalition against cryptocurrencies and is actively recruiting conservative Republicans in the US Senate. By doing so, she wants to support her bills, which could have serious consequences for the crypto industry, and which imply tighter restrictions in the fight against money laundering, including additional requirements for verifying the identity of consumers. Warren positions herself as a leading digital asset legislator and enjoys the backing of the banking lobby.
The US Department of the Treasury is currently actively monitoring cases of illegal funding using cryptocurrencies. The Warren bill will extend these obligations to other agencies and entities, including service providers in the digital asset segment.

- Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin sent 99 ETH (~$155,000 at the time of writing) to Ahbap, a non-profit organization that raises money to help earthquake victims in Turkey and Syria. According to Ahbap's official website, the organization has already raised over $4.2 million in cryptocurrencies.
According to the latest data, the disaster has claimed the lives of more than 25,000 people. More than 80,000 people have been injured in Turkey alone. The series of earthquakes has become the largest since 2010 in terms of the number of victims.

- Investor and star of the TV show Shark Tank, Kevin O'Leary, said on The Wolf of All Streets podcast that most of the 10,000 digital assets are worthless. “They will eventually fall to zero due to the lack of volatility and [trading] volume. They are not needed,” he announced his verdict. O'Leary also talked about losing all of his crypto investments after the FTX crash in November 2022. However, after that, he has already opened new positions in bitcoin, ethereum and 5 other assets (previously his portfolio included 32 positions).

- The South Korean authorities have included in the sanctions list a number of North Korean hacker groups and individuals associated with cyber attacks and cryptocurrency theft. This was reported by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Seoul. The sanctions came just hours after South Korea and the United States announced a cybersecurity joint venture.
In particular, hackers working in the information technology sector at the North Korean company Chosun Expo Joint Venture were blacklisted. It is alleged to be a shell company associated with the Lazarus Group. North Korean hackers have stolen more than $1.2 billion worth of virtual assets since 2017, including $626 million in 2022, according to information provided by the Foreign Ministry.

- Former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal believes Ethereum is destined to reach a five-digit price in the next bull market. The macro expert has set a target price for ethereum around $10,000, primarily due to the good potential of the token. However, he believes that some of the main competitors will surpass him. “ETH is the money of the internet. And I do not think that it will lose this status, but this does not mean that this is the best player, - said the financier. - Solana, I think, aims for the widest possible adoption, making it convenient for the consumer. […] However, ETH is the easiest way because it probably has the least risk.”

- According to technical analysis by CryptoQuant expert Grizzly, BTC/USD has formed a unique pattern that has previously been observed at market lows. The specialist added the 200-day SMA and the realized price to the long-term chart and concluded that this could be a sign of a long-term uptrend. According to his observations, this was especially evident in 2019, 2015 and 2012.
At the same time, Grizzly noted that macroeconomic factors that put pressure on high-risk asset markets should not be overlooked. It is not known whether bitcoin will be able to “separate” from assets such as stocks and demonstrate “decent behavior” as a reliable hedge against inflation. According to the expert, only time will tell if the largest cryptocurrency maintains its upward trajectory.

- Another popular Twitter analyst, Kaleo, with 563,000 followers, also shared his prediction about the near future of bitcoin and ethereum. The analyst believes that a price of $30,000 is still possible for bitcoin. Ethereum, in his opinion, will repeat the movement of 2018-2020. The price of this altcoin rose from $80 to $480 then. At the time of writing the review, the ETH exchange rate is $1,580. According to Kaleo's calculations, the target level is located almost twice as high: around $3,000.

- The number of users of the first cryptocurrency will grow from the current over 300 million to 1 billion in the next three years. This would be riughly 12% of the world's population. This forecast was given by well-known analyst Willy Woo. He recalled that it took six months for bitcoin to form an audience of the first 1,000 users. It took five years for that number to rise to 1 million. The network achieved its current figures of more than 300 million, 13.8 years after the formation of the genesis block. For comparison, Woo cited the audience of PayPal (430 million people) and Twitter (400 million, most of which, he believes, are bots).

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestselling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, stated that the price of bitcoin will rise to $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” he wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.
Prior to this, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital, said that the value of one bitcoin on the exchange could double to $50,000 over the next two to three years. Scaramucci called 2023 a “recovery year” for bitcoin.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 18, 2023, 10:56:02 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 20 - 24, 2023


EUR/USD: The Fed Doesn't Hinder the US Economy

January data released on Tuesday, February 14 showed that the US Federal Reserve's victory over inflation is still very, very far away. The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged on a monthly basis at +0.4%. At the same time, although the annual data were slightly lower than the previous value: +6.4% against +6.5%, they exceeded the forecast of +6.2%. Another portion of American statistics came out the next day, February 15.  After two months of decline, retail sales in the US showed the highest growth rate in almost 2 years, jumping from -1.1% in December to +3.0% in January (against the forecast of +1.8%).

The initial reaction to this was the strengthening of the dollar (the DXY index reached 104.1 points, the maximum since January 09), and a sharp drop in stock indices. Market participants decided that such macro statistics will force the Fed to further tighten monetary policy actively. If the peak value of the interest rate was predicted at 4.9% in early February with a subsequent decrease by 50 basis points (bp) by the end of the year, the peak is seen now at 5.25%, and a possible decrease only by 25 b.p. in 2023. At the same time, the probability that the rate will be increased three more times, in March, May and June, is 50%.

As already mentioned, the strengthening of the dollar and the sharp fall in stock indices was the first reaction of the market. But then there was an equally sharp reversal and the return of investor risk appetite. Stock indices went up. The market decided that if the US economy coped with the most aggressive interest rate hike in decades quite easily, it would cope with it in the future. Not only retail sales, but also other economic indicators show a convincing rise at the moment. Thus, employment grew by an impressive 517K new jobs, and the country's GDP, according to the leading indicator from the Atlanta Fed, may grow not by 2.2%, but by 2.4% in Q1 2023.

Then the market sentiment changed again. Another piece of statistics showed that the number of Americans who filed new applications for unemployment benefits fell unexpectedly, while producer prices (PPI) rose to a 7-month high in January. In this situation, market expectations regarding the further cycle of monetary restriction have again increased. S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq headed south together, while DXY headed north to a six-week high of 104.58. After that, on the eve of a long weekend in the US, the Dollar Index fell again to 103.85 points.

EUR/USD reacted accordingly to the volatile DXY fluctuations. As a result, having started last week at 1.0679, it ended it at 1.0694, that is, with almost zero results. At the time of writing the review (evening of February 17), 80% of analysts expect further strengthening of the dollar, 10% expect the strengthening of the euro, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

This time, the readings of the oscillators on D1 coincide with the opinion of analysts almost completely. 80% of them are colored red (20% signal that the pair is oversold), the remaining 20% are colored gray neutral. Among trend indicators, 60% recommend selling, 40% - buying. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone 1.0600-1.0620, then there are levels and zones, 1.0560, 1.0500, 1.0440 and 1.0370-1.0400. The bulls will meet resistance in the area of 1.0700-1.0710, 1.0745-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1030, 1.1110, after which they will try to gain a foothold in the 1.1260-1.1360 echelon.

The events of the coming week include the publication of business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, February 21. The value of the German Harmonized Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known on Wednesday, February 22. Also on this day, the minutes of the last FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be published late in the evening. Volatility will be provided by data on inflation (CPI) of the Eurozone, as well as on unemployment and US GDP, on Thursday, February 23. We will find out German GDP indicators and statistics on consumer spending by American citizens at the very end of the working week, on Friday, February 24. Traders also need to keep in mind that Monday, February 20 is a day off in the US: the country celebrates President's Day.   

GBP/USD: BoE Could Crash the Pound

The pound tried to win back part of its losses at the beginning of last week. GBP/USD, having bounced off the level of 1.2030 on February 13, reached a two-week high of 1.2270 the next day. Then, along with other currencies included in the DXY Index, the pound began to retreat against the dollar. As a result, the local minimum was fixed at 1.1915. This was followed by a return to the initial positions and GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2040.

Neither Inflation data nor data on unemployment in the UK helped the British currency (CPI fell to +10.1% in January against the forecast of +10.3% and +10.5% in December). The market also ignored retail sales statistics, although they rose by +0.5% in January against the forecast of -0.3% and the previous result of -1.2%. The news that the UK and the EU have achieved good results in the protracted Brexit negotiations did not have a noticeable effect on the dynamics of the pound either.

Much more important for the quotes of the British currency was macro statistics from the US, as well as expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may soon reach the end of the rate hike cycle. “The Bank of England is clearly concerned that a significant rate hike could slow down the economy too much,” Commerzbank economists wrote, explaining their bearish view of GBP's prospects, and colleagues from Singapore's United Overseas Bank agreed, according to them GBP/USD may retest the 1.1900 level in the near future.

If we talk about the median forecast of experts, 70% of them vote for the further weakening of the pound, 10% prefer to refrain from forecasts. Only 20% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the pound and the growth of the pair. Among the trend indicators on D1, the balance of power is 85% to 15% in favor of the reds. Reds have a 100% advantage among oscillators. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.1990-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1915, 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720 and 1.1600. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at the levels 1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

As far as the UK economy is concerned, Tuesday February 21 is of interest on the calendar for the upcoming week, when the country's business activity statistics (PMI) are released.

USD/JPY: Hopes for QT Remain

“The Japanese government has chosen Academician Kazuo Ueda as the new head of the Central Bank based on expectations of a stable inflation target along with a structural increase in wages,” said Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki. And it doesn't seem that this choice went in favor of the Japanese currency. Having started the week at 131.39, USD/JPY fixed a local high at 135.15, and set the last chord of the five-day period at 134.17.

Recall that 71-year-old Kazuo Ueda, a former professor at the University of Tokyo, joined the board of governors of BOJ a quarter of a century ago, in April 1998, and remained there until April 2005. Back in 2000, Ueda spoke out against the Central Bank's abandonment of the zero-rate policy. It seems that even now he will not rush to curtail the ultra-soft monetary policy. This is confirmed by Ueda himself, who stated on February 10 that the current policy of the regulator is adequate, and that it is necessary to continue to adhere to it.

Despite such statements, the question of what this policy will be like under the new leader remains open at the moment. The majority of experts (60%) have taken a wait-and-see attitude.  15% are counting on the growth of USD/JPY in the near future, and 25% expect it to fall.  If we talk about a three-month perspective, only 10% of analysts talk about a further weakening of the Japanese currency, 25% are still neutral, but 65% are waiting for tightening monetary policy (QT) and strengthening the yen, contrary to the statements of Kazuo Ueda.

For example, Danske Bank economists predict that the USD/JPY rate will fall and reach 125.00 in three months. A similar position is shared by strategists at BNP Paribas Research. “We expect the strength of the US dollar to end up short-lived,” they say. “We believe that the US dollar has entered a multi-year bearish trend, and portfolio flows are becoming increasingly negative for the currency.” BNP Paribas predicts that positive yields in Japan could encourage the repatriation of funds by local investors, as a result of which USD/JPY will fall to 121.00 by the end of 2023.

Among the oscillators on D1, 100% points north (15% of them are in the overbought zone). For trend indicators, 75% look north, and 25% look in the opposite direction. The nearest level of support is located in zone 134.00, followed by levels and zones 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25 130.50, 129.70-130.00, 128.90-129.00, 128.50, 127.75-128.10, 127.00-127.25 and 125.00. Levels and resistance zones are 134.40, 134.75-135.10, 135.60, 136.00, 137.50, 139.35, 140.60, 143.75.

No important macro data on the state of the Japanese economy is expected this week. In addition, it must be borne in mind that Thursday, February 23, is a day off in Japan, the country celebrates the Emperor's Birthday.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Five Reasons for BTC's Growth

(https://i.imgur.com/y3H5klr.jpg)

The topic of regulating the cryptocurrency market has been getting louder and louder since last spring. Many influencers argue that one can count on a massive influx of funds from institutional investors only if a clear regulatory framework is in place. Here is just one of the latest statements by MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor. “What is really needed,” he said, “is oversight. [...] Clear guidance from Congress is needed. We need clear rules of conduct from the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) of the United States.” And it must be said that such calls from representatives of big capital respond to the minds and actions of government officials.  For example, Senator Elizabeth Warren is already actively recruiting conservative Republicans in the US Senate to support her bills, which significantly tighten the regulation of the crypto industry.

We note that the tragic events of 2022, caused by the collapse of a number of leading representatives of the industry, caused a sharp surge in the activity of US supervisory authorities. And the regulators began to work with redoubled energy this year. To begin with, they attacked the Kraken crypto exchange, which was actually banned from providing staking services. But the truck did not stop there and ran into the infrastructure company Paxos, which is responsible for issuing USDP, PAXG and Binance BUSD stablecoin. This is an investigation launched by the New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) against this company. The regulator later ordered the firm to stop issuing the BUSD stablecoin. The SEC also announced its readiness to sue Paxos.

This situation led to a massive outflow of funds from the stablecoin. Many users have started exchanging BUSD for USDT. But it's still half the trouble. Some frightened users simply decided to leave Binance. On February 14 alone, the net outflow of funds from this exchange amounted to $831 million, a record since the collapse of FTX.

Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao responded to pressure from the US authorities by calling on industry participants to consider moving to another country. He considers Dubai (UAE), Bahrain and France to be jurisdictions with favorable regulation. The CEO of Binance was supported by Uniswap founder Hayden Adams. “It's a shame to watch the US efforts in the cryptosphere,” he wrote. “Innovative companies get an additional incentive to go abroad. It’s as if the government banned the development of the Internet 30 years ago.”

Surprisingly, against this frankly negative background, the price of bitcoin went up, reaching $25.241 on February 16. The last time BTC/USD climbed this high was in mid-August 2022. There have been several reasons for the current rally.

The first of these, paradoxically, is the mentioned attack by the NYFDS and SEC on Kraken and Paxos. US regulators treat PoS coins as toxic assets due to passive income from staking (expectation of profit). Based on this, such coins can receive the status of a security, with all the ensuing legal consequences. Bitcoin, on the other hand, is still the result of the work of miners, which allows it to avoid (at least for now) a similar fate. The network hashrate continues to set records.

Another driver for the growth (and subsequent fall) of digital “gold” quotes is its correlation with the stock market ( S&P500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq).

The third reason is that the main cryptocurrency was oversold in 2022, which caused the average production cost to fall below the market price. And most of the miners were forced to sell off BTC stocks in order to cover operating costs and ensure payments on accounts payable.

The next reason is the Ordinals protocol launched at the end of January, which allows not only to conduct financial transactions in the bitcoin network, but also to transfer any digital objects, including images, audio and video files. The launch of this protocol also resulted in an increase in network activity. The number of non-zero wallets set a new record, and miners received $876,000 in additional income in the form of commissions in less than a month.

The beginning of the BTC rally forced short-term speculators to close short positions, which further stimulated the growth of bitcoin. And that was reason number five.

According to Glassnode specialists, the current fair value of the flagship cryptocurrency is $33,000. This is the figure bitcoin should aim for. A similar figure of $30,000 is cited by Kaleo, a popular analyst with 563,000 Twitter followers. His forecast for the leading altcoin was also quite optimistic. According to Kaleo calculations, the target level for ETH/USD is located in the $3,000 area. Former Goldman Sachs CEO Raoul Pal also gave his forecast for ethereum, setting a target price of this coin around $10,000. Although, such growth will take more time of course.

If we talk about a three-year horizon, according to well-known analyst Willy Woo, the number of users of the first cryptocurrency will grow from the current over 300 million to 1 billion during this time. This will approximately correspond to 12% of the world's population. Willy Woo recalled that it took six months for bitcoin to form an audience of the first 1,000 users. It took five years for that number to rise to 1 million. The network achieved its current figures of more than 300 million, 13.8 years after the formation of the genesis block.

SkyBridge Capital hedge fund founder Anthony Scaramucci called 2023 a “recovery year” for bitcoin. However, his forecast looks rather modest. In his opinion, the value of BTC may “only” double over the next two to three years, up to $50,000.

As for another influencer, best-selling author of Rich Dad Poor Dad, Robert Kiyosaki, he claims that bitcoin will rise to a fantastic $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold will be at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” Kiyosaki wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.

Risky assets sank sharply down in the last days of the past week. Following the stock indices, the quotes of crypto-currencies also fell, but then recovered quite quickly. At the time of writing this review (Friday evening, February 16), BTC/USD is trading in the $24,600 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.106 trillion ($1.010 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 48 to 61 points in a week and moved from the Neutral zone to the Greed zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 22, 2023, 03:18:35 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ued0SIL.jpg)

- FTX CTO Nishad Singh plans to plead guilty to fraud for his role in the crashed exchange and is discussing a possible deal with prosecutors, Bloomberg reports. Two other associates pleaded guilty to charges related to the collapse of FTX in December, but the head of the exchange, Sam Bankman-Freed, has not made a deal with the investigators.
Singh created the platform software and played an important role in the daily operations of FTX. He was part of Bankman-Freed's inner circle, living with him in a penthouse in the Bahamas. Singh has donated over $9.3 million to US Democratic candidates since 2020 and has also received hundreds of millions of dollars in loans from Alameda.

- The number of addresses with a balance of 1000 BTC or more has dropped to August 2019 levels. According to the analytical company Glassnode, there are 2,024 such whales (as of February 20, 2023). The number of addresses in this category peaked in February 2021, about 2,500. Then, despite the rally of bitcoin to an all-time high near $69,000, the indicator began to decline.
The number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more (from $240 million at current prices) is stable near the peaks corresponding to the values of November 2022 and October 2018. There are currently 115 such “mega-whale” wallets in total. But the number of smaller addresses (from 1 BTC) keeps to update the highs. Their number increased by 20% during the year, approaching 982,000.

- The Russian Bureau of Interpol officers, at the request from the United States, detained in Moscow a 31-year-old Briton who helped North Korea circumvent sanctions and advised members of the DPRK government on ways to withdraw funds abroad using cryptocurrencies.

- Vice Chairman of the legendary holding company Berkshire Hathaway Charlie Munger, who is Warren Buffett's right-hand man, called those who disagree with him on the cryptocurrencies ban "idiots". “I'm not proud of my country [USA] for allowing this crap. It's just ridiculous that someone is buying this [digital assets]," the 99-year-old billionaire said. - This is not good. It's crazy. It only hurts. And it's antisocial." Munger has previously urged the US authorities to follow China's lead and ban digital assets. In his opinion, they cannot be attributed either to currencies, or to goods, or to securities.

- Kevin O'Leary, investor, journalist and host of the hit show Shark Tank, called on crypto exchanges to work more closely with government regulatory agencies. He stated that “American financial regulators are tired” of watching the wave of company bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency industry. And they treat such firms much more harshly now. Therefore, any business in this area should be more careful.
“You should work with regulators. No need to stand in the way of the SEC and other agencies. These guys in Washington are pretty mean. The collapse of FTX kicked the bear. It woke up and was furious. Senators are really tired: they are tired of meeting every six months when another large cryptocurrency firm collapses. They are fed up with the fact that the industry is not regulated, and everyone can issue their own useless tokens,” said this Canadian entrepreneur.
Kevin O'Leary believes that regulated companies will attract significantly more investment than their unregulated rivals. And in general, unregulated companies run the risk of going bankrupt through the actions of officials. Kevin O'Leary had earlier stated that most crypto assets have no intrinsic value and will collapse to zero in the near future.

- Alex Gladstein, the director of the Human Rights Foundation, said In a recent interview that the first cryptocurrency is able to limit the power of states with "collapsed democracy" and deprive them of the ability to control people. According to him, bitcoin prevents "tyrannical governments" from imposing their will on the people. “Bitcoin restores democracy. Bitcoin is about free speech, property rights, and open capital markets. What do authoritarian countries need? Quite the opposite: censorship, confiscation and closed capital markets,” Gladstein said.

- Tim Berners-Lee, a British scientist and creator of the Internet, URL, HTTP and HTML, has criticized cryptocurrencies as dangerous speculative tools for market manipulation. According to the inventor, the Internet should exist without blockchain. The engineer is sure that this technology is not so fast and safe.
In his opinion, crypto assets are very similar to the dot-com bubble, when a large number of Internet companies closed 20 years ago without a fundamental basis for business development. Berners-Lee believes that digital currencies can only be suitable for money transfers if they are immediately converted into fiat currencies upon receipt.

- Bitcoin has the potential to become the digital gold of the 21st century, Deutsche Bank analyst Marion Laboure says, adding that it is important to be mindful of the risks associated with the first cryptocurrency. She recalls that people have always looked for assets that were not controlled by governments, and gold has played this role for centuries.
Laboure is sure that the main problems of cryptocurrencies are the lack of regulation and the environmental consequences of mining. “For example, bitcoin mining requires about the same amount of electricity in a year as the entire population of Pakistan uses, about 217 million people!”

- Asian investors may push bitcoin quotes up, Cameron Winklevoss, co-founder of the Gemini crypto exchange, thinks. His thesis is that the next phase of price growth will occur in the East, and the US will have to adjust to new conditions. Recall that according to Chainalysis, the Asia-Pacific region already ranks third in the world in terms of cryptocurrency investments.

- According to Matrix analysts, the price of bitcoin is able to rise to $29,000 by the summer and to $45,000 by the end of this year. However, this will happen under the condition of a further slowdown in the growth rate of consumer inflation in the United States. Matrix notes that the price of the cryptocurrency has recently risen above $25,000 several times. Analysts see this as a positive signal, as BTC's rise has taken place despite the negative news on the tightening of cryptocurrency regulations in the US and Europe.
Speaking about their forecast, Matrix also refers to the “January effect”: price success in the first month often predetermines the movement of the main cryptocurrency throughout the year. In addition, experts recalled that historically, the price of bitcoin tests the lows 12-15 months before the next halving. This time, such period was December 2022 - March 2023.
Plan B also speaks about a possible rally. According to his estimates, bitcoin could test the $42,000 level as early as March.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 26, 2023, 05:48:00 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for February 27 - March 3, 2023


EUR/USD: FOMC Protocol Strengthens the Dollar

(https://i.imgur.com/XqfNUiB.jpg)

Macroeconomic statistics in both the US and the Eurozone look mixed. In both regions, inflation is slowing down (which is good), but GDP growth is also decreasing (which is bad for the economy). According to the US Department of Commerce, the pace of consumer spending growth in the country for Q4 was +1.4% after +2.3% in Q3 (forecasted at +2.1%). The US GDP growth rate on an annual basis, according to preliminary estimates, will be lower than expected, +2.7% (forecast and previous value +2.9%). However, despite this, labour market statistics look positive enough. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, forecasted at 200K, actually decreased from 195K to 192K. According to final data from Eurostat, inflation in the Eurozone slowed down to +8.6% YoY in January (+9.2% a month earlier). Things are becoming more difficult in Germany, the main locomotive of the European economy. According to January data, the annual inflation rate was +9.2% compared to +9.6% in December, but at the same time, the country's GDP also went down, with a decline of -0.4% (forecast and previous value -0.2%). The very fresh February CPI data did not please either, showing an increase from +8.1% to +8.7%.

Against this backdrop, market sentiment remains in favour of the US dollar. This is primarily due to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) meeting minutes, which were published on Wednesday, February 22 by the US Federal Reserve. The minutes did not bring any surprises. However, market participants saw once again that the regulator is not going to stop its fight against inflation.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) summarized the main conclusions from the minutes as follows: 1) Despite progress in the fight against inflation, it remains significantly above the target level of 2%. 2) All Committee members agreed that achieving inflation targets will require more interest rate hikes and keeping it at a high level until the Fed is confident that inflation is sustainably going down. 3) Although the FOMC voted in February to raise the rate by 25 basis points (bps), several participants wanted it to be increased by 50 bps. 4) The Fed is still more concerned about inflation than slowing economic growth.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen confirmed these conclusions. She stated at the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting on Friday, February 24 that "inflation is coming down, measured on a 12-month basis, but core inflation is still above 2%". According to Janet Yellen, a "soft landing" for the economy without a recession is possible thanks to the strong labour market and strong US balances.

All of the above has led to the US dollar index, DXY, continuing its rise, reaching a local high of 105.26 points, while EUR/USD ended the workweek at the level of 1.0546 (week low at 1.0535).

Most likely, the main factor determining the dynamics of the dollar until the next FOMC meeting on March 21-22 will be speculations on how far the regulator is willing to go in its "crusade" against inflation. According to UOB's forecast, the rate may be raised by 25 bps in March and May, ultimately reaching 5.25%, and remain at this level until the end of the year. According to some other estimates, the peak federal funds rate by July could be 5.38%.

According to specialists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, February and March are seasonally strong months for the dollar, and the rate of 4.50% for overnight deposits may still slightly support the dollar. However, according to their colleagues at Commerzbank, it will become increasingly difficult for the US currency to strengthen against the euro. Much has already been priced in, and there are no strong new drivers in sight. Especially since the ECB is not standing still in tightening its monetary policy. The final data on consumer prices in the Eurozone, which were revised upwards to 5.3% in the core index, published on February 23, will be the next stimulus for such QT.

At the time of writing this review (evening of February 24), 40% of analysts expect further strengthening of the dollar (half as many as a week ago), 50% expect a correction of EUR/USD to the north, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position.

All 100% of D1 oscillators are painted red, although a quarter of them are signalling the pair is oversold. Among trend indicators, 75% recommend selling and 25% buying. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.5000-1.0525, then come levels and zones of 1.0440 and 1.0370-1.0400, 1.0300, 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will encounter resistance in the region of 1.0560-1.0575, 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0680-1.0710, 1.0745-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865.

Events of the upcoming week include the publication of data on orders for capital goods and durable goods in the US on Monday, February 27. Wednesday, the first day of March, will bring a large volume of macro statistics from Germany. This includes the Harmonized Consumer Prices Index (CPI), the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector, as well as the change in the number of unemployed in the country. In addition, the value of the PMI in the US manufacturing sector will be announced on this day. We are expecting the February CPI for the Eurozone, the ECB's statement on monetary policy, and data on unemployment in the US on Thursday, March 2. And there will be another portion of American statistics, including the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the service sector, at the very end of the workweek.

GBP/USD: Business Activity Grows, but the Pound Falls

The British pound is struggling to resist the advance of the dollar. Despite regular counterattacks, it is retreating step by step. Starting the week at 1.2040, GBP/USD reached a local peak at 1.2147, but then went down and ended the five-day period at 1.1942.

It is worth noting that the UK economy managed to avoid a recession at the end of 2022, and the data on business activity in the United Kingdom, published on Tuesday, February 21, is quite optimistic. The Composite PMI Index, with a forecast of 49.0, should grow from 48.5 to 53.0 points over the month. However, these are only preliminary data, with the final ones becoming available on March 1 and 3. At the same time, the confidence of British consumers is lower than during the financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the recessions of the 1980s and 1990s.

Although inflation in the country is decreasing, it remains in double digits and is five times higher than the Bank of England's target rate. (CPI fell to +10.1% in January, with a forecast of +10.3%, and +10.5% in December). Inflation is being kept high in part due to the labour market, and there is currently no reason to believe that wage growth in the UK is slowing down.

The market expects that the Bank of England, like the Federal Reserve, will raise the key interest rate twice by 25 basis points in March and April, bringing it to a peak of 4.5%. However, many in the BoE leadership are very concerned that a significant increase in rates could overly slow down the economy. Therefore, the regulator's monetary policy, which is already ambiguous, could be adjusted at any time.

As for the median forecast of experts, 45% of them vote for further weakening of the pound, 25% expect GBP/USD to rise, and 30% prefer to refrain from making predictions. Among the trend indicators on D1, the balance of power is 85% to 15% in favour of the red. Among the oscillators, the red has a 100% advantage, 15% of which are in the oversold zone. The support levels and zones for the pair are 1.1900-1.1915, 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720, and 1.1600. If the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.1960, 1.1990-1.2025, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750, and 1.2940.

As for the economy of the United Kingdom, in addition to the final data on business activity (PMI) in the UK, which will be released on March 1 and 3, we can note the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, scheduled for Wednesday, March 1.

USD/JPY: Hopes for QT Are Weakening, but Still Remain

"It seems that the appointment of academic Kadsuo Wada as the new head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has not benefited the Japanese currency," we wrote in our previous review. And now, looking at the USD/JPY chart, we can only confirm this statement. In addition to the strengthening dollar, another blow to the yen was dealt by Kadsuo Wada himself. His speech on Friday, February 24, helped the pair to rise from the level of 134.04 to a height of 136.41. The comments of the future head of the central bank, who spoke in the lower house of the Japanese Parliament, in general corresponded to the current BoJ policy, and only exacerbated the disappointment of those who hoped for significant changes in the regulator's monetary policy. Investors could not discern in these comments a clear "hawkish" signal that would boost the resumption of speculative demand for the yen, which was already weakening against the backdrop of the rise of the DXY and the increase in the yield of 10-year treasuries. It should be reminded that there is a direct correlation between USD/JPY and U.S. Treasury bills. If the yield of securities rises, then the dollar rises against the Japanese yen.

We already wrote a week ago that some experts expect a serious strengthening of the Japanese currency in the future. For example, economists at Danske Bank predict that the USD/JPY rate will fall and reach the level of 125.00 in three months. BNP Paribas Research strategists hold a similar position. According to their forecasts, in the event of a tightening of monetary policy, positive yields in Japan may stimulate the repatriation of funds by local investors, resulting in USD/JPY falling to 121.00 by the end of 2023. But all of these are still quite shaky assumptions, although 75% of analysts share them. As for the near-term prospects, currently only 35% of experts expect a southward movement of the pair, while an equal number look in the opposite direction, and the remaining 20% remain neutral. Among the oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% indicate a northward movement (15% of which are in the overbought zone). Among the trend indicators, 75% point to the north and 25% to the south. The nearest support level is located in the 135.90 zone, followed by levels and zones of 134.90-135.15, 134.40, 134.00, 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25, 130.50, 129.70-130.00. Resistance levels and zones are at 136.70, 136.00, 137.50, 139.00-139.35, 140.60, 143.75.

No important macroeconomic statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy are expected next week. However, Kadsuo Wada will give another speech on Monday, February 27, but it is unlikely to contain anything new and revolutionary.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Is Under Pressure, but It Doesn't Give Up. Not yet

Regarding the past week, we can say this: bitcoin is under pressure, but it is holding up. Among the main pressure factors, we can name the financial report of the Coinbase exchange for Q4 2022 and the strengthening of the dollar. Coinbase's revenue plummeted by 75% in the last quarter of last year, which was unusually difficult for the cryptocurrency market. The reason for such a collapse is clear: customer outflows due to a series of scandals and bankruptcies of major and not-so-major industry players. As a result, Coinbase's losses amounted to $2.46 per share. (For comparison, the profit per share of this crypto giant was $3.32 a year ago). It is unknown whether Coinbase will explode like FTX. But in any case, investors should not forget about the risks associated with this market.
As for the second pressure factor, it's all about the Federal Reserve System (FRS) of the United States, as always. Increased market expectations regarding the interest rate have strengthened the quoted currency in BTC/USD and, accordingly, weakened its base part. And it should be noted that bitcoin has shown itself to be a stronger asset in this situation than stock indices, with which it usually correlates. Thus, the S&P500 returned to mid-January values, and the Dow Jones even fell to December values, while the flagship cryptocurrency has grown by 40% since January 1, 2023.

Debate over the future of digital assets continues. Vice Chairman of legendary holding company Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffet's right-hand man, Charlie Munger, still calls on US authorities to completely ban cryptocurrencies. The 99-year-old billionaire called anyone who disagrees with him "idiots" and added, "I'm not proud of my country for allowing this filth. It's just ridiculous that anyone buys this [digital assets]. It's no good. It's crazy. It only does harm." Kevin O’Leary, investor, journalist, and host of the popular show Shark Tank recalled this as well. He said that "American financial regulators are tired" of watching waves of bankruptcies in the cryptocurrency industry. "These guys in Washington are very angry. The FTX collapse woke up the bear. It woke up in a rage. Senators are really tired of having to gather every six months when another major cryptocurrency firm collapses. They're tired of the industry being unregulated and anyone being able to issue their absolutely useless tokens," said the Canadian entrepreneur. His conclusion was much softer than Charles Munger's choking calls. O'Leary called on all industry participants to cooperate with the SEC and other government agencies and said that regulated companies would attract significantly more investment than their unregulated competitors.

Bitcoin quotes are mainly supported by small and medium investors at the moment. According to the analytics company Glassnode, the number of wallets with a volume of at least 1 BTC is constantly reaching new highs. Their number has increased by 20% over the past year, approaching 982,000. As for addresses with a balance of 1000 BTC or more, it has fallen from its peak in February 2021 (about 2,500) to levels in August 2019. And now (as of 20.02.2023) there are only 2,024 such whales. However, the number of addresses with a balance of 10,000 BTC or more (worth $240 million at current prices) has consistently remained near peak levels, corresponding to November 2022 and October 2018 values. Currently, there are 115 such "mega-whale" wallets.

According to co-founder of the Gemini crypto exchange Cameron Winklevoss, Asian investors may push bitcoin prices up. Winklevoss believes that the next phase of price growth will occur in the East, and the US will have to adapt to the new conditions. According to Chainalysis, the Asia-Pacific region already ranks third in the world in terms of cryptocurrency investment volume.

Several experts believe that it is crucial for the market for bitcoin to maintain levels above the intermediate resistance at $24,500. This will allow the coin to rise to $25,000 first and then to the $29,000-30,000 range. According to analysts at Matrix, the rise to $29,000 is possible by the summer, and BTC could reach $45,000 by the end of this year. However, they note that this will happen only if the pace of consumer inflation in the US continues to slow. Matrix analysts also point out that the cryptocurrency's price has already risen above $25,000 several times in recent days, despite negative news about tightening cryptocurrency regulations in the US and Europe, which they see as a positive sign.

Speaking of their forecast, Matrix also refers to the "January effect": a price success in the first month often determines the movement of the main cryptocurrency price for the entire year. In addition, experts note that historically, 12-15 months before the next halving, bitcoin's price tests its minimums. This time, such a period fell on December 2022 - March 2023.

Well-known analyst Plan B also suggests a possible rally, estimating that bitcoin may test the $42,000 level in March. As of the time of writing (Friday evening, February 24), BTC/USD is trading around $23,100. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.059 trillion ($1.106 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 61 to 53 points over the week and returned from the Greed zone to the Neutral zone.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 01, 2023, 09:18:38 AM
Mega Super Lottery: NordFX to Give Away Another $100,000 to Traders in 2023

(https://i.imgur.com/n9eP4v7.jpg)

On March 1 of this year, broker company NordFX launched another Mega Super Lottery for its clients. The lottery will run until the end of 2023 and will offer a variety of cash prizes ranging from $250 to $5000, with a total prize pool of $100,000.

The slogan "Your 202+3 Chances to Win in 2023" was chosen for the lottery because winners will receive 202 prizes, including three super prizes of $5000 each, in addition to smaller prizes. The total prize pool of $100,000 will be divided into three parts: $40,000 will be given away in the first and second draws, and $60,000 in the third, New Year's draw.

In 2021 and 2022, NordFX clients had already won $200,000 through the lottery, and the participation terms lottery remain the same for the 2023. To become a participant, clients simply need a NordFX Pro account (or to register and open a new account), deposit at least $200, and start trading.

Clients who trade just two lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or four lots in silver) will receive a virtual lottery ticket. There is no limit to the number of tickets each participant can receive. The more deposits and the more actively clients trade, the more lottery tickets they will have and the greater their chances of winning a prize.

The chances of winning also depend on the date of receiving the lottery ticket. Tickets awarded from March 1 to June 30 will be entered into the first draw, tickets awarded from March 1 to September 30 will be entered into the second draw, and tickets awarded from March 1 to December 31, 2023, will be entered into the third, New Year's draw. Tickets received earlier will have a chance to participate in all three draws, which increases the probability of winning.

It's worth noting that trading experience and success do not affect a client's chances of winning. The draw is conducted with a random numbers’ generator, so both professional traders and beginners have an equal chance of winning.

Each draw is conducted online and recorded, and anyone with internet access can monitor it from anywhere in the world. The correctness of ticket awards can be checked on NordFX's official website, where clients can also read the detailed rules for the 2023 Lottery.

Finally, it's important to note that lottery winners receive their winnings as real money, which they can use for trading or withdraw without restrictions.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 01, 2023, 01:32:14 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/mOVZ63S.jpg)

- Regulation of the crypto market was one of the topics finance ministers and central bankers discussed at the G20 meeting chaired by India last weekend. As a result, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that regulation of the crypto industry is important, while Washington is not considering a complete ban. “It is very important to create a reliable regulatory framework. And we are working [on this] with other governments,” she said in an interview with Reuters. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva agrees with her colleague: her organization also advocates for adequate regulation of digital assets and against their complete ban.

- Michael van de Poppe, the CEO of Eight, believes that bitcoin is currently the most undervalued asset. He has released a video review in which he predicts the growth of the coin to $40,000 this year. This forecast has been made against the background of recent news, according to which inflation in the US showed its teeth again: the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE) was 4.7% against the forecast of 4.3%. It has already been said that because of this, the Fed may raise the interest rate by 50 basis points in March and not by 25 bps, as previously expected.
According to cryptocurrency screener Cryptovizor, bitcoin reached a local high on February 21, and then began to fall. However, both the aggravation of macroeconomic data and the rollback of BTC quotes failed to dampen Van de Poppe's optimism. From his point of view, a pronounced bullish divergence on the weekly chart indicates that we have already reached the bottom. What is happening now is just a bounce off the 200-week moving average and consolidating. According to the trader, a sideways movement is most likely at this stage. In the worst case scenario, BTC/USD will fall to the low of the $18,000 range, and this fall will be a great investment opportunity.
According to Van de Poppe, there is no recession at the moment, but it may begin due to the collapse of the debt market and the real estate market. But before that happens, bitcoin could rise to $40,000, as the crisis usually unfolds 6-12 months after the Fed's significant rate hike. The signal for the start of a new bull rally could be either the lifting of the mining ban in China, or the adoption of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong.

- “Despite the tumultuous events of the past year, US cryptocurrency ownership has remained largely unchanged since hitting an all-time high in early 2022. More than 50 million people in the country own cryptocurrencies, and 76% of them believe that this type of asset and blockchain technology are the future. 67% believe that the current financial system needs a major reboot. These conclusions were reached by Morning Consult experts based on the results of a survey commissioned by Coinbase.
Based on the survey results, Coinbase plans to focus on the development of the industry. The exchange intends to work with politicians and companies in the field of traditional finance, as well as launch an educational campaign explaining the role that cryptocurrencies can play in the renewal of the financial system. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has previously stated that he wants to increase the global cryptocurrency user base to one billion people.

- Investors are again showing an active interest in cryptocurrencies. According to the analytical company Glassnode, the 30-day inflow of capital into the market has exceeded the outflow for the first time in 9 months and has returned to the “green” zone. The cumulative net realized market value position has also turned positive for the first time since April 2022. Over the past nine months, the metric has shown negative values.
According to analysts, another positive indicator is the fall in the number of bitcoin whale wallets to a three-year low. This means that the asset has become more distributed and less concentrated among a handful of large holders. This option is preferable for the entire ecosystem, as it eliminates the possibility of market manipulation by several players.
Glassnode also reported On February 27 that the percentage of active BTC supply just hit an all-time high of 28.2%. This suggests that the mass adoption of cryptocurrencies is steadily increasing despite the bear market and challenging times for the global economy.

- A 51-year-old American admitted during the trial that he tried to shoot down a bitcoin ATM for the benefit of the people. Last year, Matthew K. walked into the Vapor Maven store in Jefferson City, pulled out a gun, and fired five bullets at the ATM. Returning home, he told his wife about his act and called the police himself. Matthew explained his stunt by the hatred he feels for bitcoin ATMs. The unfortunate killer said that he decided to shoot the device so that "it could no longer take money from anyone." Despite such noble intentions, the court found Matthew guilty of damaging property and sentenced him to five years of probation. (For reference: the first Bitcoin ATM appeared in the US in October 2013, and there are now more than 35,000 of them).

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of a number of books on investing, including the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, has long been a critic of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and expressed concerns about dollar devaluation. And now the writer has made a bold statement that, in his opinion, the fake dollar is leading to the decline of the American empire. This stance of Kiyosaki has drawn approval from the crypto community as it shows the benefits of bitcoin. Experts note that digital assets such as BTC, unlike fiat currencies, are not subject to inflationary pressure, since their supply is limited and predetermined by appropriate algorithms.
Recall that Kiyosaki has recently predicted that the bitcoin rate will rise to $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” he wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.

- Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said in a recent interview that he is “epically optimistic for the next three years.” In his opinion, there will be a massive adoption of cryptocurrency in 2023-2025 and its prices will grow. “This bull market cycle is going to be the biggest cycle in terms of user adoption, in terms of the cumulative increase in market capitalization, in terms of just about every other thing we care about,” the financier says. “But it won’t happen perfectly up and to the right.” Also, “I'm actually optimistic about regulation,” Matt Hougan added.

– Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has changed his mind about bitcoin over the past few years. He called BTC "digital gold" in 2018. However, he said a year later that the fall of the crypto market reminded him of the dot-com crisis of the early 2000s.
Steve Wozniak was once again bullish this week. He predicted a BTC surge to $100,000. In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency has a huge potential and will increase in value in the coming years. “Currently, only a small percentage of the world’s population owns bitcoin, so the infrastructure is expanding at an extremely slow pace. However, its adoption will accelerate in the future, both the number of BTC holders and users of projects deployed in the DeFi and NFT markets will increase,” Wozniak believes. At the same time, the co-founder of Apple admitted that he  has less than 1 BTC, and he does not plan to make money on investments in cryptocurrency.

- The government of Ras Al Khaimah (RAK), one of the UAE's emirates, plans to create a free zone for companies in the digital asset industry. The National News writes about this. According to the statement, RAK Digital Assets Oasis will become a hub for unregulated activities of industry participants. Applications will be accepted as early as Q2 2023.

- The correlation of cryptocurrencies with US stocks and macroeconomic indicators is weakening against the backdrop of the current flat movement in the price of bitcoin. It is reported by The Block, referring to the opinion of analysts from the investment company Bernstein. According to them, the market is balancing between bulls and bears, "waiting for further catalysts", and its susceptibility to events in the world of traditional finance "is not the same as before." The first cryptocurrency's correlation with the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen from 0.94 to 0.58 since early February.
The analysts also point out that the hurdles created by regulators are bearish for the market, as is the lack of institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, the weakening of the correlation with the stock market is a bullish signal.

- The crypto market performed much better at the beginning of 2023 than most of its participants and experts expected. These are the findings of Bank of America researchers. They have published a report in which they emphasize that the market capitalization of digital coins and tokens has grown by 42% to $1.1 trillion. At the same time, Bank of America strategists remain cautious about further capitalization growth, as high dollar interest rates could put serious pressure on digital assets.

- We wrote earlier that Charles Munger, vice chairman of the holding company Berkshire Hathaway and Warren Buffett's right-hand man, called “idiots” anyone who disagrees with him regarding a complete ban on cryptocurrencies. The 99-year-old billionaire said that crypto assets are nothing more than gambling and called them “rat poison”. He also urged the US authorities to follow in the footsteps of China and ban cryptocurrencies.
And now he received an answer from Elon Musk. The Tesla founder said that Munger considered investing in the company in 2008, when it was valued at just $200 million, but declined. Now, Tesla's current capitalization is about 3,000 times that amount. In this regard, Chris Burniske, an analyst and former head of cryptography at ARK Invest, noted caustically that Munger knows exactly how to miss the chance to make 1000x profit.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 02, 2023, 12:37:46 PM
February 2023 Results: Euro and Gold Bring Tens of Thousands of Dollars in Profits to NordFX Traders

(https://i.imgur.com/v0gjGUG.jpg)

The brokerage firm NordFX has released the results of its clients' trading performance for February 2023. In addition, the company evaluated its social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits obtained by its IB partners.

The top spot in the ranking of the most successful traders was taken by a client from East Asia, account number 1677XXX, who earned a profit of 49,130 USD on trades, with the majority conducted on EUR/USD and USD/CHF pairs. The second place belongs to the owner of account number 1597XXX from South Asia, who earned 37,244 USD in a month, with the source of their earnings coming from operations with gold (XAU/USD).

The XAU/USD currency pair allows NordFX traders to occupy positions in the top three more often than any other pair. This time, thanks to this precious metal, not only the second but also the third position on the podium of honour went to a client from South Asia, account number 1678XXX, whose profit in February was 23,994 USD. It is worth noting that this trader also showed an impressive result on their other account (number 1624XXX), earning almost 18,000 USD in profit. Therefore, in total, they may well switch places with their compatriot in second and third place in the top three.

In passive investment services:

- In CopyTrading, the signal provider KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K continues to increase profits and delight fans. In 665 days, it has increased profits by 310%. However, despite its relative stability, it should be noted that this provider suffered a serious setback last November, with the maximum drawdown on this signal approaching 67%. This can be considered an extraordinary situation, but it is always necessary to keep in mind that trading in financial markets is a risky activity, and no one is immune to such events.
Fans of algorithmic trading may be interested in a startup called ATFOREXACADEMY ALGO 1. In just 68 days, this signal showed a return of 171%, although its drawdown was not small, 38%.
- In the PAMM service, the two leading accounts, which suffered significant losses last November, continue to recover. To the credit of both managers, they did not allow their deposits to be completely wiped out, closed losing positions, and now, albeit very cautiously, are moving forward again. The profit for KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA at the moment is 81%, and for TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3 it is 50%. The drawdown, except for that fateful November, looks quite moderate and does not exceed 20%.

Among NordFX's IB partners, representatives from Asian regions made it into the top three as well:
- The largest commission of 5,827 USD was credited to a partner from South Asia with account number 434XXX.
- Next is a partner from West Asia with account number 1645XXX, who received 5,684 USD.
- Finally, another partner from West Asia with account number 1652XXX closes the top three leaders, receiving 5,337 USD as compensation.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 04, 2023, 05:39:44 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 06 - 10, 2023


EUR/USD: Pause in the 1.0600 Zone

(https://i.imgur.com/nxyRuJc.jpg)

On Thursday, March 02, the DXY dollar index broke again through the bar at 105.00 points but could not stay there. As usual, the dollar was supported by an increase in US government bond yields. The yield on 10-year securities rose to its high since November 10 at 4.09%, the yield on 2-year securities rose to 4.91% and updated its maximum since 2007. The revision of US labor market statistics in Q4 2022 and the ISM Manufacturing Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector also supported the US currency. On the other hand, the dollar was pressured by the yuan, which is getting stronger against the backdrop of macro-economic statistics from China. The PMI manufacturing index in China was the highest since 2012. Activity in the service sector has also increased, and the Chinese real estate market has stabilized.

However, the main factor determining the dynamics of the USD is still the expectation of the Fed's further actions in an attempt to curb inflation. Since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose more than expected in January, reaching 6.4%, market participants started talking about the fact that the regulator may raise the rate not by 25 basis points (bp) in March, but immediately by 50. (At the moment, CME's FedWatch tool estimates the probability of such a move at 23%).

This forecast was supported by hawkish comments by some FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members. The head of the Atlanta Fed, Rafael Bostic, said that the key interest rate should eventually be raised to 5.00-5.25% and kept at this level until 2024. Minneapolis Fed chief Neil Kashkari has yet to decide whether he will vote for a 25bp or 50bp rate hike in March, but hinted that the Fed's own dot plot could be raised. At the same time, both officials stressed the need to fight inflation, emphasizing that a strong labor market and the US economy are able to withstand the pressure caused by the aggressive monetary policy of the Central Bank. However, Rafael Bostic then softened his hawkish mood and said that the regulator may suspend the rate hike cycle in the summer. After that, the dollar slightly retreated from its gains.

Some analysts do not rule out that the peak USD rate will reach 5.5% in September, and maybe even 6.0%. There is no question of reducing it at the end of the year at all. And these expectations play on the side of the US currency, which is confirmed by the futures market. But when talking about EUR/USD, one cannot focus only on the actions of the Fed. They don't sleep on the other side of the Atlantic either. Inflation data for a number of European countries suggest that the ECB will also be forced to maintain a hawkish position for longer than previously expected. The opening of the Chinese economy could put pressure not only on the US, but also on Europe, making it difficult for both regulators to curb inflation. Therefore, market participants expect further tightening of monetary policy on the part of the European Central Bank, which currently keeps the pair in the 1.0600 area.

Last week's finish was at 1.0632. At the time of writing this review (the evening of March 03), the analysts' forecast looks as uncertain as the flat quotes of EUR/USD: 50% of them have taken a neutral position, 30% of experts are counting on further strengthening of the dollar, and the remaining 20% side with the euro. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% are colored red, 15% are green and 35% are neutral gray. Among trend indicators, 35% recommend selling, 65% - buying. The nearest support for the pair is located at 1.0575-1.0605, then there are levels and zones 1.5000-1.0530, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0300 and 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will meet resistance in the area of 1.0680-1.0710, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0930, 1.0985-1.1030.

There will be quite a lot of economic statistics and events in the coming week. Data on retail sales in the Eurozone will be released on Monday, March 06. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the US Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Also, there will be data on retail sales in Germany, Eurozone GDP and employment in the US on Wednesday, March 08. The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the US and the inflation rate (CPI) in China will be known on Thursday. Friday 10 March will show what is happening with consumer prices in Germany. We are traditionally waiting for a portion of important statistics from the US labor market on the same day, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP).

GBP/USD: Sentiment Color Is Red

GBP/USD has been in a sideways channel for the second week in a row, although it has demonstrated rather high volatility. The range of its fluctuations (1.1942-1.2147) exceeded 200 points, and the last chord of the week was placed in the middle of this channel, at the level of 1.2040. We described above what gives strength to the dollar. The British currency received some support from information received last week that an agreement was reached between the UK and the EU on the Northern Ireland Protocol. Trade disputes have now been resolved, and while this is positive for the UK economy as a whole, many experts believe that the positive effect of this agreement for the pound will be short-term.

Quotes of the pair are still determined by the actions of the Central Banks. And the head of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, speaking on Wednesday, March 01, further fogged the issue., saying that the final decision on the prospects for the monetary policy of the British Central Bank has not yet been made, and that the regulator should be flexible in the coming months so as not to scare the markets.

Experts' median forecast for the near future is as follows: 70% of experts vote for the further weakening of the pound and the fall of GBP/USD, only 10% expect the pair to grow, and 20% prefer to refrain from forecasts. Among the trend indicators on D1, the balance of power is 65% to 35% in favor of the greens. The picture is different among oscillators. The reds have a convincing advantage here, 70%, 10% side with the greens, and 20% have taken a neutral position. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.1985-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1925, 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720 and 1.1600. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at the levels 1.2055, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

As for next week's economic calendar, no important macro data from the UK is expected until Friday March 10, when UK GDP and industrial production data for January are released.

USD/JPY: Patience and Only Patience

USD/JPY rose to 137.10 on Thursday, March 02 after the release of US economic data. This is the highest level since December 20, 2022. The yen was opposed by the divergence between Fed and BoJ politicians, as well as the yield spread between 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which rose to its highs in March since November 2022.

Another blow to the Japanese currency was dealt by Kazuo Ueda, who was elected as the new head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). His position only exacerbated the disappointment of those who hoped for major changes in the regulator's monetary policy. Investors have failed to pick up a clear "hawkish" signal in his speeches, which would have spurred the resumption of speculative demand for the yen, which was already weakening against the background of the growth of DXY and the rise in yields of 10-year treasuries.

USD/JPY met the beginning of February at the level of 130.08, and now it ends at 135.84 on March 03. However, a number of experts do not lose hope that the Japanese currency will strengthen. “Since the dollar peaked at the end of September, the yen became the second best-performing G10 currency by the end of January,” economists at MUFG Bank wrote. - Some backtracking in this context is quite understandable. But we believe that inflation will decline and yields around the world are close to peaks, which indicates a recovery in the yen, especially since the policy of the Bank of Japan will also change.”

Strategists from HSBC, the largest financial conglomerate, echo their colleagues. “We will remain yen bulls in the medium term,” their forecast sounds, "but we suspect that it will take some patience for the currency to gain independent strength thanks to the Bank of Japan. For now, USD/JPY is likely to remain influenced by developments in the US, where we see the balance of risk tilting towards a weaker dollar.”

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Friday March 10. It will last be chaired by the former head, Haruhiko Kuroda, after which he will hand the reins over to Kazuo Ueda. Analysts at JPMorgan (like most others) do not expect BoJ policy to change or signal correction at this meeting. It is unlikely that Kuroda will slam the door loudly when he leaves; most likely, the interest rate will remain at the same negative level of -0.1%. Therefore, yen supporters can only follow HSBC's advice and be patient.

So, as already mentioned, a number of experts expect a serious strengthening of the Japanese currency in the future. In addition to MUFG Bank and HSBC strategists listed above, BNP Paribas Research has a similar position, while Danske Bank economists predict that USD/JPY rate will fall to the level of 125.00 in three months. In their opinion, in the event of a tightening of monetary policy, positive yields in Japan could stimulate the repatriation of funds by local investors, as a result of which USD/JPY will be around 121.00 by the end of 2023. But these are still rather shaky assumptions, although 60% of analysts agree with them. As for the immediate prospects, only 10% of experts are counting on the movement of the pair to the south at the moment, 45% are looking in the opposite direction, and the remaining 45% stay neutral.

Among the oscillators on D1, 85% point north, the remaining 15% look in the opposite direction. For trend indicators, 65% look north and 35% look south. The nearest support level is located in the zone 134.90-135.20, followed by the levels and zones 134.40, 134.00, 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25 130.50, 129.70-130.00.  Levels and resistance zones are 136.00-136.30, 136.70-137.10, 137.50, 139.00-139.35, 140.60, 143.75.

Among the events of the coming week, in addition to the above-mentioned meeting of the Bank of Japan, the calendar includes Thursday, March 9, when the country's GDP data for Q4 2022 will be published.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Awaiting a New Catalyst

The first sentence of the previous review was: “Bitcoin is under pressure, but it is holding up”. Starting the current review, we can only repeat: bitcoin is under pressure, but it is holding up. Let's talk about global news now. The good news is that the leading regulators will not completely ban cryptocurrencies. The bad news is that regulatory pressure on the industry will continue to grow.

The regulation of the crypto market was one of the topics that finance ministers and central bank representatives discussed at the G20 meeting. As a result, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that regulation of the crypto industry is important, while Washington is not considering a complete ban. “It is very important to create a reliable regulatory framework. And we are working [on this] with other governments,” she said in an interview with Reuters. IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva agrees with her colleague: her organization also advocates for adequate regulation of digital assets and against their complete ban.

It should be noted here that the increase in regulatory control, while forcing a number of players out of their comfort zone, could ultimately have a positive impact on the industry, relieving shocks like the collapse of FTX. In addition, clear rules will attract a significant number of new institutional investors, raising the capitalization of the crypto market to unprecedented heights.

But this is in the future. In the present, the “herd” of whales (more than 1,000 BTC) continues to decline, reaching a three-year low of 1,663 individuals. There were almost 2,500 of them at its peak in February 2021. And this despite the fact that the crypto market showed a much better result at the beginning of 2023 than most of its participants and experts expected. These are the findings of Bank of America researchers.

At the moment, bitcoin quotes are supported mainly by small and medium-sized investors. According to analytics company Glassnode, the number of wallets with a volume of 1 BTC is constantly updating highs, approaching 1 million. The 30-day capital inflow to the market exceeded the outflow for the first time in 9 months and returned to the "green" zone. The cumulative net realized market value position also turned positive for the first time since April 2022 (the metric has been negative for the past nine months). Long-term holders have also updated their four-month high in savings.

By the way, according to Glassnode analysts, the drop in the number of whale wallets can be considered a positive factor. This means that the asset has become more distributed and less concentrated among a handful of large holders. This option is preferable for the entire ecosystem, as it eliminates the possibility of market manipulation by several players.

Another positive factor, according to some experts, is the weakening of the correlation of cryptocurrencies with US stocks and macroeconomic indicators. The flagship cryptocurrency was moving in a narrow range of $23,000-24,000 for almost the entire past week, and it sank a little only on Friday, March 03. Perhaps this was facilitated by the news that another representative of the crypto industry, Silvergate Bank from California (USA), was on the verge of bankruptcy.

According to analysts at the investment company Bernstein, the correlation of the first cryptocurrency with the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen from 0.94 to 0.58 since early February. According to them, the market is balancing between bulls and bears, "waiting for further catalysts", and its susceptibility to events in the world of traditional finance "is not the same as before."

We could also observe a weakening and then strengthening of the correlation with the stock market last August-September. And it is quite possible that the current “decoupling” of BTC from stock indices is a temporary phenomenon. It is clear that the main concerns for all risky assets are related to the continued increase in the key rate by the US Federal Reserve, which could become a catalyst for the resumption of the bearish trend of BTC/USD.

The Eight CEO Michael van de Poppe, a well-known trader, believes that bitcoin is currently the most undervalued asset. He has released a video review in which he predicts the growth of the coin to $40,000 this year. At the same time, both worsening macroeconomic data and the forecast for the Fed's rate failed to dampen Van de Poppe's optimism. From his point of view, a pronounced bullish divergence on the weekly chart indicates that we have already reached the bottom. What is happening now is just a bounce off the 200-week moving average and consolidating. According to the trader, a sideways movement is most likely at this stage. In the worst-case scenario, BTC/USD will fall to the low of the $18,000 range, and this fall will be a great investment opportunity.

According to Van de Poppe, there is no recession at the moment, but it may begin due to the collapse of the debt market and the real estate market. But before that happens, bitcoin could rise to $40,000, as the crisis usually unfolds 6-12 months after the Fed's significant rate hike. The signal for the start of a new bull rally could be either the lifting of the mining ban in China, or the adoption of cryptocurrency in Hong Kong.

Global financial disaster is also predicted by Robert Kiyosaki, author of a number of books on investing, including the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad. He has long been a critic of the Fed's monetary policy and has expressed concern about the devaluation of the dollar. And now the economics writer has made a bold statement that, in his opinion, the fake dollar is leading to the decline of the American empire. This stance of Kiyosaki has drawn approval from the crypto community as it shows the benefits of bitcoin. Experts note that digital assets such as BTC, unlike fiat currencies, are not subject to inflationary pressure, since their supply is limited and predetermined by appropriate algorithms.

Recall that Kiyosaki has recently predicted that the bitcoin rate will rise to $500,000 by 2025. “A giant crash is coming. Depression is possible. The Fed has been forced to print billions in counterfeit money. Gold at $5,000, silver at $500, and bitcoin at $500,000 by 2025,” he wrote. And he added that gold and silver are the money of the gods, and bitcoin is like a dollar for ordinary people.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, said in a recent interview that he is “epically optimistic for the next three years.” In his opinion, there will be a massive adoption of cryptocurrency in 2023-2025 and its prices will grow. “This bull market cycle is going to be the biggest cycle in terms of user adoption, in terms of the cumulative increase in market capitalization, in terms of just about every other thing we care about,” the financier says. “But it won’t happen perfectly up and to the right.” Also, “I'm actually optimistic about regulation,” Matt Hougan added.

Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak was also bullish last week. In his opinion, the main cryptocurrency has a huge potential and will increase in value in the coming years, reaching $100,000.

In the meantime, at the time of writing this review (Friday evening, March 03), BTC/USD is trading in the $22,250 zone. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.024 trillion ($1.059 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 53 to 50 points in a week and is in the very center of the Neutral zone.

And finally, news that can be attributed to our crypto life hacks section. It concerns those who do not like the regulatory press, which we talked about at the beginning of the review. So, it became known that the government of Ras Al Khaimah (RAK), one of the UAE's emirates, plans to create a free zone for companies in the digital asset industry. According to the announcement, RAK Digital Assets Oasis will become a hub for unregulated industry activity, with applications open as early as Q2 2023.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 09, 2023, 12:27:36 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/x8TWg29.jpg)

- Numerous studies show that despite the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, the number of active female investors is only growing every year. The volume of crypto assets traded by women increased from 15.2% in 2021 to 18.5% in 2022. And this happened at a time when the market was facing massive bankruptcies, liquidations and tightening of monetary policy by Central Banks.
According to statistics, female investors choose bitcoin in 21.6% of cases, followed by Tether USD with 21%. Ethereum, Shiba Inu and Dogecoin have also become popular assets. The most active age group is between 25 and 35 years old. The average net worth of a female investor in the UK is estimated at £9,650. And women cite the desire for financial independence as a key reason for investing in digital assets.

- Egyptian authorities arrested 29 people, including 13 foreign nationals, who stole more than $600,000 using the HoggPool scam network. The attackers launched an online platform in August 2022 and lured customers with the promise of “great financial gains” from cryptocurrency transactions. HoggPool went out of business in February, its organizers disappeared with clients' money. But then, the attackers were arrested when they reappeared with the intention of launching the Riot platform.
Back in early 2018, Egypt's chief mufti, Sheikh Shawki Allam, banned trading in crypto assets. It is illegal to engage in such activities in Egypt: you can get a prison term and a fine of up to $325,000. Despite this, Egyptian interest in cryptocurrencies remains high due to economic problems in the country.

- Michael Van De Poppe, CEO and founder of Eight Global, noted the importance of the next few weeks for bitcoin and allowed it to fall below $20,000.
Digital gold is holding in the $22,000-25,000 range so far. Crypto market capitalization has tested the highs of 2017, with the result that, according to van de Poppe, he is now “looking for a higher bottom.” According to the expert’s forecast, if the indicator falls below the 200-week moving average, the price of bitcoin will fall to $19,700.
 “Capitalization could drop to $860 million, pulling the entire market down by another 15%,” he warned.

- The executives of S&P Solutions, which operated under the Bitcoin of America brand, were accused of manufacturing and installing unlicensed Bitcoin ATMs used for fraud. According to the US Attorney's Office, the company's ATMs were not protected against money laundering, which is why they were actively used by various intruders. “S&P Solutions received a 20% commission for each transfer and continued to do so even after learning about fraudulent transactions,” the prosecutor’s office noted.
For reference, Bitcoin of America operates over 2,600 cryptocurrency ATMs in 35 states and is the fourth largest manufacturer of these devices in the country.

- The lack of clear regulation of the crypto industry in the United States threatens that companies will go abroad and offshore. This, in turn, will have a negative impact on users who “will remain vulnerable to fraudsters.” This opinion was expressed in an interview with Bloomberg by Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He emphasized the importance of adopting a legislative framework and clear regulation of cryptocurrencies, which, in his opinion, will contribute to the growth of the industry. Garlinghouse cited Ripple's legal battle with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as an example of the imperfection of the law, which showed how much the United States lags behind other countries in this direction.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, believes that the bitcoin rally will start at a time when the global economy is in an oil crisis. In his opinion, a sharp increase in hydrocarbon prices will create conditions for the growth of digital assets and, first of all, bitcoin.
Hayes's logic is as follows: against the background of geopolitical tensions in the world, demand for energy resources will increase, as oil exporters are likely to reduce production. In this situation, the United States, as a leading economic power, will have to increase its own oil production. The Fed will need to ease the monetary rate to stimulate business activity in the energy sector. As soon as the regulator starts lowering rates, capital will return to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. In addition, the former head of BitMEX recalled that the limited supply of BTC will also contribute to its growth, as the US dollar will lose ground.
For the record: Arthur Hayes was charged with violating the Bank Secrecy Act in 2022 and sentenced to six months of house arrest, two years of probation, and a $10 million fine.

- More than 90% of bitcoins are currently in circulation, but the asset's inflation rate has dropped significantly in recent years. It is now at least three times lower than that of the US dollar. This allows BTC to act as a possible hedge against capital depreciation and economic uncertainty. According to the WooBull analytical platform, the inflation rate of the first cryptocurrency has been steadily decreasing since its creation in 2009 and amounted to 1.79% as of March 4. At the same time, the same indicator for USD reached 6.4% in 2023, which is 3.57 times higher than that of BTC.
The decrease in bitcoin inflation is due to the asset's deflationary model, supported by halvings, which reduce the speed of coin mining and halve miners' rewards. Experts also believe that this figure remains low due to the decentralization of BTC, which avoids most of the political and economic risks typical for the US dollar. On the contrary, the USD inflation rate will grow. This is primarily due to an excessive increase in the money supply, a decrease in demand and/or a reduction in production.

- Nicholas Merten, a well-known crypto analyst and presenter of the DataDash YouTube channel, has not ruled out a new major fall in ethereum. In his opinion, if we take into account previous bear markets when forecasting, ETH could fall by more than 90% from its historical high, that is, find itself at the level of several hundred dollars.
“ETH/USD has a long way to go. “We're only 67% from the record,” Merten says. “And if we see again what we had in previous bear markets, say, a 92 percent correction or a 94 percent correction, then the price of ETH will drop to several hundred dollars. The difference is huge, from $870 to about $500.”
Merten added that the current ETH price action looks very weak, as the altcoin has been stuck in a fairly narrow range for several months and cannot overcome the significant resistance at $1,800.

- Analysts at Santiment have identified massive negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. Experts find it difficult to establish the main reason for achieving such high levels. The researchers have noted that the cryptocrash hashtag trended on Twitter long before the 5% drop in the price of bitcoin, which occurred last Friday, March 03. Some members of the crypto community attributed the negative sentiment to problems with the Silvergate crypto bank and the recent SEC statement that all altcoins could be classified as securities.
The good news for investors, according to Santiment analysts, is that the total negative led to a noticeable rebound in prices previously. Felix Zulauf, the founder of hedge fund Zulauf Consulting, has suggested that bitcoin will move into a clear bullish rally sometime in late spring. The expert does not rule out that the asset could reach $100,000 on a sharp uptrend. He emphasized that bitcoin is now in the initial phase of a bullish cycle, which is confirmed by numerous on-chain metrics.

- Despite the bearish dynamics, Credible Crypto experts also remain optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the flagship crypto asset. In their opinion, bitcoin may update its historical extremum this year. However, the asset will face several hurdles before a steady bullish trend begins. Credible Crypto agrees that last year's bankruptcies are having a negative impact on the industry. However, about 73% of all BTC coins are concentrated in the hands of experienced holders who can withstand difficult times.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 11, 2023, 12:51:55 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 13 - 17, 2023


EUR/USD: USA Labor Market Stops USD

Jerome Powell played on the dollar side last week. Of course, the Fed Chairman knew that markets expected an interest rate increase of 25 basis points (bps) from the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. But he did not rule out that his organization could take a more decisive step in an effort to curb inflation and raise it by 50 bp on March 22 at once. Moreover, it had been earlier expected that the rate would reach 5.00-5.25% at the peak. Now Powell and his colleagues do not rule out that its maximum value will be 5.50%. (According to Commerzbank strategists, even an increase to 6.00% is possible).

And so, to avoid a shock, the head of the Fed decided to prepare the markets for this in advance. His speech to the US Congress on Tuesday, March 7, was extremely hawkish, as a result of which the DXY Dollar Index updated its 2023 highs, soaring to 105.86, and EUR/USD lost more than 170 points, finding a local bottom at 1.0523. The probability of a 50bp rate hike in March rose to 70% (it was 23-30% a week ago, and the markets estimated it at only 9% a month ago).

However, the dollar could not build on its success, and EUR/USD turned north in the middle of the week. Data from the US labor market helped to lose ground. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits published on Thursday March 09 amounted to 211K against the expected 195K and 190K a month earlier. This indicator exceeded the 200K mark for the first time since the first half of January and reached its maximum since the end of December 2022. In addition, short-term speculators began to take profits on the USD ahead of the report on the US labor market for February, published on Friday, March 10. And they did the right thing, as the dollar continued to retreat. The report showed that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) was 311K, which is more than the forecast of 205K, but significantly less than in January - 503K. Together with an increase in unemployment by 3.6% (forecast 3.4% and 3.4% in January), these data indicate a cooling of the country's economy, which in turn may cool down the hawkish ardor of FOMC members. This was confirmed by the dynamics of EUR/USD, which soared to a height of 1.0700 just a few hours after the publication of the report.

As for the euro area, the macro data looked neutral last week. Thus, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany, the locomotive of the European economy, remained at the same level and fully met the forecasts - 8.7% in annual terms.

The last chord of the week sounded at 1.0638. And despite the fall of the dollar at the end of the week, 80% of analysts expect it to strengthen in the near future, the remaining 20% have taken a neutral position, not a single vote has been cast for the growth of the euro. Among the oscillators on D1, 25% are red, another 25% are green, and 50% are neutral gray. Among trend indicators, 80% recommend buying, 20% - selling. The nearest support for the pair is located at 1.0600-1.0620, then there are levels and zones 1.5000-1.0530, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0300 and 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will meet resistance in the area of 1.0650, 1.0700, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0930, 1.0985-1.1030.

There will be quite a lot of economic statistics next week. Moreover, it will certainly play a very important role in the decisions of both the Fed and the ECB. Thus, data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the US will be received on Tuesday, March 14. Data on retail sales in this country, as well as the US Producer Price Index (PPI), will be released the next day. The European Central Bank will decide on the euro interest rate on Thursday, March 16, which is expected to be raised by 50 bp., from 2.50% to 3.00%. Of course, the subsequent comments of the ECB management on monetary policy are also of absolute interest to market participants. And finally, the value of CPI in the Eurozone will become known at the very end of the working week, on March 17.

GBP/USD: Volatility Is High, the Result Is Zero

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The result of the past five days for GBP/USD, despite the volatility of 310 points, ended up being close to zero. The pair finished the working week at the level of 1.2025, returning to the central zone of the side channel 1.1920-1.2145. The reason for this dynamics is the same as for EUR/USD, since both pairs were actively reacting to what was happening in the US. There were no important macro statistics from the United Kingdom all week until Friday, March 10, when the data on GDP and industrial production for January were released.

The first indicator showed an increase from -0.5% to +0.3% with a forecast of +0.1%, the second one, on the contrary, fell. UK manufacturing output fell from 0.0% to -0.4% in January against the forecast of -0.1%, while total industrial output was -0.3% m/m versus -0.2% and +0.3% expected in December. Thus, the data on GDP added optimism to the bulls on the pound, while the data on industrial production reduced it slightly.

According to Commerzbank economists, the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to help the British currency. Recall that the head of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, speaking on Wednesday, March 01, further fogged the issue, saying that the final decision on the prospects for the monetary policy of the British Central Bank has not yet been made, and that the regulator should be flexible in the coming months so as not to scare the markets. And as long as this regulator sticks to its rather cautious stance, unlike the Fed and the ECB, the pound is likely to remain under downward pressure. The Bank of England, instead of actively fighting high inflation, is likely to act as a catch-up, which will lead GBP/USD to further decline.

Experts' median forecast for the near term is similar to the forecast for EUR/USD: 75% of experts vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of GBP/USD, the remaining 25% prefer to abstain from forecasts. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 35% vote in favor of greens, another 35% in favor of reds, and 30% in favor of neutral grays. Among the trend indicators, a clear advantage is on the side of the greens: 75% to 25% in their favor. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.1985-1.2000, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1925, 1.1840, 1.1800, 1.1720 and 1.1600. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at the levels 1.2055, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2145, 1.2185-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

As for the release of British macro statistics, next week's calendar includes Tuesday, March 14, when data on the unemployment rate and wages in the United Kingdom will be received.

USD/JPY: The Dollar Decides Everything

The meeting of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was held at the very end of last week, on Friday, March 10, which was chaired for the last time by the former head, Haruhiko Kuroda. It went exactly as expected: the Japanese Central Bank did not change the parameters of its ultra-stimulating monetary policy, the interest rate again remained at the previous negative level of -0.1%.

Haruhiko Kuroda, speaking at his last press conference and commenting on the results of the last meeting of the Central Bank, said that the positive effect of monetary policy easing has significantly exceeded its side effects. At the same time, he noted that the regulator "will not hesitate to continue easing monetary policy if necessary" and that "it is important to continue to ease it in order to stimulate companies to raise wages." Kazuo Uedu, the new CEO of BoJ, is likely to follow his predecessor's precepts. At least, one should not expect any sharp steps from him.

At the moment, the American currency is decisive in this, as in other dollar pairs. After the release of data on the US labor market, the dollar fell to new lows around the world, while futures for US stock indices turned positive. If USD/JPY was trading at 137.90 on Wednesday, March 08, it found the bottom at 134.10 on March 10, and ended the week after a correction at 135.05.

As for the immediate prospects, 75% of experts vote for the pair's movement to the south at the moment, 25% point in the opposite direction. Among the oscillators on D1, 25% point north, 40% look in the opposite direction, and the remaining 35% look east. For trend indicators, 40% point north, and 60% look south. The nearest support level is located at 134.75 zone, followed by levels and zones 134.00-134.35, 133.60, 132.80-133.20, 131.85-132.00, 131.25 130.50, 129.70-130.00.  Levels and resistance zones are 135.15, 136.00-136.30, 136.70-137.10, 137.50, 139.00-139.35, 140.60, 143.75.

Among the events of the upcoming week, we can mention the publication of the Report on the last meeting of the Bank of Japan on Wednesday, March 15. Although, this document is unlikely to make a serious impression on market participants.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: It's Really Bad. Will it get worse?

Bitcoin continues to be under pressure from an avalanche of bad news. A record $94 million in bullish positions for 2023 was liquidated on Thursday, March 10 alone. Analysts at Santiment are recording massive negative sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. The gloomy mood of players and investors has been influenced by:

1. Liquidation of Silvergate crypto bank. After the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on March 8, Silvergate Capital Corp., the American company that manages this bank, announced its intention to curtail its activities and voluntarily liquidate it. Given Silvergate's impressive customer base, this could cause a domino effect similar to last year's.

2. Potential U.S. government sale of $1 billion in bitcoin.

3. Possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, which has collapsed the quotes of all risky assets, including stocks and cryptocurrencies.

4. Continued crackdown on crypto exchanges. On March 09, the New York prosecutor's office filed a lawsuit against KuCoin, due to the lack of registration of this exchange in the United States as a securities broker. The fact is that Attorney General Letitia James, as well as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, consider altcoins to be securities.

5. And finally, as icing on the cake, the proposals of the US President Biden's administration to ban crypto companies from tax maneuvers and to establish a 30% electricity tax for miners. A tax maneuver is a financial transaction when a company, with an unrecorded loss, first sells crypto assets and immediately buys them again, which reduces the amount of tax. The introduction of a 30% tax on electricity can deal a crushing blow not only to American miners, but also to the industry as a whole.

In our opinion, there is plenty of bad news for one week. Now let's try to add at least a few tablespoons of honey to this barrel of tar. According to Credible Crypto experts, at the moment, about 73% of all BTC coins are concentrated in the hands of experienced holders who are used to taking a hit and able to withstand the most severe crypto frosts. And Santiment reminds that such a total negative led earlier to a noticeable upward rebound in prices.

Eight Global CEO Michael Van De Poppe noted the importance of the next few weeks for bitcoin. “Capitalization could drop to $860 million, dragging the entire market down with it,” he warned. According to the expert's forecast, the price of bitcoin may fall to $19,700. Recall that he said just recently that in the worst case, the bottom could be even lower, at the level of $18,000, after which the coin will go up and could reach $40,000 this year.

Felix Zulauf, founder of hedge fund Zulauf Consulting, has suggested that bitcoin will head into a clear bull run sometime in late spring. The expert does not rule out that the asset could reach $100,000 on a sharp uptrend. Despite the bearish dynamics, Credible Crypto experts also remain optimistic about the medium-term prospects for the flagship crypto asset. They agree with Felix Zulauf that bitcoin may reach its all-time high this year. However, before a sustainable bull trend begins, the asset, in their opinion, will face several obstacles. (We have already listed five of them above)

Arthur Hayes, former CEO and co-founder of the BitMEX crypto exchange, believes that the bitcoin rally will start at a time when the global economy is in an oil crisis. In his opinion, a sharp increase in hydrocarbon prices will create conditions for the growth of digital assets and, first of all, bitcoin.

Hayes's logic is as follows: against the background of geopolitical tensions in the world, demand for energy resources will increase, as oil exporters are likely to reduce production. In this situation, the United States, as a leading economic power, will have to increase its own oil production. The Fed will need to ease the monetary rate to stimulate business activity in the energy sector. As soon as the regulator starts lowering interest rates, capital will return to risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. In addition, the former head of BitMEX recalled that the limited supply of BTC will also contribute to its growth, as the US dollar will lose ground.

It is appropriate here to cite data from the analytical platform WooBull, according to which the inflation rate of bitcoin is now at least three times lower than that of the US dollar. This allows BTC to act as a possible hedge against capital depreciation and economic uncertainty. Statistics show that the inflation rate of the first cryptocurrency has been steadily declining since its inception in 2009 and amounted to 1.79% as of March 04. At the same time, the same indicator for USD reached 6.4% in 2023, which is 3.57 times higher than that of BTC.

The decrease in bitcoin inflation is due to the asset's deflationary model, supported by halvings, which reduce the speed of coin mining and halve miners' rewards. Experts also believe that this indicator remains low due to the decentralization of BTC, which avoids most of the political and economic risks typical of the US dollar, whose inflation rate, on the contrary, will increase. This is primarily due to an excessive increase in the money supply, a decrease in demand and/or a reduction in production.

In the meantime, at the time of writing the review (March 10, 23:00 NordFX server time), BTC/USD is trading in the $20,070 zone. (the report on employment in the US has slightly supported the quotes). The total capitalization of the crypto market for the week fell below the psychologically important level of $1 trillion and is $0.937 trillion ($1.024 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 50 to 34 points in a week and moved from the Neutral zone to the Fear zone.

The forecast made by well-known cryptanalyst and host of DataDash YouTube channel Nicholas Merten causes fear as well. He did not rule out a new major drop in ethereum. According to the specialist, if we take into account previous bear markets when forecasting, ETH could fall by more than 90% from its historical high, that is, find itself at the level of several hundred dollars. “ETH/USD has a long way to go. “We're only 67% from the record,” Merten says. “And if we see again what we had in previous bear markets, say, a 92 percent correction or a 94 percent correction, the price of ETH will drop to several hundred dollars. The difference is huge, from $870 to about $500.”

We usually try to end our review on an optimistic note. But what if after a long crypto winter, instead of spring, we'll get another harsh winter? Although, let's still hope that the crypto calendar will be directly correlated with the regular calendar. And it is now the first month of spring, which should be followed by a warm sunny summer.


NordFX Analytical Group


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 15, 2023, 02:37:36 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/k9jZT3m.jpg)

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur, has once again called for investing in gold, silver and bitcoin amid problems with US banks. In his opinion, regulators will print “even more counterfeit money” to save the “sick economy”. “Take care of yourself. Crash landing is ahead,” Kiyosaki wrote.
Kiyosaki made his announcement amid the recent collapse of major US banks Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, which were taken over by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The latter, together with the Treasury and the US Federal Reserve, said that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will have access to all funds in full. In addition, the Fed announced the creation of the Bank Term Funding Program for banks that may face similar problems (BTFP). $25 billion will be allocated for this purpose. Interestingly, both of these banks were actively used by cryptocurrency companies as fiat gateways.

- Aggressive rate hikes by the Fed and balance sheet cuts have led to bank failures in the US. According to a number of experts, this has become an excellent advertisement for bitcoin, the rate of which is expected to skyrocket. Observers draw parallels to the 2013 Cyprus crisis, which highlighted the shortcomings in the fractional reserve system and drew attention to decentralized hedging as opposed to centralized banking.
“The 18th largest bank [SVB] has collapsed. We have learned how a record sell-off in US Treasuries resulted in billions of dollars of unrealized losses in the banking sector. Thus, we have received another example of the fact that a fractional reserve system has no savers, but only creditors,” writes The Bitcoin Layer.

- Bitcoin reacted with a bullish rally to the news that the US authorities provided liquidity to rescue depositors of Silicon Valley and Signature banks. Market analyst Tedtalksmacro called this move by the Fed the beginning of unofficial quantitative easing. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes was even more blunt: “Get ready for a rally in risk assets. Money Printer Launched! - he wrote. - Helping the depositors to burst banks means injecting money into the economy, from which liquidity was only withdrawn during the year. This is a great fuel for risky assets.”

- After the aforementioned bankruptcy of these two banks, the BTC rate jumped by more than 30%. This made market participants think again about the potential of cryptocurrency as a tool for capital protection. Meanwhile, CNBC Mad Money host Jim Cramer continued to criticize the cryptocurrency industry. In the latest episode of his show, he expressed his skepticism regarding the coin's latest price rally. The host also called bitcoin a "strange animal". In his opinion, cryptocurrencies are secretly manipulated by large financial institutions and wealthy investors. “Please don’t think that everything happens by itself,” Cramer warned the audience, adding that he never believed in bitcoin.

- The US Treasury has called for the introduction of an excise duty for mining companies in the amount of 30% of the cost of electricity consumed. This is stated in the Green Book of the department. The tax is planned to be introduced in stages over the next three years, increasing by 10% each year. In addition, miners will be required to report how much electricity and what power they use. The new excise is expected to reduce the total number of mining devices in the US.
Another provision concerns individuals. The US Treasury is proposing that people with foreign financial accounts holding more than $50,000 worth of cryptocurrencies report those assets on their tax returns. Among other things, the agency is discussing the possibility of assessing the market value of digital assets and is proposing to expand the rules for securities lending to include cryptocurrencies.

- Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, one of the largest crypto exchanges, has revealed the content of her investment portfolio. “I have a cryptocurrency portfolio. About 41% is in BTC and ETH, 38% in USDT and USDC, 12% in BGB (this is the Bitget platform token). The rest is small amounts in such altcoins as BLUR, SHIB/DOGE, MANA/SAND, DODO, AVAX, YFI. I look forward to buying more BGB and BTC when the price drops. I have some NFTs, but they are not avatar pictures. I bought artistic NFTs, for example, VR paintings by French artist Anna Zhilyaeva. They are exclusively for my personal collections and not for speculation,” she admitted.
According to Gracy Chen, ethereum will face increased volatility and a pullback in the next 2-7 months after a short-term market rise. Due to the lack of external liquidity, as well as the fact that current investors are more speculative, in the medium term, the ethereum price may move in the range from $1,200 to $2,000. “Capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market will begin to increase ahead of the bitcoin halving. ETH is expected to reach strong resistance in the $2,400-$3,500 range in 2024,” the expert believes.

- The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has warned of scammers who create fake mobile gaming apps and use them to steal crypto assets. Criminals position their apps as blockchain games based on the Play-to-Earn concept. Attackers contact victims online and invite them to play online games where players can be rewarded in crypto assets for certain actions (Play-to-Earn). For example, for growing crops on a virtual farm.
To take part in the game, victims need to download the game app, create a cryptocurrency wallet and buy assets. The more funds a user keeps in their gaming account, the greater their reward will be in the game, the scammers convince. When users stop topping up their account, criminals empty their wallets with malware that is activated when the game is downloaded.

- US Congressman Tom Emmer has once again opposed the launch of the state cryptocurrency. According to him, the digital dollar can be "easily weaponized" and used to spy on US citizens and to "crush politically unpopular activities."
The congressman noted that the cryptocurrency economy worries the US authorities, as it “takes power from centralized government institutions and returns it to the people.” Therefore, the idea of a controlled state cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly popular with regulators and law enforcement agencies.

- Henrik Zeberg, a trader and well-known macro analyst, has assessed the correlation between the US unemployment rate, the NAHB housing index, the stock market index and cryptocurrencies. The expert has noted the frightening similarity of the current scenario with the crisis of 1929, and has added that the markets are approaching an economic collapse that will drag on for several years. According to him, all markets were "extremely overheated, and the next recession could be much more serious than in 2007-2009." According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency market will also be hit very hard, and many digital coins will not withstand the pressure.
Zeberg has presented a forecast for a macroeconomic recession based on the Elliott wave theory. According to the study, wave 4 could reach its maximum level in early 2024. After that, large financial markets will be doomed to collapse. The specialist has emphasized that all attention should be focused on the economic performance of the third and fourth quarters of 2023, which could be the last bullish period of this market cycle.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 16, 2023, 10:53:59 AM
NordFX Broker Awarded for Outstanding Performance in Latin America and Asia

(https://i.imgur.com/JTdb9YJ.jpg)

Over its 15 years in the financial markets, brokerage firm NordFX has accumulated more than 70 professional awards. In March this year, the company added two prestigious accolades from International Business Magazine to its collection. NordFX was honored as the "Most Reliable Forex Broker LATAM 2023" and the "Best CFD Broker Asia 2023".

International Business Magazine is a respected publication based in the United Arab Emirates, with global recognition and a substantial readership comprising professionals from various industries and regions. In 2019, the magazine was nominated for the esteemed European Digital Media Awards in the "Best News Publication" category. Receiving awards from such a renowned publication reaffirms NordFX's dominant position in areas like Latin America and Asia. The company offers its clients In these regions a comprehensive range of services, adhering to the highest industry standards in the Forex and CFD markets.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 19, 2023, 03:19:29 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for March 20 - 24, 2023


EUR/USD: ECB Not Fazed by Banking Crisis

(https://i.imgur.com/r1LulrS.jpg)

The past week was marked by a large black candle when EUR/USD plummeted from 1.0759 to 1.0515. And this happened not on Thursday, March 16, when the ECB made a decision on the interest rate, but the day before. The reason for the weakening of the European currency was none other than the head of the National Bank of Saudi Arabia.

Here's what happened. Following the collapse of three banks in the United States, Silvergate, Silicon Valley, and Signature, the banking crisis spread to Europe, hitting Credit Suisse. This largest Swiss financial conglomerate has long been experiencing serious liquidity problems amid corruption scandals in Mozambique and rumors of dirty money from Bulgarian drug lords fueled by the media. And on Wednesday, March 15, it became known that the National Bank of Saudi Arabia, which is the largest shareholder of Credit Suisse, decided not to help the troubled Swiss with money anymore.

Credit Suisse's stocks fell more than 30%. But it didn't end there, and a wave of panic hit other major European banks. Societe Generale's shares fell by 12%, BNP Paribas - by 10%, Commerzbank - by 9%. In this situation, investors decided that the ECB would not dare to raise the rate by 50 basis points (bp), the likelihood of such a move dropped from 90% to 20%, which led to euro sales.

But as often happens, investors were wrong. Thursday came, and the European Central Bank did what it promised a month ago: raised the rate by 50 bp. In addition, concerns about the banking sector began to decline. The National Bank of Switzerland took on the salvation of Credit Suisse, and US authorities extended a helping hand to American banks, including the Treasury and the Federal Reserve. In addition, 11 more private banks joined the rescue operation, allocating $30 billion for these purposes. As a result, the storm subsided, EUR/USD returned to its comfortable zone of 1.0650, and market participants began discussing how much the US regulator would raise the interest rate on Wednesday.

Let's remind that the nearest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, March 22. However, despite the hawkish statements of Jerome Powell and his colleagues, macroeconomic statistics suggest rather easing than further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy.

The data from the US labor market published on March 9 and 10 vividly demonstrate the slowdown of the country's economy. Thus, the number of initial jobless claims was 211K, exceeding the expected 195K and 190K a month earlier. This indicator exceeded the 200K mark for the first time and reached a maximum since December 2022. As for the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP), it was 311K, significantly less than in January - 503K. Together with the rise in unemployment to 3.6% (3.4% in January), the decrease in retail sales growth rates, and the banking crisis, these data may cool down the hawkish fervor of FOMC members. Currently, the likelihood of raising the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (from the current 4.75% to 5.00%) on March 22 is 80%. Moreover, derivatives predict a drop in the rate below 4% by the end of 2023, which is bad news for the dollar.

However, the European economy is not doing well either, which could prompt the ECB to take a less aggressive step. The swap market is almost 100% sure that on May 4, the euro regulator will raise the rate only by 25 basis points - from 3.00% to 3.25%.

EUR/USD closed the past five-day period at 1.0664. At the time of writing this review, on Friday evening, March 17, 40% of analysts expect the strengthening of the dollar, while the same percentage predicts its weakening, and the remaining 20% take a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 75% are painted in green, another 10% are in red, and 15% are in neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, 90% recommend buying and 10% recommend selling. The nearest support for the pair is located in the area of 1.0590-1.0620, followed by levels and zones of 1.5000-1.0530, 1.0440, 1.0375-1.0400, 1.0300, and 1.0220-1.0255. Bulls will face resistance in the area of 1.0680-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0930, 1.0985-1.1030.

It is clear that the main event of the upcoming week will be the Fed meeting on March 22, the summary of forecasts, and the subsequent press conference of the organization's leadership. In addition, on Monday, March 20, the People's Bank of China will make its decision on the interest rate, which may affect the dynamics of the DXY dollar index. As for the end of the working week, on Thursday, March 23, another batch of data from the US labor market will be released, and on Friday, March 24, the indicators of business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone, as well as the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods in the United States, will become known.

GBP/USD: UK Treasury Boosts the Pound

GBP/USD also marked a black candle on March 15, albeit slightly shorter at 170 pips. However, by the end of the week, the pound had fully recovered and even strengthened compared to the first ten days of March, finishing at 1.2175. This was due to increased optimism about the prospects of the British economy. The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, presented the budget for the current year, the main goal of which, he said, was to stabilize the country's economy. It is expected that the UK GDP will decrease by only 0.2% this year, rather than 1.5% as previously expected, thus avoiding a technical recession. In addition, the inflation rate should decrease to 2.9% by the end of 2023, which is almost 3.5 times less than the peak value of 10.1%. Furthermore, the Chancellor announced a package of measures and benefits for individuals to help compensate for the shortage of labor.

Following the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates next week, the Bank of England (BoE) will announce its own decision just 18 hours later. It should be noted that the head of the BoE, Andrew Bailey, speaking on Wednesday, March 1, was vague, stating that a final decision regarding the prospects of the monetary policy of the British central bank had not yet been made, and that the bank should be flexible in the coming months to avoid alarming the markets. Now, the regulator's caution will be further exacerbated by the banking crisis initiated primarily by the aggressive actions of colleagues on the other side of the Atlantic. And if previously, market participants were confident in raising interest rates by at least 25 basis points from the current 4.00% (and perhaps even by 50 basis points), now they have doubts – what if the BoE decides to take a pause to assess the situation and avoid making any mistakes?

At the moment, the majority of experts (50%) are on the side of the dollar, with only 10% voting for the rise of the British currency, while the remaining 40% remain in a wait-and-see position. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 85% voted in favor of the greenback (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone) and 15% in favor of the red. Among the trend indicators, the absolute advantage is on the side of the greenback, with 100%. The support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1,2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, and 1.1600. If the pair moves north, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2200-1.2210, 1.2270, 1.2335, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750, and 1.2940.

As for events related to the UK economy, in addition to the BoE meeting, the next week's calendar includes Friday, March 24, when data on retail sales and business activity in the country's service sector will be released.

USD/JPY: Will the Interest Rate Go Even Lower?

The yen is the currency that is absolutely unaffected by the banking crisis in the US and Europe, on the contrary, it adds attractiveness to the Japanese currency as a quiet harbor capable of protecting against financial storms. Not even the statement by the departing governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Haruhiko Kuroda, about the possible further reduction of the interest rate, which is already negative at -0.1%, has discouraged investors. As a result, USD/JPY ended the trading session where it had already been in early February, at the level of 131.80.

As for the nearest prospects, currently, 50% of experts have voted for the pair to move north, 25% have pointed in the opposite direction, and another 25% have refrained from making any forecasts. Among the oscillators on D1, 90% are pointing south (a third of them are signaling oversold), while 10% are looking in the opposite direction. All trend indicators are pointing south. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 131.25, followed by levels and zones of 130.50, 129.70-130.00, 128.00-128.15, and 127.20. Resistance levels and zones are at 132.80-133.20, 134.00-134.35, 135.00-135.35, 135.90-136.00, 137.00, 137.50, and 137.90-138.00.

No significant macro statistics related to Japan's economy are expected to be released next week. However, traders should keep in mind that Tuesday, March 21is a holiday in Japan: the Spring Equinox Day. And, of course, it should not be forgotten that the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve is scheduled for March 22.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What's Bad for Banks Is Good for Bitcoin

In our last review, we listed a number of factors that negatively affect the crypto market. Among them are crypto repressions by US authorities, including the Treasury Department, SEC, Federal Reserve, Attorney General, Senate, and even the Biden administration. However, problems with altcoins and even upcoming changes in tax legislation pale in comparison to the crisis in the American banking sector. On March 8, the crypto bank Silvergate announced voluntary liquidation, followed by Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature Bank, which were actively used by crypto companies as fiat gateways. And last week, European banks were added to the list, as discussed above.

Silvergate suffered due to the debts of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX, while SVB and Signature were sunk by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, including aggressive interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions. "The 18th largest bank [SVB] has collapsed. We learned how the record sale of US Treasury bonds led to billions of dollars in unrealized losses in the banking sector. Thus, we received another example that a partial reserve system has creditors, not depositors," commented The Bitcoin Layer on the event. According to FDIC data, just in the last year, unrealized losses of US banks increased from $3 billion to $652 billion.

So, regulators first sent banks to the bottom, and then set about saving them. SVB and Signature have come under the control of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. The latter, along with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, stated that SVB and Signature Bank depositors will have access to all funds in full. In addition, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Bank Term Funding Facility (BTFP) to provide emergency financing to banks that may face similar problems, with $25 billion allocated for this purpose.

Against this background, the author of the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki once again called for investment in gold, silver, and bitcoin. In his opinion, to save the "sick economy," regulators will print "even more fake money." "Take care of yourself. An emergency landing is ahead," Kiyosaki wrote.

Market analyst Tedtalksmacro called this move by the Fed the beginning of unofficial quantitative easing. And former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, was even more categorical: "Get ready for a rapid rally in risky assets. The money printer is on! - he wrote. - Helping depositors of failed banks means injecting money into an economy from which liquidity has only been withdrawn over the course of a year. This is excellent fuel for risky assets."

Recall that at the beginning of March, we saw active outflows from institutional investors, who were scared off by regulators. In just one week, outflows from bitcoin funds amounted to a record $244 million. And now everything has changed: the BTC rate has jumped by more than 30%, and the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has once again risen above $1 trillion. Market participants have remembered the potential of cryptocurrency as a capital protection tool and that Bitcoin was created precisely to withstand such shocks. Observers draw parallels with the Cypriot crisis of 2013, which highlighted the shortcomings of the fractional reserve system and drew attention to decentralized hedging in opposition to centralized banking.

According to some experts, what happened has been excellent advertising for bitcoin, whose price is expected to soar. However, there are skeptical voices as well. For example, CNBC's Mad Money host Jim Cramer continued to criticize the crypto industry, calling bitcoin a "strange animal." In his opinion, large financial institutions and wealthy investors manipulate cryptocurrencies in secret. "Please don't think everything is happening on its own," Cramer warned the audience, adding that he never believed in bitcoin.

The forecast given by well-known macro analyst and trader Henrik Zeberg also looks bleak. He evaluated the correlation between the level of unemployment in the US, the NAHB housing index, the stock market index, and cryptocurrencies, and noted the scary similarity of the current scenario to the 1929 crisis. According to the expert, all markets were "extremely overheated" and are now approaching an economic collapse that will last for several years. The impending recession may be much more severe than in 2007-2009. According to the analyst, the cryptocurrency market will also suffer greatly, and many digital coins will not withstand the pressure.

Zeberg presented a forecast for the macroeconomic recession based on Elliott wave theory. According to the research, wave 4 may reach its maximum level in early 2024. After that, major financial markets will be doomed to collapse. The specialist emphasized that all attention should be focused on the economic indicators of the third and fourth quarters of 2023, which may become the last "bullish" period of this market cycle.

As of the writing of this review on the evening of March 17, BTC/USD is trading around $27,500. The total market capitalization of the crypto market rose from $0.937 trillion to $1.155 trillion over the week. The Bitcoin fear and greed index increased from 34 to 51 points in seven days and moved from the Fear zone to the Neutral zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 29, 2023, 02:32:09 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/69umSMU.jpg)

- Cane Island Alternative Advisors analyst Timothy Peterson stated that 6 million of the 19.3 million bitcoins mined are irretrievably lost. “This means that there are only 13.3 million BTC left, and only 1.7 million BTC to be mined over 100 years. Another million [coins] will almost certainly be lost during this time,” he wrote. According to Peterson, as new bitcoins are mined, old ones are lost. He called the 13 million BTC circulating today “everything we are likely to have access to.”
Coinmetrics analysts calculated in April 2020 that 2.3 million BTC out of the 18.3 million BTC mined at that time were lost forever.

- Canadian artist Benjamin Von Wong, who created the Satoshi Skull mascot for Greenpeace, said his work was “never intended to fight bitcoin.” “I created the Skull believing that bitcoin mining was a classic black and white problem. I've dedicated my entire career to reducing hazardous waste emissions, and PoW intuitively felt insecure. Of course, I was wrong,” Von Wong wrote.
The artist noted that after talking with experts from the crypto sphere, he realized the prospects of blockchain technology. In his opinion, bitcoin “could potentially become more environmentally friendly” without changing the algorithm. “I am excited to hear from the bitcoin community that the first cryptocurrency could achieve negative CO2 emissions by the end of the decade,” added von Wong. And now, instead of fighting mining, the artist calls to join the crypto community and improve it from the inside.
On March 23, Greenpeace unveiled a mascot that represents the "dangerous amounts of pollution" caused by bitcoin mining. Will Foxley, director of media strategy at mining company Compass Mining, called the installation “really cool” and put a skull image on the profile avatar.

- Venture investor and billionaire Tim Draper has published recommendations for asset diversification, including using cryptocurrencies. Draper wrote in a report aimed at entrepreneurs that companies "can no longer rely" on just one bank or regulator. “For the first time in many years, governments are taking over banks at the risk of becoming insolvent. Bitcoin is a defense against the financial domino effect and mismanagement with excessive control,” the businessman said. He added that "many startups" turned to him for emergency help after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Silvergate Bank and Signature Bank.
Draper suggested keeping short-term deposits for no more than six months in two separate accounts, at a local bank and an international bank. In his opinion, organizations should also transfer an amount equal to two salary funds into bitcoin or other digital assets. The billionaire stressed the importance of such a contingency cushion, as management is responsible for meeting payroll deadlines "even in times of crisis."

- Oliver Linch, CEO of Bittrex Global, links the recent bitcoin rally to the US banking crisis caused by the collapse of Silvergate Bank, Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. At the same time, according to a CNBC survey among influential figures in the industry, the market remains bullish about the future of the first cryptocurrency. So Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino believes that bitcoin can “retest” the all-time high of $69,000. And Marshall Beard, strategic director of the Gemini crypto exchange, predicts that the coin may reach $100,000 this year. In his opinion, if the first cryptocurrency manages to overcome the previous maximum, it “would not take much time to rise even higher.”

- Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that gold and bitcoin will be the most popular instruments for investors in 2023. The precious metal will confirm the status of the safest asset. The cost of a troy ounce of gold will soon exceed $2,000. At the same time, the attractiveness of bitcoin, which is seen as an instrument independent of the traditional banking system, will increase. As the global economy worsens, the number of investors who prefer to keep their capital in BTC, gold, as well as in treasuries, will grow, according to a note prepared by McGlone.
The collapse of the banking sector is reminiscent of the crisis of 1929, so the Federal Reserve tightens monetary policy. After the latest rate hike, investment in bitcoin has increased, although many observers expected its value to fall, Bloomberg strategist emphasized. In his opinion, the BTC rebound can be seen as a positive signal, as more traders continue to buy cryptocurrency even amid global uncertainty.

- Place Holder partner and former head of Ark Invest crypto company Chris Burniske, like Mike McGlone, believes now is the time to buy bitcoin and ethereum, as they are created for precisely such crisis moments.

- An analyst with the nickname The Wolf of Crypto found the history of the posts of the famous “gold bug” and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff and recalled that he buried BTC back in 2017. At the time, the coin was trading at $5,000, and Schiff promised that it would soon be completely worthless. Despite the past 6 years, the entrepreneur has not changed his position. And now, in March 2023, he stated that “Bitcoin’s zero price hike just dragged on a bit.”
Analysts recalled that bitcoin quotes rose by 47% after Schiff announced the need to sell assets amid fears caused by a banking collapse caused by the fall of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB).

 - Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, criticized bitcoin, saying that the fundamental value of the first cryptocurrency is zero. He called bitcoin a highly speculative asset with no economic value or utility. It should be noted that Hanke himself is promoting initiatives related to the dollarization of Latin American countries.
Cake Defi CEO Julian Hosp responded to Hanke that BTC can be argued endlessly, but bitcoin definitely has value. According to Hosp, there are undoubtedly people who need bitcoin, so the claim that the first cryptocurrency has zero value is fundamentally wrong.

- The Central African Republic (CAR) will be the next country to legalize cryptocurrency at the state level, writes BeInCrypto. This decision was made after the discussion of the issue in the National Assembly. The debates were held behind closed doors, and after them, the President of the country, Faustin-Archange Touadera, supported the Central Bank's opinion regarding the FCFA cryptocurrency, which will have the status of legal tender in the CAR.

- Analyst Cory Swan has theorized that it was the founder of the Binance Changpeng Zhao (CZ) crypto exchange who was all this time the bear who tried to crash bitcoin to $12,000. “CZ held a large short position against BTC, hoping for $12,000, and paying for his personal big trade with unsecured BUSD and unsecured altcoins,” Swann writes.
A user under the nickname Grinding Poet believes that “Bitcoin at $12,000 is too optimistic. This is a big black swan and a retest of the 2018 lows is imminent. The new target is $3,150.”


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 03, 2023, 09:41:17 AM
March 2023 Results: the Japanese Yen Helped NordFX Traders Enter the TOP-3

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NordFX Brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in March 2023. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The maximum monthly profit of 38,150 USD was received by a client from East Asia, account No. 286XX, on transactions with USD/CHF, USD/CAD and USD/JPY.
- This time, the second step was taken by their compatriot, account No. 1505XXX, who earned 26,955 USD trading the USD/JPY pair.
- And finally, a trader from South Asia, account No. 9605XXX, came in third place with a profit of 18,347 USD, their main trading instrument was the GBP/JPY pair.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

CopyTrading still pleases fans with a "veteran" signal, KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. It increased its profit to 355% in 697 days. Recall that despite the relative stability of the results, this supplier had a serious failure last November: the maximum drawdown on this signal approached 67% then. This can be called force majeure, but you should always keep in mind that trading in financial markets is a risky business, and can lead not only to impressive profits, but also to a complete loss of funds.
   
Another signal is Bull trader, which started on July 22, 2022, it has reached a profit of 183% over the past 248 days, with a drawdown of less than 23%. In addition, we drew the attention of algo trading fans a month ago to a startup called ATFOREXACADEMY ALGO 1. It celebrated a round date on March 31: it turned exactly 100 days old. It showed a very good profitability of 202% during this time, although its maximum drawdown turned out to be rather big, 38%.
   
In the PAMM service, two accounts continue to struggle in the financial markets, which we have repeatedly mentioned in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. They suffered serious losses in mid-November 2022: the drawdown at that moment approached 43%. However, PAMM managers managed to stabilize the situation, and profit on the first of these accounts reached 91% as of March 31, 2023, on the second - 58%, which is approximately the same as a year ago. |
   
This time, the Trade and earn account also attracted attention. It was opened more than a year ago, but was in a state of hibernation, waking up only in November. As a result, the yield on it has exceeded 55% over the past 5 months with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners of NordFX, the TOP-3 include representatives of East, South, and West Asia:
- the largest commission, 8,418 USD, was credited to a partner with account No.1259ХXХ;
- the next is the partner (account No. 1621ХХХ), who received 5,701 USD;
- and, finally, the partner with account No. 1618xxx, who received 4,536 USD as a reward, closes the top three.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 03, 2023, 10:11:31 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 03 - 07, 2023


EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Fell

Last week passed without sharp jumps. The dollar continued to fall in price, and EUR/USD returned by March 30 to where it was traded seven days before. The local maximum was fixed at 1.0925, and the five-day period finished at 1.0842.

The dollar continues to be pressured by the growth of investors' risk appetite: American and European stock indices have been going up since mid-March. Asian markets are not lagging behind: they were supported by statistics on business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing industry in China.

As for US macro statistics, it did not look good. The country's GDP growth for Q4 2022 was 2.6%, which is lower than both the forecast and the previous value (2.7%). But the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, on the contrary, increased from 191K to 198K against the forecast of 196K. Both of these indicators indicate a slowdown in the US economy.

In addition, it has become obvious to market participants that the crisis, which knocked out American Silvergate Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and European Credit Suisse, will cool the Fed's hawkish ardor and make it act much more cautiously. This opinion was confirmed on March 30 by the head of the Richmond Fed, Thomas Barkin, who said that the bankruptcy of Credit Suisse ruled out the option of further raising interest rates by 50 basis points (bp).

European macro statistics turned out to be quite diverse. On Thursday, March 30, the value of the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) in Germany became known, which rose in March by 7.8% y/y. This is less than a month ago (9.3%), but higher than the forecast (7.5%). As a result, looking at these figures, the market decided that the ECB would have to continue actively tightening monetary policy and raising euro rates in order to fight inflation. The yield of German government bonds outperformed the yield of similar US bills, and EUR/USD reached weekly highs. Friday's statistics, on the contrary, reassured bears on the dollar to a certain extent, as Eurostat reported that the Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) fell in March in the euro area from 8.5% in February to 6.9% year-on-year (with a forecast of 7.1%).

The market reaction to this and other statistics on Friday (such as the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index) was rather sluggish, as this day coincided with the last day of the Q1 2023, when many market participants have already recorded quarterly results in their reports.

Regarding the medium- and long-term prospects for EUR/USD, Bank of America (BoA) economists believe that “the market is again running ahead of the locomotive, incorporating early Fed rate cuts into prices, and reassessing these expectations is likely to put pressure on the pair in the short term.” According to the BoA forecast, “the EUR/USD rate will be 1.05 in the first half of the year, it will rise to 1.10 by the end of this year, and to 1.15 by the end of 2024, which is still below the long-term equilibrium value.” “We assume that the worst of the recent banking turmoil is behind us, but we remain concerned about two risks for the euro: the ongoing conflict over Ukraine and possible pressure on the Italian market from a hawkish ECB,” BoA explained.

If we talk about the outlook for the near term, at the time of writing, the evening of Friday, March 31, 55% of analysts expect further weakening of the dollar, 35% - its strengthening, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. Of the oscillators on D1, 90% are colored green, and another 10% are colored red. Among trend indicators, 80% recommend buying, 20% - selling. The nearest support for the pair is located at 1.0800, then 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0680-1.0710, 1.0620 and 1.0500-1.0530. Bulls will meet resistance in the area of 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0985-1.1030, 1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280 and 1.1355-1.1390.

Of the upcoming week's events, the publication on Monday, April 03, of data on business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sectors of Germany and the USA is of interest. This will be followed by a whole stream of information from the US labor market. This will be statistics on the number of open JOLTS vacancies on Tuesday, April 4, the change in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector from ADP on Wednesday, and the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits on Thursday. And on Friday, April 7, we will have data on the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP). It must be borne in mind that April 07 is Good Friday in Europe, the USA and a number of other countries, a day off, so the reaction to these figures will follow next week, on Monday April 10.

GBP/USD: Will the Pair Continue to Grow?

The dollar weakened not only against the euro, but also against the British pound. GBP/USD has risen by more than 600 points since March 08, in just three weeks. Only the key resistance in the area of 1.2425-1.2450 could stop its growth. But does the pound have the strength to climb further?

On March 23, the Bank of England (BoE) raised its key interest rate by 25 bp. to 4.25% (for comparison, the current rate of the US Federal Reserve is 5.00%). At the same time, the situation with inflation in the country is not improving. The United Kingdom remains the only developed economy where inflation has hardly fallen throughout the year and remains at double-digit multi-year highs. The main Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March was 10.4%, and the basic CPI was 6.2%. Therefore, many analysts expect that the increase in interest rates will be one of the main steps taken by the BoE at the upcoming meetings. Moreover, the regulator will have to keep the rate at high values for a long time, even though this will stifle the country's economy. (GDP growth rates are now at near-zero levels. Thus, the data published on March 31 showed GDP growth in Q4 2022 by only 0.1%).

Pressure on the economy makes a number of analysts talk about the pound's limited potential. However, despite this, many strategists believe that a recession will be avoided, and the rate hike will continue to push the pound higher. Thus, ANZ Bank economists expect the pair to rise to 1.26 by the end of the year. The forecast of their colleagues from the French Societe Generale looks even bolder: in their opinion, GBP/USD will follow EUR/GBP and gradually move up to 1.30.

The pair closed last week at 1.2330. At the moment, 45% of experts side with the dollar, the same number (45%) side with the pound, the remaining 10% have taken a wait-and-see attitude. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 85% vote in favor of green and 15% have turned neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the absolute advantage is on the side of the green ones, those are 100%. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2270, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2390-1.2425, 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

Statistics on the UK economy include the publication of the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector on Monday, April 3. The values of PMI in the services sector, as well as the composite value of this Index, will become known on Wednesday. And we remind you that Friday is a day off in the Kingdom.

USD/JPY: Will BoJ Change Course in the Summer?

Unlike its DXY “colleagues”, the Japanese currency has shown absolutely the opposite trend against the dollar. While the euro and pound were strengthening their positions last week, the yen was losing them. There are two reasons for this, in our opinion. First, the yen was pressured by the fact that March 31 is not only the end of the quarter, but also the end of the fiscal year in Japan. The second one, which has been said many times already, is the ultra-soft policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Kazuo Ueda, the new head of the regulator, who takes office on April 09, has repeatedly spoken out in favor of continuing the dovish course of his predecessor Haruhiko Kuroda. And of course, such statements do not contribute to the attractiveness of the national currency.

Since November 2022, concerns about financial instability have led to a surge in purchases of the yen as a safe haven. However, as Societe Generale strategists write, even the "safe harbor" needs change. USD/JPY needs more action from the BoJ to justify its big decline. If the Central Bank does nothing, USD/JPY is likely to rise even more. Societe Generale expects that any moves to change the monetary policy of BoJ will be made in June, which could send the pair to the 125.00 level. A sharp easing of the US Federal Reserve's policy can also help the Japanese currency.

The comments of economists from ANZ Bank look similar. “In the short term, [BoJ] policy change looks unlikely,” they write. “If it does change, which we expect to happen after the second quarter of this year, the Japanese yen will rise on more favorable yield differentials. We expect USD/JPY to fall gradually to 124.00 by the end of the year.”

Here, however, one must take into account the statement of the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Shinichi Uchida, made on Wednesday, March 29. According to him, the adjustment of the regulator's monetary policy to control bond yields is possible only if economic conditions and price stability improve, which will justify a gradual reduction in monetary stimulus.

So, the fall of USD/JPY to the zone of 124.00-125.00 is still a big question. It finished the last week at the level of 132.80. And as for the immediate prospects, at the moment, 40% of experts vote for the further movement of the pair to the north, 30% point in the opposite direction, and another 30% have abstained from forecasts. Among the oscillators on D1, 15% point south, 40% look in the opposite direction, and 35% are neutral. For trend indicators, 40% point to the north, the remaining 60% point to the south. The nearest support level is located in the zone 131.25, then there are levels and zones 130.50, 129.70-130.00, 128.00-128.15 and 127.20.  Resistance levels and zones are 133.00, 133.60, 134.00-134.35, 135.00-135.35, 135.90-136.00, 137.00, 137.50 and 137.90-138.00.

No important macro data on the Japanese economy is expected to be released this week. The only thing that can be noted in the calendar is Monday, April 03, when the Tankan Major Producers Sentiment Index for Q1 2023 will be published.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: What Will Happen to Binance?

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The crisis that crippled Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature and hit Credit Suisse has certainly helped the crypto market by reminding what decentralized finance was created for. However, investors' fears about a new wave of the banking crisis in the US and Europe are gradually fading away, which is clearly seen on the BTC/USD chart. If during the March 10-17 rally, digital gold gained almost 45% in weight, it has been unsuccessfully trying to storm the important $29,000 resistance for the last two weeks. Bitcoin needs not only to rise, but to sustainably gain a foothold above this horizon. Then, according to a number of experts, starting from this, it will be able to reach the next goal of $35,000. In the meantime, BTC is supported by the $26,500 level.

This support survived even when the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission) filed a lawsuit against Binance on Monday, March 27, accusing the crypto exchange of conducting unregistered futures and options transactions, serving US customers bypassing restrictions, illegal operations (in including in favor of Hamas, recognized as a terrorist organization in many countries) and market manipulation.

In relation to the last accusation, analyst Cory Swan has theorized that it was the founder of the Binance Changpeng Zhao (CZ) crypto exchange who was all this time the bear who tried to crash bitcoin to $12,000. “CZ held a large short position against BTC, hoping for $12,000, and paying for his personal big trade with unsecured BUSD and unsecured altcoins,” Swann writes.

At the moment, opinions are divided regarding the future of Binance. Some believe that no one needs the funeral of such a giant, as this will be a collapse for the entire crypto industry. Others are confident that the CFTC will seek the most severe punishment for the exchange. Even in the event of a pre-trial settlement, she will face billions in fines and a ban on work in the United States. If the court nevertheless takes place and finds Binance and its management guilty, both many clients and financial counterparties around the world will immediately turn away from them.

According to a CNBC survey of industry influencers, the market remains bullish on the future of the first cryptocurrency at this stage. So Tether CTO Paolo Ardoino believes that bitcoin can “retest” the all-time high of $69,000. And Marshall Beard, strategic director of the Gemini crypto exchange, predicts that the coin may reach $100,000 this year. In his opinion, if the first cryptocurrency manages to overcome the previous maximum, it “would not take much time to rise even higher.” However, a new bullish rally requires powerful new triggers, both economic and news. But neither the first nor the second has yet been observed.

Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that gold and bitcoin will be the most popular instruments for investors in 2023. The precious metal will confirm the status of the safest asset. The cost of a troy ounce of gold will soon exceed $2,000. At the same time, the attractiveness of bitcoin, which is seen as an instrument independent of the traditional banking system, will increase. As the global economy worsens, the number of investors who prefer to keep their capital in BTC, gold, as well as in treasuries, will grow, according to a note prepared by McGlone.

The collapse of the banking sector is reminiscent of the crisis of 1929, so the Fed is tightening monetary policy. After the latest rate hike, investment in bitcoin has increased, although many observers expected its value to fall, Bloomberg strategist emphasized. In his opinion, the BTC rebound can be seen as a positive signal, as more traders continue to buy cryptocurrency even amid global uncertainty.

Place Holder partner and former head of Ark Invest crypto company Chris Burniske, like Mike McGlone, believes now is the time to buy bitcoin and ethereum, as they are created for precisely such crisis moments.

Venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper made similar recommendations. Draper wrote in a report aimed at entrepreneurs that companies "can no longer rely" on just one bank or regulator. “For the first time in many years, governments are taking over banks at the risk of becoming insolvent. Bitcoin is a hedge against the financial domino effect and over-control mismanagement.”

Draper suggested keeping short-term deposits for no more than six months in two separate accounts, at a local bank and an international bank. In his opinion, organizations should also transfer an amount equal to two salary funds into bitcoin or other digital assets. The billionaire stressed the importance of such a contingency cushion, as management is responsible for meeting payroll deadlines "even in times of crisis."

Of course, as always, the voices of "crypto gravediggers" are heard. Thus, the analyst under the nickname Grinding Poet believes that “a retest of the 2018 lows is inevitable” and “the new target is $3,150.” The well-known gold bug and bitcoin critic Peter Schiff continues to stand his ground. Back in 2017, Schiff promised that the coin would soon be completely worthless. Despite the past 6 years, the entrepreneur has not changed his position. And now, in March 2023, he stated that “bitcoin’s zero price hike just dragged on a bit.”

Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University, criticized bitcoin again, saying that the fundamental value of the first cryptocurrency is zero. He called BTC a highly speculative asset with no economic value or utility.

Cake Defi CEO Julian Hosp told Hanke that bitcoin is debatable, but it certainly has value. According to Hosp, there are undoubtedly people who need bitcoin, so the claim that the first cryptocurrency has zero value is fundamentally wrong.

We tend to agree with Hosp, because at the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, March 31, BTC definitely has value and is expressed in a very specific figure of $28,375 per coin. The total capitalization of the crypto market has grown slightly over the week, from $1.169 trillion to $1.185 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index also rose from 61 to 63 points in seven days and is still in the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 05, 2023, 02:11:06 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/9TbKM4R.jpg)

- UK-based crypto companies are having difficulty accessing banking services. According to Bloomberg sources, banks have begun to reject applications, block accounts and request more information regarding customer transactions.
The agency recalled the decision of HSBC and the Nationwide Building Society to prohibit retail customers from purchasing digital assets using credit cards. Payment service provider Paysafe has announced the termination of its partnership with Binance, citing a “difficult” regulatory environment.
In response to the deteriorating situation, CryptoUK representatives have approached the government with a proposal to create a "whitelist" of companies registered in the country to ease restrictions. And according to Coinpass co-founder and CEO Jeff HanKeynesian economics and Techincal Analyzer, problems with access to banking are contrary to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's plans to turn the country into a cryptohub.

- Cryptocurrency companies may change their jurisdiction from the US to Hong Kong amid increased supervision by US regulators. This was stated to The Wall Street Journal by Ambre Soubiran, the head of the Paris-based crypto asset data provider Kaiko. “Today, the US is tougher on cryptocurrencies than ever, and Hong Kong's regulation [looks] more favorable, which is clearly shifting the center of gravity in investing and trading crypto assets towards it. We want to be where our customers are,” she said. According to Subiran, Kaiko plans to organize a team in Hong Kong, including through access to Chinese institutional investors.

- A cryptocurrency analyst known as Stockmoney Lizards analyzed the dynamics of the flagship crypto asset. In his opinion, the asset's monthly chart looks promising and indicates the potential for further growth. The expert's assumptions are supported by the readings of the RSI indicator. Stockmoney Lizards believes that the current market situation is very similar to the period from 2017 to 2020, when a steady upward trend began to form, and that bitcoin will soon be able to reach the key $47,000 mark.
Another well-known analyst, Michael Van De Poppe, shares this view. According to the expert, buyers are still in control of the situation. If bitcoin quotes remain above $25,000 for some time, we can count on a potential increase up to the level of $40,000.
In turn, representatives of the Derebit platform informed that open interest in bitcoin derivatives continues to grow steadily. They stressed that most of the positions are open to buy, as investors continue to believe in the potential of the crypto market's flagship.

- Experts from the analytical company Glassnode spoke about the friendliest countries in terms of cryptocurrency taxation in 2023. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) turned out to be the leader. This came as no surprise, as Dubai has made a lot of efforts over the past year to attract crypto companies and other industry participants. In a short period of time, special commissions to regulate cryptocurrencies, separate tax legislation for the digital asset sector, and many other innovations have been created there. All this allows Dubai to claim the title of the world's crypto capital.
The honorable second and third places in the Glassnode list were taken by such states as Malta and Belarus. Next came Monaco, Panama and Malaysia. Among the major countries of the European Union, Germany ranked 7th. Singapore, Switzerland and El Salvador followed closely behind.

- Charles Edwards, founder of digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, noted a “familiar” bullish signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric in his tweet. SLRV Ribbons is a tool to measure the potential return of bitcoin. It analyzes the interaction of two moving averages. When the short-term 30-day MA crosses the long-term 150-day MA, bitcoin is in the beginning of a bullish phase. This metric is “as simple as it gets,” Edwards wrote. “It is currently repeating classic bullish behavior with a crossover in early 2023.” The specialist added that SLRV Ribbons, although a relatively new tool, has been tested and shown to be reliable and able to increase the return on investments in BTC.
SLRV is not the only metric that gave the founder of Capriole Investments a sense of déjà vu this month. The Bitcoin Yardstick tool shows a retracement of bitcoin's market value relative to hashrate, but still classifies BTC as "cheap" at current prices. “Bitcoin Yardstick is drawing a very familiar signature to the 2019 lows,” Edwards commented on the indicator readings. At the beginning of that year, after exiting the “cheap” zone, BTC/USD saw only one brief drop during the crisis caused by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. At the moment, according to indicators, price targets for BTC are fixed at $35,000.

- The head of largest crypto exchange Binance, Changpeng Zhao (CZ), believes that competitors to the trading platform pay news agencies and opinion leaders to increase fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) about his company. Zhao shared this sentiment as reports surfaced online that he had received an Interpol Red Notice (International Arrest Request). According to the head of Binance, the rumors are not true and are the next wave of FUD.
“All this looks like news leak paid for by another crypto exchange. Amazing. Thus, they [the organizers of the attacks] harm the industry and themselves. We have enough of those who attack us from the outside. At such moments, the cryptocurrency industry should [on the contrary] unite [rather than attack other market players],” Changpeng Zhao wrote in his blog. He did not specify which crypto exchange Zhao believes is attacking Binance.

- According to the analytical company Glassnode, despite the fall in the value of the leading digital currency, its attractiveness as an asset class continues to grow. Thus, the number of unique addresses on the bitcoin network with a balance of at least one coin has reached 992,243. The number of addresses controlling from 100 to 1000 BTC is 14,004. The four largest whales hold between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, including the Binance and Bitfinex exchanges, which control 248,597 and 178,010 bitcoins, respectively. At the same time, it is possible that one of these four whales is the US government. According to the Dune analysts, the total stock of the first cryptocurrency by the US authorities is 205,515 BTC: more than 1% of the coin supply. Most of these assets were obtained when they were confiscated from criminals.
Glassnode experts note that a surge in trader activity was recorded in the second half of last year, when bitcoin fell to $15,000. It was at this time that the number of BTC wallets with a non-zero balance increased sharply, a similar trend is observed in 2023.

- Cybercriminals have stolen $255.8 million in digital currencies since the beginning of the year. "Only" $8.8 million was stolen in January, 3.5 times more - $35.5 million in February, and the figure rose to $211.5 million in March. In total, hackers committed 26 hacks during the first month of spring. The largest amount was stolen during the attack on the Euler Finance DeFi platform, about $197 million, but later the hacker apologized and returned $182.7 million to the project. The reasons for this "nobility" remain unknown. He may have decided that the remaining $14 million would be enough for him.
In addition to cryptocurrencies, $31.5 million worth of NFTs were stolen in three months. A significant part of the stolen tokens was sold on the Blur and OpenSea marketplaces within the first two hours after the theft.

- Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX crypto exchange, has made a bold prediction about the rise in the price of bitcoin to $1 million. He was prompted to do so by the news that the People's Bank of China lowered the required reserve ratios (RRR) for all banks by 0.25%.
For reference: The required reserve ratio is the statutory share of a commercial bank's liabilities on attracted deposits. When this rate is lowered, the amount of funds that commercial banks can provide for lending or investment increases.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 08, 2023, 05:52:52 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 10 - 14, 2023


EUR/USD: Fed rate Divination Continues

(https://i.imgur.com/vU45xfB.jpg)

The dollar seems to be either weakening or not. On the one hand, the DXY dollar index updated a two-month low on April 4, falling below the support of 101.50, and EUR/USD rose to a new high of 1.0972. On the other hand, the pair returned by the end of last week to where it had already been on March 23 and 31.

DXY continues to be pressured by poor US macro statistics. The country's GDP growth for Q4 2022 was 2.6%, which is lower than both the forecast and the previous value (2.7%). Business activity in March continued to decline at an accelerated pace: the PMI index in the manufacturing sector fell to 46.3 against the forecast of 47.5 and 47.7 in February, and it fell to 51.2 in the services sector (forecast 54.5, February value 55.1). New orders for industrial goods fell by 0.7% in February, worse than the forecast of 0.5% once again. And this despite the fact that they had already fallen by 2.1% a month earlier. The JOLTs job market report showed a decline in the number of open vacancies to 9.9 million, the lowest figure in the last two years.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics released its March employment report on Friday, March 07. The number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) in the United States, with a forecast of 240K, in reality fell to 236K. This figure was significantly higher in February and amounted to 326K. But the unemployment rate fell from 3.6% to 3.5%, which slightly supported the US currency (on the thin market, DXY rose above 102.00). However, the main reaction of the market to these data will follow only next week. April 07 in Europe, the USA and a number of other countries was a day off, Good Friday. Europe takes a break on Easter Monday, April 10 as well. The last time NFP was released on Good Friday was in 2021, and then, despite a sharp jump in this indicator, the delayed market response was very restrained.

Of course, all of the above indicators may lead to adjustments in market expectations for the US Federal Reserve rate. However, the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will be held only on May 03, and many more significant statistics will be released before then. The weak state of the economy may cool the hawkish ardor of the FOMC members and force them to take a break in tightening monetary policy, leaving the rate at the same level of 5.00%. At the moment, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, there is a 52.7% chance of another rate hike of 25 basis points (bp).

EUR/USD closed last week at 1.0901. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, April 07, the opinions of analysts are divided almost equally: 35% of them expect further weakening of the dollar, 35% - its strengthening, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 90% are colored green, another 10% are gray neutral. Among trend indicators, 75% recommend buying, 15% - selling. The nearest support for the pair is located at 1.0885, 1.0860, then 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620 and 1.0490-1.0530. Bulls will meet resistance at 1.0925, then 1.0955, 1.0985-1.1030, 1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280 and 1.1355-1.1390.

Retail sales in the Eurozone will be announced this week on Monday April 11. The next day, important data on consumer inflation (CPI ) in the US will be released. The minutes of the March FOMC meeting will also be published on Wednesday. On Thursday, the CPI values in Germany, the number of initial jobless claims in the US and the US Producer Price Index (PPI) will be known. On Friday, we will have a whole package of statistics on retail sales in the US.

GBP/USD: PMI Gives Investors Hope

Against the backdrop of a weakened dollar, GBP/USD feels quite good, and the pound made another high on April 04, reaching a high of 1.2525. It has not traded this high since the beginning of June 2022. However, then there was a slight correction, and the pair completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2414, returning to the values of mid-December 2022 - the second half of January 2023.

As a matter of fact, the UK economy, like the US, had nothing to brag about last week. The index of business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of the country, published on April 3, showed a decrease from 49.3 to 47.9 points (with a forecast of 48.0). PMI values in the services sector and the composite value of this Index also turned out to be lower than the previous values - 52.9/53.5 and 52.2/53.1, respectively. However, the fact that both of these Indexes are holding above the 50.0 mark gives investors hope that the British economy is able to avoid a recession. This, in turn, supports the position of the national currency.

At the moment, 40% of experts side with the pound, the same number (40%) have taken a wait-and-see position, only 20% have turned out to side with the dollar. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 90% vote in favor of green and 10% have turned red. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is on the side of the greens, they have 85%, the enemy has 15%. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2390, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2450, 1.2510-1.2525, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2750 and 1.2940.

In terms of the UK economy, there are two speeches by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey next week on Wednesday April 12. On Thursday, April 13, there will be data on production volumes in the manufacturing industry, as well as on the country's GDP. As a reminder, Monday April 10 is Easter Bank Holiday in the United Kingdom.

USD/JPY: BoJ Remains Ultra Soft

This time the dynamics of USD/JPY as a whole corresponded (as it should be, mirrored) to what its "colleagues" in DXY were doing. At the beginning of the week, it fell from a height of 133.75 and recorded a local low of 130.60 on April 5. And then it went up, reaching 132.37 in a thin market and a sluggish US employment report. The last chord of the week sounded a bit lower, at 132.14.

As far as Japan's monetary policy is concerned, nothing has changed here: external influencers still hope for its tightening, domestic influencers say that the ultra-soft, dovish rate remains unchanged. Thus, on Friday, April 7, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), gently hinted that “it is appropriate to make the Bank of Japan's monetary policy more flexible.” And Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday praised the efforts of the outgoing Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Haruhiko Kuroda and expressed the hope that under the new leadership, the Central Bank “will continue to support its adequate and expedient policy.”

We wrote in our previous review that Societe Generale economists expect that any steps to change the BoJ rate can be taken no earlier than June. The comments of their colleagues from ANZ Bank look similar. “In the near term, [BOJ] policy change looks unlikely,” they wrote. And if changes do occur, then, according to ANZ Bank forecasts, they can be expected only after Q2 of this year.

As for the immediate prospects for USD/JPY, at the moment 55% of experts vote for the further movement of the pair to the north, and 45% point in the opposite direction. Among the oscillators on D1, 25% point south, the same number look in the opposite direction, and 50% are neutral. For trend indicators, 40% point to the north, the remaining 60% point to the south. The nearest support level is located in the zone 131.85-132.00, then there are levels and zones 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.70-130.00, 128.00-128.15 and 127.20.  Resistance levels and zones are 132.80-133.00, 133.60-133.75, 134.35, 135.00-135.35, 135.90-136.00, 137.00, 137.50 and 137.90-138.00.

As for the release of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, it is not expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: $29,000 Resistance Has Never Been Taken

The beginning of the previous review sounded like this: “The crisis that crippled Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) and Signature and hit Credit Suisse has certainly helped the crypto market by reminding what decentralized finance was created for. However, investors' fears about a new wave of the banking crisis in the US and Europe are gradually fading away, which is clearly seen on the BTC/USD chart. If during the March 10-17 rally, digital gold gained almost 45% in weight, it has been unsuccessfully trying to storm the important $29,000 resistance for the last two weeks.  […] BTC is supported by the $26,500 level.”

This was written seven days ago, but even now everything said remains relevant. The only amendment is that the fluctuation range narrowed even more last week, and the local low was fixed at $27,190. Triggers are needed to break through this range in one direction or another, they have not yet been observed.

As already mentioned, the crypto market, especially bitcoin, was supported by the banking crisis and the worsening macroeconomic environment in general. However, the industry continues to be under regulatory pressure from US government agencies, which have now been joined by their UK colleagues. As a result, on the one hand, we are seeing a decrease in BTC liquidity to a 10-month low, and on the other, an increase in trading volumes.

According to a CNBC survey of industry influencers, the market remains bullish on the future of the first cryptocurrency at this stage. According to the analytical company Glassnode, its attractiveness continues to increase. Experts from this company note that a surge in trader activity was recorded in the second half of last year, when bitcoin fell to $15,000, and a similar trend is observed in 2023. Thus, the number of unique addresses on the bitcoin network with a balance of at least one coin has reached 992,243. The number of addresses controlling from 100 to 1000 BTC is 14,004. The four largest whales hold between 100,000 and 1 million BTC, including the Binance and Bitfinex exchanges, which control 248,597 and 178,010 bitcoins, respectively. At the same time, it is possible that one of these four whales is the US government. According to Dune analysts, the total stock of the first cryptocurrency in the US authorities is 205,515 BTC: more than 1% of the coin issue (mostly these assets were obtained during confiscation from criminals).

Representatives of the Derebit platform confirm the general bullish attitude. According to them, open interest in bitcoin derivatives continues to grow steadily. Derebit stressed that most of the positions are open to buy, as investors continue to believe in the potential of the crypto market's flagship.

In parallel with the growing attractiveness of digital assets for investors, their attractiveness for criminals is also growing. Cybercriminals have stolen $255.8 million in digital currencies since the beginning of the year. At the same time, "only" $8.8 million was stolen in January, 3.5 times more - $35.5 million in February, and the figure rose to $211.5 million in March.

A crypto analyst known as Stockmoney Lizards analyzed the dynamics of the flagship crypto asset. In his opinion, the asset's monthly chart looks promising and indicates the potential for further growth. The expert's assumptions are supported by the readings of the RSI indicator. Stockmoney Lizards believes that the current market situation is very similar to the period from 2017 to 2020, when a steady upward trend began to form, and that bitcoin will soon be able to reach the key $47,000 mark.

Another well-known analyst, Michael Van De Poppe, shares this view. According to the expert, buyers are still in control of the situation. If bitcoin quotes remain above $25,000 for some time, we can count on a potential increase up to the level of $40,000.

Charles Edwards, founder of hedge fund Capriole Investments, has noted a "familiar" bullish signal on the SLRV Ribbons metric. SLRV Ribbons is a tool to measure the potential return of bitcoin. It analyzes the interaction of two moving averages. When the short-term 30-day MA crosses the long-term 150-day MA, bitcoin is in the beginning of a bullish phase. This metric is “as simple as it gets,” Edwards tweeted. “It is currently repeating classic bullish behavior with a crossover in early 2023.” The specialist added that although SLRV Ribbons is a relatively new tool, tests have proven its reliability and ability to increase the return on investments in BTC.

SLRV is not the only metric that gave the founder of Capriole Investments a sense of déjà vu this month. The Bitcoin Yardstick tool shows a retracement of bitcoin's market value relative to hashrate, but still classifies BTC as "cheap" at current prices. “Bitcoin Yardstick is drawing a very familiar signature to the 2019 lows,” Edwards commented on the indicator readings. At the beginning of that year, after exiting the “cheap” zone, BTC/USD saw only one brief drop during the crisis caused by the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. At the moment, according to indicators, price targets for BTC are fixed at $35,000.

Moving from short-term to long-term, Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX crypto exchange, was the biggest optimist here, citing $1 million per coin as a target for bitcoin. He was prompted to do so by the news that the People's Bank of China lowered the required reserve ratios (RRR) for all banks by 0.25%. (For reference: The required reserve ratio is the statutory share of a commercial bank's liabilities on attracted deposits. When this rate is lowered, the amount of funds that commercial banks can provide for lending or investment increases.

At the time of this writing, Friday evening, April 07, BTC/USD is clearly still very far from reaching $1 million and is currently trading at $27,860. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.177 trillion ($1.185 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen by just one point in seven days, from 63 to 64, and is still in the Greed zone.

And finally, a few words about the main altcoin, ethereum. The long-awaited Shanghai hard fork will take place on its network on April 12, which will allow validators to withdraw coins frozen for staking. At the moment, their volume is 18 million ETH, or 15% of the total supply.

To reduce potential pressure on the price and not overload the network, those wishing to exit staking will be forced to stand in line. The maximum daily outflow is limited to 2,200 transactions or 70k coins. Most likely, this queue will be quite long. And much of this is due to U.S. regulators, which put even more pressure on ethereum than bitcoin. Here are pre-trial proceedings with the Kraken and Coinbase crypto exchanges to refuse staking, and the SEC's desire to assign ETH the status of a security. All this, of course, despite the hard fork, reduces the attractiveness of this asset for investors, and makes the prospects for ethereum very vague. Well-known trader and analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the best time to buy ethereum will be when ETH/BTC falls into the range from 0.03 to 0.04 (currently 0.067). The analyst assures that he will wait for these figures, and only then will he make an appropriate investment decision.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 12, 2023, 02:40:25 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/RlWV8EP.jpg)

- On April 11, bitcoin rose above $30,000, for the first time since June 2022. The main cryptocurrency continues to outperform other major asset classes such as gold or oil. This comes amid expectations that central banks will put a hold on rate hikes.
Several industry analysts have expressed their opinion on what happened. Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known strategist, and founder of the investment company Eight, noted that bitcoin successfully passed the $28,600 test, which led to a breakthrough in resistance and reached $30,000. An analyst with the nickname PlanB tweeted that all the goals he set back in October 2022 have now been achieved. At that time, the expert predicted that BTC quotes would overcome $21,000, $24,000, and then $30,000. And another popular blogger and analyst, Lark Davis, stressed that the time will soon come when buying bitcoins for less than $30,000 will seem as fantastic as buying BTC at $3,000 now.

- In terms of the number of requests, bitcoin has overtaken former President Donald Trump, famous musician Elvis Presley, and Disney World. In the United States, the number of requests related to the first cryptocurrency in the Google search engine reached 1.9 million, and in terms of the global indicator, the figure reached 12 million. This is stated in research by Ahrefs. According to Google Trends, Donald Trump was only two days ahead of bitcoin last month when reports of his arrest surfaced.

- In India, a 23-year-old employee of a large technology company tried to commit suicide after losing 3 million rupees (about $ 37,000) on investments in cryptocurrency. This is reported by The Times of India. According to the publication, a taxi driver noticed the Newbie trader man on a bridge in Kolkata and reported to the police. As a result, law enforcement officers prevented him from jumping into the river. During the interrogation, the investor spoke about unsuccessful investments in the digital asset market. For this purpose, he used, among other things, his mother's pension and borrowed funds. Recently, he has been receiving threats demanding a refund.
Earlier, The Balance rehabilitation center in Spain began providing treatment services for addiction to digital asset trading. The course is four weeks long. The cost of treatment exceeds $75,000 (that is, twice what the failed investor from India lost).

- The head of the opposition party “For Thailand” (Pheu Thai) and candidate for Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin has promised to allocate digital assets to every citizen over 16 years of age if he wins the elections in May. According to Bloomberg, each eligible resident will allegedly be able to receive 10,000 baht (~$290). It is not specified which cryptocurrency the “state-owned AirDrop” is planned to be used in. The office of the incumbent Prime Minister is already concerned about the proposed action and is wondering where the funds (about $15 billion) for this AirDrop will come from.
It should be noted that such an initiative is not new. The El Salvadorian government has already given away bitcoins to its citizens who used CRisk aversiono wallets. True, the amount was 10 times more modest, about $30.

- ChatGPT artificial intelligence spoke about the formation of a recession-resistant investment portfolio. According to a document published by the Gold IRA Guide, the chatbot recommended allocating 20% for gold and other precious metals. The rest of its hypothetical portfolio consisted of bonds (40%), "defensive" stocks (30%) and cash (10%).
The chatbot did not mention cryptocurrencies, much to the delight of well-known bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff. “After all, artificial intelligence is pretty smart. It did not recommend any bitcoin deposit,” this investor wrote.
However, ChatGPT's response was not necessarily against digital gold in favor of physical gold. The ForkLog editors asked the chatbot for its opinion on both assets. According to the answer, the choice between them may depend on investment goals, risk level and personal preferences.

- This week, investors will have access to the second most popular cryptocurrency, ethereum, worth more than $33 billion (about 15% of the total). This will happen as part of the planned blockchain modernization, writes Reuters. A new blockchain software update called Shapella will allow investors to redeem their ETH coins they have invested and locked on the network over the past 3 years in exchange for interest.
Traders are now trying to figure out how this sudden flood of cryptocurrency can affect its price. Some market participants are concerned that the unlock could lead to a massive wave of sales, which in turn would drive the price down dramatically. However, the only thing that can be said for sure is that the hard fork will cause an increase in price volatility.

- Dieter Wermuth, an economist, and partner at Wermuth Asset Management, believes that the economy would be better and simpler without bitcoin. In his opinion, these risky investments are associated with social costs, and the cryptocurrency itself does not contribute to global prosperity.
The BTC market is highly centralized and primarily benefits the very first investors and miners. If we consider it as a currency, given the high volatility and lack of real use, BTC is doomed to failure, the specialist believes. In this vein, it makes sense to ditch bitcoin altogether: it could be good for shared prosperity, as investing in cryptocurrencies is wasteful and takes away funds from overall economic growth. In addition, bitcoin creates social inequality, allows for money laundering, tax evasion, and is very energy intensive due to mining. Dieter Wermuth even called bitcoin “the biggest climate killer.”

- It turns out that Apple has been hiding the official description of BTC in every computer since 2018. Technician Andy Baio revealed on Twitter that he accidentally found a copy of Satoshi Nakamoto's official description of BTC on his Apple Mac computer, Business Insider writes. Baio explained it this way: “Today, while trying to fix my printer, I discovered that a PDF copy of Satoshi Nakamoto’s bitcoin datasheet came with every copy of macOS since Mojave in 2018.” According to him, many of his fellow Mac users confirmed this fact: each of them had a file called "simpledoc.pdf".
Baio suggested the reason why, of all the documents, it was the original description of BTC that was chosen to be included in Apple's operating system: "Maybe it was just a convenient, lightweight, multi-page PDF file for testing purposes that was never meant to be viewed by end users."

- The US Department of Defense commissioned a study on the potential collapse of the economy due to the cryptocurrency market. Inca Digital, an analytical blockchain firm, won the competition for this work. A representative of this company noted in comments to the media that the banking system has increasingly intersected with the crypto market recently, and this connection makes this market a subject of national security: “Cryptocurrencies are no longer an independent vertical. They rely on banks, the internet, and that's what people should be warned about: it's a single combined system that is widespread in everyday services." Defense Department officials, in turn, expect the development to shed light on whether hostile groups or nations can use digital currencies against the US.

- U.S. potential presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr called bitcoin a safe haven that, thanks to decentralization, is less exposed to the risks inherent in traditional finance. The politician is confident that the current “financial bubble” will inevitably burst, and cryptocurrencies “will allow people to hide from its splashes” and open up a “way of salvation” for society.

– Lawrence Lepard, managing partner at Boston-based equity firm Equity Management Associates, believes that bitcoin will rise to $10 million due to the collapse of the US dollar. According to Lepard, the dollar will depreciate over the next 10 years, and citizens will begin to actively invest in cryptocurrencies, gold and real estate. The supply of bitcoins is limited, so the digital asset will become a highly sought-after investment vehicle and will benefit from the collapse of the fiat currency. “I believe that the price of bitcoin will go up a lot. I think it will first reach $100,000, then $1 million and eventually rise to $10 million per coin. I’m sure my grandchildren will be shocked at how rich people who own just one bitcoin become,” Lepard said in an interview.
In connection with this forecast, the businessman fears that the authorities will put spokes in the wheels of the crypto industry, trying to slow down the growth in the popularity of digital assets. For example, officials could raise taxes on profits from bitcoin trading and tighten regulation of coins to make it harder for startups to enter the market. However, Lepard is confident that bitcoin will be able to overcome these difficulties and succeed in the long run.

- A well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB noted that bitcoin has left the deep bear zone and is at the very beginning of a new bull market. According to PlanB, the Stock to Flow (S2F) model he developed is still relevant. The expert claims that bitcoin fundamentals will eventually allow it to rise above the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 set in November 2021. PlanB has previously predicted bitcoin will rise from $100,000 to $1 million after the 2024 halving.
Recall that the S2F (stock-to-flow ratio) model for predicting the BTC rate measures the relationship between the available stock of an asset and its production volume and has been repeatedly criticized by members of the crypto community.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 16, 2023, 01:40:29 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 17 - 21, 2023


EUR/USD: The Dollar Continues to Sink

(https://i.imgur.com/qjJXYFQ.jpg)

The DXY dollar index updated a 12-month low last week, and EUR/USD, respectively, rose to a maximum (1.1075) since April 04, 2022. The US currency has been falling for the fifth week in a row: the longest series since summer 2020.

The dollar received a serious blow on Wednesday, April 12, when data on consumer inflation (CPI) and the minutes of the March US Federal Reserve FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting were published. Statistics showed that prices are under control and inflation in the US has been consistently slowing down for nine consecutive months, going from 9.1% y/y to the current 5.0% y/y. The US Producer Price Index (PPI), released a day later, also showed a decrease in inflation, although at the basic level, US price pressure still looks stable.

With regard to the Fed Protocol, at the meeting on March 22, FOMC members discussed the possibility of taking a pause in the rate hike cycle due to problems in the banking sector. Information about a possible mild recession in the US economy later this year was also discussed. However, the rate is likely to be raised again at the next meeting of the Committee on May 3. According to CME FedWatch forecasts, it is likely to grow by another 25 basis points (bp) to 5.25% per annum.

This increase has already been taken into account by the market in quotes and is unlikely to provide any support to the dollar. Moreover, 5.25% is likely to be the peak value of the rate, until the last months of the year, when it starts to decline. The futures market expects that federal funds spending will be 4.30-4.40% in December 2023, and they will fall even lower to 4.12-4.20% in January 2024.

Slower inflation and the end of the Fed's tight monetary policy cycle are putting pressure on the dollar, pushing the DXY down. At the same time, forecasts suggest that, unlike the Fed, the European Central Bank will continue its tightening cycle for now. This was confirmed by the Member of the Board of Governors of the ECB, President of the Bundesbank Joachim Nagel. He said on Thursday, April 13 that it is necessary to continue raising rates, as core inflation in the Eurozone is still very high.

Data on retail sales in the US released at the very end of the working week, on Friday, April 14 slightly supported the US currency. They showed that sales, although falling, were much slower than expected. With the forecast of -0.4% and the previous value of -0.2%, in reality, the decline was -0.1%. Market participants regarded such dynamics in favor of the dollar, and as a result, EUR/USD ended the last week at 1.0993. At the time of writing the review, on Friday evening, April 14, analysts' opinions are almost equally divided: 45% of them expect the dollar to further weaken, 45% expect it to strengthen, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, all oscillators and trend indicators on D1 are 100% colored green. The nearest support for the pair is at 1.0975, then 1.0925, 1.0865-1.0885, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620 and 1.0490-1.0530. Bulls will meet resistance at 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280 and 1.1355-1.1390.

We expect quite a lot of economic statistics from the EU next week. Thus, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in Germany, the main locomotive of the European economy, will be published on Tuesday, April 18. On Wednesday, we will find out what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone as a whole. On Thursday, the Minutes of the last meeting of the ECB on monetary policy will be published, and on Friday, April 21, business activity indicators (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of Germany and in the country as a whole will become known. No significant macro statistics are expected from the US next week.

GBP/USD: Things Are Much Better Than Expected

Against the backdrop of the dollar weakening, GBP/USD still feels good, and it made another high in the first half of Friday, April 14, reaching the height of 1.2545. The pound has not traded this high since the beginning of June 2022. However, then, after the publication of data on retail sales in the US, the dollar improved its position, and the pair completed the five-day period at the level of 1.2414.

As for the UK economy itself, the GDP release on Thursday 13 April showed that the economy stagnated at 0.0% in February, compared with the forecast of 0.1% and the previous reading of 0.3%. The growth of production in the manufacturing industry in February was also 0.0% against the expected 0.2% and -0.1% in January, while the total industrial output is still in the negative zone -0.2% against the forecast of 0.2% and -0.5% a month earlier. On an annualized basis, manufacturing output came in at -2.4%, beating expectations of -4.7%. The total volume of industrial production decreased by -3.1% against the forecast -3.7% and the previous value -3.2%. Data on the trade balance of goods in the UK was also published last week, which in February amounted to £17.534 billion, which is more than the forecast of £17.000 billion and the previous value of £16.093 billion.

What do all these numbers say? Together with the data on business activity (PMI), which became known on April 03 and remained above 50 points, all these statistics give investors hope that the British economy is able to avoid a recession. Which, in turn, supports the position of the national currency. This was confirmed on April 13 by British Treasury Secretary Jeremy Hunt, who said that the economic outlook looks brighter than expected. “Thanks to the steps we have taken, we will avoid a recession,” he assured the audience.

The Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Hugh Pill's comments were quite optimistic as well. According to him, although "the exact path of inflation may be more uneven than we expect," the Central Bank still forecasts a decrease in CPI in Q2 of this year. "The latest figures are somewhat disappointing," said Hugh Pill, "but they are much better than the BoE's forecasts made at the end of last year." The economist also noted that the UK banking system remains very sound and resilient, and inflationary dynamics is a key factor determining the direction of BoE's monetary policy.

At the moment, 75% of experts side with the pound and expect further growth of the pair, the remaining 25% side with the dollar. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 65% vote in favor of green (10% give overbought signals), 10% have turned red and 25% prefer neutral gray. Among the trend indicators, the advantage is also on the side of the greens, they have 65%, the enemy has 35%. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2440-1.2455, 1.2480, 1.2510-1.2540, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2820 and 1.2940.

Among the events of the coming week, the calendar can and should note the publication of the latest unemployment data in the United Kingdom on Tuesday, April 18. On Wednesday, the value of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known, and on Friday the statistics on retail sales and business activity (PMI) in the UK will be published.

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan Is an Island of Stability

Since last December, USD/JPY has been moving in a fairly wide sideways range of 129.00-138.00. (An exception is the brief strengthening of the yen to 127.15 in mid-January). The pair ended the last week almost in its very center, at the level of 133.75, which indicates the absence of significant drivers capable of giving the pair a powerful acceleration in one direction or another.

We have repeatedly written that even after Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), leaves his post, the Central Bank “will continue to support his adequate and expedient policy.” This was once again confirmed by Kazuo Ueda, the new head of the regulator, who took office on April 9. He stated at the G20 meeting that he would support the current ultra-soft monetary policy. In addition, Ueda said that core consumer inflation in Japan, which is currently only about 3%, is likely to fall below 2% in the second half of this fiscal year. Market participants concluded from these words that there is no point in fighting it by raising rates for the Bank of Japan, and therefore it is not worth expecting a reversal of the BoJ rate in the foreseeable future. (Recall that economists at Societe Generale and ANZ Bank expected that this could still happen somewhere around June).

Regarding the immediate prospects for USD/JPY, analysts' opinions are distributed as follows. At the moment, 40% of experts vote for the further movement of the pair to the north, 50% point in the opposite direction and 10% prefer neutrality. Among oscillators, 75% point upwards at D1 (a third of them are in the overbought zone), 10% look in the opposite direction and 15% are neutral. For trend indicators, 85% point to the north, the remaining 15% point to the south. The nearest support level is located in the zone 132.80-133.00, then there are levels and zones 132.00-132.40, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15 and 127.20. Levels and resistance zones are 134.00, 134.90-135.10, 135.90-136.00, 137.00, 137.50 and 137.90-138.00.

As for the release of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, it is not expected this week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Weak Dollar Is Strong Bitcoin

Bitcoin rose above $30,000 on Tuesday, April 11, for the first time since June 2022. This happened due to instability in the banking sector and expectations that mega-regulators, primarily the Fed, will suspend raising interest rates. The MSCI World Index rose to its highest point since early February by Friday, April 14. This confirmed the fact that international investors are waiting for the American, and in the future, for other major Central Banks to curtail the policy of quantitative tightening (QT). Against this background, the main cryptocurrency continues to outperform other major asset classes, such as gold or oil. In addition, BTC has surpassed many top cryptocurrencies in terms of dynamics.

In the middle of the week, the bears had a chance to return BTC/USD to the support of $29,000. However, the FRS saved it from falling again: the published Minutes of the March FOMC meeting, coupled with macro statistics from the US, weakened the dollar, swinging the scales in favor of bitcoin.

The growth of BTC quotes pulls up the entire crypto market. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has grown by more than 55% since the beginning of 2023, rising above $1.2 trillion. However, despite this, it still remains well below the all-time high of $2.9 trillion recorded in November 2021.

Several experts at once expressed their opinion on what happened on April 11. Michael Van De Poppe, a well-known strategist and founder of the investment company Eight, noted that bitcoin successfully passed the $28,600 test, which led to a breakthrough in resistance and reached $30,000. An analyst with the nickname PlanB tweeted that all the goals he set back in October 2022 have now been achieved. At that time, the expert predicted that BTC quotes would overcome $21,000, $24,000, and then $30,000. And another popular blogger and analyst, Lark Davis, stressed that the time will soon come when buying bitcoins for less than $30,000 will seem as fantastic as buying BTC at $3,000 now.

As of this writing, Friday evening April 14, BTC/USD is trading at $30,440. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.276 trillion ($1.177 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index rose from 64 to 68 in seven days and is still in the Greed zone. But what's next?

A well-known analyst under the nickname PlanB noted that bitcoin has left the deep bear zone and is at the very beginning of a new bull market. According to PlanB, the Stock to Flow (S2F) model he developed is still relevant. The expert claims that bitcoin fundamentals will eventually allow it to rise above the all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 set in November 2021. PlanB has previously predicted bitcoin will rise from $100,000 to $1 million after the 2024 halving. (Recall that the S2F (stock-to-flow ratio) model for predicting the BTC rate measures the relationship between the available supply of an asset and its production volume and has been repeatedly criticized by members of the crypto community).

Larry Lepard, managing partner at Boston-based equity firm Equity Management Associates, also looks extremely optimistic in the long-term outlook. According to him, the dollar will depreciate over the next 10 years, and citizens will begin to actively invest in cryptocurrencies, gold and real estate. The supply of bitcoins is limited, so the digital asset will become a highly sought-after investment vehicle and will benefit from the collapse of the fiat currency. “I believe that the price of bitcoin will go up a lot. I think it will first reach $100,000, then $1 million and eventually rise to $10 million per coin. I’m sure my grandchildren will be shocked at how rich people who own just one bitcoin become,” Lepard said in an interview.

In connection with this forecast, the businessman fears that the authorities will put spokes in the wheels of the crypto industry, trying to slow down the growth in the popularity of digital assets. For example, officials could raise taxes on profits from bitcoin trading and tighten regulation of coins to make it harder for startups to enter the market. However, Lepard is confident that bitcoin will be able to overcome these difficulties and succeed in the long run.

Many analysts agree that long-term macro conditions do point to a possible rise in BTC. But their estimates are much more restrained in relation to the current rally. This is due to the fact that bitcoin liquidity is now much lower than in the same period last year. This is manifested in a greater price dispersion among the leading exchanges. (In the previous review, we wrote that on the one hand, there is an increase in trading volumes, and on the other hand, a decrease in BTC liquidity to a 10-month low).

Although, of course, the prospects for this year will largely depend on the actions of the leading Central banks led by the Fed. Recall that the record capitalization of the crypto market in November 2021 was also the result of the actions of this regulator, which then flooded the economy with a huge amount of cheap money (the M2 monetary unit grew by 39%, which is an anomaly by historical standards). Moreover, interest rates were near zero levels at the time, which led to the emergence of a bubble in the market for risky assets, including stocks and digital currencies. The Fed then moved from quantitative easing (QE) to quantitative tightening (QT) through the fastest interest-rate hike cycle in 40 years, and... the bubble burst.

Speaking about the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency, it is impossible not to mention those who still consider it a bubble and predict its final collapse. Dieter Wermuth, an economist and partner at Wermuth Asset Management, said last week that the economy would be better and simpler without bitcoin. In his opinion, these risky investments are associated with social costs, and the cryptocurrency itself does not contribute to global prosperity. If we consider bitcoin as a currency, then, given the high volatility and lack of real use, BTC is doomed to failure. In this vein, it makes sense to ditch bitcoin altogether: it could be good for shared prosperity, as investing in cryptocurrencies is wasteful and takes away funds from overall economic growth. In addition, bitcoin creates social inequality, allows for money laundering, tax evasion, and is very energy intensive due to mining. Dieter Wermuth even called bitcoin “the biggest climate killer.”

Cryptocurrency opponents received unexpected support from … artificial intelligence. ChatGPT Bot spoke about the formation of a recession-resistant investment portfolio. According to a document published by the Gold IRA Guide, it recommended allocating 20% for gold and other precious metals. The rest of its hypothetical portfolio consisted of bonds (40%), "defensive" stocks (30%) and cash (10%). The chatbot did not mention cryptocurrencies, much to the delight of well-known bitcoin critic and gold advocate Peter Schiff. “After all, artificial intelligence is pretty smart. It did not recommend any bitcoin deposit,” this investor wrote.

By the way, answering the question of which cryptocurrency is the most promising today, ChatGPT did not name bitcoin, but ethereum. Artificial intelligence, of course, did not know about the latest events, but it seems to have hit the mark. In the last review, we detailed the Shapella hard fork, which will allow validators to withdraw the frozen ETH coins they have invested and locked on the network over the past 3 years in exchange for interest. Investors and traders were worried that an unlock could lead to a massive selling wave and, as a result, a sharp drop in the price. However, we are still seeing the opposite process: on May 13, ETH/USD rose above $2,000, and on the evening of Friday, April 14, it is trading in the $2,100 zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 18, 2023, 02:39:00 PM
NordFX Wins Two Nominations at the Finance Derivative Awards

(https://i.imgur.com/r6r6awp.jpg)

Finance Derivative magazine announced the Awards 2023. Among the awardees is the NordFX brokerage company, which won in two categories at once: "Most Transparent Forex Brokerage Company UAE 2023" and "Best Forex Affiliate Program South East Asia 2023".

Finance Derivative is a print and online publication that publishes news and insights about the financial industry. It was founded in 2017 and provides its readers with information on financial technology, investment, banking, and other topics related to the financial sector. Finance Derivative's readership includes financial industry professionals, among them bankers, traders, analysts, consultants, investors, and managers.

In addition to publications, Finance Derivative hosts the annual Awards to celebrate outstanding achievements in the financial industry. The award includes several categories, such as "Best Bank", "Best Investment Fund", "Best Financial Startup", "Best Broker" and others. The award is given by a team of journalists and experts from the financial industry who conduct in-depth analysis and evaluation of candidates and decide who deserves the award. Past winners include such world-famous organizations as Barclays Bank and JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock investment fund, Visa and Revolut payment systems.

In 2023, the brokerage company NordFX is among the winners. «Finance Derivative would like to congratulate you and offers special recognition and appreciation for your outstanding performance and dedication to excellence. Honoring your outstanding performance, we are delighted to announce that Nord FX is the Winner 2023 for the Category "Most Transparent Forex Brokerage Company UAE 2023" and "Best Forex Affiliate Program South East Asia 2023".
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 19, 2023, 03:24:22 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/OFwLZQP.jpg)

- Bobby Lee, founder of the Ballet app and former CEO of the BTCC China crypto exchange, noted signs of bitcoin recovery after the 2022 crypto winter in an interview with Bloomberg TV. “It has been like this for a long time. Cryptocurrency has these four-year cycles [...] and now we're almost back on track. It looks inspiring,” said the industry veteran.
According to Lee, amid the banking crisis, digital currencies have demonstrated the qualities of safe-haven assets. “People have begun to realize that their money in the bank is not necessarily in place. Institutions lend these funds to other enterprises and firms. And cryptocurrencies like bitcoin provide self-storage and full control over resources,” he said.
Lee also commented on the regulatory framework for US financial markets, calling it “the most mature and established regulatory regime.” According to the head of Ballet, supervisory agencies like the SEC, after a decade of calls for tougher policies regarding the crypto industry, have changed it to a more favorable one. Lee was also enthusiastic about the adoption of digital asset regulations in Hong Kong. In his opinion, the decisions of the authorities of both jurisdictions demonstrate a global shift towards the recognition of cryptocurrencies.

- Anthony Scaramucci, former White House Communications Director and founder of SkyBridge Capital, said he has not lost his enthusiasm for bitcoin. The investor added that he is more optimistic about the first cryptocurrency than ever.
Unlike Bobby Lee, he criticized the head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, for the "mess" in the department. Scaramucci believes that the first cryptocurrency should be classified as a commodity and not subject to regulation by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.

- Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz named the condition for bitcoin to reach $40,000. In his opinion, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will rise to this level when the US Federal Reserve starts to reduce the key rate. “The most profitable trades have been and will continue to be longs on gold, euro, bitcoin and Ethereum: these assets will do well when the Fed stops raising [the base rate] and starts lowering it,” Novogratz said. He also predicted a reduction in loans amid the collapse of US banks. In his opinion, this could lead to a credit crisis, and the Fed, against the background of a “slowdown in the economy”, will have to cut the rate more aggressively than expected.
Galaxy Digital CEO called the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission) lawsuit against the Binance bitcoin exchange, filed at the end of March, and its accusation of intentionally violating the rules established by the agency as the main uncertainty for the cryptocurrency market.

- Ark Invest has looked beyond Mike Novogratz and has announced the timeline for bitcoin to reach $1 million. “In the next decade, the value of bitcoin could reach $1 million as the digital economy grows,” said Yassine Elmandjra, an analyst at the company. He acknowledged that the 30x coin price growth forecast looks incredible, but it is “quite reasonable” if you look at the history of cryptocurrency development.
According to the Ark Invest analyst, statements that it is now too late to invest in BTC are wrong. The expert noted the impressive performance of bitcoin in recent times, which now makes digital gold an attractive component of investment portfolios. According to Elmandjra, a reasonable share of bitcoin in institutions should be between 2.5% and 6.5%, depending on the overall return of the portfolio and risk appetite.

- Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular book Rich Dad Poor Dad, spoke again this week about the inevitability of financial turmoil and called on investors to invest more in bitcoin, gold and silver. The businessman promised that he would increase reserves in digital currency in the near future, as he does not trust the US Federal Reserve and the economic policies of the Joe Biden administration. “Why buy more gold, silver and bitcoin? Because the Fed, Treasury and Biden are liars!” Kioysaki said. According to his forecast, if large capital becomes more active in physical and digital gold, their price will rise to $5,000 and $500,000 by 2025, respectively.

- According to a report by Matrixport researchers, the price of bitcoin hit its predicted low in November 2022. The analysts explained that BTC historically bottomed out 515-458 days before the next halving. This event is scheduled for April 2024; hence the predicted low was between November 2022 and January 2023. That's what happened. This gives reason to expect that this model will continue to work further, and the value of the coin will rise to at least $63,160 by the spring of 2024.
In addition, the experts noted an interesting point. Their observations showed that American investors are more willing to invest in bitcoin, while their Asian counterparts prefer ethereum.

- Analyst Nicholas Merten is of an opposite opinion. He announced in a new video on DataDash to his 511,000 subscribers that it's time to sell bitcoin, as the first cryptocurrency has grown by almost 100% since November 2022. Merten believes that the first cryptocurrency's latest breakthrough could be a trap, as crypto markets were overbought.
The expert disagrees with those who believe that bitcoin will follow the 2019 scenario, when it rose by 300% in a few months. According to him, the scenario of June 2021 is likely to be repeated, when BTC reached its historical high and then collapsed.

- The creators of the famous chatbot ChatGPT have banned it from directly providing cryptocurrency forecasts.  It turned out that it is very often wrong, and it is still unknown which algorithms it uses for its predictions. In addition, AI is not able to correctly interpret a lot of important data. These include, in particular, new posts on social networks by well-known analysts. Namely, many traders and investors rely on them when making decisions. Also, ChatGPT is unable to predict the occurrence of certain significant events on the crypto market, which reduces the accuracy of its forecasts significantly.
Based on the foregoing, it becomes obvious that the chatbot can only be used as an auxiliary tool, nothing more. It is extremely risky to create trading strategies and make trading decisions based on it. However, despite this, some users use various tricks to get around the ban, in the hope that a miracle will happen and ChatGPT will open their way to wealth.

- Owners of Android devices are at risk of becoming victims of a new virus that pretends to be the CoinSpot crypto exchange. This is reported by Cyble researchers who identified the Trojan. The list of the virus's functionality includes the ability to steal user credentials, cookies, and SMS messages.
Fraudsters also steal credit card information under the guise of subscribing to a chatbot. It was reported earlier that attackers began to distribute viruses under the guise of desktop versions of the ChatGPT chat bot from OpenAI. Thus, the Android and Windows operating systems were at risk.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 22, 2023, 03:19:41 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for April 24 - 28, 2023


EUR/USD: Rate Forecast: USD +0.25%, EUR +0.50%

Due to the lack of significant economic news, the EUR/USD dynamics in recent days has been determined by statements by representatives of mega-regulators regarding interest rate hikes at the upcoming meetings of the US Federal Reserve on May 2/3 and the ECB on May 4.

The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rose following a statement from Federal Reserve representative Christopher Waller, who said that despite the most aggressive monetary policy tightening since the 1980s, the Fed has "not made substantial progress" in returning inflation to its target level of 2%, and that interest rates still need to be raised. As a result, DXY broke through the resistance of 102.00 on Monday, April 17 and reached the level of 102.22.

Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, seemed to support his colleague, but at the same time said that "another increase should be enough for us to step back and see how our policy affects the economy."

According to Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, the US Central Bank may soon finish raising interest rates, after which there may be a pause of almost a year and a half. "Since the full impact of monetary policy measures on the economy can take up to 18 months, we will continue to carefully analyze available data to determine what additional actions we may need to take," said Harker, speaking as part of the Wharton Initiative on Financial Policy and Regulation.

Another member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, agreed that the Fed is close to completing the rate hike cycle. However, since inflation in the U.S. remains too high, Mester believes that "the interest rate needs to be raised to a level above 5% and maintained there for some time." At the same time, Ms. Mester did not specify how much "above" 5% (as the current rate is already at 5.00%) and what duration constitutes "some time."

On Wednesday, April 19th, the Beige Book was published: an economic review by the Federal Reserve, which is based on the reporting documents of the 12 Federal Reserve Banks that make up its system. The analysis of the document's content can be summarized in the following points: 1) economic conditions have somewhat cooled in recent weeks, while inflation continues to remain relatively high; 2) wage growth has slightly slowed down but also remains high; 3) the overall price level moderately increased during the reporting period, although the pace of price growth appears to have slowed down.

Taking into account the content of the Beige Book and the statements of FOMC members, the market concluded that the regulator will raise the rate by another 25 bps (basis points) at its meeting on May 2/3, after which it will take a pause. According to the WIRP forecast, the probability of such a rate hike is now about 90%, compared to 80% at the beginning of last week and 50% at the beginning of April. And this is already included in the price. The quotes still take into account one possible rate cut at the end of the year (two cuts were previously predicted).

More clarity may appear in early summer. But two more employment reports, two CPI/PPI reports and one retail sales report will be released between the May 2/3 and June 13/14 meetings. It is clear that all these data can seriously affect the further policy of the Federal Reserve.

As for the situation on the other side of the Atlantic, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Wednesday, April 19, showed that inflation in the Eurozone fell from 8.5% to 6.9% y/y. But since such a decline was fully consistent with the forecast, it did not have much impact on the pair's quotes.

The Minutes of the ECB's March monetary policy meeting were published the next day, on Thursday, May 20. According to this document, the overwhelming majority of the members of the Governing Board agreed with the proposal of Chief Economist Philip Lane to raise the key rate by 50 bps, after which it will reach 4.00%.

The situation described above led to the fact that the DXY Dollar Index consolidated in the area of 101.70-102.00, and EUR/USD stayed in the range of 1.0910-1.1000. S&P Global made a small contribution at the very end of the working week, it published preliminary data on the US Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for April. With a forecast of 52.8 and a previous value of 52.3, the Composite PMI came in at 53.7, which supported a certain degree of optimism regarding the state of the U.S. economy. But not for long.  As a result, EUR/USD put the last chord almost at the upper limit of the weekly channel, at around 1.0988.

At the time of writing, on the evening of Friday, April 21, analysts' opinions are divided almost equally: 35% of them expect further weakening of the dollar, 35% - its strengthening, and the remaining 30% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, all the trend indicators on D1 are colored green, as for the oscillators, these are 85%, 15% have changed color to red. The nearest support for the pair is located in the area of 1.0925-1.0955, then 1.0865-1.0885, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620 and 1.0490-1.0530. The bulls will find resistance around 1.1000-1.1015, then 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280 and 1.1355-1.1390.

We expect a lot of economic statistics next week, especially from the United States. The US Consumer Confidence Index will be known on Tuesday, April 25. The next day, statistics on the volume of orders for capital goods and durable goods will be received from the United States. On Thursday, April 27, data on unemployment and GDP will be known, and on Friday - on personal consumption expenditures in the United States. At the very end of the working week, there will also be a lot of information about the state of the economy of Germany, the main locomotive of the EU. These are the country's GDP indicators, unemployment data, as well as such an important indicator of inflation as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). However, one thing not to expect in the upcoming week is speeches from Federal Reserve representatives, as a silence period began on April 21 and will last until the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the May meeting, with no other statements being made during this time.

GBP/USD: Things Are Not as Bad, But Not as Good Either

The inflation data for March in the United Kingdom, published on Wednesday, May 19, turned out to be not very bad, but not quite good either: in March, the CPI dropped from 10.4% YoY to only 10.1%, while the market was expecting a decline to 9.8%. The fact that consumer prices remain high has given reason to expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue to raise interest rates. And this, in turn, supported the British currency a little.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global/CIPS Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the UK manufacturing sector, with a growth forecast of 48.5, has actually fallen from 47.9 to 46.6 over the month. On the other hand, the preliminary Index of business activity in the service sector presented a surprise: with the forecast and the March value of 52.9, it jumped to 54.9 in April. Thus, the composite PMI improved from 52.2 in March to 53.9 in April.

Commenting on this positive outcome, Dr John Glen, Chief Economist at the UK's Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS), said it was the fastest recovery for the year, which showed that "businesses are taking advantage of the pockets of recovery emerging in the UK economy, and activity levels have risen sharply thanks to new orders and improved supply chain performance."

The UK Office for National Statistics reported on Friday April 21 that retail sales fell 0.9% in March after a 1.1% increase in February. The data turned out to be weaker than the forecast, which suggested a decline of 0.5%, which put pressure on the pound.

GBP/USD started the past five days at 1.2414, and ended nearby at 1.2442, showing a sideways movement against the background of multidirectional statistics. At the moment, 45% of experts side with the pound and expect further growth of the pair, 35% side with the dollar and 20% vote for the continuation of the sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 35% vote in favor of green, 25% have turned red and 40% prefer neutral gray. Trend indicators are 100% on the side of the greens. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will face resistance at the levels of 1.2450-1.2480, 1.2510-1.2540, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2820 and 1.2940.

No important statistics on the state of the UK economy are expected in the coming week.

USD/JPY: No BoJ Surprises Expected

USD/JPY rose to its highest level in six weeks, reaching the height of 135.13 on April 19. The fall of the yen was exacerbated by the data of the Ministry of Finance on Japan's trade deficit for the 2022 fiscal year. The figure was $160 billion, setting an anti-record since 1979. At the same time, the mood is quite positive in the semi-annual report of the Bank of Japan, published on April 21, since "the Japanese financial system as a whole remains stable," and the expectation of inflation falling to the target 2% runs like a red thread through all statements.

The historic meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will take place next week, on Friday, April 28. Historic not because any revolutionary decisions may be made, but because it will be the first one chaired by the new Central Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda, following the departure of Haruhiko Kuroda. Citing a number of informed sources, Reuters reported that the regulator is likely to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy at this meeting, without making any changes to the interest rate targets and the yield corridor. Recall that the rate is at a negative level of -0.1%, and the last time it changed was on January 29 of 2016, when it was lowered by 20 bps.

Three main factors can support the yen: investor risk flight, the weakening of the dollar due to the easing of the Fed's monetary policy and a decrease in Treasury yields. Recall that there is a direct correlation between ten-year US bonds and USD/JPY. If the yield on Treasury bills falls, the yen shows growth, and the pair forms a downtrend.

USD/JPY ended the last week at the level of 134.12. Regarding its immediate prospects, the opinions of analysts are distributed as follows. At the moment, 35% of experts vote for the growth of the pair, 65% point in the opposite direction, expecting the yen to strengthen. Among the oscillators, 90% point to D1 (10% of them are in the overbought zone), the remaining 10% adhere to neutrality. Trend indicators have 75% looking to the north, 25% pointing to the south. The nearest support level is located in the 134.00 zone, followed by the levels and zones 132.80-133.00, 132.00-132.40, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15 and 127.20. The resistance levels and zones are 134.75-135.15, 135.90-136.00, 137.00, 137.50 and 137.90-138.00.

The meeting of the BoJ and the subsequent press conference of the leadership of this regulator was mentioned above. As for the release of any important statistics on the state of the Japanese economy, it is not expected in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Falls, but Optimism Grows

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The bulls have struggled to keep BTC/USD above the $29,000 support since April 10. However, it still fell on Thursday, April 20, pulling other cryptocurrencies with it and causing a wave of closing long positions. There was no obvious reason for this drawdown, beautifully named Coinglass. Some analysts believe that against the backdrop of a news vacuum, technical signals have come to the fore. And perhaps some growth in the DXY Dollar Index on April 14-17 played a role. But, despite this fall, according to many experts, the prospects for bitcoin look quite optimistic, which is confirmed by both network metrics and macroeconomic factors. Investors' appetites are fueled by a good start of the flagship cryptocurrency, which showed a yield of 70% in Q1. Thanks to this, Goldman Sachs experts called it the most effective financial asset in 2023.

According to analytics agency Glassnode, despite the collapse of FTX and tightening crypto regulation, the holdings of long-term holders (addresses with coins that have been idle for more than 155 days) rose to 14.2 million BTC. This is near the all-time high and suggests that coin owners are counting on their growth in the future.

At the moment, there is no clear understanding of the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. But it is the behavior of the American mega-regulator that is decisive for the dollar exchange rate, and as a result, determines in which direction the BTC/USD scales will swing. Robert Kiyosaki, author of the popular book Rich Dad Poor Dad, spoke again this week about the inevitability of financial turmoil and called on investors to invest more in bitcoin, gold and silver. The businessman promised that he would increase reserves in digital currency in the near future, as he does not trust the US Federal Reserve and the economic policies of the Joe Biden administration. According to Kiyosaki's forecast, if big capital becomes more active in physical and digital gold, their price will rise to $5,000 and $500,000 by 2025, respectively.

It should be noted here that, according to Glassnode, the correlation coefficient between XAU and BTC is growing and now exceeds 0.85. Such a connection of bitcoin with the classic safe-haven asset can provide it with serious support, since gold has already approached its all-time high and is preparing to update it.

Ark Invest looked even further into the future than Robert Kiyosaki and called the timing of bitcoin's reaching $1 million. “In the next decade, the value of bitcoin could reach $1 million as the digital economy grows,” said Yassine Elmandjra, an analyst at the company. He acknowledged that the 30x coin price growth forecast looks incredible, but it is “quite reasonable” if you look at the history of cryptocurrency development.

According to the Ark Invest analyst, statements that it is now too late to invest in BTC are wrong. The expert noted the impressive performance of bitcoin in recent times, which now makes digital gold an attractive component of investment portfolios. According to Elmandjra, a reasonable share of bitcoin in institutions should be between 2.5% and 6.5%, depending on the overall return of the portfolio and risk appetite.

Bobby Lee, the founder of the Ballet app and the former CEO of the BTCC China crypto exchange, have taken a similar position. In his opinion, against the backdrop of the banking crisis, digital currencies have demonstrated the qualities of safe-haven assets. “People have begun to realize that their money in the bank is not necessarily in place. Institutions lend these funds to other enterprises and firms. And cryptocurrencies like bitcoin provide self-storage and full control over resources". At the same time, Lee has noted signs of bitcoin's recovery after the crypto winter of 2022. “It has been like this for a long time. Cryptocurrency has four-year cycles [...] and now we have practically recovered. It looks inspiring,” said the industry veteran.

According to a report by Matrixport researchers, the price of bitcoin hit its predicted low in November 2022. The analysts explained that BTC historically bottomed out 515-458 days before the next halving. This event is scheduled for April 2024; hence the predicted low was between November 2022 and January 2023. And so it happened. This gives reason to expect that this model will continue to work further, and the value of the coin will rise to at least $63,160 by the spring of 2024.

As for the near-term prospects, the analytical agency K33 predicts the growth of BTC/USD by another 50% in the next 30 days. The analysis is based on the surprising similarity of the 2018 and 2022 cycles. So, in both cases, it took about 370 days to reach the bottom from the historical high, and recovery to 60% took another 140 days. Further extrapolation suggests that bitcoin will trade around $45,000 in the last decade of May.

The forecast of Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz looks more modest and stretched in time. In his opinion, the quotes of the first cryptocurrency will rise to $40,000 only when the US Federal Reserve begins to reduce the key rate. “The most profitable trades have been and will continue to be longs on gold, euro, bitcoin and Ethereum: these assets will do well when the Fed stops raising [the base rate] and starts lowering it,” Novogratz said. He also predicted a reduction in loans amid the collapse of US banks. In his opinion, this could lead to a credit crisis, and the Fed, against the background of a “slowdown in the economy”, will have to cut the rate more aggressively than expected.

And of course, against the background of dominant optimism, the forecast of analyst Nicholas Merten looks exactly the opposite. He announced in a new video on DataDash to his 511,000 subscribers that it's time to sell bitcoin, as the first cryptocurrency has grown by almost 100% since November 2022. Merten believes that the first cryptocurrency's latest breakthrough could be a trap, as crypto markets were overbought. The expert disagrees with those who believe that bitcoin will follow the 2019 scenario, when it rose by 300% in a few months. According to him, the scenario of June 2021 is likely to be repeated, when BTC reached its historical high and then collapsed.

At the time of writing, Friday evening, April 21, BTC/USD is trading at $27,305. The total capitalization of the crypto market is $1.153 trillion ($1.276 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 68 to 50 in seven days, and moved from the Greed zone to the very center of the Neutral zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 26, 2023, 12:20:38 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- According to experts from the British bank Standard Chartered, bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2024, which indicates the end of the so-called "crypto winter", writes Reuters. Standard Chartered believes that at the beginning of 2023 bitcoin profitably took advantage of its status as a "brand haven" for savings and a tool for money transfers. Its further growth will be facilitated by recent turmoil in the banking sector, stabilization of risky assets due to the end of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle and increased profitability in crypto mining.
In addition, support for the main cryptocurrency may be provided by the adoption by the European Parliament of the first set of EU rules on the regulation of crypto-asset markets. According to JPMorgan experts, the growth of BTC will also be affected by halving in April 2024.

- The Bitcoin ArcRisk aversione press service reminded that there is less than a year left until the next bitcoin halving. As of April 24, 2023, this procedure is scheduled for April 06, 2024. However, this date is not final and may change, as it has already happened many times before.
A number of market participants believe that this event will be very important for the future value of the flagship cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the cycles for the cryptocurrency are unchanged, and BTC quotes will reach new all-time highs a year or a year and a half after the halving, as happened in previous cycles. Other experts note that the market situation has changed. Bitcoin has become a mass phenomenon and now "other laws and regulations have started to work" for cryptocurrency, so other factors will be decisive, rather than halving.

- Former Goldman Sachs top manager and macro investor Raoul Pal says that the crypto sector will increase from the current 300 million to more than 1 billion users during the next bull cycle. According to him, risky assets like cryptocurrencies are facing an "inevitable wave of liquidity." And such an influx of capital will "illuminate" the industry with new innovations.
The macro investor believes that the Fed has most likely already completed the interest rate hike. He also speaks about the approaching recession, which will force the regulator to "change course" and support the markets by printing money. "This is exactly what happened in 2019 after the Fed's reversal in 2018. The agency will pause very soon or has already done so," Raul Pal explained.

- According to a recent study by DaapGamble, more than a third of TikTok crypto influencers have posted misleading videos about cryptocurrencies and investing in them. Influencers sometimes share unverified misinformation in an attempt to convince inexperienced viewers to invest their money or their parents' money (since many TikTok users are Newbie trader people) in cryptocurrencies, which leads to a loss of funds. Celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, who was ordered by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to pay a fine of $1.26 million for promoting EthereumMax (EMAX), have been criticized.

- After reports of the activation of a bitcoin wallet with 1000 BTC worth more than $27 million, which has been asleep for 12 years, the host of the CNBC program "Crypto Trader" Ran Neuner expressed concern about what was happening. He fears hacking wallets by a special generator, the work of which is based on Artificial Intelligence. "Activating these old BTC addresses can be a really scary phenomenon," Ran Neuner was alarmed. - I hope it's not about hacking. Otherwise, all this can have catastrophic consequences".
It should be noted that such a case of unexpected awakening is far from being the only one. So, an awakened bitcoin whale of the Satoshi era has recently suddenly scattered 400 BTC to several new addresses. And last week, the Whale Alert service reported that another whale with 1128 BTC, after 10.5 years of inactivity, transferred more than 279 BTC worth $7.6 million to new wallets.
These strange events are taking place against the backdrop of a general surge in activity on the bitcoin network: according to Glassnode, the number of transactions exceeds 270,000 per day at the moment, approaching the average monthly cycle highs.

- Billionaire venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya believes that US regulators have "strangled" the cryptocurrency sector, which is now "on the verge of survival" in the United States. This is done out of concern that digital assets could undermine the dominance of the dollar. However, this will only lead to the fact that American crypto companies will be pushed abroad, and the country will be deprived of opportunities for innovation.
"Cryptocurrencies are dead in America. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler blames crypto assets even for the banking crisis, so it's safe to say that the United States authorities have firmly pointed their weapons at them," Palihapitiya said. The billionaire added that now the main blow of regulators is being taken by good players in the crypto industry, who pay for the collapse of the FTX exchange and the bankruptcy of cryptocurrency hedge funds that "planted a stain" on the reputation of the industry.

- An analyst aka DonAlt, who has repeatedly given an accurate forecast for the price movement of bitcoin, believes that the coin is now ready to return to the level of $30,000. At the same time, he allows a correction up to $20,000, which, in his opinion, should be considered a good level for replenishing the stocks of the main cryptocurrency. At the same time, DonAlt excludes its fall to the lows of November 2022 around $15,400.

- An expert and trader under the nickname Doctor Profit recalled his words that bitcoin groped the bottom at the level of $15,400 and it is unlikely that we will see a repeated decline to this mark. According to him, this dump in November 2022 was a complete capitulation, including for bitcoin miners, some of whom were forced to sell the mined coins and their equipment at a loss.
In his opinion, the market is neither in a bull nor in a bear market now, but in an accumulation phase. At the same time, Dr. Profit has advised traders to closely monitor the correlation between the Chinese stock market and BTC. He believes that China will lift the ban on cryptocurrency and legalize it, which will have a very positive impact on the price of cryptocurrencies in the long run.

- Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts predicts a rise in bitcoin to $50,000 even before halving in April 2024. "The price of bitcoin sinks to the bottom when there are 12-18 months left before the halving. The structure of the current cycle is similar to the previous ones. Nevertheless, many factors have changed: the network has become noticeably more stable, but bitcoin has never experienced a long economic downturn, "said Coutts. If his prediction turns out to be correct, bitcoin will rise in price by about 220% by April 2024 from the bottom reached in last November.

- A popular analyst under the nickname PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow model, expects bitcoin to grow significantly. "My predictions continue to come true within the framework of the S2F model. Before halving, you should expect $32,000 per bitcoin, then $60,000. Then [after halving] $100,000 will be the minimum, and the maximum rate can reach $1 million. But, on average, after the next halving, the BTC rate should reach $542,000," PlanB wrote. At the same time, the analyst stressed that the behavior of the crypto market is fully consistent with S2F, so its critics are simply untenable.

- Legendary investor Warren Buffett has called bitcoin "rat poison squared." And he has recently stated that BTC is a token for gambling, noting that "it has no intrinsic value." However, statistics show that the well-known entrepreneur has been wrong in his judgments. If Buffett had added just 2.5% to his portfolio in bitcoins in 2014, this would have increased the investor's total return by 20%.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on April 30, 2023, 12:45:11 PM
NordFX Super Lottery $100,000

(https://i.imgur.com/WX97gMi.jpg)

Your 202+3 Chances to Win in 2023

Participation in the NordFX Super Lottery is a great opportunity to improve your financial situation by winning one or even several large cash prizes. The total prize pool is $100,000 and is divided in 2023 into 202 prizes from $250 to $1,800 plus 3 super prizes of $5,000 each.

The organizer of the Super Lottery is NordFX, an international brokerage company with 15 years of experience in financial markets, which is trusted by clients from 188 countries around the world. All information about the terms of the Super Lottery can be found on the broker's official website NordFX.

As early as 1748, Benjamin Franklin, whose portrait adorns the $100 bill, formulated one of the main financial laws: Time is Money. So, hurry up and don't waste time: the sooner you participate in the lottery (which is not difficult at all), the more likely you are to win there!
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 01, 2023, 11:04:10 AM
April Results: Gold Emerges as the Top Choice Among NordFX's Top 3 Traders Again

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NordFX brokerage company has summed up the performance of its clients' trade transactions in April 2023. The services of social trading, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profit received by the company's IB-partners have also been assessed.

- The maximum profit this month was earned by a client from East Asia, account №1543XXX, who made 25,086 USD through transactions with gold (XAU/USD), bitcoin (BTC/USD), and the Japanese Yen (USD/JPY).

- The second place in the Top 3 was taken by a trader from Southeast Asia, account №1686XXX, with a result of 23,341 USD, which was also achieved through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).

- The same precious metal allowed the owner of account №1687XXX from East Asia to earn a profit of 22,250 USD and secure the third position on the pedestal of honor.

The situation in NordFX passive investment services is as follows:

- In CopyTrading, the long-standing signal "veteran" with a complex name, KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K, continues to be noticeable. Its profit amounted to 348% over the course of 726 days. Let us remind you that this signal faced significant challenges last November, as the maximum drawdown surpassed 67%. In all fairness, it should be noted that such an impressive failure was a one-time occurrence, and KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K has been fairly stable for the rest of the time.
The same provider introduced another signal last December, with an even more intricate name: KennyFXPRO - Variables_RBB 35. In its 144 days of existence, it has demonstrated a modest 27% profit with a reasonably moderate 24% drawdown. If the provider of this signal manages to prevent it from experiencing more serious setbacks, it could potentially become a strong competitor to its "senior colleague" in the future.

The performance of the signal ATFOREXACADEMY ALGO 1, which we discussed in our previous review, ended in disaster. During its initial 100 days, it exhibited a remarkably high yield of 202%. However, April proved to be extremely unfavorable for it, with a drawdown of over 90%, once again reminding us that trading in financial markets is a highly risky endeavor.

Lastly, in reviewing April, the startup signal Trade2win deserves attention. Existing for just one month, it has shown an impressive outcome on gold trades, with a return of 2,290% and a maximum drawdown of less than 15%. Relentless statistics indicate that even less aggressive trading strategies can lead to a complete loss of funds, thus investors must exercise extreme caution. We will observe and see what happens with this signal in May.

 - Two accounts, which we have previously mentioned in our past reviews, are still present on the PAMM service showcase. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. They suffered serious losses in mid-November 2022: the drawdown at that moment approached 43%. However, the PAMM managers have decided not to give up, and as of April 30, 2023, the profit on the first account has approached 90%, while on the second account it has surpassed 58%.

In April, we continued to monitor the Trade and earn account. It was opened more than a year ago, but was in a state of hibernation, waking up only in November. As a result, the yield on it has exceeded 76% over the past 6 months with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among the IB partners, NordFX TOP-3 is as follows:
- the largest commission, 5,348 USD, was credited to a partner from West Asia, account No.1621ХXХ;
- next is partner from South Asia, account No.1618XXX, who received 3,991 USD;
- finally, their compatriot with account №1517XXX completes the top three, earning a reward of $3,876 USD.

***

In summarizing the month, it is important to remind traders that they now have an excellent opportunity to boost their budget. NordFX has launched another super lottery for its clients this year, in which over 200 cash prizes totaling 100,000 USD will be drawn. It is very easy to take part in the lottery and get a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All the details are available on the NordFX website.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 01, 2023, 12:05:54 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 1 - 5, 2023


EUR/USD: Awaiting Fed and ECB Meetings

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The main factor determining the dynamics of the US Dollar Index (DXY) and, consequently, the EUR/USD pair last week was… silence. If recently, the speeches of Federal Reserve representatives were almost the most important market guide, then a silence regime has been in effect since April 21. Leading up to the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell following the FOMC's May meeting, all officials are instructed to maintain silence. Only a few days remain until the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, where a decision regarding the regulator's future monetary policy will be made, scheduled for May 2/3. Furthermore, on Thursday, May 4, there will be a meeting of the European Central Bank, where an interest rate decision will also be made. In general, the upcoming five-day period promises to be, at the very least, not dull.

Of course, macroeconomic data and events from both sides of the Atlantic caused certain fluctuations in EUR/USD last week. However, the final result was close to zero: if on Friday, May 21, the last chord sounded at the 1.0988 mark, then on Friday, May 28, it was placed not far away: at the 1.1015 level.

One event worth highlighting was the publication of the First Republic Bank (FRC) report, which ranks among the top 30 US banks by market capitalization. It was this report that led to the dollar's decline and the pair's surge by more than 100 points on Wednesday, April 26.

It seemed that the banking crisis caused by the tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy (QT) was beginning to fade... US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen even assured the public of the resilience of the banking sector. But then... a new flare-up called First Republic Bank (FRC). To prevent its bankruptcy and support its liquidity in Q1 2023, a consortium of banks transferred $30 billion in uninsured deposits to FRC. Another $70 billion in the form of credit was provided by JPMorgan. However, this was not enough: the bank's clients began to scatter, and FRC shares collapsed by 45% in two days and by 95% since the beginning of the year. In March alone, clients withdrew $100 billion from the bank. Thus, First Republic Bank has a very high chance of becoming number 4 in the lineup of bankrupted major US banks. And if the Fed does not stop its QT cycle, there is a very high probability that numbers 5, 6, 7, and so on will appear on this list.

However, as we have already detailed in our previous review, at the meeting on May 2/3, the key rate will be raised by only 25 basis points (FedWatch from CME estimates the probability of this at 72%). After that, the US Central bank is likely to take a pause. As stated by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, "one more increase should be enough for us to step back and see how our policy is reflected in the economy." It should be noted that the 25 bp rate hike has long been factored into market quotations. Therefore, immediately after the news about FRC and the surge to 1.1095, EUR/USD returned to a comfortable state for itself.

At the time of writing the review, on Friday evening, April 28, analysts' opinions were divided as follows: 35% of them expect the dollar to weaken and the pair to rise, 50% expect it to strengthen, and the remaining 15% have taken a neutral position. As for technical analysis, among oscillators on D1, 85% are coloured green, 15% are neutral-grey, among trend indicators, 90% are green, and 10% have changed to red. The nearest support for the pair is located in the area of 1.0985-1.1000, followed by 1.0925-1.0955, 1.0865-1.0885, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620, and 1.0490-1.0530. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280, and 1.1355-1.1390.

In addition to the aforementioned FOMC and ECB meetings, we can expect a substantial amount of economic data next week. On Monday, May 1, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for the US will be published. The next day, the value of a similar index, but for Germany, will become known. Also, on Tuesday, May 2, we will learn about the inflation situation in the Eurozone, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released. Furthermore, on May 2, 3, 4, and 5, we will get a flurry of US labour market data. Important indicators such as the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs in the US (NFP) are among these, they will traditionally be published on the first Friday of the month, May 5.

GBP/USD: BoE vs. Fed: Who Will Win the Battle of Interest Rates?

The Bank of England (BoE) meeting will take place a week after the Fed's meeting, on Thursday, May 11. Most experts believe that the cycle of interest rate hikes for the pound is not yet over, which supports the British currency.

Recent data on inflation for March contribute to these forecasts. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in annual terms once again reached a double-digit figure, 10.1%, which is higher than the forecast of 9.8%. To bring this indicator below the psychologically important mark of 10.0%, the BoE is highly likely to continue following the Fed's example. Market participants expect the regulator to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points on May 11: from 4.25% to 4.75%. No more effective ways to curb inflation have been devised so far. And if it continues to remain so high, it will harm both the consumer market and the overall UK economy.

Since the beginning of April, we have observed a sideways trend. However, GBP/USD finished the past five-day period at the 1.2566 mark, unexpectedly breaking the upper boundary of the channel. Perhaps the reason for the jump was the closing of trading positions at the end of the month. Currently, 75% of experts are in favor of the dollar, and only 25% side with the British pound. Among oscillators on D1, the balance of power is as follows: 85% vote in favor of the green (with a third of them being in the overbought zone), and the remaining 15% have turned neutral-grey. Trend indicators are 100% on the green side. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2450-1.2480, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, and 1.1800-1.1840. As the pair moves north, it will encounter resistance at the levels of 1.2510-1.2540, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

Regarding important statistics on the state of the UK economy for the upcoming week, on Tuesday, May 2, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be published. Then, on May 4, we will learn the value of the PMI for the services sector as well as the composite business activity indicator for the UK as a whole. Traders should also be aware that there will be a bank holiday in the country on Monday, May 1.

USD/JPY: Bank of Japan - Heading for Softer Ultra-Soft Policy

Forecasting the interest rate of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is quite simple and very, very boring. As a reminder, it is currently at a negative level of -0.1% and was last changed on January 29 of the distant 2016, when it was lowered by 20 basis points. This time around, at its meeting on Friday, April 28, the regulator left it unchanged at the same -0.1%.

But that's not all. Many market participants were expecting that with the arrival of the new Central bank governor, Kazuo Ueda, the regulator would eventually change course towards tightening. However, contrary to these expectations, during his first press conference following his first meeting on April 28, Ueda stated, "We will continue to ease monetary policy without hesitation if necessary." One might wonder how much softer it could get, but it turns out that the current -0.1% is not the limit.

The result of the BoJ governor's words can be seen on the chart: in just a few hours, USD/JPY soared from 133.30 to 136.55, weakening the yen by 325 points. Of course, it's still far from the October 2022 peak, but a rise to the 137.50 level no longer seems entirely unrealistic.

The pair ended the past week at the level of 136.30. Regarding its near-term prospects, analysts' opinions are distributed as follows: currently, only 25% of experts vote for the pair's further growth, 65% point in the opposite direction, expecting the yen to strengthen, and 10% simply shrug. Among the oscillators on D1, 85% point upward (a third of them are in the overbought zone), while the remaining 15% remain neutral. Trend indicators show 90% looking north, and 10% pointing south. The nearest support level is in the 136.00 area. Next are the levels and zones at 135.60, 134.75-135.15, 132.80-133.00, 132.00-132.40, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15, and 127.20. Resistance levels and zones are at 137.50 and 137.90-138.00, 139.05, and 140.60.
 Regarding events characterizing the state of the Japanese economy, none are expected in the coming week. Moreover, the country is looking forward to a series of holidays: May 3 is Constitution Day, May 4 - Greenery Day, and May 5 is Children's Day. As a result, the dynamics of USD/JPY will depend entirely on what is happening on the other side of the Pacific Ocean, in the United States.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Awaiting the 2024 Halving

BTC/USD continued to decline on Monday, April 24 and, after breaking the support at $27,000, fell to $26,933. Market participants were already prepared to see bitcoin go even lower at the strong support level of $26,500. However, it unexpectedly soared to $30,020 on April 26. The main cryptocurrency was saved, as it has been many times before and will be many times again, by a weakened dollar. The cause of the shock was the problems of First Republic Bank, which followed a series of bankruptcies of crypto-friendly banks, as discussed above.

The correlation between the crypto and banking industries arises thanks to the following chain of events: 1) Tightening of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy hits banks, lowering their asset prices, reducing demand for their services, and causing customers to flee. 2) This situation creates serious difficulties for some banks and leads to the bankruptcy of others. 3) This can force the Fed to pause its cycle of raising interest rates or even lower them. Additionally, the regulator may restart the printing press to support bank liquidity. 4) Low rates and a flow of new cheap money lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar and allow investors to direct these funds into risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies, which leads to an increase in their quotes. We have already seen this during the COVID-19 pandemic and may see it again in the near future.

According to former Goldman Sachs top manager and macro-investor Raoul Pal, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to have finished its saga of raising interest rates. He has also predicted an upcoming recession that will force the regulator to "change course" and support the markets by printing money. In that case, he believes that risky assets are in for an "inevitable liquidity wave." This capital influx will "enlighten" the crypto industry with new innovations, and the number of people using digital assets will increase from the current 300 million to over 1 billion.

According to experts from the British bank Standard Chartered, bitcoin has benefited from its status as a "brand refuge" for savings at the beginning of 2023, and the current situation indicates the end of the "crypto winter". Standard Chartered believes that recent turmoil in the banking sector, stabilization of risky assets due to the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, and increased profitability in the crypto mining industry will contribute to BTC's further growth. In addition, the adoption of the first EU framework for regulating crypto markets by the European Parliament could also support the leading cryptocurrency. The upcoming halving event will also impact BTC's growth, with bitcoin potentially reaching $100,000 by the end of 2024.

It should be noted that the topic of halving is becoming more and more prevalent. The Bitcoin ArcRisk aversione press service reminds us that it is less than a year away, with the procedure scheduled for April 6, 2024, as of April 24, 2023. However, this date is not final and may change, as it has in the past.

Some market participants believe that this event will be crucial for the future price of the flagship cryptocurrency. They believe that cycles for cryptocurrencies are consistent, and BTC quotes will reach new record highs a year or a year and a half after halving, as happened in previous cycles. Others argue that the market situation has changed. Bitcoin has become a mass phenomenon, and now "other laws and rules apply to the cryptocurrency", so other factors will become decisive, not just the halving of mining rewards.

It is worth noting that the second group of specialists includes Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts, who predicts that the price of bitcoin will rise to $50,000 before April 2024. "The price of bitcoin bottoms out when there are 12-18 months left until the halving. The structure of the current cycle is similar to previous ones. However, many factors have changed: the network has become significantly more resilient, and bitcoin has never experienced a prolonged economic downturn," Coutts said. If his forecast is correct, the asset will appreciate by about 220% from the low reached last November before the halving.

The expert and trader known as Doctor Profit reminded of his previous statement that the bottom for bitcoin was reached at the level of $15,400, and it is unlikely that we will see another drop to this level. The dump in November 2022 was a complete capitulation, including for bitcoin miners, some of whom were forced to sell their coins and equipment at a loss. According to Doctor Profit, BTC is currently in an accumulation phase, neither in a bull nor in a bear market. At the same time, the specialist has advised traders to closely monitor the correlation between the Chinese stock market and bitcoin, believing that China will lift the ban on cryptocurrencies and legalize them, which will have a very positive long-term effect on their price.

Another analyst under the nickname DonAlt also excludes a drop in BTC/USD to the lows of November 2022. At the same time, he allows for a correction down to $20,000, which, in his opinion, will be a good level to replenish the reserves of the main cryptocurrency.

It's been a while since we quoted the popular analyst under the nickname PlanB, known for his Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model. He continues to assert that the predictions he makes based on this model continue to come true. "Before the halving, we can expect $32,000 for bitcoin, then $60,000. Then [after the halving] $100,000 will become the minimum, and the maximum rate could reach $1 million. But on average, after the next halving, the BTC rate should reach $542,000," wrote PlanB. At the same time, the analyst emphasized that the behaviour of the crypto market fully corresponds to S2F, so its critics are simply unfounded.

It is worth noting that PlanB is not alone in his super-optimistic predictions for the price of bitcoin, which legendary Warren Buffett called "rat poison squared." Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the popular book Rich Dad Poor Dad, believes that the value of the flagship cryptocurrency will rise to $500,000 by 2025. And at Ark Invest, looking a decade ahead, they named a figure of $1 million per coin.

As of the evening of Friday, April 28, BTC/USD is trading at $29,345. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.205 trillion ($1.153 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased from 50 to 64 points over the past seven days, moving from Neutral to the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 03, 2023, 03:36:57 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.imgur.com/ILPf5zg.jpg)

- The idea of launching a digital dollar CBDC (Central Bank Digital Currency) in the US has faced active criticism from Republican politicians. In February, Congressman Tom Emmer introduced a bill to protect "financial privacy" when using central bank digital currencies. He also stated that CBDC technology offends American values and may contribute to "financial control" over citizens.
In April, another Republican senator, Ted Cruz, called the launch of the digital dollar "extremely dangerous" for society, as the government would gain access to every transaction. At the same time, he praised Bitcoin and talked about his investments in the asset.
Best-selling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki joined the chorus of Republicans, consistently urging people to buy "more gold, silver, and bitcoins." "In his book '1984,' George Orwell warned, 'Big Brother is watching.' Biden's CBDC is that Big Brother," Kiyosaki wrote.

- Jenny Johnson, CEO of investment firm Franklin Templeton, which manages assets worth $1.5 trillion, criticized bitcoin, stating that it is the biggest distraction from real innovation - blockchain technology. She also warned that the crypto industry should prepare for tighter regulatory rules. The head of Franklin Templeton further cautioned that bitcoin will never be able to become a global currency, as the US government will not allow it to happen. "I can tell you that if bitcoin becomes so important that it threatens the dollar as a reserve currency, the US will restrict its use." In contrast to the US, Johnson listed Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United Arab Emirates as crypto-friendly jurisdictions.

- The White House released a report last September stating that cryptocurrency miners consume more energy than the entire country of Australia and account for between 0.9% and 1.7% of the total electricity consumption in the United States. In response to this, the Council of Economic Advisers under President Joe Biden (CEA) has proposed a 30% tax on miners to discourage their negative impact on the climate. This new measure is expected to generate approximately $3.5 billion in revenue for the government over the next ten years and serve as another method for authorities to exert pressure on an industry they consider a threat.
According to Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis, President Joe Biden will sign a law within the next 12 months that will establish new regulations for the cryptocurrency market.

- Legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, believes that bitcoin will soon outpace other digital assets. "I hold the view that bitcoin will bury all the pretenders. In the end, there will be only one king of the hill," he wrote.
The expert drew attention to the Bitcoin dominance chart, which tracks the share of the first cryptocurrency in the total market capitalization of the crypto market. According to Brandt, the indicator is preparing for a breakthrough after a two-year consolidation in the form of a large rectangle. While the trend is in a "constraining range," the breakout from this range will be crucial for the asset, the analyst explained. Over the past five years, BTC's share has dropped to 32.4% in 2018 and risen to 71.9% in 2021. At the time of writing, it stands at 47.0%. The indicator likely needs to surpass the 50% mark to initiate a bullish movement.

- Investor and billionaire Ray Dalio admitted that although he owns bitcoin, he prefers gold. In his opinion, the first cryptocurrency serves as good inflation insurance, but not a full-fledged alternative to the precious metal. "I don't understand why people lean more towards bitcoin than gold," he wrote. "At the international level, gold is the third-largest reserve asset for central banks, following dollars, euros, gold, and then Japanese yen."
According to Dalio, the precious metal is "timeless and universal." Bitcoin, on the other hand, requires close attention from investors due to its volatility. "You have to be prepared for a significant drop, around 80% or so," the billionaire warned.

- Coinbase Business Director Conor Grogan claims to have found a "jailbreak" (vulnerability) in ChatGPT's software. This "jailbreak" allows for obtaining AI (artificial intelligence) predictions concerning various events. "ChatGPT predicts the future on absolutely any topic (including a person's time of death) and quantifies the probability of the event," Grogan wrote, adding that "ChatGPT clearly sympathizes with BTC while being much more sceptical about altcoins." According to its forecast, there is a 15% chance that BTC will lose 99.9% of its value by 2035 and become irrelevant. In the case of Ethereum, the chances of such a scenario are 20%, with LTC - 35%, and with DOGE - 45%.
ChatGPT stated previously that the price of bitcoin could reach $150,000 by 2024, after which it would increase on average by $25,000 per year and reach $300,000 by 2030. However, the AI honestly warned that it cannot confidently predict cryptocurrency prices. There are many factors that the chatbot cannot account for, such as regulatory changes, government actions, wars, catastrophes, and more. Therefore, while it may be interesting to consider ChatGPT's forecasts, relying on them when developing trading strategies would be unwise, to put it mildly.

- Bitcoin could surge by $20,000 if the US defaults on its debts, according to Geoff Kendrick, Head of Currency Research at British bank Standard Chartered. In an interview with Business Insider, he stated that this could happen in July 2023 if Congress does not approve raising the debt limit to a new level. However, the expert called such a default an "unlikely event" but with "massive consequences."
Kendrick believes that bitcoin will not grow linearly. More likely, after the default, its price will fall by $5,000 in the first days or a week, then sharply increase by $25,000. As for Ethereum, which the analyst considers to be traded like stocks, it is more likely to fall in the case of a default. Kendrick's optimal trading strategy involves opening a long position in bitcoin and a short position in ethereum.
Previously, the Standard Chartered analyst stated that the first cryptocurrency could rise to $100,000 by the end of 2024. Among the main reasons, he cited a banking crisis, halving, and a loosening of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

- Research firm Chainalysis discovered that an anonymous hacker has identified 986 crypto wallets allegedly belonging to Russia's Main Intelligence Directorate, Federal Security Service, and Foreign Intelligence Service, and has begun hunting for their digital assets. Initially, the hacker destroyed over $300,000 worth of bitcoin stored in these wallets. To do this, they used the OP_RETURN script, which marks transactions as invalid and effectively burns the coins. However, after the start of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, the hacker changed their attack strategy. Instead of liquidating digital assets, they began transferring them to wallets owned by organizations providing support to Ukraine.

- Trader under the nickname Bluntz, who predicted the bottom of the BTC bear market in 2018, believes that the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to sustainably consolidate above $30,000 in the foreseeable future. His opinion is based on the fact that BTC has already completed a five-wave bullish trend on the daily chart. Bluntz believes that Bitcoin is currently in the middle of an ABC correction formation, and this could lead to a drop to around $25,000. According to the trader, this drop will be followed by a rise in BTC to $32,000, which will occur in the second half of 2023.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 07, 2023, 09:29:25 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 08 - 12, 2023


EUR/USD: The Market Is at a Crossroads

Everything happened as it was supposed to. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.25% during its meeting on May 2 and 3. Similarly, the European Central Bank did the same on May 4, increasing the euro interest rate by the same 25 bps to 3.75%. This increase had long been factored into market quotations. Of much greater interest were the statements and press conferences of the leaders of both central banks.

Attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech was heightened by the fact that the banking crisis had escalated earlier in the week. Shares of First Republic Bank plummeted following poor financial reports, dragging down the shares of many other banks. The US banking sector had dropped by more than 10% since the beginning of the week. This situation provided grounds for expecting that the Fed would finally shift from a tightening policy (QT) to a more accommodative one (QE), as high interest rates had been the cause of the banking crisis.

The statements made by the Fed Chairman were characteristically vague. While acknowledging some issues, Jerome Powell did not insist on maintaining peak interest rates until the end of 2023. He also indicated that although a decision to pause in the current monetary tightening cycle had not been made, it was not ruled out that the rate was already approaching its peak levels.

As a result, the derivatives market decided that the rate would be 90 basis points lower by the end of the year than it is now. Based on these forecasts, the DXY Dollar Index and Treasury yields went down, while EUR/USD moved upward. However, its growth was relatively moderate, at about 100 points. It failed to surpass the 1.1100 level, and after the ECB meeting on May 5, it even rolled back.

Statistics published on Tuesday, May 2 showed that retail sales in Germany fell from -7.1% to -.6% (forecast -6.1%), and inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone as a whole increased from 6.9% to 7.0%, according to preliminary data. Against this backdrop, the European Central Bank, like the Fed, indicated its concern about the delayed effect of tightening monetary policy, which could cause new problems in the economy. Consequently, the pace of monetary tightening should be reduced.

Although the ECB announced that, starting from July, asset sales from the balance sheet would be increased from €15 billion to €25 billion per month, investors remained unimpressed. The short-term market reacted to the possibility of winding down QT in the Eurozone by lowering the deposit rate forecast from 3.9% to 3.6% by the end of the year. This time, the euro and German bond yields fell together.

As a result, EUR/USD returned to the centre of the sideways channel of 1.0940-1.1090, in which it had been moving for two consecutive weeks. (In fact, if you exclude spikes, the channel appears even narrower: 1.0965-1.1065.)

Data from the US labour market arrived on the first Friday of the month, May 5, and provided the dollar with brief support. The number of new jobs created outside the US agricultural sector (NFP) amounted to 253K, significantly exceeding both the previous value (165K) and the forecast (180K). The unemployment situation also improved, with the rate falling from 3.5% to 3.4%, instead of the expected increase to 3.6%.

As a result, EUR/USD ended the five-day period at the 1.1018 level. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of May 5, analysts' opinions are divided as follows: 60% of them expect the dollar to weaken and the pair to rise, 30% anticipate its strengthening, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral stance. Regarding technical analysis, among oscillators on the D1 chart, 60% are green (with 10% signalling being overbought), while the remaining 40% are neutral grey; among trend indicators, 90% are green, and only 10% are red. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0985-1.1000, followed by 1.0925-1.0955, 1.0865-1.0885, 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620, and 1.0490-1.0530. Bulls would encounter resistance around 1.1050-1.1070, then 1.1109-1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280, and 1.1355-1.1390.

As for the events of the upcoming week, Wednesday, May 10, is likely to be the most important day. Inflation data (CPI) for Germany and the US will be released then. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, to be published on Friday, May 12, will complement the economic picture.

GBP/USD: Pound Forecast Mostly Positive

When forecasting the past five-day period, the majority of experts (75%) had sided with the US currency. Indeed, at the beginning of the week, the dollar recouped 130 points from the pound. However, then the UK's Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply (CIPS) began publishing PMI figures, which indicated an increase in business activity in the country. With a previous value of 52.2 and a forecast of 53.9, the Composite PMI actually grew to 54.9 points. The UK's services sector PMI showed an even more convincing increase: from 52.9 to 55.9 (forecast 54.9).

The pound received additional support from across the Atlantic Ocean. The banking crisis in the US and the vague statements from the Federal Reserve's chair allowed GBP/USD to rise to the 1.2652 mark. It had not soared that high since the beginning of June 2022. As for the final note of the past week, it sounded slightly lower, at the 1.2631 level.

There will be a bank holiday in the United Kingdom on Monday, May 8. However, a whole avalanche of events related to the country's economy awaits us afterwards. Preliminary data on manufacturing output and the UK's overall GDP will be revealed on Thursday. In addition, a meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) will be held on the same day. Most experts believe the pound's interest rate hike cycle has not yet come to an end and will be raised from 4.25% to 4.50%. After the BoE meeting, a press conference will follow, led by its governor, Andrew Bailey. As for the end of the workweek, we will learn the revised data on manufacturing output and the country's GDP on Friday, May 12.

At the moment, many experts anticipate further strengthening of the British currency and growth of GBP/USD. Here are just a few quotes.

"It seems that the belief that European banks, including British ones, are better regulated than banks in the US provides some protection for European currencies," economists from Internationale Nederlanden Groep (ING) write. "This also helps support expectations (with which we disagree) that the Bank of England may raise rates two or three more times this year. According to our latest estimates, the Bank of England may not counteract these expectations next week, leading to sterling retaining its recent achievements." ING economists believe that the GBP/USD pair could rise to 1.2650-1.2750.

Scotiabank specialists believe that upward pressure will continue to develop towards 1.2700-1.2800, although they do not rule out that this growth could be very slow. In their opinion, support is in the 1.2475-1.2525 zone.

Credit Suisse also sees the "potential for a final upward surge towards the main target at 1.2668-1.2758 – the May 2022 high and the 61.8% correction of the 2021/2022 decline." "Here, we will expect an important top to form," the specialists say. Credit Suisse also warns that if the pound weakens, the 1.2344 support should hold. However, if it is broken, a deeper pullback towards the 55-DMA and 1.2190-1.2255 support is threatened.

Strategists at HSBC, one of the largest financial conglomerates in the world, join the positive sentiment of their colleagues. "At present, the pound sterling benefits from both an improvement in investor risk appetite and a cyclical upswing," states HSBC. "We believe that the positive cyclical momentum will continue to support the British pound in the coming months. [...] Nevertheless, amid weakening lending dynamics and the waning positive impact of disinflation, GBP/USD rate may not be able to move far beyond the 1.3000 level."

As for the median forecast, currently 50% of experts are siding with the pound, 10% side with the dollar, and 40% remain neutral. Among trend indicators on D1, 100% are in favour of the green (bullish), and oscillators show a similar picture, although a third of them are in the overbought zone. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2510, 1.2450-1.2480, 1.2390-1.2400, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, and 1.1800-1.1840. If the pair moves north, it will face resistance at levels 1.2650, 1.2695-1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

USD/JPY: Yen Finds Support from the US

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its negative interest rate at -0.1% (The last time it changed was on January 29, 2016, when it was lowered by 20 basis points). Recall that during the press conference following this meeting on April 28, the new head of the Central Bank, Kazuo Ueda, stated that "we will continue to ease monetary policy without hesitation if necessary." It seems like there's not much room left for easing, but perhaps the current -0.1% is not the limit.

The result of BoJ's head's words can be seen on the chart: within just a few hours, USD/JPY soared from 133.30 to 136.55, weakening the yen by 325 points. The growth continued during the past week: the pair recorded a local high at 137.77 on Tuesday, May 2. After that, the yen, acting as a safe haven, was supported by the banking crisis in the US. Jerome Powell's statements finished the "job" of strengthening the yen, ultimately causing the pair to drop by 428 points to 133.49.

On Friday, May 5, strong US labour market data allowed the US currency to recover some of its losses, and USD/JPY ended the workweek at 134.83.

The next BoJ meeting will take place only on June 16. Until then, the USD/JPY rate will most likely depend mainly on the dollar. Regarding the short-term prospects of the pair, analysts' opinions are distributed as follows. At the moment, only 25% of experts vote for its further growth, the same number point in the opposite direction. The majority (50%) simply shrugg, confirming that investors are currently at a crossroads and are waiting for signals that could move the market in one direction or another.

Indicators on D1 are also in doubt. Among oscillators, 50% point north, 25% have taken a neutral position, and the remaining 25% indicate south (with a third of them in the oversold zone). The ratio of forces for trend indicators is 60% to 40% in favour of the greens. The nearest support level is located in the 134.35 area, followed by levels and zones at 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15, and 127.20. Resistance levels and zones are at 135.15, 135.95-136.25, 137.50-137.75, and 139.05, 140.60.

The report of the April meeting of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Committee will be published on Monday, May 8. No other important economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected during the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: When Will Bitcoin Wake Up?

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Of course, the price of bitcoin is influenced by many specific factors. These include industry-related regulatory actions, bankruptcy of crypto exchanges and banks, and statements made by influencers shaping the crypto community's opinion. All of these factors play a role. However, one of the most important factors affecting BTC/USD is the latter half: the US dollar. The better the world's main currency performs, the worse it is for the leading cryptocurrency, and vice versa. This inverse correlation is clearly visible when comparing bitcoin charts and the US Dollar Index (DXY).

In March, anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision locked DXY and BTC/USD in a sideways channel. The 25 basis point increase fully coincided with the forecast and was already factored into the market quotes, so the DXY's calm reaction to this move was quite logical. Bitcoin also reacted calmly to this step, remaining in the $26,500-30,000 range.

The current background remains neutral. The "bulls" are conserving their energy. In addition to the predictable Fed decision on the key interest rate, their reluctance to buy is influenced by investors' general lack of appetite for risky assets. Weak macroeconomic data from China plays a significant role here.

Another factor putting pressure on bitcoin is the profit-taking by some holders, which followed the impressive growth of the coin in Q1 of this year. Most of these were short-term speculators, who accounted for over 60% of the total realized profit.

As for the "whales," having liquidated part of their holdings, they have either gone into hibernation or returned to insignificant accumulation, prompted by the banking crisis. Recall that BTC/USD dropped to $26,933 on April 24. Market participants were already prepared to see bitcoin even lower, at the $26,500 support level, breaking which would open the way to $25,000. However, the coin unexpectedly soared to $30,020 on April 26. The reason for the surge was the fourth bankruptcy of an American bank, this time being the First Republic Bank.

According to experts at the British bank Standard Chartered, bitcoin took advantage of its status as a "brand-safe haven" for savings at the beginning of 2023, and the current situation indicates the end of the "crypto-winter." Geoff Kendrick, the head of currency research at the bank, believes that bitcoin could grow by $20,000 if the US defaults on its debts. In an interview with Business Insider, he stated that this could happen in July 2023 if Congress does not agree to raise the debt limit to a new level. However, the specialist called such a default an "unlikely" event, albeit with "massive consequences."

Kendrick believes that bitcoin will not grow linearly. Most likely, after the default, its price will fall by $5,000 in the first days or week, and then sharply increase by $25,000. As for ethereum, which, according to the analyst, trades like stocks, it is more likely to fall in the event of a default. Kendrick considers the optimal trading strategy to be opening a long position in bitcoin and a short position in ethereum. Recall that earlier, Standard Chartered stated that the first cryptocurrency could grow to $100,000 by the end of 2024. The main reasons cited were the banking crisis, halving, and the easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy.

Investor Ray Dalio agrees that the first cryptocurrency is a good hedge against inflation. He admitted that he owns bitcoins, but still prefers gold. According to the billionaire, bitcoin cannot be a full-fledged alternative to the precious metal. "I don't understand why people are more inclined towards bitcoin than gold," he wrote. "Gold is the third-largest reserve asset for central banks internationally. First dollars, then euros, gold, and Japanese yen." In Dalio's opinion, the precious metal is "timeless and universal." Bitcoin, on the other hand, requires close attention from investors due to its volatility. "You have to be prepared for its significant drop, about 80% or so," warned the billionaire.

Jenny Johnson, the CEO of investment company Franklin Templeton, criticized bitcoin as the biggest distraction from real innovation, blockchain technology. She believes that bitcoin will never become a global currency because the US government will not allow it. Johnson warned that the crypto industry should prepare for tougher regulatory rules.

Senator Cynthia Lummis suggests that President Joe Biden will sign a law establishing basic guidelines for the crypto industry within the next 12 months. Meanwhile, the White House Council of Economic Advisers has proposed a 30% tax on miners to prevent them from damaging the environment, which is expected to be another way for authorities to pressure the industry seen as a threat by many officials.

Upcoming regulatory changes, along with wars and catastrophes, are just some of the many factors that Artificial Intelligence is currently unable to take into account. Therefore, relying on ChatGPT's predictions when developing trading strategies would be, to put it mildly, reckless. However, they are still of interest. According to the statement of Coinbase's Business Director, Conor Grogan, "ChatGPT clearly sympathizes with BTC, while being much more skeptical towards altcoins." Thus, according to the AI's forecast, there is a 15% chance that BTC will lose 99.9% of its value by 2035 and become obsolete. In the case of ethereum, the chances of such a scenario are 20%, with LTC - 35%, and with DOGE - 45%.

Earlier, ChatGPT stated that the price of Bitcoin could reach the mark of $150,000 already in 2024, after which it will grow on average by $25,000 per year and reach the mark of $300,000 by 2030.

Unlike ChatGPT, the trader known as Bluntz possesses human, not artificial intelligence. It was this intelligence that allowed him to correctly predict the bottom of the bearish BTC market in 2018. Now, however, he believes that the leading cryptocurrency is unlikely to sustainably establish itself above $30,000 in the foreseeable future. This opinion is based on the fact that BTC has already passed a five-wave bullish trend on the daily chart. According to Bluntz's calculations, bitcoin is currently in the middle of a corrective ABC formation, which could lead to a drop to around $25,000. After that, the trader believes the coin will rise to $32,000, and this will happen in the second half of 2023.

As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, May 5, BTC/USD is trading at $29,450. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.219 trillion ($1.204 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index decreased from 64 to 61 points over the past seven days, and it remains in the Greed zone.

The Bitcoin Dominance Index (the share of the first cryptocurrency in the total market capitalization of the crypto market) is currently at 46.9%. According to the legendary trader, analyst, and CEO of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, this indicator is preparing for a breakthrough after a two-year consolidation in the form of a large rectangle. While the trend is within a "limiting range," the exit from it will be crucial for the asset, explained the expert. Over the past five years, the BTC share has fallen to 32.4% in 2018 and risen to 71.9% in 2021. The indicator is likely to surpass the 50% mark to begin a bullish movement. "I believe that bitcoin will bury all the imposters. In the end, there will be only one king of the hill," Peter Brandt wrote.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 10, 2023, 02:55:34 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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- The flagship cryptocurrency market has been under significant selling pressure in recent days. Experts from the WhaleWire publication note that transaction fees in the bitcoin ecosystem have reached global extremes for the third time in history (similar occurrences were observed in 2017 and 2021). Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, has twice suspended bitcoin withdrawals due to network congestion. To expedite the processing of the accumulated transactions, Binance raised its withdrawal fees. The situation is exacerbated by an investigation that US authorities have launched against the exchange. According to Bloomberg, it is suspected of violating sanctions imposed on Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.
All of this has caused fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) among cryptocurrency market participants, leading to a decrease in the number of active addresses to yearly lows. Against this backdrop, bitcoin has plunged below $28,000. Analysts believe that a "head and shoulders" pattern is forming on bitcoin's daily chart, and the possibility of a deep correction down to the $24,000 mark cannot be ruled out. However, CoinGape experts emphasize that the supply of bitcoin on centralized platforms is at its lowest level since 2017, indicating that the upcoming correction may be of a local nature.

- People may be losing faith in the dollar, but that doesn't mean bitcoin can become the world's reserve currency. Billionaire Warren Buffett made this statement at the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting. He clarified that he does not see any candidates to replace the US dollar as the global reserve currency. At the same time, Buffett called the continued money printing "madness," while simultaneously expressing confidence in the person responsible for it: US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. According to Buffett, nobody understands the situation with government debt better than the head of the regulatory body.
The legendary investor also believes that the top management of First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank should be held accountable for the issues that have arisen in the operations of these banks.

- Representatives of CNBC criticized Warren Buffett for his extremely negative attitude towards bitcoin. In response, Six Sigma Black Belt founder James Ryan stated that it's not right to criticize the wealthiest investor. However, Ryan emphasized that Buffett does not believe in gold either, as he thinks that "the precious metal does not produce anything and does not generate cash flow."
- Best-selling author of Rich Dad, Poor Dad and economist Robert Kiyosaki often reiterates that the American and global economies are heading towards difficult times. This time, he told his 2.4 million Twitter followers that the sharp increase in the yield of one-month US Treasury bills indicates that a recession is likely approaching. "Does this mean the global banking system is collapsing? [...]", wrote the crypto enthusiast. "So, now focus on gold, silver, and bitcoin." It is worth noting that Kiyosaki predicts that the price of bitcoin will soon rise to $100,000.

- Michael Van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, analysed the relationship between the banking sector and the crypto market.
Shares of American banks fell in response to US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's attempt to calm the financial markets. Within a few hours after the official's speech on May 3, shares of the banking holding company PacWest Bancorp fell almost 58%, and Western Alliance dropped more than 28%. Other financial institutions in the market also experienced declines, such as Comerica (-10.06%), Zion Bancorp (-9.71%), and KeyCorp (-6.93%).
Using a 30-minute chart, Van de Poppe showed that while bank stocks were falling in price, bitcoin and gold were growing in value. According to the EightGlobal founder, uncertainty and distrust towards authorities' statements are growing among bankers. Such sentiments may lead to even greater problems in traditional markets and trigger further growth for both digital and physical gold.

- According to Justin Chapman, Senior Vice President at Northern Trust, institutional investors lost interest in cryptocurrencies after March 2022. Their appetite did not return even after the bullish growth this year. Executives of major financial institutions have shifted their focus to blockchain technology, particularly its potential in tokenizing real assets such as gold for clients.
"Since 2022, things have calmed down on the institutional side," Chapman said. "Before that, we saw traditional fund managers eager to launch crypto funds, ETPs in Europe, which are the equivalent of ETFs in the US – all of that has subsided. Even hedge funds, which are quite active in the crypto market, have definitely reduced their presence."

- The government of Liechtenstein will allow citizens to use bitcoin to pay for government services. This was announced by the country's Prime Minister, Daniel Risch, although he did not specify a timeline. According to him, the government will accept cryptocurrency from citizens and exchange it for the national currency. A similar approach is already used by some Swiss municipalities, particularly the canton of Zug.

- More and more Latin American (LATAM) countries are considering the possibility of adopting bitcoin as a legal means of payment for goods and services. Some of them want to follow in the footsteps of El Salvador, which has already done so at the legislative level. Among these countries are Ecuador, Peru, Mexico, and Argentina. However, experts point out a key barrier to this initiative: the rise in transaction fees, which could make the move impractical.

- The Governor of the Central Bank of Ireland (BCUS), Gabriel Makhlouf, has urged citizens to be sceptical about investing in cryptocurrencies, calling such investments high-risk and dangerous. He stated that the value of crypto assets is not backed by anything, which means they have no social or economic value. Moreover, they are not properly regulated, causing numerous disagreements among lawmakers and officials. "Investing in such products is like buying a lottery ticket: you might win, but most likely, you will lose. Therefore, it's hardly appropriate to call them investments. 'Ponzi scheme' provides a more accurate definition of cryptocurrencies," said the head of the Irish Central Bank.
Makhlouf's speech took place just a few weeks after the European Parliament voted for a bill on regulating cryptocurrencies in the EU (MiCA). The Irish official assured that he welcomes the document, but he doubts that MiCA will be fully implemented by 2025.

- Trader and analyst under the pseudonym Altcoin Sherpa suggested that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could soon drop to $25,000. According to his opinion, this price largely coincides with the 200-day EMA, the Fibonacci 0.382 level, and serves as a level that was previously tested twice as support/resistance. If the bearish trend continues in the coming days, he wrote, the BTC price will fall to the $26,800 support level. If this support is breached, the next target will be the $25,200 level.

- Researchers from DocumentingBTC have named bitcoin the best investment of the decade. An investor who bought BTC for $100 exactly 10 years ago would now have $25,600 in their account. In second place are NVIDIA stocks - $8,599. The honourable third place goes to Tesla - $4,475.
Apple investors could have received $1,208, Microsoft - $1,111, Netflix - $1,040, Amazon - $830, Facebook - $818, and by purchasing Google stocks, investors would now have $504 in their account. Finally, investing in physical, not digital, gold would have turned the initial $100 into just $134.

- Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT has joined the quest to unravel one of the biggest mysteries in the crypto universe: it attempted to identify the creator of BTC, Satoshi Nakamoto. According to the chatbot's calculations, there is a 60% probability that Satoshi is indeed an individual, rather than a group of developers, and most likely, it is Nick Szabo, a well-known computer scientist and cryptographer. It was this scientist who once proposed the idea of smart contracts and the BitGold protocol, which many consider a predecessor to bitcoin.
Szabo emerged as the winner on ChatGPT's list of contenders, with 30%. Hal Finney and Craig Wright ranked second and third, respectively, with 20% and 10%. However, the chatbot acknowledged that it cannot provide any direct "evidence". You can read more about each of these individuals on the NordFX website.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 14, 2023, 03:59:26 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 15 - 19, 2023


EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Rose

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We named the previous review "Market at a Crossroads." We can now say that it finally made a decision and chose the dollar last week. Starting from 1.1018 on Monday, May 8, EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0848 on Friday, May 12. Interestingly, this growth occurred despite the cooling of the U.S. economy. Not even the prospects of a U.S. debt default or the possibility of a reduction in federal fund rates could stop the strengthening of the dollar.

The slowdown in the American economy is further evidenced by a decline in producer prices (PPI) to the lowest level since January 2021, at 2.3%, and an increase in the number of unemployment benefit claims to the highest level since October 2021, reaching 264K (compared to a forecast of 245K and a previous value of 242K). Inflation in the United States, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), decreased to 4.9% on an annual basis in April from 5.0% in March (forecasted at 5.0%), while the monthly core inflation remained unchanged at 0.4%.

It may have seemed that this situation would finally prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to start easing its monetary policy. However, based on recent statements by officials, the regulator does not intend to do so. For instance, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, stated that although inflation has softened slightly, it still significantly exceeds the target level of 2.0%. Kashkari agreed that a banking crisis could be a source of economic slowdown. However, he believed that the labour market remains sufficiently strong.

Following the head of the Minneapolis Fed, Federal Reserve representative Michelle Bowman also confirmed the regulator's reluctance to change course towards a more dovish stance. According to Bowman, "inflation is still too high" and "the interest rate will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time." Moreover, Bowman added that there is no certainty that the current policy is "sufficiently restrictive to bring down inflation," and if inflation remains high and the labor market remains tight, additional rate hikes are likely to be appropriate.

Similar conclusions have been reached by many analysts. For example, according to experts from Commerzbank, "given the slow decline in inflation, which remains well above the target level, the Fed is unlikely to consider the possibility of lowering the key rate this autumn.".

The market reacted to the prospects of maintaining (and possibly further increasing) the interest rate with a rise in the dollar. The strengthening of the American currency could have been even more significant if not for the banking crisis and the issue of the US debt ceiling.

A hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) could have aided the euro and reversed EUR/USD to the upside. However, after the May meeting of the European regulator, it appears that the end of monetary restraint is near. It is quite possible that the rate hike in June will be the last. "At this point, the ECB can only surprise with a dovish tone. [...] Euro bulls should be prepared for this," warn economists from Commerzbank.

The final note of the past week for EUR/USD was set at 1.0849. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of May 12, the majority of analysts (65%) believe that the dollar has become too overbought, and it's time for the pair to correct to the upside. Only 15% expect further strengthening of the dollar, while the remaining 20% hold a neutral position. In terms of technical analysis, among the oscillators on the daily chart (D1), 90% are coloured red (although one-third of them are signalling the pair's oversold condition), with only 10% in green. Among the trend indicators, there are more green ones, 35%, while red ones account for 65%. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0800-1.0835, followed by 1.0740-1.0760, 1.0675-1.0710, 1.0620, and 1.0490-1.0530. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0865, followed by 1.0895–1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280, and 1.1355-1.1390.

The upcoming week will be quite eventful with important economic events. On Tuesday, May 16, we will see retail sales data from the United States and the ZEW Economic Sentiment indicator from Germany. Additionally, preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone for Q1 will be published on the same day. On Wednesday, May 17, inflation data (CPI) for the Eurozone will be released. Thursday, May 18th, will bring a series of US statistics, including unemployment data, manufacturing activity, and the US housing market. Furthermore, speeches by ECB President Christine Lagarde are expected on May 16 and May 19. The week will conclude with a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on the last working day.

GBP/USD: BoE and GDP Upset Investors

The bulls managed to push GBP/USD higher until Thursday. Although the forecast suggested that the Bank of England (BoE) would raise the interest rate by 25 basis points at its meeting on May 11, investors were hopeful for a miracle: what if it's not 25, but 50? However, the miracle did not happen, and after reaching a high of 1.2679, the pair reversed and started to decline.

The decline continued the next day. The strengthening dollar played a role, and mixed preliminary GDP data for the UK added to the negative sentiment. The country's economy grew by 0.1% in Q1 2023, which fully matched the forecast and the growth in Q4 2022. On an annual basis, GDP increased by 0.2%, which, although in line with the forecast, was significantly lower than the previous value of 0.6%. However, in monthly terms, the GDP showed an unexpected contraction of -0.3% in March, against expectations of 0.1% growth and a previous value of 0.0%. Despite the optimistic statement by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt that this was "good news" as the economy is growing, it did not help the pound. It was evident that the growth occurred only in January, stalled in February, and began to contract in March.

Economists at Commerzbank note that the indecisiveness of the Bank of England (BoE) in combating inflation is a negative factor for the pound. "Future data will be crucial for the BoE's next rate decision," Commerzbank states. "If a swift decline in inflation becomes evident, as expected by the BoE, they are likely to refrain from further rate hikes, which will put pressure on the sterling."

Strategists at Internationale Nederlanden Groep (ING) also believe that the rate hike on May 11 may be the last. However, they add that "the Bank of England has maintained flexibility and left the door open for further rate hikes if inflation proves to be persistent."

The plunge on May 11 and 12 resulted in GBP/USD failing to hold above the strong support level of 1.2500, and the week ended at 1.2447. However, according to 70% of experts, the bulls will still attempt to reclaim this support level. 15% believe that 1.2500 will now turn into resistance, pushing the pair further downward. The remaining 15% preferred to refrain from making forecasts. Among the oscillators on the daily chart (D1), 60% recommend selling (with 15% indicating oversold conditions), 20% are inclined towards buying, and 20% are neutral. Among the trend indicators, the balance between red and green is evenly split at 50%.

The support levels and zones for the pair are at 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, and 1.1800-1.1840. In the event of an upward movement, the pair will encounter resistance at levels of 1.2500, 1.2540, 1.2570, 1.2610-1.2635, 1.2675-1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

There are several notable events on the calendar in the upcoming week. The Inflation Report hearing will take place on Monday, May 15. Data on the UK labor market will be released on Tuesday, May 16. And the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, is scheduled to speak on Wednesday, May 17.

USD/JPY: Yen as a Shelter from Financial Storms

The yen was the worst-performing currency in the DXY basket in April. USD/JPY soared to a height of 137.77 on the ultra-dovish statements of the new Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kadsuo Ueda. However, after that, the yen, acting as a safe haven, was aided by the banking crisis in the United States, causing the pair to reverse downwards.

As for Japanese banks, Ueda stated on Tuesday, May 9 that "the impact of recent bankruptcies of American and European banks on Japan's financial system is likely to be limited" and that "financial institutions in Japan have sufficient capital reserves." Assurances of the stability of the country's financial system were also expressed by the Minister of Finance, Shunichi Suzuki.

Currency strategists at HSBC, the largest British bank, continue to believe that the Japanese yen will strengthen further, aided by its status as a "safe haven" amidst the banking crisis and US debt issues. According to their analysis, the yen may also strengthen because the current review by the Bank of Japan does not exclude changes in its yield curve control (YCC) policy, even if it happens slightly later than previously expected. The shift in the BoJ's course could be influenced by the fact that core inflation in Japan remained stable in March, and excluding energy prices, it accelerated to a 41-year high of 3.8%. However, when comparing this level with similar indicators in the US, EU, or the UK, it is difficult to consider it a significant problem.

Meanwhile, analysts at Societe Generale, a French bank, believe that considering yield dynamics, geopolitical uncertainty, and economic trends, USD/JPY may "get stuck in narrow ranges for some time." However, they also mention that the sense that the dollar is overvalued, and the anticipation of the Bank of Japan's actions will not be easy to dismiss. The perception that the yen's recovery is only a matter of waiting for actions by the Bank of Japan lingers.

The next meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is scheduled for June 16. Only then will it become clear whether or not there will be any changes in the monetary policy of the Japanese central bank. Until that day, the USD/JPY exchange rate will likely depend largely on events in the United States.

The pair concluded the past week at 130.72. Regarding its immediate prospects, analysts' opinions are divided as follows. At present, 75% of analysts have vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency. 15% of experts expect an upward movement, while the same percentage remains neutral. Among the oscillators on the daily chart (D1), the balance leans toward the dollar, with 65% indicating an upward trend, 20% remaining neutral, and the remaining 15% showing a downward direction. Among the trend indicators, the balance of power is 90% in favour of the green zone. The nearest support level is located in the range of 134.85-135.15, followed by levels and zones at 134.40, 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15, and 127.20. The resistance levels and zones are at 135.95-136.25, 137.50-137.75, 139.05, and 140.60.

As for economic data releases, the preliminary GDP data for Japan's Q1 2023 will be announced on Wednesday, May 17. However, there are no other significant economic information expected to be released concerning the Japanese economy in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Hopes for a Banking Crisis

Bitcoin has been under selling pressure for the eighth consecutive week but continues to attempt to hold within the strong support/resistance zone of $26,500. The past week once again did not bring joy to investors. As noted by WhaleWire, transaction fees within the bitcoin ecosystem reached global highs for the third time in history (similar to what was observed in 2017 and 2021). The average network speed does not exceed 7 transactions per second. As a result, those wishing to make transfers increase the amount of the transaction fee to expedite its execution. This caused the average fee on May 8 to soar to $31 per transaction. This was very frustrating for users but welcomed by miners, as for the first time since 2017, fees surpassed block rewards.

Some operators, including Binance, were unprepared for this and did not adjust the fees in time for users. Hundreds of thousands of transactions got stuck in the mempool. In order to speed up their "clearing," the largest cryptocurrency exchange suspended withdrawals twice and increased the transfer fee. The situation was exacerbated by an investigation launched by US authorities against Binance. According to Bloomberg reports, the exchange is suspected of violating sanctions related to Russia due to its invasion of Ukraine.

Panic sentiment was further heightened by the news that the cryptocurrency exchange Bittrex filed for bankruptcy on the same day, May 8 (although this procedure is expected to only affect its US subsidiary). The problems faced by Binance and Bittrex reminded investors of the FTX crash. All of this has instilled fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) among participants in the crypto market, leading to a decrease in the number of active addresses to yearly lows. Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline against this backdrop.

BTC is forming a "head and shoulders" pattern on the daily chart. A trader and analyst known as Altcoin Sherpa suggested that the price of the leading cryptocurrency may soon drop to $25,000. According to his analysis, this price level coincides with the 200-day EMA, the 0.382 Fibonacci level, and has previously been tested as support/resistance. The possibility of a deeper correction, down to the $24,000 level, cannot be ruled out. However, experts at CoinGape point out that the supply of bitcoins on centralized platforms is at its lowest level since 2017. They believe this indicates that the upcoming correction may have a local character.

The strengthening of the US dollar last week also played against bitcoin. However, hopes that the banking crisis in the US will continue to support the digital market are still in the air. For many cryptocurrency enthusiasts, bitcoin is considered a safe haven and a store of value similar to physical gold, protecting against loss of funds.

The tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve has reduced the value of certain assets on banks' balance sheets and decreased demand for banking services. Therefore, the likelihood of new disruptions in the traditional financial sector remains quite high. Four US banks (First Republic Bank, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank) have filed for bankruptcy, and a dozen more are facing difficulties. According to surveys by the Gallup polling agency, half of US citizens are concerned about the safety of their funds in bank accounts.

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the bestseller Rich Dad Poor Dad, often emphasizes that challenging times lie ahead for the US and global economy. This time, he addressed his 2.4 million Twitter followers, stating that the sharp increase in the yield of one-month US Treasury bills indicates that a recession may be approaching. He questioned whether this implies that the global banking system is collapsing and advised people to focus on gold, silver, and bitcoins. It is worth noting that Kiyosaki has previously predicted that the price of bitcoin will soon rise to $100,000.

Michael Van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, conducted a detailed analysis of the relationship between the banking sector and the crypto market. The stocks of American banks reacted with a decline to an attempt by Jerome Powell, the head of the US Federal Reserve, to calm the financial markets. Within a few hours after the official's speech on May 3, shares of PacWest Bancorp fell by almost 58%, and Western Alliance by more than 28%. Other credit institutions such as Comerica (-10.06%), Zion Bancorp (-9.71%), and KeyCorp (-6.93%) experienced a decline as well.

Using a 30-minute chart, Van de Poppe demonstrated that while banks were falling in price, bitcoin and gold were rising. According to the founder of EightGlobal, there is growing uncertainty and distrust among bankers towards the statements made by government officials. Such sentiments may lead to further problems in traditional markets and contribute to the continued growth of digital and physical gold.

Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor, remains steadfastly sceptical of the flagship cryptocurrency, bitcoin. At the annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholders' meeting, Buffett stated that while people may lose faith in the dollar, it does not mean that bitcoin can become the world's reserve currency. In response to this, James Ryan, the founder of Six Sigma Black Belt, pointed out that Buffett does not believe in gold either, as he believes the precious metal does not produce anything and does not generate cash flow.

By the way, Warren Buffett may be right about gold. According to research by DocumentingBTC, an investor who invested exactly $100 in physical gold ten years ago would now have only $134 in their account. But if they had invested in digital gold, they would have $25,600! That's why bitcoin is considered the best investment of the decade.

Second are NVIDIA stocks, which would have grown to $8,599. The honourable third spot goes to Tesla with an investment growth from $100 to $4,475. Apple investors could have gained $1,208, Microsoft - $1,111, Netflix - $1,040, Amazon - $830, Facebook - $818, and investing in Google stocks would have yielded $504 in the present.

To further justify the hopes of bitcoin enthusiasts, technically bitcoin needs to rise above $28,900, test $30,400, and firmly fix above the $31,000 level. However, at the time of writing this review on Friday evening, May 12, BTC/USD is trading at $26,415. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.108 trillion ($1.219 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has decreased from 61 to 49 points over the past seven days, moving from the Greed zone to the Neutral zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 17, 2023, 02:44:23 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/8X6mytB/Crypto-News-17-05-2023.jpg)

– According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, in the event of a US default on its national debt, 7.8% of professional and 11.3% of retail investors would opt for the primary cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, 7.8% and 10.2% would rely on the US dollar, respectively.
Gold tops the list of safe-haven assets. Despite the current price of the precious metal being close to its historical high ($2,000 per ounce), about half of the surveyed investors from both categories have chosen it. The report highlights the current shortage of alternatives to gold for hedging purposes.
US Treasury bills ranks as the second most popular asset, with 14-15% of respondents opting to purchase them. Journalists see a certain irony in this, as it is precisely these debt securities that might be subject to default. Bitcoin comes in third, closely followed by the US dollar, with the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc trailing behind.

– Debates have erupted online over the first purchase made with BTC. A version has emerged claiming that the first purchase was not, in fact, the legendary pizza. A story is being discussed on Twitter about a user by the name of Sabunir who tried to sell a JPEG picture for 500 bitcoins in 2010, which was about $1 at the time. Evidence provided includes a screenshot with the date of January 24, 2010: four months before Laszlo Hanyecz bought two pizzas for 10,000 BTC. It is also claimed that a certain user named Satoshi Nakamoto even tried to participate in the transaction.
However, it was unclear whether the transaction had actually taken place. Therefore, Gige Energy co-founder Matt Lohstroh decided to conduct his own investigation. It turned out that the transaction did indeed occur. According to on-chain data, 500 BTC (about $13.3 million at the current exchange rate) were indeed transferred to Sabunir's wallet on January 24, 2010. This means that this image is actually the first item purchased with BTC.
Does this mean that instead of celebrating the annual Pizza Day on May 22nd, crypto enthusiasts will have to mark January 24 as JPEG Image Day? But what about the "Bitcoin Pizza" pizzeria owned by Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano? You have to agree, "JPEG Pizza" doesn't sound quite as appetizing.

– About half of North Korea's missile program is funded through cyberattacks and cryptocurrency thefts, according to CNN, citing White House officials. They say that US intelligence services are working to identify the companies and individuals associated with this, while the Treasury Department is tracking the stolen cryptocurrency.
At the same time, Nikkei newspaper reported that since 2017, hackers from North Korea have stolen cryptocurrencies from accounts opened in Japan amounting to approximately $720 million. About $540 million was stolen from Vietnamese citizens, and another $497 million from US citizens.

– According to data from analytics firm Glassnode, the number of bitcoin addresses holding at least 1 BTC has increased by ~190,000 since February 2022 and surpassed the 1 million mark. The most notable increases occurred during the sharp decline of bitcoin in June 2022 (the bankruptcy of crypto fund 3AC, preceded by the collapse of the Terra ecosystem) and after November 11 (the FTX crash).
As for forecasts, Glassnode is "confident in a medium-term target of $35,000 as external pressures ease." "The Fed will pause rate hikes in June [...] - optimal for an upward movement [of bitcoin] during the summer. The dollar index has crossed below a significant moving average - explosive movements ahead," the agency's analysts explain.

– Mark Yusko, founder and CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund Morgan Creek Digital has reaffirmed his forecast of an inevitable bull rally in the digital asset market. He believes that the "crypto-summer" will likely begin in mid-June. According to him, bitcoin could make a significant breakthrough right now, as a technical reversal pattern is forming on the chart. "If you look at the chart [starting from May 2022], you'll see a beautiful inverted head and shoulders at the $27,000 level," Yusko writes. "It's a really interesting technical pattern. And you know, I think we need some good news to give it a boost."
As for the collapse of several US banks this year, the CEO of Morgan Creek believes that the destabilization of the sector was provoked to facilitate the smooth implementation of a central bank digital currency (CBDC).

– Paul Tudor Jones, head of hedge fund Tudor Investment Corporation and a consistent advocate for investing in bitcoin, has stated that the premier cryptocurrency has become less attractive in the current regulatory and economic climate. He noted that bitcoin now has "real problems, because in the US, the entire regulatory apparatus is against cryptocurrencies." In addition, the billionaire anticipates a decrease in inflation in the US, which makes hedging assets less attractive. Bitcoin is often perceived precisely as an asset for protection against inflation.
Paul Tudor Jones himself continues to hold a small amount of bitcoin and has no plans to sell the cryptocurrency even in the distant future. However, he had previously planned to invest up to 5% of his fortune in bitcoin, but it seems that he has now abandoned such plans.

– Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya believes that the devaluation of the dollar actually stimulates the US economy. According to this venture capitalist, the dollar's dominant position in the global economy remains indisputable, despite trends to move away from this currency. It's important to remember that approximately 187 countries rely on the dollar. A weaker dollar allows these nations to purchase American goods at a more favourable price. They all see that importing goods becomes cheaper, their economies improve, and as a result, the dollar still feels strong.
Palihapitiya also believes that in the long run, the US government will likely not be able to avoid devaluing its currency. According to the billionaire, the best way to deal with this trend is to invest in risky assets, such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

– An Indian YouTuber decided to visit 40 countries in 400 days, using only bitcoin. Paco De La India, as he calls himself, has already visited 7 countries from different regions of the planet. He managed to raise the necessary amount for his travels by selling all his furniture and also through crowdfunding. As a result of his voyage, he was able to draw a few conclusions:
1. Paco believes that the volatility inherent in the market deters people from bitcoin. People are much more willing to use stablecoins, such as USDT, for transactions, while bitcoin is kept in HODL mode. In general, acceptance is happening, but this process needs to be accelerated.
2. The traveller noted that people are usually more generous during a bull market, which makes it easier to receive donations. Paco started his journey when bitcoin was trading around $50,000 and was moving towards an all-time high of nearly $69,000. "Donations were coming in, everyone was very happy... but gradually everything started to shrink," Paco says. "I couldn't travel as freely, so I was always looking for those who could take me in their homes. And this also gave me an idea of the local people."
Unfortunately, Paco's exciting journey had to be interrupted due to the fall in the BTC price and regulatory uncertainty, which affected some of his sponsors (primarily due to the closure of the Paxful trading platform). However, Paco is hopeful and intends to continue exploring where in the world it is most convenient to pay with bitcoin.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 20, 2023, 10:32:33 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 22 - 26, 2023


EUR/USD: Why the Dollar Continues to Rise

We titled our last week’s review "Why the Dollar Rose" and detailed the reasons for the strengthening of the American currency. It's fitting to name today's fresh review "Why the Dollar Continues to Rise," and naturally, we will answer this question.

The DXY dollar index has been on the rise for the past two weeks, reaching a mark of 103.485 on May 18. This is the highest it's been since March 2023. This coincides with increasing chances of a new interest rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve on June 14.

A potential U.S. government debt default could have dampened the hawkish sentiment of the American Central Bank. However, firstly, the Federal Reserve has developed a system of measures since 2011 to mitigate the effects of a U.S. default on its obligations. Secondly, and most importantly, it's unlikely they will have to resort to such quantitative easing (QE). President Joe Biden has expressed confidence in reaching a deal with the Republicans. Additionally, the Republican House Speaker, Kevin McCarthy, has confirmed that a vote on the debt ceiling will take place next week.

Markets have responded to this with optimism and confidence that an economic and financial market crisis can be averted. This has boosted not only the dollar but also the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq stock indices (noting that such a combination is extremely rare). As a result, the likelihood of raising the key interest rate to 5.5% has reached 33% (the chances were close to 0% at the beginning of May).

Lorie Logan, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) of Dallas, and her colleague from St. Louis, James Bullard, are prepared to vote for monetary tightening. Raphael Bostic, the head of the FRB of Atlanta, does not rule out that after a pause in June, the rate could be raised at the July meeting. Neil Kashkari, the president of the FRB of Minneapolis, has also made hawkish statements. He agreed that a banking crisis could be the source of the economic slowdown. However, in his view, the labor market remains quite strong, inflation, although somewhat weakened, still significantly exceeds the target level of 2.0%, so it's too early to talk about easing monetary policy.

EUR/USD fell to a level of 1.0760 on Friday, May 19, after which the decline ceased. This slowdown was aided by a statement from European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, who said that like the Fed, the ECB "will boldly make the necessary decisions to return inflation to 2%". Clearly, this will require further tightening of credit and monetary policy (QT) and a rate hike, as inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone is reluctant to decrease. Statistics published on Wednesday, March 17, showed that in annual terms it had increased over the month from 6.9% to 7.0%.

Economists from the Canadian investment bank TD Securities (TDS) believe that the deposit rate for the euro will rise from the current 3.25% to 4.00% by September and will be maintained at this level until mid-2024. Accordingly, after a rise of 75 basis points (bps), the key interest rate will reach 4.5%.

The picture of the past week would be incomplete without the final part, aptly titled "Why the Dollar Fell." This happened on the evening of Friday, May 19, thanks to the same Fed. More precisely, its chairman Jerome Powell. Earlier in the day, he stated that inflation was much higher than the target, this created significant difficulties, and therefore it needed to be brought back to 2%. This speech had no impact on market participants as it completely aligned with their expectations. However, in his second speech at the end of the trading week, Powell managed to shock the market. According to him, the recent banking crisis, which led to a tightening of credit standards, has reduced the need for interest rate hikes. "Our rate may not need to rise as much as we would like," Powell said, adding that "the markets have priced in a different rate hike scenario than what the Fed is forecasting."

Following these words, EUR/USD rallied north, closing the past week at a level of 1.0805. As for the near future, as of the evening of May 19, when this review was written, most analysts (55%) expect the dollar to continue strengthening. Northward corrections are expected by 30%, and the remaining 15% have taken a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, 100% are coloured red (although a quarter of them are signalling that the pair is oversold). Among the trend indicators, 75% point south, and 25% look north. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0740-1.0760, followed by zones and levels of 1.0680-1.0710, 1.0620, and 1.0490-1.0525. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.0820-1.0835, then 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280, and 1.1355-1.1390.

Noteworthy events for the upcoming week include the publication of Germany's business activity (PMI) and business climate (IFO) indices on May 23 and 24, respectively. Also, the minutes of the last FOMC meeting will be released, on Wednesday, May 24. We will know the GDP values of Germany and the US (preliminary) for Q1 2023, as well as data from the US labour market, on Thursday, May 25. To round off the working week, we are expecting data on US core durable goods orders and personal consumption expenditures on Friday, May 26.

GBP/USD: BoE Hints at a Dovish Turn

The plunge on May 11 and 12 resulted in GBP/USD being unable to maintain its position above the strong 1.2500 support level. On the past week of May 18, the pair reached the next, no less significant, support level, but couldn't break through it. After several attempts to drop below 1.2391, the pair reversed and headed north, ending the week at 1.2445.

The economy of the United Kingdom currently, to put it mildly, doesn't look good. Inflation is still measured in double digits. And while general inflation slowed down a bit over the month, dropping from 10.4% to 10.1%, food inflation, on the other hand, is soaring: it has already reached 19.1% and may soon cross into the third decade.

In terms of bankruptcies, the United Kingdom ranked third in the world in March, after Switzerland and Hong Kong. Moreover, the wave of compulsory liquidations could turn into a full-blown tsunami as the Electricity Bill Assistance Program comes to an end. And if the government doesn't extend it, many more businesses will be buried under new bills. The only slightly reassuring thing is that the industry's share of the country's GDP is less than 20%. The service sector, which consumes significantly less energy, contributes about 75% of GDP.

The pound could have been supported by further tightening of the Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy. However, judging by the recent statements of its leaders, the cycle of rate hikes is coming to an end, with the last increase most likely in June. Deputy Governor of the BoE, Dave Ramsden, speaking before the UK Parliament's Treasury Select Committee, stated that while quantitative tightening (QT) does have some effect on the economy, it is quite insignificant. Another Deputy Governor, Ben Broadbent, announced a reduction in QT volumes to disrupt market liquidity. However, he was only talking about the volumes of bond sales, but overall, the direction of movement is evident.

Commerzbank strategists rightly believe that the BoE's indecision in combating inflation is putting heavy pressure on the pound. Their colleagues from the Internationale Nederlanden Groep (ING) talk about the possibility that if the Bank of England maintained its hawkish stance, GBP/USD could advance to the 1.3300 mark by the end of the year. But will it maintain this stance?

At present, talking about the near-term prospects for the pair, 35% of experts maintain a bullish outlook, 55% prefer bears, and the remaining 10% prefer to abstain from forecasts. Among oscillators on D1, 75% recommend selling (20% are in the oversold zone), 10% are set to buy and 15% are painted in neutral gray. Trend indicators, as a week ago, have a 50% to 50% ratio of forces between red and green. Support levels and zones for the pair are 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1,2025, 1.1960, 1.1900-1.1920, 1.1800-1.1840. When the pair moves north, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2480, 1.2510, 1.2540, 1.2570, 1.2610-1.2635, 1.2675-1.2700, 1.2820 and 1.2940.

Key events for the coming week in the calendar include Tuesday, May 23, when preliminary business activity (PMI) data will arrive from various sectors of the UK economy. The next day will reveal the value of one of the main indicators of inflation levels, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the country, followed by two speeches by the Bank of England's head, Andrew Bailey. Finally, the volume of retail sales in the UK will be disclosed on Friday, May 26.

USD/JPY: The Yen Gets Knocked Down

In April, the yen was the worst currency in the DXY basket. On ultra-dovish statements from the new Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda, USD/JPY soared to a height of 137.77 by May 2. After that, the banking crisis in the United States came to the aid of the yen, playing the role of a safe haven, and the pair turned downwards. But not for long…

Ueda once again struck at the national currency, commenting on Japanese inflation data. He stated that "the current inflation increase is due to external factors and rising costs, not a strengthening of demand", that "inflation in Japan is likely to slow to below 2% in the middle of the current fiscal year" and that "tightening monetary policy would harm the economy". The yen was also undermined by the GDP data for Japan published on May 17. If the country's economy fell in the third and fourth quarters of 2022, then in the first quarter of 2023, it showed an increase of 1.6% YoY.

So, if inflation falls even below 2.0% by the middle of the year, and GDP grows, why should the central bank change anything in its monetary policy and raise the interest rate? Let it stay at the previous negative level of -0.1%. That's exactly what the market participants thought, sending the yen into the abyss, and USD/JPY into flight. As a result, it updated a six-month high, reaching the height of 138.74 on May 18. The speech by the Fed Chair on the evening of Friday, May 19, slightly weakened the dollar, and the end of the week the pair met at the level of 137.93.

Of course, this flight would not have been possible without a strengthening dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. It is known that there is traditionally a direct correlation between ten-year treasuries and USD/JPY. If the yield on securities goes up, so does the pair. And last week, against the backdrop of the hawkish mood of the Fed, the yield rose by 8%. Another piece of not very pleasant news for the Japanese currency is that SWIFT data showed that in April, the use of the dollar in cross-border payments increased from 41.74% to 42.71%, while the share of the yen, on the contrary, fell from 4.78% to 3.51%.

Regarding the near-term prospects for USD/JPY, the votes of analysts are distributed as follows. At the moment, 35% of analysts vote for the strengthening of the Japanese currency. 45% of experts expect a continuation of the flight to the Moon, 20% remain neutral. Among the indicators on D1, the absolute advantage is on the side of the dollar: 100% of trend indicators and oscillators point north (although among the latter 20% signal the pair is overbought). The nearest support level is in the 137.30-137.50 zone, followed by levels and zones at 136.70, 135.95-136.30, 134.85-135.15, 134.40, 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, 129.65, 128.00-128.15 and 127.20. The nearest resistance is 138.30-138.75, then the bulls will need to overcome barriers at levels 139.05, 139.60, 140.60, 142.25, 143.50 and 144.90-145.10.

There is no significant economic information related to the Japanese economy expected to be released in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Has No Intention of Retreating

(https://i.ibb.co/4Txr12X/BTCUSD-22-05.jpg)

Bitcoin has been under pressure from sellers for the ninth consecutive week. However, despite the difficulty, it manages to hold on, relying on strong support in the $26,500 zone, preventing it from falling to $25,000 and lower. The bearish attack attempt on Friday, May 12, was unsuccessful: after dropping to $25,800, BTC/USD reversed course and reached a local high of $27,656 on May 15. According to some experts, investors seem willing to buy. However, there are no triggers for a bullish impulse. Market participants are focused on the prospects of a US debt default on June 1, which is causing them to refrain from any significant activity. At the same time, there is an atypical situation where both the Dollar Index (DXY) and stock indices are rising simultaneously. This preservation of investor risk appetite undoubtedly provided support to the cryptocurrency market.

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, in the event of a default, 7.8% of professional investors and 11.3% of retail investors will choose the first cryptocurrency as a safe haven, while 7.8% and 10.2% will rely on the US dollar, respectively.

Gold remains in the first place on the list of safe-haven assets. Even though the price of the precious metal is currently near its historical high ($2,000 per ounce), it was chosen by about half of the surveyed investors from both categories. The Bloomberg report highlights the existing deficit of alternative assets to hedge against gold.

US Treasury bills became the second most popular asset (purchased by 14-15% of respondents). Bloomberg journalists see some irony in this, as these debt instruments may potentially default. Bitcoin comes in third place, slightly behind the dollar, followed by the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc.

The debates in the US Congress regarding the debt ceiling were relatively lacklustre last week. Influencers' statements on the ceiling (and the "bottom") for bitcoin were equally sluggish and uncertain. For example, venture billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya stated that, on one hand, the devaluation of the dollar certainly stimulates the US economy, and the dominant position of the dollar in the global economy remains undisputed. However, on the other hand, he believes that in the long term, the US government is likely to face currency devaluation, and therefore, it is advisable to invest in risky assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Paul Tudor Jones, the head of hedge fund Tudor Investment Corporation, who has always been a proponent of investing in bitcoin, has now stated that the leading cryptocurrency has become less attractive in the current regulatory and economic situation. He noted that bitcoin is currently facing real problems because the entire regulatory apparatus in the United States is against cryptocurrencies. Furthermore, the billionaire expects a decrease in inflation in the US, which makes hedging assets less appealing. Bitcoin is often perceived as an asset for protection against inflation.

Paul Tudor Jones himself continues to hold a small amount of bitcoin and has no intention of selling the cryptocurrency even in the distant future. However, it appears that he has abandoned his previous plans to invest up to 5% of his wealth in BTC. Perhaps he has decided to wait out these uncertain times.

Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of cryptocurrency hedge fund Morgan Creek Digital, has reiterated his prediction of an inevitable bull rally in the digital asset market. He believes that the "crypto summer" is likely to begin in mid-June. According to him, bitcoin could already make a significant breakthrough as a technical reversal pattern is forming on the chart. "If you look at the chart [starting from May 2022], you'll see that it's a beautiful inverted head and shoulders pattern at the $27,000 level," Yusko writes. "It's a really interesting technical pattern. And you know, I think we need some good news to give it a boost." (Regarding the need for good news, one can only agree with Mark Yusko. However, if you look at the chart starting from March 17-18, 2023, the head and shoulders pattern would point in the opposite direction).

Glassnode, too, anticipates the arrival of the first summer month. "We are confident in our medium-term target of $35,000 as external pressures ease. The Federal Reserve will pause its interest rate hike in June [...] - optimal for upward movement [of bitcoin] throughout the summer. The dollar index has crossed below a significant moving average - explosive movements are ahead," analysts from the agency explain.

Even though summer is approaching, it has not yet arrived. As of the evening of Friday, May 19, BTC/USD is currently trading at $26,850. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.126 trillion ($1.108 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained relatively unchanged over the past seven days and is in the Neutral zone at 48 points (49 points a week ago).

And to conclude the review, in order to liven up the tranquil state of the crypto market, let's discuss a sensation. Debates have ignited online regarding the first purchase made with BTC. It turns out that the legendary pizza may not have been the actual first purchase. It has been discovered that in 2010, a user named Sabunir attempted to sell a JPEG image for 500 bitcoins, which was worth about $1 at the time. As evidence, a screenshot indicating the date of January 24, 2010, has been presented, which is four months prior to Laszlo Hanyecz's famous pizza purchase of 10,000 BTC. It is also claimed that a user named Satoshi Nakamoto even attempted to participate in the buying/selling process.

However, doubts remained as to whether it was merely an attempted sale or if the transaction actually took place. To dispel the doubt, Matt Lohstroh, co-founder of Gige Energy, conducted his own investigation. According to the obtained on-chain data, on January 24, 2010, 500 BTC (equivalent to approximately $13.3 million at the current exchange rate) were indeed received in Sabunir's wallet. This means that the transaction did take place, and therefore, this image is indeed the world's first item purchased with BTC.

So now, instead of celebrating the annual Pizza Day on May 22, will crypto enthusiasts have to mark January 24 as the Day of the JPEG Image? But what about the "Bitcoin Pizza" pizzeria owned by Morgan Creek co-founder Anthony Pompliano? It seems that "JPEG Pizza" doesn't sound quite as appetizing.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 24, 2023, 03:27:55 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/fXWmcYt/Crypto-News-24-05.jpg)

– Romanian crypto investor Daniel Nita purchased 10,000 pizzas for 1.01 BTC (~$26,800 at the time of purchase) to celebrate Bitcoin Pizza Day. Nita made the purchase at Vintage Pub in Bucharest, paying through Binance Pay. He then organized a party where he handed out pizzas on the city streets.
It's worth recalling that every year on May 22, the cryptocurrency community celebrates Bitcoin Pizza Day. This holiday was inspired by a landmark event in the industry when, in 2010, programmer Laszlo Hanyecz was the first in the world to buy two Papa John's pizzas, paying for them with 10,000 BTC. However, the primacy of this purchase is now being disputed. In our previous review, we detailed that four months before Hanyecz, someone named Sabunir might have sold a JPEG image for 500 bitcoins, which was about $1 at the time.

– The United States is at risk of losing its leading position in the cryptocurrency industry, potentially giving way to the UAE, South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland, warns ARK Invest analyst Yassine Elmandjra. In his view, the ambiguous regulatory environment negatively impacts existing companies and deters new players. The expert noted that the recent flight of market makers Jane Street and Jump Trading from the United States is a sign of this negative reaction. Citing data from Coin Metrics, he also added that over the past two months, the volume of Bitcoin trading in the country has fallen by 75% - from $20 million per day in March to $4 million in May.
Recall that just in 2023, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has brought claims against crypto exchanges Bittrex, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Genesis. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also filed a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao.

– Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that the upcoming halving and regulatory intervention in the crypto industry will positively impact bitcoin and strengthen its dominance. Saylor pointed to the growing interest of investors shifting towards bitcoin from other tokens. According to him, BTC's competitors naturally fall away after more stringent industry regulation. This became particularly noticeable after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that "everything except bitcoin" falls under the securities laws.
"Crypto tokens and crypto securities will be regulated, and they might even cease to exist. Bitcoin is the only commodity that the SEC does not intend to regulate. Bitcoin is the safest network and the safest asset," stated the MicroStrategy CEO. In his opinion, a steady outflow of capital from the rest of the crypto space into Bitcoin will soon begin, and he already sees the start of a new bull cycle.
For reference: As of April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, along with its subsidiary companies, owned about 140,000 BTC. The company paid a total of $4.17 billion for them. Thus, the average purchase price amounted to $29,803 per bitcoin.

– Obi Nwosu, CEO of the crypto platform Fedi, like Saylor, has stated that bitcoin's superiority over other cryptocurrencies is apparent in all aspects. The specialist expressed confidence that Bitcoin has the fastest, cheapest, simplest, most decentralized, and safest ecosystem. By the end of 2023, this will become even more apparent, as effective solutions for network functionality development are increasingly emerging. However, unlike Michael Saylor, Obi Nwosu believes that there will still be a place for other cryptocurrencies in the crypto space.

– Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone expects a collapse in the bitcoin exchange rate to support at $7,366. This forecast is based on the downward movement of the 52-week moving average (MA) on the BTC chart. McGlone notes that before the massive pump in 2020, this line, on the contrary, was moving upwards.
According to the expert, the negative trend will continue, and the cryptocurrency will face hard times. "The U.S. Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, despite the banking panic. The drop in commodity prices may argue in favor of the potential for deflation of high-risk assets. The simultaneous increase in the cost of bitcoin and a rally in the stock market seems unlikely," McGlone said.
It is worth noting that not so long ago, at the end of last year, he gave a completely opposite forecast. Then, according to him, bitcoin was supposed to appreciate to $100,000.

– A trader known as Dave the Wave, known for several accurate forecasts, believes that bitcoin is currently consolidating in the "buy zone" of the logarithmic growth curve. This curve evaluates the long-term highs and lows of the leading cryptocurrency throughout its entire life cycle, ignoring short-term volatility.
The analyst notes that, based on the current market structure, a rise above $32,000 will signal a breakthrough of the consolidation channel. Therefore, according to Dave the Wave, any purchase below $31,000 remains a great deal. In his conservative estimate, the target price of bitcoin by the end of the year should be around $40,000.

– The online publication BeInCrypto decided to find out whether BTC could continue to rise, or if the prolonged sideways trend would end with another drop. Opinions within the crypto community were divided. For example, a forecast from popular blogger CryptoKaleo does not rule out Bitcoin updating its local maximum. Signals that allow Currency carry trade on the coin's growth were also seen by the trader known as DaanCrypto. He noted BTC's rebound from the weekly moving average (MA200). From a technical analysis perspective, this behavior of the cryptocurrency could indicate buyer strength.
Crypto blogger Nebraskangooner, on the other hand, sees signals for a decline on the chart. His forecast does not rule out the cryptocurrency falling to $25,500. This, the blogger believes, is indicated by the coin's exit from the symmetrical triangle formed on the chart. The negative Bitcoin forecast was supported by typically optimistic analyst Inmortal. He also does not rule out a BTC drop to as low as $22,000. However, Inmortal is confident that the cryptocurrency will be able to quickly recover its positions.
There's a well-known saying that goes, "So many people, so many opinions." In this case, it can be paraphrased as, "As many analysts as there are forecasts."

– Prominent investor and former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, is once again in the news. He previously made headlines with a sensational bet of $1.5 million that bitcoin would reach a value of $1 million within 90 days. This prediction was made in March 2023, but Srinivasan prematurely admitted his loss in early May.
Now, Srinivasan has declared that "if Twitter was the central theme of the presidential election in 2016, in 2024, for the first time, it could be bitcoin." As evidence, the investor cited statements from U.S. President Joe Biden that he does not intend to agree to a deal with the Republican Party aimed at protecting wealthy individuals and cryptocurrency traders who evade taxes. Srinivasan believes another proof of his correctness is the ongoing debates among American legislators over cryptocurrency regulation and the Web 3.0 space.
Interestingly, another Democratic presidential candidate, Robert Kennedy Jr., has challenged Biden by hailing Bitcoin as a tool to support democracy.

– Michael van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, has told his Twitter followers that a successful retest of the $26,280 support level (MA200) could signify the end of bitcoin's correction and consolidation. Therefore, he believes this level is a good one at which to accumulate bitcoin.
"If we look at past periods, a retest of the 200-day moving average has always been a great time to accumulate bitcoin. Over the past six months, bitcoin has spent a lot of time below this indicator, making it [BTC] undervalued. The next week will be key: a quick retest and bounce upward will signify the end of Bitcoin's correction," the crypto analyst reasons. Michael van de Poppe is confident that, for bitcoin's future growth to be confirmed, it needs to secure a level above $27,000: this will demonstrate the bullish sentiment of investors. However, if BTC fails to conquer and hold this level, it is likely to roll back to $26,000.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 28, 2023, 03:43:02 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrency Forecast for May 29 – June 2, 2023


EUR/USD: Dollar Awaits U.S. Bankruptcy

The dollar has been rising since May 4. Last week, on May 26, the DXY Index reached 104.34. It hasn't been this high since mid-March 2023. What is driving the U.S. currency up and, consequently, pushing the EUR/USD pair down? According to analysts at Commerzbank, "the absolute calmness in the options market suggests that the driving force behind the EUR/USD exchange rate is monetary policy considerations rather than ongoing U.S. debt ceiling negotiations." It is worth noting that the probability of a rate hike at the June 14 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting increased throughout May. At the beginning of the month, the likelihood of a rate increase was close to 0%, but by the end of the month, it reached 50%. It turns out that the U.S. economy is holding up very well compared to other economies, and the deterioration in lending has not been as severe or rapid as initially feared.

Of course, 50% is far from 100%. Moreover, the FOMC published the minutes of its latest meeting on Wednesday, May 24, and the key phrase regarding the possibility of additional tightening of monetary policy was absent. The document also revealed divergent opinions among committee members regarding further rate hikes. However, despite this, the flight to safety in anticipation of a potential U.S. default continued to support the dollar.

The United States government has been living with a debt that has already exceeded $31 trillion. If Congress does not raise its permissible limit by June 1, the U.S. will declare default. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has already warned about this multiple times. However, the actual date of bankruptcy may vary slightly from the "X Day" on June 1. For example, Deutsche Bank points to the end of July, while Morgan Stanley mentions either June 7-14 or July 21-28, and Goldman Sachs even suggests the end of September.

The authors of the British publication The Economist are alarming readers, stating that U.S. bankruptcy will cause a collapse in global stock markets and sow panic in the global economy. According to the estimates of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, the securities market will plummet by 45% in the first months of the crisis. Moody's agency predicts a decline of about 20%, but unemployment will increase by 5%.

As for politicians, discussions about extending the debt ceiling continue. On Wednesday, May 24th, Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, noted that there is still work to be done to reach an agreement. However, he added that the country will not declare default. President Joe Biden also expressed confidence in reaching a deal with Republicans. An agreement is in the interests of both parties, as next year is an election year in the United States.

David Malpass, the President of the World Bank, stated in an interview with CNN that he does not expect a default and explained that such situations occur every few years. (For reference, the U.S. debt ceiling has existed since 1917 and has been raised 78 times since 1960).

As mentioned earlier, statistics indicate that the U.S. economy is feeling relatively confident. The GDP estimate for Q1 was revised upward from 1.1% to 1.3%. At the same time, the number of initial unemployment claims, forecasted at 250K, actually decreased to 229K. Durable goods orders increased by 1.1%. This figure followed a growth of 3.3% in March and exceeded market expectations, which anticipated a 1.0% decrease. Finally, the April National Activity Index from the Chicago Fed rose from -0.37 to +0.07.

Investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts further strengthening of the dollar due to the lack of an attractive alternative among other currencies. According to the bank's experts, there is currently no serious contender for the reserve status of the dollar in the world, including the euro. Unlike the American economy, the Eurozone does not please investors. If the preliminary estimate of Germany's GDP for Q1 was -0.1%, the reality showed a decline to -0.3%. Additionally, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany's manufacturing sector declined (42.9 compared to the previous value of 44.5 and a forecast of 45.0), as did the country's business climate index (IFO) (91.7 compared to the previous value of 93.4 and a forecast of 93.0).

Starting the week at 1.0805, on May 25, EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0701, and by the end of the five-day workweek (Friday evening, May 26), it is trading around 1.0725. As for the near-term prospects, at the moment, the majority of analysts (55%) anticipate a correction to the upside. 20% expect further strengthening of the dollar, while the remaining 25% hold a neutral position. Among the indicators on the daily chart (D1), there is a significant advantage for the dollar: 100% of oscillators are coloured in red (although a third of them signal oversold conditions for the pair), and among the trend indicators, 85% favour the red side (15% are on the green side). The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0680-1.0710, followed by zones and levels at 1.0620 and 1.0490-1.0525. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0800-1.0835, followed by 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1230, 1.1280, and 1.1355-1.1390.

The upcoming week features several notable events. The US Consumer Confidence Index will be published on Tuesday, May 30. The following day will bring unemployment and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, while on Thursday, Germany's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for business activity will be released. On June 1st, the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Eurozone and the minutes of the European Central Bank's latest Monetary Policy Committee meeting will be published. Additionally, a significant number of US economic data will be released, including labour market data and the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) PMI for the US manufacturing sector. As is customary, the first Friday of summer will see another round of US labour market statistics, including the unemployment rate and the number of non-farm payroll jobs created in the country. Traders should also note that Monday, May 29, is Memorial Day in the United States, and there will be no trading.

GBP/USD: One Step Forward, One Step Back

Indeed, GBP/USD has been moving with one step forward and one step back recently. Although it appears to be heading downwards, a closer look at the chart reveals that it ended the week on Friday, May 26, at the same level it had reached in April and a week ago. On one hand, the strengthening dollar is pushing the pair down. On the other hand, hopes that inflation will prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to continue raising interest rates prevent it from plummeting into the abyss.

Fresh consumer inflation (CPI) data in the UK turned out to be significantly higher than expected. The April release showed a rise in consumer prices by 1.2% compared to the previous month's 0.8%. The core CPI reached multi-year highs, reaching 6.8% YoY instead of the forecasted 6.2%. Although the annual inflation rate slowed from 10.1% to 8.7%, it still exceeded the projected 8.2%. While it is the lowest level in 13 months, it remains well above the target level.

In response to this data, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Jonathan Haskel stated that he would not comment on market prices but could not rule out further rate hikes. Another important figure, Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt, also expressed support for tightening monetary policy, even if it harms the economy. In an interview with Sky News, he stated that "it's not a trade-off between tackling inflation and recession; ultimately, the only route to sustainable growth is reducing inflation." Many analysts believe that if the Bank of England indeed raises rates by another 1.0%, the UK economy will fall into a recession, putting significant pressure on the pound.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD is trading around 1.2350. The current analyst consensus is nearly neutral, with 40% bullish, 30% bearish, and another 30% refraining from commenting. Among the oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 100% recommend selling (20% indicate oversold conditions). Among the trend indicators, the ratio between red and green stands at 65% to 35%. In the event of a southward movement, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200, 1.2145, 1.2075-1.2085, 1.2000-1.2025, 1.1960, and 1.1900-1.1920. If the pair rises, it will face resistance levels at 1.2390, 1.2480, 1.2510, 1.2540, 1.2570, 1.2610-1.2635, 1.2675-1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

As for the upcoming events in the following week, traders can enjoy a day off on Monday, May 29, in both the UK and the US as it is a public holiday. However, Thursday, June 1, is worth noting as it will reveal the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the country's manufacturing sector.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on May 28, 2023, 03:44:19 PM
USD/JPY: Yen Receives "Ticket to the Moon"

(https://i.ibb.co/L1FT6WD/USDJPY-29-05.jpg)

Вue to the ongoing ultra-accommodative policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and similar statements from its new Governor Kadsuo Ueda, the yen was the weakest currency in the DXY basket in April. With a high probability, it will retain this title in May as well. Last week, USD/JPY continued its journey to the Moon. Starting at 137.93 on Monday, it reached above 140.70 on Friday evening, with a finish slightly lower in the 140.60 zone.

According to many analysts, the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan could continue undermining the Japanese currency and suggests that the path of least resistance for USD/JPY is upwards. This is supported by prospects of further interest rate hikes by the US dollar and new rising Treasury yields, increasing the interest rate differential between the US and Japan and encouraging a flow of funds from JPY to USD.

Regarding the near-term prospects of USD/JPY, analysts' opinions are divided as follows. Currently, 75% of them are hoping for at least a short-term strengthening of the Japanese currency and a correction to the south. Only 25% of experts vote for the continuation of the upward trajectory. Among the indicators on the daily chart, the US dollar has an absolute advantage, with 100% of trend indicators and 100% of oscillators pointing north (though 25% of the oscillators indicate overbought conditions for the pair). The nearest support level is located in the 139.85 zone, followed by levels and zones at 138.75-139.05, 137.50, 135.90-136.10, 134.85-135.15, 134.40, 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60, and 129.65. The closest resistance is at 141.40, and then bulls will need to overcome obstacles at levels 142.20, 143.50, and 144.90-145.10. The October 2022 high of 151.95 is not far from there.

There is no significant economic information related to the Japanese economy expected for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRIENCIES: Bitcoin Needs a Trigger

Bitcoin remains under pressure from sellers for the tenth consecutive week. However, despite the struggle, it manages to hold its ground in the strong support/resistance zone around $26,500. On Thursday, May 25, amid the strengthening of the dollar, bears launched another attack and pushed the BTC/USD pair down to the $25,860 level. A similar attack was observed on May 12 when the pair dropped to $25,799. But both attacks were repelled, and the storm did not occur.

Investors nostalgically recall the impressive start of the leading cryptocurrency in the first quarter of this year. However, since then, a period of calm and declining trading activity to three-year lows has set in. Some analysts believe that the current price fails to generate enthusiasm among both sellers and buyers. In this situation, investors are hesitant to spend money. According to the analytics agency Glassnode, long-term holders (over 155 days) have accumulated 14.5 million BTC coins. If we add the reserves of cryptocurrency exchanges and other aggregators to this figure, it will be even higher. Even short-term speculators have fallen into a state of hibernation. The market needs a trigger, which could be either decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy or an announcement of a US government debt default.

There are two possible scenarios: either a default will be declared (which is unlikely), or it will not. In the first case, if a default occurs, investor confidence in the US dollar as a reserve currency will sharply decline, benefiting bitcoin as a safe haven asset. In the second case, if there is no default, it will become more challenging for cryptocurrencies. To replenish cash reserves, the US Treasury will issue a large number of bonds, causing their yields to rise, and investors will prefer to invest their money in these securities rather than BTC.

However, it is important to note that the announcement of a default could have a significant impact on the stablecoin market. It is worth remembering that Tether, the issuer of USDT, is one of the largest holders of US Treasury bills, surpassing countries like Thailand and Israel. The volume of these debt securities on Tether's balance sheet is $53 billion, or 64% of its own reserves. It is these reserves that support the liquidity of USDT. If a default occurs, then 1 stablecoin will be worth not $1 but only 36 cents. Alternatively, it is possible that it will simply cease to exist along with Tether.

Indeed, the situation is highly ambiguous. Furthermore, industry participants continue to be concerned about increasing regulatory pressure. It is worth noting that in 2023 alone, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has filed complaints against cryptocurrency exchanges Bittrex, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, and Genesis. Additionally, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has filed a lawsuit against Binance and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao. According to Yassine Elmandjra, an analyst at ARK Invest, this situation discourages new players and has a negative impact on existing companies, prompting them to flee from the United States to more crypto-friendly countries such as the UAE, South Korea, Australia, and Switzerland. (According to Coin Metrics, bitcoin trading volume in the US has declined by 75% over the past two months, from $20 million per day in March to $4 million in May).

Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that active regulatory intervention will actually benefit bitcoin because it will create problems for its competitors. Saylor pointed out the increased investor interest shifting towards bitcoin from other tokens. According to him, BTC's competitors naturally fall away after more persistent regulation of the industry. This became particularly noticeable after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that "all but bitcoin" fall under securities laws. Saylor believes that "crypto tokens and crypto securities will be regulated, and perhaps cease to exist. Bitcoin is the only commodity that the SEC is not going to regulate. Bitcoin is the safest network and the safest asset." He expects a continuous capital outflow from the rest of the crypto space into Bitcoin, and he already sees the beginning of a new bullish cycle. (As of April 4, 2023, MicroStrategy, along with its subsidiaries, held approximately 140,000 BTC, making it one of the largest holders of the cryptocurrency. The company paid a total of $4.17 billion for them. Thus, the average purchase price was $29,803 per bitcoin).

The opposite opinion is held by Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, who expects a collapse in the bitcoin price to the support level of $7,366. This forecast is based on the descending movement of the 52-week moving average (MA) on the BTC chart. McGlone notes that before the powerful pump in 2020, this line, on the contrary, was moving upwards. According to the expert, the negative trend will continue, and the cryptocurrency will face challenging times. (It should be noted that not long ago, at the end of last year, McGlone was looking in a completely different direction. At that time, according to his version, bitcoin was supposed to rise to $100,000).

In the absence of fundamental triggers, experts are paying more attention to technical analysis. For example, a trader known as Dave the Wave, who has made several accurate forecasts, believes that currently Bitcoin is consolidating in the "buying zone" of the logarithmic growth curve. This curve evaluates long-term highs and lows of the leading cryptocurrency throughout its lifecycle, ignoring short-term volatility. The analyst notes that based on the current market structure, a breakout signal from the consolidation channel would be a rise above $32,000. Therefore, according to Dave the Wave, any purchase below $31,000 is still considered an excellent deal. Based on his conservative estimate, the target price for bitcoin by the end of the year should be around $40,000.

Michael van de Poppe, an analyst, trader, and founder of the consulting platform EightGlobal, informed his Twitter followers that a successful retest of support at the $26,280 level (MA200) could mark the completion of the correction and consolidation for the leading cryptocurrency. Therefore, it is advisable to buy bitcoins at such a level. "If we look at past periods, the retest of the 200-day moving average has always been an excellent time to accumulate bitcoins. Over the past six months, Bitcoin has spent a long time below this indicator, making it [BTC] undervalued. The next week will be crucial - a quick retest and bounce upward will signify the end of the bitcoin correction," explains the crypto analyst. Michael van de Poppe is confident that for bitcoin to confirm future growth, it needs to firmly establish itself above $27,000.

The well-known saying goes, "Different people, different opinions." In this case, it can be paraphrased as "Different analysts, different forecasts." The opinions of representatives from the crypto community, surveyed by the online publication BeInCrypto, also turned out to be quite contradictory. For example, the forecast of popular blogger CryptoKaleo does not exclude the possibility of bitcoin reaching a new local high. Signals that indicate a bet on the coin's growth were also noticed by a trader known as DaanCrypto. He paid attention to the bounce of BTC from the weekly MA200 moving average. From a technical analysis perspective, such behavior of the cryptocurrency may indicate the strength of buyers.

On the other hand, crypto blogger Nebraskangooner sees signals for a decline on the chart. His forecast does not rule out a drop in the cryptocurrency to $25,500. According to the blogger, this is indicated by the coin's exit from the symmetrical triangle formation on the chart. The negative Bitcoin forecast was supported by the usually optimistic analyst Inmortal, who pointed to a target level of $22,000. However, Inmortal is confident that the cryptocurrency will be able to recover its position promptly.

As of the evening of Friday, May 26, BTC/USD is trading at $26,755. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.123 trillion ($1.126 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained relatively unchanged over the past seven days and is currently in the Neutral zone at a level of 49 (48 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 01, 2023, 09:20:22 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, conducted a Twitter poll on the importance of the U.S. presidential candidates supporting cryptocurrencies for the upcoming 2024 elections. As of May 29, the poll had garnered participation from 31,200 users. Nearly 84% of the respondents answered "yes," while only 16% voted against it.
It is worth noting that in recent times, some American politicians have increasingly expressed their willingness to foster the development of the crypto industry if elected as president. Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida recently stated his opposition to the implementation of a digital dollar and voiced his support for Bitcoin. He criticized the approach of the Joe Biden administration towards crypto assets, believing that overly stringent regulatory measures could stifle the industry's growth in the country.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the Democratic Party candidate, is also convinced that Bitcoin can save people from financial collapse. The politician pledged to protect the rights of Bitcoin owners and miners if he becomes president.

– After significant and tumultuous events in the crypto space in 2022 and early 2023, such as the FTX crash in November and numerous other bankruptcies including Celsius, Voyager Digital, and Three Arrows Capital, bitcoin managed to reduce its losses and grow by over 60% since the beginning of this year. Business Insider gathered expert opinions on what could happen to the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2023.
Charmyn Ho, Head of Analytics at the crypto exchange Bybit, believes that bitcoin won't be able to reach a new all-time high until the macroeconomic environment becomes clearer. This depends on the forecast of a potential recession in the US, Europe, and other major economies due to an inverted yield curve combined with a range of other unfavourable macroeconomic factors such as inflation. Another factor to consider is the halving, although it is expected to occur in April 2024.
According to Jagdeep Sidhu, President of the Syscoin Foundation, despite several crypto storms, the ecosystem's resilience remains evident. The market has recovered from the FTX debacle, showcasing its ability to absorb shocks and evolve. If inflation in the US decreases and there is more regulatory clarity regarding digital assets, bitcoin could reach $38,000 by the end of the year, roughly 40% higher than the current value.
Based on Tim Shan's scenario, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange Dexalot, bitcoin will trade in a range of $25,000 to $32,000 by the end of 2023. However, if inflation remains high, it may return to the lows seen earlier this year.
David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, is confident that bitcoin will finish the year above $35,000. According to him, traders are not rushing to invest significant amounts of money and want to assess the direction of the leading cryptocurrency and the market as a whole. By the fourth quarter of 2023, much of the uncertainty should dissipate.

– According to analysts at JPMorgan, the price of bitcoin is expected to rise to $45,000. This is indicated by the current price of gold, which is nearly $2,000 per ounce. Analysts state that these two assets typically move in tandem. JPMorgan strategists estimate that the value of physical gold held outside central banks is currently valued at approximately $3 trillion. This implies a price of digital gold around $45,000 per coin, assuming that the volume of bitcoin in private investor portfolios aligns with the volume of the precious metal.
However, the $45,000 price is considered by JPMorgan analysts as the upper limit for bitcoin, suggesting limited potential for the asset. Nevertheless, this calculation does not take into account the halving event and the increased costs for miners. The upcoming halving in 2024 will automatically double the cost of bitcoin mining to around $40,000, and historically, this figure has served as the lower bound for the asset's price.
Regarding Ethereum, JPMorgan notes that the altcoin may face some selling pressure and is expected to lag behind bitcoin in terms of growth in the near term.

– Renowned cryptocurrency analyst, Tone Vays, believes that bitcoin is exiting its consolidation phase, with many investors having already "bought the bitcoin dip," indicating that the leading cryptocurrency is gearing up for further growth. However, in order to continue this upward trajectory, bitcoin needs to overcome resistance at the $30,000 level. If the bulls manage to do so, BTC is poised to reach new price highs.
"It is indeed time for bitcoin to rise," says Vays. "Although, when looking at the weekly chart, the bulls lack strength. [...] There is still time to overcome resistance. We need to surpass $30,000, reverse the Lucid SAR indicator, and then we will rise to $34,000, where another resistance level awaits."
For reference, the Lucid SAR indicator is a variation of the Parabolic SAR indicator. It is a trend-following indicator that combines price and time to calculate trends and determine entry and exit points.

– Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, believes that 2023 will be highly volatile for bitcoin due to the actions of the US Federal Reserve, but he does not expect the cryptocurrency to reach new records. "I don't think bitcoin will reach $70,000 this year. It is more likely that we will surpass this level next year, after the halving. Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. And then, I expect an apocalypse. This situation will not occur when everyone expects it... We are currently sitting on a powder keg - the US has printed a huge amount of money, there is no trust in it, and people are trying to earn a living," muses Hayes.
It's worth noting that these are the personal opinions and speculations of Arthur Hayes, and they do not represent a guaranteed forecast for the future performance of bitcoin. Cryptocurrency markets are inherently volatile and subject to various factors, making it challenging to predict their exact trajectory.

– Researchers from VanEck have presented three price scenarios for Ethereum in 2030. In the base case scenario, the coin would be valued at $11,849. In the bullish scenario, the ETH price would reach $51,006, while in the unfavorable bearish scenario, the coin would plummet to $343. "Our estimates are based on the assumption that Ethereum will become the dominant global open-source settlement network. A significant portion of the commercial activity of high-profit potential business sectors will be conducted on the platform. The dominant platform is likely to capture the lion's share of the market," write VanEck analysts.
The report also notes that Ethereum is likely to become a store of wealth similar to bitcoin but with some differences. "We argue that ETH goes beyond being a transactional currency or a commodity similar to oil or gas. We believe that the coin is not a full-fledged store of value like Bitcoin due to the potential for code changes in Ethereum and the overall utility-focused nature of the project. However, this cryptocurrency can become a savings asset for government organizations seeking to maximize human capital.".

– The government of Bali, Indonesia, implemented strict measures at the end of May against cryptocurrency payments for goods and services, reminding tourists that the Indonesian rupiah is the only legal tender. Crypto tourists will face severe consequences, including administrative sanctions, deportation, and even criminal prosecution. As a result, some members of the crypto community have reconsidered their plans to visit Bali.
Tourism plays a crucial role in the island's economy, contributing 28% of its revenue. If a portion of tourists stops visiting the resort, it could lead to various economic problems, including increased unemployment and a decline in people's income.

– Michael Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that the bitcoin network can be an effective tool in combating bots and fake accounts. The businessman cited the use of bots on social media as an example. According to him, the digital "civil war" in modern society is fuelled by billions of fake accounts that sow hatred among real users. With the rapid development of Artificial Intelligence, creating deepfakes has become much easier, while detecting them has become more challenging.

The head of MicroStrategy believes that decentralized identity (DID) solutions can address this issue, increase trust, and ensure secure and independent data exchange. For example, if someone wants to launch billions of bots on Twitter, it would cost them billions of transactions. By integrating cryptocurrencies into social networks and leveraging the capabilities of the decentralized bitcoin network, such actions would become costly and have serious consequences, according to Saylor.

– According to popular analyst Credible Crypto, bitcoin could replicate the impulse waves of growth observed in previous bull cycles and set a new price record as early as 2023. "I keep hearing that it's unrealistic for Bitcoin to set a new price record this year. But I think we need to compare it to the last impulse in 2020. Remember, it took Bitcoin about three months to surpass the $10,000 level. But within the following two months, it grew by an additional 90%. And just four months later, it set a price record, increasing fivefold from $10,000. So don't tell me that anything is impossible for Bitcoin. We'll likely see it at new highs, possibly even this year," wrote Credible Crypto.

– Nova, a specialist in tracking crypto whales' activities, has discovered an average trader who has become a major holder of digital assets in just five months. Trader 0x743 has executed successful trades since January of this year and now boasts a record realized profit of over 10,000%, with their current portfolio valued at approximately $578,345. Nova noted that the crypto whale's success is attributed to a successful trading strategy rather than mere luck. 0x743 did not make reckless purchases and demonstrated "discipline and good trading behaviour."
It's worth noting that the crypto market is highly volatile, and extraordinary profits come with inherent risks. Individual trading outcomes can vary, and it's important for traders to exercise caution, conduct thorough research, and make informed decisions when engaging in cryptocurrency trading.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 01, 2023, 09:34:42 AM
Crypto Traders Vote for NordFX Once Again

(https://i.ibb.co/ZWGW5Qc/FXDaily-Info-Award.jpg)

The broker NordFX has once again affirmed the high quality of services it provides to its clients. Based on the results of the vote on the international Forex portal, FXDailyinfo, the company was awarded the title of "Best Crypto Trading Platform - 2023".

FXDailyInfo is a vital information resource that provides daily news and financial market analytics, including broker reviews, educational materials, bonus and promotion information, and other valuable insights for traders. The FXDailyInfo Awards, on the other hand, are annual accolades given for exceptional achievements and contributions to various segments of the financial market, awarded to companies and individuals based on the open voting of portal visitors.

In 2019, NordFX was named the "Best Cryptocurrency Broker" at the FXDailyInfo Awards. Now, four years later, the title of "Best Crypto Trading Platform" has reaffirmed NordFX's solid reputation in the world of online cryptocurrency trading. During the voting, visitors cited the following reasons for their decision:

- A wide selection of cryptocurrency pairs, allowing traders to find the most profitable trading opportunities at any given moment.
- Advanced analytical features and tools, reviews, and forecasts, which help traders make informed trading decisions.
- Cutting-edge security technologies that NordFX employs to protect its clients' funds. Unlike many cryptocurrency exchanges, NordFX has never been hacked in all its years of operation, and not a single cent of client funds has ever been stolen.
- Ease of use. The MetaTrader-4 platform has an intuitive interface, making cryptocurrency trading accessible to people of various experience levels.
- Extremely fast order execution. The presence of modern technologies allows for order execution in just 0.5 seconds, enabling NordFX traders to take maximum advantage of rapidly changing market conditions.
- The ability to profit both in rising and falling markets, without the need to physically own cryptocurrency.
- Finally, the availability of margin trading is a critical factor. It suffices to say that to open a transaction of 1 Bitcoin, you only need $150, only $15 for a transaction in 1 Ethereum, and $0.02 for a trade of 1 Ripple. This means that traders can trade cryptocurrency volumes tens and hundreds of times exceeding their own funds, which significantly boosts potential profits.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 01, 2023, 12:17:02 PM
NordFX CopyTrading: 5,343% Profit from Gold Trades

(https://i.ibb.co/161RftP/May-2023.jpg)

The brokerage firm NordFX has summed up the results of its clients' trading transactions for May 2023. The social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profit earned by the company's IB partners, were also evaluated.

- The leader for the month was a trader from Western Asia, account number 1692XXX, who made a profit of 130,874 USD. This substantial result was achieved through trades with gold (XAU/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).
- The second step of the podium was taken by a representative from Southern Asia, account number 1679XXX, with a result of 33,895 USD, also made through trades with gold (XAU/USD).
- In third place was another trader from Southern Asia, account number 1549XXX, who earned 24,857 USD in May through trades with the euro (EUR/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).

In NordFX's passive investment services, the situation was as follows:

- In CopyTrading, we continue to track the fate of the "veteran" signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. It continues to recover from the shock of November 14, 2022, when its maximum drawdown exceeded 67%. As of today, it has achieved a profit of 348% over 757 days. Another signal under the same "brand" also draws attention: KennyFXPRO - Variables_RBB 35. In its 175 days of existence, it has shown a relatively modest profit of 40%. However, what makes this signal interesting is that this profit was achieved with a fairly moderate drawdown of 24%.

One notable start-up signal is Future Forex, whose provider managed to achieve a 91% profit from GBP/USD trades over 68 days, with a maximum drawdown of about 30%.

Finally, the super-hit of the last two months: Trade2win. In just 62 days, this signal has achieved a phenomenal profit of 5,343% from gold (XAU/USD) trades, with an equally remarkable drawdown of less than 15%. Trade2win's trading style is not overly aggressive: there are few trades, and the average leverage is far from the maximum possible, ranging between 50 and 150. Despite these impressive achievements, it's important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future success, and that trading in financial markets is risky. Thus, to avoid losing funds, subscribers should exercise maximum caution and always adhere to money management principles.

- The PAMM service showcase still features two accounts we have mentioned several times in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. On November 14, 2022, like their CopyTrading colleagues, they suffered significant losses – drawdown approached 43% at that point. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and as of May 31, 2023, the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 100%, and on the second, 66%. We also continue to monitor the Trade and Earn account. It was opened more than a year ago, but lay dormant, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 7 months, its return has exceeded 100% with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among NordFX's IB partners, the Top 3 looks as follows:
- The largest commission reward of the month, amounting to 10,370 USD, was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account No. 1645XXX.
- In second place is a partner from Southern Asia, account No. 1668XXX, who received 9,093 USD.
- The top three is rounded off by a partner from Eastern Asia, account No. 1218XXX,
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 04, 2023, 08:49:30 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 05 - 09, 2023


EUR/USD: Will the Dollar Return to Steady Growth?

(https://i.ibb.co/YpGckPS/EURUSD-05-06.jpg)

The dollar has been rising since May 4. The DXY Index reached the 104.609 mark on the last day of spring, May 31. It hasn't soared this high since January 2023. As we have previously mentioned, two primary factors were propelling the American currency upwards.

The first one is the investors' appetite for the dollar as a safe-haven asset, triggered by the threat of a U.S. default. However, the Senate voted in favour of passing a bill on the public debt limit last week. Consequently, the default threat has finally passed, which has improved market sentiments and weakened demand for the dollar.

The second factor was the anticipation of a further rise in the key Federal Reserve interest rate. Amid hawkish statements from officials, the probability that the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) would increase the rate to 5.5% at its June 14 meeting rose above 60% by the end of May.

However, as the old song goes, "a beauty's heart is prone to change and fickleness". The first to play the role of such a "beauty" was the new Vice President of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, who subtly hinted at the need for a pause in the monetary tightening process. Furthermore, Patrick Harker, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, outright stated that "we should skip the rate hike at least at the June meeting". Then, Harker went even further and suggested skipping every other FOMC meeting, naturally including the one in June. Market participants immediately recalled Jerome Powell, the head of the Federal Reserve, who had also mentioned a pause.

Strong US macroeconomic data could have aided the dollar. However, the employment report from ADP released on Thursday, June 1, showed that the number of jobs in the private sector decreased from 291K in April to 278K in May. Meanwhile, the number of initial unemployment claims, albeit slightly, increased from 230K to 232K. The cooling of the economy was also indicated by the fall in the ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing sector from 47.1 to 46.9. (As a reminder, if the PMI is below 50, it indicates economic contraction, especially if the trend persists over several months). The substantial revision of data on unit labour costs for Q1 2023, which was downgraded from 6.3% to 4.2%, also fuelled dovish expectations. Such weak statistics added doubts for market participants about another rate hike on June 14th. As a result, according to the FedWatch Tool from CME Group, the chances of this happening have plummeted from 60% to 25%. The DXY Index also took a southern turn.

If the US statistics on June 1 worked against the American currency, the data from Europe the day before, on May 31, conversely, helped EUR/USD reach a 9-week low at 1.0634. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation in the Eurozone is on a downward trend. With a previous value of 7.0% and a forecast of 6.3%, the actual CPI dropped to 6.1%. If we talk about individual countries, the rate of consumer price growth in Italy fell from 8.7% to 8.1%, in France - from 6.9% to 6.0%, and in Germany - from 7.6% to 6.3%. In Spain, the CPI fell to a two-year low.

At the same time, with the decrease in inflation, the chances for further aggressive tightening of its monetary policy by the European Central Bank also went downhill. Although, at its next meeting on June 15, the ECB is still likely to raise the rate by 25 basis points (bp) to 4.0%, even after this, it will still remain below the current Federal Reserve rate of 5.25%. And if the ECB stops there and takes a pause, it will deprive EUR/USD bulls of an important trump card.

Strong labor market statistics, traditionally due on the first Friday of the month, June 2, could have helped the dollar towards the end of the week. The NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) lived up to expectations: the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector, with a previous value of 294K and a forecasted fall to 180K, actually increased to 339K. However, another important indicator, the unemployment rate, disappointed investors: the unemployment rate in the US reached 3.7% in May (3.4% in April, forecast 3.5%).

Following such an ambiguous employment report, the pair ended the five-day period at a level of 1.0707. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing the review, the evening of June 2, the forecast is as neutral as possible: 50% of analysts expect the pair to move north, and just as many expect it to move south. Both among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, a substantial advantage is on the side of the dollar - 85% of each are coloured red, with 15% on the green side. Among trend indicators, 85% side with the reds (15% side with the greens). The pair's nearest support is located around 1.0680, followed by zones and levels at 1.0620-1.0635 and 1.0490-1.0525. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.0745-1.0707, then 1.0800-1.0835, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, and 1.1090-1.1110.

For the upcoming week's calendar, it is worth noting Monday, June 5, when the ISM's Service Sector PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) for the US will be known. The EIA's (Energy Information Administration's) Energy Market Outlook and data on US crude oil reserves may cause some volatility on Tuesday and Wednesday. Additionally, Eurozone retail sales volumes will be announced on Tuesday, June 6. Thursday, June 8 could also be quite volatile, with data coming in on Eurozone GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and the US unemployment rate.

GBP/USD: UK Inflation Propels Pound Upwards

Over the last week, the pound has recovered all of its losses from May 12 to May 25. This occurred after last week's inflation figures in the UK shocked the market with an unexpected increase. The April release reported a rise in consumer prices by 1.2%, compared to the 0.8% increase recorded a month earlier. The core Consumer Price Index reached multi-year highs, hitting 6.8% YoY, exceeding the predicted 6.2%. Although annual inflation has slowed from 10.1% to 8.7%, it still exceeded the 8.2% forecast. This is a 13-month low, but still significantly above the target level. In particular, food inflation reached 19.1%, a level not seen since 1977. This figure greatly impacts low-income households, forcing them to spend more on food and less on other goods and services.

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt has already stated the need to continue a hawkish monetary policy course, despite increasing recession risks. The official noted that economic recovery is only possible if inflation is fully defeated. As a result, investors have become more confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise the rate by 25 basis points at its next meeting, and likely will not stop there.

There's another factor that allowed GBP/USD to reach 1.2544 on June 2. If the dollar was strengthening its position energetically in mid-May, last week the US currency found itself under selling pressure (the reasons were indicated earlier), which facilitated a rally of GBP/USD. After the release of US labour market data, it concluded on the note of 1.2450.

In the current situation, the median forecast of analysts looks as follows: 45% of experts maintain a bullish outlook, 30% prefer the bears, and the same percentage (25%) chose to abstain from comments. Among oscillators on D1, only 15% recommend selling, 50% are set to buy, and 35% are painted in a neutral grey colour. Among trend indicators, the balance of power between green and red is 85% to 15% in favour of the greens.

If the pair moves south, its support levels and zones are 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In the event of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2480, 1.2510, 1.2540, 1.2570, 1.2610-1.2635, 1.2675-1.2700, 1.2820, and 1.2940.

The Composite Business Activity Index (PMI), as well as the PMI in the services sector of the United Kingdom will be published the next week, on Monday, June 5. The picture of business activity will be supplemented by the PMI in the country's construction sector the following day, Tuesday, June 6.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 04, 2023, 08:50:42 AM
USD/JPY: The Pair Seeks a Return to Earth

The previous review was titled "USD/JPY Received a 'Ticket to the Moon'. As for the current one, it could be called "The Pair Seeks a Return to Earth". Or at least, it tries to do so, justifying the forecast given by 75% of analysts a week ago. If the pair reached its maximum for the past five-day period (and the last six months) on May 30 at the height of 140.92, the minimum on June 01 was 250 points lower, at 138.42. However, then the ambition to reach the stars took over again, and the pair finished at the level of 139.95.

It's clear that the yen's strengthening in recent days has been directly tied to the weakening of the dollar. However, when it comes to future prospects, things are very unclear and uncertain. Let's just quote a few statements.

Speaking in Parliament, Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda said that it will take some time to reach the 2.0% price growth target. He also added that he can't specify when this target will be reached. Moreover, the BoJ chief believes that setting strict timelines to achieve this goal could cause unexpected consequences for the market and hence is undesirable.

On Friday, June 2, a statement was also issued by Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki. In his opinion, currency rate movements are determined by the market and various factors. He also mentioned: "A weak yen has various impacts on Japan's economy". However, the Minister did not specify what these "various factors" are and what kind of "various impacts" he was referring to.

In the current situation, economists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that "USD/JPY appears overvalued compared to trading conditions, which are now much more favorable for the yen than a year ago." They also note that "there is still a risk that the Bank of Japan will surprise on June 16, further normalizing its yield curve control policy," which would be a positive factor for the yen.

Strategists from Wells Fargo, one of the "big four" U.S. banks, are also relatively optimistic about the future of the Japanese currency, expecting the yen to be the main beneficiary of a weakening U.S. dollar. They believe that "The Bank of Japan will adjust its policy in Q4 2023 for further normalization of the government bond market," which could provide an opportunity for the yen to strengthen by the end of the year. "The strengthening of the yen should also be supported by the end of the global central bank tightening cycle and a transition to global easing, as well as a recession in the U.S. in the second half of 2023," Wells Fargo strategists said. "We are targeting a USD/JPY rate of 136.00 by the end of 2023 and 129.00 by the end of 2024." (end of quote).

As for the near future of the pair, the voices of analysts are distributed as follows. At this point, 65% of them are hoping for further strengthening of the Japanese currency and movement of the pair to the south. Only 25% of experts vote for a rise in the dollar, and the remaining 10% have taken a neutral position. Among the indicators on D1, the absolute advantage is on the side of the dollar: 100% of trend indicators and 85% of oscillators point north (10% signal overbought conditions). The remaining 15% of oscillators point south. The nearest support level is in the 139.45 area, followed by levels and zones 138.75-139.05, 137.50, 135.90-136.10, 134.85-135.15, 134.40, 133.60, 132.80-133.00, 132.00, 131.25, 130.50-130.60 and 129.65. The nearest resistance is 140.90-141.00, then bulls will need to overcome obstacles at levels 142.20, 143.50 and 144.90-145.10. And from there it's not far to the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information concerning the Japanese economy is anticipated in the coming week. The exception is Thursday, June 8, when the volume of Japan's GDP for Q1 2023 will be announced.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Moderately Positive Forecast for Bitcoin

After bouncing off the $25,850 support on May 25, the bulls launched an attack, instilling hope in the hearts of investors. However, their strength proved insufficient to reach the $29,000 resistance level. A local peak was recorded on May 29 at $28,433, after which BTC/USD retreated to the $26,500 support, leaving investors disappointed.

This dynamic was likely triggered by speculations surrounding the US government debt. Although, upon examining the charts, there was no direct correlation with stock indices (S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq), nor was there an inverse correlation with the Dollar Index (DXY) observed in bitcoin quotes.

After significant and tumultuous events in the crypto space in 2022 and early 2023, such as the FTX crash in November and numerous other bankruptcies, including Celsius, Voyager Digital, and Three Arrows Capital, bitcoin managed to recover its losses and grow by over 60%. However, a period of calm ensued for eleven weeks. Renowned cryptocurrency analyst Ton Vays believes that the leading cryptocurrency is concluding its consolidation phase, with many investors already "buying the bitcoin dip," indicating that BTC is preparing for further growth. To achieve this, though, it must overcome resistance at the $30,000 level. If the "bulls" succeed, BTC will reach new price highs.

"It is indeed time for bitcoin to grow," says Vays. "However, looking at the weekly chart, the bulls lack strength. [...] There is still time to overcome resistance. We need to surpass $30,000, reverse the Lucid SAR indicator, and then we will rise to $34,000, where another resistance awaits." (For reference: The Lucid SAR indicator is a variation of the Parabolic SAR. It is a trend-following indicator that combines price and time to calculate trends and determine entry and exit points.)

According to analysts at JPMorgan, the price of bitcoin is expected to rise to $45,000. This is indicated by the current price of gold, which is close to $2,000 per ounce. Analysts note that these two assets usually move in tandem. Based on JPMorgan strategists' calculations, the value of physical gold held outside central banks is currently estimated at around $3 trillion. This implies a price of digital gold, or bitcoin, at around $45,000 per coin, assuming the volume of bitcoin in private investors' portfolios matches that of the precious metal.

However, analysts at JPMorgan view $45,000 as the upper limit for bitcoin's price, suggesting limited potential for the asset. This calculation does not take into account the halving process and the increasing costs for miners. The upcoming halving in 2024 will automatically double the cost of bitcoin mining to approximately $40,000, and historically, this figure has served as the lower boundary for the asset's price.

When it comes to miners, the situation is twofold. In pursuit of profits, they contribute to the increasing computational difficulty. Over the past five months of 2023, the difficulty has grown by 45%, equal to the growth seen throughout the entire year of 2022. The price increase of bitcoin in Q1 of this year added optimism among miners, leading them to actively expand their computing power. However, this had the opposite effect, as the increased difficulty impacted mining profitability, bringing it down to levels seen on January 13 when BTC was trading at $19,000.

Former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, believes that 2023 will be highly volatile for bitcoin due to the actions of the Federal Reserve System (FRS) in the United States. However, he does not expect the cryptocurrency to reach new all-time highs this year. Hayes states, "I don't think bitcoin will reach $70,000 this year. Most likely, we will surpass that level next year after the halving. Bitcoin will continue to grow in 2025 and 2026. And then, I anticipate an apocalypse. This situation will occur when least expected... We are currently sitting on a powder keg: the US has printed a massive amount of money, there is a lack of trust in them, and people are trying to make a living for themselves," Hayes concludes.

Popular analyst Credible Crypto disagrees with him. According to his opinion, bitcoin may replicate the impulsive waves of growth observed in previous bull cycles and set a new price record as early as 2023. "I keep hearing that it's impossible for bitcoin to reach a new all-time high this year. But I think we need to compare it to the last impulse in 2020. Remember, it took bitcoin about three months to surpass the $10,000 level. But within the next two months, it increased by another 90%. And just four months later, it set a new price record, growing fivefold from $10,000. So don't tell me that anything is impossible for bitcoin. We'll see it at new highs, most likely this year," Credible Crypto burst with optimism.

The publication Business Insider has also taken an interest in expert forecasts regarding what may happen to the leading cryptocurrency by the end of 2023. Charmyn Ho, Head of Analytics at the crypto exchange Bybit, believes that bitcoin will not be able to reach a new high until the macroeconomic environment becomes clearer. It all depends on the potential forecast of a recession in the US, Europe, and other major economies due to an inverted yield curve combined with a range of other unfavorable macroeconomic factors, such as inflation. The halving factor should also be taken into account, although it is expected to occur in April 2024.

According to Jagdeep Sidhu, President of the Syscoin Foundation, despite several crypto storms, the resilience of the ecosystem remains evident. The market has recovered from the ashes of FTX, with its inherent ability to absorb shocks and evolve. If inflation in the US decreases and there is more clarity in terms of regulating digital assets, bitcoin could reach the $38,000 mark by the end of the year, which is approximately 40% higher than the current level.

According to the scenario presented by Tim Shan, Chief Operating Officer of the crypto exchange Dexalot, bitcoin is expected to trade in a range of $25,000 to $32,000 by the end of 2023. However, if inflation remains high, it may return to the lows seen earlier this year.

David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, is confident that bitcoin will finish the year above $35,000. According to him, traders are not rushing to invest significant amounts of money and want to see which direction the leading cryptocurrency and the market as a whole will move. By Q4 2023, most of the uncertainties should disappear.

The cryptocurrency market is not solely reliant on bitcoin. It's been a while since we discussed the second most significant cryptocurrency, ethereum. This altcoin also demonstrates high volatility, and investment returns depend heavily on the entry point. For example, the coin's price increased from $90 to $4,855 from March 2020 to November 2021, a more than 50-fold gain. However, it had dropped to $880 by June 2022, losing 80% of its value. Looking at the returns from the beginning of 2018 to the present, they stand at a modest 30%.

Researchers from VanEck have presented three price scenarios for ethereum over a seven-year horizon. In the base case scenario, the coin will be valued at $11,849 in 2030. In the bullish scenario, ETH could reach $51,006, while in the unfavourable bearish scenario, ethereum would plummet to $343. "Our estimates are based on the assumption that ethereum will become the dominant global network for transactions, hosting a significant portion of the most profitable business sectors. The dominant platform is likely to capture the lion's share of the market," write the VanEck analysts.

The report also notes that ethereum is likely to become a store of wealth, much like bitcoin, but with some differences. "We argue that ETH goes beyond being a transactional currency or a commodity-like oil or gas. We believe the coin is not a full-fledged store of value like bitcoin, due to the potential for code changes in ethereum and the project's utility-focused position. Nevertheless, this cryptocurrency can become a savings asset for government organizations seeking to maximize human capital."

However, according to JPMorgan strategists, the main threat to the number one altcoin comes from government organizations. It is their pressure and selling activity that poses a challenge for ethereum, and in the near future, it may lag behind bitcoin in terms of growth. This became particularly noticeable after SEC Chairman Gary Gensler stated that "everything other than bitcoin" falls under securities laws. "Crypto tokens and crypto securities will be regulated and may even cease to exist. Bitcoin is the only commodity that the SEC does not intend to regulate. Bitcoin is the safest network and the safest asset," commented MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor on Gensler's statement.

At the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, June 2, BTC/USD is trading at $27,155, and ETH/USD is trading at $1,900. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $1.149 trillion ($1.123 trillion a week ago). Bitcoin's dominance in the market is 47.51%, while ethereum accounts for 20.65%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained relatively unchanged over the past seven days and is currently in the Neutral zone at 50 points (compared to 49 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 11, 2023, 09:55:54 AM
XAU/USD: Historical Overview and Forecast Until 2027


(https://i.ibb.co/nQ3Mj0B/XAUUSD-12-06.jpg)

Gold is one of the favourite trading instruments of the most successful traders at NordFX. This can be easily confirmed by looking at the monthly rankings published by this brokerage company. That is why it is appropriate to provide a special review, focusing solely on the XAU/USD pair.

Is Gold Truly a Protective Asset?

In the current economic situation, as leading central banks worldwide attempt to curb inflation, the price of this precious metal has reached a historic high, hitting $2,080 per troy ounce on May 4. Market participants are rushing to buy gold, believing it can safeguard their capital from devaluation.

According to a survey conducted by Bloomberg, approximately 50% of respondents identified gold as their primary safe-haven asset (with US Treasury bonds coming in second place, receiving only 15% of the votes). However, is gold truly an effective tool for hedging price risks, or is this a widespread misconception?

Consider, for instance, the period from March to October 2022 when gold prices fell from $2,070 to $1,616, a decline of almost 22%. This occurred despite the fact that inflation in the United States reached a 40-year peak during that time. So, what kind of protective asset is gold, then?

The Growth of Gold Prices

If we trace the dynamics of gold prices since the beginning of the 20th century, we observe the following pattern. In the year 1900, the price of this precious metal was approximately $20 per troy ounce.

During the period from 1914 to 1918, amidst and immediately after World War I, the price rose to around $35. Then, in the 1930s, during the Great Depression and as a result of currency reforms in the United States, the price was set at $20.67 per troy ounce. Throughout World War II, the value of the asset remained stable and was fixed at $35 under the Bretton Woods system, the same level as during World War I.

 In 1971, the United States abandoned the gold standard, which led to floating exchange rates and an increase in the price of gold. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the price exceeded the $800 mark per troy ounce due to geopolitical tensions, inflation, and a reduction in gold production. From the 1980s to the 2000s, the price of gold declined and fluctuated within a range of approximately $250 to $500.

 Since the early 2000s, there has been a significant increase in the price of gold due to geopolitical events, financial instability, and inflationary pressures. In August 2020, amidst the COVID-19 pandemic and economic uncertainty, the price of gold surpassed the $2,000 mark per troy ounce for the first time. However, following this peak, it experienced a decline due to expectations of economic recovery, tightening monetary policies by central banks, rising interest rates, and various other factors.

A subsequent unsuccessful attempt to break above the $2,000 resistance level occurred in March 2022. Finally, the third surge occurred in May of this year.

Why Gold Prices Are Rising

So, what contributes to the value of gold and why does its price rise?

- Rarity and Limited Supply: Gold is a rare metal, and its extraction is limited and requires significant efforts and resources.
- Durability and Longevity: Gold is highly resistant to wear and corrosion. It retains its physical properties over time, making it suitable for long-term storage and attractive for use in jewellery and various industries.
- Store of Value: Gold has long been considered a store of value. It can preserve its purchasing power over extended periods, serving as a hedge against inflation and the instability of stocks and currencies.
- Liquidity and Recognizability: Gold is universally recognized and accepted as an asset. It can be easily exchanged for cash or used as a medium of payment in different countries and cultures.
- These factors contribute to the desirability and demand for gold, thus driving its price upward.

Factors Influencing Gold Prices

Let's delve into the factors that influence the price of gold. It's important to note that there is no direct correlation between the price of gold and each of these factors individually. Market forecasts and the combination of these factors also play a role in determining gold prices. For example, the recent surge in XAU/USD can be attributed to expectations of a reversal in the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike cycle, potential U.S. debt default, as well as geopolitical and economic instability due to Russia's armed actions in Ukraine. Now, let's explore the key factors:

- Economic Conditions: The global economic situation, including GDP growth or decline, unemployment, and overall financial stability, can impact gold prices. Uncertainty in the markets or a recession, for instance, may increase demand for gold as a risk-free asset.
- Geopolitical Events: Political and geopolitical events such as armed conflicts, wars, terrorist acts, sanctions, elections, etc., can cause market instability and uncertainty, leading to an increased demand for gold as a safe haven.
- Inflation: The level of inflation plays a crucial role in determining the value of gold. When inflation rises, the price of gold typically follows suit as investors seek protection against the devaluation of money.
- Central Banks: Actions taken by central banks, including changes in interest rates, can influence gold prices. For example, a decrease in interest rates may stimulate demand for gold as holding it becomes comparatively more attractive than other assets.
- Currency Movements: Fluctuations in exchange rates between different countries can also impact the price of gold. If the currency of a gold-producing country weakens against other currencies, the price of gold in that currency may increase, stimulating exports and raising the demand for gold.
- Investment Demand: Investment demand includes the purchase of gold bars, coins, and futures market transactions. Demand typically rises when trust in fiat currencies weakens.
- It's important to consider the interplay of these factors and market expectations when assessing the price of gold.

Forecast: Will the Price of Gold Rise?

When it comes to forecasts, it's important to note that they are mere assumptions based on available information and analysis. As mentioned before, the gold market is complex and subject to the influence of multiple factors. Any forecasts are subjective assessments and can change depending on economic and geopolitical situations, as well as changes in market demand and supply. However, it should be acknowledged that some forecasts have proven to be relatively accurate.

 Here are a few examples of such forecasts made before September 2021. In May 2021, analysts at Goldman Sachs predicted that the price of gold would reach $2,000 per troy ounce by 2024. Two months later, their counterparts at Bank of America made the exact same forecast. The touch of this resistance level occurred one year earlier. However, whether XAU/USD will be able to sustainably establish itself above this level, turning it from resistance to support, remains to be seen.

Currently, Goldman Sachs strategists are indicating a target of $2,200. Meanwhile, the Swiss financial holding UBS believes that the price of gold may rise to $2,100 by the end of 2023 and to $2,200 by March 2024. (It's worth noting that their previous forecast projected a peak of $2,400 for this year). Similar figures are mentioned by analysts at the Economic Forecasting Agency, who believe that the price of gold may even exceed $2,400, but this is expected to occur only in 2027.

***

At the beginning of this overview, we raised the question of whether gold is a protective asset. In his early statements, Warren Buffett expressed scepticism about investing in gold, referring to it as an unproductive asset that doesn't generate income. However, looking at the chart, it becomes clear that he was mistaken. Even the legendary investor himself acknowledged this and later expressed a positive attitude towards gold as a store of value. Prominent financier George Soros also recognized gold as a diversification asset that provides protection against inflation and political instability. Ray Dalio, the founder of investment firm Bridgewater Associates, recommended including this precious metal in one's portfolio.

Most likely, they are all correct, and in the foreseeable future, gold will retain its role as a primary capital preserver. However, it is always important to remember that the effectiveness of any investment depends on the entry point. If the timing of a trade is chosen incorrectly, it is possible that your deposit may start to decrease. Nevertheless, in the case of gold, the probability of XAU/USD rising again is significantly higher than that of many fiat currencies. To withstand drawdowns and ultimately achieve profit, sound money management, as well as time and patience, are necessary.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 14, 2023, 07:20:07 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/0yvjVMc/Crypto-News-14-06-2023.jpg)

– American bitcoin exchanges are likely to be required to register with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as brokers, and all cryptocurrencies will be classified as securities. These conclusions were drawn by strategists at JPMorgan bank. According to experts, such a situation will exert significant pressure on the industry. However, they believe that this approach also has positive aspects, as digital assets will be subject to the same legislation as traditional ones.
JPMorgan analysts noted that the actions of the SEC highlight the need for U.S. lawmakers to develop a clear regulatory framework. According to them, otherwise, the crypto industry is likely to leave the United States and relocate to other jurisdictions, while venture financing in the sector will decline. The new rules will "rid the industry of bad practices and dishonest players, which, in turn, is necessary for the industry to mature and witness more active institutional participation."
It is worth recalling that earlier, the SEC filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. In the court documents, the SEC named over a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a regulator's victory could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already ended up on the regulator's blacklist.

– According to the analytical platform Glassnode, investor behavior has noticeably shifted the distribution of Bitcoin across regions. Experts from the company have reported a significant decline in the share of American players, whose dominance peaked between 2020 and 2021. The downward trend has been observed since the sharp drop in BTC price last year, with the share of Americans decreasing by 11% since mid-2022. During the same period, the share in the Asian region increased by 9.9%.

– Adam Back, the creator of the Hashcash algorithm and CEO of Blockstream, is considered one of the key figures in the field of modern cryptography and the crypto industry. In a recent conversation with Decrypt, this prominent scientist stated that the cryptocurrency market is "anti-fragile." Like water, it flows and, when faced with obstacles, finds alternative paths. Therefore, if any major crypto exchange operating in the United States stops serving its customers due to regulatory pressure, the industry will eventually find a way out. In the event of restrictions on bank transfers in the US, bitcoin traders would simply shift towards opening bank accounts in other jurisdictions in euros or Swiss francs and engage in trading using a different currency.

– Journalists from Bitcoin.com conducted a survey with six popular AI chatbots regarding the potential of Bitcoin becoming a global reserve currency. The experiment involved ChatGPT 3.5 and ChatGPT 4 from OpenAI, Bard from Google, Claude Instant and Claude 4 from Anthropic, as well as the creative mode of Bing AI.
ChatGPT 3.5 struggled to assess the potential of bitcoin and other digital assets, citing existing "issues and uncertainties." According to its response, the likelihood of achieving reserve currency status depends on "current events and the evolution of the crypto currency ecosystem." However, it noted that its information was based on data available until September 2021.
Bard emphasized the need for wider adoption of bitcoin by central banks and other financial institutions, as well as the improvement of price stability and advancements in blockchain technology. The bot stated, "If bitcoin can overcome these challenges, it could become a global reserve asset within the next decade. However, it is also possible that this may never happen or that it will take much longer to achieve this goal."
Claude Instant, pointing out "significant obstacles" for bitcoin in terms of stability and recognition, considered it unlikely for BTC to become a reserve currency in the next 5-10 years. As for the 10–15-year horizon, Claude 4 estimated the probability of such an event to be in the low to moderate range. ChatGPT 4 also stated that it would take "several years or even decades" for bitcoin to achieve reserve currency status and warned that it "cannot confidently predict the future."
Bing AI took a "creative" approach and listed a range of factors that will determine the future of bitcoin. These factors include widespread adoption of the asset, including by financial institutions, innovation and improvement of technology, scalability and user-friendliness, regulation and legal status management, taxation and compliance with regulatory requirements, and competition and interaction with other crypto assets and fiat currencies.
In summary, it can be said that all six Artificial Intelligences behaved like experienced politicians and did not provide any specific answers to the question posed.

– According to The Wall Street Journal, the actions of hackers associated with North Korea have caused $3 billion in damage to the crypto industry. Half of this amount was reportedly used to finance a program for the development of ballistic nuclear missiles. As per the statement by U.S. authorities, North Korea has formed a "shadow" army of thousands of IT specialists around the world for these purposes. Cybersecurity experts believe that the "arms race" with North Korean hackers has only just begun.

– Peter Brandt, known as the "Mysterious Market Wizard," has been successful in accurately predicting the crypto winter of 2018 and many other market movements in the digital asset space. Now, this legendary trader and analyst has virtually "buried" all coins except bitcoin. "Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will be able to finish this marathon. All others, including Ethereum, are counterfeits or scams," wrote Brandt.
Many members of the crypto community were puzzled by the fact that a respected analyst placed the second-largest cryptocurrency, ethereum, in the same category as fraudulent projects. In response, Brandt stated, "Silver to BTC's gold is ETH. ETH will likely survive, but the real legacy is BTC."

– Vitalik Buterin, the founder of ethereum, believes that the success of his blockchain depends on three main "transitions" that need to happen almost simultaneously. According to him, the leading altcoin is "failing" without sufficient scaling infrastructure that would make transactions on the network cheaper.
Another factor is related to the transition to smart contract wallets, which has been challenging in terms of user interaction. Moreover, these wallets will need to protect data to fully align with the concept of zero-knowledge (ZK) privacy. The last factor for ethereum's success that Buterin mentioned is privacy. In his opinion, significant improvements in identification systems and the implementation of hidden addresses are necessary.
"Achieving scalability, wallet security, and user privacy is crucial for the future of ethereum. It's not just about technical feasibility but also about practical accessibility for ordinary users," concluded the network's founder.

– Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, has noted that liquidity in the crypto market has dried up for quite some time, and many people have been blaming the SEC for what is happening. Most of them believe it is the end for the entire industry. According to Cowen, altcoins will face retribution, while Bitcoin dominance will continue to grow.
A similar sentiment was expressed by renowned trader Gareth Soloway, who compared the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. He stated that the collapse that occurred in the early 2000s would repeat itself in this industry. Soloway asserted that the "system needs to be cleansed of garbage" in order to thrive. According to him, 95% of all tokens "will strive toward zero."

– ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood has doubled down on her bitcoin forecast, stating that the leading cryptocurrency will reach seven-figure values. In an interview with Bloomberg, she reaffirmed her confidence that the $1 million target for BTC will be achieved.
According to Wood, the current global economic environment increases her trust in the flagship crypto asset. "The more uncertainty and volatility in the global economy, the more our confidence grows in Bitcoin, which has been and remains a hedge against inflation," she stated. The head of ARK Invest believes that the greater risk lies not in inflation but in deflation, which she sees looming over the world. In this case, the primary cryptocurrency would act as an antidote against the crisis in the traditional financial system.

– Prominent investor and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, has analyzed the market capitalization chart of the crypto market and arrived at discouraging conclusions. According to the analyst, the current situation is not what one would want to see. He noted that a breakthrough below the support of the 200-week moving average (SMA) indicates a continuation of the downward trend.


Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 17, 2023, 11:32:05 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 19 - 23, 2023


EUR/USD: The Euro's Victory Over the Dollar

The key events of the past week were the meetings of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve on Wednesday, June 14, and the European Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee on Thursday, June 15. The outcome of these meetings resulted in a decisive victory for the euro over the dollar.

During the COVID19 pandemic, the Federal Reserve printed and released a large amount of cheap money into the market. This action spurred inflation, which ultimately reached its highest level in the last 40 years. With the pandemic over, the American regulator completely reversed its monetary policy, shifting from Quantitative Easing (QE) to Quantitative Tightening (QT). Over the course of the last ten meetings, in an attempt to curb inflation, the Fed raised the key interest rate, which ultimately reached 5.25%: the highest level since 2006.

Data published on Tuesday, June 13, showed that the core inflation (CPI) in May was 5.3% (year-on-year) after 5.5% a month earlier. This is, of course, progress, but very slight, and the target value of 2.0% is still far off. However, in an effort to avoid economic problems and the continuation of the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve leaders at their meeting decided to keep the interest rate unchanged.

This was not a surprise to the market. Both the vice president of the Federal Reserve, Philip Jefferson, and the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Patrick Harker, talked about the need for a pause in the monetary tightening process. Even the head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, mentioned the possibility of a break. As a result, on the eve of the meeting, the likelihood of the rate remaining at the previous level was estimated by market participants at 95%.

Moreover, data published on Thursday, June 15, showed that industrial production in the US fell by 0.2% in May, and the number of unemployment benefit claims stubbornly remains at the previous level of 262K. This weak statistics increased the market's expectations that the current Fed pause might be extended for a longer period. As for the long-term forecasts published by the FOMC, the peak rate is seen by the committee members at 5.60%, after which a decrease should follow: in a one-year perspective to 4.60%, in a two-year perspective to 3.40%, and then further down to 2.50%.

So, while the Federal Reserve left borrowing costs unchanged at its June meeting, the European Central Bank raised it by 25 basis points (b.p.) - from 3.75% to 4.00%. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the tightening of monetary policy will continue in July. Additionally, inflation forecasts were revised upwards due to rising wages and high energy prices. Based on this, the market expects a 25 b.p. rate hike not only next month but also in September. The ECB's hawkish stance caused a surge in German government bond yields, while U.S. security yields conversely dropped. As a result, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline, and EUR/USD continued to build on its bullish impulse formed earlier in the week. If on Monday, June 12th, it was trading at 1.0732, by June 16th it had reached 1.0970, closely approaching the psychologically important level of 1.1000.

EUR/USD concluded the five-day period at 1.0940. As for near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 16, most analysts (65%) expect the continuation of its upward trend, 25% voted for the pair's fall, and 10% took a neutral position. Among trend indicators on D1, 100% are in favour of the bulls, and among oscillators, 90% are in the green, although a third of them are signalling overbought conditions. The remaining 10% are in the red. The pair's nearest support is located around 1.0895-1.0925, then 1.0865, 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0745, 1.0670, and finally, the May 31 low of 1.0635. The bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0970-1.0985, then 1.1045, and 1.1090-1.1110.

Notable dates on the calendar for the upcoming week include June 21 and 22, which are set for the testimony of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell before Congress. Fresh unemployment data from the US will also be released on Thursday. At the end of the work week, preliminary Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) figures for both Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, as well as for the US services sector, will be revealed. In addition, traders should note that Monday, June 19, is a public holiday in the United States: Juneteenth.

GBP/USD: The Pair's Growth May Continue

Taking advantage of the weakening dollar, the pound actively strengthened its position throughout the past week. Having bounced off the local low of 1.2486 on Monday, GBP/USD soared by 362 points on Friday and reached a high of 1.2848. The week ended slightly lower: at the level of 1.2822. The British currency last felt this good over a year ago, in April 2022.

Bullish investor sentiment was also supported by the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will raise its rate from 4.50% to 4.75% at its meeting on Thursday, June 22, accompanying this decision with hawkish rhetoric and promises to continue tightening its monetary policy.

As a result, economists at Scotiabank expect that GBP/USD may soon rise to 1.3000. They are joined in this prediction by their colleagues from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands. "Looking at the charts," they write, "it seems that there are no significant levels between current levels and 1.3000, which suggests that the latter is not far off."

Overall, the median forecast from analysts appears more neutral. Bullish sentiment is supported by 50% of experts, 40% favor bears, and 10% prefer to refrain from comments. As for technical analysis, 100% of both trend indicators and oscillators point north, but a quarter of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. If the pair moves south, support levels and zones await it – 1.2685-1.2700, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050 and 1.3185-1.3210.

Next week, on the eve of the aforementioned meeting of the Bank of England, on Wednesday, June 21, inflation statistics will be released in the United Kingdom. It is expected that it will show a decrease in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 8.7% to 8.5%. However, such a slight drop will likely not deter the BoE in its hawkish stance. In addition, attention should be paid to Friday, June 23, when the preliminary Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) value will be published in the UK. Since the PMI for Germany, the Eurozone, and the US will also be announced on this day, it will vividly illustrate and allow a comparison of the state of their economies.

USD/JPY: The Pair Yearns to Return to Earth, But Can't

It would have been logical to assume that as a result of the fall in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and US Treasury bond yields, the Japanese currency would strengthen its position and USD/JPY would finally change course: instead of flying to the Moon, it would start landing on Earth. Such a movement even appeared on Thursday, June 15. But it only lasted one day: until the meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), at which it again maintained the policy rate at the negative level of -0.1%. (We recall that the Japanese Central Bank has not changed this rate since January 2016). In addition, as part of the new decision, the regulator announced that it also plans to buy a "necessary" amount of government bonds and continue to target the yield of 10-year securities at a level close to zero.

Economists at MUFG Bank believe that the increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further yen weakening. "The expansion of yield spreads between Japan and foreign countries, coupled with the decrease in currency exchange rate volatility and rates [...] contributes to the yen becoming more undervalued," write MUFG analysts.

Their colleagues at Commerzbank believe that if the Federal Reserve signals two potential new dollar rate increases, the yen's decline will continue. According to specialists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, if another rate hike occurs in the US in July, USD/JPY could rise to 145.00.

Only hopes that the BоJ will eventually take the first step towards ending its ultra-loose monetary policy can alleviate pressure on the Japanese currency. For example, economists at BNP Paribas write that "although we have revised our USD/JPY forecasts upwards considering the higher terminal rate of the Fed and a later expansion of the Bank of Japan's YCC, we continue to forecast a downward trend in USD/JPY". They target levels of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024.

Having fixed a local high at 141.89, the pair ended the past five-day period at 141.82. 70% of analysts expect that the weakening DXY will soon cause a correction of the pair to the south, while the remaining 30% set their goal to reach the height of 143.00. 100% of trend indicators on D1 also look up. Among the oscillators, 90% are also pointing up (a third signals the pair's overbought condition), the remaining 10% are painted in a neutral grey color. The nearest support level is located in the 1.4140 zone, followed by 140.90-141.00, 1.4060, 139.45,1.3875-1.3905, 137.50. The nearest resistance is 142.20, then the bulls will need to overcome barriers at levels 1.4300, 143.50 and 144.90-145.10. And from there it's not far to the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week. The release of the report on the last Bank of Japan meeting on Wednesday, June 21, could be an exception, but market participants are unlikely to find anything new in it: everything has already been said at the press conference on June 16.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Fed and ECB Prevent Bitcoin Catastrophe

(https://i.ibb.co/rFdGv7g/BTCUSD-19-06-2023.jpg)

BTC/USD climbed to the $30,989 mark on April 14, its highest value since June 2022. Since then, the market has been dominated by bearish sentiment for nine weeks in a row. The past week was no exception and did not bring joy to investors. As noted by Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, "this is not the situation you would want to see." The expert noted that breaking support in the form of the 200-week moving average (200WMA) indicates a continuation of the downtrend.

This scenario seemed obvious after the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. Meanwhile, in court documents, the SEC named more than a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already made it onto the regulator's blacklist.

The court rejected the SEC's request to freeze the assets of Binance's American division last week. However, as some observers believe, the battle is far from over. It's worth noting that Gary Gensler, the head of the regulator, has recently stated that cryptocurrencies, in essence, are not needed at all. Quote: "We don't need more digital currency. We already have digital currency. It's called the U.S. dollar. It's called the euro or the yen. Now they are all digital.".

According to strategists at JPMorgan, US bitcoin exchanges are highly likely to be forced to register with the SEC as brokers, and all cryptocurrencies will be classified as securities. While many see this as the beginning of the end for the entire industry, there are optimists. For instance, JPMorgan believes that new rules "will free the industry from bad practices and dishonest players, which in turn is necessary for the industry to mature and see more active institutional participation."

Adam Back, the CEO of Blockstream, tried to calm market participants. Considered one of the leading figures in modern cryptography and the crypto industry, his argument was directly opposed to JPMorgan's. This prominent expert stated that the crypto market is like water, flowing and finding detours when encountering obstacles. So, if any major crypto exchange operating in the US stops servicing its clients due to regulatory pressure, the industry will ultimately find a way out. Bitcoin traders will simply move to other jurisdictions and start trading in other currencies. And it seems that Adam Back is right: the exodus from the US is already underway. According to data from the analytical platform Glassnode, the share of American players has dropped by 11% since mid-2022. At the same time, it has grown by 9.9% in the Asian region.

It's worth noting that many influencers, while predicting a dismal end for cryptocurrencies, often exclude bitcoin from their projections. For instance, Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen stated that liquidity in the crypto market has long since dried up, and altcoins are "due for a reckoning, while bitcoin's dominance will continue to grow." A similar sentiment was expressed by well-known trader Gareth Soloway, who said he has always compared the crypto market to the dotcom bubble. According to him, the collapse that occurred in the early 2000s will repeat in this industry. He assured that "the system needs to be cleared of trash" to flourish, stating that 95% of all tokens "will be striving towards zero."

Peter Brandt, often called the "Mysterious Wizard of the Market," also joined the chorus praising bitcoin. This legendary trader and analyst also metaphorically "buried" all coins, with the exception of bitcoin. "Bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will manage to finish this marathon. All others, including ethereum, are fakes or scams," he wrote. Many members of the crypto community were unsettled by the respected analyst's grouping of ethereum, the second-largest cryptocurrency by capitalization, together with fraudulent projects. In response, Brandt stated that "ETH will likely survive, but the true legacy is BTC."

ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood has doubled down on her bitcoin forecast, stating that the target of $1 million per coin will be realized. According to Wood, the current global economic environment increases her confidence in the flagship cryptocurrency. She stated, "The more uncertainty and volatility there is in the global economy, the more our confidence in bitcoin grows, which has been and remains a hedge against inflation."

CEO and founder of Galaxy Digital, Mike Novogratz, also expects support from the global economy. Specifically, the billionaire predicts that the Federal Reserve will begin lowering interest rates in October, leading to a sharp increase in liquidity inflows into the crypto market. Dan Tapiero, co-founder of 10T Holdings and Gold Bullion International, expressed a more specific outlook, forecasting an "explosive" rally. He stated, "We will likely see new highs in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. And I think during this bull phase, the overall market capitalization of the crypto market will reach $6-8 trillion."

Despite optimistic long-term forecasts, the outlook for the near future does not inspire investors. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone does not rule out a significant decline in the Bloomberg Galaxy Crypto Composite Index, which reflects the performance of leading digital currencies. In an analytical note prepared for investors, he warned of a dominant bearish trend for at least the next few months. Fiona Cincotta, a strategist at City Bank, also cautioned that a drop in the price of bitcoin below the strong support level of $25,000 could further activate sellers and trigger a more pronounced decline in prices.

PlanB, an analyst and the author of the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) forecasting model, asked his 1.8 million followers to provide their Bitcoin price predictions for the end of June. Many responded that Bitcoin would close the first month of summer near the $24,000-25,000 levels. Only a small portion of respondents indicated the potential for further growth above $30,000. Another expert with the username PROFIT BLUE believes that BTC will not be able to sustain itself in the $25,000 range, and the next target for the cryptocurrency will be the $23,700 level. The most pessimistic forecast came from analyst WhaleWire, who did not rule out the coin revisiting its cyclical low. According to WhaleWire, BTC is preparing for a move towards $12,000. The breakthrough of the $15,000 level, WhaleWire is confident, will occur during this summer.

The minimum for the past seven days and the last three months was recorded at $24,791. The main cryptocurrency was saved from further decline by the weakening US dollar, following the decisions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank regarding interest rates. At the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, June 16, BTC/USD recovered all of its losses for the week and is trading at around $26,400. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.064 trillion ($1.102 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has remained in the Neutral zone, although it has decreased from 50 to 47 points over the past seven days.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 21, 2023, 01:40:03 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/Z2j7g7S/Crypto-News-21-06-2023.jpg)

– Bitcoin experienced an unexpected surge from June 15 to 21, smashing through resistance levels of $25,000 and $26,500, and ultimately peaking at $29,000. This represents an impressive six-day growth of approximately 17%. Following in the footsteps of this leading cryptocurrency, altcoins also witnessed similar uptrends. For instance, Ethereum recorded a roughly 12% appreciation.
This notable ascent cannot be attributed to a single catalyst. Rather, bitcoin's rise coincided with a sequence of positive developments within the industry. Investment heavyweight BlackRock submitted a proposal for a spot bitcoin trust, aimed at streamlining institutional entrance into the crypto market. Deutsche Bank, one of Germany's most formidable financial conglomerates, declared its foray into the digital asset sector, taking on cryptocurrency storage duties. Wall Street powerhouses, Citadel and Fidelity, joined forces to launch a decentralized crypto exchange named EDX Markets on June 20th. Invesco, another investment juggernaut, overseeing $1.4 trillion in assets, has lodged an application to roll out a spot Bitcoin ETF. MicroStrategy has even speculated that such a spot Bitcoin ETF could absorb trillions of dollars. One additional factor potentially fuelling bitcoin's rise could be the minting of a fresh batch of Tether stablecoins (USDT).

– It's worth noting that the surge of the flagship cryptocurrency occurred despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on the digital market. Recall that the SEC previously filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered assets. In court documents, the SEC classified more than a dozen tokens as securities. Experts believe that a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and limit the potential development of their blockchains. In total, over 60 coins have already made it onto the regulator's blacklist.
Preston Pysh, a popular author on investment books, believes that this regulatory pressure was part of a planned campaign. The goal being to give major players the opportunity to enter the digital asset market under favourable conditions. He substantiated his perspective with the daring moves made by Wall Street giants, as previously mentioned.

– TV host and billionaire Mark Cuban and former SEC executive John Reed Stark discussed the ongoing crackdown on the crypto industry. Stark believes the SEC's actions are necessary. According to him, the regulator is trying to protect investors from potential fraud and scams in this sector. He's also convinced that the SEC's actions will ultimately benefit the industry, by weeding out dishonest participants and increasing transparency.
As for Mark Cuban, he drew a comparison to the early days of the internet. In the billionaire's view, "90% of blockchain companies will fail. 99% of tokens will fail. Just like 99% of early internet companies."

– El Salvador could potentially clear its debts through bitcoin and geothermal cryptocurrency mining. This viewpoint was expressed by Max Keiser, the CEO of Volcano Energy. The former trader and television host moved to El Salvador in 2022 and now serves as an advisor to President Nayib Bukele. Keiser asserts that, owing to its legal framework regarding cryptocurrency and energy resources, El Salvador could become a global centre for bitcoin mining. This could create new jobs, boost the country's GDP, and enable it to settle its debts with creditors.
As for Volcano Energy itself, Keiser believes that the company's market capitalization will grow to $50 billion, exceeding El Salvador's GDP, which is estimated at $29 billion. According to him, this growth will be driven by bitcoin's price rising to $1 million per coin.

– Author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, is convinced that the crisis in the banking sector is far from over. Last week, he warned of an impending crash in the real estate sector. According to the expert, California-based mortgage lender LoanDepot is already on the brink of bankruptcy, and the looming real estate market crash could likely be far worse than the 2008 crisis. In light of this situation, Kiyosaki once again advised his followers to prepare for disaster by accumulating precious metals and bitcoin.

– Galaxy Digital's CEO, Mike Novogratz, has compared the recent crypto crash to the collapse of Lehman Brothers during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The billionaire believes that the industry needs to be legalized. In that case, it will become transparent, and regulators will be able to ensure investor safety. As it stands, regulators lack sufficient levers to control the movement of funds in digital currencies. Novogratz made these remarks at a summit organized by Bloomberg.
The CEO of Galaxy Digital also believes that in the fight against inflation, demand for alternative instruments will intensify, one of which is bitcoin. He foresees that the price of bitcoin will reach $500,000 in the long term.

– Placeholder venture partner Chris Burniske is known for accurately predicting the crypto bottom in 2022. He also noted that cryptocurrencies often surge when the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) takes a breather. A cooling down in stocks triggers a capital flow into riskier assets, prompting a bullish rally for BTC.
In this context, Burniske referenced data from Glassnode founders Jan Happel and Yann Allemann. According to their observations, starting from 2019, bitcoin has shown strong growth whenever the NDX showed signs of bullish exhaustion. Currently, bitcoin is just a few steps away from outperforming the NDX again, as the index is nearing its local peak. 

– Popular investor and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the market situation makes the realization of negative BTC forecasts impossible, particularly those predicting a drop in cryptocurrency to $12,000. In his opinion, investors should now be "filling their pockets" in anticipation of further growth.

– BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes believes that U.S. authorities are not only hindering the development of the blockchain industry but are also creating conditions for it to shift to China. Last week, he published an article criticizing the U.S. crackdown on the industry. In his article, Hayes emphasized that China is more flexible than the U.S. and allows investors to enter the crypto sphere through platforms registered in Hong Kong. This metropolis is beginning to accumulate significant capital, which positively affects its financial development. Conversely, the American market is losing appeal, forcing companies and funds to leave.

– Former Coinbase CTO, Balaji Srinivasan, has issued a stark warning. He believes that since Apple, Microsoft, and Google have access to all user data on their devices, including private wallet keys, they could assist authorities in confiscating cryptocurrency from its owners if required. He argues that it would only take permission from the governments of G7 countries and China to do this. Srinivasan considers such permission quite possible, as authorities are interested in the development of CBDCs - digital currencies managed by central banks - and the elimination of their competitors in the form of Bitcoin and various altcoins.

– Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned of a potential fall in Ethereum compared to the leading cryptocurrency. ETH/BTC could plummet by 45% from its current value of 0.066 BTC. "As far as I can tell from the chart," he wrote, "we constantly see lower peaks in ETH/BTC, at least in the short term. However, in the longer term, we see even lower peaks in 2017 (0.036 BTC). And this is where the level of recovery might begin." At the same time, the analyst notes that the likelihood of a "bull rally" in this pair without a downward correction is quite low - first, the "bears" need to complete this movement. "Only then will we be able to assess the prospects for ETH/BTC," Cowen concluded.

– For the first time since 2021, BTC's market dominance has approached 50%. This means that half of the entire market capitalization is attributed to a single asset. The index last rose this high two years ago, in May 2021. The current rise is associated with SEC pressure on altcoins and the application for a spot Bitcoin trust by BlackRock.
MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor believes that bitcoin's dominance will reach 80% in the coming years. There are now about 25,000 tokens of varying quality in the market, and this confuses large investors. After the SEC helps remove excess assets, large capital will be more willing to invest in the leading cryptocurrency.

– Cybersecurity analysts have discovered that 95% of users of hacking software for stealing NFTs are schoolchildren. They are responsible for stealing tokens worth $73 million. They then spent these assets on purchasing skins in Roblox, branded items, food delivery, and gambling. According to The Block, high school students do this without fully realizing the crime. They perceive the theft as a game. The peak activity of Newbie trader criminals occurs during the summer holidays when they have more free time.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 25, 2023, 12:23:47 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 26 - 30, 2023


EUR/USD: Officials' Words Drive the Markets

Just a reminder, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve decided on Wednesday, June 14 to pause the process of monetary tightening and left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. The following day, on Thursday, June 15, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised the euro interest rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4.00%. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted that the tightening of credit and monetary policy would continue in July.

The firm rhetoric was supported by other ECB representatives. According to comments from ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn, the underlying inflation in the Eurozone is declining too slowly, necessitating additional efforts from the regulator to stabilize prices. The intentions of the regulator to continue raising rates were also confirmed by ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane and ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel. In their view, the regulator has significant work to do before inflation stabilizes around 2%. (According to the latest data, annual inflation in the Eurozone remained at 6.1%, and the Core Consumer Price Index stood at 5.3%).

Against the backdrop of these hawkish statements from European officials, the markets concluded that at least two more rate hikes should be expected for the euro, in July and September, each by 25 basis points. This continued to push the euro currency higher, and EUR/USD reached a peak at 1.1011 on Thursday, June 22.

However, the financial world doesn't revolve solely around the ECB. On June 21 and 22, market participants' attention was focused on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony before the U.S. Congress. While the overall rhetoric was nearly identical to the press conference on June 14, this time Powell placed more emphasis on the prospects of further rate hikes in the near future. This sentiment became particularly evident on the second day of his testimony. The hawkish stance of the Fed Chair and the market's risk-averse atmosphere helped the American currency outperform its competitors. On Thursday, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) reversed its course and started moving upwards again, while EUR/USD declined.

The growing concerns of a recession in the Eurozone also played against the euro. On Friday, June 23, the European currency came under significant bearish pressure as data from Germany and the Eurozone indicated that business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sector continued to decline at an accelerated pace. Following the release of the PMI statistics, according to Reuters calculations, the likelihood of the ECB's final rate reaching 4.25% decreased to nearly 0%, and EUR/USD reached a local minimum at the level of 1.0844.

However, the situation for the European currency is not as dire, at least in the medium term. For instance, economists at ANZ (The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group) believe that while the Federal Reserve may reduce its key interest rate by 20 basis points by the end of the year, market expectations suggest that the ECB will not lower its rates until early 2024. As a result, the ECB's easing cycle will be later and less significant compared to the Fed's, which is favorable for the euro. Consequently, in Q3, EUR/USD could rise to 1.1200. Overall, according to ANZ, the exchange rates are expected to fluctuate in the range of 1.0500 to 1.1400 throughout 2023.

After the release of PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in the United States, EUR/USD concluded the five-day period at 1.0893. As for the immediate prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 24, the forecast appears highly uncertain: 45% of analysts favored a decline in the pair, while an equal percentage expected its growth, and the remaining 10% adopted a neutral position. Among the oscillators on the daily timeframe, 90% lean towards bullish signals, while 10% remain neutral-grey. Regarding the trend indicators, 80% are coloured green, while 20% are in red. The nearest support levels for the pair are located around 1.0865, followed by 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0745, 1.0670, and finally the May 31 low at 1.0635. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0900-1.0925, followed by 1.0960-1.0985, 1.1010, and 1.1045, with further resistance at 1.1090-1.1110.

The upcoming week brings a cascade of macroeconomic data from the United States. We can expect housing market data on Tuesday, June 27, as well as the release of durable goods orders and capital goods orders. Additionally, the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) from the Conference Board, a leading indicator, will be announced. The results of the country's bank stress tests will be revealed on the following day, Wednesday, June 28, which is particularly interesting given the banking crisis that followed the Fed's interest rate hikes. Furthermore, on the same day, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver a speech. Thursday will bring labour market statistics and GDP data for the country. Finally, on Friday, June 30, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, a key measure of inflation, will be released for US residents. As for the Eurozone economy, preliminary inflation figures (CPI) for Germany and the Eurozone as a whole, which will be published on June 29 and 30, respectively, are of interest.

GBP/USD: Bank of England's Delayed Surprise

The economic data released during the past week concerning the UK appeared quite mixed. A significant inflation indicator, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), remained unchanged for the month, standing at 8.7% YoY, surpassing market expectations of 8.4%. Retail sales showed a positive outlook as they unexpectedly grew by 0.3% for the month, contrary to the anticipated decline of -0.2% and the previous value of 0.5%. The core retail sales, excluding automotive fuel, increased by 0.1% against the negative forecast of -0.3% and the previous month's 0.7%. However, the business activity indicators in the country were disappointing. The preliminary Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased to 53.7 in June, compared to the expected 54.8. The Manufacturing PMI also fell short of expectations, dropping from 47.1 to 46.2 (forecast: 46.8).

The inflation data released on June 21 not only exceeded market expectations but also surpassed the Bank of England's (BoE) own forecasts. Against this backdrop, the central bank surprised the markets during its meeting on Thursday, June 22, by raising the base rate not by 25 basis points but by 50 basis points, bringing it to 5.00%.

Following conventional logic, such a move should have significantly supported the British currency. However, that was not the case. GBP/USD initially jumped 60 pips to 1.2841 within 10 minutes of the BoE decision, but then declined by over 100 pips to 1.2737. Analysts believe that the initial upward movement was driven by news headline-reactive algorithmic trading, but the bullish momentum was later dampened as sellers encountered resistance near 14-month highs recorded on June 16.

Strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, believe that a 150 basis point rate hike was already priced in before the Central bank meeting. The 50-basis point increase has occurred, and now markets are anticipating a further 100 basis point rise to 6.00%. Along with the aggressive rate hike, market speculation is growing that the Bank of England, in order to avoid an economic collapse, may be compelled to begin easing its monetary policy starting from the summer of 2024 (or even earlier).

Economists at Commerzbank argue that the BoE started raising the key rate too late and too slowly, putting itself in a position of playing catch-up. According to their view, the regulator is chasing inflation rather than actively combating it through monetary policy, which could have a negative impact on the British currency.

However, different opinions exist. Scotiabank economists, for example, anticipate that GBP/USD could rise to 1.3000 in the near future. Colleagues at ING share this view, stating, "Looking at the charts, it seems that there are no significant levels between current levels and 1.3000, which suggests that the latter is not far away."

GBP/USD ended the past week at the level of 1.2714. Given the current volatility, theoretically, it could cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. Currently, 45% of surveyed experts support this scenario, while 25% hold the opposite view, and 30% prefer to refrain from commenting. In terms of technical analysis, both oscillators and trend indicators on the daily timeframe mirror the readings of their counterparts for EUR/USD. In the event of a southward movement in the pair, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2685-1.2700, 1.2625, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, and 1.2200-1.2210. In the case of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance levels at 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, and 1.3185-1.3210.

One notable event in the upcoming week's calendar is Friday, June 30, when the GDP data for the United Kingdom will be released.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 25, 2023, 12:26:03 PM
USD/JPY: The Journey to the Moon Continues

We issued a "Ticket to the Moon" for USD/JPY a few weeks ago, and it continues to be in effect. The pair reached a height of 143.86 last week. According to Commerzbank, "the yen's weakness is gradually taking on a dramatic character." Economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) forecast that the dollar is likely to continue rising in the next 1-3 weeks. They state, "The next significant level is 144.00. It is still too early to determine whether the dollar's strength [...] will break above this barrier. On the other hand, our strong support level has been adjusted to 141.60 from 141.00."

Economists at MUFG Bank believe that the increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further weakening of the yen. "The widening yield differentials between Japan and foreign countries, along with the reduction in currency and rate volatility, contribute to the yen becoming increasingly undervalued," write analysts at MUFG. According to their counterparts at the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale, if there is another interest rate hike in the United States in July, the USD/JPY pair could rise to 145.00.

It is clear that the yen is suffering not only from the persistently "dovish" stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) but also from the overall rise in global yields. The pressure on the Japanese currency can only be alleviated by the hope that the BoJ will eventually take the first step towards ending its ultra-loose monetary policy. For instance, economists at Danske Bank hope that USD/JPY exchange rate will fall below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar forecasts are made by strategists at BNP Paribas, with targets of 130.00 by the end of the current year and 123.00 by the end of 2024.

As for the Japanese government and the Bank of Japan, it seems that they are not yet ready for any significant changes. Last week, Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated that while they closely monitor currency movements, they have no intention of commenting on them. He added that "sharp currency movements are undesirable" and that "currency rates should be determined by the market, reflecting fundamental indicators." However, it appears to us that the head of the finance ministry is being deceptive. We only need to recall the unexpected currency interventions carried out by the Bank of Japan last year, prompted by the Ministry of Finance. Through these interventions, the yen was able to strengthen against the dollar by over 1,500 pips. Is it not possible for a similar surprise to occur now?

After reaching another high at 143.86, the pair concluded the past five-day period at 143.71. At the time of writing this review, 60% of analysts anticipate that the yen will recover at least some of its losses and push the pair lower, while 30% of experts point to the west. Although the number of supporters for pair growth this time stands at just 10%, it's worth noting that even the minority can be right. Moreover, it is supported by technical analysis, as all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on the daily timeframe point upwards. However, a quarter of the oscillators actively signal overbought conditions for the pair. The nearest support level is located in the 143.00-143.20 zone, followed by 142.20, 1.4140, 140.90-141.00, 1.4060, 139.85, 1.3875-1.3905, 138.30, and 137.50. The closest resistance is at 143.85, and then bulls will need to overcome barriers at 144.90-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and potentially reach the October 2022 high at 151.95.

There is no significant economic information related to the Japanese economy expected to be released during the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Influencers Currency carry trade on Bitcoin

(https://i.ibb.co/XWZVpCL/ETH-BTC-26-06-2023.jpg)

Bears dominated the crypto market for nine consecutive weeks. However, the situation abruptly changed on June 15 as bitcoin unexpectedly demonstrated a rapid growth. It broke through resistance levels at $25,000, $26,500, and surpassed $30,000, reaching a peak of $31,388 on June 23. The increase during these days amounted to over 26%. Altcoins also followed bitcoin's upward trend, with ethereum gaining approximately 19% in weight.

Bitcoin's surge was fuelled by a series of positive news. The main highlight was the announcement that investment giant BlackRock filed an application to launch a spot bitcoin trust, aiming to simplify institutional access to the crypto market. However, this news wasn't the only one. One of Germany's largest financial conglomerates, Deutsche Bank, declared its entry into the digital asset market and its involvement in cryptocurrency custody services. Wall Street financial giants Citadel and Fidelity joined forces to launch a decentralized crypto exchange called EDX Markets on June 20. Another investment giant, Invesco, which manages assets worth $1.4 trillion, filed an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. (MicroStrategy believes that such an ETF could attract trillions of dollars). Lastly, the issuance of a new batch of Tether (USDT) stablecoins may have also contributed to the growth of BTC/USD.

It is worth noting that the surge of the flagship cryptocurrency occurred despite the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) crackdown on the digital market. Previously, the SEC filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered securities. In the court documents, the Commission classified over a dozen tokens as securities. According to experts, a victory for the regulator could lead to the delisting of these coins and restrict the potential development of their blockchains. The regulator has already included over 60 coins on its blacklist.

Preston Pysh, the author of popular investment books, believes that the regulatory pressure was a planned campaign. Its aim is to provide major players with the opportunity to enter the digital asset market under favourable conditions. He supports his viewpoint with the bold moves made by Wall Street giants, as mentioned earlier.

The TV host and billionaire, Mark Cuban, and former SEC executive, John Reed Stark, discussed the ongoing crackdown on the crypto industry. Stark believes that the actions taken by the SEC are necessary. According to him, the regulator is trying to protect investors from potential fraud and scams in this sector. He is also convinced that the SEC's actions will ultimately benefit the industry by filtering out dishonest participants and increasing transparency. As for Mark Cuban, he drew parallels with the early days of the internet. In the billionaire's opinion, "90% of blockchain companies will fail. 99% of tokens will fail. Just like 99% of early internet companies."

It is worth noting that many influencers are skeptical about cryptocurrencies and are putting bitcoin aside. We have already quoted Benjamin Cowen, the founder of Into The Cryptoverse, who believes that altcoins "will face reckoning while bitcoin dominance continues to grow." A similar sentiment was expressed by renowned trader Gareth Soloway, who stated that he has always compared the crypto market to the dot-com bubble. According to him, a collapse similar to the early 2000s will occur in this industry. Soloway reassured that "the system needs to be cleared of junk" in order to thrive. He believes that 95% of all tokens "will strive towards zero.".

Robert Kiyosaki, the author of the book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," has recently warned about an impending real estate market crash. According to the expert, California mortgage lender LoanDepot is already on the verge of bankruptcy, and the upcoming real estate market collapse is likely to be much worse than the 2008 crisis. In this situation, Kiyosaki once again advised his followers to prepare for the disaster and accumulate precious metals and bitcoin.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, also believes that in the fight against inflation, the demand for alternative instruments will increase, and one of them is Bitcoin, which he predicts will reach $500,000 in the long term. Max Keiser, a former trader and television host who is now an advisor to Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele, mentioned an even higher figure of $1 million per coin. Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, also believes that the $1 million target is achievable.

Peter Brandt, known as the "Mysterious Market Wizard," has joined the ranks of bitcoin praise, expressing doubts about all coins except Bitcoin. This legendary trader and analyst stated that bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency that will successfully finish this marathon. He later added that ethereum (ETH) is likely to survive, but the real legacy belongs to bitcoin. Benjamin Cowen, mentioned earlier, also predicts difficulties for ethereum, suggesting that ETH/BTC may plummet to Q1 2021 levels in the near future, potentially losing up to 45% of its current value.

Chris Burniske, a partner at venture capital firm Placeholder, has noted that cryptocurrencies often experience growth when the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) index takes a breather. Cooling off in stocks prompts capital to flow into riskier assets, and bitcoin begins a bullish rally. Burniske refers to observations made by Glassnode's founders, Jan Happel and Yann Allemann. According to their findings, since 2019, bitcoin has shown strong growth after signs of bullish exhaustion in the NDX. Currently, bitcoin is just a few steps away from surpassing the NDX once again as the index nears a local peak.

Popular investor and founder of venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the current market conditions make it impossible for the negative forecasts for BTC to come true, as some authors predict a drop in the cryptocurrency to $12,000. According to his opinion, investors should now "fill their pockets" in anticipation of further growth.

BTC dominance reached 50% on Thursday, June 21. This means that half of the entire cryptocurrency market capitalization is accounted for by this asset. The last time the index was this high was two years ago in May 2021. The current rise is attributed to the pressure from the SEC on altcoins and the application for a spot bitcoin trust by BlackRock. Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, believes that bitcoin dominance will continue to grow and reach 80% in the coming years. "Currently, there are 25,000 tokens of varying quality in the market, which confuses large investors," he says. "After removing unnecessary assets through the SEC, major capital will be more willing to invest in the leading cryptocurrency.".

At the time of writing the review, on the evening of Friday, June 23, BTC/USD is trading at around $30,840. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.196 trillion ($1.064 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has returned to mid-April levels, jumping from the Neutral zone to the Greed zone over the week, and rising from 47 to 65 points.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on June 28, 2023, 01:44:01 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/D1Jd0H0/Crypto-News-28-06-2023.jpg)

– Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of the 35th President of the United States and participant in the current election race, outlined his plans regarding bitcoin and financial independence of citizens in an interview with The New York Post.
The candidate promised to make decisions that "support bitcoin and transaction freedom, allowing people to manage their own wallets." He clarified that he would create a relaxed regulatory environment in the U.S., which would incorporate "strict control to prevent money laundering." Kennedy also voiced opposition to a digital dollar. "I oppose central bank digital currencies because they are tools of control and oppression, and they are likely to be abused," explained the politician.
He also identified the search for ways to globally regulate Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies as a significant challenge. Citing remarks by Elon Musk, he noted that "AI will first take away jobs, then it will kill us."
For reference: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is an American environmental lawyer, radio host, and writer known for his anti-vaccination advocacy and conspiracy theories.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, a gold enthusiast, and a fervent critic of bitcoin, claimed that there is "nothing lower quality than cryptocurrencies." "Until recently, the rally in highly speculative assets had excluded Bitcoin. Now that it has finally joined the party, it is likely to end soon," he wrote. According to Schiff, such rallies usually end when the "lowest quality things," such as digital assets, finally join them.
Recall that in March, the President of Euro Pacific Capital urged the sale of the leading cryptocurrency and buying gold amidst the issues with Silvergate Bank.

– Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, announced on Twitter that both institutional and retail investors have begun purchasing bitcoin. Notably, according to him, institutions are extremely interested in buying Bitcoin ahead of the approval of spot ETFs.
It's worth noting that the investment giant BlackRock recently filed an application to launch a spot Bitcoin trust, intended to simplify institutional access to the crypto market. Another investment behemoth, Invesco, which manages assets worth $1.4 trillion, has applied to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF. (MicroStrategy believes such an ETF could absorb trillions of dollars).
"The window to buy bitcoin in advance is closing. Bitcoin was the most obvious and profitable investment of the last decade. But it will remain just as beneficial in this decade!", claimed Cameron Winklevoss. Hugh Hendry, the manager of the hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, agrees with him, suggesting that bitcoin could triple its capitalization in the medium term.

– Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, stated in an interview with Bloomberg that the cryptocurrency market has shown incredible resilience in the face of constantly increasing regulatory pressure. The recent application by BlackRock, the largest asset management company, to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF is just one of the reasons for a new bull cycle.
"In fact, bitcoin has been gradually rising since November of last year when FTX collapsed. Meaning, cryptocurrencies grew despite all the growing anxiety. Now we have BlackRock, who has raised the flag and declared that BTC matters. That it's asset institutional investors want to invest in. I believe we've entered a new era of cryptocurrency, which I call 'prime,' and expect a multi-year bull trend that's only just beginning," argues the businessman.
The CEO of Bitwise predicts that not only cryptocurrencies will flourish, but also companies working in this industry. The businessman is expecting a multitude of new crypto firms to enter the stock market, as well as companies with large cryptocurrency reserves.
As early as 2021, Matt Hougan said that the futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs, which exist in the US market, are not particularly suitable for long-term investors due to their high ancillary costs. Only when spot exchange-traded funds for bitcoin emerge will institutional investors begin substantial capital injections.

– Popular bitcoin maximalist and advisor to the President of El Salvador, Max Keiser, believes that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has sufficient technical and political tools to assign XRP and ETH the status of a security, which would ultimately kill these altcoins. "The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) works for the banking cartel, racketeering on behalf of financial structures," Keiser wrote in his blog.
The crypto enthusiast thinks that the mere fact of XRP and ETH's fate being in the hands of regulatory bodies already suggests that these assets are too centralized and incapable of surviving without losses in the lawless and conflict-ridden environment where the SEC operates. Some opponents of the SEC argue that computer code, by definition, cannot be a security. However, Max Keiser considers this a weak and dead-end argument since the functionality and purpose of the crypto asset will play a significant role in its classification.
Recall that the Commission classified Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Coti (COTI), Algorand (ALGO), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), Sandbox (SAND), Axie Infinity (AXS), and Decentraland (MANA) as securities. The crypto community practically did not react to this regulator's statement. Moreover, several cryptocurrency platforms took the SEC's statement as guidance for action and delisted to avoid possible claims.

– The next bitcoin halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024, will reduce miners' rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. According to an analyst operating under the pseudonym InvestAnswers, such a reduction in supply from miners could catalyse a significant bullish surge.
The expert believes that further institutional adoption, including BackRock's application for a spot Bitcoin ETF, will also increase demand for the asset and further reduce supply. Apart from BlackRock, Fidelity, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole, Citadel, and Invesco have also shown activity in the crypto market. Together, they manage assets totalling $27 trillion. And bitcoin's market cap is just a little more than $0.5 trillion. Only a tiny part of this half-trillion is being traded in the market. This implies that "demand for Bitcoins is growing, and the supply is drying up. And that means the price is rising," explained InvestAnswers.

– The main altcoin has secured its position above the key $1850 mark, and a number of analysts believe that ethereum has the potential to realize bullish momentum in the near term. For example, popular expert Ali Martinez points out that ETH may face serious resistance near the $2,000-2,060 zone, as over 832,000 addresses previously opened sales in this range. However, if ethereum overcomes this zone, it has every chance of reaching $2,330 on a sharp impulse. And in perspective, a path opens for further growth up to $2,750.
On the other hand, specialists at Santiment believe that the altcoin is currently unstable. This is due to a significant battle between buyers and sellers near the $1,900 region. However, the overall supply of ethereum on centralized platforms has decreased by 9.2%. In theory, this could provide additional support to the main altcoin.

– Futures contracts for ethereum and bitcoin will expire on Friday, June 30. According to AmberDate, more than 150 thousand BTC options will be liquidated by this deadline on the Deribit Exchange, amounting to approximately $4.57 billion. Another $2.3 billion will be allocated to ETH contracts. Experts from CoinGape believe that this could be a trigger for a serious increase in volatility in July and provide significant support to these assets. However, a lot will also depend on the macroeconomic statistics coming from the U.S.

– Morgan Creek Capital's founder and CTO, Mark Yusko, believes that bitcoin and the crypto markets have entered a bullish trajectory. In his opinion, this trend may last up until the next halving. "I think the rally is just starting. We've just entered the so-called crypto-summer season," the specialist wrote. However, he warned that a speculative explosion caused by halving is usually followed by an excessive reaction in the opposite direction, known as a crypto winter.
According to the head of Morgan Creek Capital, bitcoin is digital gold, and it is ready to replace what physical gold has done for 5,000 years. As for ethereum, Yusko thinks of it as a substitute for fiat currency.

– Ten years ago, Davinci Jeremie posted a video on YouTube in which he strongly recommended his viewers spend at least one dollar on Bitcoin, and explained why BTC would grow in the coming years. At that time, this forecast from Jeremie either angered or amused most investors who did not want to heed the recommendation. Now, they bitterly regret it - the $1 invested at that time could have bought more than 1,000 BTC, which today are valued at $30 million.
 Jeremie noted in a recent interview that bitcoin should be bought even now. According to him, only 2 percent of the world's population owns cryptocurrency, so it still has time to please its investors with new records. "However, there is also one problem here," says Jeremie. "Everyone wants to have a whole Bitcoin. No one wants to go to the store and say, 'Can I get one trillionth of an apple'. So even though Bitcoin is divisible, this property is essentially its Achilles heel. The solution to the problem is to make the display of small parts of BTC more comprehensible. For example, do not write amounts like 0.00001 BTC, but replace them with an equal number of Satoshi, that is, the smallest indivisible particle of 1 bitcoin worth 0.00000001 BTC."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 02, 2023, 12:16:12 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 03 - 06, 2023


EUR/USD: When Will the Pair Return to 1.1000?

Summarizing the second half of June, the result in the EUR and USD confrontation can be said to be neutral. On Friday, June 30, EUR/USD ended up where it traded on both the 15th and 23rd of June.

On Thursday, June 29, some quite strong macroeconomic data came out of the US. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised its GDP figures for the first quarter upwards to 2.0% year on year (YoY) (forecast was 1.3%). As for the labour market, the number of initial jobless claims for the week dropped by almost 30K, reaching the lowest level since the end of May - 239K.

Recall that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve decided at its June 14 meeting to take a pause in the process of monetary tightening and left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. After this, market participants were left to speculate on the regulator's next moves. The released data reinforced confidence in the stability of the country's economy and raised expectations for further dollar interest rate hikes. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike of 25 basis points (bps) at the Fed's July meeting rose to 87%, and the probability that the total rate hike by the end of 2023 will be 50 bps is nearing 40%. As a result, in the middle of Friday, June 30, EUR/USD recorded a local low at 1.0835.

Speaking at an economic forum in Sintra (Portugal) on Wednesday, June 28, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that further interest rate increases would be driven by a strong labour market and persistently high inflation. However, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data published on June 30 indicated that inflation, although slowly, is declining. Forecasts suggested that the PCE index for June would remain at the previous level of 4.7%, but in reality, it fell to 4.6%. This somewhat dampened the bullish sentiment on the dollar, with the DXY index heading lower and EUR/USD returning to the central zone of the two-week sideways corridor, ending the five-day period at 1.0910.

As for the state of the economy on the other side of the Atlantic, following high preliminary inflation data from Spain and Germany, markets expected the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in the Eurozone to rise by 0.7% in June, significantly exceeding the 0.2% a month earlier. However, the actual value, although higher than in May, was only slightly so, at 0.3%. Moreover, the preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Friday, June 30th, showed a decrease in Eurozone inflation from 6.1% to 5.5% YoY (forecast was 5.6%).

Recall that after hawkish statements from ECB leaders made in mid-June, the markets had already priced in two euro rate hikes, in July and September, each by 25 basis points. Therefore, the fresh European inflation data had little effect on investor sentiment.

Friday, June 30, marked not only the end of the quarter but also the first half of the year. In this regard, representatives from several banks decided to make predictions for the second half of 2023 and the start of 2024. Economists at Credit Agricole see risks of a decrease in EUR/USD from current levels in the near term and predict its gradual recovery starting from Q4 2023. In their opinion, over the next 6-12 months, the pair could rise to 1.1100.

Strategists at Wells Fargo expect the dollar to be fairly stable or even slightly stronger for the rest of 2023. However, they predict a noticeable weakening over the course of the following year. "Given our expectations for a later and shallow recession in the U.S. and a later easing of Fed policy," Wells Fargo analysts write, "we anticipate a later and more gradual depreciation of the U.S. dollar. [...] We predict that by the end of 2023, the trade-weighted U.S. dollar rate will change little compared to the current level, and by 2024 it will have declined by 4.5%."

Economists at Goldman Sachs also updated their EUR/USD forecasts. They too now indicate a smaller drop in the coming months and a more prolonged recovery of the euro by the end of 2023 and the first half of 2024. They predict the pair rate to be at 1.0700 in three months, 1.1000 in six months, and 1.1200 in twelve months.

As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of June 30, 50% of analysts voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and the remaining 25% took a neutral position. Among oscillators on D1, 35% are on the side of the bulls (green), 25% are on the side of the bears (red), and 40% are painted in neutral grey. Among the trend indicators, 90% are coloured green, and only 10% are red. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0895-1.0900, followed by 1.0865, 1.0790-1.0815, 1.0745, 1.0670 and, finally, the May 31 low of 1.0635. The bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0925-1.0940, followed by 1.0985, 1.1010, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110.

Upcoming events to note include the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Germany and the US on Monday, July 3. The minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will be published on Wednesday, July 5. The following day, on Thursday, July 6, data on retail sales volumes in the Eurozone will be available. On the same day, the ADP employment report and the PMI for the US service sector will also be published.

Closing out the work week, another batch of data from the US labour market will be released on Friday, July 7, including the unemployment rate and the important nonfarm payroll (NFP) figure. ECB President Christine Lagarde will also deliver a speech on the same day.

Furthermore, traders should be aware that Tuesday, July 4 is a public holiday in the US, as the country observes Independence Day. As a result, the markets will close earlier the day before due to the holiday.

GBP/USD: How Mr. Powell "Defeated" Mr. Bailey

In the previous review, we noted how strongly the words of officials affect quotes. This week was another confirmation of this. On Wednesday, June 28, GBP/USD showed an impressive drop. The cause were the speeches of the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Bank of England's Governor Andrew Bailey in Sintra. Mr. Bailey promised that his Central Bank would "do whatever it takes to get inflation to target level". This implies at least two more rate hikes. However, Mr. Powell did not rule out further tightening of the Fed's monetary policy, even though inflation in the US is much lower than in the United Kingdom. As a result of these two speeches, Jerome Powell and the US currency won, and GBP/USD dropped sharply.

The next day, strong US macro statistics added strength to the dollar. If it were not for the data on the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the US published at the end of the week, the pound would have suffered quite a bit. But thanks to the PCE, in just a few hours it managed to recover almost all the losses and put the final chord at the mark of 1.2696.

In the mentioned speech in Sintra, Andrew Bailey also stated that "the UK economy has proven much more resilient" than the Central Bank expected. We would like to believe the head of the BoE. However, the data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on June 30 raise certain concerns. Thus, the country's GDP grew in Q1 2023 by 0.1% in quarterly terms and 0.2% in annual terms. And if the first indicator remained at the previous level, then the second showed a significant decline: it turned out to be 0.5% lower than the data for Q4 2022.

According to Credit Suisse economists, the situation facing the Bank of England should be defined as genuinely exceptional. But the slowdown in British GDP does not seem to worry the BoE leadership too much, which is focused on combating high inflation.

Following the May and June meetings, the BoE raised the interest rate by 25 basis points and 50 basis points to 5.00%. Many analysts believe that the regulator may bring it up to 5.50% already at the two upcoming meetings, and then to 6.25%, despite the threat of economic recession. Such steps in the foreseeable future will support the pound. At Credit Suisse, for example, they believe that even though the pound has significantly strengthened since September 2022, GBP/USD still has the potential to grow to 1.3000.

From a technical analysis perspective, the indications of oscillators on D1 appear quite uncertain - a third point to the north, a third to the south, and a third to the east. The picture is clearer for trend indicators - 90% recommend buying, 10% selling. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2625, 1.2570, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels of 1.2755, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050, and 1.3185-1.3210.

As for the events of the coming week, the focus will be on the publication of the PMI in the UK manufacturing sector on Monday, July 3. On Tuesday, July 4, the Bank of England's report will be published, which may shed light on the future course of monetary policy. And at the end of the week, on Friday, July 7, the data on the US labour market, including the level of unemployment and such an important indicator as the number of new jobs outside the agricultural sector (NFP), will be released.

In the events for the upcoming week, one can note Monday, July 3, when the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the United Kingdom will be published.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 02, 2023, 12:18:36 PM
USD/JPY: The "Ticket to the Moon" Turned Out to be Multi-Use

(https://i.ibb.co/bRRS8ZP/USDJPY-03-07-2023.jpg)

As soon as we mentioned the potential interventions to support the yen in our last review, almost everyone started discussing this topic, including analysts and even officials from the Japanese Government. Of course, our speculations were not the trigger; it was the exchange rate of the Japanese currency. Last week, USD/JPY continued its "flight to the moon," setting another record at the height of 145.06. Interestingly, it was at the 145.00 mark that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) conducted its first intervention in many years.

It has been said a thousand times that increasing divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Japan and other major central banks is a recipe for further yen weakening. Thus, last week, following the release of US GDP and unemployment claims data, the yield on 10-year US treasury bonds jumped to 3.84%, and two-year bonds to 4.88%, the highest level since March. Therefore, the spread between US and Japanese bonds continues to widen, reflecting the growing divergence in the monetary policy of the Fed and the BoJ and pushing USD/JPY to astronomical heights. Understandably, in such a situation, the question arose about the ability of the Japanese regulator to artificially support its national currency.

Hirokazu Matsuno, the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, stated on Friday, June 30 that the authorities are "closely monitoring currency movements with a high sense of urgency and immediacy." "It's important that the exchange rate moves steadily, reflecting fundamental economic indicators. Recently, sharp unilateral movements have been observed. [We] will take appropriate measures in response to excessive currency movements," promised the high-ranking official.

However, several experts doubt that the Japanese Government and Central Bank have the strength and capability not just to strengthen the yen once, but to maintain it in such a state over an extended period of time. It's enough to recall that less than eight months have passed since the last intervention in November 2023, and here again, USD/JPY is storming the height of 145.00. Since all currency reserves are finite, say Commerzbank specialists, solving this problem will be infinitely difficult, and "all that remains is to hope that officials from the [finance] ministry realize this and do not overestimate their capabilities.".

The monetary policy pursued by the Japanese Government and Central Bank in recent years clearly indicates that their focus is not solely on the yen exchange rate, but on economic indicators. However, it is important to note that one of these indicators is inflation. In this regard, we have seen an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.1% YoY, compared to 3.0% the previous month and 2.7% in February. While these values are significantly lower than those observed in the US, Eurozone, or the UK, no one can guarantee that inflation will not continue to rise further. If the BoJ does not intend to tighten its ultra-easy policy and raise interest rates, the only tool left to maintain the exchange rate is currency interventions. The only remaining question is when they will begin – now or when the rate reaches 150.00, as it did in the autumn of 2022.

Many experts still hold hope that the Bank of Japan will eventually decide to tighten its policy. These hopes allow economists at Danske Bank to forecast a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar predictions are made by strategists at BNP Paribas, who target 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. However, Wells Fargo's forecast appears more modest, with their specialists expecting the pair to only decrease to 133.00 by the end of 2024. Nonetheless, reaching that level would still be considered a significant achievement for the Japanese currency, as it concluded the past week at 144.29 after the publication of US PCE data.

At the time of writing the review, 60% of analysts, like a week ago, anticipate that the yen will recoup at least some of its losses and push the pair to the south, while the remaining 40% of experts point to the east. However, there are no supporters of the pair's growth this time. It is worth noting that there were only a minimal number of supporters the previous week, with only 10%. Nevertheless, USD/JPY continues its journey to the stars. Ultimately, while experts ponder, the market decides. Regarding this matter, there are no doubts from either trend indicators or oscillators: all 100% on D1 point upwards. However, a quarter of the oscillators actively signal overbought conditions for the pair.

The nearest support level is located in the 143.74 zone, followed by 142.95-143.20, 142.20, 141.40, then 140.90-141.00, 140.60, 138.75-139.05, 138.30, and 137.50. The closest resistance is at 144.55, and then bulls will need to overcome barriers at 145.00-145.30, 146.85-147.15, and 148.85, before reaching the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week. However, unless the Bank of Japan announces currency interventions, which they do not typically preannounce.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Institutional Bitcoin Frenzy Gains Momentum

What has been talked about and dreamed of for so long seems to be happening: global financial giants are finally believing in the bright future of Bitcoin. Back in 2021, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, mentioned that futures-based cryptocurrency ETFs were not suitable for long-term investors due to high associated costs. He stated that once spot-based bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) emerged, institutional investors would start pouring significant investments. Recently, in an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan announced the dawn of a new era, saying, "Now we have BlackRock raising the flag and stating that BTC has value, that it's an asset in which institutional investors want to invest. I believe we are entering a new era of cryptocurrencies, which I call the 'mainstream era,' and I expect a multi-year bull trend that is just beginning.".

A spot BTC ETF is a fund whose shares are traded on an exchange and track the market or spot price of BTC. The main idea behind such ETFs is to provide institutional investors with access to bitcoin trading without physically owning it, through a regulated and financially familiar product.

Currently, eight major financial institutions have submitted applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to enter the cryptocurrency market through spot-based ETFs. Alongside investment giant BlackRock, these include global asset managers such as Invesco and Fidelity. Global banks such as JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, and Credit Agricole have also joined the bitcoin fever.

It is worth noting that the SEC has previously rejected all similar applications. However, the current situation may be different. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has confirmed that the SEC considers bitcoin a commodity, opening up broad prospects for the leading cryptocurrency. Cameron Winklevoss, one of the founders of the cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, has confirmed that institutional investors are ready to start buying BTC, expecting the approval of spot-based BTC funds. "Bitcoin was the obvious and most profitable investment of the past decade. But it will remain the same in this decade," said Winklevoss. This sentiment is shared by Hugh Hendry, the manager of Eclectica Asset Management hedge fund, who believes that BTC could triple its market capitalization in the medium term.

When it comes to altcoins, the situation is somewhat more challenging. Max Keiser, a popular bitcoin maximalist and now an advisor to the President of El Salvador, believes that Gary Gensler has enough technical and political tools at his disposal to classify XRP and ETH as securities, which would ultimately kill these altcoins. "The Securities and Exchange Commission is working for the banking cartel, engaging in racketeering in the interest of financial structures," Keiser wrote in his blog.

It is worth noting that the SEC has filed lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase, accusing the platforms of selling unregistered securities. In the court documents, the Commission identified Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC), Coti (COTI), Algorand (ALGO), Filecoin (FIL), Cosmos (ATOM), Sandbox (SAND), Axie Infinity (AXS), and Decentraland (MANA) as securities. Several cryptocurrency platforms have already taken this SEC statement as guidance and, to avoid potential claims, have delisted these altcoins.

The statements above indicate that bitcoin is likely to maintain its market leadership in the foreseeable future. Mark Yusko, the founder and CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believes that the bullish trend of BTC could continue until the next halving, which is expected to occur in April 2024. "I think the rally is just beginning. We have just entered what is known as the crypto summer season," wrote the expert. However, he cautioned that after the speculative surge caused by the halving, there is typically an excessive reaction in the opposite direction, known as crypto winter.

According to an analyst known as InvestAnswers, in addition to the upcoming halving, the institutional adoption that has begun will help drive the growth of BTC by increasing demand for the asset and reducing its supply. The aforementioned investment giants collectively manage trillions of dollars in assets, while the market capitalization of Bitcoin is just over $0.5 trillion. Only a tiny fraction of this $0.5 trillion is actively traded on the market.

Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital and a staunch critic of Bitcoin, holds the opposite view. He believes that there is "nothing more low-quality than cryptocurrencies." "Until recently, the rally in highly speculative assets excluded bitcoin. Now that it has finally joined the party, it is likely to end soon," he stated. According to Schiff, such rallies typically come to an end when "the lowest-quality things" eventually join them, referring to digital assets.

Looking at the BTC/USD chart, there is a suspicion that Peter Schiff might be right. After soaring on the news of BlackRock's and other institutional players' interest, the pair has been trading sideways within a narrow range of $28,850 to $31,000 for the past week. According to analysts, besides concerns about SEC actions, bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are currently being weighed down by miners. Breaking the $30,000 barrier prompted them to send a record volume of coins to exchanges ($128 million in just the past week). Crypto miners fear a price reversal from a significant level due to increased regulatory scrutiny in the industry. Additionally, the average cost of mining remains higher than the current prices of digital assets due to the doubling of computational difficulty over the past year and a half. As a result, miners are forced to sell their coin holdings to sustain production activities, cover ongoing expenses, and repay debts.

As of the time of writing the review, on Friday evening, June 30, BTC/USD is trading around $30,420. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased to $1.191 trillion ($1.196 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is on the border between the Greed and Neutral zones, dropping from 65 to 56 points over the week.

New catalysts are needed for further upward movement. One of them could be the expiration of futures contracts for ethereum and bitcoin on Friday, June 30. According to AmberDate, over 150,000 BTC options with a total value of around $4.57 billion were settled on the Deribit Exchange. Additionally, $2.3 billion worth of contracts were settled for ETH. According to experts from CoinGape, this could trigger significant volatility in July and provide strong support for these assets. However, much will also depend on the macroeconomic data coming out of the United States.

As of the evening of June 30, ETH/USD is trading around $1,920. Several analysts believe that ethereum still has the potential for further bullish momentum. Popular expert Ali Martinez points out that ETH may encounter significant resistance near the $2,000-2,060 range, as over 832,000 addresses previously opened sales in this range. However, if ethereum surpasses this zone, it has a good chance of experiencing a sharp impulse towards $2,330. Furthermore, there is potential for further growth towards $2,750 in the long term.

And finally, a bit of history. Ten years ago, Davinci Jeremie posted a YouTube video strongly recommending his viewers to spend at least one dollar to purchase bitcoin and explained why BTC would grow in the coming years. At that time, Jeremy's forecast angered or amused most people who did not want to listen to his recommendation. However, they now deeply regret it as they could have acquired over 1,000 BTC for the $1 they would have invested, which is worth $30 million today.

In a recent interview, Jeremy emphasized that it is still worthwhile to buy bitcoin. According to him, only 2 percent of the world's population owns cryptocurrency, so it still has the potential to delight its investors with new records. "However, there is also one problem," says Jeremy. "Everyone wants to own a whole bitcoin. No one wants to go to a store and say, 'Can I get one trillionth of an apple?' So, although bitcoin is divisible, this property is essentially its Achilles' heel. The solution to this problem is to make the display of small fractions of BTC more user-friendly and understandable. For example, instead of writing amounts like 0.00001 BTC, they could be replaced by the equivalent amount of satoshis, which is the smallest indivisible unit of one Bitcoin valued at 0.00000001 BTC."
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 02, 2023, 01:09:30 PM
June Results: Gold and Pound Remain in NordFX Top 3

(https://i.ibb.co/sF3x0tV/June-2023.jpg)

The brokerage company NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for June 2023. Additionally, the social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, were evaluated, along with the profits generated by the company's IB partners.

- The trader from South Asia, with account No.1658XXX, emerged as the leader for the month, achieving a profit of 66,634 USD. This impressive performance was accomplished through transactions involving gold (XAU/USD), British pound (GBP/USD), and euro (EUR/USD)
- A representative from Western Asia secured the second place, with account No.1692XXX and a result of 36,544 USD. This individual utilized identical trading instruments: gold, the British pound, and the euro. In all pairs, the US dollar also served as the quoted currency.
- Securing the third spot on the podium was another trader from Western Asia, with account No.1553XXX. This trader earned a total of 30,904 USD in June, primarily from trades involving the same instruments, gold and the British pound.

The situation unfolded as follows in NordFX passive investment services:

In CopyTrading, we continue to track the fate of the veteran signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. For over seven months, it has been recovering from the shock of November 14, 2022 (when its drawdown exceeded 67%). However, the signal experienced a new shock between June 20-23, and to prevent the account from being wiped out, the signal author decided to close the loss-making positions. As a result, the profit returned to the November 2022 level and currently stands at 221% over 788 days of operation.

Another signal, Trade2win, received a fantastic profit of 5,343% in the spring with an equally fantastic drawdown of less than 15%. However, as we warned in our previous review of this signal, trading in financial markets is risky and past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future. This is exactly what happened with Trade2win: no transactions were made based on this signal in June, and all indicators remained at May's level.

From the startups, the signal SM04 caught our attention this time. In its 53 days of existence, it has generated almost 80% profit with a relatively moderate drawdown of about 22%.

On the PAMM service showcase, there remain two accounts that we have mentioned repeatedly in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. On November 14, 2022, similar to their colleague from CopyTrading, they suffered significant losses: their drawdown approached 43%. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and as of June 30, 2023, the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 103%, and on the second, 68%. The growth over the last month was insignificant, but both of these accounts managed to avoid the shock that KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K experienced in June.

Additionally, we continue to monitor the Trade and earn account. It was opened over a year ago but was in a state of hibernation, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 8 months, the return on it has reached 145% with a very small drawdown of less than 10%.

Among NordFX's IB partners, the top three stand as follows:
- For the second consecutive month, the top spot is held by a partner from Western Asia, with account No.1645XXX. While in May he was awarded a commission of 10,370 USD, it amounted to 10,005 USD in June.
- In second place is a partner from South Asia, with account No.1597XXX, who received a commission of 6,142 USD.
- And rounding out the top three is a partner from Eastern Asia, with account No.1169XXX, who earned 5,436 USD in June.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 05, 2023, 02:37:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/9wshcqC/Crypto-News-05-07-2023.jpg)

– Numerous Twitter users, including many cryptocurrency traders and investors, have voiced complaints against Elon Musk. The discontent was tied to the billionaire and new owner of the social network implementing a series of restrictions. Starting from July 1, 2023, verified users are able to view up to 6,000 posts per day, while unverified users are limited to only 600. At the same time, this limit is further reduced to 300 posts for new accounts.
According to several experts, these new restrictions may have a negative impact on the crypto market. Many industry participants have been receiving a large amount of important information via Twitter. However, it has now become significantly more difficult to obtain current data and news.
Musk himself assured that this measure is temporary and is necessary in order to reduce the load on the system's internal servers. He said that the limits will later increase to 8,000, 800, and 400 posts, respectively.

– The rapid fall in the price of the leading cryptocurrency is only a matter of time. This was asserted by the president of Euro Pacific Capital, "gold bug" Peter Schiff, adding that he had underestimated the "bubble potential of Bitcoin." In his view, most investors do not believe in the first cryptocurrency, they merely hope that someone will buy it at a high price.
The businessman believes that stories about people losing money on cryptocurrency will overshadow those about people getting rich from it. "The peak we saw in 2021, around $70,000, that's it, and ultimately bitcoin will burst," he predicted.

– "The adoption of spot bitcoin ETFs is a major event for the crypto industry," stated Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy. "It's an important milestone on the path to institutional acceptance. I believe it's important, but I don't think bitcoin will rise overnight to $5 million."
"The approval of spot bitcoin ETF applications will make investors realize that the first cryptocurrency is a legitimate asset," the billionaire explained. "If the SEC approves applications for this asset, a user can press a button and purchase $10 million of BTC within 30 seconds." (The SEC is currently reviewing several applications for the launch of spot cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds. However, the Commission maintains that these applications are not sufficiently clear and comprehensive.)
For reference: MicroStrategy additionally purchased 12,333 BTC amounting to a total of $347 million between April 29 and June 27. Saylor's company now owns a total of 152,333 BTC, valued at over $4.6 billion, which were acquired at an average rate of $29,668.

– A survey revealed that 92% of Earth's inhabitants have heard of cryptocurrencies at least once. The study involved 15,158 individuals aged between 18 and 65 years from 15 countries across America, Europe, Asia, and Africa.
37% of the respondents consider this asset class as part of the monetary system. However, only 15% of Britons and 17% of Germans agree with this statement. Nigerians (65%) and Argentinians (56%) are the most interested in holding digital assets, seeing them as an effective means of preserving value. Analysts attributed this to the instability of local financial systems and state currencies. 26% of those surveyed consider crypto assets to be a scam. Primarily, Americans and Britons associate cryptocurrencies with fraudulent schemes.

– Most cryptocurrency exchanges do not allow minors to trade digital assets, but parents can open accounts on their behalf and allow them to participate in trading. Youth readily engage in this activity, and there are numerous stories of children investing in Bitcoin since its inception. For instance, Erik F. received $1,000 to invest in BTC when he was 12 years old, and by the time he turned 18, he had become a millionaire thanks to it.
According to data published last year by the platform Gohenry, 1.33 million children in the UK invested money in cryptocurrency. Moreover, a study titled "Parents, Kids, and Money," conducted by T. Rowe Price, showed that 57% of children aged 8-14 are familiar with digital currencies. They are better informed about cryptocurrencies than their parents, with only 47% of parents familiar with the technology - 10% less than their kids.

– Market participants should exercise more caution when trading cryptocurrency, warned CoinDesk researchers. The fact is that starting from Q4 2022, global fiat liquidity indicators have been rapidly declining, and the rise in BTC quotes in such conditions is an anomaly. The BTC rate hit a local price bottom of $15,500 in November last year and has since doubled in price to $31,000. Moreover, just since June 15, its value has spiked by over 20%. This occurred against the backdrop of news that major companies had once again submitted applications for the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs.
According to Lewis Harland, portfolio manager at Decentral Park Capital, the situation remains complex. He confirmed that lately, tracked fiat indicators, such as the Fed's net liquidity and global net liquidity level, have significantly dropped. "This is the main reason why we are cautious about BTC, despite the market's optimistic consensus. We think that investors are overlooking this," Harland added.
The global net liquidity indicator, which takes into account the supply of fiat in several major countries, has decreased to $26.5 trillion - the lowest level since November 2022. Such data was provided by the platforms TradingView and Decentral Park Capital.

– Crypto strategist and trader known as Bluntz, who accurately pinpointed the bottom of bitcoin's bear market in 2018, believes that ethereum is showing all the signs of a powerful rally that could occur in the coming months. According to his words, the remaining part of 2023 may set ethereum on parabolic growth, allowing the leading smart contract platform to significantly outperform BTC.
Bluntz is considered an experienced practitioner of technical analysis and, in particular, Elliott Wave Theory, which allows forecasting price behaviour following the psychology of the crowd that tends to manifest in waves.
According to this theory, a bullish asset shows a five-wave rally, with the third wave signalling the steepest rise. Bluntz suggests that ethereum is already in the early stages of the third wave's surge, which could lead to ETH approaching $4,000 by the end of 2023.

– Crypto trader Altcoin Sherpa is confident that the leading cryptocurrency may rise to $32,000 first and then to the new 2023 high of $40,000. However, he's not certain about the latter. This should be followed by a significant downward correction.
Addressing the ETH/BTC pair, Altcoin Sherpa noted that ethereum is likely to fall relative to the flagship crypto asset and target the minimum range around 0.053 BTC, or $1,614.

– Well-known crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen made a forecast about the likely price trajectory of Bitcoin and altcoins. In his opinion, compared to current levels, bitcoin could grow approximately by 14% and reach a maximum of $35,000 in 2023. "In the short term, it's really hard to say whether bitcoin can rise a bit again. For myself, I set a target of $35,000," the expert said.
Cowen also talked about what will happen to other coins if the BTC price does reach this goal. He believes this will be insignificant news for the altcoin market, as it will most likely continue to crash in pairs with Bitcoin. "Upon reaching $35,000, Bitcoin at some point must go down," argues Cowen. "I think it will have to repeat some of these movements, as usually happens in the year preceding the halving. And at this point, the altcoin market will drop a little bit more, and the dominance of Bitcoin will continue to grow. Liquidity is drying up, so people see relative safety in Bitcoin compared to the altcoin market. But this does not mean that Bitcoin cannot fall, it means that it is somewhat safer."

– Marathon Digital CEO Fred Thiel reported that the global financial market is demonstrating a decrease in correlation between two assets that investors traditionally view as effective hedges against market volatility. While the price of Bitcoin is showing explosive growth, the price of gold is gradually decreasing. Fred Thiel suggested that this not only indicates a shift in priorities in favor of digital assets but also demonstrates the widening accessibility of bitcoin to a broader circle of investors.
In April, analytical company Kaiko cited data on the correlation between BTC and XAU within 50%. At the time, according to Kaiko analyst Dessislava Aubert, this represented the strongest link between the two assets in more than a year.

– According to technical analysis data, the main cryptocurrency's rate on the BTC/USD chart may form a new "bullish flag". This opinion was expressed by experts from Fairlead Strategies. "Bitcoin is digesting its gains during the consolidation phase," they said. "A new bullish flag might be forming, which will emerge when breaking above the weekly Ichimoku cloud around $31,900."
The experts explained that this figure consists of a pole and a flag. According to them, its pole represents the initial price rally, and the flag represents the subsequent consolidation, caused by a "temporary exhaustion of bullish sentiments" and the absence of strong pressure from sellers. According to the theory of technical analysis, once an asset breaks the price above the contour of the flag, it tends to grow by an amount approximately equal to the length of the pole.
In the case of bitcoin, the upward movement from the June 15, 2023, low at $24,790 to the June 23 high at $31,388 represents the pole, and the subsequent consolidation formed the flag. According to analysts, a potential BTC breakout will allow the cryptocurrency's cost to reach the next key resistance level at $35,900.

– Venture capitalist Tim Draper has revised the timeframe within which the price of the main cryptocurrency is supposed to grow to $250,000. "I think we'll have to wait a little longer," the billionaire wrote, adding that his forecast will come true by the end of June 2025 with a 100% probability.
Draper had previously predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. When his forecast didn't come true, he extended the timeline for its realization by another six months to mid-2023. Now he has made a new "correction", adding that the BTC price will exceed his assumptions due to the adoption of cryptocurrency by women.
However, Draper expressed concern about the regulation of digital assets. "Law enforcement regulation is killing our economy," he wrote on June 20. "I think we have a real problem because the SEC is sowing fear, and all innovators are leaving the country... This forced regulation doesn't make sense."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 10, 2023, 08:38:42 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 10 - 14, 2023


EUR/USD: Much Depends on the CPI

(https://i.ibb.co/1nJXMvj/EURUSD-10-07-2023.jpg)

The Dollar Index (DXY) steadily increased during the past week, leading up to Thursday, July 6. As a result, EUR/USD was more inclined towards the American currency, causing the pair to find a local bottom at the 1.0833 level. The dollar's strength was driven by the publication of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) last meeting on June 14. In it, the Committee members highlighted the risks of inflationary pressure and expressed a commitment to swiftly achieve their target inflation levels of 2.0%. They also noted the appropriateness of at least one more interest rate hike, in addition to the one in July, which boosted confidence for DXY bulls. Recall that the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, also stated at the end of June that the "vast majority of Federal Reserve leaders expect two or more rate hikes by the end of the year".

Everything seemed to be going well for the dollar. However, the statistics released throughout the week were quite mixed, stirring doubts regarding the unwavering hawkish policy of the regulator. On one hand, according to the ADP report, employment in the US private sector, with a forecast of 228K, actually grew by 497K in June, significantly higher than the 267K in May. On the other hand, the JOLTS job openings index stood at 9.82 million in May, down from 10.3 million the previous month and falling short of the expected 9.935 million. The US manufacturing PMI index, which has been falling for eight consecutive months, disappointed as well, reaching 46.0 in June – the lowest level since May 2020. Commenting on these figures, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that "the health of the US manufacturing sector deteriorated sharply in June, and this is fuelling fears that the economy may slide into recession in the second half of the year".

These fears were further exacerbated by renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Against this backdrop, market participants are questioning whether the Fed will dare to make another interest rate hike after the July one? (The market has long taken into account the rate increase on July 27 from 5.25% to 5.50% in its quotations.) Or will the regulator announce the end of the current monetary tightening cycle? The latest batch of labour market data released on Friday, July 7, could help answer this question.

The figures turned out to be disappointing for DXY bulls. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP), a key barometer of potential economic cooling in the United States, showed that the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector decreased to 209K in June. This figure is lower than both the May value of 306K and the forecast of 225K. As for the growth of average hourly wages, according to the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, this indicator remained at the previous level: 4.4% YoY and 0.4% MoM. The only market expectation that was met was the unemployment rate, which decreased from 3.7% to 3.6% over the month.

Following the release of such data, dollar sellers returned to the market, and EUR/USD ended the work week at the 1.0968 level. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of July 7, 35% of analysts forecast further growth for the pair, 45% anticipate a decline, and the remaining 20% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, 80% favour the bulls, 20% the bears, and all trend indicators are leaning towards bullish. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0895-1.0925, followed by 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0790-1.0800, 1.0740, 1.0670, and finally, the May 31st low of 1.0635. The bulls will meet resistance in the 1.0975-1.0985 area, followed by 1.1010, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110.

The upcoming week brings a whole package of US consumer inflation data that could have the most significant impact on the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) values, including the core, will be published on Wednesday, July 12. The next day, on Thursday, July 13, we'll get information on key indicators such as the number of initial jobless claims and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). On Friday, as a 'cherry on top', we'll be presented with the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index. As for important European statistics, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Tuesday.

GBP/USD: Prospects for a Bullish Trend

In the past week, the pound clearly became the beneficiary in GBP/USD. As of June 29, the British currency was trading at the 1.2600 level, and by July 7, it had already reached a high of 1.2848.

The pound was buoyed by weak manufacturing activity and labor market data in the US, and doubts about the continuation of the Fed's hawkish stance. It was also helped by the fact that the UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) came in at 46.5 in June, which, although lower than the previous figure of 47.1, was above the market expectation of 46.2. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of further active tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of England (BoE) is practically beyond doubt. Following its meetings in May and June, the BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points and 50 basis points to 5.00%. Many analysts believe that the regulator could push it up to 5.50% in the next two meetings, and then even up to 6.25%, despite the threat of an economic recession. In such a situation, the British currency has a significant advantage. For example, at Credit Suisse, they believe that GBP/USD still has potential to grow to 1.3000.

The pair ended the past week at the 1.2838 level. "The trend momentum remains confidently bullish across short-term, medium-term, and long-term oscillators, suggesting that the push to 1.2850 (and beyond) is still in play," Scotiabank economists write. In theory, with the current volatility, GBP/USD could cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. However, at this point, only 25% of experts support this scenario. The opposite position was taken by 45%, and neutrality was maintained by 30%.

As for technical analysis, 90% of the oscillators on D1 point to the north (a quarter are in the overbought zone), and 10% are looking to the east. 100% of the trend indicators recommend buying. In case of the pair's movement to the south, it will find support levels and zones at 1.2755, 1.2680-1.2700, 1.2590-1.2625, 1.2480-1.2510, 1.2330-1.2350, 1.2275, 1.2200-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2850, 1.2940, 1.3000, 1.3050 and 1.3185-1.321.

Notable events for the upcoming week include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday, July 10, and the release of the UK's labour market data on Tuesday, July 11.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 10, 2023, 08:40:30 AM
USD/JPY: The Pair's Interrupted Flight and Triumph of the Bears

What experts had long been waiting for has finally happened: USD/JPY interrupted its "moon flight" and switched to an emergency decline. More precisely, it was not just a decline, but a real crash. The reason for it, of course, was weak macroeconomic data from the U.S. since nothing has changed on the side of Japan. The policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) remains unchanged. The Deputy Governor of the Central Bank, Shinichi Uchida, has recently once again ruled out the possibility of an early end to ultra-soft monetary policy and exit from negative interest rates.

The monetary policy carried out by the Government and the Central Bank of Japan over the past few years clearly indicates that the yen rate, and even inflation, are not their top priority, even though the CPI has accelerated to 3.1% YoY. The main thing is the economic indicators, and it seems that everything is fine here. The Tankan Index of Large Manufacturers published on Monday, July 3, showed an impressive increase from 1 to 5 (with a forecast of 3), indicating an improvement in the business climate in the country.

USD/JPY traded at 145.06 on June 30, and the minimum on July 7 was recorded at 142.06. Thus, in just a week, the yen managed to win back a full 300 points from the dollar. The reason for such a triumph of the bears is the oversold Japanese currency. As strategists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale point out, the yen hasn't been this cheap since the 1970s. "Large pricing errors can last longer than we are used to thinking," they write, "but this one is extraordinary, and as soon as rates start to convert again, the yen will undoubtedly start a rally." Analysing the pair's prospects, Societe Generale expects that the yield on 5-year U.S. bonds will drop to 2.66% in a year, allowing USD/JPY to break below 130. If the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remains at the current level, the pair has a chance to even drop to 125.00.

We noted in the last review that Danske Bank economists predict a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 on the horizon of 6-12 months. Strategists at BNP Paribas make a similar forecast - they target the level of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. The Wells Fargo prediction looks modest - its experts believe that by the end of 2024, the pair will only drop to 133.00.

The past week saw USD/JPY end at 142.10. At the time of writing this review, 60% of analysts believe that the southward movement is just a short-term correction, and that the pair will return to growth in the coming days. The remaining 40% voted for its further fall. The indications of indicators on D1 are quite diverse. Among oscillators, 25% are coloured green, 15% are neutral grey, and 60% are red (with a quarter signalling the pair's oversold). Among trend indicators, the balance of power between green and red is 50% to 50%. The nearest support level is in the zone of 1.4140-141.60, followed by 140.45-140.60, 1.3875-1.3905, 137.50, 135.90-137.05. The nearest resistance is 145.00-145.30, then the bulls will need to overcome obstacles at the levels, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and from there it is not far to the October 2022 peak of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected to be released in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Three Growth Triggers - The Federal Reserve, Halving, and Women

The beginning of the summer turned out to be quite hot for the crypto industry. On the one hand, regulators continued to tighten their grip on the sector. On the other, we are witnessing a surge in institutional interest. First and foremost, it is applications for the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs from such giants as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others.

Regarding regulatory pressure, debates have been going on for over a year. Some warmly welcome this process, while others protest. The former argue that this will cleanse the industry of unscrupulous participants and attract billions, if not trillions, of institutional dollars to the crypto market. The latter claim that the intervention of the same US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) completely breaks the main principle of cryptocurrencies - independence from states and governments. "Law enforcement regulation is killing our economy," wrote Tim Draper, co-founder of venture capital firm Draper Fisher Jurvetson, on June 20. "I think we have a real problem because the SEC is sowing fear... This compulsory regulation doesn't make sense.".

Note that the SEC has previously rejected all applications to create spot ETFs on bitcoin. This time around, the Commission stated that the fresh applications are not clear and comprehensive enough. However, companies are not retreating and have already submitted edited versions. "Approval of applications for a spot ETF on bitcoin will let investors know that the first cryptocurrency is a legitimate asset," explains MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor. "If the SEC approves applications for this asset, a user can press a button and buy bitcoin for $10 million in 30 seconds." "This is an important milestone on the path to institutional acceptance. I think it's important, although I don't think bitcoin will grow to $5 million overnight," the billionaire concluded. However, in the medium term, according to Hugh Hendry, manager of hedge fund Eclectica Asset Management, bitcoin could triple its capitalization.

By the way, the aforementioned Tim Draper previously predicted that the price of bitcoin would reach $250,000 by the end of 2022. When his forecast did not come true, he extended the timing of its realization by another six months until mid-2023. Now Draper has adjusted his forecast again - according to him, the main cryptocurrency will reach the stated goal with a 100% probability by the end of June 2025. Moreover, one of the drivers of growth will be the acceptance of bitcoin by women.

Housewives paying for purchases with bitcoin can undoubtedly become a serious factor. However, more "conservative" analysts prefer to point to two others: 1) the easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and 2) the upcoming bitcoin halving in April 2024. In anticipation of these two events, crypto exchanges are noting a decrease in supply, and long-term holders have accumulated a record number of coins in their wallets: 13.4 million bitcoins.

Regarding point 1. At its June meeting, the Federal Reserve decided to take a pause and left the key interest rate unchanged. However, the possibility of one or two more hikes of 25 b.p. each is not ruled out. After this, the cycle of monetary tightening may be completed, and at the end of 2023 - the beginning of 2024 markets expect a reversal and the start of a decrease in the rate. This should positively affect investors' risk appetite and facilitate the inflow of capital, including into digital assets.

Point 2. Halving. This event also usually has a positive effect on bitcoin quotes. A correlation between the halvings that occur every four years and the dynamics of the coin's value has long been noted. Analyst Root presented an interesting radial diagram on this topic. Making a circle in four years, the price forms the cycle's peaks and troughs in the same sectors. And, according to this diagram, after finding the bottom in 2023, bitcoin should move towards a price of $1 million per coin, which it will reach in 2026.

As for the near future, CoinDesk researchers believe that market participants should now be doubly cautious when trading cryptocurrency. The fact is that since the IV quarter of 2022, fiat liquidity indicators worldwide are rapidly declining, and the growth of BTC quotes in such conditions is an anomaly. The BTC rate reached a local price bottom at the $15,500 mark last November and since then has doubled to $31,000. Moreover, since June 15 alone, the price has jumped by more than 20%.

According to Decentral Park Capital's portfolio manager Lewis Harland, the situation remains complicated. He confirmed that recently tracked fiat indicators, such as the net liquidity of the Fed and the global level of net liquidity, have fallen sharply. "This is the main reason why we are cautious about BTC, despite the optimistic market consensus. We think investors are overlooking this," added Harland. (The global net liquidity indicator, which accounts for fiat supply in several major countries, has dropped to $26.5 trillion - the lowest level since November 2022. These data were provided by TradingView and Decentral Park Capital).

Anomalous, in the opinion of several specialists, is also the drop in correlation between physical and digital gold. While the price of bitcoin shows explosive growth, the value of gold is gradually decreasing. Fred Thiel, CEO of Marathon Digital, a mining company, suggested that this not only indicates a change in priorities in favour of digital assets but also demonstrates that bitcoin is becoming more accessible to a wider range of investors.

Euro Pacific Capital President Peter Schiff disagrees with these theses. According to this ardent gold supporter, most investors don't actually believe in bitcoin, but are only hoping that someone will buy it from them at a higher price. "The rapid fall in the price of the first cryptocurrency is just a matter of time. The peak we saw in 2021, around $70,000, is it. And ultimately bitcoin will explode," said Schiff, adding that stories about people losing money on cryptocurrency will eclipse stories about people getting rich on it.

According to renowned analyst Benjamin Cowen, the decline in fiat liquidity will primarily negatively impact not bitcoin, but altcoins. "Liquidity is drying up, so people see relative safety in bitcoin compared to the altcoin market," the specialist believes. "But that doesn't mean bitcoin can't fall; it just means it's a little safer."

According to Cowen's forecast, bitcoin could rise about 14% compared to current levels and reach a maximum of $35,000 in 2023. "In the short term, it's really hard to say if bitcoin can rise a little again. For myself, I set a target of $35,000," the analyst said.

The crypto trader known as Altcoin Sherpa is confident that the main cryptocurrency can first rise to $32,000 and then to a new 2023 high of $40,000. However, he's not so sure about the $40,000 mark. After that, there should be a significant correction downwards.

According to technical analysis, the BTC/USD cryptocurrency pair may be forming a new "bullish flag" pattern on the chart. This opinion was expressed by experts from Fairlead Strategies. They stated, "Bitcoin is digesting its gains during the consolidation phase. A potential new bullish flag is forming, which would occur with a breakthrough above the weekly Ichimoku cloud around $31,900."

The experts explained that this pattern consists of a pole and a flag. The pole represents the initial price rally, while the flag represents subsequent consolidation caused by "temporary exhaustion of bullish sentiment" and a lack of strong selling pressure. According to the theory of technical analysis, once the asset breaks above the flag's boundary price, it tends to rise by a distance approximately equal to the length of the pole.

In the case of bitcoin, the upward movement from the low on June 15, 2023, at $24,790 to the high on June 23 at $31,388 represents the pole, and the subsequent consolidation formed the flag. According to analysts, a potential breakthrough for BTC would allow the cryptocurrency's price to reach the next key resistance level at $35,900.

According to crypto strategist and trader Bluntz, who accurately identified the bottom of the bear market for bitcoin in 2018, he has now provided a forecast regarding ethereum. He believes that the leading altcoin is showing all the signs of a powerful rally that could take place in the coming months. According to the crypto strategist, the remaining part of 2023 could set ethereum up for parabolic growth, surpassing bitcoin significantly.

Bluntz is considered an experienced practitioner of technical analysis, particularly Elliott Wave Theory, which allows for price behaviour forecasting based on crowd psychology, often manifesting in waves. According to this theory, a bullish asset exhibits a five-wave rally, with the third wave signalling the steepest ascent. Bluntz suggests that ethereum is already in the early stages of the third wave surge, which could lead to ETH approaching $4,000 before the end of 2023.

In contrast, Altcoin Sherpa made an opposing forecast. Looking at ETH/BTC, he noted that ethereum is likely to decline in relation to the flagship cryptocurrency and aim for the lower end of the range around 0.053 BTC, or $1,614.

As of the time of writing the review, Friday evening, July 7, BTC/USD is trading around $30,200, and ETH/USD is in the range of $1,860. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization has decreased and stands at $1.176 trillion ($1.191 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains on the border between the Greed and Neutral zones, currently at 55 points (56 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 12, 2023, 12:04:32 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/4TBV7xK/Crypto-News-12-07-2023.jpg)

– As of the end of June, the primary cryptocurrency holdings belonging to Robert F. Kennedy Jr, the nephew of the 35th US president and a current electoral candidate, reached $250,000. This was revealed by a financial report discovered by CNBC. Kennedy's representatives confirmed that the funds are personally his.
Interestingly, during the Bitcoin-2023 conference, this presidential candidate called digital assets "a symbol of democracy and freedom," yet denied his investments in cryptocurrency. "I'm not an investor, and I'm not here to give investment advice," stated this electoral race participant at the time.

– Standard Chartered bank specialists predicted in April that bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of 2024. The figures from the July forecast look slightly higher. According to analysts, the price of bitcoin could exceed $50,000 this year, and by the end of next year, it might reach $120,000. "Increased miner profitability per mined BTC means they can sell less, preserving the inflow of funds, which reduces the net supply of the asset and leads to a price increase," explained Geoff Kendrick, the bank's analyst.

– The involvement of major investment firms in the race to launch spot bitcoin ETFs suggests that the leading cryptocurrency is no longer a "passing fad," stated Michael Sonnenshein, the CEO of Grayscale Investments. According to him, market participants are "responding positively to the inclusion of traditional financial institutions in bitcoin." "Recent news [...] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment opportunity," Sonnenshein added.

– Meta's new network Threads, often referred to as a Twitter clone, was launched on July 5. The user base of the new platform is approaching 100 million, largely due to Instagram users, though it is still far from matching Twitter's 450 million users.
It was previously reported that in the spring, eight popular cryptocurrency accounts on Twitter were hacked, resulting in the hackers acquiring nearly $1 million. It now seems that fraudsters have also turned their attention to the new network. Developers from the decentralized finance platform Wombex Finance reported the appearance of a counterfeit duplicate account on Threads, suggesting that extortionists may be operating there. Leonidas, one of the popular NFT bloggers, reported a similar case.

– Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of venture company Eight, believes that bitcoin is preparing for a surge to $41,000. The popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent rise in the price of the leading cryptocurrency and Fibonacci levels. According to him, "the previous annual high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher highs, as traders build upward momentum and positions." "To continue the upward trend that we call a bull cycle, bitcoin needs to reach a new and clearer high," explains Michael Van De Poppe. "There are several points that can help determine the potential for further growth using Fibonacci levels. And right now, I would say we're facing a rally up to $41,000."
"There are two scenarios - growth above the current high, followed by some consolidation and retracement before a new rise. Or consolidation at current levels, followed by accelerated growth over the next few months. For bitcoin, this is pretty standard behaviour. And then we'll move towards $41,000 or even $42,500," predicts the analyst.

– Robert Kiyosaki, an economist and the author of the well-known book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," has made another bold statement. He asserts that by 2024, bitcoin will reach a value of $120,000 per coin. Kiyosaki bases his forecast on the belief that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will soon adopt the gold standard and release their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This could undermine the dominance of the US dollar in the global economy and lead to its devaluation. He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption.
In light of this, Kiyosaki recommends protecting one's funds from inflation by purchasing physical and digital gold. He also believes that bitcoin is one of the best ways not only to preserve but also to increase capital amid the instability of the financial system.
(For reference: On July 11, the Russian Parliament passed a law establishing legal norms for the introduction of the digital rouble.)

– Markus Thielen, Head of Research at crypto financial service Matrixport, forecasts a similar figure, albeit not at the start but by the end of 2024. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotations of the premier cryptocurrency could exceed the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. "On June 22, bitcoin reached a new annual high. Historically, this signal indicated the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets," he explained.
According to Thielen, the price of bitcoin could skyrocket by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset's price would rise to $65,539 and $125,731 respectively. The expert's forecast is based on the average returns of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020. Thielen deliberately ignores the first case with a growth of 5,285% over 18 months, describing it as "epic" and "disproportional."

– Guy Turner, the host of the popular cryptocurrency channel Coin Bureau on YouTube, believes that in the medium term, there are two factors in favor of a massive growth of ethereum. The main one is the EIP-4844 update, which is expected to introduce a preliminary sharding (segmentation) mechanism for the network of the main altcoin. This update will be extremely important as it could, theoretically, give Ethereum the ability to scale on par with centralized systems.
The show host also noted that the issue of privacy remains very important. According to him, the developers of the second-largest cryptocurrency remain extremely concerned about this issue. "The huge focus on privacy and security is not surprising if you think about institutional investors. For them, it's a cornerstone," Turner highlighted. He recalled that Vitalik Buterin has raised this issue repeatedly, calling it "one of the three problems that need to be solved, otherwise ethereum will collapse.".

– Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino believes that a fall in the US dollar could lead to price increases for cryptocurrencies such as BTC, ETH, SOL, MATIC, XRP, Gala, and Render. In his opinion, the dollar is ready for a sharp devaluation. However, the expert does not consider an apocalyptic scenario of the collapse of the main global currency, since the dynamics of its exchange rate are slower than for other classes of financial assets.
Still, Pizzino predicts a steady downward trend for USD in the foreseeable period and a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets. The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and considering the correlation between USD and BTC, a decline in the former could contribute to an increase in the value of the latter, which would then be followed by an increase in the value of other crypto assets.

– Lightning Labs, a company specializing in software development, has unveiled its latest product: a plugin for ChatGPT that allows sending Bitcoin payments. Lightning Labs also presented a set of tools for developers that allow AI models like GPT to carry out bitcoin transactions on the Lightning Network. This step aims to bring AI technologies closer to the world of cryptocurrency, paves the way for new innovations, and promotes the development of this field.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 16, 2023, 12:34:01 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 17 - 21, 2023


EUR/USD: Falling Inflation Has Crushed the Dollar

So, we can either congratulate (or, conversely, upset) everyone with the onset of a global process of dedollarization. As Bloomberg reports, after the inflation rate in the US approached 3.0%, which is not far off the Federal Reserve's target of 2.0%, it seems like a turning point is approaching for the US economy.

Last week, the dollar faced the most significant pressure from national macroeconomic statistics in over a year. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Wednesday, July 12, showed a 0.2% increase in June, falling short of the forecasted 0.3%. The annual indicator dropped from 4.0% to 3.0%, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. Core inflation also fell from 5.3% in May to 4.8% in June, against a forecast of 5.0%.

Against the backdrop of such steady deceleration in inflation, market participants began to factor into the quotations both a refusal of the second Federal Reserve rate hike, as well as an imminent turnaround in monetary policy. According to CME Group FedWatch data, the likelihood that the regulator will raise the rate again after a 25-basis point hike in July has fallen from 33% to 20%. As a result, most financial instruments have made a successful onslaught on the dollar. Meanwhile, the market completely ignored statements by Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, his Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond colleague Thomas Barkin, and Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller that inflation is still above the target level and hence the Federal Reserve is ready to continue tightening its policy (QT).

The story of the dollar's decline did not end there. EUR/USD continued its rally after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday, July 13, that the Producer Price Index (PPI) had grown by just 0.1% in annual terms in June (forecast was 0.4%, May value was 0.9%). As a result, the DXY Dollar Index broke the 100.00 support level and fell to the values of April 2022, and EUR/USD reached its highest level since February 2022, marking a high at 1.1244.

Many market participants decided that the best times for the US currency are over. The US economy will slow down, inflation will reach target values, and the Federal Reserve will begin a campaign to soften its monetary policy. As a result, the second half of 2023 and 2024 will become a period of strengthening for other currencies against the dollar. The result of such expectations was the fall of the Spot USD Index to a 15-month low, and hedge funds exclusively engaged in selling the US currency for the first time since March.

After a crushing week for the dollar, EUR/USD finished at 1.1228. As for near-term prospects, at the time of writing this overview, on the evening of July 14, 30% of analysts voted for the pair's further growth, 55% for its decline, and the remaining 15% took a neutral stance. Among trend indicators and oscillators on D1, 100% are on the side of the greens, although a third of oscillators signal the pair is overbought.

The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.1200, then at 1.1170, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1045, 1.0995-1.1010, and 1.0895-1.0925. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.1245, 1.1290-1.1310, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

The blackout period leading up to the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is set for July 26, will begin on July 15. Therefore, it's not worth expecting any statements from Federal Reserve officials in the coming week. The quotations will only be influenced by the macroeconomic data hitting the market. On Tuesday, July 18, data on US retail sales will be released. On Wednesday, July 19, we will find out what is happening with inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone. Then on Thursday, July 20, data on unemployment, manufacturing activity, and the housing market in the United States will come in.

GBP/USD: The Potential for Growth Remains

Back at the end of June, we speculated that GBP/USD might cover the remaining distance to 1.3000 in just a few weeks or even days. And we were right. In the current situation, the British pound did not miss an opportunity for growth: the peak of the week was recorded at the height of 1.3141, which corresponds to the levels of the end of March - beginning of April 2022. The final note of the five-day period sounded at the mark of 1.3092.

In addition to a weakening dollar, another driver of the pound's growth was the semi-annual report on the assessment of the UK's financial system. It demonstrated the resilience of the national economy against the backdrop of a prolonged cycle of raising the key interest rate. Unlike several US banks, major UK banks maintain high capitalization, and their profits are growing. This suggests that they can withstand several more rate hikes this year. It is expected that at its next meeting on August 3, the Bank of England (BoE) will raise the rate by another 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%. And it will do so regardless of potential economic problems, as the fight against rising prices is more important. Consumer inflation (CPI) in the country in May was 8.7% (for comparison, over the same period in Germany it was 6.1%, in France 4.5%, in Japan 3.2%, and in the USA 4.0% in May and 3.0% in June).

The UK's labour market is also pushing inflation upwards. Even despite the increase in the interest rate, the latest report noted an acceleration in wage growth to 6.9% YoY. Excluding the turbulence during the Covid-19 pandemic, this is the fastest pace since 2001. And although unemployment is rising alongside wages, its current level of 4.0% is still historically low. Yes, in August of last year it was lower - 3.5%, but what is a growth of only 0.5% almost over a year? It's nothing! (Or almost nothing).

In general, in the foreseeable future, there are no major obstacles that would prevent the Bank of England from continuing to tighten monetary policy. Thus, the prospect of further rate hikes will continue to fill the sails of the British currency with a tailwind. And, according to a number of analysts, GBP/USD, having broken through the 1.3000 resistance, may now aim for an assault on the 1.3500 level.

However, this does not mean that such growth will happen right now. "In a sense, the pound has already experienced overvaluation against the backdrop of a hawkish Bank of England and is unlikely to show strong results against the current bearish phase of the dollar. However, traders will now be targeting 1.3300 on GBP/USD assuming we can close the week above 1.3000," believe strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING.

The possibility of the pound's consolidation in the coming week is also suggested by Canada's Scotiabank, not ruling out pullbacks to 1.2900-1.3000 and further growth to the area of 1.3300. The bullish sentiment is also supported by Singapore's United Overseas Bank. Its economists believe that "the strong growth momentum suggests that GBP/USD is unlikely to pull back. On the contrary, it is more likely to continue moving towards the upper boundary of the weekly exponential moving average. This key resistance level is currently at 1.3335."

When it comes to the median forecast for the near future, at the moment only 25% of experts have spoken out for further growth of the pair. The opposite position was taken by 50%, the remaining 25% maintained neutrality. As for technical analysis, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are pointing upwards, although a quarter of the latter are in the overbought zone. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones – 1.3050-1.3060, then 1.2980-1.3000, 1.2940, 1.2850-1.2875, 1.2740-1.2755, 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2570, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330. In the case of the pair's rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

The events of the upcoming week worth noting in the calendar are Wednesday, July 19, when the value of such an important inflation indicator as the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will become known. Towards the end of the working week, on Friday, July 21, data on retail sales in the country will also be published. These figures can have a significant impact on the exchange rate, as they provide insights into consumer spending and overall economic activity, which are key factors in the Bank of England's decisions on interest rates.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 16, 2023, 12:34:51 PM
USD/JPY: The Yen Pleased Investors Once Again

For the second week in a row, yen investors have been rewarded for their patience. USD/JPY continued its descent from the Moon to Earth, marking a local minimum at 137.23. Thus, since June 30th, in just two weeks, the Japanese currency has gained more than 780 points against the US dollar.

Compared to other currencies included in the DXY basket, the yen appears to be the primary beneficiary. The main ace up this safe-haven currency's sleeve is investor fears about a recession in the US and narrowing yield differentials on US government bonds. The correlation between Treasuries and USD/JPY is no secret to anyone. If the yield on US Treasury bills falls, the yen shows growth against the dollar. Last week, following the publication of CPI data, the yield on 10-year US papers slipped from 3.95% to 3.85%, and on 2-year papers – from 4.85% to 4.70%.

Speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may finally adjust its ultra-loose monetary policy towards tightening in the coming months also continues to favor the yen. We are talking about speculation here, as no clear signals have been given by the country's Government or the BoJ leadership on this matter.

Let's recall that at the French Societe Generale, it's expected that the yield on 5-year US bonds will fall to 2.66% in a year's time, which will allow USD/JPY to break below 130.00. If, at the same time, the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) remains at its current level, the pair could even drop to 125.00. Economists at Danske Bank are forecasting a USD/JPY rate below 130.00 within a 6–12-month horizon. Similar forecasts are made by strategists at BNP Paribas: they are aiming for a level of 130.00 by the end of this year and 123.00 by the end of 2024. Against this backdrop, many hedge funds have begun active selling of dollars and buying of yen.

Last week, USD/JPY ended at 138.75 after a correction to the north. As of this review, 45% of analysts believe the pair will resume growth in the coming days. Only 15% support further fall, and 40% maintain a wait-and-see stance. The D1 indicators are as follows: 100% of oscillators are coloured red, but 10% signal oversold. The balance between green and red among trend indicators is 35% to 60%. The nearest support level is in the 138.05-138.30 zone, followed by 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The closest resistance is 1.3895-1.3905, then 139.85, 140.45-140.60, 141.40-141.60, 142.20, 143.75-144.00, 145.15-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally the October 2022 high of 151.95.

No significant economic information related to the Japanese economy is expected in the upcoming week. However, traders may want to note that Monday, July 17th is a holiday in Japan: the country is observing Marine Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Karl Marx and $120,000 for BTC

(https://i.ibb.co/nMcCfNV/BTCUSD-17-07-2023.jpg)

After the release of impressive consumer inflation data in the US last week, the markets became confident in the Fed's imminent abandonment of monetary restriction and a turn towards lowering the key rate. The dollar responded to this with a sharp fall, and risky financial instruments - with growth. The S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite stock indices went up, but not bitcoin. The BTC/USD pair continued to move sideways along the Pivot Point $30,600, trapped in a narrow range. It seems as if it has completely forgotten about its direct correlation with stocks and its inverse correlation with the dollar. On Thursday, July 13, after the release of the American PPI, bitcoin still tried to break through to the north, but unsuccessfully: the very next day it returned within the limits of the sideways channel.

Why did this happen? What prevented digital gold from soaring along with the stock market? There don't seem to be any super serious reasons for this. Although analysts do point to three factors that are weighing on the crypto market.

The first of these is the low profitability of mining. Due to the increasing computational complexity, it remains close to a historical minimum. Moreover, it is accompanied by the fear of a possible new price drop. This is pushing miners to sell not only freshly mined coins (about 900 BTC per day), but also accumulated reserves. According to Bitcoinmagazine data, miners have transferred a record volume of coins to exchanges in the last six years.

In addition to miners, the US Government is contributing to the increase in supply. On just one day, July 12, it transferred $300 million worth of coins to crypto exchanges. And this is the second negative factor. Finally, the third is the bankrupt Mt.Gox exchange, which must pay customers everything that remains in its accounts by the end of October. This equates to approximately 135,900 BTC, totalling roughly $4.8 billion. Payments will be made in cryptocurrency, which will then be available on the market for sale and exchange for fiat.

Of course, all of this does not add positivity, increasing the supply but not the demand. However, considering that the average trading volume of bitcoin exceeds $12 billion daily, the figures mentioned do not seem that apocalyptic. In our view, the main reason for the current sideways trend is a balance between positives and negatives. The positives are the applications to launch spot btc-ETFs from such giants as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. The negatives are the increasing regulatory pressure on the crypto market by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

It should be noted that the SEC has previously rejected all applications for spot BTC-ETFs and is not currently eager to give them the green light. Therefore, the struggle for these funds could be drawn out over many months. For instance, a final decision on BlackRock's application is not expected until mid-Q3 2023 at the earliest, and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month before the next BTC halving. The halving could be the trigger for not only the subsequent, but also the preceding growth of BTC.

According to economists at Standard Chartered Bank, the price of bitcoin may exceed $50,000 this year, and it could reach $120,000 by the end of the next year. In the view of bank analyst Geoff Kendrick, as the price rises, miners will return to a strategy of accumulation. As already mentioned, they are currently selling everything they mine. However, when bitcoin is trading at $50,000, their sales will decrease from the current 900 coins to 180-270 per day. Such a decrease in supply should lead to further growth in the value of the asset. In general, everything is in line with Karl Marx's economic theory of supply and demand.

In addition to miners, institutional investors are also expected to show interest in accumulating bitcoins, in anticipation not only of the launch of spot BTC-ETFs and the halving, but also of a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and a weakening of the dollar. As Grayscale Investments CEO Michael Sonnenshein recently stated, it has become clear that the first cryptocurrency is no longer a "passing fad". "Recent news [...] underscores the resilience of this asset class in a broader sense, and many investors view [digital gold] as a unique investment opportunity."

Analyst and trader Michael Pizzino also believes that the dollar is ready to significantly depreciate. However, he does not consider an apocalyptic scenario of a collapse of the world's main currency, as the dynamics of its exchange rate are slower than those of other classes of financial assets. However, Pizzino predicts a steady downward trend in USD in the foreseeable period and a redistribution of funds in favor of digital assets. The macrographic chart suggests their upward trend, and given the correlation between USD and BTC, a fall in the former could contribute to an increase in the value of the latter, followed by growth in other significant crypto assets.

Robert Kiyosaki, author of the famous book "Rich Dad, Poor Dad", claims that by 2024, bitcoin will reach the $120,000 mark. The economist bases his forecast on the fact that BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) will soon move to the gold standard and issue their own cryptocurrency backed by gold. This could undermine the dominance of the U.S. dollar in the world economy and cause its devaluation. He also warns that many traditional financial institutions may go bankrupt in the near future due to their imprudent decisions and corruption. In this regard, Kiyosaki recommends protecting your money from inflation by buying physical gold and bitcoin.

A similar figure, only not at the beginning, but by the end of 2024, was named by the head of research at the crypto-financial service Matrixport, Markus Thielen. He stated in an interview with CoinDesk that the quotes of the first cryptocurrency could overcome the $125,000 mark by the end of next year. "On June 22, bitcoin reached a new annual high. This signal historically indicated the end of bearish and the beginning of bullish markets," he explained.

According to Thielen, the price of bitcoin can soar by 123% over 12 months and by 310% over a year and a half. With such growth, the asset will rise to $65,539 and $125,731, respectively. The expert's forecast is based on the average profitability of similar signals in the past: in August 2012, December 2015, May 2019, and August 2020. (Thielen intentionally ignores the first case with growth of 5,285% over 18 months, calling it "epic" and "disproportionate".).

As for a more short-term forecast, Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, believes that bitcoin is preparing for a leap to $41,000. The popular analyst bases his opinion on the recent growth of the first cryptocurrency rate and Fibonacci levels. According to him, "the previous annual high for BTC was overcome in April. And now we are seeing increasingly higher highs as traders build up bullish momentum and positions." "To continue the uptrend, which we call a bull cycle, bitcoin needs to reach a new and clearer high," explains Michael Van De Poppe. "There are several points that allow determining the possibilities of further growth using Fibonacci levels. And now I would say that there is a rally to $41,000 ahead."

"There are two scenarios: a rise above the current maximum, followed by some consolidation and a rollback before a new growth. Or consolidation at current levels, and then accelerated growth in the coming months. For bitcoin, this is pretty standard behaviour. And then we will go to $41,000 or even $42,500," the analyst predicts.

As of writing this review on the evening of Friday, July 14, BTC/USD is trading around $30,180. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has slightly increased and stands at $1.198 trillion ($1.176 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Greed zone and stands at 60 points (55 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 19, 2023, 07:23:04 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/MBGf5Dk/Crypto-News-19-07-2023.jpg)

– Mike Novogratz, the CEO of blockchain company Galaxy Digital, recommends buying bitcoin, pointing to the rising US national debt. In just the first week of July, the country's debt to creditors has increased by $1 trillion, reaching a total of $32.47 trillion. It is evident that this could destabilize the financial system, lead to another round of inflation, and result in a drop in the dollar's value. "This is madness... Buy bitcoin," Novogratz urged in response to a publication about the escalating debt of the United States.

– However, not everyone, like Mike Novogratz, foresees a bright future for BTC. According to the educational project 99bitcoins, bitcoin has been declared dead 474 times. The published "obituaries" spoke of the "insolvency and uselessness" of the primary cryptocurrency, asserting that the Bitcoin network is a "bubble," an "elaborate Ponzi scheme," and a "cryptocurrency dummy, with no real substantiated value."
Among the authors of these "posthumous messages" in 2023, there were quite a few well-known names in the financial world. These included Chamath Palihapitiya, the founder and CEO of venture company Social Capital; Robin Brooks, the chief economist of the Institute of International Finance (IIF); Harvey Jones from the British news agency Daily Express; Jamie Dimon, the CEO of JPMorgan Chase; TV host Jim Cramer; and John Reed Stark, a former official of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Vitalik Buterin has recently also criticized bitcoin. In the view of the creator of ethereum, the flagship cryptocurrency lacks scalable second-layer solutions to become more than just a payment network.

– Crypto market experts have drawn the results for Q2 2023. These three months proved to be turbulent, and the industry experienced a series of ups and downs. Most high-capitalization projects displayed negative dynamics during this period, primarily due to ongoing legal disputes between the SEC and major crypto exchanges Binance and Coinbase. This had a significant negative impact on many coins in the TOP-100, as the SEC classified them as securities.
However, amidst the turbulence, bitcoin, and some other digital currencies, such as BCH and LTC, demonstrated high performance. According to the CryptoRank report, their success was driven by news related to exchange-traded funds and institutional listings. Bitcoin, in particular, delivered an impressive return that outperformed traditional financial instruments, overshadowing the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes, as well as gold and silver, in the first half of 2023.
Undoubtedly, one of the most significant events was the application for a spot bitcoin ETF by BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager. This event particularly benefited BTC, which reached a new high for 2023. BlackRock's initiative started a chain of events where numerous asset managers also began either renewing or submitting new applications for spot bitcoin ETFs. It is important to note that the SEC has previously rejected all such applications. In this case, a final decision on BlackRock's application is expected no earlier than the middle of Q3 2023 and no later than mid-March 2024, just a month before the next BTC halving.

– The crypto market traditionally experiences a lull during the summer. Admittedly, trading volumes increased in June thanks to spot bitcoin ETF applications from BlackRock and other companies, but overall, Q2 witnessed a decrease in trading activity. According to CryptoRank, crypto exchanges recorded a decline in trading volume in Q2, reaching the lowest level in the last two years.

– The bitcoin halving in 2024 is tentatively set to take place on April 12. It has the potential to exert a fundamental influence on both the price of BTC and the overall cryptocurrency market, as it is a crucial mechanism in the primary cryptocurrency's protocol. Every 210,000 blocks, or once every four years, it halves the reward that miners receive for mining a block. This is done to create a deflationary environment and to support the value of BTC by reducing the rate of new coin issuance. (The total emission size is set at 21 million coins.)
Originally, from 2009, miners received 50 BTC for each generated block. In 2012, the reward decreased to 25 BTC, in 2016 – to 12.5 BTC, and after 2020 – to 6.25 BTC. When the 2024 halving occurs, the mining reward will be reduced to 3.125 coins.
Historical data suggest that after this event, the bitcoin exchange rate may once again sharply increase. After the 2012 halving, the BTC price rose from $11 in November 2012 to $1,100 in November 2013. Following the 2016 halving, the price increased from $640 in July to $20,000 in December 2017. The 2020 halving enabled the coin's price to rise from $9,000 in May 2020 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021. However, despite this statistic, experts warn that past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future.

– After the 2024 halving and the halving of the reward for a mined block, miners will have to adapt to a new reality. They will need to acquire more powerful and energy-efficient equipment or upgrade their existing ones. According to forecasts, many small companies will most likely leave the market or be acquired by larger players. As a result, we should expect the mining market to become centralized, falling under the control of a few large pools. This would make the network more susceptible to manipulations and hacking attacks. However, a sharp increase in the price of bitcoin could at least partially offset these negative factors.

– Analysts asked ChatGPT to talk about some potential events that could have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market. The Artificial Intelligence's response was as follows:
1. Regulation: Legislative or regulatory changes in key countries can greatly affect the cryptocurrency market. If important jurisdictions adopt laws that severely limit the use or trade of cryptocurrencies, it could strongly affect their prices and accessibility.
2. Large-scale hacking attacks: If large-scale hacking attacks occur on major cryptocurrency exchanges or wallets, it could cause panic in the market and lead to significant losses.
3.Technological breakthroughs: New technologies or improvements in blockchain and cryptocurrencies can also have a significant impact. This can include new consensus protocols, improved scalability, or enhanced privacy protection methods.
4. Large companies' investments: If major companies like Apple, Google, or Amazon start actively investing in cryptocurrencies or integrating them into their services, it could significantly increase the value of cryptocurrencies and overall interest in them.
5. Global economic events: Cryptocurrencies are often considered a "safe haven" during economic instability. So global economic crises or significant changes in inflation, interest rates, or currency exchange rates could also influence the crypto market.

– The former CEO of BitMEX cryptocurrency exchange, Arthur Hayes, has speculated that bitcoin might become the ideal currency for artificial intelligence (AI) systems. In his opinion, digital gold is superior to other assets in this respect, as it possesses characteristics such as decentralization, resistance to censorship, proven deficit, and dependence of intrinsic value on energy costs. "There is nothing today that can compare to bitcoin in these parameters," wrote Hayes.
He believes that in the future, investors may reevaluate the first cryptocurrency due to its "adoption" by artificial intelligence. According to Hayes, this will occur due to a desire to "avoid inflation in the fiat financial system" and to "capture part of the next phase of human and computer evolution." The former CEO of BitMEX added that by 2025-2026, the AI economy will account for up to 50% of global GDP, against which backdrop bitcoin will reach $760,000.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 22, 2023, 04:23:15 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 24 - 28, 2023


EUR/USD: Awaiting the Federal Reserve and ECB Meetings

When the DXY Dollar Index dropped to April 2022 levels (99.65) on July 14, many market participants concluded that the best days for the American currency were over. Inflation is nearing target levels, and in order not to suffocate the economy, the Federal Reserve will soon initiate a campaign to ease its monetary policy. However, things aren't that straightforward. After reaching a peak of 1.1275 on Tuesday, July 18, the EUR/USD pair reversed and started to decline.

In general, against the backdrop of weak macroeconomic reports coming from the United States, the dollar could have given up a few dozen or even a couple of hundred points to the euro. Industrial production in the country is falling for the second month in a row, with a 0.5% decrease in June. Retail sales, expected to grow by 0.5%, only increased by 0.2% (a 0.5% increase in May). The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Activity Index continues to be in the negative territory (-13.5). The real estate market data also turned out worse than predicted. For instance, the number of new constructions in the U.S. fell by 8.0% in June, following a 15.7% increase in the previous month. The number of issued construction permits also dropped by 3.7% after a 5.6% rise in May. Sales in the secondary housing market were below the previous values (4.16M in June, 4.30M in May, forecast 4.20M). However, the labour market data turned out slightly better than expected - the number of initial jobless claims was 228K (previous value 237K, forecast 242K). Yet, this is a highly volatile indicator, and it may not reflect the actual situation, but the market was pleased with this bit of positivity.

Overall, the published macro-statistics vividly illustrate the cooling of the American economy. The worsening situation in the real estate market clearly signals the pressure that high-interest rates exert on this important sector. It's enough to recall the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2008, which began with a mortgage crisis in the U.S.

In such a situation, the hawkish course of the Federal Reserve is likely nearing its end. Almost all Bloomberg experts anticipate that on July 26, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise the interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.5%. There's a possibility that the hike could be even less: not 25, but just 10 basis points. Afterwards, the regulator is expected to take a wait-and-see approach, which could last until the end of the year. The futures market estimates the probability of a rate increase to 5.75% in 2023 at 28%.

However, there's not just the American currency on the EUR/USD scale but also the pan-European one. Revised statistics show that in Q1, the Eurozone's GDP was almost at zero, the economy is stagnating, and its growth prospects appear rather weak. It is clear that the hike in the euro's key interest rate, which has grown from 0% to 4.00% in this tightening cycle, has had and continues to have a negative impact. The lagging effect of monetary tightening is becoming more and more palpable.

On the other hand, despite a 400 basis point increase in rates, inflation (CPI) in the Eurozone is declining quite slowly - in June, it was 5.5% year-on-year compared to 6.1% a month earlier. It is still very far from its target level of 2.0%.

Therefore, on one hand, we see significant price pressure, on the other – the difficulties the EU economy is experiencing. In such an ambiguous situation, the further steps of the European Central Bank officials also seem uncertain. More clarity regarding future monetary policy is expected to emerge at the upcoming European Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, July 27. At least, that's what market participants are hoping for.

Even somewhat unclear data from the US labour market was enough to trigger a DXY correction northwards and send EUR/USD south. The final note of the working week was set at 1.1125. As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review, the evening of July 21, only 20% of analysts voted for the pair's further rise, 50% for its fall, and the remaining 30% took a neutral stance. As for technical analysis, on D1, 75% of trend indicators point up, 25% point down. Of the oscillators, 85% recommend buying, while the remaining 15% take a neutral stance. The pair's nearest support is located around 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1045, 1.0995-1.1010, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0800, 1.0760, 1.0670, 1.0620-1.0635. Bulls will meet resistance around 1.1145, then 1.1170, 1.1230-1.1245, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

Undoubtedly, the key events of the upcoming week will be the FED meeting on July 26 and the ECB meeting on July 27, along with the subsequent press conferences held by the leaders of these regulators. Additionally, on Monday, July 24, numerous preliminary business activity data (PMI) will come from Germany, the Eurozone, and the US. The next day, the Eurozone Bank Lending Survey will be published, and the value of the US Consumer Confidence Index will be known. On Thursday, data on durable goods orders will arrive from the United States, along with real estate and unemployment statistics. Finally, at the very end of the working week, on Friday, July 28, we will learn the preliminary data on inflation (CPI) in Germany, as well as personal consumption expenditure data in the US.

GBP/USD: 50 Basis Points or is it 25 After All?

The next meeting of the Bank of England (BoE) is set for August 3. Some market participants are inclined to believe that at this meeting, the regulator will raise the base rate for the pound by another 50 basis points (bps) to 5.50%. Economists from the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale have formulated three main reasons why the BoE will take this step.

Firstly, inflation in the service sector and wages may have peaked in June, but both indicators remain uncomfortably high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), although it fell over the month from 8.7% to 7.9% (with a forecast of 8.2%), is still far from the target level of 2.0%.

Secondly, as Societe Generale believes, investors are avoiding UK bonds due to persistent inflation in the country. Such high and stable inflation means that investors require higher compensation for holding UK bonds compared to US Treasuries and German bonds. To reassure investors, it is necessary at this stage to continue a strict monetary policy.

Thirdly, in recent weeks the Bank of England and its governor Andrew Bailey have been heavily criticized for sticking to a soft monetary course for too long, thereby allowing a powerful surge in inflation. And now the BoE may overdo it in its desire to prove that its critics are wrong. This can lead to more aggressive actions, such as a significant rate hike. However, we must also consider the possibility that the BoE could choose a more conservative 25 basis point rate hike instead.

Indeed, not everyone agrees with the arguments put forth by the French economists. For instance, their colleagues at the German Commerzbank have noted that consumer prices (CPI) in the UK grew at a much slower rate in June than was expected. Therefore, the market's built-in expectations for a rate increase are too high and require a downward correction. This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the pound. A similar viewpoint was expressed by strategists at the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING, who believe the rate will be increased by a maximum of 25 basis points.

The above-mentioned CPI data was published on Wednesday, July 19. However, in addition to this, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in the UK also published retail trade data for the country on Friday, July 21. It turned out that in June, the volume of retail trade increased by 0.7% on a monthly basis, compared to the expected 0.2% and 0.1% previously. The main indicator of retail sales, excluding auto fuel sales, increased by 0.8% over the month compared to the forecasted 0.1% and 0% in May. The annual volume of retail sales in the UK fell by -1.0% in June against the forecasted -1.5% and May's decline of -2.3%, while the base volume of retail sales dropped by -0.9% against the expected -1.6% and the previous -1.9%.

After the release of these favorable data, the UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt stated that "we will start seeing results if we stick to our plan to halve inflation". The minister's words could be interpreted as support for further tightening of the BoE's hawkish policy. However, the markets practically ignored them, and the strengthening dollar continued to pressure GBP/USD, which ended the five-day trading period at the 1.2852 mark.

As for the pair's movement, it will, of course, depend on the decisions and statements of the Fed on July 26. Undoubtedly, the ECB's meeting on July 27 will also influence the pound through EUR/GBP. But all this is in the near future. As for the present, at the time of writing this review, the median forecast of experts for GBP/USD looks maximally neutral: a third of them voted for the pair's growth, a third - for its fall, and a third maintained neutrality. On D1 oscillators, 35% are coloured green, 25% - red, and the remaining 40% - neutral grey. Among trend indicators, 60% sided with the green, and 40% sided with the red. In case of the pair's movement south, it will meet support levels and zones at 1.2800-1.2815, then 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2570, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at 1.2940, then 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

Apart from the FED and ECB meetings, another notable event in the upcoming week's calendar is on Monday, July 24, when the preliminary business activity data (PMI) for various sectors of the UK economy will be published.

USD/JPY: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back

(https://i.ibb.co/SRxzVGh/USDJPY-24-07-2023.jpg)

The Russian revolutionary Vladimir Lenin wrote a book in 1904 titled "One Step Forward, Two Steps Back". What happened to the yen over the past three weeks can be titled as "Two Steps Forward, One Step Back". For the first two weeks of July, the Japanese currency grew, and for the third, it gave back more than half of its gains. And while its peers - the euro and pound, retreated thanks to a stronger dollar, in the case of USD/JPY, a significant blow to the national currency was not dealt by the US, but by a fall in inflation in Japan.

It should be recalled that at the time of writing the previous forecast, the number of supporters of yen weakening was three times the number of those expecting its further strengthening (45% versus 15%). And the majority turned out to be correct. The Inflation Report published on Friday, July 21st, sent the Japanese currency into a knockdown. USD/JPY jumped by more than 1%. It turned out that despite the ultra-dovish policy of the BoJ and a negative interest rate of -0.1%, consumer price growth has decreased. Despite a forecast of 3.5%, in reality, inflation (CPI) in June was 3.3%. The consumer price index excluding food and energy fell to 4.2% compared to the previous value of 4.3%.

These data, if not completely, then at least for a long time, buried hopes for a tightening of the monetary policy of the Japanese Central Bank. Moreover, the Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who spoke the day before, supported the current monetary policy of the regulator. Therefore, with a high degree of probability, at its meeting on Friday, July 28, the Bank of Japan will leave the interest rate unchanged. And to maintain the course of the national currency, if necessary, as before, it will resort to currency interventions.

In the meantime, to stop the yen's fall, Japan's Chief Currency Diplomat Masato Kanda stepped in with a "verbal intervention". In particular, he stated that he "never felt a limit to the possibilities for currency interventions" and that when it comes to them, he takes various steps to avoid running out of "ammunition".

The situation has somewhat calmed down after the comments made by Masato Kanda, with USD/JPY ending the past week at a mark of 141.80. At the time of writing this review, 25% of analysts predict the pair will continue its upward movement in the upcoming days, 55% voted for a downward trend, and 20% took a neutral position. The readings of the D1 indicators are as follows: among the oscillators, 25% are coloured red, 50% green, and 25% grey. Trend indicators show a clear advantage for the greens at 90%, with only 10% on the opposite side. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 141.40, followed by 140.45-140.60, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, then 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The nearest resistance is at 142.20, followed by 143.75-144.00, 145.05-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally the peak of October 2022 at 151.95.

Besides the Bank of Japan's meeting, no significant economic information pertaining to the country's economy is anticipated in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Litecoin Halving - Rehearsal for Bitcoin Halving

Observers note that the peak of the Dollar Index DXY in 2023 almost coincided with bitcoin's trough. There's nothing surprising about this: BTC/USD is like a scale. If the dollar gets heavier, bitcoin becomes lighter. Last week, the rise of the American currency led to a weakening of the digital one. It's worth noting that bitcoin is desperately trying to hold onto the support zone at $29,850 and avoid a collapse to the June lows around $25,000.

The relationship between BTC and USD is logical and understandable. However, some crypto enthusiasts are trying to position bitcoin as the primary, leading asset, with the dollar trailing behind like a dog's tail. As an argument, they cite, for example, the fact that bitcoin entered a horizontal channel by the middle of last year, while the Dollar Index caught up with it a few weeks later. If you look closely, you can find many such moments on the charts. But in our opinion, one should not overestimate the significance of the main cryptocurrency.

At the moment, many experts and influencers continue to paint a bright future for bitcoin. Although the heights of target horizons differ by times, sometimes even by tens of times. For example, Standard Chartered economist Geoff Kendrick recently stated that his financial corporation has adopted a more optimistic forecast for bitcoin's market value, targeting the $120,000 level by the end of 2024.

In response, BBC World analyst Glen Goodman wrote that these $120,000 "seem more like a figure pulled out of thin air than a genuinely justified forecast." He believes that the authors of such predictions are siding with the bulls and are not considering a number of key factors. The most important of them is that the US financial regulators are ruthlessly cracking down on the crypto industry, inundating its participants with lawsuits and investigations. Moreover, Goodman refers to forecasts by American economists who expect a protracted recession next year, the consequences of which can seriously suppress activity in the financial markets, including the digital asset market.

Unlike Glen Goodman, Real Vision CEO and former Goldman Sachs top manager Raoul Pal believes that economic troubles, confusion in the banking sector, and the real estate market crisis are beneficial for bitcoin, which serves as a defensive asset against this backdrop. According to Raoul Pal, a bullish rally for digital gold is inevitable, and BTC can easily reach the $50,000 mark later this year.

Renowned analyst under the nickname PlanB, on the other hand, does not believe that a powerful pump of the flagship cryptocurrency can occur before the halving in April 2024. His forecast is based on using the MA-200 as an indicator. This line increases on average by $500 a month, so in nine months it will be at the $32,000 mark. According to PlanB, it is possible that the coin's price might even be about 50% above this mark, but even then, it would be only $48,000.

Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of venture firm Eight, has clarified his prediction from last week. He believes that the current trend is breaking the minimums, as a result of which bitcoin could drop to $29,500 and even $29,000. However, he thinks that such a price movement could precede a bullish rally, during which the main cryptocurrency will raise its rate first to $32,500, then to $34,000, followed by a surge to $38,000.

Shifting from short- and medium-term forecasts to long-term, one could mention the opinion of Catherine Wood, CEO of ARK Invest. It seems that she is not particularly interested in jumps to $38,000 and even to $120,000. Once again, she reaffirmed her forecast that in about seven years, against the backdrop of inflation and a banking crisis, bitcoin will trade at $1,500,000 per coin, or at least at $625,000.

Against the backdrop of Catherine Wood's boundless optimism, data from CryptoVantage, whose employees surveyed 1,000 crypto investors from the U.S., comes as a cold sobering shower. It turned out that only 23% of them believe that the Bitcoin rate will reach its historical maximum of $68,917 next year. 47% think that the coin's price will rise to this mark within five years. 78% are confident that BTC will eventually return to its all-time high, but in an uncertain future. And 9% believe that this will never happen again.

We've paid significant attention to the upcoming bitcoin halving in April 2023 in our previous reviews. Let's now remember that the Litecoin halving is due quite soon, on August 2nd of this year. The reward for mining a block will be reduced to 6.25 LTC. Given that Litecoin is a fork of bitcoin, and its total emission is capped at 84 million coins, it will be interesting to observe the changes in Litecoin's price and attempt to forecast bitcoin's performance after its future halving based on these observations.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, July 21, BTC/USD is trading around $29,850. The total capitalization of the crypto market has barely changed and stands at $1.202 trillion ($1.198 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is in the Neutral zone, at 50 points (down from 60 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 26, 2023, 06:32:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/Z1T7Fhm/Crypto-News-26-07-2023.jpg)

– Robert Kennedy Jr., a U.S. presidential candidate from the Democratic Party, advocates for the support of the U.S. dollar using hard assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and bitcoin. The politician believes that this move could stabilize the economy, curb inflation, and usher in a new era of financial stability and prosperity in America.
Market strategist Todd "Bubba" Horwitz responded to Robert Kennedy Jr.'s inclusion of bitcoin in the basket of hard assets. According to him, this will enable bitcoin to reach a price of $35,000, and then $40,000, within the next six months. Horwitz highly praised the growing recognition of BTC by regulatory bodies such as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which will also contribute to the growth of the leading cryptocurrency.

– The implementation of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) worldwide varies significantly: projects are divided into retail ones, intended for citizen use, and so-called wholesale ones, geared towards interbank transfers and large businesses. Currently, 125 central banks are working on launching national CBDCs, but only three countries, Nigeria, the Bahamas, and Jamaica, have already put their CBDCs into full operation. Meanwhile, Ecuador and Haiti have abandoned this idea due to the high cost of the projects and low demand from the population. Ecuador launched its project as early as 2014 but withdrew it as the number of users did not exceed 3% of the country's population.
Even a number of senators resist the development of a digital dollar in the U.S. In a pre-emptive move, the governors of Texas and Miami banned its circulation within their states in May of this year.

– Bloomberg Senior Analyst Eric Balchunas believes that the approval of applications to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. will open up the bitcoin market to $30 trillion in capital. According to forecasts by analytics firm Fundstrat, the launch of a bitcoin ETF could increase daily demand for bitcoin by $100 million. In this case, even before the halving scheduled for April 2024, the price of BTC could rise by 521% from current levels and reach up to $180,000.

– Craig Steven Wright, an Australian computer scientist and businessman, has claimed since 2016 that he invented bitcoin. He filed a lawsuit against 13 BTC developers and several crypto companies, including Blockstream, Coinbase, and Block, alleging they infringe his copyright to the first cryptocurrency.
However, Wright lost the copyright lawsuit in February. The court deemed his arguments insufficient. Now, a UK court has satisfied an appeal that has granted Wright the right to claim copyright over bitcoin.
Whether Wright truly created bitcoin and hid under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto will be determined by the court during a trial in January 2024. "Copyright protection issues will be resolved during a full court hearing, but only if Dr. Wright demonstrates that he is Satoshi Nakamoto," the court statement said. Meanwhile, Wright's lawyers stated that he is "pleased" with the outcome of the case and acknowledged his high chances of winning.

– Experts at SlowMist reported the discovery of a phishing program in the App Store aimed at stealing user data and cryptocurrencies. It mimics legitimate applications and thereby ends up on the user's device. The victim is then asked to enter their Apple ID password. Once they have this information, the malicious actors add their phone numbers to the trusted list for Apple's two-factor authentication. This allows them to control account permissions and gain full access to its contents. To mask their activity, the hackers create additional Apple IDs and use the victim's resources through the family account access feature.

– Just like on traditional markets, changes in investor sentiment on the crypto market follow certain patterns. Considering the so-called "Wall Street Cheat Sheet," which describes the psychology of market cycles and the corresponding emotions of traders, after passing through the pessimistic phases of "panic," "capitulation," and "depression," bitcoin is moving towards the "hope" stage.
According to analyst CryptoYoddha's chart, the cryptocurrency is currently going through the "disbelief" or "sucker's rally" stage. The next step is the "hope" of price recovery, potentially to $50,000 and above by the end of 2023. The upward movement will correspond to the passage through the stages of "optimism," "belief," "thrill," and finally, "euphoria."

– An analyst known as Trader Tardigrade believes that bitcoin is replicating the same price structure as it did in the period from 2013 to 2018, when it followed the pattern of transitioning from the "previous peak" to the "top-1", which preceded "top-2" and the "retest" (the stage at which bitcoin currently stands). If this model holds true, the next step would be a price "boom" which could lead to bitcoin rising to $400,000 by 2026.

– According to another expert, Stockmoney Lizards, bitcoin has just emerged from its third historical cycle, during which it reached an all-time high of $68,900, and has entered its fourth price cycle. The culmination of this cycle could be a new record between $150,000 and $200,000 in Q2 or Q3 of 2025.

– Cody Buffington, the host of the Altcoin Buzz YouTube channel, holds the view that a surge in bitcoin's volatility will occur sooner than everyone anticipates. According to him, the upcoming volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency could rival its growth since January 2023.
Buffington noted that in July, the price of bitcoin oscillated in a narrow range around the $30,000 mark, which served as a kind of test for both bulls and bears. And more often than not, such flat trading occurs before major movements. As proof, he pointed to the Bollinger Bands and a visual display of the indicator, which shows that the bitcoin price chart is in its narrowest state since the start of 2023.

– Ripple recently released a review examining the impact of the cryptocurrency and blockchain industry on business and the financial sector. According to the document, more than 90% of global financial leaders believe that blockchain technology will significantly influence business and finance over the next three years, indicating a substantial increase in their confidence in virtual currencies. 79% of business leaders expressed interest and confidence in using cryptocurrencies in their business. When considering various areas of cryptocurrency application, 44% of financiers chose their use for cross-border payments. Moreover, over 76% of company leaders are interested in institutional DeFi as a strategy for implementing innovations.

– According to a survey of 29 analysts conducted by Finder.com, their median forecast is as follows. Experts expect that by the end of the year, BTC will rise to $38,488, while the potential peak of bitcoin in 2023 could reach $42,000. By the end of 2025, according to the averaged opinion of analysts, the coin's price could reach $100,000, and by the end of 2030 - $280,000.
Naturally, individual forecasts of experts varied. Overall, the majority of survey participants (59%) are optimistic about BTC and believe that now is a good time to enter the market, 34% simply advise holding the existing cryptocurrency, and 7% suggest selling it.

– At present, there is a certain hype around the artificial intelligence industry. Experts from the publication Finbold decided to ask Google Bard, a machine learning system, how much the flagship of the crypto market will cost after the long-awaited halving in 2024.
The AI noted that several factors could influence this, but bitcoin is very likely to reach a new all-time high. This will be facilitated not only by halving, but also by a more global implementation of BTC, as well as interest from institutional investors. Speaking of specific figures, Google Bard noted that after the halving, the coin could on a sharp impulse reach the $100,000 mark. On the other hand, Google Bard highlighted factors that could limit the growth of bitcoin. The AI also did not rule out the possibility that the crypto winter may continue in 2024.

– Sam Altman, founder and CEO of OpenAI, which created the popular AI chatbot ChatGPT, has launched his own cryptocurrency, Worldcoin, based on a blockchain system that uses eye recognition for user authentication and distinguishes between humans and bots. On July 24, the Binance cryptocurrency exchange listed the Worldcoin (WLD) token and preliminary trading began in the newly added spot pairs WLD/BTC and WLD/USDT.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 30, 2023, 11:53:10 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 31 - August 04, 2023


EUR/USD: From Hawks to Not-Yet Doves

The past week was filled with both events and the release of macroeconomic data. Regarding the Federal Reserve meeting on July 26 and the European Central Bank meeting on July 27, there were no surprises in terms of key interest rate hikes. In both cases, they were predictably increased by 25 basis points (bps): to 5.50% for the dollar and to 4.25% for the euro. Therefore, market participants' attention was drawn to the statements made by the heads of these regulators following the meetings.

Jerome Powell, the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, announced during the press conference on July 26 that the US central bank's monetary policy has now become restrictive. As is usual, he deflected a direct answer on whether there will be an additional rate hike within this year. He didn't rule out the prospect of a further surge in the cost of federal fund borrowings but neither did he confirm it, even though it has already touched a 22-year peak.

It became apparent from Powell's remarks that the Federal Reserve no longer anticipates a recession. Instead, the central bank's policy will aim for a 'soft landing' – a state of moderate economic expansion coupled with a continued deceleration in inflation. This upbeat forecast for the stock market prompted further growth in the S&P500 and Dow Jones indices, whereas the yields on US Treasury bonds and the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped. Amidst this backdrop, the EUR/USD pair recorded its weekly high at 1.1149.

Everything changed radically the next day, on Thursday, July 27. Almost simultaneously, with a 15-minute interval, the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates and preliminary US GDP data were announced. 15 minutes later, a press conference led by the head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, began.

The US economy, against a forecast of 1.8%, expanded by 2.4% in Q2, substantiating Powell's statements and removing the topic of recession from the current agenda. Against this backdrop, the Eurozone economy is clearly lagging behind (for instance, German GDP, after a drop of -0.3% in Q1, contracted further by -0.2% in Q2). The ECB's head lamented this weakness in her address. If a month ago it was said that the European regulator would bring rates to levels that would be sufficiently restrictive, on July 27 everything sounded different. It was now stated that the Governing Council of the Central Bank would maintain restrictive borrowing costs for as long as necessary. In other words, they would at least take a pause, or even cease further tightening of their policy.

Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the Bank's Governing Council, confirmed this, stating that the "economy is weaker in the short term than forecasted" and monetary authorities are "near the peak of rates or at it". As a result of these statements, the probability of a rate hike in September dropped below 50%, and EUR/USD plummeted. The pair bottomed for the week at the mark of 1.0943.

Towards the end of the work week, on Friday, July 28, the pair corrected into the 1.1000 zone. Following the publication of preliminary inflation (CPI) data in Germany and personal consumption expenditure data in the US, EUR/USD closed the five-day period at 1.1016.

As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of July 28, 30% of analysts voted for further growth of the pair, 55% foresaw a decline, and the remaining 15% held a neutral position. Among trend indicators on D1, 50% point upwards, 50% downwards. The oscillators present a more specific picture: only 15% recommend buying, 65% selling, and the remaining 20% are neutral. The nearest support for the pair is around 1.0985, followed by 1.0945-1.0955, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0620-1.0635. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.1045, then 1.1085-1.1110, 1.1145, 1.1170, 1.1230-1.1245, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

In the coming week, on Monday, July 31, we await data on retail sales in Germany and a whole raft of preliminary statistics for the Eurozone, including GDP and inflation (CPI) data. On Tuesday, business activity indicators (PMI) in Germany and the US will be revealed. The following day, August 2, we will receive data on the level of employment in the private sector of the United States. The labour market statistics will be supplemented on August 3 and 4, when we will learn the number of unemployment benefit claims and such important indicators as wage level, unemployment rate, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) of the country.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Bank of England's Meeting

The preliminary data released on Monday, July 24, showed a decline in business activity in the UK. According to the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply (CIPS), the PMI in the manufacturing sector, which was forecasted at 46.1, actually fell from 46.5 to 45.0 points. The PMI in the service sector and the composite PMI, although they remained above 50, also showed a decline: from 53.7 to 51.5 and from 52.8 to 50.7 points, respectively.

The Bank of England (BoE) meeting will take place on Thursday, August 3, and the market has yet to come to a consistent opinion on how much the regulator will raise the base rate for the pound under current conditions. Will it be 50 basis points or, like the Fed and ECB, 25? We've previously mentioned arguments in favor of both numbers. We'll just repeat some of them.

Three main reasons for the BoE to decide on a 50 basis point increase were formulated by economists of the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale.

Firstly, service sector inflation and wages may have peaked in June, but both indicators remain uncomfortably high. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), although it decreased from 8.7% to 7.9% (forecasted at 8.2%) over the month, is still far from the target level of 2.0%.

Secondly, as Societe Generale believes, investors are avoiding British bonds due to the persistent inflation in the country. Such high and steady inflation means that investors require higher compensation for holding British bonds compared to US Treasuries and German bonds. To reassure investors, it is necessary at this stage to continue a tight monetary policy.

Thirdly, in recent weeks the Bank of England and its governor, Andrew Bailey, have been subjected to extensive criticism for maintaining a soft monetary policy for too long, thereby allowing inflation to rise significantly. Now the BoE may overdo it in an effort to prove its critics wrong.

However, not everyone agrees with the arguments of the French economists. For example, their colleagues from the German Commerzbank note that consumer prices (CPI) in the UK grew much slower in June than expected. Therefore, market expectations for a rate hike are too high and need to be adjusted downwards. This, in turn, will lead to a weakening of the pound. A similar view was expressed by strategists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, who believe that the rate will be increased by a maximum of 25 basis points.

It can be seen on the long-term chart that the British currency has recovered more than three-quarters after a sharp fall in the second half of 2021 and in 2022. And according to economists at Scotiabank, the pound is "likely to continue to receive support from positive yield spreads, even though a very tight monetary policy will threaten the prospects for UK economic growth next year." Scotiabank predicts that the pound will reach 1.3500 by the end of 2023 and 1.4000 by the end of 2024.

As for the current situation, the GBP/USD dynamics last week were similar to how EUR/USD moved - both pairs reacted to the results of the Fed and ECB meetings, to the statements of their leaders, and to macroeconomic statistics from the US. As a result, the week's maximum was recorded on July 27 at the height of 1.2995, the minimum - the next day at the level of 1.2762, and the final chord sounded at the mark of 1.2850.

The median forecast for GBP/USD in the near term tends to be bearish, with 70% supporting this view and the remaining 30% taking the opposite position. On the D1 oscillators, 15% are coloured green, 25% neutral-grey, and 60% red. For trend indicators, as in the case of EUR/USD, the ratio between green and red is 50% to 50%. If the pair moves south, it is expected to meet support levels and zones - 1.2800-1.2815, then 1.2740-1.2760, 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330. 1.2190-1.2210. In case of pair growth, it will encounter resistance at levels 1.2880, then 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

In the calendar for the upcoming week, in addition to the Bank of England meeting and the subsequent press conference of its management, Tuesday, August 1 can be noted when the final data on business activity (PMI) in the manufacturing sector of the UK economy will be published.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on July 30, 2023, 12:00:26 PM
USD/JPY: BoJ Delivers a Surprise

The second half of the past week turned out to be not just volatile, but insanely volatile for USD/JPY. Jumps of 100, 200, and even 300 points followed one after another. Not only did the yen react sharply to the meetings of the Fed and the ECB, but also its own Bank of Japan (BoJ) delivered a surprise. The fire was started by the Nikkei newspaper, which published an insider that the BoJ intends, on the one hand, to maintain control over the bond yield curve in the same range, but on the other hand - to allow the rates of the debt market to go beyond its limits.

The results of the regulator's meeting fully confirmed the journalists' information. As expected, the Japanese Central Bank kept the key rate at an ultra-low negative level of -0.1%. However, for the first time in many years, the new head of the bank, Kazuo Ueda, decided to turn strict targeting of the yield curve into flexible one. For some central banks, this is a common practice. But for the BoJ, it's a desperately bold, revolutionary step.

The target yield level of Japanese 10-year bonds remains 0%. The permissible range of yield changes of +/-0.5% is also maintained. But from now on, this limit should no longer be seen as a hard boundary but is more flexible. True, to certain limits - the Bank of Japan drew a "red line" at the level of 1.0% and will conduct daily purchase operations so that the yield does not rise above this mark.

Initially, this decision literally blew up the market, the yen's rate began to strengthen. USD/JPY dropped to the mark of 138.05. But then everything calmed down. Investors reasoned that, essentially, the BoJ policy remained ultra-soft. The review of the target range for long-term government bonds has purely symbolic significance so far, as it is unknown whether such a range will actually be used.

Especially since there were immediate critics of this decision. Thus, strategists from Commerzbank warned in advance that the possibility of a slight increase in rates could be devastating for the yen. They referred to the potential growth of inflation and the high level of public debt in the country. "With such half-hearted measures," they said, "the Bank of Japan is fuelling fears that the actual cessation of control over the yield curve could be undesirable or impractical. [...] Even if the yen currently benefits from the possibility of a slight increase in interest rates in the long run, this will be a catastrophic signal for it.".

"And in general, it is still unclear what and how will happen in this distant future," thought market participants, and as a result, the end of the week ended in favour of the dollar. The final point of the week was set at the level of 141.15.

At the time of writing the review, the forecast is maximally neutral: a third of analysts believe that in the coming days the pair will continue to grow, a third expect its fall, and a third have taken a wait-and-see position. The readings of the indicators on D1 look as follows. Among oscillators, 35% are coloured red, 25% are gray, and 40% are green (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone). Among trend indicators, green has a total advantage, such are 100%. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 140.60-140.75, then 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The nearest resistance is 141.95-142.20, then 143.00, 143.75-144.00, 145.05-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally, the maximum of October 2022, 151.95.

Part from the meeting of the Bank of Japan, no significant economic information related to the economy of this country is expected to arrive in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: In Search of a Lost Trigger

(https://i.ibb.co/cJhX1Db/BTCUSD-31-07-2023.jpg)

The decisions of the Federal Reserve (and even more so the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan) have not had a significant impact on bitcoin quotes. After a decline on Monday, July 24, BTC/USD attempted to rise slightly in line with stock indices, but it did not manage to consolidate above $30,000.

Statistics show that after a price surge in June, blue whales (those holding more than 10,000 bitcoins) are locking in profits and selling bitcoin at record rates for 2023, offloading an average of 16,300 coins per day onto exchanges. During this period, the share of whale transactions in the overall inflow to these platforms reached 41%. This even surpasses crisis periods in 2022, such as the Terra project crash and the FTX bankruptcy (when whale proportions were 39% and 33%, respectively).

Conspiracy theorists attribute this sell-off to the whales possessing some kind of insider information. However, it's more likely that the sales are driven by increasing risks due to heightened regulatory pressure on the crypto market from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), including the legal pursuit of its prominent participants.

As for the smaller members of the whale family (those holding between 1,000 and 10,000 bitcoins), they have been actively replenishing their reserves over the past month. Other market participants behaved fairly passively, not exerting a significant impact on quotes.

The only positive development for the crypto market this summer has been the submission of applications to launch spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by giants such as BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. Thanks to these developments, BTC/USD managed to rise above $30,000 in mid-June.

Senior Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas believes that SEC approval of these applications will open up $30 trillion worth of capital to the bitcoin market. According to forecasts by the analytical company Fundstrat, the launch of a bitcoin ETF could increase the daily demand for bitcoin by $100 million. In this case, even before the halving scheduled for April 2024, the price of bitcoin could rise by 521% from its current levels, reaching up to $180,000.

However, clarity about the fate of these applications is still a long way off. For instance, the final decision on BlackRock's application is not expected until the middle of Q3 2023 and no later than mid-March 2024. And this decision does not necessarily have to be positive. As a result of this uncertainty, the joyful excitement among crypto enthusiasts in June has fizzled out, but fear of the SEC remains. This fear continues to put pressure on the market.

Two events could potentially serve as new triggers to initiate a bull rally. The first is a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy towards easing (QE). In other words, it would involve not just an end to the tightening cycle (QT), but the actual start of easing. But so far, this isn't even being discussed. The interest rate will either be frozen at its current level or rise by another 25 b.p. However, based on recent statements, the Federal Reserve does not intend to lower it. In general, we are still far from the point where a significant amount of free money appears on the market, which investors would want to invest in digital assets.

The second trigger is the halving, which could cause not only the subsequent, but also preceding growth in bitcoin. As on traditional markets, shifts in investor sentiment on the crypto market follow certain patterns. Taking into account the so-called "Wall Street Cheat Sheet," which describes the psychology of market cycles, and the emotions traders typically experience, bitcoin is moving towards the "hope" phase after passing through pessimistic phases of "panic," "capitulation," and "depression."

According to the chart by analyst CryptoYoddha, the cryptocurrency is currently going through the "disbelief" or "sucker's rally" stage, with the next step being "hope" for a price recovery, possibly to $50,000 and higher by the end of 2023. The upward movement will correspond to the passage through the stages of "optimism," "belief," "thrill," and finally, "euphoria.".

Cody Buffington, the host of the Altcoin Buzz YouTube channel, holds the view that a surge in bitcoin's volatility will happen even sooner than everyone expects. In his opinion, the impending volatility of the flagship cryptocurrency could rival its growth since January 2023. Buffington noted that in July, the bitcoin price fluctuated in a narrow range around the $30,000 mark, which was a kind of test for both bulls and bears. More often than not, such a flat period occurs before large movements. As evidence, he referred to the Bollinger Bands and a visual display of the indicator, where it can be seen that the bitcoin price chart is in its narrowest state since the beginning of 2023.

A survey of 29 analysts conducted by Finder.com resulted in the following median forecast. Experts expect BTC to rise to $38,488 by the end of the year, with a potential peak for bitcoin in 2023 potentially reaching $42,000. By the end of 2025, according to the average opinion of those surveyed, the price of the coin could reach $100,000, and by the end of 2030 - $280,000.

Naturally, individual forecasts of the experts varied. Overall, the majority of survey participants (59%) are optimistic about BTC and believe that now is a good time to enter the market, 34% simply advise holding existing cryptocurrency, and 7% recommend selling it.

Market strategist Todd "Bubba" Horwitz believes that within the next six months, the flagship cryptocurrency will rise to $35,000, and then to $40,000. Interestingly, "Bubba" has chosen neither the Federal Reserve nor the halving as the trigger, but… Robert F. Kennedy Jr. This Democratic presidential candidate stated that saving the country's economy and supporting the dollar could be facilitated by hard assets such as gold, silver, platinum, and... bitcoin.

Analyst under the pseudonym Trader Tardigrade believes that bitcoin is repeating the same price structure as in the period from 2013 to 2018 when it followed the model of transition from the "previous peak" to the "top-1", which preceded the "top-2" and the "retest" (the stage where bitcoin is now). If this model is correct, the next step will be a price "boom", which could lead to bitcoin's growth to $400,000 in 2026.

Another expert, Stockmoney Lizards, opines that bitcoin has just exited its third historical cycle, during which it reached a historical maximum of $68,900, and has entered its fourth price cycle, the culmination of which could be a new record between $150,000 and $200,000 Q2 or Q3 2025.

Artificial Intelligence also has an opinion on this matter (we couldn't possibly proceed without it!). The experts at Finbold decided to ask the Google Bard machine learning system how much the flagship of the crypto market will cost after the long-awaited halving in 2024. The AI noted that several factors could influence this, but it's highly likely that bitcoin will reach a new all-time high. This will be facilitated not only by halving but also by a more global integration of BTC and interest from institutional investors. Speaking in specific figures, Google Bard noted that after halving, the coin could spike to a $100,000 mark. On the other hand, the AI highlighted factors that could limit the growth of the main cryptocurrency and did not rule out the possibility that the crypto winter could continue in 2024.

As of the time this review was written, on the evening of Friday, July 28, bitcoin doesn't seem to be significantly affected. BTC/USD is being traded around $29,400. The total capitalization of the crypto market has slightly decreased and is at $1.183 trillion ($1.202 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is currently in the Neutral zone, standing at 52 points (compared to 50 points a week ago)
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 02, 2023, 06:22:18 PM
July Results: NordFX's Top 3 Traders Surpass $230,000 in Profits

(https://i.ibb.co/g47ny6c/July-Results-2023.jpg)

NordFX, the brokerage firm, has summarized the performance of its clients' trading transactions for July 2023. The social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, have also been evaluated, as well as the profits gained by the company's IB partners.

- The highest profit in July was achieved by a trader from Western Asia, with account number 1692XXX, whose profit amounted to 192,396 USD. This substantial result was achieved through transactions involving gold (XAU/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).
- The second spot in the ranking of the most successful traders of the month was taken by a client from East Asia, account number 1663XXX, who earned 26,699 USD exclusively through transactions with the currency pair XAU/USD.
- Third place on July's honour podium went to a representative from South Asia (account number 1705XXX), whose result, 15,358 USD, was also primarily achieved through operations with gold (XAU/USD).

The situation unfolded as follows in the NordFX passive investment services:

- In CopyTrading, a fairly large number of interesting (at least at first glance) signals periodically appear among startups, combining high profitability with moderate maximum drawdown. Here are just a few of them: G@SDR (profit 126% / max drawdown 27% / lifespan 50 days), Leonard6789 (184%/27%/27), SURE PROFIT (328%/25%/14). However, looking at these impressive results, it should be understood that they have been achieved through quite aggressive trading. Therefore, when subscribing to them, risk factors must certainly be taken into account. One of the main factors in this case is the very short lifespan of these signals.
   
As for the long-livers, we continue to monitor the fate of the signal KennyFXPRO - Prismo 2K. It started working on May 2, 2021. During this time, the 'veteran' experienced two serious drawdowns: on November 14, 2022, and June 20-23, 2023. In both cases, to avoid account liquidation, its author took the difficult step of closing loss-making positions. However, as a result, the signal is still alive and has shown a profit of 231% over 819 days.

- On the PAMM service display, there are two accounts that we have mentioned several times in previous reviews. These are KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. Just like their veteran colleague from CopyTrading, they suffered serious losses on November 14, 2022: the drawdown at that time approached 43%. However, the PAMM managers decided not to give up, and the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 106% by July 31, 2023, and on the second - 70%.
   
We also continue to monitor the Trade and earn account. It was opened more than a year ago, on March 8, 2022, but was in a dormant state, awakening only in November. As a result, over the past 9 months, its profitability has exceeded 153% with a very small drawdown - less than 13%.

The top three among NordFX's IB partners are as follows:
- A partner from Western Asia, with account number 1645XXX, has claimed the top spot for the third consecutive month. They earned a reward of 13,891 USD in July, bringing their total earnings to nearly 35,000 USD over the three-month period.
- Next is a partner from East Asia, who received 5,565 USD.
- Finally, rounding out the top three is a partner from South Asia, account number 1672XXX, who received a reward of 5,435 USD.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 02, 2023, 06:39:19 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/7Y8hMgV/Crypto-News-02-08-2023.jpg)

– Michael Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, shared his investment advice in a recent Bloomberg interview. "For Newbie trader investors who are comfortable with taking risks, I would advise buying Alibaba stocks and investing in silver, gold, bitcoin, and ethereum, which would make up my $100,000 portfolio," he said. For those who are more cautious, he recommends allocating only 30% of their investment to this portfolio, with the remaining balance to be invested in bonds and index funds.
Novogratz's confidence in the future of bitcoin has been bolstered after the largest investment company, BlackRock, filed for a spot bitcoin ETF. The businessman noted that Larry Fink, BlackRock's CEO, had never believed in bitcoin, but has now changed his opinion. "Now, he's saying that BTC will be a global currency, and people worldwide will trust it. He's taken the orange pill. He believes in bitcoin," said Michael Novogratz.

– Peter Brandt, a legendary trader and veteran of the financial industry, believes that over time, bitcoin, the first cryptocurrency, will "emerge from the shadow" of more traditional investment assets like stocks and gold, and in the future, it will be bitcoin that sets the tone in the financial market.
Brandt emphasized that U.S. regulators will certainly approve the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. However, the analyst believes this approval, and even the halving, won't be news. Following these events, instead of rising, the price of BTC could decline. "In 48 years of speculation," Brandt writes, "I have always found that markets anticipate events before they happen." The Wall Street legend advises always adhering to the adage, "Buy on the rumour, sell on the facts."

– Robert Kiyosaki, the investor and author of the financial bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad", has stated that he still favours bitcoin, along with gold and silver. He has noted that the rise in the stock market won't save the U.S. economy as it occurred solely due to President Joe Biden raising the debt ceiling.

– Fernando Perez Algaba, a prominent crypto and forex influencer who disappeared on July 18, was found dead in Argentina, according to media reports. A group of children discovered the millionaire's mutilated body in a suitcase. His head was later found in a backpack, which had been shot three times.
Algaba, in the months prior to his death, had been sharing photos of his opulent lifestyle with his nearly 920,000 Instagram followers. He had also recounted a fairy tale-like story to the media about his rise from a simple pizza delivery man to a highly successful "Forex and crypto trader". However, it came to light at some point that Algaba was grappling with escalating debts, tax complications, and monetary demands from investors in a crypto scheme that he admitted had "spiralled out of control".
A threat to gouge out his eyes and cut off his hands was received by Algaba a week before his assassination. The New York Post reported that one suspect has already been apprehended by the police in relation to the murder of the crypto millionaire.

– Cryptocurrency traders lost digital assets amounting to $303 million due to hacking attacks in July, according to experts from CertiK. The latest major breach involved an attack on DEX Curve Finance's stablecoin pools, exploiting a vulnerability in the Vyper code. The exchange lost digital assets worth about $52 million. It's worth noting that, as per data from PeckShield, the crypto industry experienced at least 395 hacks from January to June 2023, resulting in a theft of approximately $480 million.

– Billionaire venture capitalist Tim Draper, in an interview with FOX Business, stated that the acceptance of the first cryptocurrency, bitcoin, by the world is simply a matter of time. "Retailers will eventually recognize the 2% savings they could make by accepting bitcoin, eliminating the need to pay banks and credit card companies," he explained.
Draper repeated his prediction in July that the value of bitcoin would ascend to $250,000, a milestone he expects will be reached by 2025. Notably, Draper had made the same price prediction back in 2018, although he then envisaged that bitcoin would hit this mark by 2022, a forecast that evidently did not materialize.

– An analyst under the pseudonym TechDev forecasts a slightly lower but still significant figure for BTC. To predict the price of BTC, he relies on the behaviour of traditional financial markets, such as the price of 10-year Chinese government bonds, the dynamics of the Dollar Index, as well as the balance sheets of Central Banks in major countries, and so on. According to him, the coin's price closely follows global liquidity indicators, and the current economic cycle should once again conclude with a substantial increase in the money supply. Therefore, bitcoin is gearing up for growth.
The analyst believes that the logarithmic growth curve indicator, which overlooks short-term asset fluctuations, suggests that by 2025, the leading cryptocurrency will reach a level of $140,000. "Note that this is a very rough approximation, based on specific parameters of the indicator and the steepness of the momentum," TechDev warned. He also noted that another indicator, Bollinger Bands, is in a very narrow range. The last time bitcoin exited such a range, a full-scale bull trend began.

– According to Crystal Blockchain, an analytics firm, Ukraine has received $225 million in cryptocurrencies since February 2022 to counteract the deployment of Russian troops. The bulk of these donations have been in USDT ($83 million), ethereum ($79 million), and bitcoin ($41 million), with additional contributions made in other cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, Russia has also solicited cryptocurrencies for military expenditure, though the total collected is significantly less, ranging between $2 million to $8 million.

– George Milling-Stanley, the Chief Gold Strategist at State Street Global Advisors, maintains that bitcoin cannot be considered a replacement for gold due to the risk of extensive losses. He emphasized that gold has a history spanning 6,000 years during which it has repeatedly proven its reliability and value, whereas bitcoin has only been around for a dozen years. "Bitcoin's volatility merely refutes claims that the primary cryptocurrency is a long-term strategic asset and can compete with gold. Gold is a hedge against inflation. Gold is insurance against a stock market fall. Gold is insurance against a weakening dollar," the strategist stated.
Notably, State Street Global Advisors manages the world's largest physically backed gold ETF. Therefore, it comes as no surprise that George Milling-Stanley is defending the positions of the precious metal.

– Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX exchange, has published an article in which he predicts the flagship cryptocurrency will skyrocket to $760,000. In his view, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects into the bitcoin blockchain will significantly increase the coin's attractiveness as the base asset of the ecosystem.
Hayes believes that ethereum should exhibit a similar development model. If AI-based projects are integrated into this altcoin, the investment attractiveness of ETH, the primary transaction tool in the network, will greatly intensify. In this case, the altcoin could appreciate by 1,556%. Thus, the BitMEX co-founder doesn't rule out the possibility that ETH might soar to $31,063.
Another factor Hayes considers will stimulate the growth of ETH over the next five years is the expansion of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. The majority of protocols in this ecosystem are based on ethereum, and their popularity continues to increase. The growth in the number of decentralized exchange (DEX) users will lead to a rise in ETH transaction volumes and, consequently, an increase in the altcoin's price.

– A CME Group report reveals that ETH/BTC exhibits almost zero correlation with changes in interest rates, gold futures, and crude oil. However, it is significantly influenced by factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar, changes in bitcoin market supply, and the performance of tech company stocks. The research states that ETH is more vulnerable to USD, and the ETH/BTC pair is more influenced by changes in BTC supply than ETH. Simultaneously, ETH often grows relative to BTC on days when tech company stocks increase in value.
According to CME Group economists' predictions: 1) ETH/BTC will follow the price dynamics of bitcoin. This is due to the fact that ETH strongly correlates with BTC, yet it's more volatile than bitcoin. 2) Increased demand for BTC due to geopolitical factors will also strengthen ETH. 3) ETH will strengthen ahead of the bitcoin halving in 2024, assuming BTC's price increases. However, the analysts noted that the growth in demand for crypto assets, which was very strong during the first eight years of bitcoin's existence, has noticeably slowed down in the past five years. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the halving will lead to a price increase for both BTC and ETH.

– A survey conducted on the financial platform Finder has given insights into the future prospects of Ethereum. Industry experts who took part in the survey predict that Ethereum (ETH) will reach an average value of $2,400 by the end of 2023. Furthermore, they estimate that Ethereum's price will escalate to $5,845 by the end of 2025, and by 2030 it will rise to $16,414. It's important to highlight that 56% of these experts believe the present time is the most favourable for purchasing ETH. Approximately 41% recommend holding onto the cryptocurrency, while a meagre 4% suggest selling it.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 07, 2023, 08:49:17 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 07-11, 2023


EUR/USD: Dollar Bulls Disappointed by NFP

(https://i.ibb.co/wgj27p5/EURUSD-07-08-2023.jpg)

Throughout the past week, leading up to Thursday, August 3, the dollar continued to strengthen its position and build on the offensive that began on July 18. It appears that markets, wary of the global economic condition, have once again turned to the American currency as a safe haven.

Interestingly, the dollar seemed to benefit from Fitch's first downgrade of the long-term US credit rating in 12 years. The agency reduced the rating by one notch from the highest AAA to AA+, a move that seems more of a reputational hit than a trigger for market collapse. However, in such situations, investors tend to shed the weakest and most risky assets in their portfolio, opting for more liquid US treasury bonds and the dollar instead. It's worth recalling 2011 when the US rating downgrade by Standard & Poor's triggered a stock market fall and multi-year dollar growth as it turned out that other countries were in even worse conditions. The shaky state of high-risk corporate bonds doesn't need to be mentioned, as it is self-evident.

A number of analysts do not rule out the possibility that a similar situation could repeat this time around. The key level of the DXY Dollar Index at 100.0 points could serve as a launching pad for further growth. (Round levels like 80.0 during the periods from 1990 to 1995 and in 2014, and 90.0 from 2017 to 2021 played a similar role.).

The macroeconomic data released last week for the United States proved to be rather mixed. On one hand, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the country's manufacturing sector grew month-over-month from 46.0 to 46.4 points, but on the other hand, it fell short of the forecast of 46.8. Conversely, the PMI in the services sector declined from 53.9 to 52.7, against a forecast of 53.0. Despite the index remaining in the recovery zone (above 50), the figures suggest that this sector of the economy is also grappling with the consequences of the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy and decreasing consumer demand. The increase in initial jobless claims from 221K to 227K also put pressure on the dollar.

As for the Eurozone, preliminary data shows that inflation, albeit slowly, is beginning to recede. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell from 5.5% to 5.3%, which fully met market expectations. The rate of decline in retail sales volumes also slowed, moving from -2.4% to -1.4%, beating the forecast of -1.7%.

Following such statistics, everything was set to be decided on Friday, August 4. The market was awaiting fresh data from the US labour market, including indicators such as wage levels, unemployment rates, and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP): the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector. These figures play a special role as the state of the labour market, alongside inflation, influences the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding future monetary policy.

In the end, the figures didn't change significantly. However, market participants decided that they were more indicative of a bearish than bullish sentiment for the dollar. The increase in average hourly earnings (month over month) remained at the previous level of 0.4%, the unemployment rate dropped slightly from 3.6% to 3.5% (forecast was 3.6%). The NFP figure also remained relatively unchanged, registering at 187K compared to 185K a month earlier. However, this number fell short of expectations of 200K.

The NFP is a key barometer of potential cooling in the US economy. A decline in NFP suggests that the 'screws' have been tightened too much, the economy is stagnating, and perhaps further tightening of monetary policy needs to be paused. At the very least. Or maybe it's time to end the cycle of monetary restriction altogether. This logic drove the DXY down and pushed EUR/USD up. As a result, the pair ended the five-day period at a mark of 1.1008.

As for the near-term prospects, at the time of writing this review on the evening of August 4, only 25% of analysts voted for the pair's growth and further dollar weakening, with 75% taking the opposite stance. The picture is similar among the oscillators on D1: 75% point south (15% are in the oversold zone), 15% point north, and 10% are in the neutral zone. The trend indicators present the opposite situation: 75% recommend buying, and the remaining 25% recommend selling.

The pair's nearest support is located around 1.0985, then 1.0945, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0620-1.0635. The bulls will meet resistance around 1.1045, then 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

We've already mentioned that the state of the labour market and inflation are the defining factors for Central Banks' monetary policy formation. While we received plenty of statistics on the former last week, the coming week will bring data on the latter. On Monday, August 8, we'll find out what's happening with inflation in Germany, and on Thursday, August 10th, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) values will be made public. Also, on this day, unemployment statistics in the US will be released. To round off the work week, on Friday, August 11, another important inflation indicator, the US Producer Price Index (PPI), will be revealed.

GBP/USD: Was the BoE Right or Wrong?

The intrigue regarding how much the Bank of England (BoE) would raise the key interest rate on August 3, by 50 or 25 basis points (bps), ended in favour of a more cautious step. The rate increased from 5.00% to 5.25%, returning the GBP/USD pair to the zone of five-week lows, with the local bottom found at the level of 1.2620.

Economists at Commerzbank commented on the decision by the British regulator as follows: "The Bank of England is trying to restore its authority," they write. "However, it is still unclear how successful it will be." Commerzbank believes that the BoE's decision to slow the pace of rate hikes, based only on the fact that June's inflation surprised with a smaller figure, does not necessarily indicate that the Central Bank has changed its overall approach. "If inflationary conditions in the UK continue to improve," the bank's economists believe, "the current rate decision may turn out to be adequate. But if the June inflation report turns out to be an isolated case, then the Bank of England will most likely seem too hesitant again, which will put pressure on the pound.".

In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom decreased from 8.7% to 7.9% (with a forecast of 8.2%). However, inflation in the country remains the highest among developed nations. Considering that it significantly exceeds the target benchmark of 2%, the British regulator, according to some experts, will still have to maintain a more active stance and continue raising the rate, despite the growing risks of recession.

After the fall of DXY due to disappointing labour market data in the US, GBP/USD ended the week at 1.2748. The median forecast of experts for the near future looks quite neutral. Bears were backed by 45%, bulls by 30%, and the remaining 25% preferred to abstain. Among the oscillators on D1, 10% are coloured green, 15% are neutral grey, and 75% are red (a quarter of them signal oversold). The ratio of green and red for trend indicators remains 50% to 50%, as a week ago. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2675-1.2695, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330. 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In case of the pair's growth, it will meet resistance at the levels of 1.2800-1.2815, then 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, 1.3605.

It's noteworthy that the UK's GDP data is set to be released on Friday, August 11, offering some insight into the country's economic health. However, you can expect more significant volatility in the exchange rate on Thursday, August 10, when the U.S. inflation (CPI) data will be published. These economic indicators wield a significant influence on the exchange rate, and will be closely scrutinized by traders and investors. The outcome could potentially influence the Bank of England's future monetary policy decisions and, in turn, impact the value of GBP/USD.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 07, 2023, 08:52:58 AM
USD/JPY: Inflation Decides Everything

During the first half of the week, the yen, like other currencies in the DXY basket, retreated under the pressure of the dollar, and the USD/JPY pair reached a high of 143.88. However, then the Bank of Japan (BoJ) came to the aid of the national currency.

We reported in our last review that for the first time in many years, the new head of the Bank, Kazuo Ueda, decided to turn the rigid targeting of the yield curve into a flexible one. The target level of yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds (JGB) remained the same, 0%. The allowable yield fluctuation range of +/-0.5% was also maintained. But from now on, this limit was no longer to be seen as a rigid boundary but became more flexible. Of course, within certain limits – the Bank of Japan drew a "red line" at the 1.0% level and announced that it would conduct purchase operations to keep the yield from rising above this mark.

And now, less than a week after this revolutionary step for the BoJ, the yield on JGB reached nine-year highs near the 0.65% mark. As a result, the central bank hurried to intervene, and to avoid further growth, it conducted an intervention by buying these securities, thereby supporting the yen.

The Japanese currency received further support on Friday, August 4th, due to weak data on the NFP in the USA. As a result, the week's finish for USD/JPY was at the level of 141.73.

There is no doubt that inflation data will be crucial for central banks and, in turn, for currency markets. At the moment, there is much evidence that inflation in Japan will continue to rise. A few days ago, the country's government recommended a 4% increase in the minimum wage, and spring wage negotiations secured the highest wage growth in the last three decades. Against this backdrop, there is increasing evidence that businesses are ready to pass this growth on to consumers, leading to a rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This trend reflects a willingness among Japanese companies to respond to growing labour costs by increasing prices, potentially fuelling inflation. In turn, this may have an impact on the Bank of Japan's policy decisions and influence the value of the yen in currency markets. The situation clearly highlights the interconnectedness of labour markets, monetary policy, and currency value, and underscores the importance of closely monitoring economic indicators and central bank actions.

To combat rising prices, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) counterparts in the U.S. and Europe are tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. Analysts at the Dutch Rabobank are hoping that the BoJ will finally follow suit and gradually move away from its ultra-soft policy. As a result, they anticipate that the USD/JPY exchange rate could return to the 138.00 mark within a three-to-six-month period.

The view of strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank is less optimistic. They write, "Currently, we forecast the first rate hike by the Bank of Japan in the first half of next year. The shift towards tightening BoJ policy supports our forecast of yen strengthening in the coming year." As for the recent change in the yield curve control policy, MUFG believes that it alone is insufficient to cause a recovery of the Japanese currency.

Economists at Germany's Commerzbank and Finland's Nordea Bank agree that if the Japanese regulator manages to tame inflation, the yen's exchange rate should rise. However, changes in the Bank of Japan's policy will not happen quickly. Therefore, according to many specialists, significant shifts can only be expected around 2024.

The various views and forecasts presented highlight the complexity of the economic environment and the challenges of predicting monetary policy changes and currency movements. The situation in Japan is particularly nuanced, given the BoJ's long-standing struggle with deflation and its commitment to an extremely accommodative monetary stance. Market participants and policymakers will need to pay close attention to a range of economic indicators, central bank signals, and global economic trends to navigate the evolving landscape.

As for the analysts' short-term forecast, it offers no clear direction. A third of them believe the USD/JPY pair will move north in the coming days, a third expect it to move south, and the final third anticipate a sideways or "east" movement. The indicators on the D1 timeframe look as follows:

Oscillators: 75% are coloured green, and 25% are neutral grey. Trend indicators: The greens have a clear advantage, with 85%, and the reds account for only 15%.

The nearest support level is positioned at 141.40, followed by 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, 137.25-137.50, 135.95, 133.75-134.15, 132.80-133.00, 131.25, 130.60, 129.70, 128.10, and 127.20. The nearest resistance stands at 141.20, then 142.90-143.05, 143.75-144.04, 145.05-145.30, 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.95.

Given the divergent opinions of analysts and the varying readings of the technical indicators, market participants should approach this currency pair with caution. A careful examination of upcoming economic data releases, central bank statements, and other fundamental factors could provide additional insights into the likely direction of USD/JPY.

No significant information concerning the Japanese economy is expected in the upcoming week. Traders should be aware that Friday, August 11, is a holiday in Japan, as the country observes Mountain Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: ETH/BTC - Who Will Win?

Last week's crypto review was titled "In Search of a Lost Trigger." Over the past week, the trigger has still not been found. After the decline on July 23-24, BTC/USD moved to another phase of sideways movement, vigorously resisting the strengthening dollar. The surge on August 1-2 to $30,000 looked very much like a bull trap and ended with the pair hesitating and returning to the Pivot Point around $29,200. Digital gold, unlike physical gold, hardly reacted to the publication of labour market data in the US on August 4.

Some analysts believe that the crisis in DeFi is putting additional pressure on Bitcoin, and even predict a significant decline for the leading cryptocurrency in the near future. However, in our view, what they call a "crisis" is not actually one. Everything comes down to the vulnerabilities in early versions of the Vyper programming language, which is used to write smart contracts on which decentralized exchanges (DEX) operate. On July 30, liquidity pools in four pairs (CRV/ETH, alETH/ETH, msETH/ETH, pETH/ETH) using early Vyper versions 0.2.15-0.3.0 were hacked on the Curve Finance exchange. Other pools, the total number of which exceeds two hundred, were unaffected. The total loss amounted to about $52 million.

According to CertiK experts, traders lost digital assets worth $303 million as a result of hacking attacks in July. According to PeckShield data, from January to June 2023, the crypto industry faced at least 395 hacks, resulting in the theft of about $480 million. So, the hacking of Curve Finance is certainly unpleasant, but nothing extraordinary. It's far from the scale of last year's crashes in Terra (LUNA) and FTX.

Perhaps in order to feel more or less at ease, one should not put all their eggs in one basket. This was the message from the CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, Michael Novogratz, in an interview with Bloomberg. "If an investor was Newbie trader and took risks calmly, I would advise him to buy Alibaba shares," the billionaire said. "I would also advise investing in silver, gold, bitcoin, and Ethereum. That would be my portfolio."

Novogratz's confidence in bitcoin's future was bolstered after the largest investment company, BlackRock, filed an application for a spot bitcoin ETF. The businessman noted that BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, never believed in bitcoin, but has now changed his mind. "Now he says that BTC will be a global currency, and people around the world will trust it. He took the orange pill. He believes in bitcoin," Michael Novogratz stated.

Peter Brandt, a legendary trader and veteran of the financial industry, has also "taken the orange pill." He believes that over time, the first cryptocurrency will "come out of the shadow" of more traditional investment assets, such as stocks and gold, and in the future, it will be bitcoin that sets the tone in the financial market.

Peter Brandt emphasized that U.S. regulators will surely approve the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. However, in his opinion, this approval will not be news, just as the halving will not be an event. After them, the price of BTC may even go down instead of up. "In 48 years of speculation," Brandt writes, "I have always found that markets take into account events before they happen." Always follow the saying "Buy on the rumour, sell on the fact," advises the Wall Street legend.

Moderate pessimism regarding the consequences of the halving was also expressed by analysts at CME Group. They noted that the demand for crypto assets, which was very strong during the first eight years of bitcoin's existence, has noticeably slowed down over the past five years. Therefore, in their opinion, there is no guarantee that the halving will lead to an appreciation of either BTC or altcoins.

Despite the warnings, many influencers and crypto enthusiasts continue to compete in forecasting how much bitcoin will grow in the coming years. Here are some opinions, sorted in ascending order. An analyst going by the nickname TechDev forecasts the price of BTC by relying on the behaviour of traditional financial markets, including the price of 10-year Chinese bonds, the dynamics of the Dollar Index, as well as the balances of the central banks of major countries, etc. According to him, the coin's rate closely follows the indicators of global liquidity, and the current economic cycle should once again conclude with massive growth in the money supply. Therefore, bitcoin is preparing for growth. In the analyst's view, the logarithmic growth curve indicator, which ignores short-term asset fluctuations, indicates that the leading cryptocurrency will reach a level of $140,000 by 2025.

"I will note that this is a very rough approximation, based on specific parameters of the indicator and the steepness of the momentum," warned TechDev. The analyst also noted that such an indicator as Bollinger Bands is in a very narrow range. The last time bitcoin exited such a range, a full-scale bull trend began.

Next in our top 3 is venture capitalist and billionaire Tim Draper, who stated in an interview with FOX Business that sooner or later, the entire world will embrace the first cryptocurrency. "It's only a matter of time before retailers realize they can save 2% by accepting bitcoin. They don't have to pay banks and credit card manufacturers," he explained. Draper repeated his forecast for the first cryptocurrency's growth to $250,000, predicting this would happen by 2025. (It's worth noting that the investor had already mentioned this price back in 2018, though at that time he referred to 2022 as the "Hour X." As we can see, the billionaire was mistaken.)

And finally, the gold step of the podium of honor this time goes to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes. He published an article in which he forecasted the flagship cryptocurrency's surge to $760,000. In his opinion, the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) projects into the BTC blockchain will sharply increase the coin's appeal as a foundational asset of the ecosystem.

Hayes believes that ethereum should demonstrate a similar development model. If AI-based projects are integrated into this altcoin, the investment attractiveness of ETH, the main transaction instrument in the network, will sharply intensify. In this case, the altcoin may appreciate by 1,556%. In other words, the BitMEX co-founder does not rule out that ETH may soar to $31,063.

Another factor stimulating the growth of ETH over the next five years, according to Hayes, will be the expansion of the decentralized finance (DeFi) market. Most protocols of this ecosystem are based on ethereum, and their popularity continues to grow. An increase in the number of users of decentralized exchanges (DEX) will lead to a growth in transaction volumes with ETH and, consequently, to a rise in the price of the altcoin.

A survey was conducted among industry experts on the financial platform Finder to assess the future prospects of ethereum. The experts forecasted that ETH would be valued at an average of $2,400 by the end of 2023. They also predict that the price of ethereum will reach $5,845 by the end of 2025, and $16,414 by the end of 2030. It's worth noting that 56% of the experts believe that now is the most opportune time to buy ETH, while 41% advise holding the cryptocurrency, and a mere 4% recommend selling it.

PwC, the world's second-largest consulting firm, conducted a survey involving representatives from both cryptocurrency and traditional hedge funds. 93% of those surveyed believe that the market has already hit bottom, and they expect the cryptocurrency market to grow by the end of 2023. Among cryptocurrencies, they continue to favour bitcoin and ethereum. However, 72% think that ethereum has no chance of ever surpassing bitcoin in market capitalization. Of the remaining 28% who believe in the altcoin's victory, the majority expect that it will occur within the next 2 to 5 years.

A recent report from CME Group showed that ETH/BTC exhibits almost zero correlation with changes in interest rates, gold futures, and crude oil. However, it is significantly influenced by factors such as the strength of the dollar, changes in the market supply of bitcoin, and the dynamics of technology company stocks. The research indicates that ETH is more vulnerable to the strength of the USD, and changes in BTC supply have more influence on ETH/BTC than changes in ETH supply. At the same time, ETH often grows relative to BTC on days when technology company stocks (S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Tech indices) are on the rise.

As of the time of writing this overview, on the evening of Friday, August 4, BTC/USD is trading around $28,950, ETH/USD is around $1,820, and ETH/BTC is at 0.0629. The total market capitalization of the crypto market continues to decline and stands at $1.157 trillion ($1.183 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Neutral zone at a mark of 54 points (52 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 09, 2023, 06:12:20 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/sVWCycn/Crypto-News-09-08-2023.jpg)

– Craig Wright, an Australian computer scientist and businessman who claims to be Satoshi Nakamoto, has now expressed his disillusionment. "As the creator of bitcoin, I am both fascinated and disappointed by how far the so-called cryptocurrency industry has deviated from bitcoin's original vision," he wrote. Wright insists that bitcoin was never intended to be an investment or a store of value. Yet, the focus has now shifted towards speculation, quick profits, and "pump and dump" strategies. "It's saddening to see so much attention given to the price, rather than the transformative power of the technology," laments the scientist.

– Adam Back, one of the leading figures in the crypto industry and CEO of Blockstream, has wagered a million satoshi (0.01 BTC) that the price of bitcoin will reach $100,000 before the next halving. The bet was the result of a wager made with a user of platform X (formerly Twitter) under the pseudonym Vikingo. Vikingo believes that the 'digital gold' will not achieve this price level until at least 2025. The head of Blockstream is confident it will happen by March 31, 2024, which is roughly a month before the halving. Blockstream's former Director of Strategy and now CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, agreed with his former colleague. He also anticipates a new all-time high will be reached before the halving, not after.
At the time of writing, a bet of 1 million satoshi is approximately worth $290. Considering Adam Back's net worth is estimated to be between $100-300 million, the bet amount elicited a number of cheeky comments. Some users even offered to provide the entrepreneur with financial assistance.

– The popular analyst known as PlanB, who created the S2F (Stock-to-Flow) bitcoin forecasting model, believes that by the time of the next halving, BTC will be valued at around $55,000. The S2F model's signals indicate the likelihood of the coin moving to this price point.
Opinions gathered by the BeInCrypto editorial team vary from PlanB's prediction. For instance, analysts from Seeking Alpha believe that the cryptocurrency should be priced at about $98,000 for miners to remain profitable after the halving event.

– Mayor of Miami and U.S. presidential candidate, Francis Xavier Suarez, told CoinDesk TV in an interview that his election campaign is accepting donations in the leading cryptocurrency. Supporters of the politician can donate a minimum of 0.00034 BTC or an equivalent of $1.
"Nobody wants the federal government to know how much money you have and where you keep it," Suarez stated. "The biggest mistake made by this administration [under President Biden] is that they don't understand the crypto industry, so they've resorted to a heavy-handed regulatory approach instead of establishing basic rules.".

– Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, debunked investors' speculations about the first cryptocurrency's price plummeting to the $12,000 mark and reassured those talking about a total capitulation of altcoins.
"The bear market has been ongoing for over two years," he wrote, making it the longest market in cryptocurrency history. However, this is unsurprising against the backdrop of hacks, bankruptcies, and legal disputes in the crypto industry. From the analyst's observations, bearish sentiments are most often found among those who invested in digital assets for the first time in 2021. "For them, the slow loss of money feels extremely painful, and they only anticipate further portfolio value decline," noted the expert.
In his view, we are currently in the second stage of capitulation – the most boring period of the cycle where it seems like nothing is happening in the markets. "Be patient, take solace in the fact that you're still in the game, accumulate positions. [...] Major companies are entering the fray, and the wisest thing you can do is follow their lead," Van De Poppe advised.

– Founder of the charitable foundation The Bitcoin Foundation, Charles Shrem, believes that the issuance of stablecoins by PayPal (PYUSD) will lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin to at least $250,000 much faster than anticipated. In his view, ETH will surge at an accelerated pace to $18,000 since PYUSD is issued on the Ethereum blockchain. Consequently, the value of this altcoin may rise due to an increased number of network users brought by PayPal clients.
It remains a mystery why Shrem believes PYUSD will positively impact bitcoin's price. A crypto trader known by the pseudonym Smitty thinks that the issuance of stablecoins will, on the contrary, result in a decrease in BTC's value, as it will boost the investment appeal of its competitor, ETH.

– The primary digital asset has been held within a narrow trading range for two months, and network indicators point to accumulation in anticipation of a price breakout. According to the Blockware Intelligence newsletter, the volume of liquid and highly liquid supply is at its lowest level since 2018. Speculative traders swap a decreasing number of coins back and forth, while long-term holders consistently resort to cold storage, Blockware stated.

– Prominent trader, Tone Vays, noted that selling pressure is on the rise and the price of the foremost cryptocurrency could significantly decline. "Bitcoin continues to struggle, but I'd say there's a high probability of the BTC rate dropping to the next moving average. And if daily candles keep closing below the previous ones, I'd advise reducing the position by 50% because I can't pinpoint to what levels bitcoin might drop. It could potentially fall to $25,000. There are enough people in the market who, for some reason, keep selling their coins," the analyst writes.
Tone Vays is convinced: if bitcoin does drop to $25,000, there's a high likelihood of further long-term decline. From an expert's perspective, the primary cryptocurrency "stands on the edge of a cliff, and things are looking grim." "The price needs to rebound immediately, I mean, within this month. We can't afford to decline for another month; otherwise, panic will ensue in the market, and I wouldn't be surprised if BTC trades below $20,000. Moreover, miners might start offloading their reserves, which is highly risky," the specialist warns.
It's worth noting that in late May, Vays predicted a swift rise of the premier cryptocurrency above $30,000. The forecast turned out to be accurate; however, BTC couldn't sustain that level.

– The Arkham Intelligence platform has offered a $46,000 reward for credible information leading to the perpetrator behind the FTX exchange hack. It's worth noting that on November 11, 2022, FTX suffered a theft of crypto assets amounting to approximately $400 million. On the same day, the exchange filed for bankruptcy. To claim the reward, individuals are required not only to identify the hacker but also to provide indisputable evidence of the individual's guilt. Submissions for this bounty must be made by August 17.
Miguel Morel, CEO of Arkham, has expressed that the platform will persistently support such investigations in the future to deter potential offenders.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 13, 2023, 03:42:04 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 14-18, 2023


EUR/USD: Inflation, GDP, and Prospects for Monetary Policy

Looking at the two-week flat trend on the EUR/USD chart, one is reminded that it's August, a vacation season. Even the US inflation data released on Thursday, August 10th, couldn't disrupt the relaxed demeanour of traders. And yet, they warrant close attention. The year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth of 3.2% and core inflation at 4.7% came in below forecasts (3.3% and 4.8% respectively). The monthly CPI remained unchanged at 0.2%, marking the lowest figure in over two years. As for the GDP, previously released data confirmed a diminished risk of the national economy slipping into a recession. After a 2.0% year-on-year rise in the first quarter of 2023, the second quarter recorded a 2.4% growth, significantly surpassing market expectations of 1.8%.

Therefore, the US boasts a robust economy with a gradually cooling labour market and inflation steadily approaching the 2.0% target level. All of this suggests that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has been bearing positive fruits. The regulator can now, at the very least, pause the tightening process. They might even conclude the current monetary restriction cycle. The likelihood of the dollar interest rate remaining at the current 5.50% level in September is estimated at 89%, whereas the odds of it increasing by 25 basis points (b.p.) by year's end stand at just 27%.

In such a situation, the dollar should have begun to relinquish its positions, but this did not occur. Of course, immediately after the inflation data release, EUR/USD spiked by approximately 50 points but soon reverted. Why did this happen? While the vacation season theory could be considered, there are two considerably more crucial reasons. The first is the disappointing results of the latest auction for the 30-year US Treasury bonds, which concluded with a yield of 4.199%, lower than rates in the secondary market. The second reason lies in the weakness of the dollar's European counterpart.

The best insight into how the Eurozone's economy is faring is provided by the "Economic Bulletin" published by the European Central Bank (ECB) on that same Thursday, August 10. Here are its key points:

"Inflation continues to decline, but it is expected to remain too high for an extended period." "The immediate economic outlook for the Eurozone has worsened, mainly due to weakening domestic demand. High inflation and tighter financing conditions are suppressing spending growth." "A modest production growth in the Eurozone is anticipated in the third quarter, largely driven by the services sector." "Upside risks for inflation include potential resurgence in energy and food prices, as well as risks associated with Russia's unilateral withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative." "The prospects for economic growth and inflation remain highly uncertain." According to a recent Reuters poll, such a bulletin from the ECB has left market participants guessing about their next moves.

Next week, Eurostat will present a report with revised GDP data for the Eurozone for Q2 2023, as well as figures for industrial production and inflation for July. The preliminary GDP estimate showed a growth of +0.3% (+0.6% year-on-year) after stagnant growth in Q4 2022 and a decline of -0.1% in Q1 2023. While inflation is on the decline (currently at 5.5%, compared to 10.6% in October 2022), it still exceeds the target level of 2.0%. If the ECB continues to maintain a strict monetary policy and energy prices rise, many economists believe this could lead to a 5.0% drop in the Eurozone's GDP in 2024.

The comparison of the provided data suggests that the US currency currently has a greater chance of prevailing. The dollar's role as a safe-haven asset also plays in its favour. Naturally, a lot hinges on the actions of the Fed and the ECB this fall. As for the past week, after the release of the US production inflation data (PPI), the dollar further strengthened its position, and the EUR/USD pair concluded the week at 1.0947.

At the time of writing this review, on the evening of August 11, 35% of analysts have voiced in favour of the pair's rise in the near term, 50% sided with the dollar and took the opposite stance, and the remaining 15% voted for the continuation of the sideways trend. Among the oscillators on D1, the majority, 80%, favor the US currency (with 15% in the oversold zone), 10% point northward, and 10% are in the neutral zone. Among the trend indicators, 65% recommend selling, and the remaining 35% suggest buying. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0895-1.0925, followed by 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, and 1.0620-1.0635. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0985, then at 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

For the upcoming week, notable events include the release of U.S. retail sales data on Tuesday, August 15. On Wednesday, August 16, the Eurozone's GDP figures will be revealed, and the minutes from the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting will also be published. Data on U.S. unemployment and manufacturing activity will be presented on Thursday. To cap off the week, on Friday, August 18, we'll get insights into the inflation (CPI) situation in the Eurozone.

GBP/USD: Day X – August 16

According to data released on Friday, August 11, by the UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS), the country's economic growth for the second quarter was 0.2%, compared to a 0.1% increase in the first quarter (with a forecast of 0.0%). Year-on-year, while forecasts were at 0.2%, the actual GDP growth was 0.4% (with the previous figure being 0.2%). The total volume of industrial production in June also rose, registering a +1.8% compared to a forecast of +0.1% and a -0.6% decline in May. Overall, the upward momentum is evident. This reduces the risks of recession and heightens the likelihood that the Bank of England (BoE) will maintain its hawkish stance at least until the end of 2023. Especially given that the country's inflation remains relatively high, with the year-on-year CPI at 7.9%. To combat this, according to predictions, the BoE might increase the key interest rate in 2-3 steps from the current 5.25% to 6.00% this year, giving the British currency a distinct edge.

Strategists at the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING, believe that the positive GDP figures won't be the defining factor for the Bank of England. "The June GDP growth numbers for the UK surpassed expectations," they agree. "However, we believe that the implications for the Bank of England are likely to be quite limited, as the numbers aren't significantly different from its forecasts. The primary focus will be on next week's service sector inflation and wage growth figures, [...] which are crucial for the pound."

GBP/USD closed at the 1.2695 mark on Friday, August 11. The near-term forecast from experts is as follows: 60% are bearish on the pair, 20% are bullish, and the same percentage chose to remain neutral. On the D1 oscillators, bears have a unanimous 100% backing, with 15% of these indicating an oversold condition. Trend indicators display a 65% to 35% split in favour of the bears (red). Should the pair trend downwards, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2675, 1.2620-1.2635, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In the event of an upward movement, resistance can be expected at 1.2760, followed by 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, and 1.3605.

As for the UK macroeconomic statistics, a flurry of data from the national labour market awaits us on Tuesday, August 15, including indicators such as wage growth and unemployment rates. The next day, on Wednesday, August 16, key inflation (CPI) figures for the United Kingdom will be released. Lastly, on Friday, August 18, we'll receive statistics on retail sales in the country.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 13, 2023, 03:44:29 PM
USD/JPY: The Pair Returns to its Moonshot

(https://i.ibb.co.com/TYs7QL9/USDJPY-14-08-2023.jpg)

While EUR/USD and GBP/USD spent the week trading sideways, USD/JPY once again soared into the stratosphere. On Friday, it reached a height of 144.995, almost touching the peak of June 30. It last traded at such levels over a year ago, in June 2022. The week concluded slightly lower, settling at 144.93. Neither the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) recent decision to shift from a rigid yield curve targeting for government bonds to a more flexible approach, nor the interventions conducted by the Japanese regulator, were able to support the yen.

Inflation data is crucial for most central banks. To combat rising prices, regulators in the US, EU, and the UK are tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates. However, the BoJ disregards such methods, even as inflation in the country continues to climb. Moreover, the country's government has recommended a 4% increase in the minimum wage, and spring wage negotiations have resulted in the highest wage growth in three decades. Against this backdrop, there's mounting evidence that businesses are ready to pass on these increases to consumers, which could lead to a rise in CPI.

At Japan's MUFG Bank, they forecast that the Bank of Japan might only decide on its first rate hike in the first half of the following year. Only then will there be a shift towards strengthening the yen. As for the recent change in the yield curve control policy, MUFG believes it's insufficient on its own to prompt a recovery of the Japanese currency.

Analysts at Germany's Commerzbank feel that the lack of clarity in the Bank of Japan's policy further depresses the yen and hinders its growth. Over the recent months, when all Central Banks, except the Japanese one, have raised their key rates, one thing has become clear: the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will not be favourable for the yen in the foreseeable future, Commerzbank shares. They add that the yen is a complex currency to understand, possibly linked to the BoJ's monetary policy.

Strategists at Societe Generale opine that if the USD/JPY pair consolidates above 144.50-145.00, growth may continue to 146.10 (76.4% correction of the movement from last October) and then even higher to 147.90.

Analysts at Credit Suisse also maintain a bullish outlook on the pair and aim higher in their forecasts. "We continue to anticipate a retest of our interim target of 145.00-145.12," they write. "Although this mark is expected to hold again, our core forecast remains bullish, and we anticipate that it will ultimately be breached. This will lead the market to resistance at 146.54-146.66, and eventually, to a target of 148.57.".

Concerning the near-term perspective, the median forecast of experts greatly diverges from the aforementioned opinions. An overwhelming majority of them (80%) expect a correction of USD/JPY downwards. (One possible reason for the decline could be another currency intervention.) The remaining 20% chose to remain neutral. The number of those expecting further growth of the pair this time was zero. Both trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are 100% green, although a quarter of the latter signals overbought conditions. The nearest support level is located at 144.50, followed by 143.75-144.04, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance stands at 145.30, followed by 146.85-147.15, 148.85, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.95.

Among the events of the upcoming week in the calendar, one can note Tuesday, August 15, when data on consumer spending, industrial production volumes, and Japan's GDP will be published. The next day, the value of the Reuters Tankan Business Confidence Index will be known, and on Friday, August 18, we will learn the values of the National Consumer Price Index (CPI).

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Search for a Trigger Continues

Two weeks ago, we titled our review "In Search of the Lost Trigger". Over the days that have passed since then, the trigger has still not been found. After the drop on July 23-24, BTC/USD moved to another phase of sideways movement, moving along the Pivot Point around $29,500. According to some analysts, market participants avoided sharp movements in anticipation of inflation data in the US, which was published on Thursday, August 10. Which, as a result, the crypto market completely ignored.

Bitcoin network indicators suggest accumulation in anticipation of a price breakthrough. According to the Blockware Intelligence newsletter, the volume of liquid and highly liquid supply has dropped to its lowest level since 2018. As noted in Blockware, speculative traders are exchanging a decreasing amount of coins back and forth, while long-term holders have tucked their reserves into cold wallets.

Opinions on which direction this breakthrough may take, as usual, are divided. For instance, trader, analyst, and founder of the venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, refuted suggestions about the first cryptocurrency's price dropping to the $12,000 mark and reassured those talking about a complete capitulation of altcoins.

"The bear market has been ongoing for more than two years," he wrote, making it the longest market in cryptocurrency history. However, this is not surprising given the hacks, bankruptcies, and litigations in the crypto industry. From the analyst's observations, the most bearish sentiments are often found among those who first invested in digital assets specifically in 2021. "For them, the slow loss of money feels extremely painful, and they only expect further portfolio value decreases," the expert noted.

In his opinion, the second stage of capitulation is now taking place: the most boring period of the cycle, during which it seems that nothing at all is happening in the markets. "Be patient, enjoy the realization that you are still in the market, accumulate positions. [...] Big companies are getting into the game, and the wisest thing you can do is to follow them," Van De Poppe advised.

A considerably less optimistic forecast was given by another renowned trader, Tone Vays. He noted that selling pressure is increasing and the price of the first cryptocurrency might significantly decline. "Bitcoin continues to struggle, but I'd say there's a high chance the BTC price could drop to the next moving average. And, if daily candles keep closing below the previous ones, I would advise reducing the position by 50% because I can't predict how low bitcoin might fall. It could easily drop to $25,000. There are enough people in the market who, for some reason, keep selling their coins," the analyst writes.

Tone Vays is convinced: if bitcoin does indeed drop to $25,000, there's a high likelihood of further long-term decline. From the expert's perspective, the first cryptocurrency is "on the edge of a cliff, and things look bad." "The price needs to turn around immediately, I mean - this month. We don't have the luxury to drop another month, otherwise, panic will spread in the market, and I won't be surprised if BTC trades below $20,000. Miners will also start liquidating their holdings, which is very dangerous," warns the specialist. (It's worth noting that at the end of May, Vays spoke about the imminent rise of the first cryptocurrency above $30,000. The forecast turned out to be correct, but BTC couldn't maintain that level.).

A potential trigger for the start of a bullish rally could have been the news of payment giant PayPal issuing its own stablecoin, PayPal USD (PYUSD). This was announced on Monday, August 7. The founder of the charity The Bitcoin Foundation, Charlie Shrem (Charles Shrem), quickly stated that this event would lead to a rise in bitcoin's price to at least $250,000. Moreover, this will happen much faster than expected. In his opinion, ETH will also appreciate at an accelerated pace to $18,000, as PYUSD is issued on the Ethereum blockchain. Consequently, the price of this altcoin may increase due to a rise in the number of network users from PayPal's clientele.

However, unlike Charlie Shrem, most experts reacted sceptically to the news, as the tool doesn't offer anything new or useful for users. It also remains a mystery why Shrem suddenly decided that PYUSD would positively affect the price of bitcoin. Logically, the issuance of stablecoins should, on the contrary, cause a decrease in BTC's value, as it would enhance the investment appeal of a competitor - ETH. Nonetheless, PYUSD did not act as a trigger for either bitcoin or Ethereum, which is evident from the BTC/USD and ETH/USD charts.

As a result, investors have three events in "reserve" that can potentially push the crypto market upward. These are: 1) a radical easing of the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve, 2) the approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to launch spot bitcoin ETFs, and 3) the bitcoin halving.

It should be noted that the next halving is tentatively scheduled for April 12, 2024. Every 210,000 blocks or once every 4 years, it halves the reward that miners receive for mining a block. This is done to create a deflationary environment and support the value of BTC by reducing the rate of new coin issuance. (The total emission limit is set at 21 million coins). Initially, from 2009, miners received 50 BTC for each generated block. In 2012, the reward was reduced to 25 BTC, in 2016 to 12.5 BTC, and after 2020, to 6.25 BTC. When the 2024 halving occurs, the mining reward will decrease to 3.125 coins.

As a result of this event, miners will have to adapt to the new reality. They will need to acquire more powerful and energy-efficient equipment or upgrade existing ones. According to forecasts, many small companies will likely leave the market or be acquired by larger players. Consequently, a centralization of the mining market can be expected, which will be taken over by a few large pools. This will make the network more susceptible to manipulations and hacker attacks. However, a sharp increase in the price of BTC can at least partially offset these negative factors.

Many market participants expect that after this event, the bitcoin price might skyrocket once again, as evidenced by historical data. After the 2012 halving, the BTC price rose from $11 in November 2012 to $1,100 in November 2013. The 2016 halving: the price increased from $640 in July to $20,000 in December 2017. The 2020 halving allowed the coin's price to rise from $9,000 in May 2020 to a peak of $69,000 in November 2021. However, despite these statistics, experts warn that past results do not guarantee their repetition in the future.

One of the leading figures in the crypto industry and CEO of Blockstream, Adam Back, placed a bet of one million satoshi (0.01 BTC) that the price of bitcoin would reach $100,000 a month before the halving. The bet was made as a result of a wager with a user of platform X (formerly Twitter) under the nickname Vikingo, who believes that the digital gold quotes will not reach this height until 2025.

Back's former colleague at Blockstream, and now CEO of Jan3, Samson Mow, agreed with him. Experts from Seeking Alpha mention almost the same figure. They believe that the cryptocurrency should be worth about $98,000 for miners to stay afloat after the halving. However, a popular analyst known as PlanB, based on his S2F model, stated that by the time of the halving, BTC will be worth much less - only about $55,000.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, August 11, BTC/USD is trading around $29,400, ETH/USD is around $1,840. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has grown and is now $1.171 trillion ($1.157 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Neutral zone at 51 points (54 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 16, 2023, 05:46:11 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co.com/RvvXCQF/Crypto-News-16-08-2023.jpg)

– The digital gold market has reached a stage of extreme apathy and exhaustion, with volatility indicators at the beginning of the week hitting record low levels. This conclusion was drawn by Glassnode analysts. To support their statement, the experts pointed to the Bollinger Bands spread narrowing to 2.9%. Lower values were observed only twice in history: 1) in September 2016, when quotes were at $604 ahead of the bull market's onset, and 2) in January 2023, when the price traded between $52 and was at $16,800.
Such low volatility reflects a situation where the acquisition cost of most coins moving on the blockchain is very close to the spot price. For this reason, realized gains and losses are relatively small. "This suggests that all investors wanting to lock in profits or losses at this price range have done so. The market needs to take steps to incentivize new spending and break the investors' apathy," the specialists explained.

– Michael Van De Poppe, a trader, analyst, and founder of Eight Venture Company, posits that we're currently in the second phase of capitulation. This phase is often perceived as the most uneventful period in the cycle, making it feel as though the markets are stagnant. "Stay patient and find solace in the fact that you're still engaged in the market. Continue to accumulate positions," Van De Poppe suggests. He emphasizes that as major corporations make their moves, the smartest strategy is to follow their lead. He believes that for bitcoin to experience substantial growth, it needs to break the $29,700 barrier. Once this is achieved, its next significant milestone will be reaching $40,000.

– Kevin Kelly, the co-founder and head of research at Delphi Digital, has identified signs of an early bull rally. According to Kelly, a typical crypto cycle begins when bitcoin reaches an all-time high (ATH), followed by an 80% drop. Roughly two years later, it rebounds to its previous ATH and continues to ascend to a new peak. This pattern typically spans about four years.
Kelly believes this trend isn't arbitrary and aligns with a "broader business cycle." He observed that bitcoin's price peak often coincides with the ISM manufacturing index, which is currently in the final phase of a downtrend. This situation reminds Kelly of the market dynamics between 2015 and 2017.
He pointed out that the last two bitcoin halvings occurred approximately 18 months after the asset hit its lowest point and seven months before it broke its historical high. The next halving is anticipated in April 2024. Following that, Kelly estimates that about six months later, bitcoin might reach a new ATH. However, he cautioned that there's no certainty this scenario will play out as described. He also speculated on the possibility of a "false bottom" emerging.

– An analyst known as Ignas has also conducted a cyclical analysis and predicts a bitcoin bull market in 2024. He bases his projection on a recurrent sequence observed in the primary cryptocurrency over the years: 1. A descent of 80% from its all-time high (ATH), bottoming out a year later (4th quarter of 2022). 2. A two-year period to recover and reach its preceding peak (4th quarter of 2024). 3. An additional year of price appreciation leading to a new ATH (Q4 2025).
Ignas notes that in 2022, the cryptocurrency sector grappled with macroeconomic hurdles. However, current indications suggest an improving landscape. The anticipated bitcoin halving in April 2024 might align with a worldwide uptick in liquidity, potentially fuelling the expected bull run. Furthermore, emerging applications for bitcoin and the initiation of spot bitcoin ETFs, once greenlit by the SEC, are likely to have a consequential impact on its price.

– Based on a survey conducted by the popular blogger and analyst known as PlanB, 60% of respondents believe that a bull market will commence following the halving. PlanB himself estimates that by the time of this event, BTC will be valued at around $55,000. Indications for the coin's potential rise to this level are suggested by the Bitcoin forecasting model S2F, which was developed by him.

– Since November 2022, the Russian rouble has depreciated by approximately 65% (from 50 to 100 roubles per $1). This devaluation has allowed miners in Russia to earn substantially more since mining costs have remained constant. This has sparked a significant surge, despite international sanctions. Representatives from the company BitCluster have shared that orders for large batches of equipment (of 10, 20, or even 30 MW) are coming in almost daily. "The market simply can't construct new data centres fast enough to meet the demand. Major clients find themselves waiting for months," shared sources at BitCluster.
A significant portion of the demand comes from Chinese miners who are migrating from the US to Russia. However, there remain inherent risks in conducting this business in Russia due to the near absence of regulatory oversight.

– The author of the best-selling financial book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, dubbed gold and silver as "God's money," while designating bitcoin as the "dollar of the people." "I have an affinity for bitcoin primarily because we both oppose the same entities - the US Federal Government, its Treasury, the Federal Reserve, and Wall Street. I hold no trust in them. If you trust them, then keep your savings in dollars; you'll essentially have an IOU," he expressed.
He further opined, "Bitcoin seems to be on a trajectory towards $100,000. The downside: if there's a crash in the stock and bond markets, we might see gold and silver prices soaring astronomically. Even grimmer, a collapse of the global economy could see bitcoin valued at a million, with gold potentially costing $75,000 and silver around $60,000. The magnitude of the national debt is alarming, putting everyone in a precarious position," Kiyosaki commented. He concluded with, "I sincerely hope I'm mistaken.".

– Goldman Sachs strategists anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut its key interest rate in the second quarter of 2024. Such a move is expected to provide a boost to BTC's price. The motivation behind this rate cut could be the inflation reaching its target rate of 2.0%. However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the Fed's actions remain unpredictable, and the rate might linger at its peak level for an extended period.
For context: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, 68% of market participants expect that by May 2024, the rate will be reduced by at least 25 basis points.

– American political commentator Jon Stewart accused Wall Street, the global financial hub, of corruption and compared its operations to the schemes of Sam Bankman-Fried, the head of the now-bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX. "His objective was to sow discord in certain parts of the financial system, namely the cryptocurrency sector. When I look at the intricate workings of Wall Street, it doesn't seem much different from what Bankman-Fried was up to," Stewart stated.

– Well-known trader and analyst, Dave_the_Wave, who has a reputation for accurate predictions, has cautioned that bitcoin might undergo a major correction by the end of 2023. He suggests that bitcoin could drop to the lower end of its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), marking an approximate decline of 38% from its high this year. However, Dave_the_Wave also points out a silver lining: as bitcoin experiences heightened price stabilization from a macroeconomic standpoint, it's gradually shedding its volatility and evolving into a more stable investment asset.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 19, 2023, 10:27:36 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 21-25, 2023


EUR/USD: What Strengthens the Dollar and What Can Weaken It

The US currency maintained its ascent last week. The minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)'s July meeting of the US Federal Reserve were published on Wednesday, August 16, suggesting the possibility of further monetary policy tightening.

Before the minutes were unveiled, market players debated how long the central interest rate would linger at 5.5%. However, once the document's content was revealed, discussions shifted to how much more this rate could increase. Several FOMC members expressed in the minutes that the current economic landscape might not see as significant a decrease in inflation as hoped. This sentiment paves the way for the Fed to consider another rate hike. As a result, the likelihood that the interest rate could climb to 5.75% or even higher in 2023 has surged from 27% to 37%, reinforcing the dollar's position.

Other factors bolstering the US dollar include the favourable state of the securities market and the robust health of the US economy. Positive retail sales figures prompted the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta to revise its Q3 GDP forecast for the country, raising it from 5.0% to 5.8%. The real estate market is also showing promising signs: the monthly issued construction permits rose by 0.1%. Furthermore, the construction of new homes increased by 3.9%, reaching 1.452 million units, surpassing the projected 1.448 million. Retail sales statistics released on August 15th further supported the Dollar Index (DXY), with consumer activity in July expanding by 0.7%: outpacing the anticipated 0.4% and the prior 0.2% figure. Collectively, these data points underscore a diminishing risk of the US economy entering a recession, suggesting a likely continuation of the monetary restriction phase. Additionally, escalating oil prices might nudge the regulator towards subsequent rate hikes, potentially spurring another inflationary wave.

On the other hand, the situation in the US banking sector could pose challenges for the dollar. Neil Kashkari, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, believes that the crisis that began in March, leading to the bankruptcy of several major banks, might not yet be over. He opines that if the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, it will significantly complicate the operations of banks and could trigger a new wave of bankruptcies. This perspective is echoed by analysts at Fitch Ratings. Their projections even consider the possibility of downgrading the ratings of several US banks, including giants like JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs believe that the Federal Reserve might only consider reducing the key rate in Q2 2024. A potential trigger for this move could be the inflation rate stabilizing at the target level of 2.0%. However, Goldman Sachs acknowledges that the actions of the regulator remain unpredictable, which means the rate could stay at peak levels for a more extended period. Overall, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, 68% of market participants anticipate that by May 2024, the rate will be reduced by at least 25 basis points (b.p.).

Regarding the Eurozone's economy, data published on August 16th showed that it grew by 0.3% (quarter-on-quarter) for Q2 2023. This figure aligns perfectly with predictions and matches the growth rate of Q1. On an annual basis, the GDP growth stood at 0.6%, which is consistent with both forecasts and the previous quarter's numbers. The inflation figures released on Friday, August 18, were also unsurprising. They matched both market expectations and previous figures. In July, the Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) was recorded at 5.5% (year-on-year) and -0.1% (month-on-month).

Amid such consistently modest economic performance, the euro continues to face downward pressure. Factors contributing to this include the potential energy crisis in Europe this upcoming winter and uncertainties surrounding the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Starting the five-day trading period at 1.0947, EUR/USD closed at 1.0872. As of the evening of August 18, when this review was written, 50% of analysts predict a rise for the pair in the near future, 35% favour the dollar, and the remaining 15% maintain a neutral stance. Regarding oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 100% are leaning towards the US currency, but 25% of them indicate that the pair is oversold. Trend indicators show 85% pointing southward, while the remaining 15% look north. The nearest support levels for the pair lie in the range of 1.0845-1.0865, followed by 1.0780-1.0805, 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0620-1.0635, and 1.0525. Bulls will encounter resistance in the range of 1.0895-1.0925, then at 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, 1.1275-1.1290, 1.1355, 1.1475, and 1.1715.

Next week, the spotlight will be on the symposium of heads of major central banks in Jackson Hole, taking place from August 24 to 26. If the Federal Reserve Chairman, Jerome Powell, even hints at the imminent conclusion of the current rate-hike cycle in his speech on August 25, the DXY (Dollar Index) might turn downward. However, it's evident that currency pair dynamics will also depend on what leaders of other central banks say, naturally including ECB President Christine Lagarde.

Other notable events for the week include the release of US labour market data on August 22 and 23. On Wednesday, August 23, business activity indicators (PMI) for the United States, Germany, and the Eurozone will be disclosed. Additionally, on Thursday, August 24, statistics on durable goods orders and unemployment in the US will be made available.

GBP/USD: BoE's Indecision - A Disaster for the Pound

GBP/USD has oscillated within the 1.2620-1.2800 range for the past two and a half weeks, with neither bulls nor bears establishing a clear upper hand. Despite the Bank of England (BoE) recently raising interest rates, bullish momentum for the pound remains elusive.

There's growing concern among market stakeholders that an aggressive monetary policy tightening could further destabilize the UK's already fragile economy, which teeters on the brink of recession. In July, the unemployment rate rose notably by 0.2%, settling at 4.2%. More worryingly, youth unemployment surged by 0.9%, moving from 11.4% to 12.3%. Additionally, there was an increase of 25K in those claiming unemployment benefits compared to the prior month. This rise in unemployment can be largely attributed to the wave of business bankruptcies that initiated in 2021. This trend saw a stark acceleration in early 2022, matching levels witnessed only during the late 1980s crisis and the 2008 financial meltdown.

As per the latest data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on August 18, retail sales in the UK for July declined by 1.2% on a monthly basis, a more significant drop than the 0.6% seen the previous month. On an annual basis, there was a 3.2% contraction, compared to the 1.6% decrease observed in June.

The inflation data (CPI) released on August 16 indicates that despite dropping from 7.9% to 6.8% year-on-year (YoY), inflation remains notably high. Moreover, the core rate remained steady at 6.9%. The rising cost of energy could potentially lead to a further inflationary surge.

The market firmly believes that the Bank of England must take appropriate action in response. The central bank might need to continue increasing rates not only this year but potentially into 2024. However, as economists from Commerzbank suggest, if in the coming weeks the market gets the impression that the BoE is wavering in its commitment to tackle inflationary risks for fear of hampering the economy too much, it could have catastrophic implications for the pound.

GBP/USD closed at 1.2735 n Friday, August 18. Experts' forecast for the near future is as follows: 60% lean bullish on the pound, 20% are bearish, and the remaining 20% prefer a neutral stance. On the D1 oscillators, 50% are coloured red, indicating a bearish trend, while the other 50% are in a neutral gray. For trend indicators, the ratio of red to green is 60% to 40%, favouring the bullish side.

Should the pair move downward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2675-1.2690, 1.2620, 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair ascends, resistance will be met at 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, 1.3185-1.3210, 1.3300-1.3335, 1.3425, and 1.3605.

In terms of macroeconomic data, Wednesday, August 23 will be the "PMI day" not only for Europe and the USA but also for the UK, as business activity indicators in various sectors of the British economy will be released. And, of course, one cannot forget about the annual symposium in Jackson Hole.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 19, 2023, 10:29:05 AM
USD/JPY: Anticipating Currency Interventions

The release of the FOMC minutes and the rise in yields of 10-year U.S. Treasuries to levels not seen since 2008 propelled USD/JPY even higher, reaching 146.55. As noted by economists from Japan's MUFG Bank, "The dollar's strengthening has pushed USD/JPY into a danger zone where the risk of intervention to halt its upward movement is increasing." Colleagues from the Dutch banking group ING concur that the pair is now in the territory of currency interventions. "However," ING believes, "it likely lacks the necessary volatility to alarm Japanese officials."

Recall that the Ministry of Finance (MOF) had intervened in USD/JPY at levels above 145.90 last September. But currently, neither the Ministry of Finance nor the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are in a hurry to defend the domestic currency. Contrary to the U.S., Eurozone, and the UK, where inflation is on a decline (albeit at different rates), inflation in Japan is on the rise. On Friday, August 18, the country's Statistical Bureau published the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July, which stood at 3.3%, whereas a result of 2.5% (year-on-year) was anticipated.

Commerzbank analysts don't see much chance for the yen to appreciate again, even though the country's GDP is growing. (Preliminary data indicates growth in the second quarter was at 1.5% (year-on-year) compared to a forecast of 0.8% and a previous rate of 0.9%). On the contrary, there are concerns that under current conditions, the yen could weaken further if the Ministry of Finance doesn't take action to halt the decline. "Perhaps the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance are hoping the situation will shift once U.S. interest rates begin to drop again," Commerzbank economists suggest. "We also anticipate a weakening of the dollar at that point. However, that moment is still some time away. The only thing the Ministry of Finance will achieve with its interventions up until then is to buy time. In our view, going against the prevailing winds cannot succeed in strengthening the yen. It might work temporarily, but that's not a certainty.".

However, market participants are growing increasingly concerned that a weak yen might at some point prompt action from Japanese officials. As suggested by ING, the oversold status of the Japanese currency coupled with the threat of interventions will likely exacerbate any bearish corrections in USD/JPY. It was following such a correction, albeit a modest one, that the pair concluded the past week at a level of 145.37.

Regarding the near-term outlook, the median forecast from experts is as follows: An overwhelming majority (60%) anticipates the dollar to strengthen and expects USD/JPY to continue its upward trajectory. The remaining 40% anticipate a bearish correction. On the D1 oscillators, a full 100% are colored green, although 20% indicate overbought conditions. For the trend indicators, 80% are in green while 20% are in red. The nearest support level is situated at the 144.50 zone, followed by 143.75-144.04, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, and 137.25-137.50. Immediate resistance lies at 145.75-146.10, then 146.55, 146.90-147.15, 148.45, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.95.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the Tokyo region will be released on Friday, August 25. No other significant data releases pertaining to the state of the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: How Elon Musk Crashed the "People's Dollar"

(https://i.ibb.co/JvQS5BS/BTCUSD-21-08-2023.jpg)

From July 14, the primary cryptocurrency, and the digital asset market as a whole, have been under the pressure of a strengthening dollar. Clearly, when the weight on the BTC/USD scale tips towards the dollar, bitcoin becomes lighter. In fact, from August 11 to 15, it seemed as if the market had completely forgotten about cryptocurrencies, with the BTC/USD pair's chart thinly stretching from west to east, hugging the Pivot Point of $29,400.

Glassnode analysts noted at the time that the digital gold market had reached a phase of extreme apathy and exhaustion. Volatility metrics at the beginning of the week hit record lows, with the Bollinger Bands spread narrowing to 2.9%. Such low levels were only seen twice in history: in September 2016 and January 2023. "The market needs to take steps to...break the investor apathy," concluded Glassnode specialists.

Such actions were taken, though not necessarily in the direction investors would have preferred. The first move occurred on the evening of August 16 when BTC/USD dropped to $28,533. This decline was likely triggered by the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, as mentioned earlier. But that modest setback wasn't the end of it. The next significant drop occurred on the night of August 17 to 18. It can be described as a plunge into the abyss, with bitcoin reaching a low of $24,296. The crash came after The Wall Street Journal, citing undisclosed documents, reported that Elon Musk's SpaceX had liquidated its BTC holdings, accounting for a $373 million markdown in cryptocurrency. However, the report did not specify when exactly SpaceX had sold these coins. Still, such details aren't necessary to ignite panic in the market.

Several other events also added pressure to the quotations. For instance, a U.S. Federal Court granted the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) appeal against Ripple, casting doubt on a partial decision made in favour of Ripple a month prior. The ongoing series of legal claims by U.S. authorities against major cryptocurrency exchanges remains another negative influence.

Bitcoin's nosedive dragged the entire crypto market down with it, leading to a mass liquidation of open margin positions. According to Coinglass, over a 24-hour span, positions of more than 175,000 market participants were liquidated, resulting in traders' losses surpassing $1 billion.

The situation could have been much graver had it not been for a report from Bloomberg stating that the SEC was preparing to authorize the creation of the first futures ETFs for Ethereum. As a result, BTC/USD and ETH/USD corrected upwards, returning to levels seen two months prior. As a reminder, the market soared on June 15 after BlackRock filed an application to establish a spot bitcoin ETF. However, after the recent plunge, those gains were virtually erased.

Should we expect further declines? Notably, a trader and analyst known by the pseudonym Dave_the_Wave, renowned for his accurate forecasts, had warned that by the end of 2023, bitcoin could drop to the lower boundary of its Logarithmic Growth Curve (LGC), implying a roughly 38% drop from this year's peak. In such a scenario, the bottom would be around $19,700.

Another well-known trader, Tone Vays, did not rule out a drop in BTC to $25,000 (which has already occurred). In this case, Vays believes there's a high likelihood of a further long-term decline. From his perspective, the premier cryptocurrency is "teetering on the edge, and things look bleak." "The price needs to reverse immediately, I mean – this month. We cannot afford another month of decline; otherwise, panic will set in the market. I wouldn't be surprised if BTC trades below $20,000. Miners might even begin offloading their holdings, which is highly precarious," Vays cautions.

We have previously mentioned another expert, Michael Van De Poppe, founder of the venture company Eight, who has refuted claims of BTC's price dropping to the $12,000 mark. However, in his view, for bitcoin to return to active growth, it needs to surpass the $29,700 level. The next significant target for the coin would be $40,000.

In contrast to Michael Van De Poppe, Kevin Kelly, co-founder, and head of research at Delphi Digital, has already spotted early signs of a bull rally. However, this observation was made before the slump on August 18. According to Kelly, a standard crypto cycle starts when bitcoin reaches an all-time high (ATH), followed by an 80% decline. Roughly two years later, it rebounds to its previous ATH and continues climbing to a new peak. This sequence typically spans around four years.

Kelly believes this pattern isn't random but aligns with a "broader business cycle." He noted that bitcoin's price peak often coincides with the ISM manufacturing index, which currently appears to be in the final phase of its downturn. The current situation reminds Kelly of the market dynamics between 2015 and 2017.

He highlighted that the last two bitcoin halvings occurred roughly 18 months after the asset bottomed out and about seven months before it broke its historical peak. The next halving is anticipated in April 2024. After which, about six months later by the expert's estimates, the digital gold might reach its ATH. However, Kelly warned that there are no guarantees of this scenario unfolding. He also speculated about the possibility of a "false bottom."

A similar cyclical analysis was conducted by an analyst known as Ignas, predicting a bitcoin bull market in 2024. His calculation is based on the pattern that the primary cryptocurrency has showcased for many years: 1. An 80% dip from ATH, lowest point a year later (Q4 2022). 2. Two years for recovery and reaching the previous peak (Q4 2024). 3. Another year of price growth leading to a new ATH (Q4 2025).

According to Ignas, the crypto industry faced macroeconomic challenges in 2022, but the situation is now improving. The bitcoin halving in April 2024 might align with a global liquidity surge, fuelling the anticipated bull rally. Additionally, new use cases for bitcoin and the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, once approved by the SEC, will influence its price.

From a survey conducted by the popular blogger and analyst known as PlanB, 60% of respondents believe in a bull market's onset post-halving. PlanB himself theorizes that by the time of this event, BTC will be priced around $55,000. Signals from his bitcoin price prediction model, S2F, hint at the coin's potential movement towards this figure.

Robert Kiyosaki, investor, and author of the financial bestseller “Rich Dad Poor Dad” made another prediction. "Bitcoin is heading to $100,000," Kiyosaki believes. "The bad news: if the stock and bond market crashes, gold and silver prices will skyrocket. Worse, if the global economy collapses. Then bitcoin will be worth a million, gold can be bought for $75,000, and silver for $60,000. The national debt is too great. Everyone is in trouble," wrote Kiyosaki. But he added, just in case, "I hope I'm wrong."

Fittingly for a writer, Kiyosaki metaphorically called gold and silver "God's money" and bitcoin the "people's dollar". "I like bitcoin because we have a common enemy - the US federal government, the treasury, the Federal Reserve, and Wall Street. I don't trust them. If you trust, then collect dollars, and you'll get an IOU," he said.

It's worth noting that, in contrast to Robert Kiyosaki's stance, many investors have recently been gravitating towards the US dollar instead of the "people's currency." They view the dollar as a more reliable safe-haven asset. This shift is evident when comparing the DXY and BTC charts. At the time of this review, on the evening of August 18, the market has shown some signs of stabilization, with the BTC/USD trading close to $26,100. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies took a significant hit, narrowly maintaining above the psychological threshold of $1 trillion, registering at $1.054 trillion, down from $1.171 trillion just a week prior. Not surprisingly, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index also saw a decline, moving from the Neutral category into the Fear territory, marking a score of 37, a drop from last week's 51 points.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 23, 2023, 10:13:34 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co.com/Z83LbhF/Crypto-News-23-08-2023.jpg)

– The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has called for the regulation of cryptocurrencies rather than their outright ban. According to the bank's experts, a ban that's hard to enforce might hamper innovation. BIS also pointed out that cryptocurrencies are especially popular in emerging markets due to the volatility of local fiat currencies and challenges in accessing banking institutions. However, they could trigger severe sudden shifts in capital flows, threatening the financial stability of these nations.
Additionally, the BIS assessed cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Analysts believe that the introduction of such investment products will also increase risks, as it provides market access to a broader audience lacking financial expertise.
It's worth noting that in June, several major investment firms, including BlackRock, submitted applications to launch spot bitcoin ETFs. However, according to some experts, the current regulatory body is likely not to approve them, and the process could be postponed until 2024. Analysts opine that if such products receive approval in the US, the cryptocurrency market could access up to $30 trillion in capital, and the price of bitcoin might exceed $150,000 per coin.

– The Bitcoin Legal Defense Fund has filed a petition on behalf of 12 Bitcoin Core developers in the High Court of the United Kingdom, seeking to dismiss a lawsuit from Craig Wright, who they regard as the self-proclaimed creator of the first cryptocurrency, and his company Tulip Trading. The case dates back to February 2021, where Wright demanded access to two wallets containing approximately 111,000 BTC (~$2.86 billion at the time of writing), allegedly stolen due to the fault of Bitcoin Core employees. One of the addresses is associated with the hacking of the crypto exchange Mt.Gox.
The fund's lawyers insist that Wright, mockingly referred to as "pseudosatoshi," must prove his ownership of the bitcoins before the court makes a final decision. The document states, "Dr. Wright has a long history of fraudulent schemes, forgeries, and dishonesty (including in legal cases within this jurisdiction and internationally). [...] These proceedings are an attempt by Wright, through Tulip Trading, to use British courts as an instrument of fraud."
Craig Wright claims that he purchased the bitcoins at the end of February 2011 from the Russian exchange WMIRK. However, he has been unable to provide any evidence of this transaction. Furthermore, the Bitcoin Legal Defense Fund emphasized that if Wright truly owns the address containing 79,957 BTC, it would be tantamount to complicity in the hacking of Mt.Gox.

– An analyst known by the pseudonym Tolberti has predicted a continuation of the bearish trend in the bitcoin market and a decline in the cryptocurrency's value to $10,000. This forecast is based on the BTC price falling below the 200-week and 20-month moving averages (MAs), and the formation of a bearish flag on the chart, signalling the persistence of the negative trend.
According to the expert, the price of bitcoin will oscillate within a downward channel until it reaches a bottom around $10,000 by the time of the halving in April 2024. During the bearish trend, two significant corrections will occur, providing opportunities to profit from short positions.
Tolberti also noted the low demand for BTC and the weakness of digital gold relative to physical gold. Since reaching its all-time high of $68,917 in the fall of 2021, bitcoin has depreciated by more than 2.6 times. In contrast, the price of the precious metal has increased during the same period, reaching a historic value of $2,080 on May 4.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, noted that bitcoin's dominance is declining, increasing the likelihood of an altcoin rally. According to him, as soon as bitcoin's dominance tested the 200-week moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA), BTC's market share started to decline, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics.
The downward trajectory described by the analyst may persist in the coming months and could signal a temporary diversification in the cryptocurrency market as investors turn to other fast-profit instruments. However, if the leading cryptocurrency rises above the 200-week MA and EMA, it will lead to a restoration of bitcoin's dominance and a growth in its price.

– In the opinion of many investors and traders, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a classic indicator, serves as a valuable tool to gauge the condition of an asset. It fluctuates between 0 and 100, with values above 70 typically indicating overbought conditions, and values below 30 suggesting oversold conditions.
The current fall of bitcoin's daily RSI below the 20 mark (17.47 at its lowest) is comparable to the oversold conditions during the market crash in March 2020, when the entire financial landscape was gripped by fear and uncertainty.
Analysts and traders are now closely watching this RSI movement, as it could signal a potential bullish reversal in the BTC trend. Historically, extreme oversold values have often preceded significant price rebounds. However, this indicator must be approached with caution. RSI oversold levels can provide insights into potential price reversals, but they are not a guaranteed sign. Cryptocurrency markets are known for their unpredictability, and their direction can be influenced by a multitude of factors, among which political and macroeconomic factors play a huge role.

– Analyst Dave the Wave, who accurately predicted the cryptocurrency market crash in May 2021, believes that the current bear market for bitcoin will last at least until the end of the year. The expert used his own version of logarithmic growth curves, which allow for predicting bitcoin's macro-maximums and macro-minimums, filtering out medium-term volatility and noise. Currently, according to his calculations, bitcoin is trading at the lower boundary of the logarithmic growth curves but is still in the "buy zone." Dave the Wave does not rule out that bitcoin may decline a bit further, and by mid-2024 will rise to new highs above $69,000.

– According to popular analyst Benjamin Cowen, the current decline in the price of the first cryptocurrency may be far from final, and bitcoin will continue to fall. This bearish trend, in his opinion, aligns well with the current trend of the global economy.
Cowen also noted that a similar drop in bitcoin occurs every four years. "The fact is that every four years, in August or September, the year before the U.S. presidential elections, there's a correction in the American market. And bitcoin correlates with the indices of the U.S. stock market. If we look at 2023, we will see this as well. In 2019, bitcoin plummeted by 61%. In 2015, the decline was about 40%. In 2011, we saw a 'black swan' of 82.5%. So, every year before the halving and the American elections, we see a decline in bitcoin."

– Wall Street legend, analyst, and trader Peter Brandt already allowed for a drop in the bitcoin price back in May, as he identified a pattern on the price chart known as a "pennant" or "flag," indicative of "bearish consequences." Now, he has warned that bitcoin may break out of the upward trend that began in January 2023, as it approaches a critical price region. The expert clarified that a close below $24,800 will damage the daily and weekly charts and increase the likelihood that the bullish impulse in BTC will fail.

– Another analyst, publishing under the pseudonym Credible Crypto, noted that the current market scenario closely resembles what was observed in 2020. Back then, the leading digital currency rose in price from approximately $16,000 to $60,000 within a few months. The specialist stated that the market's flagship is now "taking a breather" after the price increase since the beginning of this year. According to the analyst, this is a normal correction. The current situation almost entirely reflects the price movement dynamics of bitcoin from March to August 2020. What's happening now, in his opinion, indicates that the goal is asset accumulation. Credible Crypto pointed out that bitcoin began a "parabolic rally" in 2020 precisely after such a phase. "The breakout from the accumulation range last time triggered the next step upward, causing BTC's price to soar." And according to the expert, this time bitcoin has twice as much time, or about 4 months, to do it again in 2023. Meanwhile, the analyst emphasized that his forecast will become invalid if the digital gold's quotations fall below $24,800. (This is the support level that Peter Brandt also identified as critical.)

– Since 2018, criminal groups from North Korea have conducted over 30 hacking attacks, stealing digital assets totaling around $2 billion, according to a report by TRM Labs. In just the first seven months of 2023, hackers from North Korea stole about $200 million in cryptocurrency. However, analysts note that criminal activity has significantly decreased compared to the previous year. At that time, according to the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation, the North Korean government-controlled group Lazarus carried out the largest hack in history, stealing $625 million from the crypto project Ronin Bridge.
The United Nations has repeatedly warned that North Korea continues to develop its nuclear program, and an important source of its funding is becoming the funds obtained from attacks on bitcoin exchanges.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 26, 2023, 06:08:30 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for August 28 – September 01, 2023


EUR/USD: Mr. Powell and Mrs. Lagarde - Much Talk, Little Substance

(https://i.ibb.co/PhNGNcS/EURUSD-28-08-2023.jpg)

Last week's business activity data from both sides of the Atlantic proved to be exceptionally weak. The euro came under selling pressure due to a decline in Germany's Services PMI from 52.3 to 47.3, which in turn pulled down the Composite Business Activity Indexes not only for Germany but for the entire Eurozone. The former dropped from 48.5 to 44.7, while the latter declined from 48.6 to 47.0. The GDP data for Germany for Q2, released on Friday, August 25, further confirmed that the economy of the united Europe is stagnating. On a quarterly basis, this metric stood at 0%, and on an annual basis, it showed a decline of -0.6%.

American macroeconomic data also failed to please investors. Preliminary business activity data for the United States published on Wednesday, August 23, fell short of expectations. Specifically, the Manufacturing PMI dropped from 49.0 to 47.0, and for the Services sector, it decreased from 52.3 to 51.0. The Composite Index also weakened from 52.0 to 50.4. (Note that a score above 50.0 indicates an improving economic situation, while below 50.0 signifies deterioration.) The published data for U.S. durable goods orders also turned out to be fairly weak. While they had increased by 4.4% in June, they unexpectedly fell by -5.2% in July.

Despite the fact that both European and American statistics were considered dismal by several experts, the DXY Dollar Index continued its bullish rally initiated six weeks prior, while EUR/USD maintained its southerly course. Not even the hawkish rhetoric from Deutsche Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel could bolster the euro. Nagel advocated for the continuation of interest rate hikes to control inflation. In contrast, Nagel's Portuguese colleague, Mario Centeno, called for caution to avoid negatively impacting the Eurozone economy.

This discord among members of the ECB's Governing Council, set against a backdrop of persistently weak economies in Q1 and Q2 and the potential for GDP contraction in Q3 of 2023, has sown doubt among market participants. These circumstances have led to scepticism about whether the regulator will proceed with further rate hikes in September.

The positions of U.S. representatives, speaking on the sidelines of the global central bank symposium in Jackson Hole, appeared more unified. Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Susan Collins and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker stated that the Fed could maintain interest rates at a stable level through the end of the year. However, they refrained from commenting on the timeline for a shift in monetary policy for the following year. Furthermore, according to Susan Collins, the resilience of the U.S. economy to aggressive monetary tightening suggests that the Fed may have to do more than it has already done. Her comments were interpreted as a clear hint towards further tightening of the American regulator's policy, leading market participants to speculate that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell might also adopt a relatively hawkish stance.

Two pivotal speeches were scheduled for the evening of Friday, August 25, at the Jackson Hole global central bank symposium. These addresses held the potential to either disrupt or amplify existing financial trends. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell was set to speak first, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde just two hours before the markets closed.

If Powell had confirmed that interest rates would remain unchanged through the year's end, it could have triggered selling pressure on the dollar. Conversely, the ongoing dollar rally might have accelerated if Powell had indicated the possibility of another rate hike. Data from the FedWatch Tool indicated a 39% likelihood of another 25-basis-point rate hike by the end of 2023 ahead of the speech.

In the previous year at Jackson Hole, Powell warned that any rate hikes would inflict "some pain" upon the U.S. economy, a statement that led to a rapid downturn in the U.S. stock market. This time, the U.S. equities market didn't wait for Powell's remarks. Major indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq saw sharp declines as early as August 24.

So, what did Jerome Powell say this time? Essentially the same message he delivered last year. Quote: "At last year's Jackson Hole symposium, my message was brief and direct. The substance of my remarks this year remains the same: The Federal Reserve's task is to bring inflation down to our 2% target, and we will achieve this," the Fed Chairman assured his audience. He then laid out two potential future scenarios: either maintaining the current rate or raising it. "While inflation has come down from its peak, which is a welcomed development, it remains too high," he said. "We are prepared to raise rates further if necessary and will maintain a restrictive policy stance until we are confident that inflation is sustainably moving toward our target level."

The head of the U.S. central bank also noted that core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation reached 4.3% in July, up from 4.1% the previous month. (July's PCE data will officially be released on August 31.) Overall, Powell's rhetoric was, as is often the case, fairly ambiguous: leaving both possible outcomes open for consideration.

Madam Lagarde's remarks were perhaps even more elusive. "Profound shifts in the functioning of the global economy [...] could lead to greater inflation volatility and more persistent price pressures," she stated. According to the ECB President, "at this stage, it is unclear whether all these various shifts will be permanent. [...] While these changes may still prove to be temporary, central banks need to be prepared for some of them to be more enduring."

In summary, while Powell presented two options, either maintaining or raising the interest rate, Madam Lagarde simply declared that interest rates will remain elevated for as long as necessary to combat inflation. As a result, the daily candle for EUR/USD, after some hesitation, returned to the central part of its range.

Starting the five-day trading week at 1.0872, EUR/USD closed it with an advantage for the dollar, settling at 1.0794. At the time of writing this analysis, on the evening of August 25th following the speeches at Jackson Hole by the heads of the Fed and the ECB, analysts were evenly split: 50% favoring a rise in the pair and 50% expecting a decline. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% are leaning towards the American currency and are coloured in red. However, 15% of these are signalling that the pair is oversold. Immediate support for the pair is located in the 1.0765-1.0775 range, followed by 1.0740, 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0620-1.0635, and 1.0525. Bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0845-1.0865, followed by 1.0895-1.0925, then 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, and 1.1275-1.1290.

The upcoming week will see the release of a significant amount of diverse economic data. The week will kick off on Tuesday, August 29, with the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index and the job openings data. On Wednesday, August 30, preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Germany will be released, along with U.S. labour market statistics and GDP figures. Thursday will bring preliminary CPI numbers for the Eurozone, retail sales data from Germany, as well as U.S. unemployment levels and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (Core PCE Price Index), a critical inflation indicator. On Friday, September 1, another substantial set of U.S. labour market information will be released, including the highly important Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data. The week will conclude with the release of the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI).

GBP/USD: Will the Rate Finally Rise?

Inflationary pressure in the United Kingdom is easing, although it remains the highest among the G7 countries. We have previously noted that while the annual rate of price growth has decreased from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), inflation remains elevated. Furthermore, the core CPI metric has remained steady at 6.9% year-on-year, just 0.2% below the peak set two months prior. A surge in energy prices threatens another inflationary spike.

These data and prospects exert significant pressure on the British currency. According to some analysts, they will push the Bank of England (BoE) toward further interest rate hikes. This will likely occur despite rising unemployment rates and the threat of an economic recession. This possibility cannot be ruled out, as preliminary business activity data released on Wednesday, August 23, showed that the UK's Manufacturing PMI dropped from 45.3 to 42.5 within a month, the Services PMI fell from 51.5 to 48.7, and the Composite PMI declined from 50.8 to 47.9. Thus, all three indicators fell below 50.0, signalling a sharp deterioration in the economic landscape.

A number of experts believe that the key interest rate could peak around 6% (currently at 5.25%). Due to accelerating inflationary pressures, the BoE may be compelled to maintain this peak level for an extended period, even in the face of pressure from populist politicians. Should this occur, the pound would have an opportunity to improve its position relative to the dollar.

However, concerning near-term prospects, specialists at Scotiabank do not rule out a further decline of GBP/USD to 1.2400 after breaking the 1.2620 support level. They add that "a rebound above 1.2600 could provide short-term support for the pound, especially considering that the selloff appears to be overstretched." Experts at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that the pair could find support around 1.2500 if the dollar strengthens. Their colleagues at Singapore's United Overseas Bank anticipate that GBP/USD will trade in a range of 1.2580-1.2780. "Going forward," they write, "as long as the pound remains below the strong resistance level [of 1.2720], it is likely to weaken to 1.2530 and possibly even to 1.2480."

After the Jackson Hole speeches on Friday, August 25, GBP/USD settled at 1.2578. The near-term consensus among experts is divided as follows: 60% are in favour of a bullish trend, 20% lean bearish, and the remaining 20% are neutral. On the D1 timeframe, 60% of the oscillators are painted red, with a third of these suggesting the pair is oversold; the remaining 40% are in a neutral grey zone. As for trend indicators, 85% are coloured red, suggesting a bearish bias, compared to 15% in green.

If the pair trends downwards, it will likely find support at various levels and zones: 1.2540, 1.2500-1.2510, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. Conversely, if the pair moves upwards, it will encounter resistance at 1.2630, 1.2675-1.2690, 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, and 1.3185-1.3210.

Regarding key economic data for the United Kingdom, no major releases are expected in the upcoming week. The focus will be on developments across the Atlantic. However, traders should note that Monday, August 28, is a bank holiday in the UK.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 26, 2023, 06:12:08 PM
USD/JPY: Higher and Higher

The Governor of the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Kazuo Ueda, is scheduled to speak in Jackson Hole on Saturday, August 26, by which time this review will already have been written. Frankly, we do not expect any groundbreaking statements from him. At this point, we can only rely on the comments from the country's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki. On Friday, August 25, he stated that he is "closely monitoring the impact of the Jackson Hole discussions on the global economy." He added that he cannot offer any specific details regarding the formation of an additional budget to finance economic measures.

It's worth noting that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently took a "revolutionary" decision, at least by its own standards, and shifted from rigid yield curve targeting of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) to a more flexible approach. However, it set certain boundaries, drawing a "red line" at a yield of 1.0% and declaring that it would carry out purchases to ensure that yields do not exceed this level. Less than a week after this move, the yield on JGBs reached nine-year highs, approaching the 0.65% mark. Consequently, the central bank had to intervene by buying these securities to prevent further increases.

In the Japanese media, Nikkei Asia believes that the budgetary expenses for such operations are expected to rise. Unlike the Finance Minister, they provided a specific figure: 110 trillion yen (over 753 billion dollars) for the year 2024. According to the Nikkei Asia report, the budget request is expected to be submitted by the end of August, meaning within the coming week.

As previously mentioned, the change in yield curve regulation for securities is indeed an extraordinary move for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). However, according to Japan's MUFG Bank, this is insufficient to trigger a yen recovery. Regarding interest rate hikes, MUFG believes that the Bank of Japan may only decide on its first increase in the first half of next year. Only then is a shift towards strengthening the national currency expected.

The yen had an opportunity to slightly strengthen its position last week. Responding to weak economic activity data, U.S. Treasury yields dropped by more than 1.5%. As is well-known, there is an inverse correlation between their yields and the yen. That is, if Treasury yields fall, the Japanese currency rises, and USD/JPY forms a downward trend. This is exactly what we observed in the middle of the week, on August 23, the pair found a local low at the 144.53 level.

However, the joy for yen investors was short-lived, as the pair reached a new high of 146.62 on August 25. As for the close of the trading week, it settled at the 146.40 level. According to strategists at Credit Suisse, the pair will eventually climb higher and reach its primary and long-term target at 148.57.

Regarding the near-term outlook, the consensus among experts appears as follows: A significant majority (60%) anticipate a downward correction for the pair. Meanwhile, 20% expect USD/JPY to continue its upward movement, and another 20% opted to abstain from commenting. On the D1 time frame, all trend indicators are coloured green, while 90% of the oscillators are also green (with 10% in the overbought zone); the remaining oscillators maintain a neutral stance. The closest support level lies at 146.10, followed by 145.50-145.75, 144.90, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, and 137.25-137.50. The immediate resistance is at 146.90-147.15, followed by 148.45-148.60, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high at 151.95.

There are no scheduled releases of any significant statistics concerning the state of the Japanese economy for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Shock is Not Over Yet

It appears that the crypto market is still reeling from the shock of August 17, when bitcoin took a sharp nosedive, hitting a low of $24,296. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which had long been in the neutral zone, moved into the fear territory. The leading cryptocurrency dragged the entire crypto market down with it, shrinking it by 10% from $1.171 trillion to $1.054 trillion, barely holding above the psychological level of $1 trillion. On August 17 alone, traders collectively lost over $1 billion across all instruments, marking the biggest loss since the crash of the FTX exchange.

This is a brief description of the recent tragedy. Now let's delve into the causes. We already highlighted the main theories in our last review, and they turned out to be accurate, although they now merit a more comprehensive analysis. Two major news events triggered the downturn. The first was the publication of the July meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve, where the majority of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) members expressed the possibility of raising the key interest rate in 2023. A higher rate boosts the yield on the dollar and government bonds, resulting in capital flight from riskier assets.

The second catalyst was an article in The Wall Street Journal, citing documents stating that Elon Musk's SpaceX had sold off its BTC holdings, writing off $373 million in cryptocurrency. Notably, the report did not specify when SpaceX sold these coins. However, as the ensuing panic showed, such details weren't necessary.

In another context, these two pieces of news might not have provoked such a violent reaction. However, prolonged market consolidation, low trading volumes in the spot market, and a large number of derivative positions opened by traders using leverage all contributed negatively. The fall in prices triggered a domino effect, leading to the liquidation of more than 175,000 leveraged positions in 24 hours, according to Coinglass data. Subsequently, the leverage ratio dropped to levels last seen in April.

Now, a week later, following the speech by the Federal Reserve Chair at Jackson Hole, it turns out that a rate hike might or might not happen. In other words, the Federal Reserve may put an end to its monetary tightening cycle and freeze the rate at its current level. This eliminates the first reason for panic. As for the second reason, it turns out that SpaceX had written off its crypto assets back in 2021-2022, rendering this "news" inconsequential.

However, what's done is done. Short-term BTC holders took the biggest hit: 88.3% of them are now in a losing position. This is a concern because these speculators are typically not known for their patience and could begin offloading their remaining crypto holdings, exerting further downward pressure on prices. On the other hand, it's worth noting that long-term holders (those holding for more than 155 days) took advantage of the situation to buy more coins, seeing it as an opportune time to bolster their portfolios.

After the crash on August 17, the voices advocating for a swift bitcoin rebound have become increasingly subdued, while the pessimists have gained momentum. However, even within their forecasts, the term "halving" is frequently mentioned, a concept upon which many influencers place great hopes. For example, an analyst known by the pseudonym Tolberti predicts a continuation of the bearish trend until bitcoin hits a bottom around $10,000 by the time of the halving in April 2024. This prediction is based on BTC's price falling below its 200-week and 20-month moving averages (MAs). Additionally, Tolberti notes the formation of a bearish flag on the chart, indicating a continued negative trend.

According to popular analyst Benjamin Cowen, the current downturn in the leading cryptocurrency may not be its last, and bitcoin will likely continue to fall. He believes that such a bearish trend is consistent with the current global economic trajectory. Cowen also pointed out that similar bitcoin declines happen every four years. "The fact is, every four years in August or September, the year before the U.S. presidential elections, there is a correction in the American market. And bitcoin correlates with U.S. stock market indices. If we look at 2023, we see this as well. In 2019, bitcoin plummeted 61%. In 2015, the decline was about 40%. In 2011, we saw a 'black swan' of 82.5%. That is, every year before the halving and American elections, we see a bitcoin decline," explained Cowen.

Dave the Wave, an analyst who accurately predicted the crypto market crash in May 2021, believes that the current bear market for bitcoin will last at least until the end of the year. The expert used his own version of logarithmic growth curves, which help forecast bitcoin's macro highs and lows while filtering out medium-term volatility and noise. According to his calculations, BTC is currently trading at the lower boundary of these logarithmic growth curves but is still in a "buy zone." Dave the Wave does not rule out that BTC may decline a bit more but anticipates that by mid-2024, specifically after the April halving, it will rise to new highs above $69,000.

According to a number of investors and traders, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a valuable tool for assessing the condition of an asset. The RSI oscillates between 0 and 100, with values above 70 typically indicating an overbought condition and values below 30 signalling an oversold condition.

The drop in bitcoin's daily RSI from August 17 to 22 below the 20 mark (hitting a low of 17.47) is comparable to the oversold levels seen during the market crash in March 2020, when the entire financial landscape was gripped by fear and uncertainty due to COVID-19. Analysts and traders are now closely monitoring RSI readings, as they could signal a potential bullish reversal in BTC's trend, although they are not a guaranteed indicator. Cryptocurrency markets are known for their unpredictability, and their direction can be influenced by a multitude of factors, among which political and macroeconomic elements play a significant role.

Wall Street legend, analyst, and trader Peter Brandt had already speculated a decline in bitcoin's price back in May. He identified a chart pattern known as a "pennant" or "flag," indicative of bearish implications. He now warns that bitcoin could break from the ascending trend that started in January 2023, as it approaches a critical price zone. The expert clarified that a close below $24,800 would damage both the daily and weekly charts and increase the likelihood that BTC's mid-term bullish momentum will falter.

Another analyst, publishing under the pseudonym Credible Crypto, noted that the current market scenario closely resembles what was observed in 2020. Back then, the leading digital currency's price rose from approximately $16,000 to $60,000 within a few months. According to the specialist, the market leader is now taking a "breather" after price gains earlier this year. He describes this as a normal correction. The current position almost fully mirrors the price dynamics of bitcoin from March to August 2020. What is happening now, in his opinion, suggests that the objective is asset accumulation.

Credible Crypto noted that bitcoin began its "parabolic rally" in 2020 right after such a phase. "Breaking out of the accumulation range last time triggered the next upward move, causing BTC's price to soar," said the expert. According to him, this time around, bitcoin has twice as much time, or about four months, to do it again in 2023. He emphasized that his forecast would be invalidated if the digital gold's quotations fall below $24,800: the same critical support level identified by Peter Brandt.

For the past week, the flagship cryptocurrency has been trading within the $25,500-26,785 channel around a Pivot Point of $26,000, suggesting there is no compelling reason for either its rise or fall. As of the time of writing this overview, on the evening of Friday, August 25, BTC/USD is trading at approximately $26,050. The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.047 trillion (compared to $1.054 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remains in the "Fear" zone at a score of 39 points (compared to 37 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on August 30, 2023, 11:50:29 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/1f942kt/Crypto-News-30-08-2023.jpg)

– The U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) have introduced regulations for the taxation of cryptocurrencies. Officials anticipate that the new rules will "close the tax gap and ensure that everyone is playing by the same set of rules." According to the proposed guidelines, crypto brokers will be treated in the same manner as traditional brokers, such as stockbrokers.
Under the new regulations, the category of "brokers" includes cryptocurrency platforms, payment systems, and certain crypto wallets. The IRS and the Treasury Department emphasized that decentralized exchanges also fall under these rules. These entities are required to conduct customer identification and, starting in 2025, provide tax reporting. The U.S. Treasury expects that the cryptocurrency industry will generate $28 billion in tax revenue over the next 10 years.

– The analyst known as A Chain of Blocks believes that the BRICS nations' intention to move away from the U.S. dollar should draw attention to Ripple (XRP), the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. According to him, the majority of the member countries view XRP as a viable global payment option capable of facilitating transactions between member states.
At the most recent summit of the group, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that BRICS countries would not use the U.S. dollar for transactions among themselves. However, India's Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Hardeep Singh Puri, expressed during the same summit that the U.S. dollar would continue to dominate international trade. Puri noted that talk of de-dollarization is premature at this stage. His statement is corroborated by statistical data. Despite calls from BRICS authorities to use national currencies, the dollar's share of international transactions processed through the SWIFT system reached a record 46.5% in July.

– The crypto exchange HashKey Group has submitted an application to the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for the issuance of cryptocurrency derivatives. If the regulator gives the green light, the exchange's clients will be able to trade futures on bitcoin and Ethereum.
To mitigate financial risks, novice traders will be restricted from executing certain trades. All clients will receive a warning if they invest more than 30% of their capital in cryptocurrencies, and their transaction limits will be reduced. Additionally, account balances can only be replenished using bank cards, creating challenges for residents of countries that have banned cryptocurrency trading.

– Tom Lee, co-founder and chief researcher at Fundstrat Global Advisors, predicts that due to the halving event, the bitcoin price will reach $100,000 per coin. In his view, halvings serve as catalysts for bitcoin price growth, as they reduce the supply of new coins and increase scarcity. Lee also considers factors such as rising demand for bitcoin from institutional investors, corporations, and retail buyers, as well as advancements in technological development and innovations within the bitcoin network. However, he acknowledges that bitcoin could experience significant price volatility on its path to reaching the targeted level.

– In contrast to Tom Lee, Nassim Taleb, a renowned writer, philosopher, and former trader, has a bearish outlook on bitcoin. He argues that bitcoin lacks intrinsic value and is purely a speculative asset, prone to extreme volatility and manipulation. He also criticizes bitcoin for not being an efficient medium of exchange, citing high transaction fees, slow transaction speeds, and low throughput. According to Taleb, bitcoin cannot compete with traditional currencies or other cryptocurrencies that possess superior technical attributes. He predicts that by the end of 2023, the price of bitcoin will drop to $0 per coin.

– British billionaire Jeremy Grantham, founder and chief strategist of GMO, one of the largest investment firms in the world, also has a bearish outlook on Ethereum and the cryptocurrency market overall. He believes that Ethereum is part of a global cryptocurrency bubble that will eventually burst. The billionaire compares cryptocurrencies to historical examples of bubbles, such as the Tulip Mania in the Netherlands in the 17th century, the South Sea Company in England in the 18th century, and the dot-com boom in the United States in the late 20th century. In his opinion, cryptocurrencies lack real value and are fueled by irrational enthusiasm and investor greed. Jeremy Grantham predicts that by the end of 2023, the price of Ethereum will drop to $100 per coin.

– Vitalik Buterin, co-founder and chief developer of Ethereum, has a contrasting view, believing that ETH could rise to $10,000 per coin. He bases his forecast on the idea that the leading altcoin will continue to develop and improve through new technological updates, the implementation of sharding, enhanced security and privacy, as well as the expansion of the DApps and smart contracts ecosystem. Buterin also believes that Ethereum will attract the attention of institutional investors who will use it as a means to diversify their portfolios and hedge against inflation.

– The Israeli government is shifting towards a more lenient approach to cryptocurrency regulation. To that end, a special research group has been created to study the regulation of DAOs (Decentralized Autonomous Organizations), which is also conducting public consultations on this matter until September 2023.
Currently, cryptocurrency in Israel is recognized as a financial asset, and any capital gains are taxed at a rate of 25%. If transactions involving cryptocurrency are classified as commercial, the tax rate could be much higher—up to 53%. Lawmakers appear to have recognized the severity of such regulations and are moving towards a more moderate approach: a bill exempting foreign residents from capital gains tax on the sale of cryptocurrency has already passed a preliminary reading in the Knesset, Israel's parliament.
As for mining, profits from this activity are subject to regular income tax (17%). Israeli mining company Kafkamining noted in its blog that conducting such a business in the country is entirely feasible.

– In August, PayPal launched its own stablecoin, PYPL, in partnership with Paxos on the Ethereum blockchain. This raised valid concerns about its demand for transactions due to Ethereum's high fees. Recently, analytics firm Nansen confirmed that PayPal's stablecoin has not yet gained traction among cryptocurrency users. Nansen speculated that the payment giant is likely targeting a different demographic altogether.

– According to Santiment data, only 5.8% of the total bitcoin volume is currently held on exchanges. This marks a historic low for the asset, a level not seen since December 17, 2017.
Analysts believe that several factors have influenced this trend, including a long-term holding strategy. Additionally, faith in bitcoin's potential as a reliable store of value is growing, while confidence in the safety of funds on cryptocurrency exchanges is diminishing. This shift is prompting individuals to opt for self-custody of their assets. Regulatory pressures on leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance, particularly issues with the SEC, have acted as a catalyst for this process. Due to regulatory scrutiny worldwide, bitcoin whales withdrew 5,000 BTC from the trading platform in just one minute.

– According to an analysis published on TradingView by TradingShot, bitcoin could reach the Fibonacci correction level of 0.86 at $50,000 by the end of 2023. The TradingShot analysis focuses on historical readings of the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator. Additionally, the analysts point to a support level established based on the last bear cycle's lowest peak. This level has shown resilience, consistently closing all monthly candles above it, with the exception of the sudden crash triggered by the coronavirus pandemic in March 2020.

– Despite BTC trading in a consolidated phase, demand for the leading cryptocurrency appears to be increasing. Over the past 12 months, Google Trends has shown a surge in searches for the keyword "buy bitcoin." Activity from bitcoin whales also corroborates this sustained interest in the primary cryptocurrency; transactions exceeding $100,000 are averaging around 57,400 transactions per week.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 03, 2023, 10:13:13 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 04-08, 2023


EUR/USD: No to Rate Hike, Yes to Dollar Appreciation!

Market participants continue to scrutinize the macroeconomic backdrop in the United States, attempting to discern (or speculate) whether the Federal Reserve will proceed with further increases to the federal funds rate. Following disappointing consumer confidence reports, weak ADP labour market data, and a slowdown in economic growth in Q2, market chatter has shifted towards the spectre of recession and the potential for a dovish pivot by the American regulator. U.S. economic growth currently remains above expectations. However, the revised GDP assessment still disappointed markets, as it fell short of initial projections.

On the other hand, household expenditures increased by 0.8% month-over-month, the highest rate since January. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, the inflation indicator most closely watched by the Federal Reserve, added 0.2% month-over-month for the second consecutive month. While the growth is modest, it is growth, nonetheless. The core PCE rose by 4.2% year-over-year, aligning with forecasts but exceeding the previous month's figure of 4.1%.

The labour market situation has transitioned from "consistently strong" to "potentially challenging." The number of open job vacancies, as measured by the JOLTS report, dipped to 8.827 million in July for the first time in a long while. For over a year, it had mostly stayed above 10 million, a threshold figure for the Federal Reserve in assessing the strength of the labour market. Additionally, the number of initial unemployment claims increased by 228,000 last week.

The data released on Friday, September 1st, further muddled market forecasts. On Thursday, all signs pointed to a cooling labor market. However, contrary to expectations of 170K, the number of new jobs created in the non-farm sector (NFP) rose significantly from 157K to 187K. In other words, the news is good. On the flip side, the unemployment rate also increased, from 3.5% to 3.8% (with a forecast of 3.5%). So, the news is bad. Additionally, the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) also increased, from a previous level of 46.4 and expectations of 47.0, to an actual figure of 47.6. Once again, the news is good. However, it's worth noting that a PMI above 50.0 indicates an improving economic situation, while below 50.0 suggests deterioration. So, is the news bad again?

Overall, these mixed indicators led to a divergent market reaction. On one hand, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) began gradually improving its position from Wednesday, August 30th, sharply accelerating its gains on Friday. On the other hand, the likelihood of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 19-20 dropped to 12%. Contributing to the reduced rate hike expectations were the somewhat divergent statements from Federal Reserve officials. We have already covered what Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker, and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said at the global central banks symposium in Jackson Hole in our previous review. Now, we add that Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic believes that rates are already at a restrictive level and that further hikes could inflict additional pain on the U.S. economy.

As for the Eurozone economy, the latest statistics indicate that inflation has ceased to decline, while the money supply contracted due to falling lending volumes. Contrary to Bloomberg experts' forecast of 5.1%, the year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained stable at 5.3%. In Germany, the region's largest economy, the monthly CPI also remained static at 0.3%.

In such a situation, one would expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue tightening monetary policy. However, the threat of stagflation appears to concern the regulator more than rising prices. Even such a hawkish figure as ECB Executive Board Member Isabel Schnabel confirmed that the economic outlook for the Eurozone is more dire than initially thought, suggesting that the region could be on the brink of a deep or prolonged recession.

Her comments are supported by the state of the labour market. The overall unemployment rate in the Eurozone remains stubbornly high, holding steady at 6.4%. In Germany, the rate has been gradually increasing on a quarterly basis, slowly reverting to levels seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

It appears that both regulators, the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are losing their appetite for further monetary tightening and are prepared to end their cycles of monetary restriction (or at least put rate hikes on hold). In such a scenario, it is logical that weaker economies stand to lose. Strategists at JP Morgan and Bank of America anticipate the euro to reach $1.0500 by the end of the current year, while BNP Paribas projects an even lower level of $1.0200.

Starting the five-day trading period at 1.0794, EUR/USD closed nearly where it began, settling at 1.0774. As of the time of writing this review, the evening of September 1, 50% of experts are bullish on the pair in the near term, 20% are bearish, and 30% have taken a neutral stance. Regarding technical analysis, nothing has changed over the past week. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe remain 100% in favour of the U.S. currency and are coloured red. Additionally, 15% still indicate that the pair is oversold. The nearest support levels for the pair are situated around 1.0765, followed by 1.0665-1.0680, 1.0620-1.0635, and 1.0515-1.0525. Bulls will encounter resistance at 1.0800, followed by 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, and 1.1275-1.1290.

Among the events to watch for the upcoming week, attention should be paid to the speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde on Monday, September 4. On Wednesday, September 6, retail sales data for the Eurozone will be released, along with the U.S. Services PMI figures. On Thursday, September 7, revised Q2 GDP figures for the Eurozone will be published, as will the customary U.S. initial jobless claims numbers. And rounding out the workweek, on Friday, September 8, we will learn about the state of inflation (CPI) in Germany, the main engine of the European economy.

GBP/USD: Will the Rate Not Increase After All?

Earlier in the EUR/USD overview, we highlighted the central banks' main question: what's more important – defeating inflation or preventing the economy from sliding into a recession? Although the annual inflation rate in the United Kingdom has dropped from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), inflation remains the highest among the G7 countries. Moreover, the core CPI indicator remained at 6.9% YoY, just as it was a month earlier. This is only 0.2% below the peak set two months prior. Additionally, rising energy prices pose a threat for new inflationary surges.

Such data and outlooks, according to several analysts, should have compelled the Bank of England (BoE) to continue raising interest rates. However, there's another factor tipping the scales in the opposite direction. August marked a further deepening of the downturn in the UK's manufacturing sector. Manufacturers in the country reported a weakening economic backdrop, as demand suffers due to rising interest rates, a cost-of-living crisis, export sector losses, and market outlook concerns. According to S&P Global, intermediate goods producers are particularly hard-hit — the B2B sector is facing the steepest decline in production volumes. This affects both new orders and staffing levels, which are being cut back.

The final Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August stood at just 43.0. The main PMI figure plummeted to a 39-month low, as production volumes and new orders contracted at rates rarely seen, except during major periods of economic stress, such as the global financial crisis of 2008-2009 and pandemic-related lockdown measures.

Against this bleak backdrop, survey results indicate that the country's policymakers will increasingly focus on concerns about the state of the economy rather than on the issue of raising interest rates. The Bank of England's Chief Economist, Huw Pill, stated that while there's no room for complacency regarding inflation, he himself would prefer to keep the rate steady for a more extended period. He announced that at the upcoming BoE meeting on September 21, he will vote to maintain the current rate at 5.25%. Following such a statement, the previously described rule comes into effect – if both regulators lose their appetite for further rate hikes, the weaker economy loses. In the case of the UK/US pair, the former turns out to be the weaker link.

We have previously mentioned that experts at Scotiabank do not rule out the possibility of GBP/USD falling further to 1.2400. Analysts at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that should the dollar strengthen, the pair may find support around 1.2500. Their colleagues at Singapore's United Overseas Bank anticipate that "as long as the pound remains below the strong resistance level of 1.2720, it is likely to weaken to 1.2530, and possibly even to 1.2480."

The pair closed last week at 1.2585. Looking at the near future, 40% of experts anticipate an upward correction, 20% foresee further dollar strengthening, and the remaining 40% expect sideways movement. Among the oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 90% are coloured red and 10% green. As for the trend indicators, the ratio between red and green is 85% to 15%, favouring red. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2560-1.2575, 1.2545, 1.2500-1.2510, 1.2435-1.2450, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In the event of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance at 1.2620-1.2635, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2980-1.3000, 1.3050-1.3060, 1.3125-1.3140, and 1.3185-1.3210.

As for significant events concerning the state of the United Kingdom's economy, particular attention should be paid to the Inflation Report hearings scheduled for Thursday, September 7.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 03, 2023, 10:16:04 AM
USD/JPY: Awaiting Currency Interventions

Generally speaking, if we review the week's outcomes, it can be stated that the Dollar Index (DXY) reclaimed all three pairs, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/JPY, on Friday, September 01, nearly returning them to where they began the five-day period. This occurred despite significant volatility. For instance, starting at the 146.40 yen mark per dollar, the Japanese currency reached a peak of 147.36, then declined to 144.44, with the final note being played at the 146.21 level.

Fresh statistics indicate that industrial activity in Japan is experiencing a downturn. This is evident from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector, which fell from 49.7 to 49.6 in a month, remaining below the threshold of 50 for the third consecutive month. The 50 mark separates expansion from contraction. Against this backdrop, USD/JPY maintains a bullish sentiment, although this could be disrupted by currency interventions from the Japanese authorities. Officials assure that they remain vigilant. For instance, Japan's Finance Minister, Sunaiti Suzuki, recently conducted another verbal (non-financial) intervention. On September 01, he stated that markets should determine currency exchange rates themselves, while emphasizing that sharp fluctuations are undesirable. He also mentioned closely monitoring currency movements. Whether such "incantations" will calm investors concerning the yen remains uncertain. It is plausible that concrete currency interventions, rather than verbal ones, might be required to provide evidence, much like what occurred last November.

In terms of the near-term outlook, much like the previous pairs, the majority of analysts believe that the DXY has gained sufficiently and that it might be time for it to retrace southward, at least temporarily. Regarding USD/JPY, 80% of analysts have voted in favour of such a trend reversal. The remaining 20% continue to hold faith in the dollar's potential for further pair growth. On the D1 timeframe, all 100% of trend indicators are painted in green. Among oscillators, 65% are in this state, while 10% are in red, and the remaining 25% have assumed a neutral position.

The nearest support level is situated in the range of 146.10, followed by 145.50-145.70, 144.90, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance lies at 146.50-146.60, followed by 146.90, 147.25-147.35, 148.45-148.85, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.90.

Friday, September 08, stands out in the economic calendar for the upcoming week as the day when the GDP figures for Japan's Q2 2023 will be released. There are no other significant statistical releases planned concerning the state of the Japanese economy for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Why Bitcoin Soared and Why It Fell Again

(https://i.ibb.co/7QQ2m7N/BTCUSD-04-09-2029.jpg)

The beginning of the past week was exceptionally dull. Its continuation could have been just as uneventful if not for Grayscale. Currently, Grayscale is the world's largest investment firm managing cryptocurrency assets. And now, it has won an appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The judges unanimously deemed the regulator's denial of converting the Bitcoin trust fund into a spot ETF "arbitrary and capricious." The legal battle lasted over a year, and unexpectedly on Tuesday, August 29, the court delivered such a definitive verdict. As a result, within three hours, Bitcoin surged from $26,060 to $28,122, a 7.9% increase, demonstrating the best growth rate in the last 12 months.

Perhaps, the explosive effect could have been even more impressive if not for the insiders. It turned out that someone did know about the court's decision in advance. Just before the court's announcement, this individual placed 30,000 Bitcoins, worth around $780 million, on the exchange. Selling such a volume of coins at the price peak is rather challenging due to low liquidity, thus causing a decline in their selling value. Consequently, the gains of BTC/USD gradually faded away, and it returned to where it started on August 29.

However, despite this decline, many analysts are confident that the current court decision will still have a positive impact on the market. Recall that this summer, eight major financial institutions have already filed applications with the SEC to enter the cryptocurrency market through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Among them are global asset managers like BlackRock, Invesco, and Fidelity. Earlier, the fact that the SEC had previously rejected all similar applications raised concerns. However, everything has changed now following the Grayscale case verdict.

Senior Bloomberg strategist, Eric Balchunas, has already raised his prediction to 95% for ETF approvals within 2024 and to 75% for the possibility of it happening in this year, 2023. According to various estimates, these new funds could attract between $5 billion to $10 billion of institutional investments within the first six months alone, undoubtedly pushing the quotations higher.

Co-founder of Fundstrat, Tom Lee, believes that if a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, the price could rise to $185,000. On the other hand, Cathy Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, forecasts a surge in the total cryptocurrency market capitalization to $25 trillion by 2030, representing an increase of over 2100%. Within this projection, ARK Invest's baseline scenario envisions BTC's price rising to $650,000 during this period, while the more optimistic scenario suggests roughly twice that.

The Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT, developed by OpenAI, has proposed its optimistic scenario. It envisions the primary cryptocurrency growing to $150,000 by 2024, $500,000 by 2028, $1 million by 2032, and $5 million by 2050. ChatGPT, however, outlined certain conditions. This growth could only materialize if: the cryptocurrency becomes widely adopted, bitcoin becomes a popular store of value, and the coin is integrated into various financial systems. If these conditions are not met, according to the AI's calculations, by 2050, the coin could be valued anywhere from $20,000 to $500,000.

In general, even the latest figure sounds promising for long-term holders of BTC, whose numbers continue to grow. Research from Glassnode reveals that this figure recently reached a record high, indicating the popularity of the hodling concept, a presence of certain optimism, and potential resistance to market fluctuations.

On the flip side, short-term speculators are exiting the market. According to CryptoQuant, the trading volume of bitcoins has hit its lowest level in five years. "Trading volumes are decreasing amidst a bearish trend, as retail investors depart," explains Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant. "Overall, the market remains lacklustre," asserts Gautam Chhugani, an analyst at Bernstein. "This trend isn't necessarily bearish, but participants are still uninterested in trading, as the market awaits catalysts."

Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision Group, one of the world's leading financial media platforms, noted that btc's 30-day volatility has decreased to 20 points. However, based on his observations, historically, such low volatility within two to four months led to a robust surge in the first cryptocurrency. According to the analyst known as Credible Crypto, for a truly potent surge, the bulls need to push the first cryptocurrency's price above the key zone of $29,000-$30,000. For now, a significant portion of traders anticipates a decrease in BTC to more favourable buying levels. Yet, when the price surpasses $30,000, according to Credible Crypto, the Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) phenomenon will come into play, propelling quotations upwards.

To what extent can the price of the flagship cryptocurrency fall in the current situation? September historically has not been favourable for bitcoin. From 2011 to 2022, BTC on average lost about 4.67% of its value during this period.

Analyst Justin Bennett believes that the bitcoin price could potentially drop to $14,000. This level acted as strong support from 2018 to 2020. Bennett supports his forecasts with a chart showing that the flagship crypto asset has exited an ascending channel that it had been in for about ten months. Bitcoin failed to overcome resistance in the range of $29,000-$33,000, which led to this breakout. Furthermore, a global economic recession could exacerbate the decline. According to Bennett, since the S&P 500 stock index couldn't replicate the 2022 record of 4,750 points, it could now potentially lose a substantial percentage of its value.

However, despite the aforementioned viewpoints, September could still prove favourable for long-term investments within the "buy on dips" strategy. Bloomberg's Senior Analyst, Mike McGlone, compared metrics of the first cryptocurrency to the stock market and concluded that even a drop to $10,000 wouldn't significantly shake the coin's positions. As an example, the expert cited corporate giant Amazon's stocks, which yielded over 7,000% returns in the last 20 years. Yet, BTC far surpasses this figure having grown around 26,000% since 2011. "Even a return to the $10,000 mark would maintain an unprecedented asset performance," notes McGlone. He emphasizes that bitcoin's trajectory of "mainstream migration" is also crucial, as exchange-traded funds and other instruments characteristic of the traditional market emerge.

In addition to the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the upcoming halving could also influence the coin's growth. Thanks to these factors, according to TradingShot analysts, BTC/USD could rise to the $50,000 mark by the end of this year. However, at the time of writing this review on the evening of Friday, September 1st, it's trading around $25,750. The overall cryptocurrency market capitalization stands at $1.048 trillion ($1.047 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Fear zone at a reading of 40 (39 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 04, 2023, 10:24:53 AM
August 2023 Results: NordFX Trading Leaders Opt for XAU/USD Once Again

(https://i.ibb.co/M9RnRsX/August-Results-2023.jpg)

NordFX Brokerage has summarized the trading performance of its clients for August 2023. The company has also evaluated its social trading services, CopyTrading and PAMM, as well as the profits earned by its IB partners.

- In August, a client from Western Asia, with account number 1692XXX, ascended to the top "golden" tier of the honour podium. This individual earned 85,598 USD through trades involving gold (XAU/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- Their compatriot, with account number 1683XXX, took second place, also trading in gold (XAU/USD) and earning 44,329 USD from these transactions.

- Completing the top three is a trader from South Asia, with account number 1691XXX, who earned a profit of 43,458 USD. Similar to the first two cases, this impressive result was achieved through trades involving XAU/USD.

The situation in NordFX's passive investment services is as follows:

- In August, the signal Ok my trade within the CopyTrading startups caught attention. In just 10 days, it delivered a 510% profit. What's more significant is that its maximum drawdown did not exceed 16%. Given the aggressive trading strategy, this can be considered an accomplishment. However, it's important to reiterate that aggressiveness and a short lifespan are key risk factors that require special caution when subscribing to such signals.

- In the PAMM service, we continue to monitor the Trade and Earn account. While it was opened over a year ago, it remained dormant until awakening in November. As a result, over the past 10 months, it has achieved a return of 175% with a relatively low maximum drawdown of less than 17%.

The top three IB partners of NordFX received the following rewards in August:

- The highest commission of 12,328 USD was awarded to a partner from Western Asia, with account number 1645XXX, who has led the top three for four consecutive months. Over this period, they have earned just under 45,000 USD in total;

- Following in second place is a partner from South Asia, with account number 1507XXX, who received 9,324 USD;

- Finally, rounding out the top three is another partner from South Asia, with account number 1531XXX, who received a reward of 5,512 USD.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 06, 2023, 01:31:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/qyCkTjj/Crypto-News-06-09-2023.jpg)

– 9% of Nigeria's population is aware of the existence of digital assets, surpassing the United States, which has an awareness level of 95%. Of these, 76% have owned or currently own cryptocurrencies, with the most popular coins being bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance Coin, and Dogecoin. The instability of the national currency has driven Nigerians toward the acquisition of digital assets, according to a study by ConsenSys.
Among Nigerian respondents, 70% stated that they understand the fundamental concepts of blockchain technology. They are followed by citizens of South Korea (63%), South Africa (61%), Brazil (59%), and India (56%). Experts note that the level of awareness about this technology is much lower in Europe and the United States compared to African countries. Meanwhile, only half of the surveyed Americans are using digital assets.

– A People's Court in China has declared that cryptocurrency falls under the category of legally protected property. According to the verdict, virtual assets have economic characteristics and should therefore be classified as property that is legally protected.
In light of this, legal experts have put forward a set of measures aimed at combating criminal activities in the realm of cryptocurrency. They have also underscored the need to harmonize criminal and civil laws to address the challenges associated with asset confiscation.

– In a recent Twitter post titled "What's Happening with XRP," Ripple's Chief Technical Officer, David Schwartz, suggested that this particular altcoin could become the global reserve currency. According to Schwartz, a significant portion of the world has already moved away from the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency. Every nation would prefer its own currency to take this position and would not want a rival country's currency to do so. Schwartz believes that this situation could lead to the world transitioning to a digital currency like XRP, which is not controlled by geopolitical competitors.

– The artificial intelligence platform PricePredictions has calculated a projected bitcoin price of $26,228 for September 30. The forecast is based on several key technical indicators, including Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), among others.

– In a TradingView publication, an analyst using the pseudonym Tolberti has indicated that the recent fluctuations in bitcoin's price could serve as the year's "bull trap." Tolberti notes that a "Head and Shoulders" pattern, typically a bearish indicator, appears to be forming on the current BTC chart.
Additionally, Tolberti cites several key metrics that bolster his bearish outlook. A particularly telling indicator is bitcoin trading below its 200-week moving average (MA), which is traditionally a sign of extended bearish sentiment. He suggests that bitcoin's value might plummet to $10,000, with a potential market turnaround perhaps occurring as late as March 2024.

– Alistair Milne, the Chief Investment Officer of the digital currency fund Altana, believes that the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 without the approval of spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States. In his view, the ETF topic merely distracts market participants. It's worth noting that in June, when BlackRock and several traditional financial organizations submitted ETF applications to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the flagship cryptocurrency experienced its most significant growth in over a year, surpassing the $30,000 mark. However, this upward momentum was short-lived.
Milne is confident that issues in the U.S. banking sector, stabilization of risk assets following the completion of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and increasing profitability in the crypto-mining sector will drive bitcoin's price upward.

– According to analysts at Cointelegraph, the value of "digital gold" could experience a significant drop in the coming weeks. This forecast is based on the bearish trends emerging in bitcoin derivatives. The BTC price chart leaves little doubt that investor sentiment has not improved following Grayscale's victory over the SEC on August 29, 2023. Consequently, experts anticipate that the leading cryptocurrency's value could decline to $22,000 in the near future.
Cointelegraph analysts believe that the delay in launching spot Bitcoin ETFs has left a negative impact on the market. Furthermore, many experts link market troubles to the U.S. regulatory actions against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Multiple sources suggest that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is likely to level charges against the world's largest trading platform and initiate a criminal investigation, focusing on allegations related to money laundering and violation of sanctions against Russian companies.
Currently, market participants are in a state of limbo, unsure of what to expect. This regulatory uncertainty is tipping the scales in favour of the bears. Fear and doubt reign in the derivatives market, creating favourable conditions for those Currency carry trade on a decline.

– Renowned blogger and analyst Lark Davis has stated that the bitcoin halving scheduled for April 2024 could lead to a 500-600% increase in the cryptocurrency's price, potentially pushing it to around $150,000 or even $180,000. According to additional data from the expert, the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs could attract about $20-30 billion in "new money." Davis asserts that this influx of capital would allow investors to purchase nearly half of all circulating bitcoin on centralized global exchanges (CEX).
Lark Davis also shared a chart comparing the price trajectory of physical gold. He noted that when the first ETF for the precious metal was approved in the U.S. markets, its price initially dipped. However, it subsequently rallied, adding over 110% to its peak value. Davis opined that a similar scenario could unfold for bitcoin.

– At the end of August, the monthly chart for digital gold indicated an exit from the overbought zone according to the Stochastic Oscillator, signalling potential disappointment for bitcoin bulls. This observation was made by experts at Fairlead Strategies. According to the analysts, such a signal often indicates the passing of a local peak. They pointed out that similar scenarios occurred under comparable circumstances at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021.
"The decline in the Stochastic Oscillator suggests that the process of establishing a bottom could be prolonged, especially considering the looming Ichimoku cloud serving as resistance (~$31,900)," the report stated.

– Popular analyst and crypto-millionaire William Clemente has stated that interest in the crypto industry has significantly waned recently. According to his observations, the total trading volume of digital assets has dropped to its lowest levels since 2020. Additionally, based on Google search statistics, people are searching for information on bitcoin and cryptocurrencies far less frequently, reaching multi-year lows.
Clemente also highlighted another sign of market participants' apathy. According to him, indicators for realized and implied volatility, as well as the Bollinger Bands' divergence on a weekly timeframe, are near record lows.
Another well-known trader and analyst going by the pseudonym DonAlt concurred with Clemente. He noted that this is precisely what failure looks like but ironically emphasized that there's no turning back now.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, noted that the markets appear unstable and are generating many doubts. Bitcoin's dominance level is starting to decline, and the majority of altcoins in trading pairs with BTC are beginning to regain their positions. This signifies interest in this asset class rather than a lack of it. Van De Poppe emphasized that this traditionally occurs 8-10 months before a BTC halving.

– Arthur Hayes, co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, stated that bitcoin has been in a bullish trend since March 2023 and is expected to experience a new surge over the next 6-12 months. Hayes believes that the uptrend was triggered by the Federal Reserve's $25 billion banking sector stabilization program in light of the "rescue" of Silicon Valley Bank. According to Hayes, this situation has prompted traders to focus on assets with limited supply, like bitcoin. While this currently only involves a small portion of market participants, their numbers will continue to grow, he is convinced.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 10, 2023, 01:24:21 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 11 - 15, 2023


EUR/USD: September 13 and 14 - Key Days of the Week

For the eighth consecutive week, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is rising, while EUR/USD is declining. The currency pair has retreated to levels last seen three months ago, settling in the 1.0700 zone. It was only the dollar bulls starting to lock in accumulated gains on Friday, September 8, that prevented further declines.

The fundamental backdrop continues to favour the U.S. currency. Business activity, as measured by the Services PMI, shows consistent growth; it rose from 52.7 to 54.5 against a forecast of 52.5. Additionally, data released on September 8th indicated that the U.S. labour market is performing at least adequately. The number of initial jobless claims came in at 216K, lower than both the forecast of 234K and the previous figure of 229K.

On the same day, European statistics appeared decidedly weak. For instance, in Q2, the EU economy grew by a mere 0.1%, despite Q1 growth and market expectations being at 0.3%. In annual terms, with a forecast of 0.6%, the actual growth rate was also lower at 0.5%. Germany's industrial production volume decreased by -0.8% in July, compared to a forecast decline of -0.5%. Meanwhile, despite efforts to reduce it, inflation in Germany remains stable. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published on Friday, September 8, stayed at 0.3% month-over-month (m/m) and 6.4% year-over-year (y/y).

According to many analysts, the European Central Bank (ECB) finds itself in a predicament. On one hand, to combat inflation, interest rates need to be raised; on the other hand, to assist the economy, they should be lowered. It is quite possible that in its meeting on Thursday, September 14, the regulator will take a pause and leave the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. Currently, the likelihood of such a decision is estimated at 35%.

As for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve scheduled for September 20th, market participants are confident that the regulator will also leave interest rates unchanged. However, the reason in this case is different. While the Eurozone teeters on the edge of recession and stagflation, the U.S. is undergoing a "soft landing." As assured by John C. Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, "monetary policy is in a good place." Of course, the balance could tip one way or the other after inflation data for the United States becomes available on Wednesday, September 13.

That said, a pause in September does not mean the end of the monetary tightening cycle. According to CME FedWatch, the odds of a 25 basis point (b.p.) rate hike in November are at 37%. Even if this hike doesn't materialize, it is unlikely to harm the dollar. Much of the negative sentiment is already priced into the USD, as markets have long been Currency carry trade on a recession in the U.S. economy and a corresponding easing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Now, it has become clear that a dovish shift is unlikely, and the key interest rate will, at a minimum, remain at the peak level of 5.5% for an extended period.

EUR/USD pair began its descent from a high of 1.1275 eight weeks ago, on July 18, ending the past trading week at 1.0699, shedding 576 points. As of the evening of September 8, when this review was written, 45% of experts predict a rise for the pair in the near term, another 45% foresee a decline, and 10% hold a neutral stance. Regarding technical analysis, nothing has changed over the past week. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe continue to be 100% in favor of the U.S. currency and are coloured red. However, already 30% of the most recent indicators signal the pair is oversold. Immediate support for the pair is located around 1.0680, followed by 1.0620-1.0635, 1.0515-1.0525, 1.0480, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0730-1.0745, followed by 1.0780-1.0800, 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, 1.1045, 1.1090-1.1110, 1.1150-1.1170, 1.1230, and 1.1275-1.1290.

It's essential to note Wednesday, September 13 in the calendar for the upcoming week, when consumer inflation data (CPI) for the U.S. will be released. On Thursday, September 14, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce its decision on interest rates. Of course, the subsequent central bank leadership press conference will also be of great interest. On the same day, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. will traditionally be published, along with retail sales data and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the country.

GBP/USD: Peak Rate Continues to Lower

At present, the central question for many central banks, including the Bank of England (BoE), is what takes precedence: taming inflation or preventing the economy from slipping into recession? Indeed, the British economy seems to be heading in the latter direction. The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the country's manufacturing sector in August stood at a mere 43.0, with the headline PMI dropping to a 39-month low. According to recent data, the PMI in the services sector has declined to 49.5, dipping below the 50.0 threshold into contraction territory for the first time since January.

So, what about inflation? Although the annual inflation rate in the UK decreased from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), it remains the highest among G7 countries. Moreover, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained at 6.9% year-over-year, only 0.2% below the peak set two months earlier.

According to the latest survey conducted by the Bank of England's Monthly Decision Maker Panel (DMP) on Thursday, September 7th, British businesses anticipate that the CPI will decline to 4.8% year-over-year within the next year. It is worth noting that the regulator itself aims to bring the CPI closer to 5.0% by the end of this year.

Surveys indicate that under the current circumstances, the country's leadership is prioritizing economic salvation over the battle against inflation. Huw Pill, the Bank of England's Chief Economist, stated that while there is no room for complacency concerning inflation, he would prefer to keep the interest rate stable for a longer period. He added that in the upcoming BoE meeting on September 21, he will vote to maintain the rate at its current level of 5.25%.

According to Reuters, markets are currently pricing in an 85% likelihood that the BoE's final interest rate, after one or two hikes by year's end, will be 5.75%. This projection is significantly lower than July's, when a peak rate of 6.5% was anticipated. It is worth noting that the future 5.75% for the pound is just 25 basis points higher than the current 5.50% for the dollar, a gap that clearly does not favour the British currency. Moreover, the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate could potentially rise by an additional 25-50 basis points.

GBP/USD closed last week at a rate of 1.2465. Economists from Singapore's United Overseas Bank Limited (UOB) anticipate that the pair may test strong support at the 1.2400 level over the next 1-3 weeks. However, they believe that short-term oversold conditions could decelerate the pace of further decline. Expert forecasts are evenly divided, much like those for EUR/USD: 45% predict a northward correction, 45% foresee a continued southward trend, and the remaining 10% point to an eastward move. Among the oscillators on the D1 chart, 100% are coloured in red, with 15% indicating oversold conditions. Trend indicators show a 90% to 10% ratio favouring red. If the pair trends downward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2445, 1.2370-1.2390, 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In case of upward movement, resistance can be expected at levels 1.2510, 1.2560-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.2995-1.3010, 1.3060, and 1.3125-1.3140, as well as 1.3185-1.3210.

In terms of key economic data for the United Kingdom, the unemployment figures set to be released on Tuesday, September 12, are of particular interest. Additionally, the country's July GDP numbers, which will be disclosed on Wednesday, September 13, are also noteworthy.

USD/JPY: Bulls Wary as Bears Anticipate Currency Interventions

(https://i.ibb.co/XWVQYfx/USDJPY-11-09-2023.jpg)

As for Japan, the question of "economy or inflation" is not up for debate; the answer is unequivocally the economy. On Wednesday, September 6, Kyodo News, citing anonymous sources, reported that the Japanese government apparently plans to roll out new economic stimulus measures in October. Reuters, quoting Japanese media outlets, identified the primary goals of the stimulus as "supporting wage increases within companies and mitigating electricity costs." "It is expected that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida will task [the responsible parties] with preparing a draft […] to allocate additional budget resources for these measures," the report stated. Reuters also presented an analysis indicating that the country's debt burden will increase due to the announced stimulus measures. According to estimates, Japan's debt, which is already twice its GDP, will hit a record level of 112 trillion yen (760 billion dollars) in the next fiscal year.

It becomes clear that under such circumstances, inflation will continue to rise. Meanwhile, USD/JPY continues its upward movement, reaching a level of 147.86 on September 7, marking a 10-month high. On Friday, September 8, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated once again that the country's authorities "are not ruling out any options to combat excessive currency fluctuations." However, no market participants believe in a rate hike anymore, given that it has been stuck at a negative level of -0.1% for many years. Concerns are growing among investors that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may finally resort not to verbal, but to actual currency interventions, as was the case last fall. According to the same Reuters report, Japan's chief currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stated that Japanese banking authorities are considering the possibility of intervention to put an end to "speculative" movements.

Against the backdrop of the DXY Dollar Index holding around 105.00, its highest level since March, only currency interventions by the Bank of Japan could help the yen strengthen its position somewhat. However, according to some analysts, the main reason for the yen's weakness lies in the disagreements among the country's politicians regarding its monetary policy.

The final point of the past trading week was marked at 147.79. Strategists at UOB Group anticipate that the continuation of the upward momentum could push USD/JPY towards an assault on the 149.00 level in the coming weeks. As for the consensus forecast, only 20% of analysts still believe in the dollar's potential and the pair's further growth. Bears have gained the favour of 80%. (It's worth noting that even a 100% consensus does not guarantee the accuracy of the forecast, especially when it comes to the Japanese yen.) As for the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, all 100% are coloured green, although 40% of these are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support level lies in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 146.10, 145.55-145.70, 145.30, 144.90, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 139.85, 138.95-139.05, 138.05-138.30, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance stands at 148.45, followed by 148.85-149.10, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 peak at 151.90.

No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Fear and Doubt in the Market

For the third week, the market has been in a state of apathy. According to observations by crypto-millionaire William Clemente, the total trading volume for digital assets has fallen to its lowest levels since 2020. The BTC/USD chart on the H1 and H4 timeframes mostly resembles an ant trail, where these insects move in a thin, unbroken line.

The situation was invigorated by a court decision in the Grayscale case. This world-leading investment firm in cryptocurrency asset management won an appeal against the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As a result, on August 29, bitcoin surged from $26,060 to $28,122 within three hours, showing its best growth rate in the last 12 months. However, the excitement was short-lived, as the SEC struck back by deciding to postpone until October the consideration of applications for spot bitcoin ETF registrations. Consequently, the flagship cryptocurrency returned to the support zone of $25,500.

Turning to technical analysis, this support corresponds to the Fibonacci level of 0.382. A break below this level could potentially lead to a fall to $21,700: the Fibonacci level of 0.618. Experts from Fairlead Strategies note that at the end of August, the digital gold's monthly chart confirmed an exit from the overbought zone on the stochastic oscillator, which could signal disappointment for bitcoin bulls. Analysts believe that this formed signal often indicates the passing of a local peak, as seen at the end of 2017 and the beginning of 2021. "The decline [in the stochastic oscillator] suggests that the bottom formation process may be prolonged. This is especially true when considering the Ichimoku cloud overhead, which serves as resistance (~$31,900)," said the report from Fairlead Strategies.

According to an analyst going by the nickname Tolberti, the BTC chart is forming a "head and shoulders" pattern, which threatens further price declines. Another argument supporting the bearish trend is that bitcoin is trading below its 200-week moving average (MA). As a result, Tolberti speculates that the leading cryptocurrency could fall to $10,000, with a possible reversal occurring in March 2024.

Negative forecasts are also coming from analysts at Cointelegraph. The fact is that bitcoin derivatives have started to show bearish tendencies. The BTC price chart leaves no doubt that investor sentiment has not improved following Grayscale's victory. Therefore, experts anticipate that the leading cryptocurrency's quotes could decline to $22,000 in the coming weeks.

Cointelegraph believes that not only the postponement of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs is pressuring the market, but also U.S. regulatory actions against exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. Multiple sources claim that the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is likely to charge the world's largest trading platform and initiate a criminal investigation. The allegations involve money laundering assistance and violation of sanctions against Russian companies.

Currently, market participants are in a state of limbo and are uncertain about what to expect. Regulatory uncertainty is favouring the bears. The derivatives market is ridden with fear and doubt, which benefits those Currency carry trade on a decline, according to Cointelegraph.

We have previously noted that powerful catalysts for market growth in the medium and long term could be the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs and the bitcoin halving event scheduled for April 2024.

Recall that this summer, eight major financial institutions submitted applications to the SEC to enter the cryptocurrency market through spot bitcoin ETFs. Among them, in addition to BlackRock, are global asset managers like Invesco and Fidelity. According to some estimates, in the first six months after the ETF launch, new demand for the cryptocurrency could amount to $5-10 billion, and the value of BTC could rise to $50,000-120,000 per coin.

Despite the SEC's decision to postpone the review of applications until mid-autumn, the chances of approval are quite high. After all, BlackRock is not some small fish but a global investment giant, and it is in good standing with U.S. authorities. It's worth mentioning that when the Federal Reserve decided in 2020 to buy securities through ETFs to support the American economy, half of the volume went to BlackRock funds.

Interestingly, the company itself highly estimates the chances of application approval. This is evident from its purchasing of both bitcoin and shares of mining companies. In mid-August, it became known that BlackRock acquired shares of four major mining companies, spending a total of over $400 million. Larry Fink, BlackRock's CEO, has referred to bitcoin as digital gold and an international asset that potentially offers inflation protection.

Alistair Milne, the Chief Investment Officer of the Altana Digital Currency Fund, believes that the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 even without the approval of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). In his view, the ETF topic merely distracts market participants. Milne is confident that issues within the U.S. banking sector, the stabilization of risky assets following the end of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and increasing profitability in the crypto-mining sector will drive the coin's price upward.

Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of the crypto exchange BitMEX, also thinks that due to issues in the banking sector, bitcoin is poised for substantial growth. According to him, the bull phase began after the Federal Reserve initiated a $25 billion program to stabilize the banking sector, notably including the "rescue" of Silicon Valley Bank. Hayes asserts that this situation has prompted traders to focus on assets with limited supply, such as bitcoin. While only a small fraction of market participants are currently taking this into account, he is convinced that their number will increase, and over the next 6-12 months, the leading cryptocurrency will experience a new surge.

As for the second driver, the halving, well-known blogger and analyst Lark Davis believes that this event could lead to a 500-600% increase in bitcoin's current price, potentially reaching around $150,000 to $180,000. However, with more than seven months to go before the halving, there are two upcoming events that could significantly influence investors' appetite for risky assets. These are the publication of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday, September 13, and the Federal Reserve meeting on September 20.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 8, BTC/USD is trading at around $25,890. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.043 trillion, slightly down from $1.048 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin remains in the 'Fear' zone, registering at 46 points, up from 40 points a week earlier, though it is edging closer to the 'Neutral' zone.

In conclusion, another forecast comes from Artificial Intelligence. Utilizing several technical indicators, including Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and others, the AI on the PricePredictions platform has calculated that the price of bitcoin should reach $26,228 by September 30. We don't have long to wait to see whether such intelligence can be trusted.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 13, 2023, 01:19:59 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/vP3pfQV/Crypto-News-13-09-2023.jpg)

– Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Gary Gensler, addressed the United States Senate, stating that the vast majority of cryptocurrencies fall under the jurisdiction of his agency. Consequently, all market participants, including exchanges, brokers, dealers, and clearing agencies, must mandatorily register with the SEC.
Gensler drew parallels between the current crypto industry and the tumultuous years at the beginning of the 20th century when securities market legislation was still in development. During that era, the agency implemented a series of stringent enforcement actions to regulate the industry, and many cases ended up in court. Similar measures are needed today. They are not only intended to deter entrepreneurs but also to safeguard investors, as perceived by the head of the SEC.

– Starting from November 1, 2023, Sarah Breeden will assume the position of Deputy Governor at the Bank of England. According to her current statements, cryptocurrencies do not currently pose a significant risk to the country's financial stability. However, they could become problematic if closely integrated into the financial world, such as in the case of using stablecoins for payments.
In her perspective, "cryptocurrencies are assets without intrinsic value. Their price can potentially drop to zero, so investors should be prepared for the possibility of losing all their money. Nevertheless, blockchain technology can be valuable for the financial system." The official has pointed out that recent events have underscored the risks within the cryptocurrency sector. Consequently, the cryptocurrency market's downturn has adversely affected two major American banks, Silvergate and Signature, and has also led to the collapse of the stablecoin UST, along with the bankruptcy of several crypto-lending institutions. Given the global nature of the cryptocurrency market, collaborative efforts among regulatory authorities are crucial for devising comprehensive oversight measures for crypto assets, as highlighted by Breeden.

– On Monday, September 11, the BTC price dropped below $25,000 despite the weakening dollar and rising stock indices. This drop occurred amidst rumours that the controversial exchange FTX plans to sell digital assets as part of a bankruptcy procedure. On Tuesday, investors started buying again at the lower price points, causing the coin's value to rise above $26,500.
According to several analysts, there is no fundamental justification for these fluctuations in the price of bitcoin. Essentially, due to low liquidity and a declining market capitalization, the asset is shifting between different groups of players. In reality, investors are looking ahead to September 20 when the next Federal Reserve (FRS) meeting is scheduled.

– We have previously reported on the case of James Howells, a programmer who accidentally discarded a hard drive containing cryptocurrency during an office cleanup in August 2013. Consequently, the hard drive, which held 7500 BTC, ended up in a landfill in Newport, United Kingdom.
Over the course of ten years, Howells has been petitioning local authorities for permission to search for his lost wealth. Recently, his legal representatives sent an open letter to the municipality, requesting access to the landfill site by September 18th. In the event of refusal, the unsuccessful crypto investor intends to initiate a legal lawsuit against the city council, seeking compensation for the value of the lost bitcoins, which currently stands at approximately $250 million. Howells also plans to challenge the authorities' decision to deny him access to the landfill.
Howells stated, "I've tried everything I could over the past decade, but they have been unwilling to cooperate, so I am left with no choice but to pursue legal action. They have even refused to engage in serious discussions about the matter. Regardless of the type of asset, whether it's bitcoin, gold, or diamonds, not addressing this issue is simply imprudent.".

– Analysts from the cryptocurrency platform Matrixport have issued a warning that if Ethereum (ETH) were to fall to $1,500, it could pave the way for a further drop to $1,000. This lower level is considered justified based on their revenue forecasts for the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem. Matrixport highlights that ETH is not a "super-hard currency" capable of resisting inflation, as last week, the number of newly issued coins exceeded the amount burned by 4,000, deviating from the deflationary model that the blockchain transitioned to when switching from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus algorithm.

– Analyst Benjamin Cowen has set an even lower target. He stated that Ethereum is on the brink of "extreme swings," which could result in its price dropping to a range of $800 to $400 by the end of the year. This potential decline is linked to the possible reduction in the profitability of blockchain platforms built on Ethereum's smart contract technology.
According to Cowen, both the Ethereum bulls and bears "have suffered setbacks and failed to execute their strategies." This will likely lead to both sides realizing losses by the end of 2023.

– The Twitter account of Ethereum creator Vitalik Buterin was compromised as a result of a SIM card swap attack. Buterin had not enabled two-factor authentication, allowing the attacker to change the login password for his account by entering a code sent via SMS. Subsequently, the criminal posted a message on Buterin's behalf, falsely claiming a free NFT giveaway, and stole digital assets worth $691,000 from individuals who followed the provided link and linked their crypto wallets.

– David Marcus, co-founder of PayPal and CEO of Lightspark, a company specializing in integrating BTC payments using the Lightning Network, has made an unexpected statement. It turns out he himself doesn't believe that bitcoin will become a popular method of payment for purchases. Marcus explained that the currencies transmitted over the network will still remain fiat currencies that people are familiar with and use today. As for bitcoin, he likened it to a small data packet on the internet that is used to transfer values such as dollars, yen, or euros.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is predicting the last correction in the price of the leading cryptocurrency before an upcoming bull rally. In his view, if the bears manage to breach the exponential moving average line, which is positioned at $24,689, the worst-case scenario would see the coin drop to $23,000.
The specialist believes that this upcoming correction provides the final opportunity to buy bitcoins at a lower price. Institutional demand for digital assets is growing, so in the long term, the cryptocurrency's price will rise due to buying pressure.
However, it's worth noting that on August 17th, the BTC price broke below the ascending trendline that began in December 2022 and stayed below it. This suggests a high risk of a prolonged bearish trend.

– Dan Gambardello, the founder of Crypto Capital Venture, predicts that the next bull cycle could be the most impressive in the cryptocurrency market. The analyst has singled out ETH and XRP as cryptocurrencies to watch in the upcoming bull rally. His attention to these two altcoins is driven by Ripple's victory over the SEC in court and the approval of ETH ETF applications submitted by reputable fund managers.
At the same time, Gambardello has cautioned that the cryptocurrency market follows cycles, and it appears to be in an accumulation phase at the moment. Consequently, the analyst has warned that there is a possibility that the price of bitcoin could drop to $21,000 in the coming weeks. He attributes this potential drop to market manipulation by large players who may be suppressing prices and accumulating coins in anticipation of the next bull run.

– Prominent analyst known as CrypNuevo has analysed the current dynamics of bitcoin. According to this specialist, in the near future, the flagship cryptocurrency could reach the $27,000 mark. However, as the analyst emphasized, this is likely to be a false move. Furthermore, a subsequent drop is expected, potentially down to the $24,000 level.

– Mike McGlone, Senior Macroeconomic Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has cautioned investors that the near future could be challenging for the crypto sphere. In his view, digital assets gained popularity during an era of zero interest rates. However, monetary policy is currently undergoing changes, which could pose problems for the industry. This is evident in the decline in Bitcoin's price, despite positive news about the impending approval of spot ETFs in the United States.
"Cryptocurrencies flourished during an unprecedented period of zero interest rates, but this policy is rapidly changing, with consequences for prices. In Q3, bitcoin dropped by 15%, despite the potential approval of spot ETFs. Cryptocurrency, traded around the clock and without weekends, could become one of the most accurate indicators of an impending reset in the global economy. It has been overly inflated with liquidity, and now we're witnessing a liquidity unwind," believes the analyst.
McGlone pointed out that by November, according to futures, the yield on US government bonds is expected to reach 5.45%. This is significant, especially when considering that from 2011 to 2021, this figure was only 0.6% annually, precisely when bitcoin and other digital assets experienced substantial growth. Therefore, the liquidity outflow from cryptocurrencies is not surprising.
(Recall that back in June, Mike McGlone had already warned about the potential decline in bitcoin's price and turned out to be correct)
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 16, 2023, 03:18:32 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 18 - 22, 2023


EUR/USD: ECB Triggers Euro Collapse

The past week was marked by two significant events. The first was the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States on September 13. The second was the meeting of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Governing Council on September 14.

Regarding the first event, the annual CPI in the United States rose from 3.2% in July to 3.7% in August, surpassing market forecasts of 3.6%. On a monthly basis, the CPI increased from 0.2% to 0.6%, precisely in line with market expectations. Financial markets reacted relatively tepidly to this data. According to CME Group, there is a 78.5% likelihood that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will maintain the key interest rate at its current level of 5.50% per annum during its meeting on September 20. However, the CPI statistics provide the regulator some room for manoeuvre in terms of tightening monetary policy in the future. If inflation in the United States continues to rise, there is a high probability that the Federal Reserve will increase the refinancing rate by another 25 basis points (bps). This is especially likely given that the U.S. economy is demonstrating stable growth and the national labor market remains robust. The published number of initial unemployment claims was 220K, which was lower than the forecasted 225K.

The second event triggered a considerably more volatile response. On Thursday, September 14, the ECB raised its key interest rate for the euro by 25 basis points (bps) for the tenth consecutive time, moving it from 4.25% to 4.50%. This is the highest it has reached since 2001. Experts had varying opinions on the move, labelling it as either hawkish or dovish. However, in theory, an interest rate increase should have supported the common European currency. Contrarily, EUR/USD fell below the 1.0700 mark, recording a local low at 1.0631. The last time it reached such depths was in the spring of 2023.

The decline in the euro was attributed to dovish comments made by the ECB's leadership. One could deduce from these that the central bank had already brought rates to levels that, if sustained over an extended period, should bring inflation within the Eurozone down to the target 2.0%. ECB President Christine Lagarde's statement, "I'm not saying we are at the peak of rates," failed to impress investors. They concluded that the current hike to 4.50% is likely the last step in this tightening cycle of monetary policy. As a result, with the backdrop that the Federal Reserve may still raise its rate to 5.75%, bears in EUR/USD have gained a noticeable advantage.

Bearish momentum increased even further following Thursday's release of data indicating that U.S. retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month (MoM), significantly exceeding the 0.2% forecast. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for August rose by 0.7%, also surpassing expectations and the previous reading of 0.4%.

"We anticipate that the relative strength of the U.S. economy will continue to put pressure on EUR/USD in the coming months, as the growth differential will play a leading role. We maintain our forecast for the cross to be at the 1.0600-1.0300 range over the next 6-12 months," comment strategists at Danske Bank, one of Northern Europe's leading banks. They continue: "Given that it's hard to envision a sharp shift in the current U.S. dollar dynamics, and with commodity prices currently rising, we may reach our 6-month forecast for the cross earlier than expected."

HSBC strategists predict an even faster decline for the pair, anticipating that it will reach the 1.0200 level by the end of this year. According to specialists at ING, the pair could drop to the 1.0600-1.0650 area around the time of the Federal Reserve meeting in the upcoming week. "We believe that, at this stage, the EUR/USD rate will be increasingly influenced by the dollar," they write. "Markets have recognized that the ECB has most likely reached its peak interest rate, which means that Eurozone data should become less relevant. We might see EUR/USD rise again today [September 15], but a return to the 1.0600/1.0650 area around the date of the Federal Reserve meeting seems highly likely.".

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 15, the pair indeed rose and ended the five-day trading period at the 1.0660 mark. 55% of experts are in favour of a continued upward correction, while 45% agree with ING economists' opinion and voted for a decline in the pair. As for technical analysis, almost nothing has changed over the past week. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe, 100% are still favouring the U.S. currency and are coloured in red. However, 25% of the latest indicators signal that the pair is oversold. Immediate support for the pair is located in the 1.0620-1.0630 area, followed by 1.0515-1.0525, 1.0480, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Bulls will encounter resistance in the 1.0680-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

The upcoming week will be quite eventful. On Tuesday, September 19, consumer inflation data (CPI) for the Eurozone will be released. Undoubtedly, the most significant day of the week, and perhaps even the upcoming months, will be Wednesday, September 20, when the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve will take place. In addition to the interest rate decision, investors expect to glean valuable information from the FOMC's long-term forecasts as well as during the press conference led by the Federal Reserve's management. On Thursday, September 21, the traditional initial jobless claims data will be published in the United States, along with the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Activity Index. Friday promises a deluge of business activity statistics, with the release of PMI data for Germany, the Eurozone, and the United States. 

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Bank of England Meeting

According to recent statistics, the UK economy is going through a challenging period. Some of the more emotional analysts even describe its condition as dire. GBP/USD continued to decline against the backdrop of disappointing GDP data for the country. According to the latest figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Wednesday, September 13, the British economy contracted by -0.5% on a monthly basis, compared to an expected decline of -0.2%.

The day before, on Tuesday, the ONS published equally disheartening data concerning the labor market. The unemployment rate for the three months through July rose to 4.3%, compared to the previous figure of 4.2%. Employment decreased by 207,000 jobs, while the economy lost 66,000 jobs a month earlier. The market consensus forecast had been for a reduction of 185,000 jobs.

The Bank of England's (BoE) efforts to combat inflation appear to be rather modest. Although the annual rate of price growth in the UK has decreased from 7.9% to 6.8% (the lowest since February 2022), inflation remains the highest among the G7 countries. Moreover, the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged from the previous month at 6.9% year-on-year, only 0.2% below the peak set two months earlier.

Sarah Briden, the Deputy Governor of the BoE, believes that the "risks to inflation [...] are currently to the upside," and that it will only reach the target level of 2% two years from now. Meanwhile, according to quarterly survey data, only 21% of the country's population is satisfied with what the Bank of England is doing to control price growth. This marks a new record low.

Analysts at Canada's Scotiabank believe that the decline of GBP/USD could continue to 1.2100 in the coming weeks, and further to 1.2000. Economists at the French bank Societe Generale hold a similar view. According to them, while a fall to 1.1500 seems unlikely, the pair could very well reach 1.2000.

GBP/USD concluded the past week at a mark of 1.2382. The median forecast suggests that 50% of analysts expect the pair to correct upwards, 35% anticipate further movement downwards, and the remaining 15% point eastward. On the D1 chart, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators are coloured red, with 15% indicating that the pair is in oversold territory. If the pair continues to move south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2300-1.2330, 1.2270, 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. In the event of an upward correction, the pair will face resistance at 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Among the key events related to the UK economy, the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday, September 20, stands out. This inflation indicator will undoubtedly impact the Bank of England's decision on interest rates (forecasted to rise by 25 bps, from 5.25% to 5.50%). The BoE meeting will take place on Thursday, September 21. Additionally, toward the end of the workweek, data on retail sales and the UK's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will be released.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 16, 2023, 03:20:46 PM
USD/JPY: No Surprises Expected from the Bank of Japan Yet

Since the beginning of this year, the yen has been gradually losing ground to the U.S. dollar, with USD/JPY returning to November 2022 levels. It's worth noting that it was a year ago at these heights that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated active currency interventions. This year, however, the BoJ has so far engaged only in verbal interventions, although quite actively: high-ranking Japanese officials are frequently making public comments.

In a recent interview with Yomiuri newspaper, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the central bank might abandon its negative interest rate policy if it concludes that sustainable inflation targets of 2% have been achieved. According to Ueda, by year-end, the regulator will have sufficient data to assess whether conditions are ripe for a policy shift.

This verbal intervention had an impact: markets responded with a strengthening of the yen. However, the "magic" was short-lived, and USD/JPY soon resumed its upward trajectory, closing the five-day trading period at 147.84.

Economists at Danske Bank believe that the global environment favours the Japanese yen and forecast a decline in USD/JPY to 130.00 over a 6-12 month horizon. "We believe that yields in the U.S. are peaking or close to it, which is the primary argument for our bearish stance on USD/JPY," they state. "Additionally, under current global economic conditions, where growth and inflation rates are declining, history suggests that these are favourable conditions for the Japanese yen." Danske Bank also anticipates that a recession could begin in the United States within the next two quarters, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut dollar interest rates. Until the Federal Reserve concludes its easing cycle, the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its monetary policy unchanged. Therefore, any action from the BoJ before the second half of 2024 is unlikely.

As for short-term forecasts, Societe Generale does not rule out the possibility that following the FOMC decision by the Federal Reserve on September 20, USD/JPY could move closer to the 150.00 mark. As for the Bank of Japan's meeting on Friday, September 22, no surprises are expected, and it will likely involve another round of verbal intervention. Meanwhile, the vast majority of surveyed experts (80%) believe that if the Federal Reserve rate remains unchanged, USD/JPY has a high likelihood of correcting downward. Only 10% expect the pair to continue its upward trajectory, while another 10% take a neutral stance. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 time frame are coloured green, although 10% of these are signalling overbought conditions.

The nearest support levels are located in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.90-143.05, 142.20, 141.40-141.75, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance is at 147.95-148.00, followed by 148.45, 148.85-149.10, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.90.

We have already mentioned the Bank of Japan's meeting on September 22. No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the coming week. Traders should be aware, however, that Monday, September 18, is a public holiday in Japan as the country observes Respect for the Aged Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Death Cross and Bitcoin Paradoxes

(https://i.ibb.co/hDDL1q7/BTCUSD-18-09-2023.jpg)

A "Death Cross," indicated by the intersection of the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, has appeared on bitcoin's daily chart. This pattern last emerged in mid-January 2022, and was followed by a nearly threefold decrease in bitcoin's price by November, which is cause for concern. Interestingly, a similar Death Cross was observed in July 2021, but did not result in a price decline, offering some reassurance.

The current week in the cryptocurrency market has been marked by high volatility, with trading volumes for the leading cryptocurrency reaching $15 billion. Such levels of activity are typically only seen around major macroeconomic events. In this case, they include the release of U.S. inflation data on Wednesday, September 13, and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 20.

The BTC/USD weekly chart showed the following trends. On Monday, September 11, the price of bitcoin fell below $25,000, despite a weakening dollar and rising stock indices. This decline was fueled by rumors that the controversial FTX exchange was planning to sell digital assets as part of a bankruptcy proceeding. On Tuesday, investors resumed buying at lower levels, pushing the coin's price above $26,500. On Thursday, following the ECB's decision on interest rates, bitcoin continued to strengthen its position, reaching a high of $26,838. This occurred even as the dollar was strengthening.

In fact, the recent price dynamics are quite paradoxical. Imagine BTC/USD as a set of scales. When one side becomes heavier, it goes down while the other goes up. Yet, we witnessed both sides simultaneously descending and ascending. According to some analysts, there was no fundamental rationale behind these bitcoin movements. With low liquidity and falling market capitalization, the asset was merely being "shifted" from one group of speculators to another.

Even the testimony of Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), before the U.S. Senate did not spook market participants. He stated that the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrencies fall under the jurisdiction of his agency. Consequently, all intermediaries in the market, exchanges, brokers, dealers, and clearing agencies, are required to register with the SEC.

Gensler compared the current state of the crypto industry to the " Earnings-price ratio west" years of the early 20th century, when securities market legislation was still being developed. During those years, the agency took a series of strict enforcement actions to rein in the industry, and many cases ended up in court. Similar measures are needed today, not only to serve as a deterrent to businesses but also to protect investors, the SEC Chairman stated. (It's worth noting that, according to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, the SEC is to blame for the U.S. becoming one of the "worst places" to launch cryptocurrency projects.)

But aside from the SEC, there are other regulators, such as the Federal Reserve. It's clear that the Fed's decisions and forecasts, which will be announced on September 20, will impact the dynamics of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. Mike McGlone, Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has already warned investors that the near future for the crypto sector looks challenging. According to him, digital assets gained popularity during a period of near-zero interest rates. However, as monetary policy shifts, challenges could arise for the industry. McGlone pointed out that the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds is expected to reach 5.45% by November, based on futures contracts. In contrast, from 2011 to 2021, this yield was only about 0.6% annually, a period during which bitcoin and other digital assets saw significant growth. Therefore, a liquidity outflow from cryptocurrencies would not be surprising.

Once again, many analysts are offering positive medium- and long-term forecasts but negative short-term outlooks. Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture firm Eight, predicts a final price correction for the leading cryptocurrency before an impending bull rally. According to him, if bears manage to breach the exponential moving average line, currently at $24,689, the coin could drop to as low as $23,000 in a worst-case scenario. Van De Poppe believes this upcoming correction represents the last chance to buy bitcoin at a low price.

Dan Gambardello, founder of Crypto Capital Venture, predicts that the next bull cycle could be the most impressive in the cryptocurrency market. However, he also reminds investors that the crypto market follows cycles and appears to be in an accumulation phase. Given this, Gambardello warns that there's a possibility that bitcoin's price could drop to $21,000 in the coming weeks. He attributes this potential decline to market manipulation by major players who may be driving down prices to accumulate coins in anticipation of the next bull run.

According to a popular expert known as CrypNuevo, the flagship cryptocurrency could soon reach a $27,000 mark. However, the analyst emphasized that this is likely to be a false move, and a dip down to around $24,000 should be expected thereafter. (It's worth noting that on August 17, the BTC price broke through the ascending trend line that started in December 2022 and settled below it, indicating a high risk of a prolonged bearish trend.)

As for the short-term prospects of the leading altcoin, they also appear to be less than optimistic. Analysts at Matrixport have warned that if ETH drops to $1,500, the path to $1,000 would be open: a level the experts consider justifiable based on their revenue projections for the Ethereum blockchain ecosystem. Matrixport notes that ETH is not a "super sound money" capable of resisting inflation, as the number of coins minted last week exceeded the amount burned by 4,000. This represents a deviation from the deflationary model that the blockchain adopted with the consensus algorithm transition from Proof of Work (PoW) to Proof of Stake (PoS).

Analyst Benjamin Cowen sets an even lower target. He claims that Ethereum is on the brink of "extreme volatility," potentially plummeting to a range between $800 and $400 by the end of the year. The reason remains the same: a possible decline in the profitability of blockchain platforms built on ETH smart contract technologies. According to Cowen, both ETH bulls and bears "have crashed and failed to execute their strategies," which will result in both parties locking in their losses by the end of 2023.

With three and a half months remaining until the end of the year, the current state of the market at the time of writing this review, Friday evening, September 15, shows ETH/USD trading around $1,620 and BTC/USD at $26,415. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.052 trillion, up from $1.043 trillion a week ago. The leading cryptocurrency accounts for 48.34% of the market, while the primary altcoin makes up 18.84%. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin remains in the 'Fear' zone at 45 points, albeit inching closer to the 'Neutral' zone (it was 46 points a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 20, 2023, 02:39:19 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/bzMsDBv/Crypto-News-20-09-2023.jpg)

– Bitcoin is grappling with the $27,000 level ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, set to be announced on September 20. John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, believes that the leading crypto asset is poised for a breakout. The indicator employs standard deviation from a simple moving average to identify asset volatility and potential price ranges. Currently, the BTC/USD pair is forming daily candles that touch the upper band, which may suggest a reversal back to the central band or, conversely, an increase in volatility and an upward movement. The narrow Bollinger Bands on the charts indicate that the latter scenario is more likely. However, Bollinger himself is cautious in his commentary, stating that it's too early to draw any definitive conclusions.

– Many participants in the crypto community are confident that bitcoin will continue to grow. For instance, an analyst going by the pseudonym Yoddha believes that bitcoin has a chance to reach a new local high and target $50,000 by the end of the year. Following that, a correction to $30,000 could occur in early 2024, ahead of the halving event.
Crypto blogger Crypto Rover argues that troubles in the U.S. economy will serve as a catalyst for bitcoin's growth. Should a confident breakout occur around the $27,000 resistance level, a price movement to $32,000 could be anticipated.
Analyst DonAlt, who accurately predicted the cryptocurrency rally earlier this year, posits that bitcoin has a chance for another significant rally and could set a new high for 2023. "If we rise and overcome the resistance we're currently battling," he writes, "the target could be around $36,000. [...] I don’t rule out missing a good entry at $30,000 because if the price takes off, it may rise too quickly. [However] there are substantial reasons for a downward move as well. In the worst case, I'll take a minor hit if it dips into the $19,000 to $20,000 range."

– Prominent analyst known by the pseudonym PlanB has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this year. He noted that the November 2022 low was the bottom for bitcoin, and its ascent will commence closer to the halving event. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will propel the leading cryptocurrency to $66,000, and the subsequent bull market in 2025 could elevate its price beyond the $100,000 mark.

– According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds decreased by $54 million last week, with bitcoin accounting for $45 million of the outflows and Ethereum making up $5 million. Investments in funds allowing for short positions on bitcoin decreased by $4 million. This marks the fifth consecutive week of capital outflows, which have occurred in 8 out of the last 9 weeks. The total outflows over the past two months amount to $455 million. Meanwhile, weekly trading volumes have increased to $1 billion, representing a 42% surge compared to the previous week.

– Chainalysis has compiled a ranking of 154 countries based on the proportion of citizens investing a significant share of their savings in crypto assets. India topped the list, followed by Nigeria and Vietnam. The top 20, in descending order, included the United States, Ukraine, the Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Brazil, Thailand, China, Turkey, Russia, the United Kingdom, Argentina, Mexico, Bangladesh, Japan, Canada, and Morocco.
Analysts noted that the global cryptocurrency adoption index is far from the historical highs seen in 2021 and is showing a declining trend. Most countries occupying leading positions in the ranking are categorized by the World Bank as nations with below-average income per capita.

– A new wave of cryptocurrency scams impersonating Elon Musk has emerged on the social media platform TikTok, as reported by Bleeping Computer. According to the publication, videos are being uploaded hourly, featuring Musk purportedly giving interviews to major outlets and directing viewers to a website where a giveaway is taking place. Fraudsters have created hundreds of such websites, some of which pose as cryptocurrency exchanges.
Journalists from the publication tested one of the giveaways: they created an account on the platform and entered the promo code provided in the TikTok video. They were then promised a bitcoin deposit into their account. A balance of 0.34 BTC (~$9,000) allegedly appeared in their wallet. However, upon attempting to withdraw the funds, they were asked to activate their account by depositing 0.005 BTC (around $132).

– U.S. Senate Banking Committee Chairman Sherrod Brown has called for stricter disclosure requirements for companies in the digital assets industry. Brown sent letters to the U.S. Treasury Secretary, the Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and the head of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), emphasizing the significant financial losses suffered by cryptocurrency investors. According to his data, investors lost approximately $10 billion in 2022 due to fraud and hacking attacks.
Additionally, nine American lawmakers have endorsed a bill aimed at combating money laundering through cryptocurrencies, which has been reintroduced for consideration in the U.S. Congress.

– Analysts at Matrixport, a provider of cryptographic services, believe that the surge in applications for launching spot bitcoin ETFs is revitalizing the digital asset market and could act as a catalyst for the price growth of the flagship cryptocurrency. The company notes a substantial "potential buying pressure for bitcoin," particularly from investors interested in the offering of a spot exchange-traded fund. Against this backdrop, bitcoin's dominance level has risen to 50.2%, marking the highest level in a month and nearing the 26-month peak of 52%, reached at the end of June.

– According to data from Chainalysis, cybercriminals from North Korea stole $340 million in 2023, with a third of that amount coming from just two attacks. This figure is significantly less than the previous year's record of $1.65 billion stolen in 2022. However, the attack dynamics are causing concern among experts. In the last 10 days alone, the Lazarus Group has hacked the Stake platform for $40 million and the CoinEx exchange for $55 million.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, believes that traditional fiat currency has no future, and the future of money lies in cryptocurrencies. According to the expert, the U.S. economy is on the brink of a serious crisis, and cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, offer investors a safe haven during these turbulent times. Kiyosaki forecasts that the price of bitcoin could soar to $120,000 next year, with the 2024 halving serving as a key catalyst for the rally.
The specialist also revealed that he personally owns 60 BTC, which he acquired at $6,000 per coin. As a result, his current profit from this transaction exceeds $1.25 million.

– Analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin's bullish market cycle began to form around January and this process is not yet complete, despite the recent price consolidation. According to the trader, bitcoin will confirm its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key level at $28,500.
"In this market, we've rarely seen levels below $25,000. I'm not saying it can't go down, but for the last six months, the weekly closes have been above these levels. So far, so good, but the bulls aren't here yet. They need to at least occasionally see closes above $26,550," states Pizzino. "The bulls still have a lot to accomplish. I'll start talking about them once we cross the white line again at the $28,500 level. That's one of the key levels for the beginning of bitcoin's upward movement, to then attempt to break through $32,000.".

– According to popular analyst and host of the DataDash channel Nicholas Merten, the crypto market may be in for another downturn, signalled by decreasing stablecoin liquidity. "It's a good indicator for identifying trends in the crypto market. For example, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. During that same period, stablecoin liquidity increased by 119%. Then we see a period of consolidation where liquidity also remained stable. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, stablecoin liquidity soared by 2,183%," shares the expert.
"Liquidity and price growth are linked. If liquidity is decreasing or consolidating, then the market is likely not going to grow. This holds true for both cryptocurrencies and financial markets. Market capitalization needs liquidity to grow, but we're seeing it constantly decrease, making a decline in cryptocurrency prices more likely," states Nicholas Merten.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on September 24, 2023, 11:10:45 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for September 25 - 29, 2023


EUR/USD: Verbal Interventions by the Federal Reserve Support the Dollar

In previous reviews, we extensively discussed the verbal interventions made by Japanese officials who aim to bolster the yen through their public statements. This time, similar actions have been taken by FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) officials, led by the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. At their meeting on September 20th, the FOMC decided to maintain the interest rate at 5.50%. This was largely expected, as futures markets had indicated a 99% probability of such an outcome. However, in the subsequent press conference, Mr. Powell indicated that the battle against inflation is far from over, and that the 2.0% target may not be achieved until 2026. Therefore, another rate hike of 25 basis points is very much in the cards. According to the Fed Chairman, there is no recession on the horizon, and the U.S. economy is sufficiently robust to sustain such high borrowing costs for an extended period. Furthermore, it was revealed that 12 out of 19 FOMC members anticipate a rate hike to 5.75% within this year. According to the Committee's economic forecast, this rate level is expected to persist for quite some time. Specifically, the updated forecast suggests that the rate could only be lowered to 5.1% a year from now (as opposed to the previously stated 4.6%), and a decrease to 3.9% is expected in a two-year outlook (revised from 3.4%).

Market participants have mixed beliefs about these prospects, but the fact remains that the hawkish assertions from officials have bolstered the dollar, despite the absence of tangible actions. It's possible that the Federal Reserve has learned from the mistakes of their European Central Bank (ECB) counterparts, who have led market players to believe that the monetary tightening cycle in the Eurozone has concluded. As a reminder, ECB President Christine Lagarde made it clear that she considers the current interest rate level to be acceptable, while the Governor of the Bank of Greece, Yannis Stournaras, stated that, in his opinion, interest rates have peaked, and the next move will likely be a reduction. A similar sentiment: that the September act of monetary tightening was the last, was also expressed by Stournaras's colleague, Boris Vujčić, the Governor of the National Bank of Croatia.

As a result of the Federal Reserve's verbal intervention, the Dollar Index (DXY) soared from 104.35 to 105.37 within just a few hours, while EUR/USD declined to a level of 1.0616. Economists at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation (OCBC) believe that, given the Fed's decision to retain flexibility concerning another rate hike, it is not advisable to anticipate a dovish turn in the foreseeable future.

Danske Bank strategists opine that "the Fed was as hawkish as it could be without actually raising rates." However, they contend that "despite the ongoing strengthening of the dollar, there may be some upside potential for EUR/USD in the near term." Danske Bank further states, "We believe that peak rates, improvements in the manufacturing sector compared to the service sector, and/or a reduction in pessimism towards China could support EUR/USD over the next month. However, in the longer term, we maintain our strategic position favouring a decline in EUR/USD, expecting a breakthrough below 1.0300 within the next 12 months."

Data on U.S. business activity released on Friday, September 22, presented a mixed picture. The Manufacturing PMI index rose to 48.9, while the Services PMI declined to 50.2. Consequently, the Composite PMI remained above the 50.0 threshold but showed a slight dip, moving from 50.2 to 50.1.

Following the PMI release, EUR/USD concluded the week at 1.0645. Seventy percent of experts favoured further strengthening of the dollar, while 30% voted for an uptrend in the currency pair. In terms of technical analysis, not much has changed over the nearly completed week. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are still unanimously supporting the American currency and are coloured red. However, 15% of them are signalling the pair's oversold condition. The nearest support levels for the pair lie in the 1.0620-1.0630 range, followed by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0370, and 1.0255. Resistance levels will be encountered in the 1.0670-1.0700 zone, then at 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

As for the upcoming week's events, Tuesday, September 26 will see the release of U.S. real estate market data, followed by durable goods orders in the U.S. on Wednesday. Thursday, September 28 promises to be a busy day. Preliminary inflation (CPI) data from Germany as well as U.S. GDP figures for Q2 will be disclosed. Additionally, the customary U.S. labour market statistics will be released, and the day will conclude with remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. On Friday, we can also expect a slew of significant macroeconomic data, including the Eurozone's preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) and information regarding personal consumption in the United States.

GBP/USD: BoE Withdraws Support for the Pound

(https://i.ibb.co/wc0syQQ/GBPUSD-25-09-2023.jpg)

The financial world doesn't revolve around the Federal Reserve's decisions alone. Last week, the Bank of England (BoE) also made its voice heard. On Thursday, September 21, the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee left the interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25%. While a similar decision by the Federal Reserve was expected, the BoE's move came as a surprise to market participants. They had anticipated a 25 basis point increase, which did not materialize. As a result, the strengthening dollar and weakening pound drove GBP/USD down to 1.2230.

The BoE's decision was likely influenced by encouraging inflation data for the United Kingdom published the day before. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) actually declined to 6.7%, compared to the previous 6.8% and a forecast of 7.1%. The core CPI also fell from 6.9% to 6.2%, against a forecast of 6.8%. Given such data, the decision to pause and not burden an already struggling economy appears reasonable. This rationale is further supported by the United Kingdom's preliminary Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for September, which hit a 32-month low at 47.2, compared to 49.5 in August and a forecast of 49.2. The Manufacturing PMI was also reported at 44.2, significantly below the critical level of 50.0.

According to economists at S&P Global Market Intelligence, these "disheartening PMI results suggest that a recession in the United Kingdom is becoming increasingly likely. [...] The sharp decline in production volumes indicated by the PMI data corresponds to a GDP contraction of more than 0.4% on a quarterly basis, and the broad-based downturn is gaining momentum with no immediate prospects for improvement.".

Analysts at one of the largest banks in the United States, Wells Fargo, believe that the BoE's decision signals a loss of rate-based support for the British pound. According to their forecast, the current rate of 5.25% will mark the peak of the cycle, followed by a gradual decline to 3.25% by the end of 2024. Consequently, they argue that "in this context, a movement of the pound to 1.2000 or lower is not out of the question."

Their counterparts at Scotiabank share a similar sentiment. New lows and strong bearish signals on the oscillator for short-term, medium-term, and long-term trends indicate an elevated risk of the pound dropping to 1.2100-1.2200.

Economists at Germany's Commerzbank do not rule out the possibility of a slight recovery for the pound if inflation outlooks significantly improve. They believe that the Bank of England has left the door open for another rate hike. The vote for maintaining the current rate was surprisingly close at 5:4, meaning four members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favour of a 25 basis point increase. This underscores the high level of uncertainty. Nevertheless, due to the weakness in the UK economy, the outlook for the pound remains bearish.

GBP/USD closed the past week at 1.2237. Analyst opinions on the pair's immediate future are evenly split: 50% expect further downward movement, while the other 50% anticipate a correction to the upside. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are coloured in red; moreover, 40% of these oscillators are in the oversold zone, which is a strong signal for a potential trend reversal.

If the pair continues its downward trajectory, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2190-1.2210, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. On the other hand, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2325, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

In terms of economic events impacting the United Kingdom for the upcoming week, the highlight will be the release of the country's GDP data for Q2, scheduled for Friday, September 29.

USD/JPY: Lacklustre Meeting at the Bank of Japan

Following their counterparts at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) held its meeting on Friday, September 22. "It was a lacklustre meeting," commented economists at TD Securities. "All members unanimously voted to keep policy unchanged. The statement was largely similar to the one issued in July, and no changes were made to the forward guidance." The key interest rate remained at the negative level of -0.1%.

The subsequent press conference led by BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also disappointed yen bulls. Ueda did not speak against the weakening of the national currency; instead, he reiterated that the exchange rate should reflect fundamental indicators and remain stable. The central bank's head also noted that the regulator "could consider the possibility of ending yield curve control and altering the negative interest rate policy when we are confident that achieving the 2% inflation target is near."

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki's speech was also a typical form of verbal intervention for him. "We are closely monitoring currency exchange rates with a high sense of urgency and immediacy," the minister declared, "and we do not rule out any options for responding to excessive volatility." He added that last year's currency intervention had its intended effect but did not indicate whether similar steps could be expected in the near future.

Ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds and the USD/JPY currency pair are traditionally directly correlated. When the yield on the bonds rises, so does the dollar against the yen. This week, following hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve, rates on 10-year Treasuries soared to their highest peak since 2007. This propelled USD/JPY to a new high of 148.45. According to economists at TD Securities, considering the rise in U.S. yields, the pair could break above 150.00. Meanwhile, at the French bank Societe Generale, target levels of 149.20 and 150.30 are being cited.

The last note of the five-day trading session sounded at the 148.36 mark. A majority of surveyed experts (70%) agreed with the views of their colleagues at TD Securities and Societe Generale regarding the further rise of USD/JPY. A correction to the downside, and possibly a sharp drop due to currency interventions, is expected by 20% of analysts. The remaining 10% took a neutral stance. All 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are coloured green, although 10% of the latter are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support level is in the 146.85-147.00 zone, followed by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.50, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The nearest resistance is at 148.45, followed by 148.45, 148.85-149.20, 150.00, and finally, the October 2022 high of 151.90.

No significant economic data related to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. However, traders may want to mark Friday, September 29 on their calendars, as consumer inflation data for the Tokyo region will be published on that day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Battle for $27,000

On Monday, September 18, the price of the leading cryptocurrency began to soar, pulling the entire digital asset market upward. Interestingly, the reason behind this surge was not directly related to bitcoin, but rather to the U.S. dollar. Specifically, it was tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. High dollar rates limit the flow of investments into riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies, as large investors prefer stable returns. In this case, ahead of the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, market participants were confident that the regulator would not only refrain from raising rates but would also keep them unchanged until year-end. Riding on these expectations, BTC/USD surged, reaching a peak of $27,467 on August 19, adding more than 10% since September 11.

However, although the rate did indeed remain unchanged, it became clear following the meeting that the fight against inflation would continue. Therefore, any hopes of a shift away from the Fed's hawkish stance should be set aside for now. As a result, the price of bitcoin reversed course. After breaking through the support zone at $27,000, it returned to its starting positions.

Despite the recent pullback, many in the crypto community remain confident that the digital gold will continue to rise. For instance, an analyst going by the alias Yoddha believes that bitcoin has a chance to refresh its local high in the short term and reach $50,000 by year-end. After which, he suggests, a correction to $30,000 may occur in early 2024, ahead of the halving event. Blogger Crypto Rover also anticipates that troubles in the U.S. economy will fuel BTC's growth. If the pair manages to firmly establish itself above $27,000, he expects the price to move towards $32,000.

Analyst DonAlt is of the opinion that bitcoin stands a chance to stage a new impressive rally and update its 2023 high. "If we rise and overcome the resistance we are currently battling," he writes, "the target, I believe, could be $36,000. [...] I won't rule out missing a good entry at $30,000 because if the price takes off, it may rise too quickly. [But] we have enough compelling reasons to also move downward. In the worst case, I'll take a minor hit if it plunges into the $19,000 to $20,000 range.".

Trader and analyst Jason Pizzino believes that bitcoin's bullish market cycle began forming around January, and this process is still not complete despite the recent price consolidation. According to the expert, bitcoin will confirm its bullish sentiment if it crosses a key level at $28,500. "This market has seldom seen sub-$25,000 levels. I'm not saying it can't go down, but for six months now, the weekly closings have been above these levels. So far, so good, but we're not in bull territory yet. Bulls need to see closings above $26,550 at least occasionally," states Pizzino. "Bulls still have much to do. I'll start talking about them once we cross the white line at the $28,500 level again. This is one of the key levels for bitcoin to start moving upwards and then try to break $32,000.".

John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, does not rule out the possibility that the leading crypto asset is preparing for a breakout. The indicator uses the standard deviation from the simple moving average to determine volatility and potential price ranges for an asset. Currently, BTC/USD is forming daily candles that touch the upper band. This could indicate a reversal back to the central band or, conversely, an increase in volatility and upward movement. Narrow Bollinger Bands on the charts suggest that the latter scenario is more likely. However, Bollinger himself comments cautiously, believing that it is still too early to draw definitive conclusions.

PlanB, the well-known creator of the S2FX model, has reaffirmed his forecast made earlier this year. He noted that the November 2022 low was the bottom for bitcoin, and its ascent will begin closer to the halving event. PlanB believes that the 2024 halving will drive the leading cryptocurrency up to $66,000, and the subsequent bull market in 2025 could push its price above the $100,000 mark.

Investor and best-selling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, has high hopes for the halving event as well. According to the expert, the U.S. economy is on the verge of a serious crisis, and cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, offer investors a safe haven during these turbulent times. Kiyosaki predicts that the price of bitcoin could soar to $120,000 next year, and the 2024 halving will serve as a key catalyst for the rally.

In conclusion, to balance out the optimistic forecasts mentioned earlier, let's introduce some pessimism. According to popular analyst and host of the DataDash channel, Nicholas Merten, the crypto market could experience another downturn. He cites the declining liquidity of stablecoins as an indicator. "It's a good metric for identifying trends in the cryptocurrency market. For instance, from April 2019 to July 2019, bitcoin rose from $3,500 to $12,000. During the same period, the liquidity of stablecoins increased by 119%. Then we see a period of consolidation where liquidity also remained at a constant level. When bitcoin rose from $3,900 to $65,000 in 2021, the liquidity of stablecoins surged by 2,183%," the expert shares his observations.

"Liquidity and price growth are interconnected. If liquidity is declining or consolidating, the market is likely not going to grow. This is true for both cryptocurrencies and financial markets. For market capitalization to grow, you need liquidity, but what we are seeing is a constant decline in liquidity, which makes a price drop for cryptocurrencies more probable," Nicholas Merten states.

As of the time of writing this review, Friday evening, September 22, BTC/USD is trading around $26,525. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market has remained virtually unchanged, standing at $1.053 trillion (compared to $1.052 trillion a week ago). The Bitcoin Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped by 2 points, moving from 45 to 43, and remains in the 'Fear' zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 01, 2023, 01:10:42 PM
September 2023 Results: South Asian Traders Lead at NordFX

(https://i.ibb.co/dtKZ409/September-Results-2023.jpg)

Brokerage firm NordFX has summarized the trading performance of its clients for September 2023. The company also evaluated its social trading services and the profits earned by its IB partners.

Gold, specifically the XAU/USD pair, continues to be one of the most popular trading instruments, helping NordFX traders secure positions in the Top 3. Notably, this time all three podium spots were taken by compatriots from South Asia.

- The highest profit in the first month of autumn was earned by a client from South Asia, account number 1679XXX. Trading exclusively on the XAU/USD pair, the client managed to earn 46,138 USD.

- The second spot on the September podium went to their compatriot, with account number 1599XXX. A result of 21,598 USD was achieved through trading with gold (XAU/USD), as well as with the euro (EUR/USD) and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- The precious metal also assisted another representative from South Asia (account number 1702XXX) in entering the Top 3 for September with a profit of 18,766 USD. In addition to XAU/USD, this trader's portfolio included pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and many others. 

In the PAMM service, the "Trade and Earn" account continues to attract the attention of passive investors. Although it was opened 570 days ago, the account remained dormant until reactivating in November of last year. As a result, over the last 11 months, its yield reached 199% with a relatively small drawdown of less than 17%.

It's important to note that past performance does not guarantee future returns. Therefore, as always, we urge investors to exercise the utmost caution when investing their funds.

The Top 3 IB partners of NordFX for September are as follows:
- The highest commission amount of 14,042 USD was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX. It's worth noting that this partner has led the Top 3 for five consecutive months. Over this period, they have earned just under 60,000 USD in total;
- Second place went to the holder of account number 1618XXX from South Asia, who received 9,923 USD;
- And finally, rounding out the Top 3 is a partner from Southeast Asia with account number 1361XXX, who received a commission of 7,127 USD.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 01, 2023, 01:39:52 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 02 - 06, 2023


EUR/USD: Correction is Not a Trend Reversal Yet

The dynamics of the EUR/USD pair in the past week were atypical. In a standard scenario, combating inflation against the backdrop of a strong economy and a healthy labour market leads to an increase in the central bank's interest rate. This, in turn, attracts investors and strengthens the national currency. However, this time the situation unfolded quite differently.

U.S. macroeconomic data released on Thursday, September 28, indicated strong GDP growth in Q2 at 2.1%. The number of initial unemployment claims was 204K, slightly higher than the previous figure of 202K, but less than the expected 215K. Meanwhile, the total number of citizens receiving such benefits amounted to 1.67 million, falling short of the 1.675 million forecast.

This data suggests that the U.S. economy and labour market remain relatively stable, which should prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase interest rates by 25 basis points (bps). It's worth noting that Neil Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, recently confirmed his full support for such a move, as combating high inflation remains the central bank's primary objective. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, went even further, stating that he does not rule out the possibility of rate hikes from the current 5.50% to as high as 7.00%.

However, these figures and forecasts failed to make an impression on market participants. Especially since the rhetoric from Fed officials proved to be quite contradictory. For instance, Thomas Barkin, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, does not believe that U.S. GDP will continue to grow in Q4. He also pointed out that there's a wide range of opinions regarding future rates and that it's unclear if additional changes in monetary policy are required. Austin Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, noted that overconfidence in the trade-off between inflation and unemployment carries the risk of policy mistakes.

Such statements have tempered bullish sentiment on the dollar. Amid this murky and contradictory backdrop, yields on U.S. Treasury bonds, which had been supporting the dollar, fell from multi-year highs. Uncertainty surrounding the U.S. federal budget and the threat of a government shutdown also weighed on the dollar. Furthermore, September 28 and 29 marked the last trading days of Q3, and after 11 weeks of gains, dollar bulls began closing long positions on the DXY index, locking in profits.

As for the Eurozone, inflation has clearly started to wane. Preliminary data indicates that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in Germany has slowed from 6.4% to 4.3%, reaching its lowest point since the onset of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine. The overall Eurozone CPI also fell—despite a previous rate of 5.3% and a forecast of 4.8%, it declined to 4.5%.

This reduction in CPI led to a rescheduling of the European Central Bank's (ECB) anticipated dovish policy shift from Q3 2024 to Q2 2024. Moreover, the likelihood of a new interest rate hike has significantly diminished. In theory, this should have weakened the euro. However, concerns over the fate of the dollar proved to be more impactful, and after bouncing off 1.0487, EUR/USD moved upward, reaching a high of 1.0609.

According to analysts at Germany's Commerzbank, some traders were simply very dissatisfied with levels below 1.0500, so neither macro data nor statements from Fed officials could exert any significant influence on this. However, the rebound does not indicate either a trend reversal or the complete end of the dollar rally. Commerzbank analysts believe that since the market has clearly bet on a soft landing for the U.S. economy, the dollar is likely to react particularly harshly to data that does not confirm this viewpoint.

Analysts at MUFG Bank also believe that the 1.0500 zone has finally become a strong level that served as a catalyst for the reversal. However, in the opinion of the bank's economists, the correction is primarily technical in nature and could soon fizzle out.

On Friday, September 29, traders awaited the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE) in the U.S., which is a key indicator. Year-on-year, it registered at 3.9%, precisely matching forecasts (the previous figure was 4.3%). The market reacted with a minor increase in volatility, after which EUR/USD closed the trading week, month, and quarter at 1.0573. Strategists at Wells Fargo, part of the "big four" U.S. banks, believe that Europe's low metrics compared to the U.S. should exert further downward pressure on the euro. They also believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) has already concluded its current cycle of monetary tightening, as a result of which the pair may drop to the 1.0200 level by early 2024.

Shifting from the medium-term outlook to the near-term, as of the evening of September 29, expert opinions are evenly split into three categories: one-third foresee further dollar strengthening and a decline in EUR/USD; another third expect an upward correction; and the last third take a neutral stance. As for technical analysis, both among trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, the majority, 90%, still favor the U.S. dollar and are coloured red. Only 10% side with the euro. The pair's nearest support levels are around 1.0560, followed by 1.0490-1.0525, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0620-1.0630, then 1.0670-1.0700, followed by 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0895-1.0925, 1.0985, and 1.1045.

Data releases pertaining to the U.S. labour market are anticipated throughout the week spanning from October 3 to October 6. The week will culminate on Friday, October 6, when key indicators, including the unemployment rate and the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) figures, are set to be disclosed. Earlier in the week, specifically on Monday, October 2, insights into the U.S. manufacturing sector's business activity (PMI) will be unveiled. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is also scheduled to speak on this day. On Wednesday, October 4, information regarding the business activity in the U.S. services sector as well as Eurozone retail sales will be made public.

GBP/USD: No Drivers for Pound Growth

According to the latest data published by the UK's National Statistics Office, the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.6% year-over-year in Q2, exceeding expectations of 0.4% and up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. While this positive trend is certainly encouraging, the UK's 0.6% growth rate is 3.5 times lower than the comparable figure in the United States, which stands at 2.1%. Therefore, any commentary on which economy is stronger is unnecessary.

Strategists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, believe that GBP/USD rose in the second half of the past week solely due to a correction in the U.S. dollar. According to them, there are no tangible catalysts related to the United Kingdom that would justify a sustained increase in the British currency at this stage.

Analysts at UOB Group anticipate that GBP/USD could fluctuate within a fairly broad range of 1.2100-1.2380 over the next 1-3 weeks. However, Wells Fargo strategists expect the pair to continue its decline, reaching the 1.1600 zone in early 2024, where it last traded in November 2022. The likelihood of such a move is corroborated by signals from the Bank of England suggesting that the interest rate on the pound may have peaked.

GBP/USD closed the past week at the 1.2202 mark. Analyst opinions on the pair's near-term future are split, offering no clear direction: 40% are bullish on the pair, another 40% are bearish, and the remaining 20% have adopted a neutral stance. Among trend indicators and oscillators on the daily chart (D1), 90% are painted in red, while 10% are in green. Should the pair move downward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2120-1.2145, 1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800. Conversely, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

No significant events related to the United Kingdom's economy are anticipated for the upcoming week.

USD/JPY: Awaiting the Breach of 150.00

"Appropriate measures will be taken against excessive currency movements, not ruling out any options," "We are closely monitoring currency exchange rates." Do these phrases sound familiar? Indeed, they should: these are words from yet another verbal intervention conducted by Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday, September 29. He added that "the government has no specific target level for the Japanese yen that could serve as a trigger for currency intervention."

One can agree with the last statement, especially considering that USD/JPY reached the 149.70 level last week, a height it last achieved in October 2022. Moreover, amid large-scale global bond selloffs, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) took measures to curb the rising yields of 10-year JGBs and announced an unscheduled operation to purchase these bonds on September 29. In such a scenario, if not for the global dollar correction, it's highly likely that this operation could have propelled USD/JPY to break through the 150.00 mark.

As we've already noted above, according to many experts, the dollar's sell-off is most likely related to profit-taking in the final days of the week, month, and quarter. Therefore, this trend may soon dissipate, making the breach of the 150.00 level inevitable.

Could 150.00 be the "magic number" that triggers Japan's financial authorities to commence currency interventions? At the very least, market participants view this level as a potential catalyst for such intervention. This is all the more plausible given the current economic indicators. Industrial production remained unchanged in August compared to July, and core inflation in Japan's capital slowed for the third consecutive month in September. Under these conditions, economists at Mizuho Securities believe that although currency interventions may have limited impact, "the government would lose nothing politically by demonstrating to the Japanese public that it is taking the sharp rise in import prices seriously, caused by the weakening yen.".

The week concluded with USD/JPY trading at the 149.32 mark. A majority of surveyed experts (60%) anticipate a southern correction for the USD/JPY pair, possibly even a sharp yen strengthening due to currency intervention. Meanwhile, 20% predict the pair will confidently continue its northward trajectory, and another 20% have a neutral outlook. On the D1 timeframe, all trend indicators and oscillators are painted in green; however, 10% of the latter are signalling overbought conditions. The nearest support levels are situated at 149.15, followed by 148.45, 147.95-148.05, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance stands at 149.70-150.00, followed by 150.40, 151.90 (October 2022 high), and 153.15.

Apart from the release of the Tankan Large Manufacturers Index for Q3 on October 2, no other significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Hopes on Halving and Halloween

(https://i.ibb.co/zPtRRjZ/BTCUSD-02-10-2023.jpg)

In the first half of the week, BTC/USD trended downward, succumbing to the strengthening U.S. dollar. However, it managed to hold within the $26,000 zone, after which the dynamics shifted: The Dollar Index (DXY) began to weaken, giving the bulls an opportunity to push the pair back to the support/resistance area around $27,000.

It's clear that the stringent monetary policy of the Federal Reserve will continue to exert pressure on bitcoin, as well as the broader cryptocurrency market. While the U.S. regulator opted not to raise the refinancing rate at the end of September, it did not rule out such a move in the future. Adding to the market's uncertainty is the SEC's pending decisions on spot bitcoin ETF applications.

Mark Yusko, CEO of Morgan Creek Capital, believes that a favourable decision by the SEC on these applications could trigger an inflow of $300 billion in investments. In such a scenario, both the market capitalization and the coin's value would significantly increase.

However, the key word here is "if." Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of SkyBridge Capital, acknowledged at the Messari Mainnet Conference in New York the existence of "headwinds" for bitcoin in the form of high interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and the hostility of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler. Nevertheless, this investor and former White House official is confident that bitcoin offers greater prospects than gold. If the bitcoin ETF applications are eventually approved, it would lead to widespread adoption of digital assets. Scaramucci believes that the worst is already behind us in the current bear market. "If you have bitcoin, I wouldn't sell it. You've weathered the winter. [...] The next 10-20 years will be incredibly bullish," he stated. According to the financier, the Newbie traderer generation will mainstream the first cryptocurrency, just as they did with the internet.

Amid uncertainties surrounding the actions of the Federal Reserve and the SEC, the primary hope for the growth of the crypto market lies in the forthcoming halving event scheduled for April 2024. This event is almost certain to occur. However, even here, opinions vary. A number of experts predict a decline in bitcoin's price before the halving.

An analyst known as Rekt Capital compared the current market situation to the BTC price dynamics in 2020 and speculated that the coin's price could fall within a descending triangle, potentially reaching as low as $19,082.

Well-known trader Bluntz, who accurately predicted the extent of bitcoin's fall during the 2018 bear trend, also foresees a continuing downward trajectory. He doubts that the asset has hit its bottom because the descending triangle pattern forming on the chart appears incomplete. Consequently, Bluntz anticipates that bitcoin could depreciate to around $23,800, thereby completing the third corrective wave.

Benjamin Cowen, another renowned analyst, is also bearish in his outlook. He believes that the BTC price could plummet to the $23,000 level. Cowen bases his prediction on historical patterns, which suggest that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency usually experiences a significant slump before a halving event. According to Cowen, past cycles indicate that BTC and other cryptocurrencies do not exhibit strong performance in the period leading up to this crucial event.

In the event of a downturn in digital asset prices, the upcoming halving could spell financial ruin for many miners, some of whom have already succumbed to the competitive pressures of 2021-2022. Currently, miners are operating on thin margins. At present, block rewards constitute 96% of their income, while transaction fees make up just 4%. The halving will cut the block mining rewards in half, and if this occurs without a corresponding increase in the coin's price, it could lead to financial catastrophe for many operators.

Some companies have started to connect their mining farms directly to nuclear power plants, bypassing distribution networks, while others are looking to renewable energy sources. However, not everyone has such options. According to Glassnode, the industry-average cost to mine one bitcoin currently stands at $24,000, although this varies significantly from country to country. CoinGecko data shows the lowest cost of mining in countries like Lebanon ($266), Iran ($532), and Syria ($1,330). In contrast, due to higher electricity costs, the U.S. sees costs soar to $46,280. If bitcoin's price or network fees do not significantly increase by the time of the halving, a wave of bankruptcies is likely.

Is this a bad or good development? Such bankruptcies would lead to a reduction in the mining of new coins, creating a supply deficit, and ultimately driving up their price. As it is, the crypto exchange reserves have already decreased to 2 million BTC, nearing a six-year low. Market participants are opting to hold their reserves in cold storage, anticipating a future surge in prices.

Research firm Fundstrat has speculated that against the backdrop of the halving, BTC prices could surge by more than 500% from current levels, reaching the $180,000 mark. Financial corporation Standard Chartered projects that the price of the flagship cryptocurrency could rise to $50,000 this year and to $120,000 by the end of 2024. The Bitcoin Rainbow Chart by the Blockchain Center also recommends buying; BTC/USD quotes on their chart are currently in the lower zone, suggesting a rebound is due.

According to Michael Saylor, the CEO of MicroStrategy, the inherent supply limitation of bitcoin capped at 21 million coins makes it the best asset for preserving and growing capital. The billionaire compared the depreciation rate of fiat currencies with the dynamics of inflation. He argued that individuals could see their savings erode if held in traditional currencies, citing that over the past 100 years, funds held in U.S. dollars would have lost about 99% of their value.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, September 29, BTC/USD has neither fallen to $19,000 nor risen to $180,000. It is currently trading at $26,850. The overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.075 trillion, up from $1.053 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased by 5 points, moving from 43 to 48, transitioning from the 'Fear' zone to the 'Neutral' zone.

In conclusion, a forecast for the upcoming month. Experts have once again turned to artificial intelligence, this time to predict the price of the flagship cryptocurrency by Halloween (October 31). AI from CoinCodex posits that by the specified date, bitcoin will increase in price and reach a mark of $29,703.

Interestingly, there is even a term in the crypto market known as "Uptober." The idea is that every October, bitcoin sees significant price gains. Looking at the 2021 figures, bitcoin was trading near $61,300 on October 31, marking an increase of over 344% compared to 2020. This phenomenon remained relevant even in the past year, 2022, following the high-profile crash of the FTX exchange. On October 1, 2022, the asset was trading at $19,300, but by October 31, the coin had reached a mark of $21,000. Let's see what awaits us this time.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 04, 2023, 02:25:51 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/3kQPjGq/Crypto-News-04-10-2023.jpg)

– Bitcoin recorded its first green September since 2016, increasing from $26,012 to $26,992. According to TradingView data, the cryptocurrency market's market capitalization also experienced an uptick. It stood at approximately $1.029 trillion at the beginning of September and rose by 6.1% to $1.092 trillion by month-end.
Ran Neuner, a trader and the founder of Crypto Banter, emphasizes the significance of the positive September closing for the leading cryptocurrency. "The last time bitcoin saw a rise in September in a year preceding a halving, we had another rally of 70% in the final quarter. That was in 2015," he notes.
Analysts at Bitfinex share a similar sentiment. "The cryptocurrency market closed September in the green, which is rare but typically leads to a bullish trend in October," they write.
According to a report by Bitfinex Alpha, futures market indicators also confirm an optimistic outlook for October. The report includes network data, which shows that the current price is supported by dynamics between long-term and short-term holders. Indicators reveal that seasoned long-term investors are resolved to remain holders within the current price range. Bitcoins held for 6-12 months remain largely stagnant, and the supply of BTC that is more than three years old has been inactive since February 2023.

– According to data from network analytics firm Santiment, "whales" (wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC) have been quietly accumulating bitcoin and Tether (USDT) over the past six weeks. Their holdings have now reached a 2023 peak of 13.03 million BTC, indicating a bullish long-term outlook for bitcoin.

– The rise in bitcoin during the early days of October has somewhat offset the negative close of Q3, which saw a 12% decline. However, analysts at QCP Capital have warned that the possibility of retesting the $25,000 level should not be ruled out, despite the positive seasonality often referred to as "Uptober." According to statistics, over the past eight years, bitcoin has only finished October in the red in 2018. In other years, the monthly gain ranged from 5.5% to 48.5%. This time, experts anticipate that the resistance level will be between $29,000 and $30,000.

– On Monday, October 2, bitcoin reached a local peak of around $28,562. However, by the evening of the same day, traders began to take profits, and the coin fell below $27,500. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that such a pullback in bitcoin was inevitable. Pressure tends to build when the digital currency gains aggressively in value. Increased volatility is accompanied by heightened activity from sellers looking to profit from the asset's rise.
McGlone doubts that bitcoin will reach $30,000 in the near future. The primary factor hindering further BTC growth is the strict policy of U.S. authorities. Repressive actions by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are deterring institutional investors from entering the cryptocurrency space. Global recession risks are also dampening risk appetite. In such a scenario, equity markets won't be able to grow, emphasized the Bloomberg strategist, adding that digital currencies will also suffer.

– Donald Trump is considered a staunch opponent of bitcoin. However, former SEC employee John Reed Stark believes that Trump may change his stance on cryptocurrencies during the 2024 presidential elections to garner support from voters who use digital assets. This speculation is supported by two facts. First, last year Trump released and sold a collection of NFT Trump Digital Trading Cards. Second, he still owns $2.8 million worth of Ethereum. Stark suggests that if Trump returns to the presidential office, he will prompt the SEC to approve the issuance of bitcoin ETFs and will also ease regulatory pressure on the crypto industry.

– The SEC has asked the U.S. District Court in New York not to dismiss its lawsuit against Coinbase. In its statement dated October 3, the Commission responded to Coinbase's claims, reiterating its position that certain cryptocurrencies traded on the platform qualify as investment contracts and, therefore, must be registered with the SEC. The regulator noted that Coinbase "has always known" that the cryptocurrencies it offers are securities and claimed that the exchange has already acknowledged this in its documentation.

– Additionally, on October 3, the court rejected the SEC's motion for an interlocutory appeal in its case against Ripple. The agency wanted to appeal the court's decision that the sale of XRP on crypto exchanges does not constitute an investment contract. However, this plan by the officials fell through. Against this backdrop, XRP appreciated by 5% within 24 hours.

– In July, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed a lawsuit against the crypto lending platform Celsius. The crux of the accusation is that Celsius attracted billions of dollars through the illegal and unregistered sale of "cryptocurrencies recognized as securities," repeatedly misled investors about its financial condition, and manipulated the price of its own token (CEL). The SEC has also levelled fraud charges against Celsius founder Alex Mashinsky, with a court hearing set for September 17, 2024. The platform plans to partially repay its debt to creditors this year, transferring to them bitcoin, Ethereum, and shares in a new organization, NewCo, totalling $2.03 billion.

– Trader under the alias Bluntz is confident that bitcoin has "officially" entered a bull market and that all predictions of a drop to the $24,000 level are unfounded. In his opinion, the coin's rise above $27,000 confirms that BTC is currently in a bull market. "I think it's time to let go of any bearish bias," wrote Bluntz.

– Last week, we reported that the Artificial Intelligence from CoinCodex predicted the flagship crypto asset's price to be around $29,703 by Halloween (October 31st). This time, another AI, the machine learning algorithm of the forecasting platform PricePredictions, gave a similar result. According to its analysis, the BTC price on October 31st will hover around the psychologically important mark of $30,403. The forecast was made using several key technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), and others.

– In his forecast, trader, analyst, and founder of venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is optimistic about not only October but also Q4 of 2023. He attributes his positive outlook to the potential approval of spot bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) and the halving effect. The expert anticipates that the growth in the last quarter could elevate the price to around $40,000.
It's worth noting that the historical performance of BTC in this period has been quite mixed. For instance, in 2018, the digital asset's value declined by nearly half over three months, but a year earlier it had surged 142.2%.

– The analyst known as dave the wave believes that Ethereum will continue to depreciate against bitcoin at least until the end of 2023. The expert published a chart depicting the price dynamics of ETH relative to BTC, which shows a descending triangle indicating a fall in the altcoin's price.
Dave the wave drew an analogy to the trend observed from 2017 to 2018, suggesting that Ethereum will significantly devalue against bitcoin due to a strong BTC market rally. The chance for ETH to appreciate could come during the "altcoin season," which would begin after BTC reaches its peak value.
The analyst also made a long-term forecast on the price changes of bitcoin using logarithmic growth curves. According to this forecast, over the next 10 years, the cryptocurrency will outperform stocks in terms of investment returns and will become a primary means of wealth accumulation due to a significant increase in value.

– Bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad" and entrepreneur Robert Kiyosaki urged people to invest in the first cryptocurrency before the launch of the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). "The Fed's CBDC is coming," he wrote. "Privacy is gone. Big Brother will be watching. When the CBDC hits the market, gold, silver, bitcoin, and cash will become invaluable. Start accumulating them now before it's too late." It's worth noting that in February, Kiyosaki predicted that bitcoin would rise to $500,000 by 2025 and called it the best hedge in turbulent times, while also cautioning about the asset's volatility.

– The total value of cryptocurrencies stolen by hackers since the beginning of 2023 has exceeded $1.15 billion, according to calculations by PeckShield. Nearly a third of all losses occurred in September, with damages from 22 crypto project hacks during that month amounting to almost $356 million. In contrast, only $17 million was stolen in the previous month, suggesting that even hackers take a vacation in August.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 08, 2023, 09:33:30 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 09 - 13, 2023


EUR/USD: Will the Pair Reach 1:1 Parity?

Throughout 2023, the U.S. economy has effectively withstood aggressive interest rate hikes. The market-anticipated recession has yet to materialize, allowing the Federal Reserve to maintain its hawkish monetary stance. This has led to a sharp increase in Treasury yields and significant strengthening of the U.S. dollar. The yield on 10-year Treasuries plummeted 46% since March 2020, doubling the previous decline witnessed in 1981 amid aggressive monetary tightening by the U.S. central bank. As for the Dollar Index (DXY), it has remained above the critical level of 100.00 throughout the year, while EUR/USD has dropped 6.5% from its July highs.

On Tuesday, March 3, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds reached 4.88%. Many market participants believe that a 5.0% yield could be a tipping point for the U.S. economy, forcing the Federal Reserve into a dovish pivot. However, these are merely expectations that may be far from reality. On the same Tuesday, Loretta J. Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, stated that inflation is only expected to reach the target level of 2.0% by the end of 2025. She indicated that there are no immediate plans to lower interest rates and, furthermore, she is likely to support an interest rate increase at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting if the current economic situation remains stable.

The U.S. macroeconomic data released in the first half of the past week appeared somewhat lacklustre. The ADP report revealed the weakest employment growth in the private sector since January 2021, coming in at a mere 89K, against a forecast of 153K (and down from 180K the previous month). While business activity in the services sector did continue to grow for the ninth consecutive month, it decelerated in September, with the PMI index falling from 54.5 to 53.6. As for the manufacturing sector, business activity remained in contraction territory, with a PMI of 49.0. Although this was an improvement over the previous 47.6, it still fell below the 50.0 threshold, indicating economic contraction. As a result, Treasury yields declined, and stock indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq) along with EUR/USD turned upwards. Traders opted to liquidate their short positions on the pair in anticipation of the U.S. September labour market report, traditionally scheduled to be published on the first Friday of the following month, which in this case was October 6. More on this below.

If the latest U.S. statistics appeared unimpressive, the Eurozone's figures were even worse. According to official data from Eurostat published on Wednesday, October 4, retail sales in August contracted by 1.2% month-on-month, compared to a 0.1% decline in July. The market consensus had projected a decrease of only 0.3%. On an annual basis, the volume of retail sales fell by 2.1%, exceeding both July's 1.0% decline and the market forecast of 1.2%. Monthly Producer Price Inflation (PPI) in the Eurozone rose from 0.5% in July to 0.6% in August.

Assessing the inflation outlook in the Eurozone, the European Central Bank (ECB)'s Chief Economist, Philip Lane, cautiously stated that "we will not reach our 2% inflation target as quickly as we would the 4% mark." ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir was slightly more optimistic. "Core Eurozone inflation confirms our expectations," the official noted. "We are on a downward trajectory. [However], deflating inflation is taking a bit more time." Kazimir believes that September's 25 basis point rate hike in the Euro was the last one.

We have previously noted that there is no consensus within the ECB's leadership regarding future monetary policy. This was further confirmed by ECB Governing Council member Isabel Schnabel, who countered Peter Kazimir by stating that further rate hikes may eventually be necessary. She added that although the ECB currently does not foresee a deep downturn, "we cannot rule out a recession" going forward.

If the prospect of higher Euro borrowing costs remains uncertain, a rate reduction at this stage is definitely not on the table. This was confirmed on Thursday, October 5th, by ECB Vice-President Luis de Guindos, who stated that discussions about rate cuts are premature. Since the Federal Reserve also has no plans to turn dovish from its hawkish stance, the current interest rate differential of 5.50% for the dollar and 4.50% for the Euro gives a certain advantage to the American currency. The Reuters expert consensus forecast expects EUR/USD to further decline to $1.0400 within October, with 1 out of 20 surveyed specialists anticipating a 1:1 parity. Nonetheless, analysts predict that EUR/USD will rise by approximately 6% over the next year.

The highlight of the past week was the U.S. employment report. Bloomberg experts had anticipated that the number of new non-farm payroll jobs (NFP) created in September would be lower than in August: 70K compared to 187K the previous month. In reality, the figure came in at 336K, almost twice as high as the forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.8%.

Following the release of this data, which attests to the health of the American job market, EUR/USD initially declined but then quickly regained its footing and even advanced. As a result, the pair closed the trading week at the 1.0585 level. As of the evening of October 6th, when this overview was written, experts are equally divided on its near-term future, just like a week ago: a third are predicting further strengthening of the dollar and a decline in EUR/USD, another third anticipate an upward correction, and the final third are neutral.

As for technical analysis, among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, 65% favour the downside (red), and 35% are bullish (green). Most oscillators (60%) continue to side with the U.S. currency and are coloured red. Just 10% favour the euro, and half of those indicate overbought conditions. The remaining 30% hold a neutral stance.

Immediate support for the pair is found in the 1.0550-1.0560 area, followed by 1.0490, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance for the bulls is situated around 1.0600-1.0615, followed by 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0745-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0895-1.0930.

In the upcoming week, on Wednesday, October 11, inflation data for Germany (CPI) and the U.S. (PPI) will be released. On the same day, the minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be published, offering investors insights into the committee members' views on future monetary policy. Thursday, October 12th, is likely to experience increased volatility, as consumer inflation data (CPI) for the United States will be announced. Additionally, the traditional weekly report on initial jobless claims in the U.S. will be released on Thursday. The week will wrap up with the publication of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index on October 13 Traders should also be aware that Monday, October 9th, is a public holiday in the U.S., in observance of Columbus Day.

GBP/USD: Worst Currency of September

The British pound emerged as the worst performing G10 currency in September. Fuelling speculation about its future, the Bank of England (BoE) released a report on Thursday, October 5, indicating a significant rise in wages in the country. Expectations for wage growth over the next year also increased compared to August.

Certainly, the recent moderation in inflation is a positive development. However, economists at Germany's Commerzbank suggest that the wage growth dynamics indicate that inflation may be more stubborn than the Bank of England anticipates.

Survey results, also released on October 5, suggest that many market participants believe the BoE is not taking sufficient measures to combat rising prices. On the other hand, strategists at Japan's MUFG Bank argue that the "Bank of England has already gone too far in tightening policy." They write, "We see the potential for lower rates compared to other leading developed economies." There are clearly differing opinions, but one thing both camps agree on is that the British currency will continue to remain under pressure. At least until there is compelling evidence of sustainable declines in the inflation rate.

GBP/USD began the past week at a level of 1.2202 and returned almost to the same point ahead of the release of the U.S. employment report on Friday, October 6. The robust Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data temporarily strengthened the dollar. The week concluded with the European currency gaining the upper hand, closing the pair at 1.2237. However, the chart of the past two weeks still suggests a sideways trend. Analyst opinions on the pair's immediate future are as follows: 40% are bullish, another 40% are bearish, and the remaining 20% hold a neutral stance. Among trend indicators on the D1 chart, 65% are red, while 35% are green. As for the oscillators, 40% point to a decline in the pair, 10% point to an increase (all in the overbought zone), and the remaining 50% are neutral.

In a downward movement, the pair will find support levels and zones at 1.2195-1.2205, 1.2100-1.2115, 1.2140-1.2150, 1.2085, 1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair rises, it will encounter resistance at levels of 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2440-1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2600-1.2615, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Fresh GDP data for the United Kingdom is expected to be released on Thursday, October 12. After experiencing a decline of -0.5% in July, the indicator is anticipated to show a 0.2% growth on a monthly basis for August. No other significant economic events related to the country are expected for the upcoming week.

USD/JPY: Was There Really an Intervention?

(https://i.ibb.co/pfYSXjy/USDJPY-09-10-2023.jpg)

We suggested in our previous review that the "magic" number of 150.00 would serve as a signal to Japanese financial authorities to initiate currency interventions. Indeed, after USD/JPY slightly crossed this threshold on Tuesday, October 3, reaching a high of 150.15, the long-anticipated event occurred, within a matter of minutes, the pair plummeted nearly 300 points, halting its freefall at 147.28.

The prevailing market sentiment is that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has finally moved from verbal interventions to actual ones. Interestingly, the country's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, declined to comment on whether there was indeed a currency intervention. He merely obfuscated the issue by stating that "many factors determine whether movements in the currency market are excessive," and that "no changes have been made in how the government will address these issues." In short, interpret it as you will.

Of course, one cannot rule out the mass triggering of stop-orders upon breaching the key level of 150.00 (such "black swans" have been observed before). However, we believe that the episode was unlikely to have occurred without intervention from Japan's financial authorities.

After the sharp decline, the price has rebounded and is now approaching the ascending trend line from below. Whether the Bank of Japan's intervention (if it indeed occurred) has achieved its goal is difficult to say. Recalling similar scenarios from last autumn, the impact of such actions seemed to be only temporary, with market conditions reverting back to their previous state within a couple of months. However, could this latest move serve as a significant deterrent for USD/JPY bulls and allow the Japanese currency to regroup? The chances are there, particularly if the regulator actively intervenes to prevent the pair from rising back to the 150.00 level or higher.

The pair concluded the trading week at the 149.27 level. All 100% of the surveyed experts, invigorated by the events of October 10, voted for further yen strengthening and a downward movement for the pair. (It is worth noting here that even such unanimity offers no guarantees concerning the accuracy of the forecast.) Trend indicators on the D1 chart hold the opposite view—all 100% are still coloured in green. Among the oscillators, slightly fewer, 90%, remain in the green zone, with 10% having turned red. The nearest support level lies in the 149.15 area, followed by 148.80, 148.30-148.45, 147.95-148.05, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. Immediate resistance is at 149.70-150.15, followed by 150.40, 151.90 (the October 2022 high), and 153.15.

No significant economic data related to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. Additionally, the country will be observing a public holiday on Monday, October 9, in celebration of National Sports Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Uptober's Target is $30,000

As Q3 closed on September 30, the BTC/USD trading pair saw a 12% drop. Despite setbacks in July and August, bitcoin experienced its first profitable September since 2016, increasing from $26,012 to $26,992 within the month. TradingView data also highlighted a 6.1% rise in the market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector, moving from approximately $1.029 trillion at the beginning of September to $1.092 trillion by month's end.

Ran Neuner, the founder of Crypto Banter and a seasoned trader, underscored the importance of bitcoin's positive performance in September. He noted that in a year prior to a halving event, such as in 2015, a profitable September has historically been followed by a 70% surge in Q4. Analysts at Bitfinex echoed this sentiment, suggesting that a green September often presages a bullish trend in October.

The Bitfinex Alpha report further substantiated an optimistic forecast for October, citing futures market indicators. The data revealed that the current price is being maintained by a balance between short-term and long-term holders, implying that experienced long-term investors are steadfast in holding their coins. Furthermore, bitcoins that have been held for 6 to 12 months are predominantly dormant, and the supply of BTC that is over three years old has remained inactive since February 2023.

Santiment, a network analytics firm, reported that larger wallets, known as whales and sharks, holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC, have been quietly stockpiling both bitcoin and Tether (USDT) for the last six weeks. Their collective holdings have now reached a 2023 high of 13.03 million BTC, pointing to a promising long-term outlook for bitcoin.

It's well known that October follows September, and many investors have high hopes for this month. According to statistics, in the last eight years, bitcoin has only ended the month of October in the red once, in 2018. In other years, the monthly gains ranged from 5.5% to 48.5%. If we consider the entire history of the leading cryptocurrency, October has been a profitable month in eight out of ten instances, with an average gain of 22%. This seasonal phenomenon has been dubbed "Uptober."

The early days of October provided hope that the tradition of "Uptober" would continue in 2023. On Monday, October 2, bitcoin reached a local peak of around $28,562. However, disappointment set in later that same day as traders began to lock in profits, causing the coin to drop to the $27,500 zone. Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that this pullback was inevitable. Pressure tends to build when the digital currency gains value aggressively. Increased volatility is accompanied by heightened seller activity, as they aim to capitalize on the asset's surge.

McGlone is sceptical that bitcoin will reach $30,000 in the near future. The main factor hindering further growth of bitcoin is the strict policies of U.S. authorities. The repressive actions of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) are deterring institutional investors from entering the crypto space. Global recession risks are also dampening risk appetite. In such a scenario, stock markets will not be able to grow, emphasizes the Bloomberg strategist, adding that digital currencies will also suffer as a result.

Analysts at QCP Capital also believe that the resistance level for BTC/USD will be between $29,000 and $30,000. They warn that, despite the positive seasonality, the possibility of retesting the $25,000 level should not be ruled out.

However, not everyone agrees with this view. For example, a trader going by the handle "Bluntz" is confident that bitcoin has "officially" entered bullish territory and that all predictions of a drop to the $24,000 level are unfounded. In his opinion, the coin's rise above $27,000 confirms that bitcoin is currently in a bull market. "I think it's time to shed any bearish biases," wrote Bluntz.

Another well-known trader, analyst, and founder of the venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, is optimistic not only about October but also about Q4 2023 as a whole. The expert anticipates that growth in the final quarter could push the flagship cryptocurrency up to the $40,000 mark. However, it's worth noting that while historical data overwhelmingly favors October, the quarterly dynamics of bitcoin are not so clear-cut. For instance, the digital asset appreciated by 142.2% in 2017, but the following year it lost almost half its value over three months.

In our previous review, we reported that the Artificial Intelligence from CoinCodex had forecasted the flagship cryptocurrency to reach a value of $29,703 by Halloween (October 31). This time, another AI, the machine learning algorithm from the forecasting platform PricePredictions, has given a similar result. According to its analysis, the price of bitcoin will hover around the psychologically significant mark of $30,403 on October 31. This forecast was made using several key technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Bollinger Bands (BB), among others.

Concerning Ethereum, the primary competitor to bitcoin, an analyst known as Dave the Wave anticipates that Ethereum will sustain its depreciation against bitcoin at least through the end of 2023. Dave the Wave has published a trend chart for ETH/BTC, highlighting a descending triangle indicative of a price drop for the altcoin.

Drawing a comparison with trends from 2017 to 2018, Dave the Wave posits that Ethereum is poised for a significant devaluation relative to bitcoin, particularly due to a robust bitcoin rally. The potential for Ethereum to gain value appears limited to the so-called "altcoin season," which is projected to begin after bitcoin achieves its peak price.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 6, BTC/USD is trading in the area of $27,960, ETH/USD at $1,640, and ETH/BTC at 0.0588. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stands at $1.096 trillion, up from $1.075 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin has risen by 2 points over the week and currently sits squarely in the Neutral zone, at a score of 50.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 11, 2023, 10:38:26 AM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://i.ibb.co/0Fpjk4L/Crypto-News-11-10-2023.jpg)

– The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has stated that nearly 200 accounts on the crypto exchange Binance were used by HAMAS militants. The CFTC emphasized that exchange staff were aware that their platform was facilitating potentially illegal activities yet turned a blind eye and even joked about it in internal chats. According to the regulator, as early as February 2019, Binance's former Compliance Director Samuel Lim had received information regarding the use of the exchange by representatives of the movement. However, as Lim explained to a colleague, HAMAS members typically transferred "small amounts" that would unlikely even suffice for purchasing an AK-47.

– Warren Buffett's partner and Vice Chairman of American holding company Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger, stated that most investments in digital assets will ultimately become worthless. "Don't get me started on bitcoin. It's the dumbest investment I've ever seen," the 99-year-old investor expressed during the Zoomtopia online conference.
Munger also shared his views on artificial intelligence, noting that AI has actually been around for quite some time, tracing its roots back to the 1950s. "We've always had artificial intelligence. It's when software generates even more software," he said. However, in his opinion, the technology is "generating hype, probably more than it deserves."

– U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. told Bitcoin Magazine in an interview that he intends to defend bitcoin if elected as the President of the United States. He also expressed scepticism towards Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs). According to Kennedy, national digital currencies could become a tool for governments to control individuals' financial transactions. "The freedom to transact is as important as freedom of speech," the politician stated.

– Sam Altman, the CEO of ChatGPT, described bitcoin as a "super logical step on the technology tree." The artificial intelligence creator appreciates the idea that humanity now has an international currency beyond the control of any single government. The OpenAI leader believes that corruption is a key impediment to societal progress, and that bitcoin is poised to overcome this obstacle.
Altman also expressed disappointment with the U.S. government's stance on the cryptocurrency industry: "I'm disheartened by many of the actions taken by the U.S. government recently. The war on cryptocurrencies seems to be never-ending, and authorities want to take everything under their control." Like Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Altman believes that if the United States launches a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), it will become a state tool for surveillance over citizens.

– Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes that the crypto market is entering "one of its most brutal" phases in its cycle. According to the expert, bitcoin's dominance in the market capitalization of the crypto sector is increasing amidst a decline in the price of altcoins and diminishing investor interest in this asset class.
Using Fibonacci retracement levels, Cowen predicts that BTC dominance will likely peak at 60%, as it did in the previous cycle. The analyst emphasized that this metric is unlikely to rise to 65% or 70%, primarily due to the stablecoin market. (As of October 10, according to CoinMarketCap, bitcoin's share in the overall market capitalization of the crypto market was 49.92%.)

– Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has stated that the price of the leading cryptocurrency could reach $70,000 next year, and between $750,000 to $1 million by 2026. He justified his prediction based on factors such as the asset's limited supply, the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, and geopolitical uncertainty. "I think this will be the biggest boom in financial markets in the history of mankind. Bitcoin will skyrocket to absurd levels, the Nasdaq will soar to absurd levels, and the S&P 500 will rise to absurd levels," Hayes declared.

– Analyst Nicholas Merten holds a diametrically opposite view. He believes that bitcoin could significantly crash due to actions taken by the Federal Reserve, potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn in the U.S. If commodities such as oil, natural gas, and uranium begin to stabilize or decline in price, Merten sees this as a sign of an impending short-term recession. In that scenario, he suggests that stocks could fall by approximately 33%, similar to the correction that occurred in October 2022. In turn, bitcoin would react to this situation by dropping to the $15,000-$17,000 range.
Merten is convinced that a sustained bullish trend in the market is unlikely until the Federal Reserve begins to increase liquidity in the economy. "Bitcoin thrives when there's an increase in the money supply in the market and when investors are in a risk-on mood. However, at the moment, neither of these conditions is met," Nicholas Merten explained.

– A bitcoin mining farm called Lava Pool has been launched in El Salvador, utilizing renewable geothermal energy. The project is being developed by Volcano Energy and Luxor Technology, with 23% of the net income being allocated to the country's government. According to Volcano Energy's management, this move validates El Salvador's efforts to integrate bitcoin into its national energy infrastructure, providing rapid income and flexible load management options for the power grid.
The described initiative is part of a more ambitious project by Volcano Energy aimed at establishing a global bitcoin mining station powered by renewable solar and wind energy. Within the framework of this project, plans are underway to construct a renewable energy generation park with a capacity of 241 MW.

– Comparing the current dynamics of bitcoin to what transpired before and after the halvings in 2015 and 2019 indicates that the market is moving in the same direction as it did then. After its summer peak, the current coin price is undergoing a downward correction, but this is not surprising: typically, 200 days before a halving, the leading cryptocurrency could lose up to 60-65% of its value before resuming its growth trajectory.
Many experts are predicting significant price increases for bitcoin in 2024. For instance, analysts at JP Morgan suggest a price of $45,000, while those at Standard Chartered forecast $100,000. Writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki and cryptographer Adam Back also target the $100,000 mark. Fundstrat Research founder Tom Lee envisions BTC at $180,000. Venture capitalist Tim Draper expects $250,000, and billionaire Mike Novogratz, along with ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, project the coin to grow to $500,000 and $1 million next year, respectively.
The current optimism among investors can also be attributed to the present price dynamics of the digital gold: despite receding from its summer peak, investments in BTC have yielded a return of more than 60% since the beginning of the year.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 15, 2023, 08:09:23 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 16 - 20, 2023


EUR/USD: Inflation Drives Trends

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At the beginning of last week, the Dollar Index (DXY) continued its decline that began on October 3, while global equity markets experienced growth. The dovish stance of Federal Reserve officials and the falling yields on U.S. Treasury bonds were driving factors. In recent days, the regulators have been actively persuading the market of the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, suggesting a potentially prolonged pause in the cycle of monetary tightening. For instance, on Wednesday, October 11, Christopher Waller, a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, stated that "tightening in financial markets is doing some of our work for us," allowing the central bank to maintain a wait-and-see approach.

On the same day, the minutes of the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were released. The document, if not dovish, was certainly not hawkish. It is worth noting that the Committee left the interest rate unchanged in September. As for future prospects, the minutes indicated that Fed leaders acknowledge "high uncertainty" regarding the future of the U.S. economy and recognize the need to maintain a cautious approach to monetary policy.

Market sentiment began to gradually shift following the publication of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI). The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the PPI rose by 0.5% in September, exceeding the forecast of 0.3%. The core PPI (MoM) increased by 0.3%, compared to the expected 0.2%. On an annual basis, it reached 2.2%, surpassing the forecast of 1.6% and the previous figure of 2%. This unexpected surge in industrial inflation led to speculation that consumer inflation could also exceed expectations.

This indeed materialized. Data released on Thursday, October 12, showed that inflation in September increased by 0.4%, higher than the 0.3% forecast. On an annual basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also exceeded expectations, coming in at 3.7% against a forecast of 3.6%. Market participants concluded that such inflationary growth could prompt Federal Reserve officials to shift from a dovish to a hawkish stance, potentially raising the interest rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% in the upcoming FOMC meeting. Amidst such sentiment, the dollar, along with the yields on U.S. government bonds, sharply increased, while equity markets declined. The DXY reached a new local peak, hitting 106.35. Yields on 10-year Treasuries rose to 4.65%, and 2-year yields reached 5.05%. EUR/USD reversed course, dropping from a high of 1.0639 to 1.0525 in just a few hours.

Germany's CPI was also released on Wednesday, September 11, showing an annual consumer inflation of 4.3% and a monthly figure of 0.3%, both of which were fully in line with forecasts and previous data. Joachim Nagel, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and the head of Bundesbank, stated that inflation in Germany has reached its peak. By 2025, he projects that the tightening of monetary policy will steer inflation in the Eurozone down to 2.7%, according to his opinion. "Until we have defeated high inflation rates, we will not rest," he assured.

The minutes from the ECB's September meeting revealed that a solid majority of the Governing Council members supported a 25 basis point interest rate hike for the euro. In their view, any pause might signal that the tightening cycle has come to an end or that the Governing Council is more concerned about the state of the economy and a possible recession than about excessive inflation. These minutes were published on Thursday, October 12.

Some Council members advocate keeping the key rates at their current level, notably François Villeroy de Galhau, the President of the Bank of France. In his opinion, patience in monetary policy currently holds more importance than activity, stating that it would be much better to achieve the goal through a "soft landing" rather than a "hard one."

With a high degree of probability, the European Central Bank will raise the interest rate to 4.75% at its next meeting on October 26. Even after this increase, the rate will still remain below that of the Federal Reserve. Combined with the apparent weakness of the Eurozone economy, this will continue to exert pressure on the euro. The situation is further complicated by a potential spike in energy prices due to the ongoing military actions in Ukraine and the recent escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as winter approaches.

EUR/USD closed at a level of 1.0507 last week. As of the evening of October 13, when this review was written, experts were divided on its near-term prospects: 80% favoured a northward correction for the pair, while 20% took a neutral stance. The number of votes in favor of further dollar strengthening stood at 0%.

Regarding technical analysis, among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, 100% sided with the bears. A majority (60%) of oscillators continue to favor the U.S. currency and are coloured in red. 30% sided with the euro, with the remaining 10% taking a neutral stance.

Near-term support for the pair is located around 1.0450, followed by 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area of 1.0600-1.0620, then 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0895-1.0930.

The upcoming week's economic calendar highlights several key events. On Tuesday, October 17, data on U.S. retail sales will be released. The Eurozone's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is scheduled for publication on Wednesday. Thursday, October 19, will feature the release of the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and the customary data on initial jobless claims in the United States. A speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is also planned for the evening of that Thursday.

GBP/USD: It Was Tough, and It Will Be Tough

Overall, the GBP/USD chart closely resembled that of EUR/USD: rising until Thursday, followed by a reversal and decline after the release of consumer inflation data in the United States. In addition to the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy, the British pound faced additional pressure from UK industrial production data.

According to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published on Thursday, the country's industrial sector activity declined again in August. Manufacturing output fell by -0.8%, compared to a forecast of -0.4% and a -1.2% decline in July. The overall industrial production dropped by -0.7%, against expected -0.2% and -1.1% in the previous month. On an annual basis, although manufacturing output did increase by 2.8% in August, it fell short of the expected 3.4%. The overall volume of industrial production also missed expectations, increasing only by 1.3% instead of the anticipated 1.7%.

Despite the fact that the UK's GDP, after contracting by -0.6% in July, increased by 0.2% in August, the risks of economic growth deceleration have heightened. This is largely due to developments in Israel – escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt the global supply chain, and rising prices for natural energy resources, primarily oil, will increase inflationary pressures.

Moreover, British companies have not only slowed their production growth rate due to weakened demand but have also postponed their plans for capacity expansion due to higher interest rates on loans.

This situation poses a dilemma for officials at the Bank of England (BoE), who are caught between trying to tame inflation and preventing the economy from slipping into a deep recession. Speaking at the annual meeting of the Institute of International Finance in Morocco on Friday, October 13, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stated that "the last decision was a difficult one" and that "future decisions will also be difficult." It's worth noting that the interest rate was left unchanged at 5.25% in September. The next BoE meeting is scheduled for November 2, and whether the regulator will opt to raise the rate even by a few basis points remains a significant question.

GBP/USD closed the past week at a mark of 1.2143. Analyst opinions on its near-term future were surprisingly unanimous, with 100% forecasting an increase for the pair. (It's appropriate to remind that even such unanimity offers no guarantees regarding the accuracy of the forecast). On the contrary, trend indicators on the D1 chart are entirely bearish: 100% of them point to a decline and are coloured in red. Oscillators indicate a fall for the pair at 50%, an increase at 40%, with the remaining 10% maintaining a neutral stance. Should the pair trend downwards, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2100-1.2115, 1.2030-1.2050, 1.1960, and 1.1800. If the pair rises, it will meet resistance at levels of 1.2205-1.2220, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2760, and 1.2800-1.2815.

Notable events for the upcoming week include Tuesday, October 17, when data on the state of the UK labour market will be released. On Wednesday, October 18, consumer price index (CPI) data will be published for both the Eurozone and the United Kingdom. (Particularly high volatility can be expected for EUR/GBP on this day). Also of interest is Friday, October 20, when retail sales data for the United Kingdom will be made available.

USD/JPY: Coming Full Circle

What's going on in Japan? Well, the situation remains largely as usual. After plummeting to a level of 147.24 on October 3, USD/JPY resumed its upward trajectory, marking the week's high at 149.82, just shy of the key 150.00 level. It has been noted multiple times that the divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will consistently push the pair upwards. Any currency interventions by Japanese financial authorities could only result in a temporary strengthening of the yen.

According to the Bank of Japan, producer inflation has been slowing for the ninth consecutive month. Producer prices, which rose by 3.3% in August with a September forecast of 2.3%, actually increased by a minimal 2.0% year-over-year, the lowest since March 2021. However, with regard to consumer inflation, the BoJ is considering raising the target for the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the 2023/24 fiscal year from 2.5% to around 3%. This was reported on Tuesday, October 10, by the Kyodo news agency, citing informed sources.

Evaluating the state of Japan's economy and its monetary policy, S&P Global rating agency believes that "interest rates in Japan will start rising from 2024." However, the agency's view contradicts statements made by Bank of Japan (BoJ) officials. For instance, BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi stated on Thursday, October 13th, that "an interest rate hike would be triggered by achieving the target inflation rate of 2%," and that this target is still far from being reached. According to him, "there's no need to rush," and "there's no urgent need to adjust the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy." From Noguchi's statements, one could infer that the Japanese regulator would not even be contemplating the topic of interest rates, keeping them at a negative level of -0.1%, were it not for the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Noguchi stated that rate hikes "don't necessarily reflect inflation expectations in Japan, but rather U.S. interest rates.".

USD/JPY ended the trading week at the level of 149.53. While the vast majority of experts predict a weakening of the dollar against the euro and pound, only 25% of those surveyed agreed with this view when it comes to the yen. A significant 75% forecast further weakening of the yen and strengthening of the U.S. currency. All 100% of trend indicators remain in the green. Among oscillators, slightly fewer, 80%, stay green, 10% have turned red, and the remaining 10% are in a neutral gray. The nearest support level is located at 149.15, followed by 148.15-148.40, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20, 140.60-140.75, 138.95-139.05, and 137.25-137.50. The closest resistance is at 149.70-150.15, then 150.40, 151.90 (the October 2022 high), and 153.15.

No significant economic data pertaining to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Where Will Bitcoin Fly Next?

Last week, bitcoin began charting its own course, detaching itself from its "big brothers" and disregarding both direct and inverse correlations. Despite rising stock indices and a weakening dollar, the leading cryptocurrency fell and moved into a sideways trend when the dollar started to gain strength.

BTC/USD has been trading within a range of $24,300-$31,300 since mid-March. Over the last eight weeks, its upper boundary has dipped even further, settling into a $28,100-$28,500 zone. As this range has narrowed, short-term speculators and retail traders have become less active, causing the realized capitalization indicator to hover near zero. Long-term holders, also known as "hodlers," are adding to their BTC wallets rather than depleting them, purchasing around 50,000 coins per month.

Historically, such market stagnation has preceded significant price movements. Many investors are now speculating that triggers for another bull rally could include the upcoming 2024 halving event and the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. MicroStrategy, an American technology company, has accumulated 158,245 BTC, which is worth approximately $4.24 billion. In addition, investment giant BlackRock submitted an application for a spot bitcoin ETF in June and acquired $400 million worth of shares in leading miners.

The Bull Run could potentially commence right now; however, Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone believes that stringent U.S. policies, particularly those by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), are the main obstacles hindering bitcoin's growth. ChatGPT CEO Sam Altman also shares disappointment over the U.S. government's approach towards the crypto industry. "The war on cryptocurrencies seems endless, and the authorities appear keen on taking everything under their control," stated the Artificial Intelligence entrepreneur. Altman, along with U.S. presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., thinks that the government's hostility towards independent digital assets is partly due to their desire to introduce their own Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). Should this wish materialize, it would provide the state with another surveillance tool over its citizens.

Another pressure point on virtual assets comes from the monetary policy of the U.S. Federal Reserve. Analyst Nicholas Merten opines that bitcoin could take a significant hit due to the Fed's actions, potentially leading to a prolonged economic downturn in the United States. If commodity prices, such as oil, natural gas, and uranium, start to stabilize or decline, this could signal an impending short-term recession. In such a scenario, Merten believes, stock prices could drop by approximately 33%, similar to the correction that occurred in October 2022. Bitcoin, in response, would likely plummet to a range of $15,000-$17,000.

The analyst is convinced that a sustained bull trend in the market is unlikely until the Federal Reserve begins to inject more liquidity into the economy. "Bitcoin thrives when there is an increase in the money supply and when investors are risk tolerant. At present, neither of these conditions is met," explained Nicholas Merten.

The current dynamics of bitcoin seem to align with what was observed before and after the halvings in 2016 and 2020. Following its summer peak, the coin is experiencing a downward correction; however, this isn't surprising. Typically, around 200 days before a halving, the leading cryptocurrency could lose up to 60-65% of its value but then would resume its growth trajectory.

Many experts predict a significant surge in bitcoin prices in 2024. Investor optimism is also fuelled by the current price trend of this digital gold: despite the pullback from its summer high, investments in bitcoin have yielded more than 60% returns since the beginning of the year.

JP Morgan experts forecast a price rise to $45,000 in 2024, while Standard Chartered predicts it will reach $100,000. Author and investor Robert Kiyosaki and cryptographer Adam Back also target the $100,000 mark. Fundstrat Research founder Tom Lee envisions bitcoin at $180,000, while venture capitalist Tim Draper predicts a $250,000 valuation. Billionaire Mike Novogratz and ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood project the coin's rise to $500,000 and $1 million, respectively, for the next year.

Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has set a "modest" target of $70,000 for bitcoin next year. As for the $750,000 to $1 million range, Hayes believes BTC/USD will only reach that level by 2026. He justifies his forecast based on the asset's limited supply, the prospect of spot bitcoin ETF approvals, and geopolitical uncertainty. "I think this will be the greatest financial markets boom in human history. Bitcoin will soar to absurd levels, Nasdaq will rise to absurd levels, and the S&P 500 will climb to absurd levels," stated Hayes.

Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's partner and the Vice Chairman of American holding company Berkshire Hathaway, has predicted a dire future for digital assets. In his view, the majority of investments in these assets will eventually become worthless. "Don't get me started on bitcoin. It's the dumbest investment I've ever seen," the 99-year-old investor expressed during the Zoomtopia online conference.

As of the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, October 13, the total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.046 trillion, down from $1.096 trillion a week ago. bitcoin's share in the overall market has increased from 39.18% at the beginning of the year to 49.92%. Analyst Benjamin Cowen believes the crypto market is entering "one of its most brutal" phases. According to the expert, bitcoin's dominance is rising amid falling altcoin prices and decreased investor interest in this asset class. Utilizing Fibonacci retracement levels, Cowen anticipates that this dominance figure will likely peak at 60%, as it did in the last cycle, but will probably not rise to 65% or 70% due to the stablecoin market. BTC/USD closed at $27,075 on October 13th. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index for bitcoin has dropped from 50 to 44 points over the week, moving back from the Neutral zone to the Fear zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 18, 2023, 01:52:15 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– On October 16, the bitcoin exchange rate soared to $30,102 before plummeting to $27,728. Following BTC, other digital assets also experienced a sharp increase in price, only to subsequently decline steeply. According to Coinglass data, the surge in prices led to the liquidation of over 33,000 trading positions, resulting in trader losses of $154 million. Of this amount, $92.0 million was attributed to bitcoin, $22.7 million to Ethereum, and $4.6 million to Solana.
The spike in prices occurred after Cointelegraph published a report stating that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). It later emerged that the news was false. Cointelegraph's editorial team apologized for disseminating inaccurate information. The publication explained that one of its staff members had seen the news about the approval of the BTC ETF on Platform X (formerly Twitter) and decided to publish it as quickly as possible, without conducting fact-checking or obtaining approval from the supervising editor. Representatives from the SEC also emphasized that "the SEC itself is the best source of information about the SEC," and advised users to "exercise caution regarding what they read online."
In response, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink clarified that he could not comment on the status of the application's review. The executive also believes that the bitcoin rally was not so much driven by rumours of the approval of a spot BTC ETF, but rather by people's desire to utilize quality assets. He included bitcoin, gold, and Treasury bonds in this category of quality assets.

– Opinions among crypto industry representatives are divided regarding what lies ahead for BTC. For example, trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the false report will not hinder the cryptocurrency's growth. According to his observations, the coin has already entered a phase of positive movement. "The trend is already upward. The lows have been set for us to buy [cryptocurrency]. Sooner or later, a bitcoin ETF will enter the market; it just won't happen today," says the head of Eight.
The authors of the analytical channel Root on Platform X (formerly known as Twitter) also think that the false news did not exert significant pressure on the cryptocurrency. In their view, the coin's pump, despite the subsequent correction, has actually helped improve its position. However, there is also a substantial portion of the crypto community that holds a negative outlook, predicting that the coin could drop to the $19,000-$23,000 range.

– The founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, Anthony Scaramucci, believes that the first cryptocurrency is "in many ways more valuable than gold" and could "easily" reach a market capitalization of $15 trillion. According to his calculations, at such a capitalization, the price of bitcoin would be approximately $700,000.
Scaramucci asserts that the current financial system is "broken." "Strange things could happen when you see countries that are hostile to the U.S. trading in bitcoin or other assets, distancing themselves from the dollar because the United States has used its currency to assert its personal geopolitical will," he said. However, Scaramucci clarified that bitcoin is unlikely to become the "universal standard of money," as some crypto maximalists desire.

– Italian car manufacturer Ferrari has added digital assets as a payment method in the U.S. According to Reuters, this feature will be extended to Europe in Q1 2024. Initially, the company is accepting bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin USDC.
Ferrari management stated that the decision was made in response to customer requests. "Some of these are Newbie trader investors who have built their fortunes on digital assets. Others are more traditional investors looking to diversify their portfolios," company representatives explained.

– The market capitalization of the cryptocurrency sector could increase by $1 trillion if spot bitcoin ETFs are approved in the U.S., according to analysts at CryptoQuant. They believe that the chances of such an outcome have significantly increased following the legal victories of Ripple and Grayscale against the SEC. It should be noted that the deadline for the SEC's decisions on applications from BlackRock and other companies is set for March 2024.
Experts highlight that a positive decision would lead to a new wave of adoption of this asset class by institutional investors. Approximately $155 billion could flow into the bitcoin market, raising its capitalization from the current $543 billion to nearly $700 billion. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could reach $100,000 or even $200,000, according to a study conducted by Finbold.
Finbold also consulted PricePredictions' artificial intelligence for forecasts. According to the AI calculations, after the approval of a bitcoin ETF, the flagship crypto asset could quickly reach the $100,000 mark. PricePredictions emphasized that additional factors such as the general acceptance of bitcoin, actions of institutional investors, regulatory activity, and overall macroeconomic conditions will play a significant role.
As for the short-term forecast, the AI predicts that by November 1, 2023, the coin will reach a value of approximately $29,576, which is about 4% higher than its current price.

– According to data from the Wall Street Journal, the U.S. Government owns approximately 200,000 bitcoins, valued at over $5.65 billion. These assets were primarily confiscated from cybercriminals and participants in illegal darknet activities. An interesting fact is that, according to research by specialists at Morgan Creek Capital, the U.S. Government held only 69,640 BTC last year. This significant increase indicates that the U.S. has substantially ramped up its efforts to curb criminal activity and the illicit use of cryptocurrencies.

– Edward Snowden, a former employee of the CIA and the National Security Agency (NSA) of the United States, is known for having stolen 1.7 million confidential files and leaking this classified information to The Guardian and The Washington Post newspapers in 2013. The data pertained to global mass surveillance conducted by American intelligence agencies. Following this, he fled and found asylum in Russia. According to Snowden, he used bitcoins 10 years ago to pay for the servers he used to leak the secret documents.
Now, speaking at a conference in Amsterdam, the former spy has stated that bitcoin lacks real anonymity, allowing governments to easily track the individuals behind certain transactions. Snowden spoke about government and regulatory bodies attempting to control bitcoin and the entire industry, noting that the creation of a bitcoin ETF is actually another attempt to "tame" BTC.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 22, 2023, 11:16:03 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 23 - 27, 2023


EUR/USD: No Interest Rate Hikes from the Fed and ECB in the Near Future?

Starting from the last days of September, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has been trading within a sideways channel. Macroeconomic data released last week did not provide a clear advantage to either the U.S. or the European currency. On Tuesday, October 17, U.S. retail sales data was published, showing a monthly increase of 0.7%. Although this figure was lower than the previous 0.8%, it substantially exceeded the market's average forecast of 0.3%. On the same day, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index for the Eurozone was also released, outperforming expectations with a reading of 2.3, considerably better than the forecast of -8, and marking a full rebound from the previous negative figure of -8.9.

On Wednesday, October 18, revised data on consumer inflation in the Eurozone was released. The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched the forecast and was ultimately assessed at 4.3% year-on-year (YoY), compared to 5.2% the previous month. On Thursday, October 19, the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. came in at 198K, surpassing expectations and falling below both the prior figure of 211K and the market forecast of 212K.

Taking a broader view of the U.S. economy, we generally observe strong employment and GDP growth rates, a deceleration in inflation, increased consumer activity, and a real estate market that remains relatively stable despite rising mortgage rates. All these factors point to the appropriateness of another rate hike, which should, in turn, push the DXY higher. However, based on statements from Federal Reserve officials, it seems unlikely that a rate hike will occur at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on November 1.

Specifically, Patrick Harker, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, stated that economic pressure should not be created by increasing borrowing costs. Echoing Harker's sentiments, Lorie Logan, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, noted that although "desired progress is being observed in the fight against inflation, it is still too high." She added that "the economy continues to demonstrate strong performance, and labour markets remain tight," yet "the Fed still has some time to observe the economy and markets before making a decision on monetary policy.".

Jerome Powell's speech at the New York Economic Club on Thursday, November 19, did not meet the expectations of dollar hawks, leading EUR/USD to rise above 1.0615. According to economists at Rabobank, the Federal Reserve Chairman attempted to keep the door open for various options while maintaining a neutral stance. Rabobank believes that U.S. economic indicators are likely to sustain the possibility for further rate hikes. However, with less than a week and a half remaining until the next FOMC meeting, the current "neutral dynamics provide no basis to expect a rate hike on November 1st." Nonetheless, they note that "this option remains open for the December meeting." Despite that, economists at the bank still expect "the bond market to do the Fed's job, making further rate hikes redundant. However, if economic data remain strong, the FOMC will eventually have to resume the rate hike cycle at some point."

Analysts at the Netherlands' largest banking group, ING, opined that while the Fed Chairman's comments were perceived as dovish and led to some weakening of the U.S. currency, the dollar appears more inclined to rise than to further fall in the short term. Economists at Germany's Commerzbank characterized the mood among Fed officials as cautiously hawkish rather than dovish. They also see little chance for another rate hike in the current climate. "Indeed, it seems that the Fed has reached its peak, although Jerome Powell did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike depending on incoming data. However, monetary policy currently plays a secondary role for the market. Geopolitical risks have taken the forefront, and the dollar continues to be in demand as a safe haven," they commented. The bank's experts forecast that although it may be challenging for the dollar to continue rising in such a scenario, high oil prices will provide support.

At France's Societe Generale, it is believed that "the narrative about a higher rate over a longer term, both from the Fed and the ECB, points to a gradual decline of the euro." According to the bank's experts, "data from the Eurozone is not brilliant, and the divergence between growth forecasts in the U.S. and the Eurozone suggests that a slow movement toward parity [1.000], but not beyond it, appears likely.".

As of the time of writing this review, EUR/USD has evidently not reached parity and concluded the past week at 1.0593. Expert opinions on its near-term future are divided as follows: 50% voted for a stronger dollar, 35% foresee the pair trending upward, and 15% have adopted a neutral stance.

Turning to technical analysis, the outlook is also mixed. Among the trend indicators on the D1 chart, the ratio stands at 1:1: 50% in favour of reds (bearish) and 50% on the side of greens (bullish). Oscillators show 40% siding with the European currency, a mere 15% in favour of the dollar, with the remaining 45% taking a neutral position. The immediate support levels for the pair are situated around 1.0550, followed by 1.0485-1.0510, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the 1.0600-1.0620 zone, then at 1.0670-1.0700, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0945-1.0975.

The upcoming week promises to be highly eventful. On Tuesday, October 24, a slew of Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data will be released across various sectors of the German, Eurozone, and U.S. economies. The following day, October 25, will bring U.S. housing market data, along with remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its meeting where Governing Council members are expected to make a decision on the euro interest rate, which according to consensus forecasts, is likely to remain at its current level of 4.50%. Importantly, not only the decision itself but also subsequent statements and comments from the ECB leadership will be of significance. On the same day, the U.S. will release durable goods orders data as well as preliminary GDP figures for Q3 of the current year. The workweek will conclude on October 27 with the release of U.S. personal consumption expenditure data.

GBP/USD: Will the BoE Rate Remain Unchanged as Well?

At the beginning of this month, specifically on October 4, GBP/USD trended upwards, moving from a level of 1.2037 to reach 1.2337 within a week. However, resistance around the 1.2320 zone and a trendline clearly visible on the D1 and W1 timeframes halted the bullish momentum, sending the pair back downwards. As a result, the British currency has lost approximately 7.5% against the dollar since mid-July. The driving factors behind this are not merely technical analysis but also the prevailing economic and geopolitical landscape.

Amid tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing escalation of armed conflict between Israel and Hamas, investors are turning back to the dollar, viewing it as a safe-haven currency. Naturally, the rising cost of energy commodities is also affecting prices in the United Kingdom, which will undoubtedly put pressure on the country's economy and its currency, often considered by investors to be a riskier asset.

It's worth noting that at the beginning of the year, experts predicted that the United Kingdom would slide into a recession. So far, those forecasts have not materialized, although the economy is teetering on the edge, with the current annual GDP growth rate at 0.6% (compared to 2.1% in the United States). The situation could deteriorate by year-end, as high energy prices amid winter cold spells could further fuel inflation. It's already observable that the country's inflation slowdown has stalled, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been hovering around 6.8-6.7% year-on-year for the third consecutive month.

In such a scenario, the Bank of England (BoE) might very well opt to focus on supporting the economy over combating inflation. Although some representatives of the central bank have stated that the issue of raising interest rates remains open, the recent interview given by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey to the Belfast Telegraph appeared rather dovish, neutralizing the effect of Jerome Powell's similarly dovish comments. Mr. Bailey indicated that he expects "a noticeable decrease" in inflation in the coming month. "Looking at September's inflation data, we can say that core inflation has dropped a bit compared to our expectations, which is quite encouraging," added Bailey, sending GBP/USD into a minor knockdown.

Pressure on the pound was also exerted by the UK retail sales data released on Friday, October 20. According to the Office for National Statistics, retail sales declined by -0.9% month-on-month in September, significantly below the -0.1% forecast and the previous 0.4% value.

At the moment, the situation for the pound remains complicated. It's unclear how the BoE will react to the latest data. Most likely, until the upcoming meeting on November 2, the central bank will adopt a "close your eyes and hope for the best" approach. Meanwhile, analysts from Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and RBC are in agreement that the rate hike cycle in the United Kingdom has likely come to an end. At the very least, the probability of a rate hike in the upcoming BoE meeting is estimated to be below 50%.

The weekly low for GBP/USD was recorded at 1.2089, while the week closed at 1.2163. When polled about the near-term future of the pair, 40% of analysts voted for its rise. The majority (60%), however, believe that the pair will continue its move toward the 1.2000 target. On the D1 timeframe, trend indicators are unanimously (100%) pointing to a decline, displayed in red. Oscillators are less decisive: 65% indicate a decline, 15% point to a rise, and the remaining 20% are neutral.

In terms of support levels and zones, if the pair continues to move southward, it will encounter 1.2085-1.2130, 1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800. On the flip side, if the pair rises, it will face resistance at 1.2190-1.2215, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2450, 1.2510, 1.2550-1.2575, and 1.2690-1.2710 levels.

Tuesday, October 24 is noteworthy in the economic calendar for the upcoming week. Data on the UK labor market and business activity will be released on this day.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 22, 2023, 11:20:35 AM
USD/JPY: Amidst Prolonged Uncertainty

Many times have we heard these reassuring statements from Japanese officials about everything and... nothing! Let's take, for example, some quotes from Friday, October 20. First, from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda: "The Japanese economy is recovering at a moderate pace. […] Uncertainty regarding Japan's economy is very high. […] Inflation rates will likely slow down and then pick up again. [But] overall, Japan's financial system remains stable."

Next, from Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki: "It is important for currencies to move stably and reflect fundamental indicators. […] Exchange rates are influenced by various factors. I will not comment on currency levels in the Forex market. [And] I will not comment on our response to the currency market situation."

And, as the cherry on top, a quote from the Bank of Japan's latest report, also published on October 20: "Although the country's financial system is generally stable, the 'stress period may be further prolonged due to the ongoing tightening of central banks' monetary policy and concerns about slowing economic growth rates in foreign countries." In summary, Japan, on one hand, is doing well, but on the other, is experiencing stress caused by other central banks that are tightening their monetary policy and raising interest rates.

As experts note, the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-accommodative monetary policy, persistently ignoring the risks of rising inflationary pressures in the country. On Tuesday, October 17, Bloomberg reported that the Bank of Japan's new core CPI forecast for the 2023 fiscal year is likely to approach 3.0%, compared to 2.5% previously.

The fact that interest rates in Japan remain very low due to yield curve control policy should lead to a further decline in the yen against the dollar. This decline could cease under two conditions: if the dollar interest rates decline or if the Bank of Japan abandons its YCC (Yield Curve Control) policy. Both could potentially begin to happen as early as mid-2024, but certainly not now. (Although one should not forget the possibility of currency interventions by the Japanese Ministry of Finance).

According to strategists at Societe Generale, "if we see further increases in yields in the U.S. and no more than a change in the inflation forecast by the Bank of Japan at its meeting on October 31, then another surge [in USD/JPY] above 150.00 is practically inevitable." "The yen has every chance of becoming one of the most successful currencies in 2024," Societe Generale believes, "but predicting when USD/JPY will peak is as easy or difficult as determining when the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds will peak."

Amid a prolonged atmosphere of uncertainty, USD/JPY ended the previous trading week at 149.85. When it comes to the pair's short-term outlook, a mere 15% of experts foresee a renewed push towards the 150.00 mark. An additional 20% predict a downward correction, while the majority, 65%, remain noncommittal. On the D1 timeframe, all trend indicators are unanimously signalling 'buy' with a green coloration. Likewise, 100% of oscillators are green, although 40% indicate that the pair may be overbought. Immediate support can be found in the 149.60 area, followed by zones at 148.30-148.65, 146.85-147.25, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and finally 142.20. On the upside, resistance is present at 150.00-150.15, then at 150.40, followed by the October 2022 high of 151.90, and 153.15.

No significant economic data concerning the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. The only noteworthy item is the publication of the Tokyo Consumer Price Index on Friday, October 27.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: The Real Market Surge Triggered by Fake News About BTC-ETF

(https://i.ibb.co/6gYfCzV/BTCUSD-23-10-2023.jpg)

Undoubtedly, the most significant day of the past week was Monday, October 16. On this day, the bitcoin price soared to $30,102 before plummeting to $27,728. Following BTC, other digital assets also saw a sharp price increase, followed by a steep decline. According to Coinglass data, the price surge led to the liquidation of over 33,000 trading positions, with traders incurring losses totalling $154 million. Of this amount, bitcoin accounted for $92.0 million in losses, Ethereum for $22.7 million, and Solana for $4.6 million.

The surge in quotations occurred after Cointelegraph published news that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) had approved BlackRock's application for a spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF). It was later revealed that the news was fake. Cointelegraph's editorial team apologized for publishing the false news. The publication clarified that one of their staff had seen the news about the SEC's approval of the BTC-ETF on Platform X (previously Twitter) and decided to publish it as quickly as possible without fact-checking or obtaining editorial approval. Representatives from the Commission also noted that "the best source of information about the SEC is the SEC itself" and advised users to "be cautious about what they read online.".

To understand this issue more deeply, it's helpful to look back to its origins in 2021. That year, a series of companies submitted applications to create such funds. Three years ago, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan explained that cryptocurrency futures ETFs are not particularly suitable for long-term investors due to high ancillary costs. It is only when spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds become available that institutional investors will begin large-scale capital inflows.

For clarification: A spot BTC-ETF is a fund whose shares are traded on an exchange, and which tracks the market, or spot price, of bitcoin. The primary idea behind such ETFs is to give institutional investors access to bitcoin trading without physically owning the asset, through a regulated and financially familiar product.

All applications submitted to the SEC in 2021 were rejected, leading to a hiatus that was interrupted on June 15, 2023. On that day, the situation dramatically changed: the financial world was abuzz with the news that investment giant BlackRock had submitted its application for a spot bitcoin trust. In an interview with Bloomberg, Hougan heralded the dawn of a new era. He stated, "We now have BlackRock raising the flag and declaring that bitcoin matters: that it is an asset institutional investors want to invest in. I believe we have entered a new era in cryptocurrency, which I call the foundational era, and I expect a multi-year bull trend that is just beginning."

Under the banner raised by BlackRock, seven more leading financial institutions also submitted similar applications to the SEC. Among them were global asset managers like Invesco and Fidelity, who, experts believe, have the capacity to absorb trillions of dollars. The ninth on the list was the asset management company GlobalX. They, along with several other financial giants, had entered the ETF race back in 2021, but were then thwarted by the SEC. Now, in August 2023, GlobalX made another attempt.

Owing to the initiatives of these investment titans, bitcoin experienced a meteoric rise starting in the latter half of June. It shattered the $25,000 resistance barrier, soared beyond $30,000, and peaked at $31,388 on June 23. This resulted in a weekly gain exceeding 26%. Following bitcoin's lead, altcoins like Ethereum also saw significant upward movement, registering approximately a 19% increase during the same period. However, due to subsequent regulatory pressures from the SEC and actions by the U.S. Federal Reserve, along with other negative news, the BTC/USD trading pair began to decline. It reached a low point of $24,296 on August 17.

And now, two months later, we see another surge and subsequent drop. What's next? It's a pertinent question, as the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is expected to unleash a significant wave of adoption of this asset class by institutional investors. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, this could quickly propel the market capitalization of the crypto space by $1 trillion. In their opinion, the odds of this happening have significantly increased following the legal victories of Ripple and Grayscale against the SEC. Bloomberg analysts currently estimate these odds at 90%.

It's worth noting that the deadline for the SEC's decisions on the applications from BlackRock and other companies will arrive in March 2024. However, Mike Novogratz, the CEO of Galaxy Investment, believes that spot bitcoin ETFs could become a reality as early as this year. Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, declined to comment on the status of their application but added that the October 16 rally was driven not so much by rumours of its approval but rather by a desire among people to use quality assets, which he believes includes bitcoin, gold, and Treasury bonds.

Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, believes that the leading cryptocurrency is "in many ways even more valuable than gold," and could "easily" achieve a market capitalization of $15 trillion. According to his calculations, such a capitalization would propel the price of bitcoin to approximately $700,000.

Scaramucci asserts that the current financial system is "broken." "Strange things could happen when you see countries that are hostile to the U.S. trading in bitcoin or other assets to distance themselves from the dollar. This is because the United States has used its currency to assert its own geopolitical will," he said.

Opinions within the crypto industry regarding the near-term future of bitcoin (BTC) are divided. A study conducted by Finbold revealed that a substantial number of experts do not rule out the possibility of BTC/USD climbing to $100,000 or even $200,000. Finbold specialists also sought forecasts from the artificial intelligence PricePredictions. According to AI calculations, after the approval of a bitcoin ETF, the flagship crypto asset could swiftly reach the $100,000 range. PricePredictions noted that additional factors like mainstream bitcoin adoption, institutional investor actions, regulatory activity, and overall macroeconomic conditions will be significant.

Trader, analyst, and founder of venture firm Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that the October 16th fake news will not hinder the cryptocurrency's growth. According to his observations, the coin has already entered a phase of positive momentum. "The trend is already upward. The lows we're seeing now offer a buying opportunity. A bitcoin ETF will eventually enter the market; it's just not happening today," said the Eight CEO.

Authors of the analytical channel Root in X (formerly known as "Twitter") also think that the fake news did not exert significant pressure on the cryptocurrency. In their opinion, the coin's pump, despite the subsequent correction, has actually helped improve its position. However, there is also a sizable portion of the crypto community that supports a bearish outlook, suggesting the coin could drop to the $19,000-$23,000 range.

On Friday, October 20, BTC/USD made another attempt to breach the $30,000 mark, reaching a high of $30,207 before retreating. At the time of writing this overview, it is trading at $29,570. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.120 trillion, up from $1.046 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen over the week from 44 to 53 points, moving from the 'Fear' zone into the 'Neutral' zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 25, 2023, 02:45:43 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://imgtr.ee/images/2023/10/25/a5695fc591f2f2217669e5c571a41c6d.jpeg)

– Bitcoin experienced a rapid ascent on October 23 and 24, reaching a level of $35,188 for the first time since May 2022. This surge in the value of the leading cryptocurrency was driven by a combination of real-world events and high-impact speculative and false news related to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
For instance, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the SEC would not contest the court's decision in favour of Grayscale Investments. (To recap, at the end of August, the court granted Grayscale's lawsuit challenging the regulator's refusal to approve its application to launch a bitcoin ETF. Consequently, the company has effectively obtained permission from the U.S. court to convert its flagship fund, GBTC, into a spot bitcoin ETF). Additionally, there was news of the SEC discontinuing its legal proceedings against Ripple and its executives.
Discussions also revolved around the potential approval of an ETF for Ethereum and rumours of BlackRock's spot BTC-ETF gaining approval. BlackRock confirmed last week that this news was false. Nevertheless, the short squeeze prompted by this counterfeit news somewhat bolstered the cryptocurrency's growth, unsettling the market. The initial local trend gained momentum due to a series of liquidations of short positions opened with substantial leverage. According to Coinglass, a total of $161 million worth of such positions were liquidated.
Undoubtedly, the news was fabricated, but as the saying goes, there's no smoke without fire. A spot exchange-traded fund on bitcoin by BlackRock, named iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the list maintained by the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC). BlackRock informed the SEC about the planned commencement of a seed round in October for its spot BTC-ETF, and it may have already initiated the acquisition of cryptocurrency for this purpose. This also fueled speculations and rumors that approval for their ETF is inevitable.
In discussing the catalysts for bitcoin's surge, it's also essential to mention the drop in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) to monthly lows on October 23rd, a decline attributed to the reduction in 10-year treasury yields. Additionally, several experts believe that technical factors played a role - technical analysis has long signaled the possibility of a bull rally after breaking out of a sideways trend.

– Another reason cited by experts for bitcoin's rise is the inflation issues in the United States and geopolitical risks such as the escalation of tensions in the Middle East. As explained by Zach Pandl, the Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, many investors view bitcoin as "digital gold" and aim to use it to minimize financial risks. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $66 million last week, marking the fourth consecutive week of capital inflow.

– Optimism regarding the SEC registration of many spot bitcoin ETFs has increased, and a positive decision is expected "within months." This conclusion has been drawn by analysts at JPMorgan. Specialists have taken note of the lack of an SEC appeal against the court's decision in the Grayscale case. The regulator has been instructed not to obstruct the transformation of the bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund. "The timing of approval [...] remains uncertain, but it is likely to occur [...] by January 10, 2024 - the final deadline for the ARK Invest and 21 Co. applications. This is the earliest of various final deadlines to which the SEC must respond," noted JPMorgan. Experts also emphasize that the Commission may choose to approve all proposals at once to ensure fair competition.

– In the distant future, the security of the first cryptocurrency is threatened not by quantum computing but by changes in the reward model for miners. This statement was made by Dr. Lawrence H. White, a professor of economics at George Mason University. According to him, after the last bitcoin is mined, which is expected to occur around 2140, the primary source of income for miners will be transaction fees. "People are concerned that it may not be possible to attract a sufficient number of miners to ensure the system's security," White warned. At the same time, the professor emphasized that at the current moment, the first cryptocurrency is protected from hacking because an attack on its network using quantum computers is not in the miners' interests.
White considers it unlikely that bitcoin will be used as a means of payment. Although, according to him, other cryptocurrencies that provide "more stable purchasing power" could assume that role.

– Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital, and a critic of the first cryptocurrency, has stated, "It's not a resource; it's nothing." He also likened holders of the asset to a cult. "No one needs bitcoin. People only buy it after others persuade them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to convince others to join in. It's like a cult," Schiff wrote.

– Opinions among members of the crypto community about BTC's future have diverged. Many market participants are confident that a positive news backdrop will support the further rise of the cryptocurrency. For example, Will Clemente, the co-founder of Reflexivity Research, believes that the behavior of the coin should unsettle the bears who planned to buy BTC at a lower price. The forecast of a trader and analyst known as Titan of Crypto implies that the coin will move to $40,000 by November 2023. Optimists are also joined by Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of the venture company Eight, and Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Fund.
However, there are those who believe that BTC won't continue to rise. For instance, analysts Trader_J and Doctor Profit are confident that after hitting a local maximum, the coin will enter into a prolonged correction. Their forecast does not rule out a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $24,000-$26,000 by the end of the year. A negative BTC forecast was also supported by a trader known as Ninja. In his view, the technical analysis, which includes an analysis of gaps on CME (gaps between the opening and closing prices of Bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), indicates a likelihood of BTC dropping to $20,000.

– The company Matrixport has published an analytical report discussing the growing FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in the cryptocurrency market. Analysts cite their proprietary trading indicators, which allow them to successfully forecast digital asset prices. In their view, by the end of the year, the price of Bitcoin could reach $40,000, and in the event of the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, it could rise to $56,000.
(FOMO - Fear of Missing Out is a term that describes situations where the fear of missing opportunities or valuable resources leads to specific actions. Examples include investments driven by the fear of being left behind while others are making profits.).

– Investor and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad, Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, has stated that once physical gold surpasses the $2,000 threshold (the current price is $1,975), bitcoin will move towards $100,000, with the next target being $135,000. Kiyosaki expressed scepticism regarding the value of the U.S. dollar, referring to it as counterfeit.

– Hal Finney was the first recipient of BTC. Consequently, many members of the crypto community speculate that the late Hal Finney might indeed be the enigmatic Satoshi Nakamoto. However, Jameson Lopp, a former Chief Engineer at BitGo and co-founder of Casa, conducted an investigation and became convinced that Finney is not the creator of the first cryptocurrency. Lopp discovered that Satoshi Nakamoto sent an email to Bitcoin developer Mike Hearn just 2 minutes before Finney completed a 10-mile race in Santa Barbara, California. Given that Finney was running for 1 hour and 18 minutes, it seems implausible that he could have been at a computer to send that email to Mike Hearn.

– As it turns out, traders in Thailand are using Tarot cards and astrology to predict price movements. For example, a popular astrologer who goes by the name Pimfah leads a Facebook group with over 160,000 members. There are also predictors on YouTube, like Ajarn Ton, who has over 26,000 subscribers. His channel features hundreds of videos, and in one of the recent ones, he predicts a 50,000% rise in the altcoin Terra Luna Classic. Considering that the project has collapsed and been abandoned for a long time, it's unlikely that this prediction will come true. However, there have been successful predictions as well. For instance, in August 2022, a well-known local predictor named Mor Plai forecasted the recovery of the crypto market. Several months later, this prediction made headlines in Thai newspapers.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 29, 2023, 12:08:14 PM
[SIZE="5"]Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for October 30 - November 03, 2023[/SIZE]


EUR/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.0200?

(https://imgtr.ee/images/2023/10/28/833ad861257e44f4dd67b2ab4db3011e.jpeg)

Having started the past week on a positive note, EUR/USD approached a significant support/resistance level at the 1.0700 zone on Tuesday, October 24, before reversing and sharply declining. According to several analysts, the correction of the DXY Dollar Index that began on October 3rd, which correspondingly drove EUR/USD northward, has come to an end.

The trigger for the trend reversal was disappointing data on business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone, which fell short of forecasts and dropped below the key 50.0-point mark, indicating a deteriorating economic climate. These figures, remaining at a five-year low, starkly contrasted with similar indicators from the United States, which were released on the same day and exceeded both forecasts and the 50.0-point level. (As noted by proponents of technical analysis, the decline was also facilitated by the fact that as EUR/USD approached 1.0700, it hit its 50-day MA.)

In addition to PMI, preliminary U.S. GDP data for Q3, released on Thursday, October 26, served as further evidence that the American economy is coping well with a year and a half of aggressive monetary tightening. The annualized figures were significantly higher than both previous values and forecasts. Economic growth reached 4.9% compared to 2.1% and 4.2%, respectively. (It's worth noting that despite this growth, experts from the Wall Street Journal predict a GDP slowdown to 0.9%, which has led to a drop in the yield of U.S. Treasury bonds and slightly stalled the rise of the DXY.).

Also on Thursday, October 26, a European Central Bank (ECB) meeting took place, where the Governing Council members were expected to decide on the Eurozone interest rate. According to the consensus forecast, the rate was expected to remain at the current level of 4.50%, which indeed occurred. Market participants were more interested in the statements and comments made by the European Central Bank's leadership. From ECB President Christine Lagarde's remarks, it was inferred that the ECB is conducting "effective monetary policy, particularly in the banking sector." Nevertheless, the situation in Europe is not ideal. "Interest rates have likely reached their peak, but the Governing Council does not rule out an increase," she stated. Now more than ever, a data-dependent policy should be adopted. Inaction is sometimes also an action.

Apart from raising rates and maintaining the status quo, there is a third option: lowering rates. Madam Lagarde dismissed this route, stating that discussing a rate cut at this time is premature. However, market sentiment suggests that the ECB will formally announce the end of the current rate-hiking cycle at one of its upcoming meetings. Furthermore, derivatives indicate that the easing of the European regulator's monetary policy could start as early as April, with the likelihood of this happening by June being close to 100%. All of this could lead to a long-term depreciation of the European currency.

Certainly, the U.S. dollar benefits from a higher current interest rate (5.50% vs. 4.50%), as well as different economic dynamics and resilience to stress between the U.S. and Eurozone economies. Furthermore, the dollar is attractive as a safe-haven asset. These factors, along with expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will turn dovish before the Federal Reserve does, lead experts to predict a continuing downtrend for EUR/USD. However, considering the likelihood of a significant slowdown in U.S. GDP growth, some analysts believe the pair may stabilize within a sideways channel in the short term. For instance, economists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank (UOB) anticipate that the pair will likely trade in the range of 1.0510-1.0690 over the next 1-3 weeks.

Looking at forecasts for the end of the year, strategists from the Japanese financial holding company Nomura identify several other catalysts driving down EUR/USD: 1) deteriorating global risk sentiment due to rising bond yields; 2) widening yield spreads between German and Italian bonds; 3) reduced political uncertainty in the U.S., as the likelihood of a government shutdown diminishes; and 4) geopolitical tensions in the Middle East serving as a potential trigger for rising crude oil prices. Nomura believes that recent positive news about China's economic growth is unlikely to sufficiently offset these factors, keeping market participants bearish on the euro. Based on these elements, and even assuming that the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged next week, Nomura forecasts that the EUR/USD rate will fall to 1.0200 by year's end.

Strategists from Wells Fargo, part of the "big four" U.S. banks, expect the pair to reach the 1.0200 level slightly later, at the beginning of 2024. A bearish sentiment is also maintained by economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands.

Following the release of data on U.S. personal consumption expenditure, which aligned perfectly with forecasts, EUR/USD closed the past week at a level of 1.0564. Expert opinions on its near-term outlook are mixed: 45% advocate for a strengthening dollar, 30% favour the euro, and 25% maintain a neutral position. In terms of technical analysis, the D1 chart oscillators provide no clear direction: 30% point downward, 20% upward, and 50% remain neutral. Trend indicators offer more clarity: 90% look downward, while only 10% point upward. Immediate support levels for the pair are around 1.0500-1.0530, followed by 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Resistance for the bulls lies in the ranges of 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0740-1.0770, 1.0800, 1.0865, and 1.0945-1.0975.

The upcoming week promises to be packed with significant events. On Monday, October 30, we'll receive GDP and inflation (CPI) data from Germany. On Tuesday, October 31, retail sales figures from this engine of the European economy will be released, along with preliminary data on Eurozone-wide GDP and CPI. On Wednesday, November 1, employment levels in the U.S. private sector and Manufacturing PMI data will be published. The day will also feature the most critical event: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting, where an interest rate decision will be made. The consensus forecast suggests that rates will remain unchanged. Therefore, market participants will be particularly interested in statements and comments from the leaders of the U.S. Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, November 2, we'll find out the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. The torrent of labour market data will continue on Friday, November 3. As is traditional on the first Friday of the month, we can expect another round of key macro statistics, including the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs created in the United States.

GBP/USD: Awaiting the Pair at 1.1600?

Last week's published data indicated that although the UK's unemployment rate fell from 4.3% to 4.2%, the number of jobless claims amounted to 20.4K. This figure is significantly higher than both the previous value of 9.0K and the forecast of 2.3K. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) October data on major retailers' retail sales revealed that the Retail Sales Index dropped from -14 to -36 points, marking its lowest level since March 2021. Furthermore, analysts fear that the situation could deteriorate in November as households face pressure from high prices, leading them to significantly cut back on spending.

According to ING's forecast, in the short-term, risks for the pound remain skewed towards a decline to the key support level of 1.2000. Transitioning to medium-term expectations, Wells Fargo economists believe that not just the European but also the British currency will trend downward. "Europe's poor performance compared to the U.S. should exert pressure on both currencies," they write. "The ECB and the Bank of England have signalled that interest rates have likely reached their peak, which weakens the currencies' support from interest rates. Against this backdrop, we expect the pound to weaken [...] in early 2024, targeting a minimum for GBP/USD around 1.1600."

The Bank of England (BoE) is scheduled to hold a meeting on Thursday, November 2, following the Federal Reserve meeting earlier in the week. According to forecasts, the British regulator is expected to leave its monetary policy parameters unchanged, maintaining the interest rate at 5.25%, similar to the actions taken by the ECB and the Fed. However, given the high inflation rates in the United Kingdom, which exceed those of its main economic competitors, the BoE's rhetoric could be more hawkish than that of Madame Lagarde. In such a case, the pound may find some support against the European currency, but this is unlikely to offer much help against the dollar.

GBP/USD closed the past week at a level of 1.2120. When polled about the pair's near-term future, 50% of analysts voted for its rise. Only 20% believe the pair will continue its movement towards the target of 1.2000, while the remaining 30% maintain a neutral stance. Trend indicators on the D1 chart are unanimously bearish, with 100% pointing to a decline and coloured in red. Oscillators are slightly less conclusive: 80% indicate a decline (of which 15% are in the oversold zone), 10% suggest a rise, and the remaining 10% are in a neutral grey colour. In terms of support levels and zones, should the pair move downward, it would encounter support at 1.2000-1.2040, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, followed by 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, and 1.1450-1.1475. If the pair rises, it will meet resistance at 1.2145-1.2175, 1.2190-1.2215, 1.2280, 1.2335, 1.2450, 1.2550-1.2575, and 1.2690-1.2710.

Aside from the aforementioned Bank of England meeting on November 2, no other significant events concerning the British economy are anticipated for the upcoming week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on October 29, 2023, 12:11:23 PM
USD/JPY: Awaiting the Pair at 152.80?

The Japanese yen remains the weakest among the currencies of developed nations. USD/JPY  has been rising throughout the year, and on Thursday, October 26, it reached a new annual high of 150.77. The primary reason for this trend, as we have frequently emphasized in our reviews, is the disparity in monetary policies between the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and other leading central banks. The BoJ shows no signs of relinquishing its ultra-accommodative monetary policy, maintaining its interest rate at a negative -0.1%. With the Federal Reserve's rate standing at +5.50%, a simple carry-trade operation exchanging yen for dollars provides substantial returns due to this rate difference.

The yen is also not helped by the easing control over the yield curve of Japanese government bonds. Currently, the yield on 10-year bonds can deviate from zero by no more than 0.5%. At its July meeting, the BoJ decided that this range would be more of a guideline than a hard boundary. However, subsequent experience has shown that any notable deviation from this range triggers the BoJ to buy bonds, which again leads to yen weakening.

Even the currency interventions conducted on October 3, when USD/JPY exceeded the 150.00 mark, failed to support the yen. The pair was temporarily brought down to 147.26, but it quickly rebounded and is now once again approaching the 150.00 level.

Leaders of Japan's Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank continually attempt to bolster their currency with reassuring yet rather vague statements, asserting that Japan's overall financial system remains stable and that they are closely monitoring exchange rates. However, as evident, their words have had limited impact. On the past Friday, October 27, Hirokazu Matsuno, the Chief Cabinet Secretary, added to the ambiguity. According to him, he expects the Bank of Japan to conduct appropriate monetary policy in line with objectives for achieving stable and sustainable price levels. While this sounds very good, understanding its implications is also very challenging. What exactly constitutes "appropriate" policy? And where does this elusive "target price level" stand?

According to experts at Germany's Commerzbank, "not everything in Japan's monetary and foreign exchange policy is always logical." "The market is likely to continue testing higher levels in USD/JPY," forecast the bank's economists. "Then there are two possible scenarios: either the Ministry of Finance conducts another intervention, or the yen's depreciation accelerates as the market starts to price out the risk of intervention."

"In the medium to long term," Commerzbank analysts continue, "an intervention won't be able to prevent a depreciation of the currency, especially if the Bank of Japan keeps exerting pressure on the yen by maintaining its ultra-expansionary monetary policy. Therefore, the only logical response would be, at the very least, a gradual normalization of monetary policy, possibly through further easing of the yield curve control (YCC). However, there is no certainty that easing the YCC would be sufficient, nor is there any certainty that the Bank of Japan will change anything in its meeting on Tuesday [October 31]."

As a result, analysts at the French bank Societe Generale believe that current dynamics favour a continuation of the upward movement. The next potential hurdles, in their opinion, lie at the 151.25 level and in the zone of last year's highs of 152.00-152.80. A key support zone is at 149.30-148.85, but overcoming this area would be necessary to confirm a short-term decline.

USD/JPY closed the past trading week at a level of 149.63. When discussing its near-term prospects, analysts are evenly split: 50% predict the pair will rise, and 50% anticipate a decline. Trend indicators on the D1 chart show 65% in green, indicating bullishness, and 35% in red, signalling bearishness. Among oscillators, there is unanimous lack of sentiment for a downward move. 50% point north, and the remaining 50% indicate a sideways trend. The nearest support levels are situated in the zones of 148.30-148.70, followed by 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The closest resistance lies at 150.00-150.15, then 150.40-150.80, followed by 151.90 (October 2022 high) and 152.80-153.15.

No significant economic data pertaining to the state of the Japanese economy is scheduled for release in the upcoming week. Naturally, attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's meeting on Tuesday, October 31, although no major surprises are expected. Traders should also be aware that Friday, November 3, is a public holiday in Japan as the country observes Culture Day.

A bit of reassuring information for proponents of the Japanese currency comes from Wells Fargo. They anticipate that "if the Federal Reserve does indeed cut rates, and even if the Bank of Japan continues to gradually tighten monetary policy, the yield differential should shift in favour of the yen in the long term." Wells Fargo strategists forecast that "by the end of next year, USD/JPY could be heading toward 146.00."

This American bank's outlook may instil optimism in traders who opened short positions at 150.00. However, what course of action should be taken by those who pressed 'Sell' in January 2023 when the pair was trading at 127.00?

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Start of a Bull Rally or Another Bull Trap?

Today's cryptocurrency market review is decidedly optimistic, and for good reason. On October 23-24, bitcoin surged to $35,188 for the first time since May 2022. The rise in the leading cryptocurrency occurred amid a mix of tangible events, speculative buzz, and fake news related to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

For instance, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the SEC will not appeal a court ruling in favour of Grayscale Investments. Additionally, news emerged that the SEC is discontinuing its lawsuit against Ripple and its executives. Speculation also abounded regarding potential SEC approval of an Ethereum ETF and rumours of a spot BTC-ETF approval for BlackRock. Last week, BlackRock confirmed that the latter news was false. However, the short squeeze triggered by this fake news facilitated the coin's rise, shaking up the market. The initial local trend was amplified by a cascade of liquidations of short positions opened with significant leverage. According to Coinglass, a total of $161 million in such positions was liquidated.

While the news was fake, the saying goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire." BlackRock's spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund, iShares Bitcoin Trust, appeared on the Depository Trust and Clearing Corporation (DTCC) list. BlackRock itself informed the SEC about its plans to initiate a test seed round in October for its spot BTC-ETF, potentially already beginning its cryptocurrency purchasing. This too fuelled speculation and rumours that the approval of its ETF is inevitable.

Moreover, according to some experts, technical factors contributed to the rise in quotes. Technical analysis had long pointed to a possible bull rally following an exit from the sideways trend.

Some analysts believe that another trigger for bitcoin's surge was the decline of the Dollar Index (DXY) to monthly lows on October 23. However, this point is debatable. We have previously noted that bitcoin has recently lost both its inverse and direct correlations, becoming "decoupled" from both the U.S. currency and stock market indices. The chart shows that on October 24, the dollar reversed its trend and began to rise. Risk assets like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq Composite indices responded to this with sharp declines. But not BTC/USD, which shifted to a sideways movement around the Pivot Point of $34,000.

While the S&P 500 has been in a bearish trend for 13 weeks, BTC has been rising since August 17 despite challenges. During this period, the leading cryptocurrency has gained approximately 40%. Looking at a more extended timeframe, over the last three years, bitcoin has grown by 147% (as of October 20, 2023), while the S&P 500 has increased by only 26%.

Last week, the average BTC holder returned to profitability. According to calculations by analytics agency Glassnode, the average acquisition cost for investors was $29,800. For short-term holders (coins with less than 6 months of inactivity), this figure stands at $28,000. As of the writing of this review, their profit is approximately 20%.

The situation is somewhat different for long-term hodlers. They rarely react to even significant market upheavals, aiming for substantial profits over a multi-year horizon. In 2023, over 30% of the coins they held were in a drawdown, but this did not deter them from continuing to accumulate. Currently, holdings for this investor category amount to a record 14.9 million BTC, equivalent to 75% of the total circulating supply. The most notable and largest among such "whales" is MicroStrategy Incorporated. The company purchased its first batch of bitcoin in September 2020 at a price of $11,600 per coin. Subsequent acquisitions occurred during both market upswings and downturns, and it now owns 158,245 BTC, having spent $4.7 billion on the asset. Therefore, MicroStrategy's unrealized profit stands at approximately $0.65 billion, or roughly 13.6%.

The anticipation of the imminent launch of spot BTC ETFs in the U.S. is fuelling institutional interest in cryptocurrency. However, due to regulatory hurdles posed by the SEC, this interest is mostly deferred, according to analysts at Ernst & Newbie trader. By some estimates, this pent-up demand amounts to around $15 trillion, which could potentially drive BTC/USD to $200,000 in the long term. What can be said for certain is that open interest in futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) has surpassed a record 100,000 BTC, and daily trading volume has reached $1.8 billion.

Another driver of increased activity, according to experts, is the inflationary concerns in the U.S. and geopolitical risks such as the escalating situation in the Middle East. Zach Pandl, Managing Director of Grayscale Investments, explained that many investors view bitcoin as "digital gold" and seek to minimize financial risks through it. According to CoinShares, investments in crypto funds increased by $66 million last week; this marks the fourth consecutive week of inflows.

According to experts at JPMorgan, a positive decision from the SEC on the registration of the first spot bitcoin ETFs can be expected "within months." The specialists noted the absence of an SEC appeal against the court decision in the Grayscale case. The regulator has been instructed not to obstruct the transformation of the bitcoin trust into an exchange-traded fund. "The timelines for approval remain uncertain, but it is likely to happen [...] by January 10, 2024, the final deadline for the ARK Invest and 21 Co. application. This is the earliest of various final deadlines by which the SEC must respond," noted the experts at JPMorgan. They also emphasized that the Commission, in the interest of maintaining fair competition, may approve all pending applications simultaneously.

The future price behaviour of bitcoin is a topic of divided opinion within the crypto community. Matrixport has published an analytical report discussing the rising FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect. Their analysts rely on proprietary indicators that enable them to make favourable predictions for digital assets. They believe that by year-end, bitcoin could reach $40,000 and may climb to $56,000 if a bitcoin ETF is approved.

Many market participants are confident that a positive news backdrop will continue to support further cryptocurrency growth. For instance, Will Clemente, co-founder of Reflexivity Research, believes that the coin's behaviour should unsettle bears planning to buy cheaper BTC. A trader and analyst known as Titan of Crypto predicts the coin to move towards $40,000 by November 2023. Optimism is also shared by Michael Van De Poppe, founder of venture company Eight, and Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund.

However, there are those who believe that BTC will not make further gains. Analysts Trader_J and Doctor Profit, for example, are certain that after reaching a new local maximum, the coin will enter an extended correction. Their forecast does not rule out a decline of BTC/USD to $24,000-$26,000 by year-end. A trader known as Ninja supports this negative bitcoin outlook. According to him, the technical picture, which includes an analysis of gaps on CME (the space between the opening and closing prices of bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), suggests the likelihood of BTC falling to $20,000.

As of the time of writing this review, on Friday, October 27, BTC/USD is trading at $33,800. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.25 trillion, up from $1.12 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen over the week from 53 points to 72, moving from the Neutral zone into the Greed zone. It recorded its 2023 peak before slightly retreating and currently stands at 70 points. It's worth noting that just a month ago, the Index was in the Fear zone. Similar explosive rises in market sentiment were previously recorded in mid-2020 and mid-2021, correlating with price increases.

In conclusion of this generally optimistic overview, let's introduce a bit of pessimism from Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital. This long-time critic of the leading cryptocurrency stated that bitcoin is "not an asset, it's nothing." He also likened bitcoin holders to a cult, saying, "No one needs bitcoin. People buy it only after someone else convinces them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to draw others into it. It's like a cult," wrote Schiff.

However, it's worth noting that this is a very large and rapidly growing "cult." If in 2016 the number of BTC holders was just 1.2 million, by May 2023, according to various sources, global ownership is estimated at 420 million, or 5.1% of the world's population.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 01, 2023, 02:11:59 PM
October Results: Top 3 NordFX Traders' Profit Nears 400,000 USD

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NordFX brokerage company has summarized the trading performance of its clients for October 2023. Additionally, the social trading services and the profit earned by the company's IB partners were evaluated.

The past month proved highly fruitful for the company's clients. The undisputed leader was a trader from Western Asia, account #1691XXX, with a profit amounting to 185,095 USD. This remarkable result was achieved from trades involving gold (XAU/USD), the euro (EUR/USD), and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- Taking the second spot on the podium with an impressive profit of 129,150 USD was a representative from South Asia, account No.1720XXX. Their profit was derived from trading currency pairs GBP/USD, EUR/USD, and USD/JPY.

- Gold (XAU/USD) enabled another trader from Western Asia, account No.1696XXX, to earn 83,980 USD, securing a spot among the top three. 

In the PAMM service, the "Trade and earn" account continues to attract the attention of passive investors. It was opened 601 days ago but remained dormant until it was revived in November 2022. Since then, the account's yield has exceeded 205% with a relatively small drawdown of less than 17%. It's worth noting that past performance does not guarantee similar returns in the future. As always, we urge investors to exercise utmost caution when investing their funds.

On the PAMM service showcase, two long-standing accounts remain, which we've frequently mentioned in previous reports. These are "KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA" and "TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3". Recall that on November 14, 2022, they faced significant losses, with drawdowns nearing 43%. However, the PAMM managers chose to persevere, and by October 31, 2023, the first account's profit surpassed 116%, and the second's reached 78%

The top 3 IB partners of NordFX for October are as follows:

- The highest commission of 13,469 USD was credited to a partner from South Asia, account No.1576XXX.
- Second place went to the holder of account No.1645XXX from Western Asia, who received 11,869 USD. Remarkably, this partner has been among the top three for six consecutive months. Over this period, thye accumulated earnings of approximately 70,000 USD.
- Lastly, rounding off the top 3 is another partner from South Asia with account No.1700XXX, who received a reward of 7,124 USD.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 01, 2023, 02:31:41 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– October 31 is bitcoin's birthday. On this very day in 2008, an individual or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published a document titled "bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System". However, it's worth noting that bitcoin only made its debut as a cryptocurrency in the market on January 3, 2009. On this day, a block was mined containing the date and a brief excerpt from The Times article: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks".
On January 12, 2009, Nakamoto executed the first transaction on the network, sending cryptocurrency to developer Hal Finney. That same year, bitcoin was listed on the New Liberty Standard exchange. On this platform, one could purchase 1309 BTC for just $1 (worth nearly $55 million today).

– According to experts at CoinGecko, the "Uptober effect" is a reality, not merely an internet meme. (The term is derived from the combination of the words "up" and "October"). In eight out of the past ten years, the cryptocurrency market has shown growth in October compared to the preceding month. On average, the "Uptober effect" results in a 14% increase in the total market capitalization of digital assets – ranging from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021, as calculated by CoinGecko. The exceptions were in 2014 and 2018 when the market declined by 12.7% and 8.3% respectively over the month.
This year, starting from $27,000 on October 1st, bitcoin tested the $35,000 mark by October 24th, reflecting an approximately 30% growth. Even more significant rallies were shown by altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK).

– "Bitcoin is gold for the Newbie trader," opined billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller, a former associate of George Soros at the Quantum Fund. "I'm 70 years old, and I have gold. I was taken aback when bitcoin started to emerge. But it's evident that the Newbie traderer generation views it as a savings mechanism because it's much more convenient to handle," he observed. He believes that the foremost cryptocurrency has attained a brand stature akin to the precious metal, which has maintained its allure for 5,000 years. "I have an affinity for both. I don't possess bitcoin, but perhaps I should," Druckenmiller remarked.

– Peter Schiff, another "gold bug" and the head of Euro Pacific Capital, posits that the final nod from the SEC for spot bitcoin ETFs will spell the end for the bullish rally of the principal cryptocurrency. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $35,000, as speculators are banking on a favourable regulatory decision. This optimism might very well represent the zenith of the rally unless bitcoin sells off sooner. In Schiff's view, crypto traders might commence offloading coins, locking in profits even prior to any definitive decision from the SEC.

– A well-known bitcoin maximalist, TV host, and founder of Heisenberg Capital, Max Keiser, went on a tirade, dubbing Ethereum a "shitcoin" and its creator, Vitalik Buterin, a "terrorist". "Shitcoins like ETH, XRP, BNB, ADA, and thousands of others are crafted by financial terrorists and are indubitably employed to fund terrorism. Do your job and incarcerate everyone associated with these coins!" Keiser urged law enforcement. This former trader perceives bitcoin as distinct from other digital assets since it embodies a digital commodity designed to combat central banks and criminals vested with power. According to Keiser, in contrast, shitcoins were merely concocted to destabilize the financial system. Keiser's statement predictably drew a torrent of criticism. The blunter members of the crypto community labelled him a scammer, wishing him behind bars. The more courteous individuals advised the TV host to delve into the documentation of other cryptocurrencies to fathom their nuances.

– According to Guy Gotslak, co-founder and president of My Digital Money, Ethereum will reach $10,000 sooner than many expect. He believes that ETH has all the fundamentals required for significant growth, and it will be a walk to the top, not a giant leap.
During the recent cryptocurrency market rally, Ethereum increased by 21%, and the majority of the crypto industry participants believe that bitcoin's growth influenced ETH's rise. However, Gotslak thinks otherwise, being confident that the price movement of the main altcoin is independent of what happens with bitcoin.
The trading expert is optimistic about ETH's prospects, as he believes the market is looking for a safe haven. His confidence is also based on the numerous use cases of the Ethereum blockchain, which has been chosen by several Fortune 500 companies. Gotslak asserts that, with further technological advancements, this blockchain will become the most used, and ETH will become the most popular cryptocurrency.

– Michael Van De Poppe, founder of the venture company Eight and CEO of MN Trading, believes that bitcoin has officially entered a bullish market phase. The expert thinks the asset is ready for a rally to $50,000, after which a pullback will occur, followed by a new all-time high (ATH). Van De Poppe noted that BTC would face resistance at the $38,000 level but would likely continue to rise, reaching $45,000-50,000 by January 2024. However, he also mentions that a drop below $33,000 is still possible and sees it as an excellent opportunity for long positions.
Van De Poppe predicts that after the April halving, there will be a consolidation and sideways movement for an extended period before bitcoin begins to set new highs.
Look Into Bitcoin creators also believe that after BTC surpassed the $34,000 mark, it started the early phase of the bullish market. The next targets are $41,900 and $65,050.
A trader by the nickname Rekt Capital is less optimistic, expecting a significant drop by March 2024. After the halving, the expert anticipates a consolidation in the $24,000-30,000 range and then a parabolic growth to six-digit figures.

– In an interview with CNBC, renowned cryptocurrency enthusiast Anthony Pompliano expressed optimism about bitcoin's bullish trend. He emphasized that BTC's price rise is due to solid demand and supply. "Bitcoin is the most disciplined central bank in the world. [...] Bitcoin's supply is limited to 21 million coins, and this starkly contrasts with central banks that can issue an unlimited amount of money and bonds. Due to bitcoin's scarcity and its decentralized nature, it has become an attractive asset, especially during times of economic uncertainty," stated Pompliano.

– In the US, bitcoin mining is beginning to be used for heating saunas. Such a sauna has started operating in Brooklyn, New York. The heat generated by mining equipment is used as the source of water heating. As saunas become increasingly popular among Americans, this development benefits miners, as it adds another point to the discussion on the public benefit or significance of such entrepreneurial activity.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 05, 2023, 08:28:56 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 06 - 10, 2023


EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar

Throughout the week, the Dollar Index DXY, along with EUR/USD, appeared to be riding the waves, moving up and down. At the beginning of the week, preliminary data for Europe was released. In terms of annual growth, the GDP of the Eurozone in the third quarter was only 0.1%, which fell short of both the forecast of 0.2% and the previous figure of 0.5%. In addition, inflation took a downward turn – in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 2.9% (year-on-year), missing the forecast of 3.1% and the previous month's 4.3%.

The European Central Bank meeting took place on October 26, during which the members of the Governing Council unsurprisingly left the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. Now, market participants were eagerly anticipating the decision of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday, November 1. On the eve of the FOMC meeting, the dollar, regarded as a safe-haven asset, received support due to increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, strong macroeconomic data from the United States favoured the American currency. The country's GDP in the third quarter surged by 4.9%, significantly surpassing the previous figure of 2.1%. Another surprise came from the ADP private sector employment data: the change in the number of employed individuals in the private sector reached 113K, compared to 89K the previous month.

Market participants had a sense that in such a situation, the Federal Reserve (FOMC) might well continue tightening monetary policy, especially since inflation is still far from the target level of 2.0%. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds once again approached the 5.0% level, and the Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 107.00.

However, November 1 brought complete disappointment to the dollar bulls. For the second consecutive month, the FOMC left the key interest rate unchanged at 5.50%. What's worse is that if after the September meeting, the market believed that the cost of borrowing would rise to 5.75% by the end of this year, the probability of such an increase has now plummeted to 14%. The Dollar also received no support from the rhetoric of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell during the press conference following the current meeting.

The situation could have been rectified by the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), traditionally published on the first Friday of the month, which was on November 3. However, the number of non-farm payroll (NFP) employees in the country only increased by 150K in October. This figure turned out to be lower than both the market's expectations of 180K and the revised September growth, which was adjusted from 336K to 297K. The unemployment rate rose during the same period from 3.8% to 3.9%. The annual inflation, measured by the change in the average hourly wage, decreased from 4.3% to 4.1%. As a result of this disappointing data for Dollar bulls, the Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted to 105.09, while EUR/USD reached a six-week high at 1.0718.

Towards the end of the workweek, the publication of the ISM Services PMI index revealed that business activity in the U.S. services sector was growing at a slower pace in October. The PMI declined to 51.8 from 53.6 in September. This value was below the market's expectation of 53.0. More detailed data showed that the index of service prices (the inflation component) decreased slightly from 58.9 to 58.6, and the employment index dropped from 53.4 to 50.2. As a result, the Dollar continued its descent, and the final note of the week for the currency pair was heard at the level of 1.0730.

According to strategists at the Canadian Scotiabank, in the short term, EUR/USD could rise to 1.0750. In general, expert opinions regarding the near future of the currency pair are divided as follows: 45% voted for a stronger Dollar, while 60% sided with the Euro. As for technical analysis, 35% of the D1 oscillators are pointing south, while 65% are pointing north, although a third of them signal overbought conditions for the pair. Among trend indicators, priorities are clearer: 85% are looking north, with only 15% looking south. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0675-1.0700, followed by 1.0600-1.0620, 1.0500-1.0530, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0745-1.0770, then 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0945-1.0975, and 1.1090-1.1110.

Unlike the past five days, the economic calendar for the upcoming week anticipates significantly fewer important events. On Wednesday, November 8, data on inflation (CPI) in Germany and retail sales in the Eurozone will be released. Additionally, on this day, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to give a speech. He can also be heard again on Thursday, November 9. As is customary, Thursday will also bring data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States.

GBP/USD: A Good Week for the Pound

Looking at the results of central bank meetings in many countries, there is a sense that the global trend of tightening monetary policy has come to an end. Both the ECB and the Fed left interest rates unchanged. The Bank of England (BoE) also did the same on November 2 at its meeting, leaving the key rate unchanged for the second consecutive time at 5.25%. According to the regulator, such a decision should support the recovery of the economy and employment levels in the United Kingdom. The short-term inflation forecast was revised upwards. However, the central bank leaders noted that inflation in the third quarter had decreased to 6.7%, which was better than expected in August, and its target level of 2.0% is likely to be reached by the end of 2025.

Despite the BoE keeping the rate unchanged, the market perceived this decision as hawkish because three out of nine members of the bank's leadership voted for an increase. Furthermore, the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, emphasized during a press conference that considering a rate cut would be premature. He stated, "Monetary policy is likely to remain restrictive for an extended period." Investors are aware that central banks use such forward guidance as a tool to influence the market, so it is unlikely that the regulator will switch to a soft monetary policy anytime soon. Of course, there are no guarantees that the BoE will stick to its promises if inflation does not move towards the target level. However, at the moment, the market believes Andrew Bailey, which has supported the British currency.

The pound received its strongest bullish impulse after the release of US labor market data on November 3. At that moment, GBP/USD surged upwards, continued its ascent, and closed the week at 1.2380. According to Scotiabank economists, the short-term trading model for the British currency looks promising. They note an increase in demand for the pound amid its weakening since mid-July and do not rule out a rise of GBP/USD to the 1.2450 level. As for the median forecast for the near future, 35% of analysts voted for the pair's rise, 50% believe that the pair will resume its movement towards the 1.2000 target, and the remaining 15% remain neutral. On the D1 timeframe, 75% of trend indicators point to a pair's rise and are coloured green, while the remaining 25% are red. Oscillators show the same readings: 75% point upwards (a quarter of them are in the overbought zone), and 25% voted for a decline. In case the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2145, 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the event of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance at levels 1.2390-1.2425, 1.2450-1.2520, 1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

The speech by the Governor of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, scheduled for November 8, and the release of preliminary GDP data for the country for Q3 on November 10 can be highlighted in the events of the upcoming week related to the United Kingdom's economy.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 05, 2023, 08:29:22 AM
USD/JPY: A Middling Week for the Yen

If the ECB, the Federal Reserve, and the Bank of England have left interest rates unchanged, what could be expected from their Japanese counterparts? Of course, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) made the decision to maintain the parameters of its monetary policy during its meeting on Tuesday, October 31. They have been in this position for a very long time. The regulator not only retained the interest rate at a negative level of -0.1% but also kept the yield on 10-year government bonds (JGB) unchanged. Some market participants had hoped that after the inflation growth data, BoJ would raise their yield ceiling from 1% to at least 1.25%. (It's worth noting that the yield on similar US securities is close to 5.0%). However, instead, the Bank of Japan continued to ignore obvious signs of increasing inflationary pressure. Although in the Tokyo region, the CPI rose from 2.8% to 3.3% (YoY) in October. Additionally, despite assurances from high-ranking officials about the priority of industrial production growth, this indicator declined from -4.4% to -4.6% in annual terms.

All of this pushed USD/JPY to a high of 151.71. It would have likely remained there if not for the results of the Federal Reserve's meeting and US labor market data. As a result, it started the week at 149.63 and finished at 149.34. Considering the pair's high volatility, the outcome can be considered neutral.

Economists from the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, believe that the pair will end the year not far from 150.00. Regarding its near-term prospects, 65% of analysts expect the yen to strengthen, 35% take a neutral position, and there were no votes for it to rise above 151.00 at the time of writing this review. Technical analysis indicators appear quite mixed this time. On the D1 timeframe, 50% of trend indicators are in green, and the same percentage is in red. Among oscillators, one-third voted for the pair's rise, one-third for its fall, and one-third remained neutral-gray. The nearest support level is located in the range of 148.45-148.80, then 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The closest resistance is 150.00-150.15, followed by 150.40-150.80, 151.90 (October 2022 high), and 152.80-153.15.

There is no significant economic data regarding the state of the Japanese economy scheduled for release in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Important Insights into the Past and Future

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First, a few words about the past month. Firstly, on Tuesday, October 31, bitcoin celebrated its birthday. It was on this day in 2008 that someone using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published (or it was published) a document titled "Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System." At the same time, it's worth noting that bitcoin itself emerged as a cryptocurrency on the market only on January 3, 2009. On that day, a block was mined, in which the date and a brief excerpt from an article in The Times were written: "The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks." On January 12, 2009, Nakamoto made the first transaction on the network, sending cryptocurrency to developer Hal Finney. In the same year, bitcoin was listed on the New Liberty Standart exchange. On it, you could buy 1309 BTC for just $1 (which is nearly $55 million today).

The second significant event was not the last day of October but the entire month. We are talking about the "Uptober effect" (a term formed from the English words "up" and "October"). According to observations by CoinGecko experts, in eight of the last ten years, the cryptocurrency market has shown growth in October compared to the previous month. On average, the "Uptober effect" led to a 14% increase in the total capitalization of digital assets, ranging from 7.3% in 2022 to 42.9% in 2021. The exceptions were 2014 and 2018 when the market fell by 12.7% and 8.3% in one month, respectively.

This year, starting at $27,000 on October 1, bitcoin tested the $35,000 level on October 24, showing an increase of approximately 30%. The final note of October placed the flagship cryptocurrency at $34,545. Several altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK) also demonstrated significant rallies. All these cryptocurrencies, paired with USD, are available for trading on the NordFX broker.

We have already mentioned that lately bitcoin has lost its inverse and direct correlation and has "decoupled" from both the US dollar and major risk assets. This was the case in the past week as well. Digital gold rose along with the US dollar's ascent and didn't react to the rise of stock indices like the S&P500. As a result, BTC/USD showed modest growth over the course of seven days.

According to Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of the venture company Eight and CEO of MN Trading, bitcoin has officially entered a bull market phase. The expert believes that the asset is ready for a rally to $50,000, followed by a correction, and then a new all-time high (ATH). Van De Poppe noted that bitcoin might face resistance at $38,000 but is likely to continue its rise and reach $45,000-50,000 in January 2024. However, the specialist also points out that a drop below $33,000 is still possible, and he sees it as an excellent opportunity to open long positions. The creators of the information resource Look Into Bitcoin also believe that after surpassing the $34,000 price level, the early phase of a bull market has begun. The next targets are $41,900 and $65,050.

What events in the near and not-so-distant future could have a significant impact on the crypto market? Let's list the most important ones, noting that many of them are happening or will happen in the United States.

First, of course, is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve (FRS). The "golden times" for digital gold were during the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic when the regulator literally flooded the market with streams of cheap money to support the economy, some of which went to risky assets like cryptocurrencies. Starting at $6,500 in March 2020, a year later in April 2021, BTC/USD reached a high of $64,800, showing a 900% increase. Then, the American regulator shifted towards tightening its policy and raising interest rates, and by 2022, the pair was trading around $16,000. Now, crypto investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to pivot towards easing again and hope that this will happen in the next year.

The US government regulatory bodies have lately been exerting significant negative pressure on the crypto industry. Perhaps something will change with the arrival of a new president in the White House in 2024. At least some of the candidates for this position promise support for the industry. For now, all the attention is focused on the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). The head of the SEC, Gary Gensler, has repeatedly stated that he is willing to recognize only bitcoin as a commodity, and in his opinion, all altcoins should be regulated under securities laws. Under this pressure, Ethereum, for example, significantly lagged behind bitcoin in terms of price dynamics. This year, at the time of writing this review, ETH has gained about 52%, while BTC has grown by twice as much, around 102%.

Legal battles between the SEC and representatives of the crypto industry are also drawing attention. Recently, Reuters and Bloomberg reported that the Commission will not appeal a court decision in favor of Grayscale Investments. There is also information that the SEC is ending its legal process against Ripple and its executives. However, the cold war with major crypto exchange Binance and its leadership continues. As a result, Binance's share in the spot market has already fallen from 55% to 34% this year. If the US Department of Justice joins forces with more severe charges on the SEC's side, it could deal a significant blow to the crypto market.

The appearance of spot BTC-ETFs also depends on the SEC. According to JPMorgan bank experts, a positive decision by the SEC on registering the first such funds can be expected "within months." "The timing of approval [...] remains uncertain, but it is likely to happen [...] before January 10, 2024 - the final deadline for the applications of ARK Invest and 21 Co. This is the earliest of the various final deadlines that the SEC must respond to," note JPMorgan experts. At the same time, experts also emphasize that the Commission, by supporting fair competition, may approve all applications at once.

The anticipation of the imminent launch of spot BTC-ETFs in the US is fuelling institutional interest in cryptocurrency. According to some estimates, this interest is around $15 trillion, which could eventually lead to BTC/USD rising to $200,000. Skybridge Capital's strategists even mention a larger figure of $250,000. However, due to obstacles from the SEC, according to Ernst & Newbie trader analysts, institutional interest is mainly deferred.

Peter Schiff, the CEO of Euro Pacific Capital and a prominent gold bug, holds the opposite view. According to him, the final approval of spot bitcoin ETFs will mark the end of the bull run for the leading cryptocurrency. Currently, bitcoin is trading around $35,000 because speculators are driving up the price, Currency carry trade on a positive regulator decision. When the decision is made, there will be no more room for such speculation, which could mark the peak of the rally if bitcoin doesn't crash before that. In Schiff's opinion, cryptocurrency traders may start selling their coins and taking profits even before the SEC makes any decision.

Something that doesn't depend on the regulator is the halving. Recall that in April 2024, the block reward will be halved, reducing from 6,250 BTC to 3,125 BTC, which is expected to lead to reduced issuance. According to some experts, this is a powerful deflationary factor that creates supply shortages and contributes to the rise in the value of bitcoin. Since the coin supply is limited, co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital, Anthony Pompliano, not only expresses optimism about a bull run for bitcoin but also calls it the "most disciplined central bank in the world." According to an optimistic forecast from Ark Invest, BTC could rise to $1.5 million by 2030.

However, the CEO of MN Trading, Van De Poppe, predicts that before bitcoin starts setting new highs, there will first be consolidation and sideways movement for an extended period after the April halving. Even more pessimism is added by a trader and analyst with the pseudonym Rekt Capital, who expects a sharp drop in BTC/USD by March 2024. After the halving, this specialist also anticipates consolidation, but in a very low range of $24,000-30,000, and only after that, in his opinion, the pair will enter a parabolic growth phase towards six-figure levels.

At the time of writing this review, on Friday, November 3, BTC/USD is trading at $34,590. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.29 trillion ($1.25 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Greed zone, though it has dropped from 72 to 65 points.

To conclude this review, in our irregular crypto life hacks section, we have an interesting tip. Where can you use the heat generated from cryptocurrency mining? The answer is in a sauna. A sauna in Brooklyn, New York, has started using the heat generated by mining equipment as a source of water heating. Saunas are becoming increasingly popular among Americans, and this twist benefits miners as it provides an additional argument in discussions about the public utility or significance of such entrepreneurial activities. And this is in New York, near the 40th parallel. Just imagine how useful this life hack could be in northern countries like Norway!
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 06, 2023, 10:58:48 AM
NordFX Wins Again in the Best Crypto Broker Category at the AllForexRating Awards

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Starting from 2017, the brokerage firm NordFX has received numerous awards for achievements and innovations in the field of cryptocurrency trading. These awards were given by both authoritative professional juries and through open voting by traders. This time, based on the results of voting by visitors to the AllForexRating portal, NordFX has once again achieved a resounding victory in the category of Best Crypto Broker. Receiving this award for the second year in a row underscores the high level and safety of the financial services that the company's clients receive.

The recent years have been quite challenging for the crypto industry. Factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, a series of bankruptcies among major industry players, pressure from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (FRS), and central banks of other leading countries have all had a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market capitalization, volatility, and digital asset quotes. In these conditions, NordFX clients have highly appreciated the reliability of the services offered, the opportunity to profit not only from the rise but also from the decline of cryptocurrencies, and the advantages of margin trading that allow for substantial profits even with a relatively small starting capital. For example, traders only need $150 to open a position of 1 Bitcoin, $15 to open a position of 1 Ethereum, $0.3 to open a position of 1 EOS, $0.02 to open a position of 1 Ripple, and $0.001 to open a position of 1 Doge.

The NordFX Savings Account has also gained significant popularity among traders and investors. It is a unique innovation based on DeFi technology. The benefits of DeFi allow account holders not only to earn passive income of up to 35% annually but also to increase their profits through independent trading on financial markets. You can easily take an instant trading loan at just 3% against the funds held in the Savings Account. The account balance can be in USD, BTC, ETH, USDT, DAI, BUSD, or other stablecoins.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 08, 2023, 02:37:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– Former Ethereum platform consultant Steven Nerayoff has accused Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin of fraudulent activities. He believes that the co-founders of ETH have misled the crypto community by using social media. Furthermore, according to the lawyer, Buterin and Lubin are involved in manoeuvres that are a thousand times larger in scale than the crimes committed by FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried.
"Statements by Buterin that he attempted to create a decentralized currency are fake. It was centralized from the beginning, and today, it is likely even more concentrated," Nerayoff wrote. In particular, the lawyer suggests the possibility of a secret agreement between the Ethereum network administration and high-ranking U.S. officials, such as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, at the early stages of altcoin initial placements.
"A small circle of ETH investors controls about 75% of all protocol assets. So now it's easy to manipulate the price or even set its lower or upper limit. Most of the trading you see on exchanges is fake or fictitious to create the illusion of liquidity," Nerayoff expanded on his accusations.
Previously, this lawyer speculated that the full-scale attack on Ripple by U.S. regulatory bodies could have been sponsored by influential ETH holders. In his view, Ripple's detractors may include individuals associated with the SEC, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and even some Ripple employees.

– Crypto investigator Truth Labs believes that it is not the U.S. but the Chinese conglomerate Wangxian Group that has decisive influence over the Ethereum network, and organizations close to the Communist Party of China (CPC) control almost 80% of mined ETH. Truth Labs also claims that Wangxian was one of the original sponsors of the Ethereum network in 2015. The group is also attributed with creating original wallets for Buterin.

– Co-founder of Estonian LHV Bank Rain Lõhmus lost the password to a wallet containing 250,000 ETH. The businessman acquired the coins during an ICO in July 2015, and they remained dormant since then. At that time, the purchase cost him $75,000. On November 10, 2021, when the Ethereum price reached an all-time high of around $4,800, Lõhmus's holdings grew to $1.22 billion. However, even now, they amount to approximately $470 million. Now, the businessman intends to recover the password using artificial intelligence. "My plan," he stated, "is to create Rain Lõhmus as an AI and see if he can retrieve his memories." The possibility of losing access to his funds, the businessman called a "weak point" of blockchain. "It makes you think that this perfect decentralization carries risks that you don't usually consider," Lõhmus shared his conclusions.

– The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin may not benefit either the main cryptocurrency or the people who use it. This is the opinion expressed by the former CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes. He referred to investment giants like BlackRock as "agents of the state." "The state needs its citizens to 'sit in the paper banking system' to tax them with inflationary taxes to repay constantly growing debts. This makes sense for institutional entities that are inherently subject to the state," he said.
According to Hayes, institutional interest in the asset poses a situation that "ultimately may not be to our liking." "Yes, it's good, an ETF emerges, the price rises to a level it can reach. But what is the ultimate benefit of one institution owning all of this cryptocurrency?" he questioned.

– The first cryptocurrency may reach the $47,000 mark by the end of November 2023, according to Rachel Lin, CEO of the decentralized derivatives exchange SynFutures. 'The past weeks have solidified October's reputation as 'Uptober,' with bitcoin gaining nearly 29%. What's even more interesting is that historically, November outperforms October with an average bitcoin return of over 35%. If this November delivers a similar profit, the asset will reach approximately $47,000,' she stated.
As an additional positive factor, Lin noted the growth in the number of users and transactions. In her view, the surge in spot trading volume with a noticeable increase in transfers exceeding $100,000 is particularly noteworthy. 'This is a clear indicator of heightened institutional interest,' the specialist believes. 'Major players are consolidating positions in digital assets, especially in BTC. If we look at the inflow last week, we can see a massive increase: about $325 million entered the sector, with almost $300 million going into bitcoin. Options data also reflect bullish market sentiment.”

– As highlighted by Markus Thielen, the head of research at Matrixport, recent macroeconomic shifts, especially in the Federal Reserve's policies, suggest a potential rally in the market of cryptocurrencies. He reminded us that after the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's policy tightening cycle in January 2019, digital gold (referring to bitcoin) appreciated fivefold. Thielen cautioned against expecting a repetition of such dynamics while explaining that the first cryptocurrency could 'make significant advances' in 2023 and 2024. According to the expert's calculations, bitcoin tends to grow by an average of 23% during the pre-Christmas period of November and December this year.

– Analyst using the alias "Doctor Profit" has shared a rather conservative forecast. He believes that the period leading up to the BTC halving will range between $26,000 and $41,000. In his opinion, investors should be prepared for possible corrections. The expert also does not rule out the possibility of "black swan" events, similar to the one that pushed BTC to local lows before the halving in May 2020 due to the COVID-19 outbreak.

– In an interview with CNBC, the founder of MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor, listed the factors that he believes will lead to a tenfold increase in the price of bitcoin in the medium term. First, he mentioned the upcoming halving, which is expected to increase demand for the cryptocurrency and create a shortage in the market. Another source of buyer pressure will be spot-based ETFs based on the first cryptocurrency.
The third factor will be the soon-to-be-implemented new fair value accounting rules for bitcoin reserves of companies in the United States. Saylor believes that this will open the door for corporations to adopt bitcoin as a treasury asset and create shareholder value. The entrepreneur also pointed out the positive effect of regulatory and law enforcement actions by authorities, including the lawsuit against the former CEO of the collapsed FTX exchange. According to Saylor, "all these early crypto cowboys, tokens that are unregistered securities, unreliable custodians" were liabilities for bitcoin. To take the crypto industry to a new level, it needs "parental supervision." The founder of MicroStrategy also believes that the industry needs to "move away from the 100,000 tokens" that are simply used for speculation and focus on bitcoin. "When the industry shifts its focus away from the small shiny tokens that distract and destroy shareholder value, I think it will move to the next level, and we will see a tenfold increase from where we are now," Saylor concluded.

– The founder of the bankrupt cryptocurrency exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried, has been found guilty of the alleged violations worth billions of dollars. On November 2, the jury delivered a guilty verdict in the case, convicting Bankman-Fried of seven episodes of fraud, money laundering, and criminal conspiracy. According to the law, the controversial businessman faces a minimum of 110 years in prison, essentially a life sentence. However, the judge has the discretion to impose a less severe punishment.

– CEO of ARK Investment Management, Catherine Wood, was asked which of the three asset classes she would prefer to hold for 10 years – cash, gold, or bitcoin. Without hesitation, she replied, "Without a doubt, bitcoin. It is capable of safeguarding savings from both inflation and deflation... It's digital gold." Wood noted that she expects cross-pollination between industries like AI and cryptocurrencies, believing that the first cryptocurrency will only benefit from innovation. As a reminder, according to her predictions, in the next decade, the price of BTC will exceed $1 million.

– While for Catherine Wood, bitcoin is "digital gold," for billionaire Charlie Munger, it's the "dumbest investment," "rat poison," and a "venereal disease." In a recent interview, this associate of Warren Buffett once again criticized digital gold. "When people start creating artificial currency, it's like adding spoiled product to a traditional recipe that has been around for a very long time and used by many people," the investor said. According to him, one of the effective ways to advance civilization is to have a strong currency. It could be shells, corn kernels, gold coins, or debt obligations - the key is that this currency is issued by a central bank.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 12, 2023, 01:15:37 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 13 - 17, 2023


EUR/USD: How Mr. Powell Aided the Dollar

The past week witnessed few significant events, which reflected in EUR/USD pair's fluctuations around 1.0700. Notably, there was a slight increase in the Dollar Index (DXY), starting at 105.05 and reaching a peak of 105.97 by Friday, November 10. This growth was primarily attributed to the "hawkish" comments made by the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

On Thursday, November 09, Jerome Powell, participating in a discussion on monetary policy organized by the International Monetary Fund, affirmed that decisions at each Federal Reserve meeting are made "based on the totality of incoming data and its impact on the outlook for economic activity and inflation." Powell expressed uncertainty about the Fed's success in implementing sufficiently restrictive policies to gradually reduce inflation to 2%. Additionally, he noted the rapid growth of the U.S. GDP, suggesting that further economic acceleration could undermine the progress achieved in stabilizing the labor market.

Powell's comments were validated by the data on initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ending November 04, totaling 217K, slightly below the previous figure of 220K. While the decrease is modest, it signifies a decline rather than an increase in unemployment.

Market interpretation of Powell's remarks hinted at the regulator's intention to raise the key interest rate once again. Consequently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds increased by almost 3%, surpassing the 4.6% mark, providing support to the dollar.

Downward pressure on EUR/USD was also exerted by macroeconomic statistics from the EU. In Germany, month-on-month inflation (CPI) showed a decrease from 0.3% to 0%. Retail sales volumes in the Eurozone as a whole declined by 0.3% in September after a 0.7% decrease in August. However, on an annual basis, this indicator dropped from -1.8% to -2.9%. Many analysts considered that such a decline in consumer activity ahead of the Christmas and New Year holidays could indicate the onset of a technical recession in the Eurozone before the end of the current year.

According to CME Group FedWatch data, markets are still pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will leave the interest rate unchanged in December 2023. Economists at Finland's Nordea Bank believe that the U.S. Central Bank will maintain the federal funds rate at the current level of 5.50% even in 2024.

However, it seems that the interest rate hike cycle for the Euro has likely come to an end. According to strategists at Wells Fargo, one of the largest banks in the U.S., the bleak growth prospects for the Eurozone suggest that the tightening of the ECB's monetary policy is likely over. The recent successes in reducing inflation strengthen their belief that the peak of rate hikes [4.50%] has already been reached.

Both Nordea and Wells Fargo agree that the ECB will likely be compelled to start reducing borrowing costs in the early summer of next year. "We do not anticipate the first ECB rate cut until the June 2024 meeting, although thereafter, it will consistently cut the deposit rate by 150 basis points to 2.50% from mid-2024 to early 2025. Overall, we believe the risk of rate cuts by the ECB will be higher than previously expected or more aggressive."

Factors such as improved global risk appetite and a slowdown in the U.S. economy could support the Euro. However, the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the ECB will continue to exert downward pressure on EUR/USD. This applies to the currencies of other major countries as well – if their central banks keep current interest rates unchanged or, more so, begin to lower them, the dollar may further strengthen its positions.

EUR/USD concluded the past week at the level of 1.0684. Currently, expert opinions regarding its immediate future are divided as follows: 25% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 60% sided with the euro, and 15% maintained neutrality.

In terms of technical analysis, 85% of oscillators on the D1 chart are colored green, and 15% are neutral-gray. Among trend indicators, the ratio is 70% to 30% in favor of green.

The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0620-1.0640, followed by 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0740, then 1.0800, 1.0865, 1.0945-1.0975, and 1.1065-1.1090, 1.1150, and 1.1260-1.1275.

Unlike the past, rather calm week, the upcoming one is expected to be more eventful. On Tuesday, November 14, data on Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the USA will be released, along with preliminary data on Eurozone GDP for Q3. The next day will bring statistics regarding retail sales volumes and Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States. On Thursday, November 16, as usual, data on the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the U.S. will be reported. Finally, on Friday, a crucial inflationary indicator, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI), will be disclosed.

GBP/USD: Dangerous Proximity to 1.2200

Recall that on November 3, the British currency received a strong bullish impulse following the release of U.S. labor market data. At that moment, GBP/USD literally surged upwards. On Monday, November 6, the pound rose again, reaching a height of 1.2427. However, it decided that it was time for the bulls to stop celebrating and that it was time for GBP/USD to return to the 1.2200 zone.

The trend reversal to the south was aided by statistics from the United Kingdom. In October, business activity in the country's construction sector increased only slightly, from 45.0 to 45.6. Meanwhile, orders in this sector have been declining for the fourth consecutive month, and they are already 20% lower than a year ago. The average mortgage rate now exceeds 8%, and the number of approved mortgage loans has been declining for the fourth consecutive month. Therefore, expecting a significant increase in business activity here is unlikely.

Although the GDP of the United Kingdom grew slightly in September, from 0.1% to 0.2%, it is likely to show a decline in the third quarter, from 0.2% to 0.0%, and remain at 0.6% on an annual basis. In such conditions, the Bank of England (BoE) is unlikely to raise interest rates in the near future. But it won't lower them either. BoE Chief Economist Hugh Pill recently stated that there is no need to raise rates to contain inflation but it is necessary to ensure the restrictive nature of monetary policy. In other words, the rate will remain the same, at 5.25%. As mentioned earlier, in such a situation, the advantage is likely to remain on the side of the dollar. This was clearly demonstrated by the market's reaction after the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on November 9. As soon as he made a vague hint about rates, GBP/USD rapidly plummeted.

The past week concluded with the pair settling at the level of 1.2225. According to economists at Scotiabank, the 1.2200 zone may serve as a short-term support point; however, weakness below this level indicates the risk of continued losses and a retest of the 1.2000-1.2100 area. Regarding the median forecast for the near future, 60% of analysts voted for a new upward move of the pair, 20% voted for a downward movement, and 20% took a neutral position. Among the D1 oscillators, 50% indicate a southward direction, 15% indicate northward, and the remaining 35% indicate eastward. Among trend indicators, only 15% point upward, while the overwhelming majority (85%) signal a downward trend. In the event of a southward movement, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the case of an upward movement, resistance levels will be at 1.2290-1.2335, 1.2430-1.2450, 1.2545-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

Noteworthy in the upcoming week's economic calendar for the United Kingdom is Tuesday, November 14. On this day, a comprehensive set of data on the country's labor market will be released. Moving on to Wednesday, November 15, when the value of the British Consumer Price Index (CPI) for October will be disclosed. Finally, rounding off the week on Friday, November 17, we anticipate the announcement of retail sales volumes in the United Kingdom. 

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 12, 2023, 01:17:04 PM
USD/JPY: Tough Times for the Yen Now, Good Times Ahead

The Bank of Japan (BoJ), in its meeting on October 31, decided to keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged, a stance it has maintained for a very long time. The regulator not only retained the negative interest rate at -0.1% but also kept the yield on 10-year government bonds (JGB) at the existing level. Some market participants were hopeful that, following inflation growth data, the BoJ would raise the yield ceiling from 1% to at least 1.25%. (It's worth noting that the yield on similar U.S. securities exceeded 4.6% on November 9.) However, instead of adjusting to clear signs of increasing inflationary pressure, the Bank of Japan continued to ignore them. This pushed USD/JPY to a peak of 151.71. It would have remained there if not for the U.S. labor market data on November 3, which brought it down to 149.34.

Many analysts believed that officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), with their verbal interventions and incantations, would keep the USD/JPY pair at these levels. If real yen purchases by the authorities were to occur, the pair was expected to continue its decline. However, this did not happen, and on November 10, the pair once again rose to the height of 151.59, concluding the five-day period not far from it at 151.51.

"Hardly surprising is USD/JPY upward trend," commented strategists at Commerzbank. "At current exchange rates, investments in the Japanese yen are simply not particularly attractive for foreign (and domestic) investors. [...] As long as Japan's monetary policy does not undergo a radical change, USD/JPY is likely to test another high soon. The Ministry of Finance will probably react again with the threat of interventions. However, if the Bank of Japan cannot resist making 'dovish' comments, and if the Ministry of Finance indeed intervenes, it will likely only temporarily prevent the rise in currency rates."

According to Dutch Rabobank, the slow pace of Japan's monetary policy normalization suggests that USD/JPY may continue trading above the 150.00 level in the coming weeks. However, the fear of actual interventions from the Japanese Ministry of Finance may impede its upward movement, and the market is likely to be very reluctant to push the pair towards 152.00 and beyond.

Meanwhile, analysts at the Singaporean United Overseas Bank (UOB) believe that the risk of the pair breaking above last week's peak near 151.80 has increased. This level is not far from last year's peak around 151.95, and if the dollar can breach this resistance zone, it is likely to continue its ascent to the 152.50 level in the next 1-3 weeks.

Despite forecasts of growth, experts, echoing officials from the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan, persist in stating that the current weakness of the yen is unjust. "Any increase in rate hike speculation will allow USD/JPY to move lower next year," predicts Rabobank. "We believe," they write, "that in the second half of 2024, the pair could return below the 145.00 level." "Fair value, based on spreads, equity yields, and trading conditions [...] suggests that the dollar is significantly overvalued and should trade closer to 144.50," according to economists at Scotiabank.

However, the question of when this "fairness" will be restored remains open. Soon, according to Societe Generale. In their view, the yen will undoubtedly continue to disappoint for some time, but the downward reversal in USD/JPY is getting closer and closer.

In discussing the near-term prospects of the pair, 55% of analysts anticipate the strengthening of the yen, while 10% have taken a neutral stance. About 35% voted for the pair breaking above 152.00 at the time of the review. Technical analysis supports the latter group, with 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 painted in green.

The closest support level is situated in the 150.00-150.15 zone, followed by 148.45-148.80, 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The nearest resistance lies at 151.70-151.90 (October 2022 high), followed by 152.80-153.15 and 156.25.

Aside from the release of preliminary GDP data for Japan's Q3 on Wednesday, November 15, no other significant statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Market Scandals and Records

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The past week was marked by two events: the Ethereum scandal and the subsequent rise of bitcoin and the overall crypto market. Let's start with the scandal.

Former Ethereum platform consultant, lawyer Steven Nerayoff, accused Vitalik Buterin and Joseph Lubin of fraudulent activities. He believes that the ETH co-founders were involved in machinations that exceed the scale of crimes committed by FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried (whom, by the way, the jury found guilty, facing up to 110 years in prison).

"Buterin's claims of attempting to create a decentralized currency are fake. It was centralized from the beginning, and today, this influence is even more concentrated," Nerayoff writes. "A small circle of ETH investors controls about 75% of all protocol assets. So now it's easy to manipulate the price or even set its upper or lower limit. Most of the trading you see on exchanges is fake or fictitious to create the appearance of liquidity," he continues with his revelations.

Nerayoff also suspects the existence of a secret agreement between the Ethereum network administration and high-ranking US officials, such as SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and former SEC Chairman Jay Clayton, which was concluded during the initial stages of the altcoin's launch. Earlier, the lawyer speculated that the full-scale attack on Ripple by US regulatory bodies could have been sponsored by influential ETH holders. In his opinion, Ripple's adversaries may include individuals connected to the SEC, the Department of Justice, the FBI, and even some Ripple employees.

Interestingly, crypto investigator Truth Labs made similar revelations. However, unlike Steven Nerayoff, they believe that it is not the US but the Chinese conglomerate Wangxian Group that has decisive influence over the Ethereum network, and organizations close to the Communist Party of China (CPC) control almost 80% of mined ETH. Truth Labs also claims that Wangxian was one of the early sponsors of the Ethereum network in 2015. This group is also credited with creating Buterin's original wallets.

Whether Nerayoff and Truth Labs can substantiate their accusations is a big question. For now, the price of ETH is rising and reached a maximum of $2,130. As for the leading cryptocurrency, on Thursday, November 9, BTC/USD broke through the $37,000 resistance and set a local high at $37,948: it last traded there in May 2022.

The development of the bullish trend in BTC has led to the updating of annual and historical indicators. The net capital inflow into the crypto market over the last 30 days reached $11 billion, a record for 2023. Institutions added $767 million to crypto funds over the last six weeks, surpassing last year's record of $736 million and reaching the level at the end of 2021. Open interest in bitcoin futures on the Chicago CME Exchange is also at the December 2021 level ($3.7 billion). Long-term holders continue to accumulate bitcoins, bringing their holdings to 14.9 million BTC (more than 70% of the total BTC issuance). The volume of their purchases exceeded 25,000 coins per month. Short-term investors and speculators have also become more active, influenced by the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect.

The list of records could go on, but what concerns everyone more is what comes next. If the current dynamics continue, demand for digital gold will keep growing, and supply will continue to decline. In that case, new local or even historical records and highs may be on the horizon.

We've repeatedly listed the factors contributing to the current BullRally. The key ones include the anticipated approval of SEC Bitcoin spot ETFs, the halving in April 2024, and the potential reversal of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Markus Thielen, Head of Research at Matrixport, reminded that after the end of the Fed's tightening cycle in January 2019, digital gold increased fivefold. However, Thielen cautioned against expecting a repeat of such dynamics but agreed that the leading cryptocurrency could "move significantly" in 2023 and 2024. According to his calculations, bitcoin tends to grow on average by 23% during the pre-Christmas period of November-December this year.

In addition to the growth drivers mentioned earlier, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor identified several factors that, in the medium term, could lead to a tenfold increase in the price of Bitcoin. According to Saylor, a positive development will be the soon-to-come new rules for accounting for Bitcoin reserves by companies in the United States. "In perspective, this will open the door for corporations to adopt Bitcoin as a treasury asset and create shareholder value," Saylor believes.

The entrepreneur also pointed to the positive effect of regulatory and law enforcement actions by authorities, including the trial of the former CEO of the collapsed FTX exchange. According to Saylor, "all these early crypto cowboys, tokens being unregistered securities, unreliable custodians" were passively benefiting bitcoin. To take the crypto industry to a new level, it needs "parental supervision." MicroStrategy's founder also thinks there is a need to "move away from the 100,000 tokens" that are merely used for speculation, back to bitcoin. "When the industry shifts its focus away from small shiny coins that distract attention and destroy shareholder value, I believe it will move to the next level, and we will get a 10x increase from the current level," Saylor concluded.

Note that this is not the most impressive forecast. CEO of ARK Investment, Catherine Wood, believes that in the next decade, the price of digital gold will exceed $1 million. (Note: Charlie Munger, Warren Buffett's longtime partner, recently criticized Bitcoin again, calling it a "tainted product" and adding to his previous descriptions like "the most foolish investment," "rat poison," and a "venereal disease.")

If we talk about the forecast for the near future, according to Rachel Lin, CEO of the SynFutures exchange, by the end of November, the first cryptocurrency could reach $47,000. "The past weeks have strengthened October's reputation as Uptober, with bitcoin gaining almost 29%. Even more interesting is that historically November outperforms October with an average bitcoin return of over 35%. If this November brings a similar profit, the asset will reach around $47,000," she calculated.

As an additional positive factor, Lin noted the growth in the number of users and transactions. In her opinion, the surge in spot trading volume with a noticeable increase in the number of payments over $100,000 is particularly noteworthy. "This is a clear indicator of increased institutional interest. Large players are consolidating positions in digital assets, especially in BTC," the specialist believes.

Despite the prevailing optimism, the analyst under the alias Doctor Profit believes that investors should be prepared for corrections and the emergence of "black swans," similar to those before the 2020 halving amid the COVID-19 outbreak. The expert does not exclude the possibility that bitcoin may drop to $26,000 before the upcoming April 2024 halving.

As of the writing of this review on Friday, November 10, BTC/USD is trading at $37,320. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.42 trillion, compared to $1.29 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased from 65 to 70 points and continues to remain in the Greed zone.

In conclusion of the review, let's delve into our irregular segment of crypto life hacks. So, what do you do if you've lost the password to your crypto wallet? The answer comes from Rain Lõhmus, co-founder of Estonian LHV Bank. During the ICO in July 2015, he acquired 250,000 ETH for $75,000. On November 10, 2021, when the price of Ethereum reached an all-time high of around $4,800, Lõhmus's holdings grew to $1.22 billion. Even now, they are valued at over $500 million. Throughout this time, the coins remained dormant. At some point, the businessman discovered that he had lost the wallet password and now intends to recover it using artificial intelligence. "My plan," he stated, "is to create an AI version of Rain Lõhmus and see if it can retrieve its memories." The banker shared his plans. (By the way, the artificial intelligence ChatGPT predicted that the value of Ethereum by the beginning of 2024 would range from $3,000 to $10,000. If this happens, Lõhmus could become a billionaire again—assuming he finds the wallet password.)
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 15, 2023, 03:16:08 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/15/FayCT.jpeg)

– Thanks to the rise in the price of the main cryptocurrency, since the beginning of the year, the number of bitcoin-millionaires has tripled. As of November 12, their count stood at 88,628, compared to 28,084 on January 5. This surge represents a growth of 215%. When categorizing millionaires by capital size, those with a minimum of $1 million amounted to 81,962, while those with holdings of at least $10 million numbered 6,666. These figures are sourced from the Wayback Machine web arcRisk aversione.

– Changpeng Zhao, the CEO of the crypto exchange Binance, referred to the economic model of bitcoin as "the greatest business model ever invented in our world." He made this comment in response to data indicating that mining revenues reached new highs. According to media reports, on November 12 alone, BTC miners earned over $44 million in rewards and block fees. This marks the highest daily income in the past year, surpassing the record set in April 2022.

– Security blockchain company SlowMist specialists uncovered a counterfeit Skype application used by hackers in China to steal hundreds of thousands of dollars in various cryptocurrencies. Exploiting the country's ban on international messengers, users are forced to download them from unofficial sources. In addition to the malicious pseudo-Skype, hackers used a phishing domain posing as Binance exchange. This allowed them to track messages with addresses resembling TRX and ETH formats. Subsequently, wallets were replaced with those owned by the hackers. The SlowMist team identified and blacklisted over 100 such fraudulent wallets. One of them alone received 110 transactions totalling over 192,856 USDT, stolen from users in China.

– Senator Cynthia Lummis defended the crypto industry and opposed claims that cryptocurrencies are actively used in illegal financial activities. She appealed to the U.S. Congress with a request not to succumb to speculative attacks and emphasized that illegal financial operations are a problem in any economic sector, not related to the asset class but rather to the opportunities for wrongdoers to commit such crimes. "Cryptocurrency is present in less than 1% of the total volume of all illegal financial activities. If we could create a regulatory structure allowing the crypto industry to operate in America, rather than in unregulated foreign markets, its share would be even smaller," said the senator. The reason for Cynthia Lummis's statement was several U.S. news agencies reporting that on the eve of the invasion of Israel, the military wing of HAMAS collected millions of dollars in cryptocurrency. Against this backdrop, Senator Elizabeth Warren, a long-time advocate for stricter crypto regulation, formed a coalition of more than 100 senators demanding the immediate adoption of new rules to combat terrorism financing and money laundering in cryptocurrency.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, believes that central banks, such as the US Federal Reserve (FRS), are not designed to protect the average person. For this reason, the expert advised exercising wisdom and cited the example of the wealthy. According to him, millionaires do not work for "fake" money, such as the US dollar; instead, they invest in "real assets" like rental properties, gold, silver, and bitcoins, providing long-term financial security and freedom.

– Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital and known as the "gold bug" and a staunch critic of Bitcoin, conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter) about when the crash of the main cryptocurrency would occur. The responses did not please him much, as the majority of respondents (68.1%) believe that the asset should be bought and held. 23% of those surveyed predicted the crash of the coin after the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Only 8.9% voted for the crash to happen before the launch of these exchange-traded funds. Despite the results, Schiff was not deterred, and in his comments, as usual, he took an extremely negative position. "Based on the results obtained," the financier wrote, "I assume that Bitcoin will fall before the ETF launch. Therefore, people who bought into the rumours will not receive any real profit."

– In contrast to Peter Schiff, analysts from Bernstein predict that if spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved, the asset's price will reach $150,000 by 2025. Meanwhile, their colleagues from LookIntoBitcoin recommend taking profits when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000. To determine the peak height to which BTC will rise, LookIntoBitcoin specialists calculated the so-called Terminal Price of the coin. It is calculated considering various factors, including the time between BTC mining and spending, as well as the amount of coins in circulation. The calculations showed that bitcoin will reach the Terminal Price during the next bull run, expected to end in late 2025. After that, a dump will begin, and the BTC price, as usual, will rapidly decline.

– According to ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, in the next seven years, the total value of crypto assets could reach $25 trillion, driven by industry development and widespread adoption. She made this forecast while commenting on applications for exchange-traded BTC-ETFs. According to her, traditional markets demonstrate a "flight to quality," as Larry Fink, the head of BlackRock, stated, or a "flight to safety," as stated in ARK Invest. This happens because "Bitcoin does not carry counterparty risk." "Look at what happened during the regional banking crisis. Bitcoin rose from $19,000 to almost $30,000 because the KRE, the regional bank index, collapsed. If you look at this stock index today, it has again dropped to the level it was in March," she added. Wood is confident in the success of the flagship cryptocurrency because "most people understand that bitcoin is a monetary revolution. It is the first global, private, digitally based, rule-based monetary system in history." It's worth noting that Cathy Wood is not alone in her super-optimistic forecasts: Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that within five years, digital gold will rise to $500,000.

– According to Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino, local businesses in Argentina are massively transitioning to payments in bitcoins and USDT. Argentinians and tourists can now even buy products with the USDT stablecoin at the Central Market in Buenos Aires: one of the largest fruit and vegetable suppliers in Latin America. The adoption of cryptocurrency in the country is thriving due to hyperinflation and the devaluation of the paper peso. The inflation rate here rose to 108.8% (YoY) in April, remaining the highest since 1991. Six months ago, the Central Bank of Argentina raised the interest rate to 97%, but this stringent step turned out to be insufficient to curb price growth.

– Bitfinex exchange analysts warn that the price of Bitcoin has reached a local maximum and may correct soon. Currently, according to their report, the average short-term holder realized price (STH RP) of BTC is $30,380, and the difference between this figure and the current asset price is the highest since April 2022. Historically, this indicates that the coin's price has reached a local maximum and may correct to the STH RP level, i.e., drop to the range of $30,000–$31,000. Analyst Doctor Profit also expects a correction, believing that the next correction following positive dynamics will bring BTC back to around $34,000. "The market is overheated right now. Correction is a matter of time," he wrote on his microblog.

– Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, analysed the current price of Ethereum. In his opinion, overcoming the altcoin resistance at $2,150 will signify the end of the bear market and push the cryptocurrency above the $3,000 threshold, where it may stabilize in the range of $3,100-$3,600. (It's worth noting that the price of Ethereum is above the 200-day SMA, and the coin showed 22 green days in the previous month).

– Matrixport analysts believe that a confident breakthrough above $36,000 will propel the price of the first cryptocurrency to the $40,000 resistance. After that, it will open the way to the $45,000 height, which can be reached by the end of 2023. "Given the steady growth in the number of buyers during US trading hours, we can expect price increases by the end of the month (and year). The Santa Claus rally could start at any moment," the specialists emphasized. As for 2024, Matrixport named six possible drivers that will contribute to positive dynamics: 1) SEC approval of Bitcoin ETF with trading beginning in February-March 2024; 2) IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC; 3) court approval to restart FTX exchange in December 2023, with actual resumption of work in May-June; 4) bitcoin halving; 5) implementation of EIP-4844 following the Dencun hard fork in the Ethereum blockchain in the first quarter of 2024; 6) possible start of the easing of the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy by mid-2024.

– Many participants in the crypto community supported Matrixport's positive forecast. Analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that BTC will soon realize an impulse that will send the coin to $40,000. Trader CryptoCon also joined the optimists. According to his calculations, BTC has a "cushion" up to $47,000. The level, as he believes, can be reached in the summer of 2024, after which a correction to around $31,000 is possible. CryptoCon is confident that the active growth phase, against the backdrop of the halving, will occur at the end of 2024 – the beginning of 2025.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 19, 2023, 09:14:47 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 20 - 24, 2023


EUR/USD: November 14 - a Dark Day for the Dollar

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In the previous review, the overwhelming majority of experts expressed opinions favouring further weakening of the American currency. This prediction came to fruition. The Consumer Inflation report in the United States, published on Tuesday, November 14, toppled the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact, including on the dynamics of EUR/USD, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle, rising nearly 200 points.

It is noteworthy that exactly a year ago, after the release of data on October inflation, U.S. bond yields plummeted, stock indices soared, and the dollar significantly declined against major world currencies. And history repeated itself. This time, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the U.S. for October decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%: the lowest level since September 2021.

In reality, a 0.1% drop in inflation is not that significant. However, the market's strong reaction demonstrated how overbought the dollar was. As analysts at ING (Internationale Nederlanden Groep) write, a powerful bullish trend in Q3 this year led to a 4.9% increase in the dollar. Keeping the dollar strong was easy due to the high interest rates and increased yields of U.S. Treasury bonds.

But everything comes to an end at some point. The data released on November 14 confirmed the weakening of inflationary pressure and convinced the market that the Federal Reserve (FRS) would no longer raise the key interest rate. Moreover, market participants now do not rule out that the regulator may shift to easing its monetary policy not in the middle of next summer but as early as the spring of the following year. ING economists believe that the onset of a recession in the U.S. will compel the FRS to cut the rate by 150 basis points in Q2 2024. According to MUFG Bank, the probability of a rate cut in May 2024 is now 80%, in March – 30%. Such a reduction will halt the dollar's bullish rally, support so-called commodity currencies, and, as MUFG believes, EUR/USD could reach the height of 1.1500 over the next year.

As for the near-term outlook, according to Societe Generale economists, regardless of the outcomes of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 13 and the ECB on December 14, seasonal trends for the euro in the last month of 2023 are bullish. However, the dollar may be supported by weak growth rates in the Eurozone. Germany's economy is in a state of stagnation, preliminary GDP data for the Eurozone showed a decline of -0.1% in Q3, and the European Commission lowered the economic growth forecast for 2023 from 0.8% to 0.6%. Therefore, the euro may also come under pressure from speculation about a cut in the ECB interest rate.

EUR/USD finished the past week at the level of 1.0913. Currently, experts' opinions on its immediate future are divided as follows: 60% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 25% sided with the euro, and 15% remained neutral. As for technical analysis, 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are coloured green, but 25% of the latter are in overbought territory. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0830, then 1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance in the area, then 1.0945-1.0975 and 1.1065-1.1090, 1.1150, 1.1260-1.1275.

 Next week, on Wednesday, November 22, the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be published. On Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in Germany and the Eurozone will be released, and the following day will bring similar indicators from the U.S. Additionally, traders should take into account that on Friday in the United States, markets will close early as the country observes Thanksgiving Day.

GBP/USD: Surprise from UK CPI

The strengthening of the pound on U.S. inflation data turned out to be even greater than that of the euro. On November 14, GBP/USD rose by 240 points, from 1.2265 to 1.2505. This is good news for the British currency. However, there is also bad news: inflation in the United Kingdom is on the decline.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in October decreased from 0.5% to 0% (m/m) and fell from 6.7% to 4.6% on an annual basis. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 6.1% to 5.7%. All these figures turned out to be below expectations and were a surprise not only for the market but also for British officials.

Megan Greene, a member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, stated in an interview with Bloomberg TV on November 16 that despite the current decline in inflation, wage growth in the UK remains incredibly high, and labour productivity is low. These two factors complicate the movement toward the target CPI level of 2.0% and make one wonder whether the Bank of England's policy is restrictive enough. According to Megan Greene, BoE might have to stick to a restrictive policy longer than anticipated.

If inflation does not bring new surprises, it is unlikely that the Bank of England will continue to raise interest rates in the coming months. But even if it continues to keep it at the current level of 5.25%, while the Federal Reserve starts lowering rates, it will benefit the pound. However, at the moment, making any forecasts is quite challenging.

"We remain cautious for now," write economists at German Commerzbank. "One surprise does not mean everything is settled. And given the remarkable instability of inflation in the UK, there is a risk that the return to the target inflation level will be uneven. Wage data released on Tuesday also confirms this view. At the moment, the Bank of England can breathe a sigh of relief, but caution is still necessary."

GBP/USD ended the past week at the level of 1.2462. As for the median forecast of analysts for the near future, here their voices were divided equally: a third of them pointed north, a third to the south, and a third to the east. For D1 trend indicators, 90% point north, 10% to the south. All 100% of oscillators are looking up, with 15% of them signalling overbought conditions. In the event of the pair moving south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2390-1.2420, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2040-1.2085, 1.1960, and 1.1800-1.1840, 1.1720, 1.1595-1.1625, 1.1450-1.1475. In the case of the pair rising, it will face resistance at levels 1.2500-1.2510, then 1.2545-1.2575, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

Events of the upcoming week in the calendar include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Tuesday, November 21. The following day will see the release of the Inflation Report and discussion of the country's budget, and on Thursday, November 23, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in various sectors of the UK economy will be released.

USD/JPY: U.S. Treasuries Expected to Rescue the Yen

On November 13, USD/JPY reached a height of 151.90, updating a multi-month high and returning to where it traded in October 2022. However, on U.S. inflation data, the yen staged a comeback.

Unlike the U.S. CPI, macro statistics from Japan had minimal impact on the yen, though there were notable points to consider. For instance, the country's GDP in the third quarter showed a decline of -0.5% after a 1.2% growth in the previous period and a forecast of -0.1%. Against this backdrop, the head of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kadsuo Ueda, made a surprising statement on Friday, November 17, stating that the country's economy is recovering and is likely to continue doing so, albeit at a moderate pace.

Ueda is not certain that the weak yen negatively affects the Japanese economy. On the contrary, this weakness has a positive impact on exports and the profits of Japanese companies operating in the global market. Therefore, the head of the regulator is unsure about the order and extent to which the Bank of Japan will change its monetary policy. "We will consider ending the YCC policy and negative rates if we can expect our inflation target to be reached on a stable and sustainable basis," vaguely stated Kadsuo Ueda.

Meanwhile, Japan's Finance Minister, Sin'iti Sudzuki, stated that he is ready to take necessary measures in case of increased speculative pressure on the national currency. Deputy Minister Ryosei Akazawa supported his chief and reiterated that the government would intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb excessive volatility. The words of both officials somewhat strengthened the national currency, and on Friday, November 17, it found a local bottom at the level of 149.19. The final chord sounded slightly higher – at 149.56.

Hopes that the BoJ will eventually tighten its monetary policy continue to linger among market participants. Strategists at Danske Bank, for example, predict a decline in USD/JPY below the 140.00 mark within 6-12 months. In their view, this is primarily due to the fact that the yield of long-term U.S. bonds has peaked. "We expect that in the coming year, the yield differential will contribute to the strengthening of the Japanese yen," they write. "In addition, historical data suggest that global conditions characterized by slowing growth and inflation favor the strengthening of the Japanese yen."

Speaking of the near-term prospects for the pair, 65% of analysts expect further strengthening of the yen, while 35% anticipate a new advance of the dollar. As for the technical analysis on D1, the forecast here is maximally neutral. Both among trend indicators and oscillators, the ratio between red and green is 50-50. The nearest support level is in the zone of 149.20, then 148.40-148.70, 146.85-147.30, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, 142.20. The nearest resistance is 150.00-150.15, then 151.70-151.90 (October 2022 maximum), further 152.80-153.15, and 156.25.

There is no planned release of any other significant statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: When Will You Become a Bitcoin Millionaire?

According to the Wayback Machine web arcRisk aversione, the surge in the value of the main cryptocurrency has led to a threefold increase in bitcoin millionaires since the beginning of the year. As of November 12, their count reached 88,628, a significant jump from the 28,084 recorded on January 5. Notably, bitcoin's price rose from $16,500 to $37,000 during this period.

Now, envision the potential scenario envisioned by Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, where digital gold could soar to $500,000 within the next five years. Could the number of millionaires surpass a million? Moreover, when the BTC rate exceeds $1 million, as forecasted by ARK Investment CEO Catherine Wood, could we also join the ranks of those possessing this coveted wealth? It's highly desired that these aspirations materialize. Now, let's delve into why they could become reality and why they might crumble into fragments.

The experts at Matrixport have identified six drivers that, in their opinion, will contribute to the emergence of a BullRally in the coming months. These are: 1) SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs with trading expected to commence in February-March 2024; 2) the IPO of Circle, the issuer of USDC; 3) court approval for the relaunch of the FTX exchange in December 2023, with actual resumption of operations in May-June; 4) the bitcoin network halving; 5) the implementation of EIP-4844 following the Dencun hard fork in the Ethereum blockchain in Q1 2024; 6) the potential onset of easing in the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve by mid-2024.

Diving deeper into two of these factors, the first and the fourth: they currently play a crucial role in accelerating the accumulation of BTC by hodlers, surpassing the issuance of new coins by 2.2 times. Notably, over 57% of coins from the circulating supply have been dormant in wallets for over two years. Simultaneously, the supply from short-term holders and speculators is sharply decreasing. This dynamic creates a significant deficit in the digital gold market, propelling prices upward. Many experts anticipate that this trend will intensify significantly after the approval of spot ETFs and the 2024 halving.

According to the analytics agency Glassnode, since mid-2022, due to the decline in crypto asset prices, miners have been compelled to sell nearly all the coins they mined to cover operational expenses and payments on debts, amounting to approximately $1 billion per month. After the halving and a 50% reduction in rewards, this volume is expected to decrease to $0.5 billion. Some companies may struggle to sustain mining operations altogether. The influx of new coins is projected to drop from 81,000 to 40,500 per quarter, further amplifying the supply shortage and driving prices upward. Historical data indicates that, in the year following halvings, BTC prices surged by 460% to 7745%.

Regarding the potential influx of institutional capital upon approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), much has already been discussed. Let's delve into a few more forecasts. According to analysts at CryptoQuant, the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization would rapidly increase by $1 trillion in this scenario. Approximately ~1% of assets under management (AUM) from managing companies would enter the bitcoin market, potentially raising the market capitalization of digital gold by $450-900 billion. In terms of price, this suggests a short-term increase for the BTC/USD pair to $50,000-73,000.

Analysts from Bernstein predict that, in the event of bitcoin ETF approval, the asset's price could reach $150,000 by 2025. Meanwhile, their counterparts at LookIntoBitcoin advise profit-taking when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000. To determine the peak height to which BTC will rise, LookIntoBitcoin specialists calculated the so-called Terminal Price. This is computed considering various factors, including the time between bitcoin mining and spending, as well as the quantity of coins in circulation. Calculations indicate that bitcoin will reach the Terminal Price during the next bull rally, expected to conclude by the end of 2025. Looking at a longer horizon, one can explore the forecasts of Mike Novogratz and Catherine Wood for the next five to seven years (see above).

And now, a bucket of cold water poured on the hot heads of crypto optimists by analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world's largest banks. They recently released a sceptical report that scrutinizes investor expectations. The main theses are as follows: 1) The introduction of spot ETFs will only lead to a capital shift from existing investment products (such as Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) but will not generate new demand; 2) Lost SEC cases [against Ripple and Grayscale] will not increase loyalty in crypto regulation, and as the regulatory framework takes shape, the situation will only become more stringent; 3) The impact of the halving is unpredictable, as the reward reduction is already factored into the price.

So, what awaits the leading cryptocurrency? This is the question posed by Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital, known as the "gold bug" and a fervent critic of bitcoin. This billionaire conducted a poll on X (formerly Twitter) on the topic of when the crash of the leading cryptocurrency will occur. The majority of respondents (68.1%) believe that the asset should be bought and held. 23% of those surveyed predicted the coin's crash after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs. Only 8.9% voted for the crash to happen before the launch of these exchange-traded funds.

Now about the current situation. Bitfinex exchange analysts warn that the price of bitcoin has reached a local maximum and may correct in the near future. According to their report, the average purchase price of BTC by short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price – STH RP) is currently at $30,380, and the difference between this figure and the current price of the asset is the highest since April 2022. Historically, this indicates that the coin's price has reached a local maximum and may correct to the STH RP level, dropping to the $30,000–$31,000 range.

Doctor Profit, an analyst, also anticipates a correction and believes that the next correction following the positive trend will bring BTC back to around $34,000. "The market is overheated right now. Correction is a matter of time," he wrote on his microblog.

On the contrary, Matrixport analysts believe that a confident breakthrough above $36,000 will push the price of the leading cryptocurrency towards the $40,000 resistance. After that, it may open the way to the $45,000 height, which could be reached by the end of 2023. "Considering the steady growth in the number of buyers during US trading hours, we can see price growth by the end of the month (and year). Santa Claus rally can start at any moment," emphasized the specialists.

Many members of the crypto community supported Matrixport's positive forecast. Analyst CrediBULL Crypto believes that BTC will soon realize an impulse that will send the coin to $40,000. Trader CryptoCon also joined the optimists. According to his calculations, BTC has room to reach $47,000. However, he believes that this level may only be reached in the summer of 2024, after which a correction to around $31,000 is possible. The active growth phase due to the halving, according to CryptoCon, is expected by the end of 2024 – the beginning of 2025.

As of the writing of this review on Friday, November 17, BTC/USD is trading at $36,380. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.38 trillion ($1.42 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped from 70 to 63 points but still remains in the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 22, 2023, 04:11:27 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/22/F8IBG.jpeg)

– The largest crypto exchange, Binance, has announced that it has reached a global agreement with the U.S. Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network in connection with their investigations into issues related to registration, compliance, and violations of anti-Russian sanctions.
As part of the agreement, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) stepped down from the position of CEO of the exchange as of November 21, 2023. Additionally, under the terms of the agreement, Binance will pay regulators and law enforcement authorities substantial amounts (approximately $7 billion) in fines and compensations to resolve charges and claims against them.
In addition to the financial settlement, Binance has agreed to completely withdraw from U.S. markets and will "adhere to a set of stringent sanctions compliance commitments." Furthermore, the exchange will be under the five-year observation of the U.S. Tresrey service with open access to its financial records, records, and systems.
While such a significant fine will heavily impact the company, experts view this decision unequivocally positively, considering the exchange's leading role. Representatives of Binance also stated their firm belief in both the crypto industry and the bright future of their company.

– Bittrex Global, another crypto exchange based in Liechtenstein, will cease all operations and halt trading on December 4th. The exchange's management strongly advises all customers to log into their accounts and withdraw their assets as soon as possible. Bittrex Global has already frozen its referral program and halted advertising campaigns.

– Scammers recently conducted another fake cryptocurrency giveaway impersonating Elon Musk. The campaign included live video streams on YouTube featuring a deepfake of Musk. The individual in the video spoke with a generated voice. Participants were initially required to send cryptocurrency to specified addresses to take part in the giveaway. They were promised to receive the cryptocurrency back to their wallets, but with a 200% bonus. According to experts from BitOK, even several well-known news outlets fell into the trap, sharing links to the fake broadcasts.

– Javier Milei, a libertarian and implicit supporter of bitcoin, emerged victorious in the second round of the presidential elections in Argentina. He will assume the presidency of the country on December 10.
Due to the economic crisis, the Argentine peso is rapidly depreciating, with inflation exceeding 140% over the last 12 months. Milei blames the central bank for the troubles affecting the state's residents, branding the agency's employees as fraudsters. He believes they devised a mechanism to deceive citizens through an inflation tax.
During the electoral campaign, Javier adeptly manipulated his positive statements about bitcoin, stating that, thanks to this cryptocurrency, "money will return to its creator – the private sector of the economy." However, the new head of Argentina has not yet declared his intention to recognize bitcoin as legal tender, following the example of President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador. Furthermore, he has advocated for a dollarization policy, entailing the replacement of the Argentine peso with the US dollar.

– Can we expect a new significant downward correction from bitcoin? According to the well-known analyst Willy Woo, this is unlikely. He examined blockchain data reflecting the average purchase price of BTC by investors, based on which he concluded that the main cryptocurrency probably won't fall below $30,000 again.
Woo shared with readers a chart showing a dense gray band, indicating the price around which a significant portion of the bitcoin supply fluctuated at that time. According to Woo, this reflects "strong consensus value." The analyst claims that since the creation of bitcoin, this band has acted as reliable price support. Woo's chart shows that such bands have formed eight times throughout the entire existence of bitcoin and have always supported its price.
However, not everyone trusts Woo's calculations. For instance, an analyst using the pseudonym TXMC reminded that in 2021, Woo made a similar forecast, stating that bitcoin would never drop below $40,000. Yet, the following year saw precisely that happening.

– According to the calculations of several experts, the fundamental indicators of the cryptocurrency have never looked better. For instance, 70% of the existing supply of BTC has not moved from one wallet to another during this year, marking a record in bitcoin's history. Such withdrawal rates are extraordinary for a financial asset, as summarized by a group of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.
Another positive factor is the upcoming halving, which could reduce the monthly selling pressure from miners from $1 billion to $500 million (at today's BTC rate of $37,000).
Additionally, the potential approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is seen as a positive catalyst. This approval would facilitate large investors' access to the cryptocurrency. According to experts from Bernstein, against this backdrop, the price of the leading cryptocurrency could rise to $150,000 by the beginning of 2025.

– Apple users have filed a collective lawsuit against the tech giant, accusing it of unfair competition due to restrictions on cryptocurrency payments. The document filed in the California district court claims that Apple entered into a "secret agreement" with Venmo, PayPal, and Cash App to limit users' use of decentralized cryptocurrency technology in payment applications.
The plaintiffs also allege that Apple employs "technological and contractual restrictions," including hardware exclusivity in the App Store and "constraints on web browser technology," to "exercise unlimited control over each application installed and launched on iPhone and iPad." As a result, users are forced to pay higher trading commissions.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Apple has faced such lawsuits. The court ruling in the Epic Games lawsuit against Apple stated in April 2023 that software providers in the App Store are allowed to offer alternative payment options to avoid high commissions.

– Experts from the analytical company Glassnode highlight a continuous outflow of BTC coins from exchanges. The overall supply of the primary cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly scarce, and the circulating supply is currently at a historical minimum.
In a recent report by Glassnode, it is stated that 83.6% of all circulating bitcoins were acquired by current owners at a lower cost than the current market value. If this metric surpasses the 90% mark, it could indicate the beginning of the euphoria stage, where almost all market participants have unrealized profits.
According to analysts, statistically, these figures can help determine the current stage of the market. For instance, when less than 58% of all BTC coins are profitable, the market is considered to be in the bottom formation stage. Once the metric surpasses the 58% mark, the market transitions to the recovery stage, and above 90%, it enters the euphoria stage.
Glassnode believes that over the past ten months, the market has been in the second of these three stages, recovering from a series of negative events in 2022, such as the collapse of the Luna project and the bankruptcy of the FTX crypto exchange.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 25, 2023, 03:11:05 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for November 27 – December 01, 2023


EUR/USD: Day of Thanksgiving and Week of Contradictions

Reminder that the American currency came under significant pressure on November 14 following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report in the USA. In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased from 0.4% to 0% (m/m), and on an annual basis, it dropped from 3.7% to 3.2%. The Core CPI for the same period decreased from 4.1% to 4.0%: reaching the lowest level since September 2021. These figures caused a tumble in the Dollar Index (DXY) from 105.75 to 103.84. According to Bank of America, this marked the most significant dollar sell-off since the beginning of the year. Naturally, this had an impact on the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair, which marked this day with an impressive bullish candle of almost 200 pips, reaching resistance in the 1.0900 zone.

DXY continued to consolidate near 103.80 last week, maintaining positions at the lows from the end of August to the beginning of September. Meanwhile, the EUR/USD pair, transforming 1.0900 from resistance to a pivot point, continued its movement along this line.

Market reassurance, besides Thanksgiving Day, was also influenced by the uncertainty regarding what to expect from the Federal Reserve (FRS) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Following the release of the inflation report, the majority of investors believed in the imminent conclusion of the hawkish monetary policy of the American central bank. Expectations that the regulator would raise interest rates at its meeting on December 14 plummeted to zero. Moreover, among market participants, the opinion circulated that the FRS might shift towards easing its monetary policy not in mid-summer but already in the spring of the following year.

However, the minutes of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting were published on November 21, and their content contradicted market expectations. The minutes indicated that the leadership of the regulator considered the possibility of additional tightening of monetary policy in case of inflation growth. Furthermore, FRS members concluded that it would be prudent to keep the rate high until inflation reaches the target.

The content of the minutes slightly supported the American currency: EUR/USD crossed the 1.0900 horizon from top to bottom, dropping from 1.0964 to 1.0852. However, overall, the market reaction was restrained since the formulations mentioned above were quite vague and lacked specificity regarding the future monetary policy of the United States.

If in the United States, market expectations clashed with the FRS protocols, in Europe, the ECB protocols contradicted the subsequent rhetoric of individual leaders of this regulator. In its latest protocol, the Governing Council of the European Central Bank left the door open for the resumption of the monetary restriction cycle and urged policymakers to avoid unwarranted easing of financial conditions. A similar sentiment was expressed by the ECB President, Christine Lagarde, in her speech on Friday, November 24, stating that the fight against inflation is not yet over. However, a little earlier, the head of the Bank of France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated that interest rates would not be raised anymore.

So, the question of what the future monetary policy of the ECB will be remains open. In favour of hawks, it is noted that wage growth in the Eurozone accelerated in Q3 from 4.4% to 4.7%, and purchasing managers highlighted an increase in inflationary pressure. On the other hand, the Eurozone's economy continues to experience stagflation. Business activity (PMI) has been below the critical 50-point mark for the sixth consecutive month, indicating technical recession.

A glimmer of light in the darkness came from macro statistics from Germany, some indicators of which gradually improved. PMI dropped to a minimum of 38.8 points in July and then began to grow slowly. Preliminary data published on Thursday, November 23rd, showed that this index rose to 47.1 (though still below 50.0). The economic sentiment index from the ZEW Institute returned to the positive territory for the first time in half a year, sharply rising from -1.1 to 9.8. According to some economists, this growth is likely linked to a noticeable decrease in inflation (CPI) in Germany over the last two months: from 6.1% to 3.8%.

However, only desperate optimists can claim that the country's economy has rebounded and transitioned to recovery. Germany's recession is far from over. For the fourth consecutive quarter, GDP is not growing; worse yet, it is contracting: GDP for Q3 2023 decreased by 0.1% and compared to the same quarter of the previous year, it declined by 0.4%. According to Bloomberg, the budget crisis in Germany could lead to many infrastructure and environmental projects not receiving funding. As a result, economic growth may slow down by 0.5% next year.

In general, the prospects for both currencies, the dollar and the euro, are shrouded in the fog of uncertainty. As economists from the Japanese MUFG Bank note, "the window for the dollar to reach the highs set in October and/or beyond may already be closed. However, the growth prospects in the Eurozone also do not indicate significant opportunities for EUR/USD."

For the second consecutive week, EUR/USD concluded near the 1.0900 level, specifically at 1.0938. Currently, expert opinions regarding its near future are divided as follows: 40% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 40% sided with the euro, and 20% remained neutral. In terms of technical analysis, all trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe are in green, but one-third of the latter are in overbought territory. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0900, followed by 1.0830-1.0840, 1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0965-1.0985, 1.1070-1.1090, 1.1150, 1.1260-1.1275, and 1.1475.

In the upcoming week, preliminary inflation (CPI) data for Germany and the GDP for the United States for Q3 will be released on Wednesday, November 29. The following day will reveal the CPI and retail sales volumes for the Eurozone as a whole, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. The workweek will conclude on Friday, December 1st, with the publication of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector in the United States and a speech by the Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell.

GBP/USD: First Came the Word. But Will There Be Deeds?

Recent macroeconomic data indicates that the UK's economy is on the mend, contributing to the strengthening of the British pound. Business activity in the country is rebounding, with the Services PMI and Composite PMI indices showing growth, although they remain in contraction territory after three months of decline. The Manufacturing PMI is also below the threshold value of 50.0, indicating contraction/growth, but it rose from 44.8 to 46.7, surpassing forecasts of 45.0. The growth in business activity is supported by a decrease in core inflation. According to the latest CPI data, it decreased from 6.7% to 4.6%, and despite this, the economy managed to avoid a recession, with GDP remaining at 0%.

Against this backdrop, according to several analysts, unlike the Federal Reserve (FRS) and the European Central Bank (ECB), there is a significant likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE). This conviction has been fuelled by recent hawkish comments from the regulator's head, Andrew Bailey, who emphasized that rates should be raised for a longer period, even if it may have a negative impact on the economy.

The Chief Economist of the BoE, Hugh Pill, also stated in an interview with the Financial Times on Friday, November 24, that the Central Bank would continue to combat inflation, and it cannot afford to weaken its tight monetary policy. According to Pill, key indicators, namely inflation in service prices and wage growth, remained persistently high throughout the summer. Therefore, even though "both of these measures have shown a slight – but welcome – sign of coming down, they remain at very high levels."

Such hawkish statements from Bank of England leaders contribute to bullish sentiments for the pound. However, according to economists at Commerzbank, despite Andrew Bailey's efforts to convey a hawkish stance with his comments, it is not necessarily guaranteed that real actions, such as an interest rate hike, will follow. "Even in the case of positive surprises from the real sector of the UK economy, the market always keeps in mind the rather indecisive approach of the Bank of England. In this case, the potential for sterling to rise in the near future will be limited," warns Commerzbank.

Despite Thanksgiving Day in the United States, some preliminary data on the state of the American economy was still released on Friday, November 24. The S&P Global PMI for the services sector increased from 50.6 to 50.8. The composite PMI remained unchanged in November at the previous level of 50.7. However, the manufacturing sector's PMI in the country showed a significant decline – despite the previous value of 50.0 and expectations of 49.8, the actual figure dropped to 49.4, reflecting a slowdown in growth. Against this backdrop, taking advantage of the low-liquidity market, pound bulls pushed the pair higher to a height of 1.2615.

As for technical analysis, over the past week, GBP/USD has surpassed both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (DMA) and even breached the resistance at 1.2589 (50% correction level from the July-October decline), marking the highest level since early September. The week concluded with the pair reaching 1.2604.

Economists at Scotiabank believe that "in the short term, the pound will find support on minor dips (to the 1.2500 area) and looks technically poised for further gains." Regarding the median forecast of analysts in the near future, only 20% supported Scotiabank's projection for pound growth. The majority (60%) took the opposite position, while the remaining analysts maintained a neutral stance. All trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe point north, with 15% of the latter signalling overbought conditions. In the event of a southward movement, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2570, followed by 1.2500-1.2520, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330, 1.2210, and 1.2040-1.2085. In the case of an upward movement, resistance awaits at levels such as 1.2615-1.2635, 1.2690-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, and 1.3140.

One notable event in the upcoming week's calendar is the scheduled speech by the Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday, November 29. As of now, there are no other significant events related to the United Kingdom's economy expected in the coming days.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 25, 2023, 03:12:48 PM
USD/JPY: The Near Future of the Yen Lies in the Hands of the Fed

The momentum gained by USD/JPY after the release of the U.S. inflation report on November 14th proved to be so strong that it continued into the past week. On Tuesday, November 21, the pair found a local bottom at the level of 147.14. Once again, news from the other side of the Pacific, specifically the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, served as a signal for a northward reversal.

As the primary catalyst for the yen revolves around speculations about changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy, markets awaited the release of national inflation data on Friday, November 24th. It was anticipated that the core CPI would increase by 3.0% (year-on-year) compared to the previous value of 2.8%. However, it grew less than expected, reaching 2.9%. The rise in the overall national CPI was 3.3% (year-on-year), exceeding the previous figure of 3.0% but falling short of forecasts at 3.4%. As a result, this had little to no impact on the Japanese yen's exchange rate.

According to economists at Commerzbank, the inflation indicators suggest that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to aim for an exit from its ultra-easy monetary policy in the foreseeable future. The dynamics of USD/JPY in the coming weeks will likely depend almost entirely on the movement of the dollar.

This stance is probably acceptable to the Japanese central bank, reflecting the market's low expectations regarding a tightening of its passive and dovish policy. This sentiment was reaffirmed by Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who addressed Parliament on Wednesday, November 22nd. Kishida stated that the BoJ's monetary policy is not aimed at directing currency rates in a particular direction. From this, it can be inferred that the country's leadership has entrusted the Federal Reserve of the United States with this function.

The closing note of the week for USD/JPY settled at the level of 149.43, maintaining its position above the critical 100- and 200-day SMAs. This suggests that the broader trend still leans towards bullish sentiments, despite recent local victories for bears. Regarding the immediate prospects of the pair, only 20% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, another 20% side with the yen, while the majority (60%) refrain from making any forecasts. As for the technical analysis on the daily chart (D1), the forecast remains uncertain. Among trend indicators, the ratio is evenly split between red and green (50% each). Among oscillators, 60% favour red, 20% favour green, and 20% are neutral-grey. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 149.20, followed by 148.90, 148.10-148.40, 146.85-147.15, 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The nearest resistance is at 149.75, followed by 150.00-150.15, 151.70-151.90, then 152.80-153.15 and 156.25.

There is no planned release of any significant statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy next week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: "Modest" Fine of $7,000,000,000

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/25/NU95W.jpeg)

From the events of the past week, one stands out. It has been reported that the largest crypto exchange, Binance, reached a global settlement with the US Department of Justice, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, related to their investigations into registration issues, compliance, and violations of anti-Russian sanctions.

As part of the agreement, on November 21, 2023, CZ (Changpeng Zhao) stepped down as the CEO of the exchange. Additionally, under the agreement, Binance will pay regulators and law enforcement substantial amounts (around $7 billion) in the form of fines and compensations to settle charges and claims against them. In addition to the financial settlement, Binance has agreed to completely withdraw from the US markets and will "comply with a set of stringent sanction requirements." Furthermore, the exchange will be under a five-year observation by the US Treasury with open access to its accounting books, records, and systems.

The $7 billion payouts are a substantial amount that will significantly impact the company. Can it survive this? After news of these fines, a wave of panic sentiments swept through the market. According to DeFiLlama data, Binance's reserves decreased by $1.5 billion in two days, with an outflow of $710 million during the same period. These are substantial losses. However, looking at history, such withdrawal rates are not extraordinary. In June, after the SEC filed a lawsuit, the outflow exceeded $1 billion in a day, and in January, amid the BUSD stablecoin scandal, the outflow reached a record $4.3 billion for 2023. So, there is likely no catastrophe, and the exchange will face local difficulties.

Representatives of Binance stated that they firmly believe in the crypto industry and the bright future of their company. Many experts view the exchange's agreement with US authorities as a positive event, considering Binance's leading role in the crypto industry. Confirmation of this was the bitcoin dynamics: in the first hours, BTC/USD dropped by 6%, but then rebounded: on Friday, November 24, it even broke through resistance in the $38,000 zone, reaching a high of $38,395.

According to several experts, the fundamental indicators of the leading cryptocurrency have never looked better. For example, 70% of the existing BTC supply has not moved from one wallet to another during this year. "This is a record level in bitcoin's history: such withdrawal rates are extraordinary for a financial asset," summarizes a group of analysts led by Gautam Chhugani.

Glassnode, an analytical company, also notes a consistent outflow of BTC coins from exchanges. The total supply of the leading cryptocurrency is becoming increasingly scarce, and the circulating supply is currently at an all-time low.

In a recent Glassnode report, it is stated that 83.6% of all circulating bitcoins were acquired by current owners at a lower cost than the current value. If this figure surpasses the 90% mark, it could indicate the beginning of the euphoria stage, where almost all market participants have unrealized profits.

According to analysts, statistical data can help determine the current market stage. For instance, when less than 58% of all BTC coins are profitable, the market is in the bottoming formation stage. Once the indicator surpasses the 58% mark, the market transitions into the recovery stage, and above 90%, it enters the euphoria stage.

Glassnode believes that over the last ten months, the market has been in the second of these three stages, recovering from a series of negative events in 2022, such as the collapse of the Luna project and the bankruptcy of the crypto exchange FTX.

So, the chances of entering the New Year 2024 on an upward trajectory are increasing. Positive expectations are reinforced by the upcoming halving in April. It may reduce the monthly selling pressure from miners from $1 billion to $500 million (at the current BTC rate). Additionally, the potential approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the U.S. is a positive catalyst, easing access to cryptocurrency for major investors. According to experts at Bernstein, against this backdrop, by the beginning of 2025, the price of the first cryptocurrency could rise to $150,000.

Can one expect a significant downward correction from bitcoin in the near future? The crypto market is known for its unpredictability and volatility. However, according to renowned analyst Willy Woo, this is unlikely. He examined blockchain data reflecting the average purchase price of BTC by investors, concluding that the primary cryptocurrency is unlikely to drop below $30,000 again.

Woo shared a chart with readers, showing a dense grey band representing the price around which a significant portion of bitcoin's supply fluctuated. According to the expert, this reflects "strong consensus price." Woo claims that since the inception of bitcoin, this band has acted as a reliable price support. The chart demonstrates that such bands formed eight times throughout bitcoin's existence, always supporting its price.

However, it's important to acknowledge that not everyone trusts Woo's calculations. An analyst using the pseudonym TXMC reminded that Woo made a similar forecast in 2021, stating that bitcoin would never drop below $40,000. Yet, the next year saw exactly that happen: on November 20, 2022, BTC/USD reached a minimum in the $15,480 range.

Since that tragic date, bitcoin has appreciated by more than 2.4 times. As of the evening of Friday, November 24, BTC/USD is trading around $37,820. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.44 trillion (compared to $1.38 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen from 63 to 66 points and continues to be in the Greed zone.

As for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), it remains proactive. Following the resolution with Binance, it has now filed charges against the cryptocurrency trading platform Kraken. According to the SEC, the platform operated as an unregistered exchange for securities, broker, dealer, and clearing agency. The SEC lawsuit alleges that since September 2018, Kraken has earned hundreds of millions of dollars by unlawfully facilitating the buying and selling of securities in crypto assets. It remains to be seen how much it will cost Kraken to settle its issues with U.S. authorities.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 29, 2023, 02:16:56 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/29/NP72b.jpeg)

– The share of bitcoins potentially yielding profit has reached 83.7% of the total supply. This is the highest figure since November 2021, according to a report from Bitfinex analysts. Meanwhile, market activity is low. Experts have noted that coin owners are reluctant to sell, and buyers are not actively seeking them. "One reason for this is that the actual size of unrealized profits remains modest," added Bitfinex.
According to analysts, the ratio between short-term and long-term holders of digital gold is shifting in favor of the latter. The active supply of bitcoin has fallen to a five-year minimum: only 30% of coins have moved in the past year. Accordingly, approximately 70% of bitcoins, or "unprecedented" 16.3 million BTC, remained inactive throughout the year. At the same time, 60% of coins have remained motionless for two years. According to Bitfinex specialists, these indicators signify that the market is "in a relatively strong position" as coin owners see a positive return on their investments and are not in a hurry to liquidate assets.

–  As a result of the resolution of the U.S. authorities' claims against Binance and its former CEO Changpeng Zhao, bitcoin is now poised to exceed $40,000 by the end of the year, according to statements from Matrixport. Various estimates suggested that Binance could face fines of up to $10 billion, with allegations of illegal misappropriation of user funds or market manipulation. However, on November 21, an agreement was reached, with the company agreeing to pay $4.3 billion to U.S. authorities. Changpeng Zhao stepped down as CEO and posted a bail of $175 million to remain free. This outcome is considered by Matrixport experts as a "turning point in the crypto industry," indicating that Binance will likely retain its position among the largest crypto exchanges for at least the next two to three years.
In light of this news, Bitcoin initially experienced a temporary correction but then rebounded from $36,000. This confirmed a strong trend, and according to Matrixport experts, a rise above $40,000 in December appears "inevitable." However, they assess the probability of this "inevitable" outcome not at 100%, but at 90%.

– During a speech before students in Frankfurt, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank, shared that despite "numerous warnings," her son invested in cryptocurrencies. However, the investments turned out to be unsuccessful, and he lost approximately 60% of the invested funds. Nevertheless, according to the head of the ECB, the investment amount was not very significant.
"He ignored my recommendations. Of course, it's his right. But when we talked about it next time, he admitted that I was right. I have a very negative attitude towards cryptocurrencies. People can invest in anything and speculate on anything. But they don't need to enable participation in various criminal and sanction-evading schemes and businesses," concluded Ms. Lagarde.

– The TRON (TRX) blockchain, created by the head of the cryptocurrency exchange HTX and Poloniex, Justin Sun, has reportedly surpassed bitcoin in popularity among terrorists, according to experts interviewed by Reuters. They claim that this is due to the higher transaction speed and lower cost of transactions. The TRON company stated that they do not control the users of the blockchain, adding that theoretically, any technology can be used for criminal activities.
Reuters-analysed experts also stated that the dominant asset in the TRON network is the stablecoin USDT from the company Tether. Tether has previously faced accusations of aiding fundraising for terrorists from US legislators. The company has denied these allegations, emphasizing its active participation in freezing suspicious funds, including in collaboration with Israeli authorities. It's worth noting that the National Bureau for Counter Terror Financing in Israel froze 143 wallets on the TRON blockchain from July 2021 to October 2023.
However, journalists point out the difficulties in accurately assessing the amounts collected by terrorists in cryptocurrencies, and it is challenging to determine whether the assets in the frozen wallets were indeed intended for such groups.

– Specialists from the analytical company Santiment have noted an increase in the correlation between the cryptocurrency and stock markets. In November, bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index, on average, grew by 9.2%. The strengthening correlation was observed after bitcoin traded in a narrow price range in late October to early November, showing no significant fluctuations. According to historical data, if bitcoin continues to outpace stocks, it will once again disrupt the correlation, which is considered one of the factors for the formation of a bullish crypto market, according to Santiment.
On November 24, the price of the leading cryptocurrency reached $38,300 for the first time since May of the previous year, prompting bitcoin traders to start taking profits. This is indicated by the slowing growth of the number of wallets with a positive balance. From November 23 to 27, the indicator increased by only 0.25%, reaching 50.91 million wallets.

– The trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael van de Poppe, predicts that a few weeks before the approval of the first spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the coin's price may rise to $48,000. The expert anticipates that the bitcoin ETF will be approved by the SEC in the next five to six weeks. Consequently, the price of BTC could increase in December as investors seek to profit from the potential rally.
However, after approval, the price of the leading cryptocurrency may experience a sharp decline. The potential retracement target is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently around $26,500. Van de Poppe suggests that this downward trend may persist even after the upcoming halving. The analyst suspects that it is during this period that traders will actively accumulate coins, triggering the next bullish rise with a target ranging from $300,000 to $400,000.

– Strategists at Standard Chartered Bank believe that BTC could reach $50,000 this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024. The bank's initial forecast hinted at a potential surge to $100,000 but was later revised upward. The price of $120,000 is nearly three times the current value. The optimism from Standard Chartered's experts is linked to the increased profitability of mining when selling a smaller quantity of tokens to maintain the same cash flow volume, ultimately leading to price growth.

– The term "Bitcoin Santa Rally" is gaining popularity on social media platforms, fuelled by the impressive growth of the leading cryptocurrency by approximately 10% in November and 130% since the beginning of the year. This phenomenon echoes the historical "Santa Claus Rally" in the stock market when stocks surge between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
In the crypto market, a similar rally first occurred in late November 2013 when the price of bitcoin was less than $1,000. Throughout December, the bitcoin price consistently rose, reaching a peak of $1,147 by December 23. The next significant surge happened during the holiday season in 2017. Bitcoin embarked on a steep upward trajectory, surpassing $19,000 by mid-December and touching $20,000 for the first time.
However, in 2021, Santa Claus didn't bring joy to crypto traders; the result was the opposite. On November 10, the asset reached an all-time high, approaching $69,000, but in December, the price was influenced by volatility and low trading volumes during the holiday season. By the end of the year, bitcoin was trading around $46,000.
Naturally, this year, members of the crypto community are hopeful for bitcoin's growth, as indicated by Google Trends data.

– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano (ADA), criticized the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for not classifying bitcoin as a security, thereby granting it "complete freedom of action," unlike other cryptocurrencies. According to Hoskinson, BTC is not as decentralized as the SEC believes: more than 51% of the hashing power can be controlled simply by taking the three largest mining pools to court.
In response, Blockstream CEO Adam Back explained to Hoskinson that the main reason is that bitcoin did not conduct an initial coin offering (ICO). "Bitcoin did not conduct an ICO. Most people thought it had no value. It was mined from scratch, it is decentralized, the project has no CEO. ICOs are what led regulators to demand registration from crypto companies. So ADA, Ethereum, and other crypto assets are considered securities under the Howey Test. And bitcoin is considered a commodity," stated Adam Back.
Hoskinson countered by stating that Cardano also did not conduct an ICO. According to him, the project simply distributed coins, and then thousands of people, who had never met before, began trading ADA on crypto exchanges and using the Cardano blockchain for their projects.

– The National Police Agency of South Korea has issued a warning about an increase in activity from North Korean hackers. Experts noted that the criminals are resorting to new sophisticated schemes, often posing as government officials and well-known journalists.
In 2023, North Korean hacking activity has shown a significant escalation in both scale and aggression. Unlike the previous year, where the primary focus was on the spread of ransomware programs, this year there is a shift towards more aggressive phishing attacks. In 2023, South Korean authorities halted the operations of more than 40 fictitious websites associated with cybercriminals.

– Dan Tapiero, Managing Partner and CEO of 10T Holdings, is confident in the inevitable increase in the value of the world's first cryptocurrency. The businessman believes that bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive means of savings. "There are many things, such as real estate, that people often invest in. Art, paintings... And bitcoin really can become part of such asset lists."
According to Tapiero, the "next bull trend will come in 2025. And we will see bitcoin surpass $100,000." "I think that's a pretty conservative estimate," he added. The expert believes that negative interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds will serve as a special "mega-bull signal" for BTC.

– Former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, intends to withdraw funds invested in U.S. Treasury bonds and put them into cryptocurrency before the "Chinese printing press starts its monetary intervention."
According to his forecast, China will significantly increase its investment volumes in external markets. This monetary and credit expansion, combined with the weakening of the U.S. dollar, has the potential to benefit the cryptocurrency market. "Such a scenario will have a positive impact on the value of many risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. The interchangeable nature of global fiat credit implies that capital from China may permeate adjacent financial markets and contribute to the increase in the value of digital assets such as bitcoin," explains the co-founder of BitMEX.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on November 30, 2023, 11:30:34 AM
NordFX Super Lottery $100,000

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/30/NFzkI.jpeg)

Participation in the NordFX Super Lottery is a great opportunity to improve your financial situation by winning one or even several large cash prizes. The total prize pool is $100,000. 60 prizes of $250 and 15 prizes of $1000 to $5000 will be drawn on January 5.

The organizer of the Super Lottery is NordFX, an international brokerage company with 15 years of experience in financial markets, which is trusted by clients from 188 countries around the world. All information about the terms of the Super Lottery can be found on the broker's official website.

As early as 1748, Benjamin Franklin, whose portrait adorns the $100 bill, formulated one of the main financial laws: Time is Money. So, hurry up and don't waste time: the sooner you participate in the lottery (which is not difficult at all), the more likely you are to win there!
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2023, 12:01:55 PM
November 2023 Results: NordFX's Top 3 Traders Set Records with Profits of $470,000

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/11/30/NFzkI.jpeg)

NordFX Brokerage Company Summarizes Client Trading Performance for November 2023. Additionally, an evaluation was conducted on the social trading services – PAMM and CopyTrading, along with the profits generated by the company's IB partners.

- The client from Western Asia with account number 1691XXX secured the highest profit this month, reaching $351,521. This remarkable achievement was attained through trading in gold (XAU/USD), euro (EUR/USD), and the British pound (GBP/USD).

- Similarly, fellow countryman with account number 1692XXX claimed the second position on the podium of distinction, accruing a profit of $91,650. The same currency pairs – XAU/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, along with USD/JPY, contributed to this impressive outcome.

- The third spot is occupied by the account holder with number 1733XXX from Southeast Asia. Utilizing the favoured NordFX trading instrument – gold (XAU/USD), they achieved a profit of $26,713.

In NordFX's passive investment services, the following situation has developed:

- In the PAMM service, the Trade and Earn account continues to attract attention. It was opened 631 days ago but remained dormant, awakening only in November 2022. Over 13 months, its profitability approached 210% with a relatively small maximum drawdown of less than 17%. Undoubtedly, the manager of this account can take pride in such performance.
   
Two long-standing accounts on the PAMM service's showcase have persevered, previously mentioned in our past reviews – KennyFXPRO-The Multi 3000 EA and TranquilityFX-The Genesis v3. Recall that on November 14, 2022, they suffered significant losses, with the drawdown at that moment approaching 43%. However, PAMM managers decided not to give up, and by November 30, 2023, the profit on the first of these accounts exceeded 118%, and on the second, 78%.
   
- In CopyTrading, noteworthy is the signal yahmat-forex, which, over 160 days, demonstrated a profitability of 190% with a maximum drawdown of 37%. Also catching attention is the startup with the original name $20 - ⟩ $1,000,000. One can reasonably guess that the provider of this signal intends to increase the deposit from $20 to $1 million. Currently, in its 37 days of existence, the profit stands at 101% with a moderate drawdown of less than 18%.
   
Undoubtedly, such profitability appears very attractive and far exceeds the returns on bank deposits. However, subscribers must always remember that past successes do not guarantee the same results in the future. Therefore, as usual, we urge investors to exercise maximum caution when investing their money.

Among the IB partners of the NordFX brokerage company, the top three are as follows:
- The largest commission reward once again was credited to a partner from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX. This time it amounted to $10,525.
- Next is their colleague from South Asia, account number 1675XXX, who earned $6,510 in November.
- Finally, another partner from South Asia, account number 1700XXX, closes the top three leaders, receiving $5,034 in commissions.

***

Attention! On January 5, 2024, just a month away, NordFX will host the New Year draw of its super lottery. A multitude of cash prizes ranging from $250 to $5,000 will be up for grabs among the company's clients.

There's still time to become a participant and have a chance to win one or even several of these prizes. All details are available on the NordFX website.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2023, 12:40:12 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 04 – 08, 2023


EUR/USD: December – A Formidable Month for the Dollar

Who will start loosening the grip on their monetary policies earlier, the Federal Reserve (FRS) or the European Central Bank (ECB)? The discussion on this topic remains active, as clearly seen in the quotes' charts. The statistics from the past week did not allow EUR/USD to solidify above the significant level of 1.1000. It all began on Wednesday, November 29, with the publication of inflation data in Germany. The preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) in annual terms amounted to 3.2%, which is lower than both the forecast of 3.5% and the previous value of 3.8%. In monthly terms, the German CPI went even deeper into the negative territory, reaching -0.4% (against a forecast of -0.2% and 0.0% the previous month).

These data marked the beginning of the euro's retreat. EUR/USD continued its decline after the release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the Eurozone. Eurostat reported that, according to preliminary data, the HICP fell to the lowest level since June 2021, amounting to 2.4% (y/y), which is lower than both the 2.9% in October and the expected 2.7%. The monthly indicator was -0.5%, decreasing from 0.1% in the previous month.

All these data have shown that deflation in the Eurozone significantly outpaces the American one. As a result, many market participants, including strategists at the largest banking group in the Netherlands, ING, have started talking about the imminent victory of the ECB over inflation. They have concluded that the European Central Bank will be the first to ease its monetary policy, including lowering interest rates and engaging in monetary expansion. According to forecasts, this process may begin in April, and with a 50% probability, even a month earlier, in March. The likelihood that the key interest rate will be reduced by 125 basis points (bps) during 2024, from 4.50% to 3.25%, is estimated at 70%. Indirectly, the move towards a more dovish policy was recently confirmed by a member of the ECB's Executive Board and the head of the Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, who spoke about the "unnecessary harm" that can be caused by persistently high-interest rates.

As for the United States, FOMC officials speak not of harm but, on the contrary, of the benefits of high-interest rates. For instance, John C. Williams, the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated that it is appropriate to keep borrowing costs on a plateau for an extended period. According to him, this would allow for a complete restoration of the balance between demand and supply and bring inflation back to 2.0%. Williams predicts that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index will decrease to 2.25% by the end of 2024 and stabilize near the target level only in 2025.

Therefore, it is unlikely that we should expect the hawks of the Federal Reserve to turn into doves in the near future. Especially considering that the U.S. economy allows maintaining such a position: stock indices are rising, and the GDP data published on November 29 showed a growth of 5.2% in Q3, surpassing both market expectations of 5.0% and the previous value of 4.9%.

Given this situation, it's not surprising that EUR/USD experienced a decline.

On Friday afternoon, it reached a local low at the level of 1.0828 and would have continued to decline further if it were not for the head of the Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell spoke at the very end of the workweek and stated that he considers premature the discussion of when the U.S. central bank can begin to ease its monetary policy. He hinted that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged at the current level of 5.50% at the December meeting. Powell also noted that the core inflation in the U.S. is still significantly higher than the target of 2.0%, and the Federal Reserve is ready to continue tightening its policy if necessary. In general, he said the same things as John Williams. However, if the words of the President of the New York Fed strengthened the dollar, somehow similar words from the Fed Chair weakened it: during Powell's speech, the DXY Index lost about 0.12%. Market reactions are truly unpredictable! As a result, the final chord of the week sounded at the level of 1.0882.

What awaits us in December? Following the logic mentioned above, the dollar should continue its advance against the euro. However, a seasonal factor may intervene, indicating a bearish movement for the dollar in December against a range of currencies. According to economists at Societe Generale, the average decline of the Dollar Index (DXY) over the last 10 years in December is 0.8%. Seasonally, the euro (EUR), Swedish krona (SEK), British pound (GBP), and Swiss franc (CHF) tend to rise, while the movements of the Australian dollar (AUD), Canadian dollar (CAD), Japanese yen (JPY), and Mexican peso (MXN) can be considered mixed.

Specialists at the Japanese MUFG Bank also confirm bullish indicators for EUR/USD in the last month of the year. "The seasonal tendency in December," they write, "is quite convincing: over the last 20 years, December has seen EUR/USD rise 14 times, with an impressive average gain of 2.6% over these 14 years. If we exclude December 2008 (+10.1%), the average gain in the other 13 cases was still significant at +2.0%. Moreover, in 8 out of 11 cases when EUR/USD rose in November, it was followed by a rise in December" (and it rose indeed!). "But this does not mean," caution MUFG, "that we can ignore fundamental factors." It is relevant to remind here that based on such factors, the Federal Reserve (FRS) and the European Central Bank (ECB) will make decisions at their meetings on December 13 and 14, respectively.

At the moment, experts' opinions on the near future of EUR/USD are divided as follows: 50% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, 30% sided with the euro, and 20% remained neutral. Regarding technical analysis, 50% of oscillators on the D1 chart are coloured green, 30% are in a neutral grey, and only 20% are red. Interestingly, half of these 20% are already signalling oversold conditions. Among trend indicators, 65% favour the bullish side, while 35% point in the opposite direction.

The nearest support for the pair is located in the area of 1.0830-1.0840, followed by 1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0480-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0900, 1.0965-1.0985, 1.1070-1.1110, 1.1150, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

A substantial flow of data is anticipated from the American labour market in the upcoming week of December 5 to 8. The highlight will be on Friday, December 8, when crucial indicators such as the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm jobs (NFP) will be published. Additionally, on Tuesday, December 5, we will learn about business activity (PMI) in the U.S. service sector. Data on retail sales in the Eurozone will be available on Wednesday, December 6, and the following day, we will find out about GDP. Finally, on Friday, December 8, revised data on consumer inflation (CPI) in Germany will be released.

GBP/USD: Three Reasons in Favor of the Pound

The likelihood that the US Federal Reserve has likely concluded its cycle of monetary restriction and interest rates have plateaued has been mentioned earlier. Similar sentiments were expressed regarding the historical seasonal advantages of the British pound over the dollar in December.

Verbal support for the British currency was provided by the rhetoric of the Bank of England (BoE) leadership, which currently has no plans to adjust its current monetary policy trajectory. As known, this trajectory is aimed at tightening. Deputy Governor of the BoE, Dave Ramsden, stated that monetary policy should continue to be restrictive to curb inflation. A similar hawkish position was taken by BoE Governor Andrew Bailey, who emphasized that rates should rise for longer, even if it negatively affects the economy.

Currently, the key interest rate for the pound is at a 15-year high of 5.25%. Its last increase occurred on August 3, after which the Bank of England took a pause. However, this does not necessarily mean that they won't resume and increase the rate by 25 basis points at their December or January meeting.

Similar hawkish statements from the leaders of the Bank of England contribute to bullish sentiments for the pound. Even despite the dollar's rise in the second half of the past week, GBP/USD couldn't breach the support at 1.2600. According to economists from the Singaporean United Overseas Bank (UOB), as long as this strong level remains unbroken, there is a possibility for the pair to move slightly higher in the next 1-3 weeks before an increased risk of a pullback. UOB believes that, at the moment, the likelihood of the pound rising to the resistance level of 1.2795 is not substantial.

Following Jerome Powell's remarks, GBP/USD settled at the level of 1.2710 at the conclusion of the past week. Regarding its immediate future, 20% are in favour of further ascent, while the majority of surveyed analysts (55%) have taken the opposite position, and the remaining 25% remain neutral. On the D1 chart, all trend indicators and oscillators unanimously point north, with the latter indicating overbought conditions at 15%.

In the event of a southward movement, the pair will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2600-1.2635, followed by 1.2570, 1.2500-1.2520, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330, 1.2210, and 1.2040-1.2085. In case of an upward movement, resistance awaits at levels 1.2735-1.2755, then 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

No significant economic events related to the United Kingdom are anticipated for the upcoming week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 03, 2023, 12:41:49 PM
USD/JPY: Caution, More Caution, and Even More Caution

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/02/Nf4Pf.jpeg)

We mentioned in the previous overview that the dynamics of USD/JPY in the coming weeks would be almost entirely dependent on the dollar's performance. Additionally, its volatility would be influenced by the oversold condition of the yen: in mid-November, the pair reached a peak at 151.90, a level not seen since October 2022, and before that, 33 years ago in 1990. The result of the synergy between these two factors was observed last week. Following the Dollar Index (DXY), the pair initially dropped by 300 points, from 149.67 to 146.67, then rose in two waves to 148.51. On December 1, it responded with a significant red candle to the statement from the head of the Federal Reserve, finishing at 146.79.

The influence of the United States on the dynamics of USD/JPY is consistently evident. However, will the Bank of Japan (BoJ) impact the strength of its national currency? Hopes for this are diminishing. BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura made comments on Thursday, November 30, expressing his opinion on the possibility of transitioning from an ultra-easy monetary policy. He stated that tightening it prematurely is risky, and for now, it is necessary to patiently maintain the current course. As for the timing of when this can be done, according to the official, it is currently challenging to determine. 'We can change our policy when the Japanese economy sees sustainable growth in wages and inflation,' Nakamura explained. 'Now is the time to exercise caution in our policy.'

One might think, was the Bank of Japan not cautious before this? Judging by its monetary policy, BoJ can confidently contend for the title of the 'Most Cautious Central Bank in the World.'.

According to economists at the Singaporean United Overseas Bank (UOB), in the next 1-3 weeks, USD/JPY is likely to trade in a range between 146.65 and 149.30, then start declining. Regarding the median forecast, in the near term, only 20% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, while 60% are in favour of the yen, and 20% have refrained from making any predictions. As for trend indicators on D1, 85% favour the yen, recommending buying the pair in only 15% of cases. All oscillators are in the red, with 100%, and a quarter of them are in the oversold zone. The nearest support level is located in the 146.65 zone, followed by 145.90-146.10, 145.30, 144.45, 143.75-144.05, and 142.20. The closest resistance is at 147.25, then 147.65-147.85, 148.40, 149.20, 149.80-150.00, 150.80, 151.60, 151.90-152.15, 152.80-153.15, and 156.25.

Among the events in the upcoming week's calendar, it is worth noting Tuesday, December 5, when data on consumer inflation in the Tokyo region will be released, and Friday, December 8, when the GDP volume of Japan for Q3 2023 will be announced.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: A Year Between a Bear Past and a Bull Future

December is upon us, making it a fitting time not only to review the week's outcomes but also to assess the entire passing year. Apparently, 2023 has the potential to serve as a transition between the bear 2022 and the bull 2023, supported by an impressive 11% growth in the leading cryptocurrency in November and a staggering 130% increase since the beginning of the year.

The share of potentially profitable bitcoins has reached 83.7% of the total supply, marking the highest level since November 2021. According to analysts at Bitfinex, the balance between short-term and long-term holders of digital gold is tilting in favour of the latter. The active supply of bitcoin has dropped to a five-year low, with only 30% of coins moving over the year. Consequently, approximately 70% of bitcoins, or an "unprecedented" 16.3 million BTC, remained stagnant throughout the year. Moreover, 60% of these coins have been motionless for two years. According to Bitfinex experts, these metrics indicate that the market is in a "relatively strong position" as coin holders are experiencing positive returns on their investments and are not rushing to liquidate assets in anticipation of even greater profits.

Positive sentiments have increased, especially among large investors (those with investments of $1 million or more). Over the first 11 months of 2023, they have increased their investments in crypto funds by 120%, bringing the total to $43.3 billion. Bitcoin remains the leader in this regard, with its volume growing to $32.3 billion, a 140% increase. Among altcoins, Solana has also attracted institutional interest. However, Ethereum had been showing negative dynamics for a while, although it has recently started to recover.

The rise in optimism in the market is attributed to: 1) the resolution of the issues between the U.S. authorities and the crypto exchange Binance, 2) the anticipation of the imminent launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, and 3) the upcoming bitcoin halving in April next year.

Regarding point 1, as a result of a settlement agreement between the U.S. authorities and Binance, bitcoin is now expected to exceed $40,000 by the end of the year, according to Matrixport. Various estimates suggested that Binance could face fines of up to $10 billion and might be accused of unauthorized appropriation of user funds or market manipulation. However, on November 21, an agreement was reached that Binance would pay a $4.3 billion fine, cease operations in the U.S., and its CEO, Changpeng Zhao, stepped down and posted a $175 million bail to remain free. This outcome is considered by Matrixport experts as a 'turning point in the crypto industry,' indicating that Binance will maintain its position among the largest crypto exchanges for at least the next two to three years.

In light of this news, bitcoin initially experienced a temporary correction but then bounced back from $36,000. This confirmed a strong trend, and according to Matrixport experts, a rise above $40,000 in December appears 'inevitable.' However, they assess the probability of this 'inevitable' outcome at 90%, acknowledging that unforeseen events could still impact the situation.

According to some experts, the "peaceful" withdrawal of Binance from the U.S. market should ease tensions and facilitate the approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of applications for the creation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for spot bitcoin. In November, the SEC held a series of meetings with applicants to allow them to edit their submissions in accordance with the regulator's requirements. The presence of this dialogue was viewed as a positive factor. It is not ruled out that by January 10, 2024, the Commission will approve a significant portion, if not all, of the applications for launching bitcoin ETFs. This date marks the deadline for approving the joint application from ARK Invest and 21Shares. If the regulator makes a negative decision, it risks getting involved in legal proceedings again. The SEC has already lost a legal battle with an investment giant like Grayscale, with the court deeming the SEC's actions "arbitrary and capricious." So, is it worth stepping on the same rake again and risking similar humiliations?

Trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, expects the first bitcoin ETFs to be approved by the SEC in the next five to six weeks. Consequently, the price of BTC could rise in December as investors try to profit from the potential rally. The expert forecasts its growth to $48,000. However, after approval, according to Van De Poppe, BTC/USD could sharply decline. The lower target of this potential pullback is the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) line, which is currently around $26,500. This downward trend may continue even after the upcoming halving, Van De Poppe believes. The analyst suspects that it is then that traders will actively accumulate coins, triggering the next bullish rally with a target ranging from $300,000 to $400,000.

The strategists at Standard Chartered believe that BTC could reach $50,000 by the end of this year and $120,000 by the end of 2024. The bank's initial forecast indicated a possible rise to $100,000 but was later increased. The price of $120,000 is three times higher than the current level. This optimism from Standard Chartered experts is linked to the increased profitability of mining when selling a smaller quantity of tokens to maintain the same cash flow volume, leading to price growth.

The Managing Partner and CEO of 10T Holdings, Dan Tapiero, is confident in the inevitable growth of the first cryptocurrency and believes that bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive means of savings. However, in his opinion, the next bullish trend will not occur in 2024 but in 2025. "And we will see bitcoin surpass $100,000," predicts Tapiero, adding that this is a rather conservative estimate. The businessman believes that negative interest rates on US Treasury bonds will be a special "mega-bull signal" for BTC.

(Note that the former CEO of the crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, intends to withdraw the funds he invested in US Treasury bonds and invest them in cryptocurrency in the near future, without waiting until 2025.)

We have repeatedly noted earlier that the leading cryptocurrency has "decoupled" from both stock indices and the dollar exchange rate, disrupting direct and inverse correlations. However, now analysts at the Santiment analytical company are observing an increase in the correlation between the crypto and stock markets. In November, bitcoin, Ethereum, and the S&P 500 index grew on average by 9.2%. The strengthening connection was recorded after bitcoin traded in a narrow price range in late October to early November, showing no significant fluctuations. "If bitcoin continues to grow, surpassing stocks," say the analysts at Santiment, "this will once again disrupt the correlation, which, according to historical data, is one of the factors for the formation of a bullish crypto market.

BTC/USD set a new high for 2023 on Friday, reaching $38,950, aided by the surge in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, mentioned in this review by the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell in his speech. As of the evening of December 1, BTC/USD is trading around $38,765. The overall market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.45 trillion ($1.44 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear and Greed Index rose from 66 to 71 points and still remains in the Greed zone.

So, December has arrived, and many members of the crypto community are once again talking about the "Bitcoin Santa Rally." This phenomenon mirrors the historical "Santa Claus Rally" in the stock market when stocks rise between Thanksgiving and Christmas. On the crypto market, a similar rally first occurred at the end of November 2013 when the price of BTC was less than $1,000. Throughout December, the price of bitcoin steadily rose, reaching a peak of $1,147 by December 23. The next significant surge happened four years later during the holiday season of 2017. Bitcoin embarked on a steep upward trajectory, surpassing $19,000 by mid-December and touching $20,000 for the first time. However, in 2021, Santa Claus didn't bring joy to traders; the result was the opposite. On November 10, the asset reached an all-time high, approaching $69,000, but in December, the price was influenced by volatility and low trading volumes during the holiday days. By the end of the year, bitcoin was trading in the $46,000 range.

Naturally, this year, members of the crypto community are hoping for a convincing rise in digital gold. It remains to be seen whether Santa Claus will fulfil these hopes.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 06, 2023, 03:15:26 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/06/Nb84G.jpeg)

– On the night of December 5 to 6, the flagship cryptocurrency reached a peak of $44,464. The last time BTC traded above $40,000 was in April 2022, before the collapse of the Terra ecosystem triggered a massive crypto market downturn. The current positive sentiments in the market are linked to the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart stated that the approval of these fund launches is likely to occur between January 5 and 10. Among other reasons for the rise in BTC are the increasing network hash rate and investor optimism regarding the recovery of the U.S. economy. Investor hopes are also fuelled by upcoming changes in crypto industry regulations.

– Bitcoin's price is expected to surpass the $100,000 level even before the upcoming halving in April 2024, according to Blockstream CEO Adam Back. The cryptocurrency industry veteran noted that his forecast does not take into account a potential bullish impulse in the event of the SEC approving spot Bitcoin ETFs. Regarding the long-term movement of digital gold quotes, the entrepreneur agreed with the opinion of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, who predicts a range of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.
For reference: Adam Back is a British businessman, a cryptography expert, and a cypherpunk. It is known that Back corresponded with Satoshi Nakamoto, and a reference to his publication is included in the description of the bitcoin system. Adam Back, who had not previously made public price forecasts for BTC, garnered significant attention from many members of the crypto community due to these statements.

– Ledger's CEO Pascal Gauthier, Lightspark's Chief Marcus David, and CoinDCX's top executive Vijay Ayyar also anticipate the bitcoin price to reach $100,000 in 2024. They shared this outlook in an interview with CNBC. "It seems that 2023 was a year of preparation for the upcoming growth. The sentiments towards 2024 and 2025 are very promising," stated Pascal Gauthier.
"A number of market participants expect bullish growth sometime after the halving, but considering the news about ETFs, we could very well start seeing growth before that," believes Vijay Ayyar. However, in his opinion, a "complete rejection of ETF could disrupt this process," and this is something that should always be kept in mind.

– Cardano's leader, Charles Hoskinson, ridiculed CoinDesk's annual list of "Most Influential Personalities in the World of Cryptocurrency." According to Hoskinson's calculations, "appearing on Coindesk's most influential list carries an 18 percent chance of a prison sentence." Since Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has topped this list four times, he has a very high chance of ending up behind bars.
Previously, leaders of crypto projects who now face legal issues were included in this prestigious list. This includes the founder of the collapsed Terra project, Do Kwon, and the former CEO of the bankrupt crypto exchange FTX, Sam Bankman-Fried. According to observations by Hoskinson and other prominent figures who appeared on the CoinDesk list multiple times, they have encountered legal problems.
Some members of the crypto community responded to Cardano's leader, suggesting that he might be envied for not being on this list. It's worth noting that last year, Hoskinson expressed displeasure with CoinDesk for not including him in the top 100 most influential figures in the cryptocurrency industry and for not mentioning him in surveys over the eight years.

– Jim Lee, Chief of Internal Revenue Service, Criminal Investigation (IRS), has stated that investigations related to cryptocurrency occupy more than 50% of the agency's working hours. While almost 90% of cases were related to money laundering three years ago, last year, over half of various tax violations were related to failure to report income from capital gains in cryptocurrency or mining, as well as concealing ownership of crypto assets.
"The desire to evade cryptocurrency taxes spans a wide range of taxpayers, from individuals to various levels of corporate institutions intentionally not disclosing their cryptocurrency income. Therefore, the IRS Criminal Investigation Division is forced to initiate an increasing number of cases of tax crimes involving crypto assets every year," lamented the official.
Jim Lee reminded that cryptocurrency is subject to taxation, and failure to pay or report accurate information about crypto income to the authorities can result in both penalty sanctions and imprisonment for up to five years.

– According to the well-known bitcoin maximalist Max Keiser, bitcoin may soon surpass the $150,000 mark and continue to rise. Keiser shared that, according to unconfirmed rumours, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Qatar is preparing to enter the crypto market with massive investments, intending to allocate up to $500 billion into the leading cryptocurrency. "This will be a seismic shift in the cryptocurrency landscape," believes Keiser.
He noted that, in his observations, many major financial institutions such as BlackRock, Fidelity, Ameritrade, Bakkt, JP Morgan, and others are gearing up to launch crypto products. These products could potentially encourage institutional investors, including hedge funds, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, to invest in digital assets.

– Not all influencers are confident in the optimistic prospects of BTC's value growth and strongly recommend exercising maximum caution when it comes to cryptocurrency investments. For instance, one of the prominent public crypto sceptics and advocate for physical gold, Peter Schiff, is certain that the speculative frenzy surrounding bitcoin ETFs will soon come to an end, and the collapse of bitcoin will be more impressive than its recent rallies.

– Renowned analyst Ali Martinez believes that if Ethereum closes above $2,150 for the week, this altcoin could pave the way for an upward movement with a target level of $2,600, and possibly even up to $3,500. These targets are determined by Martinez based on the analysis of graphic patterns.
Martinez also notes that approximately 5.85 million crypto wallets hold 43.8 million ETH acquired at prices ranging from $1,900 to $2,100. Therefore, this range could become a "significant support level for years to come."

– Military forces should prioritize the study of the underlying algorithm of bitcoin, Proof-of-Work (PoW), to ensure the defense capability of the country, according to U.S. Space Force Major and author of the book "Softwar," Jason Lowery. In an open letter to the Defense Innovation Board of the U.S. Department of Defense, he highlighted that the issue holds "national strategic significance." According to him, the blockchain of the first cryptocurrency is not only a "monetary system" but also provides the foundation for securing "all forms of data, messages, or command signals."

– Bloomberg Intelligence's Senior Macro Strategist, Mike McGlone, asserts that currently, bitcoin exhibits much greater strength than gold. The expert noted that on December 4th, the price of gold reached a record high, fuelled by investors' expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Subsequently, gold declined by 5.1%, while bitcoin continued to rise, surpassing $44,000.
However, the analyst cautioned that bitcoin's volatility may hinder its ability to trade reliably, similar to physical gold, during periods of "risk aversion." According to McGlone, for bitcoin to compete with the precious metal as an alternative asset, it must establish key reliability indicators. These include achieving a negative correlation of BTC with the stock market and attaining a high deficit during periods of money supply growth.

– Alejandro Cao de Benos was detained at the Madrid railway station. According to the U.S. Department of Justice, in April 2019, Benos demonstrated to North Korean officials how a state could use cutting-edge technologies for money laundering and evading international sanctions. Before his arrest, the Spaniard had been on the Federal Bureau of Investigation's (FBI) most-wanted list for over a year, hiding in Barcelona under a fictitious name.
As a supporter of the North Korean regime, in 2000, Benos founded the Korea Friendship Association and appeared in documentaries about North Korea. The U.S. Department of Justice claims that Benos began planning a blockchain conference in North Korea in 2018. Among its participants was former Ethereum developer Virgil Griffith, who was also arrested for involvement in the event. In 2022, Griffith was sentenced to five years in prison.
On Friday, December 1, Benos appeared before the High Court of Spain. He refuted the charges brought by the U.S. prosecution, deeming them false. The man faces up to 20 years of imprisonment in a U.S. prison, but extradition proceedings have not yet begun.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 10, 2023, 06:19:16 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 11 – 15, 2023


EUR/USD: Continuation of the Rate War

The labour market and inflation: these are the factors that Central Banks closely monitor when making decisions regarding monetary policy and interest rates. It is sufficient to recall the significant shift that occurred after the publication of October's inflation data in the United States. In November, the dollar weakened significantly, and the classical portfolio of stocks and bonds yielded the highest profit in 30 years! EUR/USD, starting at 1.0516, reached a monthly peak on November 29 at 1.1016.

Regarding the labour market, crucial indicators were released on Friday, December 8, including the unemployment rate and the number of new non-farm payrolls (NFP) in the United States. The first indicator revealed a decline in unemployment: in November, the rate dropped to 3.7%, surpassing both the forecast and the previous value of 3.9%. The second indicator showed an increase in the number of new jobs: 199K were created in a month, surpassing both the October figure of 150K and the market expectations of 180K. It cannot be said that such statistics significantly supported the dollar. However, at the very least, it did not harm it.

Two to three months ago, the market's reaction to such data would have been more intense, as there were still hopes for further increases in the Federal Reserve's interest rates in 2023. Now, those expectations are nearly reduced to zero. The discussions revolve not around how the key rate will rise, but rather how long it will be maintained at the current level of 5.50% and how actively the regulator will reduce it.

An economist survey conducted by Reuters revealed that just over half of the respondents (52 out of 102) believe that the rate will remain unchanged at least until July. The remaining 50 respondents expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting before that. 72 out of 100 respondents believe that by 2024, the rate will gradually be reduced by a maximum of 100 basis points (bps), possibly even less. Only 5 experts still hold hope for further rate increases, even if it's just by 25 bps. It's worth noting that Reuters' survey results do not align with the immediate market expectations, which forecast five rate cuts of 25 bps each starting from March.

A Citi economist, as part of the Reuters survey, noted that an increase in core inflation would disrupt the narrative of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates and delay this process. The upcoming inflation data in the United States will be available on Tuesday, December 12, and Wednesday, December 13, with the release of the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), respectively. Following this, on Wednesday, we can expect the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve, where decisions on interest rates will be made. Market participants will undoubtedly focus on the economic forecasts presented by the FOMC and the comments from the leadership of the Federal Reserve.

However, it's not only the Federal Reserve that influences the EUR/USD pair; the European Central Bank (ECB) also plays a significant role, and its meeting is scheduled for next week on Thursday, December 14. Currently, the base rate for the euro stands at 4.50%. Many market participants believe it is too high and could push the fragile economy of the region into recession.

Deflation in the Eurozone is considerably outpacing that in the United States. Last week, Eurostat reported that, according to preliminary data, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) fell to its lowest level since June 2021, at 2.4% (y/y), which is lower than both October's 2.9% and the expected 2.7%. This is very close to the target level of 2.0%. Hence, to support the economy, the ECB may soon initiate the process of easing its monetary policy.

Market forecasts suggest that the first cut in the key rate could occur in April, with a 50% probability even a month earlier in March. There is a 70% probability that by 2024, the rate will be reduced by 125 bps. However, the consensus estimate among Reuters experts is more conservative, anticipating a decrease of only 100 bps.

So, the rate war between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will continue. While the one who previously prevailed was the one with faster advancing rates, now the advantage will be with the one whose retreat occurs more slowly. It is entirely possible that investors will receive some information regarding the regulators' plans after their meetings next week.

As for the past week, EUR/USD concluded at the level of 1.0760. Currently, expert opinions regarding the pair's immediate future are divided as follows: 75% voted for the strengthening of the dollar, while 25% sided with the euro. Among trend indicators on D1, the distribution is the same as with experts: 75% for the dollar and 25% for the euro. For oscillators, 75% favor the red side (with a quarter of them in the overbought zone), while 10% point in the opposite direction, and 15% remain neutral.

The nearest support for the pair is situated around 1.0725-1.0740, followed by 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0800-1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0965-1.0985, 1.1020, 1.1070-1.1110, 1.1150, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

In addition to the events mentioned earlier, the economic calendar highlights the release of the summary data on the U.S. retail market on Thursday, December 14th. On the same day, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits will be traditionally published, and on December 15th, the preliminary values of the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the manufacturing and services sectors of the United States will be released. Additionally, on Friday, preliminary data on business activity in Germany and the Eurozone as a whole will be disclosed.

GBP/USD: Should We Expect a Surprise from the BoE?

The Bank of England (BoE) conducted its quarterly survey on December 8. It turns out that inflation expectations for the UK population in November 2024 are 3.3%, which is lower than the previous quarter's figure of 3.6%. Meanwhile, 35% of the country's population believes that they would personally benefit from a decrease in interest rates. In other words, the majority (65%) is not concerned about this indicator. However, it is a matter of concern for market participants.

The BoE meeting will also take place next week, on Thursday, December 14, shortly before the ECB meeting. What will be the decision on the interest rate? Lately, the hawkish rhetoric of the Bank of England's leadership has verbally supported the British currency. For instance, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently stated that rates should rise for longer, even if it may negatively impact the economy. However, experts predict that the regulator will likely maintain the status quo at the upcoming meeting, keeping the key interest rate at 5.25%, which is already the highest level in the last 15 years.

Expectations for the rate in 2024 imply an 80 bps decrease to 4.45%. If the Federal Reserve lowers its rate to 4.25%, it would give the pound some hope for strengthening. However, this is a matter of the relatively distant future. Last week, the dollar actively recouped November losses, resulting in the GBP/USD pair finishing the five-day period at 1.2548.

Speaking of its immediate future, 30% voted for the pair's rise, another 30% for its fall, and 40% remained indifferent. Among trend indicators on D1, 60% point north, while 40% point south. Among oscillators, only 15% are bullish, 50% bearish, and the remaining 35% remain neutral. In the event of the pair moving south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2500-1.2520, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085, and 1.2035. In case of an upward movement, the pair will face resistance at levels 1.2575, then 1.2600-1.2625, 1.2695-1.2735, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

Among the important events in the upcoming week, in addition to the Bank of England meeting, the release of a comprehensive set of data from the United Kingdom labour market is scheduled for Tuesday, December 12. Additionally, the country's GDP figures will be published on Wednesday, December 13.

USD/JPY: Is the Bank of Japan Losing Caution?

The strengthening of the Japanese currency has taken on a sustained character since the beginning of November. This occurred a couple of weeks after the peak in yields of U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds when the markets were convinced that their decline had become a trend. It's worth noting that there is traditionally an inverse correlation between these securities and the yen. If Treasury yields rise, the yen weakens against the dollar. Conversely, if bond yields fall, the yen strengthens its positions.

A significant moment for the Japanese currency was on Thursday, December 7, when it strengthened across the market spectrum, gaining approximately 225 points against the U.S. dollar and reaching a three-month peak. USD/JPY recorded its minimum at that moment at the level of 141.62.

The main reason for the yen's advance has been the growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will finally abandon its negative interest rate policy, and this is expected to happen sooner than anticipated. Rumours suggest that regional banks in the country are pressuring the regulator, advocating for a departure from the yield curve control policy.

As if to confirm these rumours, the BoJ conducted a special survey of market participants to discuss the consequences of abandoning the ultra-loose monetary policy and the side effects of such a move. Additionally, the visit of the BoJ Governor, Kadsuo Ueda, to the office of Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, added fuel to the fire.

The yen is also benefiting from market confidence that the key interest rates of the Federal Reserve (FRS) and the European Central Bank (ECB) have reached a plateau, and further reductions are the only expectation. As a result of such a divergence, an accelerated narrowing of yield spreads between Japanese government bonds on one side and similar securities from the US and Eurozone on the other can be predicted. This is expected to redirect capital flows into the yen.

Furthermore, the Japanese currency might have been supported by the slowdown in the growth of stock markets over the past three weeks. The yen is often used as a funding currency for purchasing risky assets. Therefore, profit-taking on stock indices such as S&P500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and others has additionally pushed USD/JPY lower.

Graphical analysis indicates that in October 2022 and November 2023, the pair formed a double top, reaching a peak at 151.9. Therefore, from this perspective, its retracement downward is quite logical. However, some experts believe that a definitive reversal on the daily timeframe (D1) can only be discussed after it breaks through support in the 142.50 zone. However, at the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, December 8th, thanks to strong US labor market data, USD/JPY rebounded from a local low, moved upward, and concluded at 144.93.

In the immediate future, 45% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the yen, 30% side with the dollar, and 25% remain neutral. As for indicators on D1, the advantage is overwhelmingly in favour of the red colour. 85% of trend indicators are coloured red, 75% of oscillators are in the red, and only 25% are in the green.

The nearest support level is located in the 143.75-144.05 zone, followed by 141.60-142.20, 140.60, 138.75-139.05, 137.25-137.50, 135.90, 134.35, and 131.25. Resistances are positioned at the following levels and zones: 145.30, 146.55-146.90, 147.65-147.85, 148.40, 149.20, 149.80-150.00, 150.80, 151.60, and 151.90-152.15.

Except for the release of the Tankan Large Manufacturers' Index on December 13 for Q4, there is no anticipation of other significant macroeconomic statistics regarding the state of the Japanese economy.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Rational Growth or Speculative Frenzy?

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Late in the evening on December 8, the flagship cryptocurrency reached a peak of $44,694. The last time BTC traded above $40,000 was in April 2022, before the Terra ecosystem crash triggered a massive crypto market collapse. Among the reasons for the sharp rise in BTC, growing network hash rate, investor optimism about the U.S. economic recovery, and expectations of a Federal Reserve policy easing are mentioned. However, the main reason for the current bull rally is undoubtedly the potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S.

Twelve companies have submitted applications to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to create ETFs, collectively managing over $20 trillion in assets. For comparison, the entire market capitalization of bitcoin is $0.85 trillion. These companies will not only offer existing clients the opportunity to diversify their assets through cryptocurrency investments but also attract new investors, significantly boosting BTC capitalization. Franklin Templeton CEO Jenny Johnson, overseeing $1.4 trillion in assets, recently explained the increased institutional interest, stating, "The demand for bitcoin is evident, and a spot ETF is the best way to access it." Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart believes that the approval of these fund launches is 90% likely to occur from January 5 to 10.

According to Bitfinex experts, the current active supply of bitcoin has dropped to a five-year low: only 30% of the coins have moved in the past year. Consequently, approximately 70% of bitcoins, or "unprecedented" 16.3 million BTC, remained dormant over the year. At the same time, 60% of the coins have been in cold wallets for two years. Simultaneously, as noted by Glassnode, the average deposit amount on cryptocurrency exchanges has approached absolute highs, reaching $29,000. Considering that the number of transactions is continuously decreasing, this indicates the dominance of large investors.

Alongside the bitcoin rally, stock prices of related companies have also surged. In particular, shares of Coinbase, MicroStrategy, miners Riot Platforms, Marathon Digital, and others have seen an increase.

Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, Mike McGlone, believes that bitcoin is currently demonstrating much greater strength than gold. He noted that on December 4, the price of gold reached a record high, after which it decreased by 5.1%, while bitcoin continued to rise, surpassing $44,000. However, the analyst warned that bitcoin's volatility could hinder it from being traded as reliably as physical gold during "risk-off" periods. According to McGlone, for bitcoin to compete with precious metals as an alternative asset, it must establish key reliability indicators. This includes a negative correlation of BTC with the stock market and achieving a high deficit during periods of monetary expansion.

McGlone's warning pales in comparison to the forecast of Peter Schiff, President of the brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital. This well-known crypto sceptic and advocate for physical gold is confident that the speculative frenzy around BTC-ETF will soon come to an end. "This could be the swan song... The collapse of Bitcoin will be more impressive than its rally," he warns investors.

Former SEC official John Reed Stark echoes his sentiments. "Cryptocurrency prices are rising for two reasons," he explains. "First, due to regulatory gaps and possible market manipulation; second, due to the possibility of selling inflated, overvalued cryptocurrency to an even bigger fool [...] This also applies to speculation about a 90% probability of approving spot ETFs."

In the interest of fairness, it should be noted that the current surge is not solely the fault of spot BTC-ETFs. The excitement around them gradually started building up since late June when the first applications were submitted to the SEC. Bitcoin, on the other hand, began its upward movement from early January, growing more than 2.6 times during this period.

Several experts point out that the current situation remarkably mirrors previous BTC/USD cycles. Currently, the drawdown from the all-time high (ATH) is 37%, in the previous cycle for the same elapsed time, it was 39%, and in the 2013-17 cycle, it was 42%. If we measure from local bottoms instead of peaks, a similar pattern emerges. (The first rallies are an exception, as Newbie trader Bitcoin grew significantly faster in the nascent market.)

According to Blockstream CEO Adam Back, the price of bitcoin will surpass the $100,000 level even before the upcoming halving in April 2024. The industry veteran noted that his forecast doesn't take into account a potential bullish impulse in the event of SEC approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. Regarding the long-term movement of digital gold quotes, the entrepreneur agreed with the opinion of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, forecasting a range of $750,000 to $1 million by 2026.

For reference: Adam Back is a British businessman, a cryptography expert, and a cypherpunk. It is known that Back corresponded with Satoshi Nakamoto, and a reference to his publication is included in the description of the bitcoin system. Previously, Adam Back did not make public price forecasts for BTC, so many members of the crypto community paid close attention to his words.

The CEO of Ledger, Pascal Gauthier, the head of Lightspark, David Marcus, and the top manager of the CoinDCX exchange, Vijay Ayyar, also anticipate the bitcoin exchange rate to reach $100,000 in 2024. They shared this information in an interview with CNBC. "It seems that 2023 was a year of preparation for the upcoming growth. Sentiments regarding 2024 and 2025 are very encouraging," said Pascal Gauthier. "Some market participants expect a bullish trend sometime after the halving, but considering the news about ETFs, we could very well start the rise before that," believes Vijay Ayyar. However, unlike Adam Back, in his opinion, "a complete rejection of ETFs could disrupt this process."

Renowned bitcoin maximalist, television host, and former trader Max Keiser shared unconfirmed rumors that the sovereign wealth fund of Qatar is preparing to enter the crypto market with massive investments and plans to allocate up to $500 billion in the leading cryptocurrency. "This will be a seismic shift in the cryptocurrency landscape, allowing bitcoin to potentially surpass the $150,000 mark in the near future and go even further," stated Keiser.

Unlike the television host, we will share not rumors but absolutely accurate facts. The first fact is that as of the review writing on the evening of December 8, BTC/USD is trading around $44,545. The second fact is that the total market capitalization of the crypto market is $1.64 trillion ($1.45 trillion a week ago). And finally, the third fact: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has risen from 71 to 72 points and continues to be in the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 13, 2023, 03:53:55 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– On the morning of December 11, bitcoin fell sharply to $40,145. This abrupt decline lasted no more than five minutes. Multiple theories explain this event. One suggests that strong U.S. job market data released on December 8 triggered the drop. Alternatively, it could have been a result of someone's nerves giving way, a technical glitch, or a trading error in transaction size by a platform, trading robot, or trader, which led to cascade stop-loss execution in futures trading. Coinglass data indicates that over 24 hours, long positions amounting to more than $400 million were liquidated, including $85.5 million in bitcoin.
Since mid-August, the growth has been about 85%, and more than 160% since the start of the year. Thus, some analysts believe that a major player might have decided to secure profits ahead of the year's end. Two days before this event, the head of DecenTrader, known as FibFilb, warned, "We have grown significantly this year, and a correction is expected. […] It's been overdue," he declared on December 9.

– Trader and analyst Michael Van De Poppe, founder of Eight, encouraged the community not to worry, noting that corrections, particularly deep ones, are common in the illiquid altcoin market. After recent events, he updated his bitcoin forecast, identifying the key support zone at $36,500-$38,000. He believes bitcoin's momentum is waning and anticipates Ethereum will outperform in the upcoming quarter.
Crypto expert William Clemente also isn't concerned about the bitcoin price drop, viewing it as inevitable. He argues that such corrections set the stage for the next bullish trend by eliminating overleveraged long positions.

– EQI Bank's director, Eli Taranto, agrees with Van De Poppe's prediction and also foresees a decline in bitcoin's value. He noted that as traders secure profits and await decisions on ETF applications, bitcoin's price will continue to fluctuate, subject to the butterfly effect, where minor influences can have significant and unpredictable consequences. Taranto specifically suggested a potential fall in BTC's price to $39,000.

– In early December, El Salvador launched a program offering residency and a chance for citizenship for a $1 million investment via bitcoin or USDT. The "Salvadoran Freedom Visa," in partnership with Tether, is limited to 1,000 participants. If fully subscribed, it will bring $1 billion into the country, with plans to expand the program further.
El Salvador's offer is notably more expensive than similar programs in nearby Caribbean countries like Antigua, Barbuda, Dominica, and Saint Lucia, which start at $100,000. Alistair Milne, founder of Altana Digital Currency hedge fund, criticized the program as uncompetitive, highlighting that some EU countries offer citizenship for less, like Malta's €750,000 (~$810,000) option.
However, early interest is evident, as 153 individuals have already applied for the Salvadoran program despite Milne's scepticism.

– CryptoQuant experts suggest the possibility of bitcoin breaking the $50,000 mark in early 2024, as reported by The Block. This forecast is based on analysing the activity of digital gold holders and includes transaction volume dynamics, market capitalization, and Metcalfe's law in the context of cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin could aim for the [$50,000-$53,000] range," the experts noted. However, CryptoQuant believes the market is nearing an "overheated bullish phase," historically followed by pauses and corrections. They highlighted that over 88% of coin supply is "in profit," indicating potential seller pressure and likely short-term corrections, often aligning with local peaks historically.

– The ongoing discussion revolves around a law proposed by U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren to tighten control over cryptocurrency transactions. In December 2022, Warren suggested equating crypto companies with financial institutions regulated under the Bank Secrecy Act, requiring digital asset entities to adhere to the same requirements as banks. Her drafted "Digital Asset Anti-Money Laundering Act" mandates customer identification for crypto platforms. However, Alex Thorn of Galaxy Research argues this is impractical for decentralized platforms lacking user verification capabilities, potentially leading to an effective ban on bitcoin in the U.S. Neeraj Agrawal, CEO of Coin Center, criticizes the bill as an attack on technological progress and privacy, urging it not to proceed in the Senate. Many experts believe the bill has little chance of passing; during her 11-year career, only a small fraction of Warren's 330 drafted bills have been enacted, mostly as parts of other laws, with only one passing unchanged – a minor law concerning flag display rules on U.S. federal property.

¬– The governments of the U.S., South Korea, and Japan have started developing joint measures to combat North Korean hackers who attack cryptocurrency projects. These hackers use the stolen funds to finance weapons of mass destruction programs, including nuclear bombs and ballistic missiles, with damages amounting to billions of dollars. The largest incident in the industry's history was the $625 million hack of the Ronin sidechain of Axie Infinity by the Lazarus group. Additionally, the U.S. is investigating cryptocurrency use by terrorists, with calls in the Senate to hold companies like Binance and Tether accountable for facilitating transfers to illegal groups. Subsequently, Tether voluntarily froze all wallets on the sanction list.

– The $4.3 billion fine did not resolve Binance's issues. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to accuse Binance of illegal securities trading and other violations. U.S. Department of Justice officials intend to thoroughly scrutinize the trading platform's activities for compliance with legal norms. Binance is required to grant continuous access to its documents and records, including employee, agent, intermediary, consultant, partner, contractor, and trader information, to the Department of Justice, Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and other financial regulators and law enforcement agencies. John Reed Stark, former head of the SEC, mockingly referred to this scrutiny as a "financial colonoscopy."

– Goldman Sachs investment banking experts released a report on the global economy, including the cryptocurrency market. They predict bitcoin prices may soon rise, driven by anticipated approvals of spot BTC-ETFs, the upcoming halving of mining rewards, and falling yields of U.S. 10-year treasury bonds. Importantly, in 2024, when the Federal Reserve begins a cycle of lowering interest rates, bitcoin could receive an additional bullish boost. The analysts explain that lower interest rates make borrowing cheaper, thereby encouraging risk-taking in both the economy and financial markets, including in the cryptocurrency sector. This outlook contrasts with the scenario of rapid rate increases seen in 2022.

– Analyst using the pseudonym Doctor Profit has thoroughly analysed bitcoin's growth cycles. In his view, digital gold goes through five key phases that illustrate the overall dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Doctor Profit believes that the foundation of the new bull market was laid in the price range of $16,000 to $25,000. According to the analyst, at this stage, investor sentiment is changing, laying the groundwork for an upcoming upward trend, and the market is gradually preparing for dynamic changes.
The next phase covers the range from $25,000 to $38,500: this marks a period of market recovery. Bitcoin holders' activity and optimism are on the rise, paving the way for subsequent stages. As the market gains momentum, BTC enters the third phase, with its price fluctuating between $38,500 and $48,000. This trend is significant in shaping expectations for the future, as investors seek to capitalize on dynamic price changes, and the crypto market enters a period of increased activity.
According to Doctor Profit's analysis, the fourth, "golden" phase will commence within the price range of $48,000 to $69,000. It is at this stage that the market surges to its peak values, and investor euphoria reaches its zenith. Finally, the fifth phase arrives. The peak of the previous bull market, around $69,000, heralds the beginning of bitcoin's super-cycle, during which the price of the leading cryptocurrency will reach historic highs.
However, despite all the optimism, Doctor Profit cautions that before transitioning to the next phase, a significant correction of 20-30% awaits the leading cryptocurrency.

– Thirteen years ago, on December 12, 2010, the creator of the first cryptocurrency under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto published his final post on the forum before disappearing from the public eye. The message gave no hint of the departure of this enigmatic figure (or figures). It contained a description of an update and code for elements of Denial-of-Service (DoS) control in protocol version 0.3.19. This was a time when digital gold was trading at $0.20, and as Satoshi himself and other users noted, the network "was not at all resistant to DoS attacks."
In the time leading up to his disappearance, Satoshi faced disagreements within the developer community, which escalated from forum discussions. He was often criticized for exerting excessive control over the project and making unilateral decisions. Apparently, the founder of the blockchain had planned to leave the team in advance. Therefore, before disappearing, he handed control of the protocol over to the community, with developer Gavin Andresen at the helm. (For reference: Gavin Andresen is currently the Chief Scientist of the Bitcoin Foundation. He has access to an alert key that allows him to broadcast messages about critical network issues to all clients.)
"Satoshi's contribution to decentralization and his fight against financial dictatorship are more than just a technological marvel. It is a movement for economic freedom and sovereignty. His disappearance is not just an act of self-preservation but also a reminder that not everything in life revolves around personal fame," wrote one of the users on the BitcoinTalk forum, remembering the last post of the creator of the first cryptocurrency.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 16, 2023, 12:14:39 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for December 18 – 22, 2023


EUR/USD: Dovish Fed Reversal

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/16/Er9I3.jpeg)

The fate of EUR/USD was determined by two events last week: the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve and the meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB), which took place a day later. As a result, the euro emerged victorious: for the first time since November 29, the pair rose above 1.1000.

The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. Meanwhile, the regulator's leadership acknowledged that it is discussing easing its monetary policy. The FOMC's forecast for the foreseeable future turned out to be significantly lower than market expectations. It is planned that by the end of 2024, the rate will be reduced at least three times: to 4.6% (instead of the expected 5.1%), and by the end of 2025, there are plans for four more stages of reduction, ultimately bringing the cost of borrowing down to 3.6% (expectations were 3.9%). In a three-year perspective, the rate will drop to 2.9%, after which in 2027 it will be 2.0-2.25%, while inflation will stabilize at the target level of 2.0%. Following the meeting, the market expects the Fed to take its first step towards easing as early as March. According to the FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of this scenario is currently estimated at 70%.

In addition to forecasts of a sharper rate cut, additional pressure on the dollar continues to be exerted by the declining yields of Treasuries, which also indicates an imminent change in the direction of monetary policy in the USA. Another confirmation of the dovish pivot was the reaction of the stock markets. Lower rates are good news for stocks. They lead to cheaper financing, and easier economic conditions stimulate domestic demand. As a result, last week the stock market indices S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq soared again.

It is known that ECB President Christine Lagarde was previously involved in synchronized swimming. This time, she acted in sync with the Fed: the pan-European regulator also left the interest rate unchanged, at the previous level of 4.50%. However, the ECB expects the Eurozone's GDP to grow by only 0.6% in 2023, compared to the previously forecasted 0.7%, and by 0.8% in 2024 instead of 1.0%. Inflation in 2024 is forecasted at 5.4%, in 2024 at 2.7%, and in 2025 it is expected to almost reach the target mark of 2.1% (two years earlier than in the US).

The desynchronization with the Fed occurred following the Governing Council's meeting. In their comments, the ECB leadership did not mention the timing of the start of rate cuts. Moreover, it was stated that the European Central Bank's goal is to suppress inflation, not to avoid a recession, so borrowing costs will be kept at peak values as long as necessary. This stance benefited the pan-European currency and strengthened the euro relative to the dollar.

Given the Fed's dovish rhetoric and the ECB's moderately hawkish stance, EUR/USD may retain potential for further growth. It's worth noting that this pivot by the Fed surprised not only the markets. According to an insider report from Financial Times, Jerome Powell's comments following the FOMC meeting also caught the ECB Governing Council off guard. As a result, during her speech, Madame Lagarde threw several stones into the garden of her American colleague.

Currently, it appears that the Fed will lead in easing monetary policy. If the market does not receive a contrary signal, the dollar will remain under pressure. However, it's important to consider that the reality of 2024 may not necessarily align with statements made in December 2023. Objectively, the ECB has significantly more reasons for loosening its financial grip. The European economy is poorly adapted to high rates, it appears weaker than the American economy, its GDP volume has already been revised downward, and the reduction in inflation in the Eurozone is occurring much more rapidly than in the USA. Based on this, economists from Fidelity International, JPMorgan, and HSBC do not rule out that everything may change, and other regulators such as the ECB and the Bank of England may be the first to embark on a path of easing. However, we will not receive signals about this today or tomorrow, but only in the next year.

Regarding the past week, after the release of disappointing business activity data (PMI) in Europe on December 15th and mixed results in the US, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0894.

According to economists from MUFG Bank, a sharp further rise in EUR/USD is on shaky ground. "The situation in the Eurozone and globally does not seem favourable for a further sustainable rally in EUR/USD," they write. "Fundamental factors as a driving force over the next few weeks during the Christmas and New Year period are never reliable, but if this rally continues during this period, we expect a reversal as we move towards the first quarter of next year."

At present, expert opinions regarding the near future of the pair are divided as follows: 40% voted for a strengthening dollar, 30% sided with the euro, and 30% remained neutral. Among trend indicators on D1, 100% are voting for the euro and the pair's rise. With oscillators, 60% are in favour, 30% are looking south, and 10% are pointing east. The nearest support for the pair is located around 1.0800-1.0830, followed by 1.0770, 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0520, 1.0450, 1.0375, 1.0200-1.0255, 1.0130, and 1.0000. Bulls will encounter resistance around 1.0925, 1.0965-1.0985, 1.1020, 1.1070-1.1110, 1.1150, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

Next week, both Europe and the United States will be summarizing the year and preparing for Christmas. Notable economic events include the release of inflation data (CPI) in the Eurozone on Tuesday, December 19. On Wednesday, December 20, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index will be published. The following day, the U.S. GDP volume for the third quarter and the number of initial jobless claims will be announced. The work week concludes on Friday, December 22, with a comprehensive package of data on the U.S. consumer market.

GBP/USD: BoE Refrains from Feeding Doves

Just as with the Fed and the ECB, the situation with the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) is completely aligned. A simple copy-paste of the earlier discussion applies here. In its meeting, the British regulator also left the interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. And like the ECB, it did not provide any reason that could spur dovish expectations for 2024. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey noted that the Bank of England still has a path to tread, and three out of the nine members of the Monetary Policy Committee even voted for a further increase in the rate.

The economic indicators for the United Kingdom are varied. According to statistics, the real wage growth, adjusted for inflation, continues to increase annually. However, while the economy was forecasted to grow by 0.1%, it actually contracted by 0.3%, following a growth of 0.2% the previous month. Additionally, industrial production volumes in October decreased by 0.8%, and the annual figure dropped from 1.5% to 0.4%, significantly worse than the market's expectation of 1.1%. Data released on Friday, December 15th, showed a significant improvement in service sector activity in December. The PMI index reached 52.7, exceeding expectations of 51.0 and marking the best figure in the last five months. However, on the other hand, manufacturing activity in November decreased to 46.4 from 47.2, even though markets were expecting it to rise to 47.5.

Meanwhile, "the inflation genie is still out of the bottle." Based on this, the Bank of England is unlikely to abandon its strict monetary policy, which remains the only barrier to further inflation growth. Experts agree on this point. The only open question is when the regulator will finally be able to reduce the rate.

The last chord of the past week for GBP/USD sounded at the level of 1.2681. According to economists at ING, the 1.2820-1.2850 area poses strong resistance for GBP/USD. If this is breached, they believe, the pair could reach the heights of 1.3000, which would be a huge Christmas gift for the bulls. However, the team at Japan's Nomura Bank is quite sceptical about the growth prospects of the pair, believing that in both Q1 and Q2 of 2024, the pair will trade around 1.2700 and 1.2800.

At the time of writing this forecast, the median forecast of analysts offers no clear guidance: 25% voted for the pair's rise, another 25% for its fall, and 50% simply shrugged their shoulders. Among trend indicators on D1, as in the case of the previous pair, 100% point north. Among the oscillators, 65% look up, 30% down, and the remaining 15% maintain neutrality. In the event of the pair moving south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2600-1.2625, 1.2545-1.2575, 1.2500-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085, 1.2035. In case of an increase, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2710-1.2535, then 1.2790-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

The upcoming week's calendar highlights Wednesday, December 20, as a significant day, when the United Kingdom's Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published. On Friday, December 22, the day will be shorter in the UK due to Christmas preparations. However, that morning will see the release of significant economic macrostatistics, including data on retail sales and GDP.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 16, 2023, 12:15:49 PM
USD/JPY: Yen's Triumph Scheduled for 2024

On November 13, USD/JPY reached a high of 151.90. However, within a mere five weeks, the Japanese yen succeeded in regaining over 1000 points from the dollar. Thursday, December 7, marked a significant triumph for the yen, as it strengthened across the entire market, moving the dollar down by about 225 points. At that moment, the pair's minimum was recorded at 141.62. In the past week, it followed the lead of the Fed and the Dollar Index DXY, ending the five-day stretch at a level of 142.14.

The primary reason for this yen rally has been growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will finally abandon its negative interest rate policy, and this is anticipated to happen sooner than expected. Rumours suggest that regional banks in the country, lobbying for a departure from yield curve control policy, are pressuring the regulator. Seemingly to confirm these rumours, the BoJ conducted a special survey in early December among market participants to discuss the consequences of moving away from ultra-loose monetary policy and the side effects of such a step.

The yen is also being favoured by the outcomes of the recent meetings of the Fed and the ECB, which have reinforced market confidence that interest rates for the dollar and euro have plateaued and are only expected to decrease going forward. This divergence allows for the prediction that investors will unwind their carry trade strategies and reduce the yield spreads between Japanese government bonds and their counterparts in the US and Eurozone. Such developments should lead to a return of capital to the yen.

The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) final meeting of the year is scheduled for Tuesday, December 19. However, it is likely that the regulator will keep its monetary policy parameters unchanged at this meeting. Economists at Japan's MUFG Bank expect the BoJ to end its YCC (Yield Curve Control) and NIRP (Negative Interest Rate Policy) at its January meeting. This is partially already factored into the quotes, but the tone of the Bank of Japan at the December meeting could further fuel expectations for a tightening of policy in 2024. MUFG believes that the yen has the greatest potential for growth among G10 currencies next year. "The global inflationary shock is reversing direction, and this has the most significant implications for the JPY," say the bank's strategists.

In the near term, 30% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the yen, 10% favour the dollar, and a substantial majority (60%) hold a neutral position. Regarding trend indicators on D1, there's again an absolute dominance of the red color, 100%. Among the oscillators, the same 100% are colored red, but 25% of them signal oversold conditions. The nearest support level is located in the 141.35-141.60 zone, followed by 140.60-140.90, 138.75-139.05, 137.25-137.50, 135.90, 134.35, and 131.25. Resistance levels and zones are situated at 143.75-144.05, followed by 145.30, 146.55-146.90, 147.65-147.85, 148.40, 149.20, 149.80-150.00, 150.80, 151.60, and 151.90-152.15.

Apart from the Bank of Japan's meeting on December 19 and the subsequent press conference by its leadership, no other significant events concerning the Japanese economy are expected in the coming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Will Bitcoin ETFs Replace Binance?

By the end of Friday, December 8, the leading cryptocurrency, bitcoin, reached a height of $44,694. It last traded above $40,000 in April 2022. Just two days later, on the morning of December 11, surprised investors found bitcoin at the $40,145 mark, leading to immense disappointment.

The rapid price decline lasted no more than 5 minutes. Several theories explain this event. One theory is that the trigger was the strong U.S. labour market data released on December 8. Another possibility is that it was either a nervous reaction or a technical error in trade volume, possibly made by a trading bot or a trader, leading to a cascade of protective stop executions in the futures market. According to Coinglass, over 24 hours, more than $400 million in long positions were liquidated, including $85.5 million in bitcoin.

Our analysis suggests that the most realistic explanation is as follows: since mid-August, bitcoin had grown by about 85% and more than 160% since the beginning of the year. It appears that some major players, in anticipation of the year's end, decided to lock in profits. Notably, two days before this incident, DecenTrader's head, known as FibFilb, had warned: "We have grown significantly this year, and a correction is expected. [...] It has been long overdue," he stated on December 9.

The negative sentiment may have been amplified by news that a $4.3 billion fine had not resolved the issues the crypto exchange Binance is facing. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to press charges against the exchange for illegal trading of securities and other violations.

U.S. Department of Justice officials intend to thoroughly scrutinize the trading platform's operations to determine compliance with legislative standards. The exchange will be compelled to grant continuous access to all its documents and records, including information related to the company's employees, agents, intermediaries, consultants, partners, and contractors, as well as traders, to representatives of the Department of Justice, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, and all other financial regulators and law enforcement agencies.

Last week, former SEC head John Reed Stark published an opinion on the potential demise of Binance, referencing the U.S. government's official demands to the platform. The list of these demands alone spanned 13 pages of typescript, including procedures that have never before been applied to companies. This led Stark to sardonically refer to the situation as a "financial colonoscopy."

It is noteworthy that attacks on Binance in 2023 led to a decline in its share of the spot market from 55% to 32%. In the derivatives market, its share is 47.7%, marking the worst performance since October 2020.

Discussing the intensification of regulatory pressure, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that if he were the U.S. government, he would "damn well ban all digital currencies for aiding fraudsters and terrorists." Yet, the U.S. authorities haven't taken such measures. Why?

There's a famous saying attributed to the Italian thinker, politician, and philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli: "If you can't beat the crowd, lead it." He voiced it about 500 years ago, but it remains relevant today. For instance, despite all prohibitions, the Chinese continue to be a significant and active part of the crypto industry. The U.S. seems to have considered that instead of banning digital assets, cutting off the internet, and confiscating computers and smartphones, it's easier to lead and control this process. Hence, experts believe, the idea of exchange-traded spot bitcoin ETFs was born. Such funds will allow for monitoring crypto investors, studying their transactions, and not only collecting taxes from them but also determining the legality of these transactions. Therefore, the logic of the officials here is quite clear. And in this rare case, millions of small investors also applaud this process, hoping that their investments will significantly increase thanks to BTC-ETFs and regulatory pressure.

Returning to the events of December 11, trader, analyst, and founder of the venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, urged the community "not to worry." He explained that corrections happen, especially deep ones in the illiquid altcoin market. In light of what occurred, the analyst made his forecast for the change in bitcoin's price. According to his analysis, the key support zone on higher time frames is currently in the $36,500-38,000 range. "Bitcoin's momentum is gradually coming to an end, and Ethereum will easily take the lead in the next quarter," he added.

Crypto expert William Clemente is also unworried about the decrease in bitcoin's price, deeming it inevitable. In his view, such a correction serves as a solid foundation for the start of the next bullish trend, as it eliminates long positions opened by greedy traders using leverage.

Eli Taranto, Director at EQI Bank, agrees with Van De Poppe's prediction and also foresees a decline in bitcoin's value. "As traders lock in profits and await decisions on ETF applications, bitcoin's price will continue to fluctuate, subject to the butterfly effect [a phenomenon where a small change in a system can have large and unpredictable consequences, even in a completely different location]. A drop in BTC price to $39,000 is clearly possible," noted Taranto.

Indeed, the Director of EQI Bank is correct: bitcoin did continue to "fluctuate in the wind," as evident from the BTC/USD chart before and after the last week's Fed meeting in the U.S. As a result, aided by a weakening dollar, the pair moved upwards again, reaching a high of $43,440 on Wednesday, December 13.

As of writing this review, on the evening of December 15, it is trading around $42,200. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.61 trillion, down from $1.64 trillion a week ago. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 72 to 70 points and remains in the Greed zone.

Regarding the near future of digital gold, investment banking giant Goldman Sachs' experts recently published a new report suggesting that bitcoin's quotations could continue to rise in the near term. CryptoQuant analysts have entertained the possibility of bitcoin breaking the $50,000 level at the start of 2024. This forecast is based on an analysis of BTC holder activity and also takes into account the dynamics of transaction volume, market capitalization, and Metcalfe's Law in the context of cryptocurrencies. "Bitcoin could be targeting the $50,000-$53,000 range," the experts noted.

However, CryptoQuant believes that the market is currently approaching an "overheated bullish phase," which historically is accompanied by pauses and corrections. The analysts emphasized that the volume of "in the money" coin supply exceeds 88%. This indicates potential selling pressure and, therefore, probable short-term corrections. According to their observations, such high levels of unrealized profit "historically coincided with local peaks."

To conclude, let's reflect on another historic event – a time when digital gold was trading at $0.20. Thirteen years ago, on December 12, 2010, the creator of the first cryptocurrency, known by the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto, published his last post on a forum before disappearing from the public eye. The message did not hint at the departure of this enigmatic figure. It contained a description of an update and code for Denial-of-Service (DoS) management elements. Some experts believe that the blockchain founder had planned to leave the team due to disputes and disagreements within the developer collective and criticism for excessive control over the project and unilateral decision-making.

Regardless, as one user on the BitcoinTalk forum noted while recalling the last post of the cryptocurrency's creator, "Satoshi's contribution to decentralization and his fight against financial dictatorship is more than just a technological marvel. It's a movement for economic freedom and sovereignty. [...] His disappearance is not just an act of self-preservation but also a reminder that not everything in life revolves around personal fame."
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 20, 2023, 02:50:30 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/20/IX9O9.jpeg)

– The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the United States is expected to approve the first spot bitcoin ETFs around January 8-10. This opinion was expressed by Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart. In his view, the SEC has been strategically delaying applications for the instrument to approve most of them simultaneously, thereby not giving an advantage to any single issuer. This is why Seyffart is confident in the mass approval of requests in January. An additional argument in favour of approving bitcoin ETFs is Grayscale's court victory against the SEC in August. Seyffart stated that the Commission has been "cornered by the judges."

– The CEO of investment firm VanEck, Jan Van Eck, believes that the first cryptocurrency holds an advantage over other digital assets in its role as a store of value. In an interview with CNBC, he stated that bitcoin possesses unique properties that make it unmatched in the realm of internet finance and has already become a viable alternative to gold. Van Eck also dismissed the idea that bitcoin is a "bubble," arguing that an asset consistently surpassing its previous highs on each new upward trend cannot be considered "inflated."
According to the businessman, the coin is expected to reach a new all-time high within the next 12 months. Regarding the bitcoin ETFs for which 13 companies, including VanEck, have applied, he, like James Seyffart, speculated that the SEC will approve all ETFs simultaneously.

– Legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt has identified a "rising wedge" technical pattern on the Ethereum price chart, traditionally seen as a precursor to a bearish trend reversal. According to this model, Brandt suggested that the price of the largest altcoin might decrease to $1,000 and possibly further to $650. He also revealed that he took a short position on this asset on December 15. Despite his forecast, Brandt stressed that price chart patterns are not infallible and may not always behave as predicted in theory.
Brandt previously expressed his view that Ethereum cannot rival Bitcoin as a store of value, questioning the rationale of holding ETH over BTC. He predicts that within ten years, the altcoin will no longer be traded on exchanges, citing the high transaction fees associated with ETH as a significant drawback.
(Background note: Brandt brings over four decades of experience in financial markets and is the creator of Factor Trading, a platform offering expert reports and asset price chart analysis.).

– Michael Saylor, founder of MicroStrategy, has described the leading cryptocurrency as an asset capable of transforming investment strategies globally. He believes that "bitcoin will either fall to zero or soar to $1 million." If the first cryptocurrency continues to gain the trust of financial institutions, its price is likely to rise rapidly. Saylor highlighted bitcoin's unique advantages as a digital asset: its decentralized nature, limited supply of 21 million coins, and increasing adoption worldwide.
Saylor acknowledged that his "zero or million" forecast underscores the volatility inherent in the cryptocurrency market. He noted that most institutions currently underestimate bitcoin. If it is on the path to becoming a primary asset in institutional portfolios, the current level of investment in bitcoin is insufficient. However, an increasing number of institutions are beginning to shift their investment strategies, aiming to increase their bitcoin holdings in anticipation of long-term growth.

– Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of the early developers of bitcoin, compared the last few years to a biblical plague epidemic. He mentioned COVID-19, the quantitative easing of monetary policy by central banks, wars affecting the cost of electricity, and inflation leading to bankruptcies among individuals and companies.
Back observed that as 2023 comes to an end, the impacts of many of these events have subsided. "The bankruptcies of companies related to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX... all of that is largely over. I don’t think we're in for many more big surprises," he stated. Back anticipates that 2024 will be a year of recovery for bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency is expected to react to the upcoming halving in April, potentially reaching a price of $100,000 even before the event.

– The shocking payment of a $4.3 billion fine imposed by the U.S. Department of Justice on the major cryptocurrency exchange Binance last month was not the end of its troubles. Two more cases have been opened against the platform.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) of the U.S. accused Changpeng Zhao (commonly known as CZ) and Binance itself of illegal operations in the country. In this proceeding, the exchange agreed to pay another substantial fine of $2.7 billion, while former CEO CZ personally will have to pay $150 million. As a result, Binance has already been penalized by American authorities to the staggering amount of $7 billion. However, there's still a conflict to be resolved with the SEC, and it's unlikely that the amounts involved in this case will be smaller than those with the CFTC and the Department of Justice.

– In early December, Binance conducted a survey involving users from the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and Latin America. U.S. citizens were understandably not surveyed. The survey found that 45% of the exchange's users consider cryptocurrencies a means of earning additional income. Over a third of the respondents (36%) engage in cryptocurrency transactions weekly. Of these, 58% use cryptocurrencies for online purchases, 12% for international transactions and money transfers, and another 12% pay for in-store purchases with cryptocurrencies. 59% of the respondents have been involved in cryptocurrencies for 1 to 5 years, 14% have been in the market for over five years, and only 12% have been dealing with crypto assets for less than six months.
Survey participants also shared the positive impact of cryptocurrencies on their lives. A majority of them – 76% – are confident that cryptocurrencies can provide financial equality in society.

– Charles Hoskinson, the founder of Cardano, has warned that deepfakes pose a serious and real threat to the crypto community. He cited an example of a YouTube video created using artificial intelligence, where a pseudo-Hoskinson discusses an upcoming giveaway in ADA. The AI skilfully replicates the real Hoskinson's intonations and speech manner, giving the impression of a live broadcast.
Cybersecurity experts say that deepfake technology has advanced to the point where it can be used online, allowing fraudsters to mimic someone's voice, image, and movements during a conversation or virtual meeting. They point out that this technology is widely available, relatively easy to use, and continually improving.
For reference: ADA is the native cryptocurrency of Cardano, named after Ada Lovelace, a 19th-century English mathematician recognized as one of the first computer programmers. She is particularly known for her work in 1842 on a computational machine.

– Chainalysis analysts have identified at least 1,013 addresses involved in targeted phishing scams. Phishing is a type of fraud where criminals send emails or SMS messages asking the recipient to click on a link or log into their account. Perpetrators often impersonate representatives of exchanges or digital wallets. In 2022, victims of phishing lost approximately $517 million, while in 2023, thefts totalling around $375 million have been recorded so far. The record for a single phishing incident is a theft of $44 million.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 25, 2023, 09:56:44 AM
Forecast: What to Expect from the Euro and Dollar in 2024


(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/23/IRdI5.jpeg)

Traditionally, we publish currency forecasts from leading global financial institutions at the turn of the outgoing and incoming years. Having maintained this practice for several years, it enables us to not only peer into the future but also to reflect on past predictions by experts and evaluate their accuracy.
 

2022: The Beginning

Just as the world had adapted to living under coronavirus-induced quarantine conditions, war entered the planet's life. Russia's armed invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and the ensuing anti-Russian sanctions exacerbated economic problems and spurred inflation growth in many countries, even those far from this region.

The proximity of EU countries to the conflict zone, their strong dependence on Russian natural energy resources, the nuclear threat, and the risks of the conflict spreading to their territories dealt a serious blow to the Eurozone economy. In such circumstances, the European Central Bank (ECB) had to act with utmost caution to avoid a complete collapse. The United States found itself in a significantly more advantageous position, which allowed the Federal Reserve, aiming to reduce inflationary pressure, to begin a cycle of interest rate hikes on March 16. This acted as a catalyst for the strengthening of the dollar, and on July 14, EUR/USD fell below the parity line of 1.0000 for the first time in 20 years, reaching a low of 0.9535 on September 28. In mid-July, the European Central Bank also began to gradually increase the euro rate. As a result, EUR/USD entered the new year, 2023, at a level of 1.0700.


2023: Whose Forecasts Proved More Accurate

The coronavirus pandemic began to subside, and on May 5, the WHO declared that COVID-19 was no longer a global emergency. Gradually, various countries started to relax quarantine restrictions. The military actions in Ukraine turned into a prolonged conflict. The fight against inflation slowly started showing signs of success, and the economy managed to adapt to rising interest rates and high energy prices. A global catastrophe was averted, and voices predicting a soft landing, especially for the U.S. economy and possibly the Eurozone, grew louder.

In 2022, the maximum range of fluctuations for EUR/USD exceeded 1,700 points, but in 2023, this figure was halved to 828 points. The pair reached its peak on July 18, climbing to 1.1275. It found its bottom at 1.0447 on October 3 and is ending December in the 1.0900-1.1000 range (as of the writing of this review), not far from the January values.

So, what forecasts did experts give for 2023? The furthest from reality was the forecast by Internationale Nederlanden Groep. ING was confident that all the pressure factors of 2022 would persist into 2023. High energy prices would continue to heavily burden the European economy. Additional pressure would come if the U.S. Federal Reserve halted its printing press before the ECB. According to analysts from this major Dutch banking group, a rate of 0.9500 euros per dollar was expected in Q1 2023, which could then rise, reaching parity at 1.0000 in Q4.

The Agency for Economic Forecasting's experts were accurate regarding the EUR/USD dynamics in Q1: they predicted a rise to 1.1160 (in reality, it rose to 1.1033). However, they expected the pair to then undergo a steady decline, reaching 1.0050 by the end of Q3 and finishing the year at 0.9790. Here, they were significantly mistaken.

But it wasn't just the bears who were wrong; the bulls on the euro/dollar pair also erred. For example, the French financial conglomerate Societe Generale voted for a weakening dollar and a rising pair. However, their forecast of a climb above 1.1500 by the end of Q1 was too radical. Strategists at Deutsche Bank allowed for fluctuations in the 1.0800-1.1500 range. However, in their view, the pair's rise to the upper limit was only possible if the Fed began to ease its monetary policy in the second half of 2023. (We now know that no easing occurred, but the rate was frozen at 5.50% from July onwards).

The most accurate predictions came from Bank of America and the German Commerzbank. According to Bank of America's base scenario, the U.S. dollar was expected to remain strong in early 2023 and then start to gradually weaken, leading the EUR/USD pair to rise to 1.1000 after the Fed's pause. Commerzbank supported this scenario, stating, "Considering the expected change in the Fed's interest rate and assuming that the ECB refrains from lowering interest rates [...], our target price for EUR/USD for 2023 is 1.1000," was the verdict of strategists from this banking conglomerate.
 

2024: What to Expect in the New Year

What awaits the euro and dollar in the upcoming year of 2024? It's important to note that forecasts vary significantly due to the numerous "surprises" life has presented recently and the many unresolved issues it has left for the future. Questions remain about the geopolitical situation, the direction and pace of the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB), the state of the economy and labour markets, the extent to which inflation and energy prices can be controlled, who will be elected President of the United States in November, the outcomes of Russia's war in Ukraine and the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the balance of power in the U.S.-China rivalry. The answers to these and other questions are yet to be discovered. With many factors of uncertainty, experts have not reached a consensus.

Recent dovish remarks by Fed Chair Jerome Powell and moderately hawkish statements by ECB President Christine Lagarde have led markets to believe that the Fed will lead in easing monetary policy and lowering interest rates in 2024. If the market does not receive a countersignal, the U.S. dollar will remain under pressure. Societe Generale believes the Dollar Index (DXY) could drop from the current 102.50 to below 100, possibly as low as 97 points. A Reuters poll of analysts also indicates that the U.S. dollar should weaken in the coming year. An Investing.com review suggests that EUR/USD could potentially reach 1.1500, subject to various geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions.

According to the base scenario outlined by UBS Wealth Management, a slowdown in U.S. economic growth, falling inflation, and expectations of lower interest rates should support stocks and bonds. Regarding the EUR/USD pair, UBS sees it at a level of 1.1200. German Commerzbank's forecasts also include a peak of 1.1200. Analysts there expect a temporary strengthening of the euro against the dollar before a subsequent weakening. They anticipate the rate will rise to 1.1200 by June 2024, then decrease to 1.0800 by March 2025.

ING economists calculate that in the second half of 2024, the EUR/USD rate will still be rising towards 1.1800. However, they caution that this forecast is based solely on the possible trajectory of Fed and ECB policies. They note, "The rate differential is not the only factor determining the EUR/USD course." Low growth rates in the Eurozone and political uncertainty regarding the reintroduction of the Stability and Growth Pact suggest that EUR/USD will end this year close to 1.0600, with its peak levels in 2024 closer to 1.1500 than to 1.1800.

Fidelity International, JPMorgan, and HSBC economists do not rule out a scenario where other regulators, such as the ECB and the Bank of England, might take the lead in easing ahead of the Fed.

Goldman Sachs strategists believe that while the dollar's prospects may worsen in 2024, the strong and stable U.S. economy will limit the fall of the currency. They write that the dollar is still highly valued, and investors lean towards it, which will remain "strong for a long time," and any decline will be insignificant. The U.S. economy is too strong to cause a rate cut of a full 150 basis points in 2024.

Danske Bank, Westpac, and HSBC also believe that by the end of 2024, the dollar will strengthen against the euro and the British pound. ABN Amro's forecast for the end of next year suggests a rate of 1.0500, and the Agency for Economic Forecasting predicts 1.0230.

***

The ancient Chinese military treatise "The Thirty-Six Stratagems" states, "He who tries to foresee everything loses vigilance." Indeed, it is impossible to foresee everything. But one thing can be said for sure: the upcoming twelve months, like the previous ones, will be full of unexpected surprises. So, remain vigilant, and fortune will be on your side.

Happy upcoming New Year 2024! It promises to be very interesting.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 27, 2023, 04:31:17 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/27/IcFlC.jpeg)

– Brian Armstrong, the head of the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, published an article filled with numerous statistical data. Following a significant market correction this year, the value of cryptocurrencies increased by 90%, accompanied by a 60% increase in trading volume in the fourth quarter (Q4). Armstrong highlighted that currently, 425 million people worldwide own cryptocurrencies. Additionally, 83% of the G20 member countries and major financial centres have either implemented or are in the process of developing regulations for the industry.
He emphasized that over 100,000 merchants and payment systems worldwide now accept payments in cryptocurrencies, including companies like PayPal and Visa. Armstrong also referenced a report by Circle, according to which the volume of international settlements in stablecoins over the last year exceeded $7 trillion. This indicates that stablecoins are assisting fiat currencies like the US dollar to exist in digital form.
In countries with underdeveloped economies, such as Argentina, Brazil, and Nigeria, cryptocurrencies are becoming increasingly popular among the population. People living and working abroad use cryptocurrencies for money transfers. Crypto transfers are on average 96% cheaper than traditional methods and take 10 minutes instead of 10 days, as mentioned in Armstrong's article. Even major financial hubs, London, Switzerland, Hong Kong, and Singapore are transforming into crypto centres to expand employment opportunities in the blockchain and cryptocurrency sector.
Brian Armstrong underscored that cryptocurrencies provide people with economic freedom by giving them access to their own money and allowing them to fully participate in the economy, regardless of the limitations of powerful, but outdated, financial companies.

– Gary Gensler, the Chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), published a post on X (formerly Twitter) on December 22, addressing the industry's non-compliance with regulations. "There are numerous violations in the cryptocurrency sphere," the post read. "It's a breach of trust resulting in many people being harmed. All they can do is wait for the court to declare them bankrupt."
The community instantly reacted to the SEC head's statement, emphasizing that they had long requested the regulator to clarify the specific rules they need to comply with. It is known that Coinbase, the largest American cryptocurrency exchange, has been striving for years to get clarity from the SEC on industry regulations.
Billy Markus, the founder of Dogecoin, stated that the SEC Chairman had not established real rules. Markus went on to describe Gensler as "useless in every respect." Brad Garlinghouse, the CEO of Ripple, also commented on Gensler's post. He characterized it as "staggering hypocrisy" and called Gensler "politically accountable" for undermining the integrity of the SEC's requirements.
On the same day, the SEC issued a new statement, expressing "deep regret" over some mistakes made by the Commission during enforcement proceedings. Paul Grewal, the Chief Legal Officer at Coinbase, pointed out that the SEC's "regrets" about its mistakes do not negate the fact that its chairman is "intimidating the entire American industry." From a legal standpoint, these regrets hold no significance for any taxpayer or judge.

– Jan van Eck, the head of the eponymous company that also applied to launch a spot BTC-ETF, gave an interview to CNBC. "I cannot imagine any other asset overtaking bitcoin," he stated. Jan van Eck views the first cryptocurrency as the best means of saving and expects BTC to reach a record high in the next 12 months. "Bitcoin has 50 million users. It's an obvious asset that is growing right before our eyes," he declared. The head of VanEck also dismissed the idea that bitcoin is a "bubble." The businessman explained that an asset that consistently surpasses its previous highs in each upward trend simply cannot be considered "inflated."

– Bitcoin will end the year as one of the most profitable assets, largely due to the excitement surrounding applications for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The leading cryptocurrency, having grown by more than 163%, outperformed traditional assets, only falling behind semiconductor giant Nvidia, whose stocks more than doubled amid the artificial intelligence wave.
Kaiko Research analysts believe that this year's bitcoin price dynamics can be divided into three phases: an early rally from cyclical lows, a mid-year pause, and a year-end rally, indicating the development of a new bull market.
Kaiko points out that bitcoin has long been regarded as a hedge against inflation, a digital alternative to gold, or a completely new asset. However, for most of its history, its price was significantly tied to macroeconomic conditions, the strength of the dollar, and stocks. This year marked a change when bitcoin began losing its correlation with stock indices, including the Nasdaq 100. The most rapid decoupling occurred recently, when the asset surpassed the $40,000 mark, the analysts note.

– According to the forecast of Brandon Zemp, CEO of the consulting firm BlockHash, 2024 will be a favorable year for bitcoin, the launch of cryptocurrency ETFs, and the adoption of regulations for crypto-assets.
Zemp, the author of "The Future Economy: A Crypto Insider’s Guide to the Tech Dismantling Traditional Banking," mentioned the collapse of the FTX exchange, the bankruptcy of crypto lenders, and the downfall of some stablecoins. He believes that the failure of crypto projects was facilitated by investors themselves, who bought colourful JPEG-format NFTs and trusted developers creating useless software.
"The good news is that cryptocurrencies are here to stay, and wrongdoers are constantly being pushed out of the market. A bullish trend is again on the horizon, and it may be more stable as bad players have been removed from the scene," the head of BlockHash declared. He expressed hope that in 2024, U.S. legislators will be able to bring regulatory clarity to the crypto market. "I would not like everything to be decided in courts. I am hopeful that next year a cryptocurrency bill will be passed. Otherwise, regulators will continue to sink their teeth into the industry, and cryptocurrencies will continue to resist," added Zemp.

– Analysts at the analytical company IntoTheBlock reported that hodlers hold a record number of bitcoins and Ethereum. IntoTheBlock classifies as hodlers those who have kept digital assets for at least a year. According to their data, as of December 24, hodlers owned 70% of the circulating bitcoins and 74% of Ethereum. The chart suggests that hodlers began accumulating coins as early as 2022. In such a market situation, a supply shock could occur. In this case, an increase in the value of digital assets would be inevitable, even with a constant level of demand.
IntoTheBlock experts also noted that this year Ethereum lags behind bitcoin in terms of price growth. Since January 1, BTC has increased in price by 163%, while ETH has risen only by 90%. Considering the increasing number of Ethereum blockchain users, analysts believe that in 2024, this altcoin will appreciate more than bitcoin.

– The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced that it has not changed its stance and continues to advocate for a complete ban on the use of cryptocurrencies as a means of payment and a tradable commodity. High-ranking government officials have indicated that the central bank sees no significant benefits in issuing licenses to cryptocurrency companies. According to central bank representatives, private cryptocurrencies threaten India's macroeconomic stability, violate the country's monetary sovereignty, expose consumers to risks, and facilitate illegal activities, including money laundering and financing terrorism. Officials assert that, at best, crypto assets should be viewed as gambling.
However, the RBI considers it prudent to launch its own digital currency, as a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) would be another tool to stimulate the rapid development of the digital economy. The Reserve Bank of India is confident that a digital rupee will provide consumer protection and serve as an alternative to private cryptocurrencies.

– Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, made three key forecasts for 2024. His first prediction is based on the actions of the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), which are expected to introduce their own gold-backed cryptocurrency. This, he believes, will lead to the demise of the US dollar. According to Kiyosaki, bitcoin and precious metals may benefit from this, as investors shift their funds into these assets. "The US dollar will die. Trillions of dollars will return home. Inflation will skyrocket. Buy gold, silver. Next year bitcoin will shoot up to $120,000," Kiyosaki declared.
His second forecast suggests that traditional investors, who usually allocate 60% of their funds in bonds and 40% in stocks, will face significant losses in 2024. To safeguard themselves, he recommended reallocating 75% of their portfolio into gold, silver, and bitcoins, and investing the remaining 25% in real estate or oil stocks.
Finally, Kiyosaki's third and last prediction is a stark warning about the severity of the upcoming market crash. Rejecting the idea of a soft landing, he asserts that a crash landing is more likely, which could lead to a full-scale economic depression.

– American venture capitalist Tim Draper has speculated that the value of bitcoin might significantly surpass the $250,000 mark in the upcoming year. He believes the route to widespread adoption of this premier cryptocurrency will be paved through stablecoins. Draper explained his confidence in bitcoin's potential, recalling his belief in the cryptocurrency even when it was valued at $4,000. He attributed the slower-than-expected growth of bitcoin to the apprehensions of a rigid U.S. government, acknowledging his underestimation of the United States' conservative stance.
Draper, an avid supporter of smart contracts, envisions a future where all financial dealings, including investments, payments, salary disbursements, and tax transactions, could be conducted in bitcoin. He anticipates that stablecoins will act as a critical transitional tool, facilitating bitcoin's mass acceptance. "Stablecoins will remain functional as long as the dollar retains its viability. However, as the dollar's influence wanes, I foresee a shift where people will gravitate towards bitcoin," Draper predicted.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 29, 2023, 06:28:05 PM
Forecast 2024: Bitcoin Yesterday, Tomorrow, and the Day After


(https://talkimg.com/images/2023/12/29/IiVog.jpeg)

The main question, just a few years ago, was when the crypto bubble would burst. Over time, bitcoin gradually earned its place in the minds and portfolios of traders and investors. Competing actively with physical gold and other investment and defensive assets, digital gold emerged as a formidable contender.

In the past year, the merits and drawbacks of bitcoin have been a topic of frequent discussion, encompassing analysis of its rises and falls and presenting views from seasoned Wall Street experts and pseudonymous social network analysts. It's important to note that many predictions from both groups proved quite accurate, despite the ultra-high volatility of this flagship asset. Today's focus is on recalling the 2023 predictions for bitcoin, their forecasts for 2024 and beyond, with a particular emphasis on those specialists who offered specific figures rather than general, vague phrases.


2023: Those Who Hit the Mark or Came Close

Let's recall that the past year was undoubtedly successful for bitcoin. Despite all its highs and lows, BTC/USD, starting the year at $16,515, reached a peak of $44,694 on December 8, demonstrating a 2.7-fold increase. Among the reasons for the coin's bull rally, experts cite the growing network hash rate, anticipation of the Federal Reserve's policy easing, and, of course, the approval by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs and the bitcoin halving in April 2024. It should be noted that all these events began to influence market sentiment only in the second half of 2023. Therefore, the forecasts made in the first half of the year are particularly interesting.

Alistair Milne, IT Director of Altana Digital Currency Fund, made a nearly bullseye prediction by stating, "By the end of 2023, we should see bitcoin at a minimum of $45,000," which he declared already in January.

Mark W. Yusko, the head of Morgan Creek, in February, precisely identified that the next bull market could start as early as the second quarter of 2023, due to favourable macroeconomic conditions. He noted that it was unlikely for the U.S. Federal Reserve to reduce the key interest rate during this period. However, a slowdown or pause in rate adjustments would be seen as a positive sign for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Yusko, emphasizing the upcoming halving, pointed out that the digital asset market's recovery usually starts nine months prior to such events, indicating that this rally should have commenced by the end of summer 2023.

Experts at Matrixport, comparing January's BTC quotes with historical data and anticipating a deceleration in the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth, accurately predicted that the flagship cryptocurrency's rate might reach $29,000 by summer and $45,000 by Christmas. This precise hit on the target was made evident by their analysis.

Trader, analyst, and founder of venture company Eight, Michael Van De Poppe, released a video review predicting the coin's rise to $40,000 by year-end, a forecast made at the start of March. Similarly, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, projected a rise to $40,000, with the caveat that this level would be achieved only when the U.S. Federal Reserve started reducing the key interest rate. Dave the Wave, a trader known for several accurate predictions, voiced the same $40,000 target in May, emphasizing that this was his conservative estimate.

BTC/USD fell below $25,000 in the first half of June, and the market was yet to learn that in just a few days, major financial institutions would start submitting applications to the SEC for entering the cryptocurrency market through spot bitcoin ETFs. Among the contenders for launching these funds were global asset managers like BlackRock, Invesco, Fidelity, and others. At this point, Business Insider took an interest in expert predictions. Let's look at a few opinions gathered from their survey.

Jagdeep Sidhu, President of Syscoin Foundation, believed that despite several crypto storms, the ecosystem's resilience had become evident. The market had recovered from the ashes of FTX, and if inflation in the U.S. decreased, bitcoin could reach $38,000 by year-end, Sidhu stated. David Uhryniak, Director of Ecosystem Development at TRON, along with Benjamin Cowen, was confident that bitcoin would end the year above $35,000.

A consensus forecast from another survey conducted by Finder.com among 29 analysts pointed to a price of $38,488 by year-end, with bitcoin's peak values in 2023 expected to be around $42,000. Naturally, individual expert predictions varied. Overall, most survey participants (59%) were optimistic about BTC, considering summer a good time to enter the market, 34% advised holding existing cryptocurrency, and 7% recommended selling it.


2023: Above or Below the Target

Certainly, not all predictions were as close to the year's outcomes. Another frequently cited target in forecasts was the $50,000 mark, which, according to the analyst known as CryptoYoddha, experts at TradingShot, and former Goldman Sachs top manager and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal, BTC/USD was expected to reach. Legendary trader and analyst Peter Brandt, who accurately predicted BTC's 2018 correction, set his sights even higher this time. He believed the coin would reach its previous highs near $68,000 in the second half of 2023, followed by another correction and a new all-time high.

In late January 2023, the analyst under the pseudonym Plan B predicted that the flagship currency would rise to $100,000 by year-end. Moreover, he estimated that bitcoin could test the $42,000 level as early as March, citing the stock-to-flow (S2F) model he developed, which measured the relationship between an asset's available supply and its production rate. However, as we now know, the $42,000 test occurred only nine months later, in December, and $100,000 remained an unattainable height.

Felix Zulauf, founder of Zulauf Asset Management, speculated that bitcoin would enter a clear bull rally around late spring 2023 and did not rule out the possibility of the asset reaching $100,000 on a sharp upward trend. Credible Crypto experts also issued an optimistic forecast, suggesting that the flagship crypto asset had a good chance of renewing its historical maximum in the $69,000 zone. A CNBC survey among influential industry figures revealed expectations of retesting $69,000 by Tether's CTO Paolo Ardoino, while Marshall Beard, the Strategy Director of cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, pointed to $100,000. Investor and author of the famous book "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, named an even larger figure, claiming that by the beginning of 2024, bitcoin would reach $120,000.

The market isn't driven solely by bulls. Roaming its expanse, one can encounter bears and even "crypto-gravediggers." For instance, Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone, in May, anticipated a bitcoin price collapse to a support level of $7,366. This was a stark contrast to his view at the end of the previous year, 2022, when McGlone predicted bitcoin would soar to $100,000.

Strategists from the British multinational financial conglomerate Standard Chartered expected that a liquidity crisis would lead to new bankruptcies of crypto exchanges and companies, resulting in BTC potentially plummeting to $5,000 in 2023. An analyst known as Grinding Poet even declared that "a retest of the 2018 lows is inevitable" and set a new target of $3,150.
 

2024: Optimism and Super Optimism

Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Jamie Coutts has forecasted a rise in bitcoin's price to $50,000 before the halving in April 2024. Eric Balchunas, a senior analyst at Bloomberg, explained that the SEC's approval of BTC-ETF applications would open up bitcoin to a capital market of $30 trillion. Bloomberg anticipates that the approval will occur very soon, around January 8-10. According to predictions by the analytical firm Fundstrat, this could increase daily demand for bitcoin by $100 million. In this scenario, even before the planned halving, the price of BTC could reach up to $180,000.

Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream and one of the earliest developers of BTC, likened the past few years to a biblical plague epidemic. "There was COVID-19, central banks' quantitative easing, wars affecting energy costs, inflation driving people and companies to bankruptcy," he explained. As 2023 came to a close, the effects of many of these events had diminished, according to Back. "The bankruptcies linked to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, BlockFi, and FTX... all of that is mostly over. I don't think we're in for many big surprises." Back believes 2024 will be a year of recovery for bitcoin, responding to the upcoming halving in April and potentially reaching $100,000 before the event.

Samson Mow, former colleague of Back at Blockstream and now CEO of Jan3, agreed with this assessment. Experts at Seeking Alpha also echoed a similar figure, suggesting that the cryptocurrency should be valued around $98,000 to keep miners afloat post-halving.

Standard Chartered experts, particularly Geoff Kendrick, speak of a similar outlook. According to the bank's economists, the current situation indicates the end of the "crypto winter." However, their forecast is slightly more conservative, with the main cryptocurrency reaching the $100,000 mark only by the end of 2024. Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak also settled on this round figure. Pascal Gauthier, CEO of Ledger, David Marcus, head of Lightspark, and Vijay Ayyar, a top manager at CoinDCX, also anticipate bitcoin's price rise to $100,000.

Investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," Robert Kiyosaki, believes that the U.S. economy is on the brink of a serious crisis, and cryptocurrencies, particularly bitcoin, offer investors a safe haven in these turbulent times. Kiyosaki predicts that the halving will be a key event, potentially driving BTC's price to soar to $120,000. Markus Thielen, head of research at the crypto-financial service Matrixport, suggests a similar figure of $125,000. Renowned blogger and analyst Lark Davis believes that this event could lead to bitcoin's price rising to about $150,000, or even up to $180,000. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, estimates a rise to $185,000.

According to calculations by Dave the Wave, BTC, post the April 2024 halving, will only rise slightly above its previous high of around $69,000 by mid-2024, but could escalate to $160,000 by year-end. Alistair Milne predicts that by the end of 2024, the BTC rate should reach $150,000-$300,000. However, he cautions, "this may well be the peak opportunity for bulls." Analysts from LookIntoBitcoin advise locking in profits when the coin appreciates to at least $110,000.

And finally, let's consider the fresh perspective of Artificial Intelligence (AI): an increasingly integral voice in such discussions. The experts at Finbold consulted Google Bard, a machine learning system, about the likely value of the flagship cryptocurrency after the much-anticipated 2024 halving. The AI predicted that bitcoin would likely reach a new all-time high, attributing this not only to the halving but also to broader BTC adoption and interest from institutional investors. Google Bard specifically noted that after the halving, bitcoin could surge to $100,000. However, the AI also highlighted factors that could limit the cryptocurrency's growth, not ruling out the possibility of a continued crypto winter in 2024.

In contrast, a scenario from Google Bard’s competitor, ChatGPT, developed by OpenAI, appears more optimistic. It suggests that the main cryptocurrency could climb as high as $150,000. (Interestingly, the illustration accompanying this article was also created using AI, in this case, Microsoft Bing)
 
continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on December 29, 2023, 06:29:46 PM
2024: Moderate Optimism and Moderate Pessimism

Consolidating all the aforementioned scenarios into a consensus forecast, with certain allowances, yields a range from $100,000 to $180,000. While this range is undoubtedly encouraging for investors, there are more conservative and even pessimistic predictions.

Analyst PlanB, having missed his target in 2023, significantly lowered his expectations. "Expect $32,000 for bitcoin before the halving," he writes, "rising to $55,000 during the halving, and then, by the end of the year, the main cryptocurrency might climb to $66,000." Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, also stated that the first cryptocurrency's quotes would reach only a "modest" goal of $70,000.

A sobering perspective comes from the company CryptoVantage, whose employees surveyed 1,000 crypto investors in the USA. Only 23% of them believe that bitcoin will reach its historical maximum of $68,917 in the upcoming year. 47% think that the coin's price will rise to this mark within five years. 78% are confident that BTC will eventually return to its historical maximum, but at an undefined future date. However, 9% believe this will never happen again.

BBC World analyst Glen Goodman joined the chorus of sceptics. He commented that the $120,000 figure "seems more like a number plucked out of thin air than a realistically grounded prediction." Goodman argues that authors of such predictions favor market bulls and overlook several key factors. The most crucial, according to him, is that U.S. financial regulators are relentlessly targeting the crypto industry with lawsuits and investigations. Against this backdrop, experts from JP Morgan believe that in 2024 the main cryptocurrency will trade around $45,000, considering this price as an upper limit indicating the asset's limited potential.
 

2025 and Beyond: $1,000,000 to $10,000,000. Who Predicts Higher?

"Looking too far into the future is not far-sighted," a saying attributed to Sir Winston Churchill, the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom during 1940-1945 and 1951-1955. While we might heed the advice of the esteemed British leader, some influencers still dare to make long-term predictions without fearing being seen as short-sighted.

An average result from a survey of 29 experts conducted by Finder.com indicates that BTC's price may reach $100,000 not in 2024, but only by the end of 2025, and could ascend to $280,000 by the end of 2030. An analyst known as Trader Tardigrade believes that bitcoin is following the same price structure as it did from 2013 to 2018. If his model is accurate, the beginning price "boom" could lead to bitcoin rising to $400,000 by 2026.

Venture capitalist Tim Draper, a third-generation venture capitalist and co-founder of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, is optimistic about 2025. He believes that the halving will significantly impact the main cryptocurrency's price, eventually reaching $250,000. Previously, he predicted that BTC would hit this mark by the end of 2022. When his prediction did not materialize, he extended the timeline to mid-2023. Now, Draper has revised his forecast again, stating with certainty that the main cryptocurrency will reach the targeted price by the end of June 2025. According to him, one of the growth drivers will be the adoption of BTC by women, suggesting that housewives using bitcoin for shopping could become a significant factor in the coin's widespread adoption.

Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, believes that the demand for alternative financial instruments will continue to grow, with bitcoin being one of these instruments. He predicts that in the long term, bitcoin's price could reach $500,000. Doubling this estimate, Arthur Hayes, former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, and Max Keiser, a former trader and TV host who is now an advisor to the president of El Salvador, have both cited a figure of $1 million per coin. Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, has a more polarized view, stating that "bitcoin will either plummet to zero or skyrocket to $1 million."

Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, forecasts a significant increase in the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies, reaching $25 trillion by 2030, which is an increase of more than 2100%. ARK Invest's baseline scenario envisages bitcoin's price rising to $650,000 during this period, while a more optimistic scenario projects a climb to $1,500,000. Yassine Elmandjra, an analyst at ARK Invest and a colleague of Wood, acknowledged that such a prediction for the coin's growth may seem improbable, but added that it is "quite reasonable" when considering the history of cryptocurrency development.

Larry Lepard, Managing Partner at the Boston-based investment company Equity Management Associates, has also provided a long-term forecast. He believes that over the next decade, the dollar will devalue, and people will increasingly invest in cryptocurrencies, gold, and real estate. Given bitcoin's limited supply, the digital asset will become a highly sought-after investment tool and will benefit from the collapse of fiat currency. "I believe the price of bitcoin will rise sharply. I think it will first reach $100,000, then $1 million, and eventually rise to $10 million per coin. I'm confident that my grandchildren will be shocked at how wealthy people who own just one bitcoin will become," Lepard stated.

The Artificial Intelligence ChatGPT offers a slightly more modest scenario. It suggests that the main cryptocurrency might rise to $500,000 by 2028, reach $1 million by 2032, and escalate to $5 million by 2050. However, this AI prediction comes with several conditions. Such growth is possible only if: cryptocurrency is widely adopted; bitcoin becomes a popular means for capital saving; and the coin is integrated into various financial systems. If these conditions are not met, then, according to AI calculations, by 2050, the value of the coin could range from $20,000 to $500,000.
 

Funeral Squad for Bitcoin: $0.0000. Who Predicts Lower?

According to Newton's Third Law, every action has an equal and opposite reaction. Although this law was formulated in 1689, it seems to apply even to 21st-century cryptocurrencies. If there are those eager to drive up the value of bitcoin, there will inevitably be others prepared to bury it deeper.

Warren Buffett, the billionaire and stock market legend, famously described bitcoin as "rat poison squared." His steadfast partner, Charles Munger, Vice Chairman of the holding company Berkshire Hathaway, is equally critical. Despite turning 100 years old on January 1, 2024 (congratulations to him), he continues to actively oppose this digital "evil."

Munger has called on the U.S. authorities to destroy bitcoin, equating investment in it to gambling. In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, he stated that the cryptocurrency industry undermines the stability of the global financial sector and argued that BTC cannot be considered an asset class as it holds no intrinsic value. He believes that it should be subject to such stringent regulatory measures that would ultimately suffocate the industry. "It's the dumbest investment I've ever seen," the renowned investor exclaimed. "I'm not proud of my country for allowing this nonsense. It's laughable that someone buys it. It's not good. It's insane. It's only harmful." The billionaire labelled everyone who disagrees with him as idiots and branded bitcoin a "spoiled product" and a "venereal disease."

Steve Hanke, a professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University, has also criticized bitcoin, asserting that the fundamental value of the first cryptocurrency is zero. He has labelled BTC as an extremely speculative asset with no economic value or utility.

Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a gold enthusiast, believes that "there is nothing more inferior than cryptocurrencies" and that "bitcoin is nothing." He has compared holders of the asset to a cult. "Nobody needs bitcoin. People buy it only after being persuaded by others. Once they acquire [BTC], they immediately try to draw others into it. It's like a cult," Schiff wrote. Back in 2017, he predicted that the coin would soon become worthless. Despite the years that have passed, the entrepreneur has not changed his stance. He recently reiterated that "bitcoin's journey to zero just got a bit delayed. In the end, bitcoin will implode.".

Jamie Dimon, the head of the American banking giant JPMorgan, has also heavily criticized digital gold. During a CNBC broadcast, he expressed skepticism about the supposed 21 million coin limit of bitcoin's issuance. "How do you know? It might reach 21 million, and a picture of Satoshi [Nakamoto] might pop up and laugh at all of you," he speculated about the future.

Jim Cramer, host of CNBC's "Mad Money," also focused on the risks. He believes that no one really knows what the major players in the industry are hiding and that there are no guarantees of their honesty with their clients. According to him, any new scandal could cause a sharp decline in bitcoin's value, putting investor assets at risk. Referring to the opinion of Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist & broker at DeCarley Trading, he recommended staying away from virtual currencies.

Discussing the prospects of the flagship cryptocurrency, Dieter Wermuth, economist and partner at Wermuth Asset Management, stated that the economy would be better and simpler without bitcoin. In his view, it makes sense to abandon bitcoin altogether: it could be beneficial for overall prosperity, as investments in cryptocurrency are wasteful and divert funds from overall economic growth. Moreover, bitcoin creates social inequality, facilitates money laundering, tax evasion, and is highly energy-intensive due to mining. Dieter Wermuth even called bitcoin "the main killer of the climate."

Jenny Johnson, CEO of the investment firm Franklin Templeton, which manages assets worth $1.5 trillion, also expressed scepticism about the primary cryptocurrency. She claimed that bitcoin is the biggest distraction from real innovation. The head of Franklin Templeton is convinced that bitcoin can never become a global currency, as the U.S. government will not allow this to happen. "I can tell you that if bitcoin becomes so significant that it threatens the dollar as the reserve currency, the U.S. will limit its use," she stated.

Indeed, Mrs. Johnson's statement did not come out of nowhere. Over the past year, there has been a lot of discussion about regulatory pressure on the crypto industry, legal disputes, and astronomical fines. Gary Gensler, Chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) compared the current state of the crypto industry to the  Earnings-price ratio early 20th century. At that time, the agency undertook stringent measures, which he believes are necessary now to intimidate businessmen and keep the industry in check. John Reed Stark, a former SEC official, echoes Gensler's sentiments. "Cryptocurrency prices are rising for two reasons," he explains, "firstly, due to gaps in regulation and potential market manipulation; secondly, because of the possibility to sell inflated, overvalued cryptocurrency to an even bigger fool."

Such statements are not only made by U.S. authorities but also by many other government representatives worldwide. For instance, the European Central Bank declared in December 2022 that bitcoin had lost its relevance. However, the ECB later revised its assessment, noting that cryptocurrency could still serve as an alternative to fiat currency.

***

It's noteworthy that since the inception of bitcoin, its demise has been proclaimed 474 times. The death counter of the main cryptocurrency is maintained on the platform 99bitcoins. This information resource tallies what are known as "bitcoin obituaries" – statements from notable individuals, news portals, and other media outlets with significant readership, unequivocally asserting that the asset has depreciated or is about to depreciate. In 2021, there were 47 such "obituaries," in 2022 – 27, and in 2023, BTC was declared "dead" only seven times. This figure is the lowest in the last decade, indicating that bitcoin is not only alive but also continues to thrive, despite the scepticism of its detractors.

To conclude this extensive overview, let's look at some interesting statistics. According to research by DocumentingBTC, an investor who put $100 into real gold exactly 10 years ago would now have only $134 in their account. Investing in Google would have yielded $504, Facebook – $818, Amazon – $830, Netflix – $1,040, and Microsoft – $1,111. Apple investors could have seen their investment grow to $1,208. Tesla claims the third spot on the profitability podium with an increase from $100 to $4,475. NVIDIA shares rank second, growing to $8,599. However, had you invested your $100 in digital gold, bitcoin, you would now have an impressive $25,600! This is why bitcoin is often hailed as the best investment of the decade. The conclusion is yours to draw.

Happy New Year!
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 03, 2024, 02:20:17 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– On Tuesday, January 2, the price of bitcoin rose above $45,860 as investors anticipated a statement from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. The last time BTC traded at this level was in April 2022.
Analysts at Matrixport suggest that the primary cryptocurrency could surpass $50,000 in the coming days. The main drivers of the digital gold's price increase will be the potential approval of spot BTC-ETFs, demand from financial institutions, and a shortage of coin supply in the market. "Institutional investors cannot afford to miss another potential rally. Therefore, they must buy immediately," the experts shared their forecast. In their view, regulators might announce the approval of new exchange-traded products "today or tomorrow, ahead of most investors' expectations." This will serve as a powerful factor in the price growth of the leading cryptocurrency.

– Wall Street investment giants BlackRock, Fidelity, and Invesco, along with Valkyrie and Bitwise, companies specializing in crypto asset operations, have announced in their press releases their readiness to launch spot ETFs on bitcoin. Bitwise and BlackRock, in particular, have formed initial capital for trading operations, amounting to $200 million and $10 million respectively. These companies have disclosed key details of their future trades, including trading chains, partnerships with key brokerage firms, and the commission rates their potential ETF partners will charge clients, pending the green light from the SEC.
Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg ETF analyst, opines that the investment corporations' proposals are largely similar. He anticipates that the competitive battle among BTC-ETF issuers will primarily revolve around fee structures, brand history, and customer preferences.
MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor previously remarked that the approval of BTC-ETF, which the entire crypto industry is eagerly awaiting, could be the most significant event for the American stock market in the last three decades.

– Analysts at the platform Immunefi have calculated that, compared to 2022, when the total stolen funds amounted to $3.9 billion, this year's figures have more than halved – by 54.2%. In total, due to hacks and fraud, the crypto industry suffered losses of $1.8 billion in 2023. Researchers have tallied that $1.69 billion in losses were attributed to 219 hacking attacks, and about $103,000 was lost in 100 cases of fraud. The biggest losses were incurred in November ($343 million), September ($340 million), and July ($320 million).
It's worth noting that the Immunefi project manages a fund of $135 million for payments to "white hat" hackers who find vulnerabilities in decentralized financial platforms (DeFi).

– The new President of Argentina, Javier Milei, has proposed the legalization of digital asset circulation. He assured that once the bill is passed, citizens will be able to own and trade cryptocurrencies regardless of their origin and the actual location of coin storage. This digital currency legalization program is part of the economic reforms proposed by Javier Milei.
According to the new law, crypto assets that Argentine citizens voluntarily report by March 31 will be subject to a 5% tax rate. By November 30, the tax level will be increased to 15%. Subsequently, if the fiscal authorities discover undeclared cryptocurrency assets, the settlement of requirements may be accompanied by the imposition of an increased tax rate and additional penal sanctions.

– While the majority of crypto market participants view the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs as an exclusively positive event for BTC, some experts believe otherwise. Analysts at the platform CryptoQuant think that with the launch of this financial instrument, the main cryptocurrency's price could drop from its current levels to $32,000. CryptoQuant noted that the market is factoring in a 90% probability of these ETFs being approved in early January. This reflects investors' optimism about the instrument but at the same time creates a classic "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario.
"The likelihood of the ETF approval becoming a catalyst for selling on the news is increasing, as market participants have a large unrealized profit. For short-term bitcoin holders, it's about 30%, which historically precedes a price correction," the company asserts.
Analysts also highlighted the influence of miners' behaviour. Due to the recent rise in BTC's price, they have shifted back to active selling and could significantly impact the dynamics of the main cryptocurrency's price.

– Cathy Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, also anticipates the possibility of a short-term sell-off. However, she remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of bitcoin. "A sell-off upon the news wouldn't be a surprise. But I believe it will be a very short-term phenomenon," Wood concluded. The head of ARK also noted the significant impact on bitcoin's price that even modest institutional investments can have. Her opinion is based on the scarcity of BTC and the expected inflow of institutional funds into the asset following the approval of ETFs.

– Analysts at the crypto exchange BIT share a similar view. They believe that bitcoin will continue to grow despite the "buy the rumor, sell the news" mindset. Even if the launch of the ETF causes a short-term sell-off, the combination of buyer pressure and the reduction in supply following the halving will lay the foundation for an extremely bullish 2024, potentially leading to the establishment of a new all-time high (ATH).

– Nic Carter, a financing partner at Castle Island Ventures, aligns with Cathy Wood's perspective. He believes that the ETF will unlock new classes of capital, fostering structural flows that will benefit the BTC market. Carter also thinks that in the context of the ETF launch, even the halving event seems less significant.

– Bitcoin futures indicate a bullish trend for the spring of 2024. Data from Binance futures contracts, expiring on March 29th, show that the annualized price of bitcoin is currently exceeding 20%. When futures trade at a higher price than the spot price, this situation is referred to as "contango". This condition suggests that the market expects the price of the asset to rise by the time the contract expires. According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, the difference between the spot price and the future price of BTC has increased to a record high level.

– A special agent from the FBI office in Alabama, USA, informed FOX News journalists that in 2023, around 300 state residents who fell victim to fraudulent cryptocurrency operations lost an average of $170,000 each. Matt Tootle observed that the greatest danger was posed by schemes involving the theft of digital assets using methods of so-called social engineering.
"We see cases where fraudsters spend months developing seemingly decent relationships with their future victims. For example, they create fake internet resources, showing victims the balance of their assets and the profitability of investing in cryptocurrencies. In some cases, to encourage the aggrieved investors to continue funding or make a large money transfer, fraudsters allow the victim to witness the 'effectiveness' of the crypto project and even withdraw a portion of the funds," the special agent explained. As a result, victims realize that they have lost all their money only weeks or months after the initial 'investment'.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a gold enthusiast, shared his forecast for 2024 in a series of tweets. "Investors are convinced that the Federal Reserve has managed to restore price stability without causing a recession, achieving a miraculous soft landing," wrote Schiff. "The big surprise in 2024 will be not only that the economy falls into a recession, but also that high inflation returns with doubled force."
"More importantly," Schiff notes, "technical indicators are collapsing... The Fed plans to lower interest rates, which will not only accelerate the downturn but also exert new upward pressure on inflation." In his view, "this not only indicates a weak and troubled economy but also foretells a significant fall in the dollar exchange rate and a rise in prices for imported goods in 2024." According to the financier, this situation does not bode well for bitcoin. Recall that Schiff has previously stated that there is "nothing more low-quality than cryptocurrencies," and "bitcoin is nothing." He also compared asset holders to a cult. "No one needs bitcoin. People buy it only after others convince them to do so. After acquiring [BTC], they immediately try to attract others to it." In his words, "it's like a cult."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 04, 2024, 10:22:46 AM
Top 3 NordFX Traders Earn Nearly $2.5 Million in 2023

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/04/sQuFP.jpeg)

NordFX, a brokerage firm, consistently releases statistics that detail the trading performance of its clients and the profits garnered by the company's IB partners. As a tradition, we compile a summary of the past year's outcomes at the beginning of January.

Throughout 2023, the composition of the top three leaders changed monthly, with traders from various countries and regions occupying places of honour on the podium, sometimes separated by tens of thousands of kilometres. Yet, all trading routes from Southeast, Central, and Western Asia, Africa, and Latin America converged at one point: the accounts of the brokerage firm NordFX.

In total, participants in the top three earned a substantial amount, nearly reaching the $2.5 million mark, with precise earnings of 2,494,466 USD. Notably, this was 1.73 times higher than the 2022 profit of 1,441,457 USD. This increase was partly due to improved trading conditions and services provided to NordFX clients. On average, a trader in the top three in 2023 earned about 69,290 USD per month.

Regarding the trading instruments favoured by the top three, gold (XAU/USD pair) was the clear leader. This aligns with the ancient Greek philosopher Plato's observation over 2000 years ago that like attracts like. The GBP/USD and EUR/USD pairs shared the second spot on the popularity pedestal. The bronze went to the Japanese yen (USD/JPY pair).

The earnings of the top three IB partners of NordFX in 2023 were also impressive, although naturally less than those of the traders. This is expected since the partners do not trade themselves but earn commission for clients they attract. The higher the clients' trading activity, the greater the partner's profit.

Potential earnings for a NordFX IB partner can be explored on the company's website. As for the actual earnings in 2023, the top three members collectively earned 272,607 USD. This means, on average, each partner earned about 7,572 USD per month.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 06, 2024, 10:04:52 AM
USD/JPY: 2023 Review and 2024 Forecast


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According to statistics, USD/JPY (US Dollar/Japanese Yen) is among the top three most traded currency pairs in the Forex market. This is facilitated by the pair's high liquidity, which ensures narrow spreads and favourable trading conditions. This means that traders can enter and exit positions with minimal costs. Additionally, the pair exhibits very high volatility, providing excellent profit opportunities, particularly in short-term and medium-term operations.


2023: The Yen of Unfulfilled Hopes

Throughout 2023, the Japanese currency steadily lost ground to the American dollar, and consequently, USD/JPY pair trended upwards. The yearly low was recorded on January 16th at 127.21, while the peak occurred on November 13th, with 1 dollar exchanging for 151.90 yen.

We have repeatedly mentioned that the weakening of the yen is due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) persistent ultra-dovish stance. Understandably, the negative interest rate of -0.1% cannot be attractive to market participants, especially against the backdrop of rising global yields and high rates set by the central banks of other leading countries. For investors, it was much more preferable to engage in carry trade: borrowing yen at low interest rates, then converting them to US dollars and Treasury bonds, which yielded a good profit due to the interest rate differential, all without any risk.

The monetary policy conducted by the Japanese Government and the Bank of Japan in recent years clearly indicates that their priority is not the yen's exchange rate, but economic indicators. Until mid-summer, to combat rising prices, regulators in the US, EU, and the UK tightened monetary policy and raised key interest rates. However, the BoJ ignored such methods, even though inflation in the country continued to rise. In June 2023, core inflation reached 4.2%, the highest in over four years. The only action the Bank of Japan took was to switch from strict to flexible targeting of the yield curve of Japanese government bonds, which did not aid the national currency.

Instead of tangible actions, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, and Japan's top currency diplomat Masato Kanda actively engaged in verbal interventions. They and other senior financial officials consistently assured in their speeches that everything was under control. They claimed that the Government was "closely monitoring currency movements with a high sense of urgency and immediacy" and that it "would take appropriate measures against excessive currency movements, not ruling out any options." Here are a few quotes from Kazuo Ueda's speech: "Japan's economy is recovering at a moderate pace. […] Uncertainty regarding Japan's economy is very high. […] The rate of inflation growth is likely to decrease and then accelerate again. [But] overall, Japan's financial system maintains stability." In short, interpret it as you wish.

Winter-Spring 2023. At the beginning of the year, many market participants took the promises to "take immediate measures" quite seriously. They were hopeful for a rate hike, which had been stuck at a negative level since 2016. In January, economists at Danske Bank forecasted that following a rate increase, the USD/JPY pair would fall to 125.00 within three months. Analysts from the French Societe Generale pointed to the same target. Their colleagues from ANZ Bank did not rule out the possibility of the pair reaching around 124.00 by the end of 2023. According to BNP Paribas' projections, a tightening of monetary policy was expected to stimulate the repatriation of funds by Japanese investors, potentially leading the USD/JPY pair to fall to 121.00 by year's end. Economists from the international financial group Nordea anticipated it dropping below 120.00. Potential significant strengthening of the Japanese currency was also suggested by strategists from Japan's MUFG Bank and HSBC, the largest bank in the UK.

Summer 2023. As time passed, nothing significant occurred. Commerzbank, a German bank, stated that the yen is a complex currency to understand, possibly due to the BoJ's monetary policy. Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), subtly hinted that it "would be appropriate to bring more flexibility to the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan."

In the first half of the summer, market participants began to adjust their forecasts. Economists at Danske Bank now predicted the USD/JPY rate to be below 130.00 over a 6-12 month horizon. A similar forecast was made by strategists at BNP Paribas, projecting a level of 130.00 by the end of 2023 and 123.00 by the end of 2024. Societe Generale's July forecast also became more cautious. Analysing the pair's prospects, the bank's experts expected that the yield on 5-year U.S. Treasury bonds would fall to 2.66% within a year, allowing the pair to break below 130.00. If the yield on Japanese government bonds (JGB) remains at the current level, the pair might even drop to 125.00.

Wells Fargo's prediction, one of the 'big four' banks in the US, was considerably more modest, with its specialists targeting a USD/JPY rate of 136.00 by the end of 2023 and 129.00 by the end of 2024. MUFG Bank declared that the Bank of Japan might only decide on its first rate hike in the first half of 2024. Only then would a shift towards strengthening the yen occur. Regarding the recent change in yield curve control policy, MUFG believed it was insufficient by itself to trigger a recovery of the Japanese currency. Danske Bank stated that expecting any steps from the BoJ before the second half of 2024 was not advisable.

Autumn-Winter 2023. No one held any hope that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would change its monetary policy before the end of the year. However, market participants started fearing that the weak yen might eventually mobilize Japanese officials to move from verbal interventions to actual actions.

The USD/JPY pair was eagerly racing towards the critical mark of 150.00. Market participants vividly remembered that in the fall of 2022, when the pair reached a 32-year high at 152.00, Japanese authorities initiated financial interventions. Adding fuel to the fire was a report by Reuters, stating that Japan's chief currency diplomat Masato Kanda had announced the banking authorities were considering intervention to end "speculative" movements.

Then, on October 3, as the quotes slightly exceeded the "magical" height of 150.00, reaching a peak of 150.15, what everyone had been anticipating for so long finally happened. In just a few minutes, the USD/JPY pair plummeted nearly 300 points, halting the slide at 147.28. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, refrained from commenting on the event. He vaguely stated that "there are numerous factors determining whether movements in the currency market are excessive." However, many market participants believed this to be a real currency intervention. Although, of course, one cannot rule out the mass automatic triggering of stop-orders at the breakthrough of the key level of 150.00, as such "black swan" events have been observed before.

Whatever the case, the intervention did not significantly help the Japanese currency, and 40 days later, it was trading again above 150.00, at the level of 151.90. It was at this moment, on November 13, that the trend reversed, and the strengthening of the yen became consistent. This happened a couple of weeks after the peak in yields of the ten-year U.S. Treasury bonds when markets became convinced that their decline had become a trend. It's important to recall that there's traditionally an inverse correlation between these securities and the yen. If the yield on Treasuries rises, the yen falls against the dollar, and vice versa: if the yield on the securities falls, the yen strengthens.

The primary reason for the resurgence of the Japanese currency was growing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would finally abandon its negative interest rate policy, possibly sooner than expected. Rumours suggested that regional banks in the country, lobbying for an abandonment of yield curve targeting policy, were exerting significant pressure on the regulator.

The yen also benefited from market confidence that the key interest rates of the Fed and the ECB had plateaued, with only a decrease expected thereafter. As a result of this divergence, it was anticipated that investors would unwind their carry trade strategy and reduce the yield spreads between Japanese government bonds and those of the U.S. and Eurozone. According to most analysts, all these factors were expected to bring capital back to the yen.

The fourth quarter's low was recorded on December 28 at 140.24, after which USD/JPY ended the year 2023 at a rate of 141.00.

 
2024 – 2028: Fresh Forecasts

After three years of sharp decline, the yen's value might finally be turning around. This is the view held by market participants surveyed by Bloomberg. Overall, respondents expect the Japanese currency to strengthen next year, with the average forecast for USD/JPY pointing to a level of 135.00 by the end of 2024.

Several banks anticipate the pair trading within the range of 125.00-135.00 (Goldman Sachs at 130.00, Barclays at 135.00, UBS at 132.00, MUFG at 125.00). Currency strategists at HSBC believe the US dollar is currently overvalued and will return to its fair value over the next five years due to declining yields in the US and rising stock markets. HSBC experts expect the exchange rate of the pair to reach 120.00 by mid-2024 and drop to 108.00 by 2028. According to ING Group's forecasts, the rate will fall to around 120.00 only in 2025.

However, there are also those who predict further decline for the Japanese currency and a continued 'flight to the moon' for the pair. For instance, analysts at the Economic Forecasting Agency (EFA) expect USD/JPY to reach 166.00 by the end of 2024, 185.00 by the end of 2025, and 188.00 by the end of 2026. Wallet Investor's forecast suggests that the pair will continue its upward rally, reaching a mark of 208.10 by 2028.

In conclusion, for those who favour graphical analysis, it's noteworthy to mention that the behaviour of USD/JPY throughout 2023 almost perfectly aligns with Elliott Wave Theory. If in 2024 the pair continues to follow the tenets of this theory, we can first expect a bullish corrective wave B. This will be followed by a bearish impulse wave C, which could lead the pair to the levels anticipated by proponents of a strengthening Japanese currency.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 10, 2024, 03:28:43 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– A real drama unfolded in the cryptocurrency market after hackers breached the social network X (formerly Twitter) account of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and posted a fake tweet about the approval of the long-awaited bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). This statement caught investors off guard as it was expected that this important decision by the SEC would only be published on Wednesday, January 10. The market reacted instantly, and the price of the main cryptocurrency soared to $48,000.
The head of the regulatory body, Gary Gensler, urgently published a denial, stating: "The SEC's Twitter account was hacked, and an unauthorized tweet was published. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of bitcoin spot exchange-traded products." Following this message, the BTC price reversed and dropped to around $45,000.

– As anticipation for a positive decision from the U.S. SEC grew, the number of Google search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" reached a record level. Last week, the percentage index exceeded the 50 mark, and this week it hit the maximum of 100 points. Interestingly, the search queries for "Bitcoin ETF" predominantly come not from the U.S. but from other countries. Canada leads with 100, followed by Hong Kong (86) and Singapore (85). Switzerland (73) ranks fourth, and Germany (72) is fifth among the most interested countries. As for the U.S. itself, it holds the 9th place with 39 percentage points.

– SEC Chair Gary Gensler warned on January 8 about the volatile nature of crypto assets and also reminded of the risks associated with crypto service providers. His recommendations followed amidst firms submitting updated applications for launching bitcoin exchange-traded funds (BTC-ETFs). Perianne Boring, the founder and president of the U.S. Chamber of Digital Commerce, believes that the SEC could delay its decision. In her view, amendments to these applications could be the reason for postponing the deadlines. Consequently, the Commission would need more time to coordinate the changes and might not complete all procedures even by the end of the week.
Perianne Boring hopes she is wrong. However, she admits that Gary Gensler and members of the expert commission may have received another chance to delay the final decision. The SEC, she is confident, has enough tools at its disposal to block the market entry of this exchange product altogether and is not willing to give up its position without a fight. Markus Thielen, an analyst at Matrixport, also believes that the regulator may avoid making a positive decision.

– Television host and founder of the hedge fund Cramer & Co., Jim Cramer, stated that the price of bitcoin has peaked and further growth should not be expected. He made this statement at the moment when bitcoin surpassed the $47,000 mark. Social media users and the crypto community consider Cramer a unique "indicator," whose predictions in the vast majority of cases... do not come true.

– Macro-strategist Henrik Zeberg expects a fantastic bull market in 2024. According to him, the dynamics of digital assets this year, driven by the arrival of new players, will be "parabolic." "[Bitcoin] will be absolutely explosive: it will go vertical. I think we will reach at least $115,000. That's my most conservative forecast. The $150,000 level is also quite achievable, and I see the potential for $250,000," notes the economist.
Zeberg added that thanks to the entry of institutional and traditional investors following the potential approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the first four months of 2024 could be "incredibly impressive" for the crypto market. Everyone who did not participate in the first or second bull cycles will now say, "Oh, I missed the first two times, but I will be in this one." However, the expert believes that traditional markets are facing "the worst crash since 1929," when the Great Depression began in the U.S.

– An unknown user sent on January 5 nearly 27 BTC (worth about $1.2 million at the time) to the wallet of bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto. This sender's address received funds from three different sources, the majority originating from a wallet registered with the cryptocurrency exchange Binance.
The genesis wallet of Satoshi Nakamoto, as of the time of writing, contains 99.67 BTC, which is valued at around $4.4 million. These assets have remained unmoved since the disappearance of the bitcoin creator in December 2010. Coinbase director Conor Grogan commented, "Either Satoshi has awakened, bought 27 BTC on Binance and transferred them to his own wallet, or someone just burned a million dollars." He also speculated that it might be a form of "strange marketing" related to the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF.

– Vytautas Kaseta, President of the Crypto Economy Organisation, has stated that while the crypto community celebrates January 3 as the birthday of bitcoin, technically this is not correct. On that day, Satoshi Nakamoto generated the zero block of the BTC blockchain, known as Genesis. However, this block only served as a starting point for creating the network, as it contained no actual transaction data. The first non-zero block, mined on January 9, 2009, marks the beginning of real transactions in the network, when the blockchain came to life as a functional means of exchange. It's the creation of this block that should be considered the true birthday of the first cryptocurrency, Vytautas Kaseta believes.

– The approval of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on the first cryptocurrency represents a "turning point" for the asset's adoption. In this scenario, the price of bitcoin could soar to $200,000 by the end of 2025, according to analysts at Standard Chartered in a recent report. The bank estimates that by the end of 2024, exchange-traded funds will hold between 437,000 BTC and 1.32 million BTC. This is equivalent to a market inflow of $50-100 billion.
The analysts noted that exchange-traded products related to gold exhibited a similar dynamic, but only seven to eight years after their launch. "Bitcoin will see the same growth as a result of the approval of a spot ETF in the U.S., but we will see it materialize over a shorter period (one to two years), given the rapid development of the crypto market," explained Standard Chartered.

– Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya echoed a similar sentiment, believing that 2024 could be the most important year for the first cryptocurrency. The billionaire noted in a new episode of the All-In podcast that the approval of a large number of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) will likely be a "game changer for BTC." This could ultimately lead to the widespread adoption of the asset. Palihapitiya added that in this case, by the end of 2024, bitcoin will become a part of the traditional financial lexicon.

– Renowned analyst PlanB believes that the value of bitcoin could soon reach a range between $100,000 and $1 million. He explained that he does not expect a fall in BTC price because its level of adoption is only at 2-3%. According to the logistic S-curve of organizational development and Metcalfe's law, a decrease in asset profitability should not be expected while the level of adoption is below 50%. Therefore, the analyst opines, "the main cryptocurrency can expect exponential growth for a couple more years."
It's worth noting that PlanB is the creator of the Stock to Flow model for predicting the course of bitcoin. This model reflects the ratio of the available supply of an asset to the volume of its production. Thus, according to this model, the current price of the coin for most holders exceeds the purchase cost, which is a "distinctive signal of bullish growth."

– According to CoinDesk, the 40-day correlation between digital gold and the Nasdaq 100 technology index has dropped to zero. Over the last four years, this price relationship was positive, ranging from moderate (0.15) to strong (0.8). The indicator reached its maximum value during the bear market of 2022. Now, bitcoin has completely "broken away" from the Nasdaq, thanks to expectations of the ETF launch.
Experts from Fairlead Strategies, interviewed by the publication, spoke about the prospects of maintaining the "independence" of digital gold in the near future. This nullification of correlation could signify the potential use of the first cryptocurrency as a means of diversifying investment portfolios. "We believe that the price correlation will remain low in the coming months, given the potential approval of a spot bitcoin ETF and the halving in April. Furthermore, risk assets generally exhibit lower correlation in bull markets compared to bear markets," the experts explained.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 15, 2024, 07:49:43 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 15 – 19, 2024


EUR/USD: Market Anticipates Federal Reserve Rate Cut

We published our global forecast for EUR/USD for the upcoming year in the last week of 2023. Now, moving from long-term projections, we return to our traditional weekly reviews, which have been conducted by the NordFX analytical group for over a decade.

The main event of the past week was undoubtedly the U.S. inflation data. The figures released on Thursday, January 11, showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a consensus forecast of 3.2% and a previous value of 3.1%. On a monthly basis, consumer inflation also increased, registering 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% and a previous figure of 0.1%. On the other hand, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and oil prices, decreased to 3.9% from a previous value of 4.0% (year-on-year).

Recall that with his dovish remarks at the December press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell created the impression that he is no longer the staunch inflation fighter he appeared to be earlier. This suggests that the U.S. monetary authorities will now respond more flexibly to changes in this indicator. Consequently, the mixed CPI data further convinced market participants that the Fed will begin to ease its policy by the end of Q1 2024. According to CME Fedwatch, the likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut in March increased to 68% from 61% prior to the release of the statistics. Meanwhile, strategists at the largest banking group of the Netherlands, ING, expect a significant weakening of the dollar towards the end of Q2: that's when they anticipate EUR/USD will start its rally to 1.1500. Until then, in their view, the currency market will remain quite unstable.

Regarding the Eurozone, statistics released on Monday, January 8, indicated that the situation in the consumer market is bad, but not as dire as expected. Retail sales showed a decline of -1.1% year-on-year. This figure, although higher than the previous value of -0.8%, was significantly below the forecast of -1.5%.

In this context, the statement by European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel appeared rather hawkish. She opined that economic sentiment indicators in the Eurozone have likely reached their nadir, while the labour market remains stable. Schnabel also did not rule out the possibility of a soft landing for the European economy and a return to the inflation target of 2.0% by the end of 2024. According to her, this is still achievable, but it would require the ECB to maintain a high interest rate. This contrast between the hawkish stance of the pan-European mega-regulator and the dovish comments of its overseas colleagues supported the euro, preventing EUR/USD from falling below 1.0900.

Data on industrial inflation in the U.S., released at the end of the workweek on Friday, January 12, also showed a decline in this indicator, but it did not have a strong impact on the quotes. The Producer Price Index (PPI) was 1.8% year-on-year (forecast 1.9%, previous value 2.0%), and the monthly PPI, like in November, recorded a decrease of -0.1% (forecast +0.1%).

Following the release of this data, EUR/USD closed the workweek at 1.0950.

Currently, experts' opinions regarding the near future of the pair provide no clear direction, as they are evenly split: 50% voted for a strengthening of the dollar, and 50% sided with the euro. Technical analysis indicators also appear quite neutral. Among trend indicators on D1, the balance of power between red and green is 50% to 50%. Among oscillators, 25% have turned green, another 35% are in a neutral grey, and the remaining 40% are red, with a quarter of them signalling that the pair is oversold. The nearest support for the pair is in the zone of 1.0890-1.0925, followed by 1.0865, 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0515, 1.0450. Bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1185-1.1140, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

Next week, notable economic events include the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for Germany on Tuesday, January 16, and for the Eurozone on Wednesday, January 17. Additionally, Wednesday will bring statistics on the state of the U.S. retail market. On Thursday, January 18, the usual figures for initial jobless claims in the United States will be released. The same day, we will learn the value of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, and on Friday, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index will be published. Furthermore, traders should be aware that Monday, January 15, is a public holiday in the U.S. as the country celebrates Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
 

GBP/USD: Pound Retains Potential for Growth

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/15/3vkTj.jpeg)

Before the New Year holidays, GBP/USD reached its highest level since August 2023, touching 1.2827. It then fell by more than 200 points to the lower line of the ascending channel and, bouncing off it, began to rise again. At the time of writing this forecast, it is difficult to confidently say that the pound has returned to a firm upward trend. The dynamics of the last four weeks can be interpreted as a sideways trend. A similar pattern, specifically in the 1.2600-1.2800 zone, was observed in August. Back then, it was merely a temporary respite before the pair's fall continued with renewed vigour. It's possible that we are witnessing a similar scenario now, but with a positive sign instead of a negative one. If this is the case, we could see GBP/USD in the 1.3000-1.3150 zone during the first quarter.

Last week, the British currency was bolstered by data on inflation in the U.S. and forecasts regarding a dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve. The UK's Office for National Statistics (ONS) also supported the pound, reporting on Friday, January 12, that the country's GDP in November grew by 0.3% month-on-month, against a forecast of 0.2% and a decrease of -0.3% recorded in October. Additionally, the volume of manufacturing output rose by 0.4% month-on-month in November (forecast 0.3%, previous value – a decline of -1.2%). At the same time, the British FTSE 100 index rose by 0.8%, reflecting the market's optimistic mood and its participants' appetite for risk.

GBP/USD concluded the week at 1.2753. According to economists at Scotiabank, for the pound to maintain its bullish momentum, it needs to confidently overcome resistance in the 1.2800-1.2820 zone. "However," they write, "the absence of a breakthrough in the 1.2800 area may begin to weary [market participants], and the price actions over the last month are still shaping up as potentially bearish."

Despite the pound retaining potential for growth in the medium term, the experts' forecast for the coming days leans towards the dollar. 60% of them voted for a fall in the pair, 25% for its rise, and 15% preferred to remain neutral. In contrast to the specialists, the indicators almost unanimously favour the British currency: among the oscillators on D1, 90% are on the side of the pound (with 10% neutral), and among trend indicators, all 100% are pointing upwards. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2720, 1.2650, 1.2600-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085. In the event of a rise, it will face resistance at levels 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

For the upcoming week, notable dates include Tuesday, January 16, when a significant batch of labour market data from the United Kingdom will be released. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be published on Wednesday, January 17, and retail sales figures in the UK will be available on Friday, January 19.
 
continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 15, 2024, 07:52:28 AM
USD/JPY: U.S. CPI Outperforms Japan's CPI

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is considering lowering its inflation forecast for the 2024 fiscal year to around the mid-2% range in its upcoming quarterly report, set to be published on January 23. This news was reported by the Jiji agency, citing Reuters, on Thursday, January 11. Japan's real wages fell by 3.0%. With a sharp slowdown in wage growth, Tokyo's Consumer Price Index (CPI) was below forecasts, dropping from 2.7% to 2.4%. Interpreting these data, analysts have begun to speculate that the Bank of Japan might delay tightening its ultra-loose monetary policy. Following this logic, traders were advised to open long positions in the USD/JPY pair.

However, after reaching a peak of 146.41 on January 11, the pair reversed and began to decline: the decrease in U.S. inflation turned out to be much more significant for market participants than the decrease in Japan's inflation. The fact that the interest rate on the yen will remain at a negative level of -0.1% is not so crucial. What is more important is that the rate on the dollar could soon drop by 0.25%.

Mathias Cormann, the Secretary-General of The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), recently stated that "the Bank of Japan has opportunities to further consider the level of tightening of its monetary policy." However, we have already heard many such vague statements and opinions. In our view, it is much more interesting to present the technical analysis of the current situation performed by economists at the French bank Societe Generale.

"They write that USD/JPY sharply recovered after forming an intermediate low around 140.20 at the end of last month. It has returned to the 200-Day Moving Average (200-DMA) and approached the October low of 146.60-147.40, which acts as an intermediate resistance zone. After an unsuccessful attempt to break through the 50-day moving average at the level of 146.41 on Thursday, January 11, the pair is retreating, indicating the start of an initial pullback. "It will be interesting to see if the pair can hold the 200-DMA around 143.40. Failure would mean the risk of another decline towards 140.20-139.60. A breakthrough above 146.60-147.40 is necessary to confirm the continuation of the rebound [upwards]," they believe at Societe Generale.

USD/JPY ended last week at 144.90. (Interestingly, the current dynamics fully align with the wave analysis we discussed in our previous review). In the near term, 40% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the yen, another 40% are in favour of the dollar, and 20% hold a neutral position. Regarding the trend indicators on D1, 60% are pointing north, while the remaining 40% are looking south. Among the oscillators, 70% are coloured green (with 15% in the overbought zone), 15% are red, and the remaining 15% are neutral grey. The nearest support level is in the zone of 143.75-144.05, followed by 142.20, 141.50, 140.25-140.60, 138.75-139.05, 137.25-137.50, and 136.00. Resistance levels are located at 145.30, 146.00, 146.90, 147.50, 148.40, 149.80-150.00, 150.80, and 151.70-151.90.

No significant events concerning the Japanese economy are expected in the coming week
 

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Day X Has Arrived. What's Next?

What many have long talked about and dreamed of has finally come to pass. As expected, on January 10, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a batch of 11 applications from investment companies to launch spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on Bitcoin. As a result, ETFs from Grayscale, as well as from Bitwise and Hashdex, were admitted to the NYSE Arca stock exchange. BlackRock and Valkyrie funds are being launched on Nasdaq. CBOE will host ETFs from VanEck, Wisdom Tree, Fidelity, Franklin Templeton, as well as joint funds from ARK Invest/21 Shares and Invesco/Galaxy.

Contrary to expectations, immediately after the approval, the BTC/USD pair's rate rose only to $47,652 instead of a jubilant surge. The reason for such a tepid reaction is that the market had already priced in this event. Moreover, the day before, hackers breached the SEC's account on social network X (formerly Twitter) and published a fake tweet about the approval of the long-awaited BTC-ETFs. The market then reacted to this false statement with a rise in the main cryptocurrency to the $48,000 mark. After the refutation, the price fell back down, and on January 10, it merely repeated what had happened the day before.

It's important to note that the SEC was not particularly pleased with its decision to approve the applications. The first application for a spot ETF was filed back in 2013 by the Winklevoss brothers (Cameron & Tyler Winklevoss) and was rejected in 2017. Approximately six years have passed since then, but the regulator's aversion to cryptocurrencies remained, and the current approval was granted somewhat reluctantly and under pressure. According to a press release by the agency's chair Gary Gensler, the Commission's decision was based on a ruling by the appellate court in Grayscale's lawsuit regarding the transformation of a trust fund into a spot ETF. The court ruled in favour of Grayscale, stating that the SEC “failed to adequately justify its reasons for refusal.” After this, delaying the approval of similar products was no longer sensible.

However, on January 10, Gensler did not hold back in his negative assessment. "Despite the approval of spot BTC-ETFs," he noted in the press release, "we do not endorse bitcoin. Investors should consider the numerous risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to the cryptocurrency. Bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that is also used for illegal activities, including ransomware, money laundering, evasion of sanctions, and financing of terrorism. Today, we approved the listing and trading of certain ETP spot bitcoin shares, but we did not approve Bitcoin," concluded the SEC head, making it clear that the battle with digital assets is far from over.

Discussing the short-term perspective, many analysts did not anticipate a significant rally, pointing to $48,500 as a key resistance level. They proved correct: after BTC/USD breached this level on September 11, a "sell the news" phenomenon ensued – a mass closure of buy-orders and profit-taking. Consequently, the price sharply retraced. According to Coinglass, the total sum of liquidations for all cryptocurrency positions was approximately $209 million.

Regarding the long-term impact of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, time is needed for a full assessment. About a week is necessary for the funds to commence operations on exchanges, with investment volume data expected around mid-February. If we compare with ETFs for other products, approximately $1.2 trillion has been invested in them over the past two years. Seven years after the 2004 launch of physical gold ETFs, the price of this metal quadrupled, and now over $100 billion is held in gold ETFs.

Concerning digital gold, analysts at Standard Chartered bank consider the approval of bitcoin ETFs a pivotal moment for the asset's acceptance. "Bitcoin will likely see growth akin to gold-linked exchange-traded products," they write. "But this is expected to materialize over a shorter period: not in seven to eight years, as was the case with gold, but within one to two years, considering the swift evolution of the crypto market." The bank forecasts bitcoin's price potentially reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025. Standard Chartered estimates that by the end of 2024, exchange-traded funds could hold between 437,000 BTC and 1.32 million BTC, equating to a market inflow of $50-100 billion, creating a significant price impulse for the primary cryptocurrency.

Venture investor Chamath Palihapitiya also expresses a comparable sentiment. He believes that 2024 could emerge as a landmark year for bitcoin. The billionaire highlighted that the approval of numerous spot exchange-traded ETFs is likely to "revolutionize BTC," potentially leading to its widespread adoption. Palihapitiya remarked that in such a scenario, by the end of 2024, bitcoin could become a staple in traditional financial parlance.

According to CoinDesk data, the 40-day correlation between digital gold and the Nasdaq 100 technology index has dropped to zero. Over the past four years, this price correlation has been positive, varying from moderate (0.15) to strong (0.8), reaching its peak during the bear market of 2022. Now, bitcoin has completely "decoupled" from Nasdaq. This correlation reset may signify bitcoin's potential as an attractive diversification tool for investment portfolios, thereby enhancing its value.

Macro-strategist Henrik Zeberg also anticipates a phenomenal bull market in 2024. He expects the dynamics of digital assets this year, driven by the entry of new players, to be "parabolic." "[Bitcoin] is going to be absolutely explosive – it will shoot up vertically. I think we will reach at least $115,000. That's my most conservative forecast. The $150,000 level is also feasible, and I see the potential for $250,000," the economist notes.

Zeberg added that the first four months of 2024 could be "incredibly impressive" for the crypto market, thanks to institutional and traditional investors entering after the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. Those who missed out on the first or second bull cycle will now say, "Oh, I missed the first two times, but I'll be in this one." However, he believes that traditional markets are facing "the worst crash since 1929," when the Great Depression began in the U.S.

Renowned analyst known as PlanB believes that the price of bitcoin could soon reach between $100,000 and 1 million. He explains that he doesn't expect a BTC price drop, as its adoption level is currently only 2-3%. According to the logistic S-curve of organizational development and Metcalfe's law, a decrease in asset profitability should not be expected while the adoption level is below 50%. Therefore, the analyst opines, "the main cryptocurrency is set for exponential growth for a couple more years."

Indeed, alongside the optimists, there are many who forecast a downward trend. We discussed some of these views two weeks ago in a special review titled "Forecast 2024: Bitcoin Yesterday, Tomorrow, and the Day After." Currently, it's worth noting the recent statement from TV host and founder of hedge fund Cramer & Co., Jim Cramer. He asserted that bitcoin has reached its peak and further growth should not be expected. This statement was made as bitcoin surpassed the $47,000 mark. Observing bitcoin's performance on January 11-12, it raises the question: "Could Jim Cramer be right?"

As of the evening of January 12, when this review was written, BTC/USD is experiencing a significant drop, trading around $43,000. The total market capitalization of the crypto market is at $1.70 trillion, up from $1.67 trillion a week ago. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index over the week has decreased from 72 to 71 points and remains in the Greed zone.

Contrary to bitcoin's performance, the leading altcoin exhibited a much more impressive growth last week. Starting from a level of $2,334 on January 10, ETH/USD reached a weekly high of $2,711 on January 12, showcasing a 16% increase. Interestingly, this surge occurred after the SEC Chairman's statement emphasizing that the regulator's positive decision exclusively pertained to exchange-traded products based on bitcoin. Gary Gensler clarified that this decision "in no way signals readiness to approve listing standards for crypto assets that are securities." It's worth noting that the regulator still regards only bitcoin as a commodity, while considering "the overwhelming majority of crypto assets as investment contracts (i.e., securities)." Therefore, the hope for the imminent arrival of spot ETFs with Ethereum and other altcoins is unfounded.

Yet, against this rather grim backdrop, ETH suddenly soared. The market's reaction is indeed inscrutable. However, towards the end of Friday, January 12, Ethereum followed bitcoin in a downturn, welcoming Saturday in the $2,500 zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 17, 2024, 12:02:12 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/17/3hKU1.jpeg)

– The long-standing regulatory saga surrounding the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs finally concluded last week, with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) issuing the corresponding approval. Against this backdrop, the quotations momentarily surged to $49,000. However, the cryptocurrency subsequently depreciated by nearly 15%. Experts attribute this to an overbought condition or what is known as "market overheating," as reported by Cointelegraph. The SEC's positive decision had already been factored into the market price, and many investors now decided to realize profits rather than purchasing the more expensive asset.
Cointelegraph experts also noted that bitcoin ETFs have already attracted over $1.25 billion. On just the first day, the trading volume of these new financial market instruments reached $4.6 billion. However, the Bitcoin Dominance Index has been steadily declining. Over the past week, the index fell from 54.56% to 51.14%. Concurrently, many altcoins are exhibiting growth, indicating that investors are reallocating capital in favor of alternative coins.

– On the eve of the SEC's decision, some analysts had predicted a decline in bitcoin's price. For instance, analysts at CryptoQuant talked about a possible drop in quotations to $32,000. Other forecasts mentioned support levels at $42,000 and $40,000. "Bitcoin failed to overcome the $50,000 mark," Swissblock analysts write, raising the question of whether the leading cryptocurrency can regain the momentum it has lost.
Moreover, there is growing concern in the market due to the steady increase in the hash rate on the BTC network. This could lead to a scenario where miners start selling coins more actively. Recently, they have transferred bitcoins worth over $1 billion to centralized platforms, creating additional selling pressure and negatively impacting price dynamics.

– The international environmental organization Greenpeace criticized the SEC's decision regarding spot bitcoin ETFs. "Without significant changes in mining practices, this poses serious problems for our efforts to prevent the worst consequences of the climate crisis," the environmentalists stated. "As the price of bitcoin rises, so does its environmental impact. Miners consume more electricity […], which is predominantly generated from fossil fuels, leading to increased carbon dioxide emissions and water consumption," Greenpeace added.

– The entry of BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company in terms of managed assets, into the crypto market could bring significant changes. This financial giant has the potential to surpass MicroStrategy as the foremost holder of digital gold. BlackRock's bitcoin ETF remarkably attracted about $500 million, roughly equivalent to 12,000 BTC, in just two days. Continuing at this pace, BlackRock could become the largest holder of bitcoins by February 1.
For context, MicroStrategy is currently the top holder with 189,150 BTC, outpacing competitors like Marathon Digital and Tesla.

– Analysts at the investment bank Morgan Stanley have studied global market trends and concluded that the role of the US dollar as the cornerstone of the international financial system may be reevaluated. In their view, the growing interest in digital assets like bitcoin, the increasing circulation of stablecoins, and the real prospects of using Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) in cross-border transactions are changing the world.
"These innovations, though still in their infancy, open up possibilities for challenging the hegemony of the dollar. Macro-investors should consider how these digital assets, with their unique characteristics and increasing adoption, could alter the future dynamics of the dollar," Morgan Stanley strategists write.
Andrew Peel, Head of Digital Assets at Morgan Stanley, believes that the process of dedollarization in the global economy could significantly accelerate with the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs, as weekly inflows into these new products already exceed billions of dollars. The popularity of BTC has been consistently growing over the last 15 years, and currently, over 106 million people worldwide own the first cryptocurrency, Andrew Peel reminds us.

– Elizabeth Warren, a member of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, criticized the SEC for approving bitcoin ETFs. She believes that this decision could harm the country's financial system and investors.
Conversely, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, took an opposing stance. In an interview with Yahoo Finance, she refuted concerns that bitcoin could potentially displace the US dollar. The IMF chief stated that cryptocurrencies are an asset class, not money, and it's essential to make this distinction.
Ms. Georgieva also disagrees with industry participants who think the recent approval of spot BTC-ETFs will lead to the mass adoption of the first cryptocurrency. In her view, that day is still far off, so such discussions are not very meaningful. "I'm not in a hurry to convert my dollars into another currency. It doesn't mean that one shouldn't diversify investments. But I wouldn't worry about bitcoin competing with the dollar," added the IMF director.

– Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytics firm Fundstrat, expressed his opinion in an interview with CNBC that the first cryptocurrency's quotations could reach $100,000 - $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $500,000 in the next five years. "In the next five years, we'll have a limited supply, but with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, we potentially have enormous demand, so I think something around $500,000 is quite achievable within five years," the expert stated. He also highlighted the upcoming halving in the spring of 2024 as an additional growth factor.

– Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, stated on CNBC that under a bullish scenario, the first cryptocurrency could reach a price of $1.5 million by 2030. Experts at her firm believe that even under a bearish scenario, the value of the digital gold will increase to $258,500.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of the hedge fund SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director, provided another forecast. "If bitcoin is priced at $45,000 during the halving, then by mid-to-late 2025, it could be worth $170,000. Whatever the price [of bitcoin] is on the day of the halving in April, multiply it by four, and it will reach that figure in the next 18 months," said the SkyBridge founder in Davos, ahead of the World Economic Forum. Scaramucci also mentioned that it would likely take another eight to ten trading days to observe the impact of the new spot ETFs on the price of the first cryptocurrency.

– Prominent investor and founder of MN Trading Consultancy, Michael Van De Poppe, reported that his account on social network X (formerly Twitter) was hacked on January 16th. He addressed his 864,000 followers, emphasizing his hope that none of them followed the phishing links posted by the culprits. The investor is counting on the fact that trusting users have not lost their cryptocurrency funds.
Following this incident, Van De Poppe continued to publish market analysis as usual. He noted that "this will be the last 'easy' cycle for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies." According to him, the current phase will take a bit longer than before, but it will change the lives of many people on Earth. Regarding the current situation, the expert said that the price is stuck between several levels. Resistance is at $46,000, but the price is expected to test support in the range of $37,000 to $40,000.

– Economist David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, views buying bitcoin more as gambling than investing. His distrust in BTC is partly due to its high volatility, as evidenced by its price movements following the SEC's decision to approve the first spot BTC-ETFs in the USA.
Rosenberg believes that traditional stocks, by contrast, represent future cash flows of any company; bonds and savings accounts yield interest, and commodities have industrial applications, and their demand can be modelled, unlike bitcoin.

"If you want to get rich believing in cryptocurrencies, then add lottery tickets to your assets," advises the economist. He adds, "This and other tokens are examples of the 'greater fool theory' in action – people buy them not because they are inherently valuable, but because they hope to sell them at a profit to someone even more foolish."

– Amid growing market speculation in anticipation of the imminent launch of a spot ETF for Ethereum, analysts at the investment bank TD Cowen have stated that, according to the information they have, it is unlikely that the SEC will begin to consider applications for approval of this investment instrument in the first half of 2024. "We believe that before approving an ETH-ETF, the SEC will want to gain practical experience with similar investment instruments in bitcoin," commented Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen Washington Research Group. TD Cowen believes that the SEC will return to the discussion of ETFs on Ethereum only after the U.S. presidential elections, which are scheduled for November 2024.
Senior analyst at JP Morgan, Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou, also does not anticipate the swift approval of spot ETH-ETFs. According to Panagirtzoglou, for the SEC to make a decision, Ethereum needs to be classified as a commodity, not a security. However, in the near future, JP Morgan considers this event unlikely.

– Six AI-based chatbots have predicted the price of bitcoin at the end of 2024:
Claude Instant from Anthropic's Forecast: With increasing institutional adoption, regulatory clarity, and reduced supply post-halving, the price of bitcoin is expected to reach $85,000 by December 31, 2024.
Pi from Inflection's Forecast: The approval of 11 spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the USA certainly changes the game, and the upcoming halving adds more excitement. Considering the current price of bitcoin, it's predicted that the price could reach $75,000 by December 31, 2024.
Bard from Gemini's Forecast: The approval of 11 spot ETFs and the reduced supply due to the upcoming halving could trigger significant demand, potentially pushing the bitcoin price above $90,000 by December 31. However, unforeseen economic obstacles might restrain this growth, possibly capping the peak at around $70,000.
ChatGPT 3.5 from OpenAI's Forecast: Given the volatile nature of cryptocurrencies and the influence of various factors such as macroeconomic conditions, legislative changes, and market sentiment, making accurate predictions is challenging. Considering these factors, a bitcoin price within $75,000 to $85,000 by December 31, 2024, seems plausible but not guaranteed.
ChatGPT 4's Forecast: Conservatively, the price range could be between $40,000 and $60,000, considering potential market fluctuations and investor caution. On the other hand, the price could potentially vary between $60,000 and $80,000, aided by implementation and investments following ETF approvals and the halving.
Bing AI from Co-Pilot Creative's Forecast: Based on information gathered from various sources, the forecast for the price of bitcoin on December 31, 2024, is around $75,000.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 18, 2024, 10:21:28 AM
NordFX: Best News & Analysis Provider 2023

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/18/37501.jpeg)

Following the results of the voting on the information portal Forexing.com, the brokerage firm NordFX was acknowledged as the Best News & Analysis Provider 2023. The victory was secured "by a clear margin" with over 75% of the votes cast in favour of NordFX.

Forexing.com is one of the leading portals comprehensively covering news and events in the Forex, CFD, and Crypto industry. Winners of the Forexing Awards were determined by open voting by visitors of this online platform, making this award particularly valuable as it most objectively reflects the opinion of the professional community. We sincerely thank everyone who voted for the high appraisal of the work of the NordFX Analytical Group.

The congratulatory letter of this platform addressed to NordFX states: “We are thrilled to extend our heartiest congratulations to you for being honoured as the 'Best News & Analysis Provider' of the Year 2023. This prestigious award is a testament to your exceptional service and dedication in the brokerage industry. At Forexing.com, we take pride in recognizing and celebrating excellence within the financial sector. Our team reviews, rates, and nominates top companies in the industry. The awards recognize the best-performing retail International and regional Forex Brokers. Your achievement stands out as a significant contribution to the industry.”
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 22, 2024, 09:26:33 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 22 – 26, 2024


EUR/USD: Reasons Behind the Dollar's Strengthening

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/22/kSz32.jpeg)

The past week was notably sparse in terms of macroeconomic statistics. Consequently, the market participants' sentiment largely depended on the statements made at the World Economic Forum in Davos (WEF). It's worth noting that this event, held annually at a ski resort in Switzerland, gathers representatives of the global elite from over 120 countries. There, amidst the sparkling, crystal-clear snow glistening in the sunlight, the world's power players discuss economic issues and international politics. This year, the 54th edition of the forum took place from January 15 to 19.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum on January 16, the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, expressed her confidence that inflation would reach the target level of 2.0%. This statement did not raise any doubts, as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone shows a steady decline. From a level of 10.6% at the end of 2022, the CPI has now fallen to 2.9%. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB's Executive Board, did not rule out the possibility of a soft landing for the European economy and a return to the target inflation level by the end of 2024.

According to a Reuters survey of leading economists on the future monetary policy of the ECB, the majority expect the regulator to lower interest rates as early as the second quarter, with 45% of respondents believing that this decision will be made at the June meeting.

On the other hand, inflation in the United States has been unable to surpass the 3.0% mark since July 2023. The figures published on January 11th showed that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.4%, which was above the consensus forecast of 3.2% and the previous value of 3.1%. In monthly terms, consumer inflation also rose, registering at 0.3% against a forecast of 0.2% and a previous value of 0.1%.

In light of this, and considering that the U.S. economy appears quite stable, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in March started to diminish. This shift in sentiment led to a slight strengthening of the dollar, moving EUR/USD from the 1.0900-1.1000 range to the 1.0845-1.0900 zone. Additionally, the weak performance of the Asian stock markets exerted some pressure on the European currency.

According to economists at the Dutch Rabobank, long positions on the euro may face further challenges. This could happen if Donald Trump continues his movement towards a potential second term in the White House. "Although President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act meant that the past four years were not always easy for Europe, Trump's stance on NATO, Ukraine, and possibly climate change could prove costly for Europe and enhance the appeal of the U.S. dollar as a safe asset," the Rabobank experts write. "Based on this, we see a possibility of EUR/USD falling to 1.0500 in a three-month perspective."

EUR/USD closed last week at 1.0897. Currently, the majority of experts predict a rise in the U.S. dollar in the near future. 60% voted in favour of the dollar's strengthening, 20% sided with the euro, and the remaining 20% took a neutral stance. Oscillator readings on the D1 chart confirm the analysts' forecast: 80% are coloured red, indicating a bearish trend, and 20% are in neutral grey. Among the trend indicators, there is a 50/50 split between red (bearish) and green (bullish) signals.

The nearest support levels for the pair are located in the zones of 1.0845-1.0865, followed by 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0515, and 1.0450. On the upside, the bulls will face resistance at 1.0905-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1110-1.1140, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

Unlike the past week, the upcoming week promises to be more eventful. On Tuesday, January 23, we will see the publication of the Eurozone Bank Lending Survey. Wednesday, January 24, will bring a deluge of preliminary statistics on business activity (PPI) in various sectors of the German, Eurozone, and U.S. economies. The main event on Thursday, January 25, will undoubtedly be the European Central Bank's meeting, where a decision on the interest rate will be made. It is expected to remain at the current level of 4.50%. Investors will therefore be paying close attention to what the ECB leaders say at the subsequent press conference. For reference, the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for January 31. Additionally, on January 25, we will learn about the GDP and unemployment data in the United States, and the following day, data on personal consumption expenditures of residents of this country will be released.

GBP/USD: High Inflation Leads to High Rates and a Stronger Pound

Unlike the United States and the Eurozone, there was a significant amount of important statistics released last week concerning the state of the British economy. On Wednesday, January 17, traders were focused on the December inflation data. The data revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom rose from -0.2% to 0.4% month-on-month (against a consensus forecast of 0.2%) and reached 4.0% year-on-year (compared to the previous value of 3.9% and expectations of 3.8%). The core CPI remained at the previous level of 5.1% year-on-year.

Following the release of the report showing inflation growth, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak moved quickly to reassure the markets. He stated that the government's economic plan remains correct and continues to work, having reduced inflation from 11% to 4%. Sunak also noted that wages in the country have been growing faster than prices for five months, suggesting that the trend of weakening inflationary pressure will continue.

Despite this optimistic statement, many market participants believe that the Bank of England (BoE) will postpone the start of easing its monetary policy until the end of the year. "Concerns that the disinflation process might slow down have likely intensified as a result of the latest inflation data," economists at Commerzbank write. "The market will probably bet on the Bank of England responding accordingly and, therefore, being more cautious regarding the first interest rate cut."

Clearly, if the BoE does not rush to ease monetary policy, this will create ideal conditions for the long-term strengthening of the British pound. This prospect already allowed the GBP/USD pair to bounce off the lower boundary of its five-week channel at 1.2596 on January 17th, rising to the channel's midpoint at 1.2714.

It is quite possible that GBP/USD would have continued its upward trajectory, but it was hindered by weak retail sales data in the United Kingdom, which were published at the end of the workweek on Friday, January 19th. The data showed a decline in this indicator by 4.6%, from +1.4% in November to -3.2% in December (against a forecast of -0.5%). If the upcoming Purchasing Managers' Indexes and business activity indicators, due to be released on January 24th, paint a similar picture, it could exert even more pressure on the pound. The Bank of England might fear that a stringent monetary policy could overly decelerate the economy and might consider easing it. According to analysts at ING (Internationale Nederlanden Groep), a reduction in the key interest rate by 100 basis points could lead to GBP/USD falling to the 1.2300 zone over a one to three-month horizon.

ING analysts also believe that the UK budget announcement on March 6 will significantly impact the pound, with tax cuts on the agenda. "Unlike in September 2022," the experts write, "we believe this will be a real tax cut, financed by the reduced cost of debt servicing. This could add 0.2-0.3% to the UK's GDP this year and lead to the Bank of England maintaining higher rates for a longer period."

GBP/USD ended the last week at 1.2703. Looking ahead to the coming days, 65% voted for the pair's decline, 25% were in favour of its rise, and 10% preferred to remain neutral. Contrary to the specialists' opinions, the trend indicators on D1 show a preference for the British currency: 75% indicate a rise in the pair, while 25% point to a decline. Among the oscillators, 25% are in favor of the pound, the same proportion (25%) for the dollar, and 50% hold a neutral position. If the pair moves southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2650, 1.2595-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085. In case of an upward movement, the pair will meet resistance at 1.2720, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

No significant events related to the United Kingdom's economy are anticipated for the upcoming week, other than the previously mentioned events. The Bank of England's next meeting is scheduled for Thursday, February 1.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 22, 2024, 09:29:30 AM
USD/JPY: The 'Moon Mission' Continues

According to data published by the Japanese Statistics Bureau on Friday, January 19, Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December was 2.6% year-on-year, compared to 2.8% in November. The National CPI, excluding fresh food, was 2.3% year-on-year in December, down from 2.5% the previous month.

Given that inflation is already decreasing, the question arises: why raise the interest rate? The logical answer: there is no need. This is why the market's consensus forecast suggests that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will leave the rate unchanged at its meeting on Tuesday, January 23rd, maintaining it at the negative level of -0.1%. (It is worth remembering that the last time the regulator changed the rate was eight years ago, in January 2016, when it was lowered by 200 basis points.).

As usual, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki made another round of verbal interventions on Friday, and as usual, he said nothing new. "We are closely monitoring currency movements," "Forex market movements are determined by various factors," "it's important for the currency to move stably, reflecting fundamental indicators": these are statements that market participants have heard countless times. They no longer believe that the country's financial authorities will move from persuasion to real action. As a result, the yen continued to weaken, and USD/JPY continued its upward movement. (Interestingly, this aligns precisely with the wave analysis we provided two weeks ago.)

The past week's high for USD/JPY was recorded at 148.80, with the week closing near that level at 148.14. In the near future, 50% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, 30% are siding with the yen, and 20% hold a neutral position. As for the trend indicators and oscillators on D1, all 100% point north, though a quarter of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the 147.65 area, followed by 146.90-147.15, 146.00, 145.30, 143.40-143.65, 142.20, 141.50, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels are set in the following areas and zones: 148.50-148.80, 149.85-150.00, 150.80, and 151.70-151.90.

In addition to the Bank of Japan's meeting, another significant event related to the Japanese economy to note for the upcoming week is the publication of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the Tokyo region, which is scheduled for Friday, January 26.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Numerous Predictions, Uncertain Outcome

Last week, the long-awaited regulatory saga finally concluded: as expected, on January 10th, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a batch of all 11 applications from investment companies to launch spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on bitcoin. This news initially caused a spike in bitcoin's price to around $49,000. However, the cryptocurrency then depreciated by about 15%, falling to $41,400. Experts cite overbought conditions or what is known as "market overheating" as the main reason for this decline. As Cointelegraph reports, the SEC's positive decision was already factored into the market price. In 2023, bitcoin had grown 2.5 times, with a significant part of this growth occurring in the fall when the approval of the ETFs became almost inevitable. Many traders and investors, especially short-term speculators, decided to lock in profits rather than buy the now more expensive asset. This is a classic example of the market adage, "Buy on rumors (expectations), sell on facts."

It cannot be said that this price collapse was unexpected. In the lead-up to the SEC's decision, some analysts had predicted a downturn. For instance, experts at CryptoQuant talked about a potential drop in prices to $32,000. Other forecasts mentioned support levels at $42,000 and $40,000. "Bitcoin failed to break through the $50,000 level," analysts at Swissblock wrote. "The question arises whether the leading cryptocurrency can regain the momentum it has lost."

Our previous review was titled "D-Day Has Arrived. What Next?". More than a week has passed since the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, but judging by the BTC/USD chart, the market still hasn't decided on an answer to this question. According to Michael Van De Poppe, head of MN Trading Consultancy, the price is stuck between several levels. He believes that resistance lies at $46,000, but bitcoin could test support in the range between $37,000 and $40,000. In reality, for almost the entire past week, the primary cryptocurrency moved in a narrow sideways channel: between $42,000 and $43,500. However, on January 18-19, bitcoin experienced another bear attack, recording a local minimum at $40,280.

Evaluating the impact of the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs will require some time. Suitable data for analysis is expected to accumulate around mid-February. However, as noted by Cointelegraph, these funds have already attracted over $1.25 billion. On the first day alone, the trading volume of these new financial market instruments reached $4.6 billion.

Andrew Peel, Head of Digital Assets at investment bank Morgan Stanley, points out that the weekly inflow of funds into these new products already exceeds billions of dollars. He believes that the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs could significantly accelerate the process of de-dollarization of the global economy. He is quoted as saying, "Although these innovations are still in their infancy, they open up opportunities for challenging the hegemony of the dollar. Macro investors should consider how these digital assets, with their unique characteristics and growing adoption, can change the future dynamics of the dollar." Andrew Peel reminds us that the popularity of BTC has been growing steadily over the last 15 years, with over 106 million people worldwide now owning the first cryptocurrency. Meanwhile, Michael Van De Poppe notes that the events of January 10 will change the lives of many people around the world. However, he warns that "this will be the last 'easy' cycle for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies" and that it "will take longer than before."

The impact of the newly launched bitcoin ETFs on the global order has also been a topic of discussion among many influencers at the top of the power pyramid, underscoring the significance of this event. For instance, Elizabeth Warren, a member of the U.S. Senate Banking Committee, criticized the SEC's decision, expressing concerns that it could harm the existing financial system and investors. In contrast, Kristalina Georgieva, the Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), holds a different view. She believes that cryptocurrencies are a class of assets, not money, and it's crucial to make this distinction. Therefore, she argues, bitcoin will not be able to replace the U.S. dollar. Additionally, the IMF head disagrees with those who expect that bitcoin ETFs will contribute to the mass adoption of the first cryptocurrency.

Bitcoin's price is projected to reach $100,000 - $150,000 by the end of 2024 and $500,000 within the next five years, according to Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytics firm Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. "In the next five years, supply will be limited, but with the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, we have potentially huge demand, so I think something around $500,000 is quite achievable within five years," the expert stated. He also highlighted the upcoming halving in the spring of 2024 as an additional growth factor.

ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, also speaking on CNBC, predicted a bullish scenario where the first cryptocurrency could reach $1.5 million by 2030. Her firm's analysts calculated that even under a bearish scenario, the price of the digital gold would grow to at least $258,500.

Another forecast was given by Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House Communications Director. "If bitcoin is at $45,000 during the halving, then by mid-to-late 2025, it will be worth $170,000. Whatever the price of bitcoin is on the day of the halving in April, multiply it by four, and it will reach that figure within the next 18 months," said the SkyBridge founder in Davos, ahead of the World Economic Forum.

It's interesting to see how different AI chatbots have provided varied predictions for the price of bitcoin by December 31, 2024. Claude Instant from Anthropic predicted $85,000, while Pi from Inflection expects a rise to $75,000. Bard from Gemini forecasts that the price of BTC will exceed $90,000 by that date, though it cautions that unforeseen economic obstacles could limit the peak to around $70,000. ChatGPT-3.5 from OpenAI sees a price range of $75,000 to $85,000 as plausible but not guaranteed. A more conservative estimate from ChatGPT-4 suggests a range of $40,000 to $60,000, factoring in potential market fluctuations and investor caution, but doesn't rule out a rise to $80,000. Lastly, Bing AI from Co-Pilot creative predicts a price around $75,000, based on the information it has gathered.

These diverse predictions from AI systems reflect the inherent uncertainty and complexity in forecasting cryptocurrency prices, highlighting a range of factors that could influence market dynamics over the next few years.

As of the evening of January 19, BTC/USD was trading around $41,625. The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market stood at $1.64 trillion, down from $1.70 trillion a week earlier. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, has dropped from 71 to 51 points over the week, moving from the 'Greed' zone to the 'Neutral' zone. This shift indicates a change in investor sentiment, reflecting a more cautious approach in the cryptocurrency market.

In conclusion regarding the growing market speculation about the imminent launch of spot ETFs on Ethereum, in our previous review, we cited a statement by SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who clarified that the regulator's positive decision applies exclusively to exchange-traded products based on bitcoin. According to Gensler, this decision "does not signal readiness to approve listing standards for crypto assets that are considered securities." It's important to note that the regulator still classifies only bitcoin as a commodity, while "the vast majority of crypto assets are seen as investment contracts (i.e., securities)."

Now, analysts from the investment bank TD Cowen have confirmed pessimism regarding ETH-ETFs. Based on the information they have; it seems unlikely that the SEC will begin reviewing applications for this investment instrument in the first half of 2024. "Before approving ETH-ETFs, the SEC will want to gain practical experience with similar investment instruments in bitcoin," commented Jaret Seiberg, head of TD Cowen Washington Research Group. TD Cowen believes that the SEC will revisit the discussion of Ethereum ETFs only after the U.S. presidential elections in November 2024.

Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou, a senior analyst at JP Morgan, also does not expect a quick approval of spot ETH-ETFs. He opines that for the SEC to make a decision, it needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity rather than a security. However, JP Morgan considers such a development unlikely in the near future.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 24, 2024, 03:22:32 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– On January 11, bitcoin reached a peak of $47,787, a height last seen in the spring of 2022. However, instead of the anticipated growth, it plummeted and recorded a local low of $38,520 on January 23. In just 12 days, the leading cryptocurrency lost nearly 20%. According to experts, this is a classic case of the "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario. Initially, there was an impressive bull rally, fueled by speculation about the launch of bitcoin ETFs on the stock exchange. However, once these funds became operational, market participants began actively taking profits.
The inflow of capital into BTC-ETFs, many of which were launched by major Wall Street players like BlackRock, was not as substantial as expected. Data from CoinShares shows that the 10 new funds launched on January 11 had gathered $4.7 billion by the end of Tuesday. Meanwhile, $3.4 billion flowed out of the Grayscale trust, which was considered the world's largest holder of bitcoin and has now also been transformed into a BTC-ETF. Logic suggests that a significant portion of the money in the 10 new funds likely came from Grayscale investors who switched to competitors with lower fees. If this is the case, then the inflow of new investments into the funds amounts to only $1.3 billion.

– Along with bitcoin, all major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and others, also suffered losses. Analysts believe that digital assets are facing additional pressure due to improvements in the stock markets, with both American and European indices on the rise. Investors are anticipating the recovery of the US economy ahead of the January 25 publication of the country's GDP data for Q4 2023.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital, didn't miss the opportunity to gloat over the buyers of bitcoin ETF shares. The share price of these funds fell by 20% or more from their peak. The FBTC shares suffered the most, depreciating by 32%. "I think VanEck should change the ticker of its ETF from HODL to GTFO [from 'hold' to 'get rid of", Schiff commented. This advocate for physical gold didn't limit his criticism to spot BTC-ETFs but also highlighted the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), which allows investment in bitcoin futures. Since the launch of this derivative in October 2021, its share price has plummeted by more than half.
Schiff believes that the owners of spot bitcoin ETFs will continue to incur losses. Some experts do not rule out the possibility of the coin's price falling to $30,000 - $35,000, lending some credence to the financier's bleak forecast.

– An analyst operating under the pseudonym Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles of the first cryptocurrency and suggested a further decline in its value. The expert pointed out that during previous rallies, bitcoin followed a consistent pattern: first reaching the Fibonacci level of 78.6%, followed by a correction to 50%. Hence, according to this model, a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $32,700 (50%) is not ruled out.
Trader Mikeystrades also considered a dip to $31,000 and advised against opening long positions. "Save your money until the market starts showing bullish strength and follows the flow of orders," the expert emphasized.
A crypto trader known as EliZ predicted a fall in bitcoin's value to $30,000. "I anticipate a bearish distribution over the next two to three months, with the second half of 2024 likely to be truly bullish. These pauses are necessary to keep the market in a healthy state," he stated.

– Caroline Mauron, the head of OrBit Markets, told Bloomberg that if bitcoin fails to consolidate above $40,000 soon, we could witness a significant liquidation of positions in the futures market accompanied by a panic withdrawal of capital from the crypto sphere.
Michael Van De Poppe, the founder of MN Trading, has a different view. He emphasized that bitcoin has gathered liquidity and is approaching a local bottom. "Buy at the lows. Bitcoin under $40,000 is an opportunity," the analyst urges.
Yann Allemann, co-founder of blockchain data provider Glassnode, also known as Negentropic, believes that a bullish rally in the bitcoin market will start in the first half of 2024. He predicts that by early July, the coin's value will rise to $120,000. This forecast is based on the asset's past price dynamics after the appearance of a bullish flag on the chart.

– In recent critical remarks about digital gold, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, once again expressed doubts about the asset's finite supply limit of 21 million coins.
In response, Jameson Lopp, co-founder & CTO of Casa, posted a fragment of the bitcoin protocol code that establishes a halving of miners' rewards every 210,000 blocks, or approximately every four years. This mechanism implies that after 33 halvings, the reward will drop to zero from the initial 50 BTC, meaning no new coins will be produced. Lopp asserted that "even Satoshi [Nakamoto] can't force" a change in these five lines of the software.
However, some experts believe that theoretically, modifications to bitcoin's source code, like any other, are possible, and the emission limit of 21 million coins could be lifted. But such a decision would have to be made by a consensus of miners. A historical precedent cited is the "block size war" of 2017, when some developers, crypto companies, and mining pools wanted to increase the block size from the original 1 MB to scale the network. This idea was rejected by the community as it would have led to greater centralization of bitcoin.
In a Bitcointalk forum discussion of Dimon's statement, users noted that increasing the emission would negatively impact trust in the cryptocurrency. "The finite supply of 21 million BTC is an advantage that sets bitcoin apart from other banking products. With an emission limit, the asset becomes more valuable. Any attempt to increase the supply is foolishness by short-sighted people who want to undermine trust in digital gold," comments on the forum read. Most participants in the discussion agreed that the final decision remains with the community, which is unlikely to support a change in emission parameters.

– The crypto exchange BitMEX organized a mission with an ambitious goal: to deliver the main digital asset to the surface of Earth's natural satellite. Aboard the lunar lander was a 43-gram cold crypto wallet containing 1 BTC. The module was inscribed with text from the bitcoin genesis block: a tribute to the creator of the first cryptocurrency, Satoshi Nakamoto.
However, something went wrong. The spacecraft, launched into space ten days ago, struggled to maintain orientation towards the Sun, necessary for charging its onboard batteries. Engineers at Astrobotic detected a fuel leak in the module's engine system, but it was too late. NASA recommended burning the module in the atmosphere. Eventually, it almost completely burned up, with the remnants falling somewhere in the southern part of the Pacific Ocean. Thus, the bitcoin managed to travel only 50,000 km from Earth's surface, instead of the planned 385,000 km.

– Bloomberg exchange analyst James Seyffart believes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may authorize the trading of options on spot bitcoin ETFs. He announced this on his page on X (formerly Twitter). Seyffart notes that the SEC has already taken into consideration applications under form 19b-4 for the possibility of trading such instruments. According to the analyst, approval could occur between February 15 and September 21 of this year.

– Last week, Morgan Stanley published a document titled "Digital (De)Dollarization?" authored by the bank's COO, Andrew Peel. According to the author, there is a clear shift towards reducing reliance on the dollar, which in turn is fuelling interest in digital currencies such as bitcoin, stablecoins, and CBDCs (Central Bank Digital Currencies). Peel writes that the recent surge in interest in these assets could significantly alter the currency landscape. He cites a recent survey by Sygnum Bank, which found that over 80% of institutional investors believe cryptocurrencies play a vital role in the global financial industry.

– Popular analyst Lark Davis has pointed out the significant demand for cryptocurrencies in South Korea. He suggests that if local authorities decide to approve a spot bitcoin ETF, it could potentially generate up to $3 billion per year. Additionally, Davis reminded that organizations in Hong Kong are planning to launch their debut product in Q1 this year. If this happens, the influx could amount to about $6 billion over 12 months.

– The number of cryptocurrency users has reached over half a billion people, which is approximately 6% of the Earth's population. According to recent data, the number of people owning Ethereum has increased from 89 million to 124 million, while the number of Bitcoin owners by the end of the year rose from 222 million to 296 million. Notably, 40% of BTC owners also hold ETH, whereas 42% of cryptocurrency owners do not have these coins in their portfolios.
The increase in user numbers is linked to the prolonged bearish trend in the crypto market, as the authors of the study believe: “The adoption of cryptocurrencies in 2023 grew despite macroeconomic obstacles, namely: tightening of monetary policies by Western central banks in an attempt to curb inflation, military conflicts, and the long-term consequences of the pandemic.” Analysts at Crypto.com noted a particularly sharp demand for bitcoin in Q4 2023, spurred by expectations related to the launch of BTC-ETFs.

 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 28, 2024, 12:53:32 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for January 29 – February 02, 2024


EUR/USD: US Economy Delivers Surprises

The two most significant events last week occurred on Thursday, January 25. On this day, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting, and preliminary GDP data for the US for Q4 2023 was published.

As expected, the ECB left the key interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. The regulator also maintained other critical parameters of its monetary policy. At the press conference following the meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from commenting on potential timelines for rate cuts. She reiterated her previous statements, noting that the ECB Governing Council members believe it is premature to discuss policy easing. However, Lagarde highlighted that wage growth is already declining and added that they anticipate further inflation reduction throughout 2024.

Overall, the first event passed without surprises, unlike the second. The preliminary GDP data for Q4 2023 released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the expected slowdown in American economic growth compared to the extremely high rates of Q3 (4.9%), reaching 3.3% on an annual basis. However, this was significantly above the market consensus forecast, which anticipated a more substantial slowdown to 2.0%. Thus, it turned out that for the entire year of 2023, the country's economy grew by 2.5% (compared to 1.9% in 2022). The data confirmed the national economy's resilience to the most significant interest rate hike cycle since the 1980s – instead of the expected slowdown, it continues to grow at rates above the historical trend (1.8%).

These impressive results were a surprise for market participants. They look particularly 'stellar' compared to the performance of other currency zones. For instance, Japan's GDP continues to crawl back to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels, and the Eurozone's GDP seems to have been in a state of stagnation for some time. This benefits the dollar, as a stable economy allows the Federal Reserve to delay the start of monetary policy easing and maintain restrictive measures for a while longer. According to CME futures quotes, the probability of an interest rate cut in March is currently 47%, almost half of what was expected a month ago (88%). Many experts believe the Fed will start gradually reducing the cost of federal fund loans no earlier than May or June, waiting for signs confirming the sustainability of the inflation slowdown.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics also reported on January 25 that the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending January 20 rose to 214K, exceeding the previous week's figures and forecasts of 200K. Despite the slight increase, the actual value still represents one of the lowest levels since the end of last year.

As mentioned earlier, the economic situation in the Eurozone appears significantly worse, exacerbated by Russia's military actions in Ukraine and the downturn of China's economy, an important partner for Europe. Against this backdrop, the ECB may become the most hasty among the G10 central banks to start reducing interest rates. Such a step would exert strong pressure on the common European currency, placing the euro at a disadvantage in the Carry-trade segment. Additionally, the advantages of the dollar as a safe-haven currency should not be overlooked.

The dollar index DXY found strong support at the 100.00 level at the end of last year, rebounded upwards, and has been consolidating around 103.00 for the past week, seemingly 'sticking' to its 200-day moving average. Market participants are awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday, January 31, amidst strong GDP data and convincing evidence of disinflation. It is likely that, as with the ECB, the interest rate will remain at the current level (5.50%). Moreover, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, similar to the ECB's, are expected to be cautious regarding the timelines for rate cuts. However, his more favourable tone regarding inflation reduction may be enough to restore market confidence in the beginning of monetary policy easing as early as March. In this case, DXY could resume its movement towards 100.00. Otherwise, a renewal of the December peak of 104.28 seems quite plausible.

Data on personal consumption expenditures in the US were released at the very end of the workweek, on Friday, January 26. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed a monthly increase from 0.1% to 0.2%, which fully matched forecasts. Year-on-year, the index stood at 2.9%, lower than both the previous value (3.2%) and the forecast (3.0%).

These figures did not significantly impact the exchange rates, and EUR/USD closed the week at 1.0854. Currently, the majority of experts predict the strengthening of the US dollar in the near future. Among them, 80% voted for the dollar's appreciation, 0% sided with the euro, and the remaining 20% held a neutral position. However, in the monthly perspective, the balance of power between bullish (red), bearish (green), and neutral (grey) is evenly distributed: a third for each. Oscillator readings on the D1 timeframe confirm the analysts' forecast: 100% of them are coloured red (15% indicating oversold conditions). Among trend indicators, the balance of power is 65% in favour of the reds and 35% for the greens. The nearest support levels for the pair are located in the zones 1.0800-1.0820, followed by 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0515, and 1.0450. The bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0905-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1110-1.1140, 1.1230-1.1275, 1.1350, and 1.1475.

In the upcoming week, in addition to the aforementioned FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference, we are expecting the release of Q4 GDP data for Germany and the Eurozone on Tuesday, January 30. On Wednesday, we will see the retail sales volumes and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany, as well as the state of employment in the US private sector from ADP. On Thursday, February 1, inflation data (CPI) for the Eurozone and business activity in the US manufacturing sector (PMI) will be published. Additionally, on February 1 and 2, we will traditionally receive a wealth of statistics from the US labor market, including the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created outside of the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP).

GBP/USD: Inflation Continues to Bolster the Pound

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/28/kjQF8.jpeg)

The retail sales report released on January 19 in the United Kingdom turned out to be disappointing. Retail sales volumes in December decreased by -3.2% following a 1.4% increase in the previous month, while analysts had expected a -0.5% drop. Year-on-year, this indicator declined by -2.4% after increasing by 0.2% a month earlier (forecast was -1.1%). Sales excluding fuel dropped by -3.3% month-on-month and -2.1% year-on-year, against expert forecasts of -0.6% and -1.3%, respectively.

However, despite this, GBP/USD not only maintains its position within the six-week lateral channel of 1.2600-1.2800 but is even seeking to consolidate in its upper half. Analysts believe that the British currency continues to be supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will likely be among the last to lower rates this year.

It's worth recalling that the December inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United Kingdom rose month-on-month from -0.2% to 0.4% (consensus forecast was 0.2%), and year-on-year reached 4.0% (compared to the previous value of 3.9% and expectations of 3.8%). The core CPI figure remained at the previous level of 5.1% year-on-year. Following the release of this report, which showed rising inflation, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak quickly sought to reassure the markets. He stated that the government's economic plan remains sound and continues to work, having reduced inflation from 11% to 4%. However, despite the Prime Minister's optimistic statement, many market participants are now more convinced that the Bank of England will delay the start of easing its monetary policy until the end of the year. "Concerns that the disinflation process may stall have probably increased," Commerzbank economists wrote at the time. "And the market will likely bet that the Bank of England will respond accordingly and, therefore, be more cautious about the timing of the first interest rate cut."

The British currency was also bolstered by preliminary data on business activity in the country, released on Wednesday, January 24. The Manufacturing PMI rose from 46.2 to 47.3, against a forecast of 46.7. Furthermore, the Services PMI and the Composite PMI firmly established themselves in the growth zone (above 50 points). The Services PMI increased from 53.4 to 53.8 (forecast was 53.2), and the Composite PMI went up from 52.1 to 52.5 (forecast was 52.2). From these figures, the market inferred that the country's economy could withstand high interest rates for an extended period.   

GBP/USD concluded the previous week at a level of 1.2701. Regarding the analysts' forecasts for the coming days, the sentiment is similar to that for EUR/USD: 70% voted for the pair's decline, only 10% were in favor of its rise, and 20% preferred to remain neutral. The outlook for the monthly and longer-term horizon is more ambiguous. Among the trend indicators on the D1 timeframe, in contrast to the specialists' opinions, there's a clear preference for the British currency: 80% indicate a rise in the pair, while 20% suggest a decline. Among oscillators, 35% are in favour of the pound, 10% for the dollar, and the remaining 55% maintain a neutral stance. Should the pair move southward, support levels and zones at 1.2595-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085 await it. In case of an upward movement, the pair will encounter resistance at levels 1.2750-1.2765, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

In addition to the FOMC meeting of the US Federal Reserve, we will also have a meeting of the Bank of England in the upcoming week. It is scheduled for Thursday, February 1st, and according to forecasts, the BoE is also expected to keep the borrowing rate at the current level of 5.25%. Besides this, no other significant events related to the economy of the United Kingdom are anticipated in the near future.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 28, 2024, 12:56:26 PM
USD/JPY: Does the Drift Towards 150.00 Continue?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region unexpectedly dropped from 2.4% to 1.6% in January, and the figure excluding food and energy prices decreased from 3.5% to 3.1%. Such a significant weakening of inflationary pressure could lead the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to refrain from tightening monetary policy in the foreseeable future.

This forecast is also supported by the monthly economic report of the Japanese government, published on Thursday, January 25. The report states that the consequences of the strong earthquake on the Noto Peninsula in central Honshu, Japan's main island, could reduce the national GDP by 0.5%. These estimates increase the likelihood that the Bank of Japan will maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy at least until mid-2024. Consequently, any speculation about an interest rate hike in April can be disregarded.

The minutes from the Bank of Japan's December meeting reinforce this outlook. It was noted that the Board members agreed that "it is necessary to patiently maintain an accommodative policy." Many members (another quote) "stated that it is necessary to confirm a positive wage-inflation cycle to consider the issue of phasing out negative rates and YCC." "Several members said they do not see the risk of the Central Bank falling behind schedule and can wait for developments at the annual wage negotiations this spring." And so on in the same vein.

Economists at MUFG Bank in Japan believe that the current situation does not hinder the selling of the yen. "Given our view on the strengthening of the US dollar in the near term and the more significant-than-expected drop in inflation data [in Japan]," they write, "we may see an increase in the appetite for Carry-trade positions funded by the yen, which will contribute to the further rise of USD/JPY." MUFG strategists opine that the pair will continue its drift northward, towards 150.00. However, as it approaches this level, the threat of currency interventions by Japanese financial authorities is expected to gradually increase.

In the interest of fairness, it should be noted that there are still those who believe in an imminent shift by the BoJ to a tighter policy. For instance, specialists at the Dutch Rabobank still adhere to a forecast suggesting the regulator could raise rates as early as April. "However," the bank's experts write, "everything will depend on strong wage data from the spring negotiations and evidence of changes in corporate behaviour regarding wages and pricing." "Our forecast, which sees USD/JPY ending the year at 135.00, assumes that the Bank of Japan will raise rates this year," continue the Rabobank economists. However, they add that there is still a possibility of disappointment in the pace of rate hikes.

USD/JPY recorded its peak for the past week at 148.69, finishing slightly lower at 148.11. In the near-term outlook, 30% of experts anticipate further strengthening of the dollar, 30% side with the yen, and 40% hold a neutral position. Regarding the trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 timeframe, all 100% point north, though 10% of them are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the 146.65-146.85 zone, followed by 146.00, 145.30, 143.40-143.65, 142.20, 141.50, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels are positioned at 148.55-148.80, 149.85-150.00, 150.80, and 151.70-151.90.

No significant events related to the Japanese economy are anticipated in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Why Bitcoin Fell

On January 10, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved a batch of all 11 applications from investment companies to launch spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on bitcoin. Against this backdrop, the quotations of the main cryptocurrency momentarily spiked to $47,787, a level last seen in the spring of 2022. However, instead of the expected growth, bitcoin then tumbled and recorded a local minimum of $38,540 on January 23. Thus, in just 12 days, the cryptocurrency lost nearly 20% of its value. According to several specialists, this is a classic case of the "buy the rumour, sell the news" scenario. Initially, there was a significant bull rally fueled by speculations about the launch of bitcoin-based ETFs. Now that these funds are operational, market participants have begun actively taking profits.

However, there are other reasons for the decline, reflected in specific figures. The capital inflow into BTC-ETFs, many of which were launched by major Wall Street players like BlackRock, turned out to be smaller than expected. It appears that investors have become disillusioned with cryptocurrency. According to CoinShares, the 10 new funds had gathered $4.7 billion by the end of Tuesday. Meanwhile, $3.4 billion flowed out of the Grayscale trust, which was considered the world's largest bitcoin holder and has now also been transformed into a BTC-ETF. Logic suggests that a significant portion of the funds likely just shifted from Grayscale investors to the 10 new funds with lower fees. If this is the case, then the net new investment inflow is just $1.3 billion. Moreover, in recent days, this has turned into a net outflow of $25 million.

It's also important to note that since the approval of BTC-ETFs, along with short-term speculators and Grayscale investors, the sell-off has been influenced by the bankruptcy manager of the FTX crypto exchange and especially by miners. Together, they have unloaded $20 billion worth of coins on the market, a large portion of which belongs to the miners. They are particularly concerned about the increasing computational difficulty and the halving in April, which will force many of them out of business. As a result, since January 10, miners have sent a record 355,000 BTC worth $15 billion to crypto exchanges, the highest in six years. In these circumstances, the demand for a spot bitcoin ETF of $4.7 billion (or realistically $1.3 billion) seems modest and unable to compensate for the resulting outflow of funds. Hence, we are witnessing such a significant drop in the price of the main digital asset.

Along with bitcoin, major altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), Avalanche (AVAX), Dogecoin (DOGE), Binance Coin (BNB), and others, also incurred losses. Analysts believe that the improvement in the stock markets has also exerted additional pressure on cryptocurrencies – over the last three weeks, both American and European indices have shown growth.

Peter Schiff, the president of Euro Pacific Capital, did not miss the opportunity to gloat over the buyers of bitcoin ETF shares. He believes that the approval of these funds does not create new demand for cryptocurrency. According to the financier, those investors who previously bought cryptocurrency on the spot market or invested in shares of mining companies and Coinbase are now merely shifting their investments to ETFs. "Shuffling deck chairs won't save the ship from sinking," predicted this advocate of physical gold.

Schiff thinks that the fate of investors in the spot product will be similar to those who invested in the futures ETF BITO, launched in the fall of 2021. Currently, shares of this fund are trading at a 50% discount, implying that bitcoin is also expected to fall to around $25,000. Since January 10, 2024, the share price of BTC-ETFs has already fallen by 20% or more from their peak. The shares of FBTC suffered the most, decreasing in value by 32% in two weeks. "I think VanEck should change the ticker of its ETF from HODL to GTFO [from 'hold' to 'get the heck out']," Schiff sarcastically commented on the situation.

Caroline Mauron, head of OrBit Markets, told Bloomberg that if bitcoin fails to firmly establish itself above $40,000 soon, it could trigger a massive liquidation of positions in the futures market, accompanied by a panic outflow of capital from the crypto sphere.

An analyst using the pseudonym Ali illustrated the price patterns of the last two cycles and, like Caroline Mauron, suggested a further decline in the coin's value. The expert noted that in previous rallies, bitcoin followed a consistent pattern: first reaching the 78.6% Fibonacci level and then correcting to 50%. Thus, according to this model, a drop in the BTC/USD pair to $32,700 (50%) is not ruled out.

Trader Mikeystrades also allowed for a drop to $31,000 and advised against opening long positions. "Save your money until the market begins to demonstrate bullish strength and follows the flow of orders," the expert recommended.

A crypto trader known as EliZ predicted a fall in the bitcoin price to $30,000. "I expect a bearish distribution over the next two to three months, but the second half of 2024 will be truly bullish. These stops are necessary to keep the market in a healthy state," he stated.

Michael Van De Poppe, founder of MN Trading, holds a different view. He emphasized that bitcoin has already collected liquidity and is approaching a local bottom. "Buy at the lows. Bitcoin below $40,000 is an opportunity," the analyst urged. Yann Allemann, co-founder of Glassnode, believes that a bullish rally in the bitcoin market will start in the first half of 2024, with the coin's value increasing to $120,000 by early July. This forecast is based on the dynamics of the asset's value changes in the past after the appearance of a bullish flag pattern on the chart.

Indeed, negative scenarios should not be ignored. However, it's important to consider that current pressures are largely due to temporary factors, while long-term trends continue to favor digital gold. For instance, since the fall of 2021, there has been an increase in the proportion of coins that have remained inactive for over a year. This indicator is now showing a record 70%. An increasing number of people are trusting bitcoin as a tool for inflation protection and savings. The number of cryptocurrency users has reached over half a billion people, about 6% of the Earth's population. According to recent data, the number of Ethereum holders has grown from 89 million to 124 million, while the number of bitcoin owners by the end of the year increased from 222 million to 296 million people.

There is also growing acceptance of this new type of asset among large capital representatives. Last week, Morgan Stanley published a document titled "Digital (De)Dollarization?", authored by the investment bank's COO Andrew Peel. According to the author, there is a clear shift towards reducing dependency on the dollar, simultaneously fuelling interest in digital currencies such as bitcoins, stablecoins, and CBDCs. Peel writes that the recent surge in interest in these assets could significantly alter the currency landscape. According to a recent Sygnum Bank survey, over 80% of institutional investors believe that cryptocurrencies already play an important role in the global financial industry.

As of the evening of January 26, when this review was written, BTC/USD is trading around $42,000. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.61 trillion, down from $1.64 trillion a week ago. The Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index remains in the Neutral zone at 49 points, slightly down from 51 a week earlier.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on January 31, 2024, 03:23:36 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/01/31/kbXIW.jpeg)

– Analysts note that the 12-month volatility of the first cryptocurrency has reached its lowest level in 12 years. The indicator has fluctuated significantly over the years, but overall, it has shown a clear downward trend during this period. From 179% in January 2012, it fell to 45% at the beginning of this year. A higher figure indicates significant price variability and signals greater market unpredictability. Lower metric values suggest much more stable trading conditions.
CryptoQuant believes that reduced volatility may indicate a greater number of long-term holders. Meanwhile, the research department at Galaxy Digital predicts that the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in the USA will further smooth price fluctuations. "A huge amount of BTC will be in the accounts of [investment] advisors. They are not interested in intraday trading," the experts state.

– Analysts at Matrixport have predicted a fall in the price of the first cryptocurrency to $36,000. They believe that bitcoin can then appreciate, but only against the backdrop of favourable macroeconomic conditions and increased liquidity. It's worth recalling that in December, these same analysts forecasted bitcoin to reach $125,000 in 2024.

– Chris Burniske, a partner at the venture firm Placeholder, has forecasted that the price of bitcoin will initially drop to the $30,000-$36,000 range, before potentially reaching a local bottom around $20,000. "We're heading towards a consolidation lower than most people expect, due to too many variables (such as the specifics of the crypto market, macroeconomics, the adoption and development of new products)," the expert warned. However, he believes that testing levels around $20,000 will be a "real step" towards eventually returning to previous highs. "The journey there will be volatile – expect setbacks. And it will take months. As always, your best friend is patience," Burniske emphasized, adding that the fall in other assets will be deeper than that of bitcoin.

– Amazon MGM Studios has launched the production of the feature film "Razzlekhan," which will narrate the story of the 2016 Bitfinex cryptocurrency exchange hack involving 120,000 BTC. The film is based on a 2022 New York Times article about the married couple, Russian Ilya Lichtenstein and American Heather Morgan, who are accused of laundering the stolen funds. The film's title is derived from Morgan's rap pseudonym.
In February 2022, the U.S. authorities arrested the couple and seized bitcoins worth $3.6 billion. That same month, Morgan was released on a $3 million bail, while Lichtenstein remained in custody.

– Peter Schiff, President of Euro Pacific Capital and a well-known opponent of the first cryptocurrency, unexpectedly conceded that by 2031, the price of bitcoin could reach $10 million, albeit under a very hypothetical scenario. According to him, this could occur if the US dollar follows the path of the "German paper mark". This term informally referred to the currency introduced in Germany at the beginning of World War I in 1914, replacing the previous mark, which was backed by gold.
In the early 1920s, the paper mark depreciated due to hyperinflation. During these years, companies paid salaries several times a day so that workers could make purchases before the next price increase. The money supply grew so rapidly that the state couldn't print banknotes fast enough and had to involve private printers. The largest denomination issued was a 100 trillion-mark banknote.

– While Peter Schiff may be sceptical and ironic about the prospect of an economic collapse and the fall of the US dollar, Robert Kiyosaki, the investor and bestselling author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," harbours no such doubts. He insists that gold, silver, and bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. Kiyosaki, admitting his limited knowledge about the main cryptocurrency, believes in the success of bitcoin due to the "very smart people" involved in it. He is confident that the price of BTC could reach $1 million in the event of a global economic downturn.

– The analyst known as Rekt Capital believes traders have one last opportunity to purchase bitcoin at a low price. His analysis of historical data has led him to several conclusions. 1. If bitcoin's price does not decrease within the next two weeks, it's unlikely to significantly drop before the halving, which is scheduled for April 19. 2. Around 60 days prior to the halving, BTC’s price is expected to increase due to the excitement surrounding the event. 3. Following the halving, there might be a rush by speculators to sell their holdings, potentially causing bitcoin's price to fall for several weeks, possibly by 20-38%. 4. After this period, a phase of accumulation is anticipated, which could last up to 150 days and is characterized by relatively low price volatility for BTC. 5. This accumulation phase is expected to be followed by a phase of parabolic growth in bitcoin's rate, culminating in a new historical high.

– A new study has revealed that the adoption of digital assets continues to grow actively in Europe. The Binance team conducted a survey across several European countries, including France, Italy, Spain, and Sweden, involving over 10,000 participants. The findings from the study showed that 73% of European residents believe in the future of cryptocurrencies. 55% of respondents reported using cryptocurrency for purchases, with 10% doing so on a weekly basis. Additionally, 24% indicated that nearly half of their trading operations involve tokens.
The main factors contributing to the adoption of digital assets in Europe, as identified by survey participants, include high profitability, decentralization, and innovation. Rachel Conlan, Chief Marketing Officer at Binance, noted that such widespread integration of digital assets in Europe is facilitated by a safe and harmonized regulatory framework in the region.

– Analyst DonAlt informed his 56,700 YouTube subscribers that despite the volatility due to the launch of BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bitcoin has managed to avoid a complete price collapse. The digital gold remains strong even after its price fell below $40,000 last week. The expert believes that the absence of major selloffs is a positive sign. "For this reason, I'm no longer in the bear camp; now I'm in the bull camp," he stated. DonAlt also emphasized that bitcoin is consolidating within a strong upward trend and is likely to regain its bullish momentum as soon as it overcomes the resistance level at $44,000.

– According to analysts at Glassnode, the majority of long-term investors are still reluctant to part with their coins. The Glassnode report indicates that the vast majority of BTC holders are adhering to a hodling strategy in anticipation of higher spot prices. K33 Market Research reports that the volume of spot trading in bitcoins has reached "consistently high activity following the approval of ETFs." It's noted that "a significant portion of ETF flows is likely distributed among other over-the-counter orders, not affecting the spot market order books." According to The Block’s Data Dashboard, the monthly volume of on-chain transactions in the bitcoin network in January was at a multi-month high, with trading volume for January exceeding $1.11 trillion.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital hedge fund, believes that the price of bitcoin will surge to at least $170,000 following the halving in April. "On the day of the halving, multiply the BTC price by four, and it will reach this level within the next 18 months," he stated. "For instance, if the price is $50,000, then later bitcoin will be worth $200,000," explained the investor. Previously, the head of SkyBridge had claimed that the BTC price post-halving could reach $100,000. He also cited the reduction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate in the USA as an additional reason for the onset of a bullish rally.
Regarding the long-term price, Scaramucci forecasts that bitcoin's market capitalization could reach half of gold's market capitalization, which is $14.5 trillion. Consequently, according to his calculations, the price of the coin could be around $345,000.

– Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, utilizes Elliott Wave Theory in his forecasts, which suggests that asset prices move in five waves. According to this theory, the first, third, and fifth waves are "impulse waves," while the others are "corrective waves." The recent decline in bitcoin’s price represents the fourth wave, or a correction, the analyst believes. Currently, the fifth wave is starting, which could drive the price upwards. "Wave analysis has marked this recovery up to $52,671 potentially by the end of Q1 2024," the 10x Research representative announced. In his view, the bitcoin price is influenced by the overall growth of the stock market and the cessation of fund outflows from Grayscale's largest bitcoin exchange-traded fund. The growth of digital assets will also be supported by Google's decision to allow advertising for cryptocurrency ETFs.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 02, 2024, 02:24:28 PM
January 2024 Results: Gold Regains Value in the New Year

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/02/v2b2f.jpeg)

NordFX, a brokerage firm, has summarized the trading performance of its clients for January 2024. The effectiveness of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits earned by the company's IB partners, were also evaluated.

- The most successful trader in the first month of the new year was a client from Western Asia, with account number 1740XXX, who achieved a profit of 18,732 USD through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
- The XAU/USD pair also aided a representative from South Asia, account number 1694XXX, to secure the second step on the podium with a result of 16,355 USD.
- Third place went to a compatriot of the latter, the owner of account number 1595XXX. By trading the same instrument favoured by NordFX traders, gold (XAU/USD), as well as the British pound (GBP/USD), he earned a profit of 12,725 USD.

As for NordFX passive investment services, the situation unfolded as follows:

- In the PAMM service, the Trade and Earn account continues to attract the attention of passive investors. Opened in March 2022, it remained dormant for four months before awakening in November. As a result, during its "active" period, its return exceeded 415%. Unfortunately, at the end of 2023, the account manager made a serious mistake. While for a long time the maximum drawdown did not exceed 17%, in just a few days of December, it approached a dangerous 60%. However, the manager was able to rectify the situation afterwards, leading to a sharp increase in profitability, with the maximum drawdown in January not exceeding 10%.
   
Among startups, the account Kikos2 is noteworthy, showing a profit of 325% in just 72 days. However, given the aggressive trading strategy, it also experienced a significant maximum drawdown of about 60%. This serves as a reminder that investors should exercise utmost caution when investing their money. Past results do not guarantee future performance, so it is important to assess one's financial capabilities and be prepared for potential setbacks.
   
- In CopyTrading, we continue to monitor the signal from yahmat-forex, which has shown a return of 335% over 222 days, with a maximum drawdown of 37%. The startup Fund Manage Global 100 also caught our attention, delivering a 160% return in just 83 days with a relatively moderate drawdown of 20%. Additionally, the signal FX NEW SKY cannot be overlooked. In just two weeks, it achieved not just a sky-high, but a cosmic profit of 1820%. However, it also experienced a cosmic maximum drawdown of 77%. After all, as is well known, journeys to the stars are exceptionally risky and fraught with potential crashes and catastrophes.

Among the IB partners of the brokerage firm NordFX, the top 3 are as follows:
- The largest commission reward in January was credited to a partner from East Asia, with account number 1218XXX, amounting to 8,268 USD;
- is was followed by a colleague from West Asia, account number 1645XXX, who earned 5,746 USD for the month;
- nally, completing the top three is a partner from South Asia, account number 1718XXX, who received 3,842 USD in commissions.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 03, 2024, 11:01:41 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 05 – 09, 2024


EUR/USD: Dollar Strengthening Prospects Increase

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/03/vu6BP.jpeg)

Throughout January, a series of indicators: GDP, employment, and retail sales, consistently highlighted the strength of the US economy. The threat of recession diminished, and it became evident that the high interest rate did not significantly hinder economic performance. Market participants were keenly awaiting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve, scheduled for Wednesday, January 31, against the backdrop of these positive economic indicators.

As anticipated, the regulator maintained the key rate at its current level (5.50%) but shifted its rhetoric to indicate that its next move would likely be to ease monetary policy. The question on everyone's mind was: when? During the press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sought to temper expectations. He stated that FOMC members wanted to be 100% certain of victory over inflation and that they would not rush into a dovish pivot until convincing evidence of inflation falling below the 2.0% target was seen. Fortunately, the strong economy permits this cautious approach. However, Powell acknowledged that should there be a sharp cooling in the labour market, the easing of monetary policy could occur quite swiftly.

It should be noted that throughout the latter half of January, Fed officials made concerted efforts to temper expectations of a rate cut starting as early as March. And it must be said, they succeeded. The probability of a policy reversal in March dropped from a peak of 90% to 35.5%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in May increased to 61%.

The market's reaction to the outcome of the FOMC meeting was rather muted. The DXY dollar index failed to reach 104.00, and EUR/USD, having dropped to 1.0800 on February 1, reversed direction and climbed back to 1.0900 by Friday, in anticipation of the release of data on the state of the American labour market.

The data published on February 2 revealed that the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) increased by 353,000 in January, far exceeding the expected 180,000. This followed a December increase of 333,000. Unemployment remained stable at 3.7%, while wage inflation rose to 4.5% on an annual basis, significantly surpassing market expectations of 4.1%. Thus, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's concerns about a sharp cooling of the labour market were unfounded, which clearly benefited the American currency.

Let's recall that a week earlier, on January 25, the European Central Bank (ECB) held a meeting where the regulator also left the key interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. During the press conference following the meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde refrained from commenting on the possible timing of rate cuts. According to her, the Governing Council members believe it is too early to discuss easing monetary policy. However, many market participants think that economic challenges may prompt the ECB to initiate this process first. A comparison of macroeconomic indicators between the Old and the New World is enough to support this view.

The unemployment rate in the Eurozone stands at 6.4% compared to 3.7% in the US. European GDP barely moved from a recessionary negative level of -0.1% to 0% in Q4, while the US saw a growth of +3.3%. Moreover, inflation in the Eurozone is close to the target of 2.0%, currently at 2.9%, compared to 3.4% in the US. All these indicators could prompt the European Central Bank to begin easing monetary policy soon. Furthermore, ECB Vice President Francois Villeroy de Galhau recently stated that the rate could be reduced at any moment. Many market participants interpreted this as a signal that a dovish trend might begin within the next two months.

However, analysts at Commerzbank believe that an initial rate cut in March or April might not occur. They note that one negative factor for the euro persists. The bank's strategists think that there is a significant faction within the ECB Governing Council that is merely biding time, to then seize the first opportunity to advocate for a rate cut. "This may even be too soon," Commerzbank warns.

Economists at another bank, the British HSBC, expect the dollar to strengthen slightly in the medium term, especially against the euro and the pound. This is attributed to the continued outperformance of the US economy compared to many other G10 countries, allowing the Federal Reserve to delay easing its policy. "A less aggressive easing path could lead to a decrease in risk appetite, which would support the US dollar," HSBC specialists write.

EUR/USD closed the week at 1.0787. At present, 30% of experts have voted for the dollar to strengthen in the near future, anticipating further decline in the pair. An equal percentage sided with the euro, believing that the pair will at least remain within the 1.0800-1.0900 channel. The remaining 40% have adopted a neutral stance. Indicator readings on the D1 are more definitive. Oscillators are 100% in the red (though 20% of them signal oversold conditions). Among trend indicators, the balance of power is 85% red to 15% green. The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0780 zone, followed by 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0620-1.0640, 1.0500-1.0515, and 1.0450. Bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0820, 1.0890-1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1110-1.1140, and 1.1230-1.1275.

Key events for the upcoming week include the release of data on business activity (PMI) in the US services sector on Monday, February 5. The next day, volumes of retail sales in the Eurozone will be disclosed. Thursday traditionally brings information on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. And towards the very end of the workweek, on Friday, February 9, data on consumer price inflation (CPI) in Germany, the main engine of the European economy, will be released.

GBP/USD: US Labor Market Delivers Blow to the Pound

Last week, on Thursday, February 1, the Bank of England (BoE), like its counterparts across the Channel and the Atlantic, maintained its key interest rate at 5.25%. The Bank of England made no changes to its policy and did not issue any dovish statements. However, the pound received support as two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee continued to vote for a rate hike of 25 basis points. This argument proved to be relatively weak, especially since another committee member voted for a rate cut, while the overwhelming majority, eight members, supported keeping the rate unchanged.

Analysts continue to believe that expectations are on the side of the British currency, speculating that the BoE might be among the last to cut rates this year. However, according to Scotiabank specialists, for further growth of the GBP/USD pair, a breakthrough of the late December peak at 1.2825 is necessary. Yet, there seems to be no foundation for this at the moment. Moreover, strong data from the US labour market strengthened the dollar and prevented the pair from remaining near the upper boundary of the 1.2600-1.2800 sideways channel, where it has been trading for seven weeks.

GBP/USD concluded the past week at 1.2632. According to economists at Internationale Nederlanden Groep (ING), a strong dollar may keep GBP/USD around the 1.2600-1.2700 range in Q1 2024. Regarding the median forecast of analysts for the coming days, 35% voted for the pair falling below the 1.2600 support level, 50% for its rise, and 15% preferred to maintain neutrality. Unlike the experts, trend indicators on D1 show a slight bias towards the American currency, with 60% indicating a strengthening dollar and further decline of the pair, against 40% suggesting its rise. Among oscillators, 65% lean towards the dollar (with 10% indicating oversold conditions), 10% favour the pound, and the remaining 25% hold a neutral position. Should the pair move south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2595-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2330, 1.2210, and 1.2070-1.2085. In case of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2695-1.2725, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

No release of significant macroeconomic data related to the economy of the United Kingdom is anticipated for the upcoming week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 03, 2024, 11:02:32 AM
USD/JPY: BoJ Policy Shift: Dreams or Reality?

Strong U.S. labour market statistics dashed the hopes of bulls not only for the euro and the pound but also for the yen. At the beginning of the past week, the Japanese currency was gaining, and USD/JPY was trending downwards, marking a local minimum at 145.89 on Thursday, February 1. A sharp decline in the yield of U.S. Treasuries helped the yen. Specifically, the yield on 10-year U.S. bonds fell to its lowest level since the end of December: 3.9%. It is worth noting the correlation between U.S. securities and USD/JPY. If the yield on ten-year Treasury notes falls, the yen strengthens, and USD/JPY forms a downward trend. This was exactly the case. However, the end of the workweek was characterized by a clear advantage for the American currency, and the pair soared again, concluding at 148.35.

Many market participants continue to harbour hopes for a tightening of monetary policy by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). For instance, analysts at the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CIBC) expect the BoJ to move away from negative interest rates in April, with additional changes in its Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy to support the Japanese yen in the second half of the year. "We believe," CIBC strategists write, "that USD/JPY has already reached its peak and should [...] decrease to 144.00 in Q2. Following this, we anticipate that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the prospect of gradual adjustments to the BoJ's YCC will lead to a decline in USD/JPY to 140.00 in Q3 and 135.00 in Q4 2024."

It's important to note that many experts had anticipated a tightening of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy already in 2023: a topic extensively covered in previous discussions. However, this did not occur. And it might not happen now either.

In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region unexpectedly fell from 2.4% to 1.6%, and the core CPI, excluding fresh food and energy prices, decreased from 3.5% to 3.1%. Additionally, the growth of industrial production in Japan in December slowed to 1.8%, against a forecast of 2.4%. On a year-over-year basis, industrial production also showed further deceleration: in December, this indicator was -0.7% (year-on-year), an improvement compared to the previous period's -1.4% but still marking a decline.

Such a significant easing of inflationary pressure and a slowdown in economic growth may lead to the BoJ not tightening its policy in the foreseeable future, leaving the interest rate at -0.1%. This forecast was also confirmed by the minutes from the Bank of Japan's December meeting. It was indicated that the Board members agree that "it is necessary to patiently maintain a loose policy."

Regarding the near-term outlook, only 25% of experts expect further strengthening of the dollar and an increase in USD/JPY. In contrast, 75% are siding with the yen, agreeing with CIBC economists that the pair has reached its peak. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are all pointing northward, with 100% indicating upward momentum, although 10% of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the 147.60 zone, followed by 146.85-147.15, 146.00, 145.30, 143.40-143.65, 142.20, 141.50, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are at 148.55-148.80, 149.85-150.00, 150.80, and 151.70-151.90.

No significant events or statistics related to the Japanese economy are expected in the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Halving – Grief or Joy?

Throughout the past week, BTC/USD moved with support at $42,000 without showing any significant results in either direction, drawing special attention to its statistics. Analysts note that the 12-month volatility of the first cryptocurrency has reached its lowest level in 12 years. The indicator has varied significantly over the years but has generally shown a clear downward trend over this period. From 179% in January 2012, it dropped to 45% at the beginning of this year.

A higher volatility figure indicates significant price variability and signals greater market unpredictability. Lower metric values suggest much more stable trading conditions. The decreased volatility could mean a larger number of long-term holders, according to CryptoQuant. The research department at Galaxy Digital predicts that the spot bitcoin ETFs launched in January will further smooth out price fluctuations. "A huge amount of BTC will be held in [investment] advisory accounts. They are not interested in intraday trading," the experts state.

Analysts at Glassnode also spoke about long-term investors. Their report indicates that the overwhelming majority of such BTC holders still do not wish to part with their coins and adhere to a hodling strategy in anticipation of higher spot prices. According to K33 Market Research, the volume of spot trading in bitcoin reached "sustainably high activity following the approval of ETFs." Data from The Block’s Data Dashboard shows that the monthly volume of on-chain transactions in the bitcoin network in January was at a multi-month high, with trading volume for January exceeding $1.11 trillion.

Regarding the Bitcoin ETFs launched in January, the situation has not been as promising as expected. According to several experts, this is a classic case of "buy the rumour, sell the news." Initially, there was an impressive bull rally. Now, however, as these funds have become operational, market participants have begun actively taking profits.

The Grayscale ETF was converted from a trust fund, and by the end of January, it experienced a withdrawal of funds amounting to $2.2 billion. The reason for this is not only the profit-taking by the trust's shareholders in 2023 but also dissatisfaction with high management fees. Grayscale charges a 1.5% fee, whereas other funds have managed to keep their fees between 0.2-0.3%. Among the ETF competitors, BlackRock continues to lead with $2.2 billion, with Fidelity approaching $2 billion. WisdomTree is at the bottom of the ranking with $6.3 million. As for the net inflow of funds since the launch of spot BTC-ETFs, it stands at a modest $760 million.

In addition to profit-taking, another reason putting pressure on the market has been the miners. The halving is scheduled for April 19, leaving roughly 2.5 months. If the price of digital gold does not show significant growth during this period, the majority of miners will face a severe liquidity shortage. Therefore, they have already started to sell off their BTC reserves to replenish liquidity. Since the approval of spot ETFs on January 10, they have sent a record 624,000 BTC to exchanges over the last six years, approximately worth $26 billion. According to estimates, miners still have about 1.8 million BTC left, valued at $76 billion. The sale of these reserves could potentially push bitcoin prices significantly lower.

Analysts at Matrixport have forecasted a drop in BTC/USD to $36,000. They believe that bitcoin might then appreciate in value, but only against a backdrop of favourable macroeconomic conditions and increasing liquidity. (It's worth mentioning that these same analysts had predicted bitcoin would reach $125,000 in 2024 back in December).

Chris Burniske, a partner at the venture firm Placeholder, provided an even more pessimistic forecast. He believes that the price of the leading cryptocurrency will first fall to the $30,000-$36,000 range and then likely reach a local bottom around $20,000. "The consolidation will come lower than most people expect, due to too many variables (e.g., specifics of the crypto market, macroeconomics, adoption, and development of new products)," the expert warned. However, testing the levels around $20,000 will be a "real step" towards reaching previous highs, he believes. "The journey there will be volatile – expect setbacks. And it will take months. As always, your best friend is patience," Burniske emphasized, adding that the decline in other assets will be even deeper than that of bitcoin.

Contrary to Chris Burniske, the forecast by analyst DonAlt appears significantly more optimistic. He cheered his 56,700 YouTube subscribers by noting that bitcoin managed to avoid a total price collapse after the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs. "Digital gold looks strong even after its price dropped below $40,000 last week," he observed. The expert believes that the absence of mass selloffs is a positive sign. "For this reason, I am no longer in the bear camp; now, I am with the bulls," he declared. DonAlt also emphasized that bitcoin is consolidating within a strong upward trend and is likely to regain bullish momentum once it overcomes resistance at the $44,000 level.

Another expert, known by the nickname Rekt Capital, believes traders have one last chance to buy bitcoin at a low price. He analysed historical data and came to the following conclusions:

1. If bitcoin does not become cheaper in the next two weeks, then the coin's price will not significantly fall until the halving. 2. Approximately 60 days before the halving, BTC's price will rise on the wave of hype surrounding the event. 3. After the halving, speculators will rush to sell the cryptocurrency, so bitcoin will depreciate for several weeks, and its value may drop by 20-38%. 4. Then a period of accumulation will begin, lasting up to 150 days, characterized by a relatively low level of BTC price volatility. 5. After this, a phase of parabolic growth in the bitcoin price will start, and its price will reach a new all-time high.

Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, is a proponent of Elliott Wave Theory, which suggests that asset prices move in five waves. According to this theory, the first, third, and fifth waves are "impulse waves" that move the asset in the direction of the trend, while the others are corrective "retracement waves." The analyst believes the recent decline in bitcoin's price represents the fourth wave, i.e., a retracement. At present, the fifth wave is beginning, which could push the price upward. "Wave analysis has marked this recovery up to $52,671 potentially by the end of the first quarter of 2024," Thielen announced.

Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of hedge fund SkyBridge Capital, pointed to a similar figure. "Suppose the price [on the day of the halving] is $50,000," he predicts. "Multiply this BTC price by four, and it will reach this level [$200,000] within the next 18 months." Previously, the head of SkyBridge claimed that the BTC rate could reach $100,000 after the halving. As an additional reason for a bullish rally, he cited the reduction of the US Federal Reserve's interest rate.

Regarding the long-term course, Scaramucci forecasts that bitcoin's market capitalization could reach half of gold's, which stands at $14.5 trillion. Therefore, by his calculations, the price per coin would amount to about $345,000.

Peter Schiff, the President of Euro Pacific Capital and a staunch opponent of the first cryptocurrency, made an unexpected long-term forecast. While he typically predicted a complete crash for bitcoin, he has now suggested that by 2031 the price of the coin could reach ... $10 million, albeit under a very hypothetical scenario. According to him, this would only occur if the US dollar were to follow the path of "German paper marks." This term informally referred to the currency introduced in Germany at the start of World War I in 1914 as a replacement for the previous gold-backed mark. In the early 1920s, the paper mark depreciated due to hyperinflation. At that time, companies paid wages several times a day so that workers could make purchases before prices rose again. The money supply grew so rapidly that the state could not print banknotes fast enough and had to enlist private companies for help. The largest denomination issued was a banknote worth 100 trillion marks.

In reality, Peter Schiff does not believe in an economic collapse and the fall of the US dollar. Thus, this forecast of his can be considered mockingly sarcastic towards bitcoin. However, Robert Kiyosaki, the economist and author of the bestseller "Rich Dad Poor Dad," harbours no doubts about such a scenario. He continues to insist that gold, silver, and bitcoin should be part of every investor's portfolio. He is confident that the price of BTC could reach $1 million in the event of a global economic collapse.

As of the evening of February 2, when this review was written, the global economy has not collapsed, BTC/USD has not reached either $1 million or $10 million, and is currently trading around $43,000. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.65 trillion (up from $1.61 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has increased to 63 points (from 49 a week ago), moving from the Neutral zone into the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 07, 2024, 03:29:49 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/07/vIrPg.jpeg)

– Nayib Bukele was re-elected as President of El Salvador on February 4, winning by a substantial margin. The leader, who has openly supported bitcoin and made it the country's first legal tender, garnered the support of the majority of the Salvadoran society, securing approximately 85% of the electorate's votes. "This is a record for democratic elections worldwide," Bukele stated.
Shortly before the election, it was announced that should Bukele win the presidency by a large margin, he would expand the use of bitcoin. Specifically, Bukele plans to issue passports to bitcoin entrepreneurs and launch Volcano bonds, which will fund the construction of Bitcoin City, a tax haven for crypto companies.

– Jim Rogers, an investor who co-founded the Quantum Fund with George Soros, believes that bitcoin does not pose a threat as a potential replacement for existing government currencies. According to him, despite bitcoin's growth and current perception, the primary role of the flagship cryptocurrency is to serve as a trading instrument. Rogers emphasized that governments are unlikely to recognize bitcoin as a currency, as they fear potential competition with existing monetary systems. However, the investor suggests that Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are likely to be adopted in several countries around the world.

– The former President of the United States, Donald Trump, also commented on the possibility of the country adopting a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC). He stated that if he were to be re-elected, he would prevent the introduction of this type of currency in the United States. Trump emphasized that a CBDC infringes upon citizens' rights and freedoms, as it would allow government entities access to detailed information about people's financial activities. "I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency that would enable the theft of your money," Trump declared.

– The popular blogger PlanB has stated that following the upcoming bitcoin halving in April, bitcoin will become scarcer than gold and real estate, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach a price around $500,000. Based on his Stock-to-Flow model, the expert considered that the digital asset's market capitalization might not surpass that of gold: over $10 trillion. However, approaching this mark and a coin issuance of 20 million could lead to the stated price. PlanB did not specify a timeframe for reaching this price.
The analyst also named the minimum level below which, in his opinion, the primary cryptocurrency will not fall. The 200-week moving average (200WMA) of the BTC price has exceeded $31,000, and according to PlanB, historically, the price has never dropped below this metric.

– Scott Melker, a renowned trader, investor, writer, and host of "The Wolf Of All Streets" podcast, who also holds the title of Binance Influencer of the Year, has shared his perspective on the upcoming bitcoin halving. He believes this event could drive the price of bitcoin up to $240,000. "The bitcoin halving will occur when the number of mined blocks reaches 840,000 in April 2024, at which point the block reward will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC," Melker explained. "Essentially, this means that the issuance of new coins will be halved. It will become twice as difficult for miners to earn money from bitcoin mining." Following the previous halving, the BTC price soared from $20,000 to $69,000, marking a 250% increase. Therefore, if the situation repeats this time, the next peak after $69,000 could be $240,000. "I know it might seem like an exaggeration... This cycle has worked in the past. And until I see it fail [this time], I'm prepared to bet that bitcoin will exceed $200,000," Melker insists.
It's worth noting that Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of Skybridge Capital, also recently expressed optimism about bitcoin's future. He believes the halving will lift the BTC price to $170,000.

– CryptoQuant has announced that bitcoin miner reserves have dropped to their lowest level since July 2021. The wallets of mining pools are holding the lowest volume of cryptocurrency since the so-called Great Migration of miners from China to other countries in Eurasia and North America. Moreover, last week saw the largest outflow of BTC from miners' autonomous wallets to exchanges.
Analysts at Bitfinex are also observing an influx of bitcoins to exchange addresses associated with mining companies. They believe that a massive coin dump could occur in the coming days. Consequently, pressure will increase again, and the digital currency may fall below $40,000. The Bitfinex report notes that sales are increasing due to the approaching halving. They estimate that, following the miners, short-term investors may join the sell-off. They will start to dispose of the cryptocurrency for fear that its price will fall below the level at which they purchased the coins.

– Michael Van De Poppe, a renowned trader, investor, and founder of MN Trading, believes that the value of bitcoin could reach $500,000. He highlighted several factors that will cause an explosive growth in the flagship coin's rate. Among these factors are the current market state, the launch of BTC-ETFs, inflows from institutional investors, and others. An important factor will be the halving, after which a bullish growth of the cryptocurrency market is expected. The researcher emphasized that the current cycle might be slightly longer than before, due to the entry of institutional players into the market and a change in the overall direction of the industry's development. According to the analyst, liquidity influences, macroeconomic factors, and others could have a greater impact on the market.
Van De Poppe suggests a scenario where the value of bitcoin could rise to $48,000 before the halving, hitting a key resistance level. This would be followed by another correction, resulting in a 20% price drop. After the halving, the BTC value will start to rise again and reach a local peak by the fall.

– Grok, an artificial intelligence developed by Elon Musk's company xAI, has made two predictions: by the end of 2024, the Ethereum rate will range from $4,000 to $5,000; within the year, the value of ETH could peak at $6,500. Grok highly values the prospects of Ethereum due to the development of its ecosystem and the upcoming Dencun update, scheduled for February 8. This upgrade is expected to enhance the scalability of the ETH blockchain and significantly reduce transaction processing costs in second-layer networks through the implementation of proto-danksharding technology, which allows for increased blockchain throughput. The artificial intelligence also identifies spot Ethereum ETFs as catalysts for the coin's price growth, which could be approved by the end of May. Applications for the issuance of these derivatives have been submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) by six major American companies: Volatility Shares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, Roundhill, and Proshares.

– Senator Elizabeth Warren asserts that her legislative proposal has already garnered the support of 19 members of the U.S. Senate. She hopes that "common sense will prevail," and her supporters, along with other congressmen, "will achieve effective measures to combat the criminal use of crypto assets."
Should the law come into effect, the anti-money laundering regulations from the traditional finance sector will fully apply to digital asset market players. According to the draft document, Know Your Customer (KYC) rules will affect providers of autonomous wallets, miners, validators, and other independent network participants. All financial institutions in the U.S. will be required to report on measures to prevent money laundering, tax evasion, and other criminal activities. "This bill will close the gaps in our anti-money laundering regulations," Warren stated, referencing a report by the analytics firm Chainalysis, which indicated that from 2022 to 2024, stablecoins accounted for more than 50% of transactions by cybercriminals.

– Cathy Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, asserts that investors have begun shifting from gold to bitcoin following the launch of spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). "Bitcoin is growing relative to gold. The substitution of gold with bitcoin is in full swing. And we believe this will continue now that a less complex access to bitcoin has emerged," she stated.
Cathy Wood anticipates that bitcoin will emerge as a "risk-free asset" when the banking sector shows signs of weakness again. The market witnessed this firsthand in March 2023, during the "regional banking crisis" in the United States, which resulted in a 40% surge in the price of digital gold. (Recent analysis by Fidelity indicates that bitcoin's inverse correlation with banking interest rates disappeared in 2023, despite rising rates worldwide).
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 11, 2024, 11:49:06 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 12 - 16, 2024


EUR/USD: Dollar Dips but Promises a Rebound

Last week saw a scarcity of significant macroeconomic data. In anticipation of new drivers, market participants analysed the state of the US labour market and statements from Federal Reserve officials.

Data released on February 2 revealed that the number of new jobs in the US non-farm sector (Non-Farm Payrolls) increased by 353,000 in January, against the expected 180,000. This figure followed a December increase of 333,000. Unemployment remained stable at 3.7%, although experts had forecast a rise to 3.8%. Meanwhile, wage inflation grew to 4.5% on an annual basis, significantly exceeding market expectations of 4.1%. The report, issued on Thursday, February 8, was also robust, showing that the number of US citizens applying for unemployment benefits was 218K, down from 227K previously.

Thus, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's concerns proved unfounded. Recall that he recently suggested that if the labour market were to cool sharply, easing of monetary policy could occur quite rapidly. However, no cooling has occurred, so the FOMC members may not rush to a dovish pivot until they see convincing evidence of inflation dropping below the 2.0% target.

Subsequent comments from Fed representatives confirmed the low likelihood of an easing of national monetary policy in the near term. For instance, Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, stated that due to a strong labour market and economic growth, a rate cut is currently not advisable. Her colleague from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Thomas Barkin, expressed serious doubts about the sustainability of the inflation reduction pace, as price growth continues in the services and rental sectors. As the figures above indicate, wage inflation is also rising.

Against this backdrop of the regulator's representatives' hawkish stance, the probability of a rate cut in March has decreased, and according to the FedWatch Tool, it currently stands at only 15.5%, with May at 54.1%. In such conditions, bulls on the Dollar Index (DXY) feel significantly more confident than bears.

Regarding the euro, the common European currency has been significantly impacted by recent dovish statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials. Weak statistics from the Eurozone also support the case for an earlier start to monetary policy easing. A comparison of macroeconomic indicators between the Old and New Worlds suffices to illustrate this. Unemployment in the Eurozone stands at 6.4% compared to 3.7% in the US. European GDP in Q4 barely moved from a recessionary level of -0.1% to 0% (in contrast to the US, which saw a +3.3% increase). The service sector activity index dropped from 48.8 to 48.4 points, while the composite indicator, which includes both services and manufacturing, is at 47.9 points. Hence, both these indicators remain in the stagnation zone (below 50.0). In Germany, exports of goods decreased by 4.6% in December, and imports by 6.7%.

On the other hand, the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a crucial inflation indicator, showed a slight increase in consumer prices in Germany from 0.1% to 0.2% month-on-month, offering the euro some support by giving investors hope that the ECB may not be the first to cut rates. As a result, EUR/USD ended the week at 1.0785.   

A number of experts believe that the dollar's weakening last week was a corrective pullback, and the fundamental backdrop continues to favor the American currency. As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, February 9, 70% of experts voted for a strengthening of the dollar in the near future and a further decline of the pair. 15% sided with the euro, and an equal percentage adopted a neutral position. Oscillators on D1 share a similar view: 65% are coloured red, indicating a bearish outlook, 10% green, showing a bullish outlook, and 25% in neutral grey. Among trend indicators, the distribution of forces between red (bearish) and green (bullish) stands at 65% to 35%. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0725-1.0740, followed by 1.0680, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Bulls will encounter resistance at levels 1.0800-1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1110-1.1140, and 1.1230-1.1275.

The upcoming week's noteworthy events include the publication of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday, February 13. Market participants will analyse the latest Eurozone GDP data on February 14, the same day Valentine's Day is celebrated. American statistics on manufacturing activity, unemployment, and retail sales volume will be highlighted on Thursday, February 15. The week will conclude with the release of the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for January on Friday.

GBP/USD: Factors Supporting and Weighing on the Pound

On Friday, February 2, strong data from the US labour market strengthened the dollar and pushed GBP/USD from the upper boundary of the sideways channel at 1.2600-1.2800 to the lower end. The decline continued over the past week, with the pair finding a local bottom at 1.2518 on February 5. It is to the credit of the British currency that it managed to recover its losses and returned to the 1.2600 zone, which shifted from support to resistance.

Analysts believe that the British currency continues to be supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may be among the last to cut rates this year. It's worth noting that on February 1, the BoE held its meeting and kept the key rate at the previous level of 5.25%. However, the pound received support because two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee continued to vote for a rate hike of 25 basis points (bps). The following day, Catherine Mann explained that she voted for a rate increase because she is not confident that the decline in core inflation will continue in the near term. Another Committee member, Jonathan Haskel, acknowledged that inflationary pressures might be easing but noted that he would need additional evidence of this process before changing his stance on rate hike prospects.

Furthermore, GBP/USD is significantly influenced by market participants' risk appetite, which has been increasing, as evidenced by the quotations of stock indices such as the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. Consequently, hawkish remarks from Bank of England representatives and improved sentiment regarding risk have helped the pair offset its losses.

Working against the British currency is the fact that inflationary pressures are indeed starting to ease. According to the KPMG and the Recruitment & Employment Confederation's UK Report on Jobs, the wage inflation index decreased from 56.5 points to 55.8 points in January, indicating that wage growth in the country was at its slowest pace since March 2021. Thus, signs of cooling inflation serve as an argument for the Bank of England to begin cutting interest rates. At the regulator's last meeting, as mentioned, two members of the Committee voted for an increase in borrowing costs, eight for keeping the rate unchanged, and only one member voted for a reduction. However, if at the next meeting on March 21, the doves gain not just one but two or three votes, this could trigger active selling of the GBP/USD pair.

The pair concluded the past five-day period at the mark of 1.2630. Regarding the median forecast of analysts for the coming days, 50% voted for the pair's decline, 15% for its rise, and the remaining 35% abstained from commenting. Among the oscillators on D1, 50% indicate a downward direction, the remaining 50% look eastward, with none showing a preference for moving north. The situation with trend indicators is different, where a slight majority favors the British currency – 60% pointing north and the remaining 40% south. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2595, 1.2570, 1.2495-1.2515, 1.2450, 1.2330, 1.2210, 1.2070-1.2085. In case of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2695-1.2725, 1.2785-1.2820, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

Regarding the UK economy, the upcoming week's calendar highlights include a speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey on Monday, February 12. A significant amount of statistics from the British labour market will be released on Tuesday, February 14. On Wednesday, February 15, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values will be announced, followed by the country's GDP indicators on February 16. The week's stream of statistics will conclude on Friday, February 16, with the publication of data on retail sales in the UK.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 11, 2024, 11:50:29 AM
USD/JPY: The Pair's Flight to the Moon Continues

Thanks to the hawkish rhetoric from Federal Reserve representatives, USD/JPY continued to rise last week, coming close to the psychological resistance level of 150.00. It likely would have breached this level, but market participants are exercising caution ahead of the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release in the US, which is scheduled for February 13.

The yen continues to be under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) persistent dovish stance. Investors observe that the regulator still has no intention of raising interest rates. On Thursday, February 8, BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida stated that "the future course of rates depends on economic and price developments" and that monetary policy conditions in the Japanese economy are on a deeply negative trajectory, with no expectations of aggressive inflation. The following day, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda traditionally spoke, stating that "the chances of maintaining accommodative conditions are high even if negative rates are abandoned."

From this, the market concluded that if any changes are to be made to the central bank's monetary policy, they will occur very slowly and it's uncertain when. The investors' reaction is evident in the USD/JPY chart: a local maximum was recorded at 149.57, with the week's final note hitting at 149.25.

Regarding the near-term outlook for USD/JPY, experts' opinions are evenly divided: a third anticipate further growth, another third expect a decline, and the remaining third have chosen to remain neutral. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 unanimously point north, indicating bullish sentiment, but 25% of the oscillators are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 148.25-148.40, followed by 147.65, 146.85-147.15, 145.90-146.10, 144.90-145.30, 143.50, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels are found at 149.65-150.00, 150.75, and 151.70-151.90.

Among the significant events related to the Japanese economy, the publication of the country's GDP data on Thursday, February 15, stands out. Traders should also be aware that Monday, February 12, is a public holiday in Japan: the country observes National Foundation Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Why Bitcoin Is Rising

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/11/v4ZD3.jpeg)

"Halving: Grief or Joy?" was the question we posed in the title of our previous review. The debate on this matter does not subside but, on the contrary, becomes more intense as April approaches.

The process of profit-taking after the approval of bitcoin spot ETFs on January 10 has ended. However, a new threat looms over the market now. And this threat is the miners. Scott Melker, a renowned trader, investor, and host of the podcast "The Wolf of All Streets," writes the following: "The bitcoin halving will occur when the number of mined blocks reaches 840,000 in April 2024, at which point the block reward will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC. Essentially, this means that the issuance of new coins will be halved. It will become twice as hard for miners to earn money from mining bitcoin."

The halving is tentatively scheduled for April 19, meaning there are roughly two months left. If the price of digital gold does not show significant growth in this period, the majority of miners will face a sharp liquidity shortage. Therefore, to replenish their liquidity, they may start actively selling their BTC holdings, which would exert significant pressure on the market.

According to estimates, bitcoin miners still had about 1.8 million BTC worth approximately $85 billion (at current prices). And now, CryptoQuant has announced that the reserves of these companies have fallen to their lowest level since July 2021. Currently, the wallets of mining pools hold the lowest volume of cryptocurrency since the so-called "Great Migration" of miners from China to other countries in Eurasia and North America. Coins have moved from miners' autonomous wallets to exchanges.

Bitfinex also observes an influx of bitcoins to exchange addresses associated with mining companies. Analysts believe that at some point, a large-scale coin dump could occur, which is concerning. However, miners are holding onto their reserves for the time being, despite reduced transaction fee revenues. According to CryptoQuant, their daily sales have dropped and are now less than 300 BTC.

The situation of mining companies is also complicated by the decline in the production volumes of new coins. According to TheMinerMag, BTC mining by U.S. miners dropped to historical lows in January due to a 29-50% increase in electricity tariffs. High electricity costs are expected to persist until the end of Q1 2024. Therefore, if the trend continues, a certain bitcoin supply deficit will be observed before the halving amid growing demand. And the fact that demand is increasing is confirmed by analysts at Santiment, who note a sharp increase in the number of "whales" owning more than 1,000 BTC. Naturally, this pushes BTC/USD upwards.

From February 7 to 9, bitcoin's price showed a sharp surge, reaching a peak of $48,145. In this rally, in addition to the reasons mentioned, the global increase in risk appetites of major investors likely played the most significant role. The inflow of capital into stock markets also benefited the crypto market. According to IntoTheBlock, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 index was negative at the end of January but has since returned. Another reason some experts cite for the digital gold's price increase is the approach of the New Year according to the Chinese calendar. It is noted that the price of cryptocurrency always rises in anticipation of this date.

Overall, most forecasts for the entirety of 2024 look quite optimistic, with some being very optimistic. Scott Melker, for instance, believes that the halving could lead to a rise in bitcoin's price to $240,000. "After the previous halving, the BTC price updated its maximum from $20,000 to $69,000, which is a 250% increase," he writes. "Thus, if the situation repeats this time, the next maximum after $69,000 will be $240,000." "I know it might seem like an exaggeration," Melker continues. "This cycle has worked in the past. But until I see it fail [this time], I'm willing to bet that bitcoin will exceed $200,000."

According to ARK Invest CEO Cathy Wood, investors have begun shifting from gold to bitcoin following the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs. "Bitcoin is growing relative to gold. The substitution of gold with bitcoin is in full swing. And we think this will continue...," she stated.

Echoing Cathy Wood's sentiment is the popular blogger and analyst PlanB. "After the upcoming halving, bitcoin will become scarcer than gold and real estate," he writes. "This implies that the cryptocurrency could reach a price of around $500,000." Based on his Stock-to-Flow model, the expert suggested that the market capitalization of the digital asset might not surpass that of gold – over $10 trillion. However, approaching this mark and a supply limit of 20 million coins would lead to the stated price. PlanB did not specify a timeframe for reaching this price, but he did mention a minimum price level that, in his opinion, the primary cryptocurrency will not fall below. According to PlanB, the BTC price has historically never dropped below the 200-week moving average. (At the time of writing the review, the 200WMA is around $32,000). Another analyst, known by the nickname ali_charts, believes that the critical support level is now $42,560.

Renowned trader, investor, and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, like PlanB, believes that the value of bitcoin could reach $500,000. The expert highlighted that there are numerous factors that will cause explosive growth in the flagship coin's rate. Among these are the current state of the market, the launch of BTC ETFs, inflow of funds from institutional investors, among others. The halving is considered a significant factor, after which a bullish growth of the cryptocurrency market is expected. Van De Poppe suggests that the current cycle might be slightly longer than previous ones, due to the entry of institutional players into the market and changes in the overall direction of industry development.

Van De Poppe believes that a scenario where the value of bitcoin soon reaches the key resistance level of $48,000 is quite plausible. This would be followed by another correction, resulting in a 20% price drop to $38,400. After the halving, the value of BTC will begin to rise again and reach a local peak by the autumn.

Elon Musk's company xAI developed Artificial Intelligence Grok, which has made two predictions regarding Ethereum, the main competitor to the leading cryptocurrency: 1) by the end of 2024, the price of ETH will range from $4,000 to $5,000; 2) within the year, the value of ETH could peak at $6,500. Grok highly values Ethereum's prospects due to the development of this altcoin's ecosystem and the Dencun update. This upgrade will increase the ETH blockchain's scalability level and significantly reduce transaction processing costs. The Dencun deployment took place in the Goerli test network on January 17th, and in the Sepolia test network on January 30th. The launch of Dencun in the main network is scheduled for March 13th. (It's worth noting that this update has already become one of the reasons why large ETH coin holders have started moving their assets from long-inactive wallets. Recently, such a "whale" moved 492 ETH worth over $1.1 million from a wallet that had been dormant for more than eight years).

Grok also considers the potential approval of spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of May as a catalyst for the altcoin's price growth. Six major American companies have submitted applications for these derivatives to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

However, the situation is not so straightforward. We have previously quoted SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's statement that positive decisions regarding spot ETFs exclusively concern bitcoin-based exchange products. According to Gensler, this decision "in no way signals a readiness to approve listing standards for crypto assets that are securities." Recall that the regulator still refers to bitcoin as a commodity, while "the vast majority of crypto assets, in his view, are investment contracts (i.e., securities)."

Last week, it was revealed that the SEC had postponed its decision on applications from Invesco and Galaxy. The agency had previously postponed the review date for other applications. "The only date that matters for spot ETH-ETFs at the moment is May 23. This is the deadline for the VanEck application," Bloomberg notes.

Analysts at investment bank TD Cowen believe it is unlikely that the SEC will make any decision before the second half of 2024. "Before approving an ETH-ETF, the SEC will want to gain practical experience with similar investment instruments in bitcoins," commented Jaret Seiberg, head of the TD Cowen Washington Research Group. TD Cowen believes the SEC will return to the discussion of Ethereum ETFs only after the U.S. presidential elections in November 2024.

Senior JP Morgan analyst Nikolaos Panagirtzoglou also does not expect the prompt approval of spot ETH-ETFs. For the SEC to make a decision, it needs to classify Ethereum as a commodity, not a security. However, JP Morgan considers this event unlikely in the near future.

The cryptocurrency market has shown impressive growth over the past week. As of the evening of February 9, BTC/USD is trading in the $47,500 zone, and ETH/USD at $2,500. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $1.78 trillion (up from $1.65 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to 72 points (from 63 a week ago) and remains in the Greed zone.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 14, 2024, 04:01:23 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/14/v0RHj.jpeg)

– The price of bitcoin surged past $51,700 on 14 February, reaching a new high since 2021. This bull rally is largely attributed to the commencement of operations by nine leading spot bitcoin ETFs. According to The Block, a month after their launch, their assets exceeded 200,000 BTC (about $10 billion). These new bitcoin ETFs have risen to second place in the ranking of commodity exchange-traded funds in the US by asset volume, becoming a more popular investment instrument than silver ETFs. Observers have highlighted a statement from investment giant BlackRock, noting, "Investor interest in bitcoin remains high, hence the fund is ready to purchase even more BTC."
Documenting Bitcoin reports that Wall Street representatives are currently purchasing 12.5 times more BTC coins daily than the network can produce. Researchers believe this is the key driver behind the increased demand and price for the flagship crypto asset.

– Analysts at CryptoQuant have identified another factor that could lead to an increase in the price of BTC in 2024 and 2025: the upcoming halving. The researchers emphasised that this event significantly reduces the supply of bitcoin approximately every four years. They also agree that the recent approval of spot bitcoin ETFs has been one of the most powerful bullish factors for the growth in value of the leading cryptocurrency.
CryptoQuant also noted a significant increase in the number of active wallets, indicating a long-term upward trend. "Considering the reduction in supply, increased demand, and various economic and social issues, particularly the expected ongoing inflation, bitcoin is likely to strengthen its position as a long-term alternative investment asset with an upward trend," the analysts conclude.

– Anthony Pompliano, co-founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital, also highlighted the success of the recent launch of spot BTC ETFs. The fact that BlackRock and Fidelity were able to attract $3 billion each in record time marks a historic event for exchange-traded funds.
"Wall Street is not just in love with bitcoin," the financier wrote, "they are in an active love affair. The daily supply of bitcoin to funds is limited to just 900 BTC, which equates to approximately $40-45 million. Meanwhile, the daily net inflow of funds into BTC ETFs already equals $500 million. This is a clear indicator of a BTC shortage and its bullish impact on the price of the cryptocurrency and the market as a whole," Pompliano stated, noting the imbalance between the market supply of bitcoin and the demand from Wall Street companies.
The billionaire is optimistic about the future trajectory of BTC and asserts that with the demand from Wall Street continuing, especially considering the upcoming halving, the top cryptocurrency by market capitalization could significantly surpass its historical highs.

– The appearance of photographs with laser eyes in the personal accounts of US President Joe Biden sparked a wave of discussion within the crypto community. This led to speculation on whether Biden has become a supporter of bitcoin or if this was a strategic move for his 2024 presidential campaign to gain the support of crypto investors. There was also speculation that Biden's account might have been hacked.
It's important to remember that the "laser eyes" phenomenon is typically used as a symbol to demonstrate a bullish outlook on bitcoin. It emerged as part of a social media movement aimed at driving the price of BTC to $100,000 by the end of 2021, a goal that was not achieved. Among the most famous personalities who once featured laser eyes were Paris Hilton and Elon Musk.

– Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital and former White House official, believes that some retail investors might think they have missed the opportunity to buy bitcoin. His unequivocal response is, "No, it's not too late." In addition to the launch of spot BTC ETFs and the halving, Scaramucci highlighted the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve. "The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday, 13 February, signalled that inflation may not be as under control as the Fed would like," the investor writes. Based on data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index for January showed an inflation rate of 3.1%. The data also led to speculation that the Fed's reduction of interest rates in March and May is likely off the table.
According to Scaramucci, the delay in rate cuts could lead to turbulent trading in the mainstream market but will act as a boom for the crypto world, as bitcoin is used as a hedge against inflation.

– Glassnode has identified that numerous on-chain indicators are now in what's termed the "risk zone." This assessment leverages a variety of metrics that analyze a comprehensive array of data pertaining to hodlers' behaviour, covering both short-term and long-term investment cycles. Experts have noted that a heightened risk level is typically observed at the beginning stages of a bull market. This phenomenon occurs as hodlers might start securing profits upon reaching a "significant level" of return.
Specifically, the MVRV ratio, which monitors the activity of long-term hodlers, has reached a critical zone. Such a high ratio (2.06) has not been seen since the FTX collapse. Currently, a "high" to "very high" risk status is also attributed to six out of the nine remaining metrics. These metrics highlight a relatively low level of profits being realized, in spite of the recent weeks' active price surge, as explained by the specialists.

– In the first two days of this week, the S&P 500 index fell from 5051 to 4922 points. Robert Kiyosaki, the renowned author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," financier, and writer, has once again issued a stark warning that this stock index is on the brink of a massive crash, with a potential plunge of up to 70%. He accompanied this statement with his consistent recommendation to invest in solid assets such as gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Kiyosaki argues that financial advisors tend to direct their clients towards traditional investments due to their historical appeal and the significant commissions they earn from these recommendations. However, he emphasizes that historical data actually supports the superiority of solid assets, particularly gold, which has outperformed the S&P 500 index over decades. Kiyosaki firmly believes that diversification and the inclusion of solid assets in investment portfolios can be a wise strategy to mitigate potential losses in market volatility. He has called on investors to reassess their strategies and choose knowledgeable financial advisors.

– A popular analyst on Platform X, known as EGRAG CRYPTO, believes that the market capitalization of bitcoin will reach $2 trillion by September this year. Based on this, the price of the leading cryptocurrency will exceed $100,000. "Prepare for the journey of your life," EGRAG CRYPTO urges his followers. "Hold on tight, as you are witnessing a cryptocurrency revolution. Don't blink, or you might miss this historic moment in financial history!"

– During Q3 2023, the billionaire Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, known as the founder and former CEO of PayPal, invested $200 million in bitcoin and Ethereum. The amount was evenly distributed between the first and second cryptocurrencies, as informed sources told Reuters. According to the agency's information, this move marked the return of some institutional players to digital assets after the collapse of FTX and the subsequent regulatory pressure.
As one of the first venture crypto investors, Founders Fund began aggressively purchasing bitcoin back in 2014 but sold off this asset before the market crash in 2022, securing a profit of approximately $1.8 billion. In 2023, Founders Fund made its first purchases when the digital gold was valued below $30,000. Considering the current price, this operation has resulted in an unrealized profit of over 65%.

– Trader and entrepreneur Andrew Kang believes it's a mistake to attribute the current rise in bitcoin to the start of spot BTC ETF operations. "People seem to forget that there was a huge ongoing demand for bitcoin even before these exchange-traded funds were approved," Kang writes. "Meanwhile, BTC has become an almost trillion-dollar asset and has been consistently growing over the last decade." "Just the assumption that cryptocurrency owners allocate just 1% of their income to BTC annually should lead us to conclude: the potential cash flow into bitcoins could reach at least $52 billion per year, or almost $150 million per day."
Furthermore, Andrew Kang is convinced that his assessment of the situation is quite conservative and likely does not account for business and institutional financial flows. The expert is confident that the market demand for the asset will more than absorb all the volumes from expected sales of bitcoins, both from miners and large holders like the Mt.Gox exchange.

– US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has recently asserted that US banks are very strong, a claim met with sarcasm by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes, who noted that New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) might disagree.
Last week, the US banking sector was engulfed in fear as NYCB reported a colossal quarterly loss of $252 million. The bank's total loan losses quintupled to $552 million, fuelled by concerns over commercial real estate. Following this report, NYCB's stock plummeted by 40% in one day, leading to a downturn in the US Regional Banks Index.
Arthur Hayes recalled the bitcoin rally triggered by the banking crisis in March 2023, when three major US banks failed within five days. "Yeah... From solid to bankrupt, that's the future. And then there will be even more money, printers... and BTC at $1 million," he commented on the NYCB failure.

– Popular blogger and analyst Lark Davis believes investors have 692 days to become wealthy. He discussed the importance of market cycles and the timely sale of assets. Davis noted that if traders pay attention, they can make a lot of money in the next two years. According to the expert, 2024 will offer the last chance to buy digital assets, while 2025 will be the best time to sell them. However, he advises against selling everything at once, recommending a gradual profit-taking strategy instead. Lark Davis also warned that a "Great Depression" will begin in the global economy and the cryptocurrency market in 2026. Failing to sell in time could result in significant losses.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 17, 2024, 12:53:21 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 19 - 23, 2024


EUR/USD: A Week of Mixed Data

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/17/YZUFJ.jpeg)

The macroeconomic statistics released last week were mixed in both the United States and the Eurozone. As a result, EUR/USD failed to break through either the 1.0700 support or the 1.0800 resistance, continuing to move within a narrow sideways channel.

The US dollar received a strong bullish impulse on Tuesday, February 14, following the release of US inflation data. The Dollar Index (DXY) surged by more than 0.5% and nearly reached the 105.00 resistance level. Consequently, EUR/USD moved downward, towards the lower boundary of the specified sideways range. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 stock index fell from 5051 to 4922 points.

It can be said that the US inflation data caught the markets off guard. Some analysts even described them as shocking. It turned out that the final victory over prices is not as close as it seemed before, and that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to start lowering interest rates anytime soon.

In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) sharply increased against the backdrop of a significant rise in the cost of rent, food, and healthcare services. On a monthly basis, the overall index accelerated from 0.2% to 0.3%. On an annual basis, the CPI was 3.1%, which is below the previous value of 3.4%, but significantly above the forecast of 2.9%. Excluding the volatile prices of food and energy, inflation in January rose from 0.3% to 0.4% month-on-month, while the annual core CPI remained at the previous level of 3.9%, although analysts had forecast a decrease to 3.8%. Particularly sharp was the increase in so-called "super-core inflation," which also excludes housing costs. In January, on a monthly basis, it reached 0.8%: the highest level since April 2022.

Certainly, the Federal Reserve's achievements in combating inflation are significant. It is worth recalling that in the summer of 2022, the CPI reached a 40-year peak at 9.1%. However, the current inflation rate is still almost twice the target level of 2.0%. Based on this, the market concluded that the Federal Reserve is now unlikely to rush into easing monetary policy and will probably maintain high interest rates for longer than previously anticipated. At the beginning of January, according to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate cut in May was 54.1%. After the inflation report was released, this figure dropped to 35%. An even lower probability is given by the monitoring tool developed by Investing.com. The possibility of a dovish pivot in March, according to its readings, stands at 5%, and in May – around 30% (just a few weeks ago, it was over 90%). As for the beginning of summer, the probability of a reduction in the cost of borrowing through federal funds in June is estimated at 75%.

The inflation report was a boon for dollar bulls, but their joy was short-lived. The data on industrial production and retail sales in the US released on Thursday, February 16, were weaker than expected. In January, retail sales showed a decline of -0.8% compared to the December increase of 0.4% and the forecast of -0.1%. As a result, the dollar was under pressure, and the EUR/USD pendulum swung in the opposite direction: the pair headed towards the upper boundary of the 1.0700-1.0800 channel.

The dollar received a slight boost at the very end of the workweek. On Friday, February 16, the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated that industrial inflation in January rose just as consumer inflation did. Against a forecast of 0.1%, the actual increase was 0.3% month-on-month, which is 0.4% higher than December's figure. On an annual basis, the PPI rose by 2.0% (forecast 1.6%, previous value 1.7%). However, this support was soon offset by a drop in the University of Michigan's US Consumer Confidence Index, which, although it increased from 79.0 to 79.6, was below the forecast of 80.0 points.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the news was also rather contradictory, resulting in the European statistics not being able to significantly support its currency. The February Economic Sentiment Index from ZEW in Germany improved more than expected, rising to 19.9 from 15.2 in the previous month. The economic sentiment indicator for the Eurozone as a whole also showed growth, moving from 22.7 points to 25.0. However, the assessment of the current situation fell to -81.7, the lowest level since June 2020.

Preliminary GDP data for Q4 2023, released on Wednesday, February 14, showed that the Eurozone is in a state of stagnation. On a quarterly basis, the figures remained at 0%, and on an annual basis, they were at 0.1%, exactly matching forecasts. This statistic did not add optimism, and markets continued to exercise caution, fearing that the Eurozone economy might slip into recession.

Europe faces a significantly sharper choice between supporting the economy and fighting inflation compared to the United States. Isabel Schnabel, a member of the Executive Board of the ECB and a well-known hawk, stated on Friday, February 16, that the regulator's monetary policy must remain restrictive until the ECB is confident that inflation has sustainably returned to the medium-term target level of 2.0%. Furthermore, Ms. Schnabel believes that persistently low labour productivity growth increases the risk that companies may pass their higher labour costs on to consumers, which could delay the achievement of the inflation target.

However, despite such hawkish statements, according to a ZEW survey, more than two-thirds of business representatives still hope for an easing of the ECB's monetary policy within the next six months. The probability of a rate cut for the euro in April is currently estimated by the markets at about 53%.

After all the fluctuations of EUR/USD, the final note of the past week was struck at the level of 1.0776. At the time of writing this review, on the evening of Friday, February 16, 55% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar in the near future and the further fall of the pair. 30% sided with the euro, while 15% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, 60% are coloured red, 40% in neutral-grey, and none in green. The ratio among trend indicators is different: 60% red and 40% green. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0725-1.0740, followed by 1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450. Bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0800-1.0820, 1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1110-1.1140, 1.1230-1.1275.

Among the events of the upcoming week, the minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve, which will be published on Wednesday, February 21, are of great interest. The following day, a powerful flow of data on business activity (PMI) in Germany, the Eurozone, and the US will be released. Moreover, on Thursday, February 22, the January figure for the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US will be known. Towards the very end of the workweek, on Friday, February 23, data on Germany's GDP, the main engine of the European economy, will arrive. Additionally, traders should keep in mind that Monday, February 19, is a holiday in the United States: the country observes Presidents' Day.

GBP/USD: What's Happening with the UK Economy?

As is known, following the meeting that concluded on February 1, the Bank of England (BoE) announced the maintenance of the bank rate at the previous level of 5.25%. The accompanying statement mentioned that "more evidence is needed that the Consumer Price Index will fall to 2.0% and remain at that level before considering rate cuts."

On February 15, Catharine Mann, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the regulator, provided the most comprehensive overview of the state of the British economy, including aspects concerning inflation. The key points of her analysis were as follows: "The latest GDP data confirm that the second half of 2023 was weak. However, GDP data is a rearview mirror. On the other hand, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and other leading indicators look promising. The unemployment rate in the UK remains relatively low, and the labour market continues to be tight. Wage growth is slowing, but the pace remains problematic for the target Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator. In the UK, goods prices may become deflationary at some point, but not on a long-term basis. Inflation in the UK's services sector is much more persistent than in the EU or the US." Consequently, Catharine Mann's conclusion was: "Mitigating the sources of inflation will be crucial in decision-making" and "Before making a decision on further actions, the Bank of England needs to receive at least one more inflation report."

Referring to specific figures, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), published on February 16, showed that retail sales in the UK in January increased by 3.4% against the expected 1.5% and a decline of -3.3% in December (month-on-month). The core figure (excluding automotive fuel retail sales) rose by 3.2% over the month against a forecast of 1.7% and -3.5% in December. On an annual basis, retail sales also showed growth of 0.7% against the expected decline of -1.4% and a December figure of -2.4%.

Labour market data also supports the pound. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% from 4.2%, against expectations of 4.0%. The reduction in the number of active job seekers in the labour market intensifies competition among employers, which helps maintain a higher wage growth rate. For the three months to December, wage growth was 5.8%. Such strong labour market statistics, complemented by high inflation (CPI 4.0% year-on-year, core CPI 5.1% year-on-year), are likely to push back the anticipated date for easing the Bank of England's monetary policy. Many analysts do not rule out that ultimately, the BoE may be among the last mega-regulators to cut rates this year.

GBP/USD ended the week at the level of 1.2599. According to economists at Scotiabank, the 1.2500 zone represents strong long-term support for it, and a confident move above 1.2610 will strengthen the pound and set GBP/USD on a growth path towards 1.2700. Regarding the median forecast of analysts for the coming days, 65% voted for the pair's decline, 20% for its rise, and the remaining 15% maintained neutrality. Among the oscillators on D1, 75% point south, the remaining 25% look east, with none willing to move north. The situation is different with trend indicators, where there is a slight bias in favour of the British currency – 60% indicate north, while the remaining 40% point south. If the pair moves south, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2570, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330, 1.2185, 1.2070-1.2090, 1.2035. In case of an increase, the pair will meet resistance at levels 1.2635, 1.2695-1.2725, 1.2775-1.2820, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

Thursday, February 22 stands out in the calendar for the upcoming week. On this day, a batch of data on business activity (PMI) in various sectors of the economy of the United Kingdom will be released. The release of other significant macroeconomic statistics in the coming days is not anticipated.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 17, 2024, 01:03:01 PM
USD/JPY: The Flight Continues

On Tuesday, February 13, USD/JPY reached another local maximum at 150.88. The Japanese currency retreated again, this time against the backdrop of inflation data in the US. The yen also continues to be under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) consistent dovish stance. On February 8, Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida expressed doubts that the regulator would start to quickly raise its benchmark rate anytime soon. Last Friday, February 16, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda spoke in a similar vein. He stated that the issue of maintaining or changing monetary policy, including the negative interest rate, would only be considered "when there is a chance of sustainable and stable achievement of the price level target." Ueda declined to comment on short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate and the factors behind these movements.

In general, there's nothing new. However, many analysts continue to hope that in 2024 the Bank of Japan will finally decide to tighten its monetary policy. "We believe," write economists at the Swiss financial holding UBS, "that the normalization of the Bank of Japan's policy this year will occur against the backdrop of strong negotiations on wage increases and corporate profitability. We still believe that the Japanese yen is likely at a turning point after significant depreciation from 2021 to 2023. Considering that the yield differential between 10-year U.S. and Japanese bonds will narrow over the year, we believe the current entry point for buying yen is attractive."

A similar position is held at Danske Bank, where they forecast a sustainable decrease in USD/JPY below 140.00 on a 12-month horizon. "This is primarily because we expect limited growth in yields in the US," say strategists at this bank. "Therefore, we expect the yield differential to become a tailwind for the yen throughout the year, as the G10 central banks, with the exception of the Bank of Japan, are likely to start rate-cutting cycles."

Regarding the short-term outlook, specialists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank Limited believe that the dollar still has the potential to test 151.00 before weakening. "The risk of the US dollar rising to 152.00 will remain unchanged as long as it stays above 149.55," UOB states. This position is supported by only 25% of experts, with the majority (60%) already siding with the yen, and the remaining 15% preferring to maintain neutrality. Among the trend indicators and oscillators on D1, all 100% point north, however, 25% of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 149.65, followed by 148.25-148.40, 147.65, 146.65-146.85, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels are located at the following levels and zones - 150.65-150.90, 151.70-152.00.

No significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week. Moreover, it is important to note that Friday, February 23, is a public holiday in Japan: the country observes the Emperor's Birthday.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin Breaks Records

Last week, the price of bitcoin rose above $52,790, setting a new peak since 2021. According to CoinGecko, the market capitalization of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $1.0 trillion for the first time in two years, and the total market capitalization of the entire crypto market rose above $2.0 trillion for the first time since April 2022.

Much of this bull rally is attributed to the launch of nine leading spot bitcoin ETFs. According to The Block, a month after their launch, their assets exceeded 200,000 BTC (about $10 billion). The new bitcoin ETFs rose to second place in the ranking of US commodity exchange-traded funds by asset volume, becoming a more popular investment instrument than silver ETFs. Observers note BlackRock's statement that "interest in bitcoin among investors remains high," hence the fund is ready to buy even more BTC.

According to Documenting Bitcoin, the net interest from ETF issuers exceeds 12,000 BTC per day. Thus, Wall Street representatives are currently buying 12.5 times more BTC coins daily than the network can produce. Researchers believe this has been a key driver of the price increase for the flagship crypto asset.

Morgan Creek Digital co-founder and partner Anthony Pompliano also highlighted the success of the newly launched spot BTC-ETFs. According to him, the fact that BlackRock and Fidelity managed to attract $3 billion each in record short times was a historic event for exchange-traded funds. "Wall Street is not just in love with bitcoin," the financier wrote. "They are in an active love affair. The daily supply of bitcoins to funds is limited to just 900 BTC, which corresponds to approximately $40-45 million. Meanwhile, the daily net inflow of funds into BTC-ETFs already equals $500 million (max. $651 million). This is a clear indicator of BTC scarcity and its bullish impact on the cryptocurrency's price and the market as a whole," Pompliano stated, noting the imbalance between the market supply of bitcoin and demand from Wall Street companies. The billionaire is optimistic about BTC's future trajectory and asserts that with continued demand from Wall Street, especially considering the upcoming halving, the top-capitalization cryptocurrency could significantly exceed its historical highs.

CryptoQuant noted that, in addition to the demand from BTC-ETFs, the number of active wallets is also significantly increasing. This too indicates a long-term upward trend. "Given the reduction in supply, increased demand, and various economic and social issues, especially ongoing inflation, bitcoin is likely to strengthen its position as a long-term alternative investment asset with an upward trend," analysts conclude.

SkyBridge Capital founder and former White House senior official Anthony Scaramucci also emphasized inflation. Beyond the launch of spot BTC-ETFs and the halving, Scaramucci pointed to the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve as a driver for Bitcoin's growth. "The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Tuesday, February 13, signalled that inflation may not be as under control as the Fed would like," the investor writes. "Based on data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index for January showed inflation at 3.1%. The data also sparked speculation that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in March and May is likely off the table." Delays in rate cuts can cause turbulent trading in the main market but will serve as a boom for the crypto world, as Bitcoin is used as a hedge against inflation. Therefore, according to Scaramucci, the time to invest profitably in digital gold has not yet passed.

Popular blogger and analyst Lark Davis shared a similar position: he believes investors have about 700 days to get rich. Discussing the importance of market cycles and the timely sale of assets, the specialist noted that if traders are attentive, they can make a lot of money in the next two years. According to the expert, 2024 will be the last chance to buy digital assets, and 2025 will be the best time to sell them. The specialist emphasized the importance of not disposing of everything at once but gradually securing profits. Lark Davis also warned that in 2026, a "Great Depression" will begin in the global economy and the cryptocurrency market. And if not sold in time, investments could be lost.

The onset of the "Great Depression" is also predicted by the famous author of "Rich Dad Poor Dad," financier, and writer Robert Kiyosaki. He believes that the S&P 500 index is on the verge of a monumental crash with a potential collapse of a full 70%. He accompanied this statement with his consistent recommendation to invest in assets such as gold, silver, and bitcoins.

Ex-CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, identified another driver for Bitcoin's growth related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Last week, the US banking sector was gripped by fear as New York Community Bancorp (NYCB) reported a colossal quarterly loss of $252 million. The bank's total loan losses increased fivefold to $552 million, fuelled by concerns over commercial real estate. Following the release of this report, NYCB shares fell 40% in one day, leading to a decline in the US Regional Banks Index.

Arthur Hayes recalled the Bitcoin rally triggered by the banking crisis in March 2023, when three major American banks, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Silvergate Bank, went bankrupt within five days. The crisis was caused by an increase in the Federal Reserve's refinancing rate and, as a consequence, the outflow of deposit accounts. Its biggest victims also included Credit Suisse and First Republic Bank. To prevent the crisis from affecting even more banks, global industry regulators, primarily the Fed, intervened to provide liquidity. "Yeah... From rock to bankruptcy, that's the future. And then there will be even more money, printers... and BTC at $1 million," the ex-CEO of BitMEX commented on the current NYCB failure.

Popular analyst on the X platform known as Egrag Crypto believes that by September this year, Bitcoin's market capitalization will reach $2.0 trillion. Based on this, the price of the leading cryptocurrency at that moment will exceed $100,000. "Get ready for the journey of your life," Egrag Crypto urges his followers. "Hold on tight, as you are witnessing a cryptocurrency revolution. Don't blink, or you might miss this historic moment in financial history!"

As of the evening of February 16, when this review was written, the BTC/USD pair is trading in the $52,000 zone. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $1.95 trillion ($1.78 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains in the Greed zone at a level of 72 points.

– It's worth noting that the Greed zone corresponds to a situation where traders are actively buying an asset that is increasing in price. However, Glassnode warns that many on-chain indicators have already entered the so-called "risk zone". The analysis is based on a group of indicators that consider a wide range of data regarding investor behaviour. Their combination covers both short-term and long-term cycles. In particular, the MVRV indicator, which tracks long-term investors, has approached the critical zone. Such a high value (2.06) has not been observed since the FTX collapse. A similar "high" and "very high" risk status is currently characteristic of six out of the remaining nine metrics. They record a relatively low level of realized profit considering the active price increase in recent weeks. According to observations by Glassnode specialists, a high risk indicator is usually observed in the early stages of a bull market. This is because, having reached a "significant level" of profitability, hodlers may start to secure profits, which, consequently, could lead to a strong correction downwards.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 20, 2024, 09:02:00 AM
New Unique Accumulative Margin Call Bonus Will Aid NordFX Traders in Tough Situations

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/20/Yt8NH.jpeg)

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No one is immune to mistakes, and at some point, even the most experienced trader may receive a notification that there might not be enough funds in their account to maintain open trading positions. To avoid a disaster, they need to urgently replenish their deposit, or their positions will be forcibly closed, resulting in losses.

Previously, traders faced with this situation had two painful options: either accept the losses or urgently find additional funds. This is why a Margin Call is rightfully considered one of the biggest fears for traders. Now, NordFX clients have a "cure for fear", the Margin Call Bonus: a painless way to navigate out of a difficult situation.

The uniqueness of this bonus lies in the fact that traders earn bonus funds themselves: the more actively they deposit and trade, the larger the bonus they can receive. The bonus amount is automatically calculated based on the trading volume (in lots) executed in their account before a Margin Call occurs.

For detailed information on the Margin Call Bonus program's rules, please visit NordFX site.

Registering for the program and requesting the bonus credit is very straightforward and can be done in the NordFX Trader's Cabinet.

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 21, 2024, 02:13:16 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/02/21/YkF0a.jpeg)

– Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, forecasts an 85% chance that bitcoin will reach a new all-time high within the next six months, potentially surpassing $70,000. He identifies five growth catalysts.
1. The halving in April, marking the fourth reduction of the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, which is expected to decrease selling pressure. Outumuro suggests bitcoin could reach a new all-time high (ATH) just a month after the halving.
2. The continued influx of funds into spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) based on bitcoin could act as a second growth catalyst. While the duration of this strong inflow remains uncertain, its persistence could bolster the cryptocurrency's price through increased demand.
3. IntoTheBlock believes the Federal Reserve's tight stance on interest rates in 2022 laid the groundwork for a bear cycle not only in the crypto market but also across other risk assets. With inflation dropping from 10% to 3% by 2024, many anticipate a policy shift by the Federal Reserve towards cutting interest rates, likely driving the recent rally in both bitcoin and stocks. The expert notes that bitcoin's price movement has been more closely aligned with traditional assets recently, enhancing its correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 to two-month highs.
4. The US presidential election, although current President Joe Biden is generally opposed to digital assets, the election campaigns tend to have a positive impact on the crypto market. IntoTheBlock's report states, "Polymarket currently gives Biden only a 33% chance of re-election, making Donald Trump, who is significantly more crypto-friendly, the most likely victor." However, to boost the incumbent's re-election chances, the Federal Reserve might adopt a more aggressive easing of its monetary policy, encouraging an influx of funds into both the stock and crypto markets.
5. Hedge funds are considered an unexpected growth driver by Outumuro. He recalls that when bitcoin recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, traditional financial giants first acknowledged the cryptocurrency's potential. The introduction of spot bitcoin ETFs provided hedge funds with an opportunity to accumulate a new asset class, thus increasing demand from traditional investors and leading to greater adoption and acceptance of digital assets.
However, IntoTheBlock notes that these scenarios could change due to various factors. For instance, if the Federal Reserve does not ease its policy, bitcoin could face a 10% correction. The development of geopolitical conflicts could also negatively impact the price of digital gold. The experts do not rule out unexpected selling pressure in the event of major player bankruptcies.

– Analysts at investment bank Goldman Sachs have revised their forecast for the S&P 500 index after it surpassed 5,000 points. They have set a year-end target for the index at 5,200, indicating a 3.9% increase from its current level. As previously noted by IntoTheBlock observations, the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 is increasing, suggesting that the coin's value will rise alongside the US stock market.

– According to the Financial Times, hackers linked to North Korea are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to aid their efforts. In 2023, they launched 1.3 million attacks against South Korean companies and government agencies. Previously, their attempts often failed due to poor language skills and a lack of understanding of local social nuances. Now, North Korean hackers are leveraging artificial intelligence to enhance their effectiveness.
Erin Plante, Vice President of Research at Chainalysis, views this as a significant new threat. "North Korean hacking groups are creating trustworthy profiles on professional sites like LinkedIn. Generative neural networks help them communicate, send messages, create images, and new identities: everything needed to build close relationships with their victims," she explained. "They use detailed profiles on LinkedIn and other social networks to develop relationships over weeks and months." Plante described an instance where North Korean hackers deceived a senior engineer at a cryptocurrency exchange by posing as representatives of a Singaporean company. They asked the victim to perform a "technical test" by downloading software that turned out to be phishing malware.
Moreover, AI services like ChatGPT are assisting North Korean criminals in developing more complex and sophisticated forms of malicious software. The era of poorly worded emails with a "click this link" prompt is evolving into a more cunning approach to cybercrime.

– Dennis Liu, also known as Virtual Bacon, shared his bitcoin investment strategy, emphasizing the importance of identifying the optimal moment to sell an asset, which is as crucial as deciding to buy it. He outlined three elements designed to signal that the market might have reached its peak.
1. The first indicator to consider is the achievement of certain price milestones: $200,000 for bitcoin and $15,000 for Ethereum. Liu's assumption is based on historical cycles and diminishing returns. This is a clear, quantifiable indicator that eliminates guesswork when deciding to exit a position.
2. Liu's second benchmark is time-based. Regardless of the price dynamics of the assets, he plans to exit his positions by the end of 2025. This decision relies on the importance of historical patterns and is based on the analysis of halving cycles and the duration of bull markets.
3. The final element of Liu's methodology involves meticulous monitoring of price patterns, specifically the behaviour of BTC relative to its 200-day and 21-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). Falling below these support levels would signal the need to sell bitcoin.

– Analyst Gareth Soloway suggested that bitcoin could potentially retest the $30,000 mark, especially if the stock market undergoes a correction in the range of 20% to 30%. He referred to a new possible support level for bitcoin as the "line in the sand." "My main line in the sand is the level from $30,000 to $32,000. If we drop there, I will start buying quite large volumes of BTC," he stated.

– Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes the main question for traders now is how the price of BTC will change in the coming months. The analyst expects a pullback in bitcoin could occur when it reaches the $53,000-$58,000 level. Therefore, investors should wait for a correction of 20-40% before entering the market. However, "if you buy bitcoin with the intention of holding it for two to three years, and if you believe that over this period bitcoin will grow to $150,000, then nothing should stop you from purchasing it at these [current] prices," Van De Poppe wrote.

– Recently, Erik Voorhees, CEO and founder of the cryptocurrency exchange Shapeshift, discreetly urged Apple to purchase several billion dollars' worth of BTC and to adopt the first cryptocurrency as a payment method in Apple Pay. He believes this move could instantly generate substantial profits for the company and contribute to the further spread of cryptocurrency. A similar idea was proposed in 2021 by Michael Saylor, co-founder of MicroStrategy. "If Apple added support for bitcoin to the iPhone and converted its treasury to the bitcoin standard, it would bring its shareholders at least one trillion dollars," he wrote at the time.
Chen Fang, Chief Operating Officer of BitGo, also spoke about Apple, suggesting that integrating BTC into Apple Pay and the new Apple Vision Pro headset would allow the company to dominate payments in the metaverse.
It's worth noting that Apple, the world's second-largest company by market capitalization, has had a complicated relationship with the emerging cryptocurrency sector. In the Apple App Store, applications related to bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are regularly removed. Over time, apps like MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet, Trust Wallet, and Damus have faced sanctions. Meanwhile, Apple co-founder Steve Wozniak has called bitcoin a sensible investment choice, revealing that he once made significant investments in this digital asset.

– Over the past week, Ethereum has significantly outpaced bitcoin in terms of growth rate. According to Standard Chartered bank, the coin's price could rise to $4,000 in anticipation of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving spot Ethereum ETFs. Bernstein analysts believe the likelihood of this happening is substantial: nearly 50% for a launch by May and almost 100% within the next 12 months. "Ethereum, with its dynamic yield rates, environmentally friendly design, and utility in creating new financial markets, has strong potential for widespread institutional adoption. It is likely the only digital asset alternative to bitcoin that could receive clear ETF approval from the SEC," Bernstein suggests. Analysts believe that officials may be influenced by the fact that participants in the traditional stock market are not only looking to launch spot ETFs on Ethereum similar to bitcoin ETFs but also intend to "build more transparent and open tokenized financial markets on the ETH network, where the utility goes beyond mere asset accumulation."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 25, 2024, 08:47:57 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for February 26 - March 01, 2024


EUR/USD: ECB Rhetoric Against the Dollar

Data on consumer inflation (CPI) in the US, published on February 13, exceeded expectations. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also indicated a rise in industrial inflation in the country. However, despite this, the American currency failed to gain additional support. The Dollar Index (DXY) began to decline from February 14, while EUR/USD steadily climbed higher.

The minutes of the latest FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve were published on Wednesday, February 21, serving as a reminder that the American regulator might not be in a hurry to lower interest rates. However, market expectations still dominate that the Fed will begin to ease its monetary policy significantly earlier than the ECB. This factor exerts serious pressure on the dollar, especially as such expectations are constantly fuelled by statements from high-ranking European officials. ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel stated that monetary policy must remain restrictive until the regulator is confident that inflation has sustainably returned to the medium-term target level of 2.0%.

A similar stance was taken by Schnabel's ECB colleague, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel. On Friday, February 23, he stated that "it is still too early to cut rates, even if this step might seem tempting to some." According to Nagel, the price forecast is not clear enough yet, and key data on price pressure will only be received in Q2, which is when it might be appropriate to consider lowering interest rates.

The Bundesbank head believes that the period of rapid inflation decrease has ended, some setbacks are possible ahead, and in the coming months, inflation will remain noticeably above the target level of 2.0%. (According to the latest forecasts by MUFG Bank, CPI in the Eurozone is expected to be 2.7% in 2024).

EUR/USD surged to 1.0887 on Thursday February 22 and then fell to 1.0802, due to uneven business activity (PMI) data across various Eurozone countries. Preliminary estimates showed that France's manufacturing PMI jumped from 43.1 to 46.8 points, exceeding the expected 43.5. The services index rose from 45.4 to 48.0, surpassing the anticipated 45.7. Significantly exceeding expectations, these indicators ignited investor risk appetite, encompassing not only stock indices but also purchases of the common European currency against the dollar.

However, the joy of euro bulls was short-lived, halted by the publication of Germany's PMI. The manufacturing index of this powerhouse of the European economy plummeted from 45.5 to 42.3, against a forecast of 46.1. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI dropped from 46.6 to 46.1, contrary to the expected rise to 47.0. It's important to note that all these indicators are below the key horizon of 50.0, indicating an economic downturn. Only the services sector reached this significant threshold of 50.0. Overall, the Eurozone's composite PMI increased to 48.9, the highest since June 2023, but it still remains in the negative zone for the seventh consecutive month.

Regarding the situation on the other side of the Atlantic, these indicators suggest economic growth in the US. Preliminary data showed that the business activity indicator in the services sector was 51.3 points, and in the manufacturing sector, 51.5. On Thursday, the traditional number of initial unemployment claims in the United States was also published, decreasing from 213K to 201K over the week (forecast was 217K), indicating a strengthening labour market.

EUR/USD closed the last week at 1.0820. According to some analysts, the recent macroeconomic data suggest that the dollar's weakening is a temporary phenomenon, and the DXY is expected to return to an upward trajectory. Only extraordinary events in the economy or politics could prevent this. As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, February 23, 50% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of the pair. 30% sided with the euro, while 20% took a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, only 10% are coloured red, 15% are in neutral grey, and 75% are green, with 20% of them in the overbought zone. The balance among trend indicators is different: 35% are red, and 65% are green. The nearest support for the pair is located in the 1.0800 zone, followed by 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, 1.0450. Bulls will encounter resistance in the areas of 1.0840-1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1110-1.1140, 1.1230-1.1275.

Key events to highlight for the upcoming week include Tuesday, February 27, when updates on US durable goods orders will be released. Preliminary data on the American GDP volume for Q4 2023 will follow the next day. Data on retail sales and consumer prices (CPI) in Germany will be published on Thursday, along with the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index and labour market statistics in the US. Significant volatility can be expected towards the end of the working week. On the first day of spring, the annual inflation rate (CPI) in the Eurozone and the final figures of the Business Activity Index (PMI) in the United States will be disclosed.

GBP/USD: UK Economy Gains Momentum

Alongside business activity data from the US and the Eurozone, preliminary indicators for the United Kingdom were also released on Thursday, February 22. The UK's manufacturing sector Business Activity Index (PMI), though slightly below the forecast of 47.5, showed a modest increase from 47.0 to 47.1 points. The services sector indicator remained steady at 54.3. However, the composite PMI reached 53.3, surpassing both the forecast and the previous value of 52.9. Values in the green zone above 50.0 clearly indicate an improvement in the outlook for the British economy. It seems that the technical recession experienced in the second half of 2023 has ended or is at least close to ending.

In a previous review, we cited economists from Scotiabank's forecast that, starting from a strong long-term support zone of 1.2500, GBP/USD would begin to rise towards 1.2700. This prediction came true on 22 February, following the publication of the British PMI, as the pair reached a peak of 1.2709, returning to the very centre of the medium-term sideways channel of 1.2600-1.2800.

Favourable data on the UK economy and the recovery of global risk appetites should have a positive impact on the pound. In such a situation, strategists from the Japanese MUFG Bank write, "if the Fed and the ECB delay the timing of the first rate cut, then the Bank of England (BoE) will delay it as well." Recall that at the conclusion of the meeting that ended on February 1, the BoE announced it would keep the bank rate at its current level of 5.25%. The accompanying statement mentioned that "before lowering rates, more evidence is needed that the Consumer Price Index will fall to 2.0% and remain at this level." Market participants expect the first rate cut to occur in August. This expectation is already priced in and prevents GBP/USD from falling.

MUFG believes, "although the pound's correlation with global stocks has begun to weaken, it remains stronger than the dollar's correlation with risk. And if risk appetite persists, this could cause some strengthening of the pound." However, the bank's experts warn that some concerns about the growth of the British economy still remain, and this could restrain the growth of GBP.

GBP/USD closed the past week at 1.2670. As for the median forecast of analysts for the coming days, 65% voted for the pair's decline, while 35% supported its growth. Among the oscillators on D1, only 10% point south, 15% look east, and the remaining 75% point north, of which 10% signal overbought conditions. Trend indicators show a significant bias towards the British currency: 90% point north, with the remaining 10% pointing south. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2635-1.2650, 1.2570, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2370, 1.2330. In case of an increase, resistance will be met at levels 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2755-1.2775, 1.2825, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140-1.3150.

No significant macroeconomic data releases related to the UK economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 25, 2024, 08:52:12 AM
USD/JPY: To the Moon and Beyond, Mars is Next

The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds, currently around 4.30%, continues to support the dollar against the yen, with its low yield and negative interest rates. USD/JPY once again rose above 150.00 last week and attempted to storm the 151.00 mark. Again, it was unsuccessful: the local maximum was recorded at 150.76, with the week closing at 150.52.

The caution of bulls on USD/JPY is largely due to the fact that the 150.00-152.00 zone was where the Ministry of Finance of Japan initiated currency interventions in October 2022 and November 2023. However, every trader knows that past results do not guarantee future performance. Thus, it is not certain that the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will follow the same path this time.

It should be noted that Japan's GDP has fallen for the last two quarters. A weak national currency supports exporters by making Japanese products more attractive and competitive in foreign markets, thereby stimulating the country's economy. This explains the reluctance of Japanese financial regulators to tighten monetary policy. According to Kazuo Ueda, the head of the BoJ, the question of maintaining or changing monetary policy, including the negative interest rate, will only be considered "when there is a chance of sustainable and stable achievement of the target price level."

As mentioned, the likelihood of a reversal in USD/JPY southward from the 151.00-152.00 zone is high, yet it remains less than 100%. Currently, the pair's rate is approximately 14% higher than a year ago. As some experts note, the financial authorities in Japan start to get nervous when this figure approaches 20% year-on-year. For now, they can feel relatively relaxed and comfortable, especially since the country's economy has already adapted to such an exchange rate over the past two years. Therefore, it's not entirely out of the question that instead of falling to 140.00 as expected by Danske Bank, we might see the pair reach heights of 160.00, as was the case 34 years ago in April 1990.

Regarding the near future, specialists at Singapore's United Overseas Bank believe that within one to three weeks, USD/JPY is likely to trade within the range of 148.70 to 150.90. However, UOB does not rule out that a breakthrough above 150.90 could trigger a rise to 152.00. At the time of writing this review, 40% of experts sided with the dollar, while the majority (60%) voted for the strengthening of the yen. Trend indicators and oscillators on D1 all point north, yet 10% of the latter are in the overbought zone. The nearest support level is located in the zone of 149.70-150.00, followed by 148.25-148.40, 147.65, 146.65-146.85, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are at 150.90, 151.70-152.05, and 153.15.

No significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the upcoming week.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Five Reasons for the End of the Crypto Winter

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Throughout the past week, there was a lull in the battle between bitcoin bears and bulls. Choosing $51,500 as the Pivot Point, BTC/USD moved sideways in a narrow corridor of $50,500-$52,500. Bulls' attempt to break through resistance on 20 February ended in failure, and the pair returned to its defined boundaries. However, as experience shows, any calm is not everlasting. It is inevitably replaced by thunder rolls, stormy winds, and squally showers, especially true for the highly volatile crypto market. So, what can we expect if the weather changes?

According to Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, there's an 85% likelihood that bitcoin will reach a new all-time high within the next six months, potentially surpassing $70,000. The analyst identified five factors that could catalyse this growth.

1. Halving in April: This will be the fourth halving event, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, leading to decreased selling pressure. Outumuro does not rule out the possibility of bitcoin reaching an all-time high (ATH) just a month after the halving.

2. Continued inflow into spot Bitcoin ETFs: While the duration of strong inflows remains uncertain, a stable inflow over time is expected to bolster the price of bitcoin by increasing demand.

3. Federal Reserve's interest rate policy: The Fed's stringent stance on interest rates in 2022 laid the groundwork for a bearish trend in risk assets, including the crypto market. With inflation dropping from 10% to 3% by 2024, many anticipate a policy shift by the Fed and the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle. "This expectation is likely the main driving force behind the recent rallies in both bitcoin and stocks... This time, bitcoin's price movement has been more closely linked with traditional assets, leading to its correlation with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching two-month highs," explains Outumuro.

4. US Presidential Elections: Despite the current President Joe Biden's general opposition to digital assets, election campaigns positively impact the crypto market. "The prediction market Polymarket currently gives Biden just a 33% chance of re-election, making Donald Trump, who is significantly more crypto-friendly, the most likely victor," reports IntoTheBlock. The Fed may begin to ease its monetary policy more aggressively to increase the current US President's re-election chances, benefiting stock and cryptocurrency markets.

5. Hedge Funds: Outumuro points out that when bitcoin recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, traditional financial giants first recognized cryptocurrency's potential. With the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs, hedge funds have the opportunity to accumulate a new asset class, leading to increased adoption and acceptance of digital assets.

However, IntoTheBlock acknowledges that these scenarios could change due to several factors. For instance, if the Fed does not ease policy, bitcoin could face a 10% correction. Geopolitical conflicts also negatively impact digital gold's price. Unexpected selling pressure in the event of major player bankruptcies is not ruled out.

As mentioned (in point 3), the correlation between bitcoin and the S&P 500 is increasing, suggesting BTC could rise alongside the US stock market. Following the S&P 500 surpassing 5,000 points, investment bank Goldman Sachs revised its end-of-year forecast for the index to 5,200, potentially providing additional support for bitcoin.

Every trader knows that determining the optimal moment to sell an asset is just as important as the decision to buy it. Dennis Liu, also known as Virtual Bacon, shared his bitcoin investment methodology a few days ago, identifying three elements designed to signal that the market may have reached its peak.

1. Specific Price Milestones: The first sign to look out for is reaching certain price milestones: $200,000 for bitcoin and $15,000 for Ethereum. Liu's assumption is based on historical cycles and diminishing returns. This is a clear, quantifiable indicator that eliminates guesswork when deciding to exit a position.

2. Time-based Exit Strategy: The second benchmark Liu mentions is time-bound. Regardless of the asset's price dynamics, the trader plans to exit positions by the end of 2025. This decision is grounded in the importance of historical patterns and is based on the analysis of halving cycles and the duration of bull markets.

3. Monitoring Price Patterns: The last element of Liu's methodology involves closely monitoring price patterns, specifically BTC's behaviour relative to its 200-day and 21-week exponential moving averages (EMAs). A fall below these support levels would signal the need to sell bitcoin.

It's clear that $200,000 for bitcoin is a forecast, and moreover, a forecast for the relatively distant future. As for the near future, as we've noted, many on-chain indicators from Glassnode have already entered what's termed the "risk zone." They record a relatively low level of realized profit considering the active price growth in the last four weeks. According to Glassnode specialists' observations, a high risk indicator is usually seen in the early stages of a bull market. This is because, upon reaching a "significant level" of profitability, hodlers may begin to take profits, potentially leading to a sharp correction downwards.

Analyst Gareth Soloway suggested that bitcoin could potentially fall to the $30,000 mark, especially if the stock market undergoes a correction. The expert referred to the new potential support for bitcoin as the "line in the sand." "My main line in the sand is between $30,000 to $32,000. [...]. If we drop there, I'll start buying quite large volumes of BTC," he wrote.

Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, also advises investors to wait for a 20-40% correction before entering the market. The specialist believes that a bitcoin pullback could occur upon reaching the $53,000-$58,000 zone. "However," adds Van De Poppe, "if you're buying bitcoin with the intention to hold it for two to three years, and if you believe it will rise to $150,000 during that period, then nothing should stop you from purchasing it at these [current] prices."

While the leading cryptocurrency has been in a flat trend over the last week (a 4% fluctuation for BTC is definitely considered flat), its main competitor, Ethereum, has been significantly more active. Recovering from the previous year, this altcoin has shown excellent dynamics since the end of January, growing by more than 35% and reaching a significant level of $3,000. This is related to both a revival in the DeFi sector and hopes for the launch of ETH-based ETFs in May this year. Although previous reviews have cited several leading experts' doubts about this, there are also many optimists. For instance, analysts at Bernstein believe that the likelihood of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving an ETH-ETF in May is almost 50%, and there is almost a 100% certainty of approval within the next 12 months.

"Ethereum, with its dynamic yield rates, environmentally friendly design, and utility in creating new financial markets, has good prospects for mass institutional adoption. It's probably the only digital asset alternative to bitcoin that could receive unequivocal ETF approval from the SEC," Bernstein analysts argue. They believe that officials might be influenced by the fact that participants in the traditional stock market not only want to launch spot ETH ETFs similar to bitcoin ETFs but also express the intention "to build more transparent and open tokenized financial markets on the ETH network, where utility goes beyond simple asset accumulation." According to Standard Chartered bank estimates, with the anticipation of ETH-ETF approval, the coin's price could rise to $4,000 in the near future.

As of the evening of February 23 when this review is written, BTC/USD is trading in the $51,000 zone, and ETH/USD is at $2,935. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has remained unchanged over the week, standing at $1.95 trillion. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen to the lower boundary of the Extreme Greed zone at 76 points (up from 72 a week ago).
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 27, 2024, 01:21:33 PM
NordFX Secures Its First 2024 Award as Best Crypto Broker in South East Asia


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Finance Derivative magazine announced the 2024 Awards, among which brokerage firm NordFX emerged victorious in the "Best Crypto Broker South East Asia 2024" category.

Finance Derivative is a publication and magazine specializing in financial news, analysis, and reports on trends in finance, banking, technology, and investments. The magazine covers a wide range of topics, from macroeconomic issues to specific investment instruments and strategies, making it a valuable resource for professionals in the financial sector.

The Finance Derivative Awards are an annual accolade that recognizes the outstanding achievements of companies leading in banking, insurance, fintech, brokerage services, and other sectors of the finance industry. These awards not only acknowledge the laureates' achievements but also set standards and serve as an important indicator for all industry participants.

"We would like to congratulate you and extend our special recognition for your pursuit of excellence," states the letter from the Finance Derivative editorial team. "Highlighting your outstanding results, we are pleased to announce that NordFX has been named the 2024 winner in the 'Best Crypto Broker South East Asia' category. Commenting on this award, experts note NordFX's innovative approaches, wide range of cryptocurrency pairs, high level of order execution, and the opportunity for margin trading, which allows traders to significantly increase potential profits.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on February 28, 2024, 01:10:02 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– Donald Trump, the former (and possibly future) president of the United States and leader of the Republican Party, stated in a conversation with Fox News that the current development of bitcoin will require regulatory intervention from the authorities. He mentioned that bitcoin has "come into its own life," adding, "Many people are accepting it. I see an increasing number of people wanting to pay with bitcoin, which is interesting. Probably, some regulation will be needed. But I think I could coexist with that." However, Trump has not yet leaned towards adopting bitcoin as a means of payment in the US. "I have always liked having one currency... I like the dollar," he said.

– In an interview with CNBC, Tom Lee, co-founder of analytics firm Fundstrat, predicted that the price of bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2024. He cited several factors bolstering his forecast: ETFs boosting demand, the halving event reducing supply, and the expected relaxation of monetary policy, all of which favour risk assets like bitcoin. Lee also suggested that the crypto market is unlikely to see a correction anytime soon. Looking ahead, he reaffirmed his January prediction that bitcoin could hit $500,000 within the next five years, lauding it as a reliable form of money that has proven its utility. "It's an excellent store of value and a good risky asset, which is also incredibly secure," Lee added, underscoring the cryptocurrency's appeal.

– Contrary to the views of Tom Lee and Donald Trump, experts at the European Central Bank (ECB) maintain that the fair value of bitcoin is still zero, even amidst the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US and the current price rally. In November 2022, ECB experts published an article titled "Bitcoin's Last Stand," in which they described the stabilization of the cryptocurrency's price as an artificially induced final gasp before its journey to ultimate obsolescence. Since then, the price of what's often referred to as digital gold has risen from ~$17,000 to ~$59,000. However, this increase has not swayed the bank's specialists to change their opinion. In a new essay titled "ETF Approval – The Emperor's New Clothes," they stated that their core arguments from over a year ago have proven to be correct. Firstly, bitcoin has failed as a global decentralized digital currency for payments. Secondly, the cryptocurrency has not become a viable investment asset, one that would inevitably appreciate in value.
"Bitcoin remains unsuitable as an investment," the essay reads. "It does not generate any cash flows (like real estate) or dividends (like stocks), cannot be productively used (like commodities), offers no social benefits (like gold jewellery), or subjective value based on exceptional skills (like works of art)," conclude the ECB experts.

– Renowned writer and investor Robert Kiyosaki has announced his intention to accumulate bitcoin and silver amid the escalating banking crisis. "Please be careful," he warned. "The banking crisis is intensifying. Central banks will push for CBDCs, central bank digital currencies, to monitor us." Kiyosaki revealed his strategy, stating, "I plan to acquire more bitcoin and silver coins. I will use them as a means of payment instead of counterfeit US dollars.".

– Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, a senior analyst at JPMorgan, highlights that the activity of retail investors has been one of the main drivers behind the growth of bitcoin, ethereum, and other popular cryptocurrencies. Despite the recent introduction of spot BTC-ETFs, purchases by retail crypto investors, who often invest relatively small amounts, significantly exceed the cash flows from large corporations. (According to a recent JPMorgan survey, institutional investors have become less confident in the blockchain's potential: their numbers dropped to 7% in 2024).
"An increase in retail investor activity in February reflects the emergence of three key growth catalysts for the crypto market in the coming months: the reduction of BTC mining rewards, a major Ethereum network upgrade – Dencun, and the potential approval of spot ETH-ETFs in May," JPMorgan believes. The bank's analysts think that the first two catalysts are largely priced in, so they are unlikely to have a significant impact on the crypto market's dynamics. As for the approval of Ethereum-based exchange-traded funds, the likelihood is only 50%. Therefore, despite the upcoming positive events, caution is advised.

– ChatGPT-4 was asked to predict the price of bitcoin following the halving in April 2024. The artificial intelligence noted that "looking at historical trends, it's evident that the price of bitcoin usually experiences significant growth within a year after such an event." Based on this observation, the AI suggested that a similar increase could occur this time as well. Consequently, by August 2025, the price of BTC could reach $179,000.
Alongside this prediction, ChatGPT-4 acknowledged the difficulty of making accurate forecasts due to the influence of various economic, regulatory, and technological factors. Therefore, "it's important to bear in mind that these figures are speculative and depend on a wide range of unpredictable factors."

– After breaking through the $56,000 level, legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, revised his forecast for the price of the leading cryptocurrency in 2025 from $120,000 to $200,000. The expert raised the bar because bitcoin had breached the upper boundary of resistance in a 15-month channel (on the BTC/USD chart, these are trend lines that connect the lows of November 2022 and September 2023, as well as the highs of April 2023 and January 2024). According to Brandt, the current bullish cycle will conclude in August-September 2025, by which time the quotes of digital gold are expected to reach the stated target.
Regarding the point of exiting the position, Brandt, half-jokingly or seriously, stated that he would use laser eyes on the X network as a "contrary indicator," just as in 2021. "So, folks," he urged, "if you want bitcoin to maintain a strong trend, please do not post laser eyes on your social media profile pictures. Too many laser eyes signal a time to sell."

– On January 25, malefactors gained control over the MicroStrategy company account on the X network and posted malicious links to a fake "token giveaway" for MSTR tokens. Following the link in the post, users were prompted to connect their wallet and request a bogus AirDrop, enabling hackers to take control over the victims' addresses. It's worth noting that some market participants pointed out the clear deception, as MicroStrategy, a company exclusively focused on bitcoin, would unlikely launch a token on Ethereum. Nevertheless, there were still those who fell for the scammers' tricks. According to on-chain detective ZachXBT, the estimated losses of the victims amounted to about $440,000.

– Investor, Heisenberg Capital founder, and Keiser Report host Max Keiser has likened investing in bitcoin to buying shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in March 1985, when they were priced at $1,500 each. Since then, the value of these shares has increased to $629,000. According to Keiser, bitcoin could potentially see an increase of more than 41,000%. If the leading cryptocurrency were to experience such explosive growth, each coin would be valued at over $21,000,000. In this scenario, the market capitalization of the digital asset would surpass $450 trillion, greatly exceeding the valuations of the world's largest corporations. For comparison, the current market capitalization of Apple Inc. is $2.82 trillion, positioning it as one of the most valuable companies globally. Following are Microsoft with a valuation of $2.0 trillion, Alphabet with $1.77 trillion, and Amazon with $1.6 trillion.
Additionally, Max Keiser has issued a warning to traders and investors about a potential significant downturn in the US stock market akin to the crash of 1987. He stated, "A crash like in 1987 is coming. bitcoin is the perfect safe haven, with its price possibly soaring above $500,000."
Analysts at investment firm ARK Invest have also ventured a bold prediction that bitcoin's price could escalate to $2.3 million per coin. However, realizing such a scenario would necessitate a significant shift in the redistribution of global assets towards the premier cryptocurrency.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 01, 2024, 02:45:45 PM
February 2024 Results: NordFX Top 3 Traders and New Unique Bonus

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NordFX, a brokerage firm, has summarized the trading performance of its clients for February 2024. The effectiveness of social trading services, PAMM and CopyTrading, as well as the profits earned by the company's IB partners, were also evaluated.

- The best result in February was achieved by a trader from Southeast Asia, account number 1745XXX, who made a profit of 70,757 USD through transactions with gold (XAU/USD).
- The gold pair XAU/USD, along with the British pound (GBP/USD), assisted a client from Western Asia, account number 1704XXX, in securing the second spot on the podium with earnings of 45,303 USD.
- Third place went to another trader from Southeast Asia, the owner of account number 1748XXX. Utilising the same instrument, XAU/USD, they managed to gain a profit of 25,570 USD.

The following situation has emerged in the passive investment services of NordFX:

The PAMM service at NordFX continues to attract investors' attention to the "Trade and earn" account, which opened in March 2022. After four months of dormancy, it reactivated in November of the same year. For a long time, its maximum drawdown did not exceed 17%. However, at the end of 2023, the account manager made a significant mistake, and within a few days, the drawdown neared a risky 60%. Fortunately, the manager was able to rectify the situation, resulting in a sharp increase in profitability, exceeding 477% over 16 months of operation.

In our last review, we also highlighted a startup named Kikos2. A month later, it remains showcased in the PAMM service, boasting a profit of 394% within 101 days of its existence, despite a significant maximum drawdown of around 60%. Therefore, in this and all other cases, investors must exercise maximum caution and be prepared for both profits and losses.

Those familiar with NordFX's passive investment services will likely know the accounts named KennyFXPRO, the oldest of which has been operating for over three years. This time, we want to highlight two new accounts created by this manager. The first, KennyFXPRO - The CAD Bank, has shown a profit of 7% in 87 days with a very low maximum drawdown of less than 5%. The profitability of the second, KennyFXPRO - Road to 250, was nearly 15% over 89 days, with a drawdown of less than 7%.

In CopyTrading, we continue to monitor the yahmat-forex signal, which has shown a return of 372% over 251 days, with a maximum drawdown of 37%. Among the startups, it's worth noting the FxBro Tradings account, which has demonstrated a return of 26% in just 23 days, with a maximum drawdown of less than 8%.

Among the IB partners of the brokerage firm NordFX, the top 3 are as follows:
- The largest commission reward in February was credited to a partner from Southeast Asia, account number 1743XXX, amounting to 10,975 USD.
- Following them is their colleague from Western Asia, account number 1645XXX, who earned 6,137 USD for the month.
- Finally, completing the top three leaders is another partner from Southeast Asia, account number 1516XXX, who received a commission of 5,535 USD.

***

Attention! Starting from February 20, clients of the brokerage firm NordFX have been given the opportunity to participate in a new accumulation program called the Margin Call Bonus. The program's uniqueness lies in the fact that traders earn bonus funds for themselves: the more actively they deposit into their account and the more actively they trade, the larger the amount they can receive when a Margin Call occurs.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 03, 2024, 07:55:40 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 04 - 08, 2024


EUR/USD: Weak Bulls vs. Weak Bears

Throughout the past week, EUR/USD has been trading within a narrow channel. News favouring the euro pushed it towards the resistance level at 1.0865, while positive developments for the dollar brought it back to the support level at 1.0800. However, neither the bulls nor the bears had enough strength to break through these defence lines.

The preliminary GDP data for the US in Q4 2023, released on Wednesday, 28 February, put pressure on the American currency as it fell short of both forecasts and the previous figure – 3.2% against 3.3% and 4.9%, respectively. However, the dollar managed to recover its losses the following day. This rebound was related to the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index in the US, a measure used by the Federal Reserve to calculate inflation levels and a crucial factor in determining the regulator's future actions.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis report, released on 29 February, revealed that the Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, stood at 2.8% year-on-year in January. This was slightly below the previous value of 2.9% but matched analysts' forecasts precisely. On a monthly basis, the PCE increased from 0.1% to 0.4%. Market participants were immediately reminded of previously published data on consumer (CPI) and producer (PPI) inflation, which were higher than expected. This convinced them that, despite the GDP decline, the regulator might continue to postpone the start of easing its monetary policy. (Currently, the market expects the Fed to begin a rate-cutting cycle in June).

Hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials, following the PCE publication, supported the American currency. Mary Daly, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated that lowering rates too quickly could lead to inflation stagnation. Meanwhile, her colleague, Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, suggested that it might be appropriate to start cutting rates in the summer.

The sellers of the single European currency were also influenced by relatively weak statistics from the Eurozone, where the volume of consumer lending in January showed the slowest growth since 2016. This indicator increased by only 0.3%. Experts cite the pressure on consumers from the high interest rates of the European Central Bank (ECB) as the main reason for this trend, which could become an additional argument for lowering them.

Regarding consumer inflation, the figures in Europe were quite mixed. Data published at the beginning of the last week from Spain and France came out stronger than forecasts. Meanwhile, in Germany, the CPI fell from 3.1% to 2.7% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations. The dynamics of EUR/USD could have been influenced by the Eurozone's overall figures, which were published on the first day of spring. The preliminary report from Eurostat showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.6% year-on-year in February, lower than the 2.8% growth in January but above the 2.5% forecast. Core inflation for the month decreased to 3.1% year-on-year compared to the previous figure of 3.3%, but it exceeded expectations of 2.9%. While inflation fell on a yearly basis, it sharply rose on a monthly basis, from a negative -0.4% to +0.6%.

At the very end of the working week, the final values of the Manufacturing Sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the United States were released, somewhat disappointing market participants. The PMI for February fell from 49.1 to 47.8 points, despite being expected to rise to 49.5. As a result, after rebounding from the support level at 1.0800, EUR/USD once again moved upward, closing the week at 1.0839. As for the near-term forecast, as of the evening of Friday, 1 March, 45% of experts voted for the dollar's strengthening and the pair's decline. 30% sided with the euro, while 25% held a neutral position. Among the oscillators on D1, only 20% are coloured red, another 20% are in neutral grey, and the remaining 60% are green, with 10% of them in the overbought zone. Among the trend indicators: 20% are red, and 80% green. The nearest support levels for the pair are found at 1.0800, followed by 1.0725-1.0740, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are located at 1.0845-1.0865, 1.0925, 1.0985-1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1110-1.1140, and 1.1230-1.1275.

As for the upcoming week, the value of the Services Sector Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in the US will be announced on Tuesday, 5 March. Wednesday and Thursday are set to bring a batch of data from the US labour market, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell scheduled to speak in Congress on the same days. The main event of the week will be the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday, 7 March. Market participants expect the pan-European regulator to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%, so the subsequent press conference by the central bank's leadership and their comments on future monetary policy will be of particular interest. The end of the week could also prove to be quite volatile. On Friday, 8 March, we will first receive data on the Eurozone's GDP for Q4 2023, followed by a batch of very important statistics from the American labour market, including the unemployment rate, average wage level, and the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (Non-Farm Payrolls, NFP).

GBP/USD: Will the Budget Bolster the Pound?

With the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting just a few days away, the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) meetings are not due for a while: on 20 and 21 March, respectively. The nearest key event for the sterling pound in the coming week will be the announcement of the budget by the UK Government on Wednesday, 6 March. This budget is pre-election, and therefore, according to strategists at the Dutch Rabobank, it could have a significant impact on the British currency, which in 2024 is the second most successful G10 currency after the US dollar.

It's worth noting that, according to current rules, general elections in the UK must take place no later than 28 January 2025. According to The Guardian, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is leaning towards holding them in the second half of 2024. However, The Daily Telegraph reports that elections for the lower house of the British Parliament could occur even earlier: as soon as this spring.

Economists at Rabobank anticipate that the pre-election budget will include fiscal incentives, which could serve as a new stimulus for strengthening the pound. This entails a moderate easing of fiscal policy, potentially involving changes more in national insurance than in income tax. Any reforms that could boost incentives to work or changes in regulation that might enhance investment incentives will be of particular interest to the market. An increase in the labour force would contribute to economic growth and, therefore, could be seen as a favourable factor for the British pound.

Both Rabobank and the Japanese MUFG Bank believe that the extent of potential fiscal incentives is unlikely to be sufficient to significantly improve the metrics of the British economy. However, even a small number of such stimuli is likely to reinforce the general view that the Bank of England will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates and will not do so either in May or June.

Let's recall that at its meeting on 1 February, the Bank of England (BoE) maintained the rate at the previous level of 5.25%. The accompanying statement mentioned that "more evidence is needed that the Consumer Price Index will fall to 2.0% and remain at this level before cutting rates." Market participants are anticipating the first rate cut to occur in August. This expectation has already been factored into prices and prevents GBP/USD from declining.

However, if inflation remained unchanged at 4.0% in February and the country's GDP contracted by -0.3%, it seems the Government intends to bolster the economy with new fiscal incentives. Nonetheless, if these measures do not lead to GDP growth, discussions may once again turn towards an imminent rate cut, which would exert pressure on the pound.

GBP/USD concluded the past week at the level of 1.2652, failing to break out of the medium-term sideways channel of 1.2600-1.2800. Regarding the analysts' forecast for the near future, their opinions were evenly divided: a third voted for the pair's decline, a third for its rise, and a third remained neutral. Among the oscillators on D1, 25% point south, 40% look north, and the remaining 35% are pointing east. Trend indicators, as a week ago, show a significant bias towards the British currency – 80% indicating north and 20% south. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575-1.2600, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, and 1.2330. In the event of a rise, it will meet resistance at levels 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2785-1.2815, 1.2880, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

Besides the announcement of the country's budget on 6 March, no significant macroeconomic statistics regarding the economy of the United Kingdom are scheduled for release in the coming week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 03, 2024, 07:58:05 AM
USD/JPY: Petal Predictions

There's an ancient method of fortune-telling with a flower. A girl takes a flower in her hand and plucks the petals one by one: the first one means someone will love her, the second means they won't, the third means love, the fourth means no love, and so on until the petals run out. The fate declared by the last petal is believed to come true. This method of fortune-telling can quite aptly be applied to the Bank of Japan (BoJ): will change its monetary policy, won't change, will change, won't change...

Low interest rates make the yen cheap, which in turn stimulates exports, making Japanese goods competitive in foreign markets. However, on the flip side, it creates problems for the national industry as it makes imports more expensive, primarily the import of raw materials and energy resources.

In January, the trade balance was sharply negative. If in December the balance was in favour of imports (+69 billion yen), in January, it collapsed to minus 1758 billion yen. Looking at the balance for the entire year of 2023, imports often lost to exports. Industrial production decreased by -7.5% in January, which is worse than the previous growth of +1.4% and the forecast of -6.7%. Thus, Japanese officials, like with the flower method, wonder what is better and more important – supporting the economy or fighting inflation. Meanwhile, the BoJ does not take any concrete steps but limits itself to vague statements, often very contradictory.

On 29 February, following hawkish comments from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board member Hajime Takata, the yield on Japanese government bonds rose from 0.68% to 0.71%, and USD/JPY plummeted from 150.14 to 149.20. This high-ranking official stated that the BoJ should consider the possibility of adopting flexible countermeasures, including moving away from monetary easing policies, which investors interpreted as a signal for a rate hike.

However, just a day later, Kazuo Ueda, the head of the Bank of Japan, stated that the country's economy would continue to recover gradually, and the GDP decline in the fourth quarter was somewhat of a correction after the strong growth spurred by the economic restart post-COVID pandemic. According to Ueda, inflation is decreasing at a faster pace than expected, without any rate hikes. Following this, USD/JPY reversed direction, heading north and rising to 150.70.

The main advantage of the yen right now is that while the major G10 central banks are considering easing their policies, the Bank of Japan can only contemplate tightening its policy. It is clear that it will not lower its already negative interest rate of -0.10%. Commerzbank still does not rule out the possibility that the BoJ may decide to take initial steps towards normalizing its monetary policy soon. "However, we expect this to be limited in nature," write the bank's economists. "As in 2000 and 2006, the first interest rate hikes are likely to slow inflation. After that, there will be no further normalization." As a result, Commerzbank forecasts a gradual decline in USD/JPY to 142.00 by December this year, followed by a steady rise to 146.00 by the end of 2025.

Last week concluded at 150.10 for the pair, following the release of weak PMI data in the US manufacturing sector. Looking ahead, the analysts' median forecast positions 60% in favor of the bears for the USD/JPY pair, 20% for the bulls, and 20% remain indecisive. On the D1 oscillators, 65% are green (with 10% in the overbought zone), and the remaining 35% display a neutral-grey color. Similarly, 65% of the trend indicators are green, with 35% red. The nearest support level is at 149.60, followed by 149.20, 148.25-148.40, 147.65, 146.65-146.85, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are at 150.90, 151.70-152.05, and 153.15.

In the upcoming week's calendar, Tuesday, 5 March, is notable for the announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the Tokyo region. There are no other significant events related to the Japanese economy scheduled for the near future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: New Records for the "Naked King"

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/03/yAlYD.jpeg)

Last week, bitcoin set historical highs against local currencies in many countries. Now, the leading cryptocurrency is aiming to test and possibly surpass its all-time high of $68,917, reached on 10 November 2021. At least, the current dynamics suggest this goal: starting from $50,894 on Monday, 26 February, BTC/USD soared to $63,925 by Wednesday, gaining more than 25% in just three days. At this point, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index jumped to 82 points, entering the Extreme Greed zone. As Matt Simpson, a senior market analyst at City Index, wrote, "If this were any other market, it would probably be classified as 'peak overheating – stay away from this bubble.' But bitcoin has entered a parabolic rally phase, and there are no immediate signs of a peak forming.".

Let's recall that on 1 February, BTC was trading at $41,877. Thus, in 29 days, the digital gold gained approximately 50%, making this past February the most successful month for investors in the last three years. We thoroughly examined the five reasons behind the ongoing bull rally in our previous review, ranging from the most to the least important. Large investments in spot Bitcoin ETFs acted as a catalyst for the frenzied demand for bitcoin. However, as noted by JPMorgan, purchases by retail crypto investors with relatively small amounts have even surpassed the cash flows from large companies at this point.

Glassnode analysts believe that the current situation resembles the boom observed in 2020–2021. The dynamics of capital flows, exchange activity, leverage in crypto derivatives, and demand from both institutional and retail speculators all indicate an explosion in investors' risk appetite. Signs of speculative sentiment have also emerged in the derivatives market. The total open interest (OI) in bitcoin futures reached $21 billion and is also approaching the euphoria levels of 2021. Only in 7% of trading days was the OI value higher. The substantial increase in the liquidation of short positions on bitcoin acted as an additional trigger. 

Investor, founder of Heisenberg Capital, and host of the Keiser Report, Max Keiser, compared investing in the leading cryptocurrency to buying shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway in March 1985, when they were priced at $1,500 each. Since then, the price of these shares has risen to $629,000. According to Keiser, bitcoin has the potential to increase by more than 41,000%. If the leading cryptocurrency experiences such rapid growth, each coin would be worth over $21,000,000, and the digital asset's market capitalization would exceed $450 trillion. (For comparison, the current market capitalization of Apple Inc. is $2.82 trillion, making it one of the most valuable companies in the world, followed by Microsoft at $2.0 trillion, Alphabet at $1.77 trillion, and Amazon at $1.6 trillion).

Furthermore, Max Keiser warned traders and investors of a potential major crash in the US stock market. He stated, "A crash akin to 1987 is coming. Bitcoin is the perfect safe haven, whose price will soar above $500,000." It should be noted that bitcoin has completely "decoupled" from such risk assets as stocks, and its correlation with stock indices such as the S&P500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq has virtually dropped to zero.

After BTC/USD broke through the $56,000 level on 27 February, legendary trader, analyst, and head of Factor LLC, Peter Brandt, revised his forecast for the first cryptocurrency's rate in 2025 from $120,000 to $200,000. The expert raised the bar as bitcoin overcame the upper boundary of resistance of a 15-month channel (on the BTC/USD chart, these are the trend lines that connect the lows of November 2022 and September 2023, as well as the highs of April 2023 and January 2024). According to Brandt, the current bullish cycle will conclude in August-September 2025. By that time, the quotes of the digital gold should reach the stated goal.

Regarding the exit point from the position, Brandt, half-jokingly, half-seriously, wrote that he would use laser eyes on the X network as a "contrarian indicator," just as in 2021. "So, folks," he urged, "if you want bitcoin to maintain a strong trend, please do not post laser eyes on your social media profile picture. Too many laser eyes are a sell signal."

A similar figure was mentioned by ChatGPT-4. According to this Artificial Intelligence, by August 2025, the price of BTC could reach $179,000. However, ChatGPT-4 acknowledged the difficulty of precise forecasting and warned that "these calculations are speculative and depend on a wide range of unpredictable economic, regulatory, and technological factors.".

Regarding the current year, 2024, the price of the first cryptocurrency could reach $150,000 in the next 10 months. This opinion was expressed by Tom Lee, co-founder of the analytical firm Fundstrat, in an interview with CNBC. "ETFs increase demand, halving reduces supply, and the expected easing of monetary policy all support risk assets and bitcoin," he explained. At the same time, the expert believes that a correction in the crypto market should not be expected in the near future. In the long-term perspective, Lee reiterated his January forecast of bitcoin reaching $500,000 within five years. "It's sound money, I think it's proving its utility. It's a great store of value, a good risk asset, and also incredibly safe," added the Fundstrat co-founder.

As of the review's writing on the evening of Friday, 1 March, BTC/USD is trading in the vicinity of $62,500. The total market capitalization of the crypto market has surpassed an important threshold of $2 trillion and reached $2.34 trillion (up from $1.95 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from 76 to 80 points and is in the Extreme Greed zone.

And finally, a fly in the ointment amidst the general rejoicing. Contrary to numerous bitcoin enthusiasts, experts at the European Central Bank believe that the fair value of BTC is... zero. And this is despite the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US and the current price rally.

In November 2022, ECB experts published an article titled "Bitcoin's Last Stand". There, they referred to the stabilization of the cryptocurrency's quotes as "an artificially induced last gasp before the road to ultimate irrelevance". Since then, the price of digital gold has risen from ~$17,000 to ~$60,000. However, this has not caused the bank's specialists to change their opinion. In a new essay titled "ETF Approval - New Clothes for the Naked King", they stated that they were right in their main arguments more than a year ago. Firstly, bitcoin has failed as a global decentralized digital currency for payments. Secondly, the cryptocurrency has not become a suitable investment asset whose value will inevitably increase.

"Bitcoin is still not suitable as an investment," the essay states. "It does not generate any cash flows (like real estate) or dividends (like stocks), cannot be productively used (like commodities), does not offer any social benefits (like gold jewellery), or subjective value based on outstanding abilities (like works of art)," believe ECB experts. It would be interesting to see what they would say if, for example, Max Keiser's forecast comes true, and the "naked king" is worth $21 million per coin.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 06, 2024, 02:20:23 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/06/yE3UP.jpeg)

– Bitcoin appreciated by about 10% in less than a day on March 4, reaching a new all-time high of $69,016. The previous record was $68,917, set on November 10, 2021. The market capitalisation of the leading cryptocurrency exceeded $1.3 trillion. Most of the top 10 crypto assets also saw a 10-30% increase in value over the week.

– The surge in bitcoin on March 4 is reportedly due to purchases by a certain billionaire from Qatar, who flew to Madeira on his private jet for the three-day Bitcoin Atlantis conference. Robert Rodin, CEO of Keychainx, mentioned seeing something at Madeira airport that "could change bitcoin forever." Meanwhile, BTC maximalist Max Keiser shared a video in which El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele greets the Emir of Qatar with the words "It's happening!"
This has sparked discussions about Qatar adding bitcoin to its balance sheet. The validity of such claims remains unproven, but social media is rife with speculation on the matter. It's worth noting that rumours have been circulating for several months about one or two sovereign wealth funds or investment companies from the Middle East secretly buying up bitcoin. There's also the mysterious Mr. 100BTC, who, according to rumours, has been consistently buying 100 bitcoins every day since November 2022. This individual has never emerged from the shadows, but if he does indeed exist, he would have amassed about 60,000 coins to date.

– "We have entered the era of the bitcoin gold rush. It started in January 2024 and will last approximately until November 2034," declared Michael Saylor, the founder of MicroStrategy, speaking at Bitcoin Atlantis. According to his calculations, by that time miners will have extracted 99% of all coins, marking the beginning of the "growth phase." (Currently, 93.5% have already been mined, according to BitcoinTreasuries data).
Saylor believes that at present, only 10-20% of asset managers are interested in spot BTC-ETFs. In the future, as existing barriers are removed, this figure is expected to approach 100%. "When they [the managers] can buy BTC through a bank, a platform, or a prime broker, they'll spend $50 million in an hour," he stated. The MicroStrategy founder is also confident that "the day will come when bitcoin surpasses gold and will be traded more than the S&P 500 ETFs."

– Since its network launch in 2009, bitcoin has repeatedly proven its viability. Over the years, the cryptocurrency has managed to surpass many traditional currencies. Currently, BTC has outperformed the Russian rouble in market capitalisation and occupies the fourteenth position in the overall ranking of the world's largest currencies. Its nearest competitor is the Swiss franc. (Following the news that bitcoin surpassed the rouble, the internet was flooded with jokes suggesting that Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto).
In the overall ranking of the most capitalised assets, which includes precious metals and companies, bitcoin has taken the tenth place. It surpassed Berkshire Hathaway, the company of well-known cryptocurrency critic billionaire Warren Buffett, but fell short of Meta. The top three positions are currently held by gold, Microsoft, and Apple. Additionally, bitcoin's market capitalisation ($1.3 trillion) has reached the GDP levels of many countries. For instance, the Gross Domestic Product of Saudi Arabia is $1.108 trillion, and Indonesia's is $1.319 trillion.
Following bitcoin, Ethereum is positioned at twenty-eighth in the overall ranking of the most capitalised currencies. ETH's result was better than that of the Chilean peso but worse than the Turkish lira.

– Anthony Scaramucci, the founder of Skybridge and former White House Communications Director, asserts that US President Joe Biden has a positive impact on cryptocurrency and the financial markets at large. To support his statement, Scaramucci cited Biden's legislative proposals related to digital assets.
According to the Skybridge chief, the current president's commitment to the rule of law will expedite the establishment of regulations for the crypto industry. "While these rules may not please everyone," Scaramucci writes, "having clear guiding principles will provide a solid foundation for legal arguments in court. [Thanks to this,] we will continue to win against the Biden administration in the United States judicial system."

– Robert F. Kennedy Jr, a contender in the US presidential race, admitted last year that he bought bitcoins for his children. The politician believes that BTC is the best alternative to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) because it offers financial freedom to people.
In a recent interview with CNBC, Robert Kennedy reiterated his view of BTC as the superior currency, emphasizing that it allows Americans to transfer funds anywhere with minimal costs and complete anonymity. "Banks are trying to destroy digital currency and hinder the development of its infrastructure. However, the process of integrating cryptocurrency cannot be stopped anymore, and the repressive measures of the authorities against this instrument only increase its popularity," stated the presidential candidate.

– According to Professor of Physics Giovanni Santostasi, bitcoin could appreciate 64 times in the next 15 years, reaching $10.63 million. This forecast is based on a power-law model.
A power-law relationship is a mathematical connection between two quantities where a relative change in one quantity leads to a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the initial values of these quantities. The relationship between one quantity and another represents a power function. This law is observable in a wide range of natural phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of stock market changes.
Santostasi stated that this model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price change of the first cryptocurrency over long periods. However, over shorter spans, which the media primarily focuses on, the quotations behave chaotically.
According to the professor, unlike the well-known S2F (Stock-to-Flow) model by the analyst known as PlanB, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential. In other words, the price of bitcoin is not expected to rise continuously over time. According to Santostasi's calculations, the digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026, then drop to $60,000, and after that, it will continue its wavy growth to $10.63 million.

– Experts at JPMorgan suggest that the upcoming bitcoin halving in April could trigger a significant drop in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The algorithmically mandated reduction of the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC will decrease mining profitability. Based on this, economists at JPMorgan, led by senior analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the price will fall to $42,000 after the halving.
"The cost of mining bitcoin empirically acts as a price floor," their report states. "Currently, the cost of mining is $26,500. After the halving, this figure will be $42,000." "This is also the level towards which we believe the price will gravitate once the post-halving euphoria subsides in April," JPMorgan notes.
The experts also considered the possibility of a 20% drop in the bitcoin network's hash rate, primarily due to the mass disconnection of low-efficiency equipment. Consequently, the capacity may concentrate among large cryptocurrency miners who have taken measures to reduce costs and maintain efficiency. "There might also be some horizontal integration through mergers and acquisitions among miners in different regions to take advantage of synergies in their business," concluded the specialists.

– Trader Gareth Soloway has identified a critical factor that could propel bitcoin's price to another historical high of $100,000. The expert pointed to a dilemma in the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy management amidst approximately 3% inflation. He emphasized that the institution's reluctance to aggressively cut rates could sustain high inflation, potentially contributing to bitcoin's upward trend. "If we see an increase in liquidity (which is bound to happen), then bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in 2024," writes Soloway. On the way to the mentioned round figure, like the JPMorgan experts, the trader does not exclude a short-term bearish correction. However, in his opinion, the upcoming halving in itself does not guarantee the digital gold's rise to the specified amount.

– Researchers from the University of Texas in the USA have discovered that over four years, cryptocurrency scammers utilizing the "pig butchering" scheme could have stolen more than $75 billion. The "pig butchering" scheme is a fraudulent attack where cybercriminals convince unsuspecting people to invest in a doomed or non-existent business. Once the victim believes and hands over their money, the scammers immediately disappear.
According to the study, from January 2020 to February 2024, such criminals duped at least 4,000 people. The illegal operations predominantly took place in Southeast Asia. The researchers found that tracked transactions amounting to $15 billion out of the reported $75 billion led to five cryptocurrency exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, OKX, Crypto.com, and HTX (formerly Huobi). The favorite asset among criminals was the stablecoin Tether (USDT), with more than 84% of the total transaction volume attributed to this popular coin.
Paolo Ardoino, CEO of Tether's issuer, stated that the report is rather misleading. "Every Tether transaction occurs online, so any action can be tracked, assets can be confiscated, and the criminal caught. This is why we cooperate with law enforcement agencies," he commented to Bloomberg. It's noteworthy that the United Nations (UN) has also previously stated that USDT is one of the most popular means of payment among criminal groups in Southeast Asia. Representatives of the issuer then questioned the accuracy of such data.

– In the summer of 2022, it would have been the 110th birthday of Milton Friedman, the great economist and Nobel Prize laureate, often called "the most influential economist of the second half of the 20th century." Back in 1999, Friedman gave an interview in which he predicted the emergence of digital currencies. He described a system where transactions are conducted electronically, and the parties involved do not need to know each other's identities. In his forecast, Friedman highlighted the potential of digital currencies to provide unprecedented privacy and efficiency in financial transactions, marking a significant departure from traditional banking systems.
"I think that the internet is going to be one of the major forces for reducing the role of government," said the distinguished scientist at the time. "The one thing that’s missing but will soon be developed is reliable electronic cash, a method whereby on the Internet you can transfer funds from A to B without A knowing B or B knowing A."
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 08, 2024, 11:08:44 AM
NordFX's New Mega Super Lottery: 202+4 Prizes in 2024

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/08/yVqFD.jpeg)

The new mega super lottery by brokerage firm NordFX kicked off on 8 March this year, featuring a multitude of cash prizes ranging from $250 to $5,000, amounting to a total of $100,000.

The Super Lottery with a prize pool of $100,000 has become a tradition, as NordFX has been hosting it for the fourth consecutive year. Over this time, more than 500 clients of this broker have emerged as winners. Unlike traders' contests, the lottery's undeniable advantage is that both experienced professionals and newcomers have completely equal chances of winning. Another benefit is that lottery winners receive their prizes in real money, not bonuses, which they can either use for further trading or withdraw without any restrictions.

There's also a third advantage: becoming a lottery participant and getting a chance to win one or even several prizes is very straightforward. You just need to have a Pro account with NordFX (or register and open a new one), fund it with $200, and simply trade. By making a trade turnover of just 2 lots in Forex currency pairs or gold (or 4 lots in silver), a trader automatically receives a virtual lottery ticket. The number of tickets per participant is unlimited. The more deposits and the higher the turnover, the more lottery tickets a participant will have, and the greater their chances of becoming one of the winners. The Super Lottery from NordFX is an excellent opportunity for traders not only to try their luck in winning cash prizes but also to increase their trading activity and possibly discover new trading strategies.

The slogan of this year's lottery, "Your 202+4 Chances to Win in 2024," makes it clear there will be plenty of prizes. This year, winners will receive 202 prizes (140 of $250, 30 of $500, 20 of $750, and 12 of $1,250) plus an additional 4 super prizes of $5,000 each. The total prize pool of $100,000 is divided into three parts: $20,000 will be played out in both the summer and autumn draws, and the third, New Year's, and most significant draw will have $60,000 in prizes.

For more details, visit NordFX's website. You can become a participant of the Mega Super Lottery 2024 and start receiving lottery tickets right now.


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 09, 2024, 11:18:17 AM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 11 - 15, 2024


EUR/USD: A Bad Week for the Dollar

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/09/yoaO1.jpeg)

The past week was dominated by the European Central Bank (ECB)'s meeting on Thursday, 7 March. As anticipated, the pan-European regulator decided to maintain its current monetary policy, leaving the interest rate unchanged at 4.50%. This move reaffirmed its commitment to steering inflation into the desired range. The ECB aims to be absolutely certain that inflation is consistently moving towards its 2.0% target, which currently stands at 2.6%.

According to analysis from ANZ Bank, a reduction in euro rates is expected in Q2. "Our interpretation of current ECB official guidance is that hawks are on the rise and prefer to wait for more detailed wage growth data before initiating a rate cut. We believe a consensus will be reached in June," ANZ economists wrote.

This expectation was echoed by Gediminas Šimkus, a member of the ECB Governing Council and head of Lithuania's central bank, on Friday, 8 March. He stated that "all conditions are set for a transition to a less stringent monetary policy, with a rate cut in June being very likely. While a cut in April cannot be ruled out, the likelihood is low." He added that there is no reason to reduce the rate by more than 25 basis points in one go.

It's important to note that the Federal Reserve usually acts more aggressively than the ECB, changing its rate more frequently and with greater amplitude. To see this, one only needs to look at the statistics from the last 10 years. According to analysts at Commerzbank, this means that if both central banks start their easing cycles at the same time, the dollar rate could very quickly fall below the euro rate, which would support an increase in the EUR/USD exchange rate.

However, what the cycles will look like this time remains unclear. The CME FedWatch Tool estimates a 56% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. Yet, speaking to the US Congress on 6-7 March, Fed Chair Jerome Powell only vaguely stated that the regulator would ease monetary policy "at some point this year".

A statement by Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, proved to be more interesting. Speaking at the European Centre for Economics and Finance, she expressed concerns about the continued steady decrease in inflation throughout the year. Therefore, in Mester's view, it would be appropriate to keep the rate at its current level of 5.50%. The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland also suggested that if economic conditions align with forecasts, the likelihood of a rate cut towards the end of the year might increase.

Regarding the macroeconomic statistics released last week, Eurostat's final assessment showed that the Eurozone economy grew by 0% in quarterly terms over the last three months of 2023. Year-on-year, GDP increased by 0.1%. Both figures matched preliminary estimates and market expectations, thus having no impact on the exchange rates.

Throughout the week, the dollar was under pressure, and not just due to Jerome Powell's "dull" Congressional testimony. US macroeconomic reports appeared relatively weak. For instance, the ISM Services Sector Business Activity Index for February fell from 53.4 points to 52.6 points. Manufacturing orders in January also dropped by 3.6%, which was worse than the 2.9% forecast. The number of job openings (JOLTS) in the US last month was 8.863 million, down from 8.889 million the previous month, and initial unemployment claims for the week ending on 2 March rose to 217K, exceeding the 215K forecast. All these factors together led to the EUR/USD pair moving out of the narrow range of 1.0800-1.0865, in which it had been trading since 20 February, and rising to the 1.0900 mark.

Labour market statistics released on Friday, 8 March, could have supported the dollar, but this did not happen, even though the market's reaction was somewhat puzzling. On one hand, the number of new jobs created outside of the agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls) was 275K, significantly exceeding both the previous figure of 229K and the forecast of 198K. Typically, such indicators would push the EUR/USD pair down. However, this time, it sharply rose instead. This likely relates to the unemployment rate increasing from 3.7% to 3.9% (with a forecast of 3.7%) and the average hourly earnings showing a sharp drop from 0.5% (month-over-month) to 0.1% (against a forecast of 0.2%). It seems the last two indicators outweighed the positive effect from the NFP. Market participants decided that these would be additional arguments in favour of a more imminent interest rate cut, resulting in EUR/USD soaring to 1.0980.

Subsequently, the excitement settled, and EUR/USD closed at 1.0937. As for the short-term outlook, as of the evening of Friday, 8 March, 35% of experts were in favour of the dollar strengthening and the pair falling, while 65% sided with the euro. Trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart are 100% coloured in green, with a quarter of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels for the pair are situated in the 1.0845-1.0865 zone, followed by 1.0800, then 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are located around 1.0970-1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140, up to 1.1230-1.1275.

The upcoming week is expected to be quite tumultuous. Significant volatility can be anticipated on Tuesday, 12 March, with the release of consumer inflation (CPI) data in Germany and the USA. On Thursday, 14 March, retail sales statistics and the Producer Price Index (PPI) in the United States will be announced. The week will conclude with the publication of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday, 15 March.

GBP/USD: A Good Week for the Pound

Starting the week at 1.2652, GBP/USD recorded a local high of 1.2893 on Friday, gaining 241 points and breaking out of the medium-term sideways channel of 1.2600-1.2800. The first reason for such dynamics is the weakness of the dollar, as mentioned earlier. The second reason is the positive economic statistics from the UK: the Construction PMI increased from 48.8 to 49.7. This indicates that the real estate sector is almost overcoming a period of stagnation, which, in turn, will eventually provide significant support to the country's economy.

There's also a third reason. In our last review, we warned that a key event for the pound sterling last week would be the announcement of the UK Government's budget on Wednesday, 6 March. This pre-election budget could significantly impact the British currency, which in 2024 is the second most successful G10 currency after the US dollar.

Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt, presenting the spring government budget, called it a plan for long-term growth. Hunt announced various benefits and subsidies amounting to £1.8 billion, as well as an allocation of £360 million for funding research and development in the biomedical sector, car manufacturing, and aerospace production. The government will also assist British households by partially reducing taxes. Moreover, it will actively stimulate economic growth to ensure the prosperity of the country's citizens. Specifically, the temporary reduction in duties on fuel and alcohol will continue.

Hunt also stated that inflation could fall to 2.0% by the end of the year, and the UK's GDP this year would grow by 0.8%. Overall, the finance minister's figures and promises, as is customary before elections, were quite impressive, allowing the pound to strongly challenge the dollar.

But will this boost of strength last for the British currency? Economists at HSBC note that the UK still faces a challenging combination of inflation and growth. This limits the Bank of England (BoE)'s ability to maintain a maximally hawkish stance compared to other central banks. As it becomes more dovish, the pound may face significant downward pressure in the coming months.

GBP/USD concluded last week at 1.2858. Analysts' opinions on its near-term behaviour are divided: a majority (60%) predict a decline, 20% anticipate growth, and 20% remain neutral. Among trend indicators and oscillators on the D1 chart, the situation mirrors that of EUR/USD: all point north, although 25% of oscillators signal the pair is overbought. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2800-1.2815, 1.2750, 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, and 1.2330. In the event of an upward trend, resistance will be met at levels 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

On Wednesday, 13 March, the UK's GDP data for January 2024 will be released. The country's economy is expected to show growth of 0.2%, reversing a decline of -0.1% in December, which would confirm Jeremy Hunt's optimism. No other significant macroeconomic statistics regarding the UK economy are scheduled for release next week.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 09, 2024, 11:21:21 AM
USD/JPY: A Great Week for the Yen

If the past week was very good for the pound, it was simply great for the Japanese yen. USD/JPY reached a local minimum of 146.47 on the evening of Friday, 8 March, meaning the yen reclaimed more than 360 points from the dollar.

In addition to the weakening of the dollar, the yen was bolstered by rumours that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may soon decide to normalize its monetary policy. Citing informed sources, Reuters reported that "if the results of the spring wage negotiations [on 13 March] are strong, the Bank of Japan may not have to wait until April" to exit its negative interest rate policy, and that the BoJ "is leaning towards ending negative rates as early as March."

Another report by Jiji News mentioned that "the Bank of Japan is considering a new quantitative framework for its monetary policy, which will outline the prospects for future government bond purchases." "The Bank of Japan," Jiji continues, "will review its Yield Curve Control (YCC) as part of considering a new quantitative policy.".

Thus, Wednesday, 13 March, could become a significant day for the Japanese currency, as could 19 March, when the next meeting of the Bank of Japan is scheduled. It's possible the regulator might increase the interest rate on this day for the first time since 2016. However, analysts at the French Natixis Bank believe that if there is an increase, it would be very slight. "In reality, the depreciation of the yen is beneficial for the Japanese economy," the bank's analysts write. "It helps to bring inflation back to the 2% target and stimulates exports. Since Japan has very significant net foreign assets, primarily in dollars and euros, a depreciation of the yen leads to a capital gain in yen value of these external assets." "As a result," Natixis concludes, "one should not expect Japan to move to a tighter monetary policy. At most, a symbolic increase in the base rate can be expected."

Commerzbank holds a similar position, believing that the yen's potential is limited, and a strong appreciation, especially in the medium and long term, should not be expected. According to Commerzbank economists, this is due to the Bank of Japan's lack of capacity for a pronounced normalization of interest rates.

USD/JPY concluded last week at 147.06. As for the near future, it's impossible to come to a consensus: 20% sided with the bears, an equal 20% with the bulls, and 60% remained undecided. Among the oscillators on the D1 chart, only 15% are coloured in green, while the remaining 85% are in red, with 40% indicating an oversold condition. The distribution of strength among trend indicators is exactly the same: 85% to 15% in favour of the reds. The nearest support levels are found at 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 147.65, 148.25-148.40, 149.20, 150.00, 150.85, 151.55-152.00, and 153.15.

In the upcoming week's calendar, noteworthy events include the announcement of Japan's Q4 2023 GDP volume on Monday, 11 March. Additionally, as previously mentioned, the wage negotiations on 13 March are of significant interest. No other major events related to the Japanese economy are planned for the near future.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Two Historic Records in One Week

In less than 24 hours on 4 March, bitcoin appreciated by approximately 10% and reached the mark of $69,016. This was a new (but not the last) historical record, surpassing the previous one of $68,917 set on 10 November 2021. Most top-10 crypto assets also saw a 10-30% increase in value over the week.

This surge in bitcoin is attributed to purchases by a supposed billionaire from Qatar, who flew in on his private jet to Madeira for the three-day Bitcoin Atlantis conference. Keychainx CEO Robert Rodin wrote that he saw something at Madeira airport that "could forever change bitcoin." BTC maximalist Max Keiser, in turn, shared a video in which the President of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, greets the Emir of Qatar with the words "It's happening!"

What exactly Rodin and Bukele meant is unknown. However, this was enough to fuel discussions about Qatar adding bitcoins to its balance sheet. The accuracy of such claims is unproven, but social networks are abuzz with speculation on this matter. It's worth noting that rumours about one or two sovereign wealth funds or investment companies from the Middle East secretly buying up bitcoins have been circulating for several months.

Following the update of its historical high, bitcoin then plunged, dropping to $59,107 on 5 March, with forced liquidations on the futures market reaching $1 billion. However, this dip was short-lived as whales bought up much of the supply, not only returning the market to its previous dynamics but also setting a new record: on 8 March, the leading cryptocurrency reached $69,972. This is largely because most market participants anticipate its continued growth, surpassing at least the $100,000 mark.

According to trader Gareth Soloway, the upcoming bitcoin halving in April does not guarantee by itself that the digital gold will reach the mentioned size. Soloway identifies the monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve as the deciding factor. The Fed's reluctance to aggressively cut interest rates could support high inflation, potentially contributing to bitcoin's upward trend. "If we see an increase in liquidity (which will definitely happen), then bitcoin will rise to $100,000 in 2024," writes Soloway. However, on its way to this round figure, the trader does not rule out a short-term bearish correction.

Experts at JPMorgan also discuss the possibility that the halving could trigger a sharp decrease in the price of the first cryptocurrency. The algorithmic reduction of the reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC will decrease mining profitability. Based on this, economists at JPMorgan, led by senior analyst Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the price will fall to $42,000 after the halving. "The cost of mining bitcoin empirically acts as a floor for its price," their report states. "After the halving, this metric will be $42,000." "This is also the level towards which, in our view, the price will gravitate once the post-halving euphoria subsides in April," note JPMorgan's experts.

According to the well-known Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, the primary cryptocurrency has transitioned from the accumulation phase to the growth phase. The accumulation phase is characterized by a relatively smooth price increase, low volatility, and moderate corrections, with the maximum drawdown in the concluded cycle not exceeding 22%. The growth phase presents a different picture. Historical data shows that during movements towards new highs, drawdowns ranged from 36% to 71%. JPMorgan has predicted a drop in bitcoin to $42,000. At the current price, this correction would be approximately 36-40%, aligning with the lower end of the specified range. A 70% correction, however, could lead to a significantly deeper fall.

How could this happen? Initially, to stay afloat, miners, whose incomes will be halved, will begin to sell off their stocks. Then, institutional and short-term speculators, looking to lock in profits, will join in. Concurrently, stop orders will start to trigger, leading to an avalanche-like plunge in quotations. And if investors who have put their money into spot BTC-ETFs also join this "crypto-fall", the depth of the drop could be hard to imagine. It's worth noting that in January-February, BTC-ETFs attracted 75% of all investments in the main cryptocurrency, and there are no guarantees that panic sentiment won't affect the depositors of these funds.

However deep the correction might be, bitcoin, in the opinion of many experts, will still remain within the long-term upward trend. "We have entered the era of the bitcoin gold rush. It started in January 2024 and will last approximately until November 2034," believes MicroStrategy's founder Michael Saylor. According to his calculations, by that time, miners will have extracted 99% of all coins, marking the beginning of the "growth phase." (According to BitcoinTreasuries, 93.5% has already been mined as of now).

Saylor believes that currently, only 10-20% of asset managers are interested in spot BTC-ETFs. In the future, as existing barriers are removed, this figure will approach 100%. "When they [managers] can buy BTC through a bank, platform, or prime broker, they'll spend $50 million in an hour," he stated. The founder of MicroStrategy also expressed confidence that "there will come a day when bitcoin will surpass gold and will be traded more than the S&P 500 ETFs."

In the next 15 years, bitcoin could appreciate 64 times to reach $10.63 million. This forecast was made by Professor Giovanni Santostasi based on a power-law model. According to the scientist, this model provides a clear and predictable scenario for the price change of the first cryptocurrency over long periods. However, over shorter spans, which the media primarily focus on, the quotations behave chaotically. Unlike the S2F model by the analyst known as PlanB, the power law is logarithmic, not exponential. In other words, the price of bitcoin is not expected to constantly increase over time. According to Santostasi's calculations, digital gold will peak at $210,000 in January 2026, then drop to $60,000, and after that, it will continue its wave-like growth to $10.63 million.

(For reference: A power-law relationship is a mathematical relationship between two quantities where a relative change in one quantity leads to a proportional relative change in the other, regardless of the initial values of those quantities. The manifestation of this law can be found across a wide range of natural phenomena, from the frequency of earthquakes to the dynamics of stock market changes.).

As of the evening of Friday, 8 March, BTC/USD is trading at around $68,100. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has slightly risen from 80 to 81 points, entering the Extreme Greed zone. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies stands at $2.60 trillion (up from $2.34 trillion a week ago), with the main cryptocurrency's dominance index at nearly 52%, and its capitalization exceeding $1.35 trillion. This surpasses the fiat currency market capitalizations of Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the UAE, Mexico, and many other countries. A few days ago, BTC surpassed the Russian ruble in capitalization, taking the 14th spot in the overall ranking of the largest currencies, with the Swiss franc as its nearest competitor. Amid news that bitcoin exceeded the rouble, jokes flooded the internet suggesting Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto. Ethereum ranked 28th, performing better than the Chilean peso but not as well as the Turkish lira.

In the overall ranking of the most capitalized assets, which includes precious metals and companies, bitcoin secured the 10th place. It surpassed Berkshire Hathaway, the company of well-known cryptocurrency critic billionaire Warren Buffett, but did not reach Meta. The top 3 are currently occupied by gold, Microsoft, and Apple.
 

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 13, 2024, 02:48:39 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

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– In a CNBC interview, former US President and Republican Party leader Donald Trump highlighted the importance of the American national currency and compared moving away from the dollar standard to a defeat. At the same time, he stated that he does not plan to obstruct the use of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies if he wins the election in November. "If you think about it, it's an additional form of currency," Trump remarked. "Bitcoin is widely used, and I'm not sure I would want to give it up right now," the politician added. However, when asked by the interviewer if he himself invests in cryptocurrency, the former (and possibly future) president responded negatively.

– Balaji Srinivasan, former CTO of Coinbase and a general partner at a16z, has declared we are in the phase of treasury plunder amidst an empire's collapse. Bitcoin, he asserts, is the only available salvation from inflation and the potential confiscation of assets in the US, which could result from the unsustainable trajectory of government spending. According to his calculations, the US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, having increased by 25% since 2020, and continues to grow by $1 trillion every 90 days. The US government spends $10 billion more daily than it receives. Based on this, Srinivasan did not rule out that, as we approach a "financial reckoning" for such behaviour, the "insatiable state" might consider the confiscation of private assets.
"Private property will not be protected by the state in a bankrupt blue (Democratic) America. Any blockchain under Washington's control is vulnerable. Fortunately, we have digital gold that is independent of the state and cannot be confiscated. Bitcoin maximalism will triumph. It will save us from state budgeting," believes the former CTO of Coinbase. Although he refrained from specifying when the "reckoning" would occur, he reminded that the inevitability of such a scenario had previously been mentioned by Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, Larry Fink, and Stanley Druckenmiller.

– Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has urged the US Federal Reserve to postpone cutting interest rates until June and shared his views on the first cryptocurrency, as reported by CNBC citing the businessman's speech at the Australian Financial Review summit. "I don't know what bitcoin is for, but just as with the right to smoke a cigarette, I'll support your right to buy bitcoin. Personally, however, I would never buy it," he stated, adding that the use of digital assets is often associated with illegal activities, including human trafficking, fraud, and terrorism.

– William Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, has attributed bitcoin mining as one of the causes for inflation increase and the fall of the US dollar. "The rise in bitcoin prices leads to an increase in mining and energy consumption, raising the latter's cost, thus causing inflation to rise and the dollar to decline. This stimulates demand for bitcoin, its mining, and energy consumption. The cycle continues, bitcoin goes into infinity, energy prices skyrocket, and the economy collapses," the billionaire described his scenario, adding that this relationship "works in reverse as well."
"Wondering if I should buy bitcoin in such a situation?" Ackman pondered, to which another billionaire, MicroStrategy founder Michael Saylor, replied, "You should buy some bitcoin, but not for the reasons mentioned above. Most bitcoin miners actually help to reduce the cost of electricity for other consumers, not the other way around. Let me know if you want to discuss this issue one-on-one," he wrote.

– Michael Saylor believes that bitcoin will "eat" gold in the future, becoming a more valuable asset because it possesses all the advantages of gold while being free from its disadvantages. Saylor pointed out that precious metal cannot be moved quickly, whereas bitcoin can be transferred to a new owner instantly.
The appearance of the first cryptocurrency in various investment products is a sign of the asset's future dominance, according to the MicroStrategy co-founder. The digital asset will also begin to take market share from other risky investment products, with Saylor naming the S&P 500 ETF fund as one of the potential "victims."
It is noteworthy that bitcoin, having risen above $72,000 per coin, surpassed silver in market capitalization on March 11, 2024. The first cryptocurrency moved to the eighth position in the ranking of the largest assets by this indicator, overcoming the $1.4 trillion mark.

– Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Research at his company, evaluated the US budget for 2025 proposed by Joe Biden's team. The researcher's conclusion is that the Democrats anticipate BTC reaching $250,000 within a decade: by 2034-2035. This is inferred from the taxes laid out by the White House in the budget. However, the expert clarified that there are no direct indications of this price in the budget. Conclusions are drawn based on the assessment of potential profits from taxes and the regulation of the cryptocurrency market.
Rochard draws another conclusion from the White House documents. According to his analysis, the mining industry in the US could experience exponential growth. This could be due to the active development of the US market and an excess of electrical energy, leading to a tenfold increase in this industry.

– Following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US earlier this year, demand for the flagship crypto asset significantly exceeded the daily supply of bitcoin mined by miners, and the halving scheduled for the third decade of April will only intensify this imbalance. As a result, many analysts believe that the price of bitcoin is in the early stages of a super-cycle, fuelled by institutional investors and issues in the global macroeconomy.
At the time of writing this overview, the maximum price of bitcoin was recorded at $73,556. Analysts at Matrixport are optimistic about the coin's global future. However, according to them, a risk-reward analysis suggests that the coin's quotes may soon adjust. "This bull market still has legs," Matrixport believes, "but the divergence between the decreasing RSI and high BTC prices may signal that bitcoin needs to consolidate before it can start increasing in price again."
Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes that a market retracement of 20-30% is quite possible in the near future. He also noted that he expects a lot from altcoins, which have not yet reached record levels.

– Raoul Pal, the founder of investment firm Real Vision, has forecasted the targets BTC, ETH, and SOL could reach in the near future. He suggested that the target mark for bitcoin in the near term is $250,000 per coin. Moreover, the first cryptocurrency might exceed this projected level due to the high demand for spot bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming April halving is also expected to boost demand for this cryptocurrency.
Raoul Pal is also bullish on Ethereum, predicting its value could rise to between $17,000 and $20,000, thanks to the utility of smart contracts. Currently, ETH is trading around $4,000, but unlike bitcoin, it has yet to surpass its record: in November 2021, Ethereum reached a level of $4,856. The Real Vision founder believes that the altcoin's growth could be influenced by its strong correlation with bitcoin, anticipation of the launch of spot ETH ETFs, and the Dencun update.
Pal forecasts that the price of Solana could range from $700 to $1,000, as the blockchain's high performance will increase demand for this coin. In early November 2021, SOL reached its peak at $260, indicating the coin still has plenty of growth potential.

– Bernstein analysts believe that shares of mining companies remain the best proxy investments in bitcoin as the cryptocurrency moves towards a target mark of $150,000. In a note to clients, they point out that historically, miners' stock prices have almost always outperformed bitcoin in terms of growth rate during a bull market. As we are in the middle of the current cycle, every "weakness window" for miners of digital gold is, in experts' opinion, an opportunity to buy their shares.
Bernstein asserts that the segment is currently dominated by retail investors, while institutional investors mostly avoid "bitcoin-proxy" investments due to their ongoing scepticism towards cryptocurrencies. However, as the asset grows to new highs, analysts expect this category of investors' interest in miners' stocks to awaken, making them the primary beneficiaries of capital inflow.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 16, 2024, 01:42:10 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 18 - 22, 2024


EUR/USD: Stubborn Inflation Refuses to Back Down

Market participants last week were keenly focused on inflation data from the US. The FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the Federal Reserve is scheduled for Wednesday, 20 March, and these figures will undoubtedly influence the Committee's decision on interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that more evidence of a sustainable slowdown in inflation would be necessary to start cutting rates. However, it appears that such evidence is lacking. Data released on Tuesday, 12 March, showed that prices, instead of decreasing, have been on the rise.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), excluding food and energy, was expected to increase by 0.3% but actually rose by 0.4% month-on-month. Year-on-year, inflation in February increased by 3.8%, slightly above the forecast of 3.7%. The overall CPI showed a monthly increase of 0.4% and an annual rise of 3.2%. Thus, the overall CPI has increased by 4.2% on an annual basis over the last three months, marking the highest level since June of the previous year. Certainly, this surge in inflation is not a cause for panic, but it is too early to declare a complete victory over it, for which the Fed raised rates to the highest level in 40 years.

Additional arguments for the Federal Reserve to refrain from hastily cutting rates emerged on Thursday, 14 March. It was found that industrial inflation, measured by the Producer Price Index (PPI), increased from 0.3% to 0.6% month-on-month, against market expectations of 0.3%. Against this backdrop, the yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds sharply increased, providing support to the dollar.

Beyond CPI and PPI, there's a third argument in favour of maintaining the Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy: the labour market, which remains relatively robust. Despite the highest unemployment rate increase in two years (from 3.7% to 3.9%), the number of new jobs created outside of the agricultural sector (NonFarm Payrolls) reached 275K, significantly exceeding both the previous figure of 229K and the forecast of 198K. Additionally, real wages continued to grow year-on-year in February.

Against the backdrop mentioned above, the euro faced pressure last week. Moderately dovish statements from officials at the European Central Bank (ECB) did not provide any relief. On Thursday, the bank's chief economist, Philip Lane, in an interview with CNBC, stated that wages are moving in the right direction. However, he added, the EU's monetary authorities avoid giving clear forecasts regarding further steps and must make decisions at each specific meeting.

According to Peter Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and head of the National Bank of Slovakia, it would be wise to wait until June for the first rate cut. "Rushing this step is unwise and disadvantageous," he said. "Upside risks to inflation are alive and well. More convincing data on inflation prospects are needed. [And] only in June will we reach the threshold of confidence in this matter." "But the discussion on easing should start now," added the head of the National Bank of Slovakia.

Olli Rehn, a member of the ECB's Governing Council and head of the Bank of Finland, spoke similarly. He confirmed the start of discussions on reducing the restrictive aspect of the bank's monetary policy. When asked about the appropriate time to begin rate cuts, he carefully replied, "If inflation continues to decline, it would be possible to gradually start lifting the foot off the monetary policy brake pedal."

The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, published on 15 March, showed a slight decrease to 76.5 from the previous value and forecast of 76.9. Following this, EUR/USD ended the working week at 1.0886. As for the near-term outlook, as of the evening of Friday, 15 March, 75% of experts voted for a strengthening dollar and a decline in the pair, with 15% siding with the euro and 10% taking a neutral stance. Oscillator readings on the D1 are evenly distributed: one-third are coloured green, one-third red, and one-third neutral grey. Trend indicators' force ratio is such: 35% recommend selling the pair, while 65% recommend buying it. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0845-1.0865, followed by 1.0800, then 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are found at 1.0920, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, 1.1100-1.1140, and 1.1230-1.1275.

In the coming week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) value for the Eurozone will be released on Monday, 18 March. However, as the ECB meeting has already taken place, this indicator is unlikely to provoke a strong market reaction. The main event of the week, as mentioned, will be the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on Wednesday, 20 March. It is expected to be the fifth consecutive meeting where the federal funds rate remains unchanged at 5.50%. The greatest interest for economists and investors will likely lie in the subsequent Federal Reserve leadership press conference, where they hope to hear hints about the start date for monetary policy easing. Currently, according to CME FedWatch, there is a 40% chance that the reduction will begin in June.

Apart from these events, a comprehensive package of data on business activity (PMI) across various sectors of the economy in the US, Germany, and the Eurozone, set to be released on Thursday, 21 March, also presents interest. On the same day, traditional data on the number of initial unemployment claims in the US will be published.

GBP/USD: More Negatives than Positives for the Pound

Last week, the dollar was recovering from the losses it suffered in the first ten days of March. On one hand, GBP/USD was pressured by rising inflation in the US, and on the other hand, by weak macroeconomic statistics from the United Kingdom. Data published on Tuesday, 12 March, confirmed the cooling of the country's labour market. In January, employment decreased by 21K (against a forecasted increase of 10K), and the unemployment rate rose from 3.8% to 3.9% (forecasted at 3.8%). Additionally, the number of claims for unemployment benefits sharply increased from 3.1K in January to 16.8K in February. Meanwhile, the wage growth of UK workers slowed down, marking the slowest pace since 2022.

Market participants' pessimism increased on Wednesday, 13 March. It was revealed that although the country's GDP grew by 0.2% in January, industrial production fell from +0.6% to -0.2% month-on-month and from +0.6% to +0.5% year-on-year. The manufacturing sector saw an even sharper decline, from +0.8% to 0.0% month-on-month and from +2.3% to +2.0% year-on-year.

All these data strengthen the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) soon shifting to a more dovish monetary policy. Some estimates suggest this could happen as early as May. If data from the United Kingdom continue to worsen, the probability of a pound interest rate cut in the coming months will only increase, pushing GBP/USD further down.

"GBP/USD could fall as the UK continues to stagnate and the Bank of England finally begins to cut rates," analysts at the French bank Societe Generale believe. Economists at the Dutch Rabobank also see potential for significant strengthening of the dollar against the British currency over a 1 to 3-month horizon. However, Rabobank forecasts that the interest rate differential, signs of improvement in the UK's economic outlook, combined with the prospect of uneventful elections in the country and a relatively stable political backdrop, should provide moderate support to the pound. "We believe," the bank's economists write, "that over a 12-month perspective, GBP/USD will recover to the 1.3000 area.".

The pair closed the week at 1.2734. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were divided as follows: a majority (65%) voted for a decline, 20% for an increase, and 15% remained neutral. Among the D1 oscillators, 40% point north, only 10% south, and 50% east. Trend indicators have 65% looking upwards and 35% in the opposite direction. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2695-1.2710, 1.2575-1.2610, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, and 1.2330. In the event of an upward move, resistance will be met at levels 1.2755, 1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

In addition to the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the upcoming week will also feature a meeting of the Bank of England, scheduled for Thursday, 21 March. The day before, we will learn about the inflation situation (CPI) in the United Kingdom, and just before the BoE meeting, preliminary data on business activity (PMI) in the country will be released. The workweek will conclude with the publication of retail sales data in the United Kingdom.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 16, 2024, 01:43:18 PM
USD/JPY: What to Expect from the Bank of Japan

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The upcoming week, on Tuesday, 19 March, will also see a meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Consequently, speculation regarding an imminent shift in the regulator's monetary policy is mounting. Analysts at TD Securities have shifted their forecast for a yen rate hike from April to March. "Following a positive round of wage negotiations, we believe the Bank of Japan has the necessary information to raise the rate at next week's meeting," they write. TD Securities expects that if the rate is increased, such a move away from NIRP could easily push USD/JPY to 145.00. However, if the BoJ does not do so but attempts to sound hawkish, hinting at the possibility of a policy reversal in April, the pair might rise, but only slightly – to 150.00.

Rabobank analysts also discussed the potential tone of the Bank of Japan's statements. "If the Bank of Japan exits its negative interest rate policy on 19 March, it is likely that rates will only be raised by 10 or 15 basis points (bps)," the Rabobank experts believe. "Furthermore, at best, the Bank of Japan's guidance next week will be cautiously optimistic. It is important to note that even after the negative rate is relegated to economic history, Japan's monetary policy settings will likely remain accommodative." Rabobank does not rule out that a very cautious tone from the BoJ regarding further changes may increase the risk of a "sell the fact" reaction post-19 March. "Nevertheless, despite the risk of a short-term increase in the pair, we continue to see the possibility of USD/JPY declining to 146.00 in a three-month perspective," conclude the Rabobank economists.

Strategists at Standard Chartered echo similar sentiments. Like many of their peers, they anticipate that the Bank of Japan will end its ultra-loose policy in March rather than April. However, in their view, the expected policy adjustment is unlikely to signal the start of an aggressive rate-hiking cycle. The abolition of the negative interest rate policy (NIRP) will not alter the negative yield differential with other countries. Nonetheless, the potential cessation of yield curve control (YCC) should ultimately be positive for the yen, especially if the Federal Reserve and the ECB start cutting rates from June. In this scenario, Standard Chartered strategists believe that by the end of Q2 2024, USD/JPY could fall to 145.00.

Economists at ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, have repeatedly emphasized that a sustainable rally in the yen is more dependent on cuts in the Federal Reserve's rates than on rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. "We still believe that it will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond the volatility surrounding the rate hike until rates in the US are reduced. This remains our base scenario for this year," they write.

Societe Generale analysts are notably optimistic about the Japanese yen in their forecasts. They believe the yen is the only G7 currency likely to significantly appreciate against the US dollar this year. Even if the Bank of Japan's steps away from negative interest rates and yield curve control on 19 March are fairly symbolic, the yen is still expected to strengthen, as it is currently considered undervalued.

Throughout the past week, USD/JPY, buoyed by a strengthening dollar, rose and concluded at 149.05. Looking ahead, whereas a majority of analysts sided with the dollar in EUR/USD and GBP/USD, the situation here is reversed – in anticipation of a historic move by the Bank of Japan, 65% of experts leaned towards the bearish side for the pair, with 35% remaining undecided. No votes were cast in favour of the American currency. Technical analysis tools seem unaware of the Bank of Japan's meeting, which is why only 35% of D1 oscillators favoured the yen, 25% favoured the dollar, and 40% remained neutral. Trend indicators show a clear advantage for the dollar – 90% are coloured green, and only 10% red. The nearest support levels are located at 148.40, 147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are at 150.00, 150.85, 151.55-152.00, 153.15.

Apart from the Bank of Japan meeting, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days. Traders should also note that Wednesday, 20 March, is a public holiday in Japan: the country observes the Vernal Equinox Day.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Riding the Wave of FOMO to New Historical Highs

FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) is currently the dominant sentiment in the market, driving the leading cryptocurrency to new heights. Another record was set on Thursday, 14 March, when BTC/USD reached $73,743.

Following the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs in the US earlier this year, demand for the flagship crypto asset has significantly outstripped the daily supply of bitcoin mined by miners. The halving, scheduled for the third decade of April, will only intensify this imbalance. Despite these two drivers remaining on the agenda, their endless discussion has started to weary market participants. As a result, the focus has shifted towards issues of the global economy, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, and the upcoming presidential elections in the US.

Starting with the potential Presidents of the United States, specifically what could happen if the White House is won by one of the two main contenders. Former US President and Republican Party leader Donald Trump emphasized the importance of the American national currency in a CNBC interview, comparing a departure from the dollar standard to defeat. At the same time, he stated he would not interfere with the use of bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies if he wins the elections in November. "If you think about it, it's an additional form of currency," Trump said. "[Bitcoin] is widely used, and I'm not sure I'd want to give it up right now," the politician added. However, when asked by the host if he himself invests in cryptocurrency, the former (and potentially future) president answered negatively.

Regarding the current White House occupant, a study conducted by Pierre Rochard, Vice President of Riot, is of interest. He assessed the US budget for 2025, proposed by Joe Biden's team, and concluded that Democrats are expecting BTC to reach $250,000 over a decade – by 2034-2035. This is suggested by the taxes laid out by the White House in the budget. However, the expert clarified that the document, of course, does not contain direct indications of this price. Conclusions are made based on the assessment of potential profit from taxes and regulation of the cryptocurrency market.

Discussing the US economy, former Coinbase CTO and a16z general partner Balaji Srinivasan writes, "We are in the phase of looting the treasury amidst the collapse of an empire. Bitcoin is the only available salvation from inflation and potential asset confiscation in the US, which could occur due to the unsustainable trajectory of government spending." According to Srinivasan's calculations, the US national debt has reached a record $34.5 trillion, increasing by 25% since 2020, and continues to grow by $1 trillion every 90 days. The US government spends $10 billion more daily than it receives. Given this, the former Coinbase CTO did not rule out that as the "financial reckoning" for such behaviour approaches, the "insatiable state" might consider the possibility of confiscating private assets.

"Private property will not be protected by the state in a bankrupt blue [Democratic] America. Any blockchain under Washington's control is vulnerable. Fortunately, we have digital gold. It is independent of the state and cannot be confiscated. Bitcoin maximalism will win. It will save us from state budgeting," believes the former CTO of Coinbase. He declined to specify when the "reckoning" would occur but reminded that Ray Dalio, Elon Musk, Larry Fink, and Stanley Druckenmiller have previously announced the inevitability of such a scenario.

Analysts at Matrixport, sharing Balaji Srinivasan's optimism about the global future of bitcoin, also suggest that a risk-reward analysis indicates that the coin's quotes may soon undergo a correction. "This bull market still has legs," Matrixport believes, "but the divergence between the decreasing RSI and high BTC prices could signal that bitcoin needs to consolidate before it can start rising in price again."

Investor and founder of MN Trading, Michael Van De Poppe, believes a market pullback of 20-30% is quite possible in the near term. He also noted that he has high expectations for altcoins, which have yet to reach record highs.

Raoul Pal, the founder of the investment company Real Vision, predicted the potential performance of bitcoin, ETH, and SOL. He suggested that the target mark for bitcoin in the foreseeable future is $250,000 per coin. The first cryptocurrency may exceed this projected level due to high demand for spot bitcoin ETFs. The upcoming April halving is also expected to increase demand for this cryptocurrency.

Raoul Pal is also bullish on Ethereum. Thanks to the utility of smart contracts, the value of this altcoin could rise to $17,000-$20,000. Currently, ETH is trading around $4,000, but unlike bitcoin, it has not yet surpassed its record – in November 2021, Ethereum reached a level of $4,856. The Real Vision founder believes that the altcoin's growth could be influenced by a strong correlation with bitcoin, anticipation of the launch of spot ETH ETFs, and the Dencun update.

The specialist forecasts that the price of Solana could range from $700 to $1,000, as the high performance of the blockchain will increase demand for this coin. In early November 2021, SOL reached a peak mark of $260, and the coin still has plenty of growth opportunities.

Last week, much attention was also paid to miners, not just individually, but in conjunction with the American economy. Bill Ackman, CEO of Pershing Square Capital, called bitcoin mining one of the reasons for inflation and the fall of the US dollar. "The rise in bitcoin prices leads to an increase in mining and energy consumption, raising the latter's cost and causing inflation and the dollar's decline. This stimulates demand for bitcoin, its mining, and energy consumption. The cycle continues, bitcoin goes into infinity, energy prices skyrocket, the economy collapses," the billionaire described his scenario, adding that this relationship "works both ways."

Taking an opposite viewpoint was another influencer – the aforementioned Pierre Rochard from Riot. He believes that the mining industry could experience exponential 10-fold growth, thanks to the active development of the US market and the country's surplus of electricity. His scenario does not foresee an economic collapse and sky-high energy prices.

Time will tell which of these experts is correct. However, according to analysts at Bernstein, mining company stocks remain the best proxy investments in bitcoin as the cryptocurrency moves towards the target mark of $150,000. In a note to clients, they point out that historically, miners' quotes have almost always outperformed bitcoin in terms of growth rate during a bull market. Since we are in the middle of the current cycle, every "weakness window" for digital gold miners is, in the experts' opinion, an opportunity to buy their stocks.

Bernstein claims that retail investors currently dominate this segment, while institutional investors largely avoid "bitcoin-proxy" investments, as they remain sceptical about cryptocurrencies. However, as the asset grows to new highs, analysts expect this category of investors' interest in miners' stocks to awaken and grow.

At the beginning of spring, bitcoin surpassed the Russian rouble in market capitalization and occupied the 14th position in the overall ranking of the largest currencies. Just a few days later, on 11 March 2024, bitcoin made another leap – rising above $72,000 per coin, it surpassed silver in market capitalization. The first cryptocurrency moved to the eighth spot in the ranking of the largest assets by this measure, crossing the $1.4 trillion mark.

As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, 15 March, after traders took profits, BTC/USD is trading around $68,200. The total market capitalization of the crypto market stands at $2.58 trillion ($2.60 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has risen from 81 to 83 points and is in the Extreme Greed zone. (It's worth noting that the historical maximum for this index was recorded at 95 points during the Bull Rally at the end of 2020).

NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 20, 2024, 02:16:50 PM
CryptoNews of the Week

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/20/J1Cf2.jpeg)

– Roger Ver, introducing his new book "The Hijacking of Bitcoin: The Hidden Story of BTC," announced that bitcoin has been captured by a group of insiders. According to this experienced investor, this development has altered the project's philosophy. Jeffrey Tucker, an economist, and the founder of the Brownstone Institute, who contributed to the book, lamented that the story it tells is tragic because the opportunity to change the world with bitcoin was stolen. Bitcoin could have liberated society, but it failed to do so.
Previously, Roger Ver had stated that he considers Ethereum more valuable, despite its lower market capitalisation, because the ETH project does much more for the widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies than bitcoin.

– According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of the first cryptocurrency is owned by various organisations, including government and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. Together, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. Around 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead the cryptocurrency market in terms of bitcoin volume, holding 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively.
Among public companies, MicroStrategy has emerged as the largest holder of bitcoins, with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, followed by Tesla and Coinbase Global in third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively.
In the realm of private companies, according to available information, Block.one leads in ownership levels with 164,000 BTC. Following it is the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is occupied by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.
In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among states, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.
Adding these figures to the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined BTC is unavailable to other private investors. This, to some extent, confirms the conclusion made by Roger Ver.

– Around 48% of voters who own digital assets plan to vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming U.S. presidential elections, according to a survey by Paradigm. Another 38% prefer the current President, Joe Biden, while 13% are undecided about their candidate choice. Additionally, 69% of respondents are dissatisfied with the current state of the country's financial system. 49% of those surveyed stated they do not trust either of the U.S. parties regarding digital asset issues.
The survey data indicates that 19% of registered American voters own digital assets, 7% of respondents own cryptocurrencies valued at over $1,000, and 1% own more than $10,000 worth of cryptocurrencies.

– A British court has ruled that Craig Wright is not Satoshi Nakamoto. The legal proceedings initiated by the Crypto Open Patent Alliance (COPA) against Wright began in 2021. The organisation filed a lawsuit against the businessman to prevent him from claiming intellectual property rights to bitcoin technology. The court has now delivered its verdict: "Firstly, Dr. Wright is not the author of the bitcoin white paper. Secondly, Wright is not the individual who acted under the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto from 2008 to 2011. Thirdly, he is not the person who created the bitcoin system. And fourthly, Wright is not the author of the original versions of the first cryptocurrency's software."
Furthermore, the court has suspended two other cases involving Wright – lawsuits against Coinbase and Block. It is possible that a restraining order will be issued to prevent Wright from ever claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, though a final decision on this matter has yet to be made.

– India's Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman, has taken a firm stance on bitcoin and other crypto-assets, stating that they cannot be considered real money. According to her, cryptocurrencies are primarily used for trading, speculation, and profit-making. They do not function as traditional currencies issued by central banks and thus thrive solely due to market manipulations.
Ms. Sitharaman highlighted that cryptocurrencies are still unregulated in India, and this issue has been raised at the G20 forum. The minister believes it is crucial for G20 member countries to establish a unified international regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies, which would help manage their risks.

– The Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) of Japan, with assets of approximately $1.5 trillion, will consider portfolio diversification options, including the inclusion of the leading cryptocurrency. This initiative is part of an exploration of innovative investment strategies and is a response to economic and social changes as well as rapid technological developments.
Currently, the GPIF invests in traditional assets such as domestic and foreign stocks and bonds, as well as alternative instruments like real estate.

– Analysts at Standard Chartered have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with Ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same date. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively.
The change in expectations is driven by the excitement around spot bitcoin ETFs and the sharp increase in the asset's price since January. The analysts justified their forecast based on the dynamics of gold following the approval of ETFs and the optimization of the ratio of the precious metal to its digital counterpart at 80% to 20%.
According to Standard Chartered experts, if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion, bitcoin could increase in value even more – up to $250,000. Actions by sovereign wealth funds could also accelerate growth rates. "We see a growing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," the analysts say.

– Dan Tapiero, CEO of the investment company 10T Holdings, has also mentioned a figure of $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential for a threefold increase from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Moreover, from the lows of the bear market to the peak of 2021, digital gold increased in value by 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 benchmark as a positive scenario.
"It's hard to set specific points and times in such matters. I think we will reach this [zone] within the next 18-24 months, maybe even sooner," Tapiero believes. "A reduction in supply during a rapid increase in demand for ETFs, along with the halving, indicates a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull everything else up with it."
The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" of approval for exchange-traded funds based on Ethereum. However, he found it difficult to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

– After reaching a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14th, bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, losing about 13%. Some experts do not rule out further temporary decreases. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is actually low compared to previous cycles, mainly due to the options market. Michael Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the bottom line is at $50,000, and the coin's price will never fall below it unless a dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is mainly supported by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policies of the US Federal Reserve. JPMorgan analysts have more cautious feelings towards BTC, stating that the halving is unlikely to be a bullish catalyst for the coin. According to their forecast, bitcoin could fall by 33% after this event.

– The artificial intelligence of OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach $100,000 on the eve of the halving, acknowledged this target as plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the current correction in no way affects the growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the probability of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

– BeInCrypto's editorial team discovered the origin of rumours claiming Vladimir Putin is Satoshi Nakamoto. It appears that Daniel Peña, also known as the "Trillion Dollar Man," an American businessman and founder of Quantum Leap Advantage, initiated them. His first statements linking the Russian President to cryptocurrency date back to 2019. Since then, the entrepreneur has repeatedly supported his theory. Peña believes that Putin benefits from the creation of bitcoin, as the cryptocurrency could undermine the position of the US dollar in the financial market and destabilize the American economy. Despite the lack of evidence for these claims, this theory has taken root and has become a meme over the years.
 

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #btcusd #ethusd #ltcusd #xrpusd #forex #forex_example #signals #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin #stock_market
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 23, 2024, 01:05:19 PM
Forex and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for March 25 - 29, 2024


EUR/USD: Switzerland Strengthens the Dollar

The key event of the past week was undoubtedly the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting of the US Federal Reserve on March 20. As expected, the American Central Bank unanimously decided to maintain the key interest rate at its highest level in 23 years, 5.50%, for the fifth consecutive meeting. Since the rate was anticipated, market participants were significantly more interested in the comments and forecasts of the Fed's leadership. The most important statement came from the head of the regulator, Jerome Powell, who mentioned the consideration of three stages of borrowing cost reduction this year, totalling 75 basis points (bps). The long-term rate forecast was raised from 2.50% to 2.60%.

In comments following the meeting, solid growth in the United States economy was noted. The GDP forecast for this year was increased from 1.4% to 2.1%, and for 2025 from 1.8% to 2.0%. The labour market also appears to be in good health, with unemployment at a low level. According to the new forecast, it could reach 4.0%, compared to the previously expected 4.1%. The number of new jobs created outside of the agriculture sector (NonFarm Payrolls) in February was 275K, significantly exceeding both the previous figure of 229K and the forecast of 198K.

Regarding inflation, while it has eased, it remains "elevated," as noted in the statement. Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for February showed a 3.2% increase on a year-over-year basis. Inflation is anticipated to settle at 2.4% by the end of 2024, with the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index expected to be at 2.6%. Previously, both figures were forecasted to be 2.4% in December.

The comments emphasized that the long-term objective is to bring inflation down to 2.0% while achieving maximum employment. Thus, the Federal Reserve will remain vigilant about inflationary risks. Adjustments to monetary policy parameters may be made if factors emerge that obstruct its objectives. These factors include, but are not limited to, the labor market situation, economic growth, inflation in the US, the state of the global economy, and international events.

As already mentioned, the principal scenario for 2024 includes three rate reductions of 25 basis points each. Nonetheless, members of the FOMC have not discounted the possibility of there being just two or even one reduction. A survey by Reuters found that 72 out of 108 economists, or two-thirds, anticipate the first rate cut to occur in June, with the subsequent ones expected in the fall of this year.

The stock market responded positively to the outcomes of the Federal Reserve's meeting. The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices all moved higher, a reaction not mirrored by the Dollar Index (DXY), as news of the beginning of monetary policy easing did not please investors. As a result, EUR/USD surged sharply. However, on March 21, the American currency recouped its losses after the Swiss National Bank (SNB) unexpectedly reduced its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 1.5% at its quarterly meeting, contrary to market expectations of maintaining the rate at 1.75%.

"The easing of monetary policy was made possible thanks to the effective combat against inflation over the last two and a half years," the SNB stated. "Inflation has been below 2% for several months and is within the range that corresponds to the definition of price stability. According to the latest forecast, inflation is expected to remain within this range in the coming years."

Thus, the SNB became the first major central bank to start easing its policy after a long cycle of rate increases due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Consequently, traders "forgot" about the Fed's rate cut signals and began buying dollars, as they currently remain the only high-yield currency with a low risk level.

Support for the dollar towards the end of the working week was also provided by the business activity data in the US published on March 21. The S&P Global Composite PMI index increased to 52.5 from 52.2, and while the PMI index for the services sector decreased from 52.3 to 51.7, it remained above the 50.0 threshold that separates economic growth from contraction. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia manufacturing sector business activity index exceeded forecasts, reaching 3.2, and the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week fell from 215K to 210K.

EUR/USD concluded the past five-day week at a mark of 1.0808. Regarding the forecast for the near future, as of the writing of this review on the evening of Friday, March 22, 50% of experts voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further decline of the pair. 20% sided with the euro, and 30% took a neutral stance. Among the oscillators on D1, only 15% are coloured green, 85% are coloured red, with a quarter of them indicating the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, the greens have 10%, while the reds hold an absolute majority of 90%. The nearest support for the pair is located in the zone of 1.0795-1.0800, followed by 1.0725, 1.0680-1.0695, 1.0620, 1.0495-1.0515, and 1.0450. Resistance zones are found in the areas of 1.0835-1.0865, 1.0900-1.0920, 1.0965-1.0980, 1.1015, 1.1050, and 1.1100-1.1140.

The upcoming trading week will be shorter than usual due to Good Friday in Catholic countries, where banks and stock exchanges will be closed. It will also be the last week of the month and the first quarter. Market participants will be summarizing the quarter, and there will be few important statistical releases. Nevertheless, notable in the calendar is Thursday, March 28, when data on retail sales in Germany will be released, as well as revised annual data on the US GDP and the volume of jobless claims. On Friday, March 29, despite the holiday, statistics on the consumer market in the United States will be released, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak.

GBP/USD: BoE Hawks Morph into Doves

Data on consumer inflation in the UK, released on Wednesday, March 20, a day ahead of the Bank of England (BoE) meeting, indicated a slight deceleration and fell a bit below expectations. The year-on-year CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.4%, against the anticipated 3.5%. February's core CPI, on an annual basis, dropped to 4.5% after three months of stability at 5.1%. Conversely, the CPI saw a month-on-month increase of 0.6% following a decline of the same magnitude in January, yet this increase still fell short of the market's 0.7% expectation. February saw producer purchase prices decrease by 0.4%, with a year-on-year loss of 2.7%, returning to levels seen in May 2022 due to decreases in energy, metals, and some agricultural product prices.

Just a few hours before the regulator's meeting, preliminary business activity data were also released, showing positive but mixed results. The Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, closely approaching the critical 50.0 mark (with a forecast of 47.8 and a previous value of 47.5). The services sector index, in contrast, dropped from 53.8 to 53.4, despite expectations that it would hold steady. Consequently, the Composite PMI edged down from 53.0 to 52.9, remaining within the growth zone of the economy.

Regarding the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday, March 21, as expected, the regulator kept the key interest rate for the pound unchanged at 5.25% for the fifth consecutive meeting. The Governor, Andrew Bailey, stated that the economy has not yet reached the stage where rates can be lowered but added that everything is moving in the "right direction."   

The surprise came when two members of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who had previously voted for a rate increase, reversed their position, leading to renewed selling of the pound. According to economists at Japan's MUFG Bank, the voting outcome "justifies an increased likelihood of an earlier rate cut than we had anticipated. [...] Whether the Bank of England makes the final decision in June or August remains an open question. We maintain our view that there will be a rate cut of 100 basis points this year." "The pound could suffer further in the short term if the market's conviction in a June rate cut strengthens, along with the potential magnitude of rate cuts for this year," the MUFG specialists added.

"Indeed, the Bank of England has taken another step towards reducing interest rates," echo their colleagues at Germany's Commerzbank. "But whether this will happen sooner than expected, simply because none of the policymakers voted for a rate increase, is not entirely clear yet." Commerzbank believes that "against the backdrop of the overall dovish sentiment triggered by the SNB's unexpected rate cut, the pound ended up on the losing side and became the second-worst currency. Also, depending on market sentiments, it has the chance to become one of the most vulnerable currencies."

Starting the past week at a level of 1.2734, GBP/USD concluded it at 1.2599. Analyst opinions on its near-term direction were split: half (50%) voted for the pair's decline, 25% for its rise, and 25% maintained neutrality. The indicator readings on D1 are exactly the same as for EUR/USD. Among oscillators, only 15% look north, 85% south, with a quarter of them signalling the pair is oversold. For trend indicators, 10% recommend buying, and 90% selling. Should the pair move southward, it will encounter support levels and zones at 1.2575, 1.2500-1.2535, 1.2450, 1.2375, 1.2330, 1.2085-1.2210, 1.2110, 1.2035-1.2070. In the event of an upward movement, resistance will be met at levels 1.2635, 1.2730-1.2755, 1.2800-1.2820, 1.2880-1.2900, 1.2940, 1.3000, and 1.3140.

No significant events related to the economy of the United Kingdom are scheduled for the upcoming week. Traders should also bear in mind that March 29 is a public holiday in the country due to Good Friday.

continued below...
Title: Re: Daily Market Analysis from NordFX
Post by: Stan NordFX on March 23, 2024, 01:07:22 PM
USD/JPY: How the BoJ Sank the Yen

In theory, if the interest rate rises, the currency strengthens. But that's just in theory. Reality can differ significantly, as demonstrated by the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) meeting on Tuesday, March 19.

Until that point, the BoJ had been the only central bank in the world to maintain a negative interest rate level of -0.1% since February 2016. Now, for the first time in 17 years, the regulator raised it to a range of 0.0-0.1% per annum. It also abandoned control over the yield of ten-year government bonds (YCC). As media reports, this move "represents a departure from the most aggressive and unconventional monetary easing policy we have seen in modern history." Yet, following this momentous decision, instead of appreciating, the yen ... plummeted, and USD/JPY reached a high of 151.85. Analysts believe this happened because each of these central bank actions met market expectations and had already been priced in.

Data on inflation in Japan for February, published towards the end of the workweek, offered some support to the Japanese currency. The country's Statistical Bureau reported that the annual national Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8%, up from 2.2% previously. As a result, investors concluded that the persistence of price pressure above the target level of 2.0% would allow the Bank of Japan to maintain interest rates at a positive level.

However, maintaining rates does not mean increasing them. And as economists from ING, the largest banking group in the Netherlands, wrote, the yen's position depends more on the Federal Reserve's rate cuts than on a rate hike by the BoJ. They stated: "It will be difficult for the yen to sustainably strengthen beyond volatility around the rate hike until rates in the US are lowered."

The yen received another, but very weak, support from growing speculations about possible intervention by the Japanese government in the currency sphere, in simpler terms, about currency interventions. Japan's Finance Minister, Shunichi Suzuki, did declare that currency movements should be stable and that he is closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations. However, these were merely words, not concrete actions, thus they didn't significantly aid the national currency. As a result, the week concluded with the pair marking the final note at 151.43.

Regarding the near future of USD/JPY, the bearish camp for the pair comprises 50% of experts, 40% remain undecided, and 10% voted for further strengthening of the US currency. Technical analysis tools seem to be unaware of rumours about possible currency interventions. Consequently, all 100% of trend indicators and oscillators on D1 are pointing upwards, with 20% of the latter in the overbought zone. The nearest support levels are found at 150.85, 149.70, 148.40, 147.30-147.60, 146.50, 145.90, 144.90-145.30, 143.40-143.75, 142.20, and 140.25-140.60. Resistance levels and zones are located at 151.85-152.00, 153.15, and 156.25.

On Friday, March 29, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) values for the Tokyo region will be published. Besides this, no other significant events related to the Japanese economy are scheduled for the coming days.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES: Bitcoin – The Calm Before the Halving

(https://talkimg.com/images/2024/03/23/J8bpa.jpeg)

After bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $73,743 on March 14, a wave of selloffs and profit-taking by short-term speculators followed. BTC/USD sharply retreated, losing approximately 17.5%. A local minimum was recorded at $60,778, after which the leading cryptocurrency, in anticipation of the halving, began to gain momentum again.

It's worth recalling that a halving is an event that occurs approximately every four years, after another 210,000 blocks have been mined, and results in the mining reward for a new block in the bitcoin blockchain being cut in half. This naturally raises the question: why is this done? The halving is designed as a mechanism to combat inflation. As miners' rewards decrease, fewer new coins are produced with each round. This is intended to maintain a scarcity of bitcoin in the market and positively impact the token's price from a supply and demand perspective.

The total issuance of bitcoin is capped at 21 million coins. As of December 2023, miners have already extracted 19.5 million coins, which is nearly 93% of the total volume. Halvings will continue until the last bitcoin is mined, which is forecasted to occur sometime between 2040 and 2048. In 2040 (the 8th halving), miners' rewards will be 0.1953125 BTC, and in 2048 (the 10th halving) – 0.048828125 BTC. After this, miners will earn income solely from transaction fees. The upcoming, fourth halving is most likely to take place on April 20 this year, with the reward for mined blocks decreasing from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Thanks to the hype surrounding spot bitcoin ETFs and the FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) effect in anticipation of the halving, a certain scarcity of the main cryptocurrency is already observable. According to Bitcointreasuries, a significant portion of BTC is owned by state and private investment companies, governments, exchange and investment funds. In total, they hold approximately 12% of the total volume of bitcoins. About 10% is stored on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, and another 8.09% belongs to accounts that have been inactive for many years. Adding to these figures the share of the asset attributed to bitcoin's founder, Satoshi Nakamoto (4.76%), it can be concluded that about 35% of mined coins are already unavailable to other private investors.

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, iShares Bitcoin Trust, and Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund lead in terms of bitcoin ownership volumes with 380,241 BTC, 230,617 BTC, and 132,571 BTC, respectively. MicroStrategy has become the largest holder of bitcoins among public companies with 205,000 BTC on its balance sheet. Marathon Digital holds the second position with 15,741 BTC, while Tesla and Coinbase Global share the third and fourth places with 9,720 BTC and 9,480 BTC, respectively. Among other, non-public, private companies, Block.one leads in ownership level with 164,000 BTC, according to available information. It is followed by the MTGOX exchange with a balance of 141,686 BTC. Stablecoin issuer Tether owns 66,465 BTC. The fourth position is taken by the BitMEX exchange with 57,672 BTC.

In the ranking of bitcoin ownership among countries, the USA leads with 215,000 BTC, followed by China with 190,000 BTC, the UK with 61,000 BTC, and Germany with 50,000 BTC.

Analysts at Standard Chartered Bank have revised their bitcoin price target for the end of 2024 from $100,000 to $150,000, with ethereum potentially reaching $8,000 by the same period. By the end of 2025, the first and second cryptocurrencies could appreciate to $200,000 and $14,000, respectively. The specialists justify their forecast by the dynamics of gold following the approval of bitcoin ETFs and the optimization of the precious metal to its digital counterpart in an 80% to 20% ratio.

According to Standard Chartered experts, bitcoin could appreciate further – up to $250,000 – if inflows into ETFs reach $75 billion. Sovereign investment funds' actions could also accelerate growth rates. "We see an increasing likelihood that major reserve managers might announce bitcoin purchases in 2024," say the bank's analysts.

Dan Tapiero, CEO of investment firm 10T Holdings, mentioned a similar figure – $200,000. "I don't think it's that crazy," he stated. According to the financier's calculations, the potential to triple from the current price roughly corresponds to the percentage difference between the peaks of 2017 and 2021. Furthermore, from the bear market lows to the 2021 peak, digital gold increased in value 20 times. This suggests a $300,000 target as a positive scenario.

"It's hard to pinpoint exact markers and timing in these matters. I think we will reach that [zone] within the next 18-24 months, perhaps even sooner," Tapiero believes. "The supply cut during the rapid increase in demand for ETFs along with the halving indicate a significant growth potential. I think the first cryptocurrency will pull the rest along with it." The CEO of 10T Holdings also noted "good chances" for the approval of ETFs based on Ethereum. However, he hesitated to say whether these ETFs would be registered in May or if it would happen later.

OpenAI's ChatGPT, when asked whether the BTC price could reach the $100,000 mark before the halving, deemed this target plausible. According to the AI's calculations, the recent correction does not affect growth prospects and only confirms the inaccuracy of short-term forecasts. ChatGPT estimated the probability of reaching $100,000 at 40%, while the likelihood of hitting the $85,000 mark was assessed at 60%.

As of the writing of this review, on the evening of Friday, March 22, BTC/USD is trading around $63,000. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has decreased to $2.39 trillion (from $2.58 trillion a week ago). The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has dropped from 83 to 75 points, moving from the Extreme Greed zone to the Greed zone.

Despite the recent halt in bitcoin's decline, some experts do not rule out the possibility that BTC/USD could take another dip southward. For instance, Kris Marszalek, CEO of Crypto.com, believes that the current volatility of BTC is still low compared to previous cycles. This implies that with an increase in volatility, not only new highs but also new lows could be set.

Analysts at JPMorgan believe that bitcoin could fall by 33% after the halving. Meanwhile, Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, is confident that the floor is at $50,000, and the price of the coin will never fall below that level unless some dramatic event occurs. According to him, bitcoin's growth is primarily driven by investors' insatiable appetite for the token, rather than macroeconomic factors such as the policy of the US Federal Reserve. This was evidenced by the fact that the price of bitcoin hardly noticed the Federal Reserve's meeting on March 20.


NordFX Analytical Group
 

Notice: These materials are not investment recommendations or guidelines for working in financial markets and are intended for informational purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can result in a complete loss of deposited funds.

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